ERMiT: Estimating Post-Fire Erosion in Probabilistic Terms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierson, F. B.; Robichaud, P. R.; Elliot, W. J.; Hall, D. E.; Moffet, C. A.

2006-12-01

Mitigating the impact of post-wildfire runoff and erosion on life, property, and natural resources have cost the United States government tens of millions of dollars over the past decade. The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) is a web-based application that estimates erosion in probabilistic terms on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands. Unlike most erosion prediction models, ERMiT does not provide `average annual erosion rates;' rather, it provides a distribution of erosion rates with the likelihood of their occurrence. ERMiT combines rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity, soil properties, and ground cover to estimate Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model input parameter values. Based on 20 to 40 individual WEPP runs, ERMiT produces a distribution of rain event erosion rates with a probability of occurrence for each of five post-fire years. Over the 5 years of modeled recovery, the occurrence probability of the less erodible soil parameters is increased and the occurrence probability of the more erodible soil parameters is decreased. In addition, the occurrence probabilities and the four spatial arrangements of burn severity (arrangements of overland flow elements (OFE's)), are shifted toward lower burn severity with each year of recovery. These yearly adjustments are based on field measurements made through post-fire recovery periods. ERMiT also provides rain event erosion rate distributions for hillslopes that have been treated with seeding, straw mulch, straw wattles and contour-felled log erosion barriers. Such output can help managers make erosion mitigation treatment decisions based on the probability of high sediment yields occurring, the value of resources at risk for damage, cost, and other management considerations.

Western Spruce Budworm Outbreaks Did Not Increase Fire Risk over the Last Three Centuries: A Dendrochronological Analysis of Inter-Disturbance Synergism

PubMed Central

Flower, Aquila; G. Gavin, Daniel; Heyerdahl, Emily K.; Parsons, Russell A.; Cohn, Gregory M.

2014-01-01

Insect outbreaks are often assumed to increase the severity or probability of fire occurrence through increased fuel availability, while fires may in turn alter susceptibility of forests to subsequent insect outbreaks through changes in the spatial distribution of suitable host trees. However, little is actually known about the potential synergisms between these natural disturbances. Assessing inter-disturbance synergism is challenging due to the short length of historical records and the confounding influences of land use and climate changes on natural disturbance dynamics. We used dendrochronological methods to reconstruct defoliator outbreaks and fire occurrence at ten sites along a longitudinal transect running from central Oregon to western Montana. We assessed synergism between disturbance types, analyzed long-term changes in disturbance dynamics, and compared these disturbance histories with dendroclimatological moisture availability records to quantify the influence of moisture availability on disturbances. After approximately 1890, fires were largely absent and defoliator outbreaks became longer-lasting, more frequent, and more synchronous at our sites. Fires were more likely to occur during warm-dry years, while outbreaks were most likely to begin near the end of warm-dry periods. Our results show no discernible impact of defoliation events on subsequent fire risk. Any effect from the addition of fuels during defoliation events appears to be too small to detect given the overriding influence of climatic variability. We therefore propose that if there is any relationship between the two disturbances, it is a subtle synergistic relationship wherein climate determines the probability of occurrence of each disturbance type, and each disturbance type damps the severity, but does not alter the probability of occurrence, of the other disturbance type over long time scales. Although both disturbance types may increase in frequency or extent in response to future warming, our records show no precedent that western spruce budworm outbreaks will increase future fire risk. PMID:25526633

Western spruce budworm outbreaks did not increase fire risk over the last three centuries: a dendrochronological analysis of inter-disturbance synergism.

PubMed

Flower, Aquila; Gavin, Daniel G; Heyerdahl, Emily K; Parsons, Russell A; Cohn, Gregory M

2014-01-01

Insect outbreaks are often assumed to increase the severity or probability of fire occurrence through increased fuel availability, while fires may in turn alter susceptibility of forests to subsequent insect outbreaks through changes in the spatial distribution of suitable host trees. However, little is actually known about the potential synergisms between these natural disturbances. Assessing inter-disturbance synergism is challenging due to the short length of historical records and the confounding influences of land use and climate changes on natural disturbance dynamics. We used dendrochronological methods to reconstruct defoliator outbreaks and fire occurrence at ten sites along a longitudinal transect running from central Oregon to western Montana. We assessed synergism between disturbance types, analyzed long-term changes in disturbance dynamics, and compared these disturbance histories with dendroclimatological moisture availability records to quantify the influence of moisture availability on disturbances. After approximately 1890, fires were largely absent and defoliator outbreaks became longer-lasting, more frequent, and more synchronous at our sites. Fires were more likely to occur during warm-dry years, while outbreaks were most likely to begin near the end of warm-dry periods. Our results show no discernible impact of defoliation events on subsequent fire risk. Any effect from the addition of fuels during defoliation events appears to be too small to detect given the overriding influence of climatic variability. We therefore propose that if there is any relationship between the two disturbances, it is a subtle synergistic relationship wherein climate determines the probability of occurrence of each disturbance type, and each disturbance type damps the severity, but does not alter the probability of occurrence, of the other disturbance type over long time scales. Although both disturbance types may increase in frequency or extent in response to future warming, our records show no precedent that western spruce budworm outbreaks will increase future fire risk.

Land cover change interacts with drought severity to change fire regimes in Western Amazonia.

PubMed

Gutiérrez-Vélez, Víctor H; Uriarte, María; DeFries, Ruth; Pinedo-Vásquez, Miguel; Fernandes, Katia; Ceccato, Pietro; Baethgen, Walter; Padoch, Christine

Fire is becoming a pervasive driver of environmental change in Amazonia and is expected to intensify, given projected reductions in precipitation and forest cover. Understanding of the influence of post-deforestation land cover change on fires in Amazonia is limited, even though fires in cleared lands constitute a threat for ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. We used MODIS satellite data to map burned areas annually between 2001 and 2010. We then combined these maps with land cover and climate information to understand the influence of land cover change in cleared lands and dry-season severity on fire occurrence and spread in a focus area in the Peruvian Amazon. Fire occurrence, quantified as the probability of burning of individual 232-m spatial resolution MODIS pixels, was modeled as a function of the area of land cover types within each pixel, drought severity, and distance to roads. Fire spread, quantified as the number of pixels burned in 3 × 3 pixel windows around each focal burned pixel, was modeled as a function of land cover configuration and area, dry-season severity, and distance to roads. We found that vegetation regrowth and oil palm expansion are significantly correlated with fire occurrence, but that the magnitude and sign of the correlation depend on drought severity, successional stage of regrowing vegetation, and oil palm age. Burning probability increased with the area of nondegraded pastures, fallow, and young oil palm and decreased with larger extents of degraded pastures, secondary forests, and adult oil palm plantations. Drought severity had the strongest influence on fire occurrence, overriding the effectiveness of secondary forests, but not of adult plantations, to reduce fire occurrence in severely dry years. Overall, irregular and scattered land cover patches reduced fire spread but irregular and dispersed fallows and secondary forests increased fire spread during dry years. Results underscore the importance of land cover management for reducing fire proliferation in this landscape. Incentives for promoting natural regeneration and perennial crops in cleared lands might help to reduce fire risk if those areas are protected against burning in early stages of development and during severely dry years.

Seasonal predictions for wildland fire severity

Treesearch

Shyh-Chin Chen; Haiganoush Preisler; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; John O. Roads

2009-01-01

The National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indices deduced from the monthly to seasonal predictions of a meteorological climate model at 50-km grid space from January 1998 through December 2003 were used in conjunction with a probability model to predict the expected number of fire occurrences and large fires over the U.S. West. The short-term climate forecasts are...

Near-term probabilistic forecast of significant wildfire events for the Western United States

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Karin L. Riley; Crystal S. Stonesifer; Dave E. Calkin; Matt Jolly

2016-01-01

Fire danger and potential for large fires in the United States (US) is currently indicated via several forecasted qualitative indices. However, landscape-level quantitative forecasts of the probability of a large fire are currently lacking. In this study, we present a framework for forecasting large fire occurrence - an extreme value event - and evaluating...

Mid-21st- century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

Treesearch

Karin L. Riley; Rachel A. Loehman

2016-01-01

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st- century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains....

Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cooke, William H.; Mostovoy, Georgy; Anantharaj, Valentine G

2012-01-01

Three fire risk indexes based on soil moisture estimates were applied to simulate wildfire probability over the southern part of Mississippi using the logistic regression approach. The fire indexes were retrieved from: (1) accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-E); (2) top 10 cm soil moisture content simulated by the Mosaic land surface model; and (3) the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI). The P-E, KBDI, and soil moisture based indexes were estimated from gridded atmospheric and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Normalized deviations of these indexes from the 31-year meanmore » (1980-2010) were fitted into the logistic regression model describing probability of wildfires occurrence as a function of the fire index. It was assumed that such normalization provides more robust and adequate description of temporal dynamics of soil moisture anomalies than the original (not normalized) set of indexes. The logistic model parameters were evaluated for 0.25 x0.25 latitude/longitude cells and for probability representing at least one fire event occurred during 5 consecutive days. A 23-year (1986-2008) forest fires record was used. Two periods were selected and examined (January mid June and mid September December). The application of the logistic model provides an overall good agreement between empirical/observed and model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire risk indexes based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI have the largest impact on the wildfire odds (increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire risk index during January mid June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid September-December) observed over 0.25 x0.25 cells located along the state of Mississippi Coast line. This result suggests a rather strong control of fire risk indexes on fire occurrence probability over this region.« less

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the Piru, Simi, and Verdale Fires of 2003, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2003-01-01

These maps present preliminary assessments of the probability of debris-flow activity and estimates of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris-flows issuing from basins burned by the Piru, Simi and Verdale Fires of October 2003 in southern California in response to the 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year 1-hour rain storms. The probability maps are based on the application of a logistic multiple regression model that describes the percent chance of debris-flow production from an individual basin as a function of burned extent, soil properties, basin gradients and storm rainfall. The peak discharge maps are based on application of a multiple-regression model that can be used to estimate debris-flow peak discharge at a basin outlet as a function of basin gradient, burn extent, and storm rainfall. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence for the Piru Fire range between 2 and 94% and estimates of debris flow peak discharges range between 1,200 and 6,640 ft3/s (34 to 188 m3/s). Basins burned by the Simi Fire show probabilities for debris-flow occurrence between 1 and 98%, and peak discharge estimates between 1,130 and 6,180 ft3/s (32 and 175 m3/s). The probabilities for debris-flow activity calculated for the Verdale Fire range from negligible values to 13%. Peak discharges were not estimated for this fire because of these low probabilities. These maps are intended to identify those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and provide information for the preliminary design of mitigation measures and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

Towards the dynamic prediction of wildfire danger. Modeling temporal scenarios of fire-occurrence in Northeast Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martín, Yago; Rodrigues, Marcos

2017-04-01

Up to date models of human-caused ignition probability have commonly been developed from a static or structural point of view, regardless of the time cycles that drive human behavior or environmental conditions. However, human drivers mostly have a temporal dimension, and fuel conditions are subjected to temporal changes as well, which is why a historical/temporal perspective is often required. Previous studies in the region suggest that human driving factors of wildfires have undergone significant shifts in inter-annual occurrence probability models, thus varying over time. On the other hand, an increasing role of environmental conditions has also been reported. This research comprehensively analyzes the intra-annual dimension of fire occurrence and fire-triggering factors using NW Spain as a test area, moving one-step forward towards achieving more accurate predictions, to ultimately develop dynamic predictive models. To this end, several intra-annual presence-only models have been calibrated, exploring seasonal variations of environmental conditions and short-term cycles of human activity (working- vs non-working days). Models were developed from accurately geolocated fire data in the 2008-2012 period, and GIS and remote sensing (MOD1A2 and MOD16) information . Specifically, 8 occurrence data subsets (scenarios) were constructed by splitting fire records into 4 seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn) then separating each season into 2 new categories (working and non-working days). This allows analyzing the temporal variation of socioeconomic (urban- and agricultural-interfaces, transport and road networks, and human settlements) and environmental (fuel conditions) factors associated with occurrence. Models were calibrated applying the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The MaxEnt algorithm was selected as it is the most widespread approach to deal with presence-only data, as may be the case of fire occurrence. The dependent variable for each scenario was created on a conceptual framework which assumed that there were no true cases of fire absence. Model accuracy was assessed using a cross-validation k-fold procedure, whereas variable importance was addressed using a jacknife approach combined with AUC estimation. Results reported model performances around 0.8 AUC in all temporal scenarios. In addition, large variability was observed in the contribution of explanatory factors, with accessibility variables and fuel conditions as key factors along models. Overall, we believe our approach is reliable enough to derive dynamic predictions of human-caused fire occurrence probability. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to combine presence-only models based on XY located fire data, with remote sensing information and intra-annual scenarios also including cycles of human activity.

The sensitivity of US wildfire occurrence to pre-season soil moisture conditions across ecosystems.

PubMed

Jensen, Daniel; Reager, John T; Zajic, Brittany; Rousseau, Nick; Rodell, Matthew; Hinkley, Everett

2018-01-01

It is generally accepted that year-to-year variability in moisture conditions and drought are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state at seasonal lead-times has been challenging due to the absence of a long soil moisture record with the appropriate coverage and spatial resolution for continental-scale analysis. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the US Forest Service's historical Fire-Occurrence Database over the contiguous United States. We quantify the relationships between pre-fire-season soil moisture and subsequent-year wildfire occurrence by land-cover type and produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area maps at 0.25-degree resolution. Cross-validated results generally indicate a higher occurrence of smaller fires when months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This result is consistent with the concept of increased fuel accumulation under wet conditions in the pre-season. These results demonstrate the fundamental strength of the relationship between soil moisture and fire activity at long lead-times and are indicative of that relationship's utility for the future development of national-scale predictive capability.

The sensitivity of US wildfire occurrence to pre-season soil moisture conditions across ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Daniel; Reager, John T.; Zajic, Brittany; Rousseau, Nick; Rodell, Matthew; Hinkley, Everett

2018-01-01

It is generally accepted that year-to-year variability in moisture conditions and drought are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state at seasonal lead-times has been challenging due to the absence of a long soil moisture record with the appropriate coverage and spatial resolution for continental-scale analysis. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the USDA Forest Service’s historical Fire-Occurrence Database over the contiguous United States. We quantify the relationships between pre-fire-season soil moisture and subsequent-year wildfire occurrence by land-cover type and produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area maps at 0.25 degree resolution. Cross-validated results generally indicate a higher occurrence of smaller fires when months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This is consistent with the concept of increased fuel accumulation under wet conditions in the pre-season. These results demonstrate the fundamental strength of the relationship between soil moisture and fire activity at long lead-times and are indicative of that relationship’s utility for the future development of national-scale predictive capability.

Multi-temporal analysis of forest fire risk driven by environmental and socio-economic change in the Republic of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. J.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, G. S.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

Analysis of forest fire risk is important in disaster risk reduction (DRR) since it provides a way to manage forest fires. Climate and socio-economic factors are important in the cause of forest fires, and the role of the socio-economic factors in prevention and preparedness of forest fires is increasing. As most of the forest fires in the Republic of Korea are highly related to human activities, both environmental factors and socio-economic factors were considered into the analysis of forest fire risk. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential geographical distribution and probability of forest fire occurrence spatially and temporally from 1980s to the 2010s in the Republic of Korea by multi-temporal analysis and analyze the relationship between forest fires and the factors. As a result of the risk analysis, there was an overall increasing trend in forest fire risk from the 1980s to the 2000s, and socio-economic factors were highly correlated with the occurrence of forest fires. The study demonstrates that the socio-economic factors considered as human activities can increase the occurrence of forest fires. The result implies that managing human activities are significant to prevent forest fire occurrence. In addition, timely forest fire prevention and control is necessary as drought index such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) also affected forest fires.

Testing the assumptions of the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis for termites in semi-arid Australia.

PubMed

Davis, Hayley; Ritchie, Euan G; Avitabile, Sarah; Doherty, Tim; Nimmo, Dale G

2018-04-01

Fire shapes the composition and functioning of ecosystems globally. In many regions, fire is actively managed to create diverse patch mosaics of fire-ages under the assumption that a diversity of post-fire-age classes will provide a greater variety of habitats, thereby enabling species with differing habitat requirements to coexist, and enhancing species diversity (the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis). However, studies provide mixed support for this hypothesis. Here, using termite communities in a semi-arid region of southeast Australia, we test four key assumptions of the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis (i) that fire shapes vegetation structure over sufficient time frames to influence species' occurrence, (ii) that animal species are linked to resources that are themselves shaped by fire and that peak at different times since fire, (iii) that species' probability of occurrence or abundance peaks at varying times since fire and (iv) that providing a diversity of fire-ages increases species diversity at the landscape scale. Termite species and habitat elements were sampled in 100 sites across a range of fire-ages, nested within 20 landscapes chosen to represent a gradient of low to high pyrodiversity. We used regression modelling to explore relationships between termites, habitat and fire. Fire affected two habitat elements (coarse woody debris and the cover of woody vegetation) that were associated with the probability of occurrence of three termite species and overall species richness, thus supporting the first two assumptions of the pyrodiversity hypothesis. However, this did not result in those species or species richness being affected by fire history per se. Consequently, landscapes with a low diversity of fire histories had similar numbers of termite species as landscapes with high pyrodiversity. Our work suggests that encouraging a diversity of fire-ages for enhancing termite species richness in this study region is not necessary.

Testing the assumptions of the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis for termites in semi-arid Australia

PubMed Central

Davis, Hayley; Ritchie, Euan G.; Avitabile, Sarah; Doherty, Tim

2018-01-01

Fire shapes the composition and functioning of ecosystems globally. In many regions, fire is actively managed to create diverse patch mosaics of fire-ages under the assumption that a diversity of post-fire-age classes will provide a greater variety of habitats, thereby enabling species with differing habitat requirements to coexist, and enhancing species diversity (the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis). However, studies provide mixed support for this hypothesis. Here, using termite communities in a semi-arid region of southeast Australia, we test four key assumptions of the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis (i) that fire shapes vegetation structure over sufficient time frames to influence species' occurrence, (ii) that animal species are linked to resources that are themselves shaped by fire and that peak at different times since fire, (iii) that species’ probability of occurrence or abundance peaks at varying times since fire and (iv) that providing a diversity of fire-ages increases species diversity at the landscape scale. Termite species and habitat elements were sampled in 100 sites across a range of fire-ages, nested within 20 landscapes chosen to represent a gradient of low to high pyrodiversity. We used regression modelling to explore relationships between termites, habitat and fire. Fire affected two habitat elements (coarse woody debris and the cover of woody vegetation) that were associated with the probability of occurrence of three termite species and overall species richness, thus supporting the first two assumptions of the pyrodiversity hypothesis. However, this did not result in those species or species richness being affected by fire history per se. Consequently, landscapes with a low diversity of fire histories had similar numbers of termite species as landscapes with high pyrodiversity. Our work suggests that encouraging a diversity of fire-ages for enhancing termite species richness in this study region is not necessary. PMID:29765661

Avian community responses to post-fire forest structure: Implications for fire management in mixed conifer forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Angela M.; Manley, Patricia N.; Tarbill, Gina; Richardson, T.L.; Russell, Robin E.; Safford, Hugh D.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.

2015-01-01

Fire is a natural process and the dominant disturbance shaping plant and animal communities in many coniferous forests of the western US. Given that fire size and severity are predicted to increase in the future, it has become increasingly important to understand how wildlife responds to fire and post-fire management. The Angora Fire burned 1243 hectares of mixed conifer forest in South Lake Tahoe, California. We conducted avian point counts for the first 3 years following the fire in burned and unburned areas to investigate which habitat characteristics are most important for re-establishing or maintaining the native avian community in post-fire landscapes. We used a multi-species occurrence model to estimate how avian species are influenced by the density of live and dead trees and shrub cover. While accounting for variations in the detectability of species, our approach estimated the occurrence probabilities of all species detected including those that were rare or observed infrequently. Although all species encountered in this study were detected in burned areas, species-specific modeling results predicted that some species were strongly associated with specific post-fire conditions, such as a high density of dead trees, open-canopy conditions or high levels of shrub cover that occur at particular burn severities or at a particular time following fire. These results indicate that prescribed fire or managed wildfire which burns at low to moderate severity without at least some high-severity effects is both unlikely to result in the species assemblages that are unique to post-fire areas or to provide habitat for burn specialists. Additionally, the probability of occurrence for many species was associated with high levels of standing dead trees indicating that intensive post-fire harvest of these structures could negatively impact habitat of a considerable proportion of the avian community.

Future fire probability modeling with climate change data and physical chemistry

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; Frank R. Thompson; Jodi Whittier; Michael C. Stambaugh; Daniel C. Dey

2014-01-01

Climate has a primary influence on the occurrence and rate of combustion in ecosystems with carbon-based fuels such as forests and grasslands. Society will be confronted with the effects of climate change on fire in future forests. There are, however, few quantitative appraisals of how climate will affect wildland fire in the United States. We demonstrated a method for...

Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2010 Fourmile burn area, Boulder County, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruddy, Barbara C.; Stevens, Michael R.; Verdin, Kristine

2010-01-01

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the Fourmile Creek fire in Boulder County, Colorado, in 2010. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volumes of debris flows for selected drainage basins. Data for the models include burn severity, rainfall total and intensity for a 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainstorm, and topographic and soil property characteristics. Several of the selected drainage basins in Fourmile Creek and Gold Run were identified as having probabilities of debris-flow occurrence greater than 60 percent, and many more with probabilities greater than 45 percent, in response to the 25-year recurrence, 1-hour rainfall. None of the Fourmile Canyon Creek drainage basins selected had probabilities greater than 45 percent. Throughout the Gold Run area and the Fourmile Creek area upstream from Gold Run, the higher probabilities tend to be in the basins with southerly aspects (southeast, south, and southwest slopes). Many basins along the perimeter of the fire area were identified as having low probability of occurrence of debris flow. Volume of debris flows predicted from drainage basins with probabilities of occurrence greater than 60 percent ranged from 1,200 to 9,400 m3. The predicted moderately high probabilities and some of the larger volumes responses predicted for the modeled storm indicate a potential for substantial debris-flow effects to buildings, roads, bridges, culverts, and reservoirs located both within these drainages and immediately downstream from the burned area. However, even small debris flows that affect structures at the basin outlets could cause considerable damage.

Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of northern Amazon fires during the 2015-2016 El Niño event.

PubMed

Fonseca, Marisa G; Anderson, Liana O; Arai, Egidio; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Xaud, Haron A M; Xaud, Maristela R; Madani, Nima; Wagner, Fabien H; Aragão, Luiz E O C

2017-12-01

The strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event that occurred in 2015-2016 caused extreme drought in the northern Brazilian Amazon, especially in the state of Roraima, increasing fire occurrence. Here we map the extent of precipitation and fire anomalies and quantify the effects of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on fire occurrence during the 2015-2016 dry season (from December 2015 to March 2016) in the state of Roraima. To achieve these objectives we first estimated the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies, based on long-term data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), and the fire anomaly, based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active fire detections during the referred period. Then, we integrated climatic and anthropogenic drivers in a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to quantify fire probability, assessing (1) the model accuracy during the 2015-2016 and the 2016-2017 dry seasons; (2) the relative importance of each predictor variable on the model predictive performance; and (3) the response curves, showing how each environmental variable affects the fire probability. Approximately 59% (132,900 km 2 ) of the study area was exposed to precipitation anomalies ≤-1 standard deviation (SD) in January and ~48% (~106,800 km 2 ) in March. About 38% (86,200 km 2 ) of the study area experienced fire anomalies ≥1 SD in at least one month between December 2015 and March 2016. The distance to roads and the direct ENSO effect on fire occurrence were the two most influential variables on model predictive performance. Despite the improvement of governmental actions of fire prevention and firefighting in Roraima since the last intense ENSO event (1997-1998), we show that fire still gets out of control in the state during extreme drought events. Our results indicate that if no prevention actions are undertaken, future road network expansion and a climate-induced increase in water stress will amplify fire occurrence in the northern Amazon, even in its humid dense forests. As an additional outcome of our analysis, we conclude that the model and the data we used may help to guide on-the-ground fire-prevention actions and firefighting planning and therefore minimize fire-related ecosystems degradation, economic losses and carbon emissions in Roraima. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Western spruce budworm outbreaks did not increase fire risk over the last three centuries: A dendrochronological analysis of inter-disturbance synergism

Treesearch

Aquila Flower; Daniel G. Gavin; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Russell A. Parsons; Gregory M. Cohn

2014-01-01

Insect outbreaks are often assumed to increase the severity or probability of fire occurrence through increased fuel availability, while fires may in turn alter susceptibility of forests to subsequent insect outbreaks through changes in the spatial distribution of suitable host trees. However, little is actually known about the potential synergisms between these...

Burned areas for the conterminous U.S. from 1984 through 2015, an automated approach using dense time-series of Landsat data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawbaker, T. J.; Vanderhoof, M.; Beal, Y. J. G.; Takacs, J. D.; Schmidt, G.; Falgout, J.; Brunner, N. M.; Caldwell, M. K.; Picotte, J. J.; Howard, S. M.; Stitt, S.; Dwyer, J. L.

2016-12-01

Complete and accurate burned area data are needed to document patterns of fires, to quantify relationships between the patterns and drivers of fire occurrence, and to assess the impacts of fires on human and natural systems. Unfortunately, many existing fire datasets in the United States are known to be incomplete and that complicates efforts to understand burned area patterns and introduces a large amount of uncertainty in efforts to identify their driving processes and impacts. Because of this, the need to systematically collect burned area information has been recognized by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which have both called for the production of essential climate variables. To help meet this need, we developed a novel algorithm that automatically identifies burned areas in temporally-dense time series of Landsat image stacks to produce Landsat Burned Area Essential Climate Variable (BAECV) products. The algorithm makes use of predictors derived from individual Landsat scenes, lagged reference conditions, and change metrics between the scene and reference predictors. Outputs of the BAECV algorithm, generated for the conterminous United States for 1984 through 2015, consist of burn probabilities for each Landsat scene, in addition to, annual composites including: the maximum burn probability, burn classification, and the Julian date of the first Landsat scene a burn was observed. The BAECV products document patterns of fire occurrence that are not well characterized by existing fire datasets in the United States. We anticipate that these data could help to better understand past patterns of fire occurrence, the drivers that created them, and the impacts fires had on natural and human systems.

Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cochrane, M.A.; Moran, C.J.; Wimberly, M.C.; Baer, A.D.; Finney, M.A.; Beckendorf, K.L.; Eidenshink, J.; Zhu, Z.

2012-01-01

Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72 000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314 000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.

Variables associated with the occurrence of Ips beetles, red turpentine beetle and wood borers in live and dead ponderosa pines with post-fire injury

Treesearch

Jose F. Negron; Joel McMillin; Carolyn H. Sieg; James F. Fowler; Kurt K. Allen; Linda L. Wadleigh; John A. Anhold; Ken E. Gibson

2016-01-01

Recently, wildfires and prescribed burning have become more frequent in conifer forests of western North America. Most studies examining the impacts of insects on trees with post-fire injury have focused on contributions to tree mortality. Few studies have examined fire-caused injuries to estimate the probability of attack by insects. Scant data quantifying...

Forecasting distribution of numbers of large fires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Howard, Stephen; Burgan, Robert E.

2014-01-01

Systems to estimate forest fire potential commonly utilize one or more indexes that relate to expected fire behavior; however they indicate neither the chance that a large fire will occur, nor the expected number of large fires. That is, they do not quantify the probabilistic nature of fire danger. In this work we use large fire occurrence information from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project, and satellite and surface observations of fuel conditions in the form of the Fire Potential Index, to estimate two aspects of fire danger: 1) the probability that a 1 acre ignition will result in a 100+ acre fire, and 2) the probabilities of having at least 1, 2, 3, or 4 large fires within a Predictive Services Area in the forthcoming week. These statistical processes are the main thrust of the paper and are used to produce two daily national forecasts that are available from the U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center and via the Wildland Fire Assessment System. A validation study of our forecasts for the 2013 fire season demonstrated good agreement between observed and forecasted values.

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

PubMed Central

Legg, Colin J.

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2. PMID:27833814

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires.

PubMed

Davies, G Matt; Legg, Colin J

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

Restoring forest structure and process stabilizes forest carbon in wildfire-prone southwestern ponderosa pine forests.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D; Liang, Shuang; Martin, Katherine L; North, Malcolm P; Koch, George W; Hungate, Bruce A

2016-03-01

Changing climate and a legacy of fire-exclusion have increased the probability of high-severity wildfire, leading to an increased risk of forest carbon loss in ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern USA. Efforts to reduce high-severity fire risk through forest thinning and prescribed burning require both the removal and emission of carbon from these forests, and any potential carbon benefits from treatment may depend on the occurrence of wildfire. We sought to determine how forest treatments alter the effects of stochastic wildfire events on the forest carbon balance. We modeled three treatments (control, thin-only, and thin and burn) with and without the occurrence of wildfire. We evaluated how two different probabilities of wildfire occurrence, 1% and 2% per year, might alter the carbon balance of treatments. In the absence of wildfire, we found that thinning and burning treatments initially reduced total ecosystem carbon (TEC) and increased net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB). In the presence of wildfire, the thin and burn treatment TEC surpassed that of the control in year 40 at 2%/yr wildfire probability, and in year 51 at 1%/yr wildfire probability. NECB in the presence of wildfire showed a similar response to the no-wildfire scenarios: both thin-only and thin and burn treatments increased the C sink. Treatments increased TEC by reducing both mean wildfire severity and its variability. While the carbon balance of treatments may differ in more productive forest types, the carbon balance benefits from restoring forest structure and fire in southwestern ponderosa pine forests are clear.

Assessment of multi-wildfire occurrence data for machine learning based risk modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, C. H.; Kim, M.; Kim, S. J.; Yoo, S.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

The occurrence of East Asian wildfires is mainly caused by human-activities, but the extreme drought increased due to the climate change caused wildfires and they spread to large-scale fires. Accurate occurrence location data is required for modelling wildfire probability and risk. In South Korea, occurrence data surveyed through KFS (Korea Forest Service) and MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite-based active fire data can be utilized. In this study, two sorts of wildfire occurrence data were applied to select suitable occurrence data for machine learning based wildfire risk modelling. MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model based on machine learning is used for wildfire risk modelling, and two types of occurrence data and socio-economic and climate-environment data are applied to modelling. In the results with KFS survey based data, the low relationship was shown with climate-environmental factors, and the uncertainty of coordinate information appeared. The MODIS-based active fire data were found outside the forests, and there were a lot of spots that did not match the actual wildfires. In order to utilize MODIS-based active fire data, it was necessary to extract forest area and utilize only high-confidence level data. In KFS data, it was necessary to separate the analysis according to the damage scale to improve the modelling accuracy. Ultimately, it is considered to be the best way to simulate the wildfire risk by constructing more accurate information by combining two sorts of wildfire occurrence data.

THE MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF A SIMPLE DUEL

DTIC Science & Technology

The principles and techniques of simple Markov processes are used to analyze a simple duel to determine the limiting state probabilities (i.e., the...probabilities of occurrence of the various possible outcomes of the duel ). The duel is one in which A fires at B at a rate of r sub A shots per minute

Mapping burned areas using dense time-series of Landsat data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hawbaker, Todd J.; Vanderhoof, Melanie; Beal, Yen-Ju G.; Takacs, Joshua; Schmidt, Gail L.; Falgout, Jeff T.; Williams, Brad; Brunner, Nicole M.; Caldwell, Megan K.; Picotte, Joshua J.; Howard, Stephen M.; Stitt, Susan; Dwyer, John L.

2017-01-01

Complete and accurate burned area data are needed to document patterns of fires, to quantify relationships between the patterns and drivers of fire occurrence, and to assess the impacts of fires on human and natural systems. Unfortunately, in many areas existing fire occurrence datasets are known to be incomplete. Consequently, the need to systematically collect burned area information has been recognized by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which have both called for the production of essential climate variables (ECVs), including information about burned area. In this paper, we present an algorithm that identifies burned areas in dense time-series of Landsat data to produce the Landsat Burned Area Essential Climate Variable (BAECV) products. The algorithm uses gradient boosted regression models to generate burn probability surfaces using band values and spectral indices from individual Landsat scenes, lagged reference conditions, and change metrics between the scene and reference predictors. Burn classifications are generated from the burn probability surfaces using pixel-level thresholding in combination with a region growing process. The algorithm can be applied anywhere Landsat and training data are available. For this study, BAECV products were generated for the conterminous United States from 1984 through 2015. These products consist of pixel-level burn probabilities for each Landsat scene, in addition to, annual composites including: the maximum burn probability and a burn classification. We compared the BAECV burn classification products to the existing Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED; 1997–2015) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS; 1984–2013) data. We found that the BAECV products mapped 36% more burned area than the GFED and 116% more burned area than MTBS. Differences between the BAECV products and the GFED were especially high in the West and East where the BAECV products mapped 32% and 88% more burned area, respectively. However, the BAECV products found less burned area than the GFED in regions with frequent agricultural fires. Compared to the MTBS data, the BAECV products identified 31% more burned area in the West, 312% more in the Great Plains, and 233% more in the East. Most pixels in the MTBS data were detected by the BAECV, regardless of burn severity. The BAECV products document patterns of fire similar to those in the GFED but also showed patterns of fire that are not well characterized by the existing MTBS data. We anticipate the BAECV products will be useful to studies that seek to understand past patterns of fire occurrence, the drivers that created them, and the impacts fires have on natural and human systems.

Limiting the immediate and subsequent hazards associated with wildfires

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeGraff, Jerome V.; Cannon, Susan H.; Parise, Mario

2013-01-01

Similarly, our capability to limit impacts from post-fire debris flows is improving. Empirical models for estimating the probability of debris-flow occurrence, the volume of such an event, and mapping the inundated area, linked with improved definitions of the rainfall conditions that trigger debris flows, can be used to provide critical information for post-fire hazard mitigation and emergency-response planning.

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Powerhouse fire, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Smoczyk, Gregory M.; Reeves, Ryan R.

2013-01-01

Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. Existing empirical models were used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm for the 2013 Powerhouse fire near Lancaster, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively low probability for debris-flow occurrence in response to the design storm. However, volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 44 of the 73 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes between 10,000 and 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest that even though the likelihood of debris flow is relatively low, the consequences of post-fire debris-flow initiation within the burn area may be significant for downstream populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National-Weather-Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches, and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riley, Karin L.; Loehman, Rachel A.

2016-01-01

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of frequency and severity, and depending on the extent to which ecosystems are adapted) may maintain or restore ecosystem functionality; however, in areas that are highly departed from historical fire regimes or where there is disequilibrium between climate and vegetation, ecosystems may be rapidly and persistently altered by wildfires, especially those that burn under extreme conditions.

Fire occurrence prediction in the Mediterranean: Application to Southern France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papakosta, Panagiota; Öster, Jan; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel

2013-04-01

The areas that extend in the Mediterranean basin have a long fire history. The climatic conditions of wet winters and long hot drying summers support seasonal fire events, mainly ignited by humans. Extended land fragmentation hinders fire spread, but seasonal winds (e.g. Mistral in South France or Meltemia in Greece) can drive fire events to become uncontrollable fires with severe impacts to humans and the environment [1]. Prediction models in these areas should incorporate both natural and anthropogenic factors. Several indices have been developed worldwide to express fire weather conditions. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is currently adapted by many countries in Europe due to the easily observable input weather parameters (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation) and the easy-to-implement algorithms of the Canadian formulation describing fuel moisture relations [2],[3]. Human influence can be expressed directly by human presence (e.g. population density) or indirectly by proxy indicators (e.g. street density [4], land cover type). The random nature of fire occurrences and the uncertainties associated with the influencing factors motivate probabilistic prediction models. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model of fire occurrence probability under natural and anthropogenic influence in Southern France and to compare it with earlier developed predictions in other Mediterranean areas [5]. Fire occurrence is modeled as a Poisson process. Two interpolation methods (Kriging and Inverse Distance Weighting) are used to interpolate daily weather observations from weather stations to a 1 km² spatial grid and their results are compared. Poisson regression estimates the parameters of the model and the resulting daily predictions are provided in terms of maps displaying fire occurrence rates. The model is applied to the regions Provence-Alpes-Côtes D'Azur und Languedoc-Roussillon in the South of France. Weather data are obtained from the German and French Weather Services (Deutscher Wetterdienst and Météo-France). Historical fire events are taken from Prométhée database. Time series 2000-2010 are used as learning data and data from 2011 is used as the validation data. The resulting model can support real-time fire risk estimation for improved allocation of firefighting resources and planning of other mitigation actions. [1] Keeley, J.E.; Bond, W.J.; Bradstock, R.A.; Pausas, J.G.; Rundel, P.W. (2012): Fire in Mediterranean ecosystems: ecology, evolution and management. Cambridge University Press, New York, USA, pp.515 [2] Lawson, B.D.; Armitage, O.B. (2008): Weather Guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. [3] Van Wagner, C.E.; Pickett, T.L. (1985): Equations and FORTRAN Program for the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Forestry Technical Report 33. Canadian Forestry Service, Government of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada [4] Syphard, A.D.; Radeloff, V.C.; Keuler, N.S.; Taylor, R.S.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Clayton, M.K. (2008): Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 17, pp.602-613 [5] Papakosta, P.; Klein, F.; König, S.; Straub, D. (2012): Linking spatio-temporal data to the Fire Weather Index to estimate the probability of wildfire in the Mediterranean. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol.14, EGU2012-12737, EGU General Assembly 2012

Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arima, Eugenio Y.; Simmons, Cynthia S.; Walker, Robert T.; Cochrane, Mark A.

2007-01-01

This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farmgate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of managed and unmanaged fires in order to simulate the impact of road paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

2010-05-01

Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations and ignition probability grids (1000 x 1000 m) built from historical fire data (1995-2007). The simulation outputs were then examined to understand relationships between burn probability and specific vegetation types and ignition sources. Wildfire threats to specific values of human interest were quantified to map landscape patterns of wildfire risk. The simulation outputs also allowed us to differentiate between areas of the landscape that were progenitors of fires versus "victims" of large fires. The results provided spatially explicit data on wildfire likelihood and intensity that can be used in a variety of strategic and tactical planning forums to mitigate wildfire threats to human and other values in the Mediterranean Basin.

Wildfire patterns and landscape changes in Mediterranean oak woodlands.

PubMed

Guiomar, N; Godinho, S; Fernandes, P M; Machado, R; Neves, N; Fernandes, J P

2015-12-01

Fire is infrequent in the oak woodlands of southern Portugal (montado) but large and severe fires affected these agro-forestry systems in 2003-2005. We hypothesised transition from forest to shrubland as a fire-driven process and investigated the links between fire incidence and montado change to other land cover types, particularly those related with the presence of pioneer communities (generically designed in this context as "transitions to early-successional communities"). We present a landscape-scale framework for assessing the probability of transition from montado to pioneer communities, considering three sets of explanatory variables: montado patterns in 1990 and prior changes from montado to early-successional communities (occurred between 1960 and 1990), fire patterns, and spatial factors. These three sets of factors captured 78.2% of the observed variability in the transitions from montado to pioneer vegetation. The contributions of fire patterns and spatial factors were high, respectively 60.6% and 43.4%, the influence of montado patterns and former changes in montado being lower (34.4%). The highest amount of explained variation in the occurrence of transitions from montado to early-successional communities was related to the pure effect of fire patterns (19.9%). Low spatial connectedness in montado landscape can increase vulnerability to changes, namely to pioneer vegetation, but the observed changes were mostly explained by fire characteristics and spatial factors. Among all metrics used to characterize fire patterns and extent, effective mesh size provided the best modelling results. Transitions from montado to pioneer communities are more likely in the presence of high values of the effective mesh size of total burned area. This cross-boundary metric is an indicator of the influence of large fires in the distribution of the identified transitions and, therefore, we conclude that the occurrence of large fires in montado increases its probability of transition to shrubland. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of data fusion technology based on D-S evidence theory in fire detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Zhishan; Chen, Musheng

2015-12-01

Judgment and identification based on single fire characteristic parameter information in fire detection is subject to environmental disturbances, and accordingly its detection performance is limited with the increase of false positive rate and false negative rate. The compound fire detector employs information fusion technology to judge and identify multiple fire characteristic parameters in order to improve the reliability and accuracy of fire detection. The D-S evidence theory is applied to the multi-sensor data-fusion: first normalize the data from all sensors to obtain the normalized basic probability function of the fire occurrence; then conduct the fusion processing using the D-S evidence theory; finally give the judgment results. The results show that the method meets the goal of accurate fire signal identification and increases the accuracy of fire alarm, and therefore is simple and effective.

Estimated probability of postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Fire burn area, southwestern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne C.; Matherne, Anne Marie; Verdin, Kristine L.

2012-01-01

In May and June 2012, the Whitewater-Baldy Fire burned approximately 1,200 square kilometers (300,000 acres) of the Gila National Forest, in southwestern New Mexico. The burned landscape is now at risk of damage from postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. This report presents a preliminary hazard assessment of the debris-flow potential from 128 basins burned by the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. A pair of empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burned area. The models incorporate measures of areal burned extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. In response to the 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, modeling indicated that four basins have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence (greater than or equal to 80 percent). For the 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional 14 basins are included, and for the 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional eight basins, 20 percent of the total, have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence. In addition, probability analysis along the stream segments can identify specific reaches of greatest concern for debris flows within a basin. Basins with a high probability of debris-flow occurrence were concentrated in the west and central parts of the burned area, including tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, and Willow Creek. Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from about 3,000-4,000 cubic meters (m3) to greater than 500,000 m3 for all design storms modeled. Drainage basins with estimated volumes greater than 500,000 m3 included tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Willow Creek, Iron Creek, and West Fork Mogollon Creek. Drainage basins with estimated debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 m3 for the 25-year-recurrence event, 24 percent of the basins modeled, also include tributaries to Deep Creek, Mineral Creek, Gilita Creek, West Fork Gila River, Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek, among others. Basins with the highest combined probability and volume relative hazard rankings for the 25-year-recurrence rainfall include tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, Willow Creek, West Fork Gila River, West Fork Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek. Debris flows from Whitewater, Mineral, and Willow Creeks could affect the southwestern New Mexico communities of Glenwood, Alma, and Willow Creek. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where emergency erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be necessary within a 2- to 3-year period of vulnerability following the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. This work is preliminary and is subject to revision. It is being provided because of the need for timely "best science" information. The assessment herein is provided on the condition that neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the U.S. Government may be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the assessment.

Memory effects on a resonate-and-fire neuron model subjected to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paekivi, S.; Mankin, R.; Rekker, A.

2017-10-01

We consider a generalized Langevin equation with an exponentially decaying memory kernel as a model for the firing process of a resonate-and-fire neuron. The effect of temporally correlated random neuronal input is modeled as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise. In the noise-induced spiking regime of the neuron, we derive exact analytical formulas for the dependence of some statistical characteristics of the output spike train, such as the probability distribution of the interspike intervals (ISIs) and the survival probability, on the parameters of the input stimulus. Particularly, on the basis of these exact expressions, we have established sufficient conditions for the occurrence of memory-time-induced transitions between unimodal and multimodal structures of the ISI density and a critical damping coefficient which marks a dynamical transition in the behavior of the system.

Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification

PubMed Central

Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

2016-01-01

Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures. PMID:27463975

Using Logistic Regression To Predict the Probability of Debris Flows Occurring in Areas Recently Burned By Wildland Fires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.

2003-01-01

Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of debris flows occurring in areas recently burned by wildland fires. Multiple logistic regression is conceptually similar to multiple linear regression because statistical relations between one dependent variable and several independent variables are evaluated. In logistic regression, however, the dependent variable is transformed to a binary variable (debris flow did or did not occur), and the actual probability of the debris flow occurring is statistically modeled. Data from 399 basins located within 15 wildland fires that burned during 2000-2002 in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and New Mexico were evaluated. More than 35 independent variables describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows were delineated from National Elevation Data using a Geographic Information System (GIS). (2) Data describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were determined for each basin. These data were then downloaded to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression. (3) Relations between the occurrence/non-occurrence of debris flows and burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated and several preliminary multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combination produced the most effective model. The multivariate model that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows was selected. (4) The multivariate logistic regression model was entered into a GIS, and a map showing the probability of debris flows was constructed. The most effective model incorporates the percentage of each basin with slope greater than 30 percent, percentage of land burned at medium and high burn severity in each basin, particle size sorting, average storm intensity (millimeters per hour), soil organic matter content, soil permeability, and soil drainage. The results of this study demonstrate that logistic regression is a valuable tool for predicting the probability of debris flows occurring in recently-burned landscapes.

Simulating high spatial resolution high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forests for California Spotted Owl habitat climate change risk assessment and management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, A.; Westerling, A. L.; Jones, G.; Peery, M. Z.

2017-12-01

Sierra Nevada forests have experienced an increase in very large fires with significant areas of high burn severity, such as the Rim (2013) and King (2014) fires, that have impacted habitat of endangered species such as the California spotted owl. In order to support land manager forest management planning and risk assessment activities, we used historical wildfire histories from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project and gridded hydroclimate and land surface characteristics data to develope statistical models to simulate the frequency, location and extent of high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forest wildfires as functions of climate and land surface characteristics. We define high severity here as BA90 area: the area comprising patches with ninety percent or more basal area killed within a larger fire. We developed a system of statistical models to characterize the probability of large fire occurrence, the probability of significant BA90 area present given a large fire, and the total extent of BA90 area in a fire on a 1/16 degree lat/lon grid over the Sierra Nevada. Repeated draws from binomial and generalized pareto distributions using these probabilities generated a library of simulated histories of high severity fire for a range of near (50 yr) future climate and fuels management scenarios. Fuels management scenarios were provided by USFS Region 5. Simulated BA90 area was then downscaled to 30 m resolution using a statistical model we developed using Random Forest techniques to estimate the probability of adjacent 30m pixels burning with ninety percent basal kill as a function of fire size and vegetation and topographic features. The result is a library of simulated high resolution maps of BA90 burned areas for a range of climate and fuels management scenarios with which we estimated conditional probabilities of owl nesting sites being impacted by high severity wildfire.

Holocene fire occurrence and alluvial responses at the leading edge of pinyon–juniper migration in the Northern Great Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weppner, Kerrie N.; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2013-01-01

Fire and vegetation records at the City of Rocks National Reserve (CIRO), south-central Idaho, display the interaction of changing climate, fire and vegetation along the migrating front of single-leaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla) and Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma). Radiocarbon dating of alluvial charcoal reconstructed local fire occurrence and geomorphic response, and fossil woodrat (Neotoma) middens revealed pinyon and juniper arrivals. Fire peaks occurred ~ 10,700–9500, 7200–6700, 2400–2000, 850–700, and 550–400 cal yr BP, whereas ~ 9500–7200, 6700–4700 and ~ 1500–1000 cal yr BP are fire-free. Wetter climates and denser vegetation fueled episodic fires and debris flows during the early and late Holocene, whereas drier climates and reduced vegetation caused frequent sheetflooding during the mid-Holocene. Increased fires during the wetter and more variable late Holocene suggest variable climate and adequate fuels augment fires at CIRO. Utah juniper and single-leaf pinyon colonized CIRO by 3800 and 2800 cal yr BP, respectively, though pinyon did not expand broadly until ~ 700 cal yr BP. Increased fire-related deposition coincided with regional droughts and pinyon infilling ~ 850–700 and 550–400 cal yr BP. Early and late Holocene vegetation change probably played a major role in accelerated fire activity, which may be sustained into the future due to pinyon–juniper densification and cheatgrass invasion.

Human versus lightning ignition of presettlement surface fires in costal pine forests of the upper Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loope, Walter L.; Anderton, John B.

1998-01-01

To recover direct evidence of surface fires before European settlement, we sectioned fire-scarred logging-era stumps and trees in 39 small, physically isolated sand patches along the Great Lakes coast of northern Michigan and northern Wisconsin. While much information was lost to postharvest fire and stump deterioration, 147 fire-free intervals revealed in cross-sections from 29 coastal sand patches document numerous close interval surface fires before 1910; only one post-1910 fire was documented. Cross-sections from the 10 sections with records spanning >150 yr suggest local fire occurrence rates before 1910 ca. 10 times the present rate of lightning-caused fire. Since fire spread between or into coastal sand patches is rare, and seasonal use of the patches by Native people before 1910 is well documented, both historically and ethnographically, ignition by humans probably accounts for more than half of the pre-1910 fires recorded in cross-sections.

Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Fernández, J.; Chuvieco, E.; Koutsias, N.

2013-02-01

Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983-2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local parameter estimates for all the variables and an important reduction of the autocorrelation in the residuals of the GW linear model. Despite the fitting improvement of local models, GW regression, more than an alternative to "global" or traditional regression modelling, seems to be a valuable complement to explore the non-stationary relationships between the response variable and the explanatory variables. The synergy of global and local modelling provides insights into fire management and policy and helps further our understanding of the fire problem over large areas while at the same time recognizing its local character.

Classification Model for Forest Fire Hotspot Occurrences Prediction Using ANFIS Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijayanto, A. K.; Sani, O.; Kartika, N. D.; Herdiyeni, Y.

2017-01-01

This study proposed the application of data mining technique namely Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) on forest fires hotspot data to develop classification models for hotspots occurrence in Central Kalimantan. Hotspot is a point that is indicated as the location of fires. In this study, hotspot distribution is categorized as true alarm and false alarm. ANFIS is a soft computing method in which a given inputoutput data set is expressed in a fuzzy inference system (FIS). The FIS implements a nonlinear mapping from its input space to the output space. The method of this study classified hotspots as target objects by correlating spatial attributes data using three folds in ANFIS algorithm to obtain the best model. The best result obtained from the 3rd fold provided low error for training (error = 0.0093676) and also low error testing result (error = 0.0093676). Attribute of distance to road is the most determining factor that influences the probability of true and false alarm where the level of human activities in this attribute is higher. This classification model can be used to develop early warning system of forest fire.

Modeling Forest Understory Fires in an Eastern Amazonian Landscape

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alencar, A. A. C.; Solorzano, L. A.; Nepstad, D. C.

2004-01-01

Forest understory fires are an increasingly important cause of forest impoverishment in Ammonia, but little is known of the landscape characteristics and climatic phenomena that determine their occurrence. We developed empirical functions relating the occurrence of understory fires to landscape features near Paragominas, a 35- yr-old ranching and logging center in eastern Ammonia. An historical sequence of maps of forest understory fire was created based on field interviews With local farmers and Landsat TM images. Several landscape features that might explain spatial variations in the occurrence of understory fires were also mapped and co-registered for each of the sample dates, including: forest fragment size and shape, forest impoverishment through logging and understory fires, source of ignition (settlements and charcoal pits), roads, forest edges, and others. The spatial relationship between forest understory fire and each landscape characteristic was tested by regression analyses. Fire probability models were then developed for various combinations of landscape characteristics. The analyses were conducted separately for years of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are associated with severe drought in eastern Amazonia, and non-ENS0 years. Most (91 %) of the forest area that burned during the 10-yr sequence caught fire during ENSO years, when severe drought may have increased both forest flammability and the escape of agricultural management fires. Forest understory fires were associated with forest edges, as reported in previous studies from Ammonia. But the strongest predictor of forest fire was the percentage of the forest fragment that had been previously logged or burned. Forest fragment size, distance to charcoal pits, distance to agricultural settlement, proximity to forest edge, and distance to roads were also correlated with forest understory fire. Logistic regression models using information on fragment degradation and distance to ignition sources accurately predicted the location of lss than 80% of the forest fires observed during the ENSO event of 1997- 1998. In this Amazon landscape, forest understory fire is a complex function of several variables that influence both the flammability and ignition exposure of the forest.

Weak climatic control of stand-scale fire history during the late holocene.

PubMed

Gavin, Daniel G; Hu, Feng Sheng; Lertzman, Kenneth; Corbett, Peter

2006-07-01

Forest fire occurrence is affected by multiple controls that operate at local to regional scales. At the spatial scale of forest stands, regional climatic controls may be obscured by local controls (e.g., stochastic ignitions, topography, and fuel loads), but the long-term role of such local controls is poorly understood. We report here stand-scale (<100 ha) fire histories of the past 5000 years based on the analysis of sediment charcoal at two lakes 11 km apart in southeastern British Columbia. The two lakes are today located in similar subalpine forests, and they likely have experienced the same late-Holocene climatic changes because of their close proximity. We evaluated two independent properties of fire history: (1) fire-interval distribution, a measure of the overall incidence of fire, and (2) fire synchroneity, a measure of the co-occurrence of fire (here, assessed at centennial to millennial time scales due to the resolution of sediment records). Fire-interval distributions differed between the sites prior to, but not after, 2500 yr before present. When the entire 5000-yr period is considered, no statistical synchrony between fire-episode dates existed between the two sites at any temporal scale, but for the last 2500 yr marginal levels of synchrony occurred at centennial scales. Each individual fire record exhibited little coherency with regional climate changes. In contrast, variations in the composite record (average of both sites) matched variations in climate evidenced by late-Holocene glacial advances. This was probably due to the increased sample size and spatial extent represented by the composite record (up to 200 ha) plus increased regional climatic variability over the last several millennia, which may have partially overridden local, non-climatic controls. We conclude that (1) over past millennia, neighboring stands with similar modern conditions may have experienced different fire intervals and asynchronous patterns in fire episodes, likely because local controls outweighed the synchronizing effect of climate; (2) the influence of climate on fire occurrence is more strongly expressed when climatic variability is relatively great; and (3) multiple records from a region are essential if climate-fire relations are to be reliably described.

Postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2012 Little Bear Fire, south-central New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne C.; Matherne, Anne Marie

2013-01-01

A preliminary hazard assessment was developed of the debris-flow potential from 56 drainage basins burned by the Little Bear Fire in south-central New Mexico in June 2012. The Little Bear Fire burned approximately 179 square kilometers (km2) (44,330 acres), including about 143 km2 (35,300 acres) of National Forest System lands of the Lincoln National Forest. Within the Lincoln National Forest, about 72 km2 (17,664 acres) of the White Mountain Wilderness were burned. The burn area also included about 34 km2 (8,500 acres) of private lands. Burn severity was high or moderate on 53 percent of the burn area. The area burned is at risk of substantial postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. A postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the Little Bear Fire was performed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Lincoln National Forest. A set of two empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned drainage basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burn area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burn area. The models incorporate measures of areal burn extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. Relative hazard rankings of postwildfire debris flows were produced by summing the estimated probability and volume ranking to illustrate those areas with the highest potential occurrence of debris flows with the largest volumes. The probability that a drainage basin could produce debris flows and the volume of a possible debris flow at the basin outlet were estimated for three design storms: (1) a 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 27 millimeters (mm) (a 50 percent chance of occurrence in any given year); (2) a 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 42 mm (a 10 percent chance of occurrence in any given year); and (3) a 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 51 mm (a 4 percent chance of occurrence in any given year). Thirty-nine percent of the 56 drainage basins modeled have a high (greater than 80 percent) probability of debris flows in response to the 2-year design storm; 80 percent of the modeled drainage basins have a high probability of debris flows in response to the 25-year design storm. For debris-flow volume, 7 percent of the modeled drainage basins have an estimated debris-flow volume greater than 100,000 cubic meters (m3) in response to the 2-year design storm; 9 percent of the drainage basins are included in the greater than 100,000 m3 category for both the 10-year and the 25-year design storms. Drainage basins in the greater than 100,000 m3 volume category also received the highest combined hazard ranking. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where emergency erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be needed prior to rainstorms within these drainage basins, their outlets, or areas downstream from these drainage basins within the 2- to 3-year period of vulnerability. This work is preliminary and is subject to revision. The assessment herein is provided on the condition that neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the U.S. Government may be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the assessment.

Forest Fire Danger Rating (FFDR) Prediction over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, B.; Won, M.; Jang, K.; Yoon, S.; Lim, J.

2016-12-01

Approximately five hundred forest fires occur and inflict the losses of both life and property each year in Korea during the forest fire seasons in the spring and autumn. Thus, an accurate prediction of forest fire is essential for effective forest fire prevention. The meteorology is one of important factors to predict and understand the fire occurrence as well as its behaviors and spread. In this study, we present the Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems (FFDRS) on the Korean Peninsula based on the Daily Weather Index (DWI) which represents the meteorological characteristics related to forest fire. The thematic maps including temperature, humidity, and wind speed produced from Korea Meteorology Administration (KMA) were applied to the forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression to analyze the DWI over the Korean Peninsula. The regional data assimilation and prediction system (RDAPS) and the improved digital forecast model were used to verify the sensitivity of DWI. The result of verification test revealed that the improved digital forecast model dataset showed better agreements with the real-time weather data. The forest fire danger rating index (FFDRI) calculated by the improved digital forecast model dataset showed a good agreement with the real-time weather dataset at the 233 administrative districts (R2=0.854). In addition, FFDRI were compared with observation-based FFDRI at 76 national weather stations. The mean difference was 0.5 at the site-level. The results produced in this study indicate that the improved digital forecast model dataset can be useful to predict the FFDRI in the Korean Peninsula successfully.

