Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Wildfire risk and hazard: procedures for the first approximation

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Alan A. Ager; Julie Gilbertson-Day

2010-01-01

This report was designed to meet three broad goals: (1) evaluate wildfire hazard on Federal lands; (2) develop information useful in prioritizing where fuels treatments and mitigation measures might be proposed to address significant fire hazard and risk; and (3) develop risk-based performance measures to document the effectiveness of fire management programs. The...

Chapter 4. Predicting post-fire erosion and sedimentation risk on a landscape scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacDonald, L.H.; Sampson, R.; Brady, D.; Juarros, L.; Martin, Deborah

2000-01-01

Historic fire suppression efforts have increased the likelihood of large wildfires in much of the western U.S. Post-fire soil erosion and sedimentation risks are important concerns to resource managers. In this paper we develop and apply procedures to predict post-fire erosion and sedimentation risks on a pixel-, catchment-, and landscape-scale in central and western Colorado.Our model for predicting post-fire surface erosion risk is conceptually similar to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). One key addition is the incorporation of a hydrophobicity risk index (HY-RISK) based on vegetation type, predicted fire severity, and soil texture. Post-fire surface erosion risk was assessed for each 90-m pixel by combining HYRISK, slope, soil erodibility, and a factor representing the likely increase in soil wetness due to removal of the vegetation. Sedimentation risk was a simple function of stream gradient. Composite surface erosion and sedimentation risk indices were calculated and compared across the 72 catchments in the study area.When evaluated on a catchment scale, two-thirds of the catchments had relatively little post-fire erosion risk. Steeper catchments with higher fuel loadings typically had the highest post-fire surface erosion risk. These were generally located along the major north-south mountain chains and, to a lesser extent, in west-central Colorado. Sedimentation risks were usually highest in the eastern part of the study area where a higher proportion of streams had lower gradients. While data to validate the predicted erosion and sedimentation risks are lacking, the results appear reasonable and are consistent with our limited field observations. The models and analytic procedures can be readily adapted to other locations and should provide useful tools for planning and management at both the catchment and landscape scale.

A wildfire risk modeling system for evaluating landscape fuel treatment strategies

Treesearch

Alan Ager; Mark Finney; Andrew McMahan

2006-01-01

Despite a wealth of literature and models concerning wildfire risk, field units in Federal land management agencies lack a clear framework and operational tools to measure how risk might change from proposed fuel treatments. In an actuarial context, risk is defined as the expected value change from a fire, calculated as the product of (1) probability of a fire at a...

Evaluating Post-Fire Forest Resilience Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

Evaluating post-fire forest resilience using GIS and multi-criteria analysis: an example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece.

PubMed

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

PubMed

Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

2017-11-06

The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

Efficacy of a proactive health and safety risk management system in the fire service.

PubMed

Poplin, Gerald S; Griffin, Stephanie; Pollack Porter, Keshia; Mallett, Joshua; Hu, Chengcheng; Day-Nash, Virginia; Burgess, Jefferey L

2018-04-16

This study evaluated the efficacy of a fire department proactive risk management program aimed at reducing firefighter injuries and their associated costs. Injury data were collected for the intervention fire department and a contemporary control department. Workers' compensation claim frequency and costs were analyzed for the intervention fire department only. Total, exercise, patient transport, and fireground operations injury rates were calculated for both fire departments. There was a post-intervention average annual reduction in injuries (13%), workers' compensation injury claims (30%) and claims costs (21%). Median monthly injury rates comparing the post-intervention to the pre-intervention period did not show statistically significant changes in either the intervention or control fire department. Reduced workers' compensation claims and costs were observed following the risk management intervention, but changes in injury rates were not statistically significant.

Evaluating spatially explicit burn probabilities for strategic fire management planning

Treesearch

C. Miller; M.-A. Parisien; A. A. Ager; M. A. Finney

2008-01-01

Spatially explicit information on the probability of burning is necessary for virtually all strategic fire and fuels management planning activities, including conducting wildland fire risk assessments, optimizing fuel treatments, and prevention planning. Predictive models providing a reliable estimate of the annual likelihood of fire at each point on the landscape have...

A GIS-based approach for comparative analysis of potential fire risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ying; Hu, Lieqiu; Liu, Huiping

2007-06-01

Urban fires are one of the most important sources of property loss and human casualty and therefore it is necessary to assess the potential fire risk with consideration of urban community safety. Two evaluation models are proposed, both of which are integrated with GIS. One is the single factor model concerning the accessibility of fire passage and the other is grey clustering approach based on the multifactor system. In the latter model, fourteen factors are introduced and divided into four categories involving security management, evacuation facility, construction resistance and fire fighting capability. A case study on campus of Beijing Normal University is presented to express the potential risk assessment models in details. A comparative analysis of the two models is carried out to validate the accuracy. The results are approximately consistent with each other. Moreover, modeling with GIS promotes the efficiency the potential risk assessment.

Predicting fire effects on water quality: a perspective and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Hugh; Sheridan, Gary; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick

2017-04-01

Forest environments are a globally significant source of drinking water. Fire presents a credible threat to the supply of high quality water in many forested regions. The post-fire risk to water supplies depends on storm event characteristics, vegetation cover and fire-related changes in soil infiltration and erodibility modulated by landscape position. The resulting magnitude of runoff generation, erosion and constituent flux to streams and reservoirs determines the severity of water quality impacts in combination with the physical and chemical composition of the entrained material. Research to date suggests that most post-fire water quality impacts are due to large increases in the supply of particulates (fine-grained sediment and ash) and particle-associated chemical constituents. The largest water quality impacts result from high magnitude erosion events, including debris flow processes, which typically occur in response to short duration, high intensity storm events during the recovery period. Most research to date focuses on impacts on water quality after fire. However, information on potential water quality impacts is required prior to fire events for risk planning. Moreover, changes in climate and forest management (e.g. prescribed burning) that affect fire regimes may alter water quality risks. Therefore, prediction requires spatial-temporal representation of fire and rainfall regimes coupled with information on fire-related changes to soil hydrologic parameters. Recent work has applied such an approach by combining a fire spread model with historic fire weather data in a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify probabilities associated with fire and storm events generating debris flows and fine sediment influx to a reservoir located in Victoria, Australia. Prediction of fire effects on water quality would benefit from further research in several areas. First, more work on regional-scale stochastic modelling of intersecting fire and storm events with landscape zones of erosion vulnerability is required to support quantitative evaluation of water quality risk and the effect of future changes in climate and land management. Second, we underscore previous calls for characterisation of landscape-scale domains to support regionalisation of parameter sets derived from empirical studies. Recent examples include work identifying aridity as a control of hydro-geomorphic response to fire and the use of spectral-based indices to predict spatial heterogeneity in ash loadings. Third, information on post-fire erosion from colluvial or alluvial stores is needed to determine their significance as both sediment-contaminant sinks and sources. Such sediment stores may require explicit spatial representation in risk models for some environments and sediment tracing can be used to determine their relative importance as secondary sources. Fourth, increased dating of sediment archives could provide regional datasets of fire-related erosion event frequency. Presently, the lack of such data hinders evaluation of risk models linking fire and storm events to erosion and water quality impacts.

Fire interest and antisociality as risk factors in the severity and persistence of juvenile firesetting.

PubMed

MacKay, Sherri; Henderson, Joanna; Del Bove, Giannetta; Marton, Peter; Warling, Diane; Root, Carol

2006-09-01

In the DSM-IV-TR, firesetting is included as a criterion for the diagnoses of conduct disorder and pyromania. The link between firesetting and antisocial behavior is well established in the empirical literature. Although theoretical models of firesetting often include fire interest as a putative risk factor, there is little research on the role of fire interest in firesetting or on the construct of pyromania. The present study evaluated a sample of children and adolescents referred to an outpatient specialty program for juvenile firesetters with firesetting as the primary presenting problem. By assessing fire interest and antisocial behavior concurrently, the contribution of fire interest to firesetting after controlling for the role of conduct problems was evaluated. Results revealed that fire interest and antisocial behavior were significantly and positively correlated. Moreover, variations in fire interest added to the prediction of firesetting severity at assessment and firesetting recidivism at 18-month follow-up above and beyond what was predicted by antisociality alone. These findings have implications for an empirically derived taxonomy of pathological firesetting.

Review of methods for developing regional probabilistic risk assessments, part 2: modeling invasive plant, insect, and pathogen species

Treesearch

P. B. Woodbury; D. A. Weinstein

2010-01-01

We reviewed probabilistic regional risk assessment methodologies to identify the methods that are currently in use and are capable of estimating threats to ecosystems from fire and fuels, invasive species, and their interactions with stressors. In a companion chapter, we highlight methods useful for evaluating risks from fire. In this chapter, we highlight methods...

Wildfire Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M.; Calkin, D. E.; Hand, M. S.; Kreitler, J.

2014-12-01

In this presentation we address federal wildfire risk management largely through the lens of economics, targeting questions related to costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and tradeoffs. Beyond risks to resources and assets such as wildlife habitat, watersheds, and homes, wildfires present financial risk and budgetary instability for federal wildfire management agencies due to highly variable annual suppression costs. Despite its variability, the costs of wildfire management have continued to escalate and account for an ever-growing share of overall agency budgets, compromising abilities to attain other objectives related to forest health, recreation, timber management, etc. Trends associated with a changing climate and human expansion into fire-prone areas could lead to additional suppression costs in the future, only further highlighting the need for an ability to evaluate economic tradeoffs in investments across the wildfire management spectrum. Critically, these economic analyses need to accurately capture the complex spatial and stochastic aspects of wildfire, the inherent uncertainty associated with monetizing environmental impacts of wildfire, the costs and effectiveness of alternative management policies, and linkages between pre-fire investments and active incident management. Investing in hazardous fuels reduction and forest restoration in particular is a major policy lever for pre-fire risk mitigation, and will be a primary focus of our presentation. Evaluating alternative fuel management and suppression policies could provide opportunities for significant efficiency improvements in the development of risk-informed management fire management strategies. Better understanding tradeoffs of fire impacts and costs can help inform policy questions such as how much of the landscape to treat and how to balance investments in treating new areas versus maintaining previous investments. We will summarize current data needs, knowledge gaps, and other factors influencing research and development on this critically important topic. Specifically we will focus on how to embed simulation models within an economic framework, how to link fire models with models of wildfire management expenditures, how to evaluate alternative management policies, and how to measure cost-effectiveness.

Development of coarse-scale spatial data for wildland fire and fuel management

Treesearch

Kirsten M. Schmidt; James P. Menakis; Colin C. Hardy; Wendall J. Hann; David L. Bunnell

2002-01-01

We produced seven coarse-scale, 1-km2 resolution, spatial data layers for the conterminous United States to support national-level fire planning and risk assessments. Four of these layers were developed to evaluate ecological conditions and risk to ecosystem components: Potential Natural Vegetation Groups, a layer of climax vegetation types representing site...

Using GRACE-Derived Water and Moisture Products as a Predictive Tool for Fire Response in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousseau, N. J.; Jensen, D.; Zajic, B.; Rodell, M.; Reager, J. T., II

2015-12-01

Understanding the relationship between wildfire activity and soil moisture in the United States has been difficult to assess, with limited ability to determine areas that are at high risk. This limitation is largely due to complex environmental factors at play, especially as they relate to alternating periods of wet and dry conditions, and the lack of remotely-sensed products. Recent drought conditions and accompanying low Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) have led to disastrous wildfire outbreaks causing economic loss, property damage, and environmental degradation. Thus, developing a programmed toolset to assess the relationship between soil moisture, which contributes greatly to FMC and fire severity, can establish the framework for determining overall wildfire risk. To properly evaluate these parameters, we used data assimilated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and data from the Fire Program Analysis fire-occurrence database (FPA FOD) to determine the extent soil moisture affects fire activity. Through these datasets, we produced correlation and regression maps at a coarse resolution of 0.25 degrees for the contiguous United States. These fire-risk products and toolsets proved the viability of this methodology, allowing for the future incorporation of more GRACE-derived water parameters, MODIS vegetation indices, and other environmental datasets to refine the model for fire risk. Additionally, they will allow assessment to national-scale early fire management and provide responders with a predictive tool to better employ early decision-support to areas of high risk during regions' respective fire season(s).

Providing the Fire Risk Map in Forest Area Using a Geographically Weighted Regression Model with Gaussin Kernel and Modis Images, a Case Study: Golestan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah-Heydari pour, A.; Pahlavani, P.; Bigdeli, B.

2017-09-01

According to the industrialization of cities and the apparent increase in pollutants and greenhouse gases, the importance of forests as the natural lungs of the earth is felt more than ever to clean these pollutants. Annually, a large part of the forests is destroyed due to the lack of timely action during the fire. Knowledge about areas with a high-risk of fire and equipping these areas by constructing access routes and allocating the fire-fighting equipment can help to eliminate the destruction of the forest. In this research, the fire risk of region was forecasted and the risk map of that was provided using MODIS images by applying geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel and ordinary least squares over the effective parameters in forest fire including distance from residential areas, distance from the river, distance from the road, height, slope, aspect, soil type, land use, average temperature, wind speed, and rainfall. After the evaluation, it was found that the geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel forecasted 93.4% of the all fire points properly, however the ordinary least squares method could forecast properly only 66% of the fire points.

A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

Characterizing crown fuel distribution for conifers in the interior western United States

Treesearch

Seth Ex; Frederick W. Smith; Tara Keyser

2015-01-01

Canopy fire hazard evaluation is essential for prioritizing fuel treatments and for assessing potential risk to firefighters during suppression activities. Fire hazard is usually expressed as predicted potential fire behavior, which is sensitive to the methodology used to quantitatively describe fuel profiles: methodologies that assume that fuel is distributed...

Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

Cost-benefit analysis of passive fire protections in road LPG transportation.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2012-02-01

The cost-benefit evaluation of passive fire protection adoption in the road transport of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was investigated. In a previous study, mathematical simulations of real scale fire scenarios proved the effectiveness of passive fire protections in preventing the "fired" boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), thus providing a significant risk reduction. In the present study the economical aspects of the adoption of fire protections are analyzed and an approach to cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is proposed. The CBA model is based on the comparison of the risk reduction due to fire protections (expressed in monetary terms by the value of a statistical life) and the cost of the application of fire protections to a fleet of tankers. Different types of fire protections were considered, as well as the possibility to apply protections to the entire fleet or only to a part of it. The application of the proposed model to a real-life case study is presented and discussed. Results demonstrate that the adoption of passive fire protections on road tankers, though not compulsory in Europe, can be economically feasible, thus representing a concrete measure to achieve control of the "major hazard accidents" cited by the European legislation. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linn, Rodman Ray; Koo, Eunmo; Honig, Kristen Ann

2016-08-10

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautionsmore » that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con ® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is expected to arrive from.« less

Hillslope treatment effectiveness monitoring on Horseshoe 2 and Monument Fires

Treesearch

Carly Gibson; Ann Youberg; Marc Stamer

2013-01-01

Between February and July, 2011, over 360,000 acres burned across the Coronado National Forest during one of the most active fire seasons in recorded history. Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) Teams evaluated post-fire watershed conditions and prescribed treatments based on threats to known values at risk. Hillslope stabilization treatments were prescribed and...

Establishing Fire Safety Skills Using Behavioral Skills Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Houvouras, Andrew J., IV; Harvey, Mark T.

2014-01-01

The use of behavioral skills training (BST) to educate 3 adolescent boys on the risks of lighters and fire setting was evaluated using in situ assessment in a school setting. Two participants had a history of fire setting. After training, all participants adhered to established rules: (a) avoid a deactivated lighter, (b) leave the training area,…

Wildland fire potential: A tool for assessing wildfire risk and fuels management needs

Treesearch

Greg Dillon; James Menakis; Frank Fay

2015-01-01

Federal wildfire managers often want to know, over large landscapes, where wildfires are likely to occur and how intense they may be. To meet this need we developed a map that we call wildland fire potential (WFP) - a raster geospatial product that can help to inform evaluations of wildfire risk or prioritization of fuels management needs across very large spatial...

Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturtevant, Brian R.; Miranda, Brian R.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Wolter, Peter T.

2012-01-01

Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the relative strength of interactions between spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks and fire disturbances in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota (USA). Disturbance interactions were evaluated for two different scenarios: presettlement forests and fire regimes vs. contemporary forests and fire regimes. Forest composition under the contemporary scenario trended toward mixtures of deciduous species (primarily Betula papyrifera and Populus spp.) and shade-tolerant conifers (Picea mariana, Abies balsamea, Thuja occidentalis), with disturbances dominated by a combination of budworm defoliation and high-severity fires. The presettlement scenario retained comparatively more “big pines” (i.e., Pinus strobus, P. resinosa) and tamarack (L. laricina), and experienced less budworm disturbance and a comparatively less-severe fire regime. Spruce budworm disturbance decreased area burned and fire severity under both scenarios when averaged across the entire 300-year simulations. Contrary to past research, area burned and fire severity during outbreak decades were each similar to that observed in non-outbreak decades. Our analyses suggest budworm disturbances within forests of the BWCA have a comparatively weak effect on long-term forest composition due to a combination of characteristics. These include strict host specificity, fine-scaled patchiness created by defoliation damage, and advance regeneration of its primary host, balsam fir (A. balsamea) that allows its host to persist despite repeated disturbances. Understanding the nature of the three-way interaction between budworm, fire, and composition has important ramifications for both fire mitigation strategies and ecosystem restoration initiatives. We conclude that budworm disturbance can partially mitigate long-term future fire risk by periodically reducing live ladder fuel within the mixed forest types of the BWCA but will do little to reverse the compositional trends caused in part by reduced fire rotations.

Laboratory investigation of fire protection coatings for creosote-treated timber railroad bridges

Treesearch

Carol A. Clausen; Robert H. White; James P. Wacker; Stan T. Lebow; Mark A. Dietenberger; Samuel L. Zelinka; Nicole M. Stark

2014-01-01

As the incidence of timber railroad bridge fires increases, so has the need to develop protective measures to reduce the risk from accidental ignitions primarily caused by hot metal objects. Of the six barrier treatments evaluated in the laboratory for their ability to protect timbers from fires sourced with ignition from hot metal objects only one intumescent coating...

Evaluating potential changes in fire risk from Eucalyptus plantings in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Scott L. Goodrick; John A. Stanturf

2012-01-01

Renewed interest in short-rotation woody crops for bioenergy and bioproducts has prompted a reevaluation of the Eucalyptus species for the southern United States. One question that arises about the potential effects of introducing a nonnative species is what effect will there be on fire behavior. Our approximate answer based on modeling fire behavior...

Comparing production function models for wildfire risk analysis in the wildland-urban interface

Treesearch

D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2005-01-01

Wildfires create damages in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) that total hundreds of millions of dollars annually in the United States. Understanding how fires are produced in built-up areas near and within fire prone landscapes requires evaluating and quantifling the roles that humans play in fire regimes. We outline a typology of wildfire production functions (WPFs...

Risks and issues in fire safety on the Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert

1993-01-01

A fire in the inhabited portion of a spacecraft is a greatly feared hazard, but fire protection in space operations is complicated by two factors. First, the spacecraft cabin is an enclosed volume, which limits the resources for fire fighting and the options for crew escape. Second, an orbiting spacecraft experiences a balance of forces, creating a near-zero-gravity (microgravity) environment that profoundly affects the characteristics of fire initiation, spread, and suppression. The current Shuttle Orbiter is protected by a fire-detection and suppression system whose requirements are derived of necessity from accepted terrestrial and aircraft standards. While experience has shown that Shuttle fire safety is adequate, designers recognize that improved systems to respond specifically to microgravity fire characteristics are highly desirable. Innovative technology is particularly advisable for the Space Station, a forthcoming space community with a complex configuration and long-duration orbital missions, in which the effectiveness of current fire-protection systems is unpredictable. The development of risk assessments to evaluate the probabilities and consequences of fire incidents in spacecraft are briefly reviewed. It further discusses the important unresolved issues and needs for improved fire safety in the Space Station, including those of material selection, spacecraft atmospheres, fire detection, fire suppression, and post-fire restoration.

Texas Disasters II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Assist the Texas Forest Service in Mapping and Analyzing Fuel Loads and Phenology in Texas Grasslands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooke, Michael; Williams, Meredith; Fenn, Teresa

2016-01-01

The risk of severe wildfires in Texas has been related to weather phenomena such as climate change and recent urban expansion into wild land areas. During recent years, Texas wild land areas have experienced sequences of wet and dry years that have contributed to increased wildfire risk and frequency. To prevent and contain wildfires, the Texas Forest Service (TFS) is tasked with evaluating and reducing potential fire risk to better manage and distribute resources. This task is made more difficult due to the vast and varied landscape of Texas. The TFS assesses fire risk by understanding vegetative fuel types and fuel loads. To better assist the TFS, NASA Earth observations, including Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Specrtoradiometer (MODIS) data, were analyzed to produce maps of vegetation type and specific vegetation phenology as it related to potential wildfire fuel loads. Fuel maps from 2010-2011 and 2014-2015 fire seasons, created by the Texas Disasters I project, were used and provided alternating, complementary map indicators of wildfire risk in Texas. The TFS will utilize the end products and capabilities to evaluate and better understand wildfire risk across Texas.

Risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns during extreme cold weather.

PubMed

Ayoub, Aimina; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie

2017-10-01

Environmental factors are important predictors of fires, but no study has examined the association between outdoor temperature and fire-related burn injuries. We sought to investigate the relationship between extremely cold outdoor temperatures and the risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. We carried out a time-stratified case-crossover study of 2470 patients hospitalized for fire-related burn injuries during cold months between 1989 and 2014 in Quebec, Canada. The main exposure was the minimum outdoor temperature on the day of and the day before the burn. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between minimum temperature and fire-related burns, and assessed how associations varied across sex and age. Exposure to extreme cold temperature was associated with a significantly higher risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. Compared with 0°C, exposure to a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.22-1.87) for hospitalization for fire-related burns. The associations were somewhat stronger for women, youth, and the elderly. Compared with 0°C, a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR for fire-related burn hospitalization of 1.65 for women (95% CI 1.13-2.40), 1.60 for age < 25 years (95% CI 1.02-2.52), and 1.73 for age ≥ 65 years (95% CI 1.08-2.77). Extremely cold outdoor temperature is a risk factor for fire-related burns. Measures to prevent fires should be implemented prior to the winter season, and enhanced during extreme cold. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of The Great Escape: can an interactive computer game improve young children's fire safety knowledge and behaviors?

PubMed

Morrongiello, Barbara A; Schwebel, David C; Bell, Melissa; Stewart, Julia; Davis, Aaron L

2012-07-01

Fire is a leading cause of unintentional injury and, although young children are at particularly increased risk, there are very few evidence-based resources available to teach them fire safety knowledge and behaviors. Using a pre-post randomized design, the current study evaluated the effectiveness of a computer game (The Great Escape) for teaching fire safety information to young children (3.5-6 years). Using behavioral enactment procedures, children's knowledge and behaviors related to fire safety were compared to a control group of children before and after receiving the intervention. The results indicated significant improvements in knowledge and fire safety behaviors in the intervention group but not the control. Using computer games can be an effective way to promote young children's understanding of safety and how to react in different hazardous situations.

Gas-Centered Swirl Coaxial Liquid Injector Evaluations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohn, A. K.; Strakey, P. A.; Talley, D. G.

2005-01-01

Development of Liquid Rocket Engines is expensive. Extensive testing at large scales usually required. In order to verify engine lifetime, large number of tests required. Limited Resources available for development. Sub-scale cold-flow and hot-fire testing is extremely cost effective. Could be a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for long engine lifetime. Reduces overall costs and risk of large scale testing. Goal: Determine knowledge that can be gained from sub-scale cold-flow and hot-fire evaluations of LRE injectors. Determine relationships between cold-flow and hot-fire data.

Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China.

PubMed

Ye, Tao; Wang, Yao; Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

2017-01-01

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990-2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management.

Can Fire and Rescue Services and the National Health Service work together to improve the safety and wellbeing of vulnerable older people? Design of a proof of concept study.

PubMed

Lowton, Karen; Laybourne, Anne H; Whiting, David G; Martin, Finbarr C

2010-12-03

Older adults are at increased risk both of falling and of experiencing accidental domestic fire. In addition to advanced age, these adverse events share the risk factors of balance or mobility problems, cognitive impairment and socioeconomic deprivation. For both events, the consequences include significant injury and death, and considerable socioeconomic costs for the individual and informal carers, as well as for emergency services, health and social care agencies.Secondary prevention services for older people who have fallen or who are identifiable as being at high risk of falling include NHS Falls clinics, where a multidisciplinary team offers an individualised multifactorial targeted intervention including strength and balance exercise programmes, medication changes and home hazard modification. A similar preventative approach is employed by most Fire and Rescue Services who conduct Home Fire Safety Visits to assess and, if necessary, remedy domestic fire risk, fit free smoke alarms with instruction for use and maintenance, and plan an escape route. We propose that the similarity of population at risk, location, specific risk factors and the commonality of preventative approaches employed could offer net gains in terms of feasibility, effectiveness and acceptability if activities within these two preventative approaches were to be combined. This prospective proof of concept study, currently being conducted in two London boroughs, (Southwark and Lambeth) aims to reduce the incidence of both fires and falls in community-dwelling older adults. It comprises two concurrent 12-month interventions: the integration of 1) fall risk assessments into the Brigade's Home Fire Safety Visit and 2) fire risk assessments into Falls services by inviting older clinic attendees to book a Visit. Our primary objective is to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of these interventions. Furthermore, we are evaluating their acceptability and value to key stakeholders and services users. If our approach proves feasible and the risk assessment is both effective and acceptable, we envisage advocating a partnership model of working more broadly to fire and rescue services and health services in Britain, such that effective integration of preventative services for older people becomes routine for an ageing population.

Risk management of key issues of FPSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liping; Sun, Hai

2012-12-01

Risk analysis of key systems have become a growing topic late of because of the development of offshore structures. Equipment failures of offloading system and fire accidents were analyzed based on the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) features. Fault tree analysis (FTA), and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) methods were examined based on information already researched on modules of relex reliability studio (RRS). Equipment failures were also analyzed qualitatively by establishing a fault tree and Boolean structure function based on the shortage of failure cases, statistical data, and risk control measures examined. Failure modes of fire accident were classified according to the different areas of fire occurrences during the FMEA process, using risk priority number (RPN) methods to evaluate their severity rank. The qualitative analysis of FTA gave the basic insight of forming the failure modes of FPSO offloading, and the fire FMEA gave the priorities and suggested processes. The research has practical importance for the security analysis problems of FPSO.

Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a preliminary map of vegetation burn severity if desired. The next steps include mapping catchment boundaries, field traverses to collect data on soil burn severity and water repellency, identification of unstable hillslopes and channels, and inspection of values at risk from hazards such as debris flows or flooding. BARC (burned area reflectance classification) maps based on satellite imagery are prepared for some fires, although these are typically not available for several weeks. Our objective is to make a preliminary risk analysis report available about two weeks after the fire is contained. If high risks to public safety or infrastructure are identified, the risk analysis reports may make recommendations for mitigation measures to be considered; however, acting on these recommendations is the responsibility of local land managers, local government, or landowners. Mitigation measures for some fires have included engineering treatments to reduce the hydrologic impact of logging roads, protective structures such as dykes or berms, and straw mulching to reduce runoff and erosion on severely burned areas. The Terrace Mountain Fire, with burned 9000 hectares in the Okanagan Valley in 2009, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

Assessing the Role and Impact of Geospatial Data for Wildland Fire Management Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, E. A.; Lev, S. M.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Wildland and Fire Science and Technology Task Force Final Report, produced by the National Science and Technology Council, Committee on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability, Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, highlighted the increasing frequency of large wildfires and the growing demand for science to inform critical resource decisions to manage, mitigate, respond to, and recover from wildland fires. Federal spending on fire suppression from 2005-2015 has more than doubled despite policy changes that prioritize the mitigation of fire risks through the use of fuel treatments, prescribed fire, and management of naturally occurring wildfires to protect life and property. Fire suppression policies over the last century have created forests primed for severe fire, and in the face of a changing climate, the benefits of re-introducing fire into once fire-resilient ecosystems are clear. There are a range of complex factors and regional variation associated with wildland fire risk that complicate our understanding and effective management of this hazard. Data derived from Earth-observing (EO) systems and networks are a crucial input for managers when making decisions about fire suppression and fuel management. EO data can also be used to develop pre- and post-fire metrics that can aid in the evaluating the effectiveness of wildland fire management decisions. A value-tree method for mapping the role of EO systems and networks in delivering societal benefit through key Federal objectives related to wildland fire management will be presented. The value-tree methodology utilizes input from subject matter experts to assess the availability and usability of data and data products and to evaluate the impact of individual EO data inputs for achieving wildland fire management objectives. The results provide a qualitative assessment of the value of the data for the objectives described and identify critical gaps and continuity issues associated with improvements to and continuous delivery of societal benefit.

Moving beyond traditional fire management practices to better minimize community vulnerability to wildfire in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syphard, A. D.; Keeley, J. E.; Brennan, T. J.

2010-12-01

Wildfires are an important natural process in southern California, but they also present a major hazard for human life and property. The region leads the nation in fire-related losses, and since 2001, wildfires have damaged or destroyed more than 10,000 homes. As human ignitions have increased along with urban development and population growth, fire frequency has also surged, and most home losses occur in large fires when ignitions coincide with Santa Ana windstorms. As the region accommodates more growth in the future, the wildfire threat promises to continue. We will thus explore how a broader, more comprehensive approach to fire management could improve upon traditional approaches for reducing community vulnerability. The traditional approach to mitigating fire risk, in addition to fire suppression, has been to reduce fuel through construction of fuel breaks. Despite increasing expenditure on these treatments, there has been little empirical study of their role in controlling large fires. We will present the results of a study in which we constructed and analyzed a spatial database of fuel breaks in southern California national forests. Our objective was to better understand characteristics of fuel breaks that affect the behavior of large fires and to map where fires and fuel breaks most commonly intersect. We found that fires stopped at fuel breaks 22-47% of the time, depending on the forest, and the reason fires stopped was invariably related to firefighter access and management activities. Fire weather and fuel break condition were also important. The study illustrates the importance of strategic location of fuel breaks because they have been most effective where they provided access for firefighting activities. While fuel breaks have played a role in controlling wildfires at the Wildland Urban Interface, we are evaluating alternative approaches for reducing community vulnerability, including land use planning. Recent research shows that the amount and spatial arrangement of human infrastructure, such as roads and housing developments, strongly influences wildfire patterns. Therefore, we hypothesize that the spatial arrangement and location of housing development is likely to affect the susceptibility of lives and property to fire. In other words, potential for urban loss may be greatest at specific housing densities, spatial patterns of development, and locations of development. If these risk factors can be identified, mapped, and modeled, it is possible that vulnerability to wildfire could be substantially minimized through careful planning for future development - especially because future development will likely increase the region’s fire risk. To address these possibilities, we are evaluating past housing loss in relation to land use planning, in conjunction with other variables that influence fire patterns. We are also exploring alternative future scenarios to identify optimum land use planning strategies for minimizing fire risk.

At the nexus of fire, water and society

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Deborah

2016-01-01

The societal risks of water scarcity and water-quality impairment have received considerable attention, evidenced by recent analyses of these topics by the 2030 Water Resources Group, the United Nations and the World Economic Forum. What are the effects of fire on the predicted water scarcity and declines in water quality? Drinking water supplies for humans, the emphasis of this exploration, are derived from several land cover types, including forests, grasslands and peatlands, which are vulnerable to fire. In the last two decades, fires have affected the water supply catchments of Denver (CO) and other southwestern US cities, and four major Australian cities including Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide and Melbourne. In the same time period, several, though not all, national, regional and global water assessments have included fire in evaluations of the risks that affect water supplies. The objective of this discussion is to explore the nexus of fire, water and society with the hope that a more explicit understanding of fire effects on water supplies will encourage the incorporation of fire into future assessments of water supplies, into the pyrogeography conceptual framework and into planning efforts directed at water resiliency.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE PAGES

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; ...

2016-06-09

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

2016-06-01

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

Use of fire spread and hydrology models to target forest management on a municipal watershed

Treesearch

Anurag Srivastava; William J. Elliot; Joan Wu

2015-01-01

A small town relies on a forested watershed for its water supply. The forest is at risk for a wildfire. To reduce this risk, some of the watershed will be thinned followed by a prescribed burn. This paper reports on a study to evaluate the impact of such watershed disturbances on water yield. To target management activities, a fire spread model was applied to the...

Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cooke, William H.; Mostovoy, Georgy; Anantharaj, Valentine G

2012-01-01

Three fire risk indexes based on soil moisture estimates were applied to simulate wildfire probability over the southern part of Mississippi using the logistic regression approach. The fire indexes were retrieved from: (1) accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-E); (2) top 10 cm soil moisture content simulated by the Mosaic land surface model; and (3) the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI). The P-E, KBDI, and soil moisture based indexes were estimated from gridded atmospheric and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Normalized deviations of these indexes from the 31-year meanmore » (1980-2010) were fitted into the logistic regression model describing probability of wildfires occurrence as a function of the fire index. It was assumed that such normalization provides more robust and adequate description of temporal dynamics of soil moisture anomalies than the original (not normalized) set of indexes. The logistic model parameters were evaluated for 0.25 x0.25 latitude/longitude cells and for probability representing at least one fire event occurred during 5 consecutive days. A 23-year (1986-2008) forest fires record was used. Two periods were selected and examined (January mid June and mid September December). The application of the logistic model provides an overall good agreement between empirical/observed and model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire risk indexes based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI have the largest impact on the wildfire odds (increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire risk index during January mid June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid September-December) observed over 0.25 x0.25 cells located along the state of Mississippi Coast line. This result suggests a rather strong control of fire risk indexes on fire occurrence probability over this region.« less

At the nexus of fire, water and society

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The societal risks of water scarcity and water-quality impairment have received considerable attention, evidenced by recent analyses of these topics by the 2030 Water Resources Group, the United Nations and the World Economic Forum. What are the effects of fire on the predicted water scarcity and declines in water quality? Drinking water supplies for humans, the emphasis of this exploration, are derived from several land cover types, including forests, grasslands and peatlands, which are vulnerable to fire. In the last two decades, fires have affected the water supply catchments of Denver (CO) and other southwestern US cities, and four major Australian cities including Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide and Melbourne. In the same time period, several, though not all, national, regional and global water assessments have included fire in evaluations of the risks that affect water supplies. The objective of this discussion is to explore the nexus of fire, water and society with the hope that a more explicit understanding of fire effects on water supplies will encourage the incorporation of fire into future assessments of water supplies, into the pyrogeography conceptual framework and into planning efforts directed at water resiliency. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216505

Detection, Emission Estimation and Risk Prediction of Forest Fires in China Using Satellite Sensors and Simulation Models in the Past Three Decades—An Overview

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jia-Hua; Yao, Feng-Mei; Liu, Cheng; Yang, Li-Min; Boken, Vijendra K.

2011-01-01

Forest fires have major impact on ecosystems and greatly impact the amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. This paper presents an overview in the forest fire detection, emission estimation, and fire risk prediction in China using satellite imagery, climate data, and various simulation models over the past three decades. Since the 1980s, remotely-sensed data acquired by many satellites, such as NOAA/AVHRR, FY-series, MODIS, CBERS, and ENVISAT, have been widely utilized for detecting forest fire hot spots and burned areas in China. Some developed algorithms have been utilized for detecting the forest fire hot spots at a sub-pixel level. With respect to modeling the forest burning emission, a remote sensing data-driven Net Primary productivity (NPP) estimation model was developed for estimating forest biomass and fuel. In order to improve the forest fire risk modeling in China, real-time meteorological data, such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, have been used as the model input for improving prediction of forest fire occurrence and its behavior. Shortwave infrared (SWIR) and near infrared (NIR) channels of satellite sensors have been employed for detecting live fuel moisture content (FMC), and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used for evaluating the forest vegetation condition and its moisture status. PMID:21909297

Detection, emission estimation and risk prediction of forest fires in China using satellite sensors and simulation models in the past three decades--an overview.

PubMed

Zhang, Jia-Hua; Yao, Feng-Mei; Liu, Cheng; Yang, Li-Min; Boken, Vijendra K

2011-08-01

Forest fires have major impact on ecosystems and greatly impact the amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. This paper presents an overview in the forest fire detection, emission estimation, and fire risk prediction in China using satellite imagery, climate data, and various simulation models over the past three decades. Since the 1980s, remotely-sensed data acquired by many satellites, such as NOAA/AVHRR, FY-series, MODIS, CBERS, and ENVISAT, have been widely utilized for detecting forest fire hot spots and burned areas in China. Some developed algorithms have been utilized for detecting the forest fire hot spots at a sub-pixel level. With respect to modeling the forest burning emission, a remote sensing data-driven Net Primary productivity (NPP) estimation model was developed for estimating forest biomass and fuel. In order to improve the forest fire risk modeling in China, real-time meteorological data, such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, have been used as the model input for improving prediction of forest fire occurrence and its behavior. Shortwave infrared (SWIR) and near infrared (NIR) channels of satellite sensors have been employed for detecting live fuel moisture content (FMC), and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used for evaluating the forest vegetation condition and its moisture status.

Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China

PubMed Central

Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

2017-01-01

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990–2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management. PMID:28207837

Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

2007-01-01

Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

Mortality due to Vegetation Fire-Originated PM2.5 Exposure in Europe-Assessment for the Years 2005 and 2008.

PubMed

Kollanus, Virpi; Prank, Marje; Gens, Alexandra; Soares, Joana; Vira, Julius; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Sofiev, Mikhail; Salonen, Raimo O; Lanki, Timo

2017-01-01

Vegetation fires can release substantial quantities of fine particles (PM2.5), which are harmful to health. The fire smoke may be transported over long distances and can cause adverse health effects over wide areas. We aimed to assess annual mortality attributable to short-term exposures to vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in different regions of Europe. PM2.5 emissions from vegetation fires in Europe in 2005 and 2008 were evaluated based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data on fire radiative power. Atmospheric transport of the emissions was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) chemical transport model. Mortality impacts were estimated for 27 European countries based on a) modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations and b) population data, both presented in a 50 × 50 km2 spatial grid; c) an exposure-response function for short-term PM2.5 exposure and daily nonaccidental mortality; and d) country-level data for background mortality risk. In the 27 countries overall, an estimated 1,483 and 1,080 premature deaths were attributable to the vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Estimated impacts were highest in southern and eastern Europe. However, all countries were affected by fire-originated PM2.5, and even the lower concentrations in western and northern Europe contributed substantially (~ 30%) to the overall estimate of attributable mortality. Our assessment suggests that air pollution caused by PM2.5 released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health in Europe. Moreover, the risk can be expected to increase in the future as climate change proceeds. This factor should be taken into consideration when evaluating the overall health and socioeconomic impacts of these fires. Citation: Kollanus V, Prank M, Gens A, Soares J, Vira J, Kukkonen J, Sofiev M, Salonen RO, Lanki T. 2017. Mortality due to vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 exposure in Europe-assessment for the years 2005 and 2008. Environ Health Perspect 125:30-37; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP194.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

PIEPHO, M.G.

Four bounding accidents postulated for the K West Basin integrated water treatment system are evaluated against applicable risk evaluation guidelines. The accidents are a spray leak during fuel retrieval, spray leak during backflushing a hydrogen explosion, and a fire breaching filter vessel and enclosure. Event trees and accident probabilities are estimated. In all cases, the unmitigated dose consequences are below the risk evaluation guidelines.

Health and environmental effects of refuse derived fuel (RDF) production and RDF/coal co-firing technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Toole, J.J.; Wessels, T.E.; Lynch, J.F.

1981-10-01

Six facilities, representing the scope of different co-firing techniques with their associated RDF production systems were reviewed in detail for combustion equipment, firing modes, emission control systems, residue handling/disposal, and effluent wastewater treatment. These facilities encompass all currently operational or soon to be operational co-firing plants and associated RDF production systems. Occupational health and safety risks for these plants were evaluated on the basis of fatal and nonfatal accidents and disease arising from the respective fuel cycles, coal and RDF. Occupational risks include exposure to pathogenic organisms in the workplace. Unusual events that are life threatening in the RDF processingmore » industry (e.g., explosions) are also discussed and remedial and safety measures reviewed. 80 refs., 4 figs., 30 tabs.« less

A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

2010-01-01

This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

Can Fire and Rescue Services and the National Health Service work together to improve the safety and wellbeing of vulnerable older people? Design of a proof of concept study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Older adults are at increased risk both of falling and of experiencing accidental domestic fire. In addition to advanced age, these adverse events share the risk factors of balance or mobility problems, cognitive impairment and socioeconomic deprivation. For both events, the consequences include significant injury and death, and considerable socioeconomic costs for the individual and informal carers, as well as for emergency services, health and social care agencies. Secondary prevention services for older people who have fallen or who are identifiable as being at high risk of falling include NHS Falls clinics, where a multidisciplinary team offers an individualised multifactorial targeted intervention including strength and balance exercise programmes, medication changes and home hazard modification. A similar preventative approach is employed by most Fire and Rescue Services who conduct Home Fire Safety Visits to assess and, if necessary, remedy domestic fire risk, fit free smoke alarms with instruction for use and maintenance, and plan an escape route. We propose that the similarity of population at risk, location, specific risk factors and the commonality of preventative approaches employed could offer net gains in terms of feasibility, effectiveness and acceptability if activities within these two preventative approaches were to be combined. Methods/Design This prospective proof of concept study, currently being conducted in two London boroughs, (Southwark and Lambeth) aims to reduce the incidence of both fires and falls in community-dwelling older adults. It comprises two concurrent 12-month interventions: the integration of 1) fall risk assessments into the Brigade's Home Fire Safety Visit and 2) fire risk assessments into Falls services by inviting older clinic attendees to book a Visit. Our primary objective is to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of these interventions. Furthermore, we are evaluating their acceptability and value to key stakeholders and services users. Discussion If our approach proves feasible and the risk assessment is both effective and acceptable, we envisage advocating a partnership model of working more broadly to fire and rescue services and health services in Britain, such that effective integration of preventative services for older people becomes routine for an ageing population. PMID:21129185

Predicting fire impact from plant traits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoof, Cathelijne; Ottink, Roos; Zylstra, Philip; Cornelissen, Hans; Fernandes, Paulo

2017-04-01

Fire can considerably increase the landscape's vulnerability to flooding and erosion, which is in part caused by fire-induced soil heating, vegetation removal and resulting hydrological changes. While the magnitude of these fire effects and ecosystem responses is frequently studied, there is still little attention for the fundamental mechanisms that drive these changes. One example is on the effect of plants: while it is known that plants can alter the fire environment, there is a major knowledge gap regarding the fundamental mechanisms by which vegetation mediates fire impact on soil and hydrology. Essential to identifying these mechanisms is consideration of the effects of vegetation on flammability and fire behaviour, which are studied both in ecology and traditional fire science. Here we discuss the challenges of integrating these very distinct fields and the potential benefits of this integration for improved understanding of fire effects on soil and hydrology. We furthermore present results of a study in which we assessed the spatial drivers controlling the proportion of live and dead fuel in a natural park in northern Portugal, and evaluated the impacts on the spatial variability of fire behaviour and potential soil heating using BehavePlus modeling. Better understanding of the role of (spatial variability in) plant traits on fire impact can facilitate the development of risk maps to ultimately help predict and mitigate fire risk and impact across landscapes.

Simulating wildfire spread behavior between two NASA Active Fire data timeframes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, B.; Hodza, P.; Xu, C.; Minckley, T. A.

2017-12-01

Although NASA's Active Fire dataset is considered valuable in mapping the spatial distribution and extent of wildfires across the world, the data is only available at approximately 12-hour time intervals, creating uncertainties and risks associated with fire spread and behavior between the two Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Satellite (VIIRS) data collection timeframes. Our study seeks to close the information gap for the United States by using the latest Active Fire data collected for instance around 0130 hours as an ignition source and critical inputs to a wildfire model by uniquely incorporating forecasted and real-time weather conditions for predicting fire perimeter at the next 12 hour reporting time (i.e. around 1330 hours). The model ingests highly dynamic variables such as fuel moisture, temperature, relative humidity, wind among others, and prompts a Monte Carlo simulation exercise that uses a varying range of possible values for evaluating all possible wildfire behaviors. The Monte Carlo simulation implemented in this model provides a measure of the relative wildfire risk levels at various locations based on the number of times those sites are intersected by simulated fire perimeters. Model calibration is achieved using data at next reporting time (i.e. after 12 hours) to enhance the predictive quality at further time steps. While initial results indicate that the calibrated model can predict the overall geometry and direction of wildland fire spread, the model seems to over-predict the sizes of most fire perimeters possibly due to unaccounted fire suppression activities. Nonetheless, the results of this study show great promise in aiding wildland fire tracking, fighting and risk management.

Fuels Management-How to Measure Success: Conference Proceedings

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews; Bret W. Butler

2006-01-01

Fuels management programs are designed to reduce risks to communities and to improve and maintain ecosystem health. The International Association of Wildland Fire initiated the 1st Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference to address development, implementation, and evaluation of these programs. The focus was on how to measure success. Over 500 participants from several...

Surgical fires in laser laryngeal surgery: are we safe enough?

PubMed

Roy, Soham; Smith, Lee P

2015-01-01

Laser surgery of the larynx and airway remains high risk for the formation of operating room fire. Traditional methods of fire prevention have included use of "laser safe" tubes, inflation of a protective cuff with saline, and wet pledgets to protect the endotracheal tube from laser strikes. We tested a mechanical model of laser laryngeal surgery to evaluate the fire risk. Mechanical model. Laboratory. An intubation mannequin was positioned for suspension microlaryngoscopy. A Laser-Shield II cuffed endotracheal tube was placed through the larynx and the cuff inflated using saline. Wet pledgets covered the inflated cuff. A CO2 laser created an inadvertent cuff strike at varying oxygen concentrations. Risk reduction measures were implemented to discern any notable change in the outcome after fire. At 100% FiO2 an immediate fire with sustained flame was created and at 40% FiO2 a near immediate sustained flame was created. At 29% FiO2, a small nonsustained flame was noted. At room air, no fire was created. There was no discernible difference in the severity of laryngeal damage after the fire occurred whether the tube was immediately pulled from the mannequin or if saline was poured down the airway as a first response. While "laser safe" tubes provide a layer of protection against fires, they are not fire proof. Inadvertent cuff perforation may result in fire formation in low-level oxygen enriched environments. Placement of wet pledgets do not provide absolute protection. Endotracheal tube (ETT) cuffs should be placed distally well away from an inadvertent laser strike while maintaining the minimum supplemental oxygen necessary. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2014.

A Rapidly Prototyped Vegetation Dryness Index Evaluated for Wildfire Risk Assessment at Stennis Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Kenton; Graham, William; Prados, Don; Spruce, Joseph

2007-01-01

MVDI, which effectively involves the differencing of NDMI and NDVI, appears to display increased noise that is consistent with a differencing technique. This effect masks finer variations in vegetation moisture, preventing MVDI from fulfilling the requirement of giving decision makers insight into spatial variation of fire risk. MVDI shows dependencies on land cover and phenology which also argue against its use as a fire risk proxy in an area of diverse and fragmented land covers. The conclusion of the rapid prototyping effort is that MVDI should not be implemented for SSC decision support.

Evaluating the Efficiency of Air Shower in Removing Lead from Army Combat Uniform Swatches Loaded with Gunshot Residue

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-25

well-known toxicant and the exposure on indoor firing ranges presents a health risk to both range employees and shooters. Contaminated clothing... firing ranges have employed a new control – air shower (AS), although its effectiveness in this particular application has not been examined. The... firing lead- containing ammunition inside a sealed chamber and allowing the gunshot residue to settle on swatches placed inside the chamber. The

At the nexus of fire, water and society.

PubMed

Martin, Deborah A

2016-06-05

The societal risks of water scarcity and water-quality impairment have received considerable attention, evidenced by recent analyses of these topics by the 2030 Water Resources Group, the United Nations and the World Economic Forum. What are the effects of fire on the predicted water scarcity and declines in water quality? Drinking water supplies for humans, the emphasis of this exploration, are derived from several land cover types, including forests, grasslands and peatlands, which are vulnerable to fire. In the last two decades, fires have affected the water supply catchments of Denver (CO) and other southwestern US cities, and four major Australian cities including Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide and Melbourne. In the same time period, several, though not all, national, regional and global water assessments have included fire in evaluations of the risks that affect water supplies. The objective of this discussion is to explore the nexus of fire, water and society with the hope that a more explicit understanding of fire effects on water supplies will encourage the incorporation of fire into future assessments of water supplies, into the pyrogeography conceptual framework and into planning efforts directed at water resiliency.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

2012-04-01

Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However, due to limitations in data availability, this approach of environmental accounting is not fully implemented yet. Keywords: fire vulnerability, damage assessment, land cover restoration, long-term fire risk, European scale

Combined Hydrologic (AGWA-KINEROS2) and Hydraulic (HEC2) Modeling for Post-Fire Runoff and Inundation Risk Assessment through a Set of Python Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, J. E.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, D. P.; Burns, I. S.

2016-12-01

Wildfires in the Western United States can alter landscapes by removing vegetation and changing soil properties. These altered landscapes produce more runoff than pre-fire landscapes which can lead to post-fire flooding that can damage infrastructure and impair natural resources. Resources, structures, historical artifacts and others that could be impacted by increased runoff are considered values at risk. .The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) allows users to quickly set up and execute the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion model (KINEROS2 or K2) in the ESRI ArcMap environment. The AGWA-K2 workflow leverages the visualization capabilities of GIS to facilitate evaluation of rapid watershed assessments for post-fire planning efforts. High relative change in peak discharge, as simulated by K2, provides a visual and numeric indicator to investigate those channels in the watershed that should be evaluated for more detailed analysis, especially if values at risk are within or near that channel. Modeling inundation extent along a channel would provide more specific guidance about risk along a channel. HEC-2 and HEC-RAS can be used for hydraulic modeling efforts at the reach and river system scale. These models have been used to address flood boundaries and, accordingly, flood risk. However, data collection and organization for hydraulic models can be time consuming and therefore a combined hydrologic-hydraulic modeling approach is not often employed for rapid assessments. A simplified approach could streamline this process and provide managers with a simple workflow and tool to perform a quick risk assessment for a single reach. By focusing on a single reach highlighted by large relative change in peak discharge, data collection efforts can be minimized and the hydraulic computations can be performed to supplement risk analysis. The incorporation of hydraulic analysis through a suite of Python tools (as outlined by HEC-2) with AGWA-K2 will allow more rapid applications of combined hydrologic-hydraulic modeling. This combined modeling approach is built in the ESRI ArcGIS application to enable rapid model preparation, execution and result visualization for risk assessment in post-fire environments.

