Accelerated weathering of fire-retardant-treated wood for fire testing

Treesearch

Robert H. White

2009-01-01

Fire-retardant-treated products for exterior applications must be subjected to actual or accelerated weathering prior to fire testing. For fire-retardant-treated wood, the two accelerated weathering methods have been Method A and B of ASTM D 2898. The rain test is Method A of ASTM D 2898. Method B includes exposures to ultraviolet (UV) sunlamps in addition to water...

1954 forest fire weather in western Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1954-01-01

For the second successive fire season forest fire weather in western Oregon and Washington was far below normal severity. The low danger is reflected in record low numbers of fires reported by forestry offices of both States and by the U. S. Forest Service for their respective protection areas. Although spring and fall fire weather was near normal, a rain-producing...

Analysis of the ability of large-scale reanalysis data to define Siberian fire danger in preparation for future fire prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Amber; Westberg, David; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.; McRae, Douglas; Jin, Ji-Zhong; Sukhinin, Anatoly

2010-05-01

Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under current climate change scenarios. Therefore, changes in fire regimes have the potential to compel ecological change, moving ecosystems more quickly towards equilibrium with a new climate. The ultimate goal of this research is to assess the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to define fire weather danger and fire regimes, so that large-scale data can be confidently used to predict future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data, like that available from current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. In this talk, we intent to: (1) evaluate Fire Weather Indices (FWI) derived using reanalysis and interpolated station data; (2) discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using these distinct data sources; and (3) highlight established relationships between large-scale fire weather data, area burned, active fires and ecosystems burned. Specifically, the Canadian Forestry Service (CFS) Fire Weather Index (FWI) will be derived using: (1) NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) large-scale reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data; and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-interpolated data. Requirements of the FWI are local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. GEOS-4 reanalysis and NCDC station-interpolated fire weather indices are generally consistent spatially, temporally and quantitatively. Additionally, increased fire activity coincides with increased FWI ratings in both data products. Relationships have been established between large-scale FWI to area burned, fire frequency, ecosystem types, and these can be use to estimate historic and future fire regimes.

Effects of weathering on performance of intumescent coatings for structure fire protection in the wildland-urban interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahrani, Babak

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weathering on the performance of intumescent fire-retardant coatings on wooden products. The weathering effects included primary (solar irradiation, moisture, and temperature) and secondary (environmental contaminants) parameters at various time intervals. Wildland urban interface (WUI) fires have been an increasing threat to lives and properties. Existing solutions to mitigate the damages caused by WUI fires include protecting the structures from ignition and minimizing the fire spread from one structure to another. These solutions can be divided into two general categories: active fire protection systems and passive fire protection systems. Passive systems are either using pre-applied wetting agents (water, gel, or foam) or adding an extra layer (composite wraps or coatings). Fire-retardant coating treatment methods can be divided into impregnated (penetrant) and intumescent categories. Intumescent coatings are easy to apply, economical, and have a better appearance in comparison to other passive fire protection methods, and are the main focus of this study. There have been limited studies conducted on the application of intumescent coatings on wooden structures and their performance after long-term weathering exposure. The main concerns of weathering effects are: 1) the reduction of ignition resistance of the coating layer after weathering; and 2) the fire properties of coatings after weathering since coatings might contribute as a combustible fuel and assist the fire growth after ignition. Three intumescent coatings were selected and exposed to natural weathering conditions in three different time intervals. Two types of tests were performed on the specimens: a combustibility test consisted of a bench-scale performance evaluation using a Cone Calorimeter, and a thermal decomposition test using Simultaneous Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) method (also known as SDT). For each coating type and weathering period, three different radiative heat flux levels were used in the combustibility tests. Data obtained from the tests, including flammability and thermal properties, were gathered, analyzed, and compared to non-weathered specimens. The results revealed visible effects of weathering on pre (and up to)-ignition flammability and intumescent properties, especially decreases in Time-to-Ignition (TTI), Time-to-Intumescence (tintu.), and (maximum) Intumescence Height (Hintu.) values in weathered specimens. These results showed that the ignition resistance of the coating layers decreased after weathering exposure. On the other hand, the obtained results from weathered specimens for the post-ignition flammability properties, especially Peak Heat Release Rate (PHRR) and Effective Heat of Combustion (EHC) did not show a significant difference in comparison to the non-weathered samples. These results demonstrated that the weathered coating layer would not likely to act as an additional combustible fuel to increase fire spread.

Meteorological Controls on Biomass Burning During Santa Ana Events in Southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veraverbeke, Sander; Capps, Scott; Hook, Simon J.; Randerson, James T.; Jin, Yufang; Hall, Alex

2013-01-01

Fires occurring during Santa Ana (SA) events in southern California are driven by extreme fire weather characterized by high temperatures, low humidities, and high wind speeds. We studied the controls on burned area and carbon emissions during two intensive SA burning periods in 2003 and 2007. We therefore used remote sensing data in parallel with fire weather simulations of the Weather and Regional Forecast model. Total carbon emissions were approximately 1800 gigagrams in 2003 and 900 gigagrams in 2007, based on a daily burned area and a fire emission model that accounted for spatial variability in fuel loads and combustion completeness. On a regional scale, relatively strong positive correlations were found between the daily Fosberg fire weather index and burned area/emissions (probability is less than 0.01). Our analysis provides a quantitative assessment of relationships between fire activity and weather during severe SA fires in southern California.

Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling

2008-01-01

The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...

Economic Impact of Fire Weather Forecasts

Treesearch

Don Gunasekera; Graham Mills; Mark Williams

2006-01-01

Southeastern Australia, where the State of Victoria is located is regarded as one of the most fire prone areas in the world. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology provides fire weather services in Victoria as part of a national framework for the provision of such services. These services range from fire weather warnings to special forecasts for hazard reduction burns....

Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States

Treesearch

LaWen Hollingsworth; James Menakis

2010-01-01

This project mapped wildland fire potential (WFP) for the conterminous United States by using the large fire simulation system developed for Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System. The large fire simulation system, referred to here as LFSim, consists of modules for weather generation, fire occurrence, fire suppression, and fire growth modeling. Weather was generated with...

Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Taylor, Steve W.; Candau, Jean-Noël; Stralberg, Diana; Marshall, Ginny A.; Little, John M.; Flannigan, Mike D.

2017-02-01

In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating ‘spread days’ to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada’s forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.

Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

PubMed

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

Modelling the Meteorological Forest Fire Niche in Heterogeneous Pyrologic Conditions

PubMed Central

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition. PMID:25679957

Using fire-weather forecasts and local weather observations in predicting burning index for individual fire-danger stations.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1958-01-01

Any agency engaged in forest-fire control needs accurate weather forecasts and systematic procedures for making the best use of predicted and reported weather information. This study explores the practicability of using several tabular and graphical aids for converting area forecasts and local observations of relative humidity and wind speed into predicted values for...

Comparative ratings of 1951 forest fire weather in western Oregon.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer; Robert Kirkpatrick

1951-01-01

The 1951 forest fire weather in western Oregon is generally conceded to have been unusually severe. In order to compare this season with others, this report uses a scheme for rating fire seasons recently developed by the Fire Research section of the Experiment Station, The rating is based on indices of three weather characteristics which generally control burning...

Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

Treesearch

W. Matt Jolly; Mark A. Cochrane; Patrick H. Freeborn; Zachary A. Holden; Timothy J. Brown; Grant J. Williamson; David M. J. S. Bowman

2015-01-01

Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have...

The efficacy of fuel treatment in mitigating property loss during wildfires: Insights from analysis of the severity of the catastrophic fires in 2009 in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Price, Owen F; Bradstock, Ross A

2012-12-30

Treatment of fuel (e.g. prescribed fire, logging) in fire-prone ecosystems is done to reduce risks to people and their property but effects require quantification, particularly under severe weather conditions when the destructive potential of fires on human infrastructure is maximised. We analysed the relative effects of fuel age (i.e. indicative of the effectiveness of prescribed fire) and logging on remotely sensed (SPOT imagery) severity of fires which occurred in eucalypt forests in Victoria, Australia in 2009. These fires burned under the most severe weather conditions recorded in Australia and caused large losses of life and property. Statistical models of the probability of contrasting extremes of severity (crown fire versus fire confined to the understorey) were developed based on effects of fuel age, logging, weather, topography and forest type. Weather was the primary influence on severity, though it was reduced at low fuel ages in Moderate but not Catastrophic, Very High or Low fire-weather conditions. Probability of crown fires was higher in recently logged areas than in areas logged decades before, indicating likely ineffectiveness as a fuel treatment. The results suggest that recently burnt areas (up to 5-10 years) may reduce the intensity of the fire but not sufficiently to increase the chance of effective suppression under severe weather conditions. Since house loss was most likely under these conditions (67%), effects of prescribed burning across landscapes on house loss are likely to be small when weather conditions are severe. Fuel treatments need to be located close to houses in order to effectively mitigate risk of loss. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fire Weather Products for Public and Emergency Use: Extending Professional Resources to the Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, M. A.; Schranz, S.; Kriederman, L.

2012-12-01

Large wildfires require significant resources to combat, including dedicated meteorological support to provide accurate and timely forecasts to assist incident commanders in making decisions for logistical and tactical firefighting operations. Smaller fires often require the same capabilities for understanding fire and the fire weather environment, but access to needed resources and tools is often limited due to technical, training, or education limitations. Providing fire weather information and training to incident commanders for smaller wildfires should prove to enhance firefighting capabilities and improve safety for both firefighters and for the public as well. One of the premier tools used to support fire weather forecasting for the largest wildfires is the FX-Net product, a thin-client version of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System used by NWS incident meteorologists (IMETs) deployed to large wildfires. We present results from an ongoing project to extend the sophisticated products available from FX-Net to more accessible and mobile software platforms, such as Google Earth. The project involves input from IMETs and fire commanders to identify the key parameters used in fighting wildfires, and involves a large training component for fire responders to utilize simplified products to improve understanding of fire weather in the context of firefighting operations.

Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

Treesearch

Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

2004-01-01

Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

Forest fire weather in western Oregon and western Washington in 1956.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1956-01-01

The 1956 fire season will be remembered for the record number of lightning storms in nearly all parts of the area. In other respects, fire-weather severity was slightly below the average of the previous ten years. In western Oregon, fire weather over the entire season (April through October) was slightly less severe than in 1955, while in western Washington it was...

Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.;

Topographic and fire weather controls of fire refugia in forested ecosystems of northwestern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Haire, Sandra L.; Coop, Jonathan D.; Parisien, Marc-Andre; Whitman, Ellen; Chong, Geneva W.; Miller, Carol

2016-01-01

for seven study fires that burned in conifer-dominated forested landscapes of the Western Cordillera of Canada between 2001 and 2014. We fit nine models, each for distinct levels of fire weather and terrain ruggedness. Our framework revealed that the predictability and abundance of fire refugia varied among these environmental settings. We observed highest predictability under moderate fire weather conditions and moderate terrain ruggedness (ROC-AUC = 0.77), and lowest predictability in flatter landscapes and under high fire weather conditions (ROC-AUC = 0.63–0.68). Catchment slope, local aspect, relative position, topographic wetness, topographic convergence, and local slope all contributed to discriminating where refugia occur but the relative importance of these topographic controls differed among environments. Our framework allows us to characterize the predictability of contemporary fire refugia across multiple environmental settings and provides important insights for ecosystem resilience, wildfire management, conservation planning, and climate change adaptation.

Mapping fire probability and severity in a Mediterranean area using different weather and fuel moisture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arca, B.; Salis, M.; Bacciu, V.; Duce, P.; Pellizzaro, G.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.

2009-04-01

Although in many countries lightning is the main cause of ignition, in the Mediterranean Basin the forest fires are predominantly ignited by arson, or by human negligence. The fire season peaks coincide with extreme weather conditions (mainly strong winds, hot temperatures, low atmospheric water vapour content) and high tourist presence. Many works reported that in the Mediterranean Basin the projected impacts of climate change will cause greater weather variability and extreme weather conditions, with drier and hotter summers and heat waves. At long-term scale, climate changes could affect the fuel load and the dead/live fuel ratio, and therefore could change the vegetation flammability. At short-time scale, the increase of extreme weather events could directly affect fuel water status, and it could increase large fire occurrence. In this context, detecting the areas characterized by both high probability of large fire occurrence and high fire severity could represent an important component of the fire management planning. In this work we compared several fire probability and severity maps (fire occurrence, rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length) obtained for a study area located in North Sardinia, Italy, using FlamMap simulator (USDA Forest Service, Missoula). FlamMap computes the potential fire behaviour characteristics over a defined landscape for given weather, wind and fuel moisture data. Different weather and fuel moisture scenarios were tested to predict the potential impact of climate changes on fire parameters. The study area, characterized by a mosaic of urban areas, protected areas, and other areas subject to anthropogenic disturbances, is mainly composed by fire-prone Mediterranean maquis. The input themes needed to run FlamMap were input as grid of 10 meters; the wind data, obtained using a computational fluid-dynamic model, were inserted as gridded file, with a resolution of 50 m. The analysis revealed high fire probability and severity in most of the areas, and therefore a high potential danger. The FlamMap outputs and the derived fire probability maps can be used in decision support systems for fire spread and behaviour and for fire danger assessment with actual and future fire regimes.

Medium-range fire weather forecasts

Treesearch

J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

1991-01-01

The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

Fire weather and behavior of the Little Sioux fire.

Treesearch

Rodney W. Sando; Donald A. Haines

1972-01-01

In mid-May 1971, a northern Minnesota fire burned almost 15,000 acres of forest land. The extreme fire behavior it exhibited was the product of a number of described features. This paper documents the attendant fuel and weather conditions.

Wildland fire as a self-regulating mechanism: the role of previous burns and weather in limiting fire progression

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Lisa M. Holsinger; Carol Miller; Cara R. Nelson

2015-01-01

Theory suggests that natural fire regimes can result in landscapes that are both self-regulating and resilient to fire. For example, because fires consume fuel, they may create barriers to the spread of future fires, thereby regulating fire size. Top-down controls such as weather, however, can weaken this effect. While empirical examples demonstrating this pattern-...

A landscape-scale wildland fire study using coupled weather-wildland fire model and airborne remote sensing

Treesearch

J.L. Coen; Philip Riggan

2011-01-01

We examine the Esperanza fire, a Santa Ana-driven wildland fire that occurred in complex terrain in spatially heterogeneous chaparral fuels, using airborne remote sensing imagery from the FireMapper thermal-imaging radiometer and a coupled weather-wildland fire model. The radiometer data maps fire intensity and is used to evaluate the error in the extent of the...

Development of a Global Fire Weather Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.;

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Restoring surface fire stabilizes forest carbon under extreme fire weather in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Daniel J. Krofcheck; Matthew D. Hurteau; Robert M. Scheller; E. Louise Loudermilk

2017-01-01

Climate change in the western United States has increased the frequency of extreme fire weather events and is projected to increase the area burned by wildfire in the coming decades. This changing fire regime, coupled with increased high-severity fire risk from a legacy of fire exclusion, could destabilize forest carbon (C), decrease net ecosystem exchange (...

Modification of the Fosberg fire weather index to include drought

Treesearch

Scott L. Goodrick

2002-01-01

The Fosberg fire weather index is a simple tool for evaluating the potential influence of weather on a wildland fire based on temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. A modification to this index that includes the impact of precipitation is proposed. The Keetch-Byram drought index is used to formulate a 'fuel availability' factor that modifies the...

The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the wildland urban interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-12-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the wildland urban interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of the 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire's weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting >2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances >10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). Overall, 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the Wildland Urban Interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-09-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting more than 2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances further than 10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

Examining the relative effects of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatment on fire behaviour--a simulation study.

PubMed

Penman, T D; Collins, L; Price, O F; Bradstock, R A; Metcalf, S; Chong, D M O

2013-12-15

Large budgets are spent on both suppression and fuel treatments in order to reduce the risk of wildfires. There is little evidence regarding the relative contribution of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfires. Here we undertake a simulation study in the Sydney Basin, Australia, to examine this question using a fire behaviour model (Phoenix Rapidfire). Results of the study indicate that fire behaviour is most strongly influenced by fire weather. Suppression has a greater influence on whether a fire reaches 5 ha in size compared to fuel treatments. In contrast, fuel treatments have a stronger effect on the fire size and maximum distance the fire travels. The study suggests that fire management agencies will receive additional benefits from fuel treatment if they are located in areas which suppression resources can respond rapidly and attempt to contain the fires. No combination of treatments contained all fires, and the proportion of uncontained fires increased under more severe fire weather when the greatest number of properties are lost. Our study highlights the importance of alternative management strategies to reduce the risk of property loss. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systems Study of an Automated Fire Weather Data System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nishioka, K.

1974-01-01

A sensor system applicable to an automated weather station was developed. The sensor provides automated fire weather data which correlates with manual readings. The equipment and methods are applied as an aid to the surveillance and protection of wildlands from fire damage. The continuous readings provided by the sensor system make it possible to determine the periods of time that the wilderness areas should be closed to the public to minimize the possibilities of fire.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management.

PubMed

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G; McIntire, Eliot J B

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover's direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate-fire-fuels systems.

Weather Observation Systems and Efficiency of Fighting Forest Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabarov, N.; Moltchanova, E.; Obersteiner, M.

2007-12-01

Weather observation is an essential component of modern forest fire management systems. Satellite and in-situ based weather observation systems might help to reduce forest loss, human casualties and destruction of economic capital. In this paper, we develop and apply a methodology to assess the benefits of various weather observation systems on reductions of burned area due to early fire detection. In particular, we consider a model where the air patrolling schedule is determined by a fire hazard index. The index is computed from gridded daily weather data for the area covering parts Spain and Portugal. We conduct a number of simulation experiments. First, the resolution of the original data set is artificially reduced. The reduction of the total forest burned area associated with air patrolling based on a finer weather grid indicates the benefit of using higher spatially resolved weather observations. Second, we consider a stochastic model to simulate forest fires and explore the sensitivity of the model with respect to the quality of input data. The analysis of combination of satellite and ground monitoring reveals potential cost saving due to a "system of systems effect" and substantial reduction in burned area. Finally, we estimate the marginal improvement schedule for loss of life and economic capital as a function of the improved fire observing system.

Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Ashley E. Van Beusekom; William A. Gould; A. Carolina Monmany; Azad Henareh Khalyani; Maya Quiñones; Stephen J. Fain; Maria José Andrade-Núñez; Grizelle González

2018-01-01

Abstract Assessing the relationships between weather patterns and the likelihood of fire occurrence in the Caribbean has not been as central to climate change research as in temperate regions, due in part to the smaller extent of individual fires. However, the cumulative effect of small frequent fires can shape large landscapes, and fire-prone ecosystems are abundant...

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management

PubMed Central

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G.; McIntire, Eliot J. B.

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover’s direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate–fire–fuels systems. PMID:28609467

Introducing the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, R. D.

2015-12-01

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations beginning in 1980 called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded datasets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC=1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously-identified in MERRA's precipitation and reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED is being used by researchers around the world for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at large scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere-ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models. These applications will be discussed. More information on GFWED can be found at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/impacts/gfwed/

1955 forest fire weather in western Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1955-01-01

While fire-weather severity remained low for the third successive year in western Washington, 1955 brought near normal fire weather to western Oregon for the first time since 1952. Temperatures were cooler than normal throughout the season in both half States, with record or near record lows for April, May, and July. April, July, and October were unusually rainy while...

The potential impact of regional climate change on fire weather in the United States

Treesearch

Ying Tang; Shiyuan Zhong; Lifeng Luo; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Julie. Winkler

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the frequency and severity of atmospheric conditions conducive for wildfires. In this study, we assess potential changes in fire weather conditions for the contiguous United States using the Haines Index (HI), a fire weather index that has been employed operationally to detect atmospheric conditions favorable for large and erratic...

Post-fire vegetation and fuel development influences fire severity patterns in reburns.

PubMed

Coppoletta, Michelle; Merriam, Kyle E; Collins, Brandon M

2016-04-01

In areas where fire regimes and forest structure have been dramatically altered, there is increasing concern that contemporary fires have the potential to set forests on a positive feedback trajectory with successive reburns, one in which extensive stand-replacing fire could promote more stand-replacing fire. Our study utilized an extensive set of field plots established following four fires that occurred between 2000 and 2010 in the northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA that were subsequently reburned in 2012. The information obtained from these field plots allowed for a unique set of analyses investigating the effect of vegetation, fuels, topography, fire weather, and forest management on reburn severity. We also examined the influence of initial fire severity and time since initial fire on influential predictors of reburn severity. Our results suggest that high- to moderate-severity fire in the initial fires led to an increase in standing snags and shrub vegetation, which in combination with severe fire weather promoted high-severity fire effects in the subsequent reburn. Although fire behavior is largely driven by weather, our study demonstrates that post-fire vegetation composition and structure are also important drivers of reburn severity. In the face of changing climatic regimes and increases in extreme fire weather, these results may provide managers with options to create more fire-resilient ecosystems. In areas where frequent high-severity fire is undesirable, management activities such as thinning, prescribed fire, or managed wildland fire can be used to moderate fire behavior not only prior to initial fires, but also before subsequent reburns.

Fire occurrence prediction in the Mediterranean: Application to Southern France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papakosta, Panagiota; Öster, Jan; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel

2013-04-01

The areas that extend in the Mediterranean basin have a long fire history. The climatic conditions of wet winters and long hot drying summers support seasonal fire events, mainly ignited by humans. Extended land fragmentation hinders fire spread, but seasonal winds (e.g. Mistral in South France or Meltemia in Greece) can drive fire events to become uncontrollable fires with severe impacts to humans and the environment [1]. Prediction models in these areas should incorporate both natural and anthropogenic factors. Several indices have been developed worldwide to express fire weather conditions. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is currently adapted by many countries in Europe due to the easily observable input weather parameters (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation) and the easy-to-implement algorithms of the Canadian formulation describing fuel moisture relations [2],[3]. Human influence can be expressed directly by human presence (e.g. population density) or indirectly by proxy indicators (e.g. street density [4], land cover type). The random nature of fire occurrences and the uncertainties associated with the influencing factors motivate probabilistic prediction models. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model of fire occurrence probability under natural and anthropogenic influence in Southern France and to compare it with earlier developed predictions in other Mediterranean areas [5]. Fire occurrence is modeled as a Poisson process. Two interpolation methods (Kriging and Inverse Distance Weighting) are used to interpolate daily weather observations from weather stations to a 1 km² spatial grid and their results are compared. Poisson regression estimates the parameters of the model and the resulting daily predictions are provided in terms of maps displaying fire occurrence rates. The model is applied to the regions Provence-Alpes-Côtes D'Azur und Languedoc-Roussillon in the South of France. Weather data are obtained from the German and French Weather Services (Deutscher Wetterdienst and Météo-France). Historical fire events are taken from Prométhée database. Time series 2000-2010 are used as learning data and data from 2011 is used as the validation data. The resulting model can support real-time fire risk estimation for improved allocation of firefighting resources and planning of other mitigation actions. [1] Keeley, J.E.; Bond, W.J.; Bradstock, R.A.; Pausas, J.G.; Rundel, P.W. (2012): Fire in Mediterranean ecosystems: ecology, evolution and management. Cambridge University Press, New York, USA, pp.515 [2] Lawson, B.D.; Armitage, O.B. (2008): Weather Guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. [3] Van Wagner, C.E.; Pickett, T.L. (1985): Equations and FORTRAN Program for the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Forestry Technical Report 33. Canadian Forestry Service, Government of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada [4] Syphard, A.D.; Radeloff, V.C.; Keuler, N.S.; Taylor, R.S.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Clayton, M.K. (2008): Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 17, pp.602-613 [5] Papakosta, P.; Klein, F.; König, S.; Straub, D. (2012): Linking spatio-temporal data to the Fire Weather Index to estimate the probability of wildfire in the Mediterranean. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol.14, EGU2012-12737, EGU General Assembly 2012

FireMap: A Web Tool for Dynamic Data-Driven Predictive Wildfire Modeling Powered by the WIFIRE Cyberinfrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, J.; Crawl, D.; Artes, T.; Cowart, C.; de Callafon, R.; DeFanti, T.; Graham, J.; Smarr, L.; Srivas, T.; Altintas, I.

2016-12-01

The NSF-funded WIFIRE project has designed a web-based wildfire modeling simulation and visualization tool called FireMap. The tool executes FARSITE to model fire propagation using dynamic weather and fire data, configuration settings provided by the user, and static topography and fuel datasets already built-in. Using GIS capabilities combined with scalable big data integration and processing, FireMap enables simple execution of the model with options for running ensembles by taking the information uncertainty into account. The results are easily viewable, sharable, repeatable, and can be animated as a time series. From these capabilities, users can model real-time fire behavior, analyze what-if scenarios, and keep a history of model runs over time for sharing with collaborators. Firemap runs FARSITE with national and local sensor networks for real-time weather data ingestion and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather for forecasted weather. The HRRR is a NOAA/NCEP operational weather prediction system comprised of a numerical forecast model and an analysis/assimilation system to initialize the model. It is run with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, has 50 vertical levels, and has a temporal resolution of 15 minutes. The HRRR requires an Environmental Data Exchange (EDEX) server to receive the feed and generate secondary products out of it for the modeling. UCSD's EDEX server, funded by NSF, makes high-resolution weather data available to researchers worldwide and enables visualization of weather systems and weather events lasting months or even years. The high-speed server aggregates weather data from the University Consortium for Atmospheric Research by way of a subscription service from the Consortium called the Internet Data Distribution system. These features are part of WIFIRE's long term goals to build an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. Although Firemap is a research product of WIFIRE, developed in collaboration with a number of fire departments, the tool is operational in pilot form for providing big data-driven predictive fire spread modeling. Most recently, FireMap was used for situational awareness in the July 2016 Sand Fire by LA City and LA County Fire Departments.

Linking Satellite-Derived Fire Counts to Satellite-Derived Weather Data in Fire Prediction Models to Forecast Extreme Fires in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westberg, David; Soja, Amber; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.

2010-05-01

Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Boreal systems contain the largest pool of terrestrial carbon, and Russia holds 2/3 of the global boreal forests. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under climate change scenarios. Meteorological parameters influence fire danger and fire is a catalyst for ecosystem change. Therefore to predict fire weather and ecosystem change, we must understand the factors that influence fire regimes and at what scale these are viable. Our data consists of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC)-derived fire weather indices (FWI) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-derived FWI on a domain from 50°N-80°N latitude and 70°E-170°W longitude and the fire season from April through October for the years of 1999, 2002, and 2004. Both of these are calculated using the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) FWI, which is based on local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. The large-scale (1°) LaRC product uses NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GEOS-4/GPCP) data to calculate FWI. CFS Natural Resources Canada uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to interpolate NCDC station data and calculate FWI. We compare the LaRC GEOS- 4/GPCP FWI and CFS NCDC FWI based on their fraction of 1° grid boxes that contain satellite-derived fire counts and area burned to the domain total number of 1° grid boxes with a common FWI category (very low to extreme). These are separated by International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) 1°x1° resolution vegetation types to determine and compare fire regimes in each FWI/ecosystem class and to estimate the fraction of each of the 18 IGBP ecosystems burned, which are dependent on the FWI. On days with fire counts, the domain total of 1°x1° grid boxes with and without daily fire counts and area burned are totaled. The fraction of 1° grid boxes with fire counts and area burned to the total number of 1° grid boxes having common FWI category and vegetation type are accumulated, and a daily mean for the burning season is calculated. The mean fire counts and mean area burned plots appear to be well related. The ultimate goal of this research is to assess the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to assess fire weather danger and fire regimes, so these data can be confidently used to predict future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data. Specifically, we related large-scale fire weather, area burned, and the amount of fire-induced ecosystem change. Both the LaRC and CFS FWI showed gradual linear increase in fraction of grid boxes with fire counts and area burned with increasing FWI category, with an exponential increase in the higher FWI categories in some cases, for the majority of the vegetation types. Our analysis shows a direct correlation between increased fire activity and increased FWI, independent of time or the severity of the fire season. During normal and extreme fire seasons, we noticed the fraction of fire counts and area burned per 1° grid box increased with increasing FWI rating. Given this analysis, we are confident large-scale weather and climate data, in this case from the GEOS-4 reanalysis and the GPCP data sets, can be used to accurately assess future fire potential. This increases confidence in the ability of large-scale IPCC weather and climate scenarios to predict future fire regimes in boreal regions.

Impacts of changing fire weather conditions on reconstructed trends in U.S. wildland fire activity from 1979 to 2014

Treesearch

Patrick H. Freeborn; W. Matt Jolly; Mark A. Cochrane

2016-01-01

One component of climate‐fire interactions is the relationship between weather conditions concurrent with burning (i.e., fire danger) and the magnitude of fire activity. Here daily environmental conditions are associated with daily observations of fire activity within ecoregions across the continental United States (CONUS) by aligning the latter 12 years of a 36 year...

Weather, fuels, fire behavior, plumes, and smoke - the nexus of fire meteorology

Treesearch

Scott L. Goodrick; Timothy J. Brown; W. Matt Jolly

2017-01-01

In a pair of review papers, Potter (2012a, 2012b) summarized the significant fire weather research findings over about the past hundred years. Our scientific understanding of wildland fire-atmosphere interactions has evolved: from simple correlations supporting the notion that hot, dry, and windy conditions lead to more intense fires, we have moved towards more...

Effectiveness of fire-retardant treatments for shingles after 10 years of outdoor weathering

Treesearch

S. L. LeVan; C. A. Holmes

Some building codes require wood shingles to be fire-retardant treated. Because exterior fire-retardant treatments are subjected to weathering, treatment durability and leach resistance are critical for insuring adequate fire protection. We examined the effectiveness of various fire-retardant treatments on wood after 0, 2, 5, and 10 years of outdoor exposure. We used a...

Characterization of fire regime in Sardinia (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Mastinu, S.; Masala, F.; Sirca, C.; Spano, D.

2012-12-01

In the last decades, a number of Authors highlighted the crucial role of forest fires within Mediterranean ecosystems, with impacts both negative and positive on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In Sardinia (Italy), the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, forest fires are perceived as one of the main environmental and social problems, and data are showing that the situation is worsening especially within the rural-urban peripheries and the increasing number of very large forest fires. The need for information concerning forest fire regime has been pointed out by several Authors (e.g. Rollins et al., 2002), who also emphasized the importance of understanding the factors (such as weather/climate, socio-economic, and land use) that determine spatial and temporal fire patterns. These would be used not only as a baseline to predict the climate change effect on forest fires, but also as a fire management and mitigation strategy. The main aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the last three decades (1980-2010). For the analyzed period, fire statistics were provided by the Sardinian Forest Service (CFVA - Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale), while weather data for eight weather stations were obtained from the web site www.tutiempo.it. For each station, daily series of precipitation, mean, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were available. The present study firstly analyzed fire statistics (burned area and number of fires) according to the main fire regime characteristics (seasonality, fire return interval, fire incidence, fire size distribution). Then, fire and weather daily values were averaged to obtain monthly, seasonal and annual values, and a set of parametric and not parametric statistical tests were used to analyze the fire-weather relationships. Results showed a high inter- and intra-annual variability, also considering the different type of affected vegetation. As for other Mediterranean areas, a smaller number of large fires caused a high proportion of burned area. Land cover greatly influenced fire occurrence and fire size distribution across the landscape. Furthermore, fire activity (number of fires and area burned) showed significant correlations with weather variables, especially summer precipitation and wind, which seemed to drive the fire seasons and the fire propagation, respectively.

Forest fire weather in western Oregon and western Washington in 1957.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1957-01-01

Severity of 1957 fire weather west of the Cascade Range summit in Oregon and Washington was near the average of the previous 10 years. The season (April 1 through October 31) was slightly more severe than 1956 in western Oregon and about the same as 1956 in western Washington. Spring fire weather was near average severity in both western Washington and western Oregon....

Static and dynamic controls on fire activity at moderate spatial and temporal scales in the Alaskan boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barrett, Kirsten; Loboda, Tatiana; McGuire, A. David; Genet, Hélène; Hoy, Elizabeth; Kasischke, Eric

2016-01-01

Wildfire, a dominant disturbance in boreal forests, is highly variable in occurrence and behavior at multiple spatiotemporal scales. New data sets provide more detailed spatial and temporal observations of active fires and the post-burn environment in Alaska. In this study, we employ some of these new data to analyze variations in fire activity by developing three explanatory models to examine the occurrence of (1) seasonal periods of elevated fire activity using the number of MODIS active fire detections data set (MCD14DL) within an 11-day moving window, (2) unburned patches within a burned area using the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire severity product, and (3) short-to-moderate interval (<60 yr) fires using areas of burned area overlap in the Alaska Large Fire Database. Explanatory variables for these three models included dynamic variables that can change over the course of the fire season, such as weather and burn date, as well as static variables that remain constant over a fire season, such as topography, drainage, vegetation cover, and fire history. We found that seasonal periods of high fire activity are associated with both seasonal timing and aggregated weather conditions, as well as the landscape composition of areas that are burning. Important static inputs to the model of seasonal fire activity indicate that when fire weather conditions are suitable, areas that typically resist fire (e.g., deciduous stands) may become more vulnerable to burning and therefore less effective as fire breaks. The occurrence of short-to-moderate interval fires appears to be primarily driven by weather conditions, as these were the only relevant explanatory variables in the model. The unique importance of weather in explaining short-to-moderate interval fires implies that fire return intervals (FRIs) will be sensitive to projected climate changes in the region. Unburned patches occur most often in younger stands, which may be related to a greater deciduous fraction of vegetation as well as lower fuel loads compared with mature stands. The fraction of unburned patches may therefore increase in response to decreasing FRIs and increased deciduousness in the region, or these may decrease if fire weather conditions become more severe.

FIREFAMILY 1988.

Treesearch

William A. Main; Donna M. Paananen; Robert E. Burgan

1990-01-01

This revised user`s guide will help fire managers interpret the output from FIREFAMILY, a computer program that uses historic weather data for fire planning. With the changes in the National Fire-Danger Rating System, all Forest Service units will need to rerun their historical weather data and use this publication to revise their fire plan. The guide describes...

A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain

2011-01-01

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...

Fire weather technology for fire agrometeorology operations

Treesearch

Francis Fujioka

2008-01-01

Even as the magnitude of wildfire problems increases globally, United Nations agencies are acting to mitigate the risk of wildfire disasters to members. Fire management organizations worldwide may vary considerably in operational scope, depending on the number and type of resources an organization manages. In any case, good fire weather information is vital. This paper...

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Towards Experimental Operational Fire Weather Prediction at Subseasonal to Seasonal Scales for Alaska Using the NMME Hindcasts and Realtime Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, A.; Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.; York, A.; Peng, P.; Brettschneider, B.; Thoman, R.; Jandt, R.; Ziel, R.; Branson, G.; Strader, M. H.; Alden, M. S.

2017-12-01

The summer 2004 and 2015 wildfires in Alaska were the two largest fire seasons on record since 1950 where approximately the land area of Massachusetts burned. The record fire year of 2004 resulted in 6.5 million acres burned while the 2015 wildfire season resulted in 5.2 million acres burned. In addition to the logistical cost of fighting fires and the loss of infrastructure, wildfires also lead to dangerous air quality in Alaska. Fires in Alaska result from lightning strikes coupled with persistent (extreme) dry warm conditions in remote areas with limited fire management and the seasonal climate/weather determine the extent of the fire season in Alaska. Advanced weather/climate outlooks for allocating staff and resources from days to a season are particularly needed by fire managers. However, there are no operational seasonal products currently for the Alaska region. Probabilistic forecasts of the expected seasonal climate/weather would aid tremendously in the planning process. Earlier insight of both lightening and fuel conditions would assist fire managers in planning resource allocation for the upcoming season. For fuel conditions, the state-of-the-art NMME (1982-2017) climate predictions were used to compute the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS). The CFFWIS is used by fire managers to forecast forest fires in Alaska. NMME forecast (March and May) based Buildup Index (BUI) values were underestimated compared to BUI based on reanalysis and station data, demonstrating the necessity for bias correction. Post processing of NMME data will include bias correction using the quantile mapping technique. This study will provide guidance as to the what are the best available products for anticipating the fire season.

An aid to streamlining fire-weather station networks

Treesearch

R. William Furman

1975-01-01

For reasons of economy it may be necessary to close one or several fire-weather stations in a protection area. Since it is logical to close those stations that will have the least impact on the ability of the fire manager to assess overall fire danger, it is desirable to know if there is duplication in monitoring fire climate, and to what degree. A method is proposed...

Combining turbulent kinetic energy and Haines Index predictions for fire-weather assessments

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bian

2007-01-01

The 24- to 72-hour fire-weather predictions for different regions of the United States are now readily available from the regional Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS) that were established as part of the U.S. National Fire Plan. These predictions are based on daily real-time MM5 model simulations of atmospheric conditions and fire-...

Seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Conditions for Wildland Fire Management in Alaska using NMME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.; Thoman, R.; York, A.; Ziel, R.

2016-12-01

The summer of 2015 was the second largest Alaska fire season since 1950 where approximately the land area of Massachusetts burned. The record fire year of 2004 resulted in 6.5 million acres burned and was costly from property loss (> 35M) and emergency personnel (> 17M). In addition to requiring significant resources, wildfire smoke impacts air quality in Alaska and downstream into North America. Fires in Alaska result from lightning strikes coupled with persistent (extreme) dry warm conditions in remote areas with limited fire management and the seasonal climate/weather determine the extent of the fire season in Alaska. Fire managers rely on weather/climate outlooks for allocating staff and resources from days to a season in advance. Though currently few tested products are available at the seasonal scale. Probabilistic forecasts of the expected seasonal climate/weather would aid tremendously in the planning process. Advanced knowledge of both lightning and fuel conditions would assist managers in planning resource allocation for the upcoming season. For fuel conditions, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) has been used since 1992 because it better suits the Alaska fire regime than the standard US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). This CFFWIS is based on early afternoon values of 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m winds and daily total precipitation. Extremes of these indices and the variables are used to calculate these indices will be defined in reference to fire weather for the boreal forest. The CFFWIS will be applied and evaluated for the NMME hindcasts. This study will evaluate the quality of the forecasts comparing the hindcast NMME CFFWIS to acres burned in Alaska. Spatial synoptic patterns in the NMME related to fire weather extremes will be constructed using self-organized maps and probabilities of occurrence will be evaluated against acres burned.

Weather, fuels, and topography impede wildland fire spread in western US landscapes

Treesearch

Lisa Holsinger; Sean A. Parks; Carol Miller

2016-01-01

As wildland fire activity continues to surge across the western US, it is increasingly important that we understand and quantify the environmental drivers of fire and how they vary across ecosystems. At daily to annual timescales, weather, fuels, and topography are known to influence characteristics such as area burned and fire severity. An understudied facet...

The potential predictability of fire danger provided by ECMWF forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giuseppe, Francesca

2017-04-01

The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), is currently being developed in the framework of the Copernicus Emergency Management Services to monitor and forecast fire danger in Europe. The system provides timely information to civil protection authorities in 38 nations across Europe and mostly concentrates on flagging regions which might be at high danger of spontaneous ignition due to persistent drought. The daily predictions of fire danger conditions are based on the US Forest Service National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), the Canadian forest service Fire Weather Index Rating System (FWI) and the Australian McArthur (MARK-5) rating systems. Weather forcings are provided in real time by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasting system. The global system's potential predictability is assessed using re-analysis fields as weather forcings. The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4) provides 11 years of observed burned areas from satellite measurements and is used as a validation dataset. The fire indices implemented are good predictors to highlight dangerous conditions. High values are correlated with observed fire and low values correspond to non observed events. A more quantitative skill evaluation was performed using the Extremal Dependency Index which is a skill score specifically designed for rare events. It revealed that the three indices were more skilful on a global scale than the random forecast to detect large fires. The performance peaks in the boreal forests, in the Mediterranean, the Amazon rain-forests and southeast Asia. The skill-scores were then aggregated at country level to reveal which nations could potentiallty benefit from the system information in aid of decision making and fire control support. Overall we found that fire danger modelling based on weather forecasts, can provide reasonable predictability over large parts of the global landmass.

Estimation of fire danger in Hawai'i using limited weather data and simulation

Treesearch

D.R. Weise; S.L. Stephens; F.M. Fujioka; T.J. Moody; J. Benoit

2010-01-01

The presence of fire in Hawai'i has increased with introduction of nonnative grasses. Fire danger estimation using the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) typically requires 5 to 10 yr of data to determine percentile weather values and fire activity. The U.S. Army Pōhakuloa Training Area in Hawai‘i is located in the interface zone between windward...

Assessment of Fire Occurrence and Future Fire Potential in Arctic Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H. F.; Jenkins, L. K.; Loboda, T. V.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Whitley, M. A.

2014-12-01

An analysis of the occurrence of fire in Alaskan tundra was completed using the relatively complete historical record of fire for the region from 1950 to 2013. Spatial fire data for Alaskan tundra regions were obtained from the Alaska Large Fire Database for the region defined from vegetation and ecoregion maps. A detailed presentation of fire records available for assessing the fire regime of the tundra regions of Alaska as well as results evaluating fire size, seasonality, and general geographic and temporal trends is included. Assessment of future fire potential was determined for three future climate scenarios at four locations across the Alaskan tundra using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) weather variables were used for historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) time periods. The database includes 908 fire points and 463 fire polygons within the 482,931 km2 of Alaskan tundra. Based on the polygon database 25,656 km2 (6,340,000 acres) has burned across the six tundra ecoregions since 1950. Approximately 87% of tundra fires start in June and July across all ecoregions. Combining information from the polygon and points data records, the estimated average fire size for fire in the Alaskan Arctic region is 28.1 km2 (7,070 acres), which is much smaller than in the adjacent boreal forest region, averaging 203 km2 for high fire years. The largest fire in the database is the Imuruk Basin Fire which burned 1,680 km2 in 1954 in the Seward Peninsula region (Table 1). Assessment of future fire potential shows that, in comparison with the historical fire record, fire occurrence in Alaskan tundra is expected to increase under all three climate scenarios. Occurrences of high fire weather danger (>10 FWI) are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude in all regions modeled. The changes in fire weather conditions are expected to vary from one region to another in seasonal occurrence as well as severity and frequency of high fire weather danger. While the Alaska Large Fire Database represents the best data available for the Alaskan Arctic, and is superior to many other regions around the world, particularly Arctic regions, these fire records need to be used with some caution due to the mixed origin and minimal validation of the data; this is reviewed in the presentation.

Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Hamish; Evans, Jason P.

2018-05-01

High-resolution projections of climate change impacts on fire weather conditions in southeast Australia out to 2080 are presented. Fire weather is represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble. Changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from - 337 (- 21%) to + 657 (+ 24%) in coastal areas and - 237 (- 12%) to + 1143 (+ 26%) in inland areas. A similar spread is projected in extreme FFDI values. In coastal regions, the number of prescribed burning days is projected to change from - 11 to + 10 in autumn and - 10 to + 3 in spring. Across the ensemble, the most significant increases in fire weather and decreases in prescribed burn windows are projected to take place in spring. Partial bias correction of FFDI leads to similar projections but with a greater spread, particularly in extreme values. The partially bias-corrected FFDI performs similarly to uncorrected FFDI compared to the observed annual cumulative FFDI (ensemble root mean square error spans 540 to 1583 for uncorrected output and 695 to 1398 for corrected) but is generally worse for FFDI values above 50. This emphasizes the need to consider inter-variable relationships when bias-correcting for complex phenomena such as fire weather. There is considerable uncertainty in the future trajectory of fire weather in southeast Australia, including the potential for less prescribed burning days and substantially greater fire danger in spring. Selecting climate models on the basis of multiple criteria can lead to more informative projections and allow an explicit exploration of uncertainty.

Weathering effects on fuel moisture sticks: corrections and recommendations.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; John S. Frost

1978-01-01

Describes response to weathering of 100-gram (1/2-inch) fuel moisture sticks over 6-month fire season in the Northeast. Presents a chart for correcting weathered-stick values and gives replacement recommendations for those sticks used in the National Fire Danger Rating System.

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Curt, Thomas; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Moron, Vincent; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2018-03-01

Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that had not been explored before and resulting from specific interactions between different types of drought and different fire weather types. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heat wave with a press drought intensified heat-induced fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and lead to a higher frequency of extremes wildfires events.

Intensifying postfire weather and biological invasion drive species loss in a Mediterranean-type biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Slingsby, Jasper A; Merow, Cory; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew; Allsopp, Nicky; Hall, Stuart; Kilroy Mollmann, Hayley; Turner, Ross; Wilson, Adam M; Silander, John A

2017-05-02

Prolonged periods of extreme heat or drought in the first year after fire affect the resilience and diversity of fire-dependent ecosystems by inhibiting seed germination or increasing mortality of seedlings and resprouting individuals. This interaction between weather and fire is of growing concern as climate changes, particularly in systems subject to stand-replacing crown fires, such as most Mediterranean-type ecosystems. We examined the longest running set of permanent vegetation plots in the Fynbos of South Africa (44 y), finding a significant decline in the diversity of plots driven by increasingly severe postfire summer weather events (number of consecutive days with high temperatures and no rain) and legacy effects of historical woody alien plant densities 30 y after clearing. Species that resprout after fire and/or have graminoid or herb growth forms were particularly affected by postfire weather, whereas all species were sensitive to invasive plants. Observed differences in the response of functional types to extreme postfire weather could drive major shifts in ecosystem structure and function such as altered fire behavior, hydrology, and carbon storage. An estimated 0.5 °C increase in maximum temperature tolerance of the species sets unique to each survey further suggests selection for species adapted to hotter conditions. Taken together, our results show climate change impacts on biodiversity in the hyperdiverse Cape Floristic Region and demonstrate an important interaction between extreme weather and disturbance by fire that may make flammable ecosystems particularly sensitive to climate change.

