A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

LaWen T. Hollingsworth; Laurie L. Kurth; Bernard R. Parresol; Roger D. Ottmar; Susan J. Prichard

2012-01-01

Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation...

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

2018-01-01

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: A comparison of two fire-vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Minchao; Knorr, Wolfgang; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schurgers, Guy; Camia, Andrea; Arneth, Almut

2015-11-01

Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semiempirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a process-based fire model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models differed notably with respect to the dominating drivers and underlying processes. Fire-vegetation interactions and socioeconomic effects emerged as important uncertainties for future burned area in some European regions. Burned area of eastern Europe increased in both models, pointing at an emerging new fire-prone region that should gain further attention for future fire management.

Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Taylor, Steve W.; Candau, Jean-Noël; Stralberg, Diana; Marshall, Ginny A.; Little, John M.; Flannigan, Mike D.

2017-02-01

In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating ‘spread days’ to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada’s forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.

Climate change and future wildfire in the western USA: what model projections do and don't tell us

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Littell, J. S.; McKenzie, D.; Cushman, S. A.; Wan, H. Y.

2017-12-01

We developed statistical climate-fire models describing area burned for 70 ecosections in the western U.S. Historically, these ecosections collectively represent a gradient of climate-fire relationships from purely fuel limited (characterized by antecedent positive water balance anomalies and/or negative energy balance anomalies) to purely flammability limited (characterized by antecedent negative water balance anomalies and/or positive energy balance anomalies). Sixty-eight ecosection linear models included significant climate predictors, and 56 ecosections satisfied regression diagnostics, yielding acceptable climate-fire models. There is considerable diversity in seasonality, dominant variables, and prevalence of lagged climatic terms in the climate-fire regression models, indicating variation in mechanisms of climate-fire linkages across ecosystems. This diversity, however, is not random - there is a clear pattern in the fuzzy set membership of the relative dominance of regression predictor variables. This pattern defines a fuel-flammability gradient of limitations, with a tendency toward warm season drought on the flammability end and a tendency toward antecedent moisture on the fuel end. Projected area burned under a multi-model composite future climate scenarios varies, with increasing area burned in 41 ecosections in the West by 2030-2059 (median 132% among 10 purely flammability limited ecosections, median 240% among 25 flammability limited systems with a fuel limitation component, and median 43% among 6 systems with equal control) but decreasing (median -119% among 13 fuel limited systems with a flammability component). For the period 2070-2099, the projected area burned increases much more in the flammability (769%) and flammability-fuel hybrid (442%) systems than those with joint control (139%), and continues to decrease (-178%) in fuel-flammability hybrid systems. Filtering the projected results with fire rotation limits projections biased high by the static assumptions of the statistical models. Exceedence probabilities for 95th%ile fire years increases for the 2040s and 2080s and are largest in exclusively flammability limited ecosections compared with other fuel controls.

Simulating fire and forest dynamics for a coordinated landscape fuel treatment project in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Brandon M. Collins; Scott L. Stephens; Gary B. Roller; John Battles

2011-01-01

We evaluate an actual landscape fuel treatment project that was designed by local U. S. Forest Service managers in the northern Sierra Nevada. We model the effects of this project at reducing landscape-level fire behavior at multiple time steps, up to nearly 30 yr beyond treatment implementation. Additionally, we modeled planned treatments under multiple diameter-...

Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States

Treesearch

LaWen Hollingsworth; James Menakis

2010-01-01

This project mapped wildland fire potential (WFP) for the conterminous United States by using the large fire simulation system developed for Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System. The large fire simulation system, referred to here as LFSim, consists of modules for weather generation, fire occurrence, fire suppression, and fire growth modeling. Weather was generated with...

Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Hamish; Evans, Jason P.

2018-05-01

High-resolution projections of climate change impacts on fire weather conditions in southeast Australia out to 2080 are presented. Fire weather is represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble. Changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from - 337 (- 21%) to + 657 (+ 24%) in coastal areas and - 237 (- 12%) to + 1143 (+ 26%) in inland areas. A similar spread is projected in extreme FFDI values. In coastal regions, the number of prescribed burning days is projected to change from - 11 to + 10 in autumn and - 10 to + 3 in spring. Across the ensemble, the most significant increases in fire weather and decreases in prescribed burn windows are projected to take place in spring. Partial bias correction of FFDI leads to similar projections but with a greater spread, particularly in extreme values. The partially bias-corrected FFDI performs similarly to uncorrected FFDI compared to the observed annual cumulative FFDI (ensemble root mean square error spans 540 to 1583 for uncorrected output and 695 to 1398 for corrected) but is generally worse for FFDI values above 50. This emphasizes the need to consider inter-variable relationships when bias-correcting for complex phenomena such as fire weather. There is considerable uncertainty in the future trajectory of fire weather in southeast Australia, including the potential for less prescribed burning days and substantially greater fire danger in spring. Selecting climate models on the basis of multiple criteria can lead to more informative projections and allow an explicit exploration of uncertainty.

Burn severity mapping using simulation modeling and satellite imagery

Treesearch

Eva C. Karau; Robert E. Keane

2010-01-01

Although burn severity maps derived from satellite imagery provide a landscape view of fire impacts, fire effects simulation models can provide spatial fire severity estimates and add a biotic context in which to interpret severity. In this project, we evaluated two methods of mapping burn severity in the context of rapid post-fire assessment for four wildfires in...

Impact of fire disturbance on soil thermal and carbon dynamics in Alaskan Tundra and Boreal forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Y.; Rastetter, E.; Shaver, G. R.; Rocha, A. V.

2012-12-01

In Alaska, fire disturbance is a major component influencing the soil water and energy balance in both tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. Fire-caused changes in soil environment further affect both above- and below-ground carbon cycles depending on different fire severities. Understanding the effects of fire disturbance on soil thermal change requires implicit modeling work on the post-fire soil thawing and freezing processes. In this study, we model the soil temperature profiles in multiple burned and non-burned sites using a well-developed soil thermal model which fully couples soil water and heat transport. The subsequent change in carbon dynamics is analyzed based on site level observations and simulations from the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model. With comparison between burned and non-burned sites, we compare and contrast fire effects on soil thermal and carbon dynamics in continuous permafrost (Anaktuvik fire in north slope), discontinuous permafrost (Erickson Creek fire at Hess Creek) and non-permafrost zone (Delta Junction fire in interior Alaska). Then we check the post-fire recovery of soil temperature profiles at sites with different fire severities in both tundra and boreal forest fire areas. We further project the future changes in soil thermal and carbon dynamics using projected climate data from Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning (SNAP). This study provides information to improve the understanding of fire disturbance on soil thermal and carbon dynamics and the consequent response under a warming climate.

Risk for large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2015-08-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on the number of large forest fires (over 10 ha fires) and burned area in Finland. For this purpose, we utilized a strong relationship between fire occurrence and the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) during 1996-2014. We used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. Our results also reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase in forest-fire danger. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is more important cause of fires.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sierra Thermal /Fluid Team

The SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego along with the SIERRA Participating Media Radiation Module: Syrinx, henceforth referred to as Fuego and Syrinx, respectively, are the key elements of the ASCI fire environment simulation project. The fire environment simulation project is directed at characterizing both open large-scale pool fires and building enclosure fires. Fuego represents the turbulent, buoyantly-driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, combustion, soot, and absorption coefficient model portion of the simulation software. Syrinx represents the participating-media thermal radiation mechanics. This project is an integral part of the SIERRA multi-mechanics software development project. Fuego depends heavily upon the coremore » architecture developments provided by SIERRA for massively parallel computing, solution adaptivity, and mechanics coupling on unstructured grids.« less

Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

Treesearch

Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

2016-01-01

Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

Climate and human intervention effects on future fire activity and consequences for air pollution across the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Val Martin, M.; Pierce, J. R.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Tilmes, S.; Vitt, F.

2016-12-01

Emissions of aerosols and gases from fires have been shown to adversely affect air quality across the world. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and anthropogenic activities. Current fire projections for the 21st century seem very uncertain, ranging from increasing to declining depending on the climate, land cover change and population growth scenarios used. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences on air quality, with focus on PM2.5 and surface O3 over regions vulnerable to fire. We use the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a process-based fire model to simulate emissions from agriculture, peatland, deforestation and landscape fires for present-day and throughout the current century. We consider two future Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios combined with population density changes predicted from Shared Socio-economic Pathways to project climate and demographic effects on fire activity and further consequences for future air quality.

Modeling Forest Composition and Carbon Dynamics Under Projected Climate-Fire Interactions in the Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, S.; Hurteau, M. D.; Westerling, A. L.

2014-12-01

The Sierra Nevada Mountains are occupied by a diversity of forest types that sort by elevation. The interaction of changing climate and altered disturbance regimes (e.g. fire) has the potential to drive changes in forest distribution as a function of species-specific response. Quantifying the effects of these drivers on species distributions and productivity under future climate-fire interactions is necessary for informing mitigation and adaptation efforts. In this study, we assimilated forest inventory and soil survey data and species life history traits into a landscape model, LANDIS-II, to quantify the response of forest dynamics to the interaction of climate change and large wildfire frequency in the Sierra Nevada. We ran 100-year simulations forced with historical climate and climate projections from three models (GFDL, CNRM and CCSM3) driven by the A2 emission scenario. We found that non-growing season NPP is greatly enhanced by 15%-150%, depending on the specific climate projection. The greatest increase occurs in subalpine forests. Species-specific response varied as a function of life history characteristics. The distribution of drought and fire-tolerant species, such as ponderosa pine, expanded by 7.3-9.6% from initial conditions, while drought and fire-intolerant species, such as white fir, showed little change in the absence of fire. Changes in wildfire size and frequency influence species distributions by altering the successional stage of burned patches. The range of responses to different climate models demonstrates the sensitivity of these forests to climate variability. The scale of climate projections relative to the scale of forest simulations presents a source of uncertainty, particularly at the ecotone between forest types and for identifying topographically mediated climate refugia. Improving simulations will likely require higher resolution climate projections.

Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

2013-12-01

Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience strong upslope shifting of open grassland, chaparral and hardwood types, which may be initiated by increased fire frequencies, particularly where fires have not recently burned within normal fire recurrence interval departures (FRID). An evaluation of four fire management strategies (business as usual; resist change; foster orderly change; protect vital resources) across four combinations of future climate and fire frequency found that no single management strategy was uniformly successful in protecting critical resources across the range of future conditions examined. This limitation is somewhat driven by current management constraints on the amount of management available to resource managers, which suggests management will need to use a triage approach to application of proactive fire management strategies, wherein MOC landscape projections can be used in decision support.

Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa.

PubMed

Wilson, Adam M; Latimer, Andrew M; Silander, John A

2015-07-21

Conservation of biodiversity and natural resources in a changing climate requires understanding what controls ecosystem resilience to disturbance. This understanding is especially important in the fire-prone Mediterranean systems of the world. The fire frequency in these systems is sensitive to climate, and recent climate change has resulted in more frequent fires over the last few decades. However, the sensitivity of postfire recovery and biomass/fuel load accumulation to climate is less well understood than fire frequency despite its importance in driving the fire regime. In this study, we develop a hierarchical statistical framework to model postfire ecosystem recovery using satellite-derived observations of vegetation as a function of stand age, topography, and climate. In the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, a fire-prone biodiversity hotspot, we found strong postfire recovery gradients associated with climate resulting in faster recovery in regions with higher soil fertility, minimum July (winter) temperature, and mean January (summer) precipitation. Projections using an ensemble of 11 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that warmer winter temperatures in 2080-2100 will encourage faster postfire recovery across the region, which could further increase fire frequency due to faster fuel accumulation. However, some models project decreasing precipitation in the western CFR, which would slow recovery rates there, likely reducing fire frequency through lack of fuel and potentially driving local biome shifts from fynbos shrubland to nonburning semidesert vegetation. This simple yet powerful approach to making inferences from large, remotely sensed datasets has potential for wide application to modeling ecosystem resilience in disturbance-prone ecosystems globally.

Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa

PubMed Central

Wilson, Adam M.; Latimer, Andrew M.; Silander, John A.

2015-01-01

Conservation of biodiversity and natural resources in a changing climate requires understanding what controls ecosystem resilience to disturbance. This understanding is especially important in the fire-prone Mediterranean systems of the world. The fire frequency in these systems is sensitive to climate, and recent climate change has resulted in more frequent fires over the last few decades. However, the sensitivity of postfire recovery and biomass/fuel load accumulation to climate is less well understood than fire frequency despite its importance in driving the fire regime. In this study, we develop a hierarchical statistical framework to model postfire ecosystem recovery using satellite-derived observations of vegetation as a function of stand age, topography, and climate. In the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, a fire-prone biodiversity hotspot, we found strong postfire recovery gradients associated with climate resulting in faster recovery in regions with higher soil fertility, minimum July (winter) temperature, and mean January (summer) precipitation. Projections using an ensemble of 11 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that warmer winter temperatures in 2080–2100 will encourage faster postfire recovery across the region, which could further increase fire frequency due to faster fuel accumulation. However, some models project decreasing precipitation in the western CFR, which would slow recovery rates there, likely reducing fire frequency through lack of fuel and potentially driving local biome shifts from fynbos shrubland to nonburning semidesert vegetation. This simple yet powerful approach to making inferences from large, remotely sensed datasets has potential for wide application to modeling ecosystem resilience in disturbance-prone ecosystems globally. PMID:26150521

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

PubMed

Gustine, David D; Brinkman, Todd J; Lindgren, Michael A; Schmidt, Jennifer I; Rupp, T Scott; Adams, Layne G

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

South American smoke coverage and flux estimations from the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE') system.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, J. S.; Westphal, D. L.; Christopher, S. A.; Prins, E. M.; Gasso, S.; Reid, E.; Theisen, M.; Schmidt, C. C.; Hunter, J.; Eck, T.

2002-05-01

The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE') project is a joint Navy, NOAA, NASA and university project to integrate satellite products with numerical aerosol models to produce a real time fire and emissions inventory. At the center of the program is the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF ABBA) which provides real-time fire products and the NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System to model smoke transport. In this presentation we give a brief overview of the system and methods, but emphasize new estimations of smoke coverage and emission fluxes from the South American continent. Temporal and smoke patterns compare reasonably well with AERONET and MODIS aerosol optical depth products for the 2000 and 2001 fire seasons. Fluxes are computed by relating NAAPS output fields and MODIS optical depth maps with modeled wind fields. Smoke emissions and transport fluxes out of the continent can then be estimated by perturbing the modeled emissions to gain agreement with the satellite and wind products. Regional smoke emissions are also presented for grass and forest burning.

Effects of Climate and Fuels Management on Wildfire Occurrence, Size, Severity and Emissions in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Fites, J. A.; Keyser, A.

2015-12-01

Annual wildfire burned area in federally managed Sierra Nevada forests has increased by more than 10,000 ha per decade since the early 1970s. At the same time, recent years have seen some extremely large fires compared to the historical record, with significant areas of moderate to high severity fire (e.g., McNally 2002, Rim 2013, King 2014 fires). Changes to fuels and fire regimes due to fire suppression and land use, as well as warming temperatures and the occurrence of drought, are thought to be significant factors contributing to increased risks of large, severe fires in Sierra Nevada forests. Over 70% of the vegetated area in federally managed forests in the Sierra Nevada is classified as having altered fuels and fire regimes, while average annual temperature in the Sierra Nevada has been above the long term mean for all but four years in the past two decades. As climate is expected to continue warming for decades to come, we explored fuels management scenarios as the primary tools available to modify risks of large, severe wildfires. We developed experimental statistical models of fire occurrence, fire size, and high severity burned area, to explore the interaction between climate and altered fuels conditions. These models were applied to historical climate conditions, a sample of future climate projections, and to both current fuels conditions and a range of scenarios for fuels treatments. Emissions from wildfires were estimated using the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Our models project that average annual burned area in the Sierra Nevada will more than double by mid-century. Similarly, particulate and other pollution emissions from Sierra Nevada wildfires are projected to more than double, even if future fire severity does not change. Fuels treatment scenarios significantly reduced simulated future burned area and emissions below untreated projections. High severity burned area responded to both climate and fuels treatments. A sensitivity analysis indicated that in areas where the fraction of highly altered fuels is high, successfully restoring fuels to prehistoric conditions could more than compensate for expected climate change effects on fire severity by mid-century.

Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegoke, J. O.

2015-12-01

Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego User Manual Version 4.46.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sierra Thermal/Fluid Team

2017-09-01

The SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego along with the SIERRA Participating Media Radiation Module: Syrinx, henceforth referred to as Fuego and Syrinx, respectively, are the key elements of the ASCI fire environment simulation project. The fire environment simulation project is directed at characterizing both open large-scale pool fires and building enclosure fires. Fuego represents the turbulent, buoyantly-driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, combustion, soot, and absorption coefficient model portion of the simulation software. Syrinx represents the participating-media thermal radiation mechanics. This project is an integral part of the SIERRA multi-mechanics software development project. Fuego depends heavily upon the coremore » architecture developments provided by SIERRA for massively parallel computing, solution adaptivity, and mechanics coupling on unstructured grids.« less

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego Theory Manual Version 4.44

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sierra Thermal /Fluid Team

2017-04-01

The SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego along with the SIERRA Participating Media Radiation Module: Syrinx, henceforth referred to as Fuego and Syrinx, respectively, are the key elements of the ASCI fire environment simulation project. The fire environment simulation project is directed at characterizing both open large-scale pool fires and building enclosure fires. Fuego represents the turbulent, buoyantly-driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, combustion, soot, and absorption coefficient model portion of the simulation software. Syrinx represents the participating-media thermal radiation mechanics. This project is an integral part of the SIERRA multi-mechanics software development project. Fuego depends heavily upon the coremore » architecture developments provided by SIERRA for massively parallel computing, solution adaptivity, and mechanics coupling on unstructured grids.« less

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego Theory Manual Version 4.46.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sierra Thermal/Fluid Team

The SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego along with the SIERRA Participating Media Radiation Module: Syrinx, henceforth referred to as Fuego and Syrinx, respectively, are the key elements of the ASCI fire environment simulation project. The fire environment simulation project is directed at characterizing both open large-scale pool fires and building enclosure fires. Fuego represents the turbulent, buoyantly-driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, combustion, soot, and absorption coefficient model portion of the simulation software. Syrinx represents the participating-media thermal radiation mechanics. This project is an integral part of the SIERRA multi-mechanics software development project. Fuego depends heavily upon the coremore » architecture developments provided by SIERRA for massively parallel computing, solution adaptivity, and mechanics coupling on unstructured grids.« less

Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century

PubMed Central

Westerling, Anthony L.; Turner, Monica G.; Smithwick, Erica A. H.; Romme, William H.; Ryan, Michael G.

2011-01-01

Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972–1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated and then used with downscaled (∼12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to <30 y from the historical 100–300 y for most of the GYE. Years without large fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire–climate–vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and may indicate similar changes for other subalpine forests. PMID:21788495

LANDFIRE: Collaboration for National Fire Fuel Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2006-01-01

The implementation of national fire management policies, such as the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forest Restoration Act, requires geospatial data of vegetation types and structure, wildland fuels, fire risks, and ecosystem fire regime conditions. Presently, no such data sets are available that can meet these requirements. As a result, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service and the Department of the Interior's land management bureaus (Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), and National Park Service (NPS)) have jointly sponsored LANDFIRE, a new research and development project. The primary objective of the project is to develop an integrated and repeatable methodology and produce vegetation, fire, and ecosystem information and predictive models for cost-effective national land management applications. The project is conducted collaboratively by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the USDA Forest Service, and The Nature Conservancy.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Climate Change Transforms Fire Regimes but Does not Eliminate Forest Carbon Sequestration in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henne, P. D.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Berryman, E.

2017-12-01

Annual area burned in the Rocky Mountains varies with climatic conditions. However, projecting long-term changes in wildfire presents an enduring challenge because climate also constrains vegetation and fuel availability. We combined an aridity-threshold fire model with the Landis-II dynamic landscape vegetation model (NECN extension) to project climate change impacts on vegetation, area burned, and ecosystem carbon balance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We developed a fire model that relates drought stress to area burned by quantifying an aridity threshold separating large and small years in 15 ecoregions in the Intermountain West. A significant positive correlation (r2 = 0.97) exists between mean fire-season aridity and ecoregion-specific aridity thresholds. We simulated vegetation and fire dynamics in the GYE at 250 m spatial resolution with Landis-II, using projections from five climate models and two emissions scenarios for the period 1980-2100 AD. We determined if each simulation year exceeded the regional aridity threshold, then randomly drew the number of fires and size of individual fires from fire-size distributions from large or small fire years. Burned area increases dramatically in most climate scenarios, especially after 2060, when most years exceed the aridity threshold. Productivity gains due to rising temperatures partially offset biomass lost to fire, but C stocks plateau or decline after 2060 in most simulations as burned area increases, and drought stress causes post-fire regeneration to decline at low elevations. However, species level changes (e.g. expansion by drought-tolerant Pseuodotsuga menziesii) help maintain productivity in sites where water becomes limiting. Fire-adapted Pinus contorta occupies less total area, but a greater proportion of remaining forests, and Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa significantly decline. Although fire and climate change will alter species distributions and forest structure, our results suggest that the GYE can maintain a C sink through 2100. However, C stocks will likely shift to higher elevations, and forests will be less resilient to disturbance, in a warmer future. Our landscape-level approach identifies regions likely to maintain high conservation value and ecosystem services under multiple climate scenarios.

Underground Coal-Fires in Xinjiang, China: A Continued Effort in Applying Geophysics to Solve a Local Problem and to Mitigate a Global Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuttke, M. W.; Halisch, M.; Tanner, D. C.; Cai, Z. Y.; Zeng, Q.; Wang, C.

2012-04-01

Spontaneous uncontrolled coal seam fires are a well known phenomenon that causes severe environmental problems and severe impact on natural coal reserves. Coal fires are a worldwide phenomenon, but in particular in Xinjiang, that covers 17.3 % of Chinas area and hosts approx 42 % of its coal resources. In Xinjiang since more than 50 years a rigorous strategy for fire fighting on local and regional scale is persued. The Xinjiang Coalfield Fire Fighting Bureau (FFB) has developed technologies and methods to deal with any known fire. Many fires have been extinguished already, but the problem is still there if not even growing. This problem is not only a problem for China due to the loss of valuable energy resources, but it is also a worldwide threat because of the generation of substantial amounts of greenhouse gases. Through the FFB, China is struggling to overcome this, but the activities could be much enhanced by the continuation of the already successful conjoint operations. The last ten years have seen two successful cooperative projects between China and Germany on the field of coal-fire fighting, namely the German Technical Cooperation Project on Coal Fire in Xinjiang and the Sino-German Coal Fire Research Initiative funded by the corresponding ministeries of both countries. A persistent task in the fire fighting is the identification and supervision of areas with higher risks for the ignition of coal fires, the exploration of already ignited fire zones to extinguish the fires and the monitoring of extinguished fires to detect as early as possible process that may foster re-ignition. This can be achieved by modeling both the structures and the processes that are involved. This has also been a promising part of the past cooperation projects, yet to be transformed into a standard application of fire fighting procedures. In this contribution we describe the plans for a new conjoint project between China and Germany where on the basis of field investigations and laboratory measurements realistic dynamical models of fire-zones are constructed to increase the understanding of particular coal-fires, to interpret the surface signatures of the coal-fire in terms of location and propagation and to estimate the output of hazardous exhaust products to evaluate the economic benefit of fire extinction.

Measurements, datasets and preliminary results from the RxCADRE project-2008, 2011 and 2012

Treesearch

Roger D. Ottmar; J. Kevin Hiers; Bret W. Butler; Craig B. Clements; Matthew B. Dickinson; Andrew T. Hudak; Joseph O' Brien; Brian E. Potter; Eric M. Rowell; Tara M. Strand; Thomas J. Zajkowski

2016-01-01

The lack of independent, quality-assured field data prevents scientists from effectively evaluating and advancing wildland fire models. To rectify this, scientists and technicians convened in the southeastern United States in 2008, 2011 and 2012 to collect wildland fire data in six integrated core science disciplines defined by the fire modelling community. These were...

Modeling hazardous fire potential within a completed fuel treatment network in the northern Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Brandon M. Collins; Heather A. Kramer; Kurt Menning; Colin Dillingham; David Saah; Peter A. Stine; Scott L. Stephens

2013-01-01

We built on previous work by performing a more in-depth examination of a completed landscape fuel treatment network. Our specific objectives were: (1) model hazardous fire potential with and without the treatment network, (2) project hazardous fire potential over several decades to assess fuel treatment network longevity, and (3) assess fuel treatment effectiveness and...

Spatial fuel data products of the LANDFIRE Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reeves, M.C.; Ryan, K.C.; Rollins, M.G.; Thompson, T.G.

2009-01-01

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) Project is mapping wildland fuels, vegetation, and fire regime characteristics across the United States. The LANDFIRE project is unique because of its national scope, creating an integrated product suite at 30-m spatial resolution and complete spatial coverage of all lands within the 50 states. Here we describe development of the LANDFIRE wildland fuels data layers for the conterminous 48 states: surface fire behavior fuel models, canopy bulk density, canopy base height, canopy cover, and canopy height. Surface fire behavior fuel models are mapped by developing crosswalks to vegetation structure and composition created by LANDFIRE. Canopy fuels are mapped using regression trees relating field-referenced estimates of canopy base height and canopy bulk density to satellite imagery, biophysical gradients and vegetation structure and composition data. Here we focus on the methods and data used to create the fuel data products, discuss problems encountered with the data, provide an accuracy assessment, demonstrate recent use of the data during the 2007 fire season, and discuss ideas for updating, maintaining and improving LANDFIRE fuel data products.

The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, J. S.; Prins, E. M.; Westphal, D.; Richardson, K.; Christopher, S.; Schmidt, C.; Theisen, M.; Eck, T.; Reid, E. A.

2001-12-01

The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) project was initiated by NASA, the US Navy and NOAA to monitor biomass burning and burning emissions on a global scale. The idea behind the mission is to integrate remote sensing data with global and regional transport models in real time for the purpose of providing the scientific community with smoke and fire products for planning and research purposes. FLAMBE is currently utilizing real time satellite data from GOES satellites, fire products based on the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) are generated for the Western Hemisphere every 30 minutes with only a 90 minute processing delay. We are currently collaborating with other investigators to gain global coverage. Once generated, the fire products are used to input smoke fluxes into the NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System, where advection forecasts are performed for up to 6 days. Subsequent radiative transfer calculations are used to estimate top of atmosphere and surface radiative forcing as well as surface layer visibility. Near real time validation is performed using field data collected by Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Sun photometers. In this paper we fully describe the FLAMBE project and data availability. Preliminary result from the previous year will also be presented, with an emphasis on the development of algorithms to determine smoke emission fluxes from individual fire products. Comparisons to AERONET Sun photometer data will be made.

Structural fire risk of Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário

2017-04-01

Portugal is on the top of the European countries most affected by vegetation fires which underlines the importance of the existence of an updated and coherent fire risk map. This map represent a valuable supporting tool for forest and fire management decisions, focus prevention activities, improve the efficiency of fire detection systems, manage resources and actions of fire fighting with greater effectiveness. Therefore this study proposed a structural fire risk map of the vegetated area of Portugal using a deterministic approach based on the concept of fire risk currently accepted by the scientific community which consists in the combination of the fire hazard and the potential economic damage. The existing fire susceptibility map for Portugal based on the slope, land cover and fire probability, was adopted and updated by the use of a higher resolution digital terrain model, longer burnt area perimeter dataset (1975 - 2013) and the entire set of Corine land cover inventories. Five susceptibility classes were mapped to be in accordance with the Portuguese law and the results confirms the good performance of this model not only in terms of the favourability scores but also in the predictive values. Considering three different scenarios of (maximum, mean, and minimum annual) burnt area, fire hazard were estimate. The vulnerability scores and monetary values of species defined in the literature and by law were used to calculate the potential economic damage. The result was a fire risk map that identifies the areas more prone to be affected by fires in the future and provides an estimate of the economic damage of the fire which will be a valuable tool for forest and fire managers and to minimize the economic and environmental consequences of vegetation fires in Portugal. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; (ii) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF and ISA for providing the fire data.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-12-20

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Marle, Margreet J. E.; Kloster, Silvia; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Field, Robert D.; Arneth, Almut; Forrest, Matthew; Hantson, Stijn; Kehrwald, Natalie M.; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stéphane; Yue, Chao; Kaiser, Johannes W.; van der Werf, Guido R.

2017-09-01

Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr-1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.

Climate-Driven Effects of Fire on Winter Habitat for Caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

PubMed Central

Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas. PMID:24991804

A project in two parts: Developing fire histories for the eastern U.S. and creating a climate-based continental fire frequency model to fill data gaps

Treesearch

Richard Guyette; Michael Stambaugh; Daniel Dey

2011-01-01

Tree-ring dated fire scars provide long-term records of fire frequency, giving land managers valuable baseline information about the fire regimes that existed prior to Euro-American settlement. However, for the East, fire history data prove difficult to acquire because the generally moister climate of the region causes rapid decay of wood. In an endeavor to fill data...

Project Fire Model - An Experimental Study of Model Fires: Final Report, June 1, 1966

Treesearch

G.M. Byram; H.B. Clements; M.E. Bishop; R.M. Nelson

1966-01-01

This publication is included in a four part series. The other parts of the series can be found through the following links:Progress Report #1: http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/fons/psw_1960_fons001.pdf...

Fire Regime and Ecosystem Effects of Climate-driven Changes in Rocky Mountains Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Das, T.; Lubetkin, K.; Romme, W.; Ryan, M. G.; Smithwick, E. A.; Turner, M.

2009-12-01

Western US Forest managers face more wildfires than ever before, and it is increasingly imperative to anticipate the consequences of this trend. Large fires in the northern Rocky Mountains have increased in association with warmer temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and longer fire seasons (1), and this trend is likely to continue with global warming (2). Increased wildfire occurrence is already a concern shared by managers from many federal land-management agencies (3). However, new analyses for the western US suggest that future climate could diverge even more rapidly from past climate than previously suggested. Current model projections suggest end-of-century hydroclimatic conditions like those of 1988 (the year of the well-known Yellowstone Fires) may represent close to the average year rather than an extreme year. The consequences of a shift of this magnitude for the fire regime, post-fire succession and carbon (C) balance of western forest ecosystems are well beyond what scientists have explored to date, and may fundamentally change the potential of western forests to sequester atmospheric C. We link hydroclimatic extremes (spring and summer temperature and cumulative water-year moisture deficit) to extreme fire years in northern Rockies forests, using large forest fire histories and 1/8-degree gridded historical hydrologic simulations (1950 - 2005) (4) forced with historical gridded temperature and precipitation (5). The frequency of extremes in hydroclimate associated with historic severe fire years in the northern Rocky Mountains is compared to those projected under a range of climate change projections, using global climate model runs for the A2 and B1 emissions pathways for three global climate models (NCAR PCM1, GFDL CM2.1, CNRM CM3). Coarse-scale climatic variables are downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid and used to force hydrologic simulations (6, 7). We will present preliminary results using these hydrologic simulations to model spatially explicit annual wildfire occurrence historically and under the above-cited future climate scenarios, and discuss how these results are being integrated with process-based ecosystem models and field data to model changes in carbon flux across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem landscape (8). 1. Westerling, Hidalgo, Cayan, Swetnam, Science 313, 940 (2006). 2. Tymstra, Flannigan, Armitage, Logan, Int’l J. Wildland Fire 16, 153 (2007). 3. U. S. G. A. O. GAO. (2007). 4. Liang, Lettenmaier, Wood, Burges. J. Geophys. Res. 99(D7), 14,415 (1994). 5. Maurer, Wood, Adam, Lettenmaier, Nijssen. J. Climate 15:3237 (2002). 6. Cayan, Maurer, Dettinger, Tyree, Hayhoe. Climatic Change 87(Suppl. 1) 21 (2008). 7. Hidalgo, Dettinger Cayan, CEC Report CEC-500-2007-123 (2008). 8. We acknowledge support from the Joint Fire Science Program (Project ID 09-3-01-47), the NOAA RISA program for California, and the US Forest Service.

Model of the songbird nucleus HVC as a network of central pattern generators

PubMed Central

Abarbanel, Henry D. I.

2016-01-01

We propose a functional architecture of the adult songbird nucleus HVC in which the core element is a “functional syllable unit” (FSU). In this model, HVC is organized into FSUs, each of which provides the basis for the production of one syllable in vocalization. Within each FSU, the inhibitory neuron population takes one of two operational states: 1) simultaneous firing wherein all inhibitory neurons fire simultaneously, and 2) competitive firing of the inhibitory neurons. Switching between these basic modes of activity is accomplished via changes in the synaptic strengths among the inhibitory neurons. The inhibitory neurons connect to excitatory projection neurons such that during state 1 the activity of projection neurons is suppressed, while during state 2 patterns of sequential firing of projection neurons can occur. The latter state is stabilized by feedback from the projection to the inhibitory neurons. Song composition for specific species is distinguished by the manner in which different FSUs are functionally connected to each other. Ours is a computational model built with biophysically based neurons. We illustrate that many observations of HVC activity are explained by the dynamics of the proposed population of FSUs, and we identify aspects of the model that are currently testable experimentally. In addition, and standing apart from the core features of an FSU, we propose that the transition between modes may be governed by the biophysical mechanism of neuromodulation. PMID:27535375

Performance assessment of fire-sat monitoring system based on satellite time series for fire danger estimation : the experience of the pre-operative application in the Basilicata Region (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanorte, Antonio; Desantis, Fortunato; Aromando, Angelo; Lasaponara, Rosa

2013-04-01

This paper presents the results we obtained in the context of the FIRE-SAT project during the 2012 operative application of the satellite based tools for fire monitoring. FIRE_SAT project has been funded by the Civil Protection of the Basilicata Region in order to set up a low cost methodology for fire danger monitoring and fire effect estimation based on satellite Earth Observation techniques. To this aim, NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), ASTER, Landsat TM data were used. Novel data processing techniques have been developed by researchers of the ARGON Laboratory of the CNR-IMAA for the operative monitoring of fire. In this paper we only focus on the danger estimation model which has been fruitfully used since 2008 to 2012 as an reliable operative tool to support and optimize fire fighting strategies from the alert to the management of resources including fire attacks. The daily updating of fire danger is carried out using satellite MODIS images selected for their spectral capability and availability free of charge from NASA web site. This makes these data sets very suitable for an effective systematic (daily) and sustainable low-cost monitoring of large areas. The preoperative use of the integrated model, pointed out that the system properly monitor spatial and temporal variations of fire susceptibility and provide useful information of both fire severity and post fire regeneration capability.

Comparison of Coupled Radiative Flow Solutions with Project Fire 2 Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olynick, David R.; Henline, W. D.; Chambers, Lin Hartung; Candler, G. V.

1995-01-01

A nonequilibrium, axisymmetric, Navier-Stokes flow solver with coupled radiation has been developed for use in the design or thermal protection systems for vehicles where radiation effects are important. The present method has been compared with an existing now and radiation solver and with the Project Fire 2 experimental data. Good agreement has been obtained over the entire Fire 2 trajectory with the experimentally determined values of the stagnation radiation intensity in the 0.2-6.2 eV range and with the total stagnation heating. The effects of a number of flow models are examined to determine which combination of physical models produces the best agreement with the experimental data. These models include radiation coupling, multitemperature thermal models, and finite rate chemistry. Finally, the computational efficiency of the present model is evaluated. The radiation properties model developed for this study is shown to offer significant computational savings compared to existing codes.

Fire behavior modeling to assess net benefits of forest treatments on fire hazard mitigation and bioenergy production in Northeastern California

Treesearch

David J. Ganz; David S. Saah; Klaus Barber; Mark Nechodom

2007-01-01

The fire behavior modeling described here, conducted as part of the Biomass to Energy (B2E) life cycle assessment, is funded by the California Energy Commission to evaluate the potential net benefits associated with treating and utilizing forest biomass. The B2E project facilitates economic, environmental, energy, and effectiveness assessments of the potential public...

Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Stocks, Brian J.; Gauthier, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980–2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980–2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses. PMID:27513660

Using simulated historical time series to prioritize fuel treatments on landscapes across the United States: The LANDFIRE prototype project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keane, Robert E.; Rollins, Matthew; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2007-01-01

Canopy and surface fuels in many fire-prone forests of the United States have increased over the last 70 years as a result of modern fire exclusion policies, grazing, and other land management activities. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act and National Fire Plan establish a national commitment to reduce fire hazard and restore fire-adapted ecosystems across the USA. The primary index used to prioritize treatment areas across the nation is Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) computed as departures of current conditions from the historical fire and landscape conditions. This paper describes a process that uses an extensive set of ecological models to map FRCC from a departure statistic computed from simulated time series of historical landscape composition. This mapping process uses a data-driven, biophysical approach where georeferenced field data, biogeochemical simulation models, and spatial data libraries are integrated using spatial statistical modeling to map environmental gradients that are then used to predict vegetation and fuels characteristics over space. These characteristics are then fed into a landscape fire and succession simulation model to simulate a time series of historical landscape compositions that are then compared to the composition of current landscapes to compute departure, and the FRCC values. Intermediate products from this process are then used to create ancillary vegetation, fuels, and fire regime layers that are useful in the eventual planning and implementation of fuel and restoration treatments at local scales. The complex integration of varied ecological models at different scales is described and problems encountered during the implementation of this process in the LANDFIRE prototype project are addressed.

The influence of lightning activity and anthropogenic factors on large-scale characteristics of natural fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Chernokulsky, A. V.

2017-01-01

A module for simulating of natural fires (NFs) in the climate model of the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM), is extended with respect to the influence of lightning activity and population density on the ignition frequency and fire suppression. The IAP RAS CM is used to perform numerical experiments in accordance with the conditions of the project that intercompares climate models, CMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 5). The frequency of lightning flashes was assigned in accordance with the LIS/OTD satellite data. In the calculations performed, anthropogenic ignitions play an important role in NF occurrences, except for regions at subpolar latitudes and, to a lesser degree, tropical and subtropical regions. Taking into account the dependence of fire frequency on lightning activity and population density intensifies the influence of characteristics of natural fires on the climate changes in tropics and subtropics as compared to the version of the IAP RAS CM that does not take the influence of ignition sources on the large-scale characteristics of NFs into consideration.

Evaluating potential fire behavior in lodgepole pine-dominated forests after a mountain pine beetle epidemic in north-central Colorado

Treesearch

Jennifer G. Klutsch; Mike A. Battaglia; Daniel R. West; Sheryl L. Costello; Jose F. Negron

2011-01-01

A mountain pine beetle outbreak in Colorado lodgepole pine forests has altered stand and fuel characteristics that affect potential fire behavior. Using the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator, potential fire behavior was modeled for uninfested and mountain pine beetle-affected plots 7 years after outbreak initiation and 10 and 80% projected...

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stroh, Esther; Struckhoff, Matthew; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.

2018-01-01

using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.

Supporting FIRE-suppression strategies combining fire spread MODelling and SATellite data in an operational context in Portugal: the FIRE-MODSAT project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sá, Ana C. L.; Benali, Akli; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Pereira, José M. C.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.

2014-05-01

Large wildfires are infrequent but account for the most severe environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts. In recent years Portugal has suffered the impact of major heat waves that fuelled records of burnt area exceeding 400.000ha and 300.000ha in 2003 and 2005, respectively. According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency and amplitude of summer heat waves over Iberia will very likely increase in the future. Therefore, most climate change studies point to an increase in the number and extent of wildfires. Thus, an increase in both wildfire impacts and fire suppression difficulties is expected. The spread of large wildfires results from a complex interaction between topography, meteorology and fuel properties. Wildfire spread models (e.g. FARSITE) are commonly used to simulate fire growth and behaviour and are an essential tool to understand their main drivers. Additionally, satellite active-fire data have been used to monitor the occurrence, extent, and spread of wildfires. Both satellite data and fire spread models provide different types of information about the spatial and temporal distribution of large wildfires and can potentially be used to support strategic decisions regarding fire suppression resource allocation. However, they have not been combined in a manner that fully exploits their potential and minimizes their limitations. A knowledge gap still exists in understanding how to minimize the impacts of large wildfires, leading to the following research question: What can we learn from past large wildfires in order to mitigate future fire impacts? FIRE-MODSAT is a one-year funded project by the Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology (FCT) that is founded on this research question, with the main goal of improving our understanding on the interactions between fire spread and its environmental drivers, to support fire management decisions in an operational context and generate valuable information to improve the efficiency of the fire suppression system. This project proposes to explore an innovative combination of remote sensing and fire spread models in order to 1) better understand the interactions of fire spread drivers that lead to large wildfires; 2) identify the spatio-temporal frames in which large wildfires can be suppressed more efficiently, and 3) explore the essential steps towards an operational use of both tools to assist fire suppression decisions. Preliminary results combine MODIS active-fire data and burn scar perimeters, to derive the main fire spread paths for the 10 largest wildfires that occurred in Portugal between 2001 and 2012. Fire growth and behavior simulations of some of those wildfires are assessed using the active fires data. Results are also compared with the major fire paths to understand the main drivers of fire propagation, through their interactions with topography, vegetation and meteorology. These combined results are also used for spatial and temporal identification of opportunity windows for a more efficient suppression intervention for each fire event. The approach shows promising results, providing a valuable reconstruction of the fire events and retrieval of important parameters related to the complex spread patterns of individual fire events.

Modeling erosion on steep sagebrush rangeland before and after prescribed fire

Treesearch

Corey A. Moffet; Frederick B. Pierson; Kenneth E. Spaeth

2007-01-01

Fire in sagebrush rangelands significantly alters canopy cover, ground cover, and soil properties that influence runoff and erosion processes. Runoff is generated more quickly and a larger volume of runoff is produced following prescribed fire. The result is increased risk of severe erosion and downstream flooding. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP), developed...

Development of wildfires in Australia over the last century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieradzik, Lars Peter; Haverd, Vanessa; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep G.; Smith, Ben

2017-04-01

Wildfires and their emissions are key biospheric processes in the modeling of the carbon cycle that still are insufficiently understood. In Australia, fire emissions constitute a large flux of carbon from the biosphere to the atmosphere of approximately 1.3 times larger than the annual fossil fuel emissions. In addition, fire plays a big role in determining the composition of vegetation which in turn affects land-atmosphere fluxes. Annualy, up to 4% of the vegetated land-surface area is burned which amounts to up to 3% of global NPP and results in the reslease of about 2 Pg carbon into the atmosphere. There are indications that burned area has decreased globally over recent decades but so far there is not a clear trend in the development in fire-intensity and fuel availability. Net emissions from wildfires are not generally included in global and regional carbon budgets, because it is assumed that gross fire emissions are in balance with post-fire carbon uptake by recovering vegetation. This is a valid assumption as long as climate and fire regimes are in equilibrium, but not when the climate and other drivers are changing. We present a study on the behaviour of wildfires on the Australian continent over the last century (1911 - 2012) introducing the novel fire model BLAZE (BLAZe induced biosphere-atmosphere flux Estimator) that has been designed to address the feedbacks between climate, fuel loads, and fires. BLAZE is used within the Australian land-surface model CABLE (Community Atmophere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model). The study shows two significant outcomes: A regional shift in fire patterns shift during this century due to fire suppression and greening effects as well as an increase of potential fire-line intensity (the risk that a fire becomes more intense), especially in regions where most of Australia's population resides. This strongly emphasises the need to further investigate fire dynamics under future climate scenarios. The fire model BLAZE has been developed at the CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, Australia and will be part of the upcoming release of the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS version 4.1 within the MERGE project at Lund University, Sweden. It will also be included in the EC-Earth ESM within the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO.

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

2013-12-01

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

Quantifying soil burn severity for hydrologic modeling to assess post-fire effects on sediment delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobre, Mariana; Brooks, Erin; Lew, Roger; Kolden, Crystal; Quinn, Dylan; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete

2017-04-01

Soil erosion is a secondary fire effect with great implications for many ecosystem resources. Depending on the burn severity, topography, and the weather immediately after the fire, soil erosion can impact municipal water supplies, degrade water quality, and reduce reservoirs' storage capacity. Scientists and managers use field and remotely sensed data to quickly assess post-fire burn severity in ecologically-sensitive areas. From these assessments, mitigation activities are implemented to minimize post-fire flood and soil erosion and to facilitate post-fire vegetation recovery. Alternatively, land managers can use fire behavior and spread models (e.g. FlamMap, FARSITE, FOFEM, or CONSUME) to identify sensitive areas a priori, and apply strategies such as fuel reduction treatments to proactively minimize the risk of wildfire spread and increased burn severity. There is a growing interest in linking fire behavior and spread models with hydrology-based soil erosion models to provide site-specific assessment of mitigation treatments on post-fire runoff and erosion. The challenge remains, however, that many burn severity mapping and modeling products quantify vegetation loss rather than measuring soil burn severity. Wildfire burn severity is spatially heterogeneous and depends on the pre-fire vegetation cover, fuel load, topography, and weather. Severities also differ depending on the variable of interest (e.g. soil, vegetation). In the United States, Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps, derived from Landsat satellite images, are used as an initial burn severity assessment. BARC maps are classified from either a Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) or differenced Normalized Burned Ratio (dNBR) scene into four classes (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High severity). The development of soil burn severity maps requires further manual field validation efforts to transform the BARC maps into a product more applicable for post-fire soil rehabilitation activities. Alternative spectral indices and modeled output approaches may prove better predictors of soil burn severity and hydrologic effects, but these have not yet been assessed in a model framework. In this project we compare field-verified soil burn severity maps to satellite-derived and modeled burn severity maps. We quantify the extent to which there are systematic differences in these mapping products. We then use the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) hydrologic soil erosion model to assess sediment delivery from these fires using the predicted and observed soil burn severity maps. Finally, we discuss differences in observed and predicted soil burn severity maps and application to watersheds in the Pacific Northwest to estimate post-fire sediment delivery.

Impacts of global warming on boreal larch forest in East Siberia: simulations with a coupled carbon cycle and fire regime model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, A.

2005-12-01

Boreal forest is one of the focal areas in the study of global warming and carbon cycle. In this study, a coupled carbon cycle and fire regime model was developed and applied to a larch forest in East Siberia, near Yakutsk. Fire regime is simulated with a cellular automaton (20 km x 20 km), in which fire ignition, propagation, and extinction are parameterized in a stochastic manner, including the effects of fuel accumulation and weather condition. For each grid, carbon cycle is simulated with a 10-box scheme, in which net biome production by photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, and biomass burning are calculated explicitly. Model parameters were calibrated with field data of biomass, litter stock, and fire statistics; the carbon cycle scheme was examined with flux measurement data. As a result, the model successfully captured average carbon stocks, productivity, fire frequency, and biomass burning. To assess the effects of global warming, a series of simulations were performed using climatic projections based on the IPCC-SRES emission scenarios from 1990 to 2100. The range of uncertainty among the different climate models and emission scenarios was assessed by using multi-model projection data by CCCma, CCSR/NIES, GFDL, and HCCPR corresponding to the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. The model simulations showed that global warming in the 21st century would considerably enhance the fire regime (e.g., cumulative burnt area increased by 80 to 120 percent), leading to larger carbon emission by biomass burning. The effect was so strong that growth enhancement by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and elongated growing period was cancelled out at landscape scale. In many cases, the larch forest was estimated to act as net carbon sources of 2 to 5 kg C m_|2 by the end of the 21st century, underscoring the importance of forest fire monitoring and management in this region.

Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

2015-05-01

Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and subsequent health effects.

Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries.

PubMed

Amatulli, Giuseppe; Camia, Andrea; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús

2013-04-15

The impacts of climate change on forest fires have received increased attention in recent years at both continental and local scales. It is widely recognized that weather plays a key role in extreme fire situations. It is therefore of great interest to analyze projected changes in fire danger under climate change scenarios and to assess the consequent impacts of forest fires. In this study we estimated burned areas in the European Mediterranean (EU-Med) countries under past and future climate conditions. Historical (1985-2004) monthly burned areas in EU-Med countries were modeled by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI). Monthly averages of the CFWI sub-indices were used as explanatory variables to estimate the monthly burned areas in each of the five most affected countries in Europe using three different modeling approaches (Multiple Linear Regression - MLR, Random Forest - RF, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines - MARS). MARS outperformed the other methods. Regression equations and significant coefficients of determination were obtained, although there were noticeable differences from country to country. Climatic conditions at the end of the 21st Century were simulated using results from the runs of the regional climate model HIRHAM in the European project PRUDENCE, considering two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2-B2). The MARS models were applied to both scenarios resulting in projected burned areas in each country and in the EU-Med region. Results showed that significant increases, 66% and 140% of the total burned area, can be expected in the EU-Med region under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Future PM2.5 and Associated Health Effects Due to Changes in US Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, J. R.; Val Martin, M.; Ford, B.; Zelasky, S.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Fischer, E. V.

2017-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from landscape fires has been shown to adversely affect visibility, air quality and and health across the US. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and human activities. Predictions based on climate scenarios and future land cover projections that consider socioeconomic development suggest that fire activity will rise dramatically over the next decades. As PM2.5 is associated with increased mortality and morbidity rates, increases in emissions from landscape fires may alter the health burden on the US population. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences for PM2.5 and health over the US from 2000 to 2100. We employ the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the IPCC RCP projections. Within CESM, we use a process-based global fire parameterization to project future climate-driven and human-caused fire emissions. From these simulations, we determine the current and future impact on PM2.5 concentrations and visibility for different regions of the US, and we also calculate the mortality attributable to PM2.5 and wildfire-specific PM2.5 using existing concentration-response functions. Results show that although total PM2.5 concentrations in the US are projected to be similar in 2100 as in 2000, the dominant source of PM2.5 will change. Under the RCP8.5 climate projection and SSP3 population projection, non-fire emissions (mostly anthropogenic) are projected to decrease, but PM2.5 from CONUS and non-US wildfires is projected to increase from approximately 20% of all PM2.5 in 2000 to 80% of all PM2.5 in 2100. Furthermore, although the US population is expected to decline between 2000 and 2100, the mortality attributable to wildfire smoke is expected to increase from 25,000 deaths per year in 2000 to 75,000 deaths per year in 2100.

Restoration of fire in managed forests: a model to prioritize landscapes and analyze tradeoffs

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Andrew McMahan

2013-01-01

Ongoing forest restoration on public lands in the western US is a concerted effort to counter the growing incidence of uncharacteristic wildfire in fire-adapted ecosystems. Restoration projects cover 725,000 ha annually, and include thinning and underburning to remove ladder and surface fuel, and seeding of fire-adapted native grasses and shrubs. The backlog of areas...

Who's driving?: Separating Fire, CO2, and Climate Change Influences on Vegetation and Carbon Dynamics on MC2 Results for Western Oregon and Washington, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, T.; Bachelet, D. M.; Ferschweiler, K.

2016-12-01

For Oregon and Washington west of the Cascade Mountain crest, results from the MC2 global dynamic vegetation model have projected a shift in potential vegetation type from predominantly conifer to predominantly mixed forest over the 21st century, with a shift from mixed to conifer in some areas. Carbon stocks have been projected to fall over this period. We ran MC2 using the CCSM4 RCP 8.5 climate future downscaled to 2.5 arc minute resolution with 5 different configurations: no fire; assumed ignitions without fire suppression; assumed ignitions with fire suppression; assumed ignitions with fire suppression and with CO2 concentration held at the preindustrial level; and stochastic ignitions without fire suppression. Results show that vegetation change is the result of climate change alone, while carbon is influenced by both fire occurrence and CO2-induced increased water use efficiency. While model results do not indicate a large change in carbon dynamics concomitant with the shift in vegetation, it is reasonable to expect that a change in conditions resulting in such a change in vegetation type would stress the existing vegetation resulting in some mortality and loss of live carbon.

Modeling of phosphorus fluxes produced by wild fires at watershed scales.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyjasik, M.; Hernandez, M.; Shaw, N.; Baker, M.; Fowles, M. T.; Cisney, T. A.; Jex, A. P.; Moisen, G.

2017-12-01

River runoff is one of the controlling processes in the terrestrial phosphorus cycle. Phosphorus is often a limiting factor in fresh water. One of the factors that has not been studied and modeled in detail is phosporus flux produced from forest wild fires. Phosphate released by weathering is quickly absorbed in soils. Forest wild fires expose barren soils to intensive erosion, thus releasing relatively large fluxes of phosphorus. Measurements from three control burn sites were used to correlate erosion with phosphorus fluxes. These results were used to model phosphorus fluxes from burned watersheds during a five year long period after fires occurred. Erosion in our model is simulated using a combination of two models: the WEPP (USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project) and the GeoWEPP (GIS-based Water Erosion Prediction Project). Erosion produced from forest disturbances is predicted for any watershed using hydrologic, soil, and meteorological data unique to the individual watersheds or individual slopes. The erosion results are modified for different textural soil classes and slope angles to model fluxes of phosphorus. The results of these models are calibrated using measured concentrations of phosphorus for three watersheds located in the Interior Western United States. The results will help the United States Forest Service manage phosporus fluxes in national forests.

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D; Galbraith, David R; Moghim, Sanaz; Levine, Naomi M; Bras, Rafael L; Coe, Michael T; Costa, Marcos H; Malhi, Yadvinder; Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G; McKnight, Shawna; Wang, Jingfeng; Moorcroft, Paul R

2015-02-20

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO 2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO 2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO 2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO 2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors - climate change, CO 2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use - to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Space-Based Sensorweb Monitoring of Wildfires in Thailand

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Steve; Doubleday, Joshua; Mclaren, David; Davies, Ashley; Tran, Daniel; Tanpipat, Veerachai; Akaakara, Siri; Ratanasuwan, Anuchit; Mandl, Daniel

2011-01-01

We describe efforts to apply sensorweb technologies to the monitoring of forest fires in Thailand. In this approach, satellite data and ground reports are assimilated to assess the current state of the forest system in terms of forest fire risk, active fires, and likely progression of fires and smoke plumes. This current and projected assessment can then be used to actively direct sensors and assets to best acquire further information. This process operates continually with new data updating models of fire activity leading to further sensing and updating of models. As the fire activity is tracked, products such as active fire maps, burn scar severity maps, and alerts are automatically delivered to relevant parties.We describe the current state of the Thailand Fire Sensorweb which utilizes the MODIS-based FIRMS system to track active fires and trigger Earth Observing One / Advanced Land Imager to acquire imagery and produce active fire maps, burn scar severity maps, and alerts. We describe ongoing work to integrate additional sensor sources and generate additional products.

Vegetation projections for Wind Cave National Park with three future climate scenarios: Final report in completion of Task Agreement J8W07100052

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

2013-01-01

Since the initial application of MC1 to a small portion of WICA (Bachelet et al. 2000), the model has been altered to improve model performance with the inclusion of dynamic fire. Applying this improved version to WICA required substantial recalibration, during which we have made a number of improvements to MC1 that will be incorporated as permanent changes. In this report we document these changes and our calibration procedure following a brief overview of the model. We compare the projections of current vegetation to the current state of the park and present projections of vegetation dynamics under future climates downscaled from three GCMs selected to represent the existing range in available GCM projections. In doing so, we examine the consequences of different management options regarding fire and grazing, major aspects of biotic management at Wind Cave.

Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Erosion Modeling: Lessons Learned from the Rock House and High Park Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Mary Ellen; Elliot, William E.; MacDonald, Lee H.

2013-04-01

Once the danger posed by an active wildfire has passed, land managers must rapidly assess the threat from post-fire runoff and erosion due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties. Increased runoff and sediment delivery are of great concern to both the pubic and resource managers. Post-fire assessments and proposals to mitigate these threats are typically undertaken by interdisciplinary Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams. These teams are under very tight deadlines, so they often begin their analysis while the fire is still burning and typically must complete their plans within a couple of weeks. Many modeling tools and datasets have been developed over the years to assist BAER teams, but process-based, spatially explicit models are currently under-utilized relative to simpler, lumped models because they are more difficult to set up and require the preparation of spatially-explicit data layers such as digital elevation models, soils, and land cover. The difficulty of acquiring and utilizing these data layers in spatially-explicit models increases with increasing fire size. Spatially-explicit post-fire erosion modeling was attempted for a small watershed in the 1270 km2 Rock House fire in Texas, but the erosion modeling work could not be completed in time. The biggest limitation was the time required to extract the spatially explicit soils data needed to run the preferred post-fire erosion model (GeoWEPP with Disturbed WEPP parameters). The solution is to have the spatial soil, land cover, and DEM data layers prepared ahead of time, and to have a clear methodology for the BAER teams to incorporate these layers in spatially-explicit modeling interfaces like GeoWEPP. After a fire occurs the data layers can quickly be clipped to the fire perimeter. The soil and land cover parameters can then be adjusted according to the burn severity map, which is one of the first products generated for the BAER teams. Under a previous project for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency this preparatory work was done for much of Colorado, and in June 2012 the High Park wildfire in north central Colorado burned over 340 km2. The data layers for the entire burn area were quickly assembled and the spatially explicit runoff and erosion modeling was completed in less than three days. The resulting predictions were then used by the BAER team to quantify downstream risks and delineate priority areas for different post-fire treatments. These two contrasting case studies demonstrate the feasibility and the value of preparing datasets and modeling tools ahead of time. In recognition of this, the U.S. National Aeronautic and Space Administration has agreed to fund a pilot project to demonstrate the utility of acquiring and preparing the necessary data layers for fire-prone wildlands across the western U.S. A similar modeling and data acquisition approach could be followed

LANDFIRE: A nationally consistent vegetation, wildland fire, and fuel assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rollins, Matthew G.

2009-01-01

LANDFIRE is a 5-year, multipartner project producing consistent and comprehensive maps and data describing vegetation, wildland fuel, fire regimes and ecological departure from historical conditions across the United States. It is a shared project between the wildland fire management and research and development programs of the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service and US Department of the Interior. LANDFIRE meets agency and partner needs for comprehensive, integrated data to support landscape-level fire management planning and prioritization, community and firefighter protection, effective resource allocation, and collaboration between agencies and the public. The LANDFIRE data production framework is interdisciplinary, science-based and fully repeatable, and integrates many geospatial technologies including biophysical gradient analyses, remote sensing, vegetation modelling, ecological simulation, and landscape disturbance and successional modelling. LANDFIRE data products are created as 30-m raster grids and are available over the internet at www.landfire.gov, accessed 22 April 2009. The data products are produced at scales that may be useful for prioritizing and planning individual hazardous fuel reduction and ecosystem restoration projects; however, the applicability of data products varies by location and specific use, and products may need to be adjusted by local users.

Mapping the Distribution of Wildfire Fuels Using AVIRIS in the Santa Monica Mountains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Dar; Gardner, M.; Regelbrugge, J.; Pedreros, D.; Ustin, S.

1998-01-01

Catastrophic wildfires, such as the 1990 Painted Cave Fire in Santa Barbara or Oakland fire of 1991, attest to the destructive potential of fire in the wildland/urban interface. For example, during the Painted Cave Fire, 673 structures were consumed over a period of only six hours at an estimated cost of 250 million dollars (Gomes et al., 1993). One of the primary sources of fuels is chaparral, which consists of plant species that are adapted to frequent fires and may actually promote its ignition and spread of through volatile organic compounds in foliage. As one of the most widely distributed plant communities in Southern California, and one of the most common vegetation types along the wildland urban interface, chaparral represents one of the greatest sources of wildfire hazard in the region. An ongoing NASA funded research project was initiated in 1994 to study the potential of AVIRIS for mapping wildfire fuel properties in Southern California chaparral. The project was initiated in the Santa Monica Mountains, an east-west trending range in western Los Angeles County that has experienced extremely high fire frequencies over the past 70 years. The Santa Monica Mountains were selected because they exemplify many of the problems facing the southwest, forming a complex mosaic of land ownership intermixed with a diversity of chaparral age classes and fuel loads. Furthermore, the area has a wide diversity of chaparral community types and a rich background in supporting geographic information including fire history, soils and topography. Recent fires in the Santa Monica Mountains, including several in 1993 and the Calabasas fire of 1996 attest to the active fire regime present in the area. The long term objectives of this project are to improve existing maps of wildland fuel properties in the area, link AVIRIS derived products to fuel models under development for the region, then predict fire hazard through models that simulate fire spread. In this paper, we describe the AVIRIS derived products we are developing to map wildland fuels.

Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska

Treesearch

Q. Zhuang; A. D. McGuire; K. P. O' Neill; J. W. Harden; V. E. Romanovsky; J. Yarie

2003-01-01

In this study, the dynamics of soil thermal, hydrologic, and ecosystem processes were coupled to project how the carbon budgets of boreal forests will respond to changes in atmospheric CO2, climate, and fire disturbance. The ability of the model to simulate gross primary production and ecosystem respiration was verified for a mature black spruce...

Research Summary: Projecting Vegetation and Wildfire Response to Changing Climate and Fire Management in Interior Alaska

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-21

USER GUIDE Research Summary: Projecting Vegetation and Wildfire Response to Changing Climate and Fire Management in Interior Alaska SERDP Project...Summary: Projecting Vegetation and Wildfire Response to Changing Climate and Fire Management in Interior Alaska 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER...forecast landscape change in response to projected changes in climate , fire regime, and fire management. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF

A human-driven decline in global burned area.

PubMed

Andela, N; Morton, D C; Giglio, L; Chen, Y; van der Werf, G R; Kasibhatla, P S; DeFries, R S; Collatz, G J; Hantson, S; Kloster, S; Bachelet, D; Forrest, M; Lasslop, G; Li, F; Mangeon, S; Melton, J R; Yue, C; Randerson, J T

2017-06-30

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Applications of Living Fire PRA models to Fire Protection Significance Determination Process in Taiwan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De-Cheng, Chen; Chung-Kung, Lo; Tsu-Jen, Lin

2004-07-01

The living fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models for all three operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan had been established in December 2000. In that study, a scenario-based PRA approach was adopted to systematically evaluate the fire and smoke hazards and associated risks. Using these fire PRA models developed, a risk-informed application project had also been completed in December 2002 for the evaluation of cable-tray fire-barrier wrapping exemption. This paper presents a new application of the fire PRA models to fire protection issues using the fire protection significance determination process (FP SDP). The fire protection issues studied may involvemore » the selection of appropriate compensatory measures during the period when an automatic fire detection or suppression system in a safety-related fire zone becomes inoperable. The compensatory measure can either be a 24-hour fire watch or an hourly fire patrol. The living fire PRA models were used to estimate the increase in risk associated with the fire protection issue in terms of changes in core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF). In compliance with SDP at-power and the acceptance guidelines specified in RG 1.174, the fire protection issues in question can be grouped into four categories; red, yellow, white and green, in accordance with the guidelines developed for FD SDP. A 24-hour fire watch is suggested only required for the yellow condition, while an hourly fire patrol may be adopted for the white condition. More limiting requirement is suggested for the red condition, but no special consideration is needed for the green condition. For the calculation of risk measures, risk impacts from any additional fire scenarios that may have been introduced, as well as more severe initiating events and fire damages that may accompany the fire protection issue should be considered carefully. Examples are presented in this paper to illustrate the evaluation process. (authors)« less

Compounding nonlinearities in the climate and wildfire system contribute to high uncertainty in estimates of future burned area in the western United State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.

2015-12-01

Ecological studies are increasingly recognizing the importance of atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) as a driver of forest drought stress and disturbance processes such as wildfire. Because of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, small variations in temperature can have large impacts on VPD, and therefore drought, particularly in warm, dry areas and particularly during the warm season. It is also clear that VPD and drought affect forest fire nonlinearly, as incremental drying leads to increasingly large burned areas. Forest fire is also affected by fuel amount and connectivity, which are promoted by vegetation growth in previous years, which is in turn promoted by lack of drought, highlighting the importance of nuances in the sequencing of natural interannual climate variations in modulating the impacts of drought on wildfire. The many factors affecting forest fire, and the nonlinearities embedded within the climate and wildfire systems, cause interannual variability in forest-fire area and frequency to be wildly variable and strongly affected by internal climate variability. In addition, warming over the past century has produced a background increase in forest fire frequency and area in many regions. In this talk I focus on the western United States and will explore whether the relationships between internal climate variability on forest fire area have been amplified by the effects of warming as a result of the compounding nonlinearities described above. I will then explore what this means for future burned area in the western United States and make the case that uncertainties in the future global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, model projections of mean temperatures, model projections of precipitation, and model projections of natural climate variability translate to very large uncertainties in the effects of future climate variability on forest fire area in the United States and globally.

Large Scale Experiments on Spacecraft Fire Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urban, David L.; Ruff, Gary A.; Minster, Olivier; Toth, Balazs; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; T'ien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Cowlard, Adam J.; Legros, Guillaume; Eigenbrod, Christian;

Large Scale Experiments on Spacecraft Fire Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urban, David; Ruff, Gary A.; Minster, Olivier; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; Tien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Legros, Guillaume; Eigenbrod, Christian; Smirnov, Nickolay; Fujita, Osamu;

Utilizing NASA EOS Data for Fire Management in el Departmento del Valle del Cauco, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenton, J. C.; Bledsoe, N.; Alabdouli, K.

2012-12-01

In the last few years, fire incidence in Colombian wild areas has increased, damaging pristine forests into savannas and sterile lands. Fire poses a significant threat to biodiversity, rural communities and established infrastructure. These events issue an urgent need to address this problem. NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) can play a significant role in the monitoring fires and natural disasters. SERVIR, the Regional Visualization and Monitoring Network, constitutes a platform for the observation, forecasting and modeling of environmental processes in Central America. A project called "The GIS for fire management in Guatemala (SIGMA-I)" has been already conducted to address the same problem in another Latin American country, Guatemala. SIGMA-I was developed by the Inter-agency work among the National protected areas council (CONAP), National Forestry Institution (INAB), the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction / National Forest Fire Prevention and Control System (CONRED/SIPECIF), and the Ministry of the Environment and National Resources (MARN) in Guatemala under the guidance and assistance of SERVIR. With SIGMA-I as an example, we proposed to conduct a similar project for the country of Colombia. First, a pilot study in the area of the watershed of the Cali River, Colombia was conducted to ensure that the data was available and that the maps and models were accurate. The proposed study will investigate the technical resources required: 1.) A fire map with a compilation of ignition data (hot spots) utilizing Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products MOD14 and MYD14 2.) A map of fire scars derived from medium resolution satellite data (ASTER) during the period 2003-2011 for the entire country, and a map of fire scar recurrence and statistics derived from the datasets produced. 3.) A pattern analysis and ignition cause model derived from a matrix of variables statistically exploring the demographic and environmental factors of fire risk, such as land surface temperature, precipitation, and NDVI .4.) A dynamic fire risk evaluation able to generate a dynamic map of ignition risk based on statistical analysis factors. This study aims to research integrating MODIS, Landsat and ASTER data along with in-situ data on environmental parameters from the Corporation of the Cauca Valley River (CVC) along with other data on social, economical and cultural variables obtained by researchers of the Wild Fire Observatory (OCIF) from the "Universidad Autónoma de Occidente" in order to create an ignition cause model, dynamic fire risk evaluation system and compile any and all geospatial data generated for the region. In this way the research will help predict and forecast fire vulnerabilities in the region. The team undertook this project through SERVIR with the guidance of the scientist, Victor Hugo Ramos, who was the leader and principal investigator on the SIGMA-I.

Chapter 13 - Conventional fire behavior modeling systems are inadequate for predicting fire behavior in bark beetle-impacted forests (Project INT-EM-F-11-03)

Treesearch

Sharon M. Hood; Robert E. Keane; Helen Y. Smith; Joel Egan; Lisa Holsinger

2018-01-01

Understanding the impacts of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) on fire behavior is important from both an ecological and land management viewpoint. However, numerous uncertainties exist in the linkages of MPB-caused treemortality to changes in canopy and surface fuels (e.g., fuel loading, arrangement, and availability) and the...

Linking Wildfire and Climate as Drivers of Plant Species and Community-level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newingham, B. A.; Hudak, A. T.; Bright, B. C.

2015-12-01

Plant species distributions and community shifts after fire are affected by burn severity, elevation, aspect, and climate. However, little empirical data exists on long-term (decadal) recovery after fire across these interacting factors, limiting understanding of fire regime characteristics and climate in post-fire community trajectories. We examined plant species and community responses a decade after fire across five fires in ponderosa pine, dry mixed coniferous, and moist mixed coniferous forests across the western USA. Using field data, we determined changes in plant communities one and ten years post-fire across gradients of burn severity, elevation, and aspect. Existing published work has shown that plant species distributions can be accurately predicted from physiologically relevant climate variables using non-parametric Random Forests models; such models have also been linked to projected climate profiles in 2030, 2060, and 2090 generated from three commonly used general circulation models (GCMs). We explore the possibility that fire and climate are coupled drivers affecting plant species distributions. Climate change may not manifest as a slow shift in plant species distributions, but as sudden, localized events tied to changing fire and other disturbance regimes.

The changing strength and nature of fire-climate relationships in the northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy

2015-01-01

Time-varying fire-climate relationships may represent an important component of fire-regime variability, relevant for understanding the controls of fire and projecting fire activity under global-change scenarios. We used time-varying statistical models to evaluate if and how fire-climate relationships varied from 1902-2008, in one of the most flammable forested regions of the western U.S.A. Fire-danger and water-balance metrics yielded the best combination of calibration accuracy and predictive skill in modeling annual area burned. The strength of fire-climate relationships varied markedly at multi-decadal scales, with models explaining < 40% to 88% of the variation in annual area burned. The early 20th century (1902-1942) and the most recent two decades (1985-2008) exhibited strong fire-climate relationships, with weaker relationships for much of the mid 20th century (1943-1984), coincident with diminished burning, less fire-conducive climate, and the initiation of modern fire fighting. Area burned and the strength of fire-climate relationships increased sharply in the mid 1980s, associated with increased temperatures and longer potential fire seasons. Unlike decades with high burning in the early 20th century, models developed using fire-climate relationships from recent decades overpredicted area burned when applied to earlier periods. This amplified response of fire to climate is a signature of altered fire-climate-relationships, and it implicates non-climatic factors in this recent shift. Changes in fuel structure and availability following 40+ yr of unusually low fire activity, and possibly land use, may have resulted in increased fire vulnerability beyond expectations from climatic factors alone. Our results highlight the potential for non-climatic factors to alter fire-climate relationships, and the need to account for such dynamics, through adaptable statistical or processes-based models, for accurately predicting future fire activity.

The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008

PubMed Central

Higuera, Philip E.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Morgan, Penelope

2015-01-01

Time-varying fire-climate relationships may represent an important component of fire-regime variability, relevant for understanding the controls of fire and projecting fire activity under global-change scenarios. We used time-varying statistical models to evaluate if and how fire-climate relationships varied from 1902-2008, in one of the most flammable forested regions of the western U.S.A. Fire-danger and water-balance metrics yielded the best combination of calibration accuracy and predictive skill in modeling annual area burned. The strength of fire-climate relationships varied markedly at multi-decadal scales, with models explaining < 40% to 88% of the variation in annual area burned. The early 20th century (1902-1942) and the most recent two decades (1985-2008) exhibited strong fire-climate relationships, with weaker relationships for much of the mid 20th century (1943-1984), coincident with diminished burning, less fire-conducive climate, and the initiation of modern fire fighting. Area burned and the strength of fire-climate relationships increased sharply in the mid 1980s, associated with increased temperatures and longer potential fire seasons. Unlike decades with high burning in the early 20th century, models developed using fire-climate relationships from recent decades overpredicted area burned when applied to earlier periods. This amplified response of fire to climate is a signature of altered fire-climate-relationships, and it implicates non-climatic factors in this recent shift. Changes in fuel structure and availability following 40+ yr of unusually low fire activity, and possibly land use, may have resulted in increased fire vulnerability beyond expectations from climatic factors alone. Our results highlight the potential for non-climatic factors to alter fire-climate relationships, and the need to account for such dynamics, through adaptable statistical or processes-based models, for accurately predicting future fire activity. PMID:26114580

The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008.

PubMed

Higuera, Philip E; Abatzoglou, John T; Littell, Jeremy S; Morgan, Penelope

2015-01-01

Time-varying fire-climate relationships may represent an important component of fire-regime variability, relevant for understanding the controls of fire and projecting fire activity under global-change scenarios. We used time-varying statistical models to evaluate if and how fire-climate relationships varied from 1902-2008, in one of the most flammable forested regions of the western U.S.A. Fire-danger and water-balance metrics yielded the best combination of calibration accuracy and predictive skill in modeling annual area burned. The strength of fire-climate relationships varied markedly at multi-decadal scales, with models explaining < 40% to 88% of the variation in annual area burned. The early 20th century (1902-1942) and the most recent two decades (1985-2008) exhibited strong fire-climate relationships, with weaker relationships for much of the mid 20th century (1943-1984), coincident with diminished burning, less fire-conducive climate, and the initiation of modern fire fighting. Area burned and the strength of fire-climate relationships increased sharply in the mid 1980s, associated with increased temperatures and longer potential fire seasons. Unlike decades with high burning in the early 20th century, models developed using fire-climate relationships from recent decades overpredicted area burned when applied to earlier periods. This amplified response of fire to climate is a signature of altered fire-climate-relationships, and it implicates non-climatic factors in this recent shift. Changes in fuel structure and availability following 40+ yr of unusually low fire activity, and possibly land use, may have resulted in increased fire vulnerability beyond expectations from climatic factors alone. Our results highlight the potential for non-climatic factors to alter fire-climate relationships, and the need to account for such dynamics, through adaptable statistical or processes-based models, for accurately predicting future fire activity.

Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Joseph D.; Gutzwiller, Kevin J.; Barrow, Wylie C.; Johnson-Randall, Lori; Zygo, Lisa; Swint, Pamela

2011-01-01

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.

Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Joseph D.; Gutzwiller, Kevin J.; Barrow, Wylie C.; Johnson-Randall, Lori; Zygo, Lisa; Swint, Pamela

2011-01-01

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes. ??2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Metal fires and their implications for advanced reactors.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nowlen, Steven Patrick; Figueroa, Victor G.; Olivier, Tara Jean

This report details the primary results of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development project (LDRD 08-0857) Metal Fires and Their Implications for Advance Reactors. Advanced reactors may employ liquid metal coolants, typically sodium, because of their many desirable qualities. This project addressed some of the significant challenges associated with the use of liquid metal coolants, primary among these being the extremely rapid oxidation (combustion) that occurs at the high operating temperatures in reactors. The project has identified a number of areas for which gaps existed in knowledge pertinent to reactor safety analyses. Experimental and analysis capabilities were developed in thesemore » areas to varying degrees. In conjunction with team participation in a DOE gap analysis panel, focus was on the oxidation of spilled sodium on thermally massive surfaces. These are spills onto surfaces that substantially cool the sodium during the oxidation process, and they are relevant because standard risk mitigation procedures seek to move spill environments into this regime through rapid draining of spilled sodium. While the spilled sodium is not quenched, the burning mode is different in that there is a transition to a smoldering mode that has not been comprehensively described previously. Prior work has described spilled sodium as a pool fire, but there is a crucial, experimentally-observed transition to a smoldering mode of oxidation. A series of experimental measurements have comprehensively described the thermal evolution of this type of sodium fire for the first time. A new physics-based model has been developed that also predicts the thermal evolution of this type of sodium fire for the first time. The model introduces smoldering oxidation through porous oxide layers to go beyond traditional pool fire analyses that have been carried out previously in order to predict experimentally observed trends. Combined, these developments add significantly to the safety analysis capabilities of the advanced-reactor community for directly relevant scenarios. Beyond the focus on the thermally-interacting and smoldering sodium pool fires, experimental and analysis capabilities for sodium spray fires have also been developed in this project.« less

Resource-dependent growth models for Sierran mixed-conifer saplings

Treesearch

S.W. Bigelow; M.P. North; W.R. Horwath

2009-01-01

Thinning to reduce wildfire hazard is a common management practice in frequent-fire forests of the American west, but it is uncertain whether projects will help regenerate fire-resistant, shade-intolerant pines. We studied naturally established saplings of six conifer species in mixed-conifer forest in northern California, USA to...

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Mudelsee, Manfred

2008-03-01

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hollingsworth, LaWen T.; Kurth, Laurie,; Parresol, Bernard, R.

Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation System. The fundamental fire intensity algorithms in these systems require surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model surface fire behavior. Canopy base height, stand height, and canopy bulk density are required in addition to surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model crown fire activity. Several surface fuelmore » and canopy classification efforts have used various remote sensing and ecological relationships as core methods to develop the spatial layers. All of these methods depend upon consistent and temporally constant interpretations of crown attributes and their ecological conditions to estimate surface fuel conditions. This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for an 80,000 ha tract of land in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern US using three different data sources. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the US using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern US using satellite imagery. Differences in modeled fire behavior, data development, and data utility are summarized to assist in determining which data source may be most applicable for various land management activities and required analyses. Characterizing fire behavior under different fuel relationships provides insights for natural ecological processes, management strategies for fire mitigation, and positive and negative features of different modeling systems. A comparison of flame length, rate of spread, crown fire activity, and burn probabilities modeled with FlamMap shows some similar patterns across the landscape from all three data sources, but there are potentially important differences. All data sources showed an expected range of fire behavior. Average flame lengths ranged between 1 and 1.4 m. Rate of spread varied the greatest with a range of 2.4-5.7 m min{sup -1}. Passive crown fire was predicted for 5% of the study area using FCCS and LANDFIRE while passive crown fire was not predicted using SWRA data. No active crown fire was predicted regardless of the data source. Burn probability patterns across the landscape were similar but probability was highest using SWRA and lowest using FCCS.« less

Cirrus cloud spectra and layers observed during the FIRE and GASP projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flatau, Piotr J.; Gultepe, I.; Nastrom, G.; Cotton, William R.; Heymsfield, A. J.

1990-01-01

A general characterization is developed for cirrus clouds in terms of their spectra, shapes, optical thicknesses, and radiative properties for use in numerical models. Data sets from the Global Atmospheric Sampling Project (GASP) of the upper troposphere and the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) are combined and analyzed to study general traits of cirrus clouds. A definition is given for 2D turbulence, and the GASP and FIRE data sets are examined with respect to cirrus layers and entrainment and to dominant turbulent scales. The approach employs conditional sampling in cloudy and clear air, power-spectral analysis, and mixing-line-type diagrams. Evidence is given for a well mixed cloud deck and for the tendency of cirrus to be formed in multilayer structures. The results are of use in mesoscale and global circulation models which predict cirrus, in small-scale cirrus modeling, and in studying the role of gravity waves in the horizontal structure of upper tropospheric clouds.

Erosion Risks in Selected Watersheds for the 2005 School Fire Located Near Pomeroy, Washington on Predominately Ash-Cap Soils

Treesearch

William Elliot; Ina Sue Miller; Brandon Glaza

2007-01-01

A limited erosion potential analysis was carried out on the 50,000 acre School Fire. Three WEPP interfaces were used for the analysis, a GIS wizard, an online interface and a windows interface. Ten watersheds within the fire area were modeled with the GeoWEPP tool (a geo-spatial interface for WEPP, Water Erosion Predication Project). The watersheds covered 18,823 acres...

Simulation of Neural Firing Dynamics: A Student Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kletsky, E. J.

This paper describes a student project in digital simulation techniques that is part of a graduate systems analysis course entitled Biosimulation. The students chose different simulation techniques to solve a problem related to the neuron model. (MLH)

Feedback Enhances Feedforward Figure-Ground Segmentation by Changing Firing Mode

PubMed Central

Supèr, Hans; Romeo, August

2011-01-01

In the visual cortex, feedback projections are conjectured to be crucial in figure-ground segregation. However, the precise function of feedback herein is unclear. Here we tested a hypothetical model of reentrant feedback. We used a previous developed 2-layered feedforwardspiking network that is able to segregate figure from ground and included feedback connections. Our computer model data show that without feedback, neurons respond with regular low-frequency (∼9 Hz) bursting to a figure-ground stimulus. After including feedback the firing pattern changed into a regular (tonic) spiking pattern. In this state, we found an extra enhancement of figure responses and a further suppression of background responses resulting in a stronger figure-ground signal. Such push-pull effect was confirmed by comparing the figure-ground responses withthe responses to a homogenous texture. We propose that feedback controlsfigure-ground segregation by influencing the neural firing patterns of feedforward projecting neurons. PMID:21738747

Feedback enhances feedforward figure-ground segmentation by changing firing mode.

PubMed

Supèr, Hans; Romeo, August

2011-01-01

In the visual cortex, feedback projections are conjectured to be crucial in figure-ground segregation. However, the precise function of feedback herein is unclear. Here we tested a hypothetical model of reentrant feedback. We used a previous developed 2-layered feedforward spiking network that is able to segregate figure from ground and included feedback connections. Our computer model data show that without feedback, neurons respond with regular low-frequency (∼9 Hz) bursting to a figure-ground stimulus. After including feedback the firing pattern changed into a regular (tonic) spiking pattern. In this state, we found an extra enhancement of figure responses and a further suppression of background responses resulting in a stronger figure-ground signal. Such push-pull effect was confirmed by comparing the figure-ground responses with the responses to a homogenous texture. We propose that feedback controls figure-ground segregation by influencing the neural firing patterns of feedforward projecting neurons.

ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOL SOURCE-RECEPTOR RELATIONSHIPS: THE ROLE OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen L. Robinson; Spyros N. Pandis; Cliff I. Davidson

2004-12-01

This report describes the technical progress made on the Pittsburgh Air Quality Study (PAQS) during the period of March 2004 through August 2004. Significant progress was made this project period on the analysis of ambient data, source apportionment, and deterministic modeling activities. Results highlighted in this report include evaluation of the performance of PMCAMx+ for an air pollution episode in the Eastern US, an emission profile for a coke production facility, ultrafine particle composition during a nucleation event, and a new hybrid approach for source apportionment. An agreement was reached with a utility to characterize fine particle and mercury emissionsmore » from a commercial coal fired power. Research in the next project period will include source testing of a coal fired power plant, source apportionment analysis, emission scenario modeling with PMCAMx+, and writing up results for submission as journal articles.« less

Mediterranean maquis fuel model development and mapping to support fire modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V.; Arca, B.; Pellizzaro, G.; Salis, M.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

2009-04-01

Fuel load data and fuel model maps represent a critical issue for fire spread and behaviour modeling. The availability of accurate input data at different spatial and temporal scales can allow detailed analysis and predictions of fire hazard and fire effects across a landscape. Fuel model data are used in spatially explicit fire growth models to attain fire behaviour information for fuel management in prescribed fires, fire management applications, firefighters training, smoke emissions, etc. However, fuel type characteristics are difficult to be parameterized due to their complexity and variability: live and dead materials with different size contribute in different ways to the fire spread and behaviour. In the last decades, a strong help was provided by the use of remote sensing imagery at high spatial and spectral resolution. Such techniques are able to capture fine scale fuel distributions for accurate fire growth projections. Several attempts carried out in Europe were devoted to fuel classification and map characterization. In Italy, fuel load estimation and fuel model definition are still critical issues to be addressed due to the lack of detailed information. In this perspective, the aim of the present work was to propose an integrated approach based on field data collection, fuel model development and fuel model mapping to provide fuel models for the Mediterranean maquis associations. Field data needed for the development of fuel models were collected using destructive and non destructive measurements in experimental plots located in Northern Sardinia (Italy). Statistical tests were used to identify the main fuel types that were classified into four custom fuel models. Subsequently, a supervised classification by the Maximum Likelihood algorithm was applied on IKONOS images to identify and map the different types of maquis vegetation. The correspondent fuel model was then associated to each vegetation type to obtain the fuel model map. The results show the potential of this approach in achieving a reasonable accuracy in fuel model development and mapping; fine scale fuel model maps can be potentially helpful to obtain realistic predictions of fire behaviour and fire effects.

Modelling global CO2 emissions into the atmosphere from crown, ground, and peat fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, Alexey V.; Mokhov, Igor I.; Chernokulsky, Alexander V.

2015-04-01

The scheme for natural fires implemented in the climate model (CM) developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP RAS) is extended by a module accounting for ground and peat fires. With the IAP RAS CM, the simulations are performed for 1700-2300 in accordance with the CMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 5) protocol. The modelled present-day burnt area, BA, and the corresponding CO2 emissions into the atmosphere E agree with the GFED-3.1 estimates at most regions. In the 21st century, under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios, the global BA increases by 10-41% depending on scenario, and E increases by 11-39%. Under the mitigation scenario RCP 2.6, both BA and E slightly decrease in the 22nd-23rd centuries. For scenarios RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, they continue to increase in these two centuries. All these changes are mostly due to changes in natural fires activity in the boreal regions. Ground and peat fires contribute significantly to the total emissions of CO2 from natural fires (20-25% at the global scale depending on scenario and calendar year). Peat fires markedly intensify interannual variability of regional CO2 emissions from natural fires.

Simulations of Forest Fires by the Cellular Automata Model "ABBAMPAU"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Gregorio, S.; Bendicenti, E.

2003-04-01

Forest fires represent a serious environmental problem, whose negative impact is becoming day by day more worrisome. Forest fires are very complex phenomena; that need an interdisciplinary approach. The adopted method to modelling involves the definition of local rules, from which the global behaviour of the system can emerge. The paradigm of Cellular Automata was applied and the model ABBAMPAU was projected to simulate the evolution of forest fires. Cellular Automata features (parallelism and a-centrism) seem to match the system "forest fire"; the parameters, describing globally a forest fire, i.e. propagation rate, flame length and direction, fireline intensity, fire duration time et c. are mainly depending on some local characteristics i.e. vegetation type (live and dead fuel), relative humidity, fuel moisture, heat, territory morphology (altitude, slope), et c.. The only global characteristic is given by wind velocity and direction, but wind velocity and direction is locally altered according to the morphology; therefore wind has also to be considered at local level. ABBAMPAU accounts for the following aspects of the phenomenon: effects of combustion in surface and crown fire inside the cell, crown fire triggering off; surface and crown fire spread, determination of the local wind rate and direction. A validation of ABBAMPAU was tested on a real case of forest fire, in the territory of Villaputzu, Sardinia island, August 22nd, 1998. First simulations account for the main characteristics of the phenomenon and agree with the observations. The results show that the model could be applied for the forest fire preventions, the productions of risk scenarios and the evaluation of the forest fire environmental impact.

Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

2008-12-01

Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from wildfires, agricultural and woodfuel burning will be quantified and drivers identified. Future projections of climate and land use change are applied to the model to investigate joint effects on future changes in fire, deforestation and vegetation dynamics in the Amazon basin.

DEMONSTRATION OF NATURAL GAS REBURN FOR NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTION AT OHIO EDISON COMPANY'S CYCLONE-FIRED NILES PLANT UNIT NO. 1

EPA Science Inventory

The report describes a demonstration of reburning on a cyclone-fired boiler. The project included a review of reburn technology, aerodynamic flow model testing, long-term load dispatch testing, and boiler tube wall thickness monitoring. The report also contains a description of O...

Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D

2017-01-01

Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010-2019), mid (2050-2059), and late (2090-2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8-48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink.

Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010–2019), mid (2050–2059), and late (2090–2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8–48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink. PMID:28046079

Chapter 4 - The LANDFIRE Prototype Project reference database

Treesearch

John F. Caratti

2006-01-01

This chapter describes the data compilation process for the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project (LANDFIRE Prototype Project) reference database (LFRDB) and explains the reference data applications for LANDFIRE Prototype maps and models. The reference database formed the foundation for all LANDFIRE tasks. All products generated by the...

FEMME- post-Fire Emergency ManageMEnt tool.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, Diana; Serpa, Dalila; Rocha, João; Nunes, João; Keizer, Jacob

2017-04-01

Wildfires can have important impacts on hydrological and soil erosion processes in forest catchments, due to the destruction of vegetation cover and changes to soil properties. The involved processes however, are non-linear and not fully understood. This has severely limited the understanding on the impacts of wildfires, and, as a consequence, current runoff-erosion models are poorly adapted to recently burned forest conditions. Furthermore, while post-fire forestry operations and, to a lesser extent, post-fire soil conservation measures are commonly applied, their hydrological and erosion impacts continue poorly known, hampering decision-making by land owners and managers. Past post-wildfire research in Portugal has involved simple adaptations of plot-scale runoff-erosion models to post-fire conditions. This follow-up study focusses on model adaptation to selected post-fire soil conservation measures. To this end, full stock is taken of various datasets collected by several (past and ongoing research projects. The selected model is the Morgan-Morgan-Finney model (MMF, Morgan,2001), which already proved its suitability for post-fire conditions in Portugal (Vieira et al, 2010, 2014) as well as NW-Spain ( Fernández et al., 2010). The present results concerned runoff and erosion different burn severities and various post-fire mitigation treatments (mulch, hydromulch, needle cast, barriers), focussing on the plot and field scale. The results for both the first and the second year following the wildfire revealed good model efficiency, not only for burned and untreated conditions but also for burned and treated conditions. These results thus reinforced earlier findings that MMF is a suitable model for the envisaged post-fire soil erosion assessment tool, coined "FEMME". The data used for post-fire soil erosion calibration with the MMF already allows the delineation of the post-fire management FEMME tool. Nevertheless, further model assessment will address additional post-fire forestry operations (e.g. plowing) as well as upscaling to the catchment scale with the MMF model and compare it with the SWAT model.

Summaries of BFRL fire research in-house projects and grants, 1993

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jason, Nora H.

1993-09-01

The report describes the fire research projects performed in the Building and Fire Research Laboratory (BFRL) and under its extramural grants program during fiscal year 1993. The BFRL Fire Research Program has directed its efforts under three program thrusts. The in-house priority projects, grants, and externally-funded efforts thus form an integrated, focussed ensemble. The publication is organized along those lines: fire risk and hazard prediction - carbon monoxide prediction, turbulent combustion, soot, engineering analysis, fire hazard assessment, and large fires; fire safety of products and materials - materials combustion, furniture flammability, and wall and ceiling fires; and advanced technologies for fire sensing and control - fire detection and fire suppression. For the convenience of the reader, an alphabetical listing of all grants is contained in Part 2.0.

Color model and method for video fire flame and smoke detection using Fisher linear discriminant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yuan; Jie, Li; Jun, Fang; Yongming, Zhang

2013-02-01

Video fire detection is playing an increasingly important role in our life. But recent research is often based on a traditional RGB color model used to analyze the flame, which may be not the optimal color space for fire recognition. It is worse when we research smoke simply using gray images instead of color ones. We clarify the importance of color information for fire detection. We present a fire discriminant color (FDC) model for flame or smoke recognition based on color images. The FDC models aim to unify fire color image representation and fire recognition task into one framework. With the definition of between-class scatter matrices and within-class scatter matrices of Fisher linear discriminant, the proposed models seek to obtain one color-space-transform matrix and a discriminate projection basis vector by maximizing the ratio of these two scatter matrices. First, an iterative basic algorithm is designed to get one-component color space transformed from RGB. Then, a general algorithm is extended to generate three-component color space for further improvement. Moreover, we propose a method for video fire detection based on the models using the kNN classifier. To evaluate the recognition performance, we create a database including flame, smoke, and nonfire images for training and testing. The test experiments show that the proposed model achieves a flame verification rate receiver operating characteristic (ROC I) of 97.5% at a false alarm rate (FAR) of 1.06% and a smoke verification rate (ROC II) of 91.5% at a FAR of 1.2%, and lots of fire video experiments demonstrate that our method reaches a high accuracy for fire recognition.

Rx-CADRE (Prescribed Fire Combustion-Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiments) collaborative research in the core fire sciences

Treesearch

D. Jimenez; B. Butler; K. Hiers; R. Ottmar; M. Dickinson; R. Kremens; J. O' Brien; A. Hudak; C. Clements

2009-01-01

The Rx-CADRE project was the combination of local and national fire expertise in the field of core fire research. The project brought together approximately 30 fire scientists from six geographic regions and seven diff erent agencies. The project objectives were to demonstrate the capacity for collaborative research by bringing together individuals and teams with a...

Thinning and prescribed fire and projected trends in wood product potential, financial return, and fire hazard in New Mexico.

Treesearch

Roger D. Fight; R. James Barbour; Glenn Christensen; Guy L. Pinjuv; Rao V. Nagubadi

2004-01-01

This work was undertaken under a joint fire science project "Assessing the need, costs, and potential benefits of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments to reduce fire hazard." This paper compares the future mix of timber projects under two treatment scenarios for New Mexico.We developed and demonstrated an analytical method that uses readily available...

Perspectives on Fire Research Collaboration in Siberia: What Have We Learned; Why Does It Matter; and Where Do We Go from Here?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conard, S. G.

2010-12-01

My first experience of the vast taiga forests of Russia, and my first chance to meet and work with Russian fire researchers, was at a 1993 conference and field experiment planned jointly by Johann G. Goldammer from Germany and Valentin V. Furyaev from Russia. This meeting was the beginning of a long and fruitful collaboration among US, Canadian, and Russian fire scientists. We all became increasingly aware of the global signifiance of the circumpolar boreal zone, and of the need for better information on the extent and effects of boreal fires. Wildfires are the dominant disturbance regime in the Russian boreal zone, burning 10 to 20 million hectares per year. These fires are a significant source of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols. Our research team published some of the first remote-sensing based estimates of the extent of fire in Russia and of the potential variability in emissions that could result from different burning conditions. Through a series of 20 prescribed burns we were able to mimic a wide range of burning conditions and obtain information on the impacts on soils, vegetation, and fuel consumption. Based on these experimental fires, we have modeled the effects of weather and fuels on fuel consumption and other factors, and related fire characteristics to emissions, carbon stocks, and soil and vegetation processes. For the past 10 years, we have focused on the ecosystem effects of fires of varying severity in the Scots pine and mixed larch forests of central Siberia, on improved remote-sensing based estimates of burned area and fire effects, and on relating fire weather indices to fire potential and fuel consumption. Logging is an increasingly important disturbance in Russia’s forests, and logged sites, with their high fuel loads seem particularly susceptible to fire. We are currently studying interactions between logging and fire, with an emphasis on the differences in fuel consumption, emissions, and carbon stocks when fires burn in logged and unlogged areas. Fire activity and emissions are projected to increase substantially in the boreal zone as climate warms. We are currently working to develop a 30-yr fire record for Siberia based on satellite data. We will integrate these data with historic fire weather, emissions, and vegetation data to estimate fuel consumption and emissions from fires in Siberia from 1980 to 2010. We will reconstruct past fire regimes using dendrochronology data for selected sub-regions. The relationships derived through this work will provide a basis for projecting the future effects of changing climate on fire patterns, emissions and carbon cycle in Siberia. This project will provide critical information for input to global change models and for analysis of the regional and global impacts of changing fire regimes in the boreal zone.

Findings of a review of spacecraft fire safety needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G. E.; Catton, I.; Paulos, T.; Paxton, K.; Jones, S.

1992-01-01

Discussions from a workshop to guide UCLA and NASA investigators on the state of knowledge and perceived needs in spacecraft fire safety and its risk management are reviewed, for an introduction to an analytical and experimental project in this field. The report summarizes the workshop discussions and includes the visual aids used in the presentations. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods, which are currently not used, would be of great value to the designs and operation of future human-crew spacecraft. Key points in the discussions were the importance of understanding and testing smoldering as a likely fire scenario in space and the need for smoke damage modeling, since many fire-risk models ignore this mechanism and consider only heat damage.

Assessing the risk of ignition in the Russian far east within a modeling framework of fire threat.

PubMed

Loboda, Tatiana V; Csiszar, Ivan A

2007-04-01

The forests of high biological importance in the Russian Far East (RFE) have been experiencing increasing pressure from growing demands for natural resources under the changing economy of post-Soviet Russia. This pressure is further amplified by the rising threat of large and catastrophic fire occurrence, which threatens both the resources and the economic potential of the region. In this paper we introduce a conceptual Fire Threat Model (FTM) and use it to provide quantitative assessment of the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East. The remotely sensed data driven FTM is aimed at evaluating potential wildland fire occurrence and its impact and recovery potential for a given resource. This model is intended for use by resource managers to assist in assessing current levels of fire threat to a given resource, projecting the changes in fire threat under changing climate and land use, and evaluating the efficiency of various management approaches aimed at minimizing the fire impact. Risk of ignition (one of the major uncertainties within fire threat modeling) was analyzed using the MODIS active fire product. The risk of ignition in the RFE is shown to be highly variable in spatial and temporal domains. However, the number of ignition points is not directly proportional to the amount of fire occurrence in the area. Fire ignitions in the RFE are strongly linked to anthropogenic activity (transportation routes, settlements, and land use). An increase in the number of fire ignitions during summer months could be attributed to (1) disruption of the summer monsoons and subsequent changes in fire weather and (2) an increase in natural sources of fire ignitions.

Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

2011-12-01

Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of area impacted by fire from the total available area within a given value of the Fire Occurrence Index (FOI) increased from 9.e-06 at FOI < 3 to 28.e-06 at 25 < FOI <= 28. Additionally, the model has revealed a new important relationship between fire occurrence, anthropogenic activity, and fire weather. Data analysis has demonstrated that human activity can alter the expected weather/fire occurrence relationships and result in considerable modifications of fire regimes contrary to the assumed ecological parameters. Specifically, between 2001 and 2009 over 50% of total fire impacted area burned during the low fire danger conditions (Canadian Fire Weather Index < 5). These findings and the FOM capabilities offer a new theoretical construct and an advanced tool for assessing the potential impacts of climate changes on fire regimes, particularly within landscapes which are impacted strongly by human activities. Future development of the FOM will focus on ingesting and internal downscaling of climate variables produced by General or Regional Circulation Models to develop scenarios of potential future change in fire occurrence under the influence of projected climate change at the appropriate regional or landscape scales.

Wildfires effects on soils: water repellency, NIR models and post-fire treatments. My personal view (SSS Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcenegui, Victoria

2017-04-01

I first was intrigued by fire, because all summers we had some of them in our location, and then I was involve in fire effects on soils. We had, and also have, a lot of question to answer. I am absolutely sure that soil science was my best choice. Soils are amazing, a lot of things are happening in soils. Soils and fire, are my main research topics. I studied the immediately effect of fire on soils, focus on the effect of fire in soil water repellency and aggregate stability. Two physical properties that are crucial to post-fire soil response. I also construct NIR models to know the maximum temperature reached in soils. It is well known that temperature is a key factor affecting soils properties. Then, it is a really important tool to predict the temperature reached in a soil after a wildfire. Currently, I am involve in a project to investigate what are the best post-fire treatments in our soils and how this treatments affects soil properties.

Cyberpark 2000: Protected Areas Management Pilot Project. Satellite time series vegetation monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteleone, M.; Lanorte, A.; Lasaponara, R.

2009-04-01

Cyberpark 2000 is a project funded by the UE Regional Operating Program of the Apulia Region (2000-2006). The main objective of the Cyberpark 2000 project is to develop a new assessment model for the management and monitoring of protected areas in Foggia Province (Apulia Region) based on Information and Communication Technologies. The results herein described are placed inside the research activities finalized to develop an environmental monitoring system knowledge based on the use of satellite time series. This study include: - A- satellite time series of high spatial resolution data for supporting the analysis of fire static risk factors through land use mapping and spectral/quantitative characterization of vegetation fuels; - B- satellite time series of MODIS for supporting fire dynamic risk evaluation of study area - Integrated fire detection by using thermal imaging cameras placed on panoramic view-points; - C - integrated high spatial and high temporal satellite time series for supporting studies in change detection factors or anomalies in vegetation covers; - D - satellite time-series for monitoring: (i) post fire vegetation recovery and (ii) spatio/temporal vegetation dynamics in unburned and burned vegetation covers.

Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riley, Karin L.; Loehman, Rachel A.

2016-01-01

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of frequency and severity, and depending on the extent to which ecosystems are adapted) may maintain or restore ecosystem functionality; however, in areas that are highly departed from historical fire regimes or where there is disequilibrium between climate and vegetation, ecosystems may be rapidly and persistently altered by wildfires, especially those that burn under extreme conditions.

Recent Progress and Emerging Issues in Measuring and Modeling Biomass Burning Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokelson, R. J.; Stockwell, C.; Veres, P. R.; Hatch, L. E.; Barsanti, K. C.; Simpson, I. J.; Blake, D. R.; Alvarado, M.; Kreidenweis, S. M.; Robinson, A. L.; Akagi, S. K.; McMeeking, G. R.; Stone, E.; Gilman, J.; Warneke, C.; Sedlacek, A. J.; Kleinman, L. I.

2013-12-01

Nine recent multi-PI campaigns (6 airborne, 3 laboratory) have quantified biomass burning emissions and the subsequent smoke evolution in unprecedented detail. Among these projects were the Fourth Fire Lab at Missoula Experiment (FLAME-4) and the DOE airborne campaign BBOP (Biomass Burning Observation Project). Between 2009 and 2013 a large selection of fuels and ecosystems were probed including: (1) 21 US prescribed fires in pine forests, chaparral, and shrublands; (2) numerous wildfires in the Pacific Northwest of the US; (3) 77 lab fires burning fuels collected from the sites of the prescribed fires; and (4) 158 lab fires burning authentic fuels in traditional cooking fires and advanced stoves; peat from Indonesia, Canada, and North Carolina; savanna grasses from Africa; temperate grasses from the US; crop waste from the US; rice straw from Taiwan, China, Malaysia, and California; temperate and boreal forest fuels collected in Montana and Alaska; chaparral fuels from California; trash; and tires. Instrumentation for gases included: FTIR, PTR-TOF-MS, 2D-GC and whole air sampling. Particle measurements included filter sampling (with IC, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and GC-MS) and numerous real-time measurements such as: HR-AMS (high-resolution aerosol MS), SP-AMS (soot particle AMS), SP2 (single particle soot photometer), SP-MS (single particle MS), ice nuclei, CCN (cloud condensation nuclei), water soluble OC, size distribution, and optical properties in the UV-VIS. New data include: emission factors for over 400 gases, black carbon (BC), brown carbon (BrC), organic aerosol (OA), ions, metals, EC, and OC; and details of particle morphology, mixing state, optical properties, size distributions, and cloud nucleating activity. Large concentrations (several ppm) of monoterpenes were present in fresh smoke. About 30-70% of the initially emitted gas-phase non-methane organic compounds were semivolatile and could not be identified with current technology. The detection rate for the sampled US prescribed fires was zero by burned area and <30% by active fire detection. Smoke evolution was measured for numerous gas-phase precursors and products, ozone, OA, ions, and BC and BrC mixing state. BC particles were coated within one hour and the smoke evolution was, in general, strongly impacted by the unidentified low volatility gases. An informative synthesis of lab and field fire data with fuels from the same sites was carried out. A preliminary comparison of wildfire and prescribed fire emissions will be presented. Novel schemes are under development to summarize the new emissions data for models, with limited mechanisms and parameterize fast, sub-grid processes. Key current issues to be discussed include: packaging/parameterizing the recent explosion of emissions/evolution data for use in model mechanisms; addressing fires not detected from space; addressing the large amount of unidentified semi-volatile gases emitted by all fires; and developing appropriate airborne and ground-based sampling scales/strategies for local-global models. We briefly summarize a recently funded project that will sample emissions and quantify biomass consumption by peat fires in Indonesia and a pending proposal for comprehensive sampling of cooking fires, brick kilns, garbage burning, diesel super-emitters, etc. in South Asia.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Based Investigation of Sensitivity of Furnace Operational Conditions to Burner Flow Controls

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marc Cremer; Kirsi St. Marie; Dave Wang

2003-04-30

This is the first Semiannual Technical Report for DOE Cooperative Agreement No: DE-FC26-02NT41580. The goal of this project is to systematically assess the sensitivity of furnace operational conditions to burner air and fuel flows in coal fired utility boilers. Our approach is to utilize existing baseline furnace models that have been constructed using Reaction Engineering International's (REI) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software. Using CFD analyses provides the ability to carry out a carefully controlled virtual experiment to characterize the sensitivity of NOx emissions, unburned carbon (UBC), furnace exit CO (FECO), furnace exit temperature (FEGT), and waterwall deposition to burner flowmore » controls. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is providing co-funding for this program, and instrument and controls experts from EPRI's Instrument and Controls (I&C) Center are active participants in this project. This program contains multiple tasks and good progress is being made on all fronts. A project kickoff meeting was held in conjunction with NETL's 2002 Sensors and Control Program Portfolio Review and Roadmapping Workshop, in Pittsburgh, PA during October 15-16, 2002. Dr. Marc Cremer, REI, and Dr. Paul Wolff, EPRI I&C, both attended and met with the project COR, Susan Maley. Following the review of REI's database of wall-fired coal units, the project team selected a front wall fired 150 MW unit with a Riley Low NOx firing system including overfire air for evaluation. In addition, a test matrix outlining approximately 25 simulations involving variations in burner secondary air flows, and coal and primary air flows was constructed. During the reporting period, twenty-two simulations have been completed, summarized, and tabulated for sensitivity analysis. Based on these results, the team is developing a suitable approach for quantifying the sensitivity coefficients associated with the parametric tests. Some of the results of the CFD simulations of the single wall fired unit were presented in a technical paper entitled, ''CFD Investigation of the Sensitivity of Furnace Operational Conditions to Burner Flow Controls,'' presented at the 28th International Technical Conference on Coal Utilization and Fuel Systems in Clearwater, FL March 9-14, 2003. In addition to the work completed on the single wall fired unit, the project team made the selection of a 580 MW opposed wall fired unit to be the subject of evaluation in this program. Work is in progress to update the baseline model of this unit so that the parametric simulations can be initiated.« less

Integrating remotely sensed fires for predicting deforestation for REDD.

PubMed

Armenteras, Dolors; Gibbes, Cerian; Anaya, Jesús A; Dávalos, Liliana M

2017-06-01

Fire is an important tool in tropical forest management, as it alters forest composition, structure, and the carbon budget. The United Nations program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to sustainably manage forests, as well as to conserve and enhance their carbon stocks. Despite the crucial role of fire management, decision-making on REDD+ interventions fails to systematically include fires. Here, we address this critical knowledge gap in two ways. First, we review REDD+ projects and programs to assess the inclusion of fires in monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems. Second, we model the relationship between fire and forest for a pilot site in Colombia using near-real-time (NRT) fire monitoring data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The literature review revealed fire remains to be incorporated as a key component of MRV systems. Spatially explicit modeling of land use change showed the probability of deforestation declined sharply with increasing distance to the nearest fire the preceding year (multi-year model area under the curve [AUC] 0.82). Deforestation predictions based on the model performed better than the official REDD early-warning system. The model AUC for 2013 and 2014 was 0.81, compared to 0.52 for the early-warning system in 2013 and 0.68 in 2014. This demonstrates NRT fire monitoring is a powerful tool to predict sites of forest deforestation. Applying new, publicly available, and open-access NRT fire data should be an essential element of early-warning systems to detect and prevent deforestation. Our results provide tools for improving both the current MRV systems, and the deforestation early-warning system in Colombia. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling effects of climate change and fire management on western white pine (Pinus monticola) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Jason A. Clark; Robert E. Keane

2011-01-01

Climate change is projected to profoundly influence vegetation patterns and community compositions, either directly through increased species mortality and shifts in species distributions or indirectly through disturbance dynamics such as increased wildfire activity and extent, shifting fire regimes, and pathogenesis. Mountainous landscapes have been shown to be...

Socio-ecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire-climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, CA, 1600-2015 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, V.; Taylor, A. H.; Skinner, C. N.; Stephens, S.

2016-12-01

In California, large wildfires cause significant socio-ecological impacts and they incur high federal funding costs for fire suppression. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but anthropogenic effects can modulate or even override climatic effects causing large uncertainty in fire projections. We developed a 415-year fire history record (1600-2015 CE) based on tree-ring fire-scar data from 29 sites throughout the Sierra Nevada, California. Changes in socio-ecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove large historical fire regime shifts in our record and socio-ecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation - following mission establishment ca. 1775 CE - reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American immigration (ca. 1865 CE), area burned declined and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1900 CE). The past anthropogenic modulation of fire-climate relationships underscores the need for nuanced representations of human-fire interactions to improve the skill of future fire-climate projections. In California, large wildfires cause significant socio-ecological impacts and they incur high federal funding costs for fire suppression. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but anthropogenic effects can modulate or even override climatic effects causing large uncertainty in fire projections. We developed a 415-year fire history record (1600-2015 CE) based on tree-ring fire-scar data from 29 sites throughout the Sierra Nevada, California. Changes in socio-ecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove large historical fire regime shifts in our record and socio-ecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation - following mission establishment ca. 1775 CE - reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American immigration (ca. 1865 CE), area burned declined and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1900 CE). The past anthropogenic modulation of fire-climate relationships underscores the need for nuanced representations of human-fire interactions to improve the skill of future fire-climate projections.

Back to the future: assessing accuracy and sensitivity of a forest growth model

Treesearch

Susan Hummel; Paul Meznarich

2014-01-01

The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is a widely used computer model that projects forest growth and predicts the effects of disturbances such as fire, insects, harvests, or disease. Land managers often use these projections to decide among silvicultural options and estimate the potential effects of these options on forest conditions. Despite FVS's popularity,...

