Paradoxical Physiological Transitions from Aging to Late Life in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Quach, Julie; Mueller, Laurence D.; Rose, Michael R.

2012-01-01

Abstract In a variety of organisms, adulthood is divided into aging and late life, where aging is a period of exponentially increasing mortality rates and late life is a period of roughly plateaued mortality rates. In this study we used ∼57,600 Drosophila melanogaster from six replicate populations to examine the physiological transitions from aging to late life in four functional characters that decline during aging: desiccation resistance, starvation resistance, time spent in motion, and negative geotaxis. Time spent in motion and desiccation resistance declined less quickly in late life compared to their patterns of decline during aging. Negative geotaxis declined at a faster rate in late life compared to its rate of decline during aging. These results yield two key findings: (1) Late-life physiology is distinct from the physiology of aging, in that there is not simply a continuation of the physiological trends which characterize aging; and (2) late life physiology is complex, in that physiological characters vary with respect to their stabilization, deceleration, or acceleration in the transition from aging to late life. These findings imply that a correct understanding of adulthood requires identifying and appropriately characterizing physiology during properly delimited late-life periods as well as aging periods. PMID:22233126

Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehlert, Dana; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

In the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global warming to this target after exceeding it by artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is possible. One important aspect is the reversibility of ocean heat uptake and associated sea level rise, which have very long (centennial to millennial) response timescales. In this study the response of sea level rise due to thermal expansion to a 1 % yearly increase of atmospheric CO2 up to a quadrupling of the pre-industrial concentration followed by a 1 % yearly decline back to the pre-industrial CO2 concentration is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We find that global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to pre-industrial levels for over 1000 years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. This finding is independent of the strength of vertical sub-grid-scale ocean mixing implemented in the model. Furthermore, GMTSL rises faster than it declines in response to a symmetric rise and decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration partly because the deep ocean continues to warm for centuries after atmospheric CO2 returns to the pre-industrial concentration. Both GMTSL rise and decline rates increase with increasing vertical ocean mixing. Exceptions from this behaviour arise if the overturning circulations in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean intensify beyond pre-industrial levels in model versions with lower vertical mixing, which leads to rapid cooling of the deep ocean.

Declining sleep quality among nurses: a population-based four-year longitudinal study on the transition from nursing education to working life.

PubMed

Hasson, Dan; Gustavsson, Petter

2010-12-08

Several studies have established impaired sleep is a common problem among nurses. Overworked, fatigued and stressed nurses are at a higher risk of making mistakes that threaten patient safety as well as their own health. The aim of the present study was to longitudinally monitor the development of sleep quality in nurses, starting from the last semester at the university, with three subsequent annual follow-ups once the nurses had entered working life. Nationwide, longitudinal questionnaire study of nursing students and newly qualified nurses in Sweden. The results imply a continuous decline in sleep quality among nurses during the three years of follow-up, starting from their last semester of nursing education and continuing for three years into their working life. The most pronounced short-term decline in sleep quality seems to occur in the transition between student life and working life. This finding is important since it may affect the quality of care and the health of nurses negatively.

Tobacco Use. Adolescent Health Highlight. Publication #2012-33

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphey, David; Barry, Megan; Vaughn, Brigitte; Terzian, Mary

2012-01-01

Cigarette smoking has steadily declined among adolescents during the last fifteen years, although use of some tobacco products, like cigars, has seen recent increases. However, large numbers of teens continue to use tobacco products. This "Adolescent Health Highlight" presents key research findings; describes prevalence and trends; illustrates…

Population and geographic range dynamics: implications for conservation planning

PubMed Central

Mace, Georgina M.; Collen, Ben; Fuller, Richard A.; Boakes, Elizabeth H.

2010-01-01

Continuing downward trends in the population sizes of many species, in the conservation status of threatened species, and in the quality, extent and connectedness of habitats are of increasing concern. Identifying the attributes of declining populations will help predict how biodiversity will be impacted and guide conservation actions. However, the drivers of biodiversity declines have changed over time and average trends in abundance or distributional change hide significant variation among species. While some populations are declining rapidly, the majority remain relatively stable and others are increasing. Here we dissect out some of the changing drivers of population and geographic range change, and identify biological and geographical correlates of winners and losers in two large datasets covering local population sizes of vertebrates since 1970 and the distributions of Galliform birds over the last two centuries. We find weak evidence for ecological and biological traits being predictors of local decline in range or abundance, but stronger evidence for the role of local anthropogenic threats and environmental change. An improved understanding of the dynamics of threat processes and how they may affect different species will help to guide better conservation planning in a continuously changing world. PMID:20980321

Trends in death rates among U.S. adults with and without diabetes between 1997 and 2006: findings from the National Health Interview Survey.

PubMed

Gregg, Edward W; Cheng, Yiling J; Saydah, Sharon; Cowie, Catherine; Garfield, Sanford; Geiss, Linda; Barker, Lawrence

2012-06-01

To determine whether all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) death rates declined between 1997 and 2006, a period of continued advances in treatment approaches and risk factor control, among U.S. adults with and without diabetes. We compared 3-year death rates of four consecutive nationally representative samples (1997-1998, 1999-2000, 2001-2002, and 2003-2004) of U.S. adults aged 18 years and older using data from the National Health Interview Surveys linked to National Death Index. Among diabetic adults, the CVD death rate declined by 40% (95% CI 23-54) and all-cause mortality declined by 23% (10-35) between the earliest and latest samples. There was no difference in the rates of decline in mortality between diabetic men and women. The excess CVD mortality rate associated with diabetes (i.e., compared with nondiabetic adults) decreased by 60% (from 5.8 to 2.3 CVD deaths per 1,000) while the excess all-cause mortality rate declined by 44% (from 10.8 to 6.1 deaths per 1,000). Death rates among both U.S. men and women with diabetes declined substantially between 1997 and 2006, reducing the absolute difference between adults with and without diabetes. These encouraging findings, however, suggest that diabetes prevalence is likely to rise in the future if diabetes incidence is not curtailed.

Economic Implications of Japan's Ageing Population: A Macro-economic Demographic Modelling Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogawa, Naohiro

1982-01-01

This study discusses the impact of the aging of the Japanese population upon various socioeconomic factors. Major findings are that the rate of real gross national product growth will decline continuously and that more financial resources will be required for government social security programs. (Editor/CT)

Building a Champagne Network on a Beer Budget

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dolan, Jon; Pederson, Curt

2004-01-01

Oregon State University's demand for bandwidth to support scientific collaboration and research continues to grow exponentially, while state funding declines due to hard economic times. The challenge faced by these authors was to find creative yet fiscally responsible ways to meet OSU's bandwidth demands. Looking at their options for high-capacity…

Prospective randomized trial to assess effects of continuing hormone therapy on cerebral function in postmenopausal women at risk for dementia.

PubMed

Rasgon, Natalie L; Geist, Cheri L; Kenna, Heather A; Wroolie, Tonita E; Williams, Katherine E; Silverman, Daniel H S

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the effects of estrogen-based hormone therapy (HT) on regional cerebral metabolism in postmenopausal women (mean age = 58, SD = 5) at risk for development of dementia. The prospective clinical trial design included pre- and post-intervention neuroimaging of women randomized to continue (HT+) or discontinue (HT-) therapy following an average of 10 years of use. The primary outcome measure was change in brain metabolism during the subsequent two years, as assessed with fluorodeoxyglucose-18 positron emission tomography (FDG-PET). Longitudinal FDG-PET data were available for 45 study completers. Results showed that women randomized to continue HT experienced relative preservation of frontal and parietal cortical metabolism, compared with women randomized to discontinue HT. Women who discontinued 17-β estradiol (17βE)-based HT, as well as women who continued conjugated equine estrogen (CEE)-based HT, exhibited significant decline in metabolism of the precuneus/posterior cingulate cortical (PCC) area. Significant decline in PCC metabolism was additionally seen in women taking concurrent progestins (with either 17βE or CEE). Together, these findings suggest that among postmenopausal subjects at risk for developing dementia, regional cerebral cortical metabolism is relatively preserved for at least two years in women randomized to continue HT, compared with women randomized to discontinue HT. In addition, continuing unopposed 17βE therapy is associated specifically with preservation of metabolism in PCC, known to undergo the most significant decline in the earliest stages of Alzheimer's disease. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00097058.

Decline of traditional rice farming constrains the recovery of the endangered Asian crested ibis (Nipponia nippon).

PubMed

Sun, Yiwen; Wang, Tiejun; Skidmore, Andrew K; Wang, Qi; Ding, Changqing

2015-12-01

Traditional agriculture benefits a rich diversity of plants and animals. The winter-flooded rice fields in the Qinling Mountains, China, are the last refuge for the endangered Asian crested ibis (Nipponia nippon), and intensive efforts have been made to protect this anthropogenic habitat. Analyses of multi-temporal satellite data indicate that winter-flooded rice fields have been continuously reduced across the current range of crested ibis during the past two decades. The rate of loss of these fields in the core-protected areas has unexpectedly increased to a higher level than that in non-protected areas in the past decade. The best fit (R (2) = 0.87) numerical response model of the crested ibis population shows that a reduction of winter-flooded rice fields decreases population growth and predicts that the population growth will be constrained by the decline of traditional winter-flooded rice fields in the coming decades. Our findings suggest that the decline of traditional rice farming is likely to continue to pose a threat to the long-term survival and recovery of the crested ibis population in China.

Does conservation on farmland contribute to halting the biodiversity decline?

PubMed

Kleijn, David; Rundlöf, Maj; Scheper, Jeroen; Smith, Henrik G; Tscharntke, Teja

2011-09-01

Biodiversity continues to decline, despite the implementation of international conservation conventions and measures. To counteract biodiversity loss, it is pivotal to know how conservation actions affect biodiversity trends. Focussing on European farmland species, we review what is known about the impact of conservation initiatives on biodiversity. We argue that the effects of conservation are a function of conservation-induced ecological contrast, agricultural land-use intensity and landscape context. We find that, to date, only a few studies have linked local conservation effects to national biodiversity trends. It is therefore unknown how the extensive European agri-environmental budget for conservation on farmland contributes to the policy objectives to halt biodiversity decline. Based on this review, we identify new research directions addressing this important knowledge gap. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finding New Ways to Reach Older Students: Creating a Social Media Marketing Plan for Professional and Continuing Higher Education Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Melchiorre, Marilyn Martin; Johnson, Scott A.

2017-01-01

Although traditional student enrollment is declining, the nontraditional segment of students is growing. This enrollment pattern will require recruitment strategies that speak directly to the adult learners. There is robust adoption of social media use by individuals and by organizations for marketing purposes. Social media marketing includes…

The effect of changes in habitat conditions on the movement of juvenile Snail Kites Rostrhamus sociabilis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowling, Andrea C.; Martin, Julien; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2012-01-01

The degradation of habitats due to human activities is a major topic of interest for the conservation and management of wild populations. There is growing evidence that the Florida Everglades ecosystem continues to suffer from habitat degradation. After a period of recovery in the 1990s, the Snail Kite Rostrhamus sociabilis population suffered a substantial decline in 2001 and has not recovered since. Habitat degradation has been suggested as one of the primary reasons for this lack of recovery. As a consequence of the continued degradation of the Everglades, we hypothesized that this would have led to increased movement of juvenile Kites over time, as a consequence of the need to find more favourable habitat. We used multistate mark-recapture models to compare between-site movement probabilities of juvenile Snail Kites in the 1990s (1992–95; which corresponds to the period before the decline) and 2000s (2003–06; after the decline). Our analyses were based on an extensive radiotelemetry study (266 birds tracked monthly over the entire state of Florida for a total period of 6 years) and considered factors such as sex and age of marked individuals. There was evidence of increased movement of juvenile Snail Kites during the post-decline period from most of the wetland regions used historically by Kites. Higher movement rates may contribute to an increase in the probability of mortality of young individuals and could contribute to the observed declines.

Predicting declines in perceived relationship continuity using practice deprivation scores: a longitudinal study in primary care.