Contribution of human, climate and biophysical drivers to the spatial distribution of wildfires in a French Mediterranean area: where do wildfires start and spread?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent; Moebius, Flavia

2013-04-01

Understanding the contribution of biophysical and human drivers to the spatial distribution of fires at regional scale has many ecological and economical implications in a context of on-going global changes. However these fire drivers often interact in complex ways, such that disentangling and assessing the relative contribution of human vs. biophysical factors remains a major challenge. Indeed, the identification of biophysical conditions that promote fires are confused by the inherent stochasticity in fire occurrences and fire spread on the one hand and, by the influence of human factors -through both fire ignition and suppression - on the other. Moreover, different factors may drive fire ignition and fire spread, in such a way that the areas with the highest density of ignitions may not coincide with those where large fires occur. In the present study, we investigated the drivers of fires ignition and spread in a Mediterranean area of southern France. We used a 17 years fire database (the PROMETHEE database from 1989-2006) combined with a set of 8 explanatory variables describing the spatial pattern in ignitions, vegetation and fire weather. We first isolated the weather conditions affecting the fire occurrence and their spread using a statistical model of the weather/fuel water status for each fire event.. The results of these statistical models were used to map the fire weather in terms of average number of days with suitable conditions for burning. Then, we used Boosted regression trees (BRT) models to assess the relative importance of the different variables on the distribution of wildfire with different sizes and to assess the relationship between each variables and fire occurrence and spread probabilities. We found that human activities explained up to 50 % of the spatial distribution of fire ignitions (SDI). The distribution of large fire was chiefly explained by fuel characteristics (about 40%). Surprisingly, the weather indices explained only 20 % of the SDI and its contribution does no vary according to the size of considered fire events. These results suggest that changes in fuel characteristics and human settlements/ activities, rather than weather conditions are the most likely to modify the future distribution of fires in this Mediterranean area. These conclusions provide useful information on the scenarios that could arise from the interaction of changes in climate and land cover for the Mediterranean area in the near future.

Meteorological factors in the Quartz Creek forest fire

Treesearch

H. T. Gisborne

1927-01-01

It is not often that a large forest fire occurs conveniently near a weather station specially equipped for measuring forest-fire weather. The 13,000-acre Quartz Creek fire on the Kaniksu National Forest during the summer of 1936 was close enough to the Priest River Experimental Forest of the Northern Rocky Mountain Forest Experiment Station for the roar of the flumes...

Storm Prediction Center Product & Report Archives

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Current Watches Meso. Discussions Conv. Outlooks Tstm. Outlooks Fire Wx Outlooks XML logo RSS Feeds E-Mail Archived Fire Weather Outlooks To view fire weather outlooks for a previous day, type in the date you wish to retrieve (e.g. 140503 for May 3, 2014). Data available since June 4, 2002. 150101 Retrieve Fire

Development of a Statistical Validation Methodology for Fire Weather Indices

Treesearch

Brian E. Potter; Scott Goodrick; Tim Brown

2003-01-01

Fire managers and forecasters must have tools, such as fire indices, to summarize large amounts of complex information. These tools allow them to identify and plan for periods of elevated risk and/or wildfire potential. This need was once met using simple measures like relative humidity or maximum daily temperature (e.g., Gisborne, 1936) to describe fire weather, and...

Climatic variability of a fire-weather index based on turbulent kinetic energy and the Haines Index

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bian

2010-01-01

Combining the Haines Index (HI) with near-surface turbulent kinetic energy (TKEs) through a product of the two values (HITKEs) has shown promise as an indicator of the atmospheric potential for extreme and erratic fire behavior in the U.S. Numerical simulations of fire-weather evolution during past wildland fire episodes in...

Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

2011-12-01

Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of area impacted by fire from the total available area within a given value of the Fire Occurrence Index (FOI) increased from 9.e-06 at FOI < 3 to 28.e-06 at 25 < FOI <= 28. Additionally, the model has revealed a new important relationship between fire occurrence, anthropogenic activity, and fire weather. Data analysis has demonstrated that human activity can alter the expected weather/fire occurrence relationships and result in considerable modifications of fire regimes contrary to the assumed ecological parameters. Specifically, between 2001 and 2009 over 50% of total fire impacted area burned during the low fire danger conditions (Canadian Fire Weather Index < 5). These findings and the FOM capabilities offer a new theoretical construct and an advanced tool for assessing the potential impacts of climate changes on fire regimes, particularly within landscapes which are impacted strongly by human activities. Future development of the FOM will focus on ingesting and internal downscaling of climate variables produced by General or Regional Circulation Models to develop scenarios of potential future change in fire occurrence under the influence of projected climate change at the appropriate regional or landscape scales.

A comparative study of fire weather indices in a semiarid south-eastern Europe region. Case of study: Murcia (Spain).

PubMed

Pérez-Sánchez, Julio; Senent-Aparicio, Javier; Díaz-Palmero, José María; Cabezas-Cerezo, Juan de Dios

2017-07-15

Forest fires are an important distortion in forest ecosystems, linked to their development and whose effects proceed beyond the destruction of ecosystems and material properties, especially in semiarid regions. Prevention of forest fires has to lean on indices based on available parameters that quantify fire risk ignition and spreading. The present study was conducted to compare four fire weather indices in a semiarid region of 11,314km 2 located in southern Spain, characterised as being part of the most damaged area by fire in the Iberian Peninsula. The studied period comprises 3033 wildfires in the region during 15years (2000-2014), of which 80% are >100m 2 and 14% >1000m 2 , resulting around 40km 2 of burnt area in this period. The indices selected have been Angström Index, Forest Fire Drought Index, Forest Moisture Index and Fire Weather Index. Likewise, four selection methods have been applied to compare the results of the studied indices: Mahalanobis distance, percentile method, ranked percentile method and Relative Operating Characteristic curves (ROC). Angström index gives good results in the coastal areas with higher temperatures, low rainfall and wider range of variations while Fire Weather Index has better results in inland areas with higher rainfall, dense forest mass and fewer changes in meteorological conditions throughout the year. ROC space rejects all the indices except Fire Weather Index with good performance all over the region. ROC analysis ratios can be used to assess the success (or lack thereof) of fire indices; thus, it benefits operational wildfire predictions in semiarid regions similar to that of the case study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hawaiian Marine Reports

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(PHMO) Kohala (PHKM) South Point (PHWA) Forecasts Activity Planner Hawaii Marine Aviation Fire Weather (PHWA) Forecasts Activity Planner Hawaii Marine Aviation Fire Weather Local Graphics National Graphics

Analysis of weather condition influencing fire regime in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, Valentina; Masala, Francesco; Salis, Michele; Sirca, Costantino; Spano, Donatella

2014-05-01

Fires have a crucial role within Mediterranean ecosystems, with both negative and positive impacts on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In addition, several authors are in agreement suggesting that, during the past decades, changes on fire patterns have occurred, especially in terms of fire-prone areas expansion and fire season lengthening. Climate and weather are two of the main controlling agents, directly and indirectly, of fire regime influencing vegetation productivity, causing water stress, igniting fires through lightning, or modulating fire behavior through wind. On the other hand, these relationships could be not warranted in areas where most ignitions are caused by people (Moreno et al. 2009). Specific analyses of the driving forces of fire regime across countries and scales are thus still required in order to better anticipate fire seasons and also to advance our knowledge of future fire regimes. The objective of this work was to improve our knowledge of the relative effects of several weather variables on forest fires in Italy for the period 1985-2008. Meteorological data were obtained through the MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) database, interpolated at 25x25 km scale. Fire data were provided by the JRC (Join Research Center) and the CFVA (Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale, Sardinia). A hierarchical cluster analysis, based on fire and weather data, allowed the identification of six homogeneous areas in terms of fire occurrence and climate (pyro-climatic areas). Two statistical techniques (linear and non-parametric models) were applied in order to assess if inter-annual variability in weather pattern and fire events had a significant trend. Then, through correlation analysis and multi-linear regression modeling, we investigated the influence of weather variables on fire activity across a range of time- and spatial-scales. The analysis revealed a general decrease of both number of fires and burned area, although not everywhere with the same magnitude. Overall, regression models where highly significant (p<0.001), and the explained variance ranged from 36% to 80% for fire number and from 37% to 76% for burned area, depending on pyro-climatic area. Moreover, our results contributed in determining the relative importance of climate variables acting at different timescales as control on intrinsic (i.e. flammability and moisture) and extrinsic (i.e. fuel amount and structure) characteristics of vegetation, thus strongly influencing fire occurrence. The good performance of our models, especially in the most fire affected pyro-climatic areas of Italy, and the better understanding of the main driver of fire variability gained through this work could be of great help for fire management among the different pyro-climatic areas.

Identifying the Threshold of Dominant Controls on Fire Spread in a Boreal Forest Landscape of Northeast China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua; Yang, Jian; He, Hong S.

2013-01-01

The relative importance of fuel, topography, and weather on fire spread varies at different spatial scales, but how the relative importance of these controls respond to changing spatial scales is poorly understood. We designed a “moving window” resampling technique that allowed us to quantify the relative importance of controls on fire spread at continuous spatial scales using boosted regression trees methods. This quantification allowed us to identify the threshold value for fire size at which the dominant control switches from fuel at small sizes to weather at large sizes. Topography had a fluctuating effect on fire spread across the spatial scales, explaining 20–30% of relative importance. With increasing fire size, the dominant control switched from bottom-up controls (fuel and topography) to top-down controls (weather). Our analysis suggested that there is a threshold for fire size, above which fires are driven primarily by weather and more likely lead to larger fire size. We suggest that this threshold, which may be ecosystem-specific, can be identified using our “moving window” resampling technique. Although the threshold derived from this analytical method may rely heavily on the sampling technique, our study introduced an easily implemented approach to identify scale thresholds in wildfire regimes. PMID:23383247

Page not found

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) Kohala (PHKM) South Point (PHWA) Forecasts Activity Planner Hawaii Marine Aviation Fire Weather Local Activity Planner Hawaii Marine Aviation Fire Weather Local Graphics National Graphics Model Output Climate

FIREFAMILY: Fire planning with historic weather data.

Treesearch

William A. Main; Robert J. Straub; Donna M. Paananen

1982-01-01

This user's guide will help fire managers interpret the output from FIREFAMILY, a computer program that uses historic weather data for fire planning. The guide describes options within the program and explains various tables and graphs necessary for planning. It also provides details which computer specialists need to run the program.

Fire weather in western Oregon and western Washington in 1952 compared with other years.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1953-01-01

How did the potential burning conditions of the 1952 fire season compare with those of previous years? The answer is important to those who protect forests from fire. Knowing the relative severity of the burning conditions will help them judge the effectiveness of their fire protection programs. This paper reports ratings of the weather factors most closely related to...

Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

PubMed Central

Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.

2015-01-01

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of natural lightning ignitions should be useful as a basis for ecological fire management of humid savanna-grassland landscapes worldwide. PMID:25574667

Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

PubMed

Platt, William J; Orzell, Steve L; Slocum, Matthew G

2015-01-01

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of natural lightning ignitions should be useful as a basis for ecological fire management of humid savanna-grassland landscapes worldwide.

Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks

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Development of a fire weather index using meteorological observations within the Northeast United States

Treesearch

Michael J. Erickson; Joseph J. Charney; Brian A. Colle

2016-01-01

A fire weather index (FWI) is developed using wildfire occurrence data and Automated Surface Observing System weather observations within a subregion of the northeastern United States (NEUS) from 1999 to 2008. Average values of several meteorological variables, including near-surface temperature, relative humidity, dewpoint, wind speed, and cumulative daily...

Frequency of urban building fires as related to daily weather conditions

Treesearch

Arthur R. Pirsko; Wallace L. Fons

1956-01-01

Daily weather elements of precipitation, wind, mean temperature, relative humidity, and dew-point temperature for selected urban areas (approximately 850,000 population) in the United States are statistically analyzed to determine their correlation with daily number of building fires. The frequency of urban building fires is found to be significantly correlated with...

Probability fire weather forecasts .. show promise in 3-year trial

Treesearch

Paul G. Scowcroft

1970-01-01

Probability fire weather forecasts were compared with categorical and climatological forecasts in a trial in southern California during the 1965-1967 fire seasons. Equations were developed to express the reliability of forecasts and degree of skill shown by the forecaster. Evaluation of 336 daily reports suggests that probability forecasts were more reliable. For...

Learning Fire Weather--A Self-Study Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Bernadine A.

This self-study course was prepared specifically to be used with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agriculture Handbook 360, FIRE WEATHER...A GUIDE FOR APPLICATION OF METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION TO FOREST FIRE CONTROL OPERATIONS. It is designed not only to let the reader determine his comprehension of the text but also to develop…

Storm Prediction Center Storm Reports

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Using unplanned fires to help suppressing future large fires in Mediterranean forests.

PubMed

Regos, Adrián; Aquilué, Núria; Retana, Javier; De Cáceres, Miquel; Brotons, Lluís

2014-01-01

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000-2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18-22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change.

A synoptic climatology for forest fires in the NE US and future implications for GCM simulations

Treesearch

Yan Qing; Ronald Sabo; Yiqiang Wu; J.Y. Zhu

1994-01-01

We studied surface-pressure patterns corresponding to reduced precipitation, high evaporation potential, and enhanced forest-fire danger for West Virginia, which experienced extensive forest-fire damage in November 1987. From five years of daily weather maps we identified eight weather patterns that describe distinctive flow situations throughout the year. Map patterns...

Test of wind predictions for peak fire-danger stations in Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1957-01-01

Relative accuracy of several wind-speed forecasting methods was tested during the forest fire seasons of 1950 and 1951. For the study, three fire-weather forecast centers of the U. S. Weather Bureau prepared individual station forecasts for 11 peak stations within the national. forests of Oregon and Washington. These spot forecasts were considered...

Model Analyses and Guidance

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Severe fire weather and intensive forest management increase fire severity in a multi-ownership landscape.

PubMed

Zald, Harold S J; Dunn, Christopher J

2018-04-26

Many studies have examined how fuels, topography, climate, and fire weather influence fire severity. Less is known about how different forest management practices influence fire severity in multi-owner landscapes, despite costly and controversial suppression of wildfires that do not acknowledge ownership boundaries. In 2013, the Douglas Complex burned over 19,000 ha of Oregon & California Railroad (O&C) lands in Southwestern Oregon, USA. O&C lands are composed of a checkerboard of private industrial and federal forestland (Bureau of Land Management, BLM) with contrasting management objectives, providing a unique experimental landscape to understand how different management practices influence wildfire severity. Leveraging Landsat based estimates of fire severity (Relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio, RdNBR) and geospatial data on fire progression, weather, topography, pre-fire forest conditions, and land ownership, we asked (1) what is the relative importance of different variables driving fire severity, and (2) is intensive plantation forestry associated with higher fire severity? Using Random Forest ensemble machine learning, we found daily fire weather was the most important predictor of fire severity, followed by stand age and ownership, followed by topographic features. Estimates of pre-fire forest biomass were not an important predictor of fire severity. Adjusting for all other predictor variables in a general least squares model incorporating spatial autocorrelation, mean predicted RdNBR was higher on private industrial forests (RdNBR 521.85 ± 18.67 [mean ± SE]) vs. BLM forests (398.87 ± 18.23) with a much greater proportion of older forests. Our findings suggest intensive plantation forestry characterized by young forests and spatially homogenized fuels, rather than pre-fire biomass, were significant drivers of wildfire severity. This has implications for perceptions of wildfire risk, shared fire management responsibilities, and developing fire resilience for multiple objectives in multi-owner landscapes. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Using Unplanned Fires to Help Suppressing Future Large Fires in Mediterranean Forests

PubMed Central

Regos, Adrián; Aquilué, Núria; Retana, Javier; De Cáceres, Miquel; Brotons, Lluís

2014-01-01

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire–succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000–2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18–22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change. PMID:24727853

Analysis of the prescribed burning practice in the pine forest of northwestern Portugal.

PubMed

Fernandes, P; Botelho, H

2004-01-01

The ignition of low-intensity fires in the dormant season in the pine stands of north-western Portugal seeks to reduce the existing fuel hazard without compromising site quality. The purpose of this study is to characterise this practice and assess its effectiveness, based on information resulting from the normal monitoring process at the management level, and using operational guidelines, fire behaviour models and a newly developed method to classify prescribed fire severity. Although the region's humid climate strongly constrains the activity of prescribed fire, 87% of the fires analysed were undertaken under acceptable meteorological and fuel moisture conditions. In fact, most operations achieved satisfactory results. On average, prescribed fire reduces by 96% the potential intensity of a wildfire occurring under extreme weather conditions, but 36% of the treated sites would still require heavy fire fighting resources to suppress such fire, and 17% would still carry it in the tree canopy. Only 10% of the prescribed burns have an excessive impact on trees or the forest floor, while 89% (normal fire weather) or 59% (extreme fire weather) comply with both ecological integrity maintenance and wildfire protection needs. Improved planning and monitoring procedures are recommended in order to overcome the current deficiencies.

FGC Webinar: From Fires to Floods and Everything In Between

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Federal Green Challenge presentations from the April 2018 'Billion Dollar Weather Events' webinar From Fires to Floods and Everything in Between: How Federal Facilities Can Thrive in an Era of Billion Dollar Weather Events.

Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2017-12-01

Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

Modeling Future Fire danger over North America in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, P.; Paimazumder, D.; Done, J.; Flannigan, M.

2016-12-01

Fire danger ratings are used to determine wildfire potential due to weather and climate factors. The Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), incorporates temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation to give a daily fire danger rating that is used by wildfire management agencies in an operational context. Studies using GCM output have shown that future wildfire danger will increase in a warming climate. However, these studies are somewhat limited by the coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-400km) and temporal resolution (typically 6-hourly to monthly) of the model output. Future wildfire potential over North America based on FWI is calculated using output from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is used to downscale future climate scenarios from the bias-corrected Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under RCP8.5 scenarios at a spatial resolution of 36km. We consider five eleven year time slices: 1990-2000, 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. The dynamically downscaled simulation improves determination of future extreme weather by improving both spatial and temporal resolution over most GCM models. To characterize extreme fire weather we calculate annual numbers of spread days (days for which FWI > 19) and annual 99th percentile of FWI. Additionally, an extreme value analysis based on the peaks-over-threshold method allows us to calculate the return values for extreme FWI values.

Using satellite fire detection to calibrate components of the fire weather index system in Malaysia and Indonesia.

PubMed

Dymond, Caren C; Field, Robert D; Roswintiarti, Orbita; Guswanto

2005-04-01

Vegetation fires have become an increasing problem in tropical environments as a consequence of socioeconomic pressures and subsequent land-use change. In response, fire management systems are being developed. This study set out to determine the relationships between two aspects of the fire problems in western Indonesia and Malaysia, and two components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. The study resulted in a new method for calibrating components of fire danger rating systems based on satellite fire detection (hotspot) data. Once the climate was accounted for, a problematic number of fires were related to high levels of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code. The relationship between climate, Fine Fuel Moisture Code, and hotspot occurrence was used to calibrate Fire Occurrence Potential classes where low accounted for 3% of the fires from 1994 to 2000, moderate accounted for 25%, high 26%, and extreme 38%. Further problems arise when there are large clusters of fires burning that may consume valuable land or produce local smoke pollution. Once the climate was taken into account, the hotspot load (number and size of clusters of hotspots) was related to the Fire Weather Index. The relationship between climate, Fire Weather Index, and hotspot load was used to calibrate Fire Load Potential classes. Low Fire Load Potential conditions (75% of an average year) corresponded with 24% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 30% of the largest cluster. In contrast, extreme Fire Load Potential conditions (1% of an average year) corresponded with 30% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 58% of the maximum. Both Fire Occurrence Potential and Fire Load Potential calibrations were successfully validated with data from 2001. This study showed that when ground measurements are not available, fire statistics derived from satellite fire detection archives can be reliably used for calibration. More importantly, as a result of this work, Malaysia and Indonesia have two new sources of information to initiate fire prevention and suppression activities.

High-severity fire: evaluating its key drivers and mapping its probability across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parks, Sean A.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Panunto, Matthew H.; Jolly, W. Matt; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dillon, Gregory K.

2018-04-01

Wildland fire is a critical process in forests of the western United States (US). Variation in fire behavior, which is heavily influenced by fuel loading, terrain, weather, and vegetation type, leads to heterogeneity in fire severity across landscapes. The relative influence of these factors in driving fire severity, however, is poorly understood. Here, we explore the drivers of high-severity fire for forested ecoregions in the western US over the period 2002–2015. Fire severity was quantified using a satellite-inferred index of severity, the relativized burn ratio. For each ecoregion, we used boosted regression trees to model high-severity fire as a function of live fuel, topography, climate, and fire weather. We found that live fuel, on average, was the most important factor driving high-severity fire among ecoregions (average relative influence = 53.1%) and was the most important factor in 14 of 19 ecoregions. Fire weather was the second most important factor among ecoregions (average relative influence = 22.9%) and was the most important factor in five ecoregions. Climate (13.7%) and topography (10.3%) were less influential. We also predicted the probability of high-severity fire, were a fire to occur, using recent (2016) satellite imagery to characterize live fuel for a subset of ecoregions in which the model skill was deemed acceptable (n = 13). These ‘wall-to-wall’ gridded ecoregional maps provide relevant and up-to-date information for scientists and managers who are tasked with managing fuel and wildland fire. Lastly, we provide an example of the predicted likelihood of high-severity fire under moderate and extreme fire weather before and after fuel reduction treatments, thereby demonstrating how our framework and model predictions can potentially serve as a performance metric for land management agencies tasked with reducing hazardous fuel across large landscapes.

Science basis for changing forest structure to modify wildfire behavior and severity

Treesearch

Russell T. Graham; Sarah McCaffrey; Theresa B. Jain

2004-01-01

Fire, other disturbances, physical setting, weather, and climate shape the structure and function of forests throughout the Western United States. More than 80 years of fire research have shown that physical setting, fuels, and weather combine to determine wildfire intensity (the rate at which it consumes fuel) and severity (the effect fire has on vegetation, soils,...

Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data

Treesearch

John W. Benoit; Francis M. Fujioka; David R. Weise

2009-01-01

In this study, we consider fire behavior simulation in tropical island scenarios such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The development of a system to provide real-time fire behavior prediction in Hawaii is discussed. This involves obtaining fuels and topography information at a fine scale, as well as supplying daily high-resolution weather forecast data for the area of...

Elevated temperature properties of weathering steel.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

In recent decades, bridge fires have become a major concern in the U.S. Fire hazard in bridges can result in significant economic and public losses. New construction of bridges often use Weathering Steel (also known as Corten Steel), whic...

Forest Fire Danger Rating (FFDR) Prediction over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, B.; Won, M.; Jang, K.; Yoon, S.; Lim, J.

2016-12-01

Approximately five hundred forest fires occur and inflict the losses of both life and property each year in Korea during the forest fire seasons in the spring and autumn. Thus, an accurate prediction of forest fire is essential for effective forest fire prevention. The meteorology is one of important factors to predict and understand the fire occurrence as well as its behaviors and spread. In this study, we present the Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems (FFDRS) on the Korean Peninsula based on the Daily Weather Index (DWI) which represents the meteorological characteristics related to forest fire. The thematic maps including temperature, humidity, and wind speed produced from Korea Meteorology Administration (KMA) were applied to the forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression to analyze the DWI over the Korean Peninsula. The regional data assimilation and prediction system (RDAPS) and the improved digital forecast model were used to verify the sensitivity of DWI. The result of verification test revealed that the improved digital forecast model dataset showed better agreements with the real-time weather data. The forest fire danger rating index (FFDRI) calculated by the improved digital forecast model dataset showed a good agreement with the real-time weather dataset at the 233 administrative districts (R2=0.854). In addition, FFDRI were compared with observation-based FFDRI at 76 national weather stations. The mean difference was 0.5 at the site-level. The results produced in this study indicate that the improved digital forecast model dataset can be useful to predict the FFDRI in the Korean Peninsula successfully.

Overview of safety research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Enders, J. H.

1978-01-01

Aircraft safety is reviewed by first establishing a perspective of air transportation accidents as a function of calendar year, geographic area, and phase of flight, and then by describing the threats to safety and NASA research underway in the three representative areas of engine operational problems, meteorological phenomena, and fire. Engine rotor burst protection, aircraft nacelle fire extinguishment, the aircraft-weather interface, severe weather wind shears and turbulence, clear air turbulence, and lightning are among the topics covered. Fire impact management through fire resistant materials technology development is emphasized.

Effects of ignition location models on the burn patterns of simulated wildfires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Syphard, A.D.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Radeloff, V.C.

2011-01-01

Fire simulation studies that use models such as FARSITE often assume that ignition locations are distributed randomly, because spatially explicit information about actual ignition locations are difficult to obtain. However, many studies show that the spatial distribution of ignition locations, whether human-caused or natural, is non-random. Thus, predictions from fire simulations based on random ignitions may be unrealistic. However, the extent to which the assumption of ignition location affects the predictions of fire simulation models has never been systematically explored. Our goal was to assess the difference in fire simulations that are based on random versus non-random ignition location patterns. We conducted four sets of 6000 FARSITE simulations for the Santa Monica Mountains in California to quantify the influence of random and non-random ignition locations and normal and extreme weather conditions on fire size distributions and spatial patterns of burn probability. Under extreme weather conditions, fires were significantly larger for non-random ignitions compared to random ignitions (mean area of 344.5 ha and 230.1 ha, respectively), but burn probability maps were highly correlated (r = 0.83). Under normal weather, random ignitions produced significantly larger fires than non-random ignitions (17.5 ha and 13.3 ha, respectively), and the spatial correlations between burn probability maps were not high (r = 0.54), though the difference in the average burn probability was small. The results of the study suggest that the location of ignitions used in fire simulation models may substantially influence the spatial predictions of fire spread patterns. However, the spatial bias introduced by using a random ignition location model may be minimized if the fire simulations are conducted under extreme weather conditions when fire spread is greatest. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Forest fire weather in western Oregon and western Washington in 1958.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1958-01-01

In terms of general weather, the 1958 fire season will be classed as one of the hottest on record and as having unusually frequent spring and summer lightning storms. It was also unusual in that spring and most of the summer were less rainy in western Washington than in normally dry southwestern Oregon. Thus, until late August, cumulative fire-season rainfall ranged...

Climate and forest fires in Montana and northern Idaho, 1909-1919

Treesearch

J. A. Larsen; C. C. Delavan

1922-01-01

The present report is a result of the study of the relation between climate and forest fires in Montana and northern Idaho. This region is designated as District I of the United States Forest Service. The data used are the weather records of the United States Weather Bureau for the regular and cooperative stations, and the detail fire reports of the United States...

HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; ...

2015-02-13

Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

Anemometer performance at fire-weather stations.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; John S. Frost

1984-01-01

A survey of 142 fire-weather stations in the Northeastern United States showed that, although maintenance was generally satisfactory, calibration or testing of anemometers was virtually nonexistent. We tested these anemometers using portable equipment that we designed and found the deviations from true wind speed.

Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lydersen, Jamie M; Collins, Brandon M.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Matchett, John R.; Shive, Kristen L.; Povak, Nicholas A.; Kane, Van R.; Smith, Douglas F.

2017-01-01

Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western U.S. Given this increase there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation and water balance on fire severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across scales. Both fuels treatments and previous low to moderate severity wildfire reduced the prevalence of high severity fire. In general, areas without recent fuels treatments and areas that previously burned at high severity tended to have a greater proportion of high severity fire in the Rim Fire. Areas treated with prescribed fire, especially when combined with thinning, had the lowest proportions of high severity. Proportion of the landscape burned at high severity was most strongly influenced by fire weather and proportional area previously treated for fuels or burned by low to moderate severity wildfire. The proportion treated needed to effectively reduce the amount of high fire severity fire varied by spatial scale of analysis, with smaller spatial scales requiring a greater proportion treated to see an effect on fire severity. When moderate and high severity fire encountered a previously treated area, fire severity was significantly reduced in the treated area relative to the adjacent untreated area. Our results show that fuels treatments and low to moderate severity wildfire can reduce fire severity in a subsequent wildfire, even when burning under fire growth conditions. These results serve as further evidence that both fuels treatments and lower severity wildfire can increase forest resilience.

Development of a Method for Selecting Optimum Sites for the Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation Station (AMOS) to Improve Predictability of Forest Fires in Inaccessible Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, S.; Won, M.; Jang, K.; Lim, J.

2016-12-01

As there has been a recent increase in the case of forest fires in North Korea descending southward through the De-Militarized Zone (DMZ), ensuring proper response to such events has been a challenge. Therefore, in order to respond and manage these forest fires appropriately, an improvement in the forest fire predictability through integration of mountain weather information observed at the most optimal site is necessary. This study is a proactive case in which a spatial analysis and an on-site assessment method were developed for selecting an optimum site for a mountain weather observation in national forest. For spatial analysis, the class 1 and 2 forest fire danger areas for the past 10 years, accessibility maximum 100m, Automatic Weather Station (AWS) redundancy within 2.5km, and mountain terrains higher than 200m were analyzed. A final overlay analysis was performed to select the candidates for the field assessment. The sites selected through spatial analysis were quantitatively evaluated based on the optimal meteorological environment, forest and hiking trail accessibility, AWS redundancy, and supply of wireless communication and solar powered electricity. The sites with total score of 70 and higher were accepted as adequate. At the final selected sites, an AMOS was established, and integration of mountain and Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) weather data improved the forest fire predictability in South Korea by 10%. Given these study results, we expect that establishing an automatic mountain meteorology observation station at the optimal sites in inaccessible area and integrating mountain weather data will improve the predictability of forest fires.

Survival analysis and classification methods for forest fire size

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Factors affecting wildland-fire size distribution include weather, fuels, and fire suppression activities. We present a novel application of survival analysis to quantify the effects of these factors on a sample of sizes of lightning-caused fires from Alberta, Canada. Two events were observed for each fire: the size at initial assessment (by the first fire fighters to arrive at the scene) and the size at “being held” (a state when no further increase in size is expected). We developed a statistical classifier to try to predict cases where there will be a growth in fire size (i.e., the size at “being held” exceeds the size at initial assessment). Logistic regression was preferred over two alternative classifiers, with covariates consistent with similar past analyses. We conducted survival analysis on the group of fires exhibiting a size increase. A screening process selected three covariates: an index of fire weather at the day the fire started, the fuel type burning at initial assessment, and a factor for the type and capabilities of the method of initial attack. The Cox proportional hazards model performed better than three accelerated failure time alternatives. Both fire weather and fuel type were highly significant, with effects consistent with known fire behaviour. The effects of initial attack method were not statistically significant, but did suggest a reverse causality that could arise if fire management agencies were to dispatch resources based on a-priori assessment of fire growth potentials. We discuss how a more sophisticated analysis of larger data sets could produce unbiased estimates of fire suppression effect under such circumstances. PMID:29320497

Survival analysis and classification methods for forest fire size.

PubMed

Tremblay, Pier-Olivier; Duchesne, Thierry; Cumming, Steven G

2018-01-01

Factors affecting wildland-fire size distribution include weather, fuels, and fire suppression activities. We present a novel application of survival analysis to quantify the effects of these factors on a sample of sizes of lightning-caused fires from Alberta, Canada. Two events were observed for each fire: the size at initial assessment (by the first fire fighters to arrive at the scene) and the size at "being held" (a state when no further increase in size is expected). We developed a statistical classifier to try to predict cases where there will be a growth in fire size (i.e., the size at "being held" exceeds the size at initial assessment). Logistic regression was preferred over two alternative classifiers, with covariates consistent with similar past analyses. We conducted survival analysis on the group of fires exhibiting a size increase. A screening process selected three covariates: an index of fire weather at the day the fire started, the fuel type burning at initial assessment, and a factor for the type and capabilities of the method of initial attack. The Cox proportional hazards model performed better than three accelerated failure time alternatives. Both fire weather and fuel type were highly significant, with effects consistent with known fire behaviour. The effects of initial attack method were not statistically significant, but did suggest a reverse causality that could arise if fire management agencies were to dispatch resources based on a-priori assessment of fire growth potentials. We discuss how a more sophisticated analysis of larger data sets could produce unbiased estimates of fire suppression effect under such circumstances.

AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalabokidis, Kostas; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark; Athanasis, Nikos; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Vasilakos, Christos

2016-03-01

We describe a Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool to manage wildland fire hazards in Greece (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing online access to information that is essential for wildfire management. The system uses a number of spatial and non-spatial data sources to support key system functionalities. Land use/land cover maps were produced by combining field inventory data with high-resolution multispectral satellite images (RapidEye). These data support wildfire simulation tools that allow the users to examine potential fire behavior and hazard with the Minimum Travel Time fire spread algorithm. End-users provide a minimum number of inputs such as fire duration, ignition point and weather information to conduct a fire simulation. AEGIS offers three types of simulations, i.e., single-fire propagation, point-scale calculation of potential fire behavior, and burn probability analysis, similar to the FlamMap fire behavior modeling software. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were utilized for wildfire ignition risk assessment based on various parameters, training methods, activation functions, pre-processing methods and network structures. The combination of ANNs and expected burned area maps are used to generate integrated output map of fire hazard prediction. The system also incorporates weather information obtained from remote automatic weather stations and weather forecast maps. The system and associated computation algorithms leverage parallel processing techniques (i.e., High Performance Computing and Cloud Computing) that ensure computational power required for real-time application. All AEGIS functionalities are accessible to authorized end-users through a web-based graphical user interface. An innovative smartphone application, AEGIS App, also provides mobile access to the web-based version of the system.

Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke-FCAMMS: a National Paradigm for Wildland Fire and Smoke Management

Treesearch

A. R. Riebau; D. G. Fox

2003-01-01

Fires can be catastrophic, but only when the weather permits. Predicting the weather more than a few hours into the future with accuracy, precision and reliability is an on-going challenge to researchers. Accurate and precise forecasting for more than a few hours into the future has been virtually unrealizable until the latter half of the 20th Century. In the modern...

Wildfire spread, hazard and exposure metric raster grids for central Catalonia.

PubMed

Alcasena, Fermín J; Ager, Alan A; Salis, Michele; Day, Michelle A; Vega-Garcia, Cristina

2018-04-01

We provide 40 m resolution wildfire spread, hazard and exposure metric raster grids for the 0.13 million ha fire-prone Bages County in central Catalonia (northeastern Spain) corresponding to node influence grid (NIG), crown fraction burned (CFB) and fire transmission to residential houses (TR). Fire spread and behavior data (NIG, CFB and fire perimeters) were generated with fire simulation modeling considering wildfire season extreme fire weather conditions (97 th percentile). Moreover, CFB was also generated for prescribed fire (Rx) mild weather conditions. The TR smoothed grid was obtained with a geospatial analysis considering large fire perimeters and individual residential structures located within the study area. We made these raster grids available to assist in the optimization of wildfire risk management plans within the study area and to help mitigate potential losses from catastrophic events.

An Implementing Strategy for Improving Wildland Fire Environmental Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCalla, M. R.; Andrus, D.; Barnett, K.

2007-12-01

Wildland fire is any planned or unplanned fire which occurs in wildland ecosystems. Wildland fires affect millions of acres annually in the U.S. An average of 5.4 million acres a year were burned in the U.S. between 1995 and 2004, approximately 142 percent of the average burned area between 1984 and 1994. In 2005 alone, Federal agencies spent nearly $1 billion on fire suppression and state and local agencies contributed millions more. Many Americans prefer to live and vacation in relatively remote surroundings, (i.e., woods and rangelands). These choices offer many benefits, but they also present significant risks. Most of North America is fire-prone and every day developed areas and home sites are extending further into natural wildlands, which increases the chances of catastrophic fire. In addition, an abundance of accumulated biomass in forests and rangelands and persistent drought conditions are contributing to larger, costlier wildland fires. To effectively prevent, manage, suppress, respond to, and recover from wildland fires, fire managers, and other communities which are impacted by wildland fires (e.g., the business community; healthcare providers; federal, state, and local policymakers; the media; the public, etc.) need timely, accurate, and detailed wildland fire weather and climate information to support their decision-making activities. But what are the wildland fire weather and climate data, products, and information, as well as information dissemination technologies, needed to reach out and promote wildland fire environmental literacy in these communities? The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) conducted a comprehensive review and assessment of weather and climate needs of providers and users in their wildland fire and fuels management activities. The assessment has nine focus areas, one of which is environmental literacy (e.g., education, training, outreach, partnering, and collaboration). The OFCM model for promoting wildland fire environmental literacy, the model's component parts, as well as an implementing strategy to execute the model will be presented. That is, the presentation will lay out the framework and methodology which the OFCM used to systematically define the wildland fire weather and climate education and outreach needs through interdepartmental collaboration within the OFCM coordinating infrastructure. A key element of the methodology is to improve the overall understanding and use of wildland fire forecast and warning climate and weather products and to exploit current and emerging technologies to improve the dissemination of customer-tailored forecast and warning information and products to stakeholders and users. Thus, the framework and methodology define the method used to determine the target public, private, and academic sector audiences. The methodology also identifies the means for determining the optimal channels, formats, and content for informing end users in time for effective action to be taken.

Potential climate change impacts on fire weather in the United States

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Ying Tang; Lifeng Luo; Shiyuan Zhong; Julie Winkler; Xindi. Bian

2015-01-01

Researchers at Michigan State University and the Forest Service's Northern Research Station worked on a joint study to examine the possible effects of future global and regional climate change on the occurrence of fire-weather patterns often associated with extreme and erratic wildfire behavior in the United States.

AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalabokidis, K.; Ager, A.; Finney, M.; Athanasis, N.; Palaiologou, P.; Vasilakos, C.

2015-10-01

A Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) was developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing access to information that is essential for wildfire management. Databases were created with spatial and non-spatial data to support key system functionalities. Updated land use/land cover maps were produced by combining field inventory data with high resolution multispectral satellite images (RapidEye) to be used as inputs in fire propagation modeling with the Minimum Travel Time algorithm. End users provide a minimum number of inputs such as fire duration, ignition point and weather information to conduct a fire simulation. AEGIS offers three types of simulations; i.e. single-fire propagations, conditional burn probabilities and at the landscape-level, similar to the FlamMap fire behavior modeling software. Artificial neural networks (ANN) were utilized for wildfire ignition risk assessment based on various parameters, training methods, activation functions, pre-processing methods and network structures. The combination of ANNs and expected burned area maps produced an integrated output map for fire danger prediction. The system also incorporates weather measurements from remote automatic weather stations and weather forecast maps. The structure of the algorithms relies on parallel processing techniques (i.e. High Performance Computing and Cloud Computing) that ensure computational power and speed. All AEGIS functionalities are accessible to authorized end users through a web-based graphical user interface. An innovative mobile application, AEGIS App, acts as a complementary tool to the web-based version of the system.

Fire weather and fire behavior in the 1966 loop fire

Treesearch

C.M. Countryman; M.A. Fosberg; R.C. Rothermel; M.J. Schroeder

1968-01-01

Southern California regularly experiences a wind condition known as the Santa Ana winds. This paper describes the phenomenon and the effects it had on fire behavior during the 1966 Loop Fire in the Angeles National Forest, which claimed the lives of 12 fire fighters.

Abrupt fire regime change may cause landscape-wide loss of mature obligate seeder forests.

PubMed

Bowman, David M J S; Murphy, Brett P; Neyland, Dominic L J; Williamson, Grant J; Prior, Lynda D

2014-03-01

Obligate seeder trees requiring high-severity fires to regenerate may be vulnerable to population collapse if fire frequency increases abruptly. We tested this proposition using a long-lived obligate seeding forest tree, alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), in the Australian Alps. Since 2002, 85% of the Alps bioregion has been burnt by several very large fires, tracking the regional trend of more frequent extreme fire weather. High-severity fires removed 25% of aboveground tree biomass, and switched fuel arrays from low loads of herbaceous and litter fuels to high loads of flammable shrubs and juvenile trees, priming regenerating stands for subsequent fires. Single high-severity fires caused adult mortality and triggered mass regeneration, but a second fire in quick succession killed 97% of the regenerating alpine ash. Our results indicate that without interventions to reduce fire severity, interactions between flammability of regenerating stands and increased extreme fire weather will eliminate much of the remaining mature alpine ash forest. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of fuels, weather and the built environment on the exposure of property to wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penman, Trent D.; Collins, Luke S.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2014-01-01

Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment – either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates.

Influence of Fuels, Weather and the Built Environment on the Exposure of Property to Wildfire

PubMed Central

Penman, Trent D.; Collins, Luke; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2014-01-01

Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment – either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates. PMID:25360741

Fire Behavior (FB)

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane

2006-01-01

The Fire Behavior (FB) method is used to describe the behavior of the fire and the ambient weather and fuel conditions that influence the fire behavior. Fire behavior methods are not plot based and are collected by fire event and time-date. In general, the fire behavior data are used to interpret the fire effects documented in the plot-level sampling. Unlike the other...

Predicting Fire Season Severity in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Paul Werth

2006-01-01

Projections of fire season severity that integrate historical weather and fire information can be used by fire managers when making decisions about allocating and prioritizing firefighting resources. They enable fire managers to anticipate fire activity and pre-position resources to maximize public and firefighter safety, reduce environmental impacts, and lower...

Forest fires in Missouri.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; William A. Main; John S. Crosby

1973-01-01

Describes factors that contribute to forest fires on two of the State of Missouri's Protection Districts and the Clark National Forest. Includes an analysis of fire cause, annual distribution, weather, and activity by day of week; also discusses multiple-fire day.

Adjustment of relative humidity and temperature for differences in elevation.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1961-01-01

The variation of fire-weather elements in mountainous terrain is complex at any one time, and the patterns vary considerably with time. During periods of serious fire weather, this variation becomes important. Much information is obtainable by local interpretation of available forecasts and observations. Optimum use of available information requires some understanding...

Use of spatially refined satellite remote sensing fire detection data to initialize and evaluate coupled weather-wildfire growth model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, W.; Coen, J.; Oliva, P.

2013-12-01

Availability of spatially refined satellite active fire detection data is gradually increasing. For example, the new 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data show improved active fire detection performance for both small and large size fires. The VIIRS data have proved superior to MODIS for mapping of wildfires events spanning several days to weeks of either continued or intermittent activity, delivering 12-h active fire data of improved spatial fidelity. The VIIRS active fire data are complemented by other satellite active fire data sets of similar or higher spatial resolution, including the new 30 m Landsat-8. Additional assets should include the upcoming 20 m Sentinel-2 Landsat-class satellite program by the European Space Agency to be launched in 2014-15. These improved active fire data sets are fostering new applications that rely on higher resolution input fire data. In this study, we describe the characteristics of the new VIIRS and Landsat-8 data and demonstrate one such new application of satellite active fire data in support of fire behavior modeling. We present results for a wildfire observed in June 2012 in New Mexico using an innovative approach to improving the simulation of large, long-duration wildfires, either for retrospective studies or forecasting in a number of geophysical applications. The approach uses (1) the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire Environment (CAWFE) Model, a numerical weather prediction model two-way coupled with a module representing the rate of spread of a wildfire's flaming front, its rate of consumption of different wildland fuels, and the feedback of this heat release upon the atmosphere - i.e. 'how a fire creates its own weather', combined with (2) spatially refined 375 m VIIRS active fire data, which is used for initialization of a wildfire already in progress in the model and evaluation of its simulated progression at the time of the next pass. Results show that initializing a fire that is 'in progress' with VIIRS data and a weather simulation based on more recent atmospheric analyses can overcome several issues and improve the simulation of late-developing fires and of later periods (particularly those with growth periods separated by lulls) in a long-lived fire.

Deconstructing the King Megafire.

PubMed

Coen, Janice L; Stavros, E Natasha; Fites-Kaufman, Josephine A

2018-05-24

Hypotheses that megafires - very large, high impact fires - are caused by either climate effects such as drought or fuel accumulation due to fire exclusion with accompanying changes to forest structure have long been alleged and guided policy but their physical basis remains untested. Here, unique airborne observations and microscale simulations using a coupled weather - wildland fire behavior model allowed a recent megafire, the King Fire, to be deconstructed and the relative impacts of forest structure, fuel load, weather, and drought on fire size, behavior, and duration to be separated. Simulations reproduced observed details including the arrival at an inclined canyon, a 25-km run, and later slower growth and features. Analysis revealed that fire-induced winds that equaled or exceeded ambient winds and fine-scale airflow undetected by surface weather networks were primarily responsible for the fire's rapid growth and size. Sensitivity tests varied fuel moisture and amount across wide ranges and showed that both drought and fuel accumulation effects were secondary, limited to sloped terrain where they compounded each other, and, in this case, unable to significantly impact the final extent. Compared to standard data, fuel models derived solely from remote sensing of vegetation type and forest structure improved simulated fire progression, notably in disturbed areas, and the distribution of burn severity. These results point to self-reinforcing internal dynamics rather than external forces as a means of generating this and possibly other outlier fire events. Hence, extreme fires need not arise from extreme fire environment conditions. Kinematic models used in operations do not capture fire-induced winds and dynamic feedbacks so can underestimate megafire events. The outcomes provided a nuanced view of weather, forest structure, fuel accumulation, and drought impacts on landscape-scale fire behavior - roles that can be misconstrued using correlational analyses between area burned and macroscale climate data or other exogenous factors. A practical outcome is that fuel treatments should be focused on sloped terrain, where factors multiply, for highest impact. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

National Weather Service

MedlinePlus

... Data SAFETY Floods Tsunami Beach Hazards Wildfire Cold Tornadoes Fog Air Quality Heat Hurricanes Lightning Safe Boating ... Winter Weather Forecasts River Flooding Latest Warnings Thunderstorm/Tornado Outlook Hurricanes Fire Weather Outlooks UV Alerts Drought ...

Fire weather conditions and fire-atmosphere interactions observed during low-intensity prescribed fires - RxCADRE 2012

Treesearch

Craig B. Clements; Neil P. Lareau; Daisuke Seto; Jonathan Contezac; Braniff Davis; Casey Teske; Thomas J. Zajkowski; Andrew T. Hudak; Benjamin C. Bright; Matthew B. Dickinson; Bret W. Butler; Daniel Jimenez; J. Kevin Hiers

2016-01-01

The role of fire-atmosphere coupling on fire behaviour is not well established, and to date few field observations have been made to investigate the interactions between fire spread and fire-induced winds. Therefore, comprehensive field observations are needed to better understand micrometeorological aspects of fire spread. To address this need, meteorological...

Fire behavior, fuel treatments, and fire suppression on the Hayman Fire - Part 2: Description and interpretations of fire behavior

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Roberta Bartlette; Kelly Close; Paul Langowski

2003-01-01

This report summarizes the progress of the Hayman Fire, its behavior, and the influence of environmental conditions. Data were obtained from narratives from fire behavior analysts assigned to the fire management teams, discussions with fire management staff, meteorology from local weather stations and Bradshaw and others (2003), photographs, satellite imagery, and...

How wildfire risk is related to urban planning and Fire Weather Index in SE France (1990-2013).