The influence of fire exposure on austenitic stainless steel for pressure vessel fitness-for-service assessment: Experimental research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Shu, Wenhua; Zuo, Yantian

2017-04-01

The austenitic stainless steels are widely applied to pressure vessel manufacturing. The fire accident risk exists in almost all the industrial chemical plants. It is necessary to make safety evaluation on the chemical equipment including pressure vessels after fire. Therefore, the present research was conducted on the influences of fire exposure testing under different thermal conditions on the mechanical performance evolution of S30408 austenitic stainless steel for pressure vessel equipment. The metallurgical analysis described typical appearances in micro-structure observed in the material suffered by fire exposure. Moreover, the quantitative degradation of mechanical properties was investigated. The material thermal degradation mechanism and fitness-for-service assessment process of fire damage were further discussed.

Utilizing NASA EOS Data for Fire Management in el Departmento del Valle del Cauco, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenton, J. C.; Bledsoe, N.; Alabdouli, K.

2012-12-01

In the last few years, fire incidence in Colombian wild areas has increased, damaging pristine forests into savannas and sterile lands. Fire poses a significant threat to biodiversity, rural communities and established infrastructure. These events issue an urgent need to address this problem. NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) can play a significant role in the monitoring fires and natural disasters. SERVIR, the Regional Visualization and Monitoring Network, constitutes a platform for the observation, forecasting and modeling of environmental processes in Central America. A project called "The GIS for fire management in Guatemala (SIGMA-I)" has been already conducted to address the same problem in another Latin American country, Guatemala. SIGMA-I was developed by the Inter-agency work among the National protected areas council (CONAP), National Forestry Institution (INAB), the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction / National Forest Fire Prevention and Control System (CONRED/SIPECIF), and the Ministry of the Environment and National Resources (MARN) in Guatemala under the guidance and assistance of SERVIR. With SIGMA-I as an example, we proposed to conduct a similar project for the country of Colombia. First, a pilot study in the area of the watershed of the Cali River, Colombia was conducted to ensure that the data was available and that the maps and models were accurate. The proposed study will investigate the technical resources required: 1.) A fire map with a compilation of ignition data (hot spots) utilizing Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products MOD14 and MYD14 2.) A map of fire scars derived from medium resolution satellite data (ASTER) during the period 2003-2011 for the entire country, and a map of fire scar recurrence and statistics derived from the datasets produced. 3.) A pattern analysis and ignition cause model derived from a matrix of variables statistically exploring the demographic and environmental factors of fire risk, such as land surface temperature, precipitation, and NDVI .4.) A dynamic fire risk evaluation able to generate a dynamic map of ignition risk based on statistical analysis factors. This study aims to research integrating MODIS, Landsat and ASTER data along with in-situ data on environmental parameters from the Corporation of the Cauca Valley River (CVC) along with other data on social, economical and cultural variables obtained by researchers of the Wild Fire Observatory (OCIF) from the "Universidad Autónoma de Occidente" in order to create an ignition cause model, dynamic fire risk evaluation system and compile any and all geospatial data generated for the region. In this way the research will help predict and forecast fire vulnerabilities in the region. The team undertook this project through SERVIR with the guidance of the scientist, Victor Hugo Ramos, who was the leader and principal investigator on the SIGMA-I.

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

Unraveling the Complexity of Wildland Urban Interface Fires.

PubMed

Mahmoud, Hussam; Chulahwat, Akshat

2018-06-18

Recent wildland urban interface fires have demonstrated the unrelenting destructive nature of these events and have called for an urgent need to address the problem. The Wildfire paradox reinforces the ideology that forest fires are inevitable and are actually beneficial; therefore focus should to be shifted towards minimizing potential losses to communities. This requires the development of vulnerability-based frameworks that can be used to provide holistic understanding of risk. In this study, we devise a probabilistic approach for quantifying community vulnerability to wildfires by applying concepts of graph theory. A directed graph for community in question is developed to model wildfire inside a community by incorporating different fire propagation modes. The model accounts for relevant community-specific characteristics including wind conditions, community layout, individual structural features, and the surrounding wildland vegetation. We calibrate the framework to study the infamous 1991 Oakland fire in an attempt to unravel the complexity of community fires. We use traditional centrality measures to identify critical behavior patterns and to evaluate the effect of fire mitigation strategies. Unlike current practice, the results are shown to be community-specific with substantial dependency of risk on meteorological conditions, environmental factors, and community characteristics and layout.

Self-reported cardiac risks and interest in risk modification among volunteer firefighters: a survey-based study.

PubMed

Scanlon, Patrick; Ablah, Elizabeth

2008-12-01

Coronary heart disease causes approximately 45% of firefighter deaths annually. Although firefighters have clinically significant cardiac risks, a paucity of research and data exists. To evaluate firefighters' cardiac risk factors as well as their motivation to resolve these risk factors. During a 3-month period, volunteer firefighters representing the 79 fire departments serving Nassau and Suffolk counties in Long Island, NY, were asked to complete a nonvalidated, 19-item questionnaire regarding their health habits, medical history, and demographics. A total of 730 surveys were returned among a potential study population of 20,590 volunteer firefighters. More than three-quarters of respondents met the criteria for being overweight or obese, and nearly 40% reported having high blood pressure, high cholesterol, or both. Most respondents expressed at least some interest in attending a fire department-sponsored health lecture and participating in a fitness program. Firefighters expressed desire to learn more about risk factor modifications and have fire departments take a more active role in helping firefighters improve their health. The effectiveness of resources and intervention programs should be assessed.

Forest fire risk zonation mapping using remote sensing technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Sunil; Arora, M. K.

2006-12-01

Forest fires cause major losses to forest cover and disturb the ecological balance in our region. Rise in temperature during summer season causing increased dryness, increased activity of human beings in the forest areas, and the type of forest cover in the Garhwal Himalayas are some of the reasons that lead to forest fires. Therefore, generation of forest fire risk maps becomes necessary so that preventive measures can be taken at appropriate time. These risk maps shall indicate the zonation of the areas which are in very high, high, medium and low risk zones with regard to forest fire in the region. In this paper, an attempt has been made to generate the forest fire risk maps based on remote sensing data and other geographical variables responsible for the occurrence of fire. These include altitude, temperature and soil variations. Key thematic data layers pertaining to these variables have been generated using various techniques. A rule-based approach has been used and implemented in GIS environment to estimate fuel load and fuel index leading to the derivation of fire risk zonation index and subsequently to fire risk zonation maps. The fire risk maps thus generated have been validated on the ground for forest types as well as for forest fire risk areas. These maps would help the state forest departments in prioritizing their strategy for combating forest fires particularly during the fire seasons.

Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

Treesearch

Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

2010-01-01

We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

New Technology for the Fire Attire

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Although little can be done to reduce the risks of firefighting, something can be done to curb the injuries and fatalities. This is the goal of Project FIRES, a program jointly sponsored by NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency's U.S. Fire Administration with technical management provided by Marshall Space Flight Center. Project FIRES (Firefighter's Integrated Response Equipment System) involves applications of advanced materials and design concepts, derived from Apollo to update existing gear which does not adequately protect against many of the hazards encountered in fire suppression activities. A major focus of the effort involves application to the FIRES ensemble of lightweight, fire-resistant, heat-protective materials originally developed for use in astronauts' space suits or in spacecraft components which require thermal protection. Data from the fourteen municipal fire departments participating in the field evaluation will form a basis for development of new nationwide protective ensemble students.

Development of a model to predict ash transport and water pollution risk in fire-affected environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neris, Jonay; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Robichaud, Peter R.

2017-04-01

An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

First application of the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion risk in fire-affected volcanic areas in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neris, Jonay; Robichaud, Peter R.; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Notario del Pino, Jesús S.; Lado, Marcos

2017-04-01

An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

Carbon Dioxide as a Fire Suppressant: Examining the Risks

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has the statutory authority to set phase-out dates for ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and to evaluate potential risks posed by proposed ODS substitutes.

Modeling Payload Stowage Impacts on Fire Risks On-Board the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anton, Kellie e.; Brown, Patrick F.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this presentation is to determine the risks of fire on-board the ISS due to non-standard stowage. ISS stowage is constantly being reexamined for optimality. Non-standard stowage involves stowing items outside of rack drawers, and fire risk is a key concern and is heavily mitigated. A Methodology is needed to account for fire risk due to non-standard stowage to capture the risk. The contents include: 1) Fire Risk Background; 2) General Assumptions; 3) Modeling Techniques; 4) Event Sequence Diagram (ESD); 5) Qualitative Fire Analysis; 6) Sample Qualitative Results for Fire Risk; 7) Qualitative Stowage Analysis; 8) Sample Qualitative Results for Non-Standard Stowage; and 9) Quantitative Analysis Basic Event Data.

Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA.

Treesearch

B.C. Wales; L.H. Suring; M.A. Hemstrom

2007-01-01

Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior Western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and...

Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: Assessment of risk to the Lockheed Model L-1011 commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniledes, J.; Koch, J. R.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers (CF) from fires on commercial transport aircraft incorporating composite materials was assessed. Data are developed to evaluate the potential for CF damage to electrical and electronic equipment, assess the cost risk, and evaluate the hazard to continued operation. The subjects covered include identification of susceptible equipments, determination of infiltration transfer functions, analysis of airport operations, calculation of probabilities of equipment failures, assessment of the cost risk, and evaluation of the hazard to continued operation. The results show the risks associated with CF contamination are negligible through 1993.

Does crash risk increase when emergency vehicles are driving with lights and sirens?

PubMed

Missikpode, Celestin; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Young, Tracy; Hamann, Cara

2018-04-01

Emergency vehicles, such as police, ambulances, and fire vehicles, need to arrive at the scene of emergencies as quickly as possible, and thus they often travel in emergency mode - using their lights and sirens and often bypassing traffic signals. We examined whether travelling in emergency mode increased crash risk among police, ambulance and fire vehicles. We conducted a quasi-induced exposure analysis using data from the Iowa Crash Database for the period of 2005 through 2013. The data are maintained by the Iowa Department of Transportation (IADOT), Office of Driver Services (ODS) and includes all investigating police officer's reports of motor vehicle crashes. The quasi-induced exposure method is an approach to calculate crash risk in the absence of exposure data using vehicles without a contributing cause (did not contribute to the crash) as a proxy for the baseline driving population. From 2005 - 2013, police vehicles were involved in 2406 crashes and ambulances and fire vehicles were involved in 528 crashes. Police vehicles were 1.8 times more likely to crash while driving in emergency mode than usual mode; this was a statistically significant increase. Ambulance and fire vehicles were not more likely to crash in emergency mode compared with usual mode. For police, other factors that contributed to crash risk included gender, age, icy/snowy roads, unpaved roads, and intersections. For ambulances and fire vehicles, other factors that contributed to crash risk included gender, age, weekends, icy/snowy roads and urban locations. Crash risk increased when police vehicles drove with lights and sirens but did not increase for ambulance and fire vehicles. Further research is necessary to develop and evaluate strategies to mitigate crash risk among police vehicles. Cultural approaches which prioritize transportation safety in conjunction with reaching the scene as quickly as possible may be warranted. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fire behavior and risk analysis in spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert; Sacksteder, Kurt R.

1988-01-01

Practical risk management for present and future spacecraft, including space stations, involves the optimization of residual risks balanced by the spacecraft operational, technological, and economic limitations. Spacecraft fire safety is approached through three strategies, in order of risk: (1) control of fire-causing elements, through exclusion of flammable materials for example; (2) response to incipient fires through detection and alarm; and (3) recovery of normal conditions through extinguishment and cleanup. Present understanding of combustion in low gravity is that, compared to normal gravity behavior, fire hazards may be reduced by the absence of buoyant gas flows yet at the same time increased by ventilation flows and hot particle expulsion. This paper discusses the application of low-gravity combustion knowledge and appropriate aircraft analogies to fire detection, fire fighting, and fire-safety decisions for eventual fire-risk management and optimization in spacecraft.

Factors controlling seedling germination after fire in Mediterranean gorse shrublands. Implications for fire prescription.

PubMed

De Luis, M; Raventós, J; González-Hidalgo, J C

2005-07-01

In Western Mediterranean areas, fires are frequent in forests established on old croplands where woody resprouting species are scarce and post-fire regeneration is limited to obligate-seeder species, such as Mediterranean gorse (Ulex parviflorus), that accumulate a great deal of fine dry fuel, increasing the risk of other severe fires. Under these conditions, fuel control techniques are required in order to prevent fires of high intensity and severity and the subsequent economic and ecological damage. Prescribed fires present an alternative to fuel control, and recent studies demonstrate that, under optimum climatic conditions, fire-line intensity values fall within the limits of those recommended for fire prescription. However, a better understanding of the consequences of fire on the regeneration of vegetation is needed in order to evaluate the suitability of prescribed fires as a technique for fuel reduction in Mediterranean gorse ecosystems. This paper analyses the factors controlling seedling germination after fire to make an evaluation from an ecological perspective of whether fire prescription is a suitable technique for fuel control in mature Mediterranean gorse shrublands. The results show that small differences in the composition of vegetation play a decisive role in fire behaviour, and have a decisive influence on the system's capacity for regeneration. Fire severity is low in mixed Mediterranean gorse communities with a low continuity of dead fine fuel (including Cistus sp., Rosmarinus sp., etc.) and fire creates a wide range of microhabitats where seedling emergence is high. In contrast, where U. parviflorus is more dominant, fire severity is higher and the regeneration of vegetation could be hindered. Our conclusions suggest that detailed studies of the composition of plant communities are required in order to decide whether prescribed burning should be applied.

Risk-based Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Issacci, F.; Paulos, T.; Jones, S.; Paxton, K.; Paul, M.

1992-01-01

Viewgraphs on risk-based spacecraft fire safety experiments are presented. Spacecraft fire risk can never be reduced to a zero probability. Probabilistic risk assessment is a tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

Using Earth Observations to Assess the Socioeconomic Impact of Human Decision Making during the Suppression of a Wildland Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, V. V.; Kochanski, A.; Mandel, J.; Herr, V.; Schranz, S.

2016-12-01

This presentation will discuss the fire simulation system based on WRF-SFIRE and assimilation of satellite Active Fires detection to estimate the socio-economic impact of Earth observations and fire behavior modeling for the 2011 Las Conchas fire in New Mexico. Multiple scenarios will be developed with the WRF-SFIRE simulation based on value of information (VOI) provided by retired incident commanders, whose decision inputs will steer scenario development and simulation. The scenarios will differ according to the Earth observations available through NASA and then deemed useful to incident commanders. Each scenario will be evaluated in terms of its socio-economic impact as specified by NASA (2012) for its wildland fire program. This presentation is a proposed supplement to NASA grant NNX13AH59G Wildland Fire Behavior and Risk Forecasting, Sher Schranz, PI.

Theory-Based Cartographic Risk Model Development and Application for Home Fire Safety.

PubMed

Furmanek, Stephen; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol

There is a gap in the use of predictive risk models to identify areas at risk for home fires and burn injury. The purpose of this study was to describe the creation, validation, and application of such a model using a sample from an intervention study with parents of newborns in Jefferson County, KY, as an example. Performed was a literature search to identify risk factors for home fires and burn injury in the target population. Obtained from the American Community Survey at the census tract level and synthesized to create a predictive cartographic risk model was risk factor data. Model validation was performed through correlation, regression, and Moran's I with fire incidence data from open records. Independent samples t-tests were used to examine the model in relation to geocoded participant addresses. Participant risk level for fire rate was determined and proximity to fire station service areas and hospitals. The model showed high and severe risk clustering in the northwest section of the county. Strongly correlated with fire rate was modeled risk; the best predictive model for fire risk contained home value (low), race (black), and non high school graduates. Applying the model to the intervention sample, the majority of participants were at lower risk and mostly within service areas closest to a fire department and hospital. Cartographic risk models were useful in identifying areas at risk and analyzing participant risk level. The methods outlined in this study are generalizable to other public health issues.

Restoring Southern Pine Forests Ecosystems: Plant Community Response to Mechanical Midstory History Reduction and Prescribed Fire on Sandhills at Fort Benning Georgia

Treesearch

Dale Brockway; Kenneth W. Outcalt; Becky L. Estes

2003-01-01

Developed during periods of fire exclusion, dense midstory vegetation, that reduces understory plant diversity (competitive shading) and increases the risk of damaging Wildfire (fuel ladder from ground to canopy), has impeded restoration efforts to safely reintroduce prescribed burning in southern pine ecosystems. Our study evaluated the effects of midstory reduction...

Market impacts of a multiyear mechanical fuel treatment program in the U.S.

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Karen L. Abt; Robert J. Jr. Huggett

2008-01-01

We describe a two-stage model of global log and chip markets that evaluates the spatial and temporal economic effects of government- subsidized fire-related mechanical fuel treatment programs in the U.S.West and South. The first stage is a goal program that allocates subsidies according to fire risk and location priorities, given a budget and a feasible, market-...

75 FR 40845 - Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at Structure Fires

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-14

... NIOSH 141-A] Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at Structure Fires AGENCY: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) of the Centers for... publication entitled ``Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at...

Urban fire risk control: House design, upgrading and replanning

PubMed Central

Mbuya, Elinorata Celestine

2018-01-01

Urbanisation leads to house densification, a phenomenon experienced in both planned and unplanned settlements in cities in developing countries. Such densification limits fire brigade access into settlements, thereby aggravating fire disaster risks. In this article, we assess the fire exposure and risks in residences in informal areas of Mchikichini ward, in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania. We rely on interviews of residents and government officials to obtain background on the occurrence and causes of fire accidents, policy provisions and regulations, and experiences with fire outbreaks and coping strategies, as well as on observations and measurements of house transformations, spatial quality and indoor real life. Our findings suggest that fire risks arise from both inappropriate structural characteristics and unsound behavioural practices. This includes unsafe electric practices by residents, poor capacity of residents to fight fires once started, limited access to structures by firefighting equipment because of flouting of planning regulations and inadequate awareness of local government leaders of the magnitude of fire risks. Potential changes to reduce fire risks in the settlement include the installation of firefighting systems, restriction of cooking to designated spaces, use of safer cooking energy sources and lighting means, improvements of vehicle access routes to neighbourhoods, capacity building at the grass root level and the establishment of community-based fire risk management.

The analysis of factors of management of safety of critical information infrastructure with use of dynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trostyansky, S. N.; Kalach, A. V.; Lavlinsky, V. V.; Lankin, O. V.

2018-03-01

Based on the analysis of the dynamic model of panel data by region, including fire statistics for surveillance sites and statistics of a set of regional socio-economic indicators, as well as the time of rapid response of the state fire service to fires, the probability of fires in the surveillance sites and the risk of human death in The result of such fires from the values of the corresponding indicators for the previous year, a set of regional social-economics factors, as well as regional indicators time rapid response of the state fire service in the fire. The results obtained are consistent with the results of the application to the fire risks of the model of a rational offender. Estimation of the economic equivalent of human life from data on surveillance objects for Russia, calculated on the basis of the analysis of the presented dynamic model of fire risks, correctly agrees with the known literary data. The results obtained on the basis of the econometric approach to fire risks allow us to forecast fire risks at the supervisory sites in the regions of Russia and to develop management solutions to minimize such risks.

Multi-temporal analysis of forest fire risk driven by environmental and socio-economic change in the Republic of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. J.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, G. S.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

Analysis of forest fire risk is important in disaster risk reduction (DRR) since it provides a way to manage forest fires. Climate and socio-economic factors are important in the cause of forest fires, and the role of the socio-economic factors in prevention and preparedness of forest fires is increasing. As most of the forest fires in the Republic of Korea are highly related to human activities, both environmental factors and socio-economic factors were considered into the analysis of forest fire risk. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential geographical distribution and probability of forest fire occurrence spatially and temporally from 1980s to the 2010s in the Republic of Korea by multi-temporal analysis and analyze the relationship between forest fires and the factors. As a result of the risk analysis, there was an overall increasing trend in forest fire risk from the 1980s to the 2000s, and socio-economic factors were highly correlated with the occurrence of forest fires. The study demonstrates that the socio-economic factors considered as human activities can increase the occurrence of forest fires. The result implies that managing human activities are significant to prevent forest fire occurrence. In addition, timely forest fire prevention and control is necessary as drought index such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) also affected forest fires.

Potential health impacts from range fires at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willians, G.P.; Hermes, A.M.; Policastro, A.J.

1998-03-01

This study uses atmospheric dispersion computer models to evaluate the potential for human health impacts from exposure to contaminants that could be dispersed by fires on the testing ranges at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. It was designed as a screening study and does not estimate actual human health risks. Considered are five contaminants possibly present in the soil and vegetation from past human activities at APG--lead, arsenic, trichloroethylene (TCE), depleted uranium (DU), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT); and two chemical warfare agents that could be released from unexploded ordnance rounds heated in a range fire--mustard and phosgene. For comparison, dispersion of twomore » naturally occurring compounds that could be released by burning of uncontaminated vegetation--vinyl acetate and 2-furaldehyde--is also examined. Data from previous studies on soil contamination at APG are used in conjunction with conservative estimates about plant uptake of contaminants, atmospheric conditions, and size and frequency of range fires at APG to estimate dispersion and possible human exposure. The results are compared with US Environmental Protection Agency action levels. The comparisons indicate that for all of the anthropogenic contaminants except arsenic and mustard, exposure levels would be at least an order of magnitude lower than the corresponding action levels. Because of the compoundingly conservative nature of the assumptions made, they conclude that the potential for significant human health risks from range fires is low. The authors recommend that future efforts be directed at fire management and control, rather than at conducting additional studies to more accurately estimate actual human health risk from range fires.« less

Halogenated flame retardants: do the fire safety benefits justify the risks?

PubMed

Shaw, Susan D; Blum, Arlene; Weber, Roland; Kannan, Kurunthachalam; Rich, David; Lucas, Donald; Koshland, Catherine P; Dobraca, Dina; Hanson, Sarah; Birnbaum, Linda S

2010-01-01

Since the 1970s, an increasing number of regulations have expanded the use of brominated and chlorinated flame retardants. Many of these chemicals are now recognized as global contaminants and are associated with adverse health effects in animals and humans, including endocrine and thyroid disruption, immunotoxicity, reproductive toxicity, cancer, and adverse effects on fetal and child development and neurologic function. Some flame retardants such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) have been banned or voluntarily phased out by manufacturers because of their environmental persistence and toxicity, only to be replaced by other organohalogens of unknown toxicity. Despite restrictions on further production in some countries, consumer products previously treated with banned retardants are still in use and continue to release toxic chemicals into the environment, and the worldwide use of organohalogen retardants continues to increase. This paper examines major uses and known toxic effects of commonly-used organohalogen flame retardants, replacements for those that have been phased out, their combustion by-products, and their effectiveness at reducing fire hazard. Policy and other solutions to maintain fire safety while reducing toxicity are suggested. The major conclusions are: (1) Flammability regulations can cause greater adverse environmental and health impacts than fire safety benefits. (2) The current options for end-of-life disposal of products treated with organohalogens retardants are problematic. (3) Life-cycle analyses evaluating benefits and risks should consider the health and environmental effects of the chemicals, as well as their fire safety impacts. (4) Most fire deaths and most fire injuries result from inhaling carbon monoxide, irritant gases, and soot. The incorporation of organohalogens can increase the yield of these toxic by-products during combustion. (5) Fire-safe cigarettes, fire-safe candles, child-resistant lighters, sprinklers, and smoke detectors can prevent fires without the potential adverse effects of flame retardant chemicals. (6) Alternatives to organohalogen flame retardant chemicals include using less flammable materials, design changes, and safer chemicals. To date, before evaluating their health and environmental impacts, many flame retardant chemicals have been produced and used, resulting in high levels of human exposure. As a growing literature continues to find adverse impacts from such chemicals, a more systematic approach to their regulation is needed. Before implementing new flammability standards, decision-makers should evaluate the potential fire safety benefit versus the health and environmental impacts of the chemicals, materials, or technologies likely to be used to meet the standard. Reducing the use of toxic or untested flame retardant chemicals in consumer products can protect human and animal health and the global environment without compromising fire safety.

Economic efficiency and risk character of fire management programs, Northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Thomas J. Mills; Frederick W. Bratten

1988-01-01

Economic efficiency and risk have long been considered during the selection of fire management programs and the design of fire management polices. The risk considerations was largely subjective, however, and efficiency has only recently been calculated for selected portions of the fire management program. The highly stochastic behavior of the fire system and the high...

Application of remote sensing and geographical information system in mapping forest fire risk zone at Bhadra wildlife sanctuary, India.

PubMed

Sowmya, S V; Somashekar, R K

2010-11-01

Fire is the most spectacular natural disturbance that affects the forest ecosystem composition and diversity. Fire has a devastating effect on the landscape and its impact is felt at every level of the ecosystem and it is possible to map forest fire risk zone and thereby minimize the frequency of fire. There is a need for supranational approaches that analyze wide scenarios of factors involved and global fire effects. Fires can be monitored and analyzed over large areas in a timely and cost effective manner by using satellite imagery. Also Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used effectively to demarcate the fire risk zone map. Bhadra wildlife Sanctuary located in Kamataka, India was selected for this study. Vegetation, slope, distance from roads, settlements parameters were derived for a study area using topographic maps and field information. The Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS)-based forest fire risk model of the study area appeared to be highly compatible with the actual fire-affected sites. The temporal satellite data from 1989 to2006 have been analyzed to map the burnt areas. These classes were weighted according to their influence on forest fire. Four categories of fire risk regions such as Low, Moderate, High and Very high fire intensity zones were identified. It is predicted that around 10.31% of the area falls undermoderate risk zone.

Perceived risk of home fire and escape plans in rural households.

PubMed

Yang, Jingzhen; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Zwerling, Craig; Lundell, John

2006-01-01

Homes in rural areas have a higher fire death rate. Although successful exit from a home fire could greatly reduce fire-related deaths and injuries, little is known about factors associated with behaviors of developing and practicing an escape plan. Between July 2003 and June 2004, a baseline survey was administered, in person, to 691 rural households. Information collected included a history of previous home fire, perceived risk of home fire, existing smoke alarms and their working status, and home fire safety practices, as well as home and occupant characteristics. The association of residents' perceived risk of home fire and fire escape plans was assessed. Forty-two percent of rural households reported having a fire escape plan. Of the households with a plan, less than two thirds (56.9%) discussed or practiced the plan. Households with children were more likely to develop and practice a fire escape plan. Households with an elderly or disabled person were less likely to develop or practice the plan. Compared to respondents who perceived low or very low risk of home fire, those who perceived a high or very high risk had 3.5 times greater odds of having a fire escape plan and 5.5 times greater odds of discussion or practicing their plan. Increasing awareness of the potential risk of home fires may help occupants develop and practice home fire escape plans. In order to reduce fire deaths and injuries, different strategies need to be developed for those households in which the occupants lack the ability to escape.

Establishing a proactive safety and health risk management system in the fire service.

PubMed

Poplin, Gerald S; Pollack, Keshia M; Griffin, Stephanie; Day-Nash, Virginia; Peate, Wayne F; Nied, Ed; Gulotta, John; Burgess, Jefferey L

2015-04-19

Formalized risk management (RM) is an internationally accepted process for reducing hazards in the workplace, with defined steps including hazard scoping, risk assessment, and implementation of controls, all within an iterative process. While required for all industry in the European Union and widely used elsewhere, the United States maintains a compliance-based regulatory structure, rather than one based on systematic, risk-based methodologies. Firefighting is a hazardous profession, with high injury, illness, and fatality rates compared with other occupations, and implementation of RM programs has the potential to greatly improve firefighter safety and health; however, no descriptions of RM implementation are in the peer-reviewed literature for the North American fire service. In this paper we describe the steps used to design and implement the RM process in a moderately-sized fire department, with particular focus on prioritizing and managing injury hazards during patient transport, fireground, and physical exercise procedures. Hazard scoping and formalized risk assessments are described, in addition to the identification of participatory-led injury control strategies. Process evaluation methods were conducted to primarily assess the feasibility of voluntarily instituting the RM approach within the fire service setting. The RM process was well accepted by the fire department and led to development of 45 hazard specific-interventions. Qualitative data documenting the implementation of the RM process revealed that participants emphasized the: value of the RM process, especially the participatory bottom-up approach; usefulness of the RM process for breaking down tasks to identify potential risks; and potential of RM for reducing firefighter injury. As implemented, this risk-based approach used to identify and manage occupational hazards and risks was successful and is deemed feasible for U.S. (and other) fire services. While several barriers and challenges do exist in the implementation of any intervention such as this, recommendations for adopting the process are provided. Additional work will be performed to determine the effectiveness of select controls strategies that were implemented; however participants throughout the organizational structure perceived the RM process to be of high utility while researchers also found the process improved the awareness and engagement in actively enhancing worker safety and health.

Health hazard evaluation report HETA 98-0152-2729, Wolfeboro Public Safety Building, Wolfeboro, New Hampshire

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sylvain, D.; Echt, A.

On March 17, 1998, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) received a Health Hazard Evaluation request (HHE) from the New Hampshire Department of Labor to conduct an evaluation of diesel exhaust exposure at the Wolfeboro Public Safety Building, in Wolfeboro, New Hampshire. The request indicated that Fire and Police personnel were exposed to diesel exhaust from fire apparatus. Asthmatic bronchitis was listed as a health problem resulting from this exposure. On June 23, 1998, NIOSH investigators, accompanied by an industrial hygienist from the New Hampshire Bureau of Health Risk Assessment, conducted an industrial hygiene evaluation at themore » Wolfeboro Public Safety Building.« less

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

PubMed Central

Legg, Colin J.

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2. PMID:27833814

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires.

PubMed

Davies, G Matt; Legg, Colin J

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

Ten Years of Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery following the 2007 Zaca Fire using Landsat Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallett, J. K. E.; Miller, D.; Roberts, D. A.

2017-12-01

Forest fires play a key role in shaping eco-systems. The risk to vegetation depends on the fire regime, fuel conditions (age and amount), fire temperature, and physiological characteristics such as bark thickness and stem diameter. The 2007 Zaca Fire (24 kilometers NE of Buellton, Santa Barbara County, California) burned 826.4 km2 over the course of 2 months. In this study, we used a time series of Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager imagery, to evaluate plant burn severity and post fire recovery as defined into classes of above average recovery, normal recovery, and below average recovery. We spectrally unmixed the images into green vegetation (GV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), soil surface (SOIL), and ash with a spectral library developed using Constrained Reference Endmember Selection (CRES). We delineated the fire perimeter using the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) and evaluated changes in this index and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index through time. The results showed an immediate decline in GV and NPV fractions, with a rise in soil and ash fractions directly following the fire, with a slow recovery in GV fraction and a loss of bare soil cover. The was a sharp increase in the ash fraction following the fire and gradual decrease in the year after. Most areas have recovered as of 2017, with prominent recovery in the center of the burn scar and reduced recovery in areas to the south. These results indicate how post-fire vegetation varies based on initial burn severity and pre-fire GV and NPV fractions.

Real time forest fire warning and forest fire risk zoning: a Vietnamese case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, T.; Pham, D.; Phung, T.; Ha, A.; Paschke, M.

2016-12-01

Forest fire occurs seriously in Vietnam and has been considered as one of the major causes of forest lost and degradation. Several studies of forest fire risk warning were conducted using Modified Nesterov Index (MNI) but remaining shortcomings and inaccurate predictions that needs to be urgently improved. In our study, several important topographic and social factors such as aspect, slope, elevation, distance to residential areas and road system were considered as "permanent" factors while meteorological data were updated hourly using near-real-time (NRT) remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS Terra/Aqua and TRMM) for the prediction and warning of fire. Due to the limited number of weather stations in Vietnam, data from all active stations (i.e. 178) were used with the satellite data to calibrate and upscale meteorological variables. These data with finer resolution were then used to generate MNI. The only significant "permanent" factors were selected as input variables based on the correlation coefficients that computed from multi-variable regression among true fire-burning (collected from 1/2007) and its spatial characteristics. These coefficients also used to suggest appropriate weight for computing forest fire risk (FR) model. Forest fire risk model was calculated from the MNI and the selected factors using fuzzy regression models (FRMs) and GIS based multi-criteria analysis. By this approach, the FR was slightly modified from MNI by the integrated use of various factors in our fire warning and prediction model. Multifactor-based maps of forest fire risk zone were generated from classifying FR into three potential danger levels. Fire risk maps were displayed using webgis technology that is easy for managing data and extracting reports. Reported fire-burnings thereafter have been used as true values for validating the forest fire risk. Fire probability has strong relationship with potential danger levels (varied from 5.3% to 53.8%) indicating that the higher potential risk, the more chance of fire happen. By adding spatial factors to continuous daily updated remote sensing based meteo-data, results are valuable for both mapping forest fire risk zones in short and long-term and real time fire warning in Vietnam. Key words: Near-real-time, forest fire warning, fuzzy regression model, remote sensing.

Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy.

PubMed

Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Alcasena, Fermin J; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Spano, Donatella

2015-01-01

In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September. Peak burn probability and flame length were observed in late July. We found that patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity were mainly related to spatiotemporal variation in ignition locations, fuel moisture, and wind vectors. Our modeling approach allowed consideration of historical patterns of winds, ignition locations, and live and dead fuel moisture on fire exposure factors. The methodology proposed can be useful for analyzing potential wildfire risk and effects at landscape scale, evaluating historical changes and future trends in wildfire exposure, as well as for addressing and informing fuel management and risk mitigation issues.

Using GIS to evaluate a fire safety program in North Carolina.

PubMed

Dudley, Thomas; Creppage, Kathleen; Shanahan, Meghan; Proescholdbell, Scott

2013-10-01

Evaluating program impact is a critical aspect of public health. Utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a novel way to evaluate programs which try to reduce residential fire injuries and deaths. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the application of GIS within the evaluation of a smoke alarm installation program in North Carolina. This approach incorporates national fire incident data which, when linked with program data, provides a clear depiction of the 10 years impact of the Get Alarmed, NC! program and estimates the number of potential lives saved. We overlapped Get Alarmed, NC! program installation data with national information on fires using GIS to identify homes that experienced a fire after an alarm was installed and calculated potential lives saved based on program documentation and average housing occupancy. We found that using GIS was an efficient and quick way to match addresses from two distinct sources. From this approach we estimated that between 221 and 384 residents were potentially saved due to alarms installed in their homes by Get Alarmed, NC!. Compared with other program evaluations that require intensive and costly participant telephone surveys and/or in-person interviews, the GIS approach is inexpensive, quick, and can easily analyze large disparate datasets. In addition, it can be used to help target the areas most at risk from the onset. These benefits suggest that by incorporating previously unutilized data, the GIS approach has the potential for broader applications within public health program evaluation.

Post-fire Water Quality in the Western United States: Understanding and Predicting Short and Long-term Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogue, T. S.; Rust, A.

2016-12-01

Fire frequency is increasing across mid-elevation forests, especially in the Northern Rockies, Sierra Nevada, southern Cascades, as well as the coastal ranges in California and southern Oregon. Numerous studies have noted increased discharge, floods and debris flows after wildfire. More recent work also shows increased water yield during dry seasons for up to ten years post-fire. However, few studies have evaluated long-term water quality response in fire-impacted watersheds. The current presentation will overview recent development of an extensive database on post-fire water quality response across the western U.S. A range of water quality parameters were gathered from 271 burned watersheds through local, state and federal agencies. Short and long-term response was evaluated for watersheds with at least 5 years of pre-fire data. Over 30 watersheds showed significant increases in NO3-, NO2-, NH3, and total nitrogen loading in the initial five years after fire and remained elevated ten years after fire. The burn severity influenced the degree of nitrogen response, where more severely burned watersheds showed higher nitrogen loading than less severely burned watersheds. Dissolved and total phosphorous showed significant increases in 32 watersheds for the first five years after fire. Dissolved ions such as calcium, magnesium, and chloride were also exported from over 32 watersheds, primarily during the first five years after fire, with the majority of impacted watersheds returning to pre-fire water quality conditions after ten years. Ongoing work includes evaluating key determinants that drive short and long-term response and developing predictive models for post-fire water quality. Watersheds impacted by wildfire are known to pose significant risks for downstream communities. Understanding short and long-term water quality change that can impact regional water supplies is critical for establishing potential treatment priorities and alternative source planning.

Mortality due to Vegetation Fire–Originated PM2.5 Exposure in Europe—Assessment for the Years 2005 and 2008

PubMed Central

Kollanus, Virpi; Prank, Marje; Gens, Alexandra; Soares, Joana; Vira, Julius; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Sofiev, Mikhail; Salonen, Raimo O.; Lanki, Timo

2016-01-01

Background: Vegetation fires can release substantial quantities of fine particles (PM2.5), which are harmful to health. The fire smoke may be transported over long distances and can cause adverse health effects over wide areas. Objective: We aimed to assess annual mortality attributable to short-term exposures to vegetation fire–originated PM2.5 in different regions of Europe. Methods: PM2.5 emissions from vegetation fires in Europe in 2005 and 2008 were evaluated based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data on fire radiative power. Atmospheric transport of the emissions was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) chemical transport model. Mortality impacts were estimated for 27 European countries based on a) modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations and b) population data, both presented in a 50 × 50 km2 spatial grid; c) an exposure–response function for short-term PM2.5 exposure and daily nonaccidental mortality; and d) country-level data for background mortality risk. Results: In the 27 countries overall, an estimated 1,483 and 1,080 premature deaths were attributable to the vegetation fire–originated PM2.5 in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Estimated impacts were highest in southern and eastern Europe. However, all countries were affected by fire-originated PM2.5, and even the lower concentrations in western and northern Europe contributed substantially (~ 30%) to the overall estimate of attributable mortality. Conclusions: Our assessment suggests that air pollution caused by PM2.5 released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health in Europe. Moreover, the risk can be expected to increase in the future as climate change proceeds. This factor should be taken into consideration when evaluating the overall health and socioeconomic impacts of these fires. Citation: Kollanus V, Prank M, Gens A, Soares J, Vira J, Kukkonen J, Sofiev M, Salonen RO, Lanki T. 2017. Mortality due to vegetation fire–originated PM2.5 exposure in Europe—assessment for the years 2005 and 2008. Environ Health Perspect 125:30–37; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP194 PMID:27472655

Review of methods for developing probabilistic risk assessments

Treesearch

D. A. Weinstein; P.B. Woodbury

2010-01-01

We describe methodologies currently in use or those under development containing features for estimating fire occurrence risk assessment. We describe two major categories of fire risk assessment tools: those that predict fire under current conditions, assuming that vegetation, climate, and the interactions between them and fire remain relatively similar to their...

Domains of Risk in the Developmental Continuity of Fire Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarty, Carolyn A.; McMahon, Robert J.

2005-01-01

Juvenile fire setting is a serious, dangerous, and costly behavior. The majority of research examining youth fire setting has been cross-sectional. We sought to examine early risk attributes that could differentiate fire setters from non-fire setters, in addition to examining their association with the developmental continuity of fire-setting…

Predicting hydrological and erosional risks in fire-affected watersheds: recent advances and research gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, João Pedro; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2017-04-01

Models can be invaluable tools to assess and manage the impacts of forest fires on hydrological and erosion processes. Immediately after fires, models can be used to identify priority areas for post-fire interventions or assess the risks of flooding and downstream contamination. In the long term, models can be used to evaluate the long-term implications of a fire regime for soil protection, surface water quality and potential management risks, or determine how changes to fire regimes, caused e.g. by climate change, can impact soil and water quality. However, several challenges make post-fire modelling particularly difficult: • Fires change vegetation cover and properties, such as by changing soil water repellency or by adding an ash layer over the soil; these processes, however are not described in currently used models, so that existing models need to be modified and tested. • Vegetation and soils recover with time since fire, changing important model parameters, so that the recovery processes themselves also need to be simulated, including the role of post-fire interventions. • During the window of vegetation and soil disturbance, particular weather conditions, such as the occurrence of severe droughts or extreme rainfall events, can have a large impact on the amount of runoff and erosion produced in burnt areas, so that models that smooth out these peak responses and rather simulate "long-term" average processes are less useful. • While existing models can simulate reasonable well slope-scale runoff generation and associated sediment losses and their catchment-scale routing, few models can accommodate the role of the ash layer or its transport by overland flow, in spite of its importance for soil fertility losses and downstream contamination. This presentation will provide an overview of the importance of post-fire hydrological and erosion modelling as well as of the challenges it faces and of recent efforts made to overcome these challenges. It will illustrate these challenges with two examples: probabilistic approaches to simulate the impact of different vegetation regrowth and post-fire climate combinations on runoff and erosion; and model developments for post-fire soil water repellency with different levels of complexity. It will also present an inventory of the current state-of-the-art and propose future research directions, both on post-fire models themselves and on their integration with other models in large-scale water resource assessment management.

Surgical fires, a clear and present danger.

PubMed

Yardley, I E; Donaldson, L J

2010-04-01

A surgical fire is potentially devastating for a patient. Fire has been recognised as a potential complication of surgery for many years. Surgical fires continue to happen with alarming frequency. We present a review of the literature and an examination of possible solutions to this problem. The PubMed and Medline databases from 1948 onwards were searched using the subject headings "operating rooms", "fire", "safety" and "safety management". "Surgical fire" was also searched as a keyword. Relevant references from articles were obtained. Fire occurs when the three elements of the fire triad, fuel, oxidiser and ignition coincide. Surgical fires are unusual in the absence of an oxygen-enriched atmosphere. The ignition source is most commonly diathermy but lasers carry a relatively greater risk. The majority of fires occur during head and neck surgery. This is due to the presence of oxygen and the extensive use of lasers. The risk of fire can be reduced with an awareness of the risk and good communication. Surgery will always carry a risk of fire. Reducing this risk requires a concerted effort from all team members. Copyright 2010 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of fire on fish populations: Landscape perspectives on persistance of native fishes and nonnative fish invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, J.B.; Young, M.; Gresswell, Robert E.; Rieman, B.

2003-01-01

Our limited understanding of the short and long-term effects of fire on fish contributes to considerable uncertainty in assessments of the risks and benefits of fire management alternatives. A primary concern among the many potential effects of fire is the effects of fire and fire management on persistence of native fish populations. Limited evidence suggests vulnerability of fish to fire is contingent upon the quality of affected habitats, the amount and distribution of habitat (habitat fragmentation), and habitat specificity of the species in question. Species with narrow habitat requirements in highly degraded and fragmented systems are likely to be most vulnerable to fire and fire-related disturbance. In addition to effects of fire on native fish, there are growing concerns about the effects of fire on nonnative fish invasions. The role of fire in facilitating invasions by nonnative fishes is unknown, but experience with other species suggests some forms of disturbance associated with fire may facilitate invasion. Management efforts to promote persistence of fishes in fire-prone landscapes can take the form of four basic alternatives: (1) pre-fire management; (2) post-fire management; (3) managing fire itself (e.g. fire fighting); and (4) monitoring and adaptive management. Among these alternatives, pre-fire management is likely to be most effective. Effective pre-fire management activities will address factors that may render fish populations more vulnerable to the effects of fire (e.g. habitat degradation, fragmentation, and nonnative species). Post-fire management is also potentially important, but suffers from being a reactive approach that may not address threats in time to avert them. Managing fire itself can be important in some contexts, but negative consequences for fish populations are possible (e.g. toxicity of fire fighting chemicals to fish). Monitoring and adaptive management can provide important new information for evaluating alternatives, but proper implementation is often hampered by inadequate study designs and inconsistent financial and institutional support. The challenge for providing better management guidelines will be to add solid empirical data and models to assess the relevance of emerging concepts and theories, and provide a sense of where and when fires pose significant risks and/or benefits to fishes.

The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the wildland urban interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-12-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the wildland urban interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of the 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire's weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting >2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances >10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). Overall, 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the Wildland Urban Interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-09-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting more than 2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances further than 10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

Pediatric fire deaths in Ontario: retrospective study of behavioural, social, and environmental risk factors.

PubMed

Chen, Yingming Amy; Bridgman-Acker, Karen; Edwards, Jim; Lauwers, Albert Edward

2011-05-01

To identify the predictors of residential fire deaths in the Ontario pediatric population using systematically collected data from the Office of the Chief Coroner. Retrospective cohort study. Ontario. Children younger than 16 years of age who died in accidental residential fires in Ontario between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2006. The study retrospectively reviewed the coroner's case files for 60 subjects who qualified according to the selection criteria. Reviewed documents included the coroner's investigation statements, autopsy reports, toxicology reports, fire marshal's reports, police reports, and Children's Aid Society (CAS) reports. Information on a range of demographic, behavioural, social, and environmental factors was collected. Statistical tests, including relative risk, relative risk confidence intervals, and χ(2) tests were performed to determine the correlation between factors of interest and to establish their significance. Thirty-nine fire events resulting in 60 deaths occurred between 2001 and 2006. Fire play and electrical failures were the top 2 causes of residential fires. More fires occurred during the night (midnight to 9 AM) than during the day (9 AM to midnight). Nighttime fires were most commonly due to electrical failures or unattended candles, whereas daytime fires were primarily caused by unsupervised fire play and stove fires. Smoke alarms were present at 32 of 39 fire events (82%), but overall alarm functionality was only 54%. Children from families with a history of CAS involvement were approximately 32 times more likely to die in fires. Risk factors for pediatric fire death in Ontario include smoke alarm functionality, fire play, fire escape behaviour, and CAS involvement. Efforts to prevent residential fire deaths should target these populations and risk factors, and primary care physicians should consider education around these issues as a primary preventive strategy for families with young children.

Fire Risk Assessment of Some Indian Coals Using Radial Basis Function (RBF) Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nimaje, Devidas; Tripathy, Debi Prasad

2017-04-01

Fires, whether surface or underground, pose serious and environmental problems in the global coal mining industry. It is causing huge loss of coal due to burning and loss of lives, sterilization of coal reserves and environmental pollution. Most of the instances of coal mine fires happening worldwide are mainly due to the spontaneous combustion. Hence, attention must be paid to take appropriate measures to prevent occurrence and spread of fire. In this paper, to evaluate the different properties of coals for fire risk assessment, forty-nine in situ coal samples were collected from major coalfields of India. Intrinsic properties viz. proximate and ultimate analysis; and susceptibility indices like crossing point temperature, flammability temperature, Olpinski index and wet oxidation potential method of Indian coals were carried out to ascertain the liability of coal to spontaneous combustion. Statistical regression analysis showed that the parameters of ultimate analysis provide significant correlation with all investigated susceptibility indices as compared to the parameters of proximate analysis. Best correlated parameters (ultimate analysis) were used as inputs to the radial basis function network model. The model revealed that Olpinski index can be used as a reliable method to assess the liability of Indian coals to spontaneous combustion.

Back to Basics: Preventing Surgical Fires.

PubMed

Spruce, Lisa

2016-09-01

When fires occur in the OR, they are devastating and potentially fatal to both patients and health care workers. Fires can be prevented by understanding the fire triangle and methods of reducing fire risk, conducting fire risk assessments, and knowing how to respond if a fire occurs. This Back to Basics article addresses the basics of fire prevention and the steps that can be taken to prevent fires from occurring. Copyright © 2016 AORN, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

PubMed

Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

2014-05-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling☆

PubMed Central

Eastaugh, C.S.; Hasenauer, H.

2014-01-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's ‘soil water’ and ‘labile litter carbon’ variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness. PMID:26109905

Winter grazing decreases wildfire risk, severity, and behavior in semi-arid sagebrush rangelands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wildfires are an ecological and economic risk for many semi-arid rangelands which has resulted in increased pressure for pre-suppression management of fuels. In rangelands, fuel management treatment options are limited by costs. We evaluated winter grazing as a tool to manage fuels and alter fire ...

An evaluation of image based techniques for wildfire detection and fuel mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabbert, Dustin W.

Few events can cause the catastrophic impact to ecology, infrastructure, and human safety of a wildland fire along the wildland urban interface. The suppression of natural wildland fires over the past decade has caused a buildup of dry, dead surface fuels: a condition that, coupled with the right weather conditions, can cause large destructive wildfires that are capable of threatening both ancient tree stands and manmade infrastructure. Firefighters use fire danger models to determine staffing needs on high fire risk days; however models are only as effective as the spatial and temporal density of their observations. OKFIRE, an Oklahoma initiative created by a partnership between Oklahoma State University and the University of Oklahoma, has proven that fire danger assessments close to the fire - both geographically and temporally - can give firefighters a significant increase in their situational awareness while fighting a wildland fire. This paper investigates several possible solutions for a small Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) which could gather information useful for detecting ground fires and constructing fire danger maps. Multiple fire detection and fuel mapping programs utilize satellites, manned aircraft, and large UAS equipped with hyperspectral sensors to gather useful information. Their success provides convincing proof of the utility that could be gained from low-altitude UAS gathering information at the exact time and place firefighters and land managers are interested in. Close proximity, both geographically and operationally, to the end can reduce latency times below what could ever be possible with satellite observation. This paper expands on recent advances in computer vision, photogrammetry, and infrared and color imagery to develop a framework for a next-generation UAS which can assess fire danger and aid firefighters in real time as they observe, contain, or extinguish wildland fires. It also investigates the impact information gained by this system could have on pre-fire risk assessments through the development of very high resolution fuel maps.

An Evaluation of Image Based Techniques for Early Wildfire Detection and Fuel Mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gabbert, Dustin W.