PubMed

Levene, Louis S; Baker, Richard; Walker, Nicola; Williams, Christopher; Wilson, Andrew; Bankart, John

2018-06-01

Increased relationship continuity in primary care is associated with better health outcomes, greater patient satisfaction, and fewer hospital admissions. Greater socioeconomic deprivation is associated with lower levels of continuity, as well as poorer health outcomes. To investigate whether deprivation scores predicted variations in the decline over time of patient-perceived relationship continuity of care, after adjustment for practice organisational and population factors. An observational study in 6243 primary care practices with more than one GP, in England, using a longitudinal multilevel linear model, 2012-2017 inclusive. Patient-perceived relationship continuity was calculated using two questions from the GP Patient Survey. The effect of deprivation on the linear slope of continuity over time was modelled, adjusting for nine confounding variables (practice population and organisational factors). Clustering of measurements within general practices was adjusted for by using a random intercepts and random slopes model. Descriptive statistics and univariable analyses were also undertaken. Relationship continuity declined by 27.5% between 2012 and 2017, and at all deprivation levels. Deprivation scores from 2012 did not predict variations in the decline of relationship continuity at practice level, after accounting for the effects of organisational and population confounding variables, which themselves did not predict, or weakly predicted with very small effect sizes, the decline of continuity. Cross-sectionally, continuity and deprivation were negatively correlated within each year. The decline in relationship continuity of care has been marked and widespread. Measures to maximise continuity will need to be feasible for individual practices with diverse population and organisational characteristics. © British Journal of General Practice 2018.

Happenstance and compromise: a gendered analysis of students' computing degree course selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Catherine

2010-12-01

The number of students choosing to study computing at university continues to decline this century, with an even sharper decline in female students. This article presents the results of a series of interviews with university students studying computing courses in Australia that uncovered the influence of happenstance and compromise on course choice. This investigation provides an insight into the contributing factors into the continued downturn of student diversity in computing bachelor degree courses. Many females interviewed made decisions based on happenstance, many males interviewed had chosen computing as a compromise course, and family helped in the decision-making to a large degree in both genders. The major implication from this investigation is the finding that students of both genders appear to be socialised away from this discipline, which is perceived as a support or insurance skill, not a career in itself, in all but the most technical-oriented (usually male) student.

Feral Pigs, Introduced Mosquitoes, and the Decline of Hawai'i's Native Birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaPointe, Dennis A.

2006-01-01

The introduction of mosquitoes, avian pox, and avian malaria to the Hawaiian Islands has had a profound effect on the geographical distribution and population number of highly susceptible Hawaiian honeycreepers, and likely contributed to the extinction of several species. While the mosquito vector (disease-carrier) is most closely associated with human activity, in remote Hawaiian rain forests, feral pigs may be pivotally important to the disease system. Since 1991, USGS scientists have taken a leadership position in identifying the role these diseases continue to play in the decline and extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds and in finding ways to mitigate their impacts.

Age-related decline in ovarian follicle stocks differ between chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and humans.

PubMed

Cloutier, Christina T; Coxworth, James E; Hawkes, Kristen

2015-02-01

Similarity in oldest parturitions in humans and great apes suggests that we maintain ancestral rates of ovarian aging. Consistent with that hypothesis, previous counts of primordial follicles in postmortem ovarian sections from chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) showed follicle stock decline at the same rate that human stocks decline across the same ages. Here, we correct that finding with a chimpanzee sample more than three times larger than the previous one, which also allows comparison into older ages. Analyses show depletion rates similar until about age 35, but after 35, the human counts continue to fall with age, while the change is much less steep in chimpanzees. This difference implicates likely effects on ovarian dynamics from other physiological systems that are senescing at different rates, and, potentially, different perimenopausal experience for chimpanzees and humans.

Ten Reasons to Still Keep the Focus on Teen Childbearing. Research Brief, Publication #2009-10

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holcombe, Emily; Peterson, Kristen; Manlove, Jennifer; Scarupa, Harriet J., Ed.

2009-01-01

In 2002, Child Trends drew on statistics and research findings to produce a report called "Ten Reasons to Keep the Focus on Teen Childbearing." That report took note of the steady decline in the nation's teenage pregnancy and childbearing rates, beginning in 1991, while citing multiple reasons to continue to be concerned about teen childbearing.…

Sensitivity of Terrestrial Water and Energy Budgets to CO2-Physiological Forcing: An Investigation Using an Offline Land Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalakrishnan, Ranjith; Bala, Govindsamy; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Cao, Long; Nemani, Ramakrishna; Ravindranath, N. H.

2011-01-01

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) influence climate by suppressing canopy transpiration in addition to its well-known greenhouse gas effect. The decrease in plant transpiration is due to changes in plant physiology (reduced opening of plant stomata). Here, we quantify such changes in water flux for various levels of CO2 concentrations using the National Center for Atmospheric Research s (NCAR) Community Land Model. We find that photosynthesis saturates after 800 ppmv (parts per million, by volume) in this model. However, unlike photosynthesis, canopy transpiration continues to decline at about 5.1% per 100 ppmv increase in CO2 levels. We also find that the associated reduction in latent heat flux is primarily compensated by increased sensible heat flux. The continued decline in canopy transpiration and subsequent increase in sensible heat flux at elevated CO2 levels implies that incremental warming associated with the physiological effect of CO2 will not abate at higher CO2 concentrations, indicating important consequences for the global water and carbon cycles from anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Keywords: CO2-physiological effect, CO2-fertilization, canopy transpiration, water cycle, runoff, climate change 1.

Accelerated White Matter Aging in Schizophrenia: Role of White Matter Blood Perfusion

PubMed Central

Chiappelli, Joshua; McMahon, Robert; Muellerklein, Florian; Wijtenburg, S. Andrea; White, Michael G.; Rowland, Laura M.; Hong, L. Elliot

2014-01-01

Elevated rate of age-related decline in white matter integrity, indexed by fractional anisotropy (FA) from diffusion tensor imaging, was reported in patients with schizophrenia. Its etiology is unknown. We hypothesized that a decline of blood perfusion to the white matter may underlie the accelerated age-related reduction in FA in schizophrenia. Resting white matter perfusion and FA were collected using pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling and high-angular-resolution diffusion tensor imaging, respectively, in 50 schizophrenia patients and 70 controls (age=18-63 years). Main outcome measures were the diagnosis-by-age interaction on whole-brain white matter perfusion, and FA. Significant age-related decline in brain white matter perfusion and FA were present in both groups. Age-by-diagnosis interaction was significant for FA (p<0.001) but not white matter perfusion. Age-by-diagnosis interaction for FA values remained significant even after accounting for age-related decline in perfusion. Therefore, we replicated the finding of an increased rate of age-related white matter FA decline in schizophrenia, and observed a significant age-related decline in white matter blood perfusion, although the latter did not contribute to the accelerated age-related decline in FA. The results suggest that factors other than reduced perfusion account for the accelerated age-related decline in white matter integrity in schizophrenia. PMID:24680326

Spatio-temporal Organization During Ventricular Fibrillation in the Human Heart.

PubMed

Robson, Jinny; Aram, Parham; Nash, Martyn P; Bradley, Chris P; Hayward, Martin; Paterson, David J; Taggart, Peter; Clayton, Richard H; Kadirkamanathan, Visakan

2018-06-01

In this paper, we present a novel approach to quantify the spatio-temporal organization of electrical activation during human ventricular fibrillation (VF). We propose three different methods based on correlation analysis, graph theoretical measures and hierarchical clustering. Using the proposed approach, we quantified the level of spatio-temporal organization during three episodes of VF in ten patients, recorded using multi-electrode epicardial recordings with 30 s coronary perfusion, 150 s global myocardial ischaemia and 30 s reflow. Our findings show a steady decline in spatio-temporal organization from the onset of VF with coronary perfusion. We observed transient increases in spatio-temporal organization during global myocardial ischaemia. However, the decline in spatio-temporal organization continued during reflow. Our results were consistent across all patients, and were consistent with the numbers of phase singularities. Our findings show that the complex spatio-temporal patterns can be studied using complex network analysis.

Effects of Percutaneous LVAD Support on Right Ventricular Load and Adaptation.

PubMed

Yourshaw, Jeffrey P; Mishra, Prabodh; Armstrong, M Christopher; Ramu, Bhavadharini; Craig, Michael L; Van Bakel, Adrian B; Steinberg, Daniel H; DiSalvo, Thomas G; Tedford, Ryan J; Houston, Brian A

2018-04-30

Both operative and hemodynamic mechanisms have been implicated in right heart failure (RHF) following surgical left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation. We investigated the effects of percutaneous LVAD (pLVAD; Impella®, Abiomed) support on right ventricular (RV) load and adaptation. We reviewed all patients receiving a pLVAD for cardiogenic shock at our institution between July 2014 and April 2017, including only those with pre- and post-pLVAD invasive hemodynamic measurements. Hemodynamic data was recorded immediately prior to pLVAD implantation and up to 96 h post-implantation. Twenty-five patients were included. Cardiac output increased progressively during pLVAD support. PAWP improved early post-pLVAD but did not further improve during continued support. Markers of RV adaptation (right ventricular stroke work index, right atrial pressure (RAP), and RAP to pulmonary artery wedge pressure ratio (RAP:PAWP)) were unchanged acutely implant but progressively improved during continued pLVAD support. Total RV load (pulmonary effective arterial elastance; E A ) and resistive RV load (pulmonary vascular resistance; PVR) both declined progressively. The relationship between RV load and RV adaptation (E A /RAP and E A /RAP:PAWP) was constant throughout. Median vasoactive-inotrope score declined after pLVAD placement and continued to decline throughout support. Percutaneous LVAD support in patients with cardiogenic shock did not acutely worsen RV adaptation, in contrast to previously described hemodynamic effects of surgically implanted durable LVADs. Further, RV load progressively declined during support, and the noted RV adaptation improvement was load-dependent as depicted by constant E A /RA and E A /RAP:PAWP relationships. These findings further implicate the operative changes associated with surgical LVAD implantation in early RHF following durable LVAD.

Trends and the Economic Effect of Asbestos Bans and Decline in Asbestos Consumption and Production Worldwide

PubMed Central

Allen, Lucy P.; Baez, Jorge; Stern, Mary Elizabeth C.

2018-01-01

Although some countries have reduced asbestos consumption and instituted bans, other countries continue to produce and consume asbestos even as asbestos-related deaths mount and the associated societal costs are high. Asbestos production and consumption has declined globally; the number of bans has increased; and the speed at which countries have tapered off consumption has increased. Using country-level data, we study the economic impact of historical changes in the production and use of asbestos. We compare changes in gross domestic product (GDP) following the enactment of asbestos bans. We do not find any significant effect on GDP following an asbestos ban. In a regional case study, we compare changes in GDP and employment with changes in asbestos production. Regional-level data revealed a temporary employment decline at the local level that was then reversed. PMID:29547510

Optimal control applied to a model for species augmentation.

PubMed

Bodine, Erin N; Gross, Louis J; Lenhart, Suzanne

2008-10-01

Species augmentation is a method of reducing species loss via augmenting declining or threatened populations with individuals from captive-bred or stable, wild populations. In this paper, we develop a differential equations model and optimal control formulation for a continuous time augmentation of a general declining population. We find a characterization for the optimal control and show numerical results for scenarios of different illustrative parameter sets. The numerical results provide considerably more detail about the exact dynamics of optimal augmentation than can be readily intuited. The work and results presented in this paper are a first step toward building a general theory of population augmentation, which accounts for the complexities inherent in many conservation biology applications.

Disparities in Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Declining Heart Disease Mortality by Race and Sex in the United States, 1973-2010.

PubMed

Vaughan, Adam S; Quick, Harrison; Pathak, Elizabeth B; Kramer, Michael R; Casper, Michele

2015-12-15

Examining small-area differences in the strength of declining heart disease mortality by race and sex provides important context for current racial and geographic disparities and identifies localities that could benefit from targeted interventions. We identified and described temporal trends in declining county-level heart disease mortality by race, sex, and geography between 1973 and 2010. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, we estimated age-adjusted mortality with diseases of the heart listed as the underlying cause for 3099 counties. County-level percentage declines were calculated by race and sex for 3 time periods (1973-1985, 1986-1997, 1998-2010). Strong declines were statistically faster or no different than the total national decline in that time period. We observed county-level race-sex disparities in heart disease mortality trends. Continual (from 1973 to 2010) strong declines occurred in 73.2%, 44.6%, 15.5%, and 17.3% of counties for white men, white women, black men, and black women, respectively. Delayed (1998-2010) strong declines occurred in 15.4%, 42.0%, 75.5%, and 76.6% of counties for white men, white women, black men, and black women, respectively. Counties with the weakest patterns of decline were concentrated in the South. Since 1973, heart disease mortality has declined substantially for these race-sex groups. Patterns of decline differed by race and geography, reflecting potential disparities in national and local drivers of these declines. Better understanding of racial and geographic disparities in the diffusion of heart disease prevention and treatment may allow us to find clues to progress toward racial and geographic equity in heart disease mortality. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Trajectories of age-related cognitive decline and potential associated factors of cognitive function in senior citizens of Beijing.

