Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

2011-01-01

Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

Lagged cumulative spruce budworm defoliation affects the risk of fire ignition in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

James, Patrick M A; Robert, Louis-Etienne; Wotton, B Mike; Martell, David L; Fleming, Richard A

2017-03-01

Detailed understanding of forest disturbance interactions is needed for effective forecasting, modelling, and management. Insect outbreaks are a significant forest disturbance that alters forest structure as well as the distribution and connectivity of combustible fuels at broad spatial scales. The effect of insect outbreaks on fire activity is an important but contentious issue with significant policy consequences. The eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) is a native defoliating insect in eastern North America whose periodic outbreaks create large patches of dead fir and spruce trees. Of particular concern to fire and forest managers is whether these patches represent an increased fire risk, if so, for how long, and how the relationship between defoliation and fire risk varies through space and time. Previous work suggests a temporary increase in flammability in budworm-killed forests, but regional and seasonal variability in these relationships has not been examined. Using an extensive database on historical lightning-caused fire ignitions and spruce budworm defoliation between 1963 and 2000, we assess the relative importance of cumulative defoliation and fire weather on the probability of ignition in Ontario, Canada. We modeled fire ignition using a generalized additive logistic regression model that accounts for temporal autocorrelation in fire weather. We compared two ecoregions in eastern Ontario (Abitibi Plains) and western Ontario (Lake of the Woods) that differ in terms of climate, geomorphology, and forest composition. We found that defoliation has the potential to both increase and decrease the probability of ignition depending on the time scale, ecoregion, and season examined. Most importantly, we found that lagged spruce budworm defoliation (8-10 yr) increases the risk of fire ignition whereas recent defoliation (1 yr) can decrease this risk. We also found that historical defoliation has a greater influence on ignition risk during the spring than during the summer fire season. Given predicted increases in forest insect activity due to global change, these results represent important information for fire management agencies that can be used to refine existing models of fire risk. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Assessing the risk of ignition in the Russian far east within a modeling framework of fire threat.

PubMed

Loboda, Tatiana V; Csiszar, Ivan A

2007-04-01

The forests of high biological importance in the Russian Far East (RFE) have been experiencing increasing pressure from growing demands for natural resources under the changing economy of post-Soviet Russia. This pressure is further amplified by the rising threat of large and catastrophic fire occurrence, which threatens both the resources and the economic potential of the region. In this paper we introduce a conceptual Fire Threat Model (FTM) and use it to provide quantitative assessment of the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East. The remotely sensed data driven FTM is aimed at evaluating potential wildland fire occurrence and its impact and recovery potential for a given resource. This model is intended for use by resource managers to assist in assessing current levels of fire threat to a given resource, projecting the changes in fire threat under changing climate and land use, and evaluating the efficiency of various management approaches aimed at minimizing the fire impact. Risk of ignition (one of the major uncertainties within fire threat modeling) was analyzed using the MODIS active fire product. The risk of ignition in the RFE is shown to be highly variable in spatial and temporal domains. However, the number of ignition points is not directly proportional to the amount of fire occurrence in the area. Fire ignitions in the RFE are strongly linked to anthropogenic activity (transportation routes, settlements, and land use). An increase in the number of fire ignitions during summer months could be attributed to (1) disruption of the summer monsoons and subsequent changes in fire weather and (2) an increase in natural sources of fire ignitions.

Geographic Mapping as a Tool for Identifying Communities at High Risk for Fires.

PubMed

Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol; Coty, Mary-Beth

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the sample of older adults in a home fire safety (HFS) study captured participants living in the areas at highest risk for fire occurrence. The secondary aim was to identify high risk areas to focus future HFS interventions. Geographic information systems software was used to identify census tracts where study participants resided. Census data for these tracts were compared with participant data based on seven risk factors (ie, age greater than 65 years, nonwhite race, below high school education, low socioeconomic status, rented housing, year home built, home value) previously identified in a fire risk model. The distribution of participants and census tracts among risk categories determined how well higher risk census tracts were sampled. Of the 46 census tracts where the HFS intervention was implemented, 78% (n = 36) were identified as high or severe risk according to the fire risk model. Study participants' means for median annual family income (P < .0001) and median home value (P < .0001) were significantly lower than the census tract means (n = 46), indicating participants were at higher risk of fire occurrence. Of the 92 census tracts identified as high or severe risk in the entire county, the study intervention was implemented in 39% (n = 36), indicating 56 census tracts as potential areas for future HFS interventions. The Geographic information system-based fire risk model is an underutilized but important tool for practice that allows community agencies to develop, plan, and evaluate their outreach efforts and ensure the most effective use of scarce resources.

Applying GIS to develop a model for forest fire risk: A case study in Espírito Santo, Brazil.

PubMed

Eugenio, Fernando Coelho; dos Santos, Alexandre Rosa; Fiedler, Nilton Cesar; Ribeiro, Guido Assunção; da Silva, Aderbal Gomes; dos Santos, Áureo Banhos; Paneto, Greiciane Gaburro; Schettino, Vitor Roberto

2016-05-15

A forest fire risk map is a basic element for planning and protecting forested areas. The main goal of this study was to develop a statistical model for preparing a forest fire risk map using GIS. Such model is based on assigning weights to nine variables divided into two classes: physical factors of the site (terrain slope, land-use/occupation, proximity to roads, terrain orientation, and altitude) and climatic factors (precipitation, temperature, water deficit, and evapotranspiration). In regions where the climate is different from the conditions of this study, the model will require an adjustment of the variables weights according to the local climate. The study area, Espírito Santo State, exhibited approximately 3.81% low risk, 21.18% moderate risk, 30.10% high risk, 41.50% very high risk, and 3.40% extreme risk of forest fire. The areas classified as high risk, very high and extreme, contemplated a total of 78.92% of heat spots. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Forest fire risk assessment for China under different climate scenarios.

PubMed

Tian, Xiao Rui; Dai, Xuan; Wang, Ming Yu; Zhao, Feng Jun; Shu, Li Fu

2016-03-01

Forest fire risk depends on the hazard factors, affected body, and hazard prevention and reduction ability. The integrated risk assessment is the foundation for developing scientific fire mana-gement policies and carrying out the forest fire prevention measures. A forest fire risk assessment model and index system were established based on the classic natural disaster risk model and available data, and the model was used to assess the forest fire risks in past and future. The future climate scenario data included outputs from five global climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Each component index of Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was calculated daily for each grid in 1987-2050 for the historical observations and future climate scenarios according to the maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation. The results showed that areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 1987-2010 accounted for 21.2% and 6.2%, respectively, which were distributed in Greater Xing'an Mountains and the Changbai Mountain area, most parts of Yunnan, and many fragment areas in southern China. The areas with high and very high burn possibilities were mainly distributed in the northeast and southwest region, accounting for 13.1% and 4.0%, respectively. Compared with the observation period, the areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 2021-2050 would increase by 0.6%, 5.5%, 2.3%, and 3.5% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 respectively, and North China would show significant increase. The regions with high-risk forest fires would also increase due to climate change, with the most significant increase under RCP 8.5 scenario (+1.6%).

Wild Fire Risk Map in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag

2016-06-01

Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cooke, William H.; Mostovoy, Georgy; Anantharaj, Valentine G

2012-01-01

Three fire risk indexes based on soil moisture estimates were applied to simulate wildfire probability over the southern part of Mississippi using the logistic regression approach. The fire indexes were retrieved from: (1) accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-E); (2) top 10 cm soil moisture content simulated by the Mosaic land surface model; and (3) the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI). The P-E, KBDI, and soil moisture based indexes were estimated from gridded atmospheric and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Normalized deviations of these indexes from the 31-year meanmore » (1980-2010) were fitted into the logistic regression model describing probability of wildfires occurrence as a function of the fire index. It was assumed that such normalization provides more robust and adequate description of temporal dynamics of soil moisture anomalies than the original (not normalized) set of indexes. The logistic model parameters were evaluated for 0.25 x0.25 latitude/longitude cells and for probability representing at least one fire event occurred during 5 consecutive days. A 23-year (1986-2008) forest fires record was used. Two periods were selected and examined (January mid June and mid September December). The application of the logistic model provides an overall good agreement between empirical/observed and model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire risk indexes based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI have the largest impact on the wildfire odds (increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire risk index during January mid June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid September-December) observed over 0.25 x0.25 cells located along the state of Mississippi Coast line. This result suggests a rather strong control of fire risk indexes on fire occurrence probability over this region.« less

Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott; Paul Langowski; Elise Bowne; David E. Calkin

2015-01-01

Applying wildfire risk assessment models can inform investments in loss mitigation and landscape restoration, and can be used to monitor spatiotemporal trends in risk. Assessing wildfire risk entails the integration of fire modeling outputs, maps of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs), characterization of fire effects, and articulation of relative importance...

Chapter 4. Predicting post-fire erosion and sedimentation risk on a landscape scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacDonald, L.H.; Sampson, R.; Brady, D.; Juarros, L.; Martin, Deborah

2000-01-01

Historic fire suppression efforts have increased the likelihood of large wildfires in much of the western U.S. Post-fire soil erosion and sedimentation risks are important concerns to resource managers. In this paper we develop and apply procedures to predict post-fire erosion and sedimentation risks on a pixel-, catchment-, and landscape-scale in central and western Colorado.Our model for predicting post-fire surface erosion risk is conceptually similar to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). One key addition is the incorporation of a hydrophobicity risk index (HY-RISK) based on vegetation type, predicted fire severity, and soil texture. Post-fire surface erosion risk was assessed for each 90-m pixel by combining HYRISK, slope, soil erodibility, and a factor representing the likely increase in soil wetness due to removal of the vegetation. Sedimentation risk was a simple function of stream gradient. Composite surface erosion and sedimentation risk indices were calculated and compared across the 72 catchments in the study area.When evaluated on a catchment scale, two-thirds of the catchments had relatively little post-fire erosion risk. Steeper catchments with higher fuel loadings typically had the highest post-fire surface erosion risk. These were generally located along the major north-south mountain chains and, to a lesser extent, in west-central Colorado. Sedimentation risks were usually highest in the eastern part of the study area where a higher proportion of streams had lower gradients. While data to validate the predicted erosion and sedimentation risks are lacking, the results appear reasonable and are consistent with our limited field observations. The models and analytic procedures can be readily adapted to other locations and should provide useful tools for planning and management at both the catchment and landscape scale.

Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

Treesearch

Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

2010-01-01

Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

Decision modeling for fire incident analysis

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

This paper reports on methods for representing and modeling fire incidents based on concepts and models from the decision and risk sciences. A set of modeling techniques are used to characterize key fire management decision processes and provide a basis for incident analysis. The results of these methods can be used to provide insights into the structure of fire...

Finding simplicity in complexity: modelling post-fire hydrogeomorphic processes and risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, Gary; Langhans, Christoph; Lane, Patrick; Nyman, Petter

2017-04-01

Post-fire runoff and erosion can shape landscapes, destroy infrastructure, and result in the loss of human life. However even within seemingly similar geographic regions post-fire hydro-geomorphic responses vary from almost no response through to catastrophic flash floods and debris flows. Why is there so much variability, and how can we predict areas at risk? This presentation describes the research journey taken by the post-fire research group at The University of Melbourne to answer this question for the se Australian uplands. Key steps along the way have included identifying the dominant erosion processes (and their forcings), and the key system properties controlling the rates of these dominant processes. The high degree of complexity in the interactions between the forcings, the system properties, and the erosion processes, necessitated the development of a simplified conceptual representation of post-fire hydrogeomorphic system that was conducive to modelling and simulation. Spatially mappable metrics (and proxies) for key system forcings and properties were then required to parameterize and drive the model. Each step in this journey has depended on new research, as well as ongoing feedback from land and water management agencies tasked with implementing these risk models and interpreting the results. These models are now imbedded within agencies and used for strategic risk assessments, for tactical response during fires, and for post-fire remediation and risk planning. Reflecting on the successes and failures along the way provides for some more general insights into the process of developing research-based models for operational use by land and water management agencies.

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression.

PubMed

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-04-08

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression

PubMed Central

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-01-01

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale. PMID:28397745

Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

2018-01-01

This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

Fire risk in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Seth Howard

Fire is an integral part of ecosystems in the western United States. Decades of fire suppression have led to (unnaturally) large accumulations of fuel in some forest communities, such as the lower elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada. Urban sprawl into fire prone chaparral vegetation in southern California has put human lives at risk and the decreased fire return intervals have put the vegetation community at risk of type conversion. This research examines the factors affecting fire risk in two of the dominant landscapes in the state of California, chaparral and inland coniferous forests. Live fuel moisture (LFM) is important for fire ignition, spread rate, and intensity in chaparral. LFM maps were generated for Los Angeles County by developing and then inverting robust cross-validated regression equations from time series field data and vegetation indices (VIs) and phenological metrics from MODIS data. Fire fuels, including understory fuels which are not visible to remote sensing instruments, were mapped in Yosemite National Park using the random forests decision tree algorithm and climatic, topographic, remotely sensed, and fire history variables. Combining the disparate data sources served to improve classification accuracies. The models were inverted to produce maps of fuel models and fuel amounts, and these showed that fire fuel amounts are highest in the low elevation forests that have been most affected by fire suppression impacting the natural fire regime. Wildland fires in chaparral commonly burn in late summer or fall when LFM is near its annual low, however, the Jesusita Fire burned in early May of 2009, when LFM was still relatively high. The HFire fire spread model was used to simulate the growth of the Jesusita Fire using LFM maps derived from imagery acquired at the time of the fire and imagery acquired in late August to determine how much different the fire would have been if it had occurred later in the year. Simulated fires were 1.5 times larger, and the fire reached the wildland urban interface three hours earlier, when using August LFM.

The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the wildland urban interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-12-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the wildland urban interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of the 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire's weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting >2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances >10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). Overall, 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the Wildland Urban Interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-09-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting more than 2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances further than 10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

Providing the Fire Risk Map in Forest Area Using a Geographically Weighted Regression Model with Gaussin Kernel and Modis Images, a Case Study: Golestan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah-Heydari pour, A.; Pahlavani, P.; Bigdeli, B.

2017-09-01

According to the industrialization of cities and the apparent increase in pollutants and greenhouse gases, the importance of forests as the natural lungs of the earth is felt more than ever to clean these pollutants. Annually, a large part of the forests is destroyed due to the lack of timely action during the fire. Knowledge about areas with a high-risk of fire and equipping these areas by constructing access routes and allocating the fire-fighting equipment can help to eliminate the destruction of the forest. In this research, the fire risk of region was forecasted and the risk map of that was provided using MODIS images by applying geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel and ordinary least squares over the effective parameters in forest fire including distance from residential areas, distance from the river, distance from the road, height, slope, aspect, soil type, land use, average temperature, wind speed, and rainfall. After the evaluation, it was found that the geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel forecasted 93.4% of the all fire points properly, however the ordinary least squares method could forecast properly only 66% of the fire points.

Detection, Emission Estimation and Risk Prediction of Forest Fires in China Using Satellite Sensors and Simulation Models in the Past Three Decades—An Overview

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jia-Hua; Yao, Feng-Mei; Liu, Cheng; Yang, Li-Min; Boken, Vijendra K.

2011-01-01

Forest fires have major impact on ecosystems and greatly impact the amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. This paper presents an overview in the forest fire detection, emission estimation, and fire risk prediction in China using satellite imagery, climate data, and various simulation models over the past three decades. Since the 1980s, remotely-sensed data acquired by many satellites, such as NOAA/AVHRR, FY-series, MODIS, CBERS, and ENVISAT, have been widely utilized for detecting forest fire hot spots and burned areas in China. Some developed algorithms have been utilized for detecting the forest fire hot spots at a sub-pixel level. With respect to modeling the forest burning emission, a remote sensing data-driven Net Primary productivity (NPP) estimation model was developed for estimating forest biomass and fuel. In order to improve the forest fire risk modeling in China, real-time meteorological data, such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, have been used as the model input for improving prediction of forest fire occurrence and its behavior. Shortwave infrared (SWIR) and near infrared (NIR) channels of satellite sensors have been employed for detecting live fuel moisture content (FMC), and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used for evaluating the forest vegetation condition and its moisture status. PMID:21909297

Detection, emission estimation and risk prediction of forest fires in China using satellite sensors and simulation models in the past three decades--an overview.

PubMed

Zhang, Jia-Hua; Yao, Feng-Mei; Liu, Cheng; Yang, Li-Min; Boken, Vijendra K

2011-08-01

Forest fires have major impact on ecosystems and greatly impact the amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. This paper presents an overview in the forest fire detection, emission estimation, and fire risk prediction in China using satellite imagery, climate data, and various simulation models over the past three decades. Since the 1980s, remotely-sensed data acquired by many satellites, such as NOAA/AVHRR, FY-series, MODIS, CBERS, and ENVISAT, have been widely utilized for detecting forest fire hot spots and burned areas in China. Some developed algorithms have been utilized for detecting the forest fire hot spots at a sub-pixel level. With respect to modeling the forest burning emission, a remote sensing data-driven Net Primary productivity (NPP) estimation model was developed for estimating forest biomass and fuel. In order to improve the forest fire risk modeling in China, real-time meteorological data, such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, have been used as the model input for improving prediction of forest fire occurrence and its behavior. Shortwave infrared (SWIR) and near infrared (NIR) channels of satellite sensors have been employed for detecting live fuel moisture content (FMC), and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used for evaluating the forest vegetation condition and its moisture status.

Fires, storms, and water supplies: a case of compound extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, G. J.; Nyman, P.; Langhans, C.; Jones, O.; Lane, P. N.

2013-12-01

Intense rainfall events following fire can wash sediment and ash into streams and reservoirs, contaminating water supplies for cities and towns. Post fire flooding and debris flows damage infrastructure and endanger life. These kinds of risks which are associated with a combination of two or more events (which may or may not be extreme when occurring independently) are an example of what the IPCC recently referred to as ';compound extremes'. Detailed models exist for modeling fire and erosion events separately, however there have been few attempts to integrate these models so as to estimate the water quality and infrastructure risks associated with combined fire and rainfall regimes. This presentation will articulate the issues associated with modeling the compound effects of fire and subsequent rainfall events on erosion, debris flows and water quality, and will describe and contrast several new approaches to modeling this problem developed and applied to SE Australian fire prone landscapes under the influence of climate change.

Simulating wildfire spread behavior between two NASA Active Fire data timeframes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, B.; Hodza, P.; Xu, C.; Minckley, T. A.

2017-12-01

Although NASA's Active Fire dataset is considered valuable in mapping the spatial distribution and extent of wildfires across the world, the data is only available at approximately 12-hour time intervals, creating uncertainties and risks associated with fire spread and behavior between the two Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Satellite (VIIRS) data collection timeframes. Our study seeks to close the information gap for the United States by using the latest Active Fire data collected for instance around 0130 hours as an ignition source and critical inputs to a wildfire model by uniquely incorporating forecasted and real-time weather conditions for predicting fire perimeter at the next 12 hour reporting time (i.e. around 1330 hours). The model ingests highly dynamic variables such as fuel moisture, temperature, relative humidity, wind among others, and prompts a Monte Carlo simulation exercise that uses a varying range of possible values for evaluating all possible wildfire behaviors. The Monte Carlo simulation implemented in this model provides a measure of the relative wildfire risk levels at various locations based on the number of times those sites are intersected by simulated fire perimeters. Model calibration is achieved using data at next reporting time (i.e. after 12 hours) to enhance the predictive quality at further time steps. While initial results indicate that the calibrated model can predict the overall geometry and direction of wildland fire spread, the model seems to over-predict the sizes of most fire perimeters possibly due to unaccounted fire suppression activities. Nonetheless, the results of this study show great promise in aiding wildland fire tracking, fighting and risk management.

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

[Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

PubMed

Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

2015-07-01

The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

Predicting hydrological and erosional risks in fire-affected watersheds: recent advances and research gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, João Pedro; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2017-04-01

Models can be invaluable tools to assess and manage the impacts of forest fires on hydrological and erosion processes. Immediately after fires, models can be used to identify priority areas for post-fire interventions or assess the risks of flooding and downstream contamination. In the long term, models can be used to evaluate the long-term implications of a fire regime for soil protection, surface water quality and potential management risks, or determine how changes to fire regimes, caused e.g. by climate change, can impact soil and water quality. However, several challenges make post-fire modelling particularly difficult: • Fires change vegetation cover and properties, such as by changing soil water repellency or by adding an ash layer over the soil; these processes, however are not described in currently used models, so that existing models need to be modified and tested. • Vegetation and soils recover with time since fire, changing important model parameters, so that the recovery processes themselves also need to be simulated, including the role of post-fire interventions. • During the window of vegetation and soil disturbance, particular weather conditions, such as the occurrence of severe droughts or extreme rainfall events, can have a large impact on the amount of runoff and erosion produced in burnt areas, so that models that smooth out these peak responses and rather simulate "long-term" average processes are less useful. • While existing models can simulate reasonable well slope-scale runoff generation and associated sediment losses and their catchment-scale routing, few models can accommodate the role of the ash layer or its transport by overland flow, in spite of its importance for soil fertility losses and downstream contamination. This presentation will provide an overview of the importance of post-fire hydrological and erosion modelling as well as of the challenges it faces and of recent efforts made to overcome these challenges. It will illustrate these challenges with two examples: probabilistic approaches to simulate the impact of different vegetation regrowth and post-fire climate combinations on runoff and erosion; and model developments for post-fire soil water repellency with different levels of complexity. It will also present an inventory of the current state-of-the-art and propose future research directions, both on post-fire models themselves and on their integration with other models in large-scale water resource assessment management.

Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hawbaker, Todd J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hammer, Roger B.; Keuler, Nicholas S.; Clayton, Murray K.

2013-01-01

National-scale analyses of fire occurrence are needed to prioritize fire policy and management activities across the United States. However, the drivers of national-scale patterns of fire occurrence are not well understood, and how the relative importance of human or biophysical factors varies across the country is unclear. Our research goal was to model the drivers of fire occurrence within ecoregions across the conterminous United States. We used generalized linear models to compare the relative influence of human, vegetation, climate, and topographic variables on fire occurrence in the United States, as measured by MODIS active fire detections collected between 2000 and 2006. We constructed models for all fires and for large fires only and generated predictive maps to quantify fire occurrence probabilities. Areas with high fire occurrence probabilities were widespread in the Southeast, and localized in the Mountain West, particularly in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Probabilities for large-fire occurrence were generally lower, but hot spots existed in the western and south-central United States The probability of fire occurrence is a critical component of fire risk assessments, in addition to vegetation type, fire behavior, and the values at risk. Many of the hot spots we identified have extensive development in the wildland–urban interface and are near large metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrated that human variables were important predictors of both all fires and large fires and frequently exhibited nonlinear relationships. However, vegetation, climate, and topography were also significant variables in most ecoregions. If recent housing growth trends and fire occurrence patterns continue, these areas will continue to challenge policies and management efforts seeking to balance the risks generated by wildfires with the ecological benefits of fire.

Can private land conservation reduce wildfire risk to homes? A case study in San Diego County, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butsic, Van; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bar-Massada, Avi

2017-01-01

The purchase of private land for conservation purposes is a common way to prevent the exploitation of sensitive ecological areas. However, private land conservation can also provide other benefits, one of these being natural hazard reduction. Here, we investigated the impacts of private land conservation on fire risk to homes in San Diego County, California. We coupled an econometric land use change model with a model that estimates the probability of house loss due to fire in order to compare fire risk at the county and municipality scale under alternative private land purchasing schemes and over a 20 year time horizon. We found that conservation purchases could reduce fire risk on this landscape, and the amount of risk reduction was related to the targeting approach used to choose which parcels were conserved. Conservation land purchases that targeted parcels designated as high fire hazard resulted in lower fire risk to homes than purchases that targeted low costs or high likelihood to subdivide. This result was driven by (1) preventing home placement in fire prone areas and (2) taking land off the market, and hence increasing development densities in other areas. These results raise the possibility that resource conservation and fire hazard reduction may benefit from combining efforts. With adequate planning, future conservation purchases could have synergistic effects beyond just protecting ecologically sensitive areas.

An approach to the real time risk evaluation system of boreal forest fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakau, K.; Fukuda, M.; Kimura, K.; Hayasaka, H.; Tani, H.; Kushida, K.

2005-12-01

Huge boreal forest fire may cause massive impacts not only on global warming gas emission but also local communities. Thus, it is important to control forest fire. We collected data about boreal forest fire as satellite imagery and fire observation simultaneously in Alaska and east Siberia in summer fire seasons for these three years. Fire observation data was collected from aircraft flying between Japan and Europe. Fire detection results were compared with observed data to evaluate the accuracy and earliness of automatic detection. NOAA and MODIS satellite images covering Alaska and East Siberia are collected. We are also developing fire expansion simulation model to forecast the possible fire expansion area. On the basis of fire expansion forecast, risk analysis of possible fire expansion for decision aid of fire-fighting activities will be analyzed. To identify the risk of boreal forest fire and public concern about forest fire, we collected local news paper in Fairbanks, AK and discuss the statistics of articles related to forest fire on the newspaper.

Fire spread estimation on forest wildfire using ensemble kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syarifah, Wardatus; Apriliani, Erna

2018-04-01

Wildfire is one of the most frequent disasters in the world, for example forest wildfire, causing population of forest decrease. Forest wildfire, whether naturally occurring or prescribed, are potential risks for ecosystems and human settlements. These risks can be managed by monitoring the weather, prescribing fires to limit available fuel, and creating firebreaks. With computer simulations we can predict and explore how fires may spread. The model of fire spread on forest wildfire was established to determine the fire properties. The fire spread model is prepared based on the equation of the diffusion reaction model. There are many methods to estimate the spread of fire. The Kalman Filter Ensemble Method is a modified estimation method of the Kalman Filter algorithm that can be used to estimate linear and non-linear system models. In this research will apply Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method to estimate the spread of fire on forest wildfire. Before applying the EnKF method, the fire spread model will be discreted using finite difference method. At the end, the analysis obtained illustrated by numerical simulation using software. The simulation results show that the Ensemble Kalman Filter method is closer to the system model when the ensemble value is greater, while the covariance value of the system model and the smaller the measurement.

Predicting fire effects on water quality: a perspective and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Hugh; Sheridan, Gary; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick

2017-04-01

Forest environments are a globally significant source of drinking water. Fire presents a credible threat to the supply of high quality water in many forested regions. The post-fire risk to water supplies depends on storm event characteristics, vegetation cover and fire-related changes in soil infiltration and erodibility modulated by landscape position. The resulting magnitude of runoff generation, erosion and constituent flux to streams and reservoirs determines the severity of water quality impacts in combination with the physical and chemical composition of the entrained material. Research to date suggests that most post-fire water quality impacts are due to large increases in the supply of particulates (fine-grained sediment and ash) and particle-associated chemical constituents. The largest water quality impacts result from high magnitude erosion events, including debris flow processes, which typically occur in response to short duration, high intensity storm events during the recovery period. Most research to date focuses on impacts on water quality after fire. However, information on potential water quality impacts is required prior to fire events for risk planning. Moreover, changes in climate and forest management (e.g. prescribed burning) that affect fire regimes may alter water quality risks. Therefore, prediction requires spatial-temporal representation of fire and rainfall regimes coupled with information on fire-related changes to soil hydrologic parameters. Recent work has applied such an approach by combining a fire spread model with historic fire weather data in a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify probabilities associated with fire and storm events generating debris flows and fine sediment influx to a reservoir located in Victoria, Australia. Prediction of fire effects on water quality would benefit from further research in several areas. First, more work on regional-scale stochastic modelling of intersecting fire and storm events with landscape zones of erosion vulnerability is required to support quantitative evaluation of water quality risk and the effect of future changes in climate and land management. Second, we underscore previous calls for characterisation of landscape-scale domains to support regionalisation of parameter sets derived from empirical studies. Recent examples include work identifying aridity as a control of hydro-geomorphic response to fire and the use of spectral-based indices to predict spatial heterogeneity in ash loadings. Third, information on post-fire erosion from colluvial or alluvial stores is needed to determine their significance as both sediment-contaminant sinks and sources. Such sediment stores may require explicit spatial representation in risk models for some environments and sediment tracing can be used to determine their relative importance as secondary sources. Fourth, increased dating of sediment archives could provide regional datasets of fire-related erosion event frequency. Presently, the lack of such data hinders evaluation of risk models linking fire and storm events to erosion and water quality impacts.

Forest landowner decisions and the value of information under fire risk.

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We estimate the value of three types of information about fire risk to a nonindustrial forest landowner: the relationship between fire arrival rates and stand age, the magnitude of fire arrival rates, and the efficacy of fuel reduction treatment. Our model incorporates planting density and the level and timing of fuel reduction treatment as landowner decisions. These...

A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac C. Grenfell; Karin L. Riley; Karen C. Short

2011-01-01

This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for...

A wildfire risk modeling system for evaluating landscape fuel treatment strategies

Treesearch

Alan Ager; Mark Finney; Andrew McMahan

2006-01-01

Despite a wealth of literature and models concerning wildfire risk, field units in Federal land management agencies lack a clear framework and operational tools to measure how risk might change from proposed fuel treatments. In an actuarial context, risk is defined as the expected value change from a fire, calculated as the product of (1) probability of a fire at a...

Changes in future fire regimes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut

2013-04-01

Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.

Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

Treesearch

Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2015-01-01

Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

Integrating climatic and fuels information into National Fire Risk Decision Support Tools

Treesearch

W. Cooke; V. Anantharaj; C. Wax; J. Choi; K. Grala; M. Jolly; G.P. Dixon; J. Dyer; D.L. Evans; G.B. Goodrich

2007-01-01

The Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) is a component of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Decision Support Systems (DSS) that support fire potential modeling. Fire potential models for Mississippi and for Eastern fire environments have been developed as part of a National Aeronautic and Space Agency-funded study aimed at demonstrating the utility...

History of Fire Events in the U.S. Commercial Nuclear Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bijan Najafi; Joglar-Biloch, Francisco; Kassawara, Robert P.

2002-07-01

Over the past decade, interest in performance-based fire protection has increased within the nuclear industry. In support of this growing interest, in 1997 the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed a long-range plan to develop/improve data and tools needed to support Risk-Informed/Performance-Based fire protection. This plan calls for continued improvement in collection and use of information obtained from fire events at nuclear plants. The data collection process has the objectives of improving the insights gained from such data and reducing the uncertainty in fire risk and fire modeling methods in order to make them a more reliable basis for performancemore » based fire protection programs. In keeping with these objectives, EPRI continues to collect, review and analyze fire events in support of the nuclear industry. EPRI collects these records in cooperation with the Nuclear Electric Insurance Limited (NEIL), by compiling public fire event reports and by direct solicitation of U.S. nuclear facilities. EPRI fire data collection project is based on the principle that the understanding of history is one of the cornerstones of improving fire protection technology and practice. Therefore, the goal has been to develop and maintain a comprehensive database of fire events with flexibility to support various aspects of fire protection engineering. With more than 1850 fire records over a period of three decades and 2400 reactor years, this is the most comprehensive database of nuclear power industry fire events in existence today. In general, the frequency of fires in the U.S. commercial nuclear industry remains constant. In few cases, e.g., transient fires and fires in BWR offgas/recombiner systems, where either increasing or decreasing trends are observed, these trends tend to slow after 1980. The key issues in improving quality of the data remain to be consistency of the recording and reporting of fire events and difficulties in collection of records. EPRI has made significant progress towards improving the quality of the fire events data through use of multiple collection methods as well as its review and verification. To date EPRI has used this data to develop a generic fire ignition frequency model for U.S. nuclear power industry (Ref. 1, 4 and 5) as well as to support other models in support of EPRI Fire Risk Methods such as a cable fire manual suppression model. EPRI will continue its effort to collect and analyze operating data to support risk informed/performance based fire safety engineering, including collection and analysis of impairment data for fire protection systems and features. This paper provides details on the collection and application of fire events to risk informed/performance based fire protection. The paper also provides valuable insights into improving both collection and use of fire events data. (authors)« less

Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

2015-12-01

The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had meaningful result with artificial and natural effect. It is expected to predict future forest fire risk with future climate variables as the climate changes.

Application of remote sensing and geographical information system in mapping forest fire risk zone at Bhadra wildlife sanctuary, India.

PubMed

Sowmya, S V; Somashekar, R K

2010-11-01

Fire is the most spectacular natural disturbance that affects the forest ecosystem composition and diversity. Fire has a devastating effect on the landscape and its impact is felt at every level of the ecosystem and it is possible to map forest fire risk zone and thereby minimize the frequency of fire. There is a need for supranational approaches that analyze wide scenarios of factors involved and global fire effects. Fires can be monitored and analyzed over large areas in a timely and cost effective manner by using satellite imagery. Also Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used effectively to demarcate the fire risk zone map. Bhadra wildlife Sanctuary located in Kamataka, India was selected for this study. Vegetation, slope, distance from roads, settlements parameters were derived for a study area using topographic maps and field information. The Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS)-based forest fire risk model of the study area appeared to be highly compatible with the actual fire-affected sites. The temporal satellite data from 1989 to2006 have been analyzed to map the burnt areas. These classes were weighted according to their influence on forest fire. Four categories of fire risk regions such as Low, Moderate, High and Very high fire intensity zones were identified. It is predicted that around 10.31% of the area falls undermoderate risk zone.

Joint modeling of human dwellings and the natural ecosystem at the wildland-urban interface helps mitigation of forest-fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, M.; Spyratos, V.; Bourgeron, P. S.

2007-12-01

The late summer of 2007 has seen again a large number of catastrophic forest fires in the Western United States and Southern Europe. These fires arose in or spread to human habitats at the so-called wildland-urban interface (WUI). Within the conterminous United States alone, the WUI occupies just under 10 percent of the surface and contains almost 40 percent of all housing units. Recent dry spells associated with climate variability and climate change make the impact of such catastrophic fires a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists and the general public. In order to explore the qualitative influence of the presence of houses on fire spread, we considered only uniform landscapes and fire spread as a simple percolation process, with given house densities d and vegetation flammabilities p. Wind, topography, fuel heterogeneities, firebrands and weather affect actual fire spread. The present theoretical results would therefore, need to be integrated into more detailed fire models before practical, quantitative applications of the present results. Our simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, shows that fire-size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density d and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability p and house density d. The sharpness of this transition is related to the critical thresholds that arise in percolation theory for an infinite domain; it is their translation into our model's finite-area domain, which is a more realistic representation of actual fire landscapes. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition zone. Hence, and despite having neglected additional complexities, our idealized model's results indicate that more detailed models used for assessing fire risk in the WUI should integrate the density and flammability of houses in these areas. Furthermore, our results imply that fire proofing houses and their immediate surroundings within the WUI would not only reduce the houses' flammability and increase the security of the inhabitants, but also reduce fire risk for the entire landscape.

Multi-temporal analysis of forest fire risk driven by environmental and socio-economic change in the Republic of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. J.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, G. S.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

Analysis of forest fire risk is important in disaster risk reduction (DRR) since it provides a way to manage forest fires. Climate and socio-economic factors are important in the cause of forest fires, and the role of the socio-economic factors in prevention and preparedness of forest fires is increasing. As most of the forest fires in the Republic of Korea are highly related to human activities, both environmental factors and socio-economic factors were considered into the analysis of forest fire risk. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential geographical distribution and probability of forest fire occurrence spatially and temporally from 1980s to the 2010s in the Republic of Korea by multi-temporal analysis and analyze the relationship between forest fires and the factors. As a result of the risk analysis, there was an overall increasing trend in forest fire risk from the 1980s to the 2000s, and socio-economic factors were highly correlated with the occurrence of forest fires. The study demonstrates that the socio-economic factors considered as human activities can increase the occurrence of forest fires. The result implies that managing human activities are significant to prevent forest fire occurrence. In addition, timely forest fire prevention and control is necessary as drought index such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) also affected forest fires.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management.

PubMed

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G; McIntire, Eliot J B

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover's direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate-fire-fuels systems.

Partnership working between the Fire Service and NHS: delivering a cost-saving service to improve the safety of high-risk people.

PubMed

Craig, Joyce A; Creegan, Shelagh; Tait, Martin; Dolan, Donna

2015-04-14

The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service and NHS Tayside piloted partnership working. A Community Fire Safety Link Worker provided Risk Assessments to adults, identified by community health teams, at high risk of fires, with the aim of reducing fires. An existing evaluation shows the Service developed a culture of 'high trust' between partners and had high client satisfaction. This paper reports on an economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role. An economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role was undertaken. Changes in the Risk Assessment score following delivery of the Service were used to estimate the potential fires avoided. These were valued using a national cost of a fire. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was deducted from these savings. The pilot was estimated to save 4.4 fires, equivalent to £286 per client. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was £55 per client, giving net savings of £231 per client. The pilot was cost-saving under all scenarios, with results sensitive to the probability of a fire. We believe this is the first evaluation of Fire Safety Risk Assessments. Partnership working, delivering joint Risk Assessments in the homes of people at high risk of fire, is modelled to be cost saving. Uncertainties in data and small sample are key limitations. Further research is required into the ex ante risk of fire by risk category. Despite these limitations, potential savings identified in this study supports greater adoption of this partnership initiative.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management

PubMed Central

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G.; McIntire, Eliot J. B.

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover’s direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate–fire–fuels systems. PMID:28609467

Uncontrolled combustion of shredded tires in a landfill -Part 2: Population exposure, public health response, and an air quality index for urban fires

PubMed Central

Singh, Ashish; Spak, Scott N.; Stone, Elizabeth A.; Downard, Jared; Bullard, Robert; Pooley, Mark; Kostle, Pamela A.; Mainprize, Matthew W.; Wichman, Michael D.; Peters, Thomas; Beardsley, Douglas; Stanier, Charles O.

2015-01-01

The Iowa City Landfill in eastern Iowa, United States, experienced a fire lasting 18 days in 2012, in which a drainage layer of over 1 million shredded tires burned, generating smoke that impacted the surrounding metropolitan area of 130,000 people. This emergency required air monitoring, risk assessment, dispersion modeling, and public notification. This paper quantifies the impact of the fire on local air quality and proposes a monitoring approach and an Air Quality Index (AQI) for use in future tire fires and other urban fires. Individual fire pollutants are ranked for acute and cancer relative risks using hazard ratios, with the highest acute hazard ratios attributed to SO2, particulate matter, and aldehydes. Using a dispersion model in conjunction with the new AQI, we estimate that smoke concentrations reached unhealthy outdoor levels for sensitive groups out to distances of 3.1 km and 18 km at 24-h and 1-h average times, respectively. Modeled and measured concentrations of PM2.5 from smoke and other compounds such as VOCs and benzo[a]pyrene are presented at a range of distances and averaging times, and the corresponding cancer risks are discussed. Through reflection on the air quality response to the event, consideration of cancer and acute risks, and comparison to other tire fires, we recommend that all landfills with shredded tire liners plan for hazmat fire emergencies. A companion paper presents emission factors and detailed smoke characterization. PMID:25624787

Uncontrolled combustion of shredded tires in a landfill -Part 2: Population exposure, public health response, and an air quality index for urban fires.

PubMed

Singh, Ashish; Spak, Scott N; Stone, Elizabeth A; Downard, Jared; Bullard, Robert; Pooley, Mark; Kostle, Pamela A; Mainprize, Matthew W; Wichman, Michael D; Peters, Thomas; Beardsley, Douglas; Stanier, Charles O

2015-03-01

The Iowa City Landfill in eastern Iowa, United States, experienced a fire lasting 18 days in 2012, in which a drainage layer of over 1 million shredded tires burned, generating smoke that impacted the surrounding metropolitan area of 130,000 people. This emergency required air monitoring, risk assessment, dispersion modeling, and public notification. This paper quantifies the impact of the fire on local air quality and proposes a monitoring approach and an Air Quality Index (AQI) for use in future tire fires and other urban fires. Individual fire pollutants are ranked for acute and cancer relative risks using hazard ratios, with the highest acute hazard ratios attributed to SO 2 , particulate matter, and aldehydes. Using a dispersion model in conjunction with the new AQI, we estimate that smoke concentrations reached unhealthy outdoor levels for sensitive groups out to distances of 3.1 km and 18 km at 24-h and 1-h average times, respectively. Modeled and measured concentrations of PM 2.5 from smoke and other compounds such as VOCs and benzo[a]pyrene are presented at a range of distances and averaging times, and the corresponding cancer risks are discussed. Through reflection on the air quality response to the event, consideration of cancer and acute risks, and comparison to other tire fires, we recommend that all landfills with shredded tire liners plan for hazmat fire emergencies. A companion paper presents emission factors and detailed smoke characterization.

Development of a model to predict ash transport and water pollution risk in fire-affected environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neris, Jonay; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Robichaud, Peter R.

2017-04-01

An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

First application of the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion risk in fire-affected volcanic areas in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neris, Jonay; Robichaud, Peter R.; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Notario del Pino, Jesús S.; Lado, Marcos

2017-04-01

An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glasa, J.; Valasek, L.; Weisenpacher, P.; Halada, L.

2013-02-01

Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

Risk for large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2015-08-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on the number of large forest fires (over 10 ha fires) and burned area in Finland. For this purpose, we utilized a strong relationship between fire occurrence and the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) during 1996-2014. We used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. Our results also reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase in forest-fire danger. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is more important cause of fires.

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2016-01-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996-2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

Cost-benefit analysis of passive fire protections in road LPG transportation.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2012-02-01

The cost-benefit evaluation of passive fire protection adoption in the road transport of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was investigated. In a previous study, mathematical simulations of real scale fire scenarios proved the effectiveness of passive fire protections in preventing the "fired" boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), thus providing a significant risk reduction. In the present study the economical aspects of the adoption of fire protections are analyzed and an approach to cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is proposed. The CBA model is based on the comparison of the risk reduction due to fire protections (expressed in monetary terms by the value of a statistical life) and the cost of the application of fire protections to a fleet of tankers. Different types of fire protections were considered, as well as the possibility to apply protections to the entire fleet or only to a part of it. The application of the proposed model to a real-life case study is presented and discussed. Results demonstrate that the adoption of passive fire protections on road tankers, though not compulsory in Europe, can be economically feasible, thus representing a concrete measure to achieve control of the "major hazard accidents" cited by the European legislation. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Allocating resources to large wildland fires: a model with stochastic production rates

Treesearch

Romain Mees; David Strauss

1992-01-01

Wildland fires that grow out of the initial attack phase are responsible for most of the damage and burned area. We model the allocation of fire suppression resources (ground crews, engines, bulldozers, and airdrops) to these large fires. The fireline at a given future time is partitioned into homogeneous segments on the basis of fuel type, available resources, risk,...

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE PAGES

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; ...

2016-06-09

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

2016-06-01

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

Not Getting Burned: The Importance of Fire

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We extend existing stand-level models of forest landowner behavior in the presence of fire risk to include the level and timing of fuel management activities. These activities reduce losses if a stand ignites. Based on simulations, we find the standard result that fire risk reduces the optimal rotation age does not hold when landowners use fuel management. Instead,...

Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

Treesearch

Brian R Sturtevant; Brian R Miranda; Douglas J Shinneman; Eric J Gustafson; Peter T. Wolter

2012-01-01

Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to...

Effects of wildland fire smoke on a tree-roosting bat: integrating a plume model, field measurements, and mammalian dose-response relationships

Treesearch

M.B. Dickinson; J.C. Norris; A.S. Bova; R.L. Kremens; V. Young; M.J. Lacki

2010-01-01

Faunal injury and mortality in wildland fires is a concern for wildlife and fire management although little work has been done on the mechanisms by which exposures cause their effects. In this paper, we use an integral plume model, field measurements, and models of carbon monoxide and heat effects to explore risk to tree-roosting bats during prescribed fires in mixed-...

Development at the wildland-urban interface and the mitigation of forest-fire risk.

PubMed

Spyratos, Vassilis; Bourgeron, Patrick S; Ghil, Michael

2007-09-04

This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Trends in fire risk and burned area in Brazil in the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, P.; Bastos, A.; DaCamara, C.; Libonati, R.

2016-12-01

Fire has a significant contribution to the global greenhouse gas emissions and vast ecological and climatic impacts. Worldwide, Brazil is one of the areas most affected by fire, which highly influences the state of the vegetation cover, the ecological diversity of the region and has significant consequences to the global CO2 balance [1]. Hence, with the increasing evidence of human induced climate change, it becomes essential to understand the present and future trends of fire risk in Brazil. Although a large number of fires in Brazil are anthropogenic, it has been shown that the burned area is mainly controlled by meteorological conditions [2], therefore being partially determined by fire risk. In this study we use a fire danger index specifically tailored for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the MFDI developed by INPE, to assess the patterns and trends of fire risk in Brazil. The index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We test the sensitivity of the index to different climate reanalyses and evaluate the trends in fire risk in Brazil during the past four decades for different biomes. We further assess the link between the calculated fire risk and observed fire occurrence and burned area. Finally, we compare the results with fire risk simulated by a regional climate model (RCA4 forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX) in order to evaluate its suitability for future projections of fire risk and burned area. [1] Bowman, D. M. et al. Fire in the earth system. Science, v. 324, p. 481-484, 24 apr. 2009. [2] Libonati, R. et al. An Algorithm for Burned Area Detection in the Brazilian Cerrado Using 4 μm MODIS Imagery. Remote Sensing, v. 7, p. 15782-15803, 2015.

Combined Hydrologic (AGWA-KINEROS2) and Hydraulic (HEC2) Modeling for Post-Fire Runoff and Inundation Risk Assessment through a Set of Python Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, J. E.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, D. P.; Burns, I. S.

2016-12-01

Wildfires in the Western United States can alter landscapes by removing vegetation and changing soil properties. These altered landscapes produce more runoff than pre-fire landscapes which can lead to post-fire flooding that can damage infrastructure and impair natural resources. Resources, structures, historical artifacts and others that could be impacted by increased runoff are considered values at risk. .The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) allows users to quickly set up and execute the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion model (KINEROS2 or K2) in the ESRI ArcMap environment. The AGWA-K2 workflow leverages the visualization capabilities of GIS to facilitate evaluation of rapid watershed assessments for post-fire planning efforts. High relative change in peak discharge, as simulated by K2, provides a visual and numeric indicator to investigate those channels in the watershed that should be evaluated for more detailed analysis, especially if values at risk are within or near that channel. Modeling inundation extent along a channel would provide more specific guidance about risk along a channel. HEC-2 and HEC-RAS can be used for hydraulic modeling efforts at the reach and river system scale. These models have been used to address flood boundaries and, accordingly, flood risk. However, data collection and organization for hydraulic models can be time consuming and therefore a combined hydrologic-hydraulic modeling approach is not often employed for rapid assessments. A simplified approach could streamline this process and provide managers with a simple workflow and tool to perform a quick risk assessment for a single reach. By focusing on a single reach highlighted by large relative change in peak discharge, data collection efforts can be minimized and the hydraulic computations can be performed to supplement risk analysis. The incorporation of hydraulic analysis through a suite of Python tools (as outlined by HEC-2) with AGWA-K2 will allow more rapid applications of combined hydrologic-hydraulic modeling. This combined modeling approach is built in the ESRI ArcGIS application to enable rapid model preparation, execution and result visualization for risk assessment in post-fire environments.

FEES: design of a Fire Economics Evaluation System

Treesearch

Thomas J. Mills; Frederick W. Bratten

1982-01-01

The Fire Economics Evaluation System (FEES)--a simulation model--is being designed for long-term planning application by all public agencies with wildland fire management responsibilities. A fully operational version of FEES will be capable of estimating the economic efficiency, fire-induced changes in resource outputs, and risk characteristics of a range of fire...

Advanced risk assessment of the effects of graphite fibers on electronic and electric equipment, phase 1. [simulating vulnerability to airports and communities from fibers released during aircraft fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pocinki, L. S.; Kaplan, L. D.; Cornell, M. E.; Greenstone, R.

1979-01-01

A model was developed to generate quantitative estimates of the risk associated with the release of graphite fibers during fires involving commercial aircraft constructed with graphite fiber composite materials. The model was used to estimate the risk associated with accidents at several U.S. airports. These results were then combined to provide an estimate of the total risk to the nation.

Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Mark A. Finney

2009-01-01

Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of...

Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

Treesearch

Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

2016-01-01

Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

1980-01-01

The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Continental-scale simulation of burn probabilities, flame lengths, and fire size distribution for the United States

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac Grenfell; Karin L. Riley

2010-01-01

Components of a quantitative risk assessment were produced by simulation of burn probabilities and fire behavior variation for 134 fire planning units (FPUs) across the continental U.S. The system uses fire growth simulation of ignitions modeled from relationships between large fire occurrence and the fire danger index Energy Release Component (ERC). Simulations of 10,...

Application of wildfire simulation methods to assess wildfire exposure in a Mediterranean fire-prone area (Sardinia, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, M.; Ager, A.; Arca, B.; Finney, M.; Bacciu, V. M.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

2012-12-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of fire spread and behavior are dependent on interactions among climate, topography, vegetation and fire suppression efforts (Pyne et al. 1996; Viegas 2006; Falk et al. 2007). Humans also play a key role in determining frequency and spatial distribution of ignitions (Bar Massada et al, 2011), and thus influence fire regimes as well. The growing incidence of catastrophic wildfires has led to substantial losses for important ecological and human values within many areas of the Mediterranean basin (Moreno et al. 1998; Mouillot et al. 2005; Viegas et al. 2006a; Riaño et al. 2007). The growing fire risk issue has led to many new programs and policies of fuel management and risk mitigation by environmental and fire agencies. However, risk-based methodologies to help identify areas characterized by high potential losses and prioritize fuel management have been lacking for the region. Formal risk assessment requires the joint consideration of likelihood, intensity, and susceptibility, the product of which estimates the chance of a specific loss (Brillinger 2003; Society of Risk Analysis, 2006). Quantifying fire risk therefore requires estimates of a) the probability of a specific location burning at a specific intensity and location, and b) the resulting change in financial or ecological value (Finney 2005; Scott 2006). When large fires are the primary cause of damage, the application of this risk formulation requires modeling fire spread to capture landscape properties that affect burn probability. Recently, the incorporation of large fire spread into risk assessment systems has become feasible with the development of high performance fire simulation systems (Finney et al. 2011) that permit the simulation of hundreds of thousands of fires to generate fine scale maps of burn probability, flame length, and fire size, while considering the combined effects of weather, fuels, and topography (Finney 2002; Andrews et al. 2007; Ager and Finney 2009; Finney et al. 2009; Salis et al. 2012 accepted). In this work, we employed wildfire simulation methods to quantify wildfire exposure to human and ecological values for the island of Sardinia, Italy. The work was focused on the risk and exposure posed by large fires (e.g. 100 - 10,000 ha), and considers historical weather, ignition patterns and fuels. We simulated 100,000 fires using burn periods that replicated the historical size distribution on the Island, and an ignition probability grid derived from historic ignition data. We then examine spatial variation in three exposure components (burn probability, flame length, fire size) among important human and ecological values. The results allowed us to contract exposure among and within the various features examined, and highlighted the importance of human factors in shaping wildfire exposure in Sardinia. The work represents the first application of burn probability modeling in the Mediterranean region, and sets the stage for expanded work in the region to quantify risk from large fires

Influence of fuels, weather and the built environment on the exposure of property to wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penman, Trent D.; Collins, Luke S.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2014-01-01

Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment – either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates.

Influence of Fuels, Weather and the Built Environment on the Exposure of Property to Wildfire

PubMed Central

Penman, Trent D.; Collins, Luke; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2014-01-01

Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment – either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates. PMID:25360741

Modelling leaf, plant and stand flammability for ecological and operational decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zylstra, Philip

2014-05-01

Numerous factors have been found to affect the flammability of individual leaves and plant parts; however the way in which these factors relate to whole plant flammability, fire behaviour and the overall risk imposed by fire is not straightforward. Similarly, although the structure of plant communities is known to affect the flammability of the stand, a quantified, broadly applicable link has proven difficult to establish and validate. These knowledge gaps have presented major obstacles to the integration into fire behaviour science of research into factors affecting plant flammability, physiology, species succession and structural change, so that the management of ecosystems for fire risk is largely uninformed by these fields. The Forest Flammability Model (Zylstra, 2011) is a process-driven, complex systems model developed specifically to address this disconnect. Flame dimensions and position are calculated as properties emerging from the capacity for convective heat to propagate flame between horizontally and vertically separated leaves, branches, plants and plant strata, and this capacity is determined dynamically from the ignitability, combustibility and sustainability of those objects, their spatial arrangement and a vector-based model of the plume temperature from each burning fuel. All flammability properties as well as the physics of flame dimensions, angle and temperature distributions and the vertical structure of wind within the plant array use published sub-models which can be replaced as further work is developed. This modular structure provides a platform for the immediate application of new work on any aspect of leaf flammability or fire physics. Initial validation of the model examined its qualitative predictions for trends in forest flammability as a function of time since fire. The positive feedback predicted for the subalpine forest examined constituted a 'risky prediction' by running counter to the expectations of the existing approach, however examination of historical fire sizes confirmed the positive feedback (Zylstra, 2013). The capacity to model even counter-intuitive trends in flammability represents a fundamental advance in the management of fire risk, underpinning the importance of work on those fields that compose the sub-models. Ongoing validation work has focused on accuracy in flame height and fire severity prediction, with excellent results to date. Further studies will examine quantitative estimates of fire risk parameters and the reliability of rate of spread predictions. By accurately modelling the relationship between seemingly disparate studies of leaf flammability, moisture, physiology and forest structure, the Forest Flammability Model has the potential to resolve some long-standing questions (Yebra et al., 2013) as well as to provide insight into the effect of climate or management-induced ecosystem changes on fire behaviour and risk. References Yebra, M., Dennison, P. E., Chuvieco, E., Riaño, D., Zylstra, P., Hunt, E. R., … Jurdao, S. (2013). A global review of remote sensing of live fuel moisture content for fire danger assessment: Moving towards operational products. Remote Sensing of Environment, 136, 455-468. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2013.05.029 Zylstra, P. (2011). Forest Flammability: Modelling and Managing a Complex System. PhD Thesis, University of NSW @ ADFA. Retrieved from http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/51656 Zylstra, P. (2013). The historical influence of fire on the flammability of subalpine Snowgum forest and woodland. Victorian Naturalist, 130(6), 232-239.

Structural fire risk of Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário

2017-04-01

Portugal is on the top of the European countries most affected by vegetation fires which underlines the importance of the existence of an updated and coherent fire risk map. This map represent a valuable supporting tool for forest and fire management decisions, focus prevention activities, improve the efficiency of fire detection systems, manage resources and actions of fire fighting with greater effectiveness. Therefore this study proposed a structural fire risk map of the vegetated area of Portugal using a deterministic approach based on the concept of fire risk currently accepted by the scientific community which consists in the combination of the fire hazard and the potential economic damage. The existing fire susceptibility map for Portugal based on the slope, land cover and fire probability, was adopted and updated by the use of a higher resolution digital terrain model, longer burnt area perimeter dataset (1975 - 2013) and the entire set of Corine land cover inventories. Five susceptibility classes were mapped to be in accordance with the Portuguese law and the results confirms the good performance of this model not only in terms of the favourability scores but also in the predictive values. Considering three different scenarios of (maximum, mean, and minimum annual) burnt area, fire hazard were estimate. The vulnerability scores and monetary values of species defined in the literature and by law were used to calculate the potential economic damage. The result was a fire risk map that identifies the areas more prone to be affected by fires in the future and provides an estimate of the economic damage of the fire which will be a valuable tool for forest and fire managers and to minimize the economic and environmental consequences of vegetation fires in Portugal. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; (ii) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF and ISA for providing the fire data.