PubMed

Fox, D M; Carrega, P; Ren, Y; Caillouet, P; Bouillon, C; Robert, S

2018-04-15

Wildfires burn >450,000ha of forest every year in Euro-Mediterranean countries. Many fires originate in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) where housing density and weather conditions affect fire occurrence. Housing density is determined by long term land use policies while weather conditions evolve quickly. The first objective was to quantify the impacts of land use policy on WUI characteristics and fire risk in SE France during 1990-2012. The second objective was to quantify how Fire Weather Index (FWI) is related to fire occurrence. WUI was mapped from 1990, 1999, and 2012 building layers and crossed with a NDVI derived vegetation layer. In all, 12 WUI categories were derived: 4 building density classes and 3 vegetation layers. The I87 FWI was based on daily temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and soil water content. Despite a 30% increase in the number of new buildings, WUI area increased by only 5% as new housing filled in open space in existing WUI area. This trend can be linked to national level urban planning legislation and forest fire protection laws. Major driver variables determining housing location were aspect, slope, and distance to city centers. Fire frequency and burned area were nonlinearly related to FWI: 73% of the 99 fires occurred during weeks with FWI values ≥90 even though these accounted for only 44% of all weeks. Burned area was even more sensitive to FWI since 97% of total burned area occurred during weeks with mean FWI values ≥90. All days with burned areas >100ha had FWI values >150. The study demonstrated that WUI legislation can be an efficient tool to limit WUI fire risk. FWI results suggest the predicted increase in extreme summer heat events with global warming could increase burned area as firefighting resources are stretched beyond capacity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The dynamics and drivers of fuel and fire in the Portuguese public forest.

PubMed

Fernandes, Paulo M; Loureiro, Carlos; Guiomar, Nuno; Pezzatti, Gianni B; Manso, Filipa T; Lopes, Luís

2014-12-15

The assumption that increased wildfire incidence in the Mediterranean Basin during the last decades is an outcome of changes in land use warrants an objective analysis. In this study we examine how annual area burned (BA) in the Portuguese public forest varied in relation to environmental and human-influenced drivers during the 1943-2011 period. Fire behaviour models were used to describe fuel hazard considering biomass removal, cover type changes, area burned, post-disturbance fuel accumulation, forest age-classes distribution and fuel connectivity. Biomass removal decreased rapidly beyond the 1940s, which, along with afforestation, increased fuel hazard until the 1980s; a subsequent decline was caused by increased fire activity. Change point analysis indicates upward shifts in BA in 1952 and in 1973, both corresponding to six-fold increases. Fire weather (expressed by the 90th percentile of the Canadian FWI during summer) increased over the study period, accounting for 18 and 36% of log(BA) variation before 1974 and after 1973, respectively. Regression modelling indicates that BA responds positively to fire weather, fuel hazard and number of fires in descending order of importance; pre-summer and 2-year lagged precipitation respectively decrease and increase BA, but the effects are minor and non-significant when both variables are included in the model. Land use conflicts (expressed through more fires) played a role, but it was afforestation and agricultural abandonment that supported the fire regime shifts, explaining weather-drought as the current major driver of BA as well. We conclude that bottom-up factors, i.e. human-induced changes in landscape flammability and ignition density, can enhance or override the influence of weather-drought on the fire regime in Mediterranean humid regions. A more relevant role of fuel control in fire management policies and practices is warranted by our findings. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fire activity as a function of fire-weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquín; Gutiérrez, José M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, José M.

2015-11-01

Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire-weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating fire activity in the investigated areas.

Fire and drought [Chapter 7

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Littell; David L. Peterson; Karin L. Riley; Yongqiang Liu; Charles H. Luce

2016-01-01

Historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire have been well documented in much of North America, with forest fire occurrence and area burned clearly increasing in response to drought. Drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, and fire weather) to affect fire intensity and severity. Fire regime characteristics (...

Inaja Fire - 1956, Pine Hills Fire - 1967...similar, yet different

Treesearch

Mark J. Schroeder; Bernadine B. Taylor

1968-01-01

Two fires burned in the same area in southern California under nearly similar weather conditions, 11 years apart. Yet the Inaja fire of 1956 was much more disastrous than the Pine Hills fire of 1967. The earlier fire claimed 11 lives, and covered an area five times larger than the 1967 fire. Differences in fuels, topography, fire behavior, fire-control action, and...

46 CFR 181.320 - Fire hoses and nozzles.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Fire hoses and nozzles. 181.320 Section 181.320 Shipping...) FIRE PROTECTION EQUIPMENT Fire Main System § 181.320 Fire hoses and nozzles. (a) A fire hose with a... cargo decks, where no protection is provided, hoses may be temporarily removed during heavy weather or...

46 CFR 181.320 - Fire hoses and nozzles.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Fire hoses and nozzles. 181.320 Section 181.320 Shipping...) FIRE PROTECTION EQUIPMENT Fire Main System § 181.320 Fire hoses and nozzles. (a) A fire hose with a... cargo decks, where no protection is provided, hoses may be temporarily removed during heavy weather or...

46 CFR 181.320 - Fire hoses and nozzles.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Fire hoses and nozzles. 181.320 Section 181.320 Shipping...) FIRE PROTECTION EQUIPMENT Fire Main System § 181.320 Fire hoses and nozzles. (a) A fire hose with a... cargo decks, where no protection is provided, hoses may be temporarily removed during heavy weather or...

46 CFR 181.320 - Fire hoses and nozzles.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Fire hoses and nozzles. 181.320 Section 181.320 Shipping...) FIRE PROTECTION EQUIPMENT Fire Main System § 181.320 Fire hoses and nozzles. (a) A fire hose with a... cargo decks, where no protection is provided, hoses may be temporarily removed during heavy weather or...

Investigating Over Critical Thresholds of Forest Megafires Danger Conditions in Europe Utilising the ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroliagkis, Thomas I.; Camia, Andrea; Liberta, Giorgio; Durrant, Tracy; Pappenberger, Florian; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus

2014-05-01

The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) has been established by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate General for Environment (DG ENV) of the European Commission (EC) to support the services in charge of the protection of forests against fires in the EU and neighbour countries, and also to provide the EC services and the European Parliament with information on forest fires in Europe. Within its applications, EFFIS provides current and forecast meteorological fire danger maps up to 6 days. Weather plays a key role in affecting wildfire occurrence and behaviour. Meteorological parameters can be used to derive meteorological fire weather indices that provide estimations of fire danger level at a given time over a specified area of interest. In this work, we investigate the suitability of critical thresholds of fire danger to provide an early warning for megafires (fires > 500 ha) over Europe. Past trends of fire danger are analysed computing daily fire danger from weather data taken from re-analysis fields for a period of 31 years (1980 to 2010). Re-analysis global data sets coming from the construction of high-quality climate records, which combine past observations collected from many different observing and measuring platforms, are capable of describing how Fire Danger Indices have evolved over time at a global scale. The latest and most updated ERA-Interim dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) was used to extract meteorological variables needed to compute daily values of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI) over Europe, with a horizontal resolution of about 75x75 km. Daily time series of CFWI were constructed and analysed over a total of 1,071 European NUTS3 centroids, resulting in a set of percentiles and critical thresholds. Such percentiles could be used as thresholds to help fire services establish a measure of the significance of CFWI outputs as they relate to levels of fire potential, fuel conditions and fire danger. Median percentile values of fire days accumulated over the 31-year period were compared to median values of all days from that period. As expected, the CWFI time series exhibit different values on fire days than on all days. In addition, a percentile analysis was performed in order to determine the behaviour of index values corresponding to fire events falling into the megafire category. This analysis resulted in a set of critical thresholds based on percentiles. By utilising such thresholds, an initial framework of an early warning system has being established. By lowering the value of any of these thresholds, the number of hits could be increased until all extremes were captured (resulting in zero misses). However, in doing so, the number of false alarms tends to increase significantly. Consequently, an optimal trade-off between hits and false alarms has to be established when setting different (critical) CFWI thresholds.

Measuring fire weather and forest inflammability

Treesearch

H. T. Gisborne

1936-01-01

In the measurement of fire weather and forest inflammability, now practiced regularly at more than 90 forest stations in northern Idaho and western Montana, it is necessary to use many methods that are peculiar to this work. Some of these methods are familiar to meteorologists, but few foresters have had any appreciable training in meteorology. Others are of such,...

Wildland Fire Forecasting: Predicting Wildfire Behavior, Growth, and Feedbacks on Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coen, J. L.

2005-12-01

Recent developments in wildland fire research models have represented more complex of fire behavior. The cost has been to increase the computational requirements. When operational constraints are included, such as the need to produce such forecasts faster than real time, the challenge becomes a balance of how much complexity (with corresponding gains in realism) and accuracy can be achieved in producing the quantities of interest while meeting the specified operational constraints. Current field tools are calculator or Palm-Pilot based algorithms such as BEHAVE and BEHAVE Plus that produce timely estimates of instantaneous fire spread rates, flame length, and fire intensity at a point using readily estimated inputs of fuel model, terrain slope, and atmospheric wind speed at a point. At the cost of requiring a PC and slower calculation, FARSITE represents two-dimensional fire spread and adds capabilities including a parameterized representation of crown fire ignition, This work describes how a coupled atmosphere-fire model previously used as a research tool has been adapted for production of real-time forecasts of fire growth and its interactions with weather over a domain focusing on Colorado during summer 2004. The coupled atmosphere-wildland fire-environment (CAWFE) model composed of a 3-dimensional atmospheric prediction model that has been two-way coupled with an empirical fire spread model. The models are connected in that atmospheric conditions (and fuel conditions influenced by the atmosphere) affect the rate and direction of fire propagation, which releases sensible and latent heat (i.e. thermal and water vapor fluxes) to the atmosphere that in turn alter the winds and atmospheric structure around the fire. Thus, it can represent time and spatially-varying weather and the fire feedbacks on the atmospheric which are at the heart of sudden changes in fire behavior and examples of extreme fire behavior such as blow ups, which are now not predictable with current tools. Thus, although this work shows that is it possible to perform more detailed simulations in real time, fire behavior forecasting remains a challenging problem. This is due to challenges in weather prediction, particularly at fine spatial and temporal scales considered "nowcasting" (0-6 hrs), uncertainties in fire behavior even with known meteorological conditions, limitations in quantitative datasets on fuel properties such as fuel loading, and verification. This work describes efforts to advance these capabilities with input from remote sensing data on fuel characteristics and dynamic steering and object-based verification with remotely sensed fire perimeters.

15 CFR 946.4 - Menu of services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.4 Menu of services. The following are the basic weather...) Marine Forecasts, Statements, and Warnings (g) Hydrologic Forecasts and Warnings (h) Fire Weather...

15 CFR 946.4 - Menu of services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.4 Menu of services. The following are the basic weather...) Marine Forecasts, Statements, and Warnings (g) Hydrologic Forecasts and Warnings (h) Fire Weather...

Preliminary results of fire behavior in maquis fuels under varying weather and slope conditions in turkey

Treesearch

Bulent Saglam; Ertugrul Bilgili; Omer Kucuk; Bahar Dinc Durmaz; Ismail Baysal

2007-01-01

The prediction of fire behavior is of vital importance to all fire management planning and decisionmaking processes including fire prevention, presuppression planning, and fire use. The effect of slope on fire behavior is well acknowledged, yet its effect on fire behavior is not well accounted for. Determining the effects of slope on fire behavior under field...

Fire danger and fire behavior modeling systems in Australia, Europe, and North America

Treesearch

Francis M. Fujioka; A. Malcolm Gill; Domingos X. Viegas; B. Mike Wotton

2009-01-01

Wildland fire occurrence and behavior are complex phenomena involving essentially fuel (vegetation), topography, and weather. Fire managers around the world use a variety of systems to track and predict fire danger and fire behavior, at spatial scales that span from local to global extents, and temporal scales ranging from minutes to seasons. The fire management...

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy; Peterson, David L.; Riley, Karin L.; Yongquiang Liu,; Luce, Charles H.

2016-01-01

The historical and pre-settlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate—including short- and long-term droughts—are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem.

Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquin; Gutierrez, Jose M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, Jose M.

2015-01-01

Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating fire activity in the investigated areas.

Fire danger assessment using ECMWF weather prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Pappemberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2015-04-01

Weather plays a major role in the birth, growth and death of a wildfire wherever there is availability of combustible vegetation and suitable terrain topography. Prolonged dry periods creates favourable conditions for ignitions, wind can then increase the fire spread, while higher relative humidity, and precipitation (rain or snow) may decrease or extinguish it altogether. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), started in 2011 under the lead of the European Joint Research Centre (JRC) to monitor and forecast fire danger and fire behaviour in Europe. In 2012 a collaboration with the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) was established to explore the potential of using state of the art weather forecast systems as driving forcing for the calculations of fire risk indices. From this collaboration in 2013 the EC-fire system was born. It implements the three most commonly used fire danger rating systems (NFDRS, FWI and MARK-5) and it is both initialised and forced by gridded atmospheric fields provided either by ECMWF re-analysis or ECMWF ensemble prediction systems. For consistency invariant fields (i.e fuel maps, vegetation cover, topogarphy) and real-time weather information are all provided on the same grid. Similarly global climatological vegetation stage conditions for each day of the year are provided by remote satellite observations. These climatological static maps substitute the traditional man judgement in an effort to create an automated procedure that can work in places where local observations are not available. The system has been in operation for the last year providing an ensemble of daily forecasts for fire indices with lead-times up to 10 days over Europe and Globally. An important part of the system is provided by its (re)-analysis dataset obtained by using the (re)-analysis forcings as drivers to calculate the fire risk indices. This is a crucial part of the whole chain since these fields are used to establish the initial conditions from which the forecast is subsequently run. The reanalysis dataset goes back to year 1980 (the starting year of ERA-Interim integrations) and is updated in quasi real time. In addition of providing the staring point for the operational forecasts it is a very useful dataset for the scope of calibration and verification of the system. Assuming reanalysis fields are good proxies for observations then, by comparison with fire events which really occurred, this dataset can be used to assess the potential predictability of fire risk indices. In this work we will introduce the EC-fire system. Then the reanalysis dataset will be used to identify regions of high fire risk predictability and where the system might be in need of further refinement.

Fire suppression effectiveness for simultaneous fires: an examination of fire histories

Treesearch

Larry F. Bednar; Romain Mees; David Strauss

1990-01-01

We examined fire and weather records for areas of the western United States for the period 1970-1984 to determine the effects of simultaneous wildfire occurrence on fire suppression efforts. Burning conditions were accounted for by use of short strings of fires which involved simultaneous suppression efforts. These strings were matched with closely preceding isolated...

Decision making under uncertainty: Recommendations for the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS)

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson

2015-01-01

The management of wildfire is a dynamic, complex, and fundamentally uncertain enterprise. Fire managers face uncertainties regarding fire weather and subsequent influence on fire behavior, the effects of fire on socioeconomic and ecological resources, and the efficacy of alternative suppression actions on fire outcomes. In these types of difficult decision environments...

Decision modeling for analyzing fire action outcomes

Treesearch

Donald MacGregor; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

2008-01-01

A methodology for incident decomposition and reconstruction is developed based on the concept of an "event-frame model." The event-frame model characterizes a fire incident in terms of (a) environmental events that pertain to the fire and the fire context (e.g., fire behavior, weather, fuels) and (b) management events that represent responses to the fire...

Space-time clustering analysis of wildfires: The influence of dataset characteristics, fire prevention policy decisions, weather and climate.

PubMed

Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário G; Tonini, Marj

2016-07-15

The present study focuses on the dependence of the space-time permutation scan statistics (STPSS) (1) on the input database's characteristics and (2) on the use of this methodology to assess changes on the fire regime due to different type of climate and fire management activities. Based on the very strong relationship between weather and the fire incidence in Portugal, the detected clusters will be interpreted in terms of the atmospheric conditions. Apart from being the country most affected by the fires in the European context, Portugal meets all the conditions required to carry out this study, namely: (i) two long and comprehensive official datasets, i.e. the Portuguese Rural Fire Database (PRFD) and the National Mapping Burnt Areas (NMBA), respectively based on ground and satellite measurements; (ii) the two types of climate (Csb in the north and Csa in the south) that characterizes the Mediterranean basin regions most affected by the fires also divide the mainland Portuguese area; and, (iii) the national plan for the defence of forest against fires was approved a decade ago and it is now reasonable to assess its impacts. Results confirmed (1) the influence of the dataset's characteristics on the detected clusters, (2) the existence of two different fire regimes in the country promoted by the different types of climate, (3) the positive impacts of the fire prevention policy decisions and (4) the ability of the STPSS to correctly identify clusters, regarding their number, location, and space-time size in spite of eventual space and/or time splits of the datasets. Finally, the role of the weather on days when clustered fires were active was confirmed for the classes of small, medium and large fires. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of biotic feedback and harvest management on boreal forest fire activity under climate change.

PubMed

Krawchuk, Meg A; Cumming, Steve G

2011-01-01

Predictions of future fire activity over Canada's boreal forests have primarily been generated from climate data following assumptions that direct effects of weather will stand alone in contributing to changes in burning. However, this assumption needs explicit testing. First, areas recently burned can be less likely to burn again in the near term, and this endogenous regulation suggests the potential for self-limiting, negative biotic feedback to regional climate-driven increases in fire. Second, forest harvest is ongoing, and resulting changes in vegetation structure have been shown to affect fire activity. Consequently, we tested the assumption that fire activity will be driven by changes in fire weather without regulation by biotic feedback or regional harvest-driven changes in vegetation structure in the mixedwood boreal forest of Alberta, Canada, using a simulation experiment that includes the interaction of fire, stand dynamics, climate change, and clear cut harvest management. We found that climate change projected with fire weather indices calculated from the Canadian Regional Climate Model increased fire activity, as expected, and our simulations established evidence that the magnitude of regional increase in fire was sufficient to generate negative feedback to subsequent fire activity. We illustrate a 39% (1.39-fold) increase in fire initiation and 47% (1.47-fold) increase in area burned when climate and stand dynamics were included in simulations, yet 48% (1.48-fold) and 61% (1.61-fold) increases, respectively, when climate was considered alone. Thus, although biotic feedbacks reduced burned area estimates in important ways, they were secondary to the direct effect of climate on fire. We then show that ongoing harvest management in this region changed landscape composition in a way that led to reduced fire activity, even in the context of climate change. Although forest harvesting resulted in decreased regional fire activity when compared to unharvested conditions, forest composition and age structure was shifted substantially, illustrating a trade-off between management goals to minimize fire and conservation goals to emulate natural disturbance.

Contributions of ignitions, fuels, and weather to the spatial patterns of burn probability of a boreal landscape

Treesearch

Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Carol Miller; Meg A. Krawchuck; Mark Heathcott; Max A. Moritz

2011-01-01

The spatial pattern of fire observed across boreal landscapes is the outcome of complex interactions among components of the fire environment. We investigated how the naturally occurring patterns of ignitions, fuels, and weather generate spatial pattern of burn probability (BP) in a large and highly fireprone boreal landscape of western Canada, Wood Buffalo National...

NCEP-ECPC monthly to seasonal US fire danger forecasts

Treesearch

J. Roads; P. Tripp; H. Juang; J. Wang; F. Fujioka; S. Chen

2010-01-01

Five National Fire Danger Rating System indices (including the Ignition Component, Energy Release Component, Burning Index, Spread Component, and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index) and the Fosberg Fire Weather Index are used to characterise US fire danger. These fire danger indices and input meteorological variables, including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation...

Crown fuel spatial variability and predictability of fire spread

Treesearch

Russell A. Parsons; Jeremy Sauer; Rodman R. Linn

2010-01-01

Fire behavior predictions, as well as measures of uncertainty in those predictions, are essential in operational and strategic fire management decisions. While it is becoming common practice to assess uncertainty in fire behavior predictions arising from variability in weather inputs, uncertainty arising from the fire models themselves is difficult to assess. This is...

Assessing predictive services' 7-day fire potential outlook

Treesearch

Karin Riley; Crystal Stonesifer; Dave Calkin; Haiganoush Preisler

2015-01-01

The Predictive Services program was created under the National Wildfire Coordinating Group in 2001 to address the need for long- and short-term decision support information for fire managers and operations personnel. The primary mission of Predictive Services is to integrate fire weather, fire danger, and resource availability to enable strategic fire suppression...

Using the Fire Weather Index (FWI) to improve the estimation of fire emissions from fire radiative power (FRP) observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Rémy, Samuel; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2018-04-01

The atmospheric composition analysis and forecast for the European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) relies on biomass-burning fire emission estimates from the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). The GFAS is a global system and converts fire radiative power (FRP) observations from MODIS satellites into smoke constituents. Missing observations are filled in using persistence, whereby observed FRP values from the previous day are progressed in time until a new observation is recorded. One of the consequences of this assumption is an increase of fire duration, which in turn translates into an increase of emissions estimated from fires compared to what is available from observations. In this study persistence is replaced by modelled predictions using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which describes how atmospheric conditions affect the vegetation moisture content and ultimately fire duration. The skill in predicting emissions from biomass burning is improved with the new technique, which indicates that using an FWI-based model to infer emissions from FRP is better than persistence when observations are not available.

Ecohydrology: When will the jungle burn?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, David

2017-06-01

Fire weather indices are unsuited to forecast fire in tropical rainforests. Now research shows the area burnt across Borneo is related to drought-depleted water tables, presenting the opportunity to predict fire danger in these environments.

Effectiveness of Prescribed Fire as a Fuel Treatment in Californian Coniferous Forests

Treesearch

Nicole M. Vaillant; JoAnn Fites-Kaufman; Scott L. Stephens

2006-01-01

Effective fire suppression for the past century has altered forest structure and increased fuel loads. Prescribed fire as a fuels treatment can reduce wildfire size and severity. This study investigates how prescribed fire affects fuel loads, forest structure, potential fire behavior, and modeled tree mortality at 80th, 90th, and 97.5th percentile fire weather...

FireFamily Plus user's guide, Version 2.0

Treesearch

Larry Bradshaw; Erin McCormick

2000-01-01

FireFamily Plus is the new software for summarizing and analyzing daily weather observations and computing fire danger indexes based on the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). While the software and packaging are new, many of the reports are not. FireFamily Plus addressed the year 2000 issues that confronted a litany of DOS programs that operated against fire...

The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada.

PubMed

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike D; Parks, Sean A; Anderson, Kerry R; Little, John M; Taylor, Steve W

2014-08-01

Given that they can burn for weeks or months, wildfires in temperate and boreal forests may become immense (eg., 10(0) - 10(4) km(2) ). However, during the period within which a large fire is 'active', not all days experience weather that is conducive to fire spread; indeed most of the spread occurs on a small proportion (e.g., 1 - 15 days) of not necessarily consecutive days during the active period. This study examines and compares the Canada-wide patterns in fire-conducive weather ('potential' spread) and the spread that occurs on the ground ('realized' spread). Results show substantial variability in distributions of potential and realized spread days across Canada. Both potential and realized spread are higher in western than in eastern Canada; however, whereas potential spread generally decreases from south to north, there is no such pattern with realized spread. The realized-to-potential fire-spread ratio is considerably higher in northern Canada than in the south, indicating that proportionally more fire-conducive days translate into fire progression. An exploration of environmental correlates to spread show that there may be a few factors compensating for the lower potential spread in northern Canada: a greater proportion of coniferous (i.e., more flammable) vegetation, lesser human impacts (i.e., less fragmented landscapes), sufficient fire ignitions, and intense droughts. Because a linear relationship exists between the frequency distributions of potential spread days and realized spread days in a fire zone, it is possible to obtain one from the other using a simple conversion factor. Our methodology thus provides a means to estimate realized fire spread from weather-based data in regions where fire databases are poor, which may improve our ability to predict future fire activity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seasonal-to-interannual variation in biomass burning over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K. M.; Lau, W. K. M.; Ichoku, I.; Pereira, G.; Darmenov, A.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Ellison, L.

2017-12-01

The intensity and frequency of wildfires are strongly affected by climatic factors, such as droughts and heat waves, which are governed by weather and climate dynamics. . Climatic impacts on wildfire and biomass burning can be complex involving not only natural variability, but also human activities. In this study, we examine the seasonality of occurrences and intensity of fires and climatic impact as a function of underlying biomes over the CONUS, using fire pixel data from MODIS instruments on-board Terra and Aqua. Results show that there are three distinct fire seasons, i.e., summer (June to August), spring (March-April), and Fall (September-October). In the evergreen needle leaf region where most fires occur, the fire season peaks in mid boreal summer. In this region, fires tend to start early (June) in southern US, and late (August) in northern US. Double peaks are distinctive features in grass land and crop land. Double peaks in crop land (spring and fall) appear to be associated with agricultural practices. However, the two peaks in grass land (spring and summer) are due to natural wildfires, associated with changes in seasonal weather pattern. To better understand the potential climatic impact on fire, we examine relationships between fire weather index (FWI) and fire pixel counts. Fire pixel count has a strong correlation with FWI in evergreen needle leaf forest, deciduous broad leaf forest, and open shrub land. However, no significant linear relations are found in crop land, grass land, and mixed forest. The implications of these findings, and possible impacts of atmospheric teleconnecon on the fire season in the CONUS will also be discussed.

Climatic conditions preceding historically great fires in the North Central Region.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; Rodney W. Sando

1969-01-01

This paper examines the importance of various climatic variables before seven well-known fires of the past. Also, the 1871 synoptic weather pattern preceding the Chicago-Peshtigo-Michigan fire disaster is examined in detail.

Forest fire weather in eastern Oregon and central Washington in 1960.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer; Howard E. Graham

1961-01-01

In 1960, the first analysis of fire season weather was made for forests east of the Cascade Range. Highlights were: The 1960 season was among the most severe since 1939 in eastern Oregon, was more severe than normal in central Washington, and will long be remembered for the rainless lightning storm that hit northeast Oregon with devastating effect the evening of July...

Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: Evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models

Treesearch

Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Robert E. Keane; Ross A. Bradstock; Ian D. Davies; James M. Lenihan; Chao Li; Kimberley A. Logan; Russell A. Parsons

2009-01-01

The behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAFE, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEMLAND) was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets...

Measuring the rate of spread of chaparral prescribed fires in northern California

Treesearch

S. L. Stephens; D. R. Weise; D. L. Fry; R. J. Keiffer; J. Dawson; E. Koo; J. Potts; P. J. Pagni

2008-01-01

Prescribed fire is a common method used to produce desired ecological effects in chaparral by mimicking the natural role of fire. Since prescribed fires are usually conducted in moderate fuel and weather conditions, models that accurately predict fire behavior and effects under these scenarios are important for management. In this study, explosive audio devices and...

The Wildland/Urban Interface in 2025

Treesearch

Gary O. Tokle

1987-01-01

In the year 2025, wildland fire fighting practices have improved significantly over the method employed during the late1900's. Improved methods for predicting severe fire weather conditions, the establishment of the North American Fire Coordination Center, and the utilization of foam products for both wildfire and structural fire control have significantly changed...

Fire and forest meteorology

Treesearch

SA Ferguson; T.J. Brown; M. Flannigan

2005-01-01

The American Meteorological Society symposia series on Fire and Forest Meteorology provides biennial forums for atmospheric and fire scientists to introduce and discuss the latest and most relevant research on weather, climate and fire. This special issue highlights significant work that was presented at the Fifth Symposium in Orlando, Florida during 16-20 November...

Interannual variations in fire weather, fire extent, and synoptic-scale circulation patterns in northern California and Oregon

Treesearch

Valerie Trouet; Alan H. Taylor; Andrew M. Carleton; Carl N. Skinner

2009-01-01

The Mediterranean climate region on the west coast of the United States is characterized by wet winters and dry summers, and by high fire activity. The importance of synoptic-scale circulation patterns (ENSO, PDO, PNA) on fire-climate interactions is evident in contemporary fire data sets and in pre-Euroamerican tree-ring-based fire records. We investigated how...

Simulation and thermal imaging of the 2006 Esperanza Wildfire in southern California: application of a coupled weather-wildland fire model

Treesearch

Janice L. Coen; Philip J Riggan

2014-01-01

The 2006 Esperanza Fire in Riverside County, California, was simulated with the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire Environment (CAWFE) model to examine how dynamic interactions of the atmosphere with large-scale fire spread and energy release may affect observed patterns of fire behavior as mapped using the FireMapper thermal imaging radiometer. CAWFE simulated the...

Estimating contribution of wildland fires to ambient ozone levels in National Parks in the Sierra Nevada, California

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shiyuan (Sharon) Zhong; Annie Esperanza; Timothy J. Brown; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Leland Tarnay

2010-01-01

Data from four continuous ozone and weather monitoring sites operated by the National Park Service in Sierra Nevada, California, are used to develop an ozone forecasting model and to estimate the contribution of wildland fires on ambient ozone levels. The analyses of weather and ozone data pointed to the transport of ozone precursors from the Central Valley as an...

Fire danger rating in the United States of America: An evolution since 1916

Treesearch

Colin C. Hardy; Charles E. Hardy

2007-01-01

Fire scientists in the United States began exploring the relationships of fire-danger and hazard with weather, fuel moisture, and ignition probabilities as early as 1916. Many of the relationships identified then persist today in the form of our National Fire-Danger-Rating System. This paper traces the evolution of fire-danger rating in the United States, including...

Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin

Treesearch

W. Matt Jolly; Patrick H. Freeborn

2017-01-01

Wildland firefighters must assess potential fire behaviour in order to develop appropriate strategies and tactics that will safely meet objectives. Fire danger indices integrate surface weather conditions to quantify potential variations in fire spread rates and intensities and therefore should closely relate to observed fire behaviour. These indices could better...

High-severity fire: Evaluating its key drivers and mapping its probability across western US forests

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Lisa M. Holsinger; Matthew H. Panunto; W. Matt Jolly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Gregory K. Dillon

2018-01-01

Wildland fire is a critical process in forests of the western United States (US). Variation in fire behavior, which is heavily influenced by fuel loading, terrain, weather, and vegetation type, leads to heterogeneity in fire severity across landscapes. The relative influence of these factors in driving fire severity, however, is poorly understood. Here, we explore the...

Fire and weather disturbances in terrestrial ecosystems of the eastern Cascades.

Treesearch

James K. Agee

1994-01-01

Fire has been an important ecological process in eastside Cascade ecosystems for millennia. Fire regimes ranged from low severity to high severity, and historic fire return intervals ranged from less than a decade to greater than 300 years. Fire history and effects are described for grassland and shrubland ecosystems, and the range of forested communities by plant...

An assessment of climate and fire danger rating in the Northern Rockies during the 1910 fire season

Treesearch

Charles W. McHugh; Mark A. Finney; Larry S. Bradshaw

2010-01-01

The 1910 fires of western Montana and northern Idaho have received much publicity in the popular media but little scientific attention regarding the factors that contribute to fire behavior and fire danger. Here we present information surrounding the weather, and reconstructed measures of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), Energy...

Colemanite: a fire retardant candidate for wood plastic composites

Treesearch

Evren Terzi; Saip Nami Kartal; Sabriye Piskin; Nicole Stark; Aysel Kanturk Figen; Robert H. White

2018-01-01

The use of raw boron minerals (i.e. tincalconite, colemanite, and ulexite) was evaluated to increase the fire performance of wood plastic composites (WPCs) in comparison with commercially available fire retardants (FRs). Cone calorimetry and limited oxygen index tests were performed to evaluate the fire properties of WPC specimens. Artificial weathering and 3-point...

How to predict the spread and intensity of forest and range fires

Treesearch

Richard C. Rothermel

1983-01-01

This manual documents procedures for estimating the rate of forward spread, intensity, flame length, and size of fires burning in forests and rangelands. Contains instructions for obtaining fuel and weather data, calculating fire behavior, and interpreting the results for application to actual fire problems. This is a companion publication to "

Climate change and wildfires

Treesearch

William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

2013-01-01

Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

Predicting fire behavior in U.S. Mediterranean ecosystems

Treesearch

Frank A. Albini; Earl B. Anderson

1982-01-01

Quantification and methods of prediction of wildland fire behavior are discussed briefly and factors of particular relevance to the prediction of fire behavior in Mediterranean ecosystems are reviewed. A computer-based system which uses relevant fuel information and current weather data to predict fire behavior is in operation in southern California. Some of the...

Can Southern California Wildland Conflagrations be Stopped?

Treesearch

Clive M. Countryman

1974-01-01

In southern California, many fires start and burn under conditions that permit their control with little burned acreage and fire damage. In contrast, under other conditions of weather and topography, on a small group of fires, control effort is relatively ineffective; they become large and destructive. A major reason for these "conflagration fires" is the...

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Littell; David L. Peterson; Karin L. Riley; Yongqiang Liu; Charlie H. Luce

2016-01-01

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity,...

Developing the U.S. Wildland Fire Decision Support System

Treesearch

Erin Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman; Mark A. Finney; Tom Zimmerman; Robert C. Seli; Lisa M. Elenz; David E. Calkin; John R. Fiedler

2011-01-01

A new decision support tool, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) has been developed to support risk-informed decision-making for individual fires in the United States. WFDSS accesses national weather data and forecasts, fire behavior prediction, economic assessment, smoke management assessment, and landscape databases to efficiently formulate and apply...

Steppe plant response to seasonal fire

Treesearch

Paulette L. Ford

2003-01-01

Fire is a natural grassland disturbance that affects a variety of ecosystem factors including nutrient cycling, species diversity, and population and community dynamics. Caution is warranted when interpreting the effects of fire on grasslands due to the variety of fire types (e.g. wildfire vs prescribed burn), season of occurrence, weather conditions, grassland uses (e...

The hidden consequences of fire suppression

Treesearch

Carol Miller

2012-01-01

Wilderness managers need a way to quantify and monitor the effects of suppressing lightning-caused wildfires, which can alter natural fire regimes, vegetation, and habitat. Using computerized models of fire spread, weather, and fuels, it is now possible to quantify many of the hidden consequences of fire suppression. Case study watersheds in Yosemite and Sequoia-Kings...

A Mega-fire event in Central Russia: fire weather, radiative, and optical properties of the atmosphere, and consequences for subboreal forest plants

Treesearch

Nataly Y. Chubarova; Nickolay G. Prilepsky; Alexei N. Rublev; Allen R. Riebau

2009-01-01

In 2002, a major drought and prolonged high temperatures occurred in central Russia that resulted in unprecedented wildland fires. These fires occurred under extreme fire danger conditions and were impossible for the Russian authorities to extinguish. It is perhaps somewhat unique that the fires were first burning peat bogs and later forests, causing very massive smoke...

Biological and geophysical feedbacks with fire in the Earth system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archibald, S.; Lehmann, C. E. R.; Belcher, C. M.; Bond, W. J.; Bradstock, R. A.; Daniau, A.-L.; Dexter, K. G.; Forrestel, E. J.; Greve, M.; He, T.; Higgins, S. I.; Hoffmann, W. A.; Lamont, B. B.; McGlinn, D. J.; Moncrieff, G. R.; Osborne, C. P.; Pausas, J. G.; Price, O.; Ripley, B. S.; Rogers, B. M.; Schwilk, D. W.; Simon, M. F.; Turetsky, M. R.; Van der Werf, G. R.; Zanne, A. E.

2018-03-01

Roughly 3% of the Earth’s land surface burns annually, representing a critical exchange of energy and matter between the land and atmosphere via combustion. Fires range from slow smouldering peat fires, to low-intensity surface fires, to intense crown fires, depending on vegetation structure, fuel moisture, prevailing climate, and weather conditions. While the links between biogeochemistry, climate and fire are widely studied within Earth system science, these relationships are also mediated by fuels—namely plants and their litter—that are the product of evolutionary and ecological processes. Fire is a powerful selective force and, over their evolutionary history, plants have evolved traits that both tolerate and promote fire numerous times and across diverse clades. Here we outline a conceptual framework of how plant traits determine the flammability of ecosystems and interact with climate and weather to influence fire regimes. We explore how these evolutionary and ecological processes scale to impact biogeochemical and Earth system processes. Finally, we outline several research challenges that, when resolved, will improve our understanding of the role of plant evolution in mediating the fire feedbacks driving Earth system processes. Understanding current patterns of fire and vegetation, as well as patterns of fire over geological time, requires research that incorporates evolutionary biology, ecology, biogeography, and the biogeosciences.

Assessing Fire Weather Index using statistical downscaling and spatial interpolation techniques in Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karali, Anna; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Frias, Maria Dolores; Hatzaki, Maria; Roussos, Anargyros; Casanueva, Ana

2013-04-01

Forest fires have always been present in the Mediterranean ecosystems, thus they constitute a major ecological and socio-economic issue. The last few decades though, the number of forest fires has significantly increased, as well as their severity and impact on the environment. Local fire danger projections are often required when dealing with wild fire research. In the present study the application of statistical downscaling and spatial interpolation methods was performed to the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), in order to assess forest fire risk in Greece. The FWI is used worldwide (including the Mediterranean basin) to estimate the fire danger in a generalized fuel type, based solely on weather observations. The meteorological inputs to the FWI System are noon values of dry-bulb temperature, air relative humidity, 10m wind speed and precipitation during the previous 24 hours. The statistical downscaling methods are based on a statistical model that takes into account empirical relationships between large scale variables (used as predictors) and local scale variables. In the framework of the current study the statistical downscaling portal developed by the Santander Meteorology Group (https://www.meteo.unican.es/downscaling) in the framework of the EU project CLIMRUN (www.climrun.eu) was used to downscale non standard parameters related to forest fire risk. In this study, two different approaches were adopted. Firstly, the analogue downscaling technique was directly performed to the FWI index values and secondly the same downscaling technique was performed indirectly through the meteorological inputs of the index. In both cases, the statistical downscaling portal was used considering the ERA-Interim reanalysis as predictands due to the lack of observations at noon. Additionally, a three-dimensional (3D) interpolation method of position and elevation, based on Thin Plate Splines (TPS) was used, to interpolate the ERA-Interim data used to calculate the index. Results from this method were compared with the statistical downscaling results obtained from the portal. Finally, FWI was computed using weather observations obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, mainly in the south continental part of Greece and a comparison with the previous results was performed.

Seasonal Fluctuation in Moisture Content of Pine Foliage

Treesearch

Von J. Johnson

1966-01-01

Green or living fuels, particularly pine crowns, are commonly consumed by forest fires burning hot, windy weather. In some cases the pine crown fire has been known to burn ahead of surface-burning fire for some distance before dropping to the ground.

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States.

PubMed

Littell, Jeremy S; Peterson, David L; Riley, Karin L; Liu, Yongquiang; Luce, Charles H

2016-07-01

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate - including short- and long-term droughts - are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Relation of weather forecasts to the prediction of dangerous forest fire conditions

Treesearch

R. H. Weidman

1923-01-01

The purpose of predicting dangerous forest-fire conditions, of course, is to reduce the great cost and damage caused by forest fires. In the region of Montana and northern Idaho alone the average cost to the United States Forest Service of fire protection and suppression is over $1,000,000 a year. Although the causes of forest fires will gradually be reduced by...

Modeling topographic influences on fuel moisture and fire danger in complex terrain to improve wildland fire management decision support

Treesearch

Zachary A. Holden; W. Matt Jolly

2011-01-01

Fire danger rating systems commonly ignore fine scale, topographically-induced weather variations. These variations will likely create heterogeneous, landscape-scale fire danger conditions that have never been examined in detail. We modeled the evolution of fuel moistures and the Energy Release Component (ERC) from the US National Fire Danger Rating System across the...

An empirical machine learning method for predicting potential fire control locations for pre-fire planning and operational fire management

Treesearch

Christopher D. O' Connor; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

2017-01-01

During active fire incidents, decisions regarding where and how to safely and effectively deploy resources to meet management objectives are often made under rapidly evolving conditions, with limited time to assess management strategies or for development of backup plans if initial efforts prove unsuccessful. Under all but the most extreme fire weather conditions,...

Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high-severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests

Treesearch

Daniel J. Krofcheck; Matthew D. Hurteau; Robert M. Scheller; E. Louise Loudermilk

2017-01-01

In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels...

Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

2015-09-01

The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.

Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy.

PubMed

Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

2015-09-01

The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.

Investigating the association between weather conditions, calendar events and socio-economic patterns with trends in fire incidence: an Australian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, Jonathan; Higgs, Gary; Rohde, David; Chhetri, Prem

2011-06-01

Fires in urban areas can cause significant economic, physical and psychological damage. Despite this, there has been a comparative lack of research into the spatial and temporal analysis of fire incidence in urban contexts. In this paper, we redress this gap through an exploration of the association of fire incidence to weather, calendar events and socio-economic characteristics in South-East Queensland, Australia using innovative technique termed the quad plot. Analysing trends in five fire incident types, including malicious false alarms (hoax calls), residential buildings, secondary (outdoor), vehicle and suspicious fires, results suggest that risk associated with all is greatly increased during school holidays and during long weekends. For all fire types the lowest risk of incidence was found to occur between one and six a.m. It was also found that there was a higher fire incidence in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods and there was some evidence to suggest that there may be a compounding impact of high temperatures in such areas. We suggest that these findings may be used to guide the operations of fire services through spatial and temporal targeting to better utilise finite resources, help mitigate risk and reduce casualties.

The use of geographic information for fire management planning in Yosemite National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; van Wagtendonk, Kent A.; Meyer, Joseph B.; Paintner, Kara J.

2002-01-01

Fire has played a critical role in the ecosystems of Yosemite National park for millennia. Before the advent of Euro-Americans, lightning fires and fires set by Native Americans burned freely across the landscape. These fires burned periodically, with the interval between fires dependent on the availability of ignition sources, adequate fuels, and weather conducive to burning. As a result, different vegetation types burned at different intervals.

Creation and implementation of a certification system for insurability and fire risk classification for forest plantations

Treesearch

Veronica Loewe M.; Victor Vargas; Juan Miguel Ruiz; Andrea Alvarez C.; Felipe Lobo Q.

2015-01-01

Currently, the Chilean insurance market sells forest fire insurance policies and agricultural weather risk policies. However, access to forest fire insurance is difficult for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), with a significant proportion (close to 50%) of forest plantations being without coverage. Indeed, the insurance market that sells forest fire insurance...

A probabilistic view of chaparral and forest fire regimes in southern California and northern Baja California

Treesearch

Richard A. Minnich; Ernesto Franco-Vizcaíno

2009-01-01

Fire suppression in industrialized countries encourages massive smoke emissions from high-intensity fires as a result of two inextricably related processes under current suppression policies: the nonrandom occurrence of vegetation fires in extreme weather states and the anomalous accumulation of spatially homogenous fuels. We propose as an organizing idea that the...

Home Fires

MedlinePlus

... to the touch and lights that flicker. Portable Space Heaters Keep combustible objects at least three feet ... Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme Cold Space Weather Thunderstorms & Lightning Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Ready. ...

Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How Far is it Efficient and Sustainable?

PubMed

Curt, Thomas; Frejaville, Thibaut

2018-03-01

A new fire policy reinforcing aggressive fire suppression was established in Mediterranean France in response to the devastating wildfires of the 1990s, but to what extent this has changed fire activity yet remains poorly understood. For this purpose, we compared the number and location of ignitions and of burned areas between two 20-year periods (1975-1994 vs. 1995-2014), in parallel to the changes in fuel covering, human activity promoting ignitions, and fire weather. The number of fires decreased almost continuously since 1975, but sharply after 1994, suggesting an effect of better fire prevention due to the new policy. But the major change in fire activity is a considerable reduction in fire size and burned areas after 1994, especially during summer and in the most fire-prone places, in response to massive efforts put into fire suppression. These reductions have occurred while the covering by fuel biomass, the human pressure on ignition, and the fire weather index increased, thus making the study area more hazardous. Our results suggest that a strategy of aggressive fire suppression has great potential for counterbalancing the effects of climate changes and human activities and for controlling fire activity in the short term. However, we discuss whether such a suppression-oriented approach is sustainable in the context of global changes, which cast new fire challenges as demonstrated by the devastative fires of 2003 and 2016. We advocate for a more comprehensive fire policy to come. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The drivers of wildfire enlargement do not exhibit scale thresholds in southeastern Australian forests.

PubMed

Price, Owen F; Penman, Trent; Bradstock, Ross; Borah, Rittick

2016-10-01

Wildfires are complex adaptive systems, and have been hypothesized to exhibit scale-dependent transitions in the drivers of fire spread. Among other things, this makes the prediction of final fire size from conditions at the ignition difficult. We test this hypothesis by conducting a multi-scale statistical modelling of the factors determining whether fires reached 10 ha, then 100 ha then 1000 ha and the final size of fires >1000 ha. At each stage, the predictors were measures of weather, fuels, topography and fire suppression. The objectives were to identify differences among the models indicative of scale transitions, assess the accuracy of the multi-step method for predicting fire size (compared to predicting final size from initial conditions) and to quantify the importance of the predictors. The data were 1116 fires that occurred in the eucalypt forests of New South Wales between 1985 and 2010. The models were similar at the different scales, though there were subtle differences. For example, the presence of roads affected whether fires reached 10 ha but not larger scales. Weather was the most important predictor overall, though fuel load, topography and ease of suppression all showed effects. Overall, there was no evidence that fires have scale-dependent transitions in behaviour. The models had a predictive accuracy of 73%, 66%, 72% and 53% accuracy at 10 ha, 100 ha, 1000 ha and final size scales. When these steps were combined, the overall accuracy for predicting the size of fires was 62%, while the accuracy of the one step model was only 20%. Thus, the multi-scale approach was an improvement on the single scale approach, even though the predictive accuracy was probably insufficient for use as an operational tool. The analysis has also provided further evidence of the important role of weather, compared to fuel, suppression and topography in driving fire behaviour. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Spatial patterns of large natural fires in Sierra Nevada wilderness areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, B.M.; Kelly, M.; van Wagtendonk, J.W.; Stephens, S.L.

2007-01-01

The effects of fire on vegetation vary based on the properties and amount of existing biomass (or fuel) in a forest stand, weather conditions, and topography. Identifying controls over the spatial patterning of fire-induced vegetation change, or fire severity, is critical in understanding fire as a landscape scale process. We use gridded estimates of fire severity, derived from Landsat ETM+ imagery, to identify the biotic and abiotic factors contributing to the observed spatial patterns of fire severity in two large natural fires. Regression tree analysis indicates the importance of weather, topography, and vegetation variables in explaining fire severity patterns between the two fires. Relative humidity explained the highest proportion of total sum of squares throughout the Hoover fire (Yosemite National Park, 2001). The lowest fire severity corresponded with increased relative humidity. For the Williams fire (Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Parks, 2003) dominant vegetation type explains the highest proportion of sum of squares. Dominant vegetation was also important in determining fire severity throughout the Hoover fire. In both fires, forest stands that were dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) burned at highest severity, while red fir (Abies magnifica) stands corresponded with the lowest fire severities. There was evidence in both fires that lower wind speed corresponded with higher fire severity, although the highest fire severity in the Williams fire occurred during increased wind speed. Additionally, in the vegetation types that were associated with lower severity, burn severity was lowest when the time since last fire was fewer than 11 and 17 years for the Williams and Hoover fires, respectively. Based on the factors and patterns identified, managers can anticipate the effects of management ignited and naturally ignited fires at the forest stand and the landscape levels. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Assessing the value of increased model resolution in forecasting fire danger

Treesearch

Jeanne Hoadley; Miriam Rorig; Ken Westrick; Larry Bradshaw; Sue Ferguson; Scott Goodrick; Paul Werth

2003-01-01

The fire season of 2000 was used as a case study to assess the value of increasing mesoscale model resolution for fire weather and fire danger forecasting. With a domain centered on Western Montana and Northern Idaho, MM5 simulations were run at 36, 12, and 4-km resolutions for a 30 day period at the height of the fire season. Verification analyses for meteorological...