PubMed

Li, He; Lv, Chenlong; Zhang, Ting; Chen, Kewei; Chen, Chuansheng; Gai, Guozhong; Hu, Liangping; Wang, Yongyan; Zhang, Zhanjun

2014-01-01

With a longer life expectancy and an increased prevalence of neurodegenerative diseases, investigations on trajectories of cognitive aging have become exciting and promising. This study aimed to estimate the patterns of age-related cognitive decline and the potential associated factors of cognitive function in community-dwelling residents of Beijing, China. In this study, 1248 older adults aged 52-88 years [including 175 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects] completed a battery of neuropsychological scales. The personal information, including demographic information, medical history, eating habits, lifestyle regularity and leisure activities, was also collected. All cognitive function exhibited an agerelated decline in normal volunteers. Piece-wise linear fitting results suggested that performance on the Auditory Verbal Learning Test remained stable until 58 years of age and continued to decline thereafter. The decline in processing speed and executive function began during the early 50's. Scores on visual-spatial and language tests declined after 66 years of age. The decline stage of the general mental status ranged from 63 to 70 years of age. However, the MCI group did not exhibit an obvious age-related decline in most cognitive tests. Multivariate linear regression analyses indicated that education, gender, leisure activities, diabetes and eating habits were associated with cognitive abilities. These results indicated various trajectories of age-related decline across multiple cognitive domains. We also found different patterns of agerelated cognitive decline between MCI and normal elderly. These findings could help improve the guidance of cognitive intervention program and have implications for public policy issues.

Continuous Aerobic Training in Individualized Intensity Avoids Spontaneous Physical Activity Decline and Improves MCT1 Expression in Oxidative Muscle of Swimming Rats.

PubMed

Scariot, Pedro P M; Manchado-Gobatto, Fúlvia de Barros; Torsoni, Adriana S; Dos Reis, Ivan G M; Beck, Wladimir R; Gobatto, Claudio A

2016-01-01

Although aerobic training has been shown to affect the lactate transport of skeletal muscle, there is no information concerning the effect of continuous aerobic training on spontaneous physical activity (SPA). Because every movement in daily life (i.e., SPA) is generated by skeletal muscle, we think that it is possible that an improvement of SPA could affect the physiological properties of muscle with regard to lactate transport. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of 12 weeks of continuous aerobic training in individualized intensity on SPA of rats and their gene expressions of monocarboxylate transporters (MCT) 1 and 4 in soleus (oxidative) and white gastrocnemius (glycolytic) muscles. We also analyzed the effect of continuous aerobic training on aerobic and anaerobic parameters using the lactate minimum test (LMT). Sixty-day-old rats were randomly divided into three groups: a baseline group in which rats were evaluated prior to initiation of the study; a control group (Co) in which rats were kept without any treatment during 12 weeks; and a chronic exercise group (Tr) in which rats swam for 40 min/day, 5 days/week at 80% of anaerobic threshold during 12 weeks. After the experimental period, SPA of rats was measured using a gravimetric method. Rats had their expression of MCTs determined by RT-PCR analysis. In essence, aerobic training is effective in maintaining SPA, but did not prevent the decline of aerobic capacity and anaerobic performance, leading us to propose that the decline of SPA is not fully attributed to a deterioration of physical properties. Changes in SPA were concomitant with changes in MCT1 expression in the soleus muscle of trained rats, suggestive of an additional adaptive response toward increased lactate clearance. This result is in line with our observation showing a better equilibrium on lactate production-remotion during the continuous exercise (LMT). We propose an approach to combat the decline of SPA of rats in their home cages. This new finding is worth for scientists who work with animal models to study the protective effects of exercise.

When to stop managing or surveying cryptic threatened species

PubMed Central

Chadès, Iadine; McDonald-Madden, Eve; McCarthy, Michael A.; Wintle, Brendan; Linkie, Matthew; Possingham, Hugh P.

2008-01-01

Threatened species become increasingly difficult to detect as their populations decline. Managers of such cryptic threatened species face several dilemmas: if they are not sure the species is present, should they continue to manage for that species or invest the limited resources in surveying? We find optimal solutions to this problem using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process and rules of thumb derived from an analytical approximation. We discover that managing a protected area for a cryptic threatened species can be optimal even if we are not sure the species is present. The more threatened and valuable the species is, relative to the costs of management, the more likely we are to manage this species without determining its continued persistence by using surveys. If a species remains unseen, our belief in the persistence of the species declines to a point where the optimal strategy is to shift resources from saving the species to surveying for it. Finally, when surveys lead to a sufficiently low belief that the species is extant, we surrender resources to other conservation actions. We illustrate our findings with a case study using parameters based on the critically endangered Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae), and we generate rules of thumb on how to allocate conservation effort for any cryptic species. Using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes in conservation science, we determine the conditions under which it is better to abandon management for that species because our belief that it continues to exist is too low. PMID:18779594

When to stop managing or surveying cryptic threatened species.

PubMed

Chadès, Iadine; McDonald-Madden, Eve; McCarthy, Michael A; Wintle, Brendan; Linkie, Matthew; Possingham, Hugh P

2008-09-16

Threatened species become increasingly difficult to detect as their populations decline. Managers of such cryptic threatened species face several dilemmas: if they are not sure the species is present, should they continue to manage for that species or invest the limited resources in surveying? We find optimal solutions to this problem using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process and rules of thumb derived from an analytical approximation. We discover that managing a protected area for a cryptic threatened species can be optimal even if we are not sure the species is present. The more threatened and valuable the species is, relative to the costs of management, the more likely we are to manage this species without determining its continued persistence by using surveys. If a species remains unseen, our belief in the persistence of the species declines to a point where the optimal strategy is to shift resources from saving the species to surveying for it. Finally, when surveys lead to a sufficiently low belief that the species is extant, we surrender resources to other conservation actions. We illustrate our findings with a case study using parameters based on the critically endangered Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae), and we generate rules of thumb on how to allocate conservation effort for any cryptic species. Using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes in conservation science, we determine the conditions under which it is better to abandon management for that species because our belief that it continues to exist is too low.

Student Perspectives on International Education: An Examination into the Decline of Japanese Studying Abroad

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lassegard, James P.

2013-01-01

The number of students going abroad for study purposes continues to grow exponentially, even despite the global economic downturns of recent years. One exception is Japan, where the number of students going overseas has continued to decline since the mid-2000s. This paper first explores various explanations for the persistent decline in Japanese…

California's Youth and Young Adult Arrest Rates Continue a Historic Decline. Fact Sheet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Males, Mike

2016-01-01

This Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) fact sheet shows that, in 2015, arrests of young people under age 25 dropped below 2014 levels and continue a decades-long trend of decline. While the causes of these declines are unknown, falling youth arrests rates coupled with decreased youth incarceration suggest that high rates of…

Declining Orangutan Encounter Rates from Wallace to the Present Suggest the Species Was Once More Abundant

PubMed Central

Meijaard, Erik; Welsh, Alan; Ancrenaz, Marc; Wich, Serge; Nijman, Vincent; Marshall, Andrew J.

2010-01-01

Background Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus) currently occur at low densities and seeing a wild one is a rare event. Compared to present low encounter rates of orangutans, it is striking how many orangutan each day historic collectors like Alfred Russel Wallace were able to shoot continuously over weeks or even months. Does that indicate that some 150 years ago encounter rates with orangutans, or their densities, were higher than now? Methodology/Principal Findings We test this hypothesis by quantifying encounter rates obtained from hunting accounts, museum collections, and recent field studies, and analysing whether there is a declining trend over time. Logistic regression analyses of our data support such a decline on Borneo between the mid-19th century and the present. Even when controlled for variation in the size of survey and hunting teams and the durations of expeditions, mean daily encounter rates appear to have declined about 6-fold in areas with little or no forest disturbance. Conclusions/Significance This finding has potential consequences for our understanding of orangutans, because it suggests that Bornean orangutans once occurred at higher densities. We explore potential explanations—habitat loss and degradation, hunting, and disease—and conclude that hunting fits the observed patterns best. This suggests that hunting has been underestimated as a key causal factor of orangutan density and distribution, and that species population declines have been more severe than previously estimated based on habitat loss only. Our findings may require us to rethink the biology of orangutans, with much of our ecological understanding possibly being based on field studies of animals living at lower densities than they did historically. Our approach of quantifying species encounter rates from historic data demonstrates that this method can yield valuable information about the ecology and population density of species in the past, providing new insight into species' conservation needs. PMID:20711451

Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C. Guilherme

2017-01-01

The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd's global emergence, further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd-screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd-infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979–1987). We also found that clusters of Bd-positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. PMID:28179514

Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis.

PubMed

Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C Guilherme; Toledo, Luís Felipe

2017-02-08

The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd 's global emergence , further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd -screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd -infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979-1987). We also found that clusters of Bd -positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. © 2017 The Author(s).

Causes of the Decline in Cigarette Smoking Among African American Youths From the 1970s to the 1990s

PubMed Central

Foulds, Jonathan

2011-01-01

Adult cigarette smoking prevalence trends among African Americans (AAs) and Whites are similar. However, during the decline in youth smoking that occurred between the mid-1970s and the early 1990s, the drop in smoking rates among AA adolescents was more than double that among Whites. We examined the evidence for potential explanations for this phenomenon. On the basis of our findings, we propose that racial differences in parental attitudes, religious ties, negative perceptions and experiences of the health effects of smoking, worsening poverty, increased use of food stamps, and price sensitivity were major factors contributing to the more rapid decrease in and continued lower rates of smoking among AA youths. PMID:21852655

Barriers to Online Postsecondary Education Crumble: Enrollment in Traditional Face-to-Face Courses Declines as Enrollment in Online Courses Increases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, Dahli

2013-01-01

Contrary to expectations, total postsecondary enrollment in the United States (US) declined in Fall 2011. In fact, it continues to decline while online enrollment continues to increase. Students can more easily cross geographic boundaries as online access causes barriers to postsecondary education to crumble, and more than 50% of the demand for…

Continued decline in blood collection and transfusion in the United States–2015

PubMed Central

Ellingson, Katherine D.; Sapiano, Mathew R. P.; Haass, Kathryn A.; Savinkina, Alexandra A.; Baker, Misha L.; Chung, Koo-Whang; Henry, Richard A.; Berger, James J.; Kuehnert, Matthew J.; Basavaraju, Sridhar V.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND In 2011 and 2013, the National Blood Collection and Utilization Survey (NBCUS) revealed declines in blood collection and transfusion in the United States. The objective of this study was to describe blood services in 2015. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS The 2015 NBCUS was distributed to all US blood collection centers, all hospitals performing at least 1000 surgeries annually, and a 40% random sample of hospitals performing 100 to 999 surgeries annually. Weighting and imputation were used to generate national estimates for units of blood and components collected, deferred, distributed, transfused, and outdated. RESULTS Response rates for the 2015 NBCUS were 78.4% for blood collection centers and 73.9% for transfusing hospitals. In 2015, 12,591,000 units of red blood cells (RBCs) (95% confidence interval [CI], 11,985,000–13,197,000 units of RBCs) were collected, and 11,349,000 (95% CI, 10,592,000–11,747,000) were transfused, representing declines since 2013 of 11.6% and 13.9%, respectively. Total platelet units distributed (2,436,000; 95% CI, 2,230,000–2,642,000) and transfused (1,983,000; 95% CI, 1,816,000=2,151,000) declined by 0.5% and 13.1%, respectively, since 2013. Plasma distributions (3,714,000; 95% CI, 3,306,000–4,121,000) and transfusions (2,727,000; 95% CI, 2,594,000–2,859,000) in 2015 declined since 2013. The median price paid per unit in 2015—$211 for leukocyte-reduced RBCs, $524 for apheresis platelets, and $54 for fresh frozen plasma—was less for all components than in 2013. CONCLUSIONS The 2015 NBCUS findings suggest that continued declines in demand for blood products resulted in fewer units collected and distributed Maintaining a blood inventory sufficient to meet routine and emergent demands will require further monitoring and understanding of these trends. PMID:28591469

Selection experiences in Medicare HMOs: pre-enrollment expenditures.

