Four-component numerical simulation model of radiative convective interactions in large-scale oxygen-hydrogen turbulent fire balls

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Surzhikov, S.T.

1996-12-31

Two-dimensional radiative gas dynamics model for numerical simulation of oxygen-hydrogen fire ball which may be generated by an explosion of a launch vehicle with cryogenic (LO{sub 2}-LH{sub 2}) fuel components is presented. The following physical-chemical processes are taken into account in the numerical model: and effective chemical reaction between the gaseous components (O{sub 2}-H{sub 2}) of the propellant, turbulent mixing and diffusion of the components, and radiative heat transfer. The results of numerical investigations of the following problems are presented: The influence of radiative heat transfer on fire ball gas dynamics during the first 13 sec after explosion, the effectmore » of the fuel gaseous components afterburning on fire ball gas dynamics, and the effect of turbulence on fire ball gas dynamics (in a framework of algebraic model of turbulent mixing).« less

[Application of spatially explicit landscape model in soil loss study in Huzhong area].

PubMed

Xu, Chonggang; Hu, Yuanman; Chang, Yu; Li, Xiuzhen; Bu, Renchang; He, Hongshi; Leng, Wenfang

2004-10-01

Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) has been widely used to estimate the average annual soil loss. In most of the previous work on soil loss evaluation on forestland, cover management factor was calculated from the static forest landscape. The advent of spatially explicit forest landscape model in the last decade, which explicitly simulates the forest succession dynamics under natural and anthropogenic disturbances (fire, wind, harvest and so on) on heterogeneous landscape, makes it possible to take into consideration the change of forest cover, and to dynamically simulate the soil loss in different year (e.g. 10 years and 20 years after current year). In this study, we linked a spatially explicit landscape model (LANDIS) with USLE to simulate the soil loss dynamics under two scenarios: fire and no harvest, fire and harvest. We also simulated the soil loss with no fire and no harvest as a control. The results showed that soil loss varied periodically with simulation year, and the amplitude of change was the lowest under the control scenario and the highest under the fire and no harvest scenario. The effect of harvest on soil loss could not be easily identified on the map; however, the cumulative effect of harvest on soil loss was larger than that of fire. Decreasing the harvest area and the percent of bare soil increased by harvest could significantly reduce soil loss, but had no significant effects on the dynamic of soil loss. Although harvest increased the annual soil loss, it tended to decrease the variability of soil loss between different simulation years.

Simulating effects of fire on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes with the ecological process model FIRE-BGC.

PubMed

Keane, R E; Ryan, K C; Running, S W

1996-03-01

A mechanistic, biogeochemical succession model, FIRE-BGC, was used to investigate the role of fire on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. FIRE-BGC is an individual-tree model-created by merging the gap-phase process-based model FIRESUM with the mechanistic ecosystem biogeochemical model FOREST-BGC-that has mixed spatial and temporal resolution in its simulation architecture. Ecological processes that act at a landscape level, such as fire and seed dispersal, are simulated annually from stand and topographic information. Stand-level processes, such as tree establishment, growth and mortality, organic matter accumulation and decomposition, and undergrowth plant dynamics are simulated both daily and annually. Tree growth is mechanistically modeled based on the ecosystem process approach of FOREST-BGC where carbon is fixed daily by forest canopy photosynthesis at the stand level. Carbon allocated to the tree stem at the end of the year generates the corresponding diameter and height growth. The model also explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. We simulated the effects of fire on ecosystem characteristics of net primary productivity, evapotranspiration, standing crop biomass, nitrogen cycling and leaf area index over 200 years for the 50,000-ha McDonald Drainage in Glacier National Park. Results show increases in net primary productivity and available nitrogen when fires are included in the simulation. Standing crop biomass and evapotranspiration decrease under a fire regime. Shade-intolerant species dominate the landscape when fires are excluded. Model tree increment predictions compared well with field data.

On efficiency of fire simulation realization: parallelization with greater number of computational meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valasek, Lukas; Glasa, Jan

2017-12-01

Current fire simulation systems are capable to utilize advantages of high-performance computer (HPC) platforms available and to model fires efficiently in parallel. In this paper, efficiency of a corridor fire simulation on a HPC computer cluster is discussed. The parallel MPI version of Fire Dynamics Simulator is used for testing efficiency of selected strategies of allocation of computational resources of the cluster using a greater number of computational cores. Simulation results indicate that if the number of cores used is not equal to a multiple of the total number of cluster node cores there are allocation strategies which provide more efficient calculations.

Obtaining a Pragmatic Representation of Fire Disturbance in Dynamic Vegetation Models by Assimilating Earth Observation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kantzas, Euripides; Quegan, Shaun

2015-04-01

Fire constitutes a violent and unpredictable pathway of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being in many biomes of similar magnitude to that of Net Ecosystem Exchange, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in IPCC General Circulation Models poorly represent fire behavior and dynamics, a fact which still remains understated. As DVMs operate on a deterministic, grid cell-by-grid cell basis they are unable to describe a host of important fire characteristics such as its propagation, magnitude of area burned and stochastic nature. Here we address these issues by describing a model-independent methodology which assimilates Earth Observation (EO) data by employing image analysis techniques and algorithms to offer a realistic fire disturbance regime in a DVM. This novel approach, with minimum model restructuring, manages to retain the Fire Return Interval produced by the model whilst assigning pragmatic characteristics to its fire outputs thus allowing realistic simulations of fire-related processes such as carbon injection into the atmosphere and permafrost degradation. We focus our simulations in the Arctic and specifically Canada and Russia and we offer a snippet of how this approach permits models to engage in post-fire dynamics hitherto absent from any other model regardless of complexity.

Forest-fire models

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

2013-01-01

For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

VISUAL-SEVEIF, a tool for integrating fire behavior simulation and economic evaluation of the impact of Wildfires

Treesearch

Francisco Rodríguez y Silva; Juan Ramón Molina Martínez; Miguel Ángel Herrera Machuca; Jesús Mª Rodríguez Leal

2013-01-01

Progress made in recent years in fire science, particularly as applied to forest fire protection, coupled with the increased power offered by mathematical processors integrated into computers, has led to important developments in the field of dynamic and static simulation of forest fires. Furthermore, and similarly, econometric models applied to economic...

A cut-cell immersed boundary technique for fire dynamics simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanella, Marcos; McDermott, Randall; Forney, Glenn

2015-11-01

Fire simulation around complex geometry is gaining increasing attention in performance based design of fire protection systems, fire-structure interaction and pollutant transport in complex terrains, among others. This presentation will focus on our present effort in improving the capability of FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator, developed at the Fire Research Division, NIST. https://github.com/firemodels/fds-smv) to represent fire scenarios around complex bodies. Velocities in the vicinity of the bodies are reconstructed using a classical immersed boundary scheme (Fadlun and co-workers, J. Comput. Phys., 161:35-60, 2000). Also, a conservative treatment of scalar transport equations (i.e. for chemical species) will be presented. In our method, discrete conservation and no penetration of species across solid boundaries are enforced using a cut-cell finite volume scheme. The small cell problem inherent to the method is tackled using explicit-implicit domain decomposition for scalar, within the FDS time integration scheme. Some details on the derivation, implementation and numerical tests of this numerical scheme will be discussed.

Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon-Cerrado border

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.

2018-02-01

Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.

How fuel treatment types, locations, and amounts impact landscape-scale fire behavior and carbon dynamics

Treesearch

Christopher A. Dicus; Kevin J. Osborne

2015-01-01

When managing for fire across a large landscape, the types of fuel treatments, the locations of treatments, and the percentage of the landscape being treated should all interact to impact not only potential fire size, but also carbon dynamics across that landscape. To investigate these interactions, we utilized a forest growth model (FVS-FFE) and fire simulation...

Simulating historical landscape dynamics using the landscape fire succession model LANDSUM version 4.0

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Sarah D. Pratt

2006-01-01

The range and variation of historical landscape dynamics could provide a useful reference for designing fuel treatments on today's landscapes. Simulation modeling is a vehicle that can be used to estimate the range of conditions experienced on historical landscapes. A landscape fire succession model called LANDSUMv4 (LANDscape SUccession Model version 4.0) is...

Dynamic Simulation of VEGA SRM Bench Firing By Using Propellant Complex Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Trapani, C. D.; Mastrella, E.; Bartoccini, D.; Squeo, E. A.; Mastroddi, F.; Coppotelli, G.; Linari, M.

2012-07-01

During the VEGA launcher development, from the 2004 up to now, 8 firing tests have been performed at Salto di Quirra (Sardinia, Italy) and Kourou (Guyana, Fr) with the objective to characterize and qualify of the Zefiros and P80 Solid Rocket Motors (SRM). In fact the VEGA launcher configuration foreseen 3 solid stages based on P80, Z23 and Z9 Solid Rocket Motors respectively. One of the primary objectives of the firing test is to correctly characterize the dynamic response of the SRM in order to apply such a characterization to the predictions and simulations of the VEGA launch dynamic environment. Considering that the solid propellant is around 90% of the SRM mass, it is very important to dynamically characterize it, and to increase the confidence in the simulation of the dynamic levels transmitted to the LV upper part from the SRMs. The activity is articulated in three parts: • consolidation of an experimental method for the dynamic characterization of the complex dynamic elasticity modulus of elasticity of visco-elastic materials applicable to the SRM propellant operative conditions • introduction of the complex dynamic elasticity modulus in a numerical FEM benchmark based on MSC NASTRAN solver • analysis of the effect of the introduction of the complex dynamic elasticity modulus in the Zefiros FEM focusing on experimental firing test data reproduction with numerical approach.

A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson

2004-01-01

Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages--fire ignition and fire initiation. However, the exponential and Weibull fire-...

Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

Treesearch

C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

2015-01-01

Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balshi, M. S.; McGuire, A.D.; Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Kasischke, E.; Wirth, C.; Flannigan, M.; Harden, J.; Clein, Joy S.; Burnside, T.J.; McAllister, J.; Kurz, W.A.; Apps, M.; Shvidenko, A.

2007-01-01

Wildfire is a common occurrence in ecosystems of northern high latitudes, and changes in the fire regime of this region have consequences for carbon feedbacks to the climate system. To improve our understanding of how wildfire influences carbon dynamics of this region, we used the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage north of 45??N from the start of spatially explicit historically recorded fire records in the twentieth century through 2002, and evaluated the role of fire in the carbon dynamics of the region within the context of ecosystem responses to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate. Our analysis indicates that fire plays an important role in interannual and decadal scale variation of source/sink relationships of northern terrestrial ecosystems and also suggests that atmospheric CO2 may be important to consider in addition to changes in climate and fire disturbance. There are substantial uncertainties in the effects of fire on carbon storage in our simulations. These uncertainties are associated with sparse fire data for northern Eurasia, uncertainty in estimating carbon consumption, and difficulty in verifying assumptions about the representation of fires that occurred prior to the start of the historical fire record. To improve the ability to better predict how fire will influence carbon storage of this region in the future, new analyses of the retrospective role of fire in the carbon dynamics of northern high latitudes should address these uncertainties. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE): Modeling gaps and data needs

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu; Adam Kochanski; Kirk Baker; Ruddy Mell; Rodman Linn; Ronan Paugam; Jan Mandel; Aime Fournier; Mary Ann Jenkins; Scott Goodrick; Gary Achtemeier; Andrew Hudak; Matthew Dickson; Brian Potter; Craig Clements; Shawn Urbanski; Roger Ottmar; Narasimhan Larkin; Timothy Brown; Nancy French; Susan Prichard; Adam Watts; Derek McNamara

2017-01-01

Fire and smoke models are numerical tools for simulating fire behavior, smoke dynamics, and air quality impacts of wildland fires. Fire models are developed based on the fundamental chemistry and physics of combustion and fire spread or statistical analysis of experimental data (Sullivan 2009). They provide information on fire spread and fuel consumption for safe and...

Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

2013-04-01

Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process. It is the most important disturbance worldwide in terms of area and variety of biomes affected; a major mechanism by which carbon is transferred from the land to the atmosphere (2-4 Pg per annum, equiv. 20-30% of global fossil fuel emissions over the last decade); and globally a significant source of particulate aerosols and trace greenhouse gases. Fire is also potentially important as a feedback in the climate system. If climate change favours more intense fire regimes, this would result in a net transfer of carbon from ecosystems to the atmosphere, as well as higher emissions, and under certain circumstances, increased troposphere ozone production- all contributing to positive climate-land surface feedbacks. Quantitative analysis of fire-vegetation-climate interactions has been held back until recently by a lack of consistent global data sets on fire, and by the underdeveloped state of dynamic vegetation-fire modelling. Dynamic vegetation-fire modelling is an essential part of our forecasting armory for examining the possible impacts of climate, fire regimes and land-use on ecosystems and emissions from biomass burning beyond the observation period, as part of future climate or paleo-climate studies. LPJ-GUESS is a process-based model of vegetation dynamics designed for regional to global applications. It combines features of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) with those of the General Ecosystem Simulator (GUESS) in a single, flexible modelling framework. The models have identical representations of eco-physiological and biogeochemical processes, including the hydrological cycle. However, they differ in the detail with which vegetation dynamics and canopy structure are simulated. Simplified, computationally efficient representations are used in the LPJ-DGVM, while LPJ-GUESS employs a gap-model approach, which better captures ecological succession and hence ecosystem changes due to disturbance such as fire. SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRe and Emissions) mechanistically simulates the number of fires, area burnt, fire intensity, crown fires, fire-induced plant mortality, and emissions of carbon, trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. Originally developed as an embedded model within LPJ-DGVM, SPITFIRE has since been coupled to LPJ-GUESS. However, neither LPJ-DGVM-SPITFIRE nor LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE has been fully benchmarked, especially in terms of how well each model simulates vegetation patterns and biomass in areas where fire is known to be important. This information is crucial if we are to have confidence in the models in forecasting fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems. Here we report on the benchmarking of the LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE model. We benchmarked LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE driven by a combination of daily reanalysis climate data (Sheffield 2012), monthly GFEDv3 burnt area data (1997-2009) (van der Werf et al. 2010) and long-term annual fire statistics (1901 to 2000) (Mouillot and Field 2005) against new Lidar-based biomass data for tropical forests and savannas (Saatchi et al. 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). Our new work has focused on revising the way GUESS simulates tree allometry, light penetration through the tree canopy and sapling recruitment, and how GUESS-SPITFIRE simulates fire-induced mortality, all based on recent literature, as well as a more explicit accounting of land cover change (JRC's GLC 2009). We present how these combined changes result in a much improved simulation of tree carbon across the tropics, including the Americas, Africa, Asia and Australia. Our results are compared with respect to more empirical-based approaches to calculating emissions from biomass burning. We discuss our findings in terms of improved forecasting of fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems.

A Complex-Valued Firing-Rate Model That Approximates the Dynamics of Spiking Networks

PubMed Central

Schaffer, Evan S.; Ostojic, Srdjan; Abbott, L. F.

2013-01-01

Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons. PMID:24204236

Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S. L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

2013-04-01

Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forest and leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. To accurately quantify the role of fire in historical and current regional forest carbon balance using models, one needs to explicitly simulate the new forest cohort that is established after fire. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate boreal forest fire CO2 emissions and follow-up recovery after a stand-replacing fire, with representation of postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the following self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against three clusters of postfire forest chronosequence observations in Canada and Alaska. Evaluation variables for simulated postfire carbon dynamics include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index (LAI), and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). The model simulation results, when forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history on each chronosequence site, generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m-2 yr-1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m-2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m-2). We find that current postfire forest carbon sink on evaluation sites observed by chronosequence methods is mainly driven by historical atmospheric CO2 increase when forests recover from fire disturbance. Historical climate generally exerts a negative effect, probably due to increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increase without sufficient increase in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon stocks evolution after fire, making it suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role on ecosystem carbon balance.

Modeling the effects of fire on the long-term dynamics and restoration of yellow pine and oak forests in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

Treesearch

Charles W. Lafon; John D. Waldron; David M. Cairns; Maria D. Tchakerian; Robert N. Coulson; Kier D. Klepzig

2007-01-01

We used LANDIS, a model of forest disturbance and succession, to simulate successional dynamics of forests in the southern Appalachian Mountains. The simulated environments are based on the Great Smoky Mountains landscapes studied by Whittaker. We focused on the consequences of two contrasting disturbance regimes—fire exclusion versus frequent burning—for the Yellow...

A dynamic organic soil biogeochemical model for simulating the effects of wildfire on soil environmental conditions and carbon dynamics of black spruce forests

Treesearch

Shuhua Yi; A. David McGuire; Eric Kasischke; Jennifer Harden; Kristen Manies; Michelle Mack; Merritt Turetsky

2010-01-01

Ecosystem models have not comprehensively considered how interactions among fire disturbance, soil environmental conditions, and biogeochemical processes affect ecosystem dynamics in boreal forest ecosystems. In this study, we implemented a dynamic organic soil structure in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM) to investigate the effects of fire on soil temperature...

A Partially-Stirred Batch Reactor Model for Under-Ventilated Fire Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermott, Randall; Weinschenk, Craig

2013-11-01

A simple discrete quadrature method is developed for closure of the mean chemical source term in large-eddy simulations (LES) and implemented in the publicly available fire model, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). The method is cast as a partially-stirred batch reactor model for each computational cell. The model has three distinct components: (1) a subgrid mixing environment, (2) a mixing model, and (3) a set of chemical rate laws. The subgrid probability density function (PDF) is described by a linear combination of Dirac delta functions with quadrature weights set to satisfy simple integral constraints for the computational cell. It is shown that under certain limiting assumptions, the present method reduces to the eddy dissipation concept (EDC). The model is used to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a methane slot burner and in LES of an under-ventilated compartment fire.

Large eddy simulation of forest canopy flow for wildland fire modeling

Treesearch

Eric Mueller; William Mell; Albert Simeoni

2014-01-01

Large eddy simulation (LES) based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulators have obtained increasing attention in the wildland fire research community, as these tools allow the inclusion of important driving physics. However, due to the complexity of the models, individual aspects must be isolated and tested rigorously to ensure meaningful results. As wind is a...

User's guide [Chapter 3

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; Donald C. E. Robinson; Sarah J. Beukema

2003-01-01

The Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) simulates fuel dynamics and potential fire behavior over time, in the context of stand development and management. This chapter presents the model's options, provides annotated examples, describes the outputs, and describes how to use and apply the model.

Purpose and applications [Chapter 1

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston

2003-01-01

The Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) simulates fuel dynamics and potential fire behavior over time, in the context of stand development and management. This chapter provides an introduction to the model by illustrating its purpose and chronicling some of the applications it has supported.

Leaving moss and litter layers undisturbed reduces the short-term environmental consequences of heathland managed burns.

PubMed

Grau-Andrés, Roger; Davies, G Matt; Waldron, Susan; Scott, E Marian; Gray, Alan

2017-12-15

Variation in the structure of ground fuels, i.e. the moss and litter (M/L) layer, may be an important control on fire severity in heather moorlands and thus influence vegetation regeneration and soil carbon dynamics. We completed experimental fires in a Calluna vulgaris-dominated heathland to study the role of the M/L layer in determining (i) fire-induced temperature pulses into the soil and (ii) post-fire soil thermal dynamics. Manually removing the M/L layer before burning increased fire-induced soil heating, both at the soil surface and 2 cm below. Burnt plots where the M/L layer was removed simulated the fuel structure after high severity fires where ground fuels are consumed but the soil does not ignite. Where the M/L layer was manually removed, either before or after the fire, post-fire soil thermal dynamics showed larger diurnal and seasonal variation, as well as similar patterns to those observed after wildfires, compared to burnt plots where the M/L layer was not manipulated. We used soil temperatures to explore potential changes in post-fire soil respiration. Simulated high fire severity (where the M/L layer was manually removed) increased estimates of soil respiration in warm months. With projected fire regimes shifting towards higher severity fires, our results can help land managers develop strategies to balance ecosystem services in Calluna-dominated habitats. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Chapter 4: Variant descriptions

Treesearch

Duncan C. Lutes; Donald C. E. Robinson

2003-01-01

The Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) simulates fuel dynamics and potential fire behavior over time, in the context of stand development and management. This report documents differences between geographic variants of the FFE. It is a companion document to the FFE "Model Description" and "User's Guide."...

Numerical modeling of the effects of fire-induced convection and fire-atmosphere interactions on wildfire spread and fire plume dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ruiyu

It is possible due to present day computing power to produce a fluid dynamical physically-based numerical solution to wildfire behavior, at least in the research mode. This type of wildfire modeling affords a flexibility and produces details that are not available in either current operational wildfire behavior models or field experiments. However before using these models to study wildfire, validation is necessary, and model results need to be systematically and objectively analyzed and compared to real fires. Plume theory and data from the Meteotron experiment, which was specially designed to provide results from measurements for the theoretical study of a convective plume produced by a high heat source at the ground, are used here to evaluate the fire plume properties simulated by two numerical wildfire models, the Fire Dynamics Simulator or FDS, and the Clark coupled atmosphere-fire model. The study indicates that the FDS produces good agreement with the plume theory and the Meteotron results. The study also suggests that the coupled atmosphere-fire model, a less explicit and ideally less computationally demanding model than the FDS; can produce good agreement, but that the agreement is sensitive to the method of putting the energy released from the fire into the atmosphere. The WFDS (Wildfire and wildland-urban interface FDS), an extension of the FDS to the vegetative fuel, and the Australian grass fire experiments are used to evaluate and improve the UULES-wildfire coupled model. Despite the simple fire parameterization in the UULES-wildfire coupled model, the fireline is fairly well predicted in terms of both shape and location in the simulation of Australian grass fire experiment F19. Finally, the UULES-wildfire coupled model is used to examine how the turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) affects the growth of the grass fires. The model fires showed significant randomness in fire growth: Fire spread is not deterministic in the ABL, and a probabilistic prediction method is warranted. Of the two contributors to the variability in fire growth in the grass fire simulations in the ABL, fire-induced convection, as opposed to the turbulent ABL wind, appears to be the more important one. One mechanism associated with enhanced fire-induced flow is the downdraft behind the frontal fireline. The downdraft is the direct result of the random interaction between the fire plume and the large eddies in the ABL. This study indicates a connection between fire variability in rate of spread and area burnt and so-called convective velocity scale, and it may be possible to use this boundary-layer scale parameter to account for the effects of ABL turbulence on fire spread and fire behavior in today's operational fire prediction systems.

Atmosphere-fire simulation of effects of low-level jets on pyro-convective plume dynamics

Treesearch

Colin C. Simpson; Marwan Katurji; Michael T. Kiefer; Shiyuan Zhong; Joseph J. Charney; Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bian

2013-01-01

Blow-up fire behaviour can be broadly defined as a rapid escalation in the intensity or forward rate of spread of a wildland fire, and is often accompanied by extreme pyro-convection associated with rapid smoke release and dispersion. Blow-up fire behaviour is difficult to predict and has been linked to firefighter fatalities, making it an important fire management...

Developmental metaplasticity in neural circuit codes of firing and structure.

PubMed

Baram, Yoram

2017-01-01

Firing-rate dynamics have been hypothesized to mediate inter-neural information transfer in the brain. While the Hebbian paradigm, relating learning and memory to firing activity, has put synaptic efficacy variation at the center of cortical plasticity, we suggest that the external expression of plasticity by changes in the firing-rate dynamics represents a more general notion of plasticity. Hypothesizing that time constants of plasticity and firing dynamics increase with age, and employing the filtering property of the neuron, we obtain the elementary code of global attractors associated with the firing-rate dynamics in each developmental stage. We define a neural circuit connectivity code as an indivisible set of circuit structures generated by membrane and synapse activation and silencing. Synchronous firing patterns under parameter uniformity, and asynchronous circuit firing are shown to be driven, respectively, by membrane and synapse silencing and reactivation, and maintained by the neuronal filtering property. Analytic, graphical and simulation representation of the discrete iteration maps and of the global attractor codes of neural firing rate are found to be consistent with previous empirical neurobiological findings, which have lacked, however, a specific correspondence between firing modes, time constants, circuit connectivity and cortical developmental stages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of fire disturbance on soil thermal and carbon dynamics in Alaskan Tundra and Boreal forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Y.; Rastetter, E.; Shaver, G. R.; Rocha, A. V.

2012-12-01

In Alaska, fire disturbance is a major component influencing the soil water and energy balance in both tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. Fire-caused changes in soil environment further affect both above- and below-ground carbon cycles depending on different fire severities. Understanding the effects of fire disturbance on soil thermal change requires implicit modeling work on the post-fire soil thawing and freezing processes. In this study, we model the soil temperature profiles in multiple burned and non-burned sites using a well-developed soil thermal model which fully couples soil water and heat transport. The subsequent change in carbon dynamics is analyzed based on site level observations and simulations from the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model. With comparison between burned and non-burned sites, we compare and contrast fire effects on soil thermal and carbon dynamics in continuous permafrost (Anaktuvik fire in north slope), discontinuous permafrost (Erickson Creek fire at Hess Creek) and non-permafrost zone (Delta Junction fire in interior Alaska). Then we check the post-fire recovery of soil temperature profiles at sites with different fire severities in both tundra and boreal forest fire areas. We further project the future changes in soil thermal and carbon dynamics using projected climate data from Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning (SNAP). This study provides information to improve the understanding of fire disturbance on soil thermal and carbon dynamics and the consequent response under a warming climate.

NEW IMPROVEMENTS TO MFIRE TO ENHANCE FIRE MODELING CAPABILITIES.

PubMed

Zhou, L; Smith, A C; Yuan, L

2016-06-01

NIOSH's mine fire simulation program, MFIRE, is widely accepted as a standard for assessing and predicting the impact of a fire on the mine ventilation system and the spread of fire contaminants in coal and metal/nonmetal mines, which has been used by U.S. and international companies to simulate fires for planning and response purposes. MFIRE is a dynamic, transient-state, mine ventilation network simulation program that performs normal planning calculations. It can also be used to analyze ventilation networks under thermal and mechanical influence such as changes in ventilation parameters, external influences such as changes in temperature, and internal influences such as a fire. The program output can be used to analyze the effects of these influences on the ventilation system. Since its original development by Michigan Technological University for the Bureau of Mines in the 1970s, several updates have been released over the years. In 2012, NIOSH completed a major redesign and restructuring of the program with the release of MFIRE 3.0. MFIRE's outdated FORTRAN programming language was replaced with an object-oriented C++ language and packaged into a dynamic link library (DLL). However, the MFIRE 3.0 release made no attempt to change or improve the fire modeling algorithms inherited from its previous version, MFIRE 2.20. This paper reports on improvements that have been made to the fire modeling capabilities of MFIRE 3.0 since its release. These improvements include the addition of fire source models of the t-squared fire and heat release rate curve data file, the addition of a moving fire source for conveyor belt fire simulations, improvement of the fire location algorithm, and the identification and prediction of smoke rollback phenomena. All the improvements discussed in this paper will be termed as MFIRE 3.1 and released by NIOSH in the near future.

Simulating the response of natural ecosystems and their fire regimes to climatic variability in Alaska.

Treesearch

D. Bachelet; J. Lenihan; R. Neilson; R. Drapek; T. Kittel

2005-01-01

The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 was used to examine climate, fire, and ecosystems interactions in Alaska under historical (1922-1996) and future (1997-2100) climate conditions. Projections show that by the end of the 21st century, 75%-90% of the area simulated as tundra in 1922 is replaced by boreal and temperate forest. From 1922 to 1996, simulation results...

A systematic approach to selecting task relevant neurons.

PubMed

Kahn, Kevin; Saxena, Shreya; Eskandar, Emad; Thakor, Nitish; Schieber, Marc; Gale, John T; Averbeck, Bruno; Eden, Uri; Sarma, Sridevi V

2015-04-30

Since task related neurons cannot be specifically targeted during surgery, a critical decision to make is to select which neurons are task-related when performing data analysis. Including neurons unrelated to the task degrade decoding accuracy and confound neurophysiological results. Traditionally, task-related neurons are selected as those with significant changes in firing rate when a stimulus is applied. However, this assumes that neurons' encoding of stimuli are dominated by their firing rate with little regard to temporal dynamics. This paper proposes a systematic approach for neuron selection, which uses a likelihood ratio test to capture the contribution of stimulus to spiking activity while taking into account task-irrelevant intrinsic dynamics that affect firing rates. This approach is denoted as the model deterioration excluding stimulus (MDES) test. MDES is compared to firing rate selection in four case studies: a simulation, a decoding example, and two neurophysiology examples. The MDES rankings in the simulation match closely with ideal rankings, while firing rate rankings are skewed by task-irrelevant parameters. For decoding, 95% accuracy is achieved using the top 8 MDES-ranked neurons, while the top 12 firing-rate ranked neurons are needed. In the neurophysiological examples, MDES matches published results when firing rates do encode salient stimulus information, and uncovers oscillatory modulations in task-related neurons that are not captured when neurons are selected using firing rates. These case studies illustrate the importance of accounting for intrinsic dynamics when selecting task-related neurons and following the MDES approach accomplishes that. MDES selects neurons that encode task-related information irrespective of these intrinsic dynamics which can bias firing rate based selection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coherent vertical structures in numerical simulations of buoyant plumes from wildland fires

Treesearch

Philip Cunningham; Scott L. Goodrick; M. Yousuff Hussaini; Rodman R. Linn

2005-01-01

The structure and dynamics of buoyant plumes arising from surface-based heat sources in a vertically sheared ambient atmospheric flow are examined via simulations of a three-dimensional, compressible numerical model. Simple circular heat sources and asymmetric elliptical ring heat sources that are representative of wildland fires of moderate intensity are considered....

High-resolution numerical models for smoke transport in plumes from wildland fires

Treesearch

Philip Cunningham; Scott Goodrick

2013-01-01

A high-resolution large-eddy simulation (LES) model is employed to examine the fundamental structure and dynamics of buoyant plumes arising from heat sources representative of wildland fires. Herein we describe several aspects of the mean properties of the simulated plumes. Mean plume trajectories are apparently well described by the traditional two-thirds law for...

Carbon Dioxide Dispersion in the Combustion Integrated Rack Simulated Numerically

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Ming-Shin; Ruff, Gary A.

2004-01-01

When discharged into an International Space Station (ISS) payload rack, a carbon dioxide (CO2) portable fire extinguisher (PFE) must extinguish a fire by decreasing the oxygen in the rack by 50 percent within 60 sec. The length of time needed for this oxygen reduction throughout the rack and the length of time that the CO2 concentration remains high enough to prevent the fire from reigniting is important when determining the effectiveness of the response and postfire procedures. Furthermore, in the absence of gravity, the local flow velocity can make the difference between a fire that spreads rapidly and one that self-extinguishes after ignition. A numerical simulation of the discharge of CO2 from PFE into the Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR) in microgravity was performed to obtain the local velocity and CO2 concentration. The complicated flow field around the PFE nozzle exits was modeled by sources of equivalent mass and momentum flux at a location downstream of the nozzle. The time for the concentration of CO2 to reach a level that would extinguish a fire anywhere in the rack was determined using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), a computational fluid dynamics code developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology specifically to evaluate the development of a fire and smoke transport. The simulation shows that CO2, as well as any smoke and combustion gases produced by a fire, would be discharged into the ISS cabin through the resource utility panel at the bottom of the rack. These simulations will be validated by comparing the results with velocity and CO2 concentration measurements obtained during the fire suppression system verification tests conducted on the CIR in March 2003. Once these numerical simulations are validated, portions of the ISS labs and living areas will be modeled to determine the local flow conditions before, during, and after a fire event. These simulations can yield specific information about how long it takes for smoke and combustion gases produced by a fire to reach a detector location, how large the fire would be when the detector alarms, and the behavior of the fire until it has been extinguished. This new capability could then be used to optimize the location of fire detectors and fire-suppression ports as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of fire suppressants and response strategies. Numerical data collected from these simulations could also be used to develop a virtual reality fire event for crew training and fire safety awareness. This work is funded by NASA's Bioastronautics Initiative, which has the objective of ensuring and enhancing the health, safety, and performance of humans in space. As part of this initiative, the Microgravity Combustion Science Branch at the NASA Glenn Research Center is conducting spacecraft fire safety research to significantly improve fire safety on inhabited spacecraft.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model.

PubMed

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-12-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

PubMed Central

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects. PMID:24455138

An emergency-adaptive routing scheme for wireless sensor networks for building fire hazard monitoring.

PubMed

Zeng, Yuanyuan; Sreenan, Cormac J; Sitanayah, Lanny; Xiong, Naixue; Park, Jong Hyuk; Zheng, Guilin

2011-01-01

Fire hazard monitoring and evacuation for building environments is a novel application area for the deployment of wireless sensor networks. In this context, adaptive routing is essential in order to ensure safe and timely data delivery in building evacuation and fire fighting resource applications. Existing routing mechanisms for wireless sensor networks are not well suited for building fires, especially as they do not consider critical and dynamic network scenarios. In this paper, an emergency-adaptive, real-time and robust routing protocol is presented for emergency situations such as building fire hazard applications. The protocol adapts to handle dynamic emergency scenarios and works well with the routing hole problem. Theoretical analysis and simulation results indicate that our protocol provides a real-time routing mechanism that is well suited for dynamic emergency scenarios in building fires when compared with other related work.

An Emergency-Adaptive Routing Scheme for Wireless Sensor Networks for Building Fire Hazard Monitoring

PubMed Central

Zeng, Yuanyuan; Sreenan, Cormac J.; Sitanayah, Lanny; Xiong, Naixue; Park, Jong Hyuk; Zheng, Guilin

2011-01-01

Fire hazard monitoring and evacuation for building environments is a novel application area for the deployment of wireless sensor networks. In this context, adaptive routing is essential in order to ensure safe and timely data delivery in building evacuation and fire fighting resource applications. Existing routing mechanisms for wireless sensor networks are not well suited for building fires, especially as they do not consider critical and dynamic network scenarios. In this paper, an emergency-adaptive, real-time and robust routing protocol is presented for emergency situations such as building fire hazard applications. The protocol adapts to handle dynamic emergency scenarios and works well with the routing hole problem. Theoretical analysis and simulation results indicate that our protocol provides a real-time routing mechanism that is well suited for dynamic emergency scenarios in building fires when compared with other related work. PMID:22163774

Numerical simulation study on impact of slope on smoke temperature distribution and smoke spread pattern in spiral tunnel fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao; Xie, Wei

2017-04-01

The spiral tunnel arises as a new form of tunnel, with great differences in fire development pattern when compared with traditional straight line tunnel, this paper takes method of numerical simulation, based on computation fluid dynamics theory and fire-turbulence numerical simulation theory, establishing a full-scale spiral tunnel model, and applies CFX simulation software to research full-scale spiral tunnel fire and its ventilation condition. The results indicate that with increasing tunnel slope, high temperature area gradually extends to downstream area, high temperature mainly distributes near fire source area, and symmetrically distributes among the fire center point; With increasing tunnel slope, the highest temperature underneath tunnel arch rises first followed by a downward trend and then rising again, which strengthens chimney effect, and promotes more fresh cold air flow into the tunnel, suppressing fire smoke backflow and simultaneously accelerating fire smoke spread to downstream area; Fire plume presents vertical slender shape with 1% or 3% tunnel slope, and burning flame hits tunnel arch and then extending all around into the ceiling jet flow, when tunnel slope increases to 5% or 7%, fire plume cross section grows bigger and wider with unstable burning flame swaying in all directions, integrally incline to fire downstream.

Capabilities of current wildfire models when simulating topographical flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kochanski, A.; Jenkins, M.; Krueger, S. K.; McDermott, R.; Mell, W.

2009-12-01

Accurate predictions of the growth, spread and suppression of wild fires rely heavily on the correct prediction of the local wind conditions and the interactions between the fire and the local ambient airflow. Resolving local flows, often strongly affected by topographical features like hills, canyons and ridges, is a prerequisite for accurate simulation and prediction of fire behaviors. In this study, we present the results of high-resolution numerical simulations of the flow over a smooth hill, performed using (1) the NIST WFDS (WUI or Wildland-Urban-Interface version of the FDS or Fire Dynamic Simulator), and (2) the LES version of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-LES) model. The WFDS model is in the initial stages of development for application to wind flow and fire spread over complex terrain. The focus of the talk is to assess how well simple topographical flow is represented by WRF-LES and the current version of WFDS. If sufficient progress has been made prior to the meeting then the importance of the discrepancies between the predicted and measured winds, in terms of simulated fire behavior, will be examined.

Towards Data-Driven Simulations of Wildfire Spread using Ensemble-based Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochoux, M. C.; Bart, J.; Ricci, S. M.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.; Duchaine, F.; Morel, T.

2012-12-01

Real-time predictions of a propagating wildfire remain a challenging task because the problem involves both multi-physics and multi-scales. The propagation speed of wildfires, also called the rate of spread (ROS), is indeed determined by complex interactions between pyrolysis, combustion and flow dynamics, atmospheric dynamics occurring at vegetation, topographical and meteorological scales. Current operational fire spread models are mainly based on a semi-empirical parameterization of the ROS in terms of vegetation, topographical and meteorological properties. For the fire spread simulation to be predictive and compatible with operational applications, the uncertainty on the ROS model should be reduced. As recent progress made in remote sensing technology provides new ways to monitor the fire front position, a promising approach to overcome the difficulties found in wildfire spread simulations is to integrate fire modeling and fire sensing technologies using data assimilation (DA). For this purpose we have developed a prototype data-driven wildfire spread simulator in order to provide optimal estimates of poorly known model parameters [*]. The data-driven simulation capability is adapted for more realistic wildfire spread : it considers a regional-scale fire spread model that is informed by observations of the fire front location. An Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm (EnKF) based on a parallel computing platform (OpenPALM) was implemented in order to perform a multi-parameter sequential estimation where wind magnitude and direction are in addition to vegetation properties (see attached figure). The EnKF algorithm shows its good ability to track a small-scale grassland fire experiment and ensures a good accounting for the sensitivity of the simulation outcomes to the control parameters. As a conclusion, it was shown that data assimilation is a promising approach to more accurately forecast time-varying wildfire spread conditions as new airborne-like observations of the fire front location get available. [*] Rochoux, M.C., Delmotte, B., Cuenot, B., Ricci, S., and Trouvé, A. (2012) "Regional-scale simulations of wildland fire spread informed by real-time flame front observations", Proc. Combust. Inst., 34, in press http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proci.2012.06.090 EnKF-based tracking of small-scale grassland fire experiment, with estimation of wind and fuel parameters.

Importance of vegetation distribution for future carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, A.; Xia, J.; Arneth, A.; Luo, Y.; Smith, B.

2015-12-01

Projections of future terrestrial carbon uptake vary greatly between simulations. Net primary production (NPP), wild fires, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts) and soil decomposition constitute the main processes governing the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate. While primary production and soil respiration are relatively well studied and implemented in all global ecosystem models used to project the future land sink of CO2, vegetation dynamics are less studied and not always represented in global models. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality and the associated turnover and proven skill in predicting vegetation distribution and succession. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing at year 2085. We exchanged carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations and investigate the changes predicted by the emulator. This method allowed us to partition the entire ensemble carbon uptake uncertainty into individual processes. We found that NPP, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33% respectively of uncertainties in modeled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation dynamics was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by shifts in vegetation distribution, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska

Treesearch

Q. Zhuang; A. D. McGuire; K. P. O' Neill; J. W. Harden; V. E. Romanovsky; J. Yarie

2003-01-01

In this study, the dynamics of soil thermal, hydrologic, and ecosystem processes were coupled to project how the carbon budgets of boreal forests will respond to changes in atmospheric CO2, climate, and fire disturbance. The ability of the model to simulate gross primary production and ecosystem respiration was verified for a mature black spruce...

Analysis of the Influence of Construction Insulation Systems on Public Safety in China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Guowei; Zhu, Guoqing; Zhao, Guoxiang

2016-01-01

With the Government of China’s proposed Energy Efficiency Regulations (GB40411-2007), the implementation of external insulation systems will be mandatory in China. The frequent external insulation system fires cause huge numbers of casualties and extensive property damage and have rapidly become a new hot issue in construction evacuation safety in China. This study attempts to reconstruct an actual fire scene and propose a quantitative risk assessment method for upward insulation system fires using thermal analysis tests and large eddy simulations (using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software). Firstly, the pyrolysis and combustion characteristics of Extruded polystyrene board (XPS panel), such as ignition temperature, combustion heat, limiting oxygen index, thermogravimetric analysis and thermal radiation analysis were studied experimentally. Based on these experimental data, large eddy simulation was then applied to reconstruct insulation system fires. The results show that upward insulation system fires could be accurately reconstructed by using thermal analysis test and large eddy simulation. The spread of insulation material system fires in the vertical direction is faster than that in the horizontal direction. Moreover, we also find that there is a possibility of flashover in enclosures caused by insulation system fires as the smoke temperature exceeds 600 °C. The simulation methods and experimental results obtained in this paper could provide valuable references for fire evacuation, hazard assessment and fire resistant construction design studies. PMID:27589774

Analysis of the Influence of Construction Insulation Systems on Public Safety in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Guowei; Zhu, Guoqing; Zhao, Guoxiang

2016-08-30

With the Government of China's proposed Energy Efficiency Regulations (GB40411-2007), the implementation of external insulation systems will be mandatory in China. The frequent external insulation system fires cause huge numbers of casualties and extensive property damage and have rapidly become a new hot issue in construction evacuation safety in China. This study attempts to reconstruct an actual fire scene and propose a quantitative risk assessment method for upward insulation system fires using thermal analysis tests and large eddy simulations (using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software). Firstly, the pyrolysis and combustion characteristics of Extruded polystyrene board (XPS panel), such as ignition temperature, combustion heat, limiting oxygen index, thermogravimetric analysis and thermal radiation analysis were studied experimentally. Based on these experimental data, large eddy simulation was then applied to reconstruct insulation system fires. The results show that upward insulation system fires could be accurately reconstructed by using thermal analysis test and large eddy simulation. The spread of insulation material system fires in the vertical direction is faster than that in the horizontal direction. Moreover, we also find that there is a possibility of flashover in enclosures caused by insulation system fires as the smoke temperature exceeds 600 °C. The simulation methods and experimental results obtained in this paper could provide valuable references for fire evacuation, hazard assessment and fire resistant construction design studies.

Effects of biotic feedback and harvest management on boreal forest fire activity under climate change.

PubMed

Krawchuk, Meg A; Cumming, Steve G

2011-01-01

Predictions of future fire activity over Canada's boreal forests have primarily been generated from climate data following assumptions that direct effects of weather will stand alone in contributing to changes in burning. However, this assumption needs explicit testing. First, areas recently burned can be less likely to burn again in the near term, and this endogenous regulation suggests the potential for self-limiting, negative biotic feedback to regional climate-driven increases in fire. Second, forest harvest is ongoing, and resulting changes in vegetation structure have been shown to affect fire activity. Consequently, we tested the assumption that fire activity will be driven by changes in fire weather without regulation by biotic feedback or regional harvest-driven changes in vegetation structure in the mixedwood boreal forest of Alberta, Canada, using a simulation experiment that includes the interaction of fire, stand dynamics, climate change, and clear cut harvest management. We found that climate change projected with fire weather indices calculated from the Canadian Regional Climate Model increased fire activity, as expected, and our simulations established evidence that the magnitude of regional increase in fire was sufficient to generate negative feedback to subsequent fire activity. We illustrate a 39% (1.39-fold) increase in fire initiation and 47% (1.47-fold) increase in area burned when climate and stand dynamics were included in simulations, yet 48% (1.48-fold) and 61% (1.61-fold) increases, respectively, when climate was considered alone. Thus, although biotic feedbacks reduced burned area estimates in important ways, they were secondary to the direct effect of climate on fire. We then show that ongoing harvest management in this region changed landscape composition in a way that led to reduced fire activity, even in the context of climate change. Although forest harvesting resulted in decreased regional fire activity when compared to unharvested conditions, forest composition and age structure was shifted substantially, illustrating a trade-off between management goals to minimize fire and conservation goals to emulate natural disturbance.

Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

2008-12-01

Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from wildfires, agricultural and woodfuel burning will be quantified and drivers identified. Future projections of climate and land use change are applied to the model to investigate joint effects on future changes in fire, deforestation and vegetation dynamics in the Amazon basin.

Study on the Fire Damage Characteristics of the New Qidaoliang Highway Tunnel: Field Investigation with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Back Analysis

PubMed Central

Lai, Hongpeng; Wang, Shuyong; Xie, Yongli

2016-01-01

In the New Qidaoliang Tunnel (China), a rear-end collision of two tanker trunks caused a fire. To understand the damage characteristics of the tunnel lining structure, in situ investigation was performed. The results show that the fire in the tunnel induced spallation of tunnel lining concrete covering 856 m3; the length of road surface damage reached 650 m; the sectional area had a maximum 4% increase, and the mechanical and electrical facilities were severely damaged. The maximum area loss happened at the fire spot with maximum observed concrete spallation up to a thickness of 35.4 cm. The strength of vault and side wall concrete near the fire source was significantly reduced. The loss of concrete strength of the side wall near the inner surface of tunnel was larger than that near the surrounding rock. In order to perform back analysis of the effect of thermal load on lining structure, simplified numerical simulation using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was also performed, repeating the fire scenario. The simulated results showed that from the fire breaking out to the point of becoming steady, the tunnel experienced processes of small-scale warming, swirl around fire, backflow, and longitudinal turbulent flow. The influence range of the tunnel internal temperature on the longitudinal downstream was far greater than on the upstream, while the high temperature upstream and downstream of the transverse fire source mainly centered on the vault or the higher vault waist. The temperature of each part of the tunnel near the fire source had no obvious stratification phenomenon. The temperature of the vault lining upstream and downstream near the fire source was the highest. The numerical simulation is found to be in good agreement with the field observations. PMID:27754455

Study on the Fire Damage Characteristics of the New Qidaoliang Highway Tunnel: Field Investigation with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Back Analysis.

PubMed

Lai, Hongpeng; Wang, Shuyong; Xie, Yongli

2016-10-15

In the New Qidaoliang Tunnel (China), a rear-end collision of two tanker trunks caused a fire. To understand the damage characteristics of the tunnel lining structure, in situ investigation was performed. The results show that the fire in the tunnel induced spallation of tunnel lining concrete covering 856 m³; the length of road surface damage reached 650 m; the sectional area had a maximum 4% increase, and the mechanical and electrical facilities were severely damaged. The maximum area loss happened at the fire spot with maximum observed concrete spallation up to a thickness of 35.4 cm. The strength of vault and side wall concrete near the fire source was significantly reduced. The loss of concrete strength of the side wall near the inner surface of tunnel was larger than that near the surrounding rock. In order to perform back analysis of the effect of thermal load on lining structure, simplified numerical simulation using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was also performed, repeating the fire scenario. The simulated results showed that from the fire breaking out to the point of becoming steady, the tunnel experienced processes of small-scale warming, swirl around fire, backflow, and longitudinal turbulent flow. The influence range of the tunnel internal temperature on the longitudinal downstream was far greater than on the upstream, while the high temperature upstream and downstream of the transverse fire source mainly centered on the vault or the higher vault waist. The temperature of each part of the tunnel near the fire source had no obvious stratification phenomenon. The temperature of the vault lining upstream and downstream near the fire source was the highest. The numerical simulation is found to be in good agreement with the field observations.

Simplicity and efficiency of integrate-and-fire neuron models.

PubMed

Plesser, Hans E; Diesmann, Markus

2009-02-01

Lovelace and Cios (2008) recently proposed a very simple spiking neuron (VSSN) model for simulations of large neuronal networks as an efficient replacement for the integrate-and-fire neuron model. We argue that the VSSN model falls behind key advances in neuronal network modeling over the past 20 years, in particular, techniques that permit simulators to compute the state of the neuron without repeated summation over the history of input spikes and to integrate the subthreshold dynamics exactly. State-of-the-art solvers for networks of integrate-and-fire model neurons are substantially more efficient than the VSSN simulator and allow routine simulations of networks of some 10(5) neurons and 10(9) connections on moderate computer clusters.

The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire.

PubMed

Bond, W J; Woodward, F I; Midgley, G F

2005-02-01

This paper is the first global study of the extent to which fire determines global vegetation patterns by preventing ecosystems from achieving the potential height, biomass and dominant functional types expected under the ambient climate (climate potential). To determine climate potential, we simulated vegetation without fire using a dynamic global-vegetation model. Model results were tested against fire exclusion studies from different parts of the world. Simulated dominant growth forms and tree cover were compared with satellite-derived land- and tree-cover maps. Simulations were generally consistent with results of fire exclusion studies in southern Africa and elsewhere. Comparison of global 'fire off' simulations with landcover and treecover maps show that vast areas of humid C(4) grasslands and savannas, especially in South America and Africa, have the climate potential to form forests. These are the most frequently burnt ecosystems in the world. Without fire, closed forests would double from 27% to 56% of vegetated grid cells, mostly at the expense of C(4) plants but also of C(3) shrubs and grasses in cooler climates. C(4) grasses began spreading 6-8 Ma, long before human influence on fire regimes. Our results suggest that fire was a major factor in their spread into forested regions, splitting biotas into fire tolerant and intolerant taxa.

New tendencies in wildland fire simulation for understanding fire phenomena: An overview of the WFDS system capabilities in Mediterranean ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, E.; Tarragó, D.; Planas, E.

2012-04-01

Wildfire theoretical modeling endeavors predicting fire behavior characteristics, such as the rate of spread, the flames geometry and the energy released by the fire front by applying the physics and the chemistry laws that govern fire phenomena. Its ultimate aim is to help fire managers to improve fire prevention and suppression and hence reducing damage to population and protecting ecosystems. WFDS is a 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of a fire-driven flow. It is particularly appropriate for predicting the fire behaviour burning through the wildland-urban interface, since it is able to predict the fire behaviour in the intermix of vegetative and structural fuels that comprise the wildland urban interface. This model is not suitable for operational fire management yet due to computational costs constrains, but given the fact that it is open-source and that it has a detailed description of the fuels and of the combustion and heat transfer mechanisms it is currently a suitable system for research purposes. In this paper we present the most important characteristics of the WFDS simulation tool in terms of the models implemented, the input information required and the outputs that the simulator gives useful for understanding fire phenomena. We briefly discuss its advantages and opportunities through some simulation exercises of Mediterranean ecosystems.

Human impact on wildfires varies between regions and with vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasslop, Gitta; Kloster, Silvia

2017-11-01

We assess the influence of humans on burned area simulated with a dynamic global vegetation model. The human impact in the model is based on population density and cropland fraction, which were identified as important drivers of burned area in analyses of global datasets, and are commonly used in global models. After an evaluation of the sensitivity to these two variables we extend the model by including an additional effect of the cropland fraction on the fire duration. The general pattern of human influence is similar in both model versions: the strongest human impact is found in regions with intermediate productivity, where fire occurrence is not limited by fuel load or climatic conditions. Human effects in the model increases burned area in the tropics, while in temperate regions burned area is reduced. While the population density is similar on average for the tropical and temperate regions, the cropland fraction is higher in temperate regions, and leads to a strong suppression of fire. The model shows a low human impact in the boreal region, where both population density and cropland fraction is very low and the climatic conditions, as well as the vegetation productivity limit fire. Previous studies attributed a decrease in fire activity found in global charcoal datasets to human activity. This is confirmed by our simulations, which only show a decrease in burned area when the human influence on fire is accounted for, and not with only natural effects on fires. We assess how the vegetation-fire feedback influences the results, by comparing simulations with dynamic vegetation biogeography to simulations with prescribed vegetation. The vegetation-fire feedback increases the human impact on burned area by 10% for present day conditions. These results emphasize that projections of burned area need to account for the interactions between fire, climate, vegetation and humans.

Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; environmental consequences fact sheet 09: Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS)

Treesearch

Elizabeth Reinhardt

2005-01-01

FFE-FVS is a model linking stand development, fuel dynamics, fire behavior and fire effects. It allows comparison of mid- to long-term effects of management alternatives including harvest, mechanical fuel treatment, prescribed fire, salvage, and no action. This fact sheet identifies the intended users and uses, required inputs, what the model does, and tells the user...

Simulation of Long-Term Landscape-Level Fuel Treatment Effects on Large Wildfires

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Rob C. Seli; Charles W. McHugh; Alan A. Ager; Berni Bahro; James K. Agee

2006-01-01

A simulation system was developed to explore how fuel treatments placed in random and optimal spatial patterns affect the growth and behavior of large fires when implemented at different rates over the course of five decades. The system consists of a forest/fuel dynamics simulation module (FVS), logic for deriving fuel model dynamics from FVS output, a spatial fuel...

Simulation of Neural Firing Dynamics: A Student Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kletsky, E. J.

This paper describes a student project in digital simulation techniques that is part of a graduate systems analysis course entitled Biosimulation. The students chose different simulation techniques to solve a problem related to the neuron model. (MLH)

Forest dynamics in Oregon landscapes: Evaluation and application of an individual-based model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; McKane, R.B.; Burdick, C.A.

2007-01-01

The FORCLIM model of forest dynamics was tested against field survey data for its ability to simulate basal area and composition of old forests across broad climatic gradients in western Oregon, USA. The model was also tested for its ability to capture successional trends in ecoregions of the west Cascade Range. It was then applied to simulate present and future (1990-2050) forest landscape dynamics of a watershed in the west Cascades. Various regimes of climate change and harvesting in the watershed were considered in the landscape application. The model was able to capture much of the variation in forest basal area and composition in western Oregon even though temperature and precipitation were the only inputs that were varied among simulated sites. The measured decline in total basal area from tall coastal forests eastward to interior steppe was matched by simulations. Changes in simulated forest dominants also approximated those in the actual data. Simulated abundances of a few minor species did not match actual abundances, however. Subsequent projections of climate change and harvest effects in a west Cascades landscape indicated no change in forest dominance as of 2050. Yet, climate-driven shifts in the distributions of some species were projected. The simulation of both stand-replacing and partial-stand disturbances across western Oregon improved agreement between simulated and actual data. Simulations with fire as an agent of partial disturbance suggested that frequent fires of low severity can alter forest composition and structure as much or more than severe fires at historic frequencies. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Investigating dynamic underground coal fires by means of numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessling, S.; Kessels, W.; Schmidt, M.; Krause, U.

2008-01-01

Uncontrolled burning or smoldering of coal seams, otherwise known as coal fires, represents a worldwide natural hazard. Efficient application of fire-fighting strategies and prevention of mining hazards require that the temporal evolution of fire propagation can be sufficiently precise predicted. A promising approach for the investigation of the temporal evolution is the numerical simulation of involved physical and chemical processes. In the context of the Sino-German Research Initiative `Innovative Technologies for Detection, Extinction and Prevention of Coal Fires in North China,' a numerical model has been developed for simulating underground coal fires at large scales. The objective of such modelling is to investigate observables, like the fire propagation rate, with respect to the thermal and hydraulic parameters of adjacent rock. In the model, hydraulic, thermal and chemical processes are accounted for, with the last process complemented by laboratory experiments. Numerically, one key challenge in modelling coal fires is to circumvent the small time steps resulting from the resolution of fast reaction kinetics at high temperatures. In our model, this problem is solved by means of an `operator-splitting' approach, in which transport and reactive processes of oxygen are independently calculated. At high temperatures, operator-splitting has the decisive advantage of allowing the global time step to be chosen according to oxygen transport, so that time-consuming simulation through the calculation of fast reaction kinetics is avoided. Also in this model, because oxygen distribution within a coal fire has been shown to remain constant over long periods, an additional extrapolation algorithm for the coal concentration has been applied. In this paper, we demonstrate that the operator-splitting approach is particularly suitable for investigating the influence of hydraulic parameters of adjacent rocks on coal fire propagation. A study shows that dynamic propagation strongly depends on permeability variations. For the assumed model, no fire exists for permeabilities k < 10-10m2, whereas the fire propagation velocity ranges between 340ma-1 for k = 10-8m2, and drops to lower than 3ma-1 for k = 5 × 10-10m2. Additionally, strong temperature variations are observed for the permeability range 5 × 10-10m2 < k < 10-8m2.

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balshi, M. S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Duffy, P.; Flannigan, M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, J.

2009-01-01

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO2fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO2 fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post-fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.

Understanding the role of wildland fire, insects, and disease in predicting climate change effects on whitebark pine: Simulating vegetation, disturbance, and climate dynamics in a northern Rocky Mountain landscape

Treesearch

Robert Keane; Rachel Loehman

2010-01-01

Climate changes are projected to profoundly influence vegetation patterns and community compositions, either directly through increased species mortality and shifts in species distributions, or indirectly through disturbance dynamics such as increased wildfire activity and extent, shifting fire regimes, and pathogenesis. High-elevation landscapes have been shown to be...

Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D

2017-01-01

Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010-2019), mid (2050-2059), and late (2090-2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8-48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink.

Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010–2019), mid (2050–2059), and late (2090–2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8–48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink. PMID:28046079

Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

2013-01-01

Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m−2 yr−1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m−2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m−2). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon-stock evolution after fire. This makes the model suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role in the ecosystem carbon balance.

Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S. L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

2013-12-01

Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m-2 yr-1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m-2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m-2). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon-stock evolution after fire. This makes the model suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role in the ecosystem carbon balance.

Simulated response of conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change at different levels of fire suppression, CO2 emission rate, and growth response to CO2

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson; Raymond Drapek

2008-01-01

A modeling experiment was designed to investigate the impact of fire management, CO2 emission rate, and the growth response to CO2 on the response of ecosystems in the conterminous United States to climate scenarios produced by three different general circulation models (GCMs) as simulated by the MCl Dynamic General...

Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Thornton, P. E.; Hoffman, F. M.; Levis, S.; Lawrence, P. J.; Feddema, J. J.; Oleson, K. W.; Lawrence, D. M.

2010-01-01

Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLM-CN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite based estimates in terms of magnitude, spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Longterm trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer (2005). We obtain substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997-2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000-2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we simulated a slight downward trend in global fire emissions, which is explained by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and partly by increasing fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend in the last three decades of the 20th century caused by climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSO induced drought conditions.

Dynamics and Physiological Roles of Stochastic Firing Patterns Near Bifurcation Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Bing; Gu, Huaguang

2017-06-01

Different stochastic neural firing patterns or rhythms that appeared near polarization or depolarization resting states were observed in biological experiments on three nervous systems, and closely matched those simulated near bifurcation points between stable equilibrium point and limit cycle in a theoretical model with noise. The distinct dynamics of spike trains and interspike interval histogram (ISIH) of these stochastic rhythms were identified and found to build a relationship to the coexisting behaviors or fixed firing frequency of four different types of bifurcations. Furthermore, noise evokes coherence resonances near bifurcation points and plays important roles in enhancing information. The stochastic rhythms corresponding to Hopf bifurcation points with fixed firing frequency exhibited stronger coherence degree and a sharper peak in the power spectrum of the spike trains than those corresponding to saddle-node bifurcation points without fixed firing frequency. Moreover, the stochastic firing patterns changed to a depolarization resting state as the extracellular potassium concentration increased for the injured nerve fiber related to pathological pain or static blood pressure level increased for aortic depressor nerve fiber, and firing frequency decreased, which were different from the physiological viewpoint that firing frequency increased with increasing pressure level or potassium concentration. This shows that rhythms or firing patterns can reflect pressure or ion concentration information related to pathological pain information. Our results present the dynamics of stochastic firing patterns near bifurcation points, which are helpful for the identification of both dynamics and physiological roles of complex neural firing patterns or rhythms, and the roles of noise.

Time Accurate CFD Simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle in the Transonic Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rojahn, Josh; Ruf, Joe

2011-01-01

Significant asymmetries in the fluid dynamics were calculated for some cases in the CFD simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle through its abort trajectories. The CFD simulations were performed steady state and in three dimensions with symmetric geometries, no freestream sideslip angle, and motors firing. The trajectory points at issue were in the transonic regime, at 0 and +/- 5 angles of attack with the Abort Motors with and without the Attitude Control Motors (ACM) firing. In some of the cases the asymmetric fluid dynamics resulted in aerodynamic side forces that were large enough that would overcome the control authority of the ACMs. MSFC's Fluid Dynamics Group supported the investigation into the cause of the flow asymmetries with time accurate CFD simulations, utilizing a hybrid RANS-LES turbulence model. The results show that the flow over the vehicle and the subsequent interaction with the AB and ACM motor plumes were unsteady. The resulting instantaneous aerodynamic forces were oscillatory with fairly large magnitudes. Time averaged aerodynamic forces were essentially symmetric.

Ancient village fire escape path planning based on improved ant colony algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Wei; Cao, Kang; Hu, QianChuan

2017-06-01

The roadways are narrow and perplexing in ancient villages, it brings challenges and difficulties for people to choose route to escape when a fire occurs. In this paper, a fire escape path planning method based on ant colony algorithm is presented according to the problem. The factors in the fire environment which influence the escape speed is introduced to improve the heuristic function of the algorithm, optimal transfer strategy, and adjustment pheromone volatile factor to improve pheromone update strategy adaptively, improve its dynamic search ability and search speed. Through simulation, the dynamic adjustment of the optimal escape path is obtained, and the method is proved to be feasible.

Consequence modeling using the fire dynamics simulator.

PubMed

Ryder, Noah L; Sutula, Jason A; Schemel, Christopher F; Hamer, Andrew J; Van Brunt, Vincent

2004-11-11

The use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and in particular Large Eddy Simulation (LES) codes to model fires provides an efficient tool for the prediction of large-scale effects that include plume characteristics, combustion product dispersion, and heat effects to adjacent objects. This paper illustrates the strengths of the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), an LES code developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), through several small and large-scale validation runs and process safety applications. The paper presents two fire experiments--a small room fire and a large (15 m diameter) pool fire. The model results are compared to experimental data and demonstrate good agreement between the models and data. The validation work is then extended to demonstrate applicability to process safety concerns by detailing a model of a tank farm fire and a model of the ignition of a gaseous fuel in a confined space. In this simulation, a room was filled with propane, given time to disperse, and was then ignited. The model yields accurate results of the dispersion of the gas throughout the space. This information can be used to determine flammability and explosive limits in a space and can be used in subsequent models to determine the pressure and temperature waves that would result from an explosion. The model dispersion results were compared to an experiment performed by Factory Mutual. Using the above examples, this paper will demonstrate that FDS is ideally suited to build realistic models of process geometries in which large scale explosion and fire failure risks can be evaluated with several distinct advantages over more traditional CFD codes. Namely transient solutions to fire and explosion growth can be produced with less sophisticated hardware (lower cost) than needed for traditional CFD codes (PC type computer verses UNIX workstation) and can be solved for longer time histories (on the order of hundreds of seconds of computed time) with minimal computer resources and length of model run. Additionally results that are produced can be analyzed, viewed, and tabulated during and following a model run within a PC environment. There are some tradeoffs, however, as rapid computations in PC's may require a sacrifice in the grid resolution or in the sub-grid modeling, depending on the size of the geometry modeled.

Assessing Potential Future Carbon Dynamics with Climate Change and Fire Management in a Mountainous Landscape on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, R. S.