Normalized burn ratios link fire severity with patterns of avian occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Eli T.; Simons, Theodore R.; Klein, Rob; McKerrow, Alexa

2016-01-01

ContextRemotely sensed differenced normalized burn ratios (DNBR) provide an index of fire severity across the footprint of a fire. We asked whether this index was useful for explaining patterns of bird occurrence within fire adapted xeric pine-oak forests of the southern Appalachian Mountains.ObjectivesWe evaluated the use of DNBR indices for linking ecosystem process with patterns of bird occurrence. We compared field-based and remotely sensed fire severity indices and used each to develop occupancy models for six bird species to identify patterns of bird occurrence following fire.MethodsWe identified and sampled 228 points within fires that recently burned within Great Smoky Mountains National Park. We performed avian point counts and field-assessed fire severity at each bird census point. We also used Landsat™ imagery acquired before and after each fire to quantify fire severity using DNBR. We used non-parametric methods to quantify agreement between fire severity indices, and evaluated single season occupancy models incorporating fire severity summarized at different spatial scales.ResultsAgreement between field-derived and remotely sensed measures of fire severity was influenced by vegetation type. Although occurrence models using field-derived indices of fire severity outperformed those using DNBR, summarizing DNBR at multiple spatial scales provided additional insights into patterns of occurrence associated with different sized patches of high severity fire.ConclusionsDNBR is useful for linking the effects of fire severity to patterns of bird occurrence, and informing how high severity fire shapes patterns of bird species occurrence on the landscape.

A model-based approach to wildland fire reconstruction using sediment charcoal records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Higuera, Philip E.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Kelly, Ryan; McLachlan, Jason S.

2017-01-01

Lake sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to reconstruct fire history, including the identification of past wildland fires. One challenge of applying sediment charcoal records to infer fire history is the separation of charcoal associated with local fire occurrence and charcoal originating from regional fire activity. Despite a variety of methods to identify local fires from sediment charcoal records, an integrated statistical framework for fire reconstruction is lacking. We develop a Bayesian point process model to estimate the probability of fire associated with charcoal counts from individual-lake sediments and estimate mean fire return intervals. A multivariate extension of the model combines records from multiple lakes to reduce uncertainty in local fire identification and estimate a regional mean fire return interval. The univariate and multivariate models are applied to 13 lakes in the Yukon Flats region of Alaska. Both models resulted in similar mean fire return intervals (100–350 years) with reduced uncertainty under the multivariate model due to improved estimation of regional charcoal deposition. The point process model offers an integrated statistical framework for paleofire reconstruction and extends existing methods to infer regional fire history from multiple lake records with uncertainty following directly from posterior distributions.

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy; Peterson, David L.; Riley, Karin L.; Yongquiang Liu,; Luce, Charles H.

2016-01-01

The historical and pre-settlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate—including short- and long-term droughts—are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem.

Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

2011-12-01

Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of area impacted by fire from the total available area within a given value of the Fire Occurrence Index (FOI) increased from 9.e-06 at FOI < 3 to 28.e-06 at 25 < FOI <= 28. Additionally, the model has revealed a new important relationship between fire occurrence, anthropogenic activity, and fire weather. Data analysis has demonstrated that human activity can alter the expected weather/fire occurrence relationships and result in considerable modifications of fire regimes contrary to the assumed ecological parameters. Specifically, between 2001 and 2009 over 50% of total fire impacted area burned during the low fire danger conditions (Canadian Fire Weather Index < 5). These findings and the FOM capabilities offer a new theoretical construct and an advanced tool for assessing the potential impacts of climate changes on fire regimes, particularly within landscapes which are impacted strongly by human activities. Future development of the FOM will focus on ingesting and internal downscaling of climate variables produced by General or Regional Circulation Models to develop scenarios of potential future change in fire occurrence under the influence of projected climate change at the appropriate regional or landscape scales.

Competing consumers: contrasting the patterns and impacts of fire and mammalian herbivory in Africa

PubMed Central

Archibald, Sally

2016-01-01

Fire and herbivory are the two consumers of above-ground biomass globally. They have contrasting impacts as they differ in terms of selectivity and temporal occurrence. Here, we integrate continental-scale data on fire and herbivory in Africa to explore (i) how environmental drivers constrain these two consumers and (ii) the degree to which each consumer affects the other. Environments conducive to mammalian herbivory are not necessarily the same as those conducive to fire, although their spheres of influence do overlap—especially in grassy ecosystems which are known for their frequent fires and abundance of large mammalian herbivores. Interactions between fire and herbivory can be competitive, facultative or antagonistic, and we explore this with reference to the potential for alternative ecosystem states. Although fire removes orders of magnitude more biomass than herbivory their methane emissions are very similar, and in the past, herbivores probably emitted more methane than fire. We contrast the type of herbivory and fire in different ecosystems to define ‘consumer-realms’. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’. PMID:27502374

Contribution of human, climate and biophysical drivers to the spatial distribution of wildfires in a French Mediterranean area: where do wildfires start and spread?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent; Moebius, Flavia

2013-04-01

Understanding the contribution of biophysical and human drivers to the spatial distribution of fires at regional scale has many ecological and economical implications in a context of on-going global changes. However these fire drivers often interact in complex ways, such that disentangling and assessing the relative contribution of human vs. biophysical factors remains a major challenge. Indeed, the identification of biophysical conditions that promote fires are confused by the inherent stochasticity in fire occurrences and fire spread on the one hand and, by the influence of human factors -through both fire ignition and suppression - on the other. Moreover, different factors may drive fire ignition and fire spread, in such a way that the areas with the highest density of ignitions may not coincide with those where large fires occur. In the present study, we investigated the drivers of fires ignition and spread in a Mediterranean area of southern France. We used a 17 years fire database (the PROMETHEE database from 1989-2006) combined with a set of 8 explanatory variables describing the spatial pattern in ignitions, vegetation and fire weather. We first isolated the weather conditions affecting the fire occurrence and their spread using a statistical model of the weather/fuel water status for each fire event.. The results of these statistical models were used to map the fire weather in terms of average number of days with suitable conditions for burning. Then, we used Boosted regression trees (BRT) models to assess the relative importance of the different variables on the distribution of wildfire with different sizes and to assess the relationship between each variables and fire occurrence and spread probabilities. We found that human activities explained up to 50 % of the spatial distribution of fire ignitions (SDI). The distribution of large fire was chiefly explained by fuel characteristics (about 40%). Surprisingly, the weather indices explained only 20 % of the SDI and its contribution does no vary according to the size of considered fire events. These results suggest that changes in fuel characteristics and human settlements/ activities, rather than weather conditions are the most likely to modify the future distribution of fires in this Mediterranean area. These conclusions provide useful information on the scenarios that could arise from the interaction of changes in climate and land cover for the Mediterranean area in the near future.

Quantifying the historic and future distribution of fire in Alaskan tundra ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, A. M.; Higuera, P. E.; Duffy, P. A.

2012-12-01

During the past 60 years fire has been relatively rare and small in size within tundra ecosystems. However, historical observations and paleoecological evidence indicates that fire regimes vary widely across Alaskan tundra, in both space and time. These lines of evidence suggest that fire occupies a highly specified niche or ecological space in Alaskan tundra, which may change significantly with future climate warming. The objective of this research was to quantify the relationships between fire occurrence and different seasonal climate variables, and to begin to make inferences about future distributions of fire across the tundra landscape. The results of this research will ultimately contribute to the goal of summarizing the linkages that exist among climate, vegetation, and fire in the historical record, and for making predictions concerning fire disturbance in tundra ecosystems throughout the next century. Historic tundra fires occurred non-randomly across space, and a relationship exists between fire occurrence and warm, dry climates. We quantified this relationship with generalized boosting models (GBM) using datasets of downscaled temperature and precipitation (2 km, 1971-2000), and historic records of tundra area burned (1950-2010). The GBM used six seasonal climate variables, focused on growing season temperature and precipitation, to predict the probability of fire occurrence over the 1950-2010 time period. To understand implications of these historic relationships given ongoing climate warming, we constructed future climatologies of temperature and precipitation for the five GCMs which performed best in Alaska under the IPCC AR4 A1B (middle-of-the-road) emissions scenario for the time period 2021-2050. The GBM performed well predicting the observed spatial distribution of tundra area burned, capturing key regions which experienced the most fire activity from 1950-2010. The mean temperature of the warmest month (MeanMaxTemp) was the most influential variable in the GBM, and partial dependence plots revealed a strong non-linear relationship between the probability of fire and MeanMaxTemp, with a distinct temperature threshold of approximately 12.0 oC. Climate projections in Alaskan tundra (2021-2050) from the five GCMs was on average 2.1 oC warmer (SD = 0.3 oC) than the 1971-2000 mean. During the 1971-2000 period, 62% of tundra existed above the 12.0 oC threshold. In contrast, four of the five GCMs predicted more tundra area will exist above this same temperature threshold during the 2021-2050 period (mean=77%, min=48%, max=93%), with large increases occurring on the North Slope. Ongoing work includes applying this GBM to future climate conditions to provide quantitative estimates of future tundra burning. Our results suggest that the ecological space that currently supports tundra burning will become more common during the next century. A more flammable tundra landscape could contribute to increased land surface temperatures through feedbacks between fire, increased carbon flux from the soil to atmosphere, and decreased albedo through vegetation succession. Given the rapid environmental changes projected for the Arctic throughout the next century, it is imperative that we understand when and where fire regimes are changing, not only across Alaskan tundra but across the global tundra biome as well.

Modeling forest fire occurrences using count-data mixed models in Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China.

PubMed

Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping

2015-01-01

Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence.

Modeling Forest Fire Occurrences Using Count-Data Mixed Models in Qiannan Autonomous Prefecture of Guizhou Province in China

PubMed Central

Ji, Ping

2015-01-01

Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence. PMID:25790309

Forest Fire Occurrence in Southern Counties, 1966-1975

Treesearch

M.L. Doolittle

1977-01-01

Forest fire occurrence data for individual protection units generally are unavailable outside particular state organization. Number of fires, area protected and fire occurrence rate (fires per 1,000,000 acres) from 1966 to 1975, are presented in tables for the 993 counties under protection in 13 southern states. These data are compared with data for the preceeding...

The relationship of large fire occurrence with drought and fire danger indices in the western USA, 1984-2008: The role of temporal scale

Treesearch

Karin L. Riley; John T. Abatzoglou; Isaac C. Grenfell; Anna E. Klene; Faith Ann Heinsch

2013-01-01

The relationship between large fire occurrence and drought has important implications for fire prediction under current and future climates. This study’s primary objective was to evaluate correlations between drought and fire-danger- rating indices representing short- and long-term drought, to determine which had the strongest relationships with large fire occurrence...

Relative effects of climatic and local factors on fire occurrence in boreal forest landscapes of northeastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhiwei; He, Hong S; Yang, Jian; Liu, Zhihua; Liang, Yu

2014-09-15

Fire significantly affects species composition, structure, and ecosystem processes in boreal forests. Our study objective was to identify the relative effects of climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity on fire occurrence in Chinese boreal forest landscapes. We used historical fire ignition for 1966-2005 and the statistical method of Kernel Density Estimation to derive fire-occurrence density (number of fires/km(2)). The Random Forest models were used to quantify the relative effects of climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity on fire-occurrence density. Our results showed that fire-occurrence density tended to be spatially clustered. Human-caused fire occurrence was highly clustered at the southern part of the region, where human population density is high (comprising about 75% of the area's population). In the north-central areas where elevations are the highest in the region and less densely populated, lightning-caused fires were clustered. Climate factors (e.g., fine fuel and duff moisture content) were important at both regional and landscape scales. Human activity factors (e.g., distance to nearest settlement and road) were secondary to climate as the primary fire occurrence factors. Predictions of fire regimes often assume a strong linkage between climate and fire but usually with less emphasis placed on the effects of local factors such as human activity. We therefore suggest that accurate forecasting of fire regime should include human influences such as those measured by forest proximity to roads and human settlements. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

FIRES: Fire Information Retrieval and Evaluation System - A program for fire danger rating analysis

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews; Larry S. Bradshaw

1997-01-01

A computer program, FIRES: Fire Information Retrieval and Evaluation System, provides methods for evaluating the performance of fire danger rating indexes. The relationship between fire danger indexes and historical fire occurrence and size is examined through logistic regression and percentiles. Historical seasonal trends of fire danger and fire occurrence can be...

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Mudelsee, Manfred

2008-03-01

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.

Utilization of geoinformation tools for the development of forest fire hazard mapping system: example of Pekan fire, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, Ahmad Rodzi; Setiawan, Iwan; Mansor, Shattri; Shariff, Abdul Rashid Mohamed; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Nuruddin, Ahmed

2009-12-01

A study in modeling fire hazard assessment will be essential in establishing an effective forest fire management system especially in controlling and preventing peat fire. In this paper, we have used geographic information system (GIS), in combination with other geoinformation technologies such as remote sensing and computer modeling, for all aspects of wild land fire management. Identifying areas that have a high probability of burning is an important component of fire management planning. The development of spatially explicit GIS models has greatly facilitated this process by allowing managers to map and analyze variables contributing to fire occurrence across large, unique geographic units. Using the model and its associated software engine, the fire hazard map was produced. Extensive avenue programming scripts were written to provide additional capabilities in the development of these interfaces to meet the full complement of operational software considering various users requirements. The system developed not only possesses user friendly step by step operations to deliver the fire vulnerability mapping but also allows authorized users to edit, add or modify parameters whenever necessary. Results from the model can support fire hazard mapping in the forest and enhance alert system function by simulating and visualizing forest fire and helps for contingency planning.

Comparing two models for post-wildfire debris flow susceptibility mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cramer, J.; Bursik, M. I.; Legorreta Paulin, G.

2017-12-01

Traditionally, probabilistic post-fire debris flow susceptibility mapping has been performed based on the typical method of failure for debris flows/landslides, where slip occurs along a basal shear zone as a result of rainfall infiltration. Recent studies have argued that post-fire debris flows are fundamentally different in their method of initiation, which is not infiltration-driven, but surface runoff-driven. We test these competing models by comparing the accuracy of the susceptibility maps produced by each initiation method. Debris flow susceptibility maps are generated according to each initiation method for a mountainous region of Southern California that recently experienced wildfire and subsequent debris flows. A multiple logistic regression (MLR), which uses the occurrence of past debris flows and the values of environmental parameters, was used to determine the probability of future debris flow occurrence. The independent variables used in the MLR are dependent on the initiation method; for example, depth to slip plane, and shear strength of soil are relevant to the infiltration initiation, but not surface runoff. A post-fire debris flow inventory serves as the standard to compare the two susceptibility maps, and was generated by LiDAR analysis and field based ground-truthing. The amount of overlap between the true locations where debris flow erosion can be documented, and where the MLR predicts high probability of debris flow initiation was statistically quantified. The Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) was used to compare the two models, and the results of the FMS comparison suggest that surface runoff-driven initiation better explains debris flow occurrence. Wildfire can breed conditions that induce debris flows in areas that normally would not be prone to them. Because of this, nearby communities at risk may not be equipped to protect themselves against debris flows. In California, there are just a few months between wildland fire season and the wet season to assess a community's risk and prepare. It is important, therefore, that researchers have a way to quickly and accurately assess the susceptibility for debris flows in recently burned areas.

Prediction suppression and surprise enhancement in monkey inferotemporal cortex.

PubMed

Ramachandran, Suchitra; Meyer, Travis; Olson, Carl R

2017-07-01

Exposing monkeys, over the course of days and weeks, to pairs of images presented in fixed sequence, so that each leading image becomes a predictor for the corresponding trailing image, affects neuronal visual responsiveness in area TE. At the end of the training period, neurons respond relatively weakly to a trailing image when it appears in a trained sequence and, thus, confirms prediction, whereas they respond relatively strongly to the same image when it appears in an untrained sequence and, thus, violates prediction. This effect could arise from prediction suppression (reduced firing in response to the occurrence of a probable event) or surprise enhancement (elevated firing in response to the omission of a probable event). To identify its cause, we compared firing under the prediction-confirming and prediction-violating conditions to firing under a prediction-neutral condition. The results provide strong evidence for prediction suppression and limited evidence for surprise enhancement. NEW & NOTEWORTHY In predictive coding models of the visual system, neurons carry signed prediction error signals. We show here that monkey inferotemporal neurons exhibit prediction-modulated firing, as posited by these models, but that the signal is unsigned. The response to a prediction-confirming image is suppressed, and the response to a prediction-violating image may be enhanced. These results are better explained by a model in which the visual system emphasizes unpredicted events than by a predictive coding model. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

2015-12-01

The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had meaningful result with artificial and natural effect. It is expected to predict future forest fire risk with future climate variables as the climate changes.

Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks.

PubMed

Bashari, Hossein; Naghipour, Ali Asghar; Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin; Sangoony, Hamed; Tahmasebi, Pejman

2016-09-01

Identifying areas that have a high risk of burning is a main component of fire management planning. Although the available tools can predict the fire risks, these are poor in accommodating uncertainties in their predictions. In this study, we accommodated uncertainty in wildfire prediction using Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). An influence diagram was developed to identify the factors influencing wildfire in arid and semi-arid areas of Iran, and it was populated with probabilities to produce a BBNs model. The behavior of the model was tested using scenario and sensitivity analysis. Land cover/use, mean annual rainfall, mean annual temperature, elevation, and livestock density were recognized as the main variables determining wildfire occurrence. The produced model had good accuracy as its ROC area under the curve was 0.986. The model could be applied in both predictive and diagnostic analysis for answering "what if" and "how" questions. The probabilistic relationships within the model can be updated over time using observation and monitoring data. The wildfire BBN model may be updated as new knowledge emerges; hence, it can be used to support the process of adaptive management.

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States.

PubMed

Littell, Jeremy S; Peterson, David L; Riley, Karin L; Liu, Yongquiang; Luce, Charles H

2016-07-01

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate - including short- and long-term droughts - are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek Fire near Hailey, central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skinner, Kenneth D.

2013-01-01

A preliminary hazard assessment was developed for debris-flow hazards in the 465 square-kilometer (115,000 acres) area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek fire near Hailey in central Idaho. The burn area covers all or part of six watersheds and selected basins draining to the Big Wood River and is at risk of substantial post-fire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the Intermountain Region in Western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within the burn area and to estimate the same for analyzed drainage basins within the burn area. Input data for the empirical models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm (13 mm); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm (19 mm); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm (22 mm). Estimated debris-flow probabilities for drainage basins upstream of 130 selected basin outlets ranged from less than 1 to 78 percent with the probabilities increasing with each increase in storm magnitude. Probabilities were high in three of the six watersheds. For the 25-year storm, probabilities were greater than 60 percent for 11 basin outlets and ranged from 50 to 60 percent for an additional 12 basin outlets. Probability estimates for stream segments within the drainage network can vary within a basin. For the 25-year storm, probabilities for stream segments within 33 basins were higher than the basin outlet, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the drainage network as well as basin outlets. Estimated debris-flow volumes for the three modeled storms range from a minimal debris flow volume of 10 cubic meters [m3]) to greater than 100,000 m3. Estimated debris-flow volumes increased with basin size and distance downstream. For the 25-year storm, estimated debris-flow volumes were greater than 100,000 m3 for 4 basins and between 50,000 and 100,000 m3 for 10 basins. The debris-flow hazard rankings did not result in the highest hazard ranking of 5, indicating that none of the basins had a high probability of debris-flow occurrence and a high debris-flow volume estimate. The hazard ranking was 4 for one basin using the 10-year-recurrence storm model and for three basins using the 25-year-recurrence storm model. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where post-wildfire remediation efforts should take place within the 2- to 3-year period of increased erosional vulnerability.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the Padua Fire of 2003, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2004-01-01

Results of a present preliminary assessment of the probability of debris-flow activity and estimates of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris flows issuing from basins burned by the Padua Fire of October 2003 in southern California in response to 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year recurrence, 1-hour duration rain storms are presented. The resulting probability maps are based on the application of a logistic multiple-regression model (Cannon and others, 2004) that describes the percent chance of debris-flow production from an individual basin as a function of burned extent, soil properties, basin gradients, and storm rainfall. The resulting peak discharge maps are based on application of a multiple-regression model (Cannon and others, 2004) that can be used to estimate debris-flow peak discharge at a basin outlet as a function of basin gradient, burn extent, and storm rainfall. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence for the Padua Fire range between 0 and 99% and estimates of debris-flow peak discharges range between 1211 and 6,096 ft3/s (34 to 173 m3/s). These maps are intended to identify those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and provide information for the preliminary design of mitigation measures and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Mountain fire, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Smoczyk, Greg M.; Reeves, Ryan R.

2013-01-01

Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. We use empirical models to predict the probability and magnitude of debris flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Mountain fire near Palm Springs, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–100 percent) of debris flow for six of the drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 8 of the 14 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest there is a high likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National Weather Service–issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

A neutral model of low-severity fire regimes

Treesearch

Don McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl

2008-01-01

Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire occurrence is a stochastic process, an understanding of baseline variability is necessary in order to identify constraints on surface fire regimes. With a suitable null, or neutral, model, characteristics of natural fire regimes estimated...

Knowledge-Based Systems Approach to Wilderness Fire Management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saveland, James M.

The 1988 and 1989 forest fire seasons in the Intermountain West highlight the shortcomings of current fire policy. To fully implement an optimization policy that minimizes the costs and net value change of resources affected by fire, long-range fire severity information is essential, yet lacking. This information is necessary for total mobility of suppression forces, implementing contain and confine suppression strategies, effectively dealing with multiple fire situations, scheduling summer prescribed burning, and wilderness fire management. A knowledge-based system, Delphi, was developed to help provide long-range information. Delphi provides: (1) a narrative of advice on where a fire might spread, if allowed to burn, (2) a summary of recent weather and fire danger information, and (3) a Bayesian analysis of long-range fire danger potential. Uncertainty is inherent in long-range information. Decision theory and judgment research can be used to help understand the heuristics experts use to make decisions under uncertainty, heuristics responsible both for expert performance and bias. Judgment heuristics and resulting bias are examined from a fire management perspective. Signal detection theory and receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis can be used to develop a long-range forecast to improve decisions. ROC analysis mimics some of the heuristics and compensates for some of the bias. Most importantly, ROC analysis displays a continuum of bias from which an optimum operating point can be selected. ROC analysis is especially appropriate for long-range forecasting since (1) the occurrence of possible future events is stated in terms of probability, (2) skill prediction is displayed, (3) inherent trade-offs are displayed, and (4) fire danger is explicitly defined. Statements on the probability of the energy release component of the National Fire Danger Rating System exceeding a critical value later in the fire season can be made early July in the Intermountain West. Delphi was evaluated formally and informally. Continual evaluation and feedback to update knowledge-based systems results in a repository for current knowledge, and a means to devise policy that will augment existing knowledge. Thus, knowledge-based systems can help implement adaptive resource management.

Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Ashley E. Van Beusekom; William A. Gould; A. Carolina Monmany; Azad Henareh Khalyani; Maya Quiñones; Stephen J. Fain; Maria José Andrade-Núñez; Grizelle González

2018-01-01

Abstract Assessing the relationships between weather patterns and the likelihood of fire occurrence in the Caribbean has not been as central to climate change research as in temperate regions, due in part to the smaller extent of individual fires. However, the cumulative effect of small frequent fires can shape large landscapes, and fire-prone ecosystems are abundant...

The tragic fire event of June 17, 2017 in Portugal: the meteorological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DaCamara, C.; Trigo, R. M.; Pinto, M. M.; Nunes, S. A.; Trigo, I. F.

2017-12-01

Like Mediterranean Europe, Portugal is prone to the occurrence of large and destructive wildfires that have serious impacts at the socio-economic and ecological levels. A tragic example is the episode of June 17, 2017 at Pedrógão Grande-Góis, with an official death toll of 64 people, almost 500 buildings destroyed and a continuous patch of more than 42 thousand hectares burned in one week. Climate and meteorology play a determinant role in the onset and spreading of large wildfire events in the Mediterranean basin. Two main kinds of atmospheric mechanisms may be identified. At the regional and the seasonal levels, a wetter-than usual winter followed by a warmer and drier than average spring makes the landscape prone to the occurrence of large fires. At the local and the daily scales, extreme weather conditions favor the ignition and spread of wildfires. This dual role may be assessed by means of indices of meteorological fire danger like FWI and DSR. We show that the severity of the 2017 fire season was correctly anticipated by means of a statistical model based on cumulated values of DSR starting on April 1. We then show that extreme danger of fire on June 17 was correctly forecasted for the area of Pedrógão Grande-Góis, based on values of estimated probability of exceedance of daily released energy by active fires. These two statistical approaches are on the basis of a website developed at Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL) at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon. With more than 400 registered users, the website relies on products disseminated by the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF), coordinated by IPMA, the Portuguese Weather Service.

Changing patterns of fire occurrence in proximity to forest edges, roads and rivers between NW Amazonian countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armenteras, Dolors; Barreto, Joan Sebastian; Tabor, Karyn; Molowny-Horas, Roberto; Retana, Javier

2017-06-01

Tropical forests in NW Amazonia are highly threatened by the expansion of the agricultural frontier and subsequent deforestation. Fire is used, both directly and indirectly, in Brazilian Amazonia to propagate deforestation and increase forest accessibility. Forest fragmentation, a measure of forest degradation, is also attributed to fire occurrence in the tropics. However, outside the Brazilian Legal Amazonia the role of fire in increasing accessibility and forest fragmentation is less explored. In this study, we compared fire regimes in five countries that share this tropical biome in the most north-westerly part of the Amazon Basin (Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Brazil). We analysed spatial differences in the timing of peak fire activity and in relation to proximity to roads and rivers using 12 years of MODIS active fire detections. We also distinguished patterns of fire in relation to forest fragmentation by analysing fire distance to the forest edge as a measure of fragmentation for each country. We found significant hemispheric differences in peak fire occurrence with the highest number of fires in the south in 2005 vs. 2007 in the north. Despite this, both hemispheres are equally affected by fire. We also found difference in peak fire occurrence by country. Fire peaked in February in Colombia and Venezuela, whereas it peaked in September in Brazil and Peru, and finally Ecuador presented two fire peaks in January and October. We confirmed the relationship between fires and forest fragmentation for all countries and also found significant differences in the distance between the fire and the forest edge for each country. Fires were associated with roads and rivers in most countries. These results can inform land use planning at the regional, national and subnational scales to minimize the contribution of road expansion and subsequent access to the Amazonian natural resources to fire occurrence and the associated deforestation and carbon emissions.

Effects of Lightning and Other Meteorological Factors on Fire Activity in the North American Boreal Forest: Implications for Fire Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, D.; Wang, J.; Ichoku, C.; Remer, L. A.

2010-01-01

The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000-2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-kin gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above 5700m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts-

Climatic and Landscape Influences on Fire Regimes from 1984 to 2010 in the Western United States

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C.

2015-01-01

An improved understanding of the relative influences of climatic and landscape controls on multiple fire regime components is needed to enhance our understanding of modern fire regimes and how they will respond to future environmental change. To address this need, we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of fire occurrence, size, and severity of large fires (> 405 ha) in the western United States from 1984–2010. We assessed the associations of these fire regime components with environmental variables, including short-term climate anomalies, vegetation type, topography, and human influences, using boosted regression tree analysis. Results showed that large fire occurrence, size, and severity each exhibited distinctive spatial and spatio-temporal patterns, which were controlled by different sets of climate and landscape factors. Antecedent climate anomalies had the strongest influences on fire occurrence, resulting in the highest spatial synchrony. In contrast, climatic variability had weaker influences on fire size and severity and vegetation types were the most important environmental determinants of these fire regime components. Topography had moderately strong effects on both fire occurrence and severity, and human influence variables were most strongly associated with fire size. These results suggest a potential for the emergence of novel fire regimes due to the responses of fire regime components to multiple drivers at different spatial and temporal scales. Next-generation approaches for projecting future fire regimes should incorporate indirect climate effects on vegetation type changes as well as other landscape effects on multiple components of fire regimes. PMID:26465959

The Influence of Land Use on the Grassland Fire Occurrence in the Northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China.

PubMed

Li, Yiping; Zhao, Jianjun; Guo, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Zhengxiang; Tan, Gang; Yang, Jihong

2017-02-23

Grassland, as one of the most important ecosystems on Earth, experiences fires that affect the local ecology, economy and society. Notably, grassland fires occur frequently each year in northeastern China. Fire occurrence is a complex problem with multiple causes, such as natural factors, human activities and land use. This paper investigates the disruptive effects of grassland fire in the northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. In this study, we relied on thermal anomaly detection from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to identify fire occurrences, and land use data were acquired by Landsat Thematic Mapper/Enhanced Thematic Mapper (TM/ETM). We discussed the relationship between land use and the spatial distribution of grassland fires. The results showed that the impact of land use on grassland fires was significant. Spatially, approximately 80% of grassland fires were clustered within 10 km of cultivated land, and grassland fires generally occurred in areas of intense human activity. The correlation between the spatial distribution of grassland fires and the land use degree in 2000, 2005 and 2010 was high, with R² values of 0.686, 0.716, 0.633, respectively ( p < 0.01). These results highlight the importance of the relationship between land use and grassland fire occurrence in the northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. This study provides significance for local fire management and prevention.

The Influence of Land Use on the Grassland Fire Occurrence in the Northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

PubMed Central

Li, Yiping; Zhao, Jianjun; Guo, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Zhengxiang; Tan, Gang; Yang, Jihong

2017-01-01

Grassland, as one of the most important ecosystems on Earth, experiences fires that affect the local ecology, economy and society. Notably, grassland fires occur frequently each year in northeastern China. Fire occurrence is a complex problem with multiple causes, such as natural factors, human activities and land use. This paper investigates the disruptive effects of grassland fire in the northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. In this study, we relied on thermal anomaly detection from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to identify fire occurrences, and land use data were acquired by Landsat Thematic Mapper/Enhanced Thematic Mapper (TM/ETM). We discussed the relationship between land use and the spatial distribution of grassland fires. The results showed that the impact of land use on grassland fires was significant. Spatially, approximately 80% of grassland fires were clustered within 10 km of cultivated land, and grassland fires generally occurred in areas of intense human activity. The correlation between the spatial distribution of grassland fires and the land use degree in 2000, 2005 and 2010 was high, with R2 values of 0.686, 0.716, 0.633, respectively (p < 0.01). These results highlight the importance of the relationship between land use and grassland fire occurrence in the northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. This study provides significance for local fire management and prevention. PMID:28241476

United States Geological Survey fire science: fire danger monitoring and forecasting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eidenshink, Jeff C.; Howard, Stephen M.

2012-01-01

Each day, the U.S. Geological Survey produces 7-day forecasts for all Federal lands of the distributions of number of ignitions, number of fires above a given size, and conditional probabilities of fires growing larger than a specified size. The large fire probability map is an estimate of the likelihood that ignitions will become large fires. The large fire forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on federal lands exceeding 100 acres in the forthcoming week. The ignition forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land greater than 1 acre in the forthcoming week. The extreme event forecast is the probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land that may exceed 5,000 acres in the forthcoming week.

The Science of Prescribed Fire: to Enable a Different Kind of Control

Treesearch

Timothy E. Paysen; Marcia G. Narog; Jack D. Cohen

1998-01-01

A paradigm shift from fire suppression to fire suppression and prescription requires a shift in emphasis from simply controlling wildfire occurrence and spread to one that includes controlling characteristics of prescribed fire. Suppression focuses on preventing unwanted effects that might result from wildfire occurrence. Prescription promotes desired effects by...

Spatial and temporal variability in fire occurrence within the Las Bayas Forestry Reserve, Durango, Mexico

Treesearch

S. A. Drury; T. T. Veblen

2008-01-01

Patterns of fire occurrence within the Las Bayas Forestry Reserve, Mexico are analyzed in relation to variability in climate, topography, and human land-use. Significantly more fires with shorter fire return intervals occurred from 1900 to 1950 than from 1950 to 2001. However, the frequency of widespread fire years (25% filter) was unchanged over time, as widespread...

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression.

PubMed

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-04-08

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression

PubMed Central

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-01-01

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale. PMID:28397745

Postwildfire debris flows hazard assessment for the area burned by the 2011 Track Fire, northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne C.; Darr, Michael J.; Cannon, Susan H.; Michael, John A.

2011-01-01

In June 2011, the Track Fire burned 113 square kilometers in Colfax County, northeastern New Mexico, and Las Animas County, southeastern Colorado, including the upper watersheds of Chicorica and Raton Creeks. The burned landscape is now at risk of damage from postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. This report presents a preliminary hazard assessment of the debris-flow potential from basins burned by the Track Fire. A pair of empirical hazard-assessment models developed using data from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows at the outlets of selected drainage basins within the burned area. The models incorporate measures of burn severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall to estimate the probability and volume of post-fire debris flows following the fire. In response to a design storm of 38 millimeters of rain in 30 minutes (10-year recurrence-interval), the probability of debris flow estimated for basins burned by the Track fire ranged between 2 and 97 percent, with probabilities greater than 80 percent identified for the majority of the tributary basins to Raton Creek in Railroad Canyon; six basins that flow into Lake Maloya, including the Segerstrom Creek and Swachheim Creek basins; two tributary basins to Sugarite Canyon, and an unnamed basin on the eastern flank of the burned area. Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from 30 cubic meters to greater than 100,000 cubic meters. The largest volumes (greater than 100,000 cubic meters) were estimated for Segerstrom Creek and Swachheim Creek basins, which drain into Lake Maloya. The Combined Relative Debris-Flow Hazard Ranking identifies the Segerstrom Creek and Swachheim Creek basins as having the highest probability of producing the largest debris flows. This finding indicates the greatest post-fire debris-flow impacts may be expected to Lake Maloya. In addition, Interstate Highway 25, Raton Creek and the rail line in Railroad Canyon, County road A-27, and State Highway 526 in Sugarite Canyon may also be affected where they cross drainages downstream from recently burned basins. Although this assessment indicates that a rather large debris flow (approximately 42,000 cubic meters) may be generated from the basin above the City of Raton (basin 9) in response to the design storm, the probability of such an event is relatively low (approximately 10 percent). Additional assessment is necessary to determine if the estimated volume of material is sufficient to travel into the City of Raton. In addition, even small debris flows may affect structures at or downstream from basin outlets and increase the threat of flooding downstream by damaging or blocking flood mitigation structures. The maps presented here may be used to prioritize areas where erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be necessary within a 2- to 3-year window of vulnerability following the Track Fire.

Fire in the Pliocene: a Record from the Southwest Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosell-Melé, A.; Moraleda, N.; Peterson, L.; Lawrence, K. T.

2015-12-01

There is a growing recognition of the importance of wildfires in the Earth system. The IPCC 5AR concluded that extensive areas of the world will increase substantially their probability to fire in the near future. This issue is of difficult evaluation given the multiplicity drivers of fire, including anthropogenic factors, and because fire was impossible to observe and analyse as a global phenomenon until well into the satellite era. The study of the Pliocene may however afford some glimpses to this issue as one of the best ancient-climate analogues of present-day and future greenhouse-warming conditions. The incidence of fire in the Pliocene has not been assessed in much detail. In fact, fossil evidence for fire activity over the last 50+ Ma from the Eocene through to the present day is scant, and is chiefly based on the presence of charred materials, or charcoal, which provides a partial perspective of fire occurrence, and the development of pyrophytic biomes such as savannahs and shrublands. Marine charcoal records, from widely separated geographic regions (North Pacific, Eastern south Atlantic, South China Sea), indicate low but significant fire activity throughout the Cenozoic until the late Miocene or Pliocene, when it increased, sometimes together with the rise of pyrophytic biomes. An alternative to the study of charcoal records is the analysis of polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are also generated in biomass combustion processes but are associated to soot and integrate the occurrence of fire over large regional provinces. One of the most abundant is retene, formed from the thermal degradation of resins. We have quantified PAHs in Site ODP 1125 which spans the Pliocene-Pleistocene, on the north slope of Chatham Rise, 600 km east of New Zealand's South Island. PAHs have been identified throughout the record, and namely during colder climatic episodes. Their abundance appears tightly linked to that of other terrigenous biomarkers like the n-alkanes, which are likely to result from changes in fluvial and aeolian inputs. Overall, they appear to increase from the Pliocene to present indicating a shift in fire regimes, although the role of transport processes in modulating fluxes of terrigenous biomarkers need to be investigated further.

Avian response to fire in pine–oak forests of Great Smoky Mountains National Park following decades of fire suppression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Eli T.; Simons, Theodore R.

2016-01-01

Fire suppression in southern Appalachian pine–oak forests during the past century dramatically altered the bird community. Fire return intervals decreased, resulting in local extirpation or population declines of many bird species adapted to post-fire plant communities. Within Great Smoky Mountains National Park, declines have been strongest for birds inhabiting xeric pine–oak forests that depend on frequent fire. The buildup of fuels after decades of fire suppression led to changes in the 1996 Great Smoky Mountains Fire Management Plan. Although fire return intervals remain well below historic levels, management changes have helped increase the amount of fire within the park over the past 20 years, providing an opportunity to study patterns of fire severity, time since burn, and bird occurrence. We combined avian point counts in burned and unburned areas with remote sensing indices of fire severity to infer temporal changes in bird occurrence for up to 28 years following fire. Using hierarchical linear models that account for the possibility of a species presence at a site when no individuals are detected, we developed occurrence models for 24 species: 13 occurred more frequently in burned areas, 2 occurred less frequently, and 9 showed no significant difference between burned and unburned areas. Within burned areas, the top models for each species included fire severity, time since burn, or both, suggesting that fire influenced patterns of species occurrence for all 24 species. Our findings suggest that no single fire management strategy will suit all species. To capture peak occupancy for the entire bird community within xeric pine–oak forests, at least 3 fire regimes may be necessary; one applying frequent low severity fire, another using infrequent low severity fire, and a third using infrequently applied high severity fire.

Assessment of Fire Occurrence and Future Fire Potential in Arctic Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H. F.; Jenkins, L. K.; Loboda, T. V.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Whitley, M. A.

2014-12-01

An analysis of the occurrence of fire in Alaskan tundra was completed using the relatively complete historical record of fire for the region from 1950 to 2013. Spatial fire data for Alaskan tundra regions were obtained from the Alaska Large Fire Database for the region defined from vegetation and ecoregion maps. A detailed presentation of fire records available for assessing the fire regime of the tundra regions of Alaska as well as results evaluating fire size, seasonality, and general geographic and temporal trends is included. Assessment of future fire potential was determined for three future climate scenarios at four locations across the Alaskan tundra using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) weather variables were used for historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) time periods. The database includes 908 fire points and 463 fire polygons within the 482,931 km2 of Alaskan tundra. Based on the polygon database 25,656 km2 (6,340,000 acres) has burned across the six tundra ecoregions since 1950. Approximately 87% of tundra fires start in June and July across all ecoregions. Combining information from the polygon and points data records, the estimated average fire size for fire in the Alaskan Arctic region is 28.1 km2 (7,070 acres), which is much smaller than in the adjacent boreal forest region, averaging 203 km2 for high fire years. The largest fire in the database is the Imuruk Basin Fire which burned 1,680 km2 in 1954 in the Seward Peninsula region (Table 1). Assessment of future fire potential shows that, in comparison with the historical fire record, fire occurrence in Alaskan tundra is expected to increase under all three climate scenarios. Occurrences of high fire weather danger (>10 FWI) are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude in all regions modeled. The changes in fire weather conditions are expected to vary from one region to another in seasonal occurrence as well as severity and frequency of high fire weather danger. While the Alaska Large Fire Database represents the best data available for the Alaskan Arctic, and is superior to many other regions around the world, particularly Arctic regions, these fire records need to be used with some caution due to the mixed origin and minimal validation of the data; this is reviewed in the presentation.

Management impacts on fire occurrence: A comparison of fire regimes of African and South American tropical savannas in different protected areas.

PubMed

Alvarado, Swanni T; Silva, Thiago Sanna Freire; Archibald, Sally

2018-07-15

Humans can alter fire dynamics in grassland systems by changing fire frequency, fire seasonality and fuel conditions. These changes have effects on vegetation structure and recovery, species composition, and ecosystem function. Understanding how human management can affect fire regimes is vital to detect potential changes in the resilience of plant communities, and to predict vegetation responses to human interventions. We evaluated the fire regimes of two recently protected areas in Madagascar (Ibity and Itremo NPA) and one in Brazil (Serra do Cipó NP) before and after livestock exclusion and fire suppression policies. We compare the pre- and post-management fire history in these areas and analyze differences in terms of total annual burned area, density of ignitions, burn scar size distribution, fire return period and seasonal fire distribution. More than 90% of total park areas were burned at least once during the studied period, for all parks. We observed a significant reduction in the number of ignitions for Ibity NPA and Serra do Cipó NP after livestock exclusion and active fire suppression, but no significant change in total burned area for each protected area. We also observed a seasonal shift in burning, with fires happening later in the fire season (October-November) after management intervention. However, the protected areas in Madagascar had shorter fire return intervals (3.23 and 1.82 years) than those in Brazil (7.91 years). Our results demonstrate that fire exclusion is unattainable, and probably unwarranted in tropical grassland conservation areas, but show how human intervention in fire and vegetation patterns can alter various aspects of the fire regimes. This information can help with formulating realistic and effective fire management policies in these valuable conservation areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of mangrove-marsh ecotones in subtropical coastal wetlands: fire, sea-level rise, and water levels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Thomas J.; Foster, Ann M.; Tiling-Range, Ginger; Jones, John W.

2013-01-01

Ecotones are areas of sharp environmental gradients between two or more homogeneous vegetation types. They are a dynamic aspect of all landscapes and are also responsive to climate change. Shifts in the position of an ecotone across a landscape can be an indication of a changing environment. In the coastal Everglades of Florida, USA, a dominant ecotone type is that of mangrove forest and marsh. However, there is a variety of plants that can form the marsh component, including sawgrass (Cladium mariscus [L.] Pohl), needlegrass rush (Juncus roemerianus Scheele), and spikerush (Eleocharis spp.). Environmental factors including water depth, soil type, and occurrence of fires vary across these ecotones, influencing their dynamics. Altered freshwater inflows from upstream and increasing sea level over the past 100 years may have also had an impact. We analyzed a time series of historical aerial photographs for a number of sites in the coastal Everglades and measured change in position of mangrove–marsh ecotones. For three sites, detailed maps were produced and the area of marsh, mangrove, and other habitats was determined for five periods spanning the years 1928 to 2004. Contrary to our initial hypothesis on fire, we found that fire did not prevent mangrove expansion into marsh areas but may in fact assist mangroves to invade some marsh habitats, especially sawgrass. Disparate patterns in mangrove–marsh change were measured at two downstream sites, both of which had multiple fires over from 1948 to 2004. No change in mangrove or marsh area was measured at one site. Mangrove area increased and marsh area decreased at the second of these fire-impacted sites. We measured a significant increase in mangrove area and a decline in marsh area at an upstream site that had little occurrence of fire. At this site, water levels have increased significantly as sea level has risen, and this has probably been a factor in the mangrove expansion.

Linking management effectiveness indicators to observed effects of protected areas on fire occurrence in the Amazon rainforest.

PubMed

Nolte, Christoph; Agrawal, Arun

2013-02-01

Management-effectiveness scores are used widely by donors and implementers of conservation projects to prioritize, track, and evaluate investments in protected areas. However, there is little evidence that these scores actually reflect the capacity of protected areas to deliver conservation outcomes. We examined the relation between indicators of management effectiveness in protected areas and the effectiveness of protected areas in reducing fire occurrence in the Amazon rainforest. We used data collected with the Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) scorecard, adopted by some of the world's largest conservation organizations to track management characteristics believed to be crucial for protected-area effectiveness. We used the occurrence of forest fires from 2000 through 2010 as a measure of the effect of protected areas on undesired land-cover change in the Amazon basin. We used matching to compare the estimated effect of protected areas with low versus high METT scores on fire occurrence. We also estimated effects of individual protected areas on fire occurrence and explored the relation between these effects and METT scores. The relations between METT scores and effects of protected areas on fire occurrence were weak. Protected areas with higher METT scores in 2005 did not seem to have performed better than protected areas with lower METT scores at reducing fire occurrence over the last 10 years. Further research into the relations between management-effectiveness indicators and conservation outcomes in protected areas seems necessary, and our results show that the careful application of matching methods can be a suitable method for that purpose. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Springs Fire, Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.

2014-01-01

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. In this report, empirical models are used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Springs fire in Ventura County, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–80 percent) of debris flow for 9 of the 99 drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Predictions of debris-flow volume suggest that debris flows may entrain a significant volume of material, with 28 of the 99 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 10,000 cubic meters. These results of the relative combined hazard analysis suggest there is a moderate likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, wildlife, and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National Weather Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches, and Warnings, and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

Using the NASA NEESPI Portal Data to Study Land, Climate, and Socio-Economic Changes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leptoukh, Gregory; Shen, Suhung; Csiszar, Ivan; Romanov, Peter; Loboda, Tatiana; Gerasimov, Irina

2008-01-01

A large number of fires detected in July of 2003 - a nearly 200-time increase in fire detections compared to other years during 2001-2006. despite the summer monsoon suppression of large fire occurrence. Traditional vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) included in operational fire danger assessment provide little information on the fuel state in this ecosystem pre- or post-fire. No considerable differences in surface temperature and soil moisture in July were observed between the catastrophic year of 2003 and the two subsequent years of low summer fire occurrence of 2004 and 2005. However, the temporal analysis indicates that dry spring conditions in 2003 (detected through low soil moisture measurements in April and May) may have led to a stressed vegetative state and created conditions conducive to catastrophic fire occurrence.

[Research progress in post-fire debris flow].

PubMed

Di, Xue-ying; Tao, Yu-zhu

2013-08-01

The occurrence of the secondary disasters of forest fire has significant impacts on the environment quality and human health and safety. Post-fire debris flow is one of the most hazardous secondary disasters of forest fire. To understand the occurrence conditions of post-fire debris flow and to master its occurrence situation are the critical elements in post-fire hazard assessment. From the viewpoints of vegetation, precipitation threshold and debris flow material sources, this paper elaborated the impacts of forest fire on the debris flow, analyzed the geologic and geomorphic conditions, precipitation and slope condition that caused the post-fire debris flow as well as the primary mechanisms of debris-flow initiation caused by shallow landslide or surface runoff, and reviewed the research progress in the prediction and forecast of post-fire debris flow and the related control measures. In the future research, four aspects to be focused on were proposed, i. e., the quantification of the relationships between the fire behaviors and environmental factors and the post-fire debris flow, the quantitative research on the post-fire debris flow initiation and movement processes, the mechanistic model of post-fire debris flow, and the rapid and efficient control countermeasures of post-fire debris flow.

Spatial patterns of modern period human-caused fire occurrence in the Missouri Ozark Highlands

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. Healy; Stephen R. Shifley; Eric J. Gustafson

2007-01-01

The spatial pattern of forest fire locations is important in the study of the dynamics of fire disturbance. In this article we used a spatial point process modeling approach to quantitatively study the effects of land cover, topography, roads, municipalities, ownership, and population density on fire occurrence reported between 1970 and 2002 in the Missouri Ozark...

Fire and ecosystem change in the Arctic across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denis, Elizabeth H.; Pedentchouk, Nikolai; Schouten, Stefan; Pagani, Mark; Freeman, Katherine H.

2017-06-01

Fire has been an important component of ecosystems on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Fire can affect vegetation distribution, the carbon cycle, and climate. The relationship between climate and fire is complex, in large part because of a key role of vegetation type. Here, we evaluate regional scale fire-climate relationships during a past global warming event, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), in order to understand how vegetation influenced the links between climate and fire occurrence in the Arctic region. To document concurrent changes in climate, vegetation, and fire occurrence, we evaluated biomarkers, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), terpenoids, and alkanes, from the PETM interval at a marine depositional site (IODP site 302, the Lomonosov Ridge) in the Arctic Ocean. Biomarker, fossil, and isotope evidence from site 302 indicates that terrestrial vegetation changed during the PETM. The abundance of the C29n-alkanes, pollen, and the ratio of leaf-wax n-alkanes relative to diterpenoids all indicate that proportional contributions from angiosperm vegetation increased relative to that from gymnosperms. These changes accompanied increased moisture transport to the Arctic and higher temperatures, as recorded by previously published proxy records. We find that PAH abundances were elevated relative to total plant biomarkers throughout the PETM, and suggest that fire occurrence increased relative to plant productivity. The fact that fire frequency or prevalence may have increased during wetter Arctic conditions suggests that changes in fire occurrence were not a simple function of aridity, as is commonly conceived. Instead, we suggest that the climate-driven ecological shift to angiosperm-dominated vegetation was what led to increased fire occurrence. Potential increases in terrestrial plant biomass that arose from warm, wet, and high CO2 conditions were possibly attenuated by biomass burning associated with compositional changes in the plant community.

Paired charcoal and tree-ring records of high-frequency Holocene fire from two New Mexico bog sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Anderson, R. Scott; Jass, R.B.; Toney, J.L.; Baisan, C.H.

2008-01-01

Two primary methods for reconstructing paleofire occurrence include dendrochronological dating of fire scars and stand ages from live or dead trees (extending back centuries into the past) and sedimentary records of charcoal particles from lakes and bogs, providing perspectives on fire history that can extend back for many thousands of years. Studies using both proxies have become more common in regions where lakes are present and fire frequencies are low, but are rare where high-frequency surface fires dominate and sedimentary deposits are primarily bogs and wetlands. Here we investigate sedimentary and fire-scar records of fire in two small watersheds in northern New Mexico, in settings recently characterised by relatively high-frequency fire where bogs and wetlands (Chihuahuen??os Bog and Alamo Bog) are more common than lakes. Our research demonstrates that: (1) essential features of the sedimentary charcoal record can be reproduced between multiple cores within a bog deposit; (2) evidence from both fire-scarred trees and charcoal deposits documents an anomalous lack of fire since ???1900, compared with the remainder of the Holocene; (3) sedimentary charcoal records probably underestimate the recurrence of fire events at these high-frequency fire sites; and (4) the sedimentary records from these bogs are complicated by factors such as burning and oxidation of these organic deposits, diversity of vegetation patterns within watersheds, and potential bioturbation by ungulates. We consider a suite of particular challenges in developing and interpreting fire histories from bog and wetland settings in the Southwest. The identification of these issues and constraints with interpretation of sedimentary charcoal fire records does not diminish their essential utility in assessing millennial-scale patterns of fire activity in this dry part of North America. ?? IAWF 2008.

An Evaluation of Historical Fire Occurrence, Drought and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Southcentral United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney, M.; Stambaugh, M. C.

2016-12-01

Wildfire occurrence in the forested ecosystems of the southcentral United States is driven by conditions of drought. Historically, fire intervals varied temporally and spatially - forced by climate, humans, and environmental conditions. Thus, proxy records are required to assess the relationships between fire occurrence, drought, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fire scar data from tree-rings are well-suited to assess historical fire regimes in this region, paired with reconstructions of drought and ENSO that have been developed from networks of ring-width chronologies across the United States. This study combines fire-scar data from twelve different sites in the southcentral United States, including two new fire-history reconstructions. Fire data incorporates 665 fires across Eastern Oklahoma and Northern Texas from 1637-2014. These robust reconstructions of post oak (Quercus stellata) evaluate the variability in fire activity and its association to drought and ENSO. Climate-explained growth variance in post-oak chronologies is strong in this region, providing powerful proxy information in the derived chronologies. In general, most fires occur during the La Niña portion of the ENSO cycle. Many severe fires correspond with drought, and results from super-posed epoch analysis suggest a significant relationship between fire event years and drought conditions in the full period of record. Analysis reveals differences in the relationships of fire, drought and ENSO through time, corresponding to changes in human settlement in the region. Understanding the spatial and temporal relationships that exist between fire occurrence, drought, and ENSO aid in quantifying disturbance characteristics and their associations to climate in the forested ecosystems of the southcentral United States.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tom Elicson; Bentley Harwood; Jim Bouchard

Over a 12 month period, a fire PRA was developed for a DOE facility using the NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC fire PRA methodology. The fire PRA modeling included calculation of fire severity factors (SFs) and fire non-suppression probabilities (PNS) for each safe shutdown (SSD) component considered in the fire PRA model. The SFs were developed by performing detailed fire modeling through a combination of CFAST fire zone model calculations and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). Component damage times and automatic fire suppression system actuation times calculated in the CFAST LHS analyses were then input to a time-dependent model of fire non-suppression probability. Themore » fire non-suppression probability model is based on the modeling approach outlined in NUREG/CR-6850 and is supplemented with plant specific data. This paper presents the methodology used in the DOE facility fire PRA for modeling fire-induced SSD component failures and includes discussions of modeling techniques for: • Development of time-dependent fire heat release rate profiles (required as input to CFAST), • Calculation of fire severity factors based on CFAST detailed fire modeling, and • Calculation of fire non-suppression probabilities.« less

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

2018-01-01

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

Identifying the location of fire refuges in wet forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Berry, Laurence E; Driscoll, Don A; Stein, John A; Blanchard, Wade; Banks, Sam C; Bradstock, Ross A; Lindenmayer, David B

2015-12-01

The increasing frequency of large, high-severity fires threatens the survival of old-growth specialist fauna in fire-prone forests. Within topographically diverse montane forests, areas that experience less severe or fewer fires compared with those prevailing in the landscape may present unique resource opportunities enabling old-growth specialist fauna to survive. Statistical landscape models that identify the extent and distribution of potential fire refuges may assist land managers to incorporate these areas into relevant biodiversity conservation strategies. We used a case study in an Australian wet montane forest to establish how predictive fire simulation models can be interpreted as management tools to identify potential fire refuges. We examined the relationship between the probability of fire refuge occurrence as predicted by an existing fire refuge model and fire severity experienced during a large wildfire. We also examined the extent to which local fire severity was influenced by fire severity in the surrounding landscape. We used a combination of statistical approaches, including generalized linear modeling, variogram analysis, and receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve analysis (ROC AUC). We found that the amount of unburned habitat and the factors influencing the retention and location of fire refuges varied with fire conditions. Under extreme fire conditions, the distribution of fire refuges was limited to only extremely sheltered, fire-resistant regions of the landscape. During extreme fire conditions, fire severity patterns were largely determined by stochastic factors that could not be predicted by the model. When fire conditions were moderate, physical landscape properties appeared to mediate fire severity distribution. Our study demonstrates that land managers can employ predictive landscape fire models to identify the broader climatic and spatial domain within which fire refuges are likely to be present. It is essential that within these envelopes, forest is protected from logging, roads, and other developments so that the ecological processes related to the establishment and subsequent use of fire refuges are maintained.

Emergency Assessment of Postfire Debris-Flow Hazards for the 2009 Station Fire, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.; Staley, Dennis M.; Worstell, Bruce B.

2009-01-01

This report presents an emergency assessment of potential debris-flow hazards from basins burned by the 2009 Station fire in Los Angeles County, southern California. Statistical-empirical models developed for postfire debris flows are used to estimate the probability and volume of debris-flow production from 678 drainage basins within the burned area and to generate maps of areas that may be inundated along the San Gabriel mountain front by the estimated volume of material. Debris-flow probabilities and volumes are estimated as combined functions of different measures of basin burned extent, gradient, and material properties in response to both a 3-hour-duration, 1-year-recurrence thunderstorm and to a 12-hour-duration, 2-year recurrence storm. Debris-flow inundation areas are mapped for scenarios where all sediment-retention basins are empty and where the basins are all completely full. This assessment provides critical information for issuing warnings, locating and designing mitigation measures, and planning evacuation timing and routes within the first two winters following the fire. Tributary basins that drain into Pacoima Canyon, Big Tujunga Canyon, Arroyo Seco, West Fork of the San Gabriel River, and Devils Canyon were identified as having probabilities of debris-flow occurrence greater than 80 percent, the potential to produce debris flows with volumes greater than 100,000 m3, and the highest Combined Relative Debris-Flow Hazard Ranking in response to both storms. The predicted high probability and large magnitude of the response to such short-recurrence storms indicates the potential for significant debris-flow impacts to any buildings, roads, bridges, culverts, and reservoirs located both within these drainages and downstream from the burned area. These areas will require appropriate debris-flow mitigation and warning efforts. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence greater than 80 percent, debris-flow volumes between 10,000 and 100,000 m3, and high Combined Relative Debris-Flow Hazard Rankings were estimated in response to both short recurrence-interval (1- and 2-year) storms for all but the smallest basins along the San Gabriel mountain front between Big Tujunga Canyon and Arroyo Seco. The combination of high probabilities and large magnitudes determined for these basins indicates significant debris-flow hazards for neighborhoods along the mountain front. When the capacity of sediment-retention basins is exceeded, debris flows may be deposited in neighborhoods and streets and impact infrastructure between the mountain front and Foothill Boulevard. In addition, debris flows may be deposited in neighborhoods immediately below unprotected basins. Hazards to neighborhoods and structures at risk from these events will require appropriate debris-flow mitigation and warning efforts.

Relative impact of previous disturbance history on the likelihood of additional disturbance in the Northern United States Forest Service USFS Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, A. J.

2015-12-01

The Landsat archive is increasingly being used to detect trends in the occurrence of forest disturbance. Beyond information about the amount of area affected, forest managers need to know if and how disturbance regimes change. The National Forest System (NFS) has developed a comprehensive plan for carbon monitoring that requires a detailed temporal mapping of forest disturbances across 75 million hectares. A long-term annual time series that shows the timing, extent, and type of disturbance beginning in 1990 and ending in 2011 has been prepared for several USFS Regions, including the Northern Region. Our mapping starts with an automated detection of annual disturbances using a time series of historical Landsat imagery. Automated detections are meticulously inspected, corrected and labeled using various USFS ancillary datasets. The resulting maps of verified disturbance show the timing and types are fires, harvests, insect activity, disease, and abiotic (wind, drought, avalanche) damage. Also, the magnitude of each change event is modeled in terms of the proportion of canopy cover lost. The sequence of disturbances for every pixel since 1990 has been consistently mapped and is available across the entirety of NFS. Our datasets contain sufficient information to describe the frequency of stand replacement, as well as how often disturbance results in only a partial loss of canopy. This information provides empirical insight into how an initial disturbance may predispose a stand to further disturbance, and it also show a climatic signal in the occurrence of processes such as fire and insect epidemics. Thus, we have the information to model the likelihood of occurrence of certain disturbances after a given event (i.e. if we have a fire in the past what does that do to the likelihood of occurrence of insects in the future). Here, we explore if previous disturbance history is a reliable predictor of additional disturbance in the future and we present results of applying logistic regression to obtain predicted probabilities of occurrence of additional disturbance types. We describe responses in additional disturbance and prominent trends for each major forest type.