Few events can cause the catastrophic impact to ecology, infrastructure, and human safety of a wildland fire along the wildland urban interface. The suppression of natural wildland fires over the past decade has caused a buildup of dry, dead surface fuels: a condition that, coupled with the right weather conditions, can cause large destructive wildfires that are capable of threatening both ancient tree stands and manmade infrastructure. Firefighters use fire danger models to determine staffing needs on high fire risk days; however models are only as effective as the spatial and temporal density of their observations. OKFIRE, an Oklahoma initiativemore » created by a partnership between Oklahoma State University and the University of Oklahoma, has proven that fire danger assessments close to the fire – both geographically and temporally – can give firefighters a significant increase in their situational awareness while fighting a wildland fire. This paper investigates several possible solutions for a small Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) which could gather information useful for detecting ground fires and constructing fire danger maps. Multiple fire detection and fuel mapping programs utilize satellites, manned aircraft, and large UAS equipped with hyperspectral sensors to gather useful information. Their success provides convincing proof of the utility that could be gained from low-altitude UAS gathering information at the exact time and place firefighters and land managers are interested in. Close proximity, both geographically and operationally, to the end can reduce latency times below what could ever be possible with satellite observation. This paper expands on recent advances in computer vision, photogrammetry, and infrared and color imagery to develop a framework for a next-generation UAS which can assess fire danger and aid firefighters in real time as they observe, contain, or extinguish wildland fires. It also investigates the impact information gained by this system could have on pre-fire risk assessments through the development of very high resolution fuel maps.« less

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: A review

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Dave E. Calkin

2011-01-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to...

Fire Safety. Managing School Facilities, Guide 6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Department for Education and Employment, London (England). Architects and Building Branch.

This booklet discusses how United Kingdom schools can manage fire safety and minimize the risk of fire. The guide examines what legislation school buildings must comply with and covers the major risks. It also describes training and evacuation procedures and provides guidance on fire precautions, alarm systems, fire fighting equipment, and escape…

Review of autopsy reports of deaths relating to fire in South Australia 2000-2015.

PubMed

Sully, Claire J; Walker, G Stewart; Langlois, Neil E I

2018-06-01

It has been noted there are gaps and inconsistencies in data pertaining to fire related deaths in Australia, which poses difficulties for analysis of national statistics. A search of post-mortem examination reports at Forensic Science SA from 2000 to 2015 revealed 275 cases regarded as fire related in which the body had been involved in a fire. The autopsy reports were evaluated to determine parameters including the location of the fire event, age and sex of victim, as well as the presence of soot in the airways and cherry-red coloration to the blood and/or organs, in addtion to toxicological levels of carboxyhemoglobin and alcohol. Fire events were clasified as structural, transportation or open air in type. Males were more commonly victims than females, especially in transportation fires, where males aged below 50 years were most at risk of death. Carboxyhemoglobin levels tended to be lower in victims of transportation fires. This study has confirmed that presence of soot in the respiratory tract and cherry-red coloration of a body retrieved from a fire are both linked to an increased level of blood carboxyhemoglobin. These findings significantly contribute to the documentation of fire deaths in Australia.

Wildland-Urban Interface Fires and Socioeconomic Conditions: A Case Study of a Northwestern Patagonia City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Torres Curth, Monica; Biscayart, Carolina; Ghermandi, Luciana; Pfister, Gabriela

2012-04-01

In many regions of the world, fires are primarily of anthropogenic origin. In northwestern Patagonia, the number of fires is not correlated with meteorological variables, but is concentrated in urban areas. This study was conducted in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) area of San Carlos de Bariloche (Patagonia, Argentina), within the Nahuel Huapi National Park. WUI fires are particularly problematic because, besides people and goods, they represent a danger to protected areas. We studied the relationship between fire records and socioeconomic indicators within the WUI of San Carlos de Bariloche. We conducted a Multiple Correspondence Factorial Analysis and an Ascendant Hierarchical Classification of the city neighborhoods. The results show that the neighborhoods in Bariloche can be divided into three classes: High Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, including neighborhoods with the highest fire rates, where people have low instruction level, high levels of unsatisfied basic needs and high unemployment levels; Low Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, that groups neighborhoods which present the opposite characterization, and Moderate Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, which are more heterogeneous. Once neighborhoods were classified, a Socioeconomic Fire Risk map was generated, supplementing the existing WUI Fire Danger map. Our results emphasize the relevance of socioeconomic variables to fire policies.

Probabilistic models to estimate fire-induced cable damage at nuclear power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valbuena, Genebelin R.

Even though numerous PRAs have shown that fire can be a major contributor to nuclear power plant risk, there are some specific areas of knowledge related to this issue, such as the prediction of fire-induced damage to electrical cables and circuits, and their potential effects in the safety of the nuclear power plant, that still constitute a practical enigma, particularly for the lack of approaches/models to perform consistent and objective assessments. This report contains a discussion of three different models to estimate fire-induced cable damage likelihood given a specified fire profile: the kinetic, the heat transfer and the IR "K Factor" model. These models not only are based on statistical analysis of data available in the open literature, but to the greatest extent possible they use physics based principles to describe the underlying mechanism of failures that take place among the electrical cables upon heating due to external fires. The characterization of cable damage, and consequently the loss of functionality of electrical cables in fire is a complex phenomenon that depends on a variety of intrinsic factors such as cable materials and dimensions, and extrinsic factors such as electrical and mechanical loads on the cables, heat flux severity, and exposure time. Some of these factors are difficult to estimate even in a well-characterized fire, not only for the variability related to the unknown material composition and physical arrangements, but also for the lack of objective frameworks and theoretical models to study the behavior of polymeric wire cable insulation under dynamic external thermal insults. The results of this research will (1) help to develop a consistent framework to predict fire-induced cable failure modes likelihood, and (2) develop some guidance to evaluate and/or reduce the risk associated with these failure modes in existing and new power plant facilities. Among the models evaluated, the physics-based heat transfer model takes into account the properties and characteristics of the cables and cable materials, and the characteristics of the thermal insult. This model can be used to estimate the probability of cable damage under different thermal conditions.

Factors affecting fuel break effectiveness in the control of large fires on the Los Padres National Forest, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Brennan, Teresa J.

2011-01-01

As wildfires have increased in frequency and extent, so have the number of homes developed in the wildland-urban interface. In California, the predominant approach to mitigating fire risk is construction of fuel breaks, but there has been little empirical study of their role in controlling large fires.We constructed a spatial database of fuel breaks on the Los Padres National Forest in southern California to better understand characteristics of fuel breaks that affect the behaviour of large fires and to map where fires and fuel breaks most commonly intersect. We evaluated whether fires stopped or crossed over fuel breaks over a 28-year period and compared the outcomes with physical characteristics of the sites, weather and firefighting activities during the fire event. Many fuel breaks never intersected fires, but others intersected several, primarily in historically fire-prone areas. Fires stopped at fuel breaks 46% of the time, almost invariably owing to fire suppression activities. Firefighter access to treatments, smaller fires and longer fuel breaks were significant direct influences, and younger vegetation and fuel break maintenance indirectly improved the outcome by facilitating firefighter access. This study illustrates the importance of strategic location of fuel breaks because they have been most effective where they provided access for firefighting activities.

Near-maximal ECG stress testing and coronary artery disease risk factor analysis in Los Angeles City fire fighters.

PubMed

Barnard, R J; Gardner, G W; Diaco, N V; Kattus, A A

1975-11-01

Near-maximal ECG stress testing and coronary artery disease risk factor analysis including blood pressure, serum cholesterol and smoking habits were conducted on a randomly selected group (N=90) of Los Angeles City Fire Fighters ranging in age from 40 to 59 yrs. The data obtained from the fire fighters were compared to data previously reported for a group of Los Angeles insurance underwriters of the same age range. Only 12% of the fire fighters had cholesterol values greater than 260 mg% while 18% of the insurance executives fell into this category. Only 2% of the fire fighters had blood pressure values greater than 160/90 mm Hg while 25% of the insurance executives were hypertensive. Thirty-two percent of the fire fighters were smokers at the time of testing as compared to 26% for the insurance executives. Only one fire fighter had all three risk factors elevated and only five had two risk factors elevated. Forty-seven of the fire fighters had no risk factors elevated. Ten percent of the fire fighters had ischemic stress tests as compared to 8% for the insurance executives. Of the nine fire fighters with ischemic stress tests one was hypertensive, one had elevated serum triglycerides, and three were smokers at the time of testing. Since the fire fighters are a medically-selected population with low risk factors for CHD, the observed incidence of ischemic stress tests is surprising and suggests that ischemic heart disease may be job associated.

The health of women in the US fire service

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Despite statements from national fire service organizations, including the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF) and the International Association of Fire Chiefs (IAFC), promoting a diverse work force related to gender within the fire service, rates of women firefighters remain very low. Thus, research into why this extensive gender disparity continues is a high priority. Recent years have seen a number of large scale studies on firefighter health and health risk behaviors however, none have focused on the health of women firefighters and nearly all have eliminated women from the sample due to small sample size. Data from the present report is drawn from all females in a large, randomly selected cohort of firefighters in an epidemiological study designed to assess health outcomes and health risk behaviors identified as most important to the fire service. Methods Data reported for the present study were collected as baseline data for the Firefighter Injury and Risk Evaluation (FIRE) Study, a longitudinal cohort study examining risk factors for injury in both career and volunteer firefighters in the IAFC Missouri Valley Region. Of the departments assessed, only 8 career and 6 volunteer departments had any women firefighters. All the women solicited for participation chose to enroll in the study. The number of women ranged from 1 to 7 in career departments and 1 to 6 in volunteer departments. Results Where possible, comparisons are made between female firefighters and published data on male firefighters as well as comparisons between female firefighters and military members. Compared to male firefighters, females had more favorable body composition among both career and volunteer firefighters. Tobacco use rates were generally higher among females than males and rates among female firefighters were similar to the rates of female military members. While rates of alcohol use were higher than the general population, only one of the participants evidenced responses in the range of concern on the CAGE screening. Conclusions In general, the findings offer an interesting glimpse of the health of women in the fire service as a generally healthy occupational workforce with some unique health risk behavior challenges. They also highlight some of the similarities and differences between male and female firefighters and bolster the argument for studying female firefighters as a unique occupational sub-population. PMID:23114186

Response of Amazon Fires to the 2015/2016 El Niño and Evaluation of a Seasonal Fire Season Severity Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.

2016-12-01

Recent work has established that year-to-year variability in drought and fire within the Amazon responds to a dual forcing from ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. Teleconnections between the Pacific and the Amazon are strongest between October and March, when El Niño contributes to below-average precipitation during the wet season. A reduced build-up of soil moisture during the wet season, in turn, may limit water availability and transpiration in tropical forests during the following dry season, lowering surface humidity, drying fuels, and allowing fires to spread more easily through the understory. The delayed influence of soil moisture through this land - atmosphere coupling provides a means to predict fire season severity 3-6 months before the onset of the dry season. With the aim of creating new opportunities for forest conservation, we have developed an experimental seasonal fire forecasting system for the Amazon. The 2016 fire season severity forecast, released in June by UCI and NASA, predicts unusually high risk across eastern Peru, northern Bolivia, and Brazil. Several surface and satellite data streams confirm that El Niño teleconnections had a significant impact on wet season hydrology within the Amazon. Rainfall observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre provided evidence that cumulative precipitation deficits during August-April were 1 to 2 standard deviations below the long-term mean for most of the basin. These observations were corroborated by strong negative terrestrial water storage anomalies measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, and by fluorescence and vegetation index observations from other sensors that indicated elevated canopy stress. By August 3rd, satellite observations showed above average fire activity in most, but not all, forecast regions. Using additional satellite observations that become available later this year, we plan to describe the full spatial and temporal pattern of fires within the Amazon during the 2016 dry season and evaluate the success of our forecast. As a part of this analysis, we will compare fires from 2016 with other years of extreme drought (i.e., 2005 and 2010), and assess how trends in land use, including regional changes in deforestation, modify El Niño-driven fire risk.

Determination of pumper truck intervention ratios in zones with high fire potential by using geographical information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aricak, Burak; Kucuk, Omer; Enez, Korhan

2014-01-01

Fighting forest fires not only depends on the forest type, topography, and weather conditions, but is also closely related to the technical properties of fire-fighting equipment. Firefighting is an important part of fire management planning. However, because of the complex nature of forests, creating thematic layers to generate potential fire risk maps is difficult. The use of remote sensing data has become an efficient method for the discrete classification of potential fire risks. The study was located in the Central District of the Kastamonu Regional Forest Directorate, covering an area of 24,320 ha, 15,685 ha of which is forested. On the basis of stand age, crown closure, and tree species, the sizes and distributions of potential fire risk zones within the study area were determined using high-resolution GeoEye satellite imagery and geographical information system data. The status of pumper truck intervention in zones with high fire risk and the sufficiency of existing forest roads within an existing forest network were discussed based on combustible matter characteristics. Pumper truck intervention was 83% for high-risk zones, 79% for medium-risk zones, and 78% for low-risk zones. A pumper truck intervention area map along existing roads was also created.

Forest fuels and landscape-level fire risk assessment of the ozark highlands, Missouri

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

2007-01-01

In this paper we describe a fire risk assessment of the Ozark Highlands. Fire risk is rated using information on ignition potential and fuel hazard. Fuel loading, a component of the fire hazard module, is weakly predicted (r2 = 0.19) by site- and landscape-level attributes. Fuel loading does not significantly differ between Ozark ecological...

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

Diversity in Southwesterners' views of Forest Service fire management

Treesearch

P.L. Winter; G.T. Cvetkovich

2007-01-01

The risk of wildland fires is of significant concern in the southwestern United States. Although the Southwest has a long hi story as a fire· prone ecosystem, years of drought and insect infestation have increased fire risk. Paired with these ecological forces is the increased risk caused by the concentration of populations in the wildland urban interface (WUl),...

Cyberpark 2000: Protected Areas Management Pilot Project. Satellite time series vegetation monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteleone, M.; Lanorte, A.; Lasaponara, R.

2009-04-01

Cyberpark 2000 is a project funded by the UE Regional Operating Program of the Apulia Region (2000-2006). The main objective of the Cyberpark 2000 project is to develop a new assessment model for the management and monitoring of protected areas in Foggia Province (Apulia Region) based on Information and Communication Technologies. The results herein described are placed inside the research activities finalized to develop an environmental monitoring system knowledge based on the use of satellite time series. This study include: - A- satellite time series of high spatial resolution data for supporting the analysis of fire static risk factors through land use mapping and spectral/quantitative characterization of vegetation fuels; - B- satellite time series of MODIS for supporting fire dynamic risk evaluation of study area - Integrated fire detection by using thermal imaging cameras placed on panoramic view-points; - C - integrated high spatial and high temporal satellite time series for supporting studies in change detection factors or anomalies in vegetation covers; - D - satellite time-series for monitoring: (i) post fire vegetation recovery and (ii) spatio/temporal vegetation dynamics in unburned and burned vegetation covers.

Compressed natural gas bus safety: a quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Samuel; Modarres, Mohammad

2005-04-01

This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel-fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel-powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100-million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100-million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100-million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to fire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 x 10(-5) fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 x 10(-6) and 4.0 x 10(-5), respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping.

Policy change and governance at the wildland-urban interface: the case of post-wildfire impacts in Boise, Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindquist, Eric

2013-04-01

In the summer of 2012 over 1.7 million acres (approximately 6900 sq kilometers) were burned from wildfires in the state of Idaho in the Western United States. While most of the these fires were in rural and wilderness areas, several significant fires occurred at the wildland-urban interface (WUI), threatening houses, communities and the built environment as never before. As the population of the Mountain West in the United States grows, the WUI (the area where homes are being built adjacent to traditionally wild or rural areas and the built environment encroaches on wildlands) is rapidly becoming an at risk area for human habitation. Efforts to make these areas more resilient and sustainable in the face of increasing fire risk, due to increasing drought and climate change, are resulting in efforts to change or adapt disaster response and planning policy. An increase in stakeholders, however, with diverse objectives and resources presents an opportunity to assess the current governance situation for policy change in response to wildland fires in the dynamic and complex context of the WUI. The research presented here will focus on the case of Treasure Valley region of southwest Idaho and Boise, the capitol city of Idaho. This region is illustrative of the growing urban western United States and the pressures from a growing population pushing into the WUI. This research frames fire policy and decision making at the wildland-urban interface within public policy process theory using the example of the summer of 2012 forest fires in Idaho (USA) and focuses on subsequents impact these fires are having on fire planning and policy in the Boise metropolitan region. The focus is on the diverse stakeholders (federal, state and regional agencies, tourism, agriculture and private sector interests, homeowner organizations, and fire response and recovery agencies) and their roles and responsibilities, their interactions, decision and policy processes, the use of science in decision making, post and pre disaster assessments, and subsequent policy changes. The conclusions will reflect on the outlook for the future of the WUI in regard to wildfire risk and response and on the contribution of policy process theory to this policy domain. This paper/poster addresses significant theoretical and empirical issues raised in the Call for Papers for NH7.1 "Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires: models, theory and reality," including: pre-fire planning and risk management; post-fire evaluation; relation between wildfires and social changes; and the influence of weather and climate change on wildfire activity.

Post-wildfire logging hinders regeneration and increases fire risk.

PubMed

Donato, D C; Fontaine, J B; Campbell, J L; Robinson, W D; Kauffman, J B; Law, B E

2006-01-20

We present data from a study of early conifer regeneration and fuel loads after the 2002 Biscuit Fire, Oregon, USA, with and without postfire logging. Natural conifer regeneration was abundant after the high-severity fire. Postfire logging reduced median regeneration density by 71%, significantly increased downed woody fuels, and thus increased short-term fire risk. Additional reduction of fuels is necessary for effective mitigation of fire risk. Postfire logging can be counterproductive to the goals of forest regeneration and fuel reduction.

Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States.

PubMed

Balch, Jennifer K; Bradley, Bethany A; Abatzoglou, John T; Nagy, R Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J; Mahood, Adam L

2017-03-14

The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal "fire niche" in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km 2 , the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km 2 , primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards.

Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States

PubMed Central

Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J.; Mahood, Adam L.

2017-01-01

The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal “fire niche” in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2, the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2, primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards. PMID:28242690

Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires.

PubMed

Metallinou, Maria-Monika; Log, Torgrim

2017-07-20

General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km² of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires.

Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires

PubMed Central

Metallinou, Maria-Monika; Log, Torgrim

2017-01-01

General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km2 of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires. PMID:28726752

The role of prescribed burn associations in the application of prescribed fires in rangeland ecosystems.

PubMed

Toledo, David; Kreuter, Urs P; Sorice, Michael G; Taylor, Charles A

2014-01-01

Risk and liability concerns regarding fire affect people's attitudes toward fire and have led to human-induced alterations of fire regimes. This has, in turn, contributed to brush encroachment and degradation of many grasslands and savannas. Efforts to successfully restore such degraded ecosystems at the landscape scale in regions of the United States with high proportions of private lands require the reintroduction of fire. Prescribed Burn Associations (PBA) provide training, equipment, and labor to apply fire safely, facilitating the application of this rangeland management tool and thereby reducing the associated risk. PBAs help build networks and social capital among landowners who are interested in using fire. They can also change attitudes toward fire and enhance the social acceptability of using prescribed fire as a management practice. PBAs are an effective mechanism for promoting the widespread use of prescribed fire to restore and maintain the biophysical integrity of grasslands and savannas at the landscape scale. We report findings of a project aimed at determining the human dimensions of using prescribed fire to control woody plant encroachment in three different eco-regions of Texas. Specifically, we examine membership in PBAs as it relates to land manager decisions regarding the use of prescribed fire. Perceived risk has previously been identified as a key factor inhibiting the use of prescribed fire by landowners. Our results show that perceived constraints, due to lack of skill, knowledge, and access to equipment and membership in a PBAs are more important factors than risk perceptions in affecting landowner decisions about the use of fire. This emphasizes the potential for PBAs to reduce risk perceptions regarding the application of prescribed fire and, therefore, their importance for restoring brush-encroached grasslands and savannas. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A review on the mechanism, risk evaluation, and prevention of coal spontaneous combustion in China.

PubMed

Kong, Biao; Li, Zenghua; Yang, Yongliang; Liu, Zhen; Yan, Daocheng

2017-10-01

In recent years, the ecology, security, and sustainable development of modern mines have become the theme of coal mine development worldwide. However, spontaneous combustion of coal under conditions of oxygen supply and automatic exothermic heating during coal mining lead to coalfield fires. Coal spontaneous combustion (CSC) causes huge economic losses and casualties, with the toxic and harmful gases produced during coal combustion not only polluting the working environment, but also causing great damage to the ecological environment. China is the world's largest coal producer and consumer; however, coal production in Chinese mines is seriously threatened by the CSC risk. Because deep underground mining methods are commonly adopted in Chinese coal mines, coupling disasters are frequent in these mines with the coalfield fires becoming increasingly serious. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed the development mechanism of CSC. The CSC risk assessment was performed from the aspects of prediction, detection, and determination of the "dangerous area" in a coal mine (i.e., the area most susceptible to fire hazards). A new geophysical method for CSC determination is proposed and analyzed. Furthermore, the main methods for CSC fire prevention and control and their advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. To eventually construct CSC prevention and control integration system, future developmental direction of CSC was given from five aspects. Our results can present a reference for the development of CSC fire prevention and control technology and promote the protection of ecological environment in China.

The estimation of electrical cable fire-induced damage limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowlen, S. P.; Jacobus, M. J.

Sandia National Laboratories has, for several years, been engaged in the performance of both fire safety and electrical equipment qualification research under independent programs sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Recent comparisons between electrical cable thermal damageability data gathered independently in these two efforts indicate that a direct correlation exists between certain of the recent cable thermal vulnerability information gathered under equipment qualification conditions and thermal damageability in a fire environment. This direct correlation allows for a significant expansion of the data base on estimated cable thermal vulnerability limits in a fire environment because of the wide range of cable types and products that have been evaluated as a part of the equipment qualification research. This paper provides a discussion of the basis for the derived correlation, and presents estimated cable thermal damage limits for a wide range of generic cable types and specific cable products. The supposition that a direct correlation exists is supported through direct comparisons of the test results for certain specific cable products. The proposed supplemental cable fire vulnerability data gained from examination of the equipment qualification results is presented. These results should be of particular interest to those engaged in the evaluation of fire risk for industrial facilities, including nuclear power plants.

Adding Fuel to the Fire: The Impacts of Non-Native Grass Invasion on Fire Management at a Regional Scale

PubMed Central

Setterfield, Samantha A.; Rossiter-Rachor, Natalie A.; Douglas, Michael M.; Wainger, Lisa; Petty, Aaron M.; Barrow, Piers; Shepherd, Ian J.; Ferdinands, Keith B.

2013-01-01

Background Widespread invasion by non-native plants has resulted in substantial change in fire-fuel characteristics and fire-behaviour in many of the world's ecosystems, with a subsequent increase in the risk of fire damage to human life, property and the environment. Models used by fire management agencies to assess fire risk are dependent on accurate assessments of fuel characteristics but there is little evidence that they have been modified to reflect landscape-scale invasions. There is also a paucity of information documenting other changes in fire management activities that have occurred to mitigate changed fire regimes. This represents an important limitation in information for both fire and weed risk management. Methodology/Principal Findings We undertook an aerial survey to estimate changes to landscape fuel loads in northern Australia resulting from invasion by Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass). Fuel load within the most densely invaded area had increased from 6 to 10 t ha−1 in the past two decades. Assessment of the effect of calculating the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) for the 2008 and 2009 fire seasons demonstrated that an increase from 6 to 10 t ha−1 resulted in an increase from five to 38 days with fire risk in the ‘severe’ category in 2008 and from 11 to 67 days in 2009. The season of severe fire weather increased by six weeks. Our assessment of the effect of increased fuel load on fire management practices showed that fire management costs in the region have increased markedly (∼9 times) in the past decade due primarily to A. gayanus invasion. Conclusions/Significance This study demonstrated the high economic cost of mitigating fire impacts of an invasive grass. This study demonstrates the need to quantify direct and indirect invasion costs to assess the risk of further invasion and to appropriately fund fire and weed management strategies. PMID:23690917

Adding fuel to the fire: the impacts of non-native grass invasion on fire management at a regional scale.

PubMed

Setterfield, Samantha A; Rossiter-Rachor, Natalie A; Douglas, Michael M; Wainger, Lisa; Petty, Aaron M; Barrow, Piers; Shepherd, Ian J; Ferdinands, Keith B

2013-01-01

Widespread invasion by non-native plants has resulted in substantial change in fire-fuel characteristics and fire-behaviour in many of the world's ecosystems, with a subsequent increase in the risk of fire damage to human life, property and the environment. Models used by fire management agencies to assess fire risk are dependent on accurate assessments of fuel characteristics but there is little evidence that they have been modified to reflect landscape-scale invasions. There is also a paucity of information documenting other changes in fire management activities that have occurred to mitigate changed fire regimes. This represents an important limitation in information for both fire and weed risk management. We undertook an aerial survey to estimate changes to landscape fuel loads in northern Australia resulting from invasion by Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass). Fuel load within the most densely invaded area had increased from 6 to 10 t ha(-1) in the past two decades. Assessment of the effect of calculating the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) for the 2008 and 2009 fire seasons demonstrated that an increase from 6 to 10 t ha(-1) resulted in an increase from five to 38 days with fire risk in the 'severe' category in 2008 and from 11 to 67 days in 2009. The season of severe fire weather increased by six weeks. Our assessment of the effect of increased fuel load on fire management practices showed that fire management costs in the region have increased markedly (∼9 times) in the past decade due primarily to A. gayanus invasion. This study demonstrated the high economic cost of mitigating fire impacts of an invasive grass. This study demonstrates the need to quantify direct and indirect invasion costs to assess the risk of further invasion and to appropriately fund fire and weed management strategies.

Underestimating risks to the northern spotted owl in fire-prone forests: response to Hanson et al

Treesearch

Thomas A. Spies; Jay D. Miller; Joseph B. Buchanan; John F. Lehmkuhl; Jerry F. Franklin; Sean P. Healey; Paul F. Hessburg; Hugh D. Safford; Warren B. Cohen; Rebecca S.H. Kennedy; Eric E. Knapp; James K. Agee; Melinda Moeur

2010-01-01

The development of conservation plans for Northern Spotted Owls (NSO) (Strix occidentalis caurina) in disturbance-prone landscapes requires evaluation of multiple threats and careful consideration of the consequences of management actions intended to reduce risk. Hanson et al. (2009) used downwardly revised estimates of recent old-forest losses to...

Relationships between annual plant productivity, nitrogen deposition and fire size in low-elevation California desert scrub

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rao, Leela E.; Matchett, John R.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Johns, Robert; Minnich, Richard A.; Allen, Edith B.

2014-01-01

Although precipitation is correlated with fire size in desert ecosystems and is typically used as an indirect surrogate for fine fuel load, a direct link between fine fuel biomass and fire size has not been established. In addition, nitrogen (N) deposition can affect fire risk through its fertilisation effect on fine fuel production. In this study, we examine the relationships between fire size and precipitation, N deposition and biomass with emphasis on identifying biomass and N deposition thresholds associated with fire spreading across the landscape. We used a 28-year fire record of 582 burns from low-elevation desert scrub to evaluate the relationship of precipitation, N deposition and biomass with the distribution of fire sizes using quantile regression. We found that models using annual biomass have similar predictive ability to those using precipitation and N deposition at the lower to intermediate portions of the fire size distribution. No distinct biomass threshold was found, although within the 99th percentile of the distribution fire size increased with greater than 125 g m–2 of winter fine fuel production. The study did not produce an N deposition threshold, but did validate the value of 125 g m–2 of fine fuel for spread of fires.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Short, Steven M.; Coles, Garill A.; Bohlander, Karl L.

In June 2004 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) amended its fire protection requirements to permit existing nuclear power reactor licensees to voluntarily adopt fire protection requirements contained in National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 805. NFPA 805 is a performance-based standard for nuclear power plant fire protection that is an alternative to the deterministic, prescriptive fire protection requirements, such as 10 CFR 50 Appendix R, that was issued in 1980. One aspect of implementing NFPA 805 is that the licensee adopts the performance goals, objectives, and criteria for nuclear safety specified in the Standard. These goals, objectives, and criteriamore » can be met through the implementation of deterministic approaches or performance-based approaches, including engineering analyses, probabilistic risk assessment, and fire modeling. Licensees voluntarily adopting the fire protection requirements in NFPA 805 must submit a license amendment request (LAR) to the NRC. The LAR provides the new proposed fire protection licensing basis, including the methodology and results of required evaluations and analyses that show how the NFPA 805 performance criteria are met. As of August 2014, licensees have submitted LARs for 26 nuclear power plants, representing 42 nuclear reactor units. Of these, 7 nuclear power plants, representing 10 nuclear reactor units, have been issued a safety evaluation (SE) by the NRC approving transition of their fire protection licensing basis to one that complies with NFPA 805. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) supports the NRC staff’s technical review of the LARs in the areas of fundamental fire protection, safe shutdown analysis, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). PNNL, of course, cannot speak for the nuclear industry and its choice of implementation strategies or the NRC staff’s assessment of the approaches being taken to adopt NFPA 805. However, as a reviewer of the technical details of these submittals, PNNL is in a position to observe the array of implementation tactics taken in these submittals, and observe different ways licensees are making the NFPA 805 process work. For example, we see differences in how fire areas are being transitioned, the kinds of plant modifications being implemented, the changes being made to plant procedures, the number and types of recovery actions being credited, and the kinds and extent of detailed modeling being performed in support of the Fire PRAs. As a caveat, we note that it is probably too early to comment on the overall success or limitations of the NFPA 805 process or provide lessons learned for the future. Furthermore, it is not our intention to endorse any particular approach taken in a submittal over another or to critique the industry or the regulator. Rather our goal in this paper is to summarize a set of interesting and useful differences across submittals that may provide context for further future discussions about what we (i.e., reviewers, industry, and regulators) have learned in being part of the NFPA process; and how to best use that information to inform future NFPA 805 activities or other risk-informed endeavors.« less

Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities

Treesearch

Rachel S. Madsen; Hylton J. G. Haynes; Sarah M. McCaffrey

2018-01-01

As wildland fires have had increasing negative impacts on a range of human values, in many parts of the United States (U.S.) and around the world, collaborative risk reduction efforts among agencies, homeowners, and fire departments are needed to improve wildfire safety and mitigate risk. Using interview data from 46 senior officers from local fire departments around...

An analytical framework for quantifying wildland fire risk and fuel treatment benefit

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott

2006-01-01

Federal wildland fire management programs have readily embraced the practice of fuel treatment. Wildland fire risk is quantified as expected annual loss ($ yr –1 or $ yr –1 ac –1). Fire risk at a point on the landscape is a function of the probability of burning at that point, the relative frequency...

Modern Approaches to Wildfire Mitigation by Air and by Ground: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffin, J.; Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.; Wuerzer, T.; Lawless, B.; McCoy, J.

2013-12-01

In 2012, 1.7 million acres of land burned in Idaho--more than any other state. Boise, Idaho, is situated at the base of the Boise Foothills; this physiographic setting places the area at risk of not only fires along on the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), but also at risk for post-fire floods and debris flows in the lower lying neighborhoods adjacent to steep hillslopes. In 1959 and 1994, fires and post-fire debris flows devastated areas of the foothills, and inundated residences with water and mud. Anthropogenically-induced climate change is projected to increased summer temperatures and decrease summer precipitation; the associated increase in fire risk necessitates enhanced wildfire planning in Boise's WUI. Temporal uncertainty with varying weather and vegetation conditions poses problems in defining wildfire risk and requires new methods to address the WUI challenges. Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) could identify and characterize fire hazards to be mapped and used as a management tool. This technology would allow for repeat flights to update risk analysis as the hazards change both annually and multiple times within each fire season. With aerial photography obtained from flights, Structure from Motion software can be used to compile the images and render a 3D model to help quantify biomass. Aerial photographs would also allow for the ability to track seasonal changes in fire risk from vegetation height and inferred moisture content. Boise State University's departments of Geoscience, Community and Regional Planning, and the Public Policy Center are examining the risks and impacts of fire along the Boise WUI. The research integrates the perspectives of the geosciences and social sciences by combining physically-based fire hazards, effective fire management policies, and urban/regional planning in the WUI to provide better spatially-appropriate data and resources to the community and a common reference to assist in unifying the local efforts for fire mitigation. This presentation will introduce findings from a homeowner's survey of potentially at-risk residents regarding their perceptions of risk and uncertainty and their receptiveness to local mitigation, adaptation policies, and alternatives.

Fire Effects Planning Framework: A user's guide

Treesearch

A. Black; T. Opperman

2005-01-01

Each decision to suppress fire reinforces a feedback cycle in which fuels continue to accumulate, risk escalates, and the tendency to suppress fires grows (Miller and others, 2003). Existing decision-support tools focus primarily on the negative consequences of fire. This guide outlines a framework managers can use to (1) identify key areas of fire risk and (2)...

Hazard-Free Pyrotechnic Simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcalister, William B., Jr.

1988-01-01

Simulator evaluates performance of firing circuits for electroexplosive devices (EED's) safely and inexpensively. Tests circuits realistically when pyrotechnic squibs not connected and eliminates risks of explosions. Used to test such devices as batteries where test conditions might otherwise degrade them.

Risk factors associated with unintentional house fire incidents, injuries and deaths in high-income countries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Turner, Samantha L; Johnson, Rhodri D; Weightman, Alison L; Rodgers, Sarah E; Arthur, Geri; Bailey, Rowena; Lyons, Ronan A

2017-04-01

To identify the distinguishing risk factors associated with unintentional house fire incidents, injuries and deaths. Systematic review. A range of bibliographical databases and grey literature were searched from their earliest records to January 2016. To ensure the magnitude of risk could be quantified, only those study types which contained a control group, and undertook appropriate statistical analyses were included. A best evidence synthesis was conducted instead of a meta-analysis due to study heterogeneity. Eleven studies investigating a variety of risk factors and outcomes were identified. Studies ranged from medium to low quality with no high quality studies identified. Characteristics commonly associated with increased risk of house fire incidents, injuries and fatalities included: higher numbers of residents, male, children under the age of 5 years, non-working households, smoking, low income, non-privately owned properties, apartments and buildings in poor condition. Several risk factors were only associated with one outcome (eg, living alone was only associated with increased risk of injurious fires), and households with older residents were at increased risk of injurious fires, but significantly less likely to experience a house fire in the first place. This best evidence synthesis indicates that several resident and property characteristics are associated with risk of experiencing house fire incidents, injuries or death. These findings should be considered by the Fire and Rescue Services and others with a role in fire prevention. Future research should adopt robust, standardised study designs to permit meta-analyses and enable stronger conclusions to be drawn. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Field modeling of heat transfer in atrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedryshkin, Oleg; Gravit, Marina; Bushuev, Nikolay

2017-10-01

The results of calculating fire risk are an important element in the system of modern fire safety assessment. The article reviews the work on the mathematical modeling of fire in the room. A comparison of different calculation models in the programs of fire risk assessment and fire modeling was performed. The results of full-scale fire tests and fire modeling in the FDS program are presented. The analysis of empirical and theoretical data on fire modeling is made, a conclusion is made about the modeling accuracy in the FDS program.

Application of the NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC Fire PRA Methodology to a DOE Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tom Elicson; Bentley Harwood; Richard Yorg

2011-03-01

The application NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC fire PRA methodology to DOE facility presented several challenges. This paper documents the process and discusses several insights gained during development of the fire PRA. A brief review of the tasks performed is provided with particular focus on the following: • Tasks 5 and 14: Fire-induced risk model and fire risk quantification. A key lesson learned was to begin model development and quantification as early as possible in the project using screening values and simplified modeling if necessary. • Tasks 3 and 9: Fire PRA cable selection and detailed circuit failure analysis. In retrospect, it wouldmore » have been beneficial to perform the model development and quantification in 2 phases with detailed circuit analysis applied during phase 2. This would have allowed for development of a robust model and quantification earlier in the project and would have provided insights into where to focus the detailed circuit analysis efforts. • Tasks 8 and 11: Scoping fire modeling and detailed fire modeling. More focus should be placed on detailed fire modeling and less focus on scoping fire modeling. This was the approach taken for the fire PRA. • Task 14: Fire risk quantification. Typically, multiple safe shutdown (SSD) components fail during a given fire scenario. Therefore dependent failure analysis is critical to obtaining a meaningful fire risk quantification. Dependent failure analysis for the fire PRA presented several challenges which will be discussed in the full paper.« less

Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

PubMed

Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

2012-12-01

Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

2014-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

United States Fire Administration

MedlinePlus

... Vehicle Fire Safety flyer PDF 234 KB Publication Risk management practices This guide contains recommended approaches to manage organizational, operational and community risk. If you are a fire department leader, our ...

The Impact of Reduced Ignition Propensity Cigarette Regulation on Smoking Behavior in a Cohort of Ontario Smokers

PubMed Central

O’Connor, Richard J.; Fix, Brian V.; Hammond, David; Giovino, Gary A.; Hyland, Andrew; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Cummings, K. Michael

2016-01-01

Introduction This study examined the degree to which legislation intended to reduce the incidence of cigarette-caused fires influenced the behaviors of a cohort of smokers in Ontario, Canada. Evaluating the effectiveness of existing cigarette fire-safety has the potential to inform the development of similar standards in other jurisdictions. Methods A random digit dialed telephone survey of adult smokers residing in the Province of Ontario was conducted between July and September of 2005, ending one month prior to the RIP regulation’s implementation date. A follow-up survey was conducted between August and November of 2006 to examine changes in engaging in fire risk behaviors, perceptions of changes to cigarettes, and behavioral changes in response to smoking reduced ignition propensity cigarettes. Of the baseline participants, 73.0% (n=435) completed the follow-up survey. Results The frequency of fire risk behaviors was similar across both surveys. At baseline, only 3.7% (95% CI: 2.20–5.76) of smokers interviewed reported that their cigarettes went out on their own ‘often’ while smoking. Following the implementation of the reduced ignition propensity legislation, this increased significantly to 14.7% (95% CI: 11.41–18.42). Discussion The results observed in this study suggest that the proportion of Ontario smokers who reported engaging in behavior such as leaving a cigarette burning unattended and smoking in bed actually declined, although these declines were not statistically significant across all measures of fire risk. As other nations look to implement RIP regulations, the Canadian experience thus far has revealed no risk compensatory behaviors that would offset the potential public health benefit of the regulations. PMID:20643872

Managing the risks of risk management on large fires

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2013-01-01

Large fires pose risks to a number of important values, including the ecology, property and the lives of incident responders. A relatively unstudied aspect of fire management is the risks to which incident managers are exposed due to organizational and sociopolitical factors that put them in a position of, for example, potential liability or degradation of their image...

Managing risk with chance-constrained programming

Treesearch

Michael Bevers; Brian Kent

2007-01-01

Reducing catastrophic fire risk is an important objective of many fuel treatment programs (Kent et al. 2003; Machlis et al. 2002; USDA/USDI 2001a). In practice, risk reductions can be accomplished by lowering the probability of a given loss to forest fires, the amount of probable loss, or both. Forest fire risk objectives are seldom quantified, however, making it...

Application of wildfire simulation methods to assess wildfire exposure in a Mediterranean fire-prone area (Sardinia, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, M.; Ager, A.; Arca, B.; Finney, M.; Bacciu, V. M.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

2012-12-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of fire spread and behavior are dependent on interactions among climate, topography, vegetation and fire suppression efforts (Pyne et al. 1996; Viegas 2006; Falk et al. 2007). Humans also play a key role in determining frequency and spatial distribution of ignitions (Bar Massada et al, 2011), and thus influence fire regimes as well. The growing incidence of catastrophic wildfires has led to substantial losses for important ecological and human values within many areas of the Mediterranean basin (Moreno et al. 1998; Mouillot et al. 2005; Viegas et al. 2006a; Riaño et al. 2007). The growing fire risk issue has led to many new programs and policies of fuel management and risk mitigation by environmental and fire agencies. However, risk-based methodologies to help identify areas characterized by high potential losses and prioritize fuel management have been lacking for the region. Formal risk assessment requires the joint consideration of likelihood, intensity, and susceptibility, the product of which estimates the chance of a specific loss (Brillinger 2003; Society of Risk Analysis, 2006). Quantifying fire risk therefore requires estimates of a) the probability of a specific location burning at a specific intensity and location, and b) the resulting change in financial or ecological value (Finney 2005; Scott 2006). When large fires are the primary cause of damage, the application of this risk formulation requires modeling fire spread to capture landscape properties that affect burn probability. Recently, the incorporation of large fire spread into risk assessment systems has become feasible with the development of high performance fire simulation systems (Finney et al. 2011) that permit the simulation of hundreds of thousands of fires to generate fine scale maps of burn probability, flame length, and fire size, while considering the combined effects of weather, fuels, and topography (Finney 2002; Andrews et al. 2007; Ager and Finney 2009; Finney et al. 2009; Salis et al. 2012 accepted). In this work, we employed wildfire simulation methods to quantify wildfire exposure to human and ecological values for the island of Sardinia, Italy. The work was focused on the risk and exposure posed by large fires (e.g. 100 - 10,000 ha), and considers historical weather, ignition patterns and fuels. We simulated 100,000 fires using burn periods that replicated the historical size distribution on the Island, and an ignition probability grid derived from historic ignition data. We then examine spatial variation in three exposure components (burn probability, flame length, fire size) among important human and ecological values. The results allowed us to contract exposure among and within the various features examined, and highlighted the importance of human factors in shaping wildfire exposure in Sardinia. The work represents the first application of burn probability modeling in the Mediterranean region, and sets the stage for expanded work in the region to quantify risk from large fires

Local Action Plans for Forest Fire Prevention in Greece: Existing situation and a Proposed Template based on the Collaboration of Academics and Public Policy Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papanikolaou, Dimitrios; Arvanitakis, Spyridon; Papanikolaou, , Ioannis; Lozios, Stylianos; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios; Dimitropoulou, Margarita; Georgiou, Konstantinos

2013-04-01

Wildfires are a major hazard in Greece suffering on average 1,509 wildfires and 36,151 burned hectares of forestlands every year. Since 1998 the Greek Fire Service is responsible for wildfires suppression and response, while prevention and mitigation yearly directives are also being released by the General Secretariat of Civil Protection. The 3013/2002 Act introduced a major transfer of responsibilities from the national to local municipal and regional authorities, which are accompanied by supplementary financial support. Significant new features were established such as the operation of local coordination councils, the foundation of municipality civil protection offices, the establishment of the annually prevention planning for forest fires and the development of local action plans. The University of Athens has developed a Local Action Plan template for municipality administrative levels, integrating scientific techniques and technologies to public government management. The Local Action Plan for Forest Fire Prevention is the main handbook and primary tool of every municipality for reducing the risk of wildfires. Fire prevention and risk analysis are the principal aims of this Plan, which also emphasizes on the important role of the volunteer organizations on forest fire prevention. The 7 chapters of the Action Plan include the legal framework, the risk analysis parameters, the risk analysis using GIS, the prevention planning, the manpower and available equipment of services involved, along with operational planning and evaluation of the previous year's forest fire prevention actions. Multiple information layers, such as vegetation types, road network, power lines and landfills are combined in GIS environment and transformed into qualitative multiparameter as well as quantitative combinational fire hazard maps. These maps are essential in wildfire risk analysis as they display the areas that need the highest attention during the fire season. Moreover, the separate steps of operational planning and the reviewing of precaution, addressing and rehabilitation measures are analyzed. This action plan, risk analysis and maps are of decisive importance not only for prevention and operational planning purposes, but can also prove useful during the crisis and the rehabilitation processes as well. Additionally, we conducted a large questionnaire survey among the municipalities of Greece to assess the existing situation regarding forest fire prevention. Therefore, a network connecting civil protection departments of municipalities was developed, based on an Internet platform, which acted also as a communication tool. Overall, we had feedback either online or offline from 125 municipalities across the country (representing more than one/third of the total municipalities of Greece). 23% of the municipalities have not compiled an action plan yet despite the fact that the 3013/2002 Act of the Greek National Law requires one. Moreover, existing action plans are predominantly catalogues and tables of information regarding authorised personnel and equipment. They lack important information, present no spatial data and display no prevention measures. Indeed, 85% of the municipalities that have action plans do not use risk maps and spatial data, which are of decisive importance for compiling the plans. 74% of the municipalities do not keep a record of forest fires. The jurisdiction area has been modified after the new administrative plan of Kallikratis in 2010 in 74% of the municipalities, however, local action plans were not adapted accordingly in 61% of these. The daily Fire Risk Map of the General Secretariat of Civil Protection has a key role, since 77% of the municipalities take additional measures in case of increased fire risk. According to the civil protection officials, existing action plans suffer from several major problems which emerge due to the fact: that there is no assessment on the fire hazard 67%, there is lack of personnel training 65%, new technologies are not incorporated or used 57% and there is a lack of a template for compiling an action plan 53%. The partnership between the University of Athens with the support of the private sector and the Union of Municipalities of Attica was held under the LIFE+ project "Local Authorities Alliance for Forest Fire Prevention - LIFE08/ENV/GR/000553 " which is implemented with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community.

Safety measures for prevention of PCB accidents.

PubMed Central

Pajari, J

1985-01-01

This paper attempts to clarify the most common measures available for the fire and electrical engineer in the prevention of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) hazards. It points out the risks and the potential for making large risks involved in the use of transformers and capacitors more manageable. The focus in solving the PCB problem is on priority. This should be reflected in the agenda of the workshop: it should discuss not only transformers and capacitors as such, but deal more with questions concerning waste disposal, getting correct information to people on substances containing PCBs and on the proper and nonpanicky handling of such substances. The PCB issue does not lend itself to any black and white solution. Instead, a number of different aspects have to be taken into account. Any solutions arrived at are therefore always compromises between risk evaluation and cost effectiveness. Reduction of PCB risks does not have to result, for example, in an increase in fire risks. It is preferable to move step by step and avoid making irretractable decisions. Alternatives available for replacing PCB-filled devices or the widely used method of refilling PCB-filled transformers with silicone oils are not discussed. Refilling is not dealt with because its capacity to reduce the fire risk sufficiently in locations where these transformers are usually found in northern Europe is not known with certainty. PMID:3928364

Influence of fuels, weather and the built environment on the exposure of property to wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penman, Trent D.; Collins, Luke S.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2014-01-01

Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment – either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates.

Influence of Fuels, Weather and the Built Environment on the Exposure of Property to Wildfire

PubMed Central

Penman, Trent D.; Collins, Luke; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2014-01-01

Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment – either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates. PMID:25360741

An analysis on Wildland Urban Interface in North Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arca, B.; Pellizzaro, G.; Canu, A.; Pintus, G. V.; Ferrara, R.; Duce, P.

2012-04-01

Climate variability and drought, typical of the Mediterranean climate, together with different anthropogenic disturbances (modifications of land use, deforestation, grazing, forest fires, etc.) makes the Mediterranean basin ecosystems extremely sensitive and vulnerable. In the last three decades, an increasing number of fires threatening the wildland urban interface (WUI) was observed. In Sardinia, this phenomenon is particularly evident in tourist and coastal areas where a large number of resorts is built within and surrounded by Mediterranean vegetation that is highly prone to events of wildfire. In these situations, the related risk of damage for villages, tourist resorts, other human activities and people is elevated especially in summer when the presence of human people is highest and meteorological conditions are extreme. In addition, fire can have significant effect on the hydrological response of the WUI causing the intensification of the erosive processes. Therefore, the development of planning policies is required in order to implement strategies to prevent and reduce wildfire and soil erosion risk in wildland urban interface areas. The main aims of this work are i) to assess presence and characteristics of wildland urban interface in a touristic areas of North Sardinia and ii) to evaluate fire danger and soil erosion risk in the studied area. The study was carried out in a coastal area located in North Sardinia, characterized by strong touristic development in the last thirty years. In that area, the characterization and mapping of the WUI were performed. In addition several simulation were carried out by the Farsite fire area simulator with the aim to study the spatial pattern of the fire danger factors in the vegetated areas closer to the WUI. Finally, maps of soil erosion were produced for the identification of the areas at high erosion risk in the WUI. This work is supported by MIIUR - Metodologie e indicatori per la valutazione del rischio di Incendio nelle aree di Interfaccia Urbano Rurale in ambiente mediterraneo. Legge Regionale 7 agosto 2007, n. 7.

Shared values and trust: the experience of community residents in a fire-prone ecosystem

Treesearch

Patricia L. Winter; George T. Cvetkovich

2010-01-01

The risk and impact of fires have been significant on the San Bernardino National Forest. It is important to understand how residents of areas surrounded by the forest perceive the impact of fires. If fire management agencies understand these perceptions, fire management agencies will be better equipped to communicate with publics about risk-reduction efforts that...

Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cochrane, M.A.; Moran, C.J.; Wimberly, M.C.; Baer, A.D.; Finney, M.A.; Beckendorf, K.L.; Eidenshink, J.; Zhu, Z.

2012-01-01

Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72 000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314 000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.

76 FR 81998 - Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-29

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0295] Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA AGENCY..., ``Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA--Draft Report for Comment.'' DATES: Submit comments by March 01... risk assessment (PRA) method for quantitatively analyzing fire risk in commercial nuclear power plants...

78 FR 28892 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID FEMA 2010-0037] Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION..., limbing and mowing, thinning, and grazing techniques as appropriate to reduce the risk of fire hazard...

An integrated appraisal of energy recovery options in the United Kingdom using solid recovered fuel derived from municipal solid waste.

PubMed

Garg, A; Smith, R; Hill, D; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T; Simms, N J

2009-08-01

This paper reports an integrated appraisal of options for utilising solid recovered fuels (SRF) (derived from municipal solid waste, MSW) in energy intensive industries within the United Kingdom (UK). Four potential co-combustion scenarios have been identified following discussions with industry stakeholders. These scenarios have been evaluated using (a) an existing energy and mass flow framework model, (b) a semi-quantitative risk analysis, (c) an environmental assessment and (d) a financial assessment. A summary of results from these evaluations for the four different scenarios is presented. For the given ranges of assumptions; SRF co-combustion with coal in cement kilns was found to be the optimal scenario followed by co-combustion of SRF in coal-fired power plants. The biogenic fraction in SRF (ca. 70%) reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions significantly ( approximately 2500 g CO(2) eqvt./kg DS SRF in co-fired cement kilns and approximately 1500 g CO(2) eqvt./kg DS SRF in co-fired power plants). Potential reductions in electricity or heat production occurred through using a lower calorific value (CV) fuel. This could be compensated for by savings in fuel costs (from SRF having a gate fee) and grants aimed at reducing GHG emission to encourage the use of fuels with high biomass fractions. Total revenues generated from coal-fired power plants appear to be the highest ( 95 pounds/t SRF) from the four scenarios. However overall, cement kilns appear to be the best option due to the low technological risks, environmental emissions and fuel cost. Additionally, cement kiln operators have good experience of handling waste derived fuels. The scenarios involving co-combustion of SRF with MSW and biomass were less favourable due to higher environmental risks and technical issues.