2010-12-01

Forests of the mountainous landscapes of the maritime Pacific Northwestern USA may have high carbon sequestration potential via their high productivity and moderate to infrequent fire regimes. With climate change, there may be shifts in incidence and severity of fire, especially in the drier areas of the region, via changes to forest productivity and hydrology, and consequent effects to C sequestration and forest structure. To explore this issue, I assessed potential effects of fire management (little fire suppression/wildland fire management/highly effective fire suppression) under two climate change scenarios on future C sequestration dynamics (amounts and spatial pattern) in Olympic National Park, WA, over a 500-year simulation period. I used the simulation platform FireBGCv2, which contains a mechanistic, individual tree succession model, a spatially explicit climate-based biophysical model that uses daily weather data, and a spatially explicit fire model incorporating ignition, spread, and effects on ecosystem components. C sequestration patterns varied over time and spatial and temporal patterns differed somewhat depending on the climate change scenario applied and the fire management methods employed. Under the more extreme climate change scenario with little fire suppression, fires were most frequent and severe and C sequestration decreased. General trends were similar under the more moderate climate change scenario, as compared to current climate, but spatial patterns differed. Both climate change scenarios under highly effective fire suppression showed about 50% of starting total C after the initial transition phase, whereas with 10% fire suppression both scenarios exhibited about 10% of starting amounts. Areas of the landscape that served as refugia for older forest under increasing frequency of high severity fire were also hotspots for C sequestration in a landscape experiencing increasing frequency of disturbance with climate change.

Wildfire simulation using LES with synthetic-velocity SGS models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonough, J. M.; Tang, Tingting

2016-11-01

Wildland fires are becoming more prevalent and intense worldwide as climate change leads to warmer, drier conditions; and large-eddy simulation (LES) is receiving increasing attention for fire spread predictions as computing power continues to improve (see, e.g.,). We report results from wildfire simulations over general terrain employing implicit LES for solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes (N.-S.) and thermal energy equations with Boussinesq approximation, altered with Darcy, Forchheimer and Brinkman extensions, to represent forested regions as porous media with varying (in both space and time) porosity and permeability. We focus on subgrid-scale (SGS) behaviors computed with a synthetic-velocity model, a discrete dynamical system, based on the poor man's N.-S. equations and investigate the ability of this model to produce fire whirls (tornadoes of fire) at the (unresolved) SGS level. Professor, Mechanical Engineering and Mathematics.

WindWizard: A New Tool for Fire Management Decision Support

Treesearch

Bret W. Butler; Mark Finney; Larry Bradshaw; Jason Forthofer; Chuck McHugh; Rick Stratton; Dan Jimenez

2006-01-01

A new software tool has been developed to simulate surface wind speed and direction at the 100m to 300 m scale. This tool is useful when trying to estimate fire behavior in mountainous terrain. It is based on widely used computational fluid dynamics technology and has been tested against measured wind flows. In recent years it has been used to support fire management...

Interactions between soil thermal and hydrological dynamics in the response of Alaska ecosystems to fire disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yi, Shuhua; McGuire, A. David; Harden, Jennifer; Kasischke, Eric; Manies, Kristen L.; Hinzman, Larry; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Randerson, J.; Liu, Heping; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Marchenko, Sergey S.; Kim, Yongwon

2009-01-01

Soil temperature and moisture are important factors that control many ecosystem processes. However, interactions between soil thermal and hydrological processes are not adequately understood in cold regions, where the frozen soil, fire disturbance, and soil drainage play important roles in controlling interactions among these processes. These interactions were investigated with a new ecosystem model framework, the dynamic organic soil version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, that incorporates an efficient and stable numerical scheme for simulating soil thermal and hydrological dynamics within soil profiles that contain a live moss horizon, fibrous and amorphous organic horizons, and mineral soil horizons. The performance of the model was evaluated for a tundra burn site that had both preburn and postburn measurements, two black spruce fire chronosequences (representing space-for-time substitutions in well and intermediately drained conditions), and a poorly drained black spruce site. Although space-for-time substitutions present challenges in model-data comparison, the model demonstrates substantial ability in simulating the dynamics of evapotranspiration, soil temperature, active layer depth, soil moisture, and water table depth in response to both climate variability and fire disturbance. Several differences between model simulations and field measurements identified key challenges for evaluating/improving model performance that include (1) proper representation of discrepancies between air temperature and ground surface temperature; (2) minimization of precipitation biases in the driving data sets; (3) improvement of the measurement accuracy of soil moisture in surface organic horizons; and (4) proper specification of organic horizon depth/properties, and soil thermal conductivity.

On the relative role of fire and rainfall in determining vegetation patterns in tropical savannas: a simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, Allan; Fisher, Rosie

2010-05-01

Tropical savannas cover 18% of the world's land surface and are amongst the most productive terrestrial systems in the world. They comprise 15% of the total terrestrial carbon stock, with an estimated mean net primary productivity (NPP) of 7.2 tCha-1yr-1 or two thirds of NPP in tropical forests. Tropical savannas are the most frequently burnt biome, with fire return intervals in highly productive areas being typically 1-2 years. Fires shape vegetation species composition, tree to grass ratios and nutrient redistribution, as well as the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of trace gases, momentum and radiative energy. Tropical savannas are a major source of emissions, contributing 38 % of total annual CO2 from biomass burning, 30% CO, 19 % CH4 and 59 % NOx. Climatically, they occur in regions subject to a strongly seasonal ‘wet-dry' regime, usually under monsoonal control from the movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone. In general, rainfall during the prior wet season(s) determines the amount of grass fuel available for burning while the length of the dry season influences fuel moisture content. Rainfall in tropical savannas exhibits high inter-annual variability, and under future climate change, is projected to change significantly in much of Africa, South America and northern Australia. Process-based simulation models of fire-vegetation dynamics and feedbacks are critical for determining the impacts of wildfires under projected future climate change on i) ecosystem structure and function, and ii) emissions of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. A new mechanistic global fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) has been designed to overcome many of the limitations in existing fire models set within Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). SPITFIRE has been applied in coupled mode globally and southern Africa, both as part of the LPJ DGVM. It has also been driven with MODIS burnt area data applied to sub-Saharan Africa, while coupled to the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model. Recently, SPIFTIRE has been coupled to the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, which simulates global vegetation dynamics as part of the new land surface scheme JULES (Joint UK Environment Simulator) within the QUEST Earth System Model (http://www.quest-esm.ac.uk/). This study forms part of on-going work to further improve and test the ability of JULES to accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle and land-atmosphere exchanges under different climates. Using the JULES (ED-SPITFIRE) model driven by observed climate (1901-2002), and focusing on large-scale rainfall gradients in the tropical savannas of west Africa, the Northern Territory (Australia) and central-southern Brazil, this study assesses: i) simulated versus observed vegetation dynamics and distributions, and ii) the relative importance of fire versus rainfall in determining vegetation patterns. A sensitivity analysis approach was used.

Using the Networked Fire Chief for ego-depletion research: measuring dynamic decision-making effort and performance.

PubMed

Barber, Larissa K; Smit, Brandon W

2014-01-01

This study replicated ego-depletion predictions from the self-control literature in a computer simulation task that requires ongoing decision-making in relation to constantly changing environmental information: the Network Fire Chief (NFC). Ego-depletion led to decreased self-regulatory effort, but not performance, on the NFC task. These effects were also buffered by task enjoyment so that individuals who enjoyed the dynamic decision-making task did not experience ego-depletion effects. These findings confirm that past ego-depletion effects on decision-making are not limited to static or isolated decision-making tasks and can be extended to dynamic, naturalistic decision-making processes more common to naturalistic settings. Furthermore, the NFC simulation provides a methodological mechanism for independently measuring effort and performance when studying ego-depletion.

DSMC simulations of the Shuttle Plume Impingement Flight EXperiment(SPIFEX)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, Benedicte; Lumpkin, Forrest

2017-01-01

During orbital maneuvers and proximity operations, a spacecraft fires its thrusters inducing plume impingement loads, heating and contamination to itself and to any other nearby spacecraft. These thruster firings are generally modeled using a combination of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and DSMC simulations. The Shuttle Plume Impingement Flight EXperiment(SPIFEX) produced data that can be compared to a high fidelity simulation. Due to the size of the Shuttle thrusters this problem was too resource intensive to be solved with DSMC when the experiment flew in 1994.

Impact of Partial Time Delay on Temporal Dynamics of Watts-Strogatz Small-World Neuronal Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Hao; Sun, Xiaojuan

2017-06-01

In this paper, we mainly discuss effects of partial time delay on temporal dynamics of Watts-Strogatz (WS) small-world neuronal networks by controlling two parameters. One is the time delay τ and the other is the probability of partial time delay pdelay. Temporal dynamics of WS small-world neuronal networks are discussed with the aid of temporal coherence and mean firing rate. With the obtained simulation results, it is revealed that for small time delay τ, the probability pdelay could weaken temporal coherence and increase mean firing rate of neuronal networks, which indicates that it could improve neuronal firings of the neuronal networks while destroying firing regularity. For large time delay τ, temporal coherence and mean firing rate do not have great changes with respect to pdelay. Time delay τ always has great influence on both temporal coherence and mean firing rate no matter what is the value of pdelay. Moreover, with the analysis of spike trains and histograms of interspike intervals of neurons inside neuronal networks, it is found that the effects of partial time delays on temporal coherence and mean firing rate could be the result of locking between the period of neuronal firing activities and the value of time delay τ. In brief, partial time delay could have great influence on temporal dynamics of the neuronal networks.

Simulating the impacts of southern pine beetle and fire on the dynamics of xerophytic pine landscapes in the southern Appalachians

Treesearch

J.D. Waldron; C.W. Lafon; R.N. Coulson; D.M. Cairns; M.D. Tchakerian; A. Birt; K.D. Klepzig

2007-01-01

Question: Can fire be used to maintain Yellow pine (Pinus subgenus Diploxylon) stands disturbed by periodic outbreaks of southern pine beetle?Location: Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.Methods: We used LANDIS to model vegetation disturbance and succession...

Modeling the effects of fire severity and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across the landscape in interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Genet, H.; McGuire, Anthony David; Barrett, K.; Breen, A.; Euskirchen, E.S.; Johnstone, J.F.; Kasischke, E.S.; Melvin, A.M.; Bennett, A.; Mack, M.C.; Rupp, T.S.; Schuur, A.E.G.; Turetsky, M.R.; Yuan, F.

2013-01-01

There is a substantial amount of carbon stored in the permafrost soils of boreal forest ecosystems, where it is currently protected from decomposition. The surface organic horizons insulate the deeper soil from variations in atmospheric temperature. The removal of these insulating horizons through consumption by fire increases the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw, and the carbon stored in permafrost to decomposition. In this study we ask how warming and fire regime may influence spatial and temporal changes in active layer and carbon dynamics across a boreal forest landscape in interior Alaska. To address this question, we (1) developed and tested a predictive model of the effect of fire severity on soil organic horizons that depends on landscape-level conditions and (2) used this model to evaluate the long-term consequences of warming and changes in fire regime on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across interior Alaska. The predictive model of fire severity, designed from the analysis of field observations, reproduces the effect of local topography (landform category, the slope angle and aspect and flow accumulation), weather conditions (drought index, soil moisture) and fire characteristics (day of year and size of the fire) on the reduction of the organic layer caused by fire. The integration of the fire severity model into an ecosystem process-based model allowed us to document the relative importance and interactions among local topography, fire regime and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics. Lowlands were more resistant to severe fires and climate warming, showing smaller increases in active layer thickness and soil carbon loss compared to drier flat uplands and slopes. In simulations that included the effects of both warming and fire at the regional scale, fire was primarily responsible for a reduction in organic layer thickness of 0.06 m on average by 2100 that led to an increase in active layer thickness of 1.1 m on average by 2100. The combination of warming and fire led to a simulated cumulative loss of 9.6 kgC m−2 on average by 2100. Our analysis suggests that ecosystem carbon storage in boreal forests in interior Alaska is particularly vulnerable, primarily due to the combustion of organic layer thickness in fire and the related increase in active layer thickness that exposes previously protected permafrost soil carbon to decomposition.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature.

PubMed

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C; Dey, Daniel; Muzika, Rose Marie

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature

PubMed Central

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Dey, Daniel

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature. PMID:28704457

An investigation of crown fuel bulk density effects on the dynamics of crown fire initiation in shrublands

Treesearch

Watcharapong Tachajapong; Jesse Lozano; Shankar Mahalingam; Xiangyang Zhou; David R. Weise

2008-01-01

Crown fire initiation is studied by using a simple experimental and detailed physical modeling based on Large Eddy Simulation (LES). Experiments conducted thus far reveal that crown fuel ignition via surface fire occurs when the crown base is within the continuous flame region and does not occur when the crown base is located in the hot plume gas region of the surface...

On the influences of key modelling constants of large eddy simulations for large-scale compartment fires predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuen, Anthony C. Y.; Yeoh, Guan H.; Timchenko, Victoria; Cheung, Sherman C. P.; Chan, Qing N.; Chen, Timothy

2017-09-01

An in-house large eddy simulation (LES) based fire field model has been developed for large-scale compartment fire simulations. The model incorporates four major components, including subgrid-scale turbulence, combustion, soot and radiation models which are fully coupled. It is designed to simulate the temporal and fluid dynamical effects of turbulent reaction flow for non-premixed diffusion flame. Parametric studies were performed based on a large-scale fire experiment carried out in a 39-m long test hall facility. Several turbulent Prandtl and Schmidt numbers ranging from 0.2 to 0.5, and Smagorinsky constants ranging from 0.18 to 0.23 were investigated. It was found that the temperature and flow field predictions were most accurate with turbulent Prandtl and Schmidt numbers of 0.3, respectively, and a Smagorinsky constant of 0.2 applied. In addition, by utilising a set of numerically verified key modelling parameters, the smoke filling process was successfully captured by the present LES model.

Numerical modeling of laboratory-scale surface-to-crown fire transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castle, Drew Clayton

Understanding the conditions leading to the transition of fire spread from a surface fuel to an elevated (crown) fuel is critical to effective fire risk assessment and management. Surface fires that successfully transition to crown fires can be very difficult to suppress, potentially leading to damages in the natural and built environments. This is relevant to chaparral shrub lands which are common throughout parts of the Southwest U.S. and represent a significant part of the wildland urban interface. The ability of the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamic Simulator (WFDS) to model surface-to-crown fire transition was evaluated through comparison to laboratory experiments. The WFDS model is being developed by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The experiments were conducted at the USFS Forest Fire Laboratory in Riverside, California. The experiments measured the ignition of chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) crown fuel held above a surface fire spreading through excelsior fuel. Cases with different crown fuel bulk densities, crown fuel base heights, and imposed wind speeds were considered. Cold-flow simulations yielded wind speed profiles that closely matched the experimental measurements. Next, fire simulations with only the surface fuel were conducted to verify the rate of spread while factors such as substrate properties were varied. Finally, simulations with both a surface fuel and a crown fuel were completed. Examination of specific surface fire characteristics (rate of spread, flame angle, etc.) and the corresponding experimental surface fire behavior provided a basis for comparison of the factors most responsible for transition from a surface fire to the raised fuel ignition. The rate of spread was determined by tracking the flame in the Smokeview animations using a tool developed for tracking an actual flame in a video. WFDS simulations produced results in both surface fire spread and raised fuel bed ignition which closely matched the trends reported in the laboratory experiments.

Changes in future fire regimes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut

2013-04-01

Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.

Validation of coupled atmosphere-fire behavior models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bossert, J.E.; Reisner, J.M.; Linn, R.R.

1998-12-31

Recent advances in numerical modeling and computer power have made it feasible to simulate the dynamical interaction and feedback between the heat and turbulence induced by wildfires and the local atmospheric wind and temperature fields. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, the authors have developed a modeling system that includes this interaction by coupling a high resolution atmospheric dynamics model, HIGRAD, with a fire behavior model, BEHAVE, to predict the spread of wildfires. The HIGRAD/BEHAVE model is run at very high resolution to properly resolve the fire/atmosphere interaction. At present, these coupled wildfire model simulations are computationally intensive. The additional complexitymore » of these models require sophisticated methods for assuring their reliability in real world applications. With this in mind, a substantial part of the research effort is directed at model validation. Several instrumented prescribed fires have been conducted with multi-agency support and participation from chaparral, marsh, and scrub environments in coastal areas of Florida and inland California. In this paper, the authors first describe the data required to initialize the components of the wildfire modeling system. Then they present results from one of the Florida fires, and discuss a strategy for further testing and improvement of coupled weather/wildfire models.« less

Analysis of the Assignment Scheduling Capability for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (ASC-U) Simulation Tool

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

dynamic programming approach known as a “rolling horizon” approach. This method accounts for state transitions within the simulation rather than modeling ... model is based on the framework developed for Dynamic Allocation of Fires and Sensors used to evaluate factors associated with networking assets in the...of UAVs required by all types of maneuver and support brigades. (Witsken, 2004) The Modeling , Virtual Environments, and Simulations Institute

Climate Change Transforms Fire Regimes but Does not Eliminate Forest Carbon Sequestration in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henne, P. D.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Berryman, E.

2017-12-01

Annual area burned in the Rocky Mountains varies with climatic conditions. However, projecting long-term changes in wildfire presents an enduring challenge because climate also constrains vegetation and fuel availability. We combined an aridity-threshold fire model with the Landis-II dynamic landscape vegetation model (NECN extension) to project climate change impacts on vegetation, area burned, and ecosystem carbon balance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We developed a fire model that relates drought stress to area burned by quantifying an aridity threshold separating large and small years in 15 ecoregions in the Intermountain West. A significant positive correlation (r2 = 0.97) exists between mean fire-season aridity and ecoregion-specific aridity thresholds. We simulated vegetation and fire dynamics in the GYE at 250 m spatial resolution with Landis-II, using projections from five climate models and two emissions scenarios for the period 1980-2100 AD. We determined if each simulation year exceeded the regional aridity threshold, then randomly drew the number of fires and size of individual fires from fire-size distributions from large or small fire years. Burned area increases dramatically in most climate scenarios, especially after 2060, when most years exceed the aridity threshold. Productivity gains due to rising temperatures partially offset biomass lost to fire, but C stocks plateau or decline after 2060 in most simulations as burned area increases, and drought stress causes post-fire regeneration to decline at low elevations. However, species level changes (e.g. expansion by drought-tolerant Pseuodotsuga menziesii) help maintain productivity in sites where water becomes limiting. Fire-adapted Pinus contorta occupies less total area, but a greater proportion of remaining forests, and Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa significantly decline. Although fire and climate change will alter species distributions and forest structure, our results suggest that the GYE can maintain a C sink through 2100. However, C stocks will likely shift to higher elevations, and forests will be less resilient to disturbance, in a warmer future. Our landscape-level approach identifies regions likely to maintain high conservation value and ecosystem services under multiple climate scenarios.

Deconstructing the King Megafire.

PubMed

Coen, Janice L; Stavros, E Natasha; Fites-Kaufman, Josephine A

2018-05-24

Hypotheses that megafires - very large, high impact fires - are caused by either climate effects such as drought or fuel accumulation due to fire exclusion with accompanying changes to forest structure have long been alleged and guided policy but their physical basis remains untested. Here, unique airborne observations and microscale simulations using a coupled weather - wildland fire behavior model allowed a recent megafire, the King Fire, to be deconstructed and the relative impacts of forest structure, fuel load, weather, and drought on fire size, behavior, and duration to be separated. Simulations reproduced observed details including the arrival at an inclined canyon, a 25-km run, and later slower growth and features. Analysis revealed that fire-induced winds that equaled or exceeded ambient winds and fine-scale airflow undetected by surface weather networks were primarily responsible for the fire's rapid growth and size. Sensitivity tests varied fuel moisture and amount across wide ranges and showed that both drought and fuel accumulation effects were secondary, limited to sloped terrain where they compounded each other, and, in this case, unable to significantly impact the final extent. Compared to standard data, fuel models derived solely from remote sensing of vegetation type and forest structure improved simulated fire progression, notably in disturbed areas, and the distribution of burn severity. These results point to self-reinforcing internal dynamics rather than external forces as a means of generating this and possibly other outlier fire events. Hence, extreme fires need not arise from extreme fire environment conditions. Kinematic models used in operations do not capture fire-induced winds and dynamic feedbacks so can underestimate megafire events. The outcomes provided a nuanced view of weather, forest structure, fuel accumulation, and drought impacts on landscape-scale fire behavior - roles that can be misconstrued using correlational analyses between area burned and macroscale climate data or other exogenous factors. A practical outcome is that fuel treatments should be focused on sloped terrain, where factors multiply, for highest impact. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Thornton, P. E.; Hoffman, F. M.; Levis, S.; Lawrence, P. J.; Feddema, J. J.; Oleson, K. W.; Lawrence, D. M.

2010-06-01

Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLM-CN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite-based estimates in terms of magnitude and spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Long-term trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer (2005). We obtained substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997-2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite-based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000-2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we predicted a slight downward trend in global fire emissions caused by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and also by increases in fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend during the last three decades of the 20th century as a result of climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSO-induced drought conditions.

A WSN-based tool for urban and industrial fire-fighting.

PubMed

De San Bernabe Clemente, Alberto; Martínez-de Dios, José Ramiro; Ollero Baturone, Aníbal

2012-11-06

This paper describes a WSN tool to increase safety in urban and industrial fire-fighting activities. Unlike most approaches, we assume that there is no preexisting WSN in the building, which involves interesting advantages but imposes some constraints. The system integrates the following functionalities: fire monitoring, firefighter monitoring and dynamic escape path guiding. It also includes a robust localization method that employs RSSI-range models dynamically trained to cope with the peculiarities of the environment. The training and application stages of the method are applied simultaneously, resulting in significant adaptability. Besides simulations and laboratory tests, a prototype of the proposed system has been validated in close-to-operational conditions.

Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel.

PubMed

Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C

2015-05-01

Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect.

Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel

PubMed Central

Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C.

2015-01-01

Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect. PMID:26190905

Near and far field contamination modeling in a large scale enclosure: Fire Dynamics Simulator comparisons with measured observations.

PubMed

Ryder, Noah L; Schemel, Christopher F; Jankiewicz, Sean P

2006-03-17

The occurrence of a fire, no matter how small, often exposes objects to significant levels of contamination from the products of combustion. The production and dispersal of these contaminants has been an issue of relevance in the field of fire science for many years, though little work has been done to examine the contamination levels accumulated within an enclosure some time after an incident. This phenomenon is of great importance when considering the consequences associated with even low level contamination of sensitive materials, such as food, pharmaceuticals, clothing, electrical equipment, etc. Not only does such exposure present a localized hazard, but also the shipment of contaminated goods places distant recipients at risk. It is the intent of this paper to use a well-founded computational fluid dynamic (CFD) program, the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), a large eddy simulation (LES) code developed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), to model smoke dispersion in order to assess the subject of air contamination and post fire surface contamination in a warehouse facility. Measured results are then compared with the results from the FDS model. Two components are examined: the production rate of contaminates and the trajectory of contaminates caused by the forced ventilation conditions. Each plays an important role in determining the extent to which the products of combustion are dispersed and the levels to which products are exposed to the contaminants throughout the enclosure. The model results indicate a good first-order approximation to the measured surface contamination levels. The proper application of the FDS model can provide a cost and time efficient means of evaluating contamination levels within a defined volume.

Improving the Interoperability of Disaster Models: a Case Study of Proposing Fireml for Forest Fire Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, W.; Wang, F.; Meng, Q.; Li, Z.; Liu, B.; Zheng, X.

2018-04-01

This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

Wildfire and drought dynamics destabilize carbon stores of fire-suppressed forests.

PubMed

Earles, J Mason; North, Malcolm P; Hurteau, Matthew D

2014-06-01

Widespread fire suppression and thinning have altered the structure and composition of many forests in the western United States, making them more susceptible to the synergy of large-scale drought and fire events. We examine how these changes affect carbon storage and stability compared to historic fire-adapted conditions. We modeled carbon dynamics under possible drought and fire conditions over a 300-year simulation period in two mixed-conifer conditions common in the western United States: (1) pine-dominated with an active fire regime and (2) fir-dominated, fire suppressed forests. Fir-dominated stands, with higher live- and dead-wood density, had much lower carbon stability as drought and fire frequency increased compared to pine-dominated forest. Carbon instability resulted from species (i.e., fir's greater susceptibility to drought and fire) and stand (i.e., high density of smaller trees) conditions that develop in the absence of active management. Our modeling suggests restoring historic species composition and active fire regimes can significantly increase carbon stability in fire-suppressed, mixed-conifer forests. Long-term management of forest carbon should consider the relative resilience of stand structure and composition to possible increases in disturbance frequency and intensity under changing climate.

The Impact of Structural Heterogeneity on Excitation-Inhibition Balance in Cortical Networks.

PubMed

Landau, Itamar D; Egger, Robert; Dercksen, Vincent J; Oberlaender, Marcel; Sompolinsky, Haim

2016-12-07

Models of cortical dynamics often assume a homogeneous connectivity structure. However, we show that heterogeneous input connectivity can prevent the dynamic balance between excitation and inhibition, a hallmark of cortical dynamics, and yield unrealistically sparse and temporally regular firing. Anatomically based estimates of the connectivity of layer 4 (L4) rat barrel cortex and numerical simulations of this circuit indicate that the local network possesses substantial heterogeneity in input connectivity, sufficient to disrupt excitation-inhibition balance. We show that homeostatic plasticity in inhibitory synapses can align the functional connectivity to compensate for structural heterogeneity. Alternatively, spike-frequency adaptation can give rise to a novel state in which local firing rates adjust dynamically so that adaptation currents and synaptic inputs are balanced. This theory is supported by simulations of L4 barrel cortex during spontaneous and stimulus-evoked conditions. Our study shows how synaptic and cellular mechanisms yield fluctuation-driven dynamics despite structural heterogeneity in cortical circuits. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regimes of dry convection above wildfires: Idealized numerical simulations and dimensional analysis

Treesearch

Michael T. Kiefer; Matthew D. Parker; Joseph J. Charney

2009-01-01

Wildfires are capable of inducing atmospheric circulations that result predominantly from large temperature anomalies produced by the fire. The fundamental dynamics through which a forest fire and the atmosphere interact to yield different convective regimes is still not well understood. This study uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model to...

Calculation of precise firing statistics in a neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Myoung Won

2017-08-01

A precise prediction of neural firing dynamics is requisite to understand the function of and the learning process in a biological neural network which works depending on exact spike timings. Basically, the prediction of firing statistics is a delicate manybody problem because the firing probability of a neuron at a time is determined by the summation over all effects from past firing states. A neural network model with the Feynman path integral formulation is recently introduced. In this paper, we present several methods to calculate firing statistics in the model. We apply the methods to some cases and compare the theoretical predictions with simulation results.

Spatial simulation of forest succession and timber harvesting using LANDIS

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Stephen R. Shifley; David J. Mladenoff; Kevin K. Nimerfro; Hong S. He

2000-01-01

The LANDIS model simulates ecological dynamics, including forest succession, disturbance, seed dispersal and establishment, fire and wind disturbance, and their interactions. We describe the addition to LANDIS of capabilities to simulate forest vegetation management, including harvest. Stands (groups of cells) are prioritized for harvest using one of four ranking...

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes.

PubMed

Bachelet, Dominique; Ferschweiler, Ken; Sheehan, Timothy J; Sleeter, Benjamin M; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-12-01

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie-forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122-126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate, soil organic layer, and nitrogen jointly drive forest development after fire in the North American boreal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, A. T.; Fenton, N. J.; Bergeron, Y.; Xu, X.; Welp, L. R.; Medvigy, D.

2016-09-01

Previous empirical work has shown that feedbacks between fire severity, soil organic layer thickness, tree recruitment, and forest growth are important factors controlling carbon accumulation after fire disturbance. However, current boreal forest models inadequately simulate this feedback. We address this deficiency by updating the ED2 model to include a dynamic feedback between soil organic layer thickness, tree recruitment, and forest growth. The model is validated against observations spanning monthly to centennial time scales and ranging from Alaska to Quebec. We then quantify differences in forest development after fire disturbance resulting from changes in soil organic layer accumulation, temperature, nitrogen availability, and atmospheric CO2. First, we find that ED2 accurately reproduces observations when a dynamic soil organic layer is included. Second, simulations indicate that the presence of a thick soil organic layer after a mild fire disturbance decreases decomposition and productivity. The combination of the biological and physical effects increases or decreases total ecosystem carbon depending on local conditions. Third, with a 4°C temperature increase, some forests transition from undergoing succession to needleleaf forests to recruiting multiple cohorts of broadleaf trees, decreasing total ecosystem carbon by ˜40% after 300 years. However, the presence of a thick soil organic layer due to a persistently mild fire regime can prevent this transition and mediate carbon losses even under warmer temperatures. Fourth, nitrogen availability regulates successional dynamics; broadleaf species are less competitive with needleleaf trees under low nitrogen regimes. Fifth, the boreal forest shows additional short-term capacity for carbon sequestration as atmospheric CO2 increases.

Simulating wildfire spread behavior between two NASA Active Fire data timeframes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, B.; Hodza, P.; Xu, C.; Minckley, T. A.

2017-12-01

Although NASA's Active Fire dataset is considered valuable in mapping the spatial distribution and extent of wildfires across the world, the data is only available at approximately 12-hour time intervals, creating uncertainties and risks associated with fire spread and behavior between the two Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Satellite (VIIRS) data collection timeframes. Our study seeks to close the information gap for the United States by using the latest Active Fire data collected for instance around 0130 hours as an ignition source and critical inputs to a wildfire model by uniquely incorporating forecasted and real-time weather conditions for predicting fire perimeter at the next 12 hour reporting time (i.e. around 1330 hours). The model ingests highly dynamic variables such as fuel moisture, temperature, relative humidity, wind among others, and prompts a Monte Carlo simulation exercise that uses a varying range of possible values for evaluating all possible wildfire behaviors. The Monte Carlo simulation implemented in this model provides a measure of the relative wildfire risk levels at various locations based on the number of times those sites are intersected by simulated fire perimeters. Model calibration is achieved using data at next reporting time (i.e. after 12 hours) to enhance the predictive quality at further time steps. While initial results indicate that the calibrated model can predict the overall geometry and direction of wildland fire spread, the model seems to over-predict the sizes of most fire perimeters possibly due to unaccounted fire suppression activities. Nonetheless, the results of this study show great promise in aiding wildland fire tracking, fighting and risk management.

Regional Simulations of Stratospheric Lofting of Smoke Plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, G. L.; Fromm, M.; Robock, A.

2006-12-01

The lifetime and spatial distribution of sooty aerosols from multiple fires that would cause major climate impact were debated in studies of climatic and environmental consequences of a nuclear war in the 1980s. The Kuwait oil fires in 1991 did not show a cumulative effect of multiple smoke plumes on large-scale circulation systems and smoke was mainly dispersed in the middle troposphere. However, recent observations show that smoke from large forest fires can be directly injected into the lower stratosphere by strong pyro-convective storms. Smoke plumes in the upper troposphere can be partially mixed into the lower stratosphere because of the same heating and lofting effect that was simulated in large-scale nuclear winter simulations with interactive aerosols. However nuclear winter simulations were conducted using climate models with grid spacing of more than 100 km, which do not account for the fine-scale dynamic processes. Therefore in this study we conduct fine-scale regional simulations of the aerosol plume using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale model which was modified to account for radiatively interactive tracers. To resolve fine-scale dynamic processes we use horizontal grid spacing of 25 km and 60 vertical layers, and initiate simulations with the NCEP reanalysis fields. We find that dense aerosol layers could be lofted from 1 to a few km per day, but this critically depends on the optical depth of aerosol layer, single scatter albedo, and how fast the plume is being diluted. Kuwaiti plumes from different small-area fires reached only 5-6 km altitude and were probably diffused and diluted in the lower and middle troposphere. A plume of 100 km spatial scale initially developed in the upper troposphere tends to penetrate into the stratosphere. Short-term cloud resolving simulations of such a plume show that aerosol heating intensifies small-scale motions that tend to mix smoke polluted air into the lower stratosphere. Regional simulations allow us to more accurately estimate the rate of lifting and spreading of aerosol clouds. But they do not reveal any dynamic processes that could prevent heating and lofting of absorbing aerosols.

Population rate dynamics and multineuron firing patterns in sensory cortex

PubMed Central

Okun, Michael; Yger, Pierre; Marguet, Stephan; Gerard-Mercier, Florian; Benucci, Andrea; Katzner, Steffen; Busse, Laura; Carandini, Matteo; Harris, Kenneth D.

2012-01-01

Cortical circuits encode sensory stimuli through the firing of neuronal ensembles, and also produce spontaneous population patterns in the absence of sensory drive. This population activity is often characterized experimentally by the distribution of multineuron “words” (binary firing vectors), and a match between spontaneous and evoked word distributions has been suggested to reflect learning of a probabilistic model of the sensory world. We analyzed multineuron word distributions in sensory cortex of anesthetized rats and cats, and found that they are dominated by fluctuations in population firing rate rather than precise interactions between individual units. Furthermore, cortical word distributions change when brain state shifts, and similar behavior is seen in simulated networks with fixed, random connectivity. Our results suggest that similarity or dissimilarity in multineuron word distributions could primarily reflect similarity or dissimilarity in population firing rate dynamics, and not necessarily the precise interactions between neurons that would indicate learning of sensory features. PMID:23197704

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Genet, Helene; McGuire, A. David; Barrett, K.

There is a substantial amount of carbon stored in the permafrost soils of boreal forest ecosystems, where it is currently protected from decomposition. The surface organic horizons insulate the deeper soil from variations in atmospheric temperature. The removal of these insulating horizons through consumption by fire increases the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw, and the carbon stored in permafrost to decomposition. In this study we ask how warming and fire regime may influence spatial and temporal changes in active layer and carbon dynamics across a boreal forest landscape in interior Alaska. To address this question, we (1) developed and testedmore » a predictive model of the effect of fire severity on soil organic horizons that depends on landscape-level conditions and (2) used this model to evaluate the long-term consequences of warming and changes in fire regime on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across interior Alaska. The predictive model of fire severity, designed from the analysis of field observations, reproduces the effect of local topography (landform category, the slope angle and aspect and flow accumulation), weather conditions (drought index, soil moisture) and fire characteristics (day of year and size of the fire) on the reduction of the organic layercaused by fire. The integration of the fire severity model into an ecosystem process-based model allowed us to document the relative importance and interactions among local topography, fire regime and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics. Lowlands were more resistant to severe fires and climate warming, showing smaller increases in active layer thickness and soil carbon loss compared to drier flat uplands and slopes. In simulations that included the effects of both warming and fire at the regional scale, fire was primarily responsible for a reduction in organic layer thickness of 0.06 m on average by 2100 that led to an increase in active layer thickness of 1.1 m on average by 2100. The combination of warming and fire led to a simulated cumulative loss of 9.6 kgC m 2 on average by 2100. Our analysis suggests that ecosystem carbon storage in boreal forests in interior Alaska is particularly vulnerable, primarily due to the combustion of organic layer thickness in fire and the related increase in active layer thickness that exposes previously protected permafrost soil carbon to decomposition.« less

Simulating statistics of lightning-induced and man made fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krenn, R.; Hergarten, S.

2009-04-01

The frequency-area distributions of forest fires show power-law behavior with scaling exponents α in a quite narrow range, relating wildfire research to the theoretical framework of self-organized criticality. Examples of self-organized critical behavior can be found in computer simulations of simple cellular automata. The established self-organized critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model (DS-FFM) is one of the most widespread models in this context. Despite its qualitative agreement with event-size statistics from nature, its applicability is still questioned. Apart from general concerns that the DS-FFM apparently oversimplifies the complex nature of forest dynamics, it significantly overestimates the frequency of large fires. We present a straightforward modification of the model rules that increases the scaling exponent α by approximately 1•3 and brings the simulated event-size statistics close to those observed in nature. In addition, combined simulations of both the original and the modified model predict a dependence of the overall distribution on the ratio of lightning induced and man made fires as well as a difference between their respective event-size statistics. The increase of the scaling exponent with decreasing lightning probability as well as the splitting of the partial distributions are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database. As a consequence, lightning induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modeling, hazard assessment and forest management.

Assessment of the Influence of Fractures on the Dynamics of Coal Seam Fires by Numerical Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuttke, Manfred W.; Zeng, Qiang

2016-04-01

Uncontrolled burning coal seam fires still constitute major problems for the coal industry by destroying the resource, a serious hazard for the local people by severe environmental pollution, and a tremendous threat to the global environment by the emission of greenhouse gases and aerosols. In particular when the seams are lying shallow the alteration of the immediate surrounding of the coal seam fire feeds back on the dynamics of the fire. Thermal stress induced fracturing produces direct connections of the fire zone with the atmosphere. This influences the supply with oxygen, the venting of the exhaust gases, and the dissipation of heat. The first two processes are expected to enhance the fire propagation whereas the latter effect should slow it down. With our dedicated coal seam fire code ACME ("Amendable Coal-fire Modeling Exercise") we study these coupled effects of fractures in simulations of typical coal seam fire scenarios based on data from Xinjiang, China. Fractures are predefined as 1D/2D objects in a 2D/3D model geometry and are opened depending on the passage of the heat wave produced by the coal seam fire.

Modeling the Effects of Fire Frequency and Severity on Forests in the Northwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busing, Richard T.; Solomon, Allen M.

2006-01-01

This study used a model of forest dynamics (FORCLIM) and actual forest survey data to demonstrate the effects of various fire regimes on different forest types in the Pacific Northwest. We examined forests in eight ecoregions ranging from wet coastal forests dominated by Pseudotsuga menziesii and other tall conifers to dry interior forests dominated by Pinus ponderosa. Fire effects simulated as elevated mortality of trees based on their species and size did alter forest structure and species composition. Low frequency fires characteristic of wetter forests (return interval >200 yr) had minor effects on composition. When fires were severe, they tended to reduce total basal area with little regard to species differences. High frequency fires characteristic of drier forests (return interval <30 yr) had major effects on species composition and on total basal area. Typically, they caused substantial reductions in total basal area and shifts in dominance toward highly fire tolerant species. With the addition of fire, simulated basal areas averaged across ecoregions were reduced to levels approximating observed basal areas.

Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.

2008-01-01

Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire disturbance. Simulations generated from this model are expected to be the subject of subsequent studies on landscape dynamics with specific regard to prediction of wildlife distributions associated with fire management and climate change.

Available fuel dynamics in nine contrasting forest ecosystems in North America

Treesearch

Soung-Ryoul Ryu; Jiquan Chen; Thomas R. Crow; Sari C. Saunders

2004-01-01

Available fuel and its dynamics, both of which affect fire behavior in forest ecosystems, are direct products of ecosystem production, decomposition, and disturbances. Using published ecosystem models and equations, we developed a simulation model to evaluate the effects of dynamics of aboveground net primary production (ANPP), carbon allocation, residual slash,...

A fire model with distinct crop, pasture, and non-agricultural burning: use of new data and a model-fitting algorithm for FINAL.1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, Sam S.; Ward, Daniel S.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Magi, Brian I.; Shevliakova, Elena; Pacala, Stephen W.

2018-03-01

This study describes and evaluates the Fire Including Natural & Agricultural Lands model (FINAL) which, for the first time, explicitly simulates cropland and pasture management fires separately from non-agricultural fires. The non-agricultural fire module uses empirical relationships to simulate burned area in a quasi-mechanistic framework, similar to past fire modeling efforts, but with a novel optimization method that improves the fidelity of simulated fire patterns to new observational estimates of non-agricultural burning. The agricultural fire components are forced with estimates of cropland and pasture fire seasonality and frequency derived from observational land cover and satellite fire datasets. FINAL accurately simulates the amount, distribution, and seasonal timing of burned cropland and pasture over 2001-2009 (global totals: 0.434×106 and 2.02×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 0.454×106 and 2.04×106 km2 yr-1 observed), but carbon emissions for cropland and pasture fire are overestimated (global totals: 0.295 and 0.706 PgC yr-1 modeled, 0.194 and 0.538 PgC yr-1 observed). The non-agricultural fire module underestimates global burned area (1.91×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 2.44×106 km2 yr-1 observed) and carbon emissions (1.14 PgC yr-1 modeled, 1.84 PgC yr-1 observed). The spatial pattern of total burned area and carbon emissions is generally well reproduced across much of sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, Central Asia, and Australia, whereas the boreal zone sees underestimates. FINAL represents an important step in the development of global fire models, and offers a strategy for fire models to consider human-driven fire regimes on cultivated lands. At the regional scale, simulations would benefit from refinements in the parameterizations and improved optimization datasets. We include an in-depth discussion of the lessons learned from using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in an interactive optimization for a dynamic global vegetation model.

Palaeodata-informed modelling of large carbon losses from recent burning of boreal forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Ryan; Genet, Helene; McGuire, A. David; Hu, Feng Sheng

2016-01-01

Wildfires play a key role in the boreal forest carbon cycle1, 2, and models suggest that accelerated burning will increase boreal C emissions in the coming century3. However, these predictions may be compromised because brief observational records provide limited constraints to model initial conditions4. We confronted this limitation by using palaeoenvironmental data to drive simulations of long-term C dynamics in the Alaskan boreal forest. Results show that fire was the dominant control on C cycling over the past millennium, with changes in fire frequency accounting for 84% of C stock variability. A recent rise in fire frequency inferred from the palaeorecord5 led to simulated C losses of 1.4 kg C m−2 (12% of ecosystem C stocks) from 1950 to 2006. In stark contrast, a small net C sink of 0.3 kg C m−2 occurred if the past fire regime was assumed to be similar to the modern regime, as is common in models of C dynamics. Although boreal fire regimes are heterogeneous, recent trends6 and future projections7 point to increasing fire activity in response to climate warming throughout the biome. Thus, predictions8 that terrestrial C sinks of northern high latitudes will mitigate rising atmospheric CO2 may be over-optimistic.

A WSN-Based Tool for Urban and Industrial Fire-Fighting

PubMed Central

De San Bernabe Clemente, Alberto; Dios, José Ramiro Martínez-de; Baturone, Aníbal Ollero

2012-01-01

This paper describes a WSN tool to increase safety in urban and industrial fire-fighting activities. Unlike most approaches, we assume that there is no preexisting WSN in the building, which involves interesting advantages but imposes some constraints. The system integrates the following functionalities: fire monitoring, firefighter monitoring and dynamic escape path guiding. It also includes a robust localization method that employs RSSI-range models dynamically trained to cope with the peculiarities of the environment. The training and application stages of the method are applied simultaneously, resulting in significant adaptability. Besides simulations and laboratory tests, a prototype of the proposed system has been validated in close-to-operational conditions. PMID:23202198

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought–fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought–fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought–fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate.

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

PubMed

McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy S

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought-fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought-fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Implications of Stellar Feedback for Dynamical Modeling of the Milky Way and Dwarf Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetzel, Andrew

2018-04-01

I will present recent results on dynamical modeling of stellar populations from the FIRE cosmological zoom-in baryonic simulations of Milky Way-like and dwarf galaxies. First, I will discuss the dynamical formation of the Milky Way, including the origin of thin+thick stellar disk morphology. I also will discuss the curious origin of metal-rich stars on halo-like orbits near the Sun, as recently measured by Gaia, with new insights from FIRE simulations on stellar radial migration/heating. Next, I will discuss role of stellar feedback in generating non-equilibrium fluctuations of the gravitational potential in low-mass 'dwarf' galaxies, which can explain the origin of cores in their dark-matter density profiles. In particular, we predict significant observable effects on stellar dynamics, including radial migration, size fluctuations, and population gradients, which can provide observational tests of feedback-driven core formation. Finally, this scenario can explain the formation of newly discovered 'ultra-diffuse' galaxies.

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupp, T. Scott; Olson, Mark; Adams, Layne G.; Dale, Bruce W.; Joly, Kyle; Henkelman, Jonathan; Collins, William B.; Starfield, Anthony M.

2006-01-01

Caribou are an integral component of high‐latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long‐term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5‐fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce–lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.

Simulation of long-term landscape-level fuel treatment effects on large wildfires

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Rob C. Seli; Charles W. McHugh; Alan A. Ager; Bernhard Bahro; James K. Agee

2008-01-01

A simulation system was developed to explore how fuel treatments placed in topologically random and optimal spatial patterns affect the growth and behaviour of large fires when implemented at different rates over the course of five decades. The system consisted of a forest and fuel dynamics simulation module (Forest Vegetation Simulator, FVS), logic for deriving fuel...

Experimental and Numerical Analysis of the Cooling Performance of Water Spraying Systems during a Fire

PubMed Central

Chen, YaoHan; Su, ChungHwei; Tseng, JoMing; Li, WunJie

2015-01-01

The water spray systems are effective protection systems in the confined or unconfined spaces to avoid the damage to building structures since the high temperature when fires occur. NFPA 15 and 502 have suggested respectively that the factories or vehicle tunnels install water spray systems to protect the machinery and structures. This study discussed the cooling effect of water spray systems in experimental and numerical analyses. The actual combustion of woods were compared with the numerical simulations. The results showed that although the flame continued, the cooling effects by water spraying process within 120 seconds were obvious. The results also indicated that the simulation results of the fifth version Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) overestimated the space temperature before water spraying in the case of the same water spray system. PMID:25723519

Simulated combined abnormal environment fire calculations for aviation impacts.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Alexander L.

2010-08-01

Aircraft impacts at flight speeds are relevant environments for aircraft safety studies. This type of environment pertains to normal environments such as wildlife impacts and rough landings, but also the abnormal environment that has more recently been evidenced in cases such as the Pentagon and World Trade Center events of September 11, 2001, and the FBI building impact in Austin. For more severe impacts, the environment is combined because it involves not just the structural mechanics, but also the release of the fuel and the subsequent fire. Impacts normally last on the order of milliseconds to seconds, whereas the firemore » dynamics may last for minutes to hours, or longer. This presents a serious challenge for physical models that employ discrete time stepping to model the dynamics with accuracy. Another challenge is that the capabilities to model the fire and structural impact are seldom found in a common simulation tool. Sandia National Labs maintains two codes under a common architecture that have been used to model the dynamics of aircraft impact and fire scenarios. Only recently have these codes been coupled directly to provide a fire prediction that is better informed on the basis of a detailed structural calculation. To enable this technology, several facilitating models are necessary, as is a methodology for determining and executing the transfer of information from the structural code to the fire code. A methodology has been developed and implemented. Previous test programs at the Sandia National Labs sled track provide unique data for the dynamic response of an aluminum tank of liquid water impacting a barricade at flight speeds. These data are used to validate the modeling effort, and suggest reasonable accuracy for the dispersion of a non-combustible fluid in an impact environment. The capability is also demonstrated with a notional impact of a fuel-filled container at flight speed. Both of these scenarios are used to evaluate numeric approximations, and help provide an understanding of the quantitative accuracy of the modeling methods.« less

Modeling Forest Composition and Carbon Dynamics Under Projected Climate-Fire Interactions in the Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, S.; Hurteau, M. D.; Westerling, A. L.

2014-12-01

The Sierra Nevada Mountains are occupied by a diversity of forest types that sort by elevation. The interaction of changing climate and altered disturbance regimes (e.g. fire) has the potential to drive changes in forest distribution as a function of species-specific response. Quantifying the effects of these drivers on species distributions and productivity under future climate-fire interactions is necessary for informing mitigation and adaptation efforts. In this study, we assimilated forest inventory and soil survey data and species life history traits into a landscape model, LANDIS-II, to quantify the response of forest dynamics to the interaction of climate change and large wildfire frequency in the Sierra Nevada. We ran 100-year simulations forced with historical climate and climate projections from three models (GFDL, CNRM and CCSM3) driven by the A2 emission scenario. We found that non-growing season NPP is greatly enhanced by 15%-150%, depending on the specific climate projection. The greatest increase occurs in subalpine forests. Species-specific response varied as a function of life history characteristics. The distribution of drought and fire-tolerant species, such as ponderosa pine, expanded by 7.3-9.6% from initial conditions, while drought and fire-intolerant species, such as white fir, showed little change in the absence of fire. Changes in wildfire size and frequency influence species distributions by altering the successional stage of burned patches. The range of responses to different climate models demonstrates the sensitivity of these forests to climate variability. The scale of climate projections relative to the scale of forest simulations presents a source of uncertainty, particularly at the ecotone between forest types and for identifying topographically mediated climate refugia. Improving simulations will likely require higher resolution climate projections.

Effects of fire on regional evapotranspiration in the central Canadian boreal forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Peckham, Scott D.; Gower, Stith T.

2009-04-08

Changes in fire regimes are driving the carbon balance of much of the North American boreal forest, but few studies have examined fire-driven changes in evapotranspiration (ET) at a regional scale. This study used a version of the Biome-BGC process model with dynamic and competing vegetation types, and explicit spatial representation of a large (106 km2) region, to simulate the effects of wildfire on ET and its components from 1948 to 2005 by comparing the fire dynamics of the 1948-1967 period with those of 1968-2005. Simulated ET averaged, over the entire temporal and spatial modeling domain, 323 mm yr-1; simulationmore » results indicated that changes in fire in recent decades decreased regional ET by 1.4% over the entire simulation, and by 3.9% in the last ten years (1996-2005). Conifers dominated the transpiration (EC) flux (120 mm yr-1) but decreased by 18% relative to deciduous broadleaf trees in the last part of the 20th century, when increased fire resulted in increased soil evaporation, lower canopy evaporation, lower EC and a younger and more deciduous forest. Well- and poorly-drained areas had similar rates of evaporation from the canopy and soil, but EC was twice as high in the well-drained areas. Mosses comprised a significant part of the evaporative flux to the atmosphere (22 mm yr-1). Modeled annual ET was correlated with net primary production, but not with temperature or precipitation; ET and its components were consistent with previous field and modeling studies. Wildfire is thus driving significant changes in hydrological processes, changes that may control the future carbon balance of the boreal forest.« less

Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kloster, Silvia; Mahowald, Natalie; Randerson, Jim

2011-01-01

Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLM-CN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite-based estimates in terms of magnitude and spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Long-term trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we foundmore » the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer (2005). We obtained substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997 2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite-based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000 2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we predicted a slight downward trend in global fire emissions caused by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and also by increases in fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend during the last three decades of the 20th century as a result of climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSO-induced drought conditions.« less

Examination of Wildland Fire Spread at Small Scales Using Direct Numerical Simulations and High-Speed Laser Diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wimer, N. T.; Mackoweicki, A. S.; Poludnenko, A. Y.; Hoffman, C.; Daily, J. W.; Rieker, G. B.; Hamlington, P.

2017-12-01

Results are presented from a joint computational and experimental research effort focused on understanding and characterizing wildland fire spread at small scales (roughly 1m-1mm) using direct numerical simulations (DNS) with chemical kinetics mechanisms that have been calibrated using data from high-speed laser diagnostics. The simulations are intended to directly resolve, with high physical accuracy, all small-scale fluid dynamic and chemical processes relevant to wildland fire spread. The high fidelity of the simulations is enabled by the calibration and validation of DNS sub-models using data from high-speed laser diagnostics. These diagnostics have the capability to measure temperature and chemical species concentrations, and are used here to characterize evaporation and pyrolysis processes in wildland fuels subjected to an external radiation source. The chemical kinetics code CHEMKIN-PRO is used to study and reduce complex reaction mechanisms for water removal, pyrolysis, and gas phase combustion during solid biomass burning. Simulations are then presented for a gaseous pool fire coupled with the resulting multi-step chemical reaction mechanisms, and the results are connected to the fundamental structure and spread of wildland fires. It is anticipated that the combined computational and experimental approach of this research effort will provide unprecedented access to information about chemical species, temperature, and turbulence during the entire pyrolysis, evaporation, ignition, and combustion process, thereby permitting more complete understanding of the physics that must be represented by coarse-scale numerical models of wildland fire spread.

Climatic and socio-economic fire drivers in the Mediterranean basin at a century scale: Analysis and modelling based on historical fire statistics and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Conedera, M.; Pezzatti, B.; Madoui, A.; Belhadj Kheder, C.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is the main disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems, with implications on biogeochemical cycles, biosphere/atmosphere interactions, air quality, biodiversity, and socio-ecosystems sustainability. The fire/climate relationship is time-scale dependent and may additionally vary according to concurrent changes climatic, environmental (e.g. land use), and fire management processes (e.g. fire prevention and control strategies). To date, however, most studies focus on a decadal scale only, being fire statistics ore remote sensing data usually available for a few decades only. Long-term fire data may allow for a better caption of the slow-varying human and climate constrains and for testing the consistency of the fire/climate relationship on the mid-time to better apprehend global change effects on fire risks. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) associated with process-based fire models have been recently developed to capture both the direct role of climate on fire hazard and the indirect role of changes in vegetation and human population, to simulate biosphere/atmosphere interactions including fire emissions. Their ability to accurately reproduce observed fire patterns is still under investigation regarding seasonality, extreme events or temporal trend to identify potential misrepresentations of processes. We used a unique long-term fire reconstruction (from 1880 to 2016) of yearly burned area along a North/South and East/West environmental gradient across the Mediterranean Basin (southern Switzerland, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia) to capture the climatic and socio economic drivers of extreme fire years by linking yearly burned area with selected climate indices derived from historical climate databases and socio-economic variables. We additionally compared the actual historical reconstructed fire history with the yearly burned area simulated by a panel of DGVMS (FIREMIP initiative) driven by daily CRU climate data at 0.5° resolution across the Mediterranean basin. We will present and discuss the key processes driving interannual fire hazard along the 20th century, and analysed how DGVMs capture this interannual variability.

Evacuation dynamic and exit optimization of a supermarket based on particle swarm optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lin; Yu, Zhonghai; Chen, Yang

2014-12-01

A modified particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed in this paper to investigate the dynamic of pedestrian evacuation from a fire in a public building-a supermarket with multiple exits and configurations of counters. Two distinctive evacuation behaviours featured by the shortest-path strategy and the following-up strategy are simulated in the model, accounting for different categories of age and sex of the pedestrians along with the impact of the fire, including gases, heat and smoke. To examine the relationship among the progress of the overall evacuation and the layout and configuration of the site, a series of simulations are conducted in various settings: without a fire and with a fire at different locations. Those experiments reveal a general pattern of two-phase evacuation, i.e., a steep section and a flat section, in addition to the impact of the presence of multiple exits on the evacuation along with the geographic locations of the exits. For the study site, our simulations indicated the deficiency of the configuration and the current layout of this site in the process of evacuation and verified the availability of proposed solutions to resolve the deficiency. More specifically, for improvement of the effectiveness of the evacuation from the site, adding an exit between Exit 6 and Exit 7 and expanding the corridor at the right side of Exit 7 would significantly reduce the evacuation time.

TRPM8-Dependent Dynamic Response in a Mathematical Model of Cold Thermoreceptor

PubMed Central

Olivares, Erick; Salgado, Simón; Maidana, Jean Paul; Herrera, Gaspar; Campos, Matías; Madrid, Rodolfo; Orio, Patricio

2015-01-01

Cold-sensitive nerve terminals (CSNTs) encode steady temperatures with regular, rhythmic temperature-dependent firing patterns that range from irregular tonic firing to regular bursting (static response). During abrupt temperature changes, CSNTs show a dynamic response, transiently increasing their firing frequency as temperature decreases and silencing when the temperature increases (dynamic response). To date, mathematical models that simulate the static response are based on two depolarizing/repolarizing pairs of membrane ionic conductance (slow and fast kinetics). However, these models fail to reproduce the dynamic response of CSNTs to rapid changes in temperature and notoriously they lack a specific cold-activated conductance such as the TRPM8 channel. We developed a model that includes TRPM8 as a temperature-dependent conductance with a calcium-dependent desensitization. We show by computer simulations that it appropriately reproduces the dynamic response of CSNTs from mouse cornea, while preserving their static response behavior. In this model, the TRPM8 conductance is essential to display a dynamic response. In agreement with experimental results, TRPM8 is also needed for the ongoing activity in the absence of stimulus (i.e. neutral skin temperature). Free parameters of the model were adjusted by an evolutionary optimization algorithm, allowing us to find different solutions. We present a family of possible parameters that reproduce the behavior of CSNTs under different temperature protocols. The detection of temperature gradients is associated to a homeostatic mechanism supported by the calcium-dependent desensitization. PMID:26426259

Influences of coupled fire-atmosphere interaction on wildfire behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linn, R.; Winterkamp, J.; Jonko, A. K.; Runde, I.; Canfield, J.; Parsons, R.; Sieg, C.

2017-12-01

Two-way interactions between fire and the environment affect fire behavior at scales ranging from buoyancy-induced mixing and turbulence to fire-scale circulations that retard or increase fire spread. Advances in computing have created new opportunities for the exploration of coupled fire-atmosphere behavior using numerical models that represent interactions between the dominant processes driving wildfire behavior, including convective and radiative heat transfer, aerodynamic drag and buoyant response of the atmosphere to heat released by the fire. Such models are not practical for operational, faster-than-real-time fire prediction due to their computational and data requirements. However, they are valuable tools for exploring influences of fire-atmosphere feedbacks on fire behavior as they explicitly simulate atmospheric motions surrounding fires from meter to kilometer scales. We use the coupled fire-atmosphere model FIRETEC to gain new insights into aspects of fire behavior that have been observed in the field and laboratory, to carry out sensitivity analysis that is impractical through observations and to pose new hypotheses that can be tested experimentally. Specifically, we use FIRETEC to study the following multi-scale coupled fire-atmosphere interactions: 1) 3D fire-atmosphere interaction that dictates multi-scale fire line dynamics; 2) influence of vegetation heterogeneity and variability in wind fields on predictability of fire spread; 3) fundamental impacts of topography on fire spread. These numerical studies support new conceptual models for the dominant roles of multi-scale fluid dynamics in determining fire spread, including the roles of crosswind fire line-intensity variations on heat transfer to unburned fuels and the role of fire line depth expansion in upslope acceleration of fires.

Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson; Raymond Drapeck

2008-01-01

The response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change was simulated for California using the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined, and increases in the productivity of evergreen hardwoods led to the displacement of Evergreen Conifer Forest by Mixed...

Fire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, Jian; Weisberg, Peter J.; Shinneman, Douglas; Dilts, Thomas E.; Earnst, Susan L.; Scheller, Robert M

2015-01-01

Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Results Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5 °C increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales.

Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: A comparison of two fire-vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Minchao; Knorr, Wolfgang; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schurgers, Guy; Camia, Andrea; Arneth, Almut

2015-11-01

Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semiempirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a process-based fire model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models differed notably with respect to the dominating drivers and underlying processes. Fire-vegetation interactions and socioeconomic effects emerged as important uncertainties for future burned area in some European regions. Burned area of eastern Europe increased in both models, pointing at an emerging new fire-prone region that should gain further attention for future fire management.

The potential of satellite data to study individual wildfire events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benali, Akli; López-Saldana, Gerardo; Russo, Ana; Sá, Ana C. L.; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Nikos, Koutsias; Owen, Price; Pereira, Jose M. C.

2014-05-01

Large wildfires have important social, economic and environmental impacts. In order to minimize their impacts, understand their main drivers and study their dynamics, different approaches have been used. The reconstruction of individual wildfire events is usually done by collection of field data, interviews and by implementing fire spread simulations. All these methods have clear limitations in terms of spatial and temporal coverage, accuracy, subjectivity of the collected information and lack of objective independent validation information. In this sense, remote sensing is a promising tool with the potential to provide relevant information for stakeholders and the research community, by complementing or filling gaps in existing information and providing independent accurate quantitative information. In this work we show the potential of satellite data to provide relevant information regarding the dynamics of individual large wildfire events, filling an important gap in wildfire research. We show how MODIS active-fire data, acquired up to four times per day, and satellite-derived burnt perimeters can be combined to extract relevant information wildfire events by describing the methods involved and presenting results for four regions of the world: Portugal, Greece, SE Australia and California. The information that can be retrieved encompasses the start and end date of a wildfire event and its ignition area. We perform an evaluation of the information retrieved by comparing the satellite-derived parameters with national databases, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of both and showing how the former can complement the latter leading to more complete and accurate datasets. We also show how the spatio-temporal distribution of wildfire spread dynamics can be reconstructed using satellite-derived active-fires and how relevant descriptors can be extracted. Applying graph theory to satellite active-fire data, we define the major fire spread paths that yield information about the major spatial corridors through which fires spread, and their relative importance in the full fire event. These major fire paths are then used to extract relevant descriptors, such as the distribution of fire spread direction, rate of spread and fire intensity (i.e. energy emitted). The reconstruction of the fire spread is shown for some case studies for Portugal and is also compared with fire progressions obtained by air-borne sensors for SE Australia. The approach shows solid results, providing a valuable tool for the reconstruction of individual fire events, understand their complex spread patterns and their main drivers of fire propagation. The major fire pathsand the spatio-temporal distribution of active fires are being currently combined with fire spread simulations within the scope oftheFIRE-MODSATproject, to provideuseful information to support and improve fire suppression strategies.

Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003–2100

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Rupp, T.S.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.

2009-01-01

In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003–2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1) vegetation changes following a changing fire regime, and (2) changes in snow cover duration. We used a spatially explicit dynamic vegetation model (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) to simulate changes in successional dynamics associated with fire under the future climate scenarios, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate changes in snow cover. Changes in summer heating due to the changes in the forest stand age distributions under future fire regimes showed a slight cooling effect due to increases in summer albedo (mean across climates of −0.9 W m−2 decade−1). Over this same time period, decreases in snow cover (mean reduction in the snow season of 4.5 d decade−1) caused a reduction in albedo, and a heating effect (mean across climates of 4.3 W m−2 decade−1). Adding both the summer negative change in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire regimes to the positive changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in the length of the snow season resulted in a 3.4 W m−2 decade−1 increase in atmospheric heating. These findings highlight the importance of gaining a better understanding of the influences of changes in surface albedo on atmospheric heating due to both changes in the fire regime and changes in snow cover duration.