Fires in storages of LFO: Analysis of hazard of structural collapse of steel-aluminium containers.

PubMed

Rebec, A; Kolšek, J; Plešec, P

2016-04-05

Pool fires of light fuel oil (LFO) in above-ground storages with steel-aluminium containers are discussed. A model is developed for assessments of risks of between-tank fire spread. Radiative effects of the flame body are accounted for by a solid flame radiation model. Thermal profiles evolved due to fire in the adjacent tanks and their consequential structural response is pursued in an exact (materially and geometrically non-linear) manner. The model's derivation is demonstrated on the LFO tank storage located near the Port of Koper (Slovenia). In support of the model, data from literature are adopted where appropriate. Analytical expressions are derived correspondingly for calculations of emissive characteristics of LFO pool fires. Additional data are collected from experiments. Fire experiments conducted on 300cm diameter LFO pans and at different wind speeds and high-temperature uniaxial tension tests of the analysed aluminium alloys types 3xxx and 6xxx are presented. The model is of an immediate fire engineering practical value (risk analyses) or can be used for further research purposes (e.g. sensitivity and parametric studies). The latter use is demonstrated in the final part of the paper discussing possible effects of high-temperature creep of 3xxx aluminium. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A study on fire spreading model for the safety distance between the neighborhood occupancies and historical buildings in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. H.; Chien, S. W.; Ho, M. C.

2015-08-01

Cultural heritages and historical buildings are vulnerable against severe threats from fire. Since the 1970s, ten fire-spread events involving historic buildings have occurred in Taiwan, affecting a total of 132 nearby buildings. Developed under the influence of traditional Taiwanese culture, historic buildings in Taiwan are often built using non-fire resistant brick-wood structure and located in proximity to residential occupancies. Fire outbreak in these types of neighborhood will lead to severe damage of antiquities, leaving only unrecoverable historical imagery. This study is aimed to investigate the minimal safety distance required between a historical building and its surroundings in order to reduce the risk of external fire. This study is based on literature analysis and the fire spread model using a Fire Dynamics Simulator. The selected target is Jingmei Temple in Taipei City. This study explored local geography to identify patterns behind historical buildings distribution. In the past, risk reduction engineering for cultural heritages and historical buildings focused mainly on fire equipment and the available personnel with emergency response ability, and little attention was given to external fire risks and the affected damage. Through discussions on the required safety distance, this research provides guidelines for the following items: management of neighborhoods with historical buildings and consultation between the protection of cultural heritages and disaster prevention, reducing the frequency and extent of fire damages, and preserving cultural resource.

Assessment of multi-wildfire occurrence data for machine learning based risk modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, C. H.; Kim, M.; Kim, S. J.; Yoo, S.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

The occurrence of East Asian wildfires is mainly caused by human-activities, but the extreme drought increased due to the climate change caused wildfires and they spread to large-scale fires. Accurate occurrence location data is required for modelling wildfire probability and risk. In South Korea, occurrence data surveyed through KFS (Korea Forest Service) and MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite-based active fire data can be utilized. In this study, two sorts of wildfire occurrence data were applied to select suitable occurrence data for machine learning based wildfire risk modelling. MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model based on machine learning is used for wildfire risk modelling, and two types of occurrence data and socio-economic and climate-environment data are applied to modelling. In the results with KFS survey based data, the low relationship was shown with climate-environmental factors, and the uncertainty of coordinate information appeared. The MODIS-based active fire data were found outside the forests, and there were a lot of spots that did not match the actual wildfires. In order to utilize MODIS-based active fire data, it was necessary to extract forest area and utilize only high-confidence level data. In KFS data, it was necessary to separate the analysis according to the damage scale to improve the modelling accuracy. Ultimately, it is considered to be the best way to simulate the wildfire risk by constructing more accurate information by combining two sorts of wildfire occurrence data.

Modeling and risk assessment for soil temperatures beneath prescribed forest fires

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Sally M. Haase; Stephen S. Sackett

2000-01-01

Prescribed fire is a management tool used by wildland resource management organizations in many ecosystems to reduce hazardous fuels and to achieve a host of other objectives. To study the effects of fire in naturally accumulating fuel conditions, the ambient soil temperature is monitored beneath prescribed burns. In this study we developed a stochastic model for...

Examining the relative effects of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatment on fire behaviour--a simulation study.

PubMed

Penman, T D; Collins, L; Price, O F; Bradstock, R A; Metcalf, S; Chong, D M O

2013-12-15

Large budgets are spent on both suppression and fuel treatments in order to reduce the risk of wildfires. There is little evidence regarding the relative contribution of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfires. Here we undertake a simulation study in the Sydney Basin, Australia, to examine this question using a fire behaviour model (Phoenix Rapidfire). Results of the study indicate that fire behaviour is most strongly influenced by fire weather. Suppression has a greater influence on whether a fire reaches 5 ha in size compared to fuel treatments. In contrast, fuel treatments have a stronger effect on the fire size and maximum distance the fire travels. The study suggests that fire management agencies will receive additional benefits from fuel treatment if they are located in areas which suppression resources can respond rapidly and attempt to contain the fires. No combination of treatments contained all fires, and the proportion of uncontained fires increased under more severe fire weather when the greatest number of properties are lost. Our study highlights the importance of alternative management strategies to reduce the risk of property loss. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating spatially explicit burn probabilities for strategic fire management planning

Treesearch

C. Miller; M.-A. Parisien; A. A. Ager; M. A. Finney

2008-01-01

Spatially explicit information on the probability of burning is necessary for virtually all strategic fire and fuels management planning activities, including conducting wildland fire risk assessments, optimizing fuel treatments, and prevention planning. Predictive models providing a reliable estimate of the annual likelihood of fire at each point on the landscape have...

Assessing wildland fire risk transmission to communities in northern Spain

Treesearch

Fermín J. Alcasena; Michele Salis; Alan A. Ager; Rafael Castell; Cristina Vega-García

2017-01-01

We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain). Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306) in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert...

Compressed natural gas bus safety: a quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Samuel; Modarres, Mohammad

2005-04-01

This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel-fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel-powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100-million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100-million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100-million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to fire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 x 10(-5) fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 x 10(-6) and 4.0 x 10(-5), respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping.

Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2009-08-15

The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements model. The results of mathematical simulations of real scale fire engulfment scenarios that may follow accidents involving LPG tankers proved the effectiveness of the thermal protections in preventing the "fired" BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion) scenario. The presence of a thermal coating greatly increases the "time to failure", providing a time lapse that in the European experience may be considered sufficient to allow the start of effective mitigation actions by fire brigades. The results obtained were used to calculate the expected reduction of individual and societal risk due to LPG transportation in real case scenarios. The analysis confirmed that the introduction of passive fire protections turns out in a significant reduction of risk, up to an order of magnitude in the case of individual risk and of about 50% if the expectation value is considered. Thus, the adoption of passive fire protections, not compulsory in European regulations, may be an effective technical measure for risk reduction, and may contribute to achieve the control of "major accidents hazards" cited by the European legislation.

Simulating forest fuel and fire risk dynamics across landscapes--LANDIS fuel module design

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Bo Z. Shang; Thomas R. Crow; Eric J. Gustafson; Stephen R. Shifley

2004-01-01

Understanding fuel dynamics over large spatial (103-106 ha) and temporal scales (101-103 years) is important in comprehensive wildfire management. We present a modeling approach to simulate fuel and fire risk dynamics as well as impacts of alternative fuel treatments. The...

Adding Fuel to the Fire: The Impacts of Non-Native Grass Invasion on Fire Management at a Regional Scale

PubMed Central

Setterfield, Samantha A.; Rossiter-Rachor, Natalie A.; Douglas, Michael M.; Wainger, Lisa; Petty, Aaron M.; Barrow, Piers; Shepherd, Ian J.; Ferdinands, Keith B.

2013-01-01

Background Widespread invasion by non-native plants has resulted in substantial change in fire-fuel characteristics and fire-behaviour in many of the world's ecosystems, with a subsequent increase in the risk of fire damage to human life, property and the environment. Models used by fire management agencies to assess fire risk are dependent on accurate assessments of fuel characteristics but there is little evidence that they have been modified to reflect landscape-scale invasions. There is also a paucity of information documenting other changes in fire management activities that have occurred to mitigate changed fire regimes. This represents an important limitation in information for both fire and weed risk management. Methodology/Principal Findings We undertook an aerial survey to estimate changes to landscape fuel loads in northern Australia resulting from invasion by Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass). Fuel load within the most densely invaded area had increased from 6 to 10 t ha−1 in the past two decades. Assessment of the effect of calculating the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) for the 2008 and 2009 fire seasons demonstrated that an increase from 6 to 10 t ha−1 resulted in an increase from five to 38 days with fire risk in the ‘severe’ category in 2008 and from 11 to 67 days in 2009. The season of severe fire weather increased by six weeks. Our assessment of the effect of increased fuel load on fire management practices showed that fire management costs in the region have increased markedly (∼9 times) in the past decade due primarily to A. gayanus invasion. Conclusions/Significance This study demonstrated the high economic cost of mitigating fire impacts of an invasive grass. This study demonstrates the need to quantify direct and indirect invasion costs to assess the risk of further invasion and to appropriately fund fire and weed management strategies. PMID:23690917

Adding fuel to the fire: the impacts of non-native grass invasion on fire management at a regional scale.

PubMed

Setterfield, Samantha A; Rossiter-Rachor, Natalie A; Douglas, Michael M; Wainger, Lisa; Petty, Aaron M; Barrow, Piers; Shepherd, Ian J; Ferdinands, Keith B

2013-01-01

Widespread invasion by non-native plants has resulted in substantial change in fire-fuel characteristics and fire-behaviour in many of the world's ecosystems, with a subsequent increase in the risk of fire damage to human life, property and the environment. Models used by fire management agencies to assess fire risk are dependent on accurate assessments of fuel characteristics but there is little evidence that they have been modified to reflect landscape-scale invasions. There is also a paucity of information documenting other changes in fire management activities that have occurred to mitigate changed fire regimes. This represents an important limitation in information for both fire and weed risk management. We undertook an aerial survey to estimate changes to landscape fuel loads in northern Australia resulting from invasion by Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass). Fuel load within the most densely invaded area had increased from 6 to 10 t ha(-1) in the past two decades. Assessment of the effect of calculating the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) for the 2008 and 2009 fire seasons demonstrated that an increase from 6 to 10 t ha(-1) resulted in an increase from five to 38 days with fire risk in the 'severe' category in 2008 and from 11 to 67 days in 2009. The season of severe fire weather increased by six weeks. Our assessment of the effect of increased fuel load on fire management practices showed that fire management costs in the region have increased markedly (∼9 times) in the past decade due primarily to A. gayanus invasion. This study demonstrated the high economic cost of mitigating fire impacts of an invasive grass. This study demonstrates the need to quantify direct and indirect invasion costs to assess the risk of further invasion and to appropriately fund fire and weed management strategies.

Findings of a review of spacecraft fire safety needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G. E.; Catton, I.; Paulos, T.; Paxton, K.; Jones, S.

1992-01-01

Discussions from a workshop to guide UCLA and NASA investigators on the state of knowledge and perceived needs in spacecraft fire safety and its risk management are reviewed, for an introduction to an analytical and experimental project in this field. The report summarizes the workshop discussions and includes the visual aids used in the presentations. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods, which are currently not used, would be of great value to the designs and operation of future human-crew spacecraft. Key points in the discussions were the importance of understanding and testing smoldering as a likely fire scenario in space and the need for smoke damage modeling, since many fire-risk models ignore this mechanism and consider only heat damage.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, Dave E

2011-08-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation.

PubMed

Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira; Nepstad, Daniel; Coe, Michael; Rodrigues, Hermann; Assunção, Renato

2011-07-01

Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems, the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the future. Here we present a probabilistic model of human-induced fire occurrence for the Amazon that integrates the effects of a series of anthropogenic factors with climatic conditions described by vapor pressure deficit. The model was calibrated using NOAA-12 night satellite hot pixels for 2003 and validated for the years 2002, 2004, and 2005. Assessment of the fire risk map yielded fitness values > 85% for all months from 2002 to 2005. Simulated fires exhibited high overlap with NOAA-12 hot pixels regarding both spatial and temporal distributions, showing a spatial fit of 50% within a radius of 11 km and a maximum yearly frequency deviation of 15%. We applied this model to simulate fire regimes in the Amazon until 2050 using IPCC's A2 scenario climate data from the Hadley Centre model and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of deforestation and road expansion from SimAmazonia. Results show that the combination of these scenarios may double forest fire occurrence outside protected areas (PAs) in years of extreme drought, expanding the risk of fire even to the northwestern Amazon by midcentury. In particular, forest fires may increase substantially across southern and southwestern Amazon, especially along the highways slated for paving and in agricultural zones. Committed emissions from Amazon forest fires and deforestation under a scenario of global warming and uncurbed deforestation may amount to 21 +/- 4 Pg of carbon by 2050. BAU deforestation may increase fires occurrence outside PAs by 19% over the next four decades, while climate change alone may account for a 12% increase. In turn, the combination of climate change and deforestation would boost fire occurrence outside PAs by half during this period. Our modeling results, therefore, confirm the synergy between the two Ds of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries).

Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) user manual (version 2006.01.18)

Treesearch

Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Fredrick B. Pierson; David E. Hall; Corey A. Moffet; Louise E. Ashmun

2007-01-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective post-fire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. To aid in this assessment, the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed. This user manual describes the input parameters, input interface, model...

A spatial stochastic programming model for timber and core area management under risk of fires

Treesearch

Yu Wei; Michael Bevers; Dung Nguyen; Erin Belval

2014-01-01

Previous stochastic models in harvest scheduling seldom address explicit spatial management concerns under the influence of natural disturbances. We employ multistage stochastic programming models to explore the challenges and advantages of building spatial optimization models that account for the influences of random stand-replacing fires. Our exploratory test models...

Risk-Based Fire Safety Experiment Definition for Manned Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G. E.; Ho, V. S.; Marcus, E.; Perry, A. T.; Thompson, S. L.

1989-01-01

Risk methodology is used to define experiments to be conducted in space which will help to construct and test the models required for accident sequence identification. The development of accident scenarios is based on the realization that whether damage occurs depends on the time competition of two processes: the ignition and creation of an adverse environment, and the detection and suppression activities. If the fire grows and causes damage faster than it is detected and suppressed, then an accident occurred. The proposed integrated experiments will provide information on individual models that apply to each of the above processes, as well as previously unidentified interactions and processes, if any. Initially, models that are used in terrestrial fire risk assessments are considered. These include heat and smoke release models, detection and suppression models, as well as damage models. In cases where the absence of gravity substantially invalidates a model, alternate models will be developed. Models that depend on buoyancy effects, such as the multizone compartment fire models, are included in these cases. The experiments will be performed in a variety of geometries simulating habitable areas, racks, and other spaces. These simulations will necessitate theoretical studies of scaling effects. Sensitivity studies will also be carried out including the effects of varying oxygen concentrations, pressures, fuel orientation and geometry, and air flow rates. The experimental apparatus described herein includes three major modules: the combustion, the fluids, and the command and power modules.

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements.

PubMed

Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

2017-02-01

Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

Modern Approaches to Wildfire Mitigation by Air and by Ground: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffin, J.; Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.; Wuerzer, T.; Lawless, B.; McCoy, J.

2013-12-01

In 2012, 1.7 million acres of land burned in Idaho--more than any other state. Boise, Idaho, is situated at the base of the Boise Foothills; this physiographic setting places the area at risk of not only fires along on the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), but also at risk for post-fire floods and debris flows in the lower lying neighborhoods adjacent to steep hillslopes. In 1959 and 1994, fires and post-fire debris flows devastated areas of the foothills, and inundated residences with water and mud. Anthropogenically-induced climate change is projected to increased summer temperatures and decrease summer precipitation; the associated increase in fire risk necessitates enhanced wildfire planning in Boise's WUI. Temporal uncertainty with varying weather and vegetation conditions poses problems in defining wildfire risk and requires new methods to address the WUI challenges. Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) could identify and characterize fire hazards to be mapped and used as a management tool. This technology would allow for repeat flights to update risk analysis as the hazards change both annually and multiple times within each fire season. With aerial photography obtained from flights, Structure from Motion software can be used to compile the images and render a 3D model to help quantify biomass. Aerial photographs would also allow for the ability to track seasonal changes in fire risk from vegetation height and inferred moisture content. Boise State University's departments of Geoscience, Community and Regional Planning, and the Public Policy Center are examining the risks and impacts of fire along the Boise WUI. The research integrates the perspectives of the geosciences and social sciences by combining physically-based fire hazards, effective fire management policies, and urban/regional planning in the WUI to provide better spatially-appropriate data and resources to the community and a common reference to assist in unifying the local efforts for fire mitigation. This presentation will introduce findings from a homeowner's survey of potentially at-risk residents regarding their perceptions of risk and uncertainty and their receptiveness to local mitigation, adaptation policies, and alternatives.

Integrated Spatial Models of Non Native Plant Invasion, Fire Risk, and Wildlife Habitat to Support Conservation of Military and Adjacent Lands in the Arid Southwest

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

FINAL REPORT Integrated spatial models of non-native plant invasion, fire risk, and wildlife habitat to support conservation of military and...as reflecting the official policy or position of the Department of Defense. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service...2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 26/4/2010 – 25/10/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Integrated Spatial Models of Non-Native Plant

Developing models to predict the number of fire hotspots from an accumulated fuel dryness index by vegetation type and region in Mexico

Treesearch

D. Vega-Nieva; J. Briseño-Reyes; M. Nava-Miranda; E. Calleros-Flores; P. López-Serrano; J. Corral-Rivas; E. Montiel-Antuna; M. Cruz-López; M. Cuahutle; R. Ressl; E. Alvarado-Celestino; A. González-Cabán; E. Jiménez; J. Álvarez-González; A. Ruiz-González; R. Burgan; H. Preisler

2018-01-01

Understanding the linkage between accumulated fuel dryness and temporal fire occurrence risk is key for improving decision-making in forest fire management, especially under growing conditions of vegetation stress associated with climate change. This study addresses the development of models to predict the number of 10-day observed Moderate-Resolution Imaging...

Review of methods for developing regional probabilistic risk assessments, part 2: modeling invasive plant, insect, and pathogen species

Treesearch

P. B. Woodbury; D. A. Weinstein

2010-01-01

We reviewed probabilistic regional risk assessment methodologies to identify the methods that are currently in use and are capable of estimating threats to ecosystems from fire and fuels, invasive species, and their interactions with stressors. In a companion chapter, we highlight methods useful for evaluating risks from fire. In this chapter, we highlight methods...

Mortality due to Vegetation Fire-Originated PM2.5 Exposure in Europe-Assessment for the Years 2005 and 2008.

PubMed

Kollanus, Virpi; Prank, Marje; Gens, Alexandra; Soares, Joana; Vira, Julius; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Sofiev, Mikhail; Salonen, Raimo O; Lanki, Timo

2017-01-01

Vegetation fires can release substantial quantities of fine particles (PM2.5), which are harmful to health. The fire smoke may be transported over long distances and can cause adverse health effects over wide areas. We aimed to assess annual mortality attributable to short-term exposures to vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in different regions of Europe. PM2.5 emissions from vegetation fires in Europe in 2005 and 2008 were evaluated based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data on fire radiative power. Atmospheric transport of the emissions was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) chemical transport model. Mortality impacts were estimated for 27 European countries based on a) modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations and b) population data, both presented in a 50 × 50 km2 spatial grid; c) an exposure-response function for short-term PM2.5 exposure and daily nonaccidental mortality; and d) country-level data for background mortality risk. In the 27 countries overall, an estimated 1,483 and 1,080 premature deaths were attributable to the vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Estimated impacts were highest in southern and eastern Europe. However, all countries were affected by fire-originated PM2.5, and even the lower concentrations in western and northern Europe contributed substantially (~ 30%) to the overall estimate of attributable mortality. Our assessment suggests that air pollution caused by PM2.5 released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health in Europe. Moreover, the risk can be expected to increase in the future as climate change proceeds. This factor should be taken into consideration when evaluating the overall health and socioeconomic impacts of these fires. Citation: Kollanus V, Prank M, Gens A, Soares J, Vira J, Kukkonen J, Sofiev M, Salonen RO, Lanki T. 2017. Mortality due to vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 exposure in Europe-assessment for the years 2005 and 2008. Environ Health Perspect 125:30-37; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP194.

Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture to Estimate Fire Risk in Tropical Peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadap, N.; Cobb, A.; Hoyt, A.; Harvey, C. F.; Konings, A. G.

2017-12-01

Tropical peatlands in Equatorial Asia have become more vulnerable to fire due to deforestation and peatland drainage over the last 30 years. In these regions, water table depth has been shown to play an important role in mediating fire risk as it serves as a proxy for peat moisture content. However, water table depth observations are sparse and expensive. Soil moisture could provide a more direct indicator of fire risk than water table depth. In this study, we use new soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite to demonstrate that - contrary to popular wisdom - remotely sensed soil moisture observations are possible over most Southeast Asian peatlands. Soil moisture estimation in this region was previously thought to be impossible over tropical peatlands because of dense vegetation cover. We show that vegetation density is sufficiently low across most Equatorial Asian peatlands to allow soil moisture estimation, and hypothesize that deforestation and other anthropogenic changes in land cover have combined to reduce overall vegetation density sufficient to allow soil moisture estimation. We further combine burned area estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database and SMAP soil moisture retrievals to show that soil moisture provides a strong signal for fire risk in peatlands, with fires occurring at a much greater rate over drier soils. We will also develop an explicit fire risk model incorporating soil moisture with additional climatic, land cover, and anthropogenic predictor variables.

Use of fire spread and hydrology models to target forest management on a municipal watershed

Treesearch

Anurag Srivastava; William J. Elliot; Joan Wu

2015-01-01

A small town relies on a forested watershed for its water supply. The forest is at risk for a wildfire. To reduce this risk, some of the watershed will be thinned followed by a prescribed burn. This paper reports on a study to evaluate the impact of such watershed disturbances on water yield. To target management activities, a fire spread model was applied to the...

Modeling the Risk of Fire/Explosion Due to Oxidizer/Fuel Leaks in the Ares I Interstage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ring, Robert W.; Stott, James E.; Hales, Christy

2008-01-01

A significant flight hazard associated with liquid propellants, such as those used in the upper stage of NASA's new Ares I launch vehicle, is the possibility of leakage of hazardous fluids resulting in a catastrophic fire/explosion. The enclosed and vented interstage of the Ares I contains numerous oxidizer and fuel supply lines as well as ignition sources. The potential for fire/explosion due to leaks during ascent depends on the relative concentrations of hazardous and inert fluids within the interstage along with other variables such as pressure, temperature, leak rates, and fluid outgasing rates. This analysis improves on previous NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) estimates of the probability of deflagration, in which many of the variables pertinent to the problem were not explicitly modeled as a function of time. This paper presents the modeling methodology developed to analyze these risks.

Using GRACE-Derived Water and Moisture Products as a Predictive Tool for Fire Response in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousseau, N. J.; Jensen, D.; Zajic, B.; Rodell, M.; Reager, J. T., II

2015-12-01

Understanding the relationship between wildfire activity and soil moisture in the United States has been difficult to assess, with limited ability to determine areas that are at high risk. This limitation is largely due to complex environmental factors at play, especially as they relate to alternating periods of wet and dry conditions, and the lack of remotely-sensed products. Recent drought conditions and accompanying low Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) have led to disastrous wildfire outbreaks causing economic loss, property damage, and environmental degradation. Thus, developing a programmed toolset to assess the relationship between soil moisture, which contributes greatly to FMC and fire severity, can establish the framework for determining overall wildfire risk. To properly evaluate these parameters, we used data assimilated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and data from the Fire Program Analysis fire-occurrence database (FPA FOD) to determine the extent soil moisture affects fire activity. Through these datasets, we produced correlation and regression maps at a coarse resolution of 0.25 degrees for the contiguous United States. These fire-risk products and toolsets proved the viability of this methodology, allowing for the future incorporation of more GRACE-derived water parameters, MODIS vegetation indices, and other environmental datasets to refine the model for fire risk. Additionally, they will allow assessment to national-scale early fire management and provide responders with a predictive tool to better employ early decision-support to areas of high risk during regions' respective fire season(s).

Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

PubMed

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

Modelling the Meteorological Forest Fire Niche in Heterogeneous Pyrologic Conditions

PubMed Central

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition. PMID:25679957

A cellular automaton model of wildfire propagation and extinction

Treesearch

Keith C. Clarke; James A. Brass; Phillip J. Riggan

1994-01-01

We propose a new model to predict the spatial and temporal behavior of wildfires. Fire spread and intensity were simulated using a cellular automaton model. Monte Carlo techniques were used to provide fire risk probabilities for areas where fuel loadings and topography are known. The model assumes predetermined or measurable environmental variables such as wind...

Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, A.; Finney, M.

2009-04-01

Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and intensity maps over large areas (10,000 - 2,000,000 ha). The MTT algorithm is parallelized for multi-threaded processing and is imbedded in a number of research and applied fire modeling applications. High performance computers (e.g., 32-way 64 bit SMP) are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the 32 bit desktop FlamMap3 program (www.fire.org). Extensive testing has shown that this algorithm can replicate large fire boundaries in the heterogeneous landscapes that typify much of the wildlands in the western U.S. In this paper, we describe the application of the MTT algorithm to understand spatial patterns of burn probability (BP), and to analyze wildfire risk to key human and ecological values. The work is focused on a federally-managed 2,000,000 ha landscape in the central interior region of Oregon State, USA. The fire-prone study area encompasses a wide array of topography and fuel types and a number of highly valued resources that are susceptible to fire. We quantitatively defined risk as the product of the probability of a fire and the resulting consequence. Burn probabilities at specific intensity classes were estimated for each 100 x 100 m pixel by simulating 100,000 wildfires under burn conditions that replicated recent severe wildfire events that occurred under conditions where fire suppression was generally ineffective (97th percentile, August weather). We repeated the simulation under milder weather (70th percentile, August weather) to replicate a "wildland fire use scenario" where suppression is minimized to manage fires for fuel reduction. The average BP was calculated for these scenarios to examine variation within and among a number of key designated management units, including forest-urban interface, conservation areas, protected species habitat, municipal watersheds, recreation areas, and others. To quantify risk, we developed a number of loss-benefit functions using fire effects models that relate fire intensity to tree mortality and biomass consumption. We used these relationships to measure the change in highly-valued old forest, designated wildlife conservation areas, aboveground carbon, surface fuels, and other wildland values. The loss-benefit functions were then coupled with BP's for different intensity classes to estimate expected value change (risk) for each pixel. For a subset of the study area we also measured the change in risk from fuels management for selected resources. Estimates of BP, excluding non burnable fuels (water, rock), fro the simulations ranged from 0.00001 to 0.026 within the study area, with a mean value of 0.007. In comparison, the annual burn probability estimated from fire occurrence data within the study area (1910 - 2003) was 0.0022. The estimate from simulations represents the average probability of a random pixel burning from a single large fire that escapes suppression, hence some difference is expected. Variation in BP among designated conservation and fire protection units was relatively large and illustrated spatial differences in wildfire likelihood among highly values resources. For instance, among the 130 different forest-urban interface areas, average BP varied from 0.0001 to 0.02. Average BP for nesting sites used by the endangered Northern spotted owl averaged 0.04 and varied from 0.001 to 0.01. The marginal BP's for high fire intensities was higher for many of the conservation areas compared the surrounding managed forest. Conservation areas that were located on the lee side of non-burnable fuels such as lava flows and lakes showed markedly reduced BP. When wildfire probabilities were combined with habitat loss functions for the Northern spotted owl, we observed expected loss from a random wildfire event ranging from 0.0 to 9.4% with a mean value of 1.5%. Expected loss was strongly correlated with BP for owl habitat, apparently because fires at very low intensities caused understory mortality and reduced stand canopy closure below minimum levels. The effect of simulating strategic fuel treatments on a subunit of the area resulted in significant decrease in expected loss of owl habitat. The effect of changing weather from a severe to mild (97th to 70th) percentile weather resulted in a dramatic 8-fold drop in BP and reduced the average wildfire size. However, the reduction was not uniform with the departures well correlated with specific fuel models. In total, this work demonstrated the application of wildfire spread models to quantitative risk assessment for fuels management on federally-managed lands in the U.S. The analyses revealed spatial variation in BP that is useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and guiding other wildfire mitigation activities. The work also illuminated the conflict between biodiversity conservation efforts on federally-managed lands and the high wildfire risk on fire-prone landscapes.

Surgical fires in laser laryngeal surgery: are we safe enough?

PubMed

Roy, Soham; Smith, Lee P

2015-01-01

Laser surgery of the larynx and airway remains high risk for the formation of operating room fire. Traditional methods of fire prevention have included use of "laser safe" tubes, inflation of a protective cuff with saline, and wet pledgets to protect the endotracheal tube from laser strikes. We tested a mechanical model of laser laryngeal surgery to evaluate the fire risk. Mechanical model. Laboratory. An intubation mannequin was positioned for suspension microlaryngoscopy. A Laser-Shield II cuffed endotracheal tube was placed through the larynx and the cuff inflated using saline. Wet pledgets covered the inflated cuff. A CO2 laser created an inadvertent cuff strike at varying oxygen concentrations. Risk reduction measures were implemented to discern any notable change in the outcome after fire. At 100% FiO2 an immediate fire with sustained flame was created and at 40% FiO2 a near immediate sustained flame was created. At 29% FiO2, a small nonsustained flame was noted. At room air, no fire was created. There was no discernible difference in the severity of laryngeal damage after the fire occurred whether the tube was immediately pulled from the mannequin or if saline was poured down the airway as a first response. While "laser safe" tubes provide a layer of protection against fires, they are not fire proof. Inadvertent cuff perforation may result in fire formation in low-level oxygen enriched environments. Placement of wet pledgets do not provide absolute protection. Endotracheal tube (ETT) cuffs should be placed distally well away from an inadvertent laser strike while maintaining the minimum supplemental oxygen necessary. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2014.

Wildfire Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M.; Calkin, D. E.; Hand, M. S.; Kreitler, J.

2014-12-01

In this presentation we address federal wildfire risk management largely through the lens of economics, targeting questions related to costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and tradeoffs. Beyond risks to resources and assets such as wildlife habitat, watersheds, and homes, wildfires present financial risk and budgetary instability for federal wildfire management agencies due to highly variable annual suppression costs. Despite its variability, the costs of wildfire management have continued to escalate and account for an ever-growing share of overall agency budgets, compromising abilities to attain other objectives related to forest health, recreation, timber management, etc. Trends associated with a changing climate and human expansion into fire-prone areas could lead to additional suppression costs in the future, only further highlighting the need for an ability to evaluate economic tradeoffs in investments across the wildfire management spectrum. Critically, these economic analyses need to accurately capture the complex spatial and stochastic aspects of wildfire, the inherent uncertainty associated with monetizing environmental impacts of wildfire, the costs and effectiveness of alternative management policies, and linkages between pre-fire investments and active incident management. Investing in hazardous fuels reduction and forest restoration in particular is a major policy lever for pre-fire risk mitigation, and will be a primary focus of our presentation. Evaluating alternative fuel management and suppression policies could provide opportunities for significant efficiency improvements in the development of risk-informed management fire management strategies. Better understanding tradeoffs of fire impacts and costs can help inform policy questions such as how much of the landscape to treat and how to balance investments in treating new areas versus maintaining previous investments. We will summarize current data needs, knowledge gaps, and other factors influencing research and development on this critically important topic. Specifically we will focus on how to embed simulation models within an economic framework, how to link fire models with models of wildfire management expenditures, how to evaluate alternative management policies, and how to measure cost-effectiveness.

Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

PubMed

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for ‘extensive cattle ranching’, ‘agro-silvopastoral use’ and ‘intensive cattle ranching and agriculture’. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future. PMID:27632528

Hydrocarbon characterization experiments in fully turbulent fires.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ricks, Allen; Blanchat, Thomas K.

As the capabilities of numerical simulations increase, decision makers are increasingly relying upon simulations rather than experiments to assess risks across a wide variety of accident scenarios including fires. There are still, however, many aspects of fires that are either not well understood or are difficult to treat from first principles due to the computational expense. For a simulation to be truly predictive and to provide decision makers with information which can be reliably used for risk assessment the remaining physical processes must be studied and suitable models developed for the effects of the physics. The model for the fuelmore » evaporation rate in a liquid fuel pool fire is significant because in well-ventilated fires the evaporation rate largely controls the total heat release rate from the fire. A set of experiments are outlined in this report which will provide data for the development and validation of models for the fuel regression rates in liquid hydrocarbon fuel fires. The experiments will be performed on fires in the fully turbulent scale range (> 1 m diameter) and with a number of hydrocarbon fuels ranging from lightly sooting to heavily sooting. The importance of spectral absorption in the liquid fuels and the vapor dome above the pool will be investigated and the total heat flux to the pool surface will be measured. The importance of convection within the liquid fuel will be assessed by restricting large scale liquid motion in some tests. These data sets will provide a sound, experimentally proven basis for assessing how much of the liquid fuel needs to be modeled to enable a predictive simulation of a fuel fire given the couplings between evaporation of fuel from the pool and the heat release from the fire which drives the evaporation.« less

Modeling of Electrical Cable Failure in a Dynamic Assessment of Fire Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucknor, Matthew D.

Fires at a nuclear power plant are a safety concern because of their potential to defeat the redundant safety features that provide a high level of assurance of the ability to safely shutdown the plant. One of the added complexities of providing protection against fires is the need to determine the likelihood of electrical cable failure which can lead to the loss of the ability to control or spurious actuation of equipment that is required for safe shutdown. A number of plants are now transitioning from their deterministic fire protection programs to a risk-informed, performance based fire protection program according to the requirements of National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 805. Within a risk-informed framework, credit can be taken for the analysis of fire progression within a fire zone that was not permissible within the deterministic framework of a 10 CFR 50.48 Appendix R safe shutdown analysis. To perform the analyses required for the transition, plants need to be able to demonstrate with some level of assurance that cables related to safe shutdown equipment will not be compromised during postulated fire scenarios. This research contains the development of new cable failure models that have the potential to more accurately predict electrical cable failure in common cable bundle configurations. Methods to determine the thermal properties of the new models from empirical data are presented along with comparisons between the new models and existing techniques used in the nuclear industry today. A Dynamic Event Tree (DET) methodology is also presented which allows for the proper treatment of uncertainties associated with fire brigade intervention and its effects on cable failure analysis. Finally a shielding analysis is performed to determine the effects on the temperature response of a cable bundle that is shielded from a fire source by an intervening object such as another cable tray. The results from the analyses demonstrate that models of similar complexity to existing cable failure techniques and tuned to empirical data can better approximate the temperature response of a cables located in tightly packed cable bundles. The new models also provide a way to determine the conditions insides a cable bundle which allows for separate treatment of cables on the interior of the bundle from cables on the exterior of the bundle. The results from the DET analysis show that the overall assessed probability of cable failure can be significantly reduced by more realistically accounting for the influence that the fire brigade has on a fire progression scenario. The shielding analysis results demonstrate a significant reduction in the temperature response of a shielded versus a non-shielded cable bundle; however the computational cost of using a fire progression model that can capture these effects may be prohibitive for performing DET analyses with currently available computational fluid dynamics models and computational resources.

Comparison of Interglacial fire dynamics in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Daniau, Anne-Laure

2016-04-01

Responses of fire activity to a change in climate are still uncertain and biases exist by integrating this non-linear process into global modeling of the Earth system. Warming and regional drying can force fire activity in two opposite directions: an increase in fire in fuel supported ecosystems or a fire reduction in fuel-limited ecosystems. Therefore, climate variables alone can not be used to estimate the fire risk because vegetation variability is an important determinant of fire dynamics and responds itself to change in climate. Southern Africa (south of 20°S) paleofire history reconstruction obtained from the analysis of microcharcoal preserved in a deep-sea core located off Namibia reveals changes of fire activity on orbital timescales in the precession band. In particular, increase in fire is observed during glacial periods, and reduction of fire during interglacials such as the Eemian and the Holocene. The Holocene was characterized by even lower level of fire activity than Eemian. Those results suggest the alternance of grass-fueled fires during glacials driven by increase in moisture and the development of limited fueled ecosystems during interglacials characterized by dryness. Those results question the simulated increase in the fire risk probability projected for this region under a warming and drying climate obtained by Pechony and Schindell (2010). To explore the validity of the hypotheses we conducted a data-model comparison for both interglacials from 126.000 to 115.000 BP for the Eemian and from 8.000 to 2.000 BP for the Holocene. Data out of a transient, global modeling study with a Vegetation-Fire model of full complexity (JSBACH) is used, driven by a Climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER). Climate data like precipitation and temperature as well as vegetation data like soil moisture, productivity (NPP) on plant functional type level are used to explain trends in fire activity. The comparison of trends in fire activity during the Eemian (126.000 to 120.000 BP) and the Holocene (8.000 to 200 BP) shows an increase in fire data and in simulated fire. Lower level of fire during the Holocene than Eemian can be explained by differences due to unequal trends in vegetation as a result of climate forcing due to orbital changes: while woody type vegetation plays a major role during the Eemian, the Holocene is influenced by grass land. From the modelling perspective changes in the seasonal precipitation drives the vegetation pattern.

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements

PubMed Central

Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

2017-01-01

Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix. PMID:28157149

Tailored stakeholder products help provide a vulnerability and adaptation assessment of Greek forests due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Roussos, Anargyros

2014-05-01

Greece, being part of the eastern Mediterranean basin, is an area particularly vulnerable to climate change and associated forest fire risk. The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of Greek forests to fire risk occurrence and identify potential adaptation options within the context of climate change through continuous interaction with local stakeholders. To address their needs, the following tools for the provision of climate information services were developed: 1. An application providing fire risk forecasts for the following 3 days (http://cirrus.meteo.noa.gr/forecast/bolam/index.htm) was developed from NOA to address the needs of short term fire planners. 2. A web-based application providing long term fire risk and other fire related indices changes due to climate change (time horizon up to 2050 and 2100) was developed in collaboration with the WWF Greece office to address the needs of long term fire policy makers (http://www.oikoskopio.gr/map/). 3. An educational tool was built in order to complement the two web-based tools and to further expand knowledge in fire risk modeling to address the needs for in-depth training. In particular, the second product provided the necessary information to assess the exposure to forest fires. To this aim, maps depicting the days with elevated fire risk (FWI>30) both for the control (1961-1990) and the near future period (2021-2050) were created by the web-application. FWI is a daily index that provides numerical ratings of relative fire potential based solely on weather observations. The meteorological inputs to the FWI System are daily noon values of temperature, air relative humidity, 10m wind speed and precipitation during the previous 24 hours. It was found that eastern lowlands are more exposed to fire risk followed by eastern high elevation areas, for both the control and near future period. The next step towards vulnerability assessment was to address sensitivity, ie the human-environmental conditions that can worsen or ameliorate the hazard. In our study static information concerning fire affecting factors, namely the topography and vegetation, was used to create a fire hazard map in order to assess the sensitivity factor. Land cover types for the year 2007 were combined with topographic information deriving from a digital elevation model order to produce these maps. High elevation continental areas were found to be the most sensitive areas followed by the lowland continental areas. Exposure and sensitivity were combined to produce the overall impact of climate change to forest fire risk. The adaptive capacity is defined by the ability of forests to adapt to changing environmental conditions. To assess the adaptive capacity of Greek forests, a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) tool was implemented and used by the stakeholders. The major proposed adaptation measures for Greek forests included fire prevention measures and the inclusion of the private forest covered areas in the fire fighting. Finally, vulnerability of Greek forest to fire was estimated as the overall impact of climate change minus the forests' adaptive capacity and was found to be medium for most areas in the country. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIM-RUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010-265192.

Fire in the Earth system.

PubMed

Bowman, David M J S; Balch, Jennifer K; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J; Carlson, Jean M; Cochrane, Mark A; D'Antonio, Carla M; Defries, Ruth S; Doyle, John C; Harrison, Sandy P; Johnston, Fay H; Keeley, Jon E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Kull, Christian A; Marston, J Brad; Moritz, Max A; Prentice, I Colin; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Swetnam, Thomas W; van der Werf, Guido R; Pyne, Stephen J

2009-04-24

Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

Fire in the Earth system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowman, David M.J.S.; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J.; Carlson, Jean M.; Cochrane, Mark A.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Doyle, John C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Johnston, Fay H.; Keeley, Jon E.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Kull, Christian A.; Marston, J. Brad; Moritz, Max A.; Prentice, I. Colin; Roos, Christopher I.; Scott, Andrew C.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Pyne, Stephen

2009-01-01

Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

Influence of forest management alternatives and land type on susceptibility to fire in northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Patrick A. Zollner; Brian R. Sturtevant; S. He Hong; David J. Mladenoff

2004-01-01

We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to study the effects of six alternative vegetation management scenarios on forest succession and the subsequent risk of canopy fire on a 2791 km2 landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. The study area is a mix of fire-prone and fire-resistant land types. The alternatives vary the spatial...

Protect Thy Neighbor: Investigating the Spatial Externalities of Community Wildfire Hazard Mitigation

Treesearch

David Butry; Geoffrey Donovan

2008-01-01

Climate change, increased wildland fuels, and residential development patterns in fire-prone areas all combine to make wildfire risk mitigation an important public policy issue. One approach to wildfire risk mitigation is to encourage homeowners to use fire-resistant building materials and to create defensible spaces around their homes. We develop a theoretical model...

Challenges and needs in fire management: A landscape simulation modeling perspective [chapter 4

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan

2011-01-01

Fire management will face many challenges in the future from global climate change to protecting people, communities, and values at risk. Simulation modeling will be a vital tool for addressing these challenges but the next generation of simulation models must be spatially explicit to address critical landscape ecology relationships and they must use mechanistic...

Utilizing NASA EOS Data for Fire Management in el Departmento del Valle del Cauco, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenton, J. C.; Bledsoe, N.; Alabdouli, K.

2012-12-01

In the last few years, fire incidence in Colombian wild areas has increased, damaging pristine forests into savannas and sterile lands. Fire poses a significant threat to biodiversity, rural communities and established infrastructure. These events issue an urgent need to address this problem. NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) can play a significant role in the monitoring fires and natural disasters. SERVIR, the Regional Visualization and Monitoring Network, constitutes a platform for the observation, forecasting and modeling of environmental processes in Central America. A project called "The GIS for fire management in Guatemala (SIGMA-I)" has been already conducted to address the same problem in another Latin American country, Guatemala. SIGMA-I was developed by the Inter-agency work among the National protected areas council (CONAP), National Forestry Institution (INAB), the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction / National Forest Fire Prevention and Control System (CONRED/SIPECIF), and the Ministry of the Environment and National Resources (MARN) in Guatemala under the guidance and assistance of SERVIR. With SIGMA-I as an example, we proposed to conduct a similar project for the country of Colombia. First, a pilot study in the area of the watershed of the Cali River, Colombia was conducted to ensure that the data was available and that the maps and models were accurate. The proposed study will investigate the technical resources required: 1.) A fire map with a compilation of ignition data (hot spots) utilizing Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products MOD14 and MYD14 2.) A map of fire scars derived from medium resolution satellite data (ASTER) during the period 2003-2011 for the entire country, and a map of fire scar recurrence and statistics derived from the datasets produced. 3.) A pattern analysis and ignition cause model derived from a matrix of variables statistically exploring the demographic and environmental factors of fire risk, such as land surface temperature, precipitation, and NDVI .4.) A dynamic fire risk evaluation able to generate a dynamic map of ignition risk based on statistical analysis factors. This study aims to research integrating MODIS, Landsat and ASTER data along with in-situ data on environmental parameters from the Corporation of the Cauca Valley River (CVC) along with other data on social, economical and cultural variables obtained by researchers of the Wild Fire Observatory (OCIF) from the "Universidad Autónoma de Occidente" in order to create an ignition cause model, dynamic fire risk evaluation system and compile any and all geospatial data generated for the region. In this way the research will help predict and forecast fire vulnerabilities in the region. The team undertook this project through SERVIR with the guidance of the scientist, Victor Hugo Ramos, who was the leader and principal investigator on the SIGMA-I.

Assessing Landscape Scale Wildfire Exposure for Highly Valued Resources in a Mediterranean Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcasena, Fermín J.; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

2015-05-01

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km2 located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

Unraveling the Complexity of Wildland Urban Interface Fires.

PubMed

Mahmoud, Hussam; Chulahwat, Akshat

2018-06-18

Recent wildland urban interface fires have demonstrated the unrelenting destructive nature of these events and have called for an urgent need to address the problem. The Wildfire paradox reinforces the ideology that forest fires are inevitable and are actually beneficial; therefore focus should to be shifted towards minimizing potential losses to communities. This requires the development of vulnerability-based frameworks that can be used to provide holistic understanding of risk. In this study, we devise a probabilistic approach for quantifying community vulnerability to wildfires by applying concepts of graph theory. A directed graph for community in question is developed to model wildfire inside a community by incorporating different fire propagation modes. The model accounts for relevant community-specific characteristics including wind conditions, community layout, individual structural features, and the surrounding wildland vegetation. We calibrate the framework to study the infamous 1991 Oakland fire in an attempt to unravel the complexity of community fires. We use traditional centrality measures to identify critical behavior patterns and to evaluate the effect of fire mitigation strategies. Unlike current practice, the results are shown to be community-specific with substantial dependency of risk on meteorological conditions, environmental factors, and community characteristics and layout.

Hydrocarbon characterization experiments in fully turbulent fires : results and data analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suo-Anttila, Jill Marie; Blanchat, Thomas K.

As the capabilities of numerical simulations increase, decision makers are increasingly relying upon simulations rather than experiments to assess risks across a wide variety of accident scenarios including fires. There are still, however, many aspects of fires that are either not well understood or are difficult to treat from first principles due to the computational expense. For a simulation to be truly predictive and to provide decision makers with information which can be reliably used for risk assessment the remaining physical processes must be studied and suitable models developed for the effects of the physics. The model for the fuelmore » evaporation rate in a liquid fuel pool fire is significant because in well-ventilated fires the evaporation rate largely controls the total heat release rate from the fire. This report describes a set of fuel regression rates experiments to provide data for the development and validation of models. The experiments were performed with fires in the fully turbulent scale range (> 1 m diameter) and with a number of hydrocarbon fuels ranging from lightly sooting to heavily sooting. The importance of spectral absorption in the liquid fuels and the vapor dome above the pool was investigated and the total heat flux to the pool surface was measured. The importance of convection within the liquid fuel was assessed by restricting large scale liquid motion in some tests. These data sets provide a sound, experimentally proven basis for assessing how much of the liquid fuel needs to be modeled to enable a predictive simulation of a fuel fire given the couplings between evaporation of fuel from the pool and the heat release from the fire which drives the evaporation.« less

Bulletin of Forest Fire risk in Albania- The experience of the Albania National Centre for forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdufi, I.; Jaupaj, O.; Marku, M.; Deda, M.; Fiori, E.; D'Andrea, M.; Biondi, G.; Fioruci, P.; Massabò, M.; Zorba, P.; Gjonaj, M.

2012-04-01

In the territory of Albania usually every year around 1000 ha are affected by forest fires, from which about 500 ha are completely destroyed. The number of forest fires (nf), with the burning surface (bs) in years has been like this: during the years 1988-1998: nf / bs = 2.19, 1998-2001: nf / bs = 5.66, year 2002 -2005: nf / bs = 8.2, and during the years 2005-2006: nf / bs = 11.9, while economic losses in a year by forest fires is about 2 million of Euro. The increase in years of these figures and the last floods which happened in the last two years in Shkoder, led to an international cooperation, that between the Italian Civil Protection Department and the Albania General Directorate of Civil Emergency. The focus of this cooperation was the building capacity of the Albanian National System of Civil Protection in forecasting, monitoring and prevention forest fires and floods risks. As a result of this collaboration the "National Center for the Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks", was set up at the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment. The Center is the first of its kind in Albania. The mission of the Center is the prediction and monitoring of the forest fire and flood risk in the Albanian territory, as a tools for risk reduction and mitigation. The first step to achieve this strategy was the implementation of the forest fires risk forecast model "RISICO". RISICO was adapted for whole Albania territory by CIMA Research Foundation. The Center, in the summer season, issues a daily bulletin. The bulletin reports the potential risk scenarios related with the ignition and propagation of fires in Albania. The bulletin is broadcasted through email or fax within 12.00 AM of each working day. It highlights where and when severe risk conditions may occur within the next 48 hours

Fire Interest and Antisociality as Risk Factors in the Severity and Persistence of Juvenile Firesetting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacKay, Sherri; Henderson, Joanna; Del Bove, Giannetta; Marton, Peter; Warling, Diane; Root, Carol

2006-01-01

Objective: In the DSM-IV-TR, firesetting is included as a criterion for the diagnoses of conduct disorder and pyromania. The link between firesetting and antisocial behavior is well established in the empirical literature. Although theoretical models of firesetting often include fire interest as a putative risk factor, there is little research on…

Can landscape-level ecological restoration influence fire risk? A spatially-explicit assessment of a northern temperate-southern boreal forest landscape

Treesearch

Douglas J. Shinneman; Brian J. Palik; Meredith W. Cornett

2012-01-01

Management strategies to restore forest landscapes are often designed to concurrently reduce fire risk. However, the compatibility of these two objectives is not always clear, and uncoordinated management among landowners may have unintended consequences. We used a forest landscape simulation model to compare the effects of contemporary management and hypothetical...

Incorporating Resource Protection Constraints in an Analysis of Landscape Fuel-Treatment Effectiveness in the Northern Sierra Nevada, CA, USA.

PubMed

Dow, Christopher B; Collins, Brandon M; Stephens, Scott L

2016-03-01

Finding novel ways to plan and implement landscape-level forest treatments that protect sensitive wildlife and other key ecosystem components, while also reducing the risk of large-scale, high-severity fires, can prove to be difficult. We examined alternative approaches to landscape-scale fuel-treatment design for the same landscape. These approaches included two different treatment scenarios generated from an optimization algorithm that reduces modeled fire spread across the landscape, one with resource-protection constrains and one without the same. We also included a treatment scenario that was the actual fuel-treatment network implemented, as well as a no-treatment scenario. For all the four scenarios, we modeled hazardous fire potential based on conditional burn probabilities, and projected fire emissions. Results demonstrate that in all the three active treatment scenarios, hazardous fire potential, fire area, and emissions were reduced by approximately 50 % relative to the untreated condition. Results depict that incorporation of constraints is more effective at reducing modeled fire outputs, possibly due to the greater aggregation of treatments, creating greater continuity of fuel-treatment blocks across the landscape. The implementation of fuel-treatment networks using different planning techniques that incorporate real-world constraints can reduce the risk of large problematic fires, allow for landscape-level heterogeneity that can provide necessary ecosystem services, create mixed forest stand structures on a landscape, and promote resilience in the uncertain future of climate change.

Human influence on California fire regimes.

PubMed

Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C; Keeley, Jon E; Hawbaker, Todd J; Clayton, Murray K; Stewart, Susan I; Hammer, Roger B

2007-07-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.

Human influence on California fire regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, A.D.; Radeloff, V.C.; Keeley, J.E.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Clayton, M.K.; Stewart, S.I.; Hammer, R.B.

2007-01-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Probabilistic models to estimate fire-induced cable damage at nuclear power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valbuena, Genebelin R.

Even though numerous PRAs have shown that fire can be a major contributor to nuclear power plant risk, there are some specific areas of knowledge related to this issue, such as the prediction of fire-induced damage to electrical cables and circuits, and their potential effects in the safety of the nuclear power plant, that still constitute a practical enigma, particularly for the lack of approaches/models to perform consistent and objective assessments. This report contains a discussion of three different models to estimate fire-induced cable damage likelihood given a specified fire profile: the kinetic, the heat transfer and the IR "K Factor" model. These models not only are based on statistical analysis of data available in the open literature, but to the greatest extent possible they use physics based principles to describe the underlying mechanism of failures that take place among the electrical cables upon heating due to external fires. The characterization of cable damage, and consequently the loss of functionality of electrical cables in fire is a complex phenomenon that depends on a variety of intrinsic factors such as cable materials and dimensions, and extrinsic factors such as electrical and mechanical loads on the cables, heat flux severity, and exposure time. Some of these factors are difficult to estimate even in a well-characterized fire, not only for the variability related to the unknown material composition and physical arrangements, but also for the lack of objective frameworks and theoretical models to study the behavior of polymeric wire cable insulation under dynamic external thermal insults. The results of this research will (1) help to develop a consistent framework to predict fire-induced cable failure modes likelihood, and (2) develop some guidance to evaluate and/or reduce the risk associated with these failure modes in existing and new power plant facilities. Among the models evaluated, the physics-based heat transfer model takes into account the properties and characteristics of the cables and cable materials, and the characteristics of the thermal insult. This model can be used to estimate the probability of cable damage under different thermal conditions.

Risk-assessment of post-wildfire hydrological response in semi-arid basins: The effects of varying rainfall representations in the KINEROS2/AGWA model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Representation of precipitation is one of the most difficult aspects of modeling post-fire runoff and erosion and also one of the most sensitive input parameters to rainfall-runoff models. The impact of post-fire convective rainstorms, especially in semi-arid watersheds, depends on the overlap betwe...

Mapping forest canopy fuels in Yellowstone National Park using lidar and hyperspectral data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halligan, Kerry Quinn

The severity and size of wildland fires in the forested western U.S have increased in recent years despite improvements in fire suppression efficiency. This, along with increased density of homes in the wildland-urban interface, has resulted in high costs for fire management and increased risks to human health, safety and property. Crown fires, in comparison to surface fires, pose an especially high risk due to their intensity and high rate of spread. Crown fire models require a range of quantitative fuel parameters which can be difficult and costly to obtain, but advances in lidar and hyperspectral sensor technologies hold promise for delivering these inputs. Further research is needed, however, to assess the strengths and limitations of these technologies and the most appropriate analysis methodologies for estimating crown fuel parameters from these data. This dissertation focuses on retrieving critical crown fuel parameters, including canopy height, canopy bulk density and proportion of dead canopy fuel, from airborne lidar and hyperspectral data. Remote sensing data were used in conjunction with detailed field data on forest parameters and surface reflectance measurements. A new method was developed for retrieving Digital Surface Model (DSM) and Digital Canopy Models (DCM) from first return lidar data. Validation data on individual tree heights demonstrated the high accuracy (r2 0.95) of the DCMs developed via this new algorithm. Lidar-derived DCMs were used to estimate critical crown fire parameters including available canopy fuel, canopy height and canopy bulk density with linear regression model r2 values ranging from 0.75 to 0.85. Hyperspectral data were used in conjunction with Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) to assess fuel quality in the form of live versus dead canopy proportions. Severity and stage of insect-caused forest mortality were estimated using the fractional abundance of green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation and shade obtained from SMA. Proportion of insect attack was estimated with a linear model producing an r2 of 0.6 using SMA and bark endmembers from image and reference libraries. Fraction of red attack, with a possible link to increased crown fire risk, was estimated with an r2 of 0.45.