Mixed severity fire effects within the Rim fire: Relative importance of local climate, fire weather, topography, and forest structure

Treesearch

Van R. Kane; C. Alina Cansler; Nicholas A. Povak; Jonathan T. Kane; Robert J. McGaughey; James A. Lutz; Derek J. Churchill; Malcolm P. North

2015-01-01

Recent and projected increases in the frequency and severity of large wildfires in the western U.S. makes understanding the factors that strongly affect landscape fire patterns a management priority for optimizing treatment location. We compared the influence of variations in the local environment on burn severity patterns on the large 2013 Rim fire that burned under...

Fuel age and fire spread: Natural conditions versus opportunities for fire suppression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsey, Richard W.; Keeley, Jon E.; Wilson, Kit

2009-01-01

Wildfires are driven and restrained by an interplay of variables that can lead to many potential outcomes. As every wildland firefighter learns in basic training, the ability of a fire to spread is determined by three basic variables: fuel type and condition, weather, and topography. Fire suppression obviously plays a significant role in determining fire spread as well, so firefighter activity becomes an additional variable.

Forest fire weather and computed fire occurrence in western Oregon and western Washington in 1960.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1960-01-01

Fire season severity in 1960 was about average in western Washington but was very high in western Oregon. Severity of the entire season in both States was slightly greater than in 1959. Although spring was less severe, both summer and fall were slightly more severe than comparable parts of the previous fire season. Spring fire danger in western Washington was as low as...

Spatial products available for identifying areas of likely wildfire ignitions using lightning location data-Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS)

Treesearch

Paul Sopko; Larry Bradshaw; Matt Jolly

2016-01-01

The Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS, www.wfas.net) is a one-stop-shop giving wildland fire managers the ability to assess fire potential ranging in scale from national to regional and temporally from 1 to 5 days. Each day, broad-area maps are produced from fire weather station and lightning location networks. Three products are created using 24 hour...

Fire behavior, weather, and burn severity of the 2007 Anaktuvuk River tundra fire, North Slope, Alaska

Treesearch

Benjamin M. Jones; Crystal A. Kolden; Randi Jandt; John T. Abatzoglu; Frank Urban; Christopher D. Arp

2009-01-01

In 2007, the Anaktuvuk River Fire (ARF) became the largest recorded tundra fire on the North Slope of Alaska. The ARF burned for nearly three months, consuming more than 100,000 ha. At its peak in early September, the ARF burned at a rate of 7000 ha d-1. The conditions potentially responsible for this large tundra fire include modeled record high...

Forecasting wildland fire behavior using high-resolution large-eddy simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Esparza, D.; Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Anderson, A.; DeCastro, A.; Brown, B.

2016-12-01

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. To this end, the state of Colorado is funding the development of the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS). The system is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enhanced with a fire behavior module (WRF-Fire). Realistic representation of wildland fire behavior requires explicit representation of small scale weather phenomena to properly account for coupled atmosphere-wildfire interactions. Moreover, transport and dispersion of biomass burning emissions from wildfires is controlled by turbulent processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, which are difficult to parameterize and typically lead to large errors when simplified source estimation and injection height methods are used. Therefore, we utilize turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations at a resolution of 111 m to forecast fire spread and smoke distribution using a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model. This presentation will describe our improvements to the level-set based fire-spread algorithm in WRF-Fire and an evaluation of the operational system using 12 wildfire events that occurred in Colorado in 2016, as well as other historical fires. In addition, the benefits of explicit representation of turbulence for smoke transport and dispersion will be demonstrated.

Forecasting wildland fire behavior using high-resolution large-eddy simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Esparza, D.; Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Anderson, A.; DeCastro, A.; Brown, B.

2017-12-01

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. To this end, the state of Colorado is funding the development of the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS). The system is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enhanced with a fire behavior module (WRF-Fire). Realistic representation of wildland fire behavior requires explicit representation of small scale weather phenomena to properly account for coupled atmosphere-wildfire interactions. Moreover, transport and dispersion of biomass burning emissions from wildfires is controlled by turbulent processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, which are difficult to parameterize and typically lead to large errors when simplified source estimation and injection height methods are used. Therefore, we utilize turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations at a resolution of 111 m to forecast fire spread and smoke distribution using a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model. This presentation will describe our improvements to the level-set based fire-spread algorithm in WRF-Fire and an evaluation of the operational system using 12 wildfire events that occurred in Colorado in 2016, as well as other historical fires. In addition, the benefits of explicit representation of turbulence for smoke transport and dispersion will be demonstrated.

San Diego Declaration on Climate Change and Fire Management: Ramifications for fuels management

Treesearch

Brian P. Oswald

2007-01-01

Climate plays a central role in shaping fire regimes over long time scales and in generating short-term weather that drives fire events. Recent research suggests that the increasing numbers of large and severe wildfires, lengthened wildfire seasons, and increased area burned are, in part, related to shifts in climate. The historical fire regimes in many ecosystems have...

Fire behavior associated with the 1994 South Canyon fire on Storm King Mountain, Colorado

Treesearch

Bret W. Butler; Roberta A. Bartlette; Larry S. Bradshaw; Jack D. Cohen; Patricia L. Andrews; Ted Putnam; Richard J. Mangan

1998-01-01

In the aftermath of the deaths of 14 firefighters during the South Canyon Fire in July 1994, fire scientists assessed what occurred and suggested guidelines that may help firefighters avert such a tragedy in the future. This report describes the fuel, weather, and topographical factors that caused the transition from a relatively slow-spreading, low-intensity surface...

Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event

Treesearch

Jamie M. Lydersen; Brandon M. Collins; Matthew L. Brooks; John R. Matchett; Kristen L. Shive; Nicholas A. Povak; Van R. Kane; Douglas F. Smith

2017-01-01

Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western U.S. Given this increase there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels...

Mapping day-of-burning with coarse-resolution satellite fire-detection data

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks

2014-01-01

Evaluating the influence of observed daily weather on observed fire-related effects (e.g. smoke production, carbon emissions and burn severity) often involves knowing exactly what day any given area has burned. As such, several studies have used fire progression maps ­ in which the perimeter of an actively burning fire is mapped at a fairly high temporal resolution -...

Forest fire weather and computed fire occurrence in western Oregon and western Washington.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1959-01-01

Severity of the 1959 fire season varied from well below normal in western Washington to a record-setting high in southwestern Oregon. The season was characterized by well-distributed, short rainy periods separated by comparatively short dry spells that frequently included days of high fire danger. July was the only month with markedly above-normal temperatures, and...

Using a Simple Parcel Model to Investigate the Haines Index

Treesearch

Mary Ann Jenkins; Steven K. Krueger; Ruiyu Sun

2003-01-01

The Haines Index (Haines 1988) ia fire-weather index based on stability and moisture conditions of the lower atmosphere that rates the potential for large fire growth or extreme fire behavior. The Hained Index is calculated by adding a temperature term a to a moisture term b.

An interoperable standard system for the automatic generation and publication of the fire risk maps based on Fire Weather Index (FWI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Julià Selvas, Núria; Ninyerola Casals, Miquel

2015-04-01

It has been implemented an automatic system to predict the fire risk in the Principality of Andorra, a small country located in the eastern Pyrenees mountain range, bordered by Catalonia and France, due to its location, his landscape is a set of a rugged mountains with an average elevation around 2000 meters. The system is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) that consists on different components, each one, measuring a different aspect of the fire danger calculated by the values of the weather variables at midday. CENMA (Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i de la Muntanya d'Andorra) has a network around 10 automatic meteorological stations, located in different places, peeks and valleys, that measure weather data like relative humidity, wind direction and speed, surface temperature, rainfall and snow cover every ten minutes; this data is sent daily and automatically to the system implemented that will be processed in the way to filter incorrect measurements and to homogenizer measurement units. Then this data is used to calculate all components of the FWI at midday and for the level of each station, creating a database with the values of the homogeneous measurements and the FWI components for each weather station. In order to extend and model this data to all Andorran territory and to obtain a continuous map, an interpolation method based on a multiple regression with spline residual interpolation has been implemented. This interpolation considerer the FWI data as well as other relevant predictors such as latitude, altitude, global solar radiation and sea distance. The obtained values (maps) are validated using a cross-validation leave-one-out method. The discrete and continuous maps are rendered in tiled raster maps and published in a web portal conform to Web Map Service (WMS) Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standard. Metadata and other reference maps (fuel maps, topographic maps, etc) are also available from this geoportal.

44 CFR 15.10 - Soliciting, vending, and debt collection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE... United States Fire Administration or the Mt. Weather Executive Director approve the activities in writing...

44 CFR 15.10 - Soliciting, vending, and debt collection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE... United States Fire Administration or the Mt. Weather Executive Director approve the activities in writing...

44 CFR 15.10 - Soliciting, vending, and debt collection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE... United States Fire Administration or the Mt. Weather Executive Director approve the activities in writing...

44 CFR 15.10 - Soliciting, vending, and debt collection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE... United States Fire Administration or the Mt. Weather Executive Director approve the activities in writing...

44 CFR 15.10 - Soliciting, vending, and debt collection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE... United States Fire Administration or the Mt. Weather Executive Director approve the activities in writing...

33 CFR 401.94 - Keeping copies of regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... duplicated set of the Ship's Fire Control Plans shall be permanently stored in a prominently marked weather-tight enclosure outside the deckhouse for the assistance of shore-side fire-fighting personnel. [70 FR...

33 CFR 401.94 - Keeping copies of regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... duplicated set of the Ship's Fire Control Plans shall be permanently stored in a prominently marked weather-tight enclosure outside the deckhouse for the assistance of shore-side fire-fighting personnel. [70 FR...

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2016-01-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996-2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

Assessing fire risk in Portugal during the summer fire season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dacamara, C. C.; Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.

2009-04-01

Since 1998, Instituto de Meteorologia, the Portuguese Weather Service has relied on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System (van Wagner, 1987) to produce daily forecasts of fire risk. The FWI System consists of six components that account for the effects of fuel moisture and wind on fire behavior. The first three components, i.e. the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and the Drought Code (DC) respectively rate the average moisture content of surface litter, decomposing litter, and organic (humus) layers of the soil. Wind effects are then added to FFMC leading to the Initial Spread Index (ISI) that rates fire spread. The remaining two fuel moisture codes (DMC and DC) are in turn combined to produce the Buildup Index (BUI) that is a rating of the total amount of fuel available for combustion. BUI is finally combined with ISI to produce the Fire Weather Index (FWI) that represents the rate of fire intensity. Classes of fire danger and levels of preparedness are commonly defined on an empirical way for a given region by calibrating the FWI System against wildfire activity as defined by the recorded number of events and by the observed burned area over a given period of time (Bovio and Camia, 1998). It is also a well established fact that distributions of burned areas are heavily skewed to the right and tend to follow distributions of the exponential-type (Cumming, 2001). Based on the described context, a new procedure is presented for calibrating the FWI System during the summer fire season in Portugal. Two datasets were used covering a 28-year period (1980-2007); i) the official Portuguese wildfire database which contains detailed information on fire events occurred in the 18 districts of Continental Portugal and ii) daily values of the six components of the FWI System as derived from reanalyses (Uppala et al., 2005) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Calibration of the FWI System is then performed in two steps; 1) a truncated Weibull distribution is fitted to the sample of burned areas and 2) the quality of the fitted statistical model is improved by incorporating components of the FWI System as covariates. Obtained model allows estimating on a daily basis the probability of occurrence of fires larger than a given threshold as well as producing maps of fire risk. Results as obtained from a prototype currently being developed will be presented and discussed. In particular, it will be shown that results provide additional evidence of the known fact that the extent of burned area in Portugal is controlled by two main atmospheric factors (Pereira et al. 2005): i) a long-term control related to the regime of temperature and precipitation in spring and ii) a short-term control exerted by the occurrence of very intense dry spells in days of extreme synoptic situations. Bovio, G., and A. Camia. 1998. An analysis of large forest fire danger conditions in Europe. In Proc. 3rd Int. Conf. on Forest Fire Research & 14th Conf. on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Viegas, D.X. (Ed.), Luso, 16-20 Nov., ADAI, 975-994. Cumming, S.G., 2001. Parametric models of the fire size distribution. Can J. For. Res., 31, 1297-1303. Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C. and Leite, S.M., 2005. Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agr. and For. Meteorol., 129 (1-2), 11-25. Uppala, S.M. et al., 2005: The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961-3012. Van Wagner, C.E., 1987. Development and structure of the Canadian forest fire weather index system. Canadian Forestry Service, Forest Technical Report 35, Ottawa, 37 pp.

Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

Treesearch

R Barbero; J T Abatzoglou; E A Steel

2014-01-01

Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ¡­60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric...

Fire Danger Rating: The next 20 Years

Treesearch

John E. Deeming

1987-01-01

For the next 10 years, few changes will be made to the fire-danger rating system. During that time, the focus will be on the automation of weather observing systems and the streamlining of the computation and display of ratings. The time horizon for projecting fire danger will be pushed to 30 days by the late 1990's. A close alignment of the fire-danger rating...

Chemical and dispersal characteristics of particulate emissions from forest fires in Siberia

Treesearch

Y. N. Samsonov; V. A. Ivanov; D. J. McRae; S. P. Baker

2012-01-01

Approximately 20 experimental fires were conducted on forest plots of 1-4 ha each in 2000-07 in two types of boreal forests in central Siberia, and 18 on 6 x 12-m plots in 2008-10. These experiments were designed to mimic wildfires under similar burning conditions. The fires were conducted in prescribed conditions including full documentation on pre-fire weather, pre-...

Use of air tankers pays off ... a case study

Treesearch

Clive M. Countryman

1969-01-01

Fire suppression costs in the 1967 Timber Canyon Fire, in Southern California, were increased by about $39,000 over what they would have been had air tankers not been used. But because aircraft were called into help put out the fire, fire damages were reduced by $501,375- yielding a "profit" of $461,574. Data on weather, fuels, and topography made it possible...

Modeling Fire Emissions across Central and Southern Italy: Implications for Land and Fire Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Spano, D.

2015-12-01

Fires play a relevant role in the global and regional carbon cycle, representing a remarkable source of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that influence atmosphere budgets and climate. In addition, the wildfire increase projected in Southern Europe due to climate change (CC) and concurrent exacerbation of extreme weather conditions could also lead to a significant rise in GHG. Recently, in the context of the Italian National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (SNAC), several approaches were identified as valuable tools to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires, in order to reduce landscape susceptibility and to contribute to the efforts of carbon emission mitigation proposed within the Kyoto protocol. Active forest and fuel management (such as prescribed burning, fuel reduction and removal, weed and flammable shrub control, creation of fuel discontinuity) is recognised to be a key element to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires. Despite this, overall there is a lack of studies about the effectiveness of fire emission mitigation strategies. The current work aims to analyse the potential of a combination of fuel management practices in mitigating emissions from forest fires and evaluate valuable and viable options across Central and Southern Italy. These objectives were achieved throughout a retrospective application of an integrated approach combining a fire emission model (FOFEM - First Order Fire Effect Model) with spatially explicit, comprehensive, and accurate fire, vegetation and weather data for the period 2004-2012. Furthermore, a number of silvicultural techniques were combined to develop several fuel management scenarios and then tested to evaluate their potential in mitigating fire emissions.The preliminary results showed the crucial role of appropriate fuel, fire behavior, and weather data to reduce bias in quantifying the source and the composition of fire emissions and to attain reasonable estimations. Also, the current study highlighted that balanced combination of fuel management techniques could not only be a viable mean to reduce fire emissions but at the same time prevent future wildfires and the related threat to human lives and activities.

Weather types and the regime of wildfires in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.; Dacamara, C. C.

2009-04-01

An objective classification scheme, as developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000), was applied to classify the daily atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal between 1980 and 2007 into a set of 10 basic weather types (WTs). The classification scheme relies on a set of atmospheric circulation indices, namely southerly flow (SF), westerly flow (WF), total flow (F), southerly shear vorticity (ZS), westerly shear vorticity (ZW) and total vorticity (Z). The weather-typing approach, together with surfacemeteorological variables (e.g. intensity and direction of geostrophic wind, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation) were then associated to wildfire events as recorded in the official Portuguese fire database consisting of information on each fire occurred in the 18 districts of Continental Portugal within the same period (>450.000 events). The objective of this study is to explore the dependence of wildfire activity on weather and climate and then evaluate the potential of WTs to discriminate among recorded wildfires on what respects to their occurrence and development. Results show that days characterised by surface flow with an eastern component (i.e. NE, E and SE) account for a high percentage of daily burnt area, as opposed to surface westerly flow (NW, W and SW), which represents about a quarter of the total number of days but only accounts for a very low percentage of active fires and of burnt area. Meteorological variables such as minimum and maximum temperatures, that are closely associated to surface wind intensity and direction, also present a good ability to discriminate between the different types of fire events.. Trigo R.M., DaCamara C. (2000) "Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int J of Climatology, 20, 1559-1581.

Meteorological conditions affecting the Freeman Lake (Idaho) fire

Treesearch

George M. Jemison

1932-01-01

Measurements of meteorological conditions prevailing during the rapid spread of forest fires are greatly needed so that when their recurrence seems probable, fire-weather forecasters may issue warnings of the danger. Such determinations also can be used by forest protective agencies which operate meteorological stations to guide their own action in the distribution of...

Implications of fire management on cultural resources [Chapter 9

Treesearch

Rebecca S. Timmons; Leonard deBano; Kevin C. Ryan

2012-01-01

Previous chapters in this synthesis have identified the important fuel, weather, and fire relationships associated with damage to cultural resources (CR). They have also identified the types of effects commonly encountered in various fire situations and provided some guidance on how to recognize damages and minimize their occurrence. This chapter describes planning...

Progress towards a lightning ignition model for the Northern Rockies

Treesearch

Paul Sopko; Don Latham

2010-01-01

We are in the process of constructing a lightning ignition model specific to the Northern Rockies using fire occurrence, lightning strike, ecoregion, and historical weather, NFDRS (National Fire Danger Rating System), lightning efficiency and lightning "possibility" data. Daily grids for each of these categories were reconstructed for the 2003 fire season (...

Use of artificial landscapes to isolate controls on burn probability

Treesearch

Marc-Andre Parisien; Carol Miller; Alan A. Ager; Mark A. Finney

2010-01-01

Techniques for modeling burn probability (BP) combine the stochastic components of fire regimes (ignitions and weather) with sophisticated fire growth algorithms to produce high-resolution spatial estimates of the relative likelihood of burning. Despite the numerous investigations of fire patterns from either observed or simulated sources, the specific influence of...

49 CFR 176.205 - Under deck stowage requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... be equipped with an overhead water sprinkler system or fixed fire extinguishing system. (3) Each... rents, tears, and holes. (7) A fire screen must be fitted at the weather end of each vent duct leading from the hold or compartment. The fire screen must completely cover the open area. It must consist of...

49 CFR 176.205 - Under deck stowage requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... be equipped with an overhead water sprinkler system or fixed fire extinguishing system. (3) Each... rents, tears, and holes. (7) A fire screen must be fitted at the weather end of each vent duct leading from the hold or compartment. The fire screen must completely cover the open area. It must consist of...

49 CFR 176.205 - Under deck stowage requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... be equipped with an overhead water sprinkler system or fixed fire extinguishing system. (3) Each... rents, tears, and holes. (7) A fire screen must be fitted at the weather end of each vent duct leading from the hold or compartment. The fire screen must completely cover the open area. It must consist of...

49 CFR 176.205 - Under deck stowage requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... be equipped with an overhead water sprinkler system or fixed fire extinguishing system. (3) Each... rents, tears, and holes. (7) A fire screen must be fitted at the weather end of each vent duct leading from the hold or compartment. The fire screen must completely cover the open area. It must consist of...

Fire management of California shrubland landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.

2002-01-01

Fire management of California shrublands has been heavily influenced by policies designed for coniferous forests, however, fire suppression has not effectively excluded fire from chaparral and coastal sage scrub landscapes and catastrophic wildfires are not the result of unnatural fuel accumulation. There is no evidence that prescribed burning in these shrublands provides any resource benefit and in some areas may negatively impact shrublands by increasing fire frequency. Therefore, fire hazard reduction is the primary justification for prescription burning, but it is doubtful that rotational burning to create landscape age mosaics is a cost effective method of controlling catastrophic wildfires. There are problems with prescription burning in this crown-fire ecosystem that are not shared by forests with a natural surface-fire regime. Prescription weather conditions preclude burning at rotation intervals sufficient to effect the control of fires ignited under severe weather conditions. Fire management should focus on strategic placement of prescription burns to both insure the most efficient fire hazard reduction and to minimize the amount of landscape exposed to unnaturally high fire frequency. A major contributor to increased fire suppression costs and increased loss of property and lives is the continued urban sprawl into wildlands naturally subjected to high intensity crown fires. Differences in shrubland fire history suggest there may be a need for different fire management tactics between central coastal and southern California. Much less is known about shrubland fire history in the Sierra Nevada foothills and interior North Coast Ranges, and thus it would be prudent to not transfer these ideas too broadly across the range of chaparral until we have a clearer understanding of the extent of regional variation in shrubland fire regimes.

Fire management of California shrubland landscapes.

PubMed

Keeley, Jon E

2002-03-01

Fire management of California shrublands has been heavily influenced by policies designed for coniferous forests, however, fire suppression has not effectively excluded fire from chaparral and coastal sage scrub landscapes and catastrophic wildfires are not the result of unnatural fuel accumulation. There is no evidence that prescribed burning in these shrublands provides any resource benefit and in some areas may negatively impact shrublands by increasing fire frequency. Therefore, fire hazard reduction is the primary justification for prescription burning, but it is doubtful that rotational burning to create landscape age mosaics is a cost effective method of controlling catastrophic wildfires. There are problems with prescription burning in this crown-fire ecosystem that are not shared by forests with a natural surface-fire regime. Prescription weather conditions preclude burning at rotation intervals sufficient to effect the control of fires ignited under severe weather conditions. Fire management should focus on strategic placement of prescription burns to both insure the most efficient fire hazard reduction and to minimize the amount of landscape exposed to unnaturally high fire frequency. A major contributor to increased fire suppression costs and increased loss of property and lives is the continued urban sprawl into wildlands naturally subjected to high intensity crown fires. Differences in shrubland fire history suggest there may be a need for different fire management tactics between central coastal and southern California. Much less is known about shrubland fire history in the Sierra Nevada foothills and interior North Coast Ranges, and thus it would be prudent to not transfer these ideas too broadly across the range of chaparral until we have a clearer understanding of the extent of regional variation in shrubland fire regimes.

Advancing Fire Weather Research via Interagency Collaboration: The NOAA/USFS MOU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schranz, S.; Pouyat, R.

2012-12-01

In 2005, the Western Governors' Association (WGA) first articulated the need for closer collaboration between NOAA and the land management agencies to improve our services - and to ensure the best new technology and scientific advances are infused into fire weather information and services. NOAA has taken the WGA advice very seriously and, over the past few years, have followed up by polling users of our fire weather information. This was done both by our Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, and via an examination of internal and collaborative research activities as conducted by NOAA's Science Advisory Board. Through these processes, and given the tight budget environment, it's become clear we can't make needed progress alone. We need to call upon our joint expertise, along with the expertise of partners across the federal, state, academic, and research communities. This talk will outline the NOAA/USFS MOU signed in August, 2012 and the collaborative research already begun with the USFS and other partners.

Ground-based measurements of column-averaged carbon dioxide molar mixing ratios in a peatland fire-prone area of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia.

PubMed

Iriana, Windy; Tonokura, Kenichi; Inoue, Gen; Kawasaki, Masahiro; Kozan, Osamu; Fujimoto, Kazuki; Ohashi, Masafumi; Morino, Isamu; Someya, Yu; Imasu, Ryuichi; Rahman, Muhammad Arif; Gunawan, Dodo

2018-05-31

Tropical peatlands in Indonesia have been disturbed over decades and are a source of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the atmosphere by peat respiration and peatland fire. With a portable solar spectrometer, we have performed measurements of column-averaged CO 2 dry-air molar mixing ratios, XCO 2 , in Palangka Raya, Indonesia, and quantify the emission dynamics of the peatland with use of the data for weather, fire hotspot, ground water table, local airport operation visibility and weather radar images. Total emission of CO 2 from surface and underground peat fires as well as from peatland ecosystem is evaluated by day-to-day variability of XCO 2 . We found that the peatland fire and the net ecosystem CO 2 exchange contributed with the same order of magnitude to the CO 2 emission during the non-El Niño Southern Oscillation year of July 2014-August 2015.

Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Miguel M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Feridun Turkman, K.

2018-02-01

We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based on daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and is estimated using a daily model based on a generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger are then associated with daily probability estimated by the daily model. The model is calibrated using 13 years of data (2004-2016) and validated against the period of January-September 2017. Results obtained show that about 72 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the extreme class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than 1.5 times the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.

Assessing Landscape Scale Wildfire Exposure for Highly Valued Resources in a Mediterranean Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcasena, Fermín J.; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

2015-05-01

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km2 located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

Historical, observed, and modeled wildfire severity in montane forests of the Colorado Front Range.

PubMed

Sherriff, Rosemary L; Platt, Rutherford V; Veblen, Thomas T; Schoennagel, Tania L; Gartner, Meredith H

2014-01-01

Large recent fires in the western U.S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20th century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate- or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions.

Historical, Observed, and Modeled Wildfire Severity in Montane Forests of the Colorado Front Range

PubMed Central

Sherriff, Rosemary L.; Platt, Rutherford V.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Schoennagel, Tania L.; Gartner, Meredith H.

2014-01-01

Large recent fires in the western U.S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20th century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate- or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions. PMID:25251103

Forest fires and lightning activity during the outstanding 2003 and 2005 fire seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Ramos, Alexandre; Trigo, Ricardo

2013-04-01

Wildfires in southern Europe cause frequent extensive economical and ecological losses and, even human casualties. Comparatively to other Mediterranean countries, Portugal is the country with more burnt area and fires per unit area in the last decade, mainly during the summer season (Pereira et al., 2011). According to the fire records available, between 1980 and 2009, wildfires have affected over 3 million hectares in Portugal (JRC, 2011), which corresponds to approximately a third of the Portuguese Continental territory. The main factors that influence fire ignition and propagation are: (1) the presence of fuel (i.e. vegetation); (2) climate and weather; (3) socioeconomic conditions that affect land use/land cover patterns, fire-prevention and fire-fighting capacity and (4) topography. Specifically, weather (e.g. wind, temperature, precipitation, humidity, and lightning occurrence) plays an important role in fire behavior, affecting both ignition and spread of wildfires. Some countries have a relatively large fraction of fires caused by lightning, e.g. northwestern USA, Canada, Russia (). In contrast, Portugal has only a small percentage of fire records caused by lightning. Although significant doubts remain for the majority of fires in the catalog since they were cataloged without a likely cause. The recent years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly outstanding for fire activity in Portugal, registering, respectively, total burned areas of 425 726 ha and 338 262 ha. However, while the 2003 was triggered by an exceptional heatwave that struck the entire western Europe, the 2005 fire season registered was coincident with one of the most severe droughts of the 20th century. In this work we have used mainly two different databases: 1) the Portuguese Rural Fire Database (PRFD) which is representative of rural fires that have occurred in Continental Portugal, 2001-2011, with the original data provided by the Autoridade Florestal Nacional (AFN, 2011); 2) lightning discharges location which were extracted from the Portuguese Lightning Location System that has been in service since June of 2002 and is operated by the national weather service - Instituto de Meteorologia (IM). The main objective of this work is to analyze for possible relations between the PRFD and the Portuguese lightning database for the 2003 and 2005 extreme fire seasons. In particularly we were able to verify the forest fires labeled as "ignited by lightning" by comparing its location to the lightning discharges location database. Furthermore we have also investigated possible fire ignition by lightning discharges that have not yet been labeled in the PRFD by comparing daily data from both datasets.

Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2017 in the United States

MedlinePlus

... Damage Costs Weather Event Convection Lightning Tornado Thunderstorm Wind Hail Extreme Temperatures Cold Heat Flood Flash Flood ... Drought Dust Storm Dust Devil Rain Fog High Wind Waterspout Fire Weather Mud Slide Volcanic Ash Miscellaneous ...

Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2015 in the United States

MedlinePlus

... Damage Costs Weather Event Convection Lightning Tornado Thunderstorm Wind Hail Extreme Temperatures Cold Heat Flood Flash Flood ... Drought Dust Storm Dust Devil Rain Fog High Wind Waterspout Fire Weather Mud Slide Volcanic Ash Miscellaneous ...

Probabilistic discrimination between liquid rainfall events, hailstorms, biomass burning and industrial fires from C-Band Radar Polarimetric Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valencia, J. M.; Sepúlveda, J.; Hoyos, C.; Herrera, L.

2017-12-01

Characterization and identification of fire and hailstorm events using weather radar data in a tropical complex topography region is an important task in risk management and agriculture. Polarimetric variables from a C-Band Dual polarization weather radar have potential uses in particle classification, due to the relationship their sensitivity to shape, spatial orientation, size and fall behavior of particles. In this sense, three forest fires and two chemical fires were identified for the Áburra Valley regions. Measurements were compared between each fire event type and with typical data radar retrievals for liquid precipitation events. Results of this analysis show different probability density functions for each type of event according to the particles present in them. This is very important and useful result for early warning systems to avoid precipitation false alarms during fire events within the study region, as well as for the early detection of fires using radar retrievals in remote cases. The comparative methodology is extended to hailstorm cases. Complementary sensors like laser precipitation sensors (LPM) disdrometers and meteorological stations were used to select dates of solid precipitation occurrence. Then, in this dates weather radar data variables were taken in pixels surrounding the stations and solid precipitation polar values were statistically compared with liquid precipitation values. Spectrum precipitation measured by LPM disdrometer helps to define typical features like particles number, fall velocities and diameters for both precipitation types. In addition, to achieve a complete hailstorm characterization, other meteorological variables were analyzed: wind field from meteorological stations and radar wind profiler, profiling data from Micro Rain Radar (MRR), and thermodynamic data from a microwave radiometer.

Fire and climate variation in western North America from fire-scar and tree-ring networks

Treesearch

Donald A. Falk; E. K. Heyerdahl; P. M. Brown; T. W. Swetnam; E. K. Sutherland; Z. Gedalof; L. Yocom; T. J. Brown

2010-01-01

Fire regimes (i.e., the pattern, frequency and intensity of fire in a region) reflect a complex interplay of bottom-up and top-down controls (Lertzman et al., 1998; Mc Kenzie et al., in press). Bottom-up controls include local variations in topographic, fuel and weather factors at the time of a burn (e.g., fuel moisture and continuity, ignition density and local wind...

Validation of BlueSky Smoke Prediction System using surface and satellite observations during major wildland fire events in Northern California

Treesearch

Lesley Fusina; Sharon Zhong; Julide Koracin; Tim Brown; Annie Esperanza; Leland Tarney; Haiganoush Preisler

2007-01-01

The BlueSky Smoke Prediction System developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, AirFire Team under the National Fire Plan is a modeling framework that integrates tools, knowledge of fuels, moisture, combustion, emissions, plume dynamics, and weather to produce real-time predictions of the cumulative impacts of smoke from wildfires, prescribed fires...

NWS Turn Around Don't Drown Program, Signs and Resources

Science.gov Websites

Temperatures Records Astronomical Data WEATHER SAFETY Safety Campaigns Air Quality Cold Drought Floods Fog Heat Wind Safety Wildland Fires Winter Weather INFORMATION CENTER Weather-Ready Nation StormReady Centers Products and Services Contact Us Glossary flood navigation bar-top Flood Safety Flood Safety Flood

Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

2010-05-01

Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations and ignition probability grids (1000 x 1000 m) built from historical fire data (1995-2007). The simulation outputs were then examined to understand relationships between burn probability and specific vegetation types and ignition sources. Wildfire threats to specific values of human interest were quantified to map landscape patterns of wildfire risk. The simulation outputs also allowed us to differentiate between areas of the landscape that were progenitors of fires versus "victims" of large fires. The results provided spatially explicit data on wildfire likelihood and intensity that can be used in a variety of strategic and tactical planning forums to mitigate wildfire threats to human and other values in the Mediterranean Basin.

Characterising resource use and potential inefficiencies during large-fire suppression in the western US

Treesearch

Hari Katuwal; Christopher J. Dunn; David E. Calkin

2017-01-01

Currently, limited research on large-fire suppression effectiveness suggests fire managers may over-allocate resources relative to values to be protected. Coupled with observations that weather may be more important than resource abundance to achieve control objectives, resource use may be driven more by risk aversion than efficiency. To explore this potential, we...

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Modeling fuel consumption

Treesearch

Roger D. Ottmar

2014-01-01

Fuel consumption specifies the amount of vegetative biomass consumed during wildland fire. It is a two-stage process of pyrolysis and combustion that occurs simultaneously and at different rates depending on the characteristics and condition of the fuel, weather, topography, and in the case of prescribed fire, ignition rate and pattern. Fuel consumption is the basic...

Wildfire risk estimation in the Mediterranean area

Treesearch

A.A. Ager; H.K. Preisler; B. Arca; D Spano; M. Salis

2014-01-01

We analyzed wildland fire occurrence and size data from Sardinia, Italy, and Corsica, France, to examine spatiotemporal patterns of fire occurrence in relation to weather, land use, anthropogenic features, and time of year. Fires on these islands are largely human caused and can be attributed to negligence, agro-pastoral land use, and arson. Of particular interest was...

Tamm Review: Shifting global fire regimes: Lessons from reburns and research needs

Treesearch

Susan J. Prichard; Camille S. Stevens-Rumann; Paul F. Hessburg

2017-01-01

Across the globe, rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns have caused persistent regional droughts, lengthened fire seasons, and increased the number of weather-driven extreme fire events. Because wildfires currently impact an increasing proportion of the total area burned, land managers need to better understand reburns – in which previously burned...

Relationships between fire frequency and woody canopy cover in a semi-arid African savanna

Treesearch

Andrew T. Hudak; Bruce H. Brockett

2003-01-01

Landscape-scale fire patterns result from complex interactions among weather, ignition sources, vegetation type and the biophysical environment (Hargrove et al. 2000, Morgan et al. 2001, Keane et al. 2002, Hudak, Fairbanks & Brockett in press). Patch characteristics (e.g. woody canopy cover) influence fire characteristics, which in turn influence patch...

46 CFR 35.30-5 - Fires, matches, and smoking-TB/ALL.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Fires, matches, and smoking-TB/ALL. 35.30-5 Section 35... Rules § 35.30-5 Fires, matches, and smoking—TB/ALL. (a) General. In making the determinations required... reasonable safety during the loading operation. (c) Smoking. Smoking is prohibited on the weather decks of...

46 CFR 35.30-5 - Fires, matches, and smoking-TB/ALL.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Fires, matches, and smoking-TB/ALL. 35.30-5 Section 35... Rules § 35.30-5 Fires, matches, and smoking—TB/ALL. (a) General. In making the determinations required... reasonable safety during the loading operation. (c) Smoking. Smoking is prohibited on the weather decks of...

46 CFR 35.30-5 - Fires, matches, and smoking-TB/ALL.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Fires, matches, and smoking-TB/ALL. 35.30-5 Section 35... Rules § 35.30-5 Fires, matches, and smoking—TB/ALL. (a) General. In making the determinations required... reasonable safety during the loading operation. (c) Smoking. Smoking is prohibited on the weather decks of...

46 CFR 35.30-5 - Fires, matches, and smoking-TB/ALL.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Fires, matches, and smoking-TB/ALL. 35.30-5 Section 35... Rules § 35.30-5 Fires, matches, and smoking—TB/ALL. (a) General. In making the determinations required... reasonable safety during the loading operation. (c) Smoking. Smoking is prohibited on the weather decks of...

46 CFR 35.30-5 - Fires, matches, and smoking-TB/ALL.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Fires, matches, and smoking-TB/ALL. 35.30-5 Section 35... Rules § 35.30-5 Fires, matches, and smoking—TB/ALL. (a) General. In making the determinations required... reasonable safety during the loading operation. (c) Smoking. Smoking is prohibited on the weather decks of...

Prescribed burning with spot fires in the Georgia Coastal Plain

Treesearch

R. W. Johansen

1984-01-01

The use of prescribed fire in the management of pine forests is common throughout much of the South, but one recurring problem that worries the forest landowner is not having enough suitable burning weather to satisfactorily complete all scheduled fires. Being able to burn areas considerably faster, without causing undue damage, could be a solution.

Potential fire behavior in California: an atlas and guide for forest and brushland managers

Treesearch

Bill C. Ryan

1984-01-01

Potential fire characteristics can be estimated as functions of weather, fuel, and terrain slope. Such information is needed by forest and other land managers--especially for anticipating fire suppression needs and planning prescribed burns. To provide this information, an Atlas has been developed for California. The Atlas includes statistical analyses of spread...

Improving Large-scale Biomass Burning Carbon Consumption and Emissions Estimates in the Former Soviet Union based on Fire Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westberg, D. J.; Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N.; Parfenova, E. I.; Kukavskaya, E.; de Groot, B.; McRae, D.; Conard, S. G.; Stackhouse, P. W., Jr.

2012-12-01

Estimating the amount of biomass burned during fire events is challenging, particularly in remote and diverse regions, like those of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Historically, we have typically assumed 25 tons of carbon per hectare (tC/ha) is emitted, however depending on the ecosystem and severity, biomass burning emissions can range from 2 to 75 tC/ha. Ecosystems in the FSU span from the tundra through the taiga to the forest-steppe, steppe and desserts and include the extensive West Siberian lowlands, permafrost-lain forests and agricultural lands. Excluding this landscape disparity results in inaccurate emissions estimates and incorrect assumptions in the transport of these emissions. In this work, we present emissions based on a hybrid ecosystem map and explicit estimates of fuel that consider the depth of burning based on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Specifically, the ecosystem map is a fusion of satellite-based data, a detailed ecosystem map and Alexeyev and Birdsey carbon storage data, which is used to build carbon databases that include the forest overstory and understory, litter, peatlands and soil organic material for the FSU. We provide a range of potential carbon consumption estimates for low- to high-severity fires across the FSU that can be used with fire weather indices to more accurately estimate fire emissions. These data can be incorporated at ecoregion and administrative territory scales and are optimized for use in large-scale Chemical Transport Models. Additionally, paired with future climate scenarios and ecoregion cover, these carbon consumption data can be used to estimate potential emissions.

[Change trends of summer fire danger in great Xing' an Mountains forest region of Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China under climate change].

PubMed

Yang, Guang; Shu, Li-Fu; Di, Xue-Ying

2012-11-01

By using Delta and WGEN downscaling methods and Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index, this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of summer fire in Great Xing' an Mountains forest region of Heilongjiang Province in 1966-2010, estimated the change trends of the summer fire danger in 2010-2099, compared the differences of the forest fire in summer, spring, and autumn, and proposed the prevention and control strategies of the summer fire based on the fire environment. Under the background of climate warming, the summer forest fire in the region in 2000-2010 showed a high incidence trend. In foreseeable future, the summer forest fire across the region in 2010-2099, as compared to that in the baseline period 1961-1990, would be increased by 34%, and the increment would be obviously greater than that of spring and autumn fire. Relative to that in 1961-1990, the summer fire in 2010-2099 under both SRES A2a and SRES B2a scenarios would have an increasing trend, and, with the lapse of time, the trend would be more evident, and the area with high summer fire would become wider and wider. Under the scenario of SRES A2a, the summer fire by the end of the 21st century would be doubled, as compared to that in 1961-1990, and the area with high summer fire would be across the region. In the characteristics of fire source, attributes of forest fuel, and fire weather conditions, the summer forest fire was different from the spring and autumn forest fire, and thus, the management of fire source and forest fuel load as well as the forest fire forecast (mid-long term forecast in particular) in the region should be strengthened to control the summer forest fire.

The analysis of a complex fire event using multispaceborne observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrei, Simona; Carstea, Emil; Marmureanu, Luminita; Ene, Dragos; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Nicolae, Doina; Konsta, Dimitra; Amiridis, Vassilis; Proestakis, Emmanouil

2018-04-01

This study documents a complex fire event that occurred on October 2016, in Middle East belligerent area. Two fire outbreaks were detected by different spacecraft monitoring instruments on board of TERRA, CALIPSO and AURA Earth Observation missions. Link with local weather conditions was examined using ERA Interim Reanalysis and CAMS datasets. The detection of the event by multiple sensors enabled a detailed characterization of fires and the comparison with different observational data.

Storm Prediction Center Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on May 27,

Science.gov Websites

National RADAR Product Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm information in MS-Word or PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic

Assessing landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources in a Mediterranean area.

PubMed

Alcasena, Fermín J; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

2015-05-01

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km(2) located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

Fire risk and air pollution assessment during the 2007 wildfire events in Greece using the COSMO-ART atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athanasopoulou, E.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Vogel, H.; Rieger, D.; Knote, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Vogel, B.; Karali, A.

2012-04-01

During 2007, Greece experienced an extreme summer and the worst natural hazard in its modern history. Soil dehydration, following a prolonged dry period in combination with hot temperatures and strong winds, yielded favorable conditions for the ignition and spread of wild fires that burnt approximately 200,000 ha of vegetated land (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009; Sifakis et al., 2011). The relationship between meteorology and fire potential can be provided by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is already found applicable in the fire activity of the Mediterranean region (Carvalho et al., 2008). However, lack of meteorological data or remote fire spots can be sources of uncertainties for fire risk estimation. In addition to the direct fire damage, these fires produced large quantities of gaseous air pollutants and particles (PM10) dispersed over the area of Greece. Indeed, PM10 concentration measurements showed two pollution episodes over Athens during late August and early September, 2007 (Liu et al., 2009). Nevertheless, these measurements neither show the large spatial extent of fire effects nor reveal its important role on atmospheric chemistry. In the current study, the application of the atmospheric model COSMO-ART is used to investigate the issues addressed above. COSMO-ART (Vogel et al. 2009) is a regional chemistry transport model (ART stands for Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) online-coupled to the COSMO regional numerical weather prediction and climate model (Baldauf et al. 2011). The current simulations are performed between August 15 and September 15 over Greece with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical extend up to 20 km. The initial and boundary meteorological conditions are derived from a coarser COSMO simulation performed by the German Weather Service. Fire emissions are retrieved from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (van der Werf et al., 2010). The anthropogenic emission database used is the TNO/MACC (Kuenen et al. 2011), while biogenic emissions are calculated online (Vogel et al. 1995). The FWI is calculated from air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation data obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service for several sites in proximity to the fire event areas. In parallel, these data serve as evaluation for the respective model predictions. The satisfactory comparison results enable the FWI calculation using the model data over the burnt areas, where observations are missing. The effect of these fire events on atmospheric chemistry is estimated by analyzing the predictions not only for the mainly affected primary species (carbon monoxide, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and elemental carbon), but also for the secondary pollutants (ozone, organic and nitrate aerosol). The competence of COSMO-ART mass predictions is evaluated by comparing PM10 outputs with published literature results. The weather conditions during the 2007 wildfire events have already been assessed as a typical summertime meteorological regime during the latter part of the century (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009). Therefore, the results presented here can be viewed as representative of a fire event likely to occur by then. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIMRUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010-265192.

Forecasting European Wildfires Today and in the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro Abellan, Maria; Porras Alegre, Ignasi; María Sole, Josep; Gálvez, Pedro; Bielski, Conrad; Nurmi, Pertti

2017-04-01

Society as a whole is increasingly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters due to extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change. The increased frequency of wildfires is not only a result of a changing climate, but wildfires themselves also produce a significant amount of greenhouse gases that, in-turn, further contribute to global warming. I-REACT (Improving Resilience to Emergencies through Advanced Cyber Technologies) is an innovation project funded by the European Commission , which aims to use social media, smartphones and wearables to improve natural disaster management by integrating existing services, both local and European, into a platform that supports the entire emergency management cycle. In order to assess the impact of climate change on wildfire hazards, METEOSIM designed two different System Processes (SP) that will be integrated into the I-REACT service that can provide information on a variety of time scales. SP1 - Climate Change Impact The climate change impact on climate variables related to fires is calculated by building an ensemble based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CORDEX data. A validation and an Empirical-Statistical Downscaling (ESD) calibration are done to assess the changes in the past of the climatic variables related to wildfires (temperature, precipitation, wind, relative humidity and Fire Weather Index). Calculations in the trend and the frequency of extreme events of those variables are done for three time scales: near-term (2011-2040), mid-term (2041-2070) and long term (2071-2100). SP2 - Operational daily forecast of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Using ensemble data from the ECMWF and from the GLAMEPS (multi-model ensemble) models, both supplied by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and its index components are produced for each ensemble member within a wide forecast time range, from a few hours up to 10 days resulting in a probabilistic output of the FWI for different regions in Europe. This work will improve the currently available information to various wildfire information users such as fire departments, the civil protection, local authorities, etc., where accurate and reliable information in extreme weather situations are vital for improving planning and risk management.

The effect of temperature on arson incidence in Toronto, Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiannakoulias, Niko; Kielasinska, Ewa

2016-05-01

Studies of crime and weather have largely excluded arson from empirical and theoretical consideration, yet weather could influence arson frequency over short time frames, influencing the motivation and activity of potential arsonists, as well as the physical possibility of fire ignition. This study aims to understand the role of weather on urban arson in order to determine its role in explaining short-term variations in arson frequency. We use data reported to the Ontario Fire Marshall's office of arson events in the City of Toronto between 1996 and 2007 to estimate the effect of temperature, precipitation, wind conditions and air pressure on arson events while controlling for the effects of holidays, weekends and other calendar-related events. We find that temperature has an independent association with daily arson frequency, as do precipitation and air pressure. In this study area, cold weather has a larger influence on arson frequency than hot weather. There is also some evidence that extremely hot and cold temperatures may be associated with lower day-time arson frequency, while night-time arson seems to have a simpler positive linear association with temperature.