Implications of introducing realistic fire response traits in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, D.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

2013-12-01

Bark thickness is a key trait protecting woody plants against fire damage, while the ability to resprout is a trait that confers competitive advantage over non-resprouting individuals in fire-prone landscapes. Neither trait is well represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we describe a version of the Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX-Mv1) DGVM that incorporates both of these traits in a realistic way. From a synthesis of a large number of field studies, we show there is considerable innate variability in bark thickness between species within a plant-functional type (PFT). Furthermore, bark thickness is an adaptive trait at ecosystem level, increasing with fire frequency. We use the data to specify the range of bark thicknesses characteristic of each model PFT. We allow this distribution to change dynamically: thinner-barked trees are killed preferentially by fire, shifting the distribution of bark thicknesses represented in a model grid cell. We use the PFT-specific bark-thickness probability range for saplings during re-establishment. Since it is rare to destroy all trees in a grid cell, this treatment results in average bark thickness increasing with fire frequency and intensity. Resprouting is a prominent adaptation of temperate and tropical trees in fire-prone areas. The ability to resprout from above-ground tissue (apical or epicormic resprouting) results in the fastest recovery of total biomass after disturbance; resprouting from basal or below-ground meristems results in slower recovery, while non-resprouting species must regenerate from seed and therefore take the longest time to recover. Our analyses show that resprouting species have thicker bark than non-resprouting species. Investment in resprouting is accompanied by reduced efficacy of regeneration from seed. We introduce resprouting PFTs in LPX-Mv1 by specifying an appropriate range of bark thickness, allowing resprouters to survive fire and regenerate vegetatively in the next growing season, while regenerating from seed at 10% the rate of non-resprouters. Tests of LPX-Mv1 for Australia - a continent with a wide range of fire-adapted ecosystems - show that it produces a 33% improvement in the simulation of vegetation composition compared to the previous version of the model, with more realistic vegetation transitions from forests to woodland/savanna. It also produces a 19% improvement in the simulation of burnt area compared to the original model. Resprouting PFTs dominate tropical and temperate areas where the climate is semi-humid but are not common in very dry or very wet areas. Comparison with site-based observations of the abundance of resprouters indicate this is realistic. Ecosystems dominated by resprouters in the simulations recover to pre-fire levels of biomass within 5-7 years, much faster than ecosystems dominated by non-resprouters; again this is confirmed by our analyses of the observations. Simulations of the response to projected future climate change show that the incorporation of adaptive bark thickness and of resprouting has a significant effect on terrestrial carbon stocks in fire-affected areas.

Coupled numerical simulation of fire in tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesavento, F.; Pachera, M.; Schrefler, B. A.; Gawin, D.; Witek, A.

2018-01-01

In this work, a coupling strategy for the analysis of a tunnel under fire is presented. This strategy consists in a "one-way" coupling between a tool considering the computational fluid dynamics and radiation with a model treating concrete as a multiphase porous material exposed to high temperature. This global approach allows for taking into account in a realistic manner the behavior of the "system tunnel", composed of the fluid and the solid domain (i.e. the concrete structures), from the fire onset, its development and propagation to the response of the structure. The thermal loads as well as the moisture exchange between the structure surface and the environment are calculated by means of computational fluid dynamics. These set of data are passed in an automatic way to the numerical tool implementing a model based on Multiphase Porous Media Mechanics. Thanks to this strategy the structural verification is no longer based on the standard fire curves commonly used in the engineering practice, but it is directly related to a realistic fire scenario. To show the capability of this strategy some numerical simulations of a fire in the Brenner Base Tunnel, under construction between Italy and Austria, is presented. The numerical simulations show the effects of a more realistic distribution of the thermal loads with respect to the ones obtained by using the standard fire curves. Moreover, it is possible to highlight how the localized thermal load generates a non-uniform pressure rise in the material, which results in an increase of the structure stress state and of the spalling risk. Spalling is likely the most dangerous collapse mechanism for a concrete structure. This coupling approach still represents a "one way" strategy, i.e. realized without considering explicitly the mass and energy exchange from the structure to the fluid through the interface. This results in an approximation, but from physical point of view the current form of the solid-fluid coupling is considered sufficiently accurate in this first phase of the research.

Fokker-Planck description of conductance-based integrate-and-fire neuronal networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kovacic, Gregor; Tao, Louis; Rangan, Aaditya V.

2009-08-15

Steady dynamics of coupled conductance-based integrate-and-fire neuronal networks in the limit of small fluctuations is studied via the equilibrium states of a Fokker-Planck equation. An asymptotic approximation for the membrane-potential probability density function is derived and the corresponding gain curves are found. Validity conditions are discussed for the Fokker-Planck description and verified via direct numerical simulations.

Simulating fire and forest dynamics for a coordinated landscape fuel treatment project in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Brandon M. Collins; Scott L. Stephens; Gary B. Roller; John Battles

2011-01-01

We evaluate an actual landscape fuel treatment project that was designed by local U. S. Forest Service managers in the northern Sierra Nevada. We model the effects of this project at reducing landscape-level fire behavior at multiple time steps, up to nearly 30 yr beyond treatment implementation. Additionally, we modeled planned treatments under multiple diameter-...

Computational Approach to Identify Different Injuries by Firearms.

PubMed

Costa, Sarah Teixeira; Freire, Alexandre Rodrigues; Matoso, Rodrigo Ivo; Daruge Júnior, Eduardo; Rossi, Ana Cláudia; Prado, Felippe Bevilacqua

2017-03-01

Complications arise in the analysis of gunshot wounds to the maxillofacial region, when neither the projectile nor the gun is found at the crime scene. We simulated 5- and 15-cm firing distances at a human mandible to investigate the external morphology of entrance wounds based on fire range. The ammunition models, .40-caliber S&W, .380-caliber, and 9 × 19-mm Luger, were constructed with free-form NURBS surfaces. In a dynamic simulation, projectiles were fired against mandibular body 3D model at 5 and 15 cm. All entrance wounds presented oval aspect. Maximum diameter and von Mises stress values were 16.5 mm and 50.8 MPa, both for .40-caliber S&W fired at 5 cm. The maximum energy loss was 138.4 J for .40 S&W fired at 15 cm. In conclusion, the mandible was most affected by .40-caliber S&W and morphological differences were observable in holes caused by different incoming projectile calibers fired at different distances. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Numerical Simulation on Smoke Spread and Temperature Distribution in a Corn Starch Explosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, CherngShing; Hsu, JuiPei

2018-01-01

It is discovered from dust explosion accidents in recent years that deep causes of the accidents lies in insufficient cognition of dust explosion danger, and no understanding on danger and information of the dust explosion. In the study, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) evaluation tool is used aiming at Taiwan Formosa Fun Coast explosion accidents. The calculator is used for rebuilding the explosion situation. The factors affecting casualties under explosion are studied. The injured personnel participating in the party are evaluated according to smoke diffusion and temperature distribution for numerical simulation results. Some problems noted in the fire disaster after actual explosion are proposed, rational site analysis is given, thereby reducing dust explosion risk grade.

Real-time photorealistic stereoscopic rendering of fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Benjamin M.; McAllister, David F.

2007-02-01

We propose a method for real-time photorealistic stereo rendering of the natural phenomenon of fire. Applications include the use of virtual reality in fire fighting, military training, and entertainment. Rendering fire in real-time presents a challenge because of the transparency and non-static fluid-like behavior of fire. It is well known that, in general, methods that are effective for monoscopic rendering are not necessarily easily extended to stereo rendering because monoscopic methods often do not provide the depth information necessary to produce the parallax required for binocular disparity in stereoscopic rendering. We investigate the existing techniques used for monoscopic rendering of fire and discuss their suitability for extension to real-time stereo rendering. Methods include the use of precomputed textures, dynamic generation of textures, and rendering models resulting from the approximation of solutions of fluid dynamics equations through the use of ray-tracing algorithms. We have found that in order to attain real-time frame rates, our method based on billboarding is effective. Slicing is used to simulate depth. Texture mapping or 2D images are mapped onto polygons and alpha blending is used to treat transparency. We can use video recordings or prerendered high-quality images of fire as textures to attain photorealistic stereo.

Coexistence of Trees and Grass: Importance of climate and fire within the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuman, J. K.; Fisher, R.; Koven, C.; Knox, R. G.; Andre, B.; Kluzek, E. B.

2017-12-01

Tropical forests are characterized by transition zones where dominance shifts between trees and grasses with some areas exhibiting bistability of the two. The cause of this transition and bistability has been linked to the interacting effects of climate, vegetation structure and fire behavior. Utilizing the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model, and the CESM ESM, we explore the coexistence of trees and grass across the tropics with an active fire regime. FATES has been updated to use a fire module based on Spitfire. FATES-Spitfire tracks fire ignition, spread and impact based on fuel state and combustion. Fire occurs within the model with variable intensity that kills trees according to the combined effects of cambial damage and crown scorch due to flame height and fire intensity. As a size-structured model, FATES allows for variable mortality based on the size of tree cohorts, where larger trees experience lower morality compared to small trees. Results for simulation scenarios where vegetation is represented by all trees, all grass, or a combination of competing trees and grass are compared to assess changes in biomass, fire regime and tree-grass coexistence. Within the forest-grass transition area there is a critical time during which grass fuels fire spread and prevents the establishment of trees. If trees are able to escape mortality a tree-grass bistable area is successful. The ability to simulate the bistability and transition of trees and grass throughout the tropics is critical to representing vegetation dynamics in response to changing climate and CO2.

Ventilation of Animal Shelters in Wildland Fire Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bova, A. S.; Bohrer, G.; Dickinson, M. B.

2009-12-01

The effects of wildland fires on cavity-nesting birds and bats, as well as fossorial mammals and burrow-using reptiles, are of considerable interest to the fire management community. However, relatively little is known about the degree of protection afforded by various animal shelters in wildland fire events. We present results from our ongoing investigation, utilizing NIST’s Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and experimental data, of the effectiveness of common shelter configurations in protecting animals from combustion products. We compare two sets of simulations with observed experimental results. In the first set, wind tunnel experiments on single-entry room ventilation by Larsen and Heiselberg (2008) were simulated in a large domain resolved into 10 cm cubic cells. The set of 24 simulations comprised all combinations of incident wind speeds of 1,3 and 5 m/s; angles of attack of 0, 45, 90 and 180 degrees from the horizontal normal to the entrance; and temperature differences of 0 and 10 degrees C between the building interior and exterior. Simulation results were in good agreement with experimental data, thus providing a validation of FDS code for further ventilation experiments. In the second set, a cubic simulation domain of ~1m on edge and resolved into 1 cm cubic cells, was set up to represent the experiments by Ar et al. (2004) of wind-induced ventilation of woodpecker cavities. As in the experiments, we simulated wind parallel and perpendicular to the cavity entrance with different mean forcing velocities, and monitored the rates of evacuation of a neutral-buoyancy tracer from the cavity. Simulated ventilation rates in many, though not all, cases fell within the range of experimental data. Reasons for these differences, which include vagueness in the experimental setup, will be discussed. Our simulations provide a tool to estimate the viability of an animal in a shelter as a function of the shelter geometry and the fire intensity. In addition to the above, we explore the role of turbulence and its effect on ventilation rates, especially in single-entrance shelters. The goal of this work is to provide engineering formulas to estimate the probable levels of harmful or irritating combustion products in animal shelters during wildland fires.

Synchronization in a noise-driven developing neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, I.-H.; Wu, R.-K.; Chen, C.-M.

2011-11-01

We use computer simulations to investigate the structural and dynamical properties of a developing neural network whose activity is driven by noise. Structurally, the constructed neural networks in our simulations exhibit the small-world properties that have been observed in several neural networks. The dynamical change of neuronal membrane potential is described by the Hodgkin-Huxley model, and two types of learning rules, including spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) and inverse STDP, are considered to restructure the synaptic strength between neurons. Clustered synchronized firing (SF) of the network is observed when the network connectivity (number of connections/maximal connections) is about 0.75, in which the firing rate of neurons is only half of the network frequency. At the connectivity of 0.86, all neurons fire synchronously at the network frequency. The network SF frequency increases logarithmically with the culturing time of a growing network and decreases exponentially with the delay time in signal transmission. These conclusions are consistent with experimental observations. The phase diagrams of SF in a developing network are investigated for both learning rules.

Resolving vorticity-driven lateral fire spread using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire numerical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, C. C.; Sharples, J. J.; Evans, J. P.

2014-05-01

Fire channelling is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep lee-facing slope in a direction transverse to the background winds, and is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and extreme pyro-convection. Recent work using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire model has demonstrated that fire channelling can be characterised as vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VDLS). In this study, 16 simulations are conducted using WRF-Fire to examine the sensitivity of resolving VDLS to spatial resolution and atmosphere-fire coupling within the WRF-Fire model framework. The horizontal grid spacing is varied between 25 and 90 m, and the two-way atmosphere-fire coupling is either enabled or disabled. At high spatial resolution, the atmosphere-fire coupling increases the peak uphill and lateral spread rate by a factor of up to 2.7 and 9.5. The enhancement of the uphill and lateral spread rate diminishes at coarser spatial resolution, and VDLS is not modelled for a horizontal grid spacing of 90 m. The laterally spreading fire fronts become the dominant contributors of the extreme pyro-convection. The resolved fire-induced vortices responsible for driving the lateral spread in the coupled simulations have non-zero vorticity along each unit vector direction, and develop due to an interaction between the background winds and vertical return circulations generated at the flank of the fire front as part of the pyro-convective updraft. The results presented in this study demonstrate that both high spatial resolution and two-way atmosphere-fire coupling are required to reproduce VDLS within the current WRF-Fire model framework.

Direct estimation of diffuse gaseous emissions from coal fires: current methods and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Engle, Mark A.; Olea, Ricardo A.; O'Keefe, Jennifer M. K.; Hower, James C.; Geboy, Nicholas J.

2013-01-01

Coal fires occur in nature spontaneously, contribute to increases in greenhouse gases, and emit atmospheric toxicants. Increasing interest in quantifying coal fire emissions has resulted in the adaptation and development of specialized approaches and adoption of numerical modeling techniques. Overview of these methods for direct estimation of diffuse gas emissions from coal fires is presented in this paper. Here we take advantage of stochastic Gaussian simulation to interpolate CO2 fluxes measured using a dynamic closed chamber at the Ruth Mullins coal fire in Perry County, Kentucky. This approach allows for preparing a map of diffuse gas emissions, one of the two primary ways that gases emanate from coal fires, and establishing the reliability of the study both locally and for the entire fire. Future research directions include continuous and automated sampling to improve quantification of gaseous coal fire emissions.

Current and future patterns of fire-induced forest degradation in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Faria, Bruno L.; Brando, Paulo M.; Macedo, Marcia N.; Panday, Prajjwal K.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.; Coe, Michael T.

2017-09-01

Amazon droughts directly increase forest flammability by reducing forest understory air and fuel moisture. Droughts also increase forest flammability indirectly by decreasing soil moisture, triggering leaf shedding, branch loss, and tree mortality—all of which contribute to increased fuel loads. These direct and indirect effects can cause widespread forest fires that reduce forest carbon stocks in the Amazon, with potentially important consequences for the global carbon cycle. These processes are expected to become more widespread, common, and intense as global climate changes, yet the mechanisms linking droughts, wildfires, and associated changes in carbon stocks remain poorly understood. Here, we expanded the capabilities of a dynamic forest carbon model to better represent (1) drought effects on carbon and fuel dynamics and (2) understory fire behavior and severity. We used the refined model to quantify changes in Pan-Amazon live carbon stocks as a function of the maximum climatological water deficit (MCWD) and fire intensity, under both historical and future climate conditions. We found that the 2005 and 2010 droughts increased potential fire intensity by 226 kW m-1 and 494 kW m-1, respectively. These increases were due primarily to increased understory dryness (109 kW m-1 in 2005; 124 kW m-1 in 2010) and altered forest structure (117 kW m-1 in 2005; 370 kW m-1 in 2010) effects. Combined, these historic droughts drove total simulated reductions in live carbon stocks of 0.016 (2005) and 0.027 (2010) PgC across the Amazon Basin. Projected increases in future fire intensity increased simulated carbon losses by up to 90% per unit area burned, compared with modern climate. Increased air temperature was the primary driver of changes in simulated future fire intensity, while reduced precipitation was secondary, particularly in the eastern portion of the Basin. Our results show that fire-drought interactions strongly affect live carbon stocks and that future climate change, combined with the synergistic effects of drought on forest flammability, may strongly influence the stability of tropical forests in the future.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Long-term impacts of recurrent logging and fire in Amazon forests: a modeling study using the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, M.; Keller, M.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Xu, Y.; Huang, M.; Morton, D. C.

2017-12-01

Logging and understory fires are major drivers of tropical forest degradation, reducing carbon stocks and changing forest structure, composition, and dynamics. In contrast to deforested areas, sites that are disturbed by logging and fires retain some, albeit severely altered, forest structure and function. In this study we simulated selective logging using the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED-2) to investigate the impact of a broad range of logging techniques, harvest intensities, and recurrence cycles on the long-term dynamics of Amazon forests, including the magnitude and duration of changes in forest flammability following timber extraction. Model results were evaluated using eddy covariance towers at logged sites at the Tapajos National Forest in Brazil and data on long-term dynamics reported in the literature. ED-2 is able to reproduce both the fast (< 5yr) recovery of water, energy fluxes compared to flux tower, and the typical, field-observed, decadal time scales for biomass recovery when no additional logging occurs. Preliminary results using the original ED-2 fire model show that canopy cover loss of forests under high-intensity, conventional logging cause sufficient drying to support more intense fires. These results indicate that under intense degradation, forests may shift to novel disturbance regimes, severely reducing carbon stocks, and inducing long-term changes in forest structure and composition from recurrent fires.

Firing rate dynamics in recurrent spiking neural networks with intrinsic and network heterogeneity.

PubMed

Ly, Cheng

2015-12-01

Heterogeneity of neural attributes has recently gained a lot of attention and is increasing recognized as a crucial feature in neural processing. Despite its importance, this physiological feature has traditionally been neglected in theoretical studies of cortical neural networks. Thus, there is still a lot unknown about the consequences of cellular and circuit heterogeneity in spiking neural networks. In particular, combining network or synaptic heterogeneity and intrinsic heterogeneity has yet to be considered systematically despite the fact that both are known to exist and likely have significant roles in neural network dynamics. In a canonical recurrent spiking neural network model, we study how these two forms of heterogeneity lead to different distributions of excitatory firing rates. To analytically characterize how these types of heterogeneities affect the network, we employ a dimension reduction method that relies on a combination of Monte Carlo simulations and probability density function equations. We find that the relationship between intrinsic and network heterogeneity has a strong effect on the overall level of heterogeneity of the firing rates. Specifically, this relationship can lead to amplification or attenuation of firing rate heterogeneity, and these effects depend on whether the recurrent network is firing asynchronously or rhythmically firing. These observations are captured with the aforementioned reduction method, and furthermore simpler analytic descriptions based on this dimension reduction method are developed. The final analytic descriptions provide compact and descriptive formulas for how the relationship between intrinsic and network heterogeneity determines the firing rate heterogeneity dynamics in various settings.

The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaste, Emeline; Girardin, Martin P.; Kaplan, Jed O.; Portier, Jeanne; Bergeron, Yves; Hély, Christelle

2018-03-01

Wildland fires are the main natural disturbance shaping forest structure and composition in eastern boreal Canada. On average, more than 700 000 ha of forest burns annually and causes as much as CAD 2.9 million worth of damage. Although we know that occurrence of fires depends upon the coincidence of favourable conditions for fire ignition, propagation, and fuel availability, the interplay between these three drivers in shaping spatiotemporal patterns of fires in eastern Canada remains to be evaluated. The goal of this study was to reconstruct the spatiotemporal patterns of fire activity during the last century in eastern Canada's boreal forest as a function of changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation. We addressed this objective using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-LMfire, which we parametrized for four plant functional types (PFTs) that correspond to the prevalent tree genera in eastern boreal Canada (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus). LPJ-LMfire was run with a monthly time step from 1901 to 2012 on a 10 km2 resolution grid covering the boreal forest from Manitoba to Newfoundland. Outputs of LPJ-LMfire were analyzed in terms of fire frequency, net primary productivity (NPP), and aboveground biomass. The predictive skills of LPJ-LMfire were examined by comparing our simulations of annual burn rates and biomass with independent data sets. The simulation adequately reproduced the latitudinal gradient in fire frequency in Manitoba and the longitudinal gradient from Manitoba towards southern Ontario, as well as the temporal patterns present in independent fire histories. However, the simulation led to the underestimation and overestimation of fire frequency at both the northern and southern limits of the boreal forest in Québec. The general pattern of simulated total tree biomass also agreed well with observations, with the notable exception of overestimated biomass at the northern treeline, mainly for PFT Picea. In these northern areas, the predictive ability of LPJ-LMfire is likely being affected by the low density of weather stations, which leads to underestimation of the strength of fire-weather interactions and, therefore, vegetation consumption during extreme fire years. Agreement between the spatiotemporal patterns of fire frequency and the observed data across a vast portion of the study area confirmed that fire therein is strongly ignition limited. A drier climate coupled with an increase in lightning frequency during the second half of the 20th century notably led to an increase in fire activity. Finally, our simulations highlighted the importance of both climate and fire in vegetation: despite an overarching CO2-induced enhancement of NPP in LPJ-LMfire, forest biomass was relatively stable because of the compensatory effects of increasing fire activity.

Climate- and disturbance-driven changes in vegetation composition and structure limit future potential carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henne, Paul D.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhao, Feng; Huang, Chengquan; Berryman, Erin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang

2016-04-01

The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) provides unique opportunities to understand how changing climate, land use, and disturbance affect ecosystem carbon balance. The GYE is one of the largest, most intact ecosystems in the United States. However, distinct management histories on National Park, National Forest, and private lands, elevational climate gradients, and variable fire activity, have created a mosaic of stand ages and forest types. It is uncertain how greenhouse forcing may alter the carbon balance of the GYE. Whereas increasing temperatures may enhance productivity and perpetuate the GYE as a carbon sink, climate-driven increases in fire frequency may offset productivity gains by limiting biomass accumulation. We investigated how changes in fire frequency and size may affect vegetation dynamics and carbon sequestration potential in the GYE using the LANDIS-II dynamic landscape vegetation model. LANDIS-II provides sufficient spatial resolution to capture landscape-level variation in forest biomass and forest types (i.e. 90 × 90 m grid cells), but can integrate disturbance regimes and vegetation dynamics across the entire GYE (92,000 km2). We initiated our simulations with biomass and stand conditions that preceded the exceptional 1988 fire, when 16% of the GYE burned. We inferred the biomass, species abundances, and stand demographics of each model cell by combining satellite imagery with forest inventory data, and developed two fire regime scenarios from historical fire records. We developed a historic wildfire scenario with infrequent fires by excluding 1988 from our calibration of fire sizes and frequencies, and a future scenario with more frequent and larger fires by including 1988 in our calibrations. Fire frequency increased in all forest types in our future scenario, with a 152% increase in the annual forest area burned relative to observed area burned during recent decades. However, the changes in fire frequency varied among forest types, with the largest increases in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta; 332% increase) and spruce/fir (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa; 243% increase) stands. In model runs with the historic fire regime, average stand age and live biomass remained consistent with pre-1988 values during the 200-year simulation period; biomass increased significantly only in recently-logged areas. In contrast, a marked shift to younger stands with lower biomass occurred in the future fire scenario. Average stand age declined from 112 years to 31 years in lodgepole pine stands, and from 191 years to 65 years in spruce/fir stands, with consequent reductions in living biomass. A smaller shift in stand age was simulated for douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands (i.e. 121 to 92 years). These fire-driven changes in stand age and biomass coincided with important shifts in species abundances. Specifically, lodgepole pine stands replaced large areas previously dominated by spruce and fir. Our results suggest that the potential for increasing the amount of fossil fuel emissions offset by carbon sequestration on public lands in the American West is limited by ongoing changes in disturbance regimes. Instead, land managers may need to consider strategies to adapt to climate change impacts.

On wildfire complexity, simple models and environmental templates for fire size distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, M. M.; Bradstock, R.; Gill, M.; Sadler, R.

2012-12-01

Vegetation fires affect some 370 Mha annually. At global and continental scales, fire activity follows predictable spatiotemporal patterns driven by gradients and seasonal fluctuations of primary productivity and evaporative demand that set constraints for fuel accumulation rates and fuel dryness, two key ingredients of fire. At regional scales, fires are also known to affect some landscapes more than others and within landscapes to occur preferentially in some sectors (e.g. wind-swept ridges) and rarely in others (e.g. wet gullies). Another common observation is that small fires occur relatively frequent yet collectively burn far less country than relatively infrequent large fires. These patterns of fire activity are well known to management agencies and consistent with their (informal) models of how the basic drivers and constraints of fire (i.e. fuels, ignitions, weather) vary in time and space across the landscape. The statistical behaviour of these landscape fire patterns has excited the (academic) research community by showing some consistency with that of complex dynamical systems poised at a phase transition. The common finding that the frequency-size distributions of actual fires follow power laws that resemble those produced by simple cellular models from statistical mechanics has been interpreted as evidence that flammable landscapes operate as self-organising systems with scale invariant fire size distributions emerging 'spontaneously' from simple rules of contagious fire spread and a strong feedback between fires and fuel patterns. In this paper we argue that the resemblance of simulated and actual fire size distributions is an example of equifinality, that is fires in model landscapes and actual landscapes may show similar statistical behaviour but this is reached by qualitatively different pathways or controlling mechanisms. We support this claim with two key findings regarding simulated fire spread mechanisms and fire-fuel feedbacks. Firstly, we demonstrate that the power law behaviour of fire size distributions in the widely used Drossel and Schwabl (1992) Forest Fire Model (FFM) is strictly conditional on simulating fire spread as a cell-to-cell contagion over a fixed distance; the invariant scaling of fire sizes breaks down under the slightest variation in that distance, suggesting that pattern formation in the FFM is irreconcilable with the reality of disparate rates and modes of fire spread observed in the field. Secondly, we review field evidence showing that fuel age effects on the probability of fire spread, a key assumption in simulation models like the FFM, do not generally apply across flammable environments. Finally, we explore alternative explanations for the formation of scale invariant fire sizes in real landscapes. Using observations from southern Australian forest regions we demonstrate that the spatiotemporal patterns of fuel dryness and magnitudes of fire driving weather events set strong environmental templates for regional fire size distributions.

Colored noise and a stochastic fractional model for correlated inputs and adaptation in neuronal firing.

PubMed

Pirozzi, Enrica

2018-04-01

High variability in the neuronal response to stimulations and the adaptation phenomenon cannot be explained by the standard stochastic leaky integrate-and-fire model. The main reason is that the uncorrelated inputs involved in the model are not realistic. There exists some form of dependency between the inputs, and it can be interpreted as memory effects. In order to include these physiological features in the standard model, we reconsider it with time-dependent coefficients and correlated inputs. Due to its hard mathematical tractability, we perform simulations of it for a wide investigation of its output. A Gauss-Markov process is constructed for approximating its non-Markovian dynamics. The first passage time probability density of such a process can be numerically evaluated, and it can be used to fit the histograms of simulated firing times. Some estimates of the moments of firing times are also provided. The effect of the correlation time of the inputs on firing densities and on firing rates is shown. An exponential probability density of the first firing time is estimated for low values of input current and high values of correlation time. For comparison, a simulation-based investigation is also carried out for a fractional stochastic model that allows to preserve the memory of the time evolution of the neuronal membrane potential. In this case, the memory parameter that affects the firing activity is the fractional derivative order. In both models an adaptation level of spike frequency is attained, even if along different modalities. Comparisons and discussion of the obtained results are provided.

Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

2015-01-01

An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

Effects of self-coupling and asymmetric output on metastable dynamical transient firing patterns in arrays of neurons with bidirectional inhibitory coupling.

PubMed

Horikawa, Yo

2016-04-01

Metastable dynamical transient patterns in arrays of bidirectionally coupled neurons with self-coupling and asymmetric output were studied. First, an array of asymmetric sigmoidal neurons with symmetric inhibitory bidirectional coupling and self-coupling was considered and the bifurcations of its steady solutions were shown. Metastable dynamical transient spatially nonuniform states existed in the presence of a pair of spatially symmetric stable solutions as well as unstable spatially nonuniform solutions in a restricted range of the output gain of a neuron. The duration of the transients increased exponentially with the number of neurons up to the maximum number at which the spatially nonuniform steady solutions were stabilized. The range of the output gain for which they existed reduced as asymmetry in a sigmoidal output function of a neuron increased, while the existence range expanded as the strength of inhibitory self-coupling increased. Next, arrays of spiking neuron models with slow synaptic inhibitory bidirectional coupling and self-coupling were considered with computer simulation. In an array of Class 1 Hindmarsh-Rose type models, in which each neuron showed a graded firing rate, metastable dynamical transient firing patterns were observed in the presence of inhibitory self-coupling. This agreed with the condition for the existence of metastable dynamical transients in an array of sigmoidal neurons. In an array of Class 2 Bonhoeffer-van der Pol models, in which each neuron had a clear threshold between firing and resting, long-lasting transient firing patterns with bursting and irregular motion were observed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of Acoustics for Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, Gabriel; Strutzenberg, Louise L.

2011-01-01

The Ares I Scale Model Acoustics Test (ASMAT) is a series of live-fire tests of scaled rocket motors meant to simulate the conditions of the Ares I launch configuration. These tests have provided a well documented set of high fidelity acoustic measurements useful for validation including data taken over a range of test conditions and containing phenomena like Ignition Over-Pressure and water suppression of acoustics. To take advantage of this data, a digital representation of the ASMAT test setup has been constructed and test firings of the motor have been simulated using the Loci/CHEM computational fluid dynamics software. Results from ASMAT simulations with the rocket in both held down and elevated configurations, as well as with and without water suppression have been compared to acoustic data collected from similar live-fire tests. Results of acoustic comparisons have shown good correlation with the amplitude and temporal shape of pressure features and reasonable spectral accuracy up to approximately 1000 Hz. Major plume and acoustic features have been well captured including the plume shock structure, the igniter pulse transient, and the ignition overpressure.

Comparison of Interglacial fire dynamics in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Daniau, Anne-Laure

2016-04-01

Responses of fire activity to a change in climate are still uncertain and biases exist by integrating this non-linear process into global modeling of the Earth system. Warming and regional drying can force fire activity in two opposite directions: an increase in fire in fuel supported ecosystems or a fire reduction in fuel-limited ecosystems. Therefore, climate variables alone can not be used to estimate the fire risk because vegetation variability is an important determinant of fire dynamics and responds itself to change in climate. Southern Africa (south of 20°S) paleofire history reconstruction obtained from the analysis of microcharcoal preserved in a deep-sea core located off Namibia reveals changes of fire activity on orbital timescales in the precession band. In particular, increase in fire is observed during glacial periods, and reduction of fire during interglacials such as the Eemian and the Holocene. The Holocene was characterized by even lower level of fire activity than Eemian. Those results suggest the alternance of grass-fueled fires during glacials driven by increase in moisture and the development of limited fueled ecosystems during interglacials characterized by dryness. Those results question the simulated increase in the fire risk probability projected for this region under a warming and drying climate obtained by Pechony and Schindell (2010). To explore the validity of the hypotheses we conducted a data-model comparison for both interglacials from 126.000 to 115.000 BP for the Eemian and from 8.000 to 2.000 BP for the Holocene. Data out of a transient, global modeling study with a Vegetation-Fire model of full complexity (JSBACH) is used, driven by a Climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER). Climate data like precipitation and temperature as well as vegetation data like soil moisture, productivity (NPP) on plant functional type level are used to explain trends in fire activity. The comparison of trends in fire activity during the Eemian (126.000 to 120.000 BP) and the Holocene (8.000 to 200 BP) shows an increase in fire data and in simulated fire. Lower level of fire during the Holocene than Eemian can be explained by differences due to unequal trends in vegetation as a result of climate forcing due to orbital changes: while woody type vegetation plays a major role during the Eemian, the Holocene is influenced by grass land. From the modelling perspective changes in the seasonal precipitation drives the vegetation pattern.

[Simulating the effects of climate change and fire disturbance on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Luo, Xu; Wang, Yu Li; Zhang, Jin Quan

2018-03-01

Predicting the effects of climate warming and fire disturbance on forest aboveground biomass is a central task of studies in terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The alteration of temperature, precipitation, and disturbance regimes induced by climate warming will affect the carbon dynamics of forest ecosystem. Boreal forest is an important forest type in China, the responses of which to climate warming and fire disturbance are increasingly obvious. In this study, we used a forest landscape model LANDIS PRO to simulate the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared direct effects of climate warming and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on forest aboveground biomass. The results showed that the aboveground biomass in this area increased under climate warming scenarios and fire disturbance scenarios with increased intensity. Under the current climate and fire regime scenario, the aboveground biomass in this area was (97.14±5.78) t·hm -2 , and the value would increase up to (97.93±5.83) t·hm -2 under the B1F2 scenario. Under the A2F3 scenario, aboveground biomass at landscape scale was relatively higher at the simulated periods of year 100-150 and year 150-200, and the value were (100.02±3.76) t·hm -2 and (110.56±4.08) t·hm -2 , respectively. Compared to the current fire regime scenario, the predicted biomass at landscape scale was increased by (0.56±1.45) t·hm -2 under the CF2 scenario (fire intensity increased by 30%) at some simulated periods, and the aboveground biomass was reduced by (7.39±1.79) t·hm -2 in CF3 scenario (fire intensity increased by 230%) at the entire simulation period. There were significantly different responses between coniferous and broadleaved species under future climate warming scenarios, in that the simulated biomass for both Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla showed decreasing trend with climate change, whereas the simulated biomass for Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica, Picea koraiensis and Populus davidiana showed increasing trend at different degrees during the entire simulation period. There was a time lag for the direct effect of climate warming on biomass for coniferous and broadleaved species. The response time of coniferous species to climate warming was 25-30 years, which was longer than that for broadleaf species. The forest landscape in the Great Xing'an Mountains was sensitive to the interactive effect of climate warming (high CO 2 emissions) and high intensity fire disturbance. Future climate warming and high intensity forest fire disturbance would significantly change the composition and structure of forest ecosystem.

A New Approach for Determining Phase Response Curves Reveals that Purkinje Cells Can Act as Perfect Integrators

PubMed Central

Roth, Arnd; Häusser, Michael

2010-01-01

Cerebellar Purkinje cells display complex intrinsic dynamics. They fire spontaneously, exhibit bistability, and via mutual network interactions are involved in the generation of high frequency oscillations and travelling waves of activity. To probe the dynamical properties of Purkinje cells we measured their phase response curves (PRCs). PRCs quantify the change in spike phase caused by a stimulus as a function of its temporal position within the interspike interval, and are widely used to predict neuronal responses to more complex stimulus patterns. Significant variability in the interspike interval during spontaneous firing can lead to PRCs with a low signal-to-noise ratio, requiring averaging over thousands of trials. We show using electrophysiological experiments and simulations that the PRC calculated in the traditional way by sampling the interspike interval with brief current pulses is biased. We introduce a corrected approach for calculating PRCs which eliminates this bias. Using our new approach, we show that Purkinje cell PRCs change qualitatively depending on the firing frequency of the cell. At high firing rates, Purkinje cells exhibit single-peaked, or monophasic PRCs. Surprisingly, at low firing rates, Purkinje cell PRCs are largely independent of phase, resembling PRCs of ideal non-leaky integrate-and-fire neurons. These results indicate that Purkinje cells can act as perfect integrators at low firing rates, and that the integration mode of Purkinje cells depends on their firing rate. PMID:20442875

Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Jason A.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.

2017-01-01

We present landscape simulation results contrasting effects of changing climates on forest vegetation and fire regimes in Yellowstone National Park, USA, by mid-21st century. We simulated potential changes to fire dynamics and forest characteristics under three future climate projections representing a range of potential future conditions using the FireBGCv2 model. Under the future climate scenarios with moderate warming (>2°C) and moderate increases in precipitation (3–5%), model simulations resulted in 1.2–4.2 times more burned area, decreases in forest cover (10–44%), and reductions in basal area (14–60%). In these same scenarios, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) decreased in basal area (18–41%), while Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) basal area increased (21–58%). Conversely, mild warming (<2°C) coupled with greater increases in precipitation (12–13%) suggested an increase in forest cover and basal area by mid-century, with spruce and subalpine fir increasing in abundance. Overall, we found changes in forest tree species compositions were caused by the climate-mediated changes in fire regime (56–315% increase in annual area burned). Simulated changes in forest composition and fire regime under warming climates portray a landscape that shifts from lodgepole pine to Douglas-fir caused by the interaction between the magnitude and seasonality of future climate changes, by climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of wildfires, and by tree species response.

Historical fire and vegetation dynamics in dry forests of the interior Pacific Northwest, USA, and relationships to northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat conservation

Treesearch

Rebecca S.H. Kennedy; Michael C. Wimberly

2009-01-01

Regional conservation planning frequently relies on general assumptions about historical disturbance regimes to inform decisions about landscape restoration, reserve allocations, and landscape management. Spatially explicit simulations of landscape dynamics provide quantitative estimates of landscape structure and allow for the testing of alternative scenarios. We used...

Mean field model of acetylcholine mediated dynamics in the cerebral cortex.

PubMed

Clearwater, J M; Rennie, C J; Robinson, P A

2007-12-01

A recent continuum model of the large scale electrical activity of the cerebral cortex is generalized to include cholinergic modulation. In this model, dynamic modulation of synaptic strength acts over the time scales of nicotinic and muscarinic receptor action. The cortical model is analyzed to determine the effect of acetylcholine (ACh) on its steady states, linear stability, spectrum, and temporal responses to changes in subcortical input. ACh increases the firing rate in steady states of the system. Changing ACh concentration does not introduce oscillatory behavior into the system, but increases the overall spectral power. Model responses to pulses in subcortical input are affected by the tonic level of ACh concentration, with higher levels of ACh increasing the magnitude firing rate response of excitatory cortical neurons to pulses of subcortical input. Numerical simulations are used to explore the temporal dynamics of the model in response to changes in ACh concentration. Evidence is seen of a transition from a state in which intracortical inputs are emphasized to a state where thalamic afferents have enhanced influence. Perturbations in ACh concentration cause changes in the firing rate of cortical neurons, with rapid responses due to fast acting facilitatory effects of nicotinic receptors on subcortical afferents, and slower responses due to muscarinic suppression of intracortical connections. Together, these numerical simulations demonstrate that the actions of ACh could be a significant factor modulating early components of evoked response potentials.

Pedestrian evacuation at the subway station under fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao-Xia, Yang; Hai-Rong, Dong; Xiu-Ming, Yao; Xu-Bin, Sun

2016-04-01

With the development of urban rail transit, ensuring the safe evacuation of pedestrians at subway stations has become an important issue in the case of an emergency such as a fire. This paper chooses the platform of line 4 at the Beijing Xuanwumen subway station to study the emergency evacuation process under fire. Based on the established platform, effects of the fire dynamics, different initial pedestrian densities, and positions of fire on evacuation are investigated. According to simulation results, it is found that the fire increases the air temperature and the smoke density, and decreases pedestrians’ visibility and walking velocity. Also, there is a critical initial density at the platform if achieving a safe evacuation within the required 6 minutes. Furthermore, different positions of fire set in this paper have little difference on crowd evacuation if the fire is not large enough. The suggestions provided in this paper are helpful for the subway operators to prevent major casualties. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61322307 and 61233001).

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA.

PubMed

Carlson, Chris H; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Safford, Hugh D

2012-06-28

Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration. We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10-35 years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high. Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks.

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration. Results We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10–35 years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high. Conclusions Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks. PMID:22741762

Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cooke, William H.; Mostovoy, Georgy; Anantharaj, Valentine G

2012-01-01

Three fire risk indexes based on soil moisture estimates were applied to simulate wildfire probability over the southern part of Mississippi using the logistic regression approach. The fire indexes were retrieved from: (1) accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-E); (2) top 10 cm soil moisture content simulated by the Mosaic land surface model; and (3) the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI). The P-E, KBDI, and soil moisture based indexes were estimated from gridded atmospheric and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Normalized deviations of these indexes from the 31-year meanmore » (1980-2010) were fitted into the logistic regression model describing probability of wildfires occurrence as a function of the fire index. It was assumed that such normalization provides more robust and adequate description of temporal dynamics of soil moisture anomalies than the original (not normalized) set of indexes. The logistic model parameters were evaluated for 0.25 x0.25 latitude/longitude cells and for probability representing at least one fire event occurred during 5 consecutive days. A 23-year (1986-2008) forest fires record was used. Two periods were selected and examined (January mid June and mid September December). The application of the logistic model provides an overall good agreement between empirical/observed and model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire risk indexes based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI have the largest impact on the wildfire odds (increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire risk index during January mid June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid September-December) observed over 0.25 x0.25 cells located along the state of Mississippi Coast line. This result suggests a rather strong control of fire risk indexes on fire occurrence probability over this region.« less

Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.

2017-09-01

Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.

Fire modeling in a nonventilated corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lulea, Marius Dorin; Iordache, Vlad; Năstase, Ilinca

2018-02-01

The main objective of this study was to determine the effect of fire in a nonventilated corridor. A real-scale model of a corridor has been modeled in Fire Dynamics Simulator(F.D.S.) in order to determine the evolution of indoor temperatures, the visibility and the oxygen quantities during a fire. The start time of a sprinkler has also been determined. The use of sprinklers in buildings has become a necessity and a requirement imposed by technical norms. The provision of this type of installation has become a common feature in buildings with a high fire risk, with two main effects: fire extinction and protection of structural and partition elements from high temperatures[15]. The ultimate goal is to ensure optimal conditions for saving the building users, intervention teams and maintaining the stability of the building. Low temperatures and good visibility on the escape routes during a fire are the basic conditions to ensure the optimal evacuation of users.

Analytical approximation of a stochastic, spatial simulation model of fire and forest landscape dynamics

Treesearch

A.J. Tepley; E.A. Thomann

2012-01-01

Recent increases in computation power have prompted enormous growth in the use of simulation models in ecological research. These models are valued for their ability to account for much of the ecological complexity found in field studies, but this ability usually comes at the cost of losing transparency into how the models work. In order to foster greater understanding...

Formation of globular cluster candidates in merging proto-galaxies at high redshift: a view from the FIRE cosmological simulations

DOE PAGES

Kim, Ji-hoon; Ma, Xiangcheng; Grudić, Michael Y.; ...

2017-11-23

Using a state-of-the-art cosmological simulation of merging proto-galaxies at high redshift from the FIRE project, with explicit treatments of star formation and stellar feedback in the interstellar medium, we investigate the formation of star clusters and examine one of the formation hypotheses of present-day metal-poor globular clusters. Here, we find that frequent mergers in high-redshift proto-galaxies could provide a fertile environment to produce long-lasting bound star clusters. The violent merger event disturbs the gravitational potential and pushes a large gas mass of ≳ 10 5–6 M ⊙ collectively to high density, at which point it rapidly turns into stars beforemore » stellar feedback can stop star formation. The high dynamic range of the reported simulation is critical in realizing such dense star-forming clouds with a small dynamical time-scale, tff ≲ 3 Myr, shorter than most stellar feedback time-scales. Our simulation then allows us to trace how clusters could become virialized and tightly bound to survive for up to ~420 Myr till the end of the simulation. Finally, because the cluster's tightly bound core was formed in one short burst, and the nearby older stars originally grouped with the cluster tend to be preferentially removed, at the end of the simulation the cluster has a small age spread.« less

Formation of globular cluster candidates in merging proto-galaxies at high redshift: a view from the FIRE cosmological simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Ji-hoon; Ma, Xiangcheng; Grudić, Michael Y.

Using a state-of-the-art cosmological simulation of merging proto-galaxies at high redshift from the FIRE project, with explicit treatments of star formation and stellar feedback in the interstellar medium, we investigate the formation of star clusters and examine one of the formation hypotheses of present-day metal-poor globular clusters. Here, we find that frequent mergers in high-redshift proto-galaxies could provide a fertile environment to produce long-lasting bound star clusters. The violent merger event disturbs the gravitational potential and pushes a large gas mass of ≳ 10 5–6 M ⊙ collectively to high density, at which point it rapidly turns into stars beforemore » stellar feedback can stop star formation. The high dynamic range of the reported simulation is critical in realizing such dense star-forming clouds with a small dynamical time-scale, tff ≲ 3 Myr, shorter than most stellar feedback time-scales. Our simulation then allows us to trace how clusters could become virialized and tightly bound to survive for up to ~420 Myr till the end of the simulation. Finally, because the cluster's tightly bound core was formed in one short burst, and the nearby older stars originally grouped with the cluster tend to be preferentially removed, at the end of the simulation the cluster has a small age spread.« less

Formation of globular cluster candidates in merging proto-galaxies at high redshift: a view from the FIRE cosmological simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ji-hoon; Ma, Xiangcheng; Grudić, Michael Y.; Hopkins, Philip F.; Hayward, Christopher C.; Wetzel, Andrew; Faucher-Giguère, Claude-André; Kereš, Dušan; Garrison-Kimmel, Shea; Murray, Norman

2018-03-01

Using a state-of-the-art cosmological simulation of merging proto-galaxies at high redshift from the FIRE project, with explicit treatments of star formation and stellar feedback in the interstellar medium, we investigate the formation of star clusters and examine one of the formation hypotheses of present-day metal-poor globular clusters. We find that frequent mergers in high-redshift proto-galaxies could provide a fertile environment to produce long-lasting bound star clusters. The violent merger event disturbs the gravitational potential and pushes a large gas mass of ≳ 105-6 M⊙ collectively to high density, at which point it rapidly turns into stars before stellar feedback can stop star formation. The high dynamic range of the reported simulation is critical in realizing such dense star-forming clouds with a small dynamical time-scale, tff ≲ 3 Myr, shorter than most stellar feedback time-scales. Our simulation then allows us to trace how clusters could become virialized and tightly bound to survive for up to ˜420 Myr till the end of the simulation. Because the cluster's tightly bound core was formed in one short burst, and the nearby older stars originally grouped with the cluster tend to be preferentially removed, at the end of the simulation the cluster has a small age spread.

Using Computational Fluid Dynamics in the forensic analysis of a prison fire.

PubMed

Jahn, Wolfram; Gonzalez, Orelvis; de Dios Rivera, Juan; Torero, José Luis

2015-08-01

On the 8th of December of 2010 a fire killed 81 inmates in a Chilean prison. While the collected evidence (including eye witness' accounts) indicated an intentional fire, started by a group of inmates who were fighting against another group and who ignited a mattress and threw it over a bunk bed inside the cell, it could not be established how fast the fire grew and whether the prison guards acted promptly enough to prevent the tragedy. In this context, the public defender office in charge of the case requested an independent investigation in order to determine the approximated time the fire started, and the temperature evolution of the padlocks at the cell doors during the initial stage, based on the construction characteristics of the prison, the existing materials and the evidence collected during the investigation. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) were used to analyse the movement of the smoke and to match the first appearance of smoke on CCTV recordings at locations away from the fire, allowing for the estimation of the time-line of events. The padlock temperatures as a result of hot gases from the fire was also simulated. It was shown that the fire grew quickly and became uncontrollable before the guards could intervene. By the time the guards arrived at the cells' door, the padlocks were shown to be too hot to be handled without protection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding the interaction between wild fire and vegetation distribution within the NCAR CESM framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, H.; Kim, Y.; Kim, H. J.

2017-12-01

Every year wild fire brings about 400Mha of land burned therefore 2Pg of carbon emissions from the surface occur. In this way fire not only affects the carbon circulation but also has an effect on the terrestrial ecosystems. This study aims to understand role of fire on the geographic vegetation distribution and the terrestrial carbon balances within the NCAR CESM framework, specifically with the CLM-BGC and CLM-BGC-DV. Global climate data from Climate Research Unit (CRU)-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data ranging from 1901 to 2010 are used to drive the land models. First, by comparing fire-on and fire-off simulations with the CLM-BGC-DV, the fire impacts in dynamic vegetation are quantified by the fractional land areas of the different plant functional types. In addition, we examine how changes in vegetation distribution affect the total sum of the burned areas and the carbon balances. This study would provide the limits of and suggestions for the fire and dynamic vegetation modules of the CLM-BGC. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

Computational Pollutant Environment Assessment from Propulsion-System Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See; McConnaughey, Paul; Chen, Yen-Sen; Warsi, Saif

1996-01-01

An asymptotic plume growth method based on a time-accurate three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics formulation has been developed to assess the exhaust-plume pollutant environment from a simulated RD-170 engine hot-fire test on the F1 Test Stand at Marshall Space Flight Center. Researchers have long known that rocket-engine hot firing has the potential for forming thermal nitric oxides, as well as producing carbon monoxide when hydrocarbon fuels are used. Because of the complex physics involved, most attempts to predict the pollutant emissions from ground-based engine testing have used simplified methods, which may grossly underpredict and/or overpredict the pollutant formations in a test environment. The objective of this work has been to develop a computational fluid dynamics-based methodology that replicates the underlying test-stand flow physics to accurately and efficiently assess pollutant emissions from ground-based rocket-engine testing. A nominal RD-170 engine hot-fire test was computed, and pertinent test-stand flow physics was captured. The predicted total emission rates compared reasonably well with those of the existing hydrocarbon engine hot-firing test data.

Transition to Chaos in Random Neuronal Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadmon, Jonathan; Sompolinsky, Haim

2015-10-01

Firing patterns in the central nervous system often exhibit strong temporal irregularity and considerable heterogeneity in time-averaged response properties. Previous studies suggested that these properties are the outcome of the intrinsic chaotic dynamics of the neural circuits. Indeed, simplified rate-based neuronal networks with synaptic connections drawn from Gaussian distribution and sigmoidal nonlinearity are known to exhibit chaotic dynamics when the synaptic gain (i.e., connection variance) is sufficiently large. In the limit of an infinitely large network, there is a sharp transition from a fixed point to chaos, as the synaptic gain reaches a critical value. Near the onset, chaotic fluctuations are slow, analogous to the ubiquitous, slow irregular fluctuations observed in the firing rates of many cortical circuits. However, the existence of a transition from a fixed point to chaos in neuronal circuit models with more realistic architectures and firing dynamics has not been established. In this work, we investigate rate-based dynamics of neuronal circuits composed of several subpopulations with randomly diluted connections. Nonzero connections are either positive for excitatory neurons or negative for inhibitory ones, while single neuron output is strictly positive with output rates rising as a power law above threshold, in line with known constraints in many biological systems. Using dynamic mean field theory, we find the phase diagram depicting the regimes of stable fixed-point, unstable-dynamic, and chaotic-rate fluctuations. We focus on the latter and characterize the properties of systems near this transition. We show that dilute excitatory-inhibitory architectures exhibit the same onset to chaos as the single population with Gaussian connectivity. In these architectures, the large mean excitatory and inhibitory inputs dynamically balance each other, amplifying the effect of the residual fluctuations. Importantly, the existence of a transition to chaos and its critical properties depend on the shape of the single-neuron nonlinear input-output transfer function, near firing threshold. In particular, for nonlinear transfer functions with a sharp rise near threshold, the transition to chaos disappears in the limit of a large network; instead, the system exhibits chaotic fluctuations even for small synaptic gain. Finally, we investigate transition to chaos in network models with spiking dynamics. We show that when synaptic time constants are slow relative to the mean inverse firing rates, the network undergoes a transition from fast spiking fluctuations with constant rates to a state where the firing rates exhibit chaotic fluctuations, similar to the transition predicted by rate-based dynamics. Systems with finite synaptic time constants and firing rates exhibit a smooth transition from a regime dominated by stationary firing rates to a regime of slow rate fluctuations. This smooth crossover obeys scaling properties, similar to crossover phenomena in statistical mechanics. The theoretical results are supported by computer simulations of several neuronal architectures and dynamics. Consequences for cortical circuit dynamics are discussed. These results advance our understanding of the properties of intrinsic dynamics in realistic neuronal networks and their functional consequences.

Simulating fire-induced ecological succession with the dynamically coupled fire-vegetation model, ED-SPIFTIRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, A.; Fisher, R.

2009-04-01

The simulation of fire-vegetation feedbacks is crucial for determining fire-induced changes to ecosystem structure and function, and emissions of trace gases and aerosols under future climate change. A new global fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) has been designed to overcome many of the limitations in existing fire models set within DGVM frameworks (Thonicke et al. 2008). SPITFIRE has been applied in coupled mode globally (Thonicke et al. 2008) and northern Australia (Spessa et al. unpubl.) as part of the LPJ DGVM. It has also been driven with MODIS burnt area data applied to sub-Saharan Africa (Lehsten et al. 2008) as part of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model (Smith et al. 2001). Recently, Spessa & Fisher (unpubl.) completed the coupling of SPIFTIRE to the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model (Moorecroft et al. 2001), which has been globalised by Dr R. Fisher as part of the development of the new land surface scheme JULES (Joint UK Environment Simulator) within the QUEST Earth System Model (http://www.quest-esm.ac.uk/). In contrast to the LPJ DGVM, ED is a ‘size and age structured' approximation of an individual based gap model. The major innovation of the ED-SPITFIRE model compared with LPJ-SPITFIRE is the categorisation of each climatic grid cell into a series of non-spatially contiguous patches which are defined by a common ‘age since last disturbance'. In theory, the age-class structure of ED facilitates ecologically realistic processes of succession and re-growth to be represented. By contrast, LPJ DGVM adopts an ‘area-based approach' that implicitly averages individual and patch differences across a wider area and across ‘populations' of PFTs. This presentation provides an overview of SPITFIRE, and provides preliminary results from ED-SPITFIRE applied to northern Australian savanna ecosystems which, due to spatio-temporal variation in fire disturbance, comprise a patchwork of grasses and trees at different stages of post-fire succession. Comparisons with similar simulations undertaken with LPJ-SPITFIRE are also presented.

FireMap: A Web Tool for Dynamic Data-Driven Predictive Wildfire Modeling Powered by the WIFIRE Cyberinfrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, J.; Crawl, D.; Artes, T.; Cowart, C.; de Callafon, R.; DeFanti, T.; Graham, J.; Smarr, L.; Srivas, T.; Altintas, I.

2016-12-01

The NSF-funded WIFIRE project has designed a web-based wildfire modeling simulation and visualization tool called FireMap. The tool executes FARSITE to model fire propagation using dynamic weather and fire data, configuration settings provided by the user, and static topography and fuel datasets already built-in. Using GIS capabilities combined with scalable big data integration and processing, FireMap enables simple execution of the model with options for running ensembles by taking the information uncertainty into account. The results are easily viewable, sharable, repeatable, and can be animated as a time series. From these capabilities, users can model real-time fire behavior, analyze what-if scenarios, and keep a history of model runs over time for sharing with collaborators. Firemap runs FARSITE with national and local sensor networks for real-time weather data ingestion and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather for forecasted weather. The HRRR is a NOAA/NCEP operational weather prediction system comprised of a numerical forecast model and an analysis/assimilation system to initialize the model. It is run with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, has 50 vertical levels, and has a temporal resolution of 15 minutes. The HRRR requires an Environmental Data Exchange (EDEX) server to receive the feed and generate secondary products out of it for the modeling. UCSD's EDEX server, funded by NSF, makes high-resolution weather data available to researchers worldwide and enables visualization of weather systems and weather events lasting months or even years. The high-speed server aggregates weather data from the University Consortium for Atmospheric Research by way of a subscription service from the Consortium called the Internet Data Distribution system. These features are part of WIFIRE's long term goals to build an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. Although Firemap is a research product of WIFIRE, developed in collaboration with a number of fire departments, the tool is operational in pilot form for providing big data-driven predictive fire spread modeling. Most recently, FireMap was used for situational awareness in the July 2016 Sand Fire by LA City and LA County Fire Departments.

Validation of CFD simulation of recoilless EOD water cannon by firing experiments with high speed camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chantrasmi, Tonkid; Hongthong, Premsiri; Kongkaniti, Manop

2018-01-01

Water cannon used by Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) were designed to propel a burst of water jet moving at high speed to target and disrupt an improvised explosive device (IED). The cannon could be mounted on a remotely controlled robot, so it is highly desirable for the cannon to be recoilless in order not to damage the robot after firing. In the previous work, a nonconventional design of the water cannon was conceived. The recoil was greatly reduced by backward sprays of water through a ring of slotted holes around the muzzle. This minimizes the need to manufacture new parts by utilizing all off-the-shelf components except the tailor-made muzzle. The design was then investigated numerically by a series of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. In this work, high speed camera was employed in firing experiments to capture the motion of the water jet and the backward sprays. It was found that the experimental data agreed well with the simulation results in term of averaged exit velocities.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Based Investigation of Sensitivity of Furnace Operational Conditions to Burner Flow Controls

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marc Cremer; Kirsi St. Marie; Dave Wang

2003-04-30

This is the first Semiannual Technical Report for DOE Cooperative Agreement No: DE-FC26-02NT41580. The goal of this project is to systematically assess the sensitivity of furnace operational conditions to burner air and fuel flows in coal fired utility boilers. Our approach is to utilize existing baseline furnace models that have been constructed using Reaction Engineering International's (REI) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software. Using CFD analyses provides the ability to carry out a carefully controlled virtual experiment to characterize the sensitivity of NOx emissions, unburned carbon (UBC), furnace exit CO (FECO), furnace exit temperature (FEGT), and waterwall deposition to burner flowmore » controls. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is providing co-funding for this program, and instrument and controls experts from EPRI's Instrument and Controls (I&C) Center are active participants in this project. This program contains multiple tasks and good progress is being made on all fronts. A project kickoff meeting was held in conjunction with NETL's 2002 Sensors and Control Program Portfolio Review and Roadmapping Workshop, in Pittsburgh, PA during October 15-16, 2002. Dr. Marc Cremer, REI, and Dr. Paul Wolff, EPRI I&C, both attended and met with the project COR, Susan Maley. Following the review of REI's database of wall-fired coal units, the project team selected a front wall fired 150 MW unit with a Riley Low NOx firing system including overfire air for evaluation. In addition, a test matrix outlining approximately 25 simulations involving variations in burner secondary air flows, and coal and primary air flows was constructed. During the reporting period, twenty-two simulations have been completed, summarized, and tabulated for sensitivity analysis. Based on these results, the team is developing a suitable approach for quantifying the sensitivity coefficients associated with the parametric tests. Some of the results of the CFD simulations of the single wall fired unit were presented in a technical paper entitled, ''CFD Investigation of the Sensitivity of Furnace Operational Conditions to Burner Flow Controls,'' presented at the 28th International Technical Conference on Coal Utilization and Fuel Systems in Clearwater, FL March 9-14, 2003. In addition to the work completed on the single wall fired unit, the project team made the selection of a 580 MW opposed wall fired unit to be the subject of evaluation in this program. Work is in progress to update the baseline model of this unit so that the parametric simulations can be initiated.« less

A National Disturbance Modeling System to Support Ecological Carbon Sequestration Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawbaker, T. J.; Rollins, M. G.; Volegmann, J. E.; Shi, H.; Sohl, T. L.

2009-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is prototyping a methodology to fulfill requirements of Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007. At the core of the EISA requirements is the development of a methodology to complete a two-year assessment of current carbon stocks and other greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, and potential increases for ecological carbon sequestration under a range of future climate changes, land-use / land-cover configurations, and policy, economic and management scenarios. Disturbances, especially fire, affect vegetation dynamics and ecosystem processes, and can also introduce substantial uncertainty and risk to the efficacy of long-term carbon sequestration strategies. Thus, the potential impacts of disturbances need to be considered under different scenarios. As part of USGS efforts to meet EISA requirements, we developed the National Disturbance Modeling System (NDMS) using a series of statistical and process-based simulation models. NDMS produces spatially-explicit forecasts of future disturbance locations and severity, and the resulting effects on vegetation dynamics. NDMS is embedded within the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Cover (FORE-SCE) model and informs the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) for quantifying carbon stocks and GHG fluxes. For fires, NDMS relies on existing disturbance histories, such as the Landsat derived Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) and Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) data being used to update LANDFIRE fuels data. The MTBS and VCT data are used to parameterize models predicting the number and size of fires in relation to climate, land-use/land-cover change, and socioeconomic variables. The locations of individual fire ignitions are determined by an ignition probability surface and then FARSITE is used to simulate fire spread in response to weather, fuels, and topography. Following the fire spread simulations, a burn severity model is used to determine annual changes in biomass pools. Vegetation succession among LANDFIRE vegetation types is initiated using burn perimeter and severity data at the end of each annual simulation. Results from NDMS are used to update land-use/land-cover layers used by FORE-SCE and also transferred to GEMS for quantifying and updating carbon stocks and greenhouse gas fluxes. In this presentation, we present: 1) an overview of NDMS and its role in USGS's national ecological carbon sequestration assessment; 2) validation of NDMS using historic data; and 3) initial forecasts of disturbances for the southeastern United States and their impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, and post-fire carbon stocks and fluxes.

Modeling of fire smoke movement in multizone garments building using two open source platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khandoker, Md. Arifur Rahman; Galib, Musanna; Islam, Adnan; Rahman, Md. Ashiqur

2017-06-01

Casualty of garment factory workers from factory fire in Bangladesh is a recurring tragedy. Smoke, which is more fatal than fire itself, often propagates through different pathways from lower to upper floors during building fire. Among the toxic gases produced from a building fire, carbon monoxide (CO) can be deadly, even in small amounts. This paper models the propagation and transportation of fire induced smoke (CO) that resulted from the burning of synthetic polyester fibers using two open source platforms, CONTAM and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). Smoke migration in a generic multistoried garment factory building in Bangladesh is modeled using CONTAM where each floor is compartmentalized by different zones. The elevator and stairway shafts are modeled by phantom zones to simulate contaminant (CO) transport from one floor to upper floors. FDS analysis involves burning of two different stacks of polyester jacket of six feet height and with a maximum heat release rate per unit area of 1500kw/m2 over a storage area 50m2 and 150m2, respectively. The resulting CO generation and removal rates from FDS are used in CONTAM to predict fire-borne CO propagation in different zones of the garment building. Findings of the study exhibit that the contaminant flow rate is a strong function of the position of building geometry, location of initiation of fire, amount of burnt material, presence of AHU and contaminant generation and removal rate of CO from the source location etc. The transport of fire-smoke in the building Hallways, stairways and lifts are also investigated in detail to examine the safe egress of the occupants in case of fire.

acme: The Amendable Coal-Fire Modeling Exercise. A C++ Class Library for the Numerical Simulation of Coal-Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuttke, Manfred W.

2017-04-01

At LIAG, we use numerical models to develop and enhance understanding of coupled transport processes and to predict the dynamics of the system under consideration. Topics include geothermal heat utilization, subrosion processes, and spontaneous underground coal fires. Although the details make it inconvenient if not impossible to apply a single code implementation to all systems, their investigations go along similar paths: They all depend on the solution of coupled transport equations. We thus saw a need for a modular code system with open access for the various communities to maximize the shared synergistic effects. To this purpose we develop the oops! ( open object-oriented parallel solutions) - toolkit, a C++ class library for the numerical solution of mathematical models of coupled thermal, hydraulic and chemical processes. This is used to develop problem-specific libraries like acme( amendable coal-fire modeling exercise), a class library for the numerical simulation of coal-fires and applications like kobra (Kohlebrand, german for coal-fire), a numerical simulation code for standard coal-fire models. Basic principle of the oops!-code system is the provision of data types for the description of space and time dependent data fields, description of terms of partial differential equations (pde), their discretisation and solving methods. Coupling of different processes, described by their particular pde is modeled by an automatic timescale-ordered operator-splitting technique. acme is a derived coal-fire specific application library, depending on oops!. If specific functionalities of general interest are implemented and have been tested they will be assimilated into the main oops!-library. Interfaces to external pre- and post-processing tools are easily implemented. Thus a construction kit which can be arbitrarily amended is formed. With the kobra-application constructed with acme we study the processes and propagation of shallow coal seam fires in particular in Xinjiang, China, as well as analyze and interpret results from lab experiments.