Studying the effects of fuel treatment based on burn probability on a boreal forest landscape.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Yang, Jian; He, Hong S

2013-01-30

Fuel treatment is assumed to be a primary tactic to mitigate intense and damaging wildfires. However, how to place treatment units across a landscape and assess its effectiveness is difficult for landscape-scale fuel management planning. In this study, we used a spatially explicit simulation model (LANDIS) to conduct wildfire risk assessments and optimize the placement of fuel treatments at the landscape scale. We first calculated a baseline burn probability map from empirical data (fuel, topography, weather, and fire ignition and size data) to assess fire risk. We then prioritized landscape-scale fuel treatment based on maps of burn probability and fuel loads (calculated from the interactions among tree composition, stand age, and disturbance history), and compared their effects on reducing fire risk. The burn probability map described the likelihood of burning on a given location; the fuel load map described the probability that a high fuel load will accumulate on a given location. Fuel treatment based on the burn probability map specified that stands with high burn probability be treated first, while fuel treatment based on the fuel load map specified that stands with high fuel loads be treated first. Our results indicated that fuel treatment based on burn probability greatly reduced the burned area and number of fires of different intensities. Fuel treatment based on burn probability also produced more dispersed and smaller high-risk fire patches and therefore can improve efficiency of subsequent fire suppression. The strength of our approach is that more model components (e.g., succession, fuel, and harvest) can be linked into LANDIS to map the spatially explicit wildfire risk and its dynamics to fuel management, vegetation dynamics, and harvesting. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling erosion on steep sagebrush rangeland before and after prescribed fire

Treesearch

Corey A. Moffet; Frederick B. Pierson; Kenneth E. Spaeth

2007-01-01

Fire in sagebrush rangelands significantly alters canopy cover, ground cover, and soil properties that influence runoff and erosion processes. Runoff is generated more quickly and a larger volume of runoff is produced following prescribed fire. The result is increased risk of severe erosion and downstream flooding. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP), developed...

Fire-probability maps for the Brazilian Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, M.; Nobre, C.; Obregon, G.; Sampaio, G.

2009-04-01

Most fires in Amazonia result from the combination between climate and land-use factors. They occur mainly in the dry season and are used as an inexpensive tool for land clearing and management. However, their unintended consequences are of important concern. Fire emissions are the most important sources of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the region, accidental fires are a major threat to protected areas, and frequent fires may lead to permanent conversion of forest areas into savannas. Fire-activity models have thus become important tools for environmental analyses in Amazonia. They are used, for example, in warning systems for monitoring the risk of burnings in protected areas, to improve the description of biogeochemical cycles and vegetation composition in ecosystem models, and to help estimate the long-term potential for savannas in biome models. Previous modeling studies for the whole region were produced in units of satellite fire pixels, which complicate their direct use for environmental applications. By reinterpreting remote-sensing based data using a statistical approach, we were able to calibrate models for the whole region in units of probability, or chance of fires to occur. The application of these models for years 2005 and 2006 provided maps of fire potential at 3-month and 0.25-deg resolution as a function of precipitation and distance from main roads. In both years, the performance of the resulting maps was better for the period July-September. During these months, most of satellite-based fire observations were located in areas with relatively high chance of fire, as determined by the modeled probability maps. In addition to reproduce reasonably well the areas presenting maximum fire activity as detected by remote sensing, the new results in units of probability are easier to apply than previous estimates from fire-pixel models.

Fire-probability maps for the Brazilian Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Manoel; Sampaio, Gilvan; Obregon, Guillermo; Nobre, Carlos

2010-05-01

Most fires in Amazonia result from the combination between climate and land-use factors. They occur mainly in the dry season and are used as an inexpensive tool for land clearing and management. However, their unintended consequences are of important concern. Fire emissions are the most important sources of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the region, accidental fires are a major threat to protected areas, and frequent fires may lead to permanent conversion of forest areas into savannas. Fire-activity models have thus become important tools for environmental analyses in Amazonia. They are used, for example, in warning systems for monitoring the risk of burnings in protected areas, to improve the description of biogeochemical cycles and vegetation composition in ecosystem models, and to help estimate the long-term potential for savannas in biome models. Previous modeling studies for the whole region were produced in units of satellite fire pixels, which complicate their direct use for environmental applications. By reinterpreting remote-sensing based data using a statistical approach, we were able to calibrate models for the whole region in units of probability, or chance of fires to occur. The application of these models for years 2005 and 2006 provided maps of fire potential at 3-month and 0.25-deg resolution as a function of precipitation and distance from main roads. In both years, the performance of the resulting maps was better for the period July-September. During these months, most of satellite-based fire observations were located in areas with relatively high chance of fire, as determined by the modeled probability maps. In addition to reproduce reasonably well the areas presenting maximum fire activity as detected by remote sensing, the new results in units of probability are easier to apply than previous estimates from fire-pixel models.

Can Fire and Rescue Services and the National Health Service work together to improve the safety and wellbeing of vulnerable older people? Design of a proof of concept study.

PubMed

Lowton, Karen; Laybourne, Anne H; Whiting, David G; Martin, Finbarr C

2010-12-03

Older adults are at increased risk both of falling and of experiencing accidental domestic fire. In addition to advanced age, these adverse events share the risk factors of balance or mobility problems, cognitive impairment and socioeconomic deprivation. For both events, the consequences include significant injury and death, and considerable socioeconomic costs for the individual and informal carers, as well as for emergency services, health and social care agencies.Secondary prevention services for older people who have fallen or who are identifiable as being at high risk of falling include NHS Falls clinics, where a multidisciplinary team offers an individualised multifactorial targeted intervention including strength and balance exercise programmes, medication changes and home hazard modification. A similar preventative approach is employed by most Fire and Rescue Services who conduct Home Fire Safety Visits to assess and, if necessary, remedy domestic fire risk, fit free smoke alarms with instruction for use and maintenance, and plan an escape route. We propose that the similarity of population at risk, location, specific risk factors and the commonality of preventative approaches employed could offer net gains in terms of feasibility, effectiveness and acceptability if activities within these two preventative approaches were to be combined. This prospective proof of concept study, currently being conducted in two London boroughs, (Southwark and Lambeth) aims to reduce the incidence of both fires and falls in community-dwelling older adults. It comprises two concurrent 12-month interventions: the integration of 1) fall risk assessments into the Brigade's Home Fire Safety Visit and 2) fire risk assessments into Falls services by inviting older clinic attendees to book a Visit. Our primary objective is to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of these interventions. Furthermore, we are evaluating their acceptability and value to key stakeholders and services users. If our approach proves feasible and the risk assessment is both effective and acceptable, we envisage advocating a partnership model of working more broadly to fire and rescue services and health services in Britain, such that effective integration of preventative services for older people becomes routine for an ageing population.

Space-Based Sensorweb Monitoring of Wildfires in Thailand

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Steve; Doubleday, Joshua; Mclaren, David; Davies, Ashley; Tran, Daniel; Tanpipat, Veerachai; Akaakara, Siri; Ratanasuwan, Anuchit; Mandl, Daniel

2011-01-01

We describe efforts to apply sensorweb technologies to the monitoring of forest fires in Thailand. In this approach, satellite data and ground reports are assimilated to assess the current state of the forest system in terms of forest fire risk, active fires, and likely progression of fires and smoke plumes. This current and projected assessment can then be used to actively direct sensors and assets to best acquire further information. This process operates continually with new data updating models of fire activity leading to further sensing and updating of models. As the fire activity is tracked, products such as active fire maps, burn scar severity maps, and alerts are automatically delivered to relevant parties.We describe the current state of the Thailand Fire Sensorweb which utilizes the MODIS-based FIRMS system to track active fires and trigger Earth Observing One / Advanced Land Imager to acquire imagery and produce active fire maps, burn scar severity maps, and alerts. We describe ongoing work to integrate additional sensor sources and generate additional products.

Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks.

PubMed

Bashari, Hossein; Naghipour, Ali Asghar; Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin; Sangoony, Hamed; Tahmasebi, Pejman

2016-09-01

Identifying areas that have a high risk of burning is a main component of fire management planning. Although the available tools can predict the fire risks, these are poor in accommodating uncertainties in their predictions. In this study, we accommodated uncertainty in wildfire prediction using Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). An influence diagram was developed to identify the factors influencing wildfire in arid and semi-arid areas of Iran, and it was populated with probabilities to produce a BBNs model. The behavior of the model was tested using scenario and sensitivity analysis. Land cover/use, mean annual rainfall, mean annual temperature, elevation, and livestock density were recognized as the main variables determining wildfire occurrence. The produced model had good accuracy as its ROC area under the curve was 0.986. The model could be applied in both predictive and diagnostic analysis for answering "what if" and "how" questions. The probabilistic relationships within the model can be updated over time using observation and monitoring data. The wildfire BBN model may be updated as new knowledge emerges; hence, it can be used to support the process of adaptive management.

Evaluation of critical nuclear power plant electrical cable response to severe thermal fire conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Gabriel James

The failure of electrical cables exposed to severe thermal fire conditions are a safety concern for operating commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has promoted the use of risk-informed and performance-based methods for fire protection which resulted in a need to develop realistic methods to quantify the risk of fire to NPP safety. Recent electrical cable testing has been conducted to provide empirical data on the failure modes and likelihood of fire-induced damage. This thesis evaluated numerous aspects of the data. Circuit characteristics affecting fire-induced electrical cable failure modes have been evaluated. In addition, thermal failure temperatures corresponding to cable functional failures have been evaluated to develop realistic single point thermal failure thresholds and probability distributions for specific cable insulation types. Finally, the data was used to evaluate the prediction capabilities of a one-dimension conductive heat transfer model used to predict cable failure.

Assessing landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources in a Mediterranean area.

PubMed

Alcasena, Fermín J; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

2015-05-01

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km(2) located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

2010-05-01

Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations and ignition probability grids (1000 x 1000 m) built from historical fire data (1995-2007). The simulation outputs were then examined to understand relationships between burn probability and specific vegetation types and ignition sources. Wildfire threats to specific values of human interest were quantified to map landscape patterns of wildfire risk. The simulation outputs also allowed us to differentiate between areas of the landscape that were progenitors of fires versus "victims" of large fires. The results provided spatially explicit data on wildfire likelihood and intensity that can be used in a variety of strategic and tactical planning forums to mitigate wildfire threats to human and other values in the Mediterranean Basin.

A mixed logit model of homeowner preferences for wildfire hazard reduction

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...

A Mixed Logit Model of Homeowner Preferences for Wildfire Hazard Reduction

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

2010-01-01

People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...

Cost-Effective Fuel Treatment Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreitler, J.; Thompson, M.; Vaillant, N.

2014-12-01

The cost of fighting large wildland fires in the western United States has grown dramatically over the past decade. This trend will likely continue with growth of the WUI into fire prone ecosystems, dangerous fuel conditions from decades of fire suppression, and a potentially increasing effect from prolonged drought and climate change. Fuel treatments are often considered the primary pre-fire mechanism to reduce the exposure of values at risk to wildland fire, and a growing suite of fire models and tools are employed to prioritize where treatments could mitigate wildland fire damages. Assessments using the likelihood and consequence of fire are critical because funds are insufficient to reduce risk on all lands needing treatment, therefore prioritization is required to maximize the effectiveness of fuel treatment budgets. Cost-effectiveness, doing the most good per dollar, would seem to be an important fuel treatment metric, yet studies or plans that prioritize fuel treatments using costs or cost-effectiveness measures are absent from the literature. Therefore, to explore the effect of using costs in fuel treatment planning we test four prioritization algorithms designed to reduce risk in a case study examining fuel treatments on the Sisters Ranger District of central Oregon. For benefits we model sediment retention and standing biomass, and measure the effectiveness of each algorithm by comparing the differences among treatment and no treat alternative scenarios. Our objective is to maximize the averted loss of net benefits subject to a representative fuel treatment budget. We model costs across the study landscape using the My Fuel Treatment Planner software, tree list data, local mill prices, and GIS-measured site characteristics. We use fire simulations to generate burn probabilities, and estimate fire intensity as conditional flame length at each pixel. Two prioritization algorithms target treatments based on cost-effectiveness and show improvements over those that use only benefits. Variations across the heterogeneous surfaces of costs and benefits create opportunities for fuel treatments to maximize the expected averted loss of benefits. By targeting these opportunities we demonstrate how incorporating costs in fuel treatment prioritization can improve the outcome of fuel treatment planning.

Fire modeling in a nonventilated corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lulea, Marius Dorin; Iordache, Vlad; Năstase, Ilinca

2018-02-01

The main objective of this study was to determine the effect of fire in a nonventilated corridor. A real-scale model of a corridor has been modeled in Fire Dynamics Simulator(F.D.S.) in order to determine the evolution of indoor temperatures, the visibility and the oxygen quantities during a fire. The start time of a sprinkler has also been determined. The use of sprinklers in buildings has become a necessity and a requirement imposed by technical norms. The provision of this type of installation has become a common feature in buildings with a high fire risk, with two main effects: fire extinction and protection of structural and partition elements from high temperatures[15]. The ultimate goal is to ensure optimal conditions for saving the building users, intervention teams and maintaining the stability of the building. Low temperatures and good visibility on the escape routes during a fire are the basic conditions to ensure the optimal evacuation of users.

Israel wildfires: future trends, impacts and mitigation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittenberg, Lea

2017-04-01

Forest fires in the Euro-Mediterranean region burn about 450,000 ha each year. In Israel, the frequency and extent of wildfires have been steadily increasing over the past decades, culminating in several large and costly fires in 2010, 2012 and 2016. The extensive development of forest areas since the 1950's and the accumulation of fuel in the forests, has led to increased occurrences of high intensity fires. Land-use changes and human population growth are the most prevailing and common determinant of wildfire occurrence and impacts. Climate extremes, possibly already a sign of regional climate change, are another frequent determinant of increasing wildfire risk. Therefore, the combination of extreme dry spells, high fuel loads and increased anthropogenic pressure on the open spaces result in an overall amplified wildfire risk. These fires not only cause loss of life and damage to properties but also carry serious environmental repercussions. Combustion of standing vegetation and the leaf litter leave the soil bare and vulnerable to runoff and erosion, thereby increasing risks of flooding. Today, all of Israel's open spaces, forests, natural parks, major metropolitan centers, towns and villages are embedded within the wildland urban interface (WUI). Typically, wildfires near or in the WUI occur on uplands and runoff generated from the burned area poses flooding risks in urban and agricultural zones located downstream. Post-fire management aims at reducing associated hazards as collapsing trees and erosion risk. Often the time interval between a major fire and the definition of priority sites is in the order of days-to-weeks since administrative procedures, financial estimates and implementation of post-fire salvage logging operations require time. Defining the magnitude of the burn scar and estimating its potential impact on runoff and erosion must therefore be done quickly. A post-fire burn severity, runoff and erosion model is a useful tool in estimating potential risks and management strategic. Moreover, national agencies and local authorities must decide on a range of post-fire measures to mitigate risks quickly since most large fires occur late in summer shortly before the winter season. Possible climate changes, socio-economic trends, and intense land use pressures are contributing factors in a national challenge to deal with forest fires along the WUI. However, in order to support integrated fire preparedness, response, management and recovery at the national, regional and local scales, stronger research and planning effort are required. This includes long-term monitoring programs and a systematic, standardized data acquisition scheme, compiling fire history, landscape-fire spread, mitigation and assessment of the immediate fire effects, land use changes and weather data. Knowledge of both short and long-term impacts of wildfire is essential for effective risk assessment, policy formulation and wildfire management.

Combining fire and erosion modeling to target forest management activities

Treesearch

William J. Elliot; Mary Ellen Miller; Nic Enstice

2015-01-01

Forests deliver a number of important ecosystem services including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing, quantity and quality of runoff are altered. A modeling study was carried out in a forested watershed in California to determine the risk of wildfire, and the potential post-fire sediment delivery from approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons...

Targeting forest management through fire and erosion modeling

Treesearch

William J. Elliot; Mary Ellen Miller; Nic Enstice

2016-01-01

Forests deliver a number of important ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing, quantity and quality of runoff are altered. A modelling study was conducted in a forested watershed in California, USA, to determine the risk of wildfire, and the potential post-fire sediment delivery from ~4-ha hillslope polygons within...

Human influence on the abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuels in mixed forests of northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Patrick A. Zoller; Eric J. Gustafson; David T. Cleland

2004-01-01

Though fire is considered a "natural" disturbance, humans heavily influence modern wildfire regimes. Humans influence fires both directly, by igniting and suppressing fires, and indirectly, by either altering vegetation, climate, or both. We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to compare the relative importance of a direct human influence (...

Human influence on the abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuels in mixed forests of northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Patrick A. Zollner; Eric J. Gustafson; David T. Cleland

2004-01-01

Though fire is considered a "natural" disturbance, humans heavily influence modern wildfire regimes. Humans influence fires both directly, by igniting and suppressing fires, and indirectly, by either altering vegetation, climate, or both. We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to compare the relative importance of a direct human influence...

Evaluating potential changes in fire risk from Eucalyptus plantings in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Scott L. Goodrick; John A. Stanturf

2012-01-01

Renewed interest in short-rotation woody crops for bioenergy and bioproducts has prompted a reevaluation of the Eucalyptus species for the southern United States. One question that arises about the potential effects of introducing a nonnative species is what effect will there be on fire behavior. Our approximate answer based on modeling fire behavior...

Modeling relationships among 217 fires using remote sensing of burn severity in southern pine forests

Treesearch

Sparkle L. Malone; Leda N. Kobziar; Christina L. Staudhammer; Amr Abd-Elrahman

2011-01-01

Pine flatwoods forests in the southeastern US have experienced severe wildfires over the past few decades, often attributed to fuel load build-up. These forest communities are fire dependent and require regular burning for ecosystem maintenance and health. Although prescribed fire has been used to reduce wildfire risk and maintain ecosystem integrity, managers are...

Comparing production function models for wildfire risk analysis in the wildland-urban interface

Treesearch

D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2005-01-01

Wildfires create damages in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) that total hundreds of millions of dollars annually in the United States. Understanding how fires are produced in built-up areas near and within fire prone landscapes requires evaluating and quantifling the roles that humans play in fire regimes. We outline a typology of wildfire production functions (WPFs...

Application of a Mesoscale Atmospheric Coupled Fire Model BRAMS-FIRE to Alentejo Woodland Fire and Comparison of Performance with the Fire Model WRF-Sfire.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitas, S. R.; Menezes, I. C.; Stockler, R.; Mello, R.; Ribeiro, N. A.; Corte-Real, J. A. M.; Surový, P.

2014-12-01

Models of fuel with the identification of vegetation patterns of Montado ecosystem in Portugal was incorporated in the mesoscale Brazilian Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) and coupled with a spread woodland fire model. The BRAMS-FIRE is a new system developed by the "Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos" (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil) and the "Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrâneas" (ICAAM, Portugal). The fire model used in this effort was originally, developed by Mandel et al. (2013) and further incorporated in the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). Two grids of high spatial resolution were configured with surface input data and fuel models integrated for simulations using both models BRAMS-FIRE and WRF-SFIRE. One grid was placed in the plain land near Beja and the other one in the hills of Ossa to evaluate different types of fire propagation and calibrate BRAMS-FIRE. The objective is simulating the effects of atmospheric circulation in local scale, namely the movements of the heat front and energy release associated to it, obtained by this two models in an episode of woodland fire which took place in Alentejo area in the last decade, for application to planning and evaluations of agro woodland fire risks. We aim to model the behavior of forest fires through a set of equations whose solutions provide quantitative values of one or more variables related to the propagation of fire, described by semi-empirical expressions that are complemented by experimental data allow to obtain the main variables related advancing the perimeter of the fire, as the propagation speed, the intensity of the fire front and fuel consumption and its interaction with atmospheric dynamic system. References Mandel, J., J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, and M. Vejmelka, 2013. New features in WRF-SFIRE and the wildfire forecasting and danger system in Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, submitted, Numerical Wildfires, Cargèse, France, May 13-18, 2013.

Wildfire risk assessment in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface of Greece.

PubMed

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Wildfire Risk Assessment in a Typical Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interface of Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

PubMed

Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

2017-11-06

The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

Research on Influence and Prediction Model of Urban Traffic Link Tunnel curvature on Fire Temperature Based on Pyrosim--SPSS Multiple Regression Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao Ju; Yao, Kun; Dai, Jun Yu; Song, Yun Long

2018-05-01

The underground space, also known as the “fourth dimension” of the city, reflects the efficient use of urban development intensive. Urban traffic link tunnel is a typical underground limited-length space. Due to the geographical location, the special structure of space and the curvature of the tunnel, high-temperature smoke can easily form the phenomenon of “smoke turning” and the fire risk is extremely high. This paper takes an urban traffic link tunnel as an example to focus on the relationship between curvature and the temperature near the fire source, and use the pyrosim built different curvature fire model to analyze the influence of curvature on the temperature of the fire, then using SPSS Multivariate regression analysis simulate curvature of the tunnel and fire temperature data. Finally, a prediction model of urban traffic link tunnel curvature on fire temperature was proposed. The regression model analysis and test show that the curvature is negatively correlated with the tunnel temperature. This model is feasible and can provide a theoretical reference for the urban traffic link tunnel fire protection design and the preparation of the evacuation plan. And also, it provides some reference for other related curved tunnel curvature design and smoke control measures.

Prevention of airway fires: testing the safety of endotracheal tubes and surgical devices in a mechanical model.

PubMed

Roy, Soham; Smith, Lee P

2015-01-01

This study was designed to assess the ability of carbon dioxide (CO2) lasers and radiofrequency ablation devices (Coblator) (ArthoCare Corporation, Sunnyvale, CA) to ignite either a non-reinforced (polyvinylchloride) endotracheal tube (ETT) or an aluminum and fluoroplastic wrapped silicon ("laser safe") ETT at varying titrations of oxygen in a mechanical model of airway surgery. Non-reinforced and laser safe ETTs were suspended in a mechanical model imitating endoscopic airway surgery. A CO2 laser set at 5-30 watts was fired at the ETT at oxygen concentrations ranging from 21% to 88%. The process was repeated using a radiofrequency ablation (RFA) device. All trials were repeated to ensure accuracy. The CO2 laser ignited a fire when contacting a non-reinforced ETT in under 2 seconds at oxygen concentrations as low as 44%. The CO2 laser could not ignite a laser safe ETT under any conditions, unless it struck the non-reinforced distal tip of the ETT. With the RFA, a fire could not be ignited with either reinforced or non-reinforced ETTs. RFA presents no risk of ignition in simulated airway surgery. CO2 lasers should be utilized with a reinforced ETT or no ETT, as fires can easily ignite when lasers strike a non-reinforced ETT. Decreasing the fraction of inspired oxygen reduces the risk of fire. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hollingsworth, LaWen T.; Kurth, Laurie,; Parresol, Bernard, R.

Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation System. The fundamental fire intensity algorithms in these systems require surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model surface fire behavior. Canopy base height, stand height, and canopy bulk density are required in addition to surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model crown fire activity. Several surface fuelmore » and canopy classification efforts have used various remote sensing and ecological relationships as core methods to develop the spatial layers. All of these methods depend upon consistent and temporally constant interpretations of crown attributes and their ecological conditions to estimate surface fuel conditions. This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for an 80,000 ha tract of land in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern US using three different data sources. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the US using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern US using satellite imagery. Differences in modeled fire behavior, data development, and data utility are summarized to assist in determining which data source may be most applicable for various land management activities and required analyses. Characterizing fire behavior under different fuel relationships provides insights for natural ecological processes, management strategies for fire mitigation, and positive and negative features of different modeling systems. A comparison of flame length, rate of spread, crown fire activity, and burn probabilities modeled with FlamMap shows some similar patterns across the landscape from all three data sources, but there are potentially important differences. All data sources showed an expected range of fire behavior. Average flame lengths ranged between 1 and 1.4 m. Rate of spread varied the greatest with a range of 2.4-5.7 m min{sup -1}. Passive crown fire was predicted for 5% of the study area using FCCS and LANDFIRE while passive crown fire was not predicted using SWRA data. No active crown fire was predicted regardless of the data source. Burn probability patterns across the landscape were similar but probability was highest using SWRA and lowest using FCCS.« less

Mapping wildland fuels for fire management across multiple scales: integrating remote sensing, GIS, and biophysical modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keane, Robert E.; Burgan, Robert E.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.

2001-01-01

Fuel maps are essential for computing spatial fire hazard and risk and simulating fire growth and intensity across a landscape. However, fuel mapping is an extremely difficult and complex process requiring expertise in remotely sensed image classification, fire behavior, fuels modeling, ecology, and geographical information systems (GIS). This paper first presents the challenges of mapping fuels: canopy concealment, fuelbed complexity, fuel type diversity, fuel variability, and fuel model generalization. Then, four approaches to mapping fuels are discussed with examples provided from the literature: (1) field reconnaissance; (2) direct mapping methods; (3) indirect mapping methods; and (4) gradient modeling. A fuel mapping method is proposed that uses current remote sensing and image processing technology. Future fuel mapping needs are also discussed which include better field data and fuel models, accurate GIS reference layers, improved satellite imagery, and comprehensive ecosystem models.

Large Scale Experiments on Spacecraft Fire Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urban, David L.; Ruff, Gary A.; Minster, Olivier; Toth, Balazs; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; T'ien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Cowlard, Adam J.; Legros, Guillaume; Eigenbrod, Christian;

Large Scale Experiments on Spacecraft Fire Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urban, David; Ruff, Gary A.; Minster, Olivier; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; Tien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Legros, Guillaume; Eigenbrod, Christian; Smirnov, Nickolay; Fujita, Osamu;

An overview of the fire and fuels extension to the forest vegetation simulator

Treesearch

Sarah J. Beukema; Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; Werner A. Kurz; Nicholas L. Crookston

2000-01-01

The Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) has been developed to assess the risk, behavior, and impact of fire in forest ecosystems. This extension to the widely-used stand-dynamics model FVS simulates the dynamics of snags and surface fuels as they are affected by stand management (of trees or fuels), live tree growth and mortality,...

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Can Fire and Rescue Services and the National Health Service work together to improve the safety and wellbeing of vulnerable older people? Design of a proof of concept study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Older adults are at increased risk both of falling and of experiencing accidental domestic fire. In addition to advanced age, these adverse events share the risk factors of balance or mobility problems, cognitive impairment and socioeconomic deprivation. For both events, the consequences include significant injury and death, and considerable socioeconomic costs for the individual and informal carers, as well as for emergency services, health and social care agencies. Secondary prevention services for older people who have fallen or who are identifiable as being at high risk of falling include NHS Falls clinics, where a multidisciplinary team offers an individualised multifactorial targeted intervention including strength and balance exercise programmes, medication changes and home hazard modification. A similar preventative approach is employed by most Fire and Rescue Services who conduct Home Fire Safety Visits to assess and, if necessary, remedy domestic fire risk, fit free smoke alarms with instruction for use and maintenance, and plan an escape route. We propose that the similarity of population at risk, location, specific risk factors and the commonality of preventative approaches employed could offer net gains in terms of feasibility, effectiveness and acceptability if activities within these two preventative approaches were to be combined. Methods/Design This prospective proof of concept study, currently being conducted in two London boroughs, (Southwark and Lambeth) aims to reduce the incidence of both fires and falls in community-dwelling older adults. It comprises two concurrent 12-month interventions: the integration of 1) fall risk assessments into the Brigade's Home Fire Safety Visit and 2) fire risk assessments into Falls services by inviting older clinic attendees to book a Visit. Our primary objective is to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of these interventions. Furthermore, we are evaluating their acceptability and value to key stakeholders and services users. Discussion If our approach proves feasible and the risk assessment is both effective and acceptable, we envisage advocating a partnership model of working more broadly to fire and rescue services and health services in Britain, such that effective integration of preventative services for older people becomes routine for an ageing population. PMID:21129185

El Niño Could Drive Intense Season for Amazon Fires

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

El Niño conditions in 2015 and early 2016 altered rainfall patterns around the world. In the Amazon, El Niño reduced rainfall during the wet season, leaving the region drier at the start of the 2016 dry season than any year since 2002, according to NASA satellite data. Wildfire risk for the dry season months of July to October this year now exceeds fire risk in 2005 and 2010, drought years when wildfires burned large areas of Amazon rainforest, said Doug Morton, an Earth scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who helped create the fire forecast. "Severe drought conditions at the start of the dry season set the stage for extreme fire risk in 2016 across the southern Amazon," Morton said. The Amazon fire forecast uses the relationship between climate and active fire detections from NASA satellites to predict fire season severity during the region’s dry season. Developed in 2011 by scientists at University of California, Irvine and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the forecast model is focused particularly on the link between sea surface temperatures and fire activity. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic oceans shift rainfall away from the Amazon region, increasing the risk of fires during dry season months. Read more: go.nasa.gov/2937ADt NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Understanding the transmission of wildfire risk on a fire prone landscape - A Case study from Central Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, Alan; Barros, Ana; Day, Michelle; Preisler, Haiganoush; Evers, Cody

2015-04-01

We develop the idea of risk transmission from large wildfires and apply network analyses to understand its importance within the 3.2 million ha Fire-People-Forest study area in central Oregon, US. Historic wildfires within the study and elsewhere in the western US frequently burn over long distances (e.g., 20-50 km) through highly fragmented landscapes with respect to ownership, fuels, management intensity, population density, and ecological conditions. The collective arrangement of fuel loadings in concert with weather and suppression efforts ultimately determines containment and the resulting fire perimeter. While spatial interactions among land parcels in terms of fire spread and intensity have been frequently noted by fire managers, quantifying risk and exposure transmission is not well understood. In this paper we used simulation modeling to quantify wildfire transmission and built a transmission network among and within land owners and communities within the study area. The results suggested that 84% of the predicted area burned within the 25 communities in the study area was from simulated fires that ignited on federal lands. The wildland urban interface surrounding the communities was predicted to burn at a rate of 2 % per year, with 57% of the area burned from fires ignited on federal lands. The node degree for communities indicated that simulated fires originated on about 6 different landowners. Network analyses in general revealed independent variation in transmitted fire among landowners in terms of both node degree (diversity of landowners exchanging fire) and transmitted fire, indicating that both the spatial grain of land ownership and wildfire topology contribute to transmission among land parcels. We discuss how network analyses of wildfire transmission can inform fire management goals for creating fire adapted communities, conserving biodiversity, and resolving competing demands for fire-prone ecosystem services. We also discuss how biophysical fire networks can potentially be coupled with social fire networks to improve wildfire mitigation planning.

Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

2008-12-01

Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from wildfires, agricultural and woodfuel burning will be quantified and drivers identified. Future projections of climate and land use change are applied to the model to investigate joint effects on future changes in fire, deforestation and vegetation dynamics in the Amazon basin.

Forest fire risk zonation mapping using remote sensing technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Sunil; Arora, M. K.

2006-12-01

Forest fires cause major losses to forest cover and disturb the ecological balance in our region. Rise in temperature during summer season causing increased dryness, increased activity of human beings in the forest areas, and the type of forest cover in the Garhwal Himalayas are some of the reasons that lead to forest fires. Therefore, generation of forest fire risk maps becomes necessary so that preventive measures can be taken at appropriate time. These risk maps shall indicate the zonation of the areas which are in very high, high, medium and low risk zones with regard to forest fire in the region. In this paper, an attempt has been made to generate the forest fire risk maps based on remote sensing data and other geographical variables responsible for the occurrence of fire. These include altitude, temperature and soil variations. Key thematic data layers pertaining to these variables have been generated using various techniques. A rule-based approach has been used and implemented in GIS environment to estimate fuel load and fuel index leading to the derivation of fire risk zonation index and subsequently to fire risk zonation maps. The fire risk maps thus generated have been validated on the ground for forest types as well as for forest fire risk areas. These maps would help the state forest departments in prioritizing their strategy for combating forest fires particularly during the fire seasons.

Long-term temporal changes in the occurrence of a high forest fire danger in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mäkelä, H. M.; Laapas, M.; Venäläinen, A.

2012-08-01

Climate variation and change influence several ecosystem components including forest fires. To examine long-term temporal variations of forest fire danger, a fire danger day (FDD) model was developed. Using mean temperature and total precipitation of the Finnish wildfire season (June-August), the model describes the climatological preconditions of fire occurrence and gives the number of fire danger days during the same time period. The performance of the model varied between different regions in Finland being best in south and west. In the study period 1908-2011, the year-to-year variation of FDD was large and no significant increasing or decreasing tendencies could be found. Negative slopes of linear regression lines for FDD could be explained by the simultaneous, mostly not significant increases in precipitation. Years with the largest wildfires did not stand out from the FDD time series. This indicates that intra-seasonal variations of FDD enable occurrence of large-scale fires, despite the whole season's fire danger is on an average level. Based on available monthly climate data, it is possible to estimate the general fire conditions of a summer. However, more detailed input data about weather conditions, land use, prevailing forestry conventions and socio-economical factors would be needed to gain more specific information about a season's fire risk.

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in reducing post-fire runoff and erosion at plot scale with the RUSLE, MMF and PESERA models.

PubMed

Vieira, D C S; Serpa, D; Nunes, J P C; Prats, S A; Neves, R; Keizer, J J

2018-08-01

Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters, make this a region prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. This threat is expected to be aggravated in the future due to climate change and land management practices and planning. The wide recognition of wildfires as a driver for runoff and erosion in burnt forest areas has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire management operations to mitigate these responses. In this study, the effectiveness of two post-fire treatments (hydromulch and natural pine needle mulch) in reducing post-fire runoff and soil erosion was evaluated against control conditions (i.e. untreated conditions), at different spatial scales. The main objective of this study was to use field data to evaluate the ability of different erosion models: (i) empirical (RUSLE), (ii) semi-empirical (MMF), and (iii) physically-based (PESERA), to predict the hydrological and erosive response as well as the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in fire-affected areas. The results of this study showed that all three models were reasonably able to reproduce the hydrological and erosive processes occurring in burned forest areas. In addition, it was demonstrated that the models can be calibrated at a small spatial scale (0.5 m 2 ) but provide accurate results at greater spatial scales (10 m 2 ). From this work, the RUSLE model seems to be ideal for fast and simple applications (i.e. prioritization of areas-at-risk) mainly due to its simplicity and reduced data requirements. On the other hand, the more complex MMF and PESERA models would be valuable as a base of a possible tool for assessing the risk of water contamination in fire-affected water bodies and for testing different land management scenarios. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulations of Forest Fires by the Cellular Automata Model "ABBAMPAU"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Gregorio, S.; Bendicenti, E.

2003-04-01

Forest fires represent a serious environmental problem, whose negative impact is becoming day by day more worrisome. Forest fires are very complex phenomena; that need an interdisciplinary approach. The adopted method to modelling involves the definition of local rules, from which the global behaviour of the system can emerge. The paradigm of Cellular Automata was applied and the model ABBAMPAU was projected to simulate the evolution of forest fires. Cellular Automata features (parallelism and a-centrism) seem to match the system "forest fire"; the parameters, describing globally a forest fire, i.e. propagation rate, flame length and direction, fireline intensity, fire duration time et c. are mainly depending on some local characteristics i.e. vegetation type (live and dead fuel), relative humidity, fuel moisture, heat, territory morphology (altitude, slope), et c.. The only global characteristic is given by wind velocity and direction, but wind velocity and direction is locally altered according to the morphology; therefore wind has also to be considered at local level. ABBAMPAU accounts for the following aspects of the phenomenon: effects of combustion in surface and crown fire inside the cell, crown fire triggering off; surface and crown fire spread, determination of the local wind rate and direction. A validation of ABBAMPAU was tested on a real case of forest fire, in the territory of Villaputzu, Sardinia island, August 22nd, 1998. First simulations account for the main characteristics of the phenomenon and agree with the observations. The results show that the model could be applied for the forest fire preventions, the productions of risk scenarios and the evaluation of the forest fire environmental impact.

Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy.

PubMed

Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Alcasena, Fermin J; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Spano, Donatella

2015-01-01

In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September. Peak burn probability and flame length were observed in late July. We found that patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity were mainly related to spatiotemporal variation in ignition locations, fuel moisture, and wind vectors. Our modeling approach allowed consideration of historical patterns of winds, ignition locations, and live and dead fuel moisture on fire exposure factors. The methodology proposed can be useful for analyzing potential wildfire risk and effects at landscape scale, evaluating historical changes and future trends in wildfire exposure, as well as for addressing and informing fuel management and risk mitigation issues.

Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

2011-12-01

Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of area impacted by fire from the total available area within a given value of the Fire Occurrence Index (FOI) increased from 9.e-06 at FOI < 3 to 28.e-06 at 25 < FOI <= 28. Additionally, the model has revealed a new important relationship between fire occurrence, anthropogenic activity, and fire weather. Data analysis has demonstrated that human activity can alter the expected weather/fire occurrence relationships and result in considerable modifications of fire regimes contrary to the assumed ecological parameters. Specifically, between 2001 and 2009 over 50% of total fire impacted area burned during the low fire danger conditions (Canadian Fire Weather Index < 5). These findings and the FOM capabilities offer a new theoretical construct and an advanced tool for assessing the potential impacts of climate changes on fire regimes, particularly within landscapes which are impacted strongly by human activities. Future development of the FOM will focus on ingesting and internal downscaling of climate variables produced by General or Regional Circulation Models to develop scenarios of potential future change in fire occurrence under the influence of projected climate change at the appropriate regional or landscape scales.

An assessment of the risk arising from electrical effects associated with the release of carbon fibers from general aviation aircraft fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfield, D.; Fiksel, J.

1980-01-01

A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses through 1993 due to potential electric effects of carbon fibers released from United States general aviation aircraft in the aftermath of a fire. Of the expected 354 annual general aviation aircraft accidents with fire projected for 1993, approximately 88 could involve carbon fibers. The average annual loss was estimated to be about $250 (1977 dollars) and the likelihood of exceeding $107,000 (1977 dollars) in annual loss in any one year was estimated to be at most one in ten thousand.

Fire interest and antisociality as risk factors in the severity and persistence of juvenile firesetting.

PubMed

MacKay, Sherri; Henderson, Joanna; Del Bove, Giannetta; Marton, Peter; Warling, Diane; Root, Carol

2006-09-01

In the DSM-IV-TR, firesetting is included as a criterion for the diagnoses of conduct disorder and pyromania. The link between firesetting and antisocial behavior is well established in the empirical literature. Although theoretical models of firesetting often include fire interest as a putative risk factor, there is little research on the role of fire interest in firesetting or on the construct of pyromania. The present study evaluated a sample of children and adolescents referred to an outpatient specialty program for juvenile firesetters with firesetting as the primary presenting problem. By assessing fire interest and antisocial behavior concurrently, the contribution of fire interest to firesetting after controlling for the role of conduct problems was evaluated. Results revealed that fire interest and antisocial behavior were significantly and positively correlated. Moreover, variations in fire interest added to the prediction of firesetting severity at assessment and firesetting recidivism at 18-month follow-up above and beyond what was predicted by antisociality alone. These findings have implications for an empirically derived taxonomy of pathological firesetting.

Application of a mesoscale atmospheric coupled fire model BRAMS-SFIRE to Alentejo wildland fire and comparison of performance with the fire model WRF-SFIRE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menezes, Isilda; Freitas, Saulo; Stockler, Rafael; Mello, Rafael; Ribeiro, Nuno; Corte-Real, João; Surový, Peter

2015-04-01

Models of fuel with the identification of vegetation patterns of Montado ecosystem in Portugal was incorporated in the mesoscale Brazilian Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) and coupled with a spread wildland fire model. The BRAMS-FIRE is a new system developed by the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil) and the Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrâneas (ICAAM, Portugal). The fire model used in this effort was originally, developed by Mandel et al. (2013) and further incorporated in the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). Two grids of high spatial resolution were configured with surface input data and fuel models integrated for simulations using both models BRAMS-SFIRE and WRF-SFIRE. One grid was placed in the plain land and the other one in the hills to evaluate different types of fire propagation and calibrate BRAMS-SFIRE. The objective is simulating the effects of atmospheric circulation in local scale, namely the movements of the heat front and energy release associated to it, obtained by this two models in an episode of wildland fire which took place in Alentejo area in the last decade, for application to planning and evaluations of agro wildland fire risks. We aim to model the behavior of forest fires through a set of equations whose solutions provide quantitative values of one or more variables related to the propagation of fire, described by semi-empirical expressions that are complemented by experimental data allow to obtain the main variables related advancing the perimeter of the fire, as the propagation speed, the intensity of the fire front and fuel consumption and its interaction with atmospheric dynamic system References Mandel, J., J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, and M. Vejmelka, 2013. New features in WRF-SFIRE and the wildfire forecasting and danger system in Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, submitted, Numerical Wildfires, Cargèse, France, May 13-18, 2013.

Investigating the effect of banning non-reduced ignition propensity cigarettes on fatal residential fires in Sweden.

PubMed

Bonander, Carl M; Jonsson, Anders P; Nilson, Finn T

2016-04-01

Annually, 100 people die as a result of residential fires in Sweden and almost a third of the fatal fires are known to be caused by smoking. In an attempt to reduce the occurrence of these events, reduced ignition propensity (RIP) cigarettes have been developed. They are designed to reduce the risk of fire by preventing the cigarette from burning through the full length when left unattended. In November 2011, a ban was introduced, forbidding the production and sale of all non-RIP cigarettes in all member states of the European Union, including Sweden. Monthly data on all recorded residential fires and associated fatalities in Sweden from January 2000 to December 2013 were analyzed using an interrupted time series design. The effect of the intervention [in relative risk (RR)] was quantified using generalised additive models for location, shape and scale. There were no statistically significant intervention effects on residential fires (RR 0.95 [95% CI: 0.89-1.01]), fatal residential fires (RR 0.99 [95% CI: 0.80-1.23]), residential fires where smoking was a known cause (RR 1.10 [95% CI: 0.95-1.28]) or fatal residential fires where smoking was a known cause (RR 0.92 [95% CI: 0.63-1.35]). No evidence of an effect of the ban on all non-RIP cigarettes on the risk of residential fires in Sweden was found. The results may not be generalisable to other countries. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Predicting fire impact from plant traits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoof, Cathelijne; Ottink, Roos; Zylstra, Philip; Cornelissen, Hans; Fernandes, Paulo

2017-04-01

Fire can considerably increase the landscape's vulnerability to flooding and erosion, which is in part caused by fire-induced soil heating, vegetation removal and resulting hydrological changes. While the magnitude of these fire effects and ecosystem responses is frequently studied, there is still little attention for the fundamental mechanisms that drive these changes. One example is on the effect of plants: while it is known that plants can alter the fire environment, there is a major knowledge gap regarding the fundamental mechanisms by which vegetation mediates fire impact on soil and hydrology. Essential to identifying these mechanisms is consideration of the effects of vegetation on flammability and fire behaviour, which are studied both in ecology and traditional fire science. Here we discuss the challenges of integrating these very distinct fields and the potential benefits of this integration for improved understanding of fire effects on soil and hydrology. We furthermore present results of a study in which we assessed the spatial drivers controlling the proportion of live and dead fuel in a natural park in northern Portugal, and evaluated the impacts on the spatial variability of fire behaviour and potential soil heating using BehavePlus modeling. Better understanding of the role of (spatial variability in) plant traits on fire impact can facilitate the development of risk maps to ultimately help predict and mitigate fire risk and impact across landscapes.

Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

PubMed

Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

2012-12-01

Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

The normalised wildfire ash index (NWAI): a remote sensing approach for quantifying post-wildfire ash loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chris, Chafer; Doerr, Stefan; Santin, Cristina

2017-04-01

The impacts of wildfire ash, the powdery residue from fuel burning, on post-fire ecosystems are many and diverse. Ash is a source of nutrients and can help the recovery of vegetation. It can also contain substantial amounts of recalcitrant carbon and thus contribute to long-term carbon storage. In its initial state, the ash layer on the ground can protect the bare soil, mitigating post-fire water erosion by runoff. However, when the adsorbent capability of this layer is exceeded, ash can be transported into the hydrological network and be a major contributor to water contamination. Ash can also contribute to post-fire mass movements such as debris flows. The eco-hydro-geomorphic impacts of ash on post-fire ecosystems are therefore important, but remain poorly quantified. A fundamental step in that direction is the understanding of ash production and distribution at the landscape scale, which would allow incorporating ash as a key parameter into post-fire risk models. We have developed a new spectral index (NWAI) using Landsat imagery to model the spatial distribution of ash loads in the post-fire landscape. It was developed based on a severe wildfire that burnt 13,000 ha of dry eucalyptus forest near Sydney and has also been tested for a forested area burnt by the catastrophic 2009 Black Saturday fires near Melbourne. Although ecosystem and fire characteristics differed substantially between the Sydney and Melbourne fires, our NWAI index performs well. In this contribution we will discuss the (i) the principles of the NWAI and (ii) its potential for pollution risk forecasting.

Mortality due to Vegetation Fire–Originated PM2.5 Exposure in Europe—Assessment for the Years 2005 and 2008

PubMed Central

Kollanus, Virpi; Prank, Marje; Gens, Alexandra; Soares, Joana; Vira, Julius; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Sofiev, Mikhail; Salonen, Raimo O.; Lanki, Timo

2016-01-01

Background: Vegetation fires can release substantial quantities of fine particles (PM2.5), which are harmful to health. The fire smoke may be transported over long distances and can cause adverse health effects over wide areas. Objective: We aimed to assess annual mortality attributable to short-term exposures to vegetation fire–originated PM2.5 in different regions of Europe. Methods: PM2.5 emissions from vegetation fires in Europe in 2005 and 2008 were evaluated based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data on fire radiative power. Atmospheric transport of the emissions was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) chemical transport model. Mortality impacts were estimated for 27 European countries based on a) modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations and b) population data, both presented in a 50 × 50 km2 spatial grid; c) an exposure–response function for short-term PM2.5 exposure and daily nonaccidental mortality; and d) country-level data for background mortality risk. Results: In the 27 countries overall, an estimated 1,483 and 1,080 premature deaths were attributable to the vegetation fire–originated PM2.5 in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Estimated impacts were highest in southern and eastern Europe. However, all countries were affected by fire-originated PM2.5, and even the lower concentrations in western and northern Europe contributed substantially (~ 30%) to the overall estimate of attributable mortality. Conclusions: Our assessment suggests that air pollution caused by PM2.5 released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health in Europe. Moreover, the risk can be expected to increase in the future as climate change proceeds. This factor should be taken into consideration when evaluating the overall health and socioeconomic impacts of these fires. Citation: Kollanus V, Prank M, Gens A, Soares J, Vira J, Kukkonen J, Sofiev M, Salonen RO, Lanki T. 2017. Mortality due to vegetation fire–originated PM2.5 exposure in Europe—assessment for the years 2005 and 2008. Environ Health Perspect 125:30–37; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP194 PMID:27472655

How well does the Post-fire Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) really work?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William; Lewis, Sarah; Miller, Mary Ellen

2016-04-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective postfire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed to assist post fire assessment teams identify high erosion risk areas and effectiveness of various mitigation treatments to reduce that risk. ERMiT is a web-based application that uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) technology to estimate erosion, in probabilistic terms, on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands with and without the application of mitigation treatments. User inputs are processed by ERMiT to combine rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity and soil properties which are then used as WEPP inputs. Since 2007, the model has been used in making hundreds of land management decisions in the US and elsewhere. We use eight published field study sites in the Western US to compare ERMiT predictions to observed hillslope erosion rates. Most sites experience only a few rainfall events that produced runoff and sediment except for a California site with a Mediterranean climate. When hillslope erosion occurred, significant correlations occurred between the observed hillslope erosion and those predicted by ERMiT. Significant correlation occurred for most mitigation treatments as well as the five recovery years. These model validation results suggest reasonable estimates of probabilistic post-fire hillslope sediment delivery when compared to observation.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Forest Fire Risk and Danger Using LANDSAT Imagery.

PubMed

Saglam, Bülent; Bilgili, Ertugrul; Dincdurmaz, Bahar; Kadiogulari, Ali Ihsan; Kücük, Ömer

2008-06-20

Computing fire danger and fire risk on a spatio-temporal scale is of crucial importance in fire management planning, and in the simulation of fire growth and development across a landscape. However, due to the complex nature of forests, fire risk and danger potential maps are considered one of the most difficult thematic layers to build up. Remote sensing and digital terrain data have been introduced for efficient discrete classification of fire risk and fire danger potential. In this study, two time-series data of Landsat imagery were used for determining spatio-temporal change of fire risk and danger potential in Korudag forest planning unit in northwestern Turkey. The method comprised the following two steps: (1) creation of indices of the factors influencing fire risk and danger; (2) evaluation of spatio-temporal changes in fire risk and danger of given areas using remote sensing as a quick and inexpensive means and determining the pace of forest cover change. Fire risk and danger potential indices were based on species composition, stand crown closure, stand development stage, insolation, slope and, proximity of agricultural lands to forest and distance from settlement areas. Using the indices generated, fire risk and danger maps were produced for the years 1987 and 2000. Spatio-temporal analyses were then realized based on the maps produced. Results obtained from the study showed that the use of Landsat imagery provided a valuable characterization and mapping of vegetation structure and type with overall classification accuracy higher than 83%.

Fire Risk Assessment of Some Indian Coals Using Radial Basis Function (RBF) Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nimaje, Devidas; Tripathy, Debi Prasad

2017-04-01

Fires, whether surface or underground, pose serious and environmental problems in the global coal mining industry. It is causing huge loss of coal due to burning and loss of lives, sterilization of coal reserves and environmental pollution. Most of the instances of coal mine fires happening worldwide are mainly due to the spontaneous combustion. Hence, attention must be paid to take appropriate measures to prevent occurrence and spread of fire. In this paper, to evaluate the different properties of coals for fire risk assessment, forty-nine in situ coal samples were collected from major coalfields of India. Intrinsic properties viz. proximate and ultimate analysis; and susceptibility indices like crossing point temperature, flammability temperature, Olpinski index and wet oxidation potential method of Indian coals were carried out to ascertain the liability of coal to spontaneous combustion. Statistical regression analysis showed that the parameters of ultimate analysis provide significant correlation with all investigated susceptibility indices as compared to the parameters of proximate analysis. Best correlated parameters (ultimate analysis) were used as inputs to the radial basis function network model. The model revealed that Olpinski index can be used as a reliable method to assess the liability of Indian coals to spontaneous combustion.

ArcFuels10 system overview

Treesearch

Nicole M. Vaillant; Alan A. Ager; John Anderson

2013-01-01

Fire behavior modeling and geospatial analyses can provide tremendous insight for land managers as they grapple with the complex problems frequently encountered in wildfire risk assessments and fire and fuels management planning. Fuel management often is a particularly complicated process in which the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments need to be...

Effects of Climate and Fuels Management on Wildfire Occurrence, Size, Severity and Emissions in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Fites, J. A.; Keyser, A.

2015-12-01

Annual wildfire burned area in federally managed Sierra Nevada forests has increased by more than 10,000 ha per decade since the early 1970s. At the same time, recent years have seen some extremely large fires compared to the historical record, with significant areas of moderate to high severity fire (e.g., McNally 2002, Rim 2013, King 2014 fires). Changes to fuels and fire regimes due to fire suppression and land use, as well as warming temperatures and the occurrence of drought, are thought to be significant factors contributing to increased risks of large, severe fires in Sierra Nevada forests. Over 70% of the vegetated area in federally managed forests in the Sierra Nevada is classified as having altered fuels and fire regimes, while average annual temperature in the Sierra Nevada has been above the long term mean for all but four years in the past two decades. As climate is expected to continue warming for decades to come, we explored fuels management scenarios as the primary tools available to modify risks of large, severe wildfires. We developed experimental statistical models of fire occurrence, fire size, and high severity burned area, to explore the interaction between climate and altered fuels conditions. These models were applied to historical climate conditions, a sample of future climate projections, and to both current fuels conditions and a range of scenarios for fuels treatments. Emissions from wildfires were estimated using the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Our models project that average annual burned area in the Sierra Nevada will more than double by mid-century. Similarly, particulate and other pollution emissions from Sierra Nevada wildfires are projected to more than double, even if future fire severity does not change. Fuels treatment scenarios significantly reduced simulated future burned area and emissions below untreated projections. High severity burned area responded to both climate and fuels treatments. A sensitivity analysis indicated that in areas where the fraction of highly altered fuels is high, successfully restoring fuels to prehistoric conditions could more than compensate for expected climate change effects on fire severity by mid-century.

An evaluation of image based techniques for wildfire detection and fuel mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabbert, Dustin W.

Few events can cause the catastrophic impact to ecology, infrastructure, and human safety of a wildland fire along the wildland urban interface. The suppression of natural wildland fires over the past decade has caused a buildup of dry, dead surface fuels: a condition that, coupled with the right weather conditions, can cause large destructive wildfires that are capable of threatening both ancient tree stands and manmade infrastructure. Firefighters use fire danger models to determine staffing needs on high fire risk days; however models are only as effective as the spatial and temporal density of their observations. OKFIRE, an Oklahoma initiative created by a partnership between Oklahoma State University and the University of Oklahoma, has proven that fire danger assessments close to the fire - both geographically and temporally - can give firefighters a significant increase in their situational awareness while fighting a wildland fire. This paper investigates several possible solutions for a small Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) which could gather information useful for detecting ground fires and constructing fire danger maps. Multiple fire detection and fuel mapping programs utilize satellites, manned aircraft, and large UAS equipped with hyperspectral sensors to gather useful information. Their success provides convincing proof of the utility that could be gained from low-altitude UAS gathering information at the exact time and place firefighters and land managers are interested in. Close proximity, both geographically and operationally, to the end can reduce latency times below what could ever be possible with satellite observation. This paper expands on recent advances in computer vision, photogrammetry, and infrared and color imagery to develop a framework for a next-generation UAS which can assess fire danger and aid firefighters in real time as they observe, contain, or extinguish wildland fires. It also investigates the impact information gained by this system could have on pre-fire risk assessments through the development of very high resolution fuel maps.

An Evaluation of Image Based Techniques for Early Wildfire Detection and Fuel Mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gabbert, Dustin W.