Multiscale perspectives of fire, climate and humans in western North America and the Jemez Mountains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swetnam, Thomas W.; Farella, Joshua; Roos, Christopher I.; Liebmann, Matthew J.; Falk, Donald A.; Allen, Craig D.

2016-01-01

Interannual climate variations have been important drivers of wildfire occurrence in ponderosa pine forests across western North America for at least 400 years, but at finer scales of mountain ranges and landscapes human land uses sometimes over-rode climate influences. We reconstruct and analyse effects of high human population densities in forests of the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico from ca 1300 CE to Present. Prior to the 1680 Pueblo Revolt, human land uses reduced the occurrence of widespread fires while simultaneously adding more ignitions resulting in many small-extent fires. During the 18th and 19th centuries, wet/dry oscillations and their effects on fuels dynamics controlled widespread fire occurrence. In the late 19th century, intensive livestock grazing disrupted fuels continuity and fire spread and then active fire suppression maintained the absence of widespread surface fires during most of the 20th century. The abundance and continuity of fuels is the most important controlling variable in fire regimes of these semi-arid forests. Reduction of widespread fires owing to reduction of fuel continuity emerges as a hallmark of extensive human impacts on past forests and fire regimes.

A multivariate decision tree analysis of biophysical factors in tropical forest fire occurrence

Treesearch

Rey S. Ofren; Edward Harvey

2000-01-01

A multivariate decision tree model was used to quantify the relative importance of complex hierarchical relationships between biophysical variables and the occurrence of tropical forest fires. The study site is the Huai Kha Kbaeng wildlife sanctuary, a World Heritage Site in northwestern Thailand where annual fires are common and particularly destructive. Thematic...

Wildfire risk estimation in the Mediterranean area

Treesearch

A.A. Ager; H.K. Preisler; B. Arca; D Spano; M. Salis

2014-01-01

We analyzed wildland fire occurrence and size data from Sardinia, Italy, and Corsica, France, to examine spatiotemporal patterns of fire occurrence in relation to weather, land use, anthropogenic features, and time of year. Fires on these islands are largely human caused and can be attributed to negligence, agro-pastoral land use, and arson. Of particular interest was...

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Rim Fire, Stanislaus National Forest and Yosemite National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.

2013-01-01

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. In this report, empirical models are used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Rim fire in Yosemite National Park and the Stanislaus National Forest, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–80 percent) of debris flow for 28 of the 1,238 drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Predictions of debris-flow volume suggest that debris flows may entrain a significant volume of material, with 901 of the 1,238 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 10,000 cubic meters. These results of the relative combined hazard analysis suggest there is a moderate likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, wildlife, and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National-Weather-Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

Assessing the predictability of fire occurrence and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2014-01-01

Most fire protection agencies throughout the world have developed forest fire risk forecast systems, usually building upon existing fire danger indices and meteorological forecast data. In this context, the daily predictability of wildfires is of utmost importance in order to allow the fire protection agencies to issue timely fire hazard alerts. In this study, we address the predictability of daily fire occurrence using the components of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and related variables calculated from the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis, ERA-Interim. We develop daily fire occurrence models in peninsular Spain for the period 1990-2008 and, considering different minimum burned area thresholds for fire definition, assess their ability to reproduce the inter-annual fire frequency variability. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climate/fuel conditions. We then extend the analysis in order to assess the predictability of monthly burned areas. The sensitivity of the models to the level of spatial aggregation of the data is also evaluated. Additionally, we investigate the gain in model performance with the inclusion of socioeconomic and land use/land cover (LULC) covariates in model formulation. Fire occurrence models have attained good performance in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, being able to faithfully reproduce the inter-annual variability of fire frequency. Total area burned has exhibited some dependence on the meteorological drivers, although model performance was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire occurrence prediction in the study area. The results were improved when using aggregated data across regions compared to when data were sampled at the grid-box level. The inclusion of socioeconomic and LULC covariates contributed marginally to the improvement of the models, and in most cases attained no relevant contribution to total explained variance - excepting northern Spain, where anthropogenic factors are known to be the major driver of fires. Models of monthly fire counts performed better in the case of fires larger than 0.1 ha, and for the rest of the thresholds (1, 10 and 100 ha) the daily occurrence models improved the predicted inter-annual variability, indicating the added value of daily models. Fire frequency predictions may provide a preferable basis for past fire history reconstruction, long-term monitoring and the assessment of future climate impacts on fire regimes across regions, posing several advantages over burned area as a response variable. Our results leave the door open to the development a more complex modelling framework based on daily data from numerical climate model outputs based on the FWI system.

Broadleaf deciduous forest counterbalanced the direct effect of climate on Holocene fire regime in hemiboreal/boreal region (NE Europe)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feurdean, Angelica; Veski, Siim; Florescu, Gabriela; Vannière, Boris; Pfeiffer, Mirjam; O'Hara, Robert B.; Stivrins, Normunds; Amon, Leeli; Heinsalu, Atko; Vassiljev, Jüri; Hickler, Thomas

2017-08-01

Disturbances by fire are essential for the functioning of boreal/hemiboreal forests, but knowledge of long-term fire regime dynamics is limited. We analysed macrocharcoal morphologies and pollen of a sediment record from Lake Lielais Svētiņu (eastern Latvia), and in conjunction with fire traits analysis present the first record of Holocene variability in fire regime, fuel sources and fire types in boreal forests of the Baltic region. We found a phase of moderate to high fire activity during the cool and moist early (mean fire return interval; mFRI of ∼280 years; 11,700-7500 cal yr BP) and the late (mFRI of ∼190 years; 4500-0 cal yr BP) Holocene and low fire activity (mFRI of ∼630 years) during the Holocene Thermal Optimum (7500-4500 cal yr BP). Charcoal morphotypes and the pollen record show the predominance of frequent surface fires, occasionally transitioning to the crown during Pinus sylvestris-Betula boreal forests and less frequent surface fires during the dominance of temperate deciduous forests. In contrast to the prevailing opinion that fires in boreal forests are mostly low to moderate severity surface fires, we found evidence for common occurrence of stand-replacing crown fires in Picea abies canopy. Our results highlight that charcoal morphotypes analysis allows for distinguishing the fuel types and surface from crown fires, therefore significantly advancing our interpretation of fire regime. Future warmer temperatures and increase in the frequency of dry spells and abundant biomass accumulation can enhance the fire risk on the one hand, but will probably promote the expansion of broadleaf deciduous forests to higher latitudes, on the other hand. By highlighting the capability of broadleaf deciduous forests to act as fire-suppressing landscape elements, our results suggest that fire activity may not increase in the Baltic area under future climate change.

Are prescribed fire and thinning dominant processes affecting snag occurrence at a landscape scale?

DOE PAGES

Zarnoch, Stanley J.; Blake, John I.; Parresol, Bernard R.

2014-11-01

Snags are standing dead trees that are an important component in the nesting habitat of birds and other species. Although snag availability is believed to limit populations in managed and non-managed forests, little data are available to evaluate the relative effect of stand conditions and management on snag occurrence. We analyzed point sample data from an intensive forest inventory within an 80,000 ha landscape for four major forest types to support the hypotheses that routine low-intensity prescribed fire would increase, and thinning would decrease, snag occurrence. We employed path analysis to define a priori causal relationships to determine the directmore » and indirect effects of site quality, age, relative stand density index and fire for all forest types and thinning effects for loblolly pine and longleaf pine. Stand age was an important direct effect for loblolly pine, mixed pine-hardwoods and hardwoods, but not for longleaf pine. Snag occurrence in loblolly pine was increased by prescribed fire and decreased by thinning which confirmed our initial hypotheses. Although fire was not important in mixed pine-hardwoods, it was for hardwoods but the relationship depended on site quality. For longleaf pine the relative stand density index was the dominant variable affecting snag occurrence, which increased as the density index decreased. Site quality, age and thinning had significant indirect effects on snag occurrence in longleaf pine through their effects on the density index. Although age is an important condition affecting snag occurrence for most forest types, path analysis revealed that fire and density management practices within certain forest types can also have major beneficial effects, particularly in stands less than 60 years old.« less

Multiscale perspectives of fire, climate and humans in western North America and the Jemez Mountains, USA.

PubMed

Swetnam, Thomas W; Farella, Joshua; Roos, Christopher I; Liebmann, Matthew J; Falk, Donald A; Allen, Craig D

2016-06-05

Interannual climate variations have been important drivers of wildfire occurrence in ponderosa pine forests across western North America for at least 400 years, but at finer scales of mountain ranges and landscapes human land uses sometimes over-rode climate influences. We reconstruct and analyse effects of high human population densities in forests of the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico from ca 1300 CE to Present. Prior to the 1680 Pueblo Revolt, human land uses reduced the occurrence of widespread fires while simultaneously adding more ignitions resulting in many small-extent fires. During the 18th and 19th centuries, wet/dry oscillations and their effects on fuels dynamics controlled widespread fire occurrence. In the late 19th century, intensive livestock grazing disrupted fuels continuity and fire spread and then active fire suppression maintained the absence of widespread surface fires during most of the 20th century. The abundance and continuity of fuels is the most important controlling variable in fire regimes of these semi-arid forests. Reduction of widespread fires owing to reduction of fuel continuity emerges as a hallmark of extensive human impacts on past forests and fire regimes.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Authors.

Multiscale perspectives of fire, climate and humans in western North America and the Jemez Mountains, USA

PubMed Central

Farella, Joshua; Liebmann, Matthew J.; Falk, Donald A.; Allen, Craig D.

2016-01-01

Interannual climate variations have been important drivers of wildfire occurrence in ponderosa pine forests across western North America for at least 400 years, but at finer scales of mountain ranges and landscapes human land uses sometimes over-rode climate influences. We reconstruct and analyse effects of high human population densities in forests of the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico from ca 1300 CE to Present. Prior to the 1680 Pueblo Revolt, human land uses reduced the occurrence of widespread fires while simultaneously adding more ignitions resulting in many small-extent fires. During the 18th and 19th centuries, wet/dry oscillations and their effects on fuels dynamics controlled widespread fire occurrence. In the late 19th century, intensive livestock grazing disrupted fuels continuity and fire spread and then active fire suppression maintained the absence of widespread surface fires during most of the 20th century. The abundance and continuity of fuels is the most important controlling variable in fire regimes of these semi-arid forests. Reduction of widespread fires owing to reduction of fuel continuity emerges as a hallmark of extensive human impacts on past forests and fire regimes. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216525

A Survey of Rural Population Density and Forest Fire Occurrence in the South, 1956-1970

Treesearch

A.T. Altobellis

1983-01-01

Rural residents comprise a high risk potential population regarding person-caused wildfire incidence in the South. However, rural population density (RPD=numker of people per square mile) was found to be indeterminately associated with fire occurrence rate (FOR=number of fires per million acres protected) in protected lands in 13 Southern states. Thus, changes in...

Termites Are Resistant to the Effects of Fire at Multiple Spatial Scales.

PubMed

Avitabile, Sarah C; Nimmo, Dale G; Bennett, Andrew F; Clarke, Michael F

2015-01-01

Termites play an important ecological role in many ecosystems, particularly in nutrient-poor arid and semi-arid environments. We examined the distribution and occurrence of termites in the fire-prone, semi-arid mallee region of south-eastern Australia. In addition to periodic large wildfires, land managers use fire as a tool to achieve both asset protection and ecological outcomes in this region. Twelve taxa of termites were detected by using systematic searches and grids of cellulose baits at 560 sites, clustered in 28 landscapes selected to represent different fire mosaic patterns. There was no evidence of a significant relationship between the occurrence of termite species and time-since-fire at the site scale. Rather, the occurrence of species was related to habitat features such as the density of mallee trees and large logs (>10 cm diameter). Species richness was greater in chenopod mallee vegetation on heavier soils in swales, rather than Triodia mallee vegetation of the sandy dune slopes. At the landscape scale, there was little evidence that the frequency of occurrence of termite species was related to fire, and no evidence that habitat heterogeneity generated by fire influenced termite species richness. The most influential factor at the landscape scale was the environmental gradient represented by average annual rainfall. Although termites may be associated with flammable habitat components (e.g. dead wood), they appear to be buffered from the effects of fire by behavioural traits, including nesting underground, and the continued availability of dead wood after fire. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis that a fine-scale, diverse mosaic of post-fire age-classes will enhance the diversity of termites. Rather, termites appear to be resistant to the effects of fire at multiple spatial scales.

Termites Are Resistant to the Effects of Fire at Multiple Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Avitabile, Sarah C.; Nimmo, Dale G.; Bennett, Andrew F.; Clarke, Michael F.

2015-01-01

Termites play an important ecological role in many ecosystems, particularly in nutrient-poor arid and semi-arid environments. We examined the distribution and occurrence of termites in the fire-prone, semi-arid mallee region of south-eastern Australia. In addition to periodic large wildfires, land managers use fire as a tool to achieve both asset protection and ecological outcomes in this region. Twelve taxa of termites were detected by using systematic searches and grids of cellulose baits at 560 sites, clustered in 28 landscapes selected to represent different fire mosaic patterns. There was no evidence of a significant relationship between the occurrence of termite species and time-since-fire at the site scale. Rather, the occurrence of species was related to habitat features such as the density of mallee trees and large logs (>10 cm diameter). Species richness was greater in chenopod mallee vegetation on heavier soils in swales, rather than Triodia mallee vegetation of the sandy dune slopes. At the landscape scale, there was little evidence that the frequency of occurrence of termite species was related to fire, and no evidence that habitat heterogeneity generated by fire influenced termite species richness. The most influential factor at the landscape scale was the environmental gradient represented by average annual rainfall. Although termites may be associated with flammable habitat components (e.g. dead wood), they appear to be buffered from the effects of fire by behavioural traits, including nesting underground, and the continued availability of dead wood after fire. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis that a fine-scale, diverse mosaic of post-fire age-classes will enhance the diversity of termites. Rather, termites appear to be resistant to the effects of fire at multiple spatial scales. PMID:26571383

A fire history derived from Pinus resinosa Ait. for the Islands of Eastern Lac La Croix, Minnesota, USA.

PubMed

Johnson, Lane B; Kipfmueller, Kurt F

2016-06-01

We reconstructed fire occurrence near a fur-trade era canoe travel corridor (used ca. 1780-1802) in the Quetico-Superior region west of Lake Superior to explore the possibility of human influence on pre-fire suppression rates of fire occurrence. Our research objectives were to (1) examine the spatial and temporal patterns of fire in the study area, (2) test fires' strength of association with regional drought, and (3) assess whether reconstructed fire frequencies could be explained by observed rates of lightning fire ignition over the modern period of record. We developed a 420-year fire history for the eastern portion of Lac La Croix in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW). Seventy-one fire-scarred samples were collected from remnant Pinus resinosa Ait. (red pine) stumps and logs from thirteen distinct island and three mainland forest stands. Collectively these samples contained records of 255 individual fire scars representing 79 fire events from 1636 to 1933 (study area mean fire intervals [MFI] 3.8 yr). Reconstructed fires were spatially and temporally asynchronous and not strongly associated with regional drought (P > 0.05). When compared to the conservative, tree-ring reconstructed estimate of historical fire occurrence and modern lightning-caused fires (1929-2012), a noticeable change in the distribution and frequency of fires within the study area was evident with only two lightning-ignited island fires since 1934 in the study area. Our results suggest a high likelihood that indigenous land use contributed to surface fire ignitions within our study area and highlights the importance of examining the potential effects of past indigenous land use when determining modern approaches to fire and wilderness management in fire-adapted ecosystems.

Long-term temporal changes in the occurrence of a high forest fire danger in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mäkelä, H. M.; Laapas, M.; Venäläinen, A.

2012-08-01

Climate variation and change influence several ecosystem components including forest fires. To examine long-term temporal variations of forest fire danger, a fire danger day (FDD) model was developed. Using mean temperature and total precipitation of the Finnish wildfire season (June-August), the model describes the climatological preconditions of fire occurrence and gives the number of fire danger days during the same time period. The performance of the model varied between different regions in Finland being best in south and west. In the study period 1908-2011, the year-to-year variation of FDD was large and no significant increasing or decreasing tendencies could be found. Negative slopes of linear regression lines for FDD could be explained by the simultaneous, mostly not significant increases in precipitation. Years with the largest wildfires did not stand out from the FDD time series. This indicates that intra-seasonal variations of FDD enable occurrence of large-scale fires, despite the whole season's fire danger is on an average level. Based on available monthly climate data, it is possible to estimate the general fire conditions of a summer. However, more detailed input data about weather conditions, land use, prevailing forestry conventions and socio-economical factors would be needed to gain more specific information about a season's fire risk.

Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, A.; Finney, M.

2009-04-01

Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and intensity maps over large areas (10,000 - 2,000,000 ha). The MTT algorithm is parallelized for multi-threaded processing and is imbedded in a number of research and applied fire modeling applications. High performance computers (e.g., 32-way 64 bit SMP) are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the 32 bit desktop FlamMap3 program (www.fire.org). Extensive testing has shown that this algorithm can replicate large fire boundaries in the heterogeneous landscapes that typify much of the wildlands in the western U.S. In this paper, we describe the application of the MTT algorithm to understand spatial patterns of burn probability (BP), and to analyze wildfire risk to key human and ecological values. The work is focused on a federally-managed 2,000,000 ha landscape in the central interior region of Oregon State, USA. The fire-prone study area encompasses a wide array of topography and fuel types and a number of highly valued resources that are susceptible to fire. We quantitatively defined risk as the product of the probability of a fire and the resulting consequence. Burn probabilities at specific intensity classes were estimated for each 100 x 100 m pixel by simulating 100,000 wildfires under burn conditions that replicated recent severe wildfire events that occurred under conditions where fire suppression was generally ineffective (97th percentile, August weather). We repeated the simulation under milder weather (70th percentile, August weather) to replicate a "wildland fire use scenario" where suppression is minimized to manage fires for fuel reduction. The average BP was calculated for these scenarios to examine variation within and among a number of key designated management units, including forest-urban interface, conservation areas, protected species habitat, municipal watersheds, recreation areas, and others. To quantify risk, we developed a number of loss-benefit functions using fire effects models that relate fire intensity to tree mortality and biomass consumption. We used these relationships to measure the change in highly-valued old forest, designated wildlife conservation areas, aboveground carbon, surface fuels, and other wildland values. The loss-benefit functions were then coupled with BP's for different intensity classes to estimate expected value change (risk) for each pixel. For a subset of the study area we also measured the change in risk from fuels management for selected resources. Estimates of BP, excluding non burnable fuels (water, rock), fro the simulations ranged from 0.00001 to 0.026 within the study area, with a mean value of 0.007. In comparison, the annual burn probability estimated from fire occurrence data within the study area (1910 - 2003) was 0.0022. The estimate from simulations represents the average probability of a random pixel burning from a single large fire that escapes suppression, hence some difference is expected. Variation in BP among designated conservation and fire protection units was relatively large and illustrated spatial differences in wildfire likelihood among highly values resources. For instance, among the 130 different forest-urban interface areas, average BP varied from 0.0001 to 0.02. Average BP for nesting sites used by the endangered Northern spotted owl averaged 0.04 and varied from 0.001 to 0.01. The marginal BP's for high fire intensities was higher for many of the conservation areas compared the surrounding managed forest. Conservation areas that were located on the lee side of non-burnable fuels such as lava flows and lakes showed markedly reduced BP. When wildfire probabilities were combined with habitat loss functions for the Northern spotted owl, we observed expected loss from a random wildfire event ranging from 0.0 to 9.4% with a mean value of 1.5%. Expected loss was strongly correlated with BP for owl habitat, apparently because fires at very low intensities caused understory mortality and reduced stand canopy closure below minimum levels. The effect of simulating strategic fuel treatments on a subunit of the area resulted in significant decrease in expected loss of owl habitat. The effect of changing weather from a severe to mild (97th to 70th) percentile weather resulted in a dramatic 8-fold drop in BP and reduced the average wildfire size. However, the reduction was not uniform with the departures well correlated with specific fuel models. In total, this work demonstrated the application of wildfire spread models to quantitative risk assessment for fuels management on federally-managed lands in the U.S. The analyses revealed spatial variation in BP that is useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and guiding other wildfire mitigation activities. The work also illuminated the conflict between biodiversity conservation efforts on federally-managed lands and the high wildfire risk on fire-prone landscapes.

Wildland fire limits subsequent fire occurrence

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Carol Miller; Lisa M. Holsinger; Scott Baggett; Benjamin J. Bird

2016-01-01

Several aspects of wildland fire are moderated by site- and landscape-level vegetation changes caused by previous fire, thereby creating a dynamic where one fire exerts a regulatory control on subsequent fire. For example, wildland fire has been shown to regulate the size and severity of subsequent fire. However, wildland fire has the potential to influence...

The impact of land ownership, firefighting, and reserve status on fire probability in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starrs, Carlin Frances; Butsic, Van; Stephens, Connor; Stewart, William

2018-03-01

The extent of wildfires in the western United States is increasing, but how land ownership, firefighting, and reserve status influence fire probability is unclear. California serves as a unique natural experiment to estimate the impact of these factors, as ownership is split equally between federal and non-federal landowners; there is a relatively large proportion of reserved lands where extractive uses are prohibited and fire suppression is limited; and land ownership and firefighting responsibility are purposefully not always aligned. Panel Poisson regression techniques and pre-regression matching were used to model changes in annual fire probability from 1950-2015 on reserve and non-reserve lands on federal and non-federal ownerships across four vegetation types: forests, rangelands, shrublands, and forests without commercial species. Fire probability was found to have increased over time across all 32 categories. A marginal effects analysis showed that federal ownership and firefighting was associated with increased fire probability, and that the difference in fire probability on federal versus non-federal lands is increasing over time. Ownership, firefighting, and reserve status, played roughly equal roles in determining fire probability, and were found to have much greater influence than average maximum temperature (°C) during summer months (June, July, August), average annual precipitation (cm), and average annual topsoil moisture content by volume, demonstrating the critical role these factors play in western fire regimes and the importance of including them in future analysis focused on understanding and predicting wildfire in the Western United States.

Deforestation and Forest Fires in Roraima and Their Relationship with Phytoclimatic Regions in the Northern Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barni, Paulo Eduardo; Pereira, Vaneza Barreto; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar; Barbosa, Reinaldo Imbrozio

2015-05-01

Deforestation and forest fires in the Brazilian Amazon are a regional-scale anthropogenic process related to biomass burning, which has a direct impact on global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. Containment of this process requires characterizing its spatial distribution and that of the environmental factors related to its occurrence. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of deforested areas and forest fires in the State of Roraima from 2000 to 2010. We mapped deforested areas and forest fires using Landsat images and associated their occurrence with two phytoclimatic zones: zone with savanna influence (ZIS), and zone without savanna influence (ZOS). Total deforested area during the interval was estimated at 3.06 × 103 km2 (ZIS = 55 %; ZOS = 45 %) while total area affected by forest fires was estimated at 3.02 × 103 km2 (ZIS = 97.7 %; ZOS = 2.3 %). Magnitude of deforestation in Roraima was not related to the phytoclimatic zones, but small deforested areas (≤17.9 ha) predominated in ZOS while larger deforestation classes (>17.9 ha) predominated in ZIS, which is an area with a longer history of human activities. The largest occurrence of forest fires was observed in the ZIS in years with El Niño events. Our analysis indicates that the areas most affected by forest fires in Roraima during 2000-2010 were associated with strong climatic events and the occurrence these fires was amplified in ZIS, a sensitive phytoclimatic zone with a higher risk of anthropogenic fires given its drier climate and open forest structure.

Comparing neuronal spike trains with inhomogeneous Poisson distribution: evaluation procedure and experimental application in cases of cyclic activity.

PubMed

Fiore, Lorenzo; Lorenzetti, Walter; Ratti, Giovannino

2005-11-30

A procedure is proposed to compare single-unit spiking activity elicited in repetitive cycles with an inhomogeneous Poisson process (IPP). Each spike sequence in a cycle is discretized and represented as a point process on a circle. The interspike interval probability density predicted for an IPP is computed on the basis of the experimental firing probability density; differences from the experimental interval distribution are assessed. This procedure was applied to spike trains which were repetitively induced by opening-closing movements of the distal article of a lobster leg. As expected, the density of short interspike intervals, less than 20-40 ms in length, was found to lie greatly below the level predicted for an IPP, reflecting the occurrence of the refractory period. Conversely, longer intervals, ranging from 20-40 to 100-120 ms, were markedly more abundant than expected; this provided evidence for a time window of increased tendency to fire again after a spike. Less consistently, a weak depression of spike generation was observed for longer intervals. A Monte Carlo procedure, implemented for comparison, produced quite similar results, but was slightly less precise and more demanding as concerns computation time.

The roles of fire in Holocene ecosystem changes of West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, L. M.; Schefuß, E.

2018-01-01

The climate changes associated with the Holocene wet phase in the Sahara, the African Humid Period, are subject to ongoing debate discussing interactions between climate and vegetation and possible feedbacks between vegetation, albedo, desertification, and dust. However, very little attention has been given to the role of fire in shaping the land cover, although it is known that fires are important in the formation and consolidation of the African savanna. To fill this gap, we investigated the interaction between precipitation changes, vegetation shifts, and fire occurrence in West Africa by combining stable isotope measurements on plant waxes with pollen and micro-charcoal counts of marine sediments retrieved offshore of Cape Blanc. Our study focuses on the roles of fire at the dry limit of savanna during the Holocene evolution of precipitation changes indicating that the impact of fire during a relative wet climate differs from that during aridification. During the humid early Holocene, increased savanna extension and diversification ran parallel to increased fire occurrence. In contrast, after aridification of northern Africa started at the end of the African Humid Period, a maximum in fire occurrence correlated with a deterioration of the vegetation promoting desertification.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature.

PubMed

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C; Dey, Daniel; Muzika, Rose Marie

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature

PubMed Central

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Dey, Daniel

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature. PMID:28704457

Observational evidence on the effects of mega-fires on the frequency of hydrogeomorphic hazards. The case of the Peloponnese fires of 2007 in Greece.

PubMed

Diakakis, M; Nikolopoulos, E I; Mavroulis, S; Vassilakis, E; Korakaki, E

2017-08-15

Even though rare, mega-fires raging during very dry and windy conditions, record catastrophic impacts on infrastructure, the environment and human life, as well as extremely high suppression and rehabilitation costs. Apart from the direct consequences, mega-fires induce long-term effects in the geomorphological and hydrological processes, influencing environmental factors that in turn can affect the occurrence of other natural hazards, such as floods and mass movement phenomena. This work focuses on the forest fire of 2007 in Peloponnese, Greece that to date corresponds to the largest fire in the country's record that burnt 1773km 2 , causing 78 fatalities and very significant damages in property and infrastructure. Specifically, this work examines the occurrence of flood and mass movement phenomena, before and after this mega-fire and analyses different influencing factors to investigate the degree to which the 2007 fire and/or other parameters have affected their frequency. Observational evidence based on several data sources collected during the period 1989-2016 show that the 2007 fire has contributed to an increase of average flood and mass movement events frequency by approximately 3.3 and 5.6 times respectively. Fire affected areas record a substantial increase in the occurrence of both phenomena, presenting a noticeably stronger increase compared to neighbouring areas that have not been affected. Examination of the monthly occurrence of events showed an increase even in months of the year were rainfall intensity presented decreasing trends. Although no major land use changes has been identified and chlorophyll is shown to recover 2years after the fire incident, differences on the type of vegetation as tall forest has been substituted with lower vegetation are considered significant drivers for the observed increase in flood and mass movement frequency in the fire affected areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest fire spatial pattern analysis in Galicia (NW Spain).

PubMed

Fuentes-Santos, I; Marey-Pérez, M F; González-Manteiga, W

2013-10-15

Knowledge of fire behaviour is of key importance in forest management. In the present study, we analysed the spatial structure of forest fire with spatial point pattern analysis and inference techniques recently developed in the Spatstat package of R. Wildfires have been the primary threat to Galician forests in recent years. The district of Fonsagrada-Ancares is one of the most seriously affected by fire in the region and, therefore, the central focus of the study. Our main goal was to determine the spatial distribution of ignition points to model and predict fire occurrence. These data are of great value in establishing enhanced fire prevention and fire fighting plans. We found that the spatial distribution of wildfires is not random and that fire occurrence may depend on ownership conflicts. We also found positive interaction between small and large fires and spatial independence between wildfires in consecutive years. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation.

PubMed

Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira; Nepstad, Daniel; Coe, Michael; Rodrigues, Hermann; Assunção, Renato

2011-07-01

Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems, the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the future. Here we present a probabilistic model of human-induced fire occurrence for the Amazon that integrates the effects of a series of anthropogenic factors with climatic conditions described by vapor pressure deficit. The model was calibrated using NOAA-12 night satellite hot pixels for 2003 and validated for the years 2002, 2004, and 2005. Assessment of the fire risk map yielded fitness values > 85% for all months from 2002 to 2005. Simulated fires exhibited high overlap with NOAA-12 hot pixels regarding both spatial and temporal distributions, showing a spatial fit of 50% within a radius of 11 km and a maximum yearly frequency deviation of 15%. We applied this model to simulate fire regimes in the Amazon until 2050 using IPCC's A2 scenario climate data from the Hadley Centre model and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of deforestation and road expansion from SimAmazonia. Results show that the combination of these scenarios may double forest fire occurrence outside protected areas (PAs) in years of extreme drought, expanding the risk of fire even to the northwestern Amazon by midcentury. In particular, forest fires may increase substantially across southern and southwestern Amazon, especially along the highways slated for paving and in agricultural zones. Committed emissions from Amazon forest fires and deforestation under a scenario of global warming and uncurbed deforestation may amount to 21 +/- 4 Pg of carbon by 2050. BAU deforestation may increase fires occurrence outside PAs by 19% over the next four decades, while climate change alone may account for a 12% increase. In turn, the combination of climate change and deforestation would boost fire occurrence outside PAs by half during this period. Our modeling results, therefore, confirm the synergy between the two Ds of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries).

Predicting Fire Severity and Hydrogeomorphic Effects for Wildland Fire Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyde, K.; Woods, S. W.; Calkin, D.; Ryan, K.; Keane, R.

2007-12-01

The Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) uses the Fire Spread Probability (FSPro) model to predict the spatial extent of fire, and to assess values-at-risk within probable spread zones. This information is used to support Appropriate Management Response (AMR), which involves decision making regarding fire-fighter deployment, fire suppression requirements, and identification of areas where fire may be safely permitted to take its course. Current WFDSS assessments are generally limited to a binary prediction of whether or not a fire will reach a given location and an assessment of the infrastructure which may be damaged or destroyed by fire. However, an emerging challenge is to expand the capabilities of WFDSS so that it also estimates the probable fire severity, and hence the effect on soil, vegetation and on hydrologic and geomorphic processes such as runoff and soil erosion. We present a conceptual framework within which derivatives of predictive fire modelling are used to predict impacts upon vegetation and soil, from which fire severity and probable post-fire watershed response can be inferred, before a fire actually occurs. Fire severity predictions are validated using Burned Area Reflectance Classification imagery. Recent tests indicate that satellite derived BARC images are a simple and effective means to predict post-fire erosion response based on relative vegetation disturbance. A fire severity prediction which reasonably approximates a BARC image may therefore be used to assess post-fire erosion and flood potential before fire reaches an area. This information may provide a new avenue of reliable support for fire management decisions.

Simulating the Effects of Fire on Forests in the Russian Far East: Integrating a Fire Danger Model and the FAREAST Forest Growth Model Across a Complex Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherman, N. J.; Loboda, T.; Sun, G.; Shugart, H. H.; Csiszar, I.

2008-12-01

The remaining natural habitat of the critically endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) and Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) is a vast, biologically and topographically diverse area in the Russian Far East (RFE). Although wildland fire is a natural component of ecosystem functioning in the RFE, severe or repeated fires frequently re-set the process of forest succession, which may take centuries to return the affected forests to the pre-fire state and thus significantly alters habitat quality and long-term availability. The frequency of severe fire events has increased over the last 25 years, leading to irreversible modifications of some parts of the species' habitats. Moreover, fire regimes are expected to continue to change toward more frequent and severe events under the influence of climate change. Here we present an approach to developing capabilities for a comprehensive assessment of potential Amur tiger and leopard habitat availability throughout the 21st century by integrating regionally parameterized fire danger and forest growth models. The FAREAST model is an individual, gap-based model that simulates forest growth in a single location and demonstrates temporally explicit forest succession leading to mature forests. Including spatially explicit information on probabilities of fire occurrence at 1 km resolution developed from the regionally specific remotely -sensed data-driven fire danger model improves our ability to provide realistic long-term projections of potential forest composition in the RFE. This work presents the first attempt to merge the FAREAST model with a fire disturbance model, to validate its outputs across a large region, and to compare it to remotely-sensed data products as well as in situ assessments of forest structure. We ran the FAREAST model at 1,000 randomly selected points within forested areas in the RFE. At each point, the model was calibrated for temperature, precipitation, slope, elevation, and fire probability. The output of the model includes biomass estimates for 44 tree species that occur in the RFE, grouped by genus. We compared the model outputs with land cover classifications derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and LIDAR-based estimates of biomass across the entire region, and Russian forest inventory records at selected sites. Overall, we find that the FAREAST estimates of forest biomass and general composition are consistent with the observed distribution of forest types.

Postwildfire preliminary debris flow hazard assessment for the area burned by the 2011 Las Conchas Fire in north-central New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne C.; Darr, Michael J.; Cannon, Susan H.; Michael, John A.

2011-01-01

The Las Conchas Fire during the summer of 2011 was the largest in recorded history for the state of New Mexico, burning 634 square kilometers in the Jemez Mountains of north-central New Mexico. The burned landscape is now at risk of damage from postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. This report presents a preliminary hazard assessment of the debris-flow potential from 321 basins burned by the Las Conchas Fire. A pair of empirical hazard-assessment models developed using data from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows at the outlets of selected drainage basins within the burned area. The models incorporate measures of burn severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. In response to a design storm of 28.0 millimeters of rain in 30 minutes (10-year recurrence interval), the probabilities of debris flows estimated for basins burned by the Las Conchas Fire were greater than 80 percent for two-thirds (67 percent) of the modeled basins. Basins with a high (greater than 80 percent) probability of debris-flow occurrence were concentrated in tributaries to Santa Clara and Rio del Oso Canyons in the northeastern part of the burned area; some steep areas in the Valles Caldera National Preserve, Los Alamos, and Guaje Canyons in the east-central part of the burned area; tributaries to Peralta, Colle, Bland, and Cochiti canyons in the southwestern part of the burned area; and tributaries to Frijoles, Alamo, and Capulin Canyons in the southeastern part of the burned area (within Bandelier National Monument). Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from 400 cubic meters to greater than 72,000 cubic meters. The largest volumes (greater than 40,000 cubic meters) were estimated for basins in Santa Clara, Los Alamos, and Water Canyons, and for two basins at the northeast edge of the burned area tributary to Rio del Oso and Vallecitos Creek. The Combined Relative Debris-Flow Hazard Rankings identify the areas of highest probability of the largest debris flows. Basins with high Combined Relative Debris-Flow Hazard Rankings include upper Santa Clara Canyon in the northern section of the burn scar, and portions of Peralta, Colle, Bland, Cochiti, Capulin, Alamo, and Frijoles Canyons in the southern section of the burn scar. Three basins with high Combined Relative Debris-Flow Hazard Rankings also occur in areas upstream from the city of Los Alamos—the city is home to and surrounded by numerous technical sites for the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Potential debris flows in the burned area could affect the water supply for Santa Clara Pueblo and several recreational lakes, as well as recreational and archeological resources in Bandelier National Monument. Debris flows could damage bridges and culverts along State Highway 501 and other roadways. Additional assessment is necessary to determine if the estimated volume of material is sufficient to travel into areas downstream from the modeled basins along the valley floors, where they could affect human life, property, agriculture, and infrastructure in those areas. Additionally, further investigation is needed to assess the potential for debris flows to affect structures at or downstream from basin outlets and to increase the threat of flooding downstream by damaging or blocking flood mitigation structures. The maps presented here may be used to prioritize areas where erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be necessary within a 2- to 3-year window of vulnerability following the Las Conchas Fire.

Probability fire weather forecasts .. show promise in 3-year trial

Treesearch

Paul G. Scowcroft

1970-01-01

Probability fire weather forecasts were compared with categorical and climatological forecasts in a trial in southern California during the 1965-1967 fire seasons. Equations were developed to express the reliability of forecasts and degree of skill shown by the forecaster. Evaluation of 336 daily reports suggests that probability forecasts were more reliable. For...

Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States

Treesearch

LaWen Hollingsworth; James Menakis

2010-01-01

This project mapped wildland fire potential (WFP) for the conterminous United States by using the large fire simulation system developed for Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System. The large fire simulation system, referred to here as LFSim, consists of modules for weather generation, fire occurrence, fire suppression, and fire growth modeling. Weather was generated with...

A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson

2004-01-01

Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages--fire ignition and fire initiation. However, the exponential and Weibull fire-...

Future changes in South American biomass distributions, biome distributions and plant trait spectra is dependent on applied atmospheric forcings.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langan, Liam; Scheiter, Simon; Higgins, Steven

2017-04-01

It remains poorly understood why the position of the forest-savanna biome boundary, in a domain defined by precipitation and temperature, differs in South America, Africa and Australia. Process based Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are a valuable tool to investigate the determinants of vegetation distributions, however, many DGVMs fail to predict the spatial distribution or indeed presence of the South American savanna biome. Evidence suggests fire plays a significant role in mediating forest-savanna biome boundaries, however, fire alone appear to be insufficient to predict these boundaries in South America. We hypothesize that interactions between precipitation, constraints on tree rooting depth and fire, affect the probability of savanna occurrence and the position of the savanna-forest boundary. We tested our hypotheses at tropical forest and savanna sites in Brazil and Venezuela using a novel DGVM, aDGVM2, which allows plant trait spectra, constrained by trade-offs between traits, to evolve in response to abiotic and biotic conditions. Plant hydraulics is represented by the cohesion-tension theory, this allowed us to explore how soil and plant hydraulics control biome distributions and plant traits. The resulting community trait distributions are emergent properties of model dynamics. We showed that across much of South America the biome state is not determined by climate alone. Interactions between tree rooting depth, fire and precipitation affected the probability of observing a given biome state and the emergent traits of plant communities. Simulations where plant rooting depth varied in space provided the best match to satellite derived biomass estimates and generated biome distributions that reproduced contemporary biome maps well. Future projections showed that biomass distributions, biome distributions and plant trait spectra will change, however, the magnitude of these changes are highly dependent on the applied atmospheric forcings.

Fire management in central America

Treesearch

Andrea L. Koonce; Armando González-Cabán

1992-01-01

Information on fire management operations in Central America is scant. To evaluate the known level of fire occurrence in seven countries in that area, fire management officers were asked to provide information on their fire control organizations and on any available fire statistics. The seven countries surveyed were Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua,...

Deforestation and forest fires in Roraima and their relationship with phytoclimatic regions in the northern Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Barni, Paulo Eduardo; Pereira, Vaneza Barreto; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar; Barbosa, Reinaldo Imbrozio

2015-05-01

Deforestation and forest fires in the Brazilian Amazon are a regional-scale anthropogenic process related to biomass burning, which has a direct impact on global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. Containment of this process requires characterizing its spatial distribution and that of the environmental factors related to its occurrence. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of deforested areas and forest fires in the State of Roraima from 2000 to 2010. We mapped deforested areas and forest fires using Landsat images and associated their occurrence with two phytoclimatic zones: zone with savanna influence (ZIS), and zone without savanna influence (ZOS). Total deforested area during the interval was estimated at 3.06 × 10(3) km(2) (ZIS = 55 %; ZOS = 45 %) while total area affected by forest fires was estimated at 3.02 × 10(3) km(2) (ZIS = 97.7 %; ZOS = 2.3 %). Magnitude of deforestation in Roraima was not related to the phytoclimatic zones, but small deforested areas (≤17.9 ha) predominated in ZOS while larger deforestation classes (>17.9 ha) predominated in ZIS, which is an area with a longer history of human activities. The largest occurrence of forest fires was observed in the ZIS in years with El Niño events. Our analysis indicates that the areas most affected by forest fires in Roraima during 2000-2010 were associated with strong climatic events and the occurrence these fires was amplified in ZIS, a sensitive phytoclimatic zone with a higher risk of anthropogenic fires given its drier climate and open forest structure.

Understanding fire drivers and relative impacts in different Chinese forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Guo, Futao; Su, Zhangwen; Wang, Guangyu; Sun, Long; Tigabu, Mulualem; Yang, Xiajie; Hu, Haiqing

2017-12-15

In this study, spatial patterns and driving factors of fires were identified from 2000 to 2010 using Ripley's K (d) function and logistic regression (LR) model in two different forest ecosystems of China: the boreal forest (Daxing'an Mountains) and sub-tropical forest (Fujian province). Relative effects of each driving factor on fire occurrence were identified based on standardized coefficients in the LR model. Results revealed that fires were spatially clustered and that fire drivers vary amongst differing forest ecosystems in China. Fires in the Daxing'an Mountains respond primarily to human factors, of which infrastructure is recognized as the most influential. In contrast, climate factors played a critical role in fire occurrence in Fujian, of which the temperature of fire season was found to be of greater importance than other climate factors. Selected factors can predict nearly 80% of the total fire occurrence in the Daxing'an Mountains and 66% in Fujian, wherein human and climate factors contributed the greatest impact in the two study areas, respectively. This study suggests that different fire prevention and management strategies are required in the areas of study, as significant variations of the main fire-driving exist. Rapid socio-economic development has produced similar effects in different forest ecosystems within China, implying a strong correlation between socio-economic development and fire regimes. It can be concluded that the influence of human factors will increase in the future as China's economy continues to grow - an issue of concern that should be further addressed in future national fire management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Mountain Pine Beetle on Fuels and Expected Fire Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA

PubMed Central

Schoennagel, Tania; Veblen, Thomas T.; Negron, José F.; Smith, Jeremy M.

2012-01-01

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [∼30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior. PMID:22272268

Study on Climate and Grassland Fire in HulunBuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Meifang; Zhao, Jianjun; Guo, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Zhengxiang; Tan, Gang; Yang, Jihong

2017-01-01

Grassland fire is one of the most important disturbance factors of the natural ecosystem. Climate factors influence the occurrence and development of grassland fire. An analysis of the climate conditions of fire occurrence can form the basis for a study of the temporal and spatial variability of grassland fire. The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of monthly time scale climate factors on the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir, located in the northeast of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in China. Based on the logistic regression method, we used the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire data products named thermal anomalies/fire daily L3 Global 1km (MOD14A1 (Terra) and MYD14A1 (Aqua)) and associated climate data for HulunBuir from 2000 to 2010, and established the model of grassland fire climate index. The results showed that monthly maximum temperature, monthly sunshine hours and monthly average wind speed were all positively correlated with the fire climate index; monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, monthly average relative humidity, monthly minimum relative humidity and the number of days with monthly precipitation greater than or equal to 5 mm were all negatively correlated with the fire climate index. We used the active fire data from 2011 to 2014 to validate the fire climate index during this time period, and the validation result was good (Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.578), which showed that the fire climate index model was suitable for analyzing the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir. Analyses were conducted on the temporal and spatial distribution of the fire climate index from January to December in the years 2011–2014; it could be seen that from March to May and from September to October, the fire climate index was higher, and that the fire climate index of the other months is relatively low. The zones with higher fire climate index are mainly distributed in Xin Barag Youqi, Xin Barag Zuoqi, Zalantun Shi, Oroqen Zizhiqi, and Molidawa Zizhiqi; the zones with medium fire climate index are mainly distributed in Chen Barag Qi, Ewenkizu Zizhiqi, Manzhouli Shi, and Arun Qi; and the zones with lower fire climate index are mainly distributed in Genhe Shi, Ergun city, Yakeshi Shi, and Hailar Shi. The results of this study will contribute to the quantitative assessment and management of early warning and forecasting for mid-to long-term grassland fire risk in HulunBuir. PMID:28304336

Fuzzy fault tree assessment based on improved AHP for fire and explosion accidents for steel oil storage tanks.

PubMed

Shi, Lei; Shuai, Jian; Xu, Kui

2014-08-15

Fire and explosion accidents of steel oil storage tanks (FEASOST) occur occasionally during the petroleum and chemical industry production and storage processes and often have devastating impact on lives, the environment and property. To contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing the occurrence probability of FEASOST, a fault tree of FEASOST is constructed that identifies various potential causes. Traditional fault tree analysis (FTA) can achieve quantitative evaluation if the failure data of all of the basic events (BEs) are available, which is almost impossible due to the lack of detailed data, as well as other uncertainties. This paper makes an attempt to perform FTA of FEASOST by a hybrid application between an expert elicitation based improved analysis hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy set theory, and the occurrence possibility of FEASOST is estimated for an oil depot in China. A comparison between statistical data and calculated data using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) based on traditional and improved AHP is also made. Sensitivity and importance analysis has been performed to identify the most crucial BEs leading to FEASOST that will provide insights into how managers should focus effective mitigation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics - A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sébastien; Falcone, Jean-Luc; Bonadonna, Costanza; Di Traglia, Federico; Pistolesi, Marco; Rosi, Mauro; Lestuzzi, Pierino

2016-10-01

We present a probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard posed by volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) and their potential impact on the built environment. A model named Great Balls of Fire (GBF) is introduced to describe ballistic trajectories of VBPs accounting for a variable drag coefficient and topography. It relies on input parameters easily identifiable in the field and is designed to model large numbers of VBPs stochastically. Associated functions come with the GBF code to post-process model outputs into a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for VBP impacts. Outcomes include probability maps to exceed given thresholds of kinetic energies at impact, hazard curves and probabilistic isoenergy maps. Probabilities are calculated either on equally-sized pixels or zones of interest. The approach is calibrated, validated and applied to La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island (Italy). We constructed a generic eruption scenario based on stratigraphic studies and numerical inversions of the 1888-1890 long-lasting Vulcanian cycle of La Fossa. Results suggest a ~ 10- 2% probability of occurrence of VBP impacts with kinetic energies ≤ 104 J at the touristic locality of Porto. In parallel, the vulnerability to roof perforation was estimated by combining field observations and published literature, allowing for a first estimate of the potential impact of VBPs during future Vulcanian eruptions. Results indicate a high physical vulnerability to the VBP hazard, and, consequently, half of the building stock having a ≥ 2.5 × 10- 3% probability of roof perforation.

Potentials and limitations of remote fire monitoring in protected areas.

PubMed

Dos Santos, João Flávio Costa; Romeiro, Joyce Machado Nunes; de Assis, José Batuíra; Torres, Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira; Gleriani, José Marinaldo

2018-03-01

Protected areas (PAs) play an important role in maintaining the biodiversity and ecological processes of the site. One of the greatest challenges for the PA management in several biomes in the world is wildfires. The objective of this work was to evaluate the potentialities and limitations of the use of data obtained by orbital remote sensing in the monitoring fire occurrence in PAs. Fire Occurrence Records (FORs) were analyzed in Serra do Brigadeiro State Park, Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2007 to 2015, using photo interpreted data from TM, ETM + and OLI sensors of the Landsat series and the Hot Spot Database (HSD) from the Brazilian Institute of Space Research - INPE. It was also observed the time of permanence of the scar left by fire on the landscape, through the multitemporal analysis of the behavior of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and NBR (Normalized Burn Ratio) indexes, before and after the occurrence. The greatest limitation found for the orbital remote monitoring was the presence of clouds in the passage of the sensor in dates close to the occurrence of the fires. The burned area identified by photo interpretation was 54.9% less than the area contained in the FOR. Although the HSD reported fire occurrences in the buffer zone (up to 10km from the Park), no FORs were found at a distance greater than 1100m from the boundaries of the PA. As the main potential of remote sensing, the possibility of identifying burned areas throughout the park and surroundings is highlighted, with low costs and greater accuracy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling wildland fire containment with uncertain flame length and fireline width

Treesearch

Romain Mees; David Strauss; Richard Chase

1993-01-01

We describe a mathematical model for the probability that a fireline succeeds in containing a fire. The probability increases as the fireline width increases, and also as the fire's flame length decreases. More interestingly, uncertainties in width and flame length affect the computed containment probabilities, and can thus indirectly affect the optimum allocation...

Forecasting distribution of numbers of large fires

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Jeff Eidenshink; Stephen Howard; Robert E. Burgan

2015-01-01

Systems to estimate forest fire potential commonly utilize one or more indexes that relate to expected fire behavior; however they indicate neither the chance that a large fire will occur, nor the expected number of large fires. That is, they do not quantify the probabilistic nature of fire danger. In this work we use large fire occurrence information from the...

Spatial and temporal corroboration of a fire-scar-based fire history in a frequently burned ponderosa pine forest

Treesearch

Calvin A. Farris; Christopher H. Baisan; Donald A. Falk; Stephen R. Yool; Thomas W. Swetnam

2010-01-01

Fire scars are used widely to reconstruct historical fire regime parameters in forests around the world. Because fire scars provide incomplete records of past fire occurrence at discrete points in space, inferences must be made to reconstruct fire frequency and extent across landscapes using spatial networks of fire-scar samples. Assessing the relative accuracy of fire...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zarnoch, Stanley J.; Blake, John I.; Parresol, Bernard R.

Snags are standing dead trees that are an important component in the nesting habitat of birds and other species. Although snag availability is believed to limit populations in managed and non-managed forests, little data are available to evaluate the relative effect of stand conditions and management on snag occurrence. We analyzed point sample data from an intensive forest inventory within an 80,000 ha landscape for four major forest types to support the hypotheses that routine low-intensity prescribed fire would increase, and thinning would decrease, snag occurrence. We employed path analysis to define a priori causal relationships to determine the directmore » and indirect effects of site quality, age, relative stand density index and fire for all forest types and thinning effects for loblolly pine and longleaf pine. Stand age was an important direct effect for loblolly pine, mixed pine-hardwoods and hardwoods, but not for longleaf pine. Snag occurrence in loblolly pine was increased by prescribed fire and decreased by thinning which confirmed our initial hypotheses. Although fire was not important in mixed pine-hardwoods, it was for hardwoods but the relationship depended on site quality. For longleaf pine the relative stand density index was the dominant variable affecting snag occurrence, which increased as the density index decreased. Site quality, age and thinning had significant indirect effects on snag occurrence in longleaf pine through their effects on the density index. Although age is an important condition affecting snag occurrence for most forest types, path analysis revealed that fire and density management practices within certain forest types can also have major beneficial effects, particularly in stands less than 60 years old.« less

Influence of the proximity and amount of human development and roads on the occurrence of the red imported fire ant in the lower Florida Keys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forys, E.A.; Allen, Craig R.; Wojcik, D.P.

2002-01-01

We examined the influence of both the proximity and extent of human developments and paved roads on the presence of the predatory, non-indigenous, red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta). This species was inadvertently introduced into the United States at the port of Mobile, Alabama, around 1930 and rapidly spread to many southeastern states, including Florida. More recently, S. invicta colonized the Florida Keys, an area with a high proportion of rare and endemic vertebrate and invertebrate species. We placed bait transects in transitional salt-marsh, pineland, and hardwood hammocks on 13 of the lower Florida Keys and compared habitat type, the shortest distance of the bait transect to a development or road, and area of development and roads 50, 70, 100, and 150 m around each bait transect for areas with and without red imported fire ants. Red imported fire ants were detected on 21 of the 80 transects and were equally abundant in all habitat types. While all of the development and road variables differed significantly between bait transects with and without red imported fire ants, transects that were closest to roads and that had the largest amount of development within a 150 m radii had the highest probability of presence of red imported fire ants. Recovery efforts for endangered species in areas invaded by red imported fire ants should include analyses of the cumulative impacts of roads and developments in areas near protected lands. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wildfire seasonality and land use: when do wildfires prefer to burn?

PubMed

Bajocco, Sofia; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Ricotta, Carlo

2010-05-01

Because of the increasing anthropogenic fire activity, understanding the role of land-use in shaping wildfire regimes has become a major concern. In the last decade, an increasing number of studies have been carried out on the relationship between land-use and wildfire patterns, in order to identify land-use types where fire behaves selectively, showing a marked preference (or avoidance) in terms of fire incidence. By contrast, the temporal aspects of the relationship between landuse types and wildfire occurrence have received far less attention. The aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the period 2000-2006 to identify land-use types where wildfires occur earlier or later than expected from a random null model. The study highlighted a close relationship between the timing of fire occurrence and land-cover that is primarily governed by two complementary processes: climatic factors that act indirectly on the timing of wildfires determining the spatial distribution of land-use types, and human population and human pressure that directly influence fire ignition. From a practical viewpoint, understanding the temporal trends of wildfires within the different land-use classes can be an effective decision-support tool for fire agencies in managing fire risk and for producing provisional models of fire behavior under changing climatic scenarios and evolving landscapes.

Assessing the risk of ignition in the Russian far east within a modeling framework of fire threat.

PubMed

Loboda, Tatiana V; Csiszar, Ivan A

2007-04-01

The forests of high biological importance in the Russian Far East (RFE) have been experiencing increasing pressure from growing demands for natural resources under the changing economy of post-Soviet Russia. This pressure is further amplified by the rising threat of large and catastrophic fire occurrence, which threatens both the resources and the economic potential of the region. In this paper we introduce a conceptual Fire Threat Model (FTM) and use it to provide quantitative assessment of the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East. The remotely sensed data driven FTM is aimed at evaluating potential wildland fire occurrence and its impact and recovery potential for a given resource. This model is intended for use by resource managers to assist in assessing current levels of fire threat to a given resource, projecting the changes in fire threat under changing climate and land use, and evaluating the efficiency of various management approaches aimed at minimizing the fire impact. Risk of ignition (one of the major uncertainties within fire threat modeling) was analyzed using the MODIS active fire product. The risk of ignition in the RFE is shown to be highly variable in spatial and temporal domains. However, the number of ignition points is not directly proportional to the amount of fire occurrence in the area. Fire ignitions in the RFE are strongly linked to anthropogenic activity (transportation routes, settlements, and land use). An increase in the number of fire ignitions during summer months could be attributed to (1) disruption of the summer monsoons and subsequent changes in fire weather and (2) an increase in natural sources of fire ignitions.

Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century

PubMed Central

Westerling, Anthony L.; Turner, Monica G.; Smithwick, Erica A. H.; Romme, William H.; Ryan, Michael G.

2011-01-01

Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972–1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated and then used with downscaled (∼12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to <30 y from the historical 100–300 y for most of the GYE. Years without large fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire–climate–vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and may indicate similar changes for other subalpine forests. PMID:21788495

Coupling of Bayesian Networks with GIS for wildfire risk assessment on natural and agricultural areas of the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherb, Anke; Papakosta, Panagiota; Straub, Daniel

2014-05-01

Wildfires cause severe damages to ecosystems, socio-economic assets, and human lives in the Mediterranean. To facilitate coping with wildfire risks, an understanding of the factors influencing wildfire occurrence and behavior (e.g. human activity, weather conditions, topography, fuel loads) and their interaction is of importance, as is the implementation of this knowledge in improved wildfire hazard and risk prediction systems. In this project, a probabilistic wildfire risk prediction model is developed, with integrated fire occurrence and fire propagation probability and potential impact prediction on natural and cultivated areas. Bayesian Networks (BNs) are used to facilitate the probabilistic modeling. The final BN model is a spatial-temporal prediction system at the meso scale (1 km2 spatial and 1 day temporal resolution). The modeled consequences account for potential restoration costs and production losses referred to forests, agriculture, and (semi-) natural areas. BNs and a geographic information system (GIS) are coupled within this project to support a semi-automated BN model parameter learning and the spatial-temporal risk prediction. The coupling also enables the visualization of prediction results by means of daily maps. The BN parameters are learnt for Cyprus with data from 2006-2009. Data from 2010 is used as validation data set. A special focus is put on the performance evaluation of the BN for fire occurrence, which is modeled as binary classifier and thus, could be validated by means of Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves. With the final best models, AUC values of more than 70% for validation could be achieved, which indicates potential for reliable prediction performance via BN. Maps of selected days in 2010 are shown to illustrate final prediction results. The resulting system can be easily expanded to predict additional expected damages in the mesoscale (e.g. building and infrastructure damages). The system can support planning of preventive measures (e.g. state resources allocation for wildfire prevention and preparedness) and assist recuperation plans of damaged areas.

Climatic and weather factors affecting fire occurrence and behavior

Treesearch

Randall P. Benson; John O. Roads; David R. Weise

2009-01-01

Weather and climate have a profound influence on wildland fire ignition potential, fire behavior, and fire severity. Local weather and climate are affected by large-scale patterns of winds over the hemispheres that predispose wildland fuels to fire. The characteristics of wildland fuels, especially the moisture content, ultimately determine fire behavior and the impact...

Fire regime in a Mexican forest under indigenous resource management.