Event- and Time-Driven Techniques Using Parallel CPU-GPU Co-processing for Spiking Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Naveros, Francisco; Garrido, Jesus A.; Carrillo, Richard R.; Ros, Eduardo; Luque, Niceto R.

2017-01-01

Modeling and simulating the neural structures which make up our central neural system is instrumental for deciphering the computational neural cues beneath. Higher levels of biological plausibility usually impose higher levels of complexity in mathematical modeling, from neural to behavioral levels. This paper focuses on overcoming the simulation problems (accuracy and performance) derived from using higher levels of mathematical complexity at a neural level. This study proposes different techniques for simulating neural models that hold incremental levels of mathematical complexity: leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF), adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire (AdEx), and Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) neural models (ranged from low to high neural complexity). The studied techniques are classified into two main families depending on how the neural-model dynamic evaluation is computed: the event-driven or the time-driven families. Whilst event-driven techniques pre-compile and store the neural dynamics within look-up tables, time-driven techniques compute the neural dynamics iteratively during the simulation time. We propose two modifications for the event-driven family: a look-up table recombination to better cope with the incremental neural complexity together with a better handling of the synchronous input activity. Regarding the time-driven family, we propose a modification in computing the neural dynamics: the bi-fixed-step integration method. This method automatically adjusts the simulation step size to better cope with the stiffness of the neural model dynamics running in CPU platforms. One version of this method is also implemented for hybrid CPU-GPU platforms. Finally, we analyze how the performance and accuracy of these modifications evolve with increasing levels of neural complexity. We also demonstrate how the proposed modifications which constitute the main contribution of this study systematically outperform the traditional event- and time-driven techniques under increasing levels of neural complexity. PMID:28223930

Long term effects of fire on the carbon balance in boreal forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berninger, Frank; Köster, Kaja; Pumpanen, Jukka

2013-04-01

Fire is the primary process which organizes the physical and biological attributes of the boreal biome and influences energy flows and biogeochemical cycles, particularly the carbon and nitrogen cycle. We established a forest fire chronosequence in the northern boreal forest in Lapland (Värriö Strict Nature Reserve), Finland (67°46' N, 29°35' E) that spans 160 years. Soil organic matter and its turnover were measured in and ex situ, as well as biomass of trees. The fungal biomass was assessed using soil ergosterol contents. The results indicate that fires slow down the turnover of soil organic matter for a period of at least 50 years. The turnover rate in recently burnt sites was only half of the turnover of the old forest site. Decreases in the turnover where still substantial 50 years after fire. The slow recovery of fungal biomass after fires seems to be the cause of the decrease since sites with a higher concentration of fungal biomass in the soils had shorter soil organic matter turnover rates. Increases in stand foliar biomass were less important for the turnover of soil organic matter. We tried to explore the potential importance of our finding using a simple data driven simulation model that estimates soil carbon dynamic from litter input and the measured soil carbon turnover times. The results indicate the initial post-fire slowdown of soil carbon turnover is an important component of the boreal carbon cycle. Using our fire intervals the simulated soil carbon stocks with a lower post-fire soil organic matter turnover were up to 15 % larger than simulations assuming a constant carbon turnover rate. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the effects will be larger in areas with frequent fires. We do not know which environmental factors cause the delay in the turnover time and the effects of fires on post fire soil organic matter turnover could be considerably smaller or larger. Altogether our results fit well to published results from laboratory studies and show that post-fire depression of microbial activities are important on the ecosystem and landscape level. Since fire frequencies in boreal forests will increase in many areas as the result of climate change, it will be important to better understand the effects of fire on the soil carbon turnover and to incorporate it into carbon cycle models.

Modeling the Impact of Baryons on Subhalo Populations with Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadler, Ethan O.; Mao, Yao-Yuan; Wechsler, Risa H.; Garrison-Kimmel, Shea; Wetzel, Andrew

2018-06-01

We identify subhalos in dark matter–only (DMO) zoom-in simulations that are likely to be disrupted due to baryonic effects by using a random forest classifier trained on two hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way (MW)–mass host halos from the Latte suite of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We train our classifier using five properties of each disrupted and surviving subhalo: pericentric distance and scale factor at first pericentric passage after accretion and scale factor, virial mass, and maximum circular velocity at accretion. Our five-property classifier identifies disrupted subhalos in the FIRE simulations with an 85% out-of-bag classification score. We predict surviving subhalo populations in DMO simulations of the FIRE host halos, finding excellent agreement with the hydrodynamic results; in particular, our classifier outperforms DMO zoom-in simulations that include the gravitational potential of the central galactic disk in each hydrodynamic simulation, indicating that it captures both the dynamical effects of a central disk and additional baryonic physics. We also predict surviving subhalo populations for a suite of DMO zoom-in simulations of MW-mass host halos, finding that baryons impact each system consistently and that the predicted amount of subhalo disruption is larger than the host-to-host scatter among the subhalo populations. Although the small size and specific baryonic physics prescription of our training set limits the generality of our results, our work suggests that machine-learning classification algorithms trained on hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations can efficiently predict realistic subhalo populations.

A model for the neural control of pineal periodicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira Cruz, Frederico Alan; Soares, Marilia Amavel Gomes; Cortez, Celia Martins

2016-12-01

The aim of this work was verify if a computational model associating the synchronization dynamics of coupling oscillators to a set of synaptic transmission equations would be able to simulate the control of pineal by a complex neural pathway that connects the retina to this gland. Results from the simulations showed that the frequency and temporal firing patterns were in the range of values found in literature.

Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States

Treesearch

LaWen Hollingsworth; James Menakis

2010-01-01

This project mapped wildland fire potential (WFP) for the conterminous United States by using the large fire simulation system developed for Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System. The large fire simulation system, referred to here as LFSim, consists of modules for weather generation, fire occurrence, fire suppression, and fire growth modeling. Weather was generated with...

Synchronization transition of a coupled system composed of neurons with coexisting behaviors near a Hopf bifurcation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Bing

2014-05-01

The coexistence of a resting condition and period-1 firing near a subcritical Hopf bifurcation point, lying between the monostable resting condition and period-1 firing, is often observed in neurons of the central nervous systems. Near such a bifurcation point in the Morris—Lecar (ML) model, the attraction domain of the resting condition decreases while that of the coexisting period-1 firing increases as the bifurcation parameter value increases. With the increase of the coupling strength, and parameter and initial value dependent synchronization transition processes from non-synchronization to compete synchronization are simulated in two coupled ML neurons with coexisting behaviors: one neuron chosen as the resting condition and the other the coexisting period-1 firing. The complete synchronization is either a resting condition or period-1 firing dependent on the initial values of period-1 firing when the bifurcation parameter value is small or middle and is period-1 firing when the parameter value is large. As the bifurcation parameter value increases, the probability of the initial values of a period-1 firing neuron that lead to complete synchronization of period-1 firing increases, while that leading to complete synchronization of the resting condition decreases. It shows that the attraction domain of a coexisting behavior is larger, the probability of initial values leading to complete synchronization of this behavior is higher. The bifurcations of the coupled system are investigated and discussed. The results reveal the complex dynamics of synchronization behaviors of the coupled system composed of neurons with the coexisting resting condition and period-1 firing, and are helpful to further identify the dynamics of the spatiotemporal behaviors of the central nervous system.

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 179 - Procedures for Simulated Pool and Torch-Fire Testing

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... plate. (3) Before exposure to the pool-fire simulation, none of the thermocouples on the thermal... simulated pool fire. (5) A pool-fire simulation test must run for a minimum of 100 minutes. The thermal... three consecutive successful simulation fire tests must be performed for each thermal protection system...

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 179 - Procedures for Simulated Pool and Torch-Fire Testing

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... thermal response of the plate. (3) Before exposure to the pool-fire simulation, none of the thermocouples... exposed to the simulated pool fire. (5) A pool-fire simulation test must run for a minimum of 100 minutes...) A minimum of three consecutive successful simulation fire tests must be performed for each thermal...

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 179 - Procedures for Simulated Pool and Torch-Fire Testing

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... thermal response of the plate. (3) Before exposure to the pool-fire simulation, none of the thermocouples... exposed to the simulated pool fire. (5) A pool-fire simulation test must run for a minimum of 100 minutes...) A minimum of three consecutive successful simulation fire tests must be performed for each thermal...

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 179 - Procedures for Simulated Pool and Torch-Fire Testing

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... plate. (3) Before exposure to the pool-fire simulation, none of the thermocouples on the thermal... simulated pool fire. (5) A pool-fire simulation test must run for a minimum of 100 minutes. The thermal... three consecutive successful simulation fire tests must be performed for each thermal protection system...

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 179 - Procedures for Simulated Pool and Torch-Fire Testing

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... plate. (3) Before exposure to the pool-fire simulation, none of the thermocouples on the thermal... simulated pool fire. (5) A pool-fire simulation test must run for a minimum of 100 minutes. The thermal... three consecutive successful simulation fire tests must be performed for each thermal protection system...

Stochastic representation of fire behavior in a wildland fire protection planning model for California.

Treesearch

J. Keith Gilless; Jeremy S. Fried

1998-01-01

A fire behavior module was developed for the California Fire Economics Simulator version 2 (CFES2), a stochastic simulation model of initial attack on wildland fire used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Fire rate of spread (ROS) and fire dispatch level (FDL) for simulated fires "occurring" on the same day are determined by making...

Continental-scale simulation of burn probabilities, flame lengths, and fire size distribution for the United States

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac Grenfell; Karin L. Riley

2010-01-01

Components of a quantitative risk assessment were produced by simulation of burn probabilities and fire behavior variation for 134 fire planning units (FPUs) across the continental U.S. The system uses fire growth simulation of ignitions modeled from relationships between large fire occurrence and the fire danger index Energy Release Component (ERC). Simulations of 10,...

Synchronization transition in neuronal networks composed of chaotic or non-chaotic oscillators.

PubMed

Xu, Kesheng; Maidana, Jean Paul; Castro, Samy; Orio, Patricio

2018-05-30

Chaotic dynamics has been shown in the dynamics of neurons and neural networks, in experimental data and numerical simulations. Theoretical studies have proposed an underlying role of chaos in neural systems. Nevertheless, whether chaotic neural oscillators make a significant contribution to network behaviour and whether the dynamical richness of neural networks is sensitive to the dynamics of isolated neurons, still remain open questions. We investigated synchronization transitions in heterogeneous neural networks of neurons connected by electrical coupling in a small world topology. The nodes in our model are oscillatory neurons that - when isolated - can exhibit either chaotic or non-chaotic behaviour, depending on conductance parameters. We found that the heterogeneity of firing rates and firing patterns make a greater contribution than chaos to the steepness of the synchronization transition curve. We also show that chaotic dynamics of the isolated neurons do not always make a visible difference in the transition to full synchrony. Moreover, macroscopic chaos is observed regardless of the dynamics nature of the neurons. However, performing a Functional Connectivity Dynamics analysis, we show that chaotic nodes can promote what is known as multi-stable behaviour, where the network dynamically switches between a number of different semi-synchronized, metastable states.

Range and variation in landscape patch dynamics: Implications for ecosystem management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Janice L. Garner; Casey Teske; Cathy Stewart; Paul Hessburg

2001-01-01

Northern Rocky Mountain landscape patterns are shaped primarily by fire and succession, and conversely, these vegetation patterns influence burning patterns and plant colonization processes. Historical range and variability (HRV) of landscape pattern can be quantified from three sources: (1) historical chronosequences, (2) spatial series, and (3) simulated...

The simulation of surface fire spread based on Rothermel model in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain (Jilin, China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Hang; Jin, Hui; Zhao, Ying; Fan, Yuguang; Qin, Liwu; Chen, Qinghong; Huang, Liya; Jia, Xiang; Liu, Lijie; Dai, Yuhong; Xiao, Ying

2018-03-01

The forest-fire not only brings great loss to natural resources, but also destructs the ecosystem and reduces the soil fertility, causing some natural disasters as soil erosion and debris flow. However, due to the lack of the prognosis for forest fire spreading trend in forest fire fighting, it is difficult to formulate rational and effective fire-fighting scheme. In the event of forest fire, achieving accurate judgment to the fire behavior would greatly improve the fire-fighting efficiency, and reduce heavy losses caused by fire. Researches on forest fire spread simulation can effectively reduce the loss of disasters. The present study focused on the simulation of "29 May 2012" wildfire in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Basic data were retrieved from the "29 May 2012" wildfire and field survey. A self-development forest fire behavior simulated program based on Rothermel Model was used in the simulation. Kappa coefficient and Sørensen index were employed to evaluate the simulation accuracy. The results showed that: The perimeter of simulated burned area was 4.66 km, the area was 56.47 hm2 and the overlapped burned area was 33.68 hm2, and the estimated rate of fire spread was 0.259 m/s. Between the simulated fire and actual fire, the Kappa coefficient was 0.7398 and the Sørensen co-efficient was 0.7419. This proved the application of Rothermel model to conduct fire behavior simulation in windthrow meadow was feasible. It can achieve the goal of forecasting for the spread behavior in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Thus, our self-development program based on the Rothermel model can provide a effective forecast of fire spread, which will facilitate the fire suppression work.

Validation and Simulation of Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test - 2 - Simulations at 5 Foot Elevation for Evaluation of Launch Mount Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strutzenberg, Louise L.; Putman, Gabriel C.

2011-01-01

The Ares I Scale Model Acoustics Test (ASMAT) is a series of live-fire tests of scaled rocket motors meant to simulate the conditions of the Ares I launch configuration. These tests have provided a well documented set of high fidelity measurements useful for validation including data taken over a range of test conditions and containing phenomena like Ignition Over-Pressure and water suppression of acoustics. Expanding from initial simulations of the ASMAT setup in a held down configuration, simulations have been performed using the Loci/CHEM computational fluid dynamics software for ASMAT tests of the vehicle at 5 ft. elevation (100 ft. real vehicle elevation) with worst case drift in the direction of the launch tower. These tests have been performed without water suppression and have compared the acoustic emissions for launch structures with and without launch mounts. In addition, simulation results have also been compared to acoustic and imagery data collected from similar live-fire tests to assess the accuracy of the simulations. Simulations have shown a marked change in the pattern of emissions after removal of the launch mount with a reduction in the overall acoustic environment experienced by the vehicle and the formation of highly directed acoustic waves moving across the platform deck. Comparisons of simulation results to live-fire test data showed good amplitude and temporal correlation and imagery comparisons over the visible and infrared wavelengths showed qualitative capture of all plume and pressure wave evolution features.

Simulations of microphysical, radiative, and dynamical processes in a continental-scale forest fire smoke plume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Westphal, Douglas L.; Toon, Owen B.

1991-01-01

The impact of a large forest fire smoke plume on atmospheric processes is studied through a numerical model of meteorology, aerosols, and radiative transfer. The simulated smoke optical depths at 0.63-micron wavelength are in agreement with analyses of satellite data and show values as high as 1.8. The smoke has an albedo of 35 percent, or more than double the clear-sky value, and cools the surface by as much as 5 K. An imaginary refractive index, n sub im, of 0.01 yields results which closely match the observed cooling, single scattering albedo, and the Angstrom wavelength exponent. An n exp im of 0.1, typical of smoke from urban fires, produces 9 K cooling. Coagulation causes the geometric mean radius by number to increase from the initial value of 0.08 micron to a final value of 0.15 micron, while the specific extinction and absorption increase by 40 and 25 percent, respectively.

Simulation of the FRP Product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paugam, Ronan; Wooster, Martin; Johnston, Joshua; Gastellu-Etchegorry, Jean-Philippe

2014-05-01

Among the different alternative of remote sensing technologies for estimating global fire carbon emission, the thermally-based measures of fire radiative power (FRP; and its temporal integration, fire radiative energy or FRE) has the potential to capture the spatial and temporal variability of fire occurrence. It was shown that a strong linear relationship exists between the total amount of thermal radiant energy emitted by a fire over its lifetime (the FRE) and the amount of fuel burned. Since all vegetation is 50(±5)% carbon, it is therefore in theory a potentially simple matter to measure the FRE and estimate the carbon release. In a fire inventory like the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), the total carbon emission is derived from a gridded FRE product forced by the MODIS observation, using Ct = β x FRE x Ef, where β is a conversion factor initially estimated from small scale experiment as β=0.368 and later derived for different bio dome by comparison with the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED). The sensitivities of the above equation to (i) different types of fire activity (ie, flaming, smoldering, torching), (ii) sensor view angles or (iii) soot/smoke absorption have not yet been well studied. The investigation of these types of sensitivity, and of the information content of thermal IR observations of actively burning fires in general, is one of the primary subjects of this study. Our approach is based on a combination of observational work and simulations conducted via the linkage of different fire models and the 3D radiative transfer (RT) model DART operating in the thermal domain. The radiation properties of a fire as seen from above its plume (e.g. space/air borne sensor) depend on the temperature distribution, the gas concentration (mainly CO2, H2O), and the amount, shape, distribution and optical properties of the soot particles in the flame (where they are emitting) and in the cooling plume (where they are mainly absorbing). While gas and soot radiative properties can be estimated from the literature, their concentration and temperature are calculated from output of fire models. Due to the large range of length scale involved in fire dynamics, a twofold approach is use to model the fire scene with (i) first the multi-phases model WFDS which can handle fire size ranging from a 1m2 to 1ha with a particular focus on flame-plume interaction, (ii) and then the meso scale model WRF-fire which can handle larger fires and the interaction plume-atmosphere (e.g. pyroconvection). In the former case, as the Radiative Transfer is WFDS is based on a Gray Body assumption (WFDS only focuses on fire dynamics) the main challenge is to derive the radiative properties of the different component of the fire scene (soot and gas) for the different bands (optical and IR) solved in DART to re-process a multispectral RT. In the later case, because WRF-fire is running at a resolution of tens of meters, pyrolysis and combustion processes cannot be resolved and to predict the fire front dynamics, the use of an empirical model based on the Rothermel equation and the level set method is required. In this later case, it is therefore necessary to use empirical relationship to determine: (i) the 3D structure of the flame defined by: flame length, flame height and fire front depth derived from Rate of Spread and residence time, (ii) the gas and soot concentration profile within the flame, and (iii) the convective flux generated by the flame. The development of these empirical relationships presents one of the main challenges of this work. Thought this work is still undergoing, first results show the potential impact of view angle on the evaluation of FRP.

Analysis of causal factors of fire regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palumbo, I.; Lehsten, V.; Balzter, H.

2009-04-01

Wildfires are a wide spread global phenomenon. Their activity peaks in the tropical savannas, especially in the African continent, where fires are a key component of ecosystem dynamics. Fires affect the ecological balance between trees and grasses in savannas with concomitant effects on biodiversity, soil fertility and biogeochemical cycles. Large amounts of trace greenhouse gases and aerosols from wildfires are emitted each year in Africa, but the underlying dynamics of such wildfires and what drives them remain poorly understood. In general terms, the magnitude and the inter-annual variability of fire activity depend on fire frequency and its spatial distribution, also referred to as fire regimes. These are, in turn, determined by the environmental conditions at the time of burning, ignition sources, fuel type, fuel availability, and its moisture content. This study analysed the driving factors of fire regimes at continental level for a period of 5 years (2002-2007). We considered the following variables: climate (rainfall, temperature, humidity), population density, land cover and the burned areas derived from the MODIS MCD45A1 product at 500m resolution. GIS and multi-variate regression techniques were used to analyse the data. Understanding fire driving factors is fundamentally important for developing process-based simulation models of fire occurrence under future climate and environmental change scenarios. This is particularly relevant if we consider that the IPCC 4th Assessment report indicates that a change in the rainfall patterns has been observed in the last 40 years over most of Africa with a decrease of precipitation around 20-40% in West Africa and more intense and widespread droughts in Southern Africa. The simultaneous increase of temperatures can potentially lead to higher fire occurrence and modify the current fire regimes. This work contributes to climate change research with new insights and understanding about how fires are controlled by bioclimatic and demographic factors in African ecosystems.

Correlations induced by depressing synapses in critically self-organized networks with quenched dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, João Guilherme Ferreira; Costa, Ariadne de Andrade; Copelli, Mauro; Kinouchi, Osame

2017-04-01

In a recent work, mean-field analysis and computer simulations were employed to analyze critical self-organization in networks of excitable cellular automata where randomly chosen synapses in the network were depressed after each spike (the so-called annealed dynamics). Calculations agree with simulations of the annealed version, showing that the nominal branching ratio σ converges to unity in the thermodynamic limit, as expected of a self-organized critical system. However, the question remains whether the same results apply to the biological case where only the synapses of firing neurons are depressed (the so-called quenched dynamics). We show that simulations of the quenched model yield significant deviations from σ =1 due to spatial correlations. However, the model is shown to be critical, as the largest eigenvalue of the synaptic matrix approaches unity in the thermodynamic limit, that is, λc=1 . We also study the finite size effects near the critical state as a function of the parameters of the synaptic dynamics.

Modeling the Impact of Baryons on Subhalo Populations with Machine Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nadler, Ethan O.; Mao, Yao -Yuan; Wechsler, Risa H.

Here, we identify subhalos in dark matter–only (DMO) zoom-in simulations that are likely to be disrupted due to baryonic effects by using a random forest classifier trained on two hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way (MW)–mass host halos from the Latte suite of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We train our classifier using five properties of each disrupted and surviving subhalo: pericentric distance and scale factor at first pericentric passage after accretion and scale factor, virial mass, and maximum circular velocity at accretion. Our five-property classifier identifies disrupted subhalos in the FIRE simulations with an 85% out-of-bag classification score.more » We predict surviving subhalo populations in DMO simulations of the FIRE host halos, finding excellent agreement with the hydrodynamic results; in particular, our classifier outperforms DMO zoom-in simulations that include the gravitational potential of the central galactic disk in each hydrodynamic simulation, indicating that it captures both the dynamical effects of a central disk and additional baryonic physics. We also predict surviving subhalo populations for a suite of DMO zoom-in simulations of MW-mass host halos, finding that baryons impact each system consistently and that the predicted amount of subhalo disruption is larger than the host-to-host scatter among the subhalo populations. Although the small size and specific baryonic physics prescription of our training set limits the generality of our results, our work suggests that machine-learning classification algorithms trained on hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations can efficiently predict realistic subhalo populations.« less

Modeling the Impact of Baryons on Subhalo Populations with Machine Learning

DOE PAGES

Nadler, Ethan O.; Mao, Yao -Yuan; Wechsler, Risa H.; ...

2018-06-01

Here, we identify subhalos in dark matter–only (DMO) zoom-in simulations that are likely to be disrupted due to baryonic effects by using a random forest classifier trained on two hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way (MW)–mass host halos from the Latte suite of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We train our classifier using five properties of each disrupted and surviving subhalo: pericentric distance and scale factor at first pericentric passage after accretion and scale factor, virial mass, and maximum circular velocity at accretion. Our five-property classifier identifies disrupted subhalos in the FIRE simulations with an 85% out-of-bag classification score.more » We predict surviving subhalo populations in DMO simulations of the FIRE host halos, finding excellent agreement with the hydrodynamic results; in particular, our classifier outperforms DMO zoom-in simulations that include the gravitational potential of the central galactic disk in each hydrodynamic simulation, indicating that it captures both the dynamical effects of a central disk and additional baryonic physics. We also predict surviving subhalo populations for a suite of DMO zoom-in simulations of MW-mass host halos, finding that baryons impact each system consistently and that the predicted amount of subhalo disruption is larger than the host-to-host scatter among the subhalo populations. Although the small size and specific baryonic physics prescription of our training set limits the generality of our results, our work suggests that machine-learning classification algorithms trained on hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations can efficiently predict realistic subhalo populations.« less

Collective behavior of networks with linear (VLSI) integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Fusi, S; Mattia, M

1999-04-01

We analyze in detail the statistical properties of the spike emission process of a canonical integrate-and-fire neuron, with a linear integrator and a lower bound for the depolarization, as often used in VLSI implementations (Mead, 1989). The spike statistics of such neurons appear to be qualitatively similar to conventional (exponential) integrate-and-fire neurons, which exhibit a wide variety of characteristics observed in cortical recordings. We also show that, contrary to current opinion, the dynamics of a network composed of such neurons has two stable fixed points, even in the purely excitatory network, corresponding to two different states of reverberating activity. The analytical results are compared with numerical simulations and are found to be in good agreement.

Time Accurate CFD Simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle in the Transonic Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruf, Joseph; Rojahn, Josh

2011-01-01

Significant asymmetries in the fluid dynamics were calculated for some cases in the CFD simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle through its abort trajectories. The CFD simulations were performed steady state with symmetric boundary conditions and geometries. The trajectory points at issue were in the transonic regime, at 0 and 5 angles of attack with the Abort Motors with and without the Attitude Control Motors (ACM) firing. In some of the cases the asymmetric fluid dynamics resulted in aerodynamic side forces that were large enough that would overcome the control authority of the ACMs. MSFC s Fluid Dynamics Group supported the investigation into the cause of the flow asymmetries with time accurate CFD simulations, utilizing a hybrid RANS-LES turbulence model. The results show that the flow over the vehicle and the subsequent interaction with the AB and ACM motor plumes were unsteady. The resulting instantaneous aerodynamic forces were oscillatory with fairly large magnitudes. Time averaged aerodynamic forces were essentially symmetric.

Application of a Mesoscale Atmospheric Coupled Fire Model BRAMS-FIRE to Alentejo Woodland Fire and Comparison of Performance with the Fire Model WRF-Sfire.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitas, S. R.; Menezes, I. C.; Stockler, R.; Mello, R.; Ribeiro, N. A.; Corte-Real, J. A. M.; Surový, P.

2014-12-01

Models of fuel with the identification of vegetation patterns of Montado ecosystem in Portugal was incorporated in the mesoscale Brazilian Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) and coupled with a spread woodland fire model. The BRAMS-FIRE is a new system developed by the "Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos" (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil) and the "Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrâneas" (ICAAM, Portugal). The fire model used in this effort was originally, developed by Mandel et al. (2013) and further incorporated in the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). Two grids of high spatial resolution were configured with surface input data and fuel models integrated for simulations using both models BRAMS-FIRE and WRF-SFIRE. One grid was placed in the plain land near Beja and the other one in the hills of Ossa to evaluate different types of fire propagation and calibrate BRAMS-FIRE. The objective is simulating the effects of atmospheric circulation in local scale, namely the movements of the heat front and energy release associated to it, obtained by this two models in an episode of woodland fire which took place in Alentejo area in the last decade, for application to planning and evaluations of agro woodland fire risks. We aim to model the behavior of forest fires through a set of equations whose solutions provide quantitative values of one or more variables related to the propagation of fire, described by semi-empirical expressions that are complemented by experimental data allow to obtain the main variables related advancing the perimeter of the fire, as the propagation speed, the intensity of the fire front and fuel consumption and its interaction with atmospheric dynamic system. References Mandel, J., J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, and M. Vejmelka, 2013. New features in WRF-SFIRE and the wildfire forecasting and danger system in Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, submitted, Numerical Wildfires, Cargèse, France, May 13-18, 2013.

Low-Dimensional Models of "Neuro-Glio-Vascular Unit" for Describing Neural Dynamics under Normal and Energy-Starved Conditions.

PubMed

Chhabria, Karishma; Chakravarthy, V Srinivasa

2016-01-01

The motivation of developing simple minimal models for neuro-glio-vascular (NGV) system arises from a recent modeling study elucidating the bidirectional information flow within the NGV system having 89 dynamic equations (1). While this was one of the first attempts at formulating a comprehensive model for neuro-glio-vascular system, it poses severe restrictions in scaling up to network levels. On the contrary, low--dimensional models are convenient devices in simulating large networks that also provide an intuitive understanding of the complex interactions occurring within the NGV system. The key idea underlying the proposed models is to describe the glio-vascular system as a lumped system, which takes neural firing rate as input and returns an "energy" variable (analogous to ATP) as output. To this end, we present two models: biophysical neuro-energy (Model 1 with five variables), comprising KATP channel activity governed by neuronal ATP dynamics, and the dynamic threshold (Model 2 with three variables), depicting the dependence of neural firing threshold on the ATP dynamics. Both the models show different firing regimes, such as continuous spiking, phasic, and tonic bursting depending on the ATP production coefficient, ɛp, and external current. We then demonstrate that in a network comprising such energy-dependent neuron units, ɛp could modulate the local field potential (LFP) frequency and amplitude. Interestingly, low-frequency LFP dominates under low ɛp conditions, which is thought to be reminiscent of seizure-like activity observed in epilepsy. The proposed "neuron-energy" unit may be implemented in building models of NGV networks to simulate data obtained from multimodal neuroimaging systems, such as functional near infrared spectroscopy coupled to electroencephalogram and functional magnetic resonance imaging coupled to electroencephalogram. Such models could also provide a theoretical basis for devising optimal neurorehabilitation strategies, such as non-invasive brain stimulation for stroke patients.

HRSSA - Efficient hybrid stochastic simulation for spatially homogeneous biochemical reaction networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchetti, Luca; Priami, Corrado; Thanh, Vo Hong

2016-07-01

This paper introduces HRSSA (Hybrid Rejection-based Stochastic Simulation Algorithm), a new efficient hybrid stochastic simulation algorithm for spatially homogeneous biochemical reaction networks. HRSSA is built on top of RSSA, an exact stochastic simulation algorithm which relies on propensity bounds to select next reaction firings and to reduce the average number of reaction propensity updates needed during the simulation. HRSSA exploits the computational advantage of propensity bounds to manage time-varying transition propensities and to apply dynamic partitioning of reactions, which constitute the two most significant bottlenecks of hybrid simulation. A comprehensive set of simulation benchmarks is provided for evaluating performance and accuracy of HRSSA against other state of the art algorithms.

Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high-severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests.

PubMed

Krofcheck, Daniel J; Hurteau, Matthew D; Scheller, Robert M; Loudermilk, E Louise

2018-02-01

In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels reduction approaches that include mechanical thinning followed by regular prescribed fire are one approach to restore the ability of the ecosystem to tolerate episodic fire and still sequester C. Yet, the spatial extent of the area requiring treatment makes widespread treatment implementation unlikely. We sought to determine if a priori knowledge of where uncharacteristic wildfire is most probable could be used to optimize the placement of fuels treatments in a Sierra Nevada watershed. We developed two treatment placement strategies: the naive strategy, based on treating all operationally available area and the optimized strategy, which only treated areas where crown-killing fires were most probable. We ran forecast simulations using projected climate data through 2,100 to determine how the treatments differed in terms of C sequestration, fire severity, and C emissions relative to a no-management scenario. We found that in both the short (20 years) and long (100 years) term, both management scenarios increased C stability, reduced burn severity, and consequently emitted less C as a result of wildfires than no-management. Across all metrics, both scenarios performed the same, but the optimized treatment required significantly less C removal (naive=0.42 Tg C, optimized=0.25 Tg C) to achieve the same treatment efficacy. Given the extent of western forests in need of fire restoration, efficiently allocating treatments is a critical task if we are going to restore adaptive capacity in frequent-fire forests. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulation of Dual Firing of Hydrogen and JP-8 in a Swirling Combustor

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-14

completed using the Ansys CFX computational fluid dynamics software. The total Lower Heating Value of the fuel mixture is maintained at a constant 6 kW...PERSON a. REPORT unclassified b. ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18

Development of Polarized UV Raman and Infrared Emission/Absorption Spectroscopy for Rocket Engine Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Osborne, Robin; Wehrmeyer, Joseph; Farmer, Richard; Trinh, Huu; Dobson, Chris; Eskridge, Richard; Cramer, John; Hartfield, Roy; Turner, Jim (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The objective of this project is to provide measurements of species concentrations and temperature for hot-fire test articles at Test Stand 115 at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Measurements can be useful for comparison to computational fluid dynamics simulations and help to evaluate combustion performance.

Firing rate of noisy integrate-and-fire neurons with synaptic current dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrieux, David; Monnai, Takaaki; Department of Applied Physics, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8555

2009-08-15

We derive analytical formulas for the firing rate of integrate-and-fire neurons endowed with realistic synaptic dynamics. In particular, we include the possibility of multiple synaptic inputs as well as the effect of an absolute refractory period into the description. The latter affects the firing rate through its interaction with the synaptic dynamics.

Modeling Pacific Northwest carbon and water cycling using CARAIB Dynamic Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, M.; Kim, J. B.; Still, C. J.; Francois, L. M.; Jiang, Y.

2015-12-01

While uncertainties remain regarding projected temperature and precipitation changes, climate warming is already affecting ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Decrease in ecosystem productivity as well as increase in mortality of some plant species induced by drought and disturbance have been reported. Here, we applied the process-based dynamic vegetation model CARAIB to PNW to simulate the response of water and carbon cycling to current and future climate change projections. The vegetation model has already been successfully applied to Europe to simulate plant physiological response to climate change. We calibrated CARAIB to PNW using global Plant Functional Types. For calibration, the model is driven with the gridded surface meteorological dataset UIdaho MACA METDATA with 1/24-degree (~4-km) resolution at a daily time step for the period 1979-2014. The model ability to reproduce the current spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks and fluxes was evaluated using a variety of available datasets, including eddy covariance and satellite observations. We focused particularly on past severe drought and fire episodes. Then, we simulated future conditions using the UIdaho MACAv2-METDATA dataset, which includes downscaled CMIP5 projections from 28 GCMs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We evaluated the future ecosystem carbon balance resulting from changes in drought frequency as well as in fire risk. We also simulated future productivity and drought-induced mortality of several key PNW tree species.

Integrating wildfire plume rises within atmospheric transport models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallia, D. V.; Kochanski, A.; Wu, D.; Urbanski, S. P.; Krueger, S. K.; Lin, J. C.

2016-12-01

Wildfires can generate significant pyro-convection that is responsible for releasing pollutants, greenhouse gases, and trace species into the free troposphere, which are then transported a significant distance downwind from the fire. Oftentimes, atmospheric transport and chemistry models have a difficult time resolving the transport of smoke from these wildfires, primarily due to deficiencies in estimating the plume injection height, which has been highlighted in previous work as the most important aspect of simulating wildfire plume transport. As a result of the uncertainties associated with modeled wildfire plume rise, researchers face difficulties modeling the impacts of wildfire smoke on air quality and constraining fire emissions using inverse modeling techniques. Currently, several plume rise parameterizations exist that are able to determine the injection height of fire emissions; however, the success of these parameterizations has been mixed. With the advent of WRF-SFIRE, the wildfire plume rise and injection height can now be explicitly calculated using a fire spread model (SFIRE) that is dynamically linked with the atmosphere simulated by WRF. However, this model has only been tested on a limited basis due to computational costs. Here, we will test the performance of WRF-SFIRE in addition to several commonly adopted plume parameterizations (Freitas, Sofiev, and Briggs) for the 2013 Patch Springs (Utah) and 2012 Baker Canyon (Washington) fires, for both of which observations of plume rise heights are available. These plume rise techniques will then be incorporated within a Lagrangian atmospheric transport model (STILT) in order to simulate CO and CO2 concentrations during NASA's CARVE Earth Science Airborne Program over Alaska during the summer of 2012. Initial model results showed that STILT model simulations were unable to reproduce enhanced CO concentrations produced by Alaskan fires observed during 2012. Near-surface concentrations were drastically overestimated while free tropospheric concentrations of CO were underestimated, likely a result of STILT injecting the fire emissions strictly into the PBL. We show in this study to what degree coupling the STILT model with an external plume rise model can help mitigate these problems.

FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator-model development and evaluation

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney

1998-01-01

A computer simulation model, FARSITE, includes existing fire behavior models for surface, crown, spotting, point-source fire acceleration, and fuel moisture. The model's components and assumptions are documented. Simulations were run for simple conditions that illustrate the effect of individual fire behavior models on two-dimensional fire growth.

Combining Ecosystem Observations, Manipulations and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to Provide New Insights into Community Land Model Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A.; Armstrong, A. H.; Shuman, J. K.; Ranson, K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Rogers, B. M.; Goetz, S. J.

2016-12-01

Global temperatures have increased about 0.2°C per decade since 1979, and the high latitudes are warming faster than the rest of the globe. Climate change within Alaska is likely to bring about increased drought and longer fire seasons, as well as increases in the severity and frequency of fires. These changes in disturbance regimes and their associated effects on ecosystem C stocks, including permafrost, may lead to a positive feedback to further climate warming. As of now, it is uncertain how vegetation will respond to ongoing climate change, and the addition of disturbance effects leads to even more complicated and varied scenarios. Through ecological modeling, we have the capacity to examine forest processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales, allowing for the testing of complex interactions between vegetation, climate, and disturbances. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) is an individual tree-based forest model that has been updated for use in interior boreal Alaska, with a new permafrost model and updated fire simulation. These updated submodels allow for feedback between soils, vegetation, and fire severity through fuels tracking and impact of depth of burn on permafrost dynamics. We present these updated submodels as well as calibration and validation of UVAFME to the Yukon River Basin in Alaska, with comparisons to inventory data. We also present initial findings from simulations of potential future forest biomass, structure, and species composition across the Yukon River Basin under expected changes in precipitation, temperature, and disturbances. We predict changing climate and the associated impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in shifts in biomass and species composition across the region, with potential for further feedback to the climate-vegetation-disturbance system. These simulations advance our understanding of the possible futures for the Alaskan boreal forest, which is a valuable part of the global carbon budget.

Multi-Scale Modeling of Boreal Forest Vegetation Growth Under the Influence of Permafrost and Wildfire Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A.; Armstrong, A. H.; Shuman, J. K.; Ranson, K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Rogers, B. M.; Goetz, S. J.

2017-12-01

Global temperatures have increased about 0.2°C per decade since 1979, and the high latitudes are warming faster than the rest of the globe. Climate change within Alaska is likely to bring about increased drought and longer fire seasons, as well as increases in the severity and frequency of fires. These changes in disturbance regimes and their associated effects on ecosystem C stocks, including permafrost, may lead to a positive feedback to further climate warming. As of now, it is uncertain how vegetation will respond to ongoing climate change, and the addition of disturbance effects leads to even more complicated and varied scenarios. Through ecological modeling, we have the capacity to examine forest processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales, allowing for the testing of complex interactions between vegetation, climate, and disturbances. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) is an individual tree-based forest model that has been updated for use in interior boreal Alaska, with a new permafrost model and updated fire simulation. These updated submodels allow for feedback between soils, vegetation, and fire severity through fuels tracking and impact of depth of burn on permafrost dynamics. We present these updated submodels as well as calibration and validation of UVAFME to the Yukon River Basin in Alaska, with comparisons to inventory data. We also present initial findings from simulations of potential future forest biomass, structure, and species composition across the Yukon River Basin under expected changes in precipitation, temperature, and disturbances. We predict changing climate and the associated impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in shifts in biomass and species composition across the region, with potential for further feedback to the climate-vegetation-disturbance system. These simulations advance our understanding of the possible futures for the Alaskan boreal forest, which is a valuable part of the global carbon budget.

Scalable Cloning on Large-Scale GPU Platforms with Application to Time-Stepped Simulations on Grids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoginath, Srikanth B.; Perumalla, Kalyan S.

Cloning is a technique to efficiently simulate a tree of multiple what-if scenarios that are unraveled during the course of a base simulation. However, cloned execution is highly challenging to realize on large, distributed memory computing platforms, due to the dynamic nature of the computational load across clones, and due to the complex dependencies spanning the clone tree. In this paper, we present the conceptual simulation framework, algorithmic foundations, and runtime interface of CloneX, a new system we designed for scalable simulation cloning. It efficiently and dynamically creates whole logical copies of a dynamic tree of simulations across a largemore » parallel system without full physical duplication of computation and memory. The performance of a prototype implementation executed on up to 1,024 graphical processing units of a supercomputing system has been evaluated with three benchmarks—heat diffusion, forest fire, and disease propagation models—delivering a speed up of over two orders of magnitude compared to replicated runs. Finally, the results demonstrate a significantly faster and scalable way to execute many what-if scenario ensembles of large simulations via cloning using the CloneX interface.« less

Scalable Cloning on Large-Scale GPU Platforms with Application to Time-Stepped Simulations on Grids

DOE PAGES

Yoginath, Srikanth B.; Perumalla, Kalyan S.

2018-01-31

Cloning is a technique to efficiently simulate a tree of multiple what-if scenarios that are unraveled during the course of a base simulation. However, cloned execution is highly challenging to realize on large, distributed memory computing platforms, due to the dynamic nature of the computational load across clones, and due to the complex dependencies spanning the clone tree. In this paper, we present the conceptual simulation framework, algorithmic foundations, and runtime interface of CloneX, a new system we designed for scalable simulation cloning. It efficiently and dynamically creates whole logical copies of a dynamic tree of simulations across a largemore » parallel system without full physical duplication of computation and memory. The performance of a prototype implementation executed on up to 1,024 graphical processing units of a supercomputing system has been evaluated with three benchmarks—heat diffusion, forest fire, and disease propagation models—delivering a speed up of over two orders of magnitude compared to replicated runs. Finally, the results demonstrate a significantly faster and scalable way to execute many what-if scenario ensembles of large simulations via cloning using the CloneX interface.« less

A Contextual Fire Detection Algorithm for Simulated HJ-1B Imagery.

PubMed

Qian, Yonggang; Yan, Guangjian; Duan, Sibo; Kong, Xiangsheng

2009-01-01

The HJ-1B satellite, which was launched on September 6, 2008, is one of the small ones placed in the constellation for disaster prediction and monitoring. HJ-1B imagery was simulated in this paper, which contains fires of various sizes and temperatures in a wide range of terrestrial biomes and climates, including RED, NIR, MIR and TIR channels. Based on the MODIS version 4 contextual algorithm and the characteristics of HJ-1B sensor, a contextual fire detection algorithm was proposed and tested using simulated HJ-1B data. It was evaluated by the probability of fire detection and false alarm as functions of fire temperature and fire area. Results indicate that when the simulated fire area is larger than 45 m(2) and the simulated fire temperature is larger than 800 K, the algorithm has a higher probability of detection. But if the simulated fire area is smaller than 10 m(2), only when the simulated fire temperature is larger than 900 K, may the fire be detected. For fire areas about 100 m(2), the proposed algorithm has a higher detection probability than that of the MODIS product. Finally, the omission and commission error were evaluated which are important factors to affect the performance of this algorithm. It has been demonstrated that HJ-1B satellite data are much sensitive to smaller and cooler fires than MODIS or AVHRR data and the improved capabilities of HJ-1B data will offer a fine opportunity for the fire detection.

Design of the flame detector based on pyroelectric infrared sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yang; Yu, Benhua; Dong, Lei; Li, Kai

2017-10-01

As a fire detection device, flame detector has the advantages of short reaction time and long distance. Based on pyroelectric infrared sensor working principle, the passive pyroelectric infrared alarm system is designed, which is mainly used for safety of tunnel to detect whether fire occurred or not. Modelling and Simulation of the pyroelectric Detector Using Labview. An attempt was made to obtain a simple test platform of a pyroelectric detector which would make an excellent basis for the analysis of its dynamic behaviour. After many experiments, This system has sensitive response, high anti-interference ability and safe and reliable performance.

Accounting for system dynamics in reserve design.

PubMed

Leroux, Shawn J; Schmiegelow, Fiona K A; Cumming, Steve G; Lessard, Robert B; Nagy, John

2007-10-01

Systematic conservation plans have only recently considered the dynamic nature of ecosystems. Methods have been developed to incorporate climate change, population dynamics, and uncertainty in reserve design, but few studies have examined how to account for natural disturbance. Considering natural disturbance in reserve design may be especially important for the world's remaining intact areas, which still experience active natural disturbance regimes. We developed a spatially explicit, dynamic simulation model, CONSERV, which simulates patch dynamics and fire, and used it to evaluate the efficacy of hypothetical reserve networks in northern Canada. We designed six networks based on conventional reserve design methods, with different conservation targets for woodland caribou habitat, high-quality wetlands, vegetation, water bodies, and relative connectedness. We input the six reserve networks into CONSERV and tracked the ability of each to maintain initial conservation targets through time under an active natural disturbance regime. None of the reserve networks maintained all initial targets, and some over-represented certain features, suggesting that both effectiveness and efficiency of reserve design could be improved through use of spatially explicit dynamic simulation during the planning process. Spatial simulation models of landscape dynamics are commonly used in natural resource management, but we provide the first illustration of their potential use for reserve design. Spatial simulation models could be used iteratively to evaluate competing reserve designs and select targets that have a higher likelihood of being maintained through time. Such models could be combined with dynamic planning techniques to develop a general theory for reserve design in an uncertain world.

Phenology-based, remote sensing of post-burn disturbance windows in rangelands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sankeya, Joel B.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Ravi, Sujith

2013-01-01

Wildland fire activity has increased in many parts of the world in recent decades. Ecological disturbance by fire can accelerate ecosystem degradation processes such as erosion due to combustion of vegetation that otherwise provides protective cover to the soil surface. This study employed a novel ecological indicator based on remote sensing of vegetation greenness dynamics (phenology) to estimate variability in the window of time between fire and the reemergence of green vegetation. The indicator was applied as a proxy for short-term, post-fire disturbance windows in rangelands; where a disturbance window is defined as the time required for an ecological or geomorphic process that is altered to return to pre-disturbance levels. We examined variability in the indicator determined for time series of MODIS and AVHRR NDVI remote sensing data for a database of ∼100 historical wildland fires, with associated post-fire reseeding treatments, that burned 1990–2003 in cold desert shrub steppe of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau of the western USA. The indicator-based estimates of disturbance window length were examined relative to the day of the year that fires burned and seeding treatments to consider effects of contemporary variability in fire regime and management activities in this environment. A key finding was that contemporary changes of increased length of the annual fire season could have indirect effects on ecosystem degradation, as early season fires appeared to result in longer time that soils remained relatively bare of the protective cover of vegetation after fires. Also important was that reemergence of vegetation did not occur more quickly after fire in sites treated with post-fire seeding, which is a strategy commonly employed to accelerate post-fire vegetation recovery and stabilize soil. Future work with the indicator could examine other ecological factors that are dynamic in space and time following disturbance – such as nutrient cycling, carbon storage, microbial community composition, or soil hydrology – as a function of disturbance windows, possibly using simulation modeling and historical wildfire information.

A reduction for spiking integrate-and-fire network dynamics ranging from homogeneity to synchrony.

PubMed

Zhang, J W; Rangan, A V

2015-04-01

In this paper we provide a general methodology for systematically reducing the dynamics of a class of integrate-and-fire networks down to an augmented 4-dimensional system of ordinary-differential-equations. The class of integrate-and-fire networks we focus on are homogeneously-structured, strongly coupled, and fluctuation-driven. Our reduction succeeds where most current firing-rate and population-dynamics models fail because we account for the emergence of 'multiple-firing-events' involving the semi-synchronous firing of many neurons. These multiple-firing-events are largely responsible for the fluctuations generated by the network and, as a result, our reduction faithfully describes many dynamic regimes ranging from homogeneous to synchronous. Our reduction is based on first principles, and provides an analyzable link between the integrate-and-fire network parameters and the relatively low-dimensional dynamics underlying the 4-dimensional augmented ODE.

Tropical peatland carbon dynamics simulated for scenarios of disturbance and restoration and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolking, S. E.; Warren, M.; Dai, Z.; Kurnianto, S.; Hagen, S. C.

2015-12-01

Tropical peatlands contain a globally significant carbon pool. Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, mostly for conversion to industrial oil palm or pulp and paper plantations. The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increasing attention in recent years as persistent greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided or decreased if peatlands remain intact or are rehabilitated. In addition, peatland conservation or rehabilitation for climate mitigation also includes multiple co-benefits such as maintenance of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and air quality from reduced fire occurrence. Inventory guidelines and methodologies have only recently become available, and are based on few data from a limited number of sites. Few heuristic tools are available to evaluate the impact of management practices on carbon dynamics in tropical peatlands, and the potential climate mitigation benefits of peatland restoration. We used a process based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore the C dynamics of several peatland management trajectories represented by hypothetical scenarios, within the context of simulated 21st century climate change. All scenarios with land use, including those with optimal restoration, simulate C loss over the 21st century, with C losses ranging from 10% to essentially 100% of pre-disturbance values. Fire, either prescribed as part of a crop rotation cycle, or stochastic occurrences in sub-optimally managed degraded land can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. A single 25-year oil palm rotation, with a prescribed initial burn, lost 40-50 kg C/m2, equivalent to accumulation during the previous 500 years, 10-30% of which was restored in 75 years of optimal restoration. Our results indicate that even under the most optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one-third of the carbon lost to the atmosphere from 25 years of oil palm cultivation can be recovered within the next 75 years. In addition, peat fire suppression is the most effective management tool to maintain peatland carbon stocks, and should be a high priority for climate mitigation efforts on peatlands.

Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession

PubMed Central

Landguth, Erin L.; Bull, C. Michael; Banks, Sam C.; Gardner, Michael G.; Driscoll, Don A.

2016-01-01

Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus. We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity in N. stellatus. Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics. PMID:27009225

Fires in Operating or Abandoned Coal Mines or Heaps of Reactive Materials and the Governing Transport and Reaction Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuttke, M. W.; Kessels, W.; Wessling, S.; Han, J.

2007-05-01

Spontaneous combustion is a world wide problem for technical operations in mining, waste disposal and power plant facilities. The principle driving the combustion is every where the same independent of the different reactive materials: Fresh air with the common oxygen content is getting in contact with the reactive material by human operations. The following reaction process produces heat at a usually low but constant rate. The reactive material in operating or abandoned coal mines, heaps of coal, waste or reactive minerals is most times strongly broken or fractured, such that the atmospheric oxygen can deeply penetrate into the porous or fractured media. Because the strongly broken or fractured medium with air filled pores and fractures is often combined with a low thermal conductivity of the bulk material the produced heat accumulates and the temperature increases with time. If the reactivity strongly increases with temperature, the temperature rise accelerates up to the "combustion temperature". Once the temperature is high enough the combustion process is determined by the oxygen transport to the combustion center rather than the chemical reactivity. Spontaneous combustion is thus a self- amplifying process where an initial small variation in the parameters and the starting conditions can create exploding combustion hot spots in an apparently homogenous material. The phenomenon will be discussed by various examples in the context of the German - Sino coal fire project. A temperature monitoring in hot fracture systems documents the strong influence of the weather conditions on the combustion process. Numerical calculations show the sensitivity of the combustion to the model geometries, the boundary conditions and mainly the permeability. The most used fire fighting operations like covering and water injection are discussed. A new method of using saltwater for fire fighting is presented and discussed. References: Kessels, W., Wessling, S., Li, X., and Wuttke, M. W. Numerical element distinction for reactive transport modeling regarding reaction rate. In Proceedings of MODFLOW and MORE 2006: Managing Groundwater Systems, May 21 - 24, 2006, Golden, CO USA (2006). Kessels, W., Wuttke, M. W., Wessling, S., and Li, X. Coal fires between self ignition and fire fighting: Numerical modeling and basic geophysical measurements. In ERSEC Ecological Book Series - 4 on Coal Fire Research (2007). Wessling, S., Litschke, T., Wiegand, J., Schlömer, S., and Kessels, W. Simulating dynamic subsurface coal fires and its applications. In ERSEC Ecological Book Series - 4 on Coal Fire Reserach (2007). Wessling, S., Kessels, W., Schmidt, M., and Krause, U. Investigating dynamic underground coal fires by means of numerical simulation. Geophys. J. Int. (submitted).

Regional patterns of cropland and pasture burning: Statistical separation of signals from remote sensing products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, S. S.; Pacala, S. W.; Magi, B. I.; Shevliakova, E.

2013-12-01

The use of fire in agriculture--to manage crop residues and pastoral grasses, and for clearing land--has consequences worldwide for air quality, human health, and climate. Airborne particulate matter from such burning aggravates respiratory ailments and can influence regional precipitation, while associated greenhouse gases and aerosols affect global climate. Little research, however, has focused on understanding patterns of cropland and pasture fire use with an eye towards simulation at global scales. Previous work by these authors showed that the separate seasonal trends of agricultural and non-agricultural fire could be extracted from large-scale fire observation and land use datasets. This study builds on that research, describing the derivation and application of a statistical method to estimate both the seasonality and amount of cropland, pasture, and other fire based on observations from satellite-based remote sensing products. We demonstrate that our approach is flexible enough to allow the incorporation of alternative high-quality observations of fire and/or land use that might be available only for certain regions. Results for a number of large regions around the world show that these two kinds of agricultural fire often differ in their extent and seasonality from each other and from burning on other land in ways that reflect known management practices. For example, we find that pasture in north-central sub-Saharan Africa tends to burn earlier than non-agricultural land; this can be attributed to pastoralists preventively burning their land early in the dry season so as to avoid severe, uncontrolled burns under more dangerous fire conditions later. Both the timing and extent of agricultural fires prove to be regionally specific; our method allows these geographically distinct patterns to be fully appreciated. The local and global differences in seasonality and amount of fire between different land-use types suggest that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) should simulate fires on cropland and pasture fire independently from burning on other lands and take a regional approach in doing so. For example, pastoral burning dominates across large parts of the African region described above, where a fire model focused only on non-agricultural burning would therefore be inaccurate. On the other hand, in southern Africa those two types of fire more closely parallel each other. While a pure application of our analytical method is based exclusively on the relative distributions of fire activity and land use types, we demonstrate its incorporation into a more process-based fire model to capture the influence of seasonal and interannual variations in climate and ecosystem characteristics on burning. Such a model, the ultimate goal of our research, will help improve DGVM simulations--and therefore scientific understanding--of past, present, and future distributions of fire.

On the characterization of vegetation recovery after fire disturbance using Fisher-Shannon analysis and SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasaponara, Rosa; Lanorte, Antonio; Lovallo, Michele; Telesca, Luciano

2015-04-01

Time series can fruitfully support fire monitoring and management from statistical analysis of fire occurrence (Tuia et al. 2008) to danger estimation (lasaponara 2005), damage evaluation (Lanorte et al 2014) and post fire recovery (Lanorte et al. 2014). In this paper, the time dynamics of SPOT-VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series are analyzed by using the statistical approach of the Fisher-Shannon (FS) information plane to assess and monitor vegetation recovery after fire disturbance. Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis allows us to gain insight into the complex structure of a time series to quantify its degree of organization and order. The analysis was carried out using 10-day Maximum Value Composites of NDVI (MVC-NDVI) with a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution. The investigation was performed on two test sites located in Galizia (North Spain) and Peloponnese (South Greece), selected for the vast fires which occurred during the summer of 2006 and 2007 and for their different vegetation covers made up mainly of low shrubland in Galizia test site and evergreen forest in Peloponnese. Time series of MVC-NDVI have been analyzed before and after the occurrence of the fire events. Results obtained for both the investigated areas clearly pointed out that the dynamics of the pixel time series before the occurrence of the fire is characterized by a larger degree of disorder and uncertainty; while the pixel time series after the occurrence of the fire are featured by a higher degree of organization and order. In particular, regarding the Peloponneso fire, such discrimination is more evident than in the Galizia fire. This suggests a clear possibility to discriminate the different post-fire behaviors and dynamics exhibited by the different vegetation covers. Reference Lanorte A, R Lasaponara, M Lovallo, L Telesca 2014 Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis of SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to characterize vegetation recovery after fire disturbanceInternational Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 26 441-446 Lanorte A, M Danese, R Lasaponara, B Murgante 2014 Multiscale mapping of burn area and severity using multisensor satellite data and spatial autocorrelation analysis International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 20, 42-51 Tuia D, F Ratle, R Lasaponara, L Telesca, M Kanevski 2008 Scan statistics analysis of forest fire clusters Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (8), 1689-1694 Telesca L, R Lasaponara 2006 Pre and post fire behavioral trends revealed in satellite NDVI time series Geophysical Research Letters 33 (14) Lasaponara R 2005 Intercomparison of AVHRR based fire susceptibility indicators for the Mediterranean ecosystems of southern Italy International Journal of Remote Sensing 26 (5), 853-870

Optical Flow Estimation for Flame Detection in Videos

PubMed Central

Mueller, Martin; Karasev, Peter; Kolesov, Ivan; Tannenbaum, Allen

2014-01-01

Computational vision-based flame detection has drawn significant attention in the past decade with camera surveillance systems becoming ubiquitous. Whereas many discriminating features, such as color, shape, texture, etc., have been employed in the literature, this paper proposes a set of motion features based on motion estimators. The key idea consists of exploiting the difference between the turbulent, fast, fire motion, and the structured, rigid motion of other objects. Since classical optical flow methods do not model the characteristics of fire motion (e.g., non-smoothness of motion, non-constancy of intensity), two optical flow methods are specifically designed for the fire detection task: optimal mass transport models fire with dynamic texture, while a data-driven optical flow scheme models saturated flames. Then, characteristic features related to the flow magnitudes and directions are computed from the flow fields to discriminate between fire and non-fire motion. The proposed features are tested on a large video database to demonstrate their practical usefulness. Moreover, a novel evaluation method is proposed by fire simulations that allow for a controlled environment to analyze parameter influences, such as flame saturation, spatial resolution, frame rate, and random noise. PMID:23613042

Dynamics and control simulation of the Spacelab Experiment Pointing Mount

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, E. L.; Ward, R. S.

1977-01-01

Computer simulations were developed to evaluate the performance of four Experiment Pointing Mounts (EPM) being considered for Spacelab experiments in the 1980-1990 time frame. The system modeled compromises a multibody system consisting of the shuttle, a mechanical isolation device, the EPM, celestial and inertial sensors, bearings, gimbal torque motors and associated nonlinearities, the experiment payload, and control and estimator algorithms. Each mount was subjected to a common disturbance (shuttle vernier thruster firing and man push off) and command (stellar pointing or solar raster scan) input. The fundamental limitation common to all mounts was found to be sensor noise. System dynamics and hardware nonlinearities have secondary effects on pointing performance for sufficiently high bandwidth.

A Contextual Fire Detection Algorithm for Simulated HJ-1B Imagery

PubMed Central

Qian, Yonggang; Yan, Guangjian; Duan, Sibo; Kong, Xiangsheng

2009-01-01

The HJ-1B satellite, which was launched on September 6, 2008, is one of the small ones placed in the constellation for disaster prediction and monitoring. HJ-1B imagery was simulated in this paper, which contains fires of various sizes and temperatures in a wide range of terrestrial biomes and climates, including RED, NIR, MIR and TIR channels. Based on the MODIS version 4 contextual algorithm and the characteristics of HJ-1B sensor, a contextual fire detection algorithm was proposed and tested using simulated HJ-1B data. It was evaluated by the probability of fire detection and false alarm as functions of fire temperature and fire area. Results indicate that when the simulated fire area is larger than 45 m2 and the simulated fire temperature is larger than 800 K, the algorithm has a higher probability of detection. But if the simulated fire area is smaller than 10 m2, only when the simulated fire temperature is larger than 900 K, may the fire be detected. For fire areas about 100 m2, the proposed algorithm has a higher detection probability than that of the MODIS product. Finally, the omission and commission error were evaluated which are important factors to affect the performance of this algorithm. It has been demonstrated that HJ-1B satellite data are much sensitive to smaller and cooler fires than MODIS or AVHRR data and the improved capabilities of HJ-1B data will offer a fine opportunity for the fire detection. PMID:22399950

Leader neurons in leaky integrate and fire neural network simulations.

PubMed

Zbinden, Cyrille

2011-10-01

In this paper, we highlight the topological properties of leader neurons whose existence is an experimental fact. Several experimental studies show the existence of leader neurons in population bursts of activity in 2D living neural networks (Eytan and Marom, J Neurosci 26(33):8465-8476, 2006; Eckmann et al., New J Phys 10(015011), 2008). A leader neuron is defined as a neuron which fires at the beginning of a burst (respectively network spike) more often than we expect by chance considering its mean firing rate. This means that leader neurons have some burst triggering power beyond a chance-level statistical effect. In this study, we characterize these leader neuron properties. This naturally leads us to simulate neural 2D networks. To build our simulations, we choose the leaky integrate and fire (lIF) neuron model (Gerstner and Kistler 2002; Cessac, J Math Biol 56(3):311-345, 2008), which allows fast simulations (Izhikevich, IEEE Trans Neural Netw 15(5):1063-1070, 2004; Gerstner and Naud, Science 326:379-380, 2009). The dynamics of our lIF model has got stable leader neurons in the burst population that we simulate. These leader neurons are excitatory neurons and have a low membrane potential firing threshold. Except for these two first properties, the conditions required for a neuron to be a leader neuron are difficult to identify and seem to depend on several parameters involved in the simulations themselves. However, a detailed linear analysis shows a trend of the properties required for a neuron to be a leader neuron. Our main finding is: A leader neuron sends signals to many excitatory neurons as well as to few inhibitory neurons and a leader neuron receives only signals from few other excitatory neurons. Our linear analysis exhibits five essential properties of leader neurons each with different relative importance. This means that considering a given neural network with a fixed mean number of connections per neuron, our analysis gives us a way of predicting which neuron is a good leader neuron and which is not. Our prediction formula correctly assesses leadership for at least ninety percent of neurons.

The Annular Suspension and Pointing System /ASPS/

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, W. W.; Woolley, C. T.

1978-01-01

The Annular Suspension and Pointing System (ASPS) may be attached to a carrier vehicle for orientation, mechanical isolation, and fine pointing purposes applicable to space experiments. It has subassemblies for both coarse and vernier pointing. A fourteen-degree-of-freedom simulation of the ASPS mounted on a Space Shuttle has yielded initial performance data. The simulation describes: the magnetic actuators, payload sensors, coarse gimbal assemblies, control algorithms, rigid body dynamic models of the payload and Shuttle, and a control system firing model.

Assessing accuracy of point fire intervals across landscapes with simulation modelling

Treesearch

Russell A. Parsons; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Robert E. Keane; Brigitte Dorner; Joseph Fall

2007-01-01

We assessed accuracy in point fire intervals using a simulation model that sampled four spatially explicit simulated fire histories. These histories varied in fire frequency and size and were simulated on a flat landscape with two forest types (dry versus mesic). We used three sampling designs (random, systematic grids, and stratified). We assessed the sensitivity of...

Validation and Simulation of ARES I Scale Model Acoustic Test -1- Pathfinder Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, G. C.