Hazard Science in Support of Community Resiliency: The Response of the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project to the 2009 Station Fire in Los Angeles County

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L. M.; Bawden, G. W.; Bowers, J.; Cannon, S.; Cox, D. A.; Fisher, R.; Keeley, J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Wood, N. J.

2009-12-01

The “Station” fire, the largest fire in the history of Los Angeles County in southern California, began on August 26, 2009 and as of the abstract deadline had burned over 150,000 acres of the Angeles National Forest. This fire creates both a demand and an opportunity for hazards science to be used by the communities directly hit by the fire, as well as those downstream of possible postfire impacts. The Multi Hazards Demonstration Project of the USGS is deploying several types of scientific response, including 1) evaluation of potential debris-flow hazards and associated risk, 2) monitoring physical conditions in burned areas and the hydrologic response to rainstorms, 3) increased streamflow monitoring, 4) ash analysis and ground water contamination, 5) ecosystem response and endangered species rescue, 6) lidar data acquisition for evaluations of biomass loss, detailed mapping of the physical processes that lead to debris-flow generation, and other geologic investigations. The Multi Hazards Demonstration Project is working with the southern California community to use the resulting information to better manage the social consequences of the fire and its secondary hazards. In particular, we are working with Los Angeles County to determine what information they need to prioritize recovery efforts. For instance, maps of hazards specific to debris flow potential can help identify the highest priority areas for debris flow mitigation efforts. These same maps together with ecosystem studies will help land managers determine whether individuals from endangered species should be removed to zoos or other refuges during the rainy months. The ash analysis will help water managers prevent contamination to water supplies. Plans are just beginning for a public information campaign with Los Angeles County about the risk posed by potential debris flows that should be underway in December. Activities from the fire response will support the development of the Wildfire Scenario in 2011, which will examine implications of land-use decisions in the frequency of fires in southern California.

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in reducing post-fire runoff and erosion at plot scale with the RUSLE, MMF and PESERA models.

PubMed

Vieira, D C S; Serpa, D; Nunes, J P C; Prats, S A; Neves, R; Keizer, J J

2018-08-01

Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters, make this a region prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. This threat is expected to be aggravated in the future due to climate change and land management practices and planning. The wide recognition of wildfires as a driver for runoff and erosion in burnt forest areas has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire management operations to mitigate these responses. In this study, the effectiveness of two post-fire treatments (hydromulch and natural pine needle mulch) in reducing post-fire runoff and soil erosion was evaluated against control conditions (i.e. untreated conditions), at different spatial scales. The main objective of this study was to use field data to evaluate the ability of different erosion models: (i) empirical (RUSLE), (ii) semi-empirical (MMF), and (iii) physically-based (PESERA), to predict the hydrological and erosive response as well as the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in fire-affected areas. The results of this study showed that all three models were reasonably able to reproduce the hydrological and erosive processes occurring in burned forest areas. In addition, it was demonstrated that the models can be calibrated at a small spatial scale (0.5 m 2 ) but provide accurate results at greater spatial scales (10 m 2 ). From this work, the RUSLE model seems to be ideal for fast and simple applications (i.e. prioritization of areas-at-risk) mainly due to its simplicity and reduced data requirements. On the other hand, the more complex MMF and PESERA models would be valuable as a base of a possible tool for assessing the risk of water contamination in fire-affected water bodies and for testing different land management scenarios. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

77 FR 10576 - Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-22

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0295] Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA AGENCY.../Shutdown Fire PRA.'' In response to request from members of the public, the NRC is extending the public... risk assessment (PRA) method for quantitatively analyzing fire risk in commercial nuclear power plants...

Managing the Library Fire Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, John

A discussion of fire risks, causes, prevention, and salvage in libraries is presented in text and photographs. A description of some historic library fires demonstrates the value of adequate protection and preparedness programs to minimize loss and damage. The need for fire retardant construction and protection from valdalism and arson are…

Studying fire mitigation strategies in multi-ownership landscapes: balancing the management of fire-dependent ecosystems and fire risk

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson; Robert M. Scheller

2009-01-01

Public forests are surrounded by land over which agency managers have no control, and whose owners expect the public forest to be a "good neighbor." Fire risk abatement on multi-owner landscapes containing flammable but fire-dependent ecosystems epitomizes the complexities of managing public lands. We report a case study that applies a landscape disturbance...

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific.

PubMed

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires.

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific

PubMed Central

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires. PMID:25691965

Resistance to invasion and resilience to fire in desert shrublands of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Matthew L.; Chambers, Jeanne C.

2011-01-01

Settlement by Anglo-Americans in the desert shrublands of North America resulted in the introduction and subsequent invasion of multiple nonnative grass species. These invasions have altered presettlement fire regimes, resulted in conversion of native perennial shrublands to nonnative annual grasslands, and placed many native desert species at risk. Effective management of these ecosystems requires an understanding of their ecological resistance to invasion and resilience to fire. Resistance and resilience differ among the cold and hot desert shrublands of the Great Basin, Mojave, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan deserts in North America. These differences are largely determined by spatial and temporal patterns of productivity but also are affected by ecological memory, severity and frequency of disturbance, and feedbacks among invasive species and disturbance regimes. Strategies for preventing or managing invasive plant/fire regimes cycles in desert shrublands include: 1) conducting periodic resource assessments to evaluate the probability of establishment of an altered fire regime; 2) developing an understanding of ecological thresholds associate within invasion resistance and fire resilience that characterize transitions from desirable to undesirable fire regimes; and 3) prioritizing management activities based on resistance of areas to invasion and resilience to fire.

Lagged cumulative spruce budworm defoliation affects the risk of fire ignition in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

James, Patrick M A; Robert, Louis-Etienne; Wotton, B Mike; Martell, David L; Fleming, Richard A

2017-03-01

Detailed understanding of forest disturbance interactions is needed for effective forecasting, modelling, and management. Insect outbreaks are a significant forest disturbance that alters forest structure as well as the distribution and connectivity of combustible fuels at broad spatial scales. The effect of insect outbreaks on fire activity is an important but contentious issue with significant policy consequences. The eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) is a native defoliating insect in eastern North America whose periodic outbreaks create large patches of dead fir and spruce trees. Of particular concern to fire and forest managers is whether these patches represent an increased fire risk, if so, for how long, and how the relationship between defoliation and fire risk varies through space and time. Previous work suggests a temporary increase in flammability in budworm-killed forests, but regional and seasonal variability in these relationships has not been examined. Using an extensive database on historical lightning-caused fire ignitions and spruce budworm defoliation between 1963 and 2000, we assess the relative importance of cumulative defoliation and fire weather on the probability of ignition in Ontario, Canada. We modeled fire ignition using a generalized additive logistic regression model that accounts for temporal autocorrelation in fire weather. We compared two ecoregions in eastern Ontario (Abitibi Plains) and western Ontario (Lake of the Woods) that differ in terms of climate, geomorphology, and forest composition. We found that defoliation has the potential to both increase and decrease the probability of ignition depending on the time scale, ecoregion, and season examined. Most importantly, we found that lagged spruce budworm defoliation (8-10 yr) increases the risk of fire ignition whereas recent defoliation (1 yr) can decrease this risk. We also found that historical defoliation has a greater influence on ignition risk during the spring than during the summer fire season. Given predicted increases in forest insect activity due to global change, these results represent important information for fire management agencies that can be used to refine existing models of fire risk. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Skin antiseptics and the risk of operating theatre fires.

PubMed

Spigelman, Allan D; Swan, Judith R

2005-07-01

Following press reports of patients catching fire or receiving chemical burns in the operating theatre, a review was conducted on the flammability of skin antiseptics. The purpose of the paper was to clarify confusion regarding povidine-iodine (Betadine), which had been reported as being flammable, and also to determine the use of alcohol-based solutions in the Hunter Area Health Service. A risk assessment was conducted and risk reduction strategies outlined. Risk assessment was made following a literature review and an audit of 10 operating theatres in the Hunter Area Health Service. Risk for operating room fires from alcohol-based skin antiseptics was confirmed. Antiseptics in aqueous solutions only smoulder. The Hunter Health survey indicated that although alcohol-based solutions were not used in operating theatres, they were used in anaesthetic bays for insertion of epidural and central line catheters. Strategies to reduce the risk of fire include discontinuation of use of alcohol-based skin antiseptics in operating theatres; using fire retardant surgical drapes; installing over-current protection devices on electrical equipment; minimizing flammable conditions by avoiding nitrous oxide and using the lowest required concentration of inspired oxygen; use of non-flammable cuffed endotracheal tubes; education and training of operating theatre personnel in fire hazards. Operating theatre fires continue to be a major risk for patient safety. In order to reduce this risk, the strategies outlined here should be followed.

Fire safety in the operating room.

PubMed

Rinder, Christine Stowe

2008-12-01

Elimination of flammable anesthetic gases has had little effect on operating-room fires except to change their etiology. Electrocautery and lasers, in an oxygen-enriched environment, can ignite even the most fire-resistant materials, including the patient, and the fire triad possibilities in the operating room are nearly limitless. This review will: identify operating room contents capable of acting as ignition/oxidizer/fuel sources, highlight operating room items that are uniquely potent fire triad contributors, and operating room identify settings where fire risk is enhanced by proximity of triad components in time or space. Anesthesiologists are cognizant of the risk of airway surgery fires due to laser ignition of the endotracheal tube and/or its contents. Recently, however, head/neck surgery under monitored anesthesia care has emerged as a high-risk setting for operating room fires; burn injuries represent 20% of monitored anesthesia care-related malpractice claims, 95% of which involved head/neck surgery. Operating room fires are infrequent but catastrophic. Operating room fire prevention depends on: (a)understanding how fire triad elements interact to create a fire, (b) recognizing how standard operating-room equipment, materials, and supplemental oxygen can become one of those elements, and (c) vigilance for circumstances that bring fire triad elements into close proximity.

Comparison of public safety provider injury rates.

PubMed

Suyama, Joe; Rittenberger, Jon C; Patterson, P Daniel; Hostler, David

2009-01-01

During normal operations, public safety personnel may become injured, leading them to seek medical care and possible time off. Examining the nature and patterns of injury may help to identify preventive health measures for all public safety personnel and address specific needs of each discipline based on actual risk. Objective. To determine the types and severity of injuries encountered by public safety personnel during routine work conditions within a single urban population. De-identified workers' compensation data for emergency medical services (EMS), fire, and police providers from one urban center between January 1, 2005, and May 31, 2007, were examined. Data included type of injury, severity of injury, and date of event. Severity was categorized as follows: lost time (type 1), medical evaluation (type 2), report only (type 3), restricted duty (type 4), and not reported (type 5). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and a pairwise t-test between groups with a Bonferroni correction was performed to determine the relative risk of injuries between groups. During the 29-month interval, an average workforce of 850 firefighters, 194 EMS providers, and 850 police officers were employed. A total of 1,295 workers' compensation events were documented, with 243 (18%) reported from EMS, 477 (36%) from fire, and 608 (46%) from police. Type 1 injuries were more common in fire (39%) and police (38%) than EMS (23%). EMS had higher rates of lost work (type 1) and medical evaluations (type 2) than both fire and police. Workers' compensation events common to all bureaus were minor trauma (76%) and exposures to blood-borne pathogens (12%). Minor traumatic injuries, mostly associated with axial musculoskeletal strains and extremity injuries, were responsible for the majority of injuries resulting in missed work. Injuries more common in a specific bureau included motor vehicle crashes and gunshot wounds (police) and cardiovascular disease, burns, and heat illness (fire). Public safety personnel are affected by both profession-specific and non-profession-specific injuries. Overall, EMS has higher rates of missed time and medical evaluations than both fire and police. These data highlight the need to make direct comparisons of various public safety personnel bureaus using a common time interval and locale in order to rationally plan interventions and apply resources.

FIRES: Fire Information Retrieval and Evaluation System - A program for fire danger rating analysis

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews; Larry S. Bradshaw

1997-01-01

A computer program, FIRES: Fire Information Retrieval and Evaluation System, provides methods for evaluating the performance of fire danger rating indexes. The relationship between fire danger indexes and historical fire occurrence and size is examined through logistic regression and percentiles. Historical seasonal trends of fire danger and fire occurrence can be...

Application of a Mesoscale Atmospheric Coupled Fire Model BRAMS-FIRE to Alentejo Woodland Fire and Comparison of Performance with the Fire Model WRF-Sfire.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitas, S. R.; Menezes, I. C.; Stockler, R.; Mello, R.; Ribeiro, N. A.; Corte-Real, J. A. M.; Surový, P.

2014-12-01

Models of fuel with the identification of vegetation patterns of Montado ecosystem in Portugal was incorporated in the mesoscale Brazilian Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) and coupled with a spread woodland fire model. The BRAMS-FIRE is a new system developed by the "Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos" (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil) and the "Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrâneas" (ICAAM, Portugal). The fire model used in this effort was originally, developed by Mandel et al. (2013) and further incorporated in the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). Two grids of high spatial resolution were configured with surface input data and fuel models integrated for simulations using both models BRAMS-FIRE and WRF-SFIRE. One grid was placed in the plain land near Beja and the other one in the hills of Ossa to evaluate different types of fire propagation and calibrate BRAMS-FIRE. The objective is simulating the effects of atmospheric circulation in local scale, namely the movements of the heat front and energy release associated to it, obtained by this two models in an episode of woodland fire which took place in Alentejo area in the last decade, for application to planning and evaluations of agro woodland fire risks. We aim to model the behavior of forest fires through a set of equations whose solutions provide quantitative values of one or more variables related to the propagation of fire, described by semi-empirical expressions that are complemented by experimental data allow to obtain the main variables related advancing the perimeter of the fire, as the propagation speed, the intensity of the fire front and fuel consumption and its interaction with atmospheric dynamic system. References Mandel, J., J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, and M. Vejmelka, 2013. New features in WRF-SFIRE and the wildfire forecasting and danger system in Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, submitted, Numerical Wildfires, Cargèse, France, May 13-18, 2013.

Methodology for Scour Evaluation of US Army Installation Bridges: A Proposed Evaluation for Scour Risk and Channel Instability

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

rainfall runoff relations ....................................................... 9  Step 2: evaluate hydraulic conditions...earthquakes, landslides , or forest fires might result in a large sediment load. Major changes in the stream might be reflected in aggradation, degradation...removal of material from around piers, abutments, and embankments, caused by an acceleration of flow and by vortices induced by the flow around

Fire risk in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Seth Howard

Fire is an integral part of ecosystems in the western United States. Decades of fire suppression have led to (unnaturally) large accumulations of fuel in some forest communities, such as the lower elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada. Urban sprawl into fire prone chaparral vegetation in southern California has put human lives at risk and the decreased fire return intervals have put the vegetation community at risk of type conversion. This research examines the factors affecting fire risk in two of the dominant landscapes in the state of California, chaparral and inland coniferous forests. Live fuel moisture (LFM) is important for fire ignition, spread rate, and intensity in chaparral. LFM maps were generated for Los Angeles County by developing and then inverting robust cross-validated regression equations from time series field data and vegetation indices (VIs) and phenological metrics from MODIS data. Fire fuels, including understory fuels which are not visible to remote sensing instruments, were mapped in Yosemite National Park using the random forests decision tree algorithm and climatic, topographic, remotely sensed, and fire history variables. Combining the disparate data sources served to improve classification accuracies. The models were inverted to produce maps of fuel models and fuel amounts, and these showed that fire fuel amounts are highest in the low elevation forests that have been most affected by fire suppression impacting the natural fire regime. Wildland fires in chaparral commonly burn in late summer or fall when LFM is near its annual low, however, the Jesusita Fire burned in early May of 2009, when LFM was still relatively high. The HFire fire spread model was used to simulate the growth of the Jesusita Fire using LFM maps derived from imagery acquired at the time of the fire and imagery acquired in late August to determine how much different the fire would have been if it had occurred later in the year. Simulated fires were 1.5 times larger, and the fire reached the wildland urban interface three hours earlier, when using August LFM.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, Dave E

2011-08-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Virtual Reality for Life Skills Education: Program Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vogel, Jennifer; Bowers, Clint; Meehan, Cricket; Hoeft, Raegan; Bradley, Kristy

2004-01-01

A program evaluation was completed for a Virtual Reality (VR) pilot project intended to aid deaf children in learning various life skills which they may be at risk of not adequately learning. Such skills include crossing the street safely, exiting a building during a fire drill, and avoiding situations in which strangers may harm them. The VR was…

Understanding the long-term fire risks in forests affected by sudden oak death

Treesearch

Yana Valachovic; Chris Lee; Radoslaw Glebocki; Hugh Scanlon; J. Morgan Varner; David Rizzo

2010-01-01

It is assumed that large numbers of dead and down tanoak in forests infested by Phytophthora ramorum contribute to increased fire hazard risk and fuel loading. We studied the impact of P. ramorum infestation on surface fuel loading, potential fire hazard, and potential fire behavior in Douglas-fir- (Pseudotsuga...

Risk Factors for Rural Residential Fires

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen; Zwerling, Craig

2007-01-01

Context and Purpose: Rural households report high fire-related mortality and injury rates, but few studies have examined the risk factors for fires. This study aims to identify occupant and household characteristics that are associated with residential fires in a rural cohort. Methods: Of 1,005 households contacted in a single rural county, 691…

Using risk analysis to reveal opportunities for the management of unplanned ignitions in wilderness

Treesearch

Kevin Barnett; Carol Miller; Tyron J. Venn

2016-01-01

A goal of fire management in wilderness is to allow fire to play its natural ecological role without intervention. Unfortunately, most unplanned ignitions in wilderness are suppressed, in part because of the risk they might pose to values outside of the wilderness. We capitalize on recent advances in fire risk analysis to demonstrate a risk-based approach for revealing...

Can private land conservation reduce wildfire risk to homes? A case study in San Diego County, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butsic, Van; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bar-Massada, Avi

2017-01-01

The purchase of private land for conservation purposes is a common way to prevent the exploitation of sensitive ecological areas. However, private land conservation can also provide other benefits, one of these being natural hazard reduction. Here, we investigated the impacts of private land conservation on fire risk to homes in San Diego County, California. We coupled an econometric land use change model with a model that estimates the probability of house loss due to fire in order to compare fire risk at the county and municipality scale under alternative private land purchasing schemes and over a 20 year time horizon. We found that conservation purchases could reduce fire risk on this landscape, and the amount of risk reduction was related to the targeting approach used to choose which parcels were conserved. Conservation land purchases that targeted parcels designated as high fire hazard resulted in lower fire risk to homes than purchases that targeted low costs or high likelihood to subdivide. This result was driven by (1) preventing home placement in fire prone areas and (2) taking land off the market, and hence increasing development densities in other areas. These results raise the possibility that resource conservation and fire hazard reduction may benefit from combining efforts. With adequate planning, future conservation purchases could have synergistic effects beyond just protecting ecologically sensitive areas.

Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2009-08-15

The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements model. The results of mathematical simulations of real scale fire engulfment scenarios that may follow accidents involving LPG tankers proved the effectiveness of the thermal protections in preventing the "fired" BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion) scenario. The presence of a thermal coating greatly increases the "time to failure", providing a time lapse that in the European experience may be considered sufficient to allow the start of effective mitigation actions by fire brigades. The results obtained were used to calculate the expected reduction of individual and societal risk due to LPG transportation in real case scenarios. The analysis confirmed that the introduction of passive fire protections turns out in a significant reduction of risk, up to an order of magnitude in the case of individual risk and of about 50% if the expectation value is considered. Thus, the adoption of passive fire protections, not compulsory in European regulations, may be an effective technical measure for risk reduction, and may contribute to achieve the control of "major accidents hazards" cited by the European legislation.

Development at the wildland-urban interface and the mitigation of forest-fire risk.

PubMed

Spyratos, Vassilis; Bourgeron, Patrick S; Ghil, Michael

2007-09-04

This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.

Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

2015-01-01

In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

Estimation of the Forest Fire Risk in Indonesia based on Satellite Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, H.; Takahashi, Y.; Hashimoto, A.; Akita, M.; Hasegawa, Y.; Ogino, Y.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.

2016-12-01

To minimize forest fires in tropical area is extremely important, because the fire has a large impact on global warming, biodiversity, and human society. In the previous study, Shimada and Ishibashi monitored the ground-water lever from the value of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained in Kalimantan Island to predict where the forest fires will happen. We have developed a method to map the forest fire risk by calculating the value of Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index 2 (MSAVI2). Moreover, we investigated the relation between the distance from a road as an artificial factor and the occurrence of the fire.First, calculating the MSAVI2 from Landsat 7 and 8 images of August, 2015 around Martapura in South Sumatra, Indonesia, we mapped the area where the plants were stressed. Next, we checked the degrees of matching between the area of low MSAVI2 and the forest fire points.As a result, half of the fires happened in the area having the MSAVI2 values of 0.20 to 0.35. When we focused on only the area which is over 5 kilometers far from a road, the degrees of matching became higher; it rose up to 62 percent.Those results indicate that the fire risks relate to the dry area calculated as low MSAVI2 in the case with less human activities. We need to consider an effect of artificial factors to estimate the whole risk of forest fire.In conclusion, the map of forest fire risk by calculating the value of MSAVI2 is applicable to an area with less artificial factor, while we have to take the effect of artificial fire factor into the consideration.

Which subgroups of fire fighters are more prone to work-related diminished health requirements?

PubMed

Plat, Marie-Christine J; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Sluiter, Judith K

2012-10-01

To determine whether certain subgroups of fire fighters are prone to work-related diminished health requirements. The health requirements for fire-fighting were tested in a workers' health surveillance (WHS) setting. These health requirements included psychological, physical and sense-related components as well as cardiovascular risk factors. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for the presence of the diminished health requirements were calculated for the subgroups of gender, professionalism and age. The prevalence of diminished psychological requirements was equivalent among the subgroups, and no significant high-risk group was identified. As compared to men fire fighters, women fire fighters were more likely to have diminished physical requirements (OR 28.5; 95% CI 12.1-66.9) and less likely to have cardiovascular risk factors (OR 0.3; 0.1-0.5). As compared to volunteer fire fighters, professionals were less likely to have diminished physical requirements (OR 0.5; 0.3-0.9), but professionals had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors with an odds ratio of 1.9 (1.1-3.2). As compared to the youngest fire fighters, the oldest fire fighters were more likely to have diminished sense-related requirements (OR 7.1; 3.4-15.2); a similar comparison could be made between oldest and middle-aged fire fighters (OR 5.1; 2.5-10.5). In addition, the oldest fire fighters were more likely to have cardiovascular risk factors when compared to the youngest (OR 4.4; 1.7-11.1) and to the middle-aged fire fighters (OR 3.1; 1.2-7.9). Subgroups (gender, professionalism and age) of fire fighters are prone to at least one specific work-related diminished health requirement. Therefore, parts of the WHS could be applied with more attention to these high-risk groups.

Examining the relative effects of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatment on fire behaviour--a simulation study.

PubMed

Penman, T D; Collins, L; Price, O F; Bradstock, R A; Metcalf, S; Chong, D M O

2013-12-15

Large budgets are spent on both suppression and fuel treatments in order to reduce the risk of wildfires. There is little evidence regarding the relative contribution of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfires. Here we undertake a simulation study in the Sydney Basin, Australia, to examine this question using a fire behaviour model (Phoenix Rapidfire). Results of the study indicate that fire behaviour is most strongly influenced by fire weather. Suppression has a greater influence on whether a fire reaches 5 ha in size compared to fuel treatments. In contrast, fuel treatments have a stronger effect on the fire size and maximum distance the fire travels. The study suggests that fire management agencies will receive additional benefits from fuel treatment if they are located in areas which suppression resources can respond rapidly and attempt to contain the fires. No combination of treatments contained all fires, and the proportion of uncontained fires increased under more severe fire weather when the greatest number of properties are lost. Our study highlights the importance of alternative management strategies to reduce the risk of property loss. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The "Let's Get Alarmed!" initiative: a smoke alarm giveaway programme.

PubMed

DiGuiseppi, C; Slater, S; Roberts, I; Adams, L; Sculpher, M; Wade, A; McCarthy, M

1999-09-01

To reduce fires and fire related injuries by increasing the prevalence of functioning smoke alarms in high risk households. The programme was delivered in an inner London area with above average material deprivation and below average smoke alarm ownership. The target population included low income and rental households and households with elderly persons or young children. Forty wards, averaging 4000 households each, were randomised to intervention or control status. Free smoke alarms and fire safety information were distributed in intervention wards by community groups and workers as part of routine activities and by paid workers who visited target neighbourhoods. Recipients provided data on household age distribution and housing tenure. Programme costs were documented from a societal perspective. Data are being collected on smoke alarm ownership and function, and on fires and related injuries and their costs. Community and paid workers distributed 20,050 smoke alarms, potentially sufficient to increase smoke alarm ownership by 50% in intervention wards. Compared with the total study population, recipients included greater proportions of low income and rental households and households including children under 5 years or adults aged 65 and older. Total programme costs were 145,087 Pounds. It is possible to implement a large scale smoke alarm giveaway programme targeted to high risk households in a densely populated, multicultural, materially deprived community. The programme's effects on the prevalence of installed and functioning alarms and the incidence of fires and fire related injuries, and its cost effectiveness, are being evaluated as a randomized controlled trial.

Monitoring Of Air Quality Parameters For Construction Of Fire Risk Detection Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romancov, I. I.; Dashkovky, A. G.; Panin, V. F.; Melkov, D. N.

2017-01-01

The analysis of fire developmental process is given, which showed that there are seven stages of fire development, a set of phenomena (factors, signs) of fire risk condition, characterized by a set of defined parameters, corresponds to each stage. Observed that the registration of high staging factors (high ambient temperature, content of CO2, etc.) means the registration of actual low staging fire (thermal destruction of materials gases, fumes, etc.) - fire risk situation. It is shown that the decrease of registered factor staging leads to construction of fire preventive and diagnostic systems as the lower is registered stage, the more uncertain is connection between the fact of its detection and a fire. It is indicated that with development of electronic equipment the staging of fire situations factors used for detection is reducing in whole, and also it is noted that for each control object it is necessary to choose (identify) the optimal factor, in particular, in many ways the optimal factor for aircrafts are smokes and their TV image.

[Considering the current state of fire safety in Taiwan's care environment from the perspective of the nation's worst recent hospital fire].

PubMed

Tseng, Wei-Wen; Shih, Chung-Liang; Chien, Shen-Wen

2013-04-01

Taiwan's worst hospital fire in history on October 23rd, 2012 at Sinying Hospital's Bei-Men Branch resulted in 13 elderly patient deaths and over 70 injuries. The heavy casualties were due in part to the serious condition of patients. Some patients on life-support machines were unable to move or be moved. This disaster highlights the issue of fire safety in small-scale hospitals that have transformed existing hospital space into special care environments for elderly patients. Compared with medical centers and general hospitals, these small-scale health facilities are ill equipped to deal properly with fire safety management and emergency response issues due to inadequate fire protection facilities, fire safety equipment, and human resources. Small-scale facilities that offer health care and medical services to mostly immobile patients face fire risks that differ significantly from general health care facilities. This paper focuses on fire risks in small-scale facilities and suggests a strategy for fire prevention and emergency response procedures, including countermeasures for fire risk assessment, management, and emergency response, in order to improve fire safety at these institutions in Taiwan.

Refugee camps, fire disasters and burn injuries.

PubMed

Atiyeh, B S; Gunn, S W A

2017-09-30

In the past five years, no fewer than 15 conflicts have brought unspeakable tragedy and misery to millions across the world. At present, nearly 20 people are forcibly displaced every minute as a result of conflict or persecution, representing a crisis of historic proportions. Many displaced persons end up in camps generally developing in an impromptu fashion, and are totally dependent on humanitarian aid. The precarious condition of temporary installations puts the nearly 700 refugee camps worldwide at high risk of disease, child soldier and terrorist recruitment, and physical and sexual violence. Poorly planned, densely packed refugee settlements are also one of the most pathogenic environments possible, representing high risk for fires with potential for uncontrolled fire spread and development over sometimes quite large areas. Moreover, providing healthcare to refugees comes with its own unique challenges. Internationally recognized guidelines for minimum standards in shelters and settlements have been set, however they remain largely inapplicable. As for fire risk reduction, and despite the high number of fire incidents, it is not evident that fire safety can justify a higher priority. In that regard, a number of often conflicting influences will need to be considered. The greatest challenge remains in balancing the various risks, such as the need/cost of shelter against the fire risk/cost of fire protection.

Refugee camps, fire disasters and burn injuries

PubMed Central

Atiyeh, B.S.; Gunn, S.W.A.

2017-01-01

Summary In the past five years, no fewer than 15 conflicts have brought unspeakable tragedy and misery to millions across the world. At present, nearly 20 people are forcibly displaced every minute as a result of conflict or persecution, representing a crisis of historic proportions. Many displaced persons end up in camps generally developing in an impromptu fashion, and are totally dependent on humanitarian aid. The precarious condition of temporary installations puts the nearly 700 refugee camps worldwide at high risk of disease, child soldier and terrorist recruitment, and physical and sexual violence. Poorly planned, densely packed refugee settlements are also one of the most pathogenic environments possible, representing high risk for fires with potential for uncontrolled fire spread and development over sometimes quite large areas. Moreover, providing healthcare to refugees comes with its own unique challenges. Internationally recognized guidelines for minimum standards in shelters and settlements have been set, however they remain largely inapplicable. As for fire risk reduction, and despite the high number of fire incidents, it is not evident that fire safety can justify a higher priority. In that regard, a number of often conflicting influences will need to be considered. The greatest challenge remains in balancing the various risks, such as the need/cost of shelter against the fire risk/cost of fire protection. PMID:29849526

Numerical Simulation on Smoke Spread and Temperature Distribution in a Corn Starch Explosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, CherngShing; Hsu, JuiPei

2018-01-01

It is discovered from dust explosion accidents in recent years that deep causes of the accidents lies in insufficient cognition of dust explosion danger, and no understanding on danger and information of the dust explosion. In the study, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) evaluation tool is used aiming at Taiwan Formosa Fun Coast explosion accidents. The calculator is used for rebuilding the explosion situation. The factors affecting casualties under explosion are studied. The injured personnel participating in the party are evaluated according to smoke diffusion and temperature distribution for numerical simulation results. Some problems noted in the fire disaster after actual explosion are proposed, rational site analysis is given, thereby reducing dust explosion risk grade.

A qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk perception and treatment options as related to wildfires in the USDA FS Region 3 National Forests

Treesearch

Ingrid M. Martin; Wade E. Martin; Carol B. Raish

2011-01-01

As the incidence of devastating fires rises, managing the risk posed by these fires has become critical. This report provides important information to examine the ways that different groups or disaster subcultures develop the mentalities or perceived realities that affect their views and responses concerning risk and disaster preparedness. Fire risk beliefs and...

Creation and implementation of a certification system for insurability and fire risk classification for forest plantations

Treesearch

Veronica Loewe M.; Victor Vargas; Juan Miguel Ruiz; Andrea Alvarez C.; Felipe Lobo Q.

2015-01-01

Currently, the Chilean insurance market sells forest fire insurance policies and agricultural weather risk policies. However, access to forest fire insurance is difficult for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), with a significant proportion (close to 50%) of forest plantations being without coverage. Indeed, the insurance market that sells forest fire insurance...

Fire Severity and Intensity During Spring Burning in Natural and Masticated Mixed Shrub Woodlands

Treesearch

Tim Bradley; Jennifer Gibson; Windy Bunn

2006-01-01

Fire risk is an ever present management concern in many urban interface regions. To mitigate this risk, land management agencies have expanded their options beyond prescribed fire to include vegetation mastication and other mechanical fuel treatments. This research project examined fire severity and intensity in masticated and unmanipulated units that were burned in...

Pediatric fire deaths in Ontario

PubMed Central

Chen, Yingming Amy; Bridgman-Acker, Karen; Edwards, Jim; Lauwers, Albert Edward

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective To identify the predictors of residential fire deaths in the Ontario pediatric population using systematically collected data from the Office of the Chief Coroner. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Ontario. Participants Children younger than 16 years of age who died in accidental residential fires in Ontario between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2006. Main outcome measures The study retrospectively reviewed the coroner’s case files for 60 subjects who qualified according to the selection criteria. Reviewed documents included the coroner’s investigation statements, autopsy reports, toxicology reports, fire marshal’s reports, police reports, and Children’s Aid Society (CAS) reports. Information on a range of demographic, behavioural, social, and environmental factors was collected. Statistical tests, including relative risk, relative risk confidence intervals, and χ2 tests were performed to determine the correlation between factors of interest and to establish their significance. Results Thirty-nine fire events resulting in 60 deaths occurred between 2001 and 2006. Fire play and electrical failures were the top 2 causes of residential fires. More fires occurred during the night (midnight to 9 am) than during the day (9 am to midnight). Nighttime fires were most commonly due to electrical failures or unattended candles, whereas daytime fires were primarily caused by unsupervised fire play and stove fires. Smoke alarms were present at 32 of 39 fire events (82%), but overall alarm functionality was only 54%. Children from families with a history of CAS involvement were approximately 32 times more likely to die in fires. Conclusion Risk factors for pediatric fire death in Ontario include smoke alarm functionality, fire play, fire escape behaviour, and CAS involvement. Efforts to prevent residential fire deaths should target these populations and risk factors, and primary care physicians should consider education around these issues as a primary preventive strategy for families with young children. PMID:21571705

Reducing hazardous fuels on nonindustrial private forests: factors influencing landowner decisions

Treesearch

A. Paige Fischer

2011-01-01

In mixed-ownership landscapes, fuels conditions on private lands have implications for fire risk on public lands and vice versa. The success of efforts to mitigate fire risk depends on the extent, efficacy, and coordination of treatments on nearby ownerships. Understanding factors in forest owners' decisions to address the risk of wildland fire is therefore...

Using ArcObjects for automating fireshed assessments and analyzing wildfire risk

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Bernhard Bahro; Mark Finney

2006-01-01

Firesheds are geographic units used by the Forest Service to delineate areas with similar fire regimes, fire history, and wildland fire risk issues. Fireshed assessment is a collaborative process where specialists design fuel treatments to mitigate wildfire risk. Fireshed assessments are an iterative process where fuel treatments are proposed for specific stands based...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

Fire characteristics associated with firefighter injury on large federal wildland fires.

PubMed

Britton, Carla; Lynch, Charles F; Torner, James; Peek-Asa, Corinne

2013-02-01

Wildland fires present many injury hazards to firefighters. We estimate injury rates and identify fire-related factors associated with injury. Data from the National Interagency Fire Center from 2003 to 2007 provided the number of injuries in which the firefighter could not return to his or her job assignment, person-days worked, and fire characteristics (year, region, season, cause, fuel type, resistance to control, and structures destroyed). We assessed fire-level risk factors of having at least one reported injury using logistic regression. Negative binomial regression was used to examine incidence rate ratios associated with fire-level risk factors. Of 867 fires, 9.5% required the most complex management and 24.7% required the next-highest level of management. Fires most often occurred in the western United States (82.8%), during the summer (69.6%), caused by lightening (54.9%). Timber was the most frequent fuel source (40.2%). Peak incident management level, person-days of exposure, and the fire's resistance to control were significantly related to the odds of a fire having at least one reported injury. However, the most complex fires had a lower injury incidence rate than less complex fires. Although fire complexity and the number of firefighters were associated with the risk for at least one reported injury, the more experienced and specialized firefighting teams had lower injury incidence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Research on the Application of Risk-based Inspection for the Boiler System in Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Henan

2017-12-01

Power plant boiler is one of the three main equipment of coal-fired power plants, is very tall to the requirement of the safe and stable operation, in a significant role in the whole system of thermal power generation, a risk-based inspection is a kind of pursuit of security and economy of unified system management idea and method, can effectively evaluate equipment risk and reduce the operational cost.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Reduced frequency and severity of residential fires following delivery of fire prevention education by on-duty fire fighters: cluster randomized controlled study.

PubMed

Clare, Joseph; Garis, Len; Plecas, Darryl; Jennings, Charles

2012-04-01

In 2008, Surrey Fire Services, British Columbia, commenced a firefighter-delivered, door-to-door fire-prevention education and smoke alarm examination/installation initiative with the intention of reducing the frequency and severity of residential structure fires in the City of Surrey. High-risk zones within the city were identified and 18,473 home visits were undertaken across seven temporal delivery cohorts (13.8% of non-apartment dwellings in the city). The frequency and severity of fires pre- and post- the home visit intervention was examined in comparison to randomized high-risk cluster controls. Overall, the frequency of fires was found to have reduced in the city overall, however, the reduction in the intervention cohorts was significantly larger than for controls. Furthermore, when fires did occur within the intervention cohorts, smoke detectors were activated more frequently and the fires were confined to the object of origin more often post-home visits. No equivalent pattern was observed for the cluster control. On-duty fire fighters can reduce the frequency and severity of residential fires through targeted, door-to-door distribution of fire prevention education in high-risk areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Restoring mountain big sagebrush communities after prescribed fire in juniper encroached rangelands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Western juniper encroachment into sagebrush steppe communities has reduced livestock forage production, increased erosion and runoff risk, and degraded sagebrush-associated wildlife habitat. We evaluated seeding perennial herbaceous vegetation and sagebrush at five sites where juniper was controlle...

EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL ALERT CHAIN IN CASTILLA Y LEÓN (SPAIN): How can the meteorological risk managers help researchers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López, Laura; Guerrero-Higueras, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez, José Luis; Matía, Pedro; Ortiz de Galisteo, José Pablo; Rodríguez, Vicente; Lorente, José Manuel; Merino, Andrés; Hermida, Lucía; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-Manso, Oscar

2013-04-01

Evaluating the meteorological alert chain, or, how information is transmitted from the meteorological forecasters to the final users, passing through risk managers, is a useful tool that benefits all the links of the chain, especially the meteorology researchers and forecasters. In fact, the risk managers can help significantly to improve meteorological forecasts in different ways. Firstly, by pointing out the most appropriate type of meteorological format, and its characteristics when representing the meteorological information, consequently improving the interpretation of the already-existing forecasts. Secondly, by pointing out the specific predictive needs in their workplaces related to the type of significant meteorological parameters, temporal or spatial range necessary, meteorological products "custom-made" for each type of risk manager, etc. In order to carry out an evaluation of the alert chain in Castilla y León, we opted for the creation of a Panel of Experts made up of personnel specialized in risk management (Responsible for Protection Civil, Responsible for Alert Services and Hydrological Planning of Hydrographical Confederations, Responsible for highway maintenance, and management of fires, fundamentally). In creating this panel, a total of twenty online questions were evaluated, and the majority of the questions were multiple choice or open-ended. Some of the results show how the risk managers think that it would be interesting, or very interesting, to carry out environmental educational campaigns about the meteorological risks in Castilla y León. Another result is the elevated importance that the risk managers provide to the observation data in real-time (real-time of wind, lightning, relative humidity, combined indices of risk of avalanches, snowslides, index of fires due to convective activity, etc.) Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Junta de Castilla y León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2.

[Forest fire risk assessment for China under different climate scenarios.

PubMed

Tian, Xiao Rui; Dai, Xuan; Wang, Ming Yu; Zhao, Feng Jun; Shu, Li Fu

2016-03-01

Forest fire risk depends on the hazard factors, affected body, and hazard prevention and reduction ability. The integrated risk assessment is the foundation for developing scientific fire mana-gement policies and carrying out the forest fire prevention measures. A forest fire risk assessment model and index system were established based on the classic natural disaster risk model and available data, and the model was used to assess the forest fire risks in past and future. The future climate scenario data included outputs from five global climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Each component index of Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was calculated daily for each grid in 1987-2050 for the historical observations and future climate scenarios according to the maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation. The results showed that areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 1987-2010 accounted for 21.2% and 6.2%, respectively, which were distributed in Greater Xing'an Mountains and the Changbai Mountain area, most parts of Yunnan, and many fragment areas in southern China. The areas with high and very high burn possibilities were mainly distributed in the northeast and southwest region, accounting for 13.1% and 4.0%, respectively. Compared with the observation period, the areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 2021-2050 would increase by 0.6%, 5.5%, 2.3%, and 3.5% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 respectively, and North China would show significant increase. The regions with high-risk forest fires would also increase due to climate change, with the most significant increase under RCP 8.5 scenario (+1.6%).

Israel wildfires: future trends, impacts and mitigation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittenberg, Lea

2017-04-01

Forest fires in the Euro-Mediterranean region burn about 450,000 ha each year. In Israel, the frequency and extent of wildfires have been steadily increasing over the past decades, culminating in several large and costly fires in 2010, 2012 and 2016. The extensive development of forest areas since the 1950's and the accumulation of fuel in the forests, has led to increased occurrences of high intensity fires. Land-use changes and human population growth are the most prevailing and common determinant of wildfire occurrence and impacts. Climate extremes, possibly already a sign of regional climate change, are another frequent determinant of increasing wildfire risk. Therefore, the combination of extreme dry spells, high fuel loads and increased anthropogenic pressure on the open spaces result in an overall amplified wildfire risk. These fires not only cause loss of life and damage to properties but also carry serious environmental repercussions. Combustion of standing vegetation and the leaf litter leave the soil bare and vulnerable to runoff and erosion, thereby increasing risks of flooding. Today, all of Israel's open spaces, forests, natural parks, major metropolitan centers, towns and villages are embedded within the wildland urban interface (WUI). Typically, wildfires near or in the WUI occur on uplands and runoff generated from the burned area poses flooding risks in urban and agricultural zones located downstream. Post-fire management aims at reducing associated hazards as collapsing trees and erosion risk. Often the time interval between a major fire and the definition of priority sites is in the order of days-to-weeks since administrative procedures, financial estimates and implementation of post-fire salvage logging operations require time. Defining the magnitude of the burn scar and estimating its potential impact on runoff and erosion must therefore be done quickly. A post-fire burn severity, runoff and erosion model is a useful tool in estimating potential risks and management strategic. Moreover, national agencies and local authorities must decide on a range of post-fire measures to mitigate risks quickly since most large fires occur late in summer shortly before the winter season. Possible climate changes, socio-economic trends, and intense land use pressures are contributing factors in a national challenge to deal with forest fires along the WUI. However, in order to support integrated fire preparedness, response, management and recovery at the national, regional and local scales, stronger research and planning effort are required. This includes long-term monitoring programs and a systematic, standardized data acquisition scheme, compiling fire history, landscape-fire spread, mitigation and assessment of the immediate fire effects, land use changes and weather data. Knowledge of both short and long-term impacts of wildfire is essential for effective risk assessment, policy formulation and wildfire management.

Health and air quality benefits of policies to reduce coal-fired power plant emissions: a case study in North Carolina.

PubMed

Li, Ya-Ru; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

2014-09-02

We analyzed sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions and fine particulate sulfate (PM2.5 sulfate) concentrations in the southeastern United States during 2002-2012, in order to evaluate the health impacts in North Carolina (NC) of the NC Clean Smokestacks Act of 2002. This state law required progressive reductions (beyond those mandated by federal rules) in pollutant emissions from NC's coal-fired power plants. Although coal-fired power plants remain NC's leading SO2 source, a trend analysis shows significant declines in SO2 emissions (-20.3%/year) and PM2.5 sulfate concentrations (-8.7%/year) since passage of the act. Emissions reductions were significantly greater in NC than in neighboring states, and emissions and PM2.5 sulfate concentration reductions were highest in NC's piedmont region, where 9 of the state's 14 major coal-fired power plants are located. Our risk model estimates that these air quality improvements decreased the risk of premature death attributable to PM2.5 sulfate in NC by about 63%, resulting in an estimated 1700 (95% CI: 1500, 1800) deaths prevented in 2012. These findings lend support to recent studies predicting that implementing the proposed federal Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (recently upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court) could substantially decrease U.S. premature deaths attributable to coal-fired power plant emissions.

The Application for a Prediction of the Coal Spontaneous Ignition - Predisam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moni, Vlastimil; Klouda, Petr; Blata, Jan; Helebrant, František

2017-06-01

The article follows the research of the project number TA01020351 called "The research of possibilities when predicting steam origin and consequent spontaneous ignition of brown coal fuels" which was researched with the support of the Technological Agency in the Czech Republic in 2011-2014 in the connection with a realized technical research. Therefore, it gives a summary information about the evaluation of the risk degree for the origin of spontaneous ignitions of the brown coal. The presented way of evaluation is based on a numeric expression of a value for MHU criteria - the point load of particular indicators is added together with other results gained from this research project. Then, more information is taken from companies running the dumps of brown coal products - both for suppliers (mining companies) and big consumers (power engineering). The complex knowledge about prediction of the origin of the spontaneous ignition enables to make an early response to eliminate a threat of mining fire in open pit mines or on the dumps of coal products. Consequently, it reduces the risk of fire and breakdowns of transportation means DPD, heavy machines and preparation plants. The working injuries are reduced as well - burns by coal in fire or inhalation of gas products from imperfect combustion.

Structural fire risk of Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário

2017-04-01

Portugal is on the top of the European countries most affected by vegetation fires which underlines the importance of the existence of an updated and coherent fire risk map. This map represent a valuable supporting tool for forest and fire management decisions, focus prevention activities, improve the efficiency of fire detection systems, manage resources and actions of fire fighting with greater effectiveness. Therefore this study proposed a structural fire risk map of the vegetated area of Portugal using a deterministic approach based on the concept of fire risk currently accepted by the scientific community which consists in the combination of the fire hazard and the potential economic damage. The existing fire susceptibility map for Portugal based on the slope, land cover and fire probability, was adopted and updated by the use of a higher resolution digital terrain model, longer burnt area perimeter dataset (1975 - 2013) and the entire set of Corine land cover inventories. Five susceptibility classes were mapped to be in accordance with the Portuguese law and the results confirms the good performance of this model not only in terms of the favourability scores but also in the predictive values. Considering three different scenarios of (maximum, mean, and minimum annual) burnt area, fire hazard were estimate. The vulnerability scores and monetary values of species defined in the literature and by law were used to calculate the potential economic damage. The result was a fire risk map that identifies the areas more prone to be affected by fires in the future and provides an estimate of the economic damage of the fire which will be a valuable tool for forest and fire managers and to minimize the economic and environmental consequences of vegetation fires in Portugal. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; (ii) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF and ISA for providing the fire data.

Operating room fires: a closed claims analysis.

PubMed

Mehta, Sonya P; Bhananker, Sanjay M; Posner, Karen L; Domino, Karen B

2013-05-01

To assess patterns of injury and liability associated with operating room (OR) fires, closed malpractice claims in the American Society of Anesthesiologists Closed Claims Database since 1985 were reviewed. All claims related to fires in the OR were compared with nonfire-related surgical anesthesia claims. An analysis of fire-related claims was performed to identify causative factors. There were 103 OR fire claims (1.9% of 5,297 surgical claims). Electrocautery was the ignition source in 90% of fire claims. OR fire claims more frequently involved older outpatients compared with other surgical anesthesia claims (P < 0.01). Payments to patients were more often made in fire claims (P < 0.01), but payment amounts were lower (median $120,166) compared to nonfire surgical claims (median $250,000, P < 0.01). Electrocautery-induced fires (n = 93) increased over time (P < 0.01) to 4.4% claims between 2000 and 2009. Most (85%) electrocautery fires occurred during head, neck, or upper chest procedures (high-fire-risk procedures). Oxygen served as the oxidizer in 95% of electrocautery-induced OR fires (84% with open delivery system). Most electrocautery-induced fires (n = 75, 81%) occurred during monitored anesthesia care. Oxygen was administered via an open delivery system in all high-risk procedures during monitored anesthesia care. In contrast, alcohol-containing prep solutions and volatile compounds were present in only 15% of OR fires during monitored anesthesia care. Electrocautery-induced fires during monitored anesthesia care were the most common cause of OR fires claims. Recognition of the fire triad (oxidizer, fuel, and ignition source), particularly the critical role of supplemental oxygen by an open delivery system during use of the electrocautery, is crucial to prevent OR fires. Continuing education and communication among OR personnel along with fire prevention protocols in high-fire-risk procedures may reduce the occurrence of OR fires.

Forest landowner decisions and the value of information under fire risk.

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We estimate the value of three types of information about fire risk to a nonindustrial forest landowner: the relationship between fire arrival rates and stand age, the magnitude of fire arrival rates, and the efficacy of fuel reduction treatment. Our model incorporates planting density and the level and timing of fuel reduction treatment as landowner decisions. These...

A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac C. Grenfell; Karin L. Riley; Karen C. Short

2011-01-01

This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for...

Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

2018-01-01

This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

16 CFR § 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. § 1145.3 Section § 1145.3 Commercial...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

Risk Based Reliability Centered Maintenance of DOD Fire Protection Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

2.2.3 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis ( FMEA )............................ 2.2.4 Failure Mode Risk Characterization...Step 2 - System functions and functional failures definition Step 3 - Failure mode and effect analysis ( FMEA ) Step 4 - Failure mode risk...system). The Interface Location column identifies the location where the FMEA of the fire protection system began or stopped. For example, for the fire

Explosion and/or fire risk assessment methodology: a common approach, structured for underground coalmine environments / Metoda szacowania ryzyka wybuchu i pożarów: podejście ogólne, dostosowane do środowiska kopalni podziemnej

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioca, Ionel-Lucian; Moraru, Roland Iosif

2012-10-01

In order to meet statutory requirements concerning the workers health and safety, it is necessary for mine managers within Valea Jiului coal basin in Romania to address the potential for underground fires and explosions and their impact on the workforce and the mine ventilation systems. Highlighting the need for a unified and systematic approach of the specific risks, the authors are developing a general framework for fire/explosion risk assessment in gassy mines, based on the quantification of the likelihood of occurrence and gravity of the consequences of such undesired events and employing Root-Cause analysis method. It is emphasized that even a small fire should be regarded as being a major hazard from the point of view of explosion initiation, should a combustible atmosphere arise. The developed methodology, for the assessment of underground fire and explosion risks, is based on the known underground explosion hazards, fire engineering principles and fire test criteria for potentially combustible materials employed in mines.

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements.

PubMed

Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

2017-02-01

Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management.

PubMed

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G; McIntire, Eliot J B

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover's direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate-fire-fuels systems.

History of Fire Events in the U.S. Commercial Nuclear Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bijan Najafi; Joglar-Biloch, Francisco; Kassawara, Robert P.