PubMed

Fulé, Peter Z; Ramos-Gómez, Mauro; Cortés-Montaño, Citlali; Miller, Andrew M

2011-04-01

The Rarámuri (Tarahumara) people live in the mountains and canyons of the Sierra Madre Occidental of Chihuahua, Mexico. They base their subsistence on multiple-use strategies of their natural resources, including agriculture, pastoralism, and harvesting of native plants and wildlife. Pino Gordo is a Rarámuri settlement in a remote location where the forest has not been commercially logged. We reconstructed the forest fire regime from fire-scarred trees, measured the structure of the never-logged forest, and interviewed community members about fire use. Fire occurrence was consistent throughout the 19th and 20th centuries up to our fire scar collection in 2004. This is the least interrupted surface-fire regime reported to date in North America. Studies from other relict sites such as nature reserves in Mexico or the USA have all shown some recent alterations associated with industrialized society. At Pino Gordo, fires recurred frequently at the three study sites, with a composite mean fire interval of 1.9 years (all fires) to 7.6 years (fires scarring 25% or more of samples). Per-sample fire intervals averaged 10-14 years at the three sites. Approximately two-thirds of fires burned in the season of cambial dormancy, probably during the pre-monsoonal drought. Forests were dominated by pines and contained many large living trees and snags, in contrast to two nearby similar forests that have been logged. Community residents reported using fire for many purposes, consistent with previous literature on fire use by indigenous people. Pino Gordo is a valuable example of a continuing frequent-fire regime in a never-harvested forest. The Rarámuri people have actively conserved this forest through their traditional livelihood and management techniques, as opposed to logging the forest, and have also facilitated the fire regime by burning. The data contribute to a better understanding of the interactions of humans who live in pine forests and the fire regimes of these ecosystems, a topic that has been controversial and difficult to assess from historical or paleoecological evidence.

Seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Conditions for Wildland Fire Management in Alaska using NMME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.; Thoman, R.; York, A.; Ziel, R.

2016-12-01

The summer of 2015 was the second largest Alaska fire season since 1950 where approximately the land area of Massachusetts burned. The record fire year of 2004 resulted in 6.5 million acres burned and was costly from property loss (> 35M) and emergency personnel (> 17M). In addition to requiring significant resources, wildfire smoke impacts air quality in Alaska and downstream into North America. Fires in Alaska result from lightning strikes coupled with persistent (extreme) dry warm conditions in remote areas with limited fire management and the seasonal climate/weather determine the extent of the fire season in Alaska. Fire managers rely on weather/climate outlooks for allocating staff and resources from days to a season in advance. Though currently few tested products are available at the seasonal scale. Probabilistic forecasts of the expected seasonal climate/weather would aid tremendously in the planning process. Advanced knowledge of both lightning and fuel conditions would assist managers in planning resource allocation for the upcoming season. For fuel conditions, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) has been used since 1992 because it better suits the Alaska fire regime than the standard US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). This CFFWIS is based on early afternoon values of 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m winds and daily total precipitation. Extremes of these indices and the variables are used to calculate these indices will be defined in reference to fire weather for the boreal forest. The CFFWIS will be applied and evaluated for the NMME hindcasts. This study will evaluate the quality of the forecasts comparing the hindcast NMME CFFWIS to acres burned in Alaska. Spatial synoptic patterns in the NMME related to fire weather extremes will be constructed using self-organized maps and probabilities of occurrence will be evaluated against acres burned.

Fire and drought [Chapter 7

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Littell; David L. Peterson; Karin L. Riley; Yongqiang Liu; Charles H. Luce

2016-01-01

Historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire have been well documented in much of North America, with forest fire occurrence and area burned clearly increasing in response to drought. Drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, and fire weather) to affect fire intensity and severity. Fire regime characteristics (...

Evaluating spatially explicit burn probabilities for strategic fire management planning

Treesearch

C. Miller; M.-A. Parisien; A. A. Ager; M. A. Finney

2008-01-01

Spatially explicit information on the probability of burning is necessary for virtually all strategic fire and fuels management planning activities, including conducting wildland fire risk assessments, optimizing fuel treatments, and prevention planning. Predictive models providing a reliable estimate of the annual likelihood of fire at each point on the landscape have...

Fire danger and fire behavior modeling systems in Australia, Europe, and North America

Treesearch

Francis M. Fujioka; A. Malcolm Gill; Domingos X. Viegas; B. Mike Wotton

2009-01-01

Wildland fire occurrence and behavior are complex phenomena involving essentially fuel (vegetation), topography, and weather. Fire managers around the world use a variety of systems to track and predict fire danger and fire behavior, at spatial scales that span from local to global extents, and temporal scales ranging from minutes to seasons. The fire management...

Long-term, landscape patterns of past fire events in a montane ponderosa pine forest of central Colorado

Treesearch

Peter M. Brown; Merrill R. Kaufmann; Wayne D. Shepperd

1999-01-01

Parameters of fire regimes, including fire frequency, spatial extent of burned areas, fire severity, and season of fire occurrence, influence vegetation patterns over multiple scales. In this study, centuries-long patterns of fire events in a montane ponderosa pine - Douglas-fir forest landscape surrounding Cheesman Lake in central Colorado were reconstructed from fire...

The demise of fire and "mesophication" of forests in the eastern United States

Treesearch

Gregory J. Nowacki; Marc D. Abrams

2008-01-01

A diverse array of fire-adapted plant communities once covered the eastern United States. European settlement greatly altered fire regimes, often increasing fire occurrence (e.g., in northern hardwoods) or substantially decreasing it (e.g., in tallgrass prairies). Notwithstanding these changes, fire suppression policies, beginning around the 1920s, greatly reduced fire...

Fire suppression effectiveness for simultaneous fires: an examination of fire histories

Treesearch

Larry F. Bednar; Romain Mees; David Strauss

1990-01-01

We examined fire and weather records for areas of the western United States for the period 1970-1984 to determine the effects of simultaneous wildfire occurrence on fire suppression efforts. Burning conditions were accounted for by use of short strings of fires which involved simultaneous suppression efforts. These strings were matched with closely preceding isolated...

Shift in fire-ecosystems and weather changes

Treesearch

Bongani Finiza

2013-01-01

During recent decades too much focus fell on fire suppression and fire engineering methods. Little attention has been given to understanding the shift in the changing fire weather resulting from the global change in weather patterns. Weather change have gradually changed the way vegetation cover respond to fire occurrence and brought about changes in fire behavior and...

Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling

2008-01-01

The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...

Landsat imagery evidences great recent land cover changes induced by wild fires in central Siberia*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antamoshkina, O. A.; Trofimova, N. V.; Antamoshkin, O. A.

2016-04-01

The article discusses the methods of satellite image classification to determine general types of forest ecosystems, as well as the long-term monitoring of ecosystems changes using satellite imagery of medium spatial resolution and the daily data of space monitoring of active fires. The area of interest of this work is 100 km footprint of the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO), located near the Zotino settlement, Krasnoyarsk region. The study area is located in the middle taiga subzone of Western Siberia, are presented by the left and right banks of the Yenisei river. For Landsat satellite imagery supervised classification by the maximum likelihood method was made using ground-based studies over the last fifteen years. The results are the identification of the 10 aggregated classes of land surface and composition of the study area thematic map. Operational satellite monitoring and analysis of spatial information about ecosystem in the 100-kilometer footprint of the ZOTTO tall tower allows to monitor the dynamics of forest disturbance by fire and logging over a long time period and to estimate changes in forest ecosystems of the study area. Data on the number and area of fires detected in the study region for the 2000-2014 received in the work. Calculations show that active fires have burned more than a quarter of the footprint area over the study period. Fires have a significant impact on the redistribution of classes of land surface. Area of all types of vegetation ecosystems declined dramatically under the influence of fires, whereas industrial logging does not impact seriously on it. The results obtained in our work indicate the highest occurrence of fires for lichen forest types within study region, probably due to their high natural fire danger, which is consistent with other studies. The least damage the fire caused to the wetland ecosystem due to high content of moisture and the presence of a large number of fire breaks in the form of open water.

Using satellite fire detection to calibrate components of the fire weather index system in Malaysia and Indonesia.

PubMed

Dymond, Caren C; Field, Robert D; Roswintiarti, Orbita; Guswanto

2005-04-01

Vegetation fires have become an increasing problem in tropical environments as a consequence of socioeconomic pressures and subsequent land-use change. In response, fire management systems are being developed. This study set out to determine the relationships between two aspects of the fire problems in western Indonesia and Malaysia, and two components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. The study resulted in a new method for calibrating components of fire danger rating systems based on satellite fire detection (hotspot) data. Once the climate was accounted for, a problematic number of fires were related to high levels of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code. The relationship between climate, Fine Fuel Moisture Code, and hotspot occurrence was used to calibrate Fire Occurrence Potential classes where low accounted for 3% of the fires from 1994 to 2000, moderate accounted for 25%, high 26%, and extreme 38%. Further problems arise when there are large clusters of fires burning that may consume valuable land or produce local smoke pollution. Once the climate was taken into account, the hotspot load (number and size of clusters of hotspots) was related to the Fire Weather Index. The relationship between climate, Fire Weather Index, and hotspot load was used to calibrate Fire Load Potential classes. Low Fire Load Potential conditions (75% of an average year) corresponded with 24% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 30% of the largest cluster. In contrast, extreme Fire Load Potential conditions (1% of an average year) corresponded with 30% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 58% of the maximum. Both Fire Occurrence Potential and Fire Load Potential calibrations were successfully validated with data from 2001. This study showed that when ground measurements are not available, fire statistics derived from satellite fire detection archives can be reliably used for calibration. More importantly, as a result of this work, Malaysia and Indonesia have two new sources of information to initiate fire prevention and suppression activities.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management.

PubMed

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G; McIntire, Eliot J B

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover's direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate-fire-fuels systems.

Reducing Community Vulnerability to Wildland Fires in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.

2010-12-01

In the US fires are not treated like other hazards such as earthquakes but rather as preventable through landscape fuel treatments and aggressive fire suppression. In southern California extreme fire weather has made it impossible to control all fires and thus loss of homes and lives is a constant threat to communities. There is growing evidence that indicate we are not likely to ever eliminate fires on these landscapes. Thus, it is time to reframe the fire problem and think of fires like we do with other natural hazards such as earthquakes. We do not attempt to stop earthquakes, rather the primary emphasis is on altering human infrastructure in ways that minimize community vulnerability. In other words we need to change our approach from risk elimination to risk management. This approach means we accept that we cannot eliminate fires but rather learn to live with fire by communities becoming more fire adapted. We potentially can make great strides in reducing community vulnerability by finding those factors with high impacts and are sensitive to changes in management. Presently, decision makers have relatively little guidance about which of these is likely to have the greatest impact. Future reductions in fire risk to communities requires we address both wildland and urban elements that contribute to destructive losses. Damage risk or D is determined by: D = f (I, S, E, G, H) where I = the probability of a fire starting in the landscape S = the probability of the fire reaching a size sufficient to reach the urban environment E = probability of it encroaching into the urban environment G = probability of fire propagating within the built environment H = probability of a fire, once within the built environment, resulting in the destruction of a building. In southern California, reducing I through more strategic fire prevention has potential for reducing fire risk. There are many ignition sources that could be reduced, such as replacing power line ignitions with underground lines, strategically employing arson patrols during Santa Ana wind events, enforcing regulations on power equipment use in wildland areas, k-rail barriers along roads to reduce fire spread into wildland areas etc. S, or the probability of fire reaching urban environments has historically been the primary focus of state and federal fire management activities. There is a need for greater focus on understanding the most strategic application of wildland fuel treatments. E, the probability of fire encroaching into the urban environment, has largely been addressed in the past by attention to wildland-urban interface (WUI) fuel treatments. The one factor that has perhaps the greatest potential for impacting E are patterns of urban growth, both in strategic placement and spatial patterning within communities, and this is an area where alternative future growth scenarios could have huge impacts on fire outcomes. G, the chance of fire propagating within the urban environment is a function of urban fuels, which include both home construction and landscaping. This area has the potential for effecting large changes in fire losses dependent upon future regulations on plantings in the urban environment.

Comparison of fire scars, fire atlases, and satellite data in the northwestern United States

Treesearch

Lauren B. Shapiro-Miller; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Penelope Morgan

2007-01-01

We evaluated agreement in the location and occurrence of 20th century fires recorded in digital fire atlases with those inferred from fire scars that we collected systematically at one site in Idaho and from existing fire-scar reconstructions at four sites in Washington. Fire perimeters were similar for two of three 20th century fires in Idaho (1924 and 1986). Overall...

Heightened fire probability in Indonesia in non-drought conditions: the effect of increasing temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Kátia; Verchot, Louis; Baethgen, Walter; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel; Martius, Christopher

2017-05-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This was the case of the events of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated the impact of temperature on fires and found that when the July-October (JASO) period is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature is modest. In contrast, under normal-to-wet conditions, fire probability increases sharply when JASO is anomalously warm. This describes a regime in which an active fire season is not limited to drought years. Greater susceptibility to fires in response to a warmer environment finds support in the high evapotranspiration rates observed in normal-to-wet and warm conditions in Indonesia. We also find that fire probability in wet JASOs would be considerably less sensitive to temperature were not for the added effect of recent positive trends. Near-term regional climate projections reveal that, despite negligible changes in precipitation, a continuing warming trend will heighten fire probability over the next few decades especially in non-drought years. Mild fire seasons currently observed in association with wet conditions and cool temperatures will become rare events in Indonesia.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management

PubMed Central

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G.; McIntire, Eliot J. B.

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover’s direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate–fire–fuels systems. PMID:28609467

Using neutral models to identify constraints on low-severity fire regimes.

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg

2006-01-01

Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire is modeled as a stochastic process, for which each fire history is only one realization, a simulation approach is necessary to understand baseline variability, thereby identifying constraints, or forcing functions, that affect fire regimes...

Fire History from Life-History: Determining the Fire Regime that a Plant Community Is Adapted Using Life-Histories

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Graeme; Phillips, Ben

2012-01-01

Wildfire is a fundamental disturbance process in many ecological communities, and is critical in maintaining the structure of some plant communities. In the past century, changes in global land use practices have led to changes in fire regimes that have radically altered the composition of many plant communities. As the severe biodiversity impacts of inappropriate fire management regimes are recognized, attempts are being made to manage fires within a more ‘natural’ regime. In this aim, the focus has typically been on determining the fire regime to which the community has adapted. Here we take a subtly different approach and focus on the probability of a patch being burnt. We hypothesize that competing sympatric taxa from different plant functional groups are able to coexist due to the stochasticity of the fire regime, which creates opportunities in both time and space that are exploited differentially by each group. We exploit this situation to find the fire probability at which three sympatric grasses, from different functional groups, are able to co-exist. We do this by parameterizing a spatio-temporal simulation model with the life-history strategies of the three species and then search for the fire frequency and scale at which they are able to coexist when in competition. The simulation gives a clear result that these species only coexist across a very narrow range of fire probabilities centred at 0.2. Conversely, fire scale was found only to be important at very large scales. Our work demonstrates the efficacy of using competing sympatric species with different regeneration niches to determine the probability of fire in any given patch. Estimating this probability allows us to construct an expected historical distribution of fire return intervals for the community; a critical resource for managing fire-driven biodiversity in the face of a growing carbon economy and ongoing climate change. PMID:22363670

Fire-scar formation in Jeffrey pine - mixed conifer forests in the Sierra San Pedro Martir, Mexico

Treesearch

Scott L. Stephens; Danny L. Fry; Brandon M. Collins; Carl N. Skinner; Ernesto Franco-Vizcaino; Travis J. Freed

2010-01-01

Little is known about the probability of fire-scar formation. In this study, we examined all mixed conifer trees for fire-scar formation in a 16 ha watershed that burned as part of a 2003 wildfire in Sierra San Pedro Ma´rtir National Park (SSPM), Mexico. In addition, we examine the probability of fire-scar formation in relation to the previous fire interval in forests...

Use of regionalisation approach to develop fire frequency curves for Victoria, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khastagir, Anirban; Jayasuriya, Niranjali; Bhuyian, Muhammed A.

2017-11-01

It is important to perform fire frequency analysis to obtain fire frequency curves (FFC) based on fire intensity at different parts of Victoria. In this paper fire frequency curves (FFCs) were derived based on forest fire danger index (FFDI). FFDI is a measure related to fire initiation, spreading speed and containment difficulty. The mean temperature (T), relative humidity (RH) and areal extent of open water (LC2) during summer months (Dec-Feb) were identified as the most important parameters for assessing the risk of occurrence of bushfire. Based on these parameters, Andrews' curve equation was applied to 40 selected meteorological stations to identify homogenous stations to form unique clusters. A methodology using peak FFDI from cluster averaged FFDIs was developed by applying Log Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution to generate FFCs. A total of nine homogeneous clusters across Victoria were identified, and subsequently their FFC's were developed in order to estimate the regionalised fire occurrence characteristics.

Federal fire managers' perceptions of the importance, scarcity and substitutability of suppression resources

Treesearch

Crystal S. Stonesifer; David E. Calkin; Michael S. Hand

2017-01-01

Wildland firefighting in the United States is a complex and costly enterprise. While there are strong seasonal signatures for fire occurrence in specific regions of the United States, spatiotemporal occurrence of wildfire activity can have high inter-annual variability. Suppression resources come from a variety of jurisdictions and provide a wide range of skills,...

Fire-climate interactions in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness area

Treesearch

Kurt F. Kipfmueller; Thomas W. Swetnam

2000-01-01

Tree-ring reconstructed summer drought was examined in relation to the occurrence of 15 fires in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Area (SBW). The ten largest fire years between 1880 and 1995 were selected from historical fire atlas data; five additional fire years were selected from a fire history completed in a subalpine forest within the SBW. Results of the analysis...

Comparing effects of fire modeling methods on simulated fire patterns and succession: a case study in the Missouri Ozarks

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Eric J. Gustafson

2008-01-01

We compared four fire spread simulation methods (completely random, dynamic percolation. size-based minimum travel time algorithm. and duration-based minimum travel time algorithm) and two fire occurrence simulation methods (Poisson fire frequency model and hierarchical fire frequency model) using a two-way factorial design. We examined these treatment effects on...

Burst Firing is a Neural Code in an Insect Auditory System

PubMed Central

Eyherabide, Hugo G.; Rokem, Ariel; Herz, Andreas V. M.; Samengo, Inés

2008-01-01

Various classes of neurons alternate between high-frequency discharges and silent intervals. This phenomenon is called burst firing. To analyze burst activity in an insect system, grasshopper auditory receptor neurons were recorded in vivo for several distinct stimulus types. The experimental data show that both burst probability and burst characteristics are strongly influenced by temporal modulations of the acoustic stimulus. The tendency to burst, hence, is not only determined by cell-intrinsic processes, but also by their interaction with the stimulus time course. We study this interaction quantitatively and observe that bursts containing a certain number of spikes occur shortly after stimulus deflections of specific intensity and duration. Our findings suggest a sparse neural code where information about the stimulus is represented by the number of spikes per burst, irrespective of the detailed interspike-interval structure within a burst. This compact representation cannot be interpreted as a firing-rate code. An information-theoretical analysis reveals that the number of spikes per burst reliably conveys information about the amplitude and duration of sound transients, whereas their time of occurrence is reflected by the burst onset time. The investigated neurons encode almost half of the total transmitted information in burst activity. PMID:18946533

Ecological effects of the Hayman Fire - Part 1: Historical (pre-1860) and current (1860-2002) fire regimes

Treesearch

William H. Romme; Thomas T. Veblen; Merrill R. Kaufmann; Rosemary Sherriff; Claudia M. Regan

2003-01-01

To address historical and current fire regimes in the Hayman landscape, we first present the concepts of “historical range of variability” and ”fire regime” to provide the necessary conceptual tools for evaluating fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire effects. Next we summarize historical (pre-1860) fire frequency and fire effects for the major forest types of the...

Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

2014-12-01

The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the level of uncertainty surrounding the influence that natural and anthropogenic systems have on wildfire.

Characterizing Early Succession Following Wildfires at Different Severities in Boreal Bog and Fen Peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ernst, E. J.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Kane, E. S.; Wagenbrenner, J. W.; Endres, S.

2016-12-01

The Arctic-boreal region is experiencing changes in climate, trending toward warmer summers, resulting in a greater occurrence of wildfires with longer burning periods and higher intensities. Drought-like conditions have dried surface fuels, leading to a higher probability of ignition, even in lowland peatlands. Previous work has been done to characterize post-fire succession rates in Arctic-boreal upland sites, but much less is known of fire effects and early successional dynamics in lowlands. Wildland fires are the number one disturbance in Canada's Northwest Territories (NWT), which characteristically burn at high intensities with large flame fronts, and result in some of the biggest wildfires in the world. Areas surrounding the Great Slave Lake, NWT—including parts of the Taiga Plains, Taiga Shield, and Boreal Plains ecozones—experienced exceptional wildfire activity in 2014 and 2015. We characterized burn severity of the bog and fen peat surface and canopy layers at several burned sites. To determine if the severe ground or crown wildfires were stand-replacing events, we characterized post-fire vegetation in peatlands in 2015 and 2016 based on seedling regeneration. We stratified sites according to estimated water residence times across the three ecozones and made comparisons between data collected at the same sites across years. This work adds much needed context for post-fire succession in boreal peatland ecosystems, as the susceptibility of these systems to burning will continue to increase with a warming climate.

Probabilistic discrimination between liquid rainfall events, hailstorms, biomass burning and industrial fires from C-Band Radar Polarimetric Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valencia, J. M.; Sepúlveda, J.; Hoyos, C.; Herrera, L.

2017-12-01

Characterization and identification of fire and hailstorm events using weather radar data in a tropical complex topography region is an important task in risk management and agriculture. Polarimetric variables from a C-Band Dual polarization weather radar have potential uses in particle classification, due to the relationship their sensitivity to shape, spatial orientation, size and fall behavior of particles. In this sense, three forest fires and two chemical fires were identified for the Áburra Valley regions. Measurements were compared between each fire event type and with typical data radar retrievals for liquid precipitation events. Results of this analysis show different probability density functions for each type of event according to the particles present in them. This is very important and useful result for early warning systems to avoid precipitation false alarms during fire events within the study region, as well as for the early detection of fires using radar retrievals in remote cases. The comparative methodology is extended to hailstorm cases. Complementary sensors like laser precipitation sensors (LPM) disdrometers and meteorological stations were used to select dates of solid precipitation occurrence. Then, in this dates weather radar data variables were taken in pixels surrounding the stations and solid precipitation polar values were statistically compared with liquid precipitation values. Spectrum precipitation measured by LPM disdrometer helps to define typical features like particles number, fall velocities and diameters for both precipitation types. In addition, to achieve a complete hailstorm characterization, other meteorological variables were analyzed: wind field from meteorological stations and radar wind profiler, profiling data from Micro Rain Radar (MRR), and thermodynamic data from a microwave radiometer.

Development and fire trends in oak woodlands of the northwestern Sierra Nevada foothills

Treesearch

James G. Spero

2002-01-01

Human development appears to present a larger threat to the long-term persistence of California's hardwood rangelands than fire in terms of likely ecological significance. This paper describes of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP) projections of human development and fire occurrence and...

Natural and social factors influencing forest fire occurrence at a local spatial scale

Treesearch

Maria Luisa Chas-Amil; Julia M. Touza; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Colin J. McClean

2012-01-01

Development of efficient forest fire policies requires an understanding of the underlying reasons behind forest fire ignitions. Globally, there is a close relationship between forest fires and human activities, i.e., fires understood as human events due to negligence (e.g., agricultural burning escapes), and deliberate actions (e.g., pyromania, revenge, land use change...

Mexican forest fires and their decadal variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco Herrera, Graciela

2016-11-01

A high forest fire season of two to three years is regularly observed each decade in Mexican forests. This seems to be related to the presence of the El Niño phenomenon and to the amount of total solar irradiance. In this study, the results of a multi-cross wavelet analysis are reported based on the occurrence of Mexican forest fires, El Niño and the total solar irradiance for the period 1970-2014. The analysis shows that Mexican forest fires and the strongest El Niño phenomena occur mostly around the minima of the solar cycle. This suggests that the total solar irradiance minima provide the appropriate climatological conditions for the occurrence of these forest fires. The next high season for Mexican forest fires could start in the next solar minimum, which will take place between the years 2017 and 2019. A complementary space analysis based on MODIS active fire data for Mexican forest fires from 2005 to 2014 shows that most of these fires occur in cedar and pine forests, on savannas and pasturelands, and in the central jungles of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

Regionally synchronous fires in interior British Columbia, Canada, driven by interannual climate variability and weakly associated with large-scale climate patterns between AD 1600-1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harvey, J. E.; Smith, D. J.

2016-12-01

We investigated the influence of climate variability on forest fire occurrence in west central British Columbia (BC), Canada, between AD 1600 and 1900. Fire history was reconstructed at 8 sites in the Cariboo-Chilcotin region and we identified 46 local (fires that affected 1 site) and 16 moderate (fires that affected 2 sites) fires. Preexisting fire history data collected from nearby sites was incorporated to identify 17 regionally synchronous fire years (fires that affected ³ 3 sites). Interannual and multidecadal relationships between fire occurrence and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern were examined, in addition to the effects of phase interactions between ENSO and PDO. We examined multiple reconstructions of PDO and ENSO and utilized three methodological approaches to characterize climate-fire relationships. We found that the influence of interannual climate expressed as PDSI, increasingly synchronized the occurrence of of fires from local to regional fires. Regional fires were associated with anomalously dry, warm conditions in the year of the fire and in years preceding the fire. We also identified an association between local fires and antecedent moisture conditions, where wetter and cooler conditions persisted 2-3 years prior to fire. This finding suggests that moisture-driven fine fuel development and proximity to grasslands could function as key determinants of local (small-scale) fire history parameters. The relationships we identified between regional fires and ENSO, PDO and PNA suggest that large-scale patterns of climate variability exert a weak and/or inconsistent influence over fire activity in west central BC between AD 1600-1900. The strongest relationships between regional fires and large-scale climate patterns were identified when ENSO and PDO were both in positive phases. We also documented a relationship between regional fires and positive years of the PNA pattern. Our findings suggest that long-term fire planning using predictions of large scale climate patterns may be limited in west central BC, however, the consideration of additive phases of ENSO and PDO, and the PNA pattern, may be effective and has been suggested by others in the inland Pacific Northwest.

The Howling Prescribed Natural Fire - long-term effects on the modernization of planning and implementation of wildland fire management

Treesearch

Tom Zimmerman; Laurie Kurth; Mitchell Burgard

2011-01-01

Wildland fire management policy and practices have long been driven by the occurrence of significant events. The Howling Prescribed Natural Fire in Glacier National Park in 1994 is a prime example of a significant historical fire event that provided the impetus for program changes and modifications that modernized wildland fire management at the local, regional, and...

Using a stochastic model and cross-scale analysis to evaluate controls on historical low-severity fire regimes

Treesearch

Maureen C. Kennedy; Donald McKenzie

2010-01-01

Fire-scarred trees provide a deep temporal record of historical fire activity, but identifying the mechanisms therein that controlled landscape fire patterns is not straightforward. We use a spatially correlated metric for fire co-occurrence between pairs of trees (the Sørensen distance variogram), with output from a neutral model for fire history, to infer the...

Climate effects on historical fires (1630-1900) in Utah

Treesearch

Peter M. Brown; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Stanley G. Kitchen; Marc H. Weber

2008-01-01

We inferred climate effects on fire occurrence from 1630 to 1900 for a new set of crossdated fire-scar chronologies from 18 forested sites in Utah and one site in eastern Nevada. Years with regionally synchronous fires (31 years with fire at ≥20% of sites) occurred during drier than average summers and years with no fires at any site (100 years) were wetter...

Review of methods for developing probabilistic risk assessments

Treesearch

D. A. Weinstein; P.B. Woodbury

2010-01-01

We describe methodologies currently in use or those under development containing features for estimating fire occurrence risk assessment. We describe two major categories of fire risk assessment tools: those that predict fire under current conditions, assuming that vegetation, climate, and the interactions between them and fire remain relatively similar to their...

Occurrence of fire in longleaf pine stands in the Southeastern United States

Treesearch

Kenneth W. Outcalt

2000-01-01

A healthy understory commmunity is a key factor in maintaining the biodiversity of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) stands, and there appears to be a strong relationship between the occurrence of fire and the condition of the understory vegetauon. Generally, the understory is healthier in burned areas than in those not burned. TO assess the USC of...

Studying the effects of fuel treatment based on burn probability on a boreal forest landscape.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Yang, Jian; He, Hong S

2013-01-30

Fuel treatment is assumed to be a primary tactic to mitigate intense and damaging wildfires. However, how to place treatment units across a landscape and assess its effectiveness is difficult for landscape-scale fuel management planning. In this study, we used a spatially explicit simulation model (LANDIS) to conduct wildfire risk assessments and optimize the placement of fuel treatments at the landscape scale. We first calculated a baseline burn probability map from empirical data (fuel, topography, weather, and fire ignition and size data) to assess fire risk. We then prioritized landscape-scale fuel treatment based on maps of burn probability and fuel loads (calculated from the interactions among tree composition, stand age, and disturbance history), and compared their effects on reducing fire risk. The burn probability map described the likelihood of burning on a given location; the fuel load map described the probability that a high fuel load will accumulate on a given location. Fuel treatment based on the burn probability map specified that stands with high burn probability be treated first, while fuel treatment based on the fuel load map specified that stands with high fuel loads be treated first. Our results indicated that fuel treatment based on burn probability greatly reduced the burned area and number of fires of different intensities. Fuel treatment based on burn probability also produced more dispersed and smaller high-risk fire patches and therefore can improve efficiency of subsequent fire suppression. The strength of our approach is that more model components (e.g., succession, fuel, and harvest) can be linked into LANDIS to map the spatially explicit wildfire risk and its dynamics to fuel management, vegetation dynamics, and harvesting. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The diversification of Paleozoic fire systems and fluctuations in atmospheric oxygen concentration

PubMed Central

Scott, Andrew C.; Glasspool, Ian J.

2006-01-01

By comparing Silurian through end Permian [≈250 million years (Myr)] charcoal abundance with contemporaneous macroecological changes in vegetation and climate we aim to demonstrate that long-term variations in fire occurrence and fire system diversification are related to fluctuations in Late Paleozoic atmospheric oxygen concentration. Charcoal, a proxy for fire, occurs in the fossil record from the Late Silurian (≈420 Myr) to the present. Its presence at any interval in the fossil record is already taken to constrain atmospheric oxygen within the range of 13% to 35% (the “fire window”). Herein, we observe that, as predicted, atmospheric oxygen levels rise from ≈13% in the Late Devonian to ≈30% in the Late Permian so, too, fires progressively occur in an increasing diversity of ecosystems. Sequentially, data of note include: the occurrence of charcoal in the Late Silurian/Early Devonian, indicating the burning of a diminutive, dominantly rhyniophytoid vegetation; an apparent paucity of charcoal in the Middle to Late Devonian that coincides with a predicted atmospheric oxygen low; and the subsequent diversification of fire systems throughout the remainder of the Late Paleozoic. First, fires become widespread during the Early Mississippian, they then become commonplace in mire systems in the Middle Mississippian; in the Pennsylvanian they are first recorded in upland settings and finally, based on coal petrology, become extremely important in many Permian mire settings. These trends conform well to changes in atmospheric oxygen concentration, as predicted by modeling, and indicate oxygen levels are a significant control on long-term fire occurrence. PMID:16832054

Measuring the effect of fuel treatments on forest carbon using landscape risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, A. A.; Finney, M. A.; McMahan, A.; Cathcart, J.

2010-12-01

Wildfire simulation modelling was used to examine whether fuel reduction treatments can potentially reduce future wildfire emissions and provide carbon benefits. In contrast to previous reports, the current study modelled landscape scale effects of fuel treatments on fire spread and intensity, and used a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire effects on carbon pools to account for stochastic wildfire occurrence. The study area was a 68 474 ha watershed located on the Fremont-Winema National Forest in southeastern Oregon, USA. Fuel reduction treatments were simulated on 10% of the watershed (19% of federal forestland). We simulated 30 000 wildfires with random ignition locations under both treated and untreated landscapes to estimate the change in burn probability by flame length class resulting from the treatments. Carbon loss functions were then calculated with the Forest Vegetation Simulator for each stand in the study area to quantify change in carbon as a function of flame length. We then calculated the expected change in carbon from a random ignition and wildfire as the sum of the product of the carbon loss and the burn probabilities by flame length class. The expected carbon difference between the non-treatment and treatment scenarios was then calculated to quantify the effect of fuel treatments. Overall, the results show that the carbon loss from implementing fuel reduction treatments exceeded the expected carbon benefit associated with lowered burn probabilities and reduced fire severity on the treated landscape. Thus, fuel management activities resulted in an expected net loss of carbon immediately after treatment. However, the findings represent a point in time estimate (wildfire immediately after treatments), and a temporal analysis with a probabilistic framework used here is needed to model carbon dynamics over the life cycle of the fuel treatments. Of particular importance is the long-term balance between emissions from the decay of dead trees killed by fire and carbon sequestration by forest regeneration following wildfire.

The rise of fire: Fossil charcoal in late Devonian marine shales as an indicator of expanding terrestrial ecosystems, fire, and atmospheric change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rimmer, Susan M.; Hawkins, Sarah J.; Scott, Andrew C.; Cressler, Walter L.

2015-01-01

Fossil charcoal provides direct evidence for fire events that, in turn, have implications for the evolution of both terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. Most of the ancient charcoal record is known from terrestrial or nearshore environments and indicates the earliest occurrences of fire in the Late Silurian. However, despite the rise in available fuel through the Devonian as vascular land plants became larger and trees and forests evolved, charcoal occurrences are very sparse until the Early Mississippian where extensive charcoal suggests well-established fire systems. We present data from the latest Devonian and Early Mississippian of North America from terrestrial and marine rocks indicating that fire became more widespread and significant at this time. This increase may be a function of rising O2 levels and the occurrence of fire itself may have contributed to this rise through positive feedback. Recent atmospheric modeling suggests an O2 low during the Middle Devonian (around 17.5%), with O2 rising steadily through the Late Devonian and Early Mississippian (to 21–22%) that allowed for widespread burning for the first time. In Devonian-Mississippian marine black shales, fossil charcoal (inertinite) steadily increases up-section suggesting the rise of widespread fire systems. There is a concomitant increase in the amount of vitrinite (preserved woody and other plant tissues) that also suggests increased sources of terrestrial organic matter. Even as end Devonian glaciation was experienced, fossil charcoal continued to be a source of organic matter being introduced into the Devonian oceans. Scanning electron and reflectance microscopy of charcoal from Late Devonian terrestrial sites indicate that the fires were moderately hot (typically 500–600 °C) and burnt mainly surface vegetation dominated by herbaceous zygopterid ferns and lycopsids, rather than being produced by forest crown fires. The occurrence and relative abundance of fossil charcoal in marine black shales are significant in that these shales may provide a more continuous record of fire than is preserved in terrestrial environments. Our data support the idea that major fires are not seen in the fossil record until there is both sufficient and connected fuel and a high enough atmospheric O2 content for it to burn.

Early forest dynamics in stand-replacing fire patches in the northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Treesearch

Brandon M. Collins; Gary B. Roller

2013-01-01

There is considerable concern over the occurrence of stand-replacing fire in forest types historically associated with low- to moderate-severity fire. The concern is largely over whether contemporary levels of stand-replacing fire are outside the historical range of variability, and what natural forest recovery is in these forest types following stand-replacing fire....

Fire-probability maps for the Brazilian Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, M.; Nobre, C.; Obregon, G.; Sampaio, G.

2009-04-01

Most fires in Amazonia result from the combination between climate and land-use factors. They occur mainly in the dry season and are used as an inexpensive tool for land clearing and management. However, their unintended consequences are of important concern. Fire emissions are the most important sources of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the region, accidental fires are a major threat to protected areas, and frequent fires may lead to permanent conversion of forest areas into savannas. Fire-activity models have thus become important tools for environmental analyses in Amazonia. They are used, for example, in warning systems for monitoring the risk of burnings in protected areas, to improve the description of biogeochemical cycles and vegetation composition in ecosystem models, and to help estimate the long-term potential for savannas in biome models. Previous modeling studies for the whole region were produced in units of satellite fire pixels, which complicate their direct use for environmental applications. By reinterpreting remote-sensing based data using a statistical approach, we were able to calibrate models for the whole region in units of probability, or chance of fires to occur. The application of these models for years 2005 and 2006 provided maps of fire potential at 3-month and 0.25-deg resolution as a function of precipitation and distance from main roads. In both years, the performance of the resulting maps was better for the period July-September. During these months, most of satellite-based fire observations were located in areas with relatively high chance of fire, as determined by the modeled probability maps. In addition to reproduce reasonably well the areas presenting maximum fire activity as detected by remote sensing, the new results in units of probability are easier to apply than previous estimates from fire-pixel models.

Fire-probability maps for the Brazilian Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Manoel; Sampaio, Gilvan; Obregon, Guillermo; Nobre, Carlos

2010-05-01

Most fires in Amazonia result from the combination between climate and land-use factors. They occur mainly in the dry season and are used as an inexpensive tool for land clearing and management. However, their unintended consequences are of important concern. Fire emissions are the most important sources of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the region, accidental fires are a major threat to protected areas, and frequent fires may lead to permanent conversion of forest areas into savannas. Fire-activity models have thus become important tools for environmental analyses in Amazonia. They are used, for example, in warning systems for monitoring the risk of burnings in protected areas, to improve the description of biogeochemical cycles and vegetation composition in ecosystem models, and to help estimate the long-term potential for savannas in biome models. Previous modeling studies for the whole region were produced in units of satellite fire pixels, which complicate their direct use for environmental applications. By reinterpreting remote-sensing based data using a statistical approach, we were able to calibrate models for the whole region in units of probability, or chance of fires to occur. The application of these models for years 2005 and 2006 provided maps of fire potential at 3-month and 0.25-deg resolution as a function of precipitation and distance from main roads. In both years, the performance of the resulting maps was better for the period July-September. During these months, most of satellite-based fire observations were located in areas with relatively high chance of fire, as determined by the modeled probability maps. In addition to reproduce reasonably well the areas presenting maximum fire activity as detected by remote sensing, the new results in units of probability are easier to apply than previous estimates from fire-pixel models.

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Philip J.; Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.; Keifer, MaryBeth; Knapp, Eric E.; Flint, Alan; Flint, Lorraine

2013-01-01

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after accounting for fire defences and injuries, and appeared to influence the effects of crown and stem injuries. Climate and fire interactions did not vary substantially across geographical regions, major genera and tree sizes. Our findings support recent physiological evidence showing that both drought and heating from fire can impair xylem conductivity. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire).

Predicting wildfire ignitions, escapes, and large fire activity using Predictive Service’s 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook in the western USA

Treesearch

Karin L. Riley; Crystal Stonesifer; Haiganoush Preisler; Dave Calkin

2014-01-01

Can fire potential forecasts assist with pre-positioning of fire suppression resources, which could result in a cost savings to the United States government? Here, we present a preliminary assessment of the 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook forecasts made by the Predictive Services program. We utilized historical fire occurrence data and archived forecasts to assess how...

Predicting large wildfires across western North America by modeling seasonal variation in soil water balance.

PubMed

Waring, Richard H; Coops, Nicholas C

A lengthening of the fire season, coupled with higher temperatures, increases the probability of fires throughout much of western North America. Although regional variation in the frequency of fires is well established, attempts to predict the occurrence of fire at a spatial resolution <10 km 2 have generally been unsuccessful. We hypothesized that predictions of fires might be improved if depletion of soil water reserves were coupled more directly to maximum leaf area index (LAI max ) and stomatal behavior. In an earlier publication, we used LAI max and a process-based forest growth model to derive and map the maximum available soil water storage capacity (ASW max ) of forested lands in western North America at l km resolution. To map large fires, we used data products acquired from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) over the period 2000-2009. To establish general relationships that incorporate the major biophysical processes that control evaporation and transpiration as well as the flammability of live and dead trees, we constructed a decision tree model (DT). We analyzed seasonal variation in the relative availability of soil water ( fASW ) for the years 2001, 2004, and 2007, representing respectively, low, moderate, and high rankings of areas burned. For these selected years, the DT predicted where forest fires >1 km occurred and did not occur at ~100,000 randomly located pixels with an average accuracy of 69 %. Extended over the decade, the area predicted burnt varied by as much as 50 %. The DT identified four seasonal combinations, most of which included exhaustion of ASW during the summer as critical; two combinations involving antecedent conditions the previous spring or fall accounted for 86 % of the predicted fires. The approach introduced in this paper can help identify forested areas where management efforts to reduce fire hazards might prove most beneficial.

Use of artificial landscapes to isolate controls on burn probability

Treesearch

Marc-Andre Parisien; Carol Miller; Alan A. Ager; Mark A. Finney

2010-01-01

Techniques for modeling burn probability (BP) combine the stochastic components of fire regimes (ignitions and weather) with sophisticated fire growth algorithms to produce high-resolution spatial estimates of the relative likelihood of burning. Despite the numerous investigations of fire patterns from either observed or simulated sources, the specific influence of...

Climate change and wildfires

Treesearch

William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

2013-01-01

Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Littell; David L. Peterson; Karin L. Riley; Yongqiang Liu; Charlie H. Luce

2016-01-01

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity,...

Steppe plant response to seasonal fire

Treesearch

Paulette L. Ford

2003-01-01

Fire is a natural grassland disturbance that affects a variety of ecosystem factors including nutrient cycling, species diversity, and population and community dynamics. Caution is warranted when interpreting the effects of fire on grasslands due to the variety of fire types (e.g. wildfire vs prescribed burn), season of occurrence, weather conditions, grassland uses (e...

Estimating fire properties by remote sensing

Treesearch

P. Riggan; J. Hoffman; J. Brass

2009-01-01

Contemporary knowledge of the role of fire in the global environment is limited by inadequate measurements of the extent and impact of individual fires. Observations by operational polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites provide an indication of fire occurrence but are ill-suited for estimating the temperature, area, or radiant emissions of active wildland and...

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Ecosystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David R.; Foster, Tammy E.; Carter, Geoffrey M.; Duncan, Brean W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Lyon, James E.

2017-01-01

The combined effects of repeated fires, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire and not fire history. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells that represented potential territories because frequent fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities between states varied annually as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges, precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presenceabsence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the maximum fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Measuring territory quality states and environmental covariates each year combined with multistate modeling provided a useful empirical approach to quantify the effects of repeated fire in combinations with environmental variables on transition probabilities that drive management strategies and ecosystem change.

Static and dynamic controls on fire activity at moderate spatial and temporal scales in the Alaskan boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barrett, Kirsten; Loboda, Tatiana; McGuire, A. David; Genet, Hélène; Hoy, Elizabeth; Kasischke, Eric

2016-01-01

Wildfire, a dominant disturbance in boreal forests, is highly variable in occurrence and behavior at multiple spatiotemporal scales. New data sets provide more detailed spatial and temporal observations of active fires and the post-burn environment in Alaska. In this study, we employ some of these new data to analyze variations in fire activity by developing three explanatory models to examine the occurrence of (1) seasonal periods of elevated fire activity using the number of MODIS active fire detections data set (MCD14DL) within an 11-day moving window, (2) unburned patches within a burned area using the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire severity product, and (3) short-to-moderate interval (<60 yr) fires using areas of burned area overlap in the Alaska Large Fire Database. Explanatory variables for these three models included dynamic variables that can change over the course of the fire season, such as weather and burn date, as well as static variables that remain constant over a fire season, such as topography, drainage, vegetation cover, and fire history. We found that seasonal periods of high fire activity are associated with both seasonal timing and aggregated weather conditions, as well as the landscape composition of areas that are burning. Important static inputs to the model of seasonal fire activity indicate that when fire weather conditions are suitable, areas that typically resist fire (e.g., deciduous stands) may become more vulnerable to burning and therefore less effective as fire breaks. The occurrence of short-to-moderate interval fires appears to be primarily driven by weather conditions, as these were the only relevant explanatory variables in the model. The unique importance of weather in explaining short-to-moderate interval fires implies that fire return intervals (FRIs) will be sensitive to projected climate changes in the region. Unburned patches occur most often in younger stands, which may be related to a greater deciduous fraction of vegetation as well as lower fuel loads compared with mature stands. The fraction of unburned patches may therefore increase in response to decreasing FRIs and increased deciduousness in the region, or these may decrease if fire weather conditions become more severe.

On the characterization of vegetation recovery after fire disturbance using Fisher-Shannon analysis and SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasaponara, Rosa; Lanorte, Antonio; Lovallo, Michele; Telesca, Luciano

2015-04-01

Time series can fruitfully support fire monitoring and management from statistical analysis of fire occurrence (Tuia et al. 2008) to danger estimation (lasaponara 2005), damage evaluation (Lanorte et al 2014) and post fire recovery (Lanorte et al. 2014). In this paper, the time dynamics of SPOT-VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series are analyzed by using the statistical approach of the Fisher-Shannon (FS) information plane to assess and monitor vegetation recovery after fire disturbance. Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis allows us to gain insight into the complex structure of a time series to quantify its degree of organization and order. The analysis was carried out using 10-day Maximum Value Composites of NDVI (MVC-NDVI) with a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution. The investigation was performed on two test sites located in Galizia (North Spain) and Peloponnese (South Greece), selected for the vast fires which occurred during the summer of 2006 and 2007 and for their different vegetation covers made up mainly of low shrubland in Galizia test site and evergreen forest in Peloponnese. Time series of MVC-NDVI have been analyzed before and after the occurrence of the fire events. Results obtained for both the investigated areas clearly pointed out that the dynamics of the pixel time series before the occurrence of the fire is characterized by a larger degree of disorder and uncertainty; while the pixel time series after the occurrence of the fire are featured by a higher degree of organization and order. In particular, regarding the Peloponneso fire, such discrimination is more evident than in the Galizia fire. This suggests a clear possibility to discriminate the different post-fire behaviors and dynamics exhibited by the different vegetation covers. Reference Lanorte A, R Lasaponara, M Lovallo, L Telesca 2014 Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis of SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to characterize vegetation recovery after fire disturbanceInternational Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 26 441-446 Lanorte A, M Danese, R Lasaponara, B Murgante 2014 Multiscale mapping of burn area and severity using multisensor satellite data and spatial autocorrelation analysis International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 20, 42-51 Tuia D, F Ratle, R Lasaponara, L Telesca, M Kanevski 2008 Scan statistics analysis of forest fire clusters Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (8), 1689-1694 Telesca L, R Lasaponara 2006 Pre and post fire behavioral trends revealed in satellite NDVI time series Geophysical Research Letters 33 (14) Lasaponara R 2005 Intercomparison of AVHRR based fire susceptibility indicators for the Mediterranean ecosystems of southern Italy International Journal of Remote Sensing 26 (5), 853-870

Timing fire to minimize damage in managing oak ecosystems

Treesearch

Daniel C. Dey; Callie Jo Schweitzer

2015-01-01

The long history of fire in North America spans millennia and is recognized as an important driver in the widespread and long-term dominance of oak species. Early European settlers intensified the occurrence of fire from about 1850 to 1950, with dates varying by region. This resulted in much forest damage and gained fire a negative reputation. The lack of fire for the...

Characterizing Predictability of Fire Occurrence in Tropical Forests and Grasslands: The Case of Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Ana Carolina Monmany; William Gould; Maria Jose Andrade-Nunez; Grizelle Gonzalez; Maya Quinones

2017-01-01

Global estimates of fire frequency indicate that over 70% of active fires occur in the tropics, and the size and frequency of fires are increasing every year. The majority of fires in the tropics are an unintended consequence of current land-use practices that promotes the establishment of grass and shrubland communities, which are more flammable and more adapted to...

The Relationship of Forest Fires Detected by MODIS and SRTM Derived Topographic Features in Central Siberia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranson, Jon K.; Kovacs, Katalin; Kharuk, Viatcheslav; Burke, Erin

2006-01-01

Fires are a common occurrence in the Siberian boreal forest. The MOD14 Thermal anomalies product of the Terra MODIS Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer) product set is designed to detect thermal anomalies (i.e. hotspots or fires) on the Earth's surface. Recent field studies showed a dependence of fire occurrence on topography. In this study MODIS thermal anomaly data and SRTM topography data were merged and analyzed to evaluate if forest fires are more likely to occur at certain combinations of elevation, slope and aspect. Using the satellite data over a large area can lead to better understanding how topography and forest fires are related. The study area covers a 2.5 Million krn(exp 2) portion of the Central Siberian southern taiga from 72 deg to 110 deg East and from 50 deg to 60 deg North. About 57% of the study area is forested and 80% of the forest grows between 200 and 1000 m. Forests with pine (Pinus sylvestris), larch (Larix sibirica, L. gmelinii), Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica), spruce (Picea obovata.) and fir (Abies sibirica) cover most of the landscape. Deciduous stands with birch (Betula pendula, B. pubescens) and aspen (Populus tremula) cover the areas of lower elevation in this region. The climate of this area is distinctly continental with long, cold winters and short hot summers. The tree line in this part of the world is around 1500 m in elevation with alpine tundra, snow and ice fields and rock outcrops extending up to over 3800 m. A 500 m resolution landcover map was developed using 2001 MODIS MOD13 Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Middle Infrared (MIR) products for seven 16-day periods. The classification accuracy was over 87%. The SRTM version 2 data, which is distributed in 1 degree by 1 degree tiles were mosaiced using the ENVI software. In this study, only those MODIS pixels were used that were flagged as "nominal or high confidence fire" by the MODIS fire product team. Using MODIS data from the years 2000 to 2005 along with the improved Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) version 2 data at 100 m resolution, the distribution of hot spots was examined by elevation, slope and aspect as well as by forest type. The results show that more forest area burns at lower elevations but a larger percentage of the available forest area burns at higher elevations. This is probably because steep slopes occur at higher elevations. Fires are only more common on slopes with a southern exposure if the slope is steeper than 15 degrees. The next step in this study will be to monitor areas where the risk of fire is high (steep slopes with a southern exposure) and to refine this method by incorporating anthropogenic features for more accurate fire disturbance monitoring.

Fire and ecosystem change in the Arctic across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denis, E. H.; Pedentchouk, N.; Schouten, S.; Pagani, M.; Freeman, K. H.

2016-12-01

Fire, an important component of ecosystems at a range of spatial and temporal scales, affects vegetation distribution, the carbon cycle, and climate. In turn, climate influences fuel composition (e.g., amount and type of vegetation), fuel availability (e.g., vegetation that can burn based on precipitation and temperature), and ignition sources (e.g., lightning). Climate studies predict increased wildfire activity in future decades, but mechanisms that control the relationship between climate and fire are complex. Reconstructing environmental conditions during past warming events (e.g., the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)) will help elucidate climate-vegetation-fire relationships that are expressed over long durations (1,000 - 10,000 yrs). The abrupt global warming during the PETM dramatically altered vegetation and hydrologic patterns, and, possibly, fire occurrence. To investigate coincident changes in climate, vegetation, and fire occurrence, we studied biomarkers, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), terpenoids, and alkanes from the PETM interval at IODP site 302 (the Lomonosov Ridge) in the Arctic Ocean. Both pollen and biomarker records indicate angiosperms abundance increased during the PETM relative to gymnosperms, reflecting a significant ecological shift to angiosperm-dominated vegetation. PAH abundances increased relative to plant biomarkers throughout the PETM, which suggests PAH production increased relative to plant productivity. Increased PAH production associated with the angiosperm vegetation shift indicates a greater prevalence of more fire-prone species. A time lag between increased moisture transport (based on published δD of n-alkanes data) to the Arctic and increased angiosperms and PAH production suggests wetter conditions, followed by increased air temperatures, favored angiosperms and combined to enhance fire occurrence.

Managing risk with chance-constrained programming

Treesearch

Michael Bevers; Brian Kent

2007-01-01

Reducing catastrophic fire risk is an important objective of many fuel treatment programs (Kent et al. 2003; Machlis et al. 2002; USDA/USDI 2001a). In practice, risk reductions can be accomplished by lowering the probability of a given loss to forest fires, the amount of probable loss, or both. Forest fire risk objectives are seldom quantified, however, making it...

Surface Fire Influence on Carbon Balance Components in Scots Pine Forest of Siberia, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukavskaya, E.; Ivanova, G. A.; Conard, S. G.; Soja, A. J.

2008-12-01

Wildfire is one of the most important disturbances in boreal forests, and it can have a profound effect on forest-atmosphere carbon exchange. Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine) stands of Siberia are strongly impacted by fires of low to high severity. Biomass distribution in mature lichen/feathermoss Scots pine stands indicates that they are carbon sinks before fire. Fires contribute significantly to the carbon budget resulting in a considerable carbon efflux, initially through direct consumption of forest fuels and later as a result of tree mortality and decomposition of dead material accumulated on the forest floor. In initial postfire years these processes dominate over photosynthetic carbon assimilation, and the ecosystems become a carbon source. Over several postfire years, above-ground carbon in dead biomass tends to increase, with the increase depending significantly on fire severity. High-severity fire enhances dead biomass carbon, while moderate- and low-severity fires have minimal effect on above-ground carbon distribution in Scots pine ecosystems. Dead stand biomass carbon increases, primarily during the first two years following fires, due to tree mortality. This increase can account for up to 12.4% of the total stand biomass after low- and moderate- intensity fires. We found tree dieback following a high-intensity fire is an order of magnitude higher, and thus the dead biomass increases up to 88.1% of total above-ground biomass. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake decreases with increasing tree mortality, and needle foliage and bark are incorporated into the upper layer of the forest floor in the course of years. Ground vegetation and duff carbon were >90, 71-83, and 82% of prefire levels after fires of low, moderate, and high severity, respectively for the first 4 to 5 years after fire. Fires of low and moderate severity caused down woody fuel carbon to increase by 2.1 and 3.6 t ha-1 respectively by four years after burning as compared to the pre-fire values. Climate change and increasing drought length observed in recent decades have increased the probability of high-intensity fire occurrence. Areas burned have increased in extent and severity across Siberia, resulting in increased carbon emissions to the atmosphere from fuel combustion and post fire decomposition.

Combining satellite-based fire observations and ground-based lightning detections to identify lightning fires across the conterminous USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Radeloff, V.C.

2012-01-01

Lightning fires are a common natural disturbance in North America, and account for the largest proportion of the area burned by wildfires each year. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns of lightning fires in the conterminous US are not well understood due to limitations of existing fire databases. Our goal here was to develop and test an algorithm that combined MODIS fire detections with lightning detections from the National Lightning Detection Network to identify lightning fires across the conterminous US from 2000 to 2008. The algorithm searches for spatiotemporal conjunctions of MODIS fire clusters and NLDN detected lightning strikes, given a spatiotemporal lag between lightning strike and fire ignition. The algorithm revealed distinctive spatial patterns of lightning fires in the conterminous US While a sensitivity analysis revealed that the algorithm is highly sensitive to the two thresholds that are used to determine conjunction, the density of fires it detected was moderately correlated with ground based fire records. When only fires larger than 0.4 km2 were considered, correlations were higher and the root-mean-square error between datasets was less than five fires per 625 km2 for the entire study period. Our algorithm is thus suitable for detecting broad scale spatial patterns of lightning fire occurrence, and especially lightning fire hotspots, but has limited detection capability of smaller fires because these cannot be consistently detected by MODIS. These results may enhance our understanding of large scale patterns of lightning fire activity, and can be used to identify the broad scale factors controlling fire occurrence.

A probabilistic view of chaparral and forest fire regimes in southern California and northern Baja California

Treesearch

Richard A. Minnich; Ernesto Franco-Vizcaíno

2009-01-01

Fire suppression in industrialized countries encourages massive smoke emissions from high-intensity fires as a result of two inextricably related processes under current suppression policies: the nonrandom occurrence of vegetation fires in extreme weather states and the anomalous accumulation of spatially homogenous fuels. We propose as an organizing idea that the...

Human and biophysical factors influencing modern fire disturbance in northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; David T. Cleland

2007-01-01

Humans cause most wildfires in northern Wisconsin, but interactions between human and biophysical variables affecting fire starts and size are not well understood. We applied classification tree analyses to a 16-year fire database from northern Wisconsin to evaluate the relative importance of human v. biophysical variables affecting fire occurrence within (1) all cover...

DETERMINATION OF PERFLUOROCARBOXYLATES IN GROUNDWATER IMPACTED BY FIRE-FIGHTING ACTIVITY. (R821195)

EPA Science Inventory

Perfluorinated surfactants are used in aqueous film forming foam (AFFF)
formulations, which are used to extinguish hydrocarbon-fuel fires. Virtually
nothing is known about the occurrence of perfluorinated surfactants in the
environment, in particular, at fire-train...

A Contextual Fire Detection Algorithm for Simulated HJ-1B Imagery.

PubMed

Qian, Yonggang; Yan, Guangjian; Duan, Sibo; Kong, Xiangsheng

2009-01-01

The HJ-1B satellite, which was launched on September 6, 2008, is one of the small ones placed in the constellation for disaster prediction and monitoring. HJ-1B imagery was simulated in this paper, which contains fires of various sizes and temperatures in a wide range of terrestrial biomes and climates, including RED, NIR, MIR and TIR channels. Based on the MODIS version 4 contextual algorithm and the characteristics of HJ-1B sensor, a contextual fire detection algorithm was proposed and tested using simulated HJ-1B data. It was evaluated by the probability of fire detection and false alarm as functions of fire temperature and fire area. Results indicate that when the simulated fire area is larger than 45 m(2) and the simulated fire temperature is larger than 800 K, the algorithm has a higher probability of detection. But if the simulated fire area is smaller than 10 m(2), only when the simulated fire temperature is larger than 900 K, may the fire be detected. For fire areas about 100 m(2), the proposed algorithm has a higher detection probability than that of the MODIS product. Finally, the omission and commission error were evaluated which are important factors to affect the performance of this algorithm. It has been demonstrated that HJ-1B satellite data are much sensitive to smaller and cooler fires than MODIS or AVHRR data and the improved capabilities of HJ-1B data will offer a fine opportunity for the fire detection.