Few events can cause the catastrophic impact to ecology, infrastructure, and human safety of a wildland fire along the wildland urban interface. The suppression of natural wildland fires over the past decade has caused a buildup of dry, dead surface fuels: a condition that, coupled with the right weather conditions, can cause large destructive wildfires that are capable of threatening both ancient tree stands and manmade infrastructure. Firefighters use fire danger models to determine staffing needs on high fire risk days; however models are only as effective as the spatial and temporal density of their observations. OKFIRE, an Oklahoma initiativemore » created by a partnership between Oklahoma State University and the University of Oklahoma, has proven that fire danger assessments close to the fire – both geographically and temporally – can give firefighters a significant increase in their situational awareness while fighting a wildland fire. This paper investigates several possible solutions for a small Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) which could gather information useful for detecting ground fires and constructing fire danger maps. Multiple fire detection and fuel mapping programs utilize satellites, manned aircraft, and large UAS equipped with hyperspectral sensors to gather useful information. Their success provides convincing proof of the utility that could be gained from low-altitude UAS gathering information at the exact time and place firefighters and land managers are interested in. Close proximity, both geographically and operationally, to the end can reduce latency times below what could ever be possible with satellite observation. This paper expands on recent advances in computer vision, photogrammetry, and infrared and color imagery to develop a framework for a next-generation UAS which can assess fire danger and aid firefighters in real time as they observe, contain, or extinguish wildland fires. It also investigates the impact information gained by this system could have on pre-fire risk assessments through the development of very high resolution fuel maps.« less

A General Model of Dioxin Contamination in Breast Milk: Results from a Study on 94 Women from the Caserta and Naples Areas in Italy

PubMed Central

Rivezzi, Gaetano; Piscitelli, Prisco; Scortichini, Giampiero; Giovannini, Armando; Diletti, Gianfranco; Migliorati, Giacomo; Ceci, Roberta; Rivezzi, Giulia; Cirasino, Lorenzo; Carideo, Pietro; Black, Dennis M.; Garzillo, Carmine; Giani, Umberto

2013-01-01

Background: The Caserta and Naples areas in Campania Region experience heavy environmental contamination due to illegal waste disposal and burns, thus representing a valuable setting to develop a general model of human contamination with dioxins (PCDDs-PCDFs) and dioxin-like-PCBs (dl-PCBs). Methods: 94 breastfeeding women (aged 19–32 years; mean age 27.9 ± 3.0) were recruited to determine concentrations of PCDDs-PCDFs and dl-PCBs in their milk. Individual milk samples were collected and analyzed according to standard international procedures. A generalized linear model was used to test potential predictors of pollutant concentration in breast milk: age, exposure to waste fires, cigarette smoking, diet, and residence in high/low risk area (defined at high/low environmental pressure by a specific 2007 WHO report). A Structural Equation Model (SEM) analysis was carried out by taking into account PCDDs-PCDFs and dl-PCBs as endogenous variables and age, waste fires, risk area and smoking as exogenous variables. Results: All milk samples were contaminated by PCDDs-PCDFs (8.6 pg WHO-TEQ/98g fat ± 2.7; range 3.8–19) and dl-PCBs (8.0 pg WHO-TEQ/98g fat ± 3.7; range 2.5–24), with their concentrations being associated with age and exposure to waste fires (p < 0.01). Exposure to fires resulted in larger increases of dioxins concentrations in people living in low risk areas than those from high risk areas (p < 0.01). Conclusions: A diffuse human exposure to persistent organic pollutants was observed in the Caserta and Naples areas. Dioxins concentration in women living in areas classified at low environmental pressure in 2007 WHO report was significantly influenced by exposure to burns. PMID:24217180

Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riley, Karin L.; Loehman, Rachel A.

2016-01-01

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of frequency and severity, and depending on the extent to which ecosystems are adapted) may maintain or restore ecosystem functionality; however, in areas that are highly departed from historical fire regimes or where there is disequilibrium between climate and vegetation, ecosystems may be rapidly and persistently altered by wildfires, especially those that burn under extreme conditions.

Introduction to fire danger rating and remote sensing - Will remote sensing enhance wildland fire danger prediction?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allgöwer, Britta; Carlson, J.D.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Chuvieco, Emilio

2003-01-01

While ‘Fire Danger’ per se cannot be measured, the physical properties of the biotic and abiotic world that relate to fire occurrence and fire behavior can. Today, increasingly sophisticated Remote Sensing methods are being developed to more accurately detect fuel properties such as species composition (fuel types), vegetation structure or plant water content - to name a few. Based on meteorological input data and physical, semi-physical or empirical model calculations, Wildland Fire Danger Rating Systems provide ‘indirect values’ - numerical indices - at different temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) denoting the physical conditions that may lead to fire ignition and support fire propagation. The results can be expressed as fire danger levels, ranging from ‘low’ to ‘very high’, and are commonly used in operational wildland fire management (e.g., the Canadian Fire Weather Index [FWI] System, the Russian Nesterov Index, or the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System [NFDRS]). Today, fire danger levels are often turned into broad scale maps with the help of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) showing the areas with the different fire danger levels, and are distributed via the World Wide Web.In this chapter we will outline some key issues dealing with Remote Sensing and GIS techniques that are covered in the following chapters, and elaborate how the Fire Danger Rating concepts could be integrated into a framework that enables comprehensive and sustainable wildland fire risk assessment. To do so, we will first raise some general thoughts about wildland fires and suggest how to approach this extremely complex phenomenon. Second, we will outline a possible fire risk analysis framework and third we will give a short overview on existing Fire Danger Rating Systems and the principles behind them.

Cigarette Fires Involving Upholstered Furniture in Residences: The Role that Smokers, Smoker Behavior, and Fire Standard Compliant Cigarettes Play.

PubMed

Butry, David T; Thomas, Douglas S

2017-05-01

Residential structure fires pose a significant risk to life and property. A major source of these fires is the ignition of upholstered furniture by cigarettes. It has long been established that cigarettes and other lighted tobacco products could ignite upholstered furniture and were a leading cause of fire deaths in residences. In recent years, states have adopted fire standard compliant cigarettes ('FSC cigarettes') that are made with a wrapping paper that contains regularly spaced bands, which increases the likelihood of self-extinguishment. This paper measures the effectiveness of FSC cigarettes on the number of residential fires involving upholstered furniture, and the resulting fatalities, injuries, and extent of flame spread, while accounting for the under-reporting of fire incidents. In total, four models were estimated using fire department data from 2002 to 2011. The results provide evidence that FSC cigarettes, on average, reduced the number of residential fires by 45 %, reduced fatalities by 23 %, and extent of flame spread by 27 % in 2011. No effect on injuries was found. Within each state, effectiveness is moderated by the number of smokers and their consumption patterns. In general, FSC cigarettes are more effective in places with a large smoking population who engage in heavier smoking. There is a very limited effect on the lightest of smokers, suggesting behavioral differences between heavy and light smokers that influence fire risk.

Cigarette Fires Involving Upholstered Furniture in Residences: The Role that Smokers, Smoker Behavior, and Fire Standard Compliant Cigarettes Play

PubMed Central

Butry, David T.; Thomas, Douglas S.

2017-01-01

Residential structure fires pose a significant risk to life and property. A major source of these fires is the ignition of upholstered furniture by cigarettes. It has long been established that cigarettes and other lighted tobacco products could ignite upholstered furniture and were a leading cause of fire deaths in residences. In recent years, states have adopted fire standard compliant cigarettes (‘FSC cigarettes’) that are made with a wrapping paper that contains regularly spaced bands, which increases the likelihood of self-extinguishment. This paper measures the effectiveness of FSC cigarettes on the number of residential fires involving upholstered furniture, and the resulting fatalities, injuries, and extent of flame spread, while accounting for the under-reporting of fire incidents. In total, four models were estimated using fire department data from 2002 to 2011. The results provide evidence that FSC cigarettes, on average, reduced the number of residential fires by 45 %, reduced fatalities by 23 %, and extent of flame spread by 27 % in 2011. No effect on injuries was found. Within each state, effectiveness is moderated by the number of smokers and their consumption patterns. In general, FSC cigarettes are more effective in places with a large smoking population who engage in heavier smoking. There is a very limited effect on the lightest of smokers, suggesting behavioral differences between heavy and light smokers that influence fire risk. PMID:28751788

Erosion Risks in Selected Watersheds for the 2005 School Fire Located Near Pomeroy, Washington on Predominately Ash-Cap Soils

Treesearch

William Elliot; Ina Sue Miller; Brandon Glaza

2007-01-01

A limited erosion potential analysis was carried out on the 50,000 acre School Fire. Three WEPP interfaces were used for the analysis, a GIS wizard, an online interface and a windows interface. Ten watersheds within the fire area were modeled with the GeoWEPP tool (a geo-spatial interface for WEPP, Water Erosion Predication Project). The watersheds covered 18,823 acres...

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

PubMed

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mapping regional patterns of large forest fires in Wildland-Urban Interface areas in Europe.

PubMed

Modugno, Sirio; Balzter, Heiko; Cole, Beth; Borrelli, Pasquale

2016-05-01

Over recent decades, Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) trends in many regions of Europe have reconfigured the landscape structures around many urban areas. In these areas, the proximity to landscape elements with high forest fuels has increased the fire risk to people and property. These Wildland-Urban Interface areas (WUI) can be defined as landscapes where anthropogenic urban land use and forest fuel mass come into contact. Mapping their extent is needed to prioritize fire risk control and inform local forest fire risk management strategies. This study proposes a method to map the extent and spatial patterns of the European WUI areas at continental scale. Using the European map of WUI areas, the hypothesis is tested that the distance from the nearest WUI area is related to the forest fire probability. Statistical relationships between the distance from the nearest WUI area, and large forest fire incidents from satellite remote sensing were subsequently modelled by logistic regression analysis. The first European scale map of the WUI extent and locations is presented. Country-specific positive and negative relationships of large fires and the proximity to the nearest WUI area are found. A regional-scale analysis shows a strong influence of the WUI zones on large fires in parts of the Mediterranean regions. Results indicate that the probability of large burned surfaces increases with diminishing WUI distance in touristic regions like Sardinia, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or in regions with a strong peri-urban component as Catalunya, Comunidad de Madrid, Comunidad Valenciana. For the above regions, probability curves of large burned surfaces show statistical relationships (ROC value > 0.5) inside a 5000 m buffer of the nearest WUI. Wise land management can provide a valuable ecosystem service of fire risk reduction that is currently not explicitly included in ecosystem service valuations. The results re-emphasise the importance of including this ecosystem service in landscape valuations to account for the significant landscape function of reducing the risk of catastrophic large fires. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Miguel M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Feridun Turkman, K.

2018-02-01

We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based on daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and is estimated using a daily model based on a generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger are then associated with daily probability estimated by the daily model. The model is calibrated using 13 years of data (2004-2016) and validated against the period of January-September 2017. Results obtained show that about 72 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the extreme class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than 1.5 times the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.

Fire behavior and risk analysis in spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert; Sacksteder, Kurt R.

1988-01-01

Practical risk management for present and future spacecraft, including space stations, involves the optimization of residual risks balanced by the spacecraft operational, technological, and economic limitations. Spacecraft fire safety is approached through three strategies, in order of risk: (1) control of fire-causing elements, through exclusion of flammable materials for example; (2) response to incipient fires through detection and alarm; and (3) recovery of normal conditions through extinguishment and cleanup. Present understanding of combustion in low gravity is that, compared to normal gravity behavior, fire hazards may be reduced by the absence of buoyant gas flows yet at the same time increased by ventilation flows and hot particle expulsion. This paper discusses the application of low-gravity combustion knowledge and appropriate aircraft analogies to fire detection, fire fighting, and fire-safety decisions for eventual fire-risk management and optimization in spacecraft.

A model for assessing water quality risk in catchments prone to wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langhans, Christoph; Smith, Hugh; Chong, Derek; Nyman, Petter; Lane, Patrick; Sheridan, Gary

2017-04-01

Post-fire debris flows can have erosion rates up to three orders of magnitude higher than background rates. They are major sources of fine suspended sediment, which is critical to the safety of water supply from forested catchments. Fire can cover parts or all of these large catchments and burn severity is often heterogeneous. The probability of spatial and temporal overlap of fire disturbance and rainfall events, and the susceptibility of hillslopes to severe erosion determine the risk to water quality. Here we present a model to calculate recurrence intervals of high magnitude sediment delivery from runoff-generated debris flows to a reservoir in a large catchment (>100 km2) accounting for heterogeneous burn conditions. Debris flow initiation was modelled with indicators of surface runoff and soil surface erodibility. Debris flow volume was calculated with an empirical model, and fine sediment delivery was calculated using simple, expert-based assumptions. In a Monte-Carlo simulation, wildfire was modelled with a fire spread model using historic data on weather and ignition probabilities for a forested catchment in central Victoria, Australia. Multiple high intensity storms covering the study catchment were simulated using Intensity-Frequency-Duration relationships, and the runoff indicator calculated with a runoff model for hillslopes. A sensitivity analysis showed that fine sediment is most sensitive to variables related to the texture of the source material, debris flow volume estimation, and the proportion of fine sediment transported to the reservoir. As a measure of indirect validation, denudation rates of 4.6 - 28.5 mm ka-1 were estimated and compared well to other studies in the region. From the results it was extrapolated that in the absence of fire management intervention the critical sediment concentrations in the studied reservoir could be exceeded in intervals of 18 - 124 years.

PROPAGATOR: a synchronous stochastic wildfire propagation model with distributed computation engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D´Andrea, M.; Fiorucci, P.; Biondi, G.; Negro, D.

2012-04-01

PROPAGATOR is a stochastic model of forest fire spread, useful as a rapid method for fire risk assessment. The model is based on a 2D stochastic cellular automaton. The domain of simulation is discretized using a square regular grid with cell size of 20x20 meters. The model uses high-resolution information such as elevation and type of vegetation on the ground. Input parameters are wind direction, speed and the ignition point of fire. The simulation of fire propagation is done via a stochastic mechanism of propagation between a burning cell and a non-burning cell belonging to its neighbourhood, i.e. the 8 adjacent cells in the rectangular grid. The fire spreads from one cell to its neighbours with a certain base probability, defined using vegetation types of two adjacent cells, and modified by taking into account the slope between them, wind direction and speed. The simulation is synchronous, and takes into account the time needed by the burning fire to cross each cell. Vegetation cover, slope, wind speed and direction affect the fire-propagation speed from cell to cell. The model simulates several mutually independent realizations of the same stochastic fire propagation process. Each of them provides a map of the area burned at each simulation time step. Propagator simulates self-extinction of the fire, and the propagation process continues until at least one cell of the domain is burning in each realization. The output of the model is a series of maps representing the probability of each cell of the domain to be affected by the fire at each time-step: these probabilities are obtained by evaluating the relative frequency of ignition of each cell with respect to the complete set of simulations. Propagator is available as a module in the OWIS (Opera Web Interfaces) system. The model simulation runs on a dedicated server and it is remote controlled from the client program, NAZCA. Ignition points of the simulation can be selected directly in a high-resolution, three-dimensional graphical representation of the Italian territory within NAZCA. The other simulation parameters, namely wind speed and direction, number of simulations, computing grid size and temporal resolution, can be selected from within the program interface. The output of the simulation is showed in real-time during the simulation, and are also available off-line and on the DEWETRA system, a Web GIS-based system for environmental risk assessment, developed according to OGC-INSPIRE standards. The model execution is very fast, providing a full prevision for the scenario in few minutes, and can be useful for real-time active fire management and suppression.

Risk-based Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Issacci, F.; Paulos, T.; Jones, S.; Paxton, K.; Paul, M.

1992-01-01

Viewgraphs on risk-based spacecraft fire safety experiments are presented. Spacecraft fire risk can never be reduced to a zero probability. Probabilistic risk assessment is a tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

Forest construction infrastructures for the prevision, suppression, and protection before and after forest fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drosos, Vasileios C.; Giannoulas, Vasileios J.; Daoutis, Christodoulos

2014-08-01

Climatic changes cause temperature rise and thus increase the risk of forest fires. In Greece the forests with the greatest risk to fire are usually those located near residential and tourist areas where there are major pressures on land use changes, while there are no currently guaranteed cadastral maps and defined title deeds because of the lack of National and Forest Cadastre. In these areas the deliberate causes of forest fires are at a percentage more than 50%. This study focuses on the forest opening up model concerning both the prevention and suppression of forest fires. The most urgent interventions that can be done after the fire destructions is also studied in relation to soil protection constructions, in order to minimize the erosion and the torrential conditions. Digital orthophotos were used in order to produce and analyze spatial data using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Initially, Digital Elevation Models were generated, based on photogrammetry and forest areas as well as the forest road network were mapped. Road density, road distance, skidding distance and the opening up percentage were accurately measured for a forest complex. Finally, conclusions and suggestions have been drawn about the environmental compatibility of forest protection and wood harvesting works. In particular the contribution of modern technologies such as digital photogrammetry, remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems is very important, allowing reliable, effective and fast process of spatial analysis contributing to a successful planning of opening up works and fire protection.

Predicting Fire Severity and Hydrogeomorphic Effects for Wildland Fire Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyde, K.; Woods, S. W.; Calkin, D.; Ryan, K.; Keane, R.

2007-12-01

The Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) uses the Fire Spread Probability (FSPro) model to predict the spatial extent of fire, and to assess values-at-risk within probable spread zones. This information is used to support Appropriate Management Response (AMR), which involves decision making regarding fire-fighter deployment, fire suppression requirements, and identification of areas where fire may be safely permitted to take its course. Current WFDSS assessments are generally limited to a binary prediction of whether or not a fire will reach a given location and an assessment of the infrastructure which may be damaged or destroyed by fire. However, an emerging challenge is to expand the capabilities of WFDSS so that it also estimates the probable fire severity, and hence the effect on soil, vegetation and on hydrologic and geomorphic processes such as runoff and soil erosion. We present a conceptual framework within which derivatives of predictive fire modelling are used to predict impacts upon vegetation and soil, from which fire severity and probable post-fire watershed response can be inferred, before a fire actually occurs. Fire severity predictions are validated using Burned Area Reflectance Classification imagery. Recent tests indicate that satellite derived BARC images are a simple and effective means to predict post-fire erosion response based on relative vegetation disturbance. A fire severity prediction which reasonably approximates a BARC image may therefore be used to assess post-fire erosion and flood potential before fire reaches an area. This information may provide a new avenue of reliable support for fire management decisions.

How the science of injury prevention contributes to advancing home fire safety in the USA: successes and opportunities.

PubMed

Gielen, Andrea C; Frattaroli, Shannon; Pollack, Keshia M; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen G

2018-06-01

In the decades since the landmark report-America Burning-was published in 1973, the number of home fire deaths has shrunk from >5500 per year to 2650 in 2015. This paper: (1) describes how science and practice in injury prevention and fire and life safety contributed to successful interventions, and (2) identifies emerging strategies and future opportunities to prevent home fire-related deaths. The aims are addressed through the lens of population health research, with a focus on the work of selected Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-funded Injury Control Research Centers. Results are organised using the Haddon Matrix and an ecological model. We found evidence to support interventions that address all components of both the matrix and the model, including: reduced ignition propensity cigarettes, stop smoking campaigns, housing codes, residential sprinkler systems, smoke alarms, community risk reduction, school-based educational programmes, and fire and burn response systems. Future reductions are likely to come from enhancing residential sprinkler and smoke alarm technology, and increasing their utilisation; expanding the use of community risk reduction methods; and implementing new technological solutions. Despite the successes, substantial disparities in home fire death rates remain, reflecting underlying social determinants of health. Most of the evidence-supported interventions were focused on changing the policy and community environments to prevent home fires and reduce injury when a fire occurs. Future prevention efforts should give high priority to addressing the continued disparities in home fire deaths. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Wildfire spread, hazard and exposure metric raster grids for central Catalonia.

PubMed

Alcasena, Fermín J; Ager, Alan A; Salis, Michele; Day, Michelle A; Vega-Garcia, Cristina

2018-04-01

We provide 40 m resolution wildfire spread, hazard and exposure metric raster grids for the 0.13 million ha fire-prone Bages County in central Catalonia (northeastern Spain) corresponding to node influence grid (NIG), crown fraction burned (CFB) and fire transmission to residential houses (TR). Fire spread and behavior data (NIG, CFB and fire perimeters) were generated with fire simulation modeling considering wildfire season extreme fire weather conditions (97 th percentile). Moreover, CFB was also generated for prescribed fire (Rx) mild weather conditions. The TR smoothed grid was obtained with a geospatial analysis considering large fire perimeters and individual residential structures located within the study area. We made these raster grids available to assist in the optimization of wildfire risk management plans within the study area and to help mitigate potential losses from catastrophic events.

Structure ignition assessment model (SIAM)\\t

Treesearch

Jack D. Cohen

1995-01-01

Major wildland/urban interface fire losses, principally residences, continue to occur. Although the problem is not new, the specific mechanisms are not well known on how structures ignite in association with wildland fires. In response to the need for a better understanding of wildland/urban interface ignition mechanisms and a method of assessing the ignition risk,...

75 FR 40845 - Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at Structure Fires

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-14

... NIOSH 141-A] Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at Structure Fires AGENCY: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) of the Centers for... publication entitled ``Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at...

Urban fire risk control: House design, upgrading and replanning

PubMed Central

Mbuya, Elinorata Celestine

2018-01-01

Urbanisation leads to house densification, a phenomenon experienced in both planned and unplanned settlements in cities in developing countries. Such densification limits fire brigade access into settlements, thereby aggravating fire disaster risks. In this article, we assess the fire exposure and risks in residences in informal areas of Mchikichini ward, in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania. We rely on interviews of residents and government officials to obtain background on the occurrence and causes of fire accidents, policy provisions and regulations, and experiences with fire outbreaks and coping strategies, as well as on observations and measurements of house transformations, spatial quality and indoor real life. Our findings suggest that fire risks arise from both inappropriate structural characteristics and unsound behavioural practices. This includes unsafe electric practices by residents, poor capacity of residents to fight fires once started, limited access to structures by firefighting equipment because of flouting of planning regulations and inadequate awareness of local government leaders of the magnitude of fire risks. Potential changes to reduce fire risks in the settlement include the installation of firefighting systems, restriction of cooking to designated spaces, use of safer cooking energy sources and lighting means, improvements of vehicle access routes to neighbourhoods, capacity building at the grass root level and the establishment of community-based fire risk management.

Assessing the predictability of fire occurrence and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2014-01-01

Most fire protection agencies throughout the world have developed forest fire risk forecast systems, usually building upon existing fire danger indices and meteorological forecast data. In this context, the daily predictability of wildfires is of utmost importance in order to allow the fire protection agencies to issue timely fire hazard alerts. In this study, we address the predictability of daily fire occurrence using the components of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and related variables calculated from the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis, ERA-Interim. We develop daily fire occurrence models in peninsular Spain for the period 1990-2008 and, considering different minimum burned area thresholds for fire definition, assess their ability to reproduce the inter-annual fire frequency variability. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climate/fuel conditions. We then extend the analysis in order to assess the predictability of monthly burned areas. The sensitivity of the models to the level of spatial aggregation of the data is also evaluated. Additionally, we investigate the gain in model performance with the inclusion of socioeconomic and land use/land cover (LULC) covariates in model formulation. Fire occurrence models have attained good performance in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, being able to faithfully reproduce the inter-annual variability of fire frequency. Total area burned has exhibited some dependence on the meteorological drivers, although model performance was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire occurrence prediction in the study area. The results were improved when using aggregated data across regions compared to when data were sampled at the grid-box level. The inclusion of socioeconomic and LULC covariates contributed marginally to the improvement of the models, and in most cases attained no relevant contribution to total explained variance - excepting northern Spain, where anthropogenic factors are known to be the major driver of fires. Models of monthly fire counts performed better in the case of fires larger than 0.1 ha, and for the rest of the thresholds (1, 10 and 100 ha) the daily occurrence models improved the predicted inter-annual variability, indicating the added value of daily models. Fire frequency predictions may provide a preferable basis for past fire history reconstruction, long-term monitoring and the assessment of future climate impacts on fire regimes across regions, posing several advantages over burned area as a response variable. Our results leave the door open to the development a more complex modelling framework based on daily data from numerical climate model outputs based on the FWI system.

Preventing erosive risks after wildfire in Spain: advances and gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández Filgueira, Cristina; Vega Hidalgo, José A.; Fontúrbel Lliteras, Teresa

2017-04-01

Galicia (NW Spain) is one of the most wildfire-affected areas in Western Europe and where the highest soil losses following fire are recorded in the Iberian Peninsula. During the last decade, mitigation of hydrological and erosive risk has been an important objective for researchers and forest managers. For this reason, research carried out has focused on three main issues: i) the development of operational tools to prioritize post-fire soil stabilization actions, based on soil burn severity indicators and remote sensed information, and testing of their ability to reflect degradation risk in relevant soil properties and subsequent soil erosion, ii) the development and testing of different soil stabilization treatments and their effectiveness for reducing erosion, following their application at broad scale, under the specific environmental conditions of Galicia and iii) the assessment of the performance of current erosion models as well as the development of empirical models to predict post-fire soil losses. On the other hand, the use of forest resources is an essential component of the regional incomes in NW Spain and consequently there is a pressing necessity for investigation on techniques suitable for reconciling soil conservation and sustainable use of those resources. In the framework of wildfire impacts this involve many and complex challenges. This scenario contrast with most of the Iberian Peninsula under Mediterranean influence where salvage logging is not a priority. As in other regions, post-fire hydrologic and erosive risk modeling, including threatened resources vulnerability evaluation is also a capital research need, particularly in a climate change context where dramatic changes in drivers such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and fire regime are expected. The study was funded by the National Institute of Agricultural Research of Spain (INIA) through project RTA2014-00011-C06-02, cofunded by FEDER and the Plan de Mejora e Innovación Forestal de Galicia (2010-2020) and INDITEX.

Assessment of risk due to the use of carbon fiber composites in commercial and general aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiksel, J.; Rosenfield, D.; Kalelkar, A.

1980-01-01

The development of a national risk profile for the total annual aircraft losses due to carbon fiber composite (CFC) usage through 1993 is discussed. The profile was developed using separate simulation methods for commercial and general aviation aircraft. A Monte Carlo method which was used to assess the risk in commercial aircraft is described. The method projects the potential usage of CFC through 1993, investigates the incidence of commercial aircraft fires, models the potential release and dispersion of carbon fibers from a fire, and estimates potential economic losses due to CFC damaging electronic equipment. The simulation model for the general aviation aircraft is described. The model emphasizes variations in facility locations and release conditions, estimates distribution of CFC released in general aviation aircraft accidents, and tabulates the failure probabilities and aggregate economic losses in the accidents.

Forest fires in Italy: An econometric analysis of major driving factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michetti, Melania; Pinar, Mehmet

2013-04-01

Despite the relevant fire risk to which Italy is subject from north to south, very few analysis focus on this area. This article investigates the causes of forest fires frequency and intensity in Italy during the first decade of the XXI century. The dynamical aspects of fire danger are explored through the use of panel data techniques which fully capture the impacts on forest fires of changes in both socio-economic and climatic conditions. Italy is treated as a unique region in a first model specification, while it is then split into 3 geographical areas (north, centre, and south) to capture locally specific aspects. Two different dependent variables are alternatively employed and a number of ad hoc tests are performed to corroborate the robustness of our estimates. Results highlight the importance of considering the fire situation separately for the northern, central, and southern parts of Italy. While the presence of railway networks positively affects fire risk, the impact of livestock depends on its specific composition. Favourable effects in fire reduction are represented by the increase in education levels (north and centre) and touristic flows (north and south), and by the containment of illegal activities (south). Weather patterns appear to be important determinants all over the Italian peninsula.

Economic efficiency and risk character of fire management programs, Northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Thomas J. Mills; Frederick W. Bratten

1988-01-01

Economic efficiency and risk have long been considered during the selection of fire management programs and the design of fire management polices. The risk considerations was largely subjective, however, and efficiency has only recently been calculated for selected portions of the fire management program. The highly stochastic behavior of the fire system and the high...

Perceived risk of home fire and escape plans in rural households.

PubMed

Yang, Jingzhen; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Zwerling, Craig; Lundell, John

2006-01-01

Homes in rural areas have a higher fire death rate. Although successful exit from a home fire could greatly reduce fire-related deaths and injuries, little is known about factors associated with behaviors of developing and practicing an escape plan. Between July 2003 and June 2004, a baseline survey was administered, in person, to 691 rural households. Information collected included a history of previous home fire, perceived risk of home fire, existing smoke alarms and their working status, and home fire safety practices, as well as home and occupant characteristics. The association of residents' perceived risk of home fire and fire escape plans was assessed. Forty-two percent of rural households reported having a fire escape plan. Of the households with a plan, less than two thirds (56.9%) discussed or practiced the plan. Households with children were more likely to develop and practice a fire escape plan. Households with an elderly or disabled person were less likely to develop or practice the plan. Compared to respondents who perceived low or very low risk of home fire, those who perceived a high or very high risk had 3.5 times greater odds of having a fire escape plan and 5.5 times greater odds of discussion or practicing their plan. Increasing awareness of the potential risk of home fires may help occupants develop and practice home fire escape plans. In order to reduce fire deaths and injuries, different strategies need to be developed for those households in which the occupants lack the ability to escape.

RISICO: A decision support system (DSS) for dynamic wildfire risk evaluation in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo; Gaetani, Francesco; Negro, Dario

2010-05-01

The system RISICO provides Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) with daily wildland fire risk forecast maps relevant to the whole national territory since 2003. RISICO support the activities relating to Italian national forest fires warning system and National fires fighting air fleet. The RISICO system has a complex software architecture based on a framework able to manage geospatial data as well as time dependent information (e.g, Numerical Weather Prediction, real time meteorological observations, and satellite data). Within the system semi-physical models, able to simulate in space and time the variability of the fuel moisture content, are implemented. This parameter represents the main variable related with the ignition of a fire. Based on this information and introducing information on topography and wind field the model provides the rate of spread and the linear intensity of a potential fire generated by accidental or deliberate ignition. The model takes into account the vegetation patterns, in terms of fuel load and flammability. It needs territorial and meteorological data. Territorial data used by the system are vegetation cover and topography. Meteorological data are mainly represented by Numerical Weather Prediction (Limited Area model). Meteorological data provided in real time by a meteorological network are also used by the model as well as satellite data (e.g., vegetation index, snow cover). The output information are provided on a web-gis based system according with the OGC-INSPIRE standard. In 2007 the system has been improved introducing some changes both in the model structure and its functionality. Spatial resolution is increased up to 100m in the implementation at regional level. The fine fuel moisture model has been changed, introducing the FFMC of the CFFDRS with some slightly differences. In addition, a different nominal rate of spread (no-wind on flat terrain) has been introduced for each different class of vegetation. The operational chain of the RISICO system is considerably changed. In the first release the system run daily making use of observations only to define the initial state of the dead fine fuel moisture content. The new version of the system is able to run each 3-h making use of observations at each time step. In order to validate the RISICO system, the information obtained from the analysis of really occurred fires has been compared with the information generated by RISICO system. In particular, a data set of more than 11000 wildland fires occurred in Italy between 01/01/2007 and 31/12/2008 has been considered in the validation procedure. The performance indexes selected in order to measure the system effectiveness are relevant to the capability of identifying the correct danger classes with reference to the extension and duration of the fire. In this connection, a comparison between the performance obtained by the new release of the RISICO system and the previous one has been carried out highlighting separately the improvement given by the higher resolution, the model structure and the operational chain. The system RISICO is able to integrate the main Fire Hazard Indexes present in the literature providing a suitable tool for testing the different indexes on the same platform in different environmental and climatic conditions. Risico represents an operational approach to forest fires management both during the prevention and fire fighting phases. The prevention phase represents the main goal for the DPC. Prevention starts with a daily bulletin issue. The bulletin is based on RISICO data, forecast, meteorological data and other observed data such as active fires. The bulletin is dispatched to all operative bodies employed both in fire fighting and civil protection activities. During the fire fighting activities Risico support decision maker to define the best strategies. The objective of the paper is to promote the use of Fire Hazard Forecast as operational tool in fire risk prevention and management and to provide know-how for standardisation of the fire hazard "mapping" or "alert" systems in Europe. This work was funded by the Italian Civil Protection.

Improving fire season definition by optimized temporal modelling of daily human-caused ignitions.

PubMed

Costafreda-Aumedes, S; Vega-Garcia, C; Comas, C

2018-07-01

Wildfire suppression management is usually based on fast control of all ignitions, especially in highly populated countries with pervasive values-at-risk. To minimize values-at-risk loss by improving response time of suppression resources it is necessary to anticipate ignitions, which are mainly caused by people. Previous studies have found that human-ignition patterns change spatially and temporally depending on socio-economic activities, hence, the deployment of suppression resources along the year should consider these patterns. However, full suppression capacity is operational only within legally established fire seasons, driven by past events and budgets, which limits response capacity and increases damages out of them. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal definition of fire seasons from the perspective of human-ignition patterns for the case study of Spain, where people cause over 95% of fires. Humans engage in activities that use fire as a tool in certain periods within a year, and in locations linked to specific spatial factors. Geographic variables (population, infrastructures, physiography and land uses) were used as explanatory variables for human-ignition patterns. The changing influence of these geographic variables on occurrence along the year was analysed with day-by-day logistic regression models. Daily models were built for all the municipal units in the two climatic regions in Spain (Atlantic and Mediterranean Spain) from 2002 to 2014, and similar models were grouped within continuous periods, designated as ignition-based seasons. We found three ignition-based seasons in the Mediterranean region and five in the Atlantic zones, not coincidental with calendar seasons, but with a high degree of agreement with current legally designated operational fire seasons. Our results suggest that an additional late-winter-early-spring fire season in the Mediterranean area and the extension of this same season in the Atlantic zone should be re-considered for operational purposes in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic risk models for multiple disturbances: an example of forest insects and wildfires

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

2010-01-01

Building probabilistic risk models for highly random forest disturbances like wildfire and forest insect outbreaks is a challenging. Modeling the interactions among natural disturbances is even more difficult. In the case of wildfire and forest insects, we looked at the probability of a large fire given an insect outbreak and also the incidence of insect outbreaks...

Simulating high spatial resolution high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forests for California Spotted Owl habitat climate change risk assessment and management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, A.; Westerling, A. L.; Jones, G.; Peery, M. Z.

2017-12-01

Sierra Nevada forests have experienced an increase in very large fires with significant areas of high burn severity, such as the Rim (2013) and King (2014) fires, that have impacted habitat of endangered species such as the California spotted owl. In order to support land manager forest management planning and risk assessment activities, we used historical wildfire histories from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project and gridded hydroclimate and land surface characteristics data to develope statistical models to simulate the frequency, location and extent of high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forest wildfires as functions of climate and land surface characteristics. We define high severity here as BA90 area: the area comprising patches with ninety percent or more basal area killed within a larger fire. We developed a system of statistical models to characterize the probability of large fire occurrence, the probability of significant BA90 area present given a large fire, and the total extent of BA90 area in a fire on a 1/16 degree lat/lon grid over the Sierra Nevada. Repeated draws from binomial and generalized pareto distributions using these probabilities generated a library of simulated histories of high severity fire for a range of near (50 yr) future climate and fuels management scenarios. Fuels management scenarios were provided by USFS Region 5. Simulated BA90 area was then downscaled to 30 m resolution using a statistical model we developed using Random Forest techniques to estimate the probability of adjacent 30m pixels burning with ninety percent basal kill as a function of fire size and vegetation and topographic features. The result is a library of simulated high resolution maps of BA90 burned areas for a range of climate and fuels management scenarios with which we estimated conditional probabilities of owl nesting sites being impacted by high severity wildfire.

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

Climate-Driven Risk of Large Fire Occurrence in the Western United States, 1500 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crockett, J.; Westerling, A. L.

2017-12-01

Spatially comprehensive fire climatology has provided managers with tools to understand thecauses and consequences of large forest wildfires, but a paleoclimate context is necessary foranticipating the trajectory of future climate-fire relationships. Although accumulated charcoalrecords and tree scars have been utilized in high resolution, regional fire reconstructions, there isuncertainty as to how current climate-fire relationships of the western United States (WUS) fitwithin the natural long-term variability. While contemporary PDSI falls within the naturalvariability of the past, contemporary temperatures skew higher. Here, we develop a WUSfire reconstruction by applying climate-fire-topography model built on the 1972 to 2003 periodto the past 500 years, validated by recently updated fire-scar histories from WUS forests. Theresultant narrative provides insight into changing climate-fire relationships during extendedperiods of high aridity and temperature, providing land managers with historical precedent toeffectively anticipate disturbances during future climate change.

Aligning smoke management with ecological and public health goals

Treesearch

Jonathan W. Long; Leland W. Tarnay; Malcolm P. North

2017-01-01

Past and current forest management affects wildland fire smoke impacts on downwind human populations. However, mismatches between the scale of benefits and risks make it difficult to proactively manage wildland fires to promote both ecological and public health. Building on recent literature and advances in modeling smoke and health effects, we outline a framework to...

Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of suppression expenditure models

Treesearch

Michael S. Hand; Krista M. Gebert; Jingjing Liang; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson; Mo Zhou

2014-01-01

In the United States, increased wildland fire activity over the last 15 years has resulted in increased pressure to balance the cost, benefits, and risks of wildfire management. Amid increased public scrutiny and a highly variable wildland fire environment, a substantial body of research has developed to study factors affecting the cost-effectiveness of wildfire...

Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturtevant, Brian R.; Miranda, Brian R.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Wolter, Peter T.

2012-01-01

Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the relative strength of interactions between spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks and fire disturbances in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota (USA). Disturbance interactions were evaluated for two different scenarios: presettlement forests and fire regimes vs. contemporary forests and fire regimes. Forest composition under the contemporary scenario trended toward mixtures of deciduous species (primarily Betula papyrifera and Populus spp.) and shade-tolerant conifers (Picea mariana, Abies balsamea, Thuja occidentalis), with disturbances dominated by a combination of budworm defoliation and high-severity fires. The presettlement scenario retained comparatively more “big pines” (i.e., Pinus strobus, P. resinosa) and tamarack (L. laricina), and experienced less budworm disturbance and a comparatively less-severe fire regime. Spruce budworm disturbance decreased area burned and fire severity under both scenarios when averaged across the entire 300-year simulations. Contrary to past research, area burned and fire severity during outbreak decades were each similar to that observed in non-outbreak decades. Our analyses suggest budworm disturbances within forests of the BWCA have a comparatively weak effect on long-term forest composition due to a combination of characteristics. These include strict host specificity, fine-scaled patchiness created by defoliation damage, and advance regeneration of its primary host, balsam fir (A. balsamea) that allows its host to persist despite repeated disturbances. Understanding the nature of the three-way interaction between budworm, fire, and composition has important ramifications for both fire mitigation strategies and ecosystem restoration initiatives. We conclude that budworm disturbance can partially mitigate long-term future fire risk by periodically reducing live ladder fuel within the mixed forest types of the BWCA but will do little to reverse the compositional trends caused in part by reduced fire rotations.

Fire risk and air pollution assessment during the 2007 wildfire events in Greece using the COSMO-ART atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athanasopoulou, E.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Vogel, H.; Rieger, D.; Knote, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Vogel, B.; Karali, A.

2012-04-01

During 2007, Greece experienced an extreme summer and the worst natural hazard in its modern history. Soil dehydration, following a prolonged dry period in combination with hot temperatures and strong winds, yielded favorable conditions for the ignition and spread of wild fires that burnt approximately 200,000 ha of vegetated land (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009; Sifakis et al., 2011). The relationship between meteorology and fire potential can be provided by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is already found applicable in the fire activity of the Mediterranean region (Carvalho et al., 2008). However, lack of meteorological data or remote fire spots can be sources of uncertainties for fire risk estimation. In addition to the direct fire damage, these fires produced large quantities of gaseous air pollutants and particles (PM10) dispersed over the area of Greece. Indeed, PM10 concentration measurements showed two pollution episodes over Athens during late August and early September, 2007 (Liu et al., 2009). Nevertheless, these measurements neither show the large spatial extent of fire effects nor reveal its important role on atmospheric chemistry. In the current study, the application of the atmospheric model COSMO-ART is used to investigate the issues addressed above. COSMO-ART (Vogel et al. 2009) is a regional chemistry transport model (ART stands for Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) online-coupled to the COSMO regional numerical weather prediction and climate model (Baldauf et al. 2011). The current simulations are performed between August 15 and September 15 over Greece with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical extend up to 20 km. The initial and boundary meteorological conditions are derived from a coarser COSMO simulation performed by the German Weather Service. Fire emissions are retrieved from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (van der Werf et al., 2010). The anthropogenic emission database used is the TNO/MACC (Kuenen et al. 2011), while biogenic emissions are calculated online (Vogel et al. 1995). The FWI is calculated from air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation data obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service for several sites in proximity to the fire event areas. In parallel, these data serve as evaluation for the respective model predictions. The satisfactory comparison results enable the FWI calculation using the model data over the burnt areas, where observations are missing. The effect of these fire events on atmospheric chemistry is estimated by analyzing the predictions not only for the mainly affected primary species (carbon monoxide, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and elemental carbon), but also for the secondary pollutants (ozone, organic and nitrate aerosol). The competence of COSMO-ART mass predictions is evaluated by comparing PM10 outputs with published literature results. The weather conditions during the 2007 wildfire events have already been assessed as a typical summertime meteorological regime during the latter part of the century (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009). Therefore, the results presented here can be viewed as representative of a fire event likely to occur by then. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIMRUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010-265192.

Analyzing wildfire exposure on Sardinia, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A.; Alcasena, Fermin; Bacciu, Valentina; Duce, Pierpaolo; Munoz Lozano, Olga; Spano, Donatella

2014-05-01

We used simulation modeling based on the minimum travel time algorithm (MTT) to analyze wildfire exposure of key ecological, social and economic features on Sardinia, Italy. Sardinia is the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, and in the last fifty years experienced large and dramatic wildfires, which caused losses and threatened urban interfaces, forests and natural areas, and agricultural productions. Historical fires and environmental data for the period 1995-2009 were used as input to estimate fine scale burn probability, conditional flame length, and potential fire size in the study area. With this purpose, we simulated 100,000 wildfire events within the study area, randomly drawing from the observed frequency distribution of burn periods and wind directions for each fire. Estimates of burn probability, excluding non-burnable fuels, ranged from 0 to 1.92x10-3, with a mean value of 6.48x10-5. Overall, the outputs provided a quantitative assessment of wildfire exposure at the landscape scale and captured landscape properties of wildfire exposure. We then examined how the exposure profiles varied among and within selected features and assets located on the island. Spatial variation in modeled outputs resulted in a strong effect of fuel models, coupled with slope and weather. In particular, the combined effect of Mediterranean maquis, woodland areas and complex topography on flame length was relevant, mainly in north-east Sardinia, whereas areas with herbaceous fuels and flat areas were in general characterized by lower fire intensity but higher burn probability. The simulation modeling proposed in this work provides a quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk management activities, and represents one of the first applications of burn probability modeling to capture fire risk and exposure profiles in the Mediterranean basin.

Forest Management Shifts in the Western US and Potential Impacts on the Carbon Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.; Jones, M. O.; Yang, Z.; Berner, L. T.

2015-12-01

Forest harvest regimes are changing as land managers cope with fires, drought, and insect damage. Thinning on public lands, typically focused on removal of small trees that could act as fuel ladders, is increasing to reduce risk of crown fires and reduce competition for water in crowded stands. On private lands, drought and wildfires could lead to further shortening of harvest cycles (e.g. from 80 to 45 years) or thinning. To examine the effects of potential changes in management regimes vs climate on carbon processes in forests of Oregon, California and Washington, we used data from ancillary plots, inventories, and satellites to parameterize and test the CLM4.5 model. We first examined contemporary biomass loss over the western US to determine the baseline conditions prior to implementing harvest scenarios. Annual biomass mortality from fires and insects increased significantly (1996-2011), and mortality from insects was about twice that of fires. California, Oregon and Idaho were most impacted by fire-related biomass mortality, whereas Colorado, Montana and Washington were most impacted by insects. Harvest scenarios implemented in CLM4.5 include two thinning scenarios to reduce crown fire risk and drought stress, and a salvage scenario to remove trees remaining after recent beetle or fire related mortality; taking into account our previous work showing 70 - 85 % of salvaged biomass is removed and the remainder is left on-site. We simulated the effect of treatments on current and future net ecosystem carbon balance. Challenges of regional modeling of management effects on carbon and other important considerations are addressed.

Review of methods for developing probabilistic risk assessments

Treesearch

D. A. Weinstein; P.B. Woodbury

2010-01-01

We describe methodologies currently in use or those under development containing features for estimating fire occurrence risk assessment. We describe two major categories of fire risk assessment tools: those that predict fire under current conditions, assuming that vegetation, climate, and the interactions between them and fire remain relatively similar to their...

Climatic and socio-economic fire drivers in the Mediterranean basin at a century scale: Analysis and modelling based on historical fire statistics and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Conedera, M.; Pezzatti, B.; Madoui, A.; Belhadj Kheder, C.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is the main disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems, with implications on biogeochemical cycles, biosphere/atmosphere interactions, air quality, biodiversity, and socio-ecosystems sustainability. The fire/climate relationship is time-scale dependent and may additionally vary according to concurrent changes climatic, environmental (e.g. land use), and fire management processes (e.g. fire prevention and control strategies). To date, however, most studies focus on a decadal scale only, being fire statistics ore remote sensing data usually available for a few decades only. Long-term fire data may allow for a better caption of the slow-varying human and climate constrains and for testing the consistency of the fire/climate relationship on the mid-time to better apprehend global change effects on fire risks. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) associated with process-based fire models have been recently developed to capture both the direct role of climate on fire hazard and the indirect role of changes in vegetation and human population, to simulate biosphere/atmosphere interactions including fire emissions. Their ability to accurately reproduce observed fire patterns is still under investigation regarding seasonality, extreme events or temporal trend to identify potential misrepresentations of processes. We used a unique long-term fire reconstruction (from 1880 to 2016) of yearly burned area along a North/South and East/West environmental gradient across the Mediterranean Basin (southern Switzerland, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia) to capture the climatic and socio economic drivers of extreme fire years by linking yearly burned area with selected climate indices derived from historical climate databases and socio-economic variables. We additionally compared the actual historical reconstructed fire history with the yearly burned area simulated by a panel of DGVMS (FIREMIP initiative) driven by daily CRU climate data at 0.5° resolution across the Mediterranean basin. We will present and discuss the key processes driving interannual fire hazard along the 20th century, and analysed how DGVMs capture this interannual variability.

Domains of Risk in the Developmental Continuity of Fire Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarty, Carolyn A.; McMahon, Robert J.

2005-01-01

Juvenile fire setting is a serious, dangerous, and costly behavior. The majority of research examining youth fire setting has been cross-sectional. We sought to examine early risk attributes that could differentiate fire setters from non-fire setters, in addition to examining their association with the developmental continuity of fire-setting…

Fire safety knowledge and practices among residents of an assisted living facility.

PubMed

Jaslow, David; Ufberg, Jacob; Yoon, Russell; McQueen, Clay; Zecher, Derek; Jakubowski, Greg

2005-01-01

Assisted living facilities (ALFs) pose unique fire risks to the elderly that may be linked to specific fire safety (FS) practices. To evaluate self-reported FS practices among ALF residents. All residents of a small ALF were surveyed regarding actual and hypothetical FS behaviors, self-perceived fire risk, and FS preparedness. Fifty-eight ALF residents completed the survey. Thirty-three (58%) individuals reported one or more disabilities. Seven (12%) residents ignored the fire alarm and 21 (35%) could not hear it clearly. Sixteen (28%) residents would attempt to locate the source of a fire rather than escape from the building. Only 24 (42%) residents were familiar with the building fire plan. Twenty-three (40%) people surveyed believed that they were not at risk of fire in the study facility. Residents of an ALF may be at increased fire injury risk due to their FS practices and disabilities.

Surgical fires, a clear and present danger.

PubMed

Yardley, I E; Donaldson, L J

2010-04-01

A surgical fire is potentially devastating for a patient. Fire has been recognised as a potential complication of surgery for many years. Surgical fires continue to happen with alarming frequency. We present a review of the literature and an examination of possible solutions to this problem. The PubMed and Medline databases from 1948 onwards were searched using the subject headings "operating rooms", "fire", "safety" and "safety management". "Surgical fire" was also searched as a keyword. Relevant references from articles were obtained. Fire occurs when the three elements of the fire triad, fuel, oxidiser and ignition coincide. Surgical fires are unusual in the absence of an oxygen-enriched atmosphere. The ignition source is most commonly diathermy but lasers carry a relatively greater risk. The majority of fires occur during head and neck surgery. This is due to the presence of oxygen and the extensive use of lasers. The risk of fire can be reduced with an awareness of the risk and good communication. Surgery will always carry a risk of fire. Reducing this risk requires a concerted effort from all team members. Copyright 2010 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States

Treesearch

Jessica R. Haas; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

2013-01-01

Ongoing human development into fire-prone areas contributes to increasing wildfire risk to human life. It is critically important, therefore, to have the ability to characterize wildfire risk to populated places, and to identify geographic areas with relatively high risk. A fundamental component of wildfire risk analysis is establishing the likelihood of wildfire...

Uncertainty quantification and propagation in a complex human-environment system driven by fire and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Reich, B. J.; Pacifici, K.

2013-12-01

Fire is an important disturbance process in many coupled natural-human systems. Changes in the frequency and severity of fires due to anthropogenic climate change could have significant costs to society and the plant and animal communities that are adapted to a particular fire regime Planning for these changes requires a robust model of the relationship between climate and fire that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty that are present when simulating ecological and climatological processes. Here we model how anthropogenic climate change could affect the wildfire regime for a region in the Southeast US whose natural ecosystems are dependent on frequent, low-intensity fires while humans are at risk from large catastrophic fires. We develop a modeling framework that incorporates three major sources of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty in the ecological drivers of expected monthly area burned, (2) uncertainty in the environmental drivers influencing the probability of an extreme fire event, and (3) structural uncertainty in different downscaled climate models. In addition we use two policy-relevant emission scenarios (climate stabilization and 'business-as-usual') to characterize the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas forcings. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate different sources of uncertainty including simulation of predictive errors and Stochastic Search Variable Selection. Our results suggest that although the mean process remains stationary, the probability of extreme fires declines through time, owing to the persistence of high atmospheric moisture content during the peak fire season that dampens the effect of increasing temperatures. Including multiple sources of uncertainty leads to wide prediction intervals, but is potentially more useful for decision-makers that will require adaptation strategies that are robust to rapid but uncertain climate and ecological change.

Simulating Fire Disturbance and Plant Mortality Using Antecedent Eco-hydrological Conditions to Inform a Physically Based Combustion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atchley, A. L.; Linn, R.; Middleton, R. S.; Runde, I.; Coon, E.; Michaletz, S. T.

2016-12-01

Wildfire is a complex agent of change that both affects and depends on eco-hydrological systems, thereby constituting a tightly linked system of disturbances and eco-hydrological conditions. For example, structure, build-up, and moisture content of fuel are dependent on eco-hydrological regimes, which impacts fire spread and intensity. Fire behavior, on the other hand, determines the severity and extent of eco-hydrological disturbance, often resulting in a mosaic of untouched, stressed, damaged, or completely destroyed vegetation within the fire perimeter. This in turn drives new eco-hydrological system behavior. The cycles of disturbance and recovery present a complex evolving system with many unknowns especially in the face of climate change that has implications for fire risk, water supply, and forest composition. Physically-based numerical experiments that attempt to capture the complex linkages between eco-hydrological regimes that affect fire behavior and the echo-hydrological response from those fire disturbances help build the understanding required to project how fire disturbance and eco-hydrological conditions coevolve over time. Here we explore the use of FIRETEC—a physically-based 3D combustion model that solves conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species—to resolve fire spread over complex terrain and fuel structures. Uniquely, we couple a physically-based plant mortality model with FIRETEC and examine the resultant hydrologic impact. In this proof of concept demonstration we spatially distribute fuel structure and moisture content based on the eco-hydrological condition to use as input for FIRETEC. The fire behavior simulation then produces localized burn severity and heat injures which are used as input to a spatially-informed plant mortality model. Ultimately we demonstrate the applicability of physically-based models to explore integrated disturbance and eco-hydrologic response to wildfire behavior and specifically map how fire spread and intensity is affect by the antecedent eco-hydrological condition, which then affects the resulting tree mortality patterns.

Moving beyond traditional fire management practices to better minimize community vulnerability to wildfire in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syphard, A. D.; Keeley, J. E.; Brennan, T. J.

2010-12-01

Wildfires are an important natural process in southern California, but they also present a major hazard for human life and property. The region leads the nation in fire-related losses, and since 2001, wildfires have damaged or destroyed more than 10,000 homes. As human ignitions have increased along with urban development and population growth, fire frequency has also surged, and most home losses occur in large fires when ignitions coincide with Santa Ana windstorms. As the region accommodates more growth in the future, the wildfire threat promises to continue. We will thus explore how a broader, more comprehensive approach to fire management could improve upon traditional approaches for reducing community vulnerability. The traditional approach to mitigating fire risk, in addition to fire suppression, has been to reduce fuel through construction of fuel breaks. Despite increasing expenditure on these treatments, there has been little empirical study of their role in controlling large fires. We will present the results of a study in which we constructed and analyzed a spatial database of fuel breaks in southern California national forests. Our objective was to better understand characteristics of fuel breaks that affect the behavior of large fires and to map where fires and fuel breaks most commonly intersect. We found that fires stopped at fuel breaks 22-47% of the time, depending on the forest, and the reason fires stopped was invariably related to firefighter access and management activities. Fire weather and fuel break condition were also important. The study illustrates the importance of strategic location of fuel breaks because they have been most effective where they provided access for firefighting activities. While fuel breaks have played a role in controlling wildfires at the Wildland Urban Interface, we are evaluating alternative approaches for reducing community vulnerability, including land use planning. Recent research shows that the amount and spatial arrangement of human infrastructure, such as roads and housing developments, strongly influences wildfire patterns. Therefore, we hypothesize that the spatial arrangement and location of housing development is likely to affect the susceptibility of lives and property to fire. In other words, potential for urban loss may be greatest at specific housing densities, spatial patterns of development, and locations of development. If these risk factors can be identified, mapped, and modeled, it is possible that vulnerability to wildfire could be substantially minimized through careful planning for future development - especially because future development will likely increase the region’s fire risk. To address these possibilities, we are evaluating past housing loss in relation to land use planning, in conjunction with other variables that influence fire patterns. We are also exploring alternative future scenarios to identify optimum land use planning strategies for minimizing fire risk.

Pediatric fire deaths in Ontario: retrospective study of behavioural, social, and environmental risk factors.

PubMed

Chen, Yingming Amy; Bridgman-Acker, Karen; Edwards, Jim; Lauwers, Albert Edward

2011-05-01

To identify the predictors of residential fire deaths in the Ontario pediatric population using systematically collected data from the Office of the Chief Coroner. Retrospective cohort study. Ontario. Children younger than 16 years of age who died in accidental residential fires in Ontario between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2006. The study retrospectively reviewed the coroner's case files for 60 subjects who qualified according to the selection criteria. Reviewed documents included the coroner's investigation statements, autopsy reports, toxicology reports, fire marshal's reports, police reports, and Children's Aid Society (CAS) reports. Information on a range of demographic, behavioural, social, and environmental factors was collected. Statistical tests, including relative risk, relative risk confidence intervals, and χ(2) tests were performed to determine the correlation between factors of interest and to establish their significance. Thirty-nine fire events resulting in 60 deaths occurred between 2001 and 2006. Fire play and electrical failures were the top 2 causes of residential fires. More fires occurred during the night (midnight to 9 AM) than during the day (9 AM to midnight). Nighttime fires were most commonly due to electrical failures or unattended candles, whereas daytime fires were primarily caused by unsupervised fire play and stove fires. Smoke alarms were present at 32 of 39 fire events (82%), but overall alarm functionality was only 54%. Children from families with a history of CAS involvement were approximately 32 times more likely to die in fires. Risk factors for pediatric fire death in Ontario include smoke alarm functionality, fire play, fire escape behaviour, and CAS involvement. Efforts to prevent residential fire deaths should target these populations and risk factors, and primary care physicians should consider education around these issues as a primary preventive strategy for families with young children.

Optimizing prescribed fire allocation for managing fire risk in central Catalonia.