Evaluating fire danger in Brazilian biomes: present and future patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Patrícia; Bastos, Ana; DaCamara, Carlos; Libonati, Renata

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on fire occurrence and activity, particularly in Brazil, a region known to be fire-prone [1]. The Brazilian savanna, commonly referred to as cerrado, is a fire-adapted biome covering more than 20% of the country's total area. It presents the highest numbers of fire events, making it particularly susceptible to changes in climate. It is thus essential to understand the present fire regimes in Brazilian biomes, in order to better evaluate future patterns. The CPTEC/INPE, the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research at the Brazilian National Institute of Space Research developed a fire danger index based on the occurrence of hundreds of thousands of fire events in the main Brazilian biomes [2]: the Meteorological Fire Danger Index (MFDI). This index indicates the predisposition of vegetation to be burned on a given day, for given climate conditions preceding that day. It relies on daily values of air temperature, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation and vegetation cover. In this study we aim to access the capability of the MFDI to accurately replicate present fire conditions for different biomes, with a special focus on cerrado. To this end, we assess the link between the MFDI as calculated by three different reanalysis (ERA-Interim, NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 and MERRA-2) and the observed burned area. We further calculate the validated MFDI using a regional climate model, the RCA4 as forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX, to understand the ability of the model to characterize present fire danger. Finally, the need to calibrate the model to better characterize future fire danger was also evaluated. This work was developed within the framework of the Brazilian Fire-Land-Atmosphere System (BrFLAS) Project financed by the Portuguese and Brazilian science foundations, FCT and FAPESP (project references FAPESP/1389/2014 and 2014/20042-2). [1] KRAWCHUK, M.A.; MORITZ, M.A.; PARISIEN, M.A.; VAN DORN, J.; HAYHOE, K. Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire. PLOS ONE, v. 4, n. 4, e5102, 2009. [2] SETZER, A.W.; SISMANOGLU, R.A. Risco de Fogo: Metodologia do Cálculo - Descrição sucinta da Versão 9. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), 2012. Available at: . Accessed on: 10 jan. 2017.

The Fate of Amazonian Ecosystems over the Coming Century Arising from Changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2 and Land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorcroft, P. R.; Zhang, K.; Castanho, A. D. D. A.; Galbraith, D.; Moghim, S.; Levine, N. M.; Bras, R. L.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Malhi, Y.; Longo, M.; Knox, R. G.; McKnight, S. L.; Wang, J.

2014-12-01

There is considerable interest and uncertainty regarding the expected fate of the Amazon over the coming century in face of the combined impacts of climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and on-going land transformation in the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under projected climate, CO2 and land-use change in the 21st century using three state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) driven by three representative, bias-corrected GCM climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under the SRES A2 scenario, coupled with two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change depend strongly on the direction and severity of projected changes in precipitation regimes within the region: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%; however, the models predict that CO2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and as a result sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and changes in fire frequency are predicted cause additional aboveground live biomass loss and changes in forest extent. The relative impact of land-use and fire dynamics versus the impacts of climate and CO2 on the Amazon varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenarios used and on the terrestrial biosphere model, highlighting the importance of improved understanding of all four factors -- future climate, CO2 fertilization effects, fire and land-use -- to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.

Data Filtering of Western Hemisphere GOES Wildfire ABBA Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theisen, M.; Prins, E.; Schmidt, C.; Reid, J. S.; Hunter, J.; Westphal, D.

2002-05-01

The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE') project was developed to model biomass burning emissions, transport, and radiative effects in real time. The model relies on data from the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellites (GOES-8, GOES-10), that is generated by the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF ABBA). In an attempt to develop the most accurate modeling system the data set needs to be filtered to distinguish the true fire pixels from false alarms. False alarms occur due to reflection of solar radiation off of standing water, surface structure variances, and heat anomalies. The Reoccurring Fire Filtering algorithm (ReFF) was developed to address such false alarms by filtering data dependent on reoccurrence, location in relation to region and satellite, as well as heat intensity. WF ABBA data for the year 2000 during the peak of the burning season were analyzed using ReFF. The analysis resulted in a 45% decrease in North America and only a 15% decrease in South America, respectively, in total fire pixel occurrence. The lower percentage decrease in South America is a result of fires burning for longer periods of time, less surface variance, as well as an increase in heat intensity of fires for that region. Also fires are so prevalent in the region that multiple fires may coexist in the same 4-kilometer pixel.

Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Syphard, Alexandra D; Franklin, Janet; Anderson, Kurt E; Akçakaya, H Resit; Mizerek, Toni; Winchell, Clark; Regan, Helen M

2014-08-01

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Deformation and Heat Transfer on Three Sides Protected Beams under Fire Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imran, M.; Liew, M. S.; Garcia, E. M.; Nasif, M. S.; Yassin, A. Y. M.; Niazi, U. M.

2018-04-01

Fire accidents are common in oil and gas industry. The application of passive fire protection (PFP) is a costly solution. The PFP is applied only on critical structural members to optimise project cost. In some cases, beams cannot be protected from the top flange in order to accommodate for the placement of pipe supports and grating. It is important to understand the thermal and mechanical response of beam under such condition. This paper discusses the response of steel beam under ISO 834 fire protected, unprotected and three sides protected beams. The model validated against an experimental study. The experimental study has shown good agreement with FE model. The study revealed that the beams protected from three sides heat-up faster compare to fully protected beam showing different temperature gradient. However, the affects load carrying capacity are insignificant under ISO 834 fire.

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Dry forests of the Northeastern Cascades Fire and Fire Surrogate project site, Mission Creek, Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Treesearch

James K. Agee; John F. (comps.) Lehmkuhl

2009-01-01

The Fire and Fire Surrogate (FFS) project is a large long-term metastudy established to assess the effectiveness and ecological impacts of burning and fire "surrogates" such as cuttings and mechanical fuel treatments that are used instead of fire, or in combination with fire, to restore dry forests. One of the 13 national FFS sites is the Northeastern...

Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

2006-12-01

The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Advanced spacecraft fire safety: Proposed projects and program plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Youngblood, Wallace W.; Vedha-Nayagam, M.

1989-01-01

A detailed review identifies spacecraft fire safety issues and the efforts for their resolution, particularly for the threats posed by the increased on-orbit duration, size, and complexity of the Space Station Freedom. Suggestions provided by a survey of Wyle consultants and outside fire safety experts were combined into 30 research and engineering projects. The projects were then prioritized with respect to urgency to meet Freedom design goals, status of enabling technology, cost, and so on, to yield 14 highest priority projects, described in terms of background, work breakdown structure, and schedule. These highest priority projects can be grouped into the thematic areas of fire detection, fire extinguishment, risk assessment, toxicology and human effects, and ground based testing. Recommendations for overall program management stress the need for NASA Headquarters and field center coordination, with information exchange through spacecraft fire safety oversight committees.

Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century

PubMed Central

Yue, Xu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2013-01-01

We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21st century (2046–2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area burned. The regressions explain 0.25–0.60 of the variance in observed annual area burned during 1980–2004, depending on the ecoregion. We also parameterize daily area burned with temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. This approach explains ~0.5 of the variance in observed area burned over forest ecoregions but shows no predictive capability in the semi-arid regions of Nevada and California. By applying the meteorological fields from 15 climate models to our fire prediction models, we quantify the robustness of our wildfire projections at mid-century. We calculate increases of 24–124% in area burned using regressions and 63–169% with the parameterization. Our projections are most robust in the southwestern desert, where all GCMs predict significant (p<0.05) meteorological changes. For forested ecoregions, more GCMs predict significant increases in future area burned with the parameterization than with the regressions, because the latter approach is sensitive to hydrological variables that show large inter-model variability in the climate projections. The parameterization predicts that the fire season lengthens by 23 days in the warmer and drier climate at mid-century. Using a chemical transport model, we find that wildfire emissions will increase summertime surface organic carbon aerosol over the western United States by 46–70% and black carbon by 20–27% at midcentury, relative to the present day. The pollution is most enhanced during extreme episodes: above the 84th percentile of concentrations, OC increases by ~90% and BC by ~50%, while visibility decreases from 130 km to 100 km in 32 Federal Class 1 areas in Rocky Mountains Forest. PMID:24015109

Quantifying Hydroperiod, Fire and Nutrient Effects on the Composition of Plant Communities in Marl Prairie of the Everglades: a Joint Probability Method Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, L.

2017-12-01

Plant community can be simultaneously affected by human activities and climate changes, and quantifying and predicting this combined effect on plant community by appropriate model framework which is validated by field data is complex, but very useful to conservation management. Plant communities in the Everglades provide an unique set of conditions to develop and validate this model framework, because they are both experiencing intensive effects of human activities (such as changing hydroperiod by drainage and restoration projects, nutrients from upstream agriculture, prescribed fire, etc.) and climate changes (such as warming, changing precipitation patter, sea level rise, etc.). More importantly, previous research attention focuses on plant communities in slough ecosystem (including ridge, slough and their tree islands), very few studies consider the marl prairie ecosystem. Comparing with slough ecosystem featured by remaining consistently flooded almost year-round, marl prairie has relatively shorter hydroperiod (just in wet-season of one year). Therefore, plant communities of marl prairie may receive more impacts from hydroperiod change. In addition to hydroperiod, fire and nutrients also affect the plant communities in the marl prairie. Therefore, to quantify the combined effects of water level, fire, and nutrients on the composition of the plant communities, we are developing a joint probability method based vegetation dynamic model. Further, the model is being validated by field data about changes of vegetation assemblage along environmental gradients in the marl prairie. Our poster showed preliminary data from our current project.

Unmanned Vehicle Material Flammability Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urban, David; Ruff, Gary A.; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; T’ien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Cowlard, Adam; Rouvreau, Sebastian; Minster, Olivier; Toth, Balazs; Legros, Guillaume;

Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA.

Treesearch

B.C. Wales; L.H. Suring; M.A. Hemstrom

2007-01-01

Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior Western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and...

Catchment-scale Validation of a Physically-based, Post-fire Runoff and Erosion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, D.; Brooks, E. S.; Robichaud, P. R.; Dobre, M.; Brown, R. E.; Wagenbrenner, J.

2017-12-01

The cascading consequences of fire-induced ecological changes have profound impacts on both natural and managed forest ecosystems. Forest managers tasked with implementing post-fire mitigation strategies need robust tools to evaluate the effectiveness of their decisions, particularly those affecting hydrological recovery. Various hillslope-scale interfaces of the physically-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model have been successfully validated for this purpose using fire-effected plot experiments, however these interfaces are explicitly designed to simulate single hillslopes. Spatially-distributed, catchment-scale WEPP interfaces have been developed over the past decade, however none have been validated for post-fire simulations, posing a barrier to adoption for forest managers. In this validation study, we compare WEPP simulations with pre- and post-fire hydrological records for three forested catchments (W. Willow, N. Thomas, and S. Thomas) that burned in the 2011 Wallow Fire in Northeastern Arizona, USA. Simulations were conducted using two approaches; the first using automatically created inputs from an online, spatial, post-fire WEPP interface, and the second using manually created inputs which incorporate the spatial variability of fire effects observed in the field. Both approaches were compared to five years of observed post-fire sediment and flow data to assess goodness of fit.

Chapter 9 - Vegetation succession modeling for the LANDFIRE Prototype Project

Treesearch

Donald Long; B. John (Jack) Losensky; Donald Bedunah

2006-01-01

One of the main objectives of the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, was to determine departure of current vegetation conditions from the range and variation of conditions that existed during the historical era identified in the LANDFIRE guidelines as 1600-1900 A.D. (Keane and Rollins, Ch. 3). In...

Chapter 6 - Developing the LANDFIRE Vegetation and Biophysical Settings Map Unit Classifications for the LANDFIRE Prototype Project

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Long; Melanie Miller; James P. Menakis; Robert E. Keane

2006-01-01

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, required a system for classifying vegetation composition, biophysical settings, and vegetation structure to facilitate the mapping of vegetation and wildland fuel characteristics and the simulation of vegetation dynamics using landscape modeling. We developed...

Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; John T. Abatzoglou; E. Natasha Stavros; Narasimhan K. Larkin

2014-01-01

Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF >= 50,000 ac~20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p

A Neuron-Based Model of Sleep-Wake Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Postnova, Svetlana; Peters, Achim; Braun, Hans

2008-03-01

In recent years it was discovered that a neuropeptide orexin/hypocretin plays a main role in sleep processes. This peptide is produced by the neurons in the lateral hypothalamus, which project to almost all brain areas. We present a computational model of sleep-wake cycles, which is based on the Hodgkin-Huxley type neurons and considers reciprocal glutaminergic projections between the lateral hypothalamus and the prefrontal cortex. Orexin is released as a neuromodulator and is required to keep the neurons firing, which corresponds to the wake state. When orexin is depleted the neurons are getting silent as observed in the sleep state. They can be reactivated by the circadian signal from the suprachiasmatic nucleus and/or external stimuli (alarm clock). Orexin projections to the thalamocortical neurons also can account for their transition from tonic firing activity during wakefulness to synchronized burst discharges during sleep.

The scientific foundation of the LANDFIRE Prototype Project [Chapter 3

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Matthew Rollins

2006-01-01

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, originated from a recent mapping project that developed a set of coarse-scale spatial data layers for wildland fire management describing fire hazard and ecological status for the conterminous United States (Hardy and others 2001; Schmidt and others 2002; www. fs...

Predicting fire activity in the US over the next 50 years using new IPCC climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

2012-12-01

Fire is an integral part of the Earth system with both direct and indirect effects on terrestrial ecosystems, the atmosphere, and human societies (Bowman et al. 2009). Climate conditions regulate fire activities through a variety of ways, e.g., influencing the conditions for ignition and fire spread, changing vegetation growth and decay and thus the accumulation of fuels for combustion (Arora and Boer 2005). Our recent study disclosed the burned area (BA) in US is strongly correlated with potential evaporation (PE), a measurement of climatic dryness derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) climate data (Morton et al. 2012). The correlation varies spatially and temporally. With regard to fire of peak fire seasons, Northwestern US, Great Plains and Alaska have the strongest BA/PE relationship. Using the recently released the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) Version 3 (van der Werf et al. 2010), we showed increasing BA in the last decade in most of NCA regions. Longer time series of Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) (Eidenshink et al. 2007) data showed the increasing trends occurred in all NCA regions from 1984 to 2010. This relationship between BA and PE provides us the basis to predict the future fire activities in the projected climate conditions. In this study, we build spatially explicit predictors using the historic PE/BA relationship. PE from 2011 to 2060 is calculated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and the historic PE/BA relationship is then used to estimate BA. This study examines the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of the future US fires driven by new climate predictions for the next 50 years. Reference: Arora, V.K., & Boer, G.J. (2005). Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 110 Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Carlson, J.M., Cochrane, M.A., D'Antonio, C.M., DeFries, R.S., Doyle, J.C., Harrison, S.P., Johnston, F.H., Keeley, J.E., Krawchuk, M.A., Kull, C.A., Marston, J.B., Moritz, M.A., Prentice, I.C., Roos, C.I., Scott, A.C., Swetnam, T.W., van der Werf, G.R., & Pyne, S.J. (2009). Fire in the Earth System. Science, 324, 481-484 Eidenshink, J., Schwind, B., Brewer, K., Zhu, Z.-L., Quayle, B., & Howard, S. (2007). A project for monitoring trends in burn severity. Fire Ecology Special Issue, 3 Morton, D.C., Collatz, G.J., Wang, D., Randerson, J.T., Giglio, L., & Chen, Y. (2012). Satellite-based assessment of climate controls on US burned area. Biogeosciences Discussion, 9, 7853-7892 van der Werf, G.R., Randerson, J.T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G.J., Mu, M., Kasibhatla, P.S., Morton, D.C., DeFries, R.S., Jin, Y., & van Leeuwen, T.T. (2010). Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 11707-11735

Human impact on wildfires varies between regions and with vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasslop, Gitta; Kloster, Silvia

2017-11-01

We assess the influence of humans on burned area simulated with a dynamic global vegetation model. The human impact in the model is based on population density and cropland fraction, which were identified as important drivers of burned area in analyses of global datasets, and are commonly used in global models. After an evaluation of the sensitivity to these two variables we extend the model by including an additional effect of the cropland fraction on the fire duration. The general pattern of human influence is similar in both model versions: the strongest human impact is found in regions with intermediate productivity, where fire occurrence is not limited by fuel load or climatic conditions. Human effects in the model increases burned area in the tropics, while in temperate regions burned area is reduced. While the population density is similar on average for the tropical and temperate regions, the cropland fraction is higher in temperate regions, and leads to a strong suppression of fire. The model shows a low human impact in the boreal region, where both population density and cropland fraction is very low and the climatic conditions, as well as the vegetation productivity limit fire. Previous studies attributed a decrease in fire activity found in global charcoal datasets to human activity. This is confirmed by our simulations, which only show a decrease in burned area when the human influence on fire is accounted for, and not with only natural effects on fires. We assess how the vegetation-fire feedback influences the results, by comparing simulations with dynamic vegetation biogeography to simulations with prescribed vegetation. The vegetation-fire feedback increases the human impact on burned area by 10% for present day conditions. These results emphasize that projections of burned area need to account for the interactions between fire, climate, vegetation and humans.

Development of a model to predict ash transport and water pollution risk in fire-affected environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neris, Jonay; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Robichaud, Peter R.

2017-04-01

An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

First application of the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion risk in fire-affected volcanic areas in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neris, Jonay; Robichaud, Peter R.; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Notario del Pino, Jesús S.; Lado, Marcos

2017-04-01

An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System: Providing information for carbon cycle studies with open source geospatial tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H.; Erickson, T.; McKenzie, D.

2008-12-01

A major goal of the North American Carbon Program is to resolve uncertainties in understanding and managing the carbon cycle of North America. As carbon modeling tools become more comprehensive and spatially oriented, accurate datasets to spatially quantify carbon emissions from fire are needed, and these data resources need to be accessible to users for decision-making. Under a new NASA Carbon Cycle Science project, Drs. Nancy French and Tyler Erickson, of the Michigan Technological University, Michigan Tech Research Institute (MTRI), are teaming with specialists with the USDA Forest Service Fire and Environmental Research Applications (FERA) team to provide information for mapping fire-derived carbon emissions to users. The project focus includes development of a web-based system to provide spatially resolved fire emissions estimates for North America in a user-friendly environment. The web-based Decision Support System will be based on a variety of open source technologies. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) raster map of fuels and MODIS-derived burned area vector maps will be processed using the Geographic Data Abstraction Library (GDAL) and OGR Simple Features Library. Tabular and spatial project data will be stored in a PostgreSQL/PostGIS, a spatially enabled relational database server. The browser-based user interface will be created using the Django web page framework to allow user input for the decision support system. The OpenLayers mapping framework will be used to provide users with interactive maps within the browser. In addition, the data products will be made available in standard open data formats such as KML, to allow for easy integration into other spatial models and data systems.

Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment: Coordination of a study to improve smoke modeling for fire operations within the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H. F.; Ottmar, R. D.; Brown, T. J.; Larkin, N. K.

2017-12-01

The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is an integrative research effort to identify and collect critical measurements to improve operational wildland fire and smoke prediction systems. FASMEE has two active phases and one suggested phase. Phase 1 is the analysis and planning process to assess the current state of fire-plume-smoke modeling and to determine the critical measurements required to evaluate and improve these operational fire and smoke models. As the major deliverable for Phase 1, a study plan has been completed that describes the measurement needs, field campaigns, and command, safety and air space de-confliction plans necessary to complete the FASMEE project. Phase 2 is a set of field campaigns to collect data during 2019-2022. Future Improvements would be a set of analyses and model improvements based on the data collected within Phase 2 that is dependent on identifying future funding sources. In this presentation, we will review the FASMEE Study Plan and detailed measurements and conditions expected for the four to five proposed research burns. The recommended measurements during Phase 2 span the four interrelated disciplines of FASMEE: fuels and consumption, fire behavior and energy, plume dynamics and meteorology, and smoke emissions, chemistry, and transport. Fuel type, condition, and consumption during wildland fire relates to several fire impacts including radiative heating, which provides the energy that drives fire dynamics. Local-scale meteorology is an important factor which relates to atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, and transport. Plume dynamics provide the connection between fire behavior and far-field smoke dispersion, because it determines the vertical distribution of the emissions. Guided by the data needs and science questions generated during Phase 1, three wildland fire campaigns were selected. These included the western wildfire campaign (rapid deployment aimed at western wildfires supporting NOAA, NASA, and NSF smoke flights), southwestern campaign (targeting high intensity prescribed fires), and southeastern campaign (targeting large and higher than average fuel loadings with important smoke management relevancy).

Climate change and long-term fire management impacts on Australian savannas.

PubMed

Scheiter, Simon; Higgins, Steven I; Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B

2015-02-01

Tropical savannas cover a large proportion of the Earth's land surface and many people are dependent on the ecosystem services that savannas supply. Their sustainable management is crucial. Owing to the complexity of savanna vegetation dynamics, climate change and land use impacts on savannas are highly uncertain. We used a dynamic vegetation model, the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (aDGVM), to project how climate change and fire management might influence future vegetation in northern Australian savannas. Under future climate conditions, vegetation can store more carbon than under ambient conditions. Changes in rainfall seasonality influence future carbon storage but do not turn vegetation into a carbon source, suggesting that CO₂ fertilization is the main driver of vegetation change. The application of prescribed fires with varying return intervals and burning season influences vegetation and fire impacts. Carbon sequestration is maximized with early dry season fires and long fire return intervals, while grass productivity is maximized with late dry season fires and intermediate fire return intervals. The study has implications for management policy across Australian savannas because it identifies how fire management strategies may influence grazing yield, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. This knowledge is crucial to maintaining important ecosystem services of Australian savannas. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Current and Future Impacts of Wildfires on PM2.5 and Public Health in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Strickland, M.; Fu, J. S.; Geng, G.; Chang, H. H.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, the Western United States has seen heightened wildfire activity, characterized by a higher frequency of large wildfires a longer fire season, larger fire size, and a greater total area burned. With projected temperature increases, soil moisture reduction, and more frequent air stagnation, the burden of wildfires on air quality and public health will likely increase. With state-of-the-art climate and air quality models; ground and satellite measurements; and detailed health information, we will investigate the impacts of historical and future wildfires on air quality and public health in Colorado under various climate change scenarios and population growth patterns. As the first step of this project, we developed a Bayesian fusion model with satellite aerosol, cloud and fire data as well as CMAQ simulation results to estimate PM2.5 and ozone concentrations during the fire season of 2011 - 2014 at 1 km spatial resolution. These exposure estimates will be used together with emergency department (ED) visits and acute hospitalizations data in Colorado to develop region-specific concentration-response (C-R) functions. These C-R functions in combination with projected future PM2.5 and O3 will be used in the EPA BenMAP framework to estimate the impacts of future wildfires on public health. This research addresses an important link between climate and aerosol research and could significantly increase our understanding of the implications of climate change for PM and public health in the Rocky Mountains Region.

Aerosol Microphysics and Radiation Integration

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-30

656-4769 email: reidj@nrlmry.navy.mil Award Number: N0001403WX20570 http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol/ http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/ flambe ...Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions ( FLAMBE ) project, which also provides NAAPS with a real-time biomass burning source function. In...Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions ( FLAMBE ) project are currently being utilized by internet community, Air quality/human health research

Bulgarian fuel models developed for implementation in FARSITE simulations for test cases in Zlatograd area

Treesearch

Nina Dobrinkova; LaWen Hollingsworth; Faith Ann Heinsch; Greg Dillon; Georgi Dobrinkov

2014-01-01

As a key component of the cross-border project between Bulgaria and Greece known as OUTLAND, a team from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and Rocky Mountain Research Station started a collaborative project to identify and describe various fuel types for a test area in Bulgaria in order to model fire behavior for recent wildfires. Although there have been various...

Developing statistical wildlife habitat relationships for assessing cumulative effects of fuels treatments: Final Report for Joint Fire Science Program Project

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin S. McKelvey

2006-01-01

The primary weakness in our current ability to evaluate future landscapes in terms of wildlife lies in the lack of quantitative models linking wildlife to forest stand conditions, including fuels treatments. This project focuses on 1) developing statistical wildlife habitat relationships models (WHR) utilizing Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and National Vegetation...

A Real-World Network Modeling Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-12

about the project, which accounts for a third of their class grade. As can be expected, giving substantial weight to the project increases active student...analysis, humanitarian aid warehouses, Israeli traffic analysis, London Olympic Games transport, medical evacuation, Monterey fire department...responsiveness, Monterey Peninsula evacuation, natural gas pipeline transport, rail transport of new cars, ski lifts for Keystone Colorado, small boat attack

Fire as Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rudolph, Robert N.

2011-01-01

In this article, the author describes a project that deals with fire production as an aspect of technology. The project challenges students to be survivors in a five-day classroom activity. Students research various materials and methods to produce fire without the use of matches or other modern combustion devices, then must create "fire" to keep…

Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

2018-01-01

This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

Web service tools in the era of forest fire management and elimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poursanidis, Dimitris; Kochilakis, Giorgos; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Varella, Vasiliki; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Eftychidis, Giorgos; Lagouvardos, Kostas

2014-10-01

Wildfires in forests and forested areas in South Europe, North America, Central Asia and Australia are a diachronic threat with crucial ecological, economic and social impacts. Last decade the frequency, the magnitude and the intensity of fires have increased even more because of the climate change. An efficient response to such disasters requires an effective planning, with an early detection system of the ignition area and an accurate prediction of fire propagation to support the rapid response mechanisms. For this reason, information systems able to predict and visualize the behavior of fires, are valuable tools for fire fighting. Such systems, able also to perform simulations that evaluate the fire development scenarios, based on weather conditions, become valuable Decision Support Tools for fire mitigation planning. A Web-based Information System (WIS) developed in the framework of the FLIRE (Floods and fire risk assessment and management) project, a LIFE+ co-funded by the European Commission research, is presented in this study. The FLIRE WIS use forest fuel maps which have been developed by using generalized fuel maps, satellite data and in-situ observations. Furthermore, it leverages data from meteorological stations and weather forecast from numerical models to feed the fire propagation model with the necessary for the simulations inputs and to visualize the model's results for user defined time periods and steps. The user has real-time access to FLIRE WIS via any web browser from any platform (PC, Laptop, Tablet, Smartphone).

Fuel type characterization and potential fire behavior estimation in Sardinia and Corsica islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V.; Pellizzaro, G.; Santoni, P.; Arca, B.; Ventura, A.; Salis, M.; Barboni, T.; Leroy, V.; Cancellieri, D.; Leoni, E.; Ferrat, L.; Perez, Y.; Duce, P.; Spano, D.

2012-04-01

Wildland fires represent a serious threat to forests and wooded areas of the Mediterranean Basin. As recorded by the European Commission (2009), during the last decade Southern Countries have experienced an annual average of about 50,000 forest fires and about 470,000 burned hectares. The factor that can be directly manipulated in order to minimize fire intensity and reduce other fire impacts, such as three mortality, smoke emission, and soil erosion, is wildland fuel. Fuel characteristics, such as vegetation cover, type, humidity status, and biomass and necromass loading are critical variables in affecting wildland fire occurrence, contributing to the spread, intensity, and severity of fires. Therefore, the availability of accurate fuel data at different spatial and temporal scales is needed for fire management applications, including fire behavior and danger prediction, fire fighting, fire effects simulation, and ecosystem simulation modeling. In this context, the main aims of our work are to describe the vegetation parameters involved in combustion processes and develop fire behavior fuel maps. The overall work plan is based firstly on the identification and description of the different fuel types mainly affected by fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) and Corsica (France) Islands, and secondly on the clusterization of the selected fuel types in relation to their potential fire behavior. In the first part of the work, the available time series of fire event perimeters and the land use map data were analyzed with the purpose of identifying the main land use types affected by fires. Thus, field sampling sites were randomly identified on the selected vegetation types and several fuel variables were collected (live and dead fuel load partitioned following Deeming et al., (1977), depth of fuel layer, plant cover, surface area-to-volume ratio, heat content). In the second part of the work, the potential fire behavior for every experimental site was simulated using BEHAVE fire behavior prediction system (Andrews, 1989) and experimental fuel data. Fire behavior was simulated by setting different weather scenarios representing the most frequent summer meteorological conditions. The simulation outputs (fireline intensity, rate of spread, flame length) were then analyzed for clustering the different fuel types in relation to their potential fire behavior. The results of this analysis can be used to produce fire behavior fuel maps that are important tools in evaluating fire hazard and risk for land management planning, locating and rating fuel treatments, and aiding in environmental assessments and fire danger programs modeling. This work is supported by FUME Project FP7-ENV-2009-1, Grant Agreement Number 243888 and Proterina-C Project, EU Italia-Francia Marittimo 2007-2013 Programme.

Simulating Fire Disturbance and Plant Mortality Using Antecedent Eco-hydrological Conditions to Inform a Physically Based Combustion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atchley, A. L.; Linn, R.; Middleton, R. S.; Runde, I.; Coon, E.; Michaletz, S. T.

2016-12-01

Wildfire is a complex agent of change that both affects and depends on eco-hydrological systems, thereby constituting a tightly linked system of disturbances and eco-hydrological conditions. For example, structure, build-up, and moisture content of fuel are dependent on eco-hydrological regimes, which impacts fire spread and intensity. Fire behavior, on the other hand, determines the severity and extent of eco-hydrological disturbance, often resulting in a mosaic of untouched, stressed, damaged, or completely destroyed vegetation within the fire perimeter. This in turn drives new eco-hydrological system behavior. The cycles of disturbance and recovery present a complex evolving system with many unknowns especially in the face of climate change that has implications for fire risk, water supply, and forest composition. Physically-based numerical experiments that attempt to capture the complex linkages between eco-hydrological regimes that affect fire behavior and the echo-hydrological response from those fire disturbances help build the understanding required to project how fire disturbance and eco-hydrological conditions coevolve over time. Here we explore the use of FIRETEC—a physically-based 3D combustion model that solves conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species—to resolve fire spread over complex terrain and fuel structures. Uniquely, we couple a physically-based plant mortality model with FIRETEC and examine the resultant hydrologic impact. In this proof of concept demonstration we spatially distribute fuel structure and moisture content based on the eco-hydrological condition to use as input for FIRETEC. The fire behavior simulation then produces localized burn severity and heat injures which are used as input to a spatially-informed plant mortality model. Ultimately we demonstrate the applicability of physically-based models to explore integrated disturbance and eco-hydrologic response to wildfire behavior and specifically map how fire spread and intensity is affect by the antecedent eco-hydrological condition, which then affects the resulting tree mortality patterns.

Are High-Severity Fires Burning at Much Higher Rates Recently than Historically in Dry-Forest Landscapes of the Western USA?

PubMed

Baker, William L

2015-01-01

Dry forests at low elevations in temperate-zone mountains are commonly hypothesized to be at risk of exceptional rates of severe fire from climatic change and land-use effects. Their setting is fire-prone, they have been altered by land-uses, and fire severity may be increasing. However, where fires were excluded, increased fire could also be hypothesized as restorative of historical fire. These competing hypotheses are not well tested, as reference data prior to widespread land-use expansion were insufficient. Moreover, fire-climate projections were lacking for these forests. Here, I used new reference data and records of high-severity fire from 1984-2012 across all dry forests (25.5 million ha) of the western USA to test these hypotheses. I also approximated projected effects of climatic change on high-severity fire in dry forests by applying existing projections. This analysis showed the rate of recent high-severity fire in dry forests is within the range of historical rates, or is too low, overall across dry forests and individually in 42 of 43 analysis regions. Significant upward trends were lacking overall from 1984-2012 for area burned and fraction burned at high severity. Upward trends in area burned at high severity were found in only 4 of 43 analysis regions. Projections for A.D. 2046-2065 showed high-severity fire would generally be still operating at, or have been restored to historical rates, although high projections suggest high-severity fire rotations that are too short could ensue in 6 of 43 regions. Programs to generally reduce fire severity in dry forests are not supported and have significant adverse ecological impacts, including reducing habitat for native species dependent on early-successional burned patches and decreasing landscape heterogeneity that confers resilience to climatic change. Some adverse ecological effects of high-severity fires are concerns. Managers and communities can improve our ability to live with high-severity fire in dry forests.

Comparison of Interglacial fire dynamics in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Daniau, Anne-Laure

2016-04-01

Responses of fire activity to a change in climate are still uncertain and biases exist by integrating this non-linear process into global modeling of the Earth system. Warming and regional drying can force fire activity in two opposite directions: an increase in fire in fuel supported ecosystems or a fire reduction in fuel-limited ecosystems. Therefore, climate variables alone can not be used to estimate the fire risk because vegetation variability is an important determinant of fire dynamics and responds itself to change in climate. Southern Africa (south of 20°S) paleofire history reconstruction obtained from the analysis of microcharcoal preserved in a deep-sea core located off Namibia reveals changes of fire activity on orbital timescales in the precession band. In particular, increase in fire is observed during glacial periods, and reduction of fire during interglacials such as the Eemian and the Holocene. The Holocene was characterized by even lower level of fire activity than Eemian. Those results suggest the alternance of grass-fueled fires during glacials driven by increase in moisture and the development of limited fueled ecosystems during interglacials characterized by dryness. Those results question the simulated increase in the fire risk probability projected for this region under a warming and drying climate obtained by Pechony and Schindell (2010). To explore the validity of the hypotheses we conducted a data-model comparison for both interglacials from 126.000 to 115.000 BP for the Eemian and from 8.000 to 2.000 BP for the Holocene. Data out of a transient, global modeling study with a Vegetation-Fire model of full complexity (JSBACH) is used, driven by a Climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER). Climate data like precipitation and temperature as well as vegetation data like soil moisture, productivity (NPP) on plant functional type level are used to explain trends in fire activity. The comparison of trends in fire activity during the Eemian (126.000 to 120.000 BP) and the Holocene (8.000 to 200 BP) shows an increase in fire data and in simulated fire. Lower level of fire during the Holocene than Eemian can be explained by differences due to unequal trends in vegetation as a result of climate forcing due to orbital changes: while woody type vegetation plays a major role during the Eemian, the Holocene is influenced by grass land. From the modelling perspective changes in the seasonal precipitation drives the vegetation pattern.

Development of Large-Scale Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; T'ien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Legros, Guillaume; Eigenbrod, Christian; Smirnov, Nickolay; Fujita, Osamu; Cowlard, Adam J.;

Thinning and prescribed fire and projected trends in wood product potential, financial return, and fire hazard in Montana.

Treesearch

R. James Barbour; Roger D. Fight; Glenn A. Christensen; Guy L. Pinjuv; Rao V. Nagubadi

2004-01-01

This work was undertaken under a joint fire science project "Assessing the need, costs, and potential benefits of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments to reduce fire hazard." This paper compares the future mix of timber products under two treatment scenarios for the state of Montana. We developed and demonstrated an analytical method that uses readily...

Smoke and fire characteristics for cerrado and deforestation burns in Brazil - BASE-B experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ward, D. E.; Susott, R. A.; Kauffman, J. B.; Babbitt, R. E.; Cummings, D. L.; Dias, B.; Holben, B. N.; Kaufman, Y. J.; Rasmussen, R. A.; Setzer, A. W.

1992-01-01

Five test fires were performed during August and September 1990 in the cerrado (savannalike region) in central Brazil (three fires) and tropical moist forest (two fires) in the eastern Amazon. This paper details the gases released, the ratios of the gases to each other and to particulate matter, fuel loads, and the fraction consumed (combustion factors), and the fire behavior associated with biomass consumption. Models are presented for evaluating emission factors for CH4, CO2, CO, H2, and particles less than 2.5 micron diam (PM2.5) as a function of combustion efficiency. The ratio of carbon released as CO2 (combustion efficiency) for the cerrado fires averaged 0.94 and for the deforestation fires it decreased from 0.88 for the flaming phase to less than 0.80 during the smoldering phase of combustion. For tropical ecosystems, emissions of most products of incomplete combustion are projected to be lower than previous estimates for savanna ecosystems and somewhat higher for fires used for deforestation purposes.

Rocky Mountain Research Station 2008-2012 National Fire Plan Investments

Treesearch

Erika Gallegos

2013-01-01

This report highlights selected accomplishments by the USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station's Wildland Fire and Fuels Research & Development projects in support of the National Fire Plan from 2008 through 2012. These projects are examples of the broad range of knowledge and tools developed by National Fire Plan funding beginning in 2008.

Effects of fire suppression under a changing climate in Pacific Northwest mixed-pine forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanan, E. J.; Tague, C.; Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Kolden, C.; Adam, J. C.

2017-12-01

The frequency of large and severe wildfires has increased over recent decades in many regions across the Western U.S., including the Pacific and Inland Northwest. This increase is likely driven in large part by wildfire suppression, which has promoted fuel accumulation in western landscapes. Recent studies also suggest that anthropogenic climate change intensifies wildfire activity by increasing fuel aridity. However, the contribution of these drivers to observed changes in fire regime is not well quantified at regional scales. Understanding the relative influence of climate and fire suppression is crucial for both projecting the effects of climate change on future fire spread, and for developing site-specific fuel management strategies under a new climate paradigm. To quantify the extent to which fire suppression and climate change have contributed to increases in wildfire activity in the Pacific Northwest, we conduct a modeling experiment using the ecohydrologic model RHESSys and the coupled stochastic fire spread model WMFire. Specifically, we use historical climate inputs from GCMs, combined with fire suppression scenarios to gauge the extent to which these drivers promote the spread of severe wildfires in Johnson Creek, a large (565-km2) mixed-pine dominated subcatchment of the Southfork Salmon River; part of the larger Columbia River Basin. We run 500 model iterations for suppressed, intermediate, and unsuppressed fire management scenarios, both with and without climate change in a factorial design, focusing on fire spread surrounding two extreme fire years in Johnson Creek (1998 and 2007). After deriving fire spread "fingerprints" for each combination of possible drivers, we evaluate the extent to which these fingerprints match observations in the fire record. We expect that climate change plays a role in the spread of large and severe wildfires in Johnson Creek, but the magnitude of this effect is mediated by prior suppression. Preliminary results suggest that management strategies aimed at reducing the extent of contiguous even-aged fuels may help curtail climate-driven increases in wildfire severity in Pacific Northwest watersheds.

Static and dynamic controls on fire activity at moderate spatial and temporal scales in the Alaskan boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barrett, Kirsten; Loboda, Tatiana; McGuire, A. David; Genet, Hélène; Hoy, Elizabeth; Kasischke, Eric

2016-01-01

Wildfire, a dominant disturbance in boreal forests, is highly variable in occurrence and behavior at multiple spatiotemporal scales. New data sets provide more detailed spatial and temporal observations of active fires and the post-burn environment in Alaska. In this study, we employ some of these new data to analyze variations in fire activity by developing three explanatory models to examine the occurrence of (1) seasonal periods of elevated fire activity using the number of MODIS active fire detections data set (MCD14DL) within an 11-day moving window, (2) unburned patches within a burned area using the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire severity product, and (3) short-to-moderate interval (<60 yr) fires using areas of burned area overlap in the Alaska Large Fire Database. Explanatory variables for these three models included dynamic variables that can change over the course of the fire season, such as weather and burn date, as well as static variables that remain constant over a fire season, such as topography, drainage, vegetation cover, and fire history. We found that seasonal periods of high fire activity are associated with both seasonal timing and aggregated weather conditions, as well as the landscape composition of areas that are burning. Important static inputs to the model of seasonal fire activity indicate that when fire weather conditions are suitable, areas that typically resist fire (e.g., deciduous stands) may become more vulnerable to burning and therefore less effective as fire breaks. The occurrence of short-to-moderate interval fires appears to be primarily driven by weather conditions, as these were the only relevant explanatory variables in the model. The unique importance of weather in explaining short-to-moderate interval fires implies that fire return intervals (FRIs) will be sensitive to projected climate changes in the region. Unburned patches occur most often in younger stands, which may be related to a greater deciduous fraction of vegetation as well as lower fuel loads compared with mature stands. The fraction of unburned patches may therefore increase in response to decreasing FRIs and increased deciduousness in the region, or these may decrease if fire weather conditions become more severe.

Design of monocular head-mounted displays for increased indoor firefighting safety and efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Joel; Steingart, Dan; Romero, Russell; Reynolds, Jessica; Mellers, Eric; Redfern, Andrew; Lim, Lloyd; Watts, William; Patton, Colin; Baker, Jessica; Wright, Paul

2005-05-01

Four monocular Head-Mounted Display (HMD) prototypes from the Fire Information and Rescue Equipment (FIRE) project at UC Berkeley are presented. The FIRE project aims to give firefighters a system of information technology tools for safer and more efficient firefighting in large buildings. The paper begins by describing the FIRE project and its use of a custom wireless sensor network (WSN) called SmokeNet for personnel tracking. The project aims to address urban/industrial firefighting procedures in need of improvement. Two "user-needs" studies with the Chicago and Berkeley Fire Departments are briefly presented. The FIRE project"s initial HMD prototype designs are then discussed with regard to feedback from the user-needs studies. These prototypes are evaluated in their potential costs and benefits to firefighters and found to need improvement. Next, some currently available commercial HMDs are reviewed and compared in their cost, performance, and potential for use by firefighters. Feedback from the Berkeley Fire Department user-needs study, in which the initial prototypes were demonstrated, is compiled into a concept selection matrix for the next prototypes. This matrix is used to evaluate a variety of HMDs, including some of the commercial units presented, and to select the best design options. Finally, the current prototypes of the two best design options are presented and discussed.

Simulating the response of natural ecosystems and their fire regimes to climatic variability in Alaska.

Treesearch

D. Bachelet; J. Lenihan; R. Neilson; R. Drapek; T. Kittel

2005-01-01

The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 was used to examine climate, fire, and ecosystems interactions in Alaska under historical (1922-1996) and future (1997-2100) climate conditions. Projections show that by the end of the 21st century, 75%-90% of the area simulated as tundra in 1922 is replaced by boreal and temperate forest. From 1922 to 1996, simulation results...

FireMap: A Web Tool for Dynamic Data-Driven Predictive Wildfire Modeling Powered by the WIFIRE Cyberinfrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, J.; Crawl, D.; Artes, T.; Cowart, C.; de Callafon, R.; DeFanti, T.; Graham, J.; Smarr, L.; Srivas, T.; Altintas, I.

2016-12-01

The NSF-funded WIFIRE project has designed a web-based wildfire modeling simulation and visualization tool called FireMap. The tool executes FARSITE to model fire propagation using dynamic weather and fire data, configuration settings provided by the user, and static topography and fuel datasets already built-in. Using GIS capabilities combined with scalable big data integration and processing, FireMap enables simple execution of the model with options for running ensembles by taking the information uncertainty into account. The results are easily viewable, sharable, repeatable, and can be animated as a time series. From these capabilities, users can model real-time fire behavior, analyze what-if scenarios, and keep a history of model runs over time for sharing with collaborators. Firemap runs FARSITE with national and local sensor networks for real-time weather data ingestion and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather for forecasted weather. The HRRR is a NOAA/NCEP operational weather prediction system comprised of a numerical forecast model and an analysis/assimilation system to initialize the model. It is run with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, has 50 vertical levels, and has a temporal resolution of 15 minutes. The HRRR requires an Environmental Data Exchange (EDEX) server to receive the feed and generate secondary products out of it for the modeling. UCSD's EDEX server, funded by NSF, makes high-resolution weather data available to researchers worldwide and enables visualization of weather systems and weather events lasting months or even years. The high-speed server aggregates weather data from the University Consortium for Atmospheric Research by way of a subscription service from the Consortium called the Internet Data Distribution system. These features are part of WIFIRE's long term goals to build an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. Although Firemap is a research product of WIFIRE, developed in collaboration with a number of fire departments, the tool is operational in pilot form for providing big data-driven predictive fire spread modeling. Most recently, FireMap was used for situational awareness in the July 2016 Sand Fire by LA City and LA County Fire Departments.

On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe.

PubMed

Turco, Marco; von Hardenberg, Jost; AghaKouchak, Amir; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Provenzale, Antonello; Trigo, Ricardo M

2017-03-06

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Simulating the Effects of Fire on Forests in the Russian Far East: Integrating a Fire Danger Model and the FAREAST Forest Growth Model Across a Complex Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherman, N. J.; Loboda, T.; Sun, G.; Shugart, H. H.; Csiszar, I.

2008-12-01

The remaining natural habitat of the critically endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) and Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) is a vast, biologically and topographically diverse area in the Russian Far East (RFE). Although wildland fire is a natural component of ecosystem functioning in the RFE, severe or repeated fires frequently re-set the process of forest succession, which may take centuries to return the affected forests to the pre-fire state and thus significantly alters habitat quality and long-term availability. The frequency of severe fire events has increased over the last 25 years, leading to irreversible modifications of some parts of the species' habitats. Moreover, fire regimes are expected to continue to change toward more frequent and severe events under the influence of climate change. Here we present an approach to developing capabilities for a comprehensive assessment of potential Amur tiger and leopard habitat availability throughout the 21st century by integrating regionally parameterized fire danger and forest growth models. The FAREAST model is an individual, gap-based model that simulates forest growth in a single location and demonstrates temporally explicit forest succession leading to mature forests. Including spatially explicit information on probabilities of fire occurrence at 1 km resolution developed from the regionally specific remotely -sensed data-driven fire danger model improves our ability to provide realistic long-term projections of potential forest composition in the RFE. This work presents the first attempt to merge the FAREAST model with a fire disturbance model, to validate its outputs across a large region, and to compare it to remotely-sensed data products as well as in situ assessments of forest structure. We ran the FAREAST model at 1,000 randomly selected points within forested areas in the RFE. At each point, the model was calibrated for temperature, precipitation, slope, elevation, and fire probability. The output of the model includes biomass estimates for 44 tree species that occur in the RFE, grouped by genus. We compared the model outputs with land cover classifications derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and LIDAR-based estimates of biomass across the entire region, and Russian forest inventory records at selected sites. Overall, we find that the FAREAST estimates of forest biomass and general composition are consistent with the observed distribution of forest types.

Use of FIA plot data in the LANDFIRE project

Treesearch

Chris Toney; Matthew Rollins; Karen Short; Tracey Frescino; Ronald Tymcio; Birgit Peterson

2007-01-01

LANDFIRE is an interagency project that will generate consistent maps and data describing vegetation, fire, and fuel characteristics across the United States within a 5-year timeframe. Modeling and mapping in LANDFIRE depend extensively on a large database of georeferenced field measurements describing vegetation, site characteristics, and fuel. The LANDFIRE Reference...

Fiscal Year 1986 Technical Objective Document (TOD).

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-03-01

abilties superior to other IR and manual turrets. - START DATE: FY 88 END DATE: FY 90" PROJECT TITLE: COMPOSITE METAL FIRES EE 62:06 JON: 2673XXXX...TECHNOLOGY: FIRE ELEMENT: INTERACTION DESCRIPTION (TECHNICAL OBJECTIVE) Evaluate a new series of agents "BORALONS" capable of extinguishing metal fires and...PROJECT TITLE: COMPOSITE METAL FIRES PE: 63723 JON: 2104XXXX

77 FR 18997 - Rim Lakes Forest Restoration Project; Apache-Sitgreavese National Forest, Black Mesa Ranger...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-29

... uncharacteristicly high-severity wild fires, which can lead to loss of entire stands during one fire event. About 67..., fire, and wind. The purpose of the project is to restore forest health, move forests toward an uneven-aged forest structure with all age classes represented, and restore frequent, periodic surface fire as...

Directory of DOT Fire Research, 1979 edition

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-12-01

This document presents the results of a survey of the fire safety projects conducted by the modal administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Ongoing and recently completed modal fire safety projects for the period June 1978 to December...

Palaeodata-informed modelling of large carbon losses from recent burning of boreal forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Ryan; Genet, Helene; McGuire, A. David; Hu, Feng Sheng

2016-01-01

Wildfires play a key role in the boreal forest carbon cycle1, 2, and models suggest that accelerated burning will increase boreal C emissions in the coming century3. However, these predictions may be compromised because brief observational records provide limited constraints to model initial conditions4. We confronted this limitation by using palaeoenvironmental data to drive simulations of long-term C dynamics in the Alaskan boreal forest. Results show that fire was the dominant control on C cycling over the past millennium, with changes in fire frequency accounting for 84% of C stock variability. A recent rise in fire frequency inferred from the palaeorecord5 led to simulated C losses of 1.4 kg C m−2 (12% of ecosystem C stocks) from 1950 to 2006. In stark contrast, a small net C sink of 0.3 kg C m−2 occurred if the past fire regime was assumed to be similar to the modern regime, as is common in models of C dynamics. Although boreal fire regimes are heterogeneous, recent trends6 and future projections7 point to increasing fire activity in response to climate warming throughout the biome. Thus, predictions8 that terrestrial C sinks of northern high latitudes will mitigate rising atmospheric CO2 may be over-optimistic.

Predicting the formation and the dispersion of toxic combustion products from the fires of dangerous substances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nevrlý, V.; Bitala, P.; Danihelka, P.; Dobeš, P.; Dlabka, J.; Hejzlar, T.; Baudišová, B.; Míček, D.; Zelinger, Z.

2012-04-01

Natural events, such as wildfires, lightning or earthquakes represent a frequent trigger of industrial fires involving dangerous substances. Dispersion of smoke plume from such fires and the effects of toxic combustion products are one of the reference scenarios expected in the framework of major accident prevention. Nowadays, tools for impact assessment of these events are rather missing. Detailed knowledge of burning material composition, atmospheric conditions, and other factors are required in order to describe quantitatively the source term of toxic fire products and to evaluate the parameters of smoke plume. Nevertheless, an assessment of toxic emissions from large scale fires involves a high degree of uncertainty, because of the complex character of physical and chemical processes in the harsh environment of uncontrolled flame. Among the others, soot particle formation can be mentioned as still being one of the unresolved problems in combustion chemistry, as well as decomposition pathways of chemical substances. Therefore, simplified approach for estimating the emission factors from outdoor fires of dangerous chemicals, utilizable for major accident prevention and preparedness, was developed and the case study illustrating the application of the proposed method was performed. ALOFT-FT software tool based on large eddy simulation of buoyant fire plumes was employed for predicting the local toxic contamination in the down-wind vicinity of the fire. The database of model input parameters can be effectively modified enabling the simulation of the smoke plume from pool fires or jet fires of arbitrary flammable (or combustible) gas, liquid or solid. This work was supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic via the project LD11012 (in the frame of the COST CM0901 Action) and the Ministry of Environment of the Czech Republic (project no. SPII 1a10 45/70).

Incorporating Resource Protection Constraints in an Analysis of Landscape Fuel-Treatment Effectiveness in the Northern Sierra Nevada, CA, USA.

PubMed

Dow, Christopher B; Collins, Brandon M; Stephens, Scott L

2016-03-01

Finding novel ways to plan and implement landscape-level forest treatments that protect sensitive wildlife and other key ecosystem components, while also reducing the risk of large-scale, high-severity fires, can prove to be difficult. We examined alternative approaches to landscape-scale fuel-treatment design for the same landscape. These approaches included two different treatment scenarios generated from an optimization algorithm that reduces modeled fire spread across the landscape, one with resource-protection constrains and one without the same. We also included a treatment scenario that was the actual fuel-treatment network implemented, as well as a no-treatment scenario. For all the four scenarios, we modeled hazardous fire potential based on conditional burn probabilities, and projected fire emissions. Results demonstrate that in all the three active treatment scenarios, hazardous fire potential, fire area, and emissions were reduced by approximately 50 % relative to the untreated condition. Results depict that incorporation of constraints is more effective at reducing modeled fire outputs, possibly due to the greater aggregation of treatments, creating greater continuity of fuel-treatment blocks across the landscape. The implementation of fuel-treatment networks using different planning techniques that incorporate real-world constraints can reduce the risk of large problematic fires, allow for landscape-level heterogeneity that can provide necessary ecosystem services, create mixed forest stand structures on a landscape, and promote resilience in the uncertain future of climate change.

Supporting the operational use of process based hydrological models and NASA Earth Observations for use in land management and post-fire remediation through a Rapid Response Erosion Database (RRED).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, M. E.; Elliot, W.; Billmire, M.; Robichaud, P. R.; Banach, D. M.

2017-12-01

We have built a Rapid Response Erosion Database (RRED, http://rred.mtri.org/rred/) for the continental United States to allow land managers to access properly formatted spatial model inputs for the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). Spatially-explicit process-based models like WEPP require spatial inputs that include digital elevation models (DEMs), soil, climate and land cover. The online database delivers either a 10m or 30m USGS DEM, land cover derived from the Landfire project, and soil data derived from SSURGO and STATSGO datasets. The spatial layers are projected into UTM coordinates and pre-registered for modeling. WEPP soil parameter files are also created along with linkage files to match both spatial land cover and soils data with the appropriate WEPP parameter files. Our goal is to make process-based models more accessible by preparing spatial inputs ahead of time allowing modelers to focus on addressing scenarios of concern. The database provides comprehensive support for post-fire hydrological modeling by allowing users to upload spatial soil burn severity maps, and within moments returns spatial model inputs. Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. After moderate and high severity wildfires, flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fire, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, creating an urgent need for rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. The database has been used to help assess and plan remediation on over a dozen wildfires in the Western US. Future plans include expanding spatial coverage, improving model input data and supporting additional models. Our goal is to facilitate the use of the best possible datasets and models to support the conservation of soil and water.

Predicting watershed post-fire sediment yield with the InVEST sediment retention model: Accuracy and uncertainties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sankey, Joel B.; McVay, Jason C.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Vaillant, Nicole; Lowe, Scott

2015-01-01

Increased sedimentation following wildland fire can negatively impact water supply and water quality. Understanding how changing fire frequency, extent, and location will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities is of great societal importance in the western USA and throughout the world. In this work we assess the utility of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) Sediment Retention Model to accurately characterize erosion and sedimentation of burned watersheds. InVEST was developed by the Natural Capital Project at Stanford University (Tallis et al., 2014) and is a suite of GIS-based implementations of common process models, engineered for high-end computing to allow the faster simulation of larger landscapes and incorporation into decision-making. The InVEST Sediment Retention Model is based on common soil erosion models (e.g., USLE – Universal Soil Loss Equation) and determines which areas of the landscape contribute the greatest sediment loads to a hydrological network and conversely evaluate the ecosystem service of sediment retention on a watershed basis. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties for InVEST predictions of increased sedimentation after fire, using measured postfire sediment yields available for many watersheds throughout the western USA from an existing, published large database. We show that the model can be parameterized in a relatively simple fashion to predict post-fire sediment yield with accuracy. Our ultimate goal is to use the model to accurately predict variability in post-fire sediment yield at a watershed scale as a function of future wildfire conditions.

Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - utility for the fire brigades.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenzel, S.; Baumann-Stanzer, K.

2009-09-01

Several air dispersion models are available for prediction and simulation of the hazard areas associated with accidental releases of toxic gases. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for effective presentation of results. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios”), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Viennese fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and Synex Ries & Greßlehner GmbH. RETOMOD was funded by the KIRAS safety research program of the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (www.kiras.at). The main tasks of this project were 1. Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input for modeling of the hazard areas (human exposure) during the accidental toxic releases. 2. Comparison of several model packages (based on reference scenarios) in order to estimate the utility for the fire brigades. For the purpose of our study the following models were tested and compared: ALOHA (Areal Location of Hazardous atmosphere, EPA), MEMPLEX (Keudel av-Technik GmbH), Trace (Safer System), Breeze (Trinity Consulting), SAM (Engineering office Lohmeyer). A set of reference scenarios for Chlorine, Ammoniac, Butane and Petrol were proceed, with the models above, in order to predict and estimate the human exposure during the event. Furthermore, the application of the observation-based analysis and forecasting system INCA, developed in the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in case of toxic release was investigated. INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) data are calculated operationally with 1 km horizontal resolution and based on the weather forecast model ALADIN. The meteorological field's analysis with INCA include: Temperature, Humidity, Wind, Precipitation, Cloudiness and Global Radiation. In the frame of the project INCA data were compared with measurements from the meteorological observational network, conducted at traffic-near sites in Vienna. INCA analysis and very short term forecast fields (up to 6 hours) are found to be an advanced possibility to provide on-line meteorological input for the model package used by the fire brigade. Since the input requirements differ from model to model, and the outputs are based on unequal criteria for toxic area and exposure, a high degree of caution in the interpretation of the model results is required - especially in the case of slow wind speeds, stable atmospheric condition, and flow deflection by buildings in the urban area or by complex topography.