2011-01-01

The Ares I Scale Model Acoustics Test (ASMAT) is a series of live-fire tests of scaled rocket motors meant to simulate the conditions of the Ares I launch configuration. These tests have provided a well documented set of high fidelity measurements useful for validation including data taken over a range of test conditions and containing phenomena like Ignition Over-Pressure and water suppression of acoustics. To take advantage of this data, a digital representation of the ASMAT test setup has been constructed and test firings of the motor have been simulated using the Loci/CHEM computational fluid dynamics software. Within this first of a series of papers, results from ASMAT simulations with the rocket in a held down configuration and without water suppression have then been compared to acoustic data collected from similar live-fire tests to assess the accuracy of the simulations. Detailed evaluations of the mesh features, mesh length scales relative to acoustic signals, Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy numbers, and spatial residual sources have been performed to support this assessment. Results of acoustic comparisons have shown good correlation with the amplitude and temporal shape of pressure features and reasonable spectral accuracy up to approximately 1000 Hz. Major plume and acoustic features have been well captured including the plume shock structure, the igniter pulse transient, and the ignition overpressure. Finally, acoustic propagation patterns illustrated a previously unconsidered issue of tower placement inline with the high intensity overpressure propagation path.

Experimental identification of a comb-shaped chaotic region in multiple parameter spaces simulated by the Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Bing

2014-03-01

A comb-shaped chaotic region has been simulated in multiple two-dimensional parameter spaces using the Hindmarsh—Rose (HR) neuron model in many recent studies, which can interpret almost all of the previously simulated bifurcation processes with chaos in neural firing patterns. In the present paper, a comb-shaped chaotic region in a two-dimensional parameter space was reproduced, which presented different processes of period-adding bifurcations with chaos with changing one parameter and fixed the other parameter at different levels. In the biological experiments, different period-adding bifurcation scenarios with chaos by decreasing the extra-cellular calcium concentration were observed from some neural pacemakers at different levels of extra-cellular 4-aminopyridine concentration and from other pacemakers at different levels of extra-cellular caesium concentration. By using the nonlinear time series analysis method, the deterministic dynamics of the experimental chaotic firings were investigated. The period-adding bifurcations with chaos observed in the experiments resembled those simulated in the comb-shaped chaotic region using the HR model. The experimental results show that period-adding bifurcations with chaos are preserved in different two-dimensional parameter spaces, which provides evidence of the existence of the comb-shaped chaotic region and a demonstration of the simulation results in different two-dimensional parameter spaces in the HR neuron model. The results also present relationships between different firing patterns in two-dimensional parameter spaces.

Chapter 6 - Developing the LANDFIRE Vegetation and Biophysical Settings Map Unit Classifications for the LANDFIRE Prototype Project

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Long; Melanie Miller; James P. Menakis; Robert E. Keane

2006-01-01

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, required a system for classifying vegetation composition, biophysical settings, and vegetation structure to facilitate the mapping of vegetation and wildland fuel characteristics and the simulation of vegetation dynamics using landscape modeling. We developed...

Application of a mesoscale atmospheric coupled fire model BRAMS-SFIRE to Alentejo wildland fire and comparison of performance with the fire model WRF-SFIRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menezes, Isilda; Freitas, Saulo; Stockler, Rafael; Mello, Rafael; Ribeiro, Nuno; Corte-Real, João; Surový, Peter

2015-04-01

Models of fuel with the identification of vegetation patterns of Montado ecosystem in Portugal was incorporated in the mesoscale Brazilian Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) and coupled with a spread wildland fire model. The BRAMS-FIRE is a new system developed by the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil) and the Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrâneas (ICAAM, Portugal). The fire model used in this effort was originally, developed by Mandel et al. (2013) and further incorporated in the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). Two grids of high spatial resolution were configured with surface input data and fuel models integrated for simulations using both models BRAMS-SFIRE and WRF-SFIRE. One grid was placed in the plain land and the other one in the hills to evaluate different types of fire propagation and calibrate BRAMS-SFIRE. The objective is simulating the effects of atmospheric circulation in local scale, namely the movements of the heat front and energy release associated to it, obtained by this two models in an episode of wildland fire which took place in Alentejo area in the last decade, for application to planning and evaluations of agro wildland fire risks. We aim to model the behavior of forest fires through a set of equations whose solutions provide quantitative values of one or more variables related to the propagation of fire, described by semi-empirical expressions that are complemented by experimental data allow to obtain the main variables related advancing the perimeter of the fire, as the propagation speed, the intensity of the fire front and fuel consumption and its interaction with atmospheric dynamic system References Mandel, J., J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, and M. Vejmelka, 2013. New features in WRF-SFIRE and the wildfire forecasting and danger system in Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, submitted, Numerical Wildfires, Cargèse, France, May 13-18, 2013.

HRSSA – Efficient hybrid stochastic simulation for spatially homogeneous biochemical reaction networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marchetti, Luca, E-mail: marchetti@cosbi.eu; Priami, Corrado, E-mail: priami@cosbi.eu; University of Trento, Department of Mathematics

This paper introduces HRSSA (Hybrid Rejection-based Stochastic Simulation Algorithm), a new efficient hybrid stochastic simulation algorithm for spatially homogeneous biochemical reaction networks. HRSSA is built on top of RSSA, an exact stochastic simulation algorithm which relies on propensity bounds to select next reaction firings and to reduce the average number of reaction propensity updates needed during the simulation. HRSSA exploits the computational advantage of propensity bounds to manage time-varying transition propensities and to apply dynamic partitioning of reactions, which constitute the two most significant bottlenecks of hybrid simulation. A comprehensive set of simulation benchmarks is provided for evaluating performance andmore » accuracy of HRSSA against other state of the art algorithms.« less

Dynamic Impact Behaviour of High Entropy Alloys Used in the Military Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geantă, V.; Voiculescu, I.; Stefănoiu, R.; Chereches, T.; Zecheru, T.; Matache, L.; Rotariu, A.

2018-06-01

AlFeCrCoNi high entropy alloys (HEA) feature significant compressive strength characteristics, being usable for severe impact applications in the military domain. The research paper presents the results obtained by testing the impact resistance of four HEA samples of different chemical compositions at perforation with 7.62 mm calibre incendiary armour-piercing bullets. The dynamical behaviour was modelled by numerical simulation based on the results of the dynamic tests conducted in the firing range, thus allowing the development of more efficient high entropy alloys, to be used for collective/personal protection.

Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

2017-07-01

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Fire scars reveal variability and dynamics of eastern fire regimes

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey; Michael C. Stambaugh; Rose-Marie Muzika

2006-01-01

Fire scar evidence in eastern North America is sparse and complex but shows promise in defining the dynamics of these fire regimes and their influence on ecosystems. We review fire scar data, methods, and limitations, and use this information to identify and examine the factors influencing fire regimes. Fire scar data from studies at more than 40 sites in Eastern North...

Exact event-driven implementation for recurrent networks of stochastic perfect integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Taillefumier, Thibaud; Touboul, Jonathan; Magnasco, Marcelo

2012-12-01

In vivo cortical recording reveals that indirectly driven neural assemblies can produce reliable and temporally precise spiking patterns in response to stereotyped stimulation. This suggests that despite being fundamentally noisy, the collective activity of neurons conveys information through temporal coding. Stochastic integrate-and-fire models delineate a natural theoretical framework to study the interplay of intrinsic neural noise and spike timing precision. However, there are inherent difficulties in simulating their networks' dynamics in silico with standard numerical discretization schemes. Indeed, the well-posedness of the evolution of such networks requires temporally ordering every neuronal interaction, whereas the order of interactions is highly sensitive to the random variability of spiking times. Here, we answer these issues for perfect stochastic integrate-and-fire neurons by designing an exact event-driven algorithm for the simulation of recurrent networks, with delayed Dirac-like interactions. In addition to being exact from the mathematical standpoint, our proposed method is highly efficient numerically. We envision that our algorithm is especially indicated for studying the emergence of polychronized motifs in networks evolving under spike-timing-dependent plasticity with intrinsic noise.

A Response Surface Methodology for Mitigating Hot Gasses in Enclosed Car Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faiz Tharima, Ahmad; Zamri Yusoff, Mohd; Mujibur Rahman, Md

2017-12-01

A hot gas rise towards ceiling due to fire buoyancy will cause severe damage to the building structure. The temperature rises need to be controlled as among the elements of compliance in performance-based design. The channel flow between beams has used in this study to mitigate hot gases out of the enclosure by mean of response surface methodology. Fire Dynamic Simulator was employed as a simulation tool while the result was statistically examined using analysis of variance via Minitab application. It was found that the result was linear with predicted R2 (93.25%) and within the permissible R2 (98.13%). The ceiling height has been identified not affect in controlling hot gases while four control parameters which are beam spacing, transversal beam, extraction rate and longitudinal beam with p-values of 0.00, 0.000, 0.023 and 0.000 respectively, have been found to have the significant effect on the smoke temperature control. This study contributes a good input to the fire safety community in providing the initial design of enclosed car park with better condition.

Fire training in a virtual-reality environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freund, Eckhard; Rossmann, Jurgen; Bucken, Arno

2005-03-01

Although fire is very common in our daily environment - as a source of energy at home or as a tool in industry - most people cannot estimate the danger of a conflagration. Therefore it is important to train people in combating fire. Beneath training with propane simulators or real fires and real extinguishers, fire training can be performed in virtual reality, which means a pollution-free and fast way of training. In this paper we describe how to enhance a virtual-reality environment with a real-time fire simulation and visualisation in order to establish a realistic emergency-training system. The presented approach supports extinguishing of the virtual fire including recordable performance data as needed in teletraining environments. We will show how to get realistic impressions of fire using advanced particle-simulation and how to use the advantages of particles to trigger states in a modified cellular automata used for the simulation of fire-behaviour. Using particle systems that interact with cellular automata it is possible to simulate a developing, spreading fire and its reaction on different extinguishing agents like water, CO2 or oxygen. The methods proposed in this paper have been implemented and successfully tested on Cosimir, a commercial robot-and VR-simulation-system.

Region-specific network plasticity in simulated and living cortical networks: comparison of the center of activity trajectory (CAT) with other statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, Zenas C.; Bakkum, Douglas J.; Potter, Steve M.

2007-09-01

Electrically interfaced cortical networks cultured in vitro can be used as a model for studying the network mechanisms of learning and memory. Lasting changes in functional connectivity have been difficult to detect with extracellular multi-electrode arrays using standard firing rate statistics. We used both simulated and living networks to compare the ability of various statistics to quantify functional plasticity at the network level. Using a simulated integrate-and-fire neural network, we compared five established statistical methods to one of our own design, called center of activity trajectory (CAT). CAT, which depicts dynamics of the location-weighted average of spatiotemporal patterns of action potentials across the physical space of the neuronal circuitry, was the most sensitive statistic for detecting tetanus-induced plasticity in both simulated and living networks. By reducing the dimensionality of multi-unit data while still including spatial information, CAT allows efficient real-time computation of spatiotemporal activity patterns. Thus, CAT will be useful for studies in vivo or in vitro in which the locations of recording sites on multi-electrode probes are important.

Quantitative computational infrared imaging of buoyant diffusion flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newale, Ashish S.

Studies of infrared radiation from turbulent buoyant diffusion flames impinging on structural elements have applications to the development of fire models. A numerical and experimental study of radiation from buoyant diffusion flames with and without impingement on a flat plate is reported. Quantitative images of the radiation intensity from the flames are acquired using a high speed infrared camera. Large eddy simulations are performed using fire dynamics simulator (FDS version 6). The species concentrations and temperature from the simulations are used in conjunction with a narrow-band radiation model (RADCAL) to solve the radiative transfer equation. The computed infrared radiation intensities rendered in the form of images and compared with the measurements. The measured and computed radiation intensities reveal necking and bulging with a characteristic frequency of 7.1 Hz which is in agreement with previous empirical correlations. The results demonstrate the effects of stagnation point boundary layer on the upstream buoyant shear layer. The coupling between these two shear layers presents a model problem for sub-grid scale modeling necessary for future large eddy simulations.

Simulation of wind-driven dispersion of fire pollutants in a street canyon using FDS.

PubMed

Pesic, Dusica J; Blagojevic, Milan Dj; Zivkovic, Nenad V

2014-01-01

Air quality in urban areas attracts great attention due to increasing pollutant emissions and their negative effects on human health and environment. Numerous studies, such as those by Mouilleau and Champassith (J Loss Prevent Proc 22(3): 316-323, 2009), Xie et al. (J Hydrodyn 21(1): 108-117, 2009), and Yassin (Environ Sci Pollut Res 20(6): 3975-3988, 2013) focus on the air pollutant dispersion with no buoyancy effect or weak buoyancy effect. A few studies, such as those by Hu et al. (J Hazard Mater 166(1): 394-406, 2009; J Hazard Mater 192(3): 940-948, 2011; J Civ Eng Manag (2013)) focus on the fire-induced dispersion of pollutants with heat buoyancy release rate in the range from 0.5 to 20 MW. However, the air pollution source might very often be concentrated and intensive, as a consequence of the hazardous materials fire. Namely, transportation of fuel through urban areas occurs regularly, because it is often impossible to find alternative supply routes. It is accompanied with the risk of fire accident occurrences. Accident prevention strategies require analysis of the worst scenarios in which fire products jeopardize the exposed population and environment. The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of wind flow on air pollution and human vulnerability to fire products in a street canyon. For simulation of the gasoline tanker truck fire as a result of a multivehicle accident, computational fluid dynamics large eddy simulation method has been used. Numerical results show that the fire products flow vertically upward, without touching the walls of the buildings in the absence of wind. However, when the wind velocity reaches the critical value, the products touch the walls of the buildings on both sides of the street canyon. The concentrations of carbon monoxide and soot decrease, whereas carbon dioxide concentration increases with the rise of height above the street canyon ground level. The longitudinal concentration of the pollutants inside the street increases with the rise of the wind velocity at the roof level of the street canyon.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin; Slaughter, Andrew; Veeraraghavan, Swetha

Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) is a finite element application that aims at analyzing the response of 3-D soil-structure systems to natural and man-made hazards such as earthquakes, floods and fire. MASTODON currently focuses on the simulation of seismic events and has the capability to perform extensive ‘source-to-site’ simulations including earthquake fault rupture, nonlinear wave propagation and nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis. MASTODON is being developed to be a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework that enables analysts to not only perform deterministic analyses, but also easily perform probabilistic or stochastic simulations for the purpose of risk assessment.

An Analysis of Waves Underlying Grid Cell Firing in the Medial Enthorinal Cortex.

PubMed

Bonilla-Quintana, Mayte; Wedgwood, Kyle C A; O'Dea, Reuben D; Coombes, Stephen

2017-08-25

Layer II stellate cells in the medial enthorinal cortex (MEC) express hyperpolarisation-activated cyclic-nucleotide-gated (HCN) channels that allow for rebound spiking via an [Formula: see text] current in response to hyperpolarising synaptic input. A computational modelling study by Hasselmo (Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B, Biol. Sci. 369:20120523, 2013) showed that an inhibitory network of such cells can support periodic travelling waves with a period that is controlled by the dynamics of the [Formula: see text] current. Hasselmo has suggested that these waves can underlie the generation of grid cells, and that the known difference in [Formula: see text] resonance frequency along the dorsal to ventral axis can explain the observed size and spacing between grid cell firing fields. Here we develop a biophysical spiking model within a framework that allows for analytical tractability. We combine the simplicity of integrate-and-fire neurons with a piecewise linear caricature of the gating dynamics for HCN channels to develop a spiking neural field model of MEC. Using techniques primarily drawn from the field of nonsmooth dynamical systems we show how to construct periodic travelling waves, and in particular the dispersion curve that determines how wave speed varies as a function of period. This exhibits a wide range of long wavelength solutions, reinforcing the idea that rebound spiking is a candidate mechanism for generating grid cell firing patterns. Importantly we develop a wave stability analysis to show how the maximum allowed period is controlled by the dynamical properties of the [Formula: see text] current. Our theoretical work is validated by numerical simulations of the spiking model in both one and two dimensions.

Importance of the cutoff value in the quadratic adaptive integrate-and-fire model.

PubMed

Touboul, Jonathan

2009-08-01

The quadratic adaptive integrate-and-fire model (Izhikevich, 2003 , 2007 ) is able to reproduce various firing patterns of cortical neurons and is widely used in large-scale simulations of neural networks. This model describes the dynamics of the membrane potential by a differential equation that is quadratic in the voltage, coupled to a second equation for adaptation. Integration is stopped during the rise phase of a spike at a voltage cutoff value V(c) or when it blows up. Subsequently the membrane potential is reset, and the adaptation variable is increased by a fixed amount. We show in this note that in the absence of a cutoff value, not only the voltage but also the adaptation variable diverges in finite time during spike generation in the quadratic model. The divergence of the adaptation variable makes the system very sensitive to the cutoff: changing V(c) can dramatically alter the spike patterns. Furthermore, from a computational viewpoint, the divergence of the adaptation variable implies that the time steps for numerical simulation need to be small and adaptive. However, divergence of the adaptation variable does not occur for the quartic model (Touboul, 2008 ) and the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model (Brette & Gerstner, 2005 ). Hence, these models are robust to changes in the cutoff value.

WIFIRE: A Scalable Data-Driven Monitoring, Dynamic Prediction and Resilience Cyberinfrastructure for Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altintas, I.; Block, J.; Braun, H.; de Callafon, R. A.; Gollner, M. J.; Smarr, L.; Trouve, A.

2013-12-01

Recent studies confirm that climate change will cause wildfires to increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades especially for California and in much of the North American West. The most critical sustainability issue in the midst of these ever-changing dynamics is how to achieve a new social-ecological equilibrium of this fire ecology. Wildfire wind speeds and directions change in an instant, and first responders can only be effective when they take action as quickly as the conditions change. To deliver information needed for sustainable policy and management in this dynamically changing fire regime, we must capture these details to understand the environmental processes. We are building an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WIFIRE, for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. The WIFIRE integrated CI system supports social-ecological resilience to the changing fire ecology regime in the face of urban dynamics and climate change. Networked observations, e.g., heterogeneous satellite data and real-time remote sensor data is integrated with computational techniques in signal processing, visualization, modeling and data assimilation to provide a scalable, technological, and educational solution to monitor weather patterns to predict a wildfire's Rate of Spread. Our collaborative WIFIRE team of scientists, engineers, technologists, government policy managers, private industry, and firefighters architects implement CI pathways that enable joint innovation for wildfire management. Scientific workflows are used as an integrative distributed programming model and simplify the implementation of engineering modules for data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization while allowing integration with large-scale computing facilities. WIFIRE will be scalable to users with different skill-levels via specialized web interfaces and user-specified alerts for environmental events broadcasted to receivers before, during and after a wildfire. Scalability of the WIFIRE approach allows many sensors to be subjected to user-specified data processing algorithms to generate threshold alerts within seconds. Integration of this sensor data into both rapidly available fire image data and models will better enable situational awareness, responses and decision support at local, state, national, and international levels. The products of WIFIRE will be initially disseminated to our collaborators (SDG&E, CAL FIRE, USFS), covering academic, private, and government laboratories while generating values to emergency officials, and consequently to the general public. WIFIRE may be used by government agencies in the future to save lives and property during wildfire events, test the effectiveness of response and evacuation scenarios before they occur and assess the effectiveness of high-density sensor networks in improving fire and weather predictions. WIFIRE's high-density network, therefore, will serve as a testbed for future applications worldwide.

Reconstructing past fire regimes: methods, applications, and relevance to fire management and conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conedera, Marco; Tinner, Willy; Neff, Christophe; Meurer, Manfred; Dickens, Angela F.; Krebs, Patrik

2009-03-01

Biomass burning and resulting fire regimes are major drivers of vegetation changes and of ecosystem dynamics. Understanding past fire dynamics and their relationship to these factors is thus a key factor in preserving and managing present biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Unfortunately, our understanding of the disturbance dynamics of past fires is incomplete, and many open questions exist relevant to these concepts and the related methods. In this paper we describe the present status of the fire-regime concept, discuss the notion of the fire continuum and related proxies, and review the most important existing approaches for reconstructing fire history at centennial to millennial scales. We conclude with a short discussion of selected directions for future research that may lead to a better understanding of past fire-regime dynamics. In particular, we suggest that emphasis should be laid on (1) discriminating natural from anthropogenic fire-regime types, (2) improving combined analysis of fire and vegetation reconstructions to study long-term fire ecology, and (3) overcoming problems in defining temporal and spatial scales of reference, which would allow better use of past records to gain important insights for landscape, fire and forest management.

Did the summer 2003 forest fires in Portugal affect air quality over Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miranda, A. I.; Martins, V.; Sá, E.; Carvalho, A.; Amorim, J. H.; Borrego, C.

2009-04-01

A forest fire is a large-scale natural combustion process consuming various types, sizes and ages of botanical specimen growing outdoors in a defined geographical area. Although wildland fires are an integral part of ecosystems management and are essential to maintain functional ecosystems their dimensions can give rise to disastrous results. Due to the frequency of occurrence and the magnitude of effects on the environment, health, economy and security, forest fires have increasingly become a major subject of concern for decision-makers, firefighters, researchers and citizens in general. Among their consequences, is the emission of various environmentally significant gases and solid particulate matter to the atmosphere that interfere with local, regional and global phenomena in the biosphere. Smoke from forest fires contains important amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), particulate matter (PM) (that is usually referred in terms of particles with a mean diameter less than 2.5 μm, or PM2.5, and particles with a mean diameter less than 10 μm, or PM10), non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) and other chemical compounds. These air pollutants can cause serious consequences to local and regional air quality by reducing visibility, contributing to smog and impairing air quality in general, thus threatening human health and ecosystems. Pollutants emitted from forest fires are transported, chemically transformed, and dispersed in the atmosphere. Although major wildfires are limited to some hundreds of hectares, their impacts, with no natural or political boundaries, can be felt and reported far beyond the physical limits of the fire spread. Depending on meteorological conditions, smoke plumes and haze layers can persist in the atmosphere for long periods of time and prevailing conditions will influence the chemical and optical characteristics of the plume. The extreme fire events occurred in the summer of 2003 in Portugal highlighted the need to better analyze the link between forest fires and air quality. Portugal faced in 2003, the worst fire season ever recorded and this is clearly reflected in the values measured by the air quality-monitoring networks. There were 4,645 fires burning 8.6% of the total Portuguese forest area. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the contribution of summer 2003 Portuguese fires to air quality impairment in Europe. Portuguese forest fire emissions, namely CO2, CO, CH4, PM10, PM2.5, NMHC, NOx, SO2 and NH3, were estimated throughout the summer of 2003, based on specific southern European emissions factors, on type of vegetation and area burned. LOTOS-EUROS, which is an operational 3D chemistry transport model aimed to simulate air pollution in the lower troposphere, was specifically adapted to simulate forest fire emissions. The modelling system was applied first at a continental scale (with 0.5° x 0.25°, approximately 35 km x 25 km) and then to mainland Portugal domain, using the same physics and a simple one-way nesting technique, with 17.5 km x 12.5 km horizontal resolution. The simulation period covered the entire summer, aiming to estimate hourly concentration values of gaseous and particulate pollutants levels in the air. A baseline simulation (BS) was carried out, only including the "conventional" anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, and a forest fire simulation (FS), which also considered emissions from large forest fires (area burned higher than 100 ha). Hence, forest fire emissions values were added to the anthropogenic and biogenic grid emissions, according to the fire location and assuming a uniform fire spread and a constant injection altitude in the dynamic mixing layer. The modelling system indicates a severe degradation of particulate matter and ozone (O3) concentrations due to forest fires, not only in Portugal, but also in United Kingdom, France and Spain. Modelling results were compared to background monitoring data from the European Air quality dataBase (AIRBASE). A statistical analysis was performed to evaluate the simulations results, using some statistical parameters such as the root mean square error (RMSE), the systematic error (BIAS) and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r). The model performance increased substantially when forest fire emissions were included.

Dynamic Load Measurement of Ballistic Gelatin Impact Using an Instrumented Tube

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seidt, J. D.; Periira, J. M.; Hammer, J. T.; Gilat, A.; Ruggeri, C. R.

2012-01-01

Bird strikes are a common problem for the aerospace industry and can cause serious damage to an aircraft. Ballistic gelatin is frequently used as a surrogate for actual bird carcasses in bird strike tests. Numerical simulations of these tests are used to supplement experimental data, therefore it is necessary to use numerical modeling techniques that can accurately capture the dynamic response of ballistic gelatin. An experimental technique is introduced to validate these modeling techniques. A ballistic gelatin projectile is fired into a strike plate attached to a 36 in. long sensor tube. Dynamic load is measured at two locations relative to the strike plate using strain gages configured in a full Wheatstone bridge. Data from these experiments are used to validate a gelatin constitutive model. Simulations of the apparatus are analyzed to investigate its performance.

Large eddy simulation of fire-induced buoyancy driven plume dispersion in an urban street canyon under perpendicular wind flow.

PubMed

Hu, L H; Huo, R; Yang, D

2009-07-15

The dispersion of fire-induced buoyancy driven plume in and above an idealized street canyon of 18 m (width) x 18 m (height) x 40 m (length) with a wind flow perpendicular to its axis was investigated by Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), Large Eddy Simulation (LES). Former studies, such as that by Oka [T.R. Oke, Street design and urban canopy layer climate, Energy Build. 11 (1988) 103-113], Gayev and Savory [Y.A. Gayev, E. Savory, Influence of street obstructions on flow processes within street canyons. J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 82 (1999) 89-103], Xie et al. [S. Xie, Y. Zhang, L. Qi, X. Tang, Spatial distribution of traffic-related pollutant concentrations in street canyons. Atmos. Environ. 37 (2003) 3213-3224], Baker et al. [J. Baker, H. L. Walker, X. M. Cai, A study of the dispersion and transport of reactive pollutants in and above street canyons--a large eddy simulation, Atmos. Environ. 38 (2004) 6883-6892] and Baik et al. [J.-J. Baik, Y.-S. Kang, J.-J. Kim, Modeling reactive pollutant dispersion in an urban street canyon, Atmos. Environ. 41 (2007) 934-949], focus on the flow pattern and pollutant dispersion in the street canyon with no buoyancy effect. Results showed that with the increase of the wind flow velocity, the dispersion pattern of a buoyant plume fell into four regimes. When the wind flow velocity increased up to a certain critical level, the buoyancy driven upward rising plume was re-entrained back into the street canyon. This is a dangerous situation as the harmful fire smoke will accumulate to pollute the environment and thus threaten the safety of the people in the street canyon. This critical re-entrainment wind velocity, as an important parameter to be concerned, was further revealed to increase asymptotically with the heat/buoyancy release rate of the fire.

Sensitivity of woody carbon stocks to bark investment strategy in Neotropical savannas and forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, Anna T.; Medvigy, David; Hoffmann, William A.; Pellegrini, Adam F. A.

2018-01-01

Fire frequencies are changing in Neotropical savannas and forests as a result of forest fragmentation and increasing drought. Such changes in fire regime and climate are hypothesized to destabilize tropical carbon storage, but there has been little consideration of the widespread variability in tree fire tolerance strategies. To test how aboveground carbon stocks change with fire frequency and composition of plants with different fire tolerance strategies, we update the Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) with (i) a fire survivorship module based on tree bark thickness (a key fire-tolerance trait across woody plants in savannas and forests), and (ii) plant functional types representative of trees in the region. With these updates, the model is better able to predict how fire frequency affects population demography and aboveground woody carbon. Simulations illustrate that the high survival rate of thick-barked, large trees reduces carbon losses with increasing fire frequency, with high investment in bark being particularly important in reducing losses in the wettest sites. Additionally, in landscapes that frequently burn, bark investment can broaden the range of climate and fire conditions under which savannas occur by reducing the range of conditions leading to either complete tree loss or complete grass loss. These results highlight that tropical vegetation dynamics depend not only on rainfall and changing fire frequencies but also on tree fire survival strategy. Further, our results indicate that fire survival strategy is fundamentally important in regulating tree size demography in ecosystems exposed to fire, which increases the preservation of aboveground carbon stocks and the coexistence of different plant functional groups.

Hydrological modelling for flood forecasting: Calibrating the post-fire initial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathanasiou, C.; Makropoulos, C.; Mimikou, M.

2015-10-01

Floods and forest fires are two of the most devastating natural hazards with severe socioeconomic, environmental as well as aesthetic impacts on the affected areas. Traditionally, these hazards are examined from different perspectives and are thus investigated through different, independent systems, overlooking the fact that they are tightly interrelated phenomena. In fact, the same flood event is more severe, i.e. associated with increased runoff discharge and peak flow and decreased time to peak, if it occurs over a burnt area than that occurring over a land not affected by fire. Mediterranean periurban areas, where forests covered with flammable vegetation coexist with agricultural land and urban zones, are typical areas particularly prone to the combined impact of floods and forest fires. Hence, the accurate assessment and effective management of post-fire flood risk becomes an issue of priority. The research presented in this paper aims to develop a robust methodological framework, using state of art tools and modern technologies to support the estimation of the change in time of five representative hydrological parameters for post-fire conditions. The proposed methodology considers both longer- and short-term initial conditions in order to assess the dynamic evolution of the selected parameters. The research focuses on typical Mediterranean periurban areas that are subjected to both hazards and concludes with a set of equations that associate post-fire and pre-fire conditions for five Fire Severity (FS) classes and three soil moisture states. The methodology has been tested for several flood events on the Rafina catchment, a periurban catchment in Eastern Attica (Greece). In order to validate the methodology, simulated hydrographs were produced and compared against available observed data. Results indicate a close convergence of observed and simulated flows. The proposed methodology is particularly flexible and thus easily adaptable to catchments with similar hydrometeorological and geomorphological features.

Intrinsic Cellular Properties and Connectivity Density Determine Variable Clustering Patterns in Randomly Connected Inhibitory Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Rich, Scott; Booth, Victoria; Zochowski, Michal

2016-01-01

The plethora of inhibitory interneurons in the hippocampus and cortex play a pivotal role in generating rhythmic activity by clustering and synchronizing cell firing. Results of our simulations demonstrate that both the intrinsic cellular properties of neurons and the degree of network connectivity affect the characteristics of clustered dynamics exhibited in randomly connected, heterogeneous inhibitory networks. We quantify intrinsic cellular properties by the neuron's current-frequency relation (IF curve) and Phase Response Curve (PRC), a measure of how perturbations given at various phases of a neurons firing cycle affect subsequent spike timing. We analyze network bursting properties of networks of neurons with Type I or Type II properties in both excitability and PRC profile; Type I PRCs strictly show phase advances and IF curves that exhibit frequencies arbitrarily close to zero at firing threshold while Type II PRCs display both phase advances and delays and IF curves that have a non-zero frequency at threshold. Type II neurons whose properties arise with or without an M-type adaptation current are considered. We analyze network dynamics under different levels of cellular heterogeneity and as intrinsic cellular firing frequency and the time scale of decay of synaptic inhibition are varied. Many of the dynamics exhibited by these networks diverge from the predictions of the interneuron network gamma (ING) mechanism, as well as from results in all-to-all connected networks. Our results show that randomly connected networks of Type I neurons synchronize into a single cluster of active neurons while networks of Type II neurons organize into two mutually exclusive clusters segregated by the cells' intrinsic firing frequencies. Networks of Type II neurons containing the adaptation current behave similarly to networks of either Type I or Type II neurons depending on network parameters; however, the adaptation current creates differences in the cluster dynamics compared to those in networks of Type I or Type II neurons. To understand these results, we compute neuronal PRCs calculated with a perturbation matching the profile of the synaptic current in our networks. Differences in profiles of these PRCs across the different neuron types reveal mechanisms underlying the divergent network dynamics. PMID:27812323

A micromechanical constitutive model for the dynamic response of brittle materials "Dynamic response of marble"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberman, Keith

2001-07-01

A micromechanically based constitutive model for the dynamic inelastic behavior of brittle materials, specifically "Dionysus-Pentelicon marble" with distributed microcracking is presented. Dionysus-Pentelicon marble was used in the construction of the Parthenon, in Athens, Greece. The constitutive model is a key component in the ability to simulate this historic explosion and the preceding bombardment form cannon fire that occurred at the Parthenon in 1678. Experiments were performed by Rosakis (1999) that characterized the static and dynamic response of this unique material. A micromechanical constitutive model that was previously successfully used to model the dynamic response of granular brittle materials is presented. The constitutive model was fitted to the experimental data for marble and reproduced the experimentally observed basic uniaxial dynamic behavior quite well. This micromechanical constitutive model was then implemented into the three dimensional nonlinear lagrangain finite element code Dyna3d(1998). Implementing this methodology into the three dimensional nonlinear dynamic finite element code allowed the model to be exercised on several preliminary impact experiments. During future simulations, the model is to be used in conjunction with other numerical techniques to simulate projectile impact and blast loading on the Dionysus-Pentelicon marble and on the structure of the Parthenon.

A study on fire spreading model for the safety distance between the neighborhood occupancies and historical buildings in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. H.; Chien, S. W.; Ho, M. C.

2015-08-01

Cultural heritages and historical buildings are vulnerable against severe threats from fire. Since the 1970s, ten fire-spread events involving historic buildings have occurred in Taiwan, affecting a total of 132 nearby buildings. Developed under the influence of traditional Taiwanese culture, historic buildings in Taiwan are often built using non-fire resistant brick-wood structure and located in proximity to residential occupancies. Fire outbreak in these types of neighborhood will lead to severe damage of antiquities, leaving only unrecoverable historical imagery. This study is aimed to investigate the minimal safety distance required between a historical building and its surroundings in order to reduce the risk of external fire. This study is based on literature analysis and the fire spread model using a Fire Dynamics Simulator. The selected target is Jingmei Temple in Taipei City. This study explored local geography to identify patterns behind historical buildings distribution. In the past, risk reduction engineering for cultural heritages and historical buildings focused mainly on fire equipment and the available personnel with emergency response ability, and little attention was given to external fire risks and the affected damage. Through discussions on the required safety distance, this research provides guidelines for the following items: management of neighborhoods with historical buildings and consultation between the protection of cultural heritages and disaster prevention, reducing the frequency and extent of fire damages, and preserving cultural resource.

How Fire History, Fire Suppression Practices and Climate Change Affect Wildfire Regimes in Mediterranean Landscapes

PubMed Central

Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

2013-01-01

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and socioeconomic factors such as fire suppression strategies. PMID:23658726

How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

PubMed

Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

2013-01-01

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and socioeconomic factors such as fire suppression strategies.

Stochastic inference with spiking neurons in the high-conductance state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrovici, Mihai A.; Bill, Johannes; Bytschok, Ilja; Schemmel, Johannes; Meier, Karlheinz

2016-10-01

The highly variable dynamics of neocortical circuits observed in vivo have been hypothesized to represent a signature of ongoing stochastic inference but stand in apparent contrast to the deterministic response of neurons measured in vitro. Based on a propagation of the membrane autocorrelation across spike bursts, we provide an analytical derivation of the neural activation function that holds for a large parameter space, including the high-conductance state. On this basis, we show how an ensemble of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with conductance-based synapses embedded in a spiking environment can attain the correct firing statistics for sampling from a well-defined target distribution. For recurrent networks, we examine convergence toward stationarity in computer simulations and demonstrate sample-based Bayesian inference in a mixed graphical model. This points to a new computational role of high-conductance states and establishes a rigorous link between deterministic neuron models and functional stochastic dynamics on the network level.

Sequentially switching cell assemblies in random inhibitory networks of spiking neurons in the striatum.

PubMed

Ponzi, Adam; Wickens, Jeff

2010-04-28

The striatum is composed of GABAergic medium spiny neurons with inhibitory collaterals forming a sparse random asymmetric network and receiving an excitatory glutamatergic cortical projection. Because the inhibitory collaterals are sparse and weak, their role in striatal network dynamics is puzzling. However, here we show by simulation of a striatal inhibitory network model composed of spiking neurons that cells form assemblies that fire in sequential coherent episodes and display complex identity-temporal spiking patterns even when cortical excitation is simply constant or fluctuating noisily. Strongly correlated large-scale firing rate fluctuations on slow behaviorally relevant timescales of hundreds of milliseconds are shown by members of the same assembly whereas members of different assemblies show strong negative correlation, and we show how randomly connected spiking networks can generate this activity. Cells display highly irregular spiking with high coefficients of variation, broadly distributed low firing rates, and interspike interval distributions that are consistent with exponentially tailed power laws. Although firing rates vary coherently on slow timescales, precise spiking synchronization is absent in general. Our model only requires the minimal but striatally realistic assumptions of sparse to intermediate random connectivity, weak inhibitory synapses, and sufficient cortical excitation so that some cells are depolarized above the firing threshold during up states. Our results are in good qualitative agreement with experimental studies, consistent with recently determined striatal anatomy and physiology, and support a new view of endogenously generated metastable state switching dynamics of the striatal network underlying its information processing operations.

Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Terando, Adam J.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2015-01-01

Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the face of these drivers. Our results show that while climatic warming had little effect on the wildfire regime, and thus on longleaf pine dynamics, urban growth led to an 8% reduction in annual wildfire area. The management scenarios we tested increase the ecosystem's total extent by up to 62% and result in expansion of open-canopy longleaf by as much as 216%, meeting one of the two conservation goals for the ecosystem. We find that both conservation goals for this ecosystem, which is climate-resilient but vulnerable to urbanization, are only attainable if a greater focus is placed on restoration of non-longleaf areas as opposed to maintaining existing longleaf stands. Our approach demonstrates the importance of accounting for multiple relevant anthropogenic threats in an ecosystem-specific context in order to facilitate more effective management actions.

Numerical Modelling of Fire-Atmosphere Interactions and the 2003 Canberra Bushfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, C.; Sturman, A.; Zawar-Reza, P.

2010-12-01

It is well known that the behaviour of a wildland fire is strongly associated with the conditions of its surrounding atmosphere. However, the two-way interactions between fire behaviour and the atmospheric conditions are not well understood. A numerical model is used to simulate wildland fires so that the nature of these fire-atmosphere interactions, and how they might affect fire behaviour, can be further investigated. The 2003 Canberra bushfires are used as a case study due to their highly destructive and unusual behaviour. On the 18th January 2003, these fires spread to the urban suburbs of Canberra, resulting in the loss of four lives and the destruction of over 500 homes. Fire-atmosphere interactions are believed to have played an important role in making these fires so destructive. WRF-Fire is used to perform real data simulations of the 2003 Canberra bushfires. WRF-Fire is a coupled fire-atmosphere model, which combines a semi-empirical fire spread model with an atmospheric model, allowing it to directly simulate the two-way interactions between a fire and its surrounding atmosphere. These simulations show the impact of the presence of a fire on conditions within the atmospheric boundary layer. This modification of the atmosphere, resulting from the injection of heat and moisture released by the fire, appears to have a direct feedback onto the overall fire behaviour. The bushfire simulations presented in this paper provide important scientific insights into the nature of fire-atmosphere interactions for a real situation. It is expected that they will also help fire managers in Australia to better understand why the 2003 Canberra bushfires were so destructive, as well as to gain improved insight into bushfire behaviour in general.

Fire modeling in the Brazilian arc of deforestation through nested coupling of atmosphere, dynamic vegetation, LUCC and fire spread models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourigny, E.; Nobre, C.; Cardoso, M. F.

2012-12-01

Deforestation of tropical forests for logging and agriculture, associated to slash-and-burn practices, is a major source of CO2 emissions, both immediate due to biomass burning and future due to the elimination of a potential CO2 sink. Feedbacks between climate change and LUCC (Land-Use and Land-Cover Change) can potentially increase the loss of tropical forests and increase the rate of CO2 emissions, through mechanisms such as land and soil degradation and the increase in wildfire occurrence and severity. However, current understanding of the processes of fires (including ignition, spread and consequences) in tropical forests and climatic feedbacks are poorly understood and need further research. As the processes of LUCC and associated fires occur at local scales, linking them to large-scale atmospheric processes requires a means of up-scaling higher resolutions processes to lower resolutions. Our approach is to couple models which operate at various spatial and temporal scales: a Global Climate Model (GCM), Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) and local-scale LUCC and fire spread model. The climate model resolves large scale atmospheric processes and forcings, which are imposed on the surface DGVM and fed-back to climate. Higher-resolution processes such as deforestation, land use management and associated (as well as natural) fires are resolved at the local level. A dynamic tiling scheme allows to represent local-scale heterogeneity while maintaining computational efficiency of the land surface model, compared to traditional landscape models. Fire behavior is modeled at the regional scale (~500m) to represent the detailed landscape using a semi-empirical fire spread model. The relatively coarse scale (as compared to other fire spread models) is necessary due to the paucity of detailed land-cover information and fire history (particularly in the tropics and developing countries). This work presents initial results of a spatially-explicit fire spread model coupled to the IBIS DGVM model. Our area of study comprises selected regions in and near the Brazilian "arc of deforestation". For model training and evaluation, several areas have been mapped using high-resolution imagery from the Landsat TM/ETM+ sensors (Figure 1). This high resolution reference data is used for local-scale simulations and also to evaluate the accuracy of the global MCD45 burned area product, which will be used in future studies covering the entire "arc of deforestation".; Area of study along the arc of deforestation and cerrado: landsat scenes used and burned area (2010) from MCD45 product.

Design of Experiment and Analysis for the Joint Dynamic Allocation of Fires and Sensors (JDAFS) Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

other databases such as MySQL , Oracle , and Derby will be added to future versions of the program. Setting a factor requires more than changing a single...Non-Penetrating vs . Penetrating Results.............106 a. Coverage...Interaction Profile for D U-2 and C RQ-4 .......................................................89 Figure 59. R-Squared vs . Number of Regression Tree

Simulating coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics following bark beetle outbreaks in the western United States

Treesearch

Steven L. Edburg; Jeffrey A. Hicke; David M. Lawrence; Peter E. Thornton

2011-01-01

Insect outbreaks are major ecosystem disturbances, affecting a similar area as forest fires annually across North America. Tree mortality caused by bark beetle outbreaks alters carbon cycling in the first several years following the disturbance by reducing stand-level primary production and by increasing the amount of dead organic matter available for decomposition....

Irregular Collective Behavior of Heterogeneous Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luccioli, Stefano; Politi, Antonio

2010-10-01

We investigate a network of integrate-and-fire neurons characterized by a distribution of spiking frequencies. Upon increasing the coupling strength, the model exhibits a transition from an asynchronous regime to a nontrivial collective behavior. Numerical simulations of large systems indicate that, at variance with the Kuramoto model, (i) the macroscopic dynamics stays irregular and (ii) the microscopic (single-neuron) evolution is linearly stable.

Enforcing realizability in explicit multi-component species transport

PubMed Central

McDermott, Randall J.; Floyd, Jason E.

2015-01-01

We propose a strategy to guarantee realizability of species mass fractions in explicit time integration of the partial differential equations governing fire dynamics, which is a multi-component transport problem (realizability requires all mass fractions are greater than or equal to zero and that the sum equals unity). For a mixture of n species, the conventional strategy is to solve for n − 1 species mass fractions and to obtain the nth (or “background”) species mass fraction from one minus the sum of the others. The numerical difficulties inherent in the background species approach are discussed and the potential for realizability violations is illustrated. The new strategy solves all n species transport equations and obtains density from the sum of the species mass densities. To guarantee realizability the species mass densities must remain positive (semidefinite). A scalar boundedness correction is proposed that is based on a minimal diffusion operator. The overall scheme is implemented in a publicly available large-eddy simulation code called the Fire Dynamics Simulator. A set of test cases is presented to verify that the new strategy enforces realizability, does not generate spurious mass, and maintains second-order accuracy for transport. PMID:26692634

An integrated land change model for projecting future climate and land change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wimberly, Michael; Sohl, Terry L.; Lamsal, Aashis; Liu, Zhihua; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have myriad effects on ecosystems worldwide, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances will be key drivers of these dynamics. In addition to climatic effects, continual expansion of human settlement into fire-prone forests will alter fire regimes, increase human vulnerability, and constrain future forest management options. There is a need for modeling tools to support the simulation and assessment of new management strategies over large regions in the context of changing climate, shifting development patterns, and an expanding wildland-urban interface. To address this need, we developed a prototype land change simulator that combines human-driven land use change (derived from the FORE-SCE model) with natural disturbances and vegetation dynamics (derived from the LADS model) and incorporates novel feedbacks between human land use and disturbance regimes. The prototype model was implemented in a test region encompassing the Denver metropolitan area along with its surrounding forested and agricultural landscapes. Initial results document the feasibility of integrated land change modeling at a regional scale but also highlighted conceptual and technical challenges for this type of model integration. Ongoing development will focus on improving climate sensitivities and modeling constraints imposed by climate change and human population growth on forest management activities.

Fuselage ventilation due to wind flow about a postcrash aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stuart, J. W.

1980-01-01

Postcrash aircraft fuselage fire development, dependent on the internal and external fluid dynamics is discussed. The natural ventilation rate, a major factor in the internal flow patterns and fire development is reviewed. The flow about the fuselage as affected by the wind and external fire is studied. An analysis was performend which estimated the rates of ventilation produced by the wind for a limited idealized environmental configuration. The simulation utilizes the empirical pressure coefficient distribution of an infinite circular cylinder near a wall with its boundary later flow to represent the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting maximum ventilation rate for two door size openings, with varying circumferential location in a common 10 mph wind was an order of magnitude greater than the forced ventilation specified in full scale fire testing. The parameter discussed are: (1) fuselage size and shape, (2) fuselage orientation and proximity to the ground, (3) fuselage-openings size and location, (4) wind speed and direction, and (5) induced flow of the external fire plume is recommended. The fire testing should be conducted to a maximum ventilation rate at least an order of magnitude greater than the inflight air conditioning rates.

A new bio-inspired stimulator to suppress hyper-synchronized neural firing in a cortical network.

PubMed

Amiri, Masoud; Amiri, Mahmood; Nazari, Soheila; Faez, Karim

2016-12-07

Hyper-synchronous neural oscillations are the character of several neurological diseases such as epilepsy. On the other hand, glial cells and particularly astrocytes can influence neural synchronization. Therefore, based on the recent researches, a new bio-inspired stimulator is proposed which basically is a dynamical model of the astrocyte biophysical model. The performance of the new stimulator is investigated on a large-scale, cortical network. Both excitatory and inhibitory synapses are also considered in the simulated spiking neural network. The simulation results show that the new stimulator has a good performance and is able to reduce recurrent abnormal excitability which in turn avoids the hyper-synchronous neural firing in the spiking neural network. In this way, the proposed stimulator has a demand controlled characteristic and is a good candidate for deep brain stimulation (DBS) technique to successfully suppress the neural hyper-synchronization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving the thermal efficiency of a jaggery production module using a fire-tube heat exchanger.

PubMed

La Madrid, Raul; Orbegoso, Elder Mendoza; Saavedra, Rafael; Marcelo, Daniel

2017-12-15

Jaggery is a product obtained after heating and evaporation processes have been applied to sugar cane juice via the addition of thermal energy, followed by the crystallisation process through mechanical agitation. At present, jaggery production uses furnaces and pans that are designed empirically based on trial and error procedures, which results in low ranges of thermal efficiency operation. To rectify these deficiencies, this study proposes the use of fire-tube pans to increase heat transfer from the flue gases to the sugar cane juice. With the aim of increasing the thermal efficiency of a jaggery installation, a computational fluid dynamic (CFD)-based model was used as a numerical tool to design a fire-tube pan that would replace the existing finned flat pan. For this purpose, the original configuration of the jaggery furnace was simulated via a pre-validated CFD model in order to calculate its current thermal performance. Then, the newly-designed fire-tube pan was virtually replaced in the jaggery furnace with the aim of numerically estimating the thermal performance at the same operating conditions. A comparison of both simulations highlighted the growth of the heat transfer rate at around 105% in the heating/evaporation processes when the fire-tube pan replaced the original finned flat pan. This enhancement impacted the jaggery production installation, whereby the thermal efficiency of the installation increased from 31.4% to 42.8%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of ignition location models on the burn patterns of simulated wildfires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Syphard, A.D.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Radeloff, V.C.

2011-01-01

Fire simulation studies that use models such as FARSITE often assume that ignition locations are distributed randomly, because spatially explicit information about actual ignition locations are difficult to obtain. However, many studies show that the spatial distribution of ignition locations, whether human-caused or natural, is non-random. Thus, predictions from fire simulations based on random ignitions may be unrealistic. However, the extent to which the assumption of ignition location affects the predictions of fire simulation models has never been systematically explored. Our goal was to assess the difference in fire simulations that are based on random versus non-random ignition location patterns. We conducted four sets of 6000 FARSITE simulations for the Santa Monica Mountains in California to quantify the influence of random and non-random ignition locations and normal and extreme weather conditions on fire size distributions and spatial patterns of burn probability. Under extreme weather conditions, fires were significantly larger for non-random ignitions compared to random ignitions (mean area of 344.5 ha and 230.1 ha, respectively), but burn probability maps were highly correlated (r = 0.83). Under normal weather, random ignitions produced significantly larger fires than non-random ignitions (17.5 ha and 13.3 ha, respectively), and the spatial correlations between burn probability maps were not high (r = 0.54), though the difference in the average burn probability was small. The results of the study suggest that the location of ignitions used in fire simulation models may substantially influence the spatial predictions of fire spread patterns. However, the spatial bias introduced by using a random ignition location model may be minimized if the fire simulations are conducted under extreme weather conditions when fire spread is greatest. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

OR fire virtual training simulator: design and face validity.

PubMed

Dorozhkin, Denis; Olasky, Jaisa; Jones, Daniel B; Schwaitzberg, Steven D; Jones, Stephanie B; Cao, Caroline G L; Molina, Marcos; Henriques, Steven; Wang, Jinling; Flinn, Jeff; De, Suvranu

2017-09-01

The Virtual Electrosurgical Skill Trainer is a tool for training surgeons the safe operation of electrosurgery tools in both open and minimally invasive surgery. This training includes a dedicated team-training module that focuses on operating room (OR) fire prevention and response. The module was developed to allow trainees, practicing surgeons, anesthesiologist, and nurses to interact with a virtual OR environment, which includes anesthesia apparatus, electrosurgical equipment, a virtual patient, and a fire extinguisher. Wearing a head-mounted display, participants must correctly identify the "fire triangle" elements and then successfully contain an OR fire. Within these virtual reality scenarios, trainees learn to react appropriately to the simulated emergency. A study targeted at establishing the face validity of the virtual OR fire simulator was undertaken at the 2015 Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgeons conference. Forty-nine subjects with varying experience participated in this Institutional Review Board-approved study. The subjects were asked to complete the OR fire training/prevention sequence in the VEST simulator. Subjects were then asked to answer a subjective preference questionnaire consisting of sixteen questions, focused on the usefulness and fidelity of the simulator. On a 5-point scale, 12 of 13 questions were rated at a mean of 3 or greater (92%). Five questions were rated above 4 (38%), particularly those focusing on the simulator effectiveness and its usefulness in OR fire safety training. A total of 33 of the 49 participants (67%) chose the virtual OR fire trainer over the traditional training methods such as a textbook or an animal model. Training for OR fire emergencies in fully immersive VR environments, such as the VEST trainer, may be the ideal training modality. The face validity of the OR fire training module of the VEST simulator was successfully established on many aspects of the simulation.

Dynamics of Large Systems of Nonlinearly Evolving Units

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Zhixin

The dynamics of large systems of many nonlinearly evolving units is a general research area that has great importance for many areas in science and technology, including biology, computation by artificial neural networks, statistical mechanics, flocking in animal groups, the dynamics of coupled neurons in the brain, and many others. While universal principles and techniques are largely lacking in this broad area of research, there is still one particular phenomenon that seems to be broadly applicable. In particular, this is the idea of emergence, by which is meant macroscopic behaviors that "emerge" from a large system of many "smaller or simpler entities such that...large entities" [i.e., macroscopic behaviors] arise which "exhibit properties the smaller/simpler entities do not exhibit." In this thesis we investigate mechanisms and manifestations of emergence in four dynamical systems consisting many nonlinearly evolving units. These four systems are as follows. (a) We first study the motion of a large ensemble of many noninteracting particles in a slowly changing Hamiltonian system that undergoes a separatrix crossing. In such systems, we find that separatrix-crossing induces a counterintuitive effect. Specifically, numerical simulation of two sets of densely sprinkled initial conditions on two energy curves appears to suggest that the two energy curves, one originally enclosing the other, seemingly interchange their positions. This, however, is topologically forbidden. We resolve this paradox by introducing a numerical simulation method we call "robust" and study its consequences. (b) We next study the collective dynamics of oscillatory pacemaker neurons in Suprachiasmatic Nucleus (SCN), which, through synchrony, govern the circadian rhythm of mammals. We start from a high-dimensional description of the many coupled oscillatory neuronal units within the SCN. This description is based on a forced Kuramoto model. We then reduce the system dimensionality by using the Ott Antonsen Ansatz and obtain a low-dimensional macroscopic description. Using this reduced macroscopic system, we explain the east-west asymmetry of jet-lag recovery and discus the consequences of our findings. (c) Thirdly, we study neuron firing in integrate-and-fire neural networks. We build a discrete-state/discrete-time model with both excitatory and inhibitory neurons and find a phase transition between avalanching dynamics and ceaseless firing dynamics. Power-law firing avalanche size/duration distributions are observed at critical parameter values. Furthermore, in this critical regime we find the same power law exponents as those observed from experiments and previous, more restricted, simulation studies. We also employ a mean-field method and show that inhibitory neurons in this system promote robustness of the criticality (i.e., an enhanced range of system parameter where power-law avalanche statistics applies). (d) Lastly, we study the dynamics of "reservoir computing networks" (RCN's), which is a recurrent neural network (RNN) scheme for machine learning. The advantage of RCN's over traditional RNN's is that the training is done only on the output layer, usually via a simple least-square method. We show that RCN's are very effective for inferring unmeasured state variables of dynamical systems whose system state is only partially measured. Using the examples of the Lorenz system and the Rossler system we demonstrate the potential of an RCN to perform as an universal model-free "observer".

Computational modeling of blast exposure associated with recoilless weapons combat training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiri, S.; Ritter, A. C.; Bailie, J. M.; Needham, C.; Duckworth, J. L.

2017-11-01

Military personnel are exposed to blast as part of routine combat training with shoulder-fired recoilless rifles. These weapons fire large-caliber ammunitions capable of disabling structures and uparmored vehicles (e.g., tanks). Scientific, medical, and military leaders are beginning to recognize the blast overpressure from these shoulder-fired weapons may result in acute and even long-term physiological effects to military personnel. However, the back blast generated from the Carl Gustav and Shoulder-launched Multipurpose Assault Weapon (SMAW) shoulder-fired weapons on the weapon operator has not been quantified. By quantifying and modeling the full-body blast exposure from these weapons, better injury correlations can be constructed. Blast exposure data from the Carl Gustav and SMAW were used to calibrate a propellant burn source term for computational simulations of blast exposure on operators of these shoulder-mounted weapon systems. A propellant burn model provided the source term for each weapon to capture blast effects. Blast data from personnel-mounted gauges during weapon firing were used to create initial, high-fidelity 3D computational fluid dynamic simulations using SHAMRC (Second-order Hydrodynamic Automatic Mesh Refinement Code). These models were then improved upon using data collected from static blast sensors positioned around the military personnel while weapons were utilized in actual combat training. The final simulation models for both the Carl Gustav and SMAW were in good agreement with the data collected from the personnel-mounted and static pressure gauges. Using the final simulation results, contour maps were created for peak overpressure and peak overpressure impulse experienced by military personnel firing the weapon as well as those assisting with firing of those weapons. Reconstruction of the full-body blast loading enables a more accurate assessment of the cause of potential mechanisms of injury due to air blast even for subjects not wearing blast gauges themselves. By accurately understanding the blast exposure and its variations across an individual, more meaningful correlations with physiologic response including potential TBI spectrum physiology associated with sub-concussive blast exposure can be established. As blast injury thresholds become better defined, results from these reconstructions can provide important insights into approaches for reducing possible risk of injury to personnel operating shoulder-launched weapons.

Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

Treesearch

Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

2010-01-01

Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

Carbon Impacts of Fire- and Bark Beetle-Caused Tree Mortality across the Western US using the Community Land Model (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meddens, A. J.; Hicke, J. A.; Edburg, S. L.; Lawrence, D. M.

2013-12-01

Wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks cause major forest disturbances in the western US, affecting ecosystem productivity and thereby impacting forest carbon cycling and future climate. Despite the large spatial extent of tree mortality, quantifying carbon flux dynamics following fires and bark beetles over larger areas is challenging because of forest heterogeneity, varying disturbance severities, and field observation limitations. The objective of our study is to estimate these dynamics across the western US using the Community Land Model (version CLM4.5-BGC). CLM4.5-BGC is a land ecosystem model that mechanistically represents the exchanges of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen with the atmosphere. The most recent iteration of the model has been expanded to include vertically resolved soil biogeochemistry and includes improved nitrogen cycle representations including nitrification and denitrification and biological fixation as well as improved canopy processes including photosynthesis. Prior to conducting simulations, we modified CLM4.5-BGC to include the effects of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on carbon and nitrogen stocks and fluxes. Once modified, we conducted paired simulations (with and without) fire- and bark beetle-caused tree mortality by using regional data sets of observed mortality as inputs. Bark beetle-caused tree mortality was prescribed from a data set derived from US Forest Service aerial surveys from 1997 to 2010. Annual tree mortality area was produced from observed tree mortality caused by bark beetles and was adjusted for underestimation. Fires were prescribed using the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) database from 1984 to 2010. Annual tree mortality area was produced from forest cover maps and inclusion of moderate- and high-severity burned areas. Simulations show that maximum yearly reduction of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) caused by bark beetles is approximately 20 Tg C for the western US. Fires cause similar reductions in NEP, although the temporal pattern is different. The reductions in NEP from these major disturbances are similar to the variation in NEP caused by climatic conditions. When less favorable climatic conditions and these disturbances are co-occurring, forests switch from a carbon sink to a carbon source across the western US. This work increases understanding of the role of natural disturbances in the forest carbon budget of the western US.

Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, Anders; Xia, Jianyang; Arneth, Almut; Luo, Yiqi; Smith, Benjamin

2015-05-01

Terrestrial ecosystems currently sequester about one third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions each year, an important ecosystem service that dampens climate change. The future fate of this net uptake of CO2 by land based ecosystems is highly uncertain. Most ecosystem models used to predict the future terrestrial carbon cycle share a common architecture, whereby carbon that enters the system as net primary production (NPP) is distributed to plant compartments, transferred to litter and soil through vegetation turnover and then re-emitted to the atmosphere in conjunction with soil decomposition. However, while all models represent the processes of NPP and soil decomposition, they vary greatly in their representations of vegetation turnover and the associated processes governing mortality, disturbance and biome shifts. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality, and the associated turnover. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing. By exchanging carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations we quantified the relative roles of three main driving processes of the carbon cycle; (I) NPP, (II) vegetation dynamics and turnover and (III) soil decomposition, in terms of their contribution to future carbon (C) uptake uncertainties among the ensemble of climate change scenarios. We found that NPP, vegetation turnover (including structural shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33%, respectively, of uncertainties in modelled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation turnover was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by biome shifts, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.;

Intercomparison of cloud model simulations of Arctic mixed-phase boundary layer clouds observed during SHEBA/FIRE-ACE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrison, H.; Zuidema, Paquita; Ackerman, Andrew

2011-06-16

An intercomparison of six cloud-resolving and large-eddy simulation models is presented. This case study is based on observations of a persistent mixed-phase boundary layer cloud gathered on 7 May, 1998 from the Surface Heat Budget of Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) and First ISCCP Regional Experiment - Arctic Cloud Experiment (FIRE-ACE). Ice nucleation is constrained in the simulations in a way that holds the ice crystal concentration approximately fixed, with two sets of sensitivity runs in addition to the baseline simulations utilizing different specified ice nucleus (IN) concentrations. All of the baseline and sensitivity simulations group into two distinct quasi-steady states associatedmore » with either persistent mixed-phase clouds or all-ice clouds after the first few hours of integration, implying the existence of multiple equilibria. These two states are associated with distinctly different microphysical, thermodynamic, and radiative characteristics. Most but not all of the models produce a persistent mixed-phase cloud qualitatively similar to observations using the baseline IN/crystal concentration, while small increases in the IN/crystal concentration generally lead to rapid glaciation and conversion to the all-ice state. Budget analysis indicates that larger ice deposition rates associated with increased IN/crystal concentrations have a limited direct impact on dissipation of liquid in these simulations. However, the impact of increased ice deposition is greatly enhanced by several interaction pathways that lead to an increased surface precipitation flux, weaker cloud top radiative cooling and cloud dynamics, and reduced vertical mixing, promoting rapid glaciation of the mixed-phase cloud for deposition rates in the cloud layer greater than about 1-2x10-5 g kg-1 s-1. These results indicate the critical importance of precipitation-radiative-dynamical interactions in simulating cloud phase, which have been neglected in previous fixed-dynamical parcel studies of the cloud phase parameter space. Large sensitivity to the IN/crystal concentration also suggests the need for improved understanding of ice nucleation and its parameterization in models.« less

Forecasting and visualization of wildfires in a 3D geographical information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castrillón, M.; Jorge, P. A.; López, I. J.; Macías, A.; Martín, D.; Nebot, R. J.; Sabbagh, I.; Quintana, F. M.; Sánchez, J.; Sánchez, A. J.; Suárez, J. P.; Trujillo, A.

2011-03-01

This paper describes a wildfire forecasting application based on a 3D virtual environment and a fire simulation engine. A novel open-source framework is presented for the development of 3D graphics applications over large geographic areas, offering high performance 3D visualization and powerful interaction tools for the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) community. The application includes a remote module that allows simultaneous connections of several users for monitoring a real wildfire event. The system is able to make a realistic composition of what is really happening in the area of the wildfire with dynamic 3D objects and location of human and material resources in real time, providing a new perspective to analyze the wildfire information. The user is enabled to simulate and visualize the propagation of a fire on the terrain integrating at the same time spatial information on topography and vegetation types with weather and wind data. The application communicates with a remote web service that is in charge of the simulation task. The user may specify several parameters through a friendly interface before the application sends the information to the remote server responsible of carrying out the wildfire forecasting using the FARSITE simulation model. During the process, the server connects to different external resources to obtain up-to-date meteorological data. The client application implements a realistic 3D visualization of the fire evolution on the landscape. A Level Of Detail (LOD) strategy contributes to improve the performance of the visualization system.

Landscape anthropogenic disturbance in the Mediterranean ecosystem: is the current landscape sustainable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, Guido; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo; Franciosi, Chiara; Lima, Marco

2013-04-01

Mediterranean landscape during the last centuries has been subject to strong anthropogenic disturbances who shifted natural vegetation cover in a cultural landscape. Most of the natural forest were destroyed in order to allow cultivation and grazing activities. In the last century, fast growing conifer plantations were introduced in order to increase timber production replacing slow growing natural forests. In addition, after the Second World War most of the grazing areas were changed in unmanaged mediterranean conifer forest frequently spread by fires. In the last decades radical socio economic changes lead to a dramatic abandonment of the cultural landscape. One of the most relevant result of these human disturbances, and in particular the replacement of deciduous forests with coniferous forests, has been the increasing in the number of forest fires, mainly human caused. The presence of conifers and shrubs, more prone to fire, triggered a feedback mechanism that makes difficult to return to the stage of potential vegetation causing huge economic, social and environmental damages. The aim of this work is to investigate the sustainability of the current landscape. A future landscape scenario has been simulated considering the natural succession in absence of human intervention assuming the current fire regime will be unaltered. To this end, a new model has been defined, implementing an ecological succession model coupled with a simply Forest Fire Model. The ecological succession model simulates the vegetation dynamics using a rule-based approach discrete in space and time. In this model Plant Functional Types (PFTs) are used to describe the landscape. Wildfires are randomly ignited on the landscape, and their propagation is simulated using a stochastic cellular automata model. The results show that the success of the natural succession toward a potential vegetation cover is prevented by the frequency of fire spreading. The actual landscape is then unsustainable because of the high cost of fire fighting activities. The right path to success consists in development of suitable land use planning and forest management to mitigate the consequences of past anthropogenic disturbances.