PubMed

Call, K T; Dowd, B; Feldman, R; Maciejewski, M

1999-01-01

Using 1993 and 1994 data, the authors examine whether beneficiaries who enroll in a Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO), including those enrolling for only a short period of time, have lower expenditures than continuous fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries the year prior to enrollment. We also test whether biased selection varies by the level of HMO market penetration and the rate of market-share growth. We find favorable selection associated with enrollment into Medicare HMOs, which declines as market share increases but does not disappear. Among short-term enrollees, we find unfavorable selection, however, selection bias was not sensitive to market characteristics.

Influence of changing travel patterns on child death rates from injury: trend analysis.

PubMed Central

DiGuiseppi, C.; Roberts, I.; Li, L.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in child mortality from unintentional injury between 1985 and 1992 and to find how changes in modes of travel contributed to these trends. DESIGN: Poisson regression modelling using data from death certificates, censuses, and national travel surveys. SETTING: England and Wales. SUBJECTS: Resident children aged 0-14. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths from unintentional injury and poisoning. RESULTS: Child deaths from injury declined by 34% (95% confidence interval 28% to 40%) per 100,000 population between 1985 and 1992. Substantial decreases in each of the leading causes of death from injury contributed to this overall decline. On average, children walked and cycled less distance and travelled substantially more miles by car in 1992 compared with 1985. Deaths from road traffic accidents declined for pedestrians by 24% per mile walked and for cyclists by 20% per mile cycled, substantially less than the declines per 100,000 population of 37% and 38% respectively. In contrast, deaths of occupants of motor vehicles declined by 42% per mile travelled by car compared with a 21% decline per 100,000 population. CONCLUSIONS: If trends in child mortality from injury continue the government's target to reduce the rate by 33% by the year 2005 will be achieved. A substantial proportion of the decline in pedestrian traffic and pedal cycling deaths, however, seems to have been achieved at the expense of children's walking and cycling activities. Changes in travel patterns may exact a considerable price in terms of future health problems. PMID:9116546

Parental age and offspring mortality: Negative effects of reproductive ageing may be counterbalanced by secular increases in longevity.

PubMed

Barclay, Kieron; Myrskylä, Mikko

2018-07-01

As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing. Due to reproductive ageing, advanced parental ages have been associated with negative health outcomes for offspring, including decreased longevity. The literature, however, has neglected to examine the potential benefits of being born at a later date. Secular declines in mortality mean that later birth cohorts are living longer. We analyse mortality over ages 30-74 among 1.9 million Swedish men and women born 1938-60, and use a sibling comparison design that accounts for all time-invariant factors shared by the siblings. When incorporating cohort improvements in mortality, we find that those born to older mothers do not suffer any significant mortality disadvantage, and that those born to older fathers have lower mortality. These findings are likely to be explained by secular declines in mortality counterbalancing the negative effects of reproductive ageing.

Psychotherapy in Contemporary Psychiatric Practice

PubMed Central

Hadjipavlou, George; Hernandez, Carlos A Sierra; Ogrodniczuk, John S

2015-01-01

Objective: American data suggest a declining trend in the provision of psychotherapy by psychiatrists. Nevertheless, the extent to which such findings generalize to psychiatric practice in other countries is unclear. We surveyed psychiatrists in British Columbia to examine whether the reported decline in psychotherapy provision extends to the landscape of Canadian psychiatric practice. Method: A survey was mailed to the entire population of fully licensed psychiatrists registered in British Columbia (n = 623). The survey consisted of 30 items. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample and psychotherapy practice patterns. Associations between variables were evaluated using nonparametric tests. Results: A total of 423 psychiatrists returned the survey, yielding a response rate of 68%. Overall, 80.9% of psychiatrists (n = 342) reported practicing psychotherapy. A decline in the provision of psychotherapy was not observed; in fact, there was an increase in psychotherapy provision among psychiatrists entering practice in the last 10 years. Individual therapy was the predominant format used by psychiatrists. The most common primary theoretical orientation was psychodynamic (29.9%). Regarding actual practice, supportive psychotherapy was practiced most frequently. Professional time constraints were perceived as the most significant barrier to providing psychotherapy. The majority (85%) of clinicians did not view remuneration as a significant barrier to treating patients with psychotherapy. Conclusions: Our findings challenge the prevailing view that psychotherapy is in decline among psychiatrists. Psychiatrists in British Columbia continue to integrate psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy in clinical practice, thus preserving their unique place in the spectrum of mental health services. PMID:26175328

Effects of Medicare payment reform: evidence from the home health interim and prospective payment systems.

PubMed

Huckfeldt, Peter J; Sood, Neeraj; Escarce, José J; Grabowski, David C; Newhouse, Joseph P

2014-03-01

Medicare continues to implement payment reforms that shift reimbursement from fee-for-service toward episode-based payment, affecting average and marginal payment. We contrast the effects of two reforms for home health agencies. The home health interim payment system in 1997 lowered both types of payment; our conceptual model predicts a decline in the likelihood of use and costs, both of which we find. The home health prospective payment system in 2000 raised average but lowered marginal payment with theoretically ambiguous effects; we find a modest increase in use and costs. We find little substantive effect of either policy on readmissions or mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Medicare Payment Reform: Evidence from the Home Health Interim and Prospective Payment Systems

PubMed Central

Huckfeldt, Peter J; Sood, Neeraj; Escarce, José J; Grabowski, David C; Newhouse, Joseph P

2014-01-01

Medicare continues to implement payment reforms that shift reimbursement from fee-for-service towards episode-based payment, affecting average and marginal payment. We contrast the effects of two reforms for home health agencies. The Home Health Interim Payment System in 1997 lowered both types of payment; our conceptual model predicts a decline in the likelihood of use and costs, both of which we find. The Home Health Prospective Payment System in 2000 raised average but lowered marginal payment with theoretically ambiguous effects; we find a modest increase in use and costs. We find little substantive effect of either policy on readmissions or mortality. PMID:24395018

CFSC (Community and Family Study Center) study finds birth rates falling everywhere - family planning (family planning) is a factor.

PubMed

1978-08-01

The findings of the Community and Family Study Center study, based on estimated crude birthrates and total fertility rates for 1968 and 1975, indicate that there has been a significant reduction in fertility levels of both developed and developing countries. Despite regional variations, the estimates show an average proportional decline of 8.5% in total fertility rates between 1968 and 1975. Of the 148 nations studied, 113 were in developing regions and 35 in the developed regions. Information on important social and economic development factors, such as life expectancy, literacy, percent of labor force in agriculture, per capita income, and family planning program strength were gathered for each country. Analyses of these data are reported in "The Public Interest" (to be published) "Population Reference Bulletin," October 1978, and a paper presented at the 1978 Population Association of America Meetings in Atlanta, Georgia. The recent change in fertility affected 81% of the world's population, primarily the peoples of Asia, Latin America, and North America. The total fertility rate in the world in 1968 was 4635 and declined to 4068 in 1975. More substantial declines occurred in Asia and Latin America, where the number of fewer births 1000 women would bear under a given fertility schedule declined by 845 births and 617 births, respectively. As more research is conducted to investigate the underlying causes of this decline, it is likely to confirm the important role that family planning programs have had in developing nations. Although major improvements in the socioeconomic well-being of the developing areas continue as an essential goal, the need to maintain the organized provision of family planning services should not be understated.

Economic recession and fertility in the developed world.

PubMed

Sobotka, Tomáš; Skirbekk, Vegard; Philipov, Dimiter

2011-01-01

This article reviews research on the effects of economic recessions on fertility in the developed world. We study how economic downturns, as measured by various indicators, especially by declining GDP levels, falling consumer confidence, and rising unemployment, were found to affect fertility. We also discuss particular mechanisms through which the recession may have influenced fertility behavior, including the effects of economic uncertainty, falling income, changes in the housing market, and rising enrollment in higher education, and also factors that influence fertility indirectly such as declining marriage rates. Most studies find that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical and often rises and declines with the ups and downs of the business cycle. Usually, these aggregate effects are relatively small (typically, a few percentage points) and of short durations; in addition they often influence especially the timing of childbearing and in most cases do not leave an imprint on cohort fertility levels. Therefore, major long-term fertility shifts often continue seemingly uninterrupted during the recession—including the fertility declines before and during the Great Depression of the 1930s and before and during the oil shock crises of the 1970s. Changes in the opportunity costs of childbearing and fertility behavior during economic downturn vary by sex, age, social status, and number of children; childless young adults are usually most affected. Furthermore, various policies and institutions may modify or even reverse the relationship between recessions and fertility. The first evidence pertaining to the recent recession falls in line with these findings. In most countries, the recession has brought a decline in the number of births and fertility rates, often marking a sharp halt to the previous decade of rising fertility rates.

Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States, 1980–2010

PubMed Central

Kennedy, Sheela; Ruggles, Steven

2014-01-01

This article critically evaluates the available data on trends in divorce in the United States. We find that both vital statistics and retrospective survey data on divorce after 1990 underestimate recent marital instability. These flawed data have led some analysts to conclude that divorce has been stable or declining for the past three decades. Using new data from the American Community Survey and controlling for changes in the age composition of the married population, we conclude that there was actually a substantial increase in age-standardized divorce rates between 1990 and 2008. Divorce rates have doubled over the past two decades among persons over age 35. Among the youngest couples, however, divorce rates are stable or declining. If current trends continue, overall age-standardized divorce rates could level off or even decline over the next few decades. We argue that the leveling of divorce among persons born since 1980 probably reflects the increasing selectivity of marriage. PMID:24399141

Breaking up is hard to count: the rise of divorce in the United States, 1980-2010.

PubMed

Kennedy, Sheela; Ruggles, Steven

2014-04-01

This article critically evaluates the available data on trends in divorce in the United States. We find that both vital statistics and retrospective survey data on divorce after 1990 underestimate recent marital instability. These flawed data have led some analysts to conclude that divorce has been stable or declining for the past three decades. Using new data from the American Community Survey and controlling for changes in the age composition of the married population, we conclude that there was actually a substantial increase in age-standardized divorce rates between 1990 and 2008. Divorce rates have doubled over the past two decades among persons over age 35. Among the youngest couples, however, divorce rates are stable or declining. If current trends continue, overall age-standardized divorce rates could level off or even decline over the next few decades. We argue that the leveling of divorce among persons born since 1980 probably reflects the increasing selectivity of marriage.

Developmental trajectories of marital happiness in continuously married individuals: a group-based modeling approach.

PubMed

Anderson, Jared R; Van Ryzin, Mark J; Doherty, William J

2010-10-01

Most contemporary studies of change in marital quality over time have used growth curve modeling to describe continuously declining mean curves. However, there is some evidence that different trajectories of marital quality exist for different subpopulations. Group-based trajectory modeling provides the opportunity to conduct an empirical investigation of the variance in marital quality trajectories. We applied this method to analyze data from continuously married individuals from the Marital Instability over the Life Course Study (N = 706). Instead of a single continuously declining trajectory of marital happiness, we found 5 distinct trajectories. Nearly two thirds of participants reported high and stable levels of happiness over time, and the other one third showed either a pattern of continuous low happiness, low happiness that subsequently declined, or a curvilinear pattern of high happiness, decline, and recovery. Marital problems, time spent in shared activities, and (to a lesser degree) economic hardship were able to distinguish trajectory group membership. Our results suggest that marital happiness may have multiple distinct trajectories across reasonably diverse populations. Implications for theory, research, and practice are discussed.

Selection Experiences in Medicare HMOs: Pre-Enrollment Expenditures

PubMed Central

Call, Kathleen Thiede; Dowd, Bryan; Feldman, Roger; Maciejewski, Matthew

1999-01-01

Using 1993 and 1994 data, the authors examine whether beneficiaries who enroll in a Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO), including those enrolling for only a short period of time, have lower expenditures than continuous fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries the year prior to enrollment. We also test whether biased selection varies by the level of HMO market penetration and the rate of market-share growth. We find favorable selection associated with enrollment into Medicare HMOs, which declines as market share increases but does not disappear. Among short-term enrollees, we find unfavorable selection, however, selection bias was not sensitive to market characteristics. PMID:11482122

Steeper declines in forest photosynthesis than respiration explain age-driven decreases in forest growth.