Juniper Encroachment and Management in the Intermountain West Relative to Wildfires Utilizing Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J.; Howerton, R.; Ramos, S.; Simpson, Z.; Weber, K.

2016-12-01

One of the most pronounced vegetation changes in recent history is the expansion of junipers (Juniperus spp.) throughout the intermountain west United States. These native species have expanded from their traditional fire-safe habitats into fire-dependent communities as a result of climatic fluctuations, grazing patterns, and wildfire suppression efforts. As junipers expand their range, they begin to dominate plant communities resulting in the recession of shrubs, grasses, and forbs. Land management agencies have a strong commitment to find areas that are vulnerable to juniper encroachment, so that these areas can be studied and more effectively managed. Aiding in this effort, this project used remote sensing to develop two tools that determine fire intensity on a per pixel basis and identify different phases of juniper encroachment, respectively. Landsat 8, representing land cover data was combined with topography information (slope and aspect) in a linear regression model that quantified fire intensity on a per pixel basis, identifying areas that would burn hotter and longer based on fuel type. The overall accuracy of the model was 86% with a kappa coefficient of 0.81. Visual validation using NAIP imagery in comparison with the fuel classification result showed good visual correlation of the fuel model with dense juniper stands. The second output of the project was an image/object based classification tool that uses multispectral imagery and supervised point classification to classify different vegetation types according to the spectral detail of the objects. The goal of the model is to improve phase identification of juniper stands. Initial visual verification with NAIP shows the model to be performing very satisfactorily but is dependent on the spatial resolution of the user fed input imagery. Furnishing land managers with these tools will assist in forecasting areas prone to juniper invasion based upon surrounding seedbanks, as well as, predict the ensuing intensity of fires should ignition occur.

Are High-Severity Fires Burning at Much Higher Rates Recently than Historically in Dry-Forest Landscapes of the Western USA?

PubMed Central

Baker, William L.

2015-01-01

Dry forests at low elevations in temperate-zone mountains are commonly hypothesized to be at risk of exceptional rates of severe fire from climatic change and land-use effects. Their setting is fire-prone, they have been altered by land-uses, and fire severity may be increasing. However, where fires were excluded, increased fire could also be hypothesized as restorative of historical fire. These competing hypotheses are not well tested, as reference data prior to widespread land-use expansion were insufficient. Moreover, fire-climate projections were lacking for these forests. Here, I used new reference data and records of high-severity fire from 1984–2012 across all dry forests (25.5 million ha) of the western USA to test these hypotheses. I also approximated projected effects of climatic change on high-severity fire in dry forests by applying existing projections. This analysis showed the rate of recent high-severity fire in dry forests is within the range of historical rates, or is too low, overall across dry forests and individually in 42 of 43 analysis regions. Significant upward trends were lacking overall from 1984–2012 for area burned and fraction burned at high severity. Upward trends in area burned at high severity were found in only 4 of 43 analysis regions. Projections for A.D. 2046–2065 showed high-severity fire would generally be still operating at, or have been restored to historical rates, although high projections suggest high-severity fire rotations that are too short could ensue in 6 of 43 regions. Programs to generally reduce fire severity in dry forests are not supported and have significant adverse ecological impacts, including reducing habitat for native species dependent on early-successional burned patches and decreasing landscape heterogeneity that confers resilience to climatic change. Some adverse ecological effects of high-severity fires are concerns. Managers and communities can improve our ability to live with high-severity fire in dry forests. PMID:26351850

Integrating Measurement Based New Knowledge on Wildland Fire Emissions and Chemistry into the AIRPACT Air Quality Forecasting for the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nergui, T.; Lee, Y.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B. K.; Yokelson, R. J.; Barsanti, K.

2017-12-01

A number of chamber and field measurements have shown that atmospheric organic aerosols and their precursors produced from wildfires are significantly underestimated in the emission inventories used for air quality models for various applications such as regulatory strategy development, impact assessments of air pollutants, and air quality forecasting for public health. The AIRPACT real-time air quality forecasting system consistently underestimates surface level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in the summer at both urban and rural locations in the Pacific Northwest, primarily result of errors in organic particulate matter. In this work, we implement updated chemical speciation and emission factors based on FLAME-IV (Fourth Fire Lab at Missoula Experiment) and other measurements in the Blue-Sky fire emission model and the SMOKE emission preprocessor; and modified parameters for the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) module in CMAQ chemical transport model of the AIRPACT modeling system. Simulation results from CMAQ version 5.2 which has a better treatment for anthropogenic SOA formation (as a base case) and modified parameterization used for fire emissions and chemistry in the model (fire-soa case) are evaluated against airborne measurements downwind of the Big Windy Complex Fire and the Colockum Tarps Fire, both of which occurred in the Pacific Northwest in summer 2013. Using the observed aerosol chemical composition and mass loadings for organics, nitrate, sulfate, ammonium, and chloride from aircraft measurements during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP), we assess how new knowledge gained from wildfire measurements improve model predictions for SOA and its contribution to the total mass of PM2.5 concentrations.

Vegetation dynamics under fire exclusion and logging in a Rocky Mountain watershed, 1856-1996

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallant, Alisa L.; Hansen, A.J.; Councilman, J.S.; Monte, D.K.; Betz, D.W.

2003-01-01

How have changes in land management practices affected vegetation patterns in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem? This question led us to develop a deterministic, successional, vegetation model to “turn back the clock” on a study area and assess how patterns in vegetation cover type and structure have changed through different periods of management. Our modeling spanned the closing decades of use by Native Americans, subsequent Euro-American settlement, and associated indirect methods of fire suppression, and more recent practices of fire exclusion and timber harvest. Model results were striking, indicating that the primary forest dynamic in the study area is not fragmentation of conifer forest by logging, but the transition from a fire-driven mosaic of grassland, shrubland, broadleaf forest, and mixed forest communities to a conifer-dominated landscape. Projections for conifer-dominated stands showed an increase in areal coverage from 15% of the study area in the mid-1800s to ∼50% by the mid-1990s. During the same period, projections for aspen-dominated stands showed a decline in coverage from 37% to 8%. Substantial acreage previously occupied by a variety of age classes has given way to extensive tracts of mature forest. Only 4% of the study area is currently covered by young stands, all of which are coniferous. While logging has replaced wildfire as a mechanism for cycling younger stands into the landscape, the locations, species constituents, patch sizes, and ecosystem dynamics associated with logging do not mimic those associated with fire. It is also apparent that the nature of these differences varies among biophysical settings, and that land managers might consider a biophysical class strategy for tailoring management goals and restoration efforts.

Artillery Survivability Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

effectiveness of possible guns of the future. Different than this project, this thesis seeks to optimize the survival time of the artillery units and to find...one SME mentioned that the gun they were shot by provides more clues about subsequent shots. If we are taking mortar fire, falling rounds are...just be reloading their guns . If two rounds are necessary, two howitzers with a higher amount of the specified rounds are fired. After rounds have been

Understorey fire frequency and the fate of burned forests in southern Amazonia.

PubMed

Morton, D C; Le Page, Y; DeFries, R; Collatz, G J; Hurtt, G C

2013-06-05

Recent drought events underscore the vulnerability of Amazon forests to understorey fires. The long-term impact of fires on biodiversity and forest carbon stocks depends on the frequency of fire damages and deforestation rates of burned forests. Here, we characterized the spatial and temporal dynamics of understorey fires (1999-2010) and deforestation (2001-2010) in southern Amazonia using new satellite-based estimates of annual fire activity (greater than 50 ha) and deforestation (greater than 10 ha). Understorey forest fires burned more than 85 500 km(2) between 1999 and 2010 (2.8% of all forests). Forests that burned more than once accounted for 16 per cent of all understorey fires. Repeated fire activity was concentrated in Mato Grosso and eastern Pará, whereas single fires were widespread across the arc of deforestation. Routine fire activity in Mato Grosso coincided with annual periods of low night-time relative humidity, suggesting a strong climate control on both single and repeated fires. Understorey fires occurred in regions with active deforestation, yet the interannual variability of fire and deforestation were uncorrelated, and only 2.6 per cent of forests that burned between 1999 and 2008 were deforested for agricultural use by 2010. Evidence from the past decade suggests that future projections of frontier landscapes in Amazonia should separately consider economic drivers to project future deforestation and climate to project fire risk.

Understorey fire frequency and the fate of burned forests in southern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Morton, D. C.; Le Page, Y.; DeFries, R.; Collatz, G. J.; Hurtt, G. C.

2013-01-01

Recent drought events underscore the vulnerability of Amazon forests to understorey fires. The long-term impact of fires on biodiversity and forest carbon stocks depends on the frequency of fire damages and deforestation rates of burned forests. Here, we characterized the spatial and temporal dynamics of understorey fires (1999–2010) and deforestation (2001–2010) in southern Amazonia using new satellite-based estimates of annual fire activity (greater than 50 ha) and deforestation (greater than 10 ha). Understorey forest fires burned more than 85 500 km2 between 1999 and 2010 (2.8% of all forests). Forests that burned more than once accounted for 16 per cent of all understorey fires. Repeated fire activity was concentrated in Mato Grosso and eastern Pará, whereas single fires were widespread across the arc of deforestation. Routine fire activity in Mato Grosso coincided with annual periods of low night-time relative humidity, suggesting a strong climate control on both single and repeated fires. Understorey fires occurred in regions with active deforestation, yet the interannual variability of fire and deforestation were uncorrelated, and only 2.6 per cent of forests that burned between 1999 and 2008 were deforested for agricultural use by 2010. Evidence from the past decade suggests that future projections of frontier landscapes in Amazonia should separately consider economic drivers to project future deforestation and climate to project fire risk. PMID:23610169

Development of Corrections for Biomass Burning Effects in Version 2 of GEWEX/SRB Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinker, Rachel T.; Laszlo, I.; Dicus, Dennis L. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

The objectives of this project were: (1) To incorporate into an existing version of the University of Maryland Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) model, optical parameters of forest fire aerosols, using best available information, as well as optical properties of other aerosols, identified as significant. (2) To run the model on regional scales with the new parametrization and information on forest fire occurrence and plume advection, as available from NASA LARC, and test improvements in inferring surface fluxes against daily values of measured fluxes. (3) Develop strategy how to incorporate the new parametrization on global scale and how to transfer modified model to NASA LARC.

Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference

PubMed Central

Cuevas Rivera, Dario; Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J.

2015-01-01

The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an ‘intelligent coincidence detector’, which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena. PMID:26451888

Recovery Act: Oxy-Combustion Techology Development for Industrial-Scale Boiler Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levasseur, Armand

2014-04-30

Alstom Power Inc. (Alstom), under U.S. DOE/NETL Cooperative Agreement No. DE-NT0005290, is conducting a development program to generate detailed technical information needed for application of oxy-combustion technology. The program is designed to provide the necessary information and understanding for the next step of large-scale commercial demonstration of oxy combustion in tangentially fired boilers and to accelerate the commercialization of this technology. The main project objectives include: • Design and develop an innovative oxyfuel system for existing tangentially-fired boiler units that minimizes overall capital investment and operating costs. • Evaluate performance of oxyfuel tangentially fired boiler systems in pilot scale testsmore » at Alstom’s 15 MWth tangentially fired Boiler Simulation Facility (BSF). • Address technical gaps for the design of oxyfuel commercial utility boilers by focused testing and improvement of engineering and simulation tools. • Develop the design, performance and costs for a demonstration scale oxyfuel boiler and auxiliary systems. • Develop the design and costs for both industrial and utility commercial scale reference oxyfuel boilers and auxiliary systems that are optimized for overall plant performance and cost. • Define key design considerations and develop general guidelines for application of results to utility and different industrial applications. The project was initiated in October 2008 and the scope extended in 2010 under an ARRA award. The project completion date was April 30, 2014. Central to the project is 15 MWth testing in the BSF, which provided in-depth understanding of oxy-combustion under boiler conditions, detailed data for improvement of design tools, and key information for application to commercial scale oxy-fired boiler design. Eight comprehensive 15 MWth oxy-fired test campaigns were performed with different coals, providing detailed data on combustion, emissions, and thermal behavior over a matrix of fuels, oxyprocess variables and boiler design parameters. Significant improvement of CFD modeling tools and validation against 15 MWth experimental data has been completed. Oxy-boiler demonstration and large reference designs have been developed, supported with the information and knowledge gained from the 15 MWth testing. The results from the 15 MWth testing in the BSF and complimentary bench-scale testing are addressed in this volume (Volume II) of the final report. The results of the modeling efforts (Volume III) and the oxy boiler design efforts (Volume IV) are reported in separate volumes.« less

Final Report: Fire Prevention, Detection, and Suppression Project, Exploration Technology Development Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.

2011-01-01

The Fire Prevention, Detection, and Suppression (FPDS) project is a technology development effort within the Exploration Technology Development Program of the Exploration System Missions Directorate (ESMD) that addresses all aspects of fire safety aboard manned exploration systems. The overarching goal for work in the FPDS area is to develop technologies that will ensure crew health and safety on exploration missions by reducing the likelihood of a fire, or, if one does occur, minimizing the risk to the crew, mission, or system. This is accomplished by addressing the areas of (1) fire prevention and material flammability, (2) fire signatures and detection, and (3) fire suppression and response. This report describes the outcomes of this project from the formation of the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) in October 2005 to September 31, 2010 when the Exploration Technology Development Program was replaced by the Enabling Technology Development and Demonstration Program. NASA s fire safety work will continue under this new program and will build upon the accomplishments described herein.

SIMPPLLE, version 2.5 user's guide

Treesearch

Jimmie D. Chew; Kirk Moeller; Christine Stalling

2012-01-01

SIMPPLLE is a spatially-interactive, dynamic landscape modeling system for projecting temporal changes in the spatial distribution of vegetation in response to insects, disease, wildland fire, and other natural and management-caused disturbances. SIMPPLLE is designed to provide a balance between incorporating enough complexity and interactions in modeling ecosystem...

ESA fire_cci product assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heil, Angelika; Yue, Chao; Mouillot, Florent; Storm, Thomas; Chuvieco, Emilio; Ramo Sanchez, Ruben; Kaiser, Johannes W.

2017-04-01

Vegetation fires are a major disturbance in the Earth System. Fires change the biophysical properties and dynamics of ecosystems and alter terrestrial carbon pools. By altering the atmosphere's composition, fire emissions exert a significant climate forcing. To realistically model past and future changes of the Earth System, fire disturbances must be taken into account. Related modelling efforts require consistent global burned area observations covering at least 10 to 20 years. Guided by the specific requirements of a wide range of end users, the ESA fire_cci project has computed a new global burned area dataset. It applies a newly developed spectral change detection algorithm upon the ENVISAT-MERIS archive. The algorithm relies on MODIS active fire information as "seed". It comprises a pixel burned area product (spatial resolution of 333 m) with date detection information and a biweekly grid product at 0.25 degree spatial resolution. We compare fire_cci burned area with other global burned area products (MCD64 Collection 6, MCD45, GFED4, GFED4s and GEOLAND) and a set of active fires data (hotspots from MODIS, TRMM, AATSR and fire radiative power from GFAS). The analysis of patterns of agreement and disagreement between fire_cci and other products provides a better understanding of product characteristics and uncertainties. The intercomparison of the 2005-2011 fire_cci time series shows a close agreement with GFED4 data in terms of global burned area and the general spatial and temporal patterns. Pronounced differences, however, emerge for specific regions or fire events. Burned area mapped by fire_cci tends to be notably higher in regions where small agricultural fires predominate. The improved detection of small agricultural fires by fire_cci can be related to the increased spatial resolution of the MERIS sensor (333 m compared to 500 in MODIS). This is illustrated in detail using the example of the extreme 2006 spring fires in Eastern Europe.

Simulated Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance of Western US Forests Under Contemporary Climate and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Law, B. E.; Jones, M. O.

2015-12-01

Previous projections of the contemporary forest carbon balance in the western US showed uncertainties associated with impacts of climate extremes and a coarse spatio-temporal resolution implemented over heterogeneous mountain regions. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM) 4.5 to produce 4km resolution forest carbon changes with drought, fire and management in the western US. We parameterized the model with species data using local plant trait observations for 30 species. To quantify uncertainty, we evaluated the model with data from flux sites, inventories and ancillary data in the region. Simulated GPP was lower than the measurements at our AmeriFlux sites by 17-22%. Simulated burned area was generally higher than Landsat observations, suggesting the model overestimates fire emissions with the new fire model. Landsat MTBS data show high severity fire represents only a small portion of the total burnt area (12-14%), and no increasing trend from 1984 to 2011. Moderate severity fire increased ~0.23%/year due to fires in the Sierra Nevada (Law & Waring 2014). Oregon, California, and Washington were a net carbon sink, and net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) declined in California over the past 15 years, partly due to drought impacts. Fire emissions were a small portion of the regional carbon budget compared with the effect of harvest removals. Fossil fuel emissions in CA are more than 3x that of OR and WA combined, but are lower per capita. We also identified forest regions that are most vulnerable to climate-driven transformations and to evaluate the effects of management strategies on forest NECB. Differences in forest NECB among states are strongly influenced by the extent of drought (drier longer in the SW) and management intensity (higher in the PNW).

Large-Scale Spacecraft Fire Safety Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urban, David; Ruff, Gary A.; Ferkul, Paul V.; Olson, Sandra; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; T'ien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Cowlard, Adam J.; Rouvreau, Sebastien; Minster, Olivier;

A high-resolution modelling approach on spatial wildfire distribution in the Tyrolean Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malowerschnig, Bodo; Sass, Oliver

2013-04-01

Global warming will cause increasing danger of wildfires in Austria, which can have long-lasting consequences on woodland ecosystems. The protective effect of forest can be severely diminished, leading to natural hazards like avalanches and rockfall. However, data on wildfire frequency and distribution have been sparse and incomplete for Austria. Long-lasting postfire degradation under adverse preconditions (steep slopes, limestone) was a common phenomenon in parts of the Tyrolean Alps several decades ago and should become relevant again under a changing fire frequency. The FIRIA project compiles historical wildfire data, information on fuel loads, fire weather indices (FWI) and vegetation recovery patterns. The governing climatic, topographic and socio-economic factors of forest fire distribution were assessed to trigger a distribution model of currently fire-prone areas in Tyrol. By collecting data from different sources like old newspapers archives and fire-fighter databases, we were able to build up a fire database of wildfire occurrences containing more than 1400 forest fires since the 15th century in Tyrol. For the period from 1993 to 2011, the database is widely complete and covers 482 fires. Using a non-parametrical statistical method it was possible to select the best suited fire weather index (FWI) for the prediction. The testing of 19 FWI's shows that it is necessary to use two discriminative indices to differentiate between summer and winter season. Together with compiled topographic, socio-economic, infrastructure and forest maps, the dataset was the base for a multifactorial analysis, performed by comparing the maximum entropy approach (Maxent) with an ensemble classifier (Random Forests). Both approaches have their background in the spatial habitat distribution and are easy to adapt to the requirements of a wildfire ignition model. The aim of this modelling approach was to determine areas which are particularly prone to wildfire. Due to the pronounced relief curvature we based our model on 100 x 100 m cells to identify individual slopes and their topography. The first provisional result is a map of fire probability under current climate conditions (fire hot-spots). Our modelling approach indicates the fire weather index as the main driver, which is followed closely by socioeconomic (population density) and infrastructure factors (roads density, aerial railways, building density). The leverage of the forest community or its management is rather low; the same applies to topographic influences like aspect or sea level. The derived fire hot-spots are either placed close to the valley ground or around touristic infrastructure, with an overall preference for inner alpine areas and south-facing slopes. In the next step, the impact of climate change on the distribution and frequency of fires will be assessed by calculating a climate change model adapted to the 1x1km INCA dataset and based on different regional climate change models. Finally, a selection of fire-hot-spots from the previous modelling steps will be used for enhanced 3D-modelling approaches of natural hazards after wildfire-driven deforestation.

Preliminary analysis of University of North Dakota aircraft data from the FIRE Cirrus IFO-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poellot, Michael R.

1995-01-01

The stated goals of the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) are 'to promote the development of improved cloud and radiation parameterization for use in climate models, and to provide for assessment and improvement of ISCCP projects'. FIRE Phase 2 has focused on the formation, maintenance and dissipation of cirrus and marine stratocumulus cloud systems. These objectives have been approached through a combination of modeling, extended-time observations and intensive field observation (IFO) periods. The work under this grant was associated with the FIRE Cirrus IFO 2. This field measurement program was conducted to obtain observations of cirrus cloud systems on a range of scales from the synoptic to the microscale, utilizing simultaneous measurements from a variety of ground-based, satellite and airborne platforms. By combining these remote and in situ measurements a more complete picture of cirrus systems can be obtained. The role of the University of North Dakota in Phase 2 was three-fold: to collect in situ microphysical data during the Cirrus IFO 2; to process and archive these data; and to collaborate in analyses of IFO data. This report will summarize the activities and findings of the work performed under this grant; detailed description of the data sets available and of the analyses are contained in the Semi-annual Status Reports submitted to NASA.

An assessment of the risk arising from electrical effects associated with the release of carbon fibers from general aviation aircraft fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfield, D.; Fiksel, J.

1980-01-01

A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses through 1993 due to potential electric effects of carbon fibers released from United States general aviation aircraft in the aftermath of a fire. Of the expected 354 annual general aviation aircraft accidents with fire projected for 1993, approximately 88 could involve carbon fibers. The average annual loss was estimated to be about $250 (1977 dollars) and the likelihood of exceeding $107,000 (1977 dollars) in annual loss in any one year was estimated to be at most one in ten thousand.

Accomplishing and applying National Fire Plan research and development from 2001-2005

Treesearch

Baldwin V. Jr. Clark

2007-01-01

This report highlights selected accomplishments achieved by USDA Forest Service National Fire Plan Research and Development projects from 2001 through 2006. The projects highlighted here are examples of the broad range of knowledge and tools developed by the National Fire Plan Research and Development, beginning in 2001.

FIRE I - Marine Stratocumulus Data Sets

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2017-12-21

FIRE I - Marine Stratocumulus Data Sets First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) I - Marine Stratocumulus was conducted off the southwestern coast of California. ... FIRE Project Guide FIRE I - Marine Stratocumulus Home Page (tar file) SCAR-B Block:  ...

Lafayette Adult Reading Academy (LARA) and St. Elizabeth Hospital Employee Literacy Program. Final Performance Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lafayette School Corp., IN.

A two-pronged project model aimed to reduce the volume and increase the usefulness of health care materials and improve the literacy, verbal communication, and problem-solving skills of hospital employees. Regular meetings with hospital staff led project personnel to begin training with the cleaning staff in the areas of fire safety, back care,…

Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire-climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600-2015 CE.

PubMed

Taylor, Alan H; Trouet, Valerie; Skinner, Carl N; Stephens, Scott

2016-11-29

Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire-climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600-2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring-based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation-following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)-reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire-climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire-climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California.

History of Fire Events in the U.S. Commercial Nuclear Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bijan Najafi; Joglar-Biloch, Francisco; Kassawara, Robert P.

2002-07-01

Over the past decade, interest in performance-based fire protection has increased within the nuclear industry. In support of this growing interest, in 1997 the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed a long-range plan to develop/improve data and tools needed to support Risk-Informed/Performance-Based fire protection. This plan calls for continued improvement in collection and use of information obtained from fire events at nuclear plants. The data collection process has the objectives of improving the insights gained from such data and reducing the uncertainty in fire risk and fire modeling methods in order to make them a more reliable basis for performancemore » based fire protection programs. In keeping with these objectives, EPRI continues to collect, review and analyze fire events in support of the nuclear industry. EPRI collects these records in cooperation with the Nuclear Electric Insurance Limited (NEIL), by compiling public fire event reports and by direct solicitation of U.S. nuclear facilities. EPRI fire data collection project is based on the principle that the understanding of history is one of the cornerstones of improving fire protection technology and practice. Therefore, the goal has been to develop and maintain a comprehensive database of fire events with flexibility to support various aspects of fire protection engineering. With more than 1850 fire records over a period of three decades and 2400 reactor years, this is the most comprehensive database of nuclear power industry fire events in existence today. In general, the frequency of fires in the U.S. commercial nuclear industry remains constant. In few cases, e.g., transient fires and fires in BWR offgas/recombiner systems, where either increasing or decreasing trends are observed, these trends tend to slow after 1980. The key issues in improving quality of the data remain to be consistency of the recording and reporting of fire events and difficulties in collection of records. EPRI has made significant progress towards improving the quality of the fire events data through use of multiple collection methods as well as its review and verification. To date EPRI has used this data to develop a generic fire ignition frequency model for U.S. nuclear power industry (Ref. 1, 4 and 5) as well as to support other models in support of EPRI Fire Risk Methods such as a cable fire manual suppression model. EPRI will continue its effort to collect and analyze operating data to support risk informed/performance based fire safety engineering, including collection and analysis of impairment data for fire protection systems and features. This paper provides details on the collection and application of fire events to risk informed/performance based fire protection. The paper also provides valuable insights into improving both collection and use of fire events data. (authors)« less

FIRE I - Extended Time Observations Data Sets

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2017-12-21

FIRE I - Extended Time Observations Data Sets First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) I - Extended Time Observations were conducted in Utah. Relevant ... FIRE Project Guide FIRE I - Extended Time Observations Home Page (tar file) SCAR-B Block:  ...

75 FR 28001 - Ken Willis; Notice of Authorization for Continued Project Operation

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-19

..., licensee for the Fire Mountain Lodge Hydroelectric Project, filed an Application for a New License pursuant to the Federal Power Act (FPA) and the Commission's regulations thereunder. The Fire Mountain Lodge..., notice is hereby given that Ken Willis is authorized to continue operation of the Fire Mountain Lodge...

78 FR 2947 - Manti-La Sal National Forest, Utah; Maverick Point Forest Health Project

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-15

... class structure via use of timber harvesting and prescribed fire. Project activities also seek to.... Over the last 20 years drought conditions have increased; fire size, severity, and total acres burned... fire regimes have been significantly altered from their historical range. The risk of losing key...

On the relative role of fire and rainfall in determining vegetation patterns in tropical savannas: a simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, Allan; Fisher, Rosie

2010-05-01

Tropical savannas cover 18% of the world's land surface and are amongst the most productive terrestrial systems in the world. They comprise 15% of the total terrestrial carbon stock, with an estimated mean net primary productivity (NPP) of 7.2 tCha-1yr-1 or two thirds of NPP in tropical forests. Tropical savannas are the most frequently burnt biome, with fire return intervals in highly productive areas being typically 1-2 years. Fires shape vegetation species composition, tree to grass ratios and nutrient redistribution, as well as the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of trace gases, momentum and radiative energy. Tropical savannas are a major source of emissions, contributing 38 % of total annual CO2 from biomass burning, 30% CO, 19 % CH4 and 59 % NOx. Climatically, they occur in regions subject to a strongly seasonal ‘wet-dry' regime, usually under monsoonal control from the movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone. In general, rainfall during the prior wet season(s) determines the amount of grass fuel available for burning while the length of the dry season influences fuel moisture content. Rainfall in tropical savannas exhibits high inter-annual variability, and under future climate change, is projected to change significantly in much of Africa, South America and northern Australia. Process-based simulation models of fire-vegetation dynamics and feedbacks are critical for determining the impacts of wildfires under projected future climate change on i) ecosystem structure and function, and ii) emissions of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. A new mechanistic global fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) has been designed to overcome many of the limitations in existing fire models set within Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). SPITFIRE has been applied in coupled mode globally and southern Africa, both as part of the LPJ DGVM. It has also been driven with MODIS burnt area data applied to sub-Saharan Africa, while coupled to the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model. Recently, SPIFTIRE has been coupled to the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, which simulates global vegetation dynamics as part of the new land surface scheme JULES (Joint UK Environment Simulator) within the QUEST Earth System Model (http://www.quest-esm.ac.uk/). This study forms part of on-going work to further improve and test the ability of JULES to accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle and land-atmosphere exchanges under different climates. Using the JULES (ED-SPITFIRE) model driven by observed climate (1901-2002), and focusing on large-scale rainfall gradients in the tropical savannas of west Africa, the Northern Territory (Australia) and central-southern Brazil, this study assesses: i) simulated versus observed vegetation dynamics and distributions, and ii) the relative importance of fire versus rainfall in determining vegetation patterns. A sensitivity analysis approach was used.

Climate change impacts on forest fires: the stakeholders' perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, C.; Roussos, A.; Karali, A.; Hatzaki, M.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Chatzinikos, E.; Fyllas, N.; Georgiades, N.; Karetsos, G.; Maheras, G.; Nikolaou, I.; Proutsos, N.; Sbarounis, T.; Tsaggari, K.; Tzamtzis, I.; Goodess, C.

2012-04-01

In this work, we present a synthesis of the presentations and discussions which arose during a workshop on 'Impacts of climate change on forest fires' held in September 2011 at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece in the framework of EU project CLIMRUN. At first, a general presentation about climate change and extremes in the Greek territory provided the necessary background to the audience and highlighted the need for data and information exchange between scientists and stakeholders through climate services within CLIMRUN. Discussions and presentations that followed linked climate with forest science through the use of a meteorological index for fire risk and future projections of fire danger using regional climate models. The current situation on Greek forests was also presented, as well as future steps that should be taken to ameliorate the situation under a climate change world. A time series analysis of changes in forest fires using available historical data on forest ecosystems in Greece was given in this session. This led to the topic of forest fire risk assessment and fire prevention, stating all actions towards sustainable management of forests and effective mechanisms to control fires under climate change. Options for a smooth adaptation of forests to climate change were discussed together with the lessons learned on practical level on prevention, repression and rehabilitation of forest fires. In between there were useful interventions on sustainable hunting and biodiversity protection and on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems dynamics. The importance of developing an educational program for primary/secondary school students on forest fire management was also highlighted. The perspective of forest stakeholders on climate change and how this change can affect their current or future activities was addressed through a questionnaire they were asked to complete. Results showed that the majority of the participants consider climate variability to be important or very important and to influence their activities. Extreme climate events, desertification and drought were regarded as the most important environmental problems along with loss of biodiversity. Most of the participants answered that they use historical data for research, and would welcome climate data and services targeted to their sector if offered. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIMRUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010- 265192.

Modeling Pacific Northwest carbon and water cycling using CARAIB Dynamic Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, M.; Kim, J. B.; Still, C. J.; Francois, L. M.; Jiang, Y.

2015-12-01

While uncertainties remain regarding projected temperature and precipitation changes, climate warming is already affecting ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Decrease in ecosystem productivity as well as increase in mortality of some plant species induced by drought and disturbance have been reported. Here, we applied the process-based dynamic vegetation model CARAIB to PNW to simulate the response of water and carbon cycling to current and future climate change projections. The vegetation model has already been successfully applied to Europe to simulate plant physiological response to climate change. We calibrated CARAIB to PNW using global Plant Functional Types. For calibration, the model is driven with the gridded surface meteorological dataset UIdaho MACA METDATA with 1/24-degree (~4-km) resolution at a daily time step for the period 1979-2014. The model ability to reproduce the current spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks and fluxes was evaluated using a variety of available datasets, including eddy covariance and satellite observations. We focused particularly on past severe drought and fire episodes. Then, we simulated future conditions using the UIdaho MACAv2-METDATA dataset, which includes downscaled CMIP5 projections from 28 GCMs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We evaluated the future ecosystem carbon balance resulting from changes in drought frequency as well as in fire risk. We also simulated future productivity and drought-induced mortality of several key PNW tree species.

Simulating Forest Carbon Dynamics in Response to Large-scale Fuel Reduction Treatments Under Projected Climate-fire Interactions in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, S.; Hurteau, M. D.

2016-12-01

The interaction of warmer, drier climate and increasing large wildfires, coupled with increasing fire severity resulting from fire-exclusion are anticipated to undermine forest carbon (C) stock stability and C sink strength in the Sierra Nevada forests. Treatments, including thinning and prescribed burning, to reduce biomass and restore forest structure have proven effective at reducing fire severity and lessening C loss when treated stands are burned by wildfire. However, the current pace and scale of treatment implementation is limited, especially given recent increases in area burned by wildfire. In this study, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the role of implementation timing of large-scale fuel reduction treatments in influencing forest C stock and fluxes of Sierra Nevada forests with projected climate and larger wildfires. We ran 90-year simulations using climate and wildfire projections from three general circulation models driven by the A2 emission scenario. We simulated two different treatment implementation scenarios: a `distributed' (treatments implemented throughout the simulation) and an `accelerated' (treatments implemented during the first half century) scenario. We found that across the study area, accelerated implementation had 0.6-10.4 Mg ha-1 higher late-century aboveground biomass (AGB) and 1.0-2.2 g C m-2 yr-1 higher mean C sink strength than the distributed scenario, depending on specific climate-wildfire projections. Cumulative wildfire emissions over the simulation period were 0.7-3.9 Mg C ha-1 higher for distributed implementation relative to accelerated implementation. However, simulations with both implementation practices have considerably higher AGB and C sink strength as well as lower wildfire emission than simulations in the absence of fuel reduction treatments. The results demonstrate the potential for implementing large-scale fuel reduction treatments to enhance forest C stock stability and C sink strength under projected climate-wildfire interactions. Given climate and wildfire would become more stressful since the mid-century, a forward management action would grant us more C benefits.

Demonstration of Spacecraft Fire Safety Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David L.

2012-01-01

During the Constellation Program, the development of spacecraft fire safety technologies were focused on the immediate questions related to the atmosphere of the habitable volume and implementation of fire detection, suppression, and postfire clean-up systems into the vehicle architectures. One of the difficulties encountered during the trade studies for these systems was the frequent lack of data regarding the performance of a technology, such as a water mist fire suppression system or an optically-based combustion product monitor. Even though a spacecraft fire safety technology development project was being funded, there was insufficient time and funding to address all the issues as they were identified. At the conclusion of the Constellation Program, these knowledge gaps formed the basis for a project proposed to the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Program. This project, subsequently funded by the AES Program and in operation since October 2011, has as its cornerstone the development of an experiment to be conducted on an ISS resupply vehicle, such as the European Space Agency (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) or Orbital Science s Cygnus vehicle after it leaves the ISS and before it enters the atmosphere. The technology development efforts being conducted in this project include continued quantification of low- and partial-gravity maximum oxygen concentrations of spacecraft-relevant materials, development and verification of sensors for fire detection and post-fire monitoring, development of standards for sizing and selecting spacecraft fire suppression systems, and demonstration of post-fire cleanup strategies. The major technology development efforts are identified in this paper but its primary purpose is to describe the spacecraft fire safety demonstration being planned for the reentry vehicle.

Determinants of National Fire Plan Fuels Treatment Expenditures: A Revealed Preference Analysis for Northern New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Curt; Grimsrud, Kristine; Berrens, Robert P.

2009-10-01

The accumulation of fire fuels in forests throughout the world contributes significantly to the severity of wildfires. To combat the threat of wildfire, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), US federal land management agencies have implemented a number of forest restoration and wildfire risk reduction programs. In the spirit of revealed preference analyses, the objective of this study is to investigate the pattern and determinants of National Fire Plan (NFP) expenditures for fuel reduction treatments in northern New Mexico (USA). Estimation results from a set of Generalized Estimating Equations models are mixed with respect to risk reduction hypotheses, and also raise issues regarding how risk reduction should be defined for a region characterized by both pockets of urban sprawl into the WUI and large areas of chronic rural poverty. Program preferences for project funding under the federal Collaborative Forest Restoration Program in New Mexico are shown to be distinctly different (e.g., exhibiting greater concern for social equity) than for other NFP-funded projects.

Video time encoding machines.

PubMed

Lazar, Aurel A; Pnevmatikakis, Eftychios A

2011-03-01

We investigate architectures for time encoding and time decoding of visual stimuli such as natural and synthetic video streams (movies, animation). The architecture for time encoding is akin to models of the early visual system. It consists of a bank of filters in cascade with single-input multi-output neural circuits. Neuron firing is based on either a threshold-and-fire or an integrate-and-fire spiking mechanism with feedback. We show that analog information is represented by the neural circuits as projections on a set of band-limited functions determined by the spike sequence. Under Nyquist-type and frame conditions, the encoded signal can be recovered from these projections with arbitrary precision. For the video time encoding machine architecture, we demonstrate that band-limited video streams of finite energy can be faithfully recovered from the spike trains and provide a stable algorithm for perfect recovery. The key condition for recovery calls for the number of neurons in the population to be above a threshold value.

Video Time Encoding Machines

PubMed Central

Lazar, Aurel A.; Pnevmatikakis, Eftychios A.

2013-01-01

We investigate architectures for time encoding and time decoding of visual stimuli such as natural and synthetic video streams (movies, animation). The architecture for time encoding is akin to models of the early visual system. It consists of a bank of filters in cascade with single-input multi-output neural circuits. Neuron firing is based on either a threshold-and-fire or an integrate-and-fire spiking mechanism with feedback. We show that analog information is represented by the neural circuits as projections on a set of band-limited functions determined by the spike sequence. Under Nyquist-type and frame conditions, the encoded signal can be recovered from these projections with arbitrary precision. For the video time encoding machine architecture, we demonstrate that band-limited video streams of finite energy can be faithfully recovered from the spike trains and provide a stable algorithm for perfect recovery. The key condition for recovery calls for the number of neurons in the population to be above a threshold value. PMID:21296708

A Fire Severity Mapping System (FSMS) for real-time management applications and long term planning: Developing a map of the landscape potential for severe fire in the western United States

Treesearch

Gregory K. Dillon; Zachary A. Holden; Penny Morgan; Bob Keane

2009-01-01

The Fire Severity Mapping System project is geared toward providing fire managers across the western United States with critical information for dealing with and planning for the ecological effects of wildfire at multiple levels of thematic, spatial, and temporal detail. For this project, we are developing a comprehensive, west-wide map of the landscape potential for...

Assessment of Fire Occurrence and Future Fire Potential in Arctic Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H. F.; Jenkins, L. K.; Loboda, T. V.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Whitley, M. A.

2014-12-01

An analysis of the occurrence of fire in Alaskan tundra was completed using the relatively complete historical record of fire for the region from 1950 to 2013. Spatial fire data for Alaskan tundra regions were obtained from the Alaska Large Fire Database for the region defined from vegetation and ecoregion maps. A detailed presentation of fire records available for assessing the fire regime of the tundra regions of Alaska as well as results evaluating fire size, seasonality, and general geographic and temporal trends is included. Assessment of future fire potential was determined for three future climate scenarios at four locations across the Alaskan tundra using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) weather variables were used for historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) time periods. The database includes 908 fire points and 463 fire polygons within the 482,931 km2 of Alaskan tundra. Based on the polygon database 25,656 km2 (6,340,000 acres) has burned across the six tundra ecoregions since 1950. Approximately 87% of tundra fires start in June and July across all ecoregions. Combining information from the polygon and points data records, the estimated average fire size for fire in the Alaskan Arctic region is 28.1 km2 (7,070 acres), which is much smaller than in the adjacent boreal forest region, averaging 203 km2 for high fire years. The largest fire in the database is the Imuruk Basin Fire which burned 1,680 km2 in 1954 in the Seward Peninsula region (Table 1). Assessment of future fire potential shows that, in comparison with the historical fire record, fire occurrence in Alaskan tundra is expected to increase under all three climate scenarios. Occurrences of high fire weather danger (>10 FWI) are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude in all regions modeled. The changes in fire weather conditions are expected to vary from one region to another in seasonal occurrence as well as severity and frequency of high fire weather danger. While the Alaska Large Fire Database represents the best data available for the Alaskan Arctic, and is superior to many other regions around the world, particularly Arctic regions, these fire records need to be used with some caution due to the mixed origin and minimal validation of the data; this is reviewed in the presentation.

Star Clusters within FIRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, Adrianna; Moreno, Jorge; Naiman, Jill; Ramirez-Ruiz, Enrico; Hopkins, Philip F.

2017-01-01

In this work, we analyze the environments surrounding star clusters of simulated merging galaxies. Our framework employs Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) model (Hopkins et al., 2014). The FIRE project is a high resolution cosmological simulation that resolves star forming regions and incorporates stellar feedback in a physically realistic way. The project focuses on analyzing the properties of the star clusters formed in merging galaxies. The locations of these star clusters are identified with astrodendro.py, a publicly available dendrogram algorithm. Once star cluster properties are extracted, they will be used to create a sub-grid (smaller than the resolution scale of FIRE) of gas confinement in these clusters. Then, we can examine how the star clusters interact with these available gas reservoirs (either by accreting this mass or blowing it out via feedback), which will determine many properties of the cluster (star formation history, compact object accretion, etc). These simulations will further our understanding of star formation within stellar clusters during galaxy evolution. In the future, we aim to enhance sub-grid prescriptions for feedback specific to processes within star clusters; such as, interaction with stellar winds and gas accretion onto black holes and neutron stars.

Climate, wildfire, and erosion ensemble foretells more sediment in western USA watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sankey, Joel B.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Hawbaker, Todd; McVay, Jason L.; Miller, Mary Ellen; Mueller, Erich R.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Lowe, Scott E.; Sankey, Temuulen T.

2017-01-01

The area burned annually by wildfires is expected to increase worldwide due to climate change. Burned areas increase soil erosion rates within watersheds, which can increase sedimentation in downstream rivers and reservoirs. However, which watersheds will be impacted by future wildfires is largely unknown. Using an ensemble of climate, fire, and erosion models, we show that post-fire sedimentation is projected to increase for nearly nine-tenths of watersheds by > 10% and for more than one-third of watersheds by > 100% by the 2041 to 2050 decade in the western USA. The projected increases are statistically significant for more than eight-tenths of the watersheds. In the western USA, many human communities rely on water from rivers and reservoirs that originates in watersheds where sedimentation is projected to increase. Increased sedimentation could negatively impact water supply and quality for some communities, in addition to affecting stream channel stability and aquatic ecosystems.

Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.; Billmire, Michael; Elliot, William J.; Robichaud, Pete R.

2016-04-01

Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. Flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies after moderate and high severity wildfires. The problem is that mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fires, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, so there is an urgent need for a rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. Past post-fire modeling efforts have usually relied on lumped, conceptual models because of the lack of readily available, spatially-explicit data layers on the key controls of topography, vegetation type, climate, and soil characteristics. The purpose of this project is to develop a set of spatially-explicit data layers for use in process-based models such as WEPP, and to make these data layers freely available. The resulting interactive online modeling database (http://geodjango.mtri.org/geowepp/) is now operational and publically available for 17 western states in the USA. After a fire, users only need to upload a soil burn severity map, and this is combined with the pre-existing data layers to generate the model inputs needed for spatially explicit models such as GeoWEPP (Renschler, 2003). The development of this online database has allowed us to predict post-fire erosion and various remediation scenarios in just 1-7 days for six fires ranging in size from 4-540 km2. These initial successes have stimulated efforts to further improve the spatial extent and amount of data, and add functionality to support the USGS debris flow model, batch processing for Disturbed WEPP (Elliot et al., 2004) and ERMiT (Robichaud et al., 2007), and to support erosion modeling for other land uses, such as agriculture or mining. The design and techniques used to create the database and the modeling interface are readily repeatable for any area or country that has the necessary topography, climate, soil, and land cover datasets.

Political and technical issues of coal fire extinction in the Kyoto framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, U.; Chen-Brauchler, D.; Rüter, H.; Fischer, C.; Bing, K.

2009-04-01

It is a highly desirable effort to extinguish as much coal fires as possible in short time to prevent large losses of energy resources and to minimise CO2 and other exhaust gas releases from such sources. Unfortunately, extinguishing coal fires needs massive financial investments, skilled man power, suited technology and a long time. Even mid to small scale coal fires need several months of extinguishing measures and of monitoring time after extinction resulting in expenditures of a minimum of several hundred thousand Euros. Large companies might be willing to spend money for coal fire extinction measures but smaller holdings or regional governments might not have the monetary resources for it. Since there is no law in China that demands coal fire extinction, measures under the Kyoto framework may be applied to sell CO2 certificates for prevented emissions from extinguished coal fires and thus used as a financial stimulus for coal fire extinction activities. The set-up for methodologies and project designs is especially complex for coal fire extinction measures and thus for necessary exploration, evaluation and monitoring using geophysical and remote sensing methods. A brief overview of most important formal and technical aspects is given to outline the conditions for a potentially successful CDM application on coal fires based on geophysical observations and numerical modelling.

A project for monitoring trends in burn severity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Schwind, Brian; Brewer, Ken; Zhu, Zhu-Liang; Quayle, Brad; Howard, Stephen M.

2007-01-01

Jeff Eidenshink, Brian Schwind, Ken Brewer, Zhi-Liang Zhu, Brad Quayle, and Elected officials and leaders of environmental agencies need information about the effects of large wildfires in order to set policy and make management decisions. Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), which implements and coordinates the National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management Policies (National Fire Plan 2004), adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA). One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States. To that end, WFLC has sponsored a six-year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USDA-FS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires. Using Landsat data and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) and USDA-FS Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires since 1984 greater than 202 ha (500ac) in the east, and 404 ha (1,000 ac) in the west. The number of historical fires from this period combined with current fires occurring during the course of the project will exceed 9,000. The MTBS project will generate burn severity data, maps, and reports, which will be available for use at local, state, and national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land management decisions. Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor the recovery and health of fire-affected landscapes over time. Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range of current and future resource threats. The annual report of 2004 fires has been completed. All data and results will be distributed to the public on a Web site. A Project for Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity

Predicting Fire Season Severity in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Paul Werth

2006-01-01

Projections of fire season severity that integrate historical weather and fire information can be used by fire managers when making decisions about allocating and prioritizing firefighting resources. They enable fire managers to anticipate fire activity and pre-position resources to maximize public and firefighter safety, reduce environmental impacts, and lower...

Ural-Tweed Bighorn Sheep Wildlife Mitigation Project, 1984-1990 Final Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Young, Lewis R.; Yde, Chris A.

The results of habitat improvement project activities accomplished under contract No.84-38 for bighorn sheep mitigation along Koocanusa Reservoir from September 1, 1984, through June 30, 1990, are reported here. Habitat treatments were applied to ten areas and covered 1100 acres. Treatments used were prescribed fire, slashing combined with prescribed fire, and fertilization. Several variations in season or intensity were used within the slashing and prescribed fire treatments. This project was coordinated with and complemented concurrent Kootenai National Forest habitat improvement activities.

Quantifying Wildfire Emissions and associated Aerosol Species using Assimilation of Satellite Carbon Monoxide Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, David; Barre, Jerome; Worden, Helen; Gaubert, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Intense and costly wildfires tend are predicted to increase in frequency under a warming climate. For example, the recent August 2015 Washington State fires were the largest in the state's history. Also in September and October 2015 very intense fires over Indonesia produced some of the highest concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO) ever seen from satellite. Such larges fires impact not only the local environment but also affect air quality far downwind through the long-range transport of pollutants. Global to continental scale coverage showing the evolution of CO resulting from fire emission is available from satellite observations. Carbon monoxide is the only atmospheric trace gas for which satellite multispectral retrievals have demonstrated reliable independent profile information close to the surface and also higher in the free troposphere. The unique CO profile product from Terra/MOPITT clearly distinguishes near-surface CO from the free troposphere CO. Also previous studies have suggested strong correlations between primary emissions of fire organic and black carbon aerosols and CO. We will present results from the Ensemble Adjustement Kalman Filter (DART) system that has been developed to assimilate MOPITT CO in the global-scale chemistry-climate model CAM-Chem. The ensemble technique allows inference on various fire model state variables such as CO emissions, and also aerosol species resulting from fires such as organic and black carbon. The benefit of MOPITT CO profile assimilation for estimating the CO emissions from the Washington and Indonesian fire cases will be discussed, along with the ability of the ensemble approach to infer information on the black and organic carbon aerosol distribution. This study builds on capability to quantitatively integrate satellite observations and models developed in recent years through projects funded by the NASA ACMAP Program.

Design and objectives of FTM-West model

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Henry Spelter

2006-01-01

The FTM-West (“fuel treatment market” model for U.S. West) is a dynamic partial market equilibrium model of regional softwood timber and wood product markets, designed to project future market impacts of expanded fuel treatment programs that remove trees to reduce fire hazard on forestlands in the U.S. West. The model solves sequentially the annual equilibria in wood...

Chapter 12 - Mapping wildland fuel across large regions for the LANDFIRE Prototype Project

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Tracey Frescino; Matthew C. Reeves; Jennifer L. Long

2006-01-01

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, required that the entire array of wildland fuel characteristics be mapped to provide fire and landscape managers with consistent baseline geo-spatial information to plan projects for hazardous fuel mitigation and to improve public and firefighter safety. Fuel...

Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L.

2014-01-01

The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem services. We conclude with an assessment of the role of fire management in an increasingly flammable Southwest.

The LANDFIRE Prototype Project: nationally consistent and locally relevant geospatial data for wildland fire management

Treesearch

Matthew G. Rollins; Christine K. Frame

2006-01-01

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, began in April of 2002 and ended in April of 2005. The project was funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and U.S. Department of the Interior. The objectives of the LANDFIRE Prototype Project were to develop the methods, tools, and protocols...

Demonstration Report, Munitions Management Projects, ESTCP Project MR-200809, ALLTEM Multi-Axis Electromagnetic Induction System Demonstration and Validation, Aberdeen Proving Ground Standardized UXO Technology Demonstration Site, Version 1.0

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-17

to emulate typical impact area conditions. The Open Field area is now divided into four subareas: Legacy, Indirect fire, Direct fire, and Challenge...that could be typically found at an impact area of an indirect fire weapons range. These are 81 mm and 60 mm mortars and 105 ALLTEM APG...munitions. • Open field (direct fire) The direct fire subarea contains only three munition types that could be typically found at an impact area of

Lightning fire research in the Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

J. S. Barrows

1954-01-01

Lightning is the major cause of fires in Rocky Mountain forests. The lightning fire problem is the prime target of a broad research program now known as Project Skyfire. KEYWORDS: lightning, fire research

Exploring eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under climate and land-use changes in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Castanho, A. D.; Moghim, S.; Bras, R. L.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Levine, N. M.; Longo, M.; McKnight, S.; Wang, J.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2012-12-01

Deforestation and drought have imposed regional-scale perturbations onto Amazonian ecosystems and are predicted to cause larger negative impacts on the Amazonian ecosystems and associated regional carbon dynamics in the 21st century. However, global climate models (GCMs) vary greatly in their projections of future climate change in Amazonia, giving rise to uncertainty in the expected fate of the Amazon over the coming century. In this study, we explore the possible eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under projected climate and land-use changes in the 21st century using two state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem models—Ecosystem Demography Model 2.1(ED2.1) and Integrated Biosphere Simulator model (IBIS)—driven by three representative, bias-corrected climate projections from three IPCC GCMs (NCARPCM1, NCARCCSM3 and HadCM3), coupled with two land-use change scenarios (a business-as-usual and a strict governance scenario). We also analyze the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change and fire in driving the projected composition and structure of the Amazonian ecosystems. Our results show that CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation productivity and above-ground biomass (AGB) in the region, while land-use change and fire cause AGB loss and the replacement of forests by the savanna-like vegetation. The impacts of climate change depend strongly on the direction and severity of projected precipitation changes in the region. In particular, when intensified water stress is superimposed on unregulated deforestation, both ecosystem models predict large-scale dieback of Amazonian rainforests.

Pairing Coral Geochemical Analyses with an Ecosystem Services Model to Assess Drivers and Impacts of Sediment Delivery within Micronesia's Largest Estuary, Ngeremeduu Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, S.; Dunbar, R. B.; Mucciarone, D.; Barkdull, M.

2017-12-01

Scientific tools assessing impacts to watershed and coastal ecosystem services, like those from land-use land conversion (LULC), are critical for sustainable land management strategies. Small island nations are particularly vulnerable to LULC threats, especially sediment delivery, given their small spatial size and reliance on natural resources. In the Republic of Palau, a small Pacific island country, three major land-use activities—construction, fires, and agriculture— have increased sediment delivery to important estuarine and coastal habitats (i.e., rivers, mangroves, coral reefs) over the past 30 years. This project examines the predictive capacity of an ecosystem services model, Natural Capital Project's InVEST, for sediment delivery using historic land-use and coral geochemical analysis. These refined model projections are used to assess ecosystem services tradeoffs under different future land development and management scenarios. Coral cores (20-41cm in length) were sampled along a high-to-low sedimentation gradient (i.e., near major rivers (high-impact) and ocean (low-impact)) in Micronesia's largest estuary, Ngeremeduu Bay. Isotopic indicators of seasonality (δ18O and δ13C values (% VPDB)) were used to construct the age model for each core. Barium, Manganese, and Yttrium were used as trace metal proxies for sedimentation and measured in each core using a laser ablation ICP-MS. Finally, the Natural Capital Project's InVEST sediment delivery model was paired with Geospatial data to examine the drivers of sediment delivery (i.e., construction, farms and fires) within these two watersheds. A thirty-year record of trace metal to calcium ratios in coral skeletons show a peak in sedimentation during 2006 and 2007, and in 2012. These results suggest historic peaks in sediment delivery correlating to large-scale road construction and support previous findings that Ngeremeduu Bay has reached a tipping point of retaining sediment. Natural Capital's project InVEST sediment delivery model results suggest fires increases sediment exportation by an order of magnitude compared with the other major land-use activities. A refined measure of LULC from a novel database (earth-moving permits) will be used to develop a more accurate depiction of sediment delivery to estuarine and coastal habitats.

Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Margolis, Ellis; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the onset of fire exclusion in the late 1800s. Variability in cool-season precipitation has been linked to fire occurrence, but the effects of the summer North American monsoon on fire are less understood, as are the effects of climate on fire seasonality. We use a new set of reconstructions for cool-season (October–April) and monsoon-season (July–August) moisture conditions along with a large new fire scar dataset to examine relationships between multi-seasonal climate variability, fire extent, and fire seasonality in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1599–1899 CE). Results suggest that large fires burning in all seasons are strongly influenced by the current year cool-season moisture, but fires burning mid-summer to fall are also influenced by monsoon moisture. Wet conditions several years prior to the fire year during the cool season, and to a lesser extent during the monsoon season, are also important for spring through late-summer fires. Persistent cool-season drought longer than 3 years may inhibit fires due to the lack of moisture to replenish surface fuels. This suggests that fuels may become increasingly limiting for fire occurrence in semi-arid regions that are projected to become drier with climate change.