Effects of ignition location models on the burn patterns of simulated wildfires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Syphard, A.D.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Radeloff, V.C.

2011-01-01

Fire simulation studies that use models such as FARSITE often assume that ignition locations are distributed randomly, because spatially explicit information about actual ignition locations are difficult to obtain. However, many studies show that the spatial distribution of ignition locations, whether human-caused or natural, is non-random. Thus, predictions from fire simulations based on random ignitions may be unrealistic. However, the extent to which the assumption of ignition location affects the predictions of fire simulation models has never been systematically explored. Our goal was to assess the difference in fire simulations that are based on random versus non-random ignition location patterns. We conducted four sets of 6000 FARSITE simulations for the Santa Monica Mountains in California to quantify the influence of random and non-random ignition locations and normal and extreme weather conditions on fire size distributions and spatial patterns of burn probability. Under extreme weather conditions, fires were significantly larger for non-random ignitions compared to random ignitions (mean area of 344.5 ha and 230.1 ha, respectively), but burn probability maps were highly correlated (r = 0.83). Under normal weather, random ignitions produced significantly larger fires than non-random ignitions (17.5 ha and 13.3 ha, respectively), and the spatial correlations between burn probability maps were not high (r = 0.54), though the difference in the average burn probability was small. The results of the study suggest that the location of ignitions used in fire simulation models may substantially influence the spatial predictions of fire spread patterns. However, the spatial bias introduced by using a random ignition location model may be minimized if the fire simulations are conducted under extreme weather conditions when fire spread is greatest. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States.

PubMed

van Mantgem, Phillip J; Nesmith, Jonathan C B; Keifer, MaryBeth; Knapp, Eric E; Flint, Alan; Flint, Lorriane

2013-09-01

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after accounting for fire defences and injuries, and appeared to influence the effects of crown and stem injuries. Climate and fire interactions did not vary substantially across geographical regions, major genera and tree sizes. Our findings support recent physiological evidence showing that both drought and heating from fire can impair xylem conductivity. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire). Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Anthropic disturbances in the sedimentological characteristics of a Northern Patagonian lake: evidencing the impacts of the 20th century settlement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araneda, A.; Muñoz, V.; Valenzuela, B.; Alvarez, D.; Torrejon, F.; Pedreros, P.; Urrutia, R.

2013-12-01

Traditionally Patagonia has been seen as a very pristine area, being an important reserve of wildlife and clean waters. Nonetheless it was dramatically affected by the first settlers at the beginning of the 20th century, that generated large fires for clearing the land originally covered by native forest. Those fires produced a dramatic impact left behind thousands of dead trees, increasing soil erosion, altering nutrient inputs in the aquatic ecosystems, which in turn affected the aquatic biota. However those impacts have been barely asses, then through the study of the sediment record of lake La Esponja (45°S) we want to evaluate the magnitude of the changes produced by the fires and to determine the resilience capacity of the lake. We analyzed magnetic susceptibility, organic content, charcoal, total phosphorous and a biological proxy (Chironomidae) in a sediment sequence of 60 cm long. Magnetic susceptibility shows a very variable behavior along the profile, being possible to identify a decreasing trend since the bottom, up to the most recent part of the record. An opposite behavior describes the organic content, showing a noticeable increase toward the surficial sediments. The number of charcoal particles -a direct indicator of fires occurrence, shows a peak of fires approximately at seven cm depth, diminishing toward the recent part. Total phosphorous also follow the trend recognized by charcoal, which allow inferring a probable trophic increase of the lake. This trend is partially recognized by chironomid assemblages through the increasing of some taxa typical of a higher nutrient status. Acknowledgements: Fondecyt projects 1120765 and 1120807.

Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

2008-12-01

We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for california wildfire, and their intersection with a range of development scenarios for California.

Forest fire weather and computed fire occurrence in western Oregon and western Washington in 1960.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1960-01-01

Fire season severity in 1960 was about average in western Washington but was very high in western Oregon. Severity of the entire season in both States was slightly greater than in 1959. Although spring was less severe, both summer and fall were slightly more severe than comparable parts of the previous fire season. Spring fire danger in western Washington was as low as...

The double slit experiment and the time reversed fire alarm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halabi, Tarek

2011-03-01

When both slits of the double slit experiment are open, closing one paradoxically increases the detection rate at some points on the detection screen. Feynman famously warned that temptation to "understand" such a puzzling feature only draws us into blind alleys. Nevertheless, we gain insight into this feature by drawing an analogy between the double slit experiment and a time reversed fire alarm. Much as closing the slit increases probability of a future detection, ruling out fire drill scenarios, having heard the fire alarm, increases probability of a past fire (using Bayesian inference). Classically, Bayesian inference is associated with computing probabilities of past events. We therefore identify this feature of the double slit experiment with a time reversed thermodynamic arrow. We believe that much of the enigma of quantum mechanics is simply due to some variation of time's arrow.

Focused sunlight factor of forest fire danger assessment using Web-GIS and RS technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranovskiy, Nikolay V.; Sherstnyov, Vladislav S.; Yankovich, Elena P.; Engel, Marina V.; Belov, Vladimir V.

2016-08-01

Timiryazevskiy forestry of Tomsk region (Siberia, Russia) is a study area elaborated in current research. Forest fire danger assessment is based on unique technology using probabilistic criterion, statistical data on forest fires, meteorological conditions, forest sites classification and remote sensing data. MODIS products are used for estimating some meteorological conditions and current forest fire situation. Geonformation technologies are used for geospatial analysis of forest fire danger situation on controlled forested territories. GIS-engine provides opportunities to construct electronic maps with different levels of forest fire probability and support raster layer for satellite remote sensing data on current forest fires. Web-interface is used for data loading on specific web-site and for forest fire danger data representation via World Wide Web. Special web-forms provide interface for choosing of relevant input data in order to process the forest fire danger data and assess the forest fire probability.

Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Margolis, Ellis; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the onset of fire exclusion in the late 1800s. Variability in cool-season precipitation has been linked to fire occurrence, but the effects of the summer North American monsoon on fire are less understood, as are the effects of climate on fire seasonality. We use a new set of reconstructions for cool-season (October–April) and monsoon-season (July–August) moisture conditions along with a large new fire scar dataset to examine relationships between multi-seasonal climate variability, fire extent, and fire seasonality in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1599–1899 CE). Results suggest that large fires burning in all seasons are strongly influenced by the current year cool-season moisture, but fires burning mid-summer to fall are also influenced by monsoon moisture. Wet conditions several years prior to the fire year during the cool season, and to a lesser extent during the monsoon season, are also important for spring through late-summer fires. Persistent cool-season drought longer than 3 years may inhibit fires due to the lack of moisture to replenish surface fuels. This suggests that fuels may become increasingly limiting for fire occurrence in semi-arid regions that are projected to become drier with climate change.

A synopsis of large or disastrous wildland fires

Treesearch

Robert E. Martin; David B. Sapsis

1995-01-01

Wildland fires have occurred for centuries in North America and other selected countries and can be segregated into three periods: prehistoric (presuppression) fires, suppression period fires, and fire management period fires. Prehistoric fires varied in size and damage but were probably viewed fatalistically. Suppression period fires were based on policy that excluded...

Wildland Fire Prevention: Today, Intuition--Tomorrow, Management

Treesearch

Albert J. Simard; Linda R. Donoghue

1987-01-01

Describes, from a historical perspective, methods used to characterize fire prevention problems and evaluate prevention programs and discusses past research efforts to bolster these analytical and management efforts. Highlights research on the sociological perspectives of the wildfire problem and on quantitative fire occurrence prediction and program evaluation systems...

Human and climatic influences on fire occurrence in California's north coast range

Treesearch

Carl Skinner; Celeste Abbott; Danny Fry; Scott Stephens; Alan Taylor; Valerie Trouet

2009-01-01

Outside of the immediate coastal environments, little is known of fire history in the North Coast Range of California. Fire scar specimens were collected from ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa C. Lawson), sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana Douglas), incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens [Torr] Florin), and...

Using weather forecasts for predicting forest-fire danger

Treesearch

H. T. Gisborne

1925-01-01

Three kinds of weather control the fluctuations of forest-fire danger-wet weather, dry weather, and windy weather. Two other conditions also contribute to the fluctuation of fire danger. These are the occurrence of lightning and the activities of man. But neither of these fire-starting agencies is fully effective unless the weather has dried out the forest materials so...

Large-scale patterns of forest fire occurrence in the Conterminous United States and Alaska, 2001-08

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter

2012-01-01

Wildland fire represents an important ecological mechanism in many forest ecosystems. It shapes the distributions of species, maintains the structure and function of fire-prone communities, and is a significant evolutionary force (Bond and Keeley 2005). At the same time, fire outside the historic range of frequency and intensity can have extensive economic and...

Large-scale patterns of forest fire occurrence in the conterminous United States and Alaska, 2009

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter

2013-01-01

Wildland fire represents an important ecological mechanism in many forest ecosystems. It shapes the distributions of species, maintains the structure and function of fire-prone communities, and is a significant evolutionary force (Bond and Keeley 2005). At the same time, fire outside the historic range of frequency and intensity can have extensive economic and...

Chapter 3 - Large-scale patterns of forest fire occurrence in the conterminous United States, Alaska and Hawaii, 2016

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter

2018-01-01

As a pervasive disturbance agent operating at many spatial and temporal scales, wildland fire is a key abiotic factor affecting forest health both positively and negatively. In some ecosystems, for example, wildland fires have been essential for regulating processes that maintain forest health (Lundquist and others 2011). Wildland fire is an important ecological...

Forest Fire History... A Computer Method of Data Analysis

Treesearch

Romain M. Meese

1973-01-01

A series of computer programs is available to extract information from the individual Fire Reports (U.S. Forest Service Form 5100-29). The programs use a statistical technique to fit a continuous distribution to a set of sampled data. The goodness-of-fit program is applicable to data other than the fire history. Data summaries illustrate analysis of fire occurrence,...

Forest fire weather and computed fire occurrence in western Oregon and western Washington.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1959-01-01

Severity of the 1959 fire season varied from well below normal in western Washington to a record-setting high in southwestern Oregon. The season was characterized by well-distributed, short rainy periods separated by comparatively short dry spells that frequently included days of high fire danger. July was the only month with markedly above-normal temperatures, and...

Application of wildfire simulation methods to assess wildfire exposure in a Mediterranean fire-prone area (Sardinia, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, M.; Ager, A.; Arca, B.; Finney, M.; Bacciu, V. M.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

2012-12-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of fire spread and behavior are dependent on interactions among climate, topography, vegetation and fire suppression efforts (Pyne et al. 1996; Viegas 2006; Falk et al. 2007). Humans also play a key role in determining frequency and spatial distribution of ignitions (Bar Massada et al, 2011), and thus influence fire regimes as well. The growing incidence of catastrophic wildfires has led to substantial losses for important ecological and human values within many areas of the Mediterranean basin (Moreno et al. 1998; Mouillot et al. 2005; Viegas et al. 2006a; Riaño et al. 2007). The growing fire risk issue has led to many new programs and policies of fuel management and risk mitigation by environmental and fire agencies. However, risk-based methodologies to help identify areas characterized by high potential losses and prioritize fuel management have been lacking for the region. Formal risk assessment requires the joint consideration of likelihood, intensity, and susceptibility, the product of which estimates the chance of a specific loss (Brillinger 2003; Society of Risk Analysis, 2006). Quantifying fire risk therefore requires estimates of a) the probability of a specific location burning at a specific intensity and location, and b) the resulting change in financial or ecological value (Finney 2005; Scott 2006). When large fires are the primary cause of damage, the application of this risk formulation requires modeling fire spread to capture landscape properties that affect burn probability. Recently, the incorporation of large fire spread into risk assessment systems has become feasible with the development of high performance fire simulation systems (Finney et al. 2011) that permit the simulation of hundreds of thousands of fires to generate fine scale maps of burn probability, flame length, and fire size, while considering the combined effects of weather, fuels, and topography (Finney 2002; Andrews et al. 2007; Ager and Finney 2009; Finney et al. 2009; Salis et al. 2012 accepted). In this work, we employed wildfire simulation methods to quantify wildfire exposure to human and ecological values for the island of Sardinia, Italy. The work was focused on the risk and exposure posed by large fires (e.g. 100 - 10,000 ha), and considers historical weather, ignition patterns and fuels. We simulated 100,000 fires using burn periods that replicated the historical size distribution on the Island, and an ignition probability grid derived from historic ignition data. We then examine spatial variation in three exposure components (burn probability, flame length, fire size) among important human and ecological values. The results allowed us to contract exposure among and within the various features examined, and highlighted the importance of human factors in shaping wildfire exposure in Sardinia. The work represents the first application of burn probability modeling in the Mediterranean region, and sets the stage for expanded work in the region to quantify risk from large fires

Spatial and temporal selectivity patterns of fires in Attika, Greece from 1984 to 2015 delineated from Landsat time series satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamos, Zoi; Koutsias, Nikos

2017-04-01

The aim of this study is to assess spatial and temporalfire selectivity patterns in the region of Attica - Greece from 1984 to 2015. Our work is implemented in two distinct phases: the first consists of the accurate delineation of the fire perimeter using satellite remote sensing technology, and the second consists of the application of suitable GIS supported analyses to develop thematic layers that optimally summarised the spatial and temporal information of fire occurrence. Fire perimeters of wildland fires occurred within the time window 1984-2015 were delineated from freely available Landsat images from USGS and ESA sources.More than three thousands satellite images were processed in order to extract fire perimeters and create maps of fire frequency and fire return interval. In total one thousand and one hundred twenty fire perimeters were recorded during this thirty years' period. Fire perimeters within each year of fire occurrence were compared against the available to burn under complete random processes to identify selectivity patterns over (i) CORINE land use/land cover, (ii) fire frequency and (iii) time since last firemaps. For example, non- irrigated arable lands, complex cultivation patterns and discontinuous urban fabrics are negative related with fires, while coniferous forests, sclerophyllous vegetation and transitional woodlands seem to be preferable by the fires. Additionally, it seems that fires prefer their old burnings (two and three times burned) and also places with different patterns of time since last fire depending on the time needed by the type of vegetation to recover and thus to re-burn.

The footprint of Alaskan tundra fires during the past half-century: implications for surface properties and radiative forcing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rocha, Adrian V.; Loranty, Michael M.; Higuera, Phil E.; Mack, Michelle C.; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Benjamin M.; Breen, Amy L.; Rastetter, Edward B.; Goetz, Scott J.; Shaver, Gus R.

2012-01-01

Recent large and frequent fires above the Alaskan arctic circle have forced a reassessment of the ecological and climatological importance of fire in arctic tundra ecosystems. Here we provide a general overview of the occurrence, distribution, and ecological and climate implications of Alaskan tundra fires over the past half-century using spatially explicit climate, fire, vegetation and remote sensing datasets for Alaska. Our analyses highlight the importance of vegetation biomass and environmental conditions in regulating tundra burning, and demonstrate that most tundra ecosystems are susceptible to burn, providing the environmental conditions are right. Over the past two decades, fire perimeters above the arctic circle have increased in size and importance, especially on the North Slope, indicating that future wildfire projections should account for fire regime changes in these regions. Remote sensing data and a literature review of thaw depths indicate that tundra fires have both positive and negative implications for climatic feedbacks including a decadal increase in albedo radiative forcing immediately after a fire, a stimulation of surface greenness and a persistent long-term (>10 year) increase in thaw depth. In order to address the future impact of tundra fires on climate, a better understanding of the control of tundra fire occurrence as well as the long-term impacts on ecosystem carbon cycling will be required.

Satellite observations for describing fire patterns and climate-related fire drivers in the Brazilian savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verola Mataveli, Guilherme Augusto; Siqueira Silva, Maria Elisa; Pereira, Gabriel; da Silva Cardozo, Francielle; Shinji Kawakubo, Fernando; Bertani, Gabriel; Cezar Costa, Julio; de Cássia Ramos, Raquel; Valéria da Silva, Viviane

2018-01-01

In the Brazilian savannas (Cerrado biome) fires are natural and a tool for shifting land use; therefore, temporal and spatial patterns result from the interaction of climate, vegetation condition and human activities. Moreover, orbital sensors are the most effective approach to establish patterns in the biome. We aimed to characterize fire, precipitation and vegetation condition regimes and to establish spatial patterns of fire occurrence and their correlation with precipitation and vegetation condition in the Cerrado. The Cerrado was first and second biome for the occurrence of burned areas (BA) and hotspots, respectively. Occurrences are higher during the dry season and in the savanna land use. Hotspots and BA tend to decrease, and concentrate in the north, but more intense hotspots are not necessarily located where concentration is higher. Spatial analysis showed that averaged and summed values can hide patterns, such as for precipitation, which has the lowest average in August, but minimum precipitation in August was found in 7 % of the Cerrado. Usually, there is a 2-3-month lag between minimum precipitation and maximum hotspots and BA, while minimum VCI and maximum hotspots and BA occur in the same month. Hotspots and BA are better correlated with VCI than precipitation, qualifying VCI as an indicator of the susceptibility of vegetation to ignition.

Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

2013-01-01

There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

Fire and aquatic ecosystems in forested biomes of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gresswell, Robert E.

1999-01-01

Synthesis of the literature suggests that physical, chemical, and biological elements of a watershed interact with long-term climate to influence fire regime, and that these factors, in concordance with the postfire vegetation mosaic, combine with local-scale weather to govern the trajectory and magnitude of change following a fire event. Perturbation associated with hydrological processes is probably the primary factor influencing postfire persistence of fishes, benthic macroinvertebrates, and diatoms in fluvial systems. It is apparent that salmonids have evolved strategies to survive perturbations occurring at the frequency of wildland fires (100a??102 years), but local populations of a species may be more ephemeral. Habitat alteration probably has the greatest impact on individual organisms and local populations that are the least mobile, and reinvasion will be most rapid by aquatic organisms with high mobility. It is becoming increasingly apparent that during the past century fire suppression has altered fire regimes in some vegetation types, and consequently, the probability of large stand-replacing fires has increased in those areas. Current evidence suggests, however, that even in the case of extensive high-severity fires, local extirpation of fishes is patchy, and recolonization is rapid. Lasting detrimental effects on fish populations have been limited to areas where native populations have declined and become increasingly isolated because of anthropogenic activities. A strategy of protecting robust aquatic communities and restoring aquatic habitat structure and life history complexity in degraded areas may be the most effective means for insuring the persistence of native biota where the probability of large-scale fires has increased.

A Contextual Fire Detection Algorithm for Simulated HJ-1B Imagery

PubMed Central

Qian, Yonggang; Yan, Guangjian; Duan, Sibo; Kong, Xiangsheng

2009-01-01

The HJ-1B satellite, which was launched on September 6, 2008, is one of the small ones placed in the constellation for disaster prediction and monitoring. HJ-1B imagery was simulated in this paper, which contains fires of various sizes and temperatures in a wide range of terrestrial biomes and climates, including RED, NIR, MIR and TIR channels. Based on the MODIS version 4 contextual algorithm and the characteristics of HJ-1B sensor, a contextual fire detection algorithm was proposed and tested using simulated HJ-1B data. It was evaluated by the probability of fire detection and false alarm as functions of fire temperature and fire area. Results indicate that when the simulated fire area is larger than 45 m2 and the simulated fire temperature is larger than 800 K, the algorithm has a higher probability of detection. But if the simulated fire area is smaller than 10 m2, only when the simulated fire temperature is larger than 900 K, may the fire be detected. For fire areas about 100 m2, the proposed algorithm has a higher detection probability than that of the MODIS product. Finally, the omission and commission error were evaluated which are important factors to affect the performance of this algorithm. It has been demonstrated that HJ-1B satellite data are much sensitive to smaller and cooler fires than MODIS or AVHRR data and the improved capabilities of HJ-1B data will offer a fine opportunity for the fire detection. PMID:22399950

Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Miguel M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Feridun Turkman, K.

2018-02-01

We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based on daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and is estimated using a daily model based on a generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger are then associated with daily probability estimated by the daily model. The model is calibrated using 13 years of data (2004-2016) and validated against the period of January-September 2017. Results obtained show that about 72 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the extreme class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than 1.5 times the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.

Atmospheric conditions associated with extreme fire activity in the Western Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Amraoui, Malik; Pereira, Mário G; DaCamara, Carlos C; Calado, Teresa J

2015-08-15

Active fire information provided by TERRA and AQUA instruments on-board sun-synchronous polar MODIS platform is used to describe fire activity in the Western Mediterranean and to identify and characterize the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields associated with the occurrence of extreme fire activity episodes (EEs). The spatial distribution of the fire pixels during the period of 2003-2012 leads to the identification of two most affected sub-regions, namely the Northern and Western parts of the Iberian Peninsula (NWIP) and Northern Africa (NAFR). The temporal distribution of the fire pixels in these two sub-regions is characterized by: (i) high and non-concurrent inter- and intra-annual variability with maximum values during the summer of 2003 and 2005 in NWIP and 2007 and 2012 in NAFR; and, (ii) high intra-annual variability dominated by a prominent annual cycle with a main peak centred in August in both sub-regions and a less pronounced secondary peak in March only evident in NWIP region. The 34 EEs identified were grouped according to the location, period of occurrence and spatial configuration of the associated synoptic patterns into 3 clusters (NWIP-summer, NWIP-winter and NAFR-summer). Results from the composite analysis reveal similar fire weather conditions (statistically significant positive anomalies of air temperature and negative anomalies of air relative humidity) but associated with different circulation patterns at lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere associated with the occurrence of EEs in each cluster of the Western Mediterranean region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A database on post-fire erosion rates and debris flows in Mediterranean-Basin watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parise, M.; Cannon, S. H.

2009-04-01

Wildfires can affect many Mediterranean countries on a yearly bases, producing damage and economic losses, both as direct effect of the fires and as consequent events, including erosion and sedimentation in the recently burned areas. Even though most of the wildfires occur in Spain, Portugal, southern France, Italy and Greece, it can be stated that no one of the Mediterranean countries is completely immune by such hazards. In addition to destruction of the vegetation, and in addition to direct losses to the built-up environment, further effects may also be registered as a consequence of the fire, even weeks or months after its occurrence. Wildfire can have, in fact, profound effects on the hydrologic response of watersheds, and debris-flow activity is among the most destructive consequences of these effects, often causing extensive damage to human infrastructure. Wildfires are today continuously monitored by several European institutions, and forecasting of the conditions (weather, temperature, wind, etc.) more likely conducive to their occurrence is often available in real time. On the other hand, not much is known about the processes that occur as a consequence of the fire, including erosion and debris flows. These are often underestimated, and become object of study only after some catastrophic event has occurred. This is in strong contrast with all the established techniques of risk mitigation; as a result, no prevention action is generally considered, and the society relies only on the emergency phase following a disaster. Aimed at contributing to gather information about the occurrence of erosional and debris-flow activity in recently burned Mediterranean areas, and at making available these information to land planners and scientists, a specific database has been compiled and presented in this contribution. To date, scientific literature on the topic in Europe has never been catalogued, and was dispersed in a number of different journals and in conference proceedings. The database derives from critical analysis of the existing literature, integrated by case studies directly studied by the authors. Studies on recently burned areas in the Mediterranean basin are most frequently carried out on small experimental plots, often with simulated rainfall A problem of scale therefore exists when trying to extrapolate the erosion rates (also reported as sediment yields or as sediment losses) from these studies to a watershed scale. Very few articles, on the other hand, were found that document the watershed-scale response of basins to rainfall-induced erosion and debris flows following wildfires. The few reported cases of debris flows in the Mediterranean Basin describe erosion of sediment from the hillslopes and the channels (sometimes down to bedrock), and, for a limited number of sites, failure of discrete landslides. This information indicates that debris-flow generation from recently burned areas in the Mediterranean basin appears to occur primarily through sediment bulking processes. Nevertheless, the database so far compiled shows a distribution of post-fire erosion and debris flows in the western Mediterranean basin (Spain, essentially, but also Portugal), followed by the eastern Mediterranean area (Israel), and then by France, Italy and Greece. Even though still in a preliminary version, that needs to be integrated and updated from further sources, our data compilation allows for the unique opportunity to examine issues related to the generation of post-wildfire debris flows across a variety of environments and under a variety of conditions, and to move from a qualitative conception of the controls on post-fire debris-flow generation to the definition of specific conditions that result in their occurrence. Future activities of the project will include: i) updating and integration of the preliminary version of the database; ii) development of models that can be used to identify the probability of debris-flow occurrence and the magnitude of the event for pre- and post-fire hazard assessment in Mediterranean climates; iii) definition of rainfall thresholds for post-fire debris-flow events in Mediterranean climates, as a tool to provide guidance for preliminary warning systems.

Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

Treesearch

R Barbero; J T Abatzoglou; E A Steel

2014-01-01

Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ¡­60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric...

Influence of fire on dead woody material in forests of California and southwestern Oregon

Treesearch

Carl N. Skinner

2002-01-01

The frequent occurrence of fire in most forested areas of California and southwestern Oregon before this century has been well established. Likewise, the importance of dead woody material to various wildlife species as snags and downed logs has been well documented. It is unlikely that much large woody material survived fire long enough to decompose fully in fire...

Comparison of Available Technologies for Fire Spots Detection via Linear Heat Detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miksa, František; Nemlaha, Eduard

2016-12-01

It is very demanding to detect fire spots under difficult conditions with high occurrence of interfering external factors such as large distances, airflow difficultly, high dustiness, high humidity, etc. Spot fire sensors do not meet the requirements due to the aforementioned conditions as well as large distances. Therefore, the detection of a fire spot via linear heat sensing cables is utilized.

Fire's importance in South Central U.S. forests: distribution of fire evidence

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis; Thomas V. Skinner

1991-01-01

Evidence of past fire occurrence is estimated to occur on 26 percent of the 87.2 million acres of forests in Alabama, Arkansas, southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, east Oklahoma, Tennessee, and east Texas.Data are drawn from a systematic survey of fire evidence conducted in conjunction with recent inventories of private and public forested areas in the South Central U.S....

Frequency of dry east winds over northwest Oregon and southwest Washington.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1957-01-01

There is a close relation between occurrences of severe easterly winds and large forest fires in northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. With the east winds comes the dreaded combination of low humidity and high wind that in the past has whipped small fires into conflagrations such as the Tillamook fire of 1933 and the fire that burned Bandon in 1936. These easterly...

Effects of Climate and Fuels Management on Wildfire Occurrence, Size, Severity and Emissions in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Fites, J. A.; Keyser, A.

2015-12-01

Annual wildfire burned area in federally managed Sierra Nevada forests has increased by more than 10,000 ha per decade since the early 1970s. At the same time, recent years have seen some extremely large fires compared to the historical record, with significant areas of moderate to high severity fire (e.g., McNally 2002, Rim 2013, King 2014 fires). Changes to fuels and fire regimes due to fire suppression and land use, as well as warming temperatures and the occurrence of drought, are thought to be significant factors contributing to increased risks of large, severe fires in Sierra Nevada forests. Over 70% of the vegetated area in federally managed forests in the Sierra Nevada is classified as having altered fuels and fire regimes, while average annual temperature in the Sierra Nevada has been above the long term mean for all but four years in the past two decades. As climate is expected to continue warming for decades to come, we explored fuels management scenarios as the primary tools available to modify risks of large, severe wildfires. We developed experimental statistical models of fire occurrence, fire size, and high severity burned area, to explore the interaction between climate and altered fuels conditions. These models were applied to historical climate conditions, a sample of future climate projections, and to both current fuels conditions and a range of scenarios for fuels treatments. Emissions from wildfires were estimated using the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Our models project that average annual burned area in the Sierra Nevada will more than double by mid-century. Similarly, particulate and other pollution emissions from Sierra Nevada wildfires are projected to more than double, even if future fire severity does not change. Fuels treatment scenarios significantly reduced simulated future burned area and emissions below untreated projections. High severity burned area responded to both climate and fuels treatments. A sensitivity analysis indicated that in areas where the fraction of highly altered fuels is high, successfully restoring fuels to prehistoric conditions could more than compensate for expected climate change effects on fire severity by mid-century.

Interplay between Amazonia Tropical Rain Forest Fires (Mesoscale distribution) and global carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordeiro, R. C.; Turcq, B.; Sifeddine, A.

2009-12-01

Soil samples were collected at 9 different depths, from zero to 100 cm at six points distributed along a transect of 1700 m in upland and lowland areas of the Km 41 reserve near Manaus in Central Brazilian Amazonia, in order to compare the frequency, dimension and extension of past fires in different topographic environmental situations. The average charcoal mass distribution is higher in uplands than in lowlands. This distribution shows a gradient with a high correlation between the two topographic levels, demonstrating a characteristic depth distribution pattern. The highest charcoal concentrations were found at a depth of 20-50 cm in all the six profiles. These fires have affected the upland areas more severely than the lowlands, probably allowing the survival of the vegetation along the small streams.. Two periods of intense fire activity were identified through the distribution of the biomass of charcoal: from around 1320 cal yr BP (ca 1400 14C yr BP) to 1050 cal yr BP (ca 1100 14C yr BP), and between 610 cal yr BP (ca 600 14C yr BP) to 330 cal yr BP (ca 300 yr 14C yr BP). These forest fire phases were probably favored by dry climate which is recorded in other regions of Amazonia and South America by archaeological and palaeoecological data.. Observe that the data found in this article related to the disturbances of fire events in the Central Amazon region appear to be synchronous with events of disruption of populations and vegetation changes and background to the development of indigenous people. Thus it seems plausible that these disturbance phenomena may have an origin presumably climatic than anthropogenic. This possible relationship between climate and forest, ecosystems of high productivity and biomass, and humans should be look carefully in relation to the carbon cycle dynamics demonstrated by the air bubbles extracted of the ice core records.. Increase is observed in the CO2 concentration of the Taylor Dome record just after the increase in frequency and biomass burning at 1350 cal yr BP. The maximum increase of CO2, during the Holocene, is higher at 1220 cal yr BP almost simultaneously with the highest frequency of occurrence of charcoal/biomass of charcoal between 1350 and 1100 cal yr BP. Based on the present-day and future trend of drier climate and more irregular precipitation in this region, the frequency of Amazonian rainforest fires tend to increase and to may have an impact on the CO2 future global cycle.

Relation between the National Fire Danger spread component and fire activity in the Lake States.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; William A. Main; Von J. Johnson

1970-01-01

Relationships between the 1964 version of the spread component of the National Fire Danger Rating System and fire activity were established for Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The measures of fire activity included the probability of a fire-day as well as a C, D, or E fire-day, number of fires per fire-day, and acres burned per fire. These measures were examined by...

Urban Sprawl and Wildfire Danger along the Wildland-Urban Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nghiem, S. V.; Kafatos, M.; Myoung, B.

2015-12-01

Urban sprawl has created an extensive wildland-urban interface (WUI) where urban areas encroach well into the wilderness that is highly susceptible to wildfire danger. To monitor urbanization along WUI, an innovative approach based on the Dense Sampling Method with the Rosette Transform (DSM-RT) enables the use of satellite scatterometer data to obtain observations without gaps in time and in space at 1-km posting in the decade of the 2000s. To explain how the satellite signature processed with DSM-RT represents physical urban infrastructures, the case of the mega city of Los Angeles is presented with the DSM-RT satellite image overlaid on three-dimensional buildings and road network from the commercial and industrial core of the city to the residential suburb extended into the wild land. Then the rate of urban development in the 2000s in terms of physical urban infrastructure change, rather than the arbitrary boundary defined by administrative or legislative measures, for 14 cities along the San Gabriel Mountains in California are evaluated to rank the degree of urbanization along the local WUI, which may increase the probability of fire ignitions and fire impacts. Moreover, the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from the MODIS Aqua satellite is used to estimate live fuel moisture (LFM) conditions around the WUI to evaluate fire danger levels, which are consistent to the specific definition currently used by fire agencies in making real-life decisions for fire preparedness pro-actively before the fire occurrence. As an example, a map of EVI-derived LFM for the Colby Fire in 2014 showing a complex spatial pattern of LFM reduction along an extensive WUI illustrates satellite advantage in monitoring LFM over the vast wild land in Southern California. Since the method is based on global satellite data, it is applicable to regions prone to wildfires across the world.

Implications of fire management on cultural resources [Chapter 9

Treesearch

Rebecca S. Timmons; Leonard deBano; Kevin C. Ryan

2012-01-01

Previous chapters in this synthesis have identified the important fuel, weather, and fire relationships associated with damage to cultural resources (CR). They have also identified the types of effects commonly encountered in various fire situations and provided some guidance on how to recognize damages and minimize their occurrence. This chapter describes planning...

Improving Freight Fire Safety: Analysis and Testing of Real Engine Conditions to Progress Development of Mist-controlling Additives for Fire Mitigation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-01

The formation of a fuel mist resulting from high shear stresses acting on the fuel during violent sloshing and tank rupture under the energy of a crash severely increases the occurrence and intensity of fires in transportation related accidents. In o...

Progress towards a lightning ignition model for the Northern Rockies

Treesearch

Paul Sopko; Don Latham

2010-01-01

We are in the process of constructing a lightning ignition model specific to the Northern Rockies using fire occurrence, lightning strike, ecoregion, and historical weather, NFDRS (National Fire Danger Rating System), lightning efficiency and lightning "possibility" data. Daily grids for each of these categories were reconstructed for the 2003 fire season (...

Wildland fire emissions, carbon and climate: Characterizing wildland fuels

Treesearch

David R. Weise; Clinton S. Wright

2013-01-01

Smoke from biomass fires makes up a substantial portion of global greenhouse gas, aerosol, and black carbon (GHG/A/BC) emissions. Understanding how fuel characteristics and conditions affect fire occurrence and extent, combustion dynamics, and fuel consumption is critical for making accurate, reliable estimates of emissions production at local, regional, national, and...

Fire Safety Technician

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Pam

2007-01-01

Fire protection is one of the most important considerations in the construction and operation of industrial plants and commercial buildings. Fire insurance rates are determined by fire probability factors, such as the type of construction, ease of transporting personnel, and the quality and quantity of fire protection equipment available. Because…

Spatial distribution of temporal dynamics in anthropogenic fires in miombo savanna woodlands of Tanzania.

PubMed

Tarimo, Beatrice; Dick, Øystein B; Gobakken, Terje; Totland, Ørjan

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic uses of fire play a key role in regulating fire regimes in African savannas. These fires contribute the highest proportion of the globally burned area, substantial biomass burning emissions and threaten maintenance and enhancement of carbon stocks. An understanding of fire regimes at local scales is required for the estimation and prediction of the contribution of these fires to the global carbon cycle and for fire management. We assessed the spatio-temporal distribution of fires in miombo woodlands of Tanzania, utilizing the MODIS active fire product and Landsat satellite images for the past ~40 years. Our results show that up to 50.6% of the woodland area is affected by fire each year. An early and a late dry season peak in wetter and drier miombo, respectively, characterize the annual fire season. Wetter miombo areas have higher fire activity within a shorter annual fire season and have shorter return intervals. The fire regime is characterized by small-sized fires, with a higher ratio of small than large burned areas in the frequency-size distribution (β = 2.16 ± 0.04). Large-sized fires are rare, and occur more frequently in drier than in wetter miombo. Both fire prevalence and burned extents have decreased in the past decade. At a large scale, more than half of the woodland area has less than 2 years of fire return intervals, which prevent the occurrence of large intense fires. The sizes of fires, season of burning and spatial extent of occurrence are generally consistent across time, at the scale of the current analysis. Where traditional use of fire is restricted, a reassessment of fire management strategies may be required, if sustainability of tree cover is a priority. In such cases, there is a need to combine traditional and contemporary fire management practices.

Vector-borne diseases on Fire Island, New York (Fire Island National Seashore Science Synthesis Paper)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.

2005-01-01

This paper discusses eleven tick-borne and five mosquito-borne pathogens that are known to occur at FIlS, or could potentially occur. The potential for future occurrence, and ecological factors that influence occurrence, are assessed for each disease. Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease on Fire Island. The Lyme spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, is endemic in local tick and wildlife populations. Public education, personal precautions against tick bite, and prompt treatment of early-stage infections can help manage the risk of Lyme disease on Fire Island. The pathogens that cause Human Monocytic Ehrlichiosis and Tularemia have been isolated from ticks or wildlife on Fire Island, and conditions suggest that other tickborne diseases (including Babesiosis, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, and Human Granulocytic Ehrlichiosis) might also occur, but these are far less common than Lyme disease, if present. West Nile Virus (WNV) is the primary mosquito- borne human pathogen that is known to occur on Fire Island. Ecological conditions and recent epizootiological events suggest that WNV occurs in foci that can shift from year to year. Therefore, a surveillance program with appropriate responses to increasing epizootic activity can help manage the risk of WNV transmission on Fire Island.

Monthly fire behavior patterns

Treesearch

Mark J. Schroeder; Craig C. Chandler

1966-01-01

From tabulated frequency distributions of fire danger indexes for a nationwide network of 89 stations, the probabilities of four types of fire behavior ranging from 'fire out' to 'critical' were calculated for each month and are shown in map form.

Assessing the Impact of Fires on Air Quality in the Southeastern U.S. with a Unified Prescribed Burning Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Menendez, F.; Afrin, S.

2017-12-01

Prescribed fires are used extensively across the Southeastern United States and are a major source of air pollutant emissions in the region. These land management projects can adversely impact local and regional air quality. However, the emissions and air pollution impacts of prescribed fires remain largely uncertain. Satellite data, commonly used to estimate fire emissions, is often unable to detect the low-intensity, short-lived prescribed fires characteristic of the region. Additionally, existing ground-based prescribed burn records are incomplete, inconsistent and scattered. Here we present a new unified database of prescribed fire occurrence and characteristics developed from systemized digital burn permit records collected from public and private land management organizations in the Southeast. This bottom-up fire database is used to analyze the correlation between high PM2.5 concentrations measured by monitoring networks in southern states and prescribed fire occurrence at varying spatial and temporal scales. We show significant associations between ground-based records of prescribed fire activity and the observational air quality record at numerous sites by applying regression analysis and controlling confounding effects of meteorology. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the response of measured PM2.5 concentrations to prescribed fire estimates based on burning permits is significantly stronger than their response to satellite fire observations from MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) and geostationary satellites or prescribed fire emissions data in the National Emissions Inventory. These results show the importance of bottom-up smoke emissions estimates and reflect the need for improved ground-based fire data to advance air quality impacts assessments focused on prescribed burning.

Temporal and spatial patterns in fire occurrence during the establishment of mixed-oak forests in eastern North America

Treesearch

Ryan W. McEwan; Todd F. Hutchinson; Robert P. Long; Robert D. Ford; Brian C. McCarthy

2007-01-01

What was the role of fire during the establishment of the current overstory (ca. 1870-1940) in mixed-oak forests of eastern North America? Nine sites representing a 240-km latitudinal gradient on the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus of eastern North America. Basal cross-sections were collected from 225 trees. Samples were surfaced, and fire scars were dated. Fire...

Spatial patterns in vegetation fires in the Indian region.

PubMed

Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad; Badarinath, K V S; Anuradha, Eaturu

2008-12-01

In this study, we used fire count datasets derived from Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) satellite to characterize spatial patterns in fire occurrences across highly diverse geographical, vegetation and topographic gradients in the Indian region. For characterizing the spatial patterns of fire occurrences, observed fire point patterns were tested against the hypothesis of a complete spatial random (CSR) pattern using three different techniques, the quadrat analysis, nearest neighbor analysis and Ripley's K function. Hierarchical nearest neighboring technique was used to depict the 'hotspots' of fire incidents. Of the different states, highest fire counts were recorded in Madhya Pradesh (14.77%) followed by Gujarat (10.86%), Maharastra (9.92%), Mizoram (7.66%), Jharkhand (6.41%), etc. With respect to the vegetation categories, highest number of fires were recorded in agricultural regions (40.26%) followed by tropical moist deciduous vegetation (12.72), dry deciduous vegetation (11.40%), abandoned slash and burn secondary forests (9.04%), tropical montane forests (8.07%) followed by others. Analysis of fire counts based on elevation and slope range suggested that maximum number of fires occurred in low and medium elevation types and in very low to low-slope categories. Results from three different spatial techniques for spatial pattern suggested clustered pattern in fire events compared to CSR. Most importantly, results from Ripley's K statistic suggested that fire events are highly clustered at a lag-distance of 125 miles. Hierarchical nearest neighboring clustering technique identified significant clusters of fire 'hotspots' in different states in northeast and central India. The implications of these results in fire management and mitigation were discussed. Also, this study highlights the potential of spatial point pattern statistics in environmental monitoring and assessment studies with special reference to fire events in the Indian region.

Assessing fire risk in Portugal during the summer fire season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dacamara, C. C.; Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.

2009-04-01

Since 1998, Instituto de Meteorologia, the Portuguese Weather Service has relied on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System (van Wagner, 1987) to produce daily forecasts of fire risk. The FWI System consists of six components that account for the effects of fuel moisture and wind on fire behavior. The first three components, i.e. the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and the Drought Code (DC) respectively rate the average moisture content of surface litter, decomposing litter, and organic (humus) layers of the soil. Wind effects are then added to FFMC leading to the Initial Spread Index (ISI) that rates fire spread. The remaining two fuel moisture codes (DMC and DC) are in turn combined to produce the Buildup Index (BUI) that is a rating of the total amount of fuel available for combustion. BUI is finally combined with ISI to produce the Fire Weather Index (FWI) that represents the rate of fire intensity. Classes of fire danger and levels of preparedness are commonly defined on an empirical way for a given region by calibrating the FWI System against wildfire activity as defined by the recorded number of events and by the observed burned area over a given period of time (Bovio and Camia, 1998). It is also a well established fact that distributions of burned areas are heavily skewed to the right and tend to follow distributions of the exponential-type (Cumming, 2001). Based on the described context, a new procedure is presented for calibrating the FWI System during the summer fire season in Portugal. Two datasets were used covering a 28-year period (1980-2007); i) the official Portuguese wildfire database which contains detailed information on fire events occurred in the 18 districts of Continental Portugal and ii) daily values of the six components of the FWI System as derived from reanalyses (Uppala et al., 2005) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Calibration of the FWI System is then performed in two steps; 1) a truncated Weibull distribution is fitted to the sample of burned areas and 2) the quality of the fitted statistical model is improved by incorporating components of the FWI System as covariates. Obtained model allows estimating on a daily basis the probability of occurrence of fires larger than a given threshold as well as producing maps of fire risk. Results as obtained from a prototype currently being developed will be presented and discussed. In particular, it will be shown that results provide additional evidence of the known fact that the extent of burned area in Portugal is controlled by two main atmospheric factors (Pereira et al. 2005): i) a long-term control related to the regime of temperature and precipitation in spring and ii) a short-term control exerted by the occurrence of very intense dry spells in days of extreme synoptic situations. Bovio, G., and A. Camia. 1998. An analysis of large forest fire danger conditions in Europe. In Proc. 3rd Int. Conf. on Forest Fire Research & 14th Conf. on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Viegas, D.X. (Ed.), Luso, 16-20 Nov., ADAI, 975-994. Cumming, S.G., 2001. Parametric models of the fire size distribution. Can J. For. Res., 31, 1297-1303. Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C. and Leite, S.M., 2005. Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agr. and For. Meteorol., 129 (1-2), 11-25. Uppala, S.M. et al., 2005: The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961-3012. Van Wagner, C.E., 1987. Development and structure of the Canadian forest fire weather index system. Canadian Forestry Service, Forest Technical Report 35, Ottawa, 37 pp.

Landscape Scale Influences of Forest Area and Housing Density on House Loss in the 2009 Victorian Bushfires

PubMed Central

Price, Owen; Bradstock, Ross

2013-01-01

Previous investigations into the factors associated with house loss in wildfires have focused on the house construction and its immediate environment (e.g. gardens). Here, we examine how nearby native forest and other houses can influence house loss. Specifically, we used a sample of 3500 houses affected by the Victorian bushfires of February 7th 2009 to explore how the amount of forest, proportion of forest burned by crown fire and the number of nearby houses affected house loss and how far from the house this influence was exerted. These fires were the most destructive in Australian history and so represent the extreme of fire risk. Using generalized linear modeling we found that the probability of house loss increased with forest extent and the proportion burnt by crown fire and this relationship was strongest for forest measured 1 km from the houses. Houses were more likely to be destroyed if there were other houses within 50 m and if they were on a slope. A model containing these variables predicted house loss with 72% accuracy. Our findings have three important implications: i) management to change the occurrence of crown fire will be effective in reducing house loss; ii) this management may be required up to 1 km away from houses in some situations (a much larger zone than is currently used); iii) high density of houses may increase risk of loss. Given the potentially large width of this management zone and the hazard from nearby houses, it may be more sensible to concentrate on modification of buildings to reduce their vulnerability. PMID:24009753

Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards: a prewildfire evaluation for the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas, central New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne C.; Haas, Jessica R.; Miller, Lara W.; Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P.

2014-01-01

Wildfire can drastically increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although there is no way to know the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire, or the subsequent rainfall intensity and duration before it happens, probabilities of fire and debris-flow occurrence for different locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling efforts. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious, potential, debris-flow hazards in the event of a large-scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in the unburned Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debris-flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. The locations of the greatest debris-flow hazards correlate with the areas of steepest slopes and simulated crown-fire behavior. The four subbasins with the highest computed debris-flow probabilities (greater than 98 percent) were all in the Manzano Mountains, two flowing east and two flowing west. Volumes in sixteen subbasins were greater than 50,000 square meters and most of these were in the central Manzanos and the western facing slopes of the Sandias. Five subbasins on the west-facing slopes of the Sandia Mountains, four of which have downstream reaches that lead into the outskirts of the City of Albuquerque, are among subbasins in the 98th percentile of integrated relative debris-flow hazard rankings. The bulk of the remaining subbasins in the 98th percentile of integrated relative debris-flow hazard rankings are located along the highest and steepest slopes of the Manzano Mountains. One of the subbasins is several miles upstream from the community of Tajique and another is several miles upstream from the community of Manzano, both on the eastern slopes of the Manzano Mountains. This prewildfire assessment approach is valuable to resource managers because the analysis of the debris-flow threat is made before a wildfire occurs, which facilitates prewildfire management, planning, and mitigation. In northern New Mexico, widespread watershed restoration efforts are being carried out to safeguard vital watersheds against the threat of catastrophic wildfire. This study was initiated to help select ideal locations for the restoration efforts that could have the best return on investment.

Accelerating rejection-based simulation of biochemical reactions with bounded acceptance probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanh, Vo Hong; Priami, Corrado; Zunino, Roberto

2016-06-01

Stochastic simulation of large biochemical reaction networks is often computationally expensive due to the disparate reaction rates and high variability of population of chemical species. An approach to accelerate the simulation is to allow multiple reaction firings before performing update by assuming that reaction propensities are changing of a negligible amount during a time interval. Species with small population in the firings of fast reactions significantly affect both performance and accuracy of this simulation approach. It is even worse when these small population species are involved in a large number of reactions. We present in this paper a new approximate algorithm to cope with this problem. It is based on bounding the acceptance probability of a reaction selected by the exact rejection-based simulation algorithm, which employs propensity bounds of reactions and the rejection-based mechanism to select next reaction firings. The reaction is ensured to be selected to fire with an acceptance rate greater than a predefined probability in which the selection becomes exact if the probability is set to one. Our new algorithm improves the computational cost for selecting the next reaction firing and reduces the updating the propensities of reactions.

Accelerating rejection-based simulation of biochemical reactions with bounded acceptance probability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thanh, Vo Hong, E-mail: vo@cosbi.eu; Priami, Corrado, E-mail: priami@cosbi.eu; Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento

Stochastic simulation of large biochemical reaction networks is often computationally expensive due to the disparate reaction rates and high variability of population of chemical species. An approach to accelerate the simulation is to allow multiple reaction firings before performing update by assuming that reaction propensities are changing of a negligible amount during a time interval. Species with small population in the firings of fast reactions significantly affect both performance and accuracy of this simulation approach. It is even worse when these small population species are involved in a large number of reactions. We present in this paper a new approximatemore » algorithm to cope with this problem. It is based on bounding the acceptance probability of a reaction selected by the exact rejection-based simulation algorithm, which employs propensity bounds of reactions and the rejection-based mechanism to select next reaction firings. The reaction is ensured to be selected to fire with an acceptance rate greater than a predefined probability in which the selection becomes exact if the probability is set to one. Our new algorithm improves the computational cost for selecting the next reaction firing and reduces the updating the propensities of reactions.« less

Spatial probability models of fire in the desert grasslands of the southwestern USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fire is an important driver of ecological processes in semiarid environments; however, the role of fire in desert grasslands of the Southwestern US is controversial and the regional fire distribution is largely unknown. We characterized the spatial distribution of fire in the desert grassland region...

Predicting the occurrence of wildfires with binary structured additive regression models.

PubMed

Ríos-Pena, Laura; Kneib, Thomas; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Marey-Pérez, Manuel

2017-02-01

Wildfires are one of the main environmental problems facing societies today, and in the case of Galicia (north-west Spain), they are the main cause of forest destruction. This paper used binary structured additive regression (STAR) for modelling the occurrence of wildfires in Galicia. Binary STAR models are a recent contribution to the classical logistic regression and binary generalized additive models. Their main advantage lies in their flexibility for modelling non-linear effects, while simultaneously incorporating spatial and temporal variables directly, thereby making it possible to reveal possible relationships among the variables considered. The results showed that the occurrence of wildfires depends on many covariates which display variable behaviour across space and time, and which largely determine the likelihood of ignition of a fire. The joint possibility of working on spatial scales with a resolution of 1 × 1 km cells and mapping predictions in a colour range makes STAR models a useful tool for plotting and predicting wildfire occurrence. Lastly, it will facilitate the development of fire behaviour models, which can be invaluable when it comes to drawing up fire-prevention and firefighting plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing fire emissions from tropical savanna and forests of central Brazil

Treesearch

Philip J. Riggan; James A. Brass; Robert N. Lockwood

1993-01-01

Wildfires in tropical forest and savanna are a strong source of trace gas and particulate emissions to the atmosphere, but estimates of the continental-scale impacts are limited by large uncertainties in the rates of fire occurrence and biomass combustion. Satellite-based remote sensing offers promise for characterizing fire physical properties and impacts on the...

The role of fire in management of watershed responses

Treesearch

Malcolm J. Zwolinski

2000-01-01

Hydrologic responses of watersheds are strongly related to vegetation and soil disturbances. Many of the storage and transfer components of the global hydrologic cycle are altered by the occurrence of fire. The major effect of fire on the hydrologic functioning of watersheds is the removal of vegetation and litter materials that protect the soil surface. Reductions in...

Factors Related to Communication of Forest Fire Prevention Messages, a Study of Selected Rural Communities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griessman, B. Eugene; Bertrand, Alvin L.

Two rural Louisiana communities were selected to evaluate the effectiveness of certain types of communication in preventing man-caused forest fires. The communities were selected on the basis of differences in fire occurrence rates and other factors related to conservation. Questionnaires and personal interviews were utilized to determine views of…

Spatial controls of occurrence and spread of wildfires in the Missouri Ozark Highlands

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley

2008-01-01

Understanding spatial controls on wildfires is important when designing adaptive fire management plans and optimizing fuel treatment locations on a forest landscape. Previous research about this topic focused primarily on spatial controls for fire origin locations alone. Fire spread and behavior were largely overlooked. This paper contrasts the relative importance of...

Black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) response to seasonality and frequency of fire

Treesearch

Felicia D. Archuleta

2014-01-01

Fragmentation of the landscape, habitat loss, and fire suppression, all a result of European settlement and activities, have precipitated both the decline of Black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) populations and the occurrence of fire throughout the Great Plains, including the Shortgrass steppe of northeastern New Mexico. The presence of Black-tailed prairie...

166. ARAIII Fire hose houses (Probably numbered on site as ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

166. ARA-III Fire hose houses (Probably numbered on site as ARA-624). Aerojet-general 880-area/GCRE-701-S-4. Date: February 1958. Ineel index code no. 063-0624-00-013-102695. - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Army Reactors Experimental Area, Scoville, Butte County, ID

Fire in the Amazon: impact of experimental fuel addition on responses of ants and their interactions with myrmecochorous seeds.

PubMed

Paolucci, Lucas N; Maia, Maria L B; Solar, Ricardo R C; Campos, Ricardo I; Schoereder, José H; Andersen, Alan N

2016-10-01

The widespread clearing of tropical forests causes lower tree cover, drier microclimate, and higher and drier fuel loads of forest edges, increasing the risk of fire occurrence and its intensity. We used a manipulative field experiment to investigate the influence of fire and fuel loads on ant communities and their interactions with myrmecochorous seeds in the southern Amazon, a region currently undergoing extreme land-use intensification. Experimental fires and fuel addition were applied to 40 × 40-m plots in six replicated blocks, and ants were sampled between 15 and 30 days after fires in four strata: subterranean, litter, epigaeic, and arboreal. Fire had extensive negative effects on ant communities. Highly specialized cryptobiotic and predator species of the litter layer and epigaeic specialist predators were among the most sensitive, but we did not find evidence of overall biotic homogenization following fire. Fire reduced rates of location and transport of myrmecochorous seeds, and therefore the effectiveness of a key ecosystem service provided by ants, which we attribute to lower ant abundance and increased thermal stress. Experimental fuel addition had only minor effects on attributes of fire severity, and limited effects on ant responses to fire. Our findings indicate that enhanced fuel loads will not decrease ant diversity and ecosystem services through increased fire severity, at least in wetter years. However, higher fuel loads can still have a significant effect on ants from Amazonian rainforests because they increase the risk of fire occurrence, which has a detrimental impact on ant communities and a key ecosystem service they provide.

Cerebellar output controls generalized spike‐and‐wave discharge occurrence

PubMed Central

Kros, Lieke; Eelkman Rooda, Oscar H. J.; Spanke, Jochen K.; Alva, Parimala; van Dongen, Marijn N.; Karapatis, Athanasios; Tolner, Else A.; Strydis, Christos; Davey, Neil; Winkelman, Beerend H. J.; Negrello, Mario; Serdijn, Wouter A.; Steuber, Volker; van den Maagdenberg, Arn M. J. M.; De Zeeuw, Chris I.

2015-01-01

Objective Disrupting thalamocortical activity patterns has proven to be a promising approach to stop generalized spike‐and‐wave discharges (GSWDs) characteristic of absence seizures. Here, we investigated to what extent modulation of neuronal firing in cerebellar nuclei (CN), which are anatomically in an advantageous position to disrupt cortical oscillations through their innervation of a wide variety of thalamic nuclei, is effective in controlling absence seizures. Methods Two unrelated mouse models of generalized absence seizures were used: the natural mutant tottering, which is characterized by a missense mutation in Cacna1a, and inbred C3H/HeOuJ. While simultaneously recording single CN neuron activity and electrocorticogram in awake animals, we investigated to what extent pharmacologically increased or decreased CN neuron activity could modulate GSWD occurrence as well as short‐lasting, on‐demand CN stimulation could disrupt epileptic seizures. Results We found that a subset of CN neurons show phase‐locked oscillatory firing during GSWDs and that manipulating this activity modulates GSWD occurrence. Inhibiting CN neuron action potential firing by local application of the γ‐aminobutyric acid type A (GABA‐A) agonist muscimol increased GSWD occurrence up to 37‐fold, whereas increasing the frequency and regularity of CN neuron firing with the use of GABA‐A antagonist gabazine decimated its occurrence. A single short‐lasting (30–300 milliseconds) optogenetic stimulation of CN neuron activity abruptly stopped GSWDs, even when applied unilaterally. Using a closed‐loop system, GSWDs were detected and stopped within 500 milliseconds. Interpretation CN neurons are potent modulators of pathological oscillations in thalamocortical network activity during absence seizures, and their potential therapeutic benefit for controlling other types of generalized epilepsies should be evaluated. Ann Neurol 2015;77:1027–1049 PMID:25762286

Occurrence of select perfluoroalkyl substances at U.S. Air Force aqueous film-forming foam release sites other than fire-training areas: Field-validation of critical fate and transport properties.

PubMed

Anderson, R Hunter; Long, G Cornell; Porter, Ronald C; Anderson, Janet K

2016-05-01

The use of aqueous film-forming foam (AFFF) to extinguish hydrocarbon-based fires is recognized as a significant source of environmental poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs). Although the occurrence of select PFASs in soil and groundwater at former fire-training areas (FTAs) at military installations operable since 1970 has been consistently confirmed, studies reporting the occurrence of PFASs at other AFFF-impacted sites (e.g. emergency response locations, AFFF lagoons, hangar-related AFFF storage tanks and pipelines, and fire station testing and maintenance areas) are largely missing from the literature. Further, studies have mostly focused on a single site (i.e., FTAs at military installations) and, thus, lack a comparison of sites with diverse AFFF release history. Therefore, the purpose of this investigation was to evaluate select PFAS occurrence at non-FTA sites on active U.S. Air Force installations with historic AFFF use of varying magnitude. Concentrations of fifteen perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) and perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA), an important PFOS precursor, were measured from several hundred samples among multiple media (i.e., surface soil, subsurface soil, sediment, surface water, and groundwater) collected from forty AFFF-impacted sites across ten installations between March and September 2014, representing one of the most comprehensive datasets on environmental PFAS occurrence to date. Differences in detection frequencies and observed concentrations due to AFFF release volume are presented along with rigorous data analyses that quantitatively demonstrate phase-dependent (i.e., solid-phase vs aqueous-phase) differences in the chemical signature as a function of carbon chain-length and in situ PFOS (and to a slightly lesser extent PFHxS) formation, presumably due to precursor biotransformation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Santa Ana Winds and Fire Regimes of Southern California National Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bendix, J.

