Social-Emotional Effects of Early Childhood Education Programs in Tulsa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gormley, William T., Jr.; Phillips, Deborah A.; Newmark, Katie; Welti, Kate; Adelstein, Shirley

2011-01-01

This article assesses the effects of Tulsa, Oklahoma's early childhood education programs on social-emotional outcomes, examining teacher ratings of children's behavior from the Adjustment Scales for Preschool Intervention and a measure of attentiveness using fixed effects regressions with propensity score matching. The sample includes 2,832…

Estimating the Counterfactual Impact of Conservation Programs on Land Cover Outcomes: The Role of Matching and Panel Regression Techniques

PubMed Central

Jones, Kelly W.; Lewis, David J.

2015-01-01

Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented—from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)—to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing ‘matching’ to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods—an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators—due to the presence of unobservable bias—that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case illustrates that if time-invariant unobservables are not present, matching combined with differences in means or cross-sectional regression leads to similar estimates of program effectiveness as matching combined with fixed effects panel regression. These results highlight the importance of considering observable and unobservable forms of bias and the methodological assumptions across estimators when designing an impact evaluation of conservation programs. PMID:26501964

Estimating the Counterfactual Impact of Conservation Programs on Land Cover Outcomes: The Role of Matching and Panel Regression Techniques.

PubMed

Jones, Kelly W; Lewis, David J

2015-01-01

Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented--from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)--to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing 'matching' to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods--an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators--due to the presence of unobservable bias--that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case illustrates that if time-invariant unobservables are not present, matching combined with differences in means or cross-sectional regression leads to similar estimates of program effectiveness as matching combined with fixed effects panel regression. These results highlight the importance of considering observable and unobservable forms of bias and the methodological assumptions across estimators when designing an impact evaluation of conservation programs.

Robust, Adaptive Functional Regression in Functional Mixed Model Framework.

PubMed

Zhu, Hongxiao; Brown, Philip J; Morris, Jeffrey S

2011-09-01

Functional data are increasingly encountered in scientific studies, and their high dimensionality and complexity lead to many analytical challenges. Various methods for functional data analysis have been developed, including functional response regression methods that involve regression of a functional response on univariate/multivariate predictors with nonparametrically represented functional coefficients. In existing methods, however, the functional regression can be sensitive to outlying curves and outlying regions of curves, so is not robust. In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian method, robust functional mixed models (R-FMM), for performing robust functional regression within the general functional mixed model framework, which includes multiple continuous or categorical predictors and random effect functions accommodating potential between-function correlation induced by the experimental design. The underlying model involves a hierarchical scale mixture model for the fixed effects, random effect and residual error functions. These modeling assumptions across curves result in robust nonparametric estimators of the fixed and random effect functions which down-weight outlying curves and regions of curves, and produce statistics that can be used to flag global and local outliers. These assumptions also lead to distributions across wavelet coefficients that have outstanding sparsity and adaptive shrinkage properties, with great flexibility for the data to determine the sparsity and the heaviness of the tails. Together with the down-weighting of outliers, these within-curve properties lead to fixed and random effect function estimates that appear in our simulations to be remarkably adaptive in their ability to remove spurious features yet retain true features of the functions. We have developed general code to implement this fully Bayesian method that is automatic, requiring the user to only provide the functional data and design matrices. It is efficient enough to handle large data sets, and yields posterior samples of all model parameters that can be used to perform desired Bayesian estimation and inference. Although we present details for a specific implementation of the R-FMM using specific distributional choices in the hierarchical model, 1D functions, and wavelet transforms, the method can be applied more generally using other heavy-tailed distributions, higher dimensional functions (e.g. images), and using other invertible transformations as alternatives to wavelets.

Robust, Adaptive Functional Regression in Functional Mixed Model Framework

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hongxiao; Brown, Philip J.; Morris, Jeffrey S.

2012-01-01

Functional data are increasingly encountered in scientific studies, and their high dimensionality and complexity lead to many analytical challenges. Various methods for functional data analysis have been developed, including functional response regression methods that involve regression of a functional response on univariate/multivariate predictors with nonparametrically represented functional coefficients. In existing methods, however, the functional regression can be sensitive to outlying curves and outlying regions of curves, so is not robust. In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian method, robust functional mixed models (R-FMM), for performing robust functional regression within the general functional mixed model framework, which includes multiple continuous or categorical predictors and random effect functions accommodating potential between-function correlation induced by the experimental design. The underlying model involves a hierarchical scale mixture model for the fixed effects, random effect and residual error functions. These modeling assumptions across curves result in robust nonparametric estimators of the fixed and random effect functions which down-weight outlying curves and regions of curves, and produce statistics that can be used to flag global and local outliers. These assumptions also lead to distributions across wavelet coefficients that have outstanding sparsity and adaptive shrinkage properties, with great flexibility for the data to determine the sparsity and the heaviness of the tails. Together with the down-weighting of outliers, these within-curve properties lead to fixed and random effect function estimates that appear in our simulations to be remarkably adaptive in their ability to remove spurious features yet retain true features of the functions. We have developed general code to implement this fully Bayesian method that is automatic, requiring the user to only provide the functional data and design matrices. It is efficient enough to handle large data sets, and yields posterior samples of all model parameters that can be used to perform desired Bayesian estimation and inference. Although we present details for a specific implementation of the R-FMM using specific distributional choices in the hierarchical model, 1D functions, and wavelet transforms, the method can be applied more generally using other heavy-tailed distributions, higher dimensional functions (e.g. images), and using other invertible transformations as alternatives to wavelets. PMID:22308015

An Overview of Longitudinal Data Analysis Methods for Neurological Research

PubMed Central

Locascio, Joseph J.; Atri, Alireza

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to provide a concise, broad and readily accessible overview of longitudinal data analysis methods, aimed to be a practical guide for clinical investigators in neurology. In general, we advise that older, traditional methods, including (1) simple regression of the dependent variable on a time measure, (2) analyzing a single summary subject level number that indexes changes for each subject and (3) a general linear model approach with a fixed-subject effect, should be reserved for quick, simple or preliminary analyses. We advocate the general use of mixed-random and fixed-effect regression models for analyses of most longitudinal clinical studies. Under restrictive situations or to provide validation, we recommend: (1) repeated-measure analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), (2) ANCOVA for two time points, (3) generalized estimating equations and (4) latent growth curve/structural equation models. PMID:22203825

Gene-Based Association Analysis for Censored Traits Via Fixed Effect Functional Regressions.

PubMed

Fan, Ruzong; Wang, Yifan; Yan, Qi; Ding, Ying; Weeks, Daniel E; Lu, Zhaohui; Ren, Haobo; Cook, Richard J; Xiong, Momiao; Swaroop, Anand; Chew, Emily Y; Chen, Wei

2016-02-01

Genetic studies of survival outcomes have been proposed and conducted recently, but statistical methods for identifying genetic variants that affect disease progression are rarely developed. Motivated by our ongoing real studies, here we develop Cox proportional hazard models using functional regression (FR) to perform gene-based association analysis of survival traits while adjusting for covariates. The proposed Cox models are fixed effect models where the genetic effects of multiple genetic variants are assumed to be fixed. We introduce likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistics to test for associations between the survival traits and multiple genetic variants in a genetic region. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed Cox RF LRT statistics have well-controlled type I error rates. To evaluate power, we compare the Cox FR LRT with the previously developed burden test (BT) in a Cox model and sequence kernel association test (SKAT), which is based on mixed effect Cox models. The Cox FR LRT statistics have higher power than or similar power as Cox SKAT LRT except when 50%/50% causal variants had negative/positive effects and all causal variants are rare. In addition, the Cox FR LRT statistics have higher power than Cox BT LRT. The models and related test statistics can be useful in the whole genome and whole exome association studies. An age-related macular degeneration dataset was analyzed as an example. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Gene-based Association Analysis for Censored Traits Via Fixed Effect Functional Regressions

PubMed Central

Fan, Ruzong; Wang, Yifan; Yan, Qi; Ding, Ying; Weeks, Daniel E.; Lu, Zhaohui; Ren, Haobo; Cook, Richard J; Xiong, Momiao; Swaroop, Anand; Chew, Emily Y.; Chen, Wei

2015-01-01

Summary Genetic studies of survival outcomes have been proposed and conducted recently, but statistical methods for identifying genetic variants that affect disease progression are rarely developed. Motivated by our ongoing real studies, we develop here Cox proportional hazard models using functional regression (FR) to perform gene-based association analysis of survival traits while adjusting for covariates. The proposed Cox models are fixed effect models where the genetic effects of multiple genetic variants are assumed to be fixed. We introduce likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistics to test for associations between the survival traits and multiple genetic variants in a genetic region. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed Cox RF LRT statistics have well-controlled type I error rates. To evaluate power, we compare the Cox FR LRT with the previously developed burden test (BT) in a Cox model and sequence kernel association test (SKAT) which is based on mixed effect Cox models. The Cox FR LRT statistics have higher power than or similar power as Cox SKAT LRT except when 50%/50% causal variants had negative/positive effects and all causal variants are rare. In addition, the Cox FR LRT statistics have higher power than Cox BT LRT. The models and related test statistics can be useful in the whole genome and whole exome association studies. An age-related macular degeneration dataset was analyzed as an example. PMID:26782979

Associations among job demands and resources, work engagement, and psychological distress: fixed-effects model analysis in Japan

PubMed Central

Oshio, Takashi; Inoue, Akiomi

2018-01-01

Objectives: We examined the associations among job demands and resources, work engagement, and psychological distress, adjusted for time-invariant individual attributes. Methods: We used data from a Japanese occupational cohort survey, which included 18,702 observations of 7,843 individuals. We investigated how work engagement, measured by the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, was associated with key aspects of job demands and resources, using fixed-effects regression models. We further estimated the fixed-effects models to assess how work engagement moderated the association between each job characteristic and psychological distress as measured by Kessler 6 scores. Results: The fixed-effects models showed that work engagement was positively associated with job resources, as did pooled cross-sectional and prospective cohort models. Specifically, the standardized regression coefficients (β) were 0.148 and 0.120 for extrinsic reward and decision latitude, respectively, compared to -0.159 and 0.020 for role ambiguity and workload and time pressure, respectively (p < 0.001 for all associations). Work engagement modestly moderated the associations of psychological distress with workload and time pressure and extrinsic reward; a one-standard deviation increase in work engagement moderated their associations by 19.2% (p < 0.001) and 11.3% (p = 0.034), respectively. Conclusions: Work engagement was associated with job demands and resources, which is in line with the theoretical prediction of the job demands-resources model, even after controlling for time-invariant individual attributes. Work engagement moderated the association between selected aspects of job demands and resources and psychological distress. PMID:29563368

Education and Entrepreneurship in Canada: Evidence from (Repeated) Cross-Sectional Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Masakure, Oliver

2015-01-01

This paper estimates the causal effect of education on entrepreneurship choice in Canada taking into account the endogeneity of education. The data come from the General and Social Surveys (2000-2009). We consider the effect of two extreme education levels: university and some/no education. Regressions are based on fixed effects with two-stage…

The Oklahoma's Promise Program: A National Model to Promote College Persistence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mendoza, Pilar; Mendez, Jesse P.

2013-01-01

Using a multi-method approach involving fixed effects and logistic regressions, this study examined the effect of the Oklahoma's Promise Program on student persistence in relation to the Pell and Stafford federal programs and according to socio-economic characteristics and class level. The Oklahoma's Promise is a hybrid state program that pays…

An Analysis of San Diego's Housing Market Using a Geographically Weighted Regression Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, Christina P.

San Diego County real estate transaction data was evaluated with a set of linear models calibrated by ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The goal of the analysis was to determine whether the spatial effects assumed to be in the data are best studied globally with no spatial terms, globally with a fixed effects submarket variable, or locally with GWR. 18,050 single-family residential sales which closed in the six months between April 2014 and September 2014 were used in the analysis. Diagnostic statistics including AICc, R2, Global Moran's I, and visual inspection of diagnostic plots and maps indicate superior model performance by GWR as compared to both global regressions.

Creep analysis of silicone for podiatry applications.

PubMed

Janeiro-Arocas, Julia; Tarrío-Saavedra, Javier; López-Beceiro, Jorge; Naya, Salvador; López-Canosa, Adrián; Heredia-García, Nicolás; Artiaga, Ramón

2016-10-01

This work shows an effective methodology to characterize the creep-recovery behavior of silicones before their application in podiatry. The aim is to characterize, model and compare the creep-recovery properties of different types of silicone used in podiatry orthotics. Creep-recovery phenomena of silicones used in podiatry orthotics is characterized by dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA). Silicones provided by Herbitas are compared by observing their viscoelastic properties by Functional Data Analysis (FDA) and nonlinear regression. The relationship between strain and time is modeled by fixed and mixed effects nonlinear regression to compare easily and intuitively podiatry silicones. Functional ANOVA and Kohlrausch-Willians-Watts (KWW) model with fixed and mixed effects allows us to compare different silicones observing the values of fitting parameters and their physical meaning. The differences between silicones are related to the variations of breadth of creep-recovery time distribution and instantaneous deformation-permanent strain. Nevertheless, the mean creep-relaxation time is the same for all the studied silicones. Silicones used in palliative orthoses have higher instantaneous deformation-permanent strain and narrower creep-recovery distribution. The proposed methodology based on DMA, FDA and nonlinear regression is an useful tool to characterize and choose the proper silicone for each podiatry application according to their viscoelastic properties. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic analysis of groups of mid-infrared predicted fatty acids in milk.

PubMed

Narayana, S G; Schenkel, F S; Fleming, A; Koeck, A; Malchiodi, F; Jamrozik, J; Johnston, J; Sargolzaei, M; Miglior, F

2017-06-01

The objective of this study was to investigate genetic variability of mid-infrared predicted fatty acid groups in Canadian Holstein cattle. Genetic parameters were estimated for 5 groups of fatty acids: short-chain (4 to 10 carbons), medium-chain (11 to 16 carbons), long-chain (17 to 22 carbons), saturated, and unsaturated fatty acids. The data set included 49,127 test-day records from 10,029 first-lactation Holstein cows in 810 herds. The random regression animal test-day model included days in milk, herd-test date, and age-season of calving (polynomial regression) as fixed effects, herd-year of calving, animal additive genetic effect, and permanent environment effects as random polynomial regressions, and random residual effect. Legendre polynomials of the third degree were selected for the fixed regression for age-season of calving effect and Legendre polynomials of the fourth degree were selected for the random regression for animal additive genetic, permanent environment, and herd-year effect. The average daily heritability over the lactation for the medium-chain fatty acid group (0.32) was higher than for the short-chain (0.24) and long-chain (0.23) fatty acid groups. The average daily heritability for the saturated fatty acid group (0.33) was greater than for the unsaturated fatty acid group (0.21). Estimated average daily genetic correlations were positive among all fatty acid groups and ranged from moderate to high (0.63-0.96). The genetic correlations illustrated similarities and differences in their origin and the makeup of the groupings based on chain length and saturation. These results provide evidence for the existence of genetic variation in mid-infrared predicted fatty acid groups, and the possibility of improving milk fatty acid profile through genetic selection in Canadian dairy cattle. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adolescent Work and Alcohol Use Revisited: Variations by Family Structure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rocheleau, Gregory C.; Swisher, Raymond R.

2012-01-01

Previous research finds adolescent work hours to be associated with increased alcohol use. Most studies, however, fail to account for possible selection effects that lead youth to both work and substance use. Using data from the first two waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N = 12,620), a fixed effects regression method…

Unemployment and psychosocial outcomes to age 30: A fixed-effects regression analysis.

PubMed

Fergusson, David M; McLeod, Geraldine F; Horwood, L John

2014-08-01

We aimed to examine the associations between exposure to unemployment and psychosocial outcomes over the period from 16 to 30 years, using data from a well-studied birth cohort. Data were collected over the course of the Christchurch Health and Development Study, a longitudinal study of a birth cohort of 1265 children, born in Christchurch in 1977, who have been studied to age 30. Assessments of unemployment and psychosocial outcomes (mental health, substance abuse/dependence, criminal offending, adverse life events and life satisfaction) were obtained at ages 18, 21, 25 and 30. Prior to adjustment, an increasing duration of unemployment was associated with significant increases in the risk of all psychosocial outcomes. These associations were adjusted for confounding using conditional, fixed-effects regression techniques. The analyses showed significant (p < 0.05) or marginally significant (p < 0.10) associations between the duration of unemployment and major depression (p = 0.05), alcohol abuse/dependence (p = 0.043), illicit substance abuse/dependence (p = 0.017), property/violent offending (p < 0.001), arrests/convictions (p = 0.052), serious financial problems (p = 0.007) and life satisfaction (p = 0.092). To test for reverse causality, the fixed-effects regression models were extended to include lagged, time-dynamic variables representing the respondent's psychosocial burden prior to the experience of unemployment. The findings suggested that the association between unemployment and psychosocial outcomes was likely to involve a causal process in which unemployment led to increased risks of adverse psychosocial outcomes. Effect sizes were estimated using attributable risk; exposure to unemployment accounted for between 4.2 and 14.0% (median 10.8%) of the risk of experiencing the significant psychosocial outcomes. The findings of this study suggest that exposure to unemployment had small but pervasive effects on psychosocial adjustment in adolescence and young adulthood. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2014.

Estimation of genetic effects in the presence of multicollinearity in multibreed beef cattle evaluation.

PubMed

Roso, V M; Schenkel, F S; Miller, S P; Schaeffer, L R

2005-08-01

Breed additive, dominance, and epistatic loss effects are of concern in the genetic evaluation of a multibreed population. Multiple regression equations used for fitting these effects may show a high degree of multicollinearity among predictor variables. Typically, when strong linear relationships exist, the regression coefficients have large SE and are sensitive to changes in the data file and to the addition or deletion of variables in the model. Generalized ridge regression methods were applied to obtain stable estimates of direct and maternal breed additive, dominance, and epistatic loss effects in the presence of multicollinearity among predictor variables. Preweaning weight gains of beef calves in Ontario, Canada, from 1986 to 1999 were analyzed. The genetic model included fixed direct and maternal breed additive, dominance, and epistatic loss effects, fixed environmental effects of age of the calf, contemporary group, and age of the dam x sex of the calf, random additive direct and maternal genetic effects, and random maternal permanent environment effect. The degree and the nature of the multicollinearity were identified and ridge regression methods were used as an alternative to ordinary least squares (LS). Ridge parameters were obtained using two different objective methods: 1) generalized ridge estimator of Hoerl and Kennard (R1); and 2) bootstrap in combination with cross-validation (R2). Both ridge regression methods outperformed the LS estimator with respect to mean squared error of predictions (MSEP) and variance inflation factors (VIF) computed over 100 bootstrap samples. The MSEP of R1 and R2 were similar, and they were 3% less than the MSEP of LS. The average VIF of LS, R1, and R2 were equal to 26.81, 6.10, and 4.18, respectively. Ridge regression methods were particularly effective in decreasing the multicollinearity involving predictor variables of breed additive effects. Because of a high degree of confounding between estimates of maternal dominance and direct epistatic loss effects, it was not possible to compare the relative importance of these effects with a high level of confidence. The inclusion of epistatic loss effects in the additive-dominance model did not cause noticeable reranking of sires, dams, and calves based on across-breed EBV. More precise estimates of breed effects as a result of this study may result in more stable across-breed estimated breeding values over the years.

Learning by Doing, Scale Effects, or Neither? Cardiac Surgeons after Residency

PubMed Central

Huesch, Marco D

2009-01-01

Objective To examine impacts of operating surgeon scale and cumulative experience on postoperative outcomes for patients treated with coronary artery bypass grafts (CABG) by “new” surgeons. Pooled linear, fixed effects panel, and instrumented regressions were estimated. Data Sources The administrative data included comorbidities, procedures, and outcomes for 19,978 adult CABG patients in Florida in 1998–2006, and public data on 57 cardiac surgeons who completed residencies after 1997. Study Design Analysis was at the patient level. Controls for risk, hospital scale and scope, and operating surgeon characteristics were made. Patient choice model instruments were constructed. Experience was estimated allowing for “forgetting” effects. Principal Findings Panel regressions with surgeon fixed effects showed neither surgeon scale nor cumulative volumes significantly impacted mortality nor consistently impacted morbidity. Estimation of “forgetting” suggests that almost all prior experience is depreciated from one quarter to the next. Instruments were strong, but exogeneity of volume was not rejected. Conclusions In postresidency surgeons, no persuasive evidence is found for learning by doing, scale, or selection effects. More research is needed to support the cautious view that, for these “new” cardiac surgeons, patient volume could be redistributed based on realized outcomes without disruption. PMID:19732169

Comparison of random regression models with Legendre polynomials and linear splines for production traits and somatic cell score of Canadian Holstein cows.

PubMed

Bohmanova, J; Miglior, F; Jamrozik, J; Misztal, I; Sullivan, P G

2008-09-01

A random regression model with both random and fixed regressions fitted by Legendre polynomials of order 4 was compared with 3 alternative models fitting linear splines with 4, 5, or 6 knots. The effects common for all models were a herd-test-date effect, fixed regressions on days in milk (DIM) nested within region-age-season of calving class, and random regressions for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. Data were test-day milk, fat and protein yields, and SCS recorded from 5 to 365 DIM during the first 3 lactations of Canadian Holstein cows. A random sample of 50 herds consisting of 96,756 test-day records was generated to estimate variance components within a Bayesian framework via Gibbs sampling. Two sets of genetic evaluations were subsequently carried out to investigate performance of the 4 models. Models were compared by graphical inspection of variance functions, goodness of fit, error of prediction of breeding values, and stability of estimated breeding values. Models with splines gave lower estimates of variances at extremes of lactations than the model with Legendre polynomials. Differences among models in goodness of fit measured by percentages of squared bias, correlations between predicted and observed records, and residual variances were small. The deviance information criterion favored the spline model with 6 knots. Smaller error of prediction and higher stability of estimated breeding values were achieved by using spline models with 5 and 6 knots compared with the model with Legendre polynomials. In general, the spline model with 6 knots had the best overall performance based upon the considered model comparison criteria.

Genetic analyses of stillbirth in relation to litter size using random regression models.

PubMed

Chen, C Y; Misztal, I; Tsuruta, S; Herring, W O; Holl, J; Culbertson, M

2010-12-01

Estimates of genetic parameters for number of stillborns (NSB) in relation to litter size (LS) were obtained with random regression models (RRM). Data were collected from 4 purebred Duroc nucleus farms between 2004 and 2008. Two data sets with 6,575 litters for the first parity (P1) and 6,259 litters for the second to fifth parity (P2-5) with a total of 8,217 and 5,066 animals in the pedigree were analyzed separately. Number of stillborns was studied as a trait on sow level. Fixed effects were contemporary groups (farm-year-season) and fixed cubic regression coefficients on LS with Legendre polynomials. Models for P2-5 included the fixed effect of parity. Random effects were additive genetic effects for both data sets with permanent environmental effects included for P2-5. Random effects modeled with Legendre polynomials (RRM-L), linear splines (RRM-S), and degree 0 B-splines (RRM-BS) with regressions on LS were used. For P1, the order of polynomial, the number of knots, and the number of intervals used for respective models were quadratic, 3, and 3, respectively. For P2-5, the same parameters were linear, 2, and 2, respectively. Heterogeneous residual variances were considered in the models. For P1, estimates of heritability were 12 to 15%, 5 to 6%, and 6 to 7% in LS 5, 9, and 13, respectively. For P2-5, estimates were 15 to 17%, 4 to 5%, and 4 to 6% in LS 6, 9, and 12, respectively. For P1, average estimates of genetic correlations between LS 5 to 9, 5 to 13, and 9 to 13 were 0.53, -0.29, and 0.65, respectively. For P2-5, same estimates averaged for RRM-L and RRM-S were 0.75, -0.21, and 0.50, respectively. For RRM-BS with 2 intervals, the correlation was 0.66 between LS 5 to 7 and 8 to 13. Parameters obtained by 3 RRM revealed the nonlinear relationship between additive genetic effect of NSB and the environmental deviation of LS. The negative correlations between the 2 extreme LS might possibly indicate different genetic bases on incidence of stillbirth.

The effect of hospital mergers on long-term sickness absence among hospital employees: a fixed effects multivariate regression analysis using panel data.

PubMed

Kjekshus, Lars Erik; Bernstrøm, Vilde Hoff; Dahl, Espen; Lorentzen, Thomas

2014-02-03

Hospitals are merging to become more cost-effective. Mergers are often complex and difficult processes with variable outcomes. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of mergers on long-term sickness absence among hospital employees. Long-term sickness absence was analyzed among hospital employees (N = 107 209) in 57 hospitals involved in 23 mergers in Norway between 2000 and 2009. Variation in long-term sickness absence was explained through a fixed effects multivariate regression analysis using panel data with years-since-merger as the independent variable. We found a significant but modest effect of mergers on long-term sickness absence in the year of the merger, and in years 2, 3 and 4; analyzed by gender there was a significant effect for women, also for these years, but only in year 4 for men. However, men are less represented among the hospital workforce; this could explain the lack of significance. Mergers has a significant effect on employee health that should be taken into consideration when deciding to merge hospitals. This study illustrates the importance of analyzing the effects of mergers over several years and the need for more detailed analyses of merger processes and of the changes that may occur as a result of such mergers.

The Impact of Life Events on Job Satisfaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Georgellis, Yannis; Lange, Thomas; Tabvuma, Vurain

2012-01-01

Employing fixed effects regression techniques on longitudinal data, we investigate how life events affect employees' job satisfaction. Unlike previous work-life research, exploring mostly contemporaneous correlations, we look for evidence of adaptation in the years following major life events. We find evidence of adaptation following the first…

Evaluation of Denoising Strategies to Address Motion-Correlated Artifacts in Resting-State Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data from the Human Connectome Project

PubMed Central

Kandala, Sridhar; Nolan, Dan; Laumann, Timothy O.; Power, Jonathan D.; Adeyemo, Babatunde; Harms, Michael P.; Petersen, Steven E.; Barch, Deanna M.

2016-01-01

Abstract Like all resting-state functional connectivity data, the data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) are adversely affected by structured noise artifacts arising from head motion and physiological processes. Functional connectivity estimates (Pearson's correlation coefficients) were inflated for high-motion time points and for high-motion participants. This inflation occurred across the brain, suggesting the presence of globally distributed artifacts. The degree of inflation was further increased for connections between nearby regions compared with distant regions, suggesting the presence of distance-dependent spatially specific artifacts. We evaluated several denoising methods: censoring high-motion time points, motion regression, the FMRIB independent component analysis-based X-noiseifier (FIX), and mean grayordinate time series regression (MGTR; as a proxy for global signal regression). The results suggest that FIX denoising reduced both types of artifacts, but left substantial global artifacts behind. MGTR significantly reduced global artifacts, but left substantial spatially specific artifacts behind. Censoring high-motion time points resulted in a small reduction of distance-dependent and global artifacts, eliminating neither type. All denoising strategies left differences between high- and low-motion participants, but only MGTR substantially reduced those differences. Ultimately, functional connectivity estimates from HCP data showed spatially specific and globally distributed artifacts, and the most effective approach to address both types of motion-correlated artifacts was a combination of FIX and MGTR. PMID:27571276

Evaluation of Invisalign treatment effectiveness and efficiency compared with conventional fixed appliances using the Peer Assessment Rating index.

PubMed

Gu, Jiafeng; Tang, Jack Shengyu; Skulski, Brennan; Fields, Henry W; Beck, F Michael; Firestone, Allen R; Kim, Do-Gyoon; Deguchi, Toru

2017-02-01

The purpose of this retrospective case-control study was to compare the treatment effectiveness and efficiency of the Invisalign system with conventional fixed appliances in treating orthodontic patients with mild to moderate malocclusion in a graduate orthodontic clinic. Using the peer assessment rating (PAR) index, we evaluated pretreatment and posttreatment records of 48 Invisalign patients and 48 fixed appliances patients. The 2 groups of patients were controlled for general characteristics and initial severity of malocclusion. We analyzed treatment outcome, duration, and improvement between the Invisalign and fixed appliances groups. The average pretreatment PAR scores (United Kingdom weighting) were 20.81 for Invisalign and 22.79 for fixed appliances (P = 1.0000). Posttreatment weighted PAR scores between Invisalign and fixed appliances were not statistically different (P = 0.7420). On average, the Invisalign patients finished 5.7 months faster than did those with fixed appliances (P = 0.0040). The weighted PAR score reduction with treatment was not statistically different between the Invisalign and fixed appliances groups (P = 0.4573). All patients in both groups had more than a 30% reduction in the PAR scores. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the odds of achieving "great improvement" in the Invisalign group were 0.329 times the odds of achieving "great improvement" in the fixed appliances group after controlling for age (P = 0.0150). Our data showed that both Invisalign and fixed appliances were able to improve the malocclusion. Invisalign patients finished treatment faster than did those with fixed appliances. However, it appears that Invisalign may not be as effective as fixed appliances in achieving "great improvement" in a malocclusion. This study might help clinicians to determine appropriate patients for Invisalign treatment. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Occupational exposures to solvents and metals are associated with fixed airflow obstruction.

PubMed

Alif, Sheikh M; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Benke, Geza; Dennekamp, Martine; Burgess, John A; Perret, Jennifer L; Lodge, Caroline J; Morrison, Stephen; Johns, David P; Giles, Graham G; Gurrin, Lyle C; Thomas, Paul S; Hopper, John L; Wood-Baker, Richard; Thompson, Bruce R; Feather, Iain H; Vermeulen, Roel; Kromhout, Hans; Walters, E Haydn; Abramson, Michael J; Matheson, Melanie C

2017-11-01

Objectives This study investigated the associations between occupational exposures to solvents and metals and fixed airflow obstruction (AO) using post-bronchodilator spirometry. Methods We included 1335 participants from the 2002-2008 follow-up of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study. Ever-exposure and cumulative exposure-unit (EU) years were calculated using the ALOHA plus job exposure matrix (JEM). Fixed AO was defined as post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) <0.7 and FEV 1 /FVC

Genetic parameters for growth characteristics of free-range chickens under univariate random regression models.

PubMed

Rovadoscki, Gregori A; Petrini, Juliana; Ramirez-Diaz, Johanna; Pertile, Simone F N; Pertille, Fábio; Salvian, Mayara; Iung, Laiza H S; Rodriguez, Mary Ana P; Zampar, Aline; Gaya, Leila G; Carvalho, Rachel S B; Coelho, Antonio A D; Savino, Vicente J M; Coutinho, Luiz L; Mourão, Gerson B

2016-09-01

Repeated measures from the same individual have been analyzed by using repeatability and finite dimension models under univariate or multivariate analyses. However, in the last decade, the use of random regression models for genetic studies with longitudinal data have become more common. Thus, the aim of this research was to estimate genetic parameters for body weight of four experimental chicken lines by using univariate random regression models. Body weight data from hatching to 84 days of age (n = 34,730) from four experimental free-range chicken lines (7P, Caipirão da ESALQ, Caipirinha da ESALQ and Carijó Barbado) were used. The analysis model included the fixed effects of contemporary group (gender and rearing system), fixed regression coefficients for age at measurement, and random regression coefficients for permanent environmental effects and additive genetic effects. Heterogeneous variances for residual effects were considered, and one residual variance was assigned for each of six subclasses of age at measurement. Random regression curves were modeled by using Legendre polynomials of the second and third orders, with the best model chosen based on the Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and restricted maximum likelihood. Multivariate analyses under the same animal mixed model were also performed for the validation of the random regression models. The Legendre polynomials of second order were better for describing the growth curves of the lines studied. Moderate to high heritabilities (h(2) = 0.15 to 0.98) were estimated for body weight between one and 84 days of age, suggesting that selection for body weight at all ages can be used as a selection criteria. Genetic correlations among body weight records obtained through multivariate analyses ranged from 0.18 to 0.96, 0.12 to 0.89, 0.06 to 0.96, and 0.28 to 0.96 in 7P, Caipirão da ESALQ, Caipirinha da ESALQ, and Carijó Barbado chicken lines, respectively. Results indicate that genetic gain for body weight can be achieved by selection. Also, selection for body weight at 42 days of age can be maintained as a selection criterion. © 2016 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Framing the Future: Revisiting the Place of Educational Expectations in Status Attainment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bozick, Robert; Alexander, Karl; Entwisle, Doris; Dauber, Susan; Kerr, Kerri

2010-01-01

This study revisits the Wisconsin model of status attainment from a life course developmental perspective. Fixed-effects regression analyses lend strong support to the Wisconsin framework's core proposition that academic performance and significant others' influence shape educational expectations. However, investigating the process of expectation…

The Impact of Principal Movement and School Achievement on Principal Salaries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tran, Henry; Buckman, David G.

2017-01-01

This study examines whether principals' movements and school achievement are associated with their salaries. Predictors of principal salaries were examined using three years of panel data. Results from a fixed-effects regression analysis suggest that principals who moved to school leadership positions in other districts leveraged higher salaries…

Use of Midlevel Practitioners to Achieve Labor Cost Savings in the Primary Care Practice of an MCO

PubMed Central

Roblin, Douglas W; Howard, David H; Becker, Edmund R; Kathleen Adams, E; Roberts, Melissa H

2004-01-01

Objective To estimate the savings in labor costs per primary care visit that might be realized from increased use of physician assistants (PAs) and nurse practitioners (NPs) in the primary care practices of a managed care organization (MCO). Study Setting/Data Sources Twenty-six capitated primary care practices of a group model MCO. Data on approximately two million visits provided by 206 practitioners were extracted from computerized visit records for 1997–2000. Computerized payroll ledgers were the source of annual labor costs per practice from 1997–2000. Study Design Likelihood of a visit attended by a PA/NP versus MD was modeled using logistic regression, with practice fixed effects, by department (adult medicine, pediatrics) and year. Parameter estimates and practice fixed effects from these regressions were used to predict the proportion of PA/NP visits per practice per year given a standard case mix. Least squares regressions, with practice fixed effects, were used to estimate the association of this standardized predicted proportion of PA/NP visits with average annual practitioner and total labor costs per visit, controlling for other practice characteristics. Results On average, PAs/NPs attended one in three adult medicine visits and one in five pediatric medicine visits. Likelihood of a PA/NP visit was significantly higher than average among patients presenting with minor acute illness (e.g., acute pharyngitis). In adult medicine, likelihood of a PA/NP visit was lower than average among older patients. Practitioner labor costs per visit and total labor costs per visit were lower (p<.01 and p=.08, respectively) among practices with greater use of PAs/NPs, standardized for case mix. Conclusions Primary care practices that used more PAs/NPs in care delivery realized lower practitioner labor costs per visit than practices that used less. Future research should investigate the cost savings and cost-effectiveness potential of delivery designs that change staffing mix and division of labor among clinical disciplines. PMID:15149481

Income analysis of goat farmers on the farmers group in district of Serdang Bedagai

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manurung, J. N.; Hasnudi; Supriana, T.

2018-02-01

The farmers group are expected to reduce the production cost of goat breeding and improve the income of farmers which impact on the welfare of goat farmers. This research aim to analyze the factors that influence the income of farmers group, in sub-district Dolok Masihul Pegajahan, and Dolok Merawan, Serdang Bedagai. The method used is survey method with 90 respondents. Data was analysed by multiple linear regression. The result showed, simultaneously goat cost, sale price of goat, fixed cost and variable cost had significant effect on income of goat farmers. Partially, goat cost, variable cost and sale price of goat had significant effect on income of goat farmers, while fixed cost had no significant effect.

[Modeling of an influence of indicators of social stress on demographic processes in regions of the Russian Federation].

PubMed

Burkin, M M; Molchanova, E V

To assess an impact of indicators of social stress on demographic processes in regions of the Russian Federation using statistical methods. The data of Rosstat «Regions of Russia» and «Health care in Russia» were used as information base. Indicators of about 80 subjects of the Russian Federation (without autonomous areas) for the ten-year period (2005-2014) have been created in the form of the database consisting of the following blocks: medico-demographic situation, level of economic development of the territory and wellbeing of the population, development of social infrastructure, ecological and climatic conditions, scientific researches and innovations. In total, there were about 70 indicators. Panel data for 80 regions of Russia in 10 years, which combine both indicators of spatial type (cross-section data), and information on temporary ranks (time-series data), were used. Various models of regression according to the panel data have been realized: the integrated model of regression (pooled model), regression model with the fixed effects (fixed effect model), regression model with random effects (random effect model). Main demographic indicators (life expectancy, birth rate, mortality from the external reasons) are to a great extent connected with socio-economic factors. Social tension (social stress) caused by transition to market economy plays an important role. The integral assessment of the impact of the average per capita monetary income, incidence of alcoholism and alcoholic psychoses, criminality, sales volume of alcoholic beverages per capita and marriage relations on demographic indicators is presented. Results of modeling allow to define the priority directions in the field of development of mental health and psychotherapeutic services in the regions of the Russian Federation.

Does grandchild care influence grandparents' self-rated health? Evidence from a fixed effects approach.

PubMed

Ates, Merih

2017-10-01

The present study aims to identify, whether and how supplementary grandchild care is causally related to grandparents' self-rated health (SRH). Based on longitudinal data drawn from the German Aging Survey (DEAS; 2008-2014), I compare the results of pooled OLS, pooled OLS with lagged dependant variables (POLS-LD), random and fixed effects (RE, FE) panel regression. The results show that there is a positive but small association between supplementary grandchild care and SRH in POLS, POLS-LD, and RE models. However, the fixed effects model shows that the intrapersonal change in grandchild care does not cause a change in grandparents' SRH. The FE findings indicate that supplementary grandchild care in Germany does not have a causal impact on grandparents' SRH, suggesting that models with between-variation components overestimate the influence of grandchild care on grandparents' health because they do not control for unobserved (time-constant) heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adolescent mental health and earnings inequalities in adulthood: evidence from the Young-HUNT Study.

PubMed

Evensen, Miriam; Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde; Melkevik, Ole; Reneflot, Anne; Mykletun, Arnstein

2017-02-01

Previous studies have shown that adolescent mental health problems are associated with lower employment probabilities and risk of unemployment. The evidence on how earnings are affected is much weaker, and few have addressed whether any association reflects unobserved characteristics and whether the consequences of mental health problems vary across the earnings distribution. A population-based Norwegian health survey linked to administrative registry data (N=7885) was used to estimate how adolescents' mental health problems (separate indicators of internalising, conduct, and attention problems and total sum scores) affect earnings (≥30 years) in young adulthood. We used linear regression with fixed-effects models comparing either students within schools or siblings within families. Unconditional quantile regressions were used to explore differentials across the earnings distribution. Mental health problems in adolescence reduce average earnings in adulthood, and associations are robust to control for observed family background and school fixed effects. For some, but not all mental health problems, associations are also robust in sibling fixed-effects models, where all stable family factors are controlled. Further, we found much larger earnings loss below the 25th centile. Adolescent mental health problems reduce adult earnings, especially among individuals in the lower tail of the earnings distribution. Preventing mental health problems in adolescence may increase future earnings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Analysis of Palm Oil Production, Export, and Government Consumption to Gross Domestic Product of Five Districts in West Kalimantan by Panel Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistianingsih, E.; Kiftiah, M.; Rosadi, D.; Wahyuni, H.

2017-04-01

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an indicator of economic growth in a region. GDP is a panel data, which consists of cross-section and time series data. Meanwhile, panel regression is a tool which can be utilised to analyse panel data. There are three models in panel regression, namely Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and Random Effect Model (REM). The models will be chosen based on results of Chow Test, Hausman Test and Lagrange Multiplier Test. This research analyses palm oil about production, export, and government consumption to five district GDP are in West Kalimantan, namely Sanggau, Sintang, Sambas, Ketapang and Bengkayang by panel regression. Based on the results of analyses, it concluded that REM, which adjusted-determination-coefficient is 0,823, is the best model in this case. Also, according to the result, only Export and Government Consumption that influence GDP of the districts.

The Competitive Effects of the Louisiana Scholarship Program on Public School Performance. Louisiana Scholarship Program Evaluation Report #4. Technical Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Egalite, Anna J.

2016-01-01

Given the significant growth rate and geographic expansion of private school choice programs over the past two decades, it is important to examine how traditional public schools respond to the sudden injection of competition for students and resources. This article uses: (1) a school fixed effects approach; and (2) a regression discontinuity…

Systemic Sustainability in RtI Using Intervention-Based Scheduling Methodologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dallas, William P.

2017-01-01

This study evaluated a scheduling methodology referred to as intervention-based scheduling to address the problem of practice regarding the fidelity of implementing Response to Intervention (RtI) in an existing school schedule design. Employing panel data, this study used fixed-effects regressions and first differences ordinary least squares (OLS)…

Modeling containment of large wildfires using generalized linear mixed-model analysis

Treesearch

Mark Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh

2009-01-01

Billions of dollars are spent annually in the United States to contain large wildland fires, but the factors contributing to suppression success remain poorly understood. We used a regression model (generalized linear mixed-model) to model containment probability of individual fires, assuming that containment was a repeated-measures problem (fixed effect) and...

Associations of neighborhood disorganization and maternal spanking with children's aggression: A fixed-effects regression analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Julie; Grogan-Kaylor, Andrew; Lee, Shawna J

2018-02-01

This study employed fixed effects regression that controls for selection bias, omitted variables bias, and all time-invariant aspects of parent and child characteristics to examine the simultaneous associations between neighborhood disorganization, maternal spanking, and aggressive behavior in early childhood using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS). Analysis was based on 2,472 children and their mothers who participated in Wave 3 (2001-2003; child age 3) and Wave 4 (2003-2006; child age 5) of the FFCWS. Results indicated that higher rates of neighborhood crime and violence predicted higher levels of child aggression. Maternal spanking in the past year, whether frequent or infrequent, was also associated with increases in aggressive behavior. This study contributes statistically rigorous evidence that exposure to violence in the neighborhood as well as the family context are predictors of child aggression. We conclude with a discussion for the need for multilevel prevention and intervention approaches that target both community and parenting factors. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The effect of hospital mergers on long-term sickness absence among hospital employees: a fixed effects multivariate regression analysis using panel data

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Hospitals are merging to become more cost-effective. Mergers are often complex and difficult processes with variable outcomes. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of mergers on long-term sickness absence among hospital employees. Methods Long-term sickness absence was analyzed among hospital employees (N = 107 209) in 57 hospitals involved in 23 mergers in Norway between 2000 and 2009. Variation in long-term sickness absence was explained through a fixed effects multivariate regression analysis using panel data with years-since-merger as the independent variable. Results We found a significant but modest effect of mergers on long-term sickness absence in the year of the merger, and in years 2, 3 and 4; analyzed by gender there was a significant effect for women, also for these years, but only in year 4 for men. However, men are less represented among the hospital workforce; this could explain the lack of significance. Conclusions Mergers has a significant effect on employee health that should be taken into consideration when deciding to merge hospitals. This study illustrates the importance of analyzing the effects of mergers over several years and the need for more detailed analyses of merger processes and of the changes that may occur as a result of such mergers. PMID:24490750

Regression analysis using dependent Polya trees.

PubMed

Schörgendorfer, Angela; Branscum, Adam J

2013-11-30

Many commonly used models for linear regression analysis force overly simplistic shape and scale constraints on the residual structure of data. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian model for regression analysis that produces data-driven inference by using a new type of dependent Polya tree prior to model arbitrary residual distributions that are allowed to evolve across increasing levels of an ordinal covariate (e.g., time, in repeated measurement studies). By modeling residual distributions at consecutive covariate levels or time points using separate, but dependent Polya tree priors, distributional information is pooled while allowing for broad pliability to accommodate many types of changing residual distributions. We can use the proposed dependent residual structure in a wide range of regression settings, including fixed-effects and mixed-effects linear and nonlinear models for cross-sectional, prospective, and repeated measurement data. A simulation study illustrates the flexibility of our novel semiparametric regression model to accurately capture evolving residual distributions. In an application to immune development data on immunoglobulin G antibodies in children, our new model outperforms several contemporary semiparametric regression models based on a predictive model selection criterion. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

PubMed Central

Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

2014-01-01

Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

Using structured additive regression models to estimate risk factors of malaria: analysis of 2010 Malawi malaria indicator survey data.

PubMed

Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

2014-01-01

After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities.

Estimating the exceedance probability of rain rate by logistic regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, Long S.; Kedem, Benjamin

1990-01-01

Recent studies have shown that the fraction of an area with rain intensity above a fixed threshold is highly correlated with the area-averaged rain rate. To estimate the fractional rainy area, a logistic regression model, which estimates the conditional probability that rain rate over an area exceeds a fixed threshold given the values of related covariates, is developed. The problem of dependency in the data in the estimation procedure is bypassed by the method of partial likelihood. Analyses of simulated scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and observed electrically scanning microwave radiometer data during the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment period show that the use of logistic regression in pixel classification is superior to multiple regression in predicting whether rain rate at each pixel exceeds a given threshold, even in the presence of noisy data. The potential of the logistic regression technique in satellite rain rate estimation is discussed.

Accelerating Improvement and Narrowing Gaps: Trends in Patients' Experiences with Hospital Care Reflected in HCAHPS Public Reporting.

PubMed

Elliott, Marc N; Cohea, Christopher W; Lehrman, William G; Goldstein, Elizabeth H; Cleary, Paul D; Giordano, Laura A; Beckett, Megan K; Zaslavsky, Alan M

2015-12-01

Measure HCAHPS improvement in hospitals participating in the second and fifth years of HCAHPS public reporting; determine whether change is greater for some hospital types. Surveys from 4,822,960 adult inpatients discharged July 2007-June 2008 or July 2010-June 2011 from 3,541 U.S. hospitals. Linear mixed-effect regression models with fixed effects for time, patient mix, and hospital characteristics (bedsize, ownership, Census division, teaching status, Critical Access status); random effects for hospitals and hospital-time interactions; fixed-effect interactions of hospital characteristics and patient characteristics (gender, health, education) with time predicted HCAHPS measures correcting for regression-to-the-mean biases. National probability sample of adult inpatients in any of four approved survey modes. HCAHPS scores increased by 2.8 percentage points from 2008 to 2011 in the most positive response category. Among the middle 95 percent of hospitals, changes ranged from a 5.1 percent decrease to a 10.2 percent gain overall. The greatest improvement was in for-profit and larger (200 or more beds) hospitals. Five years after HCAHPS public reporting began, meaningful improvement of patients' hospital care experiences continues, especially among initially low-scoring hospitals, reducing some gaps among hospitals. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

On The Impact of Climate Change to Agricultural Productivity in East Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuswanto, Heri; Salamah, Mutiah; Mumpuni Retnaningsih, Sri; Dwi Prastyo, Dedy

2018-03-01

Many researches showed that climate change has significant impact on agricultural sector, which threats the food security especially in developing countries. It has been observed also that the climate change increases the intensity of extreme events. This research investigated the impact climate to the agricultural productivity in East Java, as one of the main rice producers in Indonesia. Standard regression as well as panel regression models have been performed in order to find the best model which is able to describe the climate change impact. The analysis found that the fixed effect model of panel regression outperforms the others showing that climate change had negatively impacted the rice productivity in East Java. The effect in Malang and Pasuruan were almost the same, while the impact in Sumenep was the least one compared to other districts.