PubMed

Tang, Jianwu; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Richardson, Andrew D; Kutsch, Werner; Janssens, Ivan A

2014-06-17

The traditional view of forest dynamics originated by Kira and Shidei [Kira T, Shidei T (1967) Jap J Ecol 17:70-87] and Odum [Odum EP (1969) Science 164(3877):262-270] suggests a decline in net primary productivity (NPP) in aging forests due to stabilized gross primary productivity (GPP) and continuously increased autotrophic respiration (Ra). The validity of these trends in GPP and Ra is, however, very difficult to test because of the lack of long-term ecosystem-scale field observations of both GPP and Ra. Ryan and colleagues [Ryan MG, Binkley D, Fownes JH (1997) Ad Ecol Res 27:213-262] have proposed an alternative hypothesis drawn from site-specific results that aboveground respiration and belowground allocation decreased in aging forests. Here, we analyzed data from a recently assembled global database of carbon fluxes and show that the classical view of the mechanisms underlying the age-driven decline in forest NPP is incorrect and thus support Ryan's alternative hypothesis. Our results substantiate the age-driven decline in NPP, but in contrast to the traditional view, both GPP and Ra decline in aging boreal and temperate forests. We find that the decline in NPP in aging forests is primarily driven by GPP, which decreases more rapidly with increasing age than Ra does, but the ratio of NPP/GPP remains approximately constant within a biome. Our analytical models describing forest succession suggest that dynamic forest ecosystem models that follow the traditional paradigm need to be revisited.

Prediction of parturition in bitches utilizing continuous vaginal temperature measurement.

PubMed

Geiser, B; Burfeind, O; Heuwieser, W; Arlt, S

2014-02-01

The objective of this study was to determine sensitivity and specificity of a body temperature decline in bitches to predict parturition. Temperature loggers were placed into the vaginal cavity of 16 pregnant bitches on day 56-61 after estimated ovulation or first mating. This measurement technique has been validated previously and enabled continuous sampling of body temperature. The temperature loggers were expelled from the vagina before delivery of the first pup. The computed values for specificity (77-92%) were higher than sensitivity (53-69%), indicating a more precise prognosis of parturition not occurring. In conclusion, our findings may assist interpreting vaginal temperature measurements in order to predict parturition in bitches. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Vital Signs: Recent Trends in Stroke Death Rates - United States, 2000-2015.

PubMed

Yang, Quanhe; Tong, Xin; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Gillespie, Cathleen; Wiltz, Jennifer L; King, Sallyann Coleman; Odom, Erika; Merritt, Robert; Hong, Yuling; George, Mary G

2017-09-08

The prominent decline in U.S. stroke death rates observed for more than 4 decades has slowed in recent years. CDC examined trends and patterns in recent stroke death rates among U.S. adults aged ≥35 years by age, sex, race/ethnicity, state, and census region. Trends in the rates of stroke as the underlying cause of death during 2000-2015 were analyzed using data from the National Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint software was used to identify trends in stroke death rates, and the excess number of stroke deaths resulting from unfavorable changes in trends was estimated. Among adults aged ≥35 years, age-standardized stroke death rates declined 38%, from 118.4 per 100,000 persons in 2000 to 73.3 per 100,000 persons in 2015. The annual percent change (APC) in stroke death rates changed from 2000 to 2015, from a 3.4% decrease per year during 2000-2003, to a 6.6% decrease per year during 2003-2006, a 3.1% decrease per year during 2006-2013, and a 2.5% (nonsignificant) increase per year during 2013-2015. The last trend segment indicated a reversal from a decrease to a statistically significant increase among Hispanics (APC = 5.8%) and among persons in the South Census Region (APC = 4.2%). Declines in stroke death rates failed to continue in 38 states, and during 2013-2015, an estimated 32,593 excess stroke deaths might not have occurred if the previous rate of decline could have been sustained. Prior declines in stroke death rates have not continued in recent years, and substantial variations exist in timing and magnitude of change by demographic and geographic characteristics. These findings suggest the importance of strategically identifying opportunities for prevention and intervening in vulnerable populations, especially because effective and underused interventions to prevent stroke incidence and death are known to exist.

Vital Signs: Recent Trends in Stroke Death Rates — United States, 2000–2015

PubMed Central

Tong, Xin; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Gillespie, Cathleen; Wiltz, Jennifer L.; King, Sallyann Coleman; Odom, Erika; Merritt, Robert; Hong, Yuling; George, Mary G.

2017-01-01

Introduction The prominent decline in U.S. stroke death rates observed for more than 4 decades has slowed in recent years. CDC examined trends and patterns in recent stroke death rates among U.S. adults aged ≥35 years by age, sex, race/ethnicity, state, and census region. Methods Trends in the rates of stroke as the underlying cause of death during 2000–2015 were analyzed using data from the National Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint software was used to identify trends in stroke death rates, and the excess number of stroke deaths resulting from unfavorable changes in trends was estimated. Results Among adults aged ≥35 years, age-standardized stroke death rates declined 38%, from 118.4 per 100,000 persons in 2000 to 73.3 per 100,000 persons in 2015. The annual percent change (APC) in stroke death rates changed from 2000 to 2015, from a 3.4% decrease per year during 2000–2003, to a 6.6% decrease per year during 2003–2006, a 3.1% decrease per year during 2006–2013, and a 2.5% (nonsignificant) increase per year during 2013–2015. The last trend segment indicated a reversal from a decrease to a statistically significant increase among Hispanics (APC = 5.8%) and among persons in the South Census Region (APC = 4.2%). Declines in stroke death rates failed to continue in 38 states, and during 2013–2015, an estimated 32,593 excess stroke deaths might not have occurred if the previous rate of decline could have been sustained. Conclusions and Implications for Public Health Practice Prior declines in stroke death rates have not continued in recent years, and substantial variations exist in timing and magnitude of change by demographic and geographic characteristics. These findings suggest the importance of strategically identifying opportunities for prevention and intervening in vulnerable populations, especially because effective and underused interventions to prevent stroke incidence and death are known to exist. PMID:28880858

Evolving Understanding of the Causes of Pneumonia in Adults, With Special Attention to the Role of Pneumococcus.

PubMed

Musher, Daniel M; Abers, Michael S; Bartlett, John G

2017-10-30

Before 1945, Streptococcus pneumoniae caused more than 90% of cases of pneumonia in adults. After 1950, the proportion of pneumonia caused by pneumococcus began to decline. Pneumococcus has continued to decline; at present, this organism is identified in fewer than fewer10%-15% of cases. This proportion is higher in Europe, a finding likely related to differences in vaccination practices and smoking. Gram-negative bacilli, Staphylococcus aureus, Chlamydia, Mycoplasma, and Legionella are each identified in 2%-5% of patients with pneumonia who require hospitalization. Viruses are found in 25% of patients, up to one-third of these have bacterial coinfection. Recent studies fail to identify a causative organism in more than 50% of cases, which remains the most important challenge to understanding lower respiratory infection. Our findings have important implications for antibiotic stewardship and should be considered as new policies for empiric pneumonia management are developed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Creating Gender Parity: An Instruction Aide's Influence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lester, Cynthia Y.; Brown, Marcus

2004-01-01

The decline in the number of women in computing disciplines has been attributed to different causes, and research on the decline continues to grow. While there are numerous reasons suggested for the imbalance in these disciplines, the perceptions that women hold about their computing capabilities continue to be of interest. The current study…

Teachers' Mastery Goals: Using a Self-Report Survey to Study the Relations between Teaching Practices and Students' Motivation for Science Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vedder-Weiss, Dana; Fortus, David

2018-02-01

Employing achievement goal theory (Ames Journal of Educational psychology, 84(3), 261-271, 1992), we explored science teachers' instruction and its relation to students' motivation for science learning and school culture. Based on the TARGETS framework (Patrick et al. The Elementary School Journal, 102(1), 35-58, 2001) and using data from 95 teachers, we developed a self-report survey assessing science teachers' usage of practices that emphasize mastery goals. We then used this survey and hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) analyses to study the relations between 35 science teachers' mastery goals in each of the TARGETS dimensions, the decline in their grade-level 5-8 students' ( N = 1.356) classroom and continuing motivation for science learning, and their schools' mastery goal structure. The findings suggest that adolescents' declining motivation for science learning results in part from a decreasing emphasis on mastery goals by schools and science teachers. Practices that relate to the nature of tasks and to student autonomy emerged as most strongly associated with adolescents' motivation and its decline with age.

Predictions replaced by facts: a keystone species' behavioural responses to declining arctic sea-ice.

PubMed

Hamilton, Charmain D; Lydersen, Christian; Ims, Rolf A; Kovacs, Kit M

2015-11-01

Since the first documentation of climate-warming induced declines in arctic sea-ice, predictions have been made regarding the expected negative consequences for endemic marine mammals. But, several decades later, little hard evidence exists regarding the responses of these animals to the ongoing environmental changes. Herein, we report the first empirical evidence of a dramatic shift in movement patterns and foraging behaviour of the arctic endemic ringed seal (Pusa hispida), before and after a major collapse in sea-ice in Svalbard, Norway. Among other changes to the ice-regime, this collapse shifted the summer position of the marginal ice zone from over the continental shelf, northward to the deep Arctic Ocean Basin. Following this change, which is thought to be a 'tipping point', subadult ringed seals swam greater distances, showed less area-restricted search behaviour, dived for longer periods, exhibited shorter surface intervals, rested less on sea-ice and did less diving directly beneath the ice during post-moulting foraging excursions. In combination, these behavioural changes suggest increased foraging effort and thus also likely increases in the energetic costs of finding food. Continued declines in sea-ice are likely to result in distributional changes, range reductions and population declines in this keystone arctic species. © 2015 The Author(s).

Addressing conservation needs of birds during the migratory period: problems and issues

Treesearch

Mark S. Demarest Woodrey; Ernesto Ruela Inzunza

2005-01-01

The conservation of declining intercontinental landbird and shorebird migrants is complicated by the migratory nature of these organisms. Although debate over the causes of declines in most species will no doubt continue for some time, continued attention has focused largely on events associated with the breeding and wintering phases of the migrant's annual cycle...

Gradual decline in mobility with the adoption of food production in Europe

PubMed Central

Ruff, Christopher B.; Holt, Brigitte; Niskanen, Markku; Sladek, Vladimir; Berner, Margit; Garofalo, Evan; Garvin, Heather M.; Hora, Martin; Junno, Juho-Antti; Schuplerova, Eliska; Vilkama, Rosa; Whittey, Erin

2015-01-01

Increased sedentism during the Holocene has been proposed as a major cause of decreased skeletal robusticity (bone strength relative to body size) in modern humans. When and why declining mobility occurred has profound implications for reconstructing past population history and health, but it has proven difficult to characterize archaeologically. In this study we evaluate temporal trends in relative strength of the upper and lower limb bones in a sample of 1,842 individuals from across Europe extending from the Upper Paleolithic [11,000–33,000 calibrated years (Cal y) B.P.] through the 20th century. A large decline in anteroposterior bending strength of the femur and tibia occurs beginning in the Neolithic (∼4,000–7,000 Cal y B.P.) and continues through the Iron/Roman period (∼2,000 Cal y B.P.), with no subsequent directional change. Declines in mediolateral bending strength of the lower limb bones and strength of the humerus are much smaller and less consistent. Together these results strongly implicate declining mobility as the specific behavioral factor underlying these changes. Mobility levels first declined at the onset of food production, but the transition to a more sedentary lifestyle was gradual, extending through later agricultural intensification. This finding only partially supports models that tie increased sedentism to a relatively abrupt Neolithic Demographic Transition in Europe. The lack of subsequent change in relative bone strength indicates that increasing mechanization and urbanization had only relatively small effects on skeletal robusticity, suggesting that moderate changes in activity level are not sufficient stimuli for bone deposition or resorption. PMID:26060299

Hickory decline and mortality: Update on hickory decline research

Treesearch

Jennifer Juzwik; Ji-Huyn Park; Linda Haugen

2010-01-01

Research continued through the 2010 field season on the etiology of hickory decline that is characterized by thinning crowns with small, yellow leaves and hickory bark beetle attack on the upper main stem. This research is part of a larger project initiated in 2006 to assess the distribution and determine the cause(s) of Forest Health Monitoring reported decline and...

Continuous decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in Japan despite a continuous and marked rise in total cholesterol: Japanese experience after the Seven Countries Study.