2015-12-01

In Southern California, it has long been understood that foehn-type Santa Ana winds are an important factor in the occurrence of large wildfires. Although a variety of anecdotal observations and statistical analyses have confirmed the importance of these winds to wildfire, particularly in the Fall months when Santa Ana winds overlap with dry fuels from summer drought, many of the details of those winds' impacts on fire remain obscure. This paper uses data regarding individual fires from California's Fire and Resource Assessment Program database and a compilation of Santa Ana Wind days (SAW days) published by Abatzoglou et al. in 2013 to assess the relationship of Santa Ana winds to fire occurrence and size in Southern California. The analysis included 474 fires larger than 20 ha (~50 acres).that burned on the four Southern California national forests (Angeles, Cleveland, Los Padres and San Bernardino) between 1948 and 2010. Overall, just 10.3% of the fires started on SAW days, and 14.4% experienced at least one SAW day between start and containment dates. The impact of Santa Ana winds is greater, however, with increasing fire size. For fires > 4000 ha, 18.4% began on SAW days, with 30.4% experiencing at least one SAW day before containment. And 20% of fires > 20000 ha started on SAW days, with 50% including one or more SAW days. Fires beginning on SAW days were larger, with a mean of 6239 ha compared to 2150 ha for fires that began on non-SAW days. Only 2% of the fires that began on SAW days were started by lightning, suggesting that the impact of Santa Ana winds on Southern California fire regimes may be enhanced by humans' role in ignitions.

Climate Change and Mountain Community Fire Management in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

All, J.; Medler, M.; Cole, R. J.; Arques, S.; Schmitt, C. G.

2014-12-01

In the central Andes of Peru, climate change is altering fire risk through changes in local meteorology and fuel loading. Greater moisture and favorable growing conditions are increasing vegetative productivity, which in turn increases fuel loads. This process is accentuated during El Nino events and potentially results in increased fire occurrence and frequency during relatively dry La Nina events. Park officials are concerned about the ramification of the changes on local ecology and tourist use of the resources. However, using a time-series of two different products from the MODIS Terra and Aqua platforms (Active Fire and Burned Area), TRMM 3B43 precipitation data, and Multivariate ENSO Index data we document fire occurrence and extent from 2000 to 2010 and our analysis indicates that fires are burning exclusively during winter months when there are no natural ignition sources. Globally, fire is used in conjunction with grazing to improve the regeneration and yield of grasses. During our interviews, locals claimed to only set fires in the buffer zone outside of the park, but our analysis indicates that the buffer zone rarely burns and that most fires begin within the park and only occasionally move into the buffer zones. Additionally, we determined that although this is small-scale fire activity every year, overall fire is having a very minor effect on local systems. The park service must develop programs to work with local grazing stakeholders to better limit the impacts of fire, while also address the negative perceptions from tourists in the future. In this instance, fire perception and fire reality are not the same and the challenge for resource managers is how to reconcile these two factors in order to more effectively manage the parklands.

Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reese, Gordon; Skagen, Susan K.

2017-01-01

To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random Forests to model probabilities of occurrence and compared the time periods 1981–2010 (hindcast) and 2041–2070 (forecast) in “model space.” Projected changes in shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species-specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long-distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from −0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios.

Cortical network modeling: analytical methods for firing rates and some properties of networks of LIF neurons.

PubMed

Tuckwell, Henry C

2006-01-01

The circuitry of cortical networks involves interacting populations of excitatory (E) and inhibitory (I) neurons whose relationships are now known to a large extent. Inputs to E- and I-cells may have their origins in remote or local cortical areas. We consider a rudimentary model involving E- and I-cells. One of our goals is to test an analytic approach to finding firing rates in neural networks without using a diffusion approximation and to this end we consider in detail networks of excitatory neurons with leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) dynamics. A simple measure of synchronization, denoted by S(q), where q is between 0 and 100 is introduced. Fully connected E-networks have a large tendency to become dominated by synchronously firing groups of cells, except when inputs are relatively weak. We observed random or asynchronous firing in such networks with diverse sets of parameter values. When such firing patterns were found, the analytical approach was often able to accurately predict average neuronal firing rates. We also considered several properties of E-E networks, distinguishing several kinds of firing pattern. Included were those with silences before or after periods of intense activity or with periodic synchronization. We investigated the occurrence of synchronized firing with respect to changes in the internal excitatory postsynaptic potential (EPSP) magnitude in a network of 100 neurons with fixed values of the remaining parameters. When the internal EPSP size was less than a certain value, synchronization was absent. The amount of synchronization then increased slowly as the EPSP amplitude increased until at a particular EPSP size the amount of synchronization abruptly increased, with S(5) attaining the maximum value of 100%. We also found network frequency transfer characteristics for various network sizes and found a linear dependence of firing frequency over wide ranges of the external afferent frequency, with non-linear effects at lower input frequencies. The theory may also be applied to sparsely connected networks, whose firing behaviour was found to change abruptly as the probability of a connection passed through a critical value. The analytical method was also found to be useful for a feed-forward excitatory network and a network of excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

Failure analysis of storage tank component in LNG regasification unit using fault tree analysis method (FTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulyana, Cukup; Muhammad, Fajar; Saad, Aswad H.; Mariah, Riveli, Nowo

2017-03-01

Storage tank component is the most critical component in LNG regasification terminal. It has the risk of failure and accident which impacts to human health and environment. Risk assessment is conducted to detect and reduce the risk of failure in storage tank. The aim of this research is determining and calculating the probability of failure in regasification unit of LNG. In this case, the failure is caused by Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) and jet fire in LNG storage tank component. The failure probability can be determined by using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Besides that, the impact of heat radiation which is generated is calculated. Fault tree for BLEVE and jet fire on storage tank component has been determined and obtained with the value of failure probability for BLEVE of 5.63 × 10-19 and for jet fire of 9.57 × 10-3. The value of failure probability for jet fire is high enough and need to be reduced by customizing PID scheme of regasification LNG unit in pipeline number 1312 and unit 1. The value of failure probability after customization has been obtained of 4.22 × 10-6.

Predicting wildfire occurrence distribution with spatial point process models and its uncertainty assessment: a case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Peter J. Weisberg; Thomas E. Dilts; E. Louise Loudermilk; Robert M. Scheller; Alison Stanton; Carl Skinner

2015-01-01

Strategic fire and fuel management planning benefits from detailed understanding of how wildfire occurrences are distributed spatially under current climate, and from predictive models of future wildfire occurrence given climate change scenarios. In this study, we fitted historical wildfire occurrence data from 1986 to 2009 to a suite of spatial point process (SPP)...

Fire history, related to climate and land use in three southern Appalachian landscapes in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Flatley, William T; Lafon, Charles W; Grissino-Mayer, Henri D; LaForest, Lisa B

2013-09-01

Fire-maintained ecosystems and associated species are becoming increasingly rare in the southern Appalachian Mountains because of fire suppression policies implemented in the early 20th century. Restoration of these communities through prescribed fire has been hindered by a lack of information on historical fire regimes. To characterize past fire regimes, we collected and absolutely dated the tree rings on cross sections from 242 fire-scarred trees at three different sites in the southern Appalachian Mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina. Our objectives were to (1) characterize the historical frequency of fire in southern Appalachian mixed pine-oak forests, (2) assess the impact of interannual climatic variability on the historical occurrence of fire, and (3) determine whether changes in human culture and land use altered the frequency of fire. Results demonstrate that fires burned frequently at all three sites for at least two centuries prior to the implementation of fire suppression and prevention in the early to mid 20th century. Composite mean fire return intervals were 2-4 yr, and point mean fire return intervals were 9-13 yr. Area-wide fires that burned across multiple stands occurred at 6-13-yr intervals. The majority of fires were recorded during the dormant season. Fire occurrence exhibited little relationship with reconstructed annual drought conditions. Also, fire activity did not change markedly during the transition from Native American to Euro-American settlement or during the period of industrial logging at the start of the 20th century. Fire activity declined significantly, however, during the fire suppression period, with a nearly complete absence of fire during recent decades. The characterization of past fire regimes should provide managers with specific targets for restoration of fire-associated communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains. The fire chronologies reported here are among the longest tree-ring reconstructions of fire history compiled for the eastern United States and support the hypothesis that frequent burning has played a long and important role in the development of forests in the southern Appalachian Mountains.

Dynamics, Patterns and Causes of Fires in Northwestern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Armenteras, Dolors; Retana, Javier

2012-01-01

According to recent studies, two widespread droughts occurred in the Amazon basin, one during 2005 and one during 2010. The drought increased the prevalence of climate-driven fires over most of the basin. Given the importance of human-atmosphere-vegetation interactions in tropical rainforests, these events have generated concerns over the vulnerability of this area to climate change. This paper focuses on one of the wettest areas of the basin, Northwestern Amazonia, where the interactions between the climate and fires are much weaker and where little is known about the anthropogenic drivers of fires. We have assessed the response of fires to climate over a ten-year period, and analysed the socio-economic and demographic determinants of fire occurrence. The patterns of fires and climate and their linkages in Northwestern Amazonia differ from the enhanced fire response to climate variation observed in the rest of Amazonia. The highest number of recorded fires in Northwestern Amazonia occurred in 2004 and 2007, and this did not coincide with the periods of extreme drought experienced in Amazonia in 2005 and 2010. Rather, during those years, Northwestern Amazonia experienced a relatively small numbers of fire hotspots. We have shown that fire occurrence correlated well with deforestation and was determined by anthropogenic drivers, mainly small-scale agriculture, cattle ranching (i.e., pastures) and active agricultural frontiers (including illegal crops). Thus, the particular climatic conditions for air convergence and rainfall created by proximity to the Andes, coupled with the presence of one of the most active colonisation fronts in the region, make this region differently affected by the general drought-induced fire patterns experienced by the rest of the Amazon. Moreover, the results suggest that, even in this wet region, humans are able to modify the frequency of fires and impact these historically well preserved forests. PMID:22523580

Dynamics, patterns and causes of fires in Northwestern Amazonia.

PubMed

Armenteras, Dolors; Retana, Javier

2012-01-01

According to recent studies, two widespread droughts occurred in the Amazon basin, one during 2005 and one during 2010. The drought increased the prevalence of climate-driven fires over most of the basin. Given the importance of human-atmosphere-vegetation interactions in tropical rainforests, these events have generated concerns over the vulnerability of this area to climate change. This paper focuses on one of the wettest areas of the basin, Northwestern Amazonia, where the interactions between the climate and fires are much weaker and where little is known about the anthropogenic drivers of fires. We have assessed the response of fires to climate over a ten-year period, and analysed the socio-economic and demographic determinants of fire occurrence. The patterns of fires and climate and their linkages in Northwestern Amazonia differ from the enhanced fire response to climate variation observed in the rest of Amazonia. The highest number of recorded fires in Northwestern Amazonia occurred in 2004 and 2007, and this did not coincide with the periods of extreme drought experienced in Amazonia in 2005 and 2010. Rather, during those years, Northwestern Amazonia experienced a relatively small numbers of fire hotspots. We have shown that fire occurrence correlated well with deforestation and was determined by anthropogenic drivers, mainly small-scale agriculture, cattle ranching (i.e., pastures) and active agricultural frontiers (including illegal crops). Thus, the particular climatic conditions for air convergence and rainfall created by proximity to the Andes, coupled with the presence of one of the most active colonisation fronts in the region, make this region differently affected by the general drought-induced fire patterns experienced by the rest of the Amazon. Moreover, the results suggest that, even in this wet region, humans are able to modify the frequency of fires and impact these historically well preserved forests.

Black swans, power laws, and dragon-kings: Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, wildfires, floods, and SOC models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sachs, M. K.; Yoder, M. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Rundle, J. B.; Malamud, B. D.

2012-05-01

Extreme events that change global society have been characterized as black swans. The frequency-size distributions of many natural phenomena are often well approximated by power-law (fractal) distributions. An important question is whether the probability of extreme events can be estimated by extrapolating the power-law distributions. Events that exceed these extrapolations have been characterized as dragon-kings. In this paper we consider extreme events for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, landslides and floods. We also consider the extreme event behavior of three models that exhibit self-organized criticality (SOC): the slider-block, forest-fire, and sand-pile models. Since extrapolations using power-laws are widely used in probabilistic hazard assessment, the occurrence of dragon-king events have important practical implications.

Rill and gully formation following the 2010 Schultz Fire

Treesearch

Daniel G. Neary; Karen A. Koestner; Ann Youberg; Peter E. Koestner

2011-01-01

The Schultz Fire burned 6,100 ha on the eastern slopes of the San Francisco Peaks across moderate to very steep ponderosa pine and mixed conifer watersheds. There was widespread occurrence of high severity fire, with several watersheds classified as over 50% high severity. This resulted in moderate to severe water repellency in most soils, especially those on steep...

Large-Scale Patterns of Forest Fire Occurrence in the Conterminous United States and Alaska, 2010

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter

2013-01-01

Free-burning fire has been a constant ecological presence on the American landscape, the expression of which has changed as new climates, peoples and land uses have become predominant (Pyne 2010). It is an important ecological mechanism that shapes the distributions of species, maintains the structure and function of fire-prone communities, and is a significant...

Fire Prevention Efforts in the Northwest

Treesearch

A.W. Lindenmuth; J.J. Keetch

1952-01-01

The frequency of forest fires in 13 northeastern states dropped about one-half from 1943 to 1950, exclusive of the fluctuations due to weather. The average downward trend and the annual observations from which the trend is determined are shown graphically in the lower chart on the other side of this page. Each dot on the chart is the ratio of fire occurrence (actual...

Climatic influences on fire regimes in montane forests of the southern Cascades, California, USA

Treesearch

A. H. Taylor; V. Trouet; C. N. Skinner

2008-01-01

he relationship between climate variability and fire extent was examined in montane and upper montane forests in the southern Cascades. Fire occurrence and extent were reconstructed for seven sites and related to measures of reconstructed climate for the period 1700 to 1900. The climate variables included the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), summer temperature (...

Fire history near an historic travel corridor in Ontario

Treesearch

Daniel C. Dey; Richard P. Guyette

1996-01-01

Human beings are one of the most important agents of ecosystem disturbance and have been for millenia (Pyne 1982, 1995). Until recently, fire was the major tool peopel used to alter vegetation to their benefit. The variability in the occurrence and influnce of fire on forested ecosystems over long time periods is often the result of changes in human land use practices...

Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century

Treesearch

Anthony L. Westerling; Monica G. Turner; Erica A. H. Smithwick; William H. Romme; Michael G. Ryan

2011-01-01

Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated...

Fire ecology and bird populations in eastern deciduous forests

Treesearch

Vanessa L. Artman; Todd F. Hutchinson; Jeffrey D. Brawn; Jeffrey D. Brawn

2005-01-01

Eastern deciduous forests are located across the central portion of eastern North America and provide habitat for a wide diversity of bird species. The occurrence of fi re in the region has been associated with the presence of humans for over 10,000 yr. While pre-European fire regimes are poorly understood, fire is widely thought to have promoted and maintained large...

Disentangling legacy effects from environmental filters of postfire assembly of boreal tree assemblages.

PubMed

Brown, Carissa D; Liu, Juxin; Yan, Guohua; Johnstone, Jill F

2015-11-01

Disturbance plays a key role in driving ecological responses by creating opportunities for new ecological communities to assemble and by directly influencing the outcomes of assembly. Legacy effects (such as seed banks) and environmental filters can both influence community assembly, but their effects are impossible to separate with observational data. Here, we used seeding experiments in sites covering a broad range of postdisturbance conditions to tease apart the effects of seed availability, environmental factors, and disturbance characteristics on early community assembly after fire. We added seed of four common boreal trees to experimental plots in 55 replicate sites in recently burned areas of black spruce forest in northwestern North America. Seed addition treatments increased the probability of occurrence for all species, indicating a widespread potential for seed limitation to affect patterns of recruitment after fire. Small-seeded. species (aspen and birch) were most sensitive to environmental factors such as soil moisture and organic layer depth, suggesting a role for niche-based environmental filtering in community assembly. Fire characteristics related to severity and frequency were also important drivers of seedling regeneration, indicating the potential for disturbance to mediate environmental filters and legacy effects on seed availability. Because effects of seed availability are typically impossible to disentangle from environmental constraints on recruitment in observational studies, legacy effects contingent on vegetation history may be misinterpreted as being driven by strong environmental filters. Results from the seeding experiments suggest that vegetation legacies affecting seed availability play a pivotal role in shaping patterns of community assembly after fire in these low-diversity boreal forests.

Risk-based Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Issacci, F.; Paulos, T.; Jones, S.; Paxton, K.; Paul, M.

1992-01-01

Viewgraphs on risk-based spacecraft fire safety experiments are presented. Spacecraft fire risk can never be reduced to a zero probability. Probabilistic risk assessment is a tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

Utilizing multi-sensor fire detections to map fires in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howard, Stephen M.; Picotte, Joshua J.; Coan, Michael

2014-01-01

In 2006, the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project began a cooperative effort between the US Forest Service (USFS) and the U.S.Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess burn severity all large fires that have occurred in the United States since 1984. Using Landsat imagery, MTBS is mandated to map wildfire and prescribed fire that meet specific size criteria: greater than 1000 acres in the west and 500 acres in the east, regardless of ownership. Relying mostly on federal and state fire occurrence records, over 15,300 individual fires have been mapped. While mapping recorded fires, an additional 2,700 “unknown” or undocumented fires were discovered and assessed. It has become apparent that there are perhaps thousands of undocumented fires in the US that are yet to be mapped. Fire occurrence records alone are inadequate if MTBS is to provide a comprehensive accounting of fire across the US. Additionally, the sheer number of fires to assess has overwhelmed current manual procedures. To address these problems, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Applied Sciences Program is helping to fund the efforts of the USGS and its MTBS partners (USFS, National Park Service) to develop, and implement a system to automatically identify fires using satellite data. In near real time, USGS will combine active fire satellite detections from MODIS, AVHRR and GOES satellites with Landsat acquisitions. Newly acquired Landsat imagery will be routinely scanned to identify freshly burned area pixels, derive an initial perimeter and tag the burned area with the satellite date and time of detection. Landsat imagery from the early archive will be scanned to identify undocumented fires. Additional automated fire assessment processes will be developed. The USGS will develop these processes using open source software packages in order to provide freely available tools to local land managers providing them with the capability to assess fires at the local level.

A review of the main driving factors of forest fire ignition over Europe.

PubMed

Ganteaume, Anne; Camia, Andrea; Jappiot, Marielle; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Long-Fournel, Marlène; Lampin, Corinne

2013-03-01

Knowledge of the causes of forest fires, and of the main driving factors of ignition, is an indispensable step towards effective fire prevention policies. This study analyses the factors driving forest fire ignition in the Mediterranean region including the most common human and environmental factors used for modelling in the European context. Fire ignition factors are compared to spatial and temporal variations of fire occurrence in the region, then are compared to results obtained in other areas of the world, with a special focus on North America (US and Canada) where a significant number of studies has been carried out on this topic. The causes of forest fires are varied and their distribution differs among countries, but may also differ spatially and temporally within the same country. In Europe, and especially in the Mediterranean basin, fires are mostly human-caused mainly due arson. The distance to transport networks and the distance to urban or recreation areas are among the most frequently used human factors in modelling exercises and the Wildland-Urban Interface is increasingly taken into account in the modelling of fire occurrence. Depending on the socio-economic context of the region concerned, factors such as the unemployment rate or variables linked to agricultural activity can explain the ignition of intentional and unintentional fires. Regarding environmental factors, those related to weather, fuel and topography are the most significant drivers of ignition of forest fires, especially in Mediterranean-type regions. For both human and lightning-caused fires, there is a geographical gradient of fire ignition, mainly due to variations in climate and fuel composition but also to population density for instance. The timing of fires depends on their causes. In populated areas, the timing of human-caused fires is closely linked to human activities and peaks in the afternoon whereas, in remote areas, the timing of lightning-caused fires is more linked to weather conditions and the season, with most such fires occurring in summer.

A Review of the Main Driving Factors of Forest Fire Ignition Over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganteaume, Anne; Camia, Andrea; Jappiot, Marielle; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Long-Fournel, Marlène; Lampin, Corinne

2013-03-01

Knowledge of the causes of forest fires, and of the main driving factors of ignition, is an indispensable step towards effective fire prevention policies. This study analyses the factors driving forest fire ignition in the Mediterranean region including the most common human and environmental factors used for modelling in the European context. Fire ignition factors are compared to spatial and temporal variations of fire occurrence in the region, then are compared to results obtained in other areas of the world, with a special focus on North America (US and Canada) where a significant number of studies has been carried out on this topic. The causes of forest fires are varied and their distribution differs among countries, but may also differ spatially and temporally within the same country. In Europe, and especially in the Mediterranean basin, fires are mostly human-caused mainly due arson. The distance to transport networks and the distance to urban or recreation areas are among the most frequently used human factors in modelling exercises and the Wildland-Urban Interface is increasingly taken into account in the modelling of fire occurrence. Depending on the socio-economic context of the region concerned, factors such as the unemployment rate or variables linked to agricultural activity can explain the ignition of intentional and unintentional fires. Regarding environmental factors, those related to weather, fuel and topography are the most significant drivers of ignition of forest fires, especially in Mediterranean-type regions. For both human and lightning-caused fires, there is a geographical gradient of fire ignition, mainly due to variations in climate and fuel composition but also to population density for instance. The timing of fires depends on their causes. In populated areas, the timing of human-caused fires is closely linked to human activities and peaks in the afternoon whereas, in remote areas, the timing of lightning-caused fires is more linked to weather conditions and the season, with most such fires occurring in summer.

Utilizing Multi-Sensor Fire Detections to Map Fires in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, S. M.; Picotte, J. J.; Coan, M. J.

2014-11-01

In 2006, the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project began a cooperative effort between the US Forest Service (USFS) and the U.S.Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess burn severity all large fires that have occurred in the United States since 1984. Using Landsat imagery, MTBS is mandated to map wildfire and prescribed fire that meet specific size criteria: greater than 1000 acres in the west and 500 acres in the east, regardless of ownership. Relying mostly on federal and state fire occurrence records, over 15,300 individual fires have been mapped. While mapping recorded fires, an additional 2,700 "unknown" or undocumented fires were discovered and assessed. It has become apparent that there are perhaps thousands of undocumented fires in the US that are yet to be mapped. Fire occurrence records alone are inadequate if MTBS is to provide a comprehensive accounting of fire across the US. Additionally, the sheer number of fires to assess has overwhelmed current manual procedures. To address these problems, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Applied Sciences Program is helping to fund the efforts of the USGS and its MTBS partners (USFS, National Park Service) to develop, and implement a system to automatically identify fires using satellite data. In near real time, USGS will combine active fire satellite detections from MODIS, AVHRR and GOES satellites with Landsat acquisitions. Newly acquired Landsat imagery will be routinely scanned to identify freshly burned area pixels, derive an initial perimeter and tag the burned area with the satellite date and time of detection. Landsat imagery from the early archive will be scanned to identify undocumented fires. Additional automated fire assessment processes will be developed. The USGS will develop these processes using open source software packages in order to provide freely available tools to local land managers providing them with the capability to assess fires at the local level.

German General Officer Casualties in World War II -- Harbinger for U.S. Army General Officer Casualties in Airland Battle

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-12-07

grenades, air attacks, tank fire, snipers, and partisans. Many of these causes, such as air attacks and tank fire, were relatively infrequent occurrences...Tank Fire 5 9 Small Arms Fire 7 13 Grenade 3 5 Air Attack 18 32 Tank Fire 2 4 Partisans 5 9 Sniper 3 5 In World War I personal danger for officers had...accounts of individual demises reflect this increased lethality, and better describe the significant dangers to these senior commanders. 18 AIR ATTACK

Occupancy Fire Record: Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Fire Protection Association, Boston, MA.

The considerations of human safety and preservation of facilities are examined in relation to school fires. Various aspects of planning which would decrease the probability of fires and thereby save life and property are reviewed and include--(1) causes, (2) automatic protection devices, (3) evacuation and fire drills, and (4) construction…

Prescribed burning and wildfire risk in the 1998 fire season in Florida

Treesearch

John M. Pye; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry; Karen L. Abt

2003-01-01

Measures of understory burning activity in and around FIA plots in northeastern Florida were not significantly associated with reduced burning probability in the extreme fire season of 1998. In this unusual year, burn probability was greatest on ordinarily wetter sites, especially baldcypress stands, and positively associated with understory vegetation. Moderate...

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States

Treesearch

Phillip J. van Mantgem; Jonathan C.B. Nesmith; MaryBeth Keifer; Eric E. Knapp; Alan Flint; Lorriane Flint

2013-01-01

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after...

Fire behavior simulation in Mediterranean forests using the minimum travel time algorithm

Treesearch

Kostas Kalabokidis; Palaiologos Palaiologou; Mark A. Finney

2014-01-01

Recent large wildfires in Greece exemplify the need for pre-fire burn probability assessment and possible landscape fire flow estimation to enhance fire planning and resource allocation. The Minimum Travel Time (MTT) algorithm, incorporated as FlamMap's version five module, provide valuable fire behavior functions, while enabling multi-core utilization for the...

Appraising fuels and flammability in western aspen: a prescribed fire guide

Treesearch

James K. Brown; Dennis G. Simmerman

1986-01-01

Describes a method for appraising fuels and fire behavior potential in aspen forests to guide the use of prescribed fire and the preparation of fire prescriptions. Includes an illustrated classification of aspen fuels; appraisals of fireline intensity, rate of spread, adjective ratings for fire behavior and probability of burn success; and evaluations of seasonal...

Assessing post-fire Douglas-fir mortality and Douglas-fir beetle attacks in the northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Sharon Hood; Barbara Bentz; Ken Gibson; Kevin Ryan; Gregg DeNitto

2007-01-01

Douglas-fir has life history traits that greatly enhance resistance to injury from fire, thereby increasing post-fire survival rates. Tools for predicting the probability of tree mortality following fire are important components of both pre-fire planning and post-fire management efforts. Using data from mixed-severity wildfire in Montana and Wyoming, Hood and Bentz (...

MODIS NDVI Response Following Fires in Siberia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranson, K. Jon; Sun, G.; Kovacs, K.; Kharuk, V. I.

2003-01-01

The Siberian boreal forest is considered a carbon sink but may become an important source of carbon dioxide if climatic warming predictions are correct. The forest is continually changing through various disturbance mechanisms such as insects, logging, mineral exploitation, and especially fires. Patterns of disturbance and forest recovery processes are important factors regulating carbon flux in this area. NASA's Terra MODIS provides useful information for assessing location of fires and post fire changes in forests. MODIS fire (MOD14), and NDVI (MOD13) products were used to examine fire occurrence and post fire variability in vegetation cover as indicated by NDVI. Results were interpreted for various post fire outcomes, such as decreased NDVI after fire, no change in NDVI after fire and positive NDVI change after fire. The fire frequency data were also evaluated in terms of proximity to population centers, and transportation networks.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GIS-based probability assessment of natural hazards in forested landscapes of Central and South-Eastern Europe.

PubMed

Lorz, C; Fürst, C; Galic, Z; Matijasic, D; Podrazky, V; Potocic, N; Simoncic, P; Strauch, M; Vacik, H; Makeschin, F

2010-12-01

We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards--windthrow, drought, and forest fire--for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific.

PubMed

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires.

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific

PubMed Central

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires. PMID:25691965

Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards—A prewildfire evaluation for the Jemez Mountains, north-central New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne C.; Haas, Jessica R.

2016-08-11

Wildfire can substantially increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire or subsequent rainfall intensity and duration cannot be known, probabilities of fire and debris‑flow occurrence for given locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious potential debris-flow hazards in the event of a large-scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Jemez Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in both the unburned and previously burned areas of the Jemez Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debris-flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Forest Service.Of the 4,998 subbasins modeled for this study, computed debris-flow probabilities in 671 subbasins were greater than 80 percent in response to the 100-year recurrence interval, 30-minute duration rainfall event. These subbasins ranged in size from 0.01 to 6.57 square kilometers (km2), with an average area of 0.29 km2, and were mostly steep, upstream tributaries to larger channels in the area. Modeled debris-flow volumes in 465 subbasins were greater than 10,000 cubic meters (m3), and 14 of those subbasins had modeled debris‑flow volumes greater than 100,000 m3.The rankings of integrated relative debris-flow hazard indexes for each subbasin were generated by multiplying the individual subbasin values for debris-flow volume, debris‑flow probability, and average burn probability. The subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent typically are large, upland tributaries to canyons and channels primarily in the Upper Rio Grande and Rio Grande-Santa Fe watershed areas. No subbasins in this group have basin areas less than 1.0 km2. Many of these areas already had significant mass‑wasting episodes following the Las Conchas Fire in 2011. Other subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent are scattered throughout the Jemez River watershed area, including some subbasins in the interior of the Valles Caldera. Only a few subbasins in the top integrated hazard index group are in the Rio Chama watershed area.This prewildfire assessment approach is valuable to resource managers because the analysis of the debris-flow threat is made before a wildfire occurs, which facilitates prewildfire management, planning, and mitigation. In north‑central New Mexico, widespread watershed restoration efforts are being done to safeguard vital watersheds against the threat of catastrophic wildfire. This study was designed to help select ideal locations for the restoration efforts that could have the best return on investment.

Chapter 3 - Large-scale patterns of forest fire occurrence in the conterminous United States and Alaska, 2011.

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter

2014-01-01

Free-burning fire has been a constant ecological presence on the American landscape, the expression of which has changed as new climates, peoples, and land uses have become predominant (Pyne 2010). It is an important ecological mechanism that shapes the distributions of species, maintains the structure and function of fire-prone communities, and is a significant...

Using NDVI to assess departure from average greenness and its relation to fire business

Treesearch

Robert E. Burgan; Roberta A. Hartford; Jeffery C. Eidenshink

1996-01-01

A new satellite-derived vegetation greenness map, departure from average, is designed to compare current-year vegetation greenness with average greenness for the same time of year. Live-fuel condition as portrayed on this map, and the calculated 1,000-hour fuel moistures, are compared to fire occurrence and area burned in Montana and Idaho during the 1993 and 1994 fire...

Developing models to predict the number of fire hotspots from an accumulated fuel dryness index by vegetation type and region in Mexico

Treesearch

D. Vega-Nieva; J. Briseño-Reyes; M. Nava-Miranda; E. Calleros-Flores; P. López-Serrano; J. Corral-Rivas; E. Montiel-Antuna; M. Cruz-López; M. Cuahutle; R. Ressl; E. Alvarado-Celestino; A. González-Cabán; E. Jiménez; J. Álvarez-González; A. Ruiz-González; R. Burgan; H. Preisler

2018-01-01

Understanding the linkage between accumulated fuel dryness and temporal fire occurrence risk is key for improving decision-making in forest fire management, especially under growing conditions of vegetation stress associated with climate change. This study addresses the development of models to predict the number of 10-day observed Moderate-Resolution Imaging...

Optimum use of air tankers in initial attack: selection, basing, and transfer rules

Treesearch

Francis E. Greulich; William G. O' Regan

1982-01-01

Fire managers face two interrelated problems in deciding the most efficient use of air tankers: where best to base them, and how best to reallocate them each day in anticipation of fire occurrence. A computerized model based on a mixed integer linear program can help in assigning air tankers throughout the fire season. The model was tested using information from...

Climate drives fire synchrony but local factors control fire regime change in northern Mexico

Treesearch

Larissa L. Yocom Kent; Peter Z. Fulé; Peter M. Brown; Julián Cerano-Paredes; Eladio Cornejo-Oviedo; Citlali Cortés Montaño; Stacy A. Drury; Donald A. Falk; Jed Meunier; Helen M. Poulos; Carl N. Skinner; Scott L. Stephens; José Villanueva-Díaz

2017-01-01

The occurrence of wildfire is influenced by a suite of factors ranging from “top-down” influences (e.g., climate) to “bottom-up” localized influences (e.g., ignitions, fuels, and land use). We carried out the first broad-scale assessment of wildland fire patterns in northern Mexico to assess the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up drivers of fire in a...

Performance of da Vinci Stapler during robotic-assisted right colectomy with intracorporeal anastomosis.

PubMed

Johnson, Craig S; Kassir, Andrew; Marx, Daryl S; Soliman, Mark K

2018-05-30

Applications for surgical staplers continue to grow, due to the increase in minimally invasive surgical approaches, and range from vessel ligation to tissue transection and anastomoses. Complications associated with stapled tissue, such as bleeding or leaks, continue to be a concern for surgeons, as both can be associated with prolonged operative times and can contribute to postoperative morbidity and mortality. The goal of this retrospective study was to evaluate the performance of the da Vinci ® Xi EndoWrist ® Stapler 45 with SmartClamp™ technology during robotic-assisted right colectomy with intracorporeal anastomosis. We reviewed 113 consecutive cases from four medical centers. Preclinical diagnoses were inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) (n = 5), benign bowel disease (n = 77), and malignant bowel disease (n = 31). No anastomotic leaks occurred; one event of anastomotic bleeding (0.88%) resolved without surgical intervention. Overall, there were 643 clamp attempts (5.7 attempts per case), and 570 fires (5.0 fires per case). SmartClamp™ occurrences happened in approximately one out of three cases, with the highest proportion of occurrences in the IBD group (2.0 occurrences per case). The most commonly fired reload was blue (1.5 mm closed height) with 4.1 blue reloads fired per case overall. No incomplete fires occurred during the procedures. The study data demonstrate the performance of the da Vinci Xi EndoWrist ® Stapler 45 as used in right colon resection with intracorporeal anastomosis. The collection and analysis of these data provide surgeons with information related to stapler firings, which were not previously available; as such, this analysis may lead to deductions that are useful for intraoperative decision-making and clinical outcomes.

Temporal Trends of NO2, CO and their Relation to the Fire Occurrences over the Indo-Gangetic Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, A. K.; Kumar, K.

2016-12-01

Air pollution is an environmental issue that has a gigantic impact on human health, and it is a major problem in the densely populated regions throughout the world. Situated in the foothills of the great Himalayas Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is among one of the most densely populated regions of the earth. NO2 and CO are among major air pollutants which affect the air quality of IGP predominantly. In the present study, we studied the temporal trends of NO2, CO and fire count over the IGP region. Further, we investigated the role of the fire occurrences in the ambient NO2 and CO levels. We used MODIS instrument (Aqua satellite), OMI sensor and AIRS instrument data for fire count, Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) tropospheric column and Carbon monoxide (CO) column study respectively. The IGP is divided into three part geographically i.e. Eastern (E-IGP), Central (C-IGP) and Western (W-IGP). A higher columnar CO concentration is observed in the E-IGP whereas NO2 concentration is highest in the W-IGP. A higher NO2 concentration is obtained in winter followed by summer and a minimum in monsoon months throughout the IGP. Columnar CO concentration is higher in the E-IGP and its concentration is maximum in pre-monsoon months and minimum in the monsoon months. Fire pixel count is highest in the W-IGP with peak twice every year i.e. in the April - May and October - November corresponding to the harvest period in the Rabi-Kharif cropping system. We also obtained a significant positive correlation between fire occurrences and columnar NO2 & CO levels over the IGP which shows the biomass burning practices associated with the agriculture influences the NO2 and CO concentration in the atmosphere.

Post-fire hydrologic response in Central Portugal. A four years study at microplot scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, Diana; Malvar, Maruxa; Martins, Martinho; Machado, Ana; Nunes, João; Keizer, Jacob

2014-05-01

Wildfires are a natural phenomenon in regions with a Mediterranean-type climate. However, their present-day widespread occurrence in southern Europe is unprecedented and strongly reflects human activity such as ignition, land-use changes, land abandonment and introduction of highly flammable plantations. Besides wildfires, post-fire management practices such as plowing, terracing, clearcutting and logging should also be considered, since their occurrence is getting increasingly common. And, in a long-term period these practices seem to be executed intercalated with repeated fire occurrences in the same site, sharing the impacts together with fire in an escalated degradational effect. In this sense, the work presented here concerns four years of runoff and erosion data at microplot scale after the wildfire, comparing different land management practices that occurred before the fire. Preliminary results indicate that in four years of monitoring, runoff is constantly higher in plowed sites than in the unplowed ones, with the exception of the first year. Regarding soil losses the plowed plots present always higher sediment rates than the unplowed ones. The comparison between two unplowed sites with different land uses, indicate higher runoff and erosion risk for pine comparatively to the eucalypt ones, however the reduced soil depth in the first can have an important role in these differences. Following these facts, the aim of the present work is to answer the following research questions: i) Do these four years of observations fit with the window of disturbance model presented by Prosser and Williams (1998). or the alternative version by Wittenberg and Inbar (2009)?; ii) Does pre-fire disturbances (wildfire, land use changes and land management practices) still have repercussions after wildfire?; In what sense does four years of intensive monitoring provides that one year couldn't provide?

Trends in fire risk and burned area in Brazil in the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, P.; Bastos, A.; DaCamara, C.; Libonati, R.

2016-12-01

Fire has a significant contribution to the global greenhouse gas emissions and vast ecological and climatic impacts. Worldwide, Brazil is one of the areas most affected by fire, which highly influences the state of the vegetation cover, the ecological diversity of the region and has significant consequences to the global CO2 balance [1]. Hence, with the increasing evidence of human induced climate change, it becomes essential to understand the present and future trends of fire risk in Brazil. Although a large number of fires in Brazil are anthropogenic, it has been shown that the burned area is mainly controlled by meteorological conditions [2], therefore being partially determined by fire risk. In this study we use a fire danger index specifically tailored for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the MFDI developed by INPE, to assess the patterns and trends of fire risk in Brazil. The index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We test the sensitivity of the index to different climate reanalyses and evaluate the trends in fire risk in Brazil during the past four decades for different biomes. We further assess the link between the calculated fire risk and observed fire occurrence and burned area. Finally, we compare the results with fire risk simulated by a regional climate model (RCA4 forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX) in order to evaluate its suitability for future projections of fire risk and burned area. [1] Bowman, D. M. et al. Fire in the earth system. Science, v. 324, p. 481-484, 24 apr. 2009. [2] Libonati, R. et al. An Algorithm for Burned Area Detection in the Brazilian Cerrado Using 4 μm MODIS Imagery. Remote Sensing, v. 7, p. 15782-15803, 2015.

[Investigation on events of bus on fire in 6 years in the mainland of China].

PubMed

Wang, X G; Liu, Y; Cen, Y; Wu, P; Zhou, H L; Han, C M

2016-12-20

Objective: To retrospectively analyze the characteristics of events of bus on fire in 6 years in the mainland of China. Methods: Events of bus on fire happened between January 2009 and December 2014 were retrieved through Baidu search engine, Chinese Journals Full - text Database, and PubMed database in the search strategy with " bus" and " fire" or " arson" as keywords combined with the name of provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities of the mainland of China. The occurrence time, region, cause of fire, casualties of each event were recorded, and the correlative analysis was conducted. Data were processed with Microsoft Excel software. Results: Totally 287 events of bus on fire were retrieved, among which 49 events happened in 2009, 36 events happened in 2010, 35 events happened in 2011, 37 events happened in 2012, and respectively 65 events happened in 2013 and 2014. The events of bus on fire most frequently happened in June and July, respectively 49 and 39 events. Among the distribution of occurrence regions of events of bus on fire, there were 78 events (27.18%) in east China, 52 events (18.12%) in northeast China, 41 events (14.29%) both in north China and south China. Among the causes of events of bus on fire, spontaneous combustion of bus ranked in the first (267 events, accounting for 93.03%), followed by arson (13 events, accounting for 4.53%). Among the 13 events of bus on fire caused by arson, 7 events happened between 16: 00 and 20: 00, and 3 events happened between 8: 00 and 10: 00. Totally 27 events of bus on fire (9.41%) were with casualties, among which 13 events (48.15%) were caused by spontaneous combustion of bus, 10 events (37.04%) were caused by arson, and 4 events (14.81%) were caused by traffic accidents. Arson caused the most severe casualties (at least 88 deaths and 287 injuries), followed by spontaneous combustion of bus (at least 35 deaths and 140 injuries) and traffic accidents (at least 9 deaths and 20 injuries). Conclusions: Events of bus on fire happened more frequently in recent years in the mainland of China, and the frequencies were much higher especially in June and July. Most events were caused by spontaneous combustion of bus, followed by arson. Most of the events of bus on fire caused by arson happened in the morning and evening rush hours of urban traffic, and althouth the occurrence rate was not high, the casualties were most severe.

Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

2008-01-01

Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of southern California. This study demonstrates that logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of debris flows occurring in recently burned landscapes.

Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

PubMed

Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

2015-05-01

The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forest Fire Management: A Comprehensive And Operational Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabrizi, Roberto; Perez, Bruno; Gomez, Antonio

2013-12-01

Remote sensing plays an important role in obtaining rapid and complete information on the occurrence and evolution in space and time of forest fires. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of fire events through Earth Observation data for early warning, crisis monitoring and post-event damage assessment or a synthesis of the fire event, both in a wide spatial range (local to regional) and temporal scale (short to long term). The fire products are stored and distributed by means of a WebGIS and a Geoportal with additional auxiliary geospatial data. These products allow fire managers to perform analysis and decision making in a more comprehensive manner.

Fire danger rating in the United States of America: An evolution since 1916

Treesearch

Colin C. Hardy; Charles E. Hardy

2007-01-01

Fire scientists in the United States began exploring the relationships of fire-danger and hazard with weather, fuel moisture, and ignition probabilities as early as 1916. Many of the relationships identified then persist today in the form of our National Fire-Danger-Rating System. This paper traces the evolution of fire-danger rating in the United States, including...

Managing fire and fuels in a warmer climate

Treesearch

David L. Peterson

2010-01-01

This historical perspective on fire provides a window into the future of fire in the Pacific Northwest. Although fire will always be more common in the interior portion of the region, a warmer climate could bring more fire to the westside of the Cascade Range where summers are typically dry and will probably become drier. If future climate resembles the climate now...

High-severity fire: Evaluating its key drivers and mapping its probability across western US forests

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Lisa M. Holsinger; Matthew H. Panunto; W. Matt Jolly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Gregory K. Dillon

2018-01-01

Wildland fire is a critical process in forests of the western United States (US). Variation in fire behavior, which is heavily influenced by fuel loading, terrain, weather, and vegetation type, leads to heterogeneity in fire severity across landscapes. The relative influence of these factors in driving fire severity, however, is poorly understood. Here, we explore the...

Multi-scale evaluation of the environmental controls on burn probability in a southern Sierra Nevada landscape

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Marc-Andre Parisien; Carol Miller

2011-01-01

We examined the scale-dependent relationship between spatial fire likelihood or burn probability (BP) and some key environmental controls in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Continuous BP estimates were generated using a fire simulation model. The correspondence between BP (dependent variable) and elevation, ignition density, fuels and aspect was evaluated...

Management options for mitigating Nitrogen (N) losses from N-saturated mixed-conifer forests in California

Treesearch

Benjamin S. Gimeno; Fengming Yuan; Mark E. Fenn; Thomas Meixner

2009-01-01

Mixed-conifer forests of southern California are exposed to nitrogen (N) deposition levels that impair carbon (C) and N cycling, enhance forest flammability, increase the risk of fire occurrence and air pollution emissions in fire, and increase nitrate...

The increasing wildfire and post-fire debris-flow threat in western USA, and implications for consequences of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; DeGraff, Jerry

2009-01-01

In southern California and the intermountain west of the USA, debris flows generated from recently-burned basins pose significant hazards. Increases in the frequency and size of wildfires throughout the western USA can be attributed to increases in the number of fire ignitions, fire suppression practices, and climatic influences. Increased urbanization throughout the western USA, combined with the increased wildfire magnitude and frequency, carries with it the increased threat of subsequent debris-flow occurrence. Differences between rainfall thresholds and empirical debris-flow susceptibility models for southern California and the intermountain west indicate a strong influence of climatic and geologic settings on post-fire debris-flow potential. The linkages between wildfires, debris-flow occurrence, and global warming suggests that the experiences in the western United States are highly likely to be duplicated in many other parts of the world, and necessitate hazard assessment tools that are specific to local climates and physiographies.

Fuel models and fire potential from satellite and surface observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burgan, R.E.; Klaver, R.W.; Klarer, J.M.

1998-01-01

A national 1-km resolution fire danger fuel model map was derived through use of previously mapped land cover classes and ecoregions, and extensive ground sample data, then refined through review by fire managers familiar with various portions of the U.S. The fuel model map will be used in the next generation fire danger rating system for the U.S., but it also made possible immediate development of a satellite and ground based fire potential index map. The inputs and algorithm of the fire potential index are presented, along with a case study of the correlation between the fire potential index and fire occurrence in California and Nevada. Application of the fire potential index in the Mediterranean ecosystems of Spain, Chile, and Mexico will be tested.

Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

2014-01-01

Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions.The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments.Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models.

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David R.; Foster, Tammy E.; Carter, Geoffrey M.; Duncan, Brean W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Lyon, James E.

2018-01-01

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Defining fire environment zones in the boreal forests of northeastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhiwei; He, Hong S; Yang, Jian; Liang, Yu

2015-06-15

Fire activity in boreal forests will substantially increase with prolonged growing seasons under a warming climate. This trend poses challenges to managing fires in boreal forest landscapes. A fire environment zone map offers a basis for evaluating these fire-related problems and designing more effective fire management plans to improve the allocation of management resources across a landscape. Toward that goal, we identified three fire environment zones across boreal forest landscapes in northeastern China using analytical methods to identify spatial clustering of the environmental variables of climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity. The three fire environment zones were found to be in strong agreement with the spatial distributions of the historical fire data (occurrence, size, and frequency) for 1966-2005. This paper discusses how the resulting fire environment zone map can be used to guide forest fire management and fire regime prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatially-Explicit Holocene Drought Reconstructions in Amazonian Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMichael, C.; Bush, M. B.

2014-12-01

Climate models predict increasing drought in Amazonian forests over the next century, and the synergy of drought and fire may lead to forest dieback. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are two primary drivers of Amazonian drought, and each process has a spatially distinct manifestation in the Basin. Paleoecological reconstructions can contextualize the forest response to past drought periods. Stalagmite and lake sediment records have documented that the early- to mid-Holocene, i.e. 10,000 - 5000 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), was among the driest periods of the last 100,000 years in western Amazonia. Climatic conditions became wetter and more similar to the modern climate over the last 4000 cal yr BP, and fires rarely occurred in the absence of human activity. Yet there are currently no drought and fire reconstructions that examine the spatially explicit patterns of drought during the Holocene. Here, we present regional drought histories from southwestern and northeastern sections Amazonia for the last 10,000 years that document the drought-fire dynamics resulting from both climatic processes. Our reconstructions were based on a compilation of dated soil charcoal fragments (N= 291) collected from within Amazonia sensu stricto, which were analyzed by region using summed probability analysis. The compiled soil charcoal dates contained limited evidence of fire over the last 10,000 years in some regions. Fire frequency rose markedly across the Basin, however, during the last 2000 years, indicating an increased human presence. Fire probabilities, and thus droughts, had similar increasing trajectories between southwestern and northeastern Amazonia from 1500-1100 cal yr BP, which decoupled from 1100-740 cal yr BP, and then regained synchronicity from 740-500 cal yr BP. Fire probability declined markedly after 500 yr cal BP, coincident with European arrival to the Americas. Native populations were decimated, and fire probabilities returned to similar levels before the rise 2000 years ago. These results suggested that the synergy of humans plus drought have played a large role in historical fire regimes in Amazonian forests for the last 2000 years.

Gaps in Data and Modeling Tools for Understanding Fire and Fire Effects in Tundra Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H.; Miller, M. E.; Loboda, T. V.; Jenkins, L. K.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Suiter, A.; Hawkins, S. M.

2013-12-01

As the ecosystem science community learns more about tundra ecosystems and disturbance in tundra, a review of base data sets and ecological field data for the region shows there are many gaps that need to be filled. In this paper we will review efforts to improve our knowledge of the occurrence and impacts of fire in the North American tundra region completed under a NASA Terrestrial Ecology grant. Our main source of information is remote sensing data from satellite sensors and ecological data from past and recent field data collections by our team, collaborators, and others. Past fire occurrence is not well known for this region compared with other North American biomes. In this presentation we review an effort to use a semi-automated detection algorithm to identify past fire occurrence using the Landsat TM/ETM+ archives, pointing out some of the still-unaddressed issues for a full understanding of fire regime for the region. For this task, fires in Landsat scenes were mapped using the Random Forest classifier (Breiman 2001) to automatically detect potential burn scars. Random Forests is an ensemble classifier that employs machine learning to build a large collection of decision trees that are grown from a random selection of user supplied training data. A pixel's classification is then determined by which class receives the most 'votes' from each tree. We also review the use fire location records and existing modeling methods to quantify emissions from these fires. Based on existing maps of vegetation fuels, we used the approach developed for the Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS; French et al. 2011) to estimate emissions across the tundra region. WFEIS employs the Consume model (http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/research/smoke/consume/index.shtml) to estimate emissions by applying empirically developed relationships between fuels, fire conditions (weather-based fire indexes), and emissions. Here again, we will review the gaps in data and modeling capability for accurate estimation of fire emissions in this region. Initial evaluation of Landsat for tundra fire characterization (Loboda et al. 2013) and successful use of the rich archive of Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery for many fire-disturbed sites in the region will be additional topics covered in this poster presentation. References: Breiman, L. 2001. Random forests. Machine Learning, 45:5-32. French, N.H.F., W.J. de Groot, L.K. Jenkins, B.. Rogers, et al. 2011. Model comparisons for estimating carbon emissions from North American wildland fire. J. Geophys. Res. 116:G00K05, doi:10.1029/2010JG001469. Loboda, T L, N H F French, C. Hight-Harf, L. Jenkins, M.E. Miller. 2013. Mapping fire extent and burn severity in Alaskan tussock tundra: An analysis of the spectral response of tundra vegetation to wildland fire. Remote Sens. Enviro. 134:194-209.

Associating an ionospheric parameter with major earthquake occurrence throughout the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, D.; Midya, S. K.

2014-02-01

With time, ionospheric variation analysis is gaining over lithospheric monitoring in serving precursors for earthquake forecast. The current paper highlights the association of major (Ms ≥ 6.0) and medium (4.0 ≤ Ms < 6.0) earthquake occurrences throughout the world in different ranges of the Ionospheric Earthquake Parameter (IEP) where `Ms' is earthquake magnitude on the Richter scale. From statistical and graphical analyses, it is concluded that the probability of earthquake occurrence is maximum when the defined parameter lies within the range of 0-75 (lower range). In the higher ranges, earthquake occurrence probability gradually decreases. A probable explanation is also suggested.

Role of summer prescribed fire to manage shrub-invaded grasslands

Treesearch

Charles A. Taylor

2007-01-01

Prior to development of the livestock industry, both anthropogenic and natural disturbances (such as prescribed and wild fire) played key roles in shaping the different plant communities across Texas. Historically, fires occurred during all seasons of the year, but summer fires were probably more frequent due to dry conditions combined with increased lightning...

Assessing wildland fire risk transmission to communities in northern Spain

Treesearch

Fermín J. Alcasena; Michele Salis; Alan A. Ager; Rafael Castell; Cristina Vega-García

2017-01-01

We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain). Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306) in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert...

The role of fire in deep time ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Andrew C.; Bond, William J.; Collinson, Margaret E.; Glasspool, Ian J.; Brown, Sarah; Braman, Dennis R.

2010-05-01

Fires are very widespread in the world today and fire has also been common in the deep past. Fire is important in structuring contemporary World vegetation maintaining extensive open vegetation where the climate has the potential to support closed forests. The influence of fire on the structure of vegetation and plant traits present in a community vary depending on the fire regime. The fire regime is the characteristic pattern of fire frequency, severity (amount of biomass removed) and spatial extent. Fire regimes depend on the synergy between external physical factors and the properties of vegetation. Changes in the fire regime can be brought about by changes in external conditions such as climate, but also by changes in vegetation such as changes in flammability or productivity that influence the amount of fuel. For example, invasion of grasses into closed wooded habitats has initiated a ‘grass fire cycle' in many parts of the world triggering cascading changes in vegetation structure and composition from forest to open grassland or savanna woodland. The spread of flammable invasive species, especially grasses, has even altered fire regimes of fire-dependent flammable communities causing catastrophic ecosystem changes. We suggest that the spread of angiosperms in the Cretaceous was promoted by the development of novel fire regimes linked to the evolution of novel, highly productive (and flammable) plants. Within the limits of physical constraints on fire occurrence, Cretaceous angiosperms would have initiated a positive feedback analogous to the grass-fire cycle rapidly accumulating fuel that promoted more frequent fires, which maintained open habitats in which rapid growth-traits of angiosperms would be most favoured promoting rapid fuel accumulation etc. Frequent fires would have altered vegetation structure and composition both by increasing mortality rates of fire-damaged trees and reducing recruitment rates of seedlings and saplings where fires recurred before juveniles had reached "fire-proof" sizes. The effect would be to create more open conditions favouring plants with the angiosperm innovations of high photosynthetic rates, rapid maturation and rapid reproduction relative to gymnosperms. Fire has some analogies to large vertebrate herbivory, particularly in the potential to open forests and create habitat for low-growing sun-loving plants over extensive areas. The role of fire in favouring low-growing ‘ruderal', plants of open habitats is similar to that proposed for dinosaurs. A switch from high-browsing dinosaurs in the Jurassic to low-browsing dinosaurs in the Cretaceous has been noted and it has been argued that the switch in browse height would favour fast-growing angiosperms. The dinosaur hypothesis has recently been tested and found wanting, for example in the timing and coincidence of angiosperm abundance and low vs. high-browsing dinosaurs. Our research of the co-occurrence of dinosaur remains and charcoal assemblages in Dinosaur Provincial Park, Alberta, has suggested that it was a dominance of gymnospermous, woody vegetation that was ravaged by fire. In addition, the co-occurrence of dinosaur remains and charcoal is significant in demonstrating that the some dinosaur bone beds may have formed as a result of extensive post-fire erosion/rapid deposition cycles. In this paper we consider the evidence for and against fire as a major factor promoting vegetation change and angiosperm spread in the Cretaceous.

Airway fires during surgery: Management and prevention.

PubMed

Akhtar, Navaid; Ansar, Farrukh; Baig, Mirza Shahzad; Abbas, Akbar

2016-01-01

Airway fires pose a serious risk to surgical patients. Fires during surgery have been reported for many years with flammable anesthetic agents being the main culprits in the past. Association of airway fires with laser surgery is well-recognized, but there are reports of endotracheal tube fires ignited by electrocautery during pharyngeal surgery or tracheostomy or both. This uncommon complication has potentially grave consequences. While airway fires are relatively uncommon occurrences, they are very serious and can often be fatal. Success in preventing such events requires a thorough understanding of the components leading to a fire (fuel, oxidizer, and ignition source), as well as good communication between all members present to appropriately manage the fire and ensure patient safety. We present a case of fire in the airway during routine adenotonsillectomy. We will review the causes, preventive measures, and brief management for airway fires.

Enclosure fire hazard analysis using relative energy release criteria. [burning rate and combustion control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coulbert, C. D.

1978-01-01

A method for predicting the probable course of fire development in an enclosure is presented. This fire modeling approach uses a graphic plot of five fire development constraints, the relative energy release criteria (RERC), to bound the heat release rates in an enclosure as a function of time. The five RERC are flame spread rate, fuel surface area, ventilation, enclosure volume, and total fuel load. They may be calculated versus time based on the specified or empirical conditions describing the specific enclosure, the fuel type and load, and the ventilation. The calculation of these five criteria, using the common basis of energy release rates versus time, provides a unifying framework for the utilization of available experimental data from all phases of fire development. The plot of these criteria reveals the probable fire development envelope and indicates which fire constraint will be controlling during a criteria time period. Examples of RERC application to fire characterization and control and to hazard analysis are presented along with recommendations for the further development of the concept.

Is the current increase in fire recurrence causing a shift in the soil fertility of Iberian ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayor, Ángeles G.; Keizer, Jan Jacob; González-Pelayo, Óscar; Valdecantos, Alejandro; Vallejo, Ramón; de Ruiter, Peter

2015-04-01

Since the mid of the last century fire recurrence has increased in the Iberian peninsula and the overall Mediterranean basin due to changes in land use and climate. The warmer and drier climate projected for this region will further increase the risk of wildfire occurrence and of increasing fire recurrence. Although the impact of wildfires on soil nutrient content in this region has been extensively studied, still few works have assessed this impact on the basis of fire recurrence. This study assesses the changes in soil nutrient status of two Iberian ecosystems, Várzea (N Portugal) and Valencia (E Spain), affected by different levels of fire recurrence and where short inter-fire periods have promoted a transition from pine woodlands to shrublands. Trends towards soil fertility loss with increasing fire recurrence (one, two, three or four fires in 37 years) were observed in the two study sites. The sites differed when soil fertility of areas burned several times were compared with long unburned references. In Valencia, overall soil fertility of the surface mineral soil was lower in areas burned two or three times than in long unburned areas, twenty and eight years after the last fire, respectively. On the contrary, total organic matter in Várzea was higher in burned than in unburned soils one year after the occurrence of one or four fires. However, a negative impact of fire was observed for integrated indicators of soil quality, such as hot-water carbon and potentially mineralizable nitrogen, suggesting that fire also had an adverse effect on substrate quality in Várzea. Our results suggest that the current trend of increasing fire recurrence in Southern Europe may result in losses or alterations of soil organic matter, particularly when fire promotes a transition from pine woodland to shrubland.

