Rupture Propagation Imaging of Fluid Induced Events at the Basel EGS Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folesky, Jonas; Kummerow, Jörn; Shapiro, Serge A.

2014-05-01

The analysis of rupture properties using rupture propagation imaging techniques is a fast developing field of research in global seismology. Usually rupture fronts of large to megathrust earthquakes are subject of recent studies, like e.g. the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake or the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The back projection technique is the most prominent technique in this field. Here the seismograms recorded at an array or at a seismic network are back shifted to a grid of possible source locations via a special stacking procedure. This can provide information on the energy release and energy distribution of the rupture which then can be used to find estimates of event properties like location, rupture direction, rupture speed or length. The procedure is fast and direct and it only relies on a reasonable velocity model. Thus it is a good way to rapidly estimate the rupture properties and it can be used to confirm independently achieved event information. We adopted the back projection technique and put it in a microseismic context. We demonstrated its usage for multiple synthetic ruptures within a reservoir model of microseismic scale in earlier works. Our motivation hereby is the occurrence of relatively large, induced seismic events at a number of stimulated geothermal reservoirs or waste disposal sites, having magnitudes ML ≥ 3.4 and yielding rupture lengths of several hundred meters. We use the configuration of the seismic network and reservoir properties of the Basel Geothermal Site to build a synthetic model of a rupture by modeling the wave field of multiple spatio-temporal separated single sources using Finite-Difference modeling. The focus of this work is the application of the Back Projection technique and the demonstration of its feasibility to retrieve the rupture properties of real fluid induced events. We take four microseismic events with magnitudes from ML 3.1 to 3.4 and reconstruct source parameters like location, orientation and length. By comparison with our synthetic results as well as independent localization studies and source mechanism studies in this area we can show, that the obtained results are reasonable and that the application of back projection imaging is not only possible for microseismic datasets of respective quality, but that it provides important additional insights in the rupture process.

Source parameters controlling the generation and propagation of potential local tsunamis along the cascadia margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.; Yoshioka, S.

1996-01-01

The largest uncertainty in assessing hazards from local tsunamis along the Cascadia margin is estimating the possible earthquake source parameters. We investigate which source parameters exert the largest influence on tsunami generation and determine how each parameter affects the amplitude of the local tsunami. The following source parameters were analyzed: (1) type of faulting characteristic of the Cascadia subduction zone, (2) amount of slip during rupture, (3) slip orientation, (4) duration of rupture, (5) physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and (6) influence of secondary faulting. The effect of each of these source parameters on the quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is determined by using elastic three-dimensional, finite-element models. The propagation of the resulting tsunami is modeled both near the coastline using the two-dimensional (x-t) Peregrine equations that includes the effects of dispersion and near the source using the three-dimensional (x-y-t) linear long-wave equations. The source parameters that have the largest influence on local tsunami excitation are the shallowness of rupture and the amount of slip. In addition, the orientation of slip has a large effect on the directivity of the tsunami, especially for shallow dipping faults, which consequently has a direct influence on the length of coastline inundated by the tsunami. Duration of rupture, physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and secondary faulting all affect the excitation of tsunamis but to a lesser extent than the shallowness of rupture and the amount and orientation of slip. Assessment of the severity of the local tsunami hazard should take into account that relatively large tsunamis can be generated from anomalous 'tsunami earthquakes' that rupture within the accretionary wedge in comparison to interplate thrust earthquakes of similar magnitude. ?? 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Benchmarking Defmod, an open source FEM code for modeling episodic fault rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Chunfang

2017-03-01

We present Defmod, an open source (linear) finite element code that enables us to efficiently model the crustal deformation due to (quasi-)static and dynamic loadings, poroelastic flow, viscoelastic flow and frictional fault slip. Ali (2015) provides the original code introducing an implicit solver for (quasi-)static problem, and an explicit solver for dynamic problem. The fault constraint is implemented via Lagrange Multiplier. Meng (2015) combines these two solvers into a hybrid solver that uses failure criteria and friction laws to adaptively switch between the (quasi-)static state and dynamic state. The code is capable of modeling episodic fault rupture driven by quasi-static loadings, e.g. due to reservoir fluid withdraw or injection. Here, we focus on benchmarking the Defmod results against some establish results.

A Composite Source Model With Fractal Subevent Size Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burjanek, J.; Zahradnik, J.

A composite source model, incorporating different sized subevents, provides a pos- sible description of complex rupture processes during earthquakes. The number of subevents with characteristic dimension greater than R is proportional to R-2. The subevents do not overlap with each other, and the sum of their areas equals to the area of the target event (e.g. mainshock) . The subevents are distributed randomly over the fault. Each subevent is modeled as a finite source, using kinematic approach (radial rupture propagation, constant rupture velocity, boxcar slip-velocity function, with constant rise time on the subevent). The final slip at each subevent is related to its characteristic dimension, using constant stress-drop scaling. Variation of rise time with subevent size is a free parameter of modeling. The nucleation point of each subevent is taken as the point closest to mainshock hypocentre. The synthetic Green's functions are calculated by the discrete-wavenumber method in a 1D horizontally lay- ered crustal model in a relatively coarse grid of points covering the fault plane. The Green's functions needed for the kinematic model in a fine grid are obtained by cu- bic spline interpolation. As different frequencies may be efficiently calculated with different sampling, the interpolation simplifies and speeds-up the procedure signifi- cantly. The composite source model described above allows interpretation in terms of a kinematic model with non-uniform final slip and rupture velocity spatial distribu- tions. The 1994 Northridge earthquake (Mw = 6.7) is used as a validation event. The strong-ground motion modeling of the 1999 Athens earthquake (Mw = 5.9) is also performed.

Resolution and Trade-offs in Finite Fault Inversions for Large Earthquakes Using Teleseismic Signals (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lay, T.; Ammon, C. J.

2010-12-01

An unusually large number of widely distributed great earthquakes have occurred in the past six years, with extensive data sets of teleseismic broadband seismic recordings being available in near-real time for each event. Numerous research groups have implemented finite-fault inversions that utilize the rapidly accessible teleseismic recordings, and slip models are regularly determined and posted on websites for all major events. The source inversion validation project has already demonstrated that for events of all sizes there is often significant variability in models for a given earthquake. Some of these differences can be attributed to variations in data sets and procedures used for including signals with very different bandwidth and signal characteristics into joint inversions. Some differences can also be attributed to choice of velocity structure and data weighting. However, our experience is that some of the primary causes of solution variability involve rupture model parameterization and imposed kinematic constraints such as rupture velocity and subfault source time function description. In some cases it is viable to rapidly perform separate procedures such as teleseismic array back-projection or surface wave directivity analysis to reduce the uncertainties associated with rupture velocity, and it is possible to explore a range of subfault source parameterizations to place some constraints on which model features are robust. In general, many such tests are performed, but not fully described, with single model solutions being posted or published, with limited insight into solution confidence being conveyed. Using signals from recent great earthquakes in the Kuril Islands, Solomon Islands, Peru, Chile and Samoa, we explore issues of uncertainty and robustness of solutions that can be rapidly obtained by inversion of teleseismic signals. Formalizing uncertainty estimates remains a formidable undertaking and some aspects of that challenge will be addressed.

Determine Earthquake Rupture Directivity Using Taiwan TSMIP Strong Motion Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Kaiwen; Chi, Wu-Cheng; Lai, Ying-Ju; Gung, YuanCheng

2013-04-01

Inverting seismic waveforms for the finite fault source parameters is important for studying the physics of earthquake rupture processes. It is also significant to image seismogenic structures in urban areas. Here we analyze the finite-source process and test for the causative fault plane using the accelerograms recorded by the Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) stations. The point source parameters for the mainshock and aftershocks were first obtained by complete waveform moment tensor inversions. We then use the seismograms generated by the aftershocks as empirical Green's functions (EGFs) to retrieve the apparent source time functions (ASTFs) of near-field stations using projected Landweber deconvolution approach. The method for identifying the fault plane relies on the spatial patterns of the apparent source time function durations which depend on the angle between rupture direction and the take-off angle and azimuth of the ray. These derived duration patterns then are compared with the theoretical patterns, which are functions of the following parameters, including focal depth, epicentral distance, average crustal 1D velocity, fault plane attitude, and rupture direction on the fault plane. As a result, the ASTFs derived from EGFs can be used to infer the ruptured fault plane and the rupture direction. Finally we used part of the catalogs to study important seismogenic structures in the area near Chiayi, Taiwan, where a damaging earthquake has occurred about a century ago. The preliminary results show a strike-slip earthquake on 22 October 1999 (Mw 5.6) has ruptured unilaterally toward SSW on a sub-vertical fault. The procedure developed from this study can be applied to other strong motion waveforms recorded from other earthquakes to better understand their kinematic source parameters.

The Earthquake Source Inversion Validation (SIV) - Project: Summary, Status, Outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. M.

2017-12-01

Finite-fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time-dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, this kinematic source inversion is ill-posed and returns non-unique solutions, as seen for instance in multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, that often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in earthquake-source inversions and to understand strengths and weaknesses of various methods, the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project developed a set of forward-modeling exercises and inversion benchmarks. Several research teams then use these validation exercises to test their codes and methods, but also to develop and benchmark new approaches. In this presentation I will summarize the SIV strategy, the existing benchmark exercises and corresponding results. Using various waveform-misfit criteria and newly developed statistical comparison tools to quantify source-model (dis)similarities, the SIV platforms is able to rank solutions and identify particularly promising source inversion approaches. Existing SIV exercises (with related data and descriptions) and all computational tools remain available via the open online collaboration platform; additional exercises and benchmark tests will be uploaded once they are fully developed. I encourage source modelers to use the SIV benchmarks for developing and testing new methods. The SIV efforts have already led to several promising new techniques for tackling the earthquake-source imaging problem. I expect that future SIV benchmarks will provide further innovations and insights into earthquake source kinematics that will ultimately help to better understand the dynamics of the rupture process.

Finite element model of size, shape and blood pressure on rupture of intracranial saccular aneurysms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rica Nabong, Jennica; David, Guido

2017-10-01

Rupture of intracranial saccular aneurysms is a primary concern for neurologists and patients because it leads to stroke and permanent disability. This paper examines the role of blood pressure, in connection with size of and wall thickness, in the rupture of saccular aneurysms. A bulb-shaped geometry of a saccular aneurysm is obtained from angiographic images of a patient and modeled using Finite Elements based on the principle of virtual work under the Fung stress-strain relationship. The numerical model is subjected to varying levels of systolic blood pressure. Rupture is assumed to occur when the wall stress exceeded its mechanical strength. The results show which sizes of this class of aneurysms are at high risk of rupture for varying levels of blood pressure.

Forecasting the Rupture Directivity of Large Earthquakes: Centroid Bias of the Conditional Hypocenter Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, J.; Jordan, T. H.

2012-12-01

Forecasting the rupture directivity of large earthquakes is an important problem in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), because directivity is known to strongly influence ground motions. We describe how rupture directivity can be forecast in terms of the "conditional hypocenter distribution" or CHD, defined to be the probability distribution of a hypocenter given the spatial distribution of moment release (fault slip). The simplest CHD is a uniform distribution, in which the hypocenter probability density equals the moment-release probability density. For rupture models in which the rupture velocity and rise time depend only on the local slip, the CHD completely specifies the distribution of the directivity parameter D, defined in terms of the degree-two polynomial moments of the source space-time function. This parameter, which is zero for a bilateral rupture and unity for a unilateral rupture, can be estimated from finite-source models or by the direct inversion of seismograms (McGuire et al., 2002). We compile D-values from published studies of 65 large earthquakes and show that these data are statistically inconsistent with the uniform CHD advocated by McGuire et al. (2002). Instead, the data indicate a "centroid biased" CHD, in which the expected distance between the hypocenter and the hypocentroid is less than that of a uniform CHD. In other words, the observed directivities appear to be closer to bilateral than predicted by this simple model. We discuss the implications of these results for rupture dynamics and fault-zone heterogeneities. We also explore their PSHA implications by modifying the CyberShake simulation-based hazard model for the Los Angeles region, which assumed a uniform CHD (Graves et al., 2011).

Teleseismic Body Wave Analysis for the 27 September 2003 Altai, Earthquake (Mw7.4) and Large Aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez-Gonzalez, J. M.; Mellors, R.

2007-05-01

We investigate the kinematics of the rupture process for the September 27, 2003, Mw7.3, Altai earthquake and its associated large aftershocks. This is the largest earthquake striking the Altai mountains within the last 50 years, which provides important constraints on the ongoing tectonics. The fault plane solution obtained by teleseismic body waveform modeling indicated a predominantly strike-slip event (strike=130, dip=75, rake 170), Scalar moment for the main shock ranges from 0.688 to 1.196E+20 N m, a source duration of about 20 to 42 s, and an average centroid depth of 10 km. Source duration would indicate a fault length of about 130 - 270 km. The main shock was followed closely by two aftershocks (Mw5.7, Mw6.4) occurred the same day, another aftershock (Mw6.7) occurred on 1 October , 2003. We also modeled the second aftershock (Mw6.4) to asses geometric similarities during their respective rupture process. This aftershock occurred spatially very close to the mainshock and possesses a similar fault plane solution (strike=128, dip=71, rake=154), and centroid depth (13 km). Several local conditions, such as the crustal model and fault geometry, affect the correct estimation of some source parameters. We perfume a sensitivity evaluation of several parameters, including centroid depth, scalar moment and source duration, based on a point and finite source modeling. The point source approximation results are the departure parameters for the finite source exploration. We evaluate the different reported parameters to discard poor constrained models. In addition, deformation data acquired by InSAR are also included in the analysis.

Source Rupture Models and Tsunami Simulations of Destructive October 28, 2012 Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia (Mw: 7.8) and September 16, 2015 Illapel, Chile (Mw: 8.3) Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taymaz, Tuncay; Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Ulutaş, Ergin

2016-04-01

The finite-fault source rupture models and numerical simulations of tsunami waves generated by 28 October 2012 Queen Charlotte Islands (Mw: 7.8), and 16 September 2015 Illapel-Chile (Mw: 8.3) earthquakes are presented. These subduction zone earthquakes have reverse faulting mechanisms with small amount of strike-slip components which clearly reflect the characteristics of convergence zones. The finite-fault slip models of the 2012 Queen Charlotte and 2015 Chile earthquakes are estimated from a back-projection method that uses teleseismic P- waveforms to integrate the direct P-phase with reflected phases from structural discontinuities near the source. Non-uniform rupture models of the fault plane, which are obtained from the finite fault modeling, are used in order to describe the vertical displacement on seabed. In general, the vertical displacement of water surface was considered to be the same as ocean bottom displacement, and it is assumed to be responsible for the initial water surface deformation gives rise to occurrence of tsunami waves. In this study, it was calculated by using the elastic dislocation algorithm. The results of numerical tsunami simulations are compared with tide gauges and Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) buoy records. De-tiding, de-trending, low-pass and high-pass filters were applied to detect tsunami waves in deep ocean sensors and tide gauge records. As an example, the observed records and results of simulations showed that the 2012 Queen Charlotte Islands earthquake generated about 1 meter tsunami-waves in Maui and Hilo (Hawaii), 5 hours and 30 minutes after the earthquake. Furthermore, the calculated amplitudes and time series of the tsunami waves of the recent 2015 Illapel (Chile) earthquake are exhibiting good agreement with the records of tide and DART gauges except at stations Valparaiso and Pichidangui (Chile). This project is supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK Project No: CAYDAG-114Y066).

A formulation of directivity for earthquake sources using isochrone theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spudich, Paul; Chiou, Brian S.J.; Graves, Robert; Collins, Nancy; Somerville, Paul

2004-01-01

A functional form for directivity effects can be derived from isochrone theory, in which the measure of the directivity-induced amplification of an S body wave is c, the isochrone velocity. Ground displacement of the near-, intermediate-, and far-field terms of P and S waves is linear in isochrone velocity for a finite source in a whole space. We have developed an approximation c-tilde-prime of isochrone velocity that can easily be implemented as a predictor of directivity effects in empirical ground motion prediction relations. Typically, for a given fault surface, hypocenter, and site geometry, c-tilde-prime is a simple function of the hypocentral distance, the rupture distance, the crustal shear wave speed in the seismogenic zone, and the rupture velocity. c-tilde-prime typically ranges in the interval 0.44, for rupture away from the station, to about 4, for rupture toward the station. In this version of the theory directivity is independent of period. Additionally, we have created another functional form which is c-tilde-prime modified to include the approximate radiation pattern of a finite fault having a given rake. This functional form can be used to model the spatial variations of fault-parallel and fault-normal horizontal ground motions. The strengths of this formulation are 1) the proposed functional form is based on theory, 2) the predictor is unambiguously defined for all possible site locations and source rakes, and 3) it can easily be implemented for well-studied important previous earthquakes. We compare predictions of our functional form with synthetic ground motions calculated for finite strike-slip and dip-slip faults in the magnitude range 6.5 - 7.5. In general our functional form correlates best with computed fault-normal and fault-parallel motions in the synthetic motions calculated for events with M6.5. Correlation degrades but is still useful for larger events and for the geometric average horizontal motions. We have had limited success applying it to geometrically complicated faults.

Uncertainties in the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman source through nonlinear stochastic inversion of tsunami waves

PubMed Central

Venugopal, M.; Roy, D.; Rajendran, K.; Guillas, S.; Dias, F.

2017-01-01

Numerical inversions for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data usually incorporate subjective elements to stabilize the search. In addition, noisy and possibly insufficient data result in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions, which are barely acknowledged. Here, we employ the satellite altimetry data for the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunami event to invert the source parameters. We also include kinematic parameters that improve the description of tsunami generation and propagation, especially near the source. Using a finite fault model that represents the extent of rupture and the geometry of the trench, we perform a new type of nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints. Despite persistently good waveform fits, large uncertainties in the joint parameter distribution constitute a remarkable feature of the inversion. These uncertainties suggest that objective inversion strategies should incorporate more sophisticated physical models of seabed deformation in order to significantly improve the performance of early warning systems. PMID:28989311

Uncertainties in the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman source through nonlinear stochastic inversion of tsunami waves.

PubMed

Gopinathan, D; Venugopal, M; Roy, D; Rajendran, K; Guillas, S; Dias, F

2017-09-01

Numerical inversions for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data usually incorporate subjective elements to stabilize the search. In addition, noisy and possibly insufficient data result in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions, which are barely acknowledged. Here, we employ the satellite altimetry data for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami event to invert the source parameters. We also include kinematic parameters that improve the description of tsunami generation and propagation, especially near the source. Using a finite fault model that represents the extent of rupture and the geometry of the trench, we perform a new type of nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints. Despite persistently good waveform fits, large uncertainties in the joint parameter distribution constitute a remarkable feature of the inversion. These uncertainties suggest that objective inversion strategies should incorporate more sophisticated physical models of seabed deformation in order to significantly improve the performance of early warning systems.

Insight into the rupture process of a rare tsunami earthquake from near-field high-rate GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macpherson, K. A.; Hill, E. M.; Elosegui, P.; Banerjee, P.; Sieh, K. E.

2011-12-01

We investigated the rupture duration and velocity of the October 25, 2010 Mentawai earthquake by examining high-rate GPS displacement data. This Mw=7.8 earthquake appears to have ruptured either an up-dip part of the Sumatran megathrust or a fore-arc splay fault, and produced tsunami run-ups on nearby islands that were out of proportion with its magnitude. It has been described as a so-called "slow tsunami earthquake", characterised by a dearth of high-frequency signal and long rupture duration in low-strength, near-surface media. The event was recorded by the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr), a network of high-rate (1 sec) GPS sensors located on the nearby islands of the Sumatran fore-arc. For this study, the 1 sec time series from 8 SuGAr stations were selected for analysis due to their proximity to the source and high-quality recordings of both static displacements and dynamic waveforms induced by surface waves. The stations are located at epicentral distances of between 50 and 210 km, providing a unique opportunity to observe the dynamic source processes of a tsunami earthquake from near-source, high-rate GPS. We estimated the rupture duration and velocity by simulating the rupture using the spectral finite-element method SPECFEM and comparing the synthetic time series to the observed surface waves. A slip model from a previous study, derived from the inversion of GPS static offsets and tsunami data, and the CRUST2.0 3D velocity model were used as inputs for the simulations. Rupture duration and velocity were varied for a suite of simulations in order to determine the parameters that produce the best-fitting waveforms.

Facilitating open global data use in earthquake source modelling to improve geodetic and seismological approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Steinberg, Andreas; Isken, Marius; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes

2017-04-01

In the last few years impressive achievements have been made in improving inferences about earthquake sources by using InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) data. Several factors aided these developments. The open data basis of earthquake observations has expanded vastly with the two powerful Sentinel-1 SAR sensors up in space. Increasing computer power allows processing of large data sets for more detailed source models. Moreover, data inversion approaches for earthquake source inferences are becoming more advanced. By now data error propagation is widely implemented and the estimation of model uncertainties is a regular feature of reported optimum earthquake source models. Also, more regularly InSAR-derived surface displacements and seismological waveforms are combined, which requires finite rupture models instead of point-source approximations and layered medium models instead of homogeneous half-spaces. In other words the disciplinary differences in geodetic and seismological earthquake source modelling shrink towards common source-medium descriptions and a source near-field/far-field data point of view. We explore and facilitate the combination of InSAR-derived near-field static surface displacement maps and dynamic far-field seismological waveform data for global earthquake source inferences. We join in the community efforts with the particular goal to improve crustal earthquake source inferences in generally not well instrumented areas, where often only the global backbone observations of earthquakes are available provided by seismological broadband sensor networks and, since recently, by Sentinel-1 SAR acquisitions. We present our work on modelling standards for the combination of static and dynamic surface displacements in the source's near-field and far-field, e.g. on data and prediction error estimations as well as model uncertainty estimation. Rectangular dislocations and moment-tensor point sources are exchanged by simple planar finite rupture models. 1d-layered medium models are implemented for both near- and far-field data predictions. A highlight of our approach is a weak dependence on earthquake bulletin information: hypocenter locations and source origin times are relatively free source model parameters. We present this harmonized source modelling environment based on example earthquake studies, e.g. the 2010 Haiti earthquake, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and others. We discuss the benefit of combined-data non-linear modelling on the resolution of first-order rupture parameters, e.g. location, size, orientation, mechanism, moment/slip and rupture propagation. The presented studies apply our newly developed software tools which build up on the open-source seismological software toolbox pyrocko (www.pyrocko.org) in the form of modules. We aim to facilitate a better exploitation of open global data sets for a wide community studying tectonics, but the tools are applicable also for a large range of regional to local earthquake studies. Our developments therefore ensure a large flexibility in the parametrization of medium models (e.g. 1d to 3d medium models), source models (e.g. explosion sources, full moment tensor sources, heterogeneous slip models, etc) and of the predicted data (e.g. (high-rate) GPS, strong motion, tilt). This work is conducted within the project "Bridging Geodesy and Seismology" (www.bridges.uni-kiel.de) funded by the German Research Foundation DFG through an Emmy-Noether grant.

Comparison of actual and seismologically inferred stress drops in dynamic models of microseismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y. Y.; Lapusta, N.

2017-12-01

Estimating source parameters for small earthquakes is commonly based on either Brune or Madariaga source models. These models assume circular rupture that starts from the center of a fault and spreads axisymmetrically with a constant rupture speed. The resulting stress drops are moment-independent, with large scatter. However, more complex source behaviors are commonly discovered by finite-fault inversions for both large and small earthquakes, including directivity, heterogeneous slip, and non-circular shapes. Recent studies (Noda, Lapusta, and Kanamori, GJI, 2013; Kaneko and Shearer, GJI, 2014; JGR, 2015) have shown that slip heterogeneity and directivity can result in large discrepancies between the actual and estimated stress drops. We explore the relation between the actual and seismologically estimated stress drops for several types of numerically produced microearthquakes. For example, an asperity-type circular fault patch with increasing normal stress towards the middle of the patch, surrounded by a creeping region, is a potentially common microseismicity source. In such models, a number of events rupture the portion of the patch near its circumference, producing ring-like ruptures, before a patch-spanning event occurs. We calculate the far-field synthetic waveforms for our simulated sources and estimate their spectral properties. The distribution of corner frequencies over the focal sphere is markedly different for the ring-like sources compared to the Madariaga model. Furthermore, most waveforms for the ring-like sources are better fitted by a high-frequency fall-off rate different from the commonly assumed value of 2 (from the so-called omega-squared model), with the average value over the focal sphere being 1.5. The application of Brune- or Madariaga-type analysis to these sources results in the stress drops estimates different from the actual stress drops by a factor of up to 125 in the models we considered. We will report on our current studies of other types of seismic sources, such as repeating earthquakes and foreshock-like events, and whether the potentially realistic and common sources different from the standard Brune and Madariaga models can be identified from their focal spectral signatures and studied using a more tailored seismological analysis.

Best Practices in Physics-Based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalguer, Luis A.; Fukushima, Yoshimitsu; Irikura, Kojiro; Wu, Changjiang

2017-09-01

Inspired by the first workshop on Best Practices in Physics-Based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations (BestPSHANI) conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on 18-20 November, 2015 in Vienna (http://www-pub.iaea.org/iaeameetings/50896/BestPSHANI), this PAGEOPH topical volume collects several extended articles from this workshop as well as several new contributions. A total of 17 papers have been selected on topics ranging from the seismological aspects of earthquake cycle simulations for source-scaling evaluation, seismic source characterization, source inversion and ground motion modeling (based on finite fault rupture using dynamic, kinematic, stochastic and empirical Green's functions approaches) to the engineering application of simulated ground motion for the analysis of seismic response of structures. These contributions include applications to real earthquakes and description of current practice to assess seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety in low seismicity areas, as well as proposals for physics-based hazard assessment for critical structures near large earthquakes. Collectively, the papers of this volume highlight the usefulness of physics-based models to evaluate and understand the physical causes of observed and empirical data, as well as to predict ground motion beyond the range of recorded data. Relevant importance is given on the validation and verification of the models by comparing synthetic results with observed data and empirical models.

The Kumamoto Mw7.1 mainshock: deep initiation triggered by the shallow foreshocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Q.; Wei, S.

2017-12-01

The Kumamoto Mw7.1 earthquake and its Mw6.2 foreshock struck the central Kyushu region in mid-April, 2016. The surface ruptures are characterized with multiple fault segments and a mix of strike-slip and normal motion extended from the intersection area of Hinagu and Futagawa faults to the southwest of Mt. Aso. Despite complex surface ruptures, most of the finite fault inversions use two fault segments to approximate the fault geometry. To study the rupture process and the complex fault geometry of this earthquake, we performed a multiple point source inversion for the mainshock using the data on 93 K-net and Kik-net stations. With path calibration from the Mw6.0 foreshock, we selected the frequency ranges for the Pnl waves (0.02 0.26 Hz) and surface waves (0.02 0.12 Hz), as well as the components that can be well modeled with the 1D velocity model. Our four-point-source results reveal a unilateral rupture towards Mt. Aso and varying fault geometries. The first sub-event is a high angle ( 79°) right-lateral strike-slip event at the depth of 16 km on the north end of the Hinagu fault. Notably the two M>6 foreshocks is located by our previous studies near the north end of the Hinagu fault at the depth of 5 9 km, which may give rise to the stress concentration at depth. The following three sub-events are distributed along the surface rupture of the Futagawa fault, with focal depths within 4 10 km. Their focal mechanisms present similar right-lateral fault slips with relatively small dip angles (62 67°) and apparent normal-fault component. Thus, the mainshock rupture initiated from the relatively deep part of the Hinagu fault and propagated through the fault-bend toward NE along the relatively shallow part of the Futagawa fault until it was terminated near Mt. Aso. Based on the four-point-source solution, we conducted a finite-fault inversion and obtained a kinematic rupture model of the mainshock. We then performed the Coulomb Stress analyses on the two foreshocks and the mainshock. The results support that the stress alternation after the foreshocks may have triggered the failure on the fault plane of the Mw7.1 earthquake. Therefore, the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence is dominated by a series of large triggering events whose initiation is associated with the geometric barrier in the intersection of the Futagawa and Hinagu faults.

Modeling 3D Dynamic Rupture on Arbitrarily-Shaped faults by Boundary-Conforming Finite Difference Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, D.; Zhu, H.; Luo, Y.; Chen, X.

2008-12-01

We use a new finite difference method (FDM) and the slip-weakening law to model the rupture dynamics of a non-planar fault embedded in a 3-D elastic media with free surface. The new FDM, based on boundary- conforming grid, sets up the mapping equations between the curvilinear coordinate and the Cartesian coordinate and transforms irregular physical space to regular computational space; it also employs a higher- order non-staggered DRP/opt MacCormack scheme which is of low dispersion and low dissipation so that the high accuracy and stability of our rupture modeling are guaranteed. Compared with the previous methods, not only we can compute the spontaneous rupture of an arbitrarily shaped fault, but also can model the influence of the surface topography on the rupture process of earthquake. In order to verify the feasibility of this method, we compared our results and other previous results, and found out they matched perfectly. Thanks to the boundary-conforming FDM, problems such as dynamic rupture with arbitrary dip, strike and rake over an arbitrary curved plane can be handled; and supershear or subshear rupture can be simulated with different parameters such as the initial stresses and the critical slip displacement Dc. Besides, our rupture modeling is economical to be implemented owing to its high efficiency and does not suffer from displacement leakage. With the help of inversion data of rupture by field observations, this method is convenient to model rupture processes and seismograms of natural earthquakes.

Rupture Dynamics and Ground Motion from Earthquakes in Heterogeneous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bydlon, S.; Dunham, E. M.; Kozdon, J. E.

2012-12-01

Heterogeneities in the material properties of Earth's crust scatter propagating seismic waves. The effects of scattered waves are reflected in the seismic coda and depend on the relative strength of the heterogeneities, spatial arrangement, and distance from source to receiver. In the vicinity of the fault, scattered waves influence the rupture process by introducing fluctuations in the stresses driving propagating ruptures. Further variability in the rupture process is introduced by naturally occurring geometric complexity of fault surfaces, and the stress changes that accompany slip on rough surfaces. We have begun a modeling effort to better understand the origin of complexity in the earthquake source process, and to quantify the relative importance of source complexity and scattering along the propagation path in causing incoherence of high frequency ground motion. To do this we extended our two-dimensional high order finite difference rupture dynamics code to accommodate material heterogeneities. We generate synthetic heterogeneous media using Von Karman correlation functions and their associated power spectral density functions. We then nucleate ruptures on either flat or rough faults, which obey strongly rate-weakening friction laws. Preliminary results for flat faults with uniform frictional properties and initial stresses indicate that off-fault material heterogeneity alone can lead to a complex rupture process. Our simulations reveal the excitation of high frequency bursts of waves, which radiate energy away from the propagating rupture. The average rupture velocity is thus reduced relative to its value in simulations employing homogeneous material properties. In the coming months, we aim to more fully explore parameter space by varying the correlation length, Hurst exponent, and amplitude of medium heterogeneities, as well as the statistical properties characterizing fault roughness.

Studying the Effects of Transparent vs. Opaque Shallow Thrust Faults Using Synthetic P and SH Seismograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. E.; Aagaard, B. T.; Heaton, T. H.

2001-12-01

It has been hypothesized (Brune, 1996) that teleseismic inversions may underestimate the moment of shallow thrust fault earthquakes if energy becomes trapped in the hanging wall of the fault, i.e. if the fault boundary becomes opaque. We address this by creating and analyzing synthetic P and SH seismograms for a variety of friction models. There are a total of five models: (1) crack model (slip weakening) with instantaneous healing (2) crack model without healing (3) crack model with zero sliding friction (4) pulse model (slip and rate weakening) (5) prescribed model (Haskell-like rupture with the same final slip and peak slip-rate as model 4). Models 1-4 are all dynamic models where fault friction laws determine the rupture history. This allows feedback between the ongoing rupture and waves from the beginning of the rupture that hit the surface and reflect downwards. Hence, models 1-4 can exhibit opaque fault characteristics. Model 5, a prescribed rupture, allows for no interaction between the rupture and reflected waves, therefore, it is a transparent fault. We first produce source time functions for the different friction models by rupturing shallow thrust faults in 3-D dynamic finite-element simulations. The source time functions are used as point dislocations in a teleseismic body-wave code. We examine the P and SH waves for different azimuths and epicentral distances. The peak P and S first arrival displacement amplitudes for the crack, crack with healing and pulse models are all very similar. These dynamic models with opaque faults produce smaller peak P and S first arrivals than the prescribed, transparent fault. For example, a fault with strike = 90 degrees, azimuth = 45 degrees has P arrivals smaller by about 30% and S arrivals smaller by about 15%. The only dynamic model that doesn't fit this pattern is the crack model with zero sliding friction. It oscillates around its equilibrium position; therefore, it overshoots and yields an excessively large peak first arrival. In general, it appears that the dynamic, opaque faults have smaller peak teleseismic displacements that would lead to lower moment estimates by a modest amount.

Rapid modeling of complex multi-fault ruptures with simplistic models from real-time GPS: Perspectives from the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowell, B.; Melgar, D.

2017-12-01

The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake is one of the most complex earthquakes in recent history, rupturing across at least 10 disparate faults with varying faulting styles, and exhibiting intricate surface deformation patterns. The complexity of this event has motivated the need for multidisciplinary geophysical studies to get at the underlying source physics to better inform earthquake hazards models in the future. However, events like Kaikoura beg the question of how well (or how poorly) such earthquakes can be modeled automatically in real-time and still satisfy the general public and emergency managers. To investigate this question, we perform a retrospective real-time GPS analysis of the Kaikoura earthquake with the G-FAST early warning module. We first perform simple point source models of the earthquake using peak ground displacement scaling and a coseismic offset based centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion. We predict ground motions based on these point sources as well as simple finite faults determined from source scaling studies, and validate against true recordings of peak ground acceleration and velocity. Secondly, we perform a slip inversion based upon the CMT fault orientations and forward model near-field tsunami maximum expected wave heights to compare against available tide gauge records. We find remarkably good agreement between recorded and predicted ground motions when using a simple fault plane, with the majority of disagreement in ground motions being attributable to local site effects, not earthquake source complexity. Similarly, the near-field tsunami maximum amplitude predictions match tide gauge records well. We conclude that even though our models for the Kaikoura earthquake are devoid of rich source complexities, the CMT driven finite fault is a good enough "average" source and provides useful constraints for rapid forecasting of ground motion and near-field tsunami amplitudes.

Fault slip and seismic moment of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake inferred from Japanese tsunami descriptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Satake, K.; Wang, K.; Atwater, B.F.

2003-01-01

The 1700 Cascadia earthquake attained moment magnitude 9 according to new estimates based on effects of its tsunami in Japan, computed coseismic seafloor deformation for hypothetical ruptures in Cascadia, and tsunami modeling in the Pacific Ocean. Reports of damage and flooding show that the 1700 Casscadia tsunami reached 1-5 m heights at seven shoreline sites in Japan. Three sets of estimated heights express uncertainty about location and depth of reported flooding, landward decline in tsunami heights from shorelines, and post-1700 land-level changes. We compare each set with tsunami heights computed from six Cascadia sources. Each source is vertical seafloor displacement calculated with a three-dimensional elastic dislocation model, for three sources the rupture extends the 1100 km length of the subduction zone and differs in width and shallow dip; for the other sources, ruptures of ordinary width extend 360-670 km. To compute tsunami waveforms, we use a linear long-wave approximation with a finite difference method, and we employ modern bathymetry with nearshore grid spacing as small as 0.4 km. The various combinations of Japanese tsunami heights and Cascadia sources give seismic moment of 1-9 ?? 1022 N m, equivalent to moment magnitude 8.7-9.2. This range excludes several unquantified uncertainties. The most likely earthquake, of moment magnitude 9.0, has 19 m of coseismic slip on an offshore, full-slip zone 1100 km long with linearly decreasing slip on a downdip partial-slip zone. The shorter rupture models require up to 40 m offshore slip and predict land-level changes inconsistent with coastal paleoseismological evidence. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Numerical comparisons of ground motion predictions with kinematic rupture modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Y. O.; Zurek, B.; Liu, F.; deMartin, B.; Lacasse, M. D.

2017-12-01

Recent advances in large-scale wave simulators allow for the computation of seismograms at unprecedented levels of detail and for areas sufficiently large to be relevant to small regional studies. In some instances, detailed information of the mechanical properties of the subsurface has been obtained from seismic exploration surveys, well data, and core analysis. Using kinematic rupture modeling, this information can be used with a wave propagation simulator to predict the ground motion that would result from an assumed fault rupture. The purpose of this work is to explore the limits of wave propagation simulators for modeling ground motion in different settings, and in particular, to explore the numerical accuracy of different methods in the presence of features that are challenging to simulate such as topography, low-velocity surface layers, and shallow sources. In the main part of this work, we use a variety of synthetic three-dimensional models and compare the relative costs and benefits of different numerical discretization methods in computing the seismograms of realistic-size models. The finite-difference method, the discontinuous-Galerkin method, and the spectral-element method are compared for a range of synthetic models having different levels of complexity such as topography, large subsurface features, low-velocity surface layers, and the location and characteristics of fault ruptures represented as an array of seismic sources. While some previous studies have already demonstrated that unstructured-mesh methods can sometimes tackle complex problems (Moczo et al.), we investigate the trade-off between unstructured-mesh methods and regular-grid methods for a broad range of models and source configurations. Finally, for comparison, our direct simulation results are briefly contrasted with those predicted by a few phenomenological ground-motion prediction equations, and a workflow for accurately predicting ground motion is proposed.

Resolution analysis of finite fault source inversion using one- and three-dimensional Green's functions 1. Strong motions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, R.W.; Wald, D.J.

2001-01-01

We develop a methodology to perform finite fault source inversions from strong motion data using Green's functions (GFs) calculated for a three-dimensional (3-D) velocity structure. The 3-D GFs are calculated numerically by inserting body forces at each of the strong motion sites and then recording the resulting strains along the target fault surface. Using reciprocity, these GFs can be recombined to represent the ground motion at each site for any (heterogeneous) slip distribution on the fault. The reciprocal formulation significantly reduces the required number of 3-D finite difference computations to at most 3NS, where NS is the number of strong motion sites used in the inversion. Using controlled numerical resolution tests, we have examined the relative importance of accurate GFs for finite fault source inversions which rely on near-source ground motions. These experiments use both 1-D and 3-D GFs in inversions for hypothetical rupture models in order (1) to analyze the ability of the 3-D methodology to resolve trade-offs between complex source phenomena and 3-D path effects, (2) to address the sensitivity of the inversion results to uncertainties in the 3-D velocity structure, and (3) to test the adequacy of the 1-D GF method when propagation effects are known to be three-dimensional. We find that given "data" from a prescribed 3-D Earth structure, the use of well-calibrated 3-D GFs in the inversion provides very good resolution of the assumed slip distribution, thus adequately separating source and 3-D propagation effects. In contrast, using a set of inexact 3-D GFs or a set of hybrid 1-D GFs allows only partial recovery of the slip distribution. These findings suggest that in regions of complex geology the use of well-calibrated 3-D GFs has the potential for increased resolution of the rupture process relative to 1-D GFs. However, realizing this full potential requires that the 3-D velocity model and associated GFs should be carefully validated against the true 3-D Earth structure before performing the inverse problem with actual data. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

Rapid Source Characterization of the 2011 Mw 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Gavin P.

2011-01-01

On March 11th, 2011, a moment magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck off the coast of northeast Honshu, Japan, generating what may well turn out to be the most costly natural disaster ever. In the hours following the event, the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center led a rapid response to characterize the earthquake in terms of its location, size, faulting source, shaking and slip distributions, and population exposure, in order to place the disaster in a framework necessary for timely humanitarian response. As part of this effort, fast finite-fault inversions using globally distributed body- and surface-wave data were used to estimate the slip distribution of the earthquake rupture. Models generated within 7 hours of the earthquake origin time indicated that the event ruptured a fault up to 300 km long, roughly centered on the earthquake hypocenter, and involved peak slips of 20 m or more. Updates since this preliminary solution improve the details of this inversion solution and thus our understanding of the rupture process. However, significant observations such as the up-dip nature of rupture propagation and the along-strike length of faulting did not significantly change, demonstrating the usefulness of rapid source characterization for understanding the first order characteristics of major earthquakes.

Three-dimensional curved grid finite-difference modelling for non-planar rupture dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhenguo; Zhang, Wei; Chen, Xiaofei

2014-11-01

In this study, we present a new method for simulating the 3-D dynamic rupture process occurring on a non-planar fault. The method is based on the curved-grid finite-difference method (CG-FDM) proposed by Zhang & Chen and Zhang et al. to simulate the propagation of seismic waves in media with arbitrary irregular surface topography. While keeping the advantages of conventional FDM, that is computational efficiency and easy implementation, the CG-FDM also is flexible in modelling the complex fault model by using general curvilinear grids, and thus is able to model the rupture dynamics of a fault with complex geometry, such as oblique dipping fault, non-planar fault, fault with step-over, fault branching, even if irregular topography exists. The accuracy and robustness of this new method have been validated by comparing with the previous results of Day et al., and benchmarks for rupture dynamics simulations. Finally, two simulations of rupture dynamics with complex fault geometry, that is a non-planar fault and a fault rupturing a free surface with topography, are presented. A very interesting phenomenon was observed that topography can weaken the tendency for supershear transition to occur when rupture breaks out at a free surface. Undoubtedly, this new method provides an effective, at least an alternative, tool to simulate the rupture dynamics of a complex non-planar fault, and can be applied to model the rupture dynamics of a real earthquake with complex geometry.

Calculation of earthquake rupture histories using a hybrid global search algorithm: Application to the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.

1996-01-01

A method is presented for the simultaneous calculation of slip amplitudes and rupture times for a finite fault using a hybrid global search algorithm. The method we use combines simulated annealing with the downhill simplex method to produce a more efficient search algorithm then either of the two constituent parts. This formulation has advantages over traditional iterative or linearized approaches to the problem because it is able to escape local minima in its search through model space for the global optimum. We apply this global search method to the calculation of the rupture history for the Landers, California, earthquake. The rupture is modeled using three separate finite-fault planes to represent the three main fault segments that failed during this earthquake. Both the slip amplitude and the time of slip are calculated for a grid work of subfaults. The data used consist of digital, teleseismic P and SH body waves. Long-period, broadband, and short-period records are utilized to obtain a wideband characterization of the source. The results of the global search inversion are compared with a more traditional linear-least-squares inversion for only slip amplitudes. We use a multi-time-window linear analysis to relax the constraints on rupture time and rise time in the least-squares inversion. Both inversions produce similar slip distributions, although the linear-least-squares solution has a 10% larger moment (7.3 ?? 1026 dyne-cm compared with 6.6 ?? 1026 dyne-cm). Both inversions fit the data equally well and point out the importance of (1) using a parameterization with sufficient spatial and temporal flexibility to encompass likely complexities in the rupture process, (2) including suitable physically based constraints on the inversion to reduce instabilities in the solution, and (3) focusing on those robust rupture characteristics that rise above the details of the parameterization and data set.

Developing a Near Real-time System for Earthquake Slip Distribution Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Li; Hsieh, Ming-Che; Luo, Yan; Ji, Chen

2016-04-01

Advances in observational and computational seismology in the past two decades have enabled completely automatic and real-time determinations of the focal mechanisms of earthquake point sources. However, seismic radiations from moderate and large earthquakes often exhibit strong finite-source directivity effect, which is critically important for accurate ground motion estimations and earthquake damage assessments. Therefore, an effective procedure to determine earthquake rupture processes in near real-time is in high demand for hazard mitigation and risk assessment purposes. In this study, we develop an efficient waveform inversion approach for the purpose of solving for finite-fault models in 3D structure. Full slip distribution inversions are carried out based on the identified fault planes in the point-source solutions. To ensure efficiency in calculating 3D synthetics during slip distribution inversions, a database of strain Green tensors (SGT) is established for 3D structural model with realistic surface topography. The SGT database enables rapid calculations of accurate synthetic seismograms for waveform inversion on a regular desktop or even a laptop PC. We demonstrate our source inversion approach using two moderate earthquakes (Mw~6.0) in Taiwan and in mainland China. Our results show that 3D velocity model provides better waveform fitting with more spatially concentrated slip distributions. Our source inversion technique based on the SGT database is effective for semi-automatic, near real-time determinations of finite-source solutions for seismic hazard mitigation purposes.

Simulated ground motion in Santa Clara Valley, California, and vicinity from M≥6.7 scenario earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmsen, Stephen C.; Hartzell, Stephen

2008-01-01

Models of the Santa Clara Valley (SCV) 3D velocity structure and 3D finite-difference software are used to predict ground motions from scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas (SAF), Monte Vista/Shannon, South Hayward, and Calaveras faults. Twenty different scenario ruptures are considered that explore different source models with alternative hypocenters, fault dimensions, and rupture velocities and three different velocity models. Ground motion from the full wave field up to 1 Hz is exhibited as maps of peak horizontal velocity and pseudospectral acceleration at periods of 1, 3, and 5 sec. Basin edge effects and amplification in sedimentary basins of the SCV are observed that exhibit effects from shallow sediments with relatively low shear-wave velocity (330 m/sec). Scenario earthquakes have been simulated for events with the following magnitudes: (1) M 6.8–7.4 Calaveras sources, (2) M 6.7–6.9 South Hayward sources, (3) M 6.7 Monte Vista/Shannon sources, and (4) M 7.1–7.2 Peninsula segment of the SAF sources. Ground motions are strongly influenced by source parameters such as rupture velocity, rise time, maximum depth of rupture, hypocenter, and source directivity. Cenozoic basins also exert a strong influence on ground motion. For example, the Evergreen Basin on the northeastern side of the SCV is especially responsive to 3–5-sec energy from most scenario earthquakes. The Cupertino Basin on the southwestern edge of the SCV tends to be highly excited by many Peninsula and Monte Vista fault scenarios. Sites over the interior of the Evergreen Basin can have long-duration coda that reflect the trapping of seismic energy within this basin. Plausible scenarios produce predominantly 5-sec wave trains with greater than 30 cm/sec sustained ground-motion amplitude with greater than 30 sec duration within the Evergreen Basin.

SEISRISK II; a computer program for seismic hazard estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bender, Bernice; Perkins, D.M.

1982-01-01

The computer program SEISRISK II calculates probabilistic ground motion values for use in seismic hazard mapping. SEISRISK II employs a model that allows earthquakes to occur as points within source zones and as finite-length ruptures along faults. It assumes that earthquake occurrences have a Poisson distribution, that occurrence rates remain constant during the time period considered, that ground motion resulting from an earthquake is a known function of magnitude and distance, that seismically homogeneous source zones are defined, that fault locations are known, that fault rupture lengths depend on magnitude, and that earthquake rates as a function of magnitude are specified for each source. SEISRISK II calculates for each site on a grid of sites the level of ground motion that has a specified probability of being exceeded during a given time period. The program was designed to process a large (essentially unlimited) number of sites and sources efficiently and has been used to produce regional and national maps of seismic hazard.}t is a substantial revision of an earlier program SEISRISK I, which has never been documented. SEISRISK II runs considerably [aster and gives more accurate results than the earlier program and in addition includes rupture length and acceleration variability which were not contained in the original version. We describe the model and how it is implemented in the computer program and provide a flowchart and listing of the code.

A source model of the 2014 South Napa Earthquake by the EGF broad-band strong ground motion simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, T.; Asano, K.; Kubo, H.

2014-12-01

The source model of the 2014 South Napa earthquake (Mw6.0) is estimated using broad band strong ground motion simulation by the empirical Green's function method (Irikura, 1986, Irikura et al., 1997). We used the CESMD strong motion data. Aftershock ground motion records of Mw3.6 which occurred at 05:33 on 24th August (PDT), are used as an empirical Green's function. We refer to the finite source model by Dreger et al. (2014) for setting the geometry of the source fault plane and the rupture velocity. We assume a single rectangular strong motion generation area (e.g. Miyake et al., 2003; Asano and Iwata, 2012). The seismic moment ratio between the target and EGF events is fixed from the moment magnitudes. As only five station data are available for the aftershock records, the size of SMGA area, rupture starting point, and the rise time on the SMGA are determined by the trial and error.　Preliminary SMGA model is 6x6km2 and the rupture mainly propagates WNW and shallower directions. The SMGA size we obtained follows the empirical relationship of Mw and SMGA size for the inland crustal events (Irikura and Miyake, 2011). Waveform fittings are fairly well at the near source station NHC (Huichica creek) and 68150 (Napa Collage), where as the fitting is not good at the south-side stations, 68206 (Crockett - Carquinez Br. Geotech Array) and 68310 (Vallejo - Hwy 37/Napa River E Geo. Array). Particularly, we did not succeed in explaining the high PGA at the 68206 surface station. We will try to improve our SMGA model and will discuss the origin of the high PGA observed at that station.

Exploring variations of earthquake moment on patches with heterogeneous strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y. Y.; Lapusta, N.

2016-12-01

Finite-fault inversions show that earthquake slip is typically non-uniform over the ruptured region, likely due to heterogeneity of the earthquake source. Observations also show that events from the same fault area can have the same source duration but different magnitude ranging from 0.0 to 2.0 (Lin et al., GJI, 2016). Strong heterogeneity in strength over a patch could provide a potential explanation of such behavior, with the event duration controlled by the size of the patch and event magnitude determined by how much of the patch area has been ruptured. To explore this possibility, we numerically simulate earthquake sequences on a rate-and-state fault, with a seismogenic patch governed by steady-state velocity-weakening friction surrounded by a steady-state velocity-strengthening region. The seismogenic patch contains strong variations in strength due to variable normal stress. Our long-term simulations of slip in this model indeed generate sequences of earthquakes of various magnitudes. In some seismic events, dynamic rupture cannot overcome areas with higher normal strength, and smaller events result. When the higher-strength areas are loaded by previous slip and rupture, larger events result, as expected. Our current work is directed towards exploring a range of such models, determining the variability in the seismic moment that they can produce, and determining the observable properties of the resulting events.

An unified numerical simulation of seismic ground motion, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations and tsunamis of 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Furumura, T.; Noguchi, S.; Takemura, S.; Iwai, K.; Lee, S.; Sakai, S.; Shinohara, M.

2011-12-01

The fault rupture of the 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) earthquake spread approximately 550 km by 260 km with a long source rupture duration of ~200 s. For such large earthquake with a complicated source rupture process the radiation of seismic wave from the source rupture and initiation of tsunami due to the coseismic deformation is considered to be very complicated. In order to understand such a complicated process of seismic wave, coseismic deformation and tsunami, we proposed a unified approach for total modeling of earthquake induced phenomena in a single numerical scheme based on a finite-difference method simulation (Maeda and Furumura, 2011). This simulation model solves the equation of motion of based on the linear elastic theory with equilibrium between quasi-static pressure and gravity in the water column. The height of tsunami is obtained from this simulation as a vertical displacement of ocean surface. In order to simulate seismic waves, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations, and tsunami from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we assembled a high-resolution 3D heterogeneous subsurface structural model of northern Japan. The area of simulation is 1200 km x 800 km and 120 km in depth, which have been discretized with grid interval of 1 km in horizontal directions and 0.25 km in vertical direction, respectively. We adopt a source-rupture model proposed by Lee et al. (2011) which is obtained by the joint inversion of teleseismic, near-field strong motion, and coseismic deformation. For conducting such a large-scale simulation, we fully parallelized our simulation code based on a domain-partitioning procedure which achieved a good speed-up by parallel computing up to 8192 core processors with parallel efficiency of 99.839%. The simulation result demonstrates clearly the process in which the seismic wave radiates from the complicated source rupture over the fault plane and propagating in heterogeneous structure of northern Japan. Then, generation of tsunami from coseismic ground deformation at sea floor due to the earthquake and propagation is also well demonstrated . The simulation also demonstrates that a very large slip up to 40 m at shallow plate boundary near the trench pushes up sea floor with source rupture propagation, and the highly elevated sea surface gradually start propagation as tsunamis due to the gravity. The result of simulation of vertical-component displacement waveform matches the ocean-bottom pressure gauge record which is installed just above the source fault area (Maeda et al., 2011) very consistently. Strong reverberation of the ocean-acoustic waves between sea surface and sea bottom particularly near the Japan Trench for long time after the source rupture ends is confirmed in the present simulation. Accordingly, long wavetrains of high-frequency ocean acoustic waves is developed and overlap to later tsunami waveforms as we found in the observations.

Earthquake scaling laws for rupture geometry and slip heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Mai, P. Martin; Goda, Katsuichiro

2016-04-01

We analyze an extensive compilation of finite-fault rupture models to investigate earthquake scaling of source geometry and slip heterogeneity to derive new relationships for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment. Our dataset comprises 158 earthquakes with a total of 316 rupture models selected from the SRCMOD database (http://equake-rc.info/srcmod). We find that fault-length does not saturate with earthquake magnitude, while fault-width reveals inhibited growth due to the finite seismogenic thickness. For strike-slip earthquakes, fault-length grows more rapidly with increasing magnitude compared to events of other faulting types. Interestingly, our derived relationship falls between the L-model and W-model end-members. In contrast, both reverse and normal dip-slip events are more consistent with self-similar scaling of fault-length. However, fault-width scaling relationships for large strike-slip and normal dip-slip events, occurring on steeply dipping faults (δ~90° for strike-slip faults, and δ~60° for normal faults), deviate from self-similarity. Although reverse dip-slip events in general show self-similar scaling, the restricted growth of down-dip fault extent (with upper limit of ~200 km) can be seen for mega-thrust subduction events (M~9.0). Despite this fact, for a given earthquake magnitude, subduction reverse dip-slip events occupy relatively larger rupture area, compared to shallow crustal events. In addition, we characterize slip heterogeneity in terms of its probability distribution and spatial correlation structure to develop a complete stochastic random-field characterization of earthquake slip. We find that truncated exponential law best describes the probability distribution of slip, with observable scale parameters determined by the average and maximum slip. Applying Box-Cox transformation to slip distributions (to create quasi-normal distributed data) supports cube-root transformation, which also implies distinctive non-Gaussian slip distributions. To further characterize the spatial correlations of slip heterogeneity, we analyze the power spectral decay of slip applying the 2-D von Karman auto-correlation function (parameterized by the Hurst exponent, H, and correlation lengths along strike and down-slip). The Hurst exponent is scale invariant, H = 0.83 (± 0.12), while the correlation lengths scale with source dimensions (seismic moment), thus implying characteristic physical scales of earthquake ruptures. Our self-consistent scaling relationships allow constraining the generation of slip-heterogeneity scenarios for physics-based ground-motion and tsunami simulations.

Salient Features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal Earthquake in Relation to Earthquake Cycle and Dynamic Rupture Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ampuero, J. P.; Meng, L.; Hough, S. E.; Martin, S. S.; Asimaki, D.

2015-12-01

Two salient features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake provide new opportunities to evaluate models of earthquake cycle and dynamic rupture. The Gorkha earthquake broke only partially across the seismogenic depth of the Main Himalayan Thrust: its slip was confined in a narrow depth range near the bottom of the locked zone. As indicated by the belt of background seismicity and decades of geodetic monitoring, this is an area of stress concentration induced by deep fault creep. Previous conceptual models attribute such intermediate-size events to rheological segmentation along-dip, including a fault segment with intermediate rheology in between the stable and unstable slip segments. We will present results from earthquake cycle models that, in contrast, highlight the role of stress loading concentration, rather than frictional segmentation. These models produce "super-cycles" comprising recurrent characteristic events interspersed by deep, smaller non-characteristic events of overall increasing magnitude. Because the non-characteristic events are an intrinsic component of the earthquake super-cycle, the notion of Coulomb triggering or time-advance of the "big one" is ill-defined. The high-frequency (HF) ground motions produced in Kathmandu by the Gorkha earthquake were weaker than expected for such a magnitude and such close distance to the rupture, as attested by strong motion recordings and by macroseismic data. Static slip reached close to Kathmandu but had a long rise time, consistent with control by the along-dip extent of the rupture. Moreover, the HF (1 Hz) radiation sources, imaged by teleseismic back-projection of multiple dense arrays calibrated by aftershock data, was deep and far from Kathmandu. We argue that HF rupture imaging provided a better predictor of shaking intensity than finite source inversion. The deep location of HF radiation can be attributed to rupture over heterogeneous initial stresses left by the background seismic activity. Earthquake cycle and dynamic rupture models containing deep asperities reproduce the slower spectral decay found in teleseismic spectra of the Gorkha earthquake and in subduction events in the deeper edge of the seismogenic zone.

Dual Megathrust Slip Behaviors of the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Huang, H.; Burgmann, R.; Ampuero, J. P.; Strader, A. E.

2014-12-01

The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A M 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of Northern Chile. This event was preceded by a 2-week-long foreshock sequence including a M 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes are found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock area, suggesting a large scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence time of repeating earthquakes highlights the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while other repeaters occurred both before and after the mainshock in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatial and temporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrate the essential role of propagating aseismic slip in leading up to the mainshock and aftershock activities. Various finite fault models indicate that the coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show slow initiation with low amplitude moment rate at low frequency (< 0.1 Hz), while back-projection shows a steady initiation at high frequency (> 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the high-frequency rupture remains within an area of low gravity anomaly, suggesting possible upper-crustal structures that promote high-frequency generation. Back-projection also shows an episode of reverse rupture propagation which suggests a delayed failure of asperities in the foreshock area. Our results highlight the complexity of the interactions between large-scale aseismic slow-slip and dynamic ruptures of megathrust earthquakes.

Estimating rupture distances without a rupture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Eric M.; Worden, Charles

2017-01-01

Most ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) require distances that are defined relative to a rupture model, such as the distance to the surface projection of the rupture (RJB) or the closest distance to the rupture plane (RRUP). There are a number of situations in which GMPEs are used where it is either necessary or advantageous to derive rupture distances from point-source distance metrics, such as hypocentral (RHYP) or epicentral (REPI) distance. For ShakeMap, it is necessary to provide an estimate of the shaking levels for events without rupture models, and before rupture models are available for events that eventually do have rupture models. In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, it is often convenient to use point-source distances for gridded seismicity sources, particularly if a preferred orientation is unknown. This avoids the computationally cumbersome task of computing rupture-based distances for virtual rupture planes across all strikes and dips for each source. We derive average rupture distances conditioned on REPI, magnitude, and (optionally) back azimuth, for a variety of assumed seismological constraints. Additionally, we derive adjustment factors for GMPE standard deviations that reflect the added uncertainty in the ground motion estimation when point-source distances are used to estimate rupture distances.

Automated rapid finite fault inversion for megathrust earthquakes: Application to the Maule (2010), Iquique (2014) and Illapel (2015) great earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, Roberto; Cummins, Phil; Dettmer, Jan

2016-04-01

Rapid estimation of the spatial and temporal rupture characteristics of large megathrust earthquakes by finite fault inversion is important for disaster mitigation. For example, estimates of the spatio-temporal evolution of rupture can be used to evaluate population exposure to tsunami waves and ground shaking soon after the event by providing more accurate predictions than possible with point source approximations. In addition, rapid inversion results can reveal seismic source complexity to guide additional, more detailed subsequent studies. This work develops a method to rapidly estimate the slip distribution of megathrust events while reducing subjective parameter choices by automation. The method is simple yet robust and we show that it provides excellent preliminary rupture models as soon as 30 minutes for three great earthquakes in the South-American subduction zone. This may slightly change for other regions depending on seismic station coverage but method can be applied to any subduction region. The inversion is based on W-phase data since it is rapidly and widely available and of low amplitude which avoids clipping at close stations for large events. In addition, prior knowledge of the slab geometry (e.g. SLAB 1.0) is applied and rapid W-phase point source information (time delay and centroid location) is used to constrain the fault geometry and extent. Since the linearization by multiple time window (MTW) parametrization requires regularization, objective smoothing is achieved by the discrepancy principle in two fully automated steps. First, the residuals are estimated assuming unknown noise levels, and second, seeking a subsequent solution which fits the data to noise level. The MTW scheme is applied with positivity constraints and a solution is obtained by an efficient non-negative least squares solver. Systematic application of the algorithm to the Maule (2010), Iquique (2014) and Illapel (2015) events illustrates that rapid finite fault inversion with teleseismic data is feasible and provides meaningful results. The results for the three events show excellent data fits and are consistent with other solutions showing most of the slip occurring close to the trench for the Maule an Illapel events and some deeper slip for the Iquique event. Importantly, the Illapel source model predicts tsunami waveforms of close agreement with observed waveforms. Finally, we develop a new Bayesian approach to approximate uncertainties as part of the rapid inversion scheme with positivity constraints. Uncertainties are estimated by approximating the posterior distribution as a multivariate log-normal distribution. While solving for the posterior adds some additional computational cost, we illustrate that uncertainty estimation is important for meaningful interpretation of finite fault models.

Finite Source Inversion for Laboratory Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, J. M.; Glaser, S. D.

2017-12-01

We produce finite source inversion results for laboratory earthquakes (LEQ) in PMMA confirmed by video recording of the fault contact. The LEQs are generated under highly controlled laboratory conditions and recorded by an array of absolutely calibrated acoustic emissions (AE) sensors. Following the method of Hartzell and Heaton (1983), we develop a solution using only the single-component AE sensors common in laboratory experiments. A set of calibration tests using glass capillary sources of varying size resolves the material characteristics and synthetic Green's Functions such that uncertainty in source location is reduced to 3σ<1mm; typical source radii are 1mm. Well-isolated events with corner frequencies on the order of 0.1 MHz (Mw -6) are recorded at 20 MHz and initially band-pass filtered from 0.1 to 1.0 MHz; in comparison, large earthquakes with corner frequencies around 0.1 Hz are commonly filtered from 0.1 to 1.0 Hz. We compare results of the inversion and video recording to slip distribution predicted by the Cattaneo partial slip asperity and numerical modeling. Not all asperities are large enough to resolve individually so some results must be interpreted as the smoothed effects of clusters of tiny contacts. For large asperities, partial slip is observed originating at the asperity edges and moving inward as predicted by the theory. Furthermore, expanding shear rupture fronts are observed as they reach resistive patches of asperities and halt or continue, depending on the relative energies of rupture and resistance.

Source Rupture Process of the 2016 Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, Earthquake Derived from Near-Source Strong-Motion Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, A.; Zhang, W.

2016-12-01

On 15 April, 2016 the great earthquake with magnitude Mw7.1 occurred in Kumamoto prefecture, Japan. The focal mechanism solution released by F-net located the hypocenter at 130.7630°E, 32.7545°N, at a depth of 12.45 km, and the strike, dip, and the rake angle of the fault were N226°E, 84° and -142° respectively. The epicenter distribution and focal mechanisms of aftershocks implied the mechanism of the mainshock might have changed in the source rupture process, thus a single focal mechanism was not enough to explain the observed data adequately. In this study, based on the inversion result of GNSS and InSAR surface deformation with active structures for reference, we construct a finite fault model with focal mechanism changes, and derive the source rupture process by multi-time-window linear waveform inversion method using the strong-motion data (0.05 1.0Hz) obtained by K-NET and KiK-net of Japan. Our result shows that the Kumamoto earthquake is a right-lateral strike slipping rupture event along the Futagawa-Hinagu fault zone, and the seismogenic fault is divided into a northern segment and a southern one. The strike and the dip of the northern segment are N235°E, 60° respectively. And for the southern one, they are N205°E, 72° respectively. The depth range of the fault model is consistent with the depth distribution of aftershocks, and the slip on the fault plane mainly concentrate on the northern segment, in which the maximum slip is about 7.9 meter. The rupture process of the whole fault continues for approximately 18-sec, and the total seismic moment released is 5.47×1019N·m (Mw 7.1). In addition, the essential feature of the distribution of PGV and PGA synthesized by the inversion result is similar to that of observed PGA and seismic intensity.

Prediction of broadband ground-motion time histories: Hybrid low/high-frequency method with correlated random source parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, P.; Archuleta, R.J.; Hartzell, S.H.

2006-01-01

We present a new method for calculating broadband time histories of ground motion based on a hybrid low-frequency/high-frequency approach with correlated source parameters. Using a finite-difference method we calculate low- frequency synthetics (< ∼1 Hz) in a 3D velocity structure. We also compute broadband synthetics in a 1D velocity model using a frequency-wavenumber method. The low frequencies from the 3D calculation are combined with the high frequencies from the 1D calculation by using matched filtering at a crossover frequency of 1 Hz. The source description, common to both the 1D and 3D synthetics, is based on correlated random distributions for the slip amplitude, rupture velocity, and rise time on the fault. This source description allows for the specification of source parameters independent of any a priori inversion results. In our broadband modeling we include correlation between slip amplitude, rupture velocity, and rise time, as suggested by dynamic fault modeling. The method of using correlated random source parameters is flexible and can be easily modified to adjust to our changing understanding of earthquake ruptures. A realistic attenuation model is common to both the 3D and 1D calculations that form the low- and high-frequency components of the broadband synthetics. The value of Q is a function of the local shear-wave velocity. To produce more accurate high-frequency amplitudes and durations, the 1D synthetics are corrected with a randomized, frequency-dependent radiation pattern. The 1D synthetics are further corrected for local site and nonlinear soil effects by using a 1D nonlinear propagation code and generic velocity structure appropriate for the site’s National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification. The entire procedure is validated by comparison with the 1994 Northridge, California, strong ground motion data set. The bias and error found here for response spectral acceleration are similar to the best results that have been published by others for the Northridge rupture.

Earthquake Source Inversion Blindtest: Initial Results and Further Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P.; Burjanek, J.; Delouis, B.; Festa, G.; Francois-Holden, C.; Monelli, D.; Uchide, T.; Zahradnik, J.

2007-12-01

Images of earthquake ruptures, obtained from modelling/inverting seismic and/or geodetic data exhibit a high degree in spatial complexity. This earthquake source heterogeneity controls seismic radiation, and is determined by the details of the dynamic rupture process. In turn, such rupture models are used for studying source dynamics and for ground-motion prediction. But how reliable and trustworthy are these earthquake source inversions? Rupture models for a given earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often display striking disparities (see http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/srcmod) However, well resolved, robust, and hence reliable source-rupture models are an integral part to better understand earthquake source physics and to improve seismic hazard assessment. Therefore it is timely to conduct a large-scale validation exercise for comparing the methods, parameterization and data-handling in earthquake source inversions.We recently started a blind test in which several research groups derive a kinematic rupture model from synthetic seismograms calculated for an input model unknown to the source modelers. The first results, for an input rupture model with heterogeneous slip but constant rise time and rupture velocity, reveal large differences between the input and inverted model in some cases, while a few studies achieve high correlation between the input and inferred model. Here we report on the statistical assessment of the set of inverted rupture models to quantitatively investigate their degree of (dis-)similarity. We briefly discuss the different inversion approaches, their possible strength and weaknesses, and the use of appropriate misfit criteria. Finally we present new blind-test models, with increasing source complexity and ambient noise on the synthetics. The goal is to attract a large group of source modelers to join this source-inversion blindtest in order to conduct a large-scale validation exercise to rigorously asses the performance and reliability of current inversion methods and to discuss future developments.

Dual megathrust slip behaviors of the 2014 Iquique earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Lingsen; Huang, Hui; Bürgmann, Roland; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Strader, Anne

2015-02-01

The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of northern Chile. This event was preceded by a long foreshock sequence including a 2-week-long migration of seismicity initiated by a Mw 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes were found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock hypocenter, suggesting a large-scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence times of the repeating earthquakes highlight the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while repeaters that occurred both before and after the mainshock were in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatiotemporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrates the essential role of propagating aseismic slip leading up to the mainshock and illuminates the distribution of postseismic afterslip. Various finite fault models indicate that the largest coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show an emergent onset of moment rate at low frequency (< 0.1 Hz), while back-projection shows a steady increase of high frequency power (> 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the rupture expands in rich bursts along the rim of a semi-elliptical region with episodes of re-ruptures, suggesting delayed failure of asperities. The high-frequency rupture remains within an area of local high trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), suggesting the presence of subducting seamounts that promote high-frequency generation. Our results highlight the complexity of the interactions between large-scale aseismic slow-slip and dynamic ruptures of megathrust earthquakes.

Toward Broadband Source Modeling for the Himalayan Collision Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, H.; Koketsu, K.; Kobayashi, H.; Sharma, B.; Mishra, O. P.; Yokoi, T.; Hayashida, T.; Bhattarai, M.; Sapkota, S. N.

2017-12-01

The Himalayan collision zone is characterized by the significant tectonic setting. There are earthquakes with low-angle thrust faulting as well as continental outerrise earthquakes. Recently several historical earthquakes have been identified by active fault surveys [e.g., Sapkota et al., 2013]. We here investigate source scaling for the Himalayan collision zone as a fundamental factor to construct source models toward seismic hazard assessment. As for the source scaling for collision zones, Yen and Ma [2011] reported the subduction-zone source scaling in Taiwan, and pointed out the non-self-similar scaling due to the finite crustal thickness. On the other hand, current global analyses of stress drop do not show abnormal values for the continental collision zones [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2009]. Based on the compile profiling of finite thickness of the curst and dip angle variations, we discuss whether the bending exists for the Himalayan source scaling and implications on stress drop that will control strong ground motions. Due to quite low-angle dip faulting, recent earthquakes in the Himalayan collision zone showed the upper bound of the current source scaling of rupture area vs. seismic moment (< Mw 8.0), and does not show significant bending of the source scaling. Toward broadband source modeling for ground motion prediction, we perform empirical Green's function simulations for the 2009 Butan and 2015 Gorkha earthquake sequence to quantify both long- and short-period source spectral levels.

Sensitivities of Near-field Tsunami Forecasts to Megathrust Deformation Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tung, S.; Masterlark, T.

2018-02-01

This study reveals how modeling configurations of forward and inverse analyses of coseismic deformation data influence the estimations of seismic and tsunami sources. We illuminate how the predictions of near-field tsunami change when (1) a heterogeneous (HET) distribution of crustal material is introduced to the elastic dislocation model, and (2) the near-trench rupture is either encouraged or suppressed to invert spontaneous coseismic displacements. Hypothetical scenarios of megathrust earthquakes are studied with synthetic Global Positioning System displacements in Cascadia. Finite-element models are designed to mimic the subsurface heterogeneity across the curved subduction margin. The HET lithospheric domain modifies the seafloor displacement field and alters tsunami predictions from those of a homogeneous (HOM) crust. Uncertainties persist as the inverse analyses of geodetic data produce nonrealistic slip artifacts over the HOM domain, which propagates into the prediction errors of subsequent tsunami arrival and amplitudes. A stochastic analysis further shows that the uncertainties of seismic tomography models do not degrade the solution accuracy of HET over HOM. Whether the source ruptures near the trench also controls the details of the seafloor disturbance. Deeper subsurface slips induce more seafloor uplift near the coast and cause an earlier arrival of tsunami waves than surface-slipping events. We suggest using the solutions of zero-updip-slip and zero-updip-slip-gradient rupture boundary conditions as end-members to constrain the tsunami behavior for forecasting purposes. The findings are important for the near-field tsunami warning that primarily relies on the near-real-time geodetic or seismic data for source calibration before megawaves hit the nearest shore upon tsunamigenic events.

Modelling earthquake ruptures with dynamic off-fault damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okubo, Kurama; Bhat, Harsha S.; Klinger, Yann; Rougier, Esteban

2017-04-01

Earthquake rupture modelling has been developed for producing scenario earthquakes. This includes understanding the source mechanisms and estimating far-field ground motion with given a priori constraints like fault geometry, constitutive law of the medium and friction law operating on the fault. It is necessary to consider all of the above complexities of a fault systems to conduct realistic earthquake rupture modelling. In addition to the complexity of the fault geometry in nature, coseismic off-fault damage, which is observed by a variety of geological and seismological methods, plays a considerable role on the resultant ground motion and its spectrum compared to a model with simple planer fault surrounded by purely elastic media. Ideally all of these complexities should be considered in earthquake modelling. State of the art techniques developed so far, however, cannot treat all of them simultaneously due to a variety of computational restrictions. Therefore, we adopt the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), which can effectively deal with pre-existing complex fault geometry such as fault branches and kinks and can describe coseismic off-fault damage generated during the dynamic rupture. The advantage of FDEM is that it can handle a wide range of length scales, from metric to kilometric scale, corresponding to the off-fault damage and complex fault geometry respectively. We used the FDEM-based software tool called HOSSedu (Hybrid Optimization Software Suite - Educational Version) for the earthquake rupture modelling, which was developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. We firstly conducted the cross-validation of this new methodology against other conventional numerical schemes such as the finite difference method (FDM), the spectral element method (SEM) and the boundary integral equation method (BIEM), to evaluate the accuracy with various element sizes and artificial viscous damping values. We demonstrate the capability of the FDEM tool for modelling earthquake ruptures. We then modelled earthquake ruptures allowing for coseismic off-fault damage with appropriate fracture nucleation and growth criteria. We studied the effect of different conditions such as rupture speed (sub-Rayleigh or supershear), the orientation of the initial maximum principal stress with respect to the fault and the magnitude of the initial stress (to mimic depth). The comparison between the sub-Rayleigh and supershear case shows that the coseismic off-fault damage is enhanced in the supershear case when compared with the sub-Rayleigh case. The orientation of the maximum principal stress also has significant difference such that the dynamic off-fault cracking is more likely to occur on the extensional side of the fault for high principal stress orientation. It is found that the coseismic off-fault damage reduces the rupture speed due to the dissipation of the energy by dynamic off-fault cracking generated in the vicinity of the rupture front. In terms of the ground motion amplitude spectra it is shown that the high-frequency radiation is enhanced by the coseismic off-fault damage though it is quickly attenuated. This is caused by the intricate superposition of the radiation generated by the off-fault damage and the perturbation of the rupture speed on the main fault.

Dynamic fault rupture model of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan; Role of rupture velocity changes on extreme ground motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido Hernandez, N. E.; Dalguer Gudiel, L. A.; Aoi, S.

2009-12-01

The Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, a reverse earthquake occurred in the southern Iwate prefecture Japan (2008/6/14), produced the largest peak ground acceleration recorded to date (4g) (Aoi et al. 2008), at the West Ichinoseki (IWTH25), KiK-net strong motion station of NIED. This station which is equipped with surface and borehole accelerometers (GL-260), also recorded very high peak accelerations up to 1g at the borehole level, despite being located in a rock site. From comparison of spectrograms of the observed surface and borehole records at IWTH25, Pulido et. al (2008) identified two high frequency (HF) ground motion events located at 4.5s and 6.3s originating at the source, which likely derived in the extreme observed accelerations of 3.9g and 3.5g at IWTH25. In order to understand the generation mechanism of these HF events we performed a dynamic fault rupture model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake by using the Support Operator Rupture Dynamics (SORD) code, (Ely et al., 2009). SORD solves the elastodynamic equation using a generalized finite difference method that can utilize meshes of arbitrary structure and is capable of handling geometries appropriate to thrust earthquakes. Our spontaneous dynamic rupture model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake is governed by the simple slip weakening friction law. The dynamic parameters, stress drop, strength excess and critical slip weakening distance are estimated following the procedure described in Pulido and Dalguer (2009) [PD09]. These parameters develop earthquake rupture consistent with the final slip obtained by kinematic source inversion of near source strong ground motion recordings. The dislocation model of this earthquake is characterized by a patch of large slip located ~7 km south of the hypocenter (Suzuki et al. 2009). Our results for the calculation of stress drop follow a similar pattern. Using the rupture times obtained from the dynamic model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake we estimated the rupture velocity as well as rupture velocity changes distribution across the fault plane based on the procedure proposed by PD09. Our results show that rupture velocity has strong variations concentrated in small patches within large slip areas (asperities). Using this dynamic model we performed the strong motion simulation at the IWTH25 borehole. We obtained that this model is able to reproduce the two HF events observed in the strong motion data. Our preliminary results suggest that the extreme acceleration pulses were induced by two strong rupture velocity acceleration events at the rupture front. References Aoi, S., T. Kunugi, and H. Fujiwara, 2008, Science, 322, 727-730. Ely, G. P., S. M. Day, and J.-B. Minster (2009), Geophys. J. Int., 177(3), 1140-1150. Pulido, N., S. Aoi, and W. Suzuki (2008), AGU Fall meeting, S33C-02. Pulido, N., and L.A. Dalguer, (2009). Estimation of the high-frequency radiation of the 2000 Tottori (Japan) earthquake based on a dynamic model of fault rupture: Application to the strong ground motion simulation, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 99(4), 2305-2322. Suzuki, W., S. Aoi, and H. Sekiguchi, (2009), Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. (Accepted).

Rupture process of the 2010 Mw 7.8 Mentawai tsunami earthquake from joint inversion of near-field hr-GPS and teleseismic body wave recordings constrained by tsunami observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Han; Lay, Thorne; Rivera, Luis; Bai, Yefei; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Hill, Emma M.; Sieh, Kerry; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2014-07-01

The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (Mw 7.8) ruptured the shallow portion of the Sunda megathrust seaward of the Mentawai Islands, offshore of Sumatra, Indonesia, generating a strong tsunami that took 509 lives. The rupture zone was updip of those of the 12 September 2007 Mw 8.5 and 7.9 underthrusting earthquakes. High-rate (1 s sampling) GPS instruments of the Sumatra GPS Array network deployed on the Mentawai Islands and Sumatra mainland recorded time-varying and static ground displacements at epicentral distances from 49 to 322 km. Azimuthally distributed tsunami recordings from two deepwater sensors and two tide gauges that have local high-resolution bathymetric information provide additional constraints on the source process. Finite-fault rupture models, obtained by joint inversion of the high-rate (hr)-GPS time series and numerous teleseismic broadband P and S wave seismograms together with iterative forward modeling of the tsunami recordings, indicate rupture propagation ~50 km up dip and ~100 km northwest along strike from the hypocenter, with a rupture velocity of ~1.8 km/s. Subregions with large slip extend from 7 to 10 km depth ~80 km northwest from the hypocenter with a maximum slip of 8 m and from ~5 km depth to beneath thin horizontal sedimentary layers beyond the prism deformation front for ~100 km along strike, with a localized region having >15 m of slip. The seismic moment is 7.2 × 1020 N m. The rupture model indicates that local heterogeneities in the shallow megathrust can accumulate strain that allows some regions near the toe of accretionary prisms to fail in tsunami earthquakes.

Multi-Array Back-Projections of The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake With Physics-Based Aftershock Calibrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Zhang, A.; Yagi, Y.

2015-12-01

The 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal-Gorkha earthquake with casualties of over 9,000 people is the most devastating disaster to strike Nepal since the 1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake. Its rupture process is well imaged by the teleseismic MUSIC back-projections (BP). Here, we perform independent back-projections of high-frequency recordings (0.5-2 Hz) from the Australian seismic network (AU), the North America network (NA) and the European seismic network (EU), located in complementary orientations. Our results of all three arrays show unilateral linear rupture path to the east of the hypocenter. But the propagating directions and the inferred rupture speeds differ significantly among different arrays. To understand the spatial uncertainties of the BP analysis, we image four moderate-size (M5~6) aftershocks based on the timing correction derived from the alignment of the initial P-wave of the mainshock. We find that the apparent source locations inferred from BP are systematically biased along the source-array orientation, which can be explained by the uncertainty of the 3D velocity structure deviated from the 1D reference model (e.g. IASP91). We introduced a slowness error term in travel time as a first-order calibration that successfully mitigates the source location discrepancies of different arrays. The calibrated BP results of three arrays are mutually consistent and reveal a unilateral rupture propagating eastward at a speed of 2.7 km/s along the down-dip edge of the locked Himalaya thrust zone over ~ 150 km, in agreement with a narrow slip distribution inferred from finite source inversions.

Finite-Source Inversion for the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake using 3D Velocity Model Green's Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, A.; Dreger, D.; Larsen, S.

2008-12-01

We determine finite fault models of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake using 3D Green's functions. Because of the dense station coverage and detailed 3D velocity structure model in this region, this earthquake provides an excellent opportunity to examine how the 3D velocity structure affects the finite fault inverse solutions. Various studies (e.g. Michaels and Eberhart-Phillips, 1991; Thurber et al., 2006) indicate that there is a pronounced velocity contrast across the San Andreas Fault along the Parkfield segment. Also the fault zone at Parkfield is wide as evidenced by mapped surface faults and where surface slip and creep occurred in the 1966 and the 2004 Parkfield earthquakes. For high resolution images of the rupture process"Ait is necessary to include the accurate 3D velocity structure for the finite source inversion. Liu and Aurchuleta (2004) performed finite fault inversions using both 1D and 3D Green's functions for 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake using the same source paramerization and data but different Green's functions and found that the models were quite different. This indicates that the choice of the velocity model significantly affects the waveform modeling at near-fault stations. In this study, we used the P-wave velocity model developed by Thurber et al (2006) to construct the 3D Green's functions. P-wave speeds are converted to S-wave speeds and density using by the empirical relationships of Brocher (2005). Using a finite difference method, E3D (Larsen and Schultz, 1995), we computed the 3D Green's functions numerically by inserting body forces at each station. Using reciprocity, these Green's functions are recombined to represent the ground motion at each station due to the slip on the fault plane. First we modeled the waveforms of small earthquakes to validate the 3D velocity model and the reciprocity of the Green"fs function. In the numerical tests we found that the 3D velocity model predicted the individual phases well at frequencies lower than 0.25 Hz but that the velocity model is fast at stations located very close to the fault. In this near-fault zone the model also underpredicts the amplitudes. This implies the need to include an additional low velocity zone in the fault zone to fit the data. For the finite fault modeling we use the same stations as in our previous study (Kim and Dreger 2008), and compare the results to investigate the effect of 3D Green's functions on kinematic source inversions. References: Brocher, T. M., (2005), Empirical relations between elastic wavespeeds and density in the Earth's crust, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 95, No. 6, 2081-2092. Eberhart-Phillips, D., and A.J. Michael, (1993), Three-dimensional velocity structure and seismicity in the Parkfield region, central California, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 15,737-15,758. Kim A., D. S. Dreger (2008), Rupture process of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake from near-fault seismic waveform and geodetic records, J. Geophys. Res., 113, B07308. Thurber, C., H. Zhang, F. Waldhauser, J. Hardebeck, A. Michaels, and D. Eberhart-Phillips (2006), Three- dimensional compressional wavespeed model, earthquake relocations, and focal mechanisms for the Parkfield, California, region, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 96, S38-S49. Larsen, S., and C. A. Schultz (1995), ELAS3D: 2D/3D elastic finite-difference wave propagation code, Technical Report No. UCRL-MA-121792, 19pp. Liu, P., and R. J. Archuleta (2004), A new nonlinear finite fault inversion with three-dimensional Green's functions: Application to the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B02318.

Uncertainty Estimation in Tsunami Initial Condition From Rapid Bayesian Finite Fault Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, R. F.; Dettmer, J.; Cummins, P. R.; Urrutia, A.; Cienfuegos, R.

2017-12-01

It is well known that kinematic rupture models for a given earthquake can present discrepancies even when similar datasets are employed in the inversion process. While quantifying this variability can be critical when making early estimates of the earthquake and triggered tsunami impact, "most likely models" are normally used for this purpose. In this work, we quantify the uncertainty of the tsunami initial condition for the great Illapel earthquake (Mw = 8.3, 2015, Chile). We focus on utilizing data and inversion methods that are suitable to rapid source characterization yet provide meaningful and robust results. Rupture models from teleseismic body and surface waves as well as W-phase are derived and accompanied by Bayesian uncertainty estimates from linearized inversion under positivity constraints. We show that robust and consistent features about the rupture kinematics appear when working within this probabilistic framework. Moreover, by using static dislocation theory, we translate the probabilistic slip distributions into seafloor deformation which we interpret as a tsunami initial condition. After considering uncertainty, our probabilistic seafloor deformation models obtained from different data types appear consistent with each other providing meaningful results. We also show that selecting just a single "representative" solution from the ensemble of initial conditions for tsunami propagation may lead to overestimating information content in the data. Our results suggest that rapid, probabilistic rupture models can play a significant role during emergency response by providing robust information about the extent of the disaster.

Flexible kinematic earthquake rupture inversion of tele-seismic waveforms: Application to the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, K.; Yagi, Y.; Okuwaki, R.; Kasahara, A.

2017-12-01

The kinematic earthquake rupture models are useful to derive statistics and scaling properties of the large and great earthquakes. However, the kinematic rupture models for the same earthquake are often different from one another. Such sensitivity of the modeling prevents us to understand the statistics and scaling properties of the earthquakes. Yagi and Fukahata (2011) introduces the uncertainty of Green's function into the tele-seismic waveform inversion, and shows that the stable spatiotemporal distribution of slip-rate can be obtained by using an empirical Bayesian scheme. One of the unsolved problems in the inversion rises from the modeling error originated from an uncertainty of a fault-model setting. Green's function near the nodal plane of focal mechanism is known to be sensitive to the slight change of the assumed fault geometry, and thus the spatiotemporal distribution of slip-rate should be distorted by the modeling error originated from the uncertainty of the fault model. We propose a new method accounting for the complexity in the fault geometry by additionally solving the focal mechanism on each space knot. Since a solution of finite source inversion gets unstable with an increasing of flexibility of the model, we try to estimate a stable spatiotemporal distribution of focal mechanism in the framework of Yagi and Fukahata (2011). We applied the proposed method to the 52 tele-seismic P-waveforms of the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake. The inverted-potency distribution shows unilateral rupture propagation toward southwest of the epicenter, and the spatial variation of the focal mechanisms shares the same pattern as the fault-curvature along the tectonic fabric. On the other hand, the broad pattern of rupture process, including the direction of rupture propagation, cannot be reproduced by an inversion analysis under the assumption that the faulting occurred on a single flat plane. These results show that the modeling error caused by simplifying the fault model is non-negligible in the tele-seismic waveform inversion of the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake.

Three-dimensional simulations of ground motions in the San Bernardino Valley, California, for hypothetical earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.

1993-01-01

Three-dimensional finite difference simulations of elastic waves in the San Bernardino Valley were performed for two hypothetical earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: a point source with moment magnitude M5 and an extended rupture with M6.5. A method is presented for incorporating a source with arbitrary focal mechanism in the grid. Synthetics from the 3-D simulations are compared with those derived from 2-D (vertical cross section) and 1-D (flat-layered) models. The synthetic seismograms from the 3-D and 2-D simulations exhibit large surface waves produced by conversion of incident S waves at the edge of the basin. Seismograms from the flat-layered model do not contain these converted surface waves and underestimate the duration of shaking. Maps of maximum ground velocities occur in localized portions of the basin. The location of the largest velocities changes with the rupture propagation direction. Contours of maximum shaking are also dependent on asperity positions and radiation pattern. -from Author

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Investigation of rupture velocity, risetime, and high-frequency radiation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.; Mendoza, C.

1996-01-01

A hybrid global search algorithm is used to solve the nonlinear problem of calculating slip amplitude, rake, risetime, and rupture time on a finite fault. Thirty-five strong motion velocity records are inverted by this method over the frequency band from 0.1 to 1.0 Hz for the Northridge earthquake. Four regions of larger-amplitude slip are identified: one near the hypocenter at a depth of 17 km, a second west of the hypocenter at about the same depth, a third updip from the hypocenter at a depth of 10 km, and a fourth updip from the hypocenter and to the northwest. The results further show an initial fast rupture with a velocity of 2.8 to 3.0 km/s followed by a slow termination of the rupture with velocities of 2.0 to 2.5 km/s. The initial energetic rupture phase lasts for 3 s, extending out 10 km from the hypocenter. Slip near the hypocenter has a short risetime of 0.5 s, which increases to 1.5 s for the major slip areas removed from the hypocentral region. The energetic rupture phase is also shown to be the primary source of high-frequency radiation (1-15 Hz) by an inversion of acceleration envelopes. The same global search algorithm is used in the envelope inversion to calculate high-frequency radiation intensity on the fault and rupture time. The rupture timing from the low- and high-frequency inversions is similar, indicating that the high frequencies are produced primarily at the mainshock rupture front. Two major sources of high-frequency radiation are identified within the energetic rupture phase, one at the hypocenter and another deep source to the west of the hypocenter. The source at the hypocenter is associated with the initiation of rupture and the breaking of a high-stress-drop asperity and the second is associated with stopping of the rupture in a westerly direction.

The 2006 July 17 Java (Indonesia) tsunami from satellite imagery and numerical modelling: a single or complex source?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, H.; Burg, P.-E.; Binet, R.; Lavigne, F.; Allgeyer, S.; Schindelé, F.

2012-12-01

The Mw 7.8 2006 July 17 earthquake off the southern coast of Java, Indonesia, has been responsible for a very large tsunami causing more than 700 casualties. The tsunami has been observed on at least 200 km of coastline in the region of Pangandaran (West Java), with run-up heights from 5 to more than 20 m. Such a large tsunami, with respect to the source magnitude, has been attributed to the slow character of the seismic rupture, defining the event as a so-called tsunami earthquake, but it has also been suggested that the largest run-up heights are actually the result of a second local landslide source. Here we test whether a single slow earthquake source can explain the tsunami run-up, using a combination of new detailed data in the region of the largest run-ups and comparison with modelled run-ups for a range of plausible earthquake source models. Using high-resolution satellite imagery (SPOT 5 and Quickbird), the coastal impact of the tsunami is refined in the surroundings of the high-security Permisan prison on Nusa Kambangan island, where 20 m run-up had been recorded directly after the event. These data confirm the extreme inundation lengths close to the prison, and extend the area of maximum impact further along the Nusa Kambangan island (about 20 km of shoreline), where inundation lengths reach several hundreds of metres, suggesting run-up as high as 10-15 m. Tsunami modelling has been conducted in detail for the high run-up Permisan area (Nusa Kambangan) and the PLTU power plant about 25 km eastwards, where run-up reached only 4-6 m and a video recording of the tsunami arrival is available. For the Permisan prison a high-resolution DEM was built from stereoscopic satellite imagery. The regular basin of the PLTU plant was designed using photographs and direct observations. For the earthquake's mechanism, both static (infinite) and finite (kinematic) ruptures are investigated using two published source models. The models account rather well for the sea level variation at PLTU, showing a better agreement in arrival times with the finite rupture, and predict the Permisan area to be one of the regions where tsunami waves would have focussed. However, the earthquake models that match the data at PTLU do not predict that the wave heights at Permisan are an overall maximum, and do not predict there more than 10 m of the 21 observed. Hence, our results confirm that an additional localized tsunami source off Nusa Kambangan island, such as a submarine landslide, may have increased the tsunami impact for the Permisan site. This reinforces the importance for hazard assessment of further mapping and understanding local potential for submarine sliding, as a tsunami source added to usual earthquake sources.

Using a pseudo-dynamic source inversion approach to improve earthquake source imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Song, S. G.; Dalguer, L. A.; Clinton, J. F.