Inadequate Contract Oversight of Military Construction Projects in Afghanistan Resulted in Increased Hazards to Life and Safety of Coalition Forces

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-08

applicable fire protection standards for two of the three projects we reviewed that required a fire sprinkler system . Specifically, the Secure...RSOI and Command and Control facilities do not have fire sprinkler systems as required by Unified Facilities Criteria 3-600-01, Section 4-2.2...stated that, as such, those facilities did not need fire sprinkler systems . Based on the justification provided by the Air Force on the DD Form 1391s

Coastal bathymetry data collected in June 2014 from Fire Island, New York—The wilderness breach and shoreface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Timothy R.; Miselis, Jennifer L.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Wilson, Kathleen E.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Brenner, Owen T.; Reynolds, Billy J.; Hansen, Mark E.

2016-08-02

Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center in St. Petersburg, Florida, collected bathymetric data along the upper shoreface and within the wilderness breach at Fire Island, New York, in June 2014. The U.S. Geological Survey is involved in a post-Hurricane Sandy effort to map and monitor the morphologic evolution of the shoreface along Fire Island and model the evolution of the wilderness breach as a part of the Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Project GS2-2B. During this study, bathymetry was collected with single-beam echo sounders and global positioning systems, mounted to personal watercraft, along the Fire Island shoreface and within the wilderness breach. Additional bathymetry was collected using backpack global positioning systems along the flood shoals and shallow channels within the wilderness breach.

ESA Fire CCI product assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heil, Angelika; Yue, Chao; Mouillot, Florent; Storm, Thomas; Chuvieco, Emilio; Kaiser, Johannes

2016-04-01

Vegetation fires are a major disturbance in the Earth System. Fires change the biophysical properties and dynamics of ecosystems and alter terrestrial carbon pools. By altering the atmosphere's composition, fire emissions exert a significant climate forcing. To realistically model past and future changes of the Earth System, fire disturbances must be taken into account. Related modelling efforts require consistent global burned area observations covering at least 10 to 20 years. Guided by the specific requirements of a wide range of end users, the ESA fire_cci project is currently computing a new global burned area dataset. It applies a newly developed spectral change detection algorithm upon the full ENVISAT-MERIS archive (2002 to 2012). The algorithm relies on MODIS active fire information as "seed". A first, formally validated version has been released for the period 2006 to 2008. It comprises a pixel burned area product (spatial resolution of 333 m) with date detection information and a biweekly grid product at 0.5 degree spatial resolution. We compare fire_cci burned area with other global burned area products (MCD64, GFED4(s), GEOLAND) and a set of active fires data (hotspots from MODIS, TRMM, AATSR and fire radiative power from GFAS). Output from the ongoing processing of the full MERIS timeseries will be incorporated into the study, as far as available. The analysis of patterns of agreement and disagreement between fire_cci and other products provides a better understanding of product characteristics and uncertainties. The intercomparison of the 2006-2008 fire_cci time series shows a close agreement with GFED4 data in terms of global burned area and the general spatial and temporal patterns. Pronounced differences, however, emerge for specific regions or fire events. Burned area mapped by fire_cci tends to be notably higher in regions where small agricultural fires predominate. The improved detection of small agricultural fires by fire_cci can be related to the increased spatial resolution of the MERIS sensor (333 m compared to 500 in MODIS). This is illustrated in detail using the example of the extreme 2006 spring fires in Eastern Europe.

Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Yufang; Goulden, Michael L.; Faivre, Nicolas; Veraverbeke, Sander; Sun, Fengpeng; Hall, Alex; Hand, Michael S.; Hook, Simon; Randerson, James T.

2015-09-01

The area burned by Southern California wildfires has increased in recent decades, with implications for human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem management. Meteorology and fuel structure are universally recognized controllers of wildfire, but their relative importance, and hence the efficacy of abatement and suppression efforts, remains controversial. Southern California’s wildfires can be partitioned by meteorology: fires typically occur either during Santa Ana winds (SA fires) in October through April, or warm and dry periods in June through September (non-SA fires). Previous work has not quantitatively distinguished between these fire regimes when assessing economic impacts or climate change influence. Here we separate five decades of fire perimeters into those coinciding with and without SA winds. The two fire types contributed almost equally to burned area, yet SA fires were responsible for 80% of cumulative 1990-2009 economic losses (3.1 Billion). The damage disparity was driven by fire characteristics: SA fires spread three times faster, occurred closer to urban areas, and burned into areas with greater housing values. Non-SA fires were comparatively more sensitive to age-dependent fuels, often occurred in higher elevation forests, lasted for extended periods, and accounted for 70% of total suppression costs. An improved distinction of fire type has implications for future projections and management. The area burned in non-SA fires is projected to increase 77% (±43%) by the mid-21st century with warmer and drier summers, and the SA area burned is projected to increase 64% (±76%), underscoring the need to evaluate the allocation and effectiveness of suppression investments.

Neural correlates for angular head velocity in the rat dorsal tegmental nucleus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bassett, J. P.; Taube, J. S.; Oman, C. M. (Principal Investigator)

2001-01-01

Many neurons in the rat lateral mammillary nuclei (LMN) fire selectively in relation to the animal's head direction (HD) in the horizontal plane independent of the rat's location or behavior. One hypothesis of how this representation is generated and updated is via subcortical projections from the dorsal tegmental nucleus (DTN). Here we report the type of activity in DTN neurons. The majority of cells (75%) fired as a function of the rat's angular head velocity (AHV). Cells exhibited one of two types of firing patterns: (1) symmetric, in which the firing rate was positively correlated with AHV during head turns in both directions, and (2) asymmetric, in which the firing rate was positively correlated with head turns in one direction and correlated either negatively or not at all in the opposite direction. In addition to modulation by AHV, some of the AHV cells (40.1%) were weakly modulated by the rat's linear velocity, and a smaller number were modulated by HD (11%) or head pitch (15.9%). Autocorrelation analyses indicated that with the head stationary, AHV cells displayed irregular discharge patterns. Because afferents from the DTN are the major source of information projecting to the LMN, these results suggest that AHV information from the DTN plays a significant role in generating the HD signal in LMN. A model is proposed showing how DTN AHV cells can generate and update the LMN HD cell signal.

Fuels Products of the LANDFIRE Project

Treesearch

Matthew C. Reeves; Jay R. Kost; Kevin C. Ryan

2006-01-01

The LANDFIRE project is a collaborative interagency effort designed to provide seamless, nationally consistent, locally relevant geographic information systems (GIS) data layers depicting wildland fuels, vegetation and fire regime characteristics. The LANDFIRE project is the first of its kind and offers new opportunity for fire management and research activities. Here...

Vegetation limits the impact of a warm climate on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Ali, Adam A; Carcaillet, Christopher; Blarquez, Olivier; Hély, Christelle; Terrier, Aurélie; Genries, Aurélie; Bergeron, Yves

2013-09-01

Strategic introduction of less flammable broadleaf vegetation into landscapes was suggested as a management strategy for decreasing the risk of boreal wildfires projected under climatic change. However, the realization and strength of this offsetting effect in an actual environment remain to be demonstrated. Here we combined paleoecological data, global climate models and wildfire modelling to assess regional fire frequency (RegFF, i.e. the number of fires through time) in boreal forests as it relates to tree species composition and climate over millennial time-scales. Lacustrine charcoals from northern landscapes of eastern boreal Canada indicate that RegFF during the mid-Holocene (6000-3000 yr ago) was significantly higher than pre-industrial RegFF (AD c. 1750). In southern landscapes, RegFF was not significantly higher than the pre-industrial RegFF in spite of the declining drought severity. The modelling experiment indicates that the high fire risk brought about by a warmer and drier climate in the south during the mid-Holocene was offset by a higher broadleaf component. Our data highlight an important function for broadleaf vegetation in determining boreal RegFF in a warmer climate. We estimate that its feedback may be large enough to offset the projected climate change impacts on drought conditions. © 2013 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Preliminary results of the PREFER FP7 Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fusilli, Lorenzo; Laneve, Giovanni; De Bonis, Roberto; Sebastian, Ana; Ferrucci, Fabrizio; Oliveira, Sandra

2014-05-01

The need to improve the information and intelligence support for forest fire prevention is widely recognized. Fire prevention is still the most cost-effective strategy when compared to firefighting and extinguishing that are costly, local, and triggered only in response to already ongoing crises. PREFER project, funded under the EU FP7 (G.A. 312931), intends to contribute at responding to such a pragmatic need of southern Europe's forests by: providing timely information products based on the exploitation of all available spacecraft sensors, offering a portfolio of products focused on pre- and post-crisis forest fire emergency, suitable for the users in the different countries of the European Mediterranean area. The PREFER Service portfolio consists of two main services: 1. Information Support to Fire Preparedness/Prevention Phase" (ISP) Service 2. Information Support to Fire Recovery/Reconstruction Phase" (ISR) Service This service is already at an advanced stage having completed the first year of activity. During this time several products have been consolidated: seasonal fuel maps; daily and seasonal fire hazard maps; seasonal risk maps; prescribed fire maps. This paper aims at presenting the preliminary results of the research activity carried out in the framework of the PREFER project, focusing, in particular, on these recalled above. As for Fire Risk and Hazard assessment, many indexes have been developed in the last years. Hardly any of them uses data derived from satellite images. The FPI index is an exception to this rule which, in addition, makes use of meteorological data. In spite of being a very complete index, the FPI still allows room for improvement which justify the interest of PREFER in it. PREFER's innovative approach to FPI will allow taking into account the effect of solar illumination conditions in determining the humidity present in the dead vegetation, and therefore its proneness to burn. PREFER innovation also focus in allowing the index to take into account the influence of water present in the alive vegetation (relevant in determining the fire regime) through the Equivalent Water Thickness. PREFER will use daily FPI forecasts to produce a seasonal fire hazard index by introducing in the model the human factor as captured by the fire occurrence statistics. PREFER will produce also seasonal fire risk maps by combining the seasonal hazard data with vulnerability and exposure maps. Finally, Prescribed Burning (PB) represents the controlled application of fire to vegetation under specific environmental conditions to attain planned resource management objectives. The main objective of the PREFER service for PB is to support the user in the identification of the areas and the time, that is where and when, the PB practice is applicable in a secure way. The main innovation, taking into account the results previously obtained in the frame work of other European projects (FIREPARADOX), will be the integration of the advanced remote sensing techniques that have not yet been developed for the problem under study, aiming at developing an index capable to provide the right time to intervene with the PB in the area of interest.

The Lick Creek Demonstration - Forest Renewal Through Partial Harvest and Fire

Treesearch

Benjamin Zamora; Melinda Martin

2006-01-01

The Lick Creek Demonstration Site on the Pomeroy Ranger District, Umatilla National Forest, is a Joint Fire Science Program sponsored project to create a demonstration of the effects of fuels management on forest health. The project was initiated in 2001 and involved the integration of two levels of partial harvest with prescribed fire, a burn only treatment and an...

From grid cells to place cells with realistic field sizes

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

While grid cells in the medial entorhinal cortex (MEC) of rodents have multiple, regularly arranged firing fields, place cells in the cornu ammonis (CA) regions of the hippocampus mostly have single spatial firing fields. Since there are extensive projections from MEC to the CA regions, many models have suggested that a feedforward network can transform grid cell firing into robust place cell firing. However, these models generate place fields that are consistently too small compared to those recorded in experiments. Here, we argue that it is implausible that grid cell activity alone can be transformed into place cells with robust place fields of realistic size in a feedforward network. We propose two solutions to this problem. Firstly, weakly spatially modulated cells, which are abundant throughout EC, provide input to downstream place cells along with grid cells. This simple model reproduces many place cell characteristics as well as results from lesion studies. Secondly, the recurrent connections between place cells in the CA3 network generate robust and realistic place fields. Both mechanisms could work in parallel in the hippocampal formation and this redundancy might account for the robustness of place cell responses to a range of disruptions of the hippocampal circuitry. PMID:28750005

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

PubMed

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupp, T. Scott; Olson, Mark; Adams, Layne G.; Dale, Bruce W.; Joly, Kyle; Henkelman, Jonathan; Collins, William B.; Starfield, Anthony M.

2006-01-01

Caribou are an integral component of high‐latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long‐term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5‐fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce–lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.

Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire–climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600–2015 CE

PubMed Central

Taylor, Alan H.; Trouet, Valerie; Skinner, Carl N.; Stephens, Scott

2016-01-01

Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire–climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600–2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring–based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire–climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation—following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)—reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire–climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire–climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California. PMID:27849589

Greenhouse Gas and Criteria Air Pollutant Emission Reductions from Forest Fuel Treatment Projects in Placer County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saah, D. S.; Moritz, M.; Ganz, D. J.; Stine, P. A.; Moody, T.

2010-12-01

Years of successful fire suppression activities have left forests unnaturally dense, overstocked, and with high hazardous fuel loads. Wildfires, particularly those of high severity, may dramatically reduce carbon stocks and convert forested lands from carbon sinks to decades-long carbon sources . Forest resource managers are currently pursuing fuels reduction and mitigation strategies to reduce wildfire risk and maintain carbon stocks. These projects include selective thinning and removal of trees and brush to return forest ecosystems to more natural stocking levels, resulting in a more fire-resilient forest that in theory would retain higher carry capacity for standing above ground carbon. Resource managers are exploring the possibility of supporting these local forest management projects by offering greenhouse gas (GHG) offsets to project developers that require GHG emissions mitigation. Using robust field data, this research project modeled three types of carbon benefits that could be realized from forest management: 1. Fuels treatments in the study area were shown to reduce the GHG and Criteria Air Pollutant emissions from wildfires by decreasing the probability, extent, and severity of fires and the corresponding loss in forest carbon stocks; 2. Biomass utilization from fuel treatment was shown to reduce GHG and Criteria Air Pollutant emissions over the duration of the fuels treatment project compared to fossil fuel energy. 3. Management and thinning of forests in order to stimulate growth, resulting in more rapid uptake of atmospheric carbon and approaching a carbon carrying capacity stored in a forest ecosystem under prevailing environmental conditions and natural disturbance regimes.

A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, Matthias

2015-04-01

Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F (i.e. F_0.99 ) was explained by two terms of the climatic water balance: i) mean annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), which is a proxy for fuel productivity, and ii) mean annual water deficit (D=PET-AET, where PET is mean annual potential evapotranspiration), which is a measure of fuel drying potential. As expected, F_0.99 was close to zero in environments of low AET (e.g. deserts) or low D (e.g. wet forests), due to strong fuel productivity or fuel dryness constraints, and maximum for environments of intermediate AET and D (e.g. tropical savannas). The topography of the F_0.99 response surface was analysed to explore how the relative importance of fuel productivity and fuel dryness constraints varied with the climatic water balance, and geographically across the continents. Consistent with current understanding of global pyrogeography, the hydroclimatic fire model predicted that fire activity is mostly constrained by fuel productivity in arid environments with grassy fuels and by fuel dryness in humid environments with litter fuels derived from woody shrubs and trees. The model provides a simple, yet biophysically-based, approach to evaluating potential for incremental change in fire activity or transformational change in fire types under future climate conditions.

Modeling Fire Emissions across Central and Southern Italy: Implications for Land and Fire Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Spano, D.

2015-12-01

Fires play a relevant role in the global and regional carbon cycle, representing a remarkable source of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that influence atmosphere budgets and climate. In addition, the wildfire increase projected in Southern Europe due to climate change (CC) and concurrent exacerbation of extreme weather conditions could also lead to a significant rise in GHG. Recently, in the context of the Italian National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (SNAC), several approaches were identified as valuable tools to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires, in order to reduce landscape susceptibility and to contribute to the efforts of carbon emission mitigation proposed within the Kyoto protocol. Active forest and fuel management (such as prescribed burning, fuel reduction and removal, weed and flammable shrub control, creation of fuel discontinuity) is recognised to be a key element to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires. Despite this, overall there is a lack of studies about the effectiveness of fire emission mitigation strategies. The current work aims to analyse the potential of a combination of fuel management practices in mitigating emissions from forest fires and evaluate valuable and viable options across Central and Southern Italy. These objectives were achieved throughout a retrospective application of an integrated approach combining a fire emission model (FOFEM - First Order Fire Effect Model) with spatially explicit, comprehensive, and accurate fire, vegetation and weather data for the period 2004-2012. Furthermore, a number of silvicultural techniques were combined to develop several fuel management scenarios and then tested to evaluate their potential in mitigating fire emissions.The preliminary results showed the crucial role of appropriate fuel, fire behavior, and weather data to reduce bias in quantifying the source and the composition of fire emissions and to attain reasonable estimations. Also, the current study highlighted that balanced combination of fuel management techniques could not only be a viable mean to reduce fire emissions but at the same time prevent future wildfires and the related threat to human lives and activities.

Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

PubMed

Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

2016-01-01

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California

PubMed Central

Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A.; Waller, Eric K.; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Dolfi, Emmalee

2016-01-01

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change. PMID:27124597

New Technology for the Fire Attire

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Although little can be done to reduce the risks of firefighting, something can be done to curb the injuries and fatalities. This is the goal of Project FIRES, a program jointly sponsored by NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency's U.S. Fire Administration with technical management provided by Marshall Space Flight Center. Project FIRES (Firefighter's Integrated Response Equipment System) involves applications of advanced materials and design concepts, derived from Apollo to update existing gear which does not adequately protect against many of the hazards encountered in fire suppression activities. A major focus of the effort involves application to the FIRES ensemble of lightweight, fire-resistant, heat-protective materials originally developed for use in astronauts' space suits or in spacecraft components which require thermal protection. Data from the fourteen municipal fire departments participating in the field evaluation will form a basis for development of new nationwide protective ensemble students.

Enhancing fire science exchange: The Joint Fire Science Program's National Network of Knowledge Exchange Consortia

Treesearch

Vita Wright; Crystal Kolden; Todd Kipfer; Kristine Lee; Adrian Leighton; Jim Riddering; Leana Schelvan

2011-01-01

The Northern Rocky Mountain region is one of the most fire-prone regions in the United States. With a history of large fires that have shaped national policy, including the fires of 1910 and 2000 in Idaho and Montana and the Yellowstone fires of 1988, this region is projected to have many large severe fires in the future. Communication about fire science needs and...

Utilizing inventory information to calibrate a landscape simulation model

Treesearch

Steven R. Shifley; Frank R., III Thompson; David R. Larsen; David J. Mladenoff; Eric J. Gustafson

2000-01-01

LANDIS is a spatially explicit model that uses mapped landscape conditions as a starting point and projects the patterns in forest vegetation that will result from alternative harvest practices, alternative fire regimes, and wind events. LANDIS was originally developed for Lake States forests, but it is capable of handling the input, output, bookkeeping, and mapping...

Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models

Treesearch

Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

2012-01-01

The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) uses spatial vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) to forecast future vegetation conditions and the interacting effects of natural disturbances and management activities. Results from ILAP will help land managers, planners, and policymakers evaluate management strategies that reduce fire risk, improve...

Development of infrared scene projectors for testing fire-fighter cameras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neira, Jorge E.; Rice, Joseph P.; Amon, Francine K.

2008-04-01

We have developed two types of infrared scene projectors for hardware-in-the-loop testing of thermal imaging cameras such as those used by fire-fighters. In one, direct projection, images are projected directly into the camera. In the other, indirect projection, images are projected onto a diffuse screen, which is then viewed by the camera. Both projectors use a digital micromirror array as the spatial light modulator, in the form of a Micromirror Array Projection System (MAPS) engine having resolution of 800 x 600 with mirrors on a 17 micrometer pitch, aluminum-coated mirrors, and a ZnSe protective window. Fire-fighter cameras are often based upon uncooled microbolometer arrays and typically have resolutions of 320 x 240 or lower. For direct projection, we use an argon-arc source, which provides spectral radiance equivalent to a 10,000 Kelvin blackbody over the 7 micrometer to 14 micrometer wavelength range, to illuminate the micromirror array. For indirect projection, an expanded 4 watt CO II laser beam at a wavelength of 10.6 micrometers illuminates the micromirror array and the scene formed by the first-order diffracted light from the array is projected onto a diffuse aluminum screen. In both projectors, a well-calibrated reference camera is used to provide non-uniformity correction and brightness calibration of the projected scenes, and the fire-fighter cameras alternately view the same scenes. In this paper, we compare the two methods for this application and report on our quantitative results. Indirect projection has an advantage of being able to more easily fill the wide field of view of the fire-fighter cameras, which typically is about 50 degrees. Direct projection more efficiently utilizes the available light, which will become important in emerging multispectral and hyperspectral applications.

Mapping landscape fire frequency for fire regime condition class

Treesearch

Dale A. Hamilton; Wendel J. Hann

2015-01-01

Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) is a departure index that compares the current amounts of the different vegetation succession classes, fire frequency, and fire severity to historic reference conditions. FRCC assessments have been widely used for evaluating ecosystem status in many areas of the U.S. in reports such as land use plans, fire management plans, project...

How to model supernovae in simulations of star and galaxy formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, Philip F.; Wetzel, Andrew; Kereš, Dušan; Faucher-Giguère, Claude-André; Quataert, Eliot; Boylan-Kolchin, Michael; Murray, Norman; Hayward, Christopher C.; El-Badry, Kareem

2018-06-01

We study the implementation of mechanical feedback from supernovae (SNe) and stellar mass loss in galaxy simulations, within the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We present the FIRE-2 algorithm for coupling mechanical feedback, which can be applied to any hydrodynamics method (e.g. fixed-grid, moving-mesh, and mesh-less methods), and black hole as well as stellar feedback. This algorithm ensures manifest conservation of mass, energy, and momentum, and avoids imprinting `preferred directions' on the ejecta. We show that it is critical to incorporate both momentum and thermal energy of mechanical ejecta in a self-consistent manner, accounting for SNe cooling radii when they are not resolved. Using idealized simulations of single SN explosions, we show that the FIRE-2 algorithm, independent of resolution, reproduces converged solutions in both energy and momentum. In contrast, common `fully thermal' (energy-dump) or `fully kinetic' (particle-kicking) schemes in the literature depend strongly on resolution: when applied at mass resolution ≳100 M⊙, they diverge by orders of magnitude from the converged solution. In galaxy-formation simulations, this divergence leads to orders-of-magnitude differences in galaxy properties, unless those models are adjusted in a resolution-dependent way. We show that all models that individually time-resolve SNe converge to the FIRE-2 solution at sufficiently high resolution (<100 M⊙). However, in both idealized single-SN simulations and cosmological galaxy-formation simulations, the FIRE-2 algorithm converges much faster than other sub-grid models without re-tuning parameters.

Chapter 10 - Wildfire and fire severity effects on post-fire carbon and nitrogen cycling in forest soil (Project NC-EM-F-14-1)

Treesearch

Jessica R. Miesel; Randy Kolka; Phil Townsend

2018-01-01

Fire is a key ecological driver in determining vegetation composition, biomass, and ecosystem dynamics in coniferous forests of the Laurentian Mixed Forest in the Great Lakes region (Cleland and others 2004, Frelich 1995). Regional projections of future climate conditions indicate warmer temperatures, more variable precipitation patterns, and greater moisture stress (...

Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nepstad, Daniel C.; Brown, I. Foster; Setzer, Alberto

2000-01-01

Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.

Spatial fuel data products of the LANDFIRE Project

Treesearch

Matt Reeves; Kevin C. Ryan; Matthew G. Rollins; Thomas G. Thompson

2009-01-01

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) Project is mapping wildland fuels, vegetation, and fire regime characteristics across the United States. The LANDFIRE project is unique because of its national scope, creating an integrated product suite at 30-m spatial resolution and complete spatial coverage of all lands within the 50...

Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laurance, William F.

2004-01-01

This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors that affect trajectories of forest regeneration and carbon sequestration on abandoned lands. Extrapolating results from local studies of biomass dynamics in fragmented and regenerating forests to landscape and regional scales in Amazonia, using remote sensing and GIS. Testing the hypothesis that intact Amazonian forests are functioning as a significant carbon sink. Examining destructive synergisms between forest fragmentation and fire. Assessing the short-term impacts of selective logging on aboveground biomass. Developing GIS models that integrate current spatial data on forest cover, deforestation, logging, mining, highway and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wild fires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the future condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests over the next 20-25 years. Devising predictive spatial models to assess the influence of varied biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on Amazonian deforestation.

Community participation in fire management planning: The Trinity county fire safe council's fire plan

Treesearch

Yvonne Everett

2008-01-01

In 1999, Trinity County CA, initiated a participatory fire management planning effort. Since that time, the Trinity County Fire Safe Council has completed critical portions of a fire safe plan and has begun to implement projects defined in the plan. Completion of a GIS based, landscape scale fuels reduction element in the plan defined by volunteer fire fighters, agency...

A new North American fire scar network for reconstructing historical pyrogeography, 1600-1900 AD

Treesearch

Donald A. Falk; Thomas Swetnam; Thomas Kitzberger; Elaine Sutherland; Peter Brown; Erica Bigio; Matthew Hall

2013-01-01

The Fire and Climate Synthesis (FACS) project is a collaboration of about 50 fire ecologists to compile and synthesize fire and climate data for western North America. We have compiled nearly 900 multi-century fire-scar based fire histories from the western United States, Canada, and Mexico. The resulting tree-ring based fire history is the largest and most spatially...

Negligent and intentional fires in Portugal: the role of human and biophysical drivers on the spatial distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário; Amraoui, Malik; Tedim, Fantina

2017-04-01

The European Mediterranean countries, such as Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece, have the higher incidence of fire. Of these countries, Portugal present the highest average number of fires (NF) and one of the highest burnt area (BA), in spite of its relatively smaller land area. The study period is focused in the recent years of 2012 - 2014, when a total of 59 257 fires were recorded and the fire cause is known for more than 50% of the fire records. All fires with known causes were then classified into intentional (40% of the total number of fires) and negligent (60%), leading to a total of 45% of fires related with human factors and activities. Taking into account these values the authors believe it's necessary to better understand the fire regime of this type of fires for a better fire prevention, firefighting and crisis management. Accordingly, the use of statistical analysis and GIS techniques were used to assess the spatial distribution of the human caused fires in each of the NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics level I, which divides Portugal in 5 basic economic regions, namely Norte, Centro, Area Metropolitana de Lisboa, Alentejo, and Algarve. The number of fires distribution increases with latitude, making north of Portugal the region with the highest number of fires. The analysis will also aims to assess the role of the most important human and biophysical drivers of the spatial distribution, namely the population density, land use land cover (LULC), distance to communication routes (roads and railways) and topographic variables (altitude, slope). The results show that: a) population density is highly and positively correlated with the agglomeration of fire ignitions, but doesn't imply highest burned area; b) burnt area increase with the distance to roads and altitude; and, c) 58% of the fires occurred on agriculture areas and 33% of fires occurred in forest and scrubs areas. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; (ii) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF for providing the fire data.

Documenting PyroCb Development on High-Intensity Boreal Fires: Implications for the Arctic Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocks, B. J.; Fromm, M. D.; Servranckx, R.; Lindsey, D.

2007-12-01

The recent confirmation that smoke from high-intensity boreal forest fires can reach the Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) through pyroconvection and be transported long distances has raised concern over the wider-scale environmental impact of boreal fire smoke. This concern is further elevated as climate change projections indicate a significant increase in the frequency and severity of boreal forest fires over the next century. Smoke in the UTLS is frequently transported to the Arctic and may have important implications for the radiative energy budget in the polar region. Soot deposition from fires may lead to enhanced melting of sea ice and glaciers, and the chemical impact of fire emissions at high altitudes is largely unknown. This knowledge gap will be addressed during the International Polar Year (IPY), as boreal fire emissions will be tracked and documented in detail through aerial, satellite and ground-based measurements, as a key component of the POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport) and ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) projects to be conducted in 2008. A large fire in the Canadian Northwest Territories burned throughout the month of June 2007, in a remote region where forest fires are not actively suppressed, eventually reaching 90,000 hectares in size. This fire was monitored for blowup one week in advance; it erupted into pyroconvection on June 25, 2007. We present an analysis of this event combining satellite data with ground-based measurements to document the development and impact of this classic pyroCb event. Under extreme fire danger conditions, the fire burned close to 20,000 hectares on that day. Fire behavior was consistent with predictions using the Canadian Fire Behavior Prediction System, with the fire spreading at 2.7 km/hr, consuming 33,000 kg of fuel hourly, generating an energy release rate of ~45,000 kW/m. This constitutes a typical high-intensity boreal crown fire, common across northern Canada every summer, and often capable of producing independent pyroconvection. The June 25 blowup was monitored using OMI AI, CALIPSO, Aqua MODIS, AVHRR and GOES satellite imagery, and these measurements validated the predicted fire behavior, including the development of a convection column that rose 10-11 km and injected smoke within the UTLS. Over subsequent days this smoke spread to Arctic latitudes (70-80 degrees N).

Three-dimensional modeling of HCFC-123 in the atmosphere: assessing its potential environmental impacts and rationale for continued use.

PubMed

Wuebbles, Donald J; Patten, Kenneth O

2009-05-01

HCFC-123 (C2HCl2F3) is used in large refrigeration systems and as a fire suppression agent blend. Like other hydrochlorofluorocarbons, production and consumption of HCFC-123 is limited under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The purpose of this study is to update the understanding of the current and projected impacts of HCFC-123 on stratospheric ozone and on climate and to discuss the potential environmental effects from continued use of this chemical for specific applications. For the first time, the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) of a HCFC is determined using a three-dimensional model (MOZART-3) of atmospheric physics and chemistry. All previous studies have relied on results from two-dimensional models. The derived HCFC-123 ODP of 0.0098 is smaller than previous values. Analysis of the projected uses and emissions of HCFC-123, assuming reasonable levels of projected growth and use in centrifugal chiller and fire suppressant applications, suggests an extremely small impact on the environment due to its short atmospheric lifetime, low ODP, low Global Warming Potential (GWP), and the small production and emission of its limited applications. The current contribution of HCFC-123 to stratospheric reactive chlorine is too small to be measurable.

Two global data sets of daily fire emission injection heights since 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rémy, Samuel; Veira, Andreas; Paugam, Ronan; Sofiev, Mikhail; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Marenco, Franco; Burton, Sharon P.; Benedetti, Angela; Engelen, Richard J.; Ferrare, Richard; Hair, Jonathan W.

2017-02-01

The Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) assimilates fire radiative power (FRP) observations from satellite-based sensors to produce daily estimates of biomass burning emissions. It has been extended to include information about injection heights derived from fire observations and meteorological information from the operational weather forecasts of ECMWF. Injection heights are provided by two distinct methods: the Integrated Monitoring and Modelling System for wildland fires (IS4FIRES) parameterisation and the one-dimensional plume rise model (PRM). A global database of daily biomass burning emissions and injection heights at 0.1° resolution has been produced for 2003-2015 and is continuously extended in near-real time with the operational GFAS service of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). In this study, the two injection height data sets were compared with the new MPHP2 (MISR Plume Height Project 2) satellite-based plume height retrievals. The IS4FIRES parameterisation showed a better overall agreement than the observations, while the PRM was better at capturing the variability of injection heights. The performance of both parameterisations is also dependent on the type of vegetation. Furthermore, the use of biomass burning emission heights from GFAS in atmospheric composition forecasts was assessed in two case studies: the South AMerican Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) campaign which took place in September 2012 in Brazil, and a series of large fire events in the western USA in August 2013. For these case studies, forecasts of biomass burning aerosol species by the Composition Integrated Forecasting System (C-IFS) of CAMS were found to better reproduce the observed vertical distribution when using PRM injection heights from GFAS compared to aerosols emissions being prescribed at the surface. The globally available GFAS injection heights introduced and evaluated in this study provide a comprehensive data set for future fire and atmospheric composition modelling studies.

The BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework: Recent Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, D. C.; Larkin, N.; Raffuse, S. M.; Strand, T.; ONeill, S. M.; Leung, F. T.; Qu, J. J.; Hao, X.

2012-12-01

BlueSky systems—a set of decision support tools including SmartFire and the BlueSky Framework—aid public policy decision makers and scientific researchers in evaluating the air quality impacts of fires. Smoke and fire managers use BlueSky systems in decisions about prescribed burns and wildland firefighting. Air quality agencies use BlueSky systems to support decisions related to air quality regulations. We will discuss a range of recent improvements to the BlueSky systems, as well as examples of applications and future plans. BlueSky systems have the flexibility to accept basic fire information from virtually any source and can reconcile multiple information sources so that duplication of fire records is eliminated. BlueSky systems currently apply information from (1) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hazard Mapping System (HMS), which represents remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES); (2) the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) interagency project, which derives fire perimeters from Landsat 30-meter burn scars; (3) the Geospatial Multi-Agency Coordination Group (GeoMAC), which produces helicopter-flown burn perimeters; and (4) ground-based fire reports, such as the ICS-209 reports managed by the National Wildfire Coordinating Group. Efforts are currently underway to streamline the use of additional ground-based systems, such as states' prescribed burn databases. BlueSky systems were recently modified to address known uncertainties in smoke modeling associated with (1) estimates of biomass consumption derived from sparse fuel moisture data, and (2) models of plume injection heights. Additional sources of remotely sensed data are being applied to address these issues as follows: - The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis Real-Time (TMPA-RT) data set is being used to improve dead fuel moisture estimates. - EastFire live fuel moisture estimates, which are derived from NASA's MODIS direct broadcast, are being used to improve live fuel moisture estimates. - NASA's Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) stereo heights are being used to improve estimates of plume injection heights. Further, the Fire Location and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBÉ) model was incorporated into the BlueSky Framework as an alternative means of calculating fire emissions. FLAMBÉ directly estimates emissions on the basis of fire detections and radiance measures from NASA's MODIS and NOAA's GOES satellites. (The authors gratefully acknowledge NASA's Applied Sciences Program [Grant Nos. NN506AB52A and NNX09AV76G)], the USDA Forest Service, and the Joint Fire Science Program for their support.)

Smoke and fire characteristics for cerrado and deforestation burns in Brazil: BASE-B experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, D.E.; Susott, R.A.; Babbitt, R.E.

1992-09-20

Fires of the tropical forests and savannas are a major source of particulate matter and trace gases affecting the atmosphere globally. A paucity of quantitative information exists for these ecosystems with respect to fuel biomass, smoke emissions, and fire behavior conditions affecting the release of emissions. Five test fires were performed during August and September 1990 in the cerrado (savannalike region) in central Brazil (three fires) and tropical moist forest (two fires) in the eastern Amazon. This paper details the gases released, the ratios of the gases to each other and to particulate matter, fuel loads and the fraction consumedmore » (combustion factors), and the fire behavior associated with biomass consumption. Models are presented for evaluating emission factors for CH{sub 4}, CO{sub 2}, CO, H{sub 2}, and particles less than 2.5 {mu}m diameter (PM2.5) as a function of combustion efficiency. The ratio of carbon released as CO{sub 2} (combustion efficiency) for the cerrado fires averaged 0.94 and for the deforestation fires it decreased from 0.88 for the flaming phase to <0.80 during the smoldering phase of combustion. For tropical ecosystems, emissions of most products of incomplete combustion are projected to be lower than previous estimates for savanna ecosystems and somewhat higher for fires used for deforestation purposes. 59 refs., 9 figs., 10 tabs.« less

Modeling new coal projects: supercritical or subcritical?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carrino, A.J.; Jones, R.B.

Decisions made on new build coal-fired plants are driven by several factors - emissions, fuel logistics and electric transmission access all provide constraints. The crucial economic decision whether to build supercritical or subcritical units often depends on assumptions concerning the reliability/availability of each technology, the cost of on-fuel operations including maintenance, the generation efficiencies and the potential for emissions credits at some future value. Modeling the influence of these key factors requires analysis and documentation to assure the assets actually meet the projected financial performance. This article addresses some of the issue related to the trade-offs that have the potentialmore » to be driven by the supercritical/subcritical decision. Solomon Associates has been collecting cost, generation and reliability data on coal-fired power generation assets for approximately 10 years using a strict methodology and taxonomy to categorize and compare actual plant operations data. This database provides validated information not only on performance, but also on alternative performance scenarios, which can provide useful insights in the pro forma financial analysis and models of new plants. 1 ref., 1 fig., 3 tabs.« less

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pickens, Bradley A.; Marcus, Jeffrey F.; Carpenter, John P.; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J.; Collazo, Jaime A.

2017-01-01

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

Post-Fire Spatial Patterns of Soil Nitrogen Mineralization and Microbial Abundance

PubMed Central

Smithwick, Erica A. H.; Naithani, Kusum J.; Balser, Teri C.; Romme, William H.; Turner, Monica G.

2012-01-01

Stand-replacing fires influence soil nitrogen availability and microbial community composition, which may in turn mediate post-fire successional dynamics and nutrient cycling. However, fires create patchiness at both local and landscape scales and do not result in consistent patterns of ecological dynamics. The objectives of this study were to (1) quantify the spatial structure of microbial communities in forest stands recently affected by stand-replacing fire and (2) determine whether microbial variables aid predictions of in situ net nitrogen mineralization rates in recently burned stands. The study was conducted in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) and Engelmann spruce/subalpine fir (Picea engelmannii/Abies lasiocarpa) forest stands that burned during summer 2000 in Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, USA). Using a fully probabilistic spatial process model and Bayesian kriging, the spatial structure of microbial lipid abundance and fungi-to-bacteria ratios were found to be spatially structured within plots two years following fire (for most plots, autocorrelation range varied from 1.5 to 10.5 m). Congruence of spatial patterns among microbial variables, in situ net N mineralization, and cover variables was evident. Stepwise regression resulted in significant models of in situ net N mineralization and included variables describing fungal and bacterial abundance, although explained variance was low (R2<0.29). Unraveling complex spatial patterns of nutrient cycling and the biotic factors that regulate it remains challenging but is critical for explaining post-fire ecosystem function, especially in Greater Yellowstone, which is projected to experience increased fire frequencies by mid 21st Century. PMID:23226324

The Development of Midlatitude Cirrus Models for MODIS Using FIRE-I, FIRE-II, and ARM In Situ Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nasiri, Shaima L.; Baum, Bryan A.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Yang, Ping; Poellot, Michael R.; Kratz, David P.; Hu, Yong-Xiang

2002-01-01

Detailed in situ data from cirrus clouds have been collected during dedicated field Campaigns, but the use of the size and habit distribution data has been lagging in the development of more realistic cirrus scattering models. In this study, the authors examine the use of in situ cirrus data collected during three field campaigns to develop more realistic midlatitude cirrus microphysical models. Data are used from the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)-I (1986) and FIRE-II (1991) campaigns and from a recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program campaign held in March-April of 2000. The microphysical models are based on measured vertical distributions of both particle size and particle habit and are used to develop new scattering models for a suite of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) bands spanning visible. near-infrared, and infrared wavelengths. The sensitivity of the resulting scattering properties to the underlying assumptions of the assumed particle size and habit distributions are examined. It is found that the near-infrared bands are sensitive not only to the discretization of the size distribution but also to the assumed habit distribution. In addition. the results indicate that the effective diameter calculated from a given size distribution tends to be sensitive to the number of size bins that are used to discretize the data and also to the ice-crystal habit distribution.

Bark heat resistance of small trees in Californian mixed conifer forests: Testing some model assumptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Schwartz, Mark

2003-01-01

An essential component to models of fire-caused tree mortality is an assessment of cambial damage. Cambial heat resistance has been traditionally measured in large overstory trees with thick bark, although small trees have thinner bark and thus are more sensitive to fire. We undertook this study to determine if current models of bark heat transfer are applicable to small trees (<20 cm diameter at breast height (dbh)). We performed this work in situ on four common species in the mixed conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada, California.The allometric relationship between bole diameter and bark thickness for each species was linear, even for very small trees (5 cm dbh). Heating experiments demonstrated that bark thickness was the primary determinant of cambial heat resistance. We found only slight, but statistically significant, among species differences in bark thermal properties. Our most significant finding was that small trees were more resistant to heating than expected from commonly used models of bark heat transfer. Our results may differ from those of existing models because we found smaller trees to have a greater proportion of inner bark, which appears to have superior insulating properties compared to outer bark. From a management perspective, growth projections suggest that a 50-year fire-free interval may allow some fire intolerant species to achieve at least some degree of cambial heat resistance in the Sierra Nevada.

The Alberta smoke plume observation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Kerry; Pankratz, Al; Mooney, Curtis; Fleetham, Kelly

2018-02-01

A field project was conducted to observe and measure smoke plumes from wildland fires in Alberta. This study used handheld inclinometer measurements and photos taken at lookout towers in the province. Observations of 222 plumes were collected from 21 lookout towers over a 6-year period from 2010 to 2015. Observers reported the equilibrium and maximum plume heights based on the plumes' final levelling heights and the maximum lofting heights, respectively. Observations were tabulated at the end of each year and matched to reported fires. Fire sizes at assessment times and forest fuel types were reported by the province. Fire weather conditions were obtained from the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS). Assessed fire sizes were adjusted to the appropriate size at plume observation time using elliptical fire-growth projections. Though a logical method to collect plume observations in principle, many unanticipated issues were uncovered as the project developed. Instrument limitations and environmental conditions presented challenges to the investigators, whereas human error and the subjectivity of observations affected data quality. Despite these problems, the data set showed that responses to fire behaviour conditions were consistent with the physical processes leading to plume rise. The Alberta smoke plume observation study data can be found on the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System datamart (Natural Resources Canada, 2018) at http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/datamart.

Forestry timber typing. Tanana demonstration project, Alaska ASVT. [Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrissey, L. A.; Ambrosia, V. G.

1982-01-01

The feasibility of using LANDSAT digital data in conjunction with topographic data to delineate commercial forests by stand size and crown closure in the Tanana River basin of Alaska was tested. A modified clustering approach using two LANDSAT dates to generate an initial forest type classification was then refined with topographic data. To further demonstrate the ability of remotely sensed data in a fire protection planning framework, the timber type data were subsequently integrated with terrain information to generate a fire hazard map of the study area. This map provides valuable assistance in initial attack planning, determining equipment accessibility, and fire growth modeling. The resulting data sets were incorporated into the Alaska Department of Natural Resources geographic information system for subsequent utilization.

Project Fire Model: Summary Progress Report - II, Period May 1, 1960 to April 30, 1962

Treesearch

W.L. Fons; H.B. Clements; E.R. Elliott; P.M. George

1962-01-01

This publication is included in a four part series. The other parts of the series can be found through the following links:Progress Report #1: http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/fons/psw_1960_fons001.pdf...

Archeological treasures protection based on early forest wildfire multi-band imaging detection system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouverneur, B.; Verstockt, S.; Pauwels, E.; Han, J.; de Zeeuw, P. M.; Vermeiren, J.

2012-10-01

Various visible and infrared cameras have been tested for the early detection of wildfires to protect archeological treasures. This analysis was possible thanks to the EU Firesense project (FP7-244088). Although visible cameras are low cost and give good results during daytime for smoke detection, they fall short under bad visibility conditions. In order to improve the fire detection probability and reduce the false alarms, several infrared bands are tested ranging from the NIR to the LWIR. The SWIR and the LWIR band are helpful to locate the fire through smoke if there is a direct Line Of Sight. The Emphasis is also put on the physical and the electro-optical system modeling for forest fire detection at short and longer ranges. The fusion in three bands (Visible, SWIR, LWIR) is discussed at the pixel level for image enhancement and for fire detection.

Variability of fire behavior, fire effects, and emissions in Scotch pine forests of central Siberia

Treesearch

D. J. McRae; Susan Conard; G. A. Ivanova; A. I. Sukhinin; Steve Baker; Y. N. Samsonov; T. W. Blake; V. A. Ivanov; A. V. Ivanov; T. V. Churkina; WeiMin Hao; K. P. Koutzenogij; Nataly Kovaleva

2006-01-01

As part of the Russian FIRE BEAR (Fire Effects in the Boreal Eurasia Region) Project, replicated 4-ha experimental fires were conducted on a dry Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris)/lichen (Cladonia sp.)/feathermoss (Pleurozeum schreberi) forest site in central Siberia. Observations from the initial seven surface fires (2000-2001) ignited under a range of burning...

Restoring surface fire stabilizes forest carbon under extreme fire weather in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Daniel J. Krofcheck; Matthew D. Hurteau; Robert M. Scheller; E. Louise Loudermilk

2017-01-01

Climate change in the western United States has increased the frequency of extreme fire weather events and is projected to increase the area burned by wildfire in the coming decades. This changing fire regime, coupled with increased high-severity fire risk from a legacy of fire exclusion, could destabilize forest carbon (C), decrease net ecosystem exchange (...

Forest Fire Advanced System Technology (FFAST): A Conceptual Design for Detection and Mapping

Treesearch

J. David Nichols; John R. Warren

1987-01-01

The Forest Fire Advanced System Technology (FFAST) project is developing a data system to provide near-real-time forest fire information to fire management at the fire Incident Command Post (ICP). The completed conceptual design defined an integrated forest fire detection and mapping system that is based upon technology available in the 1990's. System component...

Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A.D.; O'Neill, K. P.; Harden, J.W.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Yarie, J.

2003-01-01

In this study, the dynamics of soil thermal, hydrologic, and ecosystem processes were coupled to project how the carbon budgets of boreal forests will respond to changes in atmospheric CO2, climate, and fire disturbance. The ability of the model to simulate gross primary production and ecosystem respiration was verified for a mature black spruce ecosystem in Canada, the age-dependent pattern of the simulated vegetation carbon was verified with inventory data on aboveground growth of Alaskan black spruce forests, and the model was applied to a postfire chronosequence in interior Alaska. The comparison between the simulated soil temperature and field-based estimates during the growing season (May to September) of 1997 revealed that the model was able to accurately simulate monthly temperatures at 10 cm (R > 0.93) for control and burned stands of the fire chronosequence. Similarly, the simulated and field-based estimates of soil respiration for control and burned stands were correlated (R = 0.84 and 0.74 for control and burned stands, respectively). The simulated and observed decadal to century-scale dynamics of soil temperature and carbon dynamics, which are represented by mean monthly values of these variables during the growing season, were correlated among stands (R = 0.93 and 0.71 for soil temperature at 20- and 10-cm depths, R = 0.95 and 0.91 for soil respiration and soil carbon, respectively). Sensitivity analyses indicate that along with differences in fire and climate history a number of other factors influence the response of carbon dynamics to fire disturbance. These factors include nitrogen fixation, the growth of moss, changes in the depth of the organic layer, soil drainage, and fire severity.

Changes in Carbon Emissions in Colombian Savannas Derived From Recent Land use and Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etter, A.; Sarmiento, A.

2007-12-01

The global contribution of carbon emissions from land use dynamics and change to the global carbon (C) cycle is still uncertain, a major concern in global change modeling. Carbon emission from fires in the tropics is significant and represents 9% of the net primary production, and 50% of worldwide C emissions from fires are attributable to savanna fires. Such emissions may vary significantly due to differences in ecosystem types. Most savanna areas are devoted to grazing land uses making methane emissions also important in savanna ecosystems. Land use change driven by intensification of grazing and cropping has become a major factor affecting C emission dynamics from savanna regions. Colombia has some 17 MHa of mesic savannas which have been historically burned. Due to changes in market demands and improved accessibility during the last 20 years, important areas of savannas changed land use from predominantly extensive grazing to crops and intensive grazing systems. This research models and evaluates the impacts of such land use changes on the spatial and temporal burning patterns and C emissions in the Orinoco savannas of Colombia. We address the effects of land use change patterns using remote sensing data from MODIS and Landsat, ecosystem mapping products, and spatial GIS analysis. First we map the expansion of the agricultural frontier from the 1980s-2000s. We then model the changes in land use from the 1980s using a statistical modeling approach to analyze and quantify the impact of accessibility, ecosystem type and land tenure. We calculate the effects on C emissions from fire regimes and other sources of C based on patterns and extent of burned areas in the 2000s for different savanna ecosystem types and land uses. In the Llanos the fire regime exhibits a marked seasonal variability with most fire events occurring during the dry season between December-March. Our analysis shows that fire frequencies vary consistently between 0.6 and 2.8 fires.yr-1 per 2,500 Ha among the different savanna ecosystem types. Highest frequencies and largest burned areas occur in the less accessible well-drained savannas of the southern part of the region. The analysis also reveals a close relationship between land tenure and fire regimes, with highest frequencies in Indigenous Reserves, followed by private land ranches and National Parks, indicating that most fires are human induced. By 2000 more than 500k hectares of natural savannas were transformed to sown pastures (Brachiaria spp.), and some 100k hectares were planted with oil palm and irrigated rice. Such changes have taken place in more accessible areas and slightly better soils. In areas subject to land use change and intensification a significant reduction in fire frequency can be observed. Because such land use changes have been occurring in savanna types with better soils and higher aerial biomass values, the average effect on reduction of C-emissions is some 30 to 50% larger than the effect on fire area reduction. Our results indicate a reduction of fire frequencies greater than 80% in areas where savannas were replaced by introduced Brachiaria pastures. However the reduction in C emissions from fire reduction in these pastures is exceeded by the parallel emissions from the increase in the cattle stocking rates with a net effect of an additional emission of 0.5 Gt.CO2 equivalents. We make preliminary projections of future emission trends based on the land use change model, and we discuss the likely effects of future sources and sinks of C expected from the increase of irrigated rice crops and from projected oil palm and timber plantations.

LANDFIRE - A national vegetation/fuels data base for use in fuels treatment, restoration, and suppression planning

Treesearch

Kevin C. Ryan; Tonja S. Opperman

2013-01-01

LANDFIRE is the working name given to the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project (http://www.landfire.gov). The project was initiated in response to mega-fires and the need for managers to have consistent, wall-to-wall (i.e., all wildlands regardless of agency/ownership), geospatial data, on vegetation, fuels, and terrain to support use of fire...

A NASA-NOAA Update on Global Fire Monitoring Capabilities for Studying Fire-Climate Interactions: Focus on Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutman, G.; Csiszar, I.

2012-04-01

The global, long-term effects of fires are not well understood and we are learning more every year about its global impacts and potential feedbacks to climate change. The frequency, intensity, severity, and emissions of fires may be changing as a result of climate warming as has been manifested by the observations in northern Eurasia. The climate-fire interaction may produce important societal and environmental impacts in the long run. NASA and NOAA have been developing long-term fire datasets and improving systems to monitor active fires, study fire severity, fire growth, emissions into the atmosphere, and fire effects on carbon stocks. Almost every year there are regions in the world that experience particularly severe fires. For example, less than two years ago the European part of Russia was the focus of attention due to the anomalous heat and dry wave with record high temperatures that caused wildfires rage for weeks and that led to thousands of deaths. The fires also have spread to agricultural land and damaged crops, causing sharp increases of global wheat commodity prices. Remote sensing observations are widely used to monitor fire occurrence, fire spread; smoke dispersion, and atmospheric pollutant levels. In the context of climate warming and acute interest to large-scale emissions from various land-cover disturbances studying spatial-temporal dynamics of forest fire activity is critical. NASA supports several activities related to fires and the Earth system. These include GOFC-GOLD Fire Project Office at University of Maryland and the Rapid Response System for global fire monitoring. NASA has funded many research projects on biomass burning, which cover various geographic regions of the world and analyze impacts of fires on atmospheric carbon in support of REDD initiative, as well as on atmospheric pollution with smoke. Monitoring active fires, studying their severity and burned areas, and estimating fire-induced atmospheric emissions has been the subject of several research projects in the NASA LCLUC program over the globe, and, in particular, in Northern Eurasia. As an operational agency, NOAA puts global fire monitoring as a priority and supports related GCOS, CEOS and GOFC-GOLD objectives. NOAA developed an operational quasi-global fire monitoring system using geostationary satellites that provides coverage over parts of Northern Eurasia. Fire products from the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite) sensor on the NPP (NPOESS Preparatory Project) satellite, launched in October 2011, and on subsequent JPSS satellites will ensure high quality global fire monitoring and will extent the AVHRR- and MODIS-based fire data record over Northern Eurasia. This overview presents an update of NASA's and NOAA's fire monitoring capability and scientific achievements on fire-climate interactions. We will illustrate how combination of coarse spatial resolution polar orbiting satellite observations are combined with moderate spatial resolution observations to better monitor the location of fires and burned areas. While coarse resolution data have been more or less easily available, the utility of moderate resolution Landsat data has increased tremendously during the past couple of years once the data became freely available. Data fusion from polar orbiting and geostationary satellites will be discussed.

Chapter 2 - An overview of the LANDFIRE Prototype Project

Treesearch

Matthew G. Rollins; Robert E. Keane; Zhiliang Zhu; James P. Menakis

2006-01-01

This chapter describes the background and design of the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, which was a sub-regional, proof-of-concept effort designed to develop methods and applications for providing the high-resolution data (30-m pixel) needed to support wildland fire management and to implement the...

Importance of vegetation distribution for future carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, A.; Xia, J.; Arneth, A.; Luo, Y.; Smith, B.

2015-12-01

Projections of future terrestrial carbon uptake vary greatly between simulations. Net primary production (NPP), wild fires, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts) and soil decomposition constitute the main processes governing the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate. While primary production and soil respiration are relatively well studied and implemented in all global ecosystem models used to project the future land sink of CO2, vegetation dynamics are less studied and not always represented in global models. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality and the associated turnover and proven skill in predicting vegetation distribution and succession. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing at year 2085. We exchanged carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations and investigate the changes predicted by the emulator. This method allowed us to partition the entire ensemble carbon uptake uncertainty into individual processes. We found that NPP, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33% respectively of uncertainties in modeled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation dynamics was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by shifts in vegetation distribution, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

Heat and moisture fluxes within a nighttime maritime stratus cloud during CASP II

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gultepe, I.; Issac, G.

Stratus clouds in the lower part of the atmosphere over the ocean or land can play an important role in boundary layer processes and in climate change. Physical, dynamical, and radiative processes within marine stratus clouds on both cloud and regional scale are studied for the first time during the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) (Albrecht et al., 1988). These clouds can effect the nowcasting, pollution transfer, and radiative processes (Nicholls and Leighton, 1986). Similar to the FIRE stratus project, the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP) II field project was planned to obtain a bettermore » understanding of cloud physical, dynamical, radiative characteristics, and mesoscale structure of Canadian east coast storms. Here the dynamical and microphysical data, and a radiative transfer model are used to better understand a developing nighttime stratus cloud over the ocean during CASP II which took place over Atlantic Canada. Observations collected by the Convair aircraft of the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada during the CASP II field project on February 6, 1991 are presented.« less

FTM-West : fuel treatment market model for U.S. West

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Andrew Kramp; Henry Spelter; Ken Skog; Dennis Dykstra

2006-01-01

This paper presents FTM–West, a partial market equilibrium model designed to project future wood market impacts of significantly expanded fuel treatment programs that could remove trees to reduce fire hazard on forestlands in the U.S. West. FTM–West was designed to account for structural complexities in marketing and utilization that arise from unconventional size...