Simulation of quaking aspen potential fire behavior in Northern Utah, USA

Treesearch

R. Justin DeRose; A. Joshua Leffler

2014-01-01

Current understanding of aspen fire ecology in western North America includes the paradoxical characterization that aspen-dominated stands, although often regenerated following fire, are “fire-proof”. We tested this idea by predicting potential fire behavior across a gradient of aspen dominance in northern Utah using the Forest Vegetation Simulator and the Fire and...

A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac C. Grenfell; Karin L. Riley; Karen C. Short

2011-01-01

This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for...

Applying fire spread simulators in New Zealand and Australia: Results from an international seminar

Treesearch

Tonja Opperman; Jim Gould; Mark Finney; Cordy Tymstra

2006-01-01

There is currently no spatial wildfire spread and growth simulation model used commonly across New Zealand or Australia. Fire management decision-making would be enhanced through the use of spatial fire simulators. Various groups from around the world met in January 2006 to evaluate the applicability of different spatial fire spread applications for common use in both...

Development of fire test methods for airplane interior materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tustin, E. A.

1978-01-01

Fire tests were conducted in a 737 airplane fuselage at NASA-JSC to characterize jet fuel fires in open steel pans (simulating post-crash fire sources and a ruptured airplane fuselage) and to characterize fires in some common combustibles (simulating in-flight fire sources). Design post-crash and in-flight fire source selections were based on these data. Large panels of airplane interior materials were exposed to closely-controlled large scale heating simulations of the two design fire sources in a Boeing fire test facility utilizing a surplused 707 fuselage section. Small samples of the same airplane materials were tested by several laboratory fire test methods. Large scale and laboratory scale data were examined for correlative factors. Published data for dangerous hazard levels in a fire environment were used as the basis for developing a method to select the most desirable material where trade-offs in heat, smoke and gaseous toxicant evolution must be considered.

Simulating Forest Carbon Dynamics in Response to Large-scale Fuel Reduction Treatments Under Projected Climate-fire Interactions in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, S.; Hurteau, M. D.

2016-12-01

The interaction of warmer, drier climate and increasing large wildfires, coupled with increasing fire severity resulting from fire-exclusion are anticipated to undermine forest carbon (C) stock stability and C sink strength in the Sierra Nevada forests. Treatments, including thinning and prescribed burning, to reduce biomass and restore forest structure have proven effective at reducing fire severity and lessening C loss when treated stands are burned by wildfire. However, the current pace and scale of treatment implementation is limited, especially given recent increases in area burned by wildfire. In this study, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the role of implementation timing of large-scale fuel reduction treatments in influencing forest C stock and fluxes of Sierra Nevada forests with projected climate and larger wildfires. We ran 90-year simulations using climate and wildfire projections from three general circulation models driven by the A2 emission scenario. We simulated two different treatment implementation scenarios: a `distributed' (treatments implemented throughout the simulation) and an `accelerated' (treatments implemented during the first half century) scenario. We found that across the study area, accelerated implementation had 0.6-10.4 Mg ha-1 higher late-century aboveground biomass (AGB) and 1.0-2.2 g C m-2 yr-1 higher mean C sink strength than the distributed scenario, depending on specific climate-wildfire projections. Cumulative wildfire emissions over the simulation period were 0.7-3.9 Mg C ha-1 higher for distributed implementation relative to accelerated implementation. However, simulations with both implementation practices have considerably higher AGB and C sink strength as well as lower wildfire emission than simulations in the absence of fuel reduction treatments. The results demonstrate the potential for implementing large-scale fuel reduction treatments to enhance forest C stock stability and C sink strength under projected climate-wildfire interactions. Given climate and wildfire would become more stressful since the mid-century, a forward management action would grant us more C benefits.

Wetland fire scar monitoring and analysis using archival Landsat data for the Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, John W.; Hall, Annette E.; Foster, Ann M.; Smith, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

The ability to document the frequency, extent, and severity of fires in wetlands, as well as the dynamics of post-fire wetland land cover, informs fire and wetland science, resource management, and ecosystem protection. Available information on Everglades burn history has been based on field data collection methods that evolved through time and differ by land management unit. Our objectives were to (1) design and test broadly applicable and repeatable metrics of not only fire scar delineation but also post-fire land cover dynamics through exhaustive use of the Landsat satellite data archives, and then (2) explore how those metrics relate to various hydrologic and anthropogenic factors that may influence post-fire land cover dynamics. Visual interpretation of every Landsat scene collected over the study region during the study time frame produced a new, detailed database of burn scars greater than 1.6 ha in size in the Water Conservation Areas and post-fire land cover dynamics for Everglades National Park fires greater than 1.6 ha in area. Median burn areas were compared across several landscape units of the Greater Everglades and found to differ as a function of administrative unit and fire history. Some burned areas transitioned to open water, exhibiting water depths and dynamics that support transition mechanisms proposed in the literature. Classification tree techniques showed that time to green-up and return to pre-burn character were largely explained by fire management practices and hydrology. Broadly applicable as they use data from the global, nearly 30-year-old Landsat archive, these methods for documenting wetland burn extent and post-fire land cover change enable cost-effective collection of new data on wetland fire ecology and independent assessment of fire management practice effectiveness.

Effects of fire and CO2 on biogeography and primary production in glacial and modern climates.

PubMed

Martin Calvo, Maria; Prentice, Iain Colin

2015-11-01

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) can disentangle causes and effects in the control of vegetation and fire. We used a DGVM to analyse climate, CO2 and fire influences on biome distribution and net primary production (NPP) in last glacial maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial (PI) times. The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) DGVM was run in a factorial design with fire 'off' or 'on', CO2 at LGM (185 ppm) or PI (280 ppm) concentrations, and LGM (modelled) or recent climates. Results were analysed by Stein-Alpert decomposition to separate primary effects from synergies. Fire removal causes forests to expand and global NPP to increase slightly. Low CO2 greatly reduces forest area (dramatically in a PI climate; realistically under an LGM climate) and global NPP. NPP under an LGM climate was reduced by a quarter as a result of low CO2 . The reduction in global NPP was smaller at low temperatures, but greater in the presence of fire. Global NPP is controlled by climate and CO2 directly through photosynthesis, but also through biome distribution, which is strongly influenced by fire. Future vegetation simulations will need to consider the coupled responses of vegetation and fire to CO2 and climate. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

FOCUS: a fire management planning system -- final report

Treesearch

Frederick W. Bratten; James B. Davis; George T. Flatman; Jerold W. Keith; Stanley R. Rapp; Theodore G. Storey

1981-01-01

FOCUS (Fire Operational Characteristics Using Simulation) is a computer simulation model for evaluating alternative fire management plans. This final report provides a broad overview of the FOCUS system, describes two major modules-fire suppression and cost, explains the role in the system of gaming large fires, and outlines the support programs and ways of...

Reliance on Simulation in Initial Entry Rifle Marksmanship Training and Future Directions for Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

Engagement Simulation Training, and a day of dry -fire. The comparison was conducted during training with iron sights. On the two criterion measures, the...other five days of training consisted of two days of Engagement Skills Trainer (EST) 2000 training, one day of dry -fire, and two days of live-fire...0 / RM1 Preliminary Marksmanship Training Same as Baseline 1 / RM2 EST 2000 (grouping/zeroing) Test-D Drills 2 / RM3 Dry -Fire Training 25m Live-Fire

Studying the effects of fuel treatment based on burn probability on a boreal forest landscape.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Yang, Jian; He, Hong S

2013-01-30

Fuel treatment is assumed to be a primary tactic to mitigate intense and damaging wildfires. However, how to place treatment units across a landscape and assess its effectiveness is difficult for landscape-scale fuel management planning. In this study, we used a spatially explicit simulation model (LANDIS) to conduct wildfire risk assessments and optimize the placement of fuel treatments at the landscape scale. We first calculated a baseline burn probability map from empirical data (fuel, topography, weather, and fire ignition and size data) to assess fire risk. We then prioritized landscape-scale fuel treatment based on maps of burn probability and fuel loads (calculated from the interactions among tree composition, stand age, and disturbance history), and compared their effects on reducing fire risk. The burn probability map described the likelihood of burning on a given location; the fuel load map described the probability that a high fuel load will accumulate on a given location. Fuel treatment based on the burn probability map specified that stands with high burn probability be treated first, while fuel treatment based on the fuel load map specified that stands with high fuel loads be treated first. Our results indicated that fuel treatment based on burn probability greatly reduced the burned area and number of fires of different intensities. Fuel treatment based on burn probability also produced more dispersed and smaller high-risk fire patches and therefore can improve efficiency of subsequent fire suppression. The strength of our approach is that more model components (e.g., succession, fuel, and harvest) can be linked into LANDIS to map the spatially explicit wildfire risk and its dynamics to fuel management, vegetation dynamics, and harvesting. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post-fire surface fuel dynamics in California forests across three burn severity classes

Treesearch

Bianca N. I. Eskelson; Vicente J. Monleon

2018-01-01

Forest wildfires consume fuel and are followed by post-fire fuel accumulation. This study examines post-fire surface fuel dynamics over 9 years across a wide range of conditions characteristic of California fires in dry conifer and hardwood forests. We estimated post-fire surface fuel loadings (Mg ha _1) from 191 repeatedly measured United States...

Impacts of prescribed fire on ecosystem C and N cycles at Fort Benning Installation, Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, S.; Liu, S.; Tieszen, L.

2007-12-01

A critical challenge for the land managers at military installation is to maintain the ecological sustainability of natural resources while meeting the needs of military training. Prescribed ground fire as a land management practice has been used to remove the ground layer plants at Fort Benning for two purposes: to facilitate access for military training, and to maintain and restore fire-adapted longleaf pine communities that are critical habitat for the federally endangered red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis). Nevertheless, the impacts of prescribed fire on ecosystem processes and health are not well-understood and quantified at the plot to regional scales. Frequent fire may result in ecosystem nitrogen (N) deficiency due to repeated N loss through combustion, volatilization, and leaching, threatening ecosystem sustainability at Fort Benning. On the other hand, N loss may be offset by enhanced symbiotic N2 fixation since fire favors herbaceous legumes by scarifying legume seeds and stimulating germination. Quantifying the impacts of prescribed fire on ecosystem carbon (C) and N cycles is further complicated by interactions and feedbacks among burning, nitrogen inputs, other land use practices (e.g. tree thinning or clear-cutting), and soil properties. In this study, we used the Erosion-Deposition-Carbon Model (EDCM), a process-based biogeochemical model, to simulate C and N dynamic at Fort Benning under different combinations of fire frequency, fire intensity, nitrogen deposition, legume nitrogen input, forest harvesting, and soil sand content. Model simulations indicated that prescribed fire led to nitrogen losses from ecosystems at Fort Benning, especially with high intensity and high frequency fires. Forest harvesting further intensified ecosystem nitrogen limitation, leading to reduced biophysical potential of C sequestration. The adverse impacts of prescribed fire and forest harvesting on C and N cycles were much higher in more sandy soil than in less sandy soil. N inputs from nitrogen deposition and legume N fixation helped replenish N losses to some extent. However, N losses due to fire and harvesting were not balanced or exceeded under current atmospheric N deposition and legume N input rates, suggesting additional N input (e.g., fertilization) may be needed to maintain the sustainability of current ecosystem states and management practices at Fort Benning.

Mapping and spatial-temporal modeling of Bromus tectorum invasion in central Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Zhenyu

Cheatgrass, or Downy Brome, is an exotic winter annual weed native to the Mediterranean region. Since its introduction to the U.S., it has become a significant weed and aggressive invader of sagebrush, pinion-juniper, and other shrub communities, where it can completely out-compete native grasses and shrubs. In this research, remotely sensed data combined with field collected data are used to investigate the distribution of the cheatgrass in Central Utah, to characterize the trend of the NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, and to construct a spatially explicit population-based model to simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of the cheatgrass. This research proposes a method for mapping the canopy closure of invasive species using remotely sensed data acquired at different dates. Different invasive species have their own distinguished phenologies and the satellite images in different dates could be used to capture the phenology. The results of cheatgrass abundance prediction have a good fit with the field data for both linear regression and regression tree models, although the regression tree model has better performance than the linear regression model. To characterize the trend of NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, a novel smoothing algorithm named RMMEH is presented in this research to overcome some drawbacks of many other algorithms. By comparing the performance of RMMEH in smoothing a 16-day composite of the MODIS NDVI time-series with that of two other methods, which are the 4253EH, twice and the MVI, we have found that RMMEH not only keeps the original valid NDVI points, but also effectively removes the spurious spikes. The reconstructed NDVI time-series of different land covers are of higher quality and have smoother temporal trend. To simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass, a spatially explicit population-based model is built applying remotely sensed data. The comparison between the model output and the ground truth of cheatgrass closure demonstrates that the model could successfully simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass in a simple cheatgrass-dominant environment. The simulation of the functional response of different prescribed fire rates also shows that this model is helpful to answer management questions like, "What are the effects of prescribed fire to invasive species?" It demonstrates that a medium fire rate of 10% can successfully prevent cheatgrass invasion.

High Resolution Wind Direction and Speed Information for Support of Fire Operations

Treesearch

B.W. Butler; J.M. Forthofer; M.A. Finney; L.S. Bradshaw; R. Stratton

2006-01-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) technology has been used to model wind speed and direction in mountainous terrain at a relatively high resolution compared to other readily available technologies. The process termed “gridded wind” is not a forecast, but rather represents a method for calculating the influence of terrain on general wind flows. Gridded wind simulations...

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Frid, Leonardo; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.

Dynamics of an Anthropogenic Fire Regime

Treesearch

R. P. Guyette; R. M. Muzika; D. C. Dey

2002-01-01

Human interaction with fire and vegetation occurs at many levels of human population density and cultural development, from subsistence cultures to highly technological societies. The dynamics of these interactions with respect to wildland fire are often difficult to understand and identify at short temporal scales. Dendrochronological fire histories from the Missouri...

Dynamics of an anthropogenic fire regime

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; R. M. Muzika; Daniel C. Dey

2002-01-01

Human interaction with fire and vegetation occurs at many levels of human population density and cultural development, from subsistence cultures to highly technological societies. The dynamics of these interactions with respect to wildland fire are often difficult to understand and identify at short temporal scales. Dendrochronological fire histories from the Missouri...

Comparing effects of climate warming, fire, and timber harvesting on a boreal forest landscape in northeastern China.

PubMed

Li, Xiaona; He, Hong S; Wu, Zhiwei; Liang, Yu; Schneiderman, Jeffrey E

2013-01-01

Forest management under a changing climate requires assessing the effects of climate warming and disturbance on the composition, age structure, and spatial patterns of tree species. We investigated these effects on a boreal forest in northeastern China using a factorial experimental design and simulation modeling. We used a spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS) to evaluate the effects of three independent variables: climate (current and expected future), fire regime (current and increased fire), and timber harvesting (no harvest and legal harvest). Simulations indicate that this forested landscape would be significantly impacted under a changing climate. Climate warming would significantly increase the abundance of most trees, especially broadleaf species (aspen, poplar, and willow). However, climate warming would have less impact on the abundance of conifers, diversity of forest age structure, and variation in spatial landscape structure than burning and harvesting. Burning was the predominant influence in the abundance of conifers except larch and the abundance of trees in mid-stage. Harvesting impacts were greatest for the abundance of larch and birch, and the abundance of trees during establishment stage (1-40 years), early stage (41-80 years) and old- growth stage (>180 years). Disturbance by timber harvesting and burning may significantly alter forest ecosystem dynamics by increasing forest fragmentation and decreasing forest diversity. Results from the simulations provide insight into the long term management of this boreal forest.

Predicting streamflow response to fire-induced landcover change: implications of parameter uncertainty in the MIKE SHE model.

PubMed

McMichael, Christine E; Hope, Allen S

2007-08-01

Fire is a primary agent of landcover transformation in California semi-arid shrubland watersheds, however few studies have examined the impacts of fire and post-fire succession on streamflow dynamics in these basins. While it may seem intuitive that larger fires will have a greater impact on streamflow response than smaller fires in these watersheds, the nature of these relationships has not been determined. The effects of fire size on seasonal and annual streamflow responses were investigated for a medium-sized basin in central California using a modified version of the MIKE SHE model which had been previously calibrated and tested for this watershed using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. Model simulations were made for two contrasting periods, wet and dry, in order to assess whether fire size effects varied with weather regime. Results indicated that seasonal and annual streamflow response increased nearly linearly with fire size in a given year under both regimes. Annual flow response was generally higher in wetter years for both weather regimes, however a clear trend was confounded by the effect of stand age. These results expand our understanding of the effects of fire size on hydrologic response in chaparral watersheds, but it is important to note that the majority of model predictions were largely indistinguishable from the predictive uncertainty associated with the calibrated model - a key finding that highlights the importance of analyzing hydrologic predictions for altered landcover conditions in the context of model uncertainty. Future work is needed to examine how alternative decisions (e.g., different likelihood measures) may influence GLUE-based MIKE SHE streamflow predictions following different size fires, and how the effect of fire size on streamflow varies with other factors such as fire location.

A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times

Treesearch

Eric L. Smith

1987-01-01

Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...

Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Eva Karau

2010-01-01

Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology...

CFES--California Fire Economics Simulator: A Computerized System for Wildland Fire Protection Planning

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Fried; J. Keith Gilless; Robert E. Martin

1987-01-01

The University of California's Department of Forestry and Resource Management, under contract with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, has developed and released the first version of the California Fire Economics Simulator (CFES). The current release is adapted from the Initial Action Assessment component of the USFS's National Fire...

Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

2017-10-01

We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

Fast global oscillations in networks of integrate-and-fire neurons with low firing rates.

PubMed

Brunel, N; Hakim, V

1999-10-01

We study analytically the dynamics of a network of sparsely connected inhibitory integrate-and-fire neurons in a regime where individual neurons emit spikes irregularly and at a low rate. In the limit when the number of neurons --> infinity, the network exhibits a sharp transition between a stationary and an oscillatory global activity regime where neurons are weakly synchronized. The activity becomes oscillatory when the inhibitory feedback is strong enough. The period of the global oscillation is found to be mainly controlled by synaptic times but depends also on the characteristics of the external input. In large but finite networks, the analysis shows that global oscillations of finite coherence time generically exist both above and below the critical inhibition threshold. Their characteristics are determined as functions of systems parameters in these two different regions. The results are found to be in good agreement with numerical simulations.

Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

2017-10-01

We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high-severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests

Treesearch

Daniel J. Krofcheck; Matthew D. Hurteau; Robert M. Scheller; E. Louise Loudermilk

2017-01-01

In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels...

Multistability, local pattern formation, and global collective firing in a small-world network of nonleaky integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Rothkegel, Alexander; Lehnertz, Klaus

2009-03-01

We investigate numerically the collective dynamical behavior of pulse-coupled nonleaky integrate-and-fire neurons that are arranged on a two-dimensional small-world network. To ensure ongoing activity, we impose a probability for spontaneous firing for each neuron. We study network dynamics evolving from different sets of initial conditions in dependence on coupling strength and rewiring probability. Besides a homogeneous equilibrium state for low coupling strength, we observe different local patterns including cyclic waves, spiral waves, and turbulentlike patterns, which-depending on network parameters-interfere with the global collective firing of the neurons. We attribute the various network dynamics to distinct regimes in the parameter space. For the same network parameters different network dynamics can be observed depending on the set of initial conditions only. Such a multistable behavior and the interplay between local pattern formation and global collective firing may be attributable to the spatiotemporal dynamics of biological networks.

Simulating coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics following mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the western United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edburg, Steven L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Lawrence, David M.

2011-01-01

Insect outbreaks are major ecosystem disturbances, affecting a similar area as forest fires annually across North America. Tree mortality caused by epidemics of bark beetles alters carbon cycling in the first several years following the disturbance by reducing stand-level primary production and increasing decomposition rates. The few studies of biogeochemical cycling following outbreaks have shown a range of impacts from small responses of net carbon fluxes in the first several years after a severe outbreak to large forest areas that are sources of carbon to the atmosphere for decades. To gain more understanding about causes of this range of responses,more » we used an ecosystem model to assess impacts of different bark beetle outbreak conditions on coupled carbon and nitrogen cycling. We modified the Community Land Model with prognostic carbon and nitrogen to include prescribed bark beetle outbreaks. We then compared control simulations (without a bark beetle outbreak) to simulations with various mortality severity, durations of outbreak, and snagfall dynamics to quantify the range of carbon flux responses and recovery rates of net ecosystem exchange to a range of realistic outbreak conditions. Prescribed mortality by beetles reduced leaf area and thus productivity. Gross primary productivity decreased by as much as 80% for a severe outbreak (95% mortality) and by 10% for less severe outbreaks (25% mortality). Soil mineral nitrogen dynamics (immobilization and plant uptake) were important in governing post-outbreak productivity, and were strongly modulated by carbon inputs to the soil from killed trees. Initial increases in heterotrophic respiration caused by a pulse of labile carbon from roots were followed by a slight reduction (from pre-snagfall reduced inputs), then a secondary increase (from inputs due to snagfall). Secondary increases in heterotrophic respiration were largest for simulated windthrow of snags after a prescribed snagfall delay period. Net ecosystem productivity recovered within 40 years for all simulations, with the largest increases in the first 10 years. Our simulations illustrate that, given the large variability in bark beetle outbreak conditions, a wide range of responses in carbon and nitrogen dynamics can occur. The fraction of trees killed, timing of snagfall, snagfall rate, and management decisions as to whether or not to remove snags for harvesting or for fire prevention will have a major impact on post-outbreak carbon fluxes up to 100 years following an outbreak.« less

Applying Open Source Game Engine for Building Visual Simulation Training System of Fire Fighting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Diping; Jin, Xuesheng; Zhang, Jin; Han, Dong

There's a growing need for fire departments to adopt a safe and fair method of training to ensure that the firefighting commander is in a position to manage a fire incident. Visual simulation training systems, with their ability to replicate and interact with virtual fire scenarios through the use of computer graphics or VR, become an effective and efficient method for fire ground education. This paper describes the system architecture and functions of a visual simulated training system of fire fighting on oil storage, which adopting Delat3D, a open source game and simulation engine, to provide realistic 3D views. It presents that using open source technology provides not only the commercial-level 3D effects but also a great reduction of cost.

Wetland fire remote sensing research--The Greater Everglades example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, John W.

2012-01-01

Fire is a major factor in the Everglades ecosystem. For thousands of years, lightning-strike fires from summer thunderstorms have helped create and maintain a dynamic landscape suited both to withstand fire and recover quickly in the wake of frequent fires. Today, managers in the Everglades National Park are implementing controlled burns to promote healthy, sustainable vegetation patterns and ecosystem functions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using remote sensing to improve fire-management databases in the Everglades, gain insights into post-fire land-cover dynamics, and develop spatially and temporally explicit fire-scar data for habitat and hydrologic modeling.

Simulation analysis of an integrated model for dynamic cellular manufacturing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Chunfeng; Luan, Shichao; Kong, Jili

2017-05-01

Application of dynamic cellular manufacturing system (DCMS) is a well-known strategy to improve manufacturing efficiency in the production environment with high variety and low volume of production. Often, neither the trade-off of inter and intra-cell material movements nor the trade-off of hiring and firing of operators are examined in details. This paper presents simulation results of an integrated mixed-integer model including sensitivity analysis for several numerical examples. The comprehensive model includes cell formation, inter and intracellular materials handling, inventory and backorder holding, operator assignment (including resource adjustment) and flexible production routing. The model considers multi-production planning with flexible resources (machines and operators) where each period has different demands. The results verify the validity and sensitivity of the proposed model using a genetic algorithm.

Madrean pine-oak forest in Arizona: past dynamics, present problems

Treesearch

Andrew M. Barton

2008-01-01

This paper synthesizes research on presettlement dynamics and modern disruption of Madrean pine-oak forests in Arizona. In response to surface fires characteristic of presettlement times, pines were fire resistant, exhibiting high top-survival, whereas oaks were fire resilient, exhibiting lower top-survival but pronounced resprouting. Thus, low-severity fire favors...

Simulation of Combustion Systems with Realistic g-jitter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mell, William E.; McGrattan, Kevin B.; Baum, Howard R.

2003-01-01

In this project a transient, fully three-dimensional computer simulation code was developed to simulate the effects of realistic g-jitter on a number of combustion systems. The simulation code is capable of simulating flame spread on a solid and nonpremixed or premixed gaseous combustion in nonturbulent flow with simple combustion models. Simple combustion models were used to preserve computational efficiency since this is meant to be an engineering code. Also, the use of sophisticated turbulence models was not pursued (a simple Smagorinsky type model can be implemented if deemed appropriate) because if flow velocities are large enough for turbulence to develop in a reduced gravity combustion scenario it is unlikely that g-jitter disturbances (in NASA's reduced gravity facilities) will play an important role in the flame dynamics. Acceleration disturbances of realistic orientation, magnitude, and time dependence can be easily included in the simulation. The simulation algorithm was based on techniques used in an existing large eddy simulation code which has successfully simulated fire dynamics in complex domains. A series of simulations with measured and predicted acceleration disturbances on the International Space Station (ISS) are presented. The results of this series of simulations suggested a passive isolation system and appropriate scheduling of crew activity would provide a sufficiently "quiet" acceleration environment for spherical diffusion flames.

Are post-fire silvicultural treatments a useful tool to fight the climate change threat in terms of plant diversity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedo de Santiago, Javier; Esteban Lucasr Borja, Manuel; de las Heras, Jorge

2016-04-01

Adaptative forest management demands a huge scientific knowledge about post-fire vegetation dynamics, taking into account the current context of global change. We hypothesized that management practices should be carry out taking into account the climate change effect, to obtain better results in the biodiversity maintenance across time. All of this with respect to diversity and species composition of the post-fire naturally regenerated Aleppo pine forests understory. The study was carried out in two post-fire naturally regenerated Aleppo pine forests in the Southeastern of the Iberian Peninsula, under contrasting climatic conditions: Yeste (Albacete) shows a dry climate and Calasparra (Murcia) shows a semiarid climate. Thinning as post-fire silvicultural treatment was carried out five years after the wildfire event, in the year 1999. An experiment of artificial drought was designed to evacuate 15% of the natural rainfall in both sites, Yeste and Calasparra, to simulate climate change. Taking into account all the variables (site, silvicultural treatment and artificial drought), alpha diversity indices including species richness, Shannon and Simpson diversity indices, and plant cover, were analyzed as a measure of vegetation abundance. The results showed that plant species were affected by thinning, whereas induced drought affected total cover and species, with lower values at Yeste. Significant site variation was also observed in soil properties, species richness and total plant cover, conversely to the plant species diversity indices. We conclude that the plant community shows different responses to a simulated environment of climate change depending on the experimental site.

Mapping Fuel Loads and Dynamics in Rangelands Using Multi-Sensor Data in the Great Basin, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z.; Shi, H.; Vogelmann, J. E.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Reeves, M. C.

2016-12-01

Fuel conditions in rangelands are influenced by disturbances such as wildfires, and is also strongly controlled by weather and climate. These factors impact the availability of fuel loads, which is the key component to stimulate burned area and severity. In this paper, we developed an approach for mapping live fuel loads (biomass density) and their dynamics using field collection, Landsat 8, and MODIS data sets at a spatial resolution of 30 m from the growing season. Using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) modelling process, we generated monthly shrub and grassland greenness levels for 2015. The spatial resolution of Landsat and the temporal resolution of MODIS complimented each other to allow us to produce monthly products. Understanding the dynamics of these greenness patterns helps the fire management community to recognize areas that have high likelihood of burning in the future, thus enabling them to anticipate and plan accordingly. We obtained field biomass information from selected shrub and grass sites located throughout the Great Basin. This information was used to calibrate fire models and generate remotely-sensed data sets. We then used Landsat 8 NDVI dates representing the phenological profile, regression tree models, and product validation. The calculated fuel loads were further examined and validated using high resolution images (World View 2/3), field measurements, and Google Earth. Once we have the requisite image data converted to biomass, we anticipate fire conditions and behavior using various models developed by the fire community. One key element is to use information from this study to improve and inform the Rangeland Vegetation Simulator. Finally, we analyzed the correlations of fire occurrence (frequency) and burn severity with live fuel loads and climate conditions. Our results show modeled fuel loads and their dynamics in rangelands capture the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of non-forest live fuel types and the variations in both wildfire disturbances and climate/weather conditions. This suggests the developed approach to map fuel loads is robust and can improve the existing LANDFIRE fuel data in rangelands. It can also be used to monitor the changes in fuel conditions in response to management activities and climate change.

The role of fire-return interval and season of burn in snag dynamics in a south Florida slash pine forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lloyd, John D.; Slater, Gary L.; Snyder, James R.

2012-01-01

Standing dead trees, or snags, are an important habitat element for many animal species. In many ecosystems, fire is a primary driver of snag population dynamics because it can both create and consume snags. The objective of this study was to examine how variation in two key components of the fire regime—fire-return interval and season of burn—affected population dynamics of snags. Using a factorial design, we exposed 1 ha plots, located within larger burn units in a south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Little and Dorman) forest, to prescribed fire applied at two intervals (approximately 3-year intervals vs. approximately 6-year intervals) and during two seasons (wet season vs. dry season) over a 12- to 13-year period. We found no consistent effect of fire season or frequency on the density of lightly to moderately decayed or heavily decayed snags, suggesting that variation in these elements of the fire regime at the scale we considered is relatively unimportant in the dynamics of snag populations. However, our confidence in these findings is limited by small sample sizes, potentially confounding effects of unmeasured variation in fire behavior and effects (e.g., intensity, severity, synergy with drought cycles) and wide variation in responses within a treatment level. The generalizing of our findings is also limited by the narrow range of treatment levels considered. Future experiments incorporating a wider range of fire regimes and directly quantifying fire intensity would prove useful in identifying more clearly the role of fire in shaping the dynamics of snag populations.

Mine fire experiments and simulation with MFIRE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laage, L.W.; Yang, Hang

1995-12-31

A major concern of mine fires is the heat generated ventilation disturbances which can move products of combustion (POC) through unexpected passageways. Fire emergency planning requires simulation of the interaction of the fire and ventilation system to predict the state of the ventilation system and the subsequent distribution of temperatures and POC. Several computer models were developed by the U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM) to perform this simulation. The most recent, MFIRE, simulates a mine`s ventilation system and its response to altered ventilation parameters such as the development of new mine workings or changes in ventilation control structures, external influencemore » such as varying outside temperatures, and internal influences such as fires. Extensive output allows quantitative analysis of the effects of the proposed alteration to die ventilation system. This paper describes recent USBM research to validate MFIRE`s calculation of temperature distribution in an airway due to a mine fire, as temperatures are the most significant source of ventilation disturbances. Fire tests were conducted at the Waldo Mine near Magdalena, NM. From these experiments, temperature profiles were developed as functions of time and distance from the fire and compared with simulations from MFIRE.« less

Immersive virtual reality-based training improves response in a simulated operating room fire scenario.

PubMed

Sankaranarayanan, Ganesh; Wooley, Lizzy; Hogg, Deborah; Dorozhkin, Denis; Olasky, Jaisa; Chauhan, Sanket; Fleshman, James W; De, Suvranu; Scott, Daniel; Jones, Daniel B

2018-01-25

SAGES FUSE curriculum provides didactic knowledge on OR fire prevention. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of an immersive virtual reality (VR)-based OR fire training simulation system in combination with FUSE didactics. The study compared a control with a simulation group. After a pre-test questionnaire that assessed the baseline knowledge, both groups were given didactic material that consists of a 10-min presentation and reading materials about precautions and stopping an OR fire from the FUSE manual. The simulation group practiced on the OR fire simulation for one session that consisted of five trials within a week from the pre-test. One week later, both groups were reassessed using a questionnaire. A week after the post-test both groups also participated in a simulated OR fire scenario while their performance was videotaped for assessment. A total of 20 subjects (ten per group) participated in this IRB approved study. Median test scores for the control group increased from 5.5 to 9.00 (p = 0.011) and for the simulation group it increased from 5.0 to 8.5 (p = 0.005). Both groups started at the same baseline (pre-test, p = 0.529) and reached similar level in cognitive knowledge (post-test, p = 0.853). However, when tested in the mock OR fire scenario, 70% of the simulation group subjects were able to perform the correct sequence of steps in extinguishing the simulated fire whereas only 20% subjects in the control group were able to do so (p = 0.003). The simulation group was better than control group in correctly identifying the oxidizer (p = 0.03) and ignition source (p = 0.014). Interactive VR-based hands-on training was found to be a relatively inexpensive and effective mode for teaching OR fire prevention and management scenarios.

Orbiter/payload proximity operations SES Postsim report. Lateral approach and other techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olszewski, O.

1978-01-01

Various approach and stationkeeping simulations (proximity operations) were conducted in the Shuttle engineering simulator (SES). This simulator is the first to dynamically include the Orbiter reaction control system (RCS) plume effects on a payload being recovered after rendezvous operations. A procedure for braking, using the simultaneous firing of both jets, was evaluated and found very useful for proximity operations. However this procedure is very inefficient in the RCS usage and requires modifications to the digital autopilot (DAP) software. A new final approach, the lateral approach technique (LAT), or the momentum vector proximity approach, was also evaluated in the simulations. The LAT, which included a tailfirst approach for braking, was evaluated successfully with both inertial and gravity stabilized payloads.

Rim Fire and its Radiative impact Simulated in CESM/CARMA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, P.; Toon, O. B.; Bardeen, C.; Bucholtz, A.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Saide, P. E.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Ziemba, L. D.; Jimenez, J. L.; Schwarz, J. P.; Wagner, N. L.; Lack, D. A.; Mills, M. J.; Reid, J. S.

2015-12-01

The Rim Fire of 2013, the third largest area burned by fire recorded in California history, is simulated by CESM1/CARMA. Modeled aerosol mass, number, effective radius, and extinction coefficient are within variability of data obtained from multiple airborne measurements and satellite measurements. Simulations suggest Rim Fire smoke may block 4-6% of sunlight reaching the surface, with a cooling efficiency around 120-150 W m-2 per unit aerosol optical depth. This study shows that exceptional events like the 2013 Rim Fire can be simulated by a climate model with one-degree resolution, though that resolution is still not sufficient to resolve the smoke peak near the source region.

A Complex Network Theory Approach for the Spatial Distribution of Fire Breaks in Heterogeneous Forest Landscapes for the Control of Wildland Fires

PubMed Central

Russo, Lucia; Russo, Paola; Siettos, Constantinos I.

2016-01-01

Based on complex network theory, we propose a computational methodology which addresses the spatial distribution of fuel breaks for the inhibition of the spread of wildland fires on heterogeneous landscapes. This is a two-level approach where the dynamics of fire spread are modeled as a random Markov field process on a directed network whose edge weights are determined by a Cellular Automata model that integrates detailed GIS, landscape and meteorological data. Within this framework, the spatial distribution of fuel breaks is reduced to the problem of finding network nodes (small land patches) which favour fire propagation. Here, this is accomplished by exploiting network centrality statistics. We illustrate the proposed approach through (a) an artificial forest of randomly distributed density of vegetation, and (b) a real-world case concerning the island of Rhodes in Greece whose major part of its forest was burned in 2008. Simulation results show that the proposed methodology outperforms the benchmark/conventional policy of fuel reduction as this can be realized by selective harvesting and/or prescribed burning based on the density and flammability of vegetation. Interestingly, our approach reveals that patches with sparse density of vegetation may act as hubs for the spread of the fire. PMID:27780249

A Complex Network Theory Approach for the Spatial Distribution of Fire Breaks in Heterogeneous Forest Landscapes for the Control of Wildland Fires.

PubMed

Russo, Lucia; Russo, Paola; Siettos, Constantinos I

2016-01-01

Based on complex network theory, we propose a computational methodology which addresses the spatial distribution of fuel breaks for the inhibition of the spread of wildland fires on heterogeneous landscapes. This is a two-level approach where the dynamics of fire spread are modeled as a random Markov field process on a directed network whose edge weights are determined by a Cellular Automata model that integrates detailed GIS, landscape and meteorological data. Within this framework, the spatial distribution of fuel breaks is reduced to the problem of finding network nodes (small land patches) which favour fire propagation. Here, this is accomplished by exploiting network centrality statistics. We illustrate the proposed approach through (a) an artificial forest of randomly distributed density of vegetation, and (b) a real-world case concerning the island of Rhodes in Greece whose major part of its forest was burned in 2008. Simulation results show that the proposed methodology outperforms the benchmark/conventional policy of fuel reduction as this can be realized by selective harvesting and/or prescribed burning based on the density and flammability of vegetation. Interestingly, our approach reveals that patches with sparse density of vegetation may act as hubs for the spread of the fire.

Computer animation challenges for computational fluid dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vines, Mauricio; Lee, Won-Sook; Mavriplis, Catherine

2012-07-01

Computer animation requirements differ from those of traditional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) investigations in that visual plausibility and rapid frame update rates trump physical accuracy. We present an overview of the main techniques for fluid simulation in computer animation, starting with Eulerian grid approaches, the Lattice Boltzmann method, Fourier transform techniques and Lagrangian particle introduction. Adaptive grid methods, precomputation of results for model reduction, parallelisation and computation on graphical processing units (GPUs) are reviewed in the context of accelerating simulation computations for animation. A survey of current specific approaches for the application of these techniques to the simulation of smoke, fire, water, bubbles, mixing, phase change and solid-fluid coupling is also included. Adding plausibility to results through particle introduction, turbulence detail and concentration on regions of interest by level set techniques has elevated the degree of accuracy and realism of recent animations. Basic approaches are described here. Techniques to control the simulation to produce a desired visual effect are also discussed. Finally, some references to rendering techniques and haptic applications are mentioned to provide the reader with a complete picture of the challenges of simulating fluids in computer animation.

Interplay of intrinsic and synaptic conductances in the generation of high-frequency oscillations in interneuronal networks with irregular spiking.

PubMed

Baroni, Fabiano; Burkitt, Anthony N; Grayden, David B

2014-05-01

High-frequency oscillations (above 30 Hz) have been observed in sensory and higher-order brain areas, and are believed to constitute a general hallmark of functional neuronal activation. Fast inhibition in interneuronal networks has been suggested as a general mechanism for the generation of high-frequency oscillations. Certain classes of interneurons exhibit subthreshold oscillations, but the effect of this intrinsic neuronal property on the population rhythm is not completely understood. We study the influence of intrinsic damped subthreshold oscillations in the emergence of collective high-frequency oscillations, and elucidate the dynamical mechanisms that underlie this phenomenon. We simulate neuronal networks composed of either Integrate-and-Fire (IF) or Generalized Integrate-and-Fire (GIF) neurons. The IF model displays purely passive subthreshold dynamics, while the GIF model exhibits subthreshold damped oscillations. Individual neurons receive inhibitory synaptic currents mediated by spiking activity in their neighbors as well as noisy synaptic bombardment, and fire irregularly at a lower rate than population frequency. We identify three factors that affect the influence of single-neuron properties on synchronization mediated by inhibition: i) the firing rate response to the noisy background input, ii) the membrane potential distribution, and iii) the shape of Inhibitory Post-Synaptic Potentials (IPSPs). For hyperpolarizing inhibition, the GIF IPSP profile (factor iii)) exhibits post-inhibitory rebound, which induces a coherent spike-mediated depolarization across cells that greatly facilitates synchronous oscillations. This effect dominates the network dynamics, hence GIF networks display stronger oscillations than IF networks. However, the restorative current in the GIF neuron lowers firing rates and narrows the membrane potential distribution (factors i) and ii), respectively), which tend to decrease synchrony. If inhibition is shunting instead of hyperpolarizing, post-inhibitory rebound is not elicited and factors i) and ii) dominate, yielding lower synchrony in GIF networks than in IF networks.

Interplay of Intrinsic and Synaptic Conductances in the Generation of High-Frequency Oscillations in Interneuronal Networks with Irregular Spiking

PubMed Central

Baroni, Fabiano; Burkitt, Anthony N.; Grayden, David B.

2014-01-01

High-frequency oscillations (above 30 Hz) have been observed in sensory and higher-order brain areas, and are believed to constitute a general hallmark of functional neuronal activation. Fast inhibition in interneuronal networks has been suggested as a general mechanism for the generation of high-frequency oscillations. Certain classes of interneurons exhibit subthreshold oscillations, but the effect of this intrinsic neuronal property on the population rhythm is not completely understood. We study the influence of intrinsic damped subthreshold oscillations in the emergence of collective high-frequency oscillations, and elucidate the dynamical mechanisms that underlie this phenomenon. We simulate neuronal networks composed of either Integrate-and-Fire (IF) or Generalized Integrate-and-Fire (GIF) neurons. The IF model displays purely passive subthreshold dynamics, while the GIF model exhibits subthreshold damped oscillations. Individual neurons receive inhibitory synaptic currents mediated by spiking activity in their neighbors as well as noisy synaptic bombardment, and fire irregularly at a lower rate than population frequency. We identify three factors that affect the influence of single-neuron properties on synchronization mediated by inhibition: i) the firing rate response to the noisy background input, ii) the membrane potential distribution, and iii) the shape of Inhibitory Post-Synaptic Potentials (IPSPs). For hyperpolarizing inhibition, the GIF IPSP profile (factor iii)) exhibits post-inhibitory rebound, which induces a coherent spike-mediated depolarization across cells that greatly facilitates synchronous oscillations. This effect dominates the network dynamics, hence GIF networks display stronger oscillations than IF networks. However, the restorative current in the GIF neuron lowers firing rates and narrows the membrane potential distribution (factors i) and ii), respectively), which tend to decrease synchrony. If inhibition is shunting instead of hyperpolarizing, post-inhibitory rebound is not elicited and factors i) and ii) dominate, yielding lower synchrony in GIF networks than in IF networks. PMID:24784237

Wildfires and post-fire erosion risk in a coastal area under severe anthropic pressure associated with the touristic fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canu, Annalisa; Arca, Bachisio; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Valeriano Pintus, Gian; Ferrara, Roberto; Duce, Pierpaolo

2017-04-01

In the last decades a rapid and intense development of the tourism industry led to an increasing of anthropic pressure on several coastal areas of Sardinia. This fact not only modified the coastal aesthetics, but has also generated an increase of risk for the environment. This phenomenon affected also the ancient structure of the landscape with a negative impact mainly caused by the following factors: land abandonment, wildfire occurrence, post-fire erosion, urbanization. These regional changes can be analyzed in detail by considering the geo-diachronic dynamics. The main objectives of this work were i) to perform a diachronic analysis of land use and land cover dynamics, ii) to analyse the recent dynamics of wildfires, and iii) to predict the soil erosion risk in relation to land use change occurred between the 1950s and the 2000s. The study was realized in a coastal area located in North-East Sardinia where the geo-historical processes were summarized and organized in a geographic information system that has been employed to examine the landscape variations at three different time steps: 1954, 1977 and 2000. In addition, different scenarios of wildfire propagation were simulated by FlamMap in order to estimate the spatial pattern of fire danger factors in the study area. Afterwards, maps of post-fire soil erosion were produced to identify the temporal and spatial variations of the erosion risk. The results show how the changes in land use and the significant and rapid increase of the residential areas affect the risk of both wildfires and post-fire soil erosion. The study reveals the capabilities of this type of approach and can be used by management agencies and policy makers e in sustainable landscape management planning. This approach can be extended to other regions of the Mediterranean basin characterized by complex interactions among landscape and anthropic factors affecting the environmental risk.

Contributions of wildland fire to terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in North America from 1990 to 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Guangsheng; Hayes, Daniel J.; McGuire, A. David

2017-01-01

Burn area and the frequency of extreme fire events have been increasing during recent decades in North America, and this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century. While many aspects of the North American carbon budget have been intensively studied, the net contribution of fire disturbance to the overall net carbon flux at the continental scale remains uncertain. Based on national scale, spatially explicit and long-term fire data, along with the improved model parameterization in a process-based ecosystem model, we simulated the impact of fire disturbance on both direct carbon emissions and net terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance in North America. Fire-caused direct carbon emissions were 106.55 ± 15.98 Tg C/yr during 1990–2012; however, the net ecosystem carbon balance associated with fire was −26.09 ± 5.22 Tg C/yr, indicating that most of the emitted carbon was resequestered by the terrestrial ecosystem. Direct carbon emissions showed an increase in Alaska and Canada during 1990–2012 as compared to prior periods due to more extreme fire events, resulting in a large carbon source from these two regions. Among biomes, the largest carbon source was found to be from the boreal forest, primarily due to large reductions in soil organic matter during, and with slower recovery after, fire events. The interactions between fire and environmental factors reduced the fire-caused ecosystem carbon source. Fire disturbance only caused a weak carbon source as compared to the best estimate terrestrial carbon sink in North America owing to the long-term legacy effects of historical burn area coupled with fast ecosystem recovery during 1990–2012.

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Dynamics of Multistable States during Ongoing and Evoked Cortical Activity

PubMed Central

Mazzucato, Luca

2015-01-01

Single-trial analyses of ensemble activity in alert animals demonstrate that cortical circuits dynamics evolve through temporal sequences of metastable states. Metastability has been studied for its potential role in sensory coding, memory, and decision-making. Yet, very little is known about the network mechanisms responsible for its genesis. It is often assumed that the onset of state sequences is triggered by an external stimulus. Here we show that state sequences can be observed also in the absence of overt sensory stimulation. Analysis of multielectrode recordings from the gustatory cortex of alert rats revealed ongoing sequences of states, where single neurons spontaneously attain several firing rates across different states. This single-neuron multistability represents a challenge to existing spiking network models, where typically each neuron is at most bistable. We present a recurrent spiking network model that accounts for both the spontaneous generation of state sequences and the multistability in single-neuron firing rates. Each state results from the activation of neural clusters with potentiated intracluster connections, with the firing rate in each cluster depending on the number of active clusters. Simulations show that the model's ensemble activity hops among the different states, reproducing the ongoing dynamics observed in the data. When probed with external stimuli, the model predicts the quenching of single-neuron multistability into bistability and the reduction of trial-by-trial variability. Both predictions were confirmed in the data. Together, these results provide a theoretical framework that captures both ongoing and evoked network dynamics in a single mechanistic model. PMID:26019337

Future Wildfire and Managed Fire Interactions in the Lake Tahoe Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheller, R.; Kretchun, A.

2017-12-01

Managing large forested landscape in the context of a changing climate and altered disturbance regimes presents new challenges and require integrated assessments of forest disturbance, management, succession, and the carbon cycle. Successful management under these circumstances will require information about trade-offs among multiple objectives and opportunities for spatially optimized landscape-scale management. Improved information about the effects of climate on forest communities, disturbance feedbacks, and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies enables actionable options for landscape managers. We evaluated the effects of fire suppression, wildfires, and forest fuel (thinning) treatments on the long-term carbon storage potential for Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) forests under various climate futures. We simulated management scenarios that encompass fuel treatments across the larger landscape, beyond the Wildland Urban Interface. We improved upon current fire modeling under climate change via an integrated fire modeling module that, a) explicitly captures the influence of climate, fuels, topography, active fire management (e.g., fire suppression), and fuel treatments, and b) can be parameterized from available data, e.g., remote sensing, field reporting, fire databases, expert opinion. These improvements increase geographic flexibility and decrease reliance on broad historical fire regime statistics - imperfect targets for a no analog future and require minimal parameterization and calibration. We assessed the interactions among fuel treatments, prescribe fire, fire suppression, and stochastically recurring wildfires. Predicted changes in climate and ignition patterns in response to future climatic conditions, vegetation dynamics, and fuel treatments indicate larger potential long-term effects on C emissions, forest structure, and forest composition than prior studies.

Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure

PubMed Central

Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G.; Gauthier, Sylvie

2016-01-01

It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity. PMID:26919456

Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure.

PubMed

Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G; Gauthier, Sylvie

2016-01-01

It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.

Drought, Fire and Insects in Western US Forests: Observations to Improve Regional Land System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.; Yang, Z.; Berner, L. T.; Hicke, J. A.; Buotte, P.; Hudiburg, T. W.

2015-12-01

Drought, fire and insects are major disturbances in the western US, and conditions are expected to get warmer and drier in the future. We combine multi-scale observations and modeling with CLM4.5 to examine the effects of these disturbances on forests in the western US. We modified the Community Land Model, CLM4.5, to improve simulated drought-related mortality in forests, and prediction of insect outbreaks under future climate conditions. We examined differences in plant traits that represent species variation in sensitivity to drought, and redefined plant groupings in PFTs. Plant traits, including sapwood area: leaf area ratio and stemwood density were strongly correlated with water availability during the ecohydrologic year. Our database of co-located observations of traits for 30 tree species was used to produce parameterization of the model by species groupings according to similar traits. Burn area predicted by the new fire model in CLM4.5 compares well with recent years of GFED data, but has a positive bias compared with Landsat-based MTBS. Biomass mortality over recent decades increased, and was captured well by the model in general, but missed mortality trends of some species. Comparisons with AmeriFlux data showed that the model with dynamic tree mortality only (no species trait improvements) overestimated GPP in dry years compared with flux data at semi-arid sites, and underestimated GPP at more mesic sites that experience dry summers. Simulations with both dynamic tree mortality and species trait parameters improved estimates of GPP by 17-22%; differences between predicted and observed NEE were larger. Future projections show higher productivity from increased atmospheric CO2 and warming that somewhat offsets drought and fire effects over the next few decades. Challenges include representation of hydraulic failure in models, and availability of species trait and carbon/water process data in disturbance- and drought-impacted regions.

Forest fuel reduction alters fire severity and long-term carbon storage in three Pacific Northwest ecosystems.

PubMed

Mitchell, Stephen R; Harmon, Mark E; O'Connell, Kari E B

2009-04-01

Two forest management objectives being debated in the context of federally managed landscapes in the U.S. Pacific Northwest involve a perceived trade-off between fire restoration and carbon sequestration. The former strategy would reduce fuel (and therefore C) that has accumulated through a century of fire suppression and exclusion which has led to extreme fire risk in some areas. The latter strategy would manage forests for enhanced C sequestration as a method of reducing atmospheric CO2 and associated threats from global climate change. We explored the trade-off between these two strategies by employing a forest ecosystem simulation model, STANDCARB, to examine the effects of fuel reduction on fire severity and the resulting long-term C dynamics among three Pacific Northwest ecosystems: the east Cascades ponderosa pine forests, the west Cascades western hemlock-Douglas-fir forests, and the Coast Range western hemlock-Sitka spruce forests. Our simulations indicate that fuel reduction treatments in these ecosystems consistently reduced fire severity. However, reducing the fraction by which C is lost in a wildfire requires the removal of a much greater amount of C, since most of the C stored in forest biomass (stem wood, branches, coarse woody debris) remains unconsumed even by high-severity wildfires. For this reason, all of the fuel reduction treatments simulated for the west Cascades and Coast Range ecosystems as well as most of the treatments simulated for the east Cascades resulted in a reduced mean stand C storage. One suggested method of compensating for such losses in C storage is to utilize C harvested in fuel reduction treatments as biofuels. Our analysis indicates that this will not be an effective strategy in the west Cascades and Coast Range over the next 100 years. We suggest that forest management plans aimed solely at ameliorating increases in atmospheric CO2 should forgo fuel reduction treatments in these ecosystems, with the possible exception of some east Cascades ponderosa pine stands with uncharacteristic levels of understory fuel accumulation. Balancing a demand for maximal landscape C storage with the demand for reduced wildfire severity will likely require treatments to be applied strategically throughout the landscape rather than indiscriminately treating all stands.

Wildfire and drought dynamics destabilize carbon stores of fire-suppressed forests

Treesearch

J. Mason Earles; Malcolm P. North; Matthew D. Hurteau

2014-01-01

Widespread fire suppression and thinning have altered the structure and composition of many forests in the western United States, making them more susceptible to the synergy of large-scale drought and fire events. We examine how these changes affect carbon storage and stability compared to historic fire-adapted conditions. We modeled carbon dynamics under possible...

Adaptation and inhibition underlie responses to time-varying interaural phase cues in a model of inferior colliculus neurons.

PubMed

Borisyuk, Alla; Semple, Malcolm N; Rinzel, John

2002-10-01

A mathematical model was developed for exploring the sensitivity of low-frequency inferior colliculus (IC) neurons to interaural phase disparity (IPD). The formulation involves a firing-rate-type model that does not include spikes per se. The model IC neuron receives IPD-tuned excitatory and inhibitory inputs (viewed as the output of a collection of cells in the medial superior olive). The model cell possesses cellular properties of firing rate adaptation and postinhibitory rebound (PIR). The descriptions of these mechanisms are biophysically reasonable, but only semi-quantitative. We seek to explain within a minimal model the experimentally observed mismatch between responses to IPD stimuli delivered dynamically and those delivered statically (McAlpine et al. 2000; Spitzer and Semple 1993). The model reproduces many features of the responses to static IPD presentations, binaural beat, and partial range sweep stimuli. These features include differences in responses to a stimulus presented in static or dynamic context: sharper tuning and phase shifts in response to binaural beats, and hysteresis and "rise-from-nowhere" in response to partial range sweeps. Our results suggest that dynamic response features are due to the structure of inputs and the presence of firing rate adaptation and PIR mechanism in IC cells, but do not depend on a specific biophysical mechanism. We demonstrate how the model's various components contribute to shaping the observed phenomena. For example, adaptation, PIR, and transmission delay shape phase advances and delays in responses to binaural beats, adaptation and PIR shape hysteresis in different ranges of IPD, and tuned inhibition underlies asymmetry in dynamic tuning properties. We also suggest experiments to test our modeling predictions: in vitro simulation of the binaural beat (phase advance at low beat frequencies, its dependence on firing rate), in vivo partial range sweep experiments (dependence of the hysteresis curve on parameters), and inhibition blocking experiments (to study inhibitory tuning properties by observation of phase shifts).

Analytical approximations of the firing rate of an adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neuron in the presence of synaptic noise.

PubMed

Hertäg, Loreen; Durstewitz, Daniel; Brunel, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Computational models offer a unique tool for understanding the network-dynamical mechanisms which mediate between physiological and biophysical properties, and behavioral function. A traditional challenge in computational neuroscience is, however, that simple neuronal models which can be studied analytically fail to reproduce the diversity of electrophysiological behaviors seen in real neurons, while detailed neuronal models which do reproduce such diversity are intractable analytically and computationally expensive. A number of intermediate models have been proposed whose aim is to capture the diversity of firing behaviors and spike times of real neurons while entailing the simplest possible mathematical description. One such model is the exponential integrate-and-fire neuron with spike rate adaptation (aEIF) which consists of two differential equations for the membrane potential (V) and an adaptation current (w). Despite its simplicity, it can reproduce a wide variety of physiologically observed spiking patterns, can be fit to physiological recordings quantitatively, and, once done so, is able to predict spike times on traces not used for model fitting. Here we compute the steady-state firing rate of aEIF in the presence of Gaussian synaptic noise, using two approaches. The first approach is based on the 2-dimensional Fokker-Planck equation that describes the (V,w)-probability distribution, which is solved using an expansion in the ratio between the time constants of the two variables. The second is based on the firing rate of the EIF model, which is averaged over the distribution of the w variable. These analytically derived closed-form expressions were tested on simulations from a large variety of model cells quantitatively fitted to in vitro electrophysiological recordings from pyramidal cells and interneurons. Theoretical predictions closely agreed with the firing rate of the simulated cells fed with in-vivo-like synaptic noise.

A simulation and optimisation procedure to model daily suppression resource transfers during a fire season in Colorado

Treesearch

Yu Wei; Erin J. Belval; Matthew P. Thompson; Dave E. Calkin; Crystal S. Stonesifer

2016-01-01

Sharing fire engines and crews between fire suppression dispatch zones may help improve the utilisation of fire suppression resources. Using the Resource Ordering and Status System, the Predictive Services’ Fire Potential Outlooks and the Rocky Mountain Region Preparedness Levels from 2010 to 2013, we tested a simulation and optimisation procedure to transfer crews and...

Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Urban Fire Incidents: a Case Study of Nanjing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, J.; Zhang, X.

2016-06-01

Fire and rescue service is one of the fundamental public services provided by government in order to protect people, properties and environment from fires and other disasters, and thus promote a safer living environment. Well understanding spatial-temporal dynamics of fire incidents can offer insights for potential determinants of various fire events and enable better fire risk estimation, assisting future allocation of prevention resources and strategic planning of mitigation programs. Using a 12-year (2002-2013) dataset containing the urban fire events in Nanjing, China, this research explores the spatial-temporal dynamics of urban fire incidents. A range of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) approaches and tools, such as spatial kernel density and co-maps, are employed to examine the spatial, temporal and spatial-temporal variations of the fire events. Particular attention has been paid to two types of fire incidents: residential properties and local facilities, due to their relatively higher occurrence frequencies. The results demonstrated that the amount of urban fire has greatly increased in the last decade and spatial-temporal distribution of fire events vary among different incident types, which implies varying impact of potential influencing factors for further investigation.

Research Plan for Fire Signatures and Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

Viewgraphs on the prevention, suppression, and detection of fires aboard a spacecraft is presented. The topics include: 1) Fire Prevention, Detection, and Suppression Sub-Element Products; 2) FPDS Organizing Questions; 3) FPDS Organizing Questions; 4) Signatures, Sensors, and Simulations; 5) Quantification of Fire and Pre-Fire Signatures; 6) Smoke; 7) DAFT Hardware; 8) Additional Benefits of DAFT; 9) Development and Characterization of Sensors 10) Simulation of the Transport of Smoke and Fire Precursors; and 11) FPDS Organizing Questions.

Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

2010-05-01

Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations and ignition probability grids (1000 x 1000 m) built from historical fire data (1995-2007). The simulation outputs were then examined to understand relationships between burn probability and specific vegetation types and ignition sources. Wildfire threats to specific values of human interest were quantified to map landscape patterns of wildfire risk. The simulation outputs also allowed us to differentiate between areas of the landscape that were progenitors of fires versus "victims" of large fires. The results provided spatially explicit data on wildfire likelihood and intensity that can be used in a variety of strategic and tactical planning forums to mitigate wildfire threats to human and other values in the Mediterranean Basin.

Ecosystem composition changes over the past millennium: model simulations and comparison with paleoecological observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Rollinson, C.; Dietze, M.; McLachlan, J. S.; Poulter, B.; Quaife, T. L.; Raiho, A.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Schaefer, K. M.; Steinkamp, J.; Moore, D. J.

2015-12-01

Over multi-decadal to multi-centennial timescales, ecosystem function and carbon storage is largely influenced by vegetation composition. The predictability of ecosystem responses to climate change thus depends on the understanding of long-term community dynamics. Our study aims to quantify the influence of the most relevant ecological factors that control plant distribution and abundance, in contemporary terrestrial biosphere models and in paleo-records, and constrain the model processes and parameters with paleoecological data. We simulated vegetation changes at 6 sites in the northeastern United States over the past 1160 years using 7 terrestrial biosphere models and variations (CLM4.5-CN, ED2, ED2-LU, JULES-TRIFFID, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS, LPJ-wsl) driven by common paleoclimatic drivers. We examined plant growth, recruitment, and mortality (including other carbon turnover) of the plant functional types (PFTs) in the models, attributed the responses to three major factors (climate, competition, and disturbance), and estimated the relative effect of each factor. We assessed the model responses against plant-community theories (bioclimatic limits, niche difference, temporal variation and storage effect, and disturbance). We found that vegetation composition were sensitive to realized niche differences (e.g. differential growth response) among PFTs. Because many models assume unlimited dispersal and sometimes recruitment, the "storage effect" constantly affects community composition. Fire was important in determining the ecosystem composition, yet the vegetation to fire feedback was weak in the models. We also found that vegetation-composition changes in the simulations were driven to a much greater degree by growth as opposed to by turnover/mortality, when compared with those in paleoecological records. Our work suggest that 1) for forecasting slow changes in vegetation composition, we can use paleo-data to better quantify the realized niches of PFTs and associated uncertainties, and 2) for predicting abrupt changes in vegetation composition, we need to better implement processes of dynamic turnover and fire in current ecosystem models.

The Safety Analysis of Shipborne Ammunition in Fire Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Junpeng; Wang, Xudong; Yue, Pengfei

2017-12-01

The safety of Ammunition has always been the focus of national military science and technology issues. And fire is one of the major safety threats to the ship’s ammunition storage environment, In this paper, Mk-82 shipborne aviation bomb has been taken as the study object, simulated the whole process of fire by using the FDS (Fire Detection System) software. According to the simulation results of FDS, ANSYS software was used to simulate the temperature field of Mk-82 carrier-based aviation bomb under fire environment, and the safety of aviation bomb in fire environment was analyzed. The result shows that the aviation bombs under the fire environment can occur the combustion or explosion after 70s constant cook-off, and it was a huge threat to the ship security.

Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2014-05-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify threshold values of indices useful to determine the end of the potential fire season due to fuel status. A weather generator linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Sardinia, Italy. Finally, impacts of future climate change on fire season length at local scale were simulated. Results confirmed that the projected climate scenarios over the Mediterranean area will determine an overall increase of the fire season length.

Estimation of number of fatalities caused by toxic gases due to fire in road tunnels.

PubMed

Qu, Xiaobo; Meng, Qiang; Liu, Zhiyuan

2013-01-01

The quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is one of the explicit requirements under the European Union (EU) Directive (2004/54/EC). As part of this, it is essential to be able to estimate the number of fatalities in different accident scenarios. In this paper, a tangible methodology is developed to estimate the number of fatalities caused by toxic gases due to fire in road tunnels by incorporating traffic flow and the spread of fire in tunnels. First, a deterministic queuing model is proposed to calculate the number of people at risk, by taking into account tunnel geometry, traffic flow patterns, and incident response plans for road tunnels. Second, the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) is used to obtain the temperature and concentrations of CO, CO(2), and O(2). By taking advantage of the additivity of the fractional effective dose (FED) method, fatality rates for different locations in given time periods can be estimated. An illustrative case study is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cluster dynamics of pulse coupled oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Keeffe, Kevin; Strogatz, Steven; Krapivsky, Paul

2015-03-01

We study the dynamics of networks of pulse coupled oscillators. Much attention has been devoted to the ultimate fate of the system: which conditions lead to a steady state in which all the oscillators are firing synchronously. But little is known about how synchrony builds up from an initially incoherent state. The current work addresses this question. Oscillators start to synchronize by forming clusters of different sizes that fire in unison. First pairs of oscillators, then triplets and so on. These clusters progressively grow by coalescing with others, eventually resulting in the fully synchronized state. We study the mean field model in which the coupling between oscillators is all to all. We use probabilistic arguments to derive a recursive set of evolution equations for these clusters. Using a generating function formalism, we derive simple equations for the moments of these clusters. Our results are in good agreement simulation. We then numerically explore the effects of non-trivial connectivity. Our results have potential application to ultra-low power ``impulse radio'' & sensor networks.