The effect of temperature on arson incidence in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Yiannakoulias, Niko; Kielasinska, Ewa

2016-05-01

Studies of crime and weather have largely excluded arson from empirical and theoretical consideration, yet weather could influence arson frequency over short time frames, influencing the motivation and activity of potential arsonists, as well as the physical possibility of fire ignition. This study aims to understand the role of weather on urban arson in order to determine its role in explaining short-term variations in arson frequency. We use data reported to the Ontario Fire Marshall's office of arson events in the City of Toronto between 1996 and 2007 to estimate the effect of temperature, precipitation, wind conditions and air pressure on arson events while controlling for the effects of holidays, weekends and other calendar-related events. We find that temperature has an independent association with daily arson frequency, as do precipitation and air pressure. In this study area, cold weather has a larger influence on arson frequency than hot weather. There is also some evidence that extremely hot and cold temperatures may be associated with lower day-time arson frequency, while night-time arson seems to have a simpler positive linear association with temperature.

A statistical model to estimate the local vulnerability to severe weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pardowitz, Tobias

2018-06-01

We present a spatial analysis of weather-related fire brigade operations in Berlin. By comparing operation occurrences to insured losses for a set of severe weather events we demonstrate the representativeness and usefulness of such data in the analysis of weather impacts on local scales. We investigate factors influencing the local rate of operation occurrence. While depending on multiple factors - which are often not available - we focus on publicly available quantities. These include topographic features, land use information based on satellite data and information on urban structure based on data from the OpenStreetMap project. After identifying suitable predictors such as housing coverage or local density of the road network we set up a statistical model to be able to predict the average occurrence frequency of local fire brigade operations. Such model can be used to determine potential hotspots for weather impacts even in areas or cities where no systematic records are available and can thus serve as a basis for a broad range of tools or applications in emergency management and planning.

Estimating wildland fire rate of spread in a spatially nonuniform environment

Treesearch

Francis M Fujioka

1985-01-01

Estimating rate of fire spread is a key element in planning for effective fire control. Land managers use the Rothermel spread model, but the model assumptions are violated when fuel, weather, and topography are nonuniform. This paper compares three averaging techniques--arithmetic mean of spread rates, spread based on mean fuel conditions, and harmonic mean of spread...

Fire Prevention Efforts in the Northwest

Treesearch

A.W. Lindenmuth; J.J. Keetch

1952-01-01

The frequency of forest fires in 13 northeastern states dropped about one-half from 1943 to 1950, exclusive of the fluctuations due to weather. The average downward trend and the annual observations from which the trend is determined are shown graphically in the lower chart on the other side of this page. Each dot on the chart is the ratio of fire occurrence (actual...

Fuel loadings in southwestern ecosystems of the United States

Treesearch

Stephen S. Sackett; Sally M Haase

1996-01-01

Natural forest fuel loadings cause extreme fire behavior during dry, windy weather experienced during most fire seasons in the Southwest. Fire severity is also exacerbated from burning heavy fuels, including heavy humus layers on the forest floor. Ponderosa pine and mixed conifer stands possess more than 21.7 and 44.1 tons per acre of total forest floor fuel,...

Vegetation, topography and daily weather influenced burn severity in central Idaho and western Montana forests

Treesearch

Donovan S. Birch; Penelope Morgan; Crystal A. Kolden; John T. Abatzoglou; Gregory K. Dillon; Andrew T. Hudak; Alistair M. S. Smith

2015-01-01

Burn severity as inferred from satellite-derived differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) is useful for evaluating fire impacts on ecosystems but the environmental controls on burn severity across large forest fires are both poorly understood and likely to be different than those influencing fire extent. We related dNBR to environmental variables including vegetation,...

The interannual variability of the Haines Index over North America

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Joseph J. Charney

2013-01-01

The Haines index (HI) is a fire-weather index that is widely used as an indicator of the potential for dry, low-static-stability air in the lower atmosphere to contribute to erratic fire behavior or large fire growth. This study examines the interannual variability of HI over North America and its relationship to indicators of large-scale circulation anomalies. The...

Turbulent kinetic energy during wildfires in the north central and north-eastern US

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bian

2010-01-01

The suite of operational fire-weather indices available for assessing the atmospheric potential for extreme fire behaviour typically does not include indices that account for atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence or wind gustiness that can increase the erratic behaviour of fires. As a first step in testing the feasibility of using a quantitative measure of turbulence...

Designing seasonal initial attack resource deployment and dispatch rules using a two-stage stochastic programming procedure

Treesearch

Yu Wei; Michael Bevers; Erin J. Belval

2015-01-01

Initial attack dispatch rules can help shorten fire suppression response times by providing easy-to-follow recommendations based on fire weather, discovery time, location, and other factors that may influence fire behavior and the appropriate response. A new procedure is combined with a stochastic programming model and tested in this study for designing initial attack...

Factors influencing fire severity under moderate burning conditions in the Klamath Mountains, northern California, USA

Treesearch

Becky L. Estes; Eric E. Knapp; Carl N. Skinner; Jay D. Miller; Haiganoush K. Preisler

2017-01-01

Topography, weather, and fuels are known factors driving fire behavior, but the degree to which each contributes to the spatial pattern of fire severity under different conditions remains poorly understood. The variability in severity within the boundaries of the 2006 wildfires that burned in the Klamath Mountains, northern California, along with data on burn...

Home destruction examination: Grass Valley Fire, Lake Arrowhead, California

Treesearch

Jack D. Cohen; Richard D. Stratton

2008-01-01

The Grass Valley Fire started October 22, 2007 at approximately 0508, one-mile west of Lake Arrowhead in the San Bernardino Mountains. Fuel and weather conditions were extreme due to drought, dry Santa Ana winds, and chaparral and conifer vegetation on steep terrain. The fire proceeded south through the Grass Valley drainage one-mile before impacting an area of dense...

Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wildfire-start data set from the western United States (198696)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, P.J.; Hostetler, S.W.; Shafer, S.L.; Holman, J.O.; Solomon, A.M.

2008-01-01

The temporal and spatial structure of 332 404 daily fire-start records from the western United States for the period 1986 through 1996 is illustrated using several complimentary visualisation techniques. We supplement maps and time series plots with Hovmo??ller diagrams that reduce the spatial dimensionality of the daily data in order to reveal the underlying space?time structure. The mapped distributions of all lightning- and human-started fires during the 11-year interval show similar first-order patterns that reflect the broad-scale distribution of vegetation across the West and the annual cycle of climate. Lightning-started fires are concentrated in the summer half-year and occur in widespread outbreaks that last a few days and reflect coherent weather-related controls. In contrast, fires started by humans occur throughout the year and tend to be concentrated in regions surrounding large-population centres or intensive-agricultural areas. Although the primary controls of human-started fires are their location relative to burnable fuel and the level of human activity, spatially coherent, weather-related variations in their incidence can also be noted. ?? IAWF 2008.

El Niño and its impact on fire weather conditions in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Jason C.; Scott, Carven A.; Hufford, Gary L.; Fleming, Michael D.

2001-01-01

Examining the relationship of El Niño to weather patterns in Alaska shows wide climate variances that depend on the teleconnection between the tropics and the northern latitudes. However, the weather patterns exhibited in Alaska during and just after moderate to strong El Niño episodes are generally consistent: above normal temperature and precipitation along the Alaskan coast, and above normal temperature and below normal precipitation in the interior, especially through the winter. The warm, dry conditions in the Alaskan interior increase summer wildfire potential. Statistics on the area burned since 1940 show that 15 out of 17 of the biggest fire years occurred during a moderate to strong El Niño episode. These 15 years account for nearly 63% of the total area burned over the last 58 years. Evidence points to increased dry thunderstorms and associated lightning activity during an El Niño episode; the percentage of total area burned by lightning caused fires during five episodes increased from a normal of less than 40% to a high of about 96%.

An examination of the sensitivity of numerically simulated wildfires to low-level atmospheric stability and moisture, and the consequences for the Haines Index

Treesearch

Mary Ann Jenkins

2002-01-01

The Haines Index, an operational fire-weather index introduced in 1988 and based on the observed stability and moisture content of the near-surface atmosphere, has been a useful indicator of the potential for high-risk fires in low wind conditions and flat terrain. The Haines Index is of limited use, however, as a predictor of actual fire behavior. To develop a fire-...

Predicting streamflow response to fire-induced landcover change: implications of parameter uncertainty in the MIKE SHE model.

PubMed

McMichael, Christine E; Hope, Allen S

2007-08-01

Fire is a primary agent of landcover transformation in California semi-arid shrubland watersheds, however few studies have examined the impacts of fire and post-fire succession on streamflow dynamics in these basins. While it may seem intuitive that larger fires will have a greater impact on streamflow response than smaller fires in these watersheds, the nature of these relationships has not been determined. The effects of fire size on seasonal and annual streamflow responses were investigated for a medium-sized basin in central California using a modified version of the MIKE SHE model which had been previously calibrated and tested for this watershed using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. Model simulations were made for two contrasting periods, wet and dry, in order to assess whether fire size effects varied with weather regime. Results indicated that seasonal and annual streamflow response increased nearly linearly with fire size in a given year under both regimes. Annual flow response was generally higher in wetter years for both weather regimes, however a clear trend was confounded by the effect of stand age. These results expand our understanding of the effects of fire size on hydrologic response in chaparral watersheds, but it is important to note that the majority of model predictions were largely indistinguishable from the predictive uncertainty associated with the calibrated model - a key finding that highlights the importance of analyzing hydrologic predictions for altered landcover conditions in the context of model uncertainty. Future work is needed to examine how alternative decisions (e.g., different likelihood measures) may influence GLUE-based MIKE SHE streamflow predictions following different size fires, and how the effect of fire size on streamflow varies with other factors such as fire location.

Mid-Late Holocene climate variability and fire events in a High Atlantic mountain area in NW Iberia (Picos de Europa)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Fernández, Jesus; Nieuwendam, Alexandre; Oliva, Marc; Lopes, Vera; Cruces, Anabela; Conceição Freitas, Maria; Janeiro, Ana; López-Sáez, José Antonio; Gallinar, David; García-Hernández, Cristina

2016-04-01

In this contribution we present data from a 182 cm-long sedimentary sequence collected in the mid-altitude area of Belbín, a depression dammed by a moraine during the Last Glaciation in the Western Massif of the Picos de Europa (Cantabrian Mountains, NW Spain), in order to reconstruct the environmental changes and the conditioning factors of these changes occurred during the Mid-Late Holocene in this mountain area. The uppermost 60 cm of the sediments have been studied using a multi-proxy analysis including the texture, the organic matter content, the micromorphology of the quartz grains, and the concentration of charcoal particles. The geochronological framework of the environmental and climatic events for the Mid-late Holocene was established with three AMS 14C dates. During the last 6.7 ky cal BP a sequence of environmental changes took place in Belbin area driven by both warmer (between 6.7-5, 3.7-3, 2.6-1.1, 0.87-0.51 and since 0.01 ky cal BP) and colder stages (between 5-3.7, 3-2.6, 1.1-0.87 and 0.51 to 0.01 ky cal BP). The warmer stages were defined by the prevalence of chemical weathering of the quartz grains and relative increases of the C/N ratio. Conversely, during colder stages physical weathering of the quartz grains particles prevailed and the C/N values were lower. During the Late Holocene the sequence shows a progressive increase in the organic matter content, which may be associated with higher temperatures. Higher or lower concentration of charcoal particles according to warmer or colder climatic conditions is not detected, so the fires that have occurred in the area were likely to be related to human-induced fire management for grazing purposes. The period with the most frequent fire events occurred between 3.5 and 3 ky cal BP during the Bronze Age. Other significant peaks of charcoal particles occurred at ca. 2.6, 0.71 and 0.36 ky cal BP. This study shows evidence that the environmental changes occurred during the Mid-Late Holocene in this area of the Cantabrian Mountains are both conditioned by climate variability and human activity. Also, it has been demonstrated the relationship between the type of quartz grains, the weathering intensity (chemical and physical) and the concentrations of charcoal particles. There is a clear relation between the samples that evidence high intensity of chemical and physical weathering with higher average of charcoal particles concentration. Climatic conditions have an important role in weathering intensity, through the combination of silt abundance and cryogenic weathering, but in our study this is not the case, therefore fire most possibly modified local environmental conditions making quartz grains more vulnerable to post-fire situations. This emphasizes the important role of the fires in the micromorphology of quartz grains.

Perspectives on Fire Research Collaboration in Siberia: What Have We Learned; Why Does It Matter; and Where Do We Go from Here?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conard, S. G.

2010-12-01

My first experience of the vast taiga forests of Russia, and my first chance to meet and work with Russian fire researchers, was at a 1993 conference and field experiment planned jointly by Johann G. Goldammer from Germany and Valentin V. Furyaev from Russia. This meeting was the beginning of a long and fruitful collaboration among US, Canadian, and Russian fire scientists. We all became increasingly aware of the global signifiance of the circumpolar boreal zone, and of the need for better information on the extent and effects of boreal fires. Wildfires are the dominant disturbance regime in the Russian boreal zone, burning 10 to 20 million hectares per year. These fires are a significant source of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols. Our research team published some of the first remote-sensing based estimates of the extent of fire in Russia and of the potential variability in emissions that could result from different burning conditions. Through a series of 20 prescribed burns we were able to mimic a wide range of burning conditions and obtain information on the impacts on soils, vegetation, and fuel consumption. Based on these experimental fires, we have modeled the effects of weather and fuels on fuel consumption and other factors, and related fire characteristics to emissions, carbon stocks, and soil and vegetation processes. For the past 10 years, we have focused on the ecosystem effects of fires of varying severity in the Scots pine and mixed larch forests of central Siberia, on improved remote-sensing based estimates of burned area and fire effects, and on relating fire weather indices to fire potential and fuel consumption. Logging is an increasingly important disturbance in Russia’s forests, and logged sites, with their high fuel loads seem particularly susceptible to fire. We are currently studying interactions between logging and fire, with an emphasis on the differences in fuel consumption, emissions, and carbon stocks when fires burn in logged and unlogged areas. Fire activity and emissions are projected to increase substantially in the boreal zone as climate warms. We are currently working to develop a 30-yr fire record for Siberia based on satellite data. We will integrate these data with historic fire weather, emissions, and vegetation data to estimate fuel consumption and emissions from fires in Siberia from 1980 to 2010. We will reconstruct past fire regimes using dendrochronology data for selected sub-regions. The relationships derived through this work will provide a basis for projecting the future effects of changing climate on fire patterns, emissions and carbon cycle in Siberia. This project will provide critical information for input to global change models and for analysis of the regional and global impacts of changing fire regimes in the boreal zone.

Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riley, Karin L.; Loehman, Rachel A.

2016-01-01

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of frequency and severity, and depending on the extent to which ecosystems are adapted) may maintain or restore ecosystem functionality; however, in areas that are highly departed from historical fire regimes or where there is disequilibrium between climate and vegetation, ecosystems may be rapidly and persistently altered by wildfires, especially those that burn under extreme conditions.

Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

2018-01-01

This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

Factors influencing fire behaviour in shrublands of different stand ages and the implications for using prescribed burning to reduce wildfire risk.

PubMed

Baeza, M J; De Luís, M; Raventós, J; Escarré, A

2002-06-01

Fire behaviour under experimental conditions is described in nine Mediterranean gorse shrublands ranging from 3-12 years of age with different fuel loads. Significant differences in the fire-line intensity, fuel load and rate of fire spread have been found to be related to the stage of development of the communities. Fire spread is correlated with fuel moisture using multiple regression techniques. Differences in fuel moisture between mature and young communities under moderate weather conditions have been found. The lower moisture content identified in the mature shrubland is due both to the decreasing moisture content of senescent shrubland in some species, mainly in live fractions of Ulex parviflorus Pour. fuel, and to a substantial increase in dead fuel fractions with low percentages of moisture content. The result is that the older the shrubland is, the greater will be the decrease in the total moisture content of the vegetation. In these moderate weather conditions, the fire intensity of the mature community was as high as the maximum intensity recommended for prescribed fires. This fact seems to indicate that, even under moderate conditions, prescribed burning as an alternative management tool in the mature shrubland must always take into account fuel control; on the other hand, this technique could be applied more easily when the shrubland is at an intermediate growth stage (4-5 years of age). Therefore, more frequent low-intensity prescribed fires are indicated to abate the risk of catastrophic fire.

Web service tools in the era of forest fire management and elimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poursanidis, Dimitris; Kochilakis, Giorgos; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Varella, Vasiliki; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Eftychidis, Giorgos; Lagouvardos, Kostas

2014-10-01

Wildfires in forests and forested areas in South Europe, North America, Central Asia and Australia are a diachronic threat with crucial ecological, economic and social impacts. Last decade the frequency, the magnitude and the intensity of fires have increased even more because of the climate change. An efficient response to such disasters requires an effective planning, with an early detection system of the ignition area and an accurate prediction of fire propagation to support the rapid response mechanisms. For this reason, information systems able to predict and visualize the behavior of fires, are valuable tools for fire fighting. Such systems, able also to perform simulations that evaluate the fire development scenarios, based on weather conditions, become valuable Decision Support Tools for fire mitigation planning. A Web-based Information System (WIS) developed in the framework of the FLIRE (Floods and fire risk assessment and management) project, a LIFE+ co-funded by the European Commission research, is presented in this study. The FLIRE WIS use forest fuel maps which have been developed by using generalized fuel maps, satellite data and in-situ observations. Furthermore, it leverages data from meteorological stations and weather forecast from numerical models to feed the fire propagation model with the necessary for the simulations inputs and to visualize the model's results for user defined time periods and steps. The user has real-time access to FLIRE WIS via any web browser from any platform (PC, Laptop, Tablet, Smartphone).

Siberian and North American Biomass Burning Contributions to the Processes that Influenced the 2008 Arctic Aircraft and Satellite Field Campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Stocks, B. J.; Carr, R.; Pierce, R. B.; Natarajan, M.; Fromm, M.

2009-05-01

Current climate change scenarios predict increases in biomass burning in terms of increases in fire frequency, area burned, fire season length and fire season severity, particularly in boreal regions. Climate and weather control fire danger, which strongly influences the severity of fire events, and these in turn, feed back to the climate system through direct and indirect emissions, modifying cloud condensation nuclei and altering albedo (affecting the energy balance) through vegetative land cover change and deposition. Additionally, fire emissions adversely influence air quality and human health downwind of burning. The boreal zone is significant because this region stores the largest reservoir of terrestrial carbon, globally, and will experience climate change impacts earliest. Boreal biomass burning is an integral component to several of the primary goals of the ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) and ARCPAC (Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate) 2008 field campaigns, which include its implication for atmospheric composition and climate, aerosol radiative forcing, and chemical processes with a focus on ozone and aerosols. Both the spring and summer phases of ARCTAS and ARCPAC offered substantial opportunities for sampling fresh and aged biomass burning emissions. However, the extent to which spring biomass burning influenced arctic haze was unexpected, which could inform our knowledge of the formation of arctic haze and the early deposition of black carbon on the icy arctic surface. There is already evidence of increased extreme fire seasons that correlate with warming across the circumboreal zone. In this presentation, we discuss seasonal and annual fire activity and anomalies that relate to the ARCTAS and ARCPAC spring (April 1 - 20) and summer (June 18 - July 13) periods across Siberia and North America, with particular emphasis on fire danger and fire behavior as they relate to smoke emissions. Fire severity and subsequent emission levels are directly related to fire danger conditions, which reflect and incorporate both antecedent and current weather. In this century, it is predicted that fire regime increases will be the catalyst for ecosystem change, which will force ecosystems to move more rapidly towards a new equilibrium with climate. However, the reasons for ecosystem change are often accompanied by social and political drivers of land cover change, which complicate the relationship between fire and weather. For instance, since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, financial support for fire fighting is minimal, communal agricultural lands have been abandoned and a number of species are no longer protected (e.g. Saiga in Kalmykia), and each of these factors strongly influences vegetation cover and fire regimes, leading to a complicated interaction of processes that control fire and its affect on the larger environment.

A review of the main driving factors of forest fire ignition over Europe.

PubMed

Ganteaume, Anne; Camia, Andrea; Jappiot, Marielle; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Long-Fournel, Marlène; Lampin, Corinne

2013-03-01

Knowledge of the causes of forest fires, and of the main driving factors of ignition, is an indispensable step towards effective fire prevention policies. This study analyses the factors driving forest fire ignition in the Mediterranean region including the most common human and environmental factors used for modelling in the European context. Fire ignition factors are compared to spatial and temporal variations of fire occurrence in the region, then are compared to results obtained in other areas of the world, with a special focus on North America (US and Canada) where a significant number of studies has been carried out on this topic. The causes of forest fires are varied and their distribution differs among countries, but may also differ spatially and temporally within the same country. In Europe, and especially in the Mediterranean basin, fires are mostly human-caused mainly due arson. The distance to transport networks and the distance to urban or recreation areas are among the most frequently used human factors in modelling exercises and the Wildland-Urban Interface is increasingly taken into account in the modelling of fire occurrence. Depending on the socio-economic context of the region concerned, factors such as the unemployment rate or variables linked to agricultural activity can explain the ignition of intentional and unintentional fires. Regarding environmental factors, those related to weather, fuel and topography are the most significant drivers of ignition of forest fires, especially in Mediterranean-type regions. For both human and lightning-caused fires, there is a geographical gradient of fire ignition, mainly due to variations in climate and fuel composition but also to population density for instance. The timing of fires depends on their causes. In populated areas, the timing of human-caused fires is closely linked to human activities and peaks in the afternoon whereas, in remote areas, the timing of lightning-caused fires is more linked to weather conditions and the season, with most such fires occurring in summer.

A Review of the Main Driving Factors of Forest Fire Ignition Over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganteaume, Anne; Camia, Andrea; Jappiot, Marielle; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Long-Fournel, Marlène; Lampin, Corinne

2013-03-01

Knowledge of the causes of forest fires, and of the main driving factors of ignition, is an indispensable step towards effective fire prevention policies. This study analyses the factors driving forest fire ignition in the Mediterranean region including the most common human and environmental factors used for modelling in the European context. Fire ignition factors are compared to spatial and temporal variations of fire occurrence in the region, then are compared to results obtained in other areas of the world, with a special focus on North America (US and Canada) where a significant number of studies has been carried out on this topic. The causes of forest fires are varied and their distribution differs among countries, but may also differ spatially and temporally within the same country. In Europe, and especially in the Mediterranean basin, fires are mostly human-caused mainly due arson. The distance to transport networks and the distance to urban or recreation areas are among the most frequently used human factors in modelling exercises and the Wildland-Urban Interface is increasingly taken into account in the modelling of fire occurrence. Depending on the socio-economic context of the region concerned, factors such as the unemployment rate or variables linked to agricultural activity can explain the ignition of intentional and unintentional fires. Regarding environmental factors, those related to weather, fuel and topography are the most significant drivers of ignition of forest fires, especially in Mediterranean-type regions. For both human and lightning-caused fires, there is a geographical gradient of fire ignition, mainly due to variations in climate and fuel composition but also to population density for instance. The timing of fires depends on their causes. In populated areas, the timing of human-caused fires is closely linked to human activities and peaks in the afternoon whereas, in remote areas, the timing of lightning-caused fires is more linked to weather conditions and the season, with most such fires occurring in summer.

Evaluation of MM5 model resolution when applied to prediction of national fire danger rating indexes

Treesearch

Jeanne L. Hoadley; Miriam L. Rorig; Larry Bradshaw; Sue A. Ferguson; Kenneth J. Westrick; Scott L. Goodrick; Paul Werth

2006-01-01

Weather predictions from the MM5 mesoscale model were used to compute gridded predictions of National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indexes. The model output was applied to a case study of the 2000 fire season in Northern Idaho and Western Montana to simulate an extreme event. To determine the preferred resolution for automating NFD RS predictions, model...

Influence of weather factors on moisture content of light fuels in forests of the northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

George M. Jemison

1935-01-01

The necessity of forest-fire protection is generally recognized in the United Slates. The tremendous damage done by forest fires each year to valuable timber, watershed cover, forest range, wildlife, recreational facilities, and personal property has impressed upon the people the need for preventing and controlling forest fires so far as this is humanly possible.

Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information

Treesearch

H.K. Preisler; R.E. Burgan; J.C. Eidenshink; J.M. Klaver; R.W. Klaver

2009-01-01

The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i)...

Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Fried; J. Keith Gilless; William J. Riley; Tadashi J. Moody; Clara Simon de Blas; Katharine Hayhoe; Max Mortiz; Scott Stephens; Margaret Torn

2008-01-01

This study focused on how climate change-induced effects on weather will translate into changes in wildland fire severity and outcomes in California, particularly on the effectiveness of initial attack at limiting the number of fires that escape initial attack. The results indicate that subtle shifts in fire behavior of the sort that might be induced by the climate...

Comparison of 1949 summer forest fuel moisture in Oregon and Washington with other years.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1949-01-01

There is much speculation about the competitive severity of the 1949 fire season. Forest fire protection agencies and sponsors of fire prevention campaigns wonder if the large or small acreage burned during the season is a valid measure of the success or failure of their efforts, or whether the burning conditions as influenced by weather were wholly responsible for any...

Forest fuels on organic and associated soils in the Coastal Plain of North Carolina

Treesearch

G. W. Wendel; T. G Storey; G. M. Byram

1962-01-01

The fire problem in the organic soil (pocosin) areas of eastern North Carolina centers a round the frequent and costly blowup wildfires occurring there and the use of fire as a management tool. Under certain combinations of fuel and weather, low intensity fires will suddenly and often unexpectedly multiply their rate of energy output many times . In almost all...

Using Haines Index coupled with fire weather model predicted from high resolution LAM forecasts to asses wildfire extreme behaviour in Southern Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaetani, Francesco; Baptiste Filippi, Jean; Simeoni, Albert; D'Andrea, Mirko

2010-05-01

Haines Index (HI) was developed by USDA Forest Service to measure the atmosphere's contribution to the growth potential of a wildfire. The Haines Index combines two atmospheric factors that are known to have an effect on wildfires: Stability and Dryness. As operational tools, HI proved its ability to predict plume dominated high intensity wildfires. However, since HI does not take into account the fuel continuity, composition and moisture conditions and the effects of wind and topography on fire behaviour, its use as forecasting tool should be carefully considered. In this work we propose the use of HI, predicted from HR Limited Area Model forecasts, coupled with a Fire Weather model (i.e., RISICO system) fully operational in Italy since 2003. RISICO is based on dynamic models able to represent in space and in time the effects that environment and vegetal physiology have on fuels and, in turn, on the potential behaviour of wildfires. The system automatically acquires from remote databases a thorough data-set of input information both of in situ and spatial nature. Meteorological observations, radar data, Limited Area Model weather forecasts, EO data, and fuel data are managed by a Unified Interface able to process a wide set of different data. Specific semi-physical models are used in the system to simulate the dynamics of the fuels (load and moisture contents of dead and live fuel) and the potential fire behaviour (rate of spread and linear intensity). A preliminary validation of this approach will be provided with reference to Sardinia and Corsica Islands, two major islands of the Mediterranean See frequently affected by extreme plume dominated wildfires. A time series of about 3000 wildfires burnt in Sardinia and Corsica in 2007 and 2008 will be used to evaluate the capability of HI coupled with the outputs of the Fire Weather model to forecast the actual risk in time and in space.

Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2014-05-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify threshold values of indices useful to determine the end of the potential fire season due to fuel status. A weather generator linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Sardinia, Italy. Finally, impacts of future climate change on fire season length at local scale were simulated. Results confirmed that the projected climate scenarios over the Mediterranean area will determine an overall increase of the fire season length.

An Accurate Fire-Spread Algorithm in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Using the Level-Set Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Esparza, Domingo; Kosović, Branko; Jiménez, Pedro A.; Coen, Janice L.

2018-04-01

The level-set method is typically used to track and propagate the fire perimeter in wildland fire models. Herein, a high-order level-set method using fifth-order WENO scheme for the discretization of spatial derivatives and third-order explicit Runge-Kutta temporal integration is implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting model wildland fire physics package, WRF-Fire. The algorithm includes solution of an additional partial differential equation for level-set reinitialization. The accuracy of the fire-front shape and rate of spread in uncoupled simulations is systematically analyzed. It is demonstrated that the common implementation used by level-set-based wildfire models yields to rate-of-spread errors in the range 10-35% for typical grid sizes (Δ = 12.5-100 m) and considerably underestimates fire area. Moreover, the amplitude of fire-front gradients in the presence of explicitly resolved turbulence features is systematically underestimated. In contrast, the new WRF-Fire algorithm results in rate-of-spread errors that are lower than 1% and that become nearly grid independent. Also, the underestimation of fire area at the sharp transition between the fire front and the lateral flanks is found to be reduced by a factor of ≈7. A hybrid-order level-set method with locally reduced artificial viscosity is proposed, which substantially alleviates the computational cost associated with high-order discretizations while preserving accuracy. Simulations of the Last Chance wildfire demonstrate additional benefits of high-order accurate level-set algorithms when dealing with complex fuel heterogeneities, enabling propagation across narrow fuel gaps and more accurate fire backing over the lee side of no fuel clusters.

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

PubMed Central

Legg, Colin J.

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2. PMID:27833814

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires.

PubMed

Davies, G Matt; Legg, Colin J

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

CALIOP-based Biomass Burning Smoke Plume Injection Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Choi, H. D.; Fairlie, T. D.; Pouliot, G.; Baker, K. R.; Winker, D. M.; Trepte, C. R.; Szykman, J.

2017-12-01

Carbon and aerosols are cycled between terrestrial and atmosphere environments during fire events, and these emissions have strong feedbacks to near-field weather, air quality, and longer-term climate systems. Fire severity and burned area are under the control of weather and climate, and fire emissions have the potential to alter numerous land and atmospheric processes that, in turn, feedback to and interact with climate systems (e.g., changes in patterns of precipitation, black/brown carbon deposition on ice/snow, alteration in landscape and atmospheric/cloud albedo). If plume injection height is incorrectly estimated, then the transport and deposition of those emissions will also be incorrect. The heights to which smoke is injected governs short- or long-range transport, which influences surface pollution, cloud interaction (altered albedo), and modifies patterns of precipitation (cloud condensation nuclei). We are working with the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) science team and other stakeholder agencies, primarily the Environmental Protection Agency and regional partners, to generate a biomass burning (BB) plume injection height database using multiple platforms, sensors and models (CALIOP, MODIS, NOAA HMS, Langley Trajectory Model). These data have the capacity to provide enhanced smoke plume injection height parameterization in regional, national and international scientific and air quality models. Statistics that link fire behavior and weather to plume rise are crucial for verifying and enhancing plume rise parameterization in local-, regional- and global-scale models used for air quality, chemical transport and climate. Specifically, we will present: (1) a methodology that links BB injection height and CALIOP air parcels to specific fires; (2) the daily evolution of smoke plumes for specific fires; (3) plumes transport and deposited on the Greenland Ice Sheet; and (4) compare CALIOP-derived smoke plume injection to CMAQ modeled smoke plume injection. These results have the potential to provide value to national and international modeling communities (scientific and air quality) and to public land, fire, and air quality management and regulations communities.

Anticipating the severity of the fire season in Northern Portugal using statistical models based on meteorological indices of fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Sílvia A.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Turkman, Kamil F.; Ermida, Sofia L.; Calado, Teresa J.

2017-04-01

Like in other regions of Mediterranean Europe, climate and weather are major drivers of fire activity in Portugal. The aim of the present study is to assess the role played by meteorological factors on inter-annual variability of burned area over a region of Portugal characterized by large fire activity. Monthly cumulated values of burned area in August are obtained from the fire database of ICNF, the Portuguese authority for forests. The role of meteorological factors is characterized by means of Daily Severity Rating, DSR, an index of meteorological fire danger, which is derived from meteorological fields as obtained from ECMWF Interim Reanalysis. The study area is characterized by the predominance of forest, with high percentages of maritime pine and eucalyptus, two species with high flammability in summer. The time series of recorded burned area in August during 1980-2011 is highly correlated (correlation coefficient of 0.93) with the one for whole Portugal. First, a normal distribution model is fitted to the 32-year sample of decimal logarithms of monthly burned area. The model is improved by introducing two covariates:(1) the top-down meteorological factor (DSRtd) which consists of daily cumulated values of DSR since April 1 to July 31 and may be viewed as the cumulated stress on vegetation due to meteorological conditions during the pre-fire season; (2) the bottom-up factor (DSRbu) which consists of the square root of the mean of the squared daily deviations (restricted to days with positive departures of DSR from the corresponding long term mean) and may be viewed as the contribution of days characterized by extreme weather conditions favoring the onset and spreading of wildfires. Three different statistical models are then developed: the "climate anomaly" model, using DSRtd as covariate, the "weather anomaly", using DSRbu as covariate, and the "combined" model using both variables as covariates. These models are used to define background fire danger, fire weather danger and combined fire danger, respectively quantifying the contribution of DSRtd, DSRbu and both covariates to increasing or decreasing the probability of having extremely high/low values of burned area in August. Using the information obtained by the "combined" model it is possible to calculate the minimum/ maximum value of DSRbu for a given year to be modelled as severe/weak. The probability is then made using a normal distribution of the data series of DSRbu, if the probability is below 20% than the year will be considered as not belonging to that classification. This classification is able to correctly identify 34 out of the 36 years studied. This results can be of extreme use to forest managers and firefighters when deciding which the best fire preventing measures are and where to allocate the resources.

[Do volcanic eruptions and wide-spread fires affect our climate?].

PubMed

Primault, B

1992-03-31

During the first half of 1991, the press, radio and TV have often reported about large fires (Kuwait, forest fires in Portugal) or volcanic eruptions (Mount Unzen, Pinatubo). Starting with the facts, the author investigates first the kind of particles constituting such smoke clouds and in particular their size. He places the main cloud in the atmosphere and asks; the cloud remains near the soil, whether it reaches the upper layers of the troposphere or it breaks out into the stratosphere? The transport of the cloud depends on particle-size and of the winds blowing in the reached layer. All these clouds have an impact on the weather. The author analyses finally the credible influence of such clouds on weather elements: radiation and temperature as well as the extent of these effects. He corroborates his analysis by visual observations or measurements.

Verification of National Weather Service spot forecasts using surface observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammers, Matthew Robert

Software has been developed to evaluate National Weather Service spot forecasts issued to support prescribed burns and early-stage wildfires. Fire management officials request spot forecasts from National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices to provide detailed guidance as to atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of planned prescribed burns as well as wildfires that do not have incident meteorologists on site. This open source software with online display capabilities is used to examine an extensive set of spot forecasts of maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, and maximum wind speed from April 2009 through November 2013 nationwide. The forecast values are compared to the closest available surface observations at stations installed primarily for fire weather and aviation applications. The accuracy of the spot forecasts is compared to those available from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Spot forecasts for selected prescribed burns and wildfires are used to illustrate issues associated with the verification procedures. Cumulative statistics for National Weather Service County Warning Areas and for the nation are presented. Basic error and accuracy metrics for all available spot forecasts and the entire nation indicate that the skill of the spot forecasts is higher than that available from the NDFD, with the greatest improvement for maximum temperature and the least improvement for maximum wind speed.

Study of the Weathering Process of Gasoline by eNose

PubMed Central

Aliaño-González, María José; Ayuso, Jesús; Palma, Miguel; Barroso, Carmelo G.

2018-01-01

In a fire investigation the rapid detection of the presence of ignitable liquids like gasoline is of great importance as it allows appropriate treatment of the remains, the identification of prevention methods and detects the possible presence of an arsonist. In some cases, analysts cannot access the fire scene in the first few hours due to the dangers involved in the situation and, as a consequence, phenomena such as weathering start. Ignitable liquid weathering is an evaporation process that results in an increase in the abundance of non-volatile compounds relative to volatile compounds, and this process changes the chemical composition. In the present work, the weathering of samples of gasoline at different times (from 0 h to a month) has been studied using an electronic nose (eNose). The influence of the volume used (40 µL and 80 µL) and the type of support (cork, wood, paper and cotton sheet) has been studied. Chemometric tools have been used with the aim of ascertaining the weathering time for which the developed method is capable of detecting the presence of gasoline. The eNose was able to discriminate samples of weathered gasoline. The support used for the samples did not seem to have an influence on the detection and the system. PMID:29304020

Fire - Southern Oscillation relations in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swetnam, T.W.; Betancourt, J.L.

1990-01-01

Fire scar and tree growth chronologies (1700 to 1905) and fire statistics (since 1905) from Arizona and New Mexico show that small areas burn after wet springs associated with the low phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO), whereas large areas burn after dry springs associated with the high phase of the SO. Through its synergistic influence on spring weather and fuel conditions, climatic variability in the tropical Pacific significantly influences vegetation dynamics in the southwestern United States. Synchrony of fire-free and severe fire years across diverse southwestern forests implies that climate forces fire regimes on a subcontinental scale; it also underscores the importance of exogenous factors in ecosystem dynamics.

Fire and forest history at Mount Rushmore.

PubMed

Brown, Peter M; Wienk, Cody L; Symstad, Amy J

2008-12-01

Mount Rushmore National Memorial in the Black Hills of South Dakota is known worldwide for its massive sculpture of four of the United States' most respected presidents. The Memorial landscape also is covered by extensive ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest that has not burned in over a century. We compiled dendroecological and forest structural data from 29 plots across the 517-ha Memorial and used fire behavior modeling to reconstruct the historical fire regime and forest structure and compare them to current conditions. The historical fire regime is best characterized as one of low-severity surface fires with occasional (> 100 years) patches (< 100 ha) of passive crown fire. We estimate that only approximately 3.3% of the landscape burned as crown fire during 22 landscape fire years (recorded at > or = 25% of plots) between 1529 and 1893. The last landscape fire was in 1893. Mean fire intervals before 1893 varied depending on spatial scale, from 34 years based on scar-to-scar intervals on individual trees to 16 years between landscape fire years. Modal fire intervals were 11-15 years and did not vary with scale. Fire rotation (the time to burn an area the size of the study area) was estimated to be 30 years for surface fire and 800+ years for crown fire. The current forest is denser and contains more small trees, fewer large trees, lower canopy base heights, and greater canopy bulk density than a reconstructed historical (1870) forest. Fire behavior modeling using the NEXUS program suggests that surface fires would have dominated fire behavior in the 1870 forest during both moderate and severe weather conditions, while crown fire would dominate in the current forest especially under severe weather. Changes in the fire regime and forest structure at Mount Rushmore parallel those seen in ponderosa pine forests from the southwestern United States. Shifts from historical to current forest structure and the increased likelihood of crown fire justify the need for forest restoration before a catastrophic wildfire occurs and adversely impacts the ecological and aesthetic setting of the Mount Rushmore sculpture.

Temporal scaling behavior of forest and urban fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Song, W.; Zheng, H.; Telesca, L.

2009-04-01

It has been found that many natural systems are characterized by scaling behavior. In such systems natural factors dominate the event dynamics. Forest fires in different countries have been found to exhibit frequency-size power law over many orders of magnitude and with similar value of parameters. But in countries with high population density such as China and Japan, more than 95% of the forest fire disasters are caused by human activities. Furthermore, with the development of society, the wildland-urban interface (WUI) area is becoming more and more populated, and the forest fire is much connected with urban fire. Therefore exploring the scaling behavior of fires dominated by human-related factors is very challenging. The present paper explores the temporal scaling behavior of forest fires and urban fires in Japan with mathematical methods. Two factors, Allan factor (AF) and Fano factor (FF) are used to investigate time-scaling of fire systems. It is found that the FF for both forest fires and urban fires increases linearly in log-log scales, and this indicates that it behaves as a power-law for all the investigated timescales. From the AF plot a 7 days cycle is found, which indicates a weekly cycle. This may be caused by human activities which has a weekly periodicity because on weekends people usually have more outdoor activities, which may cause more hidden trouble of fire disasters. Our findings point out that although the human factors are the main cause, both the forest fires and urban fires exhibit time-scaling behavior. At the same time, the scaling exponents for urban fires are larger than forest fires, signifying a more intense clustering. The reason may be that fires are affected not only by weather condition, but also by human activities, which play a more important role for urban fires than forest fires and have a power law distribution and scaling behavior. Then some work is done to the relative humidity. Similar distribution law characterizes the relative humidity. The AF plot and FF plot of relative humidity validate the existence of a strong link between weather and fires, and it is very likely that the daily humidity cycle determines the daily fire periodicity.

Spatial and temporal dimensions of fire activity in the fire-prone eastern Canadian taiga.

PubMed

Erni, Sandy; Arseneault, Dominique; Parisien, Marc-André; Bégin, Yves

2017-03-01

The forest age mosaic is a fundamental attribute of the North American boreal forest. Given that fires are generally lethal to trees, the time since last fire largely determines the composition and structure of forest stands and landscapes. Although the spatiotemporal dynamics of such mosaics has long been assumed to be random under the overwhelming influence of severe fire weather, no long-term reconstruction of mosaic dynamics has been performed from direct field evidence. In this study, we use fire length as a proxy for fire extent across the fire-prone eastern Canadian taiga and systematically reconstruct the spatiotemporal variability of fire extent and fire intervals, as well as the resulting forest age along a 340-km transect for the 1840-2013 time period. Our results indicate an extremely active fire regime over the last two centuries, with an overall burn rate of 2.1% of the land area yr -1 , mainly triggered by seasonal anomalies of high temperature and severe drought. However, the rejuvenation of the age mosaic was strongly patterned in space and time due to the intrinsically lower burn rates in wetland-dominated areas and, more importantly, to the much-reduced likelihood of burning of stands up to 50 years postfire. An extremely high burn rate of ~5% yr -1 would have characterized our study region during the last century in the absence of such fuel age effect. Although recent burn rates and fire sizes are within their range of variability of the last 175 years, a particularly severe weather event allowed a 2013 fire to spread across a large fire refuge, thus shifting the abundance of mature and old forest to a historic low. These results provide reference conditions to evaluate the significance and predict the spatiotemporal dynamics and impacts of the currently strengthening fire activity in the North American boreal forest. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of antecedent fire area on burned area in southern California coastal ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.; Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2012-01-01

Frequent wildfire disasters in southern California highlight the need for risk reduction strategies for the region, of which fuel reduction via prescribed burning is one option. However, there is no consensus about the effectiveness of prescribed fire in reducing the area of wildfire. Here, we use 29 years of historical fire mapping to quantify the relationship between annual wildfire area and antecedent fire area in predominantly shrub and grassland fuels in seven southern California counties, controlling for annual variation in weather patterns. This method has been used elsewhere to measure leverage: the reduction in wildfire area resulting from one unit of prescribed fire treatment. We found little evidence for a leverage effect (leverage = zero). Specifically our results showed no evidence that wildfire area was negatively influenced by previous fires, and only weak relationships with weather variables rainfall and Santa Ana wind occurrences, which were variables included to control for inter-annual variation. We conclude that this is because only 2% of the vegetation burns each year and so wildfires rarely encounter burned patches and chaparral shrublands can carry a fire within 1 or 2 years after previous fire. Prescribed burning is unlikely to have much influence on fire regimes in this area, though targeted treatment at the urban interface may be effective at providing defensible space for protecting assets. These results fit an emerging global model of fire leverage which position California at the bottom end of a continuum, with tropical savannas at the top (leverage = 1: direct replacement of wildfire by prescribed fire) and Australian eucalypt forests in the middle (leverage ∼ 0.25).

The impact of antecedent fire area on burned area in southern California coastal ecosystems.

PubMed

Price, Owen F; Bradstock, Ross A; Keeley, Jon E; Syphard, Alexandra D

2012-12-30

Frequent wildfire disasters in southern California highlight the need for risk reduction strategies for the region, of which fuel reduction via prescribed burning is one option. However, there is no consensus about the effectiveness of prescribed fire in reducing the area of wildfire. Here, we use 29 years of historical fire mapping to quantify the relationship between annual wildfire area and antecedent fire area in predominantly shrub and grassland fuels in seven southern California counties, controlling for annual variation in weather patterns. This method has been used elsewhere to measure leverage: the reduction in wildfire area resulting from one unit of prescribed fire treatment. We found little evidence for a leverage effect (leverage = zero). Specifically our results showed no evidence that wildfire area was negatively influenced by previous fires, and only weak relationships with weather variables rainfall and Santa Ana wind occurrences, which were variables included to control for inter-annual variation. We conclude that this is because only 2% of the vegetation burns each year and so wildfires rarely encounter burned patches and chaparral shrublands can carry a fire within 1 or 2 years after previous fire. Prescribed burning is unlikely to have much influence on fire regimes in this area, though targeted treatment at the urban interface may be effective at providing defensible space for protecting assets. These results fit an emerging global model of fire leverage which position California at the bottom end of a continuum, with tropical savannas at the top (leverage = 1: direct replacement of wildfire by prescribed fire) and Australian eucalypt forests in the middle (leverage ~ 0.25). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Critical mass flux for flaming ignition of wood as a function of external radiant heat flux and moisture content

Treesearch

S. McAllister; M. Finney; J. Cohen

2011-01-01

Extreme weather often contributes to crown fires, where the fire spreads from one tree crown to the next as a series of piloted ignitions. An important aspect in predicting crown fires is understanding the ignition of fuel particles. The ignition criterion considered in this work is the critical mass flux criterion - that a sufficient amount of pyrolysis gases must be...

Critical mass flux for flaming ignition of dead, dry wood as a function of exernal radiant heat flux

Treesearch

Sara McAllister; Mark Finney; Jack Cohen

2010-01-01

Extreme weather often contributes to crown fires, where the fire spreads from one tree crown to the next as a series of piloted ignitions. An important aspect in predicting crown fires is understanding the ignition of fuel particles. The ignition criterion considered in this work is the critical mass flux criterion - that a sufficient amount of pyrolysis gases must be...

Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Preisler, H.K.; Burgan, R.E.; Eidenshink, J.C.; Klaver, Jacqueline M.; Klaver, R.W.

2009-01-01

The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i) number of ignitions; (ii) number of fires above a given size; (iii) conditional probabilities of fires greater than a specified size, given ignition. As an illustration, we used the methods to study the skill of the Fire Potential Index an index that incorporates satellite and surface observations to map fire potential at a national scale in forecasting distributions of large fires. ?? 2009 IAWF.

How Can Conventional Drinking Water Treatment Facilities Build Resilience to Climate and Weather Induced Water Supply Variability?

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract: Water supplies are vulnerable to a host of climate- and weather-related stressors such as droughts, intense storms/flooding, snowpack depletion, sea level changes, and consequences from fires, landslides, and excessive heat or cold. Surface water resources (lakes, reser...