PubMed

Alcasena, Fermín J; Ager, Alan A; Salis, Michele; Day, Michelle A; Vega-Garcia, Cristina

2018-04-15

We used spatial optimization to allocate and prioritize prescribed fire treatments in the fire-prone Bages County, central Catalonia (northeastern Spain). The goal of this study was to identify suitable strategic locations on forest lands for fuel treatments in order to: 1) disrupt major fire movements, 2) reduce ember emissions, and 3) reduce the likelihood of large fires burning into residential communities. We first modeled fire spread, hazard and exposure metrics under historical extreme fire weather conditions, including node influence grid for surface fire pathways, crown fraction burned and fire transmission to residential structures. Then, we performed an optimization analysis on individual planning areas to identify production possibility frontiers for addressing fire exposure and explore alternative prescribed fire treatment configurations. The results revealed strong trade-offs among different fire exposure metrics, showed treatment mosaics that optimize the allocation of prescribed fire, and identified specific opportunities to achieve multiple objectives. Our methods can contribute to improving the efficiency of prescribed fire treatment investments and wildfire management programs aimed at creating fire resilient ecosystems, facilitating safe and efficient fire suppression, and safeguarding rural communities from catastrophic wildfires. The analysis framework can be used to optimally allocate prescribed fire in other fire-prone areas within the Mediterranean region and elsewhere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial controls of occurrence and spread of wildfires in the Missouri Ozark Highlands.

PubMed

Yang, Jian; He, Hong S; Shifley, Stephen R

2008-07-01

Understanding spatial controls on wildfires is important when designing adaptive fire management plans and optimizing fuel treatment locations on a forest landscape. Previous research about this topic focused primarily on spatial controls for fire origin locations alone. Fire spread and behavior were largely overlooked. This paper contrasts the relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic constraints on the spatial pattern of fire occurrence with that on burn probability (i.e., the probability that fire will spread to a particular location). Spatial point pattern analysis and landscape succession fire model (LANDIS) were used to create maps to show the contrast. We quantified spatial controls on both fire occurrence and fire spread in the Midwest Ozark Highlands region, USA. This area exhibits a typical anthropogenic surface fire regime. We found that (1) human accessibility and land ownership were primary limiting factors in shaping clustered fire origin locations; (2) vegetation and topography had a negligible influence on fire occurrence in this anthropogenic regime; (3) burn probability was higher in grassland and open woodland than in closed-canopy forest, even though fire occurrence density was less in these vegetation types; and (4) biotic and abiotic factors were secondary descriptive ingredients for determining the spatial patterns of burn probability. This study demonstrates how fire occurrence and spread interact with landscape patterns to affect the spatial distribution of wildfire risk. The application of spatial point pattern data analysis would also be valuable to researchers working on landscape forest fire models to integrate historical ignition location patterns in fire simulation.

Comparing the role of fuel breaks across southern California national forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Brennan, Teresa J.

2011-01-01

Fuel treatment of wildland vegetation is the primary approach advocated for mitigating fire risk at the wildland-urban interface (WUI), but little systematic research has been conducted to understand what role fuel treatments play in controlling large fires, which factors influence this role, or how the role of fuel treatments may vary over space and time. We assembled a spatial database of fuel breaks and fires from the last 30 years in four southern California national forests to better understand which factors are consistently important for fuel breaks in the control of large fires. We also explored which landscape features influence where fires and fuel breaks are most likely to intersect. The relative importance of significant factors explaining fuel break outcome and number of fire and fuel break intersections varied among the forests, which reflects high levels of regional landscape diversity. Nevertheless, several factors were consistently important across all the forests. In general, fuel breaks played an important role in controlling large fires only when they facilitated fire management, primarily by providing access for firefighting activities. Fire weather and fuel break maintenance were also consistently important. Models and maps predicting where fuel breaks and fires are most likely to intersect performed well in the regions where the models were developed, but these models did not extend well to other regions, reflecting how the environmental controls of fire regimes vary even within a single ecoregion. Nevertheless, similar mapping methods could be adopted in different landscapes to help with strategic location of fuel breaks. Strategic location of fuel breaks should also account for access points near communities, where fire protection is most important.

Coupling of Bayesian Networks with GIS for wildfire risk assessment on natural and agricultural areas of the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherb, Anke; Papakosta, Panagiota; Straub, Daniel

2014-05-01

Wildfires cause severe damages to ecosystems, socio-economic assets, and human lives in the Mediterranean. To facilitate coping with wildfire risks, an understanding of the factors influencing wildfire occurrence and behavior (e.g. human activity, weather conditions, topography, fuel loads) and their interaction is of importance, as is the implementation of this knowledge in improved wildfire hazard and risk prediction systems. In this project, a probabilistic wildfire risk prediction model is developed, with integrated fire occurrence and fire propagation probability and potential impact prediction on natural and cultivated areas. Bayesian Networks (BNs) are used to facilitate the probabilistic modeling. The final BN model is a spatial-temporal prediction system at the meso scale (1 km2 spatial and 1 day temporal resolution). The modeled consequences account for potential restoration costs and production losses referred to forests, agriculture, and (semi-) natural areas. BNs and a geographic information system (GIS) are coupled within this project to support a semi-automated BN model parameter learning and the spatial-temporal risk prediction. The coupling also enables the visualization of prediction results by means of daily maps. The BN parameters are learnt for Cyprus with data from 2006-2009. Data from 2010 is used as validation data set. A special focus is put on the performance evaluation of the BN for fire occurrence, which is modeled as binary classifier and thus, could be validated by means of Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves. With the final best models, AUC values of more than 70% for validation could be achieved, which indicates potential for reliable prediction performance via BN. Maps of selected days in 2010 are shown to illustrate final prediction results. The resulting system can be easily expanded to predict additional expected damages in the mesoscale (e.g. building and infrastructure damages). The system can support planning of preventive measures (e.g. state resources allocation for wildfire prevention and preparedness) and assist recuperation plans of damaged areas.

Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA.

Treesearch

B.C. Wales; L.H. Suring; M.A. Hemstrom

2007-01-01

Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior Western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and...

Modeling soil erosion and sediment transport from fires in forested watersheds of the South Carolina Piedmont

Treesearch

Tyler Crumbley; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty

2008-01-01

Forested watersheds in the Southeastern U.S. provide high quality water vital to ecosystem integrity and downstream aquatic resources. Excessive sedimentation from human activities in forest streams is of concern to responsible land managers. Prescribed fire is a common treatment applied to Southeastern piedmont forests and the risk of wildfire is becoming increasingly...

Forest worker exposure to airborne herbicide residues in smoke from prescribed fires in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Charles K. McMahon; Parshall B. Bush

1992-01-01

Occupational safety and health concerns have been raised in a number of southern states by workers conducting prescribed burns on forested lands treated with herbicides. Modeling assessments coupled with laboratory experiments have shown that the risk of airborne herbicide residues to workers is insignificant, even if the fire occurs immediately after herbicide...

Assessing the impacts of federal forest planning on wildfire risk-mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Karen C. Short; Cody R. Evers

2016-01-01

We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to...

Modeling soil erosion and sediment transport from fires in forested watersheds of the South Carolina Piedmont

Treesearch

Tyler Crumbley; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty

2007-01-01

Forested watersheds in the Southeastern U.S. provide high quality water vital to ecosystem integrity and downstream aquatic resources. Excessive sedimentation from human activities in forest streams is of concern to responsible land managers. Prescribed fire is a common treatment applied to Southeastern Piedmont forests and the risk of wildfire is becoming increasingly...

Using the forest, people, fire agent-based social network model to investigate interactions in social-ecological systems

Treesearch

Paige Fischer; Adam Korejwa; Jennifer Koch; Thomas Spies; Christine Olsen; Eric White; Derric Jacobs

2013-01-01

Wildfire links social and ecological systems in dry-forest landscapes of the United States. The management of these landscapes, however, is bifurcated by two institutional cultures that have different sets of beliefs about wildfire, motivations for managing wildfire risk, and approaches to administering policy. Fire protection, preparedness, and response agencies often...

Web service tools in the era of forest fire management and elimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poursanidis, Dimitris; Kochilakis, Giorgos; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Varella, Vasiliki; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Eftychidis, Giorgos; Lagouvardos, Kostas

2014-10-01

Wildfires in forests and forested areas in South Europe, North America, Central Asia and Australia are a diachronic threat with crucial ecological, economic and social impacts. Last decade the frequency, the magnitude and the intensity of fires have increased even more because of the climate change. An efficient response to such disasters requires an effective planning, with an early detection system of the ignition area and an accurate prediction of fire propagation to support the rapid response mechanisms. For this reason, information systems able to predict and visualize the behavior of fires, are valuable tools for fire fighting. Such systems, able also to perform simulations that evaluate the fire development scenarios, based on weather conditions, become valuable Decision Support Tools for fire mitigation planning. A Web-based Information System (WIS) developed in the framework of the FLIRE (Floods and fire risk assessment and management) project, a LIFE+ co-funded by the European Commission research, is presented in this study. The FLIRE WIS use forest fuel maps which have been developed by using generalized fuel maps, satellite data and in-situ observations. Furthermore, it leverages data from meteorological stations and weather forecast from numerical models to feed the fire propagation model with the necessary for the simulations inputs and to visualize the model's results for user defined time periods and steps. The user has real-time access to FLIRE WIS via any web browser from any platform (PC, Laptop, Tablet, Smartphone).

Back to Basics: Preventing Surgical Fires.

PubMed

Spruce, Lisa

2016-09-01

When fires occur in the OR, they are devastating and potentially fatal to both patients and health care workers. Fires can be prevented by understanding the fire triangle and methods of reducing fire risk, conducting fire risk assessments, and knowing how to respond if a fire occurs. This Back to Basics article addresses the basics of fire prevention and the steps that can be taken to prevent fires from occurring. Copyright © 2016 AORN, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Earth Observations to Assess the Socioeconomic Impact of Human Decision Making during the Suppression of a Wildland Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, V. V.; Kochanski, A.; Mandel, J.; Herr, V.; Schranz, S.

2016-12-01

This presentation will discuss the fire simulation system based on WRF-SFIRE and assimilation of satellite Active Fires detection to estimate the socio-economic impact of Earth observations and fire behavior modeling for the 2011 Las Conchas fire in New Mexico. Multiple scenarios will be developed with the WRF-SFIRE simulation based on value of information (VOI) provided by retired incident commanders, whose decision inputs will steer scenario development and simulation. The scenarios will differ according to the Earth observations available through NASA and then deemed useful to incident commanders. Each scenario will be evaluated in terms of its socio-economic impact as specified by NASA (2012) for its wildland fire program. This presentation is a proposed supplement to NASA grant NNX13AH59G Wildland Fire Behavior and Risk Forecasting, Sher Schranz, PI.

Fire regime in Mediterranean ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, Guido; Casula, Paolo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo

2010-05-01

The analysis of burnt areas time series in Mediterranean regions suggests that ecosystems characterising this area consist primarily of species highly vulnerable to the fire but highly resilient, as characterized by a significant regenerative capacity after the fire spreading. In a few years the area burnt may once again be covered by the same vegetation present before the fire. Similarly, Mediterranean conifer forests, which often refers to plantations made in order to reforest the areas most severely degraded with high erosion risk, regenerate from seed after the fire resulting in high resilience to the fire as well. Only rarely, and usually with negligible damages, fire affects the areas covered by climax species in relation with altitude and soil types (i.e, quercus, fagus, abies). On the basis of these results, this paper shows how the simple Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is able to reproduce the forest fire regime in terms of number of fires and burned area, describing whit good accuracy the actual fire perimeters. The original Drossel-Schwabl model has been slightly modified in this work by introducing two parameters (probability of propagation and regrowth) specific for each different class of vegetation cover. Using model selection methods based on AIC, the model with the optimal number of classes with different fire behaviour was selected. Two different case studies are presented in this work: Regione Liguria and Regione Sardegna (Italy). Both regions are situated in the center of the Mediterranean and are characterized by a high number of fires and burned area. However, the two regions have very different fire regimes. Sardinia is affected by the fire phenomenon only in summer whilst Liguria is affected by fires also in winter, with higher number of fires and larger burned area. In addition, the two region are very different in vegetation cover. The presence of Mediterranean conifers, (Pinus Pinaster, Pinus Nigra, Pinus halepensis) is quite spread in Liguria and is limited in Sardinia. What is common in the two regions is the widespread presence of shrub species frequently spread by fire. The analysis in the two regions thus allows in a rather limited area to study almost all the species that characterize the Mediterranean region. This work shows that the fire regime in Mediterranean area is strongly related with vegetation patterns, is almost totally independent by the cause of ignition, and only partially dependent by fire extinguishing actions.

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy; Peterson, David L.; Riley, Karin L.; Yongquiang Liu,; Luce, Charles H.

2016-01-01

The historical and pre-settlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate—including short- and long-term droughts—are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem.

Analysis of Architectural Building Design Influences on Fire Spread in Densely Urban Settlement using Cellular Automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tambunan, L.; Salamah, H.; Asriana, N.

2017-03-01

This study aims to determine the influence of architectural design on the risk of fire spread in densely urban settlement area. Cellular Automata (CA) is used to analyse the fire spread pattern, speed, and the extent of damage. Four cells represent buildings, streets, and fields characteristic in the simulated area, as well as their flammability level and fire spread capabilities. Two fire scenarios are used to model the spread of fire: (1) fire origin in a building with concrete and wood material majority, and (2) fire origin in building with wood material majority. Building shape, building distance, road width, and total area of wall openings are considered constant, while wind is ignored. The result shows that fire spread faster in the building area with wood majority than with concrete majority. Significant amount of combustible building material, absence of distance between buildings, narrow streets and limited fields are factors which influence fire spread speed and pattern as well as extent of damage when fire occurs in the densely urban settlement area.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Daniel Steven; Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Hargrove, William Walter

A multiple stressor risk assessment was conducted at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, as a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework. The focus was a testing program at Cibola Range, which involved an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, M60- A1 tanks. This paper describes the ecological risk assessment for the missile launch and detonation. The primary stressor associated with this activity was sound. Other minor stressors included the detonation impact, shrapnel, and fire. Exposure to desert mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus crooki) was quantified using the Army sound contour program BNOISE2, as well as distances frommore » the explosion to deer. Few effects data were available from related studies. Exposure-response models for the characterization of effects consisted of human "disturbance" and hearing damage thresholds in units of C-weighted decibels (sound exposure level) and a distance-based No Observed Adverse Effects Level for moose and cannonfire. The risk characterization used a weight-of-evidence approach and concluded that risk to mule deer behavior from the missile firing was likely for a negligible number of deer, but that no risk to mule deer abundance and reproduction is expected.« less

Potential health impacts from range fires at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willians, G.P.; Hermes, A.M.; Policastro, A.J.

1998-03-01

This study uses atmospheric dispersion computer models to evaluate the potential for human health impacts from exposure to contaminants that could be dispersed by fires on the testing ranges at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. It was designed as a screening study and does not estimate actual human health risks. Considered are five contaminants possibly present in the soil and vegetation from past human activities at APG--lead, arsenic, trichloroethylene (TCE), depleted uranium (DU), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT); and two chemical warfare agents that could be released from unexploded ordnance rounds heated in a range fire--mustard and phosgene. For comparison, dispersion of twomore » naturally occurring compounds that could be released by burning of uncontaminated vegetation--vinyl acetate and 2-furaldehyde--is also examined. Data from previous studies on soil contamination at APG are used in conjunction with conservative estimates about plant uptake of contaminants, atmospheric conditions, and size and frequency of range fires at APG to estimate dispersion and possible human exposure. The results are compared with US Environmental Protection Agency action levels. The comparisons indicate that for all of the anthropogenic contaminants except arsenic and mustard, exposure levels would be at least an order of magnitude lower than the corresponding action levels. Because of the compoundingly conservative nature of the assumptions made, they conclude that the potential for significant human health risks from range fires is low. The authors recommend that future efforts be directed at fire management and control, rather than at conducting additional studies to more accurately estimate actual human health risk from range fires.« less

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: A review

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Dave E. Calkin

2011-01-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to...

Fire Safety. Managing School Facilities, Guide 6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Department for Education and Employment, London (England). Architects and Building Branch.

This booklet discusses how United Kingdom schools can manage fire safety and minimize the risk of fire. The guide examines what legislation school buildings must comply with and covers the major risks. It also describes training and evacuation procedures and provides guidance on fire precautions, alarm systems, fire fighting equipment, and escape…

The efficacy of fuel treatment in mitigating property loss during wildfires: Insights from analysis of the severity of the catastrophic fires in 2009 in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Price, Owen F; Bradstock, Ross A

2012-12-30

Treatment of fuel (e.g. prescribed fire, logging) in fire-prone ecosystems is done to reduce risks to people and their property but effects require quantification, particularly under severe weather conditions when the destructive potential of fires on human infrastructure is maximised. We analysed the relative effects of fuel age (i.e. indicative of the effectiveness of prescribed fire) and logging on remotely sensed (SPOT imagery) severity of fires which occurred in eucalypt forests in Victoria, Australia in 2009. These fires burned under the most severe weather conditions recorded in Australia and caused large losses of life and property. Statistical models of the probability of contrasting extremes of severity (crown fire versus fire confined to the understorey) were developed based on effects of fuel age, logging, weather, topography and forest type. Weather was the primary influence on severity, though it was reduced at low fuel ages in Moderate but not Catastrophic, Very High or Low fire-weather conditions. Probability of crown fires was higher in recently logged areas than in areas logged decades before, indicating likely ineffectiveness as a fuel treatment. The results suggest that recently burnt areas (up to 5-10 years) may reduce the intensity of the fire but not sufficiently to increase the chance of effective suppression under severe weather conditions. Since house loss was most likely under these conditions (67%), effects of prescribed burning across landscapes on house loss are likely to be small when weather conditions are severe. Fuel treatments need to be located close to houses in order to effectively mitigate risk of loss. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction and Mitigation of the Effects of Catastrophic Fire on Water Supplies: Science for Risk Reduction and Planning for Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, D. A.; Tindall, J.

2008-12-01

Precipitation falling on forests and grasslands provides much of the water to communities across the United States. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that over 3,400 communities are served by water draining land under its jurisdiction alone. Much of this land is subject to wildland fires, which have been increasing in size and severity in the western United States in response to climatic forcing and increased ignitions from human sources. Runoff from burned landscapes can present a significant risk to municipal and agricultural water supplies from ash, sediment, contaminants from burned structures, and fire-fighting chemicals. Several municipalities, including Denver, Colorado, have experienced both short-term and long-term degradation of their water supplies in the aftermath of fires in watersheds upstream from drinking water reservoirs. Scientific efforts to predict and mitigate the effects of catastrophic fire on water supplies have focused on three areas. The first consists of data collection and carefully designed experiments to understand the change of the hydrologic behavior of burned watersheds in response to rain with different intensities, durations, and trajectories as the watersheds recover. Results from these studies are used to validate models that predict watershed response under different initial conditions constrained by remotely-sensed burn severity, topography, rainfall-intensity recurrence probabilities and other factors. These predictions are the basis for rehabilitation measures applied to the landscape to minimize post-fire runoff and erosion. Efforts are under way to incorporate the chemical effects of ash and fire-fighting compounds in decision-support tools. A second area of scientific focus is the characterization of the chemical and physical properties of ash from wildland fire, including ash from structures consumed by fire. The ash chemistry is correlated to remotely- sensed data, type of vegetation that burned, and the underlying geology. Ash affects the hydraulic properties and behavior of soils in burned watersheds while it still mantles the hillslopes, but it is easily delivered to water bodies by rain and wind as a flush of material that affects water chemistry and properties like turbidity and temperature. A third thrust is to identify watersheds that are critical to the function of municipal water supplies and infrastructure to determine their vulnerability to fire and post-fire effects. This information can be used to prioritize areas for fuel treatments or land management practices to minimize the probability of high severity fire and hence the effects of post-fire runoff. Scientific studies are providing crucial information about such topics as changes in soil erodibility, infiltration and runoff after fire, and the effects of vegetation recovery. Even in watersheds where land management actions are limited by topography or land use designation, such as wilderness areas, knowledge of the potential response of burned areas allows water providers to develop rapid-response and long-term plans based on scientific data and tools. Some climate change models are predicting hotter, drier temperatures in certain areas of the United States and a higher probability of larger, more severe wildfires. These predictions have a direct bearing on the potential risk of impairment of water supplies by post-fire runoff and erosion. In an era when water availability and quality are of utmost importance, careful scientific studies focused on the effects of wildland fire on water supplies will continue to inform public policy and decision making on topics of vulnerability and risk reduction.

Development of wildfires in Australia over the last century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieradzik, Lars Peter; Haverd, Vanessa; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep G.; Smith, Ben

2017-04-01

Wildfires and their emissions are key biospheric processes in the modeling of the carbon cycle that still are insufficiently understood. In Australia, fire emissions constitute a large flux of carbon from the biosphere to the atmosphere of approximately 1.3 times larger than the annual fossil fuel emissions. In addition, fire plays a big role in determining the composition of vegetation which in turn affects land-atmosphere fluxes. Annualy, up to 4% of the vegetated land-surface area is burned which amounts to up to 3% of global NPP and results in the reslease of about 2 Pg carbon into the atmosphere. There are indications that burned area has decreased globally over recent decades but so far there is not a clear trend in the development in fire-intensity and fuel availability. Net emissions from wildfires are not generally included in global and regional carbon budgets, because it is assumed that gross fire emissions are in balance with post-fire carbon uptake by recovering vegetation. This is a valid assumption as long as climate and fire regimes are in equilibrium, but not when the climate and other drivers are changing. We present a study on the behaviour of wildfires on the Australian continent over the last century (1911 - 2012) introducing the novel fire model BLAZE (BLAZe induced biosphere-atmosphere flux Estimator) that has been designed to address the feedbacks between climate, fuel loads, and fires. BLAZE is used within the Australian land-surface model CABLE (Community Atmophere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model). The study shows two significant outcomes: A regional shift in fire patterns shift during this century due to fire suppression and greening effects as well as an increase of potential fire-line intensity (the risk that a fire becomes more intense), especially in regions where most of Australia's population resides. This strongly emphasises the need to further investigate fire dynamics under future climate scenarios. The fire model BLAZE has been developed at the CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, Australia and will be part of the upcoming release of the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS version 4.1 within the MERGE project at Lund University, Sweden. It will also be included in the EC-Earth ESM within the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO.

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projectedmore » costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.« less

Wildland-Urban Interface Fires and Socioeconomic Conditions: A Case Study of a Northwestern Patagonia City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Torres Curth, Monica; Biscayart, Carolina; Ghermandi, Luciana; Pfister, Gabriela

2012-04-01

In many regions of the world, fires are primarily of anthropogenic origin. In northwestern Patagonia, the number of fires is not correlated with meteorological variables, but is concentrated in urban areas. This study was conducted in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) area of San Carlos de Bariloche (Patagonia, Argentina), within the Nahuel Huapi National Park. WUI fires are particularly problematic because, besides people and goods, they represent a danger to protected areas. We studied the relationship between fire records and socioeconomic indicators within the WUI of San Carlos de Bariloche. We conducted a Multiple Correspondence Factorial Analysis and an Ascendant Hierarchical Classification of the city neighborhoods. The results show that the neighborhoods in Bariloche can be divided into three classes: High Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, including neighborhoods with the highest fire rates, where people have low instruction level, high levels of unsatisfied basic needs and high unemployment levels; Low Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, that groups neighborhoods which present the opposite characterization, and Moderate Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, which are more heterogeneous. Once neighborhoods were classified, a Socioeconomic Fire Risk map was generated, supplementing the existing WUI Fire Danger map. Our results emphasize the relevance of socioeconomic variables to fire policies.

Near-maximal ECG stress testing and coronary artery disease risk factor analysis in Los Angeles City fire fighters.

PubMed

Barnard, R J; Gardner, G W; Diaco, N V; Kattus, A A

1975-11-01

Near-maximal ECG stress testing and coronary artery disease risk factor analysis including blood pressure, serum cholesterol and smoking habits were conducted on a randomly selected group (N=90) of Los Angeles City Fire Fighters ranging in age from 40 to 59 yrs. The data obtained from the fire fighters were compared to data previously reported for a group of Los Angeles insurance underwriters of the same age range. Only 12% of the fire fighters had cholesterol values greater than 260 mg% while 18% of the insurance executives fell into this category. Only 2% of the fire fighters had blood pressure values greater than 160/90 mm Hg while 25% of the insurance executives were hypertensive. Thirty-two percent of the fire fighters were smokers at the time of testing as compared to 26% for the insurance executives. Only one fire fighter had all three risk factors elevated and only five had two risk factors elevated. Forty-seven of the fire fighters had no risk factors elevated. Ten percent of the fire fighters had ischemic stress tests as compared to 8% for the insurance executives. Of the nine fire fighters with ischemic stress tests one was hypertensive, one had elevated serum triglycerides, and three were smokers at the time of testing. Since the fire fighters are a medically-selected population with low risk factors for CHD, the observed incidence of ischemic stress tests is surprising and suggests that ischemic heart disease may be job associated.

Social amplification of wildfire risk: The role of social interactions and information sources

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Katherine L. Dickinson; Patricia A. Champ; Nicholas Flores

2013-01-01

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire-prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social...

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

PubMed Central

Legg, Colin J.

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2. PMID:27833814

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires.

PubMed

Davies, G Matt; Legg, Colin J

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

Quantifying soil burn severity for hydrologic modeling to assess post-fire effects on sediment delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobre, Mariana; Brooks, Erin; Lew, Roger; Kolden, Crystal; Quinn, Dylan; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete

2017-04-01

Soil erosion is a secondary fire effect with great implications for many ecosystem resources. Depending on the burn severity, topography, and the weather immediately after the fire, soil erosion can impact municipal water supplies, degrade water quality, and reduce reservoirs' storage capacity. Scientists and managers use field and remotely sensed data to quickly assess post-fire burn severity in ecologically-sensitive areas. From these assessments, mitigation activities are implemented to minimize post-fire flood and soil erosion and to facilitate post-fire vegetation recovery. Alternatively, land managers can use fire behavior and spread models (e.g. FlamMap, FARSITE, FOFEM, or CONSUME) to identify sensitive areas a priori, and apply strategies such as fuel reduction treatments to proactively minimize the risk of wildfire spread and increased burn severity. There is a growing interest in linking fire behavior and spread models with hydrology-based soil erosion models to provide site-specific assessment of mitigation treatments on post-fire runoff and erosion. The challenge remains, however, that many burn severity mapping and modeling products quantify vegetation loss rather than measuring soil burn severity. Wildfire burn severity is spatially heterogeneous and depends on the pre-fire vegetation cover, fuel load, topography, and weather. Severities also differ depending on the variable of interest (e.g. soil, vegetation). In the United States, Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps, derived from Landsat satellite images, are used as an initial burn severity assessment. BARC maps are classified from either a Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) or differenced Normalized Burned Ratio (dNBR) scene into four classes (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High severity). The development of soil burn severity maps requires further manual field validation efforts to transform the BARC maps into a product more applicable for post-fire soil rehabilitation activities. Alternative spectral indices and modeled output approaches may prove better predictors of soil burn severity and hydrologic effects, but these have not yet been assessed in a model framework. In this project we compare field-verified soil burn severity maps to satellite-derived and modeled burn severity maps. We quantify the extent to which there are systematic differences in these mapping products. We then use the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) hydrologic soil erosion model to assess sediment delivery from these fires using the predicted and observed soil burn severity maps. Finally, we discuss differences in observed and predicted soil burn severity maps and application to watersheds in the Pacific Northwest to estimate post-fire sediment delivery.

Determination of pumper truck intervention ratios in zones with high fire potential by using geographical information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aricak, Burak; Kucuk, Omer; Enez, Korhan

2014-01-01

Fighting forest fires not only depends on the forest type, topography, and weather conditions, but is also closely related to the technical properties of fire-fighting equipment. Firefighting is an important part of fire management planning. However, because of the complex nature of forests, creating thematic layers to generate potential fire risk maps is difficult. The use of remote sensing data has become an efficient method for the discrete classification of potential fire risks. The study was located in the Central District of the Kastamonu Regional Forest Directorate, covering an area of 24,320 ha, 15,685 ha of which is forested. On the basis of stand age, crown closure, and tree species, the sizes and distributions of potential fire risk zones within the study area were determined using high-resolution GeoEye satellite imagery and geographical information system data. The status of pumper truck intervention in zones with high fire risk and the sufficiency of existing forest roads within an existing forest network were discussed based on combustible matter characteristics. Pumper truck intervention was 83% for high-risk zones, 79% for medium-risk zones, and 78% for low-risk zones. A pumper truck intervention area map along existing roads was also created.

Forest fuels and landscape-level fire risk assessment of the ozark highlands, Missouri

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

2007-01-01

In this paper we describe a fire risk assessment of the Ozark Highlands. Fire risk is rated using information on ignition potential and fuel hazard. Fuel loading, a component of the fire hazard module, is weakly predicted (r2 = 0.19) by site- and landscape-level attributes. Fuel loading does not significantly differ between Ozark ecological...

Diversity in Southwesterners' views of Forest Service fire management

Treesearch

P.L. Winter; G.T. Cvetkovich

2007-01-01

The risk of wildland fires is of significant concern in the southwestern United States. Although the Southwest has a long hi story as a fire· prone ecosystem, years of drought and insect infestation have increased fire risk. Paired with these ecological forces is the increased risk caused by the concentration of populations in the wildland urban interface (WUl),...

Predicting watershed sediment yields after wildland fire with the InVEST sediment retention model at large geographic extent in the western USA: accuracy and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankey, J. B.; Kreitler, J.; McVay, J.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Vaillant, N.; Lowe, S. E.

2014-12-01

Wildland fire is a primary threat to watersheds that can impact water supply through increased sedimentation, water quality decline, and change the timing and amount of runoff leading to increased risk from flood and sediment natural hazards. It is of great societal importance in the western USA and throughout the world to improve understanding of how changing fire frequency, extent, and location, in conjunction with fuel treatments will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities. In this work we assess the utility of the InVEST Sediment Retention Model to accurately characterize vulnerability of burned watersheds to erosion and sedimentation. The InVEST tools are GIS-based implementations of common process models, engineered for high-end computing to allow the faster simulation of larger landscapes and incorporation into decision-making. The InVEST Sediment Retention Model is based on common soil erosion models (e.g., RUSLE -Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) and determines which areas of the landscape contribute the greatest sediment loads to a hydrological network and conversely evaluate the ecosystem service of sediment retention on a watershed basis. We evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties for InVEST predictions of increased sedimentation after fire, using measured post-fire sedimentation rates available for many watersheds in different rainfall regimes throughout the western USA from an existing, large USGS database of post-fire sediment yield [synthesized in Moody J, Martin D (2009) Synthesis of sediment yields after wildland fire in different rainfall regimes in the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 96-115]. The ultimate goal of this work is to calibrate and implement the model to accurately predict variability in post-fire sediment yield as a function of future landscape heterogeneity predicted by wildfire simulations, and future landscape fuel treatment scenarios, within watersheds.

Effects of mountain pine beetle on fuels and expected fire behavior in lodgepole pine forests, Colorado, USA

Treesearch

Tania Schoennagel; Thomas T. Veblen; Jose F. Negron; Jeremy M. Smith

2012-01-01

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared...

Fire evolution in the radioactive forests of Ukraine and Belarus: future risks for the population and the environment

Treesearch

N. Evangeliou; Y. Balkanski; A. Cozic; WeiMin Hao; F. Mouillot; K. Thonicke; R. Paugam; S. Zibtsev; T. A. Mousseau; R. Wang; B. Poulter; A. Petkov; C. Yue; P. Cadule; B. Koffi; J. W. Kaiser; A. P. Moller

2015-01-01

In this paper, we analyze the current and future status of forests in Ukraine and Belarus that were contaminated after the nuclear disaster in 1986. Using several models, together with remote-sensing data and observations, we studied how climate change in these forests may affect fire regimes. We investigated the possibility of 137Cs displacement over Europe...

Seeking common ground: protecting homes from wildfires while making forests more resilient to fire

Treesearch

Noreen Parks; Alan Ager

2011-01-01

Federal policies direct public-land managers to reduce wildfire risks for urban areas close to wildlands, while broader agency goals call for landscape restoration to create fire-resilient forests. This study used wildfires simulation modeling to examine the tradeoffs between focusing fuel reduction efforts on a wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Oregon’s Blue Mountains...

Market impacts of a multiyear mechanical fuel treatment program in the U.S.

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Karen L. Abt; Robert J. Jr. Huggett

2008-01-01

We describe a two-stage model of global log and chip markets that evaluates the spatial and temporal economic effects of government- subsidized fire-related mechanical fuel treatment programs in the U.S.West and South. The first stage is a goal program that allocates subsidies according to fire risk and location priorities, given a budget and a feasible, market-...

Numerical modeling of laboratory-scale surface-to-crown fire transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castle, Drew Clayton

Understanding the conditions leading to the transition of fire spread from a surface fuel to an elevated (crown) fuel is critical to effective fire risk assessment and management. Surface fires that successfully transition to crown fires can be very difficult to suppress, potentially leading to damages in the natural and built environments. This is relevant to chaparral shrub lands which are common throughout parts of the Southwest U.S. and represent a significant part of the wildland urban interface. The ability of the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamic Simulator (WFDS) to model surface-to-crown fire transition was evaluated through comparison to laboratory experiments. The WFDS model is being developed by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The experiments were conducted at the USFS Forest Fire Laboratory in Riverside, California. The experiments measured the ignition of chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) crown fuel held above a surface fire spreading through excelsior fuel. Cases with different crown fuel bulk densities, crown fuel base heights, and imposed wind speeds were considered. Cold-flow simulations yielded wind speed profiles that closely matched the experimental measurements. Next, fire simulations with only the surface fuel were conducted to verify the rate of spread while factors such as substrate properties were varied. Finally, simulations with both a surface fuel and a crown fuel were completed. Examination of specific surface fire characteristics (rate of spread, flame angle, etc.) and the corresponding experimental surface fire behavior provided a basis for comparison of the factors most responsible for transition from a surface fire to the raised fuel ignition. The rate of spread was determined by tracking the flame in the Smokeview animations using a tool developed for tracking an actual flame in a video. WFDS simulations produced results in both surface fire spread and raised fuel bed ignition which closely matched the trends reported in the laboratory experiments.

On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe.

PubMed

Turco, Marco; von Hardenberg, Jost; AghaKouchak, Amir; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Provenzale, Antonello; Trigo, Ricardo M

2017-03-06

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Assessment of the risk due to release of carbon fiber in civil aircraft accidents, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pocinki, L.; Cornell, M. E.; Kaplan, L.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the potential use of carbon fiber composite material in commercial jet aircraft is investigated. A simulation model developed to generate risk profiles for several airports is described. The risk profiles show the probability that the cost due to accidents in any year exceeds a given amount. The computer model simulates aircraft accidents with fire, release of fibers, their downwind transport and infiltration of buildings, equipment failures, and resulting ecomomic impact. The individual airport results were combined to yield the national risk profile.

Post-wildfire logging hinders regeneration and increases fire risk.

PubMed

Donato, D C; Fontaine, J B; Campbell, J L; Robinson, W D; Kauffman, J B; Law, B E

2006-01-20

We present data from a study of early conifer regeneration and fuel loads after the 2002 Biscuit Fire, Oregon, USA, with and without postfire logging. Natural conifer regeneration was abundant after the high-severity fire. Postfire logging reduced median regeneration density by 71%, significantly increased downed woody fuels, and thus increased short-term fire risk. Additional reduction of fuels is necessary for effective mitigation of fire risk. Postfire logging can be counterproductive to the goals of forest regeneration and fuel reduction.

Factors related to building loss due to wildfires in the conterminous United States.

PubMed

Alexandre, Patricia M; Stewart, Susan I; Keuler, Nicholas S; Clayton, Murray K; Mockrin, Miranda H; Bar-Massada, Avi; Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C

2016-10-01

Wildfire is globally an important ecological disturbance affecting biochemical cycles and vegetation composition, but also puts people and their homes at risk. Suppressing wildfires has detrimental ecological effects and can promote larger and more intense wildfires when fuels accumulate, which increases the threat to buildings in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Yet, when wildfires occur, typically only a small proportion of the buildings within the fire perimeter are lost, and the question is what determines which buildings burn. Our goal was to examine which factors are related to building loss when a wildfire occurs throughout the United States. We were particularly interested in the relative roles of vegetation, topography, and the spatial arrangement of buildings, and how their respective roles vary among ecoregions. We analyzed all fires that occurred within the conterminous United States from 2000 to 2010 and digitized which buildings were lost and which survived according to Google Earth historical imagery. We modeled the occurrence as well as the percentage of buildings lost within clusters using logistic and linear regression. Overall, variables related to topography and the spatial arrangement of buildings were more frequently present in the best 20 regression models than vegetation-related variables. In other words, specific locations in the landscape have a higher fire risk, and certain development patterns can exacerbate that risk. Fire policies and prevention efforts focused on vegetation management are important, but insufficient to solve current wildfire problems. Furthermore, the factors associated with building loss varied considerably among ecoregions suggesting that fire policy applied uniformly across the United States will not work equally well in all regions and that efforts to adapt communities to wildfires must be regionally tailored. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires.

PubMed

Metallinou, Maria-Monika; Log, Torgrim

2017-07-20

General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km² of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires.

Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires

PubMed Central

Metallinou, Maria-Monika; Log, Torgrim

2017-01-01

General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km2 of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires. PMID:28726752

The role of prescribed burn associations in the application of prescribed fires in rangeland ecosystems.

PubMed

Toledo, David; Kreuter, Urs P; Sorice, Michael G; Taylor, Charles A

2014-01-01

Risk and liability concerns regarding fire affect people's attitudes toward fire and have led to human-induced alterations of fire regimes. This has, in turn, contributed to brush encroachment and degradation of many grasslands and savannas. Efforts to successfully restore such degraded ecosystems at the landscape scale in regions of the United States with high proportions of private lands require the reintroduction of fire. Prescribed Burn Associations (PBA) provide training, equipment, and labor to apply fire safely, facilitating the application of this rangeland management tool and thereby reducing the associated risk. PBAs help build networks and social capital among landowners who are interested in using fire. They can also change attitudes toward fire and enhance the social acceptability of using prescribed fire as a management practice. PBAs are an effective mechanism for promoting the widespread use of prescribed fire to restore and maintain the biophysical integrity of grasslands and savannas at the landscape scale. We report findings of a project aimed at determining the human dimensions of using prescribed fire to control woody plant encroachment in three different eco-regions of Texas. Specifically, we examine membership in PBAs as it relates to land manager decisions regarding the use of prescribed fire. Perceived risk has previously been identified as a key factor inhibiting the use of prescribed fire by landowners. Our results show that perceived constraints, due to lack of skill, knowledge, and access to equipment and membership in a PBAs are more important factors than risk perceptions in affecting landowner decisions about the use of fire. This emphasizes the potential for PBAs to reduce risk perceptions regarding the application of prescribed fire and, therefore, their importance for restoring brush-encroached grasslands and savannas. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Consequence modeling using the fire dynamics simulator.

PubMed

Ryder, Noah L; Sutula, Jason A; Schemel, Christopher F; Hamer, Andrew J; Van Brunt, Vincent

2004-11-11

The use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and in particular Large Eddy Simulation (LES) codes to model fires provides an efficient tool for the prediction of large-scale effects that include plume characteristics, combustion product dispersion, and heat effects to adjacent objects. This paper illustrates the strengths of the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), an LES code developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), through several small and large-scale validation runs and process safety applications. The paper presents two fire experiments--a small room fire and a large (15 m diameter) pool fire. The model results are compared to experimental data and demonstrate good agreement between the models and data. The validation work is then extended to demonstrate applicability to process safety concerns by detailing a model of a tank farm fire and a model of the ignition of a gaseous fuel in a confined space. In this simulation, a room was filled with propane, given time to disperse, and was then ignited. The model yields accurate results of the dispersion of the gas throughout the space. This information can be used to determine flammability and explosive limits in a space and can be used in subsequent models to determine the pressure and temperature waves that would result from an explosion. The model dispersion results were compared to an experiment performed by Factory Mutual. Using the above examples, this paper will demonstrate that FDS is ideally suited to build realistic models of process geometries in which large scale explosion and fire failure risks can be evaluated with several distinct advantages over more traditional CFD codes. Namely transient solutions to fire and explosion growth can be produced with less sophisticated hardware (lower cost) than needed for traditional CFD codes (PC type computer verses UNIX workstation) and can be solved for longer time histories (on the order of hundreds of seconds of computed time) with minimal computer resources and length of model run. Additionally results that are produced can be analyzed, viewed, and tabulated during and following a model run within a PC environment. There are some tradeoffs, however, as rapid computations in PC's may require a sacrifice in the grid resolution or in the sub-grid modeling, depending on the size of the geometry modeled.

Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities

Treesearch

Rachel S. Madsen; Hylton J. G. Haynes; Sarah M. McCaffrey

2018-01-01

As wildland fires have had increasing negative impacts on a range of human values, in many parts of the United States (U.S.) and around the world, collaborative risk reduction efforts among agencies, homeowners, and fire departments are needed to improve wildfire safety and mitigate risk. Using interview data from 46 senior officers from local fire departments around...

An analytical framework for quantifying wildland fire risk and fuel treatment benefit

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott

2006-01-01

Federal wildland fire management programs have readily embraced the practice of fuel treatment. Wildland fire risk is quantified as expected annual loss ($ yr –1 or $ yr –1 ac –1). Fire risk at a point on the landscape is a function of the probability of burning at that point, the relative frequency...

Fire Effects Planning Framework: A user's guide

Treesearch

A. Black; T. Opperman

2005-01-01

Each decision to suppress fire reinforces a feedback cycle in which fuels continue to accumulate, risk escalates, and the tendency to suppress fires grows (Miller and others, 2003). Existing decision-support tools focus primarily on the negative consequences of fire. This guide outlines a framework managers can use to (1) identify key areas of fire risk and (2)...

Wildfire seasonality and land use: when do wildfires prefer to burn?

PubMed

Bajocco, Sofia; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Ricotta, Carlo

2010-05-01

Because of the increasing anthropogenic fire activity, understanding the role of land-use in shaping wildfire regimes has become a major concern. In the last decade, an increasing number of studies have been carried out on the relationship between land-use and wildfire patterns, in order to identify land-use types where fire behaves selectively, showing a marked preference (or avoidance) in terms of fire incidence. By contrast, the temporal aspects of the relationship between landuse types and wildfire occurrence have received far less attention. The aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the period 2000-2006 to identify land-use types where wildfires occur earlier or later than expected from a random null model. The study highlighted a close relationship between the timing of fire occurrence and land-cover that is primarily governed by two complementary processes: climatic factors that act indirectly on the timing of wildfires determining the spatial distribution of land-use types, and human population and human pressure that directly influence fire ignition. From a practical viewpoint, understanding the temporal trends of wildfires within the different land-use classes can be an effective decision-support tool for fire agencies in managing fire risk and for producing provisional models of fire behavior under changing climatic scenarios and evolving landscapes.

Effects of fire on fish populations: Landscape perspectives on persistance of native fishes and nonnative fish invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, J.B.; Young, M.; Gresswell, Robert E.; Rieman, B.

2003-01-01

Our limited understanding of the short and long-term effects of fire on fish contributes to considerable uncertainty in assessments of the risks and benefits of fire management alternatives. A primary concern among the many potential effects of fire is the effects of fire and fire management on persistence of native fish populations. Limited evidence suggests vulnerability of fish to fire is contingent upon the quality of affected habitats, the amount and distribution of habitat (habitat fragmentation), and habitat specificity of the species in question. Species with narrow habitat requirements in highly degraded and fragmented systems are likely to be most vulnerable to fire and fire-related disturbance. In addition to effects of fire on native fish, there are growing concerns about the effects of fire on nonnative fish invasions. The role of fire in facilitating invasions by nonnative fishes is unknown, but experience with other species suggests some forms of disturbance associated with fire may facilitate invasion. Management efforts to promote persistence of fishes in fire-prone landscapes can take the form of four basic alternatives: (1) pre-fire management; (2) post-fire management; (3) managing fire itself (e.g. fire fighting); and (4) monitoring and adaptive management. Among these alternatives, pre-fire management is likely to be most effective. Effective pre-fire management activities will address factors that may render fish populations more vulnerable to the effects of fire (e.g. habitat degradation, fragmentation, and nonnative species). Post-fire management is also potentially important, but suffers from being a reactive approach that may not address threats in time to avert them. Managing fire itself can be important in some contexts, but negative consequences for fish populations are possible (e.g. toxicity of fire fighting chemicals to fish). Monitoring and adaptive management can provide important new information for evaluating alternatives, but proper implementation is often hampered by inadequate study designs and inconsistent financial and institutional support. The challenge for providing better management guidelines will be to add solid empirical data and models to assess the relevance of emerging concepts and theories, and provide a sense of where and when fires pose significant risks and/or benefits to fishes.

Determinants of National Fire Plan Fuels Treatment Expenditures: A Revealed Preference Analysis for Northern New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Curt; Grimsrud, Kristine; Berrens, Robert P.

2009-10-01

The accumulation of fire fuels in forests throughout the world contributes significantly to the severity of wildfires. To combat the threat of wildfire, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), US federal land management agencies have implemented a number of forest restoration and wildfire risk reduction programs. In the spirit of revealed preference analyses, the objective of this study is to investigate the pattern and determinants of National Fire Plan (NFP) expenditures for fuel reduction treatments in northern New Mexico (USA). Estimation results from a set of Generalized Estimating Equations models are mixed with respect to risk reduction hypotheses, and also raise issues regarding how risk reduction should be defined for a region characterized by both pockets of urban sprawl into the WUI and large areas of chronic rural poverty. Program preferences for project funding under the federal Collaborative Forest Restoration Program in New Mexico are shown to be distinctly different (e.g., exhibiting greater concern for social equity) than for other NFP-funded projects.

Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Erosion Modeling: Lessons Learned from the Rock House and High Park Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Mary Ellen; Elliot, William E.; MacDonald, Lee H.

2013-04-01

Once the danger posed by an active wildfire has passed, land managers must rapidly assess the threat from post-fire runoff and erosion due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties. Increased runoff and sediment delivery are of great concern to both the pubic and resource managers. Post-fire assessments and proposals to mitigate these threats are typically undertaken by interdisciplinary Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams. These teams are under very tight deadlines, so they often begin their analysis while the fire is still burning and typically must complete their plans within a couple of weeks. Many modeling tools and datasets have been developed over the years to assist BAER teams, but process-based, spatially explicit models are currently under-utilized relative to simpler, lumped models because they are more difficult to set up and require the preparation of spatially-explicit data layers such as digital elevation models, soils, and land cover. The difficulty of acquiring and utilizing these data layers in spatially-explicit models increases with increasing fire size. Spatially-explicit post-fire erosion modeling was attempted for a small watershed in the 1270 km2 Rock House fire in Texas, but the erosion modeling work could not be completed in time. The biggest limitation was the time required to extract the spatially explicit soils data needed to run the preferred post-fire erosion model (GeoWEPP with Disturbed WEPP parameters). The solution is to have the spatial soil, land cover, and DEM data layers prepared ahead of time, and to have a clear methodology for the BAER teams to incorporate these layers in spatially-explicit modeling interfaces like GeoWEPP. After a fire occurs the data layers can quickly be clipped to the fire perimeter. The soil and land cover parameters can then be adjusted according to the burn severity map, which is one of the first products generated for the BAER teams. Under a previous project for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency this preparatory work was done for much of Colorado, and in June 2012 the High Park wildfire in north central Colorado burned over 340 km2. The data layers for the entire burn area were quickly assembled and the spatially explicit runoff and erosion modeling was completed in less than three days. The resulting predictions were then used by the BAER team to quantify downstream risks and delineate priority areas for different post-fire treatments. These two contrasting case studies demonstrate the feasibility and the value of preparing datasets and modeling tools ahead of time. In recognition of this, the U.S. National Aeronautic and Space Administration has agreed to fund a pilot project to demonstrate the utility of acquiring and preparing the necessary data layers for fire-prone wildlands across the western U.S. A similar modeling and data acquisition approach could be followed

Risk factors associated with unintentional house fire incidents, injuries and deaths in high-income countries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Turner, Samantha L; Johnson, Rhodri D; Weightman, Alison L; Rodgers, Sarah E; Arthur, Geri; Bailey, Rowena; Lyons, Ronan A

2017-04-01

To identify the distinguishing risk factors associated with unintentional house fire incidents, injuries and deaths. Systematic review. A range of bibliographical databases and grey literature were searched from their earliest records to January 2016. To ensure the magnitude of risk could be quantified, only those study types which contained a control group, and undertook appropriate statistical analyses were included. A best evidence synthesis was conducted instead of a meta-analysis due to study heterogeneity. Eleven studies investigating a variety of risk factors and outcomes were identified. Studies ranged from medium to low quality with no high quality studies identified. Characteristics commonly associated with increased risk of house fire incidents, injuries and fatalities included: higher numbers of residents, male, children under the age of 5 years, non-working households, smoking, low income, non-privately owned properties, apartments and buildings in poor condition. Several risk factors were only associated with one outcome (eg, living alone was only associated with increased risk of injurious fires), and households with older residents were at increased risk of injurious fires, but significantly less likely to experience a house fire in the first place. This best evidence synthesis indicates that several resident and property characteristics are associated with risk of experiencing house fire incidents, injuries or death. These findings should be considered by the Fire and Rescue Services and others with a role in fire prevention. Future research should adopt robust, standardised study designs to permit meta-analyses and enable stronger conclusions to be drawn. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

LANDFIRE: Collaboration for National Fire Fuel Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2006-01-01

The implementation of national fire management policies, such as the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forest Restoration Act, requires geospatial data of vegetation types and structure, wildland fuels, fire risks, and ecosystem fire regime conditions. Presently, no such data sets are available that can meet these requirements. As a result, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service and the Department of the Interior's land management bureaus (Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), and National Park Service (NPS)) have jointly sponsored LANDFIRE, a new research and development project. The primary objective of the project is to develop an integrated and repeatable methodology and produce vegetation, fire, and ecosystem information and predictive models for cost-effective national land management applications. The project is conducted collaboratively by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the USDA Forest Service, and The Nature Conservancy.

Land Use Planning and Wildfire: Development Policies Influence Future Probability of Housing Loss

PubMed Central

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Bar Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction. PMID:23977120

A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling Wildfire Risk on Changing Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burzynski, A. M.; Beavers, A.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) maintains approximately 28 million acres of land across 420 of their largest installations. These sites harbored 425 federally listed Threatened and Endangered species as of 2013, representing a density of rare species that is several times greater than any other land management agency in the U.S. This is a major driver of DoD natural resources policy and many of these species are affected by wildland fire, both positively and negatively. Military installations collectively experience thousands of wildfires per year, and the majority of ignitions are caused by mission and training activities that can be planned to accommodate fire risk. Motivated by the need for accurately modeled wildfire under the unique land-use conditions of military installations and the assessment of risk exposure at installations throughout the U.S., we developed custom, FARSITE-based scientific software that applies a Monte Carlo approach to wildfire risk analysis. This simulation accounts for the dynamics of vegetation and weather over time, as well as the spatial and temporal distribution of wildfire ignitions, and can be applied to landscapes up to several million acres in size. The data-driven simulation provides insight that feeds directly into mitigation decision-making and can be used to assess future risk scenarios, both real and hypothetical. We highlight an example of a future scenario comparing wildfire behavior between unmitigated fuels and one in which a prescribed burn program is implemented. The same process can be used for a variety of scenarios including changes in vegetation (e.g. new or altered grazing regimes, extreme weather, or drought) and changes in spatiotemporal ignition probability. The modeling capabilities that we apply to predicting wildfire risk on military lands are also relevant to the greater scientific community for modeling wildland fire in the context of environmental change, historical ecology, or climate change.

United States Fire Administration

MedlinePlus

... Vehicle Fire Safety flyer PDF 234 KB Publication Risk management practices This guide contains recommended approaches to manage organizational, operational and community risk. If you are a fire department leader, our ...

Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

2010-01-01

NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

Managing the risks of risk management on large fires

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2013-01-01

Large fires pose risks to a number of important values, including the ecology, property and the lives of incident responders. A relatively unstudied aspect of fire management is the risks to which incident managers are exposed due to organizational and sociopolitical factors that put them in a position of, for example, potential liability or degradation of their image...

Managing risk with chance-constrained programming

Treesearch

Michael Bevers; Brian Kent

2007-01-01

Reducing catastrophic fire risk is an important objective of many fuel treatment programs (Kent et al. 2003; Machlis et al. 2002; USDA/USDI 2001a). In practice, risk reductions can be accomplished by lowering the probability of a given loss to forest fires, the amount of probable loss, or both. Forest fire risk objectives are seldom quantified, however, making it...

El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Marlier, Miriam E; DeFries, Ruth S; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L; Randerson, James T; Shindell, Drew T; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg

2013-01-01

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality 1 . In this study, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modeling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity due to coupling between El Niño-induced droughts and anthropogenic land use change 2,3 . We show that during strong El Niño years, fires contribute up to 200 μg/m 3 and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and ozone (O 3 ) surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization (WHO) 50 μg/m 3 24-hour PM 2.5 interim target (IT-2) 4 and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300) person (~2%) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity, and maintaining ecosystem services.

El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; Defries, Ruth S.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L.; Randerson, James T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg

2013-02-01

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Niño-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Niño years, fires contribute up to 200μgm-3 and 50ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50μgm-3 24-hr PM2.5 interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (~ 2%) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.

El Nino and Health Risks from Landscape Fire Emissions in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; Defries, Ruth S.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L.; Randerson, James T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg

2013-01-01

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Nino-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Nino years, fires contribute up to 200 micrograms per cubic meter and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50 micrograms per cubic metre 24-hr PM(sub 2.5) interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (approximately 2 percent) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.

Assessing fire risk in Portugal during the summer fire season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dacamara, C. C.; Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.

2009-04-01

Since 1998, Instituto de Meteorologia, the Portuguese Weather Service has relied on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System (van Wagner, 1987) to produce daily forecasts of fire risk. The FWI System consists of six components that account for the effects of fuel moisture and wind on fire behavior. The first three components, i.e. the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and the Drought Code (DC) respectively rate the average moisture content of surface litter, decomposing litter, and organic (humus) layers of the soil. Wind effects are then added to FFMC leading to the Initial Spread Index (ISI) that rates fire spread. The remaining two fuel moisture codes (DMC and DC) are in turn combined to produce the Buildup Index (BUI) that is a rating of the total amount of fuel available for combustion. BUI is finally combined with ISI to produce the Fire Weather Index (FWI) that represents the rate of fire intensity. Classes of fire danger and levels of preparedness are commonly defined on an empirical way for a given region by calibrating the FWI System against wildfire activity as defined by the recorded number of events and by the observed burned area over a given period of time (Bovio and Camia, 1998). It is also a well established fact that distributions of burned areas are heavily skewed to the right and tend to follow distributions of the exponential-type (Cumming, 2001). Based on the described context, a new procedure is presented for calibrating the FWI System during the summer fire season in Portugal. Two datasets were used covering a 28-year period (1980-2007); i) the official Portuguese wildfire database which contains detailed information on fire events occurred in the 18 districts of Continental Portugal and ii) daily values of the six components of the FWI System as derived from reanalyses (Uppala et al., 2005) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Calibration of the FWI System is then performed in two steps; 1) a truncated Weibull distribution is fitted to the sample of burned areas and 2) the quality of the fitted statistical model is improved by incorporating components of the FWI System as covariates. Obtained model allows estimating on a daily basis the probability of occurrence of fires larger than a given threshold as well as producing maps of fire risk. Results as obtained from a prototype currently being developed will be presented and discussed. In particular, it will be shown that results provide additional evidence of the known fact that the extent of burned area in Portugal is controlled by two main atmospheric factors (Pereira et al. 2005): i) a long-term control related to the regime of temperature and precipitation in spring and ii) a short-term control exerted by the occurrence of very intense dry spells in days of extreme synoptic situations. Bovio, G., and A. Camia. 1998. An analysis of large forest fire danger conditions in Europe. In Proc. 3rd Int. Conf. on Forest Fire Research & 14th Conf. on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Viegas, D.X. (Ed.), Luso, 16-20 Nov., ADAI, 975-994. Cumming, S.G., 2001. Parametric models of the fire size distribution. Can J. For. Res., 31, 1297-1303. Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C. and Leite, S.M., 2005. Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agr. and For. Meteorol., 129 (1-2), 11-25. Uppala, S.M. et al., 2005: The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961-3012. Van Wagner, C.E., 1987. Development and structure of the Canadian forest fire weather index system. Canadian Forestry Service, Forest Technical Report 35, Ottawa, 37 pp.