2014-12-01

Imaging a high-resolution spatio-temporal slip distribution of an earthquake rupture is a core research goal in seismology. In general we expect to obtain a higher quality source image by improving the observational input data (e.g. using more higher quality near-source stations). However, recent studies show that increasing the surface station density alone does not significantly improve source inversion results (Custodio et al. 2005; Zhang et al. 2014). We introduce correlation structures between the kinematic source parameters: slip, rupture velocity, and peak slip velocity (Song et al. 2009; Song and Dalguer 2013) in the non-linear source inversion. The correlation structures are physical constraints derived from rupture dynamics that effectively regularize the model space and may improve source imaging. We name this approach pseudo-dynamic source inversion. We investigate the effectiveness of this pseudo-dynamic source inversion method by inverting low frequency velocity waveforms from a synthetic dynamic rupture model of a buried vertical strike-slip event (Mw 6.5) in a homogeneous half space. In the inversion, we use a genetic algorithm in a Bayesian framework (Moneli et al. 2008), and a dynamically consistent regularized Yoffe function (Tinti, et al. 2005) was used for a single-window slip velocity function. We search for local rupture velocity directly in the inversion, and calculate the rupture time using a ray-tracing technique. We implement both auto- and cross-correlation of slip, rupture velocity, and peak slip velocity in the prior distribution. Our results suggest that kinematic source model estimates capture the major features of the target dynamic model. The estimated rupture velocity closely matches the target distribution from the dynamic rupture model, and the derived rupture time is smoother than the one we searched directly. By implementing both auto- and cross-correlation of kinematic source parameters, in comparison to traditional smoothing constraints, we are in effect regularizing the model space in a more physics-based manner without loosing resolution of the source image. Further investigation is needed to tune the related parameters of pseudo-dynamic source inversion and relative weighting between the prior and the likelihood function in the Bayesian inversion.

Modeling the effects of source and path heterogeneity on ground motions of great earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using 3D simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delorey, Andrew; Frankel, Arthur; Liu, Pengcheng; Stephenson, William J.

2014-01-01

We ran finite‐difference earthquake simulations for great subduction zone earthquakes in Cascadia to model the effects of source and path heterogeneity for the purpose of improving strong‐motion predictions. We developed a rupture model for large subduction zone earthquakes based on a k−2 slip spectrum and scale‐dependent rise times by representing the slip distribution as the sum of normal modes of a vibrating membrane.Finite source and path effects were important in determining the distribution of strong motions through the locations of the hypocenter, subevents, and crustal structures like sedimentary basins. Some regions in Cascadia appear to be at greater risk than others during an event due to the geometry of the Cascadia fault zone relative to the coast and populated regions. The southern Oregon coast appears to have increased risk because it is closer to the locked zone of the Cascadia fault than other coastal areas and is also in the path of directivity amplification from any rupture propagating north to south in that part of the subduction zone, and the basins in the Puget Sound area are efficiently amplified by both north and south propagating ruptures off the coast of western Washington. We find that the median spectral accelerations at 5 s period from the simulations are similar to that of the Zhao et al. (2006) ground‐motion prediction equation, although our simulations predict higher amplitudes near the region of greatest slip and in the sedimentary basins, such as the Seattle basin.

Source Rupture Process of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, Earthquake Inverted from Strong-Motion Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenbo; Zheng, Ao

2017-04-01

On 15 April, 2016 the great earthquake with magnitude Mw7.1 occurred in Kumamoto prefecture, Japan. The focal mechanism solution released by F-net located the hypocenter at 130.7630°E, 32.7545°N, at a depth of 12.45 km, and the strike, dip, and the rake angle of the fault were N226°E, 84˚ and -142° respectively. The epicenter distribution and focal mechanisms of aftershocks implied the mechanism of the mainshock might have changed in the source rupture process, thus a single focal mechanism was not enough to explain the observed data adequately. In this study, based on the inversion result of GNSS and InSAR surface deformation with active structures for reference, we construct a finite fault model with focal mechanism changes, and derive the source rupture process by multi-time-window linear waveform inversion method using the strong-motion data (0.05 1.0Hz) obtained by K-NET and KiK-net of Japan. Our result shows that the Kumamoto earthquake is a right-lateral strike slipping rupture event along the Futagawa-Hinagu fault zone, and the seismogenic fault is divided into a northern segment and a southern one. The strike and the dip of the northern segment are N235°E, 60˚ respectively. And for the southern one, they are N205°E, 72˚ respectively. The depth range of the fault model is consistent with the depth distribution of aftershocks, and the slip on the fault plane mainly concentrate on the northern segment, in which the maximum slip is about 7.9 meter. The rupture process of the whole fault continues for approximately 18-sec, and the total seismic moment released is 5.47×1019N·m (Mw 7.1). In addition, the essential feature of the distribution of PGV and PGA synthesized by the inversion result is similar to that of observed PGA and seismic intensity.

Finite-fault inversion of the Mw 5.9 2012 Emilia-Romagna earthquake (Northern Italy) using aftershocks as near-field Green's function approximations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Causse, Mathieu; Cultrera, Giovanna; Herrero, André; Courboulex, Françoise; Schiappapietra, Erika; Moreau, Ludovic

2017-04-01

On May 29, 2012 occurred a Mw 5.9 earthquake in the Emilia-Romagna region (Po Plain) on a thrust fault system. This shock, as well as hundreds of aftershocks, were recorded by 10 strong motion stations located less than 10 km away from the rupture plane, with 4 stations located within the surface rupture projection. The Po Plain is a very large EW trending syntectonic alluvial basin, delimited by the Alps and Apennines chains to the North and South. The Plio-Quaternary sedimentary sequence filling the Po Plain is characterized by an uneven thickness, ranging from several thousands of meters to a few tens of meters. This particular context results especially in a resonance basin below 1 Hz and strong surface waves, which makes it particularly difficult to model wave propagation and hence to obtain robust images of the rupture propagation. This study proposes to take advantage of the large set of recorded aftershocks, considered as point sources, to model wave propagation. Due to the heterogeneous distribution of the aftershocks on the fault plane, an interpolation technique is proposed to compute an approximation of the Green's function between each fault point and each strong motion station in the frequency range [0.2-1Hz]. We then use a Bayesian inversion technique (Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm) to obtain images of the rupture propagation from the strong motion data. We propose to retrieve the slip distribution by inverting the final slip value at some control points, which are allowed to move on the fault plane, and by interpolating the slip value between these points. We show that the use of 5 control points to describe the slip, coupled with the hypothesis of spatially constant rupture velocity and rise-time (that is 18 free source parameters), results in a good level of fit with the data. This indicates that despite their complexity, the strong motion data can be properly modeled up to 1 Hz using a relatively simple rupture. The inversion results also reveal that the rupture propagated slowly, at a speed of about 45% of the shear wave velocity.

Dynamic rupture models of earthquakes on the Bartlett Springs Fault, Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lozos, Julian C.; Harris, Ruth A.; Murray, Jessica R.; Lienkaemper, James J.

2015-01-01

The Bartlett Springs Fault (BSF), the easternmost branch of the northern San Andreas Fault system, creeps along much of its length. Geodetic data for the BSF are sparse, and surface creep rates are generally poorly constrained. The two existing geodetic slip rate inversions resolve at least one locked patch within the creeping zones. We use the 3-D finite element code FaultMod to conduct dynamic rupture models based on both geodetic inversions, in order to determine the ability of rupture to propagate into the creeping regions, as well as to assess possible magnitudes for BSF ruptures. For both sets of models, we find that the distribution of aseismic creep limits the extent of coseismic rupture, due to the contrast in frictional properties between the locked and creeping regions.

Rupture history of the 1997 Cariaco, Venezuela, earthquake from teleseismic P waves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mendoza, C.

2000-01-01

A two-step finite-fault waveform inversion scheme is applied to the broadband teleseismic P waves recorded for the strike-slip, Cariaco, Venezuela, earthquake of 9 July 1997 to recover the distribution of mainshock slip. The earthquake is first analyzed using a long narrow fault with a maximum rise time of 20 sec. This line-source analysis indicates that slip propagated to the west with a constant rupture velocity and a relatively short rise time. The results are then used to constrain a second inversion of the P waveforms using a 60-km by 20-km two-dimensional fault. The rupture shows a zone of large slip (1.3-m peak) near the hypocenter and a second, broader source extending updip and to the west at depths shallower than 5 km. The second source has a peak slip of 2.1 meters and accounts for most of the moment of 1.1 × 1026 dyne-cm (6.6 Mww) estimated from the P waves. The inferred rupture pattern is consistent with macroseismic effects observed in the epicentral area.

Deterministic earthquake scenario for the Basel area: Simulating strong motions and site effects for Basel, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

OpršAl, Ivo; FäH, Donat; Mai, P. Martin; Giardini, Domenico

2005-04-01

The Basel earthquake of 18 October 1356 is considered one of the most serious earthquakes in Europe in recent centuries (I0 = IX, M ≈ 6.5-6.9). In this paper we present ground motion simulations for earthquake scenarios for the city of Basel and its vicinity. The numerical modeling combines the finite extent pseudodynamic and kinematic source models with complex local structure in a two-step hybrid three-dimensional (3-D) finite difference (FD) method. The synthetic seismograms are accurate in the frequency band 0-2.2 Hz. The 3-D FD is a linear explicit displacement formulation using an irregular rectangular grid including topography. The finite extent rupture model is adjacent to the free surface because the fault has been recognized through trenching on the Reinach fault. We test two source models reminiscent of past earthquakes (the 1999 Athens and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake) to represent Mw ≈ 5.9 and Mw ≈ 6.5 events that occur approximately to the south of Basel. To compare the effect of the same wave field arriving at the site from other directions, we considered the same sources placed east and west of the city. The local structural model is determined from the area's recently established P and S wave velocity structure and includes topography. The selected earthquake scenarios show strong ground motion amplification with respect to a bedrock site, which is in contrast to previous 2-D simulations for the same area. In particular, we found that the edge effects from the 3-D structural model depend strongly on the position of the earthquake source within the modeling domain.

Dynamic mortar finite element method for modeling of shear rupture on frictional rough surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tal, Yuval; Hager, Bradford H.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a mortar-based finite element formulation for modeling the dynamics of shear rupture on rough interfaces governed by slip-weakening and rate and state (RS) friction laws, focusing on the dynamics of earthquakes. The method utilizes the dual Lagrange multipliers and the primal-dual active set strategy concepts, together with a consistent discretization and linearization of the contact forces and constraints, and the friction laws to obtain a semi-smooth Newton method. The discretization of the RS friction law involves a procedure to condense out the state variables, thus eliminating the addition of another set of unknowns into the system. Several numerical examples of shear rupture on frictional rough interfaces demonstrate the efficiency of the method and examine the effects of the different time discretization schemes on the convergence, energy conservation, and the time evolution of shear traction and slip rate.

CyberShake-derived ground-motion prediction models for the Los Angeles region with application to earthquake early warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bose, Maren; Graves, Robert; Gill, David; Callaghan, Scott; Maechling, Phillip J.

2014-01-01

Real-time applications such as earthquake early warning (EEW) typically use empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) along with event magnitude and source-to-site distances to estimate expected shaking levels. In this simplified approach, effects due to finite-fault geometry, directivity and site and basin response are often generalized, which may lead to a significant under- or overestimation of shaking from large earthquakes (M > 6.5) in some locations. For enhanced site-specific ground-motion predictions considering 3-D wave-propagation effects, we develop support vector regression (SVR) models from the SCEC CyberShake low-frequency (<0.5 Hz) and broad-band (0–10 Hz) data sets. CyberShake encompasses 3-D wave-propagation simulations of >415 000 finite-fault rupture scenarios (6.5 ≤ M ≤ 8.5) for southern California defined in UCERF 2.0. We use CyberShake to demonstrate the application of synthetic waveform data to EEW as a ‘proof of concept’, being aware that these simulations are not yet fully validated and might not appropriately sample the range of rupture uncertainty. Our regression models predict the maximum and the temporal evolution of instrumental intensity (MMI) at 71 selected test sites using only the hypocentre, magnitude and rupture ratio, which characterizes uni- and bilateral rupture propagation. Our regression approach is completely data-driven (where here the CyberShake simulations are considered data) and does not enforce pre-defined functional forms or dependencies among input parameters. The models were established from a subset (∼20 per cent) of CyberShake simulations, but can explain MMI values of all >400 k rupture scenarios with a standard deviation of about 0.4 intensity units. We apply our models to determine threshold magnitudes (and warning times) for various active faults in southern California that earthquakes need to exceed to cause at least ‘moderate’, ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ shaking in the Los Angeles (LA) basin. These thresholds are used to construct a simple and robust EEW algorithm: to declare a warning, the algorithm only needs to locate the earthquake and to verify that the corresponding magnitude threshold is exceeded. The models predict that a relatively moderate M6.5–7 earthquake along the Palos Verdes, Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon, Elsinore or San Jacinto faults with a rupture propagating towards LA could cause ‘very strong’ to ‘severe’ shaking in the LA basin; however, warning times for these events could exceed 30 s.

Pseudo-dynamic source characterization accounting for rough-fault effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galis, Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Mai, P. Martin

2016-04-01

Broadband ground-motion simulations, ideally for frequencies up to ~10Hz or higher, are important for earthquake engineering; for example, seismic hazard analysis for critical facilities. An issue with such simulations is realistic generation of radiated wave-field in the desired frequency range. Numerical simulations of dynamic ruptures propagating on rough faults suggest that fault roughness is necessary for realistic high-frequency radiation. However, simulations of dynamic ruptures are too expensive for routine applications. Therefore, simplified synthetic kinematic models are often used. They are usually based on rigorous statistical analysis of rupture models inferred by inversions of seismic and/or geodetic data. However, due to limited resolution of the inversions, these models are valid only for low-frequency range. In addition to the slip, parameters such as rupture-onset time, rise time and source time functions are needed for complete spatiotemporal characterization of the earthquake rupture. But these parameters are poorly resolved in the source inversions. To obtain a physically consistent quantification of these parameters, we simulate and analyze spontaneous dynamic ruptures on rough faults. First, by analyzing the impact of fault roughness on the rupture and seismic radiation, we develop equivalent planar-fault kinematic analogues of the dynamic ruptures. Next, we investigate the spatial interdependencies between the source parameters to allow consistent modeling that emulates the observed behavior of dynamic ruptures capturing the rough-fault effects. Based on these analyses, we formulate a framework for pseudo-dynamic source model, physically consistent with the dynamic ruptures on rough faults.

A New Simplified Source Model to Explain Strong Ground Motions from a Mega-Thrust Earthquake - Application to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nozu, A.

2013-12-01

A new simplified source model is proposed to explain strong ground motions from a mega-thrust earthquake. The proposed model is simpler, and involves less model parameters, than the conventional characterized source model, which itself is a simplified expression of actual earthquake source. In the proposed model, the spacio-temporal distribution of slip within a subevent is not modeled. Instead, the source spectrum associated with the rupture of a subevent is modeled and it is assumed to follow the omega-square model. By multiplying the source spectrum with the path effect and the site amplification factor, the Fourier amplitude at a target site can be obtained. Then, combining it with Fourier phase characteristics of a smaller event, the time history of strong ground motions from the subevent can be calculated. Finally, by summing up contributions from the subevents, strong ground motions from the entire rupture can be obtained. The source model consists of six parameters for each subevent, namely, longitude, latitude, depth, rupture time, seismic moment and corner frequency of the subevent. Finite size of the subevent can be taken into account in the model, because the corner frequency of the subevent is included in the model, which is inversely proportional to the length of the subevent. Thus, the proposed model is referred to as the 'pseudo point-source model'. To examine the applicability of the model, a pseudo point-source model was developed for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The model comprises nine subevents, located off Miyagi Prefecture through Ibaraki Prefecture. The velocity waveforms (0.2-1 Hz), the velocity envelopes (0.2-10 Hz) and the Fourier spectra (0.2-10 Hz) at 15 sites calculated with the pseudo point-source model agree well with the observed ones, indicating the applicability of the model. Then the results were compared with the results of a super-asperity (SPGA) model of the same earthquake (Nozu, 2012, AGU), which can be considered as an example of characterized source models. Although the pseudo point-source model involves much less model parameters than the super-asperity model, the errors associated with the former model were comparable to those for the latter model for velocity waveforms and envelopes. Furthermore, the errors associated with the former model were much smaller than those for the latter model for Fourier spectra. These evidences indicate the usefulness of the pseudo point-source model. Comparison of the observed (black) and synthetic (red) Fourier spectra. The spectra are the composition of two horizontal components and smoothed with a Parzen window with a band width of 0.05 Hz.

Real-time inversions for finite fault slip models and rupture geometry based on high-rate GPS data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minson, Sarah E.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Gomberg, Joan S.

2015-01-01

We present an inversion strategy capable of using real-time high-rate GPS data to simultaneously solve for a distributed slip model and fault geometry in real time as a rupture unfolds. We employ Bayesian inference to find the optimal fault geometry and the distribution of possible slip models for that geometry using a simple analytical solution. By adopting an analytical Bayesian approach, we can solve this complex inversion problem (including calculating the uncertainties on our results) in real time. Furthermore, since the joint inversion for distributed slip and fault geometry can be computed in real time, the time required to obtain a source model of the earthquake does not depend on the computational cost. Instead, the time required is controlled by the duration of the rupture and the time required for information to propagate from the source to the receivers. We apply our modeling approach, called Bayesian Evidence-based Fault Orientation and Real-time Earthquake Slip, to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, and a simulated Hayward fault earthquake. In all three cases, the inversion recovers the magnitude, spatial distribution of slip, and fault geometry in real time. Since our inversion relies on static offsets estimated from real-time high-rate GPS data, we also present performance tests of various approaches to estimating quasi-static offsets in real time. We find that the raw high-rate time series are the best data to use for determining the moment magnitude of the event, but slightly smoothing the raw time series helps stabilize the inversion for fault geometry.

Joint inversion of GNSS and teleseismic data for the rupture process of the 2017 M w6.5 Jiuzhaigou, China, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qi; Tan, Kai; Wang, Dong Zhen; Zhao, Bin; Zhang, Rui; Li, Yu; Qi, Yu Jie

2018-02-01

The spatio-temporal slip distribution of the earthquake that occurred on 8 August 2017 in Jiuzhaigou, China, was estimated from the teleseismic body wave and near-field Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data (coseismic displacements and high-rate GPS data) based on a finite fault model. Compared with the inversion results from the teleseismic body waves, the near-field GNSS data can better restrain the rupture area, the maximum slip, the source time function, and the surface rupture. The results show that the maximum slip of the earthquake approaches 1.4 m, the scalar seismic moment is 8.0 × 1018 N·m (M w ≈ 6.5), and the centroid depth is 15 km. The slip is mainly driven by the left-lateral strike-slip and it is initially inferred that the seismogenic fault occurs in the south branch of the Tazang fault or an undetectable fault, a NW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault, and belongs to one of the tail structures at the easternmost end of the eastern Kunlun fault zone. The earthquake rupture is mainly concentrated at depths of 5-15 km, which results in the complete rupture of the seismic gap left by the previous four earthquakes with magnitudes > 6.0 in 1973 and 1976. Therefore, the possibility of a strong aftershock on the Huya fault is low. The source duration is 30 s and there are two major ruptures. The main rupture occurs in the first 10 s, 4 s after the earthquake; the second rupture peak arrives in 17 s. In addition, the Coulomb stress study shows that the epicenter of the earthquake is located in the area where the static Coulomb stress change increased because of the 12 May 2017 M w7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. Therefore, the Wenchuan earthquake promoted the occurrence of the 8 August 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake.

Joint inversion of GNSS and teleseismic data for the rupture process of the 2017 M w6.5 Jiuzhaigou, China, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qi; Tan, Kai; Wang, Dong Zhen; Zhao, Bin; Zhang, Rui; Li, Yu; Qi, Yu Jie

2018-05-01

The spatio-temporal slip distribution of the earthquake that occurred on 8 August 2017 in Jiuzhaigou, China, was estimated from the teleseismic body wave and near-field Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data (coseismic displacements and high-rate GPS data) based on a finite fault model. Compared with the inversion results from the teleseismic body waves, the near-field GNSS data can better restrain the rupture area, the maximum slip, the source time function, and the surface rupture. The results show that the maximum slip of the earthquake approaches 1.4 m, the scalar seismic moment is 8.0 × 1018 N·m ( M w ≈ 6.5), and the centroid depth is 15 km. The slip is mainly driven by the left-lateral strike-slip and it is initially inferred that the seismogenic fault occurs in the south branch of the Tazang fault or an undetectable fault, a NW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault, and belongs to one of the tail structures at the easternmost end of the eastern Kunlun fault zone. The earthquake rupture is mainly concentrated at depths of 5-15 km, which results in the complete rupture of the seismic gap left by the previous four earthquakes with magnitudes > 6.0 in 1973 and 1976. Therefore, the possibility of a strong aftershock on the Huya fault is low. The source duration is 30 s and there are two major ruptures. The main rupture occurs in the first 10 s, 4 s after the earthquake; the second rupture peak arrives in 17 s. In addition, the Coulomb stress study shows that the epicenter of the earthquake is located in the area where the static Coulomb stress change increased because of the 12 May 2017 M w7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. Therefore, the Wenchuan earthquake promoted the occurrence of the 8 August 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake.

Assessment of teleseismically-determined source parameters for the April 25, 2015 MW 7.9 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake and the May 12, 2015 MW 7.2 aftershock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lay, Thorne; Ye, Lingling; Koper, Keith D.; Kanamori, Hiroo

2017-09-01

On April 25, 2015 a major (MW 7.9) thrust earthquake ruptured the deeper portion of the seismogenic plate boundary beneath Nepal along which India is underthrusting Eurasia. An MW 7.2 aftershock on May 12, 2015 extended the eastern, down-dip edge of the rupture. These destructive events caused about 9000 fatalities and 23,000 injuries. The overall rupture zone is about 170 km long and 40-80 km wide. This region of the plate boundary previously experienced a large earthquake in 1833, and in 1934 a larger MS 8.0 event located to the east ruptured all the way to the surface. The Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) on which slip occurred in 2015 has a very low dip angle of 6°, and the depth of the mainshock slip distribution is very shallow, extending from 7 to 18 km. The shallow dip and depth present challenges for resolving faulting characteristics using teleseismic data. We analyze global teleseismic signals for the mainshock and aftershock to estimate source parameters, evaluating the stability of various procedures used for remotely characterizing kinematics of such shallow faulting. Back-projection and finite-fault slip inversion are used to assess the spatio-temporal rupture history and evidence for frequency-dependent radiation along dip. Slip zone width constraints from near-field geodetic observations are imposed on the preferred models to overcome some limitations of purely teleseismic methods. Radiated energy, stress drop and moment rate functions are determined for both events.

Finite element analysis of blunt foreign body impact on the cornea after PRK and LASIK.

PubMed

Mousavi, Seyed Jamaleddin; Nassiri, Nariman; Masoumi, Nafiseh; Nassiri, Nader; Majdi-N, Mercede; Farzaneh, Solmaz; Djalilian, Ali R; Peyman, Gholam A

2012-01-01

To investigate the effect of blunt foreign body impact on a human cornea after photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and LASIK using a simulation model. Computational simulations were performed using a finite element analysis program (LS-Dyna, Livermore Software Technology Corp). The blunt foreign body was set to impact at the center of the corneal surface models (after PRK and LASIK) with thicknesses of 500, 450, 400, 350, and 300 μm. Corneal rupture was assumed to occur at a peak stress of 9.45 MPa and at a strain of 18%. The foreign body projectile was blunt in shape, made from aluminum, contained plastic-kinematic properties, and had a density of 2700 kg/m(3). The projectile was launched at the center of the cornea with velocities ranging from 20 to 60 m/s. The threshold of impact velocities creating rupture in corneal thicknesses of 500, 450, 400, 350, and 300 μm were 33, 32.8, 30.7, 27.9, and 22.8 m/s, respectively, in the PRK model. In the LASIK model, the thresholds creating rupture in the stromal bed of the corneas with thicknesses of 500, 450, 400, 350, and 300 μm were 40, 38.1, 35.6, 31.5, and 26.7 m/s, respectively. The 110-μm corneal flap in the LASIK model ruptured at all velocities. Ruptures occurred at lower velocities in the PRK cornea model than in the corneal stromal bed of the LASIK model following blunt foreign body impact. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

Source complexity of the 1987 Whittier Narrows, California, earthquake from the inversion of strong motion records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Iida, M.

1990-01-01

Strong motion records for the Whittier Narrows earthquake are inverted to obtain the history of slip. Both constant rupture velocity models and variable rupture velocity models are considered. The results show a complex rupture process within a relatively small source volume, with at least four separate concentrations of slip. Two sources are associated with the hypocenter, the larger having a slip of 55-90 cm, depending on the rupture model. These sources have a radius of approximately 2-3 km and are ringed by a region of reduced slip. The aftershocks fall within this low slip annulus. Other sources with slips from 40 to 70 cm each ring the central source region and the aftershock pattern. All the sources are predominantly thrust, although some minor right-lateral strike-slip motion is seen. The overall dimensions of the Whittier earthquake from the strong motion inversions is 10 km long (along the strike) and 6 km wide (down the dip). The preferred dip is 30?? and the preferred average rupture velocity is 2.5 km/s. Moment estimates range from 7.4 to 10.0 ?? 1024 dyn cm, depending on the rupture model. -Authors

Slip reactivation model for the 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake: Dynamic rupture, sea floor displacements and tsunami simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvez, P.; Dalguer, L. A.; Rahnema, K.; Bader, M.

2014-12-01

The 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake has been recorded with a vast GPS and seismic network given unprecedented chance to seismologists to unveil complex rupture processes in a mega-thrust event. In fact more than one thousand near field strong-motion stations across Japan (K-Net and Kik-Net) revealed complex ground motion patterns attributed to the source effects, allowing to capture detailed information of the rupture process. The seismic stations surrounding the Miyagi regions (MYGH013) show two clear distinct waveforms separated by 40 seconds. This observation is consistent with the kinematic source model obtained from the inversion of strong motion data performed by Lee's et al (2011). In this model two rupture fronts separated by 40 seconds emanate close to the hypocenter and propagate towards the trench. This feature is clearly observed by stacking the slip-rate snapshots on fault points aligned in the EW direction passing through the hypocenter (Gabriel et al, 2012), suggesting slip reactivation during the main event. A repeating slip on large earthquakes may occur due to frictional melting and thermal fluid pressurization effects. Kanamori & Heaton (2002) argued that during faulting of large earthquakes the temperature rises high enough creating melting and further reduction of friction coefficient. We created a 3D dynamic rupture model to reproduce this slip reactivation pattern using SPECFEM3D (Galvez et al, 2014) based on a slip-weakening friction with sudden two sequential stress drops . Our model starts like a M7-8 earthquake breaking dimly the trench, then after 40 seconds a second rupture emerges close to the trench producing additional slip capable to fully break the trench and transforming the earthquake into a megathrust event. The resulting sea floor displacements are in agreement with 1Hz GPS displacements (GEONET). The seismograms agree roughly with seismic records along the coast of Japan.The simulated sea floor displacement reaches 8-10 meters of up-lift close to the trench, which may be the cause of such a devastating tsunami followed by the Tohoku earthquake. To investigate the impact of such a huge up-lift, we ran tsunami simulations with the slip reactivation model using sam(oa)2 (O. Meister et al., 2012), a state-of-the-art Finite-Volume framework to simulate the resulting tsunami waves.

Large seismic source imaging from old analogue seismograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Bento; Buforn, Elisa; Borges, José; Bezzeghoud, Mourad

2017-04-01

In this work we present a procedure to recover the ground motions by a proper digital structure, from old seismograms in analogue physical support (paper or microfilm) to study the source rupture process, by application of modern finite source inversion tools. Despite the quality that the analog data and the digitizing technologies available may have, recover the ground motions with the accurate metrics from old seismograms, is often an intricate procedure. Frequently the general parameters of the analogue instruments response that allow recover the shape of the ground motions (free periods and damping) are known, but the magnification that allow recover the metric of these motions is dubious. It is in these situations that the procedure applies. The procedure is based on assign of the moment magnitude value to the integral of the apparent Source Time Function (STF), estimated by deconvolution of a synthetic elementary seismogram from the related observed seismogram, corrected with an instrument response affected by improper magnification. Two delicate issues in the process are 1) the calculus of the synthetic elementary seismograms that must consider later phases if applied to large earthquakes (the portions of signal should be 3 or 4 times larger than the rupture time) and 2) the deconvolution to calculate the apparent STF. In present version of the procedure was used the Direct Solution Method to compute the elementary seismograms and the deconvolution was processed in time domain by an iterative algorithm that allow constrains the STF to stay positive and time limited. The method was examined using synthetic data to test the accuracy and robustness. Finally, a set of 17 real old analog seismograms from the Santa Maria (Azores) 1939 earthquake (Mw=7.1) was used in order to recover the waveforms in the required digital structure, from which by inversion allows compute the finite source rupture model (slip distribution). Acknowledgements: This work is co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund under COMPETE 2020 (Operational Program for Competitiveness and Internationalization) through the ICT project (UID / GEO / 04683/2013) under the reference POCI-01-0145 -FEDER-007690.

Coseismic source model of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung earthquake, Taiwan, determined from GPS measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ching, K.-E.; Rau, R.-J.; Zeng, Y.

2007-01-01

A coseismic source model of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung, Taiwan, earthquake was well determined with 213 GPS stations, providing a unique opportunity to study the characteristics of coseismic displacements of a high-angle buried reverse fault. Horizontal coseismic displacements show fault-normal shortening across the fault trace. Displacements on the hanging wall reveal fault-parallel and fault-normal lengthening. The largest horizontal and vertical GPS displacements reached 153 and 302 mm, respectively, in the middle part of the network. Fault geometry and slip distribution were determined by inverting GPS data using a three-dimensional (3-D) layered-elastic dislocation model. The slip is mainly concentrated within a 44 ?? 14 km slip patch centered at 15 km depth with peak amplitude of 126.6 cm. Results from 3-D forward-elastic model tests indicate that the dome-shaped folding on the hanging wall is reproduced with fault dips greater than 40??. Compared with the rupture area and average slip from slow slip earthquakes and a compilation of finite source models of 18 earthquakes, the Chengkung earthquake generated a larger rupture area and a lower stress drop, suggesting lower than average friction. Hence the Chengkung earthquake seems to be a transitional example between regular and slow slip earthquakes. The coseismic source model of this event indicates that the Chihshang fault is divided into a creeping segment in the north and the locked segment in the south. An average recurrence interval of 50 years for a magnitude 6.8 earthquake was estimated for the southern fault segment. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Stress drop inferred from dynamic rupture simulations consistent with Moment-Rupture area empirical scaling models: Effects of week shallow zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalguer, L. A.; Miyake, H.; Irikura, K.; Wu, H., Sr.

2016-12-01

Empirical scaling models of seismic moment and rupture area provide constraints to parameterize source parameters, such as stress drop, for numerical simulations of ground motion. There are several scaling models published in the literature. The effect of the finite width seismogenic zone and the free-surface have been attributed to cause the breaking of the well know self-similar scaling (e.g. Dalguer et al, 2008) given origin to the so called L and W models for large faults. These models imply the existence of three-stage scaling relationship between seismic moment and rupture area (e.g. Irikura and Miyake, 2011). In this paper we extend the work done by Dalguer et al 2008, in which these authors calibrated fault models that match the observations showing that the average stress drop is independent of earthquake size for buried earthquakes, but scale dependent for surface-rupturing earthquakes. Here we have developed additional sets of dynamic rupture models for vertical strike slip faults to evaluate the effect of the weak shallow layer (WSL) zone for the calibration of stress drop. Rupture in the WSL zone is expected to operate with enhanced energy absorption mechanism. The set of dynamic models consists of fault models with width 20km and fault length L=20km, 40km, 60km, 80km, 100km, 120km, 200km, 300km and 400km and average stress drop values of 2.0MPa, 2.5MPa, 3.0MPa, 3.5MPa, 5.0MPa and 7.5MPa. For models that break the free-surface, the WSL zone is modeled assuming a 2km width with stress drop 0.0MPa or -2.0 MPa. Our results show that depending on the characterization of the WSL zone, the average stress drop at the seismogenic zone that fit the empirical models changes. If WSL zone is not considered, that is, stress drop at SL zone is the same as the seismogenic zone, average stress drop is about 20% smaller than models with WSL zone. By introducing more energy absorption at the SL zone, that could be the case of large mature faults, the average stress drop in the seismogenic zone increases. Suggesting that large earthquakes need higher stress drop to break the fault than buried and moderate earthquakes. Therefore, the value of the average stress drop for large events that break the free-source depend on the definition of the WSL. Suggesting that the WSL plays an important role on the prediction of final slip and fault displacement.

Using finite-difference waveform modeling to better understand rupture kinematics and path effects in ground motion modeling: an induced seismicity case study at the Groningen Gas field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zurek, B.; Burnett, W. A.; deMartin, B.

2017-12-01

Ground motion models (GMMs) have historically been used as input in the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and as an engineering tool to assess risk in building design. Generally these equations are developed from empirical analysis of observations that come from fairly complete catalogs of seismic events. One of the challenges when doing a PSHA analysis in a region where earthquakes are anthropogenically induced is that the catalog of observations is not complete enough to come up with a set of equations to cover all expected outcomes. For example, PSHA analysis at the Groningen gas field, an area of known induced seismicity, requires estimates of ground motions from tremors up to a maximum magnitude of 6.5 ML. Of the roughly 1300 recordable earthquakes the maximum observed magnitude to date has been 3.6ML. This paper is part of a broader study where we use a deterministic finite-difference wave-form modeling tool to compliment the traditional development of GMMs. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of the GMM's to uncertainty in the rupture process and how this scales to larger magnitude events that have not been observed. A kinematic fault rupture model is introduced to our waveform simulations to test the sensitivity of the GMMs to variability in the fault rupture process that is physically consistent with observations. These tests will aid in constraining the degree of variability in modeled ground motions due to a realistic range of fault parameters and properties. From this study it is our conclusion that in order to properly capture the uncertainty of the GMMs with magnitude up-scaling one needs to address the impact of uncertainty in the near field (<10km) imposed by the lack of constraint on the finite rupture model. By quantifying the uncertainty back to physical principles it is our belief that it can be better constrained and thus reduce exposure to risk. Further, by investigating and constraining the range of fault rupture scenarios and earthquake magnitudes on ground motion models, hazard and risk analysis in regions with incomplete earthquake catalogs, such as the Groningen gas field, can be better understood.

Physics-Based Hazard Assessment for Critical Structures Near Large Earthquake Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchings, L.; Mert, A.; Fahjan, Y.; Novikova, T.; Golara, A.; Miah, M.; Fergany, E.; Foxall, W.

2017-09-01

We argue that for critical structures near large earthquake sources: (1) the ergodic assumption, recent history, and simplified descriptions of the hazard are not appropriate to rely on for earthquake ground motion prediction and can lead to a mis-estimation of the hazard and risk to structures; (2) a physics-based approach can address these issues; (3) a physics-based source model must be provided to generate realistic phasing effects from finite rupture and model near-source ground motion correctly; (4) wave propagations and site response should be site specific; (5) a much wider search of possible sources of ground motion can be achieved computationally with a physics-based approach; (6) unless one utilizes a physics-based approach, the hazard and risk to structures has unknown uncertainties; (7) uncertainties can be reduced with a physics-based approach, but not with an ergodic approach; (8) computational power and computer codes have advanced to the point that risk to structures can be calculated directly from source and site-specific ground motions. Spanning the variability of potential ground motion in a predictive situation is especially difficult for near-source areas, but that is the distance at which the hazard is the greatest. The basis of a "physical-based" approach is ground-motion syntheses derived from physics and an understanding of the earthquake process. This is an overview paper and results from previous studies are used to make the case for these conclusions. Our premise is that 50 years of strong motion records is insufficient to capture all possible ranges of site and propagation path conditions, rupture processes, and spatial geometric relationships between source and site. Predicting future earthquake scenarios is necessary; models that have little or no physical basis but have been tested and adjusted to fit available observations can only "predict" what happened in the past, which should be considered description as opposed to prediction. We have developed a methodology for synthesizing physics-based broadband ground motion that incorporates the effects of realistic earthquake rupture along specific faults and the actual geology between the source and site.

Uncertainty Analyses for Back Projection Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, H.; Wei, S.; Wu, W.

2017-12-01

So far few comprehensive error analyses for back projection methods have been conducted, although it is evident that high frequency seismic waves can be easily affected by earthquake depth, focal mechanisms and the Earth's 3D structures. Here we perform 1D and 3D synthetic tests for two back projection methods, MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) (Meng et al., 2011) and Compressive Sensing (CS) (Yao et al., 2011). We generate synthetics for both point sources and finite rupture sources with different depths, focal mechanisms, as well as 1D and 3D structures in the source region. The 3D synthetics are generated through a hybrid scheme of Direct Solution Method and Spectral Element Method. Then we back project the synthetic data using MUSIC and CS. The synthetic tests show that the depth phases can be back projected as artificial sources both in space and time. For instance, for a source depth of 10km, back projection gives a strong signal 8km away from the true source. Such bias increases with depth, e.g., the error of horizontal location could be larger than 20km for a depth of 40km. If the array is located around the nodal direction of direct P-waves the teleseismic P-waves are dominated by the depth phases. Therefore, back projections are actually imaging the reflection points of depth phases more than the rupture front. Besides depth phases, the strong and long lasted coda waves due to 3D effects near trench can lead to additional complexities tested here. The strength contrast of different frequency contents in the rupture models also produces some variations to the back projection results. In the synthetic tests, MUSIC and CS derive consistent results. While MUSIC is more computationally efficient, CS works better for sparse arrays. In summary, our analyses indicate that the impact of various factors mentioned above should be taken into consideration when interpreting back projection images, before we can use them to infer the earthquake rupture physics.

Testing long-period ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes using the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah mainshock: Evaluation of finite-fault rupture characterization and 3D seismic velocity models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, Robert W.; Aagaard, Brad T.

2011-01-01

Using a suite of five hypothetical finite-fault rupture models, we test the ability of long-period (T>2.0 s) ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes to produce waveforms throughout southern California consistent with those recorded during the 4 April 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. The hypothetical ruptures are generated using the methodology proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2010) and require, as inputs, only a general description of the fault location and geometry, event magnitude, and hypocenter, as would be done for a scenario event. For each rupture model, two Southern California Earthquake Center three-dimensional community seismic velocity models (CVM-4m and CVM-H62) are used, resulting in a total of 10 ground-motion simulations, which we compare with recorded ground motions. While the details of the motions vary across the simulations, the median levels match the observed peak ground velocities reasonably well, with the standard deviation of the residuals generally within 50% of the median. Simulations with the CVM-4m model yield somewhat lower variance than those with the CVM-H62 model. Both models tend to overpredict motions in the San Diego region and underpredict motions in the Mojave desert. Within the greater Los Angeles basin, the CVM-4m model generally matches the level of observed motions, whereas the CVM-H62 model tends to overpredict the motions, particularly in the southern portion of the basin. The variance in the peak velocity residuals is lowest for a rupture that has significant shallow slip (<5 km depth), whereas the variance in the residuals is greatest for ruptures with large asperities below 10 km depth. Overall, these results are encouraging and provide confidence in the predictive capabilities of the simulation methodology, while also suggesting some regions in which the seismic velocity models may need improvement.

Near-field tsunami edge waves and complex earthquake rupture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.

2013-01-01

The effect of distributed coseismic slip on progressive, near-field edge waves is examined for continental shelf tsunamis. Detailed observations of edge waves are difficult to separate from the other tsunami phases that are observed on tide gauge records. In this study, analytic methods are used to compute tsunami edge waves distributed over a finite number of modes and for uniformly sloping bathymetry. Coseismic displacements from static elastic theory are introduced as initial conditions in calculating the evolution of progressive edge-waves. Both simple crack representations (constant stress drop) and stochastic slip models (heterogeneous stress drop) are tested on a fault with geometry similar to that of the M w = 8.8 2010 Chile earthquake. Crack-like ruptures that are beneath or that span the shoreline result in similar longshore patterns of maximum edge-wave amplitude. Ruptures located farther offshore result in reduced edge-wave excitation, consistent with previous studies. Introduction of stress-drop heterogeneity by way of stochastic slip models results in significantly more variability in longshore edge-wave patterns compared to crack-like ruptures for the same offshore source position. In some cases, regions of high slip that are spatially distinct will yield sub-events, in terms of tsunami generation. Constructive interference of both non-trapped and trapped waves can yield significantly larger tsunamis than those that produced by simple earthquake characterizations.

Finite Element Simulations of Kaikoura, NZ Earthquake using DInSAR and High-Resolution DSMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barba, M.; Willis, M. J.; Tiampo, K. F.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Clark, M. K.; Zekkos, D.; Stahl, T. A.; Massey, C. I.

2017-12-01

Three-dimensional displacements from the Kaikoura, NZ, earthquake in November 2016 are imaged here using Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) and high-resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM) differencing and optical pixel tracking. Full-resolution co- and post-seismic interferograms of Sentinel-1A/B images are constructed using the JPL ISCE software. The OSU SETSM software is used to produce repeat 0.5 m posting DSMs from commercial satellite imagery, which are supplemented with UAV derived DSMs over the Kaikoura fault rupture on the eastern South Island, NZ. DInSAR provides long-wavelength motions while DSM differencing and optical pixel tracking provides both horizontal and vertical near fault motions, improving the modeling of shallow rupture dynamics. JPL GeoFEST software is used to perform finite element modeling of the fault segments and slip distributions and, in turn, the associated asperity distribution. The asperity profile is then used to simulate event rupture, the spatial distribution of stress drop, and the associated stress changes. Finite element modeling of slope stability is accomplished using the ultra high-resolution UAV derived DSMs to examine the evolution of post-earthquake topography, landslide dynamics and volumes. Results include new insights into shallow dynamics of fault slip and partitioning, estimates of stress change, and improved understanding of its relationship with the associated seismicity, deformation, and triggered cascading hazards.

Simulation model of an eyeball based on finite element analysis on a supercomputer.

PubMed

Uchio, E; Ohno, S; Kudoh, J; Aoki, K; Kisielewicz, L T

1999-10-01

A simulation model of the human eye was developed. It was applied to the determination of the physical and mechanical conditions of impacting foreign bodies causing intraocular foreign body (IOFB) injuries. Modules of the Hypermesh (Altair Engineering, Tokyo, Japan) were used for solid modelling, geometric construction, and finite element mesh creation based on information obtained from cadaver eyes. The simulations were solved by a supercomputer using the finite element analysis (FEA) program PAM-CRASH (Nihon ESI, Tokyo, Japan). It was assumed that rupture occurs at a strain of 18.0% in the cornea and 6.8% in the sclera and at a stress of 9.4 MPa for both cornea and sclera. Blunt-shaped missiles were shot and set to impact on the surface of the cornea or sclera at velocities of 30 and 60 m/s, respectively. According to the simulation, the sizes of missile above which corneal rupture occurred at velocities of 30 and 60 m/s were 1.95 and 0.82 mm. The missile sizes causing scleral rupture were 0.95 and 0.75 mm at velocities of 30 and 60 m/s. These results suggest that this FEA model has potential usefulness as a simulation tool for ocular injury and it may provide useful information for developing protective measures against industrial and traffic ocular injuries.

Modeling of the strong ground motion of 25th April 2015 Nepal earthquake using modified semi-empirical technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lal, Sohan; Joshi, A.; Sandeep; Tomer, Monu; Kumar, Parveen; Kuo, Chun-Hsiang; Lin, Che-Min; Wen, Kuo-Liang; Sharma, M. L.

2018-05-01

On 25th April, 2015 a hazardous earthquake of moment magnitude 7.9 occurred in Nepal. Accelerographs were used to record the Nepal earthquake which is installed in the Kumaon region in the Himalayan state of Uttrakhand. The distance of the recorded stations in the Kumaon region from the epicenter of the earthquake is about 420-515 km. Modified semi-empirical technique of modeling finite faults has been used in this paper to simulate strong earthquake at these stations. Source parameters of the Nepal aftershock have been also calculated using the Brune model in the present study which are used in the modeling of the Nepal main shock. The obtained value of the seismic moment and stress drop is 8.26 × 1025 dyn cm and 10.48 bar, respectively, for the aftershock from the Brune model .The simulated earthquake time series were compared with the observed records of the earthquake. The comparison of full waveform and its response spectra has been made to finalize the rupture parameters and its location. The rupture of the earthquake was propagated in the NE-SW direction from the hypocenter with the rupture velocity 3.0 km/s from a distance of 80 km from Kathmandu in NW direction at a depth of 12 km as per compared results.

Seafloor observations indicate spatial separation of coseismic and postseismic slips in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iinuma, Takeshi; Hino, Ryota; Uchida, Naoki; Nakamura, Wataru; Kido, Motoyuki; Osada, Yukihito; Miura, Satoshi

2016-11-01

Large interplate earthquakes are often followed by postseismic slip that is considered to occur in areas surrounding the coseismic ruptures. Such spatial separation is expected from the difference in frictional and material properties in and around the faults. However, even though the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ruptured a vast area on the plate interface, the estimation of high-resolution slip is usually difficult because of the lack of seafloor geodetic data. Here using the seafloor and terrestrial geodetic data, we investigated the postseismic slip to examine whether it was spatially separated with the coseismic slip by applying a comprehensive finite-element method model to subtract the viscoelastic components from the observed postseismic displacements. The high-resolution co- and postseismic slip distributions clarified the spatial separation, which also agreed with the activities of interplate and repeating earthquakes. These findings suggest that the conventional frictional property model is valid for the source region of gigantic earthquakes.

Seafloor observations indicate spatial separation of coseismic and postseismic slips in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

PubMed Central

Iinuma, Takeshi; Hino, Ryota; Uchida, Naoki; Nakamura, Wataru; Kido, Motoyuki; Osada, Yukihito; Miura, Satoshi

2016-01-01

Large interplate earthquakes are often followed by postseismic slip that is considered to occur in areas surrounding the coseismic ruptures. Such spatial separation is expected from the difference in frictional and material properties in and around the faults. However, even though the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ruptured a vast area on the plate interface, the estimation of high-resolution slip is usually difficult because of the lack of seafloor geodetic data. Here using the seafloor and terrestrial geodetic data, we investigated the postseismic slip to examine whether it was spatially separated with the coseismic slip by applying a comprehensive finite-element method model to subtract the viscoelastic components from the observed postseismic displacements. The high-resolution co- and postseismic slip distributions clarified the spatial separation, which also agreed with the activities of interplate and repeating earthquakes. These findings suggest that the conventional frictional property model is valid for the source region of gigantic earthquakes. PMID:27853138

Modeling Earthquake Rupture and Corresponding Tsunamis Along a Segment of the Alaskan-Aleutian Megathrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, K. J.; Geist, E. L.; Oglesby, D. D.; Kyriakopoulos, C.

2016-12-01

Motivated by the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-Oki event, we explore the effects of realistic fault dynamics on slip, free surface deformation, and the resulting tsunami generation and local propagation from a hypothetical Mw 9 megathrust earthquake along the Alaskan-Aleutian (A-A) Megathrust. We demonstrate three scenarios: a spatially-homogenous prestress and frictional parameter model and two models with rate-strengthening-like friction (e.g., Dieterich, 1992). We use a dynamic finite element code to model 3-D ruptures, using time-weakening friction (Andrews, 2004) as a proxy for rate-strengthening friction, along a portion of the A-A subduction zone. Given geometric, material, and plate-coupling data along the A-A megathrust assembled from the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) team (e.g., Bruns et al., 1987; Hayes et al., 2012; Johnson et al., 2004; Santini et al., 2003; Wells at al., 2003), we are able to dynamically model rupture. Adding frictional-strengthening to a region of the fault reduces both average slip and free surface displacement above the strengthening zone, with the magnitude of the reductions depending on the strengthening zone location. Corresponding tsunami models, which use a finite difference method to solve the long-wave equations (e.g., Liu et al., 1995; Satake, 2002; Shuto, 1991), match sea floor displacement, in time, to the free surface displacement from the rupture models. Tsunami models show changes in local peak amplitudes and beaming patterns for each slip distribution. Given these results, other heterogeneous parameterizations, with respect to prestress and friction, still need to be examined. Additionally, a more realistic fault geometry will likely affect the rupture dynamics. Thus, future work will incorporate stochastic stress and friction distributions as well as a more complex fault geometry based on Slab 1.0 (Hayes et al., 2012).

How material contrast around subduction faults may control coseismic slip and rupture dynamics: tsunami applications for the case study of Tohoku

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scala, Antonio; Murphy, Shane; Romano, Fabrizio; Lorito, Stefano; Festa, Gaetano; Volpe, Manuela; Piatanesi, Alessio

2017-04-01

Recent megathrust tsunamigenic events, e.g. Maule 2010 (M8.8) and Tohoku 2011 (M9.0), generated huge tsunami waves as a consequence of high slip in the shallow part of the respective subduction zone. Other events, (e.g. the recent Mentawai 2010, M7.8, or the historical Meiji 1896, M8.2), referred to as tsunami earthquakes, produced unexpectedly large tsunami waves, probably due to large slip at shallow depth over longer rupture durations compared to deeper thrust events. Subduction zone earthquakes originate and propagate along bimaterial interfaces separating materials having different elastic properties, e.g. continental and oceanic crust, a stiffer deep mantle wedge, shallow compliant accretionary prism etc. Bimaterial interfaces have been showed, through observations (seismological and laboratory) and theoretical studies, to affect the rupture: introducing a preferred rupture direction as well as asymmetric rupture velocities and shear stress redistributions. Such features are predominantly due to the break of symmetry between the two sides of the interface in turn ascribable to the complex coupling between the frictional interfacial sliding and the slip-induced normal stress perturbations. In order to examine the influence of material contrast on a fault plane on the seismic source and tsunami waves, we modelled a Tohoku-like subduction zone to perform a large number of 2D along-dip rupture dynamics simulations in the framework of linear slip weakening both for homogeneous and bimaterial fault. In this latter model, the rupture acts as the interface between the subducting oceanic crust and the overriding layers (accretionary prism, continental crust and mantle wedge), varying the position of the shear stress asperity acting as nucleation patch. Initial results reveal that ruptures in homogeneous media produce earthquakes with large slip at depth compared to the case where bi-material interface is included. However the opposite occurs for events nucleating at intermediate depths: the compliant accretionary prism favours slip up to the free surface leading to larger events compared to the homogeneous case. These preliminary findings will be further investigated considering different material contrasts between the slab and the overriding accretionary prism to mimic the slowness of the sedimentary wedge. This will contribute to assess the influence of these contrasts in more realistic environment on the seismic source features and, in turn, on the conditional probability of exceedance for maximum tsunami wave height for a M9 event. Several source parameters, such as coseismic slip, rupture duration, rupture velocity and stress conditions, derived from the numerical simulations will be compared to those inferred from real events using existing finite fault catalogues (e.g. USGS, SRCMOD, etc.).

A grid-doubling finite-element technique for calculating dynamic three-dimensional spontaneous rupture on an earthquake fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barall, Michael

2009-01-01

We present a new finite-element technique for calculating dynamic 3-D spontaneous rupture on an earthquake fault, which can reduce the required computational resources by a factor of six or more, without loss of accuracy. The grid-doubling technique employs small cells in a thin layer surrounding the fault. The remainder of the modelling volume is filled with larger cells, typically two or four times as large as the small cells. In the resulting non-conforming mesh, an interpolation method is used to join the thin layer of smaller cells to the volume of larger cells. Grid-doubling is effective because spontaneous rupture calculations typically require higher spatial resolution on and near the fault than elsewhere in the model volume. The technique can be applied to non-planar faults by morphing, or smoothly distorting, the entire mesh to produce the desired 3-D fault geometry. Using our FaultMod finite-element software, we have tested grid-doubling with both slip-weakening and rate-and-state friction laws, by running the SCEC/USGS 3-D dynamic rupture benchmark problems. We have also applied it to a model of the Hayward fault, Northern California, which uses realistic fault geometry and rock properties. FaultMod implements fault slip using common nodes, which represent motion common to both sides of the fault, and differential nodes, which represent motion of one side of the fault relative to the other side. We describe how to modify the traction-at-split-nodes method to work with common and differential nodes, using an implicit time stepping algorithm.

Dynamic rupture modeling of thrust faults with parallel surface traces.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peshette, P.; Lozos, J.; Yule, D.

2017-12-01

Fold and thrust belts (such as those found in the Himalaya or California Transverse Ranges) consist of many neighboring thrust faults in a variety of geometries. Active thrusts within these belts individually contribute to regional seismic hazard, but further investigation is needed regarding the possibility of multi-fault rupture in a single event. Past analyses of historic thrust surface traces suggest that rupture within a single event can jump up to 12 km. There is also observational precedent for long distance triggering between subparallel thrusts (e.g. the 1997 Harnai, Pakistan events, separated by 50 km). However, previous modeling studies find a maximum jumping rupture distance between thrust faults of merely 200 m. Here, we present a new dynamic rupture modeling parameter study that attempts to reconcile these differences and determine which geometrical and stress conditions promote jumping rupture. We use a community verified 3D finite element method to model rupture on pairs of thrust faults with parallel surface traces. We vary stress drop and fault strength to determine which conditions produce jumping rupture at different dip angles and different separations between surface traces. This parameter study may help to understand the likelihood of jumping rupture in real-world thrust systems, and may thereby improve earthquake hazard assessment.

Co- and post-seismic shallow fault physics from near-field geodesy, seismic tomography, and mechanical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nevitt, J.; Brooks, B. A.; Catchings, R.; Goldman, M.; Criley, C.; Chan, J. H.; Glennie, C. L.; Ericksen, T. L.; Madugo, C. M.

2017-12-01

The physics governing near-surface fault slip and deformation are largely unknown, introducing significant uncertainty into seismic hazard models. Here we combine near-field measurements of surface deformation from the 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake with high-resolution seismic imaging and finite element models to investigate the effects of rupture speed, elastic heterogeneities, and plasticity on shallow faulting. We focus on two sites that experienced either predominantly co-seismic or post-seismic slip. We measured surface deformation with mobile laser scanning of deformed vine rows within 300 m of the fault at 1 week and 1 month after the event. Shear strain profiles for the co- and post-seismic sites are similar, with maxima of 0.012 and 0.013 and values exceeding 0.002 occurring within 26 m- and 18 m-wide zones, respectively. That the rupture remained buried at the two sites and produced similar deformation fields suggests that permanent deformation due to dynamic stresses did not differ significantly from the quasi-static case, which might be expected if the rupture decelerated as it approached the surface. Active-source seismic surveys, 120 m in length with 1 m geophone/shot spacing, reveal shallow compliant zones of reduced shear modulus. For the co- and post-seismic sites, the tomographic anomaly (Vp/Vs > 5) at 20 m depth has a width of 80 m and 50 m, respectively, much wider than the observed surface displacement fields. We investigate this discrepancy with a suite of finite element models in which a planar fault is buried 5 m below the surface. The model continuum is defined by either homogeneous or heterogeneous elastic properties, with or without Drucker-Prager plastic yielding, with properties derived from lab testing of similar near-surface materials. We find that plastic yielding can greatly narrow the surface displacement zone, but that the width of this zone is largely insensitive to changes in the elastic structure (i.e., the presence of a compliant zone).

The 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake sequence: I. Source modeling and deterministic 3D ground shaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Shengji; Chen, Meng; Wang, Xin; Graves, Robert; Lindsey, Eric; Wang, Teng; Karakaş, Çağıl; Helmberger, Don

2018-01-01

To better quantify the relatively long period (< 0.3 Hz) shaking experienced during the 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake sequence, we study the finite rupture processes and the associated 3D ground motion of the Mw7.8 mainshock and the Mw7.2 aftershock. The 3D synthetics are then used in the broadband ground shaking in Kathmandu with a hybrid approach, summarized in a companion paper (Chen and Wei, 2017, submitted together). We determined the coseismic rupture process of the mainshock by joint inversion of InSAR/SAR, GPS (static and high-rate), strong motion and teleseismic waveforms. Our inversion for the mainshock indicates unilateral rupture towards the ESE, with an average rupture speed of 3.0 km/s and a total duration of 60 s. Additionally, we find that the beginning part of the rupture (5-18 s) has about 40% longer rise time than the rest of the rupture, as well as slower rupture velocity. Our model shows two strong asperities occurring 24 s and 36 s after the origin and located 30 km to the northwest and northeast of the Kathmandu valley, respectively. In contrast, the Mw7.2 aftershock is more compact both in time and space, as revealed by joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and InSAR data. The different rupture features between the mainshock and the aftershock could be related to difference in fault zone structure. The mainshock and aftershock ground motions in the Kathmandu valley, recorded by both strong motion and high-rate GPS stations, exhibited strong amplification around 0.2 Hz. A simplified 3D basin model, calibrated by an Mw5.2 aftershock, can match the observed waveforms reasonably well at 0.3 Hz and lower frequency. The 3D simulations indicate that the basin structure trapped the wavefield and produced an extensive ground vibration. Our study suggests that the combination of rupture characteristics and propagational complexity are required to understand the ground shaking produced by hazardous earthquakes such as the Gorkha event.

Source process and tectonic implication of the January 20, 2007 Odaesan earthquake, South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Fattah, Ali K.; Kim, K. Y.; Fnais, M. S.; Al-Amri, A. M.

2014-04-01

The source process for the 20th of January 2007, Mw 4.5 Odaesan earthquake in South Korea is investigated in the low- and high-frequency bands, using velocity and acceleration waveform data recorded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Seismographic Network at distances less than 70 km from the epicenter. Synthetic Green functions are adopted for the low-frequency band of 0.1-0.3 Hz by using the wave-number integration technique and the one dimensional velocity model beneath the epicentral area. An iterative technique was performed by a grid search across the strike, dip, rake, and focal depth of rupture nucleation parameters to find the best-fit double-couple mechanism. To resolve the nodal plane ambiguity, the spatiotemporal slip distribution on the fault surface was recovered using a non-negative least-square algorithm for each set of the grid-searched parameters. The focal depth of 10 km was determined through the grid search for depths in the range of 6-14 km. The best-fit double-couple mechanism obtained from the finite-source model indicates a vertical strike-slip faulting mechanism. The NW faulting plane gives comparatively smaller root-mean-squares (RMS) error than its auxiliary plane. Slip pattern event provides simple source process due to the effect of Low-frequency that acted as a point source model. Three empirical Green functions are adopted to investigate the source process in the high-frequency band. A set of slip models was recovered on both nodal planes of the focal mechanism with various rupture velocities in the range of 2.0-4.0 km/s. Although there is a small difference between the RMS errors produced by the two orthogonal nodal planes, the SW dipping plane gives a smaller RMS error than its auxiliary plane. The slip distribution is relatively assessable by the oblique pattern recovered around the hypocenter in the high-frequency analysis; indicating a complex rupture scenario for such moderate-sized earthquake, similar to those reported for large earthquakes.

Rupture History of the 2001 Nisqually Washington Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Q.; Creager, K. C.; Crosson, R. S.

2001-12-01

We analyze the temporal-spatial rupture history of the magnitude 6.8 February 28, 2001 Nisqually earthquake using about two dozen 3-component strong-motion records from the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) and the USGS National Strong Motion Program (NSMP) network. We employ a finite-fault inversion scheme similar to Hartzell and Heaton [Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 1983] to recover the slip history. We assume rupture initiates at the epicenter and origin time determined using PNSN P arrival times and a high-resolution 3-D velocity model. Hypocentral depth is 54 km based on our analysis of teleseismic pP-P times and the regional 3-D model. Using the IASP91 standard Earth model to explain the pP-P times gives a depth of 58 km. Three-component strong motion accelerograms are integrated to obtain velocity, low-pass filtered at 4 s period and windowed to include the direct P- and S- wave arrivals. Theoretical Green's functions are calculated using the Direct Solution Method (DSM) [Cummins, etal, Geophys. Res. Lett., 1994] for each of 169, 4km x 4km, subfaults which lie on one of the two fault plates specified by the Harvard CMT solution. A unique 1-D model that gives an adequate representation of velocity structure for each station is obtained by path averaging the 3-D tomographic model. The S velocity model is generated from the P velocity model. For Vp larger than 4.5 km/s, We use the linear relationship Vs=0.18+0.52Vp obtained from laboratory measurements of local mafic rock samples. For slower velocities, probably associated with sedimentary rocks, we derived Vs=Vp/2.04 which best fits the strong-motion S-arrival times. The resulting source model indicates unilateral rupture along a fault that is elongated in the north-south direction. Inversion for the near vertical (strike 1° , dip 72° ) and horizontal (strike 183° , dip 18° ) fault planes reveal the same source directivity, however, the horizontal fault plane gives a slightly better fit to the data than the vertical one. We will also incorporate teleseismic P pP and sP waves into the waveform modeling to provide additional constraints on vertical source directivity.

Mach wave properties in the presence of source and medium heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyas, J. C.; Mai, P. M.; Galis, M.; Dunham, Eric M.; Imperatori, W.

2018-06-01

We investigate Mach wave coherence for kinematic supershear ruptures with spatially heterogeneous source parameters, embedded in 3D scattering media. We assess Mach wave coherence considering: 1) source heterogeneities in terms of variations in slip, rise time and rupture speed; 2) small-scale heterogeneities in Earth structure, parameterized from combinations of three correlation lengths and two standard deviations (assuming von Karman power spectral density with fixed Hurst exponent); and 3) joint effects of source and medium heterogeneities. Ground-motion simulations are conducted using a generalized finite-difference method, choosing a parameterization such that the highest resolved frequency is ˜5 Hz. We discover that Mach wave coherence is slightly diminished at near fault distances (< 10 km) due to spatially variable slip and rise time; beyond this distance the Mach wave coherence is more strongly reduced by wavefield scattering due to small-scale heterogeneities in Earth structure. Based on our numerical simulations and theoretical considerations we demonstrate that the standard deviation of medium heterogeneities controls the wavefield scattering, rather than the correlation length. In addition, we find that peak ground accelerations in the case of combined source and medium heterogeneities are consistent with empirical ground motion prediction equations for all distances, suggesting that in nature ground shaking amplitudes for supershear ruptures may not be elevated due to complexities in the rupture process and seismic wave-scattering.

Period-dependent source rupture behavior of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake estimated by multi period-band Bayesian waveform inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubo, H.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Aoi, S.

2014-12-01

Previous studies for the period-dependent source characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (e.g., Koper et al., 2011; Lay et al., 2012) were based on the short and long period source models using different method. Kubo et al. (2013) obtained source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake using multi period-bands waveform data by a common inversion method and discussed its period-dependent source characteristics. In this study, to achieve more in detail spatiotemporal source rupture behavior of this event, we introduce a new fault surface model having finer sub-fault size and estimate the source models in multi period-bands using a Bayesian inversion method combined with a multi-time-window method. Three components of velocity waveforms at 25 stations of K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net of NIED are used in this analysis. The target period band is 10-100 s. We divide this period band into three period bands (10-25 s, 25-50 s, and 50-100 s) and estimate a kinematic source model in each period band using a Bayesian inversion method with MCMC sampling (e.g., Fukuda & Johnson, 2008; Minson et al., 2013, 2014). The parameterization of spatiotemporal slip distribution follows the multi-time-window method (Hartzell & Heaton, 1983). The Green's functions are calculated by the 3D FDM (GMS; Aoi & Fujiwara, 1999) using a 3D velocity structure model (JIVSM; Koketsu et al., 2012). The assumed fault surface model is based on the Pacific plate boundary of JIVSM and is divided into 384 subfaults of about 16 * 16 km^2. The estimated source models in multi period-bands show the following source image: (1) First deep rupture off Miyagi at 0-60 s toward down-dip mostly radiating relatively short period (10-25 s) seismic waves. (2) Shallow rupture off Miyagi at 45-90 s toward up-dip with long duration radiating long period (50-100 s) seismic wave. (3) Second deep rupture off Miyagi at 60-105 s toward down-dip radiating longer period seismic waves then that of the first deep rupture. (4) Deep rupture off Fukushima at 90-135 s. The dominant-period difference of the seismic-wave radiation between two deep ruptures off Miyagi may result from the mechanism that small-scale heterogeneities on the fault are removed by the first rupture. This difference can be also interpreted by the concept of multi-scale dynamic rupture (Ide & Aochi, 2005).

A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matthews, M.V.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Reasenberg, P.A.

2002-01-01

We construct a probability model for rupture times on a recurrent earthquake source. Adding Brownian perturbations to steady tectonic loading produces a stochastic load-state process. Rupture is assumed to occur when this process reaches a critical-failure threshold. An earthquake relaxes the load state to a characteristic ground level and begins a new failure cycle. The load-state process is a Brownian relaxation oscillator. Intervals between events have a Brownian passage-time distribution that may serve as a temporal model for time-dependent, long-term seismic forecasting. This distribution has the following noteworthy properties: (1) the probability of immediate rerupture is zero; (2) the hazard rate increases steadily from zero at t = 0 to a finite maximum near the mean recurrence time and then decreases asymptotically to a quasi-stationary level, in which the conditional probability of an event becomes time independent; and (3) the quasi-stationary failure rate is greater than, equal to, or less than the mean failure rate because the coefficient of variation is less than, equal to, or greater than 1/???2 ??? 0.707. In addition, the model provides expressions for the hazard rate and probability of rupture on faults for which only a bound can be placed on the time of the last rupture. The Brownian relaxation oscillator provides a connection between observable event times and a formal state variable that reflects the macromechanics of stress and strain accumulation. Analysis of this process reveals that the quasi-stationary distance to failure has a gamma distribution, and residual life has a related exponential distribution. It also enables calculation of "interaction" effects due to external perturbations to the state, such as stress-transfer effects from earthquakes outside the target source. The influence of interaction effects on recurrence times is transient and strongly dependent on when in the loading cycle step pertubations occur. Transient effects may be much stronger than would be predicted by the "clock change" method and characteristically decay inversely with elapsed time after the perturbation.

Comparison of seismic waveform inversion results for the rupture history of a finite fault: application to the 1986 North Palm Springs, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.

1989-01-01

The July 8, 1986, North Palm Strings earthquake is used as a basis for comparison of several different approaches to the solution for the rupture history of a finite fault. The inversion of different waveform data is considered; both teleseismic P waveforms and local strong ground motion records. Linear parametrizations for slip amplitude are compared with nonlinear parametrizations for both slip amplitude and rupture time. Inversions using both synthetic and empirical Green's functions are considered. In general, accurate Green's functions are more readily calculable for the teleseismic problem where simple ray theory and flat-layered velocity structures are usually sufficient. However, uncertainties in the variation in t* with frequency most limit the resolution of teleseismic inversions. A set of empirical Green's functions that are well recorded at teleseismic distances could avoid the uncertainties in attenuation. In the inversion of strong motion data, the accurate calculation of propagation path effects other than attenuation effects is the limiting factor in the resolution of source parameters. -from Author

Global high-frequency source imaging accounting for complexity in Green's functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, V.; Zhan, Z.

2017-12-01

The general characterization of earthquake source processes at long periods has seen great success via seismic finite fault inversion/modeling. Complementary techniques, such as seismic back-projection, extend the capabilities of source imaging to higher frequencies and reveal finer details of the rupture process. However, such high frequency methods are limited by the implicit assumption of simple Green's functions, which restricts the use of global arrays and introduces artifacts (e.g., sweeping effects, depth/water phases) that require careful attention. This motivates the implementation of an imaging technique that considers the potential complexity of Green's functions at high frequencies. We propose an alternative inversion approach based on the modest assumption that the path effects contributing to signals within high-coherency subarrays share a similar form. Under this assumption, we develop a method that can combine multiple high-coherency subarrays to invert for a sparse set of subevents. By accounting for potential variability in the Green's functions among subarrays, our method allows for the utilization of heterogeneous global networks for robust high resolution imaging of the complex rupture process. The approach also provides a consistent framework for examining frequency-dependent radiation across a broad frequency spectrum.

Rupture Propagation for Stochastic Fault Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Favreau, P.; Lavallee, D.; Archuleta, R.

2003-12-01

The inversion of strong motion data of large earhquakes give the spatial distribution of pre-stress on the ruptured faults and it can be partially reproduced by stochastic models, but a fundamental question remains: how rupture propagates, constrained by the presence of spatial heterogeneity? For this purpose we investigate how the underlying random variables, that control the pre-stress spatial variability, condition the propagation of the rupture. Two stochastic models of prestress distributions are considered, respectively based on Cauchy and Gaussian random variables. The parameters of the two stochastic models have values corresponding to the slip distribution of the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake. We use a finite difference code to simulate the spontaneous propagation of shear rupture on a flat fault in a 3D continuum elastic body. The friction law is the slip dependent friction law. The simulations show that the propagation of the rupture front is more complex, incoherent or snake-like for a prestress distribution based on Cauchy random variables. This may be related to the presence of a higher number of asperities in this case. These simulations suggest that directivity is stronger in the Cauchy scenario, compared to the smoother rupture of the Gauss scenario.

Bayesian exploration of recent Chilean earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Liang, Cunren; Agram, Piyush; Owen, Susan; Ortega, Francisco; Minson, Sarah

2016-04-01

The South-American subduction zone is an exceptional natural laboratory for investigating the behavior of large faults over the earthquake cycle. It is also a playground to develop novel modeling techniques combining different datasets. Coastal Chile was impacted by two major earthquakes in the last two years: the 2015 M 8.3 Illapel earthquake in central Chile and the 2014 M 8.1 Iquique earthquake that ruptured the central portion of the 1877 seismic gap in northern Chile. To gain better understanding of the distribution of co-seismic slip for those two earthquakes, we derive joint kinematic finite fault models using a combination of static GPS offsets, radar interferograms, tsunami measurements, high-rate GPS waveforms and strong motion data. Our modeling approach follows a Bayesian formulation devoid of a priori smoothing thereby allowing us to maximize spatial resolution of the inferred family of models. The adopted approach also attempts to account for major sources of uncertainty in the Green's functions. The results reveal different rupture behaviors for the 2014 Iquique and 2015 Illapel earthquakes. The 2014 Iquique earthquake involved a sharp slip zone and did not rupture to the trench. The 2015 Illapel earthquake nucleated close to the coast and propagated toward the trench with significant slip apparently reaching the trench or at least very close to the trench. At the inherent resolution of our models, we also present the relationship of co-seismic models to the spatial distribution of foreshocks, aftershocks and fault coupling models.

Constraining Earthquake Source Parameters in Rupture Patches and Rupture Barriers on Gofar Transform Fault, East Pacific Rise from Ocean Bottom Seismic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moyer, P. A.; Boettcher, M. S.; McGuire, J. J.; Collins, J. A.

2015-12-01

On Gofar transform fault on the East Pacific Rise (EPR), Mw ~6.0 earthquakes occur every ~5 years and repeatedly rupture the same asperity (rupture patch), while the intervening fault segments (rupture barriers to the largest events) only produce small earthquakes. In 2008, an ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) deployment successfully captured the end of a seismic cycle, including an extensive foreshock sequence localized within a 10 km rupture barrier, the Mw 6.0 mainshock and its aftershocks that occurred in a ~10 km rupture patch, and an earthquake swarm located in a second rupture barrier. Here we investigate whether the inferred variations in frictional behavior along strike affect the rupture processes of 3.0 < M < 4.5 earthquakes by determining source parameters for 100 earthquakes recorded during the OBS deployment.Using waveforms with a 50 Hz sample rate from OBS accelerometers, we calculate stress drop using an omega-squared source model, where the weighted average corner frequency is derived from an empirical Green's function (EGF) method. We obtain seismic moment by fitting the omega-squared source model to the low frequency amplitude of individual spectra and account for attenuation using Q obtained from a velocity model through the foreshock zone. To ensure well-constrained corner frequencies, we require that the Brune [1970] model provides a statistically better fit to each spectral ratio than a linear model and that the variance is low between the data and model. To further ensure that the fit to the corner frequency is not influenced by resonance of the OBSs, we require a low variance close to the modeled corner frequency. Error bars on corner frequency were obtained through a grid search method where variance is within 10% of the best-fit value. Without imposing restrictive selection criteria, slight variations in corner frequencies from rupture patches and rupture barriers are not discernable. Using well-constrained source parameters, we find an average stress drop of 5.7 MPa in the aftershock zone compared to values of 2.4 and 2.9 MPa in the foreshock and swarm zones respectively. The higher stress drops in the rupture patch compared to the rupture barriers reflect systematic differences in along strike fault zone properties on Gofar transform fault.

Patient-specific finite element analysis of ascending aorta aneurysms

PubMed Central

Martin, Caitlin; Elefteriades, John

2015-01-01

Catastrophic ascending aorta aneurysm (AsAA) dissection and rupture can be prevented by elective surgical repair, but identifying individuals at risk remains a challenge. Typically the decision to operate is based primarily on the overall aneurysm size, which may not be a reliable indicator of risk. In this study, AsAA inflation and rupture was simulated in 27 patient-specific finite element models constructed from clinical CT imaging data and tissue mechanical testing data from matching patients. These patients included n = 8 with concomitant bicuspid aortic valve (BAV), n = 10 with bovine aortic arch (BAA), and n = 10 with neither BAV nor BAA. AsAA rupture risk was found to increase with elevated systolic wall stress and tissue stiffness. The aortic size index was sufficient for identifying the patients with the lowest risk of rupture, but unsuitable for delineating between patients at moderate and high risk. There was no correlation between BAV or BAA and AsAA rupture risk; however, the AsAA morphology was different among these patients. These results support the use of mechanical parameters such as vessel wall stress and tissue stiffness for AsAA presurgical evaluation. PMID:25770248

Simulation model of an eyeball based on finite element analysis on a supercomputer

PubMed Central

Uchio, E.; Ohno, S.; Kudoh, J.; Aoki, K.; Kisielewicz, L. T.

1999-01-01

BACKGROUND/AIMS—A simulation model of the human eye was developed. It was applied to the determination of the physical and mechanical conditions of impacting foreign bodies causing intraocular foreign body (IOFB) injuries.
METHODS—Modules of the Hypermesh (Altair Engineering, Tokyo, Japan) were used for solid modelling, geometric construction, and finite element mesh creation based on information obtained from cadaver eyes. The simulations were solved by a supercomputer using the finite element analysis (FEA) program PAM-CRASH (Nihon ESI, Tokyo, Japan). It was assumed that rupture occurs at a strain of 18.0% in the cornea and 6.8% in the sclera and at a stress of 9.4 MPa for both cornea and sclera. Blunt-shaped missiles were shot and set to impact on the surface of the cornea or sclera at velocities of 30 and 60 m/s, respectively.
RESULTS—According to the simulation, the sizes of missile above which corneal rupture occurred at velocities of 30 and 60 m/s were 1.95 and 0.82 mm. The missile sizes causing scleral rupture were 0.95 and 0.75 mm at velocities of 30 and 60 m/s.
CONCLUSIONS—These results suggest that this FEA model has potential usefulness as a simulation tool for ocular injury and it may provide useful information for developing protective measures against industrial and traffic ocular injuries.

 PMID:10502567

Strong Ground Motion Prediction By Composite Source Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burjanek, J.; Irikura, K.; Zahradnik, J.

2003-12-01

A composite source model, incorporating different sized subevents, provides a possible description of complex rupture processes during earthquakes. The number of subevents with characteristic dimension greater than R is proportional to R-2. The subevents do not overlap with each other, and the sum of their areas equals to the area of the target event (e.g. mainshock). The subevents are distributed randomly over the fault. Each subevent is modeled either as a finite or point source, differences between these choices are shown. The final slip and duration of each subevent is related to its characteristic dimension, using constant stress-drop scaling. Absolute value of subevents' stress drop is free parameter. The synthetic Green's functions are calculated by the discrete-wavenumber method in a 1D horizontally layered crustal model. An estimation of subevents' stress drop is based on fitting empirical attenuation relations for PGA and PGV, as they represent robust information on strong ground motion caused by earthquakes, including both path and source effect. We use the 2000 M6.6 Western Tottori, Japan, earthquake as validation event, providing comparison between predicted and observed waveforms.

Revisiting the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in a Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bletery, Q.; Sladen, A.; Jiang, J.; Simons, M.

2015-12-01

The 2004 Mw 9.25 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake is the largest seismic event of the modern instrumental era. Despite considerable effort to analyze the characteristics of its rupture, the different available observations have proven difficult to simultaneously integrate jointly into a finite-fault slip model. In particular, the critical near-field geodetic records contain variable and significant post-seismic signal (between 2 weeks and 2 months) while the satellite altimetry records of the associated tsunami are affected by various sources of uncertainties (e.g. source rupture velocity, meso-scale oceanic currents). In this study, we investigate the quasi-static slip distribution of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake by carefully accounting for the different sources of uncertainties in the joint inversion of an extended set of geodetic and tsunami data. To do so, we use non-diagonal covariance matrices reflecting both data and model uncertainties in a fully Bayesian inversion framework. As model errors are particularly large for mega-earthquakes, we also rely on advanced simulation codes (normal mode theory on a layered spherical Earth for the static displacement field and non-hydrostatic equations for the tsunami) and account for the 3D curvature of the megathrust interface to reduce the associated epistemic uncertainties. The fully Bayesian inversion framework then enables us to derive the families of possible models compatible with the unevenly distributed and sometimes ambiguous measurements. We find two regions of high slip at latitudes 3°-4°N and 7°-8°N with amplitudes that probably reached values as large as 40 m and possibly larger. Such amounts of slip were not proposed by previous studies, which might have been biased by smoothing regularizations. We also find significant slip (around 20 m) offshore Andaman islands absent in earlier studies. Furthermore, we find that the rupture very likely involved shallow slip, with the possibility of reaching the trench.

The 2013, Mw 7.7 Balochistan earthquake, energetic strike-slip reactivation of a thrust fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Ayoub, Francois; Wei, Shengji; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Meng, Lingsen; Leprince, Sebastien; Jolivet, Romain; Duputel, Zacharie; Helmberger, Don

2014-04-01

We analyse the Mw 7.7 Balochistan earthquake of 09/24/2013 based on ground surface deformation measured from sub-pixel correlation of Landsat-8 images, combined with back-projection and finite source modeling of teleseismic waveforms. The earthquake nucleated south of the Chaman strike-slip fault and propagated southwestward along the Hoshab fault at the front of the Kech Band. The rupture was mostly unilateral, propagated at 3 km/s on average and produced a 200 km surface fault trace with purely strike-slip displacement peaking to 10 m and averaging around 6 m. The finite source model shows that slip was maximum near the surface. Although the Hoshab fault is dipping by 45° to the North, in accordance with its origin as a thrust fault within the Makran accretionary prism, slip was nearly purely strike-slip during that earthquake. Large seismic slip on such a non-optimally oriented fault was enhanced possibly due to the influence of the free surface on dynamic stresses or to particular properties of the fault zone allowing for strong dynamic weakening. Strike-slip faulting on thrust fault within the eastern Makran is interpreted as due to eastward extrusion of the accretionary prism as it bulges out over the Indian plate. Portions of the Makran megathrust, some thrust faults in the Kirthar range and strike-slip faults within the Chaman fault system have been brought closer to failure by this earthquake. Aftershocks cluster within the Chaman fault system north of the epicenter, opposite to the direction of rupture propagation. By contrast, few aftershocks were detected in the area of maximum moment release. In this example, aftershocks cannot be used to infer earthquake characteristics.

A finite difference method for off-fault plasticity throughout the earthquake cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, Brittany A.; Dunham, Eric M.; Khosravifar, Arash

2017-12-01

We have developed an efficient computational framework for simulating multiple earthquake cycles with off-fault plasticity. The method is developed for the classical antiplane problem of a vertical strike-slip fault governed by rate-and-state friction, with inertial effects captured through the radiation-damping approximation. Both rate-independent plasticity and viscoplasticity are considered, where stresses are constrained by a Drucker-Prager yield condition. The off-fault volume is discretized using finite differences and tectonic loading is imposed by displacing the remote side boundaries at a constant rate. Time-stepping combines an adaptive Runge-Kutta method with an incremental solution process which makes use of an elastoplastic tangent stiffness tensor and the return-mapping algorithm. Solutions are verified by convergence tests and comparison to a finite element solution. We quantify how viscosity, isotropic hardening, and cohesion affect the magnitude and off-fault extent of plastic strain that develops over many ruptures. If hardening is included, plastic strain saturates after the first event and the response during subsequent ruptures is effectively elastic. For viscoplasticity without hardening, however, successive ruptures continue to generate additional plastic strain. In all cases, coseismic slip in the shallow sub-surface is diminished compared to slip accumulated at depth during interseismic loading. The evolution of this slip deficit with each subsequent event, however, is dictated by the plasticity model. Integration of the off-fault plastic strain from the viscoplastic model reveals that a significant amount of tectonic offset is accommodated by inelastic deformation ( ∼ 0.1 m per rupture, or ∼ 10% of the tectonic deformation budget).

Strong ground motion simulation of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake of April 16 using multiple point sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagasaka, Yosuke; Nozu, Atsushi

2017-02-01

The pseudo point-source model approximates the rupture process on faults with multiple point sources for simulating strong ground motions. A simulation with this point-source model is conducted by combining a simple source spectrum following the omega-square model with a path spectrum, an empirical site amplification factor, and phase characteristics. Realistic waveforms can be synthesized using the empirical site amplification factor and phase models even though the source model is simple. The Kumamoto earthquake occurred on April 16, 2016, with M JMA 7.3. Many strong motions were recorded at stations around the source region. Some records were considered to be affected by the rupture directivity effect. This earthquake was suitable for investigating the applicability of the pseudo point-source model, the current version of which does not consider the rupture directivity effect. Three subevents (point sources) were located on the fault plane, and the parameters of the simulation were determined. The simulated results were compared with the observed records at K-NET and KiK-net stations. It was found that the synthetic Fourier spectra and velocity waveforms generally explained the characteristics of the observed records, except for underestimation in the low frequency range. Troughs in the observed Fourier spectra were also well reproduced by placing multiple subevents near the hypocenter. The underestimation is presumably due to the following two reasons. The first is that the pseudo point-source model targets subevents that generate strong ground motions and does not consider the shallow large slip. The second reason is that the current version of the pseudo point-source model does not consider the rupture directivity effect. Consequently, strong pulses were not reproduced enough at stations northeast of Subevent 3 such as KMM004, where the effect of rupture directivity was significant, while the amplitude was well reproduced at most of the other stations. This result indicates the necessity for improving the pseudo point-source model, by introducing azimuth-dependent corner frequency for example, so that it can incorporate the effect of rupture directivity.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Importance of model parameterization in finite fault inversions: Application to the 1974 Mw 8.0 Peru Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, Stephen; Langer, Charley

1993-01-01

The spatial and temporal slip distributions for the October 3, 1974 (Mw = 8.0), Peru subduction zone earthquake and its largest aftershock on November 9 (Ms = 7.1) are calculated and analyzed in terms of the inversion parameterization and tectonic significance. Teleseismic, long-period World-Wide Standard Seismograph Network, P and SH waveforms are inverted to obtain the rupture histories. We demonstrate that erroneous results are obtained if a parameterization is used that does not allow for a sufficiently complex source, involving spatial variation in slip amplitude, risetime, and rupture time. The inversion method utilizes a parameterization of the fault that allows for a discretized source risetime and rupture time. Well-located aftershocks recorded on a local network have the same general pattern as teleseismically determined hypocenters and help to constrain the geometry of the subduction zone. For the main shock a hinged fault is preferred having a shallow plane with a dip of 11° and a deeper, landward plane with a dip of 30°. The preferred nucleation depth lies between 11 and 15 km. A bilateral rupture is obtained with two major concentrations of slip, one 60 to 70 km to the northwest of the epicenter and a second 80 to 100 km to the south and southeast of the epicenter. For these source regions, risetimes vary from 6 to 18 s. Our estimates of risetimes are consistent with the time for the rupture to traverse the dominant local asperity. The slip distribution for the November 9 aftershock falls within a conspicuous hole in the main shock rupture pattern, near the hypocenter of the main shock. The November 9 event has a simple risetime function with a duration of 2 s. Aftershocks recorded by the local network are shown to cluster near the hypocenter of the impending November 9 event and downdip from the largest main shock source region. Slip during the main shock is concentrated at shallow depths above 15 km and extends updip from the hypocenter to near the plate boundary at the trench axis. The large amount of slip at shallow depths is attributed to the absence of any significant accretionary wedge of sediments, and the relatively young age and high convergence rate of the subducted plate, which results in good seismic coupling near the trench axis.

Site-to-Source Finite Fault Distance Probability Distribution in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and the Relationship Between Minimum Distances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, R.; Gutierrez, E.; Carciumaru, D. D.; Huesca-Perez, E.

2017-12-01

We present a method to compute the conditional and no-conditional probability density function (PDF) of the finite fault distance distribution (FFDD). Two cases are described: lines and areas. The case of lines has a simple analytical solution while, in the case of areas, the geometrical probability of a fault based on the strike, dip, and fault segment vertices is obtained using the projection of spheres in a piecewise rectangular surface. The cumulative distribution is computed by measuring the projection of a sphere of radius r in an effective area using an algorithm that estimates the area of a circle within a rectangle. In addition, we introduce the finite fault distance metrics. This distance is the distance where the maximum stress release occurs within the fault plane and generates a peak ground motion. Later, we can apply the appropriate ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) for PSHA. The conditional probability of distance given magnitude is also presented using different scaling laws. A simple model of constant distribution of the centroid at the geometrical mean is discussed, in this model hazard is reduced at the edges because the effective size is reduced. Nowadays there is a trend of using extended source distances in PSHA, however it is not possible to separate the fault geometry from the GMPE. With this new approach, it is possible to add fault rupture models separating geometrical and propagation effects.

Seafloor Deformation and Localized Source Mechanisms of the 2011 M9 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masterlark, T.; Grilli, S. T.; Tappin, D. R.; Kirby, J. T.

2012-12-01

The 2011 M9 Tohoku Earthquake (TE) ruptured the interface separating the Pacific and Okhotsk Plates. This rupture was about hundred kilometers in the along-strike direction and 200 kilometers in the down-dip direction. The TE was primarily thrust having substantial slip along the up-dip portion of the rupture, near the Japan Trench. The regional-scale seafloor deformation from the TE triggered a tsunami with run-ups of a few tens of meters that caused extensive damage along the east coast of Tohoku, Japan. We construct finite element models (FEMs) to simulate the deformation caused by a distribution of coseismic slip along the curved rupture surface of the TE. The FEMs include a distribution of material properties that accounts for the subduction zone structure -a weak forearc, volcanic arc, and backarc basin of the overriding Okhotsk Plate overriding the relatively strong subducting slab that is capped by basaltic oceanic crust. The coseismic rupture is simulated as a distribution of elastic dislocations along the interface separating the forearc of the overriding plate and the oceanic crust of the subducting slab. The slip distribution is calibrated to both onshore and offshore geodetic data, using linear least-squares inverse methods with FEM-generated Greens Functions and second order regularization. The regularization is imposed with a conductance matrix, constructed using Galerkin's Method to account for the curvilinear relationships among the dislocating node pairs. The estimated slip distribution is generally characterized as a few tens of meters of slip over the entire rupture, with greater slip magnitudes (>50 meters) concentrated up-dip and near the Japan Trench. The offshore geodetic data provide critical constraints for the location of the polarity reversal of predicted seafloor vertical deformation. Wave models excited by the predicted regional-scale seafloor deformation generally well predict observed tsunami run-ups and the vertical displacement magnitudes of low frequency waves of coastal GPS buoys. However, coastal areas near Sanriku, Japan experienced anomalously high run-ups of 40 meters and local offshore GPS buoys indicate high frequency waveforms that are incompatible with the coseismic seafloor deformation of the TE. These observations require a localized deformation source near the Japan Trench and just to the north of the TE rupture zone, which models solely based on tsunami waveform inversion predict. Others suggest that a submarine mass failure at this location, presumably triggered by the TE, can excite such waveforms. In this study, we investigate an alternative hypothesis that localized splay faulting, also presumably triggered by the TE, can excite the anomalous waveforms. To do so, we will estimate plausible suites of splay fault and slip parameters that can account for the anomalously high magnitude and high frequency tsunami waves sourced from a localized area near the Japan Trench and north of the TE rupture.

An Experimental and Numerical Comparison of the Rupture Locations of an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

PubMed Central

Doyle, Barry J.; Corbett, Timothy J.; Callanan, Anthony; Walsh, Michael T.; Vorp, David A.; McGloughlin, Timothy M.

2009-01-01

Purpose: To identify the rupture locations of idealized physical models of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) using an in-vitro setup and to compare the findings to those predicted numerically. Methods: Five idealized AAAs were manufactured using Sylgard 184 silicone rubber, which had been mechanically characterized from tensile tests, tear tests, and finite element analysis. The models were then inflated to the point of rupture and recorded using a high-speed camera. Numerical modeling attempted to confirm these rupture locations. Regional variations in wall thickness of the silicone models was also quantified and applied to numerical models. Results: Four of the 5 models tested ruptured at inflection points in the proximal and distal regions of the aneurysm sac and not at regions of maximum diameter. These findings agree with high stress regions computed numerically. Wall stress appears to be independent of wall thickness, with high stress occurring at regions of inflection regardless of wall thickness variations. Conclusion: According to these experimental and numerical findings, AAAs experience higher stresses at regions of inflection compared to regions of maximum diameter. Ruptures of the idealized silicone models occurred predominantly at the inflection points, as numerically predicted. Regions of inflection can be easily identified from basic 3-dimensional reconstruction; as ruptures appear to occur at inflection points, these findings may provide a useful insight into the clinical significance of inflection regions. This approach will be applied to patient-specific models in a future study. PMID:19642790

Persistent rupture terminations at a restraining bend from slip rates on the eastern Altyn Tagh fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, A. J.; Oskin, M. E.; Liu-zeng, J.; Shao, Y.-X.

2018-05-01

Restraining double-bends along strike-slip faults inhibit or permit throughgoing ruptures depending on bend angle, length, and prior rupture history. Modeling predicts that for mature strike-slip faults in a regional stress regime characterized by simple shear, a restraining bend of >18° and >4 km length impedes propagating rupture. Indeed, natural evidence shows that the most recent rupture(s) of the Xorkoli section (90°-93°E) of the eastern Altyn Tagh fault (ATF) ended at large restraining bends. However, when multiple seismic cycles are considered in numerical dynamic rupture modeling, heterogeneous residual stresses enable some ruptures to propagate further, modulating whether the bends persistently serve as barriers. These models remain to be tested using observations of the cumulative effects of multiple earthquake ruptures. Here we investigate whether a large restraining double-bend on the ATF serves consistently as a barrier to rupture by measuring long-term slip rates around the terminus of its most recent surface rupture at the Aksay bend. Our results show a W-E decline in slip as the SATF enters the bend, as would be predicted from repeated rupture terminations there. Prior work demonstrated no Holocene slip on the central, most misoriented portion of the bend, while 19-79 m offsets suggest that multiple ruptures have occurred on the west side of the bend during the Holocene. Thus we conclude the gradient in the SATF's slip rate results from the repeated termination of earthquake ruptures there. However, a finite slip rate east of the bend represents the transmission of some slip, suggesting that a small fraction of ruptures may fully traverse or jump the double-bend. This agreement between natural observations of slip accumulation and multi-cycle models of fault rupture enables us to translate observed slip rates into insight about the dynamic rupture process of individual earthquakes as they encounter geometric complexities along faults.

The effects of core-reflected waves on finite fault inversion with teleseismic body wave data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Ni, S.; Wei, S.