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Philip J.; Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.; Keifer, MaryBeth; Knapp, Eric E.; Flint, Alan; Flint, Lorraine

2013-01-01

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after accounting for fire defences and injuries, and appeared to influence the effects of crown and stem injuries. Climate and fire interactions did not vary substantially across geographical regions, major genera and tree sizes. Our findings support recent physiological evidence showing that both drought and heating from fire can impair xylem conductivity. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire).

Fire treatment effects on vegetation structure, fuels, and potential fire severity in western U.S. forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephens, S.L.; Moghaddas, J.J.; Edminster, C.; Fiedler, C.E.; Haase, S.; Harrington, M.; Keeley, J.E.; Knapp, E.E.; Mciver, J.D.; Metlen, K.; Skinner, C.N.; Youngblood, A.

2009-01-01

Abstract. Forest structure and species composition in many western U.S. coniferous forests have been altered through fire exclusion, past and ongoing harvesting practices, and livestock grazing over the 20th century. The effects of these activities have been most pronounced in seasonally dry, low and mid-elevation coniferous forests that once experienced frequent, low to moderate intensity, fire regimes. In this paper, we report the effects of Fire and Fire Surrogate (FFS) forest stand treatments on fuel load profiles, potential fire behavior, and fire severity under three weather scenarios from six western U.S. FFS sites. This replicated, multisite experiment provides a framework for drawing broad generalizations about the effectiveness of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments on surface fuel loads, forest structure, and potential fire severity. Mechanical treatments without fire resulted in combined 1-, 10-, and 100-hour surface fuel loads that were significantly greater than controls at three of five FFS sites. Canopy cover was significantly lower than controls at three of five FFS sites with mechanical-only treatments and at all five FFS sites with the mechanical plus burning treatment; fire-only treatments reduced canopy cover at only one site. For the combined treatment of mechanical plus fire, all five FFS sites with this treatment had a substantially lower likelihood of passive crown fire as indicated by the very high torching indices. FFS sites that experienced significant increases in 1-, 10-, and 100-hour combined surface fuel loads utilized harvest systems that left all activity fuels within experimental units. When mechanical treatments were followed by prescribed burning or pile burning, they were the most effective treatment for reducing crown fire potential and predicted tree mortality because of low surface fuel loads and increased vertical and horizontal canopy separation. Results indicate that mechanical plus fire, fire-only, and mechanical-only treatments using whole-tree harvest systems were all effective at reducing potential fire severity under severe fire weather conditions. Retaining the largest trees within stands also increased fire resistance. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Carbon and nitrogen cycling in southwestern ponderosa fine forests

Treesearch

Stephen C. Hart; Paul C. Selmants; Sarah I. Boyle; Steven T. Overby

2007-01-01

Ponderosa pine forests of the southwestern United States were historically characterized by relatively open, parklike stands with a bunchgrass-dominated understory. This forest structure was maintained by frequent, low-intensity surface fires. Heavy livestock grazing, fire suppression, and favorable weather conditions following Euro-American settlement in the late 19th...

Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: the Australian case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Grant J.; Prior, Lynda D.; Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Murphy, Brett P.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2016-03-01

Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-derived active fire detections to determine day and night time fire activity, fire season start and end dates, and inter-annual variability, across 61 objectively defined climate regions in three climate zones (monsoon tropics, arid and temperate). We show that geographic patterns of landscape burning (onset and duration) are related to fire weather, resulting in a latitudinal gradient from the monsoon tropics in winter, through the arid zone in all seasons except winter, and then to the temperate zone in summer and autumn. Peak fire activity precedes maximum lightning activity by several months in all regions, signalling the importance of human ignitions in shaping fire seasons. We determined median daily McArthur forest fire danger index (FFDI50) for days and nights when fires were detected: FFDI50 varied substantially between climate zones, reflecting effects of fire management in the temperate zone, fuel limitation in the arid zone and abundance of flammable grasses in the monsoon tropical zone. We found correlations between the proportion of days when FFDI exceeds FFDI50 and the Southern Oscillation index across the arid zone during spring and summer, and Indian Ocean dipole mode index across south-eastern Australia during summer. Our study demonstrates that Australia has a long fire weather season with high inter-annual variability relative to all other continents, making it difficult to detect long term trends. It also provides a way of establishing robust baselines to track changes to fire seasons, and supports a previous conceptual model highlighting multi-temporal scale effects of climate in shaping continental-scale pyrogeography.

Complex systems approach to fire dynamics and climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pueyo, S.

2012-04-01

I present some recent advances in complex systems theory as a contribution to understanding fire regimes and forecasting their response to a changing climate, qualitatively and quantitatively. In many regions of the world, fire sizes have been found to follow, approximately, a power-law frequency distribution. As noted by several authors, this distribution also arises in the "forest fire" model used by physicists to study mechanisms that give rise to scale invariance (the power law is a scale-invariant distribution). However, this model does not give and does not pretend to give a realistic description of fire dynamics. For example, it gives no role to weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) developed a variant of the "forest fire" model that is also simple but attempts to be more realistic. It also results into a power law, but the parameters of this distribution change through time as a function of weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) observed similar patterns of response to weather in data from boreal forest fires, and used the fitted response functions to forecast fire size distributions in a possible climate change scenario, including the upper extreme of the distribution. For some parameter values, the model in Pueyo (2007) displays a qualitatively different behavior, consisting of simple percolation. In this case, fire is virtually absent, but megafires sweep through the ecosystem a soon as environmental forcings exceed a critical threshold. Evidence gathered by Pueyo et al. (2010) suggests that this is realistic for tropical rainforests (specifically, well-conserved upland rainforests). Some climate models suggest that major tropical rainforest regions are going to become hotter and drier if climate change goes ahead unchecked, which could cause such abrupt shifts. Not all fire regimes are well described by this model. Using data from a tropical savanna region, Pueyo et al. (2010) found that the dynamics in this area do not match its assumptions, even though fire sizes are also well fitted by a power law. A possible interpretation is that the spatial structure of fire in savannas is strongly constrained by the spatial structure of their environment. Instead of resulting from ecosystem self-organization as in the model, in this case the scale invariance in fire events would be just a reflection of scale invariance in the environment in which the ecosystem lives. These results suggest at least three major types of fire dynamics: endogenous scaling, percolating, and exogenous scaling, in addition to intermediate options. The world's biomes can be classified based on the type of dynamics that is most likely to apply in each of them, and forecasts can be carried out with the tools developed for each of these types.

Application of the Haines Index in the fire warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalin, Lovro; Marija, Mokoric; Tomislav, Kozaric

2016-04-01

Croatia, as all Mediterranean countries, is strongly affected by large wildfires, particularly in the coastal region. In the last two decades the number and intensity of fires has been significantly increased, which is unanimously associated with climate change, e.g. global warming. More extreme fires are observed, and the fire-fighting season has been expanded to June and September. The meteorological support for fire protection and planning is therefore even more important. At the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia a comprehensive monitoring and warning system has been established. It includes standard components, such as short term forecast of Fire Weather Index (FWI), but long range forecast as well. However, due to more frequent hot and dry seasons, FWI index often does not provide additional information of extremely high fire danger, since it regularly takes the highest values for long periods. Therefore the additional tools have been investigated. One of widely used meteorological products is the Haines index (HI). It provides information of potential fire growth, taking into account only the vertical instability of the atmosphere, and not the state of the fuel. Several analyses and studies carried out at the Service confirmed the correlation of high HI values with large and extreme fires. The Haines index forecast has been used at the Service for several years, employing European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) global prediction model, as well as the limited-area Aladin model. The verification results show that these forecast are reliable, when compared to radiosonde measurements. All these results provided the introduction of the additional fire warnings, that are issued by the Service's Forecast Department.

Plantations as a response to the Creighton Ridge Fire: a landscape experiment in Cazadero, California

Treesearch

Frederick D. Euphrat; Charles Williams; Judy Rosales

2017-01-01

During a period of unusually hot, dry weather in 1972, the Creighton Ridge fire burned 4,452 ha (11,000 ac) of forest and intermixed grasslands, as well as many residences on the recently-subdivided 16 ha (40 ac) ranch holdings in the Cazadero – Fort Ross area, north of San Francisco. In response to the fire, local work crews planted and thinned trees from...

Climate adaption and post-fire restoration of a foundational perennial in cold desert: Insights from intraspecific variation in response to weather

Treesearch

Martha M. Brabec; Matthew J. Germino; Bryce A. Richardson

2017-01-01

The loss of foundational but fire-intolerant perennials such as sagebrush due to increases in fire size and frequency in semi-arid regions has motivated efforts to restore them, often with mixed or even no success. Seeds of sagebrush Artemisia tridentata and related species must be moved considerable distances from seed source to planting sites, but such transfers have...

Production and efficiency of large wildland fire suppression effort: A stochastic frontier analysis.

PubMed

Katuwal, Hari; Calkin, David E; Hand, Michael S

2016-01-15

This study examines the production and efficiency of wildland fire suppression effort. We estimate the effectiveness of suppression resource inputs to produce controlled fire lines that contain large wildland fires using stochastic frontier analysis. Determinants of inefficiency are identified and the effects of these determinants on the daily production of controlled fire line are examined. Results indicate that the use of bulldozers and fire engines increase the production of controlled fire line, while firefighter crews do not tend to contribute to controlled fire line production. Production of controlled fire line is more efficient if it occurs along natural or built breaks, such as rivers and roads, and within areas previously burned by wildfires. However, results also indicate that productivity and efficiency of the controlled fire line are sensitive to weather, landscape and fire characteristics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weather records at lookout stations in northern Idaho

Treesearch

J. A. Larsen

1922-01-01

Records which furnish information regarding weather conditions on mountains have alwavs been of interest to the public and to scientists. To the United States Forest Service these are of great use in constructing the ground work for better forest fire protection. Students of climate, botany, ecology, and animal life are always eager for such data.

Climate change and wildland firefighter health and safety.

PubMed

Withen, Patrick

2015-02-01

The author examines how climate change is impacting wildland firefighters. Climate change has made wildland fires more frequent and more intense. The increase in frequency and intensity of fires has pushed the number of fatalities and injuries higher in recent decades. The most common hazards on fires follow the trend of fire in general in that these hazards become more frequent and intense. Burnovers, heat exhaustion, tree hazards, and many other common fire hazards are more likely. The fire suppression agencies are making every effort to improve health and safety on fires by improving communication, weather forecasting, mapping, fire shelters, decision making and more. Despite these efforts, wildfires are becoming ever more hazardous because of climate change and the increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires. © 2015 SAGE Publications.

Fuel temperature counter

Treesearch

John R. Murray; Charles W. Philpot

1963-01-01

Fuel temperature is and has always been difficult to measure. To understand better the problem of fire and fire weather behavior, it is important to measure this variable. We have developed for field use a new fuel temperature counter which can be used to obtain such measurements quickly and easily. This electronic recording instrument is easy to construct and operate...

Permafrost as an additional driving factor for the extreme fire event in the boreal Baikal region in 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, M.; Thonicke, K.; Beer, C.; Cramer, W.; Bartalev, S.; Schmullius, C.

2012-04-01

Wildfires are a natural and important element in the functioning of boreal forests. However, in some years, fires with extreme spread and severity occur. Such severe fires degrade the forest, affect human values, emit huge amount of carbon and aerosols and alter the land surface albedo. Usually, wind, slope, and dry conditions have been recognized as factors determining fire spread. In the Baikal region, 127,000 km2 burned in 2003, while the annual average burned area is approx. 8100 km2. In average years, 16% of the burned area occurred in the continuous permafrost zone but in 2003, 33% of these burned areas coincide with the existence of permanently frozen grounds. Permafrost and the associated upper active layer, which thaws during summer and refreezes during winter, is an important supply for soil moisture in boreal ecosystems. This leads to the question if permafrost hydrology is a potential additional driving factor for extreme fire events in boreal forests. Using temperature and precipitation data, we calculated the Nesterov index as indicator for fire weather conditions. Further, we used satellite observations of burned area and surface moisture, a digital elevation model, a land cover and a permafrost map to evaluate drivers for the temporal dynamic and spatial variability of surface moisture conditions and burned area in spring 2003. On the basis of time series decomposition, we separated the effect of drivers for fire activity on different time scales. We next computed cross-correlations to identify potential time lags between weather conditions, surface moisture and fire activity. Finally, we assessed the predictive capability of different combinations of driving variables for surface moisture conditions and burned area using multivariate spatial-temporal regression models. The results from this study demonstrate that permafrost in larch-dominated ecosystems regulates the inter-annual variability of surface moisture and thus increases the inter-annual variability of burned area. The drought conditions in spring 2003 were accelerated by the presence of permafrost because less water was stored in the upper active layer from the dry previous summer 2002 and the permafrost table prevents vegetative water uptake from deeper layers. In contrast, weather conditions (precipitation anomaly, Nesterov index) are weaker predictors for the 2003 fire event. Our analysis advances the understanding of complex interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil on how feedback mechanisms can lead to extreme fire events. These findings emphasize the importance of a mechanistic coupling of soil thermodynamics, hydrology, and fire activity in earth system models for projecting climate change impacts over the next century.

Prescribed Burn at Pine Bluff Arsenal

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-03-01

length (ft) backfire flame length (ft) hf rate of spread (ch/hr) bf rate of spread (ch/hr) Minimum behavior headfire flame length (ft) backfire... flame length (ft) hf rate of spread (ch/hr) bf rate of spread (ch/hr) 8. FUEL AND WEATHER PRESCRIPTION Source of weather: National Weather Service...and left the site. No spots occurred. Backfire flame lengths were 0.2-3 feet through pine needles and grass. Flanking fire flame lengths were 2-4

Ecology: human role in Russian wild fires.

PubMed

Mollicone, Danilo; Eva, Hugh D; Achard, Frédéric

2006-03-23

Anomalies in temperature and precipitation in northern Russia over the past few years have been viewed as manifestations of anthropogenic climate change, prompting suggestions that this may also account for exceptional forest fires in the region. Here we examine the number of forest-fire events across the boreal Russian Federation for the period 2002 to 2005 in 'intact' forests, where human influence is limited, and in 'non-intact' forests, which have been shaped by human activity. Our results show that there were more fires in years during which the weather was anomalous, but that more than 87% of fires in boreal Russia were started by people.

A new website with real-time dissemination of information on fire activity and meteorological fire danger in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DaCamara, Carlos; Trigo, Ricardo; Nunes, Sílvia; Pinto, Miguel; Oliveira, Tiago; Almeida, Rui

2017-04-01

In Portugal, like in Mediterranean Europe, fire activity is a natural phenomenon linking climate, humans and vegetation and is therefore conditioned by natural and anthropogenic factors. Natural factors include topography, vegetation cover and prevailing weather conditions whereas anthropogenic factors encompass land management practices and fire prevention policies. Land management practices, in particular the inadequate use of fire, is a crucial anthropogenic factor that accounts for about 90% of fire ignitions. Fire prevention policies require adequate and timely information about wildfire potential assessment, which is usually based on fire danger rating systems that provide indices to be used on an operational and tactical basis in decision support systems. We present a new website designed to provide the user community with relevant real-time information on fire activity and meteorological fire danger that will allow adopting the adequate measures to mitigate fire damage. The fire danger product consists of forecasts of fire danger over Portugal based on a statistical procedure that combines information about fire history derived from the Fire Radiative Power product disseminated by the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF) with daily meteorological forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The aim of the website is fourfold; 1) to concentrate all information available (databases and maps) relevant to fire management in a unique platform so that access by end users becomes easier, faster and friendlier; 2) to supervise the access of users to the different products available; 3) to control and assist the access to the platform and obtain feedbacks from users for further improvements; 4) to outreach the operational community and foster the use of better information that increase efficiency in risk management. The website is sponsored by The Navigator Company, a leading force in the global pulp and paper market. Since the operational start of the website, the number of registered users has been steadily increasing up to a total of 300 users from a wide community that encompasses forest managers, firemen and civil protection officers, personnel from municipalities, academic researchers and private owners.

Critical mass flux for flaming ignition of dead, dry wood as a function of external radiant heat flux and oxidizer flow velocity

Treesearch

Sara McAllister; Mark Finney; Jack Cohen

2010-01-01

Extreme weather often contributes to crown fires, where the fire spreads from one tree crown to the next as a series of piloted ignitions. An important aspect in predicting crown fires is understanding the ignition of fuel particles. The ignition criterion considered in this work is the critical mass flux criterion – that a sufficient amount of pyrolysis gases must be...

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States.

PubMed

van Mantgem, Phillip J; Nesmith, Jonathan C B; Keifer, MaryBeth; Knapp, Eric E; Flint, Alan; Flint, Lorriane

2013-09-01

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after accounting for fire defences and injuries, and appeared to influence the effects of crown and stem injuries. Climate and fire interactions did not vary substantially across geographical regions, major genera and tree sizes. Our findings support recent physiological evidence showing that both drought and heating from fire can impair xylem conductivity. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire). Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

A high-resolution modelling approach on spatial wildfire distribution in the Tyrolean Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malowerschnig, Bodo; Sass, Oliver

2013-04-01

Global warming will cause increasing danger of wildfires in Austria, which can have long-lasting consequences on woodland ecosystems. The protective effect of forest can be severely diminished, leading to natural hazards like avalanches and rockfall. However, data on wildfire frequency and distribution have been sparse and incomplete for Austria. Long-lasting postfire degradation under adverse preconditions (steep slopes, limestone) was a common phenomenon in parts of the Tyrolean Alps several decades ago and should become relevant again under a changing fire frequency. The FIRIA project compiles historical wildfire data, information on fuel loads, fire weather indices (FWI) and vegetation recovery patterns. The governing climatic, topographic and socio-economic factors of forest fire distribution were assessed to trigger a distribution model of currently fire-prone areas in Tyrol. By collecting data from different sources like old newspapers archives and fire-fighter databases, we were able to build up a fire database of wildfire occurrences containing more than 1400 forest fires since the 15th century in Tyrol. For the period from 1993 to 2011, the database is widely complete and covers 482 fires. Using a non-parametrical statistical method it was possible to select the best suited fire weather index (FWI) for the prediction. The testing of 19 FWI's shows that it is necessary to use two discriminative indices to differentiate between summer and winter season. Together with compiled topographic, socio-economic, infrastructure and forest maps, the dataset was the base for a multifactorial analysis, performed by comparing the maximum entropy approach (Maxent) with an ensemble classifier (Random Forests). Both approaches have their background in the spatial habitat distribution and are easy to adapt to the requirements of a wildfire ignition model. The aim of this modelling approach was to determine areas which are particularly prone to wildfire. Due to the pronounced relief curvature we based our model on 100 x 100 m cells to identify individual slopes and their topography. The first provisional result is a map of fire probability under current climate conditions (fire hot-spots). Our modelling approach indicates the fire weather index as the main driver, which is followed closely by socioeconomic (population density) and infrastructure factors (roads density, aerial railways, building density). The leverage of the forest community or its management is rather low; the same applies to topographic influences like aspect or sea level. The derived fire hot-spots are either placed close to the valley ground or around touristic infrastructure, with an overall preference for inner alpine areas and south-facing slopes. In the next step, the impact of climate change on the distribution and frequency of fires will be assessed by calculating a climate change model adapted to the 1x1km INCA dataset and based on different regional climate change models. Finally, a selection of fire-hot-spots from the previous modelling steps will be used for enhanced 3D-modelling approaches of natural hazards after wildfire-driven deforestation.

10 CFR 430.32 - Energy and water conservation standards and their effective dates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... (excluding classes noted below) 78 (B) Mobile Home furnaces 75 (C) Small furnaces (other than those designed solely for installation in mobile homes) having an input rate of less than 45,000 Btu/hr (1) Weatherized... including mobile home furnaces) 80 (B) Mobile Home gas furnaces 80 (C) Non-weatherized oil-fired furnaces...

10 CFR 430.32 - Energy and water conservation standards and their compliance dates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... (excluding classes noted below) 78 (B) Mobile Home furnaces 75 (C) Small furnaces (other than those designed solely for installation in mobile homes) having an input rate of less than 45,000 Btu/hr (1) Weatherized... including mobile home furnaces) 80 (B) Mobile Home gas furnaces 80 (C) Non-weatherized oil-fired furnaces...

10 CFR 430.32 - Energy and water conservation standards and their effective dates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... (excluding classes noted below) 78 (B) Mobile Home furnaces 75 (C) Small furnaces (other than those designed solely for installation in mobile homes) having an input rate of less than 45,000 Btu/hr (1) Weatherized... including mobile home furnaces) 80 (B) Mobile Home gas furnaces 80 (C) Non-weatherized oil-fired furnaces...

Fire severity and tree regeneration following bark beetle outbreaks: the role of outbreak stage and burning conditions.

PubMed

Harvey, Brian J; Donato, Daniel C; Romme, William H; Turner, Monica G

The degree to which recent bark beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks may influence fire severity and postfire tree regeneration is of heightened interest to resource managers throughout western North America, but empirical data on actual fire effects are lacking. Outcomes may depend on burning conditions (i.e., weather during fire), outbreak severity, or intervals between outbreaks and subsequent fire. We studied recent fires that burned through green-attack/red-stage (outbreaks <3 years before fire) and gray-stage (outbreaks 3–15 years before fire) subalpine forests dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in Greater Yellowstone, Wyoming, USA, to determine if fire severity was linked to prefire beetle outbreak severity and whether these two disturbances produced compound ecological effects on postfire tree regeneration. With field data from 143 postfire plots that burned under different conditions, we assessed canopy and surface fire severity, and postfire tree seedling density against prefire outbreak severity. In the green-attack/red stage, several canopy fire-severity measures increased with prefire outbreak severity under moderate burning conditions. Under extreme conditions, few fire-severity measures were related to prefire outbreak severity, and effect sizes were of marginal biological significance. The percentage of tree stems and basal area killed by fire increased with more green-attack vs. red-stage trees (i.e., the earliest stages of outbreak). In the gray stage, by contrast, most fire-severity measures declined with increasing outbreak severity under moderate conditions, and fire severity was unrelated to outbreak severity under extreme burning conditions. Postfire lodgepole pine seedling regeneration was unrelated to prefire outbreak severity in either post-outbreak stage, but increased with prefire serotiny. Results suggest bark beetle outbreaks can affect fire severity in subalpine forests under moderate burning conditions, but have little effect on fire severity under extreme burning conditions when most large wildfires occur in this system. Thus, beetle outbreak severity was moderately linked to fire severity, but the strength and direction of the linkage depended on both endogenous (outbreak stage) and exogenous (fire weather) factors. Closely timed beetle outbreak and fire did not impart compound effects on tree regeneration, suggesting the presence of a canopy seedbank may enhance resilience to their combined effects.

Vegetation recovery after fire in the Klamath-Siskiyou region, southern Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hibbs, David; Jacobs, Ruth

2011-01-01

In July 2002, lightning strikes started five forest fires that merged into one massive wildfire in the Klamath-Siskiyou Ecoregion of southern Oregon. Aided by drought, severe weather conditions, dry fuels, and steep topography, the fire grew to more than 200,000 hectares of mostly public forest land. Known as the Biscuit Fire, it was Oregon's largest forest fire in more than 130 years and one of the largest wildfires on record in the United States. Discussions centered around why such a massive fire was happening, how large would it become, who was keeping communities and homes safe, and what would be the final economic and ecological outcome. Weeks later when the fire was out, conversations turned to other questions, including what, if anything, should happen for forest recovery.

Exploring Model Error through Post-processing and an Ensemble Kalman Filter on Fire Weather Days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, Michael J.

The proliferation of coupling atmospheric ensemble data to models in other related fields requires a priori knowledge of atmospheric ensemble biases specific to the desired application. In that spirit, this dissertation focuses on elucidating atmospheric ensemble model bias and error through a variety of different methods specific to fire weather days (FWDs) over the Northeast United States (NEUS). Other than a handful of studies that use models to predict fire indices for single fire seasons (Molders 2008, Simpson et al. 2014), an extensive exploration of model performance specific to FWDs has not been attempted. Two unique definitions for FWDs are proposed; one that uses pre-existing fire indices (FWD1) and another from a new statistical fire weather index (FWD2) relating fire occurrence and near-surface meteorological observations. Ensemble model verification reveals FWDs to have warmer (> 1 K), moister (~ 0.4 g kg-1) and less windy (~ 1 m s-1) biases than the climatological average for both FWD1 and FWD2. These biases are not restricted to the near surface but exist through the entirety of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Furthermore, post-processing methods are more effective when previous FWDs are incorporated into the statistical training, suggesting that model bias could be related to the synoptic flow pattern. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of data assimilation during a period of extensive FWDs in April 2012. Model biases develop rapidly on FWDs, consistent with the FWD1 and FWD2 verification. However, the EnKF is effective at removing most biases for temperature, wind speed and specific humidity. Potential sources of error in the parameterized physics of the PBL are explored by rerunning the EnKF with simultaneous state and parameter estimation (SSPE) for two relevant parameters within the ACM2 PBL scheme. SSPE helps to reduce the cool temperature bias near the surface on FWDs, with the variability in parameter estimates exhibiting some relationship to model bias for temperature. This suggests the potential for structural model error within the ACM2 PBL scheme and could lead toward the future development of improved PBL parameterizations.

Deadly Cold: Health Hazards Due to Cold Weather. An Information Paper by the Subcommittee on Health and Long-Term Care of the Select Committee on Aging. House of Representatives, Ninety-Eighth Congress, Second Session (February 1984).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. House Select Committee on Aging.

This paper, on the health hazards of cold weather for elderly persons, presents information from various sources on the death rates in winter throughout the United States. After reviewing the scope of the problem, specific health hazards associated with cold weather are discussed, i.e., hypothermia, fires, carbon monoxide poisoning, and influenza…

Climatic variability of near-surface turbulent kinetic energy over the United States: implications for fire-weather predications

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bain

2013-01-01

Recent research suggests that high levels of ambient near-surface atmospheric turbulence are often associated with rapid and sometimes erratic wildland fire spread that may eventually lead to large burn areas. Previous research has also examined the feasibility of using near-surface atmospheric turbulent kinetic energy (TKEs) alone or in...

Power laws reveal phase transitions in landscape controls of fire regimes

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; Maureen C. Kennedy

2012-01-01

Understanding the environmental controls on historical wildfires, and how they changed across spatial scales, is difficult because there are no surviving explicit records of either weather or vegetation (fuels). Here we show how power laws associated with fire-event time series arise in limited domains of parameters that represent critical transitions in the controls...

46 CFR 34.10-10 - Fire station hydrants, hose and nozzles-T/ALL.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... must be located to afford protection from heavy seas. The hose must be stored in a location that is... metal. Couplings shall either: (1) Use National Standard fire hose coupling threads for the 11/2 inch... shall be connected to outlets at all times. However, in heavy weather on open decks where no protection...

Using relative humidity to predict spotfire probability on prescribed burns

Treesearch

John R. Weir

2007-01-01

Spotfires have and always will be a problem that burn bosses and fire crews will have to contend with on prescribed burns. Weather factors (temperature, wind speed and relative humidity) are the main variables burn bosses can use to predict and monitor prescribed fire behavior. At the Oklahoma State University Research Range, prescribed burns are conducted during...

Effect of litter type upon fuel-moisture indicator stick values

Treesearch

W. L. Fons; C. M. Countryman

1950-01-01

Instructions for establishing fire-weather stations in Region 5 have usually specified that the fuel-moisture indicator sticks be placed over a bed of ponderosa pine needles. This specification was made to insure uniform ground-cover effect for all stations. Because ponderosa pine needles are not readily available in all areas of California fire control...

Temporal fluctuations in soil water repellency following wildfire in chaparral steeplands, southern California

Treesearch

K.R. Hubbert; V. Oriol

2005-01-01

Soil water repellency is partularly common in unburned chaparral, and its degree and duration can be influenced by seasonal weather conditions. Water repellency tends to increase in dry soils, whil eit decreases or vanishes following precipitation or extended periods of soil moisture. The 15426 ha Williams Fire provided an opportunity to investigate post-fire...

An analysis of large chaparral fires in San Diego County, CA

Treesearch

Bob Eisele

2015-01-01

San Diego County, California, holds the records for the largest area burned and greatest number of structures destroyed in California. This paper analyzes 102 years of fire history, population growth, and weather records from 1910 through 2012 to examine the factors that are driving the wildfire system. Annual area burned is compared with precipitation during the...

NFDRSPC: The National Fire-Danger Rating System on a Personal Computer

Treesearch

Bryan G. Donaldson; James T. Paul

1990-01-01

This user's guide is an introductory manual for using the 1988 version (Burgan 1988) of the National Fire-Danger Rating System on an IBM PC or compatible computer. NFDRSPC is a window-oriented, interactive computer program that processes observed and forecast weather with fuels data to produce NFDRS indices. Other program features include user-designed display...

Fires Rage Near Malibu, California

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

According to the NBCnews.com, Southern California firefighters were battling a growing, brush-fueled wildfire early Friday that had reached the beach in Ventura County and was pushing toward the upscale city of Malibu, officials said. Dubbed the Springs Fire, this "monster" of a wildfire has been made worse by howling Santa Ana winds and unusually dry vegetation. As of 2 am local time in California on Friday the 3rd, it was within "seven or eight miles" of Malibu, Ventura County Fire Department spokesman Bill Nash said. Weather conditions are not cooperating in the containment of this fire. The Weather Channel has predicted dry winds from offshore that will bring gusts of 40 to 50 miles per hour to the Southern California region on Friday the 3rd which could easily spread the fire. A complication to the winds is the extremely dry plant life left from a season in which only about five inches of rain fell in the area. The Springs Fire grew to 10,000 acres and was ten percent contained as of early Friday morning, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Prevention. Evacuations took place Thursday, and as of Friday morning 15 homes had been damaged. More than 2,000 homes and 100 commercial properties were under threat from the fire and those numbers could grow with weather conditions today (May 3). Currently the fire is burning in a rural area outside of Malibu, but it doesn't have to go very far to get to some expensive homes and more populated areas. It's current direction has it burning down the mountainside toward Malibu. Firefighters expect to receive help from tankers and helicopters in the air Friday morning, according to a release from the Ventura County Fire Department. The cause of the fire remained under investigation Friday. There had been no lightning or other natural fire-starting phenomenon in the area when the blaze began, Nash said. This natural-color satellite image was collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite on May 02, 2013. Actively burning areas, detected by MODIS’s thermal bands, are outlined in red. NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz LANCE/EOSDIS MODIS Rapid Response Team, GSFC. Caption by Lynn Jenner with information from NBCnews.com NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Modelling fire frequency and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain using reanalysis data and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2013-09-01

We develop fire occurrence and burned area models in peninsular Spain, an area of high variability in climate and fuel types, for the period 1990-2008. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming to the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climatic and fuel conditions. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) as modelling algorithms and temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed, taken from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, as well as the components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as predictors. We also computed the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as an additional predictor for the models of burned area. We found two contrasting fire regimes in terms of area burned and number of fires: one characterized by a bimodal annual pattern, characterizing the Nemoral and Oro-boreal phytoclimatic types, and another one exhibiting an unimodal annual cycle, with the fire season concentrated in the summer months in the Mediterranean and Arid regions. The fire occurrence models attained good skill in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, yielding in some zones notably high correlation coefficients between the observed and modelled inter-annual fire frequencies. Total area burned also exhibited a high dependence on the meteorological drivers, although their ability to reproduce the observed annual burned area time series was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, and also SPEI in some of the burned area models, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire modelling applications and leaving the door opened to the development a more complex modelling framework based on these predictors. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential usefulness of ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the reconstruction of historical fire-climate relationships at the scale of analysis. Fire frequency predictions may provide a preferable basis for past fire history reconstruction, long-term monitoring and the assessment of future climate impacts on fire regimes across regions, posing several advantages over burned area as response variable.

Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, A.; Finney, M.

2009-04-01

Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and intensity maps over large areas (10,000 - 2,000,000 ha). The MTT algorithm is parallelized for multi-threaded processing and is imbedded in a number of research and applied fire modeling applications. High performance computers (e.g., 32-way 64 bit SMP) are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the 32 bit desktop FlamMap3 program (www.fire.org). Extensive testing has shown that this algorithm can replicate large fire boundaries in the heterogeneous landscapes that typify much of the wildlands in the western U.S. In this paper, we describe the application of the MTT algorithm to understand spatial patterns of burn probability (BP), and to analyze wildfire risk to key human and ecological values. The work is focused on a federally-managed 2,000,000 ha landscape in the central interior region of Oregon State, USA. The fire-prone study area encompasses a wide array of topography and fuel types and a number of highly valued resources that are susceptible to fire. We quantitatively defined risk as the product of the probability of a fire and the resulting consequence. Burn probabilities at specific intensity classes were estimated for each 100 x 100 m pixel by simulating 100,000 wildfires under burn conditions that replicated recent severe wildfire events that occurred under conditions where fire suppression was generally ineffective (97th percentile, August weather). We repeated the simulation under milder weather (70th percentile, August weather) to replicate a "wildland fire use scenario" where suppression is minimized to manage fires for fuel reduction. The average BP was calculated for these scenarios to examine variation within and among a number of key designated management units, including forest-urban interface, conservation areas, protected species habitat, municipal watersheds, recreation areas, and others. To quantify risk, we developed a number of loss-benefit functions using fire effects models that relate fire intensity to tree mortality and biomass consumption. We used these relationships to measure the change in highly-valued old forest, designated wildlife conservation areas, aboveground carbon, surface fuels, and other wildland values. The loss-benefit functions were then coupled with BP's for different intensity classes to estimate expected value change (risk) for each pixel. For a subset of the study area we also measured the change in risk from fuels management for selected resources. Estimates of BP, excluding non burnable fuels (water, rock), fro the simulations ranged from 0.00001 to 0.026 within the study area, with a mean value of 0.007. In comparison, the annual burn probability estimated from fire occurrence data within the study area (1910 - 2003) was 0.0022. The estimate from simulations represents the average probability of a random pixel burning from a single large fire that escapes suppression, hence some difference is expected. Variation in BP among designated conservation and fire protection units was relatively large and illustrated spatial differences in wildfire likelihood among highly values resources. For instance, among the 130 different forest-urban interface areas, average BP varied from 0.0001 to 0.02. Average BP for nesting sites used by the endangered Northern spotted owl averaged 0.04 and varied from 0.001 to 0.01. The marginal BP's for high fire intensities was higher for many of the conservation areas compared the surrounding managed forest. Conservation areas that were located on the lee side of non-burnable fuels such as lava flows and lakes showed markedly reduced BP. When wildfire probabilities were combined with habitat loss functions for the Northern spotted owl, we observed expected loss from a random wildfire event ranging from 0.0 to 9.4% with a mean value of 1.5%. Expected loss was strongly correlated with BP for owl habitat, apparently because fires at very low intensities caused understory mortality and reduced stand canopy closure below minimum levels. The effect of simulating strategic fuel treatments on a subunit of the area resulted in significant decrease in expected loss of owl habitat. The effect of changing weather from a severe to mild (97th to 70th) percentile weather resulted in a dramatic 8-fold drop in BP and reduced the average wildfire size. However, the reduction was not uniform with the departures well correlated with specific fuel models. In total, this work demonstrated the application of wildfire spread models to quantitative risk assessment for fuels management on federally-managed lands in the U.S. The analyses revealed spatial variation in BP that is useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and guiding other wildfire mitigation activities. The work also illuminated the conflict between biodiversity conservation efforts on federally-managed lands and the high wildfire risk on fire-prone landscapes.

Abrupt Increases in Amazonian Tree Mortality Due to Drought-Fire Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silverio, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nobrega, Caroline C.;

Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions.

PubMed

Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K; Nepstad, Daniel C; Morton, Douglas C; Putz, Francis E; Coe, Michael T; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N; Davidson, Eric A; Nóbrega, Caroline C; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

2014-04-29

Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW ⋅ m(-1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.

Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions

PubMed Central

Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nóbrega, Caroline C.; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

2014-01-01

Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW⋅m−1). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change. PMID:24733937

Estimating the fuel moisture content of indicator sticks from selected weather variables

Treesearch

Theodore G. Storey

1965-01-01

Equations were developed to predict the fuel moisture content of indicator sticks from the controlling weather variables. Moisture content of ⅛-inch thick basswood slats used in the South and East could be determined with about equal precision by equation in the critical low moisture range or by weighing at fire danger stations. The most useful equation...

A review of the Forest Service Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) network

Treesearch

John Zachariassen; Karl F. Zeller; Ned Nikolov; Tom McClelland

2003-01-01

The RAWS network and RAWS data-use systems are closely reviewed and summarized in this report. RAWS is an active program created by the many land-management agencies that share a common need for accurate and timely weather data from remote locations for vital operational and program decisions specific to wildland and prescribed fires. A RAWS measures basic observable...

Fuel and weather influence wildfires in sand pine forests

Treesearch

W. A. Hough

1973-01-01

A complex combination of fuel and weather factors accounts for the dangerous fires that often develop during the spring in sand pine forests of Florida. Moisture content of live needles is lowest in March, and resin and energy contents reach their yearly highs during the 4-month period from February through May. These fuel properties become critical, however, only when...

Testing a basic assumption of shrubland fire management: Does the hazard of burning increase with the age of fuels?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moritz, Max A.; Keeley, Jon E.; Johnson, Edward A.; Schaffner, Andrew A.

2004-01-01

This year's catastrophic wildfires in southern California highlight the need for effective planning and management for fire-prone landscapes. Fire frequency analysis of several hundred wildfires over a broad expanse of California shrublands reveals that there is generally not, as is commonly assumed, a strong relationship between fuel age and fire probabilities. Instead, the hazard of burning in most locations increases only moderately with time since the last fire, and a marked age effect of fuels is observed only in limited areas. Results indicate a serious need for a re-evaluation of current fire management and policy, which is based largely on eliminating older stands of shrubland vegetation. In many shrubland ecosystems exposed to extreme fire weather, large and intense wildfires may need to be factored in as inevitable events.

Using weather in forest management

Treesearch

Michael A. Fosberg

1986-01-01

The summer of 1933 in northwest Oregon had been exceptionally hot and dry. When in mid-August, hot, dry winds blew in from the east, all the fire crews were ready. But there were not enough of them. Scattered fires that started in the coast range merged into what became known as the Tillamook Bum. In 1986, the Forest Service is researching procedures to forecast...

Potential fire behavior is reduced following forest restoration treatments

Treesearch

Peter Z. Fule; Charles McHugh; Thomas A. Heinlein; W. Wallace Covington

2001-01-01

Potential fire behavior was compared under dry, windy weather conditions in 12 ponderosa pine stands treated with alternative thinning prescriptions in the wildland/urban interface of Flagstaff, Arizona. Prior to thinning, stands averaged 474 trees/ acre, 158 ft2/acre basal area, crown bulk density 0.0045 lb/ft3, and crown base height 19.2 ft. Three thinning treatments...

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Avi Bar Massada; Volker C. Radeloff; Susan I. Stewart; Todd J. Hawbaker

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather...

Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather

Treesearch

Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Chao Li; James M. Lenihan; T. Scott Rupp; Florent Mouillot

2006-01-01

The relative importance of variables in determining area burned is an important management consideration although gaining insights from existing empirical data has proven difficult. The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modeled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The...

Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather.

Treesearch

Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Chao Li; James M. Lenihan; T. Scott Rupp; Florent Mouillot

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of nlodelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer &...

Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather

Treesearch

Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; Michael D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Chao Li; James M. Lenihan; T. Scott Rupp; Florent Mouillot

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer &...

Multi-scalar influence of weather and climate on very large-fires in the Eastern United States

Treesearch

John T. Abatzoglou; Renaud Barbero; Crystal A. Kolden; Katherine C. Hegewisch; Narasimhan K. Larkin; Harry Podschwit

2014-01-01

A majority of area burned in the Eastern United States (EUS) results from a limited number of exceptionally large wildfires. Relationships between climatic conditions and the occurrence of very large-fires (VLF) in the EUS were examined using composite and climate-niche analyses that consider atmospheric factors across inter-annual, sub-seasonal and synoptic temporal...

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

PubMed

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Powerhouse fire, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Smoczyk, Gregory M.; Reeves, Ryan R.

2013-01-01

Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. Existing empirical models were used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm for the 2013 Powerhouse fire near Lancaster, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively low probability for debris-flow occurrence in response to the design storm. However, volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 44 of the 73 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes between 10,000 and 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest that even though the likelihood of debris flow is relatively low, the consequences of post-fire debris-flow initiation within the burn area may be significant for downstream populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National-Weather-Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches, and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

Lagged cumulative spruce budworm defoliation affects the risk of fire ignition in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

James, Patrick M A; Robert, Louis-Etienne; Wotton, B Mike; Martell, David L; Fleming, Richard A

2017-03-01

Detailed understanding of forest disturbance interactions is needed for effective forecasting, modelling, and management. Insect outbreaks are a significant forest disturbance that alters forest structure as well as the distribution and connectivity of combustible fuels at broad spatial scales. The effect of insect outbreaks on fire activity is an important but contentious issue with significant policy consequences. The eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) is a native defoliating insect in eastern North America whose periodic outbreaks create large patches of dead fir and spruce trees. Of particular concern to fire and forest managers is whether these patches represent an increased fire risk, if so, for how long, and how the relationship between defoliation and fire risk varies through space and time. Previous work suggests a temporary increase in flammability in budworm-killed forests, but regional and seasonal variability in these relationships has not been examined. Using an extensive database on historical lightning-caused fire ignitions and spruce budworm defoliation between 1963 and 2000, we assess the relative importance of cumulative defoliation and fire weather on the probability of ignition in Ontario, Canada. We modeled fire ignition using a generalized additive logistic regression model that accounts for temporal autocorrelation in fire weather. We compared two ecoregions in eastern Ontario (Abitibi Plains) and western Ontario (Lake of the Woods) that differ in terms of climate, geomorphology, and forest composition. We found that defoliation has the potential to both increase and decrease the probability of ignition depending on the time scale, ecoregion, and season examined. Most importantly, we found that lagged spruce budworm defoliation (8-10 yr) increases the risk of fire ignition whereas recent defoliation (1 yr) can decrease this risk. We also found that historical defoliation has a greater influence on ignition risk during the spring than during the summer fire season. Given predicted increases in forest insect activity due to global change, these results represent important information for fire management agencies that can be used to refine existing models of fire risk. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

On wildfire complexity, simple models and environmental templates for fire size distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, M. M.; Bradstock, R.; Gill, M.; Sadler, R.

2012-12-01

Vegetation fires affect some 370 Mha annually. At global and continental scales, fire activity follows predictable spatiotemporal patterns driven by gradients and seasonal fluctuations of primary productivity and evaporative demand that set constraints for fuel accumulation rates and fuel dryness, two key ingredients of fire. At regional scales, fires are also known to affect some landscapes more than others and within landscapes to occur preferentially in some sectors (e.g. wind-swept ridges) and rarely in others (e.g. wet gullies). Another common observation is that small fires occur relatively frequent yet collectively burn far less country than relatively infrequent large fires. These patterns of fire activity are well known to management agencies and consistent with their (informal) models of how the basic drivers and constraints of fire (i.e. fuels, ignitions, weather) vary in time and space across the landscape. The statistical behaviour of these landscape fire patterns has excited the (academic) research community by showing some consistency with that of complex dynamical systems poised at a phase transition. The common finding that the frequency-size distributions of actual fires follow power laws that resemble those produced by simple cellular models from statistical mechanics has been interpreted as evidence that flammable landscapes operate as self-organising systems with scale invariant fire size distributions emerging 'spontaneously' from simple rules of contagious fire spread and a strong feedback between fires and fuel patterns. In this paper we argue that the resemblance of simulated and actual fire size distributions is an example of equifinality, that is fires in model landscapes and actual landscapes may show similar statistical behaviour but this is reached by qualitatively different pathways or controlling mechanisms. We support this claim with two key findings regarding simulated fire spread mechanisms and fire-fuel feedbacks. Firstly, we demonstrate that the power law behaviour of fire size distributions in the widely used Drossel and Schwabl (1992) Forest Fire Model (FFM) is strictly conditional on simulating fire spread as a cell-to-cell contagion over a fixed distance; the invariant scaling of fire sizes breaks down under the slightest variation in that distance, suggesting that pattern formation in the FFM is irreconcilable with the reality of disparate rates and modes of fire spread observed in the field. Secondly, we review field evidence showing that fuel age effects on the probability of fire spread, a key assumption in simulation models like the FFM, do not generally apply across flammable environments. Finally, we explore alternative explanations for the formation of scale invariant fire sizes in real landscapes. Using observations from southern Australian forest regions we demonstrate that the spatiotemporal patterns of fuel dryness and magnitudes of fire driving weather events set strong environmental templates for regional fire size distributions.

Degradation Behavior and Accelerated Weathering of Composite Boards Produced from Waste Tetra Pak® Packaging Materials

Treesearch

Nural Yilgor; Coskun Kose; Evren Terzi; Aysel Kanturk Figen; Rebecca Ibach; S. Nami Kartal; Sabriye Piskin

2014-01-01

Manufacturing panels from Tetra Pak® (TP) packaging material might be an alternative to conventional wood-based panels. This study evaluated some chemical and physical properties as well as biological, weathering, and fire performance of panels with and without zinc borate (ZnB) by using shredded TP packaging cartons. Such packaging material, a worldwide well-known...

Predicting Near-surface Winds with WindNinja for Wind Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenbrenner, N. S.; Forthofer, J.; Shannon, K.; Butler, B.

2016-12-01

WindNinja is a high-resolution diagnostic wind model widely used by operational wildland fire managers to predict how near-surface winds may influence fire behavior. Many of the features which have made WindNinja successful for wildland fire are also important for wind energy applications. Some of these features include flexible runtime options which allow the user to initialize the model with coarser scale weather model forecasts, sparse weather station observations, or a simple domain-average wind for what-if scenarios; built-in data fetchers for required model inputs, including gridded terrain and vegetation data and operational weather model forecasts; relatively fast runtimes on simple hardware; an extremely user-friendly interface; and a number of output format options, including KMZ files for viewing in Google Earth and GeoPDFs which can be viewed in a GIS. The recent addition of a conservation of mass and momentum solver based on OpenFOAM libraries further increases the utility of WindNinja to modelers in the wind energy sector interested not just in mean wind predictions, but also in turbulence metrics. Here we provide an evaluation of WindNinja forecasts based on (1) operational weather model forecasts and (2) weather station observations provided by the MesoWest API. We also compare the high-resolution WindNinja forecasts to the coarser operational weather model forecasts. For this work we will use the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model and the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. Forecasts will be evaluated with data collected in the Birch Creek valley of eastern Idaho, USA between June-October 2013. Near-surface wind, turbulence data, and vertical wind and temperature profiles were collected at very high spatial resolution during this field campaign specifically for use in evaluating high-resolution wind models like WindNinja. This work demonstrates the ability of WindNinja to generate very high-resolution wind forecasts for wind energy applications and evaluates the forecasts produced by two different initialization methods with data collected in a broad valley surrounded by complex terrain.