Shared values and trust: the experience of community residents in a fire-prone ecosystem

Treesearch

Patricia L. Winter; George T. Cvetkovich

2010-01-01

The risk and impact of fires have been significant on the San Bernardino National Forest. It is important to understand how residents of areas surrounded by the forest perceive the impact of fires. If fire management agencies understand these perceptions, fire management agencies will be better equipped to communicate with publics about risk-reduction efforts that...

Evaluating risks and benefits of wildland fire at landscape scales

Treesearch

Carol Miller; Peter B. Landres; Paul B. Alaback

2000-01-01

Fire suppression has resulted in severe management challenges, especially in the wildland-urban interface zone. Fire managers seek to reduce fuels and risks in the interface zone, while striving to return the natural role of fire to wildland ecosystems. Managers must balance the benefits of wildland fire on ecosystem health against the values that need to be protected...

Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cochrane, M.A.; Moran, C.J.; Wimberly, M.C.; Baer, A.D.; Finney, M.A.; Beckendorf, K.L.; Eidenshink, J.; Zhu, Z.

2012-01-01

Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72 000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314 000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.

76 FR 81998 - Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-29

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0295] Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA AGENCY..., ``Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA--Draft Report for Comment.'' DATES: Submit comments by March 01... risk assessment (PRA) method for quantitatively analyzing fire risk in commercial nuclear power plants...

78 FR 28892 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID FEMA 2010-0037] Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION..., limbing and mowing, thinning, and grazing techniques as appropriate to reduce the risk of fire hazard...

Local and regional smoke impacts from prescribed fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Owen F.; Horsey, Bronwyn; Jiang, Ningbo

2016-10-01

Smoke from wildfires poses a significant threat to affected communities. Prescribed burning is conducted to reduce the extent and potential damage of wildfires, but produces its own smoke threat. Planners of prescribed fires model the likely dispersion of smoke to help manage the impacts on local communities. Significant uncertainty remains about the actual smoke impact from prescribed fires, especially near the fire, and the accuracy of smoke dispersal models. To address this uncertainty, a detailed study of smoke dispersal was conducted for one small (52 ha) and one large (700 ha) prescribed fire near Appin in New South Wales, Australia, through the use of stationary and handheld pollution monitors, visual observations and rain radar data, and by comparing observations to predictions from an atmospheric dispersion model. The 52 ha fire produced a smoke plume about 800 m high and 9 km long. Particle concentrations (PM2.5) reached very high peak values (> 400 µg m-3) and high 24 h average values (> 100 µg m-3) at several locations next to or within ˜ 500 m downwind from the fire, but low levels elsewhere. The 700 ha fire produced a much larger plume, peaking at ˜ 2000 m altitude and affecting downwind areas up to 14 km away. Both peak and 24 h average PM2.5 values near the fire were lower than for the 52 ha fire, but this may be because the monitoring locations were further away from the fire. Some lofted smoke spread north against the ground-level wind direction. Smoke from this fire collapsed to the ground during the night at different times in different locations. Although it is hard to attribute particle concentrations definitively to smoke, it seems that the collapsed plume affected a huge area including the towns of Wollongong, Bargo, Oakdale, Camden and Campbelltown (˜ 1200 km2). PM2.5 concentrations up to 169 µg m-3 were recorded on the morning following the fire. The atmospheric dispersion model accurately predicted the general behaviour of both plumes in the early phases of the fires, but was poor at predicting fine-scale variation in particulate concentrations (e.g. places 500 m from the fire). The correlation between predicted and observed varied between 0 and 0.87 depending on location. The model also completely failed to predict the night-time collapse of the plume from the 700 ha fire. This study provides a preliminary insight into the potential for large impacts from prescribed fire smoke to NSW communities and the need for increased accuracy in smoke dispersion modelling. More research is needed to better understand when and why such impacts might occur and provide better predictions of pollution risk.

Effects of Mountain Pine Beetle on Fuels and Expected Fire Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA

PubMed Central

Schoennagel, Tania; Veblen, Thomas T.; Negron, José F.; Smith, Jeremy M.

2012-01-01

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [∼30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior. PMID:22272268

77 FR 10576 - Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-22

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0295] Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA AGENCY.../Shutdown Fire PRA.'' In response to request from members of the public, the NRC is extending the public... risk assessment (PRA) method for quantitatively analyzing fire risk in commercial nuclear power plants...

Managing the Library Fire Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, John

A discussion of fire risks, causes, prevention, and salvage in libraries is presented in text and photographs. A description of some historic library fires demonstrates the value of adequate protection and preparedness programs to minimize loss and damage. The need for fire retardant construction and protection from valdalism and arson are…

Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

2013-12-01

Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience strong upslope shifting of open grassland, chaparral and hardwood types, which may be initiated by increased fire frequencies, particularly where fires have not recently burned within normal fire recurrence interval departures (FRID). An evaluation of four fire management strategies (business as usual; resist change; foster orderly change; protect vital resources) across four combinations of future climate and fire frequency found that no single management strategy was uniformly successful in protecting critical resources across the range of future conditions examined. This limitation is somewhat driven by current management constraints on the amount of management available to resource managers, which suggests management will need to use a triage approach to application of proactive fire management strategies, wherein MOC landscape projections can be used in decision support.

Operating room fire prevention: creating an electrosurgical unit fire safety device.

PubMed

Culp, William C; Kimbrough, Bradly A; Luna, Sarah; Maguddayao, Aris J

2014-08-01

To reduce the incidence of surgical fires. Operating room fires represent a potentially life-threatening hazard and are triggered by the electrosurgical unit (ESU) pencil. Carbon dioxide is a fire suppressant and is a routinely used medical gas. We hypothesize that a shroud of protective carbon dioxide covering the tip of the ESU pencil displaces oxygen, thereby preventing fire ignition. Using 3-dimensional modeling techniques, a polymer sleeve was created and attached to an ESU pencil. This sleeve was connected to a carbon dioxide source and directed the gas through multiple precisely angled ports, generating a cone of fire-suppressive carbon dioxide surrounding the active pencil tip. This device was evaluated in a flammability test chamber containing 21%, 50%, and 100% oxygen with sustained ESU activation. The sleeve was tested with and without carbon dioxide (control) until a fuel was ignited or 30 seconds elapsed. Time to ignition was measured by high-speed videography. Fires were ignited with each control trial (15/15 trials). The control group median ± SD ignition time in 21% oxygen was 3.0 ± 2.4 seconds, in 50% oxygen was 0.1 ± 1.8 seconds, and in 100% oxygen was 0.03 ± 0.1 seconds. No fire was observed when the fire safety device was used in all concentrations of oxygen (0/15 trials; P < 0.0001). The exact 95% confidence interval for absolute risk reduction of fire ignition was 76% to 100%. A sleeve creating a cone of protective carbon dioxide gas enshrouding the sparks from an ESU pencil effectively prevents fire in a high-flammability model. Clinical application of this device may reduce the incidence of operating room fires.

Quantifying the Influence of Agricultural Fires in Northwest India on Urban Air Pollution in Delhi, India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusworth, D.; Mickley, L. J.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Liu, T.; Guttikunda, S. K.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, farmers in northwest India have switched to mechanized combine harvesting to boost efficiency. This harvesting technique leaves abundant crop residue on the fields, which farmers burn to ready their fields for subsequent planting. A key question is to what extent the intense smoke emitted by these fires contributes to the already severe pollution in Delhi and across the heavily populated Indus-Ganges Plain, downwind of the fires. Using a combination of observed and modeled variables, including surface measurements of PM2.5, we quantify the magnitude of the influence of agricultural fire emissions on surface air pollution in Delhi. We first derive the signal of regional PM2.5 enhancements from the Delhi network of surface air monitors during each winter burning season (Oct. 17 - Nov. 30) for 2012-2016. We next use the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model (STILT) to generate particle back-trajectories from Delhi, which allows us to map the sensitivity of Delhi pollution to agricultural fires in each grid cell upwind. By combining these sensitivity maps with emissions from a suite of fire inventories, we can reproduce 15-36% of the weekly variability in observed PM2.5. Our method attributes 7-84% of maximum observed PM2.5 enhancement in Delhi to fires upwind, depending on the year and emission inventory. The large range of these attribution estimates points to the uncertainties in fire emission parameterizations, especially in regions where thick smoke may mask the hotspots of fire radiative power. Although our model can generally reproduce the largest PM2.5 enhancements in Delhi air quality for 1-3 consecutive days each fire season, it fails to capture many smaller daily enhancements, which we attribute to the challenge of detecting small fires in the satellite retrieval. By quantifying the magnitude of the influence of agricultural fire emissions on Delhi air pollution, our work helps clarify the pollution exposure and potential health risk of this harvesting practice.

Studying fire mitigation strategies in multi-ownership landscapes: balancing the management of fire-dependent ecosystems and fire risk

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson; Robert M. Scheller

2009-01-01

Public forests are surrounded by land over which agency managers have no control, and whose owners expect the public forest to be a "good neighbor." Fire risk abatement on multi-owner landscapes containing flammable but fire-dependent ecosystems epitomizes the complexities of managing public lands. We report a case study that applies a landscape disturbance...

Assessing the benefits of reducing fire risk in the wildland urban interface: A contingent valuation approach

Treesearch

Jeremy Fried; Greg J. Winter; Keith J. Gilless

1999-01-01

Wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents in Michigan were interviewed using a contingent valuation protocol to assess their-willingness-to-pay (WT) for incremental reductions in the risk of losing their homes to wildfire. WTP was elicited using a probability model which segments the risk of structure loss into "public" and "private" components.

Skin antiseptics and the risk of operating theatre fires.

PubMed

Spigelman, Allan D; Swan, Judith R

2005-07-01

Following press reports of patients catching fire or receiving chemical burns in the operating theatre, a review was conducted on the flammability of skin antiseptics. The purpose of the paper was to clarify confusion regarding povidine-iodine (Betadine), which had been reported as being flammable, and also to determine the use of alcohol-based solutions in the Hunter Area Health Service. A risk assessment was conducted and risk reduction strategies outlined. Risk assessment was made following a literature review and an audit of 10 operating theatres in the Hunter Area Health Service. Risk for operating room fires from alcohol-based skin antiseptics was confirmed. Antiseptics in aqueous solutions only smoulder. The Hunter Health survey indicated that although alcohol-based solutions were not used in operating theatres, they were used in anaesthetic bays for insertion of epidural and central line catheters. Strategies to reduce the risk of fire include discontinuation of use of alcohol-based skin antiseptics in operating theatres; using fire retardant surgical drapes; installing over-current protection devices on electrical equipment; minimizing flammable conditions by avoiding nitrous oxide and using the lowest required concentration of inspired oxygen; use of non-flammable cuffed endotracheal tubes; education and training of operating theatre personnel in fire hazards. Operating theatre fires continue to be a major risk for patient safety. In order to reduce this risk, the strategies outlined here should be followed.

Estimating vegetation dryness to optimize fire risk assessment with spot vegetation satellite data in savanna ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbesselt, J.; Somers, B.; Lhermitte, S.; van Aardt, J.; Jonckheere, I.; Coppin, P.

2005-10-01

The lack of information on vegetation dryness prior to the use of fire as a management tool often leads to a significant deterioration of the savanna ecosystem. This paper therefore evaluated the capacity of SPOT VEGETATION time-series to monitor the vegetation dryness (i.e., vegetation moisture content per vegetation amount) in order to optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystem of Kruger National Park in South Africa. The integrated Relative Vegetation Index approach (iRVI) to quantify the amount of herbaceous biomass at the end of the rain season and the Accumulated Relative Normalized Difference vegetation index decrement (ARND) related to vegetation moisture content were selected. The iRVI and ARND related to vegetation amount and moisture content, respectively, were combined in order to monitor vegetation dryness and optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystems. In situ fire activity data was used to evaluate the significance of the iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness for fire risk assessment. Results from the binary logistic regression analysis confirmed that the assessment of fire risk was optimized by integration of both the vegetation quantity (iRVI) and vegetation moisture content (ARND) as statistically significant explanatory variables. Consequently, the integrated use of both iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness provides a more suitable tool for fire management and suppression compared to other traditional satellite-based fire risk assessment methods, only related to vegetation moisture content.

Wildfire exposure analysis on the national forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Buonopane, Michelle; Reger, Allison; Finney, Mark A

2013-06-01

We analyzed wildfire exposure for key social and ecological features on the national forests in Oregon and Washington. The forests contain numerous urban interfaces, old growth forests, recreational sites, and habitat for rare and endangered species. Many of these resources are threatened by wildfire, especially in the east Cascade Mountains fire-prone forests. The study illustrates the application of wildfire simulation for risk assessment where the major threat is from large and rare naturally ignited fires, versus many previous studies that have focused on risk driven by frequent and small fires from anthropogenic ignitions. Wildfire simulation modeling was used to characterize potential wildfire behavior in terms of annual burn probability and flame length. Spatial data on selected social and ecological features were obtained from Forest Service GIS databases and elsewhere. The potential wildfire behavior was then summarized for each spatial location of each resource. The analysis suggested strong spatial variation in both burn probability and conditional flame length for many of the features examined, including biodiversity, urban interfaces, and infrastructure. We propose that the spatial patterns in modeled wildfire behavior could be used to improve existing prioritization of fuel management and wildfire preparedness activities within the Pacific Northwest region. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Fire safety in the operating room.

PubMed

Rinder, Christine Stowe

2008-12-01

Elimination of flammable anesthetic gases has had little effect on operating-room fires except to change their etiology. Electrocautery and lasers, in an oxygen-enriched environment, can ignite even the most fire-resistant materials, including the patient, and the fire triad possibilities in the operating room are nearly limitless. This review will: identify operating room contents capable of acting as ignition/oxidizer/fuel sources, highlight operating room items that are uniquely potent fire triad contributors, and operating room identify settings where fire risk is enhanced by proximity of triad components in time or space. Anesthesiologists are cognizant of the risk of airway surgery fires due to laser ignition of the endotracheal tube and/or its contents. Recently, however, head/neck surgery under monitored anesthesia care has emerged as a high-risk setting for operating room fires; burn injuries represent 20% of monitored anesthesia care-related malpractice claims, 95% of which involved head/neck surgery. Operating room fires are infrequent but catastrophic. Operating room fire prevention depends on: (a)understanding how fire triad elements interact to create a fire, (b) recognizing how standard operating-room equipment, materials, and supplemental oxygen can become one of those elements, and (c) vigilance for circumstances that bring fire triad elements into close proximity.

Policy change and governance at the wildland-urban interface: the case of post-wildfire impacts in Boise, Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindquist, Eric

2013-04-01

In the summer of 2012 over 1.7 million acres (approximately 6900 sq kilometers) were burned from wildfires in the state of Idaho in the Western United States. While most of the these fires were in rural and wilderness areas, several significant fires occurred at the wildland-urban interface (WUI), threatening houses, communities and the built environment as never before. As the population of the Mountain West in the United States grows, the WUI (the area where homes are being built adjacent to traditionally wild or rural areas and the built environment encroaches on wildlands) is rapidly becoming an at risk area for human habitation. Efforts to make these areas more resilient and sustainable in the face of increasing fire risk, due to increasing drought and climate change, are resulting in efforts to change or adapt disaster response and planning policy. An increase in stakeholders, however, with diverse objectives and resources presents an opportunity to assess the current governance situation for policy change in response to wildland fires in the dynamic and complex context of the WUI. The research presented here will focus on the case of Treasure Valley region of southwest Idaho and Boise, the capitol city of Idaho. This region is illustrative of the growing urban western United States and the pressures from a growing population pushing into the WUI. This research frames fire policy and decision making at the wildland-urban interface within public policy process theory using the example of the summer of 2012 forest fires in Idaho (USA) and focuses on subsequents impact these fires are having on fire planning and policy in the Boise metropolitan region. The focus is on the diverse stakeholders (federal, state and regional agencies, tourism, agriculture and private sector interests, homeowner organizations, and fire response and recovery agencies) and their roles and responsibilities, their interactions, decision and policy processes, the use of science in decision making, post and pre disaster assessments, and subsequent policy changes. The conclusions will reflect on the outlook for the future of the WUI in regard to wildfire risk and response and on the contribution of policy process theory to this policy domain. This paper/poster addresses significant theoretical and empirical issues raised in the Call for Papers for NH7.1 "Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires: models, theory and reality," including: pre-fire planning and risk management; post-fire evaluation; relation between wildfires and social changes; and the influence of weather and climate change on wildfire activity.

Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Day, Michelle A; McHugh, Charles W; Short, Karen; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Finney, Mark A; Calkin, David E

2014-12-01

Substantial investments in fuel management activities on national forests in the western US are part of a national strategy to reduce human and ecological losses from catastrophic wildfire and create fire resilient landscapes. Prioritizing these investments within and among national forests remains a challenge, partly because a comprehensive assessment that establishes the current wildfire risk and exposure does not exist, making it difficult to identify national priorities and target specific areas for fuel management. To gain a broader understanding of wildfire exposure in the national forest system, we analyzed an array of simulated and empirical data on wildfire activity and fuel treatment investments on the 82 western US national forests. We first summarized recent fire data to examine variation among the Forests in ignition frequency and burned area in relation to investments in fuel reduction treatments. We then used simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale spatial variation in burn probability and intensity. We also estimated the probability of a mega-fire event on each of the Forests, and the transmission of fires ignited on national forests to the surrounding urban interface. The analysis showed a good correspondence between recent area burned and predictions from the simulation models. The modeling also illustrated the magnitude of the variation in both burn probability and intensity among and within Forests. Simulated burn probabilities in most instances were lower than historical, reflecting fire exclusion on many national forests. Simulated wildfire transmission from national forests to the urban interface was highly variable among the Forests. We discuss how the results of the study can be used to prioritize investments in hazardous fuel reduction within a comprehensive multi-scale risk management framework. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Combining Landsat TM multispectral satellite imagery and different modelling approaches for mapping post-fire erosion changes in a Mediterranean site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropoulos, George P.; Kairis, Orestis; Karamesouti, Mina; Papanikolaou, Ioannis D.; Kosmas, Constantinos

2013-04-01

South European countries are naturally vulnerable to wildfires. Their natural resources such as soil, vegetation and water may be severely affected by wildfires, causing an imminent environmental deterioration due to the complex interdependence among biophysical components. Soil surface water erosion is a natural process essential for soil formation that is affected by such interdependences. Accelerated erosion due to wildfires, constitutes a major restrictive factor for ecosystem sustainability. In 2007, South European countries were severely affected by wildfires, with more than 500,000 hectares of land burnt in that year alone, well above the average of the last 30 years. The present work examines the changes in spatial variability of soil erosion rates as a result of a wildfire event that took place in Greece in 2007, one of the most devastating years in terms of wildfire hazards. Regional estimates of soil erosion rates before and after the fire outbreak were derived from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE, Renard et al. 1991) and the Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment model (PESERA, Kirkby, 1999; Kirkby et al., 2000). Inputs for both models included climatic, land-use, soil type, topography and land use management data. Where appropriate, both models were also fed with input data derived from the analysis of LANDSAT TM satellite imagery available in our study area, acquired before and shortly after the fire suppression. Our study was compiled and performed in a GIS environment. In overall, the loss of vegetation from the fire outbreak caused a substantial increase of soil erosion rates in the affected area, particularly towards the steep slopes. Both tested models were compared to each other and noticeable differences were observed in the soil erosion predictions before and after the fire event. These are attributed to the different parameterization requirements of the 2 models. This quantification of sediment supply through the river network provides also important insights regarding both the present-day sedimentation processes in the study area as well as the potential flooding hazard. Our work underpins that valuable contribution of remote sensing technology, combined with modeling approaches for depicting the spatial distribution of changes in erosion rates after the wildfire. KEYWORDS: erosion risk, RUSLE, PESERA, wildland fires, LANDSAT TM, remote sensing, Geographical Information Systems, Greece.

Spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric mercury concentrations emitted from a coal-fired power plant in Mexico.

PubMed

García, Gilberto Fuentes; Álvarez, Humberto Bravo; Echeverría, Rodolfo Sosa; de Alba, Sergio Rosas; Rueda, Víctor Magaña; Dosantos, Ernesto Caetano; Cruz, Gustavo Vázquez

2017-09-01

Atmospheric mercury in the environment as a result of the consumption of fossil fuels, such as coal used in electricity generation, has gained increased attention worldwide because of its toxicity, atmospheric persistence, and bioaccumulation. Determining or predicting the concentration of this pollutant in ambient air is essential for determining sensitive areas requiring health protection. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variability of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) concentrations and its dry deposition surrounding the Presidente Plutarco Elías Calles (CETEPEC) coal-fired power plant, located on Mexico's Pacific coast. The CALPUFF dispersion model was applied on the basis of the daily consumption of coal during 2013 for each generating unit in the power plant and considering the local scale. The established 300-ng/m 3 annual average risk factor considered by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (U.S. DHHS) and Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) must not be exceeded to meet satisfactory air quality levels. An area of 65 × 60 km was evaluated, and the results show that the risk level for mercury vapor was not exceeded because the annual average concentration was 2.8 ng/m 3 . Although the predicted risk level was not exceeded, continuous monitoring studies of GEM and of particulates in the atmosphere, soil, and water may be necessary to identify the concentration of this pollutant, specifically that resulting from coal-fired power plants operated in environmental areas of interest in Mexico. The dry mercury deposition was low in the study area; according to the CALPUFF model, the annual average was 1.40E-2 ng/m 2 /sec. These results represent a starting point for Mexico's government to implement the Minamata Convention on Mercury, which Mexico signed in 2013. The obtained concentrations of mercury from a bigger coal-fired plant in Mexico, through the application of the CALPUFF dispersion model by the mercury emissions, are below the level recommended according to the US Department of Health and Human Services and Integrated Risk Information System. These results provide evidence of important progress in the planning and installation to the future of monitoring mercury stations in the area of interest.

A spatial stochastic programming model for timber and core area management under risk of stand-replacing fire

Treesearch

Dung Tuan Nguyen

2012-01-01

Forest harvest scheduling has been modeled using deterministic and stochastic programming models. Past models seldom address explicit spatial forest management concerns under the influence of natural disturbances. In this research study, we employ multistage full recourse stochastic programming models to explore the challenges and advantages of building spatial...

Selective Cutting Impact on Carbon Storage in Fremont-Winema National Forest, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huybrechts, C.; Cleve, C. T.

2004-12-01

Management personnel of the Fremont-Winema National Forest in southern Oregon were interested in investigating how selective cutting or fuel load reduction treatments affect forest carbon sinks and as an ancillary product, fire risk. This study was constructed with the objective of providing this information to the forest administrators, as well as to satisfy a directive to study carbon management, a component of the 2004 NASA's Application Division Program Plan. During the summer of 2004, a request for decision support tools by the forest management was addressed by a NASA sponsored student-led, student-run internship group called DEVELOP. This full-time10-week program was designed to be an introduction to work done by earth scientists, professional business / client relationships and the facilities available at NASA Ames. Four college and graduate students from varying educational backgrounds designed the study and implementation plan. The team collected data for five consecutive days in Oregon throughout the Fremont-Winema forest and the surrounding terrain, consisting of soil sampling for underground carbon dynamics, fire model and vegetation map validation. The goal of the carbon management component of the project was to model current carbon levels, then to gauge the effect of fuel load reduction treatments. To study carbon dynamics, MODIS derived fraction photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) maps, regional climate data, and Landsat 5 generated dominant vegetation species and land cover maps were used in conjunction with the NASA - Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) model. To address fire risk the dominant vegetation species map was used to estimate fuel load based on species biomass in conjunction with a mosaic of digital elevation models (DEMs) as components to the creation of an Anderson-inspired fuel map, a rate of spread in meters/minute map and a flame length map using ArcMap 9 and FlamMap. Fire risk results are to be viewed qualitatively as maps output spatial distribution of data rather then quantitative assessment of risk. For the first time ever, the resource managers at the Fremont-Winema forest will be taking into consideration the value of carbon as a resource in their decision making process for the 2005 Fremont-Winema forest management plan.

Understanding the long-term fire risks in forests affected by sudden oak death

Treesearch

Yana Valachovic; Chris Lee; Radoslaw Glebocki; Hugh Scanlon; J. Morgan Varner; David Rizzo

2010-01-01

It is assumed that large numbers of dead and down tanoak in forests infested by Phytophthora ramorum contribute to increased fire hazard risk and fuel loading. We studied the impact of P. ramorum infestation on surface fuel loading, potential fire hazard, and potential fire behavior in Douglas-fir- (Pseudotsuga...

Risk Factors for Rural Residential Fires

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen; Zwerling, Craig

2007-01-01

Context and Purpose: Rural households report high fire-related mortality and injury rates, but few studies have examined the risk factors for fires. This study aims to identify occupant and household characteristics that are associated with residential fires in a rural cohort. Methods: Of 1,005 households contacted in a single rural county, 691…

Using risk analysis to reveal opportunities for the management of unplanned ignitions in wilderness

Treesearch

Kevin Barnett; Carol Miller; Tyron J. Venn

2016-01-01

A goal of fire management in wilderness is to allow fire to play its natural ecological role without intervention. Unfortunately, most unplanned ignitions in wilderness are suppressed, in part because of the risk they might pose to values outside of the wilderness. We capitalize on recent advances in fire risk analysis to demonstrate a risk-based approach for revealing...

Application of Graph Theory to Cost-Effective Fire Protection of Chemical Plants During Domino Effects.

PubMed

Khakzad, Nima; Landucci, Gabriele; Reniers, Genserik

2017-09-01

In the present study, we have introduced a methodology based on graph theory and multicriteria decision analysis for cost-effective fire protection of chemical plants subject to fire-induced domino effects. By modeling domino effects in chemical plants as a directed graph, the graph centrality measures such as out-closeness and betweenness scores can be used to identify the installations playing a key role in initiating and propagating potential domino effects. It is demonstrated that active fire protection of installations with the highest out-closeness score and passive fire protection of installations with the highest betweenness score are the most effective strategies for reducing the vulnerability of chemical plants to fire-induced domino effects. We have employed a dynamic graph analysis to investigate the impact of both the availability and the degradation of fire protection measures over time on the vulnerability of chemical plants. The results obtained from the graph analysis can further be prioritized using multicriteria decision analysis techniques such as the method of reference point to find the most cost-effective fire protection strategy. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Taylor, Steve W.; Candau, Jean-Noël; Stralberg, Diana; Marshall, Ginny A.; Little, John M.; Flannigan, Mike D.

2017-02-01

In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating ‘spread days’ to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada’s forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.

[Effects of fire recurrence on fire behaviour in cork oak woodlands (Quercus suber L.) and Mediterranean shrublands over the last fifty years].

PubMed

Schaffhauser, Alice; Pimont, François; Curt, Thomas; Cassagne, Nathalie; Dupuy, Jean-Luc; Tatoni, Thierry

2015-12-01

Past fire recurrence impacts the vegetation structure, and it is consequently hypothesized to alter its future fire behaviour. We examined the fire behaviour in shrubland-forest mosaics of southeastern France, which were organized along a range of fire frequency (0 to 3-4 fires along the past 50 years) and had different time intervals between fires. The mosaic was dominated by Quercus suber L. and Erica-Cistus shrubland communities. We described the vegetation structure through measurements of tree height, base of tree crown or shrub layer, mean diameter, cover, plant water content and bulk density. We used the physical model Firetec to simulate the fire behaviour. Fire intensity, fire spread, plant water content and biomass loss varied significantly according to fire recurrence and vegetation structure, mainly linked to the time since the last fire, then the number of fires. These results confirm that past fire recurrence affects future fire behaviour, with multi-layered vegetation (particularly high shrublands) producing more intense fires, contrary to submature Quercus woodlands that have not burnt since 1959 and that are unlikely to reburn. Further simulations, with more vegetation scenes according to shrub and canopy covers, will complete this study in order to discuss the fire propagation risk in heterogeneous vegetation, particularly in the Mediterranean area, with a view to a local management of these ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

2015-01-01

In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

Estimation of the Forest Fire Risk in Indonesia based on Satellite Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, H.; Takahashi, Y.; Hashimoto, A.; Akita, M.; Hasegawa, Y.; Ogino, Y.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.

2016-12-01

To minimize forest fires in tropical area is extremely important, because the fire has a large impact on global warming, biodiversity, and human society. In the previous study, Shimada and Ishibashi monitored the ground-water lever from the value of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained in Kalimantan Island to predict where the forest fires will happen. We have developed a method to map the forest fire risk by calculating the value of Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index 2 (MSAVI2). Moreover, we investigated the relation between the distance from a road as an artificial factor and the occurrence of the fire.First, calculating the MSAVI2 from Landsat 7 and 8 images of August, 2015 around Martapura in South Sumatra, Indonesia, we mapped the area where the plants were stressed. Next, we checked the degrees of matching between the area of low MSAVI2 and the forest fire points.As a result, half of the fires happened in the area having the MSAVI2 values of 0.20 to 0.35. When we focused on only the area which is over 5 kilometers far from a road, the degrees of matching became higher; it rose up to 62 percent.Those results indicate that the fire risks relate to the dry area calculated as low MSAVI2 in the case with less human activities. We need to consider an effect of artificial factors to estimate the whole risk of forest fire.In conclusion, the map of forest fire risk by calculating the value of MSAVI2 is applicable to an area with less artificial factor, while we have to take the effect of artificial fire factor into the consideration.

Which subgroups of fire fighters are more prone to work-related diminished health requirements?

PubMed

Plat, Marie-Christine J; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Sluiter, Judith K

2012-10-01

To determine whether certain subgroups of fire fighters are prone to work-related diminished health requirements. The health requirements for fire-fighting were tested in a workers' health surveillance (WHS) setting. These health requirements included psychological, physical and sense-related components as well as cardiovascular risk factors. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for the presence of the diminished health requirements were calculated for the subgroups of gender, professionalism and age. The prevalence of diminished psychological requirements was equivalent among the subgroups, and no significant high-risk group was identified. As compared to men fire fighters, women fire fighters were more likely to have diminished physical requirements (OR 28.5; 95% CI 12.1-66.9) and less likely to have cardiovascular risk factors (OR 0.3; 0.1-0.5). As compared to volunteer fire fighters, professionals were less likely to have diminished physical requirements (OR 0.5; 0.3-0.9), but professionals had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors with an odds ratio of 1.9 (1.1-3.2). As compared to the youngest fire fighters, the oldest fire fighters were more likely to have diminished sense-related requirements (OR 7.1; 3.4-15.2); a similar comparison could be made between oldest and middle-aged fire fighters (OR 5.1; 2.5-10.5). In addition, the oldest fire fighters were more likely to have cardiovascular risk factors when compared to the youngest (OR 4.4; 1.7-11.1) and to the middle-aged fire fighters (OR 3.1; 1.2-7.9). Subgroups (gender, professionalism and age) of fire fighters are prone to at least one specific work-related diminished health requirement. Therefore, parts of the WHS could be applied with more attention to these high-risk groups.

Assessing Surface Fuel Hazard in Coastal Conifer Forests through the Use of LiDAR Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koulas, Christos

The research problem that this thesis seeks to examine is a method of predicting conventional fire hazards using data drawn from specific regions, namely the Sooke and Goldstream watershed regions in coastal British Columbia. This thesis investigates whether LiDAR data can be used to describe conventional forest stand fire hazard classes. Three objectives guided this thesis: to discuss the variables associated with fire hazard, specifically the distribution and makeup of fuel; to examine the relationship between derived LiDAR biometrics and forest attributes related to hazard assessment factors defined by the Capitol Regional District (CRD); and to assess the viability of the LiDAR biometric decision tree in the CRD based on current frameworks for use. The research method uses quantitative datasets to assess the optimal generalization of these types of fire hazard data through discriminant analysis. Findings illustrate significant LiDAR-derived data limitations, and reflect the literature in that flawed field application of data modelling techniques has led to a disconnect between the ways in which fire hazard models have been intended to be used by scholars and the ways in which they are used by those tasked with prevention of forest fires. It can be concluded that a significant trade-off exists between computational requirements for wildfire simulation models and the algorithms commonly used by field teams to apply these models with remote sensing data, and that CRD forest management practices would need to change to incorporate a decision tree model in order to decrease risk.

Monitoring Of Air Quality Parameters For Construction Of Fire Risk Detection Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romancov, I. I.; Dashkovky, A. G.; Panin, V. F.; Melkov, D. N.

2017-01-01

The analysis of fire developmental process is given, which showed that there are seven stages of fire development, a set of phenomena (factors, signs) of fire risk condition, characterized by a set of defined parameters, corresponds to each stage. Observed that the registration of high staging factors (high ambient temperature, content of CO2, etc.) means the registration of actual low staging fire (thermal destruction of materials gases, fumes, etc.) - fire risk situation. It is shown that the decrease of registered factor staging leads to construction of fire preventive and diagnostic systems as the lower is registered stage, the more uncertain is connection between the fact of its detection and a fire. It is indicated that with development of electronic equipment the staging of fire situations factors used for detection is reducing in whole, and also it is noted that for each control object it is necessary to choose (identify) the optimal factor, in particular, in many ways the optimal factor for aircrafts are smokes and their TV image.

[Considering the current state of fire safety in Taiwan's care environment from the perspective of the nation's worst recent hospital fire].

PubMed

Tseng, Wei-Wen; Shih, Chung-Liang; Chien, Shen-Wen

2013-04-01

Taiwan's worst hospital fire in history on October 23rd, 2012 at Sinying Hospital's Bei-Men Branch resulted in 13 elderly patient deaths and over 70 injuries. The heavy casualties were due in part to the serious condition of patients. Some patients on life-support machines were unable to move or be moved. This disaster highlights the issue of fire safety in small-scale hospitals that have transformed existing hospital space into special care environments for elderly patients. Compared with medical centers and general hospitals, these small-scale health facilities are ill equipped to deal properly with fire safety management and emergency response issues due to inadequate fire protection facilities, fire safety equipment, and human resources. Small-scale facilities that offer health care and medical services to mostly immobile patients face fire risks that differ significantly from general health care facilities. This paper focuses on fire risks in small-scale facilities and suggests a strategy for fire prevention and emergency response procedures, including countermeasures for fire risk assessment, management, and emergency response, in order to improve fire safety at these institutions in Taiwan.

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States.

PubMed

Littell, Jeremy S; Peterson, David L; Riley, Karin L; Liu, Yongquiang; Luce, Charles H

2016-07-01

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate - including short- and long-term droughts - are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Refugee camps, fire disasters and burn injuries.

PubMed

Atiyeh, B S; Gunn, S W A

2017-09-30

In the past five years, no fewer than 15 conflicts have brought unspeakable tragedy and misery to millions across the world. At present, nearly 20 people are forcibly displaced every minute as a result of conflict or persecution, representing a crisis of historic proportions. Many displaced persons end up in camps generally developing in an impromptu fashion, and are totally dependent on humanitarian aid. The precarious condition of temporary installations puts the nearly 700 refugee camps worldwide at high risk of disease, child soldier and terrorist recruitment, and physical and sexual violence. Poorly planned, densely packed refugee settlements are also one of the most pathogenic environments possible, representing high risk for fires with potential for uncontrolled fire spread and development over sometimes quite large areas. Moreover, providing healthcare to refugees comes with its own unique challenges. Internationally recognized guidelines for minimum standards in shelters and settlements have been set, however they remain largely inapplicable. As for fire risk reduction, and despite the high number of fire incidents, it is not evident that fire safety can justify a higher priority. In that regard, a number of often conflicting influences will need to be considered. The greatest challenge remains in balancing the various risks, such as the need/cost of shelter against the fire risk/cost of fire protection.

Refugee camps, fire disasters and burn injuries

PubMed Central

Atiyeh, B.S.; Gunn, S.W.A.

2017-01-01

Summary In the past five years, no fewer than 15 conflicts have brought unspeakable tragedy and misery to millions across the world. At present, nearly 20 people are forcibly displaced every minute as a result of conflict or persecution, representing a crisis of historic proportions. Many displaced persons end up in camps generally developing in an impromptu fashion, and are totally dependent on humanitarian aid. The precarious condition of temporary installations puts the nearly 700 refugee camps worldwide at high risk of disease, child soldier and terrorist recruitment, and physical and sexual violence. Poorly planned, densely packed refugee settlements are also one of the most pathogenic environments possible, representing high risk for fires with potential for uncontrolled fire spread and development over sometimes quite large areas. Moreover, providing healthcare to refugees comes with its own unique challenges. Internationally recognized guidelines for minimum standards in shelters and settlements have been set, however they remain largely inapplicable. As for fire risk reduction, and despite the high number of fire incidents, it is not evident that fire safety can justify a higher priority. In that regard, a number of often conflicting influences will need to be considered. The greatest challenge remains in balancing the various risks, such as the need/cost of shelter against the fire risk/cost of fire protection. PMID:29849526

Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire-climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600-2015 CE.

PubMed

Taylor, Alan H; Trouet, Valerie; Skinner, Carl N; Stephens, Scott

2016-11-29

Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire-climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600-2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring-based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation-following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)-reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire-climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire-climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California.

Evacuation Preparedness in the Event of Fire in Intensive Care Units in Sweden: More is Needed.

PubMed

Löfqvist, Erika; Oskarsson, Åsa; Brändström, Helge; Vuorio, Alpo; Haney, Michael

2017-06-01

Introduction Hospitals, including intensive care units (ICUs), can be subject to threat from fire and require urgent evacuation. Hypothesis The hypothesis was that the current preparedness for ICU evacuation for fire in the national public hospital system in a wealthy country was very good, using Sweden as model. An already validated questionnaire for this purpose was adapted to national/local circumstances and translated into Swedish. It aimed to elicit information concerning fire response planning, personnel education, training, and exercises. Questionnaire results (yes/no answers) were collected and answers collated to assess grouped responses. Frequencies of responses were determined. While a written hospital plan for fire response and evacuation was noted by all responders, personnel familiarity with the plan was less frequent. Deficiencies were reported concerning all categories: lack of written fire response plan for ICU, lack of personnel education in this, and lack of practical exercises to practice urgent evacuation in the event of fire. These findings were interpreted as an indication of risk for worse consequences for patients in the event of fire and ICU evacuation among the hospitals in the country that was assessed, despite clear regulations and requirements for these. The exact reasons for this lack of compliance with existing laws was not clear, though there are many possible explanations. To remedy this, more attention is needed concerning recognizing risk related to lack of preparedness. Where there exists a goal of high-quality work in the ICU, this should include general leadership and medical staff preparedness in the event of urgent ICU evacuation. Löfqvist E , Oskarsson A , Brändström H , Vuorio A , Haney M . Evacuation preparedness in the event of fire in intensive care units in Sweden: more is needed. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(3):317-320.

Cyberpark 2000: Protected Areas Management Pilot Project. Satellite time series vegetation monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteleone, M.; Lanorte, A.; Lasaponara, R.

2009-04-01

Cyberpark 2000 is a project funded by the UE Regional Operating Program of the Apulia Region (2000-2006). The main objective of the Cyberpark 2000 project is to develop a new assessment model for the management and monitoring of protected areas in Foggia Province (Apulia Region) based on Information and Communication Technologies. The results herein described are placed inside the research activities finalized to develop an environmental monitoring system knowledge based on the use of satellite time series. This study include: - A- satellite time series of high spatial resolution data for supporting the analysis of fire static risk factors through land use mapping and spectral/quantitative characterization of vegetation fuels; - B- satellite time series of MODIS for supporting fire dynamic risk evaluation of study area - Integrated fire detection by using thermal imaging cameras placed on panoramic view-points; - C - integrated high spatial and high temporal satellite time series for supporting studies in change detection factors or anomalies in vegetation covers; - D - satellite time-series for monitoring: (i) post fire vegetation recovery and (ii) spatio/temporal vegetation dynamics in unburned and burned vegetation covers.

Estimation of number of fatalities caused by toxic gases due to fire in road tunnels.

PubMed

Qu, Xiaobo; Meng, Qiang; Liu, Zhiyuan

2013-01-01

The quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is one of the explicit requirements under the European Union (EU) Directive (2004/54/EC). As part of this, it is essential to be able to estimate the number of fatalities in different accident scenarios. In this paper, a tangible methodology is developed to estimate the number of fatalities caused by toxic gases due to fire in road tunnels by incorporating traffic flow and the spread of fire in tunnels. First, a deterministic queuing model is proposed to calculate the number of people at risk, by taking into account tunnel geometry, traffic flow patterns, and incident response plans for road tunnels. Second, the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) is used to obtain the temperature and concentrations of CO, CO(2), and O(2). By taking advantage of the additivity of the fractional effective dose (FED) method, fatality rates for different locations in given time periods can be estimated. An illustrative case study is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Collaborative Approach to Community Wildfire Hazard Reduction

Treesearch

Marc Titus; Jennifer Hinderman

2006-01-01

This paper highlights the very successful collaborative approach to community wildfire hazard reduction being used in the 5 county NW Region of the Washington State Department of Natural Resources. NW Region cooperators have created a successful model to help affected communities reduce their risks to wildland fire. Identified high risk communities have been approached...

A qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk perception and treatment options as related to wildfires in the USDA FS Region 3 National Forests

Treesearch

Ingrid M. Martin; Wade E. Martin; Carol B. Raish

2011-01-01

As the incidence of devastating fires rises, managing the risk posed by these fires has become critical. This report provides important information to examine the ways that different groups or disaster subcultures develop the mentalities or perceived realities that affect their views and responses concerning risk and disaster preparedness. Fire risk beliefs and...

Investing in rangeland restoration in the Arid West, USA: countering the effects of an invasive weed on the long-term fire cycle.

PubMed

Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca; Englin, Jeffrey; Nalle, Darek

2009-01-01

In large areas of the arid western United States, much of which are federally managed, fire frequencies and associated management costs are escalating as flammable, invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) increases its stronghold. Cheatgrass invasion and the subsequent increase in fire frequency result in the loss of native vegetation, less predictable forage availability for livestock and wildlife, and increased costs and risk associated with firefighting. Revegetation following fire on land that is partially invaded by cheatgrass can reduce both the dominance of cheatgrass and its associated high fire rate. Thus restoration can be viewed as an investment in fire-prevention and, if native seed is used, an investment in maintaining native vegetation on the landscape. Here we develop and employ a Markov model of vegetation dynamics for the sagebrush steppe ecosystem to predict vegetation change and management costs under different intensities and types of post-fire revegetation. We use the results to estimate the minimum total cost curves for maintaining native vegetation on the landscape and for preventing cheatgrass dominance. Our results show that across a variety of model parameter possibilities, increased investment in post-fire revegetation reduces long-term fire management costs by more than enough to offset the costs of revegetation. These results support that a policy of intensive post-fire revegetation will reduce long-term management costs for this ecosystem, in addition to providing environmental benefits. This information may help justify costs associated with revegetation and raise the priority of restoration in federal land budgets.

Creation and implementation of a certification system for insurability and fire risk classification for forest plantations

Treesearch

Veronica Loewe M.; Victor Vargas; Juan Miguel Ruiz; Andrea Alvarez C.; Felipe Lobo Q.

2015-01-01

Currently, the Chilean insurance market sells forest fire insurance policies and agricultural weather risk policies. However, access to forest fire insurance is difficult for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), with a significant proportion (close to 50%) of forest plantations being without coverage. Indeed, the insurance market that sells forest fire insurance...

Fire Severity and Intensity During Spring Burning in Natural and Masticated Mixed Shrub Woodlands

Treesearch

Tim Bradley; Jennifer Gibson; Windy Bunn

2006-01-01

Fire risk is an ever present management concern in many urban interface regions. To mitigate this risk, land management agencies have expanded their options beyond prescribed fire to include vegetation mastication and other mechanical fuel treatments. This research project examined fire severity and intensity in masticated and unmanipulated units that were burned in...

Pediatric fire deaths in Ontario

PubMed Central

Chen, Yingming Amy; Bridgman-Acker, Karen; Edwards, Jim; Lauwers, Albert Edward

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective To identify the predictors of residential fire deaths in the Ontario pediatric population using systematically collected data from the Office of the Chief Coroner. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Ontario. Participants Children younger than 16 years of age who died in accidental residential fires in Ontario between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2006. Main outcome measures The study retrospectively reviewed the coroner’s case files for 60 subjects who qualified according to the selection criteria. Reviewed documents included the coroner’s investigation statements, autopsy reports, toxicology reports, fire marshal’s reports, police reports, and Children’s Aid Society (CAS) reports. Information on a range of demographic, behavioural, social, and environmental factors was collected. Statistical tests, including relative risk, relative risk confidence intervals, and χ2 tests were performed to determine the correlation between factors of interest and to establish their significance. Results Thirty-nine fire events resulting in 60 deaths occurred between 2001 and 2006. Fire play and electrical failures were the top 2 causes of residential fires. More fires occurred during the night (midnight to 9 am) than during the day (9 am to midnight). Nighttime fires were most commonly due to electrical failures or unattended candles, whereas daytime fires were primarily caused by unsupervised fire play and stove fires. Smoke alarms were present at 32 of 39 fire events (82%), but overall alarm functionality was only 54%. Children from families with a history of CAS involvement were approximately 32 times more likely to die in fires. Conclusion Risk factors for pediatric fire death in Ontario include smoke alarm functionality, fire play, fire escape behaviour, and CAS involvement. Efforts to prevent residential fire deaths should target these populations and risk factors, and primary care physicians should consider education around these issues as a primary preventive strategy for families with young children. PMID:21571705

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Peterson, Mark J; Jones, Daniel Steven

An ecological risk assessment was conducted at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, as a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF). The focus of the assessment was a testing program at Cibola Range, which involved an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, i.e., M60-A1 tanks. The problem formulation for the assessment included conceptual models for three component activities of the test, helicopter overflight, missile firing, and tracked vehicle movement, and two ecological endpoint entities, woody desert wash communities and desert mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus crooki) populations. An activity-specific risk assessment framework was available to provide guidancemore » for assessing risks associated with aircraft overflights. Key environmental features of the study area include barren desert pavement and tree-lined desert washes. The primary stressors associated with helicopter overflights were sound and the view of the aircraft. The primary stressor associated with Hellfire missile firing was sound. The principal stressor associated with tracked vehicle movement was soil disturbance, and a resulting, secondary stressor was hydrological change. Water loss to washes and wash vegetation was expected to result from increased ponding, infiltrationand/or evaporation associated with disturbances to desert pavement. A plan for estimating integrated risks from the three military activities was included in the problem formulation.« less

Oil well fires of Operation Desert Storm--defining troop exposures and determining health risks.

PubMed

Heller, Jack M

2011-07-01

During Operation Desert Storm, in February 1991, Iraqi troops began burning Kuwaiti oil wells. Almost immediately there was concern about possible adverse health effects in U.S. personnel exposed to crude oil combustion products. Combustions products were predicted from the known composition of Kuwaiti crude oil. Monitoring sites were established in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait; about 5,000 environmental samples were studied. Data collected were used to develop health risk assessments for the geographic areas sampled. This initial approach to assessing risk had to be greatly expanded when Congress passed Public Law 102-190, requiring development of means to calculate environmental exposures for individual U.S. service members. To estimate daily exposure levels for the entire area over 10 months for all U.S. troops, air dispersion modeling was used in conjunction with satellite imagery and geographic information system technology. This methodology made it possible to separate the risk caused by oil fire smoke from the total risk from all sources for each service member. The U.S. military responses to health concerns related to the oil well fires and to Public Law 102-190 were reviewed. Consideration was given to changes in technology, practices, and policies over the last two decades that might impact a similar contemporary response.

Reducing hazardous fuels on nonindustrial private forests: factors influencing landowner decisions

Treesearch

A. Paige Fischer

2011-01-01

In mixed-ownership landscapes, fuels conditions on private lands have implications for fire risk on public lands and vice versa. The success of efforts to mitigate fire risk depends on the extent, efficacy, and coordination of treatments on nearby ownerships. Understanding factors in forest owners' decisions to address the risk of wildland fire is therefore...

Using ArcObjects for automating fireshed assessments and analyzing wildfire risk

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Bernhard Bahro; Mark Finney

2006-01-01

Firesheds are geographic units used by the Forest Service to delineate areas with similar fire regimes, fire history, and wildland fire risk issues. Fireshed assessment is a collaborative process where specialists design fuel treatments to mitigate wildfire risk. Fireshed assessments are an iterative process where fuel treatments are proposed for specific stands based...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

Relationships between annual plant productivity, nitrogen deposition and fire size in low-elevation California desert scrub

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rao, Leela E.; Matchett, John R.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Johns, Robert; Minnich, Richard A.; Allen, Edith B.

2014-01-01

Although precipitation is correlated with fire size in desert ecosystems and is typically used as an indirect surrogate for fine fuel load, a direct link between fine fuel biomass and fire size has not been established. In addition, nitrogen (N) deposition can affect fire risk through its fertilisation effect on fine fuel production. In this study, we examine the relationships between fire size and precipitation, N deposition and biomass with emphasis on identifying biomass and N deposition thresholds associated with fire spreading across the landscape. We used a 28-year fire record of 582 burns from low-elevation desert scrub to evaluate the relationship of precipitation, N deposition and biomass with the distribution of fire sizes using quantile regression. We found that models using annual biomass have similar predictive ability to those using precipitation and N deposition at the lower to intermediate portions of the fire size distribution. No distinct biomass threshold was found, although within the 99th percentile of the distribution fire size increased with greater than 125 g m–2 of winter fine fuel production. The study did not produce an N deposition threshold, but did validate the value of 125 g m–2 of fine fuel for spread of fires.

Probabilistic soil erosion modeling using the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMIT) after wildfires

Treesearch

P. R. Robichaud; W. J. Elliot; J. W. Wagenbrenner

2011-01-01

The decision of whether or not to apply post-fire hillslope erosion mitigation treatments, and if so, where these treatments are most needed, is a multi-step process. Land managers must assess the risk of damaging runoff and sediment delivery events occurring on the unrecovered burned hillslope. We developed the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) to address this need...

Fire characteristics associated with firefighter injury on large federal wildland fires.

PubMed

Britton, Carla; Lynch, Charles F; Torner, James; Peek-Asa, Corinne

2013-02-01

Wildland fires present many injury hazards to firefighters. We estimate injury rates and identify fire-related factors associated with injury. Data from the National Interagency Fire Center from 2003 to 2007 provided the number of injuries in which the firefighter could not return to his or her job assignment, person-days worked, and fire characteristics (year, region, season, cause, fuel type, resistance to control, and structures destroyed). We assessed fire-level risk factors of having at least one reported injury using logistic regression. Negative binomial regression was used to examine incidence rate ratios associated with fire-level risk factors. Of 867 fires, 9.5% required the most complex management and 24.7% required the next-highest level of management. Fires most often occurred in the western United States (82.8%), during the summer (69.6%), caused by lightening (54.9%). Timber was the most frequent fuel source (40.2%). Peak incident management level, person-days of exposure, and the fire's resistance to control were significantly related to the odds of a fire having at least one reported injury. However, the most complex fires had a lower injury incidence rate than less complex fires. Although fire complexity and the number of firefighters were associated with the risk for at least one reported injury, the more experienced and specialized firefighting teams had lower injury incidence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reduced frequency and severity of residential fires following delivery of fire prevention education by on-duty fire fighters: cluster randomized controlled study.

PubMed

Clare, Joseph; Garis, Len; Plecas, Darryl; Jennings, Charles

2012-04-01

In 2008, Surrey Fire Services, British Columbia, commenced a firefighter-delivered, door-to-door fire-prevention education and smoke alarm examination/installation initiative with the intention of reducing the frequency and severity of residential structure fires in the City of Surrey. High-risk zones within the city were identified and 18,473 home visits were undertaken across seven temporal delivery cohorts (13.8% of non-apartment dwellings in the city). The frequency and severity of fires pre- and post- the home visit intervention was examined in comparison to randomized high-risk cluster controls. Overall, the frequency of fires was found to have reduced in the city overall, however, the reduction in the intervention cohorts was significantly larger than for controls. Furthermore, when fires did occur within the intervention cohorts, smoke detectors were activated more frequently and the fires were confined to the object of origin more often post-home visits. No equivalent pattern was observed for the cluster control. On-duty fire fighters can reduce the frequency and severity of residential fires through targeted, door-to-door distribution of fire prevention education in high-risk areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Short, Steven M.; Coles, Garill A.; Bohlander, Karl L.

In June 2004 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) amended its fire protection requirements to permit existing nuclear power reactor licensees to voluntarily adopt fire protection requirements contained in National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 805. NFPA 805 is a performance-based standard for nuclear power plant fire protection that is an alternative to the deterministic, prescriptive fire protection requirements, such as 10 CFR 50 Appendix R, that was issued in 1980. One aspect of implementing NFPA 805 is that the licensee adopts the performance goals, objectives, and criteria for nuclear safety specified in the Standard. These goals, objectives, and criteriamore » can be met through the implementation of deterministic approaches or performance-based approaches, including engineering analyses, probabilistic risk assessment, and fire modeling. Licensees voluntarily adopting the fire protection requirements in NFPA 805 must submit a license amendment request (LAR) to the NRC. The LAR provides the new proposed fire protection licensing basis, including the methodology and results of required evaluations and analyses that show how the NFPA 805 performance criteria are met. As of August 2014, licensees have submitted LARs for 26 nuclear power plants, representing 42 nuclear reactor units. Of these, 7 nuclear power plants, representing 10 nuclear reactor units, have been issued a safety evaluation (SE) by the NRC approving transition of their fire protection licensing basis to one that complies with NFPA 805. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) supports the NRC staff’s technical review of the LARs in the areas of fundamental fire protection, safe shutdown analysis, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). PNNL, of course, cannot speak for the nuclear industry and its choice of implementation strategies or the NRC staff’s assessment of the approaches being taken to adopt NFPA 805. However, as a reviewer of the technical details of these submittals, PNNL is in a position to observe the array of implementation tactics taken in these submittals, and observe different ways licensees are making the NFPA 805 process work. For example, we see differences in how fire areas are being transitioned, the kinds of plant modifications being implemented, the changes being made to plant procedures, the number and types of recovery actions being credited, and the kinds and extent of detailed modeling being performed in support of the Fire PRAs. As a caveat, we note that it is probably too early to comment on the overall success or limitations of the NFPA 805 process or provide lessons learned for the future. Furthermore, it is not our intention to endorse any particular approach taken in a submittal over another or to critique the industry or the regulator. Rather our goal in this paper is to summarize a set of interesting and useful differences across submittals that may provide context for further future discussions about what we (i.e., reviewers, industry, and regulators) have learned in being part of the NFPA process; and how to best use that information to inform future NFPA 805 activities or other risk-informed endeavors.« less

Adapting to the reality of climate change at Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.