Influences of climate on fire regimes in montane forests of north-western Mexico

Treesearch

Carl N. Skinner; Jack H. Burk; Michael G. Barbour; Ernesto Franco-Vizcaino; Scott L. Stephens

2008-01-01

Aim To identify the influence of interannual and interdecadal climate variation on the occurrence and extent of fires in montane conifer forests of north-western Mexico. Location This study was conducted in Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.)- dominated mixed-conifer...

Comparing fuel reduction treatments for reducing wildfire size and intensity in a boreal forest landscape of northeastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhiwei; He, Hong S; Liu, Zhihua; Liang, Yu

2013-06-01

Fuel load is often used to prioritize stands for fuel reduction treatments. However, wildfire size and intensity are not only related to fuel loads but also to a wide range of other spatially related factors such as topography, weather and human activity. In prioritizing fuel reduction treatments, we propose using burn probability to account for the effects of spatially related factors that can affect wildfire size and intensity. Our burn probability incorporated fuel load, ignition probability, and spread probability (spatial controls to wildfire) at a particular location across a landscape. Our goal was to assess differences in reducing wildfire size and intensity using fuel-load and burn-probability based treatment prioritization approaches. Our study was conducted in a boreal forest in northeastern China. We derived a fuel load map from a stand map and a burn probability map based on historical fire records and potential wildfire spread pattern. The burn probability map was validated using historical records of burned patches. We then simulated 100 ignitions and six fuel reduction treatments to compare fire size and intensity under two approaches of fuel treatment prioritization. We calibrated and validated simulated wildfires against historical wildfire data. Our results showed that fuel reduction treatments based on burn probability were more effective at reducing simulated wildfire size, mean and maximum rate of spread, and mean fire intensity, but less effective at reducing maximum fire intensity across the burned landscape than treatments based on fuel load. Thus, contributions from both fuels and spatially related factors should be considered for each fuel reduction treatment. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high-severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests

Treesearch

Daniel J. Krofcheck; Matthew D. Hurteau; Robert M. Scheller; E. Louise Loudermilk

2017-01-01

In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels...

Fire frequency, area burned, and severity: A quantitative approach to defining a normal fire year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lutz, J.A.; Key, C.H.; Kolden, C.A.; Kane, J.T.; van Wagtendonk, J.W.

2011-01-01

Fire frequency, area burned, and fire severity are important attributes of a fire regime, but few studies have quantified the interrelationships among them in evaluating a fire year. Although area burned is often used to summarize a fire season, burned area may not be well correlated with either the number or ecological effect of fires. Using the Landsat data archive, we examined all 148 wildland fires (prescribed fires and wildfires) >40 ha from 1984 through 2009 for the portion of the Sierra Nevada centered on Yosemite National Park, California, USA. We calculated mean fire frequency and mean annual area burned from a combination of field- and satellite-derived data. We used the continuous probability distribution of the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) values to describe fire severity. For fires >40 ha, fire frequency, annual area burned, and cumulative severity were consistent in only 13 of 26 years (50 %), but all pair-wise comparisons among these fire regime attributes were significant. Borrowing from long-established practice in climate science, we defined "fire normals" to be the 26 year means of fire frequency, annual area burned, and the area under the cumulative probability distribution of dNBR. Fire severity normals were significantly lower when they were aggregated by year compared to aggregation by area. Cumulative severity distributions for each year were best modeled with Weibull functions (all 26 years, r2 ??? 0.99; P < 0.001). Explicit modeling of the cumulative severity distributions may allow more comprehensive modeling of climate-severity and area-severity relationships. Together, the three metrics of number of fires, size of fires, and severity of fires provide land managers with a more comprehensive summary of a given fire year than any single metric.

Future projections of fire danger in Brazilian biomes in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libonati, Renata; Silva, Patrícia; DaCamara, Carlos; Bastos, Ana

2016-04-01

In the global context, Brazil is one of the regions more severely affected by fire occurrences, with important consequences in the global CO2 balance, the state of the Amazon forest and the ecological diversity of the region. Brazil is also one of the few regions experiencing a raise in annual mean temperature above 2.5o during the 20th century, which may further increase between 2o and 7o until 2100 and, likely, be accompanied by a decrease in precipitation [1]. As the fire occurrence and severity largely depends on these two variables, it is worth assessing the evolution of fire danger for the coming decades. In order to obtain a detailed characterization of the future fire patterns in the different biomes of Brazil, we use outputs from a regional-downscaling of the EC-Earth climate model at 0.44 degrees spatial resolution for two future scenarios, an intermediate (RCP4.5) and a more severe (RCP8.5) one. We use a fire danger index specifically developed for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the IFR from INPE. This index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We find a systematic increase of the days with critical fire risk, which is more pronounced in RCP8.5 and mostly affects months when fire activity takes place. Temperature increase is the most determinant factor for the increase in fire danger in the dry regions of savannah and shrubland, a result to be expected as fuel is already very dry. [1] Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Coordination through databases can improve prescribed burning as a conservation tool to promote forest biodiversity.

PubMed

Ramberg, Ellinor; Strengbom, Joachim; Granath, Gustaf

2018-04-01

Prescribed fires are a common nature conservation practice. They are executed by several parties with limited coordination among them, and little consideration for wildfire occurrences and habitat requirements of fire-dependent species. Here, we gathered data on prescribed fires and wildfires in Sweden during 2011-2015 to (i) evaluate the importance and spatial extent of prescribed fires compared to wildfires and (ii) illustrate how a database can be used as a management tool for prescribed fires. We found that on average only 0.006% (prescribed 65%, wildfires 35%) of the Swedish forest burns per year, with 58% of the prescribed fires occurring on clearcuts. Also, both wildfires and prescribed fires seem to be important for the survival of fire-dependent species. A national fire database would simplify coordination and make planning and evaluation of prescribed fires more efficient. We propose an adaptive management strategy to improve the outcome of prescribed fires.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Relative importance of climate and mountain pine beetle outbreaks on the occurrence of large wildfires in the western USA.

PubMed

Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Kulakowski, Dominik

2016-12-01

Extensive outbreaks of bark beetles have killed trees across millions of hectares of forests and woodlands in western North America. These outbreaks have led to spirited scientific, public, and policy debates about consequential increases in fire risk, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where homes and communities are at particular risk from wildfires. At the same time, large wildfires have become more frequent across this region. Widespread expectations that outbreaks increase extent, severity, and/or frequency of wildfires are based partly on visible and dramatic changes in foliar moisture content and other fuel properties following outbreaks, as well as associated modeling projections. A competing explanation is that increasing wildfires are driven primarily by climatic extremes, which are becoming more common with climate change. However, the relative importance of bark beetle outbreaks vs. climate on fire occurrence has not been empirically examined across very large areas and remains poorly understood. The most extensive outbreaks of tree-killing insects across the western United States have been of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae), which have killed trees over >650,000 km 2 , mostly in forests dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta). We show that outbreaks of MPB in lodgepole pine forests of the western United States have been less important than climatic variability for the occurrence of large fires over the past 29 years. In lodgepole pine forests in general, as well as those in the WUI, occurrence of large fires was determined primarily by current and antecedent high temperatures and low precipitation but was unaffected by preceding outbreaks. Trends of increasing co-occurrence of wildfires and outbreaks are due to a common climatic driver rather than interactions between these disturbances. Reducing wildfire risk hinges on addressing the underlying climatic drivers rather than treating beetle-affected forests. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Contributions of ignitions, fuels, and weather to the spatial patterns of burn probability of a boreal landscape

Treesearch

Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Carol Miller; Meg A. Krawchuck; Mark Heathcott; Max A. Moritz

2011-01-01

The spatial pattern of fire observed across boreal landscapes is the outcome of complex interactions among components of the fire environment. We investigated how the naturally occurring patterns of ignitions, fuels, and weather generate spatial pattern of burn probability (BP) in a large and highly fireprone boreal landscape of western Canada, Wood Buffalo National...

A field guide to predict delayed mortality of fire-damaged ponderosa pine: application and validation of the Malheur model.

Treesearch

Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind; Mark Loewen; Greg Brenner

2008-01-01

The Malheur model for fire-caused delayed mortality is presented as an easily interpreted graph (mortality-probability calculator) as part of a one-page field guide that allows the user to determine postfire probability of mortality for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.). Following both prescribed burns and wildfires, managers need...

Reliability of excess-flow check-valves in turbine lubrication systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dundas, R.E.

1996-12-31

Reliability studies on excess-flow check valves installed in a gas turbine lubrication system for prevention of spray fires subsequent to fracture or separation of lube lines were conducted. Fault-tree analyses are presented for the case of failure of a valve to close when called upon by separation of a downstream line, as well as for the case of accidental closure during normal operation, leading to interruption of lubricating oil flow to a bearing. The probabilities of either of these occurrences are evaluated. The results of a statistical analysis of accidental closure of excess-flow check valves in commercial airplanes in themore » period 1986--91 are also given, as well as a summary of reliability studies on the use of these valves in residential gas installations, conducted under the sponsorship of the Gas Research Institute.« less

Vegetation of natural and artificial shorelines in Upper Klamath Basin’s fringe wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Andrew M.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Hamilton, Andy S.

2013-01-01

The Upper Klamath Basin (UKB) in northern California and southern Oregon supports large hypereutrophic lakes surrounded by natural and artificial shorelines. Lake shorelines contain fringe wetlands that provide key ecological services to the people of this region. These wetlands also provide a context for drawing inferences about how differing wetland types and wave exposure contribute to the vegetative assemblages in lake-fringe wetlands. Here, we summarize how elevation profiles and vegetation richness vary as a function of wave exposure and wetland type. Our results show that levee wetland shorelines are 4X steeper and support fewer species than other wetland types. We also summarize the occurrence probability of the five common wetland plant species that represent the overwhelming majority of the diversity of these wetlands. In brief, the occurrence probability of the culturally significant Nuphar lutea spp. polysepala and the invasive Phalaris arundinacea in wave exposed and sheltered sites varies based on wetland type. The occurrence probability for P. arundinacea was greatest in exposed portions of deltaic shorelines, but these trends were reversed on levees where the occurrence probability was greater in sheltered sites. The widespread Schoenoplectus acutus var. acutus occurred throughout all wetland and exposure type combinations but had a higher probability of occurrence in wave exposed sites. Results from this work will add to our current understanding of how wetland shoreline profiles interact with wave exposure to influence the occurrence probability of the dominant vegetative species in UKB’s shoreline wetlands.

Modeling the disturbance of vegetation by fire in the boreal forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crevoisier, C.; Shevliakova, E.; Gloor, M.; Wirth, C.

2006-12-01

Boreal regions are important for the global carbon cycle because it is the largest forested area on earth and there are large belowground carbon pools (~1000 PgC). It is also a region where largest warming trends on the globe over the last decades have been observed and changes of the land ecosystems have already started. A major factor that determines the structure and carbon dynamics of the boreal forest is fire. As fire frequency depends strongly on climate, increased fire occurrence and related losses to the atmosphere are likely, and have already been reported. In order to predict with more confidence the occurrence and effect of fire on forest ecosystems in the boreal region, we have developed a fire model that takes advantage of the large on-ground, remote sensing and climate data from Canada, Alaska and Siberia. This prognostic model estimates the monthly burned area in a grid cell of 2 by 2.5 degrees, from four climate (air temperature, air relative humidity, precipitation and soil water content) and one human-related (road density) variables. Parameters are estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method applied to a dataset of observed burned area for Canada. The model is able to reproduce the seasonality of fire, the interannual variability, as well as the location of fire events, not only for Canada (on which data the model is based), but also for Siberia and Alaska, for which the results compare well with remote sensing observation, and are in the range of various current estimations of burned area. The fire model is being implemented in LM3V, the new vegetation model of GFDL earth system model, in order to make prediction of future fire behavior in boreal regions, and the related disturbance of the vegetation and carbon emissions.

Multiple remote sensing data sources to assess spatio-temporal patterns of fire incidence over Campos Amazônicos Savanna Vegetation Enclave (Brazilian Amazon).

PubMed

Alves, Daniel Borini; Pérez-Cabello, Fernando

2017-12-01

Fire activity plays an important role in the past, present and future of Earth system behavior. Monitoring and assessing spatial and temporal fire dynamics have a fundamental relevance in the understanding of ecological processes and the human impacts on different landscapes and multiple spatial scales. This work analyzes the spatio-temporal distribution of burned areas in one of the biggest savanna vegetation enclaves in the southern Brazilian Amazon, from 2000 to 2016, deriving information from multiple remote sensing data sources (Landsat and MODIS surface reflectance, TRMM pluviometry and Vegetation Continuous Field tree cover layers). A fire scars database with 30 m spatial resolution was generated using a Landsat time series. MODIS daily surface reflectance was used for accurate dating of the fire scars. TRMM pluviometry data were analyzed to dynamically establish time limits of the yearly dry season and burning periods. Burned area extent, frequency and recurrence were quantified comparing the results annually/seasonally. Additionally, Vegetation Continuous Field tree cover layers were used to analyze fire incidence over different types of tree cover domains. In the last seventeen years, 1.03millionha were burned within the study area, distributed across 1432 fire occurrences, highlighting 2005, 2010 and 2014 as the most affected years. Middle dry season fires represent 86.21% of the total burned areas and 32.05% of fire occurrences, affecting larger amount of higher density tree surfaces than other burning periods. The results provide new insights into the analysis of burned areas of the neotropical savannas, spatially and statistically reinforcing important aspects linked to the seasonality patterns of fire incidence in this landscape. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

THE POTENTIAL APPLICATION OF FIRESAT DATA TO ASSESSMENT OF HUMAN EXPOSURES TO WILDFIRE EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

FireSat is a proposed NASA mission that will obtain global coverage of the occurrence of wildfires. The specifications for FireSat are described in detail by Levine et al., (1991). Because of limitations of instruments (designed for other purposes) in existing satellites, new in...

Potential climate change impacts on fire weather in the United States

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Ying Tang; Lifeng Luo; Shiyuan Zhong; Julie Winkler; Xindi. Bian

2015-01-01

Researchers at Michigan State University and the Forest Service's Northern Research Station worked on a joint study to examine the possible effects of future global and regional climate change on the occurrence of fire-weather patterns often associated with extreme and erratic wildfire behavior in the United States.

BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system - BURN subsystem, Part 2

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews; Carolyn H. Chase

1989-01-01

This is the third publication describing the BEHAVE system of computer programs for predicting behavior of wildland fires. This publication adds the following predictive capabilities: distance firebrands are lofted ahead of a wind-driven surface fire, probabilities of firebrands igniting spot fires, scorch height of trees, and percentage of tree mortality. The system...

The spatially varying influence of humans on fire probability in North America

Treesearch

Marc-Andre Parisien; Carol Miller; Sean A. Parks; Evan R. DeLancey; Francois-Nicolas Robinne; Mike D. Flannigan

2016-01-01

Humans affect fire regimes by providing ignition sources in some cases, suppressing wildfires in others, and altering natural vegetation in ways that may either promote or limit fire. InNorthAmerica, several studies have evaluated the effects of society on fire activity; however, most studies have been regional or subcontinental in scope and used different...

Bald Mountain Fire long term fire assessment - V1.0 9/24/2012

Treesearch

Bret Fay; LaWen Hollingsworth

2012-01-01

The purpose of this assessment is to answer a number of questions from the agency administrator and Fire Management staff. What are the risks to the following points of concern: Wilderness boundary; Forest Boundary; Minam Lodge and Red's Horse Ranch; Private Lands in Catherine Creek; Lostine River "cherry stem"; Probability of the fire establishing...

Solar Flare Occurrence Rate and Probability in Terms of the Sunspot Classification Supplemented with Sunspot Area and Its Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Moon, Y.; Lee, J.; Na, H.; Lee, K.

2013-12-01

We investigate the solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability in terms of the sunspot classification supplemented with sunspot area and its changes. For this we use the NOAA active region data and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive 11 sunspot classes in the McIntosh sunspot group classification. Sunspot area and its changes can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. We classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups by its area: 'Large' and 'Small'. In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot area changes: 'Decrease', 'Steady', and 'Increase'. As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the 'Increase' sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M + X)-class flares in the ';Dkc' group, the flare occurrence rate of the 'Increase' sub-group is three times higher than that of the 'Steady' sub-group. The mean flare occurrence rates and flare probabilities for all sunspot groups increase with the following order: 'Decrease', 'Steady', and 'Increase'. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance the occurrence of major solar flares.

Fire and vegetation history of the Jemez Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Johnson, Peggy S.

2001-01-01

Historic patterns of fire occurrence and vegetation change in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico have been described in detail by using multiple lines of evidence. Data sources include old aerial and ground-based photographs, historic records, charcoal deposits from bogs, fire-scarred trees (Figure 1), tree-ring reconstructions of precipitation, and field sampling of vegetation and soils. The forests and woodlands that cloak the Southwestern uplands provide the most extensive and detailed regional-scale network of fire history data available in the world (Swetnam and Baisan 1996, Swetnam et al. 1999, Allen 2002).

Heavy Precipitation impacts and emergency planning - developing applicable strategies for a metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutschker, Thomas; Glade, Thomas

2016-04-01

Heavy rainfall in central Europe is one of the assumed effects of climate change, which occurs with large seasonal and regional differences in its magnitude. The extent of loss depends on natural parameters (e.g. topography and vegetation) as well as on socio-economic factors like urbanized and industrialized areas and population density. Dangerous cascade effects appear, if critical infrastructure like the electrical power supply is affected. In some cases mudflows and flash floods cause inundated or undercut roads and cause a high demand for fast and effective assistance of the authorities. The civil protection in Germany is based on a federal system with a bottom-up command-structure and responsibility to the local community. Commonly this responsibility is taken by the fire brigades and civil protection units of the community or district. After heavy rainfall in an urban area, numerous incidents and emergency calls appearing at a time are overstressing the human and technical resources of the fire brigades within the local authority frequently. In this study, a method of comprehensive evaluation of meteorological data and the operation data from local fire brigades shall be developed for the Rhine-Main-Area in order to identify particular affected spots of heavy rain and bundle resources of the fire brigades. It is to be found out if the study area contains regions with a particularly high exposure to heavy rain and high application numbers of the fire department and whether there is a relationship of rainfall and frequency of use. To evaluate particular local effects on the fire brigades capability, a brief analysis of the meteorological data provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD) as well as the evaluation of the incident data of the affected fire brigades, is used to frame a realistic approach. In particular fire brigade operation data can be used accordingly to describe the intensity of the aftermath when heavy precipitation strikes a certain area. It shows that most of the damage is caused by spilled sewage drains flooding basements and streets. Besides less fire brigade operations are observed in rural areas with constant amount of rainfall. The occurrence of heavy rain events is spatially limited, hot-spot areas with higher probability can be detected. Based on this finding, a resource management strategy for the fire brigade can be developed. Keywords: emergency planning strategy, critical infrastructure, heavy rainfall, fire-brigade resource management

Multinomial Logistic Regression Predicted Probability Map To Visualize The Influence Of Socio-Economic Factors On Breast Cancer Occurrence in Southern Karnataka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhu, B.; Ashok, N. C.; Balasubramanian, S.

2014-11-01

Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to develop statistical model that can predict the probability of breast cancer in Southern Karnataka using the breast cancer occurrence data during 2007-2011. Independent socio-economic variables describing the breast cancer occurrence like age, education, occupation, parity, type of family, health insurance coverage, residential locality and socioeconomic status of each case was obtained. The models were developed as follows: i) Spatial visualization of the Urban- rural distribution of breast cancer cases that were obtained from the Bharat Hospital and Institute of Oncology. ii) Socio-economic risk factors describing the breast cancer occurrences were complied for each case. These data were then analysed using multinomial logistic regression analysis in a SPSS statistical software and relations between the occurrence of breast cancer across the socio-economic status and the influence of other socio-economic variables were evaluated and multinomial logistic regression models were constructed. iii) the model that best predicted the occurrence of breast cancer were identified. This multivariate logistic regression model has been entered into a geographic information system and maps showing the predicted probability of breast cancer occurrence in Southern Karnataka was created. This study demonstrates that Multinomial logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of breast cancer Occurrence in Southern Karnataka.

Fall rates of prescribed fire-killed ponderosa pine. Forest Service research paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrington, M.G.

1996-05-01

Fall rates of prescribed fire-killed ponderosa pine were evaluated relative to tree and fire damage characteristics. High crown scorch and short survival time after fire injury were factors leading to a high probability of early tree fall. The role of chemical defense mechanisms is discussed. Results apply to prescribed-fire injured, second-growth ponderosa pine less than 16 inches diameter at breast height.

Ecological effects of the Hayman Fire - Part 4: Forest succession

Treesearch

William H. Romme; Claudia M. Regan; Merrill R. Kaufmann; Laurie Huckaby; Thomas T. Veblen

2003-01-01

The ecosystems within the area that burned in the Hayman Fire have a long history of fire (see part 1 of this chapter). It follows, therefore, that all of the native species and populations in this area probably have one or more mechanisms for enduring fire or becoming reestablished after fire and that no native species is likely to become extinct as a result of the...

Airway fires during surgery: Management and prevention

PubMed Central

Akhtar, Navaid; Ansar, Farrukh; Baig, Mirza Shahzad; Abbas, Akbar

2016-01-01

Airway fires pose a serious risk to surgical patients. Fires during surgery have been reported for many years with flammable anesthetic agents being the main culprits in the past. Association of airway fires with laser surgery is well-recognized, but there are reports of endotracheal tube fires ignited by electrocautery during pharyngeal surgery or tracheostomy or both. This uncommon complication has potentially grave consequences. While airway fires are relatively uncommon occurrences, they are very serious and can often be fatal. Success in preventing such events requires a thorough understanding of the components leading to a fire (fuel, oxidizer, and ignition source), as well as good communication between all members present to appropriately manage the fire and ensure patient safety. We present a case of fire in the airway during routine adenotonsillectomy. We will review the causes, preventive measures, and brief management for airway fires. PMID:27006554

Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high-severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests.

PubMed

Krofcheck, Daniel J; Hurteau, Matthew D; Scheller, Robert M; Loudermilk, E Louise

2018-02-01

In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels reduction approaches that include mechanical thinning followed by regular prescribed fire are one approach to restore the ability of the ecosystem to tolerate episodic fire and still sequester C. Yet, the spatial extent of the area requiring treatment makes widespread treatment implementation unlikely. We sought to determine if a priori knowledge of where uncharacteristic wildfire is most probable could be used to optimize the placement of fuels treatments in a Sierra Nevada watershed. We developed two treatment placement strategies: the naive strategy, based on treating all operationally available area and the optimized strategy, which only treated areas where crown-killing fires were most probable. We ran forecast simulations using projected climate data through 2,100 to determine how the treatments differed in terms of C sequestration, fire severity, and C emissions relative to a no-management scenario. We found that in both the short (20 years) and long (100 years) term, both management scenarios increased C stability, reduced burn severity, and consequently emitted less C as a result of wildfires than no-management. Across all metrics, both scenarios performed the same, but the optimized treatment required significantly less C removal (naive=0.42 Tg C, optimized=0.25 Tg C) to achieve the same treatment efficacy. Given the extent of western forests in need of fire restoration, efficiently allocating treatments is a critical task if we are going to restore adaptive capacity in frequent-fire forests. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hollingsworth, LaWen T.; Kurth, Laurie,; Parresol, Bernard, R.

Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation System. The fundamental fire intensity algorithms in these systems require surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model surface fire behavior. Canopy base height, stand height, and canopy bulk density are required in addition to surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model crown fire activity. Several surface fuelmore » and canopy classification efforts have used various remote sensing and ecological relationships as core methods to develop the spatial layers. All of these methods depend upon consistent and temporally constant interpretations of crown attributes and their ecological conditions to estimate surface fuel conditions. This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for an 80,000 ha tract of land in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern US using three different data sources. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the US using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern US using satellite imagery. Differences in modeled fire behavior, data development, and data utility are summarized to assist in determining which data source may be most applicable for various land management activities and required analyses. Characterizing fire behavior under different fuel relationships provides insights for natural ecological processes, management strategies for fire mitigation, and positive and negative features of different modeling systems. A comparison of flame length, rate of spread, crown fire activity, and burn probabilities modeled with FlamMap shows some similar patterns across the landscape from all three data sources, but there are potentially important differences. All data sources showed an expected range of fire behavior. Average flame lengths ranged between 1 and 1.4 m. Rate of spread varied the greatest with a range of 2.4-5.7 m min{sup -1}. Passive crown fire was predicted for 5% of the study area using FCCS and LANDFIRE while passive crown fire was not predicted using SWRA data. No active crown fire was predicted regardless of the data source. Burn probability patterns across the landscape were similar but probability was highest using SWRA and lowest using FCCS.« less

Multistability, local pattern formation, and global collective firing in a small-world network of nonleaky integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Rothkegel, Alexander; Lehnertz, Klaus

2009-03-01

We investigate numerically the collective dynamical behavior of pulse-coupled nonleaky integrate-and-fire neurons that are arranged on a two-dimensional small-world network. To ensure ongoing activity, we impose a probability for spontaneous firing for each neuron. We study network dynamics evolving from different sets of initial conditions in dependence on coupling strength and rewiring probability. Besides a homogeneous equilibrium state for low coupling strength, we observe different local patterns including cyclic waves, spiral waves, and turbulentlike patterns, which-depending on network parameters-interfere with the global collective firing of the neurons. We attribute the various network dynamics to distinct regimes in the parameter space. For the same network parameters different network dynamics can be observed depending on the set of initial conditions only. Such a multistable behavior and the interplay between local pattern formation and global collective firing may be attributable to the spatiotemporal dynamics of biological networks.

Black Earths (Terra Preta): Observations of wider occurrence from natural fire

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recently, the occurrence of fertile dark-colored soils in the Amazon (Anthropogenic Dark Earths or terra preta de Indio) has been associated with prehistoric anthropogenic soil modification through long term additions of black carbon and other organic amendments from both agricultural and waste mana...

Allocating Fire Mitigation Funds on the Basis of the Predicted Probabilities of Forest Wildfire

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Greg C. Liknes; Mark D. Nelson; Krista M. Gebert; R. James Barbour; Susan L. Odell; Steven C. Yaddof

2005-01-01

A logistic regression model was used with map-based information to predict the probability of forest fire for forested areas of the United States. Model parameters were estimated using a digital layer depicting the locations of wildfires and satellite imagery depicting thermal hotspots. The area of the United States in the upper 50th percentile with respect to...

Emergency assessments of postfire debris-flow hazards for the 2009 La Brea, Jesusita, Guiberson, Morris, Sheep, Oak Glen, Pendleton, and Cottonwood fires in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2010-01-01

This report presents an emergency assessment of potential debris-flow hazards from basins burned by the 2009 La Brea and Jesusita fires in Santa Barbara County, the Guiberson fire in Ventura County, the Morris fire in Los Angeles County, the Sheep, Oak Glen, and Pendleton fires in San Bernardino County, and the Cottonwood fire in Riverside County, southern California. Statistical-empirical models developed to analyze postfire debris flows are used to estimate the probability and volume of debris-flows produced from drainage basins within each of the burned areas. Debris-flow probabilities and volumes are estimated as functions of different measures of basin burned extent, gradient, and material properties in response to both a 3-hour-duration, 2-year-recurrence thunderstorm and to a widespread, 12-hour-duration, 2-year-recurrence winter storm. This assessment provides critical information for issuing warnings, locating and designing mitigation measures, and planning evacuation timing and routes within the first two winters following the fire.

Impact of five modifiable lifestyle habits on the probability of cancer occurrence in a Japanese population-based cohort: results from the JPHC study.

PubMed

Charvat, Hadrien; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sawada, Norie; Shimazu, Taichi; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2013-11-01

The present work aims to provide 10-year estimates of the probability of cancer occurrence in the Japanese population based on age, sex, and the pattern of adherence to five healthy lifestyle habits. The study population consisted of 74,935 participants in the Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study (aged 45 to 74 years) who answered a 5-year follow-up questionnaire about various lifestyle habits between 1995 and 1999. The relationship between five previously identified healthy lifestyle habits (never smoking, moderate or no alcohol consumption, adequate physical activity, moderate salt intake, and appropriate body mass index) and cancer occurrence was assessed using a sex-specific parametric survival model. Compared to individuals not adhering to any of the five habits, never-smoking men had a nearly 30% reduction in the 10-year probability of cancer occurrence (e.g., 20.5% vs. 28.7% at age 70), and never-smoking women had a 16% reduction (e.g., 10.5% vs. 12.5% at age 70). Adherence to all five habits was estimated to reduce the 10-year probability of cancer occurrence by 1/2 in men and 1/3 in women. By quantifying the impact of lifestyle habits on the probability of cancer occurrence, this study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle improvement. © 2013.

Rapid extraction of image texture by co-occurrence using a hybrid data structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clausi, David A.; Zhao, Yongping

2002-07-01

Calculation of co-occurrence probabilities is a popular method for determining texture features within remotely sensed digital imagery. Typically, the co-occurrence features are calculated by using a grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) to store the co-occurring probabilities. Statistics are applied to the probabilities in the GLCM to generate the texture features. This method is computationally intensive since the matrix is usually sparse leading to many unnecessary calculations involving zero probabilities when applying the statistics. An improvement on the GLCM method is to utilize a grey level co-occurrence linked list (GLCLL) to store only the non-zero co-occurring probabilities. The GLCLL suffers since, to achieve preferred computational speeds, the list should be sorted. An improvement on the GLCLL is to utilize a grey level co-occurrence hybrid structure (GLCHS) based on an integrated hash table and linked list approach. Texture features obtained using this technique are identical to those obtained using the GLCM and GLCLL. The GLCHS method is implemented using the C language in a Unix environment. Based on a Brodatz test image, the GLCHS method is demonstrated to be a superior technique when compared across various window sizes and grey level quantizations. The GLCHS method required, on average, 33.4% ( σ=3.08%) of the computational time required by the GLCLL. Significant computational gains are made using the GLCHS method.

Analysis of causal factors of fire regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palumbo, I.; Lehsten, V.; Balzter, H.

2009-04-01

Wildfires are a wide spread global phenomenon. Their activity peaks in the tropical savannas, especially in the African continent, where fires are a key component of ecosystem dynamics. Fires affect the ecological balance between trees and grasses in savannas with concomitant effects on biodiversity, soil fertility and biogeochemical cycles. Large amounts of trace greenhouse gases and aerosols from wildfires are emitted each year in Africa, but the underlying dynamics of such wildfires and what drives them remain poorly understood. In general terms, the magnitude and the inter-annual variability of fire activity depend on fire frequency and its spatial distribution, also referred to as fire regimes. These are, in turn, determined by the environmental conditions at the time of burning, ignition sources, fuel type, fuel availability, and its moisture content. This study analysed the driving factors of fire regimes at continental level for a period of 5 years (2002-2007). We considered the following variables: climate (rainfall, temperature, humidity), population density, land cover and the burned areas derived from the MODIS MCD45A1 product at 500m resolution. GIS and multi-variate regression techniques were used to analyse the data. Understanding fire driving factors is fundamentally important for developing process-based simulation models of fire occurrence under future climate and environmental change scenarios. This is particularly relevant if we consider that the IPCC 4th Assessment report indicates that a change in the rainfall patterns has been observed in the last 40 years over most of Africa with a decrease of precipitation around 20-40% in West Africa and more intense and widespread droughts in Southern Africa. The simultaneous increase of temperatures can potentially lead to higher fire occurrence and modify the current fire regimes. This work contributes to climate change research with new insights and understanding about how fires are controlled by bioclimatic and demographic factors in African ecosystems.

Infrared-fiber-optic fire sensor developments - Role of measurement uncertainty in evaluation of background limited range. [in spacecraft safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tapphorn, Ralph M.; Kays, Randy; Porter, Alan

1989-01-01

Fire-detector systems based on distributed infrared fiber-sensors have been investigated for potential applications in the aerospace industry. Responsivities to blackbody and flame radiations were measured with various design configurations of an infrared fiber-optic sensor. Signal processing techniques were also investigated, and the results show significant differences in the fire-sensor performance depending on the design configuration. Measurement uncertainties were used to determine the background-limited ranges for the various fire-sensor concepts, and the probability of producing false alarms caused by fluctuations in the background signals were determined using extreme probability theory. The results of the research show that infrared fiber-optic fire sensors are feasible for application on manned spacecraft; however, additional development work will be required to eliminate false alarms caused by high temperature objects such as incandescent lamps.

Fire history and fire-climate relationships in upper elevation forests of the southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margolis, Ellis Quinn

Fire history and fire-climate relationships of upper elevation forests of the southwestern United States are imperative for informing management decisions in the face of increased crown fire occurrence and climate change. I used dendroecological techniques to reconstruct fires and stand-replacing fire patch size in the Madrean Sky Islands and Mogollon Plateau. Reconstructed patch size (1685-1904) was compared with contemporary patch size (1996-2004). Reconstructed fires at three sites had stand-replacing patches totaling > 500 ha. No historical stand-replacing fire patches were evident in the mixed conifer/aspen forests of the Sky Islands. Maximum stand-replacing fire patch size of modern fires (1129 ha) was greater than that reconstructed from aspen (286 ha) and spruce-fir (521 ha). Undated spruce-fir patches may be evidence of larger (>2000ha) stand-replacing fire patches. To provide climatological context for fire history I used correlation and regionalization analyses to document spatial and temporal variability in climate regions, and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) teleconnections using 273 tree-ring chronologies (1732-1979). Four regions were determined by common variability in annual ring width. The component score time series replicate spatial variability in 20th century droughts (e.g., 1950's) and pluvials (e.g., 1910's). Two regions were significantly correlated with instrumental SOI and AMO, and three with PDO. Sub-regions within the southwestern U.S. varied geographically between the instrumental (1900-1979) and the pre-instrumental periods (1732-1899). Mapped correlations between ENSO, PDO and AMO, and tree-ring indices illustrate detailed sub-regional variability in the teleconnections. I analyzed climate teleconnections, and fire-climate relationships of historical upper elevation fires from 16 sites in 8 mountain ranges. I tested for links between Palmer Drought Severity Index and tree-ring reconstructed ENSO, PDO and AMO phases (1905-1978 and 1700-1904). Upper elevation fires (115 fires, 84 fire years, 1623-1904) were compared with climate indices. ENSO, PDO, and AMO affected regional PDSI, but AMO and PDO teleconnections changed between periods. Fire occurrence was significantly related to inter-annual variability in PDSI, precipitation, ENSO, and phase combinations of ENSO and PDO, but not AMO (1700-1904). Reduced upper elevation fire (1785-1840) was coincident with a cool AMO phase.

El Niño-southern oscillation effect on a fire regime in northeastern Mexico has changed over time.

PubMed

Yocom, Larissa L; Fulé, Peter Z; Brown, Peter M; Cerano, Julian; Villanueva-Díaz, José; Falk, Donald A; Cornejo-Oviedo, Eladio

2010-06-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate-forcing mechanism that has been shown to affect precipitation and the occurrence of wildfires in many parts of the world. In the southern United States and northern Mexico, warm events (El Niño) are associated with moist winter conditions and fewer fires, while cool events (La Niñia) tend to favor dry winters and more fires. We tested this relationship in a region of northeastern Mexico by characterizing the historical fire regime and climatic influences: Fire regimes were reconstructed from fire-scar samples collected from 100 trees in three high-elevation sites on Peña Nevada in southern Nuevo Le6n. The sites were approximately 25 ha each, and the site centers were approximately 1 km apart. The earliest recorded fire occurred in 1521 and the time period we used for analysis was 1645-1929. The sites were characterized by frequent surface fires before the 1920s. In the three sites, mean fire intervals ranged from 8.6 to 9.6 years (all fires) and 11.9 to 18.6 years (fires that scarred > or = 25% of recording trees). The per-tree mean fire return interval was 17 years, and all three sites burned in the same year seven times between 1774 and 1929. After 1929, fires were nearly eliminated in all sites, likely due to human causes. We found a temporal change in the association between ENSO events and fires; before the 1830s La Niña events were significantly associated with fire years, while after the 1830s this association was not significant. In 1998, when the most severe El Niño event of the past century occurred, the three sites experienced severe, stand-replacing fires that killed many trees that had survived multiple surface fires in the past. Prior to the 1830s, fires tended to occur during dry La Niña years, but since then both La Niña and El Niño have been associated with dry years in this region, especially during the last three decades. This result suggests that ENSO effects have changed over time in this location and that phases of ENSO are not consistent indicators of precipitation, fire occurrence, or fire behavior in this area of northeastern Mexico.

Characterization of fire regime in Sardinia (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Mastinu, S.; Masala, F.; Sirca, C.; Spano, D.

2012-12-01

In the last decades, a number of Authors highlighted the crucial role of forest fires within Mediterranean ecosystems, with impacts both negative and positive on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In Sardinia (Italy), the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, forest fires are perceived as one of the main environmental and social problems, and data are showing that the situation is worsening especially within the rural-urban peripheries and the increasing number of very large forest fires. The need for information concerning forest fire regime has been pointed out by several Authors (e.g. Rollins et al., 2002), who also emphasized the importance of understanding the factors (such as weather/climate, socio-economic, and land use) that determine spatial and temporal fire patterns. These would be used not only as a baseline to predict the climate change effect on forest fires, but also as a fire management and mitigation strategy. The main aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the last three decades (1980-2010). For the analyzed period, fire statistics were provided by the Sardinian Forest Service (CFVA - Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale), while weather data for eight weather stations were obtained from the web site www.tutiempo.it. For each station, daily series of precipitation, mean, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were available. The present study firstly analyzed fire statistics (burned area and number of fires) according to the main fire regime characteristics (seasonality, fire return interval, fire incidence, fire size distribution). Then, fire and weather daily values were averaged to obtain monthly, seasonal and annual values, and a set of parametric and not parametric statistical tests were used to analyze the fire-weather relationships. Results showed a high inter- and intra-annual variability, also considering the different type of affected vegetation. As for other Mediterranean areas, a smaller number of large fires caused a high proportion of burned area. Land cover greatly influenced fire occurrence and fire size distribution across the landscape. Furthermore, fire activity (number of fires and area burned) showed significant correlations with weather variables, especially summer precipitation and wind, which seemed to drive the fire seasons and the fire propagation, respectively.

Implementation of the fire and fire surrogate study— a national research effort to evaluate the consequences of fuel reduction treatments

Treesearch

Andrew Youngblood; Kerry L. Metlen; Eric E. Knapp; Kenneth W. Outcalt; Scott L. Stephens; Thomas A. Waldrop; Daniel Yaussy

2005-01-01

Many fire-dependent forests today are denser, contain fewer large trees, have higher fuel loads, and greater fuel continuity than occurred under historical fire regimes. These conditions increase the probability of unnaturally severe wildfires. Silviculturists are increasingly being asked to design fuel reduction treatments to help protect existing and future forest...

Climate change impact on fire probability and severity in Mediterranean areas

Treesearch

Bachisio Arca; Grazia Pellizzaro; Pierpaolo Duce; Michele Salis; Valentina Bacciu; Donatella Spano; Alan Ager; Mark Finney

2010-01-01

Fire is one of the most significant threats for the Mediterranean forested areas. Global change may increase the wildland fire risk due to the combined effect of air temperature and humidity on fuel status, and the effect of wind speed on fire behaviour. This paper investigated the potential effect of the climate changes predicted for the Mediterranean basin by a...

A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac C. Grenfell; Karin L. Riley; Karen C. Short

2011-01-01

This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for...

THE DISTRIBUTION OF ROUNDS FIRED IN STOCHASTIC DUELS

DTIC Science & Technology

This paper continues the development of the theory of Stochastic Duels to include the distribution of the number of rounds fired. Most generally...the duel between two contestants who fire at each other with constant kill probabilities per round is considered. The time between rounds fired may be...at the beginning of the duel may be limited and is a discrete random variable. Besides the distribution of rounds fired, its first two moments and

Probability of loss of assured safety in temperature dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jay Dean; Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig

2004-12-01

Relationships to determine the probability that a weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) safety system will fail to function as intended in a fire environment are investigated. In the systems under study, failure of the WL system before failure of the SL system is intended to render the overall system inoperational and thus prevent the possible occurrence of accidents with potentially serious consequences. Formal developments of the probability that the WL system fails to deactivate the overall system before failure of the SL system (i.e., the probability of loss of assured safety, PLOAS) are presented for several WWSL configurations: (i) onemore » WL, one SL, (ii) multiple WLs, multiple SLs with failure of any SL before any WL constituting failure of the safety system, (iii) multiple WLs, multiple SLs with failure of all SLs before any WL constituting failure of the safety system, and (iv) multiple WLs, multiple SLs and multiple sublinks in each SL with failure of any sublink constituting failure of the associated SL and failure of all SLs before failure of any WL constituting failure of the safety system. The indicated probabilities derive from time-dependent temperatures in the WL/SL system and variability (i.e., aleatory uncertainty) in the temperatures at which the individual components of this system fail and are formally defined as multidimensional integrals. Numerical procedures based on quadrature (i.e., trapezoidal rule, Simpson's rule) and also on Monte Carlo techniques (i.e., simple random sampling, importance sampling) are described and illustrated for the evaluation of these integrals. Example uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for PLOAS involving the representation of uncertainty (i.e., epistemic uncertainty) with probability theory and also with evidence theory are presented.« less

Metapopulation Dynamics of the Mistletoe and Its Host in Savanna Areas with Different Fire Occurrence

PubMed Central

Teodoro, Grazielle Sales; van den Berg, Eduardo; Arruda, Rafael

2013-01-01

Mistletoes are aerial hemiparasitic plants which occupy patches of favorable habitat (host trees) surrounded by unfavorable habitat and may be possibly modeled as a metapopulation. A metapopulation is defined as a subdivided population that persists due to the balance between colonization and extinction in discrete habitat patches. Our aim was to evaluate the dynamics of the mistletoe Psittacanthus robustus and its host Vochysia thyrsoidea in three Brazilian savanna areas using a metapopulation approach. We also evaluated how the differences in terms of fire occurrence affected the dynamic of those populations (two areas burned during the study and one was fire protected). We monitored the populations at six-month intervals. P. robustus population structure and dynamics met the expected criteria for a metapopulation: i) the suitable habitats for the mistletoe occur in discrete patches; (ii) local populations went extinct during the study and (iii) colonization of previously non-occupied patches occurred. The ratio of occupied patches decreased in all areas with time. Local mistletoe populations went extinct due to two different causes: patch extinction in area with no fire and fire killing in the burned areas. In a burned area, the largest decrease of occupied patch ratios occurred due to a fire event that killed the parasites without, however, killing the host trees. The greatest mortality of V. thyrsoidea occurred in the area without fire. In this area, all the dead trees supported mistletoe individuals and no mortality was observed for parasite-free trees. Because P. robustus is a fire sensitive species and V. thyrsoidea is fire tolerant, P. robustus seems to increase host mortality, but its effect is lessened by periodic burning that reduces the parasite loads. PMID:23776554

Development of a fire weather index using meteorological observations within the Northeast United States

Treesearch

Michael J. Erickson; Joseph J. Charney; Brian A. Colle

2016-01-01

A fire weather index (FWI) is developed using wildfire occurrence data and Automated Surface Observing System weather observations within a subregion of the northeastern United States (NEUS) from 1999 to 2008. Average values of several meteorological variables, including near-surface temperature, relative humidity, dewpoint, wind speed, and cumulative daily...

Spacecraft Fire Safety and Microgravity Combustion Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tien, James S.; Ferkul, Paul (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Fire safety is an important concern in our daily lives and it plays a special role in the human presence in space. In a spacecraft, the outside environment is hostile and the opportunity to escape is small. Rescue missions are difficult and time consuming. As a result, we should avoid the occurrence of fires in spacecraft as much as possible. If a fire occurs, we need to keep it small and under control. This implies that the materials used on board the spacecraft should be screened carefully, all the machines and devices need to be operated without accident, and fire detectors have to function properly. Once a fire is detected, it can be extinguished quickly and the cabin can be cleaned up to restore operation and sustain life.

Built structure identification in wildland fire decision support

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Jon D. Rieck; Kevin D. Hyde; Jeffrey D. Kaiden

2011-01-01

Recent ex-urban development within the wildland interface has significantly increased the complexity and associated cost of federal wildland fire management in the United States. Rapid identification of built structures relative to probable fire spread can help to reduce that complexity and improve the performance of incident management teams. Approximate structure...

Responses of pond-breeding amphibians to wildfire: Short-term patterns in occupancy and colonization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, B.R.; Corn, P.S.

2007-01-01

Wildland fires are expected to become more frequent and severe in many ecosystems, potentially posing a threat to many sensitive species. We evaluated the effects of a large, stand-replacement wildfire on three species of pond-breeding amphibians by estimating changes in occupancy of breeding sites during the three years before and after the fire burned 42 of 83 previously surveyed wetlands. Annual occupancy and colonization for each species was estimated using recently developed models that incorporate detection probabilities to provide unbiased parameter estimates. We did not find negative effects of the fire on the occupancy or colonization rates of the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum). Instead, its occupancy was higher across the study area after the fire, possibly in response to a large snowpack that may have facilitated colonization of unoccupied wetlands. Naïve data (uncorrected for detection probability) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) initially led to the conclusion of increased occupancy and colonization in wetlands that burned. After accounting for temporal and spatial variation in detection probabilities, however, it was evident that these parameters were relatively stable in both areas before and after the fire. We found a similar discrepancy between naïve and estimated occupancy of A. macrodactylum that resulted from different detection probabilities in burned and control wetlands. The boreal toad (Bufo boreas) was not found breeding in the area prior to the fire but colonized several wetlands the year after they burned. Occupancy by B. boreas then declined during years 2 and 3 following the fire. Our study suggests that the amphibian populations we studied are resistant to wildfire and that B. boreas may experience short-term benefits from wildfire. Our data also illustrate how naïve presence–non-detection data can provide misleading results.

Modelling above-ground carbon dynamics using multi-temporal airborne lidar: insights from a Mediterranean woodland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simonson, W.; Ruiz-Benito, P.; Valladares, F.; Coomes, D.

2015-09-01

Woodlands represent highly significant carbon sinks globally, though could lose this function under future climatic change. Effective large-scale monitoring of these woodlands has a critical role to play in mitigating for, and adapting to, climate change. Mediterranean woodlands have low carbon densities, but represent important global carbon stocks due to their extensiveness and are particularly vulnerable because the region is predicted to become much hotter and drier over the coming century. Airborne lidar is already recognized as an excellent approach for high-fidelity carbon mapping, but few studies have used multi-temporal lidar surveys to measure carbon fluxes in forests and none have worked with Mediterranean woodlands. We use a multi-temporal (five year interval) airborne lidar dataset for a region of central Spain to estimate above-ground biomass (AGB) and carbon dynamics in typical mixed broadleaved/coniferous Mediterranean woodlands. Field calibration of the lidar data enabled the generation of grid-based maps of AGB for 2006 and 2011, and the resulting AGB change were estimated. There was a close agreement between the lidar-based AGB growth estimate (1.22 Mg ha-1 year-1) and those derived from two independent sources: the Spanish National Forest Inventory, and a~tree-ring based analysis (1.19 and 1.13 Mg ha-1 year-1, respectively). We parameterised a simple simulator of forest dynamics using the lidar carbon flux measurements, and used it to explore four scenarios of fire occurrence. Under undisturbed conditions (no fire occurrence) an accelerating accumulation of biomass and carbon is evident over the next 100 years with an average carbon sequestration rate of 1.95 Mg C ha-1 year-1. This rate reduces by almost a third when fire probability is increased to 0.01, as has been predicted under climate change. Our work shows the power of multi-temporal lidar surveying to map woodland carbon fluxes and provide parameters for carbon dynamics models. Space deployment of lidar instruments in the near future could open the way for rolling out wide-scale forest carbon stock monitoring to inform management and governance responses to future environmental change.

Modelling fire frequency and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain using reanalysis data and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2013-09-01

We develop fire occurrence and burned area models in peninsular Spain, an area of high variability in climate and fuel types, for the period 1990-2008. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming to the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climatic and fuel conditions. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) as modelling algorithms and temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed, taken from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, as well as the components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as predictors. We also computed the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as an additional predictor for the models of burned area. We found two contrasting fire regimes in terms of area burned and number of fires: one characterized by a bimodal annual pattern, characterizing the Nemoral and Oro-boreal phytoclimatic types, and another one exhibiting an unimodal annual cycle, with the fire season concentrated in the summer months in the Mediterranean and Arid regions. The fire occurrence models attained good skill in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, yielding in some zones notably high correlation coefficients between the observed and modelled inter-annual fire frequencies. Total area burned also exhibited a high dependence on the meteorological drivers, although their ability to reproduce the observed annual burned area time series was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, and also SPEI in some of the burned area models, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire modelling applications and leaving the door opened to the development a more complex modelling framework based on these predictors. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential usefulness of ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the reconstruction of historical fire-climate relationships at the scale of analysis. Fire frequency predictions may provide a preferable basis for past fire history reconstruction, long-term monitoring and the assessment of future climate impacts on fire regimes across regions, posing several advantages over burned area as response variable.

Natural Hazards In Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres-Vera, M.

2001-12-01

Around the world more than 300 natural disasters occur each year, taking about 250,000 lives and directly affecting more than 200 million people. Natural hazards are complex and vary greatly in their frequency, speed of onset, duration and area affected. They are distinguished from extreme natural events, which are much more common and widespread, by their potential impacts on human societies. A natural disaster is the occurrence of a natural hazard on a large scale, involving great damage and, particularly in developing countries, great loss of life. The Basin of Mexico, whose central and southwestern parts are occupied by the urban area of Mexico City at the average altitude of 2,240 m above the sea level, is located on the southern edge of the Southern Plateau Central, on a segment of the Trans-Mexican Neovolcanic Belt that developed during Pliocene-Holocene times. The Basin of Mexico is a closed basin, which was created with the closing of the former Valley of Mexico because of basaltic-andesitic volcanism that formed the Sierra de Chichinautzin south of the city. The south-flowing drainage was obstructed and prompted the development of a lake that became gradually filled with sediments during the last 700,000 years. The lake fill accumulated unconformably over a terrain of severely dissected topography, which varies notably in thickness laterally. The major part of the urban area of Mexico City is built over these lake deposits, whereas the rest is built over alluvial material that forms the transition zone between the lake deposits and what constitutes the basement for the basin fill. In the present study, the effect of rain, fire and earthquakes onto Mexico City is evaluated. Rain risk was calculated using the most dangerous flood paths. The fire risk zones were determined by defining the vegetation areas with greater probability to catch fires. Earthquake hazards were determined by characterization of the zones that are vulnerable to damages produced by earthquakes. This information was used to generate maps, which delimited zones that may suffer damage by rain, fire or earthquake. The convolution of the obtained maps produces a map of the city, where the areas with higher probability to suffer a hazard are defined. These results can be used to propose land use planning to avoid the growth of urban areas in high-risk zones.

Fuels and fire in land-management planning: Part 3. Costs and losses for management options.

Treesearch

Wayne G. Maxwell; David V. Sandberg; Franklin R. Ward

1983-01-01

An approach is illustrated for computing expected costs of fire protection; fuel treatment; fire suppression; damage values; and percent of area lost to wildfire for a management or rotation cycle. Input is derived from Part 1, a method for collecting and classifying the total fuel complex, and Part 2, a method for appraising and rating probable fire behavior. This...

Estimated smoldering probability: a new tool for predicting ground fire in the organic soils on the North Carolina Coastal Plain

Treesearch

James Reardon; Gary Curcio

2011-01-01

In the Southeastern United States, fires in pocosin wetlands and other similar vegetation communities with deep organic soils are a serious concern to fire managers. Highly flammable shrubs, such as gallberry and fetterbush, and small evergreen trees, such as red and loblolly bay, create the potential for extreme surface fire behavior. Moreover, deep organic soils...

An analytical framework for quantifying wildland fire risk and fuel treatment benefit

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott

2006-01-01

Federal wildland fire management programs have readily embraced the practice of fuel treatment. Wildland fire risk is quantified as expected annual loss ($ yr –1 or $ yr –1 ac –1). Fire risk at a point on the landscape is a function of the probability of burning at that point, the relative frequency...

Fire occurrence and tussock size modulate facilitation by Ampelodesmos mauritanicus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Incerti, Guido; Giordano, Daniele; Stinca, Adriano; Senatore, Mauro; Termolino, Pasquale; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Bonanomi, Giuliano

2013-05-01

Facilitation has been reported for a wide range of plant communities, with evidence of interactions between protégé and nurse plants shifting during their ontogenetic cycles. This study showed that large Ampelodesmos mauritanicus tussocks can act as nurse for different species, but only after fire occurrence. Large tussocks are typically composed by an external belt of living tillers surrounding dead standing tillers in the inner area, thus being arranged as a “ring” shape. A low plant diversity in unburned sites, dominated by intact Ampelodesmos tussocks, was related to the intense aboveground competition due to space physical limitation by standing tillers, as well as to the reduction of light availability at ground level. In contrast, after burning, tussocks resprouted only in their external belts, leaving empty inner areas. During post-fire recovery, several species (e.g. Plantago spp., Trifolium spp., Carlina spp.) recolonize the bare soil among different tussocks. On the other hand, a moss (Funaria hygrometrica) and several herbaceous and woody plants (e.g. Spartium junceum, Calicotome villosa, Quercus pubescens subsp. pubescens) were selectively distributed within the ash-full central areas of burned Ampelodesmos tussocks. In summary, the study reported evidence of changing prevalence in the interplay of competition and facilitation effects between small and large Ampelodesmos tussocks, respectively. These results suggest a broad significance of the interactions between fire occurrence and ontogenetic phases of the dominant species in affecting the restoration dynamics of natural plant communities.

Limitations imposed on fire PRA methods as the result of incomplete and uncertain fire event data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nowlen, Steven Patrick; Hyslop, J. S.

2010-04-01

Fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods utilize data and insights gained from actual fire events in a variety of ways. For example, fire occurrence frequencies, manual fire fighting effectiveness and timing, and the distribution of fire events by fire source and plant location are all based directly on the historical experience base. Other factors are either derived indirectly or supported qualitatively based on insights from the event data. These factors include the general nature and intensity of plant fires, insights into operator performance, and insights into fire growth and damage behaviors. This paper will discuss the potential methodology improvements thatmore » could be realized if more complete fire event reporting information were available. Areas that could benefit from more complete event reporting that will be discussed in the paper include fire event frequency analysis, analysis of fire detection and suppression system performance including incipient detection systems, analysis of manual fire fighting performance, treatment of fire growth from incipient stages to fully-involved fires, operator response to fire events, the impact of smoke on plant operations and equipment, and the impact of fire-induced cable failures on plant electrical circuits.« less

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Loss Estimations due to Earthquakes and Secondary Technological Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2009-04-01

Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary importance for emergency management just after the disaster, as well as for development and implementation of preventive measures plans. The paper addresses the procedures and simulation models for loss estimations due to strong earthquakes and secondary technological accidents. The mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution, damage to buildings and structures, debris volume, number of fatalities and injuries due to earthquakes and technological accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities are considered, which are used in geographical information systems assigned for these purposes. The criteria of technological accidents occurrence are developed on the basis of engineering analysis of past events' consequences. The paper is providing the results of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation and individual seismic risk assessment taking into account the secondary technological hazards at regional and urban levels. The individual risk is understood as the probability of death (or injuries) due to possible hazardous event within one year in a given territory. It is determined through mathematical expectation of social losses taking into account the number of inhabitants in the considered settlement and probability of natural and/or technological disaster.

Management of a fire in the operating room.

PubMed

Kaye, Alan David; Kolinsky, Daniel; Urman, Richard D

2014-04-01

Operating room (OR) fires remain a significant source of liability for anesthesia providers and injury for patients, despite existing practice guidelines and other improvements in operating room safety. Factors contributing to OR fires are well understood and these occurrences are generally preventable. OR personnel must be familiar with the fire triad which consists of a fuel supply, an oxidizing agent, and an ignition source. Existing evidence shows that OR-related fires can result in significant patient complications and malpractice claims. Steps to reduce fires include taking appropriate safety measures before a patient is brought to the OR, taking proper preventive measures during surgery, and effectively managing fire and patient complications when they occur. Decreasing the incidence of fires should be a team effort involving the entire OR personnel, including surgeons, anesthesia providers, nurses, scrub technologists, and administrators. Communication and coordination among members of the OR team is essential to creating a culture of safety.

Climate-Driven Risk of Large Fire Occurrence in the Western United States, 1500 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crockett, J.; Westerling, A. L.

2017-12-01

Spatially comprehensive fire climatology has provided managers with tools to understand thecauses and consequences of large forest wildfires, but a paleoclimate context is necessary foranticipating the trajectory of future climate-fire relationships. Although accumulated charcoalrecords and tree scars have been utilized in high resolution, regional fire reconstructions, there isuncertainty as to how current climate-fire relationships of the western United States (WUS) fitwithin the natural long-term variability. While contemporary PDSI falls within the naturalvariability of the past, contemporary temperatures skew higher. Here, we develop a WUSfire reconstruction by applying climate-fire-topography model built on the 1972 to 2003 periodto the past 500 years, validated by recently updated fire-scar histories from WUS forests. Theresultant narrative provides insight into changing climate-fire relationships during extendedperiods of high aridity and temperature, providing land managers with historical precedent toeffectively anticipate disturbances during future climate change.