PubMed

Sekikawa, Akira; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Miura, Katsuyuki; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Willcox, Bradley J; Masaki, Kamal H; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Tracy, Russell P; Okamura, Tomonori; Kuller, Lewis H

2015-10-01

The Seven Countries Study in the 1960s showed very low mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) in Japan, which was attributed to very low levels of total cholesterol. Studies of migrant Japanese to the USA in the 1970s documented increase in CHD rates, thus CHD mortality in Japan was expected to increase as their lifestyle became Westernized, yet CHD mortality has continued to decline since 1970. This study describes trends in CHD mortality and its risk factors since 1980 in Japan, contrasting those in other selected developed countries. We selected Australia, Canada, France, Japan, Spain, Sweden, the UK and the USA. CHD mortality between 1980 and 2007 was obtained from WHO Statistical Information System. National data on traditional risk factors during the same period were obtained from literature and national surveys. Age-adjusted CHD mortality continuously declined between 1980 and 2007 in all these countries. The decline was accompanied by a constant fall in total cholesterol except Japan where total cholesterol continuously rose. In the birth cohort of individuals currently aged 50-69 years, levels of total cholesterol have been higher in Japan than in the USA, yet CHD mortality in Japan remained the lowest: >67% lower in men and > 75% lower in women compared with the USA. The direction and magnitude of changes in other risk factors were generally similar between Japan and the other countries. Decline in CHD mortality despite a continuous rise in total cholesterol is unique. The observation may suggest some protective factors unique to Japanese. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Neural Plastic Effects of Cognitive Training on Aging Brain

PubMed Central

Leung, Natalie T. Y.; Tam, Helena M. K.; Chu, Leung W.; Kwok, Timothy C. Y.; Chan, Felix; Lam, Linda C. W.; Woo, Jean; Lee, Tatia M. C.

2015-01-01

Increasing research has evidenced that our brain retains a capacity to change in response to experience until late adulthood. This implies that cognitive training can possibly ameliorate age-associated cognitive decline by inducing training-specific neural plastic changes at both neural and behavioral levels. This longitudinal study examined the behavioral effects of a systematic thirteen-week cognitive training program on attention and working memory of older adults who were at risk of cognitive decline. These older adults were randomly assigned to the Cognitive Training Group (n = 109) and the Active Control Group (n = 100). Findings clearly indicated that training induced improvement in auditory and visual-spatial attention and working memory. The training effect was specific to the experience provided because no significant difference in verbal and visual-spatial memory between the two groups was observed. This pattern of findings is consistent with the prediction and the principle of experience-dependent neuroplasticity. Findings of our study provided further support to the notion that the neural plastic potential continues until older age. The baseline cognitive status did not correlate with pre- versus posttraining changes to any cognitive variables studied, suggesting that the initial cognitive status may not limit the neuroplastic potential of the brain at an old age. PMID:26417460

Cryptic effects of habitat declines: coral-associated fishes avoid coral-seaweed interactions due to visual and chemical cues.

PubMed

Brooker, Rohan M; Brandl, Simon J; Dixson, Danielle L

2016-01-04

Seaweed-dominated coral reefs are becoming increasingly common as environmental conditions shift away from those required by corals and toward those ideal for rampant seaweed growth. How coral-associated organisms respond to seaweed will not only impact their fate following environmental change but potentially also the trajectories of the coral communities on which they rely. However, behavioral responses by coral-associated organisms to seaweeds are poorly understood. This study examined interactions between a guild of obligate and opportunistic coral-feeding butterflyfishes (Chaetodontidae) and scleractinian corals to determine whether fishes continue to interact with corals in contact with seaweed or if they are avoided. Under natural conditions, all species interacted almost exclusively with seaweed-free corals. In a controlled patch reef experiment, fishes avoided corals in physical contact with seaweed, irrespective of dietary preferences. When visual seaweed cues were removed, butterflyfish continued to avoid corals that had been in contact with the allelopathic Galaxaura filamentosa, suggesting that chemical cues produced by coral-seaweed interactions are repellent. These findings suggest that, due to deleterious visual and chemical cues produced by coral-seaweed interactions, coral-associated organisms may struggle to locate resources as seaweed-free corals decline in abundance.

Seizure burden is independently associated with short term outcome in critically ill children

PubMed Central

Payne, Eric T.; Zhao, Xiu Yan; Frndova, Helena; McBain, Kristin; Sharma, Rohit; Hutchison, James S.

2014-01-01

Seizures are common among critically ill children, but their relationship to outcome remains unclear. We sought to quantify the relationship between electrographic seizure burden and short-term neurological outcome, while controlling for diagnosis and illness severity. Furthermore, we sought to determine whether there is a seizure burden threshold above which there is an increased probability of neurological decline. We prospectively evaluated all infants and children admitted to our paediatric and cardiac intensive care units who underwent clinically ordered continuous video-electroencephalography monitoring over a 3-year period. Seizure burden was quantified by calculating the maximum percentage of any hour that was occupied by electrographic seizures. Outcome measures included neurological decline, defined as a worsening Paediatric Cerebral Performance Category score between hospital admission and discharge, and in-hospital mortality. Two hundred and fifty-nine subjects were evaluated (51% male) with a median age of 2.2 years (interquartile range: 0.3 days–9.7 years). The median duration of continuous video-electroencephalography monitoring was 37 h (interquartile range: 21–56 h). Seizures occurred in 93 subjects (36%, 95% confidence interval = 30–42%), with 23 (9%, 95% confidence interval = 5–12%) experiencing status epilepticus. Neurological decline was observed in 174 subjects (67%), who had a mean maximum seizure burden of 15.7% per hour, compared to 1.8% per hour for those without neurological decline (P < 0.0001). Above a maximum seizure burden threshold of 20% per hour (12 min), both the probability and magnitude of neurological decline rose sharply (P < 0.0001) across all diagnostic categories. On multivariable analysis adjusting for diagnosis and illness severity, the odds of neurological decline increased by 1.13 (95% confidence interval = 1.05–1.21, P = 0.0016) for every 1% increase in maximum hourly seizure burden. Seizure burden was not associated with mortality (odds ratio: 1.003, 95% confidence interval: 0.99–1.02, P = 0.613). We conclude that in this cohort of critically ill children, increasing seizure burden was independently associated with a greater probability and magnitude of neurological decline. Our observation that a seizure burden of more than 12 min in a given hour was strongly associated with neurological decline suggests that early antiepileptic drug management is warranted in this population, and identifies this seizure burden threshold as a potential therapeutic target. These findings support the hypothesis that electrographic seizures independently contribute to brain injury and worsen outcome. Our results motivate and inform the design of future studies to determine whether more aggressive seizure treatment can improve outcome. PMID:24595203

The role of change in the relationship between commitment and turnover: a latent growth modeling approach.

PubMed

Bentein, Kathleen; Vandenberghe, Christian; Vandenberg, Robert; Stinglhamber, Florence

2005-05-01

Through the use of affective, normative, and continuance commitment in a multivariate 2nd-order factor latent growth modeling approach, the authors observed linear negative trajectories that characterized the changes in individuals across time in both affective and normative commitment. In turn, an individual's intention to quit the organization was characterized by a positive trajectory. A significant association was also found between the change trajectories such that the steeper the decline in an individual's affective and normative commitments across time, the greater the rate of increase in that individual's intention to quit, and, further, the greater the likelihood that the person actually left the organization over the next 9 months. Findings regarding continuance commitment and its components were mixed.

Age-related decline of precision and binding in visual working memory.

PubMed

Peich, Muy-Cheng; Husain, Masud; Bays, Paul M

2013-09-01

Working memory declines with normal aging, but the nature of this impairment is debated. Studies based on detecting changes to arrays of visual objects have identified two possible components to age-related decline: a reduction in the number of items that can be stored, or a deficit in maintaining the associations (bindings) between individual object features. However, some investigations have reported intact binding with aging, and specific deficits arising only in Alzheimer's disease. Here, using a recently developed continuous measure of recall fidelity, we tested the precision with which adults of different ages could reproduce from memory the orientation and color of a probed array item. The results reveal a further component of cognitive decline: an age-related decrease in the resolution with which visual information can be maintained in working memory. This increase in recall variability with age was strongest under conditions of greater memory load. Moreover, analysis of the distribution of errors revealed that older participants were more likely to incorrectly report one of the unprobed items in memory, consistent with an age-related increase in misbinding. These results indicate a systematic decline with age in working memory resources that can be recruited to store visual information. The paradigm presented here provides a sensitive index of both memory resolution and feature binding, with the potential for assessing their modulation by interventions. The findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms underpinning working memory deficits in both health and disease.

Age-Related Decline of Precision and Binding in Visual Working Memory

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Working memory declines with normal aging, but the nature of this impairment is debated. Studies based on detecting changes to arrays of visual objects have identified two possible components to age-related decline: a reduction in the number of items that can be stored, or a deficit in maintaining the associations (bindings) between individual object features. However, some investigations have reported intact binding with aging, and specific deficits arising only in Alzheimer’s disease. Here, using a recently developed continuous measure of recall fidelity, we tested the precision with which adults of different ages could reproduce from memory the orientation and color of a probed array item. The results reveal a further component of cognitive decline: an age-related decrease in the resolution with which visual information can be maintained in working memory. This increase in recall variability with age was strongest under conditions of greater memory load. Moreover, analysis of the distribution of errors revealed that older participants were more likely to incorrectly report one of the unprobed items in memory, consistent with an age-related increase in misbinding. These results indicate a systematic decline with age in working memory resources that can be recruited to store visual information. The paradigm presented here provides a sensitive index of both memory resolution and feature binding, with the potential for assessing their modulation by interventions. The findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms underpinning working memory deficits in both health and disease. PMID:23978008

Thermohaline circulation at three key sections in the North Atlantic over 1985-2002

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, Robert; de Cuevas, Beverly A.; Coward, Andrew C.; Bryden, Harry L.; Álvarez, Marta

2005-05-01

Efforts are presently underway to monitor the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. A measuring strategy has been designed to monitor both the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the subtropics and dense outflows at higher latitudes. To provide a historical context for these new observations, we diagnose an eddy-permitting ocean model simulation of the period 1985-2002. We present time series of the THC, MOC and heat transport, at key hydrographic sections in the subtropics, the northeast Atlantic and the Labrador Sea. The simulated THC compares well with observations. We find considerable variability in the THC on each section, most strikingly in the Labrador Sea during the early 1990's, consistent with observed changes. Overturning in the northeast Atlantic declines by ~20% over the 1990's, coincident with an increase in the subtropics. We speculate that MOC weakening may soon be detected in the subtropics, if the decline continues in mid-latitudes.

Cognitive effects of hormone therapy continuation or discontinuation in a sample of women at risk for Alzheimer’s disease

PubMed Central

Wroolie, Tonita E.; Kenna, Heather A.; Williams, Katherine E.; Rasgon, Natalie L.

2015-01-01

Use of estrogen-based hormone therapy (HT), as a protection from cognitive decline and Alzheimer’s disease, is controversial although cumulative data supports HT use when initiated close to menopause onset with estrogen formulations containing 17β-estradiol (17β-E) being preferable to conjugated equine estrogen formulations. Little is known regarding specific populations of women who may derive benefit from HT. Women with heightened risk for AD (aged 49-69), all of whom were taking HT for at least one year, most of whom initiated HT close to menopause onset, underwent cognitive assessment followed by randomization to continue or discontinue HT. Assessments were repeated at two years after randomization. Women who continued HT performed better on cognitive domains composed of measures of verbal memory, and combined attention, working memory, and processing speed measures. Women who used 17β-E versus conjugated equine estrogen, whether randomized to continue or discontinue HT showed better verbal memory performance at the 2-year follow-up assessment. An interaction was also found with HT randomization and family history of AD in a first degree relative. All women offspring of patients with AD declined in verbal memory however, women who continued HT declined less than women who discontinued HT. Women without a first-degree relative with AD showed verbal memory improvement (likely due to practice effects) with continuance and declined with discontinuance of HT. Continuation of HT use appears to protect cognition in women with heightened risk for AD when initiated close to menopause onset. PMID:26209223

Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations.