2016-12-01

Reliable estimation of rupture processes for a large earthquake is valuable for post-seismic rescue, tsunami alert, seismotectonic studies, as well as earthquake physics. Finite-fault inversion has been widely accepted to reconstruct the spatial-temporal distribution of rupture processes, which can be obtained by individual or jointly inversion of seismic, geodetic and tsunami data sets. Among the above observations, teleseismic (30° 90°) body waves, usually P and SH waves, have been used extensively in such inversions because their propagation are well understood and readily available for large earthquakes with good coverages of slowness and azimuth. However, finite fault inversion methods usually assume turning P and SH waves without inclusion of core-reflected waves when calculating the synthetic waveforms, which may result in systematic error in finite-fault inversions. For the core-reflected SH wave ScS, it is expected to be strong due to total reflection from Core-Mantle-Boundary. Moreover, the time interval between direct S and ScS could be smaller than the duration of large earthquakes for large epicentral distances. In order to improve the accuracy of finite fault inversion with teleseismic body waves, we develop a procedure named multitel3 to compute Greens' functions that contain both turning waves (P, pP, sP, S, sS et al.) and core-reflected phases (PcP and ScS) and apply it to finite fault inversions. This ray-based method can rapidly calculate teleseismic body wave synthetics with flexibility for path calibration of 3D mantle structure. The new Green's function is plugged into finite fault inversion package to replace the original Green's function with only turning P and SH waves. With the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake as example, a series of numerical tests conducted on synthetic data are used to assess the performance of our approach. We also explore this new procedure's stability when there are discrepancies between the parameters of input model and the priori information of inverse model, such as strike, dip of finite fault and so on. With the quantified code, we apply it to study rupture process of the 2016 Mw7.8 Sumatra earthquake.

Tsunami Modeling of Hikurangi Trench M9 Events: Case Study for Napier, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. R.; Nyst, M.; Farahani, R.; Bryngelson, J.; Lee, R.; Molas, G.

2015-12-01

RMS has developed a tsunami model for New Zealand for the insurance industry to price and to manage their tsunami risks. A key tsunamigenic source for New Zealand is the Hikurangi Trench that lies offshore on the eastside of the North Island. The trench is the result of the subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the North Island at a rate of 40-45 mm/yr. Though there have been no M9 historical events on the Hikurangi Trench, events in this magnitude range are considered in the latest version of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2012). The RMS modeling approaches the tsunami lifecycle in three stages: event generation, ocean wave propagation, and coastal inundation. The tsunami event generation is modeled based on seafloor deformation resulting from an event rupture model. The ocean wave propagation and coastal inundation are modeled using a RMS-developed numerical solver, implemented on graphic processing units using a finite-volume approach to approximate two-dimensional, shallow-water wave equations over the ocean and complex topography. As the tsunami waves enter shallow water and approach the coast, the RMS model calculates the propagation of the waves along the wet-dry interface considering variable land friction. The initiation and characteristics of the tsunami are based on the event rupture model. As there have been no historical M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench, this rupture characterization posed unique challenges. This study examined the impacts of a suite of event rupture models to understand the key drivers in the variations in the tsunami inundation footprints. The goal was to develop a suite of tsunamigenic event characterizations that represent a range of potential tsunami outcomes for M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench. The focus of this case study is the Napier region as it represents an important exposure concentration in the region and has experience tsunami inundations in the past including during the 1931 Ms7.8 Hawkes Bay Earthquake.

Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gülerce, Zeynep; Buğra Soyman, Kadir; Güner, Barış; Kaymakci, Nuretdin

2017-12-01

This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Page, M.; Mai, P.M.; Schorlemmer, D.

2011-01-01

Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting earthquake source models quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an earthquake and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source models are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of earthquake source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other earthquakerelated computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.

Source inversion analysis of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using Green's functions calculated from a 3-D heterogeneous structure model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, W.; Aoi, S.; Maeda, T.; Sekiguchi, H.; Kunugi, T.

2013-12-01

Source inversion analysis using near-source strong-motion records with an assumption of 1-D underground structure models has revealed the overall characteristics of the rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki mega-thrust earthquake. This assumption for the structure model is acceptable because the seismic waves radiated during the Tohoku-Oki event were rich in the very-low-frequency contents lower than 0.05 Hz, which are less affected by the small-scale heterogeneous structure. The analysis using more reliable Green's functions even in the higher-frequency range considering complex structure of the subduction zone will illuminate more detailed rupture process in space and time and the transition of the frequency dependence of the wave radiation for the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In this study, we calculate the near-source Green's functions using a 3-D underground structure model and perform the source inversion analysis using them. The 3-D underground structure model used in this study is the Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model (Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, 2012). A curved fault model on the Pacific plate interface is discretized into 287 subfaults at ~20 km interval. The Green's functions are calculated using GMS (Aoi et al., 2004), which is a simulation program package for the seismic wave field by the finite difference method using discontinuous grids (Aoi and Fujiwara, 1999). Computational region is 136-146.2E in longitude, 34-41.6N in latitude, and 0-100 km in depth. The horizontal and vertical grid intervals are 200 m and 100 m, respectively, for the shallower region and those for the deeper region are tripled. The number of the total grids is 2.1 billion. We derive 300-s records by calculating 36,000 steps with a time interval of 0.0083 second (120 Hz sampling). It takes nearly one hour to compute one case using 48 Graphics Processing Units (GPU) on TSUBAME2.0 supercomputer owned by Tokyo Institute of Technology. In total, 574 cases are calculated to derive the Green's functions for two basis slip angles from each subfault. A preliminary inversion result using the same frequency band and strong-motion stations as those for our previous studies (Suzuki et al., 2011; 2013) shows that, in addition to a large slip in the shallower area, a slip in the deeper part is relatively larger than the previous result, for the off Miyagi region. Characteristics of the temporal rupture progression are consistent with the previous studies. Our further study will consider the rupture propagation inside subfault, which would more appropriately evaluate the slip amount of the deeper area related to the rupture propagating landward. Improvement of waveform alignment is also necessary to reduce the influence of the discrepancy and uncertainty of the underground structure models used for the hypocenter determination and Green's function calculation. Acknowledgements: This research is partially supported by "Joint Usage/Research Center for Interdisciplinary Large-scale Information Infrastructures" and "High Performance Computing Infrastructure" in Japan.

Recent updates in developing a statistical pseudo-dynamic source-modeling framework to capture the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Seok Goo; Kwak, Sangmin; Lee, Kyungbook; Park, Donghee

2017-04-01

It is a critical element to predict the intensity and variability of strong ground motions in seismic hazard assessment. The characteristics and variability of earthquake rupture process may be a dominant factor in determining the intensity and variability of near-source strong ground motions. Song et al. (2014) demonstrated that the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios could be effectively quantified in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters, constrained by rupture dynamics and past events. The developed pseudo-dynamic source modeling schemes were also validated against the recorded ground motion data of past events and empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at the broadband platform (BBP) developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Recently we improved the computational efficiency of the developed pseudo-dynamic source-modeling scheme by adopting the nonparametric co-regionalization algorithm, introduced and applied in geostatistics initially. We also investigated the effect of earthquake rupture process on near-source ground motion characteristics in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics, particularly focusing on the forward directivity region. Finally we will discuss whether the pseudo-dynamic source modeling can reproduce the variability (standard deviation) of empirical GMPEs and the efficiency of 1-point and 2-point statistics to address the variability of ground motions.

Multi-scale Slip Inversion Based on Simultaneous Spatial and Temporal Domain Wavelet Transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W.; Yao, H.; Yang, H. Y.

2017-12-01

Finite fault inversion is a widely used method to study earthquake rupture processes. Some previous studies have proposed different methods to implement finite fault inversion, including time-domain, frequency-domain, and wavelet-domain methods. Many previous studies have found that different frequency bands show different characteristics of the seismic rupture (e.g., Wang and Mori, 2011; Yao et al., 2011, 2013; Uchide et al., 2013; Yin et al., 2017). Generally, lower frequency waveforms correspond to larger-scale rupture characteristics while higher frequency data are representative of smaller-scale ones. Therefore, multi-scale analysis can help us understand the earthquake rupture process thoroughly from larger scale to smaller scale. By the use of wavelet transform, the wavelet-domain methods can analyze both the time and frequency information of signals in different scales. Traditional wavelet-domain methods (e.g., Ji et al., 2002) implement finite fault inversion with both lower and higher frequency signals together to recover larger-scale and smaller-scale characteristics of the rupture process simultaneously. Here we propose an alternative strategy with a two-step procedure, i.e., firstly constraining the larger-scale characteristics with lower frequency signals, and then resolving the smaller-scale ones with higher frequency signals. We have designed some synthetic tests to testify our strategy and compare it with the traditional one. We also have applied our strategy to study the 2015 Gorkha Nepal earthquake using tele-seismic waveforms. Both the traditional method and our two-step strategy only analyze the data in different temporal scales (i.e., different frequency bands), while the spatial distribution of model parameters also shows multi-scale characteristics. A more sophisticated strategy is to transfer the slip model into different spatial scales, and then analyze the smooth slip distribution (larger scales) with lower frequency data firstly and more detailed slip distribution (smaller scales) with higher frequency data subsequently. We are now implementing the slip inversion using both spatial and temporal domain wavelets. This multi-scale analysis can help us better understand frequency-dependent rupture characteristics of large earthquakes.

Numerical simulation of the 1976 Ms7.8 Tangshan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhengbo; Chen, Xiaofei

2017-04-01

An Ms 7.8 earthquake happened in Tangshan in 1976, causing more than 240000 people death and almost destroying the whole city. Numerous studies indicated that the surface rupture zone extends 8 to 11 km in the south of Tangshan City. The fault system is composed with more than ten NE-trending right-lateral strike-slip left-stepping echelon faults, with a general strike direction of N30°E. However, recent scholars proposed that the surface ruptures appeared in a larger area. To simulate the rupture process closer to the real situation, the curvilinear grid finite difference method presented by Zhang et al. (2006, 2014) which can handle the free surface and the complex geometry were implemented to investigate the dynamic rupture and ground motion of Tangshan earthquake. With the data from field survey, seismic section, borehole and trenching results given by different studies, several fault geometry models were established. The intensity, the seismic waveform and the displacement resulted from the simulation of different models were compared with the observed data. The comparison of these models shows details of the rupture process of the Tangshan earthquake and implies super-shear may occur during the rupture, which is important for better understanding of this complicated rupture process and seismic hazard distributions of this earthquake.

Signatures of the seismic source in EMD-based characterization of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake recordings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, R.R.; Ma, S.; Hartzell, S.

2003-01-01

In this article we use empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to characterize the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake records and investigate the signatures carried over from the source rupture process. Comparison of the current study results with existing source inverse solutions that use traditional data processing suggests that the EMD-based characterization contains information that sheds light on aspects of the earthquake rupture process. We first summarize the fundamentals of the EMD and illustrate its features through the analysis of a hypothetical and a real record. Typically, the Northridge strong-motion records are decomposed into eight or nine intrinsic mode functions (IMF's), each of which emphasizes a different oscillation mode with different amplitude and frequency content. The first IMF has the highest-frequency content; frequency content decreases with an increase in IMF component. With the aid of a finite-fault inversion method, we then examine aspects of the source of the 1994 Northridge earthquake that are reflected in the second to fifth IMF components. This study shows that the second IMF is predominantly wave motion generated near the hypocenter, with high-frequency content that might be related to a large stress drop associated with the initiation of the earthquake. As one progresses from the second to the fifth IMF component, there is a general migration of the source region away from the hypocenter with associated longer-period signals as the rupture propagates. This study suggests that the different IMF components carry information on the earthquake rupture process that is expressed in their different frequency bands.

Quantifying and Qualifying USGS ShakeMap Uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, David J.; Lin, Kuo-Wan; Quitoriano, Vincent

2008-01-01

We describe algorithms for quantifying and qualifying uncertainties associated with USGS ShakeMap ground motions. The uncertainty values computed consist of latitude/longitude grid-based multiplicative factors that scale the standard deviation associated with the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) used within the ShakeMap algorithm for estimating ground motions. The resulting grid-based 'uncertainty map' is essential for evaluation of losses derived using ShakeMaps as the hazard input. For ShakeMap, ground motion uncertainty at any point is dominated by two main factors: (i) the influence of any proximal ground motion observations, and (ii) the uncertainty of estimating ground motions from the GMPE, most notably, elevated uncertainty due to initial, unconstrained source rupture geometry. The uncertainty is highest for larger magnitude earthquakes when source finiteness is not yet constrained and, hence, the distance to rupture is also uncertain. In addition to a spatially-dependant, quantitative assessment, many users may prefer a simple, qualitative grading for the entire ShakeMap. We developed a grading scale that allows one to quickly gauge the appropriate level of confidence when using rapidly produced ShakeMaps as part of the post-earthquake decision-making process or for qualitative assessments of archived or historical earthquake ShakeMaps. We describe an uncertainty letter grading ('A' through 'F', for high to poor quality, respectively) based on the uncertainty map. A middle-range ('C') grade corresponds to a ShakeMap for a moderate-magnitude earthquake suitably represented with a point-source location. Lower grades 'D' and 'F' are assigned for larger events (M>6) where finite-source dimensions are not yet constrained. The addition of ground motion observations (or observed macroseismic intensities) reduces uncertainties over data-constrained portions of the map. Higher grades ('A' and 'B') correspond to ShakeMaps with constrained fault dimensions and numerous stations, depending on the density of station/data coverage. Due to these dependencies, the letter grade can change with subsequent ShakeMap revisions if more data are added or when finite-faulting dimensions are added. We emphasize that the greatest uncertainties are associated with unconstrained source dimensions for large earthquakes where the distance term in the GMPE is most uncertain; this uncertainty thus scales with magnitude (and consequently rupture dimension). Since this distance uncertainty produces potentially large uncertainties in ShakeMap ground-motion estimates, this factor dominates over compensating constraints for all but the most dense station distributions.

New constraints on the rupture process of the 1999 August 17 Izmit earthquake deduced from estimates of stress glut rate moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clévédé, E.; Bouin, M.-P.; Bukchin, B.; Mostinskiy, A.; Patau, G.

2004-12-01

This paper illustrates the use of integral estimates given by the stress glut rate moments of total degree 2 for constraining the rupture scenario of a large earthquake in the particular case of the 1999 Izmit mainshock. We determine the integral estimates of the geometry, source duration and rupture propagation given by the stress glut rate moments of total degree 2 by inverting long-period surface wave (LPSW) amplitude spectra. Kinematic and static models of the Izmit earthquake published in the literature are quite different from one another. In order to extract the characteristic features of this event, we calculate the same integral estimates directly from those models and compare them with those deduced from our inversion. While the equivalent rupture zone and the eastward directivity are consistent among all models, the LPSW solution displays a strong unilateral character of the rupture associated with a short rupture duration that is not compatible with the solutions deduced from the published models. With the aim of understand this discrepancy, we use simple equivalent kinematic models to reproduce the integral estimates of the considered rupture processes (including ours) by adjusting a few free parameters controlling the western and eastern parts of the rupture. We show that the joint analysis of the LPSW solution and source tomographies allows us to elucidate the scattering of source processes published for this earthquake and to discriminate between the models. Our results strongly suggest that (1) there was significant moment released on the eastern segment of the activated fault system during the Izmit earthquake; (2) the apparent rupture velocity decreases on this segment.

The 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake Revealed by Kinematic Source Inversion and Seismic Wavefield Simulations: Slow Rupture Propagation on a Geometrically Complex Crustal Fault Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, C.; Kaneko, Y.; D'Anastasio, E.; Benites, R.; Fry, B.; Hamling, I. J.

2017-11-01

The 2016 Kaikōura (New Zealand) earthquake generated large ground motions and resulted in multiple onshore and offshore fault ruptures, a profusion of triggered landslides, and a regional tsunami. Here we examine the rupture evolution using two kinematic modeling techniques based on analysis of local strong-motion and high-rate GPS data. Our kinematic models capture a complex pattern of slowly (Vr < 2 km/s) propagating rupture from south to north, with over half of the moment release occurring in the northern source region, mostly on the Kekerengu fault, 60 s after the origin time. Both models indicate rupture reactivation on the Kekerengu fault with the time separation of 11 s between the start of the original failure and start of the subsequent one. We further conclude that most near-source waveforms can be explained by slip on the crustal faults, with little (<8%) or no contribution from the subduction interface.

Computational simulation of the creep-rupture process in filamentary composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slattery, Kerry T.; Hackett, Robert M.

1991-01-01

A computational simulation of the internal damage accumulation which causes the creep-rupture phenomenon in filamentary composite materials is developed. The creep-rupture process involves complex interactions between several damage mechanisms. A statistically-based computational simulation using a time-differencing approach is employed to model these progressive interactions. The finite element method is used to calculate the internal stresses. The fibers are modeled as a series of bar elements which are connected transversely by matrix elements. Flaws are distributed randomly throughout the elements in the model. Load is applied, and the properties of the individual elements are updated at the end of each time step as a function of the stress history. The simulation is continued until failure occurs. Several cases, with different initial flaw dispersions, are run to establish a statistical distribution of the time-to-failure. The calculations are performed on a supercomputer. The simulation results compare favorably with the results of creep-rupture experiments conducted at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Estimation of source processes of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes from strong motion waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubo, H.; Suzuki, W.; Aoi, S.; Sekiguchi, H.

2016-12-01

In this study, we estimated the source processes for two large events of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes (the M7.3 event at 1:25 JST on April 16, 2016 and the M6.5 event at 21:26 JST on April 14, 2016) from strong motion waveforms using multiple-time-window linear waveform inversion (Hartzell and Heaton 1983; Sekiguchi et al. 2000). Based on the observations of surface ruptures, the spatial distribution of aftershocks, and the geodetic data, a realistic curved fault model was developed for the source-process analysis of the M7.3 event. The source model obtained for the M7.3 event with a seismic moment of 5.5 × 1019 Nm (Mw 7.1) had two significant ruptures. One rupture propagated toward the northeastern shallow region at 4 s after rupture initiation, and continued with large slips to approximately 16 s. This rupture caused a large slip region with a peak slip of 3.8 m that was located 10-30 km northeast of the hypocenter and reached the caldera of Mt. Aso. The contribution of the large slip region to the seismic waveforms was large at many stations. Another rupture propagated toward the surface from the hypocenter at 2-6 s, and then propagated toward the northeast along the near surface at 6-10 s. This rupture largely contributed to the seismic waveforms at the stations south of the fault and close to the hypocenter. A comparison with the results obtained using a single fault plane model demonstrate that the use of the curved fault model led to improved waveform fit at the stations south of the fault. The extent of the large near-surface slips in this source model for the M7.3 event is roughly consistent with the extent of the observed large surface ruptures. The source model obtained for the M6.5 event with a seismic moment of 1.7 × 1018 Nm (Mw 6.1) had large slips in the region around the hypocenter and in the shallow region north-northeast of the hypocenter, both of which had a maximum slip of 0.7 m. The rupture of the M6.5 event propagated from the former region to the latter region at 1-6 s after rupture initiation, which is expected to have caused the strong ground motions due to the forward directivity effect at KMMH16 and surroundings. The occurrence of the near-surface large slips in this source model for the M6.5 event is consistent with the appearance of small surface cracks, which were observed by some residents.

Source modeling and inversion with near real-time GPS: a GITEWS perspective for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babeyko, A. Y.; Hoechner, A.; Sobolev, S. V.

2010-07-01

We present the GITEWS approach to source modeling for the tsunami early warning in Indonesia. Near-field tsunami implies special requirements to both warning time and details of source characterization. To meet these requirements, we employ geophysical and geological information to predefine a maximum number of rupture parameters. We discretize the tsunamigenic Sunda plate interface into an ordered grid of patches (150×25) and employ the concept of Green's functions for forward and inverse rupture modeling. Rupture Generator, a forward modeling tool, additionally employs different scaling laws and slip shape functions to construct physically reasonable source models using basic seismic information only (magnitude and epicenter location). GITEWS runs a library of semi- and fully-synthetic scenarios to be extensively employed by system testing as well as by warning center personnel teaching and training. Near real-time GPS observations are a very valuable complement to the local tsunami warning system. Their inversion provides quick (within a few minutes on an event) estimation of the earthquake magnitude, rupture position and, in case of sufficient station coverage, details of slip distribution.

A statistical kinematic source inversion approach based on the QUESO library for uncertainty quantification and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielke, Olaf; McDougall, Damon; Mai, Martin; Babuska, Ivo

2014-05-01

Seismic, often augmented with geodetic data, are frequently used to invert for the spatio-temporal evolution of slip along a rupture plane. The resulting images of the slip evolution for a single event, inferred by different research teams, often vary distinctly, depending on the adopted inversion approach and rupture model parameterization. This observation raises the question, which of the provided kinematic source inversion solutions is most reliable and most robust, and — more generally — how accurate are fault parameterization and solution predictions? These issues are not included in "standard" source inversion approaches. Here, we present a statistical inversion approach to constrain kinematic rupture parameters from teleseismic body waves. The approach is based a) on a forward-modeling scheme that computes synthetic (body-)waves for a given kinematic rupture model, and b) on the QUESO (Quantification of Uncertainty for Estimation, Simulation, and Optimization) library that uses MCMC algorithms and Bayes theorem for sample selection. We present Bayesian inversions for rupture parameters in synthetic earthquakes (i.e. for which the exact rupture history is known) in an attempt to identify the cross-over at which further model discretization (spatial and temporal resolution of the parameter space) is no longer attributed to a decreasing misfit. Identification of this cross-over is of importance as it reveals the resolution power of the studied data set (i.e. teleseismic body waves), enabling one to constrain kinematic earthquake rupture histories of real earthquakes at a resolution that is supported by data. In addition, the Bayesian approach allows for mapping complete posterior probability density functions of the desired kinematic source parameters, thus enabling us to rigorously assess the uncertainties in earthquake source inversions.

Generation of the September 29, 2009 Samoa Tsunami: Examination of a Possible Non-Double Couple Component (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, E. L.; Kirby, S. H.; Ross, S.; Dartnell, P.

2009-12-01

A non-double couple component associated with the Mw=8.0 September 29, 2009 Samoa earthquake is investigated to explain direct tsunami arrivals at deep-ocean pressure sensors (i.e., DART stations). In particular, we seek a tsunami generation model that correctly predicts the polarity of first motions: negative at the Apia station (#51425) NW of the epicenter and positive at the Tonga (#51426) and Aukland (#54401) stations south of the epicenter. Slip on a single, finite fault corresponding to either nodal plane of the best-fitting double couple fails to predict the positive first-motion polarity observed at the southerly (Tonga and Aukland) DART stations. The Samoa earthquake has a significant non-double component as measured by the compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) ratio that ranges from |ɛ|=0.15 (USGS CMT) to |ɛ| =0.37 (Global CMT). To test what effect the non-double component has on tsunami generation, the static elastic displacement field at the sea floor is computed from the full moment tensor. This displacement field represents the initial conditions for tsunami propagation computed using a finite-difference approximation to the linear shallow-water wave equations. The tsunami waveforms calculated from the full moment tensor are consistent with the observed polarities at all of the DART stations. The static displacement field is then decomposed into double-couple and non-double couple components to determine the relative contribution of each to the tsunami wavefield. Although a point-source approximation to the tsunami source is typically inadequate at near-field and regional distances, finite-fault inversions of the 2009 Samoa earthquake indicate that peak slip is spatially concentrated near the hypocenter, suggesting that the point-source representation may be acceptable in this case. Generation of the 2009 Samoa tsunami may involve earthquake rupture on multiple faults and/or along curved faults, both of which are observed from multibeam bathymetry in the epicentral region. The exact rupture path of the earthquake is presently unclear. It is evident from seismological and tsunami observations of the 2009 Samoa event, however, that uniform slip on a single, planar fault cannot explain all aspects of the observed tsunami wavefield.

GPS measurements and finite element modeling of the earthquake cycle along the Middle America subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correa Mora, Francisco

We model surface deformation recorded by GPS stations along the Pacific coasts of Mexico and Central America to estimate the magnitude of and variations in frictional locking (coupling) along the subduction interface, toward a better understanding of seismic hazard in these earthquake-prone regions. The first chapter describes my primary analysis technique, namely 3-dimensional finite element modeling to simulate subduction and bounded-variable inversions that optimize the fit to the GPS velocity field. This chapter focuses on and describes interseismic coupling of the Oaxaca segment of the Mexican subduction zone and introduces an analysis of transient slip events that occur in this region. Our results indicate that coupling is strong within the rupture zone of the 1978 Ms=7.8 Oaxaca earthquake, making this region a potential source of a future large earthquake. However, we also find evidence for significant variations in coupling on the subduction interface over distances of only tens of kilometers, decreasing toward the outer edges of the 1978 rupture zone. In the second chapter, we study in more detail some of the slow slip events that have been recorded over a broad area of southern Mexico, with emphasis on their space-time behavior. Our modeling indicates that transient deformation beneath southern Mexico is focused in two distinct slip patches mostly located downdip from seismogenic areas beneath Guerrero and Oaxaca. Contrary to conclusions reached in one previous study, we find no evidence for a spatial or temporal correlation between transient slip that occurs in these two widely separated source regions. Finally, chapter three extends the modeling techniques to new GPS data in Central America, where subduction coupling is weak or zero and the upper plate deformation is much more complex than in Mexico. Cocos-Caribbean plate convergence beneath El Salvador and Nicaragua is accompanied by subduction and trench-parallel motion of the forearc. Our GPS velocity field is best fit by a model with strongly locked faults in the volcanic arc and a weakly coupled subduction interface. In this region, seismic hazards associated with subduction are therefore low, but are high for crustal faults, in agreement with records of historic seismicity.

Slip history and dynamic implications of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ji, C.; Helmberger, D.V.; Wald, D.J.; Ma, K.-F.

2003-01-01

We investigate the rupture process of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake using extensive near-source observations, including three-component velocity waveforms at 36 strong motion stations and 119 GPS measurements. A three-plane fault geometry derived from our previous inversion using only static data [Ji et al., 2001] is applied. The slip amplitude, rake angle, rupture initiation time, and risetime function are inverted simultaneously with a recently developed finite fault inverse method that combines a wavelet transform approach with a simulated annealing algorithm [Ji et al., 2002b]. The inversion results are validated by the forward prediction of an independent data set, the teleseismic P and SH ground velocities, with notable agreement. The results show that the total seismic moment release of this earthquake is 2.7 ?? 1020 N m and that most of the slip occured in a triangular-shaped asperity involving two fault segments, which is consistent with our previous static inversion. The rupture front propagates with an average rupture velocity of ???2.0 km s-1, and the average slip duration (risetime) is 7.2 s. Several interesting observations related to the temporal evolution of the Chi-Chi earthquake are also investigated, including (1) the strong effect of the sinuous fault plane of the Chelungpu fault on spatial and temporal variations in slip history, (2) the intersection of fault 1 and fault 2 not being a strong impediment to the rupture propagation, and (3 the observation that the peak slip velocity near the surface is, in general, higher than on the deeper portion of the fault plane, as predicted by dynamic modeling.

Large Subduction Earthquake Simulations using Finite Source Modeling and the Offshore-Onshore Ambient Seismic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viens, L.; Miyake, H.; Koketsu, K.

2016-12-01

Large subduction earthquakes have the potential to generate strong long-period ground motions. The ambient seismic field, also called seismic noise, contains information about the elastic response of the Earth between two seismic stations that can be retrieved using seismic interferometry. The DONET1 network, which is composed of 20 offshore stations, has been deployed atop the Nankai subduction zone, Japan, to continuously monitor the seismotectonic activity in this highly seismically active region. The surrounding onshore area is covered by hundreds of seismic stations, which are operated the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), with a spacing of 15-20 km. We retrieve offshore-onshore Green's functions from the ambient seismic field using the deconvolution technique and use them to simulate the long-period ground motions of moderate subduction earthquakes that occurred at shallow depth. We extend the point source method, which is appropriate for moderate events, to finite source modeling to simulate the long-period ground motions of large Mw 7 class earthquake scenarios. The source models are constructed using scaling relations between moderate and large earthquakes to discretize the fault plane of the large hypothetical events into subfaults. Offshore-onshore Green's functions are spatially interpolated over the fault plane to obtain one Green's function for each subfault. The interpolated Green's functions are finally summed up considering different rupture velocities. Results show that this technique can provide additional information about earthquake ground motions that can be used with the existing physics-based simulations to improve seismic hazard assessment.

Kinematic and Dynamic Source Rupture Scenario for Potential Megathrust Event along the Southernmost Ryukyu Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, T. C.; Hu, F.; Chen, X.; Lee, S. J.; Hung, S. H.

2017-12-01

Kinematic source model is widely used for the simulation of an earthquake, because of its simplicity and ease of application. On the other hand, dynamic source model is a more complex but important tool that can help us to understand the physics of earthquake initiation, propagation, and healing. In this study, we focus on the southernmost Ryukyu Trench which is extremely close to northern Taiwan. Interseismic GPS data in northeast Taiwan shows a pattern of strain accumulation, which suggests the maximum magnitude of a potential future earthquake in this area is probably about magnitude 8.7. We develop dynamic rupture models for the hazard estimation of the potential megathrust event based on the kinematic rupture scenarios which are inverted using the interseismic GPS data. Besides, several kinematic source rupture scenarios with different characterized slip patterns are also considered to constrain the dynamic rupture process better. The initial stresses and friction properties are tested using the trial-and-error method, together with the plate coupling and tectonic features. An analysis of the dynamic stress field associated with the slip prescribed in the kinematic models can indicate possible inconsistencies with physics of faulting. Furthermore, the dynamic and kinematic rupture models are considered to simulate the ground shaking from based on 3-D spectral-element method. We analyze ShakeMap and ShakeMovie from the simulation results to evaluate the influence over the island between different source models. A dispersive tsunami-propagation simulation is also carried out to evaluate the maximum tsunami wave height along the coastal areas of Taiwan due to coseismic seafloor deformation of different source models. The results of this numerical simulation study can provide a physically-based information of megathrust earthquake scenario for the emergency response agency to take the appropriate action before the really big one happens.

Slip Distribution of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake obtained by Geodetic and Tsunami Data and with a 3-D Finite Element Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, F.; Trasatti, E.; Lorito, S.; Ito, Y.; Piatanesi, A.; Lanucara, P.; Hirata, K.; D'Agostino, N.; Cocco, M.

2012-12-01

The rupture process of the Great 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake has been particularly well studied by using an unprecedented collection of geophysical data. There is a general agreement among the different source models obtained by modeling seismological, geodetic and tsunami data. A slip patch of nearly 40÷50 meters has been imaged and located around and up-dip from the hypocenter by most of published models, while some differences exist in the slip pattern retrieved at shallow depths near the trench, likely due to the different resolving power of distinct data sets and to the adopted fault geometry. It is well known that the modeling of great subduction earthquakes requires the use of 3-D structural models in order to properly account for the effects of topography, bathymetry and the geometrical variations of the plate interface as well as for the effects of elastic contrasts between the subducting plate and the continental lithosphere. In this study we build a 3-D Finite Element (FE) model of the Tohoku-oki area in order to infer the slip distribution of the 2011 earthquake by performing a joint inversion of geodetic (GPS and seafloor observations) and tsunami (ocean bottom pressure sensors, DART and GPS buoys) data. The FE model is used to compute the geodetic and tsunami Green's functions. In order to understand how geometrical and elastic heterogeneities control the inferred slip distribution of the Tohoku-oki earthquake, we compare the slip patterns obtained using both homogeneous and heterogeneous structural models. The goal of this study is to better constrain the slip distribution and the maximum slip amplitudes. In particular, we aim to focus on the rupture process in the shallower part of the fault plane and near the trench, which is crucial to model the tsunami data and to assess the tsunamigenic potential of earthquakes in this region.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodgers, Arthur J.; Dreger, Douglas S.; Pitarka, Arben

We performed three-dimensional (3D) anelastic ground motion simulations of the South Napa earthquake to investigate the performance of different finite rupture models and the effects of 3D structure on the observed wavefield. We considered rupture models reported by Dreger et al. (2015), Ji et al., (2015), Wei et al. (2015) and Melgar et al. (2015). We used the SW4 anelastic finite difference code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Petersson and Sjogreen, 2013) and distributed by the Computational Infrastructure for Geodynamics. This code can compute the seismic response for fully 3D sub-surface models, including surface topography and linear anelasticity. Wemore » use the 3D geologic/seismic model of the San Francisco Bay Area developed by the United States Geological Survey (Aagaard et al., 2008, 2010). Evaluation of earlier versions of this model indicated that the structure can reproduce main features of observed waveforms from moderate earthquakes (Rodgers et al., 2008; Kim et al., 2010). Simulations were performed for a domain covering local distances (< 25 km) and resolution providing simulated ground motions valid to 1 Hz.« less

Numerical simulation analysis on Wenchuan seismic strong motion in Hanyuan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Gao, M.; Guo, J.; Li, Z.; Li, T.

2015-12-01

69227 deaths, 374643 injured, 17923 people missing, direct economic losses 845.1 billion, and a large number houses collapse were caused by Wenchuan Ms8 earthquake in Sichuan Province on May 12, 2008, how to reproduce characteristics of its strong ground motion and predict its intensity distribution, which have important role to mitigate disaster of similar giant earthquake in the future. Taking Yunnan-Sichuan Province, Wenchuan town, Chengdu city, Chengdu basin and its vicinity as the research area, on the basis of the available three-dimensional velocity structure model and newly topography data results from ChinaArray of Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, 2 type complex source rupture process models with the global and local source parameters are established, we simulated the seismic wave propagation of Wenchuan Ms8 earthquake throughout the whole three-dimensional region by the GMS discrete grid finite-difference techniques with Cerjan absorbing boundary conditions, and obtained the seismic intensity distribution in this region through analyzing 50×50 stations data (simulated ground motion output station). The simulated results indicated that: (1)Simulated Wenchuan earthquake ground motion (PGA) response and the main characteristics of the response spectrum are very similar to those of the real Wenchuan earthquake records. (2)Wenchuan earthquake ground motion (PGA) and the response spectra of the Plain are much greater than that of the left Mountain area because of the low velocity of the shallow surface media and the basin effect of the Chengdu basin structure. Simultaneously, (3) the source rupture process (inversion) with far-field P-wave, GPS data and InSAR information and the Longmenshan Front Fault (source rupture process) are taken into consideration in GMS numerical simulation, significantly different waveform and frequency component of the ground motion are obtained, though the strong motion waveform is distinct asymmetric, which should be much more real. It indicated that the Longmenshan Front Fault may be also involved in seismic activity during the long time(several minutes) Wenchuan earthquake process. (4) Simulated earthquake records in Hanyuan region are indeed very strong, which reveals source mechanism is one reason of Hanyuan intensity abnormaly.

Dynamics of retinal photocoagulation and rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sramek, Christopher; Paulus, Yannis; Nomoto, Hiroyuki; Huie, Phil; Brown, Jefferson; Palanker, Daniel

2009-05-01

In laser retinal photocoagulation, short (<20 ms) pulses have been found to reduce thermal damage to the inner retina, decrease treatment time, and minimize pain. However, the safe therapeutic window (defined as the ratio of power for producing a rupture to that of mild coagulation) decreases with shorter exposures. To quantify the extent of retinal heating and maximize the therapeutic window, a computational model of millisecond retinal photocoagulation and rupture was developed. Optical attenuation of 532-nm laser light in ocular tissues was measured, including retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) pigmentation and cell-size variability. Threshold powers for vaporization and RPE damage were measured with pulse durations ranging from 1 to 200 ms. A finite element model of retinal heating inferred that vaporization (rupture) takes place at 180-190°C. RPE damage was accurately described by the Arrhenius model with activation energy of 340 kJ/mol. Computed photocoagulation lesion width increased logarithmically with pulse duration, in agreement with histological findings. The model will allow for the optimization of beam parameters to increase the width of the therapeutic window for short exposures.

Seismic hazard assessment over time: Modelling earthquakes in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Chung-Han; Wang, Yu; Wang, Yu-Ju; Lee, Ya-Ting

2017-04-01

To assess the seismic hazard with temporal change in Taiwan, we develop a new approach, combining both the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model and the Coulomb stress change, and implement the seismogenic source parameters by the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM). The BPT model was adopted to describe the rupture recurrence intervals of the specific fault sources, together with the time elapsed since the last fault-rupture to derive their long-term rupture probability. We also evaluate the short-term seismicity rate change based on the static Coulomb stress interaction between seismogenic sources. By considering above time-dependent factors, our new combined model suggests an increased long-term seismic hazard in the vicinity of active faults along the western Coastal Plain and the Longitudinal Valley, where active faults have short recurrence intervals and long elapsed time since their last ruptures, and/or short-term elevated hazard levels right after the occurrence of large earthquakes due to the stress triggering effect. The stress enhanced by the February 6th, 2016, Meinong ML 6.6 earthquake also significantly increased rupture probabilities of several neighbouring seismogenic sources in Southwestern Taiwan and raised hazard level in the near future. Our approach draws on the advantage of incorporating long- and short-term models, to provide time-dependent earthquake probability constraints. Our time-dependent model considers more detailed information than any other published models. It thus offers decision-makers and public officials an adequate basis for rapid evaluations of and response to future emergency scenarios such as victim relocation and sheltering.

Finite Element Modelling of the Indo-Gangetic Basin to Study Site Amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivasubramonian, J.; Jaya, D.; Raghukanth, S. T. G.; Mai, P. M.

2017-12-01

We have developed a finite-element model of the 3D velocity structure of the Indo-Gangetic basin (IG basin) to quantify site amplifications due to seismic waves emanated from regional earthquakes. Estimating seismic wave amplifications is difficult in case of limited instrumentation, thus motivating us to propose a new simulation-based approach. The input required for the finite-element model include the spatial coordinates and the material properties (density, P-wave and S-wave velocities, Q factor) of the basin. Recent studies in the basin demarcate sediment layers of varying thickness, reaching down to a depth of 6 km and S-wave velocities ranging from 0.4-2.4 km/s (Srinivas et al., 2013). In the present study, our regional model has dimensions 900 x 900 x 80 km in x, y and z directions, discretized into 320 x 320 x 53 hexahedral elements. The top 6 km of the IG basin is divided into 8 different sediment layers with varying material properties. We use kinematic rupture models for the earthquake sources to simulate past as well as hypothetical future events. Two past earthquakes (Mw4.9, Delhi; Mw5.2, Chamoli) and two hypothetical earthquakes (Mw7.1; Mw8.5) are considered in our study. The rupture plane dimensions (L and W) and the slip distribution are estimated using the method of Mai and Beroza (2002). Based on focal-mechanism solutions and the depths of seismicity, we define the strike (580, 3090), the dip (650, 210), the rake (160, 770), and the depth of top edge of fault (5 km, 19 km) for the two large hypothetical earthquakes. Based on these parameters, the Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solution of the source is obtained. Ground motions are then simulated by solving the three-dimensional wave equation using the spectral element method (Komatitsch and Tromp, 1999). The key observations from our results are: 1) basin amplification factors for Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) are twice as high as Peak Ground Displacement (PGD) 2) PGV amplifications are as high as a factor of 6 for earthquakes occurring inside the basin, and a factor of 4 for Himalayan earthquakes (to the north of the study region) 3) The simulated shake maps of PGV and PGD show directivity. Based on the above observations, we conclude that it is important to include our model into low-frequency ground-motion estimation for seismic hazard analysis.

A new hybrid numerical scheme for modelling elastodynamics in unbounded media with near-source heterogeneities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajarolasvadi, Setare; Elbanna, Ahmed E.

2017-11-01

The finite difference (FD) and the spectral boundary integral (SBI) methods have been used extensively to model spontaneously-propagating shear cracks in a variety of engineering and geophysical applications. In this paper, we propose a new modelling approach in which these two methods are combined through consistent exchange of boundary tractions and displacements. Benefiting from the flexibility of FD and the efficiency of SBI methods, the proposed hybrid scheme will solve a wide range of problems in a computationally efficient way. We demonstrate the validity of the approach using two examples for dynamic rupture propagation: one in the presence of a low-velocity layer and the other in which off-fault plasticity is permitted. We discuss possible potential uses of the hybrid scheme in earthquake cycle simulations as well as an exact absorbing boundary condition.

Stability and uncertainty of finite-fault slip inversions: Application to the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.; Mendoza, C.; Ji, C.; Larson, K.M.

2007-01-01

The 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake is used to investigate stability and uncertainty aspects of the finite-fault slip inversion problem with different a priori model assumptions. We utilize records from 54 strong ground motion stations and 13 continuous, 1-Hz sampled, geodetic instruments. Two inversion procedures are compared: a linear least-squares subfault-based methodology and a nonlinear global search algorithm. These two methods encompass a wide range of the different approaches that have been used to solve the finite-fault slip inversion problem. For the Parkfield earthquake and the inversion of velocity or displacement waveforms, near-surface related site response (top 100 m, frequencies above 1 Hz) is shown to not significantly affect the solution. Results are also insensitive to selection of slip rate functions with similar duration and to subfault size if proper stabilizing constraints are used. The linear and nonlinear formulations yield consistent results when the same limitations in model parameters are in place and the same inversion norm is used. However, the solution is sensitive to the choice of inversion norm, the bounds on model parameters, such as rake and rupture velocity, and the size of the model fault plane. The geodetic data set for Parkfield gives a slip distribution different from that of the strong-motion data, which may be due to the spatial limitation of the geodetic stations and the bandlimited nature of the strong-motion data. Cross validation and the bootstrap method are used to set limits on the upper bound for rupture velocity and to derive mean slip models and standard deviations in model parameters. This analysis shows that slip on the northwestern half of the Parkfield rupture plane from the inversion of strong-motion data is model dependent and has a greater uncertainty than slip near the hypocenter.

The 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake revealed by multiple seismic wavefield simulations: slow rupture propagation on a geometrically complex fault network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, Y.; Francois-Holden, C.; Hamling, I. J.; D'Anastasio, E.; Fry, B.

2017-12-01

The 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura (New Zealand) earthquake generated ground motions over 1g across a 200-km long region, resulted in multiple onshore and offshore fault ruptures, a profusion of triggered landslides, and a regional tsunami. Here we examine the rupture evolution during the Kaikōura earthquake multiple kinematic modelling methods based on local strong-motion and high-rate GPS data. Our kinematic models constrained by near-source data capture, in detail, a complex pattern of slowly (Vr < 2km/s) propagating rupture from the south to north, with over half of the moment release occurring in the northern source region, mostly on the Kekerengu fault, 60 seconds after the origin time. Interestingly, both models indicate rupture re-activation on the Kekerengu fault with the time separation of 11 seconds. We further conclude that most near-source waveforms can be explained by slip on the crustal faults, with little (<8%) or no contribution from the subduction interface.

Tsunamis and splay fault dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wendt, J.; Oglesby, D.D.; Geist, E.L.

2009-01-01

The geometry of a fault system can have significant effects on tsunami generation, but most tsunami models to date have not investigated the dynamic processes that determine which path rupture will take in a complex fault system. To gain insight into this problem, we use the 3D finite element method to model the dynamics of a plate boundary/splay fault system. We use the resulting ground deformation as a time-dependent boundary condition for a 2D shallow-water hydrodynamic tsunami calculation. We find that if me stress distribution is homogeneous, rupture remains on the plate boundary thrust. When a barrier is introduced along the strike of the plate boundary thrust, rupture propagates to the splay faults, and produces a significantly larger tsunami man in the homogeneous case. The results have implications for the dynamics of megathrust earthquakes, and also suggest mat dynamic earthquake modeling may be a useful tool in tsunami researcn. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Impact from Magnitude-Rupture Length Uncertainty on Seismic Hazard and Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Kane, D. L.

2015-12-01

In probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments seismic sources are typically divided into two groups: fault sources (to model known faults) and background sources (to model unknown faults). In areas like the Central and Eastern United States and Hawaii the hazard and risk is driven primarily by background sources. Background sources can be modeled as areas, points or pseudo-faults. When background sources are modeled as pseudo-faults, magnitude-length or magnitude-area scaling relationships are required to construct these pseudo-faults. However the uncertainty associated with these relationships is often ignored or discarded in hazard and risk models, particularly when faults sources are the dominant contributor. Conversely, in areas modeled only with background sources these uncertainties are much more significant. In this study we test the impact of using various relationships and the resulting epistemic uncertainties on the seismic hazard and risk in the Central and Eastern United States and Hawaii. It is common to use only one magnitude length relationship when calculating hazard. However, Stirling et al. (2013) showed that for a given suite of magnitude-rupture length relationships the variability can be quite large. The 2014 US National Seismic Hazard Maps (Petersen et al., 2014) used one magnitude-rupture length relationship (Somerville, et al., 2001) in the Central and Eastern United States, and did not consider variability in the seismogenic rupture plane width. Here we use a suite of metrics to compare the USGS approach with these variable uncertainty models to assess 1) the impact on hazard and risk and 2) the epistemic uncertainty associated with choice of relationship. In areas where the seismic hazard is dominated by larger crustal faults (e.g. New Madrid) the choice of magnitude-rupture length relationship has little impact on the hazard or risk. However away from these regions, the choice of relationship is more significant and may approach the size of the uncertainty associated with the ground motion prediction equation suite.

Predicting Strong Ground-Motion Seismograms for Magnitude 9 Cascadia Earthquakes Using 3D Simulations with High Stress Drop Sub-Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankel, A. D.; Wirth, E. A.; Stephenson, W. J.; Moschetti, M. P.; Ramirez-Guzman, L.

2015-12-01

We have produced broadband (0-10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9.0 earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone by combining synthetics from simulations with a 3D velocity model at low frequencies (≤ 1 Hz) with stochastic synthetics at high frequencies (≥ 1 Hz). We use a compound rupture model consisting of a set of M8 high stress drop sub-events superimposed on a background slip distribution of up to 20m that builds relatively slowly. The 3D simulations were conducted using a finite difference program and the finite element program Hercules. The high-frequency (≥ 1 Hz) energy in this rupture model is primarily generated in the portion of the rupture with the M8 sub-events. In our initial runs, we included four M7.9-8.2 sub-events similar to those that we used to successfully model the strong ground motions recorded from the 2010 M8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake. At periods of 2-10 s, the 3D synthetics exhibit substantial amplification (about a factor of 2) for sites in the Puget Lowland and even more amplification (up to a factor of 5) for sites in the Seattle and Tacoma sedimentary basins, compared to rock sites outside of the Puget Lowland. This regional and more localized basin amplification found from the simulations is supported by observations from local earthquakes. There are substantial variations in the simulated M9 time histories and response spectra caused by differences in the hypocenter location, slip distribution, down-dip extent of rupture, coherence of the rupture front, and location of sub-events. We examined the sensitivity of the 3D synthetics to the velocity model of the Seattle basin. We found significant differences in S-wave focusing and surface wave conversions between a 3D model of the basin from a spatially-smoothed tomographic inversion of Rayleigh-wave phase velocities and a model that has an abrupt southern edge of the Seattle basin, as observed in seismic reflection profiles.

Sensitivity of the coastal tsunami simulation to the complexity of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnier, Angélique; Loevenbruck, Anne; Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène

2016-04-01

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki event, whether earthquake or tsunami, is exceptionally well documented. A wide range of onshore and offshore data has been recorded from seismic, geodetic, ocean-bottom pressure and sea level sensors. Along with these numerous observations, advance in inversion technique and computing facilities have led to many source studies. Rupture parameters inversion such as slip distribution and rupture history permit to estimate the complex coseismic seafloor deformation. From the numerous published seismic source studies, the most relevant coseismic source models are tested. The comparison of the predicted signals generated using both static and cinematic ruptures to the offshore and coastal measurements help determine which source model should be used to obtain the more consistent coastal tsunami simulations. This work is funded by the TANDEM project, reference ANR-11-RSNR-0023-01 of the French Programme Investissements d'Avenir (PIA 2014-2018).

Inferring rupture characteristics using new databases for 3D slab geometry and earthquake rupture models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, G. P.; Plescia, S. M.; Moore, G.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center has recently published a database of finite fault models for globally distributed M7.5+ earthquakes since 1990. Concurrently, we have also compiled a database of three-dimensional slab geometry models for all global subduction zones, to update and replace Slab1.0. Here, we use these two new and valuable resources to infer characteristics of earthquake rupture and propagation in subduction zones, where the vast majority of large-to-great-sized earthquakes occur. For example, we can test questions that are fairly prevalent in seismological literature. Do large ruptures preferentially occur where subduction zones are flat (e.g., Bletery et al., 2016)? Can `flatness' be mapped to understand and quantify earthquake potential? Do the ends of ruptures correlate with significant changes in slab geometry, and/or bathymetric features entering the subduction zone? Do local subduction zone geometry changes spatially correlate with areas of low slip in rupture models (e.g., Moreno et al., 2012)? Is there a correlation between average seismogenic zone dip, and/or seismogenic zone width, and earthquake size? (e.g., Hayes et al., 2012; Heuret et al., 2011). These issues are fundamental to the understanding of earthquake rupture dynamics and subduction zone seismogenesis, and yet many are poorly understood or are still debated in scientific literature. We attempt to address these questions and similar issues in this presentation, and show how these models can be used to improve our understanding of earthquake hazard in subduction zones.

Near-Field Tsunami Models with Rapid Earthquake Source Inversions from Land and Ocean-Based Observations: The Potential for Forecast and Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar, D.; Bock, Y.; Crowell, B. W.; Haase, J. S.

2013-12-01

Computation of predicted tsunami wave heights and runup in the regions adjacent to large earthquakes immediately after rupture initiation remains a challenging problem. Limitations of traditional seismological instrumentation in the near field which cannot be objectively employed for real-time inversions and the non-unique source inversion results are a major concern for tsunami modelers. Employing near-field seismic, GPS and wave gauge data from the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we test the capacity of static finite fault slip models obtained from newly developed algorithms to produce reliable tsunami forecasts. First we demonstrate the ability of seismogeodetic source models determined from combined land-based GPS and strong motion seismometers to forecast near-source tsunamis in ~3 minutes after earthquake origin time (OT). We show that these models, based on land-borne sensors only tend to underestimate the tsunami but are good enough to provide a realistic first warning. We then demonstrate that rapid ingestion of offshore shallow water (100 - 1000 m) wave gauge data significantly improves the model forecasts and possible warnings. We ingest data from 2 near-source ocean-bottom pressure sensors and 6 GPS buoys into the earthquake source inversion process. Tsunami Green functions (tGFs) are generated using the GeoClaw package, a benchmarked finite volume code with adaptive mesh refinement. These tGFs are used for a joint inversion with the land-based data and substantially improve the earthquake source and tsunami forecast. Model skill is assessed by detailed comparisons of the simulation output to 2000+ tsunami runup survey measurements collected after the event. We update the source model and tsunami forecast and warning at 10 min intervals. We show that by 20 min after OT the tsunami is well-predicted with a high variance reduction to the survey data and by ~30 minutes a model that can be considered final, since little changed is observed afterwards, is achieved. This is an indirect approach to tsunami warning, it relies on automatic determination of the earthquake source prior to tsunami simulation. It is more robust than ad-hoc approaches because it relies on computation of a finite-extent centroid moment tensor to objectively determine the style of faulting and the fault plane geometry on which to launch the heterogeneous static slip inversion. Operator interaction and physical assumptions are minimal. Thus, the approach can provide the initial conditions for tsunami simulation (seafloor motion) irrespective of the type of earthquake source and relies heavily on oceanic wave gauge measurements for source determination. It reliably distinguishes among strike-slip, normal and thrust faulting events, all of which have been observed recently to occur in subduction zones and pose distinct tsunami hazards.

Source rupture process of the 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake estimated from the kinematic waveform inversion of strong-motion data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Ao; Wang, Mingfeng; Yu, Xiangwei; Zhang, Wenbo

2018-03-01

On 2016 November 13, an Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred in the northeast of the South Island of New Zealand near Kaikoura. The earthquake caused severe damages and great impacts on local nature and society. Referring to the tectonic environment and defined active faults, the field investigation and geodetic evidence reveal that at least 12 fault sections ruptured in the earthquake, and the focal mechanism is one of the most complicated in historical earthquakes. On account of the complexity of the source rupture, we propose a multisegment fault model based on the distribution of surface ruptures and active tectonics. We derive the source rupture process of the earthquake using the kinematic waveform inversion method with the multisegment fault model from strong-motion data of 21 stations (0.05-0.35 Hz). The inversion result suggests the rupture initiates in the epicentral area near the Humps fault, and then propagates northeastward along several faults, until the offshore Needles fault. The Mw 7.8 event is a mixture of right-lateral strike and reverse slip, and the maximum slip is approximately 19 m. The synthetic waveforms reproduce the characteristics of the observed ones well. In addition, we synthesize the coseismic offsets distribution of the ruptured region from the slips of upper subfaults in the fault model, which is roughly consistent with the surface breaks observed in the field survey.

Rupture Dynamics Simulation for Non-Planar fault by a Curved Grid Finite Difference Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Zhu, G.; Chen, X.

2011-12-01

We first implement the non-staggered finite difference method to solve the dynamic rupture problem, with split-node, for non-planar fault. Split-node method for dynamic simulation has been used widely, because of that it's more precise to represent the fault plane than other methods, for example, thick fault, stress glut and so on. The finite difference method is also a popular numeric method to solve kinematic and dynamic problem in seismology. However, previous works focus most of theirs eyes on the staggered-grid method, because of its simplicity and computational efficiency. However this method has its own disadvantage comparing to non-staggered finite difference method at some fact for example describing the boundary condition, especially the irregular boundary, or non-planar fault. Zhang and Chen (2006) proposed the MacCormack high order non-staggered finite difference method based on curved grids to precisely solve irregular boundary problem. Based upon on this non-staggered grid method, we make success of simulating the spontaneous rupture problem. The fault plane is a kind of boundary condition, which could be irregular of course. So it's convinced that we could simulate rupture process in the case of any kind of bending fault plane. We will prove this method is valid in the case of Cartesian coordinate first. In the case of bending fault, the curvilinear grids will be used.

Use of regional mechanical properties of abdominal aortic aneurysms to advance finite element modeling of rupture risk.

PubMed

Tierney, Áine P; Callanan, Anthony; McGloughlin, Timothy M

2012-02-01

To investigate the use of regional variations in the mechanical properties of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) in finite element (FE) modeling of AAA rupture risk, which has heretofore assumed homogeneous mechanical tissue properties. Electrocardiogram-gated computed tomography scans from 3 male patients with known infrarenal AAA were used to characterize the behavior of the aneurysm in 4 different segments (posterior, anterior, and left and right lateral) at maximum diameter and above the infrarenal aorta. The elasticity of the aneurysm (circumferential cyclic strain, compliance, and the Hudetz incremental modulus) was calculated for each segment and the aneurysm as a whole. The FE analysis inclusive of prestress (pre-existing tensile stress) produced a detailed stress pattern on each of the aneurysm models under pressure loading. The 4 largest areas of stress in each region were considered in conjunction with the local regional properties of the segment to define a specific regional prestress rupture index (RPRI). In terms of elasticity, there were average reductions of 68% in circumferential cyclic strain and 63% in compliance, with a >5-fold increase in incremental modulus, between the healthy and the aneurysmal aorta for each patient. There were also regional variations in all elastic properties in each individual patient. The average difference in total stress inclusive of prestress was 59%, 67%, and 15%, respectively, for the 3 patients. Comparing the strain from FE models with the CT scans revealed an average difference in strain of 1.55% for the segmented models and 3.61% for the homogeneous models, which suggests that the segmented models more accurately reflect in vivo behavior. RPRI values were calculated for each segment for all patients. A greater understanding of the local material properties and their use in FE models is essential for greater accuracy in rupture prediction. Quantifying the regional behavior will yield insight into the changes in patient-specific aneurysms and increase understanding about the progression of aneurysmal disease.

Tsunami Source Model of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake inferred from Tide Gauge and Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujii, Y.; Satake, K.

2005-12-01

The tsunami generation process of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake were estimated from the tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges and sea surface heights captured by satellite altimetry measurements over the Indian Ocean. The earthquake (0:58:53, 26, Dec., 2004, UTC), the largest in the last 40 years, caused devastating tsunami damages to the countries around the Indian Ocean. One of the important questions is the source length; the aftershocks were distributed along the Sunda trench for 1000 to 1200 km, from off northwestern part of Sumatra island through Nicobar islands to Andaman island, while seismic wave analyses indicate much shorter source length (several hundred km). We used instrumental data of this tsunami, tide gauges and sea surface heights. Tide gauge data have been collected by Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). We have also used another tide gauges data for tsunami simulation analysis. Tsunami propagation was captured as sea surface heights of Jason-1 satellite altimetry measurements over the Indian Ocean for the first time (Gower, 2005). We numerically compute tsunami propagation on actually bathymetry. ETOPO2 (Smith and Sandwell, 1997), the gridded data of global ocean depth from bathymetry soundings and satellite gravity data, are less reliable in the shallow ocean. To improve the accuracy, we have digitized the charts near coasts and merged the digitized data with the ETOPO2 data. The long-wave equation and the equation of motion were numerically solved by finite-difference method (Satake, 1995). As the initial condition, a static deformation of seafloor has been calculated using rectangular fault model (Okada, 1985). The source region is divided into 22 subfaults. We fixed the size and geometry of each subfault, and varied the slip amount and rise time (or slip duration) for each subfault, and rupture velocity. Tsunami waveforms or Greens functions for each subfault were calculated for the rise times of 3, 10, 30 and 60 minutes. Rupture velocities were varied for 0.7, 1.7 and 2.5 km/s. Forward modeling indicates that the best fits between the observed and computed waveforms were obtained in the case of rupture velocity 1.7 km/s and rise time 3 minutes. The slip was large in the southern part of the source region.

Analysis of the Effects of Normal Walking on Ankle Joint Contact Characteristics After Acute Inversion Ankle Sprain.

PubMed

Bae, Ji Yong; Park, Kyung Soon; Seon, Jong Keun; Jeon, Insu

2015-12-01

To show the causal relationship between normal walking after various lateral ankle ligament (LAL) injuries caused by acute inversion ankle sprains and alterations in ankle joint contact characteristics, finite element simulations of normal walking were carried out using an intact ankle joint model and LAL injury models. A walking experiment using a volunteer with a normal ankle joint was performed to obtain the boundary conditions for the simulations and to support the appropriateness of the simulation results. Contact pressure and strain on the talus articular cartilage and anteroposterior and mediolateral translations of the talus were calculated. Ankles with ruptured anterior talofibular ligaments (ATFLs) had a higher likelihood of experiencing increased ankle joint contact pressures, strains and translations than ATFL-deficient ankles. In particular, ankles with ruptured ATFL + calcaneofibular ligaments and all ruptured ankles had a similar likelihood as the ATFL-ruptured ankles. The push off stance phase was the most likely situation for increased ankle joint contact pressures, strains and translations in LAL-injured ankles.

Near-Source Shaking and Dynamic Rupture in Plastic Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, A.; Mai, P. M.; Dalguer, L. A.; Ampuero, J. P.

2012-12-01

Recent well recorded earthquakes show a high degree of complexity at the source level that severely affects the resulting ground motion in near and far-field seismic data. In our study, we focus on investigating source-dominated near-field ground motion features from numerical dynamic rupture simulations in an elasto-visco-plastic bulk. Our aim is to contribute to a more direct connection from theoretical and computational results to field and seismological observations. Previous work showed that a diversity of rupture styles emerges from simulations on faults governed by velocity-and-state-dependent friction with rapid velocity-weakening at high slip rate. For instance, growing pulses lead to re-activation of slip due to gradual stress build-up near the hypocenter, as inferred in some source studies of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Moreover, off-fault energy dissipation implied physical limits on extreme ground motion by limiting peak slip rate and rupture velocity. We investigate characteristic features in near-field strong ground motion generated by dynamic in-plane rupture simulations. We present effects of plasticity on source process signatures, off-fault damage patterns and ground shaking. Independent of rupture style, asymmetric damage patterns across the fault are produced that contribute to the total seismic moment, and even dominantly at high angles between the fault and the maximum principal background stress. The off-fault plastic strain fields induced by transitions between rupture styles reveal characteristic signatures of the mechanical source processes during the transition. Comparing different rupture styles in elastic and elasto-visco-plastic media to identify signatures of off-fault plasticity, we find varying degrees of alteration of near-field radiation due to plastic energy dissipation. Subshear pulses suffer more peak particle velocity reduction due to plasticity than cracks. Supershear ruptures are affected even more. The occurrence of multiple rupture fronts affect seismic potency release rate, amplitude spectra, peak particle velocity distributions and near-field seismograms. Our simulations enable us to trace features of source processes in synthetic seismograms, for example exhibiting a re-activation of slip. Such physical models may provide starting points for future investigations of field properties of earthquake source mechanisms and natural fault conditions. In the long-term, our findings may be helpful for seismic hazard analysis and the improvement of seismic source models.

Modeling the Fluid Withdraw and Injection Induced Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, C.

2016-12-01

We present an open source numerical code, Defmod, that allows one to model the induced seismicity in an efficient and standalone manner. The fluid withdraw and injection induced earthquake has been a great concern to the industries including oil/gas, wastewater disposal and CO2 sequestration. Being able to numerically model the induced seismicity is long desired. To do that, one has to consider at lease two processes, a steady process that describes the inducing and aseismic stages before and in between the seismic events, and an abrupt process that describes the dynamic fault rupture accompanied by seismic energy radiations during the events. The steady process can be adequately modeled by a quasi-static model, while the abrupt process has to be modeled by a dynamic model. In most of the published modeling works, only one of these processes is considered. The geomechanicists and reservoir engineers are focused more on the quasi-static modeling, whereas the geophysicists and seismologists are focused more on the dynamic modeling. The finite element code Defmod combines these two models into a hybrid model that uses the failure criterion and frictional laws to adaptively switch between the (quasi-)static and dynamic states. The code is capable of modeling episodic fault rupture driven by quasi-static loading, e.g. due to reservoir fluid withdraw and/or injection, and by dynamic loading, e.g. due to the foregoing earthquakes. We demonstrate a case study for the 2013 Azle earthquake.

Macroscopic Source Properties from Dynamic Rupture Styles in Plastic Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, A.; Ampuero, J. P.; Dalguer, L. A.; Mai, P. M.

2011-12-01

High stress concentrations at earthquake rupture fronts may generate an inelastic off-fault response at the rupture tip, leading to increased energy absorption in the damage zone. Furthermore, the induced asymmetric plastic strain field in in-plane rupture modes may produce bimaterial interfaces that can increase radiation efficiency and reduce frictional dissipation. Off-fault inelasticity thus plays an important role for realistic predictions of near-fault ground motion. Guided by our previous studies in the 2D elastic case, we perform rupture dynamics simulations including rate-and-state friction and off-fault plasticity to investigate the effects on the rupture properties. We quantitatively analyze macroscopic source properties for different rupture styles, ranging from cracks to pulses and subshear to supershear ruptures, and their transitional mechanisms. The energy dissipation due to off-fault inelasticity modifies the conditions to obtain each rupture style and alters macroscopic source properties. We examine apparent fracture energy, rupture and healing front speed, peak slip and peak slip velocity, dynamic stress drop and size of the process and plastic zones, slip and plastic seismic moment, and their connection to ground motion. This presentation focuses on the effects of rupture style and off-fault plasticity on the resulting ground motion patterns, especially on characteristic slip velocity function signatures and resulting seismic moments. We aim at developing scaling rules for equivalent elastic models, as function of background stress and frictional parameters, that may lead to improved "pseudo-dynamic" source parameterizations for ground-motion calculation. Moreover, our simulations provide quantitative relations between off-fault energy dissipation and macroscopic source properties. These relations might provide a self-consistent theoretical framework for the study of the earthquake energy balance based on observable earthquake source parameters.

Finite-fault source inversion using teleseismic P waves: Simple parameterization and rapid analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mendoza, C.; Hartzell, S.

2013-01-01

We examine the ability of teleseismic P waves to provide a timely image of the rupture history for large earthquakes using a simple, 2D finite‐fault source parameterization. We analyze the broadband displacement waveforms recorded for the 2010 Mw∼7 Darfield (New Zealand) and El Mayor‐Cucapah (Baja California) earthquakes using a single planar fault with a fixed rake. Both of these earthquakes were observed to have complicated fault geometries following detailed source studies conducted by other investigators using various data types. Our kinematic, finite‐fault analysis of the events yields rupture models that similarly identify the principal areas of large coseismic slip along the fault. The results also indicate that the amount of stabilization required to spatially smooth the slip across the fault and minimize the seismic moment is related to the amplitudes of the observed P waveforms and can be estimated from the absolute values of the elements of the coefficient matrix. This empirical relationship persists for earthquakes of different magnitudes and is consistent with the stabilization constraint obtained from the L‐curve in Tikhonov regularization. We use the relation to estimate the smoothing parameters for the 2011 Mw 7.1 East Turkey, 2012 Mw 8.6 Northern Sumatra, and 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes and invert the teleseismic P waves in a single step to recover timely, preliminary slip models that identify the principal source features observed in finite‐fault solutions obtained by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (USGS/NEIC) from the analysis of body‐ and surface‐wave data. These results indicate that smoothing constraints can be estimated a priori to derive a preliminary, first‐order image of the coseismic slip using teleseismic records.

Systematic Observations of the Slip-pulse Properties of Large Earthquake Ruptures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar, D.; Hayes, G. P.

2017-12-01

In earthquake dynamics there are two end member models of rupture: propagating cracks and self-healing pulses. These arise due to different properties of ruptures and have implications for seismic hazard; rupture mode controls near-field strong ground motions. Past studies favor the pulse-like mode of rupture, however, due to a variety of limitations, it has proven difficult to systematically establish their kinematic properties. Here we synthesize observations from a database of >150 rupture models of earthquakes spanning M7-M9 processed in a uniform manner and show the magnitude scaling properties (rise time, pulse width, and peak slip rate) of these slip pulses indicates self-similarity. Self similarity suggests a weak form of rupture determinism, where early on in the source process broader, higher amplitude slip pulses will distinguish between events of icnreasing magnitude. Indeed, we find by analyzing the moment rate functions that large and very large events are statistically distinguishable relatively early (at 15 seconds) in the rupture process. This suggests that with dense regional geophysical networks strong ground motions from a large rupture can be identified before their onset across the source region.

Factors controlling high-frequency radiation from extended ruptures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beresnev, Igor A.

2017-09-01

Small-scale slip heterogeneity or variations in rupture velocity on the fault plane are often invoked to explain the high-frequency radiation from earthquakes. This view has no theoretical basis, which follows, for example, from the representation integral of elasticity, an exact solution for the radiated wave field. The Fourier transform, applied to the integral, shows that the seismic spectrum is fully controlled by that of the source time function, while the distribution of final slip and rupture acceleration/deceleration only contribute to directivity. This inference is corroborated by the precise numerical computation of the full radiated field from the representation integral. We compare calculated radiation from four finite-fault models: (1) uniform slip function with low slip velocity, (2) slip function spatially modulated by a sinusoidal function, (3) slip function spatially modulated by a sinusoidal function with random roughness added, and (4) uniform slip function with high slip velocity. The addition of "asperities," both regular and irregular, does not cause any systematic increase in the spectral level of high-frequency radiation, except for the creation of maxima due to constructive interference. On the other hand, an increase in the maximum rate of slip on the fault leads to highly amplified high frequencies, in accordance with the prediction on the basis of a simple point-source treatment of the fault. Hence, computations show that the temporal rate of slip, not the spatial heterogeneity on faults, is the predominant factor forming the high-frequency radiation and thus controlling the velocity and acceleration of the resulting ground motions.

3D Dynamic Rupture Simulations along the Wasatch Fault, Utah, Incorporating Rough-fault Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Withers, Kyle; Moschetti, Morgan

2017-04-01

Studies have found that the Wasatch Fault has experienced successive large magnitude (>Mw 7.2) earthquakes, with an average recurrence interval near 350 years. To date, no large magnitude event has been recorded along the fault, with the last rupture along the Salt Lake City segment occurring 1300 years ago. Because of this, as well as the lack of strong ground motion records in basins and from normal-faulting earthquakes worldwide, seismic hazard in the region is not well constrained. Previous numerical simulations have modeled deterministic ground motion in the heavily populated regions of Utah, near Salt Lake City, but were primarily restricted to low frequencies ( 1 Hz). Our goal is to better assess broadband ground motions from the Wasatch Fault Zone. Here, we extend deterministic ground motion prediction to higher frequencies ( 5 Hz) in this region by using physics-based spontaneous dynamic rupture simulations along a normal fault with characteristics derived from geologic observations. We use a summation by parts finite difference code (Waveqlab3D) with rough-fault topography following a self-similar fractal distribution (over length scales from 100 m to the size of the fault) and include off-fault plasticity to simulate ruptures > Mw 6.5. Geometric complexity along fault planes has previously been shown to generate broadband sources with spectral energy matching that of observations. We investigate the impact of varying the hypocenter location, as well as the influence that multiple realizations of rough-fault topography have on the rupture process and resulting ground motion. We utilize Waveqlab3's computational efficiency to model wave-propagation to a significant distance from the fault with media heterogeneity at both long and short spatial wavelengths. These simulations generate a synthetic dataset of ground motions to compare with GMPEs, in terms of both the median and inter and intraevent variability.

Solving the dynamic rupture problem with different numerical approaches and constitutive laws

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bizzarri, A.; Cocco, M.; Andrews, D.J.; Boschi, Enzo

2001-01-01

We study the dynamic initiation, propagation and arrest of a 2-D in-plane shear rupture by solving the elastodynamic equation by using both a boundary integral equation method and a finite difference approach. For both methods we adopt different constitutive laws: a slip-weakening (SW) law, with constant weakening rate, and rate- and state-dependent friction laws (Dieterich-Ruina). Our numerical procedures allow the use of heterogeneous distributions of constitutive parameters along the fault for both formulations. We first compare the two solution methods with an SW law, emphasizing the required stability conditions to achieve a good resolution of the cohesive zone and to avoid artificial complexity in the solutions. Our modelling results show that the two methods provide very similar time histories of dynamic source parameters. We point out that, if a careful control of resolution and stability is performed, the two methods yield identical solutions. We have also compared the rupture evolution resulting from an SW and a rate- and state-dependent friction law. This comparison shows that despite the different constitutive formulations, a similar behaviour is simulated during the rupture propagation and arrest. We also observe a crack tip bifurcation and a jump in rupture velocity (approaching the P-wave speed) with the Dieterich-Ruina (DR) law. The rupture arrest at a barrier (high strength zone) and the barrier-healing mechanism are also reproduced by this law. However, this constitutive formulation allows the simulation of a more general and complex variety of rupture behaviours. By assuming different heterogeneous distributions of the initial constitutive parameters, we are able to model a barrier-healing as well as a self-healing process. This result suggests that if the heterogeneity of the constitutive parameters is taken into account, the different healing mechanisms can be simulated. We also study the nucleation phase duration Tn, defined as the time necessary for the crack to reach the half-length Ic. We compare the Tn values resulting from distinct simulations calculated using different constitutive laws and different sets of constitutive parameters. Our results confirm that the DR law provides a different description of the nucleation process than the SW law adopted in this study. We emphasize that the DR law yields a complete description of the rupture process, which includes the most prominent features of SW.

Rupture Dynamics and Ground Motion from Earthquakes on Rough Faults in Heterogeneous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bydlon, S. A.; Kozdon, J. E.; Duru, K.; Dunham, E. M.

2013-12-01

Heterogeneities in the material properties of Earth's crust scatter propagating seismic waves. The effects of scattered waves are reflected in the seismic coda and depend on the amplitude of the heterogeneities, spatial arrangement, and distance from source to receiver. In the vicinity of the fault, scattered waves influence the rupture process by introducing fluctuations in the stresses driving propagating ruptures. Further variability in the rupture process is introduced by naturally occurring geometric complexity of fault surfaces, and the stress changes that accompany slip on rough surfaces. Our goal is to better understand the origin of complexity in the earthquake source process, and to quantify the relative importance of source complexity and scattering along the propagation path in causing incoherence of high frequency ground motion. Using a 2D high order finite difference rupture dynamics code, we nucleate ruptures on either flat or rough faults that obey strongly rate-weakening friction laws. These faults are embedded in domains with spatially varying material properties characterized by Von Karman autocorrelation functions and their associated power spectral density functions, with variations in wave speed of approximately 5 to 10%. Flat fault simulations demonstrate that off-fault material heterogeneity, at least with this particular form and amplitude, has only a minor influence on the rupture process (i.e., fluctuations in slip and rupture velocity). In contrast, ruptures histories on rough faults in both homogeneous and heterogeneous media include much larger short-wavelength fluctuations in slip and rupture velocity. We therefore conclude that source complexity is dominantly influenced by fault geometric complexity. To examine contributions of scattering versus fault geometry on ground motions, we compute spatially averaged root-mean-square (RMS) acceleration values as a function of fault perpendicular distance for a homogeneous medium and several heterogeneous media characterized by different statistical properties. We find that at distances less than ~6 km from the fault, RMS acceleration values from simulations with homogeneous and heterogeneous media are similar, but at greater distances the RMS values associated with heterogeneous media are larger than those associated with homogeneous media. The magnitude of this divergence increases with the amplitude of the heterogeneities. For instance, for a heterogeneous medium with a 10% standard deviation in material property values relative to mean values, RMS accelerations are ~50% larger than for a homogeneous medium at distances greater than 6 km. This finding is attributed to the scattering of coherent pulses into multiple pulses of decreased amplitude that subsequently arrive at later times. In order to understand the robustness of these results, an extension of our dynamic rupture and wave propagation code to 3D is underway.

Source Mechanisms of Destructive Tsunamigenic Earthquakes occurred along the Major Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay; Ulutaş, Ergin

2016-04-01

Subduction zones, where an oceanic plate is subducted down into the mantle by tectonic forces, are potential tsunami locations. Many big, destructive and tsunamigenic earthquakes (Mw > 7.5) and high amplitude tsunami waves are observed along the major subduction zones particularly near Indonesia, Japan, Kuril and Aleutan Islands, Gulf of Alaska, Southern America. Not all earthquakes are tsunamigenic; in order to generate a tsunami, the earthquake must occur under or near the ocean, be large, and create significant vertical movements of the seafloor. It is also known that tsunamigenic earthquakes release their energy over a couple of minutes, have long source time functions and slow-smooth ruptures. In this study, we performed point-source inversions by using teleseismic long-period P- and SH- and broad-band P-waveforms recorded by the Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) and the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN) stations. We obtained source mechanism parameters and finite-fault slip distributions of recent destructive ten earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7.5) by comparing the shapes and amplitudes of long period P- and SH-waveforms, recorded in the distance range of 30° - 90°, with synthetic waveforms. We further obtained finite-fault rupture histories of those earthquakes to determine the faulting area (fault length and width), maximum displacement, rupture duration and stress drop. We applied a new back-projection method that uses teleseismic P-waveforms to integrate the direct P-phase with reflected phases from structural discontinuities near the source, and customized it to estimate the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic energy release of earthquakes. Inversion results exhibit that recent tsunamigenic earthquakes show dominantly thrust faulting mechanisms with small amount of strike-slip components. Their focal depths are also relatively shallow (h < 40 km). As an example, the September 16, 2015 Illapel (Chile) earthquake (Mw: 8.3; h: 26 km) reflects the major characteristics of the Peru-Chile subduction zone between the Nazca and South America Plates. The size, location, depth and focal mechanism of this earthquake are consistent with its occurrence on the megathrust interface in this region. This study is supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK, Project No: CAYDAG - 114Y066).

Constraints on the rupture process of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouin, M.-P.; Clévédé, E.; Bukchin, B.; Mostinski, A.; Patau, G.

2003-04-01

Kinematic and static models of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake published in the literature are quite different from one to each other. In order to extract the characteristic features of this event, we determine the integral estimates of the geometry, source duration and rupture propagation of this event. Those estimates are given by the stress glut moments of total degree 2 inverting long period surface wave (LPSW) amplitude spectra (Bukchin, 1995). We draw comparisons with the integral estimates deduced from kinematic models obtained by inversion of strong motion data set and/or teleseismic body wave (Bouchon et al, 2002; Delouis et al., 2000; Yagi and Kukuchi, 2000; Sekiguchi and Iwata, 2002). While the equivalent rupture zone and the eastward directivity are consistent among all models, the LPSW solution displays a strong unilateral character of the rupture associated with a short rupture duration that is not compatible with the solutions deduced from the published models. Using a simple equivalent kinematic model, we reproduce the integral estimates of the rupture process by adjusting a few free parameters controlling the western and eastern parts of the rupture. We show that the LPSW solution strongly suggest that: - There was significant moment released on the eastern segment of the activated fault system during the Izmit earthquake; - The rupture velocity decreases on this segment. We will discuss how these results allow to enlighten the scattering of source process published for this earthquake.

Simulation and evaluation of rupturable coated capsules by finite element method.

PubMed

Yang, Yan; Fang, Jie; Shen, Lian; Shan, Weiguang

2017-03-15

The objective of this study was to simulate and evaluate the burst behavior of rupturable coated capsules by finite element method (FEM). Film and coated capsules were prepared by dip-coating method and their dimensions were determined by stereomicroscope. Mechanical properties of the film were measured by tensile test and used as material properties of FEM models. Swelling pressure was determined by restrained expansion method and applied to the internal surface of FEM models. Water uptake of coated capsules was determined to study the formation of internal pressure. Burst test and in vitro dissolution was used to verify the FEM models, which were used to study and predict the coating burst behavior. Simulated results of coating burst behavior were well agreed with the experiment results. Swelling pressure, material properties and dimensions of coating had influence on the maximum stress. Burst pressure and critical L-HPC content were calculated for burst prediction and formulation optimization. FEM simulation was a feasible way to simulate and evaluate the burst behavior of coated capsules. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The 12 June 2017 Mw 6.3 Lesvos Island (Aegean Sea) earthquake: Slip model and directivity estimated with finite-fault inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiratzi, Anastasia

2018-01-01

On 12 June 2017 (UTC 12:28:38.26) a magnitude Mw 6.3 earthquake occurred offshore Lesvos Island in SE Aegean Sea, which was widely felt, caused 1 fatality, and partially ruined the village of Vrisa on the south-eastern coast of the island. I invert broad band and strong motion waveforms from regional stations to obtain the source model and the distribution of slip onto the fault plane. The hypocentre is located at a depth of 7 km in the upper crust. The mainshock ruptured a WNW-ESE striking, SW dipping, normal fault, projecting offshore and bounding the Lesvos Basin. The strongest and most aftershocks clustered away from the hypocentre, at the eastern edge of the activated area. This cluster indicates the activation of a different fault segment, exhibiting sinistral strike-slip motions, along a plane striking WNW-ESE. The slip of the mainshock is confined in a single large asperity, WNW from the hypocentre, with dimensions 20 km × 10 km along fault strike and dip, respectively. The average slip of the asperity is 50 cm and the peak slip is 1 m. The rupture propagated unilaterally towards WNW to the coastline of Lesvos island at a relatively high speed ( 3.1 km/s). The imaged slip model and forward modelling was used to calculate peak ground velocities (PGVs) in the near-field. The damage pattern produced by this earthquake, especially in the village of Vrisa is compatible with the combined effect of rupture directivity, proximity to the slip patch and the fault edge, spectral content of motions, and local site conditions.

Implications on 1 + 1 D Tsunami Runup Modeling due to Time Features of the Earthquake Source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, M.; Riquelme, S.; Ruiz, J.; Campos, J.

2018-02-01

The time characteristics of the seismic source are usually neglected in tsunami modeling, due to the difference in the time scale of both processes. Nonetheless, there are just a few analytical studies that intended to explain separately the role of the rise time and the rupture velocity. In this work, we extend an analytical 1 + 1 D solution for the shoreline motion time series, from the static case to the kinematic case, by including both rise time and rupture velocity. Our results show that the static case corresponds to a limit case of null rise time and infinite rupture velocity. Both parameters contribute in shifting the arrival time, but maximum runup may be affected by very slow ruptures and long rise time. Parametric analysis reveals that runup is strictly decreasing with the rise time while is highly amplified in a certain range of slow rupture velocities. For even lower rupture velocities, the tsunami excitation vanishes and for larger, quicker approaches to the instantaneous case.

Implications on 1 + 1 D Tsunami Runup Modeling due to Time Features of the Earthquake Source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, M.; Riquelme, S.; Ruiz, J.; Campos, J.

2018-04-01

The time characteristics of the seismic source are usually neglected in tsunami modeling, due to the difference in the time scale of both processes. Nonetheless, there are just a few analytical studies that intended to explain separately the role of the rise time and the rupture velocity. In this work, we extend an analytical 1 + 1 D solution for the shoreline motion time series, from the static case to the kinematic case, by including both rise time and rupture velocity. Our results show that the static case corresponds to a limit case of null rise time and infinite rupture velocity. Both parameters contribute in shifting the arrival time, but maximum runup may be affected by very slow ruptures and long rise time. Parametric analysis reveals that runup is strictly decreasing with the rise time while is highly amplified in a certain range of slow rupture velocities. For even lower rupture velocities, the tsunami excitation vanishes and for larger, quicker approaches to the instantaneous case.

Possible Interactions between the 2012 Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii Subduction Earthquake and the Transform Queen Charlotte Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, T. E.; Cassidy, J. F.; Dosso, S. E.

2014-12-01

This paper examines the effect of the October 2012 Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii earthquake on aftershock nodal planes and the neighboring Queen Charlotte Fault (QCF) through Coulomb modeling and directivity analysis. The Haida Gwaii earthquake was the largest thrust event recorded in this region and ruptured an area of ~150 by 40 km on a gently NE-dipping fault off the west coast of Moresby Island, British Columbia. It is particularly interesting as it is located just to the west of the QCF, the predominantly right-lateral strike-slip fault separating the Pacific and North American plates. The QCF was the site of the largest recorded earthquake in Canada: the 1949 Ms 8.1 strike-slip earthquake whose rupture extended as far south as this 2012 event and roughly as far north as an Mw7.5 strike slip event at Craig, Alaska, which occurred just two months later in January 2013. The 75 km long portion of the QCF south of the 1949 rupture has not had a large (M ≥ 7) earthquake in over 116 years, representing a significant seismic gap. Coulomb stress transfer analysis is performed using finite fault models which incorporate seismic and geodetic data. Static stress changes are projected onto aftershock nodal planes and the QCF, including an inferred southern seismic gap. We find up to 86% of aftershocks are consistent with triggering, and as high as 96% for normal faulting events. The QCF experiences static stress changes greater than the empirically-determined threshold for triggering, with positive stress changes predicted for roughly half of the seismic gap region. Added stress from the mainshock and a lack of post-mainshock events make this seismic gap a likely location for future earthquakes. Empirical Green's function and directivity analyses are also performed to constrain rupture kinematics of the mainshock using systematic azimuthal variations in relative source time functions. Results indicate rupture progressed mainly to the northwest within 15o of the direction of the 2013 Craig epicenter, with at least two sources of significant moment release. These results explain observed surface wave amplification at Alaskan seismic stations and support the idea that strong surface wave shaking may be linked to the possible delayed triggering of the Mw 7.5 Craig event, through an unknown intermediate mechanism that accounts for the two-month hiatus.

Implications on 1+1 D runup modeling due to time features of the earthquake source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, M.; Riquelme, S.; Campos, J. A.

2017-12-01

The time characteristics of the seismic source are usually neglected in tsunami modeling, due to the difference in the time scale of both processes. Nonetheless, there are just a few analytical studies that intended to explain separately the role of the rise time and the rupture velocity. In this work, we extend an analytical 1+1D solution for the shoreline motion time series, from the static case to the dynamic case, by including both, rise time and rupture velocity. Results show that the static case correspond to a limit case of null rise time and infinite rupture velocity. Both parameters contribute in shifting the arrival time, but maximum run-up may be affected by very slow ruptures and long rise time. The analytical solution has been tested for the Nicaraguan tsunami earthquake, suggesting that the rupture was not slow enough to cause wave amplification to explain the high runup observations.

Source and Aftershock Analysis of a Large Deep Earthquake in the Tonga Flat Slab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, C.; Wiens, D. A.; Warren, L. M.

2013-12-01

The 9 November 2009 (Mw 7.3) deep focus earthquake (depth = 591 km) occurred in the Tonga flat slab region, which is characterized by limited seismicity but has been imaged as a flat slab in tomographic imaging studies. In addition, this earthquake occurred immediately beneath the largest of the Fiji Islands and was well recorded by a temporary array of 16 broadband seismographs installed in Fiji and Tonga, providing an excellent opportunity to study the source mechanism of a deep earthquake in a partially aseismic flat slab region. We determine the positions of main shock hypocenter, its aftershocks and moment release subevents relative to the background seismicity using a hypocentroidal decomposition relative relocation method. We also investigate the rupture directivity by measuring the variation of rupture durations at different azimuth [e.g., Warren and Silver, 2006]. Arrival times picked from the local seismic stations together with teleseismic arrival times from the International Seismological Centre (ISC) are used for the relocation. Teleseismic waveforms are used for directivity study. Preliminary results show this entire region is relatively aseismic, with diffuse background seismicity distributed between 550-670 km. The main shock happened in a previously aseismic region, with only 1 small earthquake within 50 km during 1980-2012. 11 aftershocks large enough for good locations all occurred within the first 24 hours following the earthquake. The aftershock zone extends about 80 km from NW to SE, covering a much larger area than the mainshock rupture. The aftershock distribution does not correspond to the main shock fault plane, unlike the 1994 March 9 (Mw 7.6) Fiji-Tonga earthquake in the steeply dipping, highly seismic part of the Tonga slab. Mainshock subevent locations suggest a sub-horizontal SE-NW rupture direction. However, the directivity study shows a complicated rupture process which could not be solved with simple rupture assumption. We will present the result of this example earthquake and some other deep earthquakes at the fall meeting. Warren, L. M., and P. G. Silver (2006), Measurement of differential rupture durations as constraints on the source finiteness of deep earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06304, doi:10.1029/2005JB004001.

Rupture complexity of the Mw 8.3 sea of okhotsk earthquake: Rapid triggering of complementary earthquakes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wei, Shengji; Helmberger, Don; Zhan, Zhongwen; Graves, Robert

2013-01-01

We derive a finite slip model for the 2013 Mw 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake (Z = 610 km) by inverting calibrated teleseismic P waveforms. The inversion shows that the earthquake ruptured on a 10° dipping rectangular fault zone (140 km × 50 km) and evolved into a sequence of four large sub-events (E1–E4) with an average rupture speed of 4.0 km/s. The rupture process can be divided into two main stages. The first propagated south, rupturing sub-events E1, E2, and E4. The second stage (E3) originated near E2 with a delay of 12 s and ruptured northward, filling the slip gap between E1 and E2. This kinematic process produces an overall slip pattern similar to that observed in shallow swarms, except it occurs over a compressed time span of about 30 s and without many aftershocks, suggesting that sub-event triggering for deep events is significantly more efficient than for shallow events.

Accounting for Fault Roughness in Pseudo-Dynamic Ground-Motion Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. Martin; Galis, Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Vyas, Jagdish C.; Dunham, Eric M.

2017-09-01

Geological faults comprise large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness. These multi-scale geometrical complexities determine the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process, and therefore affect the radiated seismic wavefield. In this study, we examine how different parameterizations of fault roughness lead to variability in the rupture evolution and the resulting near-fault ground motions. Rupture incoherence naturally induced by fault roughness generates high-frequency radiation that follows an ω-2 decay in displacement amplitude spectra. Because dynamic rupture simulations are computationally expensive, we test several kinematic source approximations designed to emulate the observed dynamic behavior. When simplifying the rough-fault geometry, we find that perturbations in local moment tensor orientation are important, while perturbations in local source location are not. Thus, a planar fault can be assumed if the local strike, dip, and rake are maintained. We observe that dynamic rake angle variations are anti-correlated with the local dip angles. Testing two parameterizations of dynamically consistent Yoffe-type source-time function, we show that the seismic wavefield of the approximated kinematic ruptures well reproduces the radiated seismic waves of the complete dynamic source process. This finding opens a new avenue for an improved pseudo-dynamic source characterization that captures the effects of fault roughness on earthquake rupture evolution. By including also the correlations between kinematic source parameters, we outline a new pseudo-dynamic rupture modeling approach for broadband ground-motion simulation.

Modeling Creep Effects in Advanced SiC/SiC Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, Jerry; DiCarlo, James

2006-01-01

Because advanced SiC/SiC composites are projected to be used for aerospace components with large thermal gradients at high temperatures, efforts are on-going at NASA Glenn to develop approaches for modeling the anticipated creep behavior of these materials and its subsequent effects on such key composite properties as internal residual stress, proportional limit stress, ultimate tensile strength, and rupture life. Based primarily on in-plane creep data for 2D panels, this presentation describes initial modeling progress at applied composite stresses below matrix cracking for some high performance SiC/SiC composite systems recently developed at NASA. Studies are described to develop creep and rupture models using empirical, mechanical analog, and mechanistic approaches, and to implement them into finite element codes for improved component design and life modeling

Salton Trough Post-seismic Afterslip, Viscoelastic Response, and Contribution to Regional Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, J. W.; Donnellan, A.; Lyzenga, G. A.

2012-12-01

The El Mayor-Cucapah M7.2 April 4 2010 earthquake in Baja California may have affected accumulated hazard to Southern California cities due to loading of regional faults including the Elsinore, San Jacinto and southern San Andreas, faults which already have over a century of tectonic loading. We examine changes observed via multiple seismic and geodetic techniques, including micro seismicity and proposed seismicity-based indicators of hazard, high-quality fault models, the Plate Boundary Observatory GNSS array (with 174 stations showing post-seismic transients with greater than 1 mm amplitude), and interferometric radar maps from UAVSAR (aircraft) flights, showing a network of aseismic fault slip events at distances up to 60 km from the end of the surface rupture. Finite element modeling is used to compute the expected coseismic motions at GPS stations with general agreement, including coseismic uplift at sites ~200 km north of the rupture. Postseismic response is also compared, with GNSS and also with the CIG software "RELAX." An initial examination of hazard is made comparing micro seismicity-based metrics, fault models, and changes to coulomb stress on nearby faults using the finite element model. Comparison of seismicity with interferograms and historic earthquakes show aseismic slip occurs on fault segments that have had earthquakes in the last 70 years, while other segments show no slip at the surface but do show high triggered seismicity. UAVSAR-based estimates of fault slip can be incorporated into the finite element model to correct Coloumb stress change.

Constraining the Source of the M w 8.1 Chiapas, Mexico Earthquake of 8 September 2017 Using Teleseismic and Tsunami Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Ishibe, Takeo; Harada, Tomoya

2018-04-01

The September 2017 Chiapas (Mexico) normal-faulting intraplate earthquake (M w 8.1) occurred within the Tehuantepec seismic gap offshore Mexico. We constrained the finite-fault slip model of this great earthquake using teleseismic and tsunami observations. First, teleseismic body-wave inversions were conducted for both steep (NP-1) and low-angle (NP-2) nodal planes for rupture velocities (V r) of 1.5-4.0 km/s. Teleseismic inversion guided us to NP-1 as the actual fault plane, but was not conclusive about the best V r. Tsunami simulations also confirmed that NP-1 is favored over NP-2 and guided the V r = 2.5 km/s as the best source model. Our model has a maximum and average slips of 13.1 and 3.7 m, respectively, over a 130 km × 80 km fault plane. Coulomb stress transfer analysis revealed that the probability for the occurrence of a future large thrust interplate earthquake at offshore of the Tehuantepec seismic gap had been increased following the 2017 Chiapas normal-faulting intraplate earthquake.

Combining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minson, Sarah E.; Wu, Stephen; Beck, James L; Heaton, Thomas H.