Nursing Home Staffing Requirements and Input Substitution: Effects on Housekeeping, Food Service, and Activities Staff

PubMed Central

Bowblis, John R; Hyer, Kathryn

2013-01-01

Objective To study the effect of minimum nurse staffing requirements on the subsequent employment of nursing home support staff. Data Sources Nursing home data from the Online Survey Certification and Reporting (OSCAR) System merged with state nurse staffing requirements. Study Design Facility-level housekeeping, food service, and activities staff levels are regressed on nurse staffing requirements and other controls using fixed effect panel regression. Data Extraction Method OSCAR surveys from 1999 to 2004. Principal Findings Increases in state direct care and licensed nurse staffing requirements are associated with decreases in the staffing levels of all types of support staff. Conclusions Increased nursing home nurse staffing requirements lead to input substitution in the form of reduced support staffing levels. PMID:23445455

Nursing home staffing requirements and input substitution: effects on housekeeping, food service, and activities staff.

PubMed

Bowblis, John R; Hyer, Kathryn

2013-08-01

To study the effect of minimum nurse staffing requirements on the subsequent employment of nursing home support staff. Nursing home data from the Online Survey Certification and Reporting (OSCAR) System merged with state nurse staffing requirements. Facility-level housekeeping, food service, and activities staff levels are regressed on nurse staffing requirements and other controls using fixed effect panel regression. OSCAR surveys from 1999 to 2004. Increases in state direct care and licensed nurse staffing requirements are associated with decreases in the staffing levels of all types of support staff. Increased nursing home nurse staffing requirements lead to input substitution in the form of reduced support staffing levels. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Children's Home Environments: Understanding the Role of Family Structure Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kowaleski-Jones, Lori; Dunifon, Rachel

2004-01-01

Using data from the 1996 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) merged mother-child sample, we investigate the impact of two family events, parental divorce and the birth of a sibling, on the cognitive stimulation and emotional support provided to children in the home. We use fixed-effect regression techniques to control for unmeasured…

Testing the Efficacy of a Scholarship Program for Single Parent, Post-Freshmen, Full Time Undergraduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carpenter, Dick M., II; Kaka, Sarah J.; Tygret, Jennifer A.; Cathcart, Katy

2018-01-01

This study examines the efficacy of a scholarship program designed to assist single parent, post-freshmen, full time undergraduate students and predictors of success among a sample of said students, where success is defined as progress toward completion, academic achievement, and degree completion. Results of fixed effects regression and…

Eat, Drink, Man, Woman: Gender, Income Share and Household Expenditure in South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gummerson, Elizabeth; Schneider, Daniel

2013-01-01

This study examines how gendered household bargaining occurs in non-nuclear family households. We employ two South African data sets and use linear regression and household fixed effects to investigate the relationship between women's income shares and household expenditures. In married couple households, when women garner larger shares of income,…

The study of correlation among different scattering parameters in an aggregate dust model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazarbhuiya, A. M.; Das, H. S.

2017-09-01

We study the light scattering properties of aggregate particles in a wide range of complex refractive indices (m = n + i k, where 1.4 ≤ n ≤ 2.0, 0.001 ≤ k ≤1.0) and wavelengths (0.45 ≤ λ≤1.25 μ m) to investigate the correlation among different parameters e.g., the positive polarization maximum (P_{max}), the amplitude of the negative polarization (P_{min}), geometric albedo (A), (n,k) and λ. Numerical computations are performed by the Superposition T-matrix code with Ballistic Cluster-Cluster Aggregate (BCCA) particles of 128 monomers and Ballistic Aggregates (BA) particles of 512 monomers, where monomer's radius of aggregates is considered to be 0.1 μm. At a fixed value of k, P_{max} and n are correlated via a quadratic regression equation and this nature is observed at all wavelengths. Further, P_{max} and k are found to be related via a polynomial regression equation when n is taken to be fixed. The degree of the equation depends on the wavelength, higher the wavelength lower is the degree. We find that A and P_{max} are correlated via a cubic regression at λ= 0.45 μ m whereas this correlation is quadratic at higher wavelengths. We notice that |P_{min}| increases with the decrease of P_{max} and a strong linear correlation between them is observed when n is fixed at some value and k is changed from higher to lower value. Further, at a fix value of k, P_{min} and P_{max} can be fitted well via a quartic regression equation when n is changed from higher to lower value. We also find that P_{max} increases with λ and they are correlated via a quartic regression.

Random Effects: Variance Is the Spice of Life.

PubMed

Jupiter, Daniel C

Covariates in regression analyses allow us to understand how independent variables of interest impact our dependent outcome variable. Often, we consider fixed effects covariates (e.g., gender or diabetes status) for which we examine subjects at each value of the covariate. We examine both men and women and, within each gender, examine both diabetic and nondiabetic patients. Occasionally, however, we consider random effects covariates for which we do not examine subjects at every value. For example, we examine patients from only a sample of hospitals and, within each hospital, examine both diabetic and nondiabetic patients. The random sampling of hospitals is in contrast to the complete coverage of all genders. In this column I explore the differences in meaning and analysis when thinking about fixed and random effects variables. Copyright © 2016 American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of test-day models for genetic evaluation of dairy goats in Norway.

PubMed

Andonov, S; Ødegård, J; Boman, I A; Svendsen, M; Holme, I J; Adnøy, T; Vukovic, V; Klemetsdal, G

2007-10-01

Test-day data for daily milk yield and fat, protein, and lactose content were sampled from the years 1988 to 2003 in 17 flocks belonging to 2 genetically well-tied buck circles. In total, records from 2,111 to 2,215 goats for content traits and 2,371 goats for daily milk yield were included in the analysis, averaging 2.6 and 4.8 observations per goat for the 2 groups of traits, respectively. The data were analyzed by using 4 test-day models with different modeling of fixed effects. Model [0] (the reference model) contained a fixed effect of year-season of kidding with regression on Ali-Schaeffer polynomials nested within the year-season classes, and a random effect of flock test-day. In model [1], the lactation curve effect from model [0] was replaced by a fixed effect of days in milk (in 3-d periods), the same for all year-seasons of kidding. Models [2] and [3] were obtained from model [1] by removing the fixed year-season of kidding effect and considering the flock test-day effect as either fixed or random, respectively. The models were compared by using 2 criteria: mean-squared error of prediction and a test of bias affecting the genetic trend. The first criterion indicated a preference for model [3], whereas the second criterion preferred model [1]. Mean-squared error of prediction is based on model fit, whereas the second criterion tests the ability of the model to produce unbiased genetic evaluation (i.e., its capability of separating environmental and genetic time trends). Thus, a fixed structure with year (year, year-season, or possibly flock-year) was indicated to appropriately separate time trends. Heritability estimates for daily milk yield and milk content were 0.26 and 0.24 to 0.27, respectively.

Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2016-01-01

Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2016-12-01

Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

Do Addtional Designations of Wilderness Result in Increases in Recreation Use?

Treesearch

John B. Loomis

1999-01-01

Designation of public lands as wilderness continues to be a contentious issue. With about 45 million acres designated as wilderness in the lower 48 states, the question of whether designation of additional wilderness would result in increased recreation use has been raised. We address this issue using a fixed-effects regression model for wilderness use at national...

Impact of wearing fixed orthodontic appliances on quality of life among adolescents: Case-control study.

PubMed

Costa, Andréa A; Serra-Negra, Júnia M; Bendo, Cristiane B; Pordeus, Isabela A; Paiva, Saul M

2016-01-01

To investigate the impact of wearing a fixed orthodontic appliance on oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) among adolescents. A case-control study (1 ∶ 2) was carried out with a population-based randomized sample of 327 adolescents aged 11 to 14 years enrolled at public and private schools in the City of Brumadinho, southeast of Brazil. The case group (n  =  109) was made up of adolescents with a high negative impact on OHRQoL, and the control group (n  =  218) was made up of adolescents with a low negative impact. The outcome variable was the impact on OHRQoL measured by the Brazilian version of the Child Perceptions Questionnaire (CPQ 11-14) - Impact Short Form (ISF:16). The main independent variable was wearing fixed orthodontic appliances. Malocclusion and the type of school were identified as possible confounding variables. Bivariate and multiple conditional logistic regressions were employed in the statistical analysis. A multiple conditional logistic regression model demonstrated that adolescents wearing fixed orthodontic appliances had a 4.88-fold greater chance of presenting high negative impact on OHRQoL (95% CI: 2.93-8.13; P < .001) than those who did not wear fixed orthodontic appliances. A bivariate conditional logistic regression demonstrated that malocclusion was significantly associated with OHRQoL (P  =  .017), whereas no statistically significant association was found between the type of school and OHRQoL (P  =  .108). Adolescents who wore fixed orthodontic appliances had a greater chance of reporting a negative impact on OHRQoL than those who did not wear such appliances.

Regression calibration for models with two predictor variables measured with error and their interaction, using instrumental variables and longitudinal data.

PubMed

Strand, Matthew; Sillau, Stefan; Grunwald, Gary K; Rabinovitch, Nathan

2014-02-10

Regression calibration provides a way to obtain unbiased estimators of fixed effects in regression models when one or more predictors are measured with error. Recent development of measurement error methods has focused on models that include interaction terms between measured-with-error predictors, and separately, methods for estimation in models that account for correlated data. In this work, we derive explicit and novel forms of regression calibration estimators and associated asymptotic variances for longitudinal models that include interaction terms, when data from instrumental and unbiased surrogate variables are available but not the actual predictors of interest. The longitudinal data are fit using linear mixed models that contain random intercepts and account for serial correlation and unequally spaced observations. The motivating application involves a longitudinal study of exposure to two pollutants (predictors) - outdoor fine particulate matter and cigarette smoke - and their association in interactive form with levels of a biomarker of inflammation, leukotriene E4 (LTE 4 , outcome) in asthmatic children. Because the exposure concentrations could not be directly observed, we used measurements from a fixed outdoor monitor and urinary cotinine concentrations as instrumental variables, and we used concentrations of fine ambient particulate matter and cigarette smoke measured with error by personal monitors as unbiased surrogate variables. We applied the derived regression calibration methods to estimate coefficients of the unobserved predictors and their interaction, allowing for direct comparison of toxicity of the different pollutants. We used simulations to verify accuracy of inferential methods based on asymptotic theory. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of Workplace Weight Management on Health Care Expenditures and Quality of Life.

PubMed

Michaud, Tzeyu L; Nyman, John A; Jutkowitz, Eric; Su, Dejun; Dowd, Bryan; Abraham, Jean M

2016-11-01

We examined the effectiveness of the weight management program used by the University of Minnesota in reducing health care expenditures and improving quality of life of its employees, and also in reducing their absenteeism during a 3-year intervention. A differences-in-differences regression approach was used to estimate the effect of weight management participation. We further applied ordinary least squares regression models with fixed effects to estimate the effect in an alternative analysis. Participation in the weight management program significantly reduced health care expenditures by $69 per month for employees, spouses, and dependents, and by $73 for employees only. Quality-of-life weights were 0.0045 points higher for participating employees than for nonparticipating ones. No significant effect was found for absenteeism. The workplace weight management used by the University of Minnesota reduced health care expenditures and improved quality of life.

Long-term skeletal effects of high-pull headgear followed by fixed appliances for the treatment of Class II malocclusions.

PubMed

Bilbo, E Erin; Marshall, Steven D; Southard, Karin A; Allareddy, Verrasathpurush; Holton, Nathan; Thames, Allyn M; Otsby, Marlene S; Southard, Thomas E

2018-04-18

The long-term skeletal effects of Class II treatment in growing individuals using high-pull facebow headgear and fixed edgewise appliances have not been reported. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term skeletal effects of treatment using high-pull headgear followed by fixed orthodontic appliances compared to an untreated control group. Changes in anteroposterior and vertical cephalometric measurements of 42 Class II subjects (n = 21, mean age = 10.7 years) before treatment, after headgear correction to Class I molar relationship, after treatment with fixed appliances, and after long-term retention (mean 4.1 years), were compared to similar changes in a matched control group (n = 21, mean age = 10.9 years) by multivariable linear regression models. Compared to control, the study group displayed significant long-term horizontal restriction of A-point (SNA = -1.925°, P < .0001; FH-NA = -3.042°, P < .0001; linear measurement A-point to Vertical Reference = -3.859 mm, P < .0001) and reduction of the ANB angle (-1.767°, P < .0001), with no effect on mandibular horizontal growth or maxillary and mandibular vertical skeletal changes. A-point horizontal restriction and forward mandibular horizontal growth accompanied the study group correction to Class I molar, and these changes were stable long term. One phase treatment for Class II malocclusion with high-pull headgear followed by fixed orthodontic appliances resulted in correction to Class I molar through restriction of horizontal maxillary growth with continued horizontal mandibular growth and vertical skeletal changes unaffected. The anteroposterior molar correction and skeletal effects of this treatment were stable long term.

Does work-to-family conflict really matter for health? Cross-sectional, prospective cohort and fixed-effects analyses.

PubMed

Oshio, Takashi; Inoue, Akiomi; Tsutsumi, Akizumi

2017-02-01

It is well known that work-to-family conflict (WFC) is negatively associated with employees' health outcomes, including mental health and health behavior. However, the associations may be overstated because of insufficient control for unobserved individual attributes. To address this possibility, we compared the associations between WFC and health observed from a cross-sectional, prospective cohort and from fixed-effects regression models. We analyzed data from a Japanese occupational cohort survey of 15,102 observations from 7551 individuals (5947 men and 1604 women), which were collected in two waves with a one-year interval. We constructed a binary variable of high WFC and considered psychological distress measured using the Kessler 6 (K6) score, job and life dissatisfaction, and five types of health behavior (current smoking, problem drinking, leisure-time physical inactivity, sickness absence, and refraining from medical care). Results showed that for men, a high WFC increased the probability of reporting psychological distress (K6 score ≥ 5); this increased by 12.4% in a fixed-effects model. The association was substantially limited, as compared to the increase of 30.9% and 23.2% observed in cross-sectional and prospective cohort models, respectively; however, the association remained significant. Similar patterns were observed for job and life dissatisfaction. In contrast, the associations of WFC with all five types of health behavior were non-significant after controlling for fixed effects. We obtained generally similar results for women and found no substantial gender difference in the fixed-effects models. We concluded that the associations of WFC with employees' mental health and subjective well-being were robust, whereas the association between WFC and health behavior was generally limited. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in waist circumference and body mass index in the US CARDIA cohort: fixed-effects associations with self-reported experiences of racial/ethnic discrimination.

PubMed

Cunningham, Timothy J; Berkman, Lisa F; Kawachi, Ichiro; Jacobs, David R; Seeman, Teresa E; Kiefe, Catarina I; Gortmaker, Steven L

2013-03-01

Prior studies examining the association between self-reported experiences of racial/ethnic discrimination and obesity have had mixed results and primarily been cross-sectional. This study tests the hypothesis that an increase in self-reported experiences of racial/ethnic discrimination predicts gains in waist circumference and body mass index in Black and White women and men over eight years. In race/ethnicity- and gender-stratified models, this study examined whether change in self-reported experiences of racial/ethnic discrimination predicts changes in waist circumference and body mass index over time using a fixed-effects regression approach in SAS statistical software, providing control for both measured and unmeasured time-invariant covariates. Between 1992-93 and 2000-01, self-reported experiences of racial/ethnic discrimination decreased among 843 Black women (75% to 73%), 601 Black men (80% to 77%), 893 White women (30% to 23%) and 856 White men (28% to 23%). In fixed-effects regression models, controlling for all time-invariant covariates, social desirability bias, and changes in education and parity (women only) over time, an increase in self-reported experiences of racial/ethnic discrimination over time was significantly associated with an increase in waist circumference (β=1.09, 95% CI: 0.00-2.19, p=0.05) and an increase in body mass index (β=0.67, 95% CI: 0.19-1.16, p=0.007) among Black women. No associations were observed among Black men and White women and men. These findings suggest that an increase in self-reported experiences of racial/ethnic discrimination may be associated with increases in waist circumference and body mass index among Black women over time.

E-cigarette price sensitivity among middle- and high-school students: evidence from monitoring the future.

PubMed

Pesko, Michael F; Huang, Jidong; Johnston, Lloyd D; Chaloupka, Frank J

2018-05-01

We estimated associations between e-cigarette prices (both disposable and refill) and e-cigarette use among middle and high-school students in the United States. We also estimated associations between cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. We used regression models to estimate the associations between e-cigarette and cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. In our regression models, we exploited changes in e-cigarette and cigarette prices across four periods of time and across 50 markets. We report the associations as price elasticities. In our primary model, we controlled for socio-demographic characteristics, cigarette prices, tobacco control policies, market fixed effects and year-quarter fixed effects. United States of America. A total of 24 370 middle- and high-school students participating in the Monitoring the Future Survey in years 2014 and 2015. Self-reported e-cigarette use over the last 30 days. Average quarterly cigarette prices, e-cigarette disposable prices and e-cigarette refill prices were constructed from Nielsen retail data (inclusive of excise taxes) for 50 US markets. In a model with market fixed effects, we estimated that a 10% increase in e-cigarette disposable prices is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping among e-cigarette users by approximately 9.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -17.7 to 1.8%; P = 0.02] and is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping by the full sample by approximately 17.9% (95% CI = -31.5 to -4.2%; P = 0.01). Refill e-cigarette prices were not statistically significant predictors of vaping. Cigarette prices were not associated significantly with e-cigarette use regardless of the e-cigarette price used. However, in a model without market fixed effects, cigarette prices were a statistically significant positive predictor of total e-cigarette use. Higher e-cigarette disposable prices appear to be associated with reduced e-cigarette use among adolescents in the US. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

The role of personality in health care use: Results of a population-based longitudinal study in Germany.

PubMed

Hajek, André; Bock, Jens-Oliver; König, Hans-Helmut

2017-01-01

To determine the role of personality in health care use longitudinally. Data were derived from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of German households starting in 1984. Concentrating on the role of personality, we used data from the years 2005, 2009 and 2013. Personality was measured by using the GSOEP Big Five Inventory (BFI-S). Number of physician visits in the last 3 months and hospital stays in the last year were used as measures of health care use. Adjusting for predisposing factors, enabling resources, and need factors, fixed effects regressions revealed that physician visits increased with increasing neuroticism, whereas extraversion, openness to experience, agreeableness and conscientiousness did not affect physician visits in a significant way. The effect of self-rated health on physician visits was significantly moderated by neuroticism. Moreover, fixed effects regressions revealed that the probability of hospitalization in the past year increased with increasing extraversion, whereas the other personality factors did not affect this outcome measure significantly. Our findings suggest that changes in neuroticism are associated with changes in physician visits and that changes in extraversion are associated with the probability of hospitalization. Since recent studies have shown that treatments can modify personality traits, developing interventional strategies should take into account personality factors. For example, efforts to intervene in changing neuroticism might have beneficial effects for the healthcare system.

Comparison of statistical models to estimate parasite growth rate in the induced blood stage malaria model.

PubMed

Wockner, Leesa F; Hoffmann, Isabell; O'Rourke, Peter; McCarthy, James S; Marquart, Louise

2017-08-25

The efficacy of vaccines aimed at inhibiting the growth of malaria parasites in the blood can be assessed by comparing the growth rate of parasitaemia in the blood of subjects treated with a test vaccine compared to controls. In studies using induced blood stage malaria (IBSM), a type of controlled human malaria infection, parasite growth rate has been measured using models with the intercept on the y-axis fixed to the inoculum size. A set of statistical models was evaluated to determine an optimal methodology to estimate parasite growth rate in IBSM studies. Parasite growth rates were estimated using data from 40 subjects published in three IBSM studies. Data was fitted using 12 statistical models: log-linear, sine-wave with the period either fixed to 48 h or not fixed; these models were fitted with the intercept either fixed to the inoculum size or not fixed. All models were fitted by individual, and overall by study using a mixed effects model with a random effect for the individual. Log-linear models and sine-wave models, with the period fixed or not fixed, resulted in similar parasite growth rate estimates (within 0.05 log 10 parasites per mL/day). Average parasite growth rate estimates for models fitted by individual with the intercept fixed to the inoculum size were substantially lower by an average of 0.17 log 10 parasites per mL/day (range 0.06-0.24) compared with non-fixed intercept models. Variability of parasite growth rate estimates across the three studies analysed was substantially higher (3.5 times) for fixed-intercept models compared with non-fixed intercept models. The same tendency was observed in models fitted overall by study. Modelling data by individual or overall by study had minimal effect on parasite growth estimates. The analyses presented in this report confirm that fixing the intercept to the inoculum size influences parasite growth estimates. The most appropriate statistical model to estimate the growth rate of blood-stage parasites in IBSM studies appears to be a log-linear model fitted by individual and with the intercept estimated in the log-linear regression. Future studies should use this model to estimate parasite growth rates.

Cooperation without culture? The null effect of generalized trust on intentional homicide: a cross-national panel analysis, 1995-2009.

PubMed

Robbins, Blaine

2013-01-01

Sociologists, political scientists, and economists all suggest that culture plays a pivotal role in the development of large-scale cooperation. In this study, I used generalized trust as a measure of culture to explore if and how culture impacts intentional homicide, my operationalization of cooperation. I compiled multiple cross-national data sets and used pooled time-series linear regression, single-equation instrumental-variables linear regression, and fixed- and random-effects estimation techniques on an unbalanced panel of 118 countries and 232 observations spread over a 15-year time period. Results suggest that culture and large-scale cooperation form a tenuous relationship, while economic factors such as development, inequality, and geopolitics appear to drive large-scale cooperation.

Genome-Wide Association Studies with a Genomic Relationship Matrix: A Case Study with Wheat and Arabidopsis

PubMed Central

Gianola, Daniel; Fariello, Maria I.; Naya, Hugo; Schön, Chris-Carolin

2016-01-01

Standard genome-wide association studies (GWAS) scan for relationships between each of p molecular markers and a continuously distributed target trait. Typically, a marker-based matrix of genomic similarities among individuals (G) is constructed, to account more properly for the covariance structure in the linear regression model used. We show that the generalized least-squares estimator of the regression of phenotype on one or on m markers is invariant with respect to whether or not the marker(s) tested is(are) used for building G, provided variance components are unaffected by exclusion of such marker(s) from G. The result is arrived at by using a matrix expression such that one can find many inverses of genomic relationship, or of phenotypic covariance matrices, stemming from removing markers tested as fixed, but carrying out a single inversion. When eigenvectors of the genomic relationship matrix are used as regressors with fixed regression coefficients, e.g., to account for population stratification, their removal from G does matter. Removal of eigenvectors from G can have a noticeable effect on estimates of genomic and residual variances, so caution is needed. Concepts were illustrated using genomic data on 599 wheat inbred lines, with grain yield as target trait, and on close to 200 Arabidopsis thaliana accessions. PMID:27520956

Fuzzy Regression Prediction and Application Based on Multi-Dimensional Factors of Freight Volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Mengting; Li, Cheng

2018-01-01

Based on the reality of the development of air cargo, the multi-dimensional fuzzy regression method is used to determine the influencing factors, and the three most important influencing factors of GDP, total fixed assets investment and regular flight route mileage are determined. The system’s viewpoints and analogy methods, the use of fuzzy numbers and multiple regression methods to predict the civil aviation cargo volume. In comparison with the 13th Five-Year Plan for China’s Civil Aviation Development (2016-2020), it is proved that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of forecasting and reduce the risk of forecasting. It is proved that this model predicts civil aviation freight volume of the feasibility, has a high practical significance and practical operation.

Fungible Correlation Matrices: A Method for Generating Nonsingular, Singular, and Improper Correlation Matrices for Monte Carlo Research.

PubMed

Waller, Niels G

2016-01-01

For a fixed set of standardized regression coefficients and a fixed coefficient of determination (R-squared), an infinite number of predictor correlation matrices will satisfy the implied quadratic form. I call such matrices fungible correlation matrices. In this article, I describe an algorithm for generating positive definite (PD), positive semidefinite (PSD), or indefinite (ID) fungible correlation matrices that have a random or fixed smallest eigenvalue. The underlying equations of this algorithm are reviewed from both algebraic and geometric perspectives. Two simulation studies illustrate that fungible correlation matrices can be profitably used in Monte Carlo research. The first study uses PD fungible correlation matrices to compare penalized regression algorithms. The second study uses ID fungible correlation matrices to compare matrix-smoothing algorithms. R code for generating fungible correlation matrices is presented in the supplemental materials.

The U.S. health production function: evidence from 2001 to 2009.

PubMed

Tseng, Hui-Kuan; Olsen, Reed

2016-03-01

This study estimates the impact of the 2007 financial crisis upon U.S. health as measured by age adjusted death rates. OLS regression results suggest that the average death rate was lower in the post-crisis period than the pre-crisis period. The majority of the average decline in the death rate was a result of the time period and not a result of changes in the values of the underlying explanatory variables. We continue to find this result even adding state fixed effects. Contrary to other research, we find that the unemployment rate has no statistically significant impact on death rates either for the U.S. as a whole or for any states individually. Rather, the impact of the financial crisis is felt via year fixed effects that increased over time during the post-crisis period.

Government, politics and health policy: A quantitative analysis of 30 European countries.

PubMed

Mackenbach, Johan P; McKee, Martin

2015-10-01

Public health policies are often dependent on political decision-making, but little is known of the impact of different forms of government on countries' health policies. In this exploratory study we studied the association between a wide range of process and outcome indicators of health policy and four groups of political factors (levels of democracy, e.g. voice and accountability; political representation, e.g. voter turnout; distribution of power, e.g. constraints on the executive; and quality of government, e.g. absence of corruption) in contemporary Europe. Data on 15 aspects of government and 18 indicators of health policy as well as on potential confounders were extracted from harmonized international data sources, covering 30 European countries and the years 1990-2010. In a first step, multivariate regression analysis was used to relate cumulative measures of government to indicators of health policy, and in a second step panel regression with country fixed effects was used to relate changes in selected measures of government to changes in indicators of health policy. In multivariate regression analyses, measures of quality of democracy and quality of government had many positive associations with process and outcome indicators of health policy, while measures of distribution of power and political representation had few and inconsistent associations. Associations for quality of democracy were robust against more extensive control for confounding variables, including tests in panel regressions with country fixed effects, but associations for quality of government were not. In this period in Europe, the predominant political influence on health policy has been the rise of levels of democracy in countries in the Central & Eastern part of the region. In contrast to other areas of public policy, health policy does not appear to be strongly influenced by institutional features of democracy determining the distribution of power, nor by aspects of political representation. The effect of quality of government on health policy warrants more study. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The moderating role of overcommitment in the relationship between psychological contract breach and employee mental health.

PubMed

Reimann, Mareike

2016-09-30

This study investigated whether the association between perceived psychological contract breach (PCB) and employee mental health is moderated by the cognitive-motivational pattern of overcommitment (OC). Linking the psychological contract approach to the effort-reward imbalance model, this study examines PCB as an imbalance in employment relationships that acts as a psychosocial stressor in the work environment and is associated with stress reactions that in turn negatively affect mental health. The analyses were based on a sample of 3,667 employees who participated in a longitudinal linked employer-employee survey representative of large organizations (with at least 500 employees who are subject so social security contributions) in Germany. Fixed-effects regression models, including PCB and OC, were estimated for employee mental health, and interaction effects between PCB and OC were assessed. The multivariate fixed-effects regression analyses showed a significant negative association between PCB and employee mental health. The results also confirmed that OC does indeed significantly increase the negative effect of PCB on mental health and that OC itself has a significant and negative effect on mental health. The results suggest that employees characterized by the cognitive-motivational pattern of OC are at an increased risk of developing poor mental health if they experience PCB compared with employees who are not overly committed to their work. The results of this study support the assumption that psychosocial work stressors play an important role in employee mental health.

The moderating role of overcommitment in the relationship between psychological contract breach and employee mental health

PubMed Central

Reimann, Mareike

2016-01-01

Objectives: This study investigated whether the association between perceived psychological contract breach (PCB) and employee mental health is moderated by the cognitive-motivational pattern of overcommitment (OC). Linking the psychological contract approach to the effort-reward imbalance model, this study examines PCB as an imbalance in employment relationships that acts as a psychosocial stressor in the work environment and is associated with stress reactions that in turn negatively affect mental health. Methods: The analyses were based on a sample of 3,667 employees who participated in a longitudinal linked employer-employee survey representative of large organizations (with at least 500 employees who are subject so social security contributions) in Germany. Fixed-effects regression models, including PCB and OC, were estimated for employee mental health, and interaction effects between PCB and OC were assessed. Results: The multivariate fixed-effects regression analyses showed a significant negative association between PCB and employee mental health. The results also confirmed that OC does indeed significantly increase the negative effect of PCB on mental health and that OC itself has a significant and negative effect on mental health. Conclusions: The results suggest that employees characterized by the cognitive-motivational pattern of OC are at an increased risk of developing poor mental health if they experience PCB compared with employees who are not overly committed to their work. The results of this study support the assumption that psychosocial work stressors play an important role in employee mental health. PMID:27488041

Accounting for individual differences and timing of events: estimating the effect of treatment on criminal convictions in heroin users.

PubMed

Røislien, Jo; Clausen, Thomas; Gran, Jon Michael; Bukten, Anne

2014-05-17

The reduction of crime is an important outcome of opioid maintenance treatment (OMT). Criminal intensity and treatment regimes vary among OMT patients, but this is rarely adjusted for in statistical analyses, which tend to focus on cohort incidence rates and rate ratios. The purpose of this work was to estimate the relationship between treatment and criminal convictions among OMT patients, adjusting for individual covariate information and timing of events, fitting time-to-event regression models of increasing complexity. National criminal records were cross linked with treatment data on 3221 patients starting OMT in Norway 1997-2003. In addition to calculating cohort incidence rates, criminal convictions was modelled as a recurrent event dependent variable, and treatment a time-dependent covariate, in Cox proportional hazards, Aalen's additive hazards, and semi-parametric additive hazards regression models. Both fixed and dynamic covariates were included. During OMT, the number of days with criminal convictions for the cohort as a whole was 61% lower than when not in treatment. OMT was associated with reduced number of days with criminal convictions in all time-to-event regression models, but the hazard ratio (95% CI) was strongly attenuated when adjusting for covariates; from 0.40 (0.35, 0.45) in a univariate model to 0.79 (0.72, 0.87) in a fully adjusted model. The hazard was lower for females and decreasing with older age, while increasing with high numbers of criminal convictions prior to application to OMT (all p < 0.001). The strongest predictors were level of criminal activity prior to entering into OMT, and having a recent criminal conviction (both p < 0.001). The effect of several predictors was significantly time-varying with their effects diminishing over time. Analyzing complex observational data regarding to fixed factors only overlooks important temporal information, and naïve cohort level incidence rates might result in biased estimates of the effect of interventions. Applying time-to-event regression models, properly adjusting for individual covariate information and timing of various events, allows for more precise and reliable effect estimates, as well as painting a more nuanced picture that can aid health care professionals and policy makers.

Sick of our loans: Student borrowing and the mental health of young adults in the United States.

PubMed

Walsemann, Katrina M; Gee, Gilbert C; Gentile, Danielle

2015-01-01

Student loans are increasingly important and commonplace, especially among recent cohorts of young adults in the United States. These loans facilitate the acquisition of human capital in the form of education, but may also lead to stress and worries related to repayment. This study investigated two questions: 1) what is the association between the cumulative amount of student loans borrowed over the course of schooling and psychological functioning when individuals are 25-31 years old; and 2) what is the association between annual student loan borrowing and psychological functioning among currently enrolled college students? We also examined whether these relationships varied by parental wealth, college enrollment history (e.g. 2-year versus 4-year college), and educational attainment (for cumulative student loans only). We analyzed data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), a nationally representative sample of young adults in the United States. Analyses employed multivariate linear regression and within-person fixed-effects models. Student loans were associated with poorer psychological functioning, adjusting for covariates, in both the multivariate linear regression and the within-person fixed effects models. This association varied by level of parental wealth in the multivariate linear regression models only, and did not vary by college enrollment history or educational attainment. The present findings raise novel questions for further research regarding student loan debt and the possible spillover effects on other life circumstances, such as occupational trajectories and health inequities. The study of student loans is even more timely and significant given the ongoing rise in the costs of higher education. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective Surfactants Blend Concentration Determination for O/W Emulsion Stabilization by Two Nonionic Surfactants by Simple Linear Regression.

PubMed

Hassan, A K

2015-01-01

In this work, O/W emulsion sets were prepared by using different concentrations of two nonionic surfactants. The two surfactants, tween 80(HLB=15.0) and span 80(HLB=4.3) were used in a fixed proportions equal to 0.55:0.45 respectively. HLB value of the surfactants blends were fixed at 10.185. The surfactants blend concentration is starting from 3% up to 19%. For each O/W emulsion set the conductivity was measured at room temperature (25±2°), 40, 50, 60, 70 and 80°. Applying the simple linear regression least squares method statistical analysis to the temperature-conductivity obtained data determines the effective surfactants blend concentration required for preparing the most stable O/W emulsion. These results were confirmed by applying the physical stability centrifugation testing and the phase inversion temperature range measurements. The results indicated that, the relation which represents the most stable O/W emulsion has the strongest direct linear relationship between temperature and conductivity. This relationship is linear up to 80°. This work proves that, the most stable O/W emulsion is determined via the determination of the maximum R² value by applying of the simple linear regression least squares method to the temperature-conductivity obtained data up to 80°, in addition to, the true maximum slope is represented by the equation which has the maximum R² value. Because the conditions would be changed in a more complex formulation, the method of the determination of the effective surfactants blend concentration was verified by applying it for more complex formulations of 2% O/W miconazole nitrate cream and the results indicate its reproducibility.

Psychosocial job quality and mental health among young workers: a fixed-effects regression analysis using 13 waves of annual data.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; Krnjack, Lauren; LaMontagne, Anthony D

2017-01-01

Objectives Entry into employment may be a time when a young person's well-being and mental health is challenged. Specifically, we examined the difference in mental health when a young person was "not in the labor force" (NILF) (ie, non-working activity such as participating in education) compared to being in a job with varying levels of psychosocial quality. Method The data source for this study was the Household Income and Labor Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) study, and the sample included 10 534 young people (aged ≤30 years). We used longitudinal fixed-effects regression to investigate within-person changes in mental health comparing circumstances where individuals were NILF to when they were employed in jobs of varying psychosocial quality. Results Compared to when individuals were not in the labor force, results suggest a statistically significant decline in mental health when young people were employed in jobs with poor psychosocial working conditions and an improvement in mental health when they were employed in jobs with optimal psychosocial working conditions. Our results were robust to various sensitivity tests, including adjustment for life events and the lagged effects of mental health and job stressors. Conclusions If causal, the results suggest that improving the psychosocial quality of work for younger workers will protect and promote their wellbeing, and may reduce the likelihood of mental health problems later on.

Cooperation without Culture? The Null Effect of Generalized Trust on Intentional Homicide: A Cross-National Panel Analysis, 1995–2009

PubMed Central

Robbins, Blaine

2013-01-01

Sociologists, political scientists, and economists all suggest that culture plays a pivotal role in the development of large-scale cooperation. In this study, I used generalized trust as a measure of culture to explore if and how culture impacts intentional homicide, my operationalization of cooperation. I compiled multiple cross-national data sets and used pooled time-series linear regression, single-equation instrumental-variables linear regression, and fixed- and random-effects estimation techniques on an unbalanced panel of 118 countries and 232 observations spread over a 15-year time period. Results suggest that culture and large-scale cooperation form a tenuous relationship, while economic factors such as development, inequality, and geopolitics appear to drive large-scale cooperation. PMID:23527211

Effect of mobile phone use on metal ion release from fixed orthodontic appliances.

PubMed

Saghiri, Mohammad Ali; Orangi, Jafar; Asatourian, Armen; Mehriar, Peiman; Sheibani, Nader

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields emitted by mobile phones on the level of nickel in saliva. Fifty healthy patients with fixed orthodontic appliances were asked not to use their cell phones for a week, and their saliva samples were taken at the end of the week (control group). The patients recorded their time of mobile phone usage during the next week and returned for a second saliva collection (experimental group). Samples at both times were taken between 8:00 and 10:00 pm, and the nickel levels were measured. Two-tailed paired-samples t test, linear regression, independent t test, and 1-way analysis of variance were used for data analysis. The 2-tailed paired-samples t test showed significant differences between the levels of nickel in the control and experimental groups (t [49] = 9.967; P <0.001). The linear regression test showed a significant relationship between mobile phone usage time and the nickel release (F [1, 48] = 60.263; P <0.001; R(2) = 0.577). Mobile phone usage has a time-dependent influence on the concentration of nickel in the saliva of patients with orthodontic appliances. Copyright © 2015 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fixing Advising: A Model for Faculty Advising

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crocker, Robert M.; Kahla, Marlene; Allen, Charlotte

2014-01-01

This paper addresses mandates to fix the advising process with a focus on faculty advising systems. Measures of student success and satisfaction, administrative issues, and faculty concerns are among the many factors discussed. Regression analysis is used to explore long-voiced faculty complaints that students do not follow advice. A case study is…

Effectiveness of Vildagliptin in Clinical Practice: Pooled Analysis of Three Korean Observational Studies (the VICTORY Study).

PubMed

Suh, Sunghwan; Song, Sun Ok; Kim, Jae Hyeon; Cho, Hyungjin; Lee, Woo Je; Lee, Byung-Wan

2017-01-01

The present observational study aimed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of vildagliptin with metformin in Korean patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Data were pooled from the vildagliptin postmarketing survey (PMS), the vildagliptin/metformin fixed drug combination (DC) PMS, and a retrospective observational study of vildagliptin/metformin (fixed DC or free DC). The effectiveness endpoint was the proportion of patients who achieved a glycemic target (HbA1c) of ≤7.0% at 24 weeks. In total, 4303 patients were included in the analysis; of these, 2087 patients were eligible. The mean patient age was 56.99 ± 11.25 years. Overall, 58.94% patients achieved an HbA1c target of ≤7.0% at 24 weeks. The glycemic target achievement rate was significantly greater in patients with baseline HbA1c < 7.5% versus ≥7.5% (84.64% versus 43.97%), receiving care at the hospital versus clinic (67.95% versus 52.33%), and receiving vildagliptin/metformin fixed DC versus free DC (70.69% versus 55.42%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that disease duration ( P < 0.0001), baseline HbA1c ( P < 0.0001), and DC type ( P = 0.0103) had significant effects on drug effectiveness. Vildagliptin plus metformin appeared as an effective treatment option for patients with T2DM in clinical practice settings in Korea.

Optimizing Preprocessing and Analysis Pipelines for Single-Subject FMRI. I. Standard Temporal Motion and Physiological Noise Correction Methods

PubMed Central

Churchill, Nathan W.; Oder, Anita; Abdi, Hervé; Tam, Fred; Lee, Wayne; Thomas, Christopher; Ween, Jon E.; Graham, Simon J.; Strother, Stephen C.

2016-01-01

Subject-specific artifacts caused by head motion and physiological noise are major confounds in BOLD fMRI analyses. However, there is little consensus on the optimal choice of data preprocessing steps to minimize these effects. To evaluate the effects of various preprocessing strategies, we present a framework which comprises a combination of (1) nonparametric testing including reproducibility and prediction metrics of the data-driven NPAIRS framework (Strother et al. [2002]: NeuroImage 15:747–771), and (2) intersubject comparison of SPM effects, using DISTATIS (a three-way version of metric multidimensional scaling (Abdi et al. [2009]: NeuroImage 45:89–95). It is shown that the quality of brain activation maps may be significantly limited by sub-optimal choices of data preprocessing steps (or “pipeline”) in a clinical task-design, an fMRI adaptation of the widely used Trail-Making Test. The relative importance of motion correction, physiological noise correction, motion parameter regression, and temporal detrending were examined for fMRI data acquired in young, healthy adults. Analysis performance and the quality of activation maps were evaluated based on Penalized Discriminant Analysis (PDA). The relative importance of different preprocessing steps was assessed by (1) a nonparametric Friedman rank test for fixed sets of preprocessing steps, applied to all subjects; and (2) evaluating pipelines chosen specifically for each subject. Results demonstrate that preprocessing choices have significant, but subject-dependant effects, and that individually-optimized pipelines may significantly improve the reproducibility of fMRI results over fixed pipelines. This was demonstrated by the detection of a significant interaction with motion parameter regression and physiological noise correction, even though the range of subject head motion was small across the group (≪ 1 voxel). Optimizing pipelines on an individual-subject basis also revealed brain activation patterns either weak or absent under fixed pipelines, which has implications for the overall interpretation of fMRI data, and the relative importance of preprocessing methods. PMID:21455942

Statistical modelling for precision agriculture: A case study in optimal environmental schedules for Agaricus Bisporus production via variable domain functional regression.

PubMed

Panayi, Efstathios; Peters, Gareth W; Kyriakides, George

2017-01-01

Quantifying the effects of environmental factors over the duration of the growing process on Agaricus Bisporus (button mushroom) yields has been difficult, as common functional data analysis approaches require fixed length functional data. The data available from commercial growers, however, is of variable duration, due to commercial considerations. We employ a recently proposed regression technique termed Variable-Domain Functional Regression in order to be able to accommodate these irregular-length datasets. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of covariates such as temperature, humidity and water spraying volumes across the growing process, and for different lengths of growing processes. Our results indicate that optimal oxygen and temperature levels vary across the growing cycle and we propose environmental schedules for these covariates to optimise overall yields.

Statistical modelling for precision agriculture: A case study in optimal environmental schedules for Agaricus Bisporus production via variable domain functional regression

PubMed Central

Panayi, Efstathios; Kyriakides, George

2017-01-01

Quantifying the effects of environmental factors over the duration of the growing process on Agaricus Bisporus (button mushroom) yields has been difficult, as common functional data analysis approaches require fixed length functional data. The data available from commercial growers, however, is of variable duration, due to commercial considerations. We employ a recently proposed regression technique termed Variable-Domain Functional Regression in order to be able to accommodate these irregular-length datasets. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of covariates such as temperature, humidity and water spraying volumes across the growing process, and for different lengths of growing processes. Our results indicate that optimal oxygen and temperature levels vary across the growing cycle and we propose environmental schedules for these covariates to optimise overall yields. PMID:28961254

The role of personality in health care use: Results of a population-based longitudinal study in Germany

PubMed Central

König, Hans-Helmut

2017-01-01

Objective To determine the role of personality in health care use longitudinally. Methods Data were derived from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of German households starting in 1984. Concentrating on the role of personality, we used data from the years 2005, 2009 and 2013. Personality was measured by using the GSOEP Big Five Inventory (BFI-S). Number of physician visits in the last 3 months and hospital stays in the last year were used as measures of health care use. Results Adjusting for predisposing factors, enabling resources, and need factors, fixed effects regressions revealed that physician visits increased with increasing neuroticism, whereas extraversion, openness to experience, agreeableness and conscientiousness did not affect physician visits in a significant way. The effect of self-rated health on physician visits was significantly moderated by neuroticism. Moreover, fixed effects regressions revealed that the probability of hospitalization in the past year increased with increasing extraversion, whereas the other personality factors did not affect this outcome measure significantly. Conclusion Our findings suggest that changes in neuroticism are associated with changes in physician visits and that changes in extraversion are associated with the probability of hospitalization. Since recent studies have shown that treatments can modify personality traits, developing interventional strategies should take into account personality factors. For example, efforts to intervene in changing neuroticism might have beneficial effects for the healthcare system. PMID:28746388

Genome-wide Association Study to Identify Quantitative Trait Loci for Meat and Carcass Quality Traits in Berkshire

PubMed Central

Iqbal, Asif; Kim, You-Sam; Kang, Jun-Mo; Lee, Yun-Mi; Rai, Rajani; Jung, Jong-Hyun; Oh, Dong-Yup; Nam, Ki-Chang; Lee, Hak-Kyo; Kim, Jong-Joo

2015-01-01

Meat and carcass quality attributes are of crucial importance influencing consumer preference and profitability in the pork industry. A set of 400 Berkshire pigs were collected from Dasan breeding farm, Namwon, Chonbuk province, Korea that were born between 2012 and 2013. To perform genome wide association studies (GWAS), eleven meat and carcass quality traits were considered, including carcass weight, backfat thickness, pH value after 24 hours (pH24), Commission Internationale de l’Eclairage lightness in meat color (CIE L), redness in meat color (CIE a), yellowness in meat color (CIE b), filtering, drip loss, heat loss, shear force and marbling score. All of the 400 animals were genotyped with the Porcine 62K SNP BeadChips (Illumina Inc., USA). A SAS general linear model procedure (SAS version 9.2) was used to pre-adjust the animal phenotypes before GWAS with sire and sex effects as fixed effects and slaughter age as a covariate. After fitting the fixed and covariate factors in the model, the residuals of the phenotype regressed on additive effects of each single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) under a linear regression model (PLINK version 1.07). The significant SNPs after permutation testing at a chromosome-wise level were subjected to stepwise regression analysis to determine the best set of SNP markers. A total of 55 significant (p<0.05) SNPs or quantitative trait loci (QTL) were detected on various chromosomes. The QTLs explained from 5.06% to 8.28% of the total phenotypic variation of the traits. Some QTLs with pleiotropic effect were also identified. A pair of significant QTL for pH24 was also found to affect both CIE L and drip loss percentage. The significant QTL after characterization of the functional candidate genes on the QTL or around the QTL region may be effectively and efficiently used in marker assisted selection to achieve enhanced genetic improvement of the trait considered. PMID:26580276

Random regression analyses using B-splines functions to model growth from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle.

PubMed

Baldi, F; Alencar, M M; Albuquerque, L G

2010-12-01

The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions using random regression models on B-splines functions of animal age, for weights from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle. Data comprised 49,011 records on 2435 females. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups, age of dam as quadratic covariable and the population mean trend taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Residual variances were modelled through a step function with four classes. The direct and maternal additive genetic effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects were included as random effects in the model. A total of seventeen analyses, considering linear, quadratic and cubic B-splines functions and up to seven knots, were carried out. B-spline functions of the same order were considered for all random effects. Random regression models on B-splines functions were compared to a random regression model on Legendre polynomials and with a multitrait model. Results from different models of analyses were compared using the REML form of the Akaike Information criterion and Schwarz' Bayesian Information criterion. In addition, the variance components and genetic parameters estimated for each random regression model were also used as criteria to choose the most adequate model to describe the covariance structure of the data. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. Random regression models using B-spline functions as base functions fitted the data better than Legendre polynomials, especially at mature ages, but higher number of parameters need to be estimated with B-splines functions. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Genome-Wide Association Studies with a Genomic Relationship Matrix: A Case Study with Wheat and Arabidopsis.