2002-07-01

Over the past decade, interest in performance-based fire protection has increased within the nuclear industry. In support of this growing interest, in 1997 the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed a long-range plan to develop/improve data and tools needed to support Risk-Informed/Performance-Based fire protection. This plan calls for continued improvement in collection and use of information obtained from fire events at nuclear plants. The data collection process has the objectives of improving the insights gained from such data and reducing the uncertainty in fire risk and fire modeling methods in order to make them a more reliable basis for performancemore » based fire protection programs. In keeping with these objectives, EPRI continues to collect, review and analyze fire events in support of the nuclear industry. EPRI collects these records in cooperation with the Nuclear Electric Insurance Limited (NEIL), by compiling public fire event reports and by direct solicitation of U.S. nuclear facilities. EPRI fire data collection project is based on the principle that the understanding of history is one of the cornerstones of improving fire protection technology and practice. Therefore, the goal has been to develop and maintain a comprehensive database of fire events with flexibility to support various aspects of fire protection engineering. With more than 1850 fire records over a period of three decades and 2400 reactor years, this is the most comprehensive database of nuclear power industry fire events in existence today. In general, the frequency of fires in the U.S. commercial nuclear industry remains constant. In few cases, e.g., transient fires and fires in BWR offgas/recombiner systems, where either increasing or decreasing trends are observed, these trends tend to slow after 1980. The key issues in improving quality of the data remain to be consistency of the recording and reporting of fire events and difficulties in collection of records. EPRI has made significant progress towards improving the quality of the fire events data through use of multiple collection methods as well as its review and verification. To date EPRI has used this data to develop a generic fire ignition frequency model for U.S. nuclear power industry (Ref. 1, 4 and 5) as well as to support other models in support of EPRI Fire Risk Methods such as a cable fire manual suppression model. EPRI will continue its effort to collect and analyze operating data to support risk informed/performance based fire safety engineering, including collection and analysis of impairment data for fire protection systems and features. This paper provides details on the collection and application of fire events to risk informed/performance based fire protection. The paper also provides valuable insights into improving both collection and use of fire events data. (authors)« less

Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture to Estimate Fire Risk in Tropical Peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadap, N.; Cobb, A.; Hoyt, A.; Harvey, C. F.; Konings, A. G.

2017-12-01

Tropical peatlands in Equatorial Asia have become more vulnerable to fire due to deforestation and peatland drainage over the last 30 years. In these regions, water table depth has been shown to play an important role in mediating fire risk as it serves as a proxy for peat moisture content. However, water table depth observations are sparse and expensive. Soil moisture could provide a more direct indicator of fire risk than water table depth. In this study, we use new soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite to demonstrate that - contrary to popular wisdom - remotely sensed soil moisture observations are possible over most Southeast Asian peatlands. Soil moisture estimation in this region was previously thought to be impossible over tropical peatlands because of dense vegetation cover. We show that vegetation density is sufficiently low across most Equatorial Asian peatlands to allow soil moisture estimation, and hypothesize that deforestation and other anthropogenic changes in land cover have combined to reduce overall vegetation density sufficient to allow soil moisture estimation. We further combine burned area estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database and SMAP soil moisture retrievals to show that soil moisture provides a strong signal for fire risk in peatlands, with fires occurring at a much greater rate over drier soils. We will also develop an explicit fire risk model incorporating soil moisture with additional climatic, land cover, and anthropogenic predictor variables.

Post-fire land treatments and wind erosion -- lessons from the Milford Flat Fire, UT, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Mark E.; Bowker, Matthew A.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Goldstein, Harland L.

2012-01-01

We monitored sediment flux at 25 plots located at the northern end of the 2007 Milford Flat Fire (Lake Bonneville Basin, west-central Utah) to examine the effectiveness of post-fire rehabilitation treatments in mitigating risks of wind erosion during the first 3 years post fire. Maximum values were recorded during Mar–Jul 2009 when horizontal sediment fluxes measured with BSNE samplers ranged from 16.3 to 1251.0 g m−2 d−1 in unburned plots (n = 8; data represent averages of three sampler heights per plot), 35.2–555.3 g m−2 d−1 in burned plots that were not treated (n = 5), and 21.0–44,010.7 g m−2 d−1 in burned plots that received one or more rehabilitation treatments that disturbed the soil surface (n = 12). Fluxes during this period exhibited extreme spatial variability and were contingent on upwind landscape characteristics and surficial soil properties, with maximum fluxes recorded in settings downwind of treated areas with long treatment length and unstable fine sand. Nonlinear patterns of wind erosion attributable to soil and fetch effects highlight the profound importance of landscape setting and soil properties as spatial factors to be considered in evaluating risks of alternative post-fire rehabilitation strategies. By Mar–Jul 2010, average flux for all plots declined by 73.6% relative to the comparable 2009 period primarily due to the establishment and growth of exotic annual plants rather than seeded perennial plants. Results suggest that treatments in sensitive erosion-prone settings generally exacerbated rather than mitigated wind erosion during the first 3 years post fire, although long-term effects remain uncertain.

U.S. Civil Air Show Crashes, 1993 to 2013: Burden, Fatal Risk Factors, and Evaluation of a Risk Index for Aviation Crashes.

PubMed

Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Osorio, Victor B

2015-01-01

This study provides new public health data about U.S. civil air shows. Risk factors for fatalities in civil air show crashes were analyzed. The value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes was evaluated. With the use of the FAA's General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and the National Transportation Safety Board's data, the incidence of civil air show crashes from 1993 to 2013 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes were analyzed by means of regression methods. The FIA index was validated to predict fatal outcomes by using the factors of fire, instrument conditions, and away-from-airport location, and was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The civil air show crash rate was 31 crashes per 1,000 civil air events. Of the 174 civil air show crashes that occurred during the study period, 91 (52%) involved at least one fatality; on average, 1.1 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with four major risk factors: fire [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.4 to 20.6, P < .001], pilot error (AOR = 5.2, 95% CI = 1.8 to 14.5, P = .002), aerobatic flight (AOR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.6 to 8.2, P = .002), and off-airport location (AOR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.5, P = .003). The area under the FIA score's ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI = 0.64 to 0.78). Civil air show crashes were marked by a high risk of fatal outcomes to pilots in aerobatic performances but rare mass casualties. The FIA score was not a valid measurement of fatal risk in civil air show crashes.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management

PubMed Central

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G.; McIntire, Eliot J. B.

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover’s direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate–fire–fuels systems. PMID:28609467

EPRI/NRC-RES fire human reliability analysis guidelines.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Stuart R.; Cooper, Susan E.; Najafi, Bijan

2010-03-01

During the 1990s, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed methods for fire risk analysis to support its utility members in the preparation of responses to Generic Letter 88-20, Supplement 4, 'Individual Plant Examination - External Events' (IPEEE). This effort produced a Fire Risk Assessment methodology for operations at power that was used by the majority of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) in support of the IPEEE program and several NPPs overseas. Although these methods were acceptable for accomplishing the objectives of the IPEEE, EPRI and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recognized that they required upgrades to support currentmore » requirements for risk-informed, performance-based (RI/PB) applications. In 2001, EPRI and the USNRC's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) embarked on a cooperative project to improve the state-of-the-art in fire risk assessment to support a new risk-informed environment in fire protection. This project produced a consensus document, NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), entitled 'Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities' which addressed fire risk for at power operations. NUREG/CR-6850 developed high level guidance on the process for identification and inclusion of human failure events (HFEs) into the fire PRA (FPRA), and a methodology for assigning quantitative screening values to these HFEs. It outlined the initial considerations of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and related fire effects that may need to be addressed in developing best-estimate human error probabilities (HEPs). However, NUREG/CR-6850 did not describe a methodology to develop best-estimate HEPs given the PSFs and the fire-related effects. In 2007, EPRI and RES embarked on another cooperative project to develop explicit guidance for estimating HEPs for human failure events under fire generated conditions, building upon existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This document provides a methodology and guidance for conducting a fire HRA. This process includes identification and definition of post-fire human failure events, qualitative analysis, quantification, recovery, dependency, and uncertainty. This document provides three approaches to quantification: screening, scoping, and detailed HRA. Screening is based on the guidance in NUREG/CR-6850, with some additional guidance for scenarios with long time windows. Scoping is a new approach to quantification developed specifically to support the iterative nature of fire PRA quantification. Scoping is intended to provide less conservative HEPs than screening, but requires fewer resources than a detailed HRA analysis. For detailed HRA quantification, guidance has been developed on how to apply existing methods to assess post-fire fire HEPs.« less

Simulations of Forest Fires by the Cellular Automata Model "ABBAMPAU"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Gregorio, S.; Bendicenti, E.

2003-04-01

Forest fires represent a serious environmental problem, whose negative impact is becoming day by day more worrisome. Forest fires are very complex phenomena; that need an interdisciplinary approach. The adopted method to modelling involves the definition of local rules, from which the global behaviour of the system can emerge. The paradigm of Cellular Automata was applied and the model ABBAMPAU was projected to simulate the evolution of forest fires. Cellular Automata features (parallelism and a-centrism) seem to match the system "forest fire"; the parameters, describing globally a forest fire, i.e. propagation rate, flame length and direction, fireline intensity, fire duration time et c. are mainly depending on some local characteristics i.e. vegetation type (live and dead fuel), relative humidity, fuel moisture, heat, territory morphology (altitude, slope), et c.. The only global characteristic is given by wind velocity and direction, but wind velocity and direction is locally altered according to the morphology; therefore wind has also to be considered at local level. ABBAMPAU accounts for the following aspects of the phenomenon: effects of combustion in surface and crown fire inside the cell, crown fire triggering off; surface and crown fire spread, determination of the local wind rate and direction. A validation of ABBAMPAU was tested on a real case of forest fire, in the territory of Villaputzu, Sardinia island, August 22nd, 1998. First simulations account for the main characteristics of the phenomenon and agree with the observations. The results show that the model could be applied for the forest fire preventions, the productions of risk scenarios and the evaluation of the forest fire environmental impact.

Application of a mesoscale atmospheric coupled fire model BRAMS-SFIRE to Alentejo wildland fire and comparison of performance with the fire model WRF-SFIRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menezes, Isilda; Freitas, Saulo; Stockler, Rafael; Mello, Rafael; Ribeiro, Nuno; Corte-Real, João; Surový, Peter

2015-04-01

Models of fuel with the identification of vegetation patterns of Montado ecosystem in Portugal was incorporated in the mesoscale Brazilian Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) and coupled with a spread wildland fire model. The BRAMS-FIRE is a new system developed by the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil) and the Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrâneas (ICAAM, Portugal). The fire model used in this effort was originally, developed by Mandel et al. (2013) and further incorporated in the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). Two grids of high spatial resolution were configured with surface input data and fuel models integrated for simulations using both models BRAMS-SFIRE and WRF-SFIRE. One grid was placed in the plain land and the other one in the hills to evaluate different types of fire propagation and calibrate BRAMS-SFIRE. The objective is simulating the effects of atmospheric circulation in local scale, namely the movements of the heat front and energy release associated to it, obtained by this two models in an episode of wildland fire which took place in Alentejo area in the last decade, for application to planning and evaluations of agro wildland fire risks. We aim to model the behavior of forest fires through a set of equations whose solutions provide quantitative values of one or more variables related to the propagation of fire, described by semi-empirical expressions that are complemented by experimental data allow to obtain the main variables related advancing the perimeter of the fire, as the propagation speed, the intensity of the fire front and fuel consumption and its interaction with atmospheric dynamic system References Mandel, J., J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, and M. Vejmelka, 2013. New features in WRF-SFIRE and the wildfire forecasting and danger system in Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, submitted, Numerical Wildfires, Cargèse, France, May 13-18, 2013.

Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

2011-01-01

Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy: A vision for an innovative and integrated approach to managing the risks

Treesearch

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy Project Management Team

2006-01-01

The Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy (CWFS) provides a vision for a new, innovative, and integrated approach to wildland fire management in Canada. It was developed under the auspices of the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and seeks to balance the social, ecological, and economic aspects of wildland fire through a risk management framework that emphasizes hazard...

PREFER: a European service providing forest fire management support products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftychidis, George; Laneve, Giovanni; Ferrucci, Fabrizio; Sebastian Lopez, Ana; Lourenco, Louciano; Clandillon, Stephen; Tampellini, Lucia; Hirn, Barbara; Diagourtas, Dimitris; Leventakis, George

2015-06-01

PREFER is a Copernicus project of the EC-FP7 program which aims developing spatial information products that may support fire prevention and burned areas restoration decisions and establish a relevant web-based regional service for making these products available to fire management stakeholders. The service focuses to the Mediterranean region, where fire risk is high and damages from wildfires are quite important, and develop its products for pilot areas located in Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece. PREFER aims to allow fire managers to have access to online resources, which shall facilitate fire prevention measures, fire hazard and risk assessment, estimation of fire impact and damages caused by wildfire as well as support monitoring of post-fire regeneration and vegetation recovery. It makes use of a variety of products delivered by space borne sensors and develop seasonal and daily products using multi-payload, multi-scale and multi-temporal analysis of EO data. The PREFER Service portfolio consists of two main suite of products. The first refers to mapping products for supporting decisions concerning the Preparedness/Prevention Phase (ISP Service). The service delivers Fuel, Hazard and Fire risk maps for this purpose. Furthermore the PREFER portfolio includes Post-fire vegetation recovery, burn scar maps, damage severity and 3D fire damage assessment products in order to support relative assessments required in context of the Recovery/Reconstruction Phase (ISR Service) of fire management.

Bulletin of Forest Fire risk in Albania- The experience of the Albania National Centre for forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdufi, I.; Jaupaj, O.; Marku, M.; Deda, M.; Fiori, E.; D'Andrea, M.; Biondi, G.; Fioruci, P.; Massabò, M.; Zorba, P.; Gjonaj, M.

2012-04-01

In the territory of Albania usually every year around 1000 ha are affected by forest fires, from which about 500 ha are completely destroyed. The number of forest fires (nf), with the burning surface (bs) in years has been like this: during the years 1988-1998: nf / bs = 2.19, 1998-2001: nf / bs = 5.66, year 2002 -2005: nf / bs = 8.2, and during the years 2005-2006: nf / bs = 11.9, while economic losses in a year by forest fires is about 2 million of Euro. The increase in years of these figures and the last floods which happened in the last two years in Shkoder, led to an international cooperation, that between the Italian Civil Protection Department and the Albania General Directorate of Civil Emergency. The focus of this cooperation was the building capacity of the Albanian National System of Civil Protection in forecasting, monitoring and prevention forest fires and floods risks. As a result of this collaboration the "National Center for the Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks", was set up at the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment. The Center is the first of its kind in Albania. The mission of the Center is the prediction and monitoring of the forest fire and flood risk in the Albanian territory, as a tools for risk reduction and mitigation. The first step to achieve this strategy was the implementation of the forest fires risk forecast model "RISICO". RISICO was adapted for whole Albania territory by CIMA Research Foundation. The Center, in the summer season, issues a daily bulletin. The bulletin reports the potential risk scenarios related with the ignition and propagation of fires in Albania. The bulletin is broadcasted through email or fax within 12.00 AM of each working day. It highlights where and when severe risk conditions may occur within the next 48 hours

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hawbaker, Todd J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hammer, Roger B.; Keuler, Nicholas S.; Clayton, Murray K.

2013-01-01

National-scale analyses of fire occurrence are needed to prioritize fire policy and management activities across the United States. However, the drivers of national-scale patterns of fire occurrence are not well understood, and how the relative importance of human or biophysical factors varies across the country is unclear. Our research goal was to model the drivers of fire occurrence within ecoregions across the conterminous United States. We used generalized linear models to compare the relative influence of human, vegetation, climate, and topographic variables on fire occurrence in the United States, as measured by MODIS active fire detections collected between 2000 and 2006. We constructed models for all fires and for large fires only and generated predictive maps to quantify fire occurrence probabilities. Areas with high fire occurrence probabilities were widespread in the Southeast, and localized in the Mountain West, particularly in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Probabilities for large-fire occurrence were generally lower, but hot spots existed in the western and south-central United States The probability of fire occurrence is a critical component of fire risk assessments, in addition to vegetation type, fire behavior, and the values at risk. Many of the hot spots we identified have extensive development in the wildland–urban interface and are near large metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrated that human variables were important predictors of both all fires and large fires and frequently exhibited nonlinear relationships. However, vegetation, climate, and topography were also significant variables in most ecoregions. If recent housing growth trends and fire occurrence patterns continue, these areas will continue to challenge policies and management efforts seeking to balance the risks generated by wildfires with the ecological benefits of fire.

Water contamination risks associated with a combination of planned and unplanned fire in south eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, G. J.; Nyman, P.; Langhans, C.; Noske, P. J.; Lane, P. N. J.

2014-12-01

Planned burning reduces fuel loads in forests, potentially reducing the severity of subsequent wildfires. However planned burning also increases the risk of a significant water quality impact by maintaining a proportion of the catchment in a burnt condition conducive to generating high magnitude erosion events (eg. debris flows). Differences in the frequency and magnitude of planned and unplanned fire, combined with poorly understood relationships between fire severity and hydrologic impacts, means that predictions of the net water contamination risks associated with any particular fire regime are difficult to predict. This presentation synthesises results from 10 years of point, plot and catchment-scale post-fire hydrology and erosion studies in SE Australia to estimate the likely benifits and risks of planned burning scenarios from a drinking water supply perspective

Preventing erosive risks after wildfire in Spain: advances and gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández Filgueira, Cristina; Vega Hidalgo, José A.; Fontúrbel Lliteras, Teresa

2017-04-01

Galicia (NW Spain) is one of the most wildfire-affected areas in Western Europe and where the highest soil losses following fire are recorded in the Iberian Peninsula. During the last decade, mitigation of hydrological and erosive risk has been an important objective for researchers and forest managers. For this reason, research carried out has focused on three main issues: i) the development of operational tools to prioritize post-fire soil stabilization actions, based on soil burn severity indicators and remote sensed information, and testing of their ability to reflect degradation risk in relevant soil properties and subsequent soil erosion, ii) the development and testing of different soil stabilization treatments and their effectiveness for reducing erosion, following their application at broad scale, under the specific environmental conditions of Galicia and iii) the assessment of the performance of current erosion models as well as the development of empirical models to predict post-fire soil losses. On the other hand, the use of forest resources is an essential component of the regional incomes in NW Spain and consequently there is a pressing necessity for investigation on techniques suitable for reconciling soil conservation and sustainable use of those resources. In the framework of wildfire impacts this involve many and complex challenges. This scenario contrast with most of the Iberian Peninsula under Mediterranean influence where salvage logging is not a priority. As in other regions, post-fire hydrologic and erosive risk modeling, including threatened resources vulnerability evaluation is also a capital research need, particularly in a climate change context where dramatic changes in drivers such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and fire regime are expected. The study was funded by the National Institute of Agricultural Research of Spain (INIA) through project RTA2014-00011-C06-02, cofunded by FEDER and the Plan de Mejora e Innovación Forestal de Galicia (2010-2020) and INDITEX.

Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2014-05-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify threshold values of indices useful to determine the end of the potential fire season due to fuel status. A weather generator linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Sardinia, Italy. Finally, impacts of future climate change on fire season length at local scale were simulated. Results confirmed that the projected climate scenarios over the Mediterranean area will determine an overall increase of the fire season length.

Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Butsic, Van; Bar-Massada, Avi; Keeley, Jon E.; Tracey, Jeff A.; Fisher, Robert N.

2016-01-01

Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely generalize to any place where high species richness overlaps with hazardous wildland vegetation.

Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach

Treesearch

Cassandra Johnson Gaither; N.C. Poudyal; S. Goodrick; J.M. Bowker; S. Malone; J. Gan

2011-01-01

The southeastern U.S. is one of the more wildland fire prone areas of the country and also contains some of the poorest or most socially vulnerable rural communities. Our project addresses wildland fire risk in this part of the U.S and its intersection with social vulnerability. We examine spatial association between high wildland fire prone areas which also rank high...

Cast Coil Transformer Fire Susceptibility and Reliability Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-04-01

transformers reduce risk to the user compared to liquid-filled units, eliminate environmental impacts, are more efficient than most transformer designs, and...filled units, eliminate environmental impacts, arc more efficient than most transformer designs, and add minimal risk to the facility in a fire situation...add minimal risk to the facility in a fire situation. Cast coil transformers have a long record of operation and have proven to be reliable and

Tailored stakeholder products help provide a vulnerability and adaptation assessment of Greek forests due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Roussos, Anargyros

2014-05-01

Greece, being part of the eastern Mediterranean basin, is an area particularly vulnerable to climate change and associated forest fire risk. The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of Greek forests to fire risk occurrence and identify potential adaptation options within the context of climate change through continuous interaction with local stakeholders. To address their needs, the following tools for the provision of climate information services were developed: 1. An application providing fire risk forecasts for the following 3 days (http://cirrus.meteo.noa.gr/forecast/bolam/index.htm) was developed from NOA to address the needs of short term fire planners. 2. A web-based application providing long term fire risk and other fire related indices changes due to climate change (time horizon up to 2050 and 2100) was developed in collaboration with the WWF Greece office to address the needs of long term fire policy makers (http://www.oikoskopio.gr/map/). 3. An educational tool was built in order to complement the two web-based tools and to further expand knowledge in fire risk modeling to address the needs for in-depth training. In particular, the second product provided the necessary information to assess the exposure to forest fires. To this aim, maps depicting the days with elevated fire risk (FWI>30) both for the control (1961-1990) and the near future period (2021-2050) were created by the web-application. FWI is a daily index that provides numerical ratings of relative fire potential based solely on weather observations. The meteorological inputs to the FWI System are daily noon values of temperature, air relative humidity, 10m wind speed and precipitation during the previous 24 hours. It was found that eastern lowlands are more exposed to fire risk followed by eastern high elevation areas, for both the control and near future period. The next step towards vulnerability assessment was to address sensitivity, ie the human-environmental conditions that can worsen or ameliorate the hazard. In our study static information concerning fire affecting factors, namely the topography and vegetation, was used to create a fire hazard map in order to assess the sensitivity factor. Land cover types for the year 2007 were combined with topographic information deriving from a digital elevation model order to produce these maps. High elevation continental areas were found to be the most sensitive areas followed by the lowland continental areas. Exposure and sensitivity were combined to produce the overall impact of climate change to forest fire risk. The adaptive capacity is defined by the ability of forests to adapt to changing environmental conditions. To assess the adaptive capacity of Greek forests, a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) tool was implemented and used by the stakeholders. The major proposed adaptation measures for Greek forests included fire prevention measures and the inclusion of the private forest covered areas in the fire fighting. Finally, vulnerability of Greek forest to fire was estimated as the overall impact of climate change minus the forests' adaptive capacity and was found to be medium for most areas in the country. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIM-RUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010-265192.

Smoke Sense: Citizen Science Study on Health Risk and Health Risk Communication During Wildfire Smoke Episodes

EPA Science Inventory

Why do we need to communicate smoke impacts on health? Indicence and severity of large fires are increasing. As emissions from the Wildland fires produce air pollution that adversely impacts people's health, incidence and severity of large fires are increasing. As emissions fr...

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements

PubMed Central

Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

2017-01-01

Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix. PMID:28157149

Personal noise exposure assessment from small firearms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kardous, Chucri A.; Murphy, William J.; Willson, Robert D.

2003-04-01

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health conducted noise exposure evaluations of law-enforcement personnel during firearms training at indoor and outdoor firing ranges. A representative cross section of weapons used by officers was measured. Shooters participated in live-fire exercise at an indoor firing range using three different weapons: a Beretta .400 caliber pistol, a Remington 12-gauge shotgun, and an M4 .223-caliber assault rifle. Indoor and outdoor measurements were obtained for the Smith and Wesson .357 pistol and Colt .450 and 9-mm pistols, the Glock .400 pistol, and the Heckler and Koch and Colt AR15 .223 rifles. Impulses were measured using a Bruel and Kjaer 4136 1/4-in. microphone and TASCAM digital audio tape recorder. Relevant impulse noise metrics were calculated. Peak levels ranged from 155 to 168 dB SPL. A-weighted equivalent levels ranged from 124 to 128 dBA. The contributions of the secondary weapon firings were approximately 1 to 9 dBA. Other parameters such as A/B durations, number and mixture of impulses, spectral content, energy, kurtosis, temporal spacing, and hearing protectors' effectiveness were examined. Comparisons of applicable damage risk criteria are presented. Further studies are needed to establish an occupational impulse noise damage risk criterion.

Estimating wildfire risk on a Mojave Desert landscape using remote sensing and field sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Linn, Peter F.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; DeFalco, Lesley A.; Inman, Richard D.; Abella, Scott R.

2013-01-01

Predicting wildfires that affect broad landscapes is important for allocating suppression resources and guiding land management. Wildfire prediction in the south-western United States is of specific concern because of the increasing prevalence and severe effects of fire on desert shrublands and the current lack of accurate fire prediction tools. We developed a fire risk model to predict fire occurrence in a north-eastern Mojave Desert landscape. First we developed a spatial model using remote sensing data to predict fuel loads based on field estimates of fuels. We then modelled fire risk (interactions of fuel characteristics and environmental conditions conducive to wildfire) using satellite imagery, our model of fuel loads, and spatial data on ignition potential (lightning strikes and distance to roads), topography (elevation and aspect) and climate (maximum and minimum temperatures). The risk model was developed during a fire year at our study landscape and validated at a nearby landscape; model performance was accurate and similar at both sites. This study demonstrates that remote sensing techniques used in combination with field surveys can accurately predict wildfire risk in the Mojave Desert and may be applicable to other arid and semiarid lands where wildfires are prevalent.

Protection forest resilience after a fire event: a case study in Vallis, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergani, Chiara; Werlen, Mario; Schwarz, Massimiliano

2016-04-01

Forests are well known to protect against natural hazards such as landslides, rockfall and floods. Nevertheless, they are dynamic ecosystems which are exposed to a variety of disturbances such as windstorms, fires, bark beetle and pathogen outbreaks. Catastrophic disturbances like windstorms and fires usually remove large portions of the canopy, starting a succession process which lead to a complete stand regeneration. Disturbances belong to the natural dynamic of forests, however they are highly undesirable in the case where forest protect infrastructure or settlements. Quantifying the decay and recovery of the protection effect of forests after disturbances is therefore important to evaluate risks and implement appropriate management techniques, when needed. This work analyzes the dynamic of a Scots Pine (Pinus silvestris) protection forests near Visp (Vallis) after a fire event, focusing on root reinforcement, which is the key factor in preventing shallow landslides. Forest cover, root distribution and root mechanical properties were analyzed 4 years after the fire event, and the root reinforcement has been quantified. Furthermore, the contribution of natural regeneration has been evaluated. Results show that the root reinforcement of Scots pine has declined massively in the forest fire area. At a distance of 1.5 m from the tree stem there is a reduction of 60% compared with the live stand. With increasing distance from the stem, the reduction in the reinforcement is even bigger. At a distance of 2.5 meters it is 12% and at 3.5 meters, only 5% of the original root reinforcement. This decrease is due to the decomposition of roots and associated change in the mechanical properties of the wood. The reinforcement of the dead roots in the forest area is estimated between 0.36 kPa and 2.64 kPa. The contribution of the emerging regeneration is estimated on average 0.01 kPa. Overall the stand provides a reinforcement between 0.37 kPa and 2.65 kPa. From the results it can be concluded that the dying roots can still provide a certain root reinforcement; however, the contribution of rejuvenation is too little to compensate the continuously decreasing protective effect in the future time. The time in which a forest can return in the initial state plays therefore a decisive role for contrasting the formation of landslides, which after a forest fire can be triggered at lower precipitation events. The results obtained need now to be implemented in slope stability analysis to compare the protection effect of vegetation before and after the disturbance. This work contributes to provide a first framework to evaluate the efficiency of protection forests before and after a catastrophic event, in order to support risk evaluation and plan possible management actions.

Fire risk and air pollution assessment during the 2007 wildfire events in Greece using the COSMO-ART atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athanasopoulou, E.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Vogel, H.; Rieger, D.; Knote, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Vogel, B.; Karali, A.

2012-04-01

During 2007, Greece experienced an extreme summer and the worst natural hazard in its modern history. Soil dehydration, following a prolonged dry period in combination with hot temperatures and strong winds, yielded favorable conditions for the ignition and spread of wild fires that burnt approximately 200,000 ha of vegetated land (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009; Sifakis et al., 2011). The relationship between meteorology and fire potential can be provided by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is already found applicable in the fire activity of the Mediterranean region (Carvalho et al., 2008). However, lack of meteorological data or remote fire spots can be sources of uncertainties for fire risk estimation. In addition to the direct fire damage, these fires produced large quantities of gaseous air pollutants and particles (PM10) dispersed over the area of Greece. Indeed, PM10 concentration measurements showed two pollution episodes over Athens during late August and early September, 2007 (Liu et al., 2009). Nevertheless, these measurements neither show the large spatial extent of fire effects nor reveal its important role on atmospheric chemistry. In the current study, the application of the atmospheric model COSMO-ART is used to investigate the issues addressed above. COSMO-ART (Vogel et al. 2009) is a regional chemistry transport model (ART stands for Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) online-coupled to the COSMO regional numerical weather prediction and climate model (Baldauf et al. 2011). The current simulations are performed between August 15 and September 15 over Greece with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical extend up to 20 km. The initial and boundary meteorological conditions are derived from a coarser COSMO simulation performed by the German Weather Service. Fire emissions are retrieved from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (van der Werf et al., 2010). The anthropogenic emission database used is the TNO/MACC (Kuenen et al. 2011), while biogenic emissions are calculated online (Vogel et al. 1995). The FWI is calculated from air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation data obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service for several sites in proximity to the fire event areas. In parallel, these data serve as evaluation for the respective model predictions. The satisfactory comparison results enable the FWI calculation using the model data over the burnt areas, where observations are missing. The effect of these fire events on atmospheric chemistry is estimated by analyzing the predictions not only for the mainly affected primary species (carbon monoxide, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and elemental carbon), but also for the secondary pollutants (ozone, organic and nitrate aerosol). The competence of COSMO-ART mass predictions is evaluated by comparing PM10 outputs with published literature results. The weather conditions during the 2007 wildfire events have already been assessed as a typical summertime meteorological regime during the latter part of the century (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009). Therefore, the results presented here can be viewed as representative of a fire event likely to occur by then. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIMRUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010-265192.

An integrated appraisal of energy recovery options in the United Kingdom using solid recovered fuel derived from municipal solid waste

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garg, A.; Smith, R.; Hill, D.

2009-08-15

This paper reports an integrated appraisal of options for utilising solid recovered fuels (SRF) (derived from municipal solid waste, MSW) in energy intensive industries within the United Kingdom (UK). Four potential co-combustion scenarios have been identified following discussions with industry stakeholders. These scenarios have been evaluated using (a) an existing energy and mass flow framework model, (b) a semi-quantitative risk analysis, (c) an environmental assessment and (d) a financial assessment. A summary of results from these evaluations for the four different scenarios is presented. For the given ranges of assumptions; SRF co-combustion with coal in cement kilns was found tomore » be the optimal scenario followed by co-combustion of SRF in coal-fired power plants. The biogenic fraction in SRF (ca. 70%) reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions significantly ({approx}2500 g CO{sub 2} eqvt./kg DS SRF in co-fired cement kilns and {approx}1500 g CO{sub 2} eqvt./kg DS SRF in co-fired power plants). Potential reductions in electricity or heat production occurred through using a lower calorific value (CV) fuel. This could be compensated for by savings in fuel costs (from SRF having a gate fee) and grants aimed at reducing GHG emission to encourage the use of fuels with high biomass fractions. Total revenues generated from coal-fired power plants appear to be the highest ( Pounds 95/t SRF) from the four scenarios. However overall, cement kilns appear to be the best option due to the low technological risks, environmental emissions and fuel cost. Additionally, cement kiln operators have good experience of handling waste derived fuels. The scenarios involving co-combustion of SRF with MSW and biomass were less favourable due to higher environmental risks and technical issues.« less

A systematic conservation planning approach to fire risk management in Natura 2000 sites.

PubMed

Foresta, Massimiliano; Carranza, Maria Laura; Garfì, Vittorio; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Marchetti, Marco; Loy, Anna

2016-10-01

A primary challenge in conservation biology is to preserve the most representative biodiversity while simultaneously optimizing the efforts associated with conservation. In Europe, the implementation of the Natura 2000 network requires protocols to recognize and map threats to biodiversity and to identify specific mitigation actions. We propose a systematic conservation planning approach to optimize management actions against specific threats based on two fundamental parameters: biodiversity values and threat pressure. We used the conservation planning software Marxan to optimize a fire management plan in a Natura 2000 coastal network in southern Italy. We address three primary questions: i) Which areas are at high fire risk? ii) Which areas are the most valuable for threatened biodiversity? iii) Which areas should receive priority risk-mitigation actions for the optimal effect?, iv) which fire-prevention actions are feasible in the management areas?. The biodiversity values for the Natura 2000 spatial units were derived from the distribution maps of 18 habitats and 89 vertebrate species of concern in Europe (Habitat Directive 92/43/EEC). The threat pressure map, defined as fire probability, was obtained from digital layers of fire risk and of fire frequency. Marxan settings were defined as follows: a) planning units of 40 × 40 m, b) conservation features defined as all habitats and vertebrate species of European concern occurring in the study area, c) conservation targets defined according with fire sensitivity and extinction risk of conservation features, and d) costs determined as the complement of fire probabilities. We identified 23 management areas in which to concentrate efforts for the optimal reduction of fire-induced effects. Because traditional fire prevention is not feasible for most of policy habitats included in the management areas, alternative prevention practices were identified that allows the conservation of the vegetation structure. The proposed approach has potential applications for multiple landscapes, threats and spatial scales and could be extended to other valuable natural areas, including protected areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating the association between weather conditions, calendar events and socio-economic patterns with trends in fire incidence: an Australian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, Jonathan; Higgs, Gary; Rohde, David; Chhetri, Prem

2011-06-01

Fires in urban areas can cause significant economic, physical and psychological damage. Despite this, there has been a comparative lack of research into the spatial and temporal analysis of fire incidence in urban contexts. In this paper, we redress this gap through an exploration of the association of fire incidence to weather, calendar events and socio-economic characteristics in South-East Queensland, Australia using innovative technique termed the quad plot. Analysing trends in five fire incident types, including malicious false alarms (hoax calls), residential buildings, secondary (outdoor), vehicle and suspicious fires, results suggest that risk associated with all is greatly increased during school holidays and during long weekends. For all fire types the lowest risk of incidence was found to occur between one and six a.m. It was also found that there was a higher fire incidence in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods and there was some evidence to suggest that there may be a compounding impact of high temperatures in such areas. We suggest that these findings may be used to guide the operations of fire services through spatial and temporal targeting to better utilise finite resources, help mitigate risk and reduce casualties.

A New Process for Organizing Assessments of Social, Economic, and Environmental Outcomes: Case Study of Wildland Fire Management in the USA

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological risk assessments typically are organized using the processes of planning (a discussion among managers, stakeholders, and analysts to clarify ecosystem management goals and assessment scope) and problem formulation (evaluation of existing information to generate hypothe...

A new process for organizing assessments of social, economic and environmental outcomes: case study of wildland fire management in the U.S.A.

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological risk assessments typically are organized using the processes of planning (a discussion among managers, stakeholders and analysis to clarify ecosystem management goals and assessment scope) and problem formulation (evaluation of existing information to generate hypothes...

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

Alcohol skin preparation causes surgical fires

PubMed Central

Rocos, B; Donaldson, LJ

2012-01-01

INTRODUCTION Surgical fires are a rare but serious preventable safety risk in modern hospitals. Data from the US show that up to 650 surgical fires occur each year, with up to 5% causing death or serious harm. This study used the National Reporting and Learning Service (NRLS) database at the National Patient Safety Agency to explore whether spirit-based surgical skin preparation fluid contributes to the cause of surgical fires. METHODS The NRLS database was interrogated for all incidents of surgical fires reported between 1 March 2004 and 1 March 2011. Each report was scrutinised manually to discover the cause of the fire. RESULTS Thirteen surgical fires were reported during the study period. Of these, 11 were found to be directly related to spirit-based surgical skin preparation or preparation soaked swabs and drapes. CONCLUSIONS Despite manufacturer's instructions and warnings, surgical fires continue to occur. Guidance published in the UK and US states that spirit-based skin preparation solutions should continue to be used but sets out some precautions. It may be that fire risk should be included in pre-surgical World Health Organization checklists or in the surgical training curriculum. Surgical staff should be aware of the risk that spirit-based skin preparation fluids pose and should take action to minimise the chance of fire occurring. PMID:22391366

Alcohol skin preparation causes surgical fires.

PubMed

Rocos, B; Donaldson, L J

2012-03-01

Surgical fires are a rare but serious preventable safety risk in modern hospitals. Data from the US show that up to 650 surgical fires occur each year, with up to 5% causing death or serious harm. This study used the National Reporting and Learning Service (NRLS) database at the National Patient Safety Agency to explore whether spirit-based surgical skin preparation fluid contributes to the cause of surgical fires. The NRLS database was interrogated for all incidents of surgical fires reported between 1 March 2004 and 1 March 2011. Each report was scrutinised manually to discover the cause of the fire. Thirteen surgical fires were reported during the study period. Of these, 11 were found to be directly related to spirit-based surgical skin preparation or preparation soaked swabs and drapes. Despite manufacturer's instructions and warnings, surgical fires continue to occur. Guidance published in the UK and US states that spirit-based skin preparation solutions should continue to be used but sets out some precautions. It may be that fire risk should be included in pre-surgical World Health Organization checklists or in the surgical training curriculum. Surgical staff should be aware of the risk that spirit-based skin preparation fluids pose and should take action to minimise the chance of fire occurring.

78 FR 45573 - Compensatory and Alternative Regulatory Measures for Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-29

... Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN-FIRE) AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Notice of... Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN-FIRE), Draft Report for Comment.'' DATES: Comments on this... CONTACT: Felix Gonzalez, Fire Research Branch, Division of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory...

Juvenile Firesetting.

PubMed

Peters, Brittany; Freeman, Bradley

2016-01-01

Juvenile firesetting is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Male gender, substance use, history of maltreatment, interest in fire, and psychiatric illness are commonly reported risk factors. Interventions that have been shown to be effective in juveniles who set fires include cognitive behavior therapy and educational interventions, whereas satiation has not been shown to be an effective intervention. Forensic assessments can assist the legal community in adjudicating youth with effective interventions. Future studies should focus on consistent assessment and outcome measures to create more evidence for directing evaluation and treatment of juvenile firesetters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonfatal residential fire-related injuries treated in emergency departments--United States, 2001.

PubMed

2003-09-26

During 2000, the most recent year for which national mortality data are available, 3,907 persons died in the United States from fire-related injuries; residential fires accounted for 2,955 (76%) of these deaths. The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) reported that approximately 396,500 residential fires occurred in 2001. Injuries from residential fires are preventable by improving awareness of the common causes of fires and by using simple interventions (e.g., properly maintained smoke alarms and fire escape plans). Surveillance of fire-related injuries can aid prevention by increasing the understanding of these injuries and by identifying at-risk populations to target for interventions and education. To characterize nonfatal residential fire-related injuries treated in U.S. hospital emergency departments (EDs) during 2001, CDC analyzed data from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Program (NEISS-AIP). This report summarizes the results of that analysis, which indicate that, in 2001, an estimated 25,717 nonfatal residential fire-related injuries were treated in U.S. hospital EDs. Fire prevention and safety interventions and education should target at-risk populations for fire-related injuries.

The Pictorial Fire Stroop: A Measure of Processing Bias for Fire-Related Stimuli

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallagher-Duffy, Joanne; MacKay, Sherri; Duffy, Jim; Sullivan-Thomas, Meara; Peterson-Badali, Michele

2009-01-01

Fire interest is a risk factor for firesetting. This study tested whether a fire-specific emotional Stroop task can effectively measure an information-processing bias for fire-related stimuli. Clinic-referred and nonreferred adolescents (aged 13-16 years) completed a pictorial "Fire Stroop," as well as a self-report fire interest questionnaire and…

Operating room fire prevention: creating an electrosurgical unit fire safety device.

PubMed

Culp, William C; Kimbrough, Bradly A; Luna, Sarah; Maguddayao, Aris J

2014-08-01

To reduce the incidence of surgical fires. Operating room fires represent a potentially life-threatening hazard and are triggered by the electrosurgical unit (ESU) pencil. Carbon dioxide is a fire suppressant and is a routinely used medical gas. We hypothesize that a shroud of protective carbon dioxide covering the tip of the ESU pencil displaces oxygen, thereby preventing fire ignition. Using 3-dimensional modeling techniques, a polymer sleeve was created and attached to an ESU pencil. This sleeve was connected to a carbon dioxide source and directed the gas through multiple precisely angled ports, generating a cone of fire-suppressive carbon dioxide surrounding the active pencil tip. This device was evaluated in a flammability test chamber containing 21%, 50%, and 100% oxygen with sustained ESU activation. The sleeve was tested with and without carbon dioxide (control) until a fuel was ignited or 30 seconds elapsed. Time to ignition was measured by high-speed videography. Fires were ignited with each control trial (15/15 trials). The control group median ± SD ignition time in 21% oxygen was 3.0 ± 2.4 seconds, in 50% oxygen was 0.1 ± 1.8 seconds, and in 100% oxygen was 0.03 ± 0.1 seconds. No fire was observed when the fire safety device was used in all concentrations of oxygen (0/15 trials; P < 0.0001). The exact 95% confidence interval for absolute risk reduction of fire ignition was 76% to 100%. A sleeve creating a cone of protective carbon dioxide gas enshrouding the sparks from an ESU pencil effectively prevents fire in a high-flammability model. Clinical application of this device may reduce the incidence of operating room fires.

The biodiversity cost of carbon sequestration in tropical savanna.

PubMed

Abreu, Rodolfo C R; Hoffmann, William A; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Pilon, Natashi A; Rossatto, Davi R; Durigan, Giselda

2017-08-01

Tropical savannas have been increasingly viewed as an opportunity for carbon sequestration through fire suppression and afforestation, but insufficient attention has been given to the consequences for biodiversity. To evaluate the biodiversity costs of increasing carbon sequestration, we quantified changes in ecosystem carbon stocks and the associated changes in communities of plants and ants resulting from fire suppression in savannas of the Brazilian Cerrado, a global biodiversity hotspot. Fire suppression resulted in increased carbon stocks of 1.2 Mg ha -1 year -1 since 1986 but was associated with acute species loss. In sites fully encroached by forest, plant species richness declined by 27%, and ant richness declined by 35%. Richness of savanna specialists, the species most at risk of local extinction due to forest encroachment, declined by 67% for plants and 86% for ants. This loss highlights the important role of fire in maintaining biodiversity in tropical savannas, a role that is not reflected in current policies of fire suppression throughout the Brazilian Cerrado. In tropical grasslands and savannas throughout the tropics, carbon mitigation programs that promote forest cover cannot be assumed to provide net benefits for conservation.

First Approximations of Prescribed Fire Risks Relative to Other Management Techniques Used on Private Lands.

PubMed

Twidwell, Dirac; Wonkka, Carissa L; Sindelar, Michael T; Weir, John R

2015-01-01

Fire is widely recognized as a critical ecological and evolutionary driver that needs to be at the forefront of land management actions if conservation targets are to be met. However, the prevailing view is that prescribed fire is riskier than other land management techniques. Perceived risks associated with the application of fire limits its use and reduces agency support for prescribed burning in the private sector. As a result, considerably less cost-share support is given for prescribed fire compared to mechanical techniques. This study tests the general perception that fire is a riskier technique relative to other land management options. Due to the lack of data available to directly test this notion, we use a combination of approaches including 1) a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for techniques employed in land management, 2) a comparison of fatalities resulting from wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3) an exploration of causal factors responsible for wildland fire-related fatalities. This approach establishes a first approximation of the relative risk of fatality to private citizens using prescribed fire compared to other management techniques that are readily used in ecosystem management. Our data do not support using risks of landowner fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as mechanical (machine-related) equipment, over prescribed fire. Vehicles and heavy machinery are consistently leading reasons for fatalities within occupations selected as proxies for management techniques employed by ranchers and agricultural producers, and also constitute a large proportion of fatalities among firefighters. Our study provides the foundation for agencies to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for prescribed burning on private lands.

First Approximations of Prescribed Fire Risks Relative to Other Management Techniques Used on Private Lands

PubMed Central

Twidwell, Dirac; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Sindelar, Michael T.; Weir, John R.

2015-01-01

Fire is widely recognized as a critical ecological and evolutionary driver that needs to be at the forefront of land management actions if conservation targets are to be met. However, the prevailing view is that prescribed fire is riskier than other land management techniques. Perceived risks associated with the application of fire limits its use and reduces agency support for prescribed burning in the private sector. As a result, considerably less cost-share support is given for prescribed fire compared to mechanical techniques. This study tests the general perception that fire is a riskier technique relative to other land management options. Due to the lack of data available to directly test this notion, we use a combination of approaches including 1) a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for techniques employed in land management, 2) a comparison of fatalities resulting from wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3) an exploration of causal factors responsible for wildland fire-related fatalities. This approach establishes a first approximation of the relative risk of fatality to private citizens using prescribed fire compared to other management techniques that are readily used in ecosystem management. Our data do not support using risks of landowner fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as mechanical (machine-related) equipment, over prescribed fire. Vehicles and heavy machinery are consistently leading reasons for fatalities within occupations selected as proxies for management techniques employed by ranchers and agricultural producers, and also constitute a large proportion of fatalities among firefighters. Our study provides the foundation for agencies to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for prescribed burning on private lands. PMID:26465329

Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance

PubMed Central

Ager, Alan A.; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Barros, Ana M. G.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

2017-01-01

We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. PMID:28257416

Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Evers, Cody R; Day, Michelle A; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Barros, Ana M G; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

2017-01-01

We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments.

Predicting watershed sediment yields after wildland fire with the InVEST sediment retention model at large geographic extent in the western USA: accuracy and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankey, J. B.; Kreitler, J.; McVay, J.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Vaillant, N.; Lowe, S. E.

2014-12-01

Wildland fire is a primary threat to watersheds that can impact water supply through increased sedimentation, water quality decline, and change the timing and amount of runoff leading to increased risk from flood and sediment natural hazards. It is of great societal importance in the western USA and throughout the world to improve understanding of how changing fire frequency, extent, and location, in conjunction with fuel treatments will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities. In this work we assess the utility of the InVEST Sediment Retention Model to accurately characterize vulnerability of burned watersheds to erosion and sedimentation. The InVEST tools are GIS-based implementations of common process models, engineered for high-end computing to allow the faster simulation of larger landscapes and incorporation into decision-making. The InVEST Sediment Retention Model is based on common soil erosion models (e.g., RUSLE -Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) and determines which areas of the landscape contribute the greatest sediment loads to a hydrological network and conversely evaluate the ecosystem service of sediment retention on a watershed basis. We evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties for InVEST predictions of increased sedimentation after fire, using measured post-fire sedimentation rates available for many watersheds in different rainfall regimes throughout the western USA from an existing, large USGS database of post-fire sediment yield [synthesized in Moody J, Martin D (2009) Synthesis of sediment yields after wildland fire in different rainfall regimes in the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 96-115]. The ultimate goal of this work is to calibrate and implement the model to accurately predict variability in post-fire sediment yield as a function of future landscape heterogeneity predicted by wildfire simulations, and future landscape fuel treatment scenarios, within watersheds.

Crisis management of fire in the OR.

PubMed

Seifert, Patricia C; Peterson, Erik; Graham, Karen

2015-02-01

Fire in the OR is a life-threatening emergency that demands prompt, coordinated, and effective interventions. Specific applications of fire protocols and guidelines for perioperative nurses and their interprofessional colleagues may take several approaches. The perioperative nurse’s role is one that can frequently prevent or ameliorate the damaging thermal effects of a fire. For example, to some degree, the nurse can control all three components of the fire triangle: the ignition sources used during surgery (eg, fiberoptic lights, ESU devices), the oxidizers (eg, room air, supplemental oxygen administered during procedures under straight local anesthesia), and the fuel sources (eg, alcohol-based prep solutions). Although all members of the surgical team play an important role, the ability of and the opportunity for the nurse to minimize the risks of fire are important patient safety attributes of the nurse. Team training, rehearsing appropriate actions, and reacting effectively are essential to preparing health care providers to respond in emergent situations and be able to deliver optimal care. In most jurisdictions, any fired--regardless of size--must be reported to the local fire department. Personnel, managers, and administrators should be prepared also for the possibility of participating in postcrisis evaluations by the fire marshal, The Joint Commission, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and possibly other fire safety-related organizations. Additionally, supplemental information related to investigating a fire is available through the ECRI Institute.28 The ECRI Institute serves as a third-party investigator and can facilitate root-cause analyses, identify whether the crisis ought to be reported and to whom, and assist in restoring clinical operations.

Reducing Community Vulnerability to Wildland Fires in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.

2010-12-01

In the US fires are not treated like other hazards such as earthquakes but rather as preventable through landscape fuel treatments and aggressive fire suppression. In southern California extreme fire weather has made it impossible to control all fires and thus loss of homes and lives is a constant threat to communities. There is growing evidence that indicate we are not likely to ever eliminate fires on these landscapes. Thus, it is time to reframe the fire problem and think of fires like we do with other natural hazards such as earthquakes. We do not attempt to stop earthquakes, rather the primary emphasis is on altering human infrastructure in ways that minimize community vulnerability. In other words we need to change our approach from risk elimination to risk management. This approach means we accept that we cannot eliminate fires but rather learn to live with fire by communities becoming more fire adapted. We potentially can make great strides in reducing community vulnerability by finding those factors with high impacts and are sensitive to changes in management. Presently, decision makers have relatively little guidance about which of these is likely to have the greatest impact. Future reductions in fire risk to communities requires we address both wildland and urban elements that contribute to destructive losses. Damage risk or D is determined by: D = f (I, S, E, G, H) where I = the probability of a fire starting in the landscape S = the probability of the fire reaching a size sufficient to reach the urban environment E = probability of it encroaching into the urban environment G = probability of fire propagating within the built environment H = probability of a fire, once within the built environment, resulting in the destruction of a building. In southern California, reducing I through more strategic fire prevention has potential for reducing fire risk. There are many ignition sources that could be reduced, such as replacing power line ignitions with underground lines, strategically employing arson patrols during Santa Ana wind events, enforcing regulations on power equipment use in wildland areas, k-rail barriers along roads to reduce fire spread into wildland areas etc. S, or the probability of fire reaching urban environments has historically been the primary focus of state and federal fire management activities. There is a need for greater focus on understanding the most strategic application of wildland fuel treatments. E, the probability of fire encroaching into the urban environment, has largely been addressed in the past by attention to wildland-urban interface (WUI) fuel treatments. The one factor that has perhaps the greatest potential for impacting E are patterns of urban growth, both in strategic placement and spatial patterning within communities, and this is an area where alternative future growth scenarios could have huge impacts on fire outcomes. G, the chance of fire propagating within the urban environment is a function of urban fuels, which include both home construction and landscaping. This area has the potential for effecting large changes in fire losses dependent upon future regulations on plantings in the urban environment.