A probabilistic approach to modeling erosion for spatially-varied conditions

Treesearch

William J. Elliot; Peter R. Robichaud; C. D. Pannkuk

2001-01-01

In the years following a major forest disturbance, such as fire, the erosion rate is greatly influenced by variability in weather, in soil properties, and in spatial distribution. This paper presents a method to incorporate these variabilities into the erosion rate predicted by the Water Erosion Prediction Project model. It appears that it is not necessary to describe...

Integrating pH, substrate, and plant regrowth effects on soil nitrogen cycling after fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanan, E. J.; Schimel, J.; Tague, C.; D'Antonio, C. M.

2014-12-01

Mediterranean-type ecosystems are structured by fire. In California chaparral, fires uncouple N production and consumption by enhancing nitrification and reducing plant uptake. NO3- that accumulates after fire is vulnerable to leaching. However, the extent to which fires decouple N fluxes can vary spatially and with timing of fire, and the specific mechanisms controlling N metabolism in recovering chaparral are not well understood. We combined empirical analysis and modeling in two chaparral watersheds to better understand how these systems recover from fire, and to explore their sensitivity to changing climate and fire regimes. To evaluate how pH, charcoal, and NH4+ supply influence N cycling, we measured mineralization and nitrification rates in chaparral soils that burned 1, 4, 20 and 40 years prior to sampling. We then experimentally adjusted pH, charcoal, and NH4+ concentrations for all soils in a factorial design, and incubated them for 8 weeks. Each week, we measured respiration, exchangeable NH4+ and NO3- content, nitrification potential, microbial biomass, and pH. Then to project the effects of altered precipitation patterns and fire timing on nitrogen dynamics and recovery, we used the hydro-biogeochemical model RHESSys. Fires were imposed at the beginning and end of the growing season under various climates. NO3- production was highest in soils collected from the most recently burned sites. Also, NO3- concentrations increased over the course of incubation in soils from all sites, especially at high pH, and with NH4+ addition. Charcoal slightly augmented the effects of elevated pH and NH4+ on NO3- production iduring the early stages of incubation in 1 and 4-year old sites, while it slightly dampened their effects by week 8. However, in 20 and 40-year old sites, charcoal had no effect. Overall, nitrification was most powerfully constrained by NH4+ supply. However, increases in pH that occur after fire may enhance nitrification rates when substrate is available. Also, charcoal might enhance N cycling immediately after fire, perhaps by supplying C to microbes, but impacts are short-lived. Modeling results suggest that soil acidity and rapid plant recovery reduce leaching. However, during drought and temperature extremes nutrients pools recover more slowly when fires occur prior to the hot, dry summer.

Project FIRE Flight Investigation Reentry Environment- Winds of Change

NASA Image and Video Library

1962-11-21

As part of the project FIRE study, technicians ready materials to be subjected to high temperatures that will simulate the effects of re-entry heating. Tests of various space capsule materials for Project FIRE were conducted. Photographed in the 9 X 6 Foot Thermal Structures Tunnel. Photograph published in Winds of Change, 75th Anniversary NASA publication, by James Schultz (page 78). Photograph also published in Engineer in Charge: A History of the Langley Aeronautical Laboratory, 1917-1958 by James R. Hansen (page 476). Also Published in the book " A Century at Langley" by Joseph Chambers. Pg. 92

Spatio-temporal evolution of forest fires in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Marj; Pereira, Mário G.; Parente, Joana

2017-04-01

A key issue in fire management is the ability to explore and try to predict where and when fires are more likely to occur. This information can be useful to understand the triggering factors of ignitions and for planning strategies to reduce forest fires, to manage the sources of ignition and to identify areas and frame period at risk. Therefore, producing maps displaying forest fires location and their occurrence in time can be of great help for accurately forecasting these hazardous events. In a fire prone country as Portugal, where thousands of events occurs each year, it is involved to drive information about fires over densities and recurrences just by looking at the original arrangement of the mapped ignition points or burnt areas. In this respect, statistical methods originally developed for spatio-temporal stochastic point processes can be employed to find a structure within these large datasets. In the present study, the authors propose an approach to analyze and visualize the evolution in space and in time of forest fires occurred in Portugal during a long frame period (1990 - 2013). Data came from the Portuguese mapped burnt areas official geodatabase (by the Institute for the Conservation of Nature and Forests), which is the result of interpreted satellite measurements. The following statistical analyses were performed: the geographically-weighted summary statistics, to analyze the local variability of the average burned area; the space-time Kernel density, to elaborate smoothed density surfaces representing over densities of fires classed by size and on North vs South region. Finally, we emploied the volume rendering thecnique to visualize the spatio-temporal evolution of these events into a unique map: this representation allows visually inspecting areas and time-step more affected from a high aggregation of forest fires. It results that during the whole investigated period over densities are mainly located in the northern regions, while in the southern areas spread hot-spot are spatially randomly distributed and temporally more concentrated in the frame 2000 - 2004. To conclude, this study let us to identify a multitude of clustering space-time features of forest fires in Portugal, which can be useful for a better planning of educational activities and prevention campaigns as well as for a better allocation of monitoring systems and firefighting. References: Tonini M., Pereira M. G., Parente J. (2016) - Evolution of forest fires in Portugal: from spatio-temporal point events to smoothed density maps. Natural Hazard, doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2637-x Lu B., Harris P., Charlton M., Brunsdon C. (2014) - The GWmodel R package: further topics for exploring spatial heterogeneity using geographically weighted models. Geo-spatial Information Science, Vol. 17: 85-101 Rowlingson B., Diggle P., Bivand M.R. (2012) - Splancs: spatial point pattern analysis code in S-Plus. Computers and Geosciences, Vol. 19: 627-655 Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; (ii) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF for providing the fire.

INTEGRATED AIR POLLUTION CONTROL SYSTEM, VERSION 4.0 - VOLUME 1: USER'S GUIDE

EPA Science Inventory

The Integrated Air Pollution Control System (IAPCS) was developed for the U.S. EPA's Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory to estimate costs and performance for emission control systems applied to coal-fired utility boilers. The model can project a material balance, and ...

Fire frequency drives decadal changes in soil carbon and nitrogen and ecosystem productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellegrini, Adam F. A.; Ahlström, Anders; Hobbie, Sarah E.; Reich, Peter B.; Nieradzik, Lars P.; Staver, A. Carla; Scharenbroch, Bryant C.; Jumpponen, Ari; Anderegg, William R. L.; Randerson, James T.; Jackson, Robert B.

2018-01-01

Fire frequency is changing globally and is projected to affect the global carbon cycle and climate. However, uncertainty about how ecosystems respond to decadal changes in fire frequency makes it difficult to predict the effects of altered fire regimes on the carbon cycle; for instance, we do not fully understand the long-term effects of fire on soil carbon and nutrient storage, or whether fire-driven nutrient losses limit plant productivity. Here we analyse data from 48 sites in savanna grasslands, broadleaf forests and needleleaf forests spanning up to 65 years, during which time the frequency of fires was altered at each site. We find that frequently burned plots experienced a decline in surface soil carbon and nitrogen that was non-saturating through time, having 36 per cent (±13 per cent) less carbon and 38 per cent (±16 per cent) less nitrogen after 64 years than plots that were protected from fire. Fire-driven carbon and nitrogen losses were substantial in savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests, but not in temperate and boreal needleleaf forests. We also observe comparable soil carbon and nitrogen losses in an independent field dataset and in dynamic model simulations of global vegetation. The model study predicts that the long-term losses of soil nitrogen that result from more frequent burning may in turn decrease the carbon that is sequestered by net primary productivity by about 20 per cent of the total carbon that is emitted from burning biomass over the same period. Furthermore, we estimate that the effects of changes in fire frequency on ecosystem carbon storage may be 30 per cent too low if they do not include multidecadal changes in soil carbon, especially in drier savanna grasslands. Future changes in fire frequency may shift ecosystem carbon storage by changing soil carbon pools and nitrogen limitations on plant growth, altering the carbon sink capacity of frequently burning savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests.

Fire frequency drives decadal changes in soil carbon and nitrogen and ecosystem productivity.

PubMed

Pellegrini, Adam F A; Ahlström, Anders; Hobbie, Sarah E; Reich, Peter B; Nieradzik, Lars P; Staver, A Carla; Scharenbroch, Bryant C; Jumpponen, Ari; Anderegg, William R L; Randerson, James T; Jackson, Robert B

2018-01-11

Fire frequency is changing globally and is projected to affect the global carbon cycle and climate. However, uncertainty about how ecosystems respond to decadal changes in fire frequency makes it difficult to predict the effects of altered fire regimes on the carbon cycle; for instance, we do not fully understand the long-term effects of fire on soil carbon and nutrient storage, or whether fire-driven nutrient losses limit plant productivity. Here we analyse data from 48 sites in savanna grasslands, broadleaf forests and needleleaf forests spanning up to 65 years, during which time the frequency of fires was altered at each site. We find that frequently burned plots experienced a decline in surface soil carbon and nitrogen that was non-saturating through time, having 36 per cent (±13 per cent) less carbon and 38 per cent (±16 per cent) less nitrogen after 64 years than plots that were protected from fire. Fire-driven carbon and nitrogen losses were substantial in savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests, but not in temperate and boreal needleleaf forests. We also observe comparable soil carbon and nitrogen losses in an independent field dataset and in dynamic model simulations of global vegetation. The model study predicts that the long-term losses of soil nitrogen that result from more frequent burning may in turn decrease the carbon that is sequestered by net primary productivity by about 20 per cent of the total carbon that is emitted from burning biomass over the same period. Furthermore, we estimate that the effects of changes in fire frequency on ecosystem carbon storage may be 30 per cent too low if they do not include multidecadal changes in soil carbon, especially in drier savanna grasslands. Future changes in fire frequency may shift ecosystem carbon storage by changing soil carbon pools and nitrogen limitations on plant growth, altering the carbon sink capacity of frequently burning savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests.

Fight Fire with These Safety Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Lisa M.

1998-01-01

Provides expert guidelines on ways to keep schools and children safe from building fires, such as maintenance of exits for easy egress in emergencies, maintaining fire-protection systems, and utilizing evacuation planning and drilling. Highlights fire-safety ideas as part of school-building and renovation projects. (GR)

Fire and aquatic ecosystems of the western USA: Current knowledge and key questions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bisson, P.A.; Rieman, B.; Luce, C.; Hessburg, Paul F.; Lee, D.; Kershner, J.; Reeves, G.H.; Gresswell, Robert E.

2003-01-01

Understanding of the effects of wildland fire and fire management on aquatic and riparian ecosystems is an evolving field, with many questions still to be resolved. Limitations of current knowledge, and the certainty that fire management will continue, underscore the need to summarize available information. Integrating fire and fuels management with aquatic ecosystem conservation begins with recognizing that terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are linked and dynamic, and that fire can play a critical role in maintaining aquatic ecological diversity. To protect aquatic ecosystems we argue that it will be important to: (1) accommodate fire-related and other ecological processes that maintain aquatic habitats and biodiversity, and not simply control fires or fuels; (2) prioritize projects according to risks and opportunities for fire control and the protection of aquatic ecosystems; and (3) develop new consistency in the management and regulatory process. Ultimately, all natural resource management is uncertain; the role of science is to apply experimental design and hypothesis testing to management applications that affect fire and aquatic ecosystems. Policy-makers and the public will benefit from an expanded appreciation of fire ecology that enables them to implement watershed management projects as experiments with hypothesized outcomes, adequate controls, and replication.

Land cover change interacts with drought severity to change fire regimes in Western Amazonia.

PubMed

Gutiérrez-Vélez, Víctor H; Uriarte, María; DeFries, Ruth; Pinedo-Vásquez, Miguel; Fernandes, Katia; Ceccato, Pietro; Baethgen, Walter; Padoch, Christine

Fire is becoming a pervasive driver of environmental change in Amazonia and is expected to intensify, given projected reductions in precipitation and forest cover. Understanding of the influence of post-deforestation land cover change on fires in Amazonia is limited, even though fires in cleared lands constitute a threat for ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. We used MODIS satellite data to map burned areas annually between 2001 and 2010. We then combined these maps with land cover and climate information to understand the influence of land cover change in cleared lands and dry-season severity on fire occurrence and spread in a focus area in the Peruvian Amazon. Fire occurrence, quantified as the probability of burning of individual 232-m spatial resolution MODIS pixels, was modeled as a function of the area of land cover types within each pixel, drought severity, and distance to roads. Fire spread, quantified as the number of pixels burned in 3 × 3 pixel windows around each focal burned pixel, was modeled as a function of land cover configuration and area, dry-season severity, and distance to roads. We found that vegetation regrowth and oil palm expansion are significantly correlated with fire occurrence, but that the magnitude and sign of the correlation depend on drought severity, successional stage of regrowing vegetation, and oil palm age. Burning probability increased with the area of nondegraded pastures, fallow, and young oil palm and decreased with larger extents of degraded pastures, secondary forests, and adult oil palm plantations. Drought severity had the strongest influence on fire occurrence, overriding the effectiveness of secondary forests, but not of adult plantations, to reduce fire occurrence in severely dry years. Overall, irregular and scattered land cover patches reduced fire spread but irregular and dispersed fallows and secondary forests increased fire spread during dry years. Results underscore the importance of land cover management for reducing fire proliferation in this landscape. Incentives for promoting natural regeneration and perennial crops in cleared lands might help to reduce fire risk if those areas are protected against burning in early stages of development and during severely dry years.

Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - Comparison of the models and their utility for the fire brigades.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenzel, S.; Baumann-Stanzer, K.

2009-04-01

Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - Comparison of the models and their utility for the fire brigades. Sirma Stenzel, Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer In the case of accidental release of hazardous gases in the atmosphere, the emergency responders need a reliable and fast tool to assess the possible consequences and apply the optimal countermeasures. For hazard prediction and simulation of the hazard zones a number of air dispersion models are available. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for display the results, they are easy to use and can operate fast and effective during stress situations. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios"), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. There are also possibilities for model direct coupling to automatic meteorological stations, in order to avoid uncertainties in the model output due to insufficient or incorrect meteorological data. Another key problem in coping with accidental toxic release is the relative width spectrum of regulations and values, like IDLH, ERPG, AEGL, MAK etc. and the different criteria for their application. Since the particulate emergency responders and organizations require for their purposes unequal regulations and values, it is quite difficult to predict the individual hazard areas. There are a quite number of research studies and investigations coping with the problem, anyway the end decision is up to the authorities. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Vienna fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and Synex Ries & Greßlehner GmbH. RETOMOD was funded by the KIRAS safety research program at the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (www.kiras.at). One of the main tasks of this project was 1. Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input for modeling of the hazard areas (human exposure) during the accidental toxic releases. 2. Comparison of several model packages (based on reference scenarios) in order to estimate the utility for the fire brigades. This presentation introduces the project models used and presents the results of task 2. The results of task 1 are presented by Baumann-Stanzer and Stenzel in this session. For the purpose of this study the following models were tested and compared: ALOHA (Areal Location of Hazardous atmosphere, EPA), MEMPLEX (Keudel av-Technik GmbH), Breeze (Trinity Consulting), SAFER System, SAM (Engineering office Lohmeyer), COMPAS. A set of reference scenarios for Chlorine, Ammoniac, Butane and Petrol were proceed in order to reliably predict and estimate the human exposure during the event. The models simulated the accidental release from the mentioned above gases and estimates the potential toxic areas. Since the inputs requirement differ from model to model, and the outputs are based on different criteria for toxic areas and exposure, a high degree of caution in the interpretation of the model results is needed.

Fire Resistance of Geopolymer Concretes

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-21

1 Project report – Grant FA23860814096, "Fire resistance of geopolymer concretes" – J. Provis, University of Melbourne 1. Background and...experimental program This project provided funding for us to carry out fire testing of geopolymer concrete specimens and associated laboratory...testing. The focus of this report will be the outcomes of the series of pilot-scale (4’×4’×6”) tests on geopolymer concrete panels, which were conducted

Development and fire trends in oak woodlands of the northwestern Sierra Nevada foothills

Treesearch

James G. Spero

2002-01-01

Human development appears to present a larger threat to the long-term persistence of California's hardwood rangelands than fire in terms of likely ecological significance. This paper describes of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP) projections of human development and fire occurrence and...

The Fire Effects Information System - serving managers since before the Yellowstone fires

Treesearch

Jane Kapler Smith; Janet L. Fryer; Kristin Zouhar

2009-01-01

This presentation will describe the current status of the Fire Effects Information System (FEIS) and explore lessons learned from this 23-yearold project about the application of science to fire management issues. FEIS contains literature reviews covering biology and fire ecology for approximately 1,100 species in North America: plants and animals, native and nonnative...

Fire scars and tree vigor following prescribed fires in Missouri Ozark upland forests

Treesearch

Aaron P. Stevenson; Rose-Marie Muzika; Richard P. Guyette

2008-01-01

The goal of our project was to examine basal fire scars caused by prescribed fires and tree vigor in upland forests of the Missouri Ozarks. Fire scar data were collected in 100 plots from black oak (Quercus velutina Lam.), scarlet oak (Q. coccinea Muench.), Shumard oak (Q. shumardii Buckl.), post oak (Q...

Fire Prevention in California's Riverside County Headstart Project: An Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Folkman, William S.; Taylor, Jean

Results of evaluation are reported for a safety program devised by Head Start teachers and California Division of Forestry personnel to teach fire prevention education to Head Start children. Chapters describe the place of fire prevention in Head Start and causes of fire starting behavior in children. The Head Start Fire Prevention Kit is also…

Mapping severe fire potential across the contiguous United States

Treesearch

Brett H. Davis

2016-01-01

The Fire Severity Mapping System (FIRESEV) project is an effort to provide critical information and tools to fire managers that enhance their ability to assess potential ecological effects of wildland fire. A major component of FIRESEV is the development of a Severe Fire Potential Map (SFPM), a geographic dataset covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) that...

Forest dynamics in Oregon landscapes: Evaluation and application of an individual-based model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; McKane, R.B.; Burdick, C.A.

2007-01-01

The FORCLIM model of forest dynamics was tested against field survey data for its ability to simulate basal area and composition of old forests across broad climatic gradients in western Oregon, USA. The model was also tested for its ability to capture successional trends in ecoregions of the west Cascade Range. It was then applied to simulate present and future (1990-2050) forest landscape dynamics of a watershed in the west Cascades. Various regimes of climate change and harvesting in the watershed were considered in the landscape application. The model was able to capture much of the variation in forest basal area and composition in western Oregon even though temperature and precipitation were the only inputs that were varied among simulated sites. The measured decline in total basal area from tall coastal forests eastward to interior steppe was matched by simulations. Changes in simulated forest dominants also approximated those in the actual data. Simulated abundances of a few minor species did not match actual abundances, however. Subsequent projections of climate change and harvest effects in a west Cascades landscape indicated no change in forest dominance as of 2050. Yet, climate-driven shifts in the distributions of some species were projected. The simulation of both stand-replacing and partial-stand disturbances across western Oregon improved agreement between simulated and actual data. Simulations with fire as an agent of partial disturbance suggested that frequent fires of low severity can alter forest composition and structure as much or more than severe fires at historic frequencies. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate vs. carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, M. Martin; Prentice, I. C.; Harrison, S. P.

2014-02-01

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness; CO2 availability, in turn, constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence CO2 availability, the links between atmospheric CO2 and biomass burning are not well known. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial-interglacial changes in biomass burning to CO2 increase, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate anomalies - that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate - from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes in biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed biases in contemporary biome-average values. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux was 70 to 80% lower at the LGM than in PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) however yielded unrealistic results, with global and Northern Hemisphere biomass burning fluxes greater than in the pre-industrial climate. Using the PI CO2 concentration increased the modelled LGM biomass burning fluxes for all climate models and latitudinal bands to between four and ten times their values under LGM CO2 concentration. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on productivity and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

Negligent and intentional fires in Portugal: the role of human and biophysical drivers on the temporal distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário; Amraoui, Malik; Tedim, Fantina

2017-04-01

Portugal is the European country with higher number of fires (NF) and burnt area (BA) per unit of land area. The annual number of fires for which the cause of fire is known is not constant and relatively small (typically less than 50% of annual number of records). Nevertheless, the analysis of the fire causes reveals that the vast majority (99%) of the fires in Portugal are of human origin and only a small fraction are of natural origin (1% caused by lightning). The study period will be the recent years of 2012 - 2014, when fire recording procedures are more reliable and the cause of ignition was assessed for more than 50% (19376) of the fires. The fires with approximately seventy different causes of fire defined/recognized by the Portuguese Forest Service (ICNF) were grouped into negligent, intentional and natural fires. For this study the authors proposes the use of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics level II, which divides Portugal in 5 basic economic regions, namely Norte, Centro, Área Metropolitana de Lisboa, Alentejo, and Algarve. Most of the fires (54%) occur in the so-called critical period defined between July and September, but high wildfire activity may also occur in few periods of the remaining months (especially in February and March). The intentional fires represent 40% of total NF but accounts for 53% of total BA during the study period. The temporal distribution are described and interpreted in terms of the climate, fire weather, land use land cover (LULC), distance to communication routes (roads and railways) and topographic variables (altitude, slope) using statistical analysis and GIS techniques. Results points to: a) higher number of negligent than intentional fires; b) higher BA on critical period in years 2012 and 2013; c) decrease in time and decrease from critical period to non-critical period of the number of fires, in all regions; and d) the dominant role of fire weather in the observed temporal patterns. We strongly believe that the findings of this study contribute to a better fire prevention, firefighting and crisis management. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; (ii) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF for providing the fire data.

Population and Individual Elephant Response to a Catastrophic Fire in Pilanesberg National Park

PubMed Central

Woolley, Leigh-Ann; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Woods, Rami J.; Janse van Rensburg, Samantha; Mackey, Robin L.; Page, Bruce; Slotow, Rob

2008-01-01

In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality) and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress) levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability), did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern seen in predator-free large ungulate populations, i.e. mainly involving juveniles. Fire therefore functions in a similar manner to other environmental catastrophes and may be a natural mechanism contributing to population limitation. Welfare concerns of arson fires, burning during “hot-fire” conditions and the conservation implications of fire suppression (i.e. removal of a potential contributing factor to natural population regulation) should be integrated into fire management strategies for conservation areas. PMID:18797503

Wyoming: Jackson Hole

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2014-05-15

... Park and Bridger-Teton National Forest Interagency Fire Management Office announced a high risk for the area. The Green Knoll blaze is ... July 27, 2001 - Green Knoll forest fire. project:  MISR category:  gallery Fires date:  ...

FIRE Data and Information

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2017-12-22

... The First ISCCP Regional Experiment is a series of field missions which have collected cirrus and marine stratocumulus ... Home Page (tar file) FIRE I - Extended Time Observations Home Page (tar file) FIRE Project Home Page for ...

The Role of Driving Factors in Historical and Projected Carbon Dynamics in Wetland Ecosystems of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, Z.; Helene, G.; He, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A. D.; Bennett, A.; Breen, A. L.; Clein, J.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Johnson, K. D.; Kurkowski, T. A.; Pastick, N. J.; Rupp, S. T.; Wylie, B. K.; Zhu, Z.

2017-12-01

Wetlands are important terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska. It is important to understand and assess their role in the regional carbon dynamics in response to historical and projected environmental conditions. A coupled modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used to assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and fire regime on the historical and future carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. Simulations were conducted for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). These simulations estimate that the total carbon (C) storage in wetland ecosystems of Alaska is 5556 Tg C in 2009, with 89% of the C stored in soils. An estimated 175 Tg C was lost during the historical period, which is attributed to greater C lost from the Northwest Boreal LCC than C gained from the other three LCCs. The simulations for the projection period were conducted for six different scenarios driven by climate forcings from two different climate models for each of three CO2 emission scenarios. The mean total carbon storage increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 Tg C/yr to 4.42 Tg C/yr. Across the four LCCs, the largest relative C storage increase occurred in the Arctic and North Pacific LCCs. These increases were primarily driven by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than increases in heterotrophic respiration and fire emissions. Our analysis further indicates that NPP increase was primarily driven by CO2 fertilization ( 5% per 100 ppmv increase) as well as by increases in air temperature ( 1% per ° increase). Increases air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in wetlands biogenic CH4 emissions among the simulations ( 15% per ° increase). The combined effects of ecosystem CO2 sequestration and increased CH4 emissions result in a weaker global warming potential (GWP) for wetlands ecosystems in Alaska. Overall, this study estimates that wetland ecosystems of Alaska will transition into a C sink with less contribution to the global warming enhancement.

Technology Development for Fire Safety in Exploration Spacecraft and Habitats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David L.

2007-01-01

Fire during an exploration mission far from Earth is a particularly critical risk for exploration vehicles and habitats. The Fire Prevention, Detection, and Suppression (FPDS) project is part of the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) and has the goal to enhance crew health and safety on exploration missions by reducing the likelihood of a fire, or, if one does occur, minimizing the risk to the mission, crew, or system. Within the past year, the FPDS project has been formalized within the ETDP structure and has seen significant progress on its tasks in fire prevention, detection, and suppression. As requirements for Constellation vehicles and, specifically, the CEV have developed, the need for the FPDS technologies has become more apparent and we continue to make strides to infuse them into the Constellation architecture. This paper describes the current structure of the project within the ETDP and summarizes the significant programmatic activities. Major technical accomplishments are identified as are activities planned for FY07.

Technology Development for Fire Safety in Exploration Spacecraft and Habitats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David L.

2006-01-01

Fire during an exploration mission far from Earth is a particularly critical risk for exploration vehicles and habitats. The Fire Prevention, Detection, and Suppression (FPDS) project is part of the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) and has the goal to enhance crew health and safety on exploration missions by reducing the likelihood of a fire, or, if one does occur, minimizing the risk to the mission, crew, or system. Within the past year, the FPDS project has been formalized within the ETDP structure and has seen significant progress on its tasks in fire prevention, detection, and suppression. As requirements for Constellation vehicles and, specifically, the CEV have developed, the need for the FPDS technologies has become more apparent and we continue to make strides to infuse them into the Constellation architecture. This paper describes the current structure of the project within the ETDP and summarizes the significant programmatic activities. Major technical accomplishments are identified as are activities planned for FY07.

Simulating high spatial resolution high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forests for California Spotted Owl habitat climate change risk assessment and management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, A.; Westerling, A. L.; Jones, G.; Peery, M. Z.

2017-12-01

Sierra Nevada forests have experienced an increase in very large fires with significant areas of high burn severity, such as the Rim (2013) and King (2014) fires, that have impacted habitat of endangered species such as the California spotted owl. In order to support land manager forest management planning and risk assessment activities, we used historical wildfire histories from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project and gridded hydroclimate and land surface characteristics data to develope statistical models to simulate the frequency, location and extent of high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forest wildfires as functions of climate and land surface characteristics. We define high severity here as BA90 area: the area comprising patches with ninety percent or more basal area killed within a larger fire. We developed a system of statistical models to characterize the probability of large fire occurrence, the probability of significant BA90 area present given a large fire, and the total extent of BA90 area in a fire on a 1/16 degree lat/lon grid over the Sierra Nevada. Repeated draws from binomial and generalized pareto distributions using these probabilities generated a library of simulated histories of high severity fire for a range of near (50 yr) future climate and fuels management scenarios. Fuels management scenarios were provided by USFS Region 5. Simulated BA90 area was then downscaled to 30 m resolution using a statistical model we developed using Random Forest techniques to estimate the probability of adjacent 30m pixels burning with ninety percent basal kill as a function of fire size and vegetation and topographic features. The result is a library of simulated high resolution maps of BA90 burned areas for a range of climate and fuels management scenarios with which we estimated conditional probabilities of owl nesting sites being impacted by high severity wildfire.

Chapter 9 - Monitoring survival of fire-injured trees in Oregon and Washington (Project WC-F-08-03)

Treesearch

Robert A. Progar; Lisa Ganio; Lindsay Grayson; Sharon M. Hood

2018-01-01

Wild and prescribed fire injury to trees can produce mortality that is not immediately apparent, and environmental stress subsequent to a fire may also contribute to tree mortality in the years after a fire (Hood and Bentz 2007). In order to predict post-fire tree mortality from fire injury variables before tree mortality is clearly apparent, dozens of statistical...

Resistance of the boreal forest to high burn rates.

PubMed

Héon, Jessie; Arseneault, Dominique; Parisien, Marc-André

2014-09-23

Boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks are strongly shaped by extensive wildfires. Coupling climate projections with records of area burned during the last 3 decades across the North American boreal zone suggests that area burned will increase by 30-500% by the end of the 21st century, with a cascading effect on ecosystem dynamics and on the boreal carbon balance. Fire size and the frequency of large-fire years are both expected to increase. However, how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future burn rates is poorly understood, mostly because of incomplete records of past fire overlaps. Here, we reconstruct the length of overlapping fires along a 190-km-long transect during the last 200 y in one of the most fire-prone boreal regions of North America to document how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future fire recurrence. We provide direct field evidence that extreme burn rates can be sustained by a few occasional droughts triggering immense fires. However, we also show that the most fire-prone areas of the North American boreal forest are resistant to high burn rates because of overabundant young forest stands, thereby creating a fuel-mediated negative feedback on fire activity. These findings will help refine projections of fire effect on boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks.

Resistance of the boreal forest to high burn rates

PubMed Central

Héon, Jessie; Arseneault, Dominique; Parisien, Marc-André

2014-01-01

Boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks are strongly shaped by extensive wildfires. Coupling climate projections with records of area burned during the last 3 decades across the North American boreal zone suggests that area burned will increase by 30–500% by the end of the 21st century, with a cascading effect on ecosystem dynamics and on the boreal carbon balance. Fire size and the frequency of large-fire years are both expected to increase. However, how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future burn rates is poorly understood, mostly because of incomplete records of past fire overlaps. Here, we reconstruct the length of overlapping fires along a 190-km-long transect during the last 200 y in one of the most fire-prone boreal regions of North America to document how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future fire recurrence. We provide direct field evidence that extreme burn rates can be sustained by a few occasional droughts triggering immense fires. However, we also show that the most fire-prone areas of the North American boreal forest are resistant to high burn rates because of overabundant young forest stands, thereby creating a fuel-mediated negative feedback on fire activity. These findings will help refine projections of fire effect on boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks. PMID:25201981

Forest-fire models

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

2013-01-01

For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, M. Martin; Prentice, I. C.; Harrison, S. P.

2014-11-01

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial-interglacial changes in biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies - that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate - from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was in the range of 1.0-1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

INTEGRATED AIR POLLUTION CONTROL SYSTEM VERSION 5.0 - VOLUME 2: TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION

EPA Science Inventory

The three volume report and two diskettes document the Integrated Air Pollution Control System (IAPCS), developed for the U.S. EPA to estimate costs and performance for emission control systems applied to coal-fired utility boilers. The model can project a material balance, an eq...

INTEGRATED AIR POLLUTION CONTROL SYSTEM VERSION 5.0 - VOLUME 3: PROGRAMMER'S MAINTENANCE MANUAL

EPA Science Inventory

The three volume report and two diskettes document the Integrated Air Pollution Control System (IAPCS), developed for the U.S. EPA to estimate costs and performance for emission control systems applied to coal-fired utility boilers. The model can project a material balance, an eq...

INTEGRATED AIR POLLUTION CONTROL SYSTEM VERSION 5.0 - VOLUME 1: USER'S GUIDE

EPA Science Inventory

The three volume report and two diskettes document the Integrated Air Pollution Control System (IAPCS), developed for the U.S. EPA to estimate costs and performance for emission control systems applied to coal-fired utility boilers. The model can project a material balance, an eq...

INTEGRATED AIR POLLUTION CONTROL SYSTEM, VERSION 4.0 - VOLUME 3: PROGRAMMER'S MAINTENACE MANUAL

EPA Science Inventory

The Integrated Air Pollution Control System (IAPCS) was developed for the U.S. EPA's Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory to estimate costs and performance for emission control systems applied to coal-fired utility boilers. The model can project a material balance, and ...

INTEGRATED AIR POLLUTION CONTROL SYSTEM, VERSION 4.0 - VOLUME 2: TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION MANUAL

EPA Science Inventory

The Integrated Air Pollution Control System (IAPCS) was developed for the U.S. EPA's Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory to estimate costs and performance for emission control systems applied to coal-fired utility boilers. The model can project a material balance, and ...

Interactions of the Cloudy Arctic Boundary Layer with Variable Surface Conditions and Large-Scale Circulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randell, David A.

2001-01-01

Our project included a variety of activities, ranging from model development to data manipulation and even participation in the SHEBA and FIRE field experiments. The following sections outline the work accomplished under these tasks. A collection of reprints is attached to this report.

Fire risk and air pollution assessment during the 2007 wildfire events in Greece using the COSMO-ART atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athanasopoulou, E.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Vogel, H.; Rieger, D.; Knote, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Vogel, B.; Karali, A.

2012-04-01

During 2007, Greece experienced an extreme summer and the worst natural hazard in its modern history. Soil dehydration, following a prolonged dry period in combination with hot temperatures and strong winds, yielded favorable conditions for the ignition and spread of wild fires that burnt approximately 200,000 ha of vegetated land (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009; Sifakis et al., 2011). The relationship between meteorology and fire potential can be provided by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is already found applicable in the fire activity of the Mediterranean region (Carvalho et al., 2008). However, lack of meteorological data or remote fire spots can be sources of uncertainties for fire risk estimation. In addition to the direct fire damage, these fires produced large quantities of gaseous air pollutants and particles (PM10) dispersed over the area of Greece. Indeed, PM10 concentration measurements showed two pollution episodes over Athens during late August and early September, 2007 (Liu et al., 2009). Nevertheless, these measurements neither show the large spatial extent of fire effects nor reveal its important role on atmospheric chemistry. In the current study, the application of the atmospheric model COSMO-ART is used to investigate the issues addressed above. COSMO-ART (Vogel et al. 2009) is a regional chemistry transport model (ART stands for Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) online-coupled to the COSMO regional numerical weather prediction and climate model (Baldauf et al. 2011). The current simulations are performed between August 15 and September 15 over Greece with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical extend up to 20 km. The initial and boundary meteorological conditions are derived from a coarser COSMO simulation performed by the German Weather Service. Fire emissions are retrieved from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (van der Werf et al., 2010). The anthropogenic emission database used is the TNO/MACC (Kuenen et al. 2011), while biogenic emissions are calculated online (Vogel et al. 1995). The FWI is calculated from air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation data obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service for several sites in proximity to the fire event areas. In parallel, these data serve as evaluation for the respective model predictions. The satisfactory comparison results enable the FWI calculation using the model data over the burnt areas, where observations are missing. The effect of these fire events on atmospheric chemistry is estimated by analyzing the predictions not only for the mainly affected primary species (carbon monoxide, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and elemental carbon), but also for the secondary pollutants (ozone, organic and nitrate aerosol). The competence of COSMO-ART mass predictions is evaluated by comparing PM10 outputs with published literature results. The weather conditions during the 2007 wildfire events have already been assessed as a typical summertime meteorological regime during the latter part of the century (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009). Therefore, the results presented here can be viewed as representative of a fire event likely to occur by then. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIMRUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010-265192.

Comparison of biomass burning inventories processed by GEOS-Chem and ACCESS2.0 with total column and satellite data in Australia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desservettaz, M.; Fisher, J. A.; Jones, N. B.; Bukosa, B.; Greenslade, J.; Luhar, A.; Woodhouse, M.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Velazco, V. A.

2016-12-01

Australia contributes approximately 6% of global biomass burning CO2 emissions, mostly from savanna type fires. This estimate comes from biomass burning inventories that use emission factors derived from field campaigns performed outside Australia. The relevance of these emission factors to the Australian environment has not previously been evaluated and therefore needs to be tested. Here we compare predictions from the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and the global chemistry-climate model ACCESS-UKCA run using different biomass burning inventories to total column measurements of CO, C2H6 and HCHO, in order to identify the most representative inventory for Australian fire emissions. The measurements come from the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) solar remote sensing Fourier transform spectrometers and satellite measurements from IASI and OMI over Australia. We evaluate three inventories: the Global Fire Emission Database version 4 - GFED4 (Giglio et al. 2013), the Fire Inventory from NCAR - FINN (Wiedinmyer et al. 2011), the Quick Fire Emission Database - QFED from NASA and the MACCity emission inventory (from the MACC/CityZEN EU projects; Angiola et al. 2010). From this evaluation we aim to give recommendations for the most appropriate inventory to use for different Australian environments. We also plan to examine any significant concentration variations arising from the differences between the two model setups.

Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003–2100

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Rupp, T.S.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.

2009-01-01

In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003–2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1) vegetation changes following a changing fire regime, and (2) changes in snow cover duration. We used a spatially explicit dynamic vegetation model (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) to simulate changes in successional dynamics associated with fire under the future climate scenarios, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate changes in snow cover. Changes in summer heating due to the changes in the forest stand age distributions under future fire regimes showed a slight cooling effect due to increases in summer albedo (mean across climates of −0.9 W m−2 decade−1). Over this same time period, decreases in snow cover (mean reduction in the snow season of 4.5 d decade−1) caused a reduction in albedo, and a heating effect (mean across climates of 4.3 W m−2 decade−1). Adding both the summer negative change in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire regimes to the positive changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in the length of the snow season resulted in a 3.4 W m−2 decade−1 increase in atmospheric heating. These findings highlight the importance of gaining a better understanding of the influences of changes in surface albedo on atmospheric heating due to both changes in the fire regime and changes in snow cover duration.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird.

PubMed

Pickens, Bradley A; Marcus, Jeffrey F; Carpenter, John P; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J; Collazo, Jaime A

2017-04-15

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Stay or Go?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kroll, Karen

2003-01-01

Discusses whether U.S. schools equipped with fire sprinklers and fire detection and intercom systems should be able to use a delayed evacuation policy when it comes to fire drills or actual fires. A controversial project in Minnesota is examining that question. The paper discusses concerns about delayed evacuation, the impact of delayed evacuation…

Thermocouples for forest fire research

Treesearch

Erwin H. Breuer

1965-01-01

Thermocouples have proved valuable in research conducted by the Fire Physics Project at the Northern Forest Fire Laboratory because they can measure several important fire variables besides flame and convection column temperatures. These include rate of spread and flame residence time. Describes a simple, rapid method of fabrication and reports useful and diverse...

Application of a MODIS Soil Moisture-Evapotranspiration (MOD-SMET) Model to Evaluate Landscape and Hydrologic Recovery after the High Park Fire in Colorado, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blount, W. K.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K.; Knipper, K. R.

2017-12-01

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is critical for the management of water resources, especially in water-stressed regions. ET accounts for approximately 60% of terrestrial precipitation globally and approaches 100% of annual rainfall in arid ecosystems, where transpiration becomes the dominant term. ET is difficult to measure due to its spatiotemporal variation, which requires adequate data coverage. While new remote sensing-based ET products are available at a 1 km spatial resolution, including the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model (SSEBop) and the MODIS Global Evapotranspiration Project (MOD16), these products are available at monthly and 8-day temporal resolutions, respectively. To better understand the changing dynamics of hydrologic fluxes and the partitioning of water after land cover disturbances and to identify statically significant trends, more frequent observations are necessary. Utilizing the recently developed MODIS Soil Moisture-Evapotranspiration (MOD-SMET) model, daily temporal resolution is achieved. This presentation outlines the methodology of the MOD-SMET model and compares SSEBop, MOD16, and MOD-SMET ET estimates over the High Park Fire burn scar in Colorado, USA. MOD-SMET estimates are used to identify changes in fluxes and partitioning of the water cycle after a wildfire and during recovery in the High Park Fire near Fort Collins, Colorado. Initial results indicate greenness and ET from all three models decrease post-fire, with higher statistical confidence in high burn areas and spatial patterns that closely align with burn severity. MOD-SMET improves the ability to resolve statistically significant changes in ET following wildfires and better understand changes in the post-fire water budget. Utilizing this knowledge, water resource managers can better plan for, and mitigate, the short- and long-term impacts of wildfire on regional water supplies.

Firefighters Integrated Response Equipment System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, H.; Abeles, F.

1978-01-01

The Firefighters Integrated Response Equipment System (Project FIRES) is a joint National Fire Prevention and Control Administration (NFPCA)/National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) program for the development of an 'ultimate' firefighter's protective ensemble. The overall aim of Project FIRES is to improve firefighter protection against hazards, such as heat, flame, smoke, toxic fumes, moisture, impact penetration, and electricity and, at the same time, improve firefighter performance by increasing maneuverability, lowering weight, and improving human engineering design of his protective ensemble.

Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT): Additive Manufactured Hot Fire Planning and Testing in GRC Cell 32 Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fikes, John C.

2014-01-01

The objective of this project is to hot fire test an additively manufactured thrust chamber assembly TCA (injector and thrust chamber). GRC will install the additively manufactured Inconel 625 injector, two additively manufactured (SLM) water cooled Cu-Cr thrust chamber barrels and one additively manufactured (SLM) water cooled Cu-Cr thrust chamber nozzle on the test stand in Cell 32 and perform hot fire testing of the integrated TCA.

Szendro - type Integrated Vegetation Fire Management--Wildfire Management Program from Hungary

Treesearch

Ágoston Restás

2006-01-01

Szendrő Fire Department is located in the northeastern part of Hungary. The main task is to fight against wildfire and mitigate the impact of fire at the Aggtelek National Park -- which belongs to the UNESCO World Heritage list. Because of greater effectiveness, in 2004 the Fire Department started a project named Integrated Vegetation Fire Management (IVFM)....

500 MW demonstration of advanced wall-fired combustion techniques for the reduction of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from coal-fired boilers. Public design report (preliminary and final)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-07-01

This Public Design Report presents the design criteria of a DOE Innovative Clean Coal Technology (ICCT) project demonstrating advanced wall-fired combustion techniques for the reduction of NO{sub x} emissions from coal-fired boilers. The project is being conducted at Georgia Power Company`s Plant Hammond Unit 4 (500 MW) near Rome, Georgia. The technologies being demonstrated at this site include Foster Wheeler Energy Corporation`s advanced overfire air system and Controlled Flow/Split Flame low NO{sub x} burner. This report provides documentation on the design criteria used in the performance of this project as it pertains to the scope involved with the low NO{submore » x} burners, advanced overfire systems, and digital control system.« less

Projections of emissions from burning of biomass foruse in studies of global climate and atmospheric chemistry

Treesearch

Darold E. Ward; Weimin Hao

1991-01-01

Emissions of trace gases and particulate matter from burning of biomass are generally factored into global climate models. Models for improving the estimates of the global annual release of emissions from biomass fires are presented. Estimates of total biomass consumed on a global basis range from 2 to 10 Pg (1 petagram = 1015 g) per year. New...

Modeling Man-Made Epidemics

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-01

ment.” He studied a 1995 Ebola Hemmoragic Fever (EHF) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Armed with the data from the EHF outbreak...contain three infantry men (plus a fire-team leader). For this model we are dealing with the reinforced infantry bat - 15 talion, the largest homogeneous...realistic model will be a daunting but neccessary task. The issue will be getting the right combination of individuals working on the project. At a

Assessing Fire Weather Index using statistical downscaling and spatial interpolation techniques in Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karali, Anna; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Frias, Maria Dolores; Hatzaki, Maria; Roussos, Anargyros; Casanueva, Ana

2013-04-01

Forest fires have always been present in the Mediterranean ecosystems, thus they constitute a major ecological and socio-economic issue. The last few decades though, the number of forest fires has significantly increased, as well as their severity and impact on the environment. Local fire danger projections are often required when dealing with wild fire research. In the present study the application of statistical downscaling and spatial interpolation methods was performed to the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), in order to assess forest fire risk in Greece. The FWI is used worldwide (including the Mediterranean basin) to estimate the fire danger in a generalized fuel type, based solely on weather observations. The meteorological inputs to the FWI System are noon values of dry-bulb temperature, air relative humidity, 10m wind speed and precipitation during the previous 24 hours. The statistical downscaling methods are based on a statistical model that takes into account empirical relationships between large scale variables (used as predictors) and local scale variables. In the framework of the current study the statistical downscaling portal developed by the Santander Meteorology Group (https://www.meteo.unican.es/downscaling) in the framework of the EU project CLIMRUN (www.climrun.eu) was used to downscale non standard parameters related to forest fire risk. In this study, two different approaches were adopted. Firstly, the analogue downscaling technique was directly performed to the FWI index values and secondly the same downscaling technique was performed indirectly through the meteorological inputs of the index. In both cases, the statistical downscaling portal was used considering the ERA-Interim reanalysis as predictands due to the lack of observations at noon. Additionally, a three-dimensional (3D) interpolation method of position and elevation, based on Thin Plate Splines (TPS) was used, to interpolate the ERA-Interim data used to calculate the index. Results from this method were compared with the statistical downscaling results obtained from the portal. Finally, FWI was computed using weather observations obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, mainly in the south continental part of Greece and a comparison with the previous results was performed.

Fire Impact on Phytomass and Carbon Emissions in the Forests of Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanova, Galina A.; Zhila, Sergei V.; Ivanov, Valery A.; Kovaleva, Nataly M.; Kukavskaya, Elena A.; Platonova, Irina A.; Conard, Susan G.

2014-05-01

Siberian boreal forests contribute considerably to the global carbon budget, since they take up vast areas, accumulate large amount of carbon, and are sensitive to climatic changes. Fire is the main forest disturbance factor, covering up to millions of hectares of boreal forests annually, of which the majority is in Siberia. Carbon emissions released from phytomass burning influence atmospheric chemistry and global carbon cycling. Changing climate and land use influence the number and intensity of wildfires, forest state, and productivity, as well as global carbon balance. Fire effects on forest overstory, subcanopy woody layer, and ground vegetation phytomass were estimated on sites in light-conifer forests of the Central Siberia as a part of the project "The Influence of Changing Forestry Practices on the Effects of Wildfire and on Interactions Between Fire and Changing Climate in Central Siberia" supported by NASA (NEESPI). This study focuses on collecting quantitative data and modeling the influence of fires of varying intensity on fire emissions, carbon budget, and ecosystem processes in coniferous stands. Fires have a profound impact on forest-atmospheric carbon exchange and transform forests from carbon sinks to carbon sources lasting long after the time of burning. Our long-term experiments allowed us to identify vegetation succession patterns in taiga Scots pine stands after fires of known behavior. Estimating fire contributions to the carbon budget requires consideration of many factors, including vegetation type and fire type and intensity. Carbon emissions were found to depend on fire intensity and weather. In the first several years after fire, the above-ground phytomass appeared to be strongly controlled by fire intensity. However, the influence of burning intensity on organic matter accumulation was found to decrease with time.

The Impact of Increasing Fire Frequency on Forest Transformations in the Zabaikal Region, Southern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conard, S. G.; Kukavskaya, E. A.; Buryak, L. V.; Shvetsov, E.; Kalenskaya, O. P.; Zhila, S.

2017-12-01

The Zabaikal region of southern Siberia is characterized by some of the highest fire activity in Russia. There has been a significant increase of fire frequency and burned area in the region over the last two decades due to a combination of high anthropogenic pressure, decreased funding to the forestry sector, and increased fire danger, which was associated with higher frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Central and southern parts of the Zabaikal region where population density is higher and road network is relatively more developed are the most disturbed by fires. Larch stands cover the largest proportion of fire-disturbed lands in the region, while the less common pine and birch stands are characterized by higher fire frequency. About 13% (3.9 M ha) of the total forest area in the Zabaikal region was burned more than once in the 20 years from 1996 to 2015, with many sites burned multiple times. Repeat disturbances led to inadequate tree regeneration on all but the moistest sites. Pine stands on dry soils, which are common in the forest-steppe zone, were the most vulnerable. After repeat burns and over large burned sites we observed transformation of the forests to steppe ecosystems. The most likely causes of insufficient forest regeneration are soil overheating, dominance of tall grasses, and lack of nearby seed sources. Extensive tree plantations have potential to mitigate negative fire impacts; however, due to high fire hazard in the recent decade about half of the plantation area has been burned. Changes in the SWVI index were used to assess postfire reforestation based on a combination of satellite and field data. In the southwestern part of the Zabaikal region, we estimated that reforestation had been hampered over 11% of the forest land area. Regional climate models project increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation across Siberia by the end of the 21st century, with changes in the Zabaikal region projected to be more than twice the average rate in Siberia. This would likely lead to higher fire activity in the region. Implementation of sustainable forest management strategies has the potential to mitigate effects of changing climate and fire regimes on forest ecosystems in the Zabaikal region. This research was supported by the RFBR grant (# 15-04-06567) and the NASA LCLUC Program.

Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2014-05-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify threshold values of indices useful to determine the end of the potential fire season due to fuel status. A weather generator linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Sardinia, Italy. Finally, impacts of future climate change on fire season length at local scale were simulated. Results confirmed that the projected climate scenarios over the Mediterranean area will determine an overall increase of the fire season length.

FIRE III ACE Data Sets

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2017-12-22

... in conjunction with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) Experiment. The FIRE-ACE focused on all aspects of Arctic cloud ... Alaska with measurements extending well over the Arctic Ocean (ship and aircraft). Guide Documents:  FIRE Project ...

Soil Data from a Moderately Well and Somewhat Poorly Drained Fire Chronosequence near Thompson, Manitoba, Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manies, K.L.; Harden, J.W.; Veldhuis, Hugo; Trumbore, Sue

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey project Fate of Carbon in Alaskan Landscapes (FOCAL) is studying the effect of fire and soil drainage on soil carbon storage in the boreal forest. As such this group was invited to be a part of a NSF-funded project (Fire, Ecosystem and Succession - Experiment Boreal or FIRES-ExB) to study the carbon balance of sites that varied in age (time since fire) and soil drainage in the Thompson, Manitoba, Canada region. This report describes the location of our FIRES-ExB sampling sites as well as the procedures used to describe, sample, and analyze the soils. This report also contains data tables with sample related information including, but not limited to, field descriptions, bulk density, particle size distribution, moisture content, carbon (C) concentration, nitrogen (N) concentration, isotopic data for C, and major, minor and trace elemental concentration.

Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fofrich, R.; Shearer, C.; Davis, S. J.

2017-12-01

India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions due to its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves. In this study, we assess existing and proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future energy production and emissions in the country. In 2016, India had 369 coal-fired power plants under development totaling 243 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity. These coal-fired power plants would increase India's coal-fired generating capacity by 123% and would exceed India's projected electricity demand. Therefore, India's current proposals for new coal-fired power plants would be forced to retire early or operate at very low capacity factors and/or would prevent India from meeting its goal of producing at least 40% of its power from renewable sources by 2030. In addition, future emissions from proposed coal-fired power plants would exceed India's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% - 35% by 2030.

Contribution of Earth Observation and meteorological datasets for the design and development of a national fire risk assessment system (NFOFRAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katagis, Thomas; Bliziotis, Dimitris; Liantinioti, Chrysa; Gitas, Ioannis Z.; Charalampopoulou, Betty

2016-08-01

During the past decades, forest fires have increased both in frequency and severity thus, increasing the life threats for people and environment and leading countries to spend vast amounts of resources in fighting forest fires. Besides anthropogenic activities, climatic and environmental changes are considered as driving factors affecting fire occurrence and vegetation succession. Especially in the Mediterranean region, the development and existence of effective tools and services is crucial for assisting pre-fire planning and preparedness. The collaborative project NFOFRAS aims at introducing an innovative and effective system for rating forest fire risk, and is based on existing technology and standards that have been developed by countries with a long and a very successful involvement in this field. During the first phase of the project a detailed documentation of the proposed methodology was composed. In addition, Earth Observation (EO) and meteorological datasets were utilized for producing accurate pre-fire measurements over a selected study area in Greece.

Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Pfaff, Anne Hopkins; Ferschweiler, Ken

2017-01-01

Growing human and ecological costs due to increasing wildfire are an urgent concern in policy and management, particularly given projections of worsening fire conditions under climate change. Thus, understanding the relationship between climatic variation and fire activity is a critically important scientific question. Different factors limit fire behavior in different places and times, but most fire-climate analyses are conducted across broad spatial extents that mask geographical variation. This could result in overly broad or inappropriate management and policy decisions that neglect to account for regionally specific or other important factors driving fire activity. We developed statistical models relating seasonal temperature and precipitation variables to historical annual fire activity for 37 different regions across the continental United States and asked whether and how fire-climate relationships vary geographically, and why climate is more important in some regions than in others. Climatic variation played a significant role in explaining annual fire activity in some regions, but the relative importance of seasonal temperature or precipitation, in addition to the overall importance of climate, varied substantially depending on geographical context. Human presence was the primary reason that climate explained less fire activity in some regions than in others. That is, where human presence was more prominent, climate was less important. This means that humans may not only influence fire regimes but their presence can actually override, or swamp out, the effect of climate. Thus, geographical context as well as human influence should be considered alongside climate in national wildfire policy and management.

Forecasting European Wildfires Today and in the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro Abellan, Maria; Porras Alegre, Ignasi; María Sole, Josep; Gálvez, Pedro; Bielski, Conrad; Nurmi, Pertti

2017-04-01

Society as a whole is increasingly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters due to extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change. The increased frequency of wildfires is not only a result of a changing climate, but wildfires themselves also produce a significant amount of greenhouse gases that, in-turn, further contribute to global warming. I-REACT (Improving Resilience to Emergencies through Advanced Cyber Technologies) is an innovation project funded by the European Commission , which aims to use social media, smartphones and wearables to improve natural disaster management by integrating existing services, both local and European, into a platform that supports the entire emergency management cycle. In order to assess the impact of climate change on wildfire hazards, METEOSIM designed two different System Processes (SP) that will be integrated into the I-REACT service that can provide information on a variety of time scales. SP1 - Climate Change Impact The climate change impact on climate variables related to fires is calculated by building an ensemble based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CORDEX data. A validation and an Empirical-Statistical Downscaling (ESD) calibration are done to assess the changes in the past of the climatic variables related to wildfires (temperature, precipitation, wind, relative humidity and Fire Weather Index). Calculations in the trend and the frequency of extreme events of those variables are done for three time scales: near-term (2011-2040), mid-term (2041-2070) and long term (2071-2100). SP2 - Operational daily forecast of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Using ensemble data from the ECMWF and from the GLAMEPS (multi-model ensemble) models, both supplied by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and its index components are produced for each ensemble member within a wide forecast time range, from a few hours up to 10 days resulting in a probabilistic output of the FWI for different regions in Europe. This work will improve the currently available information to various wildfire information users such as fire departments, the civil protection, local authorities, etc., where accurate and reliable information in extreme weather situations are vital for improving planning and risk management.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Williams, A Park

2016-10-18

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Park Williams, A.