A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain

2011-01-01

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...

Retrieval of canopy moisture content for dynamic fire risk assessment using simulated MODIS bands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffei, Carmine; Leone, Antonio P.; Meoli, Giuseppe; Calabrò, Gaetano; Menenti, Massimo

2007-10-01

Forest fires are one of the major environmental hazards in Mediterranean Europe. Biomass burning reduces carbon fixation in terrestrial vegetation, while soil erosion increases in burned areas. For these reasons, more sophisticated prevention tools are needed by local authorities to forecast fire danger, allowing a sound allocation of intervention resources. Various factors contribute to the quantification of fire hazard, and among them vegetation moisture is the one that dictates vegetation susceptibility to fire ignition and propagation. Many authors have demonstrated the role of remote sensing in the assessment of vegetation equivalent water thickness (EWT), which is defined as the weight of liquid water per unit of leaf surface. However, fire models rely on the fuel moisture content (FMC) as a measure of vegetation moisture. FMC is defined as the ratio of the weight of the liquid water in a leaf over the weight of dry matter, and its retrieval from remote sensing measurements might be problematic, since it is calculated from two biophysical properties that independently affect vegetation reflectance spectrum. The aim of this research is to evaluate the potential of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) in retrieving both EWT and FMC from top of the canopy reflectance. The PROSPECT radiative transfer code was used to simulate leaf reflectance and transmittance as a function of leaf properties, and the SAILH model was adopted to simulate the top of the canopy reflectance. A number of moisture spectral indexes have been calculated, based on MODIS bands, and their performance in predicting EWT and FMC has been evaluated. Results showed that traditional moisture spectral indexes can accurately predict EWT but not FMC. However, it has been found that it is possible to take advantage of the multiple MODIS short-wave infrared (SWIR) channels to improve the retrieval accuracy of FMC (r2 = 0.73). The effects of canopy structural properties on MODIS estimates of FMC have been evaluated, and it has been found that the limiting factor is leaf area index (LAI). The best results are recorded for LAI>2 (r2 = 0.83), while acceptable results (r2 = 0.58) can still be achieved for lower vegetation cover density.

Application of MC1 to Wind Cave National Park: Lessons from a small-scale study: Chapter 8

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

2015-01-01

MC1 was designed for application to large regions that include a wide range in elevation and topography, thereby encompassing a broad range in climates and vegetation types. The authors applied the dynamic global vegetation model MC1 to Wind Cave National Park (WCNP) in the southern Black Hills of South Dakota, USA, on the ecotone between ponderosa pine forest to the northwest and mixed-grass prairie to the southeast. They calibrated MC1 to simulate adequate fire effects in the warmer southeastern parts of the park to ensure grasslands there, while allowing forests to grow to the northwest, and then simulated future vegetation with climate projections from three GCMs. The results suggest that fire frequency, as affected by climate and/or human intervention, may be more important than the direct effects of climate in determining the distribution of ponderosa pine in the Black Hills region, both historically and in the future.

Event-driven simulations of nonlinear integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Tonnelier, Arnaud; Belmabrouk, Hana; Martinez, Dominique

2007-12-01

Event-driven strategies have been used to simulate spiking neural networks exactly. Previous work is limited to linear integrate-and-fire neurons. In this note, we extend event-driven schemes to a class of nonlinear integrate-and-fire models. Results are presented for the quadratic integrate-and-fire model with instantaneous or exponential synaptic currents. Extensions to conductance-based currents and exponential integrate-and-fire neurons are discussed.

Simulating wall and corner fire tests on wood products with the OSU room fire model

Treesearch

H. C. Tran

1994-01-01

This work demonstrates the complexity of modeling wall and corner fires in a compartment. The model chosen for this purpose is the Ohio State University (OSU) room fire model. This model was designed to simulate fire growth on walls in a compartment and therefore lends itself to direct comparison with standard room test results. The model input were bench-scale data...

Catchment-scale Validation of a Physically-based, Post-fire Runoff and Erosion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, D.; Brooks, E. S.; Robichaud, P. R.; Dobre, M.; Brown, R. E.; Wagenbrenner, J.

2017-12-01

The cascading consequences of fire-induced ecological changes have profound impacts on both natural and managed forest ecosystems. Forest managers tasked with implementing post-fire mitigation strategies need robust tools to evaluate the effectiveness of their decisions, particularly those affecting hydrological recovery. Various hillslope-scale interfaces of the physically-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model have been successfully validated for this purpose using fire-effected plot experiments, however these interfaces are explicitly designed to simulate single hillslopes. Spatially-distributed, catchment-scale WEPP interfaces have been developed over the past decade, however none have been validated for post-fire simulations, posing a barrier to adoption for forest managers. In this validation study, we compare WEPP simulations with pre- and post-fire hydrological records for three forested catchments (W. Willow, N. Thomas, and S. Thomas) that burned in the 2011 Wallow Fire in Northeastern Arizona, USA. Simulations were conducted using two approaches; the first using automatically created inputs from an online, spatial, post-fire WEPP interface, and the second using manually created inputs which incorporate the spatial variability of fire effects observed in the field. Both approaches were compared to five years of observed post-fire sediment and flow data to assess goodness of fit.

Weapon Simulator Test Methodology Investigation: Comparison of Live Fire and Weapon Simulator Test Methodologies and the Effects of Clothing and Individual Equipment on Marksmanship

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-15

METHODOLOGY INVESTIGATION: COMPARISON OF LIVE FIRE AND WEAPON SIMULATOR TEST METHODOLOGIES AND THE EFFECTS OF CLOTHING AND INDIVIDUAL EQUIPMENT ON...2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) October 2014 – August 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE WEAPON SIMULATOR TEST METHODOLOGY INVESTIGATION...COMPARISON OF LIVE FIRE AND WEAPON SIMULATOR TEST METHODOLOGIES AND THE EFFECTS OF CLOTHING AND INDIVIDUAL EQUIPMENT ON MARKSMANSHIP 5a. CONTRACT

A comparison of three approaches for simulating fine-scale surface winds in support of wildland fire management. Part II. An exploratory study of the effect of simulated winds on fire growth simulations

Treesearch

Jason M. Forthofer; Bret W. Butler; Charles W. McHugh; Mark A. Finney; Larry S. Bradshaw; Richard D. Stratton; Kyle S. Shannon; Natalie S. Wagenbrenner

2014-01-01

The effect of fine-resolution wind simulations on fire growth simulations is explored. The wind models are (1) a wind field consisting of constant speed and direction applied everywhere over the area of interest; (2) a tool based on the solution of the conservation of mass only (termed mass-conserving model) and (3) a tool based on a solution of conservation of mass...

Spatially explicit and stochastic simulation of forest landscape fire disturbance and succession

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

Understanding disturbance and recovery of forest landscapes is a challenge because of complex interactions over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Landscape simulation models offer an approach to studying such systems at broad scales. Fire can be simulated spatially using mechanistic or stochastic approaches. We describe the fire module in a spatially explicit,...

Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system - Part 2: Impact on the net carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems for the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, F.; Bond-Lamberty, B.; Levis, S.

2014-03-01

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale. It affects the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems by emitting carbon directly and immediately into the atmosphere from biomass burning (the fire direct effect), and by changing net ecosystem productivity and land-use carbon loss in post-fire regions due to biomass burning and fire-induced vegetation mortality (the fire indirect effect). Here, we provide the first quantitative assessment of the impact of fire on the net carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems during the 20th century, and investigate the roles of fire's direct and indirect effects. This is done by quantifying the difference between the 20th century fire-on and fire-off simulations with the NCAR Community Land Model CLM4.5 (prescribed vegetation cover and uncoupled from the atmospheric model) as a model platform. Results show that fire decreases the net carbon gain of global terrestrial ecosystems by 1.0 Pg C yr-1 averaged across the 20th century, as a result of the fire direct effect (1.9 Pg C yr-1) partly offset by the indirect effect (-0.9 Pg C yr-1). Post-fire regions generally experience decreased carbon gains, which is significant over tropical savannas and some North American and East Asian forests. This decrease is due to the direct effect usually exceeding the indirect effect, while they have similar spatial patterns and opposite sign. The effect of fire on the net carbon balance significantly declines until ∼1970 with a trend of 8 Tg C yr-1 due to an increasing indirect effect, and increases subsequently with a trend of 18 Tg C yr-1 due to an increasing direct effect. These results help constrain the global-scale dynamics of fire and the terrestrial carbon cycle.

The analysis of factors of management of safety of critical information infrastructure with use of dynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trostyansky, S. N.; Kalach, A. V.; Lavlinsky, V. V.; Lankin, O. V.

2018-03-01

Based on the analysis of the dynamic model of panel data by region, including fire statistics for surveillance sites and statistics of a set of regional socio-economic indicators, as well as the time of rapid response of the state fire service to fires, the probability of fires in the surveillance sites and the risk of human death in The result of such fires from the values of the corresponding indicators for the previous year, a set of regional social-economics factors, as well as regional indicators time rapid response of the state fire service in the fire. The results obtained are consistent with the results of the application to the fire risks of the model of a rational offender. Estimation of the economic equivalent of human life from data on surveillance objects for Russia, calculated on the basis of the analysis of the presented dynamic model of fire risks, correctly agrees with the known literary data. The results obtained on the basis of the econometric approach to fire risks allow us to forecast fire risks at the supervisory sites in the regions of Russia and to develop management solutions to minimize such risks.

PROPAGATOR: a synchronous stochastic wildfire propagation model with distributed computation engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D´Andrea, M.; Fiorucci, P.; Biondi, G.; Negro, D.

2012-04-01

PROPAGATOR is a stochastic model of forest fire spread, useful as a rapid method for fire risk assessment. The model is based on a 2D stochastic cellular automaton. The domain of simulation is discretized using a square regular grid with cell size of 20x20 meters. The model uses high-resolution information such as elevation and type of vegetation on the ground. Input parameters are wind direction, speed and the ignition point of fire. The simulation of fire propagation is done via a stochastic mechanism of propagation between a burning cell and a non-burning cell belonging to its neighbourhood, i.e. the 8 adjacent cells in the rectangular grid. The fire spreads from one cell to its neighbours with a certain base probability, defined using vegetation types of two adjacent cells, and modified by taking into account the slope between them, wind direction and speed. The simulation is synchronous, and takes into account the time needed by the burning fire to cross each cell. Vegetation cover, slope, wind speed and direction affect the fire-propagation speed from cell to cell. The model simulates several mutually independent realizations of the same stochastic fire propagation process. Each of them provides a map of the area burned at each simulation time step. Propagator simulates self-extinction of the fire, and the propagation process continues until at least one cell of the domain is burning in each realization. The output of the model is a series of maps representing the probability of each cell of the domain to be affected by the fire at each time-step: these probabilities are obtained by evaluating the relative frequency of ignition of each cell with respect to the complete set of simulations. Propagator is available as a module in the OWIS (Opera Web Interfaces) system. The model simulation runs on a dedicated server and it is remote controlled from the client program, NAZCA. Ignition points of the simulation can be selected directly in a high-resolution, three-dimensional graphical representation of the Italian territory within NAZCA. The other simulation parameters, namely wind speed and direction, number of simulations, computing grid size and temporal resolution, can be selected from within the program interface. The output of the simulation is showed in real-time during the simulation, and are also available off-line and on the DEWETRA system, a Web GIS-based system for environmental risk assessment, developed according to OGC-INSPIRE standards. The model execution is very fast, providing a full prevision for the scenario in few minutes, and can be useful for real-time active fire management and suppression.

Can a knee brace reduce the strain in the anterior cruciate ligament? A study using combined in vivo/in vitro method.

PubMed

Hangalur, Gajendra; Brenneman, Elora; Nicholls, Micah; Bakker, Ryan; Laing, Andrew; Chandrashekar, Naveen

2016-06-01

It is unknown whether prophylactic knee braces can reduce the strain in the anterior cruciate ligament during dynamic activities. An athlete, who had characteristics of high anterior cruciate ligament injury risk, was chosen. A motion capture system (Optotrak Certus; Northern Digital, Waterloo, ON, Canada) was used to record dynamic trials during drop-landing activity of this subject with and without the knee brace being worn. A musculoskeletal model was used to estimate the muscle forces during this activity. A dynamic knee simulator then applied kinematics and muscle forces on a cadaver knee with and without the brace mounted on it. The anterior cruciate ligament strain was measured. The peak strain in the anterior cruciate ligament was substantially lower for the braced (7%) versus unbraced (20%) conditions. Functional knee braces could decrease the strain in the anterior cruciate ligament during dynamic activities in a high-risk subject. However, the reduction seems to be a result of altered muscle firing pattern due to the brace. Prophylactic knee brace could reduce the strain in the anterior cruciate ligament of high-risk subjects during drop-landing through altered muscle firing pattern associated with brace wear. This could help reduce the anterior cruciate ligament injury risk. © The International Society for Prosthetics and Orthotics 2015.

Inhibitory neurons promote robust critical firing dynamics in networks of integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Lu, Zhixin; Squires, Shane; Ott, Edward; Girvan, Michelle

2016-12-01

We study the firing dynamics of a discrete-state and discrete-time version of an integrate-and-fire neuronal network model with both excitatory and inhibitory neurons. When the integer-valued state of a neuron exceeds a threshold value, the neuron fires, sends out state-changing signals to its connected neurons, and returns to the resting state. In this model, a continuous phase transition from non-ceaseless firing to ceaseless firing is observed. At criticality, power-law distributions of avalanche size and duration with the previously derived exponents, -3/2 and -2, respectively, are observed. Using a mean-field approach, we show analytically how the critical point depends on model parameters. Our main result is that the combined presence of both inhibitory neurons and integrate-and-fire dynamics greatly enhances the robustness of critical power-law behavior (i.e., there is an increased range of parameters, including both sub- and supercritical values, for which several decades of power-law behavior occurs).

Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling

2008-01-01

The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...

Burn severity mapping using simulation modeling and satellite imagery

Treesearch

Eva C. Karau; Robert E. Keane

2010-01-01

Although burn severity maps derived from satellite imagery provide a landscape view of fire impacts, fire effects simulation models can provide spatial fire severity estimates and add a biotic context in which to interpret severity. In this project, we evaluated two methods of mapping burn severity in the context of rapid post-fire assessment for four wildfires in...

A foundation for initial attack simulation: the Fried and Fried fire containment model

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Fried; Burton D. Fried

2010-01-01

The Fried and Fried containment algorithm, which models the effect of suppression efforts on fire growth, allows simulation of any mathematically representable fire shape, provides for "head" and "tail" attack tactics as well as parallel attack (building fireline parallel to but at some offset distance from the free-burning fire perimeter, alone and...

Sensitivity of fire behavior simulations to fuel model variations

Treesearch

Lucy A. Salazar

1985-01-01

Stylized fuel models, or numerical descriptions of fuel arrays, are used as inputs to fire behavior simulation models. These fuel models are often chosen on the basis of generalized fuel descriptions, which are related to field observations. Site-specific observations of fuels or fire behavior in the field are not readily available or necessary for most fire management...

Training Effectiveness Evaluation (TEE) of the Advanced Fire Fighting Training System. Focus on the Trained Person.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cordell, Curtis C.; And Others

A training effectiveness evaluation of the Navy Advanced Fire Fighting Training System was conducted. This system incorporates simulated fires as well as curriculum materials and instruction. The fires are non-pollutant, computer controlled, and installed in a simulated shipboard environment. Two teams of 15 to 16 persons, with varying amounts of…

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

PubMed

Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

2018-01-21

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coordinated Scheduling for Interdependent Electric Power and Natural Gas Infrastructures

DOE PAGES

Zlotnik, Anatoly; Roald, Line; Backhaus, Scott; ...

2016-03-24

The extensive installation of gas-fired power plants in many parts of the world has led electric systems to depend heavily on reliable gas supplies. The use of gas-fired generators for peak load and reserve provision causes high intraday variability in withdrawals from high-pressure gas transmission systems. Such variability can lead to gas price fluctuations and supply disruptions that affect electric generator dispatch, electricity prices, and threaten the security of power systems and gas pipelines. These infrastructures function on vastly different spatio-temporal scales, which prevents current practices for separate operations and market clearing from being coordinated. Here in this article, wemore » apply new techniques for control of dynamic gas flows on pipeline networks to examine day-ahead scheduling of electric generator dispatch and gas compressor operation for different levels of integration, spanning from separate forecasting, and simulation to combined optimal control. We formulate multiple coordination scenarios and develop tractable physically accurate computational implementations. These scenarios are compared using an integrated model of test networks for power and gas systems with 24 nodes and 24 pipes, respectively, which are coupled through gas-fired generators. The analysis quantifies the economic efficiency and security benefits of gas-electric coordination and dynamic gas system operation.« less

Holocene fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics inferred from charcoal and pollen record in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wenwei; Zhao, Yan; Qin, Feng

2017-10-01

Understanding fire history and its driving mechanisms can provide valuable insights into present fire regime (intensity, severity and frequency), the interplay between vegetation and fire, and trigger of fire activities. Here we reconstruct the Holocene fire history in the Zoige Basin on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, on the basis of sedimentary micro-charcoal record over the last 10.0 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP) and discuss the influences of vegetation and climate on fire dynamics. Our results show that regional fire was active at 10.0-3.3 ka and a significant decrease in fire activity characterized the period after 3.3 ka. The high regional fire frequency at 10.0-3.3 ka is consistent with the forested landscape suggested by high affinity scores of cool mixed forest biome (mainly consisted of spruce), implying that fire dynamics during this period was generally controlled by the variations of arboreal biomass and summer temperature. During 6.3-4.6 ka the prevailing Asian summer monsoon provided increased moisture to this region and thus suppressed fire activities to an extent, despite the availability of abundant biomass. Declined tree biomass after 3.3 ka probably accounted for the decreased fire activities. In addition, two successive fire events at ca. 3.5-3.3 ka were likely responsible for the subsequent abrupt decline of forest components in the landscape.

Examining the relationship between fire history and sudden oak death patterns: a case study in Sonoma County

Treesearch

Max A. Moritz; Dennis C. Odion

2006-01-01

Fire is often integral to forest ecology and can affect forest disease dynamics. Sudden oak death has spread across a large, fire-prone portion of California, killing large numbers of oaks and tanoaks and infecting most associated woody plants. Building on our earlier study of fire-disease dynamics, we examined spatial patterns of confirmed infections in relation to...

Simulation on an optimal combustion control strategy for 3-D temperature distributions in tangentially pc-fired utility boiler furnaces.

PubMed

Wang, Xi-fen; Zhou, Huai-chun

2005-01-01

The control of 3-D temperature distribution in a utility boiler furnace is essential for the safe, economic and clean operation of pc-fired furnace with multi-burner system. The development of the visualization of 3-D temperature distributions in pc-fired furnaces makes it possible for a new combustion control strategy directly with the furnace temperature as its goal to improve the control quality for the combustion processes. Studied in this paper is such a new strategy that the whole furnace is divided into several parts in the vertical direction, and the average temperature and its bias from the center in every cross section can be extracted from the visualization results of the 3-D temperature distributions. In the simulation stage, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code served to calculate the 3-D temperature distributions in a furnace, then a linear model was set up to relate the features of the temperature distributions with the input of the combustion processes, such as the flow rates of fuel and air fed into the furnaces through all the burners. The adaptive genetic algorithm was adopted to find the optimal combination of the whole input parameters which ensure to form an optimal 3-D temperature field in the furnace desired for the operation of boiler. Simulation results showed that the strategy could soon find the factors making the temperature distribution apart from the optimal state and give correct adjusting suggestions.

Comparing Effects of Climate Warming, Fire, and Timber Harvesting on a Boreal Forest Landscape in Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaona; He, Hong S.; Wu, Zhiwei; Liang, Yu; Schneiderman, Jeffrey E.

2013-01-01

Forest management under a changing climate requires assessing the effects of climate warming and disturbance on the composition, age structure, and spatial patterns of tree species. We investigated these effects on a boreal forest in northeastern China using a factorial experimental design and simulation modeling. We used a spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS) to evaluate the effects of three independent variables: climate (current and expected future), fire regime (current and increased fire), and timber harvesting (no harvest and legal harvest). Simulations indicate that this forested landscape would be significantly impacted under a changing climate. Climate warming would significantly increase the abundance of most trees, especially broadleaf species (aspen, poplar, and willow). However, climate warming would have less impact on the abundance of conifers, diversity of forest age structure, and variation in spatial landscape structure than burning and harvesting. Burning was the predominant influence in the abundance of conifers except larch and the abundance of trees in mid-stage. Harvesting impacts were greatest for the abundance of larch and birch, and the abundance of trees during establishment stage (1–40 years), early stage (41–80 years) and old- growth stage (>180 years). Disturbance by timber harvesting and burning may significantly alter forest ecosystem dynamics by increasing forest fragmentation and decreasing forest diversity. Results from the simulations provide insight into the long term management of this boreal forest. PMID:23573209

Litter and dead wood dynamics in ponderosa pine forests along a 160-year chronosequence.

PubMed

Hall, S A; Burke, I C; Hobbs, N T

2006-12-01

Disturbances such as fire play a key role in controlling ecosystem structure. In fire-prone forests, organic detritus comprises a large pool of carbon and can control the frequency and intensity of fire. The ponderosa pine forests of the Colorado Front Range, USA, where fire has been suppressed for a century, provide an ideal system for studying the long-term dynamics of detrital pools. Our objectives were (1) to quantify the long-term temporal dynamics of detrital pools; and (2) to determine to what extent present stand structure, topography, and soils constrain these dynamics. We collected data on downed dead wood, litter, duff (partially decomposed litter on the forest floor), stand structure, topographic position, and soils for 31 sites along a 160-year chronosequence. We developed a compartment model and parameterized it to describe the temporal trends in the detrital pools. We then developed four sets of statistical models, quantifying the hypothesized relationship between pool size and (1) stand structure, (2) topography, (3) soils variables, and (4) time since fire. We contrasted how much support each hypothesis had in the data using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Time since fire explained 39-80% of the variability in dead wood of different size classes. Pool size increased to a peak as material killed by the fire fell, then decomposed rapidly to a minimum (61-85 years after fire for the different pools). It then increased, presumably as new detritus was produced by the regenerating stand. Litter was most strongly related to canopy cover (r2 = 77%), suggesting that litter fall, rather than decomposition, controls its dynamics. The temporal dynamics of duff were the hardest to predict. Detrital pool sizes were more strongly related to time since fire than to environmental variables. Woody debris peak-to-minimum time was 46-67 years, overlapping the range of historical fire return intervals (1 to > 100 years). Fires may therefore have burned under a wide range of fuel conditions, supporting the hypothesis that this region's fire regime was mixed severity.

Wildland fire limits subsequent fire occurrence

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Carol Miller; Lisa M. Holsinger; Scott Baggett; Benjamin J. Bird

2016-01-01

Several aspects of wildland fire are moderated by site- and landscape-level vegetation changes caused by previous fire, thereby creating a dynamic where one fire exerts a regulatory control on subsequent fire. For example, wildland fire has been shown to regulate the size and severity of subsequent fire. However, wildland fire has the potential to influence...

Analysis of Plume Impingement Effects from Orion Crew Service Module Dual Reaction Control System Engine Firings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prisbell, Andrew; Marichalar, J.; Lumpkin, F.; LeBeau, G.

2010-01-01

Plume impingement effects on the Orion Crew Service Module (CSM) were analyzed for various dual Reaction Control System (RCS) engine firings and various configurations of the solar arrays. The study was performed using a decoupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) approach. This approach included a single jet plume solution for the R1E RCS engine computed with the General Aerodynamic Simulation Program (GASP) CFD code. The CFD solution was used to create an inflow surface for the DSMC solution based on the Bird continuum breakdown parameter. The DSMC solution was then used to model the dual RCS plume impingement effects on the entire CSM geometry with deployed solar arrays. However, because the continuum breakdown parameter of 0.5 could not be achieved due to geometrical constraints and because high resolution in the plume shock interaction region is desired, a focused DSMC simulation modeling only the plumes and the shock interaction region was performed. This high resolution intermediate solution was then used as the inflow to the larger DSMC solution to obtain plume impingement heating, forces, and moments on the CSM and the solar arrays for a total of 21 cases that were analyzed. The results of these simulations were used to populate the Orion CSM Aerothermal Database.

Numerical simulations of LNG vapor dispersion in Brayton Fire Training Field tests with ANSYS CFX.

PubMed

Qi, Ruifeng; Ng, Dedy; Cormier, Benjamin R; Mannan, M Sam

2010-11-15

Federal safety regulations require the use of validated consequence models to determine the vapor cloud dispersion exclusion zones for accidental liquefied natural gas (LNG) releases. One tool that is being developed in industry for exclusion zone determination and LNG vapor dispersion modeling is computational fluid dynamics (CFD). This paper uses the ANSYS CFX CFD code to model LNG vapor dispersion in the atmosphere. Discussed are important parameters that are essential inputs to the ANSYS CFX simulations, including the atmospheric conditions, LNG evaporation rate and pool area, turbulence in the source term, ground surface temperature and roughness height, and effects of obstacles. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to illustrate uncertainties in the simulation results arising from the mesh size and source term turbulence intensity. In addition, a set of medium-scale LNG spill tests were performed at the Brayton Fire Training Field to collect data for validating the ANSYS CFX prediction results. A comparison of test data with simulation results demonstrated that CFX was able to describe the dense gas behavior of LNG vapor cloud, and its prediction results of downwind gas concentrations close to ground level were in approximate agreement with the test data. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What drives the kinematic evolution of star-forming galaxies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Chao-Ling

2017-12-01

One important result from recent large integral field spectrograph (IFS) surveys is that the intrinsic velocity dispersion of galaxies increases with redshift. Massive, rotationdominated discs are already in place at z ∼ 2, but they are dynamically hotter than spiral galaxies in the local Universe. Although several plausible mechanisms for this elevated velocity dispersion (e.g. star formation feedback, elevated gas supply, or more frequent galaxy interactions) have been proposed, the fundamental driver of the velocity dispersion enhancement at high redshift remains unclear. We investigate the origin of this kinematic evolution using a suite of cosmological simulations from the FIRE (Feedback In Realistic Environments) project. These simulations reproduce the observed trends between intrinsic velocity dispersion (σ intr), SFR, and z. In both the observed and simulated galaxies, σ intr is positively correlated with SFR. σ intr increases with redshift out to z ∼ 1 and then flattens beyond that. In the FIRE simulations, σ intr can vary significantly on timescales of ≲ 100 Myr. These variations closely mirror the time evolution of the SFR and gas inflow rate ( Ṁ gas). By cross-correlating pairs of σ intr Ṁ gas, and SFR, we show that the increased gas inflow leads to subsequent enhanced star formation, and enhancements in σ intr tend to temporally coincide with increases in Ṁ gas and SFR.

Management Impacts on Carbon Dynamics in a Sierra Nevada Mixed Conifer Forest

PubMed Central

Dore, Sabina; Fry, Danny L.; Collins, Brandon M.; Vargas, Rodrigo; York, Robert A.; Stephens, Scott L.

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems can act as sinks of carbon and thus mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions. When forests are actively managed, treatments can alter forests carbon dynamics, reducing their sink strength and switching them from sinks to sources of carbon. These effects are generally characterized by fast temporal dynamics. Hence this study monitored for over a decade the impacts of management practices commonly used to reduce fire hazards on the carbon dynamics of mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Soil CO2 efflux, carbon pools (i.e. soil carbon, litter, fine roots, tree biomass), and radial tree growth were compared among un-manipulated controls, prescribed fire, thinning, thinning followed by fire, and two clear-cut harvested sites. Soil CO2 efflux was reduced by both fire and harvesting (ca. 15%). Soil carbon content (upper 15 cm) was not significantly changed by harvest or fire treatments. Fine root biomass was reduced by clear-cut harvest (60–70%) but not by fire, and the litter layer was reduced 80% by clear-cut harvest and 40% by fire. Thinning effects on tree growth and biomass were concentrated in the first year after treatments, whereas fire effects persisted over the seven-year post-treatment period. Over this period, tree radial growth was increased (25%) by thinning and reduced (12%) by fire. After seven years, tree biomass returned to pre-treatment levels in both fire and thinning treatments; however, biomass and productivity decreased 30%-40% compared to controls when thinning was combined with fire. The clear-cut treatment had the strongest impact, reducing ecosystem carbon stocks and delaying the capacity for carbon uptake. We conclude that post-treatment carbon dynamics and ecosystem recovery time varied with intensity and type of treatments. Consequently, management practices can be selected to minimize ecosystem carbon losses while increasing future carbon uptake, resilience to high severity fire, and climate related stresses. PMID:26918460

Superresolution imaging reveals activity-dependent plasticity of axon morphology linked to changes in action potential conduction velocity.

PubMed

Chéreau, Ronan; Saraceno, G Ezequiel; Angibaud, Julie; Cattaert, Daniel; Nägerl, U Valentin

2017-02-07

Axons convey information to nearby and distant cells, and the time it takes for action potentials (APs) to reach their targets governs the timing of information transfer in neural circuits. In the unmyelinated axons of hippocampus, the conduction speed of APs depends crucially on axon diameters, which vary widely. However, it is not known whether axon diameters are dynamic and regulated by activity-dependent mechanisms. Using time-lapse superresolution microscopy in brain slices, we report that axons grow wider after high-frequency AP firing: synaptic boutons undergo a rapid enlargement, which is mostly transient, whereas axon shafts show a more delayed and progressive increase in diameter. Simulations of AP propagation incorporating these morphological dynamics predicted bidirectional effects on AP conduction speed. The predictions were confirmed by electrophysiological experiments, revealing a phase of slowed down AP conduction, which is linked to the transient enlargement of the synaptic boutons, followed by a sustained increase in conduction speed that accompanies the axon shaft widening induced by high-frequency AP firing. Taken together, our study outlines a morphological plasticity mechanism for dynamically fine-tuning AP conduction velocity, which potentially has wide implications for the temporal transfer of information in the brain.

Fire in operating theatres: DaSH-ing to the rescue.

PubMed

Wilson, Liam; Farooq, Omer

2018-01-01

Operating theatres are dynamic environments that require multi professional team interactions. Effective team working is essential for efficient delivery of safe patient care. A fire in the operating theatre is a rare but potentially life threatening event for both patients and staff. A rapid and cohesive response from theatre and allied staff including porters, fire safety officer etc is paramount. We delivered a training session that utilised in situ simulation (simulation in workplace). After conducting needs analysis, learning objectives were agreed. After thorough planning, the date and location of the training session were identified. Contingency plans were put in place to ensure that patient care was not compromised at any point. To ensure success, checklists for faculty were devised and adhered to. A medium fidelity manikin with live monitoring was used. The first part of the scenario involved management of a surgical emergency by theatre staff. The second part involved management of a fire in the operating theatre while an emergency procedure was being undertaken. To achieve maximum learning potential, debriefing was provided immediately after each part of the scenario. A fire safety officer was present as a content expert. Latent errors (hidden errors in the workplace, staff knowledge etc) were identified. Malfunctioning of theatre floor windows and staff unawareness about the location of an evacuation site were some of the identified latent errors. Thorough feedback to address these issues was provided to the participants on the day. A detailed report of the training session was given to the relevant departments. This resulted in the equipment faults being rectified. The training session was a very positive experience and helped not only in improving participants' knowledge, behaviour and confidence but also it made system and environment better equipped.

The Role of Driving Factors in Historical and Projected Carbon Dynamics in Wetland Ecosystems of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, Z.; Helene, G.; He, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A. D.; Bennett, A.; Breen, A. L.; Clein, J.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Johnson, K. D.; Kurkowski, T. A.; Pastick, N. J.; Rupp, S. T.; Wylie, B. K.; Zhu, Z.

2017-12-01

Wetlands are important terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska. It is important to understand and assess their role in the regional carbon dynamics in response to historical and projected environmental conditions. A coupled modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used to assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and fire regime on the historical and future carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. Simulations were conducted for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). These simulations estimate that the total carbon (C) storage in wetland ecosystems of Alaska is 5556 Tg C in 2009, with 89% of the C stored in soils. An estimated 175 Tg C was lost during the historical period, which is attributed to greater C lost from the Northwest Boreal LCC than C gained from the other three LCCs. The simulations for the projection period were conducted for six different scenarios driven by climate forcings from two different climate models for each of three CO2 emission scenarios. The mean total carbon storage increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 Tg C/yr to 4.42 Tg C/yr. Across the four LCCs, the largest relative C storage increase occurred in the Arctic and North Pacific LCCs. These increases were primarily driven by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than increases in heterotrophic respiration and fire emissions. Our analysis further indicates that NPP increase was primarily driven by CO2 fertilization ( 5% per 100 ppmv increase) as well as by increases in air temperature ( 1% per ° increase). Increases air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in wetlands biogenic CH4 emissions among the simulations ( 15% per ° increase). The combined effects of ecosystem CO2 sequestration and increased CH4 emissions result in a weaker global warming potential (GWP) for wetlands ecosystems in Alaska. Overall, this study estimates that wetland ecosystems of Alaska will transition into a C sink with less contribution to the global warming enhancement.

Fire-protection research for energy technology: Fy 80 year end report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasegawa, H. K.; Alvares, N. J.; Lipska, A. E.; Ford, H.; Priante, S.; Beason, D. G.

1981-05-01

This continuing research program was initiated in order to advance fire protection strategies for Fusion Energy Experiments (FEE). The program expanded to encompass other forms of energy research. Accomplishments for fiscal year 1980 were: finalization of the fault-free analysis of the Shiva fire management system; development of a second-generation, fire-growth analysis using an alternate model and new LLNL combustion dynamics data; improvements of techniques for chemical smoke aerosol analysis; development and test of a simple method to assess the corrosive potential of smoke aerosols; development of an initial aerosol dilution system; completion of primary small-scale tests for measurements of the dynamics of cable fires; finalization of primary survey format for non-LLNL energy technology facilities; and studies of fire dynamics and aerosol production from electrical insulation and computer tape cassettes.

Development of a Midscale Test for Flame Resistant Protection

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

Evaluation of Flame Resistant Clothing for Protection against Fire Simulations Using an Instrumented Manikin, which provides both radiant and convective heat...TEST METHODS FIRE RESISTANT MATERIALS TORCHES SIMULATION TEST EQUIPMENT FLAME RESISTANT CLOTHING PERFORMANCE(ENGINEERING... fabric during a fire , and even after the fire has been extinguished. The best known full scale transmitted heat flux test is the "ASTM F1930

Simulation of air quality impacts from prescribed fires on an urban area.

PubMed

Hu, Yongtao; Odman, M Talat; Chang, Michael E; Jackson, William; Lee, Sangil; Edgerton, Eric S; Baumann, Karsten; Russell, Armistead G

2008-05-15

On February 28, 2007, a severe smoke event caused by prescribed forest fires occurred in Atlanta, GA. Later smoke events in the southeastern metropolitan areas of the United States caused by the Georgia-Florida wild forest fires further magnified the significance of forest fire emissions and the benefits of being able to accurately predict such occurrences. By using preburning information, we utilize an operational forecasting system to simulate the potential air quality impacts from two large February 28th fires. Our "forecast" predicts that the scheduled prescribed fires would have resulted in over 1 million Atlanta residents being potentially exposed to fine particle matter (PM2.5) levels of 35 microg m(-3) or higher from 4 p.m. to midnight. The simulated peak 1 h PM2.5 concentration is about 121 microg m(-3). Our study suggests that the current air quality forecasting technology can be a useful tool for helping the management of fire activities to protect public health. With postburning information, our "hindcast" predictions improved significantly on timing and location and slightly on peak values. "Hindcast" simulations also indicated that additional isoprenoid emissions from pine species temporarily triggered by the fire could induce rapid ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation during late winter. Results from this study suggest that fire induced biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions missing from current fire emissions estimate should be included in the future.

Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Flight Dynamics Simulations Using MATLAB (R)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Headrick, R. D.; Rowe, J. N.

1996-01-01

This paper describes a study to verify onboard attitude control laws in the coarse Sun-pointing (CSP) mode by simulation and to develop procedures for operational support for the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission. SOHO was launched on December 2, 1995, and the predictions of the simulation were verified with the flight data. This study used a commercial off the shelf product MATLAB(tm) to do the following: Develop procedures for computing the parasitic torques for orbital maneuvers; Simulate onboard attitude control of roll, pitch, and yaw during orbital maneuvers; Develop procedures for predicting firing time for both on- and off-modulated thrusters during orbital maneuvers; Investigate the use of feed forward or pre-bias torques to reduce the attitude handoff during orbit maneuvers - in particular, determine how to use the flight data to improve the feed forward torque estimates for use on future maneuvers. The study verified the stability of the attitude control during orbital maneuvers and the proposed use of feed forward torques to compensate for the attitude handoff. Comparison of the simulations with flight data showed: Parasitic torques provided a good estimate of the on- and off-modulation for attitude control; The feed forward torque compensation scheme worked well to reduce attitude handoff during the orbital maneuvers. The work has been extended to prototype calibration of thrusters from observed firing time and observed reaction wheel speed changes.

A dynamics based view of atmosphere-fire interactions

Treesearch

Brian E. Potter

2002-01-01

Current research on severe fire interactions with the atmosphere focuses largely on examination of correlations between fire growth and various atmospheric properties, and on the development of indices based on these correlations. The author proposes that progress requires understanding the physics and atmospheric dynamics behind the correlations. A conceptual 3-stage...

Prescribed fire, soil nitrogen dynamics, and plant responses in a semiarid grassland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fire is a key driver of the structure and function of grassland ecosystems. In arid and semiarid ecosystems, where moisture limits plant production more than light, fire can potentially affect ecosystem dynamics through changes in soil moisture, temperature, and nitrogen cycling, as well as through ...

Network evolution induced by asynchronous stimuli through spike-timing-dependent plasticity.

PubMed

Yuan, Wu-Jie; Zhou, Jian-Fang; Zhou, Changsong

2013-01-01

In sensory neural system, external asynchronous stimuli play an important role in perceptual learning, associative memory and map development. However, the organization of structure and dynamics of neural networks induced by external asynchronous stimuli are not well understood. Spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) is a typical synaptic plasticity that has been extensively found in the sensory systems and that has received much theoretical attention. This synaptic plasticity is highly sensitive to correlations between pre- and postsynaptic firings. Thus, STDP is expected to play an important role in response to external asynchronous stimuli, which can induce segregative pre- and postsynaptic firings. In this paper, we study the impact of external asynchronous stimuli on the organization of structure and dynamics of neural networks through STDP. We construct a two-dimensional spatial neural network model with local connectivity and sparseness, and use external currents to stimulate alternately on different spatial layers. The adopted external currents imposed alternately on spatial layers can be here regarded as external asynchronous stimuli. Through extensive numerical simulations, we focus on the effects of stimulus number and inter-stimulus timing on synaptic connecting weights and the property of propagation dynamics in the resulting network structure. Interestingly, the resulting feedforward structure induced by stimulus-dependent asynchronous firings and its propagation dynamics reflect both the underlying property of STDP. The results imply a possible important role of STDP in generating feedforward structure and collective propagation activity required for experience-dependent map plasticity in developing in vivo sensory pathways and cortices. The relevance of the results to cue-triggered recall of learned temporal sequences, an important cognitive function, is briefly discussed as well. Furthermore, this finding suggests a potential application for examining STDP by measuring neural population activity in a cultured neural network.

Numerical simulation study on the distribution law of smoke flow velocity in horizontal tunnel fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yejiao; Tian, Zhichao; Xue, Junhua; Wang, Wencai

2018-02-01

According to the fluid similarity theory, the simulation experiment system of mining tunnel fire is established. The grid division of experimental model roadway is carried on by GAMBIT software. By setting the boundary and initial conditions of smoke flow during fire period in FLUENT software, using RNG k-Ɛ two-equation turbulence model, energy equation and SIMPLE algorithm, the steady state numerical simulation of smoke flow velocity in mining tunnel is done to obtain the distribution law of smoke flow velocity in tunnel during fire period.

Natural tree regeneration and coarse woody debris dynamics after a forest fire in the western Cascade Range

Treesearch

Martin J. Brown; Jane Kertis; Mark H. Huff

2013-01-01

We monitored coarse woody debris dynamics and natural tree regeneration over a 14-year period after the 1991 Warner Creek Fire, a 3631-ha (8,972-ac) mixed severity fire in the western Cascade Range of Oregon. Rates for tree mortality in the fire, postfire mortality, snag fall, and snag fragmentation all showed distinct patterns by tree diameter and species, with...

Using Earth Observations to Assess the Socioeconomic Impact of Human Decision Making during the Suppression of a Wildland Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, V. V.; Kochanski, A.; Mandel, J.; Herr, V.; Schranz, S.

2016-12-01

This presentation will discuss the fire simulation system based on WRF-SFIRE and assimilation of satellite Active Fires detection to estimate the socio-economic impact of Earth observations and fire behavior modeling for the 2011 Las Conchas fire in New Mexico. Multiple scenarios will be developed with the WRF-SFIRE simulation based on value of information (VOI) provided by retired incident commanders, whose decision inputs will steer scenario development and simulation. The scenarios will differ according to the Earth observations available through NASA and then deemed useful to incident commanders. Each scenario will be evaluated in terms of its socio-economic impact as specified by NASA (2012) for its wildland fire program. This presentation is a proposed supplement to NASA grant NNX13AH59G Wildland Fire Behavior and Risk Forecasting, Sher Schranz, PI.

Simulation of Propagation of Compartment Fire on Building Facades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simion, A.; Dragne, H.; Stoica, D.; Anghel, I.

2018-06-01

The façade fire simulation of buildings is carried out with Pyrosim numerical fire modeling program, following the implementation of a fire scenario in this simulation program. The scenario that was implemented in the Pyrosim program by researchers from the INCERC Fire Safety Research and Testing Laboratory complied with the requirements of BS 8414. The results obtained following the run of the computational program led to the visual validation of effluents at different time points from the beginning of the thermal load burning, as well as the validation in terms of recorded temperatures. It is considered that the results obtained are reasonable, the test being fully validated from the point of view of the implementation of the fire scenario, of the correct development of the effluents and of the temperature values [1].

Modeling Future Fire danger over North America in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, P.; Paimazumder, D.; Done, J.; Flannigan, M.

2016-12-01

Fire danger ratings are used to determine wildfire potential due to weather and climate factors. The Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), incorporates temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation to give a daily fire danger rating that is used by wildfire management agencies in an operational context. Studies using GCM output have shown that future wildfire danger will increase in a warming climate. However, these studies are somewhat limited by the coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-400km) and temporal resolution (typically 6-hourly to monthly) of the model output. Future wildfire potential over North America based on FWI is calculated using output from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is used to downscale future climate scenarios from the bias-corrected Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under RCP8.5 scenarios at a spatial resolution of 36km. We consider five eleven year time slices: 1990-2000, 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. The dynamically downscaled simulation improves determination of future extreme weather by improving both spatial and temporal resolution over most GCM models. To characterize extreme fire weather we calculate annual numbers of spread days (days for which FWI > 19) and annual 99th percentile of FWI. Additionally, an extreme value analysis based on the peaks-over-threshold method allows us to calculate the return values for extreme FWI values.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, Dave E

2011-08-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Mudelsee, Manfred

2008-03-01

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.

Quantifying chaotic dynamics from integrate-and-fire processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pavlov, A. N.; Saratov State Technical University, Politehnicheskaya Str. 77, 410054 Saratov; Pavlova, O. N.

2015-01-15

Characterizing chaotic dynamics from integrate-and-fire (IF) interspike intervals (ISIs) is relatively easy performed at high firing rates. When the firing rate is low, a correct estimation of Lyapunov exponents (LEs) describing dynamical features of complex oscillations reflected in the IF ISI sequences becomes more complicated. In this work we discuss peculiarities and limitations of quantifying chaotic dynamics from IF point processes. We consider main factors leading to underestimated LEs and demonstrate a way of improving numerical determining of LEs from IF ISI sequences. We show that estimations of the two largest LEs can be performed using around 400 mean periodsmore » of chaotic oscillations in the regime of phase-coherent chaos. Application to real data is discussed.« less

Optimal sparse approximation with integrate and fire neurons.

PubMed

Shapero, Samuel; Zhu, Mengchen; Hasler, Jennifer; Rozell, Christopher

2014-08-01

Sparse approximation is a hypothesized coding strategy where a population of sensory neurons (e.g. V1) encodes a stimulus using as few active neurons as possible. We present the Spiking LCA (locally competitive algorithm), a rate encoded Spiking Neural Network (SNN) of integrate and fire neurons that calculate sparse approximations. The Spiking LCA is designed to be equivalent to the nonspiking LCA, an analog dynamical system that converges on a ℓ(1)-norm sparse approximations exponentially. We show that the firing rate of the Spiking LCA converges on the same solution as the analog LCA, with an error inversely proportional to the sampling time. We simulate in NEURON a network of 128 neuron pairs that encode 8 × 8 pixel image patches, demonstrating that the network converges to nearly optimal encodings within 20 ms of biological time. We also show that when using more biophysically realistic parameters in the neurons, the gain function encourages additional ℓ(0)-norm sparsity in the encoding, relative both to ideal neurons and digital solvers.

Impacts: NIST Building and Fire Research Laboratory (technical and societal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raufaste, N. J.

1993-08-01

The Building and Fire Research Laboratory (BFRL) of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is dedicated to the life cycle quality of constructed facilities. The report describes major effects of BFRL's program on building and fire research. Contents of the document include: structural reliability; nondestructive testing of concrete; structural failure investigations; seismic design and construction standards; rehabilitation codes and standards; alternative refrigerants research; HVAC simulation models; thermal insulation; residential equipment energy efficiency; residential plumbing standards; computer image evaluation of building materials; corrosion-protection for reinforcing steel; prediction of the service lives of building materials; quality of construction materials laboratory testing; roofing standards; simulating fires with computers; fire safety evaluation system; fire investigations; soot formation and evolution; cone calorimeter development; smoke detector standards; standard for the flammability of children's sleepwear; smoldering insulation fires; wood heating safety research; in-place testing of concrete; communication protocols for building automation and control systems; computer simulation of the properties of concrete and other porous materials; cigarette-induced furniture fires; carbon monoxide formation in enclosure fires; halon alternative fire extinguishing agents; turbulent mixing research; materials fire research; furniture flammability testing; standard for the cigarette ignition resistance of mattresses; support of navy firefighter trainer program; and using fire to clean up oil spills.

Post-fire reconstructions of fire intensity from fire severity data: quantifying the role of spatial variability of fire intensity on forest dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Patrick; Oborne, Lisa

2015-04-01

Large, high-intensity fires have direct and long-lasting effects on forest ecosystems and present a serious threat to human life and property. However, even within the most catastrophic fires there is important variability in local-scale intensity that has important ramifications for forest mortality and regeneration. Quantifying this variability is difficult due to the rarity of catastrophic fire events, the extreme conditions at the time of the fires, and their large spatial extent. Instead fire severity is typically measured or estimated from observed patterns of vegetation mortality; however, differences in species- and size-specific responses to fires often makes fire severity a poor proxy for fire intensity. We developed a statistical method using simple, plot-based measurements of individual tree mortality to simultaneously estimate plot-level fire intensity and species-specific mortality patterns as a function of tree size. We applied our approach to an area of forest burned in the catastrophic Black Saturday fires that occurred near Melbourne, Australia, in February 2009. Despite being the most devastating fire in the past 70 years and our plots being located in the area that experienced some of the most intense fires in the 350,000 ha fire complex, we found that the estimated fire intensity was highly variable at multiple spatial scales. All eight tree species in our study differed in their susceptibility to fire-induced mortality, particularly among the largest size classes. We also found that seedling height and species richness of the post-fire seedling communities were both positively correlated with fire intensity. Spatial variability in disturbance intensity has important, but poorly understood, consequences for the short- and long-term dynamics of forests in the wake of catastrophic wildfires. Our study provides a tool to estimate fire intensity after a fire has passed, allowing new opportunities for linking spatial variability in fire intensity to forest ecosystem dynamics.

Numerical Field Model Simulation of Full Scale Fire Tests in a Closed Spherical/Cylindrical Vessel.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-01

the behavior of an actual fire on board a ship. The computer model will be verified by the experimental data obtained in Fire-l. It is important to... behavior in simulations where convection is important. The upwind differencing scheme takes into account the unsymmetrical phenomenon of convection by using...TANK CELL ON THE NORTH SIDE) FOR A * * PARTICULAR FIRE CELL * * COSUMS (I,J) = THE ARRAY TO STORE THE SIMILIAR VALUE FOR THE FIRE * * CELL TO THE SOUTH

Turbulence and fire-spotting effects into wild-land fire simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaur, Inderpreet; Mentrelli, Andrea; Bosseur, Frédéric; Filippi, Jean-Baptiste; Pagnini, Gianni

2016-10-01

This paper presents a mathematical approach to model the effects and the role of phenomena with random nature such as turbulence and fire-spotting into the existing wildfire simulators. The formulation proposes that the propagation of the fire-front is the sum of a drifting component (obtained from an existing wildfire simulator without turbulence and fire-spotting) and a random fluctuating component. The modelling of the random effects is embodied in a probability density function accounting for the fluctuations around the fire perimeter which is given by the drifting component. In past, this formulation has been applied to include these random effects into a wildfire simulator based on an Eulerian moving interface method, namely the Level Set Method (LSM), but in this paper the same formulation is adapted for a wildfire simulator based on a Lagrangian front tracking technique, namely the Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS). The main highlight of the present study is the comparison of the performance of a Lagrangian and an Eulerian moving interface method when applied to wild-land fire propagation. Simple idealised numerical experiments are used to investigate the potential applicability of the proposed formulation to DEVS and to compare its behaviour with respect to the LSM. The results show that DEVS based wildfire propagation model qualitatively improves its performance (e.g., reproducing flank and back fire, increase in fire spread due to pre-heating of the fuel by hot air and firebrands, fire propagation across no fuel zones, secondary fire generation, ...) when random effects are included according to the present formulation. The performance of DEVS and LSM based wildfire models is comparable and the only differences which arise among the two are due to the differences in the geometrical construction of the direction of propagation. Though the results presented here are devoid of any validation exercise and provide only a proof of concept, they show a strong inclination towards an intended operational use. The existing LSM or DEVS based operational simulators like WRF-SFIRE and ForeFire respectively can serve as an ideal basis for the same.

Fire dynamics and implications for nitrogen cycling in boreal forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, J.W.; Mack, M.; Veldhuis, H.; Gower, S.T.

2003-01-01

We used a dynamic, long-term mass balance approach to track cumulative carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) losses to fire in boreal Manitoba over the 6500 years since deglaciation. Estimated C losses to decomposition and fire, combined with measurements of N pools in mature and burned forest floors, suggest that loss of N by combustion has likely resulted in a long-term loss that exceeds the amount of N stored in soil today by 2 to 3 times. These estimates imply that biological N fixation rates could be as high as 5 to 10 times atmospheric deposition rates in boreal regions. At the site scale, the amount of N lost is due to N content of fuels, which varies by stand type and fire severity, which in turn vary with climate and fire dynamics. The interplay of fire frequency, fire severity, and N partitioning during regrowth are important for understanding rates and sustainability of nutrient and carbon cycling over millenia and over broad regions.

Long-term boreal forest dynamics and disturbances: a multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stivrins, Normunds; Aakala, Tuomas; Kuuluvainen, Timo; Pasanen, Leena; Ilvonen, Liisa; Holmström, Lasse; Seppä, Heikki

2017-04-01

The boreal forest provides a variety of ecosystem services that are threatened under the ongoing climate warming. Along with the climate, there are several factors (fire, human-impact, pathogens), which influence boreal forest dynamics. Combination of short and long-term studies allowing complex assessment of forest response to natural abiotic and biotic stress factors is necessary for sustainable management of the boreal forest now and in the future. The ongoing EBOR (Ecological history and long-term dynamics of the boreal forest ecosystem) project integrates forest ecological and palaeoecological approaches to study boreal forest dynamics and disturbances. Using pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, micro- and macrocharcoal, tree rings and fire scars, we analysed forest dynamics at stand-scale by sampling small forest hollows (small paludified depressions) and the surrounding forest stands in Finland and western Russia. Using charcoal data, we estimated a fire return interval of 320 years for the Russian sites, and, based on the fungi Neurospora that can grow on charred tree bark after a low-intensity fire, we were able to distinguish low- and high-intensity fire-events. In addition to the influence of fire events and/or fire regime changes, we further assessed potential relationships between tree species and herbivore presence and pathogens. As an example of such a relationship, our preliminary findings indicated a negative relationship between Picea and fungi Lasiosphaeria (caudata), which occurred during times of Picea decline.

Spectrum of Lyapunov exponents of non-smooth dynamical systems of integrate-and-fire type.

PubMed

Zhou, Douglas; Sun, Yi; Rangan, Aaditya V; Cai, David

2010-04-01

We discuss how to characterize long-time dynamics of non-smooth dynamical systems, such as integrate-and-fire (I&F) like neuronal network, using Lyapunov exponents and present a stable numerical method for the accurate evaluation of the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents for this large class of dynamics. These dynamics contain (i) jump conditions as in the firing-reset dynamics and (ii) degeneracy such as in the refractory period in which voltage-like variables of the network collapse to a single constant value. Using the networks of linear I&F neurons, exponential I&F neurons, and I&F neurons with adaptive threshold, we illustrate our method and discuss the rich dynamics of these networks.

Neuronal excitability level transition induced by electrical stimulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florence, G.; Kurths, J.; Machado, B. S.; Fonoff, E. T.; Cerdeira, H. A.; Teixeira, M. J.; Sameshima, K.

2014-12-01

In experimental studies, electrical stimulation (ES) has been applied to induce neuronal activity or to disrupt pathological patterns. Nevertheless, the underlying mechanisms of these activity pattern transitions are not clear. To study these phenomena, we simulated a model of the hippocampal region CA1. The computational simulations using different amplitude levels and duration of ES revealed three states of neuronal excitability: burst-firing mode, depolarization block and spreading depression wave. We used the bifurcation theory to analyse the interference of ES in the cellular excitability and the neuronal dynamics. Understanding this process would help to improve the ES techniques to control some neurological disorders.

Use of spatially refined satellite remote sensing fire detection data to initialize and evaluate coupled weather-wildfire growth model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, W.; Coen, J.; Oliva, P.

2013-12-01

Availability of spatially refined satellite active fire detection data is gradually increasing. For example, the new 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data show improved active fire detection performance for both small and large size fires. The VIIRS data have proved superior to MODIS for mapping of wildfires events spanning several days to weeks of either continued or intermittent activity, delivering 12-h active fire data of improved spatial fidelity. The VIIRS active fire data are complemented by other satellite active fire data sets of similar or higher spatial resolution, including the new 30 m Landsat-8. Additional assets should include the upcoming 20 m Sentinel-2 Landsat-class satellite program by the European Space Agency to be launched in 2014-15. These improved active fire data sets are fostering new applications that rely on higher resolution input fire data. In this study, we describe the characteristics of the new VIIRS and Landsat-8 data and demonstrate one such new application of satellite active fire data in support of fire behavior modeling. We present results for a wildfire observed in June 2012 in New Mexico using an innovative approach to improving the simulation of large, long-duration wildfires, either for retrospective studies or forecasting in a number of geophysical applications. The approach uses (1) the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire Environment (CAWFE) Model, a numerical weather prediction model two-way coupled with a module representing the rate of spread of a wildfire's flaming front, its rate of consumption of different wildland fuels, and the feedback of this heat release upon the atmosphere - i.e. 'how a fire creates its own weather', combined with (2) spatially refined 375 m VIIRS active fire data, which is used for initialization of a wildfire already in progress in the model and evaluation of its simulated progression at the time of the next pass. Results show that initializing a fire that is 'in progress' with VIIRS data and a weather simulation based on more recent atmospheric analyses can overcome several issues and improve the simulation of late-developing fires and of later periods (particularly those with growth periods separated by lulls) in a long-lived fire.

Airborne Detection and Dynamic Modeling of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacob, Jamey; Mitchell, Taylor; Whyte, Seabrook

2015-11-01

To facilitate safe storage of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, airborne monitoring is investigated. Conventional soil gas monitoring has difficulty in distinguishing gas flux signals from leakage with those associated with meteorologically driven changes. A low-cost, lightweight sensor system has been developed and implemented onboard a small unmanned aircraft that measures gas concentration and is combined with other atmospheric diagnostics, including thermodynamic data and velocity from hot-wire and multi-hole probes. To characterize the system behavior and verify its effectiveness, field tests have been conducted over controlled rangeland burns and over simulated leaks. In the former case, since fire produces carbon dioxide over a large area, this was an opportunity to test in an environment that while only vaguely similar to a carbon sequestration leak source, also exhibits interesting plume behavior. In the simulated field tests, compressed gas tanks are used to mimic leaks and generate gaseous plumes. Since the sensor response time is a function of vehicle airspeed, dynamic calibration models are required to determine accurate location of gas concentration in (x , y , z , t) . Results are compared with simulations using combined flight and atmospheric dynamic models. Supported by Department of Energy Award DE-FE0012173.

Effects of soil freezing and thawing on vegetation carbon density in Siberia: A modeling analysis with the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beer, C.; Lucht, W.; Gerten, D.; Thonicke, K.; Schmullius, C.

2007-03-01

The current latitudinal gradient in biomass suggests a climate-driven limitation of biomass in high latitudes. Understanding of the underlying processes, and quantification of their relative importance, is required to assess the potential carbon uptake of the biosphere in response to anticipated warming and related changes in tree growth and forest extent in these regions. We analyze the hydrological effects of thawing and freezing of soil on vegetation carbon density (VCD) in permafrost-dominated regions of Siberia using a process-based biogeochemistry-biogeography model, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM). The analysis is based on spatially explicit simulations of coupled daily thaw depth, site hydrology, vegetation distribution, and carbon fluxes influencing VCD subject to climate, soil texture, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. LPJ represents the observed high spring peak of runoff of large Arctic rivers, and simulates a realistic fire return interval of 100 to 200 years in Siberia. The simulated VCD changeover from taiga to tundra is comparable to inventory-based information. Without the consideration of freeze-thaw processes VCD would be overestimated by a factor of 2 in southern taiga to a factor of 5 in northern forest tundra, mainly because available soil water would be overestimated with major effects on fire occurrence and net primary productivity. This suggests that forest growth in high latitudes is not only limited by temperature, radiation, and nutrient availability but also by the availability of liquid soil water.

Combustion Processes in the Aerospace Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huggett, Clayton

1969-01-01

The aerospace environment introduces new and enhanced fire hazards because the special atmosphere employed may increase the frequency and intensity of fires, because the confinement associated with aerospace systems adversely affects the dynamics of fire development and control, and because the hostile external environments limit fire control and rescue operations. Oxygen enriched atmospheres contribute to the fire hazard in aerospace systems by extending the list of combustible fuels, increasing the probability of ignition, and increasing the rates of fire spread and energy release. A system for classifying atmospheres according to the degree of fire hazard, based on the heat capacity of the atmosphere per mole of oxygen, is suggested. A brief exploration of the dynamics of chamber fires shows that such fires will exhibit an exponential growth rate and may grow to dangerous size in a very short time. Relatively small quantities of fuel and oxygen can produce a catastrophic fire in a closed chamber.

Mapping fire probability and severity in a Mediterranean area using different weather and fuel moisture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arca, B.; Salis, M.; Bacciu, V.; Duce, P.; Pellizzaro, G.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.

2009-04-01

Although in many countries lightning is the main cause of ignition, in the Mediterranean Basin the forest fires are predominantly ignited by arson, or by human negligence. The fire season peaks coincide with extreme weather conditions (mainly strong winds, hot temperatures, low atmospheric water vapour content) and high tourist presence. Many works reported that in the Mediterranean Basin the projected impacts of climate change will cause greater weather variability and extreme weather conditions, with drier and hotter summers and heat waves. At long-term scale, climate changes could affect the fuel load and the dead/live fuel ratio, and therefore could change the vegetation flammability. At short-time scale, the increase of extreme weather events could directly affect fuel water status, and it could increase large fire occurrence. In this context, detecting the areas characterized by both high probability of large fire occurrence and high fire severity could represent an important component of the fire management planning. In this work we compared several fire probability and severity maps (fire occurrence, rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length) obtained for a study area located in North Sardinia, Italy, using FlamMap simulator (USDA Forest Service, Missoula). FlamMap computes the potential fire behaviour characteristics over a defined landscape for given weather, wind and fuel moisture data. Different weather and fuel moisture scenarios were tested to predict the potential impact of climate changes on fire parameters. The study area, characterized by a mosaic of urban areas, protected areas, and other areas subject to anthropogenic disturbances, is mainly composed by fire-prone Mediterranean maquis. The input themes needed to run FlamMap were input as grid of 10 meters; the wind data, obtained using a computational fluid-dynamic model, were inserted as gridded file, with a resolution of 50 m. The analysis revealed high fire probability and severity in most of the areas, and therefore a high potential danger. The FlamMap outputs and the derived fire probability maps can be used in decision support systems for fire spread and behaviour and for fire danger assessment with actual and future fire regimes.

Surface Dimming by the 2013 Rim Fire Simulated by a Sectional Aerosol Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Pengfei; Toon, Owen B.; Bardeen, Charles G; Bucholtz, Anthony; Rosenlof, Karen; Saide, Pablo E.; Da Silva, Arlindo M.; Ziemba, Luke D.; Thornhill, Kenneth L.; Jimenez, Jose-Luis;

Surface dimming by the 2013 Rim Fire simulated by a sectional aerosol model.

PubMed

Yu, Pengfei; Toon, Owen B; Bardeen, Charles G; Bucholtz, Anthony; Rosenlof, Karen H; Saide, Pablo E; Da Silva, Arlindo; Ziemba, Luke D; Thornhill, Kenneth L; Jimenez, Jose-Luis; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro; Schwarz, Joshua P; Perring, Anne E; Froyd, Karl D; Wagner, N L; Mills, Michael J; Reid, Jeffrey S

2016-06-27

The Rim Fire of 2013, the third largest area burned by fire recorded in California history, is simulated by a climate model coupled with a size-resolved aerosol model. Modeled aerosol mass, number, and particle size distribution are within variability of data obtained from multiple-airborne in situ measurements. Simulations suggest that Rim Fire smoke may block 4-6% of sunlight energy reaching the surface, with a dimming efficiency around 120-150 W m -2 per unit aerosol optical depth in the midvisible at 13:00-15:00 local time. Underestimation of simulated smoke single scattering albedo at midvisible by 0.04 suggests that the model overestimates either the particle size or the absorption due to black carbon. This study shows that exceptional events like the 2013 Rim Fire can be simulated by a climate model with 1° resolution with overall good skill, although that resolution is still not sufficient to resolve the smoke peak near the source region.