Applying GIS to develop a model for forest fire risk: A case study in Espírito Santo, Brazil.

PubMed

Eugenio, Fernando Coelho; dos Santos, Alexandre Rosa; Fiedler, Nilton Cesar; Ribeiro, Guido Assunção; da Silva, Aderbal Gomes; dos Santos, Áureo Banhos; Paneto, Greiciane Gaburro; Schettino, Vitor Roberto

2016-05-15

A forest fire risk map is a basic element for planning and protecting forested areas. The main goal of this study was to develop a statistical model for preparing a forest fire risk map using GIS. Such model is based on assigning weights to nine variables divided into two classes: physical factors of the site (terrain slope, land-use/occupation, proximity to roads, terrain orientation, and altitude) and climatic factors (precipitation, temperature, water deficit, and evapotranspiration). In regions where the climate is different from the conditions of this study, the model will require an adjustment of the variables weights according to the local climate. The study area, Espírito Santo State, exhibited approximately 3.81% low risk, 21.18% moderate risk, 30.10% high risk, 41.50% very high risk, and 3.40% extreme risk of forest fire. The areas classified as high risk, very high and extreme, contemplated a total of 78.92% of heat spots. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of prescribed fire in the coastal prairies of Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grace, James B.; Allain, Larry K.; Baldwin, Heather Q.; Billock, Arlene G.; Eddleman, William R.; Given, Aaron M.; Jeske, Clint W.; Moss, Rebecca

2005-01-01

Prescribed fire is widely applied for habitat management in coastal ecosystems. Fire management plans typically list a variety of objectives for prescribed burning, including succession management, promotion of native flora and fauna, providing habitat for species of importance, wildfire risk reduction (fuels management), as well as reduction and/or prevention of invasive species. In most cases, the information needed to determine the degree to which management objectives are met is not available. This study sought to provide an assessment of key objectives of fire management at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Texas Mid-coast National Wildlife Refuge Complex. The main purpose of this work was to provide information and recommendations that will support Region 2 of the USFWS in the conduct of their fire and habitat management activities in the Western Gulf coast region. There were four main components of this project: (1) a historical analysis of the role of fire in this ecosystem, (2) the development of standard methodology for assessing and monitoring fire effects in this system, (3) an evaluation of the effects of prescribed burning on the habitat being managed, and (4) an evaluation of the effects of burning on select fauna of special concern. A team of researchers, including some from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Southeast Missouri State University, and Louisiana State University were involved in the various components of this project. Extensive support by USFWS personnel, both at the Texas Mid-coast National Wildlife Refuge Complex and in the Regional Office (Region 2, USFWS), was a key component in this work. Data from the three years of this study were combined with the results of previous USGS studies performed at the site to strengthen our conclusions.

High resolution fire risk mapping in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

2014-05-01

The high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity makes Italy vulnerable to forest fires both in the summer and in winter. In particular, northern regions are predominantly characterized by a winter fire regime, mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north, while southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. The agricultural and rural areas, in the last century, have been gradually abandoned, especially in areas with complex topography. Many of these areas were subject to reforestation, leading to the spread of pioneer species mainly represented by Mediterranean conifer, which are highly vulnerable to fire. Because of the frequent spread of fire, these areas are limited to the early successional stages, consisting mainly of shrub vegetation; its survival in the competition with the climax species being ensured by the spread of fire itself. Due to the frequency of fire ignition — almost entirely man caused — the time between fires on the same area is at least an order of magnitude less than the time that would allow the establishment of forest climax species far less vulnerable to fire. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions, which is expected to make a significant contribution to the problem in a few years' time. The goal of such detailed planning is to dramatically reduce the costs associated with water bombers fleet management and fire extinguishing actions, leaving more resources to improve safety in areas at risk. With the availability of fire perimeters mapped over a period spanning from 5 to 10 years, depending by the region, a procedure was defined in order to assess areas at risk with high spatial resolution (900 m2) based on objective criteria by observing past fire events. The availability of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behaviour. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November- April and May- October). In addition, the total precipitation obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 460 raingauges and the average air temperature obtained downscaling 30 years ERA-INTERIM data series were considered. About 48000 fire perimeters which burnt about 5500 km2 were considered in the analysis. The analysis has been carried out at 30 m spatial resolution. Some important considerations relating to climate and the territorial features that characterize the fire regime at national level contribute to better understand the forest fire phenomena. These results allow to define new strategies for forest fire prevention and management extensible to other geographical areas.

[Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

PubMed

Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

2015-07-01

The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

Implementation of National Fire Plan treatments near the wildland-urban interface in the western United States.

PubMed

Schoennagel, Tania; Nelson, Cara R; Theobald, David M; Carnwath, Gunnar C; Chapman, Teresa B

2009-06-30

Because of increasing concern about the effects of catastrophic wildland fires throughout the western United States, federal land managers have been engaged in efforts to restore historical fire behavior and mitigate wildfire risk. During the last 5 years (2004-2008), 44,000 fuels treatments were implemented across the western United States under the National Fire Plan (NFP). We assessed the extent to which these treatments were conducted in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where they would have the greatest potential to reduce fire risk in neighboring homes and communities. Although federal policies stipulate that significant resources should be invested in the WUI, we found that only 3% of the area treated was within the WUI, and another 8% was in an additional 2.5-km buffer around the WUI, totaling 11%. Only 17% of this buffered WUI is under federal ownership, which significantly limits the ability of federal agencies to implement fire-risk reduction treatments near communities. Although treatments far from the WUI may have some fire mitigation benefits, our findings suggest that greater priority must be given to locating treatments in and near the WUI, rather than in more remote settings, to satisfy NFP goals of reducing fire risk to communities. However, this may require shifting management and policy emphasis from public to private lands.

Soil responses to the fire and fire surrogate study in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Emily E.Y. Moghaddas; Scott L. Stephens

2007-01-01

The Fire and Fire Surrogate Study utilizes forest thinning and prescribed burning in attempt to create forest stand structures that reduce the risk of catastrophic wildfire. Replicated treatments consisting of mechanical tree harvest (commercial harvest plus mastication of submerchantable material), mechanical harvest followed by prescribed fire, prescribed fire alone...

Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

2008-12-01

Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from wildfires, agricultural and woodfuel burning will be quantified and drivers identified. Future projections of climate and land use change are applied to the model to investigate joint effects on future changes in fire, deforestation and vegetation dynamics in the Amazon basin.

Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

2015-12-01

The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had meaningful result with artificial and natural effect. It is expected to predict future forest fire risk with future climate variables as the climate changes.

Web service tools in the era of forest fire management and elimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poursanidis, Dimitris; Kochilakis, Giorgos; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Varella, Vasiliki; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Eftychidis, Giorgos; Lagouvardos, Kostas

2014-10-01

Wildfires in forests and forested areas in South Europe, North America, Central Asia and Australia are a diachronic threat with crucial ecological, economic and social impacts. Last decade the frequency, the magnitude and the intensity of fires have increased even more because of the climate change. An efficient response to such disasters requires an effective planning, with an early detection system of the ignition area and an accurate prediction of fire propagation to support the rapid response mechanisms. For this reason, information systems able to predict and visualize the behavior of fires, are valuable tools for fire fighting. Such systems, able also to perform simulations that evaluate the fire development scenarios, based on weather conditions, become valuable Decision Support Tools for fire mitigation planning. A Web-based Information System (WIS) developed in the framework of the FLIRE (Floods and fire risk assessment and management) project, a LIFE+ co-funded by the European Commission research, is presented in this study. The FLIRE WIS use forest fuel maps which have been developed by using generalized fuel maps, satellite data and in-situ observations. Furthermore, it leverages data from meteorological stations and weather forecast from numerical models to feed the fire propagation model with the necessary for the simulations inputs and to visualize the model's results for user defined time periods and steps. The user has real-time access to FLIRE WIS via any web browser from any platform (PC, Laptop, Tablet, Smartphone).

LNG risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martino, P.

1980-12-01

A general methodology is presented for conducting an analysis of the various aspects of the hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) which should be considered during the planning stages of a typical LNG ship terminal. The procedure includes the performance of a hazards and system analysis of the proposed site, a probability analysis of accident scenarios and safety impacts, an analysis of the consequences of credible accidents such as tanker accidents, spills and fires, the assessment of risks and the design and evaluation of risk mitigation measures.

Lead exposure and birth outcomes in five communities in Shoshone County, Idaho.

PubMed

Berkowitz, Zahava; Price-Green, Patricia; Bove, Frank J; Kaye, Wendy E

2006-03-01

This study examined birth outcomes in five towns in Shoshone County, Idaho, where residents were exposed to high levels of lead in air emissions during a 6-month period after a fire had damaged the main baghouse (pollution-control device) of a local lead smelter plant in September 1973. We studied birth certificate data of 169,878 live singleton infants born to mothers who resided in Idaho at the time of delivery. The outcomes evaluated were preterm infants, small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants, low birthweight among term infants (TLBW), and mean birthweight among term infants (TMBW). The study compared births in the five towns in Shoshone County (exposed group) to births in the rest of Idaho during three exposure periods: "pre-fire," January 1, 1970-August 31, 1973; "high exposure," September 1, 1973-December 31, 1974; and "post-fire," January 1, 1975-December 31, 1981. During the high-exposure period, the exposed group had an increased prevalence of TLBW (OR=2.4; 90% CI: 1.6-3.6) and SGA (OR=1.9; 90% CI: 1.3-2.8) compared with the rest of Idaho. During the pre- and post-fire periods, the ORs for TLBW were 0.8 and 1.3, respectively, and for SGA, 1.0, and 1.3, respectively. During the high-exposure period, TMBW for the exposed group was 71 g lower than in the comparison group. The TMBW in the exposed group was 8 g lower in the pre-fire period and 26 g lower in the post-fire period than in the comparison group. The study found no increased risk for preterm birth in the exposed group. Maternal exposures to airborne lead emissions appeared to be associated with increased risks for SGA, TLBW, and reduced TMBW.

Preventing deaths and injuries from house fires: a cost–benefit analysis of a community-based smoke alarm installation programme

PubMed Central

Yellman, Merissa A; Peterson, Cora; McCoy, Mary A; Stephens-Stidham, Shelli; Caton, Emily; Barnard, Jeffrey J; Padgett, Ted O; Florence, Curtis; Istre, Gregory R

2017-01-01

Background Operation Installation (OI), a community-based smoke alarm installation programme in Dallas, Texas, targets houses in high-risk urban census tracts. Residents of houses that received OI installation (or programme houses) had 68% fewer medically treated house fire injuries (non-fatal and fatal) compared with residents of non-programme houses over an average of 5.2 years of follow-up during an effectiveness evaluation conducted from 2001 to 2011. Objective To estimate the cost–benefit of OI. Methods A mathematical model incorporated programme cost and effectiveness data as directly observed in OI. The estimated cost per smoke alarm installed was based on a retrospective analysis of OI expenditures from administrative records, 2006–2011. Injury incidence assumptions for a population that had the OI programme compared with the same population without the OI programme was based on the previous OI effectiveness study, 2001–2011. Unit costs for medical care and lost productivity associated with fire injuries were from a national public database. Results From a combined payers’ perspective limited to direct programme and medical costs, the estimated incremental cost per fire injury averted through the OI installation programme was $128,800 (2013 US$). When a conservative estimate of lost productivity among victims was included, the incremental cost per fire injury averted was negative, suggesting long-term cost savings from the programme. The OI programme from 2001 to 2011 resulted in an estimated net savings of $3.8 million, or a $3.21 return on investment for every dollar spent on the programme using a societal cost perspective. Conclusions Community smoke alarm installation programmes could be cost-beneficial in high-fire-risk neighbourhoods. PMID:28183740

Managing wildland fire risk in Florida

Treesearch

J. Brenner; D. Carlton; S. McLellan; A. Dozier; T. Spencer; D. Buckley; A. Ralowicz

2010-01-01

Florida’s Wildland Fire Risk Assessment (FRA), which was completed in 2002, is a statewide effort to develop a comprehensive suite of standardized spatial data layers developed to support implementation of a statewide fuels management strategy. By maintaining focus on fire and fuel dynamics for use with scientifically credible local to statewide applications, the FRA...

Not Getting Burned: The Importance of Fire

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We extend existing stand-level models of forest landowner behavior in the presence of fire risk to include the level and timing of fuel management activities. These activities reduce losses if a stand ignites. Based on simulations, we find the standard result that fire risk reduces the optimal rotation age does not hold when landowners use fuel management. Instead,...

Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

Treesearch

Brian R Sturtevant; Brian R Miranda; Douglas J Shinneman; Eric J Gustafson; Peter T. Wolter

2012-01-01

Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to...

Wildfire communication and climate risk mitigation

Treesearch

Robyn S. Wilson; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric Toman

2017-01-01

Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire...

Effectiveness of mechanical thinning and prescribed burning on fire behavior in Pinus nigra forests in NE Spain.

PubMed

Piqué, Míriam; Domènech, Rut

2018-03-15

Fuel treatments can mitigate present and future impacts of climate change by reducing fire intensity and severity. In recent years, Pinus nigra forests in the Mediterranean basin have been dramatically affected by the new risk of highly intense and extreme fires and its distribution area has been reduced. New tools are necessary for assessing the management of these forests so they can adapt to the challenges to come. Our main goal was to evaluate the effects of different fuel treatments on Mediterranean Pinus nigra forests. We assessed the forest response, in terms of forest structure and fire behavior, to different intensities of low thinning treatments followed by different slash prescriptions (resulting in: light thinning and lop and scatter; light thinning and burn; heavy thinning and lop and scatter; heavy thinning and burn; and, untreated control). Treatments that used fire to decrease the resulting slash were the most effective for reducing active crown fires decreasing the rate of spread and flame length more than 89%. Low thinning had an effect on torching potential, but there was no difference between intensities of thinning. Only an outcoming crown fire could spread actively if it was sustained by a high-enough constant wind speed and enough surface fuel load. Overall, treatments reduce fire intensity and treated areas have a more homogenous fire behavior response than untreated areas. This provides opportunities to extinguish the fire and reduce the probability of trees dying from the fire. It would be helpful to include ecological principles and fire behavior criteria in silvicultural treatment guidelines in order to perform more efficient management techniques in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression.

PubMed

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-04-08

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression

PubMed Central

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-01-01

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale. PMID:28397745

Changes in future fire regimes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut

2013-04-01

Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.

Utilizing Remote Sensing Information to Improve Post-fire Rainfall-runoff Predictions after the 2010 Bull Fire in the Sequoia National Forest, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, A. M.; Hale, B.; Hogue, T. S.

2012-12-01

Post-fire management decisions are guided by rainfall-runoff predictions, which ultimately influence downstream treatment and mitigation costs. The current study investigates evolving rainfall-runoff partitioning at the watershed scale over a two-year period after the 2010 Bull Fire which occurred in the southern Sequoia National Forest in California. Stage height was measured at five-minute intervals using pressure transducers, tipping buckets were installed for rainfall duration and intensity, and channel cross-sections were measured approximately every two months to detail sediment deposition or scour. We also utilize remotely sensed vegetation data to evaluate vegetation recovery in the studied watersheds and the corresponding relationship to storm runoff. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a measure of vegetation greenness, is evaluated for its potential use as a key recovery indicator. Preliminary results focus on alterations in annual and seasonal precipitation and discharge relationships using in-situ data and Landsat NDVI values for the period of study. NDVI values are consistent with a comprehensive burn, with an acute decrease observed in the initial post-fire period. However, vegetation recovery is highly variable in the studied systems and influenced by shorter-term biomass pulses (grasses) while longer-term recovery of other species (chaparral and pine) is ongoing. Runoff ratios are elevated during early storms and show some recovery in the later part of the study period. The ability to accurately and confidently predict post-fire runoff and longer-term recovery is critical for monitoring values-at-risk, reducing mitigation costs, and improving warnings to downstream public communities.

THE EFFECTS OF COMPUTER-BASED FIRE SAFETY TRAINING ON THE KNOWLEDGE, ATTITUDES, AND PRACTICES OF CAREGIVERS

PubMed Central

Harrington, Susan S.; Walker, Bonnie L.

2010-01-01

Background Older adults in small residential board and care facilities are at a particularly high risk of fire death and injury because of their characteristics and environment. Methods The authors investigated computer-based instruction as a way to teach fire emergency planning to owners, operators, and staff of small residential board and care facilities. Participants (N = 59) were randomly assigned to a treatment or control group. Results Study participants who completed the training significantly improved their scores from pre- to posttest when compared to a control group. Participants indicated on the course evaluation that the computers were easy to use for training (97%) and that they would like to use computers for future training courses (97%). Conclusions This study demonstrates the potential for using interactive computer-based training as a viable alternative to instructor-led training to meet the fire safety training needs of owners, operators, and staff of small board and care facilities for the elderly. PMID:19263929

Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott; Paul Langowski; Elise Bowne; David E. Calkin

2015-01-01

Applying wildfire risk assessment models can inform investments in loss mitigation and landscape restoration, and can be used to monitor spatiotemporal trends in risk. Assessing wildfire risk entails the integration of fire modeling outputs, maps of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs), characterization of fire effects, and articulation of relative importance...

Can acceptable risk be defined in wildland firefighting?

Treesearch

David Clancy

2011-01-01

Risk is an ever-present challenge for fire agencies, fire managers, and firefighters, who must ensure that risks are managed at a level that is as low as reasonably practicable. This challenge provides a significant dilemma as there is no one prescriptive method for—or consensus on—defining "acceptable risk" in the field of firefighting....

Evaluated community fire safety interventions in the United States: a review of current literature.

PubMed

Ta, Van M; Frattaroli, Shannon; Bergen, Gwendolyn; Gielen, Andrea Carlson

2006-06-01

The purpose of the study was to assess the state of fire prevention research, provide an updated synthesis of evaluated fire prevention programs, and discuss the role of fire fighters and data systems in prevention efforts. The review included all evaluations of U.S. based fire prevention interventions published between January 1998 and September 2004 and any earlier articles about U.S. fire prevention interventions not included in two prior review articles. We retrieved information from each identified study including evaluation findings, involvement of fire service personnel and use of existing data systems. We identified twelve articles: seven reported on smoke alarm interventions, three on multi-faceted programs, and two other programs. Five programs involved fire service personnel in the design, implementation, and/or evaluation, and three used existing data systems. Studies reviewed suggest that canvassing and smoke alarm installations are the most effective means of distributing alarms and increasing the functional status of distributed alarms. The functionality of smoke alarms, an issue noted in earlier reviews, remains a problem. Programs involving partnerships with fire departments have indicated success in preventing fires and deaths, improving smoke alarm ownership and functional status, and improving children's fire safety knowledge. Using existing data systems to target and to evaluate interventions was effective. In the years since prior reviews, some improvements in the rigor of evaluation designs have been made, but there is still a need for high quality evaluations that will inform fire injury prevention efforts.

Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

Treesearch

Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

2010-01-01

Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

Spatial distribution of human-caused forest fires in Galicia (NW Spain)

Treesearch

M. L. Chas-Amil; J. Touza; P. Prestemon

2010-01-01

It is crucial for fire prevention policies to assess the spatial patterns of human-started fires and their relationship with geographical and socioeconomic aspects. This study uses fire reports for the period 1988-2006 in Galicia, Spain, to analyze the spatial distribution of human-induced fire risk attending to causes and underlying motivations associated with fire...

A study on fire spreading model for the safety distance between the neighborhood occupancies and historical buildings in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. H.; Chien, S. W.; Ho, M. C.

2015-08-01

Cultural heritages and historical buildings are vulnerable against severe threats from fire. Since the 1970s, ten fire-spread events involving historic buildings have occurred in Taiwan, affecting a total of 132 nearby buildings. Developed under the influence of traditional Taiwanese culture, historic buildings in Taiwan are often built using non-fire resistant brick-wood structure and located in proximity to residential occupancies. Fire outbreak in these types of neighborhood will lead to severe damage of antiquities, leaving only unrecoverable historical imagery. This study is aimed to investigate the minimal safety distance required between a historical building and its surroundings in order to reduce the risk of external fire. This study is based on literature analysis and the fire spread model using a Fire Dynamics Simulator. The selected target is Jingmei Temple in Taipei City. This study explored local geography to identify patterns behind historical buildings distribution. In the past, risk reduction engineering for cultural heritages and historical buildings focused mainly on fire equipment and the available personnel with emergency response ability, and little attention was given to external fire risks and the affected damage. Through discussions on the required safety distance, this research provides guidelines for the following items: management of neighborhoods with historical buildings and consultation between the protection of cultural heritages and disaster prevention, reducing the frequency and extent of fire damages, and preserving cultural resource.

National Fire Plan Research and Development 2001 Business Summary

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service

2002-01-01

Wildland fire remains a serious concern to the people of our Nation. This concern has been turned into action in the form of the National Fire Plan (NFP), an accelerated interagency effort, begun after the disastrous 2000 fire season, to step up, coordinate, and concentrate activity on reducing fire risks.

Fire Safety for Retired Adults: Participant's Coursebook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker (Bonnie) and Associates, Inc., Crofton, MD.

The risk of dying from fire increases substantially among older adults. This document contains a collection of fire safety information for elderly people. Information includes procedures to follow in case of fire and early warning technologies such as smoke alarms. The booklet describes potential sources of fires (smoking, home heating, kitchens,…

Exposure to an Indoor Cooking Fire and Risk of Trachoma in Children of Kongwa, Tanzania

PubMed Central

Zambrano, Andrea I.; Muñoz, Beatriz E.; Mkocha, Harran; West, Sheila K.

2015-01-01

Background Elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020 can only be achieved if affected areas have effective control programs in place before the target date. Identifying risk factors for active disease that are amenable to intervention is important to successfully design such programs. Previous studies have linked sleeping by a cooking fire to trachoma in children, but not fully explored the mechanism and risks. We propose to determine the risk for active trachoma in children with exposure to cooking fires by severity of trachoma, adjusting for other known risk factors. Methods Complete census of 52 communities in Kongwa, Tanzania, was conducted to collect basic household characteristics and demographic information on each family member. Information on exposure to indoor cooking fires while the mother was cooking and while sleeping for each child was collected. 6656 randomly selected children ages 1-9yrs were invited to a survey where both eyelids were graded for follicular (TF) and intense trachoma (TI) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Ocular swab were taken to assess the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis. Findings 5240 (79%) of the invited children participated in the study. Overall prevalence for trachoma was 6·1%. Odds for trachoma and increased severity were higher in children sleeping without ventilation and a cooking fire in their room (TF OR = 1·81, 1·00–3·27 and TI OR 4·06, 1·96–8·42). Children with TF or TI who were exposed were more likely to have infection than children with TF or TI who were not exposed. There was no increased risk with exposure to a cooking fire while the mother was cooking. Conclusions In addition to known risk factors for trachoma, sleeping by an indoor cooking fire in a room without ventilation was associated with active trachoma and appears to substantially increase the risk of intense inflammation. PMID:26046359

Exposure to an Indoor Cooking Fire and Risk of Trachoma in Children of Kongwa, Tanzania.

PubMed

Zambrano, Andrea I; Muñoz, Beatriz E; Mkocha, Harran; West, Sheila K

2015-01-01

Elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020 can only be achieved if affected areas have effective control programs in place before the target date. Identifying risk factors for active disease that are amenable to intervention is important to successfully design such programs. Previous studies have linked sleeping by a cooking fire to trachoma in children, but not fully explored the mechanism and risks. We propose to determine the risk for active trachoma in children with exposure to cooking fires by severity of trachoma, adjusting for other known risk factors. Complete census of 52 communities in Kongwa, Tanzania, was conducted to collect basic household characteristics and demographic information on each family member. Information on exposure to indoor cooking fires while the mother was cooking and while sleeping for each child was collected. 6656 randomly selected children ages 1-9 yrs were invited to a survey where both eyelids were graded for follicular (TF) and intense trachoma (TI) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Ocular swab were taken to assess the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis. 5240 (79%) of the invited children participated in the study. Overall prevalence for trachoma was 6·1%. Odds for trachoma and increased severity were higher in children sleeping without ventilation and a cooking fire in their room (TF OR = 1·81, 1·00-3·27 and TI OR 4·06, 1·96-8·42). Children with TF or TI who were exposed were more likely to have infection than children with TF or TI who were not exposed. There was no increased risk with exposure to a cooking fire while the mother was cooking. In addition to known risk factors for trachoma, sleeping by an indoor cooking fire in a room without ventilation was associated with active trachoma and appears to substantially increase the risk of intense inflammation.

Opportunities for making wood products from small diameter trees in Colorado

Treesearch

Dennis L. Lynch; Kurt H. Mackes

2002-01-01

Colorado's forests are at risk to forest health problems and catastrophic fire. Forest areas at high risk to catastrophic fire, commonly referred to as Red Zones, contain 2.4 million acres in the Colorado Front Range and 6.3 million acres Statewide. The increasing frequency, size, and intensity of recent forest fires have prompted large appropriations of Federal...

Uncontrolled combustion of shredded tires in a landfill -Part 2: Population exposure, public health response, and an air quality index for urban fires

PubMed Central

Singh, Ashish; Spak, Scott N.; Stone, Elizabeth A.; Downard, Jared; Bullard, Robert; Pooley, Mark; Kostle, Pamela A.; Mainprize, Matthew W.; Wichman, Michael D.; Peters, Thomas; Beardsley, Douglas; Stanier, Charles O.

2015-01-01

The Iowa City Landfill in eastern Iowa, United States, experienced a fire lasting 18 days in 2012, in which a drainage layer of over 1 million shredded tires burned, generating smoke that impacted the surrounding metropolitan area of 130,000 people. This emergency required air monitoring, risk assessment, dispersion modeling, and public notification. This paper quantifies the impact of the fire on local air quality and proposes a monitoring approach and an Air Quality Index (AQI) for use in future tire fires and other urban fires. Individual fire pollutants are ranked for acute and cancer relative risks using hazard ratios, with the highest acute hazard ratios attributed to SO2, particulate matter, and aldehydes. Using a dispersion model in conjunction with the new AQI, we estimate that smoke concentrations reached unhealthy outdoor levels for sensitive groups out to distances of 3.1 km and 18 km at 24-h and 1-h average times, respectively. Modeled and measured concentrations of PM2.5 from smoke and other compounds such as VOCs and benzo[a]pyrene are presented at a range of distances and averaging times, and the corresponding cancer risks are discussed. Through reflection on the air quality response to the event, consideration of cancer and acute risks, and comparison to other tire fires, we recommend that all landfills with shredded tire liners plan for hazmat fire emergencies. A companion paper presents emission factors and detailed smoke characterization. PMID:25624787

Uncontrolled combustion of shredded tires in a landfill -Part 2: Population exposure, public health response, and an air quality index for urban fires.

PubMed

Singh, Ashish; Spak, Scott N; Stone, Elizabeth A; Downard, Jared; Bullard, Robert; Pooley, Mark; Kostle, Pamela A; Mainprize, Matthew W; Wichman, Michael D; Peters, Thomas; Beardsley, Douglas; Stanier, Charles O

2015-03-01

The Iowa City Landfill in eastern Iowa, United States, experienced a fire lasting 18 days in 2012, in which a drainage layer of over 1 million shredded tires burned, generating smoke that impacted the surrounding metropolitan area of 130,000 people. This emergency required air monitoring, risk assessment, dispersion modeling, and public notification. This paper quantifies the impact of the fire on local air quality and proposes a monitoring approach and an Air Quality Index (AQI) for use in future tire fires and other urban fires. Individual fire pollutants are ranked for acute and cancer relative risks using hazard ratios, with the highest acute hazard ratios attributed to SO 2 , particulate matter, and aldehydes. Using a dispersion model in conjunction with the new AQI, we estimate that smoke concentrations reached unhealthy outdoor levels for sensitive groups out to distances of 3.1 km and 18 km at 24-h and 1-h average times, respectively. Modeled and measured concentrations of PM 2.5 from smoke and other compounds such as VOCs and benzo[a]pyrene are presented at a range of distances and averaging times, and the corresponding cancer risks are discussed. Through reflection on the air quality response to the event, consideration of cancer and acute risks, and comparison to other tire fires, we recommend that all landfills with shredded tire liners plan for hazmat fire emergencies. A companion paper presents emission factors and detailed smoke characterization.

Forests at risk: integrating risk science into fuel management strategies.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2008-01-01

The threat from wildland fire continues to grow across many regions of the Western United States. Drought, urbanization, and a buildup of fuels over the last century have contributed to increasing wildfire risk to property and highly valued natural resources. Fuel treatments, including thinning overly dense forests to reduce fuel and lower fire risk, have become a...

Understanding the transmission of wildfire risk on a fire prone landscape - A Case study from Central Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, Alan; Barros, Ana; Day, Michelle; Preisler, Haiganoush; Evers, Cody

2015-04-01

We develop the idea of risk transmission from large wildfires and apply network analyses to understand its importance within the 3.2 million ha Fire-People-Forest study area in central Oregon, US. Historic wildfires within the study and elsewhere in the western US frequently burn over long distances (e.g., 20-50 km) through highly fragmented landscapes with respect to ownership, fuels, management intensity, population density, and ecological conditions. The collective arrangement of fuel loadings in concert with weather and suppression efforts ultimately determines containment and the resulting fire perimeter. While spatial interactions among land parcels in terms of fire spread and intensity have been frequently noted by fire managers, quantifying risk and exposure transmission is not well understood. In this paper we used simulation modeling to quantify wildfire transmission and built a transmission network among and within land owners and communities within the study area. The results suggested that 84% of the predicted area burned within the 25 communities in the study area was from simulated fires that ignited on federal lands. The wildland urban interface surrounding the communities was predicted to burn at a rate of 2 % per year, with 57% of the area burned from fires ignited on federal lands. The node degree for communities indicated that simulated fires originated on about 6 different landowners. Network analyses in general revealed independent variation in transmitted fire among landowners in terms of both node degree (diversity of landowners exchanging fire) and transmitted fire, indicating that both the spatial grain of land ownership and wildfire topology contribute to transmission among land parcels. We discuss how network analyses of wildfire transmission can inform fire management goals for creating fire adapted communities, conserving biodiversity, and resolving competing demands for fire-prone ecosystem services. We also discuss how biophysical fire networks can potentially be coupled with social fire networks to improve wildfire mitigation planning.

Simulated Rainfall experiments on burned areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rulli, Maria Cristina

2010-05-01

Simulated Rainfall experiments were carried out in a Mediterranean area located in Italy, immediately after a forest fire occurrence, to evaluate the effects of forest fire on soil hydraulic properties, runoff and erosion. The selected study area was frequently affected by fire in the last years. Two adjacent 30 mq plots were set up with common physiographic features, and the same fire history, except for the last fire, which burned only one of them. Since both plots were previously subject to the passage of fire 6 years before the last one, one compares the hydrologic response and erosion of an area recently burned (B00) with that of an area burnt 6 years before (B06). Several rainfall simulations were carried out considering different pre-event soil moisture conditions where each rainfall simulation consisted of a single 60 minute application of rainfall with constant intensity of about 76 mm/h. The results show runoff ratio, evaluated for different pre-event soil moisture conditions, ranging from 0 to 2% for B06 plot, and from 21 to 41% for B00. Runoff ratio for the recently burned plot was 60 times higher than for the plot burned six years before, under wet conditions, and 20 times higher, under very wet conditions. A large increase in sediment production also was measured in B00 plot, as compared with that in B06 plot. Suspended sediment yield from B00 plot was more than two orders of magnitude higher than that from B06 plot in all the simulated events. The high runoff and soil losses measured immediately after burning indicate that effective post-fire rehabilitation programs must be carried out to reduce flood risk and soil erosion in recently burned areas. However, the results for the plot burned six year prior show that recovery of the hydrological properties of the soil occurs after the transient post fire modification.

Assessment of dermal hazard from acid burns with fire retardant garments in a full-size simulation of an engulfment flash fire.

PubMed

Mackay, Christopher E; Vivanco, Stephanie N; Yeboah, George; Vercellone, Jeff

2016-09-01

There have been concerns that fire-derived acid gases could aggravate thermal burns for individuals wearing synthetic flame retardant garments. A comparative risk assessment was performed on three commercial flame retardant materials with regard to relative hazards associated with acidic combustion gases to skin during a full engulfment flash fire event. The tests were performed in accordance with ASTM F1930 and ISO 13506: Standard Test Method for Evaluation of Flame Resistant Clothing for Protection against Fire Simulations Using an Instrumented Manikin. Three fire retardant textiles were tested: an FR treated cotton/nylon blend, a low Protex(®) modacrylic blend, and a medium Protex(®) modacrylic blend. The materials, in the form of whole body coveralls, were subjected to propane-fired flash conditions of 84kW/m(2) in a full sized simulator for a duration of either 3 or 4s. Ion traps consisting of wetted sodium carbonate-impregnated cellulose in Teflon holders were placed on the chest and back both above and under the standard undergarments. The ion traps remained in position from the time of ignition until 5min post ignition. Results indicated that acid deposition did increase with modacrylic content from 0.9μmol/cm(2) for the cotton/nylon, to 12μmol/cm(2) for the medium modacrylic blend. The source of the acidity was dominated by hydrogen chloride. Discoloration was inversely proportional to the amount of acid collected on the traps. A risk assessment was performed on the potential adverse impact of acid gases on both the skin and open wounds. The results indicated that the deposition and dissolution of the acid gases in surficial fluid media (perspiration and blood plasma) resulted in an increase in acidity, but not sufficient to induce irritation/skin corrosion or to cause necrosis in open third degree burns. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Factors involved in dental surgery fires: a review of the literature.

PubMed

VanCleave, Andrea M; Jones, James E; McGlothlin, James D; Saxen, Mark A; Sanders, Brian J; Walker, LaQuia A

2014-01-01

Surgical fires are well-characterized, readily preventable, potentially devastating operating room catastrophes that continue to occur from 20 to 100 times per year or, by one estimate, up to 600 times per year in US operating rooms, sometimes with fatal results. The most significant risk factors for surgical fires involve (a) the use of an ignition source, such as laser or electrocautery equipment, in or around an oxygen-enriched environment in the head, neck, and upper torso area and (b) the concurrent delivery of supplemental oxygen, especially via nasal cannula. Nonetheless, while these 2 conditions occur very commonly in dental surgery, especially in pediatric dental surgery where sedation and anesthesia are regularly indicated, there is a general absence of documented dental surgical fires in the literature. Barring the possibility of underreporting for fear of litigation, this may suggest that there is another mechanism or mechanisms present in dental or pediatric dental surgery that mitigates this worst-case risk of surgical fires. Some possible explanations for this include: greater fire safety awareness by dental practitioners, incidental ventilation of oxygen-enriched environments in patient oral cavities due to breathing, or suction used by dental practitioners during procedures. This review of the literature provides a background to suggest that the practice of using intraoral suction in conjunction with the use of supplemental oxygen during dental procedures may alter the conditions needed for the initiation of intraoral fires. To date, there appear to be no published studies describing the ability of intraoral suctioning devices to alter the ambient oxygen concentration in an intraoral environment. In vivo models that would allow examination of intraoral suction on the ambient oxygen concentration in a simulated intraoral environment may then provide a valuable foundation for evaluating the safety of current clinical dental surgical practices, particularly in regard to the treatment of children.

Restoring surface fire stabilizes forest carbon under extreme fire weather in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Daniel J. Krofcheck; Matthew D. Hurteau; Robert M. Scheller; E. Louise Loudermilk

2017-01-01

Climate change in the western United States has increased the frequency of extreme fire weather events and is projected to increase the area burned by wildfire in the coming decades. This changing fire regime, coupled with increased high-severity fire risk from a legacy of fire exclusion, could destabilize forest carbon (C), decrease net ecosystem exchange (...

Continental-scale simulation of burn probabilities, flame lengths, and fire size distribution for the United States

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac Grenfell; Karin L. Riley

2010-01-01

Components of a quantitative risk assessment were produced by simulation of burn probabilities and fire behavior variation for 134 fire planning units (FPUs) across the continental U.S. The system uses fire growth simulation of ignitions modeled from relationships between large fire occurrence and the fire danger index Energy Release Component (ERC). Simulations of 10,...

Humans, Fires, and Forests - Social science applied to fire management

Treesearch

Hanna J. Cortner; Donald R. Field; Pam Jakes; James D. Buthman

2003-01-01

The 2000 and 2002 fire seasons resulted in increased political scrutiny of the nation's wildland fire threats, and given the fact that millions of acres of lands are still at high risk for future catastrophic fire events, the issues highlighted by the recent fire seasons are not likely to go away any time soon. Recognizing the magnitude of the problem, the...

Responsible for Fire Safety. Seventh Grade. Fire Safety for Texans: Fire and Burn Prevention Curriculum Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Texas State Commission on Fire Protection, Austin.

This booklet comprises the seventh grade component of a series of curriculum guides on fire and burn prevention. Designed to meet the age-specific needs of seventh grade students, its objectives include: (1) practicing responsible decision-making regarding fire and burn hazards, including peer pressure related to fire risks; and (2) practicing…

Evaluation of Switchgrass as a co-firing fuel in the Southeast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Southern Research Institute

2001-11-01

The ''Evaluation of Switchgrass as a Co-Firing Fuel in the Southeast'' is a comprehensive project incorporating the highest yielding variety of switchgrass, unique harvesting methods, detailed parametric evaluations in a state-of-the-art combustion research facility, and a full-scale demonstration in a tangentially-fired Alabama Power Company power boiler. These features were incorporated into the project to reduce the technical and economic risk of yielding a practical renewable energy option for the southeastern US. There are particular incentives for proving the feasibility of switchgrass as a biomass fuel in the southeastern US. Even though agriculture is a predominant industry much of the landmore » in this region is under-utilized, marginal farmland. As a result, some of the poorest counties in the nation are located in this region. The yields of switchgrass are substantially higher in the southeastern US than in other regions. Yield, or productivity, is a critical factor in determining the feasibility of biomass fuel. Yields in small research plots in the region averaged 25.8 Mg/ha (11.5 tons/acre) over the period 1990-1994. Achievable commercial yield in the southeastern US will likely be about 15.7 Mg/ha (7 tons/acre) with currently available varieties. Use of switchgrass as a supplemental fuel for coal-fired utility boilers could create an enormous market for growers. The Southern Company has 23,000 MW of coal-fired capacity in the southeast. If only 1% of this capacity was provided by switchgrass instead of coal, 74,500 ha (184,000 acres) of production would be needed. This would generate 1,288,000 tons of switchgrass which, if valued at $35/ton, would amount to over $45 million.« less

Pre-fire and post-fire surface fuel and cover measurements collected in the southeastern United States for model evaluation and development - RxCADRE 2008, 2011 and 2012

Treesearch

Roger D. Ottmar; Andrew T. Hudak; Susan J. Prichard; Clinton S. Wright; Joseph C. Restaino; Maureen C. Kennedy; Robert E. Vihnanek

2016-01-01

A lack of independent, quality-assured data prevents scientists from effectively evaluating predictions and uncertainties in fire models used by land managers. This paper presents a summary of pre-fire and post-fire fuel, fuel moisture and surface cover fraction data that can be used for fire model evaluation and development. The data were collected in the...

Flammability of topical preparations and surgical dressings in cutaneous and laser surgery: a controlled simulation study.

PubMed

Arefiev, Katharine; Warycha, Melanie; Whiting, Dennis; Alam, Murad

2012-10-01

Surgical fires are a rare, but serious complication of dermatologic procedures involving electrosurgical and laser devices. Given the lack of data regarding basic fire safety principles, many dermatologists remain unaware of this potential risk. We evaluated the flammability of topical preparations and surgical drapes commonly encountered in the immediate operative field during cutaneous and laser surgery. Surgical dressings, drapes, and pork belly skin were examined for fire risk upon exposure to isopropyl alcohol, chlorhexidine gluconate, and aluminum chloride under dry, saturated, and damp conditions. Both electrosurgery and a carbon-dioxide laser were used as ignition sources. At least some char was observed in 86 of 126 simulated conditions (68%). Flames occurred in 2 test conditions: dry underpad drapes and cotton balls exposed to the carbon-dioxide laser. In general, drapes and dressings dampened or saturated with isopropyl alcohol failed to ignite with electrofulguration or electrodessication, although sparks and moderate char developed on pork belly skin and the underpad drape. Materials dampened or saturated with chlorhexidine gluconate, which contains isopropyl alcohol, generated less smoke and char compared with materials exposed to aluminum chloride, which does not contain alcohol. Future studies may assess the flammability of materials in the setting of oxygen supplementation. In common cutaneous surgical environments, electrosurgery or ablative laser may lead to char and rarely to fire. Char may be seen in up to two thirds of simulated conditions, and in a minute proportion of conditions, fire is observed. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

A statistical procedure for fire risk mapping in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

2015-04-01

The high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity makes Italy vulnerable to forest fires both in the summer and in winter. In particular, northern regions are predominantly characterized by a winter fire regime, mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north, while southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions, which is expected to make a significant contribution to the problem in a few years' time. Given the availability of fire perimeters mapped over a period spanning from 5 to 10 years, depending by the region, a statistical procedure was defined in order to assess areas at risk based on objective criteria by observing past fire events. The availability of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behavior. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November-April and May- October). In addition, the total precipitation obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 460 raingauges and the average air temperature obtained downscaling 30 years ERA-INTERIM data series were considered. The analysis consists on the subdivision of the territory in classes based on the named information layers (elevation, slope, rainfall height, temperature, etc.) with a recursive algorithm that ensures the equal numerosity of each class. The number of fires occurred in each class is then assessed basing on time series in the last decade, in order to have an estimation of the fire hazard with a contant statistical confidence. The analysis was carried out at a spatial resolution of 500 m on the whole Italian territory by using a dataset of fires occurrences that spans from 2007 to 2013.

Fire Risk and Residential Development: A GIS Analysis

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Rechel; James B. Davis; Ted K. Bradshaw

1992-01-01

Population growth is rapid in rural areas in California. This growth into the wildland-urban interface makes fire protection and suppression more difficult. Fire managers have opportunities to reduce fire danger by improving housing development patterns; however, the overall density and placement of houses is usually set by criteria other than fire danger. By...

Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

Treesearch

M. A. Cochrane; C. J. Moran; M. C. Wimberly; A. D. Baer; M. A. Finney; K. L. Beckendorf; J. Eidenshink; Z. Zhu

2012-01-01

Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of...

Assessing the home fire safety of urban older adults: a case study.

PubMed

Twyman, Stephanie; Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee

2014-01-01

Older adults are at a higher risk for fatal house fire injury due to decreased mobility, chronic illness, and lack of smoke alarms. The purpose of this illustrative case study is to describe the home fire safety (HFS) status of an urban older adult who participated in a large study funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). During a home visit with the participant, HFS data were collected from documents, observation, physical artifacts, reflective logs, and interviews. Numerous HFS hazards were identified including non-working smoke alarms, inadequate number and inappropriate placement of smoke alarms, lack of carbon monoxide (CO) alarms, inability to identify a home fire escape plan, hot water heater temperature set too high, and cooking hazards. Identification of HFS risk factors will assist in the development of educational materials that can be tailored to the older adult population to decrease their risk of fire-related injuries and death.

Numerical modeling of laboratory-scale surface-to-crown fire transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castle, Drew Clayton

Understanding the conditions leading to the transition of fire spread from a surface fuel to an elevated (crown) fuel is critical to effective fire risk assessment and management. Surface fires that successfully transition to crown fires can be very difficult to suppress, potentially leading to damages in the natural and built environments. This is relevant to chaparral shrub lands which are common throughout parts of the Southwest U.S. and represent a significant part of the wildland urban interface. The ability of the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamic Simulator (WFDS) to model surface-to-crown fire transition was evaluated through comparison to laboratory experiments. The WFDS model is being developed by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The experiments were conducted at the USFS Forest Fire Laboratory in Riverside, California. The experiments measured the ignition of chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) crown fuel held above a surface fire spreading through excelsior fuel. Cases with different crown fuel bulk densities, crown fuel base heights, and imposed wind speeds were considered. Cold-flow simulations yielded wind speed profiles that closely matched the experimental measurements. Next, fire simulations with only the surface fuel were conducted to verify the rate of spread while factors such as substrate properties were varied. Finally, simulations with both a surface fuel and a crown fuel were completed. Examination of specific surface fire characteristics (rate of spread, flame angle, etc.) and the corresponding experimental surface fire behavior provided a basis for comparison of the factors most responsible for transition from a surface fire to the raised fuel ignition. The rate of spread was determined by tracking the flame in the Smokeview animations using a tool developed for tracking an actual flame in a video. WFDS simulations produced results in both surface fire spread and raised fuel bed ignition which closely matched the trends reported in the laboratory experiments.

Liability, regulation, and endogenous risk: the incidence and serverity of escaped prescribed fires in the United States

Treesearch

Jonathan Yoder

2008-01-01

Prescribed fire is a useful but risky method for reducing the general wildfire risk and improving wildlife habitats, biodiversity, timber growth, and agricultural forage. In the past 15 years, laws to further promote the use of prescribed fire have been adopted in several states. This article examines the effect of liability laws and common regulations on the incidence...

Assessing the effect of a fuel break network to reduce burnt area and wildfire risk transmission

Treesearch

Tiago M. Oliveira; Ana M. G. Barros; Alan A. Ager; Paulo M. Fernandes

2016-01-01

Wildfires pose complex challenges to policymakers and fire agencies. Fuel break networks and area-wide fuel treatments are risk-management options to reduce losses from large fires. Two fuel management scenarios covering 3% of the fire-prone Algarve region of Portugal and differing in the intensity of treatment in 120-m wide fuel breaks were examined and compared with...

Fire Detection Organizing Questions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

Verified models of fire precursor transport in low and partial gravity: a. Development of models for large-scale transport in reduced gravity. b. Validated CFD simulations of transport of fire precursors. c. Evaluation of the effect of scale on transport and reduced gravity fires. Advanced fire detection system for gaseous and particulate pre-fire and fire signaturesa: a. Quantification of pre-fire pyrolysis products in microgravity. b. Suite of gas and particulate sensors. c. Reduced gravity evaluation of candidate detector technologies. d. Reduced gravity verification of advanced fire detection system. e. Validated database of fire and pre-fire signatures in low and partial gravity.

Prevalence of risk factors for residential fire and burn injuries in an American Indian community.

PubMed Central

Mobley, C; Sugarman, J R; Deam, C; Giles, L

1994-01-01

Fatality rates from residential fires are high among American Indians. Contact burns and scalds are also among the leading types of thermal injuries. Information about the prevalence of risk factors for burn injuries is required to design interventions aimed at reducing residential fire and burn injuries. The authors conducted a survey in July and August 1992 of 68 households located in a small American Indian community in Washington State to ascertain the prevalence of selected risk factors for residential fire and burn injuries. Nearly all households (96 percent) in the study had a smoke detector, and 95 percent of those tested were functioning. However, a high prevalence of other household characteristics associated with excess risk of residential fire and burn injuries was identified: 59 percent of households had at least one member who smoked, 25 percent had a member who smoked in bed, 38 percent had a member who drank alcohol and smoked at the same time, 46 percent used wood stoves as a heat source, and 15 percent of households were mobile homes. Thirteen percent of households had at least one fire during the previous 3 years, and the incidence of burns due to all causes and requiring medical treatment was 1.5 per 100 persons per year. Hot water temperature was measured to determine the potential risk for scald burns, and 48 percent of households had a maximum hot water temperature of 130 degrees or more Fahrenheit. Such surveys can guide intervention strategies to reduce residential fire and burn injuries in American Indian communities. PMID:7938394

Finding simplicity in complexity: modelling post-fire hydrogeomorphic processes and risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, Gary; Langhans, Christoph; Lane, Patrick; Nyman, Petter

2017-04-01

Post-fire runoff and erosion can shape landscapes, destroy infrastructure, and result in the loss of human life. However even within seemingly similar geographic regions post-fire hydro-geomorphic responses vary from almost no response through to catastrophic flash floods and debris flows. Why is there so much variability, and how can we predict areas at risk? This presentation describes the research journey taken by the post-fire research group at The University of Melbourne to answer this question for the se Australian uplands. Key steps along the way have included identifying the dominant erosion processes (and their forcings), and the key system properties controlling the rates of these dominant processes. The high degree of complexity in the interactions between the forcings, the system properties, and the erosion processes, necessitated the development of a simplified conceptual representation of post-fire hydrogeomorphic system that was conducive to modelling and simulation. Spatially mappable metrics (and proxies) for key system forcings and properties were then required to parameterize and drive the model. Each step in this journey has depended on new research, as well as ongoing feedback from land and water management agencies tasked with implementing these risk models and interpreting the results. These models are now imbedded within agencies and used for strategic risk assessments, for tactical response during fires, and for post-fire remediation and risk planning. Reflecting on the successes and failures along the way provides for some more general insights into the process of developing research-based models for operational use by land and water management agencies.

Risk management: Core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Donald G. MacGregor; Dave Calkin

2016-01-01

The Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture faces a future of increasing complexity and risk, pressing financial issues, and the inescapable possibility of loss of human life. These issues are perhaps most acute for wildland fire management, the highest risk activity in which the Forest Service engages. Risk management (RM) has long been put forth as an...