PubMed

Gianola, Daniel; Fariello, Maria I; Naya, Hugo; Schön, Chris-Carolin

2016-10-13

Standard genome-wide association studies (GWAS) scan for relationships between each of p molecular markers and a continuously distributed target trait. Typically, a marker-based matrix of genomic similarities among individuals ( G: ) is constructed, to account more properly for the covariance structure in the linear regression model used. We show that the generalized least-squares estimator of the regression of phenotype on one or on m markers is invariant with respect to whether or not the marker(s) tested is(are) used for building G,: provided variance components are unaffected by exclusion of such marker(s) from G: The result is arrived at by using a matrix expression such that one can find many inverses of genomic relationship, or of phenotypic covariance matrices, stemming from removing markers tested as fixed, but carrying out a single inversion. When eigenvectors of the genomic relationship matrix are used as regressors with fixed regression coefficients, e.g., to account for population stratification, their removal from G: does matter. Removal of eigenvectors from G: can have a noticeable effect on estimates of genomic and residual variances, so caution is needed. Concepts were illustrated using genomic data on 599 wheat inbred lines, with grain yield as target trait, and on close to 200 Arabidopsis thaliana accessions. Copyright © 2016 Gianola et al.

Random regression models using different functions to model milk flow in dairy cows.

PubMed

Laureano, M M M; Bignardi, A B; El Faro, L; Cardoso, V L; Tonhati, H; Albuquerque, L G

2014-09-12

We analyzed 75,555 test-day milk flow records from 2175 primiparous Holstein cows that calved between 1997 and 2005. Milk flow was obtained by dividing the mean milk yield (kg) of the 3 daily milking by the total milking time (min) and was expressed as kg/min. Milk flow was grouped into 43 weekly classes. The analyses were performed using a single-trait Random Regression Models that included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. In addition, the contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of cow age at calving were included as fixed effects. Fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial of days in milk was used to model the mean trend in milk flow. The additive genetic and permanent environmental covariance functions were estimated using random regression Legendre polynomials and B-spline functions of days in milk. The model using a third-order Legendre polynomial for additive genetic effects and a sixth-order polynomial for permanent environmental effects, which contained 7 residual classes, proved to be the most adequate to describe variations in milk flow, and was also the most parsimonious. The heritability in milk flow estimated by the most parsimonious model was of moderate to high magnitude.

Estimation of genetic parameters related to eggshell strength using random regression models.

PubMed

Guo, J; Ma, M; Qu, L; Shen, M; Dou, T; Wang, K

2015-01-01

This study examined the changes in eggshell strength and the genetic parameters related to this trait throughout a hen's laying life using random regression. The data were collected from a crossbred population between 2011 and 2014, where the eggshell strength was determined repeatedly for 2260 hens. Using random regression models (RRMs), several Legendre polynomials were employed to estimate the fixed, direct genetic and permanent environment effects. The residual effects were treated as independently distributed with heterogeneous variance for each test week. The direct genetic variance was included with second-order Legendre polynomials and the permanent environment with third-order Legendre polynomials. The heritability of eggshell strength ranged from 0.26 to 0.43, the repeatability ranged between 0.47 and 0.69, and the estimated genetic correlations between test weeks was high at > 0.67. The first eigenvalue of the genetic covariance matrix accounted for about 97% of the sum of all the eigenvalues. The flexibility and statistical power of RRM suggest that this model could be an effective method to improve eggshell quality and to reduce losses due to cracked eggs in a breeding plan.

Unequal views of inequality: Cross-national support for redistribution 1985-2011.

PubMed

VanHeuvelen, Tom

2017-05-01

This research examines public views on government responsibility to reduce income inequality, support for redistribution. While individual-level correlates of support for redistribution are relatively well understood, many questions remain at the country-level. Therefore, I examine how country-level characteristics affect aggregate support for redistribution. I test explanations of aggregate support using a unique dataset combining 18 waves of the International Social Survey Programme and European Social Survey. Results from mixed-effects logistic regression and fixed-effects linear regression models show two primary and contrasting effects. States that reduce inequality through bundles of tax and transfer policies are rewarded with more supportive publics. In contrast, economic development has a seemingly equivalent and dampening effect on public support. Importantly, the effect of economic development grows at higher levels of development, potentially overwhelming the amplifying effect of state redistribution. My results therefore suggest a fundamental challenge to proponents of egalitarian politics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An application of the Health Action Process Approach model to oral hygiene behaviour and dental plaque in adolescents with fixed orthodontic appliances.

PubMed

Scheerman, Janneke F M; van Empelen, Pepijn; van Loveren, Cor; Pakpour, Amir H; van Meijel, Berno; Gholami, Maryam; Mierzaie, Zaher; van den Braak, Matheus C T; Verrips, Gijsbert H W

2017-11-01

The Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) model addresses health behaviours, but it has never been applied to model adolescents' oral hygiene behaviour during fixed orthodontic treatment. This study aimed to apply the HAPA model to explain adolescents' oral hygiene behaviour and dental plaque during orthodontic treatment with fixed appliances. In this cross-sectional study, 116 adolescents with fixed appliances from an orthodontic clinic situated in Almere (the Netherlands) completed a questionnaire assessing oral health behaviours and the psychosocial factors of the HAPA model. Linear regression analyses were performed to examine the factors associated with dental plaque, toothbrushing, and the use of a proxy brush. Stepwise regression analysis showed that lower amounts of plaque were significantly associated with higher frequency of the use of a proxy brush (R 2 = 45%), higher intention of the use of a proxy brush (R 2 = 5%), female gender (R 2 = 2%), and older age (R 2 = 2%). The multiple regression analyses revealed that higher action self-efficacy, intention, maintenance self-efficacy, and a higher education were significantly associated with the use of a proxy brush (R 2 = 45%). Decreased levels of dental plaque are mainly associated with increased use of a proxy brush that is subsequently associated with a higher intention and self-efficacy to use the proxy brush. © 2017 BSPD, IAPD and John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ownership conversions and nursing home performance.

PubMed

Grabowski, David C; Stevenson, David G

2008-08-01

To examine the effects of ownership conversions on nursing home performance. Online Survey, Certification, and Reporting system data from 1993 to 2004, and the Minimum Data Set (MDS) facility reports from 1998 to 2004. Regression specification incorporating facility fixed effects, with terms to identify trends in the pre- and postconversion periods. The annual rate of nursing home conversions almost tripled between 1994 and 2004. Our regression results indicate converting facilities are generally different throughout the pre/postconversion years, suggesting little causal effect of ownership conversions on nursing home performance. Before and after conversion, nursing homes converting from nonprofit to for-profit status generally exhibit deterioration in their performance, while nursing homes converting from for-profit to nonprofit status generally exhibit improvement. Policy makers have expressed concern regarding the implications of ownership conversions for nursing home performance. Our results imply that regulators and policy makers should not only monitor the outcomes of nursing home conversions, but also the targets of these conversions.

Less money, more problems: How changes in disposable income affect child maltreatment.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Michael

2017-05-01

A number of research studies have documented an association between child maltreatment and family income. Yet, little is known about the specific types of economic shocks that affect child maltreatment rates. The paucity of information is troubling given that more than six million children are reported for maltreatment annually in the U.S. alone. This study examines whether an exogenous shock to families' disposable income, a change in the price of gasoline, predicts changes in child maltreatment. The findings of a fixed-effects regression show that increases in state-level gas prices are associated with increases in state-level child maltreatment referral rates, even after controlling for demographic and other economic variables. The results are robust to the manner of estimation; random-effects and mixed-effects regressions produce similar estimates. The findings suggest that fluctuations in the price of gas may have important consequences for children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Organizational Performance: Application of Neurocomputing as an Alternative to Statistical Regression

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-09-01

separate network architetures would otherwise have to be performed for each 𔃼 5 of the nearly 70 cross-validation regressions. Fixing the composition...presentation. The generalized delta rule says the weight of each connection should be changed by an amount proportional to the product of the processing

Legume Shrubs Are More Nitrogen-Homeostatic than Non-legume Shrubs

PubMed Central

Guo, Yanpei; Yang, Xian; Schöb, Christian; Jiang, Youxu; Tang, Zhiyao

2017-01-01

Legumes are characterized as keeping stable nutrient supply under nutrient-limited conditions. However, few studies examined the legumes' stoichiometric advantages over other plants across various taxa in natural ecosystems. We explored differences in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) stoichiometry of different tissue types (leaf, stem, and root) between N2-fixing legume shrubs and non-N2-fixing shrubs from 299 broadleaved deciduous shrubland sites in northern China. After excluding effects of taxonomy and environmental variables, these two functional groups differed considerably in nutrient regulation. N concentrations and N:P ratios were higher in legume shrubs than in non-N2-fixing shrubs. N concentrations were positively correlated between the plants and soil for non-N2-fixing shrubs, but not for legume shrubs, indicating a stronger stoichiometric homeostasis in legume shrubs than in non-N2-fixing shrubs. N concentrations were positively correlated among three tissue types for non-N2-fixing shrubs, but not between leaves and non-leaf tissues for legume shrubs, demonstrating that N concentrations were more dependent among tissues for non-N2-fixing shrubs than for legume shrubs. N and P concentrations were correlated within all tissues for both functional groups, but the regression slopes were flatter for legume shrubs than non-N2-fixing shrubs, implying that legume shrubs were more P limited than non-N2-fixing shrubs. These results address significant differences in stoichiometry between legume shrubs and non-N2-fixing shrubs, and indicate the influence of symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF) on plant stoichiometry. Overall, N2-fixing legume shrubs are higher and more stoichiometrically homeostatic in N concentrations. However, due to excess uptake of N, legumes may suffer from potential P limitation. With their N advantage, legume shrubs could be good nurse plants in restoration sites with degraded soil, but their P supply should be taken care of during management according to our results. PMID:29018468

Legume Shrubs Are More Nitrogen-Homeostatic than Non-legume Shrubs.

PubMed

Guo, Yanpei; Yang, Xian; Schöb, Christian; Jiang, Youxu; Tang, Zhiyao

2017-01-01

Legumes are characterized as keeping stable nutrient supply under nutrient-limited conditions. However, few studies examined the legumes' stoichiometric advantages over other plants across various taxa in natural ecosystems. We explored differences in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) stoichiometry of different tissue types (leaf, stem, and root) between N 2 -fixing legume shrubs and non-N 2 -fixing shrubs from 299 broadleaved deciduous shrubland sites in northern China. After excluding effects of taxonomy and environmental variables, these two functional groups differed considerably in nutrient regulation. N concentrations and N:P ratios were higher in legume shrubs than in non-N 2 -fixing shrubs. N concentrations were positively correlated between the plants and soil for non-N 2 -fixing shrubs, but not for legume shrubs, indicating a stronger stoichiometric homeostasis in legume shrubs than in non-N 2 -fixing shrubs. N concentrations were positively correlated among three tissue types for non-N 2 -fixing shrubs, but not between leaves and non-leaf tissues for legume shrubs, demonstrating that N concentrations were more dependent among tissues for non-N 2 -fixing shrubs than for legume shrubs. N and P concentrations were correlated within all tissues for both functional groups, but the regression slopes were flatter for legume shrubs than non-N 2 -fixing shrubs, implying that legume shrubs were more P limited than non-N 2 -fixing shrubs. These results address significant differences in stoichiometry between legume shrubs and non-N 2 -fixing shrubs, and indicate the influence of symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF) on plant stoichiometry. Overall, N 2 -fixing legume shrubs are higher and more stoichiometrically homeostatic in N concentrations. However, due to excess uptake of N, legumes may suffer from potential P limitation. With their N advantage, legume shrubs could be good nurse plants in restoration sites with degraded soil, but their P supply should be taken care of during management according to our results.

Trans-ethnic meta-regression of genome-wide association studies accounting for ancestry increases power for discovery and improves fine-mapping resolution

PubMed Central

Mägi, Reedik; Horikoshi, Momoko; Sofer, Tamar; Mahajan, Anubha; Kitajima, Hidetoshi; Franceschini, Nora; McCarthy, Mark I.; Morris, Andrew P.

2017-01-01

Abstract Trans-ethnic meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) across diverse populations can increase power to detect complex trait loci when the underlying causal variants are shared between ancestry groups. However, heterogeneity in allelic effects between GWAS at these loci can occur that is correlated with ancestry. Here, a novel approach is presented to detect SNP association and quantify the extent of heterogeneity in allelic effects that is correlated with ancestry. We employ trans-ethnic meta-regression to model allelic effects as a function of axes of genetic variation, derived from a matrix of mean pairwise allele frequency differences between GWAS, and implemented in the MR-MEGA software. Through detailed simulations, we demonstrate increased power to detect association for MR-MEGA over fixed- and random-effects meta-analysis across a range of scenarios of heterogeneity in allelic effects between ethnic groups. We also demonstrate improved fine-mapping resolution, in loci containing a single causal variant, compared to these meta-analysis approaches and PAINTOR, and equivalent performance to MANTRA at reduced computational cost. Application of MR-MEGA to trans-ethnic GWAS of kidney function in 71,461 individuals indicates stronger signals of association than fixed-effects meta-analysis when heterogeneity in allelic effects is correlated with ancestry. Application of MR-MEGA to fine-mapping four type 2 diabetes susceptibility loci in 22,086 cases and 42,539 controls highlights: (i) strong evidence for heterogeneity in allelic effects that is correlated with ancestry only at the index SNP for the association signal at the CDKAL1 locus; and (ii) 99% credible sets with six or fewer variants for five distinct association signals. PMID:28911207

Effects of calcium feeding strategy on true ileal phosphorus digestibility and true phosphorus retention determined with growing broilers.

PubMed

Perryman, K R; Masey O'Neill, H V; Bedford, M R; Dozier, W A

2016-05-01

An experiment utilizing 960 Ross × Ross 708 male broilers was conducted to determine the effects of Ca feeding strategy on true ileal (prececal) P digestibility (TIPD) and true P retention (TPR) of corn. Experimental diets were formulated with 1 of 3 dietary Ca feeding strategies (0.95%, 0.13%, or variable Ca concentrations to maintain a 2.1:1 Ca:P ratio) and contain 0, 25, 50, or 75% corn. A practical corn-soybean meal diet (1.4:1 Ca:P ratio) was fed as a control. After receiving a common starter diet, experimental diets were fed from 19 to 26 d of age. After a 48-h dietary adaptation period, a 48-h retention assay was conducted. At 25 and 26 d of age, ileal digesta were collected from 8 birds per cage. Broilers consuming the control diet had higher (P<0.001) BW gain, feed intake, digesta P, and excreta P than broilers consuming the corn titration diets. Digesta and excreta P increased (linear, P<0.05) with graded increases of corn. True ileal P digestibility and TPR were highest (P<0.05) for diets with 0.13% Ca (57.3 and 69.5%, respectively) compared with diets formulated with a 2.1:1 Ca:P ratio (41.2 and 37.8%, respectively) or 0.95% Ca (25.4 and 39.0%, respectively). Values for TPR were higher (P<0.05) than those for TIPD except when the dietary Ca:P ratio was fixed. Additionally, negative endogenous P losses were predicted by regression equations when TPR was estimated for birds fed titration diets with the fixed Ca:P ratio. Changing the Ca concentration of the diets to maintain a fixed Ca:P ratio influenced (P<0.001) apparent P retention, which affected the estimate for TPR due to the prediction of negative endogenous P losses. These data demonstrated that regression analysis may have limitations when estimating the TIPD or TPR of corn when formulating diets with different Ca feeding strategies. More research is necessary to elucidate the factors that contributed to regression equations predicting negative endogenous P losses. © 2016 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Parametric analysis for matched pair survival data.

PubMed

Manatunga, A K; Oakes, D

1999-12-01

Hougaard's (1986) bivariate Weibull distribution with positive stable frailties is applied to matched pairs survival data when either or both components of the pair may be censored and covariate vectors may be of arbitrary fixed length. When there is no censoring, we quantify the corresponding gain in Fisher information over a fixed-effects analysis. With the appropriate parameterization, the results take a simple algebraic form. An alternative marginal ("independence working model") approach to estimation is also considered. This method ignores the correlation between the two survival times in the derivation of the estimator, but provides a valid estimate of standard error. It is shown that when both the correlation between the two survival times is high, and the ratio of the within-pair variability to the between-pair variability of the covariates is high, the fixed-effects analysis captures most of the information about the regression coefficient but the independence working model does badly. When the correlation is low, and/or most of the variability of the covariates occurs between pairs, the reverse is true. The random effects model is applied to data on skin grafts, and on loss of visual acuity among diabetics. In conclusion some extensions of the methods are indicated and they are placed in a wider context of Generalized Estimation Equation methodology.

Penalized spline estimation for functional coefficient regression models.

PubMed

Cao, Yanrong; Lin, Haiqun; Wu, Tracy Z; Yu, Yan

2010-04-01

The functional coefficient regression models assume that the regression coefficients vary with some "threshold" variable, providing appreciable flexibility in capturing the underlying dynamics in data and avoiding the so-called "curse of dimensionality" in multivariate nonparametric estimation. We first investigate the estimation, inference, and forecasting for the functional coefficient regression models with dependent observations via penalized splines. The P-spline approach, as a direct ridge regression shrinkage type global smoothing method, is computationally efficient and stable. With established fixed-knot asymptotics, inference is readily available. Exact inference can be obtained for fixed smoothing parameter λ, which is most appealing for finite samples. Our penalized spline approach gives an explicit model expression, which also enables multi-step-ahead forecasting via simulations. Furthermore, we examine different methods of choosing the important smoothing parameter λ: modified multi-fold cross-validation (MCV), generalized cross-validation (GCV), and an extension of empirical bias bandwidth selection (EBBS) to P-splines. In addition, we implement smoothing parameter selection using mixed model framework through restricted maximum likelihood (REML) for P-spline functional coefficient regression models with independent observations. The P-spline approach also easily allows different smoothness for different functional coefficients, which is enabled by assigning different penalty λ accordingly. We demonstrate the proposed approach by both simulation examples and a real data application.

A Comparison of Mobile and Fixed Device Access on User Engagement Associated With Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Online Nutrition Education

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Online health education has expanded its reach due to cost-effective implementation and demonstrated effectiveness. However, a limitation exists with the evaluation of online health education implementations and how the impact of the system is attenuated by the extent to which a user engages with it. Moreover, the current online health education research does not consider how this engagement has been affected by the transition from fixed to mobile user access over the last decade. Objective This paper focuses on comparing the impact mobile versus fixed devices have on user engagement key performance indicators (KPI) associated with the wichealth website (.org), an Internet-based parent-child feeding intervention offered to clients associated with the US Department of Agriculture’s Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Methods Data were collected from 612,201 nutrition education lessons completed by 305,735 unique WIC participants in 21 states over a 1-year period. Data consisted of system-collected measures, profile items, and items from an exit survey administered at the conclusion of each lesson. User engagement was defined based on 3 KPIs associated with usage of the wichealth website: number of link views, link view time, and progression in stage of readiness to change. Independent samples t tests were used to compare KPIs between fixed only and mobile only device users and paired samples t tests were used to compare KPIs within users who completed at least one lesson each on both a fixed and mobile device. A logistic regression was performed to estimate the odds of KPI performance thresholds in the independent samples study group given access device type while controlling for confounding of user characteristics associated with these KPIs. Results Analysis of 8 user characteristics (lessons completed, race, ethnicity, language, state of residence, pregnancy status, beginning stage of change, and preferred nutrition education method) were significantly (P<.001) related to various KPI differences between mobile and fixed device access. Non-mobile users were significantly (P<.001) more likely to engage based on all 3 KPIs, even after logistic regression control for the potential confounding related to the strongly associated user characteristics identified. Conclusions The findings of this study support the idea that online health education developers need to seriously consider access device when creating programs. Online health education developers need to take extra effort to truly understand access patterns of populations being served, and whether or not access device will influence user engagement performance indicators. PMID:27847351

Nonlinear isochrones in murine left ventricular pressure-volume loops: how well does the time-varying elastance concept hold?

PubMed

Claessens, T E; Georgakopoulos, D; Afanasyeva, M; Vermeersch, S J; Millar, H D; Stergiopulos, N; Westerhof, N; Verdonck, P R; Segers, P

2006-04-01

The linear time-varying elastance theory is frequently used to describe the change in ventricular stiffness during the cardiac cycle. The concept assumes that all isochrones (i.e., curves that connect pressure-volume data occurring at the same time) are linear and have a common volume intercept. Of specific interest is the steepest isochrone, the end-systolic pressure-volume relationship (ESPVR), of which the slope serves as an index for cardiac contractile function. Pressure-volume measurements, achieved with a combined pressure-conductance catheter in the left ventricle of 13 open-chest anesthetized mice, showed a marked curvilinearity of the isochrones. We therefore analyzed the shape of the isochrones by using six regression algorithms (two linear, two quadratic, and two logarithmic, each with a fixed or time-varying intercept) and discussed the consequences for the elastance concept. Our main observations were 1) the volume intercept varies considerably with time; 2) isochrones are equally well described by using quadratic or logarithmic regression; 3) linear regression with a fixed intercept shows poor correlation (R(2) < 0.75) during isovolumic relaxation and early filling; and 4) logarithmic regression is superior in estimating the fixed volume intercept of the ESPVR. In conclusion, the linear time-varying elastance fails to provide a sufficiently robust model to account for changes in pressure and volume during the cardiac cycle in the mouse ventricle. A new framework accounting for the nonlinear shape of the isochrones needs to be developed.

Examination of universal purchase programs as a driver of vaccine uptake among US States, 1995-2014.

PubMed

Mulligan, Karen; Snider, Julia Thornton; Arthur, Phyllis; Frank, Gregory; Tebeka, Mahlet; Walker, Amy; Abrevaya, Jason

2018-06-01

Immunization against numerous potentially life-threatening illnesses has been a great public health achievement. In the United States, the Vaccines for Children (VFC) program has provided vaccines to uninsured and underinsured children since the early 1990s, increasing vaccination rates. In recent years, some states have adopted Universal Purchase (UP) programs with the stated aim of further increasing vaccination rates. Under UP programs, states also purchase vaccines for privately-insured children at federally-contracted VFC prices and bill private health insurers for the vaccines through assessments. In this study, we estimated the effect of UP adoption in a state on children's vaccination rates using state-level and individual-level data from the 1995-2014 National Immunization Survey. For the state-level analysis, we performed ordinary least squares regression to estimate the state's vaccination rate as a function of whether the state had UP in the given year, state demographic characteristics, other vaccination policies, state fixed effects, and a time trend. For the individual analysis, we performed logistic regression to estimate a child's likelihood of being vaccinated as a function of whether the state had UP in the given year, the child's demographic characteristics, state characteristics and vaccine policies, state fixed effects, and a time trend. We performed separate regressions for each of nine recommended vaccines, as well as composite measures on whether a child was up-to-date on all required vaccines. In the both the state-level and individual-level analyses, we found UP had no significant (p < 0.10) effect on any of the vaccines or composite measures in our base case specifications. Results were similar in alternative specifications. We hypothesize that UP was ineffective in increasing vaccination rates. Policymakers seeking to increase vaccination rates would do well to consider other policies such as addressing provider practice issues and vaccine hesitancy. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Effect of sour tea (Hibiscus sabdariffa L.) on arterial hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Serban, Corina; Sahebkar, Amirhossein; Ursoniu, Sorin; Andrica, Florina; Banach, Maciej

2015-06-01

Hibiscus sabdariffa L. is a tropical wild plant rich in organic acids, polyphenols, anthocyanins, polysaccharides, and volatile constituents that are beneficial for the cardiovascular system. Hibiscus sabdariffa beverages are commonly consumed to treat arterial hypertension, yet the evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) has not been fully conclusive. Therefore, we aimed to assess the potential antihypertensive effects of H. sabdariffa through systematic review of literature and meta-analysis of available RCTs. The search included PUBMED, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and EMBASE (up to July 2014) to identify RCTs investigating the efficacy of H. sabdariffa supplementation on SBP and DBP values. Two independent reviewers extracted data on the study characteristics, methods, and outcomes. Quantitative data synthesis and meta-regression were performed using a fixed-effect model, and sensitivity analysis using leave-one-out method. Five RCTs (comprising seven treatment arms) were selected for the meta-analysis. In total, 390 participants were randomized, of whom 225 were allocated to the H. sabdariffa supplementation group and 165 to the control group in the selected studies. Fixed-effect meta-regression indicated a significant effect of H. sabdariffa supplementation in lowering both SBP (weighed mean difference -7.58 mmHg, 95% confidence interval -9.69 to -5.46, P < 0.00001) and DBP (weighed mean difference -3.53 mmHg, 95% confidence interval -5.16 to -1.89, P < 0.0001). These effects were inversely associated with baseline BP values, and were robust in sensitivity analyses. This meta-analysis of RCTs showed a significant effect of H. sabdariffa in lowering both SBP and DBP. Further well designed trials are necessary to validate these results.

Implementations of geographically weighted lasso in spatial data with multicollinearity (Case study: Poverty modeling of Java Island)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiyorini, Anis; Suprijadi, Jadi; Handoko, Budhi

2017-03-01

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a regression model that takes into account the spatial heterogeneity effect. In the application of the GWR, inference on regression coefficients is often of interest, as is estimation and prediction of the response variable. Empirical research and studies have demonstrated that local correlation between explanatory variables can lead to estimated regression coefficients in GWR that are strongly correlated, a condition named multicollinearity. It later results on a large standard error on estimated regression coefficients, and, hence, problematic for inference on relationships between variables. Geographically Weighted Lasso (GWL) is a method which capable to deal with spatial heterogeneity and local multicollinearity in spatial data sets. GWL is a further development of GWR method, which adds a LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) constraint in parameter estimation. In this study, GWL will be applied by using fixed exponential kernel weights matrix to establish a poverty modeling of Java Island, Indonesia. The results of applying the GWL to poverty datasets show that this method stabilizes regression coefficients in the presence of multicollinearity and produces lower prediction and estimation error of the response variable than GWR does.

The impact of social engagement on health-related quality of life and depressive symptoms in old age - evidence from a multicenter prospective cohort study in Germany.

PubMed

Hajek, André; Brettschneider, Christian; Mallon, Tina; Ernst, Annette; Mamone, Silke; Wiese, Birgitt; Weyerer, Siegfried; Werle, Jochen; Pentzek, Michael; Fuchs, Angela; Stein, Janine; Luck, Tobias; Bickel, Horst; Weeg, Dagmar; Wagner, Michael; Heser, Kathrin; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; König, Hans-Helmut

2017-07-14

Thus far, only a few longitudinal studies investigated the impact of social engagement on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and depressive symptoms in old age. Therefore, we aimed to examine the impact of social engagement on HRQoL and depressive symptoms in late life. Individuals aged 75 years and over at baseline were interviewed every 1.5 years in a multicenter prospective cohort study in Germany. While HRQoL was quantified by using the Visual Analogue Scale (EQ VAS) of the EQ-5D instrument, depressive symptoms was assessed by using the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS). Individuals reported the frequency ("never" to "every day") of social engagement (e.g., engagement in the church, as a volunteer, in a party, or in a club) in the last four weeks. Fixed effects regressions were used to estimate the effect of social engagement on the outcome variables. After adjusting for age, marital status, functional status and chronic diseases, fixed effects regressions revealed that the onset of social engagement markedly increased HRQoL and considerably decreased depressive symptoms in the total sample and in women, but not men. Our findings corroborate the relevance of social engagement for HRQoL and depressive symptoms in old age. Encouraging the individuals to start, maintain and expand social engagement in late life might help to maintain and improve HRQoL and decrease depressive symptoms.

Genetic analysis of body weights of individually fed beef bulls in South Africa using random regression models.

PubMed

Selapa, N W; Nephawe, K A; Maiwashe, A; Norris, D

2012-02-08

The aim of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for body weights of individually fed beef bulls measured at centralized testing stations in South Africa using random regression models. Weekly body weights of Bonsmara bulls (N = 2919) tested between 1999 and 2003 were available for the analyses. The model included a fixed regression of the body weights on fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomials of the actual days on test (7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56, 63, 70, 77, and 84) for starting age and contemporary group effects. Random regressions on fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomials of the actual days on test were included for additive genetic effects and additional uncorrelated random effects of the weaning-herd-year and the permanent environment of the animal. Residual effects were assumed to be independently distributed with heterogeneous variance for each test day. Variance ratios for additive genetic, permanent environment and weaning-herd-year for weekly body weights at different test days ranged from 0.26 to 0.29, 0.37 to 0.44 and 0.26 to 0.34, respectively. The weaning-herd-year was found to have a significant effect on the variation of body weights of bulls despite a 28-day adjustment period. Genetic correlations amongst body weights at different test days were high, ranging from 0.89 to 1.00. Heritability estimates were comparable to literature using multivariate models. Therefore, random regression model could be applied in the genetic evaluation of body weight of individually fed beef bulls in South Africa.

Genetic instrumental variable regression: Explaining socioeconomic and health outcomes in nonexperimental data

PubMed Central

DiPrete, Thomas A.; Burik, Casper A. P.; Koellinger, Philipp D.

2018-01-01

Identifying causal effects in nonexperimental data is an enduring challenge. One proposed solution that recently gained popularity is the idea to use genes as instrumental variables [i.e., Mendelian randomization (MR)]. However, this approach is problematic because many variables of interest are genetically correlated, which implies the possibility that many genes could affect both the exposure and the outcome directly or via unobserved confounding factors. Thus, pleiotropic effects of genes are themselves a source of bias in nonexperimental data that would also undermine the ability of MR to correct for endogeneity bias from nongenetic sources. Here, we propose an alternative approach, genetic instrumental variable (GIV) regression, that provides estimates for the effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of pleiotropy. As a valuable byproduct, GIV regression also provides accurate estimates of the chip heritability of the outcome variable. GIV regression uses polygenic scores (PGSs) for the outcome of interest which can be constructed from genome-wide association study (GWAS) results. By splitting the GWAS sample for the outcome into nonoverlapping subsamples, we obtain multiple indicators of the outcome PGSs that can be used as instruments for each other and, in combination with other methods such as sibling fixed effects, can address endogeneity bias from both pleiotropy and the environment. In two empirical applications, we demonstrate that our approach produces reasonable estimates of the chip heritability of educational attainment (EA) and show that standard regression and MR provide upwardly biased estimates of the effect of body height on EA. PMID:29686100

Genetic instrumental variable regression: Explaining socioeconomic and health outcomes in nonexperimental data.

PubMed

DiPrete, Thomas A; Burik, Casper A P; Koellinger, Philipp D

2018-05-29

Identifying causal effects in nonexperimental data is an enduring challenge. One proposed solution that recently gained popularity is the idea to use genes as instrumental variables [i.e., Mendelian randomization (MR)]. However, this approach is problematic because many variables of interest are genetically correlated, which implies the possibility that many genes could affect both the exposure and the outcome directly or via unobserved confounding factors. Thus, pleiotropic effects of genes are themselves a source of bias in nonexperimental data that would also undermine the ability of MR to correct for endogeneity bias from nongenetic sources. Here, we propose an alternative approach, genetic instrumental variable (GIV) regression, that provides estimates for the effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of pleiotropy. As a valuable byproduct, GIV regression also provides accurate estimates of the chip heritability of the outcome variable. GIV regression uses polygenic scores (PGSs) for the outcome of interest which can be constructed from genome-wide association study (GWAS) results. By splitting the GWAS sample for the outcome into nonoverlapping subsamples, we obtain multiple indicators of the outcome PGSs that can be used as instruments for each other and, in combination with other methods such as sibling fixed effects, can address endogeneity bias from both pleiotropy and the environment. In two empirical applications, we demonstrate that our approach produces reasonable estimates of the chip heritability of educational attainment (EA) and show that standard regression and MR provide upwardly biased estimates of the effect of body height on EA. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Effectiveness of Vildagliptin in Clinical Practice: Pooled Analysis of Three Korean Observational Studies (the VICTORY Study)

PubMed Central

Suh, Sunghwan; Song, Sun Ok; Kim, Jae Hyeon; Cho, Hyungjin

2017-01-01

The present observational study aimed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of vildagliptin with metformin in Korean patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Data were pooled from the vildagliptin postmarketing survey (PMS), the vildagliptin/metformin fixed drug combination (DC) PMS, and a retrospective observational study of vildagliptin/metformin (fixed DC or free DC). The effectiveness endpoint was the proportion of patients who achieved a glycemic target (HbA1c) of ≤7.0% at 24 weeks. In total, 4303 patients were included in the analysis; of these, 2087 patients were eligible. The mean patient age was 56.99 ± 11.25 years. Overall, 58.94% patients achieved an HbA1c target of ≤7.0% at 24 weeks. The glycemic target achievement rate was significantly greater in patients with baseline HbA1c < 7.5% versus ≥7.5% (84.64% versus 43.97%), receiving care at the hospital versus clinic (67.95% versus 52.33%), and receiving vildagliptin/metformin fixed DC versus free DC (70.69% versus 55.42%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that disease duration (P < 0.0001), baseline HbA1c (P < 0.0001), and DC type (P = 0.0103) had significant effects on drug effectiveness. Vildagliptin plus metformin appeared as an effective treatment option for patients with T2DM in clinical practice settings in Korea. PMID:29057274

Demand for Health Insurance by Military Retirees

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

Plans,” The Journal of Health Economics 16, No. 2 (1997): 231–247 and Bruce A. Strombom, Thomas C. Buchmueller, and Paul J. Feldstein, “Switching Costs...Initiative: Volume 3. Health Care Utilization and Costs,” R -4244/3-HA (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1993). 10 probit regression model for TRICARE...Solomon (1998) Stanford University employees, panel data, 1994–95 HMO vs. PPO and FFS Logit -0.29 Fixed-Effects Logit -0.97 Barringer and Mitchell

Age and gender differences in the influence of social support on mental health: a longitudinal fixed-effects analysis using 13 annual waves of the HILDA cohort.

PubMed

Milner, A; Krnjacki, L; LaMontagne, A D

2016-11-01

Perceived social support is associated with better mental health. There has been limited attention to how these relationships are modified by age and gender. We assessed this topic using 13 years of cohort data. Prospective cohort study. The outcome was the Mental Health Inventory-5 (MHI-5), a reliable and valid screening instrument for mood disorders. The main exposure was a social support scale composed of 10 items. We used longitudinal fixed-effects regression modelling to investigate within-person changes in mental health. Analytic models controlled for within-person sources of bias. We controlled for time-related factors by including them into regression modelling. The provision of higher levels of social support was associated with greater improvements in mental health for people aged under 30 years than for older age groups. The mental health of females appeared to benefit slightly more from higher levels of social support than males. Improvements in the MHI-5 were on a scale that could be considered clinically significant. The benefits of social support for young people may be connected to age-related transitions in self-identity and peer friendship networks. Results for females may reflect their tendency to place greater emphasis on social networks than males. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Working hours and depressive symptoms over 7 years: evidence from a Korean panel study.

PubMed

Ahn, Seoyeon

2018-04-01

This study aims to examine how working hours influence depressive symptoms and the association between working hours and depressive symptoms differently across genders. The sample consists of salaried workers aged 25-64 years who participated in two consecutive waves of the seven-wave Korean Welfare Panel Study (2007-2013) (n = 6813 individuals, 27,986 observations) which is a survey of a nationally representative sample of the South Korean population. I apply logit regression and fixed-effects logit regression to examine the causal relation between (intra-)individual changes of working hours and depressive symptoms over a 7-year period. Results from logit model and fixed-effects logit model show that less than 30 h of work per week and more than 60 h of work per week are associated with significantly higher levels of depressive symptoms. Sex-stratified analyses reveal that women who worked over 60 h per week were at increased risk of showing depressive symptoms compared with women who worked 30-40 h per week. No significant increase in depressive symptoms was seen in men who worked more than 60 h per week. However, men working less than 30 h per week are more likely to report higher levels of depressive symptoms. These results suggest that work arrangement affects the mental health of men and women differently.

Does government expenditure reduce inequalities in infant mortality rates in low- and middle-income countries?: A time-series, ecological analysis of 48 countries from 1993 to 2013.

PubMed

Baker, Peter; Hone, Thomas; Reeves, Aaron; Avendano, Mauricio; Millett, Christopher

2018-06-27

Inequalities in infant mortality rates (IMRs) are rising in some low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and decreasing in others, but the explanation for these divergent trends is unclear. We investigate whether government expenditures and redistribution are associated with reductions in inequalities in IMRs. We estimated country-level fixed-effects panel regressions for 48 LMICs (142 country observations). Slope and Relative Indices of Inequality in IMRs (SII and RII) were calculated from Demographic and Health Surveys between 1993 and 2013. RII and SII were regressed on government expenditure (total, health and non-health) and redistribution, controlling for gross domestic product (GDP), private health expenditures, a democracy indicator, country fixed effects and time. Mean SII and RII was 39.12 and 0.69, respectively. In multivariate models, a 1 percentage point increase in total government expenditure (% of GDP) was associated with a decrease in SII of -2.468 [95% confidence intervals (CIs): -4.190, -0.746] and RII of -0.026 (95% CIs: -0.048, -0.004). Lower inequalities were associated with higher non-health government expenditure, but not higher government health expenditure. Associations with inequalities were non-significant for GDP, government redistribution, and private health expenditure. Understanding how non-health government expenditure reduces inequalities in IMR, and why health expenditures may not, will accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.

Breeding value accuracy estimates for growth traits using random regression and multi-trait models in Nelore cattle.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Baldi, F; Mercadante, M E Z; Lobo, R B; Pereira, R J; Albuquerque, L G

2011-06-28

We quantified the potential increase in accuracy of expected breeding value for weights of Nelore cattle, from birth to mature age, using multi-trait and random regression models on Legendre polynomials and B-spline functions. A total of 87,712 weight records from 8144 females were used, recorded every three months from birth to mature age from the Nelore Brazil Program. For random regression analyses, all female weight records from birth to eight years of age (data set I) were considered. From this general data set, a subset was created (data set II), which included only nine weight records: at birth, weaning, 365 and 550 days of age, and 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 years of age. Data set II was analyzed using random regression and multi-trait models. The model of analysis included the contemporary group as fixed effects and age of dam as a linear and quadratic covariable. In the random regression analyses, average growth trends were modeled using a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of age. Residual variances were modeled by a step function with five classes. Legendre polynomials of fourth and sixth order were utilized to model the direct genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, while third-order Legendre polynomials were considered for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. Quadratic polynomials were applied to model all random effects in random regression models on B-spline functions. Direct genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using three segments or five coefficients, and genetic maternal and maternal permanent environmental effects were modeled with one segment or three coefficients in the random regression models on B-spline functions. For both data sets (I and II), animals ranked differently according to expected breeding value obtained by random regression or multi-trait models. With random regression models, the highest gains in accuracy were obtained at ages with a low number of weight records. The results indicate that random regression models provide more accurate expected breeding values than the traditionally finite multi-trait models. Thus, higher genetic responses are expected for beef cattle growth traits by replacing a multi-trait model with random regression models for genetic evaluation. B-spline functions could be applied as an alternative to Legendre polynomials to model covariance functions for weights from birth to mature age.

Mixed models, linear dependency, and identification in age-period-cohort models.

PubMed

O'Brien, Robert M

2017-07-20

This paper examines the identification problem in age-period-cohort models that use either linear or categorically coded ages, periods, and cohorts or combinations of these parameterizations. These models are not identified using the traditional fixed effect regression model approach because of a linear dependency between the ages, periods, and cohorts. However, these models can be identified if the researcher introduces a single just identifying constraint on the model coefficients. The problem with such constraints is that the results can differ substantially depending on the constraint chosen. Somewhat surprisingly, age-period-cohort models that specify one or more of ages and/or periods and/or cohorts as random effects are identified. This is the case without introducing an additional constraint. I label this identification as statistical model identification and show how statistical model identification comes about in mixed models and why which effects are treated as fixed and which are treated as random can substantially change the estimates of the age, period, and cohort effects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models.

PubMed

Bignardi, A B; El Faro, L; Cardoso, V L; Machado, P F; Albuquerque, L G

2009-09-01

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Covariance functions for body weight from birth to maturity in Nellore cows.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Mercadante, M E Z; Forni, S; Lôbo, R B; Albuquerque, L G

2010-03-01

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance functions using random regression models on Legendre polynomials for the analysis of repeated measures of BW from birth to adult age. A total of 82,064 records from 8,145 females were analyzed. Different models were compared. The models included additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random terms. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of animal age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariables. Eight models with polynomials of third to sixth order were used to describe additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. Residual effects were modeled using 1 (i.e., assuming homogeneity of variances across all ages) or 5 age classes. The model with 5 classes was the best to describe the trajectory of residuals along the growth curve. The model including fourth- and sixth-order polynomials for additive direct and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, and third-order polynomials for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects were the best. Estimates of (co)variance obtained with the multi-trait and random regression models were similar. Direct heritability estimates obtained with the random regression models followed a trend similar to that obtained with the multi-trait model. The largest estimates of maternal heritability were those of BW taken close to 240 d of age. In general, estimates of correlation between BW from birth to 8 yr of age decreased with increasing distance between ages.

Accounting for individual differences and timing of events: estimating the effect of treatment on criminal convictions in heroin users

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The reduction of crime is an important outcome of opioid maintenance treatment (OMT). Criminal intensity and treatment regimes vary among OMT patients, but this is rarely adjusted for in statistical analyses, which tend to focus on cohort incidence rates and rate ratios. The purpose of this work was to estimate the relationship between treatment and criminal convictions among OMT patients, adjusting for individual covariate information and timing of events, fitting time-to-event regression models of increasing complexity. Methods National criminal records were cross linked with treatment data on 3221 patients starting OMT in Norway 1997–2003. In addition to calculating cohort incidence rates, criminal convictions was modelled as a recurrent event dependent variable, and treatment a time-dependent covariate, in Cox proportional hazards, Aalen’s additive hazards, and semi-parametric additive hazards regression models. Both fixed and dynamic covariates were included. Results During OMT, the number of days with criminal convictions for the cohort as a whole was 61% lower than when not in treatment. OMT was associated with reduced number of days with criminal convictions in all time-to-event regression models, but the hazard ratio (95% CI) was strongly attenuated when adjusting for covariates; from 0.40 (0.35, 0.45) in a univariate model to 0.79 (0.72, 0.87) in a fully adjusted model. The hazard was lower for females and decreasing with older age, while increasing with high numbers of criminal convictions prior to application to OMT (all p < 0.001). The strongest predictors were level of criminal activity prior to entering into OMT, and having a recent criminal conviction (both p < 0.001). The effect of several predictors was significantly time-varying with their effects diminishing over time. Conclusions Analyzing complex observational data regarding to fixed factors only overlooks important temporal information, and naïve cohort level incidence rates might result in biased estimates of the effect of interventions. Applying time-to-event regression models, properly adjusting for individual covariate information and timing of various events, allows for more precise and reliable effect estimates, as well as painting a more nuanced picture that can aid health care professionals and policy makers. PMID:24886472

Measuring the impact of energy consumption and air quality indicators on climate change: evidence from the panel of UNFCC classified countries.

PubMed

Ozturk, Ilhan

2015-10-01

This study examines the relationship between energy consumption, air pollution, and climate change in the panel of six economically diversified countries classified by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) as industrialized countries and economies in transition nations by using the panel econometric techniques for the period of 1990-2012. The results of pooled least square regression show that both the energy consumption and air quality indicators have a positive and significant relationship with the climate change, i.e., 1 % increase in energy consumption increases greenhouse gas emissions by 0.124 %, carbon dioxide emissions increase by 0.652 %, methane emissions increase by 0.123 %, and nitrous oxide emissions increase greenhouse gas emissions by 0.105 % age points. The results of fixed-effect regression and random-effect regression confirmed the deteriorating impact of air quality indicators on climate change; however, the results failed to show any significant association between energy consumption and climate change when absorbing country-specific shocks and time-variant shocks during the study time period.

The effect of child support enforcement on abortion in the United States.

PubMed

Crowley, Jocelyn E; Jagannathan, Radha; Falchettore, Galo

2012-01-01

This project aims to answer a critically important question of public policy: Does effective child support enforcement lead to a change in the incidence of abortion across the United States? Using state-level data collected from 1978–2003 from a variety of sources, we employ fixed effects regression analysis to examine whether financial security as measured by five types of child support enforcement effectiveness impacts abortion outcomes. We find that child support enforcement effectiveness decreases the incidence of abortion as measured by the abortion rate, but not the abortion ratio. Income transfer policies such as child support enforcement can affect certain fertility outcomes such as abortion rates across the states.

a Comparison Between Two Ols-Based Approaches to Estimating Urban Multifractal Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lin-Shan; Chen, Yan-Guang

Multifractal theory provides a new spatial analytical tool for urban studies, but many basic problems remain to be solved. Among various pending issues, the most significant one is how to obtain proper multifractal dimension spectrums. If an algorithm is improperly used, the parameter spectrums will be abnormal. This paper is devoted to investigating two ordinary least squares (OLS)-based approaches for estimating urban multifractal parameters. Using empirical study and comparative analysis, we demonstrate how to utilize the adequate linear regression to calculate multifractal parameters. The OLS regression analysis has two different approaches. One is that the intercept is fixed to zero, and the other is that the intercept is not limited. The results of comparative study show that the zero-intercept regression yields proper multifractal parameter spectrums within certain scale range of moment order, while the common regression method often leads to abnormal multifractal parameter values. A conclusion can be reached that fixing the intercept to zero is a more advisable regression method for multifractal parameters estimation, and the shapes of spectral curves and value ranges of fractal parameters can be employed to diagnose urban problems. This research is helpful for scientists to understand multifractal models and apply a more reasonable technique to multifractal parameter calculations.

Multivariate generalized hidden Markov regression models with random covariates: Physical exercise in an elderly population.

PubMed

Punzo, Antonio; Ingrassia, Salvatore; Maruotti, Antonello

2018-04-22

A time-varying latent variable model is proposed to jointly analyze multivariate mixed-support longitudinal data. The proposal can be viewed as an extension of hidden Markov regression models with fixed covariates (HMRMFCs), which is the state of the art for modelling longitudinal data, with a special focus on the underlying clustering structure. HMRMFCs are inadequate for applications in which a clustering structure can be identified in the distribution of the covariates, as the clustering is independent from the covariates distribution. Here, hidden Markov regression models with random covariates are introduced by explicitly specifying state-specific distributions for the covariates, with the aim of improving the recovering of the clusters in the data with respect to a fixed covariates paradigm. The hidden Markov regression models with random covariates class is defined focusing on the exponential family, in a generalized linear model framework. Model identifiability conditions are sketched, an expectation-maximization algorithm is outlined for parameter estimation, and various implementation and operational issues are discussed. Properties of the estimators of the regression coefficients, as well as of the hidden path parameters, are evaluated through simulation experiments and compared with those of HMRMFCs. The method is applied to physical activity data. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Prediction model of health workforce and beds in county hospitals of Hunan by multiple linear regression].