2017-01-01

The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real‐time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point source. Other EEW algorithms use finite rupture models or may directly estimate ground motion without first solving for an earthquake source. EEW performance could be improved if the information from these diverse and independent prediction models could be combined into one unified, ground‐motion prediction. In this article, we set the forecast shaking at each location as the common ground to combine all these predictions and introduce a Bayesian approach to creating better ground‐motion predictions. We also describe how this methodology could be used to build a new generation of EEW systems that provide optimal decisions customized for each user based on the user’s individual false‐alarm tolerance and the time necessary for that user to react.

Azimuthal Dependence of the Ground Motion Variability from Scenario Modeling of the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa, California, Earthquake Using an Advanced Kinematic Source Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallovič, F.

2017-09-01

Strong ground motion simulations require physically plausible earthquake source model. Here, I present the application of such a kinematic model introduced originally by Ruiz et al. (Geophys J Int 186:226-244, 2011). The model is constructed to inherently provide synthetics with the desired omega-squared spectral decay in the full frequency range. The source is composed of randomly distributed overlapping subsources with fractal number-size distribution. The position of the subsources can be constrained by prior knowledge of major asperities (stemming, e.g., from slip inversions), or can be completely random. From earthquake physics point of view, the model includes positive correlation between slip and rise time as found in dynamic source simulations. Rupture velocity and rise time follows local S-wave velocity profile, so that the rupture slows down and rise times increase close to the surface, avoiding unrealistically strong ground motions. Rupture velocity can also have random variations, which result in irregular rupture front while satisfying the causality principle. This advanced kinematic broadband source model is freely available and can be easily incorporated into any numerical wave propagation code, as the source is described by spatially distributed slip rate functions, not requiring any stochastic Green's functions. The source model has been previously validated against the observed data due to the very shallow unilateral 2014 Mw6 South Napa, California, earthquake; the model reproduces well the observed data including the near-fault directivity (Seism Res Lett 87:2-14, 2016). The performance of the source model is shown here on the scenario simulations for the same event. In particular, synthetics are compared with existing ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), emphasizing the azimuthal dependence of the between-event ground motion variability. I propose a simple model reproducing the azimuthal variations of the between-event ground motion variability, providing an insight into possible refinement of GMPEs' functional forms.

Real-time GPS integration for prototype earthquake early warning and near-field imaging of the earthquake rupture process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudnut, K. W.; Given, D.; King, N. E.; Lisowski, M.; Langbein, J. O.; Murray-Moraleda, J. R.; Gomberg, J. S.

2011-12-01

Over the past several years, USGS has developed the infrastructure for integrating real-time GPS with seismic data in order to improve our ability to respond to earthquakes and volcanic activity. As part of this effort, we have tested real-time GPS processing software components , and identified the most robust and scalable options. Simultaneously, additional near-field monitoring stations have been built using a new station design that combines dual-frequency GPS with high quality strong-motion sensors and dataloggers. Several existing stations have been upgraded in this way, using USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds in southern California. In particular, existing seismic stations have been augmented by the addition of GPS and vice versa. The focus of new instrumentation as well as datalogger and telemetry upgrades to date has been along the southern San Andreas fault in hopes of 1) capturing a large and potentially damaging rupture in progress and augmenting inputs to earthquake early warning systems, and 2) recovering high quality recordings on scale of large dynamic displacement waveforms, static displacements and immediate and long-term post-seismic transient deformation. Obtaining definitive records of large ground motions close to a large San Andreas or Cascadia rupture (or volcanic activity) would be a fundamentally important contribution to understanding near-source large ground motions and the physics of earthquakes, including the rupture process and friction associated with crack propagation and healing. Soon, telemetry upgrades will be completed in Cascadia and throughout the Plate Boundary Observatory as well. By collaborating with other groups on open-source automation system development, we will be ready to process the newly available real-time GPS data streams and to fold these data in with existing strong-motion and other seismic data. Data from these same stations will also serve the very practical purpose of enabling earthquake early warning and greatly improving rapid finite-fault source modeling. Multiple uses of the effectively very broad-band data obtained by these stations, for operational and research purposes, are bound to occur especially because all data will be freely, openly and instantly available.

Multi-Fault Rupture Scenarios in the Brawley Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyriakopoulos, C.; Oglesby, D. D.; Rockwell, T. K.; Meltzner, A. J.; Barall, M.

2017-12-01

Dynamic rupture complexity is strongly affected by both the geometric configuration of a network of faults and pre-stress conditions. Between those two, the geometric configuration is more likely to be anticipated prior to an event. An important factor in the unpredictability of the final rupture pattern of a group of faults is the time-dependent interaction between them. Dynamic rupture models provide a means to investigate this otherwise inscrutable processes. The Brawley Seismic Zone in Southern California is an area in which this approach might be important for inferring potential earthquake sizes and rupture patterns. Dynamic modeling can illuminate how the main faults in this area, the Southern San Andreas (SSAF) and Imperial faults, might interact with the intersecting cross faults, and how the cross faults may modulate rupture on the main faults. We perform 3D finite element modeling of potential earthquakes in this zone assuming an extended array of faults (Figure). Our results include a wide range of ruptures and fault behaviors depending on assumptions about nucleation location, geometric setup, pre-stress conditions, and locking depth. For example, in the majority of our models the cross faults do not strongly participate in the rupture process, giving the impression that they are not typically an aid or an obstacle to the rupture propagation. However, in some cases, particularly when rupture proceeds slowly on the main faults, the cross faults indeed can participate with significant slip, and can even cause rupture termination on one of the main faults. Furthermore, in a complex network of faults we should not preclude the possibility of a large event nucleating on a smaller fault (e.g. a cross fault) and eventually promoting rupture on the main structure. Recent examples include the 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield (New Zealand) and Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquakes, where rupture started on a smaller adjacent segment and later cascaded into a larger event. For that reason, we are investigating scenarios of a moderate rupture on a cross fault, and determining conditions under which the rupture will propagate onto the adjacent SSAF. Our investigation will provide fundamental insights that may help us interpret faulting behaviors in other areas, such as the complex Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikoura (New Zealand) earthquake.

A global search inversion for earthquake kinematic rupture history: Application to the 2000 western Tottori, Japan earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piatanesi, A.; Cirella, A.; Spudich, P.; Cocco, M.

2007-01-01

We present a two-stage nonlinear technique to invert strong motions records and geodetic data to retrieve the rupture history of an earthquake on a finite fault. To account for the actual rupture complexity, the fault parameters are spatially variable peak slip velocity, slip direction, rupture time and risetime. The unknown parameters are given at the nodes of the subfaults, whereas the parameters within a subfault are allowed to vary through a bilinear interpolation of the nodal values. The forward modeling is performed with a discrete wave number technique, whose Green's functions include the complete response of the vertically varying Earth structure. During the first stage, an algorithm based on the heat-bath simulated annealing generates an ensemble of models that efficiently sample the good data-fitting regions of parameter space. In the second stage (appraisal), the algorithm performs a statistical analysis of the model ensemble and computes a weighted mean model and its standard deviation. This technique, rather than simply looking at the best model, extracts the most stable features of the earthquake rupture that are consistent with the data and gives an estimate of the variability of each model parameter. We present some synthetic tests to show the effectiveness of the method and its robustness to uncertainty of the adopted crustal model. Finally, we apply this inverse technique to the well recorded 2000 western Tottori, Japan, earthquake (Mw 6.6); we confirm that the rupture process is characterized by large slip (3-4 m) at very shallow depths but, differently from previous studies, we imaged a new slip patch (2-2.5 m) located deeper, between 14 and 18 km depth. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

An Introduction to Vortex Breakdown and Vortex Core Bursting (Introduction a la Rupture et a l’Eclatement du Noyau des Vortex).

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

solved by the use of finite - .- core vortex filament models (Chorin and Bernard, 1973). A recent paper by Stremel (1984) briefly reviewed this...history of vortex sheet numerical modeling and presented a ’state of the art’ numerical technique. Stremel compared his numerical results with experimental

Real-time Estimation of Fault Rupture Extent for Recent Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

2009-12-01

Current earthquake early warning systems assume point source models for the rupture. However, for large earthquakes, the fault rupture length can be of the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, and the prediction of ground motion at a site requires the approximated knowledge of the rupture geometry. Early warning information based on a point source model may underestimate the ground motion at a site, if a station is close to the fault but distant from the epicenter. We developed an empirical function to classify seismic records into near-source (NS) or far-source (FS) records based on the past strong motion records (Yamada et al., 2007). Here, we defined the near-source region as an area with a fault rupture distance less than 10km. If we have ground motion records at a station, the probability that the station is located in the near-source region is; P = 1/(1+exp(-f)) f = 6.046log10(Za) + 7.885log10(Hv) - 27.091 where Za and Hv denote the peak values of the vertical acceleration and horizontal velocity, respectively. Each observation provides the probability that the station is located in near-source region, so the resolution of the proposed method depends on the station density. The information of the fault rupture location is a group of points where the stations are located. However, for practical purposes, the 2-dimensional configuration of the fault is required to compute the ground motion at a site. In this study, we extend the methodology of NS/FS classification to characterize 2-dimensional fault geometries and apply them to strong motion data observed in recent large earthquakes. We apply a cosine-shaped smoothing function to the probability distribution of near-source stations, and convert the point fault location to 2-dimensional fault information. The estimated rupture geometry for the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake 10 seconds after the origin time is shown in Figure 1. Furthermore, we illustrate our method with strong motion data of the 2007 Noto-hanto earthquake, 2008 Iwate-Miyagi earthquake, and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The on-going rupture extent can be estimated for all datasets as the rupture propagates. For earthquakes with magnitude about 7.0, the determination of the fault parameters converges to the final geometry within 10 seconds.

Nankai-Tokai subduction hazard for catastrophe risk modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spurr, D. D.

2010-12-01

The historical record of Nankai subduction zone earthquakes includes nine event sequences over the last 1300 years. Typical characteristic behaviour is evident, with segments rupturing either co-seismically or as two large earthquakes less than 3 yrs apart (active phase), followed by periods of low seismicity lasting 90 - 150 yrs or more. Despite the long historical record, the recurrence behaviour and consequent seismic hazard remain uncertain and controversial. In 2005 the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) published models for hundreds of faults as part of an official Japanese seismic hazard map. The HERP models have been widely adopted in part or full both within Japan and by the main international catastrophe risk model companies. The time-dependent recurrence modelling we adopt for the Nankai faults departs considerably from HERP in three main areas: ■ A “Linked System” (LS) source model is used to simulate the strong correlation between segment ruptures evident in the historical record, whereas the HERP recurrence estimates assume the Nankai, Tonankai and Tokai segments rupture independently. The LS component models all historical events with a common rupture recurrence cycle for the three segments. System rupture probabilities are calculated assuming BPT behaviour and parameter uncertainties assessed from the full 1300 yr historical record. ■ An independent, “Tokai Only” (TO) rupture source is used specifically to model potential “Tokai only” earthquakes. There are widely diverging views on the possibility of this segment rupturing independently. Although all historical Tokai ruptures appear to have been composite Tonankai -Tokai earthquakes, the available data do not preclude the possibility of future “Tokai only” events. The HERP model also includes “Tokai only” earthquakes but the recurrence parameters are based on historical composite Tonankai -Tokai ruptures and do not appear to recognise the complex tectonic environment in the Tokai area. ■ For the Nankai and Tonankai segments only, HERP assumed Time-Predictable (TP) recurrence behaviour. The resulting calculated 30 and 50 year rupture probabilities are considerably higher than standard renewal model estimates as used in the adopted model. While perhaps more contentious, the weight of evidence available does not appear to be consistent with TP behaviour. For the adopted modelling the estimated probabilities of no Nankai segment rupture within the next 30 & 50 years are 56% & 27% respectively. The disparity between the models is highlighted by the much lower estimates obtained by HERP (2.5% & 0.039% respectively as at 2006). Even for just the Nankai and Tonankai segments (ie. ignoring Tokai), HERP estimated only 1.7% probability of no rupture in 50yrs. These estimates can be contrasted with the fact that in 2056 (50 yrs from 2006), the elapsed time since the start of the last rupture cycle (112yrs) will still be 5 yrs short of the historical mean recurrence interval since 1360. Net effects on nation-wide catastrophe risk estimates for all earthquake sources depend on modelled exposure distributions but can be as much as a factor of two. The differences are important as they impact on multi-billion dollar international risk transfer programs.

Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Radiation on Rough Faults for Simulation-Based PSHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. M.; Galis, M.; Thingbaijam, K. K. S.; Vyas, J. C.; Dunham, E. M.

2017-12-01

Simulation-based ground-motion predictions may augment PSHA studies in data-poor regions or provide additional shaking estimations, incl. seismic waveforms, for critical facilities. Validation and calibration of such simulation approaches, based on observations and GMPE's, is important for engineering applications, while seismologists push to include the precise physics of the earthquake rupture process and seismic wave propagation in 3D heterogeneous Earth. Geological faults comprise both large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness that determine the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process and its radiated seismic wavefield. We investigate how different parameterizations of fractal fault roughness affect the rupture evolution and resulting near-fault ground motions. Rupture incoherence induced by fault roughness generates realistic ω-2 decay for high-frequency displacement amplitude spectra. Waveform characteristics and GMPE-based comparisons corroborate that these rough-fault rupture simulations generate realistic synthetic seismogram for subsequent engineering application. Since dynamic rupture simulations are computationally expensive, we develop kinematic approximations that emulate the observed dynamics. Simplifying the rough-fault geometry, we find that perturbations in local moment tensor orientation are important, while perturbations in local source location are not. Thus, a planar fault can be assumed if the local strike, dip, and rake are maintained. The dynamic rake angle variations are anti-correlated with local dip angles. Based on a dynamically consistent Yoffe source-time function, we show that the seismic wavefield of the approximated kinematic rupture well reproduces the seismic radiation of the full dynamic source process. Our findings provide an innovative pseudo-dynamic source characterization that captures fault roughness effects on rupture dynamics. Including the correlations between kinematic source parameters, we present a new pseudo-dynamic rupture modeling approach for computing broadband ground-motion time-histories for simulation-based PSHA

Pore pressure may control rupture propagation of the 2001 Mw=7.8 Kokoxili earthquake from the Kunlun fault to the Kunlun Pass fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, J.; Wang, W.; He, J.

2016-12-01

The 2001 Mw=7.8 Kokoxili earthquake nucleated on the west-east tending Kunlun strike-slip fault in center of the Tibetan plateau. When the rupture propagated eastward near the Xidatan segment of the Kunlun fault, this earthquake jumped to the Kunlun Pass fault, a less matured fault that, due to the geometric orientation, was obviously clamped by the coseismic deformation before its rupture. To investigate the possible mechanism for the rupture jump, we updated the coseismic rupture model from a joint inversion of the geological, geodetic and seismic wave data. Constrained with the rupture process, a three-dimensional finite element model was developed to calculate the failure stress from elastic and poroelastic deformation of the crust during the rupture propagation. Results show that just before the rupture reached the conjunction of the Xidatan segment and the Kunlun Pass fault, the failure stress induced by elastic deformation is indeed larger on Xidatan segment of the Kunlun fault than on the Kunlun Pass fault. However, if the pore pressure resulted from undrained poroelastic deformation was invoked, the failure stress is significantly increased on the Kunlun Pass fault. Given a reasonable bound on fault friction and on poroelastic parameters, it can be seen that the poroelastic failure stress is 0.3-0.9 Mpa greater on the Kunlun Pass fault than on Xidatan segment of the Kunlun fault. We therefore argue that during the rupture process of the 2001 Mw=7.8 Kokoxili earthquake, pore pressure may play an important role on controlling the rupture propagation from the Kunlun fault to the Kunlun Pass fault.

Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of unilateral dynamic rupture propagation along very-long reverse faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, S.

2017-12-01

For some great earthquakes, dynamic rupture propagates unilaterally along a horizontal direction of very-long reverse faults (e.g., the Mw9.1 Sumatra earthquake in 2004, the Mw8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, and the Mw8.8 Maule earthquake in 2010, etc.). It seems that barriers or creeping sections may not lay along the opposite region of the co-seismically ruptured direction. In fact, in the case of Sumatra, the Mw8.6 earthquake occurred in the opposite region only three months after the mainshock. Mechanism of unilateral mode-II rupture along a material interface has been investigated theoretically and numerically. For mode-II rupture propagating along a material interface, an analytical solution implies that co-seismic stress perturbation depends on the rupture direction (Weertman, 1980 JGR; Hirano & Yamashita, 2016 BSSA), and numerical modeling of plastic yielding contributes to simulating the unilateral rupture (DeDonteny et al., 2011 JGR). However, mode-III rupture may dominate for the very-long reverse faults, and it can be shown that stress perturbation due to mode-III rupture does not depend on the rupture direction. Hence, an effect of the material interface is insufficient to understand the mechanism of unilateral rupture along the very-long reverse faults. In this study, I consider a two-dimensional bimaterial system with interfacial dynamic mode-III rupture under an obliquely pre-stressed configuration (i.e., the maximum shear direction of the background stress is inclined from the interfacial fault). First, I derived an analytical solution of regularized elastic stress field around a steady-state interfacial slip pulse using the method of Rice et al. (2005 BSSA). Then I found that the total stress, which is the sum of the background stress and co-seismic stress perturbation, depends on the rupture direction even in the mode-III case. Second, I executed a finite difference numerical simulation with a plastic yielding model of Andrews (1978 JGR; 2005 JGR) and succeeded in a simulation of unilateral rupture propagation in some parameter ranges (see figure). This unilateral rupture might be caused by energy dissipation due to the plastic yielding process that concentrates in the vicinity of only one rupture tip depending on the rupture direction.

Ground-motion signature of dynamic ruptures on rough faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. Martin; Galis, Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Vyas, Jagdish C.

2016-04-01

Natural earthquakes occur on faults characterized by large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness. This multi-scale geometrical complexity controls the dynamic rupture process, and hence strongly affects the radiated seismic waves and near-field shaking. For a fault system with given segmentation, the question arises what are the conditions for producing large-magnitude multi-segment ruptures, as opposed to smaller single-segment events. Similarly, for variable degrees of roughness, ruptures may be arrested prematurely or may break the entire fault. In addition, fault roughness induces rupture incoherence that determines the level of high-frequency radiation. Using HPC-enabled dynamic-rupture simulations, we generate physically self-consistent rough-fault earthquake scenarios (M~6.8) and their associated near-source seismic radiation. Because these computations are too expensive to be conducted routinely for simulation-based seismic hazard assessment, we thrive to develop an effective pseudo-dynamic source characterization that produces (almost) the same ground-motion characteristics. Therefore, we examine how variable degrees of fault roughness affect rupture properties and the seismic wavefield, and develop a planar-fault kinematic source representation that emulates the observed dynamic behaviour. We propose an effective workflow for improved pseudo-dynamic source modelling that incorporates rough-fault effects and its associated high-frequency radiation in broadband ground-motion computation for simulation-based seismic hazard assessment.

Head-on collision of drops: A numerical investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nobari, M. R.; Jan, Y.-J.; Tryggvason, G.

1993-01-01

The head-on collision of equal sized drops is studied by full numerical simulations. The Navier-Stokes equations are solved for fluid motion both inside and outside the drops using a front tracking/finite difference technique. The drops are accelerated toward each other by a body force that is turned off before the drops collide. When the drops collide, the fluid between them is pushed outward leaving a thin later bounded by the drop surface. This layer gets progressively thinner as the drops continue to deform and in several of the calculations this double layer is artificially removed once it is thin enough, thus modeling rupture. If no rupture takes place, the drops always rebound, but if the film is ruptured the drops may coalesce permanently or coalesce temporarily and then split again.

Numerical simulations of earthquakes and the dynamics of fault systems using the Finite Element method.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, L. M.; Mora, P.; Weatherley, D.; Gross, L.; Xing, H.

2006-12-01

Simulations using the Finite Element method are widely used in many engineering applications and for the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). Computational models based on the solution of PDEs play a key role in earth systems simulations. We present numerical modelling of crustal fault systems where the dynamic elastic wave equation is solved using the Finite Element method. This is achieved using a high level computational modelling language, escript, available as open source software from ACcESS (Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator), the University of Queensland. Escript is an advanced geophysical simulation software package developed at ACcESS which includes parallel equation solvers, data visualisation and data analysis software. The escript library was implemented to develop a flexible Finite Element model which reliably simulates the mechanism of faulting and the physics of earthquakes. Both 2D and 3D elastodynamic models are being developed to study the dynamics of crustal fault systems. Our final goal is to build a flexible model which can be applied to any fault system with user-defined geometry and input parameters. To study the physics of earthquake processes, two different time scales must be modelled, firstly the quasi-static loading phase which gradually increases stress in the system (~100years), and secondly the dynamic rupture process which rapidly redistributes stress in the system (~100secs). We will discuss the solution of the time-dependent elastic wave equation for an arbitrary fault system using escript. This involves prescribing the correct initial stress distribution in the system to simulate the quasi-static loading of faults to failure; determining a suitable frictional constitutive law which accurately reproduces the dynamics of the stick/slip instability at the faults; and using a robust time integration scheme. These dynamic models generate data and information that can be used for earthquake forecasting.

Stochastic Earthquake Rupture Modeling Using Nonparametric Co-Regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Kyungbook; Song, Seok Goo

2017-09-01

Accurate predictions of the intensity and variability of ground motions are essential in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment. Advanced simulation-based ground motion prediction methods have been proposed to complement the empirical approach, which suffers from the lack of observed ground motion data, especially in the near-source region for large events. It is important to quantify the variability of the earthquake rupture process for future events and to produce a number of rupture scenario models to capture the variability in simulation-based ground motion predictions. In this study, we improved the previously developed stochastic earthquake rupture modeling method by applying the nonparametric co-regionalization, which was proposed in geostatistics, to the correlation models estimated from dynamically derived earthquake rupture models. The nonparametric approach adopted in this study is computationally efficient and, therefore, enables us to simulate numerous rupture scenarios, including large events ( M > 7.0). It also gives us an opportunity to check the shape of true input correlation models in stochastic modeling after being deformed for permissibility. We expect that this type of modeling will improve our ability to simulate a wide range of rupture scenario models and thereby predict ground motions and perform seismic hazard assessment more accurately.

Mitigating artifacts in back-projection source imaging with implications for frequency-dependent properties of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Lingsen; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Luo, Yingdi; Wu, Wenbo; Ni, Sidao

2012-12-01

Comparing teleseismic array back-projection source images of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake with results from static and kinematic finite source inversions has revealed little overlap between the regions of high- and low-frequency slip. Motivated by this interesting observation, back-projection studies extended to intermediate frequencies, down to about 0.1 Hz, have suggested that a progressive transition of rupture properties as a function of frequency is observable. Here, by adapting the concept of array response function to non-stationary signals, we demonstrate that the "swimming artifact", a systematic drift resulting from signal non-stationarity, induces significant bias on beamforming back-projection at low frequencies. We introduce a "reference window strategy" into the multitaper-MUSIC back-projection technique and significantly mitigate the "swimming artifact" at high frequencies (1 s to 4 s). At lower frequencies, this modification yields notable, but significantly smaller, artifacts than time-domain stacking. We perform extensive synthetic tests that include a 3D regional velocity model for Japan. We analyze the recordings of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake at the USArray and at the European array at periods from 1 s to 16 s. The migration of the source location as a function of period, regardless of the back-projection methods, has characteristics that are consistent with the expected effect of the "swimming artifact". In particular, the apparent up-dip migration as a function of frequency obtained with the USArray can be explained by the "swimming artifact". This indicates that the most substantial frequency-dependence of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake source occurs at periods longer than 16 s. Thus, low-frequency back-projection needs to be further tested and validated in order to contribute to the characterization of frequency-dependent rupture properties.

W-phase estimation of first-order rupture distribution for megathrust earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, Roberto; Cummins, Phil; Dettmer, Jan

2014-05-01

Estimating the rupture pattern for large earthquakes during the first hour after the origin time can be crucial for rapid impact assessment and tsunami warning. However, the estimation of coseismic slip distribution models generally involves complex methodologies that are difficult to implement rapidly. Further, while model parameter uncertainty can be crucial for meaningful estimation, they are often ignored. In this work we develop a finite fault inversion for megathrust earthquakes which rapidly generates good first order estimates and uncertainties of spatial slip distributions. The algorithm uses W-phase waveforms and a linear automated regularization approach to invert for rupture models of some recent megathrust earthquakes. The W phase is a long period (100-1000 s) wave which arrives together with the P wave. Because it is fast, has small amplitude and a long-period character, the W phase is regularly used to estimate point source moment tensors by the NEIC and PTWC, among others, within an hour of earthquake occurrence. We use W-phase waveforms processed in a manner similar to that used for such point-source solutions. The inversion makes use of 3 component W-phase records retrieved from the Global Seismic Network. The inverse problem is formulated by a multiple time window method, resulting in a linear over-parametrized problem. The over-parametrization is addressed by Tikhonov regularization and regularization parameters are chosen according to the discrepancy principle by grid search. Noise on the data is addressed by estimating the data covariance matrix from data residuals. The matrix is obtained by starting with an a priori covariance matrix and then iteratively updating the matrix based on the residual errors of consecutive inversions. Then, a covariance matrix for the parameters is computed using a Bayesian approach. The application of this approach to recent megathrust earthquakes produces models which capture the most significant features of their slip distributions. Also, reliable solutions are generally obtained with data in a 30-minute window following the origin time, suggesting that a real-time system could obtain solutions in less than one hour following the origin time.

Dynamics of a pre-lens tear film after a blink: Model, evolution, and rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usha, R.; Anjalaiah, Sanyasiraju, Y. V. S. S.

2013-11-01

A mathematical model is developed to investigate the dynamics and rupture of a pre-lens tear film on a contact lens. The contact lens is modeled as a saturated porous medium of constant, finite thickness and is described by the Darcy-Brinkman equations with stress-jump condition at the interface. The model incorporates the influence of capillarity, gravitational drainage, contact lens properties such as the permeability, the porosity, and the thickness of the contact lens on the evolution and rupture of a pre-lens tear film, when the eyelid has opened after a blink. Two models are derived for the evolution of a pre-lens tear film thickness using lubrication theory and are solved numerically; the first uses shear-free surface condition and the second, the tangentially immobile free surface condition. The results reveal that life span of a pre-lens tear film is longer on a thinner contact lens for all values of permeability and porosity parameter considered. An increase in permeability of contact lens, porosity or stress-jump parameter increases the rate of thinning of the film and advances the rupture time. The viscous-viscous interaction between the porous contact lens and the pre-lens tear film increases the resistance offered by the frictional forces to the rate of thinning of pre-lens tear film. This slows down the thinning process and hence delays the rupture of the film as compared to that predicted by the models of Nong and Anderson [SIAM. J. Appl. Math. 70, 2771-2795 (2010)] derived in the framework of Darcy model.

Impact of wall thickness and saccular geometry on the computational wall stress of descending thoracic aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Shang, Eric K; Nathan, Derek P; Sprinkle, Shanna R; Fairman, Ronald M; Bavaria, Joseph E; Gorman, Robert C; Gorman, Joseph H; Jackson, Benjamin M

2013-09-10

Wall stress calculated using finite element analysis has been used to predict rupture risk of aortic aneurysms. Prior models often assume uniform aortic wall thickness and fusiform geometry. We examined the effects of including local wall thickness, intraluminal thrombus, calcifications, and saccular geometry on peak wall stress (PWS) in finite element analysis of descending thoracic aortic aneurysms. Computed tomographic angiography of descending thoracic aortic aneurysms (n=10 total, 5 fusiform and 5 saccular) underwent 3-dimensional reconstruction with custom algorithms. For each aneurysm, an initial model was constructed with uniform wall thickness. Experimental models explored the addition of variable wall thickness, calcifications, and intraluminal thrombus. Each model was loaded with 120 mm Hg pressure, and von Mises PWS was computed. The mean PWS of uniform wall thickness models was 410 ± 111 kPa. The imposition of variable wall thickness increased PWS (481 ± 126 kPa, P<0.001). Although the addition of calcifications was not statistically significant (506 ± 126 kPa, P=0.07), the addition of intraluminal thrombus to variable wall thickness (359 ± 86 kPa, P ≤ 0.001) reduced PWS. A final model incorporating all features also reduced PWS (368 ± 88 kPa, P<0.001). Saccular geometry did not increase diameter-normalized stress in the final model (77 ± 7 versus 67 ± 12 kPa/cm, P=0.22). Incorporation of local wall thickness can significantly increase PWS in finite element analysis models of thoracic aortic aneurysms. Incorporating variable wall thickness, intraluminal thrombus, and calcifications significantly impacts computed PWS of thoracic aneurysms; sophisticated models may, therefore, be more accurate in assessing rupture risk. Saccular aneurysms did not demonstrate a significantly higher normalized PWS than fusiform aneurysms.

Finite element model of thermal processes in retinal photocoagulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sramek, Christopher; Paulus, Yannis M.; Nomoto, Hiroyuki; Huie, Phil; Palanker, Daniel

2009-02-01

Short duration (< 20 ms) pulses are desirable in patterned scanning laser photocoagulation to confine thermal damage to the photoreceptor layer, decrease overall treatment time and reduce pain. However, short exposures have a smaller therapeutic window (defined as the ratio of rupture threshold power to that of light coagulation). We have constructed a finite-element computational model of retinal photocoagulation to predict spatial damage and improve the therapeutic window. Model parameters were inferred from experimentally measured absorption characteristics of ocular tissues, as well as the thresholds of vaporization, coagulation, and retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) damage. Calculated lesion diameters showed good agreement with histological measurements over a wide range of pulse durations and powers.

Source Parameters and Rupture Directivities of Earthquakes Within the Mendocino Triple Junction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, A. A.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

The Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), a region in the Cascadia subduction zone, produces a sizable amount of earthquakes each year. Direct observations of the rupture properties are difficult to achieve due to the small magnitudes of most of these earthquakes and lack of offshore observations. The Cascadia Initiative (CI) project provides opportunities to look at the earthquakes in detail. Here we look at the transform plate boundary fault located in the MTJ, and measure source parameters of Mw≥4 earthquakes from both time-domain deconvolution and spectral analysis using empirical Green's function (EGF) method. The second-moment method is used to infer rupture length, width, and rupture velocity from apparent source duration measured at different stations. Brune's source model is used to infer corner frequency and spectral complexity for stacked spectral ratio. EGFs are selected based on their location relative to the mainshock, as well as the magnitude difference compared to the mainshock. For the transform fault, we first look at the largest earthquake recorded during the Year 4 CI array, a Mw5.72 event that occurred in January of 2015, and select two EGFs, a Mw1.75 and a Mw1.73 located within 5 km of the mainshock. This earthquake is characterized with at least two sub-events, with total duration of about 0.3 second and rupture length of about 2.78 km. The earthquake is rupturing towards west along the transform fault, and both source durations and corner frequencies show strong azimuthal variations, with anti-correlation between duration and corner frequency. The stacked spectral ratio from multiple stations with the Mw1.73 EGF event shows deviation from pure Brune's source model following the definition from Uchide and Imanishi [2016], likely due to near-field recordings with rupture complexity. We will further analyze this earthquake using more EGF events to test the reliability and stability of the results, and further analyze three other Mw≥4 earthquakes within the array.

A prototype of the procedure of strong ground motion prediction for intraslab earthquake based on characterized source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, T.; Asano, K.; Sekiguchi, H.

2011-12-01

We propose a prototype of the procedure to construct source models for strong motion prediction during intraslab earthquakes based on the characterized source model (Irikura and Miyake, 2011). The key is the characterized source model which is based on the empirical scaling relationships for intraslab earthquakes and involve the correspondence between the SMGA (strong motion generation area, Miyake et al., 2003) and the asperity (large slip area). Iwata and Asano (2011) obtained the empirical relationships of the rupture area (S) and the total asperity area (Sa) to the seismic moment (Mo) as follows, with assuming power of 2/3 dependency of S and Sa on M0, S (km**2) = 6.57×10**(-11)×Mo**(2/3) (Nm) (1) Sa (km**2) = 1.04 ×10**(-11)×Mo**(2/3) (Nm) (2). Iwata and Asano (2011) also pointed out that the position and the size of SMGA approximately corresponds to the asperity area for several intraslab events. Based on the empirical relationships, we gave a procedure for constructing source models of intraslab earthquakes for strong motion prediction. [1] Give the seismic moment, Mo. [2] Obtain the total rupture area and the total asperity area according to the empirical scaling relationships between S, Sa, and Mo given by Iwata and Asano (2011). [3] Square rupture area and asperities are assumed. [4] The source mechanism is assumed to be the same as that of small events in the source region. [5] Plural scenarios including variety of the number of asperities and rupture starting points are prepared. We apply this procedure by simulating strong ground motions for several observed events for confirming the methodology.

Influence of model parameters on synthesized high-frequency strong-motion waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zadonina, Ekaterina; Caldeira, Bento; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Borges, José F.

2010-05-01

Waveform modeling is an important and helpful instrument of modern seismology that may provide valuable information. However, synthesizing seismograms requires to define many parameters, which differently affect the final result. Such parameters may be: the design of the grid, the structure model, the source time functions, the source mechanism, the rupture velocity. Variations in parameters may produce significantly different seismograms. We synthesize seismograms from a hypothetical earthquake and numerically estimate the influence of some of the used parameters. Firstly, we present the results for high-frequency near-fault waveforms obtained from defined model by changing tested parameters. Secondly, we present the results of a quantitative comparison of contributions from certain parameters on synthetic waveforms by using misfit criteria. For the synthesis of waveforms we used 2D/3D elastic finite-difference wave propagation code E3D [1] based on the elastodynamic formulation of the wave equation on a staggered grid. This code gave us the opportunity to perform all needed manipulations using a computer cluster. To assess the obtained results, we use misfit criteria [2] where seismograms are compared in time-frequency and phase by applying a continuous wavelet transform to the seismic signal. [1] - Larsen, S. and C.A. Schultz (1995). ELAS3D: 2D/3D elastic finite-difference wave propagation code, Technical Report No. UCRL-MA-121792, 19 pp. [2] - Kristekova, M., Kristek, J., Moczo, P., Day, S.M., 2006. Misfit criteria for quantitative comparison of seismograms. Bul. of Seis. Soc. of Am. 96(5), 1836-1850.

To what extent the repeating earthquakes repeated? - Analyses of 1982 and 2008 Ibaraki-ken-oki M7 class earthquakes using strong motion records -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takiguchi, M.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.

2010-12-01

Two M7 class subduction zone earthquakes have occurred in the Ibaraki-ken-oki region, northeast Japan, at 23:23 on July 23, 1982 JST (Mw7.0; 1982MS) and at 01:45 on May 8, 2008 JST (Mw6.8; 2008MS). It has been reported that, from the results of the teleseismic waveform inversion, the rupture of the asperity repeated (HERP, 2010). We estimated the source processes of these earthquakes in detail by analyzing the strong motion records and discussed how much the source characteristics of the two earthquakes repeated. First, we estimated the source model of 2008MS following the method of Miyake et al. (2003). The best-fit set of the model parameters was determined by a grid search using forward modeling of broad-band ground motions. A single 12.6 km × 12.6 km rectangular Strong Motion Generation Area (SMGA, Miyake et al., 2003) was estimated. The rupture of the SMGA of 2008MS (2008SMGA) started from the hypocenter and propagated mainly to northeast. Next, we estimated the source model of 1982MS. We compared the waveforms of 1982MS and 2008MS recorded at the same stations and found the initial rupture phase before the main rupture phase on the waveforms of 1982MS. The travel time analysis showed that the main rupture of the 1982MS started approximately 33 km west of the hypocenter at about 11s after the origin time. The main rupture starting point was located inside 2008SMGA, suggesting that the two SMGAs overlapped in part. The seismic moment ratio of 1982MS to 2008MS was approximately 1.6, and we also found the observed acceleration amplitude spectra of 1982MS were 1.5 times higher than those of 2008MS in the available frequency range. We performed the waveform modeling for 1982MS with a constraint of these ratios. A single rectangular SMGA (1982SMGA) was estimated for the main rupture, which had the same size and the same rupture propagation direction as those of 2008SMGA. However, the estimated stress drop or average slip amount of 1982SMGA was 1.5 times larger than those of 2008SMGA.

A support-operator method for 3-D rupture dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ely, Geoffrey P.; Day, Steven M.; Minster, Jean-Bernard

2009-06-01

We present a numerical method to simulate spontaneous shear crack propagation within a heterogeneous, 3-D, viscoelastic medium. Wave motions are computed on a logically rectangular hexahedral mesh, using the generalized finite-difference method of Support Operators (SOM). This approach enables modelling of non-planar surfaces and non-planar fault ruptures. Our implementation, the Support Operator Rupture Dynamics (SORD) code, is highly scalable, enabling large-scale, multiprocessors calculations. The fault surface is modelled by coupled double nodes, where rupture occurs as dictated by the local stress conditions and a frictional failure law. The method successfully performs test problems developed for the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)/U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) dynamic earthquake rupture code validation exercise, showing good agreement with semi-analytical boundary integral method results. We undertake further dynamic rupture tests to quantify numerical errors introduced by shear deformations to the hexahedral mesh. We generate a family of meshes distorted by simple shearing, in the along-strike direction, up to a maximum of 73°. For SCEC/USGS validation problem number 3, grid-induced errors increase with mesh shear angle, with the logarithm of error approximately proportional to angle over the range tested. At 73°, rms misfits are about 10 per cent for peak slip rate, and 0.5 per cent for both rupture time and total slip, indicating that the method (which, up to now, we have applied mainly to near-vertical strike-slip faulting) is also capable of handling geometries appropriate to low-angle surface-rupturing thrust earthquakes. Additionally, we demonstrate non-planar rupture effects, by modifying the test geometry to include, respectively, cylindrical curvature and sharp kinks.

Effect of off-fault low-velocity elastic inclusions on supershear rupture dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xiao; Elbanna, A. E.

2015-10-01

Heterogeneous velocity structures are expected to affect fault rupture dynamics. To quantitatively evaluate some of these effects, we examine a model of dynamic rupture on a frictional fault embedded in an elastic full space, governed by plane strain elasticity, with a pair of off-fault inclusions that have a lower rigidity than the background medium. We solve the elastodynamic problem using the Finite Element software Pylith. The fault operates under linear slip-weakening friction law. We initiate the rupture by artificially overstressing a localized region near the left edge of the fault. We primarily consider embedded soft inclusions with 20 per cent reduction in both the pressure wave and shear wave speeds. The embedded inclusions are placed at different distances from the fault surface and have different sizes. We show that the existence of a soft inclusion may significantly shorten the transition length to supershear propagation through the Burridge-Andrews mechanism. We also observe that supershear rupture is generated at pre-stress values that are lower than what is theoretically predicted for a homogeneous medium. We discuss the implications of our results for dynamic rupture propagation in complex velocity structures as well as supershear propagation on understressed faults.

Modeling potential tsunami sources for deposits near Unalaska Island, Aleutian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Selle, S.; Gelfenbaum, G. R.

2013-12-01

In regions with little seismic data and short historical records of earthquakes, we can use preserved tsunami deposits and tsunami modeling to infer if, when and where tsunamigenic earthquakes have occurred. The Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone in the region offshore of Unalaska Island is one such region where the historical and paleo-seismicity is poorly understood. This section of the subduction zone is not thought to have ruptured historically in a large earthquake, leading some to designate the region as a seismic gap. By modeling various historical and synthetic earthquake sources, we investigate whether or not tsunamis that left deposits near Unalaska Island were generated by earthquakes rupturing through Unalaska Gap. Preliminary field investigations near the eastern end of Unalaska Island have identified paleotsunami deposits well above sea level, suggesting that multiple tsunamis in the last 5,000 years have flooded low-lying areas over 1 km inland. Other indicators of tsunami inundation, such as a breached cobble beach berm and driftwood logs stranded far inland, were tentatively attributed to the March 9, 1957 tsunami, which had reported runup of 13 to 22 meters on Umnak and Unimak Islands, to the west and east of Unalaska. In order to determine if tsunami inundation could have reached the runup markers observed on Unalaska, we modeled the 1957 tsunami using GeoCLAW, a numerical model that simulates tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation. The published rupture orientation and slip distribution for the MW 8.6, 1957 earthquake (Johnson et al., 1994) was used as the tsunami source, which delineates a 1200 km long rupture zone along the Aleutian trench from Delarof Island to Unimak Island. Model results indicate that runup and inundation from this particular source are too low to account for the runup markers observed in the field, because slip is concentrated in the western half of the rupture zone, far from Unalaska. To ascertain if any realistic, earthquake-generated tsunami could account for the observed runup, we modeled tsunami inundation from synthetic MW 9.2 earthquakes rupturing along the trench between Atka and Unimak Islands, which indicate that the deposit runup observed on Unalaska is possible from a source of this size and orientation. Further modeling efforts will examine the April 1, 1946 Aleutian tsunami, as well as other synthetic tsunamigenic earthquake sources of varying size and location, which may provide insight into the rupture history of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone, especially in combination with more data from paleotsunami deposits. Johnson, Jean M., Tanioka, Yuichiro, Ruff, Larry J., Satake, Kenji, Kanamori, Hiroo, Sykes, Lynn R. "The 1957 great Aleutian earthquake." Pure and Applied Geophysics 142.1 (1994): 3-28.

Distributions of strong ground motion due to dynamic ruptures across a bimaterial fault: Implications for seismic hazard analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Jie; Zhu, Shoubiao

2016-12-01

We perform 2-D finite element calculations of mode II rupture along a bimaterial interface governed by regularized rate- and state-dependent friction law, with the goal of understanding how the bimaterial interface influences the strong ground motion. By comparison with properties of rupture in a homogeneous solid, we found that bimaterial mechanism is important for earthquake ruptures and influences the strong ground motion significantly. The simulated results show that mode II rupture evolves with propagation distance along a bimaterial interface to a unilateral wrinkle-like pulse in the direction of slip on the compliant side of the fault, namely in the positive direction. Strong ground motion caused by seismic waves emanated from the rupture propagation is asymmetrically distributed in space. The computed peak ground acceleration (PGA) is high in the near-fault region. Particularly, PGA is much larger in the region on the side in the positive direction. In addition, it is greater in the more compliant area of the model than that in the stiffer area with corresponding locations. Moreover, the differential PGA due to bimaterial effect increases with increasing degree of material contrast across the fault. It is hoped that the results obtained in this investigation will provide some implications for seismic hazard assessment and fault rupture mechanics.

Anomalies of rupture velocity in deep earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, M.; Yagi, Y.

2010-12-01

Explaining deep seismicity is a long-standing challenge in earth science. Deeper than 300 km, the occurrence rate of earthquakes with depth remains at a low level until ~530 km depth, then rises until ~600 km, finally terminate near 700 km. Given the difficulty of estimating fracture properties and observing the stress field in the mantle transition zone (410-660 km), the seismic source processes of deep earthquakes are the most important information for understanding the distribution of deep seismicity. However, in a compilation of seismic source models of deep earthquakes, the source parameters for individual deep earthquakes are quite varied [Frohlich, 2006]. Rupture velocities for deep earthquakes estimated using seismic waveforms range from 0.3 to 0.9Vs, where Vs is the shear wave velocity, a considerably wider range than the velocities for shallow earthquakes. The uncertainty of seismic source models prevents us from determining the main characteristics of the rupture process and understanding the physical mechanisms of deep earthquakes. Recently, the back projection method has been used to derive a detailed and stable seismic source image from dense seismic network observations [e.g., Ishii et al., 2005; Walker et al., 2005]. Using this method, we can obtain an image of the seismic source process from the observed data without a priori constraints or discarding parameters. We applied the back projection method to teleseismic P-waveforms of 24 large, deep earthquakes (moment magnitude Mw ≥ 7.0, depth ≥ 300 km) recorded since 1994 by the Data Management Center of the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS-DMC) and reported in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) catalog, and constructed seismic source models of deep earthquakes. By imaging the seismic rupture process for a set of recent deep earthquakes, we found that the rupture velocities are less than about 0.6Vs except in the depth range of 530 to 600 km. This is consistent with the depth variation of deep seismicity: it peaks between about 530 and 600 km, where the fast rupture earthquakes (greater than 0.7Vs) are observed. Similarly, aftershock productivity is particularly low from 300 to 550 km depth and increases markedly at depth greater than 550 km [e.g., Persh and Houston, 2004]. We propose that large fracture surface energy (Gc) value for deep earthquakes generally prevent the acceleration of dynamic rupture propagation and generation of earthquakes between 300 and 700 km depth, whereas small Gc value in the exceptional depth range promote dynamic rupture propagation and explain the seismicity peak near 600 km.

Towards coupled earthquake dynamic rupture and tsunami simulations: The 2011 Tohoku earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvez, Percy; van Dinther, Ylona

2016-04-01

The 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake has been recorded with a vast GPS and seismic network given an unprecedented chance to seismologists to unveil complex rupture processes in a mega-thrust event. The seismic stations surrounding the Miyagi regions (MYGH013) show two clear distinct waveforms separated by 40 seconds suggesting two rupture fronts, possibly due to slip reactivation caused by frictional melting and thermal fluid pressurization effects. We created a 3D dynamic rupture model to reproduce this rupture reactivation pattern using SPECFEM3D (Galvez et al, 2014) based on a slip-weakening friction with sudden two sequential stress drops (Galvez et al, 2015) . Our model starts like a M7-8 earthquake breaking dimly the trench, then after 40 seconds a second rupture emerges close to the trench producing additional slip capable to fully break the trench and transforming the earthquake into a megathrust event. The seismograms agree roughly with seismic records along the coast of Japan. The resulting sea floor displacements are in agreement with 1Hz GPS displacements (GEONET). The simulated sea floor displacement reaches 8-10 meters of uplift close to the trench, which may be the cause of such a devastating tsunami followed by the Tohoku earthquake. To investigate the impact of such a huge uplift, we ran tsunami simulations with the slip reactivation model and plug the sea floor displacements into GeoClaw (Finite element code for tsunami simulations, George and LeVeque, 2006). Our recent results compare well with the water height at the tsunami DART buoys 21401, 21413, 21418 and 21419 and show the potential using fully dynamic rupture results for tsunami studies for earthquake-tsunami scenarios.

Simulation of the Tsunami Resulting from the M 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake - Dynamic Rupture vs. Seismic Inversion Source Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vater, Stefan; Behrens, Jörn

2017-04-01

Simulations of historic tsunami events such as the 2004 Sumatra or the 2011 Tohoku event are usually initialized using earthquake sources resulting from inversion of seismic data. Also, other data from ocean buoys etc. is sometimes included in the derivation of the source model. The associated tsunami event can often be well simulated in this way, and the results show high correlation with measured data. However, it is unclear how the derived source model compares to the particular earthquake event. In this study we use the results from dynamic rupture simulations obtained with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-DG discretization solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. The tsunami model is based on a second-order Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme on triangular grids and features a robust wetting and drying scheme for the simulation of inundation events at the coast. Adaptive mesh refinement enables the efficient computation of large domains, while at the same time it allows for high local resolution and geometric accuracy. The results are compared to measured data and results using earthquake sources based on inversion. With the approach of using the output of actual dynamic rupture simulations, we can estimate the influence of different earthquake parameters. Furthermore, the comparison to other source models enables a thorough comparison and validation of important tsunami parameters, such as the runup at the coast. This work is part of the ASCETE (Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events) project, which aims at an improved understanding of the coupling between the earthquake and the generated tsunami event.

Dynamic earthquake rupture simulation on nonplanar faults embedded in 3D geometrically complex, heterogeneous Earth models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duru, K.; Dunham, E. M.; Bydlon, S. A.; Radhakrishnan, H.

2014-12-01

Dynamic propagation of shear ruptures on a frictional interface is a useful idealization of a natural earthquake.The conditions relating slip rate and fault shear strength are often expressed as nonlinear friction laws.The corresponding initial boundary value problems are both numerically and computationally challenging.In addition, seismic waves generated by earthquake ruptures must be propagated, far away from fault zones, to seismic stations and remote areas.Therefore, reliable and efficient numerical simulations require both provably stable and high order accurate numerical methods.We present a numerical method for:a) enforcing nonlinear friction laws, in a consistent and provably stable manner, suitable for efficient explicit time integration;b) dynamic propagation of earthquake ruptures along rough faults; c) accurate propagation of seismic waves in heterogeneous media with free surface topography.We solve the first order form of the 3D elastic wave equation on a boundary-conforming curvilinear mesh, in terms of particle velocities and stresses that are collocated in space and time, using summation-by-parts finite differences in space. The finite difference stencils are 6th order accurate in the interior and 3rd order accurate close to the boundaries. Boundary and interface conditions are imposed weakly using penalties. By deriving semi-discrete energy estimates analogous to the continuous energy estimates we prove numerical stability. Time stepping is performed with a 4th order accurate explicit low storage Runge-Kutta scheme. We have performed extensive numerical experiments using a slip-weakening friction law on non-planar faults, including recent SCEC benchmark problems. We also show simulations on fractal faults revealing the complexity of rupture dynamics on rough faults. We are presently extending our method to rate-and-state friction laws and off-fault plasticity.

Systematic observations of the slip pulse properties of large earthquake ruptures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melgar, Diego; Hayes, Gavin

2017-01-01

In earthquake dynamics there are two end member models of rupture: propagating cracks and self-healing pulses. These arise due to different properties of faults and have implications for seismic hazard; rupture mode controls near-field strong ground motions. Past studies favor the pulse-like mode of rupture; however, due to a variety of limitations, it has proven difficult to systematically establish their kinematic properties. Here we synthesize observations from a database of >150 rupture models of earthquakes spanning M7–M9 processed in a uniform manner and show the magnitude scaling properties of these slip pulses indicates self-similarity. Further, we find that large and very large events are statistically distinguishable relatively early (at ~15 s) in the rupture process. This suggests that with dense regional geophysical networks strong ground motions from a large rupture can be identified before their onset across the source region.

Fault Rupture Model of the 2016 Gyeongju, South Korea, Earthquake and Its Implication for the Underground Fault System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchide, Takahiko; Song, Seok Goo

2018-03-01

The 2016 Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) was the largest instrumentally recorded inland event in South Korea. It occurred in the southeast of the Korean Peninsula and was preceded by a large ML 5.1 foreshock. The aftershock seismicity data indicate that these earthquakes occurred on two closely collocated parallel faults that are oblique to the surface trace of the Yangsan fault. We investigate the rupture properties of these earthquakes using finite-fault slip inversion analyses. The obtained models indicate that the ruptures propagated NNE-ward and SSW-ward for the main shock and the large foreshock, respectively. This indicates that these earthquakes occurred on right-step faults and were initiated around a fault jog. The stress drops were up to 62 and 43 MPa for the main shock and the largest foreshock, respectively. These high stress drops imply high strength excess, which may be overcome by the stress concentration around the fault jog.

The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Peter; Field, Edward H.

2015-01-01

The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.

Finite-fault source inversion using adjoint methods in 3D heterogeneous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somala, Surendra Nadh; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Lapusta, Nadia

2018-04-01

Accounting for lateral heterogeneities in the 3D velocity structure of the crust is known to improve earthquake source inversion, compared to results based on 1D velocity models which are routinely assumed to derive finite-fault slip models. The conventional approach to include known 3D heterogeneity in source inversion involves pre-computing 3D Green's functions, which requires a number of 3D wave propagation simulations proportional to the number of stations or to the number of fault cells. The computational cost of such an approach is prohibitive for the dense datasets that could be provided by future earthquake observation systems. Here, we propose an adjoint-based optimization technique to invert for the spatio-temporal evolution of slip velocity. The approach does not require pre-computed Green's functions. The adjoint method provides the gradient of the cost function, which is used to improve the model iteratively employing an iterative gradient-based minimization method. The adjoint approach is shown to be computationally more efficient than the conventional approach based on pre-computed Green's functions in a broad range of situations. We consider data up to 1 Hz from a Haskell source scenario (a steady pulse-like rupture) on a vertical strike-slip fault embedded in an elastic 3D heterogeneous velocity model. The velocity model comprises a uniform background and a 3D stochastic perturbation with the von Karman correlation function. Source inversions based on the 3D velocity model are performed for two different station configurations, a dense and a sparse network with 1 km and 20 km station spacing, respectively. These reference inversions show that our inversion scheme adequately retrieves the rise time when the velocity model is exactly known, and illustrates how dense coverage improves the inference of peak slip velocities. We investigate the effects of uncertainties in the velocity model by performing source inversions based on an incorrect, homogeneous velocity model. We find that, for velocity uncertainties that have standard deviation and correlation length typical of available 3D crustal models, the inverted sources can be severely contaminated by spurious features even if the station density is high. When data from thousand or more receivers is used in source inversions in 3D heterogeneous media, the computational cost of the method proposed in this work is at least two orders of magnitude lower than source inversion based on pre-computed Green's functions.

Finite-fault source inversion using adjoint methods in 3-D heterogeneous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somala, Surendra Nadh; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Lapusta, Nadia

2018-07-01

Accounting for lateral heterogeneities in the 3-D velocity structure of the crust is known to improve earthquake source inversion, compared to results based on 1-D velocity models which are routinely assumed to derive finite-fault slip models. The conventional approach to include known 3-D heterogeneity in source inversion involves pre-computing 3-D Green's functions, which requires a number of 3-D wave propagation simulations proportional to the number of stations or to the number of fault cells. The computational cost of such an approach is prohibitive for the dense data sets that could be provided by future earthquake observation systems. Here, we propose an adjoint-based optimization technique to invert for the spatio-temporal evolution of slip velocity. The approach does not require pre-computed Green's functions. The adjoint method provides the gradient of the cost function, which is used to improve the model iteratively employing an iterative gradient-based minimization method. The adjoint approach is shown to be computationally more efficient than the conventional approach based on pre-computed Green's functions in a broad range of situations. We consider data up to 1 Hz from a Haskell source scenario (a steady pulse-like rupture) on a vertical strike-slip fault embedded in an elastic 3-D heterogeneous velocity model. The velocity model comprises a uniform background and a 3-D stochastic perturbation with the von Karman correlation function. Source inversions based on the 3-D velocity model are performed for two different station configurations, a dense and a sparse network with 1 and 20 km station spacing, respectively. These reference inversions show that our inversion scheme adequately retrieves the rise time when the velocity model is exactly known, and illustrates how dense coverage improves the inference of peak-slip velocities. We investigate the effects of uncertainties in the velocity model by performing source inversions based on an incorrect, homogeneous velocity model. We find that, for velocity uncertainties that have standard deviation and correlation length typical of available 3-D crustal models, the inverted sources can be severely contaminated by spurious features even if the station density is high. When data from thousand or more receivers is used in source inversions in 3-D heterogeneous media, the computational cost of the method proposed in this work is at least two orders of magnitude lower than source inversion based on pre-computed Green's functions.

Using Multi-scale Dynamic Rupture Models to Improve Ground Motion Estimates: ALCF-2 Early Science Program Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ely, Geoffrey P.

2013-10-31

This project uses dynamic rupture simulations to investigate high-frequency seismic energy generation. The relevant phenomena (frictional breakdown, shear heating, effective normal-stress fluctuations, material damage, etc.) controlling rupture are strongly interacting and span many orders of magnitude in spatial scale, requiring highresolution simulations that couple disparate physical processes (e.g., elastodynamics, thermal weakening, pore-fluid transport, and heat conduction). Compounding the computational challenge, we know that natural faults are not planar, but instead have roughness that can be approximated by power laws potentially leading to large, multiscale fluctuations in normal stress. The capacity to perform 3D rupture simulations that couple these processes willmore » provide guidance for constructing appropriate source models for high-frequency ground motion simulations. The improved rupture models from our multi-scale dynamic rupture simulations will be used to conduct physicsbased (3D waveform modeling-based) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for California. These calculation will provide numerous important seismic hazard results, including a state-wide extended earthquake rupture forecast with rupture variations for all significant events, a synthetic seismogram catalog for thousands of scenario events and more than 5000 physics-based seismic hazard curves for California.« less

A Model For Rapid Estimation of Economic Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, J. R.; Rundle, J. B.

2012-12-01

One of the loftier goals in seismic hazard analysis is the creation of an end-to-end earthquake prediction system: a "rupture to rafters" work flow that takes a prediction of fault rupture, propagates it with a ground shaking model, and outputs a damage or loss profile at a given location. So far, the initial prediction of an earthquake rupture (either as a point source or a fault system) has proven to be the most difficult and least solved step in this chain. However, this may soon change. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has amassed a suite of earthquake source models for assorted testing regions worldwide. These models are capable of providing rate-based forecasts for earthquake (point) sources over a range of time horizons. Furthermore, these rate forecasts can be easily refined into probabilistic source forecasts. While it's still difficult to fully assess the "goodness" of each of these models, progress is being made: new evaluation procedures are being devised and earthquake statistics continue to accumulate. The scientific community appears to be heading towards a better understanding of rupture predictability. Ground shaking mechanics are better understood, and many different sophisticated models exists. While these models tend to be computationally expensive and often regionally specific, they do a good job at matching empirical data. It is perhaps time to start addressing the third step in the seismic hazard prediction system. We present a model for rapid economic loss estimation using ground motion (PGA or PGV) and socioeconomic measures as its input. We show that the model can be calibrated on a global scale and applied worldwide. We also suggest how the model can be improved and generalized to non-seismic natural disasters such as hurricane and severe wind storms.

Axial crack propagation and arrest in pressurized fuselage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kosai, M.; Shimamoto, A.; Yu, C.-T.; Walker, S. I.; Kobayashi, A. S.; Tan, P.

1994-01-01

The crack arrest capability of a tear strap in a pressurized precracked fuselage was studied through instrumented axial rupture tests of small scale models of an idealized fuselage. Upon pressurization, rapid crack propagation initiated at an axial through crack along the stringer and immediately kinked due to the mixed modes 1 and 2 state caused by the one-sided opening of the crack flap. The diagonally running crack further turned at the tear straps. Dynamic finite element analysis of the rupturing cylinder showed that the crack kinked and also ran straight in the presence of a mixed mode state according to a modified two-parameter crack kinking criterion.

Kinematic Seismic Rupture Parameters from a Doppler Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Bento; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Borges, José F.

2010-05-01

The radiation emitted from extended seismic sources, mainly when the rupture spreads in preferred directions, presents spectral deviations as a function of the observation location. This aspect, unobserved to point sources, and named as directivity, are manifested by an increase in the frequency and amplitude of seismic waves when the rupture occurs in the direction of the seismic station and a decrease in the frequency and amplitude if it occurs in the opposite direction. The model of directivity that supports the method is a Doppler analysis based on a kinematic source model of rupture and wave propagation through a structural medium with spherical symmetry [1]. A unilateral rupture can be viewed as a sequence of shocks produced along certain paths on the fault. According this model, the seismic record at any point on the Earth's surface contains a signature of the rupture process that originated the recorded waveform. Calculating the rupture direction and velocity by a general Doppler equation, - the goal of this work - using a dataset of common time-delays read from waveforms recorded at different distances around the epicenter, requires the normalization of measures to a standard value of slowness. This normalization involves a non-linear inversion that we solve numerically using an iterative least-squares approach. The evaluation of the performance of this technique was done through a set of synthetic and real applications. We present the application of the method at four real case studies, the following earthquakes: Arequipa, Peru (Mw = 8.4, June 23, 2001); Denali, AK, USA (Mw = 7.8; November 3, 2002); Zemmouri-Boumerdes, Algeria (Mw = 6.8, May 21, 2003); and Sumatra, Indonesia (Mw = 9.3, December 26, 2004). The results obtained from the dataset of the four earthquakes agreed, in general, with the values presented by other authors using different methods and data. [1] Caldeira B., Bezzeghoud M, Borges JF, 2009; DIRDOP: a directivity approach to determining the seismic rupture velocity vector. J Seismology, DOI 10.1007/s10950-009-9183-x

Seismotectonic framework of the 2010 February 27 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Gavin P.; Bergman, Eric; Johnson, Kendra J.; Benz, Harley M.; Brown, Lucy; Meltzer, Anne S.

2013-01-01

After the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake, an international collaboration involving teams and instruments from Chile, the US, the UK, France and Germany established the International Maule Aftershock Deployment temporary network over the source region of the event to facilitate detailed, open-access studies of the aftershock sequence. Using data from the first 9-months of this deployment, we have analyzed the detailed spatial distribution of over 2500 well-recorded aftershocks. All earthquakes have been relocated using a hypocentral decomposition algorithm to study the details of and uncertainties in both their relative and absolute locations. We have computed regional moment tensor solutions for the largest of these events to produce a catalogue of 465 mechanisms, and have used all of these data to study the spatial distribution of the aftershock sequence with respect to the Chilean megathrust. We refine models of co-seismic slip distribution of the Maule earthquake, and show how small changes in fault geometries assumed in teleseismic finite fault modelling significantly improve fits to regional GPS data, implying that the accuracy of rapid teleseismic fault models can be substantially improved by consideration of existing fault geometry model databases. We interpret all of these data in an integrated seismotectonic framework for the Maule earthquake rupture and its aftershock sequence, and discuss the relationships between co-seismic rupture and aftershock distributions. While the majority of aftershocks are interplate thrust events located away from regions of maximum co-seismic slip, interesting clusters of aftershocks are identified in the lower plate at both ends of the main shock rupture, implying internal deformation of the slab in response to large slip on the plate boundary interface. We also perform Coulomb stress transfer calculations to compare aftershock locations and mechanisms to static stress changes following the Maule rupture. Without the incorporation of uncertainties in earthquake locations, just 55 per cent of aftershock nodal planes align with faults promoted towards failure by co-seismic slip. When epicentral uncertainties are considered (on the order of just ±2–3 km), 90 per cent of aftershocks are consistent with occurring along faults demonstrating positive stress transfer. These results imply large sensitivities of Coulomb stress transfer calculations to uncertainties in both earthquake locations and models of slip distributions, particularly when applied to aftershocks close to a heterogeneous fault rupture; such uncertainties should therefore be considered in similar studies used to argue for or against models of static stress triggering.

Finite-Fault and Other New Capabilities of CISN ShakeAlert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boese, M.; Felizardo, C.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.; Hauksson, E.

2013-12-01

Over the past 6 years, scientists at Caltech, UC Berkeley, the Univ. of Southern California, the Univ. of Washington, the US Geological Survey, and ETH Zurich (Switzerland) have developed the 'ShakeAlert' earthquake early warning demonstration system for California and the Pacific Northwest. We have now started to transform this system into a stable end-to-end production system that will be integrated into the daily routine operations of the CISN and PNSN networks. To quickly determine the earthquake magnitude and location, ShakeAlert currently processes and interprets real-time data-streams from several hundred seismic stations within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN). Based on these parameters, the 'UserDisplay' software predicts and displays the arrival and intensity of shaking at a given user site. Real-time ShakeAlert feeds are currently being shared with around 160 individuals, companies, and emergency response organizations to gather feedback about the system performance, to educate potential users about EEW, and to identify needs and applications of EEW in a future operational warning system. To improve the performance during large earthquakes (M>6.5), we have started to develop, implement, and test a number of new algorithms for the ShakeAlert system: the 'FinDer' (Finite Fault Rupture Detector) algorithm provides real-time estimates of locations and extents of finite-fault ruptures from high-frequency seismic data. The 'GPSlip' algorithm estimates the fault slip along these ruptures using high-rate real-time GPS data. And, third, a new type of ground-motion prediction models derived from over 415,000 rupture simulations along active faults in southern California improves MMI intensity predictions for large earthquakes with consideration of finite-fault, rupture directivity, and basin response effects. FinDer and GPSlip are currently being real-time and offline tested in a separate internal ShakeAlert installation at Caltech. Real-time position and displacement time series from around 100 GPS sensors are obtained in JSON format from RTK/PPP(AR) solutions using the RTNet software at USGS Pasadena. However, we have also started to investigate the usage of onsite (in-receiver) processing using NetR9 with RTX and tracebuf2 output format. A number of changes to the ShakeAlert processing, xml message format, and the usage of this information in the UserDisplay software were necessary to handle the new finite-fault and slip information from the FinDer and GPSlip algorithms. In addition, we have developed a framework for end-to-end off-line testing with archived and simulated waveform data using the Earthworm tankplayer. Detailed background information about the algorithms, processing, and results from these test runs will be presented.

Deterministic and Probabilistic Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancement to CARES/Creep: Multiaxial Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Structures Using Continuum Damage Mechanics and the Finite Element Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1998-01-01

High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep ripture criterion However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of stress, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and the CARES/Creep program.

An evolutive real-time source inversion based on a linear inverse formulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez Reyes, H. S.; Tago, J.; Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Metivier, L.; Contreras Zazueta, M. A.; Virieux, J.

2016-12-01

Finite source inversion is a steppingstone to unveil earthquake rupture. It is used on ground motion predictions and its results shed light on seismic cycle for better tectonic understanding. It is not yet used for quasi-real-time analysis. Nowadays, significant progress has been made on approaches regarding earthquake imaging, thanks to new data acquisition and methodological advances. However, most of these techniques are posterior procedures once seismograms are available. Incorporating source parameters estimation into early warning systems would require to update the source build-up while recording data. In order to go toward this dynamic estimation, we developed a kinematic source inversion formulated in the time-domain, for which seismograms are linearly related to the slip distribution on the fault through convolutions with Green's functions previously estimated and stored (Perton et al., 2016). These convolutions are performed in the time-domain as we progressively increase the time window of records at each station specifically. Selected unknowns are the spatio-temporal slip-rate distribution to keep the linearity of the forward problem with respect to unknowns, as promoted by Fan and Shearer (2014). Through the spatial extension of the expected rupture zone, we progressively build-up the slip-rate when adding new data by assuming rupture causality. This formulation is based on the adjoint-state method for efficiency (Plessix, 2006). The inverse problem is non-unique and, in most cases, underdetermined. While standard regularization terms are used for stabilizing the inversion, we avoid strategies based on parameter reduction leading to an unwanted non-linear relationship between parameters and seismograms for our progressive build-up. Rise time, rupture velocity and other quantities can be extracted later on as attributs from the slip-rate inversion we perform. Satisfactory results are obtained on a synthetic example (FIgure 1) proposed by the Source Inversion Validation project (Mai et al. 2011). A real case application is currently being explored. Our specific formulation, combined with simple prior information, as well as numerical results obtained so far, yields interesting perspectives for a real-time implementation.

Using Socioeconomic Data to Calibrate Loss Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, J. R.; Rundle, J. B.

2013-12-01

One of the loftier goals in seismic hazard analysis is the creation of an end-to-end earthquake prediction system: a "rupture to rafters" work flow that takes a prediction of fault rupture, propagates it with a ground shaking model, and outputs a damage or loss profile at a given location. So far, the initial prediction of an earthquake rupture (either as a point source or a fault system) has proven to be the most difficult and least solved step in this chain. However, this may soon change. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has amassed a suite of earthquake source models for assorted testing regions worldwide. These models are capable of providing rate-based forecasts for earthquake (point) sources over a range of time horizons. Furthermore, these rate forecasts can be easily refined into probabilistic source forecasts. While it's still difficult to fully assess the "goodness" of each of these models, progress is being made: new evaluation procedures are being devised and earthquake statistics continue to accumulate. The scientific community appears to be heading towards a better understanding of rupture predictability. Ground shaking mechanics are better understood, and many different sophisticated models exists. While these models tend to be computationally expensive and often regionally specific, they do a good job at matching empirical data. It is perhaps time to start addressing the third step in the seismic hazard prediction system. We present a model for rapid economic loss estimation using ground motion (PGA or PGV) and socioeconomic measures as its input. We show that the model can be calibrated on a global scale and applied worldwide. We also suggest how the model can be improved and generalized to non-seismic natural disasters such as hurricane and severe wind storms.

Biomechanical study of three kinds of internal fixation for the treatment of sacroiliac joint disruption using biomechanical test and finite element analysis.

PubMed

Wu, Tao; Ren, Xuejiao; Cui, Yunwei; Cheng, Xiaodong; Peng, Shuo; Hou, Zhiyong; Han, Yongtai

2018-06-19

To compare the stability of sacroiliac joint disruption fixed with three kinds of internal fixation using both biomechanical test and finite element analysis. Five embalmed specimens of an adult were used. The symphysis pubis rupture and left sacroiliac joint disruption were created. The symphysis pubis was stabilized with a five-hole plate. The sacroiliac joint disruption was fixed with three kinds of internal fixation in a randomized design. Displacements of the whole specimen and shifts in the gap were recorded. Three-dimensional finite element models of the pelvis, the pelvis with symphysis pubis rupture and left sacroiliac joint disruption, and three kinds of internal fixation techniques were created and analyzed. Under the vertical load, the displacements and shifts in the gap of the pelvis fixed with minimally invasive adjustable plate (MIAP) combined with one iliosacral (IS) screw were the smallest, and the average displacements of the pelvis fixed with an anterior plate were the largest one. The differences among them were significant. In finite element analysis and MIAP combined with one IS screw fixation showed relatively best fixation stability and lowest risks of implant failure than two IS screws fixation and anterior plate fixation. The stability of sacroiliac joint disruption fixed with MIAP combined with one IS screw is better than that fixed with two IS screws and anterior plate under vertical load.

Rupture Dynamics and Scaling Behavior of Hydraulically Stimulated Micro-Earthquakes in a Shale Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viegas, G. F.; Urbancic, T.; Baig, A. M.

2014-12-01

In hydraulic fracturing completion programs fluids are injected under pressure into fractured rock formations to open escape pathways for trapped hydrocarbons along pre-existing and newly generated fractures. To characterize the failure process, we estimate static and dynamic source and rupture parameters, such as dynamic and static stress drop, radiated energy, seismic efficiency, failure modes, failure plane orientations and dimensions, and rupture velocity to investigate the rupture dynamics and scaling relations of micro-earthquakes induced during a hydraulic fracturing shale completion program in NE British Columbia, Canada. The relationships between the different parameters combined with the in-situ stress field and rock properties provide valuable information on the rupture process giving insights into the generation and development of the fracture network. Approximately 30,000 micro-earthquakes were recorded using three multi-sensor arrays of high frequency geophones temporarily placed close to the treatment area at reservoir depth (~2km). On average the events have low radiated energy, low dynamic stress and low seismic efficiency, consistent with the obtained slow rupture velocities. Events fail in overshoot mode (slip weakening failure model), with fluids lubricating faults and decreasing friction resistance. Events occurring in deeper formations tend to have faster rupture velocities and are more efficient in radiating energy. Variations in rupture velocity tend to correlate with variation in depth, fault azimuth and elapsed time, reflecting a dominance of the local stress field over other factors. Several regions with different characteristic failure modes are identifiable based on coherent stress drop, seismic efficiency, rupture velocities and fracture orientations. Variations of source parameters with rock rheology and hydro-fracture fluids are also observed. Our results suggest that the spatial and temporal distribution of events with similar characteristic rupture behaviors can be used to determine reservoir geophysical properties, constrain reservoir geo-mechanical models, classify dynamic rupture processes for fracture models and improve fracture treatment designs.

Scale-Dependent Friction and Damage Interface law: implications for effective earthquake rupture dynamics and radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Festa, Gaetano; Vilotte, Jean-Pierre; Raous, Michel; Henninger, Carole

2010-05-01

Propagation and radiation of an earthquake rupture is commonly considered as a friction dominated process on fault surfaces. Friction laws, such as the slip weakening and the rate-and-state laws are widely used in the modeling of the earthquake rupture process. These laws prescribe the traction evolution versus slip, slip rate and potentially other internal variables. They introduce a finite cohesive length scale over which the fracture energy is released. However faults are finite-width interfaces with complex internal structures, characterized by highly damaged zones embedding a very thin principal slip interface where most of the dynamic slip localizes. Even though the rupture process is generally investigated at wavelengths larger than the fault zone thickness, which should justify a formulation based upon surface energy, a consistent homogeneization, a very challenging problem, is still missing. Such homogeneization is however be required to derive the consistent form of an effective interface law, as well as the appropriate physical variables and length scales, to correctly describe the coarse-grained dissipation resulting from surface and volumetric contributions at the scale of the fault zone. In this study, we investigate a scale-dependent law, introduced by Raous et al. (1999) in the context of adhesive material interfaces, that takes into account the transition between a damage dominated and a friction dominated state. Such a phase-field formalism describes this transition through an order parameter. We first compare this law to standard slip weakening friction law in terms of the rupture nucleation. The problem is analyzed through the representation of the solution of the quasi-static elastic problem onto the Chebyshev polynomial basis, generalizing the Uenishi-Rice solution. The nucleation solutions, at the onset of instability, are then introduced as initial conditions for the study of the dynamic rupture propagation, in the case of in-plane rupture, using high-order Spectral Element Methods and non-smooth contact mechanics. In particular, we investigate the implications of this new interface law in terms of the rupture propagation and arrest. Special attention is focused on radiation and supershear transition. Comparison with the classical slip weakening friction law is provided. Finally, first results toward a dynamic consistent homogeneization of damaged fault zones will be discussed. Raous, M., Cangémi, L. and Cocou, M. (1999). A consistent model coupling adhesion, friction and unilateral contact', Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, Vol. 177, pp.383-399.

Spherical Viscoelastic Finite Element Model for Cascadia Interseismic Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, J.; Wang, K.; Dragert, H.; Miller, M. M.

2003-12-01

We have developed a 3-D spherical viscoelastic finite element model for the Cascadia subduction zone to study temporal and spatial variations of interseismic deformation. Previous 3-D viscoelastic finite element models of subduction zone earthquake cycles all use the Cartesian system, with the surface of the earth map-projected on to a horizontal plane. For earthquakes that rupture very long plate-boundary segments, such as the 1700 Cascadia, 1960 Chile, and 1964 Alaska great earthquakes, the Cartesian approach is inconvenient and less accurate. 3-D analytical solutions take into account the spherical geometry of the earth but have difficulty dealing with realistic plate boundary structure. For the new spherical finite element model, we use 27-node tri-quadratic isoparametric element. The resultant large sparse matrix system is solved by the stabilized bi-conjugate gradient method with ILUT preconditioning of fill-in level 6. Our experience suggests that lower order elements in the spherical system would result in unacceptable numerical errors unless one set of mesh lines is strictly radial. For the great Cascadia earthquake, we employ a smooth coseismic rupture model inferred from thermal data and results of tsunami models of the 1700 event, but we test different slip distances. For interseismic deformation, we use the conventional backslip approach. The contemporary deformation of the Cascadia margin consists of interseismic strain accumulation and a geological secular motion that can be described by a rotation of the forearc relative to North America. To isolate the interseismic deformation, we remove the secular motion from both the model formulation and geodetic data. The model predicts decreasing margin-normal shortening rates throughout the interseismic period as a result of stress relaxation in the viscoelastic mantle. The rate of decrease depends on the assumed mantle viscosity. With a viscosity of 1019 Pa s, model surface deformation at 300 years after the great earthquake agrees with geodetically observed contemporary deformation very well. The model also confirms the previous finding based on a Cartesian model that an inland region continues to move seaward several decades after the great earthquake.

Rupture Process During the Mw 8.1 2017 Chiapas Mexico Earthquake: Shallow Intraplate Normal Faulting by Slab Bending

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okuwaki, R.; Yagi, Y.

2017-12-01

A seismic source model for the Mw 8.1 2017 Chiapas, Mexico, earthquake was constructed by kinematic waveform inversion using globally observed teleseismic waveforms, suggesting that the earthquake was a normal-faulting event on a steeply dipping plane, with the major slip concentrated around a relatively shallow depth of 28 km. The modeled rupture evolution showed unilateral, downdip propagation northwestward from the hypocenter, and the downdip width of the main rupture was restricted to less than 30 km below the slab interface, suggesting that the downdip extensional stresses due to the slab bending were the primary cause of the earthquake. The rupture front abruptly decelerated at the northwestern end of the main rupture where it intersected the subducting Tehuantepec Fracture Zone, suggesting that the fracture zone may have inhibited further rupture propagation.

The 2017 Mw8.2 Tres Picos, Mexico Earthquake, an intraslab rupture crossing the Tehuantepec Fracture Zone stopped by a tear in the Cocos Plate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, S.; Zeng, H.; WANG, X.; Qiu, Q.; Wang, T.; Li, L.; Chen, M.; Hermawan, I.; Wang, Y.; Tapponnier, P.; Barbot, S.

2017-12-01

On September 7th 2017, an Mw 8.2 intraslab earthquake ruptured beneath the Tehuantepec seismic gap in the Mexico subduction zone. We conducted a comprehensive investigation to characterize the earthquake rupture, including high-resolution back-projection, mainshock and large aftershocks relocation, aftershock moment tensor inversion, finite rupture model inversion jointly inverted from seismic waveform, static/high-rate GPS and InSAR images, and tsunami modeling. The back-projection results delineate a unilateral northwestward rupture about 150 km in length and 60s in duration, with a stable average rupture speed of 2.8 km/s. To reconcile multiple datasets, we used a two-segment fault geometry with near vertical dip angle (78°), and the second segment strikes slightly northward oriented, to mimic the rupture across the Tehuantepec Fracture Zone (FTZ) that separates the rupture into two segments. The joint inversion shows that the slip southeastern of TFZ dominates the moment release in the depth range of 30-50km during the first 40s. The second rupture segment released about 15% of the total moment, but with relatively larger contribution to the high-rate GPS, static geodetic and tide gauges data. Most of the large aftershocks occurred in the shallower part of the slab, with dominant thrust focal mechanism in agreement with slab bending. In contrast, the mainshock initiated at greater depth inside the slab, on a fault that may have formed near the trench and was reactivated by slab unbending, and was perhaps facilitated by dehydration. The comparison between the rupture model and the free air gravity anomaly suggests that the rupture was blocked westward by a low gravity anomaly zone. We interpret the difference in subducting speed and slab age across the TFZ and the Cocos plate gravity anomaly to be responsible for the abrupt stopping of the rupture at a tear zone inside the diving Cocos plate. Whether this earthquake will enhance future rupture on the plate interface in Tehuantepec seismic gap is not clear, as the corresponding stress change clamped the megathrust up-dip. Still, the recent seismic activity raises concern about the imminent seismic hazards in the region.

Signals in the ionosphere generated by tsunami earthquakes: observations and modeling suppor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolland, L.; Sladen, A.; Mikesell, D.; Larmat, C. S.; Rakoto, V.; Remillieux, M.; Lee, R.; Khelfi, K.; Lognonne, P. H.; Astafyeva, E.

2017-12-01

Forecasting systems failed to predict the magnitude of the 2011 great tsunami in Japan due to the difficulty and cost of instrumenting the ocean with high-quality and dense networks. Melgar et al. (2013) show that using all of the conventional data (inland seismic, geodetic, and tsunami gauges) with the best inversion method still fails to predict the correct height of the tsunami before it breaks onto a coast near the epicenter (< 500 km). On the other hand, in the last decade, scientists have gathered convincing evidence of transient signals in the ionosphere Total Electron Content (TEC) observations that are associated to open ocean tsunami waves. Even though typical tsunami waves are only a few centimeters high, they are powerful enough to create atmospheric vibrations extending all the way to the ionosphere, 300 kilometers up in the atmosphere. Therefore, we are proposing to incorporate the ionospheric signals into tsunami early-warning systems. We anticipate that the method could be decisive for mitigating "tsunami earthquakes" which trigger tsunamis larger than expected from their short-period magnitude. These events are challenging to characterize as they rupture the near-trench subduction interface, in a distant region less constrained by onshore data. As a couple of devastating tsunami earthquakes happens per decade, they represent a real threat for onshore populations and a challenge for tsunami early-warning systems. We will present the TEC observations of the recent Java 2006 and Mentawaii 2010 tsunami earthquakes and base our analysis on acoustic ray tracing, normal modes summation and the simulation code SPECFEM, which solves the wave equation in coupled acoustic (ocean, atmosphere) and elastic (solid earth) domains. Rupture histories are entered as finite source models, which will allow us to evaluate the effect of a relatively slow rupture on the surrounding ocean and atmosphere.

Delineation of Rupture Propagation of Large Earthquakes Using Source-Scanning Algorithm: A Control Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, H.; Shan, S.

2004-12-01

Determination of the rupture propagation of large earthquakes is important and of wide interest to the seismological research community. The conventional inversion method determines the distribution of slip at a grid of subfaults whose orientations are predefined. As a result, difference choices of fault geometry and dimensions often result in different solutions. In this study, we try to reconstruct the rupture history of an earthquake using the newly developed Source-Scanning Algorithm (SSA) without imposing any a priori constraints on the fault's orientation and dimension. The SSA identifies the distribution of seismic sources in two steps. First, it calculates the theoretical arrival times from all grid points inside the model space to all seismic stations by assuming an origin time. Then, the absolute amplitudes of the observed waveforms at the predicted arrival times are added to give the "brightness" of each time-space pair, and the brightest spots mark the locations of sources. The propagation of the rupture is depicted by the migration of the brightest spots throughout a prescribed time window. A series of experiments are conducted to test the resolution of the SSA inversion. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that seismometers should be placed as close as possible to the fault trace to give the best resolution in delineating rupture details, we found that the best results are obtained if the seismograms are recorded at a distance about half of the total rupture length away from the fault trace. This is especially true when the rupture duration is longer than ~10 s. A possible explanation is that the geometric spreading effects for waveforms from different segments of the rupture are about the same if the stations are sufficiently away from the fault trace, thus giving a uniform resolution to the entire rupture history.

Light water reactor lower head failure analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.; Thinnes, G.L.

1993-10-01

This document presents the results from a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored research program to investigate the mode and timing of vessel lower head failure. Major objectives of the analysis were to identify plausible failure mechanisms and to develop a method for determining which failure mode would occur first in different light water reactor designs and accident conditions. Failure mechanisms, such as tube ejection, tube rupture, global vessel failure, and localized vessel creep rupture, were studied. Newly developed models and existing models were applied to predict which failure mechanism would occur first in various severe accident scenarios. So that a broadermore » range of conditions could be considered simultaneously, calculations relied heavily on models with closed-form or simplified numerical solution techniques. Finite element techniques-were employed for analytical model verification and examining more detailed phenomena. High-temperature creep and tensile data were obtained for predicting vessel and penetration structural response.« less

Finite‐fault Bayesian inversion of teleseismic body waves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clayton, Brandon; Hartzell, Stephen; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Minson, Sarah E.

2017-01-01

Inverting geophysical data has provided fundamental information about the behavior of earthquake rupture. However, inferring kinematic source model parameters for finite‐fault ruptures is an intrinsically underdetermined problem (the problem of nonuniqueness), because we are restricted to finite noisy observations. Although many studies use least‐squares techniques to make the finite‐fault problem tractable, these methods generally lack the ability to apply non‐Gaussian error analysis and the imposition of nonlinear constraints. However, the Bayesian approach can be employed to find a Gaussian or non‐Gaussian distribution of all probable model parameters, while utilizing nonlinear constraints. We present case studies to quantify the resolving power and associated uncertainties using only teleseismic body waves in a Bayesian framework to infer the slip history for a synthetic case and two earthquakes: the 2011 Mw 7.1 Van, east Turkey, earthquake and the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah, Baja California, earthquake. In implementing the Bayesian method, we further present two distinct solutions to investigate the uncertainties by performing the inversion with and without velocity structure perturbations. We find that the posterior ensemble becomes broader when including velocity structure variability and introduces a spatial smearing of slip. Using the Bayesian framework solely on teleseismic body waves, we find rake is poorly constrained by the observations and rise time is poorly resolved when slip amplitude is low.

Integrated Geophysical Characteristics of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, M. W.; Yeck, W. L.; Nealy, J. L.; Hayes, G. P.; Barnhart, W. D.; Benz, H.; Furlong, K. P.

2015-12-01

On September 16th, 2015, an Mw 8.3 earthquake (USGS moment magnitude) ruptured offshore of central Chile, 50 km west of the city of Illapel and 200 km north of Santiago. The earthquake occurred just north of where the Juan Fernandez Ridge enters the subduction zone. In this study, we integrate multiple seismic and geodetic datasets, including multiple-event earthquake relocations; moment tensors of the Illapel mainshock, aftershocks, and prior regional seismicity; finite fault models (FFMs) of the mainshock rupture; subduction zone geometry; Coulomb stress transfer calculations; and co-seismic GPS offsets and InSAR images. These datasets allow us to (a) assess the context of the Illapel earthquake sequence with respect to historical seismicity in central Chile; (b) constrain the relationship between subduction geometry and the kinematic characteristics of the earthquake sequence; and (c) understand the distribution of aftershocks with respect to the rupture zone. Double source W-phase moment tensor analysis indicates the Illapel mainshock rupture began as a smaller Mw ~7.2 thrusting event before growing into a great-sized Mw 8.3 earthquake. Relocated aftershock seismicity is concentrated around the main region of slip, and few aftershocks occur on the megathrust shallower than ~15 km, despite the FFM indicating slip near the trench. This distribution is consistent with the aftershock behavior following the 2010 Maule and 2014 Iquique earthquakes: aftershocks primarily surround the rupture zones and are largely absent from regions of greatest slip. However, in contrast to the recent 2014 Iquique and 2010 Maule events, which ruptured in regions of the Chilean subduction zone that had not had large events in over a century, this earthquake occurred in a section of the subduction zone that hosted a large earthquake as recently as 1943, as well as earlier significant events in 1880 and 1822. At this section of the subduction zone, in addition to the impinging Juan Fernandez Ridge, the slab geometry changes from steeply dipping south of the Illapel earthquake to a nearly horizontal dip adjacent to the event. Combining these various observations provides insight into the links between regional tectonics and the timing and distribution of megathrust earthquakes at this segment of the central Chilean subduction zone.

Kinematic inversion of the 2008 Mw7 Iwate-Miyagi (Japan) earthquake by two independent methods: Sensitivity and resolution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallovic, Frantisek; Cirella, Antonella; Plicka, Vladimir; Piatanesi, Alessio

2013-04-01

On 14 June 2008, UTC 23:43, the border of Iwate and Miyagi prefectures was hit by an Mw7 reverse-fault type crustal earthquake. The event is known to have the largest ground acceleration observed to date (~4g), which was recorded at station IWTH25. We analyze observed strong motion data with the objective to image the event rupture process and the associated uncertainties. Two different slip inversion approaches are used, the difference between the two methods being only in the parameterization of the source model. To minimize mismodeling of the propagation effects we use crustal model obtained by full waveform inversion of aftershock records in the frequency range between 0.05-0.3 Hz. In the first method, based on linear formulation, the parameters are represented by samples of slip velocity functions along the (finely discretized) fault in a time window spanning the whole rupture duration. Such a source description is very general with no prior constraint on the nucleation point, rupture velocity, shape of the velocity function. Thus the inversion could resolve very general (unexpected) features of the rupture evolution, such as multiple rupturing, rupture-propagation reversals, etc. On the other hand, due to the relatively large number of model parameters, the inversion result is highly non-unique, with possibility of obtaining a biased solution. The second method is a non-linear global inversion technique, where each point on the fault can slip only once, following a prescribed functional form of the source time function. We invert simultaneously for peak slip velocity, slip angle, rise time and rupture time by allowing a given range of variability for each kinematic model parameter. For this reason, unlike to the linear inversion approach, the rupture process needs a smaller number of parameters to be retrieved, and is more constrained with a proper control on the allowed range of parameter values. In order to test the resolution and reliability of the retrieved models, we present a thorough analysis of the performance of the two inversion approaches. In fact, depending on the inversion strategy and the intrinsic 'non-uniqueness' of the inverse problem, the final slip maps and distribution of rupture onset times are generally different, sometimes even incompatible with each other. Great emphasis is devoted to the uncertainty estimate of both techniques. Thus we do not compare only the best fitting models, but their 'compatibility' in terms of the uncertainty limits.

The January 2001, El Salvador Earthquake: A Multi-data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallee, M.; Bouchon, M.; Schwartz, S. Y.

On January 13, 2001, a large normal intermediate depth event (Mw=7.7) occured 40 km away from the Salvadorian coast (Central America). We analysed this earthquake with different sets of seismic data. Because teleseismic waves are the only data which offer a good azimuthal coverage, we first built a kinematic source model with P, SH and surface waves provided by the IRIS,GEOSCOPE and NCEDC networks. P and SH waves were used through a theoretical Green function approach whereas surface waves were used through an Empirical Green Function (EGF) approach. The ambigu- ity between the 30-dipping plane (plunging toward Pacific Ocean) and the 60-degree dipping plane (plunging toward Central America) lead us to do a parallel analysis of the two possible planes. After having relocated the hypocentral depth to 54 km, we tried to retrieve the kinematic features of the rupture. We allowed variable rupture ve- locity (through a finite difference scheme) and variable slip and solved this inverse problem with a combination of the Neighborhood algorithm of Sambridge (1999) and the Simplex method. We found for both planes an updip and northwest rupture prop- agation yielding a centroid depth around 48km. The teleseismic data give a slight preferrence for the 60-dipping plane. In the second part of the study, we tested the two possible fault models with other seismological data, that are (1) regional broad- band data and (2) near-field accelerometers provided by Universidad Centroameri- cana (UCA). Regional data do not allow to discriminate between the two models but near-field data confirm that the fault plane is the steeper one plunging toward Central America. This event initiated at a depth of about 54km on the 60-dipping plane, and rupture propagated mostly updip and to the northwest, breaking a surface of approx- imately 30km*50km with an average slip of about 3.5 m. The large amount of slip occurs updip from the hypocenter near the plate interface. This is better explained by the bending of the subducting plate rather than by a complete decoupling of the slab.

Modeling Of Spontaneous Multiscale Roughening And Branching of Ruptures Propagating On A Slip-Weakening Frictional Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbanna, A. E.

2013-12-01

Numerous field and experimental observations suggest that faults surfaces are rough at multiple scales and tend to produce a wide range of branch sizes ranging from micro-branching to large scale secondary faults. The development and evolution of fault roughness and branching is believed to play an important role in rupture dynamics and energy partitioning. Previous work by several groups has succeeded in determining conditions under which a main rupture may branch into a secondary fault. Recently, there great progress has been made in investigating rupture propagation on rough faults with and without off-fault plasticity. Nonetheless, in most of these models the heterogeneity, whether the roughness profile or the secondary faults orientation, was built into the system from the beginning and consequently the final outcome depends strongly on the initial conditions. Here we introduce an adaptive mesh technique for modeling mode-II crack propagation on slip weakening frictional interfaces. We use a Finite Element Framework with random mesh topology that adapts to crack dynamics through element splitting and sequential insertion of frictional interfaces dictated by the failure criterion. This allows the crack path to explore non-planar paths and develop the roughness profile that is most compatible with the dynamical constraints. It also enables crack branching at different scales. We quantify energy dissipation due to the roughening process and small scale branching. We compare the results of our model to a reference case for propagation on a planar fault. We show that the small scale processes of roughening and branching influence many characteristics of the rupture propagation including the energy partitioning, rupture speed and peak slip rates. We also estimate the fracture energy required for propagating a crack on a planar fault that will be required to produce comparable results. We anticipate that this modeling approach provides an attractive methodology that complements the current efforts in modeling off-fault plasticity and damage.