2016-10-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ˜55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tom Elicson; Bentley Harwood; Jim Bouchard

Over a 12 month period, a fire PRA was developed for a DOE facility using the NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC fire PRA methodology. The fire PRA modeling included calculation of fire severity factors (SFs) and fire non-suppression probabilities (PNS) for each safe shutdown (SSD) component considered in the fire PRA model. The SFs were developed by performing detailed fire modeling through a combination of CFAST fire zone model calculations and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). Component damage times and automatic fire suppression system actuation times calculated in the CFAST LHS analyses were then input to a time-dependent model of fire non-suppression probability. Themore » fire non-suppression probability model is based on the modeling approach outlined in NUREG/CR-6850 and is supplemented with plant specific data. This paper presents the methodology used in the DOE facility fire PRA for modeling fire-induced SSD component failures and includes discussions of modeling techniques for: • Development of time-dependent fire heat release rate profiles (required as input to CFAST), • Calculation of fire severity factors based on CFAST detailed fire modeling, and • Calculation of fire non-suppression probabilities.« less

Smart Gun Technology project. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weiss, D.R.

The goal of the Smart Gun Technology project is to eliminate the capability of an unauthorized user form firing a law officer`s firearm by implementing user-recognizing-and-authorizing (or {open_quotes}smart{close_quotes}) surety technologies. This project was funded by the National Institute of Justice. This report lists the findings and results of the project`s three primary objectives. First, to find and document the requirements for a smart firearm technology that law enforcement officers will value. Second, to investigate, evaluate, and prioritize technologies that meet the requirements for a law enforcement officer`s smart firearm. Third, to demonstrate and document the most promising technology`s usefulness inmore » models of a smart firearm.« less

Diesel-fired self-pumping water heater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gertsmann, Joseph

1994-07-01

The object of this project was to study the feasibility of pumping and heating water by sustained oscillatory vaporization and condensation in a fired heat exchanger. Portable field liquid fueled water heaters would facilitate heating water for sanitation, personal hygiene, food service, laundry, equipment maintenance, and decontamination presently available only from larger, less portable, motorized pumping units. The technical tasks consisted of: development of an analytical model, operation of proof-of-principal prototypes, and determination of the thermal and mechanical relationships to evaluate operating range and control characteristics. Four successive pump models were analyzed and tested. The final analytical model gave reasonable agreement with the experimental results, indicating that the actual pumping effect was an order of magnitude lower than originally anticipated. It was concluded that a thermally-activated self pumping water heater based on the proposed principle is not feasible.

Cheatgrass percent cover change: Comparing recent estimates to climate change − Driven predictions in the Northern Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyte, Stephen P.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Major, Donald J.

2016-01-01

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) is a highly invasive species in the Northern Great Basin that helps decrease fire return intervals. Fire fragments the shrub steppe and reduces its capacity to provide forage for livestock and wildlife and habitat critical to sagebrush obligates. Of particular interest is the greater sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), an obligate whose populations have declined so severely due, in part, to increases in cheatgrass and fires that it was considered for inclusion as an endangered species. Remote sensing technologies and satellite archives help scientists monitor terrestrial vegetation globally, including cheatgrass in the Northern Great Basin. Along with geospatial analysis and advanced spatial modeling, these data and technologies can identify areas susceptible to increased cheatgrass cover and compare these with greater sage grouse priority areas for conservation (PAC). Future climate models forecast a warmer and wetter climate for the Northern Great Basin, which likely will force changing cheatgrass dynamics. Therefore, we examine potential climate-caused changes to cheatgrass. Our results indicate that future cheatgrass percent cover will remain stable over more than 80% of the study area when compared with recent estimates, and higher overall cheatgrass cover will occur with slightly more spatial variability. The land area projected to increase or decrease in cheatgrass cover equals 18% and 1%, respectively, making an increase in fire disturbances in greater sage grouse habitat likely. Relative susceptibility measures, created by integrating cheatgrass percent cover and temporal standard deviation datasets, show that potential increases in future cheatgrass cover match future projections. This discovery indicates that some greater sage grouse PACs for conservation could be at heightened risk of fire disturbance. Multiple factors will affect future cheatgrass cover including changes in precipitation timing and totals and increases in freeze-thaw cycles. Understanding these effects can help direct land management, guide scientific research, and influence policy.

Ecological consequences of alternative fuel reduction treatments in seasonally dry forests: the national fire and fire surrogate study

Treesearch

J.D. McIver; C.J. Fettig

2010-01-01

This special issue of Forest Science features the national Fire and Fire Surrogate study (FFS), a niultisite, multivariate research project that evaluates the ecological consequences of prescribed fire and its mechanical surrogates in seasonally dry forests of the United States. The need for a comprehensive national FFS study stemmed from concern that information on...

Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high-severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests

Treesearch

Daniel J. Krofcheck; Matthew D. Hurteau; Robert M. Scheller; E. Louise Loudermilk

2017-01-01

In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels...

Factors in United States Forest Service district rangers' decision to manage a fire for resource benefit

Treesearch

Martha A. Williamson

2007-01-01

United States wildland fire policy and program reviews in 1995 and 2000 required both the reduction of hazardous fuel and recognition of fire as a natural process. Despite the fact that existing policy permits managing natural ignitions to meet resource benefits, or Wildland Fire Use (WFU), most fuel reduction projects rely on mechanical treatments and prescribed fire...

Prescribed fire research in Pennsylvania

Treesearch

Patrick Brose

2009-01-01

Prescribed fire in Pennsylvania is a relatively new forestry practice because of the State's adverse experience with highly destructive wildfires in the early 1900s. The recent introduction of prescribed fire raises a myriad of questions regarding its correct and safe use. This poster briefly describes the prescribed fire research projects of the Forestry Sciences...

Evaluating Injury Prevention Programs: The Oklahoma City Smoke Alarm Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mallonee, Sue

2000-01-01

Illustrates how evaluating the Oklahoma City Smoke Alarm Project increased its success in reducing residential fire-related injuries and deaths. The program distributed and tested smoke alarms in residential dwellings and offered educational materials on fire prevention and safety. Evaluation provided sound data on program processes and outcomes,…

Facilitating climate change assessments by providing easy access to data and decision-support tools on-line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D. M.

2012-12-01

Public land managers are under increasing pressure to consider the potential impacts of climate change but they often lack access to the necessary scientific information and the support to interpret projections. Over 27% of the United States land area are designated as protected areas (e.g. National Parks and Wilderness Areas) including 76,900,000 ha of National Forests areas for which management plans need to be revised to prepare for climate change. Projections of warmer drier conditions raise concerns about extended summer drought, increased fire risks and potential pest/insect outbreaks threatening the carbon sequestration potential of the region as well as late summer water availability. Downscaled climate projections, soil vulnerability indices, and simulated climate change impacts on vegetation cover, fire frequency, carbon stocks, as well as species range shifts, have been uploaded in databasin.org to provide easy access to documented information that can be displayed, shared, and freely manipulated on line. We have uploaded NARCCAP scenarios and provided animations and time series display to look at regional and temporal trends in climate projections. We have uploaded simulation results of vegetation shifts from the global scale to local national parks and shared results with concerned managers. We have used combinations of vegetation models and niche models to evaluate wildlife resilience to future conditions. We have designed fuzzy logic models for ecological assessment projects and made them available on the Data Basin web site. We describe how we have used all this information to quantify climate change vulnerability for a variety of ecosystems, developing new web tools to provide comparative summaries of the various types of spatial and temporal data available for different regions.

Projection-Target-Defined Effects of Orexin and Dynorphin on VTA Dopamine Neurons.

PubMed

Baimel, Corey; Lau, Benjamin K; Qiao, Min; Borgland, Stephanie L

2017-02-07

Circuit-specific signaling of ventral tegmental area (VTA) dopamine neurons drives different aspects of motivated behavior, but the neuromodulatory control of these circuits is unclear. We tested the actions of co-expressed lateral hypothalamic peptides, orexin A (oxA) and dynorphin (dyn), on projection-target-defined dopamine neurons in mice. We determined that VTA dopamine neurons that project to the nucleus accumbens lateral shell (lAcbSh), medial shell (mAcbSh), and basolateral amygdala (BLA) are largely non-overlapping cell populations with different electrophysiological properties. Moreover, the neuromodulatory effects of oxA and dyn on these three projections differed. OxA selectively increased firing in lAcbSh- and mAcbSh-projecting dopamine neurons. Dyn decreased firing in the majority of mAcbSh- and BLA-projecting dopamine neurons but reduced firing only in a small fraction of those that project to the lAcbSh. In conclusion, the oxA-dyn input to the VTA may drive reward-seeking behavior by tuning dopaminergic output in a projection-target-dependent manner. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Baghdad

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-16

article title:  Oil Fire Plumes Over Baghdad     View Larger Image Dark smoke from oil fires extend for about 60 kilometers south of Iraq's capital city of ... at JPL April 2, 2003 - Dark smoke from oil fires in Baghdad, Iraq. project:  MISR ...

Satellite Analyses of Cirrus Cloud Properties During the FIRE Phase 2 Cirrus Intensive Field Observations over Kansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minnis, Patrick; Young, David F.; Heck, Patrick W.; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Takano, Yoshihide

1992-01-01

The First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) Phase II Intensive Field Observations (IFO) were taken over southeastern Kansas between November 13 and December 7,1991, to determine cirrus cloud properties. The observations include in situ microphysical data; surface, aircraft, and satellite remote sensing; and measurements of divergence over meso- and smaller-scale areas using wind profilers. Satellite remote sensing of cloud characteristics is an essential aspect for understanding and predicting the role of clouds in climate variations. The objectives of the satellite cloud analysis during FIRE are to validate cloud property retrievals, develop advanced methods for extracting cloud information from satellite-measured radiances, and provide multiscale cloud data for cloud process studies and for verification of cloud generation models. This paper presents the initial results of cloud property analyses during FIRE-II using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data and NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) radiances.

Display Developer for Firing Room Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowman, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

The firing room at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is responsible for all NASA human spaceflight launch operations, therefore it is vital that all displays within the firing room be properly tested, up-to-date, and user-friendly during a launch. The Ground Main Propulsion System (GMPS) requires a number of remote displays for Vehicle Integration and Launch (VIL) Operations at KSC. My project is to develop remote displays for the GMPS using the Display Services and Framework (DSF) editor. These remote displays will be based on model images provided by GMPS through PowerPoint. Using the DSF editor, the PowerPoint images can be recreated with active buttons associated with the correct Compact Unique Identifiers (CUIs). These displays will be documented in the Software Requirements and Design Specifications (SRDS) at the 90% GMPS Design Review. In the future, these remote displays will be available for other developers to improve, edit, or add on to so that the display may be incorporated into the firing room to be used for launches.

Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

Fire is a fundamental Earth system process and the primary ecosystem disturbance on the global scale. It affects carbon and water cycles through changing terrestrial ecosystems, and at the same time, is regulated by weather and climate, vegetation characteristics, and, importantly, human ignitions and suppression (i.e., the direct human effect on fire). Here, we utilize the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) to quantify the impacts of changes in human ignition and suppression on fire dynamics and associated carbon and water cycles. We find that the impact is to significantly reduce the 20th century global burned area by a centurymore » average of 38 Mha/yr and by 103 Mha/yr at the end of the century. Land carbon gain is weakened by 17% over the 20th century, mainly due to increased human deforestation fires and associated escape fires (i.e., degradation fires) in the tropical humid forests, even though the decrease in burned area in many other regions due to human fire suppression acts to increase land carbon gain. The direct human effect on fire weakens the upward trend in global runoff throughout the century by 6% and enhances the upward trend in global evapotranspiration since ~ 1945 by 7%. In addition, the above impacts in densely populated, highly developed (if population density > 0.1 person/km2), or moderately populated and developed regions are of opposite sign to those in other regions. Our study suggests that particular attention should be paid to human deforestation and degradation fires in the tropical humid forests when reconstructing and projecting fire carbon emissions and net atmosphere-land carbon exchange and estimating resultant impacts of direct human effect on fire.« less

Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2018-03-01

Fire is a fundamental Earth system process and the primary ecosystem disturbance on the global scale. It affects carbon and water cycles through changing terrestrial ecosystems, and at the same time, is regulated by weather and climate, vegetation characteristics, and, importantly, human ignitions and suppression (i.e., the direct human effect on fire). Here, we utilize the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) to quantify the impacts of changes in human ignition and suppression on fire dynamics and associated carbon and water cycles. We find that the impact is to significantly reduce the 20th century global burned area by a century average of 38 Mha/yr and by 103 Mha/yr at the end of the century. Land carbon gain is weakened by 17% over the 20th century, mainly due to increased human deforestation fires and associated escape fires (i.e., degradation fires) in the tropical humid forests, even though the decrease in burned area in many other regions due to human fire suppression acts to increase land carbon gain. The direct human effect on fire weakens the upward trend in global runoff throughout the century by 6% and enhances the upward trend in global evapotranspiration since 1945 by 7%. In addition, the above impacts in densely populated, highly developed (if population density > 0.1 person/km2), or moderately populated and developed regions are of opposite sign to those in other regions. Our study suggests that particular attention should be paid to human deforestation and degradation fires in the tropical humid forests when reconstructing and projecting fire carbon emissions and net atmosphere-land carbon exchange and estimating resultant impacts of direct human effect on fire.

Effects of biotic feedback and harvest management on boreal forest fire activity under climate change.

PubMed

Krawchuk, Meg A; Cumming, Steve G

2011-01-01

Predictions of future fire activity over Canada's boreal forests have primarily been generated from climate data following assumptions that direct effects of weather will stand alone in contributing to changes in burning. However, this assumption needs explicit testing. First, areas recently burned can be less likely to burn again in the near term, and this endogenous regulation suggests the potential for self-limiting, negative biotic feedback to regional climate-driven increases in fire. Second, forest harvest is ongoing, and resulting changes in vegetation structure have been shown to affect fire activity. Consequently, we tested the assumption that fire activity will be driven by changes in fire weather without regulation by biotic feedback or regional harvest-driven changes in vegetation structure in the mixedwood boreal forest of Alberta, Canada, using a simulation experiment that includes the interaction of fire, stand dynamics, climate change, and clear cut harvest management. We found that climate change projected with fire weather indices calculated from the Canadian Regional Climate Model increased fire activity, as expected, and our simulations established evidence that the magnitude of regional increase in fire was sufficient to generate negative feedback to subsequent fire activity. We illustrate a 39% (1.39-fold) increase in fire initiation and 47% (1.47-fold) increase in area burned when climate and stand dynamics were included in simulations, yet 48% (1.48-fold) and 61% (1.61-fold) increases, respectively, when climate was considered alone. Thus, although biotic feedbacks reduced burned area estimates in important ways, they were secondary to the direct effect of climate on fire. We then show that ongoing harvest management in this region changed landscape composition in a way that led to reduced fire activity, even in the context of climate change. Although forest harvesting resulted in decreased regional fire activity when compared to unharvested conditions, forest composition and age structure was shifted substantially, illustrating a trade-off between management goals to minimize fire and conservation goals to emulate natural disturbance.

Mixed severity fire effects within the Rim fire: Relative importance of local climate, fire weather, topography, and forest structure

Treesearch

Van R. Kane; C. Alina Cansler; Nicholas A. Povak; Jonathan T. Kane; Robert J. McGaughey; James A. Lutz; Derek J. Churchill; Malcolm P. North

2015-01-01

Recent and projected increases in the frequency and severity of large wildfires in the western U.S. makes understanding the factors that strongly affect landscape fire patterns a management priority for optimizing treatment location. We compared the influence of variations in the local environment on burn severity patterns on the large 2013 Rim fire that burned under...

Research perspectives on the public and fire management: a synthesis of current social science on eight essential questions

Treesearch

Sarah M. McCaffrey; Christine S. Olsen

2012-01-01

As part of a Joint Fire Science Program project, a team of social scientists reviewed existing fire social science literature to develop a targeted synthesis of scientific knowledge on the following questions: 1. What is the public's understanding of fire's role in the ecosystem? 2. Who are trusted sources of information about fire? 3. What are the public...

Using simulated historical time series to prioritize fuel treatments on landscapes across the United States: The LANDFIRE prototype project

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Matthew Rollins; Zhi-Liang Zhu

2007-01-01

Canopy and surface fuels in many fire-prone forests of the United States have increased over the last 70 years as a result of modern fire exclusion policies, grazing, and other land management activities. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act and National Fire Plan establish a national commitment to reduce fire hazard and restore fire-adapted ecosystems across the USA....

Computer Model Locates Environmental Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

Catherine Huybrechts Burton founded San Francisco-based Endpoint Environmental (2E) LLC in 2005 while she was a student intern and project manager at Ames Research Center with NASA's DEVELOP program. The 2E team created the Tire Identification from Reflectance model, which algorithmically processes satellite images using turnkey technology to retain only the darkest parts of an image. This model allows 2E to locate piles of rubber tires, which often are stockpiled illegally and cause hazardous environmental conditions and fires.

Air quality impacts of projections of natural gas-fired distributed generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Jeremy R.; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Dabdub, Donald; Lemar, Paul; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Shah, Tejas; Yarwood, Greg; Young, David; Shaw, Stephanie L.; Knipping, Eladio M.

2017-11-01

This study assesses the potential impacts on emissions and air quality from the increased adoption of natural gas-fired distributed generation of electricity (DG), including displacement of power from central power generation, in the contiguous United States. The study includes four major tasks: (1) modeling of distributed generation market penetration; (2) modeling of central power generation systems; (3) modeling of spatially and temporally resolved emissions; and (4) photochemical grid modeling to evaluate the potential air quality impacts of increased DG penetration, which includes both power-only DG and combined heat and power (CHP) units, for 2030. Low and high DG penetration scenarios estimate the largest penetration of future DG units in three regions - New England, New York, and California. Projections of DG penetration in the contiguous United States estimate 6.3 GW and 24 GW of market adoption in 2030 for the low DG penetration and high DG penetration scenarios, respectively. High DG penetration (all of which is natural gas-fired) serves to offset 8 GW of new natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) units, and 19 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations by 2030. In all scenarios, air quality in the central United States and the northwest remains unaffected as there is little to no DG penetration in those states. California and several states in the northeast are the most impacted by emissions from DG units. Peak increases in maximum daily 8-h average ozone concentrations exceed 5 ppb, which may impede attainment of ambient air quality standards. Overall, air quality impacts from DG vary greatly based on meteorological conditions, proximity to emissions sources, the number and type of DG installations, and the emissions factors used for DG units.

Carbon budget of Ontario's managed forests and harvested wood products, 2001–2100

Treesearch

Jiaxin Chen; Stephen J. Colombo; Michael T. Ter-Mikaelian; Linda S. Heath

2010-01-01

Forest and harvested wood products (HWP) carbon (C) stocks between 2001 and 2100 for Ontario's managed forests were projected using FORCARB-ON, an adaptation of the U.S. national forest C budget model known as FORCARB2. A fire disturbance module was introduced to FORCARB-ON to simulate the effects of wildfire on C, and some of the model's C pools were re-...

FIRE_CI2_ETL_RADAR

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2015-11-25

FIRE_CI2_ETL_RADAR Project Title:  FIRE II CIRRUS Discipline:  ... Platform:  Ground Station Instrument:  Radar Spatial Coverage:  (37.06, -95.34) Spatial ... Order Data Guide Documents:  ETL_RADAR Guide Readme Files:  Readme ETL_RADAR (PS) ...

Effects of disturbance and climate change on ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, Bruce K.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Brisco, Brian; Mrnaghan, Kevin; Rover, Jennifer R.; Long, Jordan

2014-01-01

A warming climate influences boreal forest productivity, dynamics, and disturbance regimes. We used ecosystem models and 250 m satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data averaged over the growing season (GSN) to model current, and estimate future, ecosystem performance. We modeled Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), or anticipated productivity, in undisturbed stands over the 2000–2008 period from a variety of abiotic data sources, using a rule-based piecewise regression tree. The EEP model was applied to a future climate ensemble A1B projection to quantify expected changes to mature boreal forest performance. Ecosystem Performance Anomalies (EPA), were identified as the residuals of the EEP and GSN relationship and represent performance departures from expected performance conditions. These performance data were used to monitor successional events following fire. Results suggested that maximum EPA occurs 30–40 years following fire, and deciduous stands generally have higher EPA than coniferous stands. Mean undisturbed EEP is projected to increase 5.6% by 2040 and 8.7% by 2070, suggesting an increased deciduous component in boreal forests. Our results contribute to the understanding of boreal forest successional dynamics and its response to climate change. This information enables informed decisions to prepare for, and adapt to, climate change in the Yukon River Basin forest.

24 CFR 3280.207 - Requirements for foam plastic thermal insulating materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... include intensity of cavity fire (temperature-time) and post-test damage. (iii) Post-test damage... Technology Research Institute (IIT) Report, “Development of Mobile Home Fire Test Methods to Judge the Fire... Project J-6461, 1979” or other full-scale fire tests accepted by HUD, and it is installed in a manner...

24 CFR 3280.207 - Requirements for foam plastic thermal insulating materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... include intensity of cavity fire (temperature-time) and post-test damage. (iii) Post-test damage... Technology Research Institute (IIT) Report, “Development of Mobile Home Fire Test Methods to Judge the Fire... Project J-6461, 1979” or other full-scale fire tests accepted by HUD, and it is installed in a manner...

24 CFR 3280.207 - Requirements for foam plastic thermal insulating materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... include intensity of cavity fire (temperature-time) and post-test damage. (iii) Post-test damage... Technology Research Institute (IIT) Report, “Development of Mobile Home Fire Test Methods to Judge the Fire... Project J-6461, 1979” or other full-scale fire tests accepted by HUD, and it is installed in a manner...

24 CFR 3280.207 - Requirements for foam plastic thermal insulating materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... include intensity of cavity fire (temperature-time) and post-test damage. (iii) Post-test damage... Technology Research Institute (IIT) Report, “Development of Mobile Home Fire Test Methods to Judge the Fire... Project J-6461, 1979” or other full-scale fire tests accepted by HUD, and it is installed in a manner...

24 CFR 3280.207 - Requirements for foam plastic thermal insulating materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... include intensity of cavity fire (temperature-time) and post-test damage. (iii) Post-test damage... Technology Research Institute (IIT) Report, “Development of Mobile Home Fire Test Methods to Judge the Fire... Project J-6461, 1979” or other full-scale fire tests accepted by HUD, and it is installed in a manner...

Fire Severity and Intensity During Spring Burning in Natural and Masticated Mixed Shrub Woodlands

Treesearch

Tim Bradley; Jennifer Gibson; Windy Bunn

2006-01-01

Fire risk is an ever present management concern in many urban interface regions. To mitigate this risk, land management agencies have expanded their options beyond prescribed fire to include vegetation mastication and other mechanical fuel treatments. This research project examined fire severity and intensity in masticated and unmanipulated units that were burned in...

Fire, fuel treatments, and ecological restoration: Conference proceedings; 2002 16-18 April; Fort Collins, CO

Treesearch

Philip N. Omi; Linda A. Joyce

2003-01-01

Recent fires have spawned intense interest in fuel treatment and ecological restoration activities. Scientists and land managers have been advocating these activities for years, and the recent fires have provided incentives for federal, state, and local entities to move ahead with ambitious hazard reduction and restoration projects. Recent fires also have increased...

Accelerated restoration: new landscape tools to prioritize projects and analyze tradeoffs

Treesearch

Alan Ager; Paul Meznarich

2014-01-01

The catastrophic fires and tragic losses during the 2013 fire season have resulted in many discussions about fire management policies aimed at protecting communities and restoring fire-resilient forests from the growing incidence of severe wildfires. Forest Service scientist Alan Ager has been exploring how concepts in spatial ecology and operations research can be...

Predicting Peak Flows following Forest Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; Dobre, Mariana

2016-04-01

Following forest fires, peak flows in perennial and ephemeral streams often increase by a factor of 10 or more. This increase in peak flow rate may overwhelm existing downstream structures, such as road culverts, causing serious damage to road fills at stream crossings. In order to predict peak flow rates following wildfires, we have applied two different tools. One is based on the U.S.D.A Natural Resource Conservation Service Curve Number Method (CN), and the other is by applying the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) to the watershed. In our presentation, we will describe the science behind the two methods, and present the main variables for each model. We will then provide an example of a comparison of the two methods to a fire-prone watershed upstream of the City of Flagstaff, Arizona, USA, where a fire spread model was applied for current fuel loads, and for likely fuel loads following a fuel reduction treatment. When applying the curve number method, determining the time to peak flow can be problematic for low severity fires because the runoff flow paths are both surface and through shallow lateral flow. The WEPP watershed version incorporates shallow lateral flow into stream channels. However, the version of the WEPP model that was used for this study did not have channel routing capabilities, but rather relied on regression relationships to estimate peak flows from individual hillslope polygon peak runoff rates. We found that the two methods gave similar results if applied correctly, with the WEPP predictions somewhat greater than the CN predictions. Later releases of the WEPP model have incorporated alternative methods for routing peak flows that need to be evaluated.

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems.

PubMed

Coates, Peter S; Ricca, Mark A; Prochazka, Brian G; Brooks, Matthew L; Doherty, Kevin E; Kroger, Travis; Blomberg, Erik J; Hagen, Christian A; Casazza, Michael L

2016-10-25

Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass-fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Ricca, Mark; Prochazka, Brian; Brooks, Matthew L.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Kroger, Travis; Blomberg, Erik J.; Hagen, Christian A.; Casazza, Michael L.

2016-01-01

Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass–fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirschi, M.; Stoeckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Calanca, P.; Rotach, M. W.; Fischer, A. M.; Duffy, B.; Samietz, J.

2012-02-01

As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980-2009 and 2045-2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045-2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1% on average today to over 60% in the future for the median climate change signal of the multi-model projections), the actual risk will critically depend on the pace of the adaptation of the codling moth with respect to the critical photoperiod. To control this additional generation, an intensification and prolongation of control measures (e.g. insecticides) will be required, implying an increasing risk of pesticide resistances. For fire blight, the projected changes in infection days are less certain due to uncertainties in the leaf wetness approximation and the simulation of the blooming period. Two compensating effects are projected, warmer temperatures favoring infections are balanced by a temperature-induced advancement of the blooming period, leading to no significant change in the number of infection days under future climate conditions for most stations.

Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirschi, M.; Stoeckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Calanca, P.; Rotach, M. W.; Fischer, A. M.; Duffy, B.; Samietz, J.

2011-08-01

As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously not affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology depending on actual weather conditions and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980-2009 and 2045-2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045-2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1 % on average today to over 60 % in the future for the median climate change signal of the multi-model projections), the actual risk will critically depend on the pace of the adaptation of the codling moth with respect to the critical photoperiod. To control this additional generation, an intensification and prolongation of control measures (e.g., insecticides) will be required, implying an increasing risk of pesticide resistances. For fire blight, the projected changes in infection days are less certain due to uncertainties in the leaf wetness approximation and the simulation of the blooming period. Two compensating effects are projected, warmer temperatures favoring infections are balanced by a temperature-induced advancement of the blooming period, leading to no significant change in the number of infection days under future climate conditions for most stations.

Fire prevention in California's Riverside County Headstart Project...an evaluation

Treesearch

William S. Folkman; Jean Taylor

1972-01-01

An especially designed series of fire prevention lessons were taught to preschool children in the Headstart Project in Riverside County, Calif. Their effectiveness was evaluated by observing classroom reaction and by testing the children at the end of the year. The results suggest that this type of educational approach is feasible.

Coupling of Bayesian Networks with GIS for wildfire risk assessment on natural and agricultural areas of the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherb, Anke; Papakosta, Panagiota; Straub, Daniel

2014-05-01

Wildfires cause severe damages to ecosystems, socio-economic assets, and human lives in the Mediterranean. To facilitate coping with wildfire risks, an understanding of the factors influencing wildfire occurrence and behavior (e.g. human activity, weather conditions, topography, fuel loads) and their interaction is of importance, as is the implementation of this knowledge in improved wildfire hazard and risk prediction systems. In this project, a probabilistic wildfire risk prediction model is developed, with integrated fire occurrence and fire propagation probability and potential impact prediction on natural and cultivated areas. Bayesian Networks (BNs) are used to facilitate the probabilistic modeling. The final BN model is a spatial-temporal prediction system at the meso scale (1 km2 spatial and 1 day temporal resolution). The modeled consequences account for potential restoration costs and production losses referred to forests, agriculture, and (semi-) natural areas. BNs and a geographic information system (GIS) are coupled within this project to support a semi-automated BN model parameter learning and the spatial-temporal risk prediction. The coupling also enables the visualization of prediction results by means of daily maps. The BN parameters are learnt for Cyprus with data from 2006-2009. Data from 2010 is used as validation data set. A special focus is put on the performance evaluation of the BN for fire occurrence, which is modeled as binary classifier and thus, could be validated by means of Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves. With the final best models, AUC values of more than 70% for validation could be achieved, which indicates potential for reliable prediction performance via BN. Maps of selected days in 2010 are shown to illustrate final prediction results. The resulting system can be easily expanded to predict additional expected damages in the mesoscale (e.g. building and infrastructure damages). The system can support planning of preventive measures (e.g. state resources allocation for wildfire prevention and preparedness) and assist recuperation plans of damaged areas.

Enhanced Risk of Wildfire Resulting from the Interactions between Pyro-Cumulus and Mountain Waves: Implications for Fire Research and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y. J.; Linn, R.; Sauer, J.; Canfield, J.; Costigan, K. R.; Munoz-Esparza, D.

2014-12-01

The Los Alamos National Laboratory is conducting a research project to understand the physical mechanisms behind the Las Conchas Fire that occurred in Santa Fe National Forest near Los Alamos, New Mexico on June 26, 2011. Between 8 pm on June 26 and 3 am on June 27, the fire grew from 8,000 to 43,000 acres, spreading downhill in sparse fuels and lighter winds than were present during the first several hours of the fire. Fire behavior experts and fire management officers expected the fire to reach 9,000 to 12,000 acres by sunrise due to the anticipated burning conditions, but it actually increased 440% in size before 3 am, surprising everyone. One viable hypothesis was suggested for this baffling fire behavior: a partial collapse of the soot-laden pyrocumulus column (pyro-cu) that towered above the fire, causing a sustained density current carrying fire at high speed. Moreover, another mechanism has been suggested recently that could have significantly affected the fire characteristics around mountainous regions, such as Jemez Mountains near Los Alamos: the drastic changes in the speed, direction, and gustiness of the winds due to the development of mountain waves. The present research tests these hypotheses and attempts to decipher the combination of environmental conditions, due to pyro-cu and mountain wave interactions, and fire behavior dynamics associated with this anomalous wildfire event. Preliminary results from WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) and HIGRAD (High-GRADient model developed at LANL) simulations suggest that these two mechanisms may need to be taken into account in order to fully understand and prepare for atypical wildfire behavior in regions with complex topography. It is possible that the Las Conchas Fire could have directly affected the nearby Los Alamos National Laboratory if the fire broke out concurrently with both pyro-cu and strong mountain waves along the upstream of the Laboratory. This research also addresses its implications for the management as well as the research of wildfire in that, in order to prepare for potential wildfire, the topography of the surrounding region as well as the region of importance itself should be taken into account.

Monitoring Trends and Burn Severity (MTBS): Monitoring wildfire activity for the past quarter century using landsat data

Treesearch

Mark Finco; Brad Quayle; Yuan Zhang; Jennifer Lecker; Kevin A. Megown; C. Kenneth Brewer

2012-01-01

The Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project is mapping the extent, size, and severity of all large fires greater than 1,000 acres in the west and 500 acres in the east over the conterminous United States (CONUS), Alaska, and Hawaii. In 2012 the project reached a milestone, completing the mapping for all fires between 1984 and 2010. The MTBS project produces...

Future projections of fire danger in Brazilian biomes in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libonati, Renata; Silva, Patrícia; DaCamara, Carlos; Bastos, Ana

2016-04-01

In the global context, Brazil is one of the regions more severely affected by fire occurrences, with important consequences in the global CO2 balance, the state of the Amazon forest and the ecological diversity of the region. Brazil is also one of the few regions experiencing a raise in annual mean temperature above 2.5o during the 20th century, which may further increase between 2o and 7o until 2100 and, likely, be accompanied by a decrease in precipitation [1]. As the fire occurrence and severity largely depends on these two variables, it is worth assessing the evolution of fire danger for the coming decades. In order to obtain a detailed characterization of the future fire patterns in the different biomes of Brazil, we use outputs from a regional-downscaling of the EC-Earth climate model at 0.44 degrees spatial resolution for two future scenarios, an intermediate (RCP4.5) and a more severe (RCP8.5) one. We use a fire danger index specifically developed for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the IFR from INPE. This index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We find a systematic increase of the days with critical fire risk, which is more pronounced in RCP8.5 and mostly affects months when fire activity takes place. Temperature increase is the most determinant factor for the increase in fire danger in the dry regions of savannah and shrubland, a result to be expected as fuel is already very dry. [1] Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Near-field emission profiling of tropical forest and Cerrado fires in Brazil during SAMBBA 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgson, Amy K.; Morgan, William T.; O'Shea, Sebastian; Bauguitte, Stéphane; Allan, James D.; Darbyshire, Eoghan; Flynn, Michael J.; Liu, Dantong; Lee, James; Johnson, Ben; Haywood, Jim M.; Longo, Karla M.; Artaxo, Paulo E.; Coe, Hugh

2018-04-01

We profile trace gas and particulate emissions from near-field airborne measurements of discrete smoke plumes in Brazil during the 2012 biomass burning season. The South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) Project conducted during September and October 2012 sampled across two distinct fire regimes prevalent in the Amazon Basin. Combined measurements from a Compact Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (C-ToF-AMS) and a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) are reported for the first time in a tropical biomass burning environment. Emissions from a mostly smouldering tropical forest wildfire in Rondônia state and numerous smaller flaming Cerrado fires in Tocantins state are presented. While the Cerrado fires appear to be representative of typical fire conditions in the existing literature, the tropical forest wildfire likely represents a more extreme example of biomass burning with a bias towards mostly smouldering emissions. We determined fire-integrated modified combustion efficiencies, emission ratios and emission factors for trace gas and particulate components for these two fire types, alongside aerosol microphysical properties. Seven times more black carbon was emitted from the Cerrado fires per unit of fuel combustion (EFBC of 0.13 ± 0.04 g kg-1) compared to the tropical forest fire (EFBC of 0.019 ± 0.006 g kg-1), and more than 6 times the amount of organic aerosol was emitted from the tropical forest fire per unit of fuel combustion (EFOM of 8.00 ± 2.53 g kg-1, EFOC of 5.00 ± 1.58 g kg-1) compared to the Cerrado fires (EFOM of 1.31 ± 0.42 g kg-1, EFOC of 0.82 ± 0.26 g kg-1). Particulate-phase species emitted from the fires sampled are generally lower than those reported in previous studies and in emission inventories, which is likely a combination of differences in fire combustion efficiency and fuel mixture, along with different measurement techniques. Previous modelling studies focussed on the biomass burning season in tropical South America have required significant scaling up of emissions to reproduce in situ and satellite aerosol concentrations over the region. Our results do not indicate that emission factors used in inventories are biased low, which could be one potential cause of the reported underestimates in modelling studies. This study supplements and updates trace gas and particulate emission factors for fire-type-specific biomass burning in Brazil for use in weather and climate models. The study illustrates that initial fire conditions can result in substantial differences in terms of their emitted chemical components, which can potentially perturb the Earth system.

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western United States (US) in recent decades has contributed to widespread forest mortality, carbon emissions, periods of degraded air quality, and substantial fire suppression expenditures. The increase in forest fire activity has likely been enabled by a number of factors including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, changes in suppression policies, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western US. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit have significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades. Comparing observational climate records to records recalculated after removal of modeled anthropogenic trends, we find that anthropogenic climate change accounted for approximately 55% of observed increases in the eight-metric mean fuel aridity during 1979-2015 across western US forests. This implicates anthropogenic climate change as an important driver of observed increases in fuel aridity, and also highlights the importance of natural multi-decadal climate variability in influencing trends in forest fire potential on the timescales of human lives. Based on a very strong (R2 = 0.76) and mechanistically reasonable relationship between interannual variability in the eight-metric mean fuel aridity and forest-fire area in the western US, we estimate that anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha (95% confidence range: 2.7-6.5 million ha) of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the total forest fire area expected in the absence of anthropogenic climate change. The relationship between annual forest fire area and fuel aridity is exponential and the proportion of total forest area burned in a given year has grown rapidly over the past 32 years. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a chronic driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so where fuels are not limiting.

Trends in fire risk and burned area in Brazil in the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, P.; Bastos, A.; DaCamara, C.; Libonati, R.

2016-12-01

Fire has a significant contribution to the global greenhouse gas emissions and vast ecological and climatic impacts. Worldwide, Brazil is one of the areas most affected by fire, which highly influences the state of the vegetation cover, the ecological diversity of the region and has significant consequences to the global CO2 balance [1]. Hence, with the increasing evidence of human induced climate change, it becomes essential to understand the present and future trends of fire risk in Brazil. Although a large number of fires in Brazil are anthropogenic, it has been shown that the burned area is mainly controlled by meteorological conditions [2], therefore being partially determined by fire risk. In this study we use a fire danger index specifically tailored for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the MFDI developed by INPE, to assess the patterns and trends of fire risk in Brazil. The index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We test the sensitivity of the index to different climate reanalyses and evaluate the trends in fire risk in Brazil during the past four decades for different biomes. We further assess the link between the calculated fire risk and observed fire occurrence and burned area. Finally, we compare the results with fire risk simulated by a regional climate model (RCA4 forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX) in order to evaluate its suitability for future projections of fire risk and burned area. [1] Bowman, D. M. et al. Fire in the earth system. Science, v. 324, p. 481-484, 24 apr. 2009. [2] Libonati, R. et al. An Algorithm for Burned Area Detection in the Brazilian Cerrado Using 4 μm MODIS Imagery. Remote Sensing, v. 7, p. 15782-15803, 2015.

Science in 60 – Tabletop Fire Prediction

ScienceCinema

Cary, Lyle

2018-01-16

At the Interagency Fire Center at Los Alamos National Laboratory, experts rely on the state-of-the-art Simtable to help them predict the unpredictable. With algorithms that include camera-based object-tracking and projection developed by the Laboratory, the emergency operations team can simulate a wildland fire spreading across any terrain. The table system, developed and marketed by Simtable, a Santa Fe, N.M., company, takes into account weather, vegetation and fuel conditions. The project also received funding from the LANS Venture Acceleration Fund to improve the user interface.

Science in 60 – Tabletop Fire Prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cary, Lyle

At the Interagency Fire Center at Los Alamos National Laboratory, experts rely on the state-of-the-art Simtable to help them predict the unpredictable. With algorithms that include camera-based object-tracking and projection developed by the Laboratory, the emergency operations team can simulate a wildland fire spreading across any terrain. The table system, developed and marketed by Simtable, a Santa Fe, N.M., company, takes into account weather, vegetation and fuel conditions. The project also received funding from the LANS Venture Acceleration Fund to improve the user interface.

Understanding the effects of fire management practices on forest health: Implications for weeds and vegetation structure (Project INT-F-04-01) [Chapter 14

Treesearch

Anne E. Black; Peter Landres

2011-01-01

Current fire policy to restore ecosystem function and resiliency and reduce buildup of hazardous fuels implies a larger future role for fire (both natural and human ignitions) (USDA and USDOI 2000). Yet some fire management (such as building fire line, spike camps, or heli-spots) potentially causes both short- and long-term impacts to forest health. In the short run,...

Terrestrial-based lidar beach topography of Fire Island, New York, June 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brenner, Owen T.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Lee, Kathryn G.; Kimbrow, Dustin R.

2016-02-19

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) in Florida and the USGS Lower Mississippi-Gulf Water Science Center (LMG WSC) in Montgomery, Alabama, collaborated to gather alongshore terrestrial-based lidar beach elevation data at Fire Island, New York. This high-resolution elevation dataset was collected on June 11, 2014, to characterize beach topography and document ongoing beach evolution and recovery, and is part of the ongoing beach monitoring within the Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Project GS2-2B. This USGS data series includes the resulting processed elevation point data (xyz) and an interpolated digital elevation model (DEM).

WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

Treesearch

Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

2012-01-01

A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

First steps towards a novel European forest fuel classification systems and a European forest fuel map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebastián-López, Ana; Urbieta, Itziar R.; de La Fuente Blanco, David; García Mateo, Rubén.; Moreno Rodríguez, José Manuel; Eftichidis, George; Varela, Vassiliki; Cesari, Véronique; Mário Ribeiro, Luís.; Viegas, Domingos Xavier; Lanorte, Antonio; Lasaponara, Rosa; Camia, Andrea; San Miguel, Jesús

2010-05-01

Forest fires burn at the local scale, but their massive occurrence causes effects which have global dimensions. Furthermore climate change projections associate global warming to a significant increase in forest fire activity. Warmer and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency, duration and intensity of fires, and greater amounts of fuel associated with forest areas in decline may cause more frequent and larger fires. These facts create the need for establishing strategies for harmonizing fire danger rating, fire risk assessment, and fire prevention policies at a supranational level. Albeit forest fires are a permanent threat for European ecosystems, particularly in the south, there is no commonly accepted fuel classification scheme adopted for operational use by the Member States of the EU. The European Commission (EC) DG Environment and JRC have launched a set of studies following a resolution of the European Parliament on the further development and enhancement of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), the EC focal point for information on forest fires in Europe. One of the studies that are being funded is the FUELMAP project. The objective of FUELMAP is to develop a novel fuel classification system and a new European fuel map that will be based on a comprehensive classification of fuel complexes representing the various vegetation types across EU27, plus Switzerland, Croatia and Turkey. The overall work plan is grounded on a throughout knowledge of European forest landscapes and the key features of fuel situations occurring in natural areas. The method makes extended use of existing databases available in the Member States and European Institutions. Specifically, our proposed classification combines relevant information on ecoregions, land cover and uses, potential and actual vegetation, and stand structure. GIS techniques are used in order to define the geographic extent of the classification units and for identifying the main driving factors that determine the spatial distribution of the resulting fuel complexes. Furthermore, relevant parameters influencing fire potential and effects such as fuel load, live/dead ratio, and fuels' size classes' distribution are considered. National- and local-scale datasets (vegetation maps, forest inventory plots, fuel maps...) will be also studied and compared. Local ground- truth data will be used to assess the accuracy of the classification and will contribute, along with literature values and experts' opinion, to characterize the fuels' physical properties. The resulting classification aims to support the characterization of the fire potential, serve as input in fire emissions models, and be used to assess the expected impact of fire in the European landscapes. The work plan includes the development of a GIS software tool to automatically update the fuel map from modified (up-to-date) input data layers. The fuel map of Europe is mainly intended to support the implementation of the EFFIS modules that can be enhanced by the use of improved information on forest fuel properties and spatial distribution, though it is also envisaged that the results of the project might be useful for other relevant applications at different spatial scales. To this purpose, the classification will be designed with a hierarchical and flexible structure for describing heterogeneous landscapes. The work is on-going and this presentation shows the first results towards the envisaged European fuel map.

Assessment of risk due to the use of carbon fiber composites in commercial and general aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiksel, J.; Rosenfield, D.; Kalelkar, A.

1980-01-01

The development of a national risk profile for the total annual aircraft losses due to carbon fiber composite (CFC) usage through 1993 is discussed. The profile was developed using separate simulation methods for commercial and general aviation aircraft. A Monte Carlo method which was used to assess the risk in commercial aircraft is described. The method projects the potential usage of CFC through 1993, investigates the incidence of commercial aircraft fires, models the potential release and dispersion of carbon fibers from a fire, and estimates potential economic losses due to CFC damaging electronic equipment. The simulation model for the general aviation aircraft is described. The model emphasizes variations in facility locations and release conditions, estimates distribution of CFC released in general aviation aircraft accidents, and tabulates the failure probabilities and aggregate economic losses in the accidents.

Tips, techniques and suggestions for improving learning from escaped prescribed fire reviews

Treesearch

Anne Black; Dave Thomas; Jennifer Ziegler; Jim Saveland

2012-01-01

In 2011, we held five 2-day workshops at various locations around the US as part of a Joint Fire Science Program project to understand 'learning from escaped prescribed fire reviews'. Each workshop drew an interagency audience with representation from all facets of fire management, from ground personnel to local line officers, regional, and national positions...

Prescribed fire effects on the herbaceous layer of mixed-oak forests

Treesearch

Todd F. Hutchinson; Ralph E.J. Boerner; Steve Sutherland; Elaine Kennedy Sutherland; Marilyn Ortt; Louis R. Iverson; Louis R. Iverson

2005-01-01

In 1994, a multidisciplinary project was established to study the effects of prescribed fire on oak forests in southern Ohio. Here we describe the herbaceous layer response to fires over a 5-year period. In four study sites, treatments imposed were unburned, periodic (1996 and 1999), and annual (1996-1999) fires. Sample plots (n = 108) were stratified by an integrated...

Tips, techniques, and suggestions for improving learning from escaped prescribed fire reviews (Poster Abstract)

Treesearch

Anne Black; Dave Thomas; Jennifer Ziegler; Jim Saveland

2012-01-01

In 2011, we held five 2-day workshops at various locations around the US as part of a Joint Fire Science Program project to understand 'learning from escaped prescribed fire reviews'. Each workshop drew an interagency audience with representation from all facets of fire management, from ground personnel to local line officers, regional, and national positions...

Citizens in the Crosshairs: Ready, Aim, Hold Your Fire?

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-21

Citizens in the Crosshairs: Ready, Aim, Hold Your Fire ? by Colonel Ian G. Corey United States Army United States...SUBTITLE Citizens in the Crosshairs: Ready, Aim, Hold Your Fire ? 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6...YOUR FIRE ? by Colonel Ian G. Corey United States Army Professor Daniel Y. Coulter Project Adviser This SRP

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements.

PubMed

Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

2017-02-01

Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

Field modeling of heat transfer in atrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedryshkin, Oleg; Gravit, Marina; Bushuev, Nikolay

2017-10-01

The results of calculating fire risk are an important element in the system of modern fire safety assessment. The article reviews the work on the mathematical modeling of fire in the room. A comparison of different calculation models in the programs of fire risk assessment and fire modeling was performed. The results of full-scale fire tests and fire modeling in the FDS program are presented. The analysis of empirical and theoretical data on fire modeling is made, a conclusion is made about the modeling accuracy in the FDS program.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

PubMed Central

Williams, A. Park

2016-01-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting. PMID:27791053

Support for Astronaut's View of Mexican/ Central American Fires and on-Line Earth Observations Training Manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaminski, Charles F., Jr.

1999-01-01

A small project to compile remote sensing and in-site data to review the processes leading to the May 1998 Mexican/Central American fires was undertaken. A web page based on this project was assembled. The second project initiated involved an interactive and on-line program that will replace the paper version of the Earth Observations Preflight Training Manual. Technical support was provided to Prof. Marvin Glasser as needed.

Critical path method applied to research project planning: Fire Economics Evaluation System (FEES)

Treesearch

Earl B. Anderson; R. Stanton Hales

1986-01-01

The critical path method (CPM) of network analysis (a) depicts precedence among the many activities in a project by a network diagram; (b) identifies critical activities by calculating their starting, finishing, and float times; and (c) displays possible schedules by constructing time charts. CPM was applied to the development of the Forest Service's Fire...

Fire. Youth Training Scheme. Core Exemplar Work Based Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Further Education Staff Coll., Blagdon (England).

This trainer's guide is intended to assist supervisors of work-based career training projects in teaching students the basics of fire prevention in the kitchen. The guide is one in a series of core curriculum modules that is intended for use in combination on- and off-the-job programs to familiarize youth with the skills, knowledge, and attitudes…

Fire Weather Products for Public and Emergency Use: Extending Professional Resources to the Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, M. A.; Schranz, S.; Kriederman, L.

2012-12-01

Large wildfires require significant resources to combat, including dedicated meteorological support to provide accurate and timely forecasts to assist incident commanders in making decisions for logistical and tactical firefighting operations. Smaller fires often require the same capabilities for understanding fire and the fire weather environment, but access to needed resources and tools is often limited due to technical, training, or education limitations. Providing fire weather information and training to incident commanders for smaller wildfires should prove to enhance firefighting capabilities and improve safety for both firefighters and for the public as well. One of the premier tools used to support fire weather forecasting for the largest wildfires is the FX-Net product, a thin-client version of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System used by NWS incident meteorologists (IMETs) deployed to large wildfires. We present results from an ongoing project to extend the sophisticated products available from FX-Net to more accessible and mobile software platforms, such as Google Earth. The project involves input from IMETs and fire commanders to identify the key parameters used in fighting wildfires, and involves a large training component for fire responders to utilize simplified products to improve understanding of fire weather in the context of firefighting operations.

The FIRE Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcdougal, D.

1986-01-01

The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project's (ISCCP) First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) project is a program to validate the cloud parameters derived by the ISCCP. The 4- to 5-year program will concentrate on clouds in the continental United States, particularly cirrus and marine stratocumulus clouds. As part of the validation process, FIRE will acquire satellite, aircraft, balloon, and surface data. These data (except for the satellite data) will be amalgamated into one common data set. Plans are to generate a standardized format structure for use in the PCDS. Data collection will begin in April 1986, but will not be available to the general scientific community until 1987 or 1988. Additional pertinent data sets already reside in the PCDS. Other qualifications of the PCDS for use in this validation program were enumerated.

Figures of Merit for Aeronautics Programs and Addition to NASA LARC Fire Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harper, Belinda M.

1995-01-01

This report accounts details of two research projects for the Langley Aerospace Research Summer Scholars (LARSS) program. The first project, with the Office of Mission Assurance, involved subjectively predicting the probable success of two aeronautics programs by means of a tool called a Figure of Merit. The figure of merit bases program success on the quality and reliability of the following factors: parts, complexity of research, quality programs, hazards elimination, and single point failures elimination. The second project, for the Office of Safety and Facilities Assurance, required planning, layouts, and source seeking for an addition to the fire house. Forecasted changes in facility layout necessitate this addition which will serve as housing for the fire fighters.

The Role of Environmental Driving Factors in Historical and Projected Carbon Dynamics of Wetland Ecosystems in Alaska.

PubMed

Lyu, Zhou; Genet, Hélène; He, Yujie; Zhuang, Qianlai; McGuire, A David; Bennett, Alec; Breen, Amy; Clein, Joy; Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Johnson, Kristofer; Kurkowski, Tom; Pastick, Neal J; Rupp, T Scott; Wylie, Bruce K; Zhu, Zhiliang

2018-05-29

Wetlands are critical terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska, covering ~177,000 km 2 , an area greater than all the wetlands in the remainder of the United States. To assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, and fire regime on carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of Alaska, a modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used. Spatially explicit simulations were conducted at 1 km-resolution for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). Simulations estimated that wetland ecosystems of Alaska lost 175 Tg carbon (C) in the historical period. Ecosystem C storage in 2009 was 5556 Tg, with 89% of the C stored in soils. The estimated loss of C as CO 2 and biogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions resulted in wetlands of Alaska increasing the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. Simulations for the projection period were conducted for six climate change scenarios constructed from two climate models forced under three CO 2 emission scenarios. Ecosystem C storage averaged among climate scenarios increased 3.94 TgC/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 to 4.42 TgC/yr. These increases were driven primarily by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than losses from increased decomposition and fire. The NPP increase was driven by CO 2 fertilization (~5% per 100 ppmv increase) and by increases in air temperature (~1% per °C increase). Increases in air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in biogenic CH 4 emissions among the simulations (~15% per °C increase). Ecosystem CO 2 sequestration offset the increase in CH 4 emissions during the 21 st century to decrease the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. However, beyond 2100, we expect that this forcing will ultimately increase as wetland ecosystems transition from being a sink to a source of atmospheric CO 2 because of (1) decreasing sensitivity of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO 2 , (2) increasing availability of soil C for decomposition as permafrost thaws, and (3) continued positive sensitivity of biogenic CH 4 emissions to increases in soil temperature. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Spacecraft Fire Suppression: Testing and Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbud-Madrid, Angel; McKinnon, J. Thomas; Delplanque, Jean-Pierre; Kailasanath, Kazhikathra; Gokoglu, Suleyman; Wu, Ming-Shin

2004-01-01

The objective of this project is the testing and evaluation of the effectiveness of a variety of fire suppressants and fire-response techniques that will be used in the next generation of spacecraft (Crew Exploration Vehicle, CEV) and planetary habitats. From the many lessons learned in the last 40 years of space travel, there is common agreement in the spacecraft fire safety community that a new fire suppression system will be needed for the various types of fire threats anticipated in new space vehicles and habitats. To date, there is no single fire extinguishing system that can address all possible fire situations in a spacecraft in an effective, reliable, clean, and safe way. The testing conducted under this investigation will not only validate the various numerical models that are currently being developed, but it will provide new design standards on fire suppression that can then be applied to the next generation of spacecraft extinguishment systems. The test program will provide validation of scaling methods by conducting small, medium, and large scale fires. A variety of suppression methods will be tested, such as water mist, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen with single and multiple injection points and direct or distributed agent deployment. These injection methods cover the current ISS fire suppression method of a portable hand-held fire extinguisher spraying through a port in a rack and also next generation spacecraft units that may have a multi-point suppression delivery system built into the design. Consideration will be given to the need of a crew to clean-up the agent and recharge the extinguishers in flight in a long-duration mission. The fire suppression methods mentioned above will be used to extinguish several fire scenarios that have been identified as the most relevant to spaceflight, such as overheated wires, cable bundles, and circuit boards, as well as burning cloth and paper. Further testing will be conducted in which obstructions and ventilation will be added to represent actual spacecraft conditions (e.g., a series of cards in a card rack).

Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2016-01-01

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Large-Scale Simulation of the Effects of Climate Change on Runoff Erosion Following Extreme Wildfire Events Authors: Gould, Adam, Warren, Barber, Wagenbrenner, Robichaud, Wang, Cherkauer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, G.; Adam, J. C.; Barber, M. E.; Wagenbrenner, J. W.; Robichaud, P. R.; Wang, L.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2012-12-01

Across the western U.S., there is clear concern for increases in wildfire occurrence, severity, and post-fire runoff erosion due to projected climate changes. The aim of this study was to advance our capability to simulate post-fire runoff erosion at scales larger than a single hillslope to examine the relative contribution of sediment being released to larger streams and rivers in response to wildfire. We applied the Variable Capacity Infiltration-Water Erosion Prediction Project (VIC-WEPP), a newly-developed physically-based modeling framework that combines large-scale hydrology with hillslope-scale runoff erosion, over the Salmon River basin (SRB) in central Idaho. We selected the SRB for this study because of recent research that suggested that forest wildfires are likely contributing the majority of coarser sands that settle in downstream navigation channels and in reservoirs, causing adverse impacts to aquatic life, navigation, and flood storage. Using the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), burn intensity and severity maps show the regularity of wildfire occurrence in the SRB. These maps compare pre-fire images to next growing season images from the Landsat Thematic Mapper multispectral scanning sensor. Rather than implementing WEPP over all hillslopes within the SRB, we applied a representative hillslope approach. A monofractal scaling method downscales globally available 30 arc second digital elevation model (DEM) data to a 30 m resolution for simulations. This information determined the distribution of slope gradients within each VIC grid cell. This study applied VIC-WEPP over the 1979-2010 period and compared an ensemble of future climate simulations for the period of 2041-2070. For future scenarios, we only considered meteorological impacts on post-fire erosion and did not incorporate changes in future fire occurrence or severity. We ran scenarios for a variety of land cover and soil parameter sets, particularly those that relate to pre and post-fire characteristics, such as vegetative cover, interrill and rill erodibility factors, and saturated hydraulic conductivity. Evaluation of runoff erosion at experimental sites, observed by the U.S. Forest Service, involved using Disturbed WEPP which showed reasonable first post-fire year annual erosion predictions. We evaluated VIC-WEPP by comparing sediment observations downstream of the SRB with simulated yields for both pre and post-fire conditions. Generation of maps showing erosion over the SRB for each of the scenarios show specific areas within the SRB to be high, moderate, or low runoff-induced post-fire erosion regions. Our methodology will enable forest managers in the region to incorporate the impacts of changes in meteorological events on runoff erosion into their strategic management plans.