A high-resolution modelling approach on spatial wildfire distribution in the Tyrolean Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malowerschnig, Bodo; Sass, Oliver

2013-04-01

Global warming will cause increasing danger of wildfires in Austria, which can have long-lasting consequences on woodland ecosystems. The protective effect of forest can be severely diminished, leading to natural hazards like avalanches and rockfall. However, data on wildfire frequency and distribution have been sparse and incomplete for Austria. Long-lasting postfire degradation under adverse preconditions (steep slopes, limestone) was a common phenomenon in parts of the Tyrolean Alps several decades ago and should become relevant again under a changing fire frequency. The FIRIA project compiles historical wildfire data, information on fuel loads, fire weather indices (FWI) and vegetation recovery patterns. The governing climatic, topographic and socio-economic factors of forest fire distribution were assessed to trigger a distribution model of currently fire-prone areas in Tyrol. By collecting data from different sources like old newspapers archives and fire-fighter databases, we were able to build up a fire database of wildfire occurrences containing more than 1400 forest fires since the 15th century in Tyrol. For the period from 1993 to 2011, the database is widely complete and covers 482 fires. Using a non-parametrical statistical method it was possible to select the best suited fire weather index (FWI) for the prediction. The testing of 19 FWI's shows that it is necessary to use two discriminative indices to differentiate between summer and winter season. Together with compiled topographic, socio-economic, infrastructure and forest maps, the dataset was the base for a multifactorial analysis, performed by comparing the maximum entropy approach (Maxent) with an ensemble classifier (Random Forests). Both approaches have their background in the spatial habitat distribution and are easy to adapt to the requirements of a wildfire ignition model. The aim of this modelling approach was to determine areas which are particularly prone to wildfire. Due to the pronounced relief curvature we based our model on 100 x 100 m cells to identify individual slopes and their topography. The first provisional result is a map of fire probability under current climate conditions (fire hot-spots). Our modelling approach indicates the fire weather index as the main driver, which is followed closely by socioeconomic (population density) and infrastructure factors (roads density, aerial railways, building density). The leverage of the forest community or its management is rather low; the same applies to topographic influences like aspect or sea level. The derived fire hot-spots are either placed close to the valley ground or around touristic infrastructure, with an overall preference for inner alpine areas and south-facing slopes. In the next step, the impact of climate change on the distribution and frequency of fires will be assessed by calculating a climate change model adapted to the 1x1km INCA dataset and based on different regional climate change models. Finally, a selection of fire-hot-spots from the previous modelling steps will be used for enhanced 3D-modelling approaches of natural hazards after wildfire-driven deforestation.

Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacchiano, Giorgio; Foderi, Cristiano; Berretti, Roberta; Marchi, Enrico; Motta, Renzo

2018-03-01

Modeling and assessing the factors that drive forest fire ignitions is critical for fire prevention and sustainable ecosystem management. In southern Europe, the anthropogenic component of wildland fire ignitions is especially relevant. In the Alps, however, the role of fire as a component of disturbance regimes in forest and grassland ecosystems is poorly known. The aim of this work is to model the probability of fire ignition for an Alpine region in Italy using a regional wildfire archive (1995-2009) and MaxEnt modeling. We analyzed separately (i) winter forest fires, (ii) winter fires on grasslands and fallow land, and (iii) summer fires. Predictors were related to morphology, climate, and land use; distance from infrastructures, number of farms, and number of grazing animals were used as proxies for the anthropogenic component. Collinearity among predictors was reduced by a principal component analysis. Regarding ignitions, 30 % occurred in agricultural areas and 24 % in forests. Ignitions peaked in the late winter-early spring. Negligence from agrosilvicultural activities was the main cause of ignition (64 %); lightning accounted for 9 % of causes across the study time frame, but increased from 6 to 10 % between the first and second period of analysis. Models for all groups of fire had a high goodness of fit (AUC 0.90-0.95). Temperature was proportional to the probability of ignition, and precipitation was inversely proportional. Proximity from infrastructures had an effect only on winter fires, while the density of grazing animals had a remarkably different effect on summer (positive correlation) and winter (negative) fires. Implications are discussed regarding climate change, fire regime changes, and silvicultural prevention. Such a spatially explicit approach allows us to carry out spatially targeted fire management strategies and may assist in developing better fire management plans.

Employment of Direct Fire Systems during Offensive Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-01

problems, this criteria suffers from a lack of offensive direct fire planning as part 115 of the scheme of maneuver. Limited TTP discussion in the...these specific occurrences. Doctrine writers could develop TTP to do so. This problem could involve unit training practices. If units differentiate ...10 0 0 0 5 PURPOSE) 4. - IDENTIFIES DIRECT FIRE I 76 15 20 130 21 15 115 R&S PRIORITY (PIR/IR) 5. - IDENTIFIES ENGAGEMENT 1 5 10 0 25 16 0 0 PRIORITY

Efficient video-equipped fire detection approach for automatic fire alarm systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Myeongsu; Tung, Truong Xuan; Kim, Jong-Myon

2013-01-01

This paper proposes an efficient four-stage approach that automatically detects fire using video capabilities. In the first stage, an approximate median method is used to detect video frame regions involving motion. In the second stage, a fuzzy c-means-based clustering algorithm is employed to extract candidate regions of fire from all of the movement-containing regions. In the third stage, a gray level co-occurrence matrix is used to extract texture parameters by tracking red-colored objects in the candidate regions. These texture features are, subsequently, used as inputs of a back-propagation neural network to distinguish between fire and nonfire. Experimental results indicate that the proposed four-stage approach outperforms other fire detection algorithms in terms of consistently increasing the accuracy of fire detection in both indoor and outdoor test videos.

Landscape-scale patterns of fire and drought on the high plains, USA

Treesearch

Paulette Ford; Charles Jackson; Matthew Reeves; Benjamin Bird; Dave Turner

2015-01-01

We examine 31 years (1982-2012) of temperature, precipitation and natural wildfire occurrence data for Federal and Tribal lands to determine landscape-scale patterns of drought and fire on the southern and central High Plains of the western United States. The High Plains states of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas and...

76 FR 59014 - Standard for the Flammability of Mattresses and Mattress Pads; Technical Amendment

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-23

... in 1972 under the authority of the Flammable Fabrics Act (``FFA''), 15 U.S.C. 1191 et seq. When the... NIST Technical Note 1627; and Non-``Fire-Safe Cigarette'' (FSC) The first three descriptors are... the risk of the occurrence of fire leading to death, injury, or significant property damage; (2) is...

Spatiotemporal distribution patterns of forest fires in northern Mexico

Treesearch

Gustavo Pérez-Verdin; M. A. Márquez-Linares; A. Cortes-Ortiz; M. Salmerón-Macias

2013-01-01

Using the 2000-2011 CONAFOR databases, a spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of forest fires in Durango, one of the most affected States in Mexico, was conducted. The Moran's index was used to determine a spatial distribution pattern; also, an analysis of seasonal and temporal autocorrelation of the data collected was completed. The geographically weighted...

Daily fire occurrence in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2009

Treesearch

W. M. Hao; H. M. Eissinger; A. Petkov; B. L. Nordgren; Shawn Urbanski

2010-01-01

Northern Eurasia, covering 20% of the global land mass and containing 70% of boreal forest, is extremely sensitive to climate changes. Warmer temperatures in this region have led to less snowfall, earlier spring, longer growing season, and reduced moisture for soil and vegetation in summer. Recently, severe drought and record high temperatures caused catastrophic fires...

Vegetation clearance distances to prevent wildland fire caused damage to telecommunication and power transmission infrastructure (2)

Treesearch

B. W. Butler; T. Wallace; J. Hogge

2015-01-01

Towers and poles supporting power transmission and telecommunication lines have collapsed due to heating from wildland fires. Such occurrences have led to interruptions in power or communication in large municipal areas with associated social and political implications as well as increased immediate danger to humans. Vegetation clearance standards for overhead...

Vegetation clearance distances to prevent wildland fire caused damage to telecommunication and power transmission infrastructure

Treesearch

B. W. Butler; J. Webb; J. Hogge; T. Wallace

2015-01-01

Towers and poles supporting power transmission and telecommunication lines have collapsed due to heating from wildland fires. Such occurrences have led to interruptions in power or communication in large municipal areas with associated social and political implications as well as increased immediate danger to humans. Unfortunately, no studies address the question of...

Sand sagebrush response to fall and spring prescribed burns

Treesearch

Lance T. Vermeire; Robert B. Mitchell; Samuel D. Fuhlendorf

2001-01-01

Sand sagebrush (Artemisia filifolia) is a dominant shrub on sandy soils throughout the Great Plains and Southwest. Sand sagebrush is reported to reduce wind erosion and provides valuable forage and cover to numerous wildlife species. However, the fire ecology of sand sagebrush is not well understood. Our objectives were to evaluate fire-induced mortality, occurrence of...

Chaparral recovery following a major fire with variable burn conditions

Treesearch

Diane H. Rachels; Douglas A. Stow; John F. O' Leary; Harry D. Johnson; Philip J. Riggan

2016-01-01

Wildfires are a common occurrence in California shrublands, maintaining ecosystem functions with the regeneration of key shrub species. The Cedar Fire of 2003 in southern California was unique in that a portion of it burned with wildfire accelerated by dry, strong northeasterly Santa Ana winds that later subsided, while the remaining area burned under an onshore,...

Effects of partial time delays on phase synchronization in Watts-Strogatz small-world neuronal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaojuan; Perc, Matjaž; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-05-01

In this paper, we study effects of partial time delays on phase synchronization in Watts-Strogatz small-world neuronal networks. Our focus is on the impact of two parameters, namely the time delay τ and the probability of partial time delay pdelay, whereby the latter determines the probability with which a connection between two neurons is delayed. Our research reveals that partial time delays significantly affect phase synchronization in this system. In particular, partial time delays can either enhance or decrease phase synchronization and induce synchronization transitions with changes in the mean firing rate of neurons, as well as induce switching between synchronized neurons with period-1 firing to synchronized neurons with period-2 firing. Moreover, in comparison to a neuronal network where all connections are delayed, we show that small partial time delay probabilities have especially different influences on phase synchronization of neuronal networks.

Effects of partial time delays on phase synchronization in Watts-Strogatz small-world neuronal networks.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaojuan; Perc, Matjaž; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-05-01

In this paper, we study effects of partial time delays on phase synchronization in Watts-Strogatz small-world neuronal networks. Our focus is on the impact of two parameters, namely the time delay τ and the probability of partial time delay p delay , whereby the latter determines the probability with which a connection between two neurons is delayed. Our research reveals that partial time delays significantly affect phase synchronization in this system. In particular, partial time delays can either enhance or decrease phase synchronization and induce synchronization transitions with changes in the mean firing rate of neurons, as well as induce switching between synchronized neurons with period-1 firing to synchronized neurons with period-2 firing. Moreover, in comparison to a neuronal network where all connections are delayed, we show that small partial time delay probabilities have especially different influences on phase synchronization of neuronal networks.

Meteorological conditions affecting the Freeman Lake (Idaho) fire

Treesearch

George M. Jemison

1932-01-01

Measurements of meteorological conditions prevailing during the rapid spread of forest fires are greatly needed so that when their recurrence seems probable, fire-weather forecasters may issue warnings of the danger. Such determinations also can be used by forest protective agencies which operate meteorological stations to guide their own action in the distribution of...

Local, state, and national perspectives

Treesearch

Donald A. Pierpont; Ken Nehoda; Jerry T. Williams

1995-01-01

Prescribed fire has been recognized as a potential tool for land managers for many years. The gradual recognition of the important role of fire in wildlands has been documented many times. In the United States, this recognition probably first occurred in the longleaf pine region of the southern United States. Various agencies that once focused on fire exclusion...

What kind of cutting and thinning can prevent crown fires?

Treesearch

Mick Harrington

2008-01-01

Many land managers are attempting to lessen the probability of severe wildfire behavior and impacts, especially near communities, by manipulating canopy and surface fuel characteristics. Various interest groups have questioned the value of fuels treatments. In reality, apart from fire exposure when a real fire went through a treated stand, effectiveness of fuel...

Sensor data monitoring and decision level fusion scheme for early fire detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizogiannis, Constantinos; Thanos, Konstantinos Georgios; Astyakopoulos, Alkiviadis; Kyriazanos, Dimitris M.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

2017-05-01

The aim of this paper is to present the sensor monitoring and decision level fusion scheme for early fire detection which has been developed in the context of the AF3 Advanced Forest Fire Fighting European FP7 research project, adopted specifically in the OCULUS-Fire control and command system and tested during a firefighting field test in Greece with prescribed real fire, generating early-warning detection alerts and notifications. For this purpose and in order to improve the reliability of the fire detection system, a two-level fusion scheme is developed exploiting a variety of observation solutions from air e.g. UAV infrared cameras, ground e.g. meteorological and atmospheric sensors and ancillary sources e.g. public information channels, citizens smartphone applications and social media. In the first level, a change point detection technique is applied to detect changes in the mean value of each measured parameter by the ground sensors such as temperature, humidity and CO2 and then the Rate-of-Rise of each changed parameter is calculated. In the second level the fire event Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) function is determined for each ground sensor using Fuzzy-logic theory and then the corresponding mass values are combined in a decision level fusion process using Evidential Reasoning theory to estimate the final fire event probability.

California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) habitat use patterns in a burned landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eyes, Stephanie; Roberts, Susan L.; Johnson, Matthew D.

2017-01-01

Fire is a dynamic ecosystem process of mixed-conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada, but there is limited scientific information addressing wildlife habitat use in burned landscapes. Recent studies have presented contradictory information regarding the effects of stand-replacing wildfires on Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis) and their habitat. While fire promotes heterogeneous forest landscapes shown to be favored by owls, high severity fire may create large canopy gaps that can fragment the closed-canopy habitat preferred by Spotted Owls. We used radio-telemetry to determine whether foraging California Spotted Owls (S. o. occidentalis) in Yosemite National Park, California, USA, showed selection for particular fire severity patch types within their home ranges. Our results suggested that Spotted Owls exhibited strong habitat selection within their home ranges for locations near the roost and edge habitats, and weak selection for lower fire severity patch types. Although owls selected high contrast edges with greater relative probabilities than low contrast edges, we did not detect a statistical difference between these probabilities. Protecting forests from stand-replacing fires via mechanical thinning or prescribed fire is a priority for management agencies, and our results suggest that fires of low to moderate severity can create habitat conditions within California Spotted Owls' home ranges that are favored for foraging.

Geographic Mapping as a Tool for Identifying Communities at High Risk for Fires.

PubMed

Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol; Coty, Mary-Beth

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the sample of older adults in a home fire safety (HFS) study captured participants living in the areas at highest risk for fire occurrence. The secondary aim was to identify high risk areas to focus future HFS interventions. Geographic information systems software was used to identify census tracts where study participants resided. Census data for these tracts were compared with participant data based on seven risk factors (ie, age greater than 65 years, nonwhite race, below high school education, low socioeconomic status, rented housing, year home built, home value) previously identified in a fire risk model. The distribution of participants and census tracts among risk categories determined how well higher risk census tracts were sampled. Of the 46 census tracts where the HFS intervention was implemented, 78% (n = 36) were identified as high or severe risk according to the fire risk model. Study participants' means for median annual family income (P < .0001) and median home value (P < .0001) were significantly lower than the census tract means (n = 46), indicating participants were at higher risk of fire occurrence. Of the 92 census tracts identified as high or severe risk in the entire county, the study intervention was implemented in 39% (n = 36), indicating 56 census tracts as potential areas for future HFS interventions. The Geographic information system-based fire risk model is an underutilized but important tool for practice that allows community agencies to develop, plan, and evaluate their outreach efforts and ensure the most effective use of scarce resources.

Can anthropic fires affect epigaeic and hypogaeic Cerrado ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) communities in the same way?

PubMed

Canedo-Júnior, Ernesto de Oliveira; Cuissi, Rafael Gonçalves; Nelson Henrique de Almeida, Curi; Demetrio, Guilherme Ramos; Lasmar, Chaim José; Malves, Kira

2016-03-01

Fire occurrences are a common perturbation in Cerrado ecosystems, and may differently impact the local biodiversity. Arthropods are one of the taxa affected by fires, and among them, ants are known as good bioindicators. We aimed to evaluate the effect of anthropic fires on epigaeic and hypogaeic ant communities (species richness and composition) in Cerrado areas with different post-fire event recovery periods. We conducted the study in four Cerrado areas during two weeks of 2012 dry season: one unburned and three at different post-fire times (one month, one and two years). We sampled ants with pitfall traps in epigaeic and hypogaeic microhabitats. We collected 71 ant morpho-species from 25 genera. In the epigaeic microhabitat we sampled 56 morpho-species and 42 in the hypogaeic microhabitat. The area with the shortest recovery time presented lower epigaeic ant species richness (4.3 ± 2.00) in comparison to the other areas (8.1 ± 2.68 species on one year area; 10.3 ± 2.66 species on two years area; 10.4 ± 2.31 species on control area), but recovery time did not affect hypogaeic ant species richness. Regarding ant species composition, fire did not directly affect hypogaeic ant species, which remained the same even one month after fire event. However, two years were not enough to reestablish ant species composition in both microhabitats in relation to our control group samples. Our study is the first to assess anthropic fire effects upon epigaeic and hypogaeic ants communities; highlighting the importance of evaluating different microhabitats, to more accurately detect the effects of anthropic disturbances in biological communities. We concluded that ant communities are just partially affected by fire occurrences, and epigaeic assemblages are the most affected ones in comparison to hypogaeic ants. Furthermore the study provides knowledge to aid in the creation of vegetation management programs that allow Cerrado conservation.

How wildfire risk is related to urban planning and Fire Weather Index in SE France (1990-2013).

PubMed

Fox, D M; Carrega, P; Ren, Y; Caillouet, P; Bouillon, C; Robert, S

2018-04-15

Wildfires burn >450,000ha of forest every year in Euro-Mediterranean countries. Many fires originate in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) where housing density and weather conditions affect fire occurrence. Housing density is determined by long term land use policies while weather conditions evolve quickly. The first objective was to quantify the impacts of land use policy on WUI characteristics and fire risk in SE France during 1990-2012. The second objective was to quantify how Fire Weather Index (FWI) is related to fire occurrence. WUI was mapped from 1990, 1999, and 2012 building layers and crossed with a NDVI derived vegetation layer. In all, 12 WUI categories were derived: 4 building density classes and 3 vegetation layers. The I87 FWI was based on daily temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and soil water content. Despite a 30% increase in the number of new buildings, WUI area increased by only 5% as new housing filled in open space in existing WUI area. This trend can be linked to national level urban planning legislation and forest fire protection laws. Major driver variables determining housing location were aspect, slope, and distance to city centers. Fire frequency and burned area were nonlinearly related to FWI: 73% of the 99 fires occurred during weeks with FWI values ≥90 even though these accounted for only 44% of all weeks. Burned area was even more sensitive to FWI since 97% of total burned area occurred during weeks with mean FWI values ≥90. All days with burned areas >100ha had FWI values >150. The study demonstrated that WUI legislation can be an efficient tool to limit WUI fire risk. FWI results suggest the predicted increase in extreme summer heat events with global warming could increase burned area as firefighting resources are stretched beyond capacity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Streamflow characteristics at streamgages in northern Afghanistan and selected locations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; Williams-Sether, Tara

2010-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for 79 historical streamgages in Northern Afghanistan and other selected historical streamgages are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamgage include (1) station description, (2) graph of the annual mean discharge for the period of record, (3) statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, (4) monthly and annual flow duration, (5) probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, (6) probability of occurrence of annual low discharges, (7) probability of occurrence of seasonal low discharges, (8) annual peak discharges for the period of record, and (9) monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

Preventing deaths and injuries from house fires: an outcome evaluation of a community-based smoke alarm installation programme.

PubMed

Istre, Gregory R; McCoy, Mary A; Moore, Billy J; Roper, Carey; Stephens-Stidham, Shelli; Barnard, Jeffrey J; Carlin, Debra K; Stowe, Martha; Anderson, Ron J

2014-04-01

Few studies have examined the impact of community-based smoke alarm (SA) distribution programmes on the occurrence of house fire-related deaths and injuries (HF-D/I). To determine whether the rate of HF-D/I differed for programme houses that had a SA installed through a community-based programme called Operation Installation, versus non-programme houses in the same census tracts that had not received such a SA. Teams of volunteers and firefighters canvassed houses in 36 high-risk target census tracts in Dallas, TX, between April 2001 and April 2011, and installed lithium-powered SAs in houses where residents were present and gave permission. We then followed incidence of HF-D/I among residents of the 8134 programme houses versus the 24 346 non-programme houses. After a mean of 5.2 years of follow-up, the unadjusted HF-D/I rate was 68% lower among residents of programme houses versus non-programme houses (3.1 vs 9.6 per 100 000 population, respectively; rate ratio, 0.32; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.84). Multivariate analysis including several demographic variables showed that the adjusted HF-D/I rate in programme houses was 63% lower than non-programme houses. The programme was most effective in the first 5 years after SA installation, with declining difference in rates after the 6th year, probably due to SAs becoming non-functional during that time. This collaborative, community-based SA installation programme was effective at preventing deaths and injuries from house fires, but the duration of effectiveness was less than 10 years.

The selection of flying roller as an effort to increase the power of scooter-matic as the main power of centrifugal pump for fire fighter motor cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadi Sutrisno, Himawan

2018-03-01

In densely populated settlements, fires often occur and cause losses. In some instances, the process of the occurrence of fires takes place so quickly that to reduce and avoid the occurrence of a fire disaster effort is required in accordance with the existing environmental condition. Fire fighter motorcycle by using motorcycle scooter-matic is considered suitable as one alternative to combating fire hazard in densely populated residential settlements. The use of motorcycle engines as the driving force of the pump often leads to unstable and not optimum power. Thus, the water spray on the centrifugal pump also becomes not maximum. To increase the engine power at scooter-matic engine idle rotation (700-2000 rpm), then the flying roller replacement with certain mass weight becomes an option. By selecting a 10 to 14 gram flying roller mass, the power analysis using a dynotest engine produces several variations. Of the calculation, the mass of a 14 gram flying roller provides a significant increase in motor power on the upper rotation. Meanwhile, on the lower power rotation using a flying roller with a mass of 10 grams provides an increase in power compared to a standard flying roller on a scooter matic motor engine. As a reference to the use of scooter-matic motor power as the pump power, the result of use of the flying roller with a mass of 10 grams becomes the best option.

Targeting Forest Management through Fire and Erosion Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.

2013-04-01

Forests deliver a number of ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing and quantity of runoff can be altered, and the quality can be severely degraded. A modeling study for about 1500 km2 in the Upper Mokelumne River Watershed in California was conducted to determine the risk of wildfire and the associated potential sediment delivery should a wildfire occur, and to calculate the potential reduction in sediment delivery that might result from fuel reduction treatments. The first step was to predict wildfire severity and probability of occurrence under current vegetation conditions with FlamMap fire prediction tool. FlamMap uses current vegetation, topography, and wind characteristics to predict the speed, flame length, and direction of a simulated flame front for each 30-m pixel. As the first step in the erosion modeling, a geospatial interface for the WEPP model (GeoWEPP) was used to delineate approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons for the study area. The flame length values from FlamMap were then aggregated for each hillslope polygon to yield a predicted fire intensity. Fire intensity and pre-fire vegetation conditions were used to estimate fire severity (either unburned, low, moderate or high). The fire severity was combined with soil properties from the STATSGO database to build the vegetation and soil files needed to run WEPP for each polygon. Eight different stochastic climates were generated to account for the weather variability within the basin. A modified batching version of GeoWEPP was used to predict the first-year post-fire sediment yield from each hillslope and subwatershed. Estimated sediment yields ranged from 0 to more than 100 Mg/ha, and were typical of observed values. The polygons that generated the greatest amount of sediment or that were critical for reducing fire spread were identified, and these were "treated" by reducing the amount of fuel available for a wildfire. The erosion associated with these fuel treatments was estimated using WEPP. FlamMap and WEPP were run a second time to determine the extent to which the imposed treatments reduced fire intensity, fire severity, and the predicted sediment yields. The results allowed managers to quantify the net reduction in sediment delivery due to the prescribed treatments. The modeling also identified those polygons with the greatest net decline in sediment delivery, with the expectation that these polygons would have the highest priority for fuel reduction treatments. An economic value can be assigned to the predicted net change in sediment delivered to a reservoir or a specified decline in water quality. The estimated avoided costs due to the reduction in sediment delivery can help justify the optimized fuel treatments.

Quantifying bushfire penetration into urban areas in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Keping; McAneney, John

2004-06-01

The extent and trajectory of bushfire penetration at the bushland-urban interface are quantified using data from major historical fires in Australia. We find that the maximum distance at which homes are destroyed is typically less than 700 m. The probability of home destruction emerges as a simple linear and decreasing function of distance from the bushland-urban boundary but with a variable slope that presumably depends upon fire regime and human intervention. The collective data suggest that the probability of home destruction at the forest edge is around 60%. Spatial patterns of destroyed homes display significant neighbourhood clustering. Our results provide revealing spatial evidence for estimating fire risk to properties and suggest an ember-attack model.

Late Holocene influence of societies on the fire regime in southern Québec temperate forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blarquez, Olivier; Talbot, Julie; Paillard, Jordan; Lapointe-Elmrabti, Lyna; Pelletier, Nicolas; Gates St-Pierre, Christian

2018-01-01

Climatic change that occurred during the Holocene is often recognized as the main factor for explaining fire dynamics, while the influence of human societies is less apparent. In eastern North America, human influence on fire regime before European settlement has been debated, mainly because of a paucity of sites and paleoecological techniques that can distinguish human influences unequivocally from climate. We applied a multiproxy analysis to a 12 000-year-old paleoecological sequence from a site in the vicinity of known settlement areas that were occupied over more than 7000 years. From this analysis, we were able detect the human influence on the fire regime before and after European colonization. Fire occurrence and fire return intervals (FRI) were based on analysis of sedimentary charcoals at a high temporal and spatial resolution. Fire occurrence was then compared to vegetation that was reconstructed from pollen analysis, from population densities deduced from archeological site dating, from demographic and technological models, and from climate reconstructed using general circulation models and ice-core isotopes. Holocene mean FRI was short (164 ± 134 years) and associated with small charcoal peaks that were likely indicative of surface fires affecting small areas. After 1500 BP, large vegetation changes and human demographic growth that was demonstrated through increased settlement evidence likely caused the observed FRI lengthening (301 ± 201 years), which occurred without significant changes in climate. Permanent settlement by Europeans in the area around 1800 AD was followed by a substantial demographic increase, leading to the establishment of Gatineau, Hull and Ottawa. This trend was accompanied by a shift in the charcoal record toward anthropogenic particles that were reflective of fossil fuel burning and an apparent absence of wood charcoal that would be indicative of complete fire suppression. An anthropogenic fire regime that was characterized by severe and large fires and long fire-return intervals occurred more than 1000 years ago, concomitant with the spread of native agriculture, which intensified with European colonization over the past two centuries.

Analysis of weather condition influencing fire regime in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, Valentina; Masala, Francesco; Salis, Michele; Sirca, Costantino; Spano, Donatella

2014-05-01

Fires have a crucial role within Mediterranean ecosystems, with both negative and positive impacts on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In addition, several authors are in agreement suggesting that, during the past decades, changes on fire patterns have occurred, especially in terms of fire-prone areas expansion and fire season lengthening. Climate and weather are two of the main controlling agents, directly and indirectly, of fire regime influencing vegetation productivity, causing water stress, igniting fires through lightning, or modulating fire behavior through wind. On the other hand, these relationships could be not warranted in areas where most ignitions are caused by people (Moreno et al. 2009). Specific analyses of the driving forces of fire regime across countries and scales are thus still required in order to better anticipate fire seasons and also to advance our knowledge of future fire regimes. The objective of this work was to improve our knowledge of the relative effects of several weather variables on forest fires in Italy for the period 1985-2008. Meteorological data were obtained through the MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) database, interpolated at 25x25 km scale. Fire data were provided by the JRC (Join Research Center) and the CFVA (Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale, Sardinia). A hierarchical cluster analysis, based on fire and weather data, allowed the identification of six homogeneous areas in terms of fire occurrence and climate (pyro-climatic areas). Two statistical techniques (linear and non-parametric models) were applied in order to assess if inter-annual variability in weather pattern and fire events had a significant trend. Then, through correlation analysis and multi-linear regression modeling, we investigated the influence of weather variables on fire activity across a range of time- and spatial-scales. The analysis revealed a general decrease of both number of fires and burned area, although not everywhere with the same magnitude. Overall, regression models where highly significant (p<0.001), and the explained variance ranged from 36% to 80% for fire number and from 37% to 76% for burned area, depending on pyro-climatic area. Moreover, our results contributed in determining the relative importance of climate variables acting at different timescales as control on intrinsic (i.e. flammability and moisture) and extrinsic (i.e. fuel amount and structure) characteristics of vegetation, thus strongly influencing fire occurrence. The good performance of our models, especially in the most fire affected pyro-climatic areas of Italy, and the better understanding of the main driver of fire variability gained through this work could be of great help for fire management among the different pyro-climatic areas.

Fire spread probabilities for experimental beds composed of mixedwood boreal forest fuels

Treesearch

M.B. Dickinson; E.A. Johnson; R. Artiaga

2013-01-01

Although fuel characteristics are assumed to have an important impact on fire regimes through their effects on extinction dynamics, limited capabilities exist for predicting whether a fire will spread in mixedwood boreal forest surface fuels. To improve predictive capabilities, we conducted 347 no-wind, laboratory test burns in surface fuels collected from the mixed-...

Role of fire in restoration of a ponderosa pine forest, Washington

Treesearch

Richy J. Harrod; Richard W. Fonda; Mara K. McGrath

2007-01-01

Ponderosa pine forests in the Eastern Cascades of Washington support dense, overstocked stands in which crown fires are probable, owing to postsettlement sheep grazing, logging, and fire exclusion. In 1991, the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forests began to apply long-term management techniques to reverse postsettlement changes in ponderosa pine forests. For 9 years, the...

Delayed conifer tree mortality following fire in California

Treesearch

Sharon M. Hood; Sheri L. Smith; Daniel R. Cluck

2007-01-01

Fire injury was characterized and survival monitored for 5,246 trees from five wildfires in California that occurred between 1999 and 2002. Logistic regression models for predicting the probability of mortality were developed for incense-cedar, Jeffrey pine, ponderosa pine, red fir and white fir. Two-year post-fire preliminary models were developed for incense-cedar,...

Spatially explicit forecasts of large wildland fire probability and suppression costs for California

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; Anthony L. Westerling; Krista M. Gebert; Francisco Munoz-Arriola; Thomas P. Holmes

2011-01-01

In the last decade, increases in fire activity and suppression expenditures have caused budgetary problems for federal land management agencies. Spatial forecasts of upcoming fire activity and costs have the potential to help reduce expenditures, and increase the efficiency of suppression efforts, by enabling them to focus resources where they have the greatest effect...

1954 midsummer fuel moistures in Oregon and Washington national forests compared with other years.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1955-01-01

For the third successive year mid-fire-season fuel moistures on national forests of Oregon and Washington averaged higher than in the preceding year, and forest flammability was correspondingly lower. Generally high fuel-moisture conditions during 1954 are reflected in fire occurrence, which approached an all-time low. Fuel-moisture ratings are based on the 25 lowest...

Seasonal variation and the co-occurence of four pathogens and a group of parasites among monogyne and polygyne fire ant colonies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A year-long survey of was conducted to determine the seasonality and co-occurrence of four pathogens and a group of parasites in colonies of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, in north-central Florida. S. invicta colonies were sampled and examined for the presence of Pseudacteon spp. (P...

Impact of wildfire on stream nutrient chemistry and ecosystem metabolism in boreal forest catchments of interior Alaska

Treesearch

Emma F. Betts; Jeremy B. Jones

2009-01-01

With climatic warming, wildfire occurrence is increasing in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. Loss of catchment vegetation during fire can impact streams directly through altered solute and debris inputs and changed light and temperature regimes. Over longer time scales, fire can accelerate permafrost degradation, altering catchment hydrology and stream nutrient...

Multi-scalar influence of weather and climate on very large-fires in the Eastern United States

Treesearch

John T. Abatzoglou; Renaud Barbero; Crystal A. Kolden; Katherine C. Hegewisch; Narasimhan K. Larkin; Harry Podschwit

2014-01-01

A majority of area burned in the Eastern United States (EUS) results from a limited number of exceptionally large wildfires. Relationships between climatic conditions and the occurrence of very large-fires (VLF) in the EUS were examined using composite and climate-niche analyses that consider atmospheric factors across inter-annual, sub-seasonal and synoptic temporal...

Guide to PBDE: Toxic Flame Retardant--What Women, Children and School Personnel Need to Know. Revised

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Healthy Schools Network, Inc., 2012

2012-01-01

Chemical flame-retardants are used in a variety of products to prevent the spread and occurrence of fire. While fire safety is critical, this family of chemicals, known as Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are highly toxic. They are found in carpeting, foam cushions, polyester clothing and bedding, wallpaper, toys, household dust, a variety…

Diversity and habitat relationships of hypogeous fungi. III. Factors influencing the occurrence of fire-adapted species

Treesearch

Andrew W. Claridge; James M. Trappe; Douglas J. Mills; Debbie L. Claridge

2009-01-01

Among the huge array of hypogeous ectomycorrhizal fungi so far documented from Australia, six genera and more than 30 species occur within the family Mesophelliaceae, all of which show various adaptations for surviving in fire-prone landscapes. These mostly endemic fungi are critical to postfire reestablishment of regenerating vegetation, and their fruit-bodies provide...

Landscape-scale fuel treatment and wildfire impacts on carbon stocks and fire hazard in California spotted owl habitat

Treesearch

Lindsay A. Chiono; Danny L. Fry; Brandon M. Collins; Andrea H. Chatfield; Scott L. Stephens

2017-01-01

Forest managers are challenged with meeting numerous demands that often include wildlife habitat and carbon (C) sequestration. We used a probabilistic framework of wildfire occurrence to (1) estimate the potential for fuel treatments to reduce fire risk and hazard across the landscape and within protected California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis...

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

PubMed

Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

2014-05-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling☆

PubMed Central

Eastaugh, C.S.; Hasenauer, H.

2014-01-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's ‘soil water’ and ‘labile litter carbon’ variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness. PMID:26109905

Statistical characteristics of climbing fiber spikes necessary for efficient cerebellar learning.

PubMed

Kuroda, S; Yamamoto, K; Miyamoto, H; Doya, K; Kawat, M

2001-03-01

Mean firing rates (MFRs), with analogue values, have thus far been used as information carriers of neurons in most brain theories of learning. However, the neurons transmit the signal by spikes, which are discrete events. The climbing fibers (CFs), which are known to be essential for cerebellar motor learning, fire at the ultra-low firing rates (around 1 Hz), and it is not yet understood theoretically how high-frequency information can be conveyed and how learning of smooth and fast movements can be achieved. Here we address whether cerebellar learning can be achieved by CF spikes instead of conventional MFR in an eye movement task, such as the ocular following response (OFR), and an arm movement task. There are two major afferents into cerebellar Purkinje cells: parallel fiber (PF) and CF, and the synaptic weights between PFs and Purkinje cells have been shown to be modulated by the stimulation of both types of fiber. The modulation of the synaptic weights is regulated by the cerebellar synaptic plasticity. In this study we simulated cerebellar learning using CF signals as spikes instead of conventional MFR. To generate the spikes we used the following four spike generation models: (1) a Poisson model in which the spike interval probability follows a Poisson distribution, (2) a gamma model in which the spike interval probability follows the gamma distribution, (3) a max model in which a spike is generated when a synaptic input reaches maximum, and (4) a threshold model in which a spike is generated when the input crosses a certain small threshold. We found that, in an OFR task with a constant visual velocity, learning was successful with stochastic models, such as Poisson and gamma models, but not in the deterministic models, such as max and threshold models. In an OFR with a stepwise velocity change and an arm movement task, learning could be achieved only in the Poisson model. In addition, for efficient cerebellar learning, the distribution of CF spike-occurrence time after stimulus onset must capture at least the first, second and third moments of the temporal distribution of error signals.

Statistics concerning the Apollo command module water landing, including the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, sucessful impact, and body X-axis loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitnah, A. M.; Howes, D. B.

1971-01-01

Statistical information for the Apollo command module water landings is presented. This information includes the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, a successful impact, and body X-axis loads of various magnitudes.

Spaces of Surveillance: A Study of Newspaper Articles on School Surveillance Cameras from 2002-2014

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grannäs, Jan

2016-01-01

Today, school fires, vandalism, graffiti and bullying in school environments are common occurrences in Sweden. As a result, schools are faced with significant tangible and intangible costs for different types of measures, of which surveillance technology is one. This paper presents a study of newspaper articles mapping the occurrence and…

Fuel type characterization and potential fire behavior estimation in Sardinia and Corsica islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V.; Pellizzaro, G.; Santoni, P.; Arca, B.; Ventura, A.; Salis, M.; Barboni, T.; Leroy, V.; Cancellieri, D.; Leoni, E.; Ferrat, L.; Perez, Y.; Duce, P.; Spano, D.

2012-04-01

Wildland fires represent a serious threat to forests and wooded areas of the Mediterranean Basin. As recorded by the European Commission (2009), during the last decade Southern Countries have experienced an annual average of about 50,000 forest fires and about 470,000 burned hectares. The factor that can be directly manipulated in order to minimize fire intensity and reduce other fire impacts, such as three mortality, smoke emission, and soil erosion, is wildland fuel. Fuel characteristics, such as vegetation cover, type, humidity status, and biomass and necromass loading are critical variables in affecting wildland fire occurrence, contributing to the spread, intensity, and severity of fires. Therefore, the availability of accurate fuel data at different spatial and temporal scales is needed for fire management applications, including fire behavior and danger prediction, fire fighting, fire effects simulation, and ecosystem simulation modeling. In this context, the main aims of our work are to describe the vegetation parameters involved in combustion processes and develop fire behavior fuel maps. The overall work plan is based firstly on the identification and description of the different fuel types mainly affected by fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) and Corsica (France) Islands, and secondly on the clusterization of the selected fuel types in relation to their potential fire behavior. In the first part of the work, the available time series of fire event perimeters and the land use map data were analyzed with the purpose of identifying the main land use types affected by fires. Thus, field sampling sites were randomly identified on the selected vegetation types and several fuel variables were collected (live and dead fuel load partitioned following Deeming et al., (1977), depth of fuel layer, plant cover, surface area-to-volume ratio, heat content). In the second part of the work, the potential fire behavior for every experimental site was simulated using BEHAVE fire behavior prediction system (Andrews, 1989) and experimental fuel data. Fire behavior was simulated by setting different weather scenarios representing the most frequent summer meteorological conditions. The simulation outputs (fireline intensity, rate of spread, flame length) were then analyzed for clustering the different fuel types in relation to their potential fire behavior. The results of this analysis can be used to produce fire behavior fuel maps that are important tools in evaluating fire hazard and risk for land management planning, locating and rating fuel treatments, and aiding in environmental assessments and fire danger programs modeling. This work is supported by FUME Project FP7-ENV-2009-1, Grant Agreement Number 243888 and Proterina-C Project, EU Italia-Francia Marittimo 2007-2013 Programme.

Mapping regional patterns of large forest fires in Wildland-Urban Interface areas in Europe.

PubMed

Modugno, Sirio; Balzter, Heiko; Cole, Beth; Borrelli, Pasquale

2016-05-01

Over recent decades, Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) trends in many regions of Europe have reconfigured the landscape structures around many urban areas. In these areas, the proximity to landscape elements with high forest fuels has increased the fire risk to people and property. These Wildland-Urban Interface areas (WUI) can be defined as landscapes where anthropogenic urban land use and forest fuel mass come into contact. Mapping their extent is needed to prioritize fire risk control and inform local forest fire risk management strategies. This study proposes a method to map the extent and spatial patterns of the European WUI areas at continental scale. Using the European map of WUI areas, the hypothesis is tested that the distance from the nearest WUI area is related to the forest fire probability. Statistical relationships between the distance from the nearest WUI area, and large forest fire incidents from satellite remote sensing were subsequently modelled by logistic regression analysis. The first European scale map of the WUI extent and locations is presented. Country-specific positive and negative relationships of large fires and the proximity to the nearest WUI area are found. A regional-scale analysis shows a strong influence of the WUI zones on large fires in parts of the Mediterranean regions. Results indicate that the probability of large burned surfaces increases with diminishing WUI distance in touristic regions like Sardinia, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or in regions with a strong peri-urban component as Catalunya, Comunidad de Madrid, Comunidad Valenciana. For the above regions, probability curves of large burned surfaces show statistical relationships (ROC value > 0.5) inside a 5000 m buffer of the nearest WUI. Wise land management can provide a valuable ecosystem service of fire risk reduction that is currently not explicitly included in ecosystem service valuations. The results re-emphasise the importance of including this ecosystem service in landscape valuations to account for the significant landscape function of reducing the risk of catastrophic large fires. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Tree mortality from fire and bark beetles following early and late season prescribed fires in a Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwilk, Dylan W.; Knapp, Eric E.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Keeley, Jon E.; Caprio, Anthony C.

2006-01-01

Over the last century, fire exclusion in the forests of the Sierra Nevada has allowed surface fuels to accumulate and has led to increased tree density. Stand composition has also been altered as shade tolerant tree species crowd out shade intolerant species. To restore forest structure and reduce the risk of large, intense fires, managers have increasingly used prescription burning. Most fires prior to EuroAmerican settlement occurred during the late summer and early fall and most prescribed burning has taken place during the latter part of this period. Poor air quality and lack of suitable burn windows during the fall, however, have resulted in a need to conduct more prescription burning earlier in the season. Previous reports have suggested that burning during the time when trees are actively growing may increase mortality rates due to fine root damage and/or bark beetle activity. This study examines the effects of fire on tree mortality and bark beetle attacks under prescription burning during early and late season. Replicated early season burn, late season burn and unburned control plots were established in an old-growth mixed conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada that had not experienced a fire in over 120 years. Although prescribed burns resulted in significant mortality of particularly the smallest tree size classes, no difference between early and late season burns was detected. Direct mortality due to fire was associated with fire intensity. Secondary mortality due to bark beetles was not significantly correlated with fire intensity. The probability of bark beetle attack on pines did not differ between early and late season burns, while the probability of bark beetle attack on firs was greater following early season burns. Overall tree mortality appeared to be primarily the result of fire intensity rather than tree phenology at the time of the burns. Early season burns are generally conducted under higher fuel moisture conditions, leading to less fuel consumption and potentially less injury to trees. This reduction in fire severity may compensate for relatively modest increases in bark beetle attack probabilities on some tree species, ultimately resulting in a forest structure that differs little between early and late season prescribed burning treatments.

High-severity fire: evaluating its key drivers and mapping its probability across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parks, Sean A.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Panunto, Matthew H.; Jolly, W. Matt; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dillon, Gregory K.

2018-04-01

Wildland fire is a critical process in forests of the western United States (US). Variation in fire behavior, which is heavily influenced by fuel loading, terrain, weather, and vegetation type, leads to heterogeneity in fire severity across landscapes. The relative influence of these factors in driving fire severity, however, is poorly understood. Here, we explore the drivers of high-severity fire for forested ecoregions in the western US over the period 2002–2015. Fire severity was quantified using a satellite-inferred index of severity, the relativized burn ratio. For each ecoregion, we used boosted regression trees to model high-severity fire as a function of live fuel, topography, climate, and fire weather. We found that live fuel, on average, was the most important factor driving high-severity fire among ecoregions (average relative influence = 53.1%) and was the most important factor in 14 of 19 ecoregions. Fire weather was the second most important factor among ecoregions (average relative influence = 22.9%) and was the most important factor in five ecoregions. Climate (13.7%) and topography (10.3%) were less influential. We also predicted the probability of high-severity fire, were a fire to occur, using recent (2016) satellite imagery to characterize live fuel for a subset of ecoregions in which the model skill was deemed acceptable (n = 13). These ‘wall-to-wall’ gridded ecoregional maps provide relevant and up-to-date information for scientists and managers who are tasked with managing fuel and wildland fire. Lastly, we provide an example of the predicted likelihood of high-severity fire under moderate and extreme fire weather before and after fuel reduction treatments, thereby demonstrating how our framework and model predictions can potentially serve as a performance metric for land management agencies tasked with reducing hazardous fuel across large landscapes.

Fire mosaics and reptile conservation in a fire-prone region.

PubMed

Nimmo, D G; Kelly, L T; Spence-Bailey, L M; Watson, S J; Taylor, R S; Clarke, M F; Bennett, A F

2013-04-01

Fire influences the distribution of fauna in terrestrial biomes throughout the world. Use of fire to achieve a mosaic of vegetation in different stages of succession after burning (i.e., patch-mosaic burning) is a dominant conservation practice in many regions. Despite this, knowledge of how the spatial attributes of vegetation mosaics created by fire affect fauna is extremely scarce, and it is unclear what kind of mosaic land managers should aim to achieve. We selected 28 landscapes (each 12.6 km(2) ) that varied in the spatial extent and diversity of vegetation succession after fire in a 104,000 km(2) area in the semiarid region of southeastern Australia. We surveyed for reptiles at 280 sites nested within the 28 landscapes. The landscape-level occurrence of 9 of the 22 species modeled was associated with the spatial extent of vegetation age classes created by fire. Biogeographic context and the extent of a vegetation type influenced 7 and 4 species, respectively. No species were associated with the diversity of vegetation ages within a landscape. Negative relations between reptile occurrence and both extent of recently burned vegetation (≤10 years postfire, n = 6) and long unburned vegetation (>35 years postfire, n = 4) suggested that a coarse-grained mosaic of areas (e.g. >1000 ha) of midsuccessional vegetation (11-35 years postfire) may support the fire-sensitive reptile species we modeled. This age class coincides with a peak in spinifex cover, a keystone structure for reptiles in semiarid and arid Australia. Maintaining over the long term a coarse-grained mosaic of large areas of midsuccessional vegetation in mallee ecosystems will need to be balanced against the short-term negative effects of large fires on many reptile species and a documented preference by species from other taxonomic groups, particularly birds, for older vegetation. © 2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Application du processus de Markov sur les occurrences des précipitations journalières au Congo-Brazzaville

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samba, Gaston; Mpounza, Marcel

2005-11-01

This study deals with the daily precipitation occurrence during the rainy season in different locations in Congo-Brazzaville. The Markov-chain probability model has been used for defining probable dry and wet rainy sequences at each station, and transition probabilities between daily precipitations of two successive days. The main results are: in Congo, the dependence on the preceding day of the daily precipitations occurrence; the confirmation of two main climatic region (equatorial climate to the north and tropical wet to the south); the lack of coherence in the distribution of precipitations. To cite this article: G. Samba, M. Mpounza, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

The efficacy of fuel treatment in mitigating property loss during wildfires: Insights from analysis of the severity of the catastrophic fires in 2009 in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Price, Owen F; Bradstock, Ross A

2012-12-30

Treatment of fuel (e.g. prescribed fire, logging) in fire-prone ecosystems is done to reduce risks to people and their property but effects require quantification, particularly under severe weather conditions when the destructive potential of fires on human infrastructure is maximised. We analysed the relative effects of fuel age (i.e. indicative of the effectiveness of prescribed fire) and logging on remotely sensed (SPOT imagery) severity of fires which occurred in eucalypt forests in Victoria, Australia in 2009. These fires burned under the most severe weather conditions recorded in Australia and caused large losses of life and property. Statistical models of the probability of contrasting extremes of severity (crown fire versus fire confined to the understorey) were developed based on effects of fuel age, logging, weather, topography and forest type. Weather was the primary influence on severity, though it was reduced at low fuel ages in Moderate but not Catastrophic, Very High or Low fire-weather conditions. Probability of crown fires was higher in recently logged areas than in areas logged decades before, indicating likely ineffectiveness as a fuel treatment. The results suggest that recently burnt areas (up to 5-10 years) may reduce the intensity of the fire but not sufficiently to increase the chance of effective suppression under severe weather conditions. Since house loss was most likely under these conditions (67%), effects of prescribed burning across landscapes on house loss are likely to be small when weather conditions are severe. Fuel treatments need to be located close to houses in order to effectively mitigate risk of loss. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Day, Michelle A; McHugh, Charles W; Short, Karen; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Finney, Mark A; Calkin, David E

2014-12-01

Substantial investments in fuel management activities on national forests in the western US are part of a national strategy to reduce human and ecological losses from catastrophic wildfire and create fire resilient landscapes. Prioritizing these investments within and among national forests remains a challenge, partly because a comprehensive assessment that establishes the current wildfire risk and exposure does not exist, making it difficult to identify national priorities and target specific areas for fuel management. To gain a broader understanding of wildfire exposure in the national forest system, we analyzed an array of simulated and empirical data on wildfire activity and fuel treatment investments on the 82 western US national forests. We first summarized recent fire data to examine variation among the Forests in ignition frequency and burned area in relation to investments in fuel reduction treatments. We then used simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale spatial variation in burn probability and intensity. We also estimated the probability of a mega-fire event on each of the Forests, and the transmission of fires ignited on national forests to the surrounding urban interface. The analysis showed a good correspondence between recent area burned and predictions from the simulation models. The modeling also illustrated the magnitude of the variation in both burn probability and intensity among and within Forests. Simulated burn probabilities in most instances were lower than historical, reflecting fire exclusion on many national forests. Simulated wildfire transmission from national forests to the urban interface was highly variable among the Forests. We discuss how the results of the study can be used to prioritize investments in hazardous fuel reduction within a comprehensive multi-scale risk management framework. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Analyzing wildfire exposure on Sardinia, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A.; Alcasena, Fermin; Bacciu, Valentina; Duce, Pierpaolo; Munoz Lozano, Olga; Spano, Donatella

2014-05-01

We used simulation modeling based on the minimum travel time algorithm (MTT) to analyze wildfire exposure of key ecological, social and economic features on Sardinia, Italy. Sardinia is the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, and in the last fifty years experienced large and dramatic wildfires, which caused losses and threatened urban interfaces, forests and natural areas, and agricultural productions. Historical fires and environmental data for the period 1995-2009 were used as input to estimate fine scale burn probability, conditional flame length, and potential fire size in the study area. With this purpose, we simulated 100,000 wildfire events within the study area, randomly drawing from the observed frequency distribution of burn periods and wind directions for each fire. Estimates of burn probability, excluding non-burnable fuels, ranged from 0 to 1.92x10-3, with a mean value of 6.48x10-5. Overall, the outputs provided a quantitative assessment of wildfire exposure at the landscape scale and captured landscape properties of wildfire exposure. We then examined how the exposure profiles varied among and within selected features and assets located on the island. Spatial variation in modeled outputs resulted in a strong effect of fuel models, coupled with slope and weather. In particular, the combined effect of Mediterranean maquis, woodland areas and complex topography on flame length was relevant, mainly in north-east Sardinia, whereas areas with herbaceous fuels and flat areas were in general characterized by lower fire intensity but higher burn probability. The simulation modeling proposed in this work provides a quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk management activities, and represents one of the first applications of burn probability modeling to capture fire risk and exposure profiles in the Mediterranean basin.

Impact of Partial Time Delay on Temporal Dynamics of Watts-Strogatz Small-World Neuronal Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Hao; Sun, Xiaojuan

2017-06-01

In this paper, we mainly discuss effects of partial time delay on temporal dynamics of Watts-Strogatz (WS) small-world neuronal networks by controlling two parameters. One is the time delay τ and the other is the probability of partial time delay pdelay. Temporal dynamics of WS small-world neuronal networks are discussed with the aid of temporal coherence and mean firing rate. With the obtained simulation results, it is revealed that for small time delay τ, the probability pdelay could weaken temporal coherence and increase mean firing rate of neuronal networks, which indicates that it could improve neuronal firings of the neuronal networks while destroying firing regularity. For large time delay τ, temporal coherence and mean firing rate do not have great changes with respect to pdelay. Time delay τ always has great influence on both temporal coherence and mean firing rate no matter what is the value of pdelay. Moreover, with the analysis of spike trains and histograms of interspike intervals of neurons inside neuronal networks, it is found that the effects of partial time delays on temporal coherence and mean firing rate could be the result of locking between the period of neuronal firing activities and the value of time delay τ. In brief, partial time delay could have great influence on temporal dynamics of the neuronal networks.

Proceedings of the symposium on wildland fire 2000; April 27-30, 1987; South Lake Tahoe, California

Treesearch

James B. Davis; Robert E. Martin

1987-01-01

This "futuring" symposium addressed the possible, preferred, and probable status of wildland fire management and research in the year 2000 and beyond. Papers cover the fire protection needs of the public, management response to these perceived needs, and the research and education required to meet these needs. Also covered in a separate section are the...

A transdisciplinary approach to understanding the health effects of wildfire and prescribed fire smoke regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, G. J.; Bowman, D. M. J. S.; Price, O. F.; Henderson, S. B.; Johnston, F. H.

2016-12-01

Prescribed burning is used to reduce the occurrence, extent and severity of uncontrolled fires in many flammable landscapes. However, epidemiologic evidence of the human health impacts of landscape fire smoke emissions is shaping fire management practice through increasingly stringent environmental regulation and public health policy. An unresolved question, critical for sustainable fire management, concerns the comparative human health effects of smoke from wild and prescribed fires. Here we review current knowledge of the health effects of landscape fire emissions and consider the similarities and differences in smoke from wild and prescribed fires with respect to the typical combustion conditions and fuel properties, the quality and magnitude of air pollution emissions, and the potential for dispersion to large populations. We further examine the interactions between these considerations, and how they may shape the longer term smoke regimes to which populations are exposed. We identify numerous knowledge gaps and propose a conceptual framework that describes pathways to better understanding of the health trade-offs of prescribed and wildfire smoke regimes.

Laser-induced incandescence measurements of soot in turbulent pool fires.

PubMed

Frederickson, Kraig; Kearney, Sean P; Grasser, Thomas W

2011-02-01

We present what we believe to be the first application of the laser-induced incandescence (LII) technique to large-scale fire testing. The construction of an LII instrument for fire measurements is presented in detail. Soot volume fraction imaging from 2 m diameter pool fires burning blended toluene/methanol liquid fuels is demonstrated along with a detailed report of measurement uncertainty in the challenging pool fire environment. Our LII instrument relies upon remotely located laser, optical, and detection systems and the insertion of water-cooled, fiber-bundle-coupled collection optics into the fire plume. Calibration of the instrument was performed using an ethylene/air laminar diffusion flame produced by a Santoro-type burner, which allowed for the extraction of absolute soot volume fractions from the LII images. Single-laser-shot two-dimensional images of the soot layer structure are presented with very high volumetric spatial resolution of the order of 10(-5) cm3. Probability density functions of the soot volume fraction fluctuations are constructed from the large LII image ensembles. The results illustrate a highly intermittent soot fluctuation field with potentially large macroscale soot structures and clipped soot probability densities.

[The clinical economic analysis of the methods of ischemic heart disease diagnostics].

PubMed

Kalashnikov, V Iu; Mitriagina, S N; Syrkin, A L; Poltavskaia, M G; Sorokina, E G

2007-01-01

The clinical economical analysis was applied to assess the application of different techniques of ischemic heart disease diagnostics - the electro-cardiographic monitoring, the treadmill-testing, the stress-echo cardiographic with dobutamine, the single-photon computerized axial tomography with load, the multi-spiral computerized axial tomography with coronary arteries staining in patients with different initial probability of disease occurrence. In all groups, the best value of "cost-effectiveness" had the treadmill-test. The patients with low risk needed 17.4 rubles to precise the probability of ischemic heart disease occurrence at 1%. In the group with medium and high risk this indicator was 9.4 and 24.7 rubles correspondingly. It is concluded that to precise the probability of ischemic heart disease occurrence after tredmil-test in the patients with high probability it is appropriate to use the single-photon computerized axial tomography with load and in the case of patients with low probability the multi-spiral computerized axial tomography with coronary arteries staining.

Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Preisler, H.K.; Burgan, R.E.; Eidenshink, J.C.; Klaver, Jacqueline M.; Klaver, R.W.

2009-01-01

The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i) number of ignitions; (ii) number of fires above a given size; (iii) conditional probabilities of fires greater than a specified size, given ignition. As an illustration, we used the methods to study the skill of the Fire Potential Index an index that incorporates satellite and surface observations to map fire potential at a national scale in forecasting distributions of large fires. ?? 2009 IAWF.

Post-breeding habitat use by adult boreal toads (Bufo boreas boreas) after wildfire in Glacier National Park, USA

Treesearch

C. Gregory Guscio; Blake R. Hossack; Lisa A. Eby; Paul Stephen Corn

2008-01-01

Effects of wildfire on amphibians are complex, and some species may benefit from the severe disturbance of stand-replacing fire. Boreal Toads (Bufo boreas boreas) in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA increased in occurrence after fires in 2001 and 2003. We used radio telemetry to track adult B. boreas in a mosaic of terrestrial...

Both topography and climate affected forest and woodland burn severity in two regions of the western US, 1984 to 2006

Treesearch

Gregory K. Dillon; Zachery A. Holden; Penelope Morgan; Michael A. Crimmins; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Charles H. Luce

2011-01-01

Fire is a keystone process in many ecosystems of western North America. Severe fires kill and consume large amounts of above- and belowground biomass and affect soils, resulting in long-lasting consequences for vegetation, aquatic ecosystem productivity and diversity, and other ecosystem properties. We analyzed the occurrence of, and trends in, satellite-derived burn...

Occurrence and spread of nonnative invasive plants in stands treated with fire and/or mechanical treatments in the upper piedmont of South Carolina

Treesearch

Ross J. Phillips; Thomas A. Waldrop; Aaron D. Stottlemyer

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of nonnative invasive plant species and the expansion of existing nonnative plant populations provide challenges for land managers trying to achieve commercial and restoration goals. Some methods used to achieve these goals, e.g., prescribed fire and mechanical treatments, may result in disturbances that promote the establishment and spread of...