The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mai, P. Martin; Schorlemmer, Danijel; Page, Morgan T.; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Asano, Kimiyuki; Causse, Mathieu; Custodio, Susana; Fan, Wenyuan; Festa, Gaetano; Galis, Martin; Gallovic, Frantisek; Imperatori, Walter; Käser, Martin; Malytskyy, Dmytro; Okuwaki, Ryo; Pollitz, Fred; Passone, Luca; Razafindrakoto, Hoby N. T.; Sekiguchi, Haruko; Song, Seok Goo; Somala, Surendra N.; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Twardzik, Cedric; van Driel, Martin; Vyas, Jagdish C.; Wang, Rongjiang; Yagi, Yuji; Zielke, Olaf

2016-01-01

Finite‐fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time‐dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in earthquake‐source inversion methods and to understand strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches used, the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project conducts a set of forward‐modeling exercises and inversion benchmarks. In this article, we describe the SIV strategy, the initial benchmarks, and current SIV results. Furthermore, we apply statistical tools for quantitative waveform comparison and for investigating source‐model (dis)similarities that enable us to rank the solutions, and to identify particularly promising source inversion approaches. All SIV exercises (with related data and descriptions) and statistical comparison tools are available via an online collaboration platform, and we encourage source modelers to use the SIV benchmarks for developing and testing new methods. We envision that the SIV efforts will lead to new developments for tackling the earthquake‐source imaging problem.

Dynamic modeling of normal faults of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo

2017-04-01

The earthquake sequence of the Central Italy in 2016 are characterized mainly by the Mw6.0 24th August, Mw5.9 26th October and Mw6.4 30th October as well as two Mw5.4 earthquakes (24th August, 26th October) (catalogue INGV). They all show normal faulting mechanisms corresponding to the Apennines's tectonics. They are aligned briefly along NNW-SSE axis, and they may not be on a single continuous fault plane. Therefore, dynamic rupture modeling of sequences should be carried out supposing co-planar normal multiple segments. We apply a Boundary Domain Method (BDM, Goto and Bielak, GJI, 2008) coupling a boundary integral equation method and a domain-based method, namely a finite difference method in this study. The Mw6.0 24th August earthquake is modeled. We use the basic information of hypocenter position, focal mechanism and potential ruptured dimension from the INGV catalogue and Tinti et al., GRL, 2016), and begin with a simple condition (homogeneous boundary condition). From our preliminary simulations, it is shown that a uniformly extended rupture model does not fit the near-field ground motions and localized heterogeneity would be required.

CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graves, Robert; Jordan, Thomas H.; Callaghan, Scott; Deelman, Ewa; Field, Edward; Juve, Gideon; Kesselman, Carl; Maechling, Philip; Mehta, Gaurang; Milner, Kevin; Okaya, David; Small, Patrick; Vahi, Karan

2011-03-01

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i.e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process.

CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, R.; Jordan, T.H.; Callaghan, S.; Deelman, E.; Field, E.; Juve, G.; Kesselman, C.; Maechling, P.; Mehta, G.; Milner, K.; Okaya, D.; Small, P.; Vahi, K.

2011-01-01

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i. e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

Analysis of Fan Waves in a Laboratory Model Simulating the Propagation of Shear Ruptures in Rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarasov, B. G.; Sadovskii, V. M.; Sadovskaya, O. V.

2017-12-01

The fan-shaped mechanism of rotational motion transmission in a system of elastically bonded slabs on flat surface, simulating the propagation of shear ruptures in super brittle rocks, is analyzed. Such ruptures appear in the Earth's crust at seismogenic depths. They propagate due to the nucleation of oblique tensile microcracks, leading to the formation of a fan domino-structure in the rupture head. A laboratory physical model was created which demonstrates the process of fan-structure wave propagation. Equations of the dynamics of rotational motion of slabs as a mechanical system with a finite number of degrees of freedom are obtained. Based on the Merson method of solving the Cauchy problem for systems of ordinary differential equations, the computational algorithm taking into account contact interaction of slabs is developed. Within the framework of a simplified mathematical model of dynamic behavior of a fan-shaped system in the approximation of a continuous medium, the approximate estimates of the length of a fan depending on the velocity of its motion are obtained. It is shown that in the absence of friction a fan can move with any velocity that does not exceed the critical value, which depends on the size, the moment of inertia of slabs, the initial angle and the elasticity coefficient of bonds. In the presence of friction a fan stops. On the basis of discrete and continuous models, the main qualitative features of the behavior of a fan-structure moving under the action of applied tangential forces, whose values in a laboratory physical model are regulated by a change in the inclination angle of the rupture plane, are analyzed. Comparison of computations and laboratory measurements and observations shows good correspondence between the results.

The transition of dynamic rupture styles in elastic media under velocity-weakening friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, A.-A.; Ampuero, J.-P.; Dalguer, L. A.; Mai, P. M.

2012-09-01

Although kinematic earthquake source inversions show dominantly pulse-like subshear rupture behavior, seismological observations, laboratory experiments and theoretical models indicate that earthquakes can operate with different rupture styles: either as pulses or cracks, that propagate at subshear or supershear speeds. The determination of rupture style and speed has important implications for ground motions and may inform about the state of stress and strength of active fault zones. We conduct 2D in-plane dynamic rupture simulations with a spectral element method to investigate the diversity of rupture styles on faults governed by velocity-and-state-dependent friction with dramatic velocity-weakening at high slip rate. Our rupture models are governed by uniform initial stresses, and are artificially initiated. We identify the conditions that lead to different rupture styles by investigating the transitions between decaying, steady state and growing pulses, cracks, sub-shear and super-shear ruptures as a function of background stress, nucleation size and characteristic velocity at the onset of severe weakening. Our models show that small changes of background stress or nucleation size may lead to dramatic changes of rupture style. We characterize the asymptotic properties of steady state and self-similar pulses as a function of background stress. We show that an earthquake may not be restricted to a single rupture style, but that complex rupture patterns may emerge that consist of multiple rupture fronts, possibly involving different styles and back-propagating fronts. We also demonstrate the possibility of a super-shear transition for pulse-like ruptures. Finally, we draw connections between our findings and recent seismological observations.

3D fault curvature and fractal roughness: Insights for rupture dynamics and ground motions using a Discontinous Galerkin method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, Thomas; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes

2017-04-01

Natural fault geometries are subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Their geometrical structure is not directly observable and may only be inferred from surface traces, or geophysical measurements. Most studies aiming at assessing the potential seismic hazard of natural faults rely on idealised shaped models, based on observable large-scale features. Yet, real faults are wavy at all scales, their geometric features presenting similar statistical properties from the micro to the regional scale. Dynamic rupture simulations aim to capture the observed complexity of earthquake sources and ground-motions. From a numerical point of view, incorporating rough faults in such simulations is challenging - it requires optimised codes able to run efficiently on high-performance computers and simultaneously handle complex geometries. Physics-based rupture dynamics hosted by rough faults appear to be much closer to source models inverted from observation in terms of complexity. Moreover, the simulated ground-motions present many similarities with observed ground-motions records. Thus, such simulations may foster our understanding of earthquake source processes, and help deriving more accurate seismic hazard estimates. In this presentation, the software package SeisSol (www.seissol.org), based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme, is used to solve the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem. The usage of tetrahedral unstructured meshes naturally allows for complicated fault geometries. However, SeisSol's high-order discretisation in time and space is not particularly suited for small-scale fault roughness. We will demonstrate modelling conditions under which SeisSol resolves rupture dynamics on rough faults accurately. The strong impact of the geometric gradient of the fault surface on the rupture process is then shown in 3D simulations. Following, the benefits of explicitly modelling fault curvature and roughness, in distinction to prescribing heterogeneous initial stress conditions on a planar fault, is demonstrated. Furthermore, we show that rupture extend, rupture front coherency and rupture speed are highly dependent on the initial amplitude of stress acting on the fault, defined by the normalized prestress factor R, the ratio of the potential stress drop over the breakdown stress drop. The effects of fault complexity are particularly pronounced for lower R. By low-pass filtering a rough fault at several cut-off wavelengths, we then try to capture rupture complexity using a simplified fault geometry. We find that equivalent source dynamics can only be obtained using a scarcely filtered fault associated with a reduced stress level. To investigate the wavelength-dependent roughness effect, the fault geometry is bandpass-filtered over several spectral ranges. We show that geometric fluctuations cause rupture velocity fluctuations of similar length scale. The impact of fault geometry is especially pronounced when the rupture front velocity is near supershear. Roughness fluctuations significantly smaller than the rupture front characteristic dimension (cohesive zone size) affect only macroscopic rupture properties, thus, posing a minimum length scale limiting the required resolution of 3D fault complexity. Lastly, the effect of fault curvature and roughness on the simulated ground-motions is assessed. Despite employing a simple linear slip weakening friction law, the simulated ground-motions compare well with estimates from ground motions prediction equations, even at relatively high frequencies.

Rupture processes of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake and the 2011 Christchurch earthquake inferred from InSAR, strong motion and teleseismic datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, S.; Koketsu, K.; Aoki, Y.

2014-12-01

The September 4, 2010, Canterbury earthquake with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.1 is a crustal earthquake in the South Island, New Zealand. The February 22, 2011, Christchurch earthquake (Mw=6.3) is the biggest aftershock of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake that is located at about 50 km to the east of the mainshock. Both earthquakes occurred on previously unrecognized faults. Field observations indicate that the rupture of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake reached the surface; the surface rupture with a length of about 30 km is located about 4 km south of the epicenter. Also various data including the aftershock distribution and strong motion seismograms suggest a very complex rupture process. For these reasons it is useful to investigate the complex rupture process using multiple data with various sensitivities to the rupture process. While previously published source models are based on one or two datasets, here we infer the rupture process with three datasets, InSAR, strong-motion, and teleseismic data. We first performed point source inversions to derive the focal mechanism of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake. Based on the focal mechanism, the aftershock distribution, the surface fault traces and the SAR interferograms, we assigned several source faults. We then performed the joint inversion to determine the rupture process of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake most suitable for reproducing all the datasets. The obtained slip distribution is in good agreement with the surface fault traces. We also performed similar inversions to reveal the rupture process of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Our result indicates steep dip and large up-dip slip. This reveals the observed large vertical ground motion around the source region is due to the rupture process, rather than the local subsurface structure. To investigate the effects of the 3-D velocity structure on characteristic strong motion seismograms of the two earthquakes, we plan to perform the inversion taking 3-D velocity structure of this region into account.

A synthetic GMPE based on deterministic simulated ground motion data obtained from dynamic rupture models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalguer, L. A.; Baumann, C.; Cauzzi, C.

2013-12-01

Empirical ground motion prediction in the very near-field and for large magnitudes is often based on extrapolation of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) outside the range where they are well constrained by recorded data. With empirical GMPEs it is also difficult to capture source-dominated ground motion patterns, such as the effects of velocity pulses induced by subshear and supershear rupture directivity, buried and surface-rupturing, hanging-wall and foot-wall, weak shallow layers, complex geometry faults and stress drop. A way to cope at least in part with these shortcomings is to augment the calibration datasets with synthetic ground motions. To this aim, physics-based dynamic rupture models - where the physical bases involved in the fault rupture are explicitly considered - appear to be a suitable approach to produce synthetic ground motions. In this contribution, we first perform an assessment of a database of synthetic ground motions generated by a suite of dynamic rupture simulations to verify compatibility of the peak ground amplitudes with current GMPEs. The synthetic data-set is composed by 360 earthquake scenarios with moment magnitudes in the range of 5.5-7, for three mechanisms of faulting (reverse, normal and strike-slip) and for both buried faults and surface rupturing faults. Second, we parameterise the synthetic dataset through a GMPE. For this purpose, we identify the basic functional forms by analyzing the variation of the synthetic peak ground motions and spectral ordinates as a function of different explanatory variables related to the earthquake source characteristics, in order to account for some of the source effects listed above. We argue that this study provides basic guidelines for the developments of future GMPEs including data from physics-based numerical simulations.

Estimation and applicability of attenuation characteristics for source parameters and scaling relations in the Garhwal Kumaun Himalaya region, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Rakesh; Paul, Ajay; Kumar, Arjun; Kumar, Parveen; Sundriyal, Y. P.

2018-06-01

Source parameters of the small to moderate earthquakes are significant for understanding the dynamic rupture process, the scaling relations of the earthquakes and for assessment of seismic hazard potential of a region. In this study, the source parameters were determined for 58 small to moderate size earthquakes (3.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.0) occurred during 2007-2015 in the Garhwal-Kumaun region. The estimated shear wave quality factor (Qβ(f)) values for each station at different frequencies have been applied to eliminate any bias in the determination of source parameters. The Qβ(f) values have been estimated by using coda wave normalization method in the frequency range 1.5-16 Hz. A frequency-dependent S wave quality factor relation is obtained as Qβ(f) = (152.9 ± 7) f(0.82±0.005) by fitting a power-law frequency dependence model for the estimated values over the whole study region. The spectral (low-frequency spectral level and corner frequency) and source (static stress drop, seismic moment, apparent stress and radiated energy) parameters are obtained assuming ω-2 source model. The displacement spectra are corrected for estimated frequency-dependent attenuation, site effect using spectral decay parameter "Kappa". The frequency resolution limit was resolved by quantifying the bias in corner frequencies, stress drop and radiated energy estimates due to finite-bandwidth effect. The data of the region shows shallow focused earthquakes with low stress drop. The estimation of Zúñiga parameter (ε) suggests the partial stress drop mechanism in the region. The observed low stress drop and apparent stress can be explained by partial stress drop and low effective stress model. Presence of subsurface fluid at seismogenic depth certainly manipulates the dynamics of the region. However, the limited event selection may strongly bias the scaling relation even after taking as much as possible precaution in considering effects of finite bandwidth, attenuation and site corrections. Although, the scaling can be improved further with the integration of large dataset of microearthquakes and use of a stable and robust approach.

Ground Motion Synthetics For Spontaneous Versus Prescribed Rupture On A 45(o) Thrust Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottschämmer, E.; Olsen, K. B.

We have compared prescribed (kinematic) and spontaneous dynamic rupture propaga- tion on a 45(o) dipping thrust fault buried up to 5 km in a half-space model, as well as ground motions on the free surface for frequencies less than 1 Hz. The computa- tions are carried out using a 3D finite-difference method with rate-and-state friction on a planar, 20 km by 20 km fault. We use a slip-weakening distance of 15 cm and a slip- velocity weakening distance of 9.2 cm/s, similar to those for the dynamic study for the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake by Nielsen and Olsen (2000) which generated satis- factory fits to selected strong motion data in the San Fernando Valley. The prescribed rupture propagation was designed to mimic that of the dynamic simulation at depth in order to isolate the dynamic free-surface effects. In this way, the results reflect the dy- namic (normal-stress) interaction with the free surface for various depths of burial of the fault. We find that the moment, peak slip and peak sliprate for the rupture breaking the surface are increased by up to 60%, 80%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the values for the scenario buried 5 km. The inclusion of these effects increases the peak displacements and velocities above the fault by factors up 3.4 and 2.9 including the increase in moment due to normal-stress effects at the free surface, and up to 2.1 and 2.0 when scaled to a Northridge-size event with surface rupture. Similar differences were found by Aagaard et al. (2001). Significant dynamic effects on the ground mo- tions include earlier arrival times caused by super-shear rupture velocities (break-out phases), in agreement with the dynamic finite-element simulations by Oglesby et al. (1998, 2000). The presence of shallow low-velocity layers tend to increase the rup- ture time and the sliprate. In particular, they promote earlier transitions to super-shear velocities and decrease the rupture velocity within the layers. Our results suggest that dynamic interaction with the free surface can significantly affect the ground motion for faults buried less than 1-3 km. We therefore recommend that strong ground motion for these scenarios be computed including such dynamic rupture effects.

Ground Motion Prediction for M7+ scenarios on the San Andreas Fault using the Virtual Earthquake Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denolle, M.; Dunham, E. M.; Prieto, G.; Beroza, G. C.

2013-05-01

There is no clearer example of the increase in hazard due to prolonged and amplified shaking in sedimentary, than the case of Mexico City in the 1985 Michoacan earthquake. It is critically important to identify what other cities might be susceptible to similar basin amplification effects. Physics-based simulations in 3D crustal structure can be used to model and anticipate those effects, but they rely on our knowledge of the complexity of the medium. We propose a parallel approach to validate ground motion simulations using the ambient seismic field. We compute the Earth's impulse response combining the ambient seismic field and coda-wave enforcing causality and symmetry constraints. We correct the surface impulse responses to account for the source depth, mechanism and duration using a 1D approximation of the local surface-wave excitation. We call the new responses virtual earthquakes. We validate the ground motion predicted from the virtual earthquakes against moderate earthquakes in southern California. We then combine temporary seismic stations on the southern San Andreas Fault and extend the point source approximation of the Virtual Earthquake Approach to model finite kinematic ruptures. We confirm the coupling between source directivity and amplification in downtown Los Angeles seen in simulations.

Near Field Modeling for the Maule Tsunami from DART, GPS and Finite Fault Solutions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcas, D.; Chamberlin, C.; Lagos, M.; Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Tang, L.; Wei, Y.

2010-12-01

The earthquake and tsunami of February, 27, 2010 in central Chile has rekindled an interest in developing techniques to predict the impact of near field tsunamis along the Chilean coastline. Following the earthquake, several initiatives were proposed to increase the density of seismic, pressure and motion sensors along the South American trench, in order to provide field data that could be used to estimate tsunami impact on the coast. However, the precise use of those data in the elaboration of a quantitative assessment of coastal tsunami damage has not been clarified. The present work makes use of seismic, Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART®) systems, and GPS measurements obtained during the Maule earthquake to initiate a number of tsunami inundation models along the rupture area by expressing different versions of the seismic crustal deformation in terms of NOAA’s tsunami unit source functions. Translation of all available real-time data into a feasible tsunami source is essential in near-field tsunami impact prediction in which an impact assessment must be generated under very stringent time constraints. Inundation results from each different source are then contrasted with field and tide gauge data by comparing arrival time, maximum wave height, maximum inundation and tsunami decay rate, using field data collected by the authors.

Finite Moment Tensors of Southern California Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, T. H.; Chen, P.; Zhao, L.

2003-12-01

We have developed procedures for inverting broadband waveforms for the finite moment tensors (FMTs) of regional earthquakes. The FMT is defined in terms of second-order polynomial moments of the source space-time function and provides the lowest order representation of a finite fault rupture; it removes the fault-plane ambiguity of the centroid moment tensor (CMT) and yields several additional parameters of seismological interest: the characteristic length L{c}, width W{c}, and duration T{c} of the faulting, as well as the directivity vector {v}{d} of the fault slip. To formulate the inverse problem, we follow and extend the methods of McGuire et al. [2001, 2002], who have successfully recovered the second-order moments of large earthquakes using low-frequency teleseismic data. We express the Fourier spectra of a synthetic point-source waveform in its exponential (Rytov) form and represent the observed waveform relative to the synthetic in terms two frequency-dependent differential times, a phase delay δ τ {p}(ω ) and an amplitude-reduction time δ τ {q}(ω ), which we measure using Gee and Jordan's [1992] isolation-filter technique. We numerically calculate the FMT partial derivatives in terms of second-order spatiotemporal gradients, which allows us to use 3D finite-difference seismograms as our isolation filters. We have applied our methodology to a set of small to medium-sized earthquakes in Southern California. The errors in anelastic structure introduced perturbations larger than the signal level caused by finite source effect. We have therefore employed a joint inversion technique that recovers the CMT parameters of the aftershocks, as well as the CMT and FMT parameters of the mainshock, under the assumption that the source finiteness of the aftershocks can be ignored. The joint system of equations relating the δ τ {p} and δ τ {q} data to the source parameters of the mainshock-aftershock cluster is denuisanced for path anomalies in both observables; this projection operation effectively corrects the mainshock data for path-related amplitude anomalies in a way similar to, but more flexible than, empirical Green function (EGF) techniques.

Seismological analyses of the 2010 March 11, Pichilemu, Chile Mw 7.0 and Mw 6.9 coastal intraplate earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruiz, Javier A.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Carrizo, Daniel; Kanamori, Hiroo; Socquet, Anne; Comte, Diana

2014-01-01

On 2010 March 11, a sequence of large, shallow continental crust earthquakes shook central Chile. Two normal faulting events with magnitudes around Mw 7.0 and Mw 6.9 occurred just 15 min apart, located near the town of Pichilemu. These kinds of large intraplate, inland crustal earthquakes are rare above the Chilean subduction zone, and it is important to better understand their relationship with the 2010 February 27, Mw 8.8, Maule earthquake, which ruptured the adjacent megathrust plate boundary. We present a broad seismological analysis of these earthquakes by using both teleseismic and regional data. We compute seismic moment tensors for both events via a W-phase inversion, and test sensitivities to various inversion parameters in order to assess the stability of the solutions. The first event, at 14 hr 39 min GMT, is well constrained, displaying a fault plane with strike of N145°E, and a preferred dip angle of 55°SW, consistent with the trend of aftershock locations and other published results. Teleseismic finite-fault inversions for this event show a large slip zone along the southern part of the fault, correlating well with the reported spatial density of aftershocks. The second earthquake (14 hr 55 min GMT) appears to have ruptured a fault branching southward from the previous ruptured fault, within the hanging wall of the first event. Modelling seismograms at regional to teleseismic distances (Δ > 10°) is quite challenging because the observed seismic wave fields of both events overlap, increasing apparent complexity for the second earthquake. We perform both point- and extended-source inversions at regional and teleseismic distances, assessing model sensitivities resulting from variations in fault orientation, dimension, and hypocentre location. Results show that the focal mechanism for the second event features a steeper dip angle and a strike rotated slightly clockwise with respect to the previous event. This kind of geological fault configuration, with secondary rupture in the hanging wall of a large normal fault, is commonly observed in extensional geological regimes. We propose that both earthquakes form part of a typical normal fault diverging splay, where the secondary fault connects to the main fault at depth. To ascertain more information on the spatial and temporal details of slip for both events, we gathered near-fault seismological and geodetic data. Through forward modelling of near-fault synthetic seismograms we build a kinematic k−2 earthquake source model with spatially distributed slip on the fault that, to first-order, explains both coseismic static displacement GPS vectors and short-period seismometer observations at the closest sites. As expected, the results for the first event agree with the focal mechanism derived from teleseismic modelling, with a magnitude Mw 6.97. Similarly, near-fault modelling for the second event suggests rupture along a normal fault, Mw 6.90, characterized by a steeper dip angle (dip = 74°) and a strike clockwise rotated (strike = 155°) with respect to the previous event.

Ground Motion Simulation for a Large Active Fault System using Empirical Green's Function Method and the Strong Motion Prediction Recipe - a Case Study of the Noubi Fault Zone -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuriyama, M.; Kumamoto, T.; Fujita, M.

2005-12-01

The 1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu Earthquake (1995) near Kobe, Japan, spurred research on strong motion prediction. To mitigate damage caused by large earthquakes, a highly precise method of predicting future strong motion waveforms is required. In this study, we applied empirical Green's function method to forward modeling in order to simulate strong ground motion in the Noubi Fault zone and examine issues related to strong motion prediction for large faults. Source models for the scenario earthquakes were constructed using the recipe of strong motion prediction (Irikura and Miyake, 2001; Irikura et al., 2003). To calculate the asperity area ratio of a large fault zone, the results of a scaling model, a scaling model with 22% asperity by area, and a cascade model were compared, and several rupture points and segmentation parameters were examined for certain cases. A small earthquake (Mw: 4.6) that occurred in northern Fukui Prefecture in 2004 were examined as empirical Green's function, and the source spectrum of this small event was found to agree with the omega-square scaling law. The Nukumi, Neodani, and Umehara segments of the 1891 Noubi Earthquake were targeted in the present study. The positions of the asperity area and rupture starting points were based on the horizontal displacement distributions reported by Matsuda (1974) and the fault branching pattern and rupture direction model proposed by Nakata and Goto (1998). Asymmetry in the damage maps for the Noubi Earthquake was then examined. We compared the maximum horizontal velocities for each case that had a different rupture starting point. In the case, rupture started at the center of the Nukumi Fault, while in another case, rupture started on the southeastern edge of the Umehara Fault; the scaling model showed an approximately 2.1-fold difference between these cases at observation point FKI005 of K-Net. This difference is considered to relate to the directivity effect associated with the direction of rupture propagation. Moreover, it was clarified that the horizontal velocities by assuming the cascade model was underestimated more than one standard deviation of empirical relation by Si and Midorikawa (1999). The scaling and cascade models showed an approximately 6.4-fold difference for the case, in which the rupture started along the southeastern edge of the Umehara Fault at observation point GIF020. This difference is significantly large in comparison with the effect of different rupture starting points, and shows that it is important to base scenario earthquake assumptions on active fault datasets before establishing the source characterization model. The distribution map of seismic intensity for the 1891 Noubi Earthquake also suggests that the synthetic waveforms in the southeastern Noubi Fault zone may be underestimated. Our results indicate that outer fault parameters (e.g., earthquake moment) related to the construction of scenario earthquakes influence strong motion prediction, rather than inner fault parameters such as the rupture starting point. Based on these methods, we will predict strong motion for approximately 140 to 150 km of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line.

Ground-Motion Variability for a Strike-Slip Earthquake from Broadband Ground-Motion Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwaki, A.; Maeda, T.; Morikawa, N.; Fujiwara, H.

2016-12-01

One of the important issues in seismic hazard analysis is the evaluation of ground-motion variability due to the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in various aspects of ground-motion simulations. This study investigates the within-event ground-motion variability in broadband ground-motion simulations for strike-slip events. We conduct ground-motion simulations for a past event (2000 MW6.6 Tottori earthquake) using a set of characterized source models (e.g. Irikura and Miyake, 2011) considering aleatory variability. Broadband ground motion is computed by a hybrid approach that combines a 3D finite-difference method (> 1 s) and the stochastic Green's function method (< 1 s), using the 3D velocity model J-SHIS v2. We consider various locations of the asperities, which are defined as the regions with large slip and stress drop within the fault, and the rupture nucleation point (hypocenter). Ground motion records at 29 K-NET and KiK-net stations are used to validate our simulations. By comparing the simulated and observed ground motion, we found that the performance of the simulations is acceptable under the condition that the source parameters are poorly constrained. In addition to the observation stations, we set 318 virtual receivers with the spatial intervals of 10 km for statistical analysis of the simulated ground motion. The maximum fault-distance is 160 km. Standard deviation (SD) of the simulated acceleration response spectra (Sa, 5% damped) of RotD50 component (Boore, 2010) is investigated at each receiver. SD from 50 different patterns of asperity locations is generally smaller than 0.15 in terms of log10 (0.34 in natural log). It shows dependence on distance at periods shorter than 1 s; SD increases as the distance decreases. On the other hand, SD from 39 different hypocenter locations is again smaller than 0.15 in log10, and showed azimuthal dependence at long periods; it increases as the rupture directivity parameter Xcosθ(Somerville et al. 1997) increases at periods longer than 1 s. The characteristics of ground-motion variability inferred from simulations can provide information on variability in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment for future earthquakes. We will further investigate the variability in other source parameters; rupture velocity and short-period level.

Earthquake rupture process recreated from a natural fault surface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Thomas E.; Minasian, Diane L.

2015-01-01

What exactly happens on the rupture surface as an earthquake nucleates, spreads, and stops? We cannot observe this directly, and models depend on assumptions about physical conditions and geometry at depth. We thus measure a natural fault surface and use its 3D coordinates to construct a replica at 0.1 m resolution to obviate geometry uncertainty. We can recreate stick-slip behavior on the resulting finite element model that depends solely on observed fault geometry. We clamp the fault together and apply steady state tectonic stress until seismic slip initiates and terminates. Our recreated M~1 earthquake initiates at contact points where there are steep surface gradients because infinitesimal lateral displacements reduce clamping stress most efficiently there. Unclamping enables accelerating slip to spread across the surface, but the fault soon jams up because its uneven, anisotropic shape begins to juxtapose new high-relief sticking points. These contacts would ultimately need to be sheared off or strongly deformed before another similar earthquake could occur. Our model shows that an important role is played by fault-wall geometry, though we do not include effects of varying fluid pressure or exotic rheologies on the fault surfaces. We extrapolate our results to large fault systems using observed self-similarity properties, and suggest that larger ruptures might begin and end in a similar way, though the scale of geometrical variation in fault shape that can arrest a rupture necessarily scales with magnitude. In other words, fault segmentation may be a magnitude dependent phenomenon and could vary with each subsequent rupture.

Dynamic rupture simulations of the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikōura earthquake: a cascading multi-fault event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, T.; Gabriel, A. A.; Ampuero, J. P.; Xu, W.; Feng, G.

2017-12-01

The Mw7.8 Kaikōura earthquake struck the Northern part of New Zealand's South Island roughly one year ago. It ruptured multiple segments of the contractional North Canterbury fault zone and of the Marlborough fault system. Field observations combined with satellite data suggest a rupture path involving partly unmapped faults separated by large stepover distances larger than 5 km, the maximum distance usually considered by the latest seismic hazard assessment methods. This might imply distant rupture transfer mechanisms generally not considered in seismic hazard assessment. We present high-resolution 3D dynamic rupture simulations of the Kaikōura earthquake under physically self-consistent initial stress and strength conditions. Our simulations are based on recent finite-fault slip inversions that constrain fault system geometry and final slip distribution from remote sensing, surface rupture and geodetic data (Xu et al., 2017). We assume a uniform background stress field, without lateral fault stress or strength heterogeneity. We use the open-source software SeisSol (www.seissol.org) which is based on an arbitrary high-order accurate DERivative Discontinuous Galerkin method (ADER-DG). Our method can account for complex fault geometries, high resolution topography and bathymetry, 3D subsurface structure, off-fault plasticity and modern friction laws. It enables the simulation of seismic wave propagation with high-order accuracy in space and time in complex media. We show that a cascading rupture driven by dynamic triggering can break all fault segments that were involved in this earthquake without mechanically requiring an underlying thrust fault. Our prefered fault geometry connects most fault segments: it does not features stepover larger than 2 km. The best scenario matches the main macroscopic characteristics of the earthquake, including its apparently slow rupture propagation caused by zigzag cascading, the moment magnitude and the overall inferred slip distribution. We observe a high sensitivity of cascading dynamics on fault-step over distance and off-fault energy dissipation.

Nonlinear Inversion for Dynamic Rupture Parameters from the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, R. M.; Olsen, K. B.

2007-12-01

The Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault has produced repeated moderate-size earthquakes at fairly regular intervals and is therefore an important target for investigations of rupture initiation, propagation and arrest, which could eventually lead to clues on earthquake prediction. The most recent member of the Parkfield series of earthquakes, the 2004 Mw6.0 event, produced a considerable amount of high-resolution strong motion data, and provides an ideal test bed for analysis of the dynamic rupture propagation. Here, we use a systematic nonlinear direct-search method to invert strong-ground motion data (less than 1 Hz) at 37 stations to obtain models of the slip weakening distance and spatially-varying stress drop (8 by 4 subfaults) on the (vertical) causative segment of the San Andreas fault (40 km long by 15 km wide), along with spatial-temporal coseismic slip distributions. The rupture and wave propagation modeling is performed by a three-dimensional finite-difference method with a slip- weakening friction law and the stress-glut dynamic-rupture formulation (Andrews, 1999), and the inversion is carried out by a neighborhood algorithm (Sambridge, 1999), minimizing the least-squares misfit between the calculated and observed seismograms. The dynamic rupture is nucleated artificially by lowering the yield stress in a 3 km by 3 km patch centered at the location of the hypocenter estimated from strong motion data. Outside the nucleation patch the yield stress is kept constant (5-10 MPa), and we constrain the slip-weakening distance to values less than 1 m. We compare the inversion results for two different velocity models: (1) a 3-D model based on the P-wave velocity structure by Thurber (2006), with S-wave and density relations based on Brocher (2005), and (2) a combination of two different 1-D layered velocity structures on either side of the fault, as proposed by Liu et al. (2006). Due to the non-uniqueness of the problem, the inversion provides an ensemble of equally valid rupture models that produce synthetics with comparable fit to the observed strong motion data. Our preliminary results with the smallest misfits, out of about 3000 tested rupture models, suggest an average slip-weakening distance of 19-81 cm and an average stress drop across the fault of 6.7 - 8.4 MPa. Compared to the kinematic inversion results by Liu et al. (2006) our models with the smallest misfits produce a larger maximum slip (up to about 81 cm) and smaller rupture area, but similar rupture duration (5-7s). The inversions carried out for the layered models tend to produce smaller misfit between data and synthetics as compared to the results using the 3D structure. This suggests that our 3D structure needs improvement, including the Vs-Vp and density-Vp relation. We expect further decrease in the misfit values by increasing the number of tested rupture models.

Material Constitutive Models for Creep and Rupture of SiC/SiC Ceramic-Matrix Composites (CMCs) Under Multiaxial Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grujicic, Mica; Galgalikar, R.; Snipes, J. S.; Ramaswami, S.

2016-05-01

Material constitutive models for creep deformation and creep rupture of the SiC/SiC ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) under general three-dimensional stress states have been developed and parameterized using one set of available experimental data for the effect of stress magnitude and temperature on the time-dependent creep deformation and rupture. To validate the models developed, another set of available experimental data was utilized for each model. The models were subsequently implemented in a user-material subroutine and coupled with a commercial finite element package in order to enable computational analysis of the performance and durability of CMC components used in high-temperature high-stress applications, such as those encountered in gas-turbine engines. In the last portion of the work, the problem of creep-controlled contact of a gas-turbine engine blade with the shroud is investigated computationally. It is assumed that the blade is made of the SiC/SiC CMC, and that the creep behavior of this material can be accounted for using the material constitutive models developed in the present work. The results clearly show that the blade-tip/shroud clearance decreases and ultimately becomes zero (the condition which must be avoided) as a function of time. In addition, the analysis revealed that if the blade is trimmed at its tip to enable additional creep deformation before blade-tip/shroud contact, creep-rupture conditions can develop in the region of the blade adjacent to its attachment to the high-rotational-speed hub.

Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, A. A.; Madden, E. H.; Ulrich, T.; Wollherr, S.

2016-12-01

Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Wollherr, Stephanie

2017-04-01

Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and fault strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, the 1994 Northridge earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

A domain decomposition approach to implementing fault slip in finite-element models of quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Knepley, M.G.; Williams, C.A.

2013-01-01

We employ a domain decomposition approach with Lagrange multipliers to implement fault slip in a finite-element code, PyLith, for use in both quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation applications. This integrated approach to solving both quasi-static and dynamic simulations leverages common finite-element data structures and implementations of various boundary conditions, discretization schemes, and bulk and fault rheologies. We have developed a custom preconditioner for the Lagrange multiplier portion of the system of equations that provides excellent scalability with problem size compared to conventional additive Schwarz methods. We demonstrate application of this approach using benchmarks for both quasi-static viscoelastic deformation and dynamic spontaneous rupture propagation that verify the numerical implementation in PyLith.

Specifying initial stress for dynamic heterogeneous earthquake source models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.; Barall, M.

2011-01-01

Dynamic rupture calculations using heterogeneous stress drop that is random and self-similar with a power-law spatial spectrum have great promise of producing realistic ground-motion predictions. We present procedures to specify initial stress for random events with a target rupture length and target magnitude. The stress function is modified in the depth dimension to account for the brittle-ductile transition at the base of the seismogenic zone. Self-similar fluctuations in stress drop are tied in this work to the long-wavelength stress variation that determines rupture length. Heterogeneous stress is related to friction levels in order to relate the model to physical concepts. In a variant of the model, there are high-stress asperities with low background stress. This procedure has a number of advantages: (1) rupture stops naturally, not at artificial barriers; (2) the amplitude of short-wavelength fluctuations of stress drop is not arbitrary: the spectrum is fixed to the long-wavelength fluctuation that determines rupture length; and (3) large stress drop can be confined to asperities occupying a small fraction of the total rupture area, producing slip distributions with enhanced peaks.

Brittle to ductile transition in a model of sheared granular materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbanna, Ahmed; Ma, Xiao

Understanding the fundamental mechanisms of deformation and failure in sheared fault gouge is critical for the development of physics-based earthquake rupture simulations that are becoming an essential ingredient in next generation hazard and risk models. To that end, we use the shear transformation zone (STZ) theory, a non-equilibrium statistical thermodynamics framework to describe viscoplastic deformation and localization in gouge materials as a first step towards developing multiscale models for earthquake source processes that are informed by high-resolution fault zone physics. We will describe an implementation of this theory in a 2D/3D finite element framework, accounting for finite deformation, under both axial and shear loading and for dry and saturated conditions. We examine conditions under which a localized shear band may form and show that the initial value of disorder plays an important role. In particular, our simulations suggest that if the material is more compact initially, the behavior is more brittle and the plastic deformation localizes with large strength drop. On the other hand, an initially loose material will show a more ductile response and the plastic deformations will be distributed more broadly. We will further show that incorporation of pore fluids alters the localization pattern and changes the stress slip response due to coupling between gouge volume changes (compaction and dilation) and pore pressure build up. Finally, we discuss the implications of our model for gouge friction and dynamic weakening.

Adjoint analysis of the source and path sensitivities of basin-guided waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, Steven M.; Roten, Daniel; Olsen, Kim B.

2012-05-01

Simulations of earthquake rupture on the southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) reveal large amplifications in the San Gabriel and Los Angeles Basins (SGB and LAB) apparently associated with long-range path effects. Geometrically similar excitation patterns can be recognized repeatedly in different SAF simulations (e.g. Love wave-like energy with predominant period around 4 s, channelled southwestwardly from the SGB into LAB), yet the amplitudes with which these distinctive wavefield patterns are excited change, depending upon source details (slip distribution, direction and velocity of rupture). We describe a method for rapid calculation of the sensitivity of such predicted wavefield features to perturbations of the source kinematics, using a time-reversed (adjoint) wavefield simulation. The calculations are analogous to those done in adjoint tomography, and the same time-reversed calculation also yields path-sensitivity kernels that give further insight into the excitation mechanism. For rupture on the southernmost 300 km of SAF, LAB excitation is greatest for slip concentrated between the northern Coachella Valley and the transverse ranges, propagating to the NE and with rupture velocities between 3250 and 3500 m s-1 along that fault segment; that is, within or slightly above the velocity range (between Rayleigh and S velocities) that is energetically precluded in the limit of a sharp rupture front, highlighting the potential value of imposing physical constraints (such as from spontaneous rupture models) on source parametrizations. LAB excitation is weak for rupture to the SW and for ruptures in either direction located north of the transverse transverse ranges, whereas Ventura Basin (VTB) is preferentially excited by NE ruptures situated north of the transverse ranges. Path kernels show that LAB excitation is mediated by surface waves deflected by the velocity contrast along the southern margin of the transverse ranges, having most of their energy in basement rock until they impinge on the eastern edge of SGB, through which they are then funnelled into LAB. VTB amplification is enhanced by a similar waveguide effect.

Ground Deformation and Sources geometry of the 2016 Central Italy Earthquake Sequence Investigated through Analytical and Numerical Modeling of DInSAR Measurements and Structural-Geological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solaro, G.; Bonano, M.; Boncio, P.; Brozzetti, F.; Castaldo, R.; Casu, F.; Cirillo, D.; Cheloni, D.; De Luca, C.; De Nardis, R.; De Novellis, V.; Ferrarini, F.; Lanari, R.; Lavecchia, G.; Manunta, M.; Manzo, M.; Pepe, A.; Pepe, S.; Tizzani, P.; Zinno, I.

2017-12-01

The 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence started on 24th August with a MW 6.1 event, where the intra-Apennine WSW-dipping Vettore-Gorzano extensional fault system released a destructive earthquake, causing 300 casualties and extensive damage to the town of Amatrice and surroundings. We generated several interferograms by using ALOS and Sentinel 1-A and B constellation data acquired on both ascending and descending orbits to show that most displacement is characterized by two main subsiding lobes of about 20 cm on the fault hanging-wall. By inverting the generated interferograms, following the Okada analytical approach, the modelling results account for two sources related to main shock and more energetic aftershock. Through Finite Element numerical modelling that jointly exploits DInSAR deformation measurements and structural-geological data, we reconstruct the 3D source of the Amatrice 2016 normal fault earthquake which well fit the main shock. The inversion shows that the co-seismic displacement area was partitioned on two distinct en echelon fault planes, which at the main event hypocentral depth (8 km) merge in one single WSW-dipping surface. Slip peaks were higher along the southern half of the Vettore fault, lower along the northern half of Gorzano fault and null in the relay zone between the two faults; field evidence of co-seismic surface rupture are coherent with the reconstructed scenario. The following seismic sequence was characterized by numerous aftershocks located southeast and northwest of the epicenter which decreased in frequency and magnitude until the end of October, when a MW 5.9 event occurred on 26th October about 25 km to the NW of the previous mainshock. Then, on 30th October, a third large event of magnitude MW 6.5 nucleated below the town of Norcia, striking the area between the two preceding events and filling the gap between the previous ruptures. Also in this case, we exploit a large dataset of DInSAR and GPS measurements to investigate the ground displacement field and to determine, by using elastic dislocation modelling, the geometries and slip distributions of the causative normal fault segments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pitarka, A.

In this project we developed GEN_SRF4 a computer program for generating kinematic rupture models, compatible with the SRF format, using Irikura and Miyake (2011) asperity-­based earthquake rupture model (IM2011, hereafter). IM2011, also known as Irkura’s recipe, has been widely used to model and simulate ground motion from earthquakes in Japan. An essential part of the method is its kinematic rupture generation technique, which is based on a deterministic rupture asperity modeling approach. The source model simplicity and efficiency of IM2011 at reproducing ground motion from earthquakes recorded in Japan makes it attractive to developers and users of the Southern Californiamore » Earthquake Center Broadband Platform (SCEC BB platform). Besides writing the code the objective of our study was to test the transportability of IM2011 to broadband simulation methods used by the SCEC BB platform. Here we test it using the Graves and Pitarka (2010) method, implemented in the platform. We performed broadband (0.1- -10 Hz) ground motion simulations for a M6.7 scenario earthquake using rupture models produced with both GEN_SRF4 and rupture generator of Graves and Pitarka (2016), (GP2016 hereafter). In the simulations we used the same Green’s functions, and same high frequency approach for calculating the low-­frequency and high-­frequency parts of ground motion, respectively.« less

Seismic source characteristics of the intraslab 2017 Chiapas-Mexico earthquake (Mw8.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez, César

2018-07-01

Inversion of the parameters characterising the seismic source of the instraslab 2017 Chiapas Mexico earthquake (Mw 8.2) shows a simple rupture process with a unidirectional propagation and directivity towards the North-West and a duration of the rupture process around 75 s. The initial point source values of strike, dip and rake are 316°, 80° and -91° respectively. The focal mechanism indicates a normal fault type within the oceanic Cocos plate, with an almost vertical fault plane for a focal depth of 59 km. The seismic data was obtained from 51 seismic stations of the global seismic network IRIS for the epicentral distances between 30° and 90°. In the finite-fault inversion, 75 seismic signals between P and SH waves were used. The epicenter is on the southeast margin of the large slip zone which extends 75 km to the northwest, this large slip zone is located to the south of the city of Arriaga. The scalar seismic moment was estimated at 2.55 ×1021Nm , equivalent to a moment magnitude of Mw 8.2. The maximum dislocation or slip is 14.5 m. As a coseismic effect, a local tsunami was generated, recorded by several tidal gauges and offshore buoys. The deformation pattern shows a coastal uplift and subsidence.

The Effects of Fault Bends on Rupture Propagation: A Parameter Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lozos, J. C.; Oglesby, D. D.; Duan, B.; Wesnousky, S. G.

2008-12-01

Segmented faults with stepovers are ubiquitous, and occur at a variety of scales, ranging from small stepovers on the San Jacinto Fault, to the large-scale stepover on of the San Andreas Fault between Tejon Pass and San Gorgonio Pass. Because this type of fault geometry is so prevalent, understanding how rupture propagates through such systems is important for evaluating seismic hazard at different points along these faults. In the present study, we systematically investigate how far rupture will propagate through a fault with a linked (i.e., continuous fault) stepover, based on the length of the linking fault segment and the angle that connects the linking segment to adjacent segments. We conducted dynamic models of such systems using a two-dimensional finite element code (Duan and Oglesby 2007). The fault system in our models consists of three segments: two parallel 10km-long faults linked at a specified angle by a linking segment of between 500 m and 5 km. This geometry was run both as a extensional system and a compressional system. We observed several distinct rupture behaviors, with systematic differences between compressional and extensional cases. Both shear directions rupture straight through the stepover for very shallow stepover angles. In compressional systems with steeper angles, rupture may jump ahead from the stepover segment onto the far segment; whether or not rupture on this segment reaches critical patch size and slips fully is also a function of angle and stepover length. In some compressional cases, if the angle is steep enough and the stepover short enough, rupture may jump over the step entirely and propagate down the far segment without touching the linking segment. In extensional systems, rupture jumps from the nucleating segment onto the linking segment even at shallow angles, but at steeper angles, rupture propagates through without jumping. It is easier to propagate through a wider range of angles in extensional cases. In both extensional and compressional cases, for each stepover length there exists a maximum angle through which rupture can fully propagate; this maximum angle decreases asymptotically to a minimum value as the stepover length increases. We also found that a wave associated with a stopping phase coming from the far end of the fault may restart rupture and induce full propagation after a significant delay in some cases where the initial rupture terminated.

Transpressional Rupture Cascade of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wenbin; Feng, Guangcai; Meng, Lingsen; Zhang, Ailin; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Bürgmann, Roland; Fang, Lihua

2018-03-01

Large earthquakes often do not occur on a simple planar fault but involve rupture of multiple geometrically complex faults. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand, involved the rupture of at least 21 faults, propagating from southwest to northeast for about 180 km. Here we combine space geodesy and seismology techniques to study subsurface fault geometry, slip distribution, and the kinematics of the rupture. Our finite-fault slip model indicates that the fault motion changes from predominantly right-lateral slip near the epicenter to transpressional slip in the northeast with a maximum coseismic surface displacement of about 10 m near the intersection between the Kekerengu and Papatea faults. Teleseismic back projection imaging shows that rupture speed was overall slow (1.4 km/s) but faster on individual fault segments (approximately 2 km/s) and that the conjugate, oblique-reverse, north striking faults released the largest high-frequency energy. We show that the linking Conway-Charwell faults aided in propagation of rupture across the step over from the Humps fault zone to the Hope fault. Fault slip cascaded along the Jordan Thrust, Kekerengu, and Needles faults, causing stress perturbations that activated two major conjugate faults, the Hundalee and Papatea faults. Our results shed important light on the study of earthquakes and seismic hazard evaluation in geometrically complex fault systems.

Meta-analysis of peak wall stress in ruptured, symptomatic and intact abdominal aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Khosla, S; Morris, D R; Moxon, J V; Walker, P J; Gasser, T C; Golledge, J

2014-10-01

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is an important cause of sudden death; however, there are currently incomplete means to predict the risk of AAA rupture. AAA peak wall stress (PWS) can be estimated using finite element analysis (FEA) methods from computed tomography (CT) scans. The question is whether AAA PWS can predict AAA rupture. The aim of this systematic review was to compare PWS in patients with ruptured and intact AAA. The MEDLINE database was searched on 25 May 2013. Case-control studies assessing PWS in asymptomatic intact, and acutely symptomatic or ruptured AAA from CT scans using FEA were included. Data were extracted independently. A random-effects model was used to calculate standard mean differences (SMDs) for PWS measurements. Nine studies assessing 348 individuals were identified and used in the meta-analysis. Results from 204 asymptomatic intact and 144 symptomatic or ruptured AAAs showed that PWS was significantly greater in the symptomatic/ ruptured AAAs compared with the asymptomatic intact AAAs (SMD 0·95, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·71 to 1·18; P < 0·001). The findings remained significant after adjustment for mean systolic blood pressure, standardized at 120 mmHg (SMD 0·68, 0·39 to 0·96; P < 0·001). Minimal heterogeneity between studies was noted (I(2)  = 0 per cent). This study suggests that PWS is greater in symptomatic or ruptured AAA than in asymptomatic intact AAA. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamic ruptures on faults of complex geometry: insights from numerical simulations, from large-scale curvature to small-scale fractal roughness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, T.; Gabriel, A. A.

2016-12-01

The geometry of faults is subject to a large degree of uncertainty. As buried structures being not directly observable, their complex shapes may only be inferred from surface traces, if available, or through geophysical methods, such as reflection seismology. As a consequence, most studies aiming at assessing the potential hazard of faults rely on idealized fault models, based on observable large-scale features. Yet, real faults are known to be wavy at all scales, their geometric features presenting similar statistical properties from the micro to the regional scale. The influence of roughness on the earthquake rupture process is currently a driving topic in the computational seismology community. From the numerical point of view, rough faults problems are challenging problems that require optimized codes able to run efficiently on high-performance computing infrastructure and simultaneously handle complex geometries. Physically, simulated ruptures hosted by rough faults appear to be much closer to source models inverted from observation in terms of complexity. Incorporating fault geometry on all scales may thus be crucial to model realistic earthquake source processes and to estimate more accurately seismic hazard. In this study, we use the software package SeisSol, based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme, to run our numerical simulations. SeisSol allows solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem and the wave propagation problem with high-order accuracy in space and time efficiently on large-scale machines. In this study, the influence of fault roughness on dynamic rupture style (e.g. onset of supershear transition, rupture front coherence, propagation of self-healing pulses, etc) at different length scales is investigated by analyzing ruptures on faults of varying roughness spectral content. In particular, we investigate the existence of a minimum roughness length scale in terms of rupture inherent length scales below which the rupture ceases to be sensible. Finally, the effect of fault geometry on ground-motions, in the near-field, is considered. Our simulations feature a classical linear slip weakening on the fault and a viscoplastic constitutive model off the fault. The benefits of using a more elaborate fast velocity-weakening friction law will also be considered.

Post-1906 stress recovery of the San Andreas fault system calculated from three-dimensional finite element analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.

2002-01-01

The M = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake cast a stress shadow across the San Andreas fault system, inhibiting other large earthquakes for at least 75 years. The duration of the stress shadow is a key question in San Francisco Bay area seismic hazard assessment. This study presents a three-dimensional (3-D) finite element simulation of post-1906 stress recovery. The model reproduces observed geologic slip rates on major strike-slip faults and produces surface velocity vectors comparable to geodetic measurements. Fault stressing rates calculated with the finite element model are evaluated against numbers calculated using deep dislocation slip. In the finite element model, tectonic stressing is distributed throughout the crust and upper mantle, whereas tectonic stressing calculated with dislocations is focused mostly on faults. In addition, the finite element model incorporates postseismic effects such as deep afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation in the upper mantle. More distributed stressing and postseismic effects in the finite element model lead to lower calculated tectonic stressing rates and longer stress shadow durations (17-74 years compared with 7-54 years). All models considered indicate that the 1906 stress shadow was completely erased by tectonic loading no later than 1980. However, the stress shadow still affects present-day earthquake probability. Use of stressing rate parameters calculated with the finite element model yields a 7-12% reduction in 30-year probability caused by the 1906 stress shadow as compared with calculations not incorporating interactions. The aggregate interaction-based probability on selected segments (not including the ruptured San Andreas fault) is 53-70% versus the noninteraction range of 65-77%.

The effects of core-reflected waves on finite fault inversions with teleseismic body wave data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Yunyi; Ni, Sidao; Wei, Shengji; Almeida, Rafael; Zhang, Han

2017-11-01

Teleseismic body waves are essential for imaging rupture processes of large earthquakes. Earthquake source parameters are usually characterized by waveform analyses such as finite fault inversions using only turning (direct) P and SH waves without considering the reflected phases from the core-mantle boundary (CMB). However, core-reflected waves such as ScS usually have amplitudes comparable to direct S waves due to the total reflection from the CMB and might interfere with the S waves used for inversion, especially at large epicentral distances for long duration earthquakes. In order to understand how core-reflected waves affect teleseismic body wave inversion results, we develop a procedure named Multitel3 to compute Green's functions that contain turning waves (direct P, pP, sP, direct S, sS and reverberations in the crust) and core-reflected waves (PcP, pPcP, sPcP, ScS, sScS and associated reflected phases from the CMB). This ray-based method can efficiently generate synthetic seismograms for turning and core-reflected waves independently, with the flexibility to take into account the 3-D Earth structure effect on the timing between these phases. The performance of this approach is assessed through a series of numerical inversion tests on synthetic waveforms of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal earthquake. We also compare this improved method with the turning-wave only inversions and explore the stability of the new procedure when there are uncertainties in a priori information (such as fault geometry and epicentre location) or arrival time of core-reflected phases. Finally, a finite fault inversion of the 2005 Mw8.7 Nias-Simeulue earthquake is carried out using the improved Green's functions. Using enhanced Green's functions yields better inversion results as expected. While the finite source inversion with conventional P and SH waves is able to recover large-scale characteristics of the earthquake source, by adding PcP and ScS phases, the inverted slip model and moment rate function better match previous results incorporating field observations, geodetic and seismic data.

Dynamic fracture network around faults: implications for earthquake ruptures, ground motion and energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okubo, K.; Bhat, H. S.; Rougier, E.; Lei, Z.; Knight, E. E.; Klinger, Y.

2017-12-01

Numerous studies have suggested that spontaneous earthquake ruptures can dynamically induce failure in secondary fracture network, regarded as damage zone around faults. The feedbacks of such fracture network play a crucial role in earthquake rupture, its radiated wave field and the total energy budget. A novel numerical modeling tool based on the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), which accounts for the main rupture propagation and nucleation/propagation of secondary cracks, was used to quantify the evolution of the fracture network and evaluate its effects on the main rupture and its associated radiation. The simulations were performed with the FDEM-based software tool, Hybrid Optimization Software Suite (HOSSedu) developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. We first modeled an earthquake rupture on a planar strike-slip fault surrounded by a brittle medium where secondary cracks can be nucleated/activated by the earthquake rupture. We show that the secondary cracks are dynamically generated dominantly on the extensional side of the fault, mainly behind the rupture front, and it forms an intricate network of fractures in the damage zone. The rupture velocity thereby significantly decreases, by 10 to 20 percent, while the supershear transition length increases in comparison to the one with purely elastic medium. It is also observed that the high-frequency component (10 to 100 Hz) of the near-field ground acceleration is enhanced by the dynamically activated fracture network, consistent with field observations. We then conducted the case study in depth with various sets of initial stress state, and friction properties, to investigate the evolution of damage zone. We show that the width of damage zone decreases in depth, forming "flower-like" structure as the characteristic slip distance in linear slip-weakening law, or the fracture energy on the fault, is kept constant with depth. Finally, we compared the fracture energy on the fault to the energy absorbed by the secondary fracture network to better understand the earthquake energy budget. We conclude that the secondary fracture network plays an important role on the dynamic earthquake rupture, its radiated wave field and the overall energy budget.

Structural control on the Tohoku earthquake rupture process investigated by 3D FEM, tsunami and geodetic data

PubMed Central

Romano, F.; Trasatti, E.; Lorito, S.; Piromallo, C.; Piatanesi, A.; Ito, Y.; Zhao, D.; Hirata, K.; Lanucara, P.; Cocco, M.

2014-01-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw = 9.1) highlighted previously unobserved features for megathrust events, such as the large slip in a relatively limited area and the shallow rupture propagation. We use a Finite Element Model (FEM), taking into account the 3D geometrical and structural complexities up to the trench zone, and perform a joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data to retrieve the earthquake slip distribution. We obtain a close spatial correlation between the main deep slip patch and the local seismic velocity anomalies, and large shallow slip extending also to the North coherently with a seismically observed low-frequency radiation. These observations suggest that the friction controlled the rupture, initially confining the deeper rupture and then driving its propagation up to the trench, where it spreads laterally. These findings are relevant to earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment because they may help to detect regions likely prone to rupture along the megathrust, and to constrain the probability of high slip near the trench. Our estimate of ~40 m slip value around the JFAST (Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project) drilling zone contributes to constrain the dynamic shear stress and friction coefficient of the fault obtained by temperature measurements to ~0.68 MPa and ~0.10, respectively. PMID:25005351

Strain-dependent Damage Evolution and Velocity Reduction in Fault Zones Induced by Earthquake Rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, J.; Duan, B.

2009-12-01

Low-velocity fault zones (LVFZs) with reduced seismic velocities relative to the surrounding wall rocks are widely observed around active faults. The presence of such a zone will affect rupture propagation, near-field ground motion, and off-fault damage in subsequent earth-quakes. In this study, we quantify the reduction of seismic velocities caused by dynamic rup-ture on a 2D planar fault surrounded by a low-velocity fault zone. First, we implement the damage rheology (Lyakhovsky et al. 1997) in EQdyna (Duan and Oglesby 2006), an explicit dynamic finite element code. We further extend this damage rheology model to include the dependence of strains on crack density. Then, we quantify off-fault continuum damage distribution and velocity reduction induced by earthquake rupture with the presence of a preexisting LVFZ. We find that the presence of a LVFZ affects the tempo-spatial distribu-tions of off-fault damage. Because lack of constraint in some damage parameters, we further investigate the relationship between velocity reduction and these damage prameters by a large suite of numerical simulations. Slip velocity, slip, and near-field ground motions computed from damage rheology are also compared with those from off-fault elastic or elastoplastic responses. We find that the reduction in elastic moduli during dynamic rupture has profound impact on these quantities.

Structural control on the Tohoku earthquake rupture process investigated by 3D FEM, tsunami and geodetic data.

PubMed

Romano, F; Trasatti, E; Lorito, S; Piromallo, C; Piatanesi, A; Ito, Y; Zhao, D; Hirata, K; Lanucara, P; Cocco, M

2014-07-09

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw = 9.1) highlighted previously unobserved features for megathrust events, such as the large slip in a relatively limited area and the shallow rupture propagation. We use a Finite Element Model (FEM), taking into account the 3D geometrical and structural complexities up to the trench zone, and perform a joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data to retrieve the earthquake slip distribution. We obtain a close spatial correlation between the main deep slip patch and the local seismic velocity anomalies, and large shallow slip extending also to the North coherently with a seismically observed low-frequency radiation. These observations suggest that the friction controlled the rupture, initially confining the deeper rupture and then driving its propagation up to the trench, where it spreads laterally. These findings are relevant to earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment because they may help to detect regions likely prone to rupture along the megathrust, and to constrain the probability of high slip near the trench. Our estimate of ~40 m slip value around the JFAST (Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project) drilling zone contributes to constrain the dynamic shear stress and friction coefficient of the fault obtained by temperature measurements to ~0.68 MPa and ~0.10, respectively.

Modeling of Mechanical Stress Exerted by Cholesterol Crystallization on Atherosclerotic Plaques.

PubMed

Luo, Yuemei; Cui, Dongyao; Yu, Xiaojun; Chen, Si; Liu, Xinyu; Tang, Hongying; Wang, Xianghong; Liu, Linbo

2016-01-01

Plaque rupture is the critical cause of cardiovascular thrombosis, but the detailed mechanisms are not fully understood. Recent studies have found abundant cholesterol crystals in ruptured plaques, and it has been proposed that the rapid expansion of cholesterol crystals in a limited space during crystallization may contribute to plaque rupture. To evaluate the effect of cholesterol crystal growth on atherosclerotic plaques, we modeled the expansion of cholesterol crystals during the crystallization process in the necrotic core and estimated the stress on the thin cap with different arrangements of cholesterol crystals. We developed a two-dimensional finite element method model of atherosclerotic plaques containing expanding cholesterol crystals and investigated the effect of the magnitude and distribution of crystallization on the peak circumferential stress born by the cap. Using micro-optical coherence tomography (μOCT), we extracted the cross-sectional geometric information of cholesterol crystals in human atherosclerotic aorta tissue ex vivo and applied the information to the model. The results demonstrate that (1) the peak circumference stress is proportionally dependent on the cholesterol crystal growth; (2) cholesterol crystals at the cap shoulder impose the highest peak circumference stress; and (3) spatial distributions of cholesterol crystals have a significant impact on the peak circumference stress: evenly distributed cholesterol crystals exert less peak circumferential stress on the cap than concentrated crystals.

Kinematic source inversions of teleseismic data based on the QUESO library for uncertainty quantification and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielke, O.; McDougall, D.; Mai, P. M.; Babuska, I.

2014-12-01

One fundamental aspect of seismic hazard mitigation is gaining a better understanding of the rupture process. Because direct observation of the relevant parameters and properties is not possible, other means such as kinematic source inversions are used instead. By constraining the spatial and temporal evolution of fault slip during an earthquake, those inversion approaches may enable valuable insights in the physics of the rupture process. However, due to the underdetermined nature of this inversion problem (i.e., inverting a kinematic source model for an extended fault based on seismic data), the provided solutions are generally non-unique. Here we present a statistical (Bayesian) inversion approach based on an open-source library for uncertainty quantification (UQ) called QUESO that was developed at ICES (UT Austin). The approach has advantages with respect to deterministic inversion approaches as it provides not only a single (non-unique) solution but also provides uncertainty bounds with it. Those uncertainty bounds help to qualitatively and quantitatively judge how well constrained an inversion solution is and how much rupture complexity the data reliably resolve. The presented inversion scheme uses only tele-seismically recorded body waves but future developments may lead us towards joint inversion schemes. After giving an insight in the inversion scheme ifself (based on delayed rejection adaptive metropolis, DRAM) we explore the method's resolution potential. For that, we synthetically generate tele-seismic data, add for example different levels of noise and/or change fault plane parameterization and then apply our inversion scheme in the attempt to extract the (known) kinematic rupture model. We conclude with exemplary inverting real tele-seismic data of a recent large earthquake and compare those results with deterministically derived kinematic source models provided by other research groups.

The Extrapolation of Families of Curves by Recurrence Relations, with Application to Creep-Rupture Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mendelson, A.; Manson, S. S.

1960-01-01

A method using finite-difference recurrence relations is presented for direct extrapolation of families of curves. The method is illustrated by applications to creep-rupture data for several materials and it is shown that good results can be obtained without the necessity for any of the usual parameter concepts.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin; Slaughter, Andrew; Veeraraghavan, Swetha

Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) is a finite element application that aims at analyzing the response of 3-D soil-structure systems to natural and man-made hazards such as earthquakes, floods and fire. MASTODON currently focuses on the simulation of seismic events and has the capability to perform extensive ‘source-to-site’ simulations including earthquake fault rupture, nonlinear wave propagation and nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis. MASTODON is being developed to be a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework that enables analysts to not only perform deterministic analyses, but also easily perform probabilistic or stochastic simulations for the purpose of risk assessment.

A novel strategy to translate the biomechanical rupture risk of abdominal aortic aneurysms to their equivalent diameter risk: method and retrospective validation.

PubMed

Gasser, T C; Nchimi, A; Swedenborg, J; Roy, J; Sakalihasan, N; Böckler, D; Hyhlik-Dürr, A

2014-03-01

To translate the individual abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patient's biomechanical rupture risk profile to risk-equivalent diameters, and to retrospectively test their predictability in ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Biomechanical parameters of ruptured and non-ruptured AAAs were retrospectively evaluated in a multicenter study. General patient data and high resolution computer tomography angiography (CTA) images from 203 non-ruptured and 40 ruptured aneurysmal infrarenal aortas. Three-dimensional AAA geometries were semi-automatically derived from CTA images. Finite element (FE) models were used to predict peak wall stress (PWS) and peak wall rupture index (PWRI) according to the individual anatomy, gender, blood pressure, intra-luminal thrombus (ILT) morphology, and relative aneurysm expansion. Average PWS diameter and PWRI diameter responses were evaluated, which allowed for the PWS equivalent and PWRI equivalent diameters for any individual aneurysm to be defined. PWS increased linearly and PWRI exponentially with respect to maximum AAA diameter. A size-adjusted analysis showed that PWS equivalent and PWRI equivalent diameters were increased by 7.5 mm (p = .013) and 14.0 mm (p < .001) in ruptured cases when compared to non-ruptured controls, respectively. In non-ruptured cases the PWRI equivalent diameters were increased by 13.2 mm (p < .001) in females when compared with males. Biomechanical parameters like PWS and PWRI allow for a highly individualized analysis by integrating factors that influence the risk of AAA rupture like geometry (degree of asymmetry, ILT morphology, etc.) and patient characteristics (gender, family history, blood pressure, etc.). PWRI and the reported annual risk of rupture increase similarly with the diameter. PWRI equivalent diameter expresses the PWRI through the diameter of the average AAA that has the same PWRI, i.e. is at the same biomechanical risk of rupture. Consequently, PWRI equivalent diameter facilitates a straightforward interpretation of biomechanical analysis and connects to diameter-based guidelines for AAA repair indication. PWRI equivalent diameter reflects an additional diagnostic parameter that may provide more accurate clinical data for AAA repair indication. Copyright © 2013 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Broadband Rupture Process of the 2001 Kunlun Fault (Mw 7.8) Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antolik, M.; Abercrombie, R.; Ekstrom, G.

2003-04-01

We model the source process of the 14 November, 2001 Kunlun fault earthquake using broadband body waves from the Global Digital Seismographic Network (P, SH) and both point-source and distributed slip techniques. The point-source mechanism technique is a non-linear iterative inversion that solves for focal mechanism, moment rate function, depth, and rupture directivity. The P waves reveal a complex rupture process for the first 30 s, with smooth unilateral rupture toward the east along the Kunlun fault accounting for the remainder of the 120 s long rupture. The obtained focal mechanism for the main portion of the rupture is (strike=96o, dip=83o, rake=-8o) which is consistent with both the Harvard CMT solution and observations of the surface rupture. The seismic moment is 5.29×1020 Nm and the average rupture velocity is ˜3.5 km/s. However, the initial portion of the P waves cannot be fit at all with this mechanism. A strong pulse visible in the first 20 s can only be matched with an oblique-slip subevent (MW ˜ 6.8-7.0) involving a substantial normal faulting component, but the nodal planes of this mechanism are not well constrained. The first-motion polarities of the P waves clearly require a strike mechanism with a similar orientation as the Kunlun fault. Field observations of the surface rupture (Xu et al., SRL, 73, No. 6) reveal a small 26 km-long strike-slip rupture at the far western end (90.5o E) with a 45-km long gap and extensional step-over between this rupture and the main Kunlun fault rupture. We hypothesize that the initial fault break occurred on this segment, with release of the normal faulting energy as a continuous rupture through the extensional step, enabling transfer of the slip to the main Kunlun fault. This process is similar to that which occurred during the 2002 Denali fault (MW 7.9) earthquake sequence except that 11 days elapsed between the October 23 (M_W 6.7) foreshock and the initial break of the Denali earthquake along a thrust fault.

On the scale dependence of earthquake stress drop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cocco, Massimo; Tinti, Elisa; Cirella, Antonella

2016-10-01

We discuss the debated issue of scale dependence in earthquake source mechanics with the goal of providing supporting evidence to foster the adoption of a coherent interpretative framework. We examine the heterogeneous distribution of source and constitutive parameters during individual ruptures and their scaling with earthquake size. We discuss evidence that slip, slip-weakening distance and breakdown work scale with seismic moment and are interpreted as scale dependent parameters. We integrate our estimates of earthquake stress drop, computed through a pseudo-dynamic approach, with many others available in the literature for both point sources and finite fault models. We obtain a picture of the earthquake stress drop scaling with seismic moment over an exceptional broad range of earthquake sizes (-8 < MW < 9). Our results confirm that stress drop values are scattered over three order of magnitude and emphasize the lack of corroborating evidence that stress drop scales with seismic moment. We discuss these results in terms of scale invariance of stress drop with source dimension to analyse the interpretation of this outcome in terms of self-similarity. Geophysicists are presently unable to provide physical explanations of dynamic self-similarity relying on deterministic descriptions of micro-scale processes. We conclude that the interpretation of the self-similar behaviour of stress drop scaling is strongly model dependent. We emphasize that it relies on a geometric description of source heterogeneity through the statistical properties of initial stress or fault-surface topography, in which only the latter is constrained by observations.

Improved finite-source inversion through joint measurements of rotational and translational ground motions: a numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinwald, Michael; Bernauer, Moritz; Igel, Heiner; Donner, Stefanie

2016-10-01

With the prospects of seismic equipment being able to measure rotational ground motions in a wide frequency and amplitude range in the near future, we engage in the question of how this type of ground motion observation can be used to solve the seismic source inverse problem. In this paper, we focus on the question of whether finite-source inversion can benefit from additional observations of rotational motion. Keeping the overall number of traces constant, we compare observations from a surface seismic network with 44 three-component translational sensors (classic seismometers) with those obtained with 22 six-component sensors (with additional three-component rotational motions). Synthetic seismograms are calculated for known finite-source properties. The corresponding inverse problem is posed in a probabilistic way using the Shannon information content to measure how the observations constrain the seismic source properties. We minimize the influence of the source receiver geometry around the fault by statistically analyzing six-component inversions with a random distribution of receivers. Since our previous results are achieved with a regular spacing of the receivers, we try to answer the question of whether the results are dependent on the spatial distribution of the receivers. The results show that with the six-component subnetworks, kinematic source inversions for source properties (such as rupture velocity, rise time, and slip amplitudes) are not only equally successful (even that would be beneficial because of the substantially reduced logistics installing half the sensors) but also statistically inversions for some source properties are almost always improved. This can be attributed to the fact that the (in particular vertical) gradient information is contained in the additional motion components. We compare these effects for strike-slip and normal-faulting type sources and confirm that the increase in inversion quality for kinematic source parameters is even higher for the normal fault. This indicates that the inversion benefits from the additional information provided by the horizontal rotation rates, i.e., information about the vertical displacement gradient.

Evaluating the Possibility of a joint San Andreas-Imperial Fault Rupture in the Salton Trough Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyriakopoulos, C.; Oglesby, D. D.; Meltzner, A. J.; Rockwell, T. K.

2016-12-01

A geodynamic investigation of possible earthquakes in a given region requires both field data and numerical simulations. In particular, the investigation of past earthquakes is also a fundamental part of understanding the earthquake potential of the Salton Trough region. Geological records from paleoseismic trenches inform us of past ruptures (length, magnitude, timing), while dynamic rupture models allow us to evaluate numerically the mechanics of such earthquakes. The two most recent events (Mw 6.4 1940 and Mw 6.9 1979) on the Imperial fault (IF) both ruptured up to the northern end of the mapped fault, giving the impression that rupture doesn't propagate further north. This result is supported by small displacements, 20 cm, measured at the Dogwood site near the end of the mapped rupture in each event. However, 3D paleoseismic data from the same site corresponding to the most recent pre-1940 event (1710 CE) and 5th (1635 CE) and 6th events back revealed up to 1.5 m of slip in those events. Since we expect the surface displacement to decrease toward the termination of a rupture, we postulate that in these earlier cases the rupture propagated further north than in 1940 or 1979. Furthermore, paleoseismic data from the Coachella site (Philibosian et al., 2011) on the San Andreas fault (SAF) indicates slip events ca. 1710 CE and 1588-1662 CE. In other words, the timing of two large paleoseismic displacements on the IF cannot be distinguished from the timing of the two most recent events on the southern SAF, leaving a question: is it possible to have through-going rupture in the Salton Trough? We investigate this question through 3D dynamic finite element rupture modeling. In our work, we considered two scenarios: rupture initiated on the IF propagating northward, and rupture initiated on the SAF propagating southward. Initial results show that, in the first case, rupture propagates north of the mapped northern terminus of the IF only under certain pre-stress conditions, such as values of the seismic parameter S = 0.45 to 2.0, and tends to stop for S = 2.5. If rupture initiates in the north on the SAF, we find that it is easier for it to propagate across the entire stepover region. The results have implications for potential earthquakes in the region, with the possibility of a preferred direction of rupture propagation through the stepover.

A guide to differences between stochastic point-source and stochastic finite-fault simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atkinson, G.M.; Assatourians, K.; Boore, D.M.; Campbell, K.; Motazedian, D.

2009-01-01

Why do stochastic point-source and finite-fault simulation models not agree on the predicted ground motions for moderate earthquakes at large distances? This question was posed by Ken Campbell, who attempted to reproduce the Atkinson and Boore (2006) ground-motion prediction equations for eastern North America using the stochastic point-source program SMSIM (Boore, 2005) in place of the finite-source stochastic program EXSIM (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005) that was used by Atkinson and Boore (2006) in their model. His comparisons suggested that a higher stress drop is needed in the context of SMSIM to produce an average match, at larger distances, with the model predictions of Atkinson and Boore (2006) based on EXSIM; this is so even for moderate magnitudes, which should be well-represented by a point-source model. Why? The answer to this question is rooted in significant differences between point-source and finite-source stochastic simulation methodologies, specifically as implemented in SMSIM (Boore, 2005) and EXSIM (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005) to date. Point-source and finite-fault methodologies differ in general in several important ways: (1) the geometry of the source; (2) the definition and application of duration; and (3) the normalization of finite-source subsource summations. Furthermore, the specific implementation of the methods may differ in their details. The purpose of this article is to provide a brief overview of these differences, their origins, and implications. This sets the stage for a more detailed companion article, "Comparing Stochastic Point-Source and Finite-Source Ground-Motion Simulations: SMSIM and EXSIM," in which Boore (2009) provides modifications and improvements in the implementations of both programs that narrow the gap and result in closer agreement. These issues are important because both SMSIM and EXSIM have been widely used in the development of ground-motion prediction equations and in modeling the parameters that control observed ground motions.

3D dynamic rupture simulation and local tomography studies following the 2010 Haiti earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douilly, Roby

The 2010 M7.0 Haiti earthquake was the first major earthquake in southern Haiti in 250 years. As this event could represent the beginning of a new period of active seismicity in the region, and in consideration of how vulnerable the population is to earthquake damage, it is important to understand the nature of this event and how it has influenced seismic hazards in the region. Most significantly, the 2010 earthquake occurred on the secondary Leogâne thrust fault (two fault segments), not the Enriquillo Fault, the major strike-slip fault in the region, despite it being only a few kilometers away. We first use a finite element model to simulate rupture along the Leogâne fault. We varied friction and background stress to investigate the conditions that best explain observed surface deformations and why the rupture did not to jump to the nearby Enriquillo fault. Our model successfully replicated rupture propagation along the two segments of the Leogâne fault, and indicated that a significant stress increase occurred on the top and to the west of the Enriquillo fault. We also investigated the potential ground shaking level in this region if a rupture similar to the Mw 7.0 2010 Haiti earthquake were to occur on the Enriquillo fault. We used a finite element method and assumptions on regional stress to simulate low frequency dynamic rupture propagation for the segment of the Enriquillo fault closer to the capital. The high-frequency ground motion components were calculated using the specific barrier model, and the hybrid synthetics were obtained by combining the low-frequencies ( 1Hz) from the stochastic simulation using matched filtering at a crossover frequency of 1 Hz. The average horizontal peak ground acceleration, computed at several sites of interest through Port-au-Prince (the capital), has a value of 0.35g. Finally, we investigated the 3D local tomography of this region. We considered 897 high-quality records from the earthquake catalog as recorded by temporary station deployments. We only considered events that had at least 6 P and 6 S arrivals, and an azimuthal gap less then 180 degrees, to simultaneously invert for hypocenters and 3D velocity structure in southern Haiti. We used the program VELEST to define a minimum 1D velocity model, which was then used as a starting model in the computer algorithm SIMULPS14 to produce the 3D tomography. Our results show a pronounced low velocity zone across the Logne fault, which is consistent with the sedimentary basin location from the geologic map. We also observe a southeast low velocity zone, which is consistent with a predefined structure in the morphology. Low velocity structure usually correlates with broad zones of deformation, such as the presence of cracks or faults, or from the presence of fluid in the crust. This work provides information that can be used in future studies focusing on how changes in material properties can affect rupture propagation, which is useful to assess the seismic hazard that Haiti and other regions are facing.

Detailed Mapping of Historical and Preinstrumental Earthquake Ruptures in Central Asia Using Multi-Scale, Multi-Platform Photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, A. J.; Walker, R. T.; Parsons, B.; Ren, Z.; Ainscoe, E. A.; Abdrakhmatov, K.; Mackenzie, D.; Arrowsmith, R.; Gruetzner, C.

2016-12-01

In regions of the planet with long historical records, known past seismic events can be attributed to specific fault sources through the identification and measurement of single-event scarps in high-resolution imagery and topography. The level of detail captured by modern remote sensing is now sufficient to map and measure complete earthquake ruptures that were originally only sparsely mapped or overlooked entirely. We can thus extend the record of mapped earthquake surface ruptures into the preinstrumental period and capture the wealth of information preserved in the numerous historical earthquake ruptures throughout regions like Central Asia. We investigate two major late 19th and early 20th century earthquakes that are well located macroseismically but whose fault sources had proved enigmatic in the absence of detailed imagery and topography. We use high-resolution topographic models derived from photogrammetry of satellite, low-altitude, and ground-based optical imagery to map and measure the coseismic scarps of the 1889 M8.3 Chilik, Kazakhstan and 1932 M7.6 Changma, China earthquakes. Measurement of the scarps on the combined imagery and topography reveals the extent and slip distribution of coseismic rupture in each of these events, showing both earthquakes involved multiple faults with variable kinematics. We use a 1-m elevation model of the Changma fault derived from Pleiades satellite imagery to map the changing kinematics of the 1932 rupture along strike. For the 1889 Chilik earthquake we use 1.5-m SPOT-6 satellite imagery to produce a regional elevation model of the fault ruptures, from which we identify three distinct, intersecting fault systems that each have >20 km of fresh, single-event scarps. Along sections of each of these faults we construct high resolution (330 points per sq m) elevation models using quadcopter- and helikite-mounted cameras. From the detailed topography we measure single-event oblique offsets of 6-10 m, consistent with the large inferred magnitude of the 1889 Chilik event. High resolution, photogrammetric topography offers a low-cost, effective way to thoroughly map rupture traces and measure coseismic displacements for past fault ruptures, extending our record of coseismic displacements into a past rich with formerly sparsely documented ruptures.

Sources of shaking and flooding during the Tohoku-Oki earthquake: a mixture of rupture styles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wei, Shengji; Graves, Robert; Helmberger, Don; Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Jiang, Junle

2012-01-01

Modeling strong ground motions from great subduction zone earthquakes is one of the great challenges of computational seismology. To separate the rupture characteristics from complexities caused by 3D sub-surface geology requires an extraordinary data set such as provided by the recent Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Here we combine deterministic inversion and dynamically guided forward simulation methods to model over one thousand high-rate GPS and strong motion observations from 0 to 0.25 Hz across the entire Honshu Island. Our results display distinct styles of rupture with a deeper generic interplate event (~Mw8.5) transitioning to a shallow tsunamigenic earthquake (~Mw9.0) at about 25 km depth in a process driven by a strong dynamic weakening mechanism, possibly thermal pressurization. This source model predicts many important features of the broad set of seismic, geodetic and seafloor observations providing a major advance in our understanding of such great natural hazards.

Dynamic Source Inversion of a M6.5 Intraslab Earthquake in Mexico: Application of a New Parallel Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz-Mojica, J. J.; Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Madariaga, R.; Singh, S. K.; Iglesias, A.

2013-05-01

We introduce a novel approach for imaging the earthquakes dynamics from ground motion records based on a parallel genetic algorithm (GA). The method follows the elliptical dynamic-rupture-patch approach introduced by Di Carli et al. (2010) and has been carefully verified through different numerical tests (Díaz-Mojica et al., 2012). Apart from the five model parameters defining the patch geometry, our dynamic source description has four more parameters: the stress drop inside the nucleation and the elliptical patches; and two friction parameters, the slip weakening distance and the change of the friction coefficient. These parameters are constant within the rupture surface. The forward dynamic source problem, involved in the GA inverse method, uses a highly accurate computational solver for the problem, namely the staggered-grid split-node. The synthetic inversion presented here shows that the source model parameterization is suitable for the GA, and that short-scale source dynamic features are well resolved in spite of low-pass filtering of the data for periods comparable to the source duration. Since there is always uncertainty in the propagation medium as well as in the source location and the focal mechanisms, we have introduced a statistical approach to generate a set of solution models so that the envelope of the corresponding synthetic waveforms explains as much as possible the observed data. We applied the method to the 2012 Mw6.5 intraslab Zumpango, Mexico earthquake and determined several fundamental source parameters that are in accordance with different and completely independent estimates for Mexican and worldwide earthquakes. Our weighted-average final model satisfactorily explains eastward rupture directivity observed in the recorded data. Some parameters found for the Zumpango earthquake are: Δτ = 30.2+/-6.2 MPa, Er = 0.68+/-0.36x10^15 J, G = 1.74+/-0.44x10^15 J, η = 0.27+/-0.11, Vr/Vs = 0.52+/-0.09 and Mw = 6.64+/-0.07; for the stress drop, radiated energy, fracture energy, radiation efficiency, rupture velocity and moment magnitude, respectively. Mw6.5 intraslab Zumpango earthquake location, stations location and tectonic setting in central Mexico

Studying Near-Trench Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Megathrust Rupture Using Differential Multi-Beam Bathymetry before and after the Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, T.; Fujiwara, T.; Kodaira, S.; Wang, K.; He, J.

2014-12-01

Large coseismic motion (up to ~ 31 m) of seafloor GPS sites during the 2011 M 9 Tohoku earthquake suggests large rupture at shallow depths of the megathrust. However, compilation of all published rupture models, constrained by the near-field seafloor geodetic observation and also various other datasets, shows large uncertainties in the slip of the most near-trench (within ~ 50 km from the trench) part of the megathrust. Repeated multi-beam bathymetry surveys that cover the trench axis, carried out by Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, for the first time recorded coseismic deformation in a megathrust earthquake at the trench. In previous studies of the differential bathymetry (DB) before and after the earthquake to determine coseismic fault slip, only the rigid-body translation component of the upper plate deformation was considered. In this work, we construct Synthetic Differential Bathymetry (SDB) using an elastic deformation model and make comparisons with the observed DB. We use a 3-D elastic Finite Element model with actual fault geometry of the Japan trench subduction zone and allowing the rupture to breach the trench. The SDB can well predict short-wavelength variations in the observed DB. Our tests using different coseismic slip models show that the internal elastic deformation of the hanging wall plays an important role in generating DB. Comparing the SDB with the observed DB suggests that the largest slip is located within ~ 50 km from the trench. The SDB proves to be the most effective tool to evaluate the performance of different rupture models in predicting near-trench slip. Our SDB work will further explore the updip slip variation. The SDB may help to constrain the slip gradient in the updip direction and may help to determine whether the large shallow slip in the Tohoku earthquake plateaued at the trench or before reaching the trench. Resolving these issues will provide some of the key tests for various competing models that were proposed to explain the large shallow rupture in this event.

3D Ground-Motion Simulations for Magnitude 9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Sedimentary Basin Amplification, Rupture Directivity, and Ground-Motion Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankel, A. D.; Wirth, E. A.; Marafi, N.; Vidale, J. E.; Stephenson, W. J.

2017-12-01

We have produced broadband (0-10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for Mw 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone by combining synthetics from 3D finite-difference simulations at low frequencies (≤ 1 Hz) and stochastic synthetics at high frequencies (≥ 1 Hz). These synthetic ground motions are being used to evaluate building response, liquefaction, and landslides, as part of the M9 Project of the University of Washington, in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey. The kinematic rupture model is composed of high stress drop sub-events with Mw 8, similar to those observed in the Mw 9.0 Tohoku, Japan and Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquakes, superimposed on large background slip with lower slip velocities. The 3D velocity model is based on active and passive-source seismic tomography studies, seismic refraction and reflection surveys, and geologic constraints. The Seattle basin portion of the model has been validated by simulating ground motions from local earthquakes. We have completed 50 3D simulations of Mw 9 earthquakes using a variety of hypocenters, slip distributions, sub-event locations, down-dip limits of rupture, and other parameters. For sites not in deep sedimentary basins, the response spectra of the synthetics for 0.1-6.0 s are similar, on average, to the values from the BC Hydro ground motion prediction equations (GMPE). For periods of 7-10 s, the synthetic response spectra exceed these GMPE, partially due to the shallow dip of the plate interface. We find large amplification factors of 2-5 for response spectra at periods of 1-10 s for locations in the Seattle and Tacoma basins, relative to sites outside the basins. This amplification depends on the direction of incoming waves and rupture directivity. The basin amplification is caused by surface waves generated at basin edges from incoming S-waves, as well as amplification and focusing of S-waves and surface waves by the 3D basin structure. The inter-event standard deviation of response spectral amplitudes from the synthetics is larger for sites nearer the coast, because of their higher sensitivity to the sub-event locations and rupture directivity. The total standard deviations of spectral accelerations from 30 simulations for periods greater than 2 s are similar to those determined in the BC Hydro GMPE from strong-motion recordings in subduction zones.

Experimental Modeling of Dynamic Shallow Dip-Slip Faulting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uenishi, K.

2010-12-01

In our earlier study (AGU 2005, SSJ 2005, JPGU 2006), using a finite difference technique, we have conducted some numerical simulations related to the source dynamics of shallow dip-slip earthquakes, and suggested the possibility of the existence of corner waves, i.e., shear waves that carry concentrated kinematic energy and generate extremely strong particle motions on the hanging wall of a nonvertical fault. In the numerical models, a dip-slip fault is located in a two-dimensional, monolithic linear elastic half space, and the fault plane dips either vertically or 45 degrees. We have investigated the seismic wave field radiated by crack-like rupture of this straight fault. If the fault rupture, initiated at depth, arrests just below or reaches the free surface, four Rayleigh-type pulses are generated: two propagating along the free surface into the opposite directions to the far field, the other two moving back along the ruptured fault surface (interface) downwards into depth. These downward interface pulses may largely control the stopping phase of the dynamic rupture, and in the case the fault plane is inclined, on the hanging wall the interface pulse and the outward-moving Rayleigh surface pulse interact with each other and the corner wave is induced. On the footwall, the ground motion is dominated simply by the weaker Rayleigh pulse propagating along the free surface because of much smaller interaction between this Rayleigh and the interface pulse. The generation of the downward interface pulses and corner wave may play a crucial role in understanding the effects of the geometrical asymmetry on the strong motion induced by shallow dip-slip faulting, but it has not been well recognized so far, partly because those waves are not expected for a fault that is located and ruptures only at depth. However, the seismological recordings of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, the 2004 Niigata-ken Chuetsu, Japan, earthquakes as well as a more recent one in Iwate-Miyagi Inland, Japan in 2008, for example, seem to support the need for careful mechanical consideration. In this contribution, utilizing two-dimensional dynamic photoelasticity in conjunction with high speed digital cinematography, we try to perform "fully controlled" laboratory experiments of dip-slip faulting and observe the propagation of interface pulses and corner waves mentioned above. A birefringent material containing a (model) dip-slip fault plane is prepared, and rupture is initiated in that material using an Nd:YAG laser system, and the evolution of time-dependent isochromatic fringe patterns (contours of maximum in-plane shear stress) associated with the dynamic process of shallow dip-slip faulting is recorded. Use of Nd:YAG laser pulses, instead of ignition of explosives, for rupture initiation may enhance the safety of laboratory fracture experiments and enable us to evaluate the energy entering the material (and hence the energy balance in the system) more precisely, possibly in a more controlled way.

Heterogeneous rupture on homogenous faults: Three-dimensional spontaneous rupture simulations with thermal pressurization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Yumi; Kuge, Keiko; Kase, Yuko

2008-11-01

To understand role of fluid on earthquake rupture processes, we investigated effects of thermal pressurization on spatial variation of dynamic rupture by computing spontaneous rupture propagation on a rectangular fault. We found thermal pressurization can cause heterogeneity of rupture even on a fault of uniform properties. On drained faults, tractions drop linearly with increasing slip in the same way everywhere. However, by changing the drained condition to an undrained one, the slip-weakening curves become non-linear and depend on locations on faults with small shear zone thickness w, and the dynamic frictional stresses vary spatially and temporally. Consequently, the super-shear transition fault length decreases for small w, and the final slip distribution can have some peaks regardless of w, especially on undrained faults. These effects should be taken into account of determining dynamic rupture parameters and modeling earthquake cycles when the presence of fluid is suggested in the source regions.

Kinematic Source Rupture Process of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake, a MW6.9 thrust earthquake in northeast Japan, using Strong Motion Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.; Iwata, T.

2008-12-01

The 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake (MJMA7.2) on June 14, 2008, is a thrust type inland crustal earthquake, which occurred in northeastern Honshu, Japan. In order to see strong motion generation process of this event, the source rupture process is estimated by the kinematic waveform inversion using strong motion data. Strong motion data of the K-NET and KiK-net stations and Aratozawa Dam are used. These stations are located 3-94 km from the epicenter. Original acceleration time histories are integrated into velocity and band- pass filtered between 0.05 and 1 Hz. For obtaining the detailed source rupture process, appropriate velocity structure model for Green's functions should be used. We estimated one dimensional velocity structure model for each strong motion station by waveform modeling of aftershock records. The elastic wave velocity, density, and Q-values for four sedimentary layers are assumed following previous studies. The thickness of each sedimentary layer depends on the station, which is estimated to fit the observed aftershock's waveforms by the optimization using the genetic algorithm. A uniform layered structure model is assumed for crust and upper mantle below the seismic bedrock. We succeeded to get a reasonable velocity structure model for each station to give a good fit of the main S-wave part in the observation of aftershocks. The source rupture process of the mainshock is estimated by the linear kinematic waveform inversion using multiple time windows (Hartzell and Heaton, 1983). A fault plane model is assumed following the moment tensor solution by F-net, NIED. The strike and dip angle is 209° and 51°, respectively. The rupture starting point is fixed at the hypocenter located by the JMA. The obtained source model shows a large slip area in the shallow portion of the fault plane approximately 6 km southwest of the hypocenter. The rupture of the asperity finishes within about 9 s. This large slip area corresponds to the area with surface break reported by the field survey group (e.g., AIST/GSJ, 2008), which supports the existence of the large slip close to the ground surface. But, most of surface offset found by the field survey are less than 0.5 m whereas the slip amount of the shallow asperity of the source inversion result is 3-4 m. In north of the hypocenter, the estimated slip amount is small. Slip direction is almost pure dip-slip for the entire fault (Northwest side goes up against southeast side). Total seismic moment is 2.6× 1019 Nm (MW 6.9). Acknowledgments: Strong motion data of K-NET and KiK-net operated by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention are used. Strong motion data of Aratozawa Dam obtained by Miyagi prefecture government is also used in the study.

Imaging the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, earthquake with teleseismic P waves: A cascading rupture across multiple faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hao; Koper, Keith D.; Pankow, Kristine; Ge, Zengxi

2017-05-01

The 13 November 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, earthquake was investigated using teleseismic P waves. Backprojection of high-frequency P waves from two regional arrays shows unilateral rupture of at least two southwest-northeast striking faults with an average rupture speed of 1.4-1.6 km/s and total duration of 100 s. Guided by these backprojection results, 33 globally distributed low-frequency P waves were inverted for a finite fault model (FFM) of slip. The FFM showed evidence of several subevents; however, it lacked significant moment release near the epicenter, where a large burst of high-frequency energy was observed. A local strong-motion network recorded strong shaking near the epicenter; hence, for this earthquake the distribution of backprojection energy is superior to the FFM as a guide of strong shaking. For future large earthquakes that occur in regions without strong-motion networks, initial shaking estimates could benefit from backprojection constraints.

Finite Element Modeling of Non-linear Coupled Interacting Fault System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, H. L.; Zhang, J.; Wyborn, D.