PubMed

York, Jordan; Dowsley, Martha; Cornwell, Adam; Kuc, Miroslaw; Taylor, Mitchell

2016-05-01

Subpopulation growth rates and the probability of decline at current harvest levels were determined for 13 subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) that are within or shared with Canada based on mark-recapture estimates of population numbers and vital rates, and harvest statistics using population viability analyses (PVA). Aboriginal traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) on subpopulation trend agreed with the seven stable/increasing results and one of the declining results, but disagreed with PVA status of five other declining subpopulations. The decline in the Baffin Bay subpopulation appeared to be due to over-reporting of harvested numbers from outside Canada. The remaining four disputed subpopulations (Southern Beaufort Sea, Northern Beaufort Sea, Southern Hudson Bay, and Western Hudson Bay) were all incompletely mark-recapture (M-R) sampled, which may have biased their survival and subpopulation estimates. Three of the four incompletely sampled subpopulations were PVA identified as nonviable (i.e., declining even with zero harvest mortality). TEK disagreement was nonrandom with respect to M-R sampling protocols. Cluster analysis also grouped subpopulations with ambiguous demographic and harvest rate estimates separately from those with apparently reliable demographic estimates based on PVA probability of decline and unharvested subpopulation growth rate criteria. We suggest that the correspondence between TEK and scientific results can be used to improve the reliability of information on natural systems and thus improve resource management. Considering both TEK and scientific information, we suggest that the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations in 2013 was 12 stable/increasing and one declining (Kane Basin). We do not find support for the perspective that polar bears within or shared with Canada are currently in any sort of climate crisis. We suggest that monitoring the impacts of climate change (including sea ice decline) on polar bear subpopulations should be continued and enhanced and that adaptive management practices are warranted.

2012 Annual Survey of Journalism and Mass Communication Enrollments: Enrollments Decline for Second Year in a Row

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Becker, Lee B.; Vlad, Tudor; Simpson, Holly Anne

2013-01-01

Enrollments in journalism and mass communication programs in the United States have declined over the last two years, reversing a pattern of growth that has sustained the field for twenty years. It is a decline at a time of continued growth in enrollments at universities generally. It is a decline at a time when enrollments have been growing in…

Continued Declines in Teen Births in the United States, 2015.

PubMed

Hamilton, Brady E; Mathews, T J

2016-09-01

•The teen birth rate declined to another historic low for the United States in 2015, down 8% from 2014 to 22.3 births per 1,000 females aged 15-19. •The birth rates for teenagers aged 15-17 and 18-19 declined in 2015 to 9.9 and 40.7, respectively, which are record lows for both groups. •In 2015, birth rates declined to 6.9 for Asian or Pacific Islander, 16.0 for non-Hispanic white, 25.7 for American Indian or Alaska Native, 31.8 for non-Hispanic black, and 34.9 for Hispanic female teenagers aged 15-19. •Birth rates fell to record lows for nearly all race and Hispanic-origin groups of females aged 15-19, 15-17, and 18-19 in 2015. The birth rate for teenagers aged 15-19 has fallen almost continuously since 1991, reaching historic lows for the nation every year since 2009 (1-4). Despite declines in all racial and ethnic groups, teen birth rates continue to vary considerably by race and ethnicity. Moreover, the U.S. teen birth rate remains higher than in other industrialized countries (5). Childbearing by teenagers continues to be a matter of public concern. This report presents the recent and long-term trends and disparity in teen childbearing by race and Hispanic origin. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

The leaky pipeline: factors associated with early decline in interest in premedical studies among underrepresented minority undergraduate students.

PubMed

Barr, Donald A; Gonzalez, Maria Elena; Wanat, Stanley F

2008-05-01

To determine the causes among underrepresented racial and ethnic minority groups (URM) of a decline in interest during the undergraduate years in pursuing a career in medicine. From fall 2002 through 2007, the authors conducted a longitudinal study of 362 incoming Stanford freshmen (23% URM) who indicated on a freshman survey that they hoped to become physicians. Using a 10-point scale of interest, the authors measured the change in students' levels of interest in continuing premedical studies between the beginning of freshman year and the end of sophomore year. Follow-up interviews were conducted with 68 participants, approximately half of whom had experienced decreases in interest in continuing as premeds, and half of whom who had experienced increases in interest. URM students showed a larger decline in interest than did non-URM students; women showed a larger decline than did men, independent of race or ethnicity. The authors found no association between scholastic ability as measured by SAT scores and changes in level of interest. The principal reason given by students for their loss of interest in continuing as premeds was a negative experience in one or more chemistry courses. Students also identified problems in the university's undergraduate advising system as a contributor. Largely because of negative experiences with chemistry classes, URM students and women show a disproportionate decline in interest in continuing in premedical studies, with the result that fewer apply to medical school.

Maintaining Momentum and Quality in a Time of Decline: A Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Potter, David; And Others

1992-01-01

A discussion of the response of George Mason University (Virginia) to economic decline in 1989-92 looks at four stages in the downturn and examines a variety of planning and policy issues, including management of both unplanned and planned reductions, continued uncertainty, politics of decline, organizational communication and morale,…

Living actively in the face of impending death: constantly adjusting to bodily decline at the end-of-life.

PubMed

Morgan, Deidre D; Currow, David C; Denehy, Linda; Aranda, Sanchia A

2017-06-01

People with advanced cancer experience bodily change resulting in debilitating functional decline. Although inability to participate in everyday activities (occupation) contributes to profound suffering, limited research has examined the relationship between altered bodily experience (embodiment) and functional ability. The purpose of this study was to better understand the lived experience of functional decline for people with advanced cancer living at home. Indepth interviews were conducted with 10 community dwelling people with advanced cancer about their bodily experiences of functional decline. This study employed a pragmatic qualitative approach, informed by hermeneutic phenomenology. People described living with rapidly disintegrating bodies and how this affected their ability to participate in everyday activities. Analysis identified themes which were evaluated against conceptual frameworks of 'occupation' and 'embodiment'. People experienced a shifting sense of self. They had to continuously reinterpret changing bodies. Previously automatic movements became disjointed and effortful. Simple actions like standing or getting out of bed required increasing concentration. Relentless bodily breakdown disrupted peoples' relationship with time, hindering their ability, but not their desire, to participate in everyday activities. Contending with this deterioration is the work of adaptation to functional decline at the end-of-life. This study highlights the role active participation in everyday activities plays in mediating adjustment to functional decline. These findings challenge us to look beyond palliation of physical symptoms and psychospiritual care as ends in themselves. Symptom control and palliation should be viewed as mechanisms to optimise active participation in essential and valued activities. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The Diversity-Weighted Living Planet Index: Controlling for Taxonomic Bias in a Global Biodiversity Indicator.

PubMed

McRae, Louise; Deinet, Stefanie; Freeman, Robin

2017-01-01

As threats to species continue to increase, precise and unbiased measures of the impact these pressures are having on global biodiversity are urgently needed. Some existing indicators of the status and trends of biodiversity largely rely on publicly available data from the scientific and grey literature, and are therefore prone to biases introduced through over-representation of well-studied groups and regions in monitoring schemes. This can give misleading estimates of biodiversity trends. Here, we report on an approach to tackle taxonomic and geographic bias in one such indicator (Living Planet Index) by accounting for the estimated number of species within biogeographical realms, and the relative diversity of species within them. Based on a proportionally weighted index, we estimate a global population decline in vertebrate species between 1970 and 2012 of 58% rather than 20% from an index with no proportional weighting. From this data set, comprising 14,152 populations of 3,706 species from 3,095 data sources, we also find that freshwater populations have declined by 81%, marine populations by 36%, and terrestrial populations by 38% when using proportional weighting (compared to trends of -46%, +12% and +15% respectively). These results not only show starker declines than previously estimated, but suggests that those species for which there is poorer data coverage may be declining more rapidly.

The Diversity-Weighted Living Planet Index: Controlling for Taxonomic Bias in a Global Biodiversity Indicator

PubMed Central

Deinet, Stefanie; Freeman, Robin

2017-01-01

As threats to species continue to increase, precise and unbiased measures of the impact these pressures are having on global biodiversity are urgently needed. Some existing indicators of the status and trends of biodiversity largely rely on publicly available data from the scientific and grey literature, and are therefore prone to biases introduced through over-representation of well-studied groups and regions in monitoring schemes. This can give misleading estimates of biodiversity trends. Here, we report on an approach to tackle taxonomic and geographic bias in one such indicator (Living Planet Index) by accounting for the estimated number of species within biogeographical realms, and the relative diversity of species within them. Based on a proportionally weighted index, we estimate a global population decline in vertebrate species between 1970 and 2012 of 58% rather than 20% from an index with no proportional weighting. From this data set, comprising 14,152 populations of 3,706 species from 3,095 data sources, we also find that freshwater populations have declined by 81%, marine populations by 36%, and terrestrial populations by 38% when using proportional weighting (compared to trends of -46%, +12% and +15% respectively). These results not only show starker declines than previously estimated, but suggests that those species for which there is poorer data coverage may be declining more rapidly. PMID:28045977

The Influence of Exotic Lady Beetle (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) Establishment on the Species Composition of the Native Lady Beetle Community in Missouri.

PubMed

Diepenbrock, Lauren M; Fothergill, Kent; Tindall, Kelly V; Losey, John E; Smyth, Rebecca R; Finke, Deborah L

2016-08-01

The diversity and abundance of native lady beetles (Coccinellidae) in North America has declined in recent decades. This decline is often correlated with the introduction and establishment of exotic lady beetle species, including Coccinella septempunctata L. and Harmonia axyridis Pallas, suggesting that exotic species precipitated the decline of native lady beetles. We examined species records of native coccinellids in Missouri over 118 yr and asked whether the species composition of the community experienced a shift following the establishment of the exotic species. We found that the contemporary native coccinellid community is different from the community that was present nearly a century ago. However, there was no evidence for a recent abrupt shift in composition triggered by the establishment of exotic species. Instead, our data suggest that the native lady beetle community has been undergoing consistent and gradual change over time, with some species decreasing in abundance and others increasing. While not excluding exotic species as a factor contributing to the decline of native lady beetle species, our findings suggest that other continuous factors, like land use change, may have played a more influential role in determining the composition of the native coccinellid communities within our region. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Frontal Gamma-Aminobutyric Acid Concentrations Are Associated With Cognitive Performance in Older Adults.

PubMed

Porges, Eric C; Woods, Adam J; Edden, Richard A E; Puts, Nicolaas A J; Harris, Ashley D; Chen, Huaihou; Garcia, Amanda M; Seider, Talia R; Lamb, Damon G; Williamson, John B; Cohen, Ronald A

2017-01-01

Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), the brain's principal inhibitory neurotransmitter, has been associated with perceptual and attentional functioning. Recent application of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) provides in vivo evidence for decreasing GABA concentrations during adulthood. It is unclear, however, how age-related decrements in cerebral GABA concentrations contribute to cognitive decline, or whether previously reported declines in cerebral GABA concentrations persist during healthy aging. We hypothesized that participants with higher GABA concentrations in the frontal cortex would exhibit superior cognitive function and that previously reported age-related decreases in cortical GABA concentrations continue into old age. We measured GABA concentrations in frontal and posterior midline cerebral regions using a Mescher-Garwood point-resolved spectroscopy (MEGA-PRESS) 1 H-MRS approach in 94 older adults without history or clinical evidence of mild cognitive impairment or dementia (mean age, 73 years). We administered the Montreal Cognitive Assessment to assess cognitive functioning. Greater frontal GABA concentrations were associated with superior cognitive performance. This relation remained significant after controlling for age, years of education, and brain atrophy. GABA concentrations in both frontal and posterior regions decreased as a function of age. These novel findings from a large, healthy, older population indicate that cognitive function is sensitive to cerebral GABA concentrations in the frontal cortex, and GABA concentration in frontal and posterior regions continue to decline in later age. These effects suggest that proton MRS may provide a clinically useful method for the assessment of normal and abnormal age-related cognitive changes and the associated physiological contributors.

Frontal Gamma-Aminobutyric Acid Concentrations Are Associated With Cognitive Performance in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Porges, Eric C.; Woods, Adam J.; Edden, Richard A.E.; Puts, Nicolaas A.J.; Harris, Ashley D.; Chen, Huaihou; Garcia, Amanda M.; Seider, Talia R.; Lamb, Damon G.; Williamson, John B.; Cohen, Ronald A.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), the brain’s principal inhibitory neurotransmitter, has been associated with perceptual and attentional functioning. Recent application of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) provides in vivo evidence for decreasing GABA concentrations during adulthood. It is unclear, however, how age-related decrements in cerebral GABA concentrations contribute to cognitive decline, or whether previously reported declines in cerebral GABA concentrations persist during healthy aging. We hypothesized that participants with higher GABA concentrations in the frontal cortex would exhibit superior cognitive function and that previously reported age-related decreases in cortical GABA concentrations continue into old age. METHODS We measured GABA concentrations in frontal and posterior midline cerebral regions using a Mescher-Garwood point-resolved spectroscopy (MEGA-PRESS) 1H-MRS approach in 94 older adults without history or clinical evidence of mild cognitive impairment or dementia (mean age, 73 years). We administered the Montreal Cognitive Assessment to assess cognitive functioning. RESULTS Greater frontal GABA concentrations were associated with superior cognitive performance. This relation remained significant after controlling for age, years of education, and brain atrophy. GABA concentrations in both frontal and posterior regions decreased as a function of age. CONCLUSIONS These novel findings from a large, healthy, older population indicate that cognitive function is sensitive to cerebral GABA concentrations in the frontal cortex, and GABA concentration in frontal and posterior regions continue to decline in later age. These effects suggest that proton MRS may provide a clinically useful method for the assessment of normal and abnormal age-related cognitive changes and the associated physiological contributors. PMID:28217759

Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink.