PubMed

Ling, Ru; Liu, Jiawang

2011-12-01

To construct prediction model for health workforce and hospital beds in county hospitals of Hunan by multiple linear regression. We surveyed 16 counties in Hunan with stratified random sampling according to uniform questionnaires,and multiple linear regression analysis with 20 quotas selected by literature view was done. Independent variables in the multiple linear regression model on medical personnels in county hospitals included the counties' urban residents' income, crude death rate, medical beds, business occupancy, professional equipment value, the number of devices valued above 10 000 yuan, fixed assets, long-term debt, medical income, medical expenses, outpatient and emergency visits, hospital visits, actual available bed days, and utilization rate of hospital beds. Independent variables in the multiple linear regression model on county hospital beds included the the population of aged 65 and above in the counties, disposable income of urban residents, medical personnel of medical institutions in county area, business occupancy, the total value of professional equipment, fixed assets, long-term debt, medical income, medical expenses, outpatient and emergency visits, hospital visits, actual available bed days, utilization rate of hospital beds, and length of hospitalization. The prediction model shows good explanatory and fitting, and may be used for short- and mid-term forecasting.

Linear regression analysis for comparing two measurers or methods of measurement: but which regression?

PubMed

Ludbrook, John

2010-07-01

1. There are two reasons for wanting to compare measurers or methods of measurement. One is to calibrate one method or measurer against another; the other is to detect bias. Fixed bias is present when one method gives higher (or lower) values across the whole range of measurement. Proportional bias is present when one method gives values that diverge progressively from those of the other. 2. Linear regression analysis is a popular method for comparing methods of measurement, but the familiar ordinary least squares (OLS) method is rarely acceptable. The OLS method requires that the x values are fixed by the design of the study, whereas it is usual that both y and x values are free to vary and are subject to error. In this case, special regression techniques must be used. 3. Clinical chemists favour techniques such as major axis regression ('Deming's method'), the Passing-Bablok method or the bivariate least median squares method. Other disciplines, such as allometry, astronomy, biology, econometrics, fisheries research, genetics, geology, physics and sports science, have their own preferences. 4. Many Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to try to decide which technique is best, but the results are almost uninterpretable. 5. I suggest that pharmacologists and physiologists should use ordinary least products regression analysis (geometric mean regression, reduced major axis regression): it is versatile, can be used for calibration or to detect bias and can be executed by hand-held calculator or by using the loss function in popular, general-purpose, statistical software.

Nursing home performance under case-mix reimbursement: responding to heavy-care incentives and market changes.

PubMed Central

Davis, M A; Freeman, J W; Kirby, E C

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of case mix-adjusted reimbursement policy and market factors on nursing home performance. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING: Data from Medicaid certification inspection surveys, Medicaid cost reports, and the Kentucky State Center for Health Statistics for the years 1989 and 1991, to examine changes in nursing home performance stemming from the adoption of case mix-adjusted reimbursement in 1990. STUDY DESIGN: In addition to cross-sectional regressions, a first-difference approach to fixed-effects regression analyses was employed to control for facility differences that were essentially fixed during the survey years and to estimate the effects of time-varying predictors on changes in facility expenditures, efficiency, and profitability. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Facilities that increased the proportion of Medicaid residents and eliminated excess capacity experienced higher profitability gains during the beginning phase of case-mix reimbursement. Having a heavy-care resident population was positively related to expenditures prior to reimbursement reform, and it was negatively related to expenditures after the case-mix reimbursement policy was introduced. While facility-level changes in case mix had no reliable influence on costs or profits, nursing homes showing an increased prevalence of poor-quality nursing practices exhibited increases in efficiency and profitability. At the market level, reductions in excess or empty nursing home beds were accompanied by a significant growth in home health services. Moreover, nursing homes located in markets with expanding home health services exhibited higher increases in costs per case-mix unit. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of the reimbursement system appear to reward a cost minimization orientation with potentially detrimental effects on quality of care. These effects, exacerbated by a supply-constrained market, may be mitigated by policies that encourage the expansion of home health service availability. PMID:9776938

Continuity of cannabis use and violent offending over the life course.

PubMed

Schoeler, T; Theobald, D; Pingault, J-B; Farrington, D P; Jennings, W G; Piquero, A R; Coid, J W; Bhattacharyya, S

2016-06-01

Although the association between cannabis use and violence has been reported in the literature, the precise nature of this relationship, especially the directionality of the association, is unclear. Young males from the Cambridge Study of Delinquent Development (n = 411) were followed up between the ages of 8 and 56 years to prospectively investigate the association between cannabis use and violence. A multi-wave (eight assessments, T1-T8) follow-up design was employed that allowed temporal sequencing of the variables of interest and the analysis of violent outcome measures obtained from two sources: (i) criminal records (violent conviction); and (ii) self-reports. A combination of analytic approaches allowing inferences as to the directionality of associations was employed, including multivariate logistic regression analysis, fixed-effects analysis and cross-lagged modelling. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that compared with never-users, continued exposure to cannabis (use at age 18, 32 and 48 years) was associated with a higher risk of subsequent violent behaviour, as indexed by convictions [odds ratio (OR) 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.19-23.59] or self-reports (OR 8.9, 95% CI 2.37-46.21). This effect persisted after controlling for other putative risk factors for violence. In predicting violence, fixed-effects analysis and cross-lagged modelling further indicated that this effect could not be explained by other unobserved time-invariant factors. Furthermore, these analyses uncovered a bi-directional relationship between cannabis use and violence. Together, these results provide strong indication that cannabis use predicts subsequent violent offending, suggesting a possible causal effect, and provide empirical evidence that may have implications for public policy.

Nursing home performance under case-mix reimbursement: responding to heavy-care incentives and market changes.

PubMed

Davis, M A; Freeman, J W; Kirby, E C

1998-10-01

To examine the effect of case mix-adjusted reimbursement policy and market factors on nursing home performance. Data from Medicaid certification inspection surveys, Medicaid cost reports, and the Kentucky State Center for Health Statistics for the years 1989 and 1991, to examine changes in nursing home performance stemming from the adoption of case mix-adjusted reimbursement in 1990. In addition to cross-sectional regressions, a first-difference approach to fixed-effects regression analyses was employed to control for facility differences that were essentially fixed during the survey years and to estimate the effects of time-varying predictors on changes in facility expenditures, efficiency, and profitability. Facilities that increased the proportion of Medicaid residents and eliminated excess capacity experienced higher profitability gains during the beginning phase of case-mix reimbursement. Having a heavy-care resident population was positively related to expenditures prior to reimbursement reform, and it was negatively related to expenditures after the case-mix reimbursement policy was introduced. While facility-level changes in case mix had no reliable influence on costs or profits, nursing homes showing an increased prevalence of poor-quality nursing practices exhibited increases in efficiency and profitability. At the market level, reductions in excess or empty nursing home beds were accompanied by a significant growth in home health services. Moreover, nursing homes located in markets with expanding home health services exhibited higher increases in costs per case-mix unit. Characteristics of the reimbursement system appear to reward a cost minimization orientation with potentially detrimental effects on quality of care. These effects, exacerbated by a supply-constrained market, may be mitigated by policies that encourage the expansion of home health service availability.

Night shift and rotating shift in association with sleep problems, burnout and minor mental disorder in male and female employees.

PubMed

Cheng, Wan-Ju; Cheng, Yawen

2017-07-01

Shift work is associated with adverse physical and psychological health outcomes. However, the independent health effects of night work and rotating shift on workers' sleep and mental health risks and the potential gender differences have not been fully evaluated. We used data from a nationwide survey of representative employees of Taiwan in 2013, consisting of 16 440 employees. Participants reported their work shift patterns 1 week prior to the survey, which were classified into the four following shift types: fixed day, rotating day, fixed night and rotating night shifts. Also obtained were self-reported sleep duration, presence of insomnia, burnout and mental disorder assessed by the Brief Symptom Rating Scale. Among all shift types, workers with fixed night shifts were found to have the shortest duration of sleep, highest level of burnout score, and highest prevalence of insomnia and minor mental disorders. Gender-stratified regression analyses with adjustment of age, education and psychosocial work conditions showed that both in male and female workers, fixed night shifts were associated with greater risks for short sleep duration (<7 hours per day) and insomnia. In female workers, fixed night shifts were also associated with increased risks for burnout and mental disorders, but after adjusting for insomnia, the associations between fixed night shifts and poor mental health were no longer significant. The findings of this study suggested that a fixed night shift was associated with greater risks for sleep and mental health problems, and the associations might be mediated by sleep disturbance. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Random regression models on Legendre polynomials to estimate genetic parameters for weights from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle.

PubMed

Baldi, F; Albuquerque, L G; Alencar, M M

2010-08-01

The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions for direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects, and subsequently, to derive relevant genetic parameters for growth traits in Canchim cattle. Data comprised 49,011 weight records on 2435 females from birth to adult age. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups (year and month of birth and at weighing) and age of dam as quadratic covariable. Mean trends were taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Residual variances were allowed to vary and were modelled by a step function with 1, 4 or 11 classes based on animal's age. The model fitting four classes of residual variances was the best. A total of 12 random regression models from second to seventh order were used to model direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. The model with direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects fitted by quadric, cubic, quintic and linear Legendre polynomials, respectively, was the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. Estimates of direct and maternal heritability obtained by multi-trait (seven traits) and random regression models were very similar. Selection for higher weight at any age, especially after weaning, will produce an increase in mature cow weight. The possibility to modify the growth curve in Canchim cattle to obtain animals with rapid growth at early ages and moderate to low mature cow weight is limited.

Predictors of postretention stability of mandibular dental arch dimensions in patients treated with a lip bumper during mixed dentition followed by fixed appliances.

PubMed

Raucci, Gaetana; Pachêco-Pereira, Camila; Elyasi, Maryam; d'Apuzzo, Fabrizia; Flores-Mir, Carlos; Perillo, Letizia

2017-03-01

To identify which dental and/or cephalometric variables were predictors of postretention mandibular dental arch stability in patients who underwent treatment with transpalatal arch and lip bumper during mixed dentition followed by full fixed appliances in the permanent dentition. Thirty-one patients were divided into stable and relapse groups based on the postretention presence or absence of relapse. Intercuspid, interpremolar, and intermolar widths; arch length and perimeter; crowding; and lower incisor proclination were evaluated before treatment (T0), after lip bumper treatment (T1), after fixed appliance treatment (T2), and a minimum of 3 years after removal of the full fixed appliance (T3). Logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the effect of changes between T0 and T1, as predictive variables, on the occurrence of relapse at T3. The model explained 53.5 % of the variance in treatment stability and correctly classified 80.6 % of the sample. Of the seven prediction variables, intermolar and interpremolar changes between T0 and T1 (P = .024 and P = .034, respectively) were statistically significant. For every millimeter of increase in intermolar and interpremolar widths there was a 1.52 and 2.70 times increase, respectively, in the odds of having stability. There was also weak evidence for the effect of sex (P = .047). The best predictors of an average 4-year postretention mandibular dental arch stability after treatment with a lip bumper followed by full fixed appliances were intermolar and interpremolar width increases during lip bumper therapy. The amount of relapse in this crowding could be considered clinically irrelevant.

Energy expenditure estimation during daily military routine with body-fixed sensors.

PubMed

Wyss, Thomas; Mäder, Urs

2011-05-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate an algorithm for estimating energy expenditure during the daily military routine on the basis of data collected using body-fixed sensors. First, 8 volunteers completed isolated physical activities according to an established protocol, and the resulting data were used to develop activity-class-specific multiple linear regressions for physical activity energy expenditure on the basis of hip acceleration, heart rate, and body mass as independent variables. Second, the validity of these linear regressions was tested during the daily military routine using indirect calorimetry (n = 12). Volunteers' mean estimated energy expenditure did not significantly differ from the energy expenditure measured with indirect calorimetry (p = 0.898, 95% confidence interval = -1.97 to 1.75 kJ/min). We conclude that the developed activity-class-specific multiple linear regressions applied to the acceleration and heart rate data allow estimation of energy expenditure in 1-minute intervals during daily military routine, with accuracy equal to indirect calorimetry.

Simulation of parametric model towards the fixed covariate of right censored lung cancer data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti; Asrul Affendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Ridwan Olaniran, Oyebayo; Enera Amran, Syahila

2017-09-01

In this study, simulation procedure was applied to measure the fixed covariate of right censored data by using parametric survival model. The scale and shape parameter were modified to differentiate the analysis of parametric regression survival model. Statistically, the biases, mean biases and the coverage probability were used in this analysis. Consequently, different sample sizes were employed to distinguish the impact of parametric regression model towards right censored data with 50, 100, 150 and 200 number of sample. R-statistical software was utilised to develop the coding simulation with right censored data. Besides, the final model of right censored simulation was compared with the right censored lung cancer data in Malaysia. It was found that different values of shape and scale parameter with different sample size, help to improve the simulation strategy for right censored data and Weibull regression survival model is suitable fit towards the simulation of survival of lung cancer patients data in Malaysia.

Restricted spatial regression in practice: Geostatistical models, confounding, and robustness under model misspecification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Schliep, Erin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.

2015-01-01

In spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs), covariates that are spatially smooth are often collinear with spatially smooth random effects. This phenomenon is known as spatial confounding and has been studied primarily in the case where the spatial support of the process being studied is discrete (e.g., areal spatial data). In this case, the most common approach suggested is restricted spatial regression (RSR) in which the spatial random effects are constrained to be orthogonal to the fixed effects. We consider spatial confounding and RSR in the geostatistical (continuous spatial support) setting. We show that RSR provides computational benefits relative to the confounded SGLMM, but that Bayesian credible intervals under RSR can be inappropriately narrow under model misspecification. We propose a posterior predictive approach to alleviating this potential problem and discuss the appropriateness of RSR in a variety of situations. We illustrate RSR and SGLMM approaches through simulation studies and an analysis of malaria frequencies in The Gambia, Africa.

Semiparametric time varying coefficient model for matched case-crossover studies.

PubMed

Ortega-Villa, Ana Maria; Kim, Inyoung; Kim, H

2017-03-15

In matched case-crossover studies, it is generally accepted that the covariates on which a case and associated controls are matched cannot exert a confounding effect on independent predictors included in the conditional logistic regression model. This is because any stratum effect is removed by the conditioning on the fixed number of sets of the case and controls in the stratum. Hence, the conditional logistic regression model is not able to detect any effects associated with the matching covariates by stratum. However, some matching covariates such as time often play an important role as an effect modification leading to incorrect statistical estimation and prediction. Therefore, we propose three approaches to evaluate effect modification by time. The first is a parametric approach, the second is a semiparametric penalized approach, and the third is a semiparametric Bayesian approach. Our parametric approach is a two-stage method, which uses conditional logistic regression in the first stage and then estimates polynomial regression in the second stage. Our semiparametric penalized and Bayesian approaches are one-stage approaches developed by using regression splines. Our semiparametric one stage approach allows us to not only detect the parametric relationship between the predictor and binary outcomes, but also evaluate nonparametric relationships between the predictor and time. We demonstrate the advantage of our semiparametric one-stage approaches using both a simulation study and an epidemiological example of a 1-4 bi-directional case-crossover study of childhood aseptic meningitis with drinking water turbidity. We also provide statistical inference for the semiparametric Bayesian approach using Bayes Factors. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Particulate air pollution and panel studies in children: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Ward, D; Ayres, J

2004-01-01

Aims: To systematically review the results of such studies in children, estimate summary measures of effect, and investigate potential sources of heterogeneity. Methods: Studies were identified by searching electronic databases to June 2002, including those where outcomes and particulate level measurements were made at least daily for ⩾8 weeks, and analysed using an appropriate regression model. Study results were compared using forest plots, and fixed and random effects summary effect estimates obtained. Publication bias was considered using a funnel plot. Results: Twenty two studies were identified, all except two reporting PM10 (24 hour mean) >50 µg.m-3. Reported effects of PM10 on PEF were widely spread and smaller than those for PM2.5 (fixed effects summary: -0.012 v -0.063 l.min-1 per µg.m-3 rise). A similar pattern was evident for symptoms. Random effects models produced larger estimates. Overall, in between-study comparisons, panels of children with diagnosed asthma or pre-existing respiratory symptoms appeared less affected by PM10 levels than those without, and effect estimates were larger where studies were conducted in higher ozone conditions. Larger PM10 effect estimates were obtained from studies using generalised estimating equations to model autocorrelation and where results were derived by pooling subject specific regression coefficients. A funnel plot of PM10 results for PEF was markedly asymmetrical. Conclusions: The majority of identified studies indicate an adverse effect of particulate air pollution that is greater for PM2.5 than PM10. However, results show considerable heterogeneity and there is evidence consistent with publication bias, so limited confidence may be placed on summary estimates of effect. The possibility of interaction between particle and ozone effects merits further investigation, as does variability due to analytical differences that alter the interpretation of final estimates. PMID:15031404

Genetic Parameter Estimates for Metabolizing Two Common Pharmaceuticals in Swine.

PubMed

Howard, Jeremy T; Ashwell, Melissa S; Baynes, Ronald E; Brooks, James D; Yeatts, James L; Maltecca, Christian

2018-01-01

In livestock, the regulation of drugs used to treat livestock has received increased attention and it is currently unknown how much of the phenotypic variation in drug metabolism is due to the genetics of an animal. Therefore, the objective of the study was to determine the amount of phenotypic variation in fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine drug metabolism due to genetics. The population consisted of crossbred female and castrated male nursery pigs ( n = 198) that were sired by boars represented by four breeds. The animals were spread across nine batches. Drugs were administered intravenously and blood collected a minimum of 10 times over a 48 h period. Genetic parameters for the parent drug and metabolite concentration within each drug were estimated based on pharmacokinetics (PK) parameters or concentrations across time utilizing a random regression model. The PK parameters were estimated using a non-compartmental analysis. The PK model included fixed effects of sex and breed of sire along with random sire and batch effects. The random regression model utilized Legendre polynomials and included a fixed population concentration curve, sex, and breed of sire effects along with a random sire deviation from the population curve and batch effect. The sire effect included the intercept for all models except for the fenbendazole metabolite (i.e., intercept and slope). The mean heritability across PK parameters for the fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine parent drug (metabolite) was 0.15 (0.18) and 0.31 (0.40), respectively. For the parent drug (metabolite), the mean heritability across time was 0.27 (0.60) and 0.14 (0.44) for fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine, respectively. The errors surrounding the heritability estimates for the random regression model were smaller compared to estimates obtained from PK parameters. Across both the PK and plasma drug concentration across model, a moderate heritability was estimated. The model that utilized the plasma drug concentration across time resulted in estimates with a smaller standard error compared to models that utilized PK parameters. The current study found a low to moderate proportion of the phenotypic variation in metabolizing fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine that was explained by genetics in the current study.

Genetic Parameter Estimates for Metabolizing Two Common Pharmaceuticals in Swine

PubMed Central

Howard, Jeremy T.; Ashwell, Melissa S.; Baynes, Ronald E.; Brooks, James D.; Yeatts, James L.; Maltecca, Christian

2018-01-01

In livestock, the regulation of drugs used to treat livestock has received increased attention and it is currently unknown how much of the phenotypic variation in drug metabolism is due to the genetics of an animal. Therefore, the objective of the study was to determine the amount of phenotypic variation in fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine drug metabolism due to genetics. The population consisted of crossbred female and castrated male nursery pigs (n = 198) that were sired by boars represented by four breeds. The animals were spread across nine batches. Drugs were administered intravenously and blood collected a minimum of 10 times over a 48 h period. Genetic parameters for the parent drug and metabolite concentration within each drug were estimated based on pharmacokinetics (PK) parameters or concentrations across time utilizing a random regression model. The PK parameters were estimated using a non-compartmental analysis. The PK model included fixed effects of sex and breed of sire along with random sire and batch effects. The random regression model utilized Legendre polynomials and included a fixed population concentration curve, sex, and breed of sire effects along with a random sire deviation from the population curve and batch effect. The sire effect included the intercept for all models except for the fenbendazole metabolite (i.e., intercept and slope). The mean heritability across PK parameters for the fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine parent drug (metabolite) was 0.15 (0.18) and 0.31 (0.40), respectively. For the parent drug (metabolite), the mean heritability across time was 0.27 (0.60) and 0.14 (0.44) for fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine, respectively. The errors surrounding the heritability estimates for the random regression model were smaller compared to estimates obtained from PK parameters. Across both the PK and plasma drug concentration across model, a moderate heritability was estimated. The model that utilized the plasma drug concentration across time resulted in estimates with a smaller standard error compared to models that utilized PK parameters. The current study found a low to moderate proportion of the phenotypic variation in metabolizing fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine that was explained by genetics in the current study. PMID:29487615

Determinants of information technology outsourcing among health maintenance organizations.

PubMed

Wholey, D R; Padman, R; Hamer, R; Schwartz, S

2001-09-01

We analyze the determinants of HMO information technology outsourcing using two studies. Study 1 examines the effect of asset specificity on outsourcing for development and operation activities, using HMO specific fixed effects to control for differences between HMOs. Study 2 regresses the HMO specific fixed effects from Study 1, which measure an HMO's propensity to outsource, on HMO characteristics. The data comes from a 1995 InterStudy survey about information technology organization of HMOs. While HMOs split roughly equally in outsourcing information technology development activities, they are extremely unlikely to outsource the day-to-day operation of information systems. The greater an HMO's information technology capability and the complexity of information systems supported, the less likely is an HMO to outsource. While HMOs less than two years old, for-profit HMOs, local or Blue Cross-affiliated HMOs, and mixed HMOs are more likely to outsource, federally qualified HMOs are less likely to outsource. Policy and managerial implications for the adoption and diffusion of new ways of organizing information technology, such as application service providers (ASPs), are discussed.

Body mass index, blood pressure, and glucose and lipid metabolism among permanent and fixed-term workers in the manufacturing industry: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Inoue, Mariko; Minami, Masahide; Yano, Eiji

2014-02-27

Temporary employment, a precarious form of employment, is recognized as social determinant of poor health. However, evidence supporting precarious employment as a risk factor for health is mainly obtained from subjective data. Studies using objective clinical measurement data in the assessment of health status are limited. This study compared body mass index (BMI), lipid and glucose metabolism, and health-related lifestyle factors between permanent workers and fixed-term workers employed in the manufacturing industry. Data of 1,701 male manufacturing industry workers <50 years old in Japan were collected and analyzed. Anthropometric data were BMI, calculated using measured height and weight of study participants, and blood pressure. For lipid metabolism, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglyceride levels were determined. For glucose metabolism, fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels were measured. Multiple regression analysis adjusted for age and lifestyle factors was performed. BMI was significantly higher in permanent workers (22.9 kg/m2) compared with fixed-term workers (22.4 kg/m2). The leaner population (BMI < 18.5) was greater among fixed-term workers (8.3%) compared with permanent workers (4.0%), whereas the overweight population (BMI ≥ 25.0) was greater among permanent workers (21.4%) compared with fixed-term workers (18.1%). Although fixed-term workers tended not to be overweight, regression analysis adjusted for age and lifestyle factors suggested that fixed-term employment was significantly associated with higher blood pressure (systolic β = 2.120, diastolic β = 2.793), triglyceride (β = 11.147), fasting blood glucose (β = 2.218), and HbA1c (β = 0.107) compared with permanent workers (all p < 0.01). Fixed-term workers showed more health risks, such as poorer blood pressure and lipid and glucose metabolism, even when adjusted for age and lifestyle variables, although BMI of fixed-term workers were lower than permanent workers. Precarious work might contribute to a deteriorating health status even among less overweight populations.

Modeling the safety impacts of driving hours and rest breaks on truck drivers considering time-dependent covariates.

PubMed

Chen, Chen; Xie, Yuanchang

2014-12-01

Driving hours and rest breaks are closely related to driver fatigue, which is a major contributor to truck crashes. This study investigates the effects of driving hours and rest breaks on commercial truck driver safety. A discrete-time logistic regression model is used to evaluate the crash odds ratios of driving hours and rest breaks. Driving time is divided into 11 one hour intervals. These intervals and rest breaks are modeled as dummy variables. In addition, a Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent covariates is used to assess the transient effects of rest breaks, which consists of a fixed effect and a variable effect. Data collected from two national truckload carriers in 2009 and 2010 are used. The discrete-time logistic regression result indicates that only the crash odds ratio of the 11th driving hour is statistically significant. Taking one, two, and three rest breaks can reduce drivers' crash odds by 68%, 83%, and 85%, respectively, compared to drivers who did not take any rest breaks. The Cox regression result shows clear transient effects for rest breaks. It also suggests that drivers may need some time to adjust themselves to normal driving tasks after a rest break. Overall, the third rest break's safety benefit is very limited based on the results of both models. The findings of this research can help policy makers better understand the impact of driving time and rest breaks and develop more effective rules to improve commercial truck safety. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association of Birth Order with Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Young Adulthood: A Study of One Million Swedish Men

PubMed Central

Jelenkovic, Aline; Silventoinen, Karri; Tynelius, Per; Myrskylä, Mikko; Rasmussen, Finn

2013-01-01

Background Birth order has been suggested to be linked to several cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, but the evidence is still inconsistent. We aim to determine the associations of birth order with body mass index (BMI), muscle strength and blood pressure. Further we will analyse whether these relationships are affected by family characteristics. Methods BMI, elbow flexion, hand grip and knee extension strength and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured at conscription examination in 1 065 710 Swedish young men born between 1951 and 1975. The data were analysed using linear multivariate and fixed effects regression models; the latter compare siblings and account for genetic and social factors shared by brothers. Results Fixed effect regression analysis showed that birth order was inversely associated with BMI: second and third born had 0.8% and 1.1% (p<0.001) lower BMI than first-born, respectively. The association pattern differed among muscle strengths. After adjustment for BMI, first-born presented lower elbow flexion and hand grip strength than second-born (−5.9 N and −3.8 N, respectively, p<0.001). Knee extension strength was inversely related to birth order though not always significantly. The association between birth order and blood pressure was not significant. Conclusions Birth order is negatively associated with BMI and knee extension strength, positively with elbow flexion and hand grip strength, and is not associated with blood pressure among young men. Although the effects are small, the link between birth order and some CVD risk factors is already detectable in young adulthood. PMID:23696817

The association between height and birth order: evidence from 652,518 Swedish men.

PubMed

Myrskylä, Mikko; Silventoinen, Karri; Jelenkovic, Aline; Tynelius, Per; Rasmussen, Finn

2013-07-01

Birth order is associated with outcomes such as birth weight and adult socioeconomic position (SEP), but little is known about the association with adult height. This potential birth order-height association is important because height predicts health, and because the association may help explain population-level height trends. We studied the birth order-height association and whether it varies by family characteristics or birth cohort. We used the Swedish Military Conscription Register to analyse adult height among 652,518 men born in 1951-1983 using fixed effects regression models that compare brothers and account for genetic and social factors shared by brothers. We stratified the analysis by family size, parental SEP and birth cohort. We compared models with and without birth weight and birth length controls. Unadjusted analyses showed no differences between the first two birth orders but in the fixed effects regression, birth orders 2, 3 and 4 were associated with 0.4, 0.7 and 0.8 cm (p<0.001 for each) shorter height than birth order 1, respectively. The associations were similar in large and small and high-SEP and low-SEP families, but were attenuated in recent cohorts. Birth characteristics did not explain these associations. Birth order is an important determinant of height. The height difference between birth orders 3 and 1 is larger than the population-level height increase achieved over 10 years. The attenuation of the effect over cohorts may reflect improvements in living standards. Decreases in family size may explain some of the secular-height increases in countries with decreasing fertility.

Association of birth order with cardiovascular disease risk factors in young adulthood: a study of one million Swedish men.

PubMed

Jelenkovic, Aline; Silventoinen, Karri; Tynelius, Per; Myrskylä, Mikko; Rasmussen, Finn

2013-01-01

Birth order has been suggested to be linked to several cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, but the evidence is still inconsistent. We aim to determine the associations of birth order with body mass index (BMI), muscle strength and blood pressure. Further we will analyse whether these relationships are affected by family characteristics. BMI, elbow flexion, hand grip and knee extension strength and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured at conscription examination in 1,065,710 Swedish young men born between 1951 and 1975. The data were analysed using linear multivariate and fixed effects regression models; the latter compare siblings and account for genetic and social factors shared by brothers. Fixed effect regression analysis showed that birth order was inversely associated with BMI: second and third born had 0.8% and 1.1% (p<0.001) lower BMI than first-born, respectively. The association pattern differed among muscle strengths. After adjustment for BMI, first-born presented lower elbow flexion and hand grip strength than second-born (-5.9 N and -3.8 N, respectively, p<0.001). Knee extension strength was inversely related to birth order though not always significantly. The association between birth order and blood pressure was not significant. Birth order is negatively associated with BMI and knee extension strength, positively with elbow flexion and hand grip strength, and is not associated with blood pressure among young men. Although the effects are small, the link between birth order and some CVD risk factors is already detectable in young adulthood.

A Comparison of Mobile and Fixed Device Access on User Engagement Associated With Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Online Nutrition Education.

PubMed

Brusk, John J; Bensley, Robert J

2016-11-15

Online health education has expanded its reach due to cost-effective implementation and demonstrated effectiveness. However, a limitation exists with the evaluation of online health education implementations and how the impact of the system is attenuated by the extent to which a user engages with it. Moreover, the current online health education research does not consider how this engagement has been affected by the transition from fixed to mobile user access over the last decade. This paper focuses on comparing the impact mobile versus fixed devices have on user engagement key performance indicators (KPI) associated with the wichealth website (.org), an Internet-based parent-child feeding intervention offered to clients associated with the US Department of Agriculture's Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Data were collected from 612,201 nutrition education lessons completed by 305,735 unique WIC participants in 21 states over a 1-year period. Data consisted of system-collected measures, profile items, and items from an exit survey administered at the conclusion of each lesson. User engagement was defined based on 3 KPIs associated with usage of the wichealth website: number of link views, link view time, and progression in stage of readiness to change. Independent samples t tests were used to compare KPIs between fixed only and mobile only device users and paired samples t tests were used to compare KPIs within users who completed at least one lesson each on both a fixed and mobile device. A logistic regression was performed to estimate the odds of KPI performance thresholds in the independent samples study group given access device type while controlling for confounding of user characteristics associated with these KPIs. Analysis of 8 user characteristics (lessons completed, race, ethnicity, language, state of residence, pregnancy status, beginning stage of change, and preferred nutrition education method) were significantly (P<.001) related to various KPI differences between mobile and fixed device access. Non-mobile users were significantly (P<.001) more likely to engage based on all 3 KPIs, even after logistic regression control for the potential confounding related to the strongly associated user characteristics identified. The findings of this study support the idea that online health education developers need to seriously consider access device when creating programs. Online health education developers need to take extra effort to truly understand access patterns of populations being served, and whether or not access device will influence user engagement performance indicators. ©John J Brusk, Robert J Bensley. Originally published in JMIR Research Protocols (http://www.researchprotocols.org), 15.11.2016.

Blending Multiple Nitrogen Dioxide Data Sources for Neighborhood Estimates of Long-Term Exposure for Health Research.

PubMed

Hanigan, Ivan C; Williamson, Grant J; Knibbs, Luke D; Horsley, Joshua; Rolfe, Margaret I; Cope, Martin; Barnett, Adrian G; Cowie, Christine T; Heyworth, Jane S; Serre, Marc L; Jalaludin, Bin; Morgan, Geoffrey G

2017-11-07

Exposure to traffic related nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) air pollution is associated with adverse health outcomes. Average pollutant concentrations for fixed monitoring sites are often used to estimate exposures for health studies, however these can be imprecise due to difficulty and cost of spatial modeling at the resolution of neighborhoods (e.g., a scale of tens of meters) rather than at a coarse scale (around several kilometers). The objective of this study was to derive improved estimates of neighborhood NO 2 concentrations by blending measurements with modeled predictions in Sydney, Australia (a low pollution environment). We implemented the Bayesian maximum entropy approach to blend data with uncertainty defined using informative priors. We compiled NO 2 data from fixed-site monitors, chemical transport models, and satellite-based land use regression models to estimate neighborhood annual average NO 2 . The spatial model produced a posterior probability density function of estimated annual average concentrations that spanned an order of magnitude from 3 to 35 ppb. Validation using independent data showed improvement, with root mean squared error improvement of 6% compared with the land use regression model and 16% over the chemical transport model. These estimates will be used in studies of health effects and should minimize misclassification bias.

Efficacy of a new sealant to prevent white spot lesions during fixed orthodontic treatment : A 12-month, single-center, randomized controlled clinical trial.

PubMed

Hammad, Shaza M; Knösel, Michael

2016-11-01

White spot lesions (WSLs) are an undesirable side effect of fixed orthodontic appliance therapy and are reported to occur in 2-96 % of orthodontic patients. In this study, the efficacy of a new sealant to prevent WSLs during fixed orthodontic treatment was compared to a control group that did not receive sealant. For this 2-arm parallel-group randomized trial, 50 subjects aged 12-18 years (mean age 14.57 ± 2.04 years) were recruited from the orthodontics department at Mansoura University, Egypt. Eligibility criteria were no restorations, no active WSLs or caries, and adequate oral hygiene. Subjects were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to one of the two arms prior to undergoing fixed orthodontic treatment, namely a single application of SeLECT Defense™ sealant during the bracketing appointment or no sealant (control arm). Instructions and dentifrices for local home fluoridation regimen were identical in both groups. Oral hygiene was assessed using the Approximal Plaque Index (API) at specified time intervals. Dental photographs were taken for blinded WSLs assessment; inter- and intra-operator error were also calculated. Categorical data were tested using the χ 2 test, and a logistic regression model was adopted to detect associations between decalcification (WSLs), sealant application, and oral hygiene status. Only excellent or good oral hygiene were independent prognostic factors for preventing severe WSLs (p = 0.035). No significant effect on caries incidence was observed for the sealant. In combination with adequate oral hygiene SeLECT Defense™ helps to reduced the frequency of WSLs. However, the sealat showed no significant effect as sole preventive strategy.

Gingival enlargement in orthodontic patients: Effect of treatment duration.

PubMed

Pinto, Alice Souza; Alves, Luana Severo; Zenkner, Júlio Eduardo do Amaral; Zanatta, Fabrício Batistin; Maltz, Marisa

2017-10-01

In this study, we aimed to assess the effect of the duration of fixed orthodontic treatment on gingival enlargement (GE) in adolescents and young adults. The sample consisted of 260 subjects (ages, 10-30 years) divided into 4 groups: patients with no fixed orthodontic appliances (G0) and patients undergoing orthodontic treatment for 1 year (G1), 2 years (G2), or 3 years (G3). Participants completed a structured questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics and oral hygiene habits. Clinical examinations were conducted by a calibrated examiner and included the plaque index, the gingival index, and the Seymour index. Poisson regression models were used to assess the association between group and GE. We observed increasing means of plaque, gingivitis, and GE in G0, G1, and G2. No significant differences were observed between G2 and G3. Adjusted Poisson regression analysis showed that patients undergoing orthodontic treatment had a 20 to 28-fold increased risk for GE than did those without orthodontic appliances (G1, rate ratio [RR] = 20.2, 95% CI = 9.0-45.3; G2, RR = 27.0, 95% CI = 12.1-60.3; G3 = 28.1; 95% CI = 12.6-62.5). The duration of orthodontic treatment significantly influenced the occurrence of GE. Oral hygiene instructions and motivational activities should target adolescents and young adults undergoing orthodontic treatment. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in order to provide robust estimates of bias and precision for constructing confidence intervals for new patients. Assumptions of linearity and non-proportional bias should be assessed thoroughly.

Adaptive local linear regression with application to printer color management.

PubMed

Gupta, Maya R; Garcia, Eric K; Chin, Erika

2008-06-01

Local learning methods, such as local linear regression and nearest neighbor classifiers, base estimates on nearby training samples, neighbors. Usually, the number of neighbors used in estimation is fixed to be a global "optimal" value, chosen by cross validation. This paper proposes adapting the number of neighbors used for estimation to the local geometry of the data, without need for cross validation. The term enclosing neighborhood is introduced to describe a set of neighbors whose convex hull contains the test point when possible. It is proven that enclosing neighborhoods yield bounded estimation variance under some assumptions. Three such enclosing neighborhood definitions are presented: natural neighbors, natural neighbors inclusive, and enclosing k-NN. The effectiveness of these neighborhood definitions with local linear regression is tested for estimating lookup tables for color management. Significant improvements in error metrics are shown, indicating that enclosing neighborhoods may be a promising adaptive neighborhood definition for other local learning tasks as well, depending on the density of training samples.

Automated time series forecasting for biosurveillance.

PubMed

Burkom, Howard S; Murphy, Sean Patrick; Shmueli, Galit

2007-09-30

For robust detection performance, traditional control chart monitoring for biosurveillance is based on input data free of trends, day-of-week effects, and other systematic behaviour. Time series forecasting methods may be used to remove this behaviour by subtracting forecasts from observations to form residuals for algorithmic input. We describe three forecast methods and compare their predictive accuracy on each of 16 authentic syndromic data streams. The methods are (1) a non-adaptive regression model using a long historical baseline, (2) an adaptive regression model with a shorter, sliding baseline, and (3) the Holt-Winters method for generalized exponential smoothing. Criteria for comparing the forecasts were the root-mean-square error, the median absolute per cent error (MedAPE), and the median absolute deviation. The median-based criteria showed best overall performance for the Holt-Winters method. The MedAPE measures over the 16 test series averaged 16.5, 11.6, and 9.7 for the non-adaptive regression, adaptive regression, and Holt-Winters methods, respectively. The non-adaptive regression forecasts were degraded by changes in the data behaviour in the fixed baseline period used to compute model coefficients. The mean-based criterion was less conclusive because of the effects of poor forecasts on a small number of calendar holidays. The Holt-Winters method was also most effective at removing serial autocorrelation, with most 1-day-lag autocorrelation coefficients below 0.15. The forecast methods were compared without tuning them to the behaviour of individual series. We achieved improved predictions with such tuning of the Holt-Winters method, but practical use of such improvements for routine surveillance will require reliable data classification methods.

Lipid profile changes after pomegranate consumption: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Sahebkar, Amirhossein; Simental-Mendía, Luis E; Giorgini, Paolo; Ferri, Claudio; Grassi, Davide

2016-10-15

Transport of oxidized low-density lipoprotein across the endothelium into the artery wall is considered a fundamental priming step for the atherosclerotic process. Recent studies reported potential therapeutic effects of micronutrients found in natural products, indicating positive applications for controlling the pathogenesis of chronic cardiovascular disease driven by cardiovascular risk factors and oxidative stress. A particular attention has been recently addressed to pomegranate; however findings of clinical studies have been contrasting. To evaluate the effects of pomegranate consumption on plasma lipid concentrations through a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The study was designed according to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis (PRISMA) statement. Scopus and Medline databases were searched to identify randomized placebo-controlled trials investigating the impact of pomegranate on plasma lipid concentrations. A fixed-effects model and the generic inverse variance method were used for quantitative data synthesis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using the one-study remove approach. Random-effects meta-regression was performed to assess the impact of potential confounders on the estimated effect sizes. A total of 545 individuals were recruited from the 12 RCTs. Fixed-effect meta-analysis of data from 12 RCTs (13 treatment arms) did not show any significant effect of pomegranate consumption on plasma lipid concentrations. The results of meta-regression did not suggest any significant association between duration of supplementation and impact of pomegranate on total cholesterol and HDL-C, while an inverse association was found with changes in triglycerides levels (slope: -1.07; 95% CI: -2.03 to -0.11; p = 0.029). There was no association between the amount of pomegranate juice consumed per day and respective changes in plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C, HDL-C and triglycerides. The present meta-analysis of RCTs did not suggest any effect of pomegranate consumption on lipid profile in human. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Can the provision of a home help service for the elderly population reduce the incidence of fall-related injuries? A quasi-experimental study of the community-level effects on hospital admissions in Swedish municipalities.

PubMed

Bonander, Carl; Gustavsson, Johanna; Nilson, Finn

2016-12-01

Fall-related injuries are a global public health problem, especially in elderly populations. The effect of an intervention aimed at reducing the risk of falls in the homes of community-dwelling elderly persons was evaluated. The intervention mainly involves the performance of complicated tasks and hazards assessment by a trained assessor, and has been adopted gradually over the last decade by 191 of 290 Swedish municipalities. A quasi-experimental design was used where intention-to-treat effect estimates were derived using panel regression analysis and a regression discontinuity (RD) design. The outcome measure was the incidence of fall-related hospitalisations in the treatment population, the age of which varied by municipality (≥65 years, ≥67 years, ≥70 years or ≥75 years). We found no statistically significant reductions in injury incidence in the panel regression (IRR 1.01 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.05)) or RD (IRR 1.00 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.03)) analyses. The results are robust to several different model specifications, including segmented panel regression analysis with linear trend change and community fixed effects parameters. It is unclear whether the absence of an effect is due to a low efficacy of the services provided, or a result of low adherence. Additional studies of the effects on other quality-of-life measures are recommended before conclusions are drawn regarding the cost-effectiveness of the provision of home help service programmes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Nursing home prices and market structure: the effect of assisted living industry expansion.

PubMed

Bowblis, John R

2014-01-01

Since the 1990s, there has been substantial expansion of facility-based alternatives to nursing home care, such as assisted living facilities. This paper analyzes the relationship between expansion of the assisted living industry, nursing home market structure and nursing home private pay prices using a two-year panel of nursing homes in the State of Ohio. Fixed effect regressions suggest that the expansion of assisted living facilities are associated with increased nursing home concentration, but find no effect on private pay nursing home prices. This would be consistent with assisted livings reducing demand for nursing homes by delaying entry into a nursing home, though assisted livings are not direct competitors of nursing homes.

Socio-Economic Factors Influencing on Total Fertility Rate in Iran: A Panel Data Analysis for the Period of 2002–2012

PubMed Central

Jafari, Hasan; Jaafaripooyan, Ebrahim; Vedadhir, Abou Ali; Foroushani, Abbas Rahimi; Ahadinejad, Bahman; Pourreza, Abolghasem

2016-01-01

Introduction Over the last few decades, total fertility rate (TFR) has followed a downward trend in Iran. The consequences of this trend from the perspectives of some are negative. Considering the macro-population policies in recent years, this study aimed to examine the effect of some macro socio-economic variables, including divorce, marriage, urbanization, and unemployment rate on TFR in Iran from 2002 to 2012. Methods This time series research was conducted in 2015 using the databases of the National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR) and the Statistical Center of Iran. The study population was the related data of provinces in the selected variables. The main methods used in the research were the common unit root test, Pedroni Cointegration test, redundant fixed effects tests, correlated random effects-Hausman test, and panel least squares of fixed effects. In order to determine the suitable model for estimating panel data, likelihood ratio and Huasman tests were done using Eviews software, and the fixed effects regression model was chosen as the dominant model. Results The results indicated that the divorce rate had a negative and significant effect on TFR (p < 0.05). A positive and significant relationship between marriage rate and TFR variables also was observed (p < 0.05). Urbanization rate (p = 0.24) and unemployment rate (p = 0.36) had no significant relationship with TFR. According to F statistic, significance of the overall model also was confirmed (p < 0.001). Conclusion Due to the lower effect of the studied factors on the reduction of TFR, it seems that variables other than the ones studied, as well as cultural factors and values, might be fundamental factors for this change in the country. PMID:27504172

Imaging Determinants of Clinical Effectiveness of Lumbar Transforaminal Epidural Steroid Injections.

PubMed

Maus, Timothy P; El-Yahchouchi, Christine A; Geske, Jennifer R; Carter, Rickey E; Kaufmann, Timothy J; Wald, John T; Diehn, Felix E

2016-12-01

To examine associations between imaging characteristics of compressive lesions and patient outcomes after lumbar transforaminal epidural steroid injections (TFESIs) stratified by steroid formulation (solution versus suspension). Retrospective observational study, academic radiology practice. A 516-patient sample was selected from 2,634 consecutive patients receiving lumbar TFESI for radicular pain. The advanced imaging study(s) preceding sampled TFESI were reviewed. Compressive lesions were described by a) nature of the lesion [disc herniation, fixed stenosis, synovial cyst, epidural fibrosis, no lesion] b) degree of neural compression [4 part scale], and c) presence of a tandem lesion. Associations between 2-month categorical outcomes (responder rates for pain, functional recovery) and imaging characteristics, stratified by steroid formulation, were examined with chi-squared tests of categorical outcomes and multivariable logistic regression models. Disc herniation patients had more responders for functional recovery than patients with fixed lesions (54% versus 38%, P = 0.01). Patients with fixed lesions receiving steroid solution (dexamethasone) had more responders for pain relief, with a similar trend for functional recovery, than patients receiving suspensions (59% versus 40%, P = 0.01). Outcomes for patients with fixed lesions treated with dexamethasone were not statistically different from those for disc herniation patients. Patients with single compressive lesions had more responders than those with tandem lesions (55% versus 41%, P = 0.03). In the entire sample, outcomes for disc herniations were more favorable than for fixed lesions. However, fixed lesions treated with dexamethasone had outcomes indistinguishable from disc herniations. Single lesions had better outcomes than tandem lesions. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison of random regression test-day models for Polish Black and White cattle.

PubMed

Strabel, T; Szyda, J; Ptak, E; Jamrozik, J

2005-10-01

Test-day milk yields of first-lactation Black and White cows were used to select the model for routine genetic evaluation of dairy cattle in Poland. The population of Polish Black and White cows is characterized by small herd size, low level of production, and relatively early peak of lactation. Several random regression models for first-lactation milk yield were initially compared using the "percentage of squared bias" criterion and the correlations between true and predicted breeding values. Models with random herd-test-date effects, fixed age-season and herd-year curves, and random additive genetic and permanent environmental curves (Legendre polynomials of different orders were used for all regressions) were chosen for further studies. Additional comparisons included analyses of the residuals and shapes of variance curves in days in milk. The low production level and early peak of lactation of the breed required the use of Legendre polynomials of order 5 to describe age-season lactation curves. For the other curves, Legendre polynomials of order 3 satisfactorily described daily milk yield variation. Fitting third-order polynomials for the permanent environmental effect made it possible to adequately account for heterogeneous residual variance at different stages of lactation.

Oil Extraction and Indigenous Livelihoods in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

PubMed Central

Bozigar, Matthew; Gray, Clark L.; Bilsborrow, Richard E.

2015-01-01

Globally, the extraction of minerals and fossil fuels is increasingly penetrating into isolated regions inhabited by indigenous peoples, potentially undermining their livelihoods and well-being. To provide new insight to this issue, we draw on a unique longitudinal dataset collected in the Ecuadorian Amazon over an 11-year period from 484 indigenous households with varying degrees of exposure to oil extraction. Fixed and random effects regression models of the consequences of oil activities for livelihood outcomes reveal mixed and multidimensional effects. These results challenge common assumptions about these processes and are only partly consistent with hypotheses drawn from the Dutch disease literature. PMID:26543302

HMO Penetration, Hospital Competition, and Growth of Ambulatory Surgery Centers

PubMed Central

Bian, John; Morrisey, Michael A.

2006-01-01

Using metropolitan statistical area (MSA) panel data from 1992-2001 constructed from the 2002 Medicare Online Survey Certification and Reporting (OSCAR) System, we estimate the market effects of health maintenance organization (HMO) penetration and hospital competition on the growth of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs). Our regression models with MSA and year fixed effects suggest that a 10-percentage-point increase in HMO penetration is associated with a decrease of 3 ASCs per 1 million population. A decrease from 5 to 4 equal-market-shared hospitals in a market is associated with an increase of 2.5 ASCs per 1 million population. PMID:17290661

HMO penetration, hospital competition, and growth of ambulatory surgery centers.