Emissions from Coal Fires and Their Impact on the Environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolker, Allan; Engle, Mark; Stracher, Glenn; Hower, James; Prakash, Anupma; Radke, Lawrence; ter Schure, Arnout; Heffern, Ed

2009-01-01

Self-ignited, naturally occurring coal fires and fires resulting from human activities persist for decades in underground coal mines, coal waste piles, and unmined coal beds. These uncontrolled coal fires occur in all coal-bearing parts of the world (Stracher, 2007) and pose multiple threats to the global environment because they emit greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane (CH4) - as well as mercury (Hg), carbon monoxide (CO), and other toxic substances (fig. 1). The contribution of coal fires to the global pool of atmospheric CO2 is little known but potentially significant. For China, the world's largest coal producer, it is estimated that anywhere between 10 million and 200 million metric tons (Mt) of coal reserves (about 0.5 to 10 percent of production) is consumed annually by coal fires or made inaccessible owing to fires that hinder mining operations (Rosema and others, 1999; Voigt and others, 2004). At this proportion of production, coal amounts lost to coal fires worldwide would be two to three times that for China. Assuming this coal has mercury concentrations similar to those in U.S. coals, a preliminary estimate of annual Hg emissions from coal fires worldwide is comparable in magnitude to the 48 tons of annual Hg emissions from all U.S. coal-fired power-generating stations combined (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2002). In the United States, the combined cost of coal-fire remediation projects, completed, budgeted, or projected by the U.S. Department of the Interior's Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement (OSM), exceeds $1 billion, with about 90% of that in two States - Pennsylvania and West Virginia (Office of Surface Mining Enforcement and Reclamation, 2008; fig. 2). Altogether, 15 States have combined cumulative OSM coal-fire project costs exceeding $1 million, with the greatest overall expense occurring in States where underground coal fires are predominant over surface fires, reflecting the greater cost of extinguishing underground fires (fig. 2) (see 'Controlling Coal Fires'). In this fact sheet we review how coal fires occur, how they can be detected by airborne and remote surveys, and, most importantly, the impact coal-fire emissions may have on the environment and human health. In addition, we describe recent efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and collaborators to measure fluxes of CO2, CO, CH4, and Hg, using groundbased portable detectors, and combining these approaches with airborne thermal imaging and CO2 measurements. The goal of this research is to develop approaches that can be extrapolated to large fires and to extrapolate results for individual fires in order to estimate the contribution of coal fires as a category of global emissions.

75 FR 5355 - Notice of Extension of Comment Period for NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-02

..., Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment AGENCY... 1019195), Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment... Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG)'' is available electronically under ADAMS Accession...

A Bullet Fired in Dry Water: An Investigative Activity to Learn Hydrodynamics Concepts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leitão, Ulisses Azevedo; dos Anjos Pinheiro da Silva, Antonio; Trindade do Nascimento, Natália Cristina; da Cruz Gervásio, Lilian Mara Benedita

2017-01-01

In this paper we report an investigative activity on hydrodynamics, in the context of an inquiry-based learning project. The aim is to analyse the experiment of a bullet shot underwater. Using "Tracker," a video analysing and modelling software, the displacement of the bullet was measured as function of time, processing a slow motion…

Integration of vegetation community spatial data into a prescribed fire planning process at Shenandoah National Park, Virginia (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, John A.; Mahan, Carolyn G.; Forder, Melissa

2017-01-01

Many eastern forest communities depend on fire for regeneration or are enhanced by fire as a restoration practice. However, the use of prescribed fire in the mesic forested environments and the densely populated regions of the eastern United States has been limited. The objective of our research was to develop a science-based approach to prioritizing the use of prescribed fire in appropriate forest types in the eastern United States based on a set of desired management outcomes. Through a process of expert elicitation and data analysis, we assessed and integrated recent vegetation community mapping results along with other available spatial data layers into a spatial prioritization tool for prescribed fire planning at Shenandoah National Park (Virginia, USA). The integration of vegetation spatial data allowed for development of per-pixel priority rankings and exclusion areas enabling precise targeting of fire management activities on the ground, as well as a park-wide ranking of fire planning compartments. We demonstrate the use and evaluation of this approach through implementation and monitoring of a prescribed burn and show that progress is being made toward desired conditions. Integration of spatial data into the fire planning process has served as a collaborative tool for the implementation of prescribed fire projects, which assures projects will be planned in the most appropriate areas to meet objectives that are supported by current science.

Operation and Development Status of the Spacecraft Fire Experiments (Saffire)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David L.

2016-01-01

Since 2012, a series of Spacecraft Fire Experiments (Saffire) have been under development by the Spacecraft Fire Safety Demonstration (SFS Demo) project, funded by NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Division. The overall objective of this project is to reduce the uncertainty and risk associated with the design of spacecraft fire safety systems for NASA's exploration missions. The approach to achieving this goal has been to define, develop, and conduct experiments that address gaps in spacecraft fire safety knowledge and capabilities identified by NASA's Fire Safety System Maturation Team. The Spacecraft Fire Experiments (Saffire-I, -II, and -III) are material flammability tests at length scales that are realistic for a spacecraft fire in low-gravity. The specific objectives of these three experiments are to (1) determine how rapidly a large scale fire grows in low-gravity and (2) investigate the low-g flammability limits compared to those obtained in NASA's normal gravity material flammability screening test. The experiments will be conducted in Orbital ATK's Cygnus vehicle after it has unberthed from the International Space Station. The tests will be fully automated with the data downlinked at the conclusion of the test before the Cygnus vehicle reenters the atmosphere. This paper discusses the status of the Saffire-I, II, and III experiments followed by a review of the fire safety technology gaps that are driving the development of objectives for the next series of experiments, Saffire-IV, V, and VI.

Implications of introducing realistic fire response traits in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, D.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

2013-12-01

Bark thickness is a key trait protecting woody plants against fire damage, while the ability to resprout is a trait that confers competitive advantage over non-resprouting individuals in fire-prone landscapes. Neither trait is well represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we describe a version of the Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX-Mv1) DGVM that incorporates both of these traits in a realistic way. From a synthesis of a large number of field studies, we show there is considerable innate variability in bark thickness between species within a plant-functional type (PFT). Furthermore, bark thickness is an adaptive trait at ecosystem level, increasing with fire frequency. We use the data to specify the range of bark thicknesses characteristic of each model PFT. We allow this distribution to change dynamically: thinner-barked trees are killed preferentially by fire, shifting the distribution of bark thicknesses represented in a model grid cell. We use the PFT-specific bark-thickness probability range for saplings during re-establishment. Since it is rare to destroy all trees in a grid cell, this treatment results in average bark thickness increasing with fire frequency and intensity. Resprouting is a prominent adaptation of temperate and tropical trees in fire-prone areas. The ability to resprout from above-ground tissue (apical or epicormic resprouting) results in the fastest recovery of total biomass after disturbance; resprouting from basal or below-ground meristems results in slower recovery, while non-resprouting species must regenerate from seed and therefore take the longest time to recover. Our analyses show that resprouting species have thicker bark than non-resprouting species. Investment in resprouting is accompanied by reduced efficacy of regeneration from seed. We introduce resprouting PFTs in LPX-Mv1 by specifying an appropriate range of bark thickness, allowing resprouters to survive fire and regenerate vegetatively in the next growing season, while regenerating from seed at 10% the rate of non-resprouters. Tests of LPX-Mv1 for Australia - a continent with a wide range of fire-adapted ecosystems - show that it produces a 33% improvement in the simulation of vegetation composition compared to the previous version of the model, with more realistic vegetation transitions from forests to woodland/savanna. It also produces a 19% improvement in the simulation of burnt area compared to the original model. Resprouting PFTs dominate tropical and temperate areas where the climate is semi-humid but are not common in very dry or very wet areas. Comparison with site-based observations of the abundance of resprouters indicate this is realistic. Ecosystems dominated by resprouters in the simulations recover to pre-fire levels of biomass within 5-7 years, much faster than ecosystems dominated by non-resprouters; again this is confirmed by our analyses of the observations. Simulations of the response to projected future climate change show that the incorporation of adaptive bark thickness and of resprouting has a significant effect on terrestrial carbon stocks in fire-affected areas.

Environmental Assessment for the Warren Station externally fired combined cycle demonstration project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-04-01

The proposed Penelec project is one of 5 projects for potential funding under the fifth solicitation under the Clean Coal Technology program. In Penelec, two existing boilers would be replaced at Warren Station, PA; the new unit would produce 73 MW(e) in a combined cycle mode (using both gas-fired and steam turbines). The project would fill the need for a full utility-size demonstration of externally fire combined cycle (EFCC) technology as the next step toward commercialization. This environmental assessment was prepared for compliance with NEPA; its purpose is to provide sufficient basis for determining whether to prepare an environmental impactmore » statement or to issue a finding of no significant impact. It is divided into the sections: purpose and need for proposed action; alternatives; brief description of affected environment; environmental consequences, including discussion of commercial operation beyond the demonstration period.« less

Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

2007-01-01

Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

Characterization of Oxy-combustion Impacts in Existing Coal-fired Boilers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Bradley; Davis, Kevin; Senior, Constance

Reaction Engineering International (REI) managed a team of experts from University of Utah, Siemens Energy, Praxair, Vattenfall AB, Sandia National Laboratories, Brigham Young University (BYU) and Corrosion Management Ltd. to perform multi-scale experiments, coupled with mechanism development, process modeling and CFD modeling, for both applied and fundamental investigations. The primary objective of this program was to acquire data and develop tools to characterize and predict impacts of CO{sub 2} flue gas recycle and burner feed design on flame characteristics (burnout, NO{sub x}, SO{sub x}, mercury and fine particle emissions, heat transfer) and operational concerns (fouling, slagging and corrosion) inherent inmore » the retrofit of existing coal-fired boilers for oxy-coal combustion. Experimental work was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories’ Entrained Flow Reactor, the University of Utah Industrial Combustion Research Facility, and Brigham Young University. Process modeling and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was performed at REI. Successful completion of the project objectives resulted in the following key deliverables: 1) Multi-scale test data from 0.1 kW bench-scale, 100 kW and 200 kW laboratory-scale, and 1 MW semi-industrial scale combustors that describe differences in flame characteristics, fouling, slagging and corrosion for coal combustion under air-firing and oxygen-firing conditions, including sensitivity to oxy-burner design and flue gas recycle composition. 2) Validated mechanisms developed from test data that describe fouling, slagging, waterwall corrosion, heat transfer, char burnout and sooting under coal oxy-combustion conditions. The mechanisms were presented in a form suitable for inclusion in CFD models or process models. 3) Principles to guide design of pilot-scale and full-scale coal oxy-firing systems and flue gas recycle configurations, such that boiler operational impacts from oxy-combustion retrofits are minimized. 4) Assessment of oxy-combustion impacts in two full-scale coal-fired utility boiler retrofits based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of air-fired and oxygen-fired operation. This research determined that it is technically feasible to retrofit the combustion system in an air-fired boiler for oxy-fired operation. The impacts of CO{sub 2} flue gas recycle and burner design on flame characteristics (burnout, NO{sub x}, SO{sub x}, mercury and fine particle emissions, heat transfer) and operational concerns (fouling, slagging and corrosion) were minimal, with the exception of high sulfur levels resulting from untreated flue gas recycle with medium and high-sulfur coals. This work focused on combustion in the radiant and convective sections of the boiler and did not address boiler system integration issues, plant efficiencies, impacts on downstream air pollution control devices, or CO{sub 2} capture and compression. The experimental data, oxy-firing system principles and oxy-combustion process mechanisms provided by this work can be used by electric utilities, boiler OEMs, equipment suppliers, design firms, software vendors, consultants and government agencies to assess retrofit applications of oxy-combustion technologies to existing boilers and to guide development of new designs.« less

Current status and future needs of the BehavePlus Fire Modeling System

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews

2014-01-01

The BehavePlus Fire Modeling System is among the most widely used systems for wildland fire prediction. It is designed for use in a range of tasks including wildfire behaviour prediction, prescribed fire planning, fire investigation, fuel hazard assessment, fire model understanding, communication and research. BehavePlus is based on mathematical models for fire...

Science You Can Use Bulletin: Seeing red: New tools for mapping and understanding fire severity

Treesearch

Sue Miller; Robert Keane; Penny Morgan; Pamela Sikkink; Eva Karau; Greg Dillon

2013-01-01

Large, severe fires are ecologically and socially important because they have lasting effects on vegetation and soils, can potentially threaten people and property, and can be costly to manage. The goals of the Fire Severity Mapping Project (FIRESEV), which covers lands in the continental western United States, are to understand where and why fires burn severely, and...

Fire Danger Rating: The next 20 Years

Treesearch

John E. Deeming

1987-01-01

For the next 10 years, few changes will be made to the fire-danger rating system. During that time, the focus will be on the automation of weather observing systems and the streamlining of the computation and display of ratings. The time horizon for projecting fire danger will be pushed to 30 days by the late 1990's. A close alignment of the fire-danger rating...

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

BehavePlus fire modeling system: Past, present, and future

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews

2007-01-01

Use of mathematical fire models to predict fire behavior and fire effects plays an important supporting role in wildland fire management. When used in conjunction with personal fire experience and a basic understanding of the fire models, predictions can be successfully applied to a range of fire management activities including wildfire behavior prediction, prescribed...

Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Butsic, Van; Bar-Massada, Avi; Keeley, Jon E.; Tracey, Jeff A.; Fisher, Robert N.

2016-01-01

Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely generalize to any place where high species richness overlaps with hazardous wildland vegetation.

Improving the Interoperability of Disaster Models: a Case Study of Proposing Fireml for Forest Fire Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, W.; Wang, F.; Meng, Q.; Li, Z.; Liu, B.; Zheng, X.

2018-04-01

This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

Application of Rapid Prototyping to the Investment Casting of Test Hardware (MSFC Center Director's Discretionary Fund Final Report, Project No. 98-08)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, K. G.; Wells, D.

2000-01-01

Investment casting masters of a selected propulsion hardware component, a fuel pump housing, were rapid prototyped on the several processes in-house, along with the new Z-Corp process acquired through this project. Also, tensile samples were prototyped and cast using the same significant parameters. The models were then shelled in-house using a commercial grade zircon-based slurry and stucco technique. Next, the shelled models were fired and cast by our in-house foundry contractor (IITRI), with NASA-23, a commonly used test hardware metal. The cast models are compared by their surface finish and overall appearance (i.e., the occurrence of pitting, warping, etc.), as well as dimensional accuracy.

Bathymetry of the Wilderness breach at Fire Island, New York, June 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brownell, Andrew T.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Spore, Nicholas J.; McNinch, Jesse E.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center in St. Petersburg, Florida, collaborated with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility in Duck, North Carolina, to collect shallow water bathymetric data of the Wilderness breach on Fire Island, New York, in June 2013. The breach formed in October 2012 during Hurricane Sandy, and the USGS is involved in a post-Sandy effort to map, monitor, and model the morphologic evolution of the breach as part of Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Project GS2-2B: Linking Coastal Vulnerability and Process, Fire Island. This publication includes a bathymetric dataset of the breach and the adjacent nearshore on the ocean side of the island. The objective of the data collection and analysis is to map the bathymetry of the primary breach channel, ebb shoal, and nearshore bar system.

Sherborne Missile Fire Frequency with Unconstraint Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Shaquan

2018-01-01

For the modeling problem of shipborne missile fire frequency, the fire frequency models with unconstant parameters were proposed, including maximum fire frequency models with unconstant parameters, and actual fire frequency models with unconstant parameters, which can be used to calculate the missile fire frequency with unconstant parameters.

Decreases in Soil Moisture and Organic Matter Quality Suppress Microbial Decomposition Following a Boreal Forest Fire

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holden, Sandra R.; Berhe, Asmeret A.; Treseder, Kathleen K.

Climate warming is projected to increase the frequency and severity of wildfires in boreal forests, and increased wildfire activity may alter the large soil carbon (C) stocks in boreal forests. Changes in boreal soil C stocks that result from increased wildfire activity will be regulated in part by the response of microbial decomposition to fire, but post-fire changes in microbial decomposition are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the response of microbial decomposition to a boreal forest fire in interior Alaska and test the mechanisms that control post-fire changes in microbial decomposition. We used a reciprocal transplant between a recently burnedmore » boreal forest stand and a late successional boreal forest stand to test how post-fire changes in abiotic conditions, soil organic matter (SOM) composition, and soil microbial communities influence microbial decomposition. We found that SOM decomposing at the burned site lost 30.9% less mass over two years than SOM decomposing at the unburned site, indicating that post-fire changes in abiotic conditions suppress microbial decomposition. Our results suggest that moisture availability is one abiotic factor that constrains microbial decomposition in recently burned forests. In addition, we observed that burned SOM decomposed more slowly than unburned SOM, but the exact nature of SOM changes in the recently burned stand are unclear. Finally, we found no evidence that post-fire changes in soil microbial community composition significantly affect decomposition. Taken together, our study has demonstrated that boreal forest fires can suppress microbial decomposition due to post-fire changes in abiotic factors and the composition of SOM. Models that predict the consequences of increased wildfires for C storage in boreal forests may increase their predictive power by incorporating the observed negative response of microbial decomposition to boreal wildfires.« less

Reconsidering rest following fire: Northern mixed-grass prairie is resilient to grazing following spring wildfire

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Current federal post-fire land management recommendations in the United States suggest that rangelands be rested from grazing for two growing seasons following fire to allow for proper recovery, despite the lack of empirical literature supporting this recommendation. This project was designed to de...

Radiant energy dosimeter for field use

Treesearch

A. Broido; A.W. McMasters

1967-01-01

Thermal radiation measurements in Project Flambeau fires involved a limited number of conventional radiometers located outside the fire periphery. A simple, cheap, easily-fabricated, light-weight, self-contained, rugged dosimeter was desired to withstand a hot fire environment, including a specific energy input of 5,000 cal cm -2, and to record...

24 CFR 232.565 - Maximum loan amount.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Fire Safety Equipment Eligible Security Instruments § 232.565 Maximum loan amount. The principal amount of the loan shall not exceed the lower of the Commissioner's estimate of the cost of the fire safety... Secretary of Health and Human Services and the Commissioner to enhance the fire safety of the project, and...

24 CFR 232.565 - Maximum loan amount.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Fire Safety Equipment Eligible Security Instruments § 232.565 Maximum loan amount. The principal amount of the loan shall not exceed the lower of the Commissioner's estimate of the cost of the fire safety... Secretary of Health and Human Services and the Commissioner to enhance the fire safety of the project, and...

24 CFR 232.565 - Maximum loan amount.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Fire Safety Equipment Eligible Security Instruments § 232.565 Maximum loan amount. The principal amount of the loan shall not exceed the lower of the Commissioner's estimate of the cost of the fire safety... Secretary of Health and Human Services and the Commissioner to enhance the fire safety of the project, and...

Sequentially switching cell assemblies in random inhibitory networks of spiking neurons in the striatum.

PubMed

Ponzi, Adam; Wickens, Jeff

2010-04-28

The striatum is composed of GABAergic medium spiny neurons with inhibitory collaterals forming a sparse random asymmetric network and receiving an excitatory glutamatergic cortical projection. Because the inhibitory collaterals are sparse and weak, their role in striatal network dynamics is puzzling. However, here we show by simulation of a striatal inhibitory network model composed of spiking neurons that cells form assemblies that fire in sequential coherent episodes and display complex identity-temporal spiking patterns even when cortical excitation is simply constant or fluctuating noisily. Strongly correlated large-scale firing rate fluctuations on slow behaviorally relevant timescales of hundreds of milliseconds are shown by members of the same assembly whereas members of different assemblies show strong negative correlation, and we show how randomly connected spiking networks can generate this activity. Cells display highly irregular spiking with high coefficients of variation, broadly distributed low firing rates, and interspike interval distributions that are consistent with exponentially tailed power laws. Although firing rates vary coherently on slow timescales, precise spiking synchronization is absent in general. Our model only requires the minimal but striatally realistic assumptions of sparse to intermediate random connectivity, weak inhibitory synapses, and sufficient cortical excitation so that some cells are depolarized above the firing threshold during up states. Our results are in good qualitative agreement with experimental studies, consistent with recently determined striatal anatomy and physiology, and support a new view of endogenously generated metastable state switching dynamics of the striatal network underlying its information processing operations.

Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Jason A.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.

2017-01-01

We present landscape simulation results contrasting effects of changing climates on forest vegetation and fire regimes in Yellowstone National Park, USA, by mid-21st century. We simulated potential changes to fire dynamics and forest characteristics under three future climate projections representing a range of potential future conditions using the FireBGCv2 model. Under the future climate scenarios with moderate warming (>2°C) and moderate increases in precipitation (3–5%), model simulations resulted in 1.2–4.2 times more burned area, decreases in forest cover (10–44%), and reductions in basal area (14–60%). In these same scenarios, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) decreased in basal area (18–41%), while Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) basal area increased (21–58%). Conversely, mild warming (<2°C) coupled with greater increases in precipitation (12–13%) suggested an increase in forest cover and basal area by mid-century, with spruce and subalpine fir increasing in abundance. Overall, we found changes in forest tree species compositions were caused by the climate-mediated changes in fire regime (56–315% increase in annual area burned). Simulated changes in forest composition and fire regime under warming climates portray a landscape that shifts from lodgepole pine to Douglas-fir caused by the interaction between the magnitude and seasonality of future climate changes, by climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of wildfires, and by tree species response.

Feasibility Study for an Air Force Environmental Model and Data Exchange. Volume 4. Appendix G. Model Review and Index-Air Multimedia and Other Models, Plus Data Bases.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-07-01

Analysis of trace contaminants project at ORNL. Medium applied to movement of heavy metals through a forested watershed. OAQPS has not reviewed...computer cartography and site design aids; management information systems for facility planning, construction and * operation; and a computer...4 (5) Comprehensive 4 (6) Spills/ Heavy Gas 5 b. Regional 7 c. Reactive Pollutants 7 d. Special Purpose 8 e. Rocket Firing 8 f. Summary of Models by

Communicating geohazard information for emergency responders, a case study from the UK.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banks, Vanessa; Cooper, Anthony

2016-04-01

SSS11.4/ESSI4.6/HS11.39/NH9.13 Communication of uncertain information in earth sciences: data, models and visualization Communicating geohazard information for emergency responders, a case study from the UK. Cooper, A. H.1, Banks, V.J.1, Cowup, P.2, Curness, J.3, Davis, R.4, Dawson, L3. and Gazzard, L.4 1 British Geological Survey, Keyworth, NG12 5GG, UK 2 London Fire Brigade, 169 Union Street, London, SE1 0LL, UK 3.Coventry University, Priory Street, Coventry, CV1 5FB, UK 4.Avon Fire and Rescue, Temple Back, Bristol, BS1 6EU, UK. In February 2013 a sinkhole opened beneath a Florida Home resulting in the loss of a life and demolition of the affected home. The resulting void was in the order of 15 m deep. Neighbouring homes also had to be demolished. Television footage of this unfortunate incident resonated with an Assistant Commissioner of the London Fire Brigade who questioned whether or not such a feature would be recognised in the UK and if so, how the emergency response would be managed. Stemming from this, the British Geological Survey was invited to work with the Chief Fire Officers Association Urban Search and Rescue working group on geohazards. The aim of this group was to develop national tactical operational guidance on geohazards that would form the basis for regional guidance and training. The project was addressed collaboratively providing opportunities for two students from the Coventry University Disaster Management course, that were on placements with Avon Fire and Rescue, to work with the BGS to develop the guidance. Key to the success of the project was an iterative approach to knowledge exchange with respect to firstly, the characterization of the geohazards, and the processes and uncertainties associated with them and secondly, with respect to emergency responders' needs and priorities. Effective communication was achieved through challenging and rationalising the geoscience language for the end user and through a series of customised illustrations that portray the geohazard and associated zoning for response management. This paper shows the value of BGS data in developing resilience through preparedness, describes the approach to this project and the key outcomes in terms of geohazard communication, as well as considering how the project may develop in the future.

Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.

2017-12-01

Fire is a fundamental Earth system process and the primary ecosystem disturbance on the global scale. It affects carbon and water cycles through its impact on terrestrial ecosystems, and at the same time, is regulated by weather and climate, vegetation characteristics, and, importantly, human ignition and efforts to suppress fires (i.e., the direct human effect on fire). Here, we utilize the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) to generate a quantitative understanding of the impacts on fire dynamics and associated carbon and water cycling that can be attributed to changes in human ignition and suppression over the 20th century. We find that the net impact of increases in human ignition and suppression significantly reduce the 20th century averaged global burned area by 38 Mha/yr. The reduction increases since 1920, rising to 103 Mha/yr less burned area at the end of the century. Land carbon gain is weakened by 17% over the 20th century, mainly due to increased human deforestation fires and associated escape fires (i.e., degradation fires) in the tropical humid forests, even though the decrease in burned area in many other regions due to human fire suppression acts to increase land carbon gain. The direct human effect on fire also weakens the 20th century upward trend of global runoff by 6%, and enhances the upward trend in global evaportranspiration since 1945 by 7%. In addition, the above impacts in densely populated, highly developed (if population density > 0.1 person/km2), or moderately populated and developed regions are of opposite sign to those in other regions. Our study suggests that particular attention should be paid to human deforestation and degradation fires in the tropical humid forests when reconstructing and projecting fire carbon emissions and net atmosphere-land carbon exchange and estimating resultant impacts of direct human effect on fire.

Evaluation of a post-fire tree mortality model for western US conifers

Treesearch

Sharon M. Hood; Charles W McHugh; Kevin C. Ryan; Elizabeth Reinhardt; Sheri L. Smith

2007-01-01

Accurately predicting fire-caused mortality is essential to developing prescribed fire burn plans and post-fire salvage marking guidelines. The mortality model included in the commonly used USA fire behaviour and effects models, the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), BehavePlus, and the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS), has not...

Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE): Modeling gaps and data needs

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu; Adam Kochanski; Kirk Baker; Ruddy Mell; Rodman Linn; Ronan Paugam; Jan Mandel; Aime Fournier; Mary Ann Jenkins; Scott Goodrick; Gary Achtemeier; Andrew Hudak; Matthew Dickson; Brian Potter; Craig Clements; Shawn Urbanski; Roger Ottmar; Narasimhan Larkin; Timothy Brown; Nancy French; Susan Prichard; Adam Watts; Derek McNamara

2017-01-01

Fire and smoke models are numerical tools for simulating fire behavior, smoke dynamics, and air quality impacts of wildland fires. Fire models are developed based on the fundamental chemistry and physics of combustion and fire spread or statistical analysis of experimental data (Sullivan 2009). They provide information on fire spread and fuel consumption for safe and...

The Sagebrush Steppe Treatment Evaluation Project (SageSTEP): a test of state-and-transition theory

Treesearch

James D. McIver; Mark Brunson; Steve C. Bunting; Jeanne Chambers; Nora Devoe; Paul Doescher; James Grace; Dale Johnson; Steve Knick; Richard Miller; Mike Pellant; Fred Pierson; David Pyke; Kim Rollins; Bruce Roundy; Eugene Schupp; Robin Tausch; David Turner

2010-01-01

The Sagebrush Steppe Treatment Evaluation Project (SageSTEP) is a comprehensive, integrated, long-term study that evaluates the ecological effects of fire and fire surrogate treatments designed to reduce fuel and to restore sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities of the Great Basin and surrounding areas. SageSTEP has several features that make it ideal for testing...

Mapping fire probability and severity in a Mediterranean area using different weather and fuel moisture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arca, B.; Salis, M.; Bacciu, V.; Duce, P.; Pellizzaro, G.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.

2009-04-01

Although in many countries lightning is the main cause of ignition, in the Mediterranean Basin the forest fires are predominantly ignited by arson, or by human negligence. The fire season peaks coincide with extreme weather conditions (mainly strong winds, hot temperatures, low atmospheric water vapour content) and high tourist presence. Many works reported that in the Mediterranean Basin the projected impacts of climate change will cause greater weather variability and extreme weather conditions, with drier and hotter summers and heat waves. At long-term scale, climate changes could affect the fuel load and the dead/live fuel ratio, and therefore could change the vegetation flammability. At short-time scale, the increase of extreme weather events could directly affect fuel water status, and it could increase large fire occurrence. In this context, detecting the areas characterized by both high probability of large fire occurrence and high fire severity could represent an important component of the fire management planning. In this work we compared several fire probability and severity maps (fire occurrence, rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length) obtained for a study area located in North Sardinia, Italy, using FlamMap simulator (USDA Forest Service, Missoula). FlamMap computes the potential fire behaviour characteristics over a defined landscape for given weather, wind and fuel moisture data. Different weather and fuel moisture scenarios were tested to predict the potential impact of climate changes on fire parameters. The study area, characterized by a mosaic of urban areas, protected areas, and other areas subject to anthropogenic disturbances, is mainly composed by fire-prone Mediterranean maquis. The input themes needed to run FlamMap were input as grid of 10 meters; the wind data, obtained using a computational fluid-dynamic model, were inserted as gridded file, with a resolution of 50 m. The analysis revealed high fire probability and severity in most of the areas, and therefore a high potential danger. The FlamMap outputs and the derived fire probability maps can be used in decision support systems for fire spread and behaviour and for fire danger assessment with actual and future fire regimes.

Permafrost as an additional driving factor for the extreme fire event in the boreal Baikal region in 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, M.; Thonicke, K.; Beer, C.; Cramer, W.; Bartalev, S.; Schmullius, C.

2012-04-01

Wildfires are a natural and important element in the functioning of boreal forests. However, in some years, fires with extreme spread and severity occur. Such severe fires degrade the forest, affect human values, emit huge amount of carbon and aerosols and alter the land surface albedo. Usually, wind, slope, and dry conditions have been recognized as factors determining fire spread. In the Baikal region, 127,000 km2 burned in 2003, while the annual average burned area is approx. 8100 km2. In average years, 16% of the burned area occurred in the continuous permafrost zone but in 2003, 33% of these burned areas coincide with the existence of permanently frozen grounds. Permafrost and the associated upper active layer, which thaws during summer and refreezes during winter, is an important supply for soil moisture in boreal ecosystems. This leads to the question if permafrost hydrology is a potential additional driving factor for extreme fire events in boreal forests. Using temperature and precipitation data, we calculated the Nesterov index as indicator for fire weather conditions. Further, we used satellite observations of burned area and surface moisture, a digital elevation model, a land cover and a permafrost map to evaluate drivers for the temporal dynamic and spatial variability of surface moisture conditions and burned area in spring 2003. On the basis of time series decomposition, we separated the effect of drivers for fire activity on different time scales. We next computed cross-correlations to identify potential time lags between weather conditions, surface moisture and fire activity. Finally, we assessed the predictive capability of different combinations of driving variables for surface moisture conditions and burned area using multivariate spatial-temporal regression models. The results from this study demonstrate that permafrost in larch-dominated ecosystems regulates the inter-annual variability of surface moisture and thus increases the inter-annual variability of burned area. The drought conditions in spring 2003 were accelerated by the presence of permafrost because less water was stored in the upper active layer from the dry previous summer 2002 and the permafrost table prevents vegetative water uptake from deeper layers. In contrast, weather conditions (precipitation anomaly, Nesterov index) are weaker predictors for the 2003 fire event. Our analysis advances the understanding of complex interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil on how feedback mechanisms can lead to extreme fire events. These findings emphasize the importance of a mechanistic coupling of soil thermodynamics, hydrology, and fire activity in earth system models for projecting climate change impacts over the next century.

Modeling the spatial distribution of forest crown biomass and effects on fire behavior with FUEL3D and WFDS

Treesearch

Russell A. Parsons; William Mell; Peter McCauley

2010-01-01

Crown fire poses challenges to fire managers and can endanger fire fighters. Understanding of how fire interacts with tree crowns is essential to informed decisions about crown fire. Current operational crown fire predictions in the United States assume homogeneous crown fuels. While a new class of research fire models, which model fire behavior with computational...

Guidelines of the Design of Electropyrotechnic Firing Circuit for Unmanned Flight and Ground Test Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzalez, Guillermo A.; Lucy, Melvin H.; Massie, Jeffrey J.

2013-01-01

The NASA Langley Research Center, Engineering Directorate, Electronic System Branch, is responsible for providing pyrotechnic support capabilities to Langley Research Center unmanned flight and ground test projects. These capabilities include device selection, procurement, testing, problem solving, firing system design, fabrication and testing; ground support equipment design, fabrication and testing; checkout procedures and procedure?s training to pyro technicians. This technical memorandum will serve as a guideline for the design, fabrication and testing of electropyrotechnic firing systems. The guidelines will discuss the entire process beginning with requirements definition and ending with development and execution.

Stair evacuation simulation based on cellular automata considering evacuees’ walk preferences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Ning; Zhang, Hui; Chen, Tao; Peter, B. Luh

2015-06-01

As a physical model, the cellular automata (CA) model is widely used in many areas, such as stair evacuation. However, existing CA models do not consider evacuees’ walk preferences nor psychological status, and the structure of the basic model is unapplicable for the stair structure. This paper is to improve the stair evacuation simulation by addressing these issues, and a new cellular automata model is established. Several evacuees’ walk preference and how evacuee’s psychology influences their behaviors are introduced into this model. Evacuees’ speeds will be influenced by these features. To validate this simulation, two fire drills held in two high-rise buildings are video-recorded. It is found that the simulation results are similar to the fire drill results. The structure of this model is simple, and it is easy to further develop and utilize in different buildings with various kinds of occupants. Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB719705) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91224008, 91024032, and 71373139).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kang, D. I.; Han, S. H.

A PSA analyst has been manually determining fire-induced component failure modes and modeling them into the PSA logics. These can be difficult and time-consuming tasks as they need much information and many events are to be modeled. KAERI has been developing the IPRO-ZONE (interface program for constructing zone effect table) to facilitate fire PSA works for identifying and modeling fire-induced component failure modes, and to construct a one top fire event PSA model. With the output of the IPRO-ZONE, the AIMS-PSA, and internal event one top PSA model, one top fire events PSA model is automatically constructed. The outputs ofmore » the IPRO-ZONE include information on fire zones/fire scenarios, fire propagation areas, equipment failure modes affected by a fire, internal PSA basic events corresponding to fire-induced equipment failure modes, and fire events to be modeled. This paper introduces the IPRO-ZONE, and its application results to fire PSA of Ulchin Unit 3 and SMART(System-integrated Modular Advanced Reactor). (authors)« less

24 CFR 232.515 - Refund of fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... FACILITIES Eligibility Requirements-Supplemental Loans To Finance Purchase and Installation of Fire Safety... that the installation of fire safety equipment for the project has been prevented because of...

24 CFR 232.515 - Refund of fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... FACILITIES Eligibility Requirements-Supplemental Loans To Finance Purchase and Installation of Fire Safety... that the installation of fire safety equipment for the project has been prevented because of...

24 CFR 232.515 - Refund of fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... FACILITIES Eligibility Requirements-Supplemental Loans To Finance Purchase and Installation of Fire Safety... that the installation of fire safety equipment for the project has been prevented because of...

A decision support system for water supply in watersheds with recurrent wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Regina; Fernandes, Luís; Pereira, Mário; Cortes, Rui; Pacheco, Fernando

2015-04-01

The Beça River basin (North of Portugal) is barely affected by anthropogenic pressures, namely by the harmful effects of industrialization, urbanization or intensive agriculture. However, this basin is subject to recurrent wildfires, which plays a major role on soil erosion and water quality deterioration. Wildfires are responsible for increasing the concentration of soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) that ultimately arise in the rivers and water reservoirs as a result of transport by rainfall. In this sense, the main aims of this study are threefold: (i) to assess the relationship between fire occurrence and P concentration in river water, (ii) to model the P and N concentrations in stream water at the basin and sub-basin scales, and (iii) to propose management guidelines for the protection of drinking water resources taking into account the local history on forest fires. This study includes morphological, hydrological and climatological characterization of the study area as well as the spatial-temporal distribution of the fire incidence in the basin. The rainfall-runoff and nutrient transport processes were performed respectively with Mike Hydro Basin and the ECO Lab. The data requirements for these analysis/tools includes: a digital elevation model, Corine Land Cover maps (for 1990, 2000 and 2006), cartography of burned areas (covering the period 1990 - 2013) and wildfire risk (assessed in 2011), daily records of temperature, precipitation and stream flow, measured at monitoring stations (during the 1990 - 2006 period). Obtained results reveals a maximum fire recurrence of 5 times during the study period (1990 - 2013) and robust exponential regression observed between burned area and wildfire risk (R2 > 0.9). The biophysical parameters contributes to 86% of the fire risk which suggest that burnt area in the Beça River basin is essentially triggered by natural causes. A total of 16,396 ha was burned between 1990 and 2013, corresponding to 47% of the basin area which was covered by scrubs (69%), forests (22%) and heterogeneous agricultural areas (9%). A close relationship was found between the concentration of phosphorus in river water and the occurrence of forest fires. The annual and monthly phosphorus concentrations are influenced by the burned area and the river flow discharge. However, the hydrologic conditions prevail in the sense that, for similar values of burnt area, the maximum phosphorous concentration is higher in dry than in wet years. In addition, the phosphorus concentrations in the water bodies exceeded the limits imposed by the National and European legislation for good ecological status, human consumption and multiple uses mostly in last years of the study period. The fire frequency is a key variable in the planning and management of water bodies within a fire-prone watershed. The impacts of wildfires on water quality may become periodical instead of occasional as a consequence of the reduced precipitation and increased fire frequency and intensity projected for the near future climate. This work was supported by national funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project PEst-OE/AGR/UI4033/2014 and by the project SUSTAINSYS: Environmental Sustainable Agro-Forestry Systems (NORTE-07-0124-FEDER-000044), financed by the North Portugal Regional Operational Programme (ON.2 - O Novo Norte), under the National Strategic Reference Framework (QREN), through the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER), as well as by National Funds (PIDDAC) through the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT/MEC).

EPRI/NRC-RES fire human reliability analysis guidelines.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Stuart R.; Cooper, Susan E.; Najafi, Bijan

2010-03-01

During the 1990s, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed methods for fire risk analysis to support its utility members in the preparation of responses to Generic Letter 88-20, Supplement 4, 'Individual Plant Examination - External Events' (IPEEE). This effort produced a Fire Risk Assessment methodology for operations at power that was used by the majority of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) in support of the IPEEE program and several NPPs overseas. Although these methods were acceptable for accomplishing the objectives of the IPEEE, EPRI and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recognized that they required upgrades to support currentmore » requirements for risk-informed, performance-based (RI/PB) applications. In 2001, EPRI and the USNRC's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) embarked on a cooperative project to improve the state-of-the-art in fire risk assessment to support a new risk-informed environment in fire protection. This project produced a consensus document, NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), entitled 'Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities' which addressed fire risk for at power operations. NUREG/CR-6850 developed high level guidance on the process for identification and inclusion of human failure events (HFEs) into the fire PRA (FPRA), and a methodology for assigning quantitative screening values to these HFEs. It outlined the initial considerations of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and related fire effects that may need to be addressed in developing best-estimate human error probabilities (HEPs). However, NUREG/CR-6850 did not describe a methodology to develop best-estimate HEPs given the PSFs and the fire-related effects. In 2007, EPRI and RES embarked on another cooperative project to develop explicit guidance for estimating HEPs for human failure events under fire generated conditions, building upon existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This document provides a methodology and guidance for conducting a fire HRA. This process includes identification and definition of post-fire human failure events, qualitative analysis, quantification, recovery, dependency, and uncertainty. This document provides three approaches to quantification: screening, scoping, and detailed HRA. Screening is based on the guidance in NUREG/CR-6850, with some additional guidance for scenarios with long time windows. Scoping is a new approach to quantification developed specifically to support the iterative nature of fire PRA quantification. Scoping is intended to provide less conservative HEPs than screening, but requires fewer resources than a detailed HRA analysis. For detailed HRA quantification, guidance has been developed on how to apply existing methods to assess post-fire fire HEPs.« less

The NASA/Baltimore Applications Project (BAP). Computer aided dispatch and communications system for the Baltimore Fire Department: A case study of urban technology application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, A. L.

1981-01-01

An engineer and a computer expert from Goddard Space Flight Center were assigned to provide technical assistance in the design and installation of a computer assisted system for dispatching and communicating with fire department personnel and equipment in Baltimore City. Primary contributions were in decision making and management processes. The project is analyzed from four perspectives: (1) fire service; (2) technology transfer; (3) public administration; and (5) innovation. The city benefitted substantially from the approach and competence of the NASA personnel. Given the proper conditions, there are distinct advantages in having a nearby Federal laboratory provide assistance to a city on a continuing basis, as is done in the Baltimore Applications Project.

Numerical Modelling by FLAC on Coal Fires in North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusat, D.; Drebenstedt, C.

2009-04-01

Coal fires occur in many countries all over the world (e.g. Australia, China, India, Indonesia, USA and Russia) in underground and on surface. In China the most coal fires occur especially in the North. Economical and environmental damages are the negative effects of the coal fires: coal fires induce open fractures and fissures within the seam and neighbouring rocks. So that these are the predominant pathways for oxygen flow and exhaust gases from a coal fire. All over northern China there are a large number of coal fires, which cause and estimated yearly coal loss of between 100 and 200 million tons ([1], [2], [3]). Spontaneous combustion is a very complicated process and is influenced by number of factors. The process is an exothermic reaction in which the heat generated is dissipated by conduction to the surrounding environment, by radiation, by convection to the ventilation flow, and in some cases by evaporation of moisture from the coal [4]. The coal fires are very serious in China, and the dangerous extent of spontaneous combustion is bad which occupies about 72.9% in mining coal seams. During coal mining in China, the coal fires of spontaneous combustion are quite severity. The dangerous of coal spontaneous combustion has been in 56% of state major coalmines [5]. The 2D and 3D-simulation models describing coal fire damages are strong tools to predict fractures and fissures, to estimate the risk of coal fire propagation into neighbouring seams, to test and evaluate coal fire fighting and prevention methods. The numerical simulations of the rock mechanical model were made with the software for geomechanical and geotechnical calculations, the programs FLAC and FLAC3D [6]. To fight again the coal fires, exist several fire fighting techniques. Water, slurries or liquefied nitrogen can be injected to cool down the coal or cut of air supply with the backfill and thereby extinct the fire. Air supply also can be cut of by covering the coal by soil or sealing of the coal mine with the backfill. A smaller fires can also be handled by taking out burning coal by bulldozing techniques described above are applicable to small fires, but they do not work well in extinction of large coal fires. References [1] http://www.coalfire.caf.dlr.de [2] Schalke, H.J.W.G.; Rosema, A.; Van Genderen, J.L. (1993): Environmental monitoring of coal fires in North China. Project Identification Mission Report. Report Remote Sensing Programme Board, Derft, the Netherlands. [3] Zhang, X.; Kroonenberg, S. B.; De Boer, C. B. (2004): Dating of coal fires in Xinjiang, north-west China. Terra Nova. Band 16, No 2, S. 68-74. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-3121.2004.00532.x [4] Deng Jun, Hou Shuang, Li Huirong, e.t.c (2006): Oxidation Mechanism at Initial Stage of a Simulated Coal Molecule with -CH2O-[J]. Journal of Changchun University of Science and Technology, 29(2), P. 84-87. [5] Deng, Jun (2008): Presentation. Chinese Researches and Practical Experiences on Controlling Underground Coal Fires. The 2nd Australia-China Symposium on Science, Technology and Education. 15-18 October 2008, Courtyard Marriott, Surfers Paradise Beach, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. [6] Itasca (2003): FLAC, Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua. Itasca Consultants Group, Inc., Minneapolis.

A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

2010-01-01

This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

The approach of the PREFER project to wildfire prevention and damage assessment in the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laneve, Giovanni; Fusilli, Lorenzo; Tampellini, Maria Lucia; Vimercati, Marco; Hirn, Barbara; Sebastian-Lopez, Ana; Diagourtas, Dimitri; Eftychidis, Georgios; Clandillon, Stephen; Caspard, Mathilde; Oliveira, Sandra; Lourenco, Luciano

2015-04-01

PREFER is a Copernicus Emergency project funded from the 2012 FP7 Space Work Programme, and it is aimed at developing products and services that will contribute to improve the European capacity to respond to the preparedness, prevention, and recovery management steps in the case of forest fire emergency cycle, with focus on the Mediterranean area. It is well known from the most recent reports on state of Europe's forests that the Mediterranean area is particularly affected by uncontrolled forest fires, with a number of negative consequences on ecosystems, such as desertification and soil erosion, and on the local economy. Most likely, the current risks of forest fires will be exacerbated by climate change. In particular, the climate of Southern Europe and the Mediterranean basin is projected to warm at a rate exceeding the global average. Wild fires will therefore remain the most serious threat to Southern European forests. In this situation, the need to collect better information and more knowledge concerning future risks of forest fires and fire prevention in the Mediterranean area is widely recognized to be a major urgent one. As part of the Copernicus programme (i.e. the European Earth Observation Programme), PREFER is based on advanced geo-information products using in particular the earth observation data acquired and developed in the frame of Copernicus. The objective of the PREFER project, started at the end of 2012, 8 partners (from Italy, Portugal, Spain, France and Greece) involved and three years schedule, is the design, development and demonstration of a pre-operational "end-to-end" information service, fully exploiting satellite sensors data and able to support prevention/ preparedness and recovery phases of the Forest Fires emergency cycle in the EU Mediterranean Region. The PREFER information is as general as to be usable in the different countries of the Mediterranean Region, and acts in full complement to already existing services, such as the EC JRC EFFIS System. This paper intends to provide a concise report about and major highlights and achievements of the PREFER project research and development phase, along with the first results of the demonstration activities and users' feedbacks.

The Role of Wildfire, Prescribed Fire, and Mountain Pine Beetle Infestations on the Population Dynamics of Black-Backed Woodpeckers in the Black Hills, South Dakota

PubMed Central

Rota, Christopher T.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Rumble, Mark A.; Lehman, Chad P.; Kesler, Dylan C.

2014-01-01

Wildfire and mountain pine beetle infestations are naturally occurring disturbances in western North American forests. Black-backed woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus) are emblematic of the role these disturbances play in creating wildlife habitat, since they are strongly associated with recently-killed forests. However, management practices aimed at reducing the economic impact of natural disturbances can result in habitat loss for this species. Although black-backed woodpeckers occupy habitats created by wildfire, prescribed fire, and mountain pine beetle infestations, the relative value of these habitats remains unknown. We studied habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probabilities and reproductive rates between April 2008 and August 2012 in the Black Hills, South Dakota. We estimated habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probability with Bayesian multi-state models and habitat-specific reproductive success with Bayesian nest survival models. We calculated asymptotic population growth rates from estimated demographic rates with matrix projection models. Adult and juvenile survival and nest success were highest in habitat created by summer wildfire, intermediate in MPB infestations, and lowest in habitat created by fall prescribed fire. Mean posterior distributions of population growth rates indicated growing populations in habitat created by summer wildfire and declining populations in fall prescribed fire and mountain pine beetle infestations. Our finding that population growth rates were positive only in habitat created by summer wildfire underscores the need to maintain early post-wildfire habitat across the landscape. The lower growth rates in fall prescribed fire and MPB infestations may be attributed to differences in predator communities and food resources relative to summer wildfire. PMID:24736502

The role of wildfire, prescribed fire, and mountain pine beetle infestations on the population dynamics of black-backed woodpeckers in the black hills, South Dakota.

PubMed

Rota, Christopher T; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Rumble, Mark A; Lehman, Chad P; Kesler, Dylan C

2014-01-01

Wildfire and mountain pine beetle infestations are naturally occurring disturbances in western North American forests. Black-backed woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus) are emblematic of the role these disturbances play in creating wildlife habitat, since they are strongly associated with recently-killed forests. However, management practices aimed at reducing the economic impact of natural disturbances can result in habitat loss for this species. Although black-backed woodpeckers occupy habitats created by wildfire, prescribed fire, and mountain pine beetle infestations, the relative value of these habitats remains unknown. We studied habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probabilities and reproductive rates between April 2008 and August 2012 in the Black Hills, South Dakota. We estimated habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probability with Bayesian multi-state models and habitat-specific reproductive success with Bayesian nest survival models. We calculated asymptotic population growth rates from estimated demographic rates with matrix projection models. Adult and juvenile survival and nest success were highest in habitat created by summer wildfire, intermediate in MPB infestations, and lowest in habitat created by fall prescribed fire. Mean posterior distributions of population growth rates indicated growing populations in habitat created by summer wildfire and declining populations in fall prescribed fire and mountain pine beetle infestations. Our finding that population growth rates were positive only in habitat created by summer wildfire underscores the need to maintain early post-wildfire habitat across the landscape. The lower growth rates in fall prescribed fire and MPB infestations may be attributed to differences in predator communities and food resources relative to summer wildfire.

SIDM on FIRE: hydrodynamical self-interacting dark matter simulations of low-mass dwarf galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robles, Victor H.; Bullock, James S.; Elbert, Oliver D.; Fitts, Alex; González-Samaniego, Alejandro; Boylan-Kolchin, Michael; Hopkins, Philip F.; Faucher-Giguère, Claude-André; Kereš, Dušan; Hayward, Christopher C.

2017-12-01

We compare a suite of four simulated dwarf galaxies formed in 1010 M⊙ haloes of collisionless cold dark matter (CDM) with galaxies simulated in the same haloes with an identical galaxy formation model but a non-zero cross-section for DM self-interactions. These cosmological zoom-in simulations are part of the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project and utilize the FIRE-2 model for hydrodynamics and galaxy formation physics. We find the stellar masses of the galaxies formed in self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) with σ/m = 1 cm2 g-1 are very similar to those in CDM (spanning M⋆ ≈ 105.7-7.0M⊙) and all runs lie on a similar stellar mass-size relation. The logarithmic DM density slope (α = d log ρ/d log r) in the central 250-500 pc remains steeper than α = -0.8 for the CDM-Hydro simulations with stellar mass M⋆ ∼ 106.6 M⊙ and core-like in the most massive galaxy. In contrast, every SIDM hydrodynamic simulation yields a flatter profile, with α > -0.4. Moreover, the central density profiles predicted in SIDM runs without baryons are similar to the SIDM runs that include FIRE-2 baryonic physics. Thus, SIDM appears to be much more robust to the inclusion of (potentially uncertain) baryonic physics than CDM on this mass scale, suggesting that SIDM will be easier to falsify than CDM using low-mass galaxies. Our FIRE simulations predict that galaxies less massive than M⋆ ≲ 3 × 106 M⊙ provide potentially ideal targets for discriminating models, with SIDM producing substantial cores in such tiny galaxies and CDM producing cusps.

Fire behavior modeling-a decision tool

Treesearch

Jack Cohen; Bill Bradshaw

1986-01-01

The usefulness of an analytical model as a fire management decision tool is determined by the correspondence of its descriptive capability to the specific decision context. Fire managers must determine the usefulness of fire models as a decision tool when applied to varied situations. Because the wildland fire phenomenon is complex, analytical fire spread models will...

Reforestation after the Fountain fire in northern California: an untold success story

Treesearch

Jianwei Zhang; Jeff Webster; Robert F. Powers; John Mills

2008-01-01

Forest fires have been burning ‘hot’ across the United States and particularly in the West recent years. So, too, will the debate on post-fire management strategies. In this paper, we present a successful reforestation project after a catastrophic fire in 1992. Sixteen years later, most lands are covered with vigorous young forest stands. These regenerated stands have...

Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach

Treesearch

Cassandra Johnson Gaither; N.C. Poudyal; S. Goodrick; J.M. Bowker; S. Malone; J. Gan

2011-01-01

The southeastern U.S. is one of the more wildland fire prone areas of the country and also contains some of the poorest or most socially vulnerable rural communities. Our project addresses wildland fire risk in this part of the U.S and its intersection with social vulnerability. We examine spatial association between high wildland fire prone areas which also rank high...

500 MW demonstration of advanced wall-fired combustion techniques for the reduction of nitrogen oxide emissions from coal-fired boilers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorge, J.N.; Larrimore, C.L.; Slatsky, M.D.

1997-12-31

This paper discusses the technical progress of a US Department of Energy Innovative Clean Coal Technology project demonstrating advanced wall-fired combustion techniques for the reduction of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from coal-fired boilers. The primary objectives of the demonstration is to determine the long-term NOx reduction performance of advanced overfire air (AOFA), low NOx burners (LNB), and advanced digital control optimization methodologies applied in a stepwise fashion to a 500 MW boiler. The focus of this paper is to report (1) on the installation of three on-line carbon-in-ash monitors and (2) the design and results to date from the advancedmore » digital control/optimization phase of the project.« less

DEVELOPMENT OF A VALIDATED MODEL FOR USE IN MINIMIZING NOx EMISSIONS AND MAXIMIZING CARBON UTILIZATION WHEN CO-FIRING BIOMASS WITH COAL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larry G. Felix; P. Vann Bush

2002-10-26

This is the eighth Quarterly Technical Report for DOE Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC26-00NT40895. A statement of the project objectives is included in the Introduction of this report. The final biomass co-firing test burn was conducted during this quarter. In this test (Test 14), up to 20% by weight dry switchgrass was comilled with Jim Walters No.7 mine coal and injected through the single-register burner. Jim Walters No.7 coal is a low-volatility, low-sulfur ({approx}0.7% S) Eastern bituminous coal. The results of this test are presented in this quarterly report. Progress has continued to be made in implementing a modeling approach tomore » combine reaction times and temperature distributions from computational fluid dynamic models of the pilot-scale combustion furnace with char burnout and chemical reaction kinetics to predict NO{sub x} emissions and unburned carbon levels in the furnace exhaust. The REI Configurable Fireside Simulator (CFS) is now in regular use. Presently, the CFS is being used to generate CFD calculations for completed tests with Powder River Basin coal and low-volatility (Jim Walters No.7 Mine) coal. Niksa Energy Associates will use the results of these CFD simulations to complete their validation of the NOx/LOI predictive model. Work has started on the project final report.« less