Breeding pond selection and movement patterns by eastern spadefoot toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) in relation to weather and edaphic conditions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cathryn H. Greenberg; George W. Tanner

2004-08-31

Cathryn H. Greenberg and George W. Tanner. 2004. Breeding pond selection and movement patterns by eastern spadefoot toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) in relation to weather and edaphic conditions. J. Herp. 38(4):569-577. Abstract: Eastern Spadefoot Toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) require fish-free, isolated, ephemeral ponds for breeding but otherwise inhabit the surrounding uplands, commonly xeric longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) wiregrass (Aristida beyrichiana). Hence both pond and upland conditions can potentially affect their breeding biology, and population persistence. Hardwood invasion due to fire suppression in sandhills could alter upland and pond suitability by higher hardwood density and increased transpiration. In this paper we explore breedingmore » and neonatal emigration movements in relation to weather, hydrological conditions of ponds, and surrounding upland matrices. We use 9 years of data from continuous monitoring with drift fences and pitfall traps at 8 ephemeral ponds in 2 upland matrices: regularly-burned, savanna-like sandhills (n = 4), and hardwood-invaded sandhills (n = 4). Neither adult nor neonate captures differed between ponds within the 2 upland matrices, suggesting that they are tolerant of upland heterogeneity created by fire frequency. Explosive breeding occurred during 9 periods and in all seasons; adults were captured rarely otherwise. At a landscape-level rainfall, maximum change in barometric pressure, and an interaction between those 2 variables were significant predictors of explosive breeding. At a pond-level, rainfall, change in pond depth during the month prior to breeding, and days since a pond was last dry were significant predictors of adult captures. Transformation date, rather than weather, was associated with neonatal emigrations, which usually were complete within a week. Movement by first-captured adults and neonates was directional, but adult emigrations were apparently not always toward their origin. Our results suggest that Spadefoot Toads are highly adapted to breeding conditions and upland habitat heterogeneity created by weather patterns and fire frequency in Florida sandhills.« less

Science in 60 – Tabletop Fire Prediction

ScienceCinema

Cary, Lyle

2018-01-16

At the Interagency Fire Center at Los Alamos National Laboratory, experts rely on the state-of-the-art Simtable to help them predict the unpredictable. With algorithms that include camera-based object-tracking and projection developed by the Laboratory, the emergency operations team can simulate a wildland fire spreading across any terrain. The table system, developed and marketed by Simtable, a Santa Fe, N.M., company, takes into account weather, vegetation and fuel conditions. The project also received funding from the LANS Venture Acceleration Fund to improve the user interface.

Science in 60 – Tabletop Fire Prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cary, Lyle

At the Interagency Fire Center at Los Alamos National Laboratory, experts rely on the state-of-the-art Simtable to help them predict the unpredictable. With algorithms that include camera-based object-tracking and projection developed by the Laboratory, the emergency operations team can simulate a wildland fire spreading across any terrain. The table system, developed and marketed by Simtable, a Santa Fe, N.M., company, takes into account weather, vegetation and fuel conditions. The project also received funding from the LANS Venture Acceleration Fund to improve the user interface.

Scale-dependent controls on the area burned in the boreal forest of Canada, 1980-2005

Treesearch

Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Meg A. Krawchuck; Mike D. Flannigan; Lynn M. Bowman; Max A. Moritz

2011-01-01

In the boreal forest of North America, as in any fire-prone biome, three environmental factors must coincide for a wildfire to occur: an ignition source, flammable vegetation, and weather that is conducive to fire. Despite recent advances, the relative importance of these factors remains the subject of some debate. The aim of this study was to develop models that...

An Analysis of the Air Force Bomb Range Fire

Treesearch

Dale D. Wade; Darold E. Ward

1973-01-01

There are few places in the world where wildfire behavior can be studied strictly as it is affected by weather variables, both ambient and fire-induced. Eastern North Carolina offers this opportunity. Large, homogeneous expanses of highly combustible fuel exist on land that has a maximum elevation of 10 ft. (3 m) above mean sea 1evel. Fine fuel weights of 15 tons/...

The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada

Treesearch

Xianli Wang; Marc-Andre Parisien; Mike D. Flannigan; Sean A. Parks; Kerry R. Anderson; John M. Little; Steve W. Taylor

2014-01-01

Given that they can burn for weeks or months, wildfires in temperate and boreal forests may become immense (eg., 100 - 04 km2). However, during the period within which a large fire is 'active', not all days experience weather that is conducive to fire spread; indeed most of the spread occurs on a small proportion (e.g., 1 - 15 days) of not necessarily...

Developing Baselines for Prescribed Burning Smoke Management Plans and Best Management Practices

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

skillful application of fire to natural fuels under conditions of weather, fuel moisture , soil moisture , etc., to allow confine- ment of the fire to...also the potential for excessive soil compaction and disturbance, stimulation of invasive nonnative plant species, removal of natural nutrient...that not only provide safe, accessible, maneuverable, and defensible range conditions necessary for mission training, but also support biodiversity

Canopy damage to conifer plantations within a large mixed-severity wildfire varies with stand age

Treesearch

Jonathan R. Thompson; Thomas A. Spies; Keith A. Olsen

2011-01-01

The 2002 Biscuit Fire burned at mixed-severities encompassing over 200,000 ha of publicly owned forestland, including more than 8300 ha of conifer plantations. We used pre- and post-fire digital aerial photography to examine how the level of canopy damage varied within these plantations in relation to topography, weather, vegetation-cover, and management history, with...

Fire and Flood - Extending NOAA Resources to the Classroom and the Citizen Science for Resilient and Informed Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, M. A.; Schranz, S.

2017-12-01

The Front Range of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado is a region particularly susceptable to both wildfire and flash flooding. As the population of Colorado continues to boom, it is critical to enhance the familiarity of resources that are available to the general public to understand, predict, and react to these dangers. At the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), a NOAA Cooperative Institute in partnership with Colorado State University, several research products related fire and precipitation processes have been evaluated and developed for public use. As part of a pilot program under development at CIRA, extensive use of CIRA public-facing products are now being used as part of teacher professional development programs available to educators on an ad-hoc basis along the Front Range. These PD programs address state standards in weather prediction, hazard mitigation, and natural disaster awareness, and are designed to incorporate NOAA resources into the classroom, including use of satellite imagery products such as the Satellite Loop Interactive Data Explorer in Real-Time (SLIDER) package, fire weather products developed at the Earth Systems Research Laboratory, and others. Resilience-focused efforts are drawn from fire weather training resources developed for and used by NWS IMET teams, and state suggestions for fire and flood mitigation efforts, tying in these concepts to the basic science made observable using NOAA products. Teachers become proficient in using products as teaching elements in the classroom, with the end goal of improving both awareness and resiliency while improving the awareness of NOAA products. Citizen science programs also incorporate these elements in ad-hoc presentations to museum groups and through partnerships with citizen science networks along the Front Range. Subject-matter expert presentations to community members of local organizations such as the Soaring Eagle Ecology Center and the Anythink Library Network stimulates interest and helps build community connections to increase awareness about the dangers of fire flood and drought. Examples and lessons learned from both programs will be presented.

Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moritz, Max A.; Moody, Tadashi J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Hughes, Mimi; Hall, Alex

2010-02-01

Fire plays a crucial role in many ecosystems, and a better understanding of different controls on fire activity is needed. Here we analyze spatial variation in fire danger during episodic wind events in coastal southern California, a densely populated Mediterranean-climate region. By reconstructing almost a decade of fire weather patterns through detailed simulations of Santa Ana winds, we produced the first high-resolution map of where these hot, dry winds are consistently most severe and which areas are relatively sheltered. We also analyzed over half a century of mapped fire history in chaparral ecosystems of the region, finding that our models successfully predict where the largest wildfires are most likely to occur. There is a surprising lack of information about extreme wind patterns worldwide, and more quantitative analyses of their spatial variation will be important for effective fire management and sustainable long-term urban development on fire-prone landscapes.

Wildfire as a hydrological and geomorphological agent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shakesby, R. A.; Doerr, S. H.

2006-02-01

Wildfire can lead to considerable hydrological and geomorphological change, both directly by weathering bedrock surfaces and changing soil structure and properties, and indirectly through the effects of changes to the soil and vegetation on hydrological and geomorphological processes. This review summarizes current knowledge and identifies research gaps focusing particularly on the contribution of research from the Mediterranean Basin, Australia and South Africa over the last two decades or so to the state of knowledge mostly built on research carried out in the USA. Wildfire-induced weathering rates have been reported to be high relative to other weathering processes in fire-prone terrain, possibly as much as one or two magnitudes higher than frost action, with important implications for cosmogenic-isotope dating of the length of rock exposure. Wildfire impacts on soil properties have been a major focus of interest over the last two decades. Fire usually reduces soil aggregate stability and can induce, enhance or destroy soil water repellency depending on the temperature reached and its duration. These changes have implications for infiltration, overland flow and rainsplash detachment. A large proportion of publications concerned with fire impacts have focused on post-fire soil erosion by water, particularly at small scales. These have shown elevated, sometimes extremely large post-fire losses before geomorphological stability is re-established. Soil losses per unit area are generally negatively related to measurement scale reflecting increased opportunities for sediment storage at larger scales. Over the last 20 years, there has been much improvement in the understanding of the forms, causes and timing of debris flow and landslide activity on burnt terrain. Advances in previously largely unreported processes (e.g. bio-transfer of sediment and wind erosion) have also been made. Post-fire hydrological effects have generally also been studied at small rather than large scales, with soil water repellency effects on infiltration and overland flow being a particular focus. At catchment scales, post-fire accentuated peakflow has received more attention than changes in total flow, reflecting easier measurement and the greater hazard posed by the former. Post-fire changes to stream channels occur over both short and long terms with complex feedback mechanisms, though research to date has been limited. Research gaps identified include the need to: (1) develop a fire severity index relevant to soil changes rather than to degree of biomass destruction; (2) isolate the hydrological and geomorphological impacts of fire-induced soil water repellency changes from other important post-fire changes (e.g. litter and vegetation destruction); (3) improve knowledge of the hydrological and geomorphological impacts of wildfire in a wider range of fire-prone terrain types; (4) solve important problems in the determination and analysis of hillslope and catchment sediment yields including poor knowledge about soil losses other than at small spatial and short temporal scales, the lack of a clear measure of the degradational significance of post-fire soil losses, and confusion arising from errors in and lack of scale context for many quoted post-fire soil erosion rates; and (5) increase the research effort into past and potential future hydrological and geomorphological changes resulting from wildfire.

7 CFR 331.14 - Incident response. 6

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

...; bomb threats and suspicious packages; and emergencies such as fire, gas leak, explosion, power outage... information systems); severe weather and other natural disasters; workplace violence; bomb threats and...

An operational system of fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Miguel M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2017-04-01

A methodology is presented to assess fire danger based on the probability of exceedance of prescribed thresholds of daily released energy. The procedure is developed and tested over Mediterranean Europe, defined by latitude circles of 35 and 45°N and meridians of 10°W and 27.5°E, for the period 2010-2016. The procedure involves estimating the so-called static and daily probabilities of exceedance. For a given point, the static probability is estimated by the ratio of the number of daily fire occurrences releasing energy above a given threshold to the total number of occurrences inside a cell centred at the point. The daily probability of exceedance which takes into account meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is in turn estimated based on a Generalized Pareto distribution with static probability and FWI as covariates of the scale parameter. The rationale of the procedure is that small fires, assessed by the static probability, have a weak dependence on weather, whereas the larger fires strongly depend on concurrent meteorological conditions. It is shown that observed frequencies of exceedance over the study area for the period 2010-2016 match with the estimated values of probability based on the developed models for static and daily probabilities of exceedance. Some (small) variability is however found between different years suggesting that refinements can be made in future works by using a larger sample to further increase the robustness of the method. The developed methodology presents the advantage of evaluating fire danger with the same criteria for all the study area, making it a good parameter to harmonize fire danger forecasts and forest management studies. Research was performed within the framework of EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF). Part of methods developed and results obtained are on the basis of the platform supported by The Navigator Company that is currently providing information about fire meteorological danger for Portugal for a wide range of users.

Optimizing prescribed fire allocation for managing fire risk in central Catalonia.

PubMed

Alcasena, Fermín J; Ager, Alan A; Salis, Michele; Day, Michelle A; Vega-Garcia, Cristina

2018-04-15

We used spatial optimization to allocate and prioritize prescribed fire treatments in the fire-prone Bages County, central Catalonia (northeastern Spain). The goal of this study was to identify suitable strategic locations on forest lands for fuel treatments in order to: 1) disrupt major fire movements, 2) reduce ember emissions, and 3) reduce the likelihood of large fires burning into residential communities. We first modeled fire spread, hazard and exposure metrics under historical extreme fire weather conditions, including node influence grid for surface fire pathways, crown fraction burned and fire transmission to residential structures. Then, we performed an optimization analysis on individual planning areas to identify production possibility frontiers for addressing fire exposure and explore alternative prescribed fire treatment configurations. The results revealed strong trade-offs among different fire exposure metrics, showed treatment mosaics that optimize the allocation of prescribed fire, and identified specific opportunities to achieve multiple objectives. Our methods can contribute to improving the efficiency of prescribed fire treatment investments and wildfire management programs aimed at creating fire resilient ecosystems, facilitating safe and efficient fire suppression, and safeguarding rural communities from catastrophic wildfires. The analysis framework can be used to optimally allocate prescribed fire in other fire-prone areas within the Mediterranean region and elsewhere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

Fires and the rise and regulation of atmospheric oxygen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenton, T. M.

2012-04-01

When did oxygen first approach 21% of the atmosphere, and what regulates it there? These are enduring puzzles in Earth system science, and fire science provides a key part of the answers. The results of ignition experiments with natural fuels indicate that to start a fire requires at least 17% oxygen in the atmosphere. Thus, the appearance of charcoal in the fossil record around 420 million years ago in the Silurian Period indicates atmospheric oxygen was >17% then. Here we hypothesise that the first non-vascular plants, which began colonising the land surface around 50 million years beforehand (in the Ordovician Period), caused a rise in atmospheric oxygen concentration to a level >17% sufficient to support fires. We base this on weathering experiments with an analogue for the first non-vascular plants, and modelling with the COPSE model of the coupled phosphorus, carbon and oxygen biogeochemical cycles. The experiments reveal that a non-vascular plant (the moss Physcomitrella patens) hugely amplifies phosphorus weathering by a factor of up to 60. The modelling shows that early plant colonisation could hence have increased phosphorus supply to the ocean, fuelling photosynthetic production and organic carbon burial, which is the long-term source of oxygen to the atmosphere. Atmospheric oxygen is predicted to have risen through the late Ordovician and into the Silurian. Since 370 million years ago, the nearly continuous record of charcoal indicates that oxygen has remained above 17% of the atmosphere. At the same time, the continued persistence of forests means fires have never been so frequent as to prevent trees from regenerating, setting a contested upper limit on oxygen of around 30%. The restriction of oxygen variation within a factor of two suggests remarkable regulation, because the whole oxygen reservoir has been replaced over 100 times in this interval. Fires are a prime candidate for forming part of the regulating mechanism, and giving it a 'set point', as they show a strongly non-linear sensitivity to oxygen variations around the present concentration. Fires in turn suppress vegetation and phosphorus weathering and transfer phosphorus to the ocean. Both processes reduce the long-term oxygen source from organic carbon burial, producing negative feedback. Here we explore their relative importance using the COPSE model, and revise our predictions of atmospheric oxygen variation over Phanerozoic time.

Wild Fire Emissions for the NOAA Operational HYSPLIT Smoke Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H. C.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; McQueen, J.; DiMego, G.; Kondragunta, S.; Gorline, J.; Huang, J. P.; Stunder, B.; Stein, A. F.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

2015-12-01

Particulate Matter (PM) generated from forest fires often lead to degraded visibility and unhealthy air quality in nearby and downstream areas. To provide near-real time PM information to the state and local agencies, the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) operational HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) smoke modeling system (NWS/HYSPLIT smoke) provides the forecast of smoke concentration resulting from fire emissions driven by the NWS North American Model 12 km weather predictions. The NWS/HYSPLIT smoke incorporates the U.S. Forest Service BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework (BlueSky) to provide smoke fire emissions along with the input fire locations from the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)'s Hazard Mapping System fire and smoke detection system. Experienced analysts inspect satellite imagery from multiple sensors onboard geostationary and orbital satellites to identify the location, size and duration of smoke emissions for the model. NWS/HYSPLIT smoke is being updated to use a newer version of USFS BlueSky. The updated BlueSky incorporates the Fuel Characteristic Classification System version 2 (FCCS2) over the continental U.S. and Alaska. FCCS2 includes a more detailed description of fuel loadings with additional plant type categories. The updated BlueSky also utilizes an improved fuel consumption model and fire emission production system. For the period of August 2014 and June 2015, NWS/HYSPLIT smoke simulations show that fire smoke emissions with updated BlueSky are stronger than the current operational BlueSky in the Northwest U.S. For the same comparisons, weaker fire smoke emissions from the updated BlueSky were observed over the middle and eastern part of the U.S. A statistical evaluation of NWS/HYSPLIT smoke predicted total column concentration compared to NOAA NESDIS GOES EAST Aerosol Smoke Product retrievals is underway. Preliminary results show that using the newer version of BlueSky leads to improved performance of NWS/HYSPLIT-smoke for June 2015. These results are partially due to the default fuel loading selected for Canadian fires that lead to stronger fire emissions there. The use of more realistic Canadian fuel loading may improve NWS/HYSPLIT smoke forecast.

Effects of Lightning and Other Meteorological Factors on Fire Activity in the North American Boreal Forest: Implications for Fire Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, D.; Wang, J.; Ichoku, C.; Remer, L. A.

2010-01-01

The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000-2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-kin gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above 5700m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts-

Wood preservation

Treesearch

Kevin Archer; Stan Lebow

2006-01-01

Wood preservation can be interpreted to mean protection from fire, chemical degradation, mechanical wear, weathering, as well as biological attack. In this chapter, the term preservation is applied more restrictively to protection from biological hazards.

The integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Berg, Ken; Boyd, Chad S.; Boyte, Stephen P.; Bradford, John B.; Brunson, Ed; Cissel, John H.; Conway, Courtney J.; Chalfoun, Anna D.; Chambers, Jeanne C.; Clark, Patrick; Coates, Peter S.; Crist, Michele R.; Davis, Dawn M.; DeCrappeo, Nicole; Deibert, Patricia A.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Evers, Louisa B.; Finch, Deborah M.; Finn, Sean P.; Germino, Matthew J.; Glenn, Nancy F.; Gucker, Corey; Hall, John A.; Hanser, Steven E.; Havlina, Douglas W.; Heinrichs, Julie; Heller, Matt; Homer, Collin G.; Hunter, Molly E.; Jacobs, Ruth W.; Karl, Jason W.; Kearney, Richard; Kemp, Susan K; Kilkenny, Francis F.; Knick, Steven T.; Launchbaugh, Karen; Manier, Daniel J.; Mayer, Kenneth E.; Meyer, Susan E.; Monroe, Adrian; MontBlanc, Eugénie; Newingham, Beth A.; Pellant, Michael L.; Phillips, Susan L.; Pilliod, David S.; Ricca, Mark A.; Richardson, Bryce A.; Rose, Jeffrey A.; Shaw, Nancy; Sheley, Roger L.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Wiechman , Lief A.; Wylie, Bruce K.

2016-01-01

The Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (hereafter Strategy, DOI 2015) outlined the need for coordinated, science-based adaptive management to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem. A key component of this management approach is the identification of knowledge gaps that limit implementation of effective strategies to meet current management challenges. The tasks and actions identified in the Strategy address several broad topics related to management of the sagebrush ecosystem. This science plan is organized around these topics and specifically focuses on fire, invasive plant species and their effects on altering fire regimes, restoration, sagebrush and greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), and climate and weather.

Interactions among livestock grazing, vegetation type, and fire behavior in the Murphy Wildland Fire Complex in Idaho and Nevada, July 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Launchbaugh, Karen; Brammer, Bob; Brooks, Matthew L.; Bunting, Stephen C.; Clark, Patrick; Davison, Jay; Fleming, Mark; Kay, Ron; Pellant, Mike; Pyke, David A.

2008-01-01

A series of wildland fires were ignited by lightning in sagebrush and grassland communities near the Idaho-Nevada border southwest of Twin Falls, Idaho in July 2007. The fires burned for over two weeks and encompassed more than 650,000 acres. A team of scientists, habitat specialists, and land managers was called together by Tom Dyer, Idaho BLM State Director, to examine initial information from the Murphy Wildland Fire Complex in relation to plant communities and patterns of livestock grazing. Three approaches were used to examine this topic: (1) identify potential for livestock grazing to modify fuel loads and affect fire behavior using fire models applied to various vegetation types, fuel loads, and fire conditions; (2) compare levels of fuel consumed within and among major vegetation types; and (3) examine several observed lines of difference and discontinuity in fuel consumed to determine what factors created these contrasts. The team found that much of the Murphy Wildland Fire Complex burned under extreme fuel and weather conditions that likely overshadowed livestock grazing as a factor influencing fire extent and fuel consumption in many areas where these fires burned. Differences and abrupt contrast lines in the level of fuels consumed were affected mostly by the plant communities that existed on a site before fire. A few abrupt contrasts in burn severity coincided with apparent differences in grazing patterns of livestock, observed as fence-line contrasts. Fire modeling revealed that grazing in grassland vegetation can reduce surface rate of spread and fire-line intensity to a greater extent than in shrubland types. Under extreme fire conditions (low fuel moisture, high temperatures, and gusty winds), grazing applied at moderate utilization levels has limited or negligible effects on fire behavior. However, when weather and fuel-moisture conditions are less extreme, grazing may reduce the rate of spread and intensity of fires allowing for patchy burns with low levels of fuel consumption. The team suggested that targeted grazing to accomplish fuel objectives holds promise but requires detailed planning that includes clearly defined goals for fuel modification and appropriate monitoring to assess effectiveness. It was recommended that a pilot plan be devised to strategically place grazed blocks across a landscape to create fuel-reduction bands capable of influencing fire behavior. Also suggested was the development of a general technical report that highlights information and examples of how livestock grazing influences fire extent, severity, and intensity. Finally, the team encouraged continued research and monitoring of the effects of the Murphy Wildland Fire Complex. Much more can be learned from the effects of this extensive fire complex that may offer insight for future management decisions.

48 CFR 14.402-3 - Postponement of openings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

....g., flood, fire, accident, weather conditions, strikes, or Government equipment blackout or... preclude amendment of the solicitation as prescribed in 14.208, the time specified for opening of bids will...

48 CFR 14.402-3 - Postponement of openings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

....g., flood, fire, accident, weather conditions, strikes, or Government equipment blackout or... preclude amendment of the solicitation as prescribed in 14.208, the time specified for opening of bids will...

Fire severity estimated from remote sensing data to evaluate the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire-Environment (CAWFE) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliva, P.; Coen, J.; Schroeder, W.

2013-12-01

Fire severity defined as the degree of damage originated from fire on soils and vegetation immediately after the fire, is affected by weather conditions (i.e. wind, air humidity), terrain characteristics (i.e. slope, aspect) and fuel properties (i.e. tree density, fuel moisture content). In this study we evaluated the relationships between fire severity estimated from Earth Observing Advance Land Imager (EO-ALI) images and the heat fluxes produced by the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire-Environment (CAWFE) model (Coen 2013). We present the results for a large fire occurred in New Mexico in June 2012 which burned 44,330 acres. The EO-ALI sensor (30 m spatial resolution) has nine spectral bands, six of them were designed to mimic Landsat bands and the three additional bands cover 443, 867.5 and 1250 nm. We used a physically-based approach to estimate fire severity developed by De Santis et al. (2009). This method classifies the satellite image into Geophysical Composite burned index (GeoCBI) values, which represent the fire severity within the fire-affected area, using radiative transfer model simulated spectra as reference. This method has been used to characterize fire severity levels using Landsat images and validated with field data (R2 > 0.85). Based on those results we expected a better performance of EO-ALI images due to its improved spectral resolution. On the other hand, CAWFE is composed of two parts: a numerical weather prediction model and a fire behavior module that represents the growth of a wildland fire in response to factors such as wind, terrain, and fuels, and includes the fire's impact on the atmosphere. To perform the evaluation we selected a stratified random sample by fire severity level. The values of maximum heat flux (sensible, latent), and total heat flux showed a higher correlation with the higher levels of fire severity (GeoCBI: 2.8-3) than with the medium levels of fire severity (GeoCBI: 2.3-2.8). However, the total heat flux proved to have a high correlation with the fire severity estimated in terms of GeoCBI values. The GeoCBI is a semi-quantitative index that takes into account the effects on vegetation by means of evaluating several variables such as, percentage of scorched leaves, height of carbon and change in LAI. Therefore, the results obtained in this study pointed out the good performance of the CAWFE model simulating the effects of fire in vegetation. Interpreting the outputs of the CAWFE model in terms of fire severity will help fire managers and decision makers understand the effects of the fire and prioritize the areas more severely affected. Fire severity classification estimated as GeoCBI values. The GeoCBI range from 0 to 3, where 0 means not affected by fire, and 3 means very high fire severity.

Animation of Sequoia Forest Fire

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Continued hot, dry weather in the American west contributed to the spread of numerous fires over the weekend of July 29-30, 2000. This is the most active fire season in the United States since 1988, when large portions of Yellowstone National Park burned. One of the largest fires currently burning has consumed more than 63,000 acres in Sequoia National Forest. This NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) image shows the fire on the afternoon of July 30, 2000. Note the clouds above the smoke plume. These often form during large fires because updrafts lift warm air near the ground high into the atmosphere, cooling the air and causing the water vapor it contains to condense into droplets. The soot particles in the smoke also act as condensation nuclei for the droplets. View the animation of GOES data to see the smoke forming clouds. Image and Animation by Robert Simmon and Marit-Jentoft Nilsen, NASA GSFC, based on data from NOAA.

water-soluble fluorocarbon coating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nanelli, P.

1979-01-01

Water-soluble fluorocarbon proves durable nonpolluting coating for variety of substrates. Coatings can be used on metals, masonry, textiles, paper, and glass, and have superior hardness and flexibility, strong resistance to chemicals fire, and weather.

A robust scientific workflow for assessing fire danger levels using open-source software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitolo, Claudia; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Smith, Paul

2017-04-01

Modelling forest fires is theoretically and computationally challenging because it involves the use of a wide variety of information, in large volumes and affected by high uncertainties. In-situ observations of wildfire, for instance, are highly sparse and need to be complemented by remotely sensed data measuring biomass burning to achieve homogeneous coverage at global scale. Fire models use weather reanalysis products to measure energy release and rate of spread but can only assess the potential predictability of fire danger as the actual ignition is due to human behaviour and, therefore, very unpredictable. Lastly, fire forecasting systems rely on weather forecasts to extend the advance warning but are currently calibrated using fire danger thresholds that are defined at global scale and do not take into account the spatial variability of fuel availability. As a consequence, uncertainties sharply increase cascading from the observational to the modelling stage and they might be further inflated by non-reproducible analyses. Although uncertainties in observations will only decrease with technological advances over the next decades, the other uncertainties (i.e. generated during modelling and post-processing) can already be addressed by developing transparent and reproducible analysis workflows, even more if implemented within open-source initiatives. This is because reproducible workflows aim to streamline the processing task as they present ready-made solutions to handle and manipulate complex and heterogeneous datasets. Also, opening the code to the scrutiny of other experts increases the chances to implement more robust solutions and avoids duplication of efforts. In this work we present our contribution to the forest fire modelling community: an open-source tool called "caliver" for the calibration and verification of forest fire model results. This tool is developed in the R programming language and publicly available under an open license. We will present the caliver R package, illustrate the main functionalities and show the results of our preliminary experiments calculating fire danger thresholds for various regions on Earth. We will compare these with the existing global thresholds and, lastly, demonstrate how these newly-calculated regional thresholds can lead to improved calibration of fire forecast models in an operational setting.

Carbon combustion in boreal black spruce and jack pine stands of the Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, X. J.; Baltzer, J. L.; Cumming, S.; Day, N.; Goetz, S. J.; Johnstone, J. F.; Rogers, B. M.; Turetsky, M. R.; Mack, M. C.

2017-12-01

Increased fire frequency, extent, and severity is expected to strongly impact the structure and function of northern ecosystems. One of the most important functions of the boreal forest is its ability to sequester and store carbon (C). Increases in combustion of vegetation and organic soils, associated with an intensifying fire regime, could shift this biome across a C cycle threshold: from net accumulation of C from the atmosphere over multiple fire cycles, to a net loss, which in turn would cause a positive feedback to climate warming. In order for this shift to occur, fires would have to release old carbon that escaped combustion in one or more previous fires. In this study, we examined boreal black spruce and jack pine forests that burned during the 2014 fire season in the Northwest Territories, Canada. We assessed both aboveground and soil organic layer (SOL) combustion, with the goal of determining how fire weather, site environmental conditions, and pre-fire stand characteristics affect total C emissions. On average 3.35 Kg C /m2 was combusted and almost 90% of this can be attributed to combustion of the SOL. Our results indicate that the greatest carbon combustion occurs at mature black spruce sites in intermediately drained landscape positions and that variables associated with fire weather and date of burn are not important predictors of C combustion. We then used radiocarbon dating of the residual soil organic layer to determine the maximum age of soil C lost. Dates of the residual surface organic layers in a low ( 5 cm) and high ( 17 cm) severity burn were approximately 1995 and 1900, respectively. These preliminary results indicate that our metrics of burn depth are related to age of the soil C lost and suggest that high severity burns can result in combustion of old C. Using these data, we aim to determine if there are ecosystem, landscape, or regional controls that either facilitate or protect old C loss from combustion. Estimating changes in C combustion and C storage is essential for assessing the consequences of an altered fire regime on permafrost dynamics, vegetation regeneration, and the initiation of successional trajectories in boreal ecosystems.

Weather monitoring and forecasting over eastern Attica (Greece) in the frame of FLIRE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Makropoulos, Christtos; Mimikou, Maria; Papathanasiou, Chrysoula; Poursanidis, Dimitris

2015-04-01

In the frame of FLIRE project a Decision Support System has been built with the aim to support decision making of Civil Protection Agencies and local stakeholders in the area of east Attica (Greece), in the cases of forest fires and floods. In this presentation we focus on a specific action that focuses on the provision of high resolution short-term weather forecasting data as well as of dense meteorological observations over the study area. Both weather forecasts and observations serve as an input in the Weather Information Management Tool (WIMT) of the Decision Support System. We focus on: (a) the description of the adopted strategy for setting-up the operational weather forecasting chain that provides the weather forecasts for the FLIRE project needs, (b) the presentation of the surface network station that provides real-time weather monitoring of the study area and (c) the strategy adopted for issuing smart alerts for thunderstorm forecasting based of real-time lightning observations as well as satellite observations.

7 CFR 457.141 - Rice crop insurance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

...) That is flood irrigated; and (d) That is not wild rice. 7. Insurable Acreage In addition to the... loss that occur during the insurance period: (1) Adverse weather conditions (except drought); (2) Fire...

7 CFR 457.141 - Rice crop insurance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

...) That is flood irrigated; and (d) That is not wild rice. 7. Insurable Acreage In addition to the... loss that occur during the insurance period: (1) Adverse weather conditions (except drought); (2) Fire...

7 CFR 457.141 - Rice crop insurance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

...) That is flood irrigated; and (d) That is not wild rice. 7. Insurable Acreage In addition to the... loss that occur during the insurance period: (1) Adverse weather conditions (except drought); (2) Fire...

7 CFR 457.141 - Rice crop insurance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

...) That is flood irrigated; and (d) That is not wild rice. 7. Insurable Acreage In addition to the... loss that occur during the insurance period: (1) Adverse weather conditions (except drought); (2) Fire...

Negligent and intentional fires in Portugal: the role of human and biophysical drivers on the temporal distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário; Amraoui, Malik; Tedim, Fantina

2017-04-01

Portugal is the European country with higher number of fires (NF) and burnt area (BA) per unit of land area. The annual number of fires for which the cause of fire is known is not constant and relatively small (typically less than 50% of annual number of records). Nevertheless, the analysis of the fire causes reveals that the vast majority (99%) of the fires in Portugal are of human origin and only a small fraction are of natural origin (1% caused by lightning). The study period will be the recent years of 2012 - 2014, when fire recording procedures are more reliable and the cause of ignition was assessed for more than 50% (19376) of the fires. The fires with approximately seventy different causes of fire defined/recognized by the Portuguese Forest Service (ICNF) were grouped into negligent, intentional and natural fires. For this study the authors proposes the use of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics level II, which divides Portugal in 5 basic economic regions, namely Norte, Centro, Área Metropolitana de Lisboa, Alentejo, and Algarve. Most of the fires (54%) occur in the so-called critical period defined between July and September, but high wildfire activity may also occur in few periods of the remaining months (especially in February and March). The intentional fires represent 40% of total NF but accounts for 53% of total BA during the study period. The temporal distribution are described and interpreted in terms of the climate, fire weather, land use land cover (LULC), distance to communication routes (roads and railways) and topographic variables (altitude, slope) using statistical analysis and GIS techniques. Results points to: a) higher number of negligent than intentional fires; b) higher BA on critical period in years 2012 and 2013; c) decrease in time and decrease from critical period to non-critical period of the number of fires, in all regions; and d) the dominant role of fire weather in the observed temporal patterns. We strongly believe that the findings of this study contribute to a better fire prevention, firefighting and crisis management. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; (ii) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF for providing the fire data.

STS-127 Firing Room

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-07-11

NASA mission managers watch the latest weather radar on a monitor in Firing Room Four of the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, Sunday, July 12, 2009. Endeavour is set to launch at 7:13p.m. EDT with the crew of STS-127 and start a 16-day mission that will feature five spacewalks and complete construction of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's Kibo laboratory. Photo Credit: (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

Modeling Multiple-Core Updraft Plume Rise for an Aerial Ignition Prescribed Burn by Coupling Daysmoke with a Cellular Automata Fire Model

Treesearch

G. L Achtemeier; S. L. Goodrick; Y. Liu

2012-01-01

Smoke plume rise is critically dependent on plume updraft structure. Smoke plumes from landscape burns (forest and agricultural burns) are typically structured into “sub-plumes” or multiple-core updrafts with the number of updraft cores depending on characteristics of the landscape, fire, fuels, and weather. The number of updraft cores determines the efficiency of...

A comparison of three approaches for simulating fine-scale surface winds in support of wildland fire management: Part I. Model formulation and comparison against measurements

Treesearch

Jason M. Forthofer; Bret W. Butler; Natalie S. Wagenbrenner

2014-01-01

For this study three types of wind models have been defined for simulating surface wind flow in support of wildland fire management: (1) a uniform wind field (typically acquired from coarse-resolution (,4 km) weather service forecast models); (2) a newly developed mass-conserving model and (3) a newly developed mass and momentumconserving model (referred to as the...

Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires.

PubMed

Metallinou, Maria-Monika; Log, Torgrim

2017-07-20

General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km² of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires.

Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires

PubMed Central

Metallinou, Maria-Monika; Log, Torgrim

2017-01-01

General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km2 of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires. PMID:28726752

Test stand for Titan 34D SRM static firing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glozman, Vladimir; Shipway, George

1988-01-01

An existing liquid engine test stand at the AF Astronautics Laboratory was refurbished and extensively modified to accommodate the static firing of the Titan 34D solid rocket motor (SRM) in the vertical nozzle down orientation. The main load restraint structure was designed and built to secure the SRM from lifting off during the firing. In addition, the structure provided weather protection, temperature conditioning of the SRM, and positioning of the measurement and recording equipment. The structure was also used for stacking/de-stacking of SRM segments and other technological processes. The existing stand, its foundation and anchorage were thoroughly examined and reanalyzed. Necessary stand modifications were carried out to comply with the requirements of the Titan 34D SRM static firing.

The tragic fire event of June 17, 2017 in Portugal: the meteorological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DaCamara, C.; Trigo, R. M.; Pinto, M. M.; Nunes, S. A.; Trigo, I. F.

2017-12-01

Like Mediterranean Europe, Portugal is prone to the occurrence of large and destructive wildfires that have serious impacts at the socio-economic and ecological levels. A tragic example is the episode of June 17, 2017 at Pedrógão Grande-Góis, with an official death toll of 64 people, almost 500 buildings destroyed and a continuous patch of more than 42 thousand hectares burned in one week. Climate and meteorology play a determinant role in the onset and spreading of large wildfire events in the Mediterranean basin. Two main kinds of atmospheric mechanisms may be identified. At the regional and the seasonal levels, a wetter-than usual winter followed by a warmer and drier than average spring makes the landscape prone to the occurrence of large fires. At the local and the daily scales, extreme weather conditions favor the ignition and spread of wildfires. This dual role may be assessed by means of indices of meteorological fire danger like FWI and DSR. We show that the severity of the 2017 fire season was correctly anticipated by means of a statistical model based on cumulated values of DSR starting on April 1. We then show that extreme danger of fire on June 17 was correctly forecasted for the area of Pedrógão Grande-Góis, based on values of estimated probability of exceedance of daily released energy by active fires. These two statistical approaches are on the basis of a website developed at Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL) at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon. With more than 400 registered users, the website relies on products disseminated by the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF), coordinated by IPMA, the Portuguese Weather Service.

Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China.

PubMed

Ye, Tao; Wang, Yao; Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

2017-01-01

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990-2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management.

Nearest Star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golub, Leon; Pasachoff, Jay M.

2014-03-01

Preface; Acknowledgments; 1. The Sun; 2. The once and future Sun; 3. What we see: the solar disk; 4. What we don't see; 5. Eclipses; 6. Space missions; 7. Between fire and ice; 8. Space weather; Bibliography; Glossary; Index.

Asynchronous Timing of Lightning Strikes and Santa Ana Winds in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bendix, J.; Hartnett, J. J.

2016-12-01

In Southern California, "Santa Ana" foehn winds are thought to be responsible for the most extreme fire weather conditions, and have contributed to many of the largest wildfires on record. In recent decades, the majority of wildfires in the region, whether during Santa Ana wind (SAW) conditions or not, have been caused by humans. But absent human influence, the only likely natural ignition source is lightning. Downslope foehn winds seem unlikely to coincide with the convection that favors lightning, raising the question of how frequently natural ignition would be available when Santa Ana winds are blowing. We address this question by examining the extent to which lightning actually occurs during SAW conditions. We use daily lightning counts downloaded from the NOAA Severe Weather Data Inventory (in turn derived from the Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network) and the compilation of SAW days published by Abatzoglou et al. in 2013 to determine how frequently lightning struck on SAW days. We counted all strikes recorded in Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange and San Diego counties during the period 1986-2010. Our results indicate that lightning rarely coincides with Santa Ana conditions. In our 25-year study period, there were 694 SAW days. Only 22 of those (3.2%) experienced any lightning at all. This contrasts with non-SAW days, 20% of which experienced at least some lightning within the five county region. The lightning that did occur was sparse: an average of 10.6 strikes per day on those SAW days that did experience it, compared with an average of 398.8 strikes/day on the non-SAW days that experienced lightning. These results suggest that the fire regime prior to EuroAmerican settlement may have been significantly different from that which has prevailed for the past century or more. Some fires may have occurred under Santa Ana conditions - whether started by Native Americans, or by lighting that struck earlier, and smoldered until SAW conditions arose. But it does seem clear that ignition was limited during Santa Ana conditions. Debates over the impact of EuroAmericans on southern California fire regimes have focused on the role of fire suppression; a more important factor may have been provision of abundant ignitions under extreme fire weather conditions from which they would otherwise have been absent.

Two daily smoke maxima in eighteenth century London air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, R. Giles

Varied electrostatics experiments followed Benjamin Franklin's pioneering atmospheric investigations. In Knightsbridge, Central London, John Read (1726-1814) installed a sensing rod in the upper part of his house and, using a pith ball electrometer and Franklin chimes, monitored atmospheric electricity from 1789 to 1791. Atmospheric electricity is sensitive to weather and smoke pollution. In calm weather conditions, Read observed two daily electrification maxima in moderate weather, around 9 am and 7 pm. This is likely to represent a double diurnal cycle in urban smoke. Before the motor car and steam railways, one source of the double maximum smoke pattern was the daily routine of fire lighting for domestic heating.

Modeling spatial patterns of wildfire susceptibility in southern California: Applications of MODIS remote sensing data and mesoscale numerical weather models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Philipp

This dissertation investigates the potential of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery and mesoscale numerical weather models for mapping wildfire susceptibility in general and for improving the Fire Potential Index (FPI) in southern California in particular. The dissertation explores the use of the Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) from MODIS data for mapping relative greenness (RG) of vegetation and subsequently for computing the FPI. VARI-based RG was validated against in situ observations of live fuel moisture. The results indicate that VARI is superior to the previously used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for computing RG. FPI computed using VARI-based RG was found to outperform the traditional FPI when validated against historical fire detections using logistic regression. The study further investigates the potential of using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) on MODIS data for estimating live and dead fractions of vegetation. MESMA fractions were compared against in situ measurements and fractions derived from data of a high-resolution, hyperspectral sensor. The results show that live and dead fractions obtained from MODIS using MESMA are well correlated with the reference data. Further, FPI computed using MESMA-based green vegetation fraction in lieu of RG was validated against historical fire occurrence data. MESMA-based FPI performs at a comparable level to the traditional NDVI-based FPI, but can do so using a single MODIS image rather than an extensive remote sensing time series as required for the RG approach. Finally this dissertation explores the potential of integrating gridded wind speed data obtained from the MM5 mesoscale numerical weather model in the FPI. A new fire susceptibility index, the Wind-Adjusted Fire Potential Index (WAFPI), was introduced. It modifies the FPI algorithm by integrating normalized wind speed. Validating WAFPI against historical wildfire events using logistic regression indicates that gridded data sets of wind speed are a valuable addition to the FPI as they can significantly increase the probability range of the fitted model and can further increase the model's discriminatory power over that of the traditional FPI.

STS-127 Firing Room

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-07-11

John P. Shannon, Manager, NASA Space Shuttle Program Office watches the latest weather radar in Firing Room Four of the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, Sunday, July 12, 2009. Endeavour is set to launch at 7:13p.m. EDT with the crew of STS-127 and start a 16-day mission that will feature five spacewalks and complete construction of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's Kibo laboratory. Photo Credit: (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

Greek Wildfires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Hot, dry weather has contributed to a string of fires that burned in Greece during the first two weeks of July 2000. Smoke from one of these fires is streaming across Greece and out into the Aegean Sea in this image taken July 13, 2000, by the Sea-viewing Wide Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS). For more about SeaWiFS, visit the SeaWiFS home page. Provided by the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

Photo series for quantifying fuels and assessing fire risk in giant sequoia groves. Forest Service general technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weise, D.R.; Gelobter, A.; Haase, S.M.

1997-03-01

Fuels and stand inventory data are presented for giant sequoia by using 18 different photos located in giant sequoia/mixed conifer stands in the Sierra Nevada of California. Total fuel loading ranges from 7 to 72 tons/acre. The stands have been subjected to a variety of disturbances including timbers harvesting, wildfire, prescribed fire, and recreational use. Fire behavior predictions were made by using 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile weather conditions and the inventoried fuels information. The long-term visual impacts of the various management activities can also be partially assessed with this photo series.

Risk for large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2015-08-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on the number of large forest fires (over 10 ha fires) and burned area in Finland. For this purpose, we utilized a strong relationship between fire occurrence and the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) during 1996-2014. We used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. Our results also reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase in forest-fire danger. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is more important cause of fires.

Factors affecting fuel break effectiveness in the control of large fires on the Los Padres National Forest, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Brennan, Teresa J.

2011-01-01

As wildfires have increased in frequency and extent, so have the number of homes developed in the wildland-urban interface. In California, the predominant approach to mitigating fire risk is construction of fuel breaks, but there has been little empirical study of their role in controlling large fires.We constructed a spatial database of fuel breaks on the Los Padres National Forest in southern California to better understand characteristics of fuel breaks that affect the behaviour of large fires and to map where fires and fuel breaks most commonly intersect. We evaluated whether fires stopped or crossed over fuel breaks over a 28-year period and compared the outcomes with physical characteristics of the sites, weather and firefighting activities during the fire event. Many fuel breaks never intersected fires, but others intersected several, primarily in historically fire-prone areas. Fires stopped at fuel breaks 46% of the time, almost invariably owing to fire suppression activities. Firefighter access to treatments, smaller fires and longer fuel breaks were significant direct influences, and younger vegetation and fuel break maintenance indirectly improved the outcome by facilitating firefighter access. This study illustrates the importance of strategic location of fuel breaks because they have been most effective where they provided access for firefighting activities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fiantis, Dian; Nelson, Malik; Van Ranst, Eric

Java Island, Indonesia with abundant amount of pyroclastic deposits is located in the very active and dynamic Pacific Ring of Fires. Studying the geochemical weathering indices of these pyroclastic deposits is important to get a clear picture about weathering profiles on deposits resulting from the eruption of Mt. Merapi. Immediately after the first phase of the eruption (March to June 2006), moist and leached pyroclastic deposits were collected. These pyroclastic deposits were found to be composed of volcanic glass, plagioclase feldspar in various proportions, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, olivine, amphibole, and titanomagnetite. Total elemental composition of the bulk samples (including trace elementsmore » and heavy metals) were determined by wet chemical methods and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyses. Weathering of the pyroclastic deposits was studied using various weathering indices. The Ruxton ratio, weathering index of Parker, Vought resudual index and chemical index of weathering of moist pyroclastic are lower than the leached sample but the alteration indices (chemical and plagioclase) are slightly higher in the moist compared to the leached pyroclastic deposits.« less

Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries.