PubMed

Brienen, R J W; Phillips, O L; Feldpausch, T R; Gloor, E; Baker, T R; Lloyd, J; Lopez-Gonzalez, G; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A; Malhi, Y; Lewis, S L; Vásquez Martinez, R; Alexiades, M; Álvarez Dávila, E; Alvarez-Loayza, P; Andrade, A; Aragão, L E O C; Araujo-Murakami, A; Arets, E J M M; Arroyo, L; Aymard C, G A; Bánki, O S; Baraloto, C; Barroso, J; Bonal, D; Boot, R G A; Camargo, J L C; Castilho, C V; Chama, V; Chao, K J; Chave, J; Comiskey, J A; Cornejo Valverde, F; da Costa, L; de Oliveira, E A; Di Fiore, A; Erwin, T L; Fauset, S; Forsthofer, M; Galbraith, D R; Grahame, E S; Groot, N; Hérault, B; Higuchi, N; Honorio Coronado, E N; Keeling, H; Killeen, T J; Laurance, W F; Laurance, S; Licona, J; Magnussen, W E; Marimon, B S; Marimon-Junior, B H; Mendoza, C; Neill, D A; Nogueira, E M; Núñez, P; Pallqui Camacho, N C; Parada, A; Pardo-Molina, G; Peacock, J; Peña-Claros, M; Pickavance, G C; Pitman, N C A; Poorter, L; Prieto, A; Quesada, C A; Ramírez, F; Ramírez-Angulo, H; Restrepo, Z; Roopsind, A; Rudas, A; Salomão, R P; Schwarz, M; Silva, N; Silva-Espejo, J E; Silveira, M; Stropp, J; Talbot, J; ter Steege, H; Teran-Aguilar, J; Terborgh, J; Thomas-Caesar, R; Toledo, M; Torello-Raventos, M; Umetsu, R K; van der Heijden, G M F; van der Hout, P; Guimarães Vieira, I C; Vieira, S A; Vilanova, E; Vos, V A; Zagt, R J

2015-03-19

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

Sperm quality in New Zealand: Is the downward trend continuing?

PubMed

Birdsall, Mary A; Peek, John; Valiapan, Sumithra

2015-10-16

To investigate whether the decline in sperm concentration in New Zealand sperm donors observed from 1987 to 2007 continued in the period 2008-2014. A retrospective study from 2008 to 2014. The first semen sample of 285 men presenting as sperm donors in Auckland and Wellington was analysed for sperm concentration, seminal fluid volume and the percentage of motile sperm. These results were compared to results from 1987 to 2007 from the same clinics. The decline in semen volume and sperm concentration observed between 1987 and 2007 did not continue in 2008-2014. Sperm concentration decreased from 1987 until some time between 1997 and 2001, and has remained stable at an average of 62x106/ml between 2001 and 2014. Sperm motility declined significantly (8%) in the period 2008-2014, but there was no significant change over the total period studied, between 1987 and 2014. After a decline between 1987 and sometime during 1997-2001, the sperm concentration in men presenting as donors remained unchanged between 2002 and 2014, suggesting semen quality has not changed in New Zealand men over the last decade.

Factors Influencing the Decline in Stroke Mortality

PubMed Central

Lackland, Daniel T.; Roccella, Edward J.; Deutsch, Anne; Fornage, Myriam; George, Mary G.; Howard, George; Kissela, Brett; Kittner, Steven J.; Lichtman, Judith H.; Lisabeth, Lynda; Schwamm, Lee H.; Smith, Eric E.; Towfighi, Amytis

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose Stroke mortality has been declining since the early twentieth century. The reasons for this are not completely understood, although the decline is welcome. As a result of recent striking and more accelerated decreases in stroke mortality, stroke has fallen from the third to the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. This has prompted a detailed assessment of the factors associated with this decline. This review considers the evidence of various contributors to the decline in stroke risk and mortality and can be used in the design of future interventions regarding this major public health burden. Methods Writing group members were nominated by the committee chair and co-chair on the basis of their previous work in relevant topic areas and were approved by the American Heart Association (AHA) Stroke Council’s Scientific Statement Oversight Committee and the AHA’s Manuscript Oversight Committee. The writers used systematic literature reviews, references to published clinical and epidemiology studies, morbidity and mortality reports, clinical and public health guidelines, authoritative statements, personal files, and expert opinion to summarize evidence and indicate gaps in current knowledge. All members of the writing group had the opportunity to comment and approved the final version of this document. The document underwent extensive AHA internal peer review, Stroke Council Leadership review and Scientific Statements Oversight Committee review before consideration and approval by the AHA Science Advisory and Coordinating Committee. Results The decline in stroke mortality over the past decades represents a major improvement in population health and is observed for both genders, and all race and age groups. In addition to the overall impact on fewer lives lost to stroke, the major decline in stroke mortality seen among individuals less than 65 years of age represents a reduction on years of potential life lost. The decline in mortality results from reduced stroke incidence and lower case fatality rates. These significant improvements in stroke outcomes are concurrent with cardiovascular risk factor control interventions. While it is difficult to calculate specific attributable risk estimates, the hypertension control efforts initiated in the 1970s appears to have had the most substantial influence on the accelerated stroke mortality decline. Although implemented later in the time period, diabetes and dyslipidemia control and smoking cessation programs, particularly in combination with hypertension treatment, also appear to have contributed to the stroke mortality decline. Telemedicine and stroke systems of care, while showing strong potential effects, have not been in place long enough to show their influence on the decline. Other factors had probable effects, but additional studies are needed to determine their contributions. Conclusion The decline in stroke mortality is real and represents a major public health and clinical medicine success story. The repositioning of stroke from 3rd to 4th leading cause of death is the result of true mortality decline and not an increase of chronic lung disease mortality, which is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the United States. There is strong evidence the decline can be attributed to a combination of interventions and programs based on scientific findings and implemented with the purpose to reduce stroke risks, the most likely being improved hypertension control. Thus, research studies and the application of their findings to develop intervention programs have improved the health of the population. The continued application of aggressive evidence-based public health programs and clinical interventions are expected to result in further declines in stroke mortality. PMID:24309587

Cognitive Effects of Hormone Therapy Continuation or Discontinuation in a Sample of Women at Risk for Alzheimer Disease.

PubMed

Wroolie, Tonita E; Kenna, Heather A; Williams, Katherine E; Rasgon, Natalie L

2015-11-01

Use of estrogen-based hormone therapy (HT) as a protection from cognitive decline and Alzheimer disease (AD) is controversial, although cumulative data support HT use when initiated close to menopause onset with estrogen formulations containing 17β-estradiol preferable to conjugated equine estrogen formulations. Little is known regarding specific populations of women who may derive benefit from HT. Women with heightened risk for AD (aged 49-69), all of whom were taking HT for at least 1 year and most of whom initiated HT close to menopause onset, underwent cognitive assessment followed by randomization to continue or discontinue HT. Assessments were repeated at 2 years after randomization. Women who continued HT performed better on cognitive domains composed of measures of verbal memory and combined attention, working memory, and processing speed measures. Women who used 17β-estradiol versus conjugated equine estrogen, whether randomized to continue or discontinue HT, showed better verbal memory performance at the 2-year follow-up assessment. An interaction was also found with HT randomization and family history of AD in a first-degree relative. All female offspring of patients with AD declined in verbal memory; however, women who continued HT declined less than women who discontinued HT. Women without a first-degree relative with AD showed verbal memory improvement (likely because of practice effects) with continuance and declined with discontinuance of HT. Continuation of HT use appears to protect cognition in women with heightened risk for AD when initiated close to menopause onset. Copyright © 2015 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

J. Faaborg; W. J. Arendt; J. D. Toms; K. M. Dugger; W. A. Cox; M. Canals Mora

2013-01-01

Despite concern expressed two decades ago, there has been little recent discussion about continuing declines of migrant bird populations. Monitoring efforts have been focused almost exclusively on the breeding grounds. We describe the long-term decline of a winter-resident bird population in Guanica Commonwealth Forest, Puerto Rico, one of the last remaining tracts of...

Wetland habitats for wildlife of the Chesapeake Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, M.C.; Majumdar, S.K.; Miller, E.W.; Brenner, Fred J.

1998-01-01

The wetlands of Chesapeake Bay have provided the vital habitats that have sustained the impressive wildlife populations that have brought international fame to the Bay. As these wetland habitats decrease in quantity and quality we will continue to see the decline in the wildlife populations that started when European settlers first came to this continent. These declines have accelerated significantly in this century. As the human population continues to increase in the Bay watershed, one can expect that wetland habitats will continue to decline, resulting in declines in species diversity and population numbers. Although federal, state, and local governments are striving for 'no net loss' of wetlands, the results to date are not encouraging. It is unrealistic to believe that human populations and associated development can continue to increase and not adversely affect the wetland resources of the Bay. Restrictions on human population growth in the Chesapeake area is clearly the best way to protect wetland habitats and the wildlife that are dependent on these habitats. In addition, there should be more aggressive approaches to protect wetland habitats from continued perturbations from humans. More sanctuary areas should be created and there should be greater use of enhancement and management techniques that will benefit the full complement of species that potentially exist in these wetlands. The present trend in wetland loss can be expected to continue as human populations increase with resultant increases in roads, shopping malls, and housing developments. Creation of habitat for mitigation of these losses will not result in 'no net loss'. More innovative approaches should be employed to reverse the long-term trend in wetland loss by humans.

Does an expansion in private sector contraceptive supply increase inequality in modern contraceptive use?

PubMed

Agha, Sohail; Do, Mai

2008-11-01

To determine whether an expansion in private sector contraceptive supply is associated with increased socio-economic inequality in the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (MCPR inequality). Multiple rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys data were analysed for five countries that experienced an increase in the private sector supply of contraceptives: Morocco, Indonesia, Kenya, Ghana and Bangladesh. Information on household assets and amenities was used to construct wealth quintiles. A concentration index, which calculates the degree of inequality in contraceptive use by wealth, was calculated for each survey round. Socio-economic inequality in the MCPR (MCPR inequality) declined in Morocco and Indonesia, where substantial expansion in private sector contraceptive supply occurred. In both countries, poor women continued to rely heavily on contraceptives supplied by the public sector even as they increased use of contraceptives obtained from the private sector. A marginally significant decline in MCPR inequality occurred in Bangladesh, where the increase in private sector supply was modest. There was no significant overall change in MCPR inequality in Kenya or Ghana. In Kenya, this lack of significant overall change disguised trends moving in opposite directions in urban and rural areas. In urban Kenya, MCPR inequality declined as low-income urban women increased use of contraceptives obtained primarily from the public sector. In rural Kenya, MCPR inequality increased. This increase was associated with a decline in the supply of contraceptives by the public sector and non-governmental organizations to the poorest, rural, women. The study found no support for the hypothesis that an increase in private sector contraceptive supply leads to higher MCPR inequality. The findings suggest that continued public sector supply of contraceptives to the poorest women protects against increased MCPR inequality. The study highlights the role of the public sector in building contraceptive markets for the private sector to exploit.

Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, Flavio; Wahl, Eugene R.; Wood, Andrew W.; Blatchford, Douglas B.; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2017-05-01

Recent decades have seen strong trends in hydroclimate over the American Southwest, with major river basins such as the Rio Grande exhibiting intermittent drought and declining runoff efficiencies. The extent to which these observed trends are exceptional has implications for current water management and seasonal streamflow forecasting practices. We present a new reconstruction of runoff ratio for the Upper Rio Grande basin back to 1571 C.E., which provides evidence that the declining trend in runoff ratio from the 1980s to present day is unprecedented in context of the last 445 years. Though runoff ratio is found to vary primarily in proportion to precipitation, the reconstructions suggest a secondary influence of temperature. In years of low precipitation, very low runoff ratios are made 2.5-3 times more likely by high temperatures. This temperature sensitivity appears to have strengthened in recent decades, implying future water management vulnerability should recent warming trends in the region continue.