El Niño Could Drive Intense Season for Amazon Fires

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

El Niño conditions in 2015 and early 2016 altered rainfall patterns around the world. In the Amazon, El Niño reduced rainfall during the wet season, leaving the region drier at the start of the 2016 dry season than any year since 2002, according to NASA satellite data. Wildfire risk for the dry season months of July to October this year now exceeds fire risk in 2005 and 2010, drought years when wildfires burned large areas of Amazon rainforest, said Doug Morton, an Earth scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who helped create the fire forecast. "Severe drought conditions at the start of the dry season set the stage for extreme fire risk in 2016 across the southern Amazon," Morton said. The Amazon fire forecast uses the relationship between climate and active fire detections from NASA satellites to predict fire season severity during the region’s dry season. Developed in 2011 by scientists at University of California, Irvine and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the forecast model is focused particularly on the link between sea surface temperatures and fire activity. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic oceans shift rainfall away from the Amazon region, increasing the risk of fires during dry season months. Read more: go.nasa.gov/2937ADt NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Effect of reducing indoor air pollution on women's respiratory symptoms and lung function: the RESPIRE Randomized Trial, Guatemala.

PubMed

Smith-Sivertsen, Tone; Díaz, Esperanza; Pope, Dan; Lie, Rolv T; Díaz, Anaite; McCracken, John; Bakke, Per; Arana, Byron; Smith, Kirk R; Bruce, Nigel

2009-07-15

Exposure to household wood smoke from cooking is a risk factor for chronic obstructive lung disease among women in developing countries. The Randomized Exposure Study of Pollution Indoors and Respiratory Effects (RESPIRE) is a randomized intervention trial evaluating the respiratory health effects of reducing indoor air pollution from open cooking fires. A total of 504 rural Mayan women in highland Guatemala aged 15-50 years, all using traditional indoor open fires, were randomized to either receive a chimney woodstove (plancha) or continue using the open fire. Assessments of chronic respiratory symptoms and lung function and individual measurements of carbon monoxide exposure were performed at baseline and every 6 months up to 18 months. Use of a plancha significantly reduced carbon monoxide exposure by 61.6%. For all respiratory symptoms, reductions in risk were observed in the plancha group during follow-up; the reduction was statistically significant for wheeze (relative risk = 0.42, 95% confidence interval: 0.25, 0.70). The number of respiratory symptoms reported by the women at each follow-up point was also significantly reduced by the plancha (odds ratio = 0.7, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 0.97). However, no significant effects on lung function were found after 12-18 months. Reducing indoor air pollution from household biomass burning may relieve symptoms consistent with chronic respiratory tract irritation.

Spatial patterns and controls on historical fire regimes and forest structure in the Klamath Mountains

Treesearch

Alan H. Taylor; Carl N. Skinner

2003-01-01

Fire exclusion in mixed conifer forests has increased the risk of fire due to decades of fuel accumulation. Restoration of fire into altered forests is a challenge because of a poor understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of fire regimes. In this study the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire regimes and forest age structure are reconstructed in a...

Effects of fire on fish populations: Landscape perspectives on persistence of native fishes and nonnative fish invasions

Treesearch

Jason B. Dunham; Michael K. Young; Robert E. Gresswell; Bruce E. Rieman

2003-01-01

Our limited understanding of the short and long-term effects of fire on fish contributes to considerable uncertainty in assessments of the risks and benefits of fire management alternatives. A primary concern among the many potential effects of fire is the effects of fire and fire management on persistence of native fish populations. Limited evidence suggests...

Evaluation of Risk and Possible Mitigation Schemes for Previously Unidentified Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linzey, William; McCutchan, Micah; Traskos, Michael; Gilbrech, Richard; Cherney, Robert; Slenski, George; Thomas, Walter, III

2006-01-01

In April 2004, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was commissioned by NASA's Chief Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Officer to review and render a technical opinion on the probability of a catastrophic failure related to this scenario: The Space Shuttle Program (SSP) recognized a zero-fault-tolerant design related to an inadvertent firing of the primary reaction control system (RCS) jets on the Orbiter during mated operations with the International Space Station (ISS). It was determined that an un-commanded firing of an RCS jet could cause serious damage or loss of both the SSP Orbiter and the ISS. Several scenarios were suggested in which an un-commanded firing of the RCS jet is possible. These scenarios include an arc track event in the 28-volt heater circuits that could result in a wire-to-wire short to the adjacent reaction control jet wire. In this worst-case scenario, enough current and power could be applied to activate the reaction control jet valves and fire a thruster. The following report summarizes the work that was sponsored by the NESC as part of their assessment of the Orbiter inadvertent firing of a RCS thruster while attached to the ISS.

The biodiversity cost of carbon sequestration in tropical savanna

PubMed Central

Abreu, Rodolfo C. R.; Hoffmann, William A.; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L.; Pilon, Natashi A.; Rossatto, Davi R.; Durigan, Giselda

2017-01-01

Tropical savannas have been increasingly viewed as an opportunity for carbon sequestration through fire suppression and afforestation, but insufficient attention has been given to the consequences for biodiversity. To evaluate the biodiversity costs of increasing carbon sequestration, we quantified changes in ecosystem carbon stocks and the associated changes in communities of plants and ants resulting from fire suppression in savannas of the Brazilian Cerrado, a global biodiversity hotspot. Fire suppression resulted in increased carbon stocks of 1.2 Mg ha−1 year−1 since 1986 but was associated with acute species loss. In sites fully encroached by forest, plant species richness declined by 27%, and ant richness declined by 35%. Richness of savanna specialists, the species most at risk of local extinction due to forest encroachment, declined by 67% for plants and 86% for ants. This loss highlights the important role of fire in maintaining biodiversity in tropical savannas, a role that is not reflected in current policies of fire suppression throughout the Brazilian Cerrado. In tropical grasslands and savannas throughout the tropics, carbon mitigation programs that promote forest cover cannot be assumed to provide net benefits for conservation. PMID:28875172

Health concerns of the U.S. fire service: perspectives from the firehouse.

PubMed

Jahnke, Sara A; Poston, Walker S C; Jitnarin, Nattinee; Haddock, C Keith

2012-01-01

Firefighters are expected to respond to any domestic emergency at a moment's notice, and therefore their health and readiness are key to the public safety net. Although emerging research is focusing on understanding firefighters' increased risk for disease and injury, the perspectives of fire service personnel is lacking. This study uses the cross-sectional qualitative data collection techniques of key informant interviews and focus groups. Data collection occurred with a national sample of firefighters from 28 (municipal and federal) career fire departments. Participants were 332 career firefighters (57.2%), company officers (23.4%), fire chiefs (15.4%), and other fire service personnel (3.9%). Focus groups and informant interviews were conducted with firefighters, fire chiefs, health promotion personnel, and medical directors to assess attitudes, opinions, and perceptions about firefighter health. Major themes that developed among fire service personnel included concerns about cancer, risk of cardiovascular disease, the importance of and barriers to physical fitness, the food culture of the firehouse, psychological stress resulting from repeated exposure to trauma, sleep disruptions, injuries, and risk for infectious disease. Health concerns identified by firefighters are juxtaposed with current efforts and trends within the national fire service. The health concerns of firefighters parallel both available epidemiological research and the health priorities of national fire service organizations. Unfortunately, these concerns often are in contrast with efforts by local governments to limit their financial liability for illnesses presumed to be caused by occupational exposures and long-held traditions in the fire service. This study highlights the need for epidemiological surveillance of firefighters and innovative health and organizational policy in the fire service. Future directions for the fire service, the public health community, and researchers are discussed.

Risk management of emergency service vehicle crashes in the United States fire service: process, outputs, and recommendations.

PubMed

Bui, David P; Pollack Porter, Keshia; Griffin, Stephanie; French, Dustin D; Jung, Alesia M; Crothers, Stephen; Burgess, Jefferey L

2017-11-17

Emergency service vehicle crashes (ESVCs) are a leading cause of death in the United States fire service. Risk management (RM) is a proactive process for identifying occupational risks and reducing hazards and unwanted events through an iterative process of scoping hazards, risk assessment, and implementing controls. We describe the process, outputs, and lessons learned from the application of a proactive RM process to reduce ESVCs in US fire departments. Three fire departments representative of urban, suburban, and rural geographies, participated in a facilitated RM process delivered through focus groups and stakeholder discussion. Crash reports from department databases were reviewed to characterize the context, circumstances, hazards and risks of ESVCs. Identified risks were ranked using a risk matrix that considered risk likelihood and severity. Department-specific control measures were selected based on group consensus. Interviews, and focus groups were used to assess acceptability and utility of the RM process and perceived facilitators and barriers of implementation. Three to six RM meetings were conducted at each fire department. There were 7.4 crashes per 100 personnel in the urban department and 10.5 per 100 personnel in the suburban department; the rural department experienced zero crashes. All departments identified emergency response, backing, on scene struck by, driver distraction, vehicle/road visibility, and driver training as high or medium concerns. Additional high priority risks varied by department; the urban department prioritized turning and rear ending crashes; the suburban firefighters prioritized inclement weather/road environment and low visibility related crashes; and the rural volunteer fire department prioritized exiting station, vehicle failure, and inclement weather/road environment related incidents. Selected controls included new policies and standard operating procedures to reduce emergency response, cameras to enhance driver visibility while backing, and increased training frequency and enhanced training. The RM process was generally acceptable to department participants and considered useful. All departments reported that the focused and systematic analysis of crashes was particularly helpful. Implementation of controls was a commonly cited challenge. Proactive RM of ESVCs in three US fire departments was positively received and supported the establishment of interventions tailored to each department's needs and priorities.

Comparison of the characteristics of fire and non-fire households in the 2004-2005 survey of fire department-attended and unattended fires.

PubMed

Greene, Michael A

2012-06-01

Comparison of characteristics of fire with non-fire households to determine factors differentially associated with fire households (fire risk factors). National household telephone survey in 2004-2005 by the US Consumer Product Safety Commission with 916 fire households and a comparison sample of 2161 non-fire households. There were an estimated 7.4 million fires (96.6% not reported to fire departments) with 130,000 injuries. Bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess differences in household characteristics. Significant factors associated with fire households were renting vs. owning (OR 1.988 p<0.0001); household members under 18 year of age (OR 1.277 p<0.0001); lack of residents over 64 years old (OR 0.552 p=0.0007); and college or higher education (some college OR 1.444 p=0.0360, college graduate OR 1.873, p<0.0001, postgraduate OR 2.156 p<0.0001). Not significant were age of house; race; ethnicity; and income. Number of smokers was borderline significant (OR 1.132 p=0.1019) but was significant in the subset of fire households with non-cooking fires (OR 1.383 p=0.0011). Single family houses were associated with non-fire households in the bivariate analysis but not in the multivariate analyses. Renting, household members under 18 years old and smokers are risk factors for unattended fires, similar to the literature for fatal and injury fires. Differences included household members over 65 years old (associated with non-fire households), college/postgraduate education (associated with fire households) and lack of significance of income. Preventing cooking fires (64% of survey incidents), smoking prevention efforts and fire prevention education for families with young children have the potential for reducing unattended fires and injuries.

Working toward the elimination of residential fire deaths: the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Smoke Alarm Installation and Fire Safety Education (SAIFE) program.

PubMed

Ballesteros, Michael F; Jackson, Mark L; Martin, Maurice W

2005-01-01

To address residential fires and related injuries, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention funds state health departments to deliver a Smoke Alarm Installation and Fire Safety Education (SAIFE) program in high-risk homes in 16 states. This program involves recruiting local communities and community partners, hiring a local coordinator, canvassing neighborhood homes, installing long-lasting lithium-powered smoke alarms, and providing general fire safety education and 6-month follow-up to determine alarm functionality. Local fire departments are vital community partners in delivering this program. Since the program's inception, more than 212,000 smoke alarms have been installed in more than 126,000 high-risk homes. Additionally, approximately 610 lives have potentially been saved as a result of a program alarm that provided early warning to a dangerous fire incident.

Heightened fire risk in Indonesia in response to increasing temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

2016-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

Determining critical groundwater level to prevent degraded peatland from severe peat fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putra, E. I.; Cochrane, M. A.; Vetrita, Y.; Graham, L.; Saharjo, B. H.

2018-05-01

Peat fires have been a severe recurrent problem for Indonesia, but droughts due to prolonged dry season aggravate burning conditions. To get a better understanding of this issue, we studied fire conditions in a portion of the ex-Mega Rice Project (MRP) area, Central Kalimantan. To examine fire season and hydrology factors affecting peat fires we analyzed daily TRMM data, Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies, and changing groundwater levels (GWL) from 300 dipwells. Our results quantify time-lags between the period of lowest precipitation and the lowest GWL; providing some ability to predict fire risk in advance of the lowest GWL. The rise of Nino 3.4 SST anomalies is significant risk factors for peat fire as they signify dry months which may yield large fire occurrences. GWL in 2011 was lower than in 2012, but fires were more frequent in 2012, indicating that low precipitation amounts in the wet season of 2011/2012 left the peat in a dry condition early in 2012. Most of the fires occurred in areas with GWL less than -30 cm, powerfully illustrating the importance of maintaining GWL at more than -10 cm, to prevent degraded peatlands from experiencing surface and deep peat fires.

Lumber recovery from small-diameter ponderosa pine from Flagstaff, Arizona

Treesearch

Eini C. Lowell; David W. Green

2001-01-01

Thousands of acres of densely stocked ponderosa pine forests surround Flagstaff, AZ. These stands are at high risk of fire, insect, and disease outbreak. Stand density management activity can be expensive, but product recovery from the thinned material could help defray removal costs. This project evaluated the yield and economic return of lumber recovered from small-...

Analyzing the economics of tamarisk in the Pecos, Rio Grande, and Colorado River Watersheds

Treesearch

Joseph W. Lewis; Allen Basala; Erika Zavaleta; Douglas L. Parker; John Taylor; Mark Horner; Christopher Dionigi; Timothy Carlson; Samuel Spiller; Frederick Nibling

2006-01-01

The potential economic effects of tamarisk (saltcedar), and the costs and benefits associated with controlling tamarisk infestations are being evaluated on the Pecos, Rio Grande, and Colorado River watersheds. Resource impacts analyzed include water, wildlife habitat, and fire risk. The extent of existing infestations will be quantified and projected over the next 30...

Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models

Treesearch

Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

2012-01-01

The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) uses spatial vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) to forecast future vegetation conditions and the interacting effects of natural disturbances and management activities. Results from ILAP will help land managers, planners, and policymakers evaluate management strategies that reduce fire risk, improve...

A probabilistic approach to modeling postfire erosion after the 2009 Australian bushfires

Treesearch

P. R. Robichaud; W. J. Elliot; F. B. Pierson; D. E. Hall; C. A. Moffet

2009-01-01

Major concerns after bushfires and wildfires include increased flooding, erosion and debris flows due to loss of the protective forest floor layer, loss of water storage, and creation of water repellent soil conditions. To assist postfire assessment teams in their efforts to evaluate fire effects and make postfire treatment decisions, a web-based Erosion Risk...

Risk perceptions and behavioral context: U.S. Forest Service fire management professionals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Jonathan G.; Carpenter, Edwin H.; Cortner, Hanna J.; Cleaves, David A.

1989-01-01

Fire managers from the U.S. Forest Service were surveyed to determine which decision factors most strongly influenced their fire‐risk decisions. Safety, the resources at risk, public opinion, and the reliability of information were important influences on these decisions. This research allowed direct comparison between fire managers’ perceptions of factor importance and how their fire‐risk decisions changed in response to those factors. These risk decisions were highly responsive to changes in context (an escaped wildfire decision versus a prescribed burning decision) as well as to changing factors. The results demonstrate the utility of using scenarios in risk research and the vital importance of context in studying risk‐taking behavior. Research which attempts to remove risk decisions from their real‐world context may well distort the nature of risk‐taking behavior.

Fire management strategies to maintain species population processes in a fragmented landscape of fire-interval extremes.

PubMed

Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Pichancourt, Jean-Baptiste; Gosper, Carl R; Sanders, Angela; Chadès, Iadine

2016-10-01

Changed fire regimes have led to declines of fire-regime-adapted species and loss of biodiversity globally. Fire affects population processes of growth, reproduction, and dispersal in different ways, but there is little guidance about the best fire regime(s) to maintain species population processes in fire-prone ecosystems. We use a process-based approach to determine the best range of fire intervals for keystone plant species in a highly modified Mediterranean ecosystem in southwestern Australia where current fire regimes vary. In highly fragmented areas, fires are few due to limited ignitions and active suppression of wildfire on private land, while in highly connected protected areas fires are frequent and extensive. Using matrix population models, we predict population growth of seven Banksia species under different environmental conditions and patch connectivity, and evaluate the sensitivity of species survival to different fire management strategies and burning intervals. We discover that contrasting, complementary patterns of species life-histories with time since fire result in no single best fire regime. All strategies result in the local patch extinction of at least one species. A small number of burning strategies secure complementary species sets depending on connectivity and post-fire growing conditions. A strategy of no fire always leads to fewer species persisting than prescribed fire or random wildfire, while too-frequent or too-rare burning regimes lead to the possible local extinction of all species. In low landscape connectivity, we find a smaller range of suitable fire intervals, and strategies of prescribed or random burning result in a lower number of species with positive growth rates after 100 years on average compared with burning high connectivity patches. Prescribed fire may reduce or increase extinction risk when applied in combination with wildfire depending on patch connectivity. Poor growing conditions result in a significantly reduced number of species exhibiting positive growth rates after 100 years of management. By exploring the consequences of managing fire, we are able to identify which species are likely to disappear under a given fire regime. Identifying the appropriate complementarity of fire intervals, and their species-specific as well as community-level consequences, is crucial to reduce local extinctions of species in fragmented fire-prone landscapes. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Mapping regional patterns of large forest fires in Wildland-Urban Interface areas in Europe.

PubMed

Modugno, Sirio; Balzter, Heiko; Cole, Beth; Borrelli, Pasquale

2016-05-01

Over recent decades, Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) trends in many regions of Europe have reconfigured the landscape structures around many urban areas. In these areas, the proximity to landscape elements with high forest fuels has increased the fire risk to people and property. These Wildland-Urban Interface areas (WUI) can be defined as landscapes where anthropogenic urban land use and forest fuel mass come into contact. Mapping their extent is needed to prioritize fire risk control and inform local forest fire risk management strategies. This study proposes a method to map the extent and spatial patterns of the European WUI areas at continental scale. Using the European map of WUI areas, the hypothesis is tested that the distance from the nearest WUI area is related to the forest fire probability. Statistical relationships between the distance from the nearest WUI area, and large forest fire incidents from satellite remote sensing were subsequently modelled by logistic regression analysis. The first European scale map of the WUI extent and locations is presented. Country-specific positive and negative relationships of large fires and the proximity to the nearest WUI area are found. A regional-scale analysis shows a strong influence of the WUI zones on large fires in parts of the Mediterranean regions. Results indicate that the probability of large burned surfaces increases with diminishing WUI distance in touristic regions like Sardinia, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or in regions with a strong peri-urban component as Catalunya, Comunidad de Madrid, Comunidad Valenciana. For the above regions, probability curves of large burned surfaces show statistical relationships (ROC value > 0.5) inside a 5000 m buffer of the nearest WUI. Wise land management can provide a valuable ecosystem service of fire risk reduction that is currently not explicitly included in ecosystem service valuations. The results re-emphasise the importance of including this ecosystem service in landscape valuations to account for the significant landscape function of reducing the risk of catastrophic large fires. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

In the Line of Fire.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy, Mike

2001-01-01

Highlights the importance of using sprinkler systems in school residence halls to prevent fire fatalities. Understanding the risks involved, retrofitting schools to meet these risks, and realizing the need to extend safety education to off-campus housing are discussed. (GR)

75 FR 47824 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request, OMB No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-09

...; U.S. Fire Administration's National Fire Academy Evaluation Collection AGENCY: Federal Emergency... Information Title: U.S. Fire Administration's National Fire Academy Evaluation Collection. Type of Information...

Chapter 1: Fire and fuels reduction

Treesearch

B.M. Collins; S.L. Stephens

2012-01-01

Fire will continue to be a major management challenge in mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada. Fire is a fundamental ecosystem process in these forests that was largely eliminated in the 20th century. Fire reintroduction is a critical goal but is subject to constraints such as smoke production, risk of fire moving outside designated boundaries, the expanding...

Fire risk in east-side forests.

Treesearch

Valerie. Rapp

2002-01-01

Wildfire was a natural part of ecosystems in east-side Oregon and Washington before the 20th century. The fire regimes, or characteristic patterns of fire—how often, how hot, how big, what time of year—helped create and maintain various types of forests.Forests are dynamic, and fire interacts with other ecological processes. Fires, forests...

Depopulation of rural landscapes exacerbates fire activity in the western Amazon.

PubMed

Uriarte, María; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miquel; DeFries, Ruth S; Fernandes, Katia; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Baethgen, Walter E; Padoch, Christine

2012-12-26

Destructive fires in Amazonia have occurred in the past decade, leading to forest degradation, carbon emissions, impaired air quality, and property damage. Here, we couple climate, geospatial, and province-level census data, with farmer surveys to examine the climatic, demographic, and land use factors associated with fire frequency in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010. Although our results corroborate previous findings elsewhere that drought and proximity to roads increase fire frequency, the province-scale analysis further identifies decreases in rural populations as an additional factor. Farmer survey data suggest that increased burn scar frequency and size reflect increased flammability of emptying rural landscapes and reduced capacity to control fire. With rural populations projected to decline, more frequent drought, and expansion of road infrastructure, fire risk is likely to increase in western Amazonia. Damage from fire can be reduced through warning systems that target high-risk locations, coordinated fire fighting efforts, and initiatives that provide options for people to remain in rural landscapes.

Depopulation of rural landscapes exacerbates fire activity in the western Amazon

PubMed Central

Uriarte, María; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miquel; DeFries, Ruth S.; Fernandes, Katia; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Baethgen, Walter E.; Padoch, Christine

2012-01-01

Destructive fires in Amazonia have occurred in the past decade, leading to forest degradation, carbon emissions, impaired air quality, and property damage. Here, we couple climate, geospatial, and province-level census data, with farmer surveys to examine the climatic, demographic, and land use factors associated with fire frequency in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010. Although our results corroborate previous findings elsewhere that drought and proximity to roads increase fire frequency, the province-scale analysis further identifies decreases in rural populations as an additional factor. Farmer survey data suggest that increased burn scar frequency and size reflect increased flammability of emptying rural landscapes and reduced capacity to control fire. With rural populations projected to decline, more frequent drought, and expansion of road infrastructure, fire risk is likely to increase in western Amazonia. Damage from fire can be reduced through warning systems that target high-risk locations, coordinated fire fighting efforts, and initiatives that provide options for people to remain in rural landscapes. PMID:23236144

Interventions for promoting smoke alarm ownership and function.

PubMed

DiGuiseppi, C; Higgins, J P

2001-01-01

Residential fires caused at least 67 deaths and 2,500 non-fatal injuries to children aged 0-16 in the United Kingdom in 1998. Smoke alarm ownership is associated with a reduced risk of residential fire death. We evaluated interventions to promote residential smoke alarms, to assess their effect on smoke alarm ownership, smoke alarm function, fires and burns and other fire-related injuries. We searched the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Cochrane Injuries Group database, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycLIT, CINAHL, ERIC, Dissertation Abstracts, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, ISTP, FIREDOC and LRC. Conference proceedings, published case studies, and bibliographies were systematically searched, and investigators and relevant organisations were contacted, to identify trials. Randomised, quasi-randomised or nonrandomised controlled trials completed or published after 1969 evaluating an intervention to promote residential smoke alarms. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed trial quality. We identified 26 trials, of which 13 were randomised. Overall, counselling and educational interventions had only a modest effect on the likelihood of owning an alarm (OR=1.26; 95% CI: 0.87 to 1.82) or having a functional alarm (OR=1.19; 0.85 to 1.66). Counselling as part of primary care child health surveillance had greater effects on ownership (OR=1.96; 1.03 to 3.72) and function (OR=1.72; 0.78 to 3.80). Results were sensitive to trial quality, however, and effects on fire-related injuries were not reported. In two non randomised trials, direct provision of free alarms significantly increased functioning alarms and reduced fire-related injuries. Media and community education showed little benefit in non randomised trials. Counselling as part of child health surveillance may increase smoke alarm ownership and function, but its effects on injuries are unevaluated. Community smoke alarm give-away programmes apparently reduce fire-related injuries, but these trials were not randomised and results must be interpreted cautiously. Further efforts to promote smoke alarms in primary care or through give-away programmes should be evaluated by adequately designed randomised controlled trials measuring injury outcomes.

Psychopathic traits among a consecutive sample of Finnish pretrial fire-setting offenders.

PubMed

Thomson, Annika; Tiihonen, Jari; Miettunen, Jouko; Sailas, Eila; Virkkunen, Matti; Lindberg, Nina

2015-03-10

Psychopathy, a severe disorder of personality, is well represented in the criminal and forensic psychiatric population and is significantly associated with increased risk of violence and crime. Fire-setting is a major source of property damage, injury, and death in many Western countries. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate psychopathic traits in a consecutive sample of Finnish male pretrial fire-setting offenders. Further, we wanted to investigate whether fire-setting recidivists show higher traits of psychopathy than one-time firesetters and whether exclusive firesetters show lower traits of psychopathy than those with criminal versatility. The forensic psychiatric examination statements for male firesetters who underwent a pretrial forensic psychiatric evaluation during a 10-year period (1989 -1998) were reviewed. The sample comprised 129 firesetters with normal IQ, 41 of whom were fire-setting recidivists. Fifty men were exclusive firesetters. Assessment of psychopathy-like personality character was performed using the 20-item Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised. Two individuals (1.6%, 95% Cl: 0.0-3.7) scored ≥30 points and 19 (14.7%, 95% Cl: 8.6-20.8) ≥ 25 points on the PCL-R. The mean PCL-R total score was 16.1 (SD 6.88), the mean Factor 1 score 5.0 (SD 3.41), and the mean Factor 2 score 9.9 (SD 3.86). No significant differences emerged between the recidivists and the one-time firesetters. The versatile firesetters exhibited significantly higher mean total and factor scores than the exclusive ones. Among firesetters, there is a subgroup of persons with significant psychopathic traits, which should be recognized in legal and health care organizations. Although psychopathy was associated with greater criminal versatility, it bore no relationship to fire-setting recidivism.

More stapler firings increase the risk of perioperative morbidity after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy.

PubMed

Major, Piotr; Wysocki, Michał; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Pisarska, Magdalena; Małczak, Piotr; Wierdak, Mateusz; Dembiński, Marcin; Migaczewski, Marcin; Rubinkiewicz, Mateusz; Budzyński, Andrzej

2018-03-01

Staple-line bleeding and leakage are the most common serious complications of laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. The relationship between multiple stapler firings and higher risk of postoperative complications is well defined in colorectal surgery but has not been addressed in bariatric procedures so far. Identification of new factors such as "the numbers of stapler firings used during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG)" as a predictor for complications can lead to optimization of the patient care at bariatric centers. To determine the association between perioperative morbidity and the number of stapler firings during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. This observational study was based on retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in patients operated on for morbid obesity in a teaching hospital/tertiary referral center for general surgery. The patients who underwent LSG were analyzed in terms of the number of stapler firings used as a new potential risk predictor for postoperative complications after surgery, adjusting for other patient- and treatment-related factors. The study included 333 patients (209 women, 124 men, mean age: 40 ±11). During the first 30 days after surgery, complications were observed in 18 (5.41%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that prolonging operative time increased morbidity (every minute, OR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00-1.02) and the complication rate increased with the number of stapler firings (every firing, OR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.09-3.33; p = 0.023). Additional stapler firings above the usual number and a prolonged operation should alert a surgeon and the whole team about increased risk of postoperative complications.

Effects of risk attitudes on extended attack fire management decisionmaking

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

Fire management inherently involves the assessment and management of risk, and decision making under uncertainty. Although organizational standards and guides are an important determinant of how decision problems are structured and framed, decision makers may view risk-based decisions from a perspective that is unique to their background and experience. Previous...

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Patch to landscape patterns in post fire recruitment of a serotinous conifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ne'eman, Gidi; Fotheringham, C.J.; Keeley, J.E.

1999-01-01

Obligate seeding species are highly specialized to fire disturbance and many conifers such as cypress, which are adapted to high intensity stand-replacing fires, have canopy seed banks stored in serotinous cones. Resilience of these trees to fire disturbance is a function of disturbance frequency and one focus of this study was to determine the effect of patch age on postfire recruitment. A second focus was to determine the extent to which fire induced a landscape level change in the location of the forest boundary. Prior to a fire in 1994, a large Cupressus sargentii forest was a mosaic landscape of different aged patches of nearly pure cypress bordered by chaparral. Patches less than 60 years of age were relatively dense with roughly one tree every 1-2 m2 but older patches had thinned to one tree every 3-15 m2. Older trees had substantially greater canopy cone crops but the stand level seed bank size was not significantly correlated with stand age. Fire-dependent obligate seeding species are sensitive to fire return interval because of potential changes in the size of seed banks - facing both a potential 'immaturity risk' and a 'senescence risk'. At our site, C. sargentii regeneration was substantial in stands as young as 20 years, suggesting that fire return interval would need to be shorter than this to pose any significant risk. Reduced seedling recruitment in stands nearly 100 years of age may indicate risk from senescence is greater, however, even the lowest density seedling recruitment was many times greater than the density of mature forests - thus this cypress would appear to be resilient to a wide range of fire return intervals. Changes in landscape patterning of forest and chaparral are unlikely except after fire. Factors that inhibit tree establishment within the shrubland, as well as factors that affect shrub establishment within the forest border likely affect the 'permeability' of this ecotone. After the 1994 fire this boundary appeared to be stable in that cypress recruited best within the shadow of burned canopies and cypress were weak invaders of adjacent shrublands.

Risk for large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2015-08-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on the number of large forest fires (over 10 ha fires) and burned area in Finland. For this purpose, we utilized a strong relationship between fire occurrence and the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) during 1996-2014. We used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. Our results also reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase in forest-fire danger. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is more important cause of fires.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

PubMed

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for ‘extensive cattle ranching’, ‘agro-silvopastoral use’ and ‘intensive cattle ranching and agriculture’. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future. PMID:27632528

A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management

Treesearch

Carol Miller; Alan A. Ager

2012-01-01

Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyze the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels...

User Perspectives of Characteristics of Improved Cookstoves from a Field Evaluation in Western Kenya

PubMed Central

Loo, Jennifer D.; Hyseni, Lirije; Ouda, Rosebel; Koske, Selline; Nyagol, Ronald; Sadumah, Ibrahim; Bashin, Michelle; Sage, Mike; Bruce, Nigel; Pilishvili, Tamara; Stanistreet, Debbi

2016-01-01

Over half of the world’s population uses biomass fuels; these households cook on open fires indoors, increasing their risk of adverse health effects due to household air pollution (HAP) from biomass combustion. This study evaluated six improved cookstoves (ICS) for effectiveness and acceptability in a rural community in Western Kenya. This paper describes women’s views on each ICS compared to the traditional three-stone fire. Views on stove characteristics, fuel consumption, health effects and acceptability were assessed through structured interviews and focus group discussions. Data were coded and analyzed using a thematic approach. In total, 262 interviews and 11 focus groups were conducted from 43 women. Overall, women preferred the ICS over the traditional three-stone fire for various reasons including ease of use, efficiency, fuel efficiency and perceived reduction in smoke and improved health. However, there were clear preferences for specific ICS with almost half of women preferring a Philips stove. Despite acceptance and use of ICS, women used multiple stoves to meet their daily needs. Qualitative studies are essential to field evaluations to provide insight into user perspectives and acceptability of ICS and to inform research and development of technologies that are both effective in reducing HAP and practical in use. PMID:26828505

Wildfire risk assessment in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface of Greece.

PubMed

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Wildfire Risk Assessment in a Typical Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interface of Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Analysis of zone of vulnurability and impact of forest fires in forest ecosystems in north algeria by susing remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zegrar, Ahmed

2010-05-01

The Forest in steppe present ecological diversity, and seen climatic unfavourable conditions in zone and impact of forest fires; we notes deterioration of physical environment particularly, deterioration of natural forest. This deterioration of forests provokes an unbalance of environment witch provokes a process of deterioration advanced in the ultimate stadium is desertification. By elsewhere, where climatic conditions are favourable, the fire is an ecological and acted agent like integral part of evolution of the ecosystems, the specific regeneration of plants are influenced greatly by the regime of fire (season of fire, intensity, interval), witch leads to the recuperation of the vegetation of meadow- fire. In this survey we used the pictures ALSAT-1 for detection of zones with risk of forest fire and their impact on the naturals forests in region named TLEMCEN in the north west of Algeria. A thematic detailed analysis of forests well attended ecosystems some processing on the picture ALSAT-1, we allowed to identify and classifying the forests in there opinion components flowers. We identified ampleness of fire on this zone also. Some parameters as the slope, the proximity to the road and the forests formations were studied in the goal of determining the zones to risk of forest fire. A crossing of diaper of information in a GIS according to a very determined logic allowed classifying the zones in degree of risk of fire in semi arid zone witch forest zone not encouraging the regeneration but permitting the installation of cash of steppe which encourages the desertification.

Forest fires impact in semi arid lands in Algeria, analysis and followed of desertification by using remote sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zegrar, Ahmed

The Forest in steppe present ecological diversity, and seen climatic unfavourable conditions in zone and impact of forest fires; we notes deterioration of physical environment particularly, deterioration of natural forest. This deterioration of forests provokes an unbalance of environment witch provokes a process of deterioration advanced in the ultimate stadium is desertification. By elsewhere, where climatic conditions are favourable, the fire is an ecological and acted agent like integral part of evolution of the ecosystems, the specific regeneration of plants are influenced greatly by the regime of fire (season of fire, intensity, interval), who leads to the recuperation of the vegetation of meadow- fire. In this survey we used the pictures ALSAT-1 for detection of zones with risk of forest fire and their impact on the naturals forests in region of Tlemcen. A thematic detailed analysis of forests well attended ecosystems some processing on the picture ALSAT-1, we allowed to identify and classifying the forests in there opinion components flowers. we identified ampleness of fire on this zone also. Some parameters as the slope, the proximity to the road and the forests formations were studied in the goal of determining the zones to risk of forest fire. A crossing of diaper of information in a SIG according to a very determined logic allowed to classify the zones in degree of risk of fire in a middle arid in a forest zone not encouraging the regeneration on the other hand permitting the installation of cash of steppe which encourages the desertification.

Investigating the effect of banning non-reduced ignition propensity cigarettes on fatal residential fires in Sweden.

PubMed

Bonander, Carl M; Jonsson, Anders P; Nilson, Finn T

2016-04-01

Annually, 100 people die as a result of residential fires in Sweden and almost a third of the fatal fires are known to be caused by smoking. In an attempt to reduce the occurrence of these events, reduced ignition propensity (RIP) cigarettes have been developed. They are designed to reduce the risk of fire by preventing the cigarette from burning through the full length when left unattended. In November 2011, a ban was introduced, forbidding the production and sale of all non-RIP cigarettes in all member states of the European Union, including Sweden. Monthly data on all recorded residential fires and associated fatalities in Sweden from January 2000 to December 2013 were analyzed using an interrupted time series design. The effect of the intervention [in relative risk (RR)] was quantified using generalised additive models for location, shape and scale. There were no statistically significant intervention effects on residential fires (RR 0.95 [95% CI: 0.89-1.01]), fatal residential fires (RR 0.99 [95% CI: 0.80-1.23]), residential fires where smoking was a known cause (RR 1.10 [95% CI: 0.95-1.28]) or fatal residential fires where smoking was a known cause (RR 0.92 [95% CI: 0.63-1.35]). No evidence of an effect of the ban on all non-RIP cigarettes on the risk of residential fires in Sweden was found. The results may not be generalisable to other countries. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Wyoming: Jackson Hole

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2014-05-15

... Park and Bridger-Teton National Forest Interagency Fire Management Office announced a high risk for the area. The Green Knoll blaze is ... July 27, 2001 - Green Knoll forest fire. project:  MISR category:  gallery Fires date:  ...

Strategic oil reserves catch fire too

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crull, A.W.

The Federal strategic oil storage site at West Hackberry Dome in Louisiana caught fire in spite of DOE assurances that this is the safest way to store oil. Most of the oil was recovered, although confusion at the site aggravated the problem in getting the fire under control. DOE called the incident an industrial accident, but has not acknowledged the risks involved in all aspects of petroleum drilling or handling -- and the drastic limits of personnel able to handle resulting accidents. Inteviews with Boots and Coots, a team of fire fighters in Houston, provided the author with details ofmore » oil fires and ways to deal with them. The oil fire fighters point out that all energy source development and storage involves some risk and that steps should be taken to train personnel to deal with the negative aspects of petroleum.« less

Applications of Principled Search Methods in Climate Influences and Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glymour, Clark

2005-01-01

Forest and grass fires cause economic losses in the billions of dollars in the U.S. alone. In addition, boreal forests constitute a large carbon store; it has been estimated that, were no burning to occur, an additional 7 gigatons of carbon would be sequestered in boreal soils each century. Effective wildfire suppression requires anticipation of locales and times for which wildfire is most probable, preferably with a two to four week forecast, so that limited resources can be efficiently deployed. The United States Forest Service (USFS), and other experts and agencies have developed several measures of fire risk combining physical principles and expert judgment, and have used them in automated procedures for forecasting fire risk. Forecasting accuracies for some fire risk indices in combination with climate and other variables have been estimated for specific locations, with the value of fire risk index variables assessed by their statistical significance in regressions. In other cases, the MAPSS forecasts [23, 241 for example, forecasting accuracy has been estimated only by simulated data. We describe alternative forecasting methods that predict fire probability by locale and time using statistical or machine learning procedures trained on historical data, and we give comparative assessments of their forecasting accuracy for one fire season year, April- October, 2003, for all U.S. Forest Service lands. Aside from providing an accuracy baseline for other forecasting methods, the results illustrate the interdependence between the statistical significance of prediction variables and the forecasting method used.

Developing an assessment of fire-setting to guide treatment in secure settings: the St Andrew's Fire and Arson Risk Instrument (SAFARI).

PubMed

Long, Clive G; Banyard, Ellen; Fulton, Barbara; Hollin, Clive R

2014-09-01

Arson and fire-setting are highly prevalent among patients in secure psychiatric settings but there is an absence of valid and reliable assessment instruments and no evidence of a significant approach to intervention. To develop a semi-structured interview assessment specifically for fire-setting to augment structured assessments of risk and need. The extant literature was used to frame interview questions relating to the antecedents, behaviour and consequences necessary to formulate a functional analysis. Questions also covered readiness to change, fire-setting self-efficacy, the probability of future fire-setting, barriers to change, and understanding of fire-setting behaviour. The assessment concludes with indications for assessment and a treatment action plan. The inventory was piloted with a sample of women in secure care and was assessed for comprehensibility, reliability and validity. Staff rated the St Andrews Fire and Risk Instrument (SAFARI) as acceptable to patients and easy to administer. SAFARI was found to be comprehensible by over 95% of the general population, to have good acceptance, high internal reliability, substantial test-retest reliability and validity. SAFARI helps to provide a clear explanation of fire-setting in terms of the complex interplay of antecedents and consequences and facilitates the design of an individually tailored treatment programme in sympathy with a cognitive-behavioural approach. Further studies are needed to verify the reliability and validity of SAFARI with male populations and across settings.

Integrating climatic and fuels information into National Fire Risk Decision Support Tools

Treesearch

W. Cooke; V. Anantharaj; C. Wax; J. Choi; K. Grala; M. Jolly; G.P. Dixon; J. Dyer; D.L. Evans; G.B. Goodrich

2007-01-01

The Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) is a component of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Decision Support Systems (DSS) that support fire potential modeling. Fire potential models for Mississippi and for Eastern fire environments have been developed as part of a National Aeronautic and Space Agency-funded study aimed at demonstrating the utility...

Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin

Treesearch

W. Matt Jolly; Patrick H. Freeborn

2017-01-01

Wildland firefighters must assess potential fire behaviour in order to develop appropriate strategies and tactics that will safely meet objectives. Fire danger indices integrate surface weather conditions to quantify potential variations in fire spread rates and intensities and therefore should closely relate to observed fire behaviour. These indices could better...

Presettlement fire regime and vegetation mapping in Southeastern Coastal Plain forest ecosystems

Treesearch

Andrew D. Bailey; Robert Mickler; Cecil Frost

2007-01-01

Fire-adapted forest ecosystems make up 95 percent of the historic Coastal Plain vegetation types in the Southeastern United States. Fire suppression over the last century has altered the species composition of these ecosystems, increased fuel loads, and increased wildfire risk. Prescribed fire is one management tool used to reduce fuel loading and restore fire-adapted...

Act Quickly! Seconds Count! Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogden, Bob; Hayter, Roy, Ed.

This booklet is designed to help hotel employees know what to do if a fire breaks out in the hotel. It also gives hints and suggestions that will help employees to reduce the risk of a fire occurring. Topics are as follows: an employee's responsibility if a fire breaks out; procedures to follow in the event of fire; mapping fire exits and escape…

Info-Gap Decision Theory for Assessing the Management of Catchments for Timber Production and Urban Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, Michael A.; Lindenmayer, David B.

2007-04-01

While previous studies have examined how forest management is influenced by the risk of fire, they rely on probabilistic estimates of the occurrence and impacts of fire. However, nonprobabilistic approaches are required for assessing the importance of fire risk when data are poor but risks are appreciable. We explore impacts of fire risk on forest management using as a case study a water catchment in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) (southeastern Australia). In this forested area, urban water supply and timber yields from exotic plantations are potential joint but also competing land uses. Our analyses were stimulated by extensive wildfires in early 2003 that burned much of the existing exotic pine plantation estate in the water catchment and the resulting need to explore the relative economic benefits of revegetating the catchment with exotic plantations or native vegetation. The current mean fire interval in the ACT is approximately 40 years, making the establishment of a pine plantation economically marginal at a 4% discount rate. However, the relative impact on water yield of revegetation with native species and pines is very uncertain, as is the risk of fire under climate change. We use info-gap decision theory to account for these nonprobabilistic sources of uncertainty, demonstrating that the decision that is most robust to uncertainty is highly sensitive to the cost of native revegetation. If costs of native revegetation are sufficiently small, this option is more robust to uncertainty than revegetation with a commercial pine plantation.

Info-gap decision theory for assessing the management of catchments for timber production and urban water supply.

PubMed

McCarthy, Michael A; Lindenmayer, David B

2007-04-01

While previous studies have examined how forest management is influenced by the risk of fire, they rely on probabilistic estimates of the occurrence and impacts of fire. However, nonprobabilistic approaches are required for assessing the importance of fire risk when data are poor but risks are appreciable. We explore impacts of fire risk on forest management using as a case study a water catchment in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) (southeastern Australia). In this forested area, urban water supply and timber yields from exotic plantations are potential joint but also competing land uses. Our analyses were stimulated by extensive wildfires in early 2003 that burned much of the existing exotic pine plantation estate in the water catchment and the resulting need to explore the relative economic benefits of revegetating the catchment with exotic plantations or native vegetation. The current mean fire interval in the ACT is approximately 40 years, making the establishment of a pine plantation economically marginal at a 4% discount rate. However, the relative impact on water yield of revegetation with native species and pines is very uncertain, as is the risk of fire under climate change. We use info-gap decision theory to account for these nonprobabilistic sources of uncertainty, demonstrating that the decision that is most robust to uncertainty is highly sensitive to the cost of native revegetation. If costs of native revegetation are sufficiently small, this option is more robust to uncertainty than revegetation with a commercial pine plantation.

Survival Mediterranean Style: Lifestyle Changes to Improve the Health of the US Fire Service

PubMed Central

Korre, Maria; Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Kales, Stefanos N.

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes almost half of all on-duty deaths in US firefighters and is an important and costly cause of morbidity. In addition, cancer is a growing health concern in this population. Obesity and obesity-associated, cardiometabolic risk clustering are major, modifiable risk factors for fire service CVD and cancer risk. The Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) is proven effective in primary and secondary CVD prevention. It is also associated with a decreased risk of cancer and other chronic diseases. Moreover, it can be adapted into successful workplace interventions. Emerging data from our group regarding the US Fire Service show that greater compliance with the MedDiet is associated with improved CVD risk profiles and less weight gain among career firefighters. Moreover, the fact that career firefighters take a considerable number of meals communally on the job also represents an excellent opportunity for a workplace Mediterranean Diet Nutritional Intervention (MDNI). The devastating effects of obesity, CVD, and cancer on the US fire service are recognized, but currently few effective preventive programs exist. The consistently positive health benefits from following a MedDiet and promising preliminary data in the fire service justify translational research to determine the most effective means of delivering MDNIs to US firefighters. Therefore, a high priority should be assigned to efforts, which can help further disseminate and implement our program of novel behavior change strategies, “Survival Mediterranean Style,” throughout the US fire service and eventually to other occupations. PMID:29326915

Survival Mediterranean Style: Lifestyle Changes to Improve the Health of the US Fire Service.

PubMed

Korre, Maria; Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Kales, Stefanos N

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes almost half of all on-duty deaths in US firefighters and is an important and costly cause of morbidity. In addition, cancer is a growing health concern in this population. Obesity and obesity-associated, cardiometabolic risk clustering are major, modifiable risk factors for fire service CVD and cancer risk. The Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) is proven effective in primary and secondary CVD prevention. It is also associated with a decreased risk of cancer and other chronic diseases. Moreover, it can be adapted into successful workplace interventions. Emerging data from our group regarding the US Fire Service show that greater compliance with the MedDiet is associated with improved CVD risk profiles and less weight gain among career firefighters. Moreover, the fact that career firefighters take a considerable number of meals communally on the job also represents an excellent opportunity for a workplace Mediterranean Diet Nutritional Intervention (MDNI). The devastating effects of obesity, CVD, and cancer on the US fire service are recognized, but currently few effective preventive programs exist. The consistently positive health benefits from following a MedDiet and promising preliminary data in the fire service justify translational research to determine the most effective means of delivering MDNIs to US firefighters. Therefore, a high priority should be assigned to efforts, which can help further disseminate and implement our program of novel behavior change strategies, "Survival Mediterranean Style," throughout the US fire service and eventually to other occupations.

Fire and the endangered Indiana bat

Treesearch

Matthew B. Dickinson; Michael J. Lacki; Daniel R. Cox

2009-01-01

Fire and Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) have coexisted for millennia in the central hardwoods region, yet past declines in populations of this endangered species, and the imperative of fire use in oak silviculture and ecosystem conservation, call for an analysis of both the risks and opportunities associated with using fires on landscapes in...

36 CFR 294.21 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...) Has a geographic feature that aids in creating an effective fire break, such as a road or a ridge top; or (3) Is in condition class 3 as defined by HFRA. Fire hazard and risk: The fuel conditions on the landscape. Fire occurrence: The probability of wildfire ignition based on historic fire occurrence records...

36 CFR 294.21 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...) Has a geographic feature that aids in creating an effective fire break, such as a road or a ridge top; or (3) Is in condition class 3 as defined by HFRA. Fire hazard and risk: The fuel conditions on the landscape. Fire occurrence: The probability of wildfire ignition based on historic fire occurrence records...

36 CFR 294.21 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...) Has a geographic feature that aids in creating an effective fire break, such as a road or a ridge top; or (3) Is in condition class 3 as defined by HFRA. Fire hazard and risk: The fuel conditions on the landscape. Fire occurrence: The probability of wildfire ignition based on historic fire occurrence records...

Risk of commercial truck fires in the United States : an exploratory data analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-06-29

Large trucks are involved in only 8 percent of fatal crashes per year, but 17 percent of fatal fires. The scope of the current body of research is limited. Studies have treated truck fires generally as a subset of vehicle fires or in their own right ...

Risk and Protective Factors for Fires, Burns, and Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in U.S. Households

PubMed Central

Runyan, Carol W.; Johnson, Renee M.; Yang, Jingzhen; Waller, Anna E.; Perkis, David; Marshall, Stephen W.; Coyne-Beasley, Tamera; McGee, Kara S.

2011-01-01

Background More needs to be known about the prevalence of risk and protective factors for fires, burns, and carbon monoxide poisoning in U.S. households. Methods A random-digit-dial survey was conducted about home safety with 1003 respondents representing households in the continental United States. Descriptive statistics assess the prevalence of risk and protective factors for fires, burns, and carbon monoxide overall, and by demographic characteristics, household structure, region, and residential tenure. The data were weighted to adjust for nonresponse and to reflect the U.S. population. Results Although most respondents reported having a smoke alarm (97%), and 80% reported having one on each level of their home, <20% reported checking the alarm at least every 3 months. Seventy-one percent reported having a fire extinguisher, 29% had a carbon monoxide detector, and 51% of those living with at least one other person had a fire escape plan. Few could report the temperature of their hot water at the tap (9%), or the setting on the hot water heater (25%). Only 6% had an antiscald device. Conclusions Results suggest that there is much room for improvement regarding adoption of measures to prevent fires, burns, and carbon monoxide poisoning. Further investigations of the efficacy of carbon monoxide detectors, fire extinguishers, and escape plans, as well as effectiveness studies of fire and burn-prevention efforts are needed. PMID:15626564

Risk and protective factors for fires, burns, and carbon monoxide poisoning in U.S. households.

PubMed

Runyan, Carol W; Johnson, Renee M; Yang, Jingzhen; Waller, Anna E; Perkis, David; Marshall, Stephen W; Coyne-Beasley, Tamera; McGee, Kara S

2005-01-01

More needs to be known about the prevalence of risk and protective factors for fires, burns, and carbon monoxide poisoning in U.S. households. A random-digit-dial survey was conducted about home safety with 1003 respondents representing households in the continental United States. Descriptive statistics assess the prevalence of risk and protective factors for fires, burns, and carbon monoxide overall, and by demographic characteristics, household structure, region, and residential tenure. The data were weighted to adjust for nonresponse and to reflect the U.S. population. Although most respondents reported having a smoke alarm (97%), and 80% reported having one on each level of their home, <20% reported checking the alarm at least every 3 months. Seventy-one percent reported having a fire extinguisher, 29% had a carbon monoxide detector, and 51% of those living with at least one other person had a fire escape plan. Few could report the temperature of their hot water at the tap (9%), or the setting on the hot water heater (25%). Only 6% had an antiscald device. Results suggest that there is much room for improvement regarding adoption of measures to prevent fires, burns, and carbon monoxide poisoning. Further investigations of the efficacy of carbon monoxide detectors, fire extinguishers, and escape plans, as well as effectiveness studies of fire and burn-prevention efforts are needed.