PubMed

Bian, John; Morrisey, Michael A

2006-01-01

Using metropolitan statistical area (MSA) panel data from 1992-2001 constructed from the 2002 Medicare Online Survey Certification and Reporting (OSCAR) System, we estimate the market effects of health maintenance organization (HMO) penetration and hospital competition on the growth of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs). Our regression models with MSA and year fixed effects suggest that a 10-percentage-point increase in HMO penetration is associated with a decrease of 3 ASCs per 1 million population. A decrease from 5 to 4 equal-market-shared hospitals in a market is associated with an increase of 2.5 ASCs per 1 million population.

The association of parental education with childhood undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries: comparing the role of paternal and maternal education.

PubMed

Vollmer, Sebastian; Bommer, Christian; Krishna, Aditi; Harttgen, Kenneth; Subramanian, S V

2017-02-01

Most existing research on the association of parental education with childhood undernutrition focuses on maternal education and often ignores paternal education. We systematically investigate differences in maternal and paternal education and their association with childhood undernutrition. One hundred and eighty Demographic and Health Surveys from 62 countries performed between 1990 and 2014 were analysed. We used linear-probability models to predict childhood undernutrition prevalences, measured as stunting, underweight and wasting, for all combinations of maternal and paternal attainment in school. Models were adjusted for demographic and socio-economic covariates for the child, mother and household, country-level fixed effects and clustering. Additional specifications adjust for local area characteristics instead of country fixed effects. Both higher maternal and paternal education levels are associated with lower childhood undernutrition. In regressions adjusted for child age and sex as well as country-level fixed effects, the association is stronger for maternal education than for paternal education when their combined level of education is held constant. In the fully adjusted models, the observed differences in predicted undernutrition prevalences are strongly attenuated, suggesting a similar importance of maternal and paternal education. These findings are confirmed by the analysis of composite schooling indicators. We find that paternal education is similarly important for reducing childhood undernutrition as maternal education and should therefore receive increased attention in the literature. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

The association of parental education with childhood undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries: comparing the role of paternal and maternal education

PubMed Central

Vollmer, Sebastian; Bommer, Christian; Krishna, Aditi; Harttgen, Kenneth; Subramanian, SV

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Most existing research on the association of parental education with childhood undernutrition focuses on maternal education and often ignores paternal education. We systematically investigate differences in maternal and paternal education and their association with childhood undernutrition. Methods: One hundred and eighty Demographic and Health Surveys from 62 countries performed between 1990 and 2014 were analysed. We used linear-probability models to predict childhood undernutrition prevalences, measured as stunting, underweight and wasting, for all combinations of maternal and paternal attainment in school. Models were adjusted for demographic and socio-economic covariates for the child, mother and household, country-level fixed effects and clustering. Additional specifications adjust for local area characteristics instead of country fixed effects. Results: Both higher maternal and paternal education levels are associated with lower childhood undernutrition. In regressions adjusted for child age and sex as well as country-level fixed effects, the association is stronger for maternal education than for paternal education when their combined level of education is held constant. In the fully adjusted models, the observed differences in predicted undernutrition prevalences are strongly attenuated, suggesting a similar importance of maternal and paternal education. These findings are confirmed by the analysis of composite schooling indicators. Conclusions: We find that paternal education is similarly important for reducing childhood undernutrition as maternal education and should therefore receive increased attention in the literature. PMID:27501820

Is Exposure to Income Inequality a Public Health Concern? Lagged Effects of Income Inequality on Individual and Population Health

PubMed Central

Mellor, Jennifer M; Milyo, Jeffrey

2003-01-01

Objective To examine the health consequences of exposure to income inequality. Data Sources Secondary analysis employing data from several publicly available sources. Measures of individual health status and other individual characteristics are obtained from the March Current Population Survey (CPS). State-level income inequality is measured by the Gini coefficient based on family income, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and Al-Samarrie and Miller (1967). State-level mortality rates are from the Vital Statistics of the United States; other state-level characteristics are from U.S. census data as reported in the Statistical Abstract of the United States. Study Design We examine the effects of state-level income inequality lagged from 5 to 29 years on individual health by estimating probit models of poor/fair health status for samples of adults aged 25–74 in the 1995 through 1999 March CPS. We control for several individual characteristics, including educational attainment and household income, as well as regional fixed effects. We use multivariate regression to estimate the effects of income inequality lagged 10 and 20 years on state-level mortality rates for 1990, 1980, 1970, and 1960. Principal Findings Lagged income inequality is not significantly associated with individual health status after controlling for regional fixed effects. Lagged income inequality is not associated with all cause mortality, but associated with reduced mortality from cardiovascular disease and malignant neoplasms, after controlling for state fixed-effects. Conclusions In contrast to previous studies that fail to control for regional variations in health outcomes, we find little support for the contention that exposure to income inequality is detrimental to either individual or population health. PMID:12650385

The Impact of a Pay-for-Performance Program on Central Line-Associated Blood Stream Infections in Pennsylvania.

PubMed

Bastian, Nathaniel D; Kang, Hyojung; Nembhard, Harriet B; Bloschichak, Andrew; Griffin, Paul M

2016-01-01

Healthcare associated infections have significantly contributed to the rising cost of hospital care in the United States. The implementation of pay-for-performance (P4P) programs has been one approach to improve quality at a reduced cost. We quantify the impact of Highmark's Quality Blue (QB) hospital P4P program on central line-associated blood stream infections (CLABSI) in Pennsylvania. The impact of years of participation in QB on CLABSI is also evaluated. Data from 149 Pennsylvania hospitals on CLABSI from 2008-2013 are used. Negative binomial regression and fixed effects panel regression are performed. Hospitals participating in QB have 0.727 times the CLABSI as those hospitals that do not participate. Hospitals participating for four or more years have on average 3.13 fewer CLABSI per year compared to those participating for less than four years. Highmark's P4P program has shown improved outcomes with regards to CLABSI, but further research is needed to determine if QB is cost effective.

Comparative study of outcome measures and analysis methods for traumatic brain injury trials.

PubMed

Alali, Aziz S; Vavrek, Darcy; Barber, Jason; Dikmen, Sureyya; Nathens, Avery B; Temkin, Nancy R

2015-04-15

Batteries of functional and cognitive measures have been proposed as alternatives to the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) as the primary outcome for traumatic brain injury (TBI) trials. We evaluated several approaches to analyzing GOSE and a battery of four functional and cognitive measures. Using data from a randomized trial, we created a "super" dataset of 16,550 subjects from patients with complete data (n=331) and then simulated multiple treatment effects across multiple outcome measures. Patients were sampled with replacement (bootstrapping) to generate 10,000 samples for each treatment effect (n=400 patients/group). The percentage of samples where the null hypothesis was rejected estimates the power. All analytic techniques had appropriate rates of type I error (≤5%). Accounting for baseline prognosis either by using sliding dichotomy for GOSE or using regression-based methods substantially increased the power over the corresponding analysis without accounting for prognosis. Analyzing GOSE using multivariate proportional odds regression or analyzing the four-outcome battery with regression-based adjustments had the highest power, assuming equal treatment effect across all components. Analyzing GOSE using a fixed dichotomy provided the lowest power for both unadjusted and regression-adjusted analyses. We assumed an equal treatment effect for all measures. This may not be true in an actual clinical trial. Accounting for baseline prognosis is critical to attaining high power in Phase III TBI trials. The choice of primary outcome for future trials should be guided by power, the domain of brain function that an intervention is likely to impact, and the feasibility of collecting outcome data.

Comparative Study of Outcome Measures and Analysis Methods for Traumatic Brain Injury Trials

PubMed Central

Alali, Aziz S.; Vavrek, Darcy; Barber, Jason; Dikmen, Sureyya; Nathens, Avery B.

2015-01-01

Abstract Batteries of functional and cognitive measures have been proposed as alternatives to the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) as the primary outcome for traumatic brain injury (TBI) trials. We evaluated several approaches to analyzing GOSE and a battery of four functional and cognitive measures. Using data from a randomized trial, we created a “super” dataset of 16,550 subjects from patients with complete data (n=331) and then simulated multiple treatment effects across multiple outcome measures. Patients were sampled with replacement (bootstrapping) to generate 10,000 samples for each treatment effect (n=400 patients/group). The percentage of samples where the null hypothesis was rejected estimates the power. All analytic techniques had appropriate rates of type I error (≤5%). Accounting for baseline prognosis either by using sliding dichotomy for GOSE or using regression-based methods substantially increased the power over the corresponding analysis without accounting for prognosis. Analyzing GOSE using multivariate proportional odds regression or analyzing the four-outcome battery with regression-based adjustments had the highest power, assuming equal treatment effect across all components. Analyzing GOSE using a fixed dichotomy provided the lowest power for both unadjusted and regression-adjusted analyses. We assumed an equal treatment effect for all measures. This may not be true in an actual clinical trial. Accounting for baseline prognosis is critical to attaining high power in Phase III TBI trials. The choice of primary outcome for future trials should be guided by power, the domain of brain function that an intervention is likely to impact, and the feasibility of collecting outcome data. PMID:25317951

Application of response surface methodology and semi-mechanistic model to optimize fluoride removal using crushed concrete in a fixed-bed column.

PubMed

Gu, Bon-Wun; Lee, Chang-Gu; Park, Seong-Jik

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the removal of fluoride from aqueous solutions by using crushed concrete fines as a filter medium under varying conditions of pH 3-7, flow rate of 0.3-0.7 mL/min, and filter depth of 10-20 cm. The performance of fixed-bed columns was evaluated on the basis of the removal ratio (Re), uptake capacity (qe), degree of sorbent used (DoSU), and sorbent usage rate (SUR) obtained from breakthrough curves (BTCs). Three widely used semi-mechanistic models, that is, Bohart-Adams, Thomas, and Yoon-Nelson models, were applied to simulate the BTCs and to derive the design parameters. The Box-Behnken design of response surface methodology (RSM) was used to elucidate the individual and interactive effects of the three operational parameters on the column performance and to optimize these parameters. The results demonstrated that pH is the most important factor in the performance of fluoride removal by a fixed-bed column. The flow rate had a significant negative influence on Re and DoSU, and the effect of filter depth was observed only in the regression model for DoSU. Statistical analysis indicated that the model attained from the RSM study is suitable for describing the semi-mechanistic model parameters.

Random regression models for the prediction of days to weight, ultrasound rib eye area, and ultrasound back fat depth in beef cattle.

PubMed

Speidel, S E; Peel, R K; Crews, D H; Enns, R M

2016-02-01

Genetic evaluation research designed to reduce the required days to a specified end point has received very little attention in pertinent scientific literature, given that its economic importance was first discussed in 1957. There are many production scenarios in today's beef industry, making a prediction for the required number of days to a single end point a suboptimal option. Random regression is an attractive alternative to calculate days to weight (DTW), days to ultrasound back fat (DTUBF), and days to ultrasound rib eye area (DTUREA) genetic predictions that could overcome weaknesses of a single end point prediction. The objective of this study was to develop random regression approaches for the prediction of the DTW, DTUREA, and DTUBF. Data were obtained from the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Research Centre, Lethbridge, AB, Canada. Data consisted of records on 1,324 feedlot cattle spanning 1999 to 2007. Individual animals averaged 5.77 observations with weights, ultrasound rib eye area (UREA), ultrasound back fat depth (UBF), and ages ranging from 293 to 863 kg, 73.39 to 129.54 cm, 1.53 to 30.47 mm, and 276 to 519 d, respectively. Random regression models using Legendre polynomials were used to regress age of the individual on weight, UREA, and UBF. Fixed effects in the model included an overall fixed regression of age on end point (weight, UREA, and UBF) nested within breed to account for the mean relationship between age and weight as well as a contemporary group effect consisting of breed of the animal (Angus, Charolais, and Charolais sired), feedlot pen, and year of measure. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine the appropriate random polynomial order. Use of the quadratic polynomial did not account for any additional genetic variation in days for DTW ( > 0.11), for DTUREA ( > 0.18), and for DTUBF ( > 0.20) when compared with the linear random polynomial. Heritability estimates from the linear random regression for DTW ranged from 0.54 to 0.74, corresponding to end points of 293 and 863 kg, respectively. Heritability for DTUREA ranged from 0.51 to 0.34 and for DTUBF ranged from 0.55 to 0.37. These estimates correspond to UREA end points of 35 and 125 cm and UBF end points of 1.53 and 30 mm, respectively. This range of heritability shows DTW, DTUREA, and DTUBF to be highly heritable and indicates that selection pressure aimed at reducing the number of days to reach a finish weight end point can result in genetic change given sufficient data.

Assessing variation in life-history tactics within a population using mixture regression models: a practical guide for evolutionary ecologists.

PubMed

Hamel, Sandra; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Gaillard, Jean-Michel

2017-05-01

Mixed models are now well-established methods in ecology and evolution because they allow accounting for and quantifying within- and between-individual variation. However, the required normal distribution of the random effects can often be violated by the presence of clusters among subjects, which leads to multi-modal distributions. In such cases, using what is known as mixture regression models might offer a more appropriate approach. These models are widely used in psychology, sociology, and medicine to describe the diversity of trajectories occurring within a population over time (e.g. psychological development, growth). In ecology and evolution, however, these models are seldom used even though understanding changes in individual trajectories is an active area of research in life-history studies. Our aim is to demonstrate the value of using mixture models to describe variation in individual life-history tactics within a population, and hence to promote the use of these models by ecologists and evolutionary ecologists. We first ran a set of simulations to determine whether and when a mixture model allows teasing apart latent clustering, and to contrast the precision and accuracy of estimates obtained from mixture models versus mixed models under a wide range of ecological contexts. We then used empirical data from long-term studies of large mammals to illustrate the potential of using mixture models for assessing within-population variation in life-history tactics. Mixture models performed well in most cases, except for variables following a Bernoulli distribution and when sample size was small. The four selection criteria we evaluated [Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and two bootstrap methods] performed similarly well, selecting the right number of clusters in most ecological situations. We then showed that the normality of random effects implicitly assumed by evolutionary ecologists when using mixed models was often violated in life-history data. Mixed models were quite robust to this violation in the sense that fixed effects were unbiased at the population level. However, fixed effects at the cluster level and random effects were better estimated using mixture models. Our empirical analyses demonstrated that using mixture models facilitates the identification of the diversity of growth and reproductive tactics occurring within a population. Therefore, using this modelling framework allows testing for the presence of clusters and, when clusters occur, provides reliable estimates of fixed and random effects for each cluster of the population. In the presence or expectation of clusters, using mixture models offers a suitable extension of mixed models, particularly when evolutionary ecologists aim at identifying how ecological and evolutionary processes change within a population. Mixture regression models therefore provide a valuable addition to the statistical toolbox of evolutionary ecologists. As these models are complex and have their own limitations, we provide recommendations to guide future users. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Financial hardship, mastery and social support: Explaining poor mental health amongst the inadequately employed using data from the HILDA survey.

PubMed

Crowe, Laura; Butterworth, Peter; Leach, Liana

2016-12-01

This study analysed data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to examine the relationship between employment status and mental health, and the mediating effects of financial hardship, mastery and social support. In addition, the study sought to explore the effects of duration of unemployment on mental health. The primary analysis used three waves of data from the HILDA Survey with 4965 young adult respondents. Longitudinal population-averaged logistic regression models assessed the association of employment status and mental health, including the contribution of mastery, financial hardship and social support in explaining this association between employment groups (unemployed vs. employed; under employed vs. employed). Sensitivity analyses utilised a fixed-effects approach and also considered the full-range of working-age respondents. Regression analysis was used to explore the effect of duration of unemployment on mental health. Respondents' who identified as unemployed or underemployed were at higher risk of poor mental health outcomes when compared to their employed counterparts. This association was ameliorated when accounting for mastery, financial hardship and social support for the unemployed, and was fully mediated for the underemployed. The fixed-effects models showed the transition to unemployment was associated with a decline in mental health and that mastery in particular contributed to that change. The same results were found with a broader age range of respondents. Finally, the relationship between duration of unemployment and mental health was not linear, with mental health showing marked decline across the first 9 weeks of unemployment. Mastery, social support and financial hardship are important factors in understanding the association of poor mental health with both unemployment and underemployment. Furthermore, the results suggest that the most deleterious effects on mental health may occur in the first two months of unemployment before plateauing. In order to prevent deterioration in mental health, these findings suggest intervention should commence immediately following job loss.

Taste clusters of music and drugs: evidence from three analytic levels.

PubMed

Vuolo, Mike; Uggen, Christopher; Lageson, Sarah

2014-09-01

This article examines taste clusters of musical preferences and substance use among adolescents and young adults. Three analytic levels are considered: fixed effects analyses of aggregate listening patterns and substance use in US radio markets, logistic regressions of individual genre preferences and drug use from a nationally representative survey of US youth, and arrest and seizure data from a large American concert venue. A consistent picture emerges from all three levels: rock music is positively associated with substance use, with some substance-specific variability across rock sub-genres. Hip hop music is also associated with higher use, while pop and religious music are associated with lower use. These results are robust to fixed effects models that account for changes over time in radio markets, a comprehensive battery of controls in the individual-level survey, and concert data establishing the co-occurrence of substance use and music listening in the same place and time. The results affirm a rich tradition of qualitative and experimental studies, demonstrating how symbolic boundaries are simultaneously drawn around music and drugs. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2014.

Fixed but not autoadjusting positive airway pressure attenuates the time-dependent decline in glomerular filtration rate in patients with obstructive sleep apnea.

PubMed

Marrone, Oreste; Cibella, Fabio; Pépin, Jean-Louis; Grote, Ludger; Verbraecken, Johan; Saaresranta, Tarja; Kvamme, John A; Basoglu, Ozen K; Lombardi, Carolina; McNicholas, Walter T; Hedner, Jan; Bonsignore, Maria R

2018-04-23

The impact of treating obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) on renal function decline is controversial. Previous studies usually included small samples and did not consider specific effects of different continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) modalities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the respective influence of fixed and auto-adjusting CPAP modes on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in a large sample of patients derived from the prospective European Sleep Apnea Database (ESADA) cohort. In patients of the ESADA, eGFR before and after follow-up was calculated using the CKD-EPI equation. Three study groups were investigated, namely untreated patients (n=144), patients receiving fixed continuous positive airway pressure (fCPAP) (n=1,178), and patients on auto-adjusting CPAP (APAP) (n=485). In the whole sample, eGFR decreased over time. The rate of eGFR decline was significantly higher in the subgroup with eGFR above median [91.42 ml/min/1.73m 2 ] at baseline (p<0.0001 for effect of baseline eGFR). This decline was attenuated or absent (p<0.0001 for effect of treatment) in the subgroup of OSA treated by fCPAP. A follow-up duration exceeding the median (541 days), was associated with eGFR decline in the untreated and APAP groups, but not in the fCPAP group (p <0.0001 by two-way ANOVA for interaction between treatment and follow-up length). In multiple regression analysis, eGFR decline was accentuated by advanced age, female gender, cardiac failure, higher baseline eGFR and longer follow-up duration, while there was a protective effect of fCPAP. Fixed CPAP but not APAP, may prevent eGFR decline in OSA. Copyright © 2018 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detection probability in aerial surveys of feral horses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransom, Jason I.

2011-01-01

Observation bias pervades data collected during aerial surveys of large animals, and although some sources can be mitigated with informed planning, others must be addressed using valid sampling techniques that carefully model detection probability. Nonetheless, aerial surveys are frequently employed to count large mammals without applying such methods to account for heterogeneity in visibility of animal groups on the landscape. This often leaves managers and interest groups at odds over decisions that are not adequately informed. I analyzed detection of feral horse (Equus caballus) groups by dual independent observers from 24 fixed-wing and 16 helicopter flights using mixed-effect logistic regression models to investigate potential sources of observation bias. I accounted for observer skill, population location, and aircraft type in the model structure and analyzed the effects of group size, sun effect (position related to observer), vegetation type, topography, cloud cover, percent snow cover, and observer fatigue on detection of horse groups. The most important model-averaged effects for both fixed-wing and helicopter surveys included group size (fixed-wing: odds ratio = 0.891, 95% CI = 0.850–0.935; helicopter: odds ratio = 0.640, 95% CI = 0.587–0.698) and sun effect (fixed-wing: odds ratio = 0.632, 95% CI = 0.350–1.141; helicopter: odds ratio = 0.194, 95% CI = 0.080–0.470). Observer fatigue was also an important effect in the best model for helicopter surveys, with detection probability declining after 3 hr of survey time (odds ratio = 0.278, 95% CI = 0.144–0.537). Biases arising from sun effect and observer fatigue can be mitigated by pre-flight survey design. Other sources of bias, such as those arising from group size, topography, and vegetation can only be addressed by employing valid sampling techniques such as double sampling, mark–resight (batch-marked animals), mark–recapture (uniquely marked and identifiable animals), sightability bias correction models, and line transect distance sampling; however, some of these techniques may still only partially correct for negative observation biases.

Health shocks adversely impact participation in the labour force in a working age population: a longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Carter, Kristie N; Gunasekara, Fiona Imlach; Blakely, Tony; Richardson, Ken

2013-06-01

It is well understood that health affects labour force participation (LFP). However, much of the published research has been on older (retiring age) populations and using subjective health measures. This paper aims to assess the impact of an objective measure of 'health shock' (cancer registration or hospitalisation) on LFP in a working age population using longitudinal panel study data and fixed effect regression analyses. Seven waves of data from 2002-09 from the longitudinal Survey of Family, Income and Employment (SoFIE) were used, including working aged individuals who consented to have their survey information linked to health records (n=6,780). Fixed effect conditional logistic regression was used to model the impact of health shocks (hospitalisation or cancer registration) in the previous year on labour force participation at date of annual interview. Models were stratified by gender, age group (25-39 years, 40-54 years) and gender by age group. A health shock was associated with a significantly increased risk of subsequent non-participation in the labour force (odds ratio 1.54, 95%CI 1.30-1.82). Although interactions of age, sex and age by sex with health shock were not statistically significant, the association was largest in younger men and women. Using an objective measure of health, we have shown that a health shock adversely affects subsequent labour force participation. There are a number of policy and practice implications relating to support for working age people who have hospitalisations. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

Cytochemical evaluation of the Guard procedure a regressive staining method for demonstrating chromosomal basic proteins. I. Effects of fixation, blocking reactions, selective extractions, and polyacid "differentiation".

PubMed

Cowden, R R; Rasch, E M; Curtis, S K

1976-08-12

Appropriately fixed preparations stained by a modification of the Guard (1959) reaction for "sex chromatin" display selective staining of interphase chromatin and mitotic or meiotic chromosomes. This is a regressive staining method which seems to depend on the selective displacement of an acidic dye from less basic structures, and retention of the dye at more basic sites. The results obtained with the reaction can be controlled by the length of time that the preparations are "differentiated" in solutions containing phosphomolybdic and phosphotungstic acids (polyacids). After three- or four-hour exposures to polyacid solutions, all chromatin is stained. However, with longer differentiation, "condensed" chromatin can be stained preferentially. Of a number of fixatives investigated, only 10% formalin, ethanol-acetic acid (3:1), and Bouin's solution proved useful. Others resulted in diminished specificity or a total loss of selectivity. The most intense staining was obtained after formalin fixation. Less intense dyebinding was observed after fixation in 3:1 - probably due to extraction of some histone fractions-and the least amount of dye was bound in Bouin's-fixed chromatin - probably due to blockage of arginine residues by picric acid. The reaction was not affected by enzymatic removal of nucleic acids or the extraction of lipids. It was diminished by treatment with trypsin or weak acetylation, and it was completely prevented by strong acetylation, deamination, or extraction of basic proteins with HCl. The results presented suggest that the modified Guard (1959) procedure selectively demonstrates basic nucleoproteins. Further, by the use of regressive differentiation in polyacid solutions, the retention of dye in more condensed chromatin can be favored.

Sex, price and preferences: accounting for unsafe sexual practices in prostitution markets.

PubMed

Adriaenssens, Stef; Hendrickx, Jef

2012-06-01

Unsafe sexual practices are persistent in prostitution interactions: one in four contacts can be called unsafe. The determinants of this are still matter for debate. We account for the roles played by clients' preferences and the hypothetical price premium of unsafe sexual practices with the help of a large dataset of clients' self-reported commercial sexual transactions in Belgium and The Netherlands. Almost 25,000 reports were collected, representing the whole gamut of prostitution market segments. The first set of explanations consists of an analysis of the price-fixing elements of paid sex. With the help of the so-called hedonic pricing method we test for the existence of a price incentive for unsafe sex. In accordance with the results from studies in some prostitution markets in the developing world, the study replicates a significant wage penalty for condom use of an estimated 7.2 per cent, confirmed in both multilevel and fixed-effects regressions. The second part of the analysis reconstructs the demand side basis of this wage penalty: the consistent preference of clients of prostitution for unsafe sex. This study is the first to document empirically clients' preference for intercourse without a condom, with the help of a multilevel ordinal regression. © 2011 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2011 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Effects of macroeconomic trends on social security spending due to sickness and disability.

PubMed

Khan, Jahangir; Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Jansson, Bjarne

2004-11-01

We analyzed the relationship between macroeconomic conditions, measured as unemployment rate and social security spending, from 4 social security schemes and total spending due to sickness and disability. We obtained aggregated panel data from 13 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries for 1980-1996. We used regression analysis and fixed effect models to examine spending on sickness benefits, disability pensions, occupational-injury benefits, survivor's pensions, and total spending. A decline in unemployment increased sickness benefits spending and reduced disability pension spending. These effects reversed direction after 4 years of unemployment. Inclusion of mortality rate as an additional variable in the analysis did not affect the findings. Macroeconomic conditions influence some reimbursements from social security schemes but not total spending.

Controlling for selection effects in the relationship between child behavior problems and exposure to intimate partner violence.

PubMed

Emery, Clifton R

2011-05-01

This article used the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) data to examine the relationship between exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) and child behavior problems (externalizing and internalizing), truancy, grade repetition, smoking, drinking, and use of marijuana. Longitudinal data analysis was conducted on 1,816 primary caregivers and their children. Fixed-effects regression models were employed to address concerns with selection bias. IPV was associated with significantly greater internalizing behavior, externalizing behavior, and truancy. Findings from age interaction models suggested that the relationship between IPV and child behavior problems may attenuate as the age of the child at time of exposure increases.

A general method for decomposing the causes of socioeconomic inequality in health.

PubMed

Heckley, Gawain; Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Kjellsson, Gustav

2016-07-01

We introduce a general decomposition method applicable to all forms of bivariate rank dependent indices of socioeconomic inequality in health, including the concentration index. The technique is based on recentered influence function regression and requires only the application of OLS to a transformed variable with similar interpretation. Our method requires few identifying assumptions to yield valid estimates in most common empirical applications, unlike current methods favoured in the literature. Using the Swedish Twin Registry and a within twin pair fixed effects identification strategy, our new method finds no evidence of a causal effect of education on income-related health inequality. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High dimensional linear regression models under long memory dependence and measurement error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaul, Abhishek

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter introduces the models under consideration and motivates problems of interest. A brief literature review is also provided in this chapter. The second chapter investigates the properties of Lasso under long range dependent model errors. Lasso is a computationally efficient approach to model selection and estimation, and its properties are well studied when the regression errors are independent and identically distributed. We study the case, where the regression errors form a long memory moving average process. We establish a finite sample oracle inequality for the Lasso solution. We then show the asymptotic sign consistency in this setup. These results are established in the high dimensional setup (p> n) where p can be increasing exponentially with n. Finally, we show the consistency, n½ --d-consistency of Lasso, along with the oracle property of adaptive Lasso, in the case where p is fixed. Here d is the memory parameter of the stationary error sequence. The performance of Lasso is also analysed in the present setup with a simulation study. The third chapter proposes and investigates the properties of a penalized quantile based estimator for measurement error models. Standard formulations of prediction problems in high dimension regression models assume the availability of fully observed covariates and sub-Gaussian and homogeneous model errors. This makes these methods inapplicable to measurement errors models where covariates are unobservable and observations are possibly non sub-Gaussian and heterogeneous. We propose weighted penalized corrected quantile estimators for the regression parameter vector in linear regression models with additive measurement errors, where unobservable covariates are nonrandom. The proposed estimators forgo the need for the above mentioned model assumptions. We study these estimators in both the fixed dimension and high dimensional sparse setups, in the latter setup, the dimensionality can grow exponentially with the sample size. In the fixed dimensional setting we provide the oracle properties associated with the proposed estimators. In the high dimensional setting, we provide bounds for the statistical error associated with the estimation, that hold with asymptotic probability 1, thereby providing the ℓ1-consistency of the proposed estimator. We also establish the model selection consistency in terms of the correctly estimated zero components of the parameter vector. A simulation study that investigates the finite sample accuracy of the proposed estimator is also included in this chapter.

Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations

PubMed Central

Pornprasertmanit, Sunthud; Little, Todd D.

2014-01-01

Directional dependency is a method to determine the likely causal direction of effect between two variables. This article aims to critique and improve upon the use of directional dependency as a technique to infer causal associations. We comment on several issues raised by von Eye and DeShon (2012), including: encouraging the use of the signs of skewness and excessive kurtosis of both variables, discouraging the use of D’Agostino’s K2, and encouraging the use of directional dependency to compare variables only within time points. We offer improved steps for determining directional dependency that fix the problems we note. Next, we discuss how to integrate directional dependency into longitudinal data analysis with two variables. We also examine the accuracy of directional dependency evaluations when several regression assumptions are violated. Directional dependency can suggest the direction of a relation if (a) the regression error in population is normal, (b) an unobserved explanatory variable correlates with any variables equal to or less than .2, (c) a curvilinear relation between both variables is not strong (standardized regression coefficient ≤ .2), (d) there are no bivariate outliers, and (e) both variables are continuous. PMID:24683282

Income and Child Maltreatment in Unmarried Families: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit.

PubMed

Berger, Lawrence M; Font, Sarah A; Slack, Kristen S; Waldfogel, Jane

2017-12-01

This study estimates the associations of income with both (self-reported) child protective services (CPS) involvement and parenting behaviors that proxy for child abuse and neglect risk among unmarried families. Our primary strategy follows the instrumental variables (IV) approach employed by Dahl and Lochner (2012), which leverages variation between states and over time in the generosity of the total state and federal Earned Income Tax Credit for which a family is eligible to identify exogenous variation in family income. As a robustness check, we also estimate standard OLS regressions (linear probability models), reduced form OLS regressions, and OLS regressions with the inclusion of a control function (each with and without family-specific fixed effects). Our micro-level data are drawn from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a longitudinal birth-cohort of relatively disadvantaged urban children who have been followed from birth to age nine. Results suggest that an exogenous increase in income is associated with reductions in behaviorally-approximated child neglect and CPS involvement, particularly among low-income single-mother families.

The relationship between air pollution, fossil fuel energy consumption, and water resources in the panel of selected Asia-Pacific countries.

PubMed

Rafindadi, Abdulkadir Abdulrashid; Yusof, Zarinah; Zaman, Khalid; Kyophilavong, Phouphet; Akhmat, Ghulam

2014-10-01

The objective of the study is to examine the relationship between air pollution, fossil fuel energy consumption, water resources, and natural resource rents in the panel of selected Asia-Pacific countries, over a period of 1975-2012. The study includes number of variables in the model for robust analysis. The results of cross-sectional analysis show that there is a significant relationship between air pollution, energy consumption, and water productivity in the individual countries of Asia-Pacific. However, the results of each country vary according to the time invariant shocks. For this purpose, the study employed the panel least square technique which includes the panel least square regression, panel fixed effect regression, and panel two-stage least square regression. In general, all the panel tests indicate that there is a significant and positive relationship between air pollution, energy consumption, and water resources in the region. The fossil fuel energy consumption has a major dominating impact on the changes in the air pollution in the region.

Aircraft Anomaly Detection Using Performance Models Trained on Fleet Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorinevsky, Dimitry; Matthews, Bryan L.; Martin, Rodney

2012-01-01

This paper describes an application of data mining technology called Distributed Fleet Monitoring (DFM) to Flight Operational Quality Assurance (FOQA) data collected from a fleet of commercial aircraft. DFM transforms the data into aircraft performance models, flight-to-flight trends, and individual flight anomalies by fitting a multi-level regression model to the data. The model represents aircraft flight performance and takes into account fixed effects: flight-to-flight and vehicle-to-vehicle variability. The regression parameters include aerodynamic coefficients and other aircraft performance parameters that are usually identified by aircraft manufacturers in flight tests. Using DFM, the multi-terabyte FOQA data set with half-million flights was processed in a few hours. The anomalies found include wrong values of competed variables, (e.g., aircraft weight), sensor failures and baises, failures, biases, and trends in flight actuators. These anomalies were missed by the existing airline monitoring of FOQA data exceedances.

[Using fractional polynomials to estimate the safety threshold of fluoride in drinking water].

PubMed

Pan, Shenling; An, Wei; Li, Hongyan; Yang, Min

2014-01-01

To study the dose-response relationship between fluoride content in drinking water and prevalence of dental fluorosis on the national scale, then to determine the safety threshold of fluoride in drinking water. Meta-regression analysis was applied to the 2001-2002 national endemic fluorosis survey data of key wards. First, fractional polynomial (FP) was adopted to establish fixed effect model, determining the best FP structure, after that restricted maximum likelihood (REML) was adopted to estimate between-study variance, then the best random effect model was established. The best FP structure was first-order logarithmic transformation. Based on the best random effect model, the benchmark dose (BMD) of fluoride in drinking water and its lower limit (BMDL) was calculated as 0.98 mg/L and 0.78 mg/L. Fluoride in drinking water can only explain 35.8% of the variability of the prevalence, among other influencing factors, ward type was a significant factor, while temperature condition and altitude were not. Fractional polynomial-based meta-regression method is simple, practical and can provide good fitting effect, based on it, the safety threshold of fluoride in drinking water of our country is determined as 0.8 mg/L.

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

PubMed

Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

2012-12-20

Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using regression methods to estimate stream phosphorus loads at the Illinois River, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haggard, B.E.; Soerens, T.S.; Green, W.R.; Richards, R.P.

2003-01-01

The development of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) requires evaluating existing constituent loads in streams. Accurate estimates of constituent loads are needed to calibrate watershed and reservoir models for TMDL development. The best approach to estimate constituent loads is high frequency sampling, particularly during storm events, and mass integration of constituents passing a point in a stream. Most often, resources are limited and discrete water quality samples are collected on fixed intervals and sometimes supplemented with directed sampling during storm events. When resources are limited, mass integration is not an accurate means to determine constituent loads and other load estimation techniques such as regression models are used. The objective of this work was to determine a minimum number of water-quality samples needed to provide constituent concentration data adequate to estimate constituent loads at a large stream. Twenty sets of water quality samples with and without supplemental storm samples were randomly selected at various fixed intervals from a database at the Illinois River, northwest Arkansas. The random sets were used to estimate total phosphorus (TP) loads using regression models. The regression-based annual TP loads were compared to the integrated annual TP load estimated using all the data. At a minimum, monthly sampling plus supplemental storm samples (six samples per year) was needed to produce a root mean square error of less than 15%. Water quality samples should be collected at least semi-monthly (every 15 days) in studies less than two years if seasonal time factors are to be used in the regression models. Annual TP loads estimated from independently collected discrete water quality samples further demonstrated the utility of using regression models to estimate annual TP loads in this stream system.

Bayesian semi-parametric analysis of Poisson change-point regression models: application to policy making in Cali, Colombia.

PubMed

Park, Taeyoung; Krafty, Robert T; Sánchez, Alvaro I

2012-07-27

A Poisson regression model with an offset assumes a constant baseline rate after accounting for measured covariates, which may lead to biased estimates of coefficients in an inhomogeneous Poisson process. To correctly estimate the effect of time-dependent covariates, we propose a Poisson change-point regression model with an offset that allows a time-varying baseline rate. When the nonconstant pattern of a log baseline rate is modeled with a nonparametric step function, the resulting semi-parametric model involves a model component of varying dimension and thus requires a sophisticated varying-dimensional inference to obtain correct estimates of model parameters of fixed dimension. To fit the proposed varying-dimensional model, we devise a state-of-the-art MCMC-type algorithm based on partial collapse. The proposed model and methods are used to investigate an association between daily homicide rates in Cali, Colombia and policies that restrict the hours during which the legal sale of alcoholic beverages is permitted. While simultaneously identifying the latent changes in the baseline homicide rate which correspond to the incidence of sociopolitical events, we explore the effect of policies governing the sale of alcohol on homicide rates and seek a policy that balances the economic and cultural dependencies on alcohol sales to the health of the public.

Laboratory studies of scales for measuring helicopter noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ollerhead, J. B.

1982-01-01

The adequacy of the effective perceived noise level (EPNL) procedure for rating helicopter noise annoyance was investigated. Recordings of 89 helicopters and 30 fixed wing aircraft (CTOL) flyover sounds were rated with respect to annoyance by groups of approximately 40 subjects. The average annoyance scores were transformed to annoyance levels defined as the equally annoying sound levels of a fixed reference sound. The sound levels of the test sounds were measured on various scales, with and without corrections for duration, tones, and impulsiveness. On average, the helicopter sounds were judged equally annoying to CTOL sounds when their duration corrected levels are approximately 2 dB higher. Multiple regression analysis indicated that, provided the helicopter/CTOL difference of about 2 dB is taken into account, the particular linear combination of level, duration, and tone corrections inherent in EPNL is close to optimum. The results reveal no general requirement for special EPNL correction terms to penalize helicopter sounds which are particularly impulsive; impulsiveness causes spectral and temporal changes which themselves adequately amplify conventionally measured sound levels.

Educational attainment and cigarette smoking: a causal association?†

PubMed Central

Gilman, Stephen E; Martin, Laurie T; Abrams, David B; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kubzansky, Laura; Loucks, Eric B; Rende, Richard; Rudd, Rima; Buka, Stephen L

2016-01-01

Background Despite abundant evidence that lower education is associated with a higher risk of smoking, whether the association is causal has not been convincingly established. Methods We investigated the association between education and lifetime smoking patterns in a birth cohort established in 1959 and followed through adulthood (n = 1311). We controlled for a wide range of potential confounders that were measured prior to school entry, and also estimated sibling fixed effects models to control for unmeasured familial vulnerability to smoking. Results In the full sample of participants, regression analyses adjusting for multiple childhood factors (including socioeconomic status, IQ, behavioural problems, and medical conditions) indicated that the number of pack-years smoked was higher among individuals with less than high school education [rate ratio (RR) = 1.58, confidence interval (CI) = 1.31, 1.91]. However, in the sibling fixed effects analysis the RR was 1.23 (CI = 0.80, 1.93). Similarly, adjusted models estimated in the full sample showed that individuals with less than high school education had fewer short-term (RR = 0.40; CI = 0.23, 0.69) and long-term (RR = 0.59; CI = 0.42, 0.83) quit attempts, and were less likely to quit smoking (odds ratio = 0.34; CI = 0.19, 0.62). The effects of education on quitting smoking were attenuated in the sibling fixed effects models that controlled for familial vulnerability to smoking. Conclusions A substantial portion of the education differential in smoking that has been repeatedly observed is attributable to factors shared by siblings that contribute to shortened educational careers and to lifetime smoking trajectories. Reducing disparities in cigarette smoking, including educational disparities, may therefore require approaches that focus on factors early in life that influence smoking risk over the adult life span. PMID:18180240

CUSUM-Logistic Regression analysis for the rapid detection of errors in clinical laboratory test results.

PubMed

Sampson, Maureen L; Gounden, Verena; van Deventer, Hendrik E; Remaley, Alan T

2016-02-01

The main drawback of the periodic analysis of quality control (QC) material is that test performance is not monitored in time periods between QC analyses, potentially leading to the reporting of faulty test results. The objective of this study was to develop a patient based QC procedure for the more timely detection of test errors. Results from a Chem-14 panel measured on the Beckman LX20 analyzer were used to develop the model. Each test result was predicted from the other 13 members of the panel by multiple regression, which resulted in correlation coefficients between the predicted and measured result of >0.7 for 8 of the 14 tests. A logistic regression model, which utilized the measured test result, the predicted test result, the day of the week and time of day, was then developed for predicting test errors. The output of the logistic regression was tallied by a daily CUSUM approach and used to predict test errors, with a fixed specificity of 90%. The mean average run length (ARL) before error detection by CUSUM-Logistic Regression (CSLR) was 20 with a mean sensitivity of 97%, which was considerably shorter than the mean ARL of 53 (sensitivity 87.5%) for a simple prediction model that only used the measured result for error detection. A CUSUM-Logistic Regression analysis of patient laboratory data can be an effective approach for the rapid and sensitive detection of clinical laboratory errors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Influence of optic disc size on the diagnostic performance of macular ganglion cell complex and peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer analyses in glaucoma.

PubMed

Cordeiro, Daniela Valença; Lima, Verônica Castro; Castro, Dinorah P; Castro, Leonardo C; Pacheco, Maria Angélica; Lee, Jae Min; Dimantas, Marcelo I; Prata, Tiago Santos

2011-01-01

To evaluate the influence of optic disc size on the diagnostic accuracy of macular ganglion cell complex (GCC) and conventional peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) analyses provided by spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) in glaucoma. Eighty-two glaucoma patients and 30 healthy subjects were included. All patients underwent GCC (7 × 7 mm macular grid, consisting of RNFL, ganglion cell and inner plexiform layers) and pRNFL thickness measurement (3.45 mm circular scan) by SD-OCT. One eye was randomly selected for analysis. Initially, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for different GCC and pRNFL parameters. The effect of disc area on the diagnostic accuracy of these parameters was evaluated using a logistic ROC regression model. Subsequently, 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 mm(2) disc sizes were arbitrarily chosen (based on data distribution) and the predicted areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) and sensitivities were compared at fixed specificities for each. Average mean deviation index for glaucomatous eyes was -5.3 ± 5.2 dB. Similar AUCs were found for the best pRNFL (average thickness = 0.872) and GCC parameters (average thickness = 0.824; P = 0.19). The coefficient representing disc area in the ROC regression model was not statistically significant for average pRNFL thickness (-0.176) or average GCC thickness (0.088; P ≥ 0.56). AUCs for fixed disc areas (1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 mm(2)) were 0.904, 0.891, and 0.875 for average pRNFL thickness and 0.834, 0.842, and 0.851 for average GCC thickness, respectively. The highest sensitivities - at 80% specificity for average pRNFL (84.5%) and GCC thicknesses (74.5%) - were found with disc sizes fixed at 1.5 mm(2) and 2.5 mm(2). Diagnostic accuracy was similar between pRNFL and GCC thickness parameters. Although not statistically significant, there was a trend for a better diagnostic accuracy of pRNFL thickness measurement in cases of smaller discs. For GCC analysis, an inverse effect was observed.

Bayesian structured additive regression modeling of epidemic data: application to cholera

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background A significant interest in spatial epidemiology lies in identifying associated risk factors which enhances the risk of infection. Most studies, however, make no, or limited use of the spatial structure of the data, as well as possible nonlinear effects of the risk factors. Methods We develop a Bayesian Structured Additive Regression model for cholera epidemic data. Model estimation and inference is based on fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The model is applied to cholera epidemic data in the Kumasi Metropolis, Ghana. Proximity to refuse dumps, density of refuse dumps, and proximity to potential cholera reservoirs were modeled as continuous functions; presence of slum settlers and population density were modeled as fixed effects, whereas spatial references to the communities were modeled as structured and unstructured spatial effects. Results We observe that the risk of cholera is associated with slum settlements and high population density. The risk of cholera is equal and lower for communities with fewer refuse dumps, but variable and higher for communities with more refuse dumps. The risk is also lower for communities distant from refuse dumps and potential cholera reservoirs. The results also indicate distinct spatial variation in the risk of cholera infection. Conclusion The study highlights the usefulness of Bayesian semi-parametric regression model analyzing public health data. These findings could serve as novel information to help health planners and policy makers in making effective decisions to control or prevent cholera epidemics. PMID:22866662

Solving large test-day models by iteration on data and preconditioned conjugate gradient.

PubMed

Lidauer, M; Strandén, I; Mäntysaari, E A; Pösö, J; Kettunen, A

1999-12-01

A preconditioned conjugate gradient method was implemented into an iteration on a program for data estimation of breeding values, and its convergence characteristics were studied. An algorithm was used as a reference in which one fixed effect was solved by Gauss-Seidel method, and other effects were solved by a second-order Jacobi method. Implementation of the preconditioned conjugate gradient required storing four vectors (size equal to number of unknowns in the mixed model equations) in random access memory and reading the data at each round of iteration. The preconditioner comprised diagonal blocks of the coefficient matrix. Comparison of algorithms was based on solutions of mixed model equations obtained by a single-trait animal model and a single-trait, random regression test-day model. Data sets for both models used milk yield records of primiparous Finnish dairy cows. Animal model data comprised 665,629 lactation milk yields and random regression test-day model data of 6,732,765 test-day milk yields. Both models included pedigree information of 1,099,622 animals. The animal model ¿random regression test-day model¿ required 122 ¿305¿ rounds of iteration to converge with the reference algorithm, but only 88 ¿149¿ were required with the preconditioned conjugate gradient. To solve the random regression test-day model with the preconditioned conjugate gradient required 237 megabytes of random access memory and took 14% of the computation time needed by the reference algorithm.

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 1. Theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1982-01-01

Prior information on the parameters of a groundwater flow model can be used to improve parameter estimates obtained from nonlinear regression solution of a modeling problem. Two scales of prior information can be available: (1) prior information having known reliability (that is, bias and random error structure) and (2) prior information consisting of best available estimates of unknown reliability. A regression method that incorporates the second scale of prior information assumes the prior information to be fixed for any particular analysis to produce improved, although biased, parameter estimates. Approximate optimization of two auxiliary parameters of the formulation is used to help minimize the bias, which is almost always much smaller than that resulting from standard ridge regression. It is shown that if both scales of prior information are available, then a combined regression analysis may be made.

Comparison of four methods for deriving hospital standardised mortality ratios from a single hierarchical logistic regression model.

PubMed

Mohammed, Mohammed A; Manktelow, Bradley N; Hofer, Timothy P

2016-04-01

There is interest in deriving case-mix adjusted standardised mortality ratios so that comparisons between healthcare providers, such as hospitals, can be undertaken in the controversial belief that variability in standardised mortality ratios reflects quality of care. Typically standardised mortality ratios are derived using a fixed effects logistic regression model, without a hospital term in the model. This fails to account for the hierarchical structure of the data - patients nested within hospitals - and so a hierarchical logistic regression model is more appropriate. However, four methods have been advocated for deriving standardised mortality ratios from a hierarchical logistic regression model, but their agreement is not known and neither do we know which is to be preferred. We found significant differences between the four types of standardised mortality ratios because they reflect a range of underlying conceptual issues. The most subtle issue is the distinction between asking how an average patient fares in different hospitals versus how patients at a given hospital fare at an average hospital. Since the answers to these questions are not the same and since the choice between these two approaches is not obvious, the extent to which profiling hospitals on mortality can be undertaken safely and reliably, without resolving these methodological issues, remains questionable. © The Author(s) 2012.