2009-04-01

PANDAS - Parallel Adaptive static/dynamic Nonlinear Deformation Analysis System - a novel supercomputer simulation tool is developed for simulating the highly non-linear coupled geomechanical-fluid flow-thermal systems involving heterogeneously fractured geomaterials. PANDAS includes the following key components: Pandas/Pre, ESyS_Crustal, Pandas/Thermo, Pandas/Fluid and Pandas/Post as detailed in the following: • Pandas/Pre is developed to visualise the microseismicity events recorded during the hydraulic stimulation process to further evaluate the fracture location and evolution and geological setting of a certain reservoir, and then generate the mesh by it and/or other commercial graphics software (such as Patran) for the further finite element analysis of various cases; The Delaunay algorithm is applied as a suitable method for mesh generation using such a point set; • ESyS_Crustal is a finite element code developed for the interacting fault system simulation, which employs the adaptive static/dynamic algorithm to simulate the dynamics and evolution of interacting fault systems and processes that are relevant on short to mediate time scales in which several dynamic phenomena related with stick-slip instability along the faults need to be taken into account, i.e. (a). slow quasi-static stress accumulation, (b) rapid dynamic rupture, (c) wave propagation and (d) corresponding stress redistribution due to the energy release along the multiple fault boundaries; those are needed to better describe ruputure/microseimicity/earthquake related phenomena with applications in earthquake forecasting, hazard quantification, exploration, and environmental problems. It has been verified with various available experimental results[1-3]; • Pandas/Thermo is a finite element method based module for the thermal analysis of the fractured porous media; the temperature distribution is calculated from the heat transfer induced by the thermal boundary conditions without/with the coupled fluid effects and the geomechanical energy conversion for the pure/coupled thermal analysis. • Pandas/Fluid is a finite element method based module for simulating the fluid flow in the fractured porous media; the fluid flow velocity and pressure are calculated from energy equilibrium equations without/together with the coupling effects of the thermal and solid rock deformation for an independent/coupled fluid flow analysis; • Pandas/Post is to visualise the simulation results through the integration of VTK and/or Patran. All the above modules can be used independently/together to simulate individual/coupled phenomena (such as interacting fault system dynamics, heat flow and fluid flow) without/with coupling effects. PANDAS has been applied to the following issues: • visualisation of the microseismic events to monitor and determine where/how the underground rupture proceeds during a hydraulic stimulation, to generate the mesh using the recorded data for determining the domain of the ruptured zone and to evaluate the material parameters (i.e. the permeability) for the further numerical analysis; • interacting fault system simulation to determine the relevant complicated dynamic rupture process. • geomechanical-fluid flow coupling analysis to investigate the interactions between fluid flow and deformation in the fractured porous media under different loading conditions. • thermo-fluid flow coupling analysis of a fractured geothermal reservoir system. PANDAS will be further developed for a multiscale simulation of multiphase dynamic behaviour for a certain fractured geothermal reservoir. More details and additional application examples will be given during the presentation. References [1] Xing, H. L., Makinouchi, A. and Mora, P. (2007). Finite element modeling of interacting fault system, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 163, 106-121.doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2007.05.006 [2] Xing, H. L., Mora, P., Makinouchi, A. (2006). An unified friction description and its application to simulation of frictional instability using finite element method. Philosophy Magazine, 86, 3453-3475 [3] Xing, H. L., Mora, P.(2006). Construction of an intraplate fault system model of South Australia, and simulation tool for the iSERVO institute seed project.. Pure and Applied Geophysics. 163, 2297-2316. DOI 10.1007/s00024-006-0127-x

New perspectives on self-similarity for shallow thrust earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denolle, Marine A.; Shearer, Peter M.

2016-09-01

Scaling of dynamic rupture processes from small to large earthquakes is critical to seismic hazard assessment. Large subduction earthquakes are typically remote, and we mostly rely on teleseismic body waves to extract information on their slip rate functions. We estimate the P wave source spectra of 942 thrust earthquakes of magnitude Mw 5.5 and above by carefully removing wave propagation effects (geometrical spreading, attenuation, and free surface effects). The conventional spectral model of a single-corner frequency and high-frequency falloff rate does not explain our data, and we instead introduce a double-corner-frequency model, modified from the Haskell propagating source model, with an intermediate falloff of f-1. The first corner frequency f1 relates closely to the source duration T1, its scaling follows M0∝T13 for Mw<7.5, and changes to M0∝T12 for larger earthquakes. An elliptical rupture geometry better explains the observed scaling than circular crack models. The second time scale T2 varies more weakly with moment, M0∝T25, varies weakly with depth, and can be interpreted either as expressions of starting and stopping phases, as a pulse-like rupture, or a dynamic weakening process. Estimated stress drops and scaled energy (ratio of radiated energy over seismic moment) are both invariant with seismic moment. However, the observed earthquakes are not self-similar because their source geometry and spectral shapes vary with earthquake size. We find and map global variations of these source parameters.

Long-period spectral features of the Sumatra-Andaman 2004 earthquake rupture process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clévédé, E.; Bukchin, B.; Favreau, P.; Mostinskiy, A.; Aoudia, A.; Panza, G. F.

2012-12-01

The goal of this study is to investigate the spatial variability of the seismic radiation spectral content of the Sumatra-Andaman 2004 earthquake. We determine the integral estimates of source geometry, duration and rupture propagation given by the stress glut moments of total degree 2 of different source models. These models are constructed from a single or a joint use of different observations including seismology, geodesy, altimetry and tide gauge data. The comparative analysis shows coherency among the different models and no strong contradictions are found between the integral estimates of geodetic and altimetric models, and those retrieved from very long period seismic records (up to 2000-3000 s). The comparison between these results and the integral estimates derived from observed surface wave spectra in period band from 500 to 650 s suggests that the northern part of the fault (to the north of 8°N near Nicobar Islands) did not radiate long period seismic waves, that is, period shorter than 650 s at least. This conclusion is consistent with the existing composite short and long rise time tsunami model: with short rise time of slip in the southern part of the fault and very long rise time of slip at the northern part. This complex space-time slip evolution can be reproduced by a simple dynamic model of the rupture assuming a crude phenomenological mechanical behaviour of the rupture interface at the fault scales combining an effective slip-controlled exponential weakening effect, related to possible friction and damage breakdown processes of the fault zone, and an effective linear viscous strengthening effect, related to possible interface lubrication processes. While the rupture front speed remains unperturbed with initial short slip duration, a slow creep wave propagates behind the rupture front in the case of viscous effects accounting for the long slip duration and the radiation characteristics in the northern segment.

Low-frequency source parameters of twelve large earthquakes. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harabaglia, Paolo

1993-01-01

A global survey of the low-frequency (1-21 mHz) source characteristics of large events are studied. We are particularly interested in events unusually enriched in low-frequency and in events with a short-term precursor. We model the source time function of 12 large earthquakes using teleseismic data at low frequency. For each event we retrieve the source amplitude spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 21 mHz with the Silver and Jordan method and the phase-shift spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 11 mHz with the Riedesel and Jordan method. We then model the source time function by fitting the two spectra. Two of these events, the 1980 Irpinia, Italy, and the 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, are shallow-depth complex events that took place on multiple faults. In both cases the source time function has a length of about 100 seconds. By comparison Westaway and Jackson find 45 seconds for the Irpinia event and Houston and Kanamori about 50 seconds for the Akita-Oki earthquake. The three deep events and four of the seven intermediate-depth events are fast rupturing earthquakes. A single pulse is sufficient to model the source spectra in the frequency range of our interest. Two other intermediate-depth events have slower rupturing processes, characterized by a continuous energy release lasting for about 40 seconds. The last event is the intermediate-depth 1983 Peru-Ecuador earthquake. It was first recognized as a precursive event by Jordan. We model it with a smooth rupturing process starting about 2 minutes before the high frequency origin time superimposed to an impulsive source.

Mechanical characterization of atherosclerotic arteries using finite-element modeling: feasibility study on mock arteries.

PubMed

Pazos, Valérie; Mongrain, Rosaire; Tardif, Jean-Claude

2010-06-01

Clinical studies on lipid-lowering therapy have shown that changing the composition of lipid pools reduced significantly the risk of cardiac events associated with plaque rupture. It has been shown also that changing the composition of the lipid pool affects its mechanical properties. However, knowledge about the mechanical properties of human atherosclerotic lesions remains limited due to the difficulty of the experiments. This paper aims to assess the feasibility of characterizing a lipid pool embedded in the wall of a pressurized vessel using finite-element simulations and an optimization algorithm. Finite-element simulations of inflation experiments were used together with nonlinear least squares algorithm to estimate the material model parameters of the wall and of the inclusion. An optimal fit of the simulated experiment and the real experiment was sought with the parameter estimation algorithm. The method was first tested on a single-layer polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) cryogel stenotic vessel, and then, applied on a double-layered PVA cryogel stenotic vessel with a lipid inclusion.

Fault kinematics and active tectonics of the Sabah margin: Insights from the 2015, Mw 6.0, Mt. Kinabalu earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Wei, S.; Tapponnier, P.; WANG, X.; Lindsey, E.; Sieh, K.

2016-12-01

A gravity-driven "Mega-Landslide" model has been evoked to explain the shortening seen offshore Sabah and Brunei in oil-company seismic data. Although this model is considered to account simultaneously for recent folding at the edge of the submarine NW Sabah trough and normal faulting on the Sabah shelf, such a gravity-driven model is not consistent with geodetic data or critical examination of extant structural restorations. The rupture that produced the 2015 Mw6.0 Mt. Kinabalu earthquake is also inconsistent with the gravity-driven model. Our teleseismic analysis shows that the centroid depth of that earthquake's mainshock was 13 to 14 km, and its favored fault-plane solution is a 60° NW-dipping normal fault. Our finite-rupture model exhibits major fault slip between 5 and 15 km depth, in keeping with our InSAR analysis, which shows no appreciable surface deformation. Both the hypocentral depth and the depth of principal slip are far too deep to be explained by gravity-driven failure, as such a model would predict a listric normal fault connecting at a much shallower depth with a very gentle detachment. Our regional mapping of tectonic landforms also suggests the recent rupture is part of a 200-km long system of narrowly distributed active extension in northern Sabah. Taken together, the nature of the 2015 rupture, the belt of active normal faults, and structural consideration indicate that active tectonic shortening plays the leading role in controlling the overall deformation of northern Sabah and that deep-seated, onland normal faulting likely results from an abrupt change in the dip-angle of the collision interface beneath the Sabah accretionary prism.

Dynamics of a fluid-driven crack in three dimensions by the finite difference method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouet, Bernard

1986-12-01

The finite difference method is applied to the study of the dynamics of a three-dimensional fluid-filled crack excited into resonance by the sudden failure of a small barrier of area ΔS on the crack surface. The impulse response of the crack is examined for various ratios of crack width to crack length and for several values of the crack stiffness C = (b/μ)(L/d), where b is the bulk modulus of the fluid, μ is the rigidity of the solid, and L and d are the crack length and crack thickness, respectively. The motion of the crack is characterized by distinct time scales representing the duration of brittle failure and the periods of acoustic resonance in the lateral and longitudinal dimensions of the source. The rupture has a duration proportional to the area of crack expansion and is the trigger responsible for the excitation of the crack into resonance; the resonant periods are proportional to the crack stiffness and to the width and length of the crack. The crack wave sustaining the resonance is analogous to the tube wave propagating in a fluid-filled borehole. It is dispersive, showing a phase velocity that decreases with increasing wavelength. Its wave speed is always lower than the acoustic velocity of the fluid and shows a strong dependence on the crack stiffness, decreasing as the stiffness increases. The initial motion of the crack surface is an opening, and the radiated far-field compressional wave starts with a strong but brief compression which has a duration proportional to the crack stiffness and size of the rupture area; the amplitude of this pulse increases with the area of rupture but decreases with increasing stiffness. Flow into the newly created cavity triggers a pressure drop in the fluid, which produces a partial collapse of the wall propagated over the crack surface at the speed of the crack wave. The collapse of the crack surface generates a weak long-period component of dilatation following the compressional first motion in the far-field P wave train; the dilatational component is clearer in the signal from stiffer cracks when seen in the direction of the rupture. The energy loss by radiation is stronger for high frequencies, resulting in a progressive enrichment of the crack response in lower frequencies over the duration of resonance. These source characteristics translate into a far-field signature that is marked by a high-frequency content near its onset and dominated by a longer-period component in its coda. The source duration shows a strong dependence on the fluid viscosity and associated viscous damping at the crack wall.

Skull Defects in Finite Element Head Models for Source Reconstruction from Magnetoencephalography Signals

PubMed Central

Lau, Stephan; Güllmar, Daniel; Flemming, Lars; Grayden, David B.; Cook, Mark J.; Wolters, Carsten H.; Haueisen, Jens

2016-01-01

Magnetoencephalography (MEG) signals are influenced by skull defects. However, there is a lack of evidence of this influence during source reconstruction. Our objectives are to characterize errors in source reconstruction from MEG signals due to ignoring skull defects and to assess the ability of an exact finite element head model to eliminate such errors. A detailed finite element model of the head of a rabbit used in a physical experiment was constructed from magnetic resonance and co-registered computer tomography imaging that differentiated nine tissue types. Sources of the MEG measurements above intact skull and above skull defects respectively were reconstructed using a finite element model with the intact skull and one incorporating the skull defects. The forward simulation of the MEG signals reproduced the experimentally observed characteristic magnitude and topography changes due to skull defects. Sources reconstructed from measured MEG signals above intact skull matched the known physical locations and orientations. Ignoring skull defects in the head model during reconstruction displaced sources under a skull defect away from that defect. Sources next to a defect were reoriented. When skull defects, with their physical conductivity, were incorporated in the head model, the location and orientation errors were mostly eliminated. The conductivity of the skull defect material non-uniformly modulated the influence on MEG signals. We propose concrete guidelines for taking into account conducting skull defects during MEG coil placement and modeling. Exact finite element head models can improve localization of brain function, specifically after surgery. PMID:27092044

Cyberinfrastructure for the Unified Study of Earth Structure and Earthquake Sources in Complex Geologic Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.; Chen, P.; Jordan, T. H.; Olsen, K. B.; Maechling, P.; Faerman, M.

2004-12-01

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) is developing a Community Modeling Environment (CME) to facilitate the computational pathways of physics-based seismic hazard analysis (Maechling et al., this meeting). Major goals are to facilitate the forward modeling of seismic wavefields in complex geologic environments, including the strong ground motions that cause earthquake damage, and the inversion of observed waveform data for improved models of Earth structure and fault rupture. Here we report on a unified approach to these coupled inverse problems that is based on the ability to generate and manipulate wavefields in densely gridded 3D Earth models. A main element of this approach is a database of receiver Green tensors (RGT) for the seismic stations, which comprises all of the spatial-temporal displacement fields produced by the three orthogonal unit impulsive point forces acting at each of the station locations. Once the RGT database is established, synthetic seismograms for any earthquake can be simply calculated by extracting a small, source-centered volume of the RGT from the database and applying the reciprocity principle. The partial derivatives needed for point- and finite-source inversions can be generated in the same way. Moreover, the RGT database can be employed in full-wave tomographic inversions launched from a 3D starting model, because the sensitivity (Fréchet) kernels for travel-time and amplitude anomalies observed at seismic stations in the database can be computed by convolving the earthquake-induced displacement field with the station RGTs. We illustrate all elements of this unified analysis with an RGT database for 33 stations of the California Integrated Seismic Network in and around the Los Angeles Basin, which we computed for the 3D SCEC Community Velocity Model (SCEC CVM3.0) using a fourth-order staggered-grid finite-difference code. For a spatial grid spacing of 200 m and a time resolution of 10 ms, the calculations took ~19,000 node-hours on the Linux cluster at USC's High-Performance Computing Center. The 33-station database with a volume of ~23.5 TB was archived in the SCEC digital library at the San Diego Supercomputer Center using the Storage Resource Broker (SRB). From a laptop, anyone with access to this SRB collection can compute synthetic seismograms for an arbitrary source in the CVM in a matter of minutes. Efficient approaches have been implemented to use this RGT database in the inversions of waveforms for centroid and finite moment tensors and tomographic inversions to improve the CVM. Our experience with these large problems suggests areas where the cyberinfrastructure currently available for geoscience computation needs to be improved.

Retrieving rupture history using waveform inversions in time sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, L.; Xu, C.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

The rupture history of large earthquakes is generally regenerated using the waveform inversion through utilizing seismological waveform records. In the waveform inversion, based on the superposition principle, the rupture process is linearly parameterized. After discretizing the fault plane into sub-faults, the local source time function of each sub-fault is usually parameterized using the multi-time window method, e.g., mutual overlapped triangular functions. Then the forward waveform of each sub-fault is synthesized through convoluting the source time function with its Green function. According to the superposition principle, these forward waveforms generated from the fault plane are summarized in the recorded waveforms after aligning the arrival times. Then the slip history is retrieved using the waveform inversion method after the superposing of all forward waveforms for each correspond seismological waveform records. Apart from the isolation of these forward waveforms generated from each sub-fault, we also realize that these waveforms are gradually and sequentially superimposed in the recorded waveforms. Thus we proposed a idea that the rupture model is possibly detachable in sequent rupture times. According to the constrained waveform length method emphasized in our previous work, the length of inverted waveforms used in the waveform inversion is objectively constrained by the rupture velocity and rise time. And one essential prior condition is the predetermined fault plane that limits the duration of rupture time, which means the waveform inversion is restricted in a pre-set rupture duration time. Therefore, we proposed a strategy to inverse the rupture process sequentially using the progressively shift rupture times as the rupture front expanding in the fault plane. And we have designed a simulation inversion to test the feasibility of the method. Our test result shows the prospect of this idea that requiring furthermore investigation.

Inelastic off-fault response and three-dimensional dynamics of earthquake rupture on a strike-slip fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.; Ma, Shuo

2010-01-01

Large dynamic stress off the fault incurs an inelastic response and energy loss, which contributes to the fracture energy, limiting the rupture and slip velocity. Using an explicit finite element method, we model three-dimensional dynamic ruptures on a vertical strike-slip fault in a homogeneous half-space. The material is subjected to a pressure-dependent Drucker-Prager yield criterion. Initial stresses in the medium increase linearly with depth. Our simulations show that the inelastic response is confined narrowly to the fault at depth. There the inelastic strain is induced by large dynamic stresses associated with the rupture front that overcome the effect of the high confining pressure. The inelastic zone increases in size as it nears the surface. For material with low cohesion (~5 MPa) the inelastic zone broadens dramatically near the surface, forming a "flowerlike" structure. The near-surface inelastic strain occurs in both the extensional and the compressional regimes of the fault, induced by seismic waves ahead of the rupture front under a low confining pressure. When cohesion is large (~10 MPa), the inelastic strain is significantly reduced near the surface and confined mostly to depth. Cohesion, however, affects the inelastic zone at depth less significantly. The induced shear microcracks show diverse orientations near the surface, owing to the low confining pressure, but exhibit mostly horizontal slip at depth. The inferred rupture-induced anisotropy at depth has the fast wave direction along the direction of the maximum compressive stress.

Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2002-01-01

In contrast to far-field tsunami amplitudes that are fairly well predicted by the seismic moment of subduction zone earthquakes, there exists significant variation in the scaling of local tsunami amplitude with respect to seismic moment. From a global catalog of tsunami runup observations this variability is greatest for the most frequently occuring tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquakes in the magnitude range of 7 < Mw < 8.5. Variability in local tsunami runup scaling can be ascribed to tsunami source parameters that are independent of seismic moment: variations in the water depth in the source region, the combination of higher slip and lower shear modulus at shallow depth, and rupture complexity in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution patterns. The focus of this study is on the effect that rupture complexity has on the local tsunami wave field. A wide range of slip distribution patterns are generated using a stochastic, self-affine source model that is consistent with the falloff of far-field seismic displacement spectra at high frequencies. The synthetic slip distributions generated by the stochastic source model are discretized and the vertical displacement fields from point source elastic dislocation expressions are superimposed to compute the coseismic vertical displacement field. For shallow subduction zone earthquakes it is demonstrated that self-affine irregularities of the slip distribution result in significant variations in local tsunami amplitude. The effects of rupture complexity are less pronounced for earthquakes at greater depth or along faults with steep dip angles. For a test region along the Pacific coast of central Mexico, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude is calculated for a large number (N = 100) of synthetic slip distribution patterns, all with identical seismic moment (Mw = 8.1). Analysis of the results indicates that for earthquakes of a fixed location, geometry, and seismic moment, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude can vary by a factor of 3 or more. These results indicate that there is substantially more variation in the local tsunami wave field derived from the inherent complexity subduction zone earthquakes than predicted by a simple elastic dislocation model. Probabilistic methods that take into account variability in earthquake rupture processes are likely to yield more accurate assessments of tsunami hazards.

Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, C.; Meng, L.

2015-12-01

Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800 instruments) and the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array (~400 instruments), are established.

Surface and Subsurface Fault Displacements from the September 2010 Darfield (Canterbury) Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, B.; Furlong, K. P.; Hayes, G. P.; Herman, M. W.; Quigley, M.

2012-12-01

On September 3, 2010 a Magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck near Darfield, New Zealand. This was to be the first earthquake in an ongoing, damaging sequence near the city of Christchurch. The earthquake produced a surface rupture with measurable offsets of up to 5.3m along a 30km surface fault system. The spatial pattern of slip during this rupture has been determined by various groups using a range of approaches and several independent data sets. Surface fault rupture was measured in the field and fault slip at depth has been inferred from a seismologic finite fault model (FFM) and various geodetic observations including GPS and InSAR. Here we compare the observed segmented surface displacements with fault slip inferred from the other data. Measurements of the surface rupture show segmented faulting consistent with subsurface slip in the FFM. In the FFM, the main slip patch near the hypocenter can be directly correlated to the region of maximum surface displacement. The FFM and some evidence in the InSAR data also indicate that the Greendale fault system, the structure responsible for the bulk of the rupture, continues at depth closer towards Christchurch than is seen in surface rupture patterns. There is an additional 20km long patch with up to 3m of modeled slip seen in the eastern end of the inverted fault, offset to the south from the Greendale fault trace. This additional fault segment is consistent with a zone of aftershock activity of the main Darfield event, and with local patterns of strong motion. It thus appears that slip recorded at the surface does not describe the entire fault system. This eastward extension of the September rupture means that there is only a short segment of unruptured crust remaining along the entire fault system involved in the Canterbury earthquake sequence.

Rupture Propagation of the 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan, Earthquake Affected by Poroelastic Stress Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, J.; Wang, W.; Xiao, J.

2015-12-01

The 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan, earthquake occurred on the curved Hoshab fault. This fault connects with the north-south trending Chaman strike-slip fault to northeast, and with the west-east trending Makran thrust fault system to southwest. Teleseismic waveform inversion, incorporated with coseismic ground surface deformation data, show that the rupture of this earthquake nucleated around northeast segment of the fault, and then propagated southwestward along the northwest dipping Hoshab fault about 200 km, with the maximum coseismic displacement, featured mainly by purely left-lateral strike-slip motion, about 10 meters. In context of the India-Asia collision frame, associating with the fault geometry around this region, the rupture propagation of this earthquake seems to not follow an optimal path along the fault segment, because after nucleation of this event the Hoshab fault on the southwest of hypocenter of this earthquake is clamped by elastic stress change. Here, we build a three-dimensional finite-element model to explore the evolution of both stress and pore-pressure during the rupturing process of this earthquake. In the model, the crustal deformation is treated as undrained poroelastic media as described by Biot's theory, and the instantaneous rupture process is specified with split-node technique. By testing a reasonable range of parameters, including the coefficient of friction, the undrained Poisson's ratio, the permeability of the fault zone and the bulk crust, numerical results have shown that after the nucleation of rupture of this earthquake around the northeast of the Hoshab fault, the positive change of normal stress (clamping the fault) on the fault plane is greatly reduced by the instantaneous increase of pore pressure (unclamping the fault). This process could result in the change of Coulomb failure stress resolved on the Hoshab fault to be hastened, explaining the possible mechanism for southwestward propagation of rupture of the Mw7.7 Balochistan earthquake along the Hoshab fault.

Toxic industrial chemical (TIC) source emissions modeling for pressurized liquefied gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Britter, Rex; Weil, Jeffrey; Leung, Joseph; Hanna, Steven

2011-01-01

The objective of this article is to report current toxic industrial chemical (TIC) source emissions formulas appropriate for use in atmospheric comprehensive risk assessment models so as to represent state-of-the-art knowledge. The focus is on high-priority scenarios, including two-phase releases of pressurized liquefied gases such as chlorine from rail cars. The total mass released and the release duration are major parameters, as well as the velocity, thermodynamic state, and amount and droplet sizes of imbedded aerosols of the material at the exit of the rupture, which are required as inputs to the subsequent jet and dispersion modeling. Because of the many possible release scenarios that could develop, a suite of model equations has been described. These allow for gas, two-phase or liquid storage and release through ruptures of various types including sharp-edged and "pipe-like" ruptures. Model equations for jet depressurization and phase change due to flashing are available. Consideration of the importance of vessel response to a rupture is introduced. The breakup of the jet into fine droplets and their subsequent suspension and evaporation, or rainout is still a significant uncertainty in the overall modeling process. The recommended models are evaluated with data from various TIC field experiments, in particular recent experiments with pressurized liquefied gases. It is found that there is typically a factor of two error in models compared with research-grade observations of mass flow rates. However, biases are present in models' estimates of the droplet size distributions resulting from flashing releases.

Earthquake Rupture Dynamics using Adaptive Mesh Refinement and High-Order Accurate Numerical Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozdon, J. E.; Wilcox, L.

2013-12-01

Our goal is to develop scalable and adaptive (spatial and temporal) numerical methods for coupled, multiphysics problems using high-order accurate numerical methods. To do so, we are developing an opensource, parallel library known as bfam (available at http://bfam.in). The first application to be developed on top of bfam is an earthquake rupture dynamics solver using high-order discontinuous Galerkin methods and summation-by-parts finite difference methods. In earthquake rupture dynamics, wave propagation in the Earth's crust is coupled to frictional sliding on fault interfaces. This coupling is two-way, required the simultaneous simulation of both processes. The use of laboratory-measured friction parameters requires near-fault resolution that is 4-5 orders of magnitude higher than that needed to resolve the frequencies of interest in the volume. This, along with earlier simulations using a low-order, finite volume based adaptive mesh refinement framework, suggest that adaptive mesh refinement is ideally suited for this problem. The use of high-order methods is motivated by the high level of resolution required off the fault in earlier the low-order finite volume simulations; we believe this need for resolution is a result of the excessive numerical dissipation of low-order methods. In bfam spatial adaptivity is handled using the p4est library and temporal adaptivity will be accomplished through local time stepping. In this presentation we will present the guiding principles behind the library as well as verification of code against the Southern California Earthquake Center dynamic rupture code validation test problems.

The effect of heterogeneous crust on the earthquake -- The case study of the 2004 Chuetsu, Japan, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyatake, T.; Kato, N.; Yin, J.; Kato, A.

2010-12-01

The 2004, Chuetsu, Japan, earthquake of Mw 6.6 occurred as shallow thrust event and the detailed kinematic source model was obtained by Hikima and Koketsu (2005). Just after the event, a dense temporal seismic network was deployed, and the detailed structure was elucidated (A. Kato et al. 2006). The seismic velocities in the hanging wall above the main shock fault are lower than those in the footwall, with the velocity contrast extending to a depth of approximately 10 km (A. Kato et al. 2006). Their results also show the high velocity on the asperity. We investigate that effect of the structure heterogeneity on fault rupture. First, we model the structure of the source region of 100km x 100km x 40km as simple as possible, and then solve the static elastic equation of motion with gravity effect by using finite difference method and GeoFEM. Our structure model consists of two layers, in which the boundary is a dipping surface from ground surface to 10km depth and bend to horizontal plane. The slope of the boundary corresponds to the earthquake fault and a bump located on the asperity between the depths of 4km and 10km. Finite difference grid size is 0.25km horizontally and 0.4km vertically. Ratio of the horizontal to vertical grids corresponds to the dip angle of the main shock. We simply assume the rigidity of 30GPa for lower sediment part and 40GPa for hard rock part. The boundary conditions imposed are, 1) stress free on the ground surface, 2) depth dependent or uniform normal stress are added on the sides that cause horizontal maximum stress, 3) Lithostatic vertical stress on the bottom. The calculated stress field on the main shock fault has the following features, 1) The high shear stress peaks appear around the depth of hypocenter and the top edge of the asperity, corresponding to the depths of the velocity contrast. These high stress zones are caused by stress concentration of the low rigidity wedge shaped sediment. 2) Expected stress drop distribution is around the top edge of the asperity. 3) Strength excess increases with depth. Combining with 2), the rupture expect to propagate toward shallower asperity than deeper part. 4) Uniform normal stress boundary condition seems to be unreasonable because of high stress drop in shallower part. These are important clues to investigate the physical process of the earthquake.

The 2016 central Italy earthquake sequence: surface effects, fault model and triggering scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatzipetros, Alexandros; Pavlides, Spyros; Papathanassiou, George; Sboras, Sotiris; Valkaniotis, Sotiris; Georgiadis, George

2017-04-01

The results of fieldwork performed during the 2016 earthquake sequence around the karstic basins of Norcia and La Piana di Castelluccio, at an altitude of 1400 m, on the Monte Vettore (altitude 2476 m) and Vettoretto, as well as the three mapped seismogenic faults, striking NNW-SSW, are presented in this paper. Surface co-seismic ruptures were observed in the Vettore and Vettoretto segment of the fault for several kilometres ( 7 km) in the August earthquakes at high altitudes, and were re-activated and expanded northwards during the October earthquakes. Coseismic ruptures and the neotectonic Mt. Vettore fault zone were modelled in detail using images acquired from specifically planned UAV (drone) flights. Ruptures, typically with displacement of up to 20 cm, were observed after the August event both in the scree and weathered mantle (elluvium), as well as the bedrock, consisting mainly of fragmented carbonate rocks with small tectonic surfaces. These fractures expanded and new ones formed during the October events, typically of displacements of up to 50 cm, although locally higher displacements of up to almost 2 m were observed. Hundreds of rock falls and landslides were mapped through satellite imagery, using pre- and post- earthquake Sentinel 2A images. Several of them were also verified in the field. Based on field mapping results and seismological information, the causative faults were modelled. The model consists of five seismogenic sources, each one associated with a strong event in the sequence. The visualisation of the seismogenic sources follows INGV's DISS standards for the Individual Seismogenic Sources (ISS) layer, while strike, dip and rake of the seismic sources are obtained from selected focal mechanisms. Based on this model, the ground deformation pattern was inferred, using Okada's dislocation solution formulae, which shows that the maximum calculated vertical displacement is 0.53 m. This is in good agreement with the statistical analysis of the observed surface rupture displacement. Stress transfer analysis was also performed in the five modelled seismogenic sources, using seismologically defined parameters. The resulting stress transfer pattern, based on the sequence of events, shows that the causative fault of each event was influenced by loading from the previous ones.

Resolution Analysis of finite fault inversions: A back-projection approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, C.; Shao, G.

2007-12-01

The resolution of inverted source models of large earthquakes is controlled by frequency contents of "coherent" (or "useful") seismic observations and their spatial distribution. But it is difficult to distinguish whether some features consistent during different inversions are really required by data or a consequence of "prior" information, such as velocity structures, fault geometry, model parameterizations. Here, we investigate the model spatial resolution by first back projecting and stacking the data at the source regions and then analyzing the spatial- temporal variations of the focusing regions, which arbitrarily defined as the regions with 90% of the peak focusing amplitude. Our preliminary results indicated 1) The spatial-temporal resolution at a particularly direction is controlled by the region of directivity parameter [pcos(θ)] within the seismic network, where p is the horizontal slowness from the hypocenter and θ is the difference between the station azimuth and this orientation. Therefore, the network aperture is more important than the number of stations. 2) Simple stacking method is a robust method to capture the asperities but the sizes of focusing regions are usually much larger than what data could resolve. By carefully weighting the data before the stacking could enhance the spatial resolution in a particular direction. 3) The results based on the teleseismic P waves of a local network usually surfers the trade-off between the source's spatial location and its rupture time. The resolution of the 2001 Kunlunshan earthquake and 2006 Kuril island earthquake will be investigated.

Modeling Soft Tissue Damage and Failure Using a Combined Particle/Continuum Approach.

PubMed

Rausch, M K; Karniadakis, G E; Humphrey, J D

2017-02-01

Biological soft tissues experience damage and failure as a result of injury, disease, or simply age; examples include torn ligaments and arterial dissections. Given the complexity of tissue geometry and material behavior, computational models are often essential for studying both damage and failure. Yet, because of the need to account for discontinuous phenomena such as crazing, tearing, and rupturing, continuum methods are limited. Therefore, we model soft tissue damage and failure using a particle/continuum approach. Specifically, we combine continuum damage theory with Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH). Because SPH is a meshless particle method, and particle connectivity is determined solely through a neighbor list, discontinuities can be readily modeled by modifying this list. We show, for the first time, that an anisotropic hyperelastic constitutive model commonly employed for modeling soft tissue can be conveniently implemented within a SPH framework and that SPH results show excellent agreement with analytical solutions for uniaxial and biaxial extension as well as finite element solutions for clamped uniaxial extension in 2D and 3D. We further develop a simple algorithm that automatically detects damaged particles and disconnects the spatial domain along rupture lines in 2D and rupture surfaces in 3D. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by simulating damage and failure under clamped uniaxial extension and in a peeling experiment of virtual soft tissue samples. In conclusion, SPH in combination with continuum damage theory may provide an accurate and efficient framework for modeling damage and failure in soft tissues.

Modeling Soft Tissue Damage and Failure Using a Combined Particle/Continuum Approach

PubMed Central

Rausch, M. K.; Karniadakis, G. E.; Humphrey, J. D.

2016-01-01

Biological soft tissues experience damage and failure as a result of injury, disease, or simply age; examples include torn ligaments and arterial dissections. Given the complexity of tissue geometry and material behavior, computational models are often essential for studying both damage and failure. Yet, because of the need to account for discontinuous phenomena such as crazing, tearing, and rupturing, continuum methods are limited. Therefore, we model soft tissue damage and failure using a particle/continuum approach. Specifically, we combine continuum damage theory with Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH). Because SPH is a meshless particle method, and particle connectivity is determined solely through a neighbor list, discontinuities can be readily modeled by modifying this list. We show, for the first time, that an anisotropic hyperelastic constitutive model commonly employed for modeling soft tissue can be conveniently implemented within a SPH framework and that SPH results show excellent agreement with analytical solutions for uniaxial and biaxial extension as well as finite element solutions for clamped uniaxial extension in 2D and 3D. We further develop a simple algorithm that automatically detects damaged particles and disconnects the spatial domain along rupture lines in 2D and rupture surfaces in 3D. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by simulating damage and failure under clamped uniaxial extension and in a peeling experiment of virtual soft tissue samples. In conclusion, SPH in combination with continuum damage theory may provide an accurate and efficient framework for modeling damage and failure in soft tissues. PMID:27538848

Rupture process of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Ecuador earthquake from joint inversion of InSAR data and teleseismic P waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Lei; Xu, Caijun; Wen, Yangmao; Zhang, Xu; Jiang, Guoyan

2018-01-01

The 2016 Ecuador earthquake ruptured the Ecuador-Colombia subduction interface where several historic megathrust earthquakes had occurred. In order to determine a detailed rupture model, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images and teleseismic data sets were objectively weighted by using a modified Akaika's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) method to jointly invert for the rupture process of the earthquake. In modeling the rupture process, a constrained waveform length method, unlike the traditional subjective selected waveform length method, was used since the lengths of inverted waveforms were strictly constrained by the rupture velocity and rise time (the slip duration time). The optimal rupture velocity and rise time of the earthquake were estimated from grid search, which were determined to be 2.0 km/s and 20 s, respectively. The inverted model shows that the event is dominated by thrust movement and the released moment is 5.75 × 1020 Nm (Mw 7.77). The slip distribution extends southward along the Ecuador coast line in an elongated stripe at a depth between 10 and 25 km. The slip model is composed of two asperities and slipped over 4 m. The source time function is approximate 80 s that separated into two segments corresponding to the two asperities. The small magnitude of the slip occurred in the updip section of the fault plane resulted in small tsunami waves that were verified by observations near the coast. We suggest a possible situation that the rupture zone of the 2016 earthquake is likely not overlapped with that of the 1942 earthquake.

A method for simulating the release of natural gas from the rupture of high-pressure pipelines in any terrain.

PubMed

Deng, Yajun; Hu, Hongbing; Yu, Bo; Sun, Dongliang; Hou, Lei; Liang, Yongtu

2018-01-15

The rupture of a high-pressure natural gas pipeline can pose a serious threat to human life and environment. In this research, a method has been proposed to simulate the release of natural gas from the rupture of high-pressure pipelines in any terrain. The process of gas releases from the rupture of a high-pressure pipeline is divided into three stages, namely the discharge, jet, and dispersion stages. Firstly, a discharge model is established to calculate the release rate of the orifice. Secondly, an improved jet model is proposed to obtain the parameters of the pseudo source. Thirdly, a fast-modeling method applicable to any terrain is introduced. Finally, based upon these three steps, a dispersion model, which can take any terrain into account, is established. Then, the dispersion scenarios of released gas in four different terrains are studied. Moreover, the effects of pipeline pressure, pipeline diameter, wind speed and concentration of hydrogen sulfide on the dispersion scenario in real terrain are systematically analyzed. The results provide significant guidance for risk assessment and contingency planning of a ruptured natural gas pipeline. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Developing framework to constrain the geometry of the seismic rupture plane on subduction interfaces a priori - A probabilistic approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, G.P.; Wald, D.J.

2009-01-01

A key step in many earthquake source inversions requires knowledge of the geometry of the fault surface on which the earthquake occurred. Our knowledge of this surface is often uncertain, however, and as a result fault geometry misinterpretation can map into significant error in the final temporal and spatial slip patterns of these inversions. Relying solely on an initial hypocentre and CMT mechanism can be problematic when establishing rupture characteristics needed for rapid tsunami and ground shaking estimates. Here, we attempt to improve the quality of fast finite-fault inversion results by combining several independent and complementary data sets to more accurately constrain the geometry of the seismic rupture plane of subducting slabs. Unlike previous analyses aimed at defining the general form of the plate interface, we require mechanisms and locations of the seismicity considered in our inversions to be consistent with their occurrence on the plate interface, by limiting events to those with well-constrained depths and with CMT solutions indicative of shallow-dip thrust faulting. We construct probability density functions about each location based on formal assumptions of their depth uncertainty and use these constraints to solve for the ‘most-likely’ fault plane. Examples are shown for the trench in the source region of the Mw 8.6 Southern Sumatra earthquake of March 2005, and for the Northern Chile Trench in the source region of the November 2007 Antofagasta earthquake. We also show examples using only the historic catalogues in regions without recent great earthquakes, such as the Japan and Kamchatka Trenches. In most cases, this method produces a fault plane that is more consistent with all of the data available than is the plane implied by the initial hypocentre and CMT mechanism. Using the aggregated data sets, we have developed an algorithm to rapidly determine more accurate initial fault plane geometries for source inversions of future earthquakes.

Navigating Earthquake Physics with High-Resolution Array Back-Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Lingsen

Understanding earthquake source dynamics is a fundamental goal of geophysics. Progress toward this goal has been slow due to the gap between state-of-art earthquake simulations and the limited source imaging techniques based on conventional low-frequency finite fault inversions. Seismic array processing is an alternative source imaging technique that employs the higher frequency content of the earthquakes and provides finer detail of the source process with few prior assumptions. While the back-projection provides key observations of previous large earthquakes, the standard beamforming back-projection suffers from low resolution and severe artifacts. This thesis introduces the MUSIC technique, a high-resolution array processing method that aims to narrow the gap between the seismic observations and earthquake simulations. The MUSIC is a high-resolution method taking advantage of the higher order signal statistics. The method has not been widely used in seismology yet because of the nonstationary and incoherent nature of the seismic signal. We adapt MUSIC to transient seismic signal by incorporating the Multitaper cross-spectrum estimates. We also adopt a "reference window" strategy that mitigates the "swimming artifact," a systematic drift effect in back projection. The improved MUSIC back projections allow the imaging of recent large earthquakes in finer details which give rise to new perspectives on dynamic simulations. In the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, we observe frequency-dependent rupture behaviors which relate to the material variation along the dip of the subduction interface. In the 2012 off-Sumatra earthquake, we image the complicated ruptures involving orthogonal fault system and an usual branching direction. This result along with our complementary dynamic simulations probes the pressure-insensitive strength of the deep oceanic lithosphere. In another example, back projection is applied to the 2010 M7 Haiti earthquake recorded at regional distance. The high-frequency subevents are located at the edges of geodetic slip regions, which are correlated to the stopping phases associated with rupture speed reduction when the earthquake arrests.

Supershear rupture in the 24 May 2013 Mw 6.7 Okhotsk deep earthquake: Additional evidence from regional seismic stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Zhongwen; Shearer, Peter M.; Kanamori, Hiroo

2015-10-01

Zhan et al. (2014a) reported supershear rupture during the Mw 6.7 aftershock of the 2013 Mw 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk deep earthquake, relying heavily on the regional station PET, which played a critical role in constraining the vertical rupture dimension and rupture speed. Here we include five more regional stations and find that the durations of the source time functions derived from these stations are consistent with Zhan et al.'s supershear rupture model. Furthermore, to reduce the nonuniqueness of deconvolution and combine the bandwidths of different stations, we conduct a joint inversion of the six regional stations for a single broadband moment-rate function (MRF). The best fitting MRF, which explains all the regional waveforms well, has a smooth shape without any temporal gaps. The Mw 6.7 Okhotsk deep earthquake is more likely a continuous supershear rupture than a dynamically triggered doublet.

Rupture process of the 2009 L'Aquila, central Italy, earthquake, from the separate and joint inversion of Strong Motion, GPS and DInSAR data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cirella, A.; Piatanesi, A.; Tinti, E.; Chini, M.; Cocco, M.

2012-04-01

In this study, we investigate the rupture history of the April 6th 2009 (Mw 6.1) L'Aquila normal faulting earthquake by using a nonlinear inversion of strong motion, GPS and DInSAR data. We use a two-stage non-linear inversion technique. During the first stage, an algorithm based on the heat-bath simulated annealing generates an ensemble of models that efficiently sample the good data-fitting regions of parameter space. In the second stage the algorithm performs a statistical analysis of the ensemble providing us the best-fitting model, the average model, the associated standard deviation and coefficient of variation. This technique, rather than simply looking at the best model, extracts the most stable features of the earthquake rupture that are consistent with the data and gives an estimate of the variability of each model parameter. The application to the 2009 L'Aquila main-shock shows that both the separate and joint inversion solutions reveal a complex rupture process and a heterogeneous slip distribution. Slip is concentrated in two main asperities: a smaller shallow patch of slip located up-dip from the hypocenter and a second deeper and larger asperity located southeastward along strike direction. The key feature of the source process emerging from our inverted models concerns the rupture history, which is characterized by two distinct stages. The first stage begins with rupture initiation and with a modest moment release lasting nearly 0.9 seconds, which is followed by a sharp increase in slip velocity and rupture speed located 2 km up-dip from the nucleation. During this first stage the rupture front propagated up-dip from the hypocenter at relatively high (˜ 4.0 km/s), but still sub-shear, rupture velocity. The second stage starts nearly 2 seconds after nucleation and it is characterized by the along strike rupture propagation. The largest and deeper asperity fails during this stage of the rupture process. The rupture velocity is larger in the up-dip than in the along-strike direction. The up-dip and along-strike rupture propagation are separated in time and associated with a Mode II and a Mode III crack, respectively. Our results show that the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake featured a very complex rupture, with strong spatial and temporal heterogeneities suggesting a strong frictional and/or structural control of the rupture process.

Off-fault plasticity in three-dimensional dynamic rupture simulations using a modal Discontinuous Galerkin method on unstructured meshes: Implementation, verification, and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wollherr, Stephanie; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Uphoff, Carsten

2018-05-01

The dynamics and potential size of earthquakes depend crucially on rupture transfers between adjacent fault segments. To accurately describe earthquake source dynamics, numerical models can account for realistic fault geometries and rheologies such as nonlinear inelastic processes off the slip interface. We present implementation, verification, and application of off-fault Drucker-Prager plasticity in the open source software SeisSol (www.seissol.org). SeisSol is based on an arbitrary high-order derivative modal Discontinuous Galerkin (ADER-DG) method using unstructured, tetrahedral meshes specifically suited for complex geometries. Two implementation approaches are detailed, modelling plastic failure either employing sub-elemental quadrature points or switching to nodal basis coefficients. At fine fault discretizations the nodal basis approach is up to 6 times more efficient in terms of computational costs while yielding comparable accuracy. Both methods are verified in community benchmark problems and by three dimensional numerical h- and p-refinement studies with heterogeneous initial stresses. We observe no spectral convergence for on-fault quantities with respect to a given reference solution, but rather discuss a limitation to low-order convergence for heterogeneous 3D dynamic rupture problems. For simulations including plasticity, a high fault resolution may be less crucial than commonly assumed, due to the regularization of peak slip rate and an increase of the minimum cohesive zone width. In large-scale dynamic rupture simulations based on the 1992 Landers earthquake, we observe high rupture complexity including reverse slip, direct branching, and dynamic triggering. The spatio-temporal distribution of rupture transfers are altered distinctively by plastic energy absorption, correlated with locations of geometrical fault complexity. Computational cost increases by 7% when accounting for off-fault plasticity in the demonstrating application. Our results imply that the combination of fully 3D dynamic modelling, complex fault geometries, and off-fault plastic yielding is important to realistically capture dynamic rupture transfers in natural fault systems.

The Mw6.5 earthquake of 17 November 2015 in Lefkada Island and the seismotectonics in the Cephalonia Transform Fault (Ionian Sea, Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Agalos, Apostolos; Bocchini, Gian Maria; Chousianitis, Konstantinos; Karastathis, Vassilis; Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Kontoes, Charis; Papoutsis, Ioannis; Svigkas, Nikos; Koukouvelas, Ioannis; Zygouri, Vasiliki; Tselentis, Akis

2016-04-01

On 17 November 2015 a Mw6.5 earthquake ruptured offshore Lefkada Isl. in Ionian Sea, Greece, causing two victims, damage and ground failures particularly in the SW part of the island, which is consistent with the ground deformation pattern shown by InSAR analysis. Fault plane solutions released by CMT, NOA and other institutes are consistent indicating strike-slip right-lateral faulting, which is typical for the area, e.g. 2003 earthquake in the same fault zone. The analysis of 30-s daily observations of the permanent GPS stations operated by NOA showed displacement vectors with a motion pattern which is in agreement with the right-lateral kinematics of the rupture. The seismic plane was striking/dipping about N24E/W75.The seismic sequence for the period from 17 Nov. to 8 Dec. 2015 was relocated, with and without the use of time residuals, applying the NNLoc algorithm on a slightly modified 9-layer seismic velocity model (Haslinger et al., 1999) and by using only phases at stations closer than 120 km from the mainshock in order to avoid the use of Pn phases. The relocation procedure obtained without the use of residuals was repeated with the HypoDD algorithm. All relocations showed that the aftershock cloud follows the fault plane strike and consists of one north and one south clusters distributed in the seismogenic layer of 4-12 km. The south cluster started to develop a few hours after the mainshock, while it presents different statistical properties as compared to the north one. These results indicate that the south cluster was likely the result of triggering effect. Digital broadband P-wave teleseismic records, selected from GDSN stations to achieve the best possible azimuthal coverage, were used to invert for the mainshock rupture history. The teleseismic waveforms were corrected for instrument response, integrated to displacement, band-pass filtered from 0.01 to 1 Hz using a Butterworth filter and finally re-sampled to 0.2 samples/s. The finite fault inversion method, which is capable of estimating the distributions of both the spatial slip and rise time on the ruptured fault, was applied using the Harvard CMT focal mechanism solution. The above velocity model was used to create the subfault synthetics. It was found that the earthquake had a not very complex source time function with nearly 78 cm maximum slip with source duration of ~13 s. Most of the slip is concentrated on a 14 km x 7 km fault rupture. The rupture propagated from the mainshock focal depth of 12 km upwards and southwards. Taking into account together the Cephalonia Jan.-Febr. 2014 seismic sequence and the Lefkada 2015 sequence, the overall seismotectonic picture is that the northern (Lefkada) branch of the Cephalonia Transform Fault (CTF) continues towards SW intersecting western Cephalonia. Also, it is likely that the 2015 earthquake fits the characteristic earthquake model suggested for the area after the 2003 Lefkada earthquake by considering also the historical seismicity of the area. This research is a contribution to the EU-FP7 ITN research project ZIP (Zooming In between Plates, grant agreement no: 604713, 2013.

Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, an severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.

1997-02-01

Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation was confirmed by further tests at high temperatures, as well as by finite-element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation was confirmedmore » by finite-element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate-sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure was developed and validated by tests under various temperature and pressure loadings that can occur during postulated severe accidents.« less

3D Modeling of Strong Ground Motion in the Pacific Northwest From Large Earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, K. B.; Geisselmeyer, A.; Stephenson, W. J.; Mai, P. M.

2007-12-01

The Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest, USA, generates Great (megathrust) earthquakes with a recurrence period of about 500 years, most recently the M~9 event on January 26, 1700. Since no earthquake of such magnitude has occurred in the Pacific Northwest since the deployment of strong ground motion instruments, a large uncertainty is associated with the ground motions expected from such event. To decrease this uncertainty, we have carried out the first 3D simulations of megathrust earthquakes (Mw8.5 and Mw9.0) rupturing along the Cascadia subduction zone. The simulations were carried out in a recently developed 3D velocity model of the region of dimensions 1050 km by 550 km, discretized into 2 billion 250 m3 cubes with a minimum S-wave velocity of 625 m/s. The model includes the subduction slab, accretionary sediments, local sedimentary basins, and the ocean layer. About 6 minutes of wave propagation for each scenario consumed about 24 Wall-clock hours using a parallel fourth-order finite-difference method with 1600 processors on the San Diego Supercomputer Center Datastar supercomputer. The source descriptions for the Mw9.0 scenarios were designed by mapping the inversion results for the December 26, 2004 M9+ Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake (Ji, 2006) onto a 950 km by 150 km large rupture for the Pacific Northwest model. Simulations were carried out for hypocenters located toward the northern and southern ends of the subduction zone. In addition, we simulated two M8.5 events with a source area of 275 km by 150 km located in the northern and central parts of the model area. The sources for the M8.5 events were generated using the pseudo-dynamic model by Guatteri et al. (2004). All sources used spatially-variable slip, rise time and rupture velocity. Three major metropolitan areas are located in the model region, namely Seattle (3 million+ people), Vancouver (2 million+ people), and Portland (2 million+ people), all located above sedimentary basins amplifying the waves incident from the subduction zone. The estimated peak ground velocities (PGVs) for frequencies less than 0.5 Hz vary significantly with the assumed rise time. Using a mean rise of 32 s, as estimated from source inversion of the 2004 M9+ Sumatra-Andeman event (Ji, 2006), PGVs reached 40 cm/s in Seattle and 10 cm/s in Vancouver and Portland. However, if the mean rise time is decreased to about 14 s, as suggested by the empirical regression by Somerville et al. (1999), PGVs are increased by 2-3 times at these locations. For the Mw8.5 events, PGVs would reach about 10 cm/s in Seattle, and about 5 cm/s in Vancouver and Portland. Combined with extended duration of the shaking exceeding 1 minute for the Mw8.5 events and 2 minutes for the Mw9 events, these long-period ground motions may inflict significant damage on the built environment, in particular on the highrises in downtown Seattle. However, the strongest shaking arrives 1-2 minutes after the earthquake nucleates, indicating that an early warning system in place may help mitigate loss of life in case of a megathrust earthquake in the Pacific Northwest. Additional efforts should analyse the simulated displacements on the ocean bottom for tsunami generation potential.

Source Mechanism of May 30, 2015 Bonin Islands, Japan Deep Earthquake (Mw7.8) Estimated by Broadband Waveform Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuboi, S.; Nakamura, T.; Miyoshi, T.

2015-12-01

May 30, 2015 Bonin Islands, Japan earthquake (Mw 7.8, depth 679.9km GCMT) was one of the deepest earthquakes ever recorded. We apply the waveform inversion technique (Kikuchi & Kanamori, 1991) to obtain slip distribution in the source fault of this earthquake in the same manner as our previous work (Nakamura et al., 2010). We use 60 broadband seismograms of IRIS GSN seismic stations with epicentral distance between 30 and 90 degrees. The broadband original data are integrated into ground displacement and band-pass filtered in the frequency band 0.002-1 Hz. We use the velocity structure model IASP91 to calculate the wavefield near source and stations. We assume that the fault is squared with the length 50 km. We obtain source rupture model for both nodal planes with high dip angle (74 degree) and low dip angle (26 degree) and compare the synthetic seismograms with the observations to determine which source rupture model would explain the observations better. We calculate broadband synthetic seismograms with these source propagation models using the spectral-element method (Komatitsch & Tromp, 2001). We use new Earth Simulator system in JAMSTEC to compute synthetic seismograms using the spectral-element method. The simulations are performed on 7,776 processors, which require 1,944 nodes of the Earth Simulator. On this number of nodes, a simulation of 50 minutes of wave propagation accurate at periods of 3.8 seconds and longer requires about 5 hours of CPU time. Comparisons of the synthetic waveforms with the observation at teleseismic stations show that the arrival time of pP wave calculated for depth 679km matches well with the observation, which demonstrates that the earthquake really happened below the 660 km discontinuity. In our present forward simulations, the source rupture model with the low-angle fault dipping is likely to better explain the observations.

Dynamic earthquake rupture simulations on nonplanar faults embedded in 3D geometrically complex, heterogeneous elastic solids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duru, Kenneth, E-mail: kduru@stanford.edu; Dunham, Eric M.; Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA

Dynamic propagation of shear ruptures on a frictional interface in an elastic solid is a useful idealization of natural earthquakes. The conditions relating discontinuities in particle velocities across fault zones and tractions acting on the fault are often expressed as nonlinear friction laws. The corresponding initial boundary value problems are both numerically and computationally challenging. In addition, seismic waves generated by earthquake ruptures must be propagated for many wavelengths away from the fault. Therefore, reliable and efficient numerical simulations require both provably stable and high order accurate numerical methods. We present a high order accurate finite difference method for: a)more » enforcing nonlinear friction laws, in a consistent and provably stable manner, suitable for efficient explicit time integration; b) dynamic propagation of earthquake ruptures along nonplanar faults; and c) accurate propagation of seismic waves in heterogeneous media with free surface topography. We solve the first order form of the 3D elastic wave equation on a boundary-conforming curvilinear mesh, in terms of particle velocities and stresses that are collocated in space and time, using summation-by-parts (SBP) finite difference operators in space. Boundary and interface conditions are imposed weakly using penalties. By deriving semi-discrete energy estimates analogous to the continuous energy estimates we prove numerical stability. The finite difference stencils used in this paper are sixth order accurate in the interior and third order accurate close to the boundaries. However, the method is applicable to any spatial operator with a diagonal norm satisfying the SBP property. Time stepping is performed with a 4th order accurate explicit low storage Runge–Kutta scheme, thus yielding a globally fourth order accurate method in both space and time. We show numerical simulations on band limited self-similar fractal faults revealing the complexity of rupture dynamics on rough faults.« less

Dynamic earthquake rupture simulations on nonplanar faults embedded in 3D geometrically complex, heterogeneous elastic solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duru, Kenneth; Dunham, Eric M.

2016-01-01

Dynamic propagation of shear ruptures on a frictional interface in an elastic solid is a useful idealization of natural earthquakes. The conditions relating discontinuities in particle velocities across fault zones and tractions acting on the fault are often expressed as nonlinear friction laws. The corresponding initial boundary value problems are both numerically and computationally challenging. In addition, seismic waves generated by earthquake ruptures must be propagated for many wavelengths away from the fault. Therefore, reliable and efficient numerical simulations require both provably stable and high order accurate numerical methods. We present a high order accurate finite difference method for: a) enforcing nonlinear friction laws, in a consistent and provably stable manner, suitable for efficient explicit time integration; b) dynamic propagation of earthquake ruptures along nonplanar faults; and c) accurate propagation of seismic waves in heterogeneous media with free surface topography. We solve the first order form of the 3D elastic wave equation on a boundary-conforming curvilinear mesh, in terms of particle velocities and stresses that are collocated in space and time, using summation-by-parts (SBP) finite difference operators in space. Boundary and interface conditions are imposed weakly using penalties. By deriving semi-discrete energy estimates analogous to the continuous energy estimates we prove numerical stability. The finite difference stencils used in this paper are sixth order accurate in the interior and third order accurate close to the boundaries. However, the method is applicable to any spatial operator with a diagonal norm satisfying the SBP property. Time stepping is performed with a 4th order accurate explicit low storage Runge-Kutta scheme, thus yielding a globally fourth order accurate method in both space and time. We show numerical simulations on band limited self-similar fractal faults revealing the complexity of rupture dynamics on rough faults.

Seismic shaking in the North China Basin expected from ruptures of a possible seismic gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Benchun; Liu, Dunyu; Yin, An

2017-05-01

A 160 km long seismic gap, which has not been ruptured over 8000 years, was identified recently in North China. In this study, we use a dynamic source model and a newly available high-resolution 3-D velocity structure to simulate long-period ground motion (up to 0.5 Hz) from possibly worst case rupture scenarios of the seismic gap. We find that the characteristics of the earthquake source and the local geologic structure play a critical role in controlling the amplitude and distribution of the simulated strong ground shaking. Rupture directivity and slip asperities can result in large-amplitude (i.e., >1 m/s) ground shaking near the fault, whereas long-duration shaking may occur within sedimentary basins. In particular, a deep and closed Quaternary basin between Beijing and Tianjin can lead to ground shaking of several tens of cm/s for more than 1 min. These results may provide a sound basis for seismic mitigation in one of the most populated regions in the world.

Complementary Ruptures of Surface Ruptures and Deep Asperity during the 2014 Northern Nagano, Japan, Earthquake (MW 6.3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Kubo, H.

2015-12-01

A thrust earthquake of MW 6.3 occurred along the northern part of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line (ISTL) in the northern Nagano prefecture, central Japan, on November 22, 2014. This event was reported to be related to an active fault, the Kamishiro fault belonging to the ISTL (e.g., HERP, 2014). The surface rupture is observed along the Kamishiro fault (e.g., Lin et al., 2015; Okada et al., 2015). We estimated the kinematic source rupture process of this earthquake through the multiple time-window linear waveform inversion method (Hartzell and Heaton, 1983). We used velocity waveforms in 0.05-1 Hz from 12 strong motion stations of K-NET, KiK-net (NIED), JMA, and Nagano prefecture (SK-net, ERI). In order to enhance the reliability in Green's functions, we assumed one-dimensional velocity structure models different for the different stations, which were extracted from the nation-wide three-dimensional velocity structure model, Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model (JIVSM, Koketsu et al., 2012). Considering the spatial distribution of aftershocks (Sakai et al., 2015) and surface ruptures, the assumed fault model consisted of two dip-bending fault segments with different dip angles between the northern and southern segments. The total length and width of the fault plane is 20 km and 13 km, relatively, and the fault model is divided into 260 subfaults of 1 km × 1 km in space and six smoothed ramp functions in time. An asperity or large slip area with a peak slip of 1.9 m was estimated in the lower plane of the northern segment in the approximate depth range of 4 to 8 km. The depth extent of this asperity is consistent with the seismogenic zone revealed by past studies (e.g., Panayotopoulos et al., 2014). In contrast, the slip in the southern segment is relatively concentrated in the shallow portion of the segment where the surface ruptures were found along the Kamishiro fault. The overall spatial rupture pattern of the source fault, in which the deep asperity was located on the northern segment and surface rupture was found on the southern segment, seems to be spatially consistent with the mapped active faults. These findings suggest characteristic and repeating features of fault ruptures along active faults where static offsets have accumulated over past events, and it would be a good constraint on earthquake scenarios along it.

Did stress triggering cause the large off-fault aftershocks of the 25 March 1998 MW=8.1 Antarctic plate earthquake?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.

2000-01-01

The 1998 Antarctic plate earthquake produced clusters of aftershocks (MW ??? 6.4) up to 80 km from the fault rupture and up to 100 km beyond the end of the rupture. Because the mainshock occurred far from the nearest plate boundary and the nearest recorded earthquake, it is unusually isolated from the stress perturbations caused by other earthquakes, making it a good candidate for stress transfer analysis despite the absence of near-field observations. We tested whether the off-fault aftershocks lie in regions brought closer to Coulomb failure by the main rupture. We evaluated four published source models for the main rupture. In fourteen tests using different aftershocks sets and allowing the rupture sources to be shifted within their uncertainties, 6 were significant at ??? 99% confidence, 3 at > 95% confidence, and 5 were not significant (< 95% level). For the 9 successful tests, the stress at the site of the aftershocks was typically increased by 1-2 bars (0.1-0.2 MPa). Thus the Antarctic plate event, together with the 1992 MW=7.3 Landers and its MW=6.5 Big Bear aftershock 40 km from the main fault, supply evidence that small stress changes might indeed trigger large earthquakes far from the main fault rupture.

A Bayesian approach to earthquake source studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minson, Sarah

Bayesian sampling has several advantages over conventional optimization approaches to solving inverse problems. It produces the distribution of all possible models sampled proportionally to how much each model is consistent with the data and the specified prior information, and thus images the entire solution space, revealing the uncertainties and trade-offs in the model. Bayesian sampling is applicable to both linear and non-linear modeling, and the values of the model parameters being sampled can be constrained based on the physics of the process being studied and do not have to be regularized. However, these methods are computationally challenging for high-dimensional problems. Until now the computational expense of Bayesian sampling has been too great for it to be practicable for most geophysical problems. I present a new parallel sampling algorithm called CATMIP for Cascading Adaptive Tempered Metropolis In Parallel. This technique, based on Transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo, makes it possible to sample distributions in many hundreds of dimensions, if the forward model is fast, or to sample computationally expensive forward models in smaller numbers of dimensions. The design of the algorithm is independent of the model being sampled, so CATMIP can be applied to many areas of research. I use CATMIP to produce a finite fault source model for the 2007 Mw 7.7 Tocopilla, Chile earthquake. Surface displacements from the earthquake were recorded by six interferograms and twelve local high-rate GPS stations. Because of the wealth of near-fault data, the source process is well-constrained. I find that the near-field high-rate GPS data have significant resolving power above and beyond the slip distribution determined from static displacements. The location and magnitude of the maximum displacement are resolved. The rupture almost certainly propagated at sub-shear velocities. The full posterior distribution can be used not only to calculate source parameters but also to determine their uncertainties. So while kinematic source modeling and the estimation of source parameters is not new, with CATMIP I am able to use Bayesian sampling to determine which parts of the source process are well-constrained and which are not.

Nitsche Extended Finite Element Methods for Earthquake Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coon, Ethan T.

Modeling earthquakes and geologically short-time-scale events on fault networks is a difficult problem with important implications for human safety and design. These problems demonstrate a. rich physical behavior, in which distributed loading localizes both spatially and temporally into earthquakes on fault systems. This localization is governed by two aspects: friction and fault geometry. Computationally, these problems provide a stern challenge for modelers --- static and dynamic equations must be solved on domains with discontinuities on complex fault systems, and frictional boundary conditions must be applied on these discontinuities. The most difficult aspect of modeling physics on complicated domains is the mesh. Most numerical methods involve meshing the geometry; nodes are placed on the discontinuities, and edges are chosen to coincide with faults. The resulting mesh is highly unstructured, making the derivation of finite difference discretizations difficult. Therefore, most models use the finite element method. Standard finite element methods place requirements on the mesh for the sake of stability, accuracy, and efficiency. The formation of a mesh which both conforms to fault geometry and satisfies these requirements is an open problem, especially for three dimensional, physically realistic fault. geometries. In addition, if the fault system evolves over the course of a dynamic simulation (i.e. in the case of growing cracks or breaking new faults), the geometry must he re-meshed at each time step. This can be expensive computationally. The fault-conforming approach is undesirable when complicated meshes are required, and impossible to implement when the geometry is evolving. Therefore, meshless and hybrid finite element methods that handle discontinuities without placing them on element boundaries are a desirable and natural way to discretize these problems. Several such methods are being actively developed for use in engineering mechanics involving crack propagation and material failure. While some theory and application of these methods exist, implementations for the simulation of networks of many cracks have not yet been considered. For my thesis, I implement and extend one such method, the eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM), for use in static and dynamic models of fault networks. Once this machinery is developed, it is applied to open questions regarding the behavior of networks of faults, including questions of distributed deformation in fault systems and ensembles of magnitude, location, and frequency in repeat ruptures. The theory of XFEM is augmented to allow for solution of problems with alternating regimes of static solves for elastic stress conditions and short, dynamic earthquakes on networks of faults. This is accomplished using Nitsche's approach for implementing boundary conditions. Finally, an optimization problem is developed to determine tractions along the fault, enabling the calculation of frictional constraints and the rupture front. This method is verified via a series of static, quasistatic, and dynamic problems. Armed with this technique, we look at several problems regarding geometry within the earthquake cycle in which geometry is crucial. We first look at quasistatic simulations on a community fault model of Southern California, and model slip distribution across that system. We find the distribution of deformation across faults compares reasonably well with slip rates across the region, as constrained by geologic data. We find geometry can provide constraints for friction, and consider the minimization of shear strain across the zone as a function of friction and plate loading direction, and infer bounds on fault strength in the region. Then we consider the repeated rupture problem, modeling the full earthquake cycle over the course of many events on several fault geometries. In this work, we look at distributions of events, studying the effect of geometry on statistical metrics of event ensembles. Finally, this thesis is a proof of concept for the XFEM on earthquake cycle models on fault systems. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the method, and identify places for future improvement. We discuss the feasibility of the method's use in three dimensions, and find the method to be a strong candidate for future crustal deformation simulations.

Toward the Reliability of Fault Representation Methods in Finite Difference Schemes for Simulation of Shear Rupture Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalguer, L. A.; Day, S. M.

2006-12-01

Accuracy in finite difference (FD) solutions to spontaneous rupture problems is controlled principally by the scheme used to represent the fault discontinuity, and not by the grid geometry used to represent the continuum. We have numerically tested three fault representation methods, the Thick Fault (TF) proposed by Madariaga et al (1998), the Stress Glut (SG) described by Andrews (1999), and the Staggered-Grid Split-Node (SGSN) methods proposed by Dalguer and Day (2006), each implemented in a the fourth-order velocity-stress staggered-grid (VSSG) FD scheme. The TF and the SG methods approximate the discontinuity through inelastic increments to stress components ("inelastic-zone" schemes) at a set of stress grid points taken to lie on the fault plane. With this type of scheme, the fault surface is indistinguishable from an inelastic zone with a thickness given by a spatial step dx for the SG, and 2dx for the TF model. The SGSN method uses the traction-at-split-node (TSN) approach adapted to the VSSG FD. This method represents the fault discontinuity by explicitly incorporating discontinuity terms at velocity nodes in the grid, with interactions between the "split nodes" occurring exclusively through the tractions (frictional resistance) acting between them. These tractions in turn are controlled by the jump conditions and a friction law. Our 3D tests problem solutions show that the inelastic-zone TF and SG methods show much poorer performance than does the SGSN formulation. The SG inelastic-zone method achieved solutions that are qualitatively meaningful and quantitatively reliable to within a few percent. The TF inelastic-zone method did not achieve qualitatively agreement with the reference solutions to the 3D test problem, and proved to be sufficiently computationally inefficient that it was not feasible to explore convergence quantitatively. The SGSN method gives very accurate solutions, and is also very efficient. Reliable solution of the rupture time is reached with a median resolution of the cohesive zone of only ~2 grid points, and efficiency is competitive with the Boundary Integral (BI) method. The results presented here demonstrate that appropriate fault representation in a numerical scheme is crucial to reduce uncertainties in numerical simulations of earthquake source dynamics and ground motion, and therefore important to improving our understanding of earthquake physics in general.

Earthquake cycle modeling of multi-segmented faults: dynamic rupture and ground motion simulation of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petukhin, A.; Galvez, P.; Somerville, P.; Ampuero, J. P.

2017-12-01

We perform earthquake cycle simulations to study the characteristics of source scaling relations and strong ground motions and in multi-segmented fault ruptures. For earthquake cycle modeling, a quasi-dynamic solver (QDYN, Luo et al, 2016) is used to nucleate events and the fully dynamic solver (SPECFEM3D, Galvez et al., 2014, 2016) is used to simulate earthquake ruptures. The Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake has been chosen as a target earthquake to validate our methodology. The SCEC fault geometry for the three-segmented Landers rupture is included and extended at both ends to a total length of 200 km. We followed the 2-D spatial correlated Dc distributions based on Hillers et. al. (2007) that associates Dc distribution with different degrees of fault maturity. The fault maturity is related to the variability of Dc on a microscopic scale. Large variations of Dc represents immature faults and lower variations of Dc represents mature faults. Moreover we impose a taper (a-b) at the fault edges and limit the fault depth to 15 km. Using these settings, earthquake cycle simulations are performed to nucleate seismic events on different sections of the fault, and dynamic rupture modeling is used to propagate the ruptures. The fault segmentation brings complexity into the rupture process. For instance, the change of strike between fault segments enhances strong variations of stress. In fact, Oglesby and Mai (2012) show the normal stress varies from positive (clamping) to negative (unclamping) between fault segments, which leads to favorable or unfavorable conditions for rupture growth. To replicate these complexities and the effect of fault segmentation in the rupture process, we perform earthquake cycles with dynamic rupture modeling and generate events similar to the Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake. We extract the asperities of these events and analyze the scaling relations between rupture area, average slip and combined area of asperities versus moment magnitude. Finally, the simulated ground motions will be validated by comparison of simulated response spectra with recorded response spectra and with response spectra from ground motion prediction models. This research is sponsored by the Japan Nuclear Regulation Authority.

Prediction of Strong Earthquake Ground Motion for the M=7.4 and M=7.2 1999, Turkey Earthquakes based upon Geological Structure Modeling and Local Earthquake Recordings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gok, R.; Hutchings, L.

2004-05-01

We test a means to predict strong ground motion using the Mw=7.4 and Mw=7.2 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes. We generate 100 rupture scenarios for each earthquake, constrained by a prior knowledge, and use these to synthesize strong ground motion and make the prediction. Ground motion is synthesized with the representation relation using impulsive point source Green's functions and synthetic source models. We synthesize the earthquakes from DC to 25 Hz. We demonstrate how to incorporate this approach into standard probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). The synthesis of earthquakes is based upon analysis of over 3,000 aftershocks recorded by several seismic networks. The analysis provides source parameters of the aftershocks; records available for use as empirical Green's functions; and a three-dimensional velocity structure from tomographic inversion. The velocity model is linked to a finite difference wave propagation code (E3D, Larsen 1998) to generate synthetic Green's functions (DC < f < 0.5 Hz). We performed the simultaneous inversion for hypocenter locations and three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure of the Marmara region using SIMULPS14 along with 2,500 events. We also obtained source moment and corner frequency and individual station attenuation parameter estimates for over 500 events by performing a simultaneous inversion to fit these parameters with a Brune source model. We used the results of the source inversion to deconvolve out a Brune model from small to moderate size earthquake (M<4.0) recordings to obtain empirical Green's functions for the higher frequency range of ground motion (0.5 < f < 25.0 Hz). Work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-ENG-48.

Hazard assessment of long-period ground motions for the Nankai Trough earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Morikawa, N.; Aoi, S.; Fujiwara, H.

2013-12-01

We evaluate a seismic hazard for long-period ground motions associated with the Nankai Trough earthquakes (M8~9) in southwest Japan. Large interplate earthquakes occurring around the Nankai Trough have caused serious damages due to strong ground motions and tsunami; most recent events were in 1944 and 1946. Such large interplate earthquake potentially causes damages to high-rise and large-scale structures due to long-period ground motions (e.g., 1985 Michoacan earthquake in Mexico, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake in Japan). The long-period ground motions are amplified particularly on basins. Because major cities along the Nankai Trough have developed on alluvial plains, it is therefore important to evaluate long-period ground motions as well as strong motions and tsunami for the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquakes. The long-period ground motions are evaluated by the finite difference method (FDM) using 'characterized source models' and the 3-D underground structure model. The 'characterized source model' refers to a source model including the source parameters necessary for reproducing the strong ground motions. The parameters are determined based on a 'recipe' for predicting strong ground motion (Earthquake Research Committee (ERC), 2009). We construct various source models (~100 scenarios) giving the various case of source parameters such as source region, asperity configuration, and hypocenter location. Each source region is determined by 'the long-term evaluation of earthquakes in the Nankai Trough' published by ERC. The asperity configuration and hypocenter location control the rupture directivity effects. These parameters are important because our preliminary simulations are strongly affected by the rupture directivity. We apply the system called GMS (Ground Motion Simulator) for simulating the seismic wave propagation based on 3-D FDM scheme using discontinuous grids (Aoi and Fujiwara, 1999) to our study. The grid spacing for the shallow region is 200 m and 100 m in horizontal and vertical, respectively. The grid spacing for the deep region is three times coarser. The total number of grid points is about three billion. The 3-D underground structure model used in the FD simulation is the Japan integrated velocity structure model (ERC, 2012). Our simulation is valid for period more than two seconds due to the lowest S-wave velocity and grid spacing. However, because the characterized source model may not sufficiently support short period components, we should be interpreted the reliable period of this simulation with caution. Therefore, we consider the period more than five seconds instead of two seconds for further analysis. We evaluate the long-period ground motions using the velocity response spectra for the period range between five and 20 second. The preliminary simulation shows a large variation of response spectra at a site. This large variation implies that the ground motion is very sensitive to different scenarios. And it requires studying the large variation to understand the seismic hazard. Our further study will obtain the hazard curves for the Nankai Trough earthquake (M 8~9) by applying the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to the simulation results.

A comparative study of ground motion hybrid simulations and the modified NGA ground motion predictive equations for directivity and its application to the the Marmara Sea region (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pischiutta, M.; Akinci, A.; Spagnuolo, E.; Taroni, M.; Herrero, A.; Aochi, H.

2016-12-01

We have simulated strong ground motions for two Mw>7.0 rupture scenarios on the North Anatolian Fault, in the Marmara Sea within 10-20 km from Istanbul. This city is characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in Europe and the Mediterranean region. The increased risk in Istanbul is due to eight destructive earthquakes that ruptured the fault system and left a seismic gap at the western portion of the 1000km-long North Anatolian Fault Zone. To estimate the ground motion characteristics and its variability in the region we have simulated physics-based rupture scenarios, producing hybrid broadband time histories. We have merged two simulation techniques: a full 3D wave propagation method to generate low-frequency seismograms (Aochi and Ulrich, 2015) and the stochastic finite-fault model approach based on a dynamic corner frequency (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005) to simulate high-frequency seismograms (Akinci et al., 2016, submitted to BSSA, 2016). They are merged to compute realistic broadband hybrid time histories. The comparison of ground motion intensity measures (PGA, PGV, SA) resulting from our simulations with those predicted by the recent Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) in the region (Boore & Atkinson, 2008; Chiou & Young, 2008; Akkar & Bommer, 2010; Akkar & Cagnan, 2010) seems to indicate that rupture directivity and super-shear rupture effects affect the ground motion in the Marmara Sea region. In order to account for the rupture directivity we improve the comparison using the directivity predictor proposed by Spudich & Chiu (2008). This study highlights the importance of the rupture directivity for the hazard estimation in the Marmara Sea region, especially for the city of Istanbul.

Strong Ground Motion Generation during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.; Iwata, T.

2011-12-01

Strong ground motions during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0) were densely observed by the strong motion observation networks all over Japan. Seeing the acceleration and velocity waveforms observed at strong stations in northeast Japan along the source region, those ground motions are characterized by plural wave packets with duration of about twenty seconds. Particularly, two wave packets separated by about fifty seconds could be found on the records in the northern part of the damaged area, whereas only one significant wave packets could be recognized on the records in the southern part of the damaged area. The record section shows four isolated wave packets propagating from different locations to north and south, and it gives us a hint of the strong motion generation process on the source fault which is related to the heterogeneous rupture process in the scale of tens of kilometers. In order to solve it, we assume that each isolated wave packet is contributed by the corresponding strong motion generation area (SMGA). It is a source patch whose slip velocity is larger than off the area (Miyake et al., 2003). That is, the source model of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake consists of four SMGAs. The SMGA source model has succeeded in reproducing broadband strong ground motions for past subduction-zone events (e.g., Suzuki and Iwata, 2007). The target frequency range is set to be 0.1-10 Hz in this study as this range is significantly related to seismic damage generation to general man-made structures. First, we identified the rupture starting points of each SMGA by picking up the onset of individual packets. The source fault plane is set following the GCMT solution. The first two SMGAs were located approximately 70 km and 30 km west of the hypocenter. The third and forth SMGAs were located approximately 160 km and 230 km southwest of the hypocenter. Then, the model parameters (size, rise time, stress drop, rupture velocity, rupture propagation pattern) of these four SMGAs were determined by waveform modeling using the empirical Green's function method (Irikura, 1986). The first and second SMGAs are located close to each other, and they are partially overlapped though the difference in the rupture time between them is more than 40 s. Those two SMGA appear to be included in the source region of the past repeating Miyagi-Oki subduction-zone event in 1936. The third and fourth SMGAs appear to be located in the source region of the past Fukushima-Oki events in 1938. Each of Those regions has been expected to cause next major earthquakes in the long-term evaluation. The obtained source model explains the acceleration, velocity, and displacement time histories in the target frequency range at most stations well. All of four SMGAs exist apparently outside of the large slip area along the trench east of the hypocenter, which was estimated by the seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversion analyses, and this large slip zone near the trench does not contribute to strong motion much. At this point, we can conclude that the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake has a possibility to be a complex event rupturing multiple preexisting asperities in terms of strong ground motion generation. It should be helpful to validate and improve the applicability of the strong motion prediction recipe for great subduction-zone earthquakes.

Lithospheric Structure and Active Deformation in the Salton Trough from Coseismic and Postseismic Models of the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fielding, E. J.; Huang, M. H.; Dickinson, H.; Freed, A. M.; Burgmann, R.; Gonzalez-Ortega, J. A.; Andronicos, C.

2016-12-01

The 4 April 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC) Earthquake ruptured about 120 km along several NW-striking faults to the west of the Cerro Prieto Fault in the Salton Trough of Baja California, Mexico. We analyzed interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR), SAR and optical pixel offsets, and continuous and campaign GPS data to optimize an EMC coseismic rupture model with 9 fault segments, which fits the complex structure of the faults. Coseismic slip inversion with a layered elastic model shows that largely right-lateral slip is confined to upper 10 km with strong variations along strike. Near-field GPS measures slip on a north-striking normal fault that ruptured at the beginning of the earthquake, previously inferred from seismic waveforms. EMC Earthquake postseismic deformation shows the Earth's response to the large coseismic stress changes. InSAR shows rapid shallow afterslip at the north and south ends of the main ruptures. Continuous GPS from the Plate Boundary Observatory operated by UNAVCO measures the first six years of postseismic deformation, extremely rapid near the rupture. Afterslip on faults beneath the coseismic rupture cannot explain far-field displacements that are best explained by viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. We built a viscoelastic 3D finite element model of the lithosphere and asthenosphere based on available data for the region with the EMC coseismic faults embedded inside. Coseismic slip was imposed on the model, allowed to relax for 5 years, and then compared to the observed surface deformation. Systematic exploration of the viscoelastic parameters shows that horizontal and vertical heterogeneity is required to fit the postseismic deformation. Our preferred viscoelastic model has weaker viscosity layers beneath the Salton Trough than adjacent blocks that are consistent with the inferred differences in the geotherms. Defining mechanical lithosphere as rocks that have viscosities greater than 10^19 Pa s (able to sustain stresses for more than 100 years), we infer the thickness of lithosphere beneath the Salton Trough to be 32 km and 65 km beneath the Peninsula Ranges to the west. These mechanical lithosphere-asthenosphere boundaries (LABs) are shallower than the observed seismic LABs, but probably better represent the strength of the blocks in this area.

Force-Induced Rupture of a DNA Duplex: From Fundamentals to Force Sensors.

PubMed

Mosayebi, Majid; Louis, Ard A; Doye, Jonathan P K; Ouldridge, Thomas E

2015-12-22

The rupture of double-stranded DNA under stress is a key process in biophysics and nanotechnology. In this article, we consider the shear-induced rupture of short DNA duplexes, a system that has been given new importance by recently designed force sensors and nanotechnological devices. We argue that rupture must be understood as an activated process, where the duplex state is metastable and the strands will separate in a finite time that depends on the duplex length and the force applied. Thus, the critical shearing force required to rupture a duplex depends strongly on the time scale of observation. We use simple models of DNA to show that this approach naturally captures the observed dependence of the force required to rupture a duplex within a given time on duplex length. In particular, this critical force is zero for the shortest duplexes, before rising sharply and then plateauing in the long length limit. The prevailing approach, based on identifying when the presence of each additional base pair within the duplex is thermodynamically unfavorable rather than allowing for metastability, does not predict a time-scale-dependent critical force and does not naturally incorporate a critical force of zero for the shortest duplexes. We demonstrate that our findings have important consequences for the behavior of a new force-sensing nanodevice, which operates in a mixed mode that interpolates between shearing and unzipping. At a fixed time scale and duplex length, the critical force exhibits a sigmoidal dependence on the fraction of the duplex that is subject to shearing.

Inversion of Orkney M5.5 earthquake South Africa using strain meters at very close distances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasutomi, T.; Mori, J. J.; Yamada, M.; Ogasawara, H.; Okubo, M.; Ogasawara, H.; Ishida, A.

2017-12-01

The largest event recorded in a South African gold mining region, a M5.5 earthquake took place near Orkney on 5 August 2014. The mainshock and afterhocks were recorded by 46 geophones at 2-3 km depths, 3 Ishii borehole strainmeters at 2.9km depth, and 17 surface strong motion instruments at close distances. The upper edge of the planar distribution of aftershock activity dips almost vertically and was only several hundred meters below the sites where the strainmeters were installed. In addition the seismic data, drilling across this fault is now in progress (Jun 2017 to December 2017) and will contribute valuable geological and stress information. Although the geophones data were saturated during the mainshock, the strainmeters recorded clear nearfield waveforms. We try to model the source of the M5.5 mainshock using the nearfield strainmeter data. Two strain meters located at same place, depth at 2.8km. Remaining one is located depth at 2.9km. Distance of each other is only 150m. Located at depth 2.9km recorded large stable strain, on the other hand, located at depth 2.8 km recorded three or four times smaller stable strain than 2.9km. These data indicates the distance between M5.5 fault and 2.9km depth strainmeter is a few hundred meters order. The strain Green functions were calculated assuming an infinite medium and using a finite difference method. We use small aftershocks to verify the Green function. Matching of the waveforms for the small events validates and Green functions used for the mainshock inversion. We present a model of the source rupture using these strain data. The nearfield data provide good resolution of the nearby earthquake rupture. There are two large subevents, one near the hypocenter and the second several hundred meters to the west.

Amplification of tsunami heights by delayed rupture of great earthquakes along the Nankai trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imai, K.; Satake, K.; Furumura, T.

2010-04-01

We investigated the effect of delayed rupture of great earthquakes along the Nankai trough on tsunami heights on the Japanese coast. As the tsunami source, we used a model of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which consists of four segments: Tokai, Tonankai, and two Nankai segments. We first searched for the worst case, in terms of coastal tsunami heights, of rupture delay time on each segment, on the basis of superposition principle for the linear long wave theory. When the rupture starts on the Tonankai segment, followed by rupture on the Tokai segment 21 min later, as well as the eastern and western Nankai segments 15 and 28 min later, respectively, the average coastal tsunami height becomes the largest. To quantify the tsunami amplification, we compared the coastal tsunami heights from the delayed rupture with those from the simultaneous rupture model. Along the coasts of the sea of Hyu'uga and in the Bungo Channel, the tsunami heights become significantly amplified (>1.4 times larger) relative to the simultaneous rupture. Along the coasts of Tosa Bay and in the Kii Channel, the tsunami heights become amplified about 1.2 times. Along the coasts of the sea of Kumano and Ise Bay, and the western Enshu coast, the tsunami heights become slightly smaller for the delayed rupture. Along the eastern Enshu coast, the coast of Suruga Bay, and the west coast of Sagami Bay, the tsunami heights become amplified about 1.1 times.

The 2017 Mw = 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake: a slab bending or slab pull rupture?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duputel, Z.; Gombert, B.; Simons, M.; Fielding, E. J.; Rivera, L. A.; Bekaert, D. P.; Jiang, J.; Liang, C.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

On September 8th 2017, a regionally destructive Mw 8.2 intra-slab earthquake struck Mexico in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. While large intermediate depth intra-slab earthquakes are a major hazard, we have only a limited knowledge of the strain budgets within subducting slabs. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain intraplate earthquakes in subduction zones. Bending stresses might cause the occurrence of seismic events located at depths where the slab dip changes abruptly. However, an alternative explanation is needed if the ruptures are found to propagate through the entire lithosphere. Depending on the coupling of the subduction interface, intraplate earthquakes occurring updip or downdip of the locked zone could also be caused by the negative buoyancy of the sinking slab (i.e., slab pull). The increasing availability of near-fault data provides a unique opportunity to better constrain the seismogenic behavior of large intra-slab earthquakes. Teleseismic analyses of the 2017 Tehuantepec earthquake lead to contrasting statements about the depth extent of the rupture: while most of long period centroid moment tensor inversions yield fairly large centroid depths (>40 km), some finite-fault models suggest much shallower slip concentrated at depths less than 30 km. In this study, we analyze GPS, InSAR, tsunami and seismological data to constrain the earthquake location, fault geometry and slip distribution. We use a Bayesian approach devoid of significant spatial smoothing to characterize the range of allowable rupture depths. In addition, to cope with potential artifacts in centroid depth estimates due to unmodeled lateral heterogeneities, we also analyze long-period seismological data using a full 3D Earth model. Preliminary results suggest a fairly deep rupture consistent with a slab-pull process breaking a significant proportion of the lithosphere and potentially reflecting at least local detachment of the slab.

Source Rupture Process for the February 21, 2011, Mw6.1, New Zealand Earthquake and the Characteristics of Near-field Strong Ground Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Shi, B.

2011-12-01

The New Zealand Earthquake of February 21, 2011, Mw 6.1 occurred in the South Island, New Zealand with the epicenter at longitude 172.70°E and latitude 43.58°S, and with depth of 5 km. The Mw 6.1 earthquake occurred on an unknown blind fault involving oblique-thrust faulting, which is 9 km away from southern of the Christchurch, the third largest city of New Zealand, with a striking direction from east toward west (United State Geology Survey, USGS, 2011). The earthquake killed at least 163 people and caused a lot of construction damages in Christchurch city. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) observed at station Heathcote Valley Primary School (HVSC), which is 1 km away from the epicenter, is up to almost 2.0g. The ground-motion observation suggests that the buried earthquake source generates much higher near-fault ground motion. In this study, we have analyzed the earthquake source spectral parameters based on the strong motion observations, and estimated the near-fault ground motion based on the Brune's circular fault model. The results indicate that the larger ground motion may be caused by a higher dynamic stress drop,Δσd , or effect stress drop named by Brune, in the major source rupture region. In addition, a dynamical composite source model (DCSM) has been developed to simulate the near-fault strong ground motion with associated fault rupture properties from the kinematic point of view. For comparison purpose, we also conducted the broadband ground motion predictions for the station of HVSC; the synthetic seismogram of time histories produced for this station has good agreement with the observations in the waveforms, peak values and frequency contents, which clearly indicate that the higher dynamic stress drop during the fault rupture may play an important role to the anomalous ground-motion amplification. The preliminary simulated result illustrated in at Station HVSC is that the synthetics seismograms have a realistic appearance in the waveform and time duration to the observations, especially for the vertical component. Synthetics Fourier spectra are reasonably similar to the recordings. The simulated PGA values of vertical and S26W components are consistent with the recorded, and for the S64E component, the PGA derived from our simulation is smaller than that from observation. The resultant Fourier spectra both for the synthetic and observation is much similar with each other for three components of acceleration time histories, except for the vertical component, where the derived spectra from synthetic data is smaller than that resultant from observation when the frequency is above 10 Hz. Both theoretical study and numerical simulation indicate that, for the 2011 Mw 6.1, New Zealand Earthquake, the higher dynamic stress drop during the source rupture process could play an important role to the anomalous ground-motion amplification beside to the other site-related seismic effects. The composite source modeling based on the simple Brune's pulse model could approximately provide us a good insight into earthquake source related rupture processes for a moderate-sized earthquake.

Finite Element modelling of deformation induced by interacting volcanic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascal, Karen; Neuberg, Jürgen; Rivalta, Eleonora

2010-05-01

The displacement field due to magma movements in the subsurface is commonly modelled using the solutions for a point source (Mogi, 1958), a finite spherical source (McTigue, 1987), or a dislocation source (Okada, 1992) embedded in a homogeneous elastic half-space. When the magmatic system comprises more than one source, the assumption of homogeneity in the half-space is violated and several sources are combined, their respective deformation field being summed. We have investigated the effects of neglecting the interaction between sources on the surface deformation field. To do so, we calculated the vertical and horizontal displacements for models with adjacent sources and we tested them against the solutions of corresponding numerical 3D finite element models. We implemented several models combining spherical pressure sources and dislocation sources, varying their relative position. Furthermore we considered the impact of topography, loading, and magma compressibility. To quantify the discrepancies and compare the various models, we calculated the difference between analytical and numerical maximum horizontal or vertical surface displacements.We will demonstrate that for certain conditions combining analytical sources can cause an error of up to 20%. References: McTigue, D. F. (1987), Elastic Stress and Deformation Near a Finite Spherical Magma Body: Resolution of the Point Source Paradox, J. Geophys. Res. 92, 12931-12940. Mogi, K. (1958), Relations between the eruptions of various volcanoes and the deformations of the ground surfaces around them, Bull Earthquake Res Inst, Univ Tokyo 36, 99-134. Okada, Y. (1992), Internal Deformation Due to Shear and Tensile Faults in a Half-Space, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 82(2), 1018-1040.

The MV model of the color glass condensate for a finite number of sources including Coulomb interactions

DOE PAGES

McLerran, Larry; Skokov, Vladimir V.

2016-09-19

We modify the McLerran–Venugopalan model to include only a finite number of sources of color charge. In the effective action for such a system of a finite number of sources, there is a point-like interaction and a Coulombic interaction. The point interaction generates the standard fluctuation term in the McLerran–Venugopalan model. The Coulomb interaction generates the charge screening originating from well known evolution in x. Such a model may be useful for computing angular harmonics of flow measured in high energy hadron collisions for small systems. In this study we provide a basic formulation of the problem on a lattice.