Distribution of correlated spiking events in a population-based approach for Integrate-and-Fire networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiwei; Newhall, Katherine; Zhou, Douglas; Rangan, Aaditya

2014-04-01

Randomly connected populations of spiking neurons display a rich variety of dynamics. However, much of the current modeling and theoretical work has focused on two dynamical extremes: on one hand homogeneous dynamics characterized by weak correlations between neurons, and on the other hand total synchrony characterized by large populations firing in unison. In this paper we address the conceptual issue of how to mathematically characterize the partially synchronous "multiple firing events" (MFEs) which manifest in between these two dynamical extremes. We further develop a geometric method for obtaining the distribution of magnitudes of these MFEs by recasting the cascading firing event process as a first-passage time problem, and deriving an analytical approximation of the first passage time density valid for large neuron populations. Thus, we establish a direct link between the voltage distributions of excitatory and inhibitory neurons and the number of neurons firing in an MFE that can be easily integrated into population-based computational methods, thereby bridging the gap between homogeneous firing regimes and total synchrony.

Cyclic occurrence of fire and its role in carbon dynamics along an edaphic moisture gradient in longleaf pine ecosystems.

PubMed

Whelan, Andrew; Mitchell, Robert; Staudhammer, Christina; Starr, Gregory

2013-01-01

Fire regulates the structure and function of savanna ecosystems, yet we lack understanding of how cyclic fire affects savanna carbon dynamics. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how predicted changes in climate may impact the interaction between fire and carbon cycling in these ecosystems. This study utilizes a novel combination of prescribed fire, eddy covariance (EC) and statistical techniques to investigate carbon dynamics in frequently burned longleaf pine savannas along a gradient of soil moisture availability (mesic, intermediate and xeric). This research approach allowed us to investigate the complex interactions between carbon exchange and cyclic fire along the ecological amplitude of longleaf pine. Over three years of EC measurement of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) show that the mesic site was a net carbon sink (NEE = -2.48 tonnes C ha(-1)), while intermediate and xeric sites were net carbon sources (NEE = 1.57 and 1.46 tonnes C ha(-1), respectively), but when carbon losses due to fuel consumption were taken into account, all three sites were carbon sources (10.78, 7.95 and 9.69 tonnes C ha(-1) at the mesic, intermediate and xeric sites, respectively). Nonetheless, rates of NEE returned to pre-fire levels 1-2 months following fire. Consumption of leaf area by prescribed fire was associated with reduction in NEE post-fire, and the system quickly recovered its carbon uptake capacity 30-60 days post fire. While losses due to fire affected carbon balances on short time scales (instantaneous to a few months), drought conditions over the final two years of the study were a more important driver of net carbon loss on yearly to multi-year time scales. However, longer-term observations over greater environmental variability and additional fire cycles would help to more precisely examine interactions between fire and climate and make future predictions about carbon dynamics in these systems.

Cyclic Occurrence of Fire and Its Role in Carbon Dynamics along an Edaphic Moisture Gradient in Longleaf Pine Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Whelan, Andrew; Mitchell, Robert; Staudhammer, Christina; Starr, Gregory

2013-01-01

Fire regulates the structure and function of savanna ecosystems, yet we lack understanding of how cyclic fire affects savanna carbon dynamics. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how predicted changes in climate may impact the interaction between fire and carbon cycling in these ecosystems. This study utilizes a novel combination of prescribed fire, eddy covariance (EC) and statistical techniques to investigate carbon dynamics in frequently burned longleaf pine savannas along a gradient of soil moisture availability (mesic, intermediate and xeric). This research approach allowed us to investigate the complex interactions between carbon exchange and cyclic fire along the ecological amplitude of longleaf pine. Over three years of EC measurement of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) show that the mesic site was a net carbon sink (NEE = −2.48 tonnes C ha−1), while intermediate and xeric sites were net carbon sources (NEE = 1.57 and 1.46 tonnes C ha−1, respectively), but when carbon losses due to fuel consumption were taken into account, all three sites were carbon sources (10.78, 7.95 and 9.69 tonnes C ha−1 at the mesic, intermediate and xeric sites, respectively). Nonetheless, rates of NEE returned to pre-fire levels 1–2 months following fire. Consumption of leaf area by prescribed fire was associated with reduction in NEE post-fire, and the system quickly recovered its carbon uptake capacity 30–60 days post fire. While losses due to fire affected carbon balances on short time scales (instantaneous to a few months), drought conditions over the final two years of the study were a more important driver of net carbon loss on yearly to multi-year time scales. However, longer-term observations over greater environmental variability and additional fire cycles would help to more precisely examine interactions between fire and climate and make future predictions about carbon dynamics in these systems. PMID:23335986

Fire - Southern Oscillation relations in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swetnam, T.W.; Betancourt, J.L.

1990-01-01

Fire scar and tree growth chronologies (1700 to 1905) and fire statistics (since 1905) from Arizona and New Mexico show that small areas burn after wet springs associated with the low phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO), whereas large areas burn after dry springs associated with the high phase of the SO. Through its synergistic influence on spring weather and fuel conditions, climatic variability in the tropical Pacific significantly influences vegetation dynamics in the southwestern United States. Synchrony of fire-free and severe fire years across diverse southwestern forests implies that climate forces fire regimes on a subcontinental scale; it also underscores the importance of exogenous factors in ecosystem dynamics.

Optimal Space Station solar array gimbal angle determination via radial basis function neural networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clancy, Daniel J.; Oezguener, Uemit; Graham, Ronald E.

1994-01-01

The potential for excessive plume impingement loads on Space Station Freedom solar arrays, caused by jet firings from an approaching Space Shuttle, is addressed. An artificial neural network is designed to determine commanded solar array beta gimbal angle for minimum plume loads. The commanded angle would be determined dynamically. The network design proposed involves radial basis functions as activation functions. Design, development, and simulation of this network design are discussed.

Fuel type characterization and potential fire behavior estimation in Sardinia and Corsica islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V.; Pellizzaro, G.; Santoni, P.; Arca, B.; Ventura, A.; Salis, M.; Barboni, T.; Leroy, V.; Cancellieri, D.; Leoni, E.; Ferrat, L.; Perez, Y.; Duce, P.; Spano, D.

2012-04-01

Wildland fires represent a serious threat to forests and wooded areas of the Mediterranean Basin. As recorded by the European Commission (2009), during the last decade Southern Countries have experienced an annual average of about 50,000 forest fires and about 470,000 burned hectares. The factor that can be directly manipulated in order to minimize fire intensity and reduce other fire impacts, such as three mortality, smoke emission, and soil erosion, is wildland fuel. Fuel characteristics, such as vegetation cover, type, humidity status, and biomass and necromass loading are critical variables in affecting wildland fire occurrence, contributing to the spread, intensity, and severity of fires. Therefore, the availability of accurate fuel data at different spatial and temporal scales is needed for fire management applications, including fire behavior and danger prediction, fire fighting, fire effects simulation, and ecosystem simulation modeling. In this context, the main aims of our work are to describe the vegetation parameters involved in combustion processes and develop fire behavior fuel maps. The overall work plan is based firstly on the identification and description of the different fuel types mainly affected by fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) and Corsica (France) Islands, and secondly on the clusterization of the selected fuel types in relation to their potential fire behavior. In the first part of the work, the available time series of fire event perimeters and the land use map data were analyzed with the purpose of identifying the main land use types affected by fires. Thus, field sampling sites were randomly identified on the selected vegetation types and several fuel variables were collected (live and dead fuel load partitioned following Deeming et al., (1977), depth of fuel layer, plant cover, surface area-to-volume ratio, heat content). In the second part of the work, the potential fire behavior for every experimental site was simulated using BEHAVE fire behavior prediction system (Andrews, 1989) and experimental fuel data. Fire behavior was simulated by setting different weather scenarios representing the most frequent summer meteorological conditions. The simulation outputs (fireline intensity, rate of spread, flame length) were then analyzed for clustering the different fuel types in relation to their potential fire behavior. The results of this analysis can be used to produce fire behavior fuel maps that are important tools in evaluating fire hazard and risk for land management planning, locating and rating fuel treatments, and aiding in environmental assessments and fire danger programs modeling. This work is supported by FUME Project FP7-ENV-2009-1, Grant Agreement Number 243888 and Proterina-C Project, EU Italia-Francia Marittimo 2007-2013 Programme.

Field test of optical and electrical fire detectors in simulated fire scenes in a cable tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Dian; Ding, Hongjun; Wang, Dorothy Y.; Jiang, Desheng

2014-06-01

This paper presents the testing results of three types of fire detectors: electrical heat sensing cable, optical fiber Raman temperature sensing detector, and optical fiber Bragg grating (FBG) temperature sensing detector, in two simulated fire scenes in a cable tunnel. In the small-scale fire with limited thermal radiation and no flame, the fire alarm only comes from the heat sensors which directly contact with the heat source. In the large-scale fire with about 5 °C/min temperature rising speed within a 3-m span, the fire alarm response time of the fiber Raman sensor and FBG sensors was about 30 seconds. The test results can be further used for formulating regulation for early fire detection in cable tunnels.

Detection and Characterization of Low Temperature Peat Fires during the 2015 Fire Catastrophe in Indonesia Using a New High-Sensitivity Fire Monitoring Satellite Sensor (FireBird)

PubMed Central

Atwood, Elizabeth C.; Englhart, Sandra; Lorenz, Eckehard; Halle, Winfried; Wiedemann, Werner; Siegert, Florian

2016-01-01

Vast and disastrous fires occurred on Borneo during the 2015 dry season, pushing Indonesia into the top five carbon emitting countries. The region was affected by a very strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate phenomenon, on par with the last severe event in 1997/98. Fire dynamics in Central Kalimantan were investigated using an innovative sensor offering higher sensitivity to a wider range of fire intensities at a finer spatial resolution (160 m) than heretofore available. The sensor is onboard the TET-1 satellite, part of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) FireBird mission. TET-1 images (acquired every 2–3 days) from the middle infrared were used to detect fires continuously burning for almost three weeks in the protected peatlands of Sebangau National Park as well as surrounding areas with active logging and oil palm concessions. TET-1 detection capabilities were compared with MODIS active fire detection and Landsat burned area algorithms. Fire dynamics, including fire front propagation speed and area burned, were investigated. We show that TET-1 has improved detection capabilities over MODIS in monitoring low-intensity peatland fire fronts through thick smoke and haze. Analysis of fire dynamics revealed that the largest burned areas resulted from fire front lines started from multiple locations, and the highest propagation speeds were in excess of 500 m/day (all over peat > 2m deep). Fires were found to occur most often in concessions that contained drainage infrastructure but were not cleared prior to the fire season. Benefits of implementing this sensor system to improve current fire management techniques are discussed. Near real-time fire detection together with enhanced fire behavior monitoring capabilities would not only improve firefighting efforts, but also benefit analysis of fire impact on tropical peatlands, greenhouse gas emission estimations as well as mitigation measures to reduce severe fire events in the future. PMID:27486664

Detection and Characterization of Low Temperature Peat Fires during the 2015 Fire Catastrophe in Indonesia Using a New High-Sensitivity Fire Monitoring Satellite Sensor (FireBird).

PubMed

Atwood, Elizabeth C; Englhart, Sandra; Lorenz, Eckehard; Halle, Winfried; Wiedemann, Werner; Siegert, Florian

2016-01-01

Vast and disastrous fires occurred on Borneo during the 2015 dry season, pushing Indonesia into the top five carbon emitting countries. The region was affected by a very strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate phenomenon, on par with the last severe event in 1997/98. Fire dynamics in Central Kalimantan were investigated using an innovative sensor offering higher sensitivity to a wider range of fire intensities at a finer spatial resolution (160 m) than heretofore available. The sensor is onboard the TET-1 satellite, part of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) FireBird mission. TET-1 images (acquired every 2-3 days) from the middle infrared were used to detect fires continuously burning for almost three weeks in the protected peatlands of Sebangau National Park as well as surrounding areas with active logging and oil palm concessions. TET-1 detection capabilities were compared with MODIS active fire detection and Landsat burned area algorithms. Fire dynamics, including fire front propagation speed and area burned, were investigated. We show that TET-1 has improved detection capabilities over MODIS in monitoring low-intensity peatland fire fronts through thick smoke and haze. Analysis of fire dynamics revealed that the largest burned areas resulted from fire front lines started from multiple locations, and the highest propagation speeds were in excess of 500 m/day (all over peat > 2m deep). Fires were found to occur most often in concessions that contained drainage infrastructure but were not cleared prior to the fire season. Benefits of implementing this sensor system to improve current fire management techniques are discussed. Near real-time fire detection together with enhanced fire behavior monitoring capabilities would not only improve firefighting efforts, but also benefit analysis of fire impact on tropical peatlands, greenhouse gas emission estimations as well as mitigation measures to reduce severe fire events in the future.

Preliminary simulations of the large-scale environment during the FIRE cirrus IFO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Westphal, Douglas L.; Toon, Owen B.

1990-01-01

Large scale forcing (scales greater than 500 km) is the dominant factor in the generation, maintenance, and dissipation of cirrus cloud systems. However, the analyses of data acquired during the first Cirrus IFO have highlighted the importance of mesoscale processes (scales of 20 to 500 km) to the development of cirrus cloud systems. Unfortunately, Starr and Wylie found that the temporal and spatial resolution of the standard and supplemental rawinsonde data were insufficient to allow an explanation of all of the mesoscale cloud features that were present on the 27 to 28 Oct. 1986. It is described how dynamic initialization, or 4-D data assimilation (FDDA) can provide a method to address this problem. The first steps towards application of FDDA to FIRE are also described.

[Digital signal processing of a novel neuron discharge model stimulation strategy for cochlear implants].

PubMed

Yang, Yiwei; Xu, Yuejin; Miu, Jichang; Zhou, Linghong; Xiao, Zhongju

2012-10-01

To apply the classic leakage integrate-and-fire models, based on the mechanism of the generation of physiological auditory stimulation, in the information processing coding of cochlear implants to improve the auditory result. The results of algorithm simulation in digital signal processor (DSP) were imported into Matlab for a comparative analysis. Compared with CIS coding, the algorithm of membrane potential integrate-and-fire (MPIF) allowed more natural pulse discharge in a pseudo-random manner to better fit the physiological structures. The MPIF algorithm can effectively solve the problem of the dynamic structure of the delivered auditory information sequence issued in the auditory center and allowed integration of the stimulating pulses and time coding to ensure the coherence and relevance of the stimulating pulse time.

Simulating dynamical features of escape panic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helbing, Dirk; Farkas, Illés; Vicsek, Tamás

2000-09-01

One of the most disastrous forms of collective human behaviour is the kind of crowd stampede induced by panic, often leading to fatalities as people are crushed or trampled. Sometimes this behaviour is triggered in life-threatening situations such as fires in crowded buildings; at other times, stampedes can arise during the rush for seats or seemingly without cause. Although engineers are finding ways to alleviate the scale of such disasters, their frequency seems to be increasing with the number and size of mass events. But systematic studies of panic behaviour and quantitative theories capable of predicting such crowd dynamics are rare. Here we use a model of pedestrian behaviour to investigate the mechanisms of (and preconditions for) panic and jamming by uncoordinated motion in crowds. Our simulations suggest practical ways to prevent dangerous crowd pressures. Moreover, we find an optimal strategy for escape from a smoke-filled room, involving a mixture of individualistic behaviour and collective `herding' instinct.

Numerical study of the interaction between a head fire and a backfire propagating in grassland.

Treesearch

Dominique Morvan; Sofiane Meradji; William Mell

2011-01-01

One of the objectives of this paper was to simulate numerically the interaction between two line fires ignited in a grassland, on a flat terrain, perpendicularly to the wind direction, in such a way that the two fire fronts (a head fire and a backfire) propagated in opposite directions parallel to the wind. The numerical simulations were conducted in 3-0 using the new...

Cirrus cloud development in a mobile upper tropospheric trough: The November 26th FIRE cirrus case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mace, Gerald G.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

1993-01-01

The period from 18 UTC 26 Nov. 1991 to roughly 23 UTC 26 Nov. 1991 is one of the study periods of the FIRE (First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Regional Experiment) 2 field campaign. The middle and upper tropospheric cloud data that was collected during this time allowed FIRE scientists to learn a great deal about the detailed structure, microphysics, and radiative characteristics of the mid latitude cirrus that occurred during that time. Modeling studies that range from the microphysical to the mesoscale are now underway attempting to piece the detailed knowledge of this cloud system into a coherent picture of the atmospheric processes important to cirrus cloud development and maintenance. An important component of the modeling work, either as an input parameter in the case of cloud-scale models, or as output in the case of meso and larger scale models, is the large scale forcing of the cloud system. By forcing we mean the synoptic scale vertical motions and moisture budget that initially send air parcels ascending and supply the water vapor to allow condensation during ascent. Defining this forcing from the synoptic scale to the cloud scale is one of the stated scientific objectives of the FIRE program. From the standpoint of model validation, it is also necessary that the vertical motions and large scale moisture budget of the case studies be derived from observations. It is considered important that the models used to simulate the observed cloud fields begin with the correct dynamics and that the dynamics be in the right place for the right reasons.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zitney, S.E.

This paper highlights the use of the CAPE-OPEN (CO) standard interfaces in the Advanced Process Engineering Co-Simulator (APECS) developed at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). The APECS system uses the CO unit operation, thermodynamic, and reaction interfaces to provide its plug-and-play co-simulation capabilities, including the integration of process simulation with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. APECS also relies heavily on the use of a CO COM/CORBA bridge for running process/CFD co-simulations on multiple operating systems. For process optimization in the face of multiple and some time conflicting objectives, APECS offers stochastic modeling and multi-objective optimization capabilities developed to complymore » with the CO software standard. At NETL, system analysts are applying APECS to a wide variety of advanced power generation systems, ranging from small fuel cell systems to commercial-scale power plants including the coal-fired, gasification-based FutureGen power and hydrogen production plant.« less

Modeling aeolian transport in response to succession, disturbance and future climate: Dynamic long-term risk assessment for contaminant redistribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breshears, D.D.; Kirchner, T.B.; Whicker, J.J.; Field, J.P.; Allen, Craig D.

2012-01-01

Aeolian sediment transport is a fundamental process redistributing sediment, nutrients, and contaminants in dryland ecosystems. Over time frames of centuries or longer, horizontal sediment fluxes and associated rates of contaminant transport are likely to be influenced by succession, disturbances, and changes in climate, yet models of horizontal sediment transport that account for these fundamental factors are lacking, precluding in large part accurate assessment of human health risks associated with persistent soil-bound contaminants. We present a simple model based on empirical measurements of horizontal sediment transport (predominantly saltation) to predict potential contaminant transport rates for recently disturbed sites such as a landfill cover. Omnidirectional transport is estimated within vegetation that changes using a simple Markov model that simulates successional trajectory and considers three types of short-term disturbances (surface fire, crown fire, and drought-induced plant mortality) under current and projected climates. The model results highlight that movement of contaminated soil is sensitive to vegetation dynamics and increases substantially (e.g., > fivefold) when disturbance and/or future climate are considered. The time-dependent responses in horizontal sediment fluxes and associated contaminant fluxes were sensitive to variability in the timing of disturbance, with longer intervals between disturbance allowing woody plants to become dominant and crown fire and drought abruptly reducing woody plant cover. Our results, which have direct implications for contaminant transport and landfill management in the specific context of our assessment, also have general relevance because they highlight the need to more fully account for vegetation dynamics, disturbance, and changing climate in aeolian process studies.

Modelling the impacts of reoccurring fires in tropical savannahs using Biome-BGC.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, Charlotte; Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan

2010-05-01

Fires are a dominant feature of tropical savannahs and have occurred throughout history by natural as well as human-induced means. These fires have a profound influence on the landscape in terms of flux dynamics and vegetative species composition. This study attempts to understand the impacts of fire regimes on flux dynamics and vegetation composition in savannahs using the Biome-BGC model. The Batéké Plateau, Gabon - an area of savannah grasslands in the Congo basin, serves as a case-study. To achieve model validation for savannahs, data sets from stands with differing levels of past burning are used. It is hypothesised that the field measurements from those stands with lower-levels of past burning will correlate with the Biome-BGC model output, meaning that the model is validated for the savannah excluding fire regimes. However, in reality, fire is frequent in the savannah. Data on past fire events are available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to provide the fire regimes of the model. As the field data-driven measurements of the burnt stands are influenced by fire in the savannah, this will therefore result in a Biome-BGC model validated for the impacts of fire on savannah ecology. The validated model can then be used to predict the savannah's flux dynamics under the fire scenarios expected with climate and/or human impact change.

A Markov model for the temporal dynamics of balanced random networks of finite size

PubMed Central

Lagzi, Fereshteh; Rotter, Stefan

2014-01-01

The balanced state of recurrent networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons is characterized by fluctuations of population activity about an attractive fixed point. Numerical simulations show that these dynamics are essentially nonlinear, and the intrinsic noise (self-generated fluctuations) in networks of finite size is state-dependent. Therefore, stochastic differential equations with additive noise of fixed amplitude cannot provide an adequate description of the stochastic dynamics. The noise model should, rather, result from a self-consistent description of the network dynamics. Here, we consider a two-state Markovian neuron model, where spikes correspond to transitions from the active state to the refractory state. Excitatory and inhibitory input to this neuron affects the transition rates between the two states. The corresponding nonlinear dependencies can be identified directly from numerical simulations of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons, discretized at a time resolution in the sub-millisecond range. Deterministic mean-field equations, and a noise component that depends on the dynamic state of the network, are obtained from this model. The resulting stochastic model reflects the behavior observed in numerical simulations quite well, irrespective of the size of the network. In particular, a strong temporal correlation between the two populations, a hallmark of the balanced state in random recurrent networks, are well represented by our model. Numerical simulations of such networks show that a log-normal distribution of short-term spike counts is a property of balanced random networks with fixed in-degree that has not been considered before, and our model shares this statistical property. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the flow from simulated time series suggests that the mean-field dynamics of finite-size networks are essentially of Wilson-Cowan type. We expect that this novel nonlinear stochastic model of the interaction between neuronal populations also opens new doors to analyze the joint dynamics of multiple interacting networks. PMID:25520644

Intrapsychic dynamics, behavioral manifestations, and related interventions with youthful fire setters.

PubMed

Williams, Dian L; Clements, Paul T

2007-01-01

Fire setting in youth has often been overlooked and misunderstood as a coping skill for expressing rage. The act of deliberate fire setting, if uninterrupted, may continue throughout an individual's lifetime. Forensic examiners, mental health care providers, and criminal justice professionals can help guide referral and treatment through better understanding of behaviors and intrapsychic dynamics.

Simulation of the Intercontinental Transport, Aging, and Removal of a Boreal Fire Smoke Plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghan, S. J.; Chapman, E. G.; Easter, R. C.; Reid, J. S.; Justice, C.

2003-12-01

Back trajectories suggest that an elevated absorbing aerosol plume observed over Oklahoma in May 2003 can be traced to intense forest fires in Siberia two weeks earlier. The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) product is used to estimate smoke emissions from those fires. The Model for Integrated Research on Atmospheric Model Exchanges (MIRAGE) is used to simulate the transport, aging, radiative properties, and removal of the aerosol. The simulated aerosol optical depth is compared with satellite retrievals, and the vertical structure of the plume is compared with in situ measurements. Sensitivity experiments are performed to determine the sensitivity of the simulated plume to uncertainty in the emissions vertical profile, mass flux, size distribution, and composition.

Overview of the 2013 FireFlux II grass fire field experiment

Treesearch

C.B. Clements; B. Davis; D. Seto; J. Contezac; A. Kochanski; J.-B. Fillipi; N. Lareau; B. Barboni; B. Butler; S. Krueger; R. Ottmar; R. Vihnanek; W.E. Heilman; J. Flynn; M.A. Jenkins; J. Mandel; C. Teske; D. Jimenez; J. O' Brien; B. Lefer

2014-01-01

In order to better understand the dynamics of fire-atmosphere interactions and the role of micrometeorology on fire behaviour the FireFlux campaign was conducted in 2006 on a coastal tall-grass prairie in southeast Texas, USA. The FireFlux campaign dataset has become the international standard for evaluating coupled fire-atmosphere model systems. While FireFlux is one...

A model of metastable dynamics during ongoing and evoked cortical activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Camera, Giancarlo

The dynamics of simultaneously recorded spike trains in alert animals often evolve through temporal sequences of metastable states. Little is known about the network mechanisms responsible for the genesis of such sequences, or their potential role in neural coding. In the gustatory cortex of alert rates, state sequences can be observed also in the absence of overt sensory stimulation, and thus form the basis of the so-called `ongoing activity'. This activity is characterized by a partial degree of coordination among neurons, sharp transitions among states, and multi-stability of single neurons' firing rates. A recurrent spiking network model with clustered topology can account for both the spontaneous generation of state sequences and the (network-generated) multi-stability. In the model, each network state results from the activation of specific neural clusters with potentiated intra-cluster connections. A mean field solution of the model shows a large number of stable states, each characterized by a subset of simultaneously active clusters. The firing rate in each cluster during ongoing activity depends on the number of active clusters, so that the same neuron can have different firing rates depending on the state of the network. Because of dense intra-cluster connectivity and recurrent inhibition, in finite networks the stable states lose stability due to finite size effects. Simulations of the dynamics show that the model ensemble activity continuously hops among the different states, reproducing the ongoing dynamics observed in the data. Moreover, when probed with external stimuli, the model correctly predicts the quenching of single neuron multi-stability into bi-stability, the reduction of dimensionality of the population activity, the reduction of trial-to-trial variability, and a potential role for metastable states in the anticipation of expected events. Altogether, these results provide a unified mechanistic model of ongoing and evoked cortical dynamics. NSF IIS-1161852, NIDCD K25-DC013557, NIDCD R01-DC010389.

Southwestern Oregon's Biscuit Fire: An Analysis of Forest Resources, Fire Severity, and Fire Hazard

Treesearch

David L. Azuma; Glenn A. Christensen

2005-01-01

This study compares pre-fire field inventory data (collected from 1993 to 1997) in relation to post-fire mapped fire severity classes and the Fire and Fuels Extension of the Forest Vegetation Simulator growth and yield model measures of fire hazard for the portion of the Siskiyou National Forest in the 2002 Biscuit fire perimeter of southwestern Oregon. Post-fire...

In situ Micrometeorological Measurements during RxCADRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clements, C. B.; Hiers, J. K.; Strenfel, S. J.

2009-12-01

The Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiment (RxCADRE) was a collaborative research project designed to fully instrument prescribed fires in the Southeastern United States. Data were collected on pre-burn fuel loads, post burn consumption, ambient weather, in situ atmospheric dynamics, plume dynamics, radiant heat release (both from in-situ and remote sensors), in-situ fire behavior, and select fire effects. The sampling was conducted at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, and the Joseph W. Jones Ecological Research Center in Newton, Georgia, from February 29 to March 6, 2008. Data were collected on 5 prescribed burns, totaling 4458 acres. The largest aerial ignition totaled 2,290 acres and the smallest ground ignition totaled 104 acres. Quantifying fire-atmospheric interactions is critical for understanding wildland fire dynamics and enhancing modeling of smoke plumes. During Rx-CADRE, atmospheric soundings using radiosondes were made at each burn prior to ignition. In situ micrometeorological measurements were made within each burn unit using five portable, 10-m towers equipped with sonic and prop anemometers, fine-wire thermocouples, and a carbon dioxide probes. The towers were arranged within the burn units to capture the wind and temperature fields as the fire front and plume passed the towers. Due to the interaction of fire lines following ignition, several of the fire fronts that passed the towers were backing fires and thus less intense. Preliminary results indicate that the average vertical velocities associated with the fire front passage were on the order of 3-5 m s-1 and average plume temperatures were on the order of 30-50 °C above ambient. During two of the experimental burns, radiosondes were released into the fire plumes to determine the vertical structure of the plume temperature, humidity, and winds. A radiosonde released into the plume during the burn conducted on 3 March 2008 indicated a definite plume boundary in the potential temperature and dew point temperature structure. The plume height immediately downwind of the fire front was approximately 150 m AGL and heating within this layer was on the order of 3 K. One interesting feature of the plume was the enhanced wind velocity at the top of the plume. Winds increased by 2 m s-1 in a shallow layer at the very top of the plume boundary indicating enhanced acceleration due to the increase in buoyancy. This experience highlights the dynamism of interacting fire lines within prescribed burns as well as the difficulty of measuring fire-atmospheric interactions on large prescribed fire ignitions.

46 CFR 12.602 - Basic training.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...) Swimming while wearing a lifejacket. (v) Keeping afloat without a lifejacket. (2) Fire prevention and... extinguishers. (ii) Extinguishing smaller fires. e.g., electrical fires, oil fires, and propane fires. (iii... firefighting agent in an accommodation room or simulated engine room with fire and heavy smoke. (vii...

Influence of savanna fire on Australian monsoon season precipitation and circulation as simulated using a distributed computing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Amanda H.; Abramson, David; Görgen, Klaus; Beringer, Jason; Uotila, Petteri

2007-10-01

Fires in the Australian savanna have been hypothesized to affect monsoon evolution, but the hypothesis is controversial and the effects have not been quantified. A distributed computing approach allows the development of a challenging experimental design that permits simultaneous variation of all fire attributes. The climate model simulations are distributed around multiple independent computer clusters in six countries, an approach that has potential for a range of other large simulation applications in the earth sciences. The experiment clarifies that savanna burning can shape the monsoon through two mechanisms. Boundary-layer circulation and large-scale convergence is intensified monotonically through increasing fire intensity and area burned. However, thresholds of fire timing and area are evident in the consequent influence on monsoon rainfall. In the optimal band of late, high intensity fires with a somewhat limited extent, it is possible for the wet season to be significantly enhanced.

Plant toxins and trophic cascades alter fire regime and succession on a boral forest landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, Zhilan; Alfaro-Murillo, Jorge A.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Schmidt, Jennifer; Barga, Matthew; Zheng, Yiqiang; Ahmad Tamrin, Muhammad Hanis B.; Olson, Mark; Glaser, Tim; Kielland, Knut; Chapin, F. Stuart; Bryant, John

2012-01-01

Two models were integrated in order to study the effect of plant toxicity and a trophic cascade on forest succession and fire patterns across a boreal landscape in central Alaska. One of the models, ALFRESCO, is a cellular automata model that stochastically simulates transitions from spruce dominated 1 km2 spatial cells to deciduous woody vegetation based on stochastic fires, and from deciduous woody vegetation to spruce based on age of the cell with some stochastic variation. The other model, the ‘toxin-dependent functional response’ model (TDFRM) simulates woody vegetation types with different levels of toxicity, an herbivore browser (moose) that can forage selectively on these types, and a carnivore (wolf) that preys on the herbivore. Here we replace the simple succession rules in each ALFRESCO cell by plant–herbivore–carnivore dynamics from TDFRM. The central hypothesis tested in the integrated model is that the herbivore, by feeding selectively on low-toxicity deciduous woody vegetation, speeds succession towards high-toxicity evergreens, like spruce. Wolves, by keeping moose populations down, can help slow the succession. Our results confirmed this hypothesis for the model calibrated to the Tanana floodplain of Alaska. We used the model to estimate the effects of different levels of wolf control. Simulations indicated that management reductions in wolf densities could reduce the mean time to transition from deciduous to spruce by more than 15 years, thereby increasing landscape flammability. The integrated model can be useful in estimating ecosystem impacts of wolf control and moose harvesting in central Alaska.

Response sensitivity of barrel neuron subpopulations to simulated thalamic input.

PubMed

Pesavento, Michael J; Rittenhouse, Cynthia D; Pinto, David J

2010-06-01

Our goal is to examine the relationship between neuron- and network-level processing in the context of a well-studied cortical function, the processing of thalamic input by whisker-barrel circuits in rodent neocortex. Here we focus on neuron-level processing and investigate the responses of excitatory and inhibitory barrel neurons to simulated thalamic inputs applied using the dynamic clamp method in brain slices. Simulated inputs are modeled after real thalamic inputs recorded in vivo in response to brief whisker deflections. Our results suggest that inhibitory neurons require more input to reach firing threshold, but then fire earlier, with less variability, and respond to a broader range of inputs than do excitatory neurons. Differences in the responses of barrel neuron subtypes depend on their intrinsic membrane properties. Neurons with a low input resistance require more input to reach threshold but then fire earlier than neurons with a higher input resistance, regardless of the neuron's classification. Our results also suggest that the response properties of excitatory versus inhibitory barrel neurons are consistent with the response sensitivities of the ensemble barrel network. The short response latency of inhibitory neurons may serve to suppress ensemble barrel responses to asynchronous thalamic input. Correspondingly, whereas neurons acting as part of the barrel circuit in vivo are highly selective for temporally correlated thalamic input, excitatory barrel neurons acting alone in vitro are less so. These data suggest that network-level processing of thalamic input in barrel cortex depends on neuron-level processing of the same input by excitatory and inhibitory barrel neurons.

The simulation of air recirculation and fire/explosion phenomena within a semiconductor factory.

PubMed

I, Yet-Pole; Chiu, Yi-Long; Wu, Shi-Jen

2009-04-30

The semiconductor industry is the collection of capital-intensive firms that employ a variety of hazardous chemicals and engage in the design and fabrication of semiconductor devices. Owing to its processing characteristics, the fully confined structure of the fabrication area (fab) and the vertical airflow ventilation design restrict the applications of traditional consequence analysis techniques that are commonly used in other industries. The adverse situation also limits the advancement of a fire/explosion prevention design for the industry. In this research, a realistic model of a semiconductor factory with a fab, sub-fabrication area, supply air plenum, and return air plenum structures was constructed and the computational fluid dynamics algorithm was employed to simulate the possible fire/explosion range and its severity. The semiconductor factory has fan module units with high efficiency particulate air filters that can keep the airflow uniform within the cleanroom. This condition was modeled by 25 fans, three layers of porous ceiling, and one layer of porous floor. The obtained results predicted very well the real airflow pattern in the semiconductor factory. Different released gases, leak locations, and leak rates were applied to investigate their influence on the hazard range and severity. Common mitigation measures such as a water spray system and a pressure relief panel were also provided to study their potential effectiveness to relieve thermal radiation and overpressure hazards within a fab. The semiconductor industry can use this simulation procedure as a reference on how to implement a consequence analysis for a flammable gas release accident within an air recirculation cleanroom.

Fast numerical methods for simulating large-scale integrate-and-fire neuronal networks.

PubMed

Rangan, Aaditya V; Cai, David

2007-02-01

We discuss numerical methods for simulating large-scale, integrate-and-fire (I&F) neuronal networks. Important elements in our numerical methods are (i) a neurophysiologically inspired integrating factor which casts the solution as a numerically tractable integral equation, and allows us to obtain stable and accurate individual neuronal trajectories (i.e., voltage and conductance time-courses) even when the I&F neuronal equations are stiff, such as in strongly fluctuating, high-conductance states; (ii) an iterated process of spike-spike corrections within groups of strongly coupled neurons to account for spike-spike interactions within a single large numerical time-step; and (iii) a clustering procedure of firing events in the network to take advantage of localized architectures, such as spatial scales of strong local interactions, which are often present in large-scale computational models-for example, those of the primary visual cortex. (We note that the spike-spike corrections in our methods are more involved than the correction of single neuron spike-time via a polynomial interpolation as in the modified Runge-Kutta methods commonly used in simulations of I&F neuronal networks.) Our methods can evolve networks with relatively strong local interactions in an asymptotically optimal way such that each neuron fires approximately once in [Formula: see text] operations, where N is the number of neurons in the system. We note that quantifications used in computational modeling are often statistical, since measurements in a real experiment to characterize physiological systems are typically statistical, such as firing rate, interspike interval distributions, and spike-triggered voltage distributions. We emphasize that it takes much less computational effort to resolve statistical properties of certain I&F neuronal networks than to fully resolve trajectories of each and every neuron within the system. For networks operating in realistic dynamical regimes, such as strongly fluctuating, high-conductance states, our methods are designed to achieve statistical accuracy when very large time-steps are used. Moreover, our methods can also achieve trajectory-wise accuracy when small time-steps are used.

DEVELOPMENT OF USER-FRIENDLY SIMULATION SYSTEM OF EARTHQUAKE INDUCED URBAN SPREADING FIRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsujihara, Osamu; Gawa, Hidemi; Hayashi, Hirofumi

In the simulation of earthquake induced urban spreading fire, the produce of the analytical model of the target area is required as well as the analysis of spreading fire and the presentati on of the results. In order to promote the use of the simulation, it is important that the simulation system is non-intrusive and the analysis results can be demonstrated by the realistic presentation. In this study, the simulation system is developed based on the Petri-net algorithm, in which the easy operation can be realized in the modeling of the target area of the simulation through the presentation of analytical results by realistic 3-D animation.

Modelling above-ground carbon dynamics using multi-temporal airborne lidar: insights from a Mediterranean woodland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simonson, W.; Ruiz-Benito, P.; Valladares, F.; Coomes, D.

2016-02-01

Woodlands represent highly significant carbon sinks globally, though could lose this function under future climatic change. Effective large-scale monitoring of these woodlands has a critical role to play in mitigating for, and adapting to, climate change. Mediterranean woodlands have low carbon densities, but represent important global carbon stocks due to their extensiveness and are particularly vulnerable because the region is predicted to become much hotter and drier over the coming century. Airborne lidar is already recognized as an excellent approach for high-fidelity carbon mapping, but few studies have used multi-temporal lidar surveys to measure carbon fluxes in forests and none have worked with Mediterranean woodlands. We use a multi-temporal (5-year interval) airborne lidar data set for a region of central Spain to estimate above-ground biomass (AGB) and carbon dynamics in typical mixed broadleaved and/or coniferous Mediterranean woodlands. Field calibration of the lidar data enabled the generation of grid-based maps of AGB for 2006 and 2011, and the resulting AGB change was estimated. There was a close agreement between the lidar-based AGB growth estimate (1.22 Mg ha-1 yr-1) and those derived from two independent sources: the Spanish National Forest Inventory, and a tree-ring based analysis (1.19 and 1.13 Mg ha-1 yr-1, respectively). We parameterised a simple simulator of forest dynamics using the lidar carbon flux measurements, and used it to explore four scenarios of fire occurrence. Under undisturbed conditions (no fire) an accelerating accumulation of biomass and carbon is evident over the next 100 years with an average carbon sequestration rate of 1.95 Mg C ha-1 yr-1. This rate reduces by almost a third when fire probability is increased to 0.01 (fire return rate of 100 years), as has been predicted under climate change. Our work shows the power of multi-temporal lidar surveying to map woodland carbon fluxes and provide parameters for carbon dynamics models. Space deployment of lidar instruments in the near future could open the way for rolling out wide-scale forest carbon stock monitoring to inform management and governance responses to future environmental change.

Pattern Storage, Bifurcations, and Groupwise Correlation Structure of an Exactly Solvable Asymmetric Neural Network Model.

PubMed

Fasoli, Diego; Cattani, Anna; Panzeri, Stefano

2018-05-01

Despite their biological plausibility, neural network models with asymmetric weights are rarely solved analytically, and closed-form solutions are available only in some limiting cases or in some mean-field approximations. We found exact analytical solutions of an asymmetric spin model of neural networks with arbitrary size without resorting to any approximation, and we comprehensively studied its dynamical and statistical properties. The network had discrete time evolution equations and binary firing rates, and it could be driven by noise with any distribution. We found analytical expressions of the conditional and stationary joint probability distributions of the membrane potentials and the firing rates. By manipulating the conditional probability distribution of the firing rates, we extend to stochastic networks the associating learning rule previously introduced by Personnaz and coworkers. The new learning rule allowed the safe storage, under the presence of noise, of point and cyclic attractors, with useful implications for content-addressable memories. Furthermore, we studied the bifurcation structure of the network dynamics in the zero-noise limit. We analytically derived examples of the codimension 1 and codimension 2 bifurcation diagrams of the network, which describe how the neuronal dynamics changes with the external stimuli. This showed that the network may undergo transitions among multistable regimes, oscillatory behavior elicited by asymmetric synaptic connections, and various forms of spontaneous symmetry breaking. We also calculated analytically groupwise correlations of neural activity in the network in the stationary regime. This revealed neuronal regimes where, statistically, the membrane potentials and the firing rates are either synchronous or asynchronous. Our results are valid for networks with any number of neurons, although our equations can be realistically solved only for small networks. For completeness, we also derived the network equations in the thermodynamic limit of infinite network size and we analytically studied their local bifurcations. All the analytical results were extensively validated by numerical simulations.

Using simulated historical time series to prioritize fuel treatments on landscapes across the United States: The LANDFIRE prototype project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keane, Robert E.; Rollins, Matthew; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2007-01-01

Canopy and surface fuels in many fire-prone forests of the United States have increased over the last 70 years as a result of modern fire exclusion policies, grazing, and other land management activities. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act and National Fire Plan establish a national commitment to reduce fire hazard and restore fire-adapted ecosystems across the USA. The primary index used to prioritize treatment areas across the nation is Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) computed as departures of current conditions from the historical fire and landscape conditions. This paper describes a process that uses an extensive set of ecological models to map FRCC from a departure statistic computed from simulated time series of historical landscape composition. This mapping process uses a data-driven, biophysical approach where georeferenced field data, biogeochemical simulation models, and spatial data libraries are integrated using spatial statistical modeling to map environmental gradients that are then used to predict vegetation and fuels characteristics over space. These characteristics are then fed into a landscape fire and succession simulation model to simulate a time series of historical landscape compositions that are then compared to the composition of current landscapes to compute departure, and the FRCC values. Intermediate products from this process are then used to create ancillary vegetation, fuels, and fire regime layers that are useful in the eventual planning and implementation of fuel and restoration treatments at local scales. The complex integration of varied ecological models at different scales is described and problems encountered during the implementation of this process in the LANDFIRE prototype project are addressed.

Fire frequency drives decadal changes in soil carbon and nitrogen and ecosystem productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellegrini, Adam F. A.; Ahlström, Anders; Hobbie, Sarah E.; Reich, Peter B.; Nieradzik, Lars P.; Staver, A. Carla; Scharenbroch, Bryant C.; Jumpponen, Ari; Anderegg, William R. L.; Randerson, James T.; Jackson, Robert B.

2018-01-01

Fire frequency is changing globally and is projected to affect the global carbon cycle and climate. However, uncertainty about how ecosystems respond to decadal changes in fire frequency makes it difficult to predict the effects of altered fire regimes on the carbon cycle; for instance, we do not fully understand the long-term effects of fire on soil carbon and nutrient storage, or whether fire-driven nutrient losses limit plant productivity. Here we analyse data from 48 sites in savanna grasslands, broadleaf forests and needleleaf forests spanning up to 65 years, during which time the frequency of fires was altered at each site. We find that frequently burned plots experienced a decline in surface soil carbon and nitrogen that was non-saturating through time, having 36 per cent (±13 per cent) less carbon and 38 per cent (±16 per cent) less nitrogen after 64 years than plots that were protected from fire. Fire-driven carbon and nitrogen losses were substantial in savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests, but not in temperate and boreal needleleaf forests. We also observe comparable soil carbon and nitrogen losses in an independent field dataset and in dynamic model simulations of global vegetation. The model study predicts that the long-term losses of soil nitrogen that result from more frequent burning may in turn decrease the carbon that is sequestered by net primary productivity by about 20 per cent of the total carbon that is emitted from burning biomass over the same period. Furthermore, we estimate that the effects of changes in fire frequency on ecosystem carbon storage may be 30 per cent too low if they do not include multidecadal changes in soil carbon, especially in drier savanna grasslands. Future changes in fire frequency may shift ecosystem carbon storage by changing soil carbon pools and nitrogen limitations on plant growth, altering the carbon sink capacity of frequently burning savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests.

Fire frequency drives decadal changes in soil carbon and nitrogen and ecosystem productivity.

PubMed

Pellegrini, Adam F A; Ahlström, Anders; Hobbie, Sarah E; Reich, Peter B; Nieradzik, Lars P; Staver, A Carla; Scharenbroch, Bryant C; Jumpponen, Ari; Anderegg, William R L; Randerson, James T; Jackson, Robert B

2018-01-11

Fire frequency is changing globally and is projected to affect the global carbon cycle and climate. However, uncertainty about how ecosystems respond to decadal changes in fire frequency makes it difficult to predict the effects of altered fire regimes on the carbon cycle; for instance, we do not fully understand the long-term effects of fire on soil carbon and nutrient storage, or whether fire-driven nutrient losses limit plant productivity. Here we analyse data from 48 sites in savanna grasslands, broadleaf forests and needleleaf forests spanning up to 65 years, during which time the frequency of fires was altered at each site. We find that frequently burned plots experienced a decline in surface soil carbon and nitrogen that was non-saturating through time, having 36 per cent (±13 per cent) less carbon and 38 per cent (±16 per cent) less nitrogen after 64 years than plots that were protected from fire. Fire-driven carbon and nitrogen losses were substantial in savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests, but not in temperate and boreal needleleaf forests. We also observe comparable soil carbon and nitrogen losses in an independent field dataset and in dynamic model simulations of global vegetation. The model study predicts that the long-term losses of soil nitrogen that result from more frequent burning may in turn decrease the carbon that is sequestered by net primary productivity by about 20 per cent of the total carbon that is emitted from burning biomass over the same period. Furthermore, we estimate that the effects of changes in fire frequency on ecosystem carbon storage may be 30 per cent too low if they do not include multidecadal changes in soil carbon, especially in drier savanna grasslands. Future changes in fire frequency may shift ecosystem carbon storage by changing soil carbon pools and nitrogen limitations on plant growth, altering the carbon sink capacity of frequently burning savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests.

Fire and reduced vigor facilitate vegetation shifts: MC2 results for the conterminous US with CMIP5 climate futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D. M.; Ferschweiler, K.; Baker, B.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

Climate variability and a warming trend during the 21st century ensures fuel build-up and episodic catastrophic wildfires. We used downscaled (2.5 arcmin) CMIP5 climate futures from 20 models under RCP 8.5 to run the dynamic global vegetation model MC2 over the conterminous US and identify key drivers of land cover change. We show regional and temporal differences in the magnitude of projected C losses due to fire over the 21st century. We also look at the vigor (NPP/LAI) of forest lands and estimate the loss in C capture due to declines in production as well as the increase in heterotrophic respiration due to increased mortality. We compare simulated the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial biomes and the risk of carbon losses through disturbance. We quantify uncertainty in model results by showing the distribution of possible future impacts under 20 futures. We explore the effects of land use and highlight the challenges we met to simulate credible transient management practices throughout the 20th century and into the future.

Fire Technology Abstracts, volume 4, issue 1, August, 1981

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holtschlag, L. J.; Kuvshinoff, B. W.; Jernigan, J. B.

This bibliography contains over 400 citations with abstracts addressing various aspects of fire technology. Subjects cover the dynamics of fire, behavior and properties of materials, fire modeling and test burns, fire protection, fire safety, fire service organization, apparatus and equipment, fire prevention, suppression, planning, human behavior, medical problems, codes and standards, hazard identification, safe handling of materials, insurance, economics of loss and prevention, and more.

Climate change and long-term fire management impacts on Australian savannas.

PubMed

Scheiter, Simon; Higgins, Steven I; Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B

2015-02-01

Tropical savannas cover a large proportion of the Earth's land surface and many people are dependent on the ecosystem services that savannas supply. Their sustainable management is crucial. Owing to the complexity of savanna vegetation dynamics, climate change and land use impacts on savannas are highly uncertain. We used a dynamic vegetation model, the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (aDGVM), to project how climate change and fire management might influence future vegetation in northern Australian savannas. Under future climate conditions, vegetation can store more carbon than under ambient conditions. Changes in rainfall seasonality influence future carbon storage but do not turn vegetation into a carbon source, suggesting that CO₂ fertilization is the main driver of vegetation change. The application of prescribed fires with varying return intervals and burning season influences vegetation and fire impacts. Carbon sequestration is maximized with early dry season fires and long fire return intervals, while grass productivity is maximized with late dry season fires and intermediate fire return intervals. The study has implications for management policy across Australian savannas because it identifies how fire management strategies may influence grazing yield, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. This knowledge is crucial to maintaining important ecosystem services of Australian savannas. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Holocene fire activity and vegetation response in South-Eastern Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil-Romera, Graciela; Carrión, José S.; Pausas, Juli G.; Sevilla-Callejo, Miguel; Lamb, Henry F.; Fernández, Santiago; Burjachs, Francesc

2010-05-01

Since fire has been recognized as an essential disturbance in Mediterranean landscapes, the study of long-term fire ecology has developed rapidly. We have reconstructed a sequence of vegetation dynamics and fire changes across south-eastern Iberia by coupling records of climate, fire, vegetation and human activities. We calculated fire activity anomalies (FAAs) in relation to 3 ka cal BP for 10-8 ka cal BP, 6 ka cal BP, 4 ka cal BP and the present. For most of the Early to the Mid-Holocene uneven, but low fire events were the main vegetation driver at high altitudes where broadleaved and coniferous trees presented a highly dynamic post-fire response. At mid-altitudes in the mainland Segura Mountains, fire activity remained relatively stable, at similar levels to recent times. We hypothesize that coastal areas, both mountains and lowlands, were more fire-prone landscapes as biomass was more likely to have accumulated than in the inland regions, triggering regular fire events. The wet and warm phase towards the Mid-Holocene (between ca 8 and 6 ka cal BP) affected the whole region and promoted the spread of mesophytic forest co-existing with Pinus, as FAAs appear strongly negative at 6 ka cal BP, with a less important role of fire. Mid and Late Holocene landscapes were shaped by an increasing aridity trend and the rise of human occupation, especially in the coastal mountains where forest disappeared from ca 2 ka cal BP. Mediterranean-type vegetation (evergreen oaks and Pinus pinaster- halepensis types) showed the fastest post-fire vegetation dynamics over time.

Time series analysis of forest carbon dynamics: recovery of Pinus palustris physiology following a prescribed fire

Treesearch

G. Starr; C. L. Staudhammer; H. W. Loescher; R. Mitchell; A. Whelan; J. K. Hiers; J. J. O’Brien

2015-01-01

Frequency and intensity of fire determines the structure and regulates the function of savanna ecosystems worldwide, yet our understanding of prescribed fire impacts on carbon in these systems is rudimentary. We combined eddy covariance (EC) techniques and fuel consumption plots to examine the short-term response of longleaf pine forest carbon dynamics to one...

Prescribed fire, soil inorganic nitrogen dynamics, and plant responses in a semiarid grassland

Treesearch

David J. Augustine; Paul Brewer; Dana M. Blumenthal; Justin D. Derner; Joseph C. von Fischer

2014-01-01

In arid and semiarid ecosystems, fire can potentially affect ecosystem dynamics through changes in soil moisture, temperature, and nitrogen cycling, as well as through direct effects on plant meristem mortality. We examined effects of annual and triennial prescribed fires conducted in early spring on soil moisture, temperature, and N, plant growth, and plant N content...

Multiple UAV Cooperation for Wildfire Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zhongjie

Wildfires have been a major factor in the development and management of the world's forest. An accurate assessment of wildfire status is imperative for fire management. This thesis is dedicated to the topic of utilizing multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to cooperatively monitor a large-scale wildfire. This is achieved through wildfire spreading situation estimation based on on-line measurements and wise cooperation strategy to ensure efficiency. First, based on the understanding of the physical characteristics of the wildfire propagation behavior, a wildfire model and a Kalman filter-based method are proposed to estimate the wildfire rate of spread and the fire front contour profile. With the enormous on-line measurements from on-board sensors of UAVs, the proposed method allows a wildfire monitoring mission to benefit from on-line information updating, increased flexibility, and accurate estimation. An independent wildfire simulator is utilized to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Second, based on the filter analysis, wildfire spreading situation and vehicle dynamics, the influence of different cooperation strategies of UAVs to the overall mission performance is studied. The multi-UAV cooperation problem is formulated in a distributed network. A consensus-based method is proposed to help address the problem. The optimal cooperation strategy of UAVs is obtained through mathematical analysis. The derived optimal cooperation strategy is then verified in an independent fire simulation environment to verify its effectiveness.

Landscape fires dominate terrestrial natural aerosol - climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C.; Arnold, S.; Monks, S. A.; Asmi, A.; Paasonen, P.; Spracklen, D. V.

2017-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere is an important source of natural aerosol including landscape fire emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Atmospheric aerosol alters the Earth's climate by absorbing and scattering radiation (direct radiative effect; DRE) and by perturbing the properties of clouds (aerosol indirect effect; AIE). Natural aerosol sources are strongly controlled by, and can influence, climate; giving rise to potential natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. Earth System Models (ESMs) include a description of some of these natural aerosol-climate feedbacks, predicting substantial changes in natural aerosol over the coming century with associated radiative perturbations. Despite this, the sensitivity of natural aerosols simulated by ESMs to changes in climate or emissions has not been robustly tested against observations. Here we combine long-term observations of aerosol number and a global aerosol microphysics model to assess terrestrial natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. We find a strong positive relationship between the summertime anomaly in observed concentration of particles greater than 100 nm diameter and the anomaly in local air temperature. This relationship is reproduced by the model and driven by variability in dynamics and meteorology, as well as natural sources of aerosol. We use an offline radiative transfer model to determine radiative effects due to changes in two natural aerosol sources: landscape fire and biogenic SOA. We find that interannual variability in the simulated global natural aerosol radiative effect (RE) is negatively related to the global temperature anomaly. The magnitude of global aerosol-climate feedback (sum of DRE and AIE) is estimated to be -0.15 Wm-2 K-1 for landscape fire aerosol and -0.06 Wm-2 K-1 for biogenic SOA. These feedbacks are comparable in magnitude, but opposite in sign to the snow albedo feedback, highlighting the need for natural aerosol feedbacks to be included in climate simulations.

Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior

Treesearch

Russell A. Parsons; William E. Mell; Peter McCauley

2011-01-01

Crownfire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (...

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.

2015-12-01

Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.

Contribution of climate and fires to vegetation composition in the boreal forest of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venevsky, S.; Wu, C.; Sitch, S.

2017-12-01

Climate is well known as an important determinant of biogeography. Although climate is directly important for vegetation composition in the boreal forests, these ecosystems are strongly sensitive to an indirect effect of climate via fire disturbance. However, the driving balance of fire disturbance and climate on composition is poorly understood. In this study we quantitatively analyzed their individual contributions for the boreal forests of the Heilongjiang province, China and their response to climate change using four warming scenarios (+1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C). This study employs the statistical methods of Redundancy Analysis (RDA) and variation partitioning combined with simulation results from a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, SEVER-DGVM, and remote sensing datasets of global land cover (GLC2000) and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3). Results show that the vegetation distribution for the present day is mainly determined directly by climate (35%) rather than fire (1%-10.9%). However, with a future global warming of 1.5°C, local vegetation composition will be determined by fires rather than climate (36.3% > 29.3%). Above a 1.5°C warming, temperature will be more important than fires in regulating vegetation distribution although other factors like precipitation can also contribute. The spatial pattern in vegetation composition over the region, as evaluated by Moran's Eigenvector Map (MEM), has a significant impact on local vegetation coverage, i.e. composition at any individual location is highly related to that in its neighborhood. It represents the largest contribution to vegetation distribution in all scenarios, but will not change the driving balance between climate and fires. Our results are highly relevant for forest and wildfires' management.

Validation and Simulation of Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test - 3 - Modeling and Evaluating the Effect of Rainbird Water Deluge Inclusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strutzenberg, Louise L.; Putman, Gabriel C.

2011-01-01

The Ares I Scale Model Acoustics Test (ASMAT) is a series of live-fire tests of scaled rocket motors meant to simulate the conditions of the Ares I launch configuration. These tests have provided a well documented set of high fidelity measurements useful for validation including data taken over a range of test conditions and containing phenomena like Ignition Over-Pressure and water suppression of acoustics. Building on dry simulations of the ASMAT tests with the vehicle at 5 ft. elevation (100 ft. real vehicle elevation), wet simulations of the ASMAT test setup have been performed using the Loci/CHEM computational fluid dynamics software to explore the effect of rainbird water suppression inclusion on the launch platform deck. Two-phase water simulation has been performed using an energy and mass coupled lagrangian particle system module where liquid phase emissions are segregated into clouds of virtual particles and gas phase mass transfer is accomplished through simple Weber number controlled breakup and boiling models. Comparisons have been performed to the dry 5 ft. elevation cases, using configurations with and without launch mounts. These cases have been used to explore the interaction between rainbird spray patterns and launch mount geometry and evaluate the acoustic sound pressure level knockdown achieved through above-deck rainbird deluge inclusion. This comparison has been anchored with validation from live-fire test data which showed a reduction in rainbird effectiveness with the presence of a launch mount.

Three dimensional modeling of cirrus during the 1991 FIRE IFO 2: Detailed process study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric J.; Toon, Owen B.; Westphal, Douglas L.

1993-01-01

A three-dimensional model of cirrus cloud formation and evolution, including microphysical, dynamical, and radiative processes, was used to simulate cirrus observed in the FIRE Phase 2 Cirrus field program (13 Nov. - 7 Dec. 1991). Sulfate aerosols, solution drops, ice crystals, and water vapor are all treated as interactive elements in the model. Ice crystal size distributions are fully resolved based on calculations of homogeneous freezing of solution drops, growth by water vapor deposition, evaporation, aggregation, and vertical transport. Visible and infrared radiative fluxes, and radiative heating rates are calculated using the two-stream algorithm described by Toon et al. Wind velocities, diffusion coefficients, and temperatures were taken from the MAPS analyses and the MM4 mesoscale model simulations. Within the model, moisture is transported and converted to liquid or vapor by the microphysical processes. The simulated cloud bulk and microphysical properties are shown in detail for the Nov. 26 and Dec. 5 case studies. Comparisons with lidar, radar, and in situ data are used to determine how well the simulations reproduced the observed cirrus. The roles played by various processes in the model are described in detail. The potential modes of nucleation are evaluated, and the importance of small-scale variations in temperature and humidity are discussed. The importance of competing ice crystal growth mechanisms (water vapor deposition and aggregation) are evaluated based on model simulations. Finally, the importance of ice crystal shape for crystal growth and vertical transport of ice are discussed.

Exploring fire dynamics with BFAST approach: case studies in Sardinia, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quarfeld, Jamie; di Mauro, Biagio; Colombo, Roberto; Verbesselt, Jan

2016-04-01

The synergistic effect of wildfire and extreme post-fire climatic events, (e.g. droughts or torrential rainfall), may result in long windows of disturbance - challenging the overall resilience of Mediterranean ecosystems and communities. The notion that increased fire frequency and severity may reduce ecosystem resilience has received much attention in Mediterranean regions in recent decades. Careful evaluation of vegetation recovery and landscape regeneration after a fire event provides vital information useful in land management. In this study, an extension of Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST) is proposed as an ideal approach to monitor change and assess fire dynamics at the landscape level based on analysis of the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, TERRA) time series. To this end, satellite images of three vegetation indices (VIs), the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were used. The analysis was conducted on areas affected by wildfires in the Sardinia region (Italy) between 2007 and 2010. Some land surface (LS) descriptors (i.e. mean and maximum VI) and fire characteristics (e.g. pre-fire trend & VI, change magnitude, current VI) were extracted to characterize the post-fire evolution of each site within a fifteen-year period (2000-2015). Resilience was estimated using a classic linear function, whereby recovery rates were compared to regional climate data (e.g. water balance) and local landscape components (e.g.topography, land use and land cover). The methodology was applied according to land cover type (e.g. mixed forest, maquis, shrubland, pasture) within each fire site and highlighted the challenge of isolating effects and quantifying the role of fire regime characteristics on resilience in a dynamic way when considering large, heterogeneous areas. Preliminary findings can be outlined as follows: I. NBR showed it was most effective at detecting fire occurrence. EVI showed it was more sensitive to the influence of the Savitkzy-Golay smoothing filter than NBR or NDVI; II. The quantitative assessment of resilience for different land covers (maquis, mixed forest, shrubland) allows discrimination of diverse post-fire dynamics. Mixed forest showed an overall lower resilience compared to maquis and shrubland. Detection of post-fire breakpoints appears to occur in a similar time sequence with respect to both year of fire occurrence and land cover. III. The combined use of several climate and landscape components enables characterization of different features of post-fire dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem. In summary, the approach used in this study provides useful insight into complex post-fire vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean regions from a remote sensing perspective. Tailoring of the methodologies employed this study can inform a broad spectrum of forest and wildfire management activities, from monitoring and decision support during the fire season to long-term fuel management and landscape planning, with the general goal of reducing fire exposure and losses from future wildfires. Results can be expanded to include additional LS descriptors or soil geological aspects that contribute to a stronger integration of remote sensing data in operational natural resource management plans for ecosystem conservation and natural hazard prevention.

Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturtevant, Brian R.; Miranda, Brian R.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Wolter, Peter T.

2012-01-01

Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the relative strength of interactions between spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks and fire disturbances in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota (USA). Disturbance interactions were evaluated for two different scenarios: presettlement forests and fire regimes vs. contemporary forests and fire regimes. Forest composition under the contemporary scenario trended toward mixtures of deciduous species (primarily Betula papyrifera and Populus spp.) and shade-tolerant conifers (Picea mariana, Abies balsamea, Thuja occidentalis), with disturbances dominated by a combination of budworm defoliation and high-severity fires. The presettlement scenario retained comparatively more “big pines” (i.e., Pinus strobus, P. resinosa) and tamarack (L. laricina), and experienced less budworm disturbance and a comparatively less-severe fire regime. Spruce budworm disturbance decreased area burned and fire severity under both scenarios when averaged across the entire 300-year simulations. Contrary to past research, area burned and fire severity during outbreak decades were each similar to that observed in non-outbreak decades. Our analyses suggest budworm disturbances within forests of the BWCA have a comparatively weak effect on long-term forest composition due to a combination of characteristics. These include strict host specificity, fine-scaled patchiness created by defoliation damage, and advance regeneration of its primary host, balsam fir (A. balsamea) that allows its host to persist despite repeated disturbances. Understanding the nature of the three-way interaction between budworm, fire, and composition has important ramifications for both fire mitigation strategies and ecosystem restoration initiatives. We conclude that budworm disturbance can partially mitigate long-term future fire risk by periodically reducing live ladder fuel within the mixed forest types of the BWCA but will do little to reverse the compositional trends caused in part by reduced fire rotations.