Longitudinal analysis of high-technology medical services and hospital financial performance.

PubMed

Zengul, Ferhat D; Weech-Maldonado, Robert; Ozaydin, Bunyamin; Patrician, Patricia A; OʼConnor, Stephen J

U.S. hospitals have been investing in high-technology medical services as a strategy to improve financial performance. Despite the interest in high-tech medical services, there is not much information available about the impact of high-tech services on financial performance. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of high-tech medical services on financial performance of U.S. hospitals by using the resource-based view of the firm as a conceptual framework. Fixed-effects regressions with 2 years lagged independent variables using a longitudinal panel sample of 3,268 hospitals (2005-2010). It was hypothesized that hospitals with rare or large numbers (breadth) of high-tech medical services will experience better financial performance. Fixed effects regression results supported the link between a larger breadth of high-tech services and total margin, but only among not-for-profit hospitals. Both breadth and rareness of high-tech services were associated with high total margin among not-for-profit hospitals. Neither breadth nor rareness of high-tech services was associated with operating margin. Although breadth and rareness of high-tech services resulted in lower expenses per inpatient day among not-for-profit hospitals, these lower costs were offset by lower revenues per inpatient day. Enhancing the breadth of high-tech services may be a legitimate organizational strategy to improve financial performance, especially among not-for-profit hospitals. Hospitals may experience increased productivity and efficiency, and therefore lower inpatient operating costs, as a result of newer technologies. However, the negative impact on operating revenue should caution hospital administrators about revenue reducing features of these technologies, which may be related to the payer mix that these technologies may attract. Therefore, managers should consider both the cost and revenue implications of these technologies.

Estimating the price elasticity of beer: meta-analysis of data with heterogeneity, dependence, and publication bias.

PubMed

Nelson, Jon P

2014-01-01

Precise estimates of price elasticities are important for alcohol tax policy. Using meta-analysis, this paper corrects average beer elasticities for heterogeneity, dependence, and publication selection bias. A sample of 191 estimates is obtained from 114 primary studies. Simple and weighted means are reported. Dependence is addressed by restricting number of estimates per study, author-restricted samples, and author-specific variables. Publication bias is addressed using funnel graph, trim-and-fill, and Egger's intercept model. Heterogeneity and selection bias are examined jointly in meta-regressions containing moderator variables for econometric methodology, primary data, and precision of estimates. Results for fixed- and random-effects regressions are reported. Country-specific effects and sample time periods are unimportant, but several methodology variables help explain the dispersion of estimates. In models that correct for selection bias and heterogeneity, the average beer price elasticity is about -0.20, which is less elastic by 50% compared to values commonly used in alcohol tax policy simulations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of State Public Health Spending on Disease Incidence in the United States from 1980 to 2009.

PubMed

Verma, Reetu; Clark, Samantha; Leider, Jonathon; Bishai, David

2017-02-01

To understand the relationship between state-level spending by public health departments and the incidence of three vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs): mumps, pertussis, and rubella in the United States from 1980 to 2009. This study uses state-level public health spending data from The Census Bureau and annual mumps, pertussis, and rubella incidence counts from the University of Pittsburgh's project Tycho. Ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects, and random effects regression models were tested, with results indicating that a fixed effects model would be most appropriate model for this analysis. Model output suggests a statistically significant, negative relationship between public health spending and mumps and rubella incidence. Lagging outcome variables indicate that public health spending actually has the greatest impact on VPD incidence in subsequent years, rather than the year in which the spending occurred. Results were robust to models with lagged spending variables, national time trends, and state time trends, as well as models with and without Medicaid and hospital spending. Our analysis indicates that there is evidence of a significant, negative relationship between a state's public health spending and the incidence of two VPDs, mumps and rubella, in the United States. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Targeting trachoma control through risk mapping: the example of Southern Sudan.

PubMed

Clements, Archie C A; Kur, Lucia W; Gatpan, Gideon; Ngondi, Jeremiah M; Emerson, Paul M; Lado, Mounir; Sabasio, Anthony; Kolaczinski, Jan H

2010-08-17

Trachoma is a major cause of blindness in Southern Sudan. Its distribution has only been partially established and many communities in need of intervention have therefore not been identified or targeted. The present study aimed to develop a tool to improve targeting of survey and control activities. A national trachoma risk map was developed using Bayesian geostatistics models, incorporating trachoma prevalence data from 112 geo-referenced communities surveyed between 2001 and 2009. Logistic regression models were developed using active trachoma (trachomatous inflammation follicular and/or trachomatous inflammation intense) in 6345 children aged 1-9 years as the outcome, and incorporating fixed effects for age, long-term average rainfall (interpolated from weather station data) and land cover (i.e. vegetation type, derived from satellite remote sensing), as well as geostatistical random effects describing spatial clustering of trachoma. The model predicted the west of the country to be at no or low trachoma risk. Trachoma clusters in the central, northern and eastern areas had a radius of 8 km after accounting for the fixed effects. In Southern Sudan, large-scale spatial variation in the risk of active trachoma infection is associated with aridity. Spatial prediction has identified likely high-risk areas to be prioritized for more data collection, potentially to be followed by intervention.

Targeting Trachoma Control through Risk Mapping: The Example of Southern Sudan

PubMed Central

Clements, Archie C. A.; Kur, Lucia W.; Gatpan, Gideon; Ngondi, Jeremiah M.; Emerson, Paul M.; Lado, Mounir; Sabasio, Anthony; Kolaczinski, Jan H.

2010-01-01

Background Trachoma is a major cause of blindness in Southern Sudan. Its distribution has only been partially established and many communities in need of intervention have therefore not been identified or targeted. The present study aimed to develop a tool to improve targeting of survey and control activities. Methods/Principal Findings A national trachoma risk map was developed using Bayesian geostatistics models, incorporating trachoma prevalence data from 112 geo-referenced communities surveyed between 2001 and 2009. Logistic regression models were developed using active trachoma (trachomatous inflammation follicular and/or trachomatous inflammation intense) in 6345 children aged 1–9 years as the outcome, and incorporating fixed effects for age, long-term average rainfall (interpolated from weather station data) and land cover (i.e. vegetation type, derived from satellite remote sensing), as well as geostatistical random effects describing spatial clustering of trachoma. The model predicted the west of the country to be at no or low trachoma risk. Trachoma clusters in the central, northern and eastern areas had a radius of 8 km after accounting for the fixed effects. Conclusion In Southern Sudan, large-scale spatial variation in the risk of active trachoma infection is associated with aridity. Spatial prediction has identified likely high-risk areas to be prioritized for more data collection, potentially to be followed by intervention. PMID:20808910

Breastfeeding and intelligence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Horta, Bernardo L; Loret de Mola, Christian; Victora, Cesar G

2015-12-01

This study was aimed at systematically reviewing evidence of the association between breastfeeding and performance in intelligence tests. Two independent searches were carried out using Medline, LILACS, SCIELO and Web of Science. Studies restricted to infants and those where estimates were not adjusted for stimulation or interaction at home were excluded. Fixed- and random-effects models were used to pool the effect estimates, and a random-effects regression was used to assess potential sources of heterogeneity. We included 17 studies with 18 estimates of the relationship between breastfeeding and performance in intelligence tests. In a random-effects model, breastfed subjects achieved a higher IQ [mean difference: 3.44 points (95% confidence interval: 2.30; 4.58)]. We found no evidence of publication bias. Studies that controlled for maternal IQ showed a smaller benefit from breastfeeding [mean difference 2.62 points (95% confidence interval: 1.25; 3.98)]. In the meta-regression, none of the study characteristics explained the heterogeneity among the studies. Breastfeeding is related to improved performance in intelligence tests. A positive effect of breastfeeding on cognition was also observed in a randomised trial. This suggests that the association is causal. ©2015 The Authors. Acta Paediatrica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Success course intervention for students on academic probation in science majors: A longitudinal quantitative examination of the treatment effects on performance, persistence, and graduation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Zachary L.

2011-12-01

With increasing external and internal pressure to increase retention and graduation rates in select colleges along with increasing numbers of college-going populations over time, student affairs professionals have responded with a variety of programs to support students' transition to college. This study sought to examine freshman students in science majors went on academic probation at the end of their first semester. If these students did not raise their GPAs quickly, they faced academic dismissal from the institution. Consequently, the institution would not be able to retain them, and ultimately, they would not graduate. Managerial professionals at the institution created, implemented, and evaluated an intervention in the form of a success course for these students to help get them back on track, retain them, and ultimately graduate from the institution. The literatures drawn upon for this study included retention theory, probationary student behaviors and attitudes, interventions, success courses, fear appeal theories, academic capitalism, and institutional isomorphism. The study employed tests including chi-square, logistic regressions, and differences-in-differences fixed effects regressions to identify the differences and effects on performance, persistence, and graduation rates of the treatment and comparison groups. The findings of this study showed significant differences between the persistence and graduation rates of the treatment and control groups, and regression effects showed a short-term causal effect on performance as well as significant likelihoods of persisting and graduating within four or five years. Recommendations for further improvements to interventions are discussed in the final chapter.

Reversed inverse regression for the univariate linear calibration and its statistical properties derived using a new methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Pilsang; Koo, Changhoi; Roh, Hokyu

2017-11-01

Since simple linear regression theory was established at the beginning of the 1900s, it has been used in a variety of fields. Unfortunately, it cannot be used directly for calibration. In practical calibrations, the observed measurements (the inputs) are subject to errors, and hence they vary, thus violating the assumption that the inputs are fixed. Therefore, in the case of calibration, the regression line fitted using the method of least squares is not consistent with the statistical properties of simple linear regression as already established based on this assumption. To resolve this problem, "classical regression" and "inverse regression" have been proposed. However, they do not completely resolve the problem. As a fundamental solution, we introduce "reversed inverse regression" along with a new methodology for deriving its statistical properties. In this study, the statistical properties of this regression are derived using the "error propagation rule" and the "method of simultaneous error equations" and are compared with those of the existing regression approaches. The accuracy of the statistical properties thus derived is investigated in a simulation study. We conclude that the newly proposed regression and methodology constitute the complete regression approach for univariate linear calibrations.

Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

2005-01-01

Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

Random effects coefficient of determination for mixed and meta-analysis models

PubMed Central

Demidenko, Eugene; Sargent, James; Onega, Tracy

2011-01-01

The key feature of a mixed model is the presence of random effects. We have developed a coefficient, called the random effects coefficient of determination, Rr2, that estimates the proportion of the conditional variance of the dependent variable explained by random effects. This coefficient takes values from 0 to 1 and indicates how strong the random effects are. The difference from the earlier suggested fixed effects coefficient of determination is emphasized. If Rr2 is close to 0, there is weak support for random effects in the model because the reduction of the variance of the dependent variable due to random effects is small; consequently, random effects may be ignored and the model simplifies to standard linear regression. The value of Rr2 apart from 0 indicates the evidence of the variance reduction in support of the mixed model. If random effects coefficient of determination is close to 1 the variance of random effects is very large and random effects turn into free fixed effects—the model can be estimated using the dummy variable approach. We derive explicit formulas for Rr2 in three special cases: the random intercept model, the growth curve model, and meta-analysis model. Theoretical results are illustrated with three mixed model examples: (1) travel time to the nearest cancer center for women with breast cancer in the U.S., (2) cumulative time watching alcohol related scenes in movies among young U.S. teens, as a risk factor for early drinking onset, and (3) the classic example of the meta-analysis model for combination of 13 studies on tuberculosis vaccine. PMID:23750070

A prospective 10-year study of metal ceramic single crowns and fixed dental prosthesis retainers in private practice settings.

PubMed

Reitemeier, Bernd; Hänsel, Kristina; Kastner, Christian; Weber, Anke; Walter, Michael H

2013-03-01

Metal ceramic restorations are widely used in prosthodontics, but long-term data on their clinical performance in private practice settings based on prospective trials are sparse. This clinical trial was designed to provide realistic long-term survival rates for different outcomes related to tooth loss, crown loss, and metal ceramic defect. Ninety-five participants were provided with 190 noble metal ceramic single crowns and 138 participants with 276 fixed dental prosthesis retainer crowns on vital posterior teeth. Follow-up examinations were scheduled 2 weeks after insertion, annually up to 8 years, and after 10 years. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, Mantel-Cox logrank tests, and Cox regression analyses were conducted. Because of variations in the time of the last examinations, the maximum observation period was 12.1 years. For the primary outcome 'loss of crown or tooth', the Kaplan-Meier survival rate was 94.3% ±1.8% (standard error) at 8.0 years (last outcome event) for single crowns and 94.4% ±1.5% at 11.0 years for fixed dental prosthesis retainer crowns. The difference between the survival functions was not significant (P>.05). For the secondary outcome 'metal ceramic defect', the survival rate was 88.8% ±3.2% at 11.0 years for single crowns and 81.7% ±3.5% at 11.0 years for fixed dental prosthesis retainer crowns. In Cox regression models, the only significant covariates for the outcome event 'metal ceramic defect' were bruxism in the medical history (single crowns) and signs and symptoms of bruxism (fixed dental prosthesis retainer crowns) with hazard ratios of 3.065 (95% CI 1.063 - 8.832) and 2.554 (95% CI 1.307 - 4.992). Metal ceramic crowns provided in private practice settings show good longevity. Bruxism appears to indicate a risk for metal ceramic defects. Copyright © 2013 The Editorial Council of the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Quasi-experimental study designs series-paper 7: assessing the assumptions.

PubMed

Bärnighausen, Till; Oldenburg, Catherine; Tugwell, Peter; Bommer, Christian; Ebert, Cara; Barreto, Mauricio; Djimeu, Eric; Haber, Noah; Waddington, Hugh; Rockers, Peter; Sianesi, Barbara; Bor, Jacob; Fink, Günther; Valentine, Jeffrey; Tanner, Jeffrey; Stanley, Tom; Sierra, Eduardo; Tchetgen, Eric Tchetgen; Atun, Rifat; Vollmer, Sebastian

2017-09-01

Quasi-experimental designs are gaining popularity in epidemiology and health systems research-in particular for the evaluation of health care practice, programs, and policy-because they allow strong causal inferences without randomized controlled experiments. We describe the concepts underlying five important quasi-experimental designs: Instrumental Variables, Regression Discontinuity, Interrupted Time Series, Fixed Effects, and Difference-in-Differences designs. We illustrate each of the designs with an example from health research. We then describe the assumptions required for each of the designs to ensure valid causal inference and discuss the tests available to examine the assumptions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do More of Those in Misery Suffer from Poverty, Unemployment or Mental Illness?

PubMed Central

Flèche, Sarah

2017-01-01

SUMMARY Studies of deprivation usually ignore mental illness. This paper uses household panel data from the USA, Australia, Britain and Germany to broaden the analysis. We ask first how many of those in the lowest levels of life-satisfaction suffer from unemployment, poverty, physical ill health, and mental illness. The largest proportion suffers from mental illness. Multiple regression shows that mental illness is not highly correlated with poverty or unemployment, and that it contributes more to explaining the presence of misery than is explained by either poverty or unemployment. This holds both with and without fixed effects. PMID:28729747

Association between economic fluctuations and road mortality in OECD countries.

PubMed

Chen, Gang

2014-08-01

Using longitudinal data from 32 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (1970-2010), this article investigates association between annual variations in road mortality and the economic fluctuations. Two regression models (fixed-effects and random-coefficients) were adopted for estimation. The cross-country data analyses suggested that road mortality is pro-cyclical and that the cyclicality is symmetric. Based on data from 32 OECD countries, an increase of on average 1% in economic growth is associated with a 1.1% increase in road mortality, and vice versa. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Alcohol taxes and birth outcomes.

PubMed

Zhang, Ning

2010-05-01

This study examines the relationships between alcohol taxation, drinking during pregnancy, and infant health. Merged data from the US Natality Detailed Files, as well as the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (1985-2002), data regarding state taxes on beer, wine, and liquor, a state- and year-fixed-effect reduced-form regression were used. Results indicate that a one-cent ($0.01) increase in beer taxes decreased the incidence of low-birth-weight by about 1-2 percentage points. The binge drinking participation tax elasticity is -2.5 for beer and wine taxes and -9 for liquor taxes. These results demonstrate the potential intergenerational impact of increasing alcohol taxes.

Alcohol Taxes and Birth Outcomes

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ning

2010-01-01

This study examines the relationships between alcohol taxation, drinking during pregnancy, and infant health. Merged data from the US Natality Detailed Files, as well as the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (1985–2002), data regarding state taxes on beer, wine, and liquor, a state- and year-fixed-effect reduced-form regression were used. Results indicate that a one-cent ($0.01) increase in beer taxes decreased the incidence of low-birth-weight by about 1–2 percentage points. The binge drinking participation tax elasticity is −2.5 for beer and wine taxes and −9 for liquor taxes. These results demonstrate the potential intergenerational impact of increasing alcohol taxes. PMID:20623000

Usefulness of automatic QT dispersion measurement for detecting exercise-induced myocardial ischemia.

PubMed

Takase, Bonpei; Masaki, Nobuyuki; Hattori, Hidemi; Ishihara, Masayuki; Kurita, Akira

2009-06-01

The electrocardiographic index of QT dispersion (QTd) is related to the occurrence of arrhythmia. In patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease, QTd may be affected by exercise. We investigated whether QTd that is automatically calculated by a newly developed computer system could be used as a marker of exercise-induced myocardial ischemia. The design of this study was prospective and observational. Eighty-three consecutive patients were enrolled in this study. Their QTd was measured at rest and after 3 min of exercise during exercise-stress Thallium-201 scintigraphy and compared with conventional ST-segment changes. The patients were classified into 4 groups (normal group, redistribution group, fixed defect group, redistribution with fixed defect group) based on the result of single photon emission computed tomography. As statistical analysis, one-way ANOVA with post-hoc Scheffe's method, receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed. At rest, QTd was significantly greater (p<0.05) in the fixed defect group (52+/-21 ms) and the redistribution with fixed defect group (53+/-20 ms) than in the normal group (32+/-14 ms) and the redistribution group (31+/-16 ms). However, QTd tended to increase after exercise in the redistribution group, while QTd tended to decrease in the normal group, the fixed defect group, and the redistribution with fixed defect group (QTd after exercise, normal group, 28+/-17 ms, redistribution group, 35+/-19 ms, fixed defect group, 43+/-25 ms, redistribution with fixed defect group, 49+/-27 ms). Exercise significantly increased QTcd (RR interval-corrected QT dispersion) in the redistribution group. The best cut-off values of QTd and QTcd obtained from ROC curves for exercise-induced myocardial ischemia were 41.6 ms and 40.4 ms, respectively (Qtd--AUC 0.68, 95%CI 0.53- 0.83 and QTcd--AUC 0.67, 95%CI 0.55-0.80). Using these values as cut-off ones, QTd, QTcd, and conventional ST-segment change had comparable sensitivities and specificities for detecting exercise-induced myocardial ischemia (sensitivity - 60%, 58% and 49%, respectively;specificity - 78%, 80% and 83%, respectively). In addition, multiple logistic regression analysis showed that QTd (OR=2.01, 95%CI 1.15-4.10, p<0.05), QTcd (OR=2.12, 95% CI 1.02-4.30, p<0.05) and ST-segment change (OR=1.89, 95%CI 1.03-3.40, p<0.05), were the significantly associated with exercise-induced myocardial ischemia. QT dispersion and/or QTcd after exercise could be a useful marker for exercise-induced myocardial ischemia in routine clinical practice.

Academic achievement and course taking among language minority youth in U.S. schools: Effects of ESL placement

PubMed Central

Callahan, Rebecca; Wilkinson, Lindsey; Muller, Chandra

2014-01-01

The 1974 Lau decision requires that U.S. public schools ensure a meaningful education for students learning English. English as a Second Language (ESL) placement is an institutional response to the linguistic needs of these students; however, its academic implications remain largely unexplored. Using nationally representative data from the Educational Longitudinal Study (ELS), the effects of ESL placement on college preparatory course enrollment and academic achievement of language minority students are estimated, first with fixed effects regression models and then with multi-level propensity score matching techniques. While numerous school and individual level factors beyond language proficiency predict ESL placement, a significant negative estimated effect of ESL placement on science enrollment and cumulative GPA is consistently found. Perhaps more important, however, no positive effects of ESL placement on the achievement of language minority youth are found when accounting for English proficiency and other potential covariates. PMID:25431506

Academic achievement and course taking among language minority youth in U.S. schools: Effects of ESL placement.

PubMed

Callahan, Rebecca; Wilkinson, Lindsey; Muller, Chandra

2010-03-01

The 1974 Lau decision requires that U.S. public schools ensure a meaningful education for students learning English. English as a Second Language (ESL) placement is an institutional response to the linguistic needs of these students; however, its academic implications remain largely unexplored. Using nationally representative data from the Educational Longitudinal Study (ELS), the effects of ESL placement on college preparatory course enrollment and academic achievement of language minority students are estimated, first with fixed effects regression models and then with multi-level propensity score matching techniques. While numerous school and individual level factors beyond language proficiency predict ESL placement, a significant negative estimated effect of ESL placement on science enrollment and cumulative GPA is consistently found. Perhaps more important, however, no positive effects of ESL placement on the achievement of language minority youth are found when accounting for English proficiency and other potential covariates.

The demand for statin: the effect of copay on utilization and compliance.

PubMed

Thiebaud, Patrick; Patel, Bimal V; Nichol, Michael B

2008-01-01

Increasing drug costs in the US have prompted employers and insurers alike to turn to higher drug copays for cost containment. The effect of rising copays on compliance with statins (HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors) treatment has received surprisingly little attention in the applied literature. This paper uses pharmacy claims data from a commercially insured adult population to determine the effect of copay change on compliance at the individual level. Fixed effect logit and Poisson regressions estimate the effect of copays on monthly likelihood of high compliance and average monthly days of supply respectively. Higher copays reduce compliance among statin users, with less compliant patients responding more strongly to copay change than compliant patients. These results suggest that specific financial incentives given to less compliant patients could improve compliance with statin treatment at a relatively low cost. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimation of left ventricular mass in conscious dogs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coleman, Bernell; Cothran, Laval N.; Ison-Franklin, E. L.; Hawthorne, E. W.

1986-01-01

A method for the assessment of the development or the regression of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in a conscious instrumented animal is described. First, the single-slice short-axis area-length method for estimating the left-ventricular mass (LVM) and volume (LVV) was validated in 24 formaldehyde-fixed canine hearts, and a regression equation was developed that could be used in the intact animal to correct the sonomicrometrically estimated LVM. The LVM-assessment method, which uses the combined techniques of echocardiography and sonomicrometry (in conjunction with the regression equation), was shown to provide reliable and reproducible day-to-day estimates of LVM and LVV, and to be sensitive enough to detect serial changes during the development of LVH.

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Mercadante, M E Z; Lôbo, R B; Baldi, F; Albuquerque, L G

2012-02-01

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

Multidimensional stochastic approximation using locally contractive functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawton, W. M.

1975-01-01

A Robbins-Monro type multidimensional stochastic approximation algorithm which converges in mean square and with probability one to the fixed point of a locally contractive regression function is developed. The algorithm is applied to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of multivariate normal distributions.

The impact of tiered physician networks on patient choices.

PubMed

Sinaiko, Anna D; Rosenthal, Meredith B

2014-08-01

To assess whether patient choice of physician or health plan was affected by physician tier-rankings. Administrative claims and enrollment data on 171,581 nonelderly beneficiaries enrolled in Massachusetts Group Insurance Commission health plans that include a tiered physician network and who had an office visit with a tiered physician. We estimate the impact of tier-rankings on physician market share within a plan of new patients and on the percent of a physician's patients who switch to other physicians with fixed effects regression models. The effect of tiering on consumer plan choice is estimated using logistic regression and a pre-post study design. Physicians in the bottom (least-preferred) tier, particularly certain specialist physicians, had lower market share of new patient visits than physicians with higher tier-rankings. Patients whose physician was in the bottom tier were more likely to switch health plans. There was no effect of tier-ranking on patients switching away from physicians whom they have seen previously. The effect of tiering appears to be among patients who choose new physicians and at the lower end of the distribution of tiered physicians, rather than moving patients to the "best" performers. These findings suggest strong loyalty of patients to physicians more likely to be considered their personal doctor. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

The effect of the water tariff structures on the water consumption in Mallorcan hotels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deyà-Tortella, Bartolomé; Garcia, Celso; Nilsson, William; Tirado, Dolores

2016-08-01

Tourism increases water demand, especially in coastal areas and on islands, and can also cause water shortages during the dry season and the degradation of the water supply. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of water price structures on hotel water consumption on the island of Mallorca (Spain). All tourist municipalities on the island use different pricing structures, such as flat or block rates, and different tariffs. This exogenous variation is used to evaluate the effect of prices on water consumption for a sample of 134 hotels. The discontinuity of the water tariff structure and the fixed rate, which depends on the number of hotel beds, generate endogeneity problems. We propose an econometric model, an instrumental variable quantile regression for within artificial blocks transformed data, to solve both problems. The coefficients corresponding to the price variables are not found to be significantly different from zero. The sign of the effect is negative, but the magnitude is negligible: a 1% increase in all prices would reduce consumption by an average of only 0.024%. This result is probably due to the small share of water costs with respect to the total hotel operational costs (around 4%). Our regression model concludes that the introduction of water-saving initiatives constitutes an effective way to reduce consumption.

Random Regression Models Using Legendre Polynomials to Estimate Genetic Parameters for Test-day Milk Protein Yields in Iranian Holstein Dairy Cattle.

PubMed

Naserkheil, Masoumeh; Miraie-Ashtiani, Seyed Reza; Nejati-Javaremi, Ardeshir; Son, Jihyun; Lee, Deukhwan

2016-12-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters of milk protein yields in Iranian Holstein dairy cattle. A total of 1,112,082 test-day milk protein yield records of 167,269 first lactation Holstein cows, calved from 1990 to 2010, were analyzed. Estimates of the variance components, heritability, and genetic correlations for milk protein yields were obtained using a random regression test-day model. Milking times, herd, age of recording, year, and month of recording were included as fixed effects in the model. Additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects for the lactation curve were taken into account by applying orthogonal Legendre polynomials of the fourth order in the model. The lowest and highest additive genetic variances were estimated at the beginning and end of lactation, respectively. Permanent environmental variance was higher at both extremes. Residual variance was lowest at the middle of the lactation and contrarily, heritability increased during this period. Maximum heritability was found during the 12th lactation stage (0.213±0.007). Genetic, permanent, and phenotypic correlations among test-days decreased as the interval between consecutive test-days increased. A relatively large data set was used in this study; therefore, the estimated (co)variance components for random regression coefficients could be used for national genetic evaluation of dairy cattle in Iran.

Random Regression Models Using Legendre Polynomials to Estimate Genetic Parameters for Test-day Milk Protein Yields in Iranian Holstein Dairy Cattle

PubMed Central

Naserkheil, Masoumeh; Miraie-Ashtiani, Seyed Reza; Nejati-Javaremi, Ardeshir; Son, Jihyun; Lee, Deukhwan

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters of milk protein yields in Iranian Holstein dairy cattle. A total of 1,112,082 test-day milk protein yield records of 167,269 first lactation Holstein cows, calved from 1990 to 2010, were analyzed. Estimates of the variance components, heritability, and genetic correlations for milk protein yields were obtained using a random regression test-day model. Milking times, herd, age of recording, year, and month of recording were included as fixed effects in the model. Additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects for the lactation curve were taken into account by applying orthogonal Legendre polynomials of the fourth order in the model. The lowest and highest additive genetic variances were estimated at the beginning and end of lactation, respectively. Permanent environmental variance was higher at both extremes. Residual variance was lowest at the middle of the lactation and contrarily, heritability increased during this period. Maximum heritability was found during the 12th lactation stage (0.213±0.007). Genetic, permanent, and phenotypic correlations among test-days decreased as the interval between consecutive test-days increased. A relatively large data set was used in this study; therefore, the estimated (co)variance components for random regression coefficients could be used for national genetic evaluation of dairy cattle in Iran. PMID:26954192

Does Stepwise Voltage Ramping Protect the Kidney from Injury During Extracorporeal Shockwave Lithotripsy? Results of a Prospective Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Skuginna, Veronika; Nguyen, Daniel P; Seiler, Roland; Kiss, Bernhard; Thalmann, George N; Roth, Beat

2016-02-01

Renal damage is more frequent with new-generation lithotripters. However, animal studies suggest that voltage ramping minimizes the risk of complications following extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (SWL). In the clinical setting, the optimal voltage strategy remains unclear. To evaluate whether stepwise voltage ramping can protect the kidney from damage during SWL. A total of 418 patients with solitary or multiple unilateral kidney stones were randomized to receive SWL using a Modulith SLX-F2 lithotripter with either stepwise voltage ramping (n=213) or a fixed maximal voltage (n=205). SWL. The primary outcome was sonographic evidence of renal hematomas. Secondary outcomes included levels of urinary markers of renal damage, stone disintegration, stone-free rate, and rates of secondary interventions within 3 mo of SWL. Descriptive statistics were used to compare clinical outcomes between the two groups. A logistic regression model was generated to assess predictors of hematomas. Significantly fewer hematomas occurred in the ramping group(12/213, 5.6%) than in the fixed group (27/205, 13%; p=0.008). There was some evidence that the fixed group had higher urinary β2-microglobulin levels after SWL compared to the ramping group (p=0.06). Urinary microalbumin levels, stone disintegration, stone-free rate, and rates of secondary interventions did not significantly differ between the groups. The logistic regression model showed a significantly higher risk of renal hematomas in older patients (odds ratio [OR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.05; p=0.04). Stepwise voltage ramping was associated with a lower risk of hematomas (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.19-0.80; p=0.01). The study was limited by the use of ultrasound to detect hematomas. In this prospective randomized study, stepwise voltage ramping during SWL was associated with a lower risk of renal damage compared to a fixed maximal voltage without compromising treatment effectiveness. Lithotripsy is a noninvasive technique for urinary stone disintegration using ultrasonic energy. In this study, two voltage strategies are compared. The results show that a progressive increase in voltage during lithotripsy decreases the risk of renal hematomas while maintaining excellent outcomes. ISRCTN95762080. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automatic Denoising of Functional MRI Data: Combining Independent Component Analysis and Hierarchical Fusion of Classifiers

PubMed Central

Salimi-Khorshidi, Gholamreza; Douaud, Gwenaëlle; Beckmann, Christian F; Glasser, Matthew F; Griffanti, Ludovica; Smith, Stephen M

2014-01-01

Many sources of fluctuation contribute to the fMRI signal, and this makes identifying the effects that are truly related to the underlying neuronal activity difficult. Independent component analysis (ICA) - one of the most widely used techniques for the exploratory analysis of fMRI data - has shown to be a powerful technique in identifying various sources of neuronally-related and artefactual fluctuation in fMRI data (both with the application of external stimuli and with the subject “at rest”). ICA decomposes fMRI data into patterns of activity (a set of spatial maps and their corresponding time series) that are statistically independent and add linearly to explain voxel-wise time series. Given the set of ICA components, if the components representing “signal” (brain activity) can be distinguished form the “noise” components (effects of motion, non-neuronal physiology, scanner artefacts and other nuisance sources), the latter can then be removed from the data, providing an effective cleanup of structured noise. Manual classification of components is labour intensive and requires expertise; hence, a fully automatic noise detection algorithm that can reliably detect various types of noise sources (in both task and resting fMRI) is desirable. In this paper, we introduce FIX (“FMRIB’s ICA-based X-noiseifier”), which provides an automatic solution for denoising fMRI data via accurate classification of ICA components. For each ICA component FIX generates a large number of distinct spatial and temporal features, each describing a different aspect of the data (e.g., what proportion of temporal fluctuations are at high frequencies). The set of features is then fed into a multi-level classifier (built around several different Classifiers). Once trained through the hand-classification of a sufficient number of training datasets, the classifier can then automatically classify new datasets. The noise components can then be subtracted from (or regressed out of) the original data, to provide automated cleanup. On conventional resting-state fMRI (rfMRI) single-run datasets, FIX achieved about 95% overall accuracy. On high-quality rfMRI data from the Human Connectome Project, FIX achieves over 99% classification accuracy, and as a result is being used in the default rfMRI processing pipeline for generating HCP connectomes. FIX is publicly available as a plugin for FSL. PMID:24389422

Time Series Analysis for Forecasting Hospital Census: Application to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Hoover, Stephen; Jackson, Eric V.; Paul, David; Locke, Robert

2016-01-01

Summary Background Accurate prediction of future patient census in hospital units is essential for patient safety, health outcomes, and resource planning. Forecasting census in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) is particularly challenging due to limited ability to control the census and clinical trajectories. The fixed average census approach, using average census from previous year, is a forecasting alternative used in clinical practice, but has limitations due to census variations. Objective Our objectives are to: (i) analyze the daily NICU census at a single health care facility and develop census forecasting models, (ii) explore models with and without patient data characteristics obtained at the time of admission, and (iii) evaluate accuracy of the models compared with the fixed average census approach. Methods We used five years of retrospective daily NICU census data for model development (January 2008 – December 2012, N=1827 observations) and one year of data for validation (January – December 2013, N=365 observations). Best-fitting models of ARIMA and linear regression were applied to various 7-day prediction periods and compared using error statistics. Results The census showed a slightly increasing linear trend. Best fitting models included a non-seasonal model, ARIMA(1,0,0), seasonal ARIMA models, ARIMA(1,0,0)x(1,1,2)7 and ARIMA(2,1,4)x(1,1,2)14, as well as a seasonal linear regression model. Proposed forecasting models resulted on average in 36.49% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared with the fixed average census approach. Conclusions Time series models provide higher prediction accuracy under different census conditions compared with the fixed average census approach. Presented methodology is easily applicable in clinical practice, can be generalized to other care settings, support short- and long-term census forecasting, and inform staff resource planning. PMID:27437040

Time Series Analysis for Forecasting Hospital Census: Application to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Capan, Muge; Hoover, Stephen; Jackson, Eric V; Paul, David; Locke, Robert

2016-01-01

Accurate prediction of future patient census in hospital units is essential for patient safety, health outcomes, and resource planning. Forecasting census in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) is particularly challenging due to limited ability to control the census and clinical trajectories. The fixed average census approach, using average census from previous year, is a forecasting alternative used in clinical practice, but has limitations due to census variations. Our objectives are to: (i) analyze the daily NICU census at a single health care facility and develop census forecasting models, (ii) explore models with and without patient data characteristics obtained at the time of admission, and (iii) evaluate accuracy of the models compared with the fixed average census approach. We used five years of retrospective daily NICU census data for model development (January 2008 - December 2012, N=1827 observations) and one year of data for validation (January - December 2013, N=365 observations). Best-fitting models of ARIMA and linear regression were applied to various 7-day prediction periods and compared using error statistics. The census showed a slightly increasing linear trend. Best fitting models included a non-seasonal model, ARIMA(1,0,0), seasonal ARIMA models, ARIMA(1,0,0)x(1,1,2)7 and ARIMA(2,1,4)x(1,1,2)14, as well as a seasonal linear regression model. Proposed forecasting models resulted on average in 36.49% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared with the fixed average census approach. Time series models provide higher prediction accuracy under different census conditions compared with the fixed average census approach. Presented methodology is easily applicable in clinical practice, can be generalized to other care settings, support short- and long-term census forecasting, and inform staff resource planning.

The risk of traumatic lumbar punctures in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

PubMed

Shaikh, Furqan; Voicu, Laura; Tole, Soumitra; To, Teresa; Doria, Andrea S; Sung, Lillian; Alexander, Sarah

2014-05-01

Traumatic lumbar punctures with blasts (TLP+) in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) obscure central nervous system status and are associated with a poorer event-free survival (EFS). We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all lumbar punctures (LPs) for children with ALL diagnosed at our institution from 2005 to 2009. We utilised random-effects and fixed-effects repeated-measures logistic regression analyses to identify risk factors for TLPs. Fixed-effects models use each patient as his or her own control. We used survival analysis to describe outcomes after a TLP+. 264 children underwent 5267 evaluable lumbar punctures (LPs), of which 944 (17.9%) were traumatic. In the multivariable random-effects model, variables significantly associated with TLPs were age <1year (odds ratio (OR) 3.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.06-5.81) or age ⩾10years (OR 2.00, CI 1.66-2.40); body mass index percentile ⩾95 (OR 1.44, CI 1.19-1.75); platelet count <100×10(3)/μL (OR 1.49, CI 1.08-20.7); fewer days since previous LP (OR 5.13, CI 2.34-11.25 for ⩾16days versus 0-3days); and a preceding TLP (OR 1.43, CI 1.19-1.73). In the fixed-effects model, image-guidance reduced the odds of TLP (OR 0.55, CI 0.32-0.95). The 5-year EFS (±SE) for children with TLP+ (77±8%) was significantly lower than for children with CNS1 status (93±2%; p=0.002). The frequency of TLP remains high. Consistent with previous studies, a TLP+ at diagnosis was associated with a poorer EFS. These risk factors can allow identifying interventions to reduce TLPs and directing interventions to those at highest risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Friendships Lost: The Social Consequences of Violent Victimization.

PubMed

Wallace, Lacey N; Ménard, Kim S

2017-01-01

Few studies have examined the impact of violent victimization on friendship networks. This study used two waves of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) to examine the effects of violent victimization on number peer- and self-reported friendships. Guided by stigma theory (Goffman, 1963), fixed-effect regression models controlling for depression, delinquency, substance use, and school engagement were completed to predict changes in number of friends following victimization. Consistent with the theory, results indicate that experiencing violent victimization (e.g., jumped, stabbed, shot at) was associated with a decrease in number of friends. These effects were magnified for females and for individuals with a greater number of depressive symptoms. These results were consistent even when models were run separately for each individual type of victimization. Treatment and prevention implications are discussed.

The impact of downsizing on remaining workers' sickness absence.

PubMed

Østhus, Ståle; Mastekaasa, Arne

2010-10-01

It is generally assumed that organizational downsizing has considerable negative consequences, not only for workers that are laid off, but also for those who remain employed. The empirical evidence with regard to effects on sickness absence is, however, inconsistent. This study employs register data covering a major part of the total workforce in Norway over the period 2000-2003. The number of sickness absence episodes and the number of sickness absence days are analysed by means of Poisson regression. To control for both observed and unobserved stable individual characteristics, we use conditional (fixed effects) estimation. The analyses provide some weak indications that downsizing may lead to slightly less sickness absence, but the overall impression is that downsizing has few if any effects on the sickness absence of the remaining employees. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient Regressions via Optimally Combining Quantile Information*

PubMed Central

Zhao, Zhibiao; Xiao, Zhijie

2014-01-01

We develop a generally applicable framework for constructing efficient estimators of regression models via quantile regressions. The proposed method is based on optimally combining information over multiple quantiles and can be applied to a broad range of parametric and nonparametric settings. When combining information over a fixed number of quantiles, we derive an upper bound on the distance between the efficiency of the proposed estimator and the Fisher information. As the number of quantiles increases, this upper bound decreases and the asymptotic variance of the proposed estimator approaches the Cramér-Rao lower bound under appropriate conditions. In the case of non-regular statistical estimation, the proposed estimator leads to super-efficient estimation. We illustrate the proposed method for several widely used regression models. Both asymptotic theory and Monte Carlo experiments show the superior performance over existing methods. PMID:25484481

Assessing the disturbance potential of small unoccupied aircraft systems (UAS) on gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) at breeding colonies in Nova Scotia, Canada

PubMed Central

Arona, Lauren; Dale, Julian; Heaslip, Susan G.; Hammill, Michael O.

2018-01-01

The use of small unoccupied aircraft systems (UAS) for ecological studies and wildlife population assessments is increasing. These methods can provide significant benefits in terms of costs and reductions in human risk, but little is known if UAS-based approaches cause disturbance of animals during operations. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a series of UAS flights at gray seal breeding colonies on Hay and Saddle Islands in Nova Scotia, Canada. Using a small fixed-wing UAS, we assessed both immediate and short-term effects of surveys using sequential image analysis and between-flight seal counts in ten, 50 m2 random quadrats at each colony. Counts of adult gray seals and young-of-the-year animals between first and second flights revealed no changes in abundance in quadrats (matched pair t-test p > 0.69) and slopes approaching 1 for linear regression comparisons (r2 > 0.80). Sequential image analysis revealed no changes in orientation or posture of imaged animals. We also assessed the acoustic properties of the small UAS in relation to low ambient noise conditions using sound equivalent level (Leq) measurements with a calibrated U-MIK 1 and a 1/3 octave band soundscape approach. The results of Leq measurements indicate that small fixed-wing UAS are quiet, with most energy above 160 Hz, and that levels across 1/3 octave bands do not greatly exceed ambient acoustic measurements in a quiet field during operations at standard survey altitudes. As such, this platform is unlikely to acoustically disturb gray seals at breeding colonies during population surveys. The results of the present study indicate that the effects of small fixed-wing UAS on gray seals at breeding colonies are negligible, and that fixed-wing UAS-based approaches should be considered amongst best practices for assessing gray seal colonies. PMID:29576950

Young Women’s Dynamic Family Size Preferences in the Context of Transitioning Fertility

PubMed Central

Yeatman, Sara; Sennott, Christie; Culpepper, Steven

2013-01-01

Dynamic theories of family size preferences posit that they are not a fixed and stable goal but rather are akin to a moving target that changes within individuals over time. Nonetheless, in high-fertility contexts, changes in family size preferences tend to be attributed to low construct validity and measurement error instead of genuine revisions in preferences. To address the appropriateness of this incongruity, the present study examines evidence for the sequential model of fertility among a sample of young Malawian women living in a context of transitioning fertility. Using eight waves of closely spaced data and fixed-effects models, we find that these women frequently change their reported family size preferences and that these changes are often associated with changes in their relationship and reproductive circumstances. The predictability of change gives credence to the argument that ideal family size is a meaningful construct, even in this higher-fertility setting. Changes are not equally predictable across all women, however, and gamma regression results demonstrate that women for whom reproduction is a more distant goal change their fertility preferences in less-predictable ways. PMID:23619999

Young women's dynamic family size preferences in the context of transitioning fertility.

PubMed

Yeatman, Sara; Sennott, Christie; Culpepper, Steven

2013-10-01

Dynamic theories of family size preferences posit that they are not a fixed and stable goal but rather are akin to a moving target that changes within individuals over time. Nonetheless, in high-fertility contexts, changes in family size preferences tend to be attributed to low construct validity and measurement error instead of genuine revisions in preferences. To address the appropriateness of this incongruity, the present study examines evidence for the sequential model of fertility among a sample of young Malawian women living in a context of transitioning fertility. Using eight waves of closely spaced data and fixed-effects models, we find that these women frequently change their reported family size preferences and that these changes are often associated with changes in their relationship and reproductive circumstances. The predictability of change gives credence to the argument that ideal family size is a meaningful construct, even in this higher-fertility setting. Changes are not equally predictable across all women, however, and gamma regression results demonstrate that women for whom reproduction is a more distant goal change their fertility preferences in less-predictable ways.

Developmental sensitivity to cannabis use patterns and risk for major depressive disorder in mid-life: findings from 40 years of follow-up.

PubMed

Schoeler, Tabea; Theobald, Delphine; Pingault, Jean-Baptiste; Farrington, David P; Coid, Jeremy W; Bhattacharyya, Sagnik

2018-04-02

Evidence regarding the association between cannabis use and depression remain conflicting, especially as studies have not typically adopted a longitudinal design with a follow-up period that was long enough to adequately cover the risk period for onset of depression. Males from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) (N = 285) were assessed seven times from age 8 to 48 years to prospectively investigate the association between cannabis use and risk of major depressive disorder (MDD). A combination of multiple analyses (logistic regression, Cox regression, fixed-effects analysis) was employed to explore the strength and direction of effect within different developmental stages. Multiple regression analyses revealed that early-onset cannabis use (before age 18) but not late-onset cannabis use (after age 27) was associated with a higher risk and shorter time until a subsequent MDD diagnosis. This effect was present in high-frequency [(odds ratio (OR) 8.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-70.79]; [hazard ratio (HR) 8.69, 95% CI 2.07-36.52)] and low-frequency early-onset users (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.22-4.76; HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.16-3.74). Effect of increased frequency of cannabis use on increased risk of subsequent MDD was observed only for use during adolescence (age 14-18) but not at later life stages, while controlling for observed and non-unobserved time-invariant factors. Conversely, MDD in adulthood (age 18-32) was linked to a reduction in subsequent cannabis use (age 32-48). The present findings provide evidence implicating frequent cannabis use during adolescence as a risk factor for later life depression. Future studies should further examine causality of effects in larger samples.

Bayesian LASSO, scale space and decision making in association genetics.

PubMed

Pasanen, Leena; Holmström, Lasse; Sillanpää, Mikko J

2015-01-01

LASSO is a penalized regression method that facilitates model fitting in situations where there are as many, or even more explanatory variables than observations, and only a few variables are relevant in explaining the data. We focus on the Bayesian version of LASSO and consider four problems that need special attention: (i) controlling false positives, (ii) multiple comparisons, (iii) collinearity among explanatory variables, and (iv) the choice of the tuning parameter that controls the amount of shrinkage and the sparsity of the estimates. The particular application considered is association genetics, where LASSO regression can be used to find links between chromosome locations and phenotypic traits in a biological organism. However, the proposed techniques are relevant also in other contexts where LASSO is used for variable selection. We separate the true associations from false positives using the posterior distribution of the effects (regression coefficients) provided by Bayesian LASSO. We propose to solve the multiple comparisons problem by using simultaneous inference based on the joint posterior distribution of the effects. Bayesian LASSO also tends to distribute an effect among collinear variables, making detection of an association difficult. We propose to solve this problem by considering not only individual effects but also their functionals (i.e. sums and differences). Finally, whereas in Bayesian LASSO the tuning parameter is often regarded as a random variable, we adopt a scale space view and consider a whole range of fixed tuning parameters, instead. The effect estimates and the associated inference are considered for all tuning parameters in the selected range and the results are visualized with color maps that provide useful insights into data and the association problem considered. The methods are illustrated using two sets of artificial data and one real data set, all representing typical settings in association genetics.

Sedation-analgesia with propofol and remifentanil: concentrations required to avoid gag reflex in upper gastrointestinal endoscopy.