Observations of the rupture development process from source time functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renou, Julien; Vallée, Martin

2017-04-01

The mechanisms governing the seismic rupture expansion and leading to earthquakes of very different magnitudes are still under debate. In the cascade model, the rupture starts from a very small patch, which size is undetectable by seismological investigation. Then rupture grows in a self-similar way, implying that no clues about the earthquake magnitude can be found before rupture starts declining. However dependencies between early phases of the rupture process and final magnitude have also been proposed, which can be explained if an earthquake is more likely to be a big one when its start and early development occur in rupture-prone areas. Here, the analysis of the early phases of the seismic rupture is achieved from an observational point of view using the SCARDEC database, a global catalog containing more than 3000 Source Time Functions (STFs) of earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.7. This dataset is theoretically very suitable to investigate the initial phase, because STFs directly describe the seismic moment rate released over time, giving access to the rupture growth behavior. As several studies already showed that deep earthquakes tend to have a specific signature of short duration with respect to magnitude (implying a quicker rupture growth than superficial events), only shallow events (depths < 70km) are analyzed here. Our method consists in computing the STFs slope, i.e. the seismic moment acceleration, at several prescribed moment rates. In order to ensure that the chosen moment rates intersect the growth phase of the STF, its value must be high enough to avoid the very beginning of the signal -not well constrained in the deconvolution process-, and low enough to avoid the proximity of the peak moment rate. This approach does not use any rupture time information, which is interesting as (1) the exact hypocentral time can be uncertain and (2) the real rupture expansion can be delayed compared to origin time. If any magnitude-dependent signal exists, the average or median value of the slope should vary with the magnitude of the events, despite the intrinsic variability of the STFs. The preliminary results from the SCARDEC dataset seem to only exhibit a weak dependence of the slope with magnitude, in the magnitude domain where the chosen moment rate value crosses most of the STFs onsets. In addition, our results point out that slope values gradually increase with the moment rate. These findings will be discussed in the frame of the existing models of seismic rupture expansion.

Rupture characteristics of the 2016 Meinong earthquake revealed by the back projection and directivity analysis of teleseismic broadband waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, Pei-Ru; Hung, Shu-Huei; Meng, Lingsen; Sun, Daoyuan

2017-04-01

The 2016 Mw 6.4 Meinong earthquake struck a previously unrecognized fault zone in midcrust beneath south Taiwan and inflicted heavy causalities in the populated Tainan City about 30 km northwest of the epicenter. Because of its relatively short rupture duration and P wave trains contaminated by large-amplitude depth phases and reverberations generated in the source region, accurate characterization of the rupture process and source properties for such a shallow strong earthquake remains challenging. Here we present a first high-resolution MUltiple SIgnal Classification back projection source image by using both P and depth-phase sP waves recorded at two large and dense arrays to understand the source behavior and consequent hazards of this peculiar catastrophic event. The results further corroborated by the directivity analysis indicate a unilateral rupture propagating northwestward and slightly downward on the shallow NE-dipping fault plane. The source radiation process is primarily characterized by one single peak, 7 s duration, with a total rupture length of 17 km and average rupture speed of 2.4 km/s. The rupture terminated immediately east of the prominent off-fault aftershock cluster about 20 km northwest of the hypocenter. Synergistic amplification of ground shaking by the directivity and strong excitation of sP and reverberations mainly caused the destruction concentrated in the area further to the northwest away from the rupture zone.

Numerical Methods for the Analysis of Power Transformer Tank Deformation and Rupture Due to Internal Arcing Faults

PubMed Central

Yan, Chenguang; Hao, Zhiguo; Zhang, Song; Zhang, Baohui; Zheng, Tao

2015-01-01

Power transformer rupture and fire resulting from an arcing fault inside the tank usually leads to significant security risks and serious economic loss. In order to reveal the essence of tank deformation or explosion, this paper presents a 3-D numerical computational tool to simulate the structural dynamic behavior due to overpressure inside transformer tank. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a 17.3MJ and a 6.3MJ arcing fault were simulated on a real full-scale 360MVA/220kV oil-immersed transformer model, respectively. By employing the finite element method, the transformer internal overpressure distribution, wave propagation and von-Mises stress were solved. The numerical results indicate that the increase of pressure and mechanical stress distribution are non-uniform and the stress tends to concentrate on connecting parts of the tank as the fault time evolves. Given this feature, it becomes possible to reduce the risk of transformer tank rupture through limiting the fault energy and enhancing the mechanical strength of the local stress concentrative areas. The theoretical model and numerical simulation method proposed in this paper can be used as a substitute for risky and costly field tests in fault overpressure analysis and tank mitigation design of transformers. PMID:26230392

Numerical Methods for the Analysis of Power Transformer Tank Deformation and Rupture Due to Internal Arcing Faults.

PubMed

Yan, Chenguang; Hao, Zhiguo; Zhang, Song; Zhang, Baohui; Zheng, Tao

2015-01-01

Power transformer rupture and fire resulting from an arcing fault inside the tank usually leads to significant security risks and serious economic loss. In order to reveal the essence of tank deformation or explosion, this paper presents a 3-D numerical computational tool to simulate the structural dynamic behavior due to overpressure inside transformer tank. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a 17.3 MJ and a 6.3 MJ arcing fault were simulated on a real full-scale 360MVA/220kV oil-immersed transformer model, respectively. By employing the finite element method, the transformer internal overpressure distribution, wave propagation and von-Mises stress were solved. The numerical results indicate that the increase of pressure and mechanical stress distribution are non-uniform and the stress tends to concentrate on connecting parts of the tank as the fault time evolves. Given this feature, it becomes possible to reduce the risk of transformer tank rupture through limiting the fault energy and enhancing the mechanical strength of the local stress concentrative areas. The theoretical model and numerical simulation method proposed in this paper can be used as a substitute for risky and costly field tests in fault overpressure analysis and tank mitigation design of transformers.

Source rupture process of the 12 January 2010 Port-au-Prince (Haiti, Mw7.0) earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges, José; Caldeira, Bento; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Santos, Rúben

2010-05-01

The Haiti earthquake occurred on tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 21:53:10 UTC. Its epicenter was at 18.46 degrees North, 72.53 degrees West, about 25 km WSW of Haiti's capital, Port-au-Prince. The earthquake was relatively shallow (H=13 km, U.S. Geological Survey) and thus had greater intensity and destructiveness. The earthquake occurred along the tectonic boundary between Caribbean and North America plate. This plate boundary is dominated by left-lateral strike slip motion and compression with 2 cm/year of slip velocity eastward with respect to the North America plate. The moment magnitude was measured to be 7.0 (U.S. Geological Survey) and 7.1 (Harvard Centroid-Moment-Tensor (CMT). More than 10 aftershocks ranging from 5.0 to 5.9 in magnitude (none of magnitude larger than 6.0) struck the area in hours following the main shock. Most of these aftershocks have occurred to the West of the mainshock in the Mirogoane Lakes region and its distribution suggests that the length of the rupture was around 70 km. The Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) mechanism solution indicates lefth-lateral strike slip movement with a fault plane trending toward (strike = 251o ; dip = 70o; rake = 28o). In order to obtain the spatiotemporal slip distribution of a finite rupture model we have used teleseismic body wave and the Kikuchi and Kanamori's method [1]. Rupture velocity was constrained by using the directivity effect determined from a set of waveforms well recorded at regional and teleseismic distances [2]. Finally, we compared a map of aftershocks with the Coulomb stress changes caused by the event in the region [3]. [1]- Kikuchi, M., and Kanamori, H., 1982, Inversion of complex body waves: Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., v. 72, p. 491-506. [2] Caldeira B., Bezzeghoud M, Borges JF, 2009; DIRDOP: a directivity approach to determining the seismic rupture velocity vector. J Seismology, DOI 10.1007/s10950-009-9183-x (http://www.springerlink.com/content/xp524g2225628773/) [3] -King, G. C. P., Stein, R. S. y Lin, J, 1994, Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 84,935-953.

Site correction of stochastic simulation in southwestern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lun Huang, Cong; Wen, Kuo Liang; Huang, Jyun Yan

2014-05-01

Peak ground acceleration (PGA) of a disastrous earthquake, is concerned both in civil engineering and seismology study. Presently, the ground motion prediction equation is widely used for PGA estimation study by engineers. However, the local site effect is another important factor participates in strong motion prediction. For example, in 1985 the Mexico City, 400km far from the epicenter, suffered massive damage due to the seismic wave amplification from the local alluvial layers. (Anderson et al., 1986) In past studies, the use of stochastic method had been done and showed well performance on the simulation of ground-motion at rock site (Beresnev and Atkinson, 1998a ; Roumelioti and Beresnev, 2003). In this study, the site correction was conducted by the empirical transfer function compared with the rock site response from stochastic point-source (Boore, 2005) and finite-fault (Boore, 2009) methods. The error between the simulated and observed Fourier spectrum and PGA are calculated. Further we compared the estimated PGA to the result calculated from ground motion prediction equation. The earthquake data used in this study is recorded by Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) from 1991 to 2012; the study area is located at south-western Taiwan. The empirical transfer function was generated by calculating the spectrum ratio between alluvial site and rock site (Borcheret, 1970). Due to the lack of reference rock site station in this area, the rock site ground motion was generated through stochastic point-source model instead. Several target events were then chosen for stochastic point-source simulating to the halfspace. Then, the empirical transfer function for each station was multiplied to the simulated halfspace response. Finally, we focused on two target events: the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6) and the 2010 Jiashian earthquake (Mw=6.4). Considering the large event may contain with complex rupture mechanism, the asperity and delay time for each sub-fault is to be concerned. Both the stochastic point-source and the finite-fault model were used to check the result of our correction.

Dynamic rupture models of subduction zone earthquakes with off-fault plasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wollherr, S.; van Zelst, I.; Gabriel, A. A.; van Dinther, Y.; Madden, E. H.; Ulrich, T.

2017-12-01

Modeling tsunami-genesis based on purely elastic seafloor displacement typically underpredicts tsunami sizes. Dynamic rupture simulations allow to analyse whether plastic energy dissipation is a missing rheological component by capturing the complex interplay of the rupture front, emitted seismic waves and the free surface in the accretionary prism. Strike-slip models with off-fault plasticity suggest decreasing rupture speed and extensive plastic yielding mainly at shallow depths. For simplified subduction geometries inelastic deformation on the verge of Coulomb failure may enhance vertical displacement, which in turn favors the generation of large tsunamis (Ma, 2012). However, constraining appropriate initial conditions in terms of fault geometry, initial fault stress and strength remains challenging. Here, we present dynamic rupture models of subduction zones constrained by long-term seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling (STM) without any a priori assumption of regions of failure. The STM model provides self-consistent slab geometries, as well as stress and strength initial conditions which evolve in response to tectonic stresses, temperature, gravity, plasticity and pressure (van Dinther et al. 2013). Coseismic slip and coupled seismic wave propagation is modelled using the software package SeisSol (www.seissol.org), suited for complex fault zone structures and topography/bathymetry. SeisSol allows for local time-stepping, which drastically reduces the time-to-solution (Uphoff et al., 2017). This is particularly important in large-scale scenarios resolving small-scale features, such as the shallow angle between the megathrust fault and the free surface. Our dynamic rupture model uses a Drucker-Prager plastic yield criterion and accounts for thermal pressurization around the fault mimicking the effect of pore pressure changes due to frictional heating. We first analyze the influence of this rheology on rupture dynamics and tsunamigenic properties, i.e. seafloor displacement, in 2D. Finally, we use the same rheology in a large-scale 3D scenario of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake to shed light to the source process that caused the subsequent devastating tsunami.

Directly Estimating Earthquake Rupture Area using Second Moments to Reduce the Uncertainty in Stress Drop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Kaneko, Yoshihiro

2018-06-01

The key kinematic earthquake source parameters: rupture velocity, duration and area, shed light on earthquake dynamics, provide direct constraints on stress-drop, and have implications for seismic hazard. However, for moderate and small earthquakes, these parameters are usually poorly constrained due to limitations of the standard analysis methods. Numerical experiments by Kaneko and Shearer [2014,2015] demonstrated that standard spectral fitting techniques can lead to roughly 1 order of magnitude variation in stress-drop estimates that do not reflect the actual rupture properties even for simple crack models. We utilize these models to explore an alternative approach where we estimate the rupture area directly. For the suite of models, the area averaged static stress drop is nearly constant for models with the same underlying friction law, yet corner frequency based stress-drop estimates vary by a factor of 5-10 even for noise free data. Alternatively, we simulated inversions for the rupture area as parameterized by the second moments of the slip distribution. A natural estimate for the rupture area derived from the second moments is A=πLcWc, where Lc and Wc are the characteristic rupture length and width. This definition yields estimates of stress drop that vary by only 10% between the models but are slightly larger than the true area-averaged values. We simulate inversions for the second moments for the various models and find that the area can be estimated well when there are at least 15 available measurements of apparent duration at a variety of take-off angles. The improvement compared to azimuthally-averaged corner-frequency based approaches results from the second moments accounting for directivity and removing the assumption of a circular rupture area, both of which bias the standard approach. We also develop a new method that determines the minimum and maximum values of rupture area that are consistent with a particular dataset at the 95% confidence level. For the Kaneko and Shearer models with 20+ randomly distributed observations and ˜10% noise levels, we find that the maximum and minimum bounds on rupture area typically vary by a factor of two and that the minimum stress drop is often more tightly constrained than the maximum.

Deterministic Multiaxial Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancements for CARES/Creep Integrated Design Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jadaan, Osama M.

1998-01-01

High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of sum, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of Ns methodology and the CARES/Creep program.

Developing Stochastic Models as Inputs for High-Frequency Ground Motion Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savran, William Harvey

High-frequency ( 10 Hz) deterministic ground motion simulations are challenged by our understanding of the small-scale structure of the earth's crust and the rupture process during an earthquake. We will likely never obtain deterministic models that can accurately describe these processes down to the meter scale length required for broadband wave propagation. Instead, we can attempt to explain the behavior, in a statistical sense, by including stochastic models defined by correlations observed in the natural earth and through physics based simulations of the earthquake rupture process. Toward this goal, we develop stochastic models to address both of the primary considerations for deterministic ground motion simulations: namely, the description of the material properties in the crust, and broadband earthquake source descriptions. Using borehole sonic log data recorded in Los Angeles basin, we estimate the spatial correlation structure of the small-scale fluctuations in P-wave velocities by determining the best-fitting parameters of a von Karman correlation function. We find that Hurst exponents, nu, between 0.0-0.2, vertical correlation lengths, az, of 15-150m, an standard deviation, sigma of about 5% characterize the variability in the borehole data. Usin these parameters, we generated a stochastic model of velocity and density perturbations and combined with leading seismic velocity models to perform a validation exercise for the 2008, Chino Hills, CA using heterogeneous media. We find that models of velocity and density perturbations can have significant effects on the wavefield at frequencies as low as 0.3 Hz, with ensemble median values of various ground motion metrics varying up to +/-50%, at certain stations, compared to those computed solely from the CVM. Finally, we develop a kinematic rupture generator based on dynamic rupture simulations on geometrically complex faults. We analyze 100 dynamic rupture simulations on strike-slip faults ranging from Mw 6.4-7.2. We find that our dynamic simulations follow empirical scaling relationships for inter-plate strike-slip events, and provide source spectra comparable with an o -2 model. Our rupture generator reproduces GMPE medians and intra-event standard deviations spectral accelerations for an ensemble of 10 Hz fully-deterministic ground motion simulations, as compared to NGA West2 GMPE relationships up to 0.2 seconds.

Thermal state of the Explorer segment of the Cascadia subduction zone: Implications for seismic and tsunami hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Dawei; Wang, Kelin; Davis, Earl E.; Jiang, Yan; Insua, Tania L.; He, Jiangheng

2017-04-01

The Explorer segment of northernmost Cascadia is an end-member "warm" subduction zone with very young incoming plate and slow-convergence rate. Understanding the megathrust earthquake potential of this type of subduction zone is of both geodynamic and societal importance. Available geodetic observations indicate that the subduction megathrust of the Explorer segment is currently locked to some degree, but the downdip extent of the fault area that is potentially seismogenic is not known. Here we construct finite-element models to estimate the thermally allowed megathrust seismogenic zone, using available knowledge of regional plate kinematics, structural data, and heat flow observations as constraints. Despite ambiguities in plate interface geometry constrained by hypocenter locations of low-frequency earthquakes beneath Vancouver Island, the thermal models suggest a potential rupture zone of ˜60 km downdip width located fully offshore. Using dislocation modeling, we further illustrate that a rupture zone of this size, even with a conservative assumption of ˜100 km strike length, can cause significant tsunami-genic deformation. Future seismic and tsunami hazard assessment in northern Cascadia must take the Explorer segment into account.

Three dimensional modelling of earthquake rupture cycles on frictional faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Guy; May, Dave

2017-04-01

We are developing an efficient MPI-parallel numerical method to simulate earthquake sequences on preexisting faults embedding within a three dimensional viscoelastic half-space. We solve the velocity form of the elasto(visco)dynamic equations using a continuous Galerkin Finite Element Method on an unstructured pentahedral mesh, which thus permits local spatial refinement in the vicinity of the fault. Friction sliding is coupled to the viscoelastic solid via rate- and state-dependent friction laws using the split-node technique. Our coupled formulation employs a picard-type non-linear solver with a fully implicit, first order accurate time integrator that utilises an adaptive time step that efficiently evolves the system through multiple seismic cycles. The implementation leverages advanced parallel solvers, preconditioners and linear algebra from the Portable Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computing (PETSc) library. The model can treat heterogeneous frictional properties and stress states on the fault and surrounding solid as well as non-planar fault geometries. Preliminary tests show that the model successfully reproduces dynamic rupture on a vertical strike-slip fault in a half-space governed by rate-state friction with the ageing law.

M≥7 Earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the Sea of Marmara region, Turkey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murru, Maura; Akinci, Aybige; Falcone, Guiseppe; Pucci, Stefano; Console, Rodolfo; Parsons, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

We forecast time-independent and time-dependent earthquake ruptures in the Marmara region of Turkey for the next 30 years using a new fault-segmentation model. We also augment time-dependent Brownian Passage Time (BPT) probability with static Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) from interacting faults. We calculate Mw > 6.5 probability from 26 individual fault sources in the Marmara region. We also consider a multisegment rupture model that allows higher-magnitude ruptures over some segments of the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NNAF) beneath the Marmara Sea. A total of 10 different Mw=7.0 to Mw=8.0 multisegment ruptures are combined with the other regional faults at rates that balance the overall moment accumulation. We use Gaussian random distributions to treat parameter uncertainties (e.g., aperiodicity, maximum expected magnitude, slip rate, and consequently mean recurrence time) of the statistical distributions associated with each fault source. We then estimate uncertainties of the 30-year probability values for the next characteristic event obtained from three different models (Poisson, BPT, and BPT+ΔCFF) using a Monte Carlo procedure. The Gerede fault segment located at the eastern end of the Marmara region shows the highest 30-yr probability, with a Poisson value of 29%, and a time-dependent interaction probability of 48%. We find an aggregated 30-yr Poisson probability of M >7.3 earthquakes at Istanbul of 35%, which increases to 47% if time dependence and stress transfer are considered. We calculate a 2-fold probability gain (ratio time-dependent to time-independent) on the southern strands of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.

Physically-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Using Broad-Band Ground Motion Simulation: a Case Study for Prince Islands Fault, Marmara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mert, A.

2016-12-01

The main motivation of this study is the impending occurrence of a catastrophic earthquake along the Prince Island Fault (PIF) in Marmara Sea and the disaster risk around Marmara region, especially in İstanbul. This study provides the results of a physically-based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) methodology, using broad-band strong ground motion simulations, for sites within the Marmara region, Turkey, due to possible large earthquakes throughout the PIF segments in the Marmara Sea. The methodology is called physically-based because it depends on the physical processes of earthquake rupture and wave propagation to simulate earthquake ground motion time histories. We include the effects of all considerable magnitude earthquakes. To generate the high frequency (0.5-20 Hz) part of the broadband earthquake simulation, the real small magnitude earthquakes recorded by local seismic array are used as an Empirical Green's Functions (EGF). For the frequencies below 0.5 Hz the simulations are obtained using by Synthetic Green's Functions (SGF) which are synthetic seismograms calculated by an explicit 2D/3D elastic finite difference wave propagation routine. Using by a range of rupture scenarios for all considerable magnitude earthquakes throughout the PIF segments we provide a hazard calculation for frequencies 0.1-20 Hz. Physically based PSHA used here follows the same procedure of conventional PSHA except that conventional PSHA utilizes point sources or a series of point sources to represent earthquakes and this approach utilizes full rupture of earthquakes along faults. Further, conventional PSHA predicts ground-motion parameters using by empirical attenuation relationships, whereas this approach calculates synthetic seismograms for all magnitude earthquakes to obtain ground-motion parameters. PSHA results are produced for 2%, 10% and 50% hazards for all studied sites in Marmara Region.

Gender, smoking, body size, and aneurysm geometry influence the biomechanical rupture risk of abdominal aortic aneurysms as estimated by finite element analysis.

PubMed

Lindquist Liljeqvist, Moritz; Hultgren, Rebecka; Siika, Antti; Gasser, T Christian; Roy, Joy

2017-04-01

Finite element analysis (FEA) has been suggested to be superior to maximal diameter measurements in predicting rupture of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). Our objective was to investigate to what extent previously described rupture risk factors were associated with FEA-estimated rupture risk. One hundred forty-six patients with an asymptomatic AAA of a 40- to 60-mm diameter were retrospectively identified and consecutively included. The patients' computed tomography angiograms were analyzed by FEA without (neutral) and with (specific) input of patient-specific mean arterial pressure (MAP), gender, family history, and age. The maximal wall stress/wall strength ratio was described as a rupture risk equivalent diameter (RRED), which translated this ratio into an average aneurysm diameter of corresponding rupture risk. In multivariate linear regression, RRED neutral increased with female gender (3.7 mm; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-7.3) and correlated with patient height (0.27 mm/cm; 95% CI, 0.11-0.43) and body surface area (BSA, 16 mm/m 2 ; 95% CI, 8.3-24) and inversely with body mass index (BMI, -0.40 mm/kg m -2 ; 95% CI, -0.75 to -0.054) in a wall stress-dependent manner. Wall stress-adjusted RRED neutral was raised if the patient was currently smoking (1.1 mm; 95% CI, 0.21-1.9). Age, MAP, family history, and patient weight were unrelated to RRED neutral . In specific FEA, RRED specific increased with female gender, MAP, family history positive for AAA, height, and BSA, whereas it was inversely related to BMI. All results were independent of aneurysm diameter. Peak wall stress and RRED correlated with aneurysm diameter and lumen volume. Female gender, current smoking, increased patient height and BSA, and low BMI were found to increase the mechanical rupture risk of AAAs. Previously described rupture risk factors may in part be explained by patient characteristic-dependent variations in aneurysm biomechanics. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Depth varying rupture properties during the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Han; Simons, Mark; Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Fielding, Eric; Liang, Cunren; Owen, Susan; Moore, Angelyn; Riel, Bryan; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Samsonov, Sergey V.

2017-09-01

On April 25th 2015, the Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake ruptured a portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust underlying Kathmandu and surrounding regions. We develop kinematic slip models of the Gorkha earthquake using both a regularized multi-time-window (MTW) approach and an unsmoothed Bayesian formulation, constrained by static and high rate GPS observations, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) offset images, interferometric SAR (InSAR), and teleseismic body wave records. These models indicate that Kathmandu is located near the updip limit of fault slip and approximately 20 km south of the centroid of fault slip. Fault slip propagated unilaterally along-strike in an ESE direction for approximately 140 km with a 60 km cross-strike extent. The deeper portions of the fault are characterized by a larger ratio of high frequency (0.03-0.2 Hz) to low frequency slip than the shallower portions. From both the MTW and Bayesian results, we can resolve depth variations in slip characteristics, with higher slip roughness, higher rupture velocity, longer rise time and higher complexity of subfault source time functions in the deeper extents of the rupture. The depth varying nature of rupture characteristics suggests that the up-dip portions are characterized by relatively continuous rupture, while the down-dip portions may be better characterized by a cascaded rupture. The rupture behavior and the tectonic setting indicate that the earthquake may have ruptured both fully seismically locked and a deeper transitional portions of the collision interface, analogous to what has been seen in major subduction zone earthquakes.

Surface Rupture Effects on Earthquake Moment-Area Scaling Relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Yingdi; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Miyakoshi, Ken; Irikura, Kojiro

2017-09-01

Empirical earthquake scaling relations play a central role in fundamental studies of earthquake physics and in current practice of earthquake hazard assessment, and are being refined by advances in earthquake source analysis. A scaling relation between seismic moment ( M 0) and rupture area ( A) currently in use for ground motion prediction in Japan features a transition regime of the form M 0- A 2, between the well-recognized small (self-similar) and very large (W-model) earthquake regimes, which has counter-intuitive attributes and uncertain theoretical underpinnings. Here, we investigate the mechanical origin of this transition regime via earthquake cycle simulations, analytical dislocation models and numerical crack models on strike-slip faults. We find that, even if stress drop is assumed constant, the properties of the transition regime are controlled by surface rupture effects, comprising an effective rupture elongation along-dip due to a mirror effect and systematic changes of the shape factor relating slip to stress drop. Based on this physical insight, we propose a simplified formula to account for these effects in M 0- A scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes.

Source Process of the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake Derived from Near-fault Strong Motion Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoi, S.; Sekiguchi, H.; Morikawa, N.; Ozawa, T.; Kunugi, T.; Shirasaka, M.

2007-12-01

The 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake occurred on July 16th, 2007, 10:13 JST. We performed a multi- time window linear waveform inversion analysis (Hartzell and Heaton, 1983) to estimate the rupture process from the near fault strong motion data of 14 stations from K-NET, KiK-net, F-net, JMA, and Niigata prefecture. The fault plane for the mainshock has not been clearly determined yet from the aftershock distribution, so that we performed two waveform inversions for north-west dipping fault (Model A) and south-east dipping fault (Model B). Their strike, dip, and rake are set to those of the moment tensor solutions by F-net. Fault plane model of 30 km length by 24 km width is set to cover aftershock distribution within 24 hours after the mainshock. Theoretical Green's functions were calculated by the discrete wavenumber method (Bouchon, 1981) and the R/T matrix method (Kennett, 1983) with the different stratified medium for each station based on the velocity structure including the information form the reflection survey and borehole logging data. Convolution of moving dislocation was introduced to represent the rupture propagation in an each subfault (Sekiguchi et al., 2002). The observed acceleration records were integrated into velocity except of F-net velocity data, and bandpass filtered between 0.1 and 1.0 Hz. We solved least-squared equation to obtain slip amount of each time window on each subfault to minimize squared residual of the waveform fitting between observed and synthetic waveforms. Both models provide moment magnitudes of 6.7. Regarding Model A, we obtained large slip in the south-west deeper part of the rupture starting point, which is close to Kashiwazaki-city. The second or third velocity pulses of observed velocity waveforms seem to be composed of slip from the asperity. Regarding Model B, we obtained large slip in the southwest shallower part of the rupture starting point, which is also close to Kashiwazaki-city. In both models, we found small slip near the rupture starting point, and largest slip at about ten kilometer in the south-west of the rupture starting point with the maximum slip of 2.3 and 2.5 m for Models A and B, respectively. The difference of the residual between observed and synthetic waveforms for both models is not significant, therefore it is difficult to conclude which fault plane is appropriate to explain. The estimated large-slip regions in the inverted source models with the Models A and B are located near the cross point of the two fault plane models, which should have similar radiation pattern. This situation may be one of the reasons why judgment of the fault plane orientation is such difficult. We need careful examinations not only strong motion data but also geodetic data to further explore the fault orientation and the source process of this earthquake.

Frequency-dependent effects of rupture for the 2004 Parkfield mainshock, results from UPSAR

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, Jon B.

2014-01-01

The frequency-dependent effects of rupture propagation of the Parkfield, California earthquake (Sept. 28, 2004, M6) to the northwest along the San Andreas fault can be seen in acceleration records at UPSAR (USGS Parkfield Seismic Array) in at least two ways. First, we can see the effects of directivity in the acceleration traces at UPSAR, which is about 11.5 km from the epicenter. Directivity or the seismic equivalent of a Doppler shift has been documented in many cases by comparing short duration, high-amplitude pulses (P or S) in the forward direction with longer duration body waves in the backward direction. In this case we detect a change from a relatively large amplitude, coherent, high-frequency signal at the start of rupture to a low-amplitude, low-coherent, low-frequency signal at about the time the rupture front transfers from the forward azimuth to the back azimuth at about 34-36 s (time is UTC and are the seconds after day 272 and 17 hours and 15 minutes. S arrival is just after 30s) for rays leaving the fault and propagating to UPSAR. The frequency change is obvious in the band about 5 to 30 Hz, which is significantly above the corner frequency of the earthquake (about 0.11Hz). From kinematic source models, the duration of faulting is about 9.2 s and the change in frequency is during faulting as the rupture extends to the northwest. Understanding the systematic change in frequency and amplitude of seismic waves in relation to the propagation of the rupture front is important for predicting strong ground motion. Second, we can filter the acceleration records from the array to determine if the low frequency energy emerges from the same part of the fault as the high frequency signal (e.g. has the same back azimuth and apparent velocity at UPSAR) an important clue to the dynamics of rupture. Analysis of sources of strong motion (characterized by relatively high frequencies) compared to kinematic slip models (relatively low frequency) for the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake as well as Maule (Feb. 27, 2010) and Chi-Chi (Sept. 20, 1999) earthquakes show that high- and low-frequency sources do not have the same locations on the fault. In this paper we filter the accelerograms from UPSAR for the 2004 mainshock in various passbands and then re-compute the cross correlations to determine the vector slowness of the incoming waves. At Parkfield, it appears that for seismic waves with frequencies above 1 Hz there is no discernible frequency-dependent difference in source position (up to 8 Hz) based on estimates of back azimuth and apparent velocity. However at lower frequencies, sources appear to be from shallower depths and trail the high frequencies as the rupture proceeds down the fault. This result is greater than one standard deviation of an estimate of error, based on a new method of estimating error that is a measure of how broad the peak in correlation is and an estimate of the variance of the correlation values. These observations can be understood in terms of a rupture front that is more energetic and coherent near the front of rupture (radiating higher frequencies) and less coherent and less energetic (radiating in a lower frequency band) behind the initial rupture front. This result is a qualitative assessment of changes in azimuth and apparent velocity with frequency and time and does not include corrections to find the source location on the fault.

Similar microearthquakes observed in western Nagano, Japan, and implications for rupture mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Xin; Niu, Fenglin; Silver, Paul G.; Horiuchi, Shigeki; Takai, Kaori; Iio, Yoshihisa; Ito, Hisao

2007-04-01

We have applied a waveform cross correlation technique to study the similarity and the repeatability of more than 21,000 microearthquakes (0 < M < 4.5) in the aftershock zone of the 1984 western Nagano earthquake in central Japan. We find that the seismicity in this particular intraplate fault essentially consists of no repeating earthquakes that occurred on the same patch of the fault in a quasiperiodic manner in the study period between 1995 and 2001. On the other hand, we identify a total of 278 doublets and 62 multiplets (807 events) that occurred consecutively within seconds to days. On the basis of the relative arrival times of the P and S waves, we have obtained precise relative locations of these consecutive events with an error between several meters to a few tens of meters. There is a clear lower bound on the distances measured between these consecutive events and the lower bound appears to be proportional to the size of the first events. This feature is consistent with what Rubin and Gillard [2000] have observed near the San Juan Bautista section of the San Andreas Fault. Shear stress increases at the edge of an earthquake rupture, and the rupture edge becomes the most likely place where the second events are initiated. The observed minimum distance thus reflects the rupture size of the first events. The minimum distance corresponds to the rupture size calculated from a circular fault model with a stress drop of 10 MPa. We found that using different time windows results in a slight difference in the delay time estimates and the subsequent projection locations, which may reflect the finite size nature of earthquake ruptures.

Based on records of Three Gorge Telemetric Seismic Network to analyze Vibration process of micro fracture of rock landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, Q.

2017-12-01

Used the finite element analysis software GeoStudio to establish vibration analysis model of Qianjiangping landslide, which locates at the Three Gorges Reservoir area. In QUAKE/W module, we chosen proper Dynamic elasticity modulus and Poisson's ratio of soil layer and rock stratum. When loading, we selected the waveform data record of Three Gorge Telemetric Seismic Network as input ground motion, which includes five rupture events recorded of Lujiashan seismic station. In dynamic simulating, we mainly focused on sliding process when the earthquake date record was applied. The simulation result shows that Qianjiangping landslide wasn't not only affected by its own static force, but also experienced the dynamic process of micro fracture-creep-slip rupture-creep-slip.it provides a new approach for the early warning feasibility of rock landslide in future research.

Source process of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mj7.3) inferred from kinematic inversion of strong-motion records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Kunikazu; Miyakoshi, Ken; Somei, Kazuhiro; Irikura, Kojiro

2017-05-01

In this study, we estimated source process of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake from strong-motion data by using the multiple-time window linear kinematic waveform inversion method to discuss generation of strong motions and to explain crustal deformation pattern with a seismic source inversion model. A four-segment fault model was assumed based on the aftershock distribution, active fault traces, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data. Three western segments were set to be northwest-dipping planes, and the most eastern segment under the Aso caldera was examined to be a southeast-dipping plane. The velocity structure models used in this study were estimated by using waveform modeling of moderate earthquakes that occurred in the source region. We applied a two-step approach of the inversions of 20 strong-motion datasets observed by K-NET and KiK-net by using band-pass-filtered strong-motion data at 0.05-0.5 Hz and then at 0.05-1.0 Hz. The rupture area of the fault plane was determined by applying the criterion of Somerville et al. (Seismol Res Lett 70:59-80, 1999) to the inverted slip distribution. From the first-step inversion, the fault length was trimmed from 52 to 44 km, whereas the fault width was kept at 18 km. The trimmed rupture area was not changed in the second-step inversion. The source model obtained from the two-step approach indicated 4.7 × 1019 Nm of the total moment release and 1.8 m average slip of the entire fault with a rupture area of 792 km2. Large slip areas were estimated in the seismogenic zone and in the shallow part corresponding to the surface rupture that occurred during the Mj7.3 mainshock. The areas of the high peak moment rate correlated roughly with those of large slip; however, the moment rate functions near the Earth surface have low peak, bell shape, and long duration. These subfaults with long-duration moment release are expected to cause weak short-period ground motions. We confirmed that the southeast dipping of the most eastern segment is more plausible rather than northwest-dipping from the observed subsidence around the central cones of the Aso volcano.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

The 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence: Source Complexity Inferred from Rupture Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scognamiglio, L.; Tinti, E.; Casarotti, E.; Pucci, S.; Villani, F.; Cocco, M.; Magnoni, F.; Michelini, A.

2017-12-01

The Apennines have been struck by several seismic sequences in recent years, showing evidence of the activation of multiple segments of normal fault systems in a variable and, relatively short, time span, as in the case of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake (three shocks in 40 s), the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (four main shocks in 18 days) and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake having three segments activated within a few weeks. The 2016-2017 central Apennines seismic sequence begin on August 24th with a MW 6.0 earthquake, which strike the region between Amatrice and Accumoli causing 299 fatalities. This earthquake ruptures a nearly 20 km long normal fault and shows a quite heterogeneous slip distribution. On October 26th, another main shock (MW 5.9) occurs near Visso extending the activated seismogenic area toward the NW. It is a double event rupturing contiguous patches on the fault segment of the normal fault system. Four days after the second main shock, on October 30th, a third earthquake (MW 6.5) occurs near Norcia, roughly midway between Accumoli and Visso. In this work we have inverted strong motion waveforms and GPS data to retrieve the source model of the MW 6.5 event with the aim of interpreting the rupture process in the framework of this complex sequence of moderate magnitude earthquakes. We noted that some preliminary attempts to model the slip distribution of the October 30th main shock using a single fault plane oriented along the Apennines did not provide convincing fits to the observed waveforms. In addition, the deformation pattern inferred from satellite observations suggested the activation of a multi-fault structure, that is coherent to the complexity and the extension of the geological surface deformation. We investigated the role of multi-fault ruptures and we found that this event revealed an extraordinary complexity of the rupture geometry and evolution: the coseismic rupture propagated almost simultaneously on a normal fault and on a blind fault, possibly inherited from compressional tectonics. These earthquakes raise serious concerns on our understanding of fault segmentation and seismicity evolution during sequences of normal faulting earthquakes. Finally, the retrieved rupture history has important implications on seismic hazard assessment and on the maximum expected magnitude in a given tectonic area.

Cost Comparison of B-1B Non-Mission-Capable Drivers Using Finite Source Queueing with Spares

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-06

COMPARISON OF B-1B NON-MISSION-CAPABLE DRIVERS USING FINITE SOURCE QUEUEING WITH SPARES GRADUATE RESEARCH PAPER Presented to the Faculty...step into the lineup making large-number approximations unusable. Instead, a finite source queueing model including spares is incorporated...were reported as flying time accrued since last occurrence. Service time was given in both start-stop format and MX man-hours utilized. Service time was

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Are Physics-Based Simulators Ready for Prime Time? Comparisons of RSQSim with UCERF3 and Observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milner, K. R.; Shaw, B. E.; Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.

2017-12-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is typically performed by combining an earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) with a set of empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). ERFs have typically relied on observed fault slip rates and scaling relationships to estimate the rate of large earthquakes on pre-defined fault segments, either ignoring or relying on expert opinion to set the rates of multi-fault or multi-segment ruptures. Version 3 of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) is a significant step forward, replacing expert opinion and fault segmentation with an inversion approach that matches observations better than prior models while incorporating multi-fault ruptures. UCERF3 is a statistical model, however, and doesn't incorporate the physics of earthquake nucleation, rupture propagation, and stress transfer. We examine the feasibility of replacing UCERF3, or components therein, with physics-based rupture simulators such as the Rate-State Earthquake Simulator (RSQSim), developed by Dieterich & Richards-Dinger (2010). RSQSim simulations on the UCERF3 fault system produce catalogs of seismicity that match long term rates on major faults, and produce remarkable agreement with UCERF3 when carried through to PSHA calculations. Averaged over a representative set of sites, the RSQSim-UCERF3 hazard-curve differences are comparable to the small differences between UCERF3 and its predecessor, UCERF2. The hazard-curve agreement between the empirical and physics-based models provides substantial support for the PSHA methodology. RSQSim catalogs include many complex multi-fault ruptures, which we compare with the UCERF3 rupture-plausibility metrics as well as recent observations. Complications in generating physically plausible kinematic descriptions of multi-fault ruptures have thus far prevented us from using UCERF3 in the CyberShake physics-based PSHA platform, which replaces GMPEs with deterministic ground motion simulations. RSQSim produces full slip/time histories that can be directly implemented as sources in CyberShake, without relying on the conditional hypocenter and slip distributions needed for the UCERF models. We also compare RSQSim with time-dependent PSHA calculations based on multi-fault renewal models.

Dynamic stress changes during earthquake rupture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Day, S.M.; Yu, G.; Wald, D.J.

1998-01-01

We assess two competing dynamic interpretations that have been proposed for the short slip durations characteristic of kinematic earthquake models derived by inversion of earthquake waveform and geodetic data. The first interpretation would require a fault constitutive relationship in which rapid dynamic restrengthening of the fault surface occurs after passage of the rupture front, a hypothesized mechanical behavior that has been referred to as "self-healing." The second interpretation would require sufficient spatial heterogeneity of stress drop to permit rapid equilibration of elastic stresses with the residual dynamic friction level, a condition we refer to as "geometrical constraint." These interpretations imply contrasting predictions for the time dependence of the fault-plane shear stresses. We compare these predictions with dynamic shear stress changes for the 1992 Landers (M 7.3), 1994 Northridge (M 6.7), and 1995 Kobe (M 6.9) earthquakes. Stress changes are computed from kinematic slip models of these earthquakes, using a finite-difference method. For each event, static stress drop is highly variable spatially, with high stress-drop patches embedded in a background of low, and largely negative, stress drop. The time histories of stress change show predominantly monotonic stress change after passage of the rupture front, settling to a residual level, without significant evidence for dynamic restrengthening. The stress change at the rupture front is usually gradual rather than abrupt, probably reflecting the limited resolution inherent in the underlying kinematic inversions. On the basis of this analysis, as well as recent similar results obtained independently for the Kobe and Morgan Hill earthquakes, we conclude that, at the present time, the self-healing hypothesis is unnecessary to explain earthquake kinematics.

Effect of the transverse ligament rupture on the biomechanics of the cervical spine under a compressive loading.

PubMed

Mesfar, Wissal; Moglo, Kodjo

2013-10-01

In order to diagnosis a transverse ligament rupture in the cervical spine, clinicians normally measure the atlas-dens interval by using CT scan images. However, the impact of this tear on the head and neck complex biomechanics is not widely studied. The transverse ligament plays a very important role in stabilizing the joint and its alteration may have a substantial effect on the whole head and neck complex. A finite element model consisting of bony structures along with cartilage, intervertebral discs and all ligaments was developed based on CT and MRI images. The effect of head weights (compressive load) of 30 N to 57 N was investigated in the cases of intact and ruptured transverse ligament joints. The model was validated based on experimental studies investigating the response of the cervical spine under the extension-flexion moment. The predictions indicate a significant alteration of the kinematics and load distribution at the facet joints of the cervical spine with a transverse ligament tear. The vertebrae flexion, the contact force at the facets joints and the atlas-dens interval increase with the rupture of the transverse ligament and are dependent to the head weight. A transverse ligament tear increases the flexion angle of the head and the vertebrae as well as the atlas-dens interval. The atlas-dens interval reaches a critical value when the compressive loading exceeds 40 N. Supporting the head after an injury should be considered to avoid compression of the spinal cord and permanent neurologic damage. © 2013.

Are recent empirical directivity models sufficient in capturing near-fault directivity effect?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yen-Shin; Cotton, Fabrice; Pagani, Marco; Weatherill, Graeme; Reshi, Owais; Mai, Martin

2017-04-01

It has been widely observed that the ground motion variability in the near field can be significantly higher than that commonly reported in published GMPEs, and this has been suggested to be a consequence of directivity. To capture the spatial variation in ground motion amplitude and frequency caused by the near-fault directivity effect, several models for engineering applications have been developed using empirical or, more recently, the combination of empirical and simulation data. Many research works have indicated that the large velocity pulses mainly observed in the near-field are primarily related to slip heterogeneity (i.e., asperities), suggesting that the slip heterogeneity is a more dominant controlling factor than the rupture velocity or source rise time function. The first generation of broadband directivity models for application in ground motion prediction do not account for heterogeneity of slip and rupture speed. With the increased availability of strong motion recordings (e.g., NGA-West 2 database) in the near-fault region, the directivity models moved from broadband to narrowband models to include the magnitude dependence of the period of the rupture directivity pulses, wherein the pulses are believed to be closely related to the heterogeneity of slip distribution. After decades of directivity models development, does the latest generation of models - i.e. the one including narrowband directivity models - better capture the near-fault directivity effects, particularly in presence of strong slip heterogeneity? To address this question, a set of simulated motions for an earthquake rupture scenario, with various kinematic slip models and hypocenter locations, are used as a basis for a comparison with the directivity models proposed by the NGA-West 2 project for application with ground motion prediction equations incorporating a narrowband directivity model. The aim of this research is to gain better insights on the accuracy of narrowband directivity models under conditions commonly encountered in the real world. Our preliminary result shows that empirical models including directivity factors better predict physics based ground-motion and their spatial variability than classical empirical models. However, the results clearly indicate that it is still a challenge for the directivity models to capture the strong directivity effect if a high level of slip heterogeneity is involved during the source rupture process.

Effect of Sediments on Rupture Dynamics of Shallow Subduction Zone Earthquakes and Tsunami Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, S.

2011-12-01

Low-velocity fault zones have long been recognized for crustal earthquakes by using fault-zone trapped waves and geodetic observations on land. However, the most pronounced low-velocity fault zones are probably in the subduction zones where sediments on the seafloor are being continuously subducted. In this study I focus on shallow subduction zone earthquakes; these earthquakes pose a serious threat to human society in their ability in generating large tsunamis. Numerous observations indicate that these earthquakes have unusually long rupture durations, low rupture velocities, and/or small stress drops near the trench. However, the underlying physics is unclear. I will use dynamic rupture simulations with a finite-element method to investigate the dynamic stress evolution on faults induced by both sediments and free surface, and its relations with rupture velocity and slip. I will also explore the effect of off-fault yielding of sediments on the rupture characteristics and seafloor deformation. As shown in Ma and Beroza (2008), the more compliant hanging wall combined with free surface greatly increases the strength drop and slip near the trench. Sediments in the subduction zone likely have a significant role in the rupture dynamics of shallow subduction zone earthquakes and tsunami generation.

Creep Life of Ceramic Components Using a Finite-Element-Based Integrated Design Program (CARES/CREEP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, L. M.; Jadaan, O. M.; Gyekenyesi, J. P.

1998-01-01

The desirable properties of ceramics at high temperatures have generated interest in their use for structural application such as in advanced turbine engine systems. Design lives for such systems can exceed 10,000 hours. The long life requirement necessitates subjecting the components to relatively low stresses. The combination of high temperatures and low stresses typically places failure for monolithic ceramics in the creep regime. The objective of this paper is to present a design methodology for predicting the lifetimes of structural components subjected to creep rupture conditions. This methodology utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the time-varying creep strain distributions (stress relaxation). The creep life, of a component is discretized into short time steps, during which the stress and strain distributions are assumed constant. The damage is calculated for each time step based on a modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. Failure is assumed to occur when the normalized accumulated damage at any point in the component is greater than or equal to unity. The corresponding time will be the creep rupture life for that component. Examples are chosen to demonstrate the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/CREEP (CARES/CREEP) integrated design program, which is written for the ANSYS finite element package. Depending on the component size and loading conditions, it was found that in real structures one of two competing failure modes (creep or slow crack growth) will dominate. Applications to benchmark problems and engine components are included.

Creep Life of Ceramic Components Using a Finite-Element-Based Integrated Design Program (CARES/CREEP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, J. P.; Powers, L. M.; Jadaan, O. M.

1998-01-01

The desirable properties of ceramics at high temperatures have generated interest in their use for structural applications such as in advanced turbine systems. Design lives for such systems can exceed 10,000 hours. The long life requirement necessitates subjecting the components to relatively low stresses. The combination of high temperatures and low stresses typically places failure for monolithic ceramics in the creep regime. The objective of this paper is to present a design methodology for predicting the lifetimes of structural components subjected to creep rupture conditions. This methodology utilized commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the time-varying creep strain distributions (stress relaxation). The creep life of a component is discretized into short time steps, during which the stress and strain distributions are assumed constant. The damage is calculated for each time step based on a modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. Failure is assumed to occur when the normalized accumulated damage at any point in the component is greater than or equal to unity. The corresponding time will be the creep rupture life for that component. Examples are chosen to demonstrate the CARES/CREEP (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/CREEP) integrated design programs, which is written for the ANSYS finite element package. Depending on the component size and loading conditions, it was found that in real structures one of two competing failure modes (creep or slow crack growth) will dominate. Applications to benechmark problems and engine components are included.

Investigation of possibility of surface rupture derived from PFDHA and calculation of surface displacement based on dislocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.; Kitada, N.; Irikura, K.

2013-12-01

A probability of surface rupture is important to configure the seismic source, such as area sources or fault models, for a seismic hazard evaluation. In Japan, Takemura (1998) estimated the probability based on the historical earthquake data. Kagawa et al. (2004) evaluated the probability based on a numerical simulation of surface displacements. The estimated probability indicates a sigmoid curve and increases between Mj (the local magnitude defined and calculated by Japan Meteorological Agency) =6.5 and Mj=7.0. The probability of surface rupture is also used in a probabilistic fault displacement analysis (PFDHA). The probability is determined from the collected earthquake catalog, which were classified into two categories: with surface rupture or without surface rupture. The logistic regression is performed for the classified earthquake data. Youngs et al. (2003), Ross and Moss (2011) and Petersen et al. (2011) indicate the logistic curves of the probability of surface rupture by normal, reverse and strike-slip faults, respectively. Takao et al. (2013) shows the logistic curve derived from only Japanese earthquake data. The Japanese probability curve shows the sharply increasing in narrow magnitude range by comparison with other curves. In this study, we estimated the probability of surface rupture applying the logistic analysis to the surface displacement derived from a surface displacement calculation. A source fault was defined in according to the procedure of Kagawa et al. (2004), which determined a seismic moment from a magnitude and estimated the area size of the asperity and the amount of slip. Strike slip and reverse faults were considered as source faults. We applied Wang et al. (2003) for calculations. The surface displacements with defined source faults were calculated by varying the depth of the fault. A threshold value as 5cm of surface displacement was used to evaluate whether a surface rupture reach or do not reach to the surface. We carried out the logistic regression analysis to the calculated displacements, which were classified by the above threshold. The estimated probability curve indicated the similar trend to the result of Takao et al. (2013). The probability of revere faults is larger than that of strike slip faults. On the other hand, PFDHA results show different trends. The probability of reverse faults at higher magnitude is lower than that of strike slip and normal faults. Ross and Moss (2011) suggested that the sediment and/or rock over the fault compress and not reach the displacement to the surface enough. The numerical theory applied in this study cannot deal with a complex initial situation such as topography.

Contrasts between source parameters of M [>=] 5. 5 earthquakes in northern Baja California and southern California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doser, D.I.

1993-04-01

Source parameters determined from the body waveform modeling of large (M [>=] 5.5) historic earthquakes occurring between 1915 and 1956 along the San Jacinto and Imperial fault zones of southern California and the Cerro Prieto, Tres Hermanas and San Miguel fault zones of Baja California have been combined with information from post-1960's events to study regional variations in source parameters. The results suggest that large earthquakes along the relatively young San Miguel and Tres Hermanas fault zones have complex rupture histories, small source dimensions (< 25 km), high stress drops (60 bar average), and a high incidence of foreshock activity.more » This may be a reflection of the rough, highly segmented nature of the young faults. In contrast, Imperial-Cerro Prieto events of similar magnitude have low stress drops (16 bar average) and longer rupture lengths (42 km average), reflecting rupture along older, smoother fault planes. Events along the San Jacinto fault zone appear to lie in between these two groups. These results suggest a relationship between the structural and seismological properties of strike-slip faults that should be considered during seismic risk studies.« less

Seismogeodesy of the 2014 Mw6.1 Napa earthquake, California: Rapid response and modeling of fast rupture on a dipping strike-slip fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar, Diego; Geng, Jianghui; Crowell, Brendan W.; Haase, Jennifer S.; Bock, Yehuda; Hammond, William C.; Allen, Richard M.

2015-07-01

Real-time high-rate geodetic data have been shown to be useful for rapid earthquake response systems during medium to large events. The 2014 Mw6.1 Napa, California earthquake is important because it provides an opportunity to study an event at the lower threshold of what can be detected with GPS. We show the results of GPS-only earthquake source products such as peak ground displacement magnitude scaling, centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution, and static slip inversion. We also highlight the retrospective real-time combination of GPS and strong motion data to produce seismogeodetic waveforms that have higher precision and longer period information than GPS-only or seismic-only measurements of ground motion. We show their utility for rapid kinematic slip inversion and conclude that it would have been possible, with current real-time infrastructure, to determine the basic features of the earthquake source. We supplement the analysis with strong motion data collected close to the source to obtain an improved postevent image of the source process. The model reveals unilateral fast propagation of slip to the north of the hypocenter with a delayed onset of shallow slip. The source model suggests that the multiple strands of observed surface rupture are controlled by the shallow soft sediments of Napa Valley and do not necessarily represent the intersection of the main faulting surface and the free surface. We conclude that the main dislocation plane is westward dipping and should intersect the surface to the east, either where the easternmost strand of surface rupture is observed or at the location where the West Napa fault has been mapped in the past.

Dynamic Rupture and Energy Partition in Models of Earthquake Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Z.; Needleman, A.; Ben-Zion, Y.

2006-12-01

We study properties of dynamic rupture and the partition of energy between radiation and dissipative mechanisms using 2D finite element calculations. The goal is to improve the understanding of these processes on faults at different evolutionary stages associated with different levels of geometrical complexity and possible presence of contrasting elastic properties across the fault. The initial calculations employ homogeneous media and a planar internal interface governed by a general rate- and state-dependent friction law that accounts for the gradual response of shear stress to abrupt changes of normal stress. Ruptures are initiated by gradually increasing the shear traction in a limited nucleation zone near the origin. By changing the rate dependency of the friction law and the size of the nucleation zone, we obtain four rupture modes: (i) supershear crack-like rupture; (ii) subshear crack-like rupture; (iii) subshear single pulse; and (iv) supershear train of pulses. Increasing the initial shear stress produces a transition from a subshear crack to a supershear crack, while increasing the rate dependency of the friction produces self-healing and the transition from a crack-like to a pulse mode of rupture. Properties of the nucleation process can strongly affect the rupture mode. In the cases examined, the total release of strain energy (over the same propagation distance) decreases following the order: supershear crack, subshear crack, train of pulses and single pulse. The ratio of the radiated kinetic energy to the energy dissipated in friction is about 5% for the supershear crack case and about 2% for the other three cases. Future work will involve similar calculations accounting for the generation of plastic strain in the bulk, the material contrast across the fault, and the addition of cohesive surfaces in the bulk to allow for the generation of new surfaces. The study may provide fundamental information on rupture processes in geologically-relevant circumstances and improve the understanding of physical limits on extreme ground motion. The results may be used to check assumptions made in observational works and may help to guide new observational research.

Generation of deterministic tsunami hazard maps in the Bay of Cadiz, south-west Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Otero, L.; Olabarrieta, M.; González, M.; Carreño, E.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Medina, R.; Lima, V.

2009-04-01

The bay of Cádiz is a densely populated and industrialized area, and an important centre of tourism which multiplies its population in the summer months. This bay is situated in the Gulf of Cádiz, the south-west Atlantic margin of the Iberian Peninsula. From a tectonic point of view this area can be defined as a diffuse plate boundary, comprising the eastern edge of the Gloria and Tydeman transforms (where the deformation is mainly concentrated in these shear corridors), the Gorringe Bank, the Horseshoe Abyssal plain, the Portimao and Guadalquivir banks, and the western termination of the arcuated Gibraltar Arc. This deformation zone is the eastern edge of the Azores - Gibraltar seismic zone, being the present day boundary between the Eurasian and African plates. The motion between the plates is mainly convergent in the Gulf of Cádiz, but gradually changes to almost pure transcurrent along the Gloria Fault. The relative motion between the two plates is of the order of 4-5 mm/yr. In order to define the different tsunamigenic zones and to characterize its worst tsunamigenic source we have used seismic, structural and geological data. The numerical model used to simulate the wave propagation and coastal inundation is the C3 (Cantabria, COMCOT and Tsunami-Claw) model. C3 is a hybrid finite difference-finite volume method which balances between efficiency and accuracy. For offshore domain in deep waters the model applies an explicit finite difference scheme (FD), which is computationally fast and accurate in large grids. For near coast domains in coastal areas, it applies a finite volume scheme (VOF). It solves correctly the bore formation and the bore propagation. It is very effective solving the run-up and the run down. A set of five worst case tsunamigenic sources has been used with four different sea levels (minimum tide, most probable low tide, most probable high tide and maximum tide), in order to produce the following thematic maps with the C3 model: maximum free surface elevation, maximum water depth, maximum current speed, maximum Froude number and maximum impact forces (hydrostatic and dynamic forces). The fault rupture and sea bottom displacement has been computed by means of the Okada equations. As result, a set of more than 100 deterministic thematic maps have been created in a GIS environment incorporating geographical data and high resolution orthorectified satellite images. These thematic maps form an atlas of inundation maps that will be distributed to different government authorities and civil protection and emergency agencies. The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by the EU under the frame of the European Project TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk And Strategies For the European Region), 6th Framework Programme.

Impact of a Large San Andreas Fault Earthquake on Tall Buildings in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, S.; Ji, C.; Komatitsch, D.; Tromp, J.

2004-12-01

In 1857, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred on the San Andreas fault, starting at Parkfield and rupturing in a southeasterly direction for more than 300~km. Such a unilateral rupture produces significant directivity toward the San Fernando and Los Angeles basins. The strong shaking in the basins due to this earthquake would have had a significant long-period content (2--8~s). If such motions were to happen today, they could have a serious impact on tall buildings in Southern California. In order to study the effects of large San Andreas fault earthquakes on tall buildings in Southern California, we use the finite source of the magnitude 7.9 2001 Denali fault earthquake in Alaska and map it onto the San Andreas fault with the rupture originating at Parkfield and proceeding southward over a distance of 290~km. Using the SPECFEM3D spectral element seismic wave propagation code, we simulate a Denali-like earthquake on the San Andreas fault and compute ground motions at sites located on a grid with a 2.5--5.0~km spacing in the greater Southern California region. We subsequently analyze 3D structural models of an existing tall steel building designed in 1984 as well as one designed according to the current building code (Uniform Building Code, 1997) subjected to the computed ground motion. We use a sophisticated nonlinear building analysis program, FRAME3D, that has the ability to simulate damage in buildings due to three-component ground motion. We summarize the performance of these structural models on contour maps of carefully selected structural performance indices. This study could benefit the city in laying out emergency response strategies in the event of an earthquake on the San Andreas fault, in undertaking appropriate retrofit measures for tall buildings, and in formulating zoning regulations for new construction. In addition, the study would provide risk data associated with existing and new construction to insurance companies, real estate developers, and individual owners, so that they can make well-informed financial decisions.

Rapid finite-fault inversions in Southern California using Cybershake Green's functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Polet, J.

2017-12-01

We have developed a system for rapid finite fault inversion for intermediate and large Southern California earthquakes using local, regional and teleseismic seismic waveforms as well as geodetic data. For modeling the local seismic data, we use 3D Green's functions from the Cybershake project, which were made available to us courtesy of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). The use of 3D Green's functions allows us to extend the inversion to higher frequency waveform data and smaller magnitude earthquakes, in addition to achieving improved solutions in general. The ultimate aim of this work is to develop the ability to provide high quality finite fault models within a few hours after any damaging earthquake in Southern California, so that they may be used as input to various post-earthquake assessment tools such as ShakeMap, as well as by the scientific community and other interested parties. Additionally, a systematic determination of finite fault models has value as a resource for scientific studies on detailed earthquake processes, such as rupture dynamics and scaling relations. We are using an established least-squares finite fault inversion method that has been applied extensively both on large as well as smaller regional earthquakes, in conjunction with the 3D Green's functions, where available, as well as 1D Green's functions for areas for which the Cybershake library has not yet been developed. We are carrying out validation and calibration of this system using significant earthquakes that have occurred in the region over the last two decades, spanning a range of locations and magnitudes (5.4 and higher).

Dynamic analysis of an inflatable dam subjected to a flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowery, K.; Liapis, S.

A dynamic simulation of the response of an inflatable dam subjected to a flood is carried out to determine the survivability envelope of the dam where it can operate without rupture, or overflow. The free-surface flow problem is solved in two dimensions using a fully nonlinear mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian formulation. The dam is modeled as an elastic shell inflated with air and simply supported from two points. The finite element method is employed to determine the dynamic response of the structure using ABAQUS with a shell element. The problem is solved in the time domain which allows the prediction of a number of transient phenomena such as the generation of upstream advancing waves, the dynamic structural response and structural failure. Failure takes place when the dam either ruptures or overflows. Stresses in the dam material were monitored to determine when rupture occurs. An iterative study was performed to find the serviceability envelope of the dam in terms of the internal pressure and the flood Froude number for two flood depths. It was found that existing inflatable dams are quite effective in suppressing floods for a relatively wide range of flood velocities.

Strong ground motion prediction applying dynamic rupture simulations for Beppu-Haneyama Active Fault Zone, southwestern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimi, M.; Matsushima, S.; Ando, R.; Miyake, H.; Imanishi, K.; Hayashida, T.; Takenaka, H.; Suzuki, H.; Matsuyama, H.

2017-12-01

We conducted strong ground motion prediction for the active Beppu-Haneyama Fault zone (BHFZ), Kyushu island, southwestern Japan. Since the BHFZ runs through Oita and Beppy cities, strong ground motion as well as fault displacement may affect much to the cities.We constructed a 3-dimensional velocity structure of a sedimentary basin, Beppu bay basin, where the fault zone runs through and Oita and Beppu cities are located. Minimum shear wave velocity of the 3d model is 500 m/s. Additional 1-d structure is modeled for sites with softer sediment: holocene plain area. We observed, collected, and compiled data obtained from microtremor surveys, ground motion observations, boreholes etc. phase velocity and H/V ratio. Finer structure of the Oita Plain is modeled, as 250m-mesh model, with empirical relation among N-value, lithology, depth and Vs, using borehole data, then validated with the phase velocity data obtained by the dense microtremor array observation (Yoshimi et al., 2016).Synthetic ground motion has been calculated with a hybrid technique composed of a stochastic Green's function method (for HF wave), a 3D finite difference (LF wave) and 1D amplification calculation. Fault geometry has been determined based on reflection surveys and active fault map. The rake angles are calculated with a dynamic rupture simulation considering three fault segments under a stress filed estimated from source mechanism of earthquakes around the faults (Ando et al., JpGU-AGU2017). Fault parameters such as the average stress drop, a size of asperity etc. are determined based on an empirical relation proposed by Irikura and Miyake (2001). As a result, strong ground motion stronger than 100 cm/s is predicted in the hanging wall side of the Oita plain.This work is supported by the Comprehensive Research on the Beppu-Haneyama Fault Zone funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

Correlation of Coseismic Velocity and Static Volumetric Strain Changes Induced by the 2010 Mw6.3 Jiasian Earthquake under the Southern Taiwan Orogenic Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S. M.; Hung, S. H.

2015-12-01

Earthquake-induced temporal changes in seismic velocity of the earth's crust have been demonstrated to be monitored effectively by the time-lapse shifts of coda waves recently. Velocity drop during the coseismic rupture has been explicitly observed in proximity to the epicenters of large earthquakes with different styles of faulting. The origin of such sudden perturbation in crustal properties is closely related to the damage and/or volumetric strain change influenced by seismic slip distribution. In this study, we apply a coda wave interferometry method to investigate potential velocity change in both space and time related to the moderate-sized (Mw6.3) 2010 Jiasian earthquake, which nucleated deeply in the crust (~23 km), ruptured and terminated around the depth of 10 km along a previously unidentified blind thrust fault near the lithotectonic boundary of the southern Taiwan orogenic belt. To decipher the surface and crustal response to this relatively deep rupture, we first measure relative time-lapse changes of coda between different short-term time frames spanning one year covering the pre- and post-seismic stages by using the Moving Window Cross Spectral Method. Rather than determining temporal velocity variations based on a long-term reference stack, we conduct a Bayesian least-squares inversion to obtain the optimal estimates by minimizing the inconsistency between the relative time-lapse shifts of individual short-term stacks. The results show the statistically significant velocity reduction immediately after the mainshock, which is most pronounced at the pairs with the interstation paths traversing through the hanging-wall block of the ruptured fault. The sensitivity of surface wave coda arrivals mainly in the periods of 3-5 s to shear wave speed perturbation is confined within the depth of 10 km, where the crust mostly experienced extensional strain changes induced by the slip distribution from the finite-fault model. Compared with coseismic slip distribution from GPS data and finite-fault inversion, peak ground velocity, and static volumetric strain field following the earthquake, the velocity decrease observed in the hanging wall side of the shallow crust is most likely attributed to pervasive dilatational strain changes induced by the slip rupture on the underlying blind thrust.

Earthquake rupture at focal depth, part II: mechanics of the 2004 M2.2 earthquake along the Pretorius Fault, TauTona Mine, South Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heesakkers, V.; Murphy, S.; Lockner, D.A.; Reches, Z.

2011-01-01

We analyze here the rupture mechanics of the 2004, M2.2 earthquake based on our observations and measurements at focal depth (Part I). This event ruptured the Archean Pretorius fault that has been inactive for at least 2 Ga, and was reactivated due to mining operations down to a depth of 3.6 km depth. Thus, it was expected that the Pretorius fault zone will fail similarly to an intact rock body independently of its ancient healed structure. Our analysis reveals a few puzzling features of the M2.2 rupture-zone: (1) the earthquake ruptured four, non-parallel, cataclasite bearing segments of the ancient Pretorius fault-zone; (2) slip occurred almost exclusively along the cataclasite-host rock contacts of the slipping segments; (3) the local in-situ stress field is not favorable to slip along any of these four segments; and (4) the Archean cataclasite is pervasively sintered and cemented to become brittle and strong. To resolve these observations, we conducted rock mechanics experiments on the fault-rocks and host-rocks and found a strong mechanical contrast between the quartzitic cataclasite zones, with elastic-brittle rheology, and the host quartzites, with damage, elastic–plastic rheology. The finite-element modeling of a heterogeneous fault-zone with the measured mechanical contrast indicates that the slip is likely to reactivate the ancient cataclasite-bearing segments, as observed, due to the strong mechanical contrast between the cataclasite and the host quartzitic rock.

Pulse-like partial ruptures and high-frequency radiation at creeping-locked transition during megathrust earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Sylvain; Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Lapusta, Nadia; Jiang, Junle

2017-08-01

Megathrust earthquakes tend to be confined to fault areas locked in the interseismic period and often rupture them only partially. For example, during the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, a slip pulse propagating along strike unzipped the bottom edge of the locked portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The lower edge of the rupture produced dominant high-frequency (>1 Hz) radiation of seismic waves. We show that similar partial ruptures occur spontaneously in a simple dynamic model of earthquake sequences. The fault is governed by standard laboratory-based rate-and-state friction with the aging law and contains one homogenous velocity-weakening (VW) region embedded in a velocity-strengthening (VS) area. Our simulations incorporate inertial wave-mediated effects during seismic ruptures (they are thus fully dynamic) and account for all phases of the seismic cycle in a self-consistent way. Earthquakes nucleate at the edge of the VW area and partial ruptures tend to stay confined within this zone of higher prestress, producing pulse-like ruptures that propagate along strike. The amplitude of the high-frequency sources is enhanced in the zone of higher, heterogeneous stress at the edge of the VW area.

Pulse-Like Partial Ruptures and High-Frequency Radiation at Creeping-Locked Transition during Megathrust Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, S. G. R. M.; Avouac, J. P.; Lapusta, N.; Jiang, J.

2017-12-01

Megathrust earthquakes tend to be confined to fault areas locked in the interseismic period and often rupture them only partially. For example, during the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, a slip pulse propagating along strike unzipped the bottom edge of the locked portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The lower edge of the rupture produced dominant high-frequency (>1 Hz) radiation of seismic waves. We show that similar partial ruptures occur spontaneously in a simple dynamic model of earthquake sequences. The fault is governed by standard laboratory-based rate-and-state friction with the ageing law and contains one homogenous velocity-weakening (VW) region embedded in a velocity-strengthening (VS) area. Our simulations incorporate inertial wave-mediated effects during seismic ruptures (they are thus fully dynamic) and account for all phases of the seismic cycle in a self-consistent way. Earthquakes nucleate at the edge of the VW area and partial ruptures tend to stay confined within this zone of higher prestress, producing pulse-like ruptures that propagate along strike. The amplitude of the high-frequency sources is enhanced in the zone of higher, heterogeneous stress at the edge of the VW area.

Mechanical Interaction of an Expanding Coiled Stent with a Plaque-Containing Arterial Wall: A Finite Element Analysis.

PubMed

Welch, Tré R; Eberhart, Robert C; Banerjee, Subhash; Chuong, Cheng-Jen

2016-03-01

Wall injury is observed during stent expansion within atherosclerotic arteries, related in part to stimulation of the inflammatory process. Wall stress and strain induced by stent expansion can be closely examined by finite element analysis (FEA), thus shedding light on procedure-induced sources of inflammation. The purpose of this work was to use FEA to examine the interaction of a coiled polymer stent with a plaque-containing arterial wall during stent expansion. An asymmetric fibrotic plaque-containing arterial wall model was created from intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) images of a diseased artery. A 3D model for a coil stent at unexpanded state was generated in SolidWorks. They were imported into ANSYS for FEA of combined stent expansion and fibrotic plaque-distortion. We simulated the stent expansion in the plaqued lumen by increasing balloon pressure from 0 to 12 atm in 1 atm step. At increasing pressure, we examined how the expanding stent exerts forces on the fibrotic plaque and vascular wall components, and how the latter collectively resist and balance the expansive forces from the stent. Results show the expanding coiled stent creates high stresses within the plaque and the surrounding fibrotic capsule. Lower stresses were observed in adjacent medial and adventitial layers. High principal strains were observed in plaque and fibrotic capsule. The results suggest fibrotic capsule rupture might occur at localized regions. The FEA/IVUS method can be adapted for routine examination of the effects of the expansion of selected furled stents against IVUS-reconstructed diseased vessels, to improve stent deployment practices.

Earthquake Directivity, Orientation, and Stress Drop Within the Subducting Plate at the Hikurangi Margin, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abercrombie, Rachel E.; Poli, Piero; Bannister, Stephen

2017-12-01

We develop an approach to calculate earthquake source directivity and rupture velocity for small earthquakes, using the whole source time function rather than just an estimate of the duration. We apply the method to an aftershock sequence within the subducting plate beneath North Island, New Zealand, and investigate its resolution. We use closely located, highly correlated empirical Green's function (EGF) events to obtain source time functions (STFs) for this well-recorded sequence. We stack the STFs from multiple EGFs at each station, to improve the stability of the STFs. Eleven earthquakes (M 3.3-4.5) have sufficient azimuthal coverage, and both P and S STFs, to investigate directivity. The time axis of each STF in turn is stretched to find the maximum correlation between all pairs of stations. We then invert for the orientation and rupture velocity of both unilateral and bilateral line sources that best match the observations. We determine whether they are distinguishable and investigate the effects of limited frequency bandwidth. Rupture orientations are resolvable for eight earthquakes, seven of which are predominantly unilateral, and all are consistent with rupture on planes similar to the main shock fault plane. Purely unilateral rupture is rarely distinguishable from asymmetric bilateral rupture, despite a good station distribution. Synthetic testing shows that rupture velocity is the least well-resolved parameter; estimates decrease with loss of high-frequency energy, and measurements are best considered minimum values. We see no correlation between rupture velocity and stress drop, and spatial stress drop variation cannot be explained as an artifact of varying rupture velocity.

Within-Event and Between-Events Ground Motion Variability from Earthquake Rupture Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crempien, Jorge G. F.; Archuleta, Ralph J.

2017-09-01

Measurement of ground motion variability is essential to estimate seismic hazard. Over-estimation of variability can lead to extremely high annual hazard estimates of ground motion exceedance. We explore different parameters that affect the variability of ground motion such as the spatial correlations of kinematic rupture parameters on a finite fault and the corner frequency of the moment-rate spectra. To quantify the variability of ground motion, we simulate kinematic rupture scenarios on several vertical strike-slip faults and compute ground motion using the representation theorem. In particular, for the entire suite of rupture scenarios, we quantify the within-event and the between-events ground motion variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and response spectra at several periods, at 40 stations—all approximately at an equal distance of 20 and 50 km from the fault. Both within-event and between-events ground motion variability increase when the slip correlation length on the fault increases. The probability density functions of ground motion tend to truncate at a finite value when the correlation length of slip decreases on the fault, therefore, we do not observe any long-tail distribution of peak ground acceleration when performing several rupture simulations for small correlation lengths. Finally, for a correlation length of 6 km, the within-event and between-events PGA log-normal standard deviations are 0.58 and 0.19, respectively, values slightly smaller than those reported by Boore et al. (Earthq Spectra, 30(3):1057-1085, 2014). The between-events standard deviation is consistently smaller than the within-event for all correlations lengths, a feature that agrees with recent ground motion prediction equations.

A Kirchhoff Approach to Seismic Modeling and Prestack Depth Migration

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-05-01

continuation of sources and geophones by finite difference (S-G finite - difference migration ), are relatively slow and dip-limited. Compared to S-G... finite - difference migration , the Kirchhoff integral implements prestack migration relatively efficiently and has no dip limitation. Liu .Mlodeling and...for modeling and migration . In this paper, a finite - difference algorithm is used to calculate traveltimes and amplitudes. With the help of

Coincidental match of numerical simulation and physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierre, B.; Gudmundsson, J. S.

2010-08-01

Consequences of rapid pressure transients in pipelines range from increased fatigue to leakages and to complete ruptures of pipeline. Therefore, accurate predictions of rapid pressure transients in pipelines using numerical simulations are critical. State of the art modelling of pressure transient in general, and water hammer in particular include unsteady friction in addition to the steady frictional pressure drop, and numerical simulations rely on the method of characteristics. Comparison of rapid pressure transient calculations by the method of characteristics and a selected high resolution finite volume method highlights issues related to modelling of pressure waves and illustrates that matches between numerical simulations and physics are purely coincidental.

Demonstration of improved seismic source inversion method of tele-seismic body wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yagi, Y.; Okuwaki, R.

2017-12-01

Seismic rupture inversion of tele-seismic body wave has been widely applied to studies of large earthquakes. In general, tele-seismic body wave contains information of overall rupture process of large earthquake, while the tele-seismic body wave is inappropriate for analyzing a detailed rupture process of M6 7 class earthquake. Recently, the quality and quantity of tele-seismic data and the inversion method has been greatly improved. Improved data and method enable us to study a detailed rupture process of M6 7 class earthquake even if we use only tele-seismic body wave. In this study, we demonstrate the ability of the improved data and method through analyses of the 2016 Rieti, Italy earthquake (Mw 6.2) and the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan earthquake (Mw 7.0) that have been well investigated by using the InSAR data set and the field observations. We assumed the rupture occurring on a single fault plane model inferred from the moment tensor solutions and the aftershock distribution. We constructed spatiotemporal discretized slip-rate functions with patches arranged as closely as possible. We performed inversions using several fault models and found that the spatiotemporal location of large slip-rate area was robust. In the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan earthquake, the slip-rate distribution shows that the rupture propagated to southwest during the first 5 s. At 5 s after the origin time, the main rupture started to propagate toward northeast. First episode and second episode correspond to rupture propagation along the Hinagu fault and the Futagawa fault, respectively. In the 2016 Rieti, Italy earthquake, the slip-rate distribution shows that the rupture propagated to up-dip direction during the first 2 s, and then rupture propagated toward northwest. From both analyses, we propose that the spatiotemporal slip-rate distribution estimated by improved inversion method of tele-seismic body wave has enough information to study a detailed rupture process of M6 7 class earthquake.

Self-induced seismicity due to fluid circulation along faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo; Poisson, Blanche; Toussaint, Renaud; Rachez, Xavier; Schmittbuhl, Jean

2014-03-01

In this paper, we develop a system of equations describing fluid migration, fault rheology, fault thickness evolution and shear rupture during a seismic cycle, triggered either by tectonic loading or by fluid injection. Assuming that the phenomena predominantly take place on a single fault described as a finite permeable zone of variable width, we are able to project the equations within the volumetric fault core onto the 2-D fault interface. From the basis of this `fault lubrication approximation', we simulate the evolution of seismicity when fluid is injected at one point along the fault to model-induced seismicity during an injection test in a borehole that intercepts the fault. We perform several parametric studies to understand the basic behaviour of the system. Fluid transmissivity and fault rheology are key elements. The simulated seismicity generally tends to rapidly evolve after triggering, independently of the injection history and end when the stationary path of fluid flow is established at the outer boundary of the model. This self-induced seismicity takes place in the case where shear rupturing on a planar fault becomes dominant over the fluid migration process. On the contrary, if healing processes take place, so that the fluid mass is trapped along the fault, rupturing occurs continuously during the injection period. Seismicity and fluid migration are strongly influenced by the injection rate and the heterogeneity.

Stress accumulation in the Marmara Sea estimated through ground-motion simulations from dynamic rupture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo; Douglas, John; Ulrich, Thomas

2017-03-01

We compare ground motions simulated from dynamic rupture scenarios, for the seismic gap along the North Anatolian Fault under the Marmara Sea (Turkey), to estimates from empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Ground motions are simulated using a finite difference method and a 3-D model of the local crustal structure. They are analyzed at more than a thousand locations in terms of horizontal peak ground velocity. Characteristics of probable earthquake scenarios are strongly dependent on the hypothesized level of accumulated stress, in terms of a normalized stress parameter T. With respect to the GMPEs, it is found that simulations for many scenarios systematically overestimate the ground motions at all distances. Simulations for only some scenarios, corresponding to moderate stress accumulation, match the estimates from the GMPEs. The difference between the simulations and the GMPEs is used to quantify the relative probabilities of each scenario and, therefore, to revise the probability of the stress field. A magnitude Mw7+ operating at moderate prestress field (0.6 < T ≤ 0.7) is statistically more probable, as previously assumed in the logic tree of probabilistic assessment of rupture scenarios. This approach of revising the mechanical hypothesis by means of comparison to an empirical statistical model (e.g., a GMPE) is useful not only for practical seismic hazard assessments but also to understand crustal dynamics.

High-frequency source radiation during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Japan, inferred from KiK-net strong-motion seismograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumagai, Hiroyuki; Pulido, Nelson; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Aoi, Shin

2013-01-01

investigate source processes of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, we utilized a source location method using high-frequency (5-10 Hz) seismic amplitudes. In this method, we assumed far-field isotropic radiation of S waves, and conducted a spatial grid search to find the best fitting source locations along the subducted slab in each successive time window. Our application of the method to the Tohoku-Oki earthquake resulted in artifact source locations at shallow depths near the trench caused by limited station coverage and noise effects. We then assumed various source node distributions along the plate, and found that the observed seismograms were most reasonably explained when assuming deep source nodes. This result suggests that the high-frequency seismic waves were radiated at deeper depths during the earthquake, a feature which is consistent with results obtained from teleseismic back-projection and strong-motion source model studies. We identified three high-frequency subevents, and compared them with the moment-rate function estimated from low-frequency seismograms. Our comparison indicated that no significant moment release occurred during the first high-frequency subevent and the largest moment-release pulse occurred almost simultaneously with the second high-frequency subevent. We speculated that the initial slow rupture propagated bilaterally from the hypocenter toward the land and trench. The landward subshear rupture propagation consisted of three successive high-frequency subevents. The trenchward propagation ruptured the strong asperity and released the largest moment near the trench.

Rupture Complexities of Fluid Induced Microseismic Events at the Basel EGS Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folesky, Jonas; Kummerow, Jörn; Shapiro, Serge A.; Häring, Markus; Asanuma, Hiroshi

2016-04-01

Microseismic data sets of excellent quality, such as the seismicity recorded in the Basel-1 enhanced geothermal system, Switzerland, in 2006-2007, provide the opportunity to analyse induced seismic events in great detail. It is important to understand in how far seismological insights on e.g. source and rupture processes are scale dependent and how they can be transferred to fluid induced micro-seismicity. We applied the empirical Green's function (EGF) method in order to reconstruct the relative source time functions of 195 suitable microseismic events from the Basel-1 reservoir. We found 93 solutions with a clear and consistent directivity pattern. The remaining events display either no measurable directivity, are unfavourably oriented or exhibit non consistent or complex relative source time functions. In this work we focus on selected events of M ˜ 1 which show possible rupture complexities. It is demonstrated that the EGF method allows to resolve complex rupture behaviour even if it is not directly identifiable in the seismograms. We find clear evidence of rupture directivity and multi-phase rupturing in the analysed relative source time functions. The time delays between consecutive subevents lies in the order of 10ms. Amplitudes of the relative source time functions of the subevents do not always show the same azimuthal dependence, indicating dissimilarity in the rupture directivity of the subevents. Our observations support the assumption that heterogeneity on fault surfaces persists down to small scale (few tens of meters).

GPS-derived Coseismic deformations of the 2016 Aktao Ms6.7 earthquake and source modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Zhao, B.; Xiaoqiang, W.; Daiqing, L.; Yushan, A.

2017-12-01

On 25th November 2016, a Ms6.7 earthquake occurred on Aktao, a county of Xinjiang, China. This earthquake was the largest earthquake occurred in the northeastern margin of the Pamir Plateau in the last 30 years. By GPS observation, we get the coseismic displacement of this earthquake. The maximum displacement site is located in the Muji Basin, 15km from south of the causative fault. The maximum deformation is down to 0.12m, and 0.10m for coseismic displacement, our results indicate that the earthquake has the characteristics of dextral strike-slip and normal-fault rupture. Based on the GPS results, we inverse the rupture distribution of the earthquake. The source model is consisted of two approximate independent zones with a depth of less than 20km, the maximum displacement of one zone is 0.6m, the other is 0.4m. The total seismic moment is Mw6.6.1 which is calculated by the geodetic inversion. The source model of GPS-derived is basically consistent with that of seismic waveform inversion, and is consistent with the surface rupture distribution obtained from field investigation. According to our inversion calculation, the recurrence period of strong earthquakes similar to this earthquake should be 30 60 years, and the seismic risk of the eastern segment of Muji fault is worthy of attention. This research is financially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41374030)

Slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.1) along the Kuril Trench deduced from tsunami waveform inversion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirata, K.; Geist, E.; Satake, K.; Tanioka, Y.; Yamaki, S.

2003-01-01

We inverted 13 tsunami waveforms recorded in Japan to estimate the slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.1), which occurred southeast off Hokkaido along the southern Kuril subduction zone. The previously estimated source area determined from tsunami travel times [Hatori, 1973] did not coincide with the observed aftershock distribution. Our results show that a large amount of slip occurred in the aftershock area east of Hatori's tsunami source area, suggesting that a portion of the interplate thrust near the trench was ruptured by the main shock. We also found more than 5 m of slip along the deeper part of the seismogenic interface, just below the central part of Hatori's tsunami source area. This region, which also has the largest stress drop during the main shock, had few aftershocks. Large tsunami heights on the eastern Hokkaido coast are better explained by the heterogeneous slip model than previous uniform-slip fault models. The total seismic moment is estimated to be 1.87 ?? 1021 N m, giving a moment magnitude of Mw = 8.1. The revised tsunami source area is estimated to be 25.2 ?? 103 km2, ???3 times larger than the previous tsunami source area. Out of four large earthquakes with M ??? 7 that subsequently occurred in and around the rupture area of the 1952 event, three were at the edges of regions with relatively small amount of slip. We also found that a subducted seamount near the edge of the rupture area possibly impeded slip along the plate interface.

Current research in cavitating fluid films

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brewe, D. E. (Editor); Ball, J. H. (Editor); Khonsari, M. M. (Editor)

1990-01-01

A review of the current research of cavitation in fluid films is presented. Phenomena and experimental observations include gaseous cavitation, vapor cavitation, and gas entrainment. Cavitation in flooded, starved, and dynamically loaded journal bearings, as well as squeeze films are reviewed. Observations of cavitation damage in bearings and the possibility of cavitation between parallel plates with microasperities were discussed. The transcavity fluid transport process, meniscus motion and geometry or form of the film during rupture, and reformation were summarized. Performance effects were related to heat transfer models in the cavitated region and hysteresis influence on rotor dynamics coefficients. A number of cavitation algorithms was presented together with solution procedures using the finite difference and finite element methods. Although Newtonian fluids were assumed in most of the discussions, the effect of non-Newtonian fluids on cavitation was also discussed.

Dynamic rupture modeling of the transition from thrust to strike-slip motion in the 2002 Denali fault earthquake, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Anderson, G.; Hudnut, K.W.

2004-01-01

We use three-dimensional dynamic (spontaneous) rupture models to investigate the nearly simultaneous ruptures of the Susitna Glacier thrust fault and the Denali strike-slip fault. With the 1957 Mw 8.3 Gobi-Altay, Mongolia, earthquake as the only other well-documented case of significant, nearly simultaneous rupture of both thrust and strike-slip faults, this feature of the 2002 Denali fault earthquake provides a unique opportunity to investigate the mechanisms responsible for development of these large, complex events. We find that the geometry of the faults and the orientation of the regional stress field caused slip on the Susitna Glacier fault to load the Denali fault. Several different stress orientations with oblique right-lateral motion on the Susitna Glacier fault replicate the triggering of rupture on the Denali fault about 10 sec after the rupture nucleates on the Susitna Glacier fault. However, generating slip directions compatible with measured surface offsets and kinematic source inversions requires perturbing the stress orientation from that determined with focal mechanisms of regional events. Adjusting the vertical component of the principal stress tensor for the regional stress field so that it is more consistent with a mixture of strike-slip and reverse faulting significantly improves the fit of the slip-rake angles to the data. Rotating the maximum horizontal compressive stress direction westward appears to improve the fit even further.

Seismological constraints on the down-dip shape of normal faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, Kirsty; Copley, Alex

2018-04-01

We present a seismological technique for determining the down-dip shape of seismogenic normal faults. Synthetic models of non-planar source geometries reveal the important signals in teleseismic P and SH waveforms that are diagnostic of down-dip curvature. In particular, along-strike SH waveforms are the most sensitive to variations in source geometry, and have significantly more complex and larger-amplitude waveforms for curved source geometries than planar ones. We present the results of our forward-modelling technique for 13 earthquakes. Most continental normal-faulting earthquakes that rupture through the full seismogenic layer are planar and have dips of 30°-60°. There is evidence for faults with a listric shape from some of the earthquakes occurring in two regions; Tibet and East Africa. These ruptures occurred on antithetic faults, or minor faults within the hanging walls of the rifts affected, which may suggest a reason for the down-dip curvature. For these earthquakes, the change in dip across the seismogenic part of the fault plane is ≤30°.

Mechanical Damage of Tympanic Membrane in Relation to Impulse Pressure Waveform – A Study in Chinchillas

PubMed Central

Gan, Rong Z.; Nakmali, Don; Ji, Xiao D.; Leckness, Kegan; Yokell, Zachary

2016-01-01

Mechanical damage to middle ear components in blast exposure directly causes hearing loss, and the rupture of the tympanic membrane (TM) is the most frequent injury of the ear. However, it is unclear how the severity of injury graded by different patterns of TM rupture is related to the overpressure waveforms induced by blast waves. In the present study, the relationship between the TM rupture threshold and the impulse or overpressure waveform has been investigated in chinchillas. Two groups of animals were exposed to blast overpressure simulated in our lab under two conditions: open field and shielded with a stainless steel cup covering the animal head. Auditory brainstem response (ABR) and wideband tympanometry were measured before and after exposure to check the hearing threshold and middle ear function. Results show that waveforms recorded in the shielded case were different from those in the open field and the TM rupture threshold in the shielded case was lower than that in the open field (3.4±0.7 vs. 9.1±1.7 psi or 181±1.6 vs. 190±1.9 dB SPL). The impulse pressure energy spectra analysis of waveforms demonstrates that the shielded waveforms include greater energy at high frequencies than that of the open field waves. Finally, a 3D finite element (FE) model of the chinchilla ear was used to compute the distributions of stress in the TM and the TM displacement with impulse pressure waves. The FE model-derived change of stress in response to pressure loading in the shielded case was substantially faster than that in the open case. This finding provides the biomechanical mechanisms for blast induced TM damage in relation to overpressure waveforms. The TM rupture threshold difference between the open and shielded cases suggests that an acoustic role of helmets may exist, intensifying ear injury during blast exposure. PMID:26807796

South American Tsunamis in Lyttelton Harbor, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrero, Jose C.; Goring, Derek G.

2015-03-01

At 2347 UTC on April 1, 2014 (12:47 pm April 2, 2014 NZDT) an earthquake with a moment magnitude of 8.2 occurred offshore of Iquique in northern Chile. The temblor generated a tsunami that was observed locally and recorded on tide gauges and deep ocean tsunameters close to the source region. While real time modeling based on inverted tsunameter data and finite fault solutions of the earthquake rupture suggested that a damaging far-field tsunami was not expected (and later confirmed), this event nevertheless reminded us of the threat posed to New Zealand by tsunami generated along the west coast of South America and from the Peru/Chile border region in particular. In this paper we quantitatively assess the tsunami hazard at Lyttelton Harbor from South American tsunamis through a review of historical accounts, numerical modeling of past events and analysis of water level records. A sensitivity study for tsunamis generated along the length of the South American Subduction Zone is used to illustrate which section of the subduction zone would generate the strongest response at Lyttelton while deterministic scenario modeling of significant historical South American tsunamis (i.e. 1868, 1877 and 1960) provide a quantitative estimate of the expected effects from possible future great earthquakes along the coast of South America.

Estimation of Static Coulomb Stress Change and Strong Motion Simulation for Jiuzhaigou 7.0 Earthquake Base on SENTINEL-1 Insar Data Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, W. H.; Luo, Y.; Jiao, Q. S.

2018-04-01

On August 8, 2017, an earthquake of M 7.0 occurred at Jiuzhaigou. Based on the Sentinel-1 satellite InSAR data, we obtained coseismic deformation field and inverted the source slip model. Results show that this event is dominated by strike slip, and the total released seismic moment is 8.06 × 1018 Nm, equivalent to an earthquake of Mw 6.57. We calculated static stress changes along strike and dip direction, and the static stress analysis show that the average stress drop are at low level, which may be responsible for the low level of ground motion during Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The coseismic Coulomb stress changes are calculated base on the inverted slip model, which revealed that 82.59 % of aftershocks are located in the Coulomb stress increasing area, 78.42 % of total aftershocks may be triggered by the mainshock aftershock, indicating that the mainshock has a significant triggering effect on the subsequent aftershocks. Based on stochastic finite fault model, we simulated regional peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and the intensity, and results could capture basic features associated with the ground motion patterns. Moreover, the simulated results reflect the obvious rupture directivity effect.

Long-Period Ground Motion due to Near-Shear Earthquake Ruptures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koketsu, K.; Yokota, Y.; Hikima, K.

2010-12-01

Long-period ground motion has become an increasingly important consideration because of the recent rapid increase in the number of large-scale structures, such as high-rise buildings and large oil storage tanks. Large subduction-zone earthquakes and moderate to large crustal earthquakes can generate far-source long-period ground motions in distant sedimentary basins with the help of path effects. Near-fault long-period ground motions are generated, for the most part, by the source effects of forward rupture directivity (Koketsu and Miyake, 2008). This rupture directivity effect is the maximum in the direction of fault rupture when a rupture velocity is nearly equal to shear wave velocity around a source fault (Dunham and Archuleta, 2005). The near-shear rupture was found to occur during the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake at the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau (Koketsu et al., 2010). The variance of waveform residuals in a joint inversion of teleseismic and strong motion data was the minimum when we adopted a rupture velocity of 2.8 km/s, which is close to the shear wave velocity of 2.6 km/s around the hypocenter. We also found near-shear rupture during the 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu earthquake (Yokota et al., 2010). The optimum rupture velocity for an inversion of teleseismic data is 3.5 km/s, which is almost equal to the shear wave velocity around the hypocenter. Since, in addition, supershear rupture was found during the 2001 Mw 7.8 Central Kunlun earthquake (Bouchon and Vallee, 2003), such fast earthquake rupture can be a characteristic of the eastern Tibetan plateau. Huge damage in Yingxiu and Beichuan from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and damage heavier than expected in the county seat of Yushu from the medium-sized Yushu earthquake can be attributed to the maximum rupture directivity effect in the rupture direction due to near-shear earthquake ruptures.