2007-01-01

Ecosystem modeling of possible future changes in the GNP mountain environments suggest that increased tree growth rates and evapotranspiration will reduce soil moisture and streamflow. The drier forests, with more wood, will burn more frequently and with greater severity, leading to degra- dation in air quality and increased risk to people and infrastructure. Management of forest fires is an important issue in the arid western United States. In 2003, 13% of GNP’s 4,082 km 2 was burned in three large fires and numerous smaller fires. Managers can accomplish some of their goals, such as preserving threatened wildlife populations, by altering their management of fires. In 2003, intense efforts were successfully made to divert the fires away from valuable grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) habitat that contained huckleberry plants ( Vaccinium spp .) necessary to ensure bear survival through the winter.

Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.; Billmire, Michael; Elliot, William J.; Robichaud, Pete R.

2016-04-01

Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. Flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies after moderate and high severity wildfires. The problem is that mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fires, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, so there is an urgent need for a rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. Past post-fire modeling efforts have usually relied on lumped, conceptual models because of the lack of readily available, spatially-explicit data layers on the key controls of topography, vegetation type, climate, and soil characteristics. The purpose of this project is to develop a set of spatially-explicit data layers for use in process-based models such as WEPP, and to make these data layers freely available. The resulting interactive online modeling database (http://geodjango.mtri.org/geowepp/) is now operational and publically available for 17 western states in the USA. After a fire, users only need to upload a soil burn severity map, and this is combined with the pre-existing data layers to generate the model inputs needed for spatially explicit models such as GeoWEPP (Renschler, 2003). The development of this online database has allowed us to predict post-fire erosion and various remediation scenarios in just 1-7 days for six fires ranging in size from 4-540 km2. These initial successes have stimulated efforts to further improve the spatial extent and amount of data, and add functionality to support the USGS debris flow model, batch processing for Disturbed WEPP (Elliot et al., 2004) and ERMiT (Robichaud et al., 2007), and to support erosion modeling for other land uses, such as agriculture or mining. The design and techniques used to create the database and the modeling interface are readily repeatable for any area or country that has the necessary topography, climate, soil, and land cover datasets.

Operating room fires: a closed claims analysis.

PubMed

Mehta, Sonya P; Bhananker, Sanjay M; Posner, Karen L; Domino, Karen B

2013-05-01

To assess patterns of injury and liability associated with operating room (OR) fires, closed malpractice claims in the American Society of Anesthesiologists Closed Claims Database since 1985 were reviewed. All claims related to fires in the OR were compared with nonfire-related surgical anesthesia claims. An analysis of fire-related claims was performed to identify causative factors. There were 103 OR fire claims (1.9% of 5,297 surgical claims). Electrocautery was the ignition source in 90% of fire claims. OR fire claims more frequently involved older outpatients compared with other surgical anesthesia claims (P < 0.01). Payments to patients were more often made in fire claims (P < 0.01), but payment amounts were lower (median $120,166) compared to nonfire surgical claims (median $250,000, P < 0.01). Electrocautery-induced fires (n = 93) increased over time (P < 0.01) to 4.4% claims between 2000 and 2009. Most (85%) electrocautery fires occurred during head, neck, or upper chest procedures (high-fire-risk procedures). Oxygen served as the oxidizer in 95% of electrocautery-induced OR fires (84% with open delivery system). Most electrocautery-induced fires (n = 75, 81%) occurred during monitored anesthesia care. Oxygen was administered via an open delivery system in all high-risk procedures during monitored anesthesia care. In contrast, alcohol-containing prep solutions and volatile compounds were present in only 15% of OR fires during monitored anesthesia care. Electrocautery-induced fires during monitored anesthesia care were the most common cause of OR fires claims. Recognition of the fire triad (oxidizer, fuel, and ignition source), particularly the critical role of supplemental oxygen by an open delivery system during use of the electrocautery, is crucial to prevent OR fires. Continuing education and communication among OR personnel along with fire prevention protocols in high-fire-risk procedures may reduce the occurrence of OR fires.

Predicting sediment delivery from debris flows after wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyman, Petter; Smith, Hugh G.; Sherwin, Christopher B.; Langhans, Christoph; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Sheridan, Gary J.

2015-12-01

Debris flows are an important erosion process in wildfire-prone landscapes. Predicting their frequency and magnitude can therefore be critical for quantifying risk to infrastructure, people and water resources. However, the factors contributing to the frequency and magnitude of events remain poorly understood, particularly in regions outside western USA. Against this background, the objectives of this study were to i) quantify sediment yields from post-fire debris flows in southeast Australian highlands and ii) model the effects of landscape attributes on debris flow susceptibility. Sediment yields from post-fire debris flows (113-294 t ha- 1) are 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than annual background erosion rates from undisturbed forests. Debris flow volumes ranged from 539 to 33,040 m3 with hillslope contributions of 18-62%. The distribution of erosion and deposition above the fan were related to a stream power index, which could be used to model changes in yield along the drainage network. Debris flow susceptibility was quantified with a logistic regression and an inventory of 315 debris flow fans deposited in the first year after two large wildfires (total burned area = 2919 km2). The differenced normalised burn ratio (dNBR or burn severity), local slope, radiative index of dryness (AI) and rainfall intensity (from rainfall radar) were significant predictors in a susceptibility model, which produced excellent results in terms identifying channels that were eroded by debris flows (Area Under Curve, AUC = 0.91). Burn severity was the strongest predictor in the model (AUC = 0.87 when dNBR is used as single predictor) suggesting that fire regimes are an important control on sediment delivery from these forests. The analysis showed a positive effect of AI on debris flow probability in landscapes where differences in moisture regimes due to climate are associated with large variation in soil hydraulic properties. Overall, the results from this study based in the southeast Australian highlands provide a novel basis upon which to model sediment delivery from post-fire debris flows. The modelling approach has wider relevance to post-fire debris flow prediction both from risk management and landscape evolution perspectives.

Modeling fuel succession

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Brett; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Beck, Jen; van Wagtendonk, Kent A.

2009-01-01

Surface fuels data are of critical importance for supporting fire incident management, risk assessment, and fuel management planning, but the development of surface fuels data can be expensive and time consuming. The data development process is extensive, generally beginning with acquisition of remotely sensed spatial data such as aerial photography or satellite imagery (Keane and others 2001). The spatial vegetation data are then crosswalked to a set of fire behavior fuel models that describe the available fuels (the burnable portions of the vegetation) (Anderson 1982, Scott and Burgan 2005). Finally, spatial fuels data are used as input to tools such as FARSITE and FlamMap to model current and potential fire spread and behavior (Finney 1998, Finney 2006). The capture date of the remotely sensed data defines the period for which the vegetation, and, therefore, fuels, data are most accurate. The more time that passes after the capture date, the less accurate the data become due to vegetation growth and processes such as fire. Subsequently, the results of any fire simulation based on these data become less accurate as the data age. Because of the amount of labor and expense required to develop these data, keeping them updated may prove to be a challenge. In this article, we describe the Sierra Nevada Fuel Succession Model, a modeling tool that can quickly and easily update surface fuel models with a minimum of additional input data. Although it was developed for use by Yosemite, Sequoia, and Kings Canyon National Parks, it is applicable to much of the central and southern Sierra Nevada. Furthermore, the methods used to develop the model have national applicability.

Fire occurrence prediction in the Mediterranean: Application to Southern France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papakosta, Panagiota; Öster, Jan; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel

2013-04-01

The areas that extend in the Mediterranean basin have a long fire history. The climatic conditions of wet winters and long hot drying summers support seasonal fire events, mainly ignited by humans. Extended land fragmentation hinders fire spread, but seasonal winds (e.g. Mistral in South France or Meltemia in Greece) can drive fire events to become uncontrollable fires with severe impacts to humans and the environment [1]. Prediction models in these areas should incorporate both natural and anthropogenic factors. Several indices have been developed worldwide to express fire weather conditions. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is currently adapted by many countries in Europe due to the easily observable input weather parameters (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation) and the easy-to-implement algorithms of the Canadian formulation describing fuel moisture relations [2],[3]. Human influence can be expressed directly by human presence (e.g. population density) or indirectly by proxy indicators (e.g. street density [4], land cover type). The random nature of fire occurrences and the uncertainties associated with the influencing factors motivate probabilistic prediction models. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model of fire occurrence probability under natural and anthropogenic influence in Southern France and to compare it with earlier developed predictions in other Mediterranean areas [5]. Fire occurrence is modeled as a Poisson process. Two interpolation methods (Kriging and Inverse Distance Weighting) are used to interpolate daily weather observations from weather stations to a 1 km² spatial grid and their results are compared. Poisson regression estimates the parameters of the model and the resulting daily predictions are provided in terms of maps displaying fire occurrence rates. The model is applied to the regions Provence-Alpes-Côtes D'Azur und Languedoc-Roussillon in the South of France. Weather data are obtained from the German and French Weather Services (Deutscher Wetterdienst and Météo-France). Historical fire events are taken from Prométhée database. Time series 2000-2010 are used as learning data and data from 2011 is used as the validation data. The resulting model can support real-time fire risk estimation for improved allocation of firefighting resources and planning of other mitigation actions. [1] Keeley, J.E.; Bond, W.J.; Bradstock, R.A.; Pausas, J.G.; Rundel, P.W. (2012): Fire in Mediterranean ecosystems: ecology, evolution and management. Cambridge University Press, New York, USA, pp.515 [2] Lawson, B.D.; Armitage, O.B. (2008): Weather Guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. [3] Van Wagner, C.E.; Pickett, T.L. (1985): Equations and FORTRAN Program for the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Forestry Technical Report 33. Canadian Forestry Service, Government of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada [4] Syphard, A.D.; Radeloff, V.C.; Keuler, N.S.; Taylor, R.S.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Clayton, M.K. (2008): Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 17, pp.602-613 [5] Papakosta, P.; Klein, F.; König, S.; Straub, D. (2012): Linking spatio-temporal data to the Fire Weather Index to estimate the probability of wildfire in the Mediterranean. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol.14, EGU2012-12737, EGU General Assembly 2012

16 CFR § 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. § 1145.3 Section § 1145.3 Commercial...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

Risk Based Reliability Centered Maintenance of DOD Fire Protection Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

2.2.3 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis ( FMEA )............................ 2.2.4 Failure Mode Risk Characterization...Step 2 - System functions and functional failures definition Step 3 - Failure mode and effect analysis ( FMEA ) Step 4 - Failure mode risk...system). The Interface Location column identifies the location where the FMEA of the fire protection system began or stopped. For example, for the fire

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Risk and Cooperation: Managing Hazardous Fuel in Mixed Ownership Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, A. Paige; Charnley, Susan

2012-06-01

Managing natural processes at the landscape scale to promote forest health is important, especially in the case of wildfire, where the ability of a landowner to protect his or her individual parcel is constrained by conditions on neighboring ownerships. However, management at a landscape scale is also challenging because it requires cooperation on plans and actions that cross ownership boundaries. Cooperation depends on people's beliefs and norms about reciprocity and perceptions of the risks and benefits of interacting with others. Using logistic regression tests on mail survey data and qualitative analysis of interviews with landowners, we examined the relationship between perceived wildfire risk and cooperation in the management of hazardous fuel by nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Oregon. We found that NIPF owners who perceived a risk of wildfire to their properties, and perceived that conditions on nearby public forestlands contributed to this risk, were more likely to have cooperated with public agencies in the past to reduce fire risk than owners who did not perceive a risk of wildfire to their properties. Wildfire risk perception was not associated with past cooperation among NIPF owners. The greater social barriers to private-private cooperation than to private-public cooperation, and perceptions of more hazardous conditions on public compared with private forestlands may explain this difference. Owners expressed a strong willingness to cooperate with others in future cross-boundary efforts to reduce fire risk, however. We explore barriers to cooperative forest management across ownerships, and identify models of cooperation that hold potential for future collective action to reduce wildfire risk.

Risk and cooperation: managing hazardous fuel in mixed ownership landscapes.

PubMed

Fischer, A Paige; Charnley, Susan

2012-06-01

Managing natural processes at the landscape scale to promote forest health is important, especially in the case of wildfire, where the ability of a landowner to protect his or her individual parcel is constrained by conditions on neighboring ownerships. However, management at a landscape scale is also challenging because it requires cooperation on plans and actions that cross ownership boundaries. Cooperation depends on people's beliefs and norms about reciprocity and perceptions of the risks and benefits of interacting with others. Using logistic regression tests on mail survey data and qualitative analysis of interviews with landowners, we examined the relationship between perceived wildfire risk and cooperation in the management of hazardous fuel by nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Oregon. We found that NIPF owners who perceived a risk of wildfire to their properties, and perceived that conditions on nearby public forestlands contributed to this risk, were more likely to have cooperated with public agencies in the past to reduce fire risk than owners who did not perceive a risk of wildfire to their properties. Wildfire risk perception was not associated with past cooperation among NIPF owners. The greater social barriers to private-private cooperation than to private-public cooperation, and perceptions of more hazardous conditions on public compared with private forestlands may explain this difference. Owners expressed a strong willingness to cooperate with others in future cross-boundary efforts to reduce fire risk, however. We explore barriers to cooperative forest management across ownerships, and identify models of cooperation that hold potential for future collective action to reduce wildfire risk.

Integrating Land Cover Modeling and Adaptive Management to Conserve Endangered Species and Reduce Catastrophic Fire Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

2014-01-01

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources and then decision makers can use this to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision making, where science allows us to learn to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuels monitoring with decision making focused on dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy, but habitat trajectories suggest tradeoffs. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state and by ideas about fire behavior. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility for and cover modeling programs intended to inform decision making.

Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

2013-01-01

There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

Explosion and/or fire risk assessment methodology: a common approach, structured for underground coalmine environments / Metoda szacowania ryzyka wybuchu i pożarów: podejście ogólne, dostosowane do środowiska kopalni podziemnej

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioca, Ionel-Lucian; Moraru, Roland Iosif

2012-10-01

In order to meet statutory requirements concerning the workers health and safety, it is necessary for mine managers within Valea Jiului coal basin in Romania to address the potential for underground fires and explosions and their impact on the workforce and the mine ventilation systems. Highlighting the need for a unified and systematic approach of the specific risks, the authors are developing a general framework for fire/explosion risk assessment in gassy mines, based on the quantification of the likelihood of occurrence and gravity of the consequences of such undesired events and employing Root-Cause analysis method. It is emphasized that even a small fire should be regarded as being a major hazard from the point of view of explosion initiation, should a combustible atmosphere arise. The developed methodology, for the assessment of underground fire and explosion risks, is based on the known underground explosion hazards, fire engineering principles and fire test criteria for potentially combustible materials employed in mines.

A decision support system for managing forest fire casualties.

PubMed

Bonazountas, Marc; Kallidromitou, Despina; Kassomenos, Pavlos; Passas, Nikos

2007-09-01

Southern Europe is exposed to anthropogenic and natural forest fires. These result in loss of lives, goods and infrastructure, but also deteriorate the natural environment and degrade ecosystems. The early detection and combating of such catastrophes requires the use of a decision support system (DSS) for emergency management. The current literature reports on a series of efforts aimed to deliver DSSs for the management of the forest fires by utilising technologies like remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS), yet no integrated system exists. This manuscript presents the results of scientific research aiming to the development of a DSS for managing forest fires. The system provides a series of software tools for the assessment of the propagation and combating of forest fires based on Arc/Info, ArcView, Arc Spatial Analyst, Arc Avenue, and Visual C++ technologies. The system integrates GIS technologies under the same data environment and utilises a common user interface to produce an integrated computer system based on semi-automatic satellite image processing (fuel maps), socio-economic risk modelling and probabilistic models that would serve as a useful tool for forest fire prevention, planning and management. Its performance has been demonstrated via real time up-to-date accurate information on the position and evolution of the fire. The system can assist emergency assessment, management and combating of the incident. A site demonstration and validation has been accomplished for the island of Evoia, Greece, an area particularly vulnerable to forest fires due to its ecological characteristics and prevailing wind patterns.

EPRI/NRC-RES fire human reliability analysis guidelines.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Stuart R.; Cooper, Susan E.; Najafi, Bijan

2010-03-01

During the 1990s, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed methods for fire risk analysis to support its utility members in the preparation of responses to Generic Letter 88-20, Supplement 4, 'Individual Plant Examination - External Events' (IPEEE). This effort produced a Fire Risk Assessment methodology for operations at power that was used by the majority of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) in support of the IPEEE program and several NPPs overseas. Although these methods were acceptable for accomplishing the objectives of the IPEEE, EPRI and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recognized that they required upgrades to support currentmore » requirements for risk-informed, performance-based (RI/PB) applications. In 2001, EPRI and the USNRC's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) embarked on a cooperative project to improve the state-of-the-art in fire risk assessment to support a new risk-informed environment in fire protection. This project produced a consensus document, NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), entitled 'Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities' which addressed fire risk for at power operations. NUREG/CR-6850 developed high level guidance on the process for identification and inclusion of human failure events (HFEs) into the fire PRA (FPRA), and a methodology for assigning quantitative screening values to these HFEs. It outlined the initial considerations of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and related fire effects that may need to be addressed in developing best-estimate human error probabilities (HEPs). However, NUREG/CR-6850 did not describe a methodology to develop best-estimate HEPs given the PSFs and the fire-related effects. In 2007, EPRI and RES embarked on another cooperative project to develop explicit guidance for estimating HEPs for human failure events under fire generated conditions, building upon existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This document provides a methodology and guidance for conducting a fire HRA. This process includes identification and definition of post-fire human failure events, qualitative analysis, quantification, recovery, dependency, and uncertainty. This document provides three approaches to quantification: screening, scoping, and detailed HRA. Screening is based on the guidance in NUREG/CR-6850, with some additional guidance for scenarios with long time windows. Scoping is a new approach to quantification developed specifically to support the iterative nature of fire PRA quantification. Scoping is intended to provide less conservative HEPs than screening, but requires fewer resources than a detailed HRA analysis. For detailed HRA quantification, guidance has been developed on how to apply existing methods to assess post-fire fire HEPs.« less

A heuristic expert system for forest fire guidance in Greece.

PubMed

Iliadis, Lazaros S; Papastavrou, Anastasios K; Lefakis, Panagiotis D

2002-07-01

Forests and forestlands are common inheritance for all Greeks and a piece of the national wealth that must be handed over to the next generations in the best possible condition. After 1974, Greece faces a severe forest fire problem and forest fire forecasting is the process that will enable the Greek ministry of Agriculture to reduce the destruction. This paper describes the basic design principles of an Expert System that performs forest fire forecasting (for the following fire season) and classification of the prefectures of Greece into forest fire risk zones. The Expert system handles uncertainty and uses heuristics in order to produce scenarios based on the presence or absence of various qualitative factors. The initial research focused on the construction of a mathematical model which attempted to describe the annual number of forest fires and burnt area in Greece based on historical data. However this has proven to be impossible using regression analysis and time series. A closer analysis of the fire data revealed that two qualitative factors dramatically affect the number of forest fires and the hectares of burnt areas annually. The first is political stability and national elections and the other is drought cycles. Heuristics were constructed that use political stability and drought cycles, to provide forest fire guidance. Fuzzy logic was applied to produce a fuzzy expected interval for each prefecture of Greece. A fuzzy expected interval is a narrow interval of values that best describes the situation in the country or a part of the country for a certain time period. A successful classification of the prefectures of Greece in forest fire risk zones was done by the system, by comparing the fuzzy expected intervals to each other. The system was tested for the years 1994 and 1995. The testing has clearly shown that the system can predict accurately, the number of forest fires for each prefecture for the following year. The average accuracy was as high as 85.25% for 1995 and 80.89% for 1994. This makes the Expert System a very important tool for forest fire prevention planning.

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy: A vision for an innovative and integrated approach to managing the risks

Treesearch

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy Project Management Team

2006-01-01

The Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy (CWFS) provides a vision for a new, innovative, and integrated approach to wildland fire management in Canada. It was developed under the auspices of the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and seeks to balance the social, ecological, and economic aspects of wildland fire through a risk management framework that emphasizes hazard...

Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: Application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott

2015-01-01

We develop a novel risk assessment approach that integrates complementary, yet distinct, spatial modeling approaches currently used in wildfire risk assessment. Motivation for this work stems largely from limitations of existing stochastic wildfire simulation systems, which can generate pixel-based outputs of fire behavior as well as polygon-based outputs of simulated...

PREFER: a European service providing forest fire management support products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftychidis, George; Laneve, Giovanni; Ferrucci, Fabrizio; Sebastian Lopez, Ana; Lourenco, Louciano; Clandillon, Stephen; Tampellini, Lucia; Hirn, Barbara; Diagourtas, Dimitris; Leventakis, George

2015-06-01

PREFER is a Copernicus project of the EC-FP7 program which aims developing spatial information products that may support fire prevention and burned areas restoration decisions and establish a relevant web-based regional service for making these products available to fire management stakeholders. The service focuses to the Mediterranean region, where fire risk is high and damages from wildfires are quite important, and develop its products for pilot areas located in Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece. PREFER aims to allow fire managers to have access to online resources, which shall facilitate fire prevention measures, fire hazard and risk assessment, estimation of fire impact and damages caused by wildfire as well as support monitoring of post-fire regeneration and vegetation recovery. It makes use of a variety of products delivered by space borne sensors and develop seasonal and daily products using multi-payload, multi-scale and multi-temporal analysis of EO data. The PREFER Service portfolio consists of two main suite of products. The first refers to mapping products for supporting decisions concerning the Preparedness/Prevention Phase (ISP Service). The service delivers Fuel, Hazard and Fire risk maps for this purpose. Furthermore the PREFER portfolio includes Post-fire vegetation recovery, burn scar maps, damage severity and 3D fire damage assessment products in order to support relative assessments required in context of the Recovery/Reconstruction Phase (ISR Service) of fire management.

Wildfire Danger Potential in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Myoung, B.; Kim, S. H.; Fujioka, F. M.; Kim, J.

2015-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in California (CA) which is characterized by the semi-arid to arid climate and vegetation types. Highly variable winter precipitation and extended hot and dry warm season in the region challenge an effective strategic fire management. Climatologically, the fire season which is based on live fuel moisture (LFM) of generally below 80% in Los Angeles County spans 4 months from mid-July to mid-November, but it has lasted over 7 months in the past several years. This behavior is primarily due to the ongoing drought in CA during the last decade, which is responsible for frequent outbreaks of severe wildfires in the region. Despite their importance, scientific advances for the recent changes in wildfire risk and effective assessments of wildfire risk are lacking. In the present study, we show impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulations on an early start and then extended length of fire seasons. For example, the strong relationships of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with springtime temperature and precipitation in the SWUS that was recently revealed by our team members have led to an examination of the possible impact of NAO on wildfire danger in the spring. Our results show that the abnormally warm and dry spring conditions associated with positive NAO phases can cause an early start of a fire season and high fire risks throughout the summer and fall. For an effective fire danger assessment, we have tested the capability of satellite vegetation indices (VIs) in replicating in situ LFM of Southern CA chaparral ecosystems by 1) comparing seasonal/interannual characteristics of in-situ LFM with VIs and 2) developing an empirical model function of LFM. Unlike previous studies attempting a point-to-point comparison, we attempt to examine the LFM relationship with VIs averaged over different areal coverage with chamise-dominant grids (i.e., 0.5 km to 25 km radius circles). Lastly, we discuss implications of the results for fire danger assessment and prediction.

Water contamination risks associated with a combination of planned and unplanned fire in south eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, G. J.; Nyman, P.; Langhans, C.; Noske, P. J.; Lane, P. N. J.

2014-12-01

Planned burning reduces fuel loads in forests, potentially reducing the severity of subsequent wildfires. However planned burning also increases the risk of a significant water quality impact by maintaining a proportion of the catchment in a burnt condition conducive to generating high magnitude erosion events (eg. debris flows). Differences in the frequency and magnitude of planned and unplanned fire, combined with poorly understood relationships between fire severity and hydrologic impacts, means that predictions of the net water contamination risks associated with any particular fire regime are difficult to predict. This presentation synthesises results from 10 years of point, plot and catchment-scale post-fire hydrology and erosion studies in SE Australia to estimate the likely benifits and risks of planned burning scenarios from a drinking water supply perspective

Hydrologic Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Associated With the Increased Role of Fire on Western Landscapes, Great Basin, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J.; Pierson, F. B.; Robichaud, P. R.; Spaeth, K. E.; Hardegree, S. P.; Clark, P. E.; Moffet, C. A.; Al-Hamdan, O. Z.; Boll, J.

2010-12-01

Landscape-scale plant community transitions and altered fire regimes across Great Basin, USA, rangelands have increased the likelihood of post-fire flooding and erosion events. These hazards are particularly concerning for western urban centers along the rangeland urban-wildland interface where natural resources, property, and human life are at risk. Extensive conversion of 4-7 million hectares of Great Basin shrub-steppe to cheatgrass-dominated (Bromus tectorum) grasslands has increased the frequency and size of wildland fires within these ecosystems. Fire frequencies have increased by more than an order of magnitude and occur on 3-10 year intervals across much of the cheatgrass-dominated landscape. Extensive tree (Pinus spp. and Juniperus spp.) encroachment into wooded shrub-steppe has increased heavy fuel loads. Ladder fuels in these ecosystems promote rapidly spreading, high-intensity and severe ground-surface-crown fires. These altered fuel structures across much of the historical Great Basin shrub-steppe have initiated an upsurge in large rangeland wildfires and have increased the spatial and temporal vulnerability of these landscapes to amplified runoff and erosion. Resource and infrastructure damages, and loss of life have been reported due to flooding following recent large-scale burning of western rangelands and dry forests. We present a decade of post-fire rangeland hydrologic research that provides a foundation for conceptual modeling of the hydrologic impacts associated with an increased role of rangeland wildfires. We highlight advancements in predictive tools to address this large-scale phenomenon and discuss vital research voids requiring attention. Our geographic emphasis is the Great Basin Region, however, these concepts likely extend elsewhere given the increased role of fire in many geographic regions and across rangeland-to-forest ecotones in the western United States.

Exposure–response relationships for select cancer and non-cancer health outcomes in a cohort of US firefighters from San Francisco, Chicago and Philadelphia (1950–2009)

PubMed Central

Daniels, Robert D.; Bertke, Stephen; Dahm, Matthew M.; Yiin, James H.; Kubale, Travis L.; Hales, Thomas R.; Baris, Dalsu; Zahm, Shelia H.; Beaumont, James J.; Waters, Kathleen M.; Pinkerton, Lynne E.

2015-01-01

Objectives To examine exposure–response relationships between surrogates of firefighting exposure and select outcomes among previously studied US career firefighters. Methods Eight cancer and four non-cancer outcomes were examined using conditional logistic regression. Incidence density sampling was used to match each case to 200 controls on attained age. Days accrued in firefighting assignments (exposed-days), run totals (fire-runs) and run times (fire-hours) were used as exposure surrogates. HRs comparing 75th and 25th centiles of lagged cumulative exposures were calculated using loglinear, linear, log-quadratic, power and restricted cubic spline general relative risk models. Piecewise constant models were used to examine risk differences by time since exposure, age at exposure and calendar period. Results Among 19 309 male firefighters eligible for the study, there were 1333 cancer deaths and 2609 cancer incidence cases. Significant positive associations between fire-hours and lung cancer mortality and incidence were evident. A similar relation between leukaemia mortality and fire-runs was also found. The lung cancer associations were nearly linear in cumulative exposure, while the association with leukaemia mortality was attenuated at higher exposure levels and greater for recent exposures. Significant negative associations were evident for the exposure surrogates and colorectal and prostate cancers, suggesting a healthy worker survivor effect possibly enhanced by medical screening. Conclusions Lung cancer and leukaemia mortality risks were modestly increasing with firefighter exposures. These findings add to evidence of a causal association between firefighting and cancer. Nevertheless, small effects merit cautious interpretation. We plan to continue to follow the occurrence of disease and injury in this cohort. PMID:25673342

Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

2017-07-01

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Efficacy of a proactive health and safety risk management system in the fire service.

PubMed

Poplin, Gerald S; Griffin, Stephanie; Pollack Porter, Keshia; Mallett, Joshua; Hu, Chengcheng; Day-Nash, Virginia; Burgess, Jefferey L

2018-04-16

This study evaluated the efficacy of a fire department proactive risk management program aimed at reducing firefighter injuries and their associated costs. Injury data were collected for the intervention fire department and a contemporary control department. Workers' compensation claim frequency and costs were analyzed for the intervention fire department only. Total, exercise, patient transport, and fireground operations injury rates were calculated for both fire departments. There was a post-intervention average annual reduction in injuries (13%), workers' compensation injury claims (30%) and claims costs (21%). Median monthly injury rates comparing the post-intervention to the pre-intervention period did not show statistically significant changes in either the intervention or control fire department. Reduced workers' compensation claims and costs were observed following the risk management intervention, but changes in injury rates were not statistically significant.

Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Butsic, Van; Bar-Massada, Avi; Keeley, Jon E.; Tracey, Jeff A.; Fisher, Robert N.

2016-01-01

Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely generalize to any place where high species richness overlaps with hazardous wildland vegetation.

Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire–climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600–2015 CE

PubMed Central

Taylor, Alan H.; Trouet, Valerie; Skinner, Carl N.; Stephens, Scott

2016-01-01

Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire–climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600–2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring–based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire–climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation—following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)—reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire–climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire–climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California. PMID:27849589

ERMiT: Estimating Post-Fire Erosion in Probabilistic Terms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierson, F. B.; Robichaud, P. R.; Elliot, W. J.; Hall, D. E.; Moffet, C. A.

2006-12-01

Mitigating the impact of post-wildfire runoff and erosion on life, property, and natural resources have cost the United States government tens of millions of dollars over the past decade. The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) is a web-based application that estimates erosion in probabilistic terms on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands. Unlike most erosion prediction models, ERMiT does not provide `average annual erosion rates;' rather, it provides a distribution of erosion rates with the likelihood of their occurrence. ERMiT combines rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity, soil properties, and ground cover to estimate Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model input parameter values. Based on 20 to 40 individual WEPP runs, ERMiT produces a distribution of rain event erosion rates with a probability of occurrence for each of five post-fire years. Over the 5 years of modeled recovery, the occurrence probability of the less erodible soil parameters is increased and the occurrence probability of the more erodible soil parameters is decreased. In addition, the occurrence probabilities and the four spatial arrangements of burn severity (arrangements of overland flow elements (OFE's)), are shifted toward lower burn severity with each year of recovery. These yearly adjustments are based on field measurements made through post-fire recovery periods. ERMiT also provides rain event erosion rate distributions for hillslopes that have been treated with seeding, straw mulch, straw wattles and contour-felled log erosion barriers. Such output can help managers make erosion mitigation treatment decisions based on the probability of high sediment yields occurring, the value of resources at risk for damage, cost, and other management considerations.

Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach

Treesearch

Cassandra Johnson Gaither; N.C. Poudyal; S. Goodrick; J.M. Bowker; S. Malone; J. Gan

2011-01-01

The southeastern U.S. is one of the more wildland fire prone areas of the country and also contains some of the poorest or most socially vulnerable rural communities. Our project addresses wildland fire risk in this part of the U.S and its intersection with social vulnerability. We examine spatial association between high wildland fire prone areas which also rank high...

Cast Coil Transformer Fire Susceptibility and Reliability Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-04-01

transformers reduce risk to the user compared to liquid-filled units, eliminate environmental impacts, are more efficient than most transformer designs, and...filled units, eliminate environmental impacts, arc more efficient than most transformer designs, and add minimal risk to the facility in a fire situation...add minimal risk to the facility in a fire situation. Cast coil transformers have a long record of operation and have proven to be reliable and

Smoke Sense: Citizen Science Study on Health Risk and Health Risk Communication During Wildfire Smoke Episodes

EPA Science Inventory

Why do we need to communicate smoke impacts on health? Indicence and severity of large fires are increasing. As emissions from the Wildland fires produce air pollution that adversely impacts people's health, incidence and severity of large fires are increasing. As emissions fr...

Quantifying bushfire penetration into urban areas in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Keping; McAneney, John

2004-06-01

The extent and trajectory of bushfire penetration at the bushland-urban interface are quantified using data from major historical fires in Australia. We find that the maximum distance at which homes are destroyed is typically less than 700 m. The probability of home destruction emerges as a simple linear and decreasing function of distance from the bushland-urban boundary but with a variable slope that presumably depends upon fire regime and human intervention. The collective data suggest that the probability of home destruction at the forest edge is around 60%. Spatial patterns of destroyed homes display significant neighbourhood clustering. Our results provide revealing spatial evidence for estimating fire risk to properties and suggest an ember-attack model.

Using RAQMS Chemical Transport Model, Aircraft In-situ and Satellite Data to Verify Ground-based Biomass Burning Emissions from the Extreme Fire Event in Boreal Alaska 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Pierce, R. B.; Al-Saadi, J. A.; Alvarado, E.; Sandberg, D. V.; Ottmar, R. D.; Kittaka, C.; McMillian, W. W.; Sachse, G. W.; Warner, J. X.; Szykman, J. J.

2006-12-01

Current climate change scenarios are predicted to result in increased biomass burning, particularly in boreal regions. Biomass burning events feedback to the climate system by altering albedo (affecting the energy balance) and by direct and indirect fire emissions. Additionally, fire emissions influence air quality and human health downwind of burning. Biomass burning emission estimates are difficult to quantify in near-real-time and accurate estimates are useful for large-scale chemical transport models, which could be used to warn the public of potential health risks and for climate modeling. In this talk, we describe a methodology to quantify emissions, validate those emission estimates, transport the emissions and verify the resultant CO plume 100's of kilometers from the fire events using aircraft in-situ and satellite data. First, we developed carbon consumption estimates that are specifically designed for near-real-time use in conjunction with satellite-derived fire data for regional- to global-chemical transport models. Large-scale carbon consumption estimates are derived for 10 ecozones across North America and each zone contains 3 classes of severity. The estimates range is from a low severity 3.11 t C ha-1 estimate from the Western Taiga Shield to a high severity 59.83 t C ha-1 estimate from the Boreal Cordillera. These estimates are validated using extensive supplementary ground-based Alaskan data. Then, the RAQMS chemical transport model ingests these data and transports CO from the Alaskan 2004 fires across North America, where results are compared with in-situ flight CO data measured during INTEX-A and satellite-based CO data (AIRS and MOPITT). Ground-based CO is 6 to 14 times greater than the typically modeled fire climatology. RAQMS often overestimates CO in the biomass plumes in comparison to satellite- derived CO data and we suspect this may be due to the satellite instruments low sensitivity to planetary boundary layer CO, which is prevalent in the near field plumes, and also the assumption of high-severity fires throughout the burning season. RAQMS underestimates biomass CO in comparison to in-situ CO data (146 out of 148 ascents and descents), and we suspect this may be due to RAQMS difficulty in defining narrow fire plumes due to the 1.4° x 1.4° resolution.

Social and Biophysical Predictors of Public Perceptions of Extreme Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, T. E.; Kooistra, C. M.; Paveglio, T.; Gress, S.; Smith, A. M.

2013-12-01

To date, what constitutes an 'extreme' fire has been approached separately by biophysical and social scientists. Research on the biophysical characteristics of fires has identified potential dimensions of extremity, including fire size and vegetation mortality. On the social side, factors such as the degree of immediate impact to one's life and property or the extent of social disruption in the community contribute to a perception of extremity. However, some biophysical characteristics may also contribute to perceptions of extremity, including number of simultaneous ignitions, rapidity of fire spread, atypical fire behavior, and intensity of smoke. Perceptions of these impacts can vary within and across communities, but no studies to date have investigated such perceptions in a comprehensive way. In this study, we address the question, to what extent is the magnitude of impact of fires on WUI residents' well-being explained by measurable biophysical characteristics of the fire and subjective evaluations of the personal and community-level impacts of the fire? We bring together diverse strands of psychological theory, including landscape perception, mental models, risk perception, and community studies. The majority of social science research on fires has been in the form of qualitative case studies, and our study is methodologically unique by using a nested design (hierarchical modeling) to enable generalizable conclusions across a wide range of fires and human communities. We identified fires that burned in 2011 or 2012 in the northern Rocky Mountain region that were at least 1,000 acres and that intersected (within 15 km) urban clusters or identified Census places. For fires where an adequately large number of households was located in proximity to the fire, we drew random samples of approximately 150 individuals for each fire. We used a hybrid internet (Qualtrics) and mail survey, following the Dillman method, to measure individual perceptions. We developed two composite dependent variables: (1) subjective perceptions of the atypicality of the fire; and (2) perceptions of the fire's impact to individual and community well-being. The impact measures were adapted from the hazards and disasters literature and used a multi-item measure of emotional response during and immediately after the fire. Independent variables included both biophysical characteristics of each fire (such as size, duration, and burn severity), obtained from remotely sensed imagery, and perceptual variables measured in the survey. All measures were pilot tested for adequate psychometric properties using a sample of 150 individuals from an on-line panel who had been affected by a wildfire within the past two years. Factor analysis techniques will be used to reduce the data to latent constructs for use in regression modeling. Hierarchical linear modeling will be used to identify factors predicting the impact of fires on individuals (level 1) and whether those factors differ by fire (level 2). Our study provides a unique interdisciplinary perspective on extreme disturbance events, and findings will help land managers and community leaders anticipate how individuals may respond to future fires, as well as how to ameliorate the negative impacts of those fires.

Underground Coal-Fires in Xinjiang, China: A Continued Effort in Applying Geophysics to Solve a Local Problem and to Mitigate a Global Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuttke, M. W.; Halisch, M.; Tanner, D. C.; Cai, Z. Y.; Zeng, Q.; Wang, C.

2012-04-01

Spontaneous uncontrolled coal seam fires are a well known phenomenon that causes severe environmental problems and severe impact on natural coal reserves. Coal fires are a worldwide phenomenon, but in particular in Xinjiang, that covers 17.3 % of Chinas area and hosts approx 42 % of its coal resources. In Xinjiang since more than 50 years a rigorous strategy for fire fighting on local and regional scale is persued. The Xinjiang Coalfield Fire Fighting Bureau (FFB) has developed technologies and methods to deal with any known fire. Many fires have been extinguished already, but the problem is still there if not even growing. This problem is not only a problem for China due to the loss of valuable energy resources, but it is also a worldwide threat because of the generation of substantial amounts of greenhouse gases. Through the FFB, China is struggling to overcome this, but the activities could be much enhanced by the continuation of the already successful conjoint operations. The last ten years have seen two successful cooperative projects between China and Germany on the field of coal-fire fighting, namely the German Technical Cooperation Project on Coal Fire in Xinjiang and the Sino-German Coal Fire Research Initiative funded by the corresponding ministeries of both countries. A persistent task in the fire fighting is the identification and supervision of areas with higher risks for the ignition of coal fires, the exploration of already ignited fire zones to extinguish the fires and the monitoring of extinguished fires to detect as early as possible process that may foster re-ignition. This can be achieved by modeling both the structures and the processes that are involved. This has also been a promising part of the past cooperation projects, yet to be transformed into a standard application of fire fighting procedures. In this contribution we describe the plans for a new conjoint project between China and Germany where on the basis of field investigations and laboratory measurements realistic dynamical models of fire-zones are constructed to increase the understanding of particular coal-fires, to interpret the surface signatures of the coal-fire in terms of location and propagation and to estimate the output of hazardous exhaust products to evaluate the economic benefit of fire extinction.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tom Elicson; Bentley Harwood; Jim Bouchard

Over a 12 month period, a fire PRA was developed for a DOE facility using the NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC fire PRA methodology. The fire PRA modeling included calculation of fire severity factors (SFs) and fire non-suppression probabilities (PNS) for each safe shutdown (SSD) component considered in the fire PRA model. The SFs were developed by performing detailed fire modeling through a combination of CFAST fire zone model calculations and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). Component damage times and automatic fire suppression system actuation times calculated in the CFAST LHS analyses were then input to a time-dependent model of fire non-suppression probability. Themore » fire non-suppression probability model is based on the modeling approach outlined in NUREG/CR-6850 and is supplemented with plant specific data. This paper presents the methodology used in the DOE facility fire PRA for modeling fire-induced SSD component failures and includes discussions of modeling techniques for: • Development of time-dependent fire heat release rate profiles (required as input to CFAST), • Calculation of fire severity factors based on CFAST detailed fire modeling, and • Calculation of fire non-suppression probabilities.« less

A systematic conservation planning approach to fire risk management in Natura 2000 sites.

PubMed

Foresta, Massimiliano; Carranza, Maria Laura; Garfì, Vittorio; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Marchetti, Marco; Loy, Anna

2016-10-01

A primary challenge in conservation biology is to preserve the most representative biodiversity while simultaneously optimizing the efforts associated with conservation. In Europe, the implementation of the Natura 2000 network requires protocols to recognize and map threats to biodiversity and to identify specific mitigation actions. We propose a systematic conservation planning approach to optimize management actions against specific threats based on two fundamental parameters: biodiversity values and threat pressure. We used the conservation planning software Marxan to optimize a fire management plan in a Natura 2000 coastal network in southern Italy. We address three primary questions: i) Which areas are at high fire risk? ii) Which areas are the most valuable for threatened biodiversity? iii) Which areas should receive priority risk-mitigation actions for the optimal effect?, iv) which fire-prevention actions are feasible in the management areas?. The biodiversity values for the Natura 2000 spatial units were derived from the distribution maps of 18 habitats and 89 vertebrate species of concern in Europe (Habitat Directive 92/43/EEC). The threat pressure map, defined as fire probability, was obtained from digital layers of fire risk and of fire frequency. Marxan settings were defined as follows: a) planning units of 40 × 40 m, b) conservation features defined as all habitats and vertebrate species of European concern occurring in the study area, c) conservation targets defined according with fire sensitivity and extinction risk of conservation features, and d) costs determined as the complement of fire probabilities. We identified 23 management areas in which to concentrate efforts for the optimal reduction of fire-induced effects. Because traditional fire prevention is not feasible for most of policy habitats included in the management areas, alternative prevention practices were identified that allows the conservation of the vegetation structure. The proposed approach has potential applications for multiple landscapes, threats and spatial scales and could be extended to other valuable natural areas, including protected areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating the association between weather conditions, calendar events and socio-economic patterns with trends in fire incidence: an Australian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, Jonathan; Higgs, Gary; Rohde, David; Chhetri, Prem

2011-06-01

Fires in urban areas can cause significant economic, physical and psychological damage. Despite this, there has been a comparative lack of research into the spatial and temporal analysis of fire incidence in urban contexts. In this paper, we redress this gap through an exploration of the association of fire incidence to weather, calendar events and socio-economic characteristics in South-East Queensland, Australia using innovative technique termed the quad plot. Analysing trends in five fire incident types, including malicious false alarms (hoax calls), residential buildings, secondary (outdoor), vehicle and suspicious fires, results suggest that risk associated with all is greatly increased during school holidays and during long weekends. For all fire types the lowest risk of incidence was found to occur between one and six a.m. It was also found that there was a higher fire incidence in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods and there was some evidence to suggest that there may be a compounding impact of high temperatures in such areas. We suggest that these findings may be used to guide the operations of fire services through spatial and temporal targeting to better utilise finite resources, help mitigate risk and reduce casualties.

Soil water repellency and ground cover effects on infiltration in response to prescribed burning of steeply-sloped sagebrush hillslopes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rangeland managers and scientists are in need of predictive tools to accurately simulate post-fire hydrologic responses and provide hydrologic risk assessment. Rangeland hydrologic modeling has advanced in recent years; however, model advancements have largely been associated with data from gently ...

ArcFuels: an ArcMap toolbar for fuel treatment planning and wildfire risk assessment

Treesearch

Nicole M. Vaillant; Alan A. Ager

2014-01-01

Fire behavior modeling and geospatial analysis can provide tremendous insight to land managers in defining both the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments in the context of land management goals and public expectations. ArcFuels is a streamlined fuel management planning and wildfire risk assessment system that creates a trans-scale (stand to large landscape...

Alcohol skin preparation causes surgical fires

PubMed Central

Rocos, B; Donaldson, LJ

2012-01-01

INTRODUCTION Surgical fires are a rare but serious preventable safety risk in modern hospitals. Data from the US show that up to 650 surgical fires occur each year, with up to 5% causing death or serious harm. This study used the National Reporting and Learning Service (NRLS) database at the National Patient Safety Agency to explore whether spirit-based surgical skin preparation fluid contributes to the cause of surgical fires. METHODS The NRLS database was interrogated for all incidents of surgical fires reported between 1 March 2004 and 1 March 2011. Each report was scrutinised manually to discover the cause of the fire. RESULTS Thirteen surgical fires were reported during the study period. Of these, 11 were found to be directly related to spirit-based surgical skin preparation or preparation soaked swabs and drapes. CONCLUSIONS Despite manufacturer's instructions and warnings, surgical fires continue to occur. Guidance published in the UK and US states that spirit-based skin preparation solutions should continue to be used but sets out some precautions. It may be that fire risk should be included in pre-surgical World Health Organization checklists or in the surgical training curriculum. Surgical staff should be aware of the risk that spirit-based skin preparation fluids pose and should take action to minimise the chance of fire occurring. PMID:22391366

Alcohol skin preparation causes surgical fires.

PubMed

Rocos, B; Donaldson, L J

2012-03-01

Surgical fires are a rare but serious preventable safety risk in modern hospitals. Data from the US show that up to 650 surgical fires occur each year, with up to 5% causing death or serious harm. This study used the National Reporting and Learning Service (NRLS) database at the National Patient Safety Agency to explore whether spirit-based surgical skin preparation fluid contributes to the cause of surgical fires. The NRLS database was interrogated for all incidents of surgical fires reported between 1 March 2004 and 1 March 2011. Each report was scrutinised manually to discover the cause of the fire. Thirteen surgical fires were reported during the study period. Of these, 11 were found to be directly related to spirit-based surgical skin preparation or preparation soaked swabs and drapes. Despite manufacturer's instructions and warnings, surgical fires continue to occur. Guidance published in the UK and US states that spirit-based skin preparation solutions should continue to be used but sets out some precautions. It may be that fire risk should be included in pre-surgical World Health Organization checklists or in the surgical training curriculum. Surgical staff should be aware of the risk that spirit-based skin preparation fluids pose and should take action to minimise the chance of fire occurring.

78 FR 45573 - Compensatory and Alternative Regulatory Measures for Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-29

... Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN-FIRE) AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Notice of... Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN-FIRE), Draft Report for Comment.'' DATES: Comments on this... CONTACT: Felix Gonzalez, Fire Research Branch, Division of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory...

Landscape Scale Influences of Forest Area and Housing Density on House Loss in the 2009 Victorian Bushfires

PubMed Central

Price, Owen; Bradstock, Ross

2013-01-01

Previous investigations into the factors associated with house loss in wildfires have focused on the house construction and its immediate environment (e.g. gardens). Here, we examine how nearby native forest and other houses can influence house loss. Specifically, we used a sample of 3500 houses affected by the Victorian bushfires of February 7th 2009 to explore how the amount of forest, proportion of forest burned by crown fire and the number of nearby houses affected house loss and how far from the house this influence was exerted. These fires were the most destructive in Australian history and so represent the extreme of fire risk. Using generalized linear modeling we found that the probability of house loss increased with forest extent and the proportion burnt by crown fire and this relationship was strongest for forest measured 1 km from the houses. Houses were more likely to be destroyed if there were other houses within 50 m and if they were on a slope. A model containing these variables predicted house loss with 72% accuracy. Our findings have three important implications: i) management to change the occurrence of crown fire will be effective in reducing house loss; ii) this management may be required up to 1 km away from houses in some situations (a much larger zone than is currently used); iii) high density of houses may increase risk of loss. Given the potentially large width of this management zone and the hazard from nearby houses, it may be more sensible to concentrate on modification of buildings to reduce their vulnerability. PMID:24009753

Nonfatal residential fire-related injuries treated in emergency departments--United States, 2001.

PubMed

2003-09-26

During 2000, the most recent year for which national mortality data are available, 3,907 persons died in the United States from fire-related injuries; residential fires accounted for 2,955 (76%) of these deaths. The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) reported that approximately 396,500 residential fires occurred in 2001. Injuries from residential fires are preventable by improving awareness of the common causes of fires and by using simple interventions (e.g., properly maintained smoke alarms and fire escape plans). Surveillance of fire-related injuries can aid prevention by increasing the understanding of these injuries and by identifying at-risk populations to target for interventions and education. To characterize nonfatal residential fire-related injuries treated in U.S. hospital emergency departments (EDs) during 2001, CDC analyzed data from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Program (NEISS-AIP). This report summarizes the results of that analysis, which indicate that, in 2001, an estimated 25,717 nonfatal residential fire-related injuries were treated in U.S. hospital EDs. Fire prevention and safety interventions and education should target at-risk populations for fire-related injuries.

The Pictorial Fire Stroop: A Measure of Processing Bias for Fire-Related Stimuli

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallagher-Duffy, Joanne; MacKay, Sherri; Duffy, Jim; Sullivan-Thomas, Meara; Peterson-Badali, Michele

2009-01-01

Fire interest is a risk factor for firesetting. This study tested whether a fire-specific emotional Stroop task can effectively measure an information-processing bias for fire-related stimuli. Clinic-referred and nonreferred adolescents (aged 13-16 years) completed a pictorial "Fire Stroop," as well as a self-report fire interest questionnaire and…

Effects of fire on major forest ecosystem processes: an overview.

PubMed

Chen, Zhong

2006-09-01

Fire and fire ecology are among the best-studied topics in contemporary ecosystem ecology. The large body of existing literature on fire and fire ecology indicates an urgent need to synthesize the information on the pattern of fire effects on ecosystem composition, structure, and functions for application in fire and ecosystem management. Understanding fire effects and underlying principles are critical to reduce the risk of uncharacteristic wildfires and for proper use of fire as an effective management tool toward management goals. This overview is a synthesis of current knowledge on major effects of fire on fire-prone ecosystems, particularly those in the boreal and temperate regions of the North America. Four closely related ecosystem processes in vegetation dynamics, nutrient cycling, soil and belowground process and water relations were discussed with emphases on fire as the driving force. Clearly, fire can shape ecosystem composition, structure and functions by selecting fire adapted species and removing other susceptible species, releasing nutrients from the biomass and improving nutrient cycling, affecting soil properties through changing soil microbial activities and water relations, and creating heterogeneous mosaics, which in turn, can further influence fire behavior and ecological processes. Fire as a destructive force can rapidly consume large amount of biomass and cause negative impacts such as post-fire soil erosion and water runoff, and air pollution; however, as a constructive force fire is also responsible for maintaining the health and perpetuity of certain fire-dependent ecosystems. Considering the unique ecological roles of fire in mediating and regulating ecosystems, fire should be incorporated as an integral component of ecosystems and management. However, the effects of fire on an ecosystem depend on the fire regime, vegetation type, climate, physical environments, and the scale of time and space of assessment. More ecosystem-specific studies are needed in future, especially those focusing on temporal and spatial variations of fire effects through long-term experimental monitoring and modeling.

Risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns during extreme cold weather.

PubMed

Ayoub, Aimina; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie

2017-10-01

Environmental factors are important predictors of fires, but no study has examined the association between outdoor temperature and fire-related burn injuries. We sought to investigate the relationship between extremely cold outdoor temperatures and the risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. We carried out a time-stratified case-crossover study of 2470 patients hospitalized for fire-related burn injuries during cold months between 1989 and 2014 in Quebec, Canada. The main exposure was the minimum outdoor temperature on the day of and the day before the burn. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between minimum temperature and fire-related burns, and assessed how associations varied across sex and age. Exposure to extreme cold temperature was associated with a significantly higher risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. Compared with 0°C, exposure to a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.22-1.87) for hospitalization for fire-related burns. The associations were somewhat stronger for women, youth, and the elderly. Compared with 0°C, a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR for fire-related burn hospitalization of 1.65 for women (95% CI 1.13-2.40), 1.60 for age < 25 years (95% CI 1.02-2.52), and 1.73 for age ≥ 65 years (95% CI 1.08-2.77). Extremely cold outdoor temperature is a risk factor for fire-related burns. Measures to prevent fires should be implemented prior to the winter season, and enhanced during extreme cold. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

First Approximations of Prescribed Fire Risks Relative to Other Management Techniques Used on Private Lands.

PubMed

Twidwell, Dirac; Wonkka, Carissa L; Sindelar, Michael T; Weir, John R

2015-01-01

Fire is widely recognized as a critical ecological and evolutionary driver that needs to be at the forefront of land management actions if conservation targets are to be met. However, the prevailing view is that prescribed fire is riskier than other land management techniques. Perceived risks associated with the application of fire limits its use and reduces agency support for prescribed burning in the private sector. As a result, considerably less cost-share support is given for prescribed fire compared to mechanical techniques. This study tests the general perception that fire is a riskier technique relative to other land management options. Due to the lack of data available to directly test this notion, we use a combination of approaches including 1) a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for techniques employed in land management, 2) a comparison of fatalities resulting from wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3) an exploration of causal factors responsible for wildland fire-related fatalities. This approach establishes a first approximation of the relative risk of fatality to private citizens using prescribed fire compared to other management techniques that are readily used in ecosystem management. Our data do not support using risks of landowner fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as mechanical (machine-related) equipment, over prescribed fire. Vehicles and heavy machinery are consistently leading reasons for fatalities within occupations selected as proxies for management techniques employed by ranchers and agricultural producers, and also constitute a large proportion of fatalities among firefighters. Our study provides the foundation for agencies to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for prescribed burning on private lands.

First Approximations of Prescribed Fire Risks Relative to Other Management Techniques Used on Private Lands

PubMed Central

Twidwell, Dirac; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Sindelar, Michael T.; Weir, John R.

2015-01-01

Fire is widely recognized as a critical ecological and evolutionary driver that needs to be at the forefront of land management actions if conservation targets are to be met. However, the prevailing view is that prescribed fire is riskier than other land management techniques. Perceived risks associated with the application of fire limits its use and reduces agency support for prescribed burning in the private sector. As a result, considerably less cost-share support is given for prescribed fire compared to mechanical techniques. This study tests the general perception that fire is a riskier technique relative to other land management options. Due to the lack of data available to directly test this notion, we use a combination of approaches including 1) a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for techniques employed in land management, 2) a comparison of fatalities resulting from wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3) an exploration of causal factors responsible for wildland fire-related fatalities. This approach establishes a first approximation of the relative risk of fatality to private citizens using prescribed fire compared to other management techniques that are readily used in ecosystem management. Our data do not support using risks of landowner fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as mechanical (machine-related) equipment, over prescribed fire. Vehicles and heavy machinery are consistently leading reasons for fatalities within occupations selected as proxies for management techniques employed by ranchers and agricultural producers, and also constitute a large proportion of fatalities among firefighters. Our study provides the foundation for agencies to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for prescribed burning on private lands. PMID:26465329

Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance

PubMed Central

Ager, Alan A.; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Barros, Ana M. G.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

2017-01-01

We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. PMID:28257416

Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Evers, Cody R; Day, Michelle A; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Barros, Ana M G; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

2017-01-01

We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments.

AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalabokidis, K.; Ager, A.; Finney, M.; Athanasis, N.; Palaiologou, P.; Vasilakos, C.

2015-10-01

A Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) was developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing access to information that is essential for wildfire management. Databases were created with spatial and non-spatial data to support key system functionalities. Updated land use/land cover maps were produced by combining field inventory data with high resolution multispectral satellite images (RapidEye) to be used as inputs in fire propagation modeling with the Minimum Travel Time algorithm. End users provide a minimum number of inputs such as fire duration, ignition point and weather information to conduct a fire simulation. AEGIS offers three types of simulations; i.e. single-fire propagations, conditional burn probabilities and at the landscape-level, similar to the FlamMap fire behavior modeling software. Artificial neural networks (ANN) were utilized for wildfire ignition risk assessment based on various parameters, training methods, activation functions, pre-processing methods and network structures. The combination of ANNs and expected burned area maps produced an integrated output map for fire danger prediction. The system also incorporates weather measurements from remote automatic weather stations and weather forecast maps. The structure of the algorithms relies on parallel processing techniques (i.e. High Performance Computing and Cloud Computing) that ensure computational power and speed. All AEGIS functionalities are accessible to authorized end users through a web-based graphical user interface. An innovative mobile application, AEGIS App, acts as a complementary tool to the web-based version of the system.

Distribution and landscape controls of organic layer thickness and carbon within the Alaskan Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pastick, Neal J.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Rose, Joshua R.; Johnson, Kristofer D.; Ji, Lei

2014-01-01

Understanding of the organic layer thickness (OLT) and organic layer carbon (OLC) stocks in subarctic ecosystems is critical due to their importance in the global carbon cycle. Moreover, post-fire OLT provides an indicator of long-term successional trajectories and permafrost susceptibility to thaw. To these ends, we 1) mapped OLT and associated uncertainty at 30 m resolution in the Yukon River Basin (YRB), Alaska, employing decision tree models linking remotely sensed imagery with field and ancillary data, 2) converted OLT to OLC using a non-linear regression, 3) evaluate landscape controls on OLT and OLC, and 4) quantified the post-fire recovery of OLT and OLC. Areas of shallow (2 = 0.68; OLC: R2 = 0.66), where an average of 16 cm OLT and 5.3 kg/m2 OLC were consumed by fires. Strong predictors of OLT included climate, topography, near-surface permafrost distributions, soil wetness, and spectral information. Our modeling approach enabled us to produce regional maps of OLT and OLC, which will be useful in understanding risks and feedbacks associated with fires and climate feedbacks.

The effect of intraoral suction on oxygen-enriched surgical environments: a mechanism for reducing the risk of surgical fires.

PubMed

VanCleave, Andrea M; Jones, James E; McGlothlin, James D; Saxen, Mark A; Sanders, Brian J; Vinson, LaQuia A

2014-01-01

In this study, a mechanical model was applied in order to replicate potential surgical fire conditions in an oxygen-enriched environment with and without high-volume suction typical for dental surgical applications. During 41 trials, 3 combustion events were measured: an audible pop, a visible flash of light, and full ignition. In at least 11 of 21 trials without suction, all 3 conditions were observed, sometimes with an extent of fire that required early termination of the experimental trial. By contrast, in 18 of 20 with-suction trials, ignition did not occur at all, and in the 2 cases where ignition did occur, the fire was qualitatively a much smaller, candle-like flame. Statistically comparing these 3 combustion events in the no-suction versus with-suction trials, ignition (P = .0005), audible pop (P = .0211), and flash (P = .0092) were all significantly more likely in the no-suction condition. These results suggest a possible significant and new element to be added to existing surgical fire safety protocols toward making surgical fires the "never-events" they should be.

Health and air quality benefits of policies to reduce coal-fired power plant emissions: a case study in North Carolina.

PubMed

Li, Ya-Ru; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

2014-09-02

We analyzed sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions and fine particulate sulfate (PM2.5 sulfate) concentrations in the southeastern United States during 2002-2012, in order to evaluate the health impacts in North Carolina (NC) of the NC Clean Smokestacks Act of 2002. This state law required progressive reductions (beyond those mandated by federal rules) in pollutant emissions from NC's coal-fired power plants. Although coal-fired power plants remain NC's leading SO2 source, a trend analysis shows significant declines in SO2 emissions (-20.3%/year) and PM2.5 sulfate concentrations (-8.7%/year) since passage of the act. Emissions reductions were significantly greater in NC than in neighboring states, and emissions and PM2.5 sulfate concentration reductions were highest in NC's piedmont region, where 9 of the state's 14 major coal-fired power plants are located. Our risk model estimates that these air quality improvements decreased the risk of premature death attributable to PM2.5 sulfate in NC by about 63%, resulting in an estimated 1700 (95% CI: 1500, 1800) deaths prevented in 2012. These findings lend support to recent studies predicting that implementing the proposed federal Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (recently upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court) could substantially decrease U.S. premature deaths attributable to coal-fired power plant emissions.

An Integrated Model for Identifying Linkages Between the Management of Fuel Treatments, Fire and Ecosystem Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, R. R.; Anderson, S.; Moritz, M.; Plantinga, A.; Tague, C.

2015-12-01

Vegetation fuel treatments (e.g. thinning, prescribed burning) are a frequent tool for managing fire-prone landscapes. However, predicting how fuel treatments may affect future wildfire risk and associated ecosystem services, such as forest water availability and streamflow, remains a challenge. This challenge is in part due to the large range of conditions under which fuel treatments may be implemented, as response is likely to vary with species type, rates of vegetation regrowth, meteorological conditions and physiographic properties of the treated site. It is also due to insufficient understanding of how social factors such as political pressure, public demands and economic constraints affect fuel management decisions. To examine the feedbacks between ecological and social dimensions of fuel treatments, we present an integrated model that links a biophysical model that simulates vegetation and hydrology (RHESSys), a fire spread model (WMFire) and an empirical fuel treatment model that accounts for agency decision-making. We use this model to investigate how management decisions affect landscape fuel loads, which in turn affect fire severity and ecosystem services, which feedback to management decisions on fuel treatments. We hypothesize that this latter effect will be driven by salience theory, which predicts that fuel treatments are more likely to occur following major wildfire events. The integrated model provides a flexible framework for answering novel questions about fuel treatments that span social and ecological domains, areas that have previously been treated separately.

Reducing Community Vulnerability to Wildland Fires in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.

2010-12-01

In the US fires are not treated like other hazards such as earthquakes but rather as preventable through landscape fuel treatments and aggressive fire suppression. In southern California extreme fire weather has made it impossible to control all fires and thus loss of homes and lives is a constant threat to communities. There is growing evidence that indicate we are not likely to ever eliminate fires on these landscapes. Thus, it is time to reframe the fire problem and think of fires like we do with other natural hazards such as earthquakes. We do not attempt to stop earthquakes, rather the primary emphasis is on altering human infrastructure in ways that minimize community vulnerability. In other words we need to change our approach from risk elimination to risk management. This approach means we accept that we cannot eliminate fires but rather learn to live with fire by communities becoming more fire adapted. We potentially can make great strides in reducing community vulnerability by finding those factors with high impacts and are sensitive to changes in management. Presently, decision makers have relatively little guidance about which of these is likely to have the greatest impact. Future reductions in fire risk to communities requires we address both wildland and urban elements that contribute to destructive losses. Damage risk or D is determined by: D = f (I, S, E, G, H) where I = the probability of a fire starting in the landscape S = the probability of the fire reaching a size sufficient to reach the urban environment E = probability of it encroaching into the urban environment G = probability of fire propagating within the built environment H = probability of a fire, once within the built environment, resulting in the destruction of a building. In southern California, reducing I through more strategic fire prevention has potential for reducing fire risk. There are many ignition sources that could be reduced, such as replacing power line ignitions with underground lines, strategically employing arson patrols during Santa Ana wind events, enforcing regulations on power equipment use in wildland areas, k-rail barriers along roads to reduce fire spread into wildland areas etc. S, or the probability of fire reaching urban environments has historically been the primary focus of state and federal fire management activities. There is a need for greater focus on understanding the most strategic application of wildland fuel treatments. E, the probability of fire encroaching into the urban environment, has largely been addressed in the past by attention to wildland-urban interface (WUI) fuel treatments. The one factor that has perhaps the greatest potential for impacting E are patterns of urban growth, both in strategic placement and spatial patterning within communities, and this is an area where alternative future growth scenarios could have huge impacts on fire outcomes. G, the chance of fire propagating within the urban environment is a function of urban fuels, which include both home construction and landscaping. This area has the potential for effecting large changes in fire losses dependent upon future regulations on plantings in the urban environment.

Assessing wildfire exposure in the Wildland-Urban Interface area of the mountains of central Argentina.

PubMed

Argañaraz, J P; Radeloff, V C; Bar-Massada, A; Gavier-Pizarro, G I; Scavuzzo, C M; Bellis, L M

2017-07-01

Wildfires are a major threat to people and property in Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) communities worldwide, but while the patterns of the WUI in North America, Europe and Oceania have been studied before, this is not the case in Latin America. Our goals were to a) map WUI areas in central Argentina, and b) assess wildfire exposure for WUI communities in relation to historic fires, with special emphasis on large fires and estimated burn probability based on an empirical model. We mapped the WUI in the mountains of central Argentina (810,000 ha), after digitizing the location of 276,700 buildings and deriving vegetation maps from satellite imagery. The areas where houses and wildland vegetation intermingle were classified as Intermix WUI (housing density > 6.17 hu/km 2 and wildland vegetation cover > 50%), and the areas where wildland vegetation abuts settlements were classified as Interface WUI (housing density > 6.17 hu/km 2 , wildland vegetation cover < 50%, but within 600 m of a vegetated patch larger than 5 km 2 ). We generated burn probability maps based on historical fire data from 1999 to 2011; as well as from an empirical model of fire frequency. WUI areas occupied 15% of our study area and contained 144,000 buildings (52%). Most WUI area was Intermix WUI, but most WUI buildings were in the Interface WUI. Our findings suggest that central Argentina has a WUI fire problem. WUI areas included most of the buildings exposed to wildfires and most of the buildings located in areas of higher burn probability. Our findings can help focus fire management activities in areas of higher risk, and ultimately provide support for landscape management and planning aimed at reducing wildfire risk in WUI communities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vegetation limits the impact of a warm climate on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Ali, Adam A; Carcaillet, Christopher; Blarquez, Olivier; Hély, Christelle; Terrier, Aurélie; Genries, Aurélie; Bergeron, Yves

2013-09-01

Strategic introduction of less flammable broadleaf vegetation into landscapes was suggested as a management strategy for decreasing the risk of boreal wildfires projected under climatic change. However, the realization and strength of this offsetting effect in an actual environment remain to be demonstrated. Here we combined paleoecological data, global climate models and wildfire modelling to assess regional fire frequency (RegFF, i.e. the number of fires through time) in boreal forests as it relates to tree species composition and climate over millennial time-scales. Lacustrine charcoals from northern landscapes of eastern boreal Canada indicate that RegFF during the mid-Holocene (6000-3000 yr ago) was significantly higher than pre-industrial RegFF (AD c. 1750). In southern landscapes, RegFF was not significantly higher than the pre-industrial RegFF in spite of the declining drought severity. The modelling experiment indicates that the high fire risk brought about by a warmer and drier climate in the south during the mid-Holocene was offset by a higher broadleaf component. Our data highlight an important function for broadleaf vegetation in determining boreal RegFF in a warmer climate. We estimate that its feedback may be large enough to offset the projected climate change impacts on drought conditions. © 2013 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Assessing Mental Models of Emergencies Through Two Knowledge Elicitation Tasks.

PubMed

Whitmer, Daphne E; Sims, Valerie K; Torres, Michael E

2017-05-01

The goals of this study were to assess the risk identification aspect of mental models using standard elicitation methods and how university campus alerts were related to these mental models. People fail to follow protective action recommendations in emergency warnings. Past research has yet to examine cognitive processes that influence emergency decision-making. Study 1 examined 2 years of emergency alerts distributed by a large southeastern university. In Study 2, participants listed emergencies in a thought-listing task. Study 3 measured participants' time to decide if a situation was an emergency. The university distributed the most alerts about an armed person, theft, and fire. In Study 2, participants most frequently listed fire, car accident, heart attack, and theft. In Study 3, participants quickly decided a bomb, murder, fire, tornado, and rape were emergencies. They most slowly decided that a suspicious package and identify theft were emergencies. Recent interaction with warnings was only somewhat related to participants' mental models of emergencies. Risk identification precedes decision-making and applying protective actions. Examining these characteristics of people's mental representations of emergencies is fundamental to further understand why some emergency warnings go ignored. Someone must believe a situation is serious to categorize it as an emergency before taking the protective action recommendations in an emergency warning. Present-day research must continue to examine the problem of people ignoring warning communication, as there are important cognitive factors that have not yet been explored until the present research.

Integrating land cover modeling and adaptive management to conserve endangered species and reduce catastrophic fire risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

2014-01-01

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by the specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuel monitoring with decision-making focused on the dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy; other conditions require tradeoffs between objectives. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by developing hypotheses based on ideas about fire behavior and then applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and to increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility and identifies a clear role for land cover modeling programs intended to inform decision-making.

High resolution fire risk mapping in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

2014-05-01

The high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity makes Italy vulnerable to forest fires both in the summer and in winter. In particular, northern regions are predominantly characterized by a winter fire regime, mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north, while southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. The agricultural and rural areas, in the last century, have been gradually abandoned, especially in areas with complex topography. Many of these areas were subject to reforestation, leading to the spread of pioneer species mainly represented by Mediterranean conifer, which are highly vulnerable to fire. Because of the frequent spread of fire, these areas are limited to the early successional stages, consisting mainly of shrub vegetation; its survival in the competition with the climax species being ensured by the spread of fire itself. Due to the frequency of fire ignition — almost entirely man caused — the time between fires on the same area is at least an order of magnitude less than the time that would allow the establishment of forest climax species far less vulnerable to fire. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions, which is expected to make a significant contribution to the problem in a few years' time. The goal of such detailed planning is to dramatically reduce the costs associated with water bombers fleet management and fire extinguishing actions, leaving more resources to improve safety in areas at risk. With the availability of fire perimeters mapped over a period spanning from 5 to 10 years, depending by the region, a procedure was defined in order to assess areas at risk with high spatial resolution (900 m2) based on objective criteria by observing past fire events. The availability of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behaviour. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November- April and May- October). In addition, the total precipitation obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 460 raingauges and the average air temperature obtained downscaling 30 years ERA-INTERIM data series were considered. About 48000 fire perimeters which burnt about 5500 km2 were considered in the analysis. The analysis has been carried out at 30 m spatial resolution. Some important considerations relating to climate and the territorial features that characterize the fire regime at national level contribute to better understand the forest fire phenomena. These results allow to define new strategies for forest fire prevention and management extensible to other geographical areas.

Fire Patterns and Drivers of Fires in the West African Tropical Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwomoh, F. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

2015-12-01

The West African tropical forest (referred to as the Upper Guinean forest, UGF), is a global biodiversity hotspot providing vital ecosystem services for the region's socio-economic and environmental wellbeing. It is also one of the most fragmented and human-modified tropical forest ecosystems, with the only remaining large patches of original forests contained in protected areas. However, these remnant forests are susceptible to continued fire-mediated degradation and forest loss due to intense climatic, demographic and land use pressures. We analyzed human and climatic drivers of fire activity in the sub-region to better understand the spatial and temporal patterns of these risks. We utilized MODIS active fire and burned area products to identify fire activity within the sub-region. We measured climatic variability using TRMM rainfall data and derived indicators of human land use from a variety of geospatial datasets. We used a boosted regression trees model to determine the influences of predictor variables on fire activity. Our analyses indicated that the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation is a key driving factor of fire activity in the UGF. Anthropogenic effects on fire activity in the area were evident through the influences of agriculture and low-density populations. These human footprints in the landscape make forests more susceptible to fires through forest fragmentation, degradation, and fire spread from agricultural areas. Forested protected areas within the forest savanna mosaic experienced frequent fires, whereas the more humid forest areas located in the south and south-western portions of the study area had fewer fires as these rainforests tend to offer some buffering against fire encroachment. These results improve characterization of UGF fire regime and expand our understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of tropical forest fires in response to human and climatic pressures.

Implementation of National Fire Plan treatments near the wildland-urban interface in the western United States.

PubMed

Schoennagel, Tania; Nelson, Cara R; Theobald, David M; Carnwath, Gunnar C; Chapman, Teresa B

2009-06-30

Because of increasing concern about the effects of catastrophic wildland fires throughout the western United States, federal land managers have been engaged in efforts to restore historical fire behavior and mitigate wildfire risk. During the last 5 years (2004-2008), 44,000 fuels treatments were implemented across the western United States under the National Fire Plan (NFP). We assessed the extent to which these treatments were conducted in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where they would have the greatest potential to reduce fire risk in neighboring homes and communities. Although federal policies stipulate that significant resources should be invested in the WUI, we found that only 3% of the area treated was within the WUI, and another 8% was in an additional 2.5-km buffer around the WUI, totaling 11%. Only 17% of this buffered WUI is under federal ownership, which significantly limits the ability of federal agencies to implement fire-risk reduction treatments near communities. Although treatments far from the WUI may have some fire mitigation benefits, our findings suggest that greater priority must be given to locating treatments in and near the WUI, rather than in more remote settings, to satisfy NFP goals of reducing fire risk to communities. However, this may require shifting management and policy emphasis from public to private lands.

Soil responses to the fire and fire surrogate study in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Emily E.Y. Moghaddas; Scott L. Stephens

2007-01-01

The Fire and Fire Surrogate Study utilizes forest thinning and prescribed burning in attempt to create forest stand structures that reduce the risk of catastrophic wildfire. Replicated treatments consisting of mechanical tree harvest (commercial harvest plus mastication of submerchantable material), mechanical harvest followed by prescribed fire, prescribed fire alone...

Development of Large-Scale Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; T'ien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Legros, Guillaume; Eigenbrod, Christian; Smirnov, Nickolay; Fujita, Osamu; Cowlard, Adam J.;

Crash-resistant fuel system effectiveness in civil helicopter crashes.

PubMed

Hayden, Mark S; Shanahan, Dennis F; Chen, Li-Hui; Baker, Susan P

2005-08-01

Crash-resistant fuel systems (CRFS) have demonstrated close to 100% effectiveness in survivable crashes of Army helicopters, but the technology has been slow to transfer into the civil helicopter arena. Federal standards for civil helicopter CRFS are less stringent than those for military helicopters. A reduction in standards for CRFS in military helicopters is being considered. The goal of this study was to determine whether crashes of civil helicopters with CRFS are less likely to result in post-crash fire than crashes of those without. Crashes of civil helicopters during 1982-2004 were analyzed, comparing Bell 206 helicopters manufactured with CRFS with Aerospatial 350 helicopters manufactured during the same period (post-1981), but lacking CRFS. Bell 206 helicopters with CRFS were also compared with earlier models without CRFS. The highest proportion of crashes with post-crash fires (11.3%) was in AS-350s manufactured after 1981 (non-CRFS), and the lowest (3.7%) was in Bell 206s (with CRFS) [unadjusted risk ratio (RR) = 3.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.04, 10.50; adjusted for light and weather, RR = 2.81, Cl = 0.82, 9.69]. Earlier models of Bell 206s without CRFS had higher risk of post-crash fire than post-1981 models with CRFS (7.4% vs. 3.7%; adjusted RR = 2.11, Cl = 0.82, 5.45). The results of this study suggest a better performance, in terms of post-crash fire prevention, of CRFS-equipped civil helicopters as compared with those without CRFS. It is possible that CRFS in civil helicopters have not achieved the same degree of effectiveness as CRFS in military helicopters. CRFS should be used more widely in civil helicopters. The more stringent CRFS requirements for military helicopters should not be reduced without further research.

The Fire and Fire Surrogates Study: Providing guidelines for fire in future forest watershed management decisions

Treesearch

Carleton B. Edminster; C. Phillip Weatherspoon; Daniel G. Neary

2000-01-01

As part of the 1998 Joint USDA/USDI Fire Science Program, the Fire and Fire Surrogates Study was proposed to establish and evaluate cross-comparisons of fuels treatment practices and techniques to reduce wildfire risk. This study evaluates prescribed fire, thinning, and various mechanical treatment methods for treating, removing, or using woody biomass. Site-specific...

Land cover change interacts with drought severity to change fire regimes in Western Amazonia.

PubMed

Gutiérrez-Vélez, Víctor H; Uriarte, María; DeFries, Ruth; Pinedo-Vásquez, Miguel; Fernandes, Katia; Ceccato, Pietro; Baethgen, Walter; Padoch, Christine

Fire is becoming a pervasive driver of environmental change in Amazonia and is expected to intensify, given projected reductions in precipitation and forest cover. Understanding of the influence of post-deforestation land cover change on fires in Amazonia is limited, even though fires in cleared lands constitute a threat for ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. We used MODIS satellite data to map burned areas annually between 2001 and 2010. We then combined these maps with land cover and climate information to understand the influence of land cover change in cleared lands and dry-season severity on fire occurrence and spread in a focus area in the Peruvian Amazon. Fire occurrence, quantified as the probability of burning of individual 232-m spatial resolution MODIS pixels, was modeled as a function of the area of land cover types within each pixel, drought severity, and distance to roads. Fire spread, quantified as the number of pixels burned in 3 × 3 pixel windows around each focal burned pixel, was modeled as a function of land cover configuration and area, dry-season severity, and distance to roads. We found that vegetation regrowth and oil palm expansion are significantly correlated with fire occurrence, but that the magnitude and sign of the correlation depend on drought severity, successional stage of regrowing vegetation, and oil palm age. Burning probability increased with the area of nondegraded pastures, fallow, and young oil palm and decreased with larger extents of degraded pastures, secondary forests, and adult oil palm plantations. Drought severity had the strongest influence on fire occurrence, overriding the effectiveness of secondary forests, but not of adult plantations, to reduce fire occurrence in severely dry years. Overall, irregular and scattered land cover patches reduced fire spread but irregular and dispersed fallows and secondary forests increased fire spread during dry years. Results underscore the importance of land cover management for reducing fire proliferation in this landscape. Incentives for promoting natural regeneration and perennial crops in cleared lands might help to reduce fire risk if those areas are protected against burning in early stages of development and during severely dry years.

Climate, not Aboriginal landscape burning, controlled the historical demography and distribution of fire-sensitive conifer populations across Australia

PubMed Central

Sakaguchi, Shota; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Prior, Lynda D.; Crisp, Michael D.; Linde, Celeste C.; Tsumura, Yoshihiko; Isagi, Yuji

2013-01-01

Climate and fire are the key environmental factors that shape the distribution and demography of plant populations in Australia. Because of limited palaeoecological records in this arid continent, however, it is unclear as to which factor impacted vegetation more strongly, and what were the roles of fire regime changes owing to human activity and megafaunal extinction (since ca 50 kya). To address these questions, we analysed historical genetic, demographic and distributional changes in a widespread conifer species complex that paradoxically grows in fire-prone regions, yet is very sensitive to fire. Genetic demographic analysis showed that the arid populations experienced strong bottlenecks, consistent with range contractions during the Last Glacial Maximum (ca 20 kya) predicted by species distribution models. In southern temperate regions, the population sizes were estimated to have been mostly stable, followed by some expansion coinciding with climate amelioration at the end of the last glacial period. By contrast, in the flammable tropical savannahs, where fire risk is the highest, demographic analysis failed to detect significant population bottlenecks. Collectively, these results suggest that the impact of climate change overwhelmed any modifications to fire regimes by Aboriginal landscape burning and megafaunal extinction, a finding that probably also applies to other fire-prone vegetation across Australia. PMID:24174110

Landscape fire in East Siberia: medical, ecological and economic aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efimova, N. V.; Rukavishnikov, V. S.; Zabuga, G. A.; Elfimova, T. A.

2018-01-01

More than 40 % of the forests in Siberia region are known to have a fire danger of high classes and high burning degrees. This paper describes air pollutants emission (PM10, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and others) in East Siberian region during a 10-year period in the forests fires focus. A total of 500 to 2000 fires occurred in Irkutsk oblast during the last ten years. At an average annual forest fires cover an area of 1 109 hectares on the model territory (Bratsk city). The plane pollutant emission source with a high productivity is formed on the significant forest fire area occurred in a relatively short-term time periods. The increase in hazard ratios was registered for the ingredients of emission-specific industrial enterprises and capable of accumulating in vegetation: carbon disulphide 1.9 times, fluorine-containing substances 1.8 times during the fire. The economic loss of energy resources resulting from reduced production of firewood was estimated at 56.6 million in Irkutsk oblast. The potential risk of negative effects for the respiratory system and cardiovascular system stipulated for the acute inhalation exposure was found to increase on the days, of the fires, as evidenced by the growth of the daily mortality and morbidity rates among the population.

Managing wildland fire risk in Florida

Treesearch

J. Brenner; D. Carlton; S. McLellan; A. Dozier; T. Spencer; D. Buckley; A. Ralowicz

2010-01-01

Florida’s Wildland Fire Risk Assessment (FRA), which was completed in 2002, is a statewide effort to develop a comprehensive suite of standardized spatial data layers developed to support implementation of a statewide fuels management strategy. By maintaining focus on fire and fuel dynamics for use with scientifically credible local to statewide applications, the FRA...

Wildfire communication and climate risk mitigation

Treesearch

Robyn S. Wilson; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric Toman

2017-01-01

Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire...

Modeling aeolian transport in response to succession, disturbance and future climate: Dynamic long-term risk assessment for contaminant redistribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breshears, D.D.; Kirchner, T.B.; Whicker, J.J.; Field, J.P.; Allen, Craig D.

2012-01-01

Aeolian sediment transport is a fundamental process redistributing sediment, nutrients, and contaminants in dryland ecosystems. Over time frames of centuries or longer, horizontal sediment fluxes and associated rates of contaminant transport are likely to be influenced by succession, disturbances, and changes in climate, yet models of horizontal sediment transport that account for these fundamental factors are lacking, precluding in large part accurate assessment of human health risks associated with persistent soil-bound contaminants. We present a simple model based on empirical measurements of horizontal sediment transport (predominantly saltation) to predict potential contaminant transport rates for recently disturbed sites such as a landfill cover. Omnidirectional transport is estimated within vegetation that changes using a simple Markov model that simulates successional trajectory and considers three types of short-term disturbances (surface fire, crown fire, and drought-induced plant mortality) under current and projected climates. The model results highlight that movement of contaminated soil is sensitive to vegetation dynamics and increases substantially (e.g., > fivefold) when disturbance and/or future climate are considered. The time-dependent responses in horizontal sediment fluxes and associated contaminant fluxes were sensitive to variability in the timing of disturbance, with longer intervals between disturbance allowing woody plants to become dominant and crown fire and drought abruptly reducing woody plant cover. Our results, which have direct implications for contaminant transport and landfill management in the specific context of our assessment, also have general relevance because they highlight the need to more fully account for vegetation dynamics, disturbance, and changing climate in aeolian process studies.

What does it take to start an oropharyngeal fire? Oxygen requirements to start fires in the operating room.

PubMed

Roy, Soham; Smith, Lee P

2011-02-01

Airway fires are a well-described and potentially devastating complication of oropharyngeal surgery. However, the actual factors required to ignite the fire have never been well-delineated in the medical literature. In this study, we used a mechanical model to assess the oxygen parameters necessary to cause an oropharyngeal fire. An electrosurgical unit (Bovie) was grounded to a whole raw chicken and a 6.0 endotracheal tube (ETT) was inserted into the cranial end of the degutted central cavity. Oxygen (O(2)) was then titrated through the ETT tube at varying concentrations, with flow rates varying from 10 to 15L/min. Electrocautery (at a setting of 15W) was performed on tissue in the central cavity of the chicken near the ETT. All trials were repeated twice to ensure accuracy. Positive test results were quantified by the time required to obtain ignition of any part of the mechanical setup and time required to produce a sustained flame. A test was considered negative if no ignition could be obtained after four minutes of direct electrocautery. At an O(2) concentration of 100% and a flow rate of 15L/min, ignition with a sustained flame was obtained between 15 and 30s after initiation of electrocautery. At 100% O(2) at 10L/min, ignition was obtained at 70s with immediate sustained flame. At an O(2) concentration of 60%, ignition occurred at 25s and sustained fire after 60s. At an O(2) concentration of 50% ignition with a sustained flame occurred between 128 and 184s. At an O(2) concentration of 45%, neither ignition nor sustained flames could be obtained in any trial. Operating room fires remain a genuine danger when performing oropharyngeal surgery where electrocautery is performed in an oxygen-enriched environment. In our study, higher O(2) flow rates with higher FiO(2) correlated with quicker ignition in the chicken cavity. A fire was easily obtained when using 100% O(2); as the O(2) concentration decreases, longer exposure to electrocautery is required for ignition. Below 50% O(2) we were unable to obtain ignition. Our study is the first to examine the relative risk of ignition and sustained fire in a mechanical model of oropharyngeal surgery. Decreasing the fraction of inspired O(2) (FiO(2)) to less than 50% may substantially decrease the risk of airway fire during oropharyngeal surgery. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study on Climate and Grassland Fire in HulunBuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Meifang; Zhao, Jianjun; Guo, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Zhengxiang; Tan, Gang; Yang, Jihong

2017-01-01

Grassland fire is one of the most important disturbance factors of the natural ecosystem. Climate factors influence the occurrence and development of grassland fire. An analysis of the climate conditions of fire occurrence can form the basis for a study of the temporal and spatial variability of grassland fire. The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of monthly time scale climate factors on the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir, located in the northeast of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in China. Based on the logistic regression method, we used the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire data products named thermal anomalies/fire daily L3 Global 1km (MOD14A1 (Terra) and MYD14A1 (Aqua)) and associated climate data for HulunBuir from 2000 to 2010, and established the model of grassland fire climate index. The results showed that monthly maximum temperature, monthly sunshine hours and monthly average wind speed were all positively correlated with the fire climate index; monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, monthly average relative humidity, monthly minimum relative humidity and the number of days with monthly precipitation greater than or equal to 5 mm were all negatively correlated with the fire climate index. We used the active fire data from 2011 to 2014 to validate the fire climate index during this time period, and the validation result was good (Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.578), which showed that the fire climate index model was suitable for analyzing the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir. Analyses were conducted on the temporal and spatial distribution of the fire climate index from January to December in the years 2011–2014; it could be seen that from March to May and from September to October, the fire climate index was higher, and that the fire climate index of the other months is relatively low. The zones with higher fire climate index are mainly distributed in Xin Barag Youqi, Xin Barag Zuoqi, Zalantun Shi, Oroqen Zizhiqi, and Molidawa Zizhiqi; the zones with medium fire climate index are mainly distributed in Chen Barag Qi, Ewenkizu Zizhiqi, Manzhouli Shi, and Arun Qi; and the zones with lower fire climate index are mainly distributed in Genhe Shi, Ergun city, Yakeshi Shi, and Hailar Shi. The results of this study will contribute to the quantitative assessment and management of early warning and forecasting for mid-to long-term grassland fire risk in HulunBuir. PMID:28304336

Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Syphard, Alexandra D; Franklin, Janet; Anderson, Kurt E; Akçakaya, H Resit; Mizerek, Toni; Winchell, Clark; Regan, Helen M

2014-08-01

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

GIS applied to location of fires detection towers in domain area of tropical forest.

PubMed

Eugenio, Fernando Coelho; Rosa Dos Santos, Alexandre; Fiedler, Nilton Cesar; Ribeiro, Guido Assunção; da Silva, Aderbal Gomes; Juvanhol, Ronie Silva; Schettino, Vitor Roberto; Marcatti, Gustavo Eduardo; Domingues, Getúlio Fonseca; Alves Dos Santos, Gleissy Mary Amaral Dino; Pezzopane, José Eduardo Macedo; Pedra, Beatriz Duguy; Banhos, Aureo; Martins, Lima Deleon

2016-08-15

In most countries, the loss of biodiversity caused by the fires is worrying. In this sense, the fires detection towers are crucial for rapid identification of fire outbreaks and can also be used in environmental inspection, biodiversity monitoring, telecommunications mechanisms, telemetry and others. Currently the methodologies for allocating fire detection towers over large areas are numerous, complex and non-standardized by government supervisory agencies. Therefore, this study proposes and evaluates different methodologies to best location of points to install fire detection towers considering the topography, risk areas, conservation units and heat spots. Were used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and unaligned stratified systematic sampling for implementing and evaluating 9 methods for allocating fire detection towers. Among the methods evaluated, the C3 method was chosen, represented by 140 fire detection towers, with coverage of: a) 67% of the study area, b) 73.97% of the areas with high risk, c) 70.41% of the areas with very high risk, d) 70.42% of the conservation units and e) 84.95% of the heat spots in 2014. The proposed methodology can be adapted to areas of other countries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can acceptable risk be defined in wildland firefighting?

Treesearch

David Clancy

2011-01-01

Risk is an ever-present challenge for fire agencies, fire managers, and firefighters, who must ensure that risks are managed at a level that is as low as reasonably practicable. This challenge provides a significant dilemma as there is no one prescriptive method for—or consensus on—defining "acceptable risk" in the field of firefighting....

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques to reduce post-fire runoff and erosion in Mediterranean pine stands - does cover matter?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, Diana; Nunes, João; Prats, Sergio; Serpa, Dalila; Keizer, Jan

2016-04-01

Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many forest ecosystems of the Mediterranean. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters make it prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. Furthermore, climate change and continuation of current land management practices and planning are generally expected to further increase this threat. The wide recognition of the effects of wildfires to enhance runoff and erosion has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire forestry operations to mitigate these responses. Such a tool should allow to identify areas with elevated risks of soil erosion and to evaluate which measures should be applied and when to minimize these risks. A key element in evaluating these measures is also their costs, in order to optimize the use of the limited resources that are typically available for post-fire land management. In this study, two "treatments" are compared with control conditions (i.e. doing nothing) after a wildfire with a moderate soil burn severity: (i) 4 erosion plots were treated with hydro-mulch, (ii) 4 erosion plots were untreated but had a high pine needle cover quickly after the fire, due to needle cast from scorched pine crowns (often referred to as "natural mulching") (iii) 4 plots were untreated and had a very reduced protective litter cover . The main objective of this study was to asses if the revised MMF model could effectively predict the impacts of hydro-mulching and natural mulching with pine needle on runoff generation and the associated soil losses. If MMF could predict well the impact of natural mulching, it could be very useful in limiting the areas that should be considered for specific soil mitigation measures, especially in the case of wildfires that affect large areas with moderate severity. The revised MMF model allowed, in fact, accurate predictions of runoff and soil erosion over the first year following hydro-mulch application . The obtained efficiency indices (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency) of 0.82 and 0.71 for runoff and erosion, respectively, suggested that the revised MMF model could be at the base of a tool to assist decision-making in post-fire forest management. Furthermore, the MMF results obtained for hydro-mulching agreed well with those obtained in a previous study in the region for mulching with forest residues (Vieira et al., 2014). Ongoing work is assessing the possible improvements in model predictions by applying MMF on a seasonal basis and/or taking into account the occurrence of soil water repellency, i.e. using the adjustments of MMF to post-fire conditions as proposed in Vieira et al. (2014) and so far only tested - successfully - for eucalypt plantations in the study region. Vieira DCS, Prats SA, Nunes JP, Shakesby RA, Coelho COA, Keizer JJ (2014) Modelling runoff and erosion, and their mitigation, in burned Portuguese forest using the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney model. Forest Ecology and Management 314: 150-165

An Implementing Strategy for Improving Wildland Fire Environmental Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCalla, M. R.; Andrus, D.; Barnett, K.

2007-12-01

Wildland fire is any planned or unplanned fire which occurs in wildland ecosystems. Wildland fires affect millions of acres annually in the U.S. An average of 5.4 million acres a year were burned in the U.S. between 1995 and 2004, approximately 142 percent of the average burned area between 1984 and 1994. In 2005 alone, Federal agencies spent nearly $1 billion on fire suppression and state and local agencies contributed millions more. Many Americans prefer to live and vacation in relatively remote surroundings, (i.e., woods and rangelands). These choices offer many benefits, but they also present significant risks. Most of North America is fire-prone and every day developed areas and home sites are extending further into natural wildlands, which increases the chances of catastrophic fire. In addition, an abundance of accumulated biomass in forests and rangelands and persistent drought conditions are contributing to larger, costlier wildland fires. To effectively prevent, manage, suppress, respond to, and recover from wildland fires, fire managers, and other communities which are impacted by wildland fires (e.g., the business community; healthcare providers; federal, state, and local policymakers; the media; the public, etc.) need timely, accurate, and detailed wildland fire weather and climate information to support their decision-making activities. But what are the wildland fire weather and climate data, products, and information, as well as information dissemination technologies, needed to reach out and promote wildland fire environmental literacy in these communities? The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) conducted a comprehensive review and assessment of weather and climate needs of providers and users in their wildland fire and fuels management activities. The assessment has nine focus areas, one of which is environmental literacy (e.g., education, training, outreach, partnering, and collaboration). The OFCM model for promoting wildland fire environmental literacy, the model's component parts, as well as an implementing strategy to execute the model will be presented. That is, the presentation will lay out the framework and methodology which the OFCM used to systematically define the wildland fire weather and climate education and outreach needs through interdepartmental collaboration within the OFCM coordinating infrastructure. A key element of the methodology is to improve the overall understanding and use of wildland fire forecast and warning climate and weather products and to exploit current and emerging technologies to improve the dissemination of customer-tailored forecast and warning information and products to stakeholders and users. Thus, the framework and methodology define the method used to determine the target public, private, and academic sector audiences. The methodology also identifies the means for determining the optimal channels, formats, and content for informing end users in time for effective action to be taken.

Measuring the effect of fuel treatments on forest carbon using landscape risk analysis

Treesearch

A.A. Ager; M.A. Finney; A. McMahan; J. Carthcart

2010-01-01

Wildfire simulation modelling was used to examine whether fuel reduction treatments can potentially reduce future wildfire emissions and provide carbon benefits. In contrast to previous reports, the current study modelled landscape scale effects of fuel treatments on fire spread and intensity, and used a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire effects on carbon...

Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models

Treesearch

Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

2012-01-01

The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) uses spatial vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) to forecast future vegetation conditions and the interacting effects of natural disturbances and management activities. Results from ILAP will help land managers, planners, and policymakers evaluate management strategies that reduce fire risk, improve...

Spatial distribution of human-caused forest fires in Galicia (NW Spain)

Treesearch

M. L. Chas-Amil; J. Touza; P. Prestemon

2010-01-01

It is crucial for fire prevention policies to assess the spatial patterns of human-started fires and their relationship with geographical and socioeconomic aspects. This study uses fire reports for the period 1988-2006 in Galicia, Spain, to analyze the spatial distribution of human-induced fire risk attending to causes and underlying motivations associated with fire...

Impacts of climate on shrubland fuels and fire behavior in the Owyhee Basin, Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogelmann, J. E.; Shi, H.; Hawbaker, T.; Li, Z.

2013-12-01

There is evidence that wildland fire is increasing as a function of global change. However, fire activity is spatially, temporally and ecologically variable across the globe, and our understanding of fire risk and behavior in many ecosystems is limited. After a series of severe fire seasons that occurred during the late 1990's in the western United States, the LANDFIRE program was developed with the goals of providing the fire community with objective spatial fuel data for assessing wildland fire risk. Even with access to the data provided by LANDFIRE, assessing fire behavior in shrublands in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems of the western United States has proven especially problematic, in part due to the complex nature of the vegetation, the variable influence of understory vegetation including invasive species (e.g. cheatgrass), and prior fire history events. Climate is undoubtedly playing a major role, affecting the intra- and inter-annual variability in vegetation conditions, which in turn impacts fire behavior. In order to further our understanding of climate-vegetation-fire interactions in shrublands, we initiated a study in the Owyhee Basin, which is located in southwestern Idaho and adjacent Nevada. Our goals include: (1) assessing the relationship between climate and vegetation condition, (2) quantifying the range of temporal variability in grassland and shrubland fuel loads, (3) identifying methods to operationally map the variability in fuel loads, and (4) assessing how the variability in fuel loads affect fire spread simulations. To address these goals, we are using a wide variety of geospatial data, including remotely sensed time-series data sets derived from MODIS and Landsat, and climate data from DAYMET and PRISM. Remotely-sensed information is used to characterize climate-induced temporal variability in primary productivity in the Basin, where fire spread can be extensive after senescence when dry vegetation is added to dead fuel loads. Gridded climate data indicate that this area has become warmer and dryer over the previous three decades. We have also observed that fires are especially prevalent in areas that have high Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values in the spring, followed by low NDVI in the summer. At present we are concentrating on the temporally rich MODIS data to map spatial and temporal variability in live fuel loads. To translate NDVI to biomass, we are scaling the range of biomass values using data from the literature. We assume that departure from maximum NDVI, typically occurring during spring, to NDVI values later in the season are related to the proportion of live biomass transferred to dead biomass, which burns more readily than green biomass. Using the FARSITE fire spread model, our initial simulations show that the conversion from live herbaceous fuel to dead fuel increases the burn area by 30% compared with using default static fuel parameters. This indicates that current fuel models underestimate fire spread and areas that could potentially burn. Our study also indicates that a combined remote sensing product with good temporal resolution (MODIS) and spatial resolution (Landsat) is necessary to provide accurate information on the fuel dynamics in shrublands.

WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

Treesearch

Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

2012-01-01

A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

Evaluating Post-Fire Forest Resilience Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

Evaluating post-fire forest resilience using GIS and multi-criteria analysis: an example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece.

PubMed

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

National Fire Plan Research and Development 2001 Business Summary

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service

2002-01-01

Wildland fire remains a serious concern to the people of our Nation. This concern has been turned into action in the form of the National Fire Plan (NFP), an accelerated interagency effort, begun after the disastrous 2000 fire season, to step up, coordinate, and concentrate activity on reducing fire risks.

Fire Safety for Retired Adults: Participant's Coursebook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker (Bonnie) and Associates, Inc., Crofton, MD.

The risk of dying from fire increases substantially among older adults. This document contains a collection of fire safety information for elderly people. Information includes procedures to follow in case of fire and early warning technologies such as smoke alarms. The booklet describes potential sources of fires (smoking, home heating, kitchens,…

Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shvidenko, Anatoly; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

2013-04-01

On-going climatic changes substantially accelerate current fire regimes in Northern Eurasian ecosystems, particularly in forests. During 1998-2012, wildfires enveloped on average ~10.5 M ha year-1 in Russia with a large annual variation (between 3 and 30 M ha) and average direct carbon emissions at ~150 Tg C year-1. Catastrophic fires, which envelope large areas, spread in usually incombustible wetlands, escape from control and provide extraordinary negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, economics, infrastructure, environment, and health of population, become a typical feature of the current fire regimes. There are new evidences of correlation between catastrophic fires and large-scale climatic anomalies at a continental scale. While current climatic predictions suggest the dramatic warming (at the average at 6-7 °C for the country and up to 10-12°C in some northern continental regions), any substantial increase of summer precipitation does not expected. Increase of dryness and instability of climate will impact fire risk and severity of consequences. Current models suggest a 2-3 fold increase of the number of fires by the end of this century in the boreal zone. They predict increases of the number of catastrophic fires; a significant increase in the intensity of fire and amount of consumed fuel; synergies between different types of disturbances (outbreaks of insects, unregulated anthropogenic impacts); acceleration of composition of the gas emissions due to enhanced soil burning. If boreal forests would become a typing element, the mass mortality of trees would increase fire risk and severity. Permafrost melting and subsequent change of hydrological regimes very likely will lead to the degradation and destruction of boreal forests, as well as to the widespread irreversible replacement of forests by other underproductive vegetation types. A significant feedback between warming and escalating fire regimes is very probable in Russia and particularly in the permafrost areas. Overall, Russia should expect a disproportionate escalation of fire regimes compared to increasing climatic fire danger. Thus, development and implementation of an efficient adaptation strategy is a pressing problem of current forest management of the country. An appropriate system of forest fire protection which would be able to meet challenges of future climates is a corner stone of such a strategy. We consider possible systems solutions of this complex problem including (1) integrated ecological and socio-economic analysis of current and future fire regimes; (2) regional requirements to and specific features of a new paradigm of forest fire protection in the boreal zone of Northern Eurasia; (3) anticipatory strategy of the prevention of large-scale disturbances in forests, including adaptation of forest landscapes to the future climates (regulation of tree composition; setup of relevant spatial structure of forest landscapes; etc.); (4) implementation of an effective system of forest monitoring as part of integrated observing systems; (5) transition to ecologically-friendly systems of industrial development of northern territories; (6) development of new/ improvement of existing legislation and institutional frameworks of forest management which would be satisfactory to react on challenges of climate change; and (6) international cooperation.

Exposure to an Indoor Cooking Fire and Risk of Trachoma in Children of Kongwa, Tanzania

PubMed Central

Zambrano, Andrea I.; Muñoz, Beatriz E.; Mkocha, Harran; West, Sheila K.

2015-01-01

Background Elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020 can only be achieved if affected areas have effective control programs in place before the target date. Identifying risk factors for active disease that are amenable to intervention is important to successfully design such programs. Previous studies have linked sleeping by a cooking fire to trachoma in children, but not fully explored the mechanism and risks. We propose to determine the risk for active trachoma in children with exposure to cooking fires by severity of trachoma, adjusting for other known risk factors. Methods Complete census of 52 communities in Kongwa, Tanzania, was conducted to collect basic household characteristics and demographic information on each family member. Information on exposure to indoor cooking fires while the mother was cooking and while sleeping for each child was collected. 6656 randomly selected children ages 1-9yrs were invited to a survey where both eyelids were graded for follicular (TF) and intense trachoma (TI) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Ocular swab were taken to assess the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis. Findings 5240 (79%) of the invited children participated in the study. Overall prevalence for trachoma was 6·1%. Odds for trachoma and increased severity were higher in children sleeping without ventilation and a cooking fire in their room (TF OR = 1·81, 1·00–3·27 and TI OR 4·06, 1·96–8·42). Children with TF or TI who were exposed were more likely to have infection than children with TF or TI who were not exposed. There was no increased risk with exposure to a cooking fire while the mother was cooking. Conclusions In addition to known risk factors for trachoma, sleeping by an indoor cooking fire in a room without ventilation was associated with active trachoma and appears to substantially increase the risk of intense inflammation. PMID:26046359

Exposure to an Indoor Cooking Fire and Risk of Trachoma in Children of Kongwa, Tanzania.

PubMed

Zambrano, Andrea I; Muñoz, Beatriz E; Mkocha, Harran; West, Sheila K

2015-01-01

Elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020 can only be achieved if affected areas have effective control programs in place before the target date. Identifying risk factors for active disease that are amenable to intervention is important to successfully design such programs. Previous studies have linked sleeping by a cooking fire to trachoma in children, but not fully explored the mechanism and risks. We propose to determine the risk for active trachoma in children with exposure to cooking fires by severity of trachoma, adjusting for other known risk factors. Complete census of 52 communities in Kongwa, Tanzania, was conducted to collect basic household characteristics and demographic information on each family member. Information on exposure to indoor cooking fires while the mother was cooking and while sleeping for each child was collected. 6656 randomly selected children ages 1-9 yrs were invited to a survey where both eyelids were graded for follicular (TF) and intense trachoma (TI) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Ocular swab were taken to assess the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis. 5240 (79%) of the invited children participated in the study. Overall prevalence for trachoma was 6·1%. Odds for trachoma and increased severity were higher in children sleeping without ventilation and a cooking fire in their room (TF OR = 1·81, 1·00-3·27 and TI OR 4·06, 1·96-8·42). Children with TF or TI who were exposed were more likely to have infection than children with TF or TI who were not exposed. There was no increased risk with exposure to a cooking fire while the mother was cooking. In addition to known risk factors for trachoma, sleeping by an indoor cooking fire in a room without ventilation was associated with active trachoma and appears to substantially increase the risk of intense inflammation.

Evaluating impacts of fire management strategies on native and invasive plants using an individual-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangur, Alexander N.; Fill, Jennifer M.; Northfield, Tobin D.; van de Wiel, Marco

2017-04-01

The capacity for species to coexist and potentially exclude one another can broadly be attributed to drivers that influence fitness differences (such as competitive ability) and niche differences (such as environmental change). These drivers, and thus the determinants of coexistence they influence, can interact and fluctuate both spatially and temporally. Understanding the spatiotemporal variation in niche and fitness differences in systems prone to fluctuating drivers, such as fire, can help to inform the management of invasive species. In the Cape floristic region of South Africa, invasive Pinus pinaster seedlings are strong competitors in the post-burn environment of the fire-driven Fynbos vegetation. In this, system native Protea spp. are especially vulnerable to unseasonal burns, but seasonal prescribed (Summer) burns are thought to present a high safety risk. Together, these issues have limited the appeal of prescribed burn management as an alternative to costly manual eradication of P. pinaster. Using a spatially-explicit field-of-neighbourhood individual-based model, we represent the drivers of spatiotemporal variation in niche differences (driven by fire regimes) and fitness differences (driven by competitive ability). In doing so, we evaluate optimal fire management strategies to a) control invasive P. pinaster in the Cape floristic region of South Africa, while b) minimizing deleterious effects of management on native Protea spp. The scarcity of appropriate data for model calibration has been problematic for models in invasion biology, but we use recent advances in Approximate Bayesian Computing techniques to overcome this limitation. We present early conclusions on the viability of prescribed burn management to control P. pinaster in South Africa.

Opportunities for making wood products from small diameter trees in Colorado

Treesearch

Dennis L. Lynch; Kurt H. Mackes

2002-01-01

Colorado's forests are at risk to forest health problems and catastrophic fire. Forest areas at high risk to catastrophic fire, commonly referred to as Red Zones, contain 2.4 million acres in the Colorado Front Range and 6.3 million acres Statewide. The increasing frequency, size, and intensity of recent forest fires have prompted large appropriations of Federal...

Forests at risk: integrating risk science into fuel management strategies.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2008-01-01

The threat from wildland fire continues to grow across many regions of the Western United States. Drought, urbanization, and a buildup of fuels over the last century have contributed to increasing wildfire risk to property and highly valued natural resources. Fuel treatments, including thinning overly dense forests to reduce fuel and lower fire risk, have become a...

75 FR 5355 - Notice of Extension of Comment Period for NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-02

..., Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment AGENCY... 1019195), Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment... Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG)'' is available electronically under ADAMS Accession...

Near and far field contamination modeling in a large scale enclosure: Fire Dynamics Simulator comparisons with measured observations.

PubMed

Ryder, Noah L; Schemel, Christopher F; Jankiewicz, Sean P

2006-03-17

The occurrence of a fire, no matter how small, often exposes objects to significant levels of contamination from the products of combustion. The production and dispersal of these contaminants has been an issue of relevance in the field of fire science for many years, though little work has been done to examine the contamination levels accumulated within an enclosure some time after an incident. This phenomenon is of great importance when considering the consequences associated with even low level contamination of sensitive materials, such as food, pharmaceuticals, clothing, electrical equipment, etc. Not only does such exposure present a localized hazard, but also the shipment of contaminated goods places distant recipients at risk. It is the intent of this paper to use a well-founded computational fluid dynamic (CFD) program, the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), a large eddy simulation (LES) code developed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), to model smoke dispersion in order to assess the subject of air contamination and post fire surface contamination in a warehouse facility. Measured results are then compared with the results from the FDS model. Two components are examined: the production rate of contaminates and the trajectory of contaminates caused by the forced ventilation conditions. Each plays an important role in determining the extent to which the products of combustion are dispersed and the levels to which products are exposed to the contaminants throughout the enclosure. The model results indicate a good first-order approximation to the measured surface contamination levels. The proper application of the FDS model can provide a cost and time efficient means of evaluating contamination levels within a defined volume.

Reducing The Risk Of Fires In Conveyor Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheremushkina, M. S.; Poddubniy, D. A.

2017-01-01

The paper deals with the actual problem of increasing the safety of operation of belt conveyors in mines. Was developed the control algorithm that meets the technical requirements of the mine belt conveyors, reduces the risk of fires of conveyors belt, and enables energy and resource savings taking into account random sort of traffic. The most effective method of decision such tasks is the construction of control systems with the use of variable speed drives for asynchronous motors. Was designed the mathematical model of the system "variable speed multiengine drive - conveyor - control system of conveyors", that takes into account the dynamic processes occurring in the elements of the transport system, provides an assessment of the energy efficiency of application the developed algorithms, which allows to reduce the dynamic overload in the belt to (15-20)%.

Restoring surface fire stabilizes forest carbon under extreme fire weather in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Daniel J. Krofcheck; Matthew D. Hurteau; Robert M. Scheller; E. Louise Loudermilk

2017-01-01

Climate change in the western United States has increased the frequency of extreme fire weather events and is projected to increase the area burned by wildfire in the coming decades. This changing fire regime, coupled with increased high-severity fire risk from a legacy of fire exclusion, could destabilize forest carbon (C), decrease net ecosystem exchange (...

Humans, Fires, and Forests - Social science applied to fire management

Treesearch

Hanna J. Cortner; Donald R. Field; Pam Jakes; James D. Buthman

2003-01-01

The 2000 and 2002 fire seasons resulted in increased political scrutiny of the nation's wildland fire threats, and given the fact that millions of acres of lands are still at high risk for future catastrophic fire events, the issues highlighted by the recent fire seasons are not likely to go away any time soon. Recognizing the magnitude of the problem, the...

Responsible for Fire Safety. Seventh Grade. Fire Safety for Texans: Fire and Burn Prevention Curriculum Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Texas State Commission on Fire Protection, Austin.

This booklet comprises the seventh grade component of a series of curriculum guides on fire and burn prevention. Designed to meet the age-specific needs of seventh grade students, its objectives include: (1) practicing responsible decision-making regarding fire and burn hazards, including peer pressure related to fire risks; and (2) practicing…

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Risks and issues in fire safety on the Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert

1993-01-01

A fire in the inhabited portion of a spacecraft is a greatly feared hazard, but fire protection in space operations is complicated by two factors. First, the spacecraft cabin is an enclosed volume, which limits the resources for fire fighting and the options for crew escape. Second, an orbiting spacecraft experiences a balance of forces, creating a near-zero-gravity (microgravity) environment that profoundly affects the characteristics of fire initiation, spread, and suppression. The current Shuttle Orbiter is protected by a fire-detection and suppression system whose requirements are derived of necessity from accepted terrestrial and aircraft standards. While experience has shown that Shuttle fire safety is adequate, designers recognize that improved systems to respond specifically to microgravity fire characteristics are highly desirable. Innovative technology is particularly advisable for the Space Station, a forthcoming space community with a complex configuration and long-duration orbital missions, in which the effectiveness of current fire-protection systems is unpredictable. The development of risk assessments to evaluate the probabilities and consequences of fire incidents in spacecraft are briefly reviewed. It further discusses the important unresolved issues and needs for improved fire safety in the Space Station, including those of material selection, spacecraft atmospheres, fire detection, fire suppression, and post-fire restoration.