Foam as a Fire Suppressant: An Evaluation

Treesearch

Paul Schlobohm; Ron Rochna

1987-01-01

The ability of fire suppressant foams to improve ground-applied fire control efforts was evaluated. Foaming agents and foam-generating systems were examined. Performance evaluations were made for direct attack, indirect attack, and mop-up. Foam was determined to suppress and repel fire in situations where water did not. Cost comparisons of mop-up work showed straight...

Risk terminology primer: Basic principles and a glossary for the wildland fire management community

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Tom Zimmerman; Dan Mindar; Mary Taber

2016-01-01

Risk management is being increasingly promoted as an appropriate method for addressing wildland fire management challenges. However, a lack of a common understanding of risk concepts and terminology is hindering effective application. In response, this General Technical Report provides a set of clear, consistent, understandable, and usable definitions for terms...

Quantification of Risk for USAF Fire and Emergency Services Flights as a Result of Shortages in Manpower

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

likelihood), which made DA a very effective technique in quantifying risk . Clemen and Reilly (2001) defined a specific process in DA shown on... quantifying risk as a function of time. Four experiments were conducted with different size fire crews and the time to complete each scenario was

Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

Treesearch

Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2015-01-01

Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

Earth, wind, and fire: Wildfire risk perceptions in a hurricane-prone environment

Treesearch

Soren M. Newman; Matthew S. Carroll; Pamela J. Jakes; Daniel R. Williams; Lorie L. Higgins

2014-01-01

Wildfire is one of several potential disturbances that could have extraordinary impacts on individuals and communities in fire-prone areas. In this article we describe disturbance risk perceptions from interviews with residents in three Florida communities that face significant wildfire and hurricane risk. Although they live in areas characterized by emergency managers...

Distribution and landscape controls of organic layer thickness and carbon within the Alaskan Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pastick, Neal J.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Rose, Joshua R.; Johnson, Kristofer D.; Ji, Lei

2014-01-01

Understanding of the organic layer thickness (OLT) and organic layer carbon (OLC) stocks in subarctic ecosystems is critical due to their importance in the global carbon cycle. Moreover, post-fire OLT provides an indicator of long-term successional trajectories and permafrost susceptibility to thaw. To these ends, we 1) mapped OLT and associated uncertainty at 30 m resolution in the Yukon River Basin (YRB), Alaska, employing decision tree models linking remotely sensed imagery with field and ancillary data, 2) converted OLT to OLC using a non-linear regression, 3) evaluate landscape controls on OLT and OLC, and 4) quantified the post-fire recovery of OLT and OLC. Areas of shallow (2 = 0.68; OLC: R2 = 0.66), where an average of 16 cm OLT and 5.3 kg/m2 OLC were consumed by fires. Strong predictors of OLT included climate, topography, near-surface permafrost distributions, soil wetness, and spectral information. Our modeling approach enabled us to produce regional maps of OLT and OLC, which will be useful in understanding risks and feedbacks associated with fires and climate feedbacks.

An analysis of shoot and scoot tactics

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

firing multiple shots in the same location is preferable to moving immediately after firing one shot . Moving frequently reduces risk to artillery, but...preferable to moving immediately after firing one shot . Moving frequently reduces risk to artillery, but limits the artillery’s ability to inflict damage... study here. Thanks to his mistake (it might not be), I have completed a very tough matrix of 71 credits (56 grad level credits) in only one year. I

Surgical fires: perioperative communication is essential to prevent this rare but devastating complication.

PubMed

Bruley, M E

2004-12-01

A fire on or within a surgical patient is a continuing risk in modern surgery. Unfortunately, the sensitivity of surgical and anaesthesia staff to this hazard has waned over the past 25 years with cessation of the use of flammable anaesthetic agents. Prevention of surgical fires requires understanding the risks and effective communication between surgical, anaesthesia, and operating nursing staffs. Preventive measures exist but have yet to diffuse sufficiently across professional boundaries. Based on a review of relevant databases, decades of experience from field investigations, and a review of the medical literature, this paper discusses the incidence of surgical fires, the responsibility for prevention in the perioperative setting, and the procedures for surgical fire prevention and extinguishment.

Surgical fires: perioperative communication is essential to prevent this rare but devastating complication

PubMed Central

Bruley, M

2004-01-01



 A fire on or within a surgical patient is a continuing risk in modern surgery. Unfortunately, the sensitivity of surgical and anaesthesia staff to this hazard has waned over the past 25 years with cessation of the use of flammable anaesthetic agents. Prevention of surgical fires requires understanding the risks and effective communication between surgical, anaesthesia, and operating nursing staffs. Preventive measures exist but have yet to diffuse sufficiently across professional boundaries. Based on a review of relevant databases, decades of experience from field investigations, and a review of the medical literature, this paper discusses the incidence of surgical fires, the responsibility for prevention in the perioperative setting, and the procedures for surgical fire prevention and extinguishment. PMID:15576710

Underground Coal-Fires in Xinjiang, China: A Continued Effort in Applying Geophysics to Solve a Local Problem and to Mitigate a Global Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuttke, M. W.; Halisch, M.; Tanner, D. C.; Cai, Z. Y.; Zeng, Q.; Wang, C.

2012-04-01

Spontaneous uncontrolled coal seam fires are a well known phenomenon that causes severe environmental problems and severe impact on natural coal reserves. Coal fires are a worldwide phenomenon, but in particular in Xinjiang, that covers 17.3 % of Chinas area and hosts approx 42 % of its coal resources. In Xinjiang since more than 50 years a rigorous strategy for fire fighting on local and regional scale is persued. The Xinjiang Coalfield Fire Fighting Bureau (FFB) has developed technologies and methods to deal with any known fire. Many fires have been extinguished already, but the problem is still there if not even growing. This problem is not only a problem for China due to the loss of valuable energy resources, but it is also a worldwide threat because of the generation of substantial amounts of greenhouse gases. Through the FFB, China is struggling to overcome this, but the activities could be much enhanced by the continuation of the already successful conjoint operations. The last ten years have seen two successful cooperative projects between China and Germany on the field of coal-fire fighting, namely the German Technical Cooperation Project on Coal Fire in Xinjiang and the Sino-German Coal Fire Research Initiative funded by the corresponding ministeries of both countries. A persistent task in the fire fighting is the identification and supervision of areas with higher risks for the ignition of coal fires, the exploration of already ignited fire zones to extinguish the fires and the monitoring of extinguished fires to detect as early as possible process that may foster re-ignition. This can be achieved by modeling both the structures and the processes that are involved. This has also been a promising part of the past cooperation projects, yet to be transformed into a standard application of fire fighting procedures. In this contribution we describe the plans for a new conjoint project between China and Germany where on the basis of field investigations and laboratory measurements realistic dynamical models of fire-zones are constructed to increase the understanding of particular coal-fires, to interpret the surface signatures of the coal-fire in terms of location and propagation and to estimate the output of hazardous exhaust products to evaluate the economic benefit of fire extinction.

Introduction to fire danger rating and remote sensing - Will remote sensing enhance wildland fire danger prediction?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allgöwer, Britta; Carlson, J.D.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Chuvieco, Emilio

2003-01-01

While ‘Fire Danger’ per se cannot be measured, the physical properties of the biotic and abiotic world that relate to fire occurrence and fire behavior can. Today, increasingly sophisticated Remote Sensing methods are being developed to more accurately detect fuel properties such as species composition (fuel types), vegetation structure or plant water content - to name a few. Based on meteorological input data and physical, semi-physical or empirical model calculations, Wildland Fire Danger Rating Systems provide ‘indirect values’ - numerical indices - at different temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) denoting the physical conditions that may lead to fire ignition and support fire propagation. The results can be expressed as fire danger levels, ranging from ‘low’ to ‘very high’, and are commonly used in operational wildland fire management (e.g., the Canadian Fire Weather Index [FWI] System, the Russian Nesterov Index, or the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System [NFDRS]). Today, fire danger levels are often turned into broad scale maps with the help of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) showing the areas with the different fire danger levels, and are distributed via the World Wide Web.In this chapter we will outline some key issues dealing with Remote Sensing and GIS techniques that are covered in the following chapters, and elaborate how the Fire Danger Rating concepts could be integrated into a framework that enables comprehensive and sustainable wildland fire risk assessment. To do so, we will first raise some general thoughts about wildland fires and suggest how to approach this extremely complex phenomenon. Second, we will outline a possible fire risk analysis framework and third we will give a short overview on existing Fire Danger Rating Systems and the principles behind them.

Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

2013-12-01

Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience strong upslope shifting of open grassland, chaparral and hardwood types, which may be initiated by increased fire frequencies, particularly where fires have not recently burned within normal fire recurrence interval departures (FRID). An evaluation of four fire management strategies (business as usual; resist change; foster orderly change; protect vital resources) across four combinations of future climate and fire frequency found that no single management strategy was uniformly successful in protecting critical resources across the range of future conditions examined. This limitation is somewhat driven by current management constraints on the amount of management available to resource managers, which suggests management will need to use a triage approach to application of proactive fire management strategies, wherein MOC landscape projections can be used in decision support.

Living with fire: How social scientists are helping wildland-urban interface communities reduce wildfire risk

Treesearch

Brian Cooke; Daniel Williams; Travis Paveglio; Matthew Carroll

2016-01-01

Reducing wildfire risk to lives and property is a critical issue for policy makers, land managers, and citizens who reside in high-risk fire areas of the United States - this is especially the case in the Rocky Mountain region and other western states. In order for a wildfire risk reduction effort to be effective in a U.S. wildland-urban interface (WUI)...

Does fire severity influence shrub resprouting after spring prescribed burning?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, Cristina; Vega, José A.; Fonturbel, Teresa

2013-04-01

Prescribed burning is commonly used to reduce the risk of severe wildfire. However, further information about the associated environmental effects is required to help forest managers select the most appropriate treatment. To address this question, we evaluated if fire severity during spring prescribed burning significantly affects the resprouting ability of two common shrub species in shrubland under a Mediterranean climate in NW Spain. Fire behaviour and temperatures were recorded in tagged individuals of Erica australis and Pterospartum tridentatum during prescribed burning. The number and length of resprouted shoots were measured three times (6, 12 and 18 months) after the prescribed burning. The influence of a series of fire severity indicators on some plant resprouting vigour parameters was tested by canonical correlation analysis. Six months and one year after prescribed burning, soil burn severity (measured by the absolute reduction in depth of the organic soil layer, maximum temperatures in the organic soil layer and the mineral soil surface during burning and the post-fire depth of the organic soil layer) reduced the resprouting vigour of E. australis and P. tridentatum. In contrast, direct measurements of fire effects on plants (minimum branch diameter, duration of temperatures above 300 °C in the shrub crown and fireline intensity) did not affect the post-fire plant vigour. Soil burn severity during spring prescribed burning significantly affected the short-term resprouting vigour in a mixed heathland in Galicia. The lack of effects eighteen months after prescribed burning indicates the high resilience of these species and illustrates the need to conciliate fire prevention and conservation goals.

Exposure assessment through realistic laboratory simulation of a soccer stadium fire.

PubMed

van Belle, N J C; van Putten, E M; de Groot, A C; Meeussen, V J A; Banus, S

2010-10-01

On Sunday April 13, 2008 a fire broke out on a grandstand in the Euroborg soccer stadium in Groningen The Netherlands. The polyamide chairs on the grandstand were set on fire and supporters were exposed to the emitted smoke which induced mild health effects. The Dutch government was concerned about potential health risks that such fires could have to exposed fans. Especially the exposure to toxic fumes was considered a risk because prior research has proven that large amounts of chemical compounds are emitted during the burning of chemical substances such as polyamide. Among these emitted compounds are HCN, CO, NO(x), NH(3) and volatile organic compounds. To study if supporters were exposed to hazardous chemical compounds we designed a laboratory controlled replica of a part of the grandstand of the Euroborg stadium to perform fire-experiments. This simulation of the fire under controlled circumstances proved that a wide variety of chemicals were emitted. Especially the emission of CO and NO(x) were high, but also the emission of formaldehyde might be toxicologically relevant. The emission of HCN and NH(3) were less than expected. Exposure assessment suggests that the exposure to NO(x) is the main health risk for the supporters that were present at the Euroborg fire. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating impacts of fire management strategies on native and invasive plants using an individual-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangur, Alexander N.; Fill, Jennifer M.; Northfield, Tobin D.; van de Wiel, Marco

2017-04-01

The capacity for species to coexist and potentially exclude one another can broadly be attributed to drivers that influence fitness differences (such as competitive ability) and niche differences (such as environmental change). These drivers, and thus the determinants of coexistence they influence, can interact and fluctuate both spatially and temporally. Understanding the spatiotemporal variation in niche and fitness differences in systems prone to fluctuating drivers, such as fire, can help to inform the management of invasive species. In the Cape floristic region of South Africa, invasive Pinus pinaster seedlings are strong competitors in the post-burn environment of the fire-driven Fynbos vegetation. In this, system native Protea spp. are especially vulnerable to unseasonal burns, but seasonal prescribed (Summer) burns are thought to present a high safety risk. Together, these issues have limited the appeal of prescribed burn management as an alternative to costly manual eradication of P. pinaster. Using a spatially-explicit field-of-neighbourhood individual-based model, we represent the drivers of spatiotemporal variation in niche differences (driven by fire regimes) and fitness differences (driven by competitive ability). In doing so, we evaluate optimal fire management strategies to a) control invasive P. pinaster in the Cape floristic region of South Africa, while b) minimizing deleterious effects of management on native Protea spp. The scarcity of appropriate data for model calibration has been problematic for models in invasion biology, but we use recent advances in Approximate Bayesian Computing techniques to overcome this limitation. We present early conclusions on the viability of prescribed burn management to control P. pinaster in South Africa.

More stapler firings increase the risk of perioperative morbidity after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy

PubMed Central

Major, Piotr; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Pisarska, Magdalena; Małczak, Piotr; Wierdak, Mateusz; Dembiński, Marcin; Migaczewski, Marcin; Rubinkiewicz, Mateusz; Budzyński, Andrzej

2017-01-01

Introduction Staple-line bleeding and leakage are the most common serious complications of laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. The relationship between multiple stapler firings and higher risk of postoperative complications is well defined in colorectal surgery but has not been addressed in bariatric procedures so far. Identification of new factors such as “the numbers of stapler firings used during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG)” as a predictor for complications can lead to optimization of the patient care at bariatric centers. Aim To determine the association between perioperative morbidity and the number of stapler firings during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. Material and methods This observational study was based on retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in patients operated on for morbid obesity in a teaching hospital/tertiary referral center for general surgery. The patients who underwent LSG were analyzed in terms of the number of stapler firings used as a new potential risk predictor for postoperative complications after surgery, adjusting for other patient- and treatment-related factors. The study included 333 patients (209 women, 124 men, mean age: 40 ±11). Results During the first 30 days after surgery, complications were observed in 18 (5.41%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that prolonging operative time increased morbidity (every minute, OR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00–1.02) and the complication rate increased with the number of stapler firings (every firing, OR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.09–3.33; p = 0.023). Conclusions Additional stapler firings above the usual number and a prolonged operation should alert a surgeon and the whole team about increased risk of postoperative complications. PMID:29643964

Fire Prevention in California's Riverside County Headstart Project: An Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Folkman, William S.; Taylor, Jean

Results of evaluation are reported for a safety program devised by Head Start teachers and California Division of Forestry personnel to teach fire prevention education to Head Start children. Chapters describe the place of fire prevention in Head Start and causes of fire starting behavior in children. The Head Start Fire Prevention Kit is also…

RCRA Facility Investigation/Remedial Investigation Report with Baseline Risk Assessment for the Fire Department Hose Training Facility (904-113G)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmer, E.

1997-04-01

This report documents the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation/Remedial Investigation/Baseline Risk Assessment (RFI/RI/BRA) for the Fire Department Hose Training Facility (FDTF) (904-113G).

Mapping wildland fuels and forest structure for land management: a comparison of nearest neighbor imputation and other methods

Treesearch

Kenneth B. Pierce; Janet L. Ohmann; Michael C. Wimberly; Matthew J. Gregory; Jeremy S. Fried

2009-01-01

Land managers need consistent information about the geographic distribution of wildland fuels and forest structure over large areas to evaluate fire risk and plan fuel treatments. We compared spatial predictions for 12 fuel and forest structure variables across three regions in the western United States using gradient nearest neighbor (GNN) imputation, linear models (...

Science You Can Use Bulletin: Wildfire triage: Targeting mitigation based on social, economic, and ecological values

Treesearch

Karl Malcolm; Matthew Thompson; Dave Calkin; Mark Finney; Alan Ager

2012-01-01

Evaluating the risks of wildfire relative to the valuable resources found in any managed landscape requires an interdisciplinary approach. Researchers at the Rocky Mountain Research Station and Western Wildland Threat Assessment Center developed such a process, using a combination of techniques rooted in fire modeling and ecology, economics, decision sciences, and the...

A new process for organizing assessments of social, economic, and environmental outcomes: case study of wildland fire management in the USA

Treesearch

Randall JF Bruins; Wayne R Jr. Munns; Stephen J Botti; Steve Brink; David Cleland; Larry Kapustka; Danny Lee; al. et

2010-01-01

Ecological risk assessments typically are organized using the processes of planning (a discussion among managers, stakeholders, and analysts to clarify ecosystem management goals and assessment scope) and problem formulation (evaluation of existing information to generate hypotheses about adverse ecological effects, select assessment endpoints, and develop an analysis...

Risk factors for rural residential fires.

PubMed

Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen; Zwerling, Craig

2007-01-01

Rural households report high fire-related mortality and injury rates, but few studies have examined the risk factors for fires. This study aims to identify occupant and household characteristics that are associated with residential fires in a rural cohort. Of 1,005 households contacted in a single rural county, 691 (68.8%) agreed to participate. One household with missing information on a reported fire was excluded from the analysis. We used logistic regression to examine the independent association of occupant and household characteristics with reported fires, controlling for years lived in the residence. We also examined the association between the occurrence of previous fires and the adoption of safety measures. A total of 78 (11.3%) households reported a residential fire. Occupant characteristics that were associated with significantly higher odds of reported fires included the presence of an occupant with alcohol problems (OR = 1.82, 95% CI = 1.01-3.28) and being married (OR = 2.11, 95% CI = 1.14-3.91). Rural farm households were associated with significantly higher odds (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.01-2.93) of reporting a fire when compared to residences in towns, after controlling for all other occupant and household characteristics. The presence of a fire extinguisher (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.10-3.64) was the only fire safety measure that had a statistically significant association with reported fire. Rural farm households report higher incidences of fire when compared to households located in towns. Experiencing a fire is not associated with an increased likelihood of adopting safety measures to prevent injuries once a fire has started.

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2016-01-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996-2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

The Spacecraft Fire Experiment (Saffire) - Objectives, Development and Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoren, William; Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David L.

2016-01-01

Since 2012, the Spacecraft Fire Experiment (Saffire) has been under development by the Spacecraft Fire Safety Demonstration (SFS Demo) project that is funded by NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Division in the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The overall objective of this project is to reduce the uncertainty and risk associated with the design of spacecraft fire safety systems for NASA's exploration missions. This is accomplished by defining, developing, and conducting experiments that address gaps in spacecraft fire safety knowledge and capabilities identified by NASA's Fire Safety System Maturation Team. This paper describes the three Spacecraft Fire Experiments (Saffire-I, -II, and -III) that were developed at NASA-GRC and that will conduct a series of material flammability tests in low-gravity and at length scales that are realistic for a spacecraft fire. The experiments will be conducted in Orbital ATK's Cygnus vehicle after it has unberthed from the International Space Station. The tests will be fully automated with the data downlinked at the conclusion of the test and before the Cygnus vehicle reenters the atmosphere. The objectives of these experiments are to (1) determine how rapidly a large scale fire grows in low-gravity and (2) investigate the low-g flammability limits compared to those obtained in NASA's normal gravity material flammability screening test. The hardware for these experiments has been completed and is awaiting their respective launches, all planned for 2016. This paper will review the objectives of these experiments and how they address several of the knowledge gaps for NASA's exploration missions. The hardware development will be discussed including several novel approaches that were taken for testing and evaluation of these series payloads. The status of the missions and operational status will also be presented.

Growing season burns for control of hardwoods in longleaf pine stands

Treesearch

William D. Boyer

1990-01-01

Summer fires in existing longleaf pine stands carry undue risk of pine mortality. One summer fire caused as much mortality among pines in the l- through 4-inch d.b.h. classes as two successive summer fires among hardwoods of the same size. Mortality among mature pines was also excessive. Hardwood top-kill following a spring fire seemed affected more by fire intensity...

Effects of prescribed fire on fuels, vegetation, and Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) demographics in Texas juniper-oak woodlands

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Reidy; Frank R., III Thompson; Carl Schwope; Scott Rowin; James M. Mueller

2016-01-01

The Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is an endangered songbird that breeds in mature juniper-oak woodlands restricted to Central Texas. This habitat is increasingly susceptible to crown fire due to climate change, land use change, and fire suppression. Prescribed fire is a potential tool to reduce the risk of crown fire and may be a...

Joint modeling of human dwellings and the natural ecosystem at the wildland-urban interface helps mitigation of forest-fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, M.; Spyratos, V.; Bourgeron, P. S.

2007-12-01

The late summer of 2007 has seen again a large number of catastrophic forest fires in the Western United States and Southern Europe. These fires arose in or spread to human habitats at the so-called wildland-urban interface (WUI). Within the conterminous United States alone, the WUI occupies just under 10 percent of the surface and contains almost 40 percent of all housing units. Recent dry spells associated with climate variability and climate change make the impact of such catastrophic fires a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists and the general public. In order to explore the qualitative influence of the presence of houses on fire spread, we considered only uniform landscapes and fire spread as a simple percolation process, with given house densities d and vegetation flammabilities p. Wind, topography, fuel heterogeneities, firebrands and weather affect actual fire spread. The present theoretical results would therefore, need to be integrated into more detailed fire models before practical, quantitative applications of the present results. Our simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, shows that fire-size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density d and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability p and house density d. The sharpness of this transition is related to the critical thresholds that arise in percolation theory for an infinite domain; it is their translation into our model's finite-area domain, which is a more realistic representation of actual fire landscapes. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition zone. Hence, and despite having neglected additional complexities, our idealized model's results indicate that more detailed models used for assessing fire risk in the WUI should integrate the density and flammability of houses in these areas. Furthermore, our results imply that fire proofing houses and their immediate surroundings within the WUI would not only reduce the houses' flammability and increase the security of the inhabitants, but also reduce fire risk for the entire landscape.

Human influence on California fire regimes.

PubMed

Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C; Keeley, Jon E; Hawbaker, Todd J; Clayton, Murray K; Stewart, Susan I; Hammer, Roger B

2007-07-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.

Human influence on California fire regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, A.D.; Radeloff, V.C.; Keeley, J.E.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Clayton, M.K.; Stewart, S.I.; Hammer, R.B.

2007-01-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Fire Safety for the Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeon and Surgical Staff.

PubMed

Di Pasquale, LisaMarie; Ferneini, Elie M

2017-05-01

Fire in the operating room is a life-threatening emergency that demands quick, efficient intervention. Because the circumstances surrounding fires are generally well-understood, virtually every operating room fire is preventable. Before every operating room case, thorough preprocedure "time outs" should address each team members' awareness of specific fire risks and agreement regarding fire concerns and emergency actions. Fire prevention centers on 3 constituent parts of the fire triad necessary for fire formation. Regular fire drills should guide policies and procedures to prevent surgical fires. Delivering optimal patient care in emergent situations requires surgical team training, practicing emergency roles, and specific actions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric mercury concentrations emitted from a coal-fired power plant in Mexico.

PubMed

García, Gilberto Fuentes; Álvarez, Humberto Bravo; Echeverría, Rodolfo Sosa; de Alba, Sergio Rosas; Rueda, Víctor Magaña; Dosantos, Ernesto Caetano; Cruz, Gustavo Vázquez

2017-09-01

Atmospheric mercury in the environment as a result of the consumption of fossil fuels, such as coal used in electricity generation, has gained increased attention worldwide because of its toxicity, atmospheric persistence, and bioaccumulation. Determining or predicting the concentration of this pollutant in ambient air is essential for determining sensitive areas requiring health protection. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variability of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) concentrations and its dry deposition surrounding the Presidente Plutarco Elías Calles (CETEPEC) coal-fired power plant, located on Mexico's Pacific coast. The CALPUFF dispersion model was applied on the basis of the daily consumption of coal during 2013 for each generating unit in the power plant and considering the local scale. The established 300-ng/m 3 annual average risk factor considered by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (U.S. DHHS) and Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) must not be exceeded to meet satisfactory air quality levels. An area of 65 × 60 km was evaluated, and the results show that the risk level for mercury vapor was not exceeded because the annual average concentration was 2.8 ng/m 3 . Although the predicted risk level was not exceeded, continuous monitoring studies of GEM and of particulates in the atmosphere, soil, and water may be necessary to identify the concentration of this pollutant, specifically that resulting from coal-fired power plants operated in environmental areas of interest in Mexico. The dry mercury deposition was low in the study area; according to the CALPUFF model, the annual average was 1.40E-2 ng/m 2 /sec. These results represent a starting point for Mexico's government to implement the Minamata Convention on Mercury, which Mexico signed in 2013. The obtained concentrations of mercury from a bigger coal-fired plant in Mexico, through the application of the CALPUFF dispersion model by the mercury emissions, are below the level recommended according to the US Department of Health and Human Services and Integrated Risk Information System. These results provide evidence of important progress in the planning and installation to the future of monitoring mercury stations in the area of interest.

Fires, storms, and water supplies: a case of compound extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, G. J.; Nyman, P.; Langhans, C.; Jones, O.; Lane, P. N.

2013-12-01

Intense rainfall events following fire can wash sediment and ash into streams and reservoirs, contaminating water supplies for cities and towns. Post fire flooding and debris flows damage infrastructure and endanger life. These kinds of risks which are associated with a combination of two or more events (which may or may not be extreme when occurring independently) are an example of what the IPCC recently referred to as ';compound extremes'. Detailed models exist for modeling fire and erosion events separately, however there have been few attempts to integrate these models so as to estimate the water quality and infrastructure risks associated with combined fire and rainfall regimes. This presentation will articulate the issues associated with modeling the compound effects of fire and subsequent rainfall events on erosion, debris flows and water quality, and will describe and contrast several new approaches to modeling this problem developed and applied to SE Australian fire prone landscapes under the influence of climate change.

Contribution of Earth Observation and meteorological datasets for the design and development of a national fire risk assessment system (NFOFRAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katagis, Thomas; Bliziotis, Dimitris; Liantinioti, Chrysa; Gitas, Ioannis Z.; Charalampopoulou, Betty

2016-08-01

During the past decades, forest fires have increased both in frequency and severity thus, increasing the life threats for people and environment and leading countries to spend vast amounts of resources in fighting forest fires. Besides anthropogenic activities, climatic and environmental changes are considered as driving factors affecting fire occurrence and vegetation succession. Especially in the Mediterranean region, the development and existence of effective tools and services is crucial for assisting pre-fire planning and preparedness. The collaborative project NFOFRAS aims at introducing an innovative and effective system for rating forest fire risk, and is based on existing technology and standards that have been developed by countries with a long and a very successful involvement in this field. During the first phase of the project a detailed documentation of the proposed methodology was composed. In addition, Earth Observation (EO) and meteorological datasets were utilized for producing accurate pre-fire measurements over a selected study area in Greece.

Acute health effects among firefighters exposed to a polyvinyl chloride (PVC) fire

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Markowitz, J.S.; Gutterman, E.M.; Schwartz, S.

1989-05-01

Firefighters are frequently being called on to fight fires that are chemical in nature. In the aftermath of a chemical fire in Plainfield, New Jersey on March 20-21, 1985, the authors conducted a retrospective cohort study which surveyed 80 firefighters exposed to burning polyvinyl chloride (PVC) as well as 15 nonexposed firefighter subjects. By means of an 81-item symptom checklist, exposed firefighters reported more frequent and severe symptoms at 5-6 weeks post incident. This was true for a total symptomatology score as well as 19 individual items. Some of the items with an elevated risk were consistent with exposure tomore » hydrogen chloride, the main pyrolysis product of polyvinyl chloride. Other items with an elevated risk appeared to be related to smoke inhalation while others seemed psychosocial in nature. Analyses conducted within the exposed firefighter group showed that fighting the fire the first day, being a truckman, and residence within 1 mile (1.6 km) of the firehouse were significant risk factors for high total symptom scores. These risk factors may have been associated with level or duration of exposure to the toxic substances produced during the fire.« less

Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Saffron J.; Handmer, John

2012-03-01

The 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia’s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (‘Stay or Go’), plus an examination of the Commission’s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved.

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projectedmore » costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.« less

Perceptions of Wildfire Threat and Mitigation Measures by Residents of Fire-Prone Communities in the Northeast: Survey Results and Wildland Fire Management Implications

Treesearch

Robert L. Ryan; Mark B. Wamsley

2006-01-01

We surveyed residents of fire-prone areas of the Central Pine Barrens of Long Island, New York, and the Plymouth Pine Barrens in Massachusetts to learn how they perceived wildland fire risk and management techniques for reducing fire hazard. We found that residents considered the fire threat to their own property to be relatively low in spite of first-hand experience...

High-fire-risk behavior in critical fire areas

Treesearch

William S. Folkman

1977-01-01

Observations of fire-related behavior of wildland visitors were made in three types of areas-wilderness, established campground, and built-up commercial and residential areas-within the San Bernardino National Forest, California. Interviews were conducted with all persons so observed. Types of fire-related behavior differed markedly from one area to another, as did the...

Temporal changes to fire risk in dissimilar WUI communities

Treesearch

N. C. Leyshon; C. A. Dicus; D. B. Sapsis

2015-01-01

Despite increasing proportions of governmental budgets allocated to fire suppression resources, wildfires annually destroy great numbers of homes and critical infrastructure in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Since 2002, the largest fires in the histories of California, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Oregon, and Texas have occurred in spite of increased fire...

Developing the U.S. Wildland Fire Decision Support System

Treesearch

Erin Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman; Mark A. Finney; Tom Zimmerman; Robert C. Seli; Lisa M. Elenz; David E. Calkin; John R. Fiedler

2011-01-01

A new decision support tool, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) has been developed to support risk-informed decision-making for individual fires in the United States. WFDSS accesses national weather data and forecasts, fire behavior prediction, economic assessment, smoke management assessment, and landscape databases to efficiently formulate and apply...

Assessing wildland fire risk transmission to communities in northern Spain

Treesearch

Fermín J. Alcasena; Michele Salis; Alan A. Ager; Rafael Castell; Cristina Vega-García

2017-01-01

We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain). Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306) in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert...

The science of firescapes: Achieving fire-resilient communities

Treesearch

Alistair M. S. Smith; Crystal A. Kolden; Travis B. Paveglio; Mark A. Cochrane; David MJS Bowman; Max A. Moritz; Andrew D. Kliskey; Lilian Alessa; Andrew T. Hudak; Chad M. Hoffman; James A. Lutz; Lloyd P. Queen; Scott J. Goetz; Philip E. Higuera; Luigi Boschetti; Mike Flannigan; Kara M. Yedinak; Adam C. Watts; Eva K. Strand; Jan W. van Wagtendonk; John W. Anderson; Brian J. Stocks; John T. Abatzoglou

2016-01-01

Wildland fire management has reached a crossroads. Current perspectives are not capable of answering interdisciplinary adaptation and mitigation challenges posed by increases in wildfire risk to human populations and the need to reintegrate fire as a vital landscape process. Fire science has been, and continues to be, performed in isolated "silos," including...

Fire weather technology for fire agrometeorology operations

Treesearch

Francis Fujioka

2008-01-01

Even as the magnitude of wildfire problems increases globally, United Nations agencies are acting to mitigate the risk of wildfire disasters to members. Fire management organizations worldwide may vary considerably in operational scope, depending on the number and type of resources an organization manages. In any case, good fire weather information is vital. This paper...

Preventing deaths and injuries from house fires: a cost-benefit analysis of a community-based smoke alarm installation programme.

PubMed

Yellman, Merissa A; Peterson, Cora; McCoy, Mary A; Stephens-Stidham, Shelli; Caton, Emily; Barnard, Jeffrey J; Padgett, Ted O; Florence, Curtis; Istre, Gregory R

2018-02-01

Operation Installation (OI), a community-based smoke alarm installation programme in Dallas, Texas, targets houses in high-risk urban census tracts. Residents of houses that received OI installation (or programme houses) had 68% fewer medically treated house fire injuries (non-fatal and fatal) compared with residents of non-programme houses over an average of 5.2 years of follow-up during an effectiveness evaluation conducted from 2001 to 2011. To estimate the cost-benefit of OI. A mathematical model incorporated programme cost and effectiveness data as directly observed in OI. The estimated cost per smoke alarm installed was based on a retrospective analysis of OI expenditures from administrative records, 2006-2011. Injury incidence assumptions for a population that had the OI programme compared with the same population without the OI programme was based on the previous OI effectiveness study, 2001-2011. Unit costs for medical care and lost productivity associated with fire injuries were from a national public database. From a combined payers' perspective limited to direct programme and medical costs, the estimated incremental cost per fire injury averted through the OI installation programme was $128,800 (2013 US$). When a conservative estimate of lost productivity among victims was included, the incremental cost per fire injury averted was negative, suggesting long-term cost savings from the programme. The OI programme from 2001 to 2011 resulted in an estimated net savings of $3.8 million, or a $3.21 return on investment for every dollar spent on the programme using a societal cost perspective. Community smoke alarm installation programmes could be cost-beneficial in high-fire-risk neighbourhoods. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Assessing fire risk in the wildland-urban interface.

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; David T. Cleland; Roger B. Hammer; Volker B. Radeloff; T. Scott Rupp

2004-01-01

Identifying areas of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) that are prone to severe wildfire is an important step in prioritizing fire prevention and preparedness projects. Our objective is to determine at a regional scale the relative risk of severe wildfire in WUI areas and the numbers of people and houses in high-risk areas. For a study area in northern lower Michigan...

Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: Status and needs

Treesearch

Kevin Hyde; Matthew B. Dickinson; Gil Bohrer; David Calkin; Louisa Evers; Julie Gilbertson-Day; Tessa Nicolet; Kevin Ryan; Christina Tague

2013-01-01

Wildland fire management has moved beyond a singular focus on suppression, calling for wildfire management for ecological benefit where no critical human assets are at risk. Processes causing direct effects and indirect, long-term ecosystem changes are complex and multidimensional. Robust risk-assessment tools are required that account for highly variable effects on...

FireSmart®-ForestWise: Managing Wildlife and Wildfire Risk in the Wildland/Urban Interface-a Canadian Case Study

Treesearch

Alan Westhaver; Richard D. Revel; Brad C. Hawkes

2007-01-01

Reducing the risk of losses from wildfires that threaten homes and communities is a growing priority in Canada. To reduce risk, “FireSmart®” standards have been adopted nationwide for managing forest fuel. However, these standards largely disregard interests of wildlife and conservation of wildlife habitat – thus raising concerns...

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Avi Bar Massada; Volker C. Radeloff; Susan I. Stewart; Todd J. Hawbaker

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather...

Assessing fire risk in the wildland-urban interface

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; David T. Cleland; Roger B. Hammer; Volker C. Radeloff; T. Scott Rupp

2004-01-01

Identifying areas of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) that are prone to severe wildfire is an important step in prioritizing fire prevention and preparedness projects. Our objective is to determine at a regional scale the relative risk of severe wildfire in WUI areas and the numbers of people and houses in high-risk areas. For a study area in northern lower Michigan...

Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) user manual (version 2006.01.18)

Treesearch

Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Fredrick B. Pierson; David E. Hall; Corey A. Moffet; Louise E. Ashmun

2007-01-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective post-fire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. To aid in this assessment, the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed. This user manual describes the input parameters, input interface, model...

Barriers to implementation of risk management for federal wildland fire management agencies in the United States

Treesearch

Dave Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson; Alan A. Ager; Mark Finney

2010-01-01

In this presentation we review progress towards the implementation of a risk-based management framework for U.S. Federal wildland fire policy and operations. We first describe new developments in wildfire simulation technology that catalyzed the development of risk-based decision support systems for strategic wildfire management. These systems include new analytical...

75 FR 44275 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-28

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID FEMA-2010-0037] Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Notice of extension of comment period. SUMMARY: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is...

Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire-driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes.

PubMed

Pellegrini, Adam F A; Franco, Augusto C; Hoffmann, William A

2016-03-01

Numerous predictions indicate rising CO2 will accelerate the expansion of forests into savannas. Although encroaching forests can sequester carbon over the short term, increased fires and drought-fire interactions could offset carbon gains, which may be amplified by the shift toward forest plant communities more susceptible to fire-driven dieback. We quantify how bark thickness determines the ability of individual tree species to tolerate fire and subsequently determine the fire sensitivity of ecosystem carbon across 180 plots in savannas and forests throughout the 2.2-million km(2) Cerrado region in Brazil. We find that not accounting for variation in bark thickness across tree species underestimated carbon losses in forests by ~50%, totaling 0.22 PgC across the Cerrado region. The lower bark thicknesses of plant species in forests decreased fire tolerance to such an extent that a third of carbon gains during forest encroachment may be at risk of dieback if burned. These results illustrate that consideration of trait-based differences in fire tolerance is critical for determining the climate-carbon-fire feedback in tropical savanna and forest biomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increased incidence of red imported fire ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) presence in loggerhead sea turtle (Testudines: Cheloniidae) nests and observations of hatchling mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parris, L.B.; Lamont, M.M.; Carthy, R.R.

2002-01-01

Hatching sea turtles may be at risk to fire ant predation during egg incubation, and especially at risk once pipped from the egg, prior to hatchling emergence from the nest. In addition to direct mortality, fire ants have the potential to inflict debilitating injuries that may directly affect survival of the young. The increased incidence of red imported fire ant induced mortality and envenomization of loggerhead sea turtle hatchlings on Cape San Blas suggests this invasive ant species may pose a serious threat to the future of this genetically distinct population.

Evaluation of novel thermally enhanced spectral indices for mapping fire perimeters and comparisons with fire atlas data

Treesearch

Z.A Holden; P. Morgan; A.M.S. Smith; M Rollins; P.E. Gessler

2005-01-01

We evaluated the potential of two novel thermally enhanced Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM)-derived spectral indices for discriminating burned areas and for producing fire perimeter data (as a potential surrogate to digital fire atlas data) within two wildland fires (1985 and 1993) in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests of the Gila Wilderness, New...

Fire in the Earth system.

PubMed

Bowman, David M J S; Balch, Jennifer K; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J; Carlson, Jean M; Cochrane, Mark A; D'Antonio, Carla M; Defries, Ruth S; Doyle, John C; Harrison, Sandy P; Johnston, Fay H; Keeley, Jon E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Kull, Christian A; Marston, J Brad; Moritz, Max A; Prentice, I Colin; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Swetnam, Thomas W; van der Werf, Guido R; Pyne, Stephen J

2009-04-24

Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

Fire in the Earth system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowman, David M.J.S.; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J.; Carlson, Jean M.; Cochrane, Mark A.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Doyle, John C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Johnston, Fay H.; Keeley, Jon E.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Kull, Christian A.; Marston, J. Brad; Moritz, Max A.; Prentice, I. Colin; Roos, Christopher I.; Scott, Andrew C.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Pyne, Stephen

2009-01-01

Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

Fire fatality and alcohol intake: analysis of key risk factors.

PubMed

Bruck, Dorothy; Ball, Michelle; Thomas, Ian R

2011-09-01

After a brief review of the literature on the role of alcohol in residential fire deaths, a comparison of different risk factors for residential fire fatality was undertaken by closely analyzing the circumstances of fire victims as a function of alcohol intake. Analyses were based on Australian coroners' fire fatality records for the state of Victoria (1998-2006) and considered demographic, behavioral, and environmental factors for the 95 adult fire victims who were tested for alcohol (64 male, 31 female). Most (58%) had a positive blood alcohol concentration (BAC) test, with 31% of the total sample having a BAC of more than 0.20 gm per 100 ml. Odds ratio analyses showed that four variables were significantly more associated with victims who had consumed alcohol compared with sober victims. In descending odds ratio order, these variables were as follows: (a) being aged 18-60 years, (b) involving smoking materials (e.g. cigarettes, pipes), (c) having no conditions preventing escape, and (d) being male. An important new finding is that fire fatalities with positive BAC levels were more than three times less likely to have their clothing alight or exits blocked than sober fire victims. The risk of dying in a fire for alcohol-affected people who are capable of being alerted and escaping may be reduced if they can be alerted more quickly and effectively. Suitable measures for improving smoke alarms via interlinking and the use of an alarm signal demonstrated to be more effective at waking sleepers, including those who are alcohol affected, are discussed.

Evaluation and Testing of Rail Transit Undercar Fire Detection and Suppression Systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-08-01

This document presents the results of a comprehensive review and evaluation of transit undercar fire detection and suppression methods. The evaluation of fire detection method resulted in a recommendation that continuous wire type linear thermal dete...

Birth wind and fire: raising awareness to operating room fires during delivery.

PubMed

Wolf, Omer; Weissman, Oren; Harats, Moti; Farber, Nimrod; Stavrou, Demetris; Tessone, Ariel; Zilinsky, Isaac; Winkler, Eyal; Haik, Josef

2013-09-01

We researched whether the obstetric operating room (OR) qualified as a fire-risk environment so as to take preventive measures accordingly. We analyzed a series of iatrogenic burns inflicted during birth by collecting clinical data and comparing it with known OR fire risk factors and with other factors that repeated in all cases in search of unique characteristics of the obstetric OR. All three cases shared in common the same type of oxygen-rich open ventilation system, alcohol-based prepping solution, and the hastiness of cesarean delivery while spontaneous vaginal delivery was already in progress. The obstetric OR is, as suspected, a fire-prone zone in more ways than the regular OR. Therefore, preventive measures should be undertaken and awareness for the possibility for such occurrences should be raised.

Can fire safety in hotels be improved? Results from the survey of a panel of experts in Spain.

PubMed

Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Márquez-Sierra, Francisco; Suárez-Cebador, Manuel

2016-06-08

The hotel industry is an important driver of the European labour market with over 250,000 hotels employing some 2 million people. In Spain, 240 workers were injured by fires in hotels from 2004 to 2008. Fire is considered to be the most important risk in the hotel industry, but the lack of an EU-wide data recording system for hotels makes it difficult to give exact figures for fire events. We analysed the state of fire prevention systems in hotels in Spain with the aim of proposing strategies to improve fire safety. A 10-item questionnaire was administered from 2007 to 2009 to 15 Spanish experts in fire safety. The questions were measured using a Likert scale and classified into 4 sections: current state of installations, influence of establishment characteristics, application of regulations and priority ranking of actions. Descriptive statistics summarized the data and t-tests evaluated the agreement foreach statement in the questionnaire. The statistical analysis showed homogeneity in the responses by the experts in all four categories: current state of fire safety installations, influence of establishment characteristics, application of regulations, and priority of actions. There was consensus among the experts over the necessity to improve the enforcement of regulations and also regarding the existence of an association between the hotel category (in Spain they are ranked using a 1 to 5 "star" rating system) and the level of fire safety; hotels with a higher category had higher levels of safety. There is a need to identify ways to apply fire safety standards to older hotels so that they comply with new regulations, to standardize regulations for different regions and countries, to improve the maintenance of installations and equipment, to increase the effectiveness of inspections conducted by government bodies, and to raise the general awareness of stakeholders involved in hotel fire prevention.

Cascading effects of fire exclusion in the Rocky Mountain ecosystems: a literature review

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Kevin C. Ryan; Tom T. Veblen; Craig D. Allen; Jessie Logan; Brad Hawkes

2002-01-01

The health of many Rocky Mountain ecosystems is in decline because of the policy of excluding fire in the management of these ecosystems. Fire exclusion has actually made it more difficult to fight fires, and this poses greater risks to the people who fight fires and for those who live in and around Rocky Mountain forests and rangelands. This paper discusses the extent...

Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; environmental consequences fact sheet 06: wildland fire use: the "other" treatment option

Treesearch

Anne Black

2004-01-01

Fire suppression has reduced acres burned to an average of 2 million acres a year. An unfortunate result of this has been the accumulation of even more above-normal fuel loads in many areas. This paper discusses (1) the important ecological role of fire, (2) using fire as a fuels treatment, and (2) the benefits and risks of fire.

Respiratory tract deposition efficiencies: evaluation of effects from smoke released in the Cerro Grande forest fire.

PubMed

Schöllnberger, H; Aden, J; Scott, B R

2002-01-01

Forest-fire smoke inhaled by humans can cause various health effects. This smoke contains toxic chemicals and naturally occurring radionuclides. In northern New Mexico, a large wildfire occurred in May 2000. Known as the Cerro Grande Fire, it devastated the town of Los Alamos and damaged Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Residents were concerned about the possible dissemination of radionuclides from LANL via smoke from the fire. To evaluate potential health effects of inhaling radionuclides contained in the smoke from the Cerro Grande Fire, it was first necessary to evaluate how much smoke would deposit in the human respiratory tract. The purpose of this study was to evaluate respiratory-tract deposition efficiencies of airborne forest-fire smoke for persons of different ages exposed while inside their homes. Potential non-radiological health effects of a forest fire are reviewed. The deposition efficiencies presented can be used to evaluate in-home smoke deposition in the respiratory tract and expected radionuclide intake related to forest fires. The impact of smoke exposure on firemen fighting a forest fire is quantitatively discussed and compared. They primarily inhaled forest-fire smoke while outdoors where the smoke concentration was much higher than inside. Radionuclides released at the LANL site via the Cerro Grande Fire were restricted to naturally occurring radionuclides from burning trees and vegetation. Radiation doses from inhaled airborne radionuclides to individuals inside and outside the Los Alamos area were likely very small.

Fatigue risk management by volunteer fire-fighters: Use of informal strategies to augment formal policy.

PubMed

Dawson, Drew; Mayger, Katherine; Thomas, Matthew J W; Thompson, Kirrilly

2015-11-01

An increasing number and intensity of catastrophic fire events in Australia has led to increasing demands on a mainly volunteer fire-fighting workforce. Despite the increasing likelihood of fatigue in the emergency services environment, there is not yet a systematic, unified approach to fatigue management in fire agencies across Australia. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify informal strategies used in volunteer fire-fighting and examine how these strategies are transmitted across the workforce. Thirty experienced Australian volunteer fire-fighters were interviewed in August 2010. The study identified informal fatigue-management behaviours at the individual, team and brigade level that have evolved in fire-fighting environments and are regularly implemented. However, their purpose was not explicitly recognized as such. This apparent paradox - that fatigue proofing behaviours exist but that they are not openly understood as such - may well resolve a potential conflict between a culture of indefatigability in the emergency services sector and the frequent need to operate safely while fatigued. However, formal controls require fire-fighters and their organisations to acknowledge and accept their vulnerability. This suggests two important areas in which to improve formal fatigue risk management in the emergency services sector: (1) identifying and formalising tacit or informal fatigue coping strategies as legitimate elements of the fatigue risk management system; and (2) developing culturally appropriate techniques for systematically communicating fatigue levels to self and others. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating forest fuel and fire risk dynamics across landscapes--LANDIS fuel module design

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Bo Z. Shang; Thomas R. Crow; Eric J. Gustafson; Stephen R. Shifley

2004-01-01

Understanding fuel dynamics over large spatial (103-106 ha) and temporal scales (101-103 years) is important in comprehensive wildfire management. We present a modeling approach to simulate fuel and fire risk dynamics as well as impacts of alternative fuel treatments. The...

Wildfires and Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2009

2009-01-01

This publication discusses conditions that feed wildfires, how a building catches fire, determining the school's risk, creating a survivable space for the school, the importance of maintenance, the fire-resistant school, meeting code requirements, and related flood and mudslide risks. Much of this publication has been adapted for schools from the…

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk Rappold AG, Peterson GC, US EPA Matt Jolly, USFS Air pollution regulations and technological advances have successfully reduced emissions of air pollutants from many anthropogenic sources in recent decades. Duri...

Using Probability of Exceedance to Compare the Resource Risk of Renewable and Gas-Fired Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark

Of the myriad risks surrounding long-term investments in power plants, resource risk is one of the most difficult to mitigate, and is also perhaps the risk that most-clearly distinguishes renewable generation from natural gas-fired generation. For renewable generators like wind and solar projects, resource risk manifests as a quantity risk—i.e., the risk that the quantity of wind and insolation will be less than expected.i For gas-fired generators (i.e., a combined-cycle gas turbine or “CCGT”), resource risk manifests primarily as a price risk—i.e., the risk that natural gas will cost more than expected. Most often, resource risk—and natural gas price riskmore » in particular—falls disproportionately on utility ratepayers, who are typically not well-equipped to manage this risk. As such, it is incumbent upon utilities, regulators, and policymakers to ensure that resource risk is taken into consideration when making or approving resource decisions, or enacting policies that influence the development of the electricity sector more broadly.« less

National Fire Plan Research and Development 2002 Business Summary

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service

2003-01-01

This report summarizes the progress made by Forest Service NFP R&D in FY2002, the second year of NFP funding. Fire research conducted by Forest Service R&D is working to provide the scientific foundation necessary to increase firefighting safety and effectiveness, enhance restoration of fire-scarred landscapes, reduce fire risk through improved management of...

Solution Focused Empathy Training Groups for Students with Fire-Setting Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Froeschle, Janet G.

2006-01-01

Fire-setting students are those who intentionally or unintentionally set one or more fires due to curiosity, stress, a need for attention, or due to criminal delinquency. This article describes the nature of fire-setting behaviors, discusses the profile and risk factors associated with the behavior, and outlines a group program using empathy…

Fires following bark beetles: Factors controlling severity and disturbance interactions in ponderosa pine

Treesearch

Carolyn H. Sieg; Rodman R. Linn; Francois Pimont; Chad M. Hoffman; Joel D. McMillin; Judith Winterkamp; L. Scott Baggett

2017-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that bark beetles and fires can be interacting disturbances, whereby bark beetle-caused tree mortality can alter the risk and severity of subsequent wildland fires. However, there remains considerable uncertainty around the type and magnitude of the interaction between fires following bark beetle attacks, especially in drier forest types...

Decision modeling for fire incident analysis

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

This paper reports on methods for representing and modeling fire incidents based on concepts and models from the decision and risk sciences. A set of modeling techniques are used to characterize key fire management decision processes and provide a basis for incident analysis. The results of these methods can be used to provide insights into the structure of fire...