Mitral Valve Repair Using ePTFE Sutures for Ruptured Mitral Chordae Tendineae: A Computational Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Rim, Yonghoon; Laing, Susan T.; McPherson, David D.; Kim, Hyunggun

2013-01-01

Mitral valve repair using expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE) sutures is an established and preferred interventional method to resolve the complex pathophysiologic problems associated with chordal rupture. We developed a novel computational evaluation protocol to determine the effect of the artificial sutures on restoring mitral valve function following valve repair. A virtual mitral valve was created using three-dimensional echocardiographic data in a patient with ruptured mitral chordae tendineae. Virtual repairs were designed by adding artificial sutures between the papillary muscles and the posterior leaflet where the native chordae were ruptured. Dynamic finite element simulations were performed to evaluate pre- and post-repair mitral valve function. Abnormal posterior leaflet prolapse and mitral regurgitation was clearly demonstrated in the mitral valve with ruptured chordae. Following virtual repair to reconstruct ruptured chordae, the severity of the posterior leaflet prolapse decreased and stress concentration was markedly reduced both in the leaflet tissue and the intact native chordae. Complete leaflet coaptation was restored when four or six sutures were utilized. Computational simulations provided quantitative information of functional improvement following mitral valve repair. This novel simulation strategy may provide a powerful tool for evaluation and prediction of interventional treatment for ruptured mitral chordae tendineae. PMID:24072489

Simulation of broad-band strong ground motion for a hypothetical Mw 7.1 earthquake on the Enriquillo Fault in Haiti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douilly, Roby; Mavroeidis, George P.; Calais, Eric

2017-10-01

The devastating 2010 Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake demonstrated the need to improve mitigation and preparedness for future seismic events in the region. Previous studies have shown that the earthquake did not occur on the Enriquillo Fault, the main plate boundary fault running through the heavily populated Port-au-Prince region, but on the nearby and previously unknown transpressional Léogâne Fault. Slip on that fault has increased stresses on the segment of Enriquillo Fault to the east of Léogâne, which terminates in the ˜3-million-inhabitant capital city of Port-au-Prince. In this study, we investigate ground shaking in the vicinity of Port-au-Prince, if a hypothetical rupture similar to the 2010 Haiti earthquake occurred on that segment of the Enriquillo Fault. We use a finite element method and assumptions on regional tectonic stress to simulate the low-frequency ground motion components using dynamic rupture propagation for a 52-km-long segment. We consider eight scenarios by varying parameters such as hypocentre location, initial shear stress and fault dip. The high-frequency ground motion components are simulated using the specific barrier model in the context of the stochastic modeling approach. The broad-band ground motion synthetics are subsequently obtained by combining the low-frequency components from the dynamic rupture simulation with the high-frequency components from the stochastic simulation using matched filtering at a crossover frequency of 1 Hz. Results show that rupture on a vertical Enriquillo Fault generates larger horizontal permanent displacements in Léogâne and Port-au-Prince than rupture on a south-dipping Enriquillo Fault. The mean horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA), computed at several sites of interest throughout Port-au-Prince, has a value of ˜0.45 g, whereas the maximum horizontal PGA in Port-au-Prince is ˜0.60 g. Even though we only consider a limited number of rupture scenarios, our results suggest more intense ground shaking for the city of Port-au-Prince than during the already very damaging 2010 Haiti earthquake.

Numerical Analysis of the Bending Properties of Cathay Poplar Glulam

PubMed Central

Gao, Ying; Wu, Yuxuan; Zhu, Xudong; Zhu, Lei; Yu, Zhiming; Wu, Yong

2015-01-01

This paper presents the formulae and finite element analysis models for predicting the Modulus of Elastic (MOE) and Modulus of Rupture (MOR) of Cathay poplar finger-jointed glulam. The formula of the MOE predicts the MOE of Cathay poplar glulam glued with one-component polyurethane precisely. Three formulae are used to predict the MOR, and Equation (12) predicts the MOR of Cathay poplar glulam precisely. The finite element analysis simulation results of both the MOE and MOR are similar to the experimental results. The predicted results of the finite element analysis are shown to be more accurate than those of the formulae, because the finite element analysis considers the glue layers, but the formulae do not. Three types of typical failure modes due to bending were summarized. The bending properties of Cathay poplar glulam were compared to those of Douglas fir glulam. The results show that Cathay poplar glulam has a lower stiffness, but a marginally higher strength. One-component polyurethane adhesive is shown to be more effective than resorcinol formaldehyde resin adhesive for Cathay poplar glulam. This study shows that Cathay poplar has the potential to be a glulam material in China. PMID:28793619

Slip model and Synthetic Broad-band Strong Motions for the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel (Chile) Earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; de la Llera, J. C.

2017-12-01

The MW 8.3 earthquake that occurred on September 16th 2015 west of Illapel, Chile, ruptured a 200 km section of the plate boundary between 29º S and 33º S. SAR data acquired by the Sentinel 1A satellite was used to obtain the interferogram of the earthquake, and from it, the component of the displacement field of the surface in the line of sight of the satellite. Based on this interferogram, the corresponding coseismic slip distribution for the earthquake was determined based on different plausible finite fault geometries. The model that best fits the data gathered is one whose rupture surface is consistent with the Slab 1.0 model, with a constant strike angle of 4º and variable dip angle ranging from 2.7º near the trench to 24.3º down dip. Using this geometry the maximum slip obtained is 7.52 m and the corresponding seismic moment is 3.78·1021 equivalent to a moment magnitude Mw 8.3. Calculation of the Coulomb failure stress change induced by this slip distribution evidences a strong correlation between regions where stress is increased as consequence of the earthquake, and the occurrence of the most relevant aftershocks, providing a consistency check for the inversion procedure applied and its results.The finite fault model for the Illapel earthquake is used to test a hybrid methodology for generation of synthetic ground motions that combines a deterministic calculation of the low frequency content, with stochastic modelling of the high frequency signal. Strong ground motions are estimated at the location of seismic stations recording the Illapel earthquake. Such simulations include the effect of local soil conditions, which are modelled empirically based on H/V ratios obtained from a large database of historical seismic records. Comparison of observed and synthetic records based on the 5%-damped response spectra yield satisfactory results for locations where the site response function is more robustly estimated.

Mitral valve repair using ePTFE sutures for ruptured mitral chordae tendineae: a computational simulation study.

PubMed

Rim, Yonghoon; Laing, Susan T; McPherson, David D; Kim, Hyunggun

2014-01-01

Mitral valve (MV) repair using expanded polytetrafluoroethylene sutures is an established and preferred interventional method to resolve the complex pathophysiologic problems associated with chordal rupture. We developed a novel computational evaluation protocol to determine the effect of the artificial sutures on restoring MV function following valve repair. A virtual MV was created using three-dimensional echocardiographic data in a patient with ruptured mitral chordae tendineae (RMCT). Virtual repairs were designed by adding artificial sutures between the papillary muscles and the posterior leaflet where the native chordae were ruptured. Dynamic finite element simulations were performed to evaluate pre- and post-repair MV function. Abnormal posterior leaflet prolapse and mitral regurgitation was clearly demonstrated in the MV with ruptured chordae. Following virtual repair to reconstruct ruptured chordae, the severity of the posterior leaflet prolapse decreased and stress concentration was markedly reduced both in the leaflet tissue and the intact native chordae. Complete leaflet coaptation was restored when four or six sutures were utilized. Computational simulations provided quantitative information of functional improvement following MV repair. This novel simulation strategy may provide a powerful tool for evaluation and prediction of interventional treatment for RMCT.

Simulation of air-bag impact on an eye with transsclerally fixated posterior chamber intraocular lens using finite element analysis.

PubMed

Uchio, Eiichi; Kadonosono, Kazuaki; Matsuoka, Yasuhiro; Goto, Satoru

2004-02-01

To determine the physical and mechanical conditions of an impacting air bag that would rupture an eye with a transsclerally fixated posterior chamber intraocular lens (IOL). Numerical simulation study on a computer. Simulations in a model human eye were performed with a computer using the finite element analysis program PAM-CRASH (Nihon ESI). The air bag was set to impact the surface of an eye with a transsclerally fixated posterior chamber IOL at various velocities. The tensile force limit of a 10-1 polypropylene suture was assumed to be 0.16 N, which is specified in the U.S. Pharmacopeia XXII. At the lowest velocity of 20.0 m/s, 10-0 polypropylene sutures were not likely to break. Sutures fixating the IOL might break and a corneoscleral incision was likely to open after 0.3 second at the medium impacting velocity (30 m/s). Suture rupture was very likely at the highest velocity (40 m/s) since the tensile force on the sutures continuously exceeded the breaking force after the impact. In an eye with a transsclerally fixated posterior chamber IOL, severe ocular trauma can be caused by an air bag at high velocity. Small individuals such as elderly women are at greater risk for air-bag ocular injury. Further research on modifying air-bag design and deployment is important to minimize the risk for ocular injury.

Co-seismic deformation of the August 27, 2012 Mw 7.3 El Salvador and September 5, 2012 Mw 7.6 Costa Rica earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geirsson, H.; La Femina, P. C.; DeMets, C.; Mattioli, G. S.; Hernández, D.

2013-05-01

We investigate the co-seismic deformation of two significant earthquakes that occurred along the Middle America trench in 2012. The August 27 Mw 7.3 El Salvador and September 5 Mw 7.6 Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica earthquakes, were examined using a combination of episodic and continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) data. USGS finite fault models based on seismic data predict fundamentally different characteristics for the two ruptures. The El Salvador event occurred in a historical seismic gap and on the shallow segment of the Middle America Trench main thrust, rupturing a large area, but with a low magnitude of slip. A small tsunami was observed along the coast in Nicaragua and El Salvador, additionally indicating near-trench rupture. Conversely, the Nicoya, Costa Rica earthquake was predicted to have an order of magnitude higher slip on a spatially smaller patch deeper on the main thrust. We present results from episodic and continuous geodetic GPS measurements made in conjunction with the two earthquakes, including data from newly installed COCONet (Continuously Operating Caribbean GPS Observational Network) sites. Episodic GPS measurements made in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua following the earthquakes, allow us to estimate the co-seismic deformation field from both earthquakes. Because of the small magnitude of the El Salvador earthquake and its shallow rupture the observed co-seismic deformation is small (<2 cm). Conversely, the Costa Rica earthquake occurred directly beneath a seismic and geodetic network specifically designed to capture such events. The observed displacements exceeded 0.5 m and there is a significant post-seismic transient following the earthquake. We use our estimated co-seismic offsets for both earthquakes to model the magnitude and spatial variability of slip for these two events.

Seismic moment tensor inversion using 3D velocity model and its application to the 2013 Lushan earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lupei; Zhou, Xiaofeng

2016-10-01

Source inversion of small-magnitude events such as aftershocks or mine collapses requires use of relatively high frequency seismic waveforms which are strongly affected by small-scale heterogeneities in the crust. In this study, we developed a new inversion method called gCAP3D for determining general moment tensor of a seismic source using Green's functions of 3D models. It inherits the advantageous features of the ;Cut-and-Paste; (CAP) method to break a full seismogram into the Pnl and surface-wave segments and to allow time shift between observed and predicted waveforms. It uses grid search for 5 source parameters (relative strengths of the isotropic and compensated-linear-vector-dipole components and the strike, dip, and rake of the double-couple component) that minimize the waveform misfit. The scalar moment is estimated using the ratio of L2 norms of the data and synthetics. Focal depth can also be determined by repeating the inversion at different depths. We applied gCAP3D to the 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake and its aftershocks using a 3D crustal-upper mantle velocity model derived from ambient noise tomography in the region. We first relocated the events using the double-difference method. We then used the finite-differences method and reciprocity principle to calculate Green's functions of the 3D model for 20 permanent broadband seismic stations within 200 km from the source region. We obtained moment tensors of the mainshock and 74 aftershocks ranging from Mw 5.2 to 3.4. The results show that the Lushan earthquake is a reverse faulting at a depth of 13-15 km on a plane dipping 40-47° to N46° W. Most of the aftershocks occurred off the main rupture plane and have similar focal mechanisms to the mainshock's, except in the proximity of the mainshock where the aftershocks' focal mechanisms display some variations.

Origin of the pulse-like signature of shallow long-period volcano seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chouet, Bernard A.; Dawson, Phillip B.

2016-01-01

Short-duration, pulse-like long-period (LP) events are a characteristic type of seismicity accompanying eruptive activity at Mount Etna in Italy in 2004 and 2008 and at Turrialba Volcano in Costa Rica and Ubinas Volcano in Peru in 2009. We use the discrete wave number method to compute the free surface response in the near field of a rectangular tensile crack embedded in a homogeneous elastic half space and to gain insights into the origin of the LP pulses. Two source models are considered, including (1) a vertical fluid-driven crack and (2) a unilateral tensile rupture growing at a fixed sub-Rayleigh velocity with constant opening on a vertical crack. We apply cross correlation to the synthetics and data to demonstrate that a fluid-driven crack provides a natural explanation for these data with realistic source sizes and fluid properties. Our modeling points to shallow sources (<1 km depth), whose signatures are representative of the Rayleigh pulse sampled at epicentral distances >∼1 km. While a slow-rupture failure provides another potential model for these events, the synthetics and resulting fits to the data are not optimal in this model compared to a fluid-driven source. We infer that pulse-like LP signatures are parts of the continuum of responses produced by shallow fluid-driven sources in volcanoes.

Slip reactivation during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake: Dynamic rupture and ground motion simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvez, P.; Dalguer, L. A.

2013-12-01

The 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake generated such as vast geophysical data that allows studying with an unprecedented resolution the spatial-temporal evolution of the rupture process of a mega thrust event. Joint source inversion of teleseismic, near-source strong motion and coseismic geodetic data , e.g [Lee et. al, 2011], reveal an evidence of slip reactivation process at areas of very large slip. The slip of snapshots of this source model shows that after about 40 seconds the big patch above to the hypocenter experienced an additional push of the slip (reactivation) towards the trench. These two possible repeating slip exhibited by source inversions can create two waveform envelops well distinguished in the ground motion pattern. In fact seismograms of the KiK-Net Japanese network contained this pattern. For instance a seismic station around Miyagi (MYGH10) has two main wavefronts separated between them by 40 seconds. A possible physical mechanism to explain the slip reactivation could be a thermal pressurization process occurring in the fault zone. In fact, Kanamori & Heaton, (2000) proposed that for large earthquakes frictional melting and fluid pressurization can play a key role of the rupture dynamics of giant earthquakes. If fluid exists in a fault zone, an increase of temperature can rise up the pore pressure enough to significantly reduce the frictional strength. Therefore, during a large earthquake the areas of big slip persuading strong thermal pressurization may result in a second drop of the frictional strength after reaching a certain value of slip. Following this principle, we adopt for slip weakening friction law and prescribe a certain maximum slip after which the friction coefficient linearly drops down again. The implementation of this friction law has been done in the latest unstructured spectral element code SPECFEM3D, Peter et. al. (2012). The non-planar subduction interface has been taken into account and place on it a big asperity patch inside areas of big slip (>50m) close to the trench. Within the first 2km bellow the trench a negative stress drop has been imposed in order to represent the energy absorption zone that attenuates a high frequency radiation at the shallow part of the suduction zone. At down dip, where high frequency radiation burst has been detected from back projection techniques, e.g. [Meng et. al, 2011; Ishi , 2011], small asperities has been considered in our dynamic rupture model. Finally, a comparison of static geodetic free surface displacement and synthetics has been made to obtain our best model. We additionally compare seismograms with the aim to represent the main features of the strong ground motion recorded from this earthquake. Moreover, the spatial-temporal rupture evolution detected by back projection at down dip is in a good agreement with the rupture evolution of our dynamic model.

The 13 January 2001 El Salvador earthquake: A multidata analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ValléE, Martin; Bouchon, Michel; Schwartz, Susan Y.

2003-04-01

On 13 January 2001, a large normal faulting intermediate depth event (Mw = 7.7) occurred 40 km off the El Salvadorian coast (Central America). We analyze this earthquake using teleseismic, regional, and local data. We first build a kinematic source model by simultaneously inverting P and SH displacement waveforms and source time functions derived from surface waves using an empirical Green's function analysis. In an attempt to discriminate between the two nodal planes (30° trenchward dipping and 60° landward dipping), we perform identical inversions using both possible fault planes. After relocating the hypocentral depth at 54 km, we retrieve the kinematic features of the rupture using a combination of the Neighborhood algorithm of [1999] and the Simplex method allowing for variable rupture velocity and slip. We find updip rupture propagation yielding a centroid depth around 47 km for both assumed fault planes with a larger variance reduction obtained using the 60° landward dipping nodal plane. We test the two possible fault models using regional broadband data and near-field accelerograms provided by [2001]. Near-field data confirm that the steeper landward dipping nodal plane is preferred. Rupture propagated mostly updip and to the northwest, resulting in a main moment release zone of approximately 25 km × 50 km with an average slip of ˜3.5 m. The large slip occurs near the interplate interface at a location where the slab steepens dip significantly. The occurrence of this event is well-explained by bending of the subducting plate.

Probabilistic seismic hazard study based on active fault and finite element geodynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastelic, Vanja; Carafa, Michele M. C.; Visini, Francesco

2016-04-01

We present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) that is exclusively based on active faults and geodynamic finite element input models whereas seismic catalogues were used only in a posterior comparison. We applied the developed model in the External Dinarides, a slow deforming thrust-and-fold belt at the contact between Adria and Eurasia.. is the Our method consists of establishing s two earthquake rupture forecast models: (i) a geological active fault input (GEO) model and, (ii) a finite element (FEM) model. The GEO model is based on active fault database that provides information on fault location and its geometric and kinematic parameters together with estimations on its slip rate. By default in this model all deformation is set to be released along the active faults. The FEM model is based on a numerical geodynamic model developed for the region of study. In this model the deformation is, besides along the active faults, released also in the volumetric continuum elements. From both models we calculated their corresponding activity rates, its earthquake rates and their final expected peak ground accelerations. We investigated both the source model and the earthquake model uncertainties by varying the main active fault and earthquake rate calculation parameters through constructing corresponding branches of the seismic hazard logic tree. Hazard maps and UHS curves have been produced for horizontal ground motion on bedrock conditions VS 30 ≥ 800 m/s), thereby not considering local site amplification effects. The hazard was computed over a 0.2° spaced grid considering 648 branches of the logic tree and the mean value of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level, while the 5th and 95th percentiles were also computed to investigate the model limits. We conducted a sensitivity analysis to control which of the input parameters influence the final hazard results in which measure. The results of such comparison evidence the deformation model and with their internal variability together with the choice of the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are the most influencing parameter. Both of these parameters have significan affect on the hazard results. Thus having good knowledge of the existence of active faults and their geometric and activity characteristics is of key importance. We also show that PSHA models based exclusively on active faults and geodynamic inputs, which are thus not dependent on past earthquake occurrences, provide a valid method for seismic hazard calculation.

Towards three-dimensional continuum models of self-consistent along-strike megathrust segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pranger, Casper; van Dinther, Ylona; May, Dave; Le Pourhiet, Laetitia; Gerya, Taras

2016-04-01

At subduction megathrusts, propagation of large ruptures may be confined between the up-dip and down-dip limits of the seismogenic zone. This opens a primary role for lateral rupture dimensions to control the magnitude and severity of megathrust earthquakes. The goal of this study is to improve our understanding of the ways in which the inherent variability of the subduction interface may influence the degree of interseismic locking, and the propensity of a rupture to propagate over regions of variable slip potential. The global absence of a historic record sufficiently long to base risk assessment on, makes us rely on numerical modelling as a way to extend our understanding of the spatio-temporal occurrence of earthquakes. However, the complex interaction of the subduction stress environment, the variability of the subduction interface, and the structure and deformation of the crustal wedge has made it very difficult to construct comprehensive numerical models of megathrust segmentation. We develop and exploit the power of a plastic 3D continuum representation of the subduction megathrust, as well as off-megathrust faulting to model the long-term tectonic build-up of stresses, and their sudden seismic release. The sheer size of the 3D problem, and the time scales covering those of tectonics as well as seismology, force us to explore efficient and accurate physical and numerical techniques. We thus focused our efforts on developing a staggered grid finite difference code that makes use of the PETSc library for massively parallel computing. The code incorporates a newly developed automatic discretization algorithm, which enables it to handle a wide variety of equations with relative ease. The different physical and numerical ingredients - like attenuating visco-elasto-plastic materials, frictional weakening and inertially driven seismic release, and adaptive time marching schemes - most of which have been implemented and benchmarked individually - are now combined into one algorithm. We are working towards presenting the first benchmarked 3D dynamic rupture models as an important step towards seismic cycle modelling of megathrust segmentation in a three-dimensional subduction setting with slow tectonic loading, self consistent fault development, and spontaneous seismicity.

Insights into the Fault Geometry and Rupture History of the 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, M.; Ji, C.

2017-12-01

The November 14th 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake occurred along the east coast of the northern part of the South Island. The local tectonic setting is complicated. The central South Island is dominated by oblique continental convergence, whereas the southern part of this island experiences eastward subduction of the Australian plate. Available information (e.g., Hamling et al., 2017; Bradley et al., 2017) indicate that this earthquake involved multiple fault segments of the Marlborough fault system (MFS) as the rupture propagated northwards for more than 150 km. Additional slip might also occur on the subduction interface of the Pacific plate under the Australian plate, beneath the MFS. However, the exact number of involved fault segments as well as the temporal co-seismic rupture sequence has not been fully determined with geodetic and geological observations. Knowledge of the kinematics of complex fault interactions has important implications for our understanding of global seismic hazards, particularly to relatively unmodeled multisegment ruptures. Understanding the Kaikoura earthquake will provide insight into how one incorporates multi-fault ruptures in seismic-hazard models. We propose to apply a multiple double-couple inversion to determine the fault geometry and spatiotemporal rupture history using teleseismic and strong motion waveforms, before constraining the detailed slip history using both seismic and geodetic data. The Kaikoura earthquake will be approximated as the summation of multiple subevents—each represented as a double-couple point source, characterized by i) fault geometry (strike, dip and rake), ii) seismic moment, iii) centroid time, iv) half-duration and v) location (latitude, longitude and depth), a total of nine variables. We progressively increase the number of point sources until the additional source cannot produce significant improvement to the observations. Our preliminary results using only teleseismic data indicate that, broadly speaking, the sequence of fault planes dips towards the northwest and the motion of slip is largely to the northeast. Sequence and timing of the rupturing faults is still to be determined.

Effects of listricity on near field ground motions: the kinematic case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passone, Luca; Mai, P. Martin

2016-04-01

Listric faults are defined as curved faults in which the dip decreases with depth, resulting in a concave upwards shape. Previous works show that breaking the symmetry of faults affects rupture dynamics and near field ground motions (e.g. Oglesby et al., 1998; Nielsen, 1998; Oglesby et al., 2000b; O'Connell et al. 2007). In recent years listric faults have been associated with devastating events, such as the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake that caused almost 150 billion of damage, and the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi- Chi earthquake that caused 10 billion worth of damage, each of them responsible also for tens of thousands of injured and dead. We focus on quantifying near field ground motions as a function of initial dip, style (normal or reverse) and a listricity. To construct a listric profile for the simulations we use an exponential function (Wang et al., 2009) that approximates the dip angle for a certain depth as a function of the depth itself, the initial dip angle and a listricity factor. We then generate an ensemble of source models, with initial dip ranging from 10 to 90 degrees and a listricity factor from 5 to 20. Finally, heterogeneous slip distributions are created for a magnitude Mw 6.8 earthquake. Choosing different hypocenter locations and rupture velocities, we construct a range of kinematic source models that are resolved on both the listric and planar-fault geometry. We then compute the near-source seismic wavefield within a uniform isotropic medium using a generalized 3D finite-difference method. The listric and planar simulations are then compared, and their differences quantified. Initial results show a secondary directivity effect once the listricity factor exceeds 10 for the larger initial dip faults, thus inducing a change in the azimuthal angle with respect of the epicenter where peak ground motions are experienced. At the same time, overall PGV values are decreased, more so for geometries with higher listricity factors. With the knowledge acquired, a ground motion reduction factor can be applied to ground motion prediction equations when the fault is considered to be listric and hazard maps should re-adjusted to cater for the relocation of peak ground motions due to directivity effects.

Reconciling postseismic and interseismic surface deformation around strike-slip faults: Earthquake-cycle models with finite ruptures and viscous shear zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hearn, E. H.

2013-12-01

Geodetic surface velocity data show that after an energetic but brief phase of postseismic deformation, surface deformation around most major strike-slip faults tends to be localized and stationary, and can be modeled with a buried elastic dislocation creeping at or near the Holocene slip rate. Earthquake-cycle models incorporating an elastic layer over a Maxwell viscoelastic halfspace cannot explain this, even when the earliest postseismic deformation is ignored or modeled (e.g., as frictional afterslip). Models with heterogeneously distributed low-viscosity materials or power-law rheologies perform better, but to explain all phases of earthquake-cycle deformation, Burgers viscoelastic materials with extreme differences between their Maxwell and Kelvin element viscosities seem to be required. I present a suite of earthquake-cycle models to show that postseismic and interseismic deformation may be reconciled for a range of lithosphere architectures and rheologies if finite rupture length is taken into account. These models incorporate high-viscosity lithosphere optionally cut by a viscous shear zone, and a lower-viscosity mantle asthenosphere (all with a range of viscoelastic rheologies and parameters). Characteristic earthquakes with Mw = 7.0 - 7.9 are investigated, with interseismic intervals adjusted to maintain the same slip rate (10, 20 or 40 mm/yr). I find that a high-viscosity lower crust/uppermost mantle (or a high viscosity per unit width viscous shear zone at these depths) is required for localized and stationary interseismic deformation. For Mw = 7.9 characteristic earthquakes, the shear zone viscosity per unit width in the lower crust and uppermost mantle must exceed about 10^16 Pa s /m. For a layered viscoelastic model the lower crust and uppermost mantle effective viscosity must exceed about 10^20 Pa s. The range of admissible shear zone and lower lithosphere rheologies broadens considerably for faults producing more frequent but smaller characteristic earthquakes. Thus, minimum lithosphere or shear zone effective viscosities inferred from interseismic GPS data and infinite-fault earthquake-cycle models may be too high. The finite-fault models show that relaxation of viscoelastic material in the mid crust (most likely along a viscous shear zone) may be consistent with near- to intermediate-field postseismic deformation typical of recent Mw = 7.4 to 7.9 earthquakes. This deformation is compatible with more localized and time-invariant deformation during most of the interseismic interval if (1) shear zone viscosity per unit width increases with depth or (2) the shear zone material has a Burgers viscoelastic rheology.

Brittle to ductile transition in a model of sheared granular materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, X.; Elbanna, A. E.

2016-12-01

Understanding the fundamental mechanisms of deformation and failure in sheared fault gouge is critical for the development of physics-based earthquake rupture simulations that are becoming an essential ingredient in next generation hazard and risk models. To that end, we use the shear transformation zone (STZ) theory, a non-equilibrium statistical thermodynamics framework to describe viscoplastic deformation and localization in gouge materials as a first step towards developing multiscale models for earthquake source processes that are informed by high-resolution fault zone physics. The primary ingredient of the STZ theory is that inelastic deformation occurs at rare and local non-interacting soft zones known as the shear transformation zones. The larger the number of these STZs the more disordered (the more loose) the layer is. We will describe an implementation of this theory in a 2D/3D finite element framework, accounting for finite deformation, under both axial and shear loading and for dry and saturated conditions. We examine conditions under which a localized shear band may form and show that the initial value of disorder (or the initial porosity) plays an important role. In particular, our simulations suggest that if the material is more compact initially, the behavior is more brittle and the plastic deformation localizes with generating large strength drop. On the other hand, an initially loose material will show a more ductile response and the plastic deformations will be distributed more broadly. We will further show that incorporation of pore fluids alters the localization pattern and changes the stress slip response due to coupling between gouge volume changes (compaction and dilation) and pore pressure build up. We validate the model predictions by comparing them to available experimental observations on strain localization and fault gouge strength evolution. Finally, we discuss the implications of our model for gouge friction and dynamic weakening.

Finite-strain large-deflection elastic-viscoplastic finite-element transient response analysis of structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodal, J. J. A.; Witmer, E. A.

1979-01-01

A method of analysis for thin structures that incorporates finite strain, elastic-plastic, strain hardening, time dependent material behavior implemented with respect to a fixed configuration and is consistently valid for finite strains and finite rotations is developed. The theory is formulated systematically in a body fixed system of convected coordinates with materially embedded vectors that deform in common with continuum. Tensors are considered as linear vector functions and use is made of the dyadic representation. The kinematics of a deformable continuum is treated in detail, carefully defining precisely all quantities necessary for the analysis. The finite strain theory developed gives much better predictions and agreement with experiment than does the traditional small strain theory, and at practically no additional cost. This represents a very significant advance in the capability for the reliable prediction of nonlinear transient structural responses, including the reliable prediction of strains large enough to produce ductile metal rupture.

Analysis of the variability in ground-motion synthesis and inversion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spudich, Paul A.; Cirella, Antonella; Scognamiglio, Laura; Tinti, Elisa

2017-12-07

In almost all past inversions of large-earthquake ground motions for rupture behavior, the goal of the inversion is to find the “best fitting” rupture model that predicts ground motions which optimize some function of the difference between predicted and observed ground motions. This type of inversion was pioneered in the linear-inverse sense by Olson and Apsel (1982), who minimized the square of the difference between observed and simulated motions (“least squares”) while simultaneously minimizing the rupture-model norm (by setting the null-space component of the rupture model to zero), and has been extended in many ways, one of which is the use of nonlinear inversion schemes such as simulated annealing algorithms that optimize some other misfit function. For example, the simulated annealing algorithm of Piatanesi and others (2007) finds the rupture model that minimizes a “cost” function which combines a least-squares and a waveform-correlation measure of misfit.All such inversions that look for a unique “best” model have at least three problems. (1) They have removed the null-space component of the rupture model—that is, an infinite family of rupture models that all fit the data equally well have been narrowed down to a single model. Some property of interest in the rupture model might have been discarded in this winnowing process. (2) Smoothing constraints are commonly used to yield a unique “best” model, in which case spatially rough rupture models will have been discarded, even if they provide a good fit to the data. (3) No estimate of confidence in the resulting rupture models can be given because the effects of unknown errors in the Green’s functions (“theory errors”) have not been assessed. In inversion for rupture behavior, these theory errors are generally larger than the data errors caused by ground noise and instrumental limitations, and so overfitting of the data is probably ubiquitous for such inversions.Recently, attention has turned to the inclusion of theory errors in the inversion process. Yagi and Fukahata (2011) made an important contribution by presenting a method to estimate the uncertainties in predicted large-earthquake ground motions due to uncertainties in the Green’s functions. Here we derive their result and compare it with the results of other recent studies that look at theory errors in a Bayesian inversion context particularly those by Bodin and others (2012), Duputel and others (2012), Dettmer and others (2014), and Minson and others (2014).Notably, in all these studies, the estimates of theory error were obtained from theoretical considerations alone; none of the investigators actually measured Green’s function errors. Large earthquakes typically have aftershocks, which, if their rupture surfaces are physically small enough, can be considered point evaluations of the real Green’s functions of the Earth. Here we simulate smallaftershock ground motions with (erroneous) theoretical Green’s functions. Taking differences between aftershock ground motions and simulated motions to be the “theory error,” we derive a statistical model of the sources of discrepancies between the theoretical and real Green’s functions. We use this model with an extended frequency-domain version of the time-domain theory of Yagi and Fukahata (2011) to determine the expected variance 2 τ caused by Green’s function error in ground motions from a larger (nonpoint) earthquake that we seek to model.We also differ from the above-mentioned Bayesian inversions in our handling of the nonuniqueness problem of seismic inversion. We follow the philosophy of Segall and Du (1993), who, instead of looking for a best-fitting model, looked for slip models that answered specific questions about the earthquakes they studied. In their Bayesian inversions, they inductively derived a posterior probability-density function (PDF) for every model parameter. We instead seek to find two extremal rupture models whose ground motions fit the data within the error bounds given by 2 τ , as quantified by using a chi-squared test described below. So, we can ask questions such as, “What are the rupture models with the highest and lowest average rupture speed consistent with the theory errors?” Having found those models, we can then say with confidence that the true rupture speed is somewhere between those values. Although the Bayesian approach gives a complete solution to the inverse problem, it is computationally demanding: Minson and others (2014) needed 1010 forward kinematic simulations to derive their posterior probability distribution. In our approach, only about107 simulations are needed. Moreover, in practical application, only a small set of rupture models may be needed to answer the relevant questions—for example, determining the maximum likelihood solution (achievable through standard inversion techniques) and the two rupture models bounding some property of interest.The specific property that we wish to investigate is the correlation between various rupturemodel parameters, such as peak slip velocity and rupture velocity, in models of real earthquakes. In some simulations of ground motions for hypothetical large earthquakes, such as those by Aagaard and others (2010) and the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Simulation Platform (Graves and Pitarka, 2015), rupture speed is assumed to correlate locally with peak slip, although there is evidence that rupture speed should correlate better with peak slip speed, owing to its dependence on local stress drop. We may be able to determine ways to modify Piatanesi and others’s (2007) inversion’s “cost” function to find rupture models with either high or low degrees of correlation between pairs of rupture parameters. We propose a cost function designed to find these two extremal models.

Investigating Along-Strike Variations of Source Parameters for Relocated Thrust Earthquakes Along the Sumatra-Java Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Hariri, M.; Bilek, S. L.; Deshon, H. R.; Engdahl, E. R.

2009-12-01

Some earthquakes generate anomalously large tsunami waves relative to their surface wave magnitudes (Ms). This class of events, known as tsunami earthquakes, is characterized by having a long rupture duration and low radiated energy at long periods. These earthquakes are relatively rare. There have been only 9 documented cases, including 2 in the Java subduction zone (1994 Mw=7.8 and the 2006 Mw=7.7). Several models have been proposed to explain the unexpectedly large tsunami, such as displacement along high-angle splay faults, landslide-induced tsunami due to coseismic shaking, or large seismic slip within low rigidity sediments or weaker material along the shallowest part of the subduction zone. Slow slip has also been suggested along portions of the 2004 Mw=9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake zone. In this study we compute the source parameters of 90 relocated shallow thrust events (Mw 5.1-7.8) along the Sumatra-Java subduction zone including the two Java tsunami earthquakes. Events are relocated using a modification to the Engdahl, van der Hilst and Buland (EHB) earthquake relocation method that incorporates an automated frequency-dependent phase detector. This allows for the use of increased numbers of phase arrival times, especially depth phases, and improves hypocentral locations. Source time functions, rupture duration and depth estimates are determined using multi-station deconvolution of broadband teleseismic P and SH waves. We seek to correlate any along-strike variation in rupture characteristics with tectonic features and rupture characteristics of the previous slow earthquakes along this margin to gain a better understanding of the conditions resulting in slow ruptures. Preliminary results from the analysis of these events show that in addition to depth-dependent variations there are also along-strike variations in rupture duration. We find that along the Java segment, the longer duration event locates in a highly coupled region corresponding to the location of a proposed subducting seamount. This correlation is less clear along the southern Sumatran segment. One longer duration event is located within the high slip area of the Mw=8.4 2007 rupture, while another is located in the weakly coupled region of the 1935 Mw=7.7 rupture area.

Frequency-Dependent Rupture Processes for the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, H.

2012-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake is characterized by frequency-dependent rupture process [e.g., Ide et al., 2011; Wang and Mori, 2011; Yao et al., 2011]. For understanding rupture dynamics of this earthquake, it is extremely important to investigate wave-based source inversions for various frequency bands. The above frequency-dependent characteristics have been derived from teleseismic analyses. This study challenges to infer frequency-dependent rupture processes from strong motion waveforms of K-NET and KiK-net stations. The observations suggested three or more S-wave phases, and ground velocities at several near-source stations showed different arrivals of their long- and short-period components. We performed complex source spectral inversions with frequency-dependent phase weighting developed by Miyake et al. [2002]. The technique idealizes both the coherent and stochastic summation of waveforms using empirical Green's functions. Due to the limitation of signal-to-noise ratio of the empirical Green's functions, the analyzed frequency bands were set within 0.05-10 Hz. We assumed a fault plane with 480 km in length by 180 km in width with a single time window for rupture following Koketsu et al. [2011] and Asano and Iwata [2012]. The inversion revealed source ruptures expanding from the hypocenter, and generated sharp slip-velocity intensities at the down-dip edge. In addition to test the effects of empirical/hybrid Green's functions and with/without rupture front constraints on the inverted solutions, we will discuss distributions of slip-velocity intensity and a progression of wave generation with increasing frequency.

A Computational Approach for Automated Posturing of a Human Finite Element Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-01

Std. Z39.18 July 2016 Memorandum Report A Computational Approach for Automated Posturing of a Human Finite Element Model Justin McKee and Adam...protection by influencing the path that loading will be transferred into the body and is a major source of variability. The development of a finite element ...posture, human body, finite element , leg, spine 42 Adam Sokolow 410-306-2985Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU ii Approved for public release

Coupling continuous damage and debris fragmentation for energy absorption prediction by cfrp structures during crushing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinosa, Christine; Lachaud, Frédéric; Limido, Jérome; Lacome, Jean-Luc; Bisson, Antoine; Charlotte, Miguel

2015-05-01

Energy absorption during crushing is evaluated using a thermodynamic based continuum damage model inspired from the Matzenmiller-Lubliner-Taylors model. It was found that for crash-worthiness applications, it is necessary to couple the progressive ruin of the material to a representation of the matter openings and debris generation. Element kill technique (erosion) and/or cohesive elements are efficient but not predictive. A technique switching finite elements into discrete particles at rupture is used to create debris and accumulated mater during the crushing of the structure. Switching criteria are evaluated using the contribution of the different ruin modes in the damage evolution, energy absorption, and reaction force generation.

Deformation and rupture of the oceanic crust may control growth of Hawaiian volcanoes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Got, J.-L.; Monteiller, V.; Monteux, J.; Hassani, R.; Okubo, P.

2008-01-01

Hawaiian volcanoes are formed by the eruption of large quantities of basaltic magma related to hot-spot activity below the Pacific Plate. Despite the apparent simplicity of the parent process - emission of magma onto the oceanic crust - the resulting edifices display some topographic complexity. Certain features, such as rift zones and large flank slides, are common to all Hawaiian volcanoes, indicating similarities in their genesis; however, the underlying mechanism controlling this process remains unknown. Here we use seismological investigations and finite-element mechanical modelling to show that the load exerted by large Hawaiian volcanoes can be sufficient to rupture the oceanic crust. This intense deformation, combined with the accelerated subsidence of the oceanic crust and the weakness of the volcanic edifice/oceanic crust interface, may control the surface morphology of Hawaiian volcanoes, especially the existence of their giant flank instabilities. Further studies are needed to determine whether such processes occur in other active intraplate volcanoes. ??2008 Nature Publishing Group.

Earthquake mechanism and predictability shown by a laboratory fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, C.-Y.

1994-01-01

Slip events generated in a laboratory fault model consisting of a circulinear chain of eight spring-connected blocks of approximately equal weight elastically driven to slide on a frictional surface are studied. It is found that most of the input strain energy is released by a relatively few large events, which are approximately time predictable. A large event tends to roughen stress distribution along the fault, whereas the subsequent smaller events tend to smooth the stress distribution and prepare a condition of simultaneous criticality for the occurrence of the next large event. The frequency-size distribution resembles the Gutenberg-Richter relation for earthquakes, except for a falloff for the largest events due to the finite energy-storage capacity of the fault system. Slip distributions, in different events are commonly dissimilar. Stress drop, slip velocity, and rupture velocity all tend to increase with event size. Rupture-initiation locations are usually not close to the maximum-slip locations. ?? 1994 Birkha??user Verlag.

Deformation and rupture of the oceanic crust may control growth of Hawaiian volcanoes.

PubMed

Got, Jean-Luc; Monteiller, Vadim; Monteux, Julien; Hassani, Riad; Okubo, Paul

2008-01-24

Hawaiian volcanoes are formed by the eruption of large quantities of basaltic magma related to hot-spot activity below the Pacific Plate. Despite the apparent simplicity of the parent process--emission of magma onto the oceanic crust--the resulting edifices display some topographic complexity. Certain features, such as rift zones and large flank slides, are common to all Hawaiian volcanoes, indicating similarities in their genesis; however, the underlying mechanism controlling this process remains unknown. Here we use seismological investigations and finite-element mechanical modelling to show that the load exerted by large Hawaiian volcanoes can be sufficient to rupture the oceanic crust. This intense deformation, combined with the accelerated subsidence of the oceanic crust and the weakness of the volcanic edifice/oceanic crust interface, may control the surface morphology of Hawaiian volcanoes, especially the existence of their giant flank instabilities. Further studies are needed to determine whether such processes occur in other active intraplate volcanoes.

Source models of M-7 class earthquakes in the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake by near-field tsunami modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, T.; Hino, R.; Inazu, D.; Saito, T.; Iinuma, T.; Suzuki, S.; Ito, Y.; Ohta, Y.; Suzuki, K.

2012-12-01

We estimated source models of small amplitude tsunami associated with M-7 class earthquakes in the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake using near-field records of tsunami recorded by ocean bottom pressure gauges (OBPs). The largest (Mw=7.3) foreshock of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, occurred on 9 Mar., two days before the mainshock. Tsunami associated with the foreshock was clearly recorded by seven OBPs, as well as coseismic vertical deformation of the seafloor. Assuming a planer fault along the plate boundary as a source, the OBP records were inverted for slip distribution. As a result, the most of the coseismic slip was found to be concentrated in the area of about 40 x 40 km in size and located to the north-west of the epicenter, suggesting downdip rupture propagation. Seismic moment of our tsunami waveform inversion is 1.4 x 10^20 Nm, equivalent to Mw 7.3. On 2011 July 10th, an earthquake of Mw 7.0 occurred near the hypocenter of the mainshock. Its relatively deep focus and strike-slip focal mechanism indicate that this earthquake was an intraslab earthquake. The earthquake was associated with small amplitude tsunami. By using the OBP records, we estimated a model of the initial sea-surface height distribution. Our tsunami inversion showed that a pair of uplift/subsiding eyeballs was required to explain the observed tsunami waveform. The spatial pattern of the seafloor deformation is consistent with the oblique strike-slip solution obtained by the seismic data analyses. The location and strike of the hinge line separating the uplift and subsidence zones correspond well to the linear distribution of the aftershock determined by using local OBS data (Obana et al., 2012).

DYNAMIC PLANE-STRAIN SHEAR RUPTURE WITH A SLIP-WEAKENING FRICTION LAW CALCULATED BY A BOUNDARY INTEGRAL METHOD.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.

1985-01-01

A numerical boundary integral method, relating slip and traction on a plane in an elastic medium by convolution with a discretized Green function, can be linked to a slip-dependent friction law on the fault plane. Such a method is developed here in two-dimensional plane-strain geometry. Spontaneous plane-strain shear ruptures can make a transition from sub-Rayleigh to near-P propagation velocity. Results from the boundary integral method agree with earlier results from a finite difference method on the location of this transition in parameter space. The methods differ in their prediction of rupture velocity following the transition. The trailing edge of the cohesive zone propagates at the P-wave velocity after the transition in the boundary integral calculations. Refs.

Effects of sources on time-domain finite difference models.

PubMed

Botts, Jonathan; Savioja, Lauri

2014-07-01

Recent work on excitation mechanisms in acoustic finite difference models focuses primarily on physical interpretations of observed phenomena. This paper offers an alternative view by examining the properties of models from the perspectives of linear algebra and signal processing. Interpretation of a simulation as matrix exponentiation clarifies the separate roles of sources as boundaries and signals. Boundary conditions modify the matrix and thus its modal structure, and initial conditions or source signals shape the solution, but not the modal structure. Low-frequency artifacts are shown to follow from eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the matrix, and previously reported artifacts are predicted from eigenvalue estimates. The role of source signals is also briefly discussed.

The 2015 April 25 Gorkha Earthquake and its Aftershocks: Implications for lateral heterogeneity on the Main Himalayan Thrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, S.; Kumar, A.; Priestley, K. F.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8) occurred by thrust faulting on a ˜150 km long and ˜70 km wide, locked downdip segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), causing the Himalaya to slip SSW over the Indian Plate, and was followed by major-to-moderate aftershocks. Back projection of teleseismic P-wave and inversion of teleseismic body waves provide constraints on the geometry and kinematics of the mainshock rupture and source mechanism of aftershocks. The mainshock initiated ˜80 km west of Katmandu, close to the locking line on the MHT and propagated eastwards, along ˜117° azimuth, for a duration of ˜70 s, in multi-stage rupture. The mainshock has been modeled using four sub-events, propagating from west-to-east. The first sub-event (0-20 s) ruptured at a velocity of ˜3.5 km/s on a ˜6° N dipping flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion. The second sub-event (20-35 s) ruptured a ˜18° W dipping lateral ramp on the MHT in oblique thrust motion. The rupture velocity dropped from 3.5 km/s to 2.5 km/s, as a result of updip propagation of the rupture. The third sub-event (35-50 s) ruptured a ˜7° N dipping, eastward flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion and resulted in the largest amplitude arrivals at teleseismic distances. The fourth sub-event (50-70 s) occurred by left-lateral strike-slip motion on a steeply dipping transverse fault, at high angle to the MHT and arrested the eastward propagation of the mainshock rupture. Eastward stress build-up following the mainshock resulted in the largest aftershock (Mw 7.3), which occurred on the MHT, immediately east of the mainshock rupture. Source mechanism of moderate aftershocks reveal stress adjustment at the edges of the mainshock fault, flexural faulting on top of the downgoing Indian Plate and extensional faulting in the hanging wall of the MHT.

The 2015 April 25 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake and its aftershocks: implications for lateral heterogeneity on the Main Himalayan Thrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ajay; Singh, Shashwat K.; Mitra, S.; Priestley, K. F.; Dayal, Shankar

2017-02-01

The 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8) occurred by thrust faulting on a ˜150 km long and ˜70 km wide, locked downdip segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), causing the Himalaya to slip SSW over the Indian Plate, and was followed by major-to-moderate aftershocks. Back projection of teleseismic P-wave and inversion of teleseismic body waves provide constraints on the geometry and kinematics of the main-shock rupture and source mechanism of aftershocks. The main-shock initiated ˜80 km west of Katmandu, close to the locking line on the MHT and propagated eastwards along ˜117° azimuth for a duration of ˜70 s, with varying rupture velocity on a heterogeneous fault surface. The main-shock has been modelled using four subevents, propagating from west-to-east. The first subevent (0-20 s) ruptured at a velocity of ˜3.5 km s- 1 on a ˜6°N dipping flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion. The second subevent (20-35 s) ruptured a ˜18° W dipping lateral ramp on the MHT in oblique thrust motion. The rupture velocity dropped from 3.5 km s- 1 to 2.5 km s- 1, as a result of updip propagation of the rupture. The third subevent (35-50 s) ruptured a ˜7°N dipping, eastward flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion and resulted in the largest amplitude arrivals at teleseismic distances. The fourth subevent (50-70 s) occurred by left-lateral strike-slip motion on a steeply dipping transverse fault, at high angle to the MHT and arrested the eastward propagation of the main-shock rupture. Eastward stress build-up following the main-shock resulted in the largest aftershock (Mw 7.3), which occurred on the MHT, immediately east of the main-shock rupture. Source mechanisms of moderate aftershocks reveal stress adjustment at the edges of the main-shock fault, flexural faulting on top of the downgoing Indian Plate and extensional faulting in the hanging wall of the MHT.

Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

PubMed

Hayes, Gavin P; Herman, Matthew W; Barnhart, William D; Furlong, Kevin P; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S; Samsonov, Sergey

2014-08-21

The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ∼8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Gavin P.; Herman, Matthew W.; Barnhart, William D.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S.; Samsonov, Sergey

2014-01-01

The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ~8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March–April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

Electrowetting on dielectric: experimental and model study of oil conductivity on rupture voltage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Qing; Tang, Biao; Dong, Baoqin; Li, Hui; Zhou, Rui; Guo, Yuanyuan; Dou, Yingying; Deng, Yong; Groenewold, Jan; Henzen, Alexander Victor; Zhou, Guofu

2018-05-01

Electrowetting on dielectric devices uses a conducting (water) and insulating (oil) liquid phase in conjunction on a dielectric layer. In these devices, the wetting properties of the liquid phases can be manipulated by applying an electric field. The electric field can rupture the initially flat oil film and promotes further dewetting of the oil. Here, we investigate a problem in the operation of electrowetting on dielectric caused by a finite conductivity of the oil. In particular, we find that the voltage at which the oil film ruptures is sensitive to the application of relatively low DC voltages prior to switching. Here, we systematically investigate this dependence using controlled driving schemes. The mechanism behind these history effects point to charge transport processes in the dielectric and the oil, which can be modeled and characterized by a decay time. To quantify the effects the typical response timescales have been measured with a high-speed video camera. The results have been reproduced in simulations. In addition, a simplified yet accurate equivalent circuit model is developed to analyze larger data sets more conveniently. The experimental data support the hypothesis that each pixel can be characterized by a single decay time. We studied an ensemble of pixels and found that they showed a rather broad distribution of decay times with an average value of about 440 ms. This decay time can be interpreted as a discharge timescale of the oil, not to be confused with discharge of the entire system which is generally much faster (<1 ms). Through the equivalent circuit model, we also found that variations in the fluoropolymer (FP) conductivity cannot explain the distribution of decay times, while variations in oil conductivity can.

Is Directivity Still Effective in a PSHA Framework?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagnuolo, E.; Herrero, A.; Cultrera, G.

2008-12-01

Source rupture parameters, like directivity, modulate the energy release causing variations in the radiated signal amplitude. Thus they affect the empirical predictive equations and as a consequence the seismic hazard assessment. Classical probabilistic hazard evaluations, e.g. Cornell (1968), use very simple predictive equations only based on magnitude and distance which do not account for variables concerning the rupture process. However nowadays, a few predictive equations (e.g. Somerville 1997, Spudich and Chiou 2008) take into account for rupture directivity. Also few implementations have been made in a PSHA framework (e.g. Convertito et al. 2006, Rowshandel 2006). In practice, these new empirical predictive models incorporate quantitatively the rupture propagation effects through the introduction of variables like rake, azimuth, rupture velocity and laterality. The contribution of all these variables is summarized in corrective factors derived from measuring differences between the real data and the predicted ones Therefore, it's possible to keep the older computation, making use of a simple predictive model, and besides, to incorporate the directivity effect through the corrective factors. Any single supplementary variable meaning a new integral in the parametric space. However the difficulty consists of the constraints on parameter distribution functions. We present the preliminary result for ad hoc distributions (Gaussian, uniform distributions) in order to test the impact of incorporating directivity into PSHA models. We demonstrate that incorporating directivity in PSHA by means of the new predictive equations may lead to strong percentage variations in the hazard assessment.

EGF Search for Compound Source Time Functions in Microearthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ampuero, J.; Rubin, A. M.

2003-12-01

Numerical simulations of stopping ruptures on bimaterial interfaces seem to indicate a pronounced asymmetry in the time it takes to reach the peak Coulomb stress shortly beyond the rupture ends. For the rupture front moving in the direction of slip of the stiffer medium, the timescale is controlled by the arrival of stopping phases from the opposite side of the crack, but for the opposite rupture front this timescale is controlled by the much shorter-duration tensile stress pulse that moves in front of the crack tip as it slows down. This behavior may have implications for rupture complexity on bimaterial interfaces. In addition to observing an asymmetry in aftershock occurrence on the San Andreas fault, Rubin and Gillard (2000) noted that for all 5 of the compound earthquakes they observed in a cluster of 72 events, the second subevent occurred to the NW of the first (that is, near the rupture front moving in the direction of slip of the stiffer medium). They suggested that these 5``second events'' were simply examples of ``early aftershocks'' which also occur preferentially to the NW; however, the fact that these 5 earthquakes could not be recognized as compound at stations located to the SE indicates that the second event actually occurred on the timescale of the passage of the dynamic stress waves. Thus, observations of asymmetry in rupture complexity may form an independent dataset, complimentary to observations of aftershock asymmetry, for constraining models of rupture on bimaterial interfaces. Microseismicity recorded on dense seismological networks has proved interesting for earthquake physics because the high number of events allows one to gain statistical insight into the observed source properties. However, microearthquakes are usually so small that the range of methods that can be applied to their analysis is limited and of low resolution. To address the questions raised above we would like to characterize the source time functions (STF) of a large number of microearthquakes, in particular the statistics of compound events and the possible asymmetry of their spatial distribution. We will show results of the systematic application of empirical Green's function deconvolution methods to a large dataset from the Parkfield HRSN. On the methodological side the performance and robustness of various deconvolution schemes is tested. These range from trivially stabilized spectral division to projected Landweber and blind deconvolution. Use is also made of the redundance available in highly clustered seismicity with many similar seismograms. The observations will be interpreted in the light of recent numerical simulations of dynamic rupture on bimaterial interfaces (see abstract of Rubin and Ampuero).

Directivity models produced for the Next Generation Attenuation West 2 (NGA-West 2) project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spudich, Paul A.; Watson-Lamprey, Jennie; Somerville, Paul G.; Bayless, Jeff; Shahi, Shrey; Baker, Jack W.; Rowshandel, Badie; Chiou, Brian

2012-01-01

Five new directivity models are being developed for the NGA-West 2 project. All are based on the NGA-West 2 data base, which is considerably expanded from the original NGA-West data base, containing about 3,000 more records from earthquakes having finite-fault rupture models. All of the new directivity models have parameters based on fault dimension in km, not normalized fault dimension. This feature removes a peculiarity of previous models which made them inappropriate for modeling large magnitude events on long strike-slip faults. Two models are explicitly, and one is implicitly, 'narrowband' models, in which the effect of directivity does not monotonically increase with spectral period but instead peaks at a specific period that is a function of earthquake magnitude. These narrowband models' functional forms are capable of simulating directivity over a wider range of earthquake magnitude than previous models. The functional forms of the five models are presented.

Physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using broadband ground motion simulation: a case study for the Prince Islands Fault, Marmara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mert, Aydin; Fahjan, Yasin M.; Hutchings, Lawrence J.; Pınar, Ali

2016-08-01

The main motivation for this study was the impending occurrence of a catastrophic earthquake along the Prince Island Fault (PIF) in the Marmara Sea and the disaster risk around the Marmara region, especially in Istanbul. This study provides the results of a physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methodology, using broadband strong ground motion simulations, for sites within the Marmara region, Turkey, that may be vulnerable to possible large earthquakes throughout the PIF segments in the Marmara Sea. The methodology is called physically based because it depends on the physical processes of earthquake rupture and wave propagation to simulate earthquake ground motion time histories. We included the effects of all considerable-magnitude earthquakes. To generate the high-frequency (0.5-20 Hz) part of the broadband earthquake simulation, real, small-magnitude earthquakes recorded by a local seismic array were used as empirical Green's functions. For the frequencies below 0.5 Hz, the simulations were obtained by using synthetic Green's functions, which are synthetic seismograms calculated by an explicit 2D /3D elastic finite difference wave propagation routine. By using a range of rupture scenarios for all considerable-magnitude earthquakes throughout the PIF segments, we produced a hazard calculation for frequencies of 0.1-20 Hz. The physically based PSHA used here followed the same procedure as conventional PSHA, except that conventional PSHA utilizes point sources or a series of point sources to represent earthquakes, and this approach utilizes the full rupture of earthquakes along faults. Furthermore, conventional PSHA predicts ground motion parameters by using empirical attenuation relationships, whereas this approach calculates synthetic seismograms for all magnitudes of earthquakes to obtain ground motion parameters. PSHA results were produced for 2, 10, and 50 % hazards for all sites studied in the Marmara region.

Influence of intramuscular fiber orientation on the Achilles tendon curvature using three-dimensional finite element modeling of contracting skeletal muscle.

PubMed

Kinugasa, Ryuta; Yamamura, Naoto; Sinha, Shantanu; Takagi, Shu

2016-10-03

Tendon curvature plays a key role in mechanical gain (amplifying the joint excursion relative to fiber length change) during joint motion, but the mechanism remains unresolved. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model was used to investigate the influence of intramuscular fiber orientation upon the curvature pattern of the Achilles tendon during active muscular contraction. Two simulation models, with fiber pennation angles of θ = 25° and 47° were tested for the gastrocnemius and soleus muscles. A smaller pennation angle (25°) of the soleus muscle fibers was accompanied by a large change in curvature whereas a larger pennation angle (47°) of the soleus muscle was accompanied by small effects. These results suggest that the fiber pennation angle determines the curvature of the tendon, and the magnitude of the curvature varies along the length of the aponeurosis. Such FE modeling has the potential of determining changes in force output consequent to changes in intramuscular fiber orientation arising from resistance training or unloading, and provides mechanism for predicting the risk of Achilles tendon ruptures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Titov, Vasily V.; Arcas, Diego; Pollitz, Fred F.; Bilek, Susan L.

2007-01-01

Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which deep- ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. This proxy model performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end- member estimates for average slip and rupture length (Mw 9.0–9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (Mw 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release (∼9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the exponential time constant of slip is less than approximately 1 hr. Overall, there is significant variation in assessed runup heights caused by quantifiable uncertainty in both first-order source parameters (e.g., rupture length, slip-length scaling) and spatiotemporal complexity of earthquake rupture.

Detailed source process of the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peyrat, S.; Madariaga, R.; Campos, J.; Asch, G.; Favreau, P.; Bernard, P.; Vilotte, J.

2008-05-01

We investigated the detail rupture process of the Tocopilla earthquake (Mw 7.7) of the 14 November 2007 and of the main aftershocks that occurred in the southern part of the North Chile seismic gap using strong motion data. The earthquake happen in the middle of the permanent broad band and strong motion network IPOC newly installed by GFZ and IPGP, and of a digital strong-motion network operated by the University of Chile. The Tocopilla earthquake is the last large thrust subduction earthquake that occurred since the major Iquique 1877 earthquake which produced a destructive tsunami. The Arequipa (2001) and Antofagasta (1995) earthquakes already ruptured the northern and southern parts of the gap, and the intraplate intermediate depth Tarapaca earthquake (2005) may have changed the tectonic loading of this part of the Peru-Chile subduction zone. For large earthquakes, the depth of the seismic rupture is bounded by the depth of the seismogenic zone. What controls the horizontal extent of the rupture for large earthquakes is less clear. Factors that influence the extent of the rupture include fault geometry, variations of material properties and stress heterogeneities inherited from the previous ruptures history. For subduction zones where structures are not well known, what may have stopped the rupture is not obvious. One crucial problem raised by the Tocopilla earthquake is to understand why this earthquake didn't extent further north, and at south, what is the role of the Mejillones peninsula that seems to act as a barrier. The focal mechanism was determined using teleseismic waveforms inversion and with a geodetic analysis (cf. Campos et al.; Bejarpi et al., in the same session). We studied the detailed source process using the strong motion data available. This earthquake ruptured the interplate seismic zone over more than 150 km and generated several large aftershocks, mainly located south of the rupture area. The strong-motion data show clearly two S-waves arrivals, allowing the localization of the 2 sources. The main shock started north of the segment close to Tocopilla. The rupture propagated southward. The second source was identified to start about 20 seconds later and was located 50 km south from the hypocenter. The network configuration provides a good resolution for the inverted slip distribution in the north-south direction, but a lower resolution for the east-west extent of the slip. However, this study of the source process of this earthquake shows a complex source with at least two slip asperities of different dynamical behavior.

Observations on Rupture Behaviour of Fluid Induced Events at the Basel EGS Based on Empirical Green's Function Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folesky, J.; Kummerow, J.; Shapiro, S. A.; Asanuma, H.; Häring, M. O.

2015-12-01

The Emprirical Green's Function (EGF) method uses pairs of events of high wave form similarity and adjacent hypocenters to decompose the influences of source time function, ray path, instrument site, and instrument response. The seismogram of the smaller event is considered as the Green's Function which then can be deconvolved from the other seismogram. The result provides a reconstructed relative source time function (RSTF) of the larger event of that event pair. The comparison of the RSTFs at different stations of the observation systems produces information on the rupture process of the larger event based on the observation of the directivity effect and on changing RSTFs complexities.The Basel EGS dataset of 2006-2007 consists of about 2800 localized events of magnitudes between 0.0

Imaging the 2017 MW 8.2 Tehuantepec intermediate-depth earthquake using Teleseismic P Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brudzinski, M.; Zhang, H.; Koper, K. D.; Pankow, K. L.

2017-12-01

The September 8, 2017 MW 8.1 Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquakes in the middle American subduction zone is one of the largest intermediate-depth earthquake ever recorded and could provide an unprecedented opportunity for understanding the mechanism of intermediate-depth earthquakes. While the hypocenter and centroid depths for this earthquake are shallower than typically considered for intermediate depth earthquakes, the normal faulting mechanism consistent with down-dip extension and location within the subducting plate align with properties of intermediate depth earthquakes. Back-projection of high-frequency teleseismic P-waves from two regional arrays for this earthquake shows unilateral rupture on a southeast-northwest striking fault that extends north of the Tehuantepec fracture zone (TFZ), with an average horizontal rupture speed of 3.0 km/s and total duration of 60 s. Guided by these back-projection results, 47 globally distributed low-frequency P-waves were inverted for a finite-fault model (FFM) of slip for both nodal planes. The FFM shows a slip deficit in proximity to the extension of the TFZ, as well as the minor rupture beyond the TFZ (confirmed by the synthetic tests), which indicates that the TFZ acted as a barrier for this earthquake. Analysis of waveform misfit leads to the preference of a subvertical plane as the causative fault. The FFM shows that the majority of the rupture is above the focal depth and consists of two large slip patches: the first one is near the hypocenter ( 55 km depth) and the second larger one near 30 km depth. The distribution of the two patches spatially agrees with seismicity that defines the upper and lower zones of a double Benioff zone (DBZ). It appears there was single fault rupture across the two depth zones of the DBZ. This is uncommon because a stark aseismic zone is typically observed between the upper and lower zones of the DBZ. This finding indicates that the mechanism for intraslab earthquakes must allow for rupture to propagate from one of the DBZ to the other despite seismic quiescence in between, suggesting the aseismic zone is conditionally stable: unable to nucleate earthquakes but able to host a large rupture going across.

Earthquake source imaging by high-resolution array analysis at regional distances: the 2010 M7 Haiti earthquake as seen by the Venezuela National Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Ampuero, J. P.; Rendon, H.

2010-12-01

Back projection of teleseismic waves based on array processing has become a popular technique for earthquake source imaging,in particular to track the areas of the source that generate the strongest high frequency radiation. The technique has been previously applied to study the rupture process of the Sumatra earthquake and the supershear rupture of the Kunlun earthquakes. Here we attempt to image the Haiti earthquake using the data recorded by Venezuela National Seismic Network (VNSN). The network is composed of 22 broad-band stations with an East-West oriented geometry, and is located approximately 10 degrees away from Haiti in the perpendicular direction to the Enriquillo fault strike. This is the first opportunity to exploit the privileged position of the VNSN to study large earthquake ruptures in the Caribbean region. This is also a great opportunity to explore the back projection scheme of the crustal Pn phase at regional distances,which provides unique complementary insights to the teleseismic source inversions. The challenge in the analysis of the 2010 M7.0 Haiti earthquake is its very compact source region, possibly shorter than 30km, which is below the resolution limit of standard back projection techniques based on beamforming. Results of back projection analysis using the teleseismic USarray data reveal little details of the rupture process. To overcome the classical resolution limit we explored the Multiple Signal Classification method (MUSIC), a high-resolution array processing technique based on the signal-noise orthognality in the eigen space of the data covariance, which achieves both enhanced resolution and better ability to resolve closely spaced sources. We experiment with various synthetic earthquake scenarios to test the resolution. We find that MUSIC provides at least 3 times higher resolution than beamforming. We also study the inherent bias due to the interferences of coherent Green’s functions, which leads to a potential quantification of biased uncertainty of the back projection. Preliminary results from the Venezuela data set shows an East to West rupture propagation along the fault with sub-Rayleigh rupture speed, consistent with a compact source with two significant asperities which are confirmed by source time function obtained from Green’s function deconvolution and other source inversion results. These efforts could lead the Venezuela National Seismic Network to play a prominent role in the timely characterization of the rupture process of large earthquakes in the Caribbean, including the future ruptures along the yet unbroken segments of the Enriquillo fault system.

Rapid earthquake hazard and loss assessment for Euro-Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdik, Mustafa; Sesetyan, Karin; Demircioglu, Mine; Hancilar, Ufuk; Zulfikar, Can; Cakti, Eser; Kamer, Yaver; Yenidogan, Cem; Tuzun, Cuneyt; Cagnan, Zehra; Harmandar, Ebru

2010-10-01

The almost-real time estimation of ground shaking and losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region was performed in the framework of the Joint Research Activity 3 (JRA-3) component of the EU FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infra-structures for European Seismology, NERIES". This project consists of finding the most likely location of the earthquake source by estimating the fault rupture parameters on the basis of rapid inversion of data from on-line regional broadband stations. It also includes an estimation of the spatial distribution of selected site-specific ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) or physical simulation of ground motion. By using the Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) software, the multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from GMPEs, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships.

Earthquake and submarine landslide tsunamis: how can we tell the difference? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tappin, D. R.; Grilli, S. T.; Harris, J.; Geller, R. J.; Masterlark, T.; Kirby, J. T.; Ma, G.; Shi, F.

2013-12-01

Several major recent events have shown the tsunami hazard from submarine mass failures (SMF), i.e., submarine landslides. In 1992 a small earthquake triggered landslide generated a tsunami over 25 meters high on Flores Island. In 1998 another small, earthquake-triggered, sediment slump-generated tsunami up to 15 meters high devastated the local coast of Papua New Guinea killing 2,200 people. It was this event that led to the recognition of the importance of marine geophysical data in mapping the architecture of seabed sediment failures that could be then used in modeling and validating the tsunami generating mechanism. Seabed mapping of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake rupture zone demonstrated, however, that large, if not great, earthquakes do not necessarily cause major seabed failures, but that along some convergent margins frequent earthquakes result in smaller sediment failures that are not tsunamigenic. Older events, such as Messina, 1908, Makran, 1945, Alaska, 1946, and Java, 2006, all have the characteristics of SMF tsunamis, but for these a SMF source has not been proven. When the 2011 tsunami struck Japan, it was generally assumed that it was directly generated by the earthquake. The earthquake has some unusual characteristics, such as a shallow rupture that is somewhat slow, but is not a 'tsunami earthquake.' A number of simulations of the tsunami based on an earthquake source have been published, but in general the best results are obtained by adjusting fault rupture models with tsunami wave gauge or other data so, to the extent that they can model the recorded tsunami data, this demonstrates self-consistency rather than validation. Here we consider some of the existing source models of the 2011 Japan event and present new tsunami simulations based on a combination of an earthquake source and an SMF mapped from offshore data. We show that the multi-source tsunami agrees well with available tide gauge data and field observations and the wave data from offshore buoys, and that the SMF generated the large runups in the Sanriku region (northern Tohoku). Our new results for the 2011 Tohoku event suggest that care is required in using tsunami wave and tide gauge data to both model and validate earthquake tsunami sources. They also suggest a potential pitfall in the use of tsunami waveform inversion from tide gauges and buoys to estimate the size and spatial characteristics of earthquake rupture. If the tsunami source has a significant SMF component such studies may overestimate earthquake magnitude. Our seabed mapping identifies other large SMFs off Sanriku that have the potential to generate significant tsunamis and which should be considered in future analyses of the tsunami hazard in Japan. The identification of two major SMF-generated tsunamis (PNG and Tohoku), especially one associated with a M9 earthquake, is important in guiding future efforts at forecasting and mitigating the tsunami hazard from large megathrust plus SMF events both in Japan and globally.

Finite Element Creep Damage Analyses and Life Prediction of P91 Pipe Containing Local Wall Thinning Defect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Jilin; Zhou, Changyu

2016-03-01

Creep continuum damage finite element (FE) analyses were performed for P91 steel pipe containing local wall thinning (LWT) defect subjected to monotonic internal pressure, monotonic bending moment and combined internal pressure and bending moment by orthogonal experimental design method. The creep damage lives of pipe containing LWT defect under different load conditions were obtained. Then, the creep damage life formulas were regressed based on the creep damage life results from FE method. At the same time a skeletal point rupture stress was found and used for life prediction which was compared with creep damage lives obtained by continuum damage analyses. From the results, the failure lives of pipe containing LWT defect can be obtained accurately by using skeletal point rupture stress method. Finally, the influence of LWT defect geometry was analysed, which indicated that relative defect depth was the most significant factor for creep damage lives of pipe containing LWT defect.

Hybrid broadband Ground Motion simulation based on a dynamic rupture model of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvez, P.; Somerville, P.; Bayless, J.; Dalguer, L. A.

2015-12-01

The rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake exhibits depth-dependent variations in the frequency content of seismic radiation from the plate interface. This depth-varying rupture property has also been observed in other subduction zones (Lay et al, 2012). During the Tohoku earthquake, the shallow region radiated coherent low frequency seismic waves whereas the deeper region radiated high frequency waves. Several kinematic inversions (Suzuki et al, 2011; Lee et al, 2011; Bletery et al, 2014; Minson et al, 2014) detected seismic waves below 0.1 Hz coming from the shallow depths that produced slip larger than 40-50 meters close to the trench. Using empirical green functions, Asano & Iwata (2012), Kurahashi and Irikura (2011) and others detected regions of strong ground motion radiation at frequencies up to 10Hz located mainly at the bottom of the plate interface. A recent dynamic model that embodies this depth-dependent radiation using physical models has been developed by Galvez et al (2014, 2015). In this model the rupture process is modeled using a linear weakening friction law with slip reactivation on the shallow region of the plate interface (Galvez et al, 2015). This model reproduces the multiple seismic wave fronts recorded on the Kik-net seismic network along the Japanese coast up to 0.1 Hz as well as the GPS displacements. In the deep region, the rupture sequence is consistent with the sequence of the strong ground motion generation areas (SMGAs) that radiate high frequency ground motion at the bottom of the plate interface (Kurahashi and Irikura, 2013). It remains challenging to perform ground motions fully coupled with a dynamic rupture up to 10 Hz for a megathrust event. Therefore, to generate high frequency ground motions, we make use of the stochastic approach of Graves and Pitarka (2010) but add to the source spectrum the slip rate function of the dynamic model. In this hybrid-dynamic approach, the slip rate function is windowed with Gaussian noise where the duration of the time window and the starting rupture is determined by the slip rate function at each point in the fault (Dalguer et al, 2002). Finally, to validate this method we compare the synthetic seismograms with the recorded ground motion for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake up to 10 Hz.

Fan-head shear rupture mechanism as a source of off-fault tensile cracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarasov, Boris

2016-04-01

This presentation discusses the role of a recently identified fan-head shear rupture mechanism [1] in the creation of off-fault tensile cracks observed in earthquake laboratory experiments conducted on brittle photoelastic specimens [2,3]. According to the fan-mechanism the shear rupture propagation is associated with consecutive creation of small slabs in the fracture tip which, due to rotation caused by shear displacement of the fracture interfaces, form a fan-structure representing the fracture head. The fan-head combines such unique features as: extremely low shear resistance (below the frictional strength) and self-sustaining tensile stress intensification along one side of the interface. The variation of tensile stress within the fan-head zone is like this: it increases with distance from the fracture tip up to a maximum value and then decreases. For the initial formation of the fan-head high local stresses corresponding to the fracture strength should be applied in a small area, however after completions of the fan-head it can propagate dynamically through the material at low shear stresses (even below the frictional strength). The fan-mechanism allows explaining all unique features associated with the off-fault cracking process observed in photoelastic experiments [2,3]. In these experiments spontaneous shear ruptures were nucleated in a bonded, precut, inclined and pre-stressed interface by producing a local pressure pulse in a small area. Isochromatic fringe patterns around a shear rupture propagating along bonded interface indicate the following features of the off-fault tensile crack development: tensile cracks nucleate and grow periodically along one side of the interface at a roughly constant angle (about 80 degrees) relative to the shear rupture interface; the tensile crack nucleation takes place some distance behind the rupture tip; with distance from the point of nucleation tensile cracks grow up to a certain length within the rupture head zone; behind this zone static microcracks are left in the wake of the propagating rupture. Unfortunately, the modern technology used in these experiments is not able to identify the shear rupture mechanism itself operated within the narrow rupture interface. However, a special analysis of side effects accompanying the shear rupture propagation (including the off-fault tensile cracking) allows supposing that the failure process was governed by the fan-mechanism. 1. Tarasov, B.G. 2014. Hitherto unknown shear rupture mechanism as a source of instability in intact hard rocks at highly confined compression. Tectonophysics, 621, 69-84. 2. Griffith, W.A., Rosakis, A., Pollard, D.D. and Ko, C.W., 2009. Dynamic rupture experiments elucidate tensile crack development during propagating earthquake ruptures, Geology, pp 795-798. 3. Ngo, D., Huang, Y., Rosakis, A., Griffith, W.A., Pollard D. 2012. Off-fault tensile cracks: A link between geological fault observations, lab experiments, and dynamic rupture models. Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 117, B01307, doi: 10.1029/2011JB008577 (2012).

A N-S fossil transform fault reactivated by the March 2, 2016 Mw7.8 southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; van der Lee, S.

2016-12-01

Warton Basin (WB) is characterized by N-S striking fossil transform faults and E-W trending extinct ridges. The 2016 Mw7.8 southwest of Sumatra earthquake, nearby the WB's center, was first imaged by back-projecting P-waves from three regional seismic networks in Europn, Japan, and Australia. Next, the rupture direction of the earthquake was further determined using the rupture directivity analysis to P-waves from the global seismic network (GSN). Finally, we inverting these GSN waveforms on a defined N-S striking vertical fault for a kinematic source model. The results show that the earthquake reactivates a 190 degree N-S striking vertical fossil transform fault and asymmetrically bilaterally ruptures a 65 km by 30 km asperity over 35 s. Specifically, the earthquake first bilaterally ruptures northward and southward at a speed of 1.0 km/s over the first 12 s, and then mainly rupture northward at a speed of 1.6 km/s. Compared with two previous M≥7.8 WB earthquakes, including the 2000 southern WB earthquake and 2012 Mw8.6 Sumatra earthquake, the lower seismic energy radiation efficiency and slower rupture velicity of the 2016 earthquake indicate the rupture of the earthquake is probably controlled by the warmer ambient slab and tectonic stress regime.

Meso-Scale Modelling of Deformation, Damage and Failure in Dual Phase Steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari Sarraf, Iman

Advanced high strength steels (AHSS), such as dual phase (DP) and transformation induced plasticity (TRIP) steels, offer high ductility, formability, and strength, as well as high strength-to-weight ratio and improved crash resistance. Dual phase steels belong to a family of high strength grades which consist of martensite, responsible for strengthening, distributed in a ductile ferrite matrix which accommodates the deformation throughout the forming process. It has been shown that the predominant damage mechanism and failure in DP steels depends on the ferrite and martensite grain sizes and their morphology, and can range from a mixture of brittle and ductile rupture to completely ductile rupture in a quasi-static uniaxial tension test. In this study, a hybrid finite element cellular automata model, initially proposed by Anton Shterenlikht (2003), was developed to evaluate the forming behaviour and predict the onset of instability and damage evolution in a dual phase steel. In this model, the finite element constitutive model is used to represent macro-level strain gradients and a damage variable, and two different cell arrays are designed to represent the ductile and brittle fracture modes in meso-scale. In the FE part of the model, a modified Rousselier ductile damage model is developed to account for nucleation, growth and coalescence of voids. Also, several rate-dependent hardening models were developed and evaluated to describe the work hardening flow curve of DP600. Based on statistical analysis and simulation results, a modified Johnson-Cook (JC) model and a multiplicative combination of the Voce-modified JC functions were found to be the most accurate hardening models. The developed models were then implemented in a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) for ABAQUS/Explicit finite element simulation software to simulate uniaxial tension tests at strain rates ranging from 0.001 1/s to 1000 1/s, Marciniak tests, and electrohydraulic free-forming (EHFF). The modified Rousselier model could successfully predict the dynamic behaviour, the onset of instability and damage progress in DP600 tensile test specimens. Also, the forming limit curve (FLC) as well as the final damage geometry in DP600 Marciniak specimens was successfully predicted and compared with experiments. A hybrid FE+CA model was utilized to predict the major fracture mode of DP600 and DP780 sheet specimens under different deformation conditions. This hybrid model is able to predict quasi-cleavage fracture in ultra-fine and coarse-grained DP600 and DP780 at low and high strain rates. The numerical results showed the capabilities of the proposed model to predict that higher martensite volume fraction, greater ferrite grain sizes and higher strain rates promote the brittle fracture mechanism whereas finer grain sizes and higher temperature alter the dominant fracture mechanism to ductile mode.

Geotechnical reconnaissance of the 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kayen, R.; Thompson, E.; Minasian, D.; Moss, R.E.S.; Collins, B.D.; Sitar, N.; Dreger, D.; Carver, G.

2004-01-01

The 2002 M7.9 Denali fault earthquake resulted in 340 km of ruptures along three separate faults, causing widespread liquefaction in the fluvial deposits of the alpine valleys of the Alaska Range and eastern lowlands of the Tanana River. Areas affected by liquefaction are largely confined to Holocene alluvial deposits, man-made embankments, and backfills. Liquefaction damage, sparse surrounding the fault rupture in the western region, was abundant and severe on the eastern rivers: the Robertson, Slana, Tok, Chisana, Nabesna and Tanana Rivers. Synthetic seismograms from a kinematic source model suggest that the eastern region of the rupture zone had elevated strong-motion levels due to rupture directivity, supporting observations of elevated geotechnical damage. We use augered soil samples and shear-wave velocity profiles made with a portable apparatus for the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) to characterize soil properties and stiffness at liquefaction sites and three trans-Alaska pipeline pump station accelerometer locations. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

SCEC Earthquake System Science Using High Performance Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maechling, P. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Archuleta, R.; Beroza, G.; Bielak, J.; Chen, P.; Cui, Y.; Day, S.; Deelman, E.; Graves, R. W.; Minster, J. B.; Olsen, K. B.

2008-12-01

The SCEC Community Modeling Environment (SCEC/CME) collaboration performs basic scientific research using high performance computing with the goal of developing a predictive understanding of earthquake processes and seismic hazards in California. SCEC/CME research areas including dynamic rupture modeling, wave propagation modeling, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and full 3D tomography. SCEC/CME computational capabilities are organized around the development and application of robust, re- usable, well-validated simulation systems we call computational platforms. The SCEC earthquake system science research program includes a wide range of numerical modeling efforts and we continue to extend our numerical modeling codes to include more realistic physics and to run at higher and higher resolution. During this year, the SCEC/USGS OpenSHA PSHA computational platform was used to calculate PSHA hazard curves and hazard maps using the new UCERF2.0 ERF and new 2008 attenuation relationships. Three SCEC/CME modeling groups ran 1Hz ShakeOut simulations using different codes and computer systems and carefully compared the results. The DynaShake Platform was used to calculate several dynamic rupture-based source descriptions equivalent in magnitude and final surface slip to the ShakeOut 1.2 kinematic source description. A SCEC/CME modeler produced 10Hz synthetic seismograms for the ShakeOut 1.2 scenario rupture by combining 1Hz deterministic simulation results with 10Hz stochastic seismograms. SCEC/CME modelers ran an ensemble of seven ShakeOut-D simulations to investigate the variability of ground motions produced by dynamic rupture-based source descriptions. The CyberShake Platform was used to calculate more than 15 new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) hazard curves using full 3D waveform modeling and the new UCERF2.0 ERF. The SCEC/CME group has also produced significant computer science results this year. Large-scale SCEC/CME high performance codes were run on NSF TeraGrid sites including simulations that use the full PSC Big Ben supercomputer (4096 cores) and simulations that ran on more than 10K cores at TACC Ranger. The SCEC/CME group used scientific workflow tools and grid-computing to run more than 1.5 million jobs at NCSA for the CyberShake project. Visualizations produced by a SCEC/CME researcher of the 10Hz ShakeOut 1.2 scenario simulation data were used by USGS in ShakeOut publications and public outreach efforts. OpenSHA was ported onto an NSF supercomputer and was used to produce very high resolution hazard PSHA maps that contained more than 1.6 million hazard curves.

Rupture process of the September 12, 2007 Southern Sumatra earthquake from tsunami waveform inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, S.; Romano, F.; Piatanesi, A.

2007-12-01

The aim of this work is to infer the slip distribution and mean rupture velocity along the rupture zone of the 12 September 2007 Southern Sumatra, Indonesia from available tide-gauge records of the tsunami. We select waveforms from 12 stations, distributed along the west coast of Sumatra and in the whole Indian Ocean (11 GLOSS stations and 1 DART buoy). We assume the fault plane and the slip direction to be consistent with both the geometry of the subducting plate and the early focal mechanism solutions. Then we subdivide the fault plane into several subfaults (both along strike and down dip) and compute the corresponding Green's functions by numerical solution of the shallow water equations through a finite difference method. The slip distribution and rupture velocity are determined simultaneously by means of a simulated annealing technique. We compare the recorded and synthetic waveforms in the time domain, using a cost function that is a trade-off between the L1 and L2 norms. Preliminary synthetic checkerboard tests, using the station coverage and the sampling interval of the available data, indicate that the main features of the rupture process may be robustly inverted.

Probabilistic approach for earthquake scenarios in the Marmara region from dynamic rupture simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo

2014-05-01

The Marmara region (Turkey) along the North Anatolian fault is known as a high potential of large earthquakes in the next decades. For the purpose of seismic hazard/risk evaluation, kinematic and dynamic source models have been proposed (e.g. Oglesby and Mai, GJI, 2012). In general, the simulated earthquake scenarios depend on the hypothesis and cannot be verified before the expected earthquake. We then introduce a probabilistic insight to give the initial/boundary conditions to statistically analyze the simulated scenarios. We prepare different fault geometry models, tectonic loading and hypocenter locations. We keep the same framework of the simulation procedure as the dynamic rupture process of the adjacent 1999 Izmit earthquake (Aochi and Madariaga, BSSA, 2003), as the previous models were able to reproduce the seismological/geodetic aspects of the event. Irregularities in fault geometry play a significant role to control the rupture progress, and a relatively large change in geometry may work as barriers. The variety of the simulate earthquake scenarios should be useful for estimating the variety of the expected ground motion.

Investigating the Physics Behind VLFEs and LFEs: Analysis Based on Dynamic Rupture Models with Ductile-like Friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, B.; Oglesby, D. D.; Ghosh, A.; LI, B.

2017-12-01

Very low frequency earthquakes (VLFE) and low frequency earthquakes (LFE) are two main types of seismic signal that are observed during slow earthquakes. These phenomena differ from standard ("fast") earthquakes in many ways. In contrast to seismic signals generated by standard earthquakes, these two types of signal lack energy at higher frequencies, and have very low stress drops of around 10 kPa. In addition, the Moment-Duration scaling relationship shown by VLFEs and LFEs is linear(M T) instead of M T^3 for regular earthquakes. However, if investigated separately over a small range magnitudes and durations, the scaling relationship for each is somewhat closer to M T^3, not M T. The physical mechanism of VLFEs and LFEs is still not clear, although some models have explored this issue [e.g., Gomberg, 2016b]. Here we investigate the behavior of dynamic rupture models with a ductile-like viscous frictional property [Ando et al., 2010; Nakata et al., 2011; Ando et al., 2012] on a single patch. In the model's framework, VLFE source patches are characterized by a high viscous damping term η and a larger area( 25km^2), while sources that approach LFE properties have a low viscous damping term η and smaller patch area(<0.5km^2). Using both analytical and numerical analyses, we show how and why this model may help to explain current observations. This model supports the idea that VLFEs and LFEs are distinct events, possibly rupturing distinct patches with their own stress dynamics [Hutchison and Ghosh, 2016]. The model also makes predictions that can be tested in future observational experiments.

Finite-fault slip model of the 2016 Mw 7.5 Chiloé earthquake, southern Chile, estimated from Sentinel-1 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wenbin

2017-05-01

Subduction earthquakes have been widely studied in the Chilean subduction zone, but earthquakes occurring in its southern part have attracted less research interest primarily due to its lower rate of seismic activity. Here I use Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data and range offset measurements to generate coseismic crustal deformation maps of the 2016 Mw 7.5 Chiloé earthquake in southern Chile. I find a concentrated crustal deformation with ground displacement of approximately 50 cm in the southern part of the Chiloé island. The best fitting fault model shows a pure thrust-fault motion on a shallow dipping plane orienting 4° NNE. The InSAR-determined moment is 2.4 × 1020 Nm with a shear modulus of 30 GPa, equivalent to Mw 7.56, which is slightly lower than the seismic moment. The model shows that the slip did not reach the trench, and it reruptured part of the fault that ruptured in the 1960 Mw 9.5 earthquake. The 2016 event has only released a small portion of the accumulated strain energy on the 1960 rupture zone, suggesting that the seismic hazard of future great earthquakes in southern Chile is high.

CFD modelling of abdominal aortic aneurysm on hemodynamic loads using a realistic geometry with CT.

PubMed

Soudah, Eduardo; Ng, E Y K; Loong, T H; Bordone, Maurizio; Pua, Uei; Narayanan, Sriram

2013-01-01

The objective of this study is to find a correlation between the abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) geometric parameters, wall stress shear (WSS), abdominal flow patterns, intraluminal thrombus (ILT), and AAA arterial wall rupture using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Real AAA 3D models were created by three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction of in vivo acquired computed tomography (CT) images from 5 patients. Based on 3D AAA models, high quality volume meshes were created using an optimal tetrahedral aspect ratio for the whole domain. In order to quantify the WSS and the recirculation inside the AAA, a 3D CFD using finite elements analysis was used. The CFD computation was performed assuming that the arterial wall is rigid and the blood is considered a homogeneous Newtonian fluid with a density of 1050 kg/m(3) and a kinematic viscosity of 4 × 10(-3) Pa·s. Parallelization procedures were used in order to increase the performance of the CFD calculations. A relation between AAA geometric parameters (asymmetry index ( β ), saccular index ( γ ), deformation diameter ratio ( χ ), and tortuosity index ( ε )) and hemodynamic loads was observed, and it could be used as a potential predictor of AAA arterial wall rupture and potential ILT formation.

Ball-and-socket tectonic rotation during the 2013 Mw 7.7 Balochistan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, W. D.; Hayes, G. P.; Briggs, R. W.; Gold, R. D.; Bilham, R.

2014-10-01

The September 2013 Mw 7.7 Balochistan earthquake ruptured a ∼200-km-long segment of the curved Hoshab fault in southern Pakistan with 10 ± 0.2 m of peak sinistral and ∼ 1.7 ± 0.8 m of dip slip. This rupture is unusual because the fault dips 60 ± 15° towards the focus of a small circle centered in northwest Pakistan, and, despite a 30° increase in obliquity along strike, the ratios of strike and dip slip remain relatively uniform. Surface displacements and geodetic and teleseismic source inversions quantify a bilateral rupture that propagated rapidly at shallow depths from a transtensional jog near the northern end of the rupture. Static friction prior to rupture was unusually weak (μ < 0.05), and friction may have approached zero during dynamic rupture. Here we show that the inward-dipping Hoshab fault defines the northern rim of a structural unit in southeast Makran that rotates - akin to a 2-D ball-and-socket joint - counter-clockwise in response to India's penetration into the Eurasian plate. This rotation accounts for complexity in the Chaman fault system and, in principle, reduces seismic potential near Karachi; nonetheless, these findings highlight deficiencies in strong ground motion equations and tectonic models that invoke Anderson-Byerlee faulting predictions.

Ball-and-socket tectonic rotation during the 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnhart, William D.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Briggs, Richard W.; Gold, Ryan D.; Bilham, R.

2014-01-01

The September 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan earthquake ruptured a ∼200-km-long segment of the curved Hoshab fault in southern Pakistan with 10±0.2 m of peak sinistral and ∼1.7±0.8 m of dip slip. This rupture is unusual because the fault dips 60±15° towards the focus of a small circle centered in northwest Pakistan, and, despite a 30° increase in obliquity along strike, the ratios of strike and dip slip remain relatively uniform. Surface displacements and geodetic and teleseismic source inversions quantify a bilateral rupture that propagated rapidly at shallow depths from a transtensional jog near the northern end of the rupture. Static friction prior to rupture was unusually weak (μ<0.05), and friction may have approached zero during dynamic rupture. Here we show that the inward-dipping Hoshab fault defines the northern rim of a structural unit in southeast Makran that rotates – akin to a 2-D ball-and-socket joint – counter-clockwise in response to India's penetration into the Eurasian plate. This rotation accounts for complexity in the Chaman fault system and, in principle, reduces seismic potential near Karachi; nonetheless, these findings highlight deficiencies in strong ground motion equations and tectonic models that invoke Anderson–Byerlee faulting predictions.

Seismicity and stress transfer studies in eastern California and Nevada: Implications for earthquake sources and tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichinose, Gene Aaron

The source parameters for eastern California and western Nevada earthquakes are estimated from regionally recorded seismograms using a moment tensor inversion. We use the point source approximation and fit the seismograms, at long periods. We generated a moment tensor catalog for Mw > 4.0 since 1997 and Mw > 5.0 since 1990. The catalog includes centroid depths, seismic moments, and focal mechanisms. The regions with the most moderate sized earthquakes in the last decade were in aftershock zones located in Eureka Valley, Double Spring Flat, Coso, Ridgecrest, Fish Lake Valley, and Scotty's Junction. The remaining moderate size earthquakes were distributed across the region. The 1993 (Mw 6.0) Eureka Valley earthquake occurred in the Eastern California Shear Zone. Careful aftershock relocations were used to resolve structure from aftershock clusters. The mainshock appears to rupture along the western side of the Last Change Range along a 30° to 60° west dipping fault plane, consistent with previous geodetic modeling. We estimate the source parameters for aftershocks at source-receiver distances less than 20 km using waveform modeling. The relocated aftershocks and waveform modeling results do not indicate any significant evidence of low angle faulting (dips > 30°. The results did reveal deformation along vertical faults within the hanging-wall block, consistent with observed surface rupture along the Saline Range above the dipping fault plane. The 1994 (Mw 5.8) Double Spring Flat earthquake occurred along the eastern Sierra Nevada between overlapping normal faults. Aftershock migration and cross fault triggering occurred in the following two years, producing seventeen Mw > 4 aftershocks The source parameters for the largest aftershocks were estimated from regionally recorded seismograms using moment tensor inversion. We estimate the source parameters for two moderate sized earthquakes which occurred near Reno, Nevada, the 1995 (Mw 4.4) Border Town, and the 1998 (Mw 4.7) Incline Village Earthquakes. We test to see how such stress interactions affected a cluster of six large earthquakes (Mw 6.6 to 7.5) between 1915 to 1954 within the Central Nevada Seismic Belt. We compute the static stress changes for these earthquake using dislocation models based on the location and amount of surface rupture. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Continuing Megathrust Earthquake Potential in northern Chile after the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, G. P.; Herman, M. W.; Barnhart, W. D.; Furlong, K. P.; Riquelme, S.; Benz, H.; Bergman, E.; Barrientos, S. E.; Earle, P. S.; Samsonov, S. V.

2014-12-01

The seismic gap theory, which identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison to other portions of a fault, has successfully explained past earthquakes and is useful for qualitatively describing where future large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which until recently had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M~8.8 event in 1877. On April 1 2014, a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this northern Chile seismic gap, offshore of the city of Iquique; the size and spatial extent of the rupture indicate it was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Here, we present a rapid assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 seismic sequence offshore northern Chile, including analyses of earthquake (fore- and aftershock) relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations, and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer calculations over the duration of the sequence. This ensemble of information allows us to place the current sequence within the context of historic seismicity in the region, and to assess areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results indicate that while accumulated strain has been released for a portion of the northern Chile seismic gap, significant sections have not ruptured in almost 150 years. These observations suggest that large-to-great sized megathrust earthquakes will occur north and south of the 2014 Iquique sequence sooner than might be expected had the 2014 events ruptured the entire seismic gap.