PubMed

Borrat, Xavier; Valencia, José Fernando; Magrans, Rudys; Gimenez-Mila, Marc; Mellado, Ricard; Sendino, Oriol; Perez, Maria; Nunez, Matilde; Jospin, Mathieu; Jensen, Erik Weber; Troconiz, Inaki; Gambus, Pedro L

2015-07-01

The purpose of this study was to identify optimal target propofol and remifentanil concentrations to avoid a gag reflex in response to insertion of an upper gastrointestinal endoscope. Patients presenting for endoscopy received target-controlled infusions (TCI) of both propofol and remifentanil for sedation-analgesia. Patients were randomized to 4 groups of fixed target effect-site concentrations: remifentanil 1 ng•mL (REMI 1) or 2 ng•mL (REMI 2) and propofol 2 μg•mL (PROP 2) or 3 μg•mL (PROP 3). For each group, the other drug (propofol for the REMI groups and vice versa) was increased or decreased using the "up-down" method based on the presence or absence of a gag response in the previous patient. A modified isotonic regression method was used to estimate the median effective Ce,50 from the up-down method in each group. A concentration-effect (sigmoid Emax) model was built to estimate the corresponding Ce,90 for each group. These data were used to estimate propofol bolus doses and remifentanil infusion rates that would achieve effect-site concentrations between Ce,50 and Ce,90 when a TCI system is not available for use. One hundred twenty-four patients were analyzed. To achieve between a 50% and 90% probability of no gag response, propofol TCIs were between 2.40 and 4.23 μg•mL (that could be achieved with a bolus of 1 mg•kg) when remifentanil TCI was fixed at 1 ng•mL, and target propofol TCIs were between 2.15 and 2.88 μg•mL (that could be achieved with a bolus of 0.75 mg•kg) when remifentanil TCI was fixed at 2 ng•mL. Remifentanil ranges were 1.00 to 4.79 ng•mL and 0.72 to 3.19 ng•mL when propofol was fixed at 2 and 3 μg•mL, respectively. We identified a set of propofol and remifentanil TCIs that blocked the gag response to endoscope insertion in patients undergoing endoscopy. Propofol bolus doses and remifentanil infusion rates designed to achieve similar effect-site concentrations can be used to prevent gag response when TCI is not available.

Meta-analysis of the effect of road safety campaigns on accidents.

PubMed

Phillips, Ross Owen; Ulleberg, Pål; Vaa, Truls

2011-05-01

A meta-analysis of 67 studies evaluating the effect of road safety campaigns on accidents is reported. A total of 119 results were extracted from the studies, which were reported in 12 different countries between 1975 and 2007. After allowing for publication bias and heterogeneity of effects, the weighted average effect of road safety campaigns is a 9% reduction in accidents (with 95% confidence that the weighted average is between -12 and -6%). To account for the variability of effects measured across studies, data were collected to characterise aspects of the campaign and evaluation design associated with each effect, and analysed to identify a model of seven campaign factors for testing by meta-regression. The model was tested using both fixed and random effect meta-regression, and dependency among effects was accounted for by aggregation. These analyses suggest positive associations between accident reduction and the use of personal communication or roadside media as part of a campaign delivery strategy. Campaigns with a drink-driving theme were also associated with greater accident reductions, while some of the analyses suggested that accompanying enforcement and short campaign duration (less than one month) are beneficial. Overall the results are consistent with the idea that campaigns can be more effective in the short term if the message is delivered with personal communication in a way that is proximal in space and time to the behaviour targeted by the campaign. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Worklife expectancies of fixed-term Finnish employees in 1997-2006.

PubMed

Nurminen, Markku

2008-04-01

Fixed-term employment is prevalent in the Finnish labor force. This form of employment contract is marked by fragmentary work periods, demands for flexibility in workhours, and concern for multiple insecurities. A nonpermanent employee may also incur adverse health consequences. Yet there exist no exact statistics on the duration of fixed-term employment. This paper estimated the future duration of the time that a Finn is expected to be engaged in irregular work. Multistate regression modeling and stochastic analysis were applied to aggregated data from surveys conducted among the labor force by Statistics Finland in 1997-2006. In 2006, a Finnish male was expected to work a total of 3.8 years in fixed-term employment, combined over consecutive or separate time spans; this time amounts to 8% of his remaining work career from entry into the work force until final retirement. For a woman the expectancy was greater, 6.5 years or 13%. For the age interval 20-29 years, the total was 16% for men and 23% for women. The type and duration of employment is influenced by security factors and economic cycles, both of which affect men and women differently. Over the past decade, fixed-term employment increased consistently in the female labor contingent, and it was more pronounced during economic slowdowns. This labor market development calls for standards for flexibility and guarantees for security in the fragmented future worklives of fixed-term employees.

Logistic random effects regression models: a comparison of statistical packages for binary and ordinal outcomes.

PubMed

Li, Baoyue; Lingsma, Hester F; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2011-05-23

Logistic random effects models are a popular tool to analyze multilevel also called hierarchical data with a binary or ordinal outcome. Here, we aim to compare different statistical software implementations of these models. We used individual patient data from 8509 patients in 231 centers with moderate and severe Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) enrolled in eight Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and three observational studies. We fitted logistic random effects regression models with the 5-point Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) as outcome, both dichotomized as well as ordinal, with center and/or trial as random effects, and as covariates age, motor score, pupil reactivity or trial. We then compared the implementations of frequentist and Bayesian methods to estimate the fixed and random effects. Frequentist approaches included R (lme4), Stata (GLLAMM), SAS (GLIMMIX and NLMIXED), MLwiN ([R]IGLS) and MIXOR, Bayesian approaches included WinBUGS, MLwiN (MCMC), R package MCMCglmm and SAS experimental procedure MCMC.Three data sets (the full data set and two sub-datasets) were analysed using basically two logistic random effects models with either one random effect for the center or two random effects for center and trial. For the ordinal outcome in the full data set also a proportional odds model with a random center effect was fitted. The packages gave similar parameter estimates for both the fixed and random effects and for the binary (and ordinal) models for the main study and when based on a relatively large number of level-1 (patient level) data compared to the number of level-2 (hospital level) data. However, when based on relatively sparse data set, i.e. when the numbers of level-1 and level-2 data units were about the same, the frequentist and Bayesian approaches showed somewhat different results. The software implementations differ considerably in flexibility, computation time, and usability. There are also differences in the availability of additional tools for model evaluation, such as diagnostic plots. The experimental SAS (version 9.2) procedure MCMC appeared to be inefficient. On relatively large data sets, the different software implementations of logistic random effects regression models produced similar results. Thus, for a large data set there seems to be no explicit preference (of course if there is no preference from a philosophical point of view) for either a frequentist or Bayesian approach (if based on vague priors). The choice for a particular implementation may largely depend on the desired flexibility, and the usability of the package. For small data sets the random effects variances are difficult to estimate. In the frequentist approaches the MLE of this variance was often estimated zero with a standard error that is either zero or could not be determined, while for Bayesian methods the estimates could depend on the chosen "non-informative" prior of the variance parameter. The starting value for the variance parameter may be also critical for the convergence of the Markov chain.

Simulation of multi-stage nonlinear bone remodeling induced by fixed partial dentures of different configurations: a comparative clinical and numerical study.

PubMed

Liao, Zhipeng; Yoda, Nobuhiro; Chen, Junning; Zheng, Keke; Sasaki, Keiichi; Swain, Michael V; Li, Qing

2017-04-01

This paper aimed to develop a clinically validated bone remodeling algorithm by integrating bone's dynamic properties in a multi-stage fashion based on a four-year clinical follow-up of implant treatment. The configurational effects of fixed partial dentures (FPDs) were explored using a multi-stage remodeling rule. Three-dimensional real-time occlusal loads during maximum voluntary clenching were measured with a piezoelectric force transducer and were incorporated into a computerized tomography-based finite element mandibular model. Virtual X-ray images were generated based on simulation and statistically correlated with clinical data using linear regressions. The strain energy density-driven remodeling parameters were regulated over the time frame considered. A linear single-stage bone remodeling algorithm, with a single set of constant remodeling parameters, was found to poorly fit with clinical data through linear regression (low [Formula: see text] and R), whereas a time-dependent multi-stage algorithm better simulated the remodeling process (high [Formula: see text] and R) against the clinical results. The three-implant-supported and distally cantilevered FPDs presented noticeable and continuous bone apposition, mainly adjacent to the cervical and apical regions. The bridged and mesially cantilevered FPDs showed bone resorption or no visible bone formation in some areas. Time-dependent variation of bone remodeling parameters is recommended to better correlate remodeling simulation with clinical follow-up. The position of FPD pontics plays a critical role in mechanobiological functionality and bone remodeling. Caution should be exercised when selecting the cantilever FPD due to the risk of overloading bone resorption.

Random effects coefficient of determination for mixed and meta-analysis models.

PubMed

Demidenko, Eugene; Sargent, James; Onega, Tracy

2012-01-01

The key feature of a mixed model is the presence of random effects. We have developed a coefficient, called the random effects coefficient of determination, [Formula: see text], that estimates the proportion of the conditional variance of the dependent variable explained by random effects. This coefficient takes values from 0 to 1 and indicates how strong the random effects are. The difference from the earlier suggested fixed effects coefficient of determination is emphasized. If [Formula: see text] is close to 0, there is weak support for random effects in the model because the reduction of the variance of the dependent variable due to random effects is small; consequently, random effects may be ignored and the model simplifies to standard linear regression. The value of [Formula: see text] apart from 0 indicates the evidence of the variance reduction in support of the mixed model. If random effects coefficient of determination is close to 1 the variance of random effects is very large and random effects turn into free fixed effects-the model can be estimated using the dummy variable approach. We derive explicit formulas for [Formula: see text] in three special cases: the random intercept model, the growth curve model, and meta-analysis model. Theoretical results are illustrated with three mixed model examples: (1) travel time to the nearest cancer center for women with breast cancer in the U.S., (2) cumulative time watching alcohol related scenes in movies among young U.S. teens, as a risk factor for early drinking onset, and (3) the classic example of the meta-analysis model for combination of 13 studies on tuberculosis vaccine.

Sensitivity of breeding values for carcass traits of meat-type quail to changes in dietary (methionine + cystine):lysine ratio using reaction norm models.

PubMed

Miranda, J A; Pires, A V; Abreu, L R A; Mota, L F M; Silva, M A; Bonafé, C M; Lima, H J D; Martins, P G M A

2016-12-01

Our objective was to evaluate changes in breeding values for carcass traits of two meat-type quail (Coturnix coturnix) strains (LF1 and LF2) to changes in the dietary (methionine + cystine):lysine ([Met + Cys]:Lys) ratio due to genotype by environment (G × E) interaction via reaction norm. A total of 7000 records of carcass weight and yield were used for analyses. During the initial phase (from hatching to day 21), five diets with increasing (Met + Cys):Lys ratios (0.61, 0.66, 0.71, 0.76 and 0.81), containing 26.1% crude protein and 2900 kcal ME/kg, were evaluated. Analyses were performed using random regression models that included linear functions of sex (fixed effect) and breeding value (random effect) for carcass weight and yield, without and with heterogeneous residual variance adjustment. Both fixed and random effects were modelled using Legendre polynomials of second order. Genetic variance and heritability estimates were affected by both (Met + Cys):Lys ratio and strain. We observed that a G × E interaction was present, with changes in the breeding value ranking. Therefore, genetic evaluation for carcass traits should be performed under the same (Met + Cys):Lys ratio in which quails are raised. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Beneficial Combination of Lacosamide with Retigabine in Experimental Animals: An Isobolographic Analysis.

PubMed

Luszczki, Jarogniew J; Zagaja, Mirosław; Miziak, Barbara; Kondrat-Wrobel, Maria W; Zaluska, Katarzyna; Wroblewska-Luczka, Paula; Adamczuk, Piotr; Czuczwar, Stanislaw J; Florek-Luszczki, Magdalena

2018-01-01

To isobolographically determine the types of interactions that occur between retigabine and lacosamide (LCM; two third-generation antiepileptic drugs) with respect to their anticonvulsant activity and acute adverse effects (sedation) in the maximal electroshock-induced seizures (MES) and chimney test (motor performance) in adult male Swiss mice. Type I isobolographic analysis for nonparallel dose-response effects for the combination of retigabine with LCM (at the fixed-ratio of 1:1) in both the MES and chimney test in mice was performed. Brain concentrations of retigabine and LCM were measured by high-pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) to characterize any pharmacokinetic interactions occurring when combining these drugs. Linear regression analysis revealed that retigabine had its dose-response effect line nonparallel to that of LCM in both the MES and chimney tests. The type I isobolographic analysis illustrated that retigabine combined with LCM (fixed-ratio of 1:1) exerted an additive interaction in the mouse MES model and sub-additivity (antagonism) in the chimney test. With HPLC, retigabine and LCM did not mutually change their total brain concentrations, thereby confirming the pharmacodynamic nature of the interaction. LCM combined with retigabine possesses a beneficial preclinical profile (benefit index ranged from 2.07 to 2.50) and this 2-drug combination is worth recommending as treatment plan to patients with pharmacoresistant epilepsy. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

An integrated specification for the nexus of water pollution and economic growth in China: Panel cointegration, long-run causality and environmental Kuznets curve.

PubMed

Zhang, Chen; Wang, Yuan; Song, Xiaowei; Kubota, Jumpei; He, Yanmin; Tojo, Junji; Zhu, Xiaodong

2017-12-31

This paper concentrates on a Chinese context and makes efforts to develop an integrated process to explicitly elucidate the relationship between economic growth and water pollution discharge-chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge and ammonia nitrogen (NH 3 -N), using two unbalanced panel data sets covering the period separately from 1990 to 2014, and 2001 to 2014. In our present study, the panel unit root tests, cointegration tests, and Granger causality tests allowing for cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary, and heterogeneity are conducted to examine the causal effects of economic growth on COD/NH 3 -N discharge. Further, we simultaneously apply semi-parametric fixed effects estimation and parametric fixed effects estimation to investigate environmental Kuznets curve relationship for COD/NH 3 -N discharge. Our empirical results show a long-term bidirectional causality between economic growth and COD/NH 3 -N discharge in China. Within the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology framework, we find evidence in support of an inverted U-shaped curved link between economic growth and COD/NH 3 -N discharge. To the best of our knowledge, there have not been any efforts made in investigating the nexus of economic growth and water pollution in such an integrated manner. Therefore, this study takes a fresh look on this topic. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soft tissue changes following extraction vs. nonextraction orthodontic fixed appliance treatment: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Konstantonis, Dimitrios; Vasileiou, Dimitrios; Papageorgiou, Spyridon N; Eliades, Theodore

2018-06-01

The aim of this systematic review was to assess the effect of systematic extraction protocols during orthodontic fixed appliance treatment on the soft tissue profile of human patients. Nine databases were searched until December 2016 for controlled clinical studies including premolar extraction or nonextraction treatment. After elimination of duplicate studies, data extraction, and risk-of-bias assessment according to the Cochrane guidelines, random-effects meta-analyses of mean differences (MD) or standardized mean differences (SMD) and their 95% CIs were performed, followed by subgroup, meta-regression, and sensitivity analyses. Extraction treatment was associated with increased lower lip retraction (24 studies; 1,456 patients; MD = 1.96 mm), upper lip retraction (21 studies; 1,149 patients; MD = 1.26 mm), nasolabial angle (21 studies; 1,089 patients; MD = 4.21°), soft-tissue profile convexity (six studies; 408 patients; MD = 1.24°), and profile pleasantness (three studies; 249 patients; SMD = 0.41). Patient age, extraction protocol, and amount of upper incisor retraction during treatment were significantly associated with the observed extraction effects, while the quality of evidence was very low in all cases due to risk of bias, baseline confounding, inconsistency, and imprecision. Although tooth extractions seem to affect patient profile, existing studies are heterogenous and no consistent predictions of profile response can be made. © 2018 Eur J Oral Sci.

Evaluation of Cox's model and logistic regression for matched case-control data with time-dependent covariates: a simulation study.

PubMed

Leffondré, Karen; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Siemiatycki, Jack

2003-12-30

Case-control studies are typically analysed using the conventional logistic model, which does not directly account for changes in the covariate values over time. Yet, many exposures may vary over time. The most natural alternative to handle such exposures would be to use the Cox model with time-dependent covariates. However, its application to case-control data opens the question of how to manipulate the risk sets. Through a simulation study, we investigate how the accuracy of the estimates of Cox's model depends on the operational definition of risk sets and/or on some aspects of the time-varying exposure. We also assess the estimates obtained from conventional logistic regression. The lifetime experience of a hypothetical population is first generated, and a matched case-control study is then simulated from this population. We control the frequency, the age at initiation, and the total duration of exposure, as well as the strengths of their effects. All models considered include a fixed-in-time covariate and one or two time-dependent covariate(s): the indicator of current exposure and/or the exposure duration. Simulation results show that none of the models always performs well. The discrepancies between the odds ratios yielded by logistic regression and the 'true' hazard ratio depend on both the type of the covariate and the strength of its effect. In addition, it seems that logistic regression has difficulty separating the effects of inter-correlated time-dependent covariates. By contrast, each of the two versions of Cox's model systematically induces either a serious under-estimation or a moderate over-estimation bias. The magnitude of the latter bias is proportional to the true effect, suggesting that an improved manipulation of the risk sets may eliminate, or at least reduce, the bias. Copyright 2003 JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.

Genetic analyses of partial egg production in Japanese quail using multi-trait random regression models.

PubMed

Karami, K; Zerehdaran, S; Barzanooni, B; Lotfi, E

2017-12-01

1. The aim of the present study was to estimate genetic parameters for average egg weight (EW) and egg number (EN) at different ages in Japanese quail using multi-trait random regression (MTRR) models. 2. A total of 8534 records from 900 quail, hatched between 2014 and 2015, were used in the study. Average weekly egg weights and egg numbers were measured from second until sixth week of egg production. 3. Nine random regression models were compared to identify the best order of the Legendre polynomials (LP). The most optimal model was identified by the Bayesian Information Criterion. A model with second order of LP for fixed effects, second order of LP for additive genetic effects and third order of LP for permanent environmental effects (MTRR23) was found to be the best. 4. According to the MTRR23 model, direct heritability for EW increased from 0.26 in the second week to 0.53 in the sixth week of egg production, whereas the ratio of permanent environment to phenotypic variance decreased from 0.48 to 0.1. Direct heritability for EN was low, whereas the ratio of permanent environment to phenotypic variance decreased from 0.57 to 0.15 during the production period. 5. For each trait, estimated genetic correlations among weeks of egg production were high (from 0.85 to 0.98). Genetic correlations between EW and EN were low and negative for the first two weeks, but they were low and positive for the rest of the egg production period. 6. In conclusion, random regression models can be used effectively for analysing egg production traits in Japanese quail. Response to selection for increased egg weight would be higher at older ages because of its higher heritability and such a breeding program would have no negative genetic impact on egg production.

Multiple-trait random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for milk, fat, and protein yield in buffaloes.

PubMed

Borquis, Rusbel Raul Aspilcueta; Neto, Francisco Ribeiro de Araujo; Baldi, Fernando; Hurtado-Lugo, Naudin; de Camargo, Gregório M F; Muñoz-Berrocal, Milthon; Tonhati, Humberto

2013-09-01

In this study, genetic parameters for test-day milk, fat, and protein yield were estimated for the first lactation. The data analyzed consisted of 1,433 first lactations of Murrah buffaloes, daughters of 113 sires from 12 herds in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, with calvings from 1985 to 2007. Ten-month classes of lactation days were considered for the test-day yields. The (co)variance components for the 3 traits were estimated using the regression analyses by Bayesian inference applying an animal model by Gibbs sampling. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-year-month of the test day. In the model, the random effects were additive genetic, permanent environment, and residual. The fixed effects were contemporary group and number of milkings (1 or 2), the linear and quadratic effects of the covariable age of the buffalo at calving, as well as the mean lactation curve of the population, which was modeled by orthogonal Legendre polynomials of fourth order. The random effects for the traits studied were modeled by Legendre polynomials of third and fourth order for additive genetic and permanent environment, respectively, the residual variances were modeled considering 4 residual classes. The heritability estimates for the traits were moderate (from 0.21-0.38), with higher estimates in the intermediate lactation phase. The genetic correlation estimates within and among the traits varied from 0.05 to 0.99. The results indicate that the selection for any trait test day will result in an indirect genetic gain for milk, fat, and protein yield in all periods of the lactation curve. The accuracy associated with estimated breeding values obtained using multi-trait random regression was slightly higher (around 8%) compared with single-trait random regression. This difference may be because to the greater amount of information available per animal. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Longitudinal Association Between Early Childhood Obesity and Fathers' Involvement in Caregiving and Decision-Making.

PubMed

Wong, Michelle S; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Thorpe, Roland J; Bleich, Sara N; Chan, Kitty S

2017-10-01

Fathers have increased their involvement in child caregiving; however, their changing role in childhood obesity is understudied. This study assessed the longitudinal association between changes in obesity among children aged 2 to 4 years and changes in fathers' involvement with raising children. Longitudinal data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth Cohort were used to conduct child fixed-effects linear and logistic regression analyses to assess the association between changes in childhood obesity-related outcomes (sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, screen time, BMI z score, overweight/obesity, obesity) and fathers' involvement with raising children (caregiving and influencing child-related decisions). Fixed-effects models control for all time-invariant characteristics. Analyses were controlled for time-varying confounders, including child age, maternal and paternal employment, and family poverty status. Children whose fathers increased their frequency of taking children outside and involvement with physical childcare experienced a decrease in their odds of obesity from age 2 to age 4. Obesity-related outcomes were not associated with fathers' decision-making influence. Increases in fathers' involvement with some aspects of caregiving may be associated with lower odds of childhood obesity. Encouraging fathers to increase their involvement with raising children and including fathers in childhood obesity prevention efforts may help reduce obesity risk among young children. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Workplace social capital and all-cause mortality: a prospective cohort study of 28,043 public-sector employees in Finland.

PubMed

Oksanen, Tuula; Kivimäki, Mika; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S V; Takao, Soshi; Suzuki, Etsuji; Kouvonen, Anne; Pentti, Jaana; Salo, Paula; Virtanen, Marianna; Vahtera, Jussi

2011-09-01

We examined the association between workplace social capital and all-cause mortality in a large occupational cohort from Finland. We linked responses of 28 043 participants to surveys in 2000 to 2002 and in 2004 to national mortality registers through 2009. We used repeated measurements of self- and coworker-assessed social capital. We carried out Cox proportional hazard and fixed-effects logistic regressions. During the 5-year follow-up, 196 employees died. A 1-unit increase in the mean of repeat measurements of self-assessed workplace social capital (range 1-5) was associated with a 19% decrease in the risk of all-cause mortality (age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66, 0.99). The corresponding point estimate for the mean of coworker-assessed social capital was similar, although the association was less precisely estimated (age- and gender-adjusted HR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.50, 1.20). In fixed-effects analysis, a 1-unit increase in self-assessed social capital across the 2 time points was associated with a lower mortality risk (odds ratio = 0.81; 95% CI = 0.55, 1.19). Workplace social capital appears to be associated with lowered mortality in the working-aged population.

Workplace Social Capital and All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study of 28 043 Public-Sector Employees in Finland

PubMed Central

Kivimäki, Mika; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S. V.; Takao, Soshi; Suzuki, Etsuji; Kouvonen, Anne; Pentti, Jaana; Salo, Paula; Virtanen, Marianna; Vahtera, Jussi

2011-01-01

Objectives. We examined the association between workplace social capital and all-cause mortality in a large occupational cohort from Finland. Methods. We linked responses of 28 043 participants to surveys in 2000 to 2002 and in 2004 to national mortality registers through 2009. We used repeated measurements of self- and coworker-assessed social capital. We carried out Cox proportional hazard and fixed-effects logistic regressions. Results. During the 5-year follow-up, 196 employees died. A 1-unit increase in the mean of repeat measurements of self-assessed workplace social capital (range 1–5) was associated with a 19% decrease in the risk of all-cause mortality (age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66, 0.99). The corresponding point estimate for the mean of coworker-assessed social capital was similar, although the association was less precisely estimated (age- and gender-adjusted HR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.50, 1.20). In fixed-effects analysis, a 1-unit increase in self-assessed social capital across the 2 time points was associated with a lower mortality risk (odds ratio = 0.81; 95% CI = 0.55, 1.19). Conclusions. Workplace social capital appears to be associated with lowered mortality in the working-aged population. PMID:21778502

Hospital participation in Meaningful Use and racial disparities in readmissions.

PubMed

Unruh, Mark Aaron; Jung, Hye Young; Kaushal, Rainu; Vest, Joshua R

2018-01-01

To measure the impact of hospital participation in Meaningful Use (MU) on disparities in 30-day readmissions associated with race. A retrospective cohort study that compared the likelihood of 30-day readmission for Medicare beneficiaries discharged from hospitals participating in Stage 1 of MU with the likelihood of readmission for beneficiaries concurrently discharged from hospitals that were not participating in the initiative. Inpatient claims for 2,414,205 Medicare beneficiaries from Florida, New York, and Washington State were used as the primary data source. The study period (2009-2013) included at least 2 years of baseline data prior to each hospital initiating participation in MU. Estimates were derived with linear regression models that included hospital and time fixed effects. By including both hospital and time fixed effects, estimates were based on discharges from the same hospital in the same time period. MU participation among hospitals was not associated with a statistically significant change in readmissions for the broader Medicare population (percentage points [PP], 0.6; 95% CI, -0.2 to 1.4), but hospitals' participation in the initiative was associated with a lower likelihood of readmission for African American beneficiaries (PP, -0.9; 95% CI, -1.5 to -0.4). Hospital participation in MU reduced disparities in 30-day readmissions for African American Medicare beneficiaries.

Father absence due to migration and child illness in rural Mexico.

PubMed

Schmeer, Kammi

2009-10-01

Little research to date has assessed the importance of the presence of fathers in the household for protecting child health, particularly in developing country contexts. Although divorce and non-marital childbearing are low in many developing countries, migration is a potentially important source of father absence that has yet to be studied in relation to child health. This study utilizes prospective, longitudinal data from Mexico to assess whether father absence due to migration is associated with increased child illness in poor, rural communities. Rural Mexico provides a setting where child illness is related to more serious health problems, and where migration is an important source of father absence. Both state- and individual-level fixed effects regression analyses are used to estimate the relationship between father absence due to migration and child illness while controlling for unobserved contextual and individual characteristics. The state-level models illustrate that the odds of children being ill are 39% higher for any illness and 51% higher for diarrhea when fathers are absent compared with when fathers are present in the household. The individual-level fixed effects models support these findings, indicating that, in the context of rural Mexico, fathers may be important sources of support for ensuring the healthy development of young children.

Nursing home quality and financial performance: does the racial composition of residents matter?

PubMed

Chisholm, Latarsha; Weech-Maldonado, Robert; Laberge, Alex; Lin, Feng-Chang; Hyer, Kathryn

2013-12-01

To examine the effects of the racial composition of residents on nursing homes' financial and quality performance. The study examined Medicare and Medicaid-certified nursing homes across the United States that submitted Medicare cost reports between the years 1999 and 2004 (11,472 average per year). Data were obtained from the Minimum Data Set, the On-Line Survey Certification and Reporting, Medicare Cost Reports, and the Area Resource File. Panel data regression with random intercepts and negative binomial regression were conducted with state and year fixed effects. Financial and quality performance differed between nursing homes with high proportions of black residents and nursing homes with no or medium proportions of black residents. Nursing homes with no black residents had higher revenues and higher operating margins and total profit margins and they exhibited better processes and outcomes than nursing homes with high proportions of black residents. Nursing homes' financial viability and quality of care are influenced by the racial composition of residents. Policy makers should consider initiatives to improve both the financial and quality performance of nursing homes serving predominantly black residents. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Global Evidence on the Association between Cigarette Graphic Warning Labels and Cigarette Smoking Prevalence and Consumption

PubMed Central

Ngo, Anh; Cheng, Kai-Wen; Huang, Jidong; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2018-01-01

Background: In 2011, the courts ruled in favor of tobacco companies in preventing the implementation of graphic warning labels (GWLs) in the US, stating that FDA had not established the effectiveness of GWLs in reducing smoking. Methods: Data came from various sources: the WHO MPOWER package (GWLs, MPOWER policy measures, cigarette prices), Euromonitor International (smoking prevalence, cigarette consumption), and the World Bank database (countries’ demographic characteristics). The datasets were aggregated and linked using country and year identifiers. Fractional logit regressions and OLS regressions were applied to examine the associations between GWLs and smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption, controlling for MPOWER policy scores, cigarette prices, GDP per capita, unemployment, population aged 15–64 (%), aged 65 and over (%), year indicators, and country fixed effects. Results: GWLs were associated with a 0.9–3 percentage point decrease in adult smoking prevalence and were significantly associated with a reduction of 230–287 sticks in per capita cigarette consumption, compared to countries without GWLs. However, the association between GWLs and cigarette consumption became statistically insignificant once country indicators were included in the models. Conclusions: The implementation of GWLs may be associated with reduced cigarette smoking. PMID:29495581

Global Evidence on the Association between Cigarette Graphic Warning Labels and Cigarette Smoking Prevalence and Consumption.

PubMed

Ngo, Anh; Cheng, Kai-Wen; Shang, Ce; Huang, Jidong; Chaloupka, Frank J

2018-02-28

Background : In 2011, the courts ruled in favor of tobacco companies in preventing the implementation of graphic warning labels (GWLs) in the US, stating that FDA had not established the effectiveness of GWLs in reducing smoking. Methods : Data came from various sources: the WHO MPOWER package (GWLs, MPOWER policy measures, cigarette prices), Euromonitor International (smoking prevalence, cigarette consumption), and the World Bank database (countries' demographic characteristics). The datasets were aggregated and linked using country and year identifiers. Fractional logit regressions and OLS regressions were applied to examine the associations between GWLs and smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption, controlling for MPOWER policy scores, cigarette prices, GDP per capita, unemployment, population aged 15-64 (%), aged 65 and over (%), year indicators, and country fixed effects. Results : GWLs were associated with a 0.9-3 percentage point decrease in adult smoking prevalence and were significantly associated with a reduction of 230-287 sticks in per capita cigarette consumption, compared to countries without GWLs. However, the association between GWLs and cigarette consumption became statistically insignificant once country indicators were included in the models. Conclusions : The implementation of GWLs may be associated with reduced cigarette smoking.

Long-term sickness absence during pregnancy and the gender balance of workplaces.

PubMed

Melsom, Anne M

2014-11-01

This study addresses how the gender composition of workplaces affects pregnant women's sickness absence. It also assesses whether an observed association may be explaine by differential selection to female- or male-dominated workplaces. The analyses are based on Norwegian registry data from 2003-2011. Using Poisson regressions with detailed control for occupational categories, I examine whether the number of absence days are associated with the proportion of females at the workplace. I address possible selection effects by Poisson regressions with fixed individual effects using only within-individual variation on women with two or more pregnancies during the time window. The analyses indicate a positive and significant relationship between the female proportion in workplaces and sickness absence rates during pregnancy. Analyses limited to within-individual variation also show positive and significant effects of similar strength, indicating that the observed relationship is not due to differential selection of absence-prone pregnant workers to female-dominated workplaces. The proportion of female individuals at workplaces is positively associated with sickness absence rates during pregnancy this association is not likely explained by occupational nor individual characteristics the results are consistent with absence culture theory and more lenient norms concerning sickness absence during pregnancy at female-dominated workplaces. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Comparison of regression coefficient and GIS-based methodologies for regional estimates of forest soil carbon stocks.

PubMed

Campbell, J Elliott; Moen, Jeremie C; Ney, Richard A; Schnoor, Jerald L

2008-03-01

Estimates of forest soil organic carbon (SOC) have applications in carbon science, soil quality studies, carbon sequestration technologies, and carbon trading. Forest SOC has been modeled using a regression coefficient methodology that applies mean SOC densities (mass/area) to broad forest regions. A higher resolution model is based on an approach that employs a geographic information system (GIS) with soil databases and satellite-derived landcover images. Despite this advancement, the regression approach remains the basis of current state and federal level greenhouse gas inventories. Both approaches are analyzed in detail for Wisconsin forest soils from 1983 to 2001, applying rigorous error-fixing algorithms to soil databases. Resulting SOC stock estimates are 20% larger when determined using the GIS method rather than the regression approach. Average annual rates of increase in SOC stocks are 3.6 and 1.0 million metric tons of carbon per year for the GIS and regression approaches respectively.

Evaluation of aerial survey methods for Dall's sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Shults, Brad S.; Adams, Layne G.; Kleckner, Christopher

2006-01-01

Most Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) population-monitoring efforts use intensive aerial surveys with no attempt to estimate variance or adjust for potential sightability bias. We used radiocollared sheep to assess factors that could affect sightability of Dall's sheep in standard fixed-wing and helicopter surveys and to evaluate feasibility of methods that might account for sightability bias. Work was conducted in conjunction with annual aerial surveys of Dall's sheep in the western Baird Mountains, Alaska, USA, in 2000–2003. Overall sightability was relatively high compared with other aerial wildlife surveys, with 88% of the available, marked sheep detected in our fixed-wing surveys. Total counts from helicopter surveys were not consistently larger than counts from fixed-wing surveys of the same units, and detection probabilities did not differ for the 2 aircraft types. Our results suggest that total counts from helicopter surveys cannot be used to obtain reliable estimates of detection probabilities for fixed-wing surveys. Groups containing radiocollared sheep often changed in size and composition before they could be observed by a second crew in units that were double-surveyed. Double-observer methods that require determination of which groups were detected by each observer will be infeasible unless survey procedures can be modified so that groups remain more stable between observations. Mean group sizes increased during our study period, and our logistic regression sightability model indicated that detection probabilities increased with group size. Mark–resight estimates of annual population sizes were similar to sightability-model estimates, and confidence intervals overlapped broadly. We recommend the sightability-model approach as the most effective and feasible of the alternatives we considered for monitoring Dall's sheep populations.

Understanding cost of care for patients on renal replacement therapy: looking beyond fixed tariffs.

PubMed

Li, Bernadette; Cairns, John A; Fotheringham, James; Tomson, Charles R; Forsythe, John L; Watson, Christopher; Metcalfe, Wendy; Fogarty, Damian G; Draper, Heather; Oniscu, Gabriel C; Dudley, Christopher; Johnson, Rachel J; Roderick, Paul; Leydon, Geraldine; Bradley, J Andrew; Ravanan, Rommel

2015-10-01

In a number of countries, reimbursement to hospitals providing renal dialysis services is set according to a fixed tariff. While the cost of maintenance dialysis and transplant surgery are amenable to a system of fixed tariffs, patients with established renal failure commonly present with comorbid conditions that can lead to variations in the need for hospitalization beyond the provision of renal replacement therapy. Patient-level cost data for incident renal replacement therapy patients in England were obtained as a result of linkage of the Hospital Episodes Statistics dataset to UK Renal Registry data. Regression models were developed to explore variations in hospital costs in relation to treatment modality, number of years on treatment and factors such as age and comorbidities. The final models were then used to predict annual costs for patients with different sets of characteristics. Excluding the cost of renal replacement therapy itself, inpatient costs generally decreased with number of years on treatment for haemodialysis and transplant patients, whereas costs for patients receiving peritoneal dialysis remained constant. Diabetes was associated with higher mean annual costs for all patients irrespective of treatment modality and hospital setting. Age did not have a consistent effect on costs. Combining predicted hospital costs with the fixed costs of renal replacement therapy showed that the total cost differential for a patient continuing on dialysis rather than receiving a transplant is considerable following the first year of renal replacement therapy, thus reinforcing the longer-term economic advantage of transplantation over dialysis for the health service. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Fluoride release and recharge behavior of a nano-filled resin-modified glass ionomer compared with that of other fluoride releasing materials.

PubMed

Mitra, Sumita B; Oxman, Joe D; Falsafi, Afshin; Ton, Tiffany T

2011-12-01

To compare the long-term fluoride release kinetics of a novel nano-filled two-paste resin-modified glass-ionomer (RMGI), Ketac Nano (KN) with that of two powder-liquid resin-modified glass-ionomers, Fuji II LC (FLC) and Vitremer (VT) and one conventional glass-ionomer, Fuji IX (FIX). Fluoride release was measured in vitro using ion-selective electrodes. Kinetic analysis was done using regression analysis and compared with existing models for GIs and compomers. In a separate experiment the samples of KN and two conventional glass-ionomers, FIX and Ketac Molar (KM) were subjected to a treatment with external fluoride source (Oral-B Neutra-Foam) after 3 months of fluoride release and the recharge behavior studied for an additional 7-day period. The cumulative amount of fluoride released from KN, VT and FLC and the release profiles were statistically similar but greater than that for FIX at P < 0.05. All four materials, including KN, showed a burst of fluoride ions at shorter times (t) and an overall rate dependence on t1/2 typical for glass-ionomers. The coating of KN with its primer and of DY with its adhesive did not significantly alter the fluoride release behavior of the respective materials. The overall rate for KN was significantly higher than for the compomer DY. DY showed a linear rate of release vs. t and no burst effect as expected for compomers. The nanoionomer KN showed fluoride recharge behavior similar to the conventional glass ionomers FIX and KM. Thus, it was concluded that the new RMGI KN exhibits fluoride ion release behavior similar to typical conventional and RMGIs and that the primer does not impede the release of fluoride.

Global Potential Net Prmary Production Predicted from Vegetation Class, Precipitation, and Temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Net Primary Production (NPP), the difference between CO2 fixed by photosynthesis and CO2 lost to autotrophic respiration, is one of the most important components of the carbon cycle. Our goal was to develop a simple regression model to estimate global NPP using climate and land cover data. Approxima...

The microcomputer scientific software series 5: the BIOMASS user's guide.

Treesearch

George E. Host; Stephen C. Westin; William G. Cole; Kurt S. Pregitzer

1989-01-01

BIOMASS is an interactive microcomputer program that uses allometric regression equations to calculate aboveground biomass of common tree species of the Lake States. The equations are species-specific and most use both diameter and height as independent variables. The program accommodates fixed area and variable radius sample designs and produces both individual tree...

The role of financial market performance in hospital capital investment.

PubMed

Reiter, Kristin L; Song, Paula H

2011-01-01

Many not-for-profit hospitals hold large portfolios of financial investments, making them vulnerable to fluctuations in market performance. This article examines the association of bond and equity market performance with investment in property, plant, and equipment by 194 not-for-profit general hospitals in California over the period 1997 to 2006. The study combines retrospective panel data from the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development with year-end returns on the S&P 500 and ten-year US Treasury bonds. Using fixed-effects regression, we find a significant positive association between S&P 500 performance and hospitals' capital investment; investment is not correlated with ten-year Treasury bond performance.

Determination of Landslide and Driftwood Potentials by Fixed-wing UAV-Borne RGB and NIR images: A Case Study of Shenmu Area in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Su-Chin; Hsiao, Yu-Shen; Chung, Ta-Hsien

2015-04-01

This study is aimed at determining the landslide and driftwood potentials at Shenmu area in Taiwan by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). High-resolution orthomosaics and digital surface models (DSMs) are both obtained from several UAV practical surveys by using a red-green-blue(RGB) camera and a near-infrared(NIR) one, respectively. Couples of artificial aerial survey targets are used for ground control in photogrammtry. The algorithm for this study is based on Logistic regression. 8 main factors, which are elevations, terrain slopes, terrain aspects, terrain reliefs, terrain roughness, distances to roads, distances to rivers, land utilizations, are taken into consideration in our Logistic regression model. The related results from UAV are compared with those from traditional photogrammetry. Overall, the study is focusing on monitoring the distribution of the areas with high-risk landslide and driftwood potentials in Shenmu area by Fixed-wing UAV-Borne RGB and NIR images. We also further analyze the relationship between forests, landslides, disaster potentials and upper river areas.

Microbial Transformation of Esters of Chlorinated Carboxylic Acids

PubMed Central

Paris, D. F.; Wolfe, N. L.; Steen, W. C.

1984-01-01

Two groups of compounds were selected for microbial transformation studies. In the first group were carboxylic acid esters having a fixed aromatic moiety and an increasing length of the alkyl component. Ethyl esters of chlorine-substituted carboxylic acids were in the second group. Microorganisms from environmental waters and a pure culture of Pseudomonas putida U were used. The bacterial populations were monitored by plate counts, and disappearance of the parent compound was followed by gas-liquid chromatography as a function of time. The products of microbial hydrolysis were the respective carboxylic acids. Octanol-water partition coefficients (Kow) for the compounds were measured. These values spanned three orders of magnitude, whereas microbial transformation rate constants (kb) varied only 50-fold. The microbial rate constants of the carboxylic acid esters with a fixed aromatic moiety increased with an increasing length of alkyl substituents. The regression coefficient for the linear relationships between log kb and log Kow was high for group 1 compounds, indicating that these parameters correlated well. The regression coefficient for the linear relationships for group 2 compounds, however, was low, indicating that these parameters correlated poorly. PMID:16346459

Feature Selection for Ridge Regression with Provable Guarantees.

PubMed

Paul, Saurabh; Drineas, Petros

2016-04-01

We introduce single-set spectral sparsification as a deterministic sampling-based feature selection technique for regularized least-squares classification, which is the classification analog to ridge regression. The method is unsupervised and gives worst-case guarantees of the generalization power of the classification function after feature selection with respect to the classification function obtained using all features. We also introduce leverage-score sampling as an unsupervised randomized feature selection method for ridge regression. We provide risk bounds for both single-set spectral sparsification and leverage-score sampling on ridge regression in the fixed design setting and show that the risk in the sampled space is comparable to the risk in the full-feature space. We perform experiments on synthetic and real-world data sets; a subset of TechTC-300 data sets, to support our theory. Experimental results indicate that the proposed methods perform better than the existing feature selection methods.

Essays on energy, equity, and the environment in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Israel, Debra Kim

1999-11-01

The essays in this dissertation explore different environmental and public policy issues relevant to developing countries. Essay I examines household-level survey responses to the question "How willing would you be to pay somewhat higher taxes to the government if you knew the money would be spent to protect the environment and prevent land, water and air pollution?" Specifically, for twelve developing and three developed countries included in the survey, the empirical relationships among willingness to pay for environmental quality, relative household income and national income are investigated. The results indicate that when the effects of household and national income are combined, households with below-average income in low-income countries are less willing to pay for environmental protection than those with above-average income in high-income countries. Furthermore, willingness to pay for environmental protection increases more significantly with relative household income than with national income. Essay II uses data from urban Bolivia to study the determinants of household fuel choice, an important link between deforestation and indoor air pollution in developing countries. In particular, the effects of fixed fuel costs, income growth, and female earned income on household fuel choice are examined. The results imply that reduction in firewood use in developing countries is not likely to occur simply as the result of income growth. The essay discusses possible policy implications based on the results that fixed fuel costs appear to be a deterrent to switching to a cleaner fuel and households with female earned income seem less likely to use firewood than other households. Essay III analyzes the equity implications of the elimination of fuel subsidies in the 1985 Bolivian economic reforms. An analysis of the direct static burden shows that while the elimination of gasoline subsidies was progressively distributed, the elimination of LPG and kerosene subsidies was regressive. Overall, the impact was close to proportional. However, including the indirect effect of urban transportation fare increases adds to the regressivity of the subsidy removal, while including the partial equilibrium effects implies a more progressive burden.

Use of random regression to estimate genetic parameters of temperament across an age continuum in a crossbred cattle population.

PubMed

Littlejohn, B P; Riley, D G; Welsh, T H; Randel, R D; Willard, S T; Vann, R C

2018-05-12

The objective was to estimate genetic parameters of temperament in beef cattle across an age continuum. The population consisted predominantly of Brahman-British crossbred cattle. Temperament was quantified by: 1) pen score (PS), the reaction of a calf to a single experienced evaluator on a scale of 1 to 5 (1 = calm, 5 = excitable); 2) exit velocity (EV), the rate (m/sec) at which a calf traveled 1.83 m upon exiting a squeeze chute; and 3) temperament score (TS), the numerical average of PS and EV. Covariates included days of age and proportion of Bos indicus in the calf and dam. Random regression models included the fixed effects determined from the repeated measures models, except for calf age. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine the most appropriate random structures. In repeated measures models, the proportion of Bos indicus in the calf was positively related with each calf temperament trait (0.41 ± 0.20, 0.85 ± 0.21, and 0.57 ± 0.18 for PS, EV, and TS, respectively; P < 0.01). There was an effect of contemporary group (combinations of season, year of birth, and management group) and dam age (P < 0.001) in all models. From repeated records analyses, estimates of heritability (h2) were 0.34 ± 0.04, 0.31 ± 0.04, and 0.39 ± 0.04, while estimates of permanent environmental variance as a proportion of the phenotypic variance (c2) were 0.30 ± 0.04, 0.31 ± 0.03, and 0.34 ± 0.04 for PS, EV, and TS, respectively. Quadratic additive genetic random regressions on Legendre polynomials of age were significant for all traits. Quadratic permanent environmental random regressions were significant for PS and TS, but linear permanent environmental random regressions were significant for EV. Random regression results suggested that these components change across the age dimension of these data. There appeared to be an increasing influence of permanent environmental effects and decreasing influence of additive genetic effects corresponding to increasing calf age for EV, and to a lesser extent for TS. Inherited temperament may be overcome by accumulating environmental stimuli with increases in age, especially after weaning.

Social capital, income inequality and the social gradient in self-rated health in Latin America: A fixed effects analysis.

PubMed

Vincens, Natalia; Emmelin, Maria; Stafström, Martin

2018-01-01

Latin America is the most unequal region in the world. The current sustainable development agenda increased attention to health inequity and its determinants in the region. Our aim is to investigate the social gradient in health in Latin America and assess the effects of social capital and income inequality on it. We used cross-sectional data from the World Values Survey and the World Bank. Our sample included 10,426 respondents in eight Latin American countries. Self-rated health was used as the outcome. Education level was the socioeconomic position indicator. We measured social capital by associational membership, civic participation, generalized trust, and neighborhood trust indicators at both individual and country levels. Income inequality was operationalized using the Gini index at country-level. We employed fixed effects logistic regressions and cross-level interactions to assess the impact of social capital and income inequality on the heath gradient, controlling for country heterogeneity. Education level was independently associated with self-rated health, representing a clear social gradient in health, favoring individuals in higher socioeconomic positions. Generalized and neighborhood trust at country-level moderated the effect on the association between socioeconomic position and health, yet favoring individuals in lower socioeconomic positions, especially in lower inequality countries, despite their lower individual social capital. Our findings suggest that collective rather than individual social capital can impact the social gradient in health in Latin America, explaining health inequalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The economic impact of Mexico City's smoke-free law.

PubMed

López, Carlos Manuel Guerrero; Ruiz, Jorge Alberto Jiménez; Shigematsu, Luz Myriam Reynales; Waters, Hugh R

2011-07-01

To evaluate the economic impact of Mexico City's 2008 smoke-free law--The Non-Smokers' Health Protection Law on restaurants, bars and nightclubs. We used the Monthly Services Survey of businesses from January 2005 to April 2009--with revenues, employment and payments to employees as the principal outcomes. The results are estimated using a differences-in-differences regression model with fixed effects. The states of Jalisco, Nuevo León and México, where the law was not in effect, serve as a counterfactual comparison group. In restaurants, after accounting for observable factors and the fixed effects, there was a 24.8% increase in restaurants' revenue associated with the smoke-free law. This difference is not statistically significant but shows that, on average, restaurants did not suffer economically as a result of the law. Total wages increased by 28.2% and employment increased by 16.2%. In nightclubs, bars and taverns there was a decrease of 1.5% in revenues and an increase of 0.1% and 3.0%, respectively, in wages and employment. None of these effects are statistically significant in multivariate analysis. There is no statistically significant evidence that the Mexico City smoke-free law had a negative impact on restaurants' income, employees' wages and levels of employment. On the contrary, the results show a positive, though statistically non-significant, impact of the law on most of these outcomes. Mexico City's experience suggests that smoke-free laws in Mexico and elsewhere will not hurt economic productivity in the restaurant and bar industries.