PubMed

Amatulli, Giuseppe; Camia, Andrea; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús

2013-04-15

The impacts of climate change on forest fires have received increased attention in recent years at both continental and local scales. It is widely recognized that weather plays a key role in extreme fire situations. It is therefore of great interest to analyze projected changes in fire danger under climate change scenarios and to assess the consequent impacts of forest fires. In this study we estimated burned areas in the European Mediterranean (EU-Med) countries under past and future climate conditions. Historical (1985-2004) monthly burned areas in EU-Med countries were modeled by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI). Monthly averages of the CFWI sub-indices were used as explanatory variables to estimate the monthly burned areas in each of the five most affected countries in Europe using three different modeling approaches (Multiple Linear Regression - MLR, Random Forest - RF, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines - MARS). MARS outperformed the other methods. Regression equations and significant coefficients of determination were obtained, although there were noticeable differences from country to country. Climatic conditions at the end of the 21st Century were simulated using results from the runs of the regional climate model HIRHAM in the European project PRUDENCE, considering two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2-B2). The MARS models were applied to both scenarios resulting in projected burned areas in each country and in the EU-Med region. Results showed that significant increases, 66% and 140% of the total burned area, can be expected in the EU-Med region under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the predictability of fire occurrence and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2014-01-01

Most fire protection agencies throughout the world have developed forest fire risk forecast systems, usually building upon existing fire danger indices and meteorological forecast data. In this context, the daily predictability of wildfires is of utmost importance in order to allow the fire protection agencies to issue timely fire hazard alerts. In this study, we address the predictability of daily fire occurrence using the components of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and related variables calculated from the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis, ERA-Interim. We develop daily fire occurrence models in peninsular Spain for the period 1990-2008 and, considering different minimum burned area thresholds for fire definition, assess their ability to reproduce the inter-annual fire frequency variability. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climate/fuel conditions. We then extend the analysis in order to assess the predictability of monthly burned areas. The sensitivity of the models to the level of spatial aggregation of the data is also evaluated. Additionally, we investigate the gain in model performance with the inclusion of socioeconomic and land use/land cover (LULC) covariates in model formulation. Fire occurrence models have attained good performance in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, being able to faithfully reproduce the inter-annual variability of fire frequency. Total area burned has exhibited some dependence on the meteorological drivers, although model performance was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire occurrence prediction in the study area. The results were improved when using aggregated data across regions compared to when data were sampled at the grid-box level. The inclusion of socioeconomic and LULC covariates contributed marginally to the improvement of the models, and in most cases attained no relevant contribution to total explained variance - excepting northern Spain, where anthropogenic factors are known to be the major driver of fires. Models of monthly fire counts performed better in the case of fires larger than 0.1 ha, and for the rest of the thresholds (1, 10 and 100 ha) the daily occurrence models improved the predicted inter-annual variability, indicating the added value of daily models. Fire frequency predictions may provide a preferable basis for past fire history reconstruction, long-term monitoring and the assessment of future climate impacts on fire regimes across regions, posing several advantages over burned area as a response variable. Our results leave the door open to the development a more complex modelling framework based on daily data from numerical climate model outputs based on the FWI system.

Interactions among wildland fires in a long-established Sierra Nevada natural fire area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, B.M.; Miller, J.D.; Thode, A.E.; Kelly, M.; van Wagtendonk, J.W.; Stephens, S.L.

2009-01-01

We investigate interactions between successive naturally occurring fires, and assess to what extent the environments in which fires burn influence these interactions. Using mapped fire perimeters and satellite-based estimates of post-fire effects (referred to hereafter as fire severity) for 19 fires burning relatively freely over a 31-year period, we demonstrate that fire as a landscape process can exhibit self-limiting characteristics in an upper elevation Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forest. We use the term 'self-limiting' to refer to recurring fire as a process over time (that is, fire regime) consuming fuel and ultimately constraining the spatial extent and lessening fire-induced effects of subsequent fires. When the amount of time between successive adjacent fires is under 9 years, and when fire weather is not extreme (burning index <34.9), the probability of the latter fire burning into the previous fire area is extremely low. Analysis of fire severity data by 10-year periods revealed a fair degree of stability in the proportion of area burned among fire severity classes (unchanged, low, moderate, high). This is in contrast to a recent study demonstrating increasing high-severity burning throughout the Sierra Nevada from 1984 to 2006, which suggests freely burning fires over time in upper elevation Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forests can regulate fire-induced effects across the landscape. This information can help managers better anticipate short- and long-term effects of allowing naturally ignited fires to burn, and ultimately, improve their ability to implement Wildland Fire Use programs in similar forest types. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaste, Emeline; Girardin, Martin P.; Kaplan, Jed O.; Portier, Jeanne; Bergeron, Yves; Hély, Christelle

2018-03-01

Wildland fires are the main natural disturbance shaping forest structure and composition in eastern boreal Canada. On average, more than 700 000 ha of forest burns annually and causes as much as CAD 2.9 million worth of damage. Although we know that occurrence of fires depends upon the coincidence of favourable conditions for fire ignition, propagation, and fuel availability, the interplay between these three drivers in shaping spatiotemporal patterns of fires in eastern Canada remains to be evaluated. The goal of this study was to reconstruct the spatiotemporal patterns of fire activity during the last century in eastern Canada's boreal forest as a function of changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation. We addressed this objective using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-LMfire, which we parametrized for four plant functional types (PFTs) that correspond to the prevalent tree genera in eastern boreal Canada (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus). LPJ-LMfire was run with a monthly time step from 1901 to 2012 on a 10 km2 resolution grid covering the boreal forest from Manitoba to Newfoundland. Outputs of LPJ-LMfire were analyzed in terms of fire frequency, net primary productivity (NPP), and aboveground biomass. The predictive skills of LPJ-LMfire were examined by comparing our simulations of annual burn rates and biomass with independent data sets. The simulation adequately reproduced the latitudinal gradient in fire frequency in Manitoba and the longitudinal gradient from Manitoba towards southern Ontario, as well as the temporal patterns present in independent fire histories. However, the simulation led to the underestimation and overestimation of fire frequency at both the northern and southern limits of the boreal forest in Québec. The general pattern of simulated total tree biomass also agreed well with observations, with the notable exception of overestimated biomass at the northern treeline, mainly for PFT Picea. In these northern areas, the predictive ability of LPJ-LMfire is likely being affected by the low density of weather stations, which leads to underestimation of the strength of fire-weather interactions and, therefore, vegetation consumption during extreme fire years. Agreement between the spatiotemporal patterns of fire frequency and the observed data across a vast portion of the study area confirmed that fire therein is strongly ignition limited. A drier climate coupled with an increase in lightning frequency during the second half of the 20th century notably led to an increase in fire activity. Finally, our simulations highlighted the importance of both climate and fire in vegetation: despite an overarching CO2-induced enhancement of NPP in LPJ-LMfire, forest biomass was relatively stable because of the compensatory effects of increasing fire activity.

Quantifying soil burn severity for hydrologic modeling to assess post-fire effects on sediment delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobre, Mariana; Brooks, Erin; Lew, Roger; Kolden, Crystal; Quinn, Dylan; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete

2017-04-01

Soil erosion is a secondary fire effect with great implications for many ecosystem resources. Depending on the burn severity, topography, and the weather immediately after the fire, soil erosion can impact municipal water supplies, degrade water quality, and reduce reservoirs' storage capacity. Scientists and managers use field and remotely sensed data to quickly assess post-fire burn severity in ecologically-sensitive areas. From these assessments, mitigation activities are implemented to minimize post-fire flood and soil erosion and to facilitate post-fire vegetation recovery. Alternatively, land managers can use fire behavior and spread models (e.g. FlamMap, FARSITE, FOFEM, or CONSUME) to identify sensitive areas a priori, and apply strategies such as fuel reduction treatments to proactively minimize the risk of wildfire spread and increased burn severity. There is a growing interest in linking fire behavior and spread models with hydrology-based soil erosion models to provide site-specific assessment of mitigation treatments on post-fire runoff and erosion. The challenge remains, however, that many burn severity mapping and modeling products quantify vegetation loss rather than measuring soil burn severity. Wildfire burn severity is spatially heterogeneous and depends on the pre-fire vegetation cover, fuel load, topography, and weather. Severities also differ depending on the variable of interest (e.g. soil, vegetation). In the United States, Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps, derived from Landsat satellite images, are used as an initial burn severity assessment. BARC maps are classified from either a Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) or differenced Normalized Burned Ratio (dNBR) scene into four classes (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High severity). The development of soil burn severity maps requires further manual field validation efforts to transform the BARC maps into a product more applicable for post-fire soil rehabilitation activities. Alternative spectral indices and modeled output approaches may prove better predictors of soil burn severity and hydrologic effects, but these have not yet been assessed in a model framework. In this project we compare field-verified soil burn severity maps to satellite-derived and modeled burn severity maps. We quantify the extent to which there are systematic differences in these mapping products. We then use the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) hydrologic soil erosion model to assess sediment delivery from these fires using the predicted and observed soil burn severity maps. Finally, we discuss differences in observed and predicted soil burn severity maps and application to watersheds in the Pacific Northwest to estimate post-fire sediment delivery.

Micromorphological characteristics of sandy forest soils recently impacted by wildfires in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maksimova, Ekaterina; Abakumov, Evgeny

2017-04-01

Two fire-affected soils were studied using micromorphological methods. The objective of the paper is to assess and compare fire effects on the micropedological organisation of soils in a forest-steppe zone of central Russia (Volga Basin, Togliatti city). Samples were collected in the green zone of Togliatti city. The results showed that both soils were rich in quartz and feldspar. Mica was highly present in soils affected by surface fires, while calcium carbonates were identified in the soils affected by crown fires. The type of plasma is humus-clay, but the soil assemblage is plasma-silt with a prevalence of silt. Angular and subangular grains are the most dominant soil particulates. No evidence of intensive weathering was detected. There was a decrease in the porosity of soils affected by fires as a consequence of soil pores filled with ash and charcoal.

Using climate information for fuels management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolden, Crystal A.; Brown, Timothy J.

2008-01-01

Climate has come to the forefront of wildfire discussions in recent years as research contributes to the general understanding of how climate influences fuels availability to burn, the occurrence of severe fire weather conditions and other wildfire parameters. This understanding has crossed over into wildfire management applications through the creation of tools like climate forecasts for wildfire and drought indices, which are now widely used in wildfire suppression and mitigation planning. The overall question is how can climate information help fire managers meet management objectives? Climate underlies weather. For example, a number of days could be generally wet, but that may occur in the context of a two-year overall drought. Knowing the baseline climate is not only critical to preventing escaped prescribed fires, but also how it may affect fire behavior, fire effects and whether or not fire managers will meet their fuels management objectives. Thus, for fire managers to use prescribed and WFU fire safely and effectively, and to minimize the number of escaped fires and conversions to suppression, they need to understand how current climate conditions will impact the use of fire. One example is the need to use prescribed fire under set “burn windows”. Since meteorological conditions vary considerably from year to year for a given day, fire managers will be more successful in utilizing burn windows effectively if they understand those climate thresholds conducive to an increased number of safe burn windows, and are able to predict and take advantage of those burn windows. While climate and wildfire has been studied extensively, climate and fire use has not. The initial goal of this project was to assess how climate impacts prescribed fire use in a more general sense. After a preliminary informal survey in the spring of 2003, we determined that 1) there is insufficient data (less than 10 years) to conduct empirical correlative studies similar to those of the relationships between climate and wildfire (e.g., Swetnam and Betancourt 1990), and 2) prescribed fire policy has many regulations that potentially inhibited the use of climate information for decision-making. It was also determined that because fire use is a human decision, it would be more informative to ask fire managers themselves how climate impacts fire use through their decision-making processes, and whether or not they use climate information for prescribed fire. The first task for this project was to complete a regional survey of prescribed fire managers in California and Nevada. During the second phase of the project, additional prescribed fire managers were surveyed across the country. During the third year a second survey of WFU managers was completed. The goals of these inquiries were to determine: 1) If fire managers use climate information for fuels management; 2) The perspective fire managers have towards climate affecting fuels management; 3) Determine any obstacles that make it difficult to use climate information for fuels management; and 4) Determine climate information managers need to help them make better decisions for fire use.

Tulsa Oklahoma Oktoberfest Tent Collapse Report

PubMed Central

Deal, Kelly E.; Synovitz, Carolyn K.; Goodloe, Jeffrey M.; King, Brandi; Stewart, Charles E.

2012-01-01

Background. On October 17, 2007, a severe weather event collapsed two large tents and several smaller tents causing 23 injuries requiring evacuation to emergency departments in Tulsa, OK. Methods. This paper is a retrospective analysis of the regional health system's response to this event. Data from the Tulsa Fire Department, The Emergency Medical Services Authority (EMSA), receiving hospitals and coordinating services were reviewed and analyzed. EMS patient care reports were reviewed and analyzed using triage designators assigned in the field, injury severity scores, and critical mortality. Results. EMT's and paramedics from Tulsa Fire Department and EMSA provided care at the scene under unified incident command. Of the 23 patients transported by EMS, four were hospitalized, one with critical spinal injury and one with critical head injury. One patient is still in ongoing rehabilitation. Discussion. Analysis of the 2007 Tulsa Oktoberfest mass casualty incident revealed rapid police/fire/EMS response despite challenges of operations at dark under severe weather conditions and the need to treat a significant number of injured victims. There were no fatalities. Of the patients transported by EMS, a minority sustained critical injuries, with most sustaining injuries amenable to discharge after emergency department care. PMID:22649732

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Mountain fire, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Smoczyk, Greg M.; Reeves, Ryan R.

2013-01-01

Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. We use empirical models to predict the probability and magnitude of debris flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Mountain fire near Palm Springs, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–100 percent) of debris flow for six of the drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 8 of the 14 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest there is a high likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National Weather Service–issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

Fire and deforestation dynamics in Amazonia (1973-2014).

PubMed

van Marle, Margreet J E; Field, Robert D; van der Werf, Guido R; Estrada de Wagt, Ivan A; Houghton, Richard A; Rizzo, Luciana V; Artaxo, Paulo; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2017-01-01

Consistent long-term estimates of fire emissions are important to understand the changing role of fire in the global carbon cycle and to assess the relative importance of humans and climate in shaping fire regimes. However, there is limited information on fire emissions from before the satellite era. We show that in the Amazon region, including the Arc of Deforestation and Bolivia, visibility observations derived from weather stations could explain 61% of the variability in satellite-based estimates of bottom-up fire emissions since 1997 and 42% of the variability in satellite-based estimates of total column carbon monoxide concentrations since 2001. This enabled us to reconstruct the fire history of this region since 1973 when visibility information became available. Our estimates indicate that until 1987 relatively few fires occurred in this region and that fire emissions increased rapidly over the 1990s. We found that this pattern agreed reasonably well with forest loss data sets, indicating that although natural fires may occur here, deforestation and degradation were the main cause of fires. Compared to fire emissions estimates based on Food and Agricultural Organization's Global Forest and Resources Assessment data, our estimates were substantially lower up to the 1990s, after which they were more in line. These visibility-based fire emissions data set can help constrain dynamic global vegetation models and atmospheric models with a better representation of the complex fire regime in this region.

Value of a dual-polarized gap-filling radar in support of southern California post-fire debris-flow warnings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jorgensen, David P.; Hanshaw, Maiana N.; Schmidt, Kevin M.; Laber, Jayme L; Staley, Dennis M.; Kean, Jason W.; Restrepo, Pedro J.

2011-01-01

A portable truck-mounted C-band Doppler weather radar was deployed to observe rainfall over the Station Fire burn area near Los Angeles, California, during the winter of 2009/10 to assist with debris-flow warning decisions. The deployments were a component of a joint NOAA–U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research effort to improve definition of the rainfall conditions that trigger debris flows from steep topography within recent wildfire burn areas. A procedure was implemented to blend various dual-polarized estimators of precipitation (for radar observations taken below the freezing level) using threshold values for differential reflectivity and specific differential phase shift that improves the accuracy of the rainfall estimates over a specific burn area sited with terrestrial tipping-bucket rain gauges. The portable radar outperformed local Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) National Weather Service network radars in detecting rainfall capable of initiating post-fire runoff-generated debris flows. The network radars underestimated hourly precipitation totals by about 50%. Consistent with intensity–duration threshold curves determined from past debris-flow events in burned areas in Southern California, the portable radar-derived rainfall rates exceeded the empirical thresholds over a wider range of storm durations with a higher spatial resolution than local National Weather Service operational radars. Moreover, the truck-mounted C-band radar dual-polarimetric-derived estimates of rainfall intensity provided a better guide to the expected severity of debris-flow events, based on criteria derived from previous events using rain gauge data, than traditional radar-derived rainfall approaches using reflectivity–rainfall relationships for either the portable or operational network WSR-88D radars. Part of the reason for the improvement was due to siting the radar closer to the burn zone than the WSR-88Ds, but use of the dual-polarimetric variables improved the rainfall estimation by ~12% over the use of traditional Z–R relationships.

Project CHECO Southeast Asia Report. Air Operations in Northern Laos, 1 November 1970 - 1 April 1971

DTIC Science & Technology

1971-05-03

to be of sufficient size and scope to warrant a significant increase in the daily tacair sortie rate provided by Seventh Air Force. The execution of...weather, however, delayed the operation. A last-minute change of HLZs was made by CAS, but weather and faulty execution precluded proper zone...Artillery Airborne Battlefield Command and Control Center Attacks by Fire Jtq 1£4+, .. Auto Defense du Choc . Technically an obsolete tenn now. Refers

Analysis of curved weathering steel box girder bridges in fire : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-05-31

Box girder bridges are becoming more common because of their ease of construction, pleasing aesthetics, and serviceability. Projects with curved : configuration and long spans can especially benefit from these advantages. However, the industry lacks ...

Introduction to prescribed fires in Southern ecosystems

Treesearch

Thomas A. Waldrop; Scott L. Goodrick

2012-01-01

This publication is a guide for resource managers on planning and executing prescribed burns in Southern forests and grasslands. It includes explanations of reasons for prescribed burning, environmental effects, weather, and techniques as well as general information on prescribed burning.

76 FR 20918 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a Petition To List Hermes...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-14

..., possibly due to biotic (drift, dispersal) and abiotic (landscape, fire regime) influences. Habitat Hermes... remain inactive under conditions of heavy cloud cover and cooler weather (Marschalek and Deutschman 2008...

Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China

PubMed Central

Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

2017-01-01

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990–2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management. PMID:28207837

Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) for Space Shuttle Launch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bardina, Jorge E.; Rajkumar, T.

2003-01-01

The Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) is a critical module of the Virtual Test Bed development to support 'go/no go' decisions for Space Shuttle operations in the Intelligent Launch and Range Operations program of NASA. The weather rules characterize certain aspects of the environment related to the launching or landing site, the time of the day or night, the pad or runway conditions, the mission durations, the runway equipment and landing type. Expert system rules are derived from weather contingency rules, which were developed over years by NASA. Backward chaining, a goal-directed inference method is adopted, because a particular consequence or goal clause is evaluated first, and then chained backward through the rules. Once a rule is satisfied or true, then that particular rule is fired and the decision is expressed. The expert system is continuously verifying the rules against the past one-hour weather conditions and the decisions are made. The normal procedure of operations requires a formal pre-launch weather briefing held on Launch minus 1 day, which is a specific weather briefing for all areas of Space Shuttle launch operations. In this paper, the Web-based Weather Expert System of the Intelligent Launch and range Operations program is presented.

Biomass burning aerosols and the low-visibility events in Southeast Asia

DOE PAGES

Lee, Hsiang-He; Bar-Or, Rotem Z.; Wang, Chien

2017-01-23

Fires including peatland burning in Southeast Asia have become a major concern to the general public as well as governments in the region. This is because aerosols emitted from such fires can cause persistent haze events under certain weather conditions in downwind locations, degrading visibility and causing human health issues. In order to improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal coverage and influence of biomass burning aerosols in Southeast Asia, we have used surface visibility and particulate matter concentration observations, supplemented by decade-long (2003 to 2014) simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a fire aerosol module, driven bymore » high-resolution biomass burning emission inventories. We find that in the past decade, fire aerosols are responsible for nearly all events with very low visibility (< 7 km). Fire aerosols alone are also responsible for a substantial fraction of low-visibility events (visibility  < 10 km) in the major metropolitan areas of Southeast Asia: up to 39 % in Bangkok, 36 % in Kuala Lumpur, and 34 % in Singapore. Biomass burning in mainland Southeast Asia accounts for the largest contribution to total fire-produced PM 2.5 in Bangkok (99 %), while biomass burning in Sumatra is a major contributor to fire-produced PM 2.5 in Kuala Lumpur (50 %) and Singapore (41 %). To examine the general situation across the region, we have further defined and derived a new integrated metric for 50 cities of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN): the haze exposure day (HED), which measures the annual exposure days of these cities to low visibility (< 10 km) caused by particulate matter pollution. It is shown that HEDs have increased steadily in the past decade across cities with both high and low populations. Fire events alone are found to be responsible for up to about half of the total HEDs. Our results suggest that in order to improve the overall air quality in Southeast Asia, mitigation policies targeting both biomass burning and fossil fuel burning sources need to be implemented.« less

Biomass burning aerosols and the low-visibility events in Southeast Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Hsiang-He; Bar-Or, Rotem Z.; Wang, Chien

Fires including peatland burning in Southeast Asia have become a major concern to the general public as well as governments in the region. This is because aerosols emitted from such fires can cause persistent haze events under certain weather conditions in downwind locations, degrading visibility and causing human health issues. In order to improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal coverage and influence of biomass burning aerosols in Southeast Asia, we have used surface visibility and particulate matter concentration observations, supplemented by decade-long (2003 to 2014) simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a fire aerosol module, driven bymore » high-resolution biomass burning emission inventories. We find that in the past decade, fire aerosols are responsible for nearly all events with very low visibility (< 7 km). Fire aerosols alone are also responsible for a substantial fraction of low-visibility events (visibility  < 10 km) in the major metropolitan areas of Southeast Asia: up to 39 % in Bangkok, 36 % in Kuala Lumpur, and 34 % in Singapore. Biomass burning in mainland Southeast Asia accounts for the largest contribution to total fire-produced PM 2.5 in Bangkok (99 %), while biomass burning in Sumatra is a major contributor to fire-produced PM 2.5 in Kuala Lumpur (50 %) and Singapore (41 %). To examine the general situation across the region, we have further defined and derived a new integrated metric for 50 cities of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN): the haze exposure day (HED), which measures the annual exposure days of these cities to low visibility (< 10 km) caused by particulate matter pollution. It is shown that HEDs have increased steadily in the past decade across cities with both high and low populations. Fire events alone are found to be responsible for up to about half of the total HEDs. Our results suggest that in order to improve the overall air quality in Southeast Asia, mitigation policies targeting both biomass burning and fossil fuel burning sources need to be implemented.« less

Aerosols from fires: an examination of the effects on ozone photochemistry in the Western United States.

PubMed

Jiang, Xiaoyan; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Carlton, Annmarie G

2012-11-06

This study presents a first attempt to investigate the roles of fire aerosols in ozone (O(3)) photochemistry using an online coupled meteorology-chemistry model, the Weather Research and Foresting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Four 1-month WRF-Chem simulations for August 2007, with and without fire emissions, were carried out to assess the sensitivity of O(3) predictions to the emissions and subsequent radiative feedbacks associated with large-scale fires in the Western United States (U.S.). Results show that decreases in planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) resulting from the radiative effects of fire aerosols and increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the fires tend to increase modeled O(3) concentrations near the source. Reductions in downward shortwave radiation reaching the surface and surface temperature due to fire aerosols cause decreases in biogenic isoprene emissions and J(NO(2)) photolysis rates, resulting in reductions in O(3) concentrations by as much as 15%. Thus, the results presented in this study imply that considering the radiative effects of fire aerosols may reduce O(3) overestimation by traditional photochemical models that do not consider fire-induced changes in meteorology; implementation of coupled meteorology-chemistry models are required to simulate the atmospheric chemistry impacted by large-scale fires.

Long-term temporal changes in the occurrence of a high forest fire danger in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mäkelä, H. M.; Laapas, M.; Venäläinen, A.

2012-08-01

Climate variation and change influence several ecosystem components including forest fires. To examine long-term temporal variations of forest fire danger, a fire danger day (FDD) model was developed. Using mean temperature and total precipitation of the Finnish wildfire season (June-August), the model describes the climatological preconditions of fire occurrence and gives the number of fire danger days during the same time period. The performance of the model varied between different regions in Finland being best in south and west. In the study period 1908-2011, the year-to-year variation of FDD was large and no significant increasing or decreasing tendencies could be found. Negative slopes of linear regression lines for FDD could be explained by the simultaneous, mostly not significant increases in precipitation. Years with the largest wildfires did not stand out from the FDD time series. This indicates that intra-seasonal variations of FDD enable occurrence of large-scale fires, despite the whole season's fire danger is on an average level. Based on available monthly climate data, it is possible to estimate the general fire conditions of a summer. However, more detailed input data about weather conditions, land use, prevailing forestry conventions and socio-economical factors would be needed to gain more specific information about a season's fire risk.

Deadly Fires Engulfing Madeira

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2016-12-30

... temperatures topping 95 degrees Fahrenheit and very dry weather. The entire island is only 30 miles (48 kilometers) from end to end, ... D.C. The Terra spacecraft is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland. The MISR data were obtained from the ...

Fire and Deforestation Dynamics in South America over the Past 50 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Marle, M.; Field, R. D.; van der Werf, G.

2015-12-01

Fires play an important role in the Earth system and are one of the major sources of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Satellites have been key to understand their spatial and temporal variability in space and time, but the most frequently used satellite datasets start only in 1995. There are still large uncertainties about the frequency and intensity of fires in the pre-satellite time period, especially in regions with active deforestation, which may have changed dramatically in intensity in the past decades influencing fire dynamics. We used two datasets to extend the record of fires and deforestation in the Amazon region back in time: 1) annual forest loss rates starting in 1990 derived from Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD), which is a satellite-based vegetation product that can be used as proxy for forest loss, and 2) horizontal visibility as proxy for fire emissions, reported by weather stations and airports in the Amazon, which started around 1940, and having widespread coverage since 1973. We show that these datasets overlap with fire emission estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) enabling us to estimate fire emissions over the last 50 years. We will discuss how fires have varied over time in this region with globally significant emissions, how droughts have influenced fire activity and deforestation rates, and what the impact is of land-use change caused by fire on emissions in the Amazon region.

Application of wildfire simulation methods to assess wildfire exposure in a Mediterranean fire-prone area (Sardinia, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, M.; Ager, A.; Arca, B.; Finney, M.; Bacciu, V. M.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

2012-12-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of fire spread and behavior are dependent on interactions among climate, topography, vegetation and fire suppression efforts (Pyne et al. 1996; Viegas 2006; Falk et al. 2007). Humans also play a key role in determining frequency and spatial distribution of ignitions (Bar Massada et al, 2011), and thus influence fire regimes as well. The growing incidence of catastrophic wildfires has led to substantial losses for important ecological and human values within many areas of the Mediterranean basin (Moreno et al. 1998; Mouillot et al. 2005; Viegas et al. 2006a; Riaño et al. 2007). The growing fire risk issue has led to many new programs and policies of fuel management and risk mitigation by environmental and fire agencies. However, risk-based methodologies to help identify areas characterized by high potential losses and prioritize fuel management have been lacking for the region. Formal risk assessment requires the joint consideration of likelihood, intensity, and susceptibility, the product of which estimates the chance of a specific loss (Brillinger 2003; Society of Risk Analysis, 2006). Quantifying fire risk therefore requires estimates of a) the probability of a specific location burning at a specific intensity and location, and b) the resulting change in financial or ecological value (Finney 2005; Scott 2006). When large fires are the primary cause of damage, the application of this risk formulation requires modeling fire spread to capture landscape properties that affect burn probability. Recently, the incorporation of large fire spread into risk assessment systems has become feasible with the development of high performance fire simulation systems (Finney et al. 2011) that permit the simulation of hundreds of thousands of fires to generate fine scale maps of burn probability, flame length, and fire size, while considering the combined effects of weather, fuels, and topography (Finney 2002; Andrews et al. 2007; Ager and Finney 2009; Finney et al. 2009; Salis et al. 2012 accepted). In this work, we employed wildfire simulation methods to quantify wildfire exposure to human and ecological values for the island of Sardinia, Italy. The work was focused on the risk and exposure posed by large fires (e.g. 100 - 10,000 ha), and considers historical weather, ignition patterns and fuels. We simulated 100,000 fires using burn periods that replicated the historical size distribution on the Island, and an ignition probability grid derived from historic ignition data. We then examine spatial variation in three exposure components (burn probability, flame length, fire size) among important human and ecological values. The results allowed us to contract exposure among and within the various features examined, and highlighted the importance of human factors in shaping wildfire exposure in Sardinia. The work represents the first application of burn probability modeling in the Mediterranean region, and sets the stage for expanded work in the region to quantify risk from large fires

Warm Dry Weather Conditions Cause of 2016 Fort McMurray Wild Forest Fire and Associated Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Azevedo, S. C.; Singh, R. P.; da Silva, E. A., Sr.

2016-12-01

The climate change is evident from the increasing temperature around the world, day to day life and increasing frequency of natural hazards. The warm and dry conditions are the cause of frequent forest fires around the globe. Forest fires severely affect the air quality and human health. Multi sensor satellites and dense network of ground stations provide information about vegetation health, meteorological, air quality and atmospheric parameters. We have carried out detailed analysis of satellite and ground data of wild forest fire that occurred in May 2016 in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. This wild forest fire destroyed 10 per cent of Fort McMurray's housing and forced more than 90,000 people to evacuate the surrounding areas. Our results show that the warm and dry conditions with low rainfall were the cause of Fort McMurray wild fire. The air quality parameters (particulate matter, CO, ozone, NO2, methane) and greenhouse gases measured from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite show enhanced levels soon after the forest fire. The emissions from the forest fire affected health of population living in surrounding areas up to 300 km radius.

Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirschi, M.; Stoeckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Calanca, P.; Rotach, M. W.; Fischer, A. M.; Duffy, B.; Samietz, J.

2012-02-01

As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980-2009 and 2045-2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045-2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1% on average today to over 60% in the future for the median climate change signal of the multi-model projections), the actual risk will critically depend on the pace of the adaptation of the codling moth with respect to the critical photoperiod. To control this additional generation, an intensification and prolongation of control measures (e.g. insecticides) will be required, implying an increasing risk of pesticide resistances. For fire blight, the projected changes in infection days are less certain due to uncertainties in the leaf wetness approximation and the simulation of the blooming period. Two compensating effects are projected, warmer temperatures favoring infections are balanced by a temperature-induced advancement of the blooming period, leading to no significant change in the number of infection days under future climate conditions for most stations.

Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirschi, M.; Stoeckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Calanca, P.; Rotach, M. W.; Fischer, A. M.; Duffy, B.; Samietz, J.

2011-08-01

As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously not affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology depending on actual weather conditions and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980-2009 and 2045-2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045-2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1 % on average today to over 60 % in the future for the median climate change signal of the multi-model projections), the actual risk will critically depend on the pace of the adaptation of the codling moth with respect to the critical photoperiod. To control this additional generation, an intensification and prolongation of control measures (e.g., insecticides) will be required, implying an increasing risk of pesticide resistances. For fire blight, the projected changes in infection days are less certain due to uncertainties in the leaf wetness approximation and the simulation of the blooming period. Two compensating effects are projected, warmer temperatures favoring infections are balanced by a temperature-induced advancement of the blooming period, leading to no significant change in the number of infection days under future climate conditions for most stations.

Climate adaption and post-fire restoration of a foundational perennial in cold desert: Insights from intraspecific variation in response to weather

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabec, Martha M.; Germino, Matthew; Richardson, Bryce A.

2017-01-01

1.The loss of foundational but fire-intolerant perennials such as sagebrush due to increases in fire size and frequency in semiarid regions has motivated efforts to restore them, often with mixed or even no success. Seeds of sagebrush Artemisia tridentata and related species must be moved considerable distances from seed source to planting sites, but such transfers have not been guided by an understanding of local climate adaptation. Initial seedling establishment and its response to weather are a key demographic bottleneck that likely varies among subspecies and populations of sagebrush. 2.We assessed differences in survival, growth, and physiological responses of sagebrush to weather among eleven seed sources that varied in subspecies, cytotype, and climates-of-origin over 18 months following outplanting. Diploid or polyploid populations of mountain, Wyoming, and basin big sagebrush (A.tridentata ssp. vaseyana, A.tridentata ssp. wyomingensis, and A.tridentata ssp. tridentata, respectively) were planted onto five burned sites that normally support A.t.wyomingensis with some A.t.tridentata. 3.A.t.wyomingensis had the most growth and survival, and tetraploid populations had greater survival and height than diploids. Seasonal timing of mortality varied among the subspecies/cytotypes and was more closely related to minimum temperatures than water deficit. 4.Temperatures required to induce ice formation were up to 6°C more negative in 4n-A.t.tridentata and A.t.wyomingensis than other subspecies/cytotypes, indicating greater freezing avoidance. In contrast, freezing resistance of photosynthesis varied only 1°C among subspecies/cytotypes, being greatest in A.t.wyomingensis and least in the subspecies normally considered most cold-adapted,A.t.vaseyana. A large spectrum of reliance on freezing-avoidance vs. freezing-tolerance was observed and corresponded to differences in post-fire survivorship among subspecies/cytotypes. Differences in water deficit responses among subspecies/cytotypes were not as strong and did not relate to survival patterns. 5.Synthesis and applications. Low temperature responses are a key axis defining climate adaptation in young sagebrush seedlings and vary more with cytotype than with subspecies, which contrasts with the traditional emphases on (i) water limitations to explain establishment in these deserts, and (ii) subspecies in selecting restoration seedings. These important and novel insights on climate adaptation are critical for seed selection and parameterizing seed transfer zones, and were made possible by incorporating weather data with survival statistics. The survival/weather statistics used here could be applied to any restoration planting or seeding to help elucidate factors contributing to success and enable adaptive management.

Fire and deforestation dynamics in Amazonia (1973–2014)

PubMed Central

Field, Robert D.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Estrada de Wagt, Ivan A.; Houghton, Richard A.; Rizzo, Luciana V.; Artaxo, Paulo; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2017-01-01

Abstract Consistent long‐term estimates of fire emissions are important to understand the changing role of fire in the global carbon cycle and to assess the relative importance of humans and climate in shaping fire regimes. However, there is limited information on fire emissions from before the satellite era. We show that in the Amazon region, including the Arc of Deforestation and Bolivia, visibility observations derived from weather stations could explain 61% of the variability in satellite‐based estimates of bottom‐up fire emissions since 1997 and 42% of the variability in satellite‐based estimates of total column carbon monoxide concentrations since 2001. This enabled us to reconstruct the fire history of this region since 1973 when visibility information became available. Our estimates indicate that until 1987 relatively few fires occurred in this region and that fire emissions increased rapidly over the 1990s. We found that this pattern agreed reasonably well with forest loss data sets, indicating that although natural fires may occur here, deforestation and degradation were the main cause of fires. Compared to fire emissions estimates based on Food and Agricultural Organization's Global Forest and Resources Assessment data, our estimates were substantially lower up to the 1990s, after which they were more in line. These visibility‐based fire emissions data set can help constrain dynamic global vegetation models and atmospheric models with a better representation of the complex fire regime in this region. PMID:28286373

Resolving vorticity-driven lateral fire spread using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire numerical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, C. C.; Sharples, J. J.; Evans, J. P.

2014-09-01

Vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VLS) is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep leeward slope in a direction approximately transverse to the background winds. VLS is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and intense pyro-convection. In this study, the WRF-Fire (WRF stands for Weather Research and Forecasting) coupled atmosphere-fire model is used to examine the sensitivity of resolving VLS to both the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, and the fire-to-atmosphere coupling from within the model framework. The atmospheric horizontal and vertical grid spacing are varied between 25 and 90 m, and the fire-to-atmosphere coupling is either enabled or disabled. At high spatial resolutions, the inclusion of fire-to-atmosphere coupling increases the upslope and lateral rate of spread by factors of up to 2.7 and 9.5, respectively. This increase in the upslope and lateral rate of spread diminishes at coarser spatial resolutions, and VLS is not modelled for a horizontal and vertical grid spacing of 90 m. The lateral fire spread is driven by fire whirls formed due to an interaction between the background winds and the vertical circulation generated at the flank of the fire front as part of the pyro-convective updraft. The laterally advancing fire fronts become the dominant contributors to the extreme pyro-convection. The results presented in this study demonstrate that both high spatial resolution and two-way atmosphere-fire coupling are required to model VLS with WRF-Fire.

Carbon loss and greenhouse gas emission from extreme fire events occurred in Sardinia, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Pellizzaro, G.; Arca, B.; Duce, P.; Spano, D.

2011-12-01

It is widely recognized that biomass burning is a significant driver of CO2 cycling and a source of greenhouse gases, aerosol particles, and other chemically reactive atmospheric gases. The large amounts of carbon that fires release into the atmosphere could approach levels of anthropogenic carbon emissions, especially in years of extreme fire activity. CO2 emissions from 2007 forest fires in Greece were in the range of 4.5 Mt, representing about the 4% of the total annual CO2 emissions of that country (http://effis.jrc.it/). Barbosa et al. (2006) reported a similar percentage of fire emissions to total emissions of CO2 in Portugal during the extreme fire seasons of 2003 and 2005. Currently, inventory methods for biomass burning emission use the equation first proposed by Seiler and Crutzen (1980), taking into account the area burned, the amount of biomass burned, and the emission factors associated with each specific chemical species. However, several errors and uncertainties can affect the emission assessment, due to the estimate consistency of the various parameters involved in the equation, including flaming and smoldering combustion periods, appropriate fuel load evaluations and gaseous emission factors for different fuel fractions and fire types. In this context, model approaching can contribute to better appraise fuel consumption and the resultant emissions. In addition, more comprehensive and accurate data inputs would be of valuable help for predicting and quantifying the source and the composition of fire emissions. The purpose of this work is to explore the impacts of extreme fire events occurred in Sardinia Island (Italy) using an integrated approach combining modelling fire emissions, field observations and remotely-sensed data. In order to achieve realistic fire emission estimates, we used the FOFEM model, due to the necessity to use a consistent modeling methodology across source categories, the input required, and its ability to estimate flaming and smoldering emissions. FOFEM input fuel load data were surveyed to represent those combusted, and fuel availability was obtained from supervised classification of remotely-sensed images. Data relative to fire perimeters, fire weather data, and fire behaviour were gathered by the Sardinian Forestry Corps (CFVA). Consumptions and emissions for each fuel types were estimated through FOFEM. Finally, all the data were assembled into a Geographical Information System (GIS) to facilitate manipulation and display of the data. The results showed the crucial role of appropriate fuel, fire, and weather data and maps to attain reasonable simulations of fuel consumption and smoke emissions. Carbon emission estimates are sensitive to pre-fire fuel loads, so the method used to establish initial fuel conditions is crucial. The FOFEM outputs and the derived smoke emission maps are useful for several applications including emissions inventories, air quality management plans, and emission source models coupled with dispersion models and decision support systems.

WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

2016-04-01

Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The year 2010 was characterized by the smallest number of wildfires and burnt area whereas 2012 - by the biggest number of fires and the largest area of conflagration. The data about time, localization, scale and causes of individual wildfire occurrence in given years are taken from the National Forest Fire Information System (KSIPL), administered by Forest Fire Protection Department of Polish Forest Research Institute. The database is a part of European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Basing on this data and on the WRF-based fire risk modelling we intend to achieve the second goal of the study, which is the evaluation of the forecasted fire risk with an occurrence of wildfires. Special attention is paid here to the number, time and the spatial distribution of wildfires occurred in cases of low-level predicted fire risk. Results obtained reveals the effectiveness of the new forecasting method. The outcome of our investigation allows to draw a conclusion that some adjustments are possible to improve the efficiency on the fire-risk estimation method.

Evaluation of fire weather forecasts using PM2.5 sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balachandran, Sivaraman; Baumann, Karsten; Pachon, Jorge E.; Mulholland, James A.; Russell, Armistead G.

2017-01-01

Fire weather forecasts are used by land and wildlife managers to determine when meteorological and fuel conditions are suitable to conduct prescribed burning. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of ambient PM2.5 to various fire and meteorological variables in a spatial setting that is typical for the southeastern US, where prescribed fires are the single largest source of fine particulate matter. We use the method of principle components regression to estimate sensitivity of PM2.5, measured at a monitoring site in Jacksonville, NC (JVL), to fire data and observed and forecast meteorological variables. Fire data were gathered from prescribed fire activity used for ecological management at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, extending 10-50 km south from the PM2.5 monitor. Principal components analysis (PCA) was run on 10 data sets that included acres of prescribed burning activity (PB) along with meteorological forecast data alone or in combination with observations. For each data set, observed PM2.5 (unitless) was regressed against PCA scores from the first seven principal components (explaining at least 80% of total variance). PM2.5 showed significant sensitivity to PB: 3.6 ± 2.2 μg m-3 per 1000 acres burned at the investigated distance scale of ∼10-50 km. Applying this sensitivity to the available activity data revealed a prescribed burning source contribution to measured PM2.5 of up to 25% on a given day. PM2.5 showed a positive sensitivity to relative humidity and temperature, and was also sensitive to wind direction, indicating the capture of more regional aerosol processing and transport effects. As expected, PM2.5 had a negative sensitivity to dispersive variables but only showed a statistically significant negative sensitivity to ventilation rate, highlighting the importance of this parameter to fire managers. A positive sensitivity to forecast precipitation was found, consistent with the practice of conducting prescribed burning on days when rain can naturally extinguish fires. Perhaps most importantly for land managers, our analysis suggests that instead of relying on the forecasts from a day before, prescribed burning decisions should be based on the forecasts released the morning of the burn when possible, since these data were more stable and yielded more statistically robust results.

Uncertainty in Wildfire Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finney, M.; Cohen, J. D.

2013-12-01

The challenge of predicting or modeling fire behavior is well recognized by scientists and managers who attempt predictions of fire spread rate or growth. At the scale of the spreading fire, the uncertainty in winds, moisture, fuel structure, and fire location make accurate predictions difficult, and the non-linear response of fire spread to these conditions means that average behavior is poorly represented by average environmental parameters. Even more difficult are estimations of threshold behaviors (e.g. spread/no-spread, crown fire initiation, ember generation and spotting) because the fire responds as a step-function to small changes in one or more environmental variables, translating to dynamical feedbacks and unpredictability. Recent research shows that ignition of fuel particles, itself a threshold phenomenon, depends on flame contact which is absolutely not steady or uniform. Recent studies of flame structure in both spreading and stationary fires reveals that much of the non-steadiness of the flames as they contact fuel particles results from buoyant instabilities that produce quasi-periodic flame structures. With fuel particle ignition produced by time-varying heating and short-range flame contact, future improvements in fire behavior modeling will likely require statistical approaches to deal with the uncertainty at all scales, including the level of heat transfer, the fuel arrangement, and weather.

Fire spread estimation on forest wildfire using ensemble kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syarifah, Wardatus; Apriliani, Erna

2018-04-01

Wildfire is one of the most frequent disasters in the world, for example forest wildfire, causing population of forest decrease. Forest wildfire, whether naturally occurring or prescribed, are potential risks for ecosystems and human settlements. These risks can be managed by monitoring the weather, prescribing fires to limit available fuel, and creating firebreaks. With computer simulations we can predict and explore how fires may spread. The model of fire spread on forest wildfire was established to determine the fire properties. The fire spread model is prepared based on the equation of the diffusion reaction model. There are many methods to estimate the spread of fire. The Kalman Filter Ensemble Method is a modified estimation method of the Kalman Filter algorithm that can be used to estimate linear and non-linear system models. In this research will apply Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method to estimate the spread of fire on forest wildfire. Before applying the EnKF method, the fire spread model will be discreted using finite difference method. At the end, the analysis obtained illustrated by numerical simulation using software. The simulation results show that the Ensemble Kalman Filter method is closer to the system model when the ensemble value is greater, while the covariance value of the system model and the smaller the measurement.

Introduction to fire danger rating and remote sensing - Will remote sensing enhance wildland fire danger prediction?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allgöwer, Britta; Carlson, J.D.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Chuvieco, Emilio

2003-01-01

While ‘Fire Danger’ per se cannot be measured, the physical properties of the biotic and abiotic world that relate to fire occurrence and fire behavior can. Today, increasingly sophisticated Remote Sensing methods are being developed to more accurately detect fuel properties such as species composition (fuel types), vegetation structure or plant water content - to name a few. Based on meteorological input data and physical, semi-physical or empirical model calculations, Wildland Fire Danger Rating Systems provide ‘indirect values’ - numerical indices - at different temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) denoting the physical conditions that may lead to fire ignition and support fire propagation. The results can be expressed as fire danger levels, ranging from ‘low’ to ‘very high’, and are commonly used in operational wildland fire management (e.g., the Canadian Fire Weather Index [FWI] System, the Russian Nesterov Index, or the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System [NFDRS]). Today, fire danger levels are often turned into broad scale maps with the help of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) showing the areas with the different fire danger levels, and are distributed via the World Wide Web.In this chapter we will outline some key issues dealing with Remote Sensing and GIS techniques that are covered in the following chapters, and elaborate how the Fire Danger Rating concepts could be integrated into a framework that enables comprehensive and sustainable wildland fire risk assessment. To do so, we will first raise some general thoughts about wildland fires and suggest how to approach this extremely complex phenomenon. Second, we will outline a possible fire risk analysis framework and third we will give a short overview on existing Fire Danger Rating Systems and the principles behind them.

Data Assimilation of SMAP Observations and the Impact on Weather Forecasts and Heat Stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan; Blankenship, Clay; Crosson, William; White, Khristopher

2014-01-01

SPoRT produces real-time LIS soil moisture products for situational awareness and local numerical weather prediction over CONUS, Mesoamerica, and East Africa ?Currently interact/collaborate with operational partners on evaluation of soil moisture products ?Drought/fire ?Extreme heat ?Convective initiation ?Flood and water borne diseases ?Initial efforts to assimilate L2 soil moisture observations from SMOS (as a precursor for SMAP) have been successful ?Active/passive blended product from SMAP will be assimilated similarly and higher spatial resolution should improve on local-scale processes

Barrier island forest ecosystem: role of meteorologic nutrient inputs.

PubMed

Art, H W; Bormann, F H; Voigt, G K; Woodwell, G M

1974-04-05

The Sunken Forest, located on Fire Island, a barrier island in the Atlantic Ocean off Long Island, New York, is an ecosystem in which most of the basic cation input is in the form of salt spray. This meteorologic input is sufficient to compensate for the lack of certain nutrients in the highly weathered sandy soils. In other ecosystems these nutrients are generally supplied by weathering of soil particles. The compensatory effect of meteorologic input allows for primary production rates in the Sunken Forest similar to those of inland temperate forests.