Risk factors for acute chemical releases with public health consequences: Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance in the U.S., 1996–2001

PubMed Central

Ruckart, Perri Z; Wattigney, Wendy A; Kaye, Wendy E

2004-01-01

Background Releases of hazardous materials can cause substantial morbidity and mortality. To reduce and prevent the public health consequences (victims or evacuations) from uncontrolled or illegally released hazardous substances, a more comprehensive analysis is needed to determine risk factors for hazardous materials incidents. Methods Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (HSEES) data from 1996 through 2001 were analyzed using bivariate and multiple logistic regression. Fixed-facility and transportation-related events were analyzed separately. Results For fixed-facility events, 2,327 (8%) resulted in at least one victim and 2,844 (10%) involved ordered evacuations. For transportation-related events, 759 (8%) resulted in at least one victim, and 405 (4%) caused evacuation orders. Fire and/or explosion were the strongest risk factors for events involving either victims or evacuations. Stratified analysis of fixed-facility events involving victims showed a strong association for acid releases in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries industry. Chlorine releases in fixed-facility events resulted in victims and evacuations in more industry categories than any other substance. Conclusions Outreach efforts should focus on preventing and preparing for fires and explosions, acid releases in the agricultural industry, and chlorine releases in fixed facilities. PMID:15496226

Time series regression-based pairs trading in the Korean equities market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Saejoon; Heo, Jun

2017-07-01

Pairs trading is an instance of statistical arbitrage that relies on heavy quantitative data analysis to profit by capitalising low-risk trading opportunities provided by anomalies of related assets. A key element in pairs trading is the rule by which open and close trading triggers are defined. This paper investigates the use of time series regression to define the rule which has previously been identified with fixed threshold-based approaches. Empirical results indicate that our approach may yield significantly increased excess returns compared to ones obtained by previous approaches on large capitalisation stocks in the Korean equities market.

The effect of reimbursement on medical decision making: do physicians alter treatment in response to a managed care incentive?

PubMed

Melichar, Lori

2009-07-01

The empirical literature that explores whether physicians respond to financial incentives has not definitively answered the question of whether physicians alter their treatment behavior at the margin. Previous research has not been able to distinguish that part of a physician response that uniformly alters treatment of all patients under a physician's care from that which affects some, but not all of a physician's patients. To explore physicians' marginal responses to financial incentives while accounting for the selection of physicians into different financial arrangements where others could not, I use data from a survey of physician visits to isolate the effect that capitation, a form of reimbursement wherein physicians receive zero marginal revenue for a range of physician provided services, has on the care provided by a physician. Fixed effects regression results reveal that physicians spend less time with their capitated patients than with their non-capitated patients.

Using fixed-parameter and random-parameter ordered regression models to identify significant factors that affect the severity of drivers' injuries in vehicle-train collisions.

PubMed

Dabbour, Essam; Easa, Said; Haider, Murtaza

2017-10-01

This study attempts to identify significant factors that affect the severity of drivers' injuries when colliding with trains at railroad-grade crossings by analyzing the individual-specific heterogeneity related to those factors over a period of 15 years. Both fixed-parameter and random-parameter ordered regression models were used to analyze records of all vehicle-train collisions that occurred in the United States from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2015. For fixed-parameter ordered models, both probit and negative log-log link functions were used. The latter function accounts for the fact that lower injury severity levels are more probable than higher ones. Separate models were developed for heavy and light-duty vehicles. Higher train and vehicle speeds, female, and young drivers (below the age of 21 years) were found to be consistently associated with higher severity of drivers' injuries for both heavy and light-duty vehicles. Furthermore, favorable weather, light-duty trucks (including pickup trucks, panel trucks, mini-vans, vans, and sports-utility vehicles), and senior drivers (above the age of 65 years) were found be consistently associated with higher severity of drivers' injuries for light-duty vehicles only. All other factors (e.g. air temperature, the type of warning devices, darkness conditions, and highway pavement type) were found to be temporally unstable, which may explain the conflicting findings of previous studies related to those factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Risk Factors and Clinical Course of Asthma with Fixed Airflow Limitation.

PubMed

Pothirat, Chaicharn; Chaiwong, Warawut; Liwsrisakun, Chalerm; Bumroongkit, Chaiwat; Deesomchok, Athavudh; Theerakittikul, Theerakorn; Limsukon, Atikun; Phetsuk, Nittaya

2016-07-01

To identify risk factors and clinical course of asthma with fixed airflow limitation. A retrospective case-control study of asthma patients was conducted over a 15-month period. Asthma with fixed airflow limitation patients were defined as chronic asthmatics who had both post-bronchodilator (BD) and on-treatment ratio of forced expiratory in first second (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) persistently less than 0.7, whereas usual chronic asthma patients had post-BD and/or on-treatment ratio of FEV1/FVC more than 0.7. Serial asthma control tests (ACT), medication used, exacerbations were assessed. The risk factors were analyzed using logistic regression. Clinical characteristics between groups were compared using Student’s t-test and Fisher’s exact test. One hundred twenty from 142 eligible subjects were enrolled. They had asthma with fixed airflow limitation (n = 40) and usual chronic asthma (n = 80). Potential risk factors of asthma with fixed airflow limitation included early disease onset (age <15 years) [(adjusted odd ratio (OR) = 3.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9-8.3)] with longer disease duration (adjusted OR = 8.4, 95% CI 4.6-15.4 for >30 years). Asthma with fixed airflow limitation patients had lower ACT scores (p<0.001), lower level of asthma control (p<0.001), required more asthma medications (p = 0.002), and higher rates of hospitalization (p = 0.001) than usual chronic asthma. The potential risk factors of asthma with fixed airflow limitation were earlier disease onset and longer disease duration. They had poorer asthma control, more medications needed, and higher rates of exacerbation than usual chronic asthma.

Quantitative detection of glucose level based on radiofrequency patch biosensor combined with volume-fixed structures.

PubMed

Qiang, Tian; Wang, Cong; Kim, Nam-Young

2017-12-15

A concept for characterizing a radiofrequency (RF) patch biosensor combined with volume-fixed structures is presented for timely monitoring of an individual's glucose levels based on frequency variation. Two types of patch biosensors-separately integrated with a backside slot (0.53μL) and a front-side tank (0.70μL) structure-were developed to achieve precise and efficient detection while excluding the effects of interference due to the liquidity, shape, and thickness of the tested glucose sample. A glucose test analyte at different concentrations (50-600mg/dL) was dropped into the volume-fixed structures. It fully interacted with the RF patch electromagnetic field, effectively and sensitively changing the resonance frequency and magnitude of the reflection coefficient. Measurement results based on the resonance frequency showed high sensitivity up to 1.13MHz and 1.97MHz per mg/dL, and low detection limits of 26.54mg/dL and 15.22mg/dL, for the two types of patch biosensors, respectively, as well as a short response time of less than 1s. Excellent reusability of the proposed biosensors was verified through three sets of measurements for each individual glucose sample. Regression analysis revealed a good linear correlation between glucose concentrations and the resonance frequency shift. Moreover, to facilitate a multi-parameter-sensitive detection of glucose, the magnitude of the reflection coefficient was also tested, and it showed a good linear correlation with the glucose concentration. Thus, the proposed approach can be adopted for distinguishing glucose solution levels, and it is a potential candidate for early-stage detection of glucose levels in diabetes patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The contribution of 3D quantitative meniscal and cartilage measures to variation in normal radiographic joint space width-Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative healthy reference cohort.

PubMed

Roth, Melanie; Wirth, Wolfgang; Emmanuel, Katja; Culvenor, Adam G; Eckstein, Felix

2017-02-01

To explore to what extent three-dimensional measures of the meniscus and femorotibial cartilage explain the variation in medial and lateral femorotibial radiographic joint space width (JSW), in healthy men and women. The right knees of 87 Osteoarthritis Initiative healthy reference participants (no symptoms, radiographic signs or risk factors of osteoarthritis; 37 men, 50 women; age 55.0±7.6; BMI 24.4±3.1) were assessed. Quantitative measures of subregional femorotibial cartilage thickness and meniscal position and morphology were computed from segmented magnetic resonance images. Minimal and medial/lateral fixed-location JSW were determined from fixed-flexion radiographs. Correlation and regression analyses were used to explore the contribution of demographic, cartilage and meniscal parameters to JSW in healthy subjects. The correlation with (medial) minimal JSW was somewhat stronger for cartilage thickness (0.54≤r≤0.67) than for meniscal (-0.31≤r≤0.50) or demographic measures (-0.15≤r≤0.48), in particular in men. In women, in contrast, the strength of the correlations of cartilage thickness and meniscal measures with minimal JSW were in the same range. Fixed-location JSW measures showed stronger correlations with cartilage thickness (r≥0.68 medially; r≥0.59 laterally) than with meniscal measures (r≤|0.32| medially; r≤|0.32| laterally). Stepwise regression models revealed that meniscal measures added significant independent information to the total variance explained in minimal JSW (adjusted multiple r 2 =58%) but not in medial or lateral fixed-location JSW (r 2 =60/51%, respectively). In healthy subjects, minimal JSW was observed to reflect a combination of cartilage and meniscal measures, particularly in women. Fixed-location JSW, in contrast, was found to be dominated by variance in cartilage thickness in both men and women, with somewhat higher correlations between cartilage and JSW in the medial than lateral femorotibial compartment. The significant contribution of the meniscus' position on minimal JSW reinforces concerns over validity of JSW as an indirect measure of hyaline cartilage. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of a single-stage fixed-rate step test for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake in healthy adults.

PubMed

Hansen, Dominique; Jacobs, Nele; Thijs, Herbert; Dendale, Paul; Claes, Neree

2016-09-01

Healthcare professionals with limited access to ergospirometry remain in need of valid and simple submaximal exercise tests to predict maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max ). Despite previous validation studies concerning fixed-rate step tests, accurate equations for the estimation of VO2max remain to be formulated from a large sample of healthy adults between age 18-75 years (n > 100). The aim of this study was to develop a valid equation to estimate VO2max from a fixed-rate step test in a larger sample of healthy adults. A maximal ergospirometry test, with assessment of cardiopulmonary parameters and VO2max , and a 5-min fixed-rate single-stage step test were executed in 112 healthy adults (age 18-75 years). During the step test and subsequent recovery, heart rate was monitored continuously. By linear regression analysis, an equation to predict VO2max from the step test was formulated. This equation was assessed for level of agreement by displaying Bland-Altman plots and calculation of intraclass correlations with measured VO2max . Validity further was assessed by employing a Jackknife procedure. The linear regression analysis generated the following equation to predict VO2max (l min(-1) ) from the step test: 0·054(BMI)+0·612(gender)+3·359(body height in m)+0·019(fitness index)-0·012(HRmax)-0·011(age)-3·475. This equation explained 78% of the variance in measured VO2max (F = 66·15, P<0·001). The level of agreement and intraclass correlation was high (ICC = 0·94, P<0·001) between measured and predicted VO2max . From this study, a valid fixed-rate single-stage step test equation has been developed to estimate VO2max in healthy adults. This tool could be employed by healthcare professionals with limited access to ergospirometry. © 2015 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Interaction between the FTO gene, body mass index and depression: meta-analysis of 13701 individuals†

PubMed Central

Rivera, Margarita; Locke, Adam E.; Corre, Tanguy; Czamara, Darina; Wolf, Christiane; Ching-Lopez, Ana; Milaneschi, Yuri; Kloiber, Stefan; Cohen-Woods, Sara; Rucker, James; Aitchison, Katherine J.; Bergmann, Sven; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Craddock, Nick; Gill, Michael; Holsboer, Florian; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Korszun, Ania; Kutalik, Zoltan; Lucae, Susanne; Maier, Wolfgang; Mors, Ole; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Owen, Michael J.; Penninx, Brenda W. J. H.; Preisig, Martin; Rice, John; Rietschel, Marcella; Tozzi, Federica; Uher, Rudolf; Vollenweider, Peter; Waeber, Gerard; Willemsen, Gonneke; Craig, Ian W.; Farmer, Anne E.; Lewis, Cathryn M.; Breen, Gerome; McGuffin, Peter

2017-01-01

Background Depression and obesity are highly prevalent, and major impacts on public health frequently co-occur. Recently, we reported that having depression moderates the effect of the FTO gene, suggesting its implication in the association between depression and obesity. Aims To confirm these findings by investigating the FTO polymorphism rs9939609 in new cohorts, and subsequently in a meta-analysis. Method The sample consists of 6902 individuals with depression and 6799 controls from three replication cohorts and two original discovery cohorts. Linear regression models were performed to test for association between rs9939609 and body mass index (BMI), and for the interaction between rs9939609 and depression status for an effect on BMI. Fixed and random effects meta-analyses were performed using METASOFT. Results In the replication cohorts, we observed a significant interaction between FTO, BMI and depression with fixed effects meta-analysis (β = 0.12, P = 2.7 × 10−4) and with the Han/Eskin random effects method (P = 1.4 × 10−7) but not with traditional random effects (β = 0.1, P = 0.35). When combined with the discovery cohorts, random effects meta-analysis also supports the interaction (β = 0.12, P = 0.027) being highly significant based on the Han/Eskin model (P = 6.9 × 10−8). On average, carriers of the risk allele who have depression have a 2.2% higher BMI for each risk allele, over and above the main effect of FTO. Conclusions This meta-analysis provides additional support for a significant interaction between FTO, depression and BMI, indicating that depression increases the effect of FTO on BMI. The findings provide a useful starting point in understanding the biological mechanism involved in the association between obesity and depression. PMID:28642257

Performance of time-varying predictors in multilevel models under an assumption of fixed or random effects.

PubMed

Baird, Rachel; Maxwell, Scott E

2016-06-01

Time-varying predictors in multilevel models are a useful tool for longitudinal research, whether they are the research variable of interest or they are controlling for variance to allow greater power for other variables. However, standard recommendations to fix the effect of time-varying predictors may make an assumption that is unlikely to hold in reality and may influence results. A simulation study illustrates that treating the time-varying predictor as fixed may allow analyses to converge, but the analyses have poor coverage of the true fixed effect when the time-varying predictor has a random effect in reality. A second simulation study shows that treating the time-varying predictor as random may have poor convergence, except when allowing negative variance estimates. Although negative variance estimates are uninterpretable, results of the simulation show that estimates of the fixed effect of the time-varying predictor are as accurate for these cases as for cases with positive variance estimates, and that treating the time-varying predictor as random and allowing negative variance estimates performs well whether the time-varying predictor is fixed or random in reality. Because of the difficulty of interpreting negative variance estimates, 2 procedures are suggested for selection between fixed-effect and random-effect models: comparing between fixed-effect and constrained random-effect models with a likelihood ratio test or fitting a fixed-effect model when an unconstrained random-effect model produces negative variance estimates. The performance of these 2 procedures is compared. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Vocalization behavior and response of black rails

USGS Publications Warehouse

Legare, M.L.; Eddleman, W.R.; Buckley, P.A.; Kelly, C.

1999-01-01

We measured the vocal responses and movements of radio-tagged black rails (Laterallus jamaicensis) (n = 43, 26 males, 17 females) to playback of vocalizations at 2 sites in Florida during the breeding seasons of 1992-95. We used regression coefficients from logistic regression equations to model the probability of a response conditional to the birds' sex, nesting status, distance to playback source, and the time of survey. With a probability of 0.811, non-nesting male black rails were most likely to respond to playback, while nesting females were the least likely to respond (probability = 0.189). Linear regression was used to determine daily, monthly, and annual variation in response from weekly playback surveys along a fixed route during the breeding seasons of 1993-95. Significant sources of variation in the linear regression model were month (F = 3.89, df = 3, p = 0.0140), year (F = 9.37, df = 2, p = 0.0003), temperature (F = 5.44, df=1, p = 0.0236), and month*year (F = 2.69, df = 5, p = 0.0311). The model was highly significant (p < 0.0001) and explained 53% of the variation of mean response per survey period (R2 = 0.5353). Response probability data obtained from the radio-tagged black rails and data from the weekly playback survey route were combined to provide a density estimate of 0.25 birds/ha for the St. Johns National Wildlife Refuge. Density estimates for black rails may be obtained from playback surveys, and fixed radius circular plots. Circular plots should be considered as having a radius of 80 m and be located so the plot centers are 150 m apart. Playback tapes should contain one series of Kic-kic-kerr and Growl vocalizations recorded within the same geographic region as the study area. Surveys should be conducted from 0-2 hours after sunrise or 0-2 hours before sunset, during the pre-nesting season, and when wind velocity is < 20 kph. Observers should listen for 3-4 minutes after playing the survey tape and record responses heard during that time. Observers should be trained to identify black rail vocalizations and should have acceptable hearing ability. Given the number of variables that may have large effects on the response behavior of black rails to tape playback, we recommend that future studies using playback surveys should be cautious when presenting estimates of 'absolute' density. Though results did account for variation in response behavior, we believe that additional variation in vocal response between sites, with breeding status, and bird density remains in question. Playback surveys along fixed routes providing a simple index of abundance would be useful to monitor populations over large geographic areas, and over time. Considering the limitations of most agency resources for webless waterbirds, index surveys may be more appropriate. Future telemetry studies of this type on other species and at other sites would be useful to calibrate information obtained from playback surveys whether reporting an index of abundance or density estimate.

Measuring Work Environment and Performance in Nursing Homes

PubMed Central

Temkin-Greener, Helena; Zheng, Nan (Tracy); Katz, Paul; Zhao, Hongwei; Mukamel, Dana B.

2008-01-01

Background Qualitative studies of the nursing home work environment have long suggested that such attributes as leadership and communication may be related to nursing home performance, including residents' outcomes. However, empirical studies examining these relationships have been scant. Objectives This study is designed to: develop an instrument for measuring nursing home work environment and perceived work effectiveness; test the reliability and validity of the instrument; and identify individual and facility-level factors associated with better facility performance. Research Design and Methods The analysis was based on survey responses provided by managers (N=308) and direct care workers (N=7,418) employed in 162 facilities throughout New York State. Exploratory factor analysis, Chronbach's alphas, analysis of variance, and regression models were used to assess instrument reliability and validity. Multivariate regression models, with fixed facility effects, were used to examine factors associated with work effectiveness. Results The reliability and the validity of the survey instrument for measuring work environment and perceived work effectiveness has been demonstrated. Several individual (e.g. occupation, race) and facility characteristics (e.g. management style, workplace conditions, staffing) that are significant predictors of perceived work effectiveness were identified. Conclusions The organizational performance model used in this study recognizes the multidimensionality of the work environment in nursing homes. Our findings suggest that efforts at improving work effectiveness must also be multifaceted. Empirical findings from such a line of research may provide insights for improving the quality of the work environment and ultimately the quality of residents' care. PMID:19330892

An education gradient in health, a health gradient in education, or a confounded gradient in both?

PubMed

Lynch, Jamie L; von Hippel, Paul T

2016-04-01

There is a positive gradient associating educational attainment with health, yet the explanation for this gradient is not clear. Does higher education improve health (causation)? Do the healthy become highly educated (selection)? Or do good health and high educational attainment both result from advantages established early in the life course (confounding)? This study evaluates these competing explanations by tracking changes in educational attainment and Self-rated Health (SRH) from age 15 to age 31 in the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, 1997 cohort. Ordinal logistic regression confirms that high-SRH adolescents are more likely to become highly educated. This is partly because adolescent SRH is associated with early advantages including adolescents' academic performance, college plans, and family background (confounding); however, net of these confounders adolescent SRH still predicts adult educational attainment (selection). Fixed-effects longitudinal regression shows that educational attainment has little causal effect on SRH at age 31. Completion of a high school diploma or associate's degree has no effect on SRH, while completion of a bachelor's or graduate degree have effects that, though significant, are quite small (less than 0.1 points on a 5-point scale). While it is possible that educational attainment would have greater effect on health at older ages, at age 31 what we see is a health gradient in education, shaped primarily by selection and confounding rather than by a causal effect of education on health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficacy and safety of nebivolol and valsartan as fixed-dose combination in hypertension: a randomised, multicentre study.

PubMed

Giles, Thomas D; Weber, Michael A; Basile, Jan; Gradman, Alan H; Bharucha, David B; Chen, Wei; Pattathil, Manoj

2014-05-31

The fixed-dose combination of any two antihypertensive drugs from different drug classes is typically more effective in reducing blood pressure than a dose increase of component monotherapy. We assessed the efficacy and safety of a fixed-dose combination of a vasodilating β blocker (nebivolol) and an angiotensin II receptor blocker (valsartan) in adults with hypertension. We did an 8-week, phase 3, multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trial at 401 US sites. Participants (age ≥18 years) with hypertension but with blood pressure less than 180/110 mm Hg were randomly assigned (2:2:2:2:2:2:2:1) by a 24-h interactive web response system in blocks of 15 to 4 weeks of double-blind treatment with nebivolol and valsartan fixed-dose combination (5 and 80 mg/day, 5 and 160 mg/day, or 10 and 160 mg/day), nebivolol (5 mg/day or 20 mg/day), valsartan (80 mg/day or 160 mg/day), or placebo. Doses were doubled in weeks 5-8; results are reported according to the final dose. Participants and research staff were masked to treatment allocation. The primary and key secondary endpoints were changes from baseline to week 8 in diastolic and systolic blood pressure, respectively. The primary statistical comparison was between the highest fixed-dose combination dose and the highest monotherapy doses; lower doses were then compared if this comparison was positive (Hochberg method for multiple testing). Efficacy analyses were by intention to treat. Safety assessments included monitoring of adverse events. Continuous efficacy parameters were analysed using an ANCOVA model; binary outcomes were analysed using a logistic regression model. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01508026. Between Jan 6, 2012, and March 15, 2013, 4161 patients were randomly assigned (277 to placebo and 554-555 to each active comparator group), 4118 of whom were included in the primary analysis. At week 8, the fixed-dose combination 20 and 320 mg/day group had significantly greater reductions in diastolic blood pressure from baseline than both nebivolol 40 mg/day (least-squares mean difference -1·2 mm Hg, 95% CI -2·3 to -0·1; p=0·030) and valsartan 320 mg/day (-4·4 mm Hg, -5·4 to -3·3; p<0·0001); all other comparisons were also significant, favouring the fixed-dose combinations (all p<0·0001). All systolic blood pressure comparisons were also significant (all p<0·01). At least one treatment-emergent adverse event was experienced by 30-36% of participants in each group. Nebivolol and valsartan fixed-dose combination is an effective and well-tolerated treatment option for patients with hypertension. Forest Research Institute. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors associated with the relationship between motorcycle deaths and economic growth.

PubMed

Law, Teik Hua; Noland, Robert B; Evans, Andrew W

2009-03-01

This paper examines the Kuznets curve relationship for motorcycle deaths. The Kuznets curve describes the inverted U-shape relationship between economic development and, in this case, motorcycle deaths. In early stages of development we expect deaths to increase with increasing motorization. Eventually deaths decrease as technical, policy and political institutions respond to demands for increased safety. We examine this effect as well as some of the factors which might explain the Kuznets relationship: in particular motorcycle helmet laws, medical care and technology improvements, and variables representing the quality of political institutions. We apply a fixed effects negative binomial regression analysis on a panel of 25 countries covering the period 1970-1999. Our results broadly suggest that implementation of road safety regulation, improvement in the quality of political institutions, and medical care and technology developments have contributed to reduced motorcycle deaths.

Green pastures: Do US real estate prices respond to population health?

PubMed

Nau, Claudia; Bishai, David

2018-01-01

We investigate whether communities with improving population health will subsequently experience rising real estate prices. Home price indices (HPIs) for 371 MSAs from 1990 to 2010 are regressed against life-expectancy five years prior. HPIs come from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Life expectancy estimates come from the Institute of Health Metrics. Our analysis uses random and fixed effect models with a comprehensive set of controls. Life expectancy predicted increases in the HPI controlling for potential confounders. We found that, this effect varied spatially. Communities that invest their revenue from property taxes in public health infrastructure could benefit from a virtuous cycle of better health leading to higher property values. Communities that do not invest in health could enter vicious cycles and this could widen geospatial health and wealth disparities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the "impact" of out-of-home placement on child well-being: approaching the problem of selection bias.

PubMed

Berger, Lawrence M; Bruch, Sarah K; Johnson, Elizabeth I; James, Sigrid; Rubin, David

2009-01-01

This study used data on 2,453 children aged 4-17 from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being and 5 analytic methods that adjust for selection factors to estimate the impact of out-of-home placement on children's cognitive skills and behavior problems. Methods included ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions and residualized change, simple change, difference-in-difference, and fixed effects models. Models were estimated using the full sample and a matched sample generated by propensity scoring. Although results from the unmatched OLS and residualized change models suggested that out-of-home placement is associated with increased child behavior problems, estimates from models that more rigorously adjust for selection bias indicated that placement has little effect on children's cognitive skills or behavior problems.

Understanding bias in relationships between the food environment and diet quality: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

PubMed

Rummo, Pasquale E; Guilkey, David K; Ng, Shu Wen; Meyer, Katie A; Popkin, Barry M; Reis, Jared P; Shikany, James M; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2017-12-01

The relationship between food environment exposures and diet behaviours is unclear, possibly because the majority of studies ignore potential residual confounding. We used 20 years (1985-1986, 1992-1993 2005-2006) of data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study across four US cities (Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Oakland, California) and instrumental variables (IV) regression to obtain causal estimates of longitudinal associations between the percentage of neighbourhood food outlets (per total food outlets within 1 km network distance of respondent residence) and an a priori diet quality score, with higher scores indicating higher diet quality. To assess the presence and magnitude of bias related to residual confounding, we compared results from causal models (IV regression) to non-causal models, including ordinary least squares regression, which does not account for residual confounding at all and fixed-effects regression, which only controls for time-invariant unmeasured characteristics. The mean diet quality score across follow-up was 63.4 (SD=12.7). A 10% increase in fast food restaurants (relative to full-service restaurants) was associated with a lower diet quality score over time using IV regression (β=-1.01, 95% CI -1.99 to -0.04); estimates were attenuated using non-causal models. The percentage of neighbourhood convenience and grocery stores (relative to supermarkets) was not associated with diet quality in any model, but estimates from non-causal models were similarly attenuated compared with causal models. Ignoring residual confounding may generate biased estimated effects of neighbourhood food outlets on diet outcomes and may have contributed to weak findings in the food environment literature. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Does social insurance enrollment improve citizen assessment of local government performance? Evidence from China.

PubMed

Huang, Xian; Gao, Qin

2018-02-01

Although many studies claim that social policies are "carrots" that authoritarian leaders use to garner public support, the assumption that social benefits can boost public support of government has been rarely tested empirically, especially at the local levels. This article investigates the effects of social insurance enrollment on citizens' assessment of local government performance using data from the 2010 China Family Panel Study. We use propensity score matching to reduce selection bias and ordered probit regressions with fixed effects to examine these possible effects. We find that social insurance enrollment had a significant positive effect on rural citizens' assessment of government performance, but this effect did not exist for their urban and migrant peers. This discrepancy could be largely due to the groups' different expectations for government redistribution and their distinct experiences of China's social welfare reform. We conclude that the Chinese authoritarian government has achieved partial success in its attempt to use social policies to maintain popular support. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The effect of internal possession laws on underage drinking among high school students: a 12-state analysis.

PubMed

Disney, Lynn D; LaVallee, Robin A; Yi, Hsiao-Ye

2013-06-01

We assessed the effect of internal possession (IP) laws, which allow law enforcement to charge underage drinkers with alcohol possession if they have ingested alcohol, on underage drinking behaviors. We examined Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) data from 12 states with IP laws and with YRBS data before and after each law's implementation. We used logistic regression models with fixed effects for state to assess the effects of IP laws on drinking and binge drinking among high school students. Implementation of IP laws is associated with reductions in the odds of past-month drinking. This reduction was bigger among male than among female adolescents (27% vs 15%) and only significant among younger students aged 14 and 15 years (15% and 11%, respectively). Male adolescents also reported a significant reduction (24%) in the odds of past-month binge drinking under IP laws. These findings suggest that IP laws are effective in reducing underage drinking, particularly among younger adolescents.

The Effect of Internal Possession Laws on Underage Drinking Among High School Students: A 12-State Analysis

PubMed Central

Disney, Lynn D.; Yi, Hsiao-ye

2013-01-01

Objectives. We assessed the effect of internal possession (IP) laws, which allow law enforcement to charge underage drinkers with alcohol possession if they have ingested alcohol, on underage drinking behaviors. Methods. We examined Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) data from 12 states with IP laws and with YRBS data before and after each law’s implementation. We used logistic regression models with fixed effects for state to assess the effects of IP laws on drinking and binge drinking among high school students. Results. Implementation of IP laws is associated with reductions in the odds of past-month drinking. This reduction was bigger among male than among female adolescents (27% vs 15%) and only significant among younger students aged 14 and 15 years (15% and 11%, respectively). Male adolescents also reported a significant reduction (24%) in the odds of past-month binge drinking under IP laws. Conclusions. These findings suggest that IP laws are effective in reducing underage drinking, particularly among younger adolescents. PMID:23597385

Correlation among extinction efficiency and other parameters in an aggregate dust model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhar, Tanuj Kumar; Sekhar Das, Himadri

2017-10-01

We study the extinction properties of highly porous Ballistic Cluster-Cluster Aggregate dust aggregates in a wide range of complex refractive indices (1.4≤ n≤ 2.0, 0.001≤ k≤ 1.0) and wavelengths (0.11 {{μ }}{{m}}≤ {{λ }}≤ 3.4 {{μ }} m). An attempt has been made for the first time to investigate the correlation among extinction efficiency ({Q}{ext}), composition of dust aggregates (n,k), wavelength of radiation (λ) and size parameter of the monomers (x). If k is fixed at any value between 0.001 and 1.0, {Q}{ext} increases with increase of n from 1.4 to 2.0. {Q}{ext} and n are correlated via linear regression when the cluster size is small, whereas the correlation is quadratic at moderate and higher sizes of the cluster. This feature is observed at all wavelengths (ultraviolet to optical to infrared). We also find that the variation of {Q}{ext} with n is very small when λ is high. When n is fixed at any value between 1.4 and 2.0, it is observed that {Q}{ext} and k are correlated via a polynomial regression equation (of degree 1, 2, 3 or 4), where the degree of the equation depends on the cluster size, n and λ. The correlation is linear for small size and quadratic/cubic/quartic for moderate and higher sizes. We have also found that {Q}{ext} and x are correlated via a polynomial regression (of degree 3, 4 or 5) for all values of n. The degree of regression is found to be n and k-dependent. The set of relations obtained from our work can be used to model interstellar extinction for dust aggregates in a wide range of wavelengths and complex refractive indices.

Effects of supplemental vibrational force on space closure, treatment duration, and occlusal outcome: A multicenter randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

DiBiase, Andrew T; Woodhouse, Neil R; Papageorgiou, Spyridon N; Johnson, Nicola; Slipper, Carmel; Grant, James; Alsaleh, Maryam; Khaja, Yousef; Cobourne, Martyn T

2018-04-01

A multicenter parallel 3-arm randomized clinical trial was carried out in 3 university hospitals in the United Kingdom to investigate the effect of supplemental vibratory force on space closure and treatment outcome with fixed appliances. Eighty-one subjects less than 20 years of age with mandibular incisor irregularity undergoing extraction-based fixed appliance treatment were randomly allocated to supplementary (20 minutes/day) use of an intraoral vibrational device (AcceleDent; OrthoAccel Technologies, Houston, Tex) (n = 29), an identical nonfunctional (sham) device (n = 25), or fixed-appliance only (n = 27). Space closure in the mandibular arch was measured from dental study casts taken at the start of space closure, at the next appointment, and at completion of space closure. Final records were taken at completion of treatment. Data were analyzed blindly on a per-protocol basis with descriptive statistics, 1-way analysis of variance, and linear regression modeling with 95% confidence intervals. Sixty-one subjects remained in the trial at start of space closure, with all 3 groups comparable for baseline characteristics. The overall median rate of initial mandibular arch space closure (primary outcome) was 0.89 mm per month with no difference for either the AcceleDent group (difference, -0.09 mm/month; 95% CI, -0.39 to 0.22 mm/month; P = 0.57) or the sham group (difference, -0.02 mm/month; 95% CI, -0.32 to 0.29 mm/month; P = 0.91) compared with the fixed only group. Similarly, no significant differences were identified between groups for secondary outcomes, including overall treatment duration (median, 18.6 months; P >0.05), number of visits (median, 12; P >0.05), and percentage of improvement in the Peer Assessment Rating (median, 90.0%; P >0.05). Supplemental vibratory force during orthodontic treatment with fixed appliances does not affect space closure, treatment duration, total number of visits, or final occlusal outcome. NCT02314975. The protocol was not published before trial commencement. AcceleDent units were donated by OrthoAccel Technologies; no contribution to the conduct or the writing of this study was made by the manufacturer. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Independent contrasts and PGLS regression estimators are equivalent.

PubMed

Blomberg, Simon P; Lefevre, James G; Wells, Jessie A; Waterhouse, Mary

2012-05-01

We prove that the slope parameter of the ordinary least squares regression of phylogenetically independent contrasts (PICs) conducted through the origin is identical to the slope parameter of the method of generalized least squares (GLSs) regression under a Brownian motion model of evolution. This equivalence has several implications: 1. Understanding the structure of the linear model for GLS regression provides insight into when and why phylogeny is important in comparative studies. 2. The limitations of the PIC regression analysis are the same as the limitations of the GLS model. In particular, phylogenetic covariance applies only to the response variable in the regression and the explanatory variable should be regarded as fixed. Calculation of PICs for explanatory variables should be treated as a mathematical idiosyncrasy of the PIC regression algorithm. 3. Since the GLS estimator is the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE), the slope parameter estimated using PICs is also BLUE. 4. If the slope is estimated using different branch lengths for the explanatory and response variables in the PIC algorithm, the estimator is no longer the BLUE, so this is not recommended. Finally, we discuss whether or not and how to accommodate phylogenetic covariance in regression analyses, particularly in relation to the problem of phylogenetic uncertainty. This discussion is from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives.

Is scale-invariance in gauge-Yukawa systems compatible with the graviton?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christiansen, Nicolai; Eichhorn, Astrid; Held, Aaron

2017-10-01

We explore whether perturbative interacting fixed points in matter systems can persist under the impact of quantum gravity. We first focus on semisimple gauge theories and show that the leading order gravity contribution evaluated within the functional Renormalization Group framework preserves the perturbative fixed-point structure in these models discovered in [J. K. Esbensen, T. A. Ryttov, and F. Sannino, Phys. Rev. D 93, 045009 (2016)., 10.1103/PhysRevD.93.045009]. We highlight that the quantum-gravity contribution alters the scaling dimension of the gauge coupling, such that the system exhibits an effective dimensional reduction. We secondly explore the effect of metric fluctuations on asymptotically safe gauge-Yukawa systems which feature an asymptotically safe fixed point [D. F. Litim and F. Sannino, J. High Energy Phys. 12 (2014) 178., 10.1007/JHEP12(2014)178]. The same effective dimensional reduction that takes effect in pure gauge theories also impacts gauge-Yukawa systems. There, it appears to lead to a split of the degenerate free fixed point into an interacting infrared attractive fixed point and a partially ultraviolet attractive free fixed point. The quantum-gravity induced infrared fixed point moves towards the asymptotically safe fixed point of the matter system, and annihilates it at a critical value of the gravity coupling. Even after that fixed-point annihilation, graviton effects leave behind new partially interacting fixed points for the matter sector.

Measurement of faculty anesthesiologists' quality of clinical supervision has greater reliability when controlling for the leniency of the rating anesthesia resident: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Ledolter, Johannes; Hindman, Bradley J

2017-06-01

Our department monitors the quality of anesthesiologists' clinical supervision and provides each anesthesiologist with periodic feedback. We hypothesized that greater differentiation among anesthesiologists' supervision scores could be obtained by adjusting for leniency of the rating resident. From July 1, 2013 to December 31, 2015, our department has utilized the de Oliveira Filho unidimensional nine-item supervision scale to assess the quality of clinical supervision provided by faculty as rated by residents. We examined all 13,664 ratings of the 97 anesthesiologists (ratees) by the 65 residents (raters). Testing for internal consistency among answers to questions (large Cronbach's alpha > 0.90) was performed to rule out that one or two questions accounted for leniency. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to compare ratees while controlling for rater leniency vs using Student t tests without rater leniency. The mean supervision scale score was calculated for each combination of the 65 raters and nine questions. The Cronbach's alpha was very large (0.977). The mean score was calculated for each of the 3,421 observed combinations of resident and anesthesiologist. The logits of the percentage of scores equal to the maximum value of 4.00 were normally distributed (residents, P = 0.24; anesthesiologists, P = 0.50). There were 20/97 anesthesiologists identified as significant outliers (13 with below average supervision scores and seven with better than average) using the mixed-effects logistic regression with rater leniency entered as a fixed effect but not by Student's t test. In contrast, there were three of 97 anesthesiologists identified as outliers (all three above average) using Student's t tests but not by logistic regression with leniency. The 20 vs 3 was significant (P < 0.001). Use of logistic regression with leniency results in greater detection of anesthesiologists with significantly better (or worse) clinical supervision scores than use of Student's t tests (i.e., without adjustment for rater leniency).

Factors explaining priority setting at community mental health centres: a quantitative analysis of referral assessments.

PubMed

Grepperud, Sverre; Holman, Per Arne; Wangen, Knut Reidar

2014-12-14

Clinicians at Norwegian community mental health centres assess referrals from general practitioners and classify them into three priority groups (high priority, low priority, and refusal) according to need where need is defined by three prioritization criteria (severity, effect, and cost-effectiveness). In this study, we seek to operationalize the three criteria and analyze to what extent they have an effect on clinical-level priority setting after controlling for clinician characteristics and organisational factors. Twenty anonymous referrals were rated by 42 admission team members employed at 14 community mental health centres in the South-East Health Region of Norway. Intra-class correlation coefficients were calculated and logistic regressions were performed. Variation in clinicians' assessments of the three criteria was highest for effect and cost-effectiveness. An ordered logistic regression model showed that all three criteria for prioritization, three clinician characteristics (education, being a manager or not, and "guideline awareness"), and the centres themselves (fixed effects), explained priority decisions. The relative importance of the explanatory factors, however, depended on the priority decision studied. For the classification of all admitted patients into high- and low-priority groups, all clinician characteristics became insignificant. For the classification of patients, into those admitted and non-admitted, one criterion (effect) and "being a manager or not" became insignificant, while profession ("being a psychiatrist") became significant. Our findings suggest that variation in priority decisions can be reduced by: (i) reducing the disagreement in clinicians' assessments of cost-effectiveness and effect, and (ii) restricting priority decisions to clinicians with a similar background (education, being a manager or not, and "guideline awareness").

Effect of vitamins C and E on insulin resistance in diabetes: a meta-analysis study.

PubMed

Khodaeian, Mehrnoosh; Tabatabaei-Malazy, Ozra; Qorbani, Mostafa; Farzadfar, Farshad; Amini, Peyvand; Larijani, Bagher

2015-11-01

Data regarding the effect of vitamin C (VC) and vitamin E (VE) supplementation on insulin resistance in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are controversial. We aimed to systematically review the current data on this topic. All randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted to assess the effect of VC and/or VE on insulin resistance in diabetes published in Google Scholar and PubMed web databases until January 2014 were included. Exclusion criteria were studies conducted in animal, type 1 DM, children or pregnant women. Main outcome measure was insulin resistance by homoeostasis model assessment (HOMA) index. According to degree of heterogeneity, fixed- or random-effect model was employed by stata software (11.0). We selected 14 RCTs involving 735 patients with T2DM. VE or mixture-mode supplementation did not have any significant effect on HOMA with a standardized mean difference (SMD): 0·017, 95% CI: -0·376 to 0·411 (P = 0·932); and SMD: -0·035, 95% CI: -0·634 to 0·025 (P = 0·070), respectively, by random-effect model. VC supplement alone did not improve insulin resistance with a SMD: -0·150, 95% CI: -0·494 to 0·194 (P = 0·391), by fixed-effect model. Meta-regression test demonstrated that HOMA index may have not been influenced by the year of publication, dosage or duration of treatment. The sole intake of VC, VE or their combination with other antioxidants could not improve insulin resistance in diabetes. © 2015 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Walkability and cardiometabolic risk factors: Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Braun, Lindsay M; Rodríguez, Daniel A; Evenson, Kelly R; Hirsch, Jana A; Moore, Kari A; Diez Roux, Ana V

2016-05-01

We used data from 3227 older adults in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2004-2012) to explore cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between walkability and cardiometabolic risk factors. In cross-sectional analyses, linear regression was used to estimate associations of Street Smart Walk Score® with glucose, triglycerides, HDL and LDL cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and waist circumference, while logistic regression was used to estimate associations with odds of metabolic syndrome. Econometric fixed effects models were used to estimate longitudinal associations of changes in walkability with changes in each risk factor among participants who moved residential locations between 2004 and 2012 (n=583). Most cross-sectional and longitudinal associations were small and statistically non-significant. We found limited evidence that higher walkability was cross-sectionally associated with lower blood pressure but that increases in walkability were associated with increases in triglycerides and blood pressure over time. Further research over longer time periods is needed to understand the potential for built environment interventions to improve cardiometabolic health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the 2013 Southeast Asian Haze on Solar Generation Performance

PubMed Central

Maghami, Mohammadreza; Hizam, Hashim; Gomes, Chandima; Hajighorbani, Shahrooz; Rezaei, Nima

2015-01-01

Pollution in Southeast Asia is a major public energy problem and the cause of energy losses. A significant problem with respect to this type of pollution is that it decreases energy yield. In this study, two types of photovoltaic (PV) solar arrays were used to evaluate the effect of air pollution. The performance of two types of solar arrays were analysed in this research, namely, two units of a 1 kWp tracking flat photovoltaic (TFP) and two units of a 1 kWp fixed flat photovoltaic arrays (FFP). Data analysis was conducted on 2,190 samples at 30 min intervals from 01st June 2013, when both arrays were washed, until 30th June 2013. The performance was evaluated by using environmental data (irradiation, temperature, dust thickness, and air pollution index), power output, and energy yield. Multiple regression models were predicted in view of the environmental data and PV array output. Results showed that the fixed flat system was more affected by air pollution than the tracking flat plate. The contribution of this work is that it considers two types of photovoltaic arrays under the Southeast Asian pollution 2013. PMID:26275303

The effects of practice on movement distance and final position reproduction: implications for the equilibrium-point control of movements.

PubMed

Jaric, S; Corcos, D M; Gottlieb, G L; Ilic, D B; Latash, M L

1994-01-01

Predictions of two views on single-joint motor control, namely programming of muscle force patterns and equilibrium-point control, were compared with the results of experiments with reproduction of movement distance and final location during fast unidirectional elbow flexions. Two groups of subjects were tested. The first group practiced movements over a fixed distance (36 degrees), starting from seven different initial positions (distance group, DG). The second group practiced movements from the same seven initial positions to a fixed final location (location group, LG). Later, all the subjects were tested at the practiced task with their eyes closed, and then, unexpectedly for the subjects, they were tested at the other, unpracticed task. In both groups, the task to reproduce final position had lower indices of final position variability than the task to reproduce movement distance. Analysis of the linear regression lines between initial position and final position (or movement distance) also demonstrated a better (more accurate) performance during final position reproduction than during distance reproduction. The data are in a good correspondence with the predictions of the equilibrium-point hypothesis, but not with the predictions of the force-pattern control approach.

Strategy, structure, and patient quality outcomes in ambulatory surgery centers (1997-2004).

PubMed

Chukmaitov, Askar; Devers, Kelly J; Harless, David W; Menachemi, Nir; Brooks, Robert G

2011-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine potential associations among ambulatory surgery centers' (ASCs) organizational strategy, structure, and quality performance. The authors obtained several large-scale, all-payer claims data sets for the 1997 to 2004 period. The authors operationalized quality performance as unplanned hospitalizations at 30 days after outpatient arthroscopy and colonoscopy procedures. The authors draw on related organizational theory, behavior, and health services research literatures to develop their conceptual framework and hypotheses and fitted fixed and random effects Poisson regression models with the count of unplanned hospitalizations. Consistent with the key hypotheses formulated, the findings suggest that higher levels of specialization and the volume of procedures may be associated with a decrease in unplanned hospitalizations at ASCs.

[Child malnutrition, infrastructure and income in Mexico].

PubMed

Ayala-Gaytán, Edgardo A; Díaz Durán-Hernández, Andrea

2015-01-01

Explain the variation in child malnutrition (CM), understood as low height for age (0 to 5 years old) for the period 1999-2006. State estimations of child malnutrition and several indicators of subjacent probable causes of CM were employed, such as poverty indices, state product per capita, women scholar attainment and access to health and the sewage system. Panel data regression analysis with fixed and random effects were used to analyze the data. The results indicate that the lack to access to health and sewage systems and poverty worsen CM, whereas women education helps to diminish CM. The study shows that infrastructure variables explain a significant part of the recent variation in DI across Mexican states, and that economic growth is not a sufficient condition to diminish DI.

The Influence of Assay Design, Blinding, and Gymnema sylvestre on Sucrose Detection by Humans.

PubMed

Aleman, Max G; Marconi, Lauren J; Nguyen, Nam H; Park, Jae M; Patino, Maria M; Wang, Yuchi; Watkins, Celeste S; Shelley, Chris

2016-01-01

The detection and grading of tastes corresponding to different taste modalities can be tested in engaging laboratory sessions using students themselves as test subjects. This article describes a series of experiments in which data pertaining to the detection of salty and sweet tastes are obtained, and the ability of the herb Gymnema sylvestre to disrupt the detection of sucrose is quantified. The effects of blinding and different assay designs on EC50 estimation are also investigated. The data obtained allow for substantial data analysis, including non-linear regression using fixed and free parameters to quantify dose-response relationships, and the use of often under-utilized permutation tests to determine significant differences when the underlying data display heteroscedasticity.

The Influence of Assay Design, Blinding, and Gymnema sylvestre on Sucrose Detection by Humans

PubMed Central

Aleman, Max G.; Marconi, Lauren J.; Nguyen, Nam H.; Park, Jae M.; Patino, Maria M.; Wang, Yuchi; Watkins, Celeste S.; Shelley, Chris

2016-01-01

The detection and grading of tastes corresponding to different taste modalities can be tested in engaging laboratory sessions using students themselves as test subjects. This article describes a series of experiments in which data pertaining to the detection of salty and sweet tastes are obtained, and the ability of the herb Gymnema sylvestre to disrupt the detection of sucrose is quantified. The effects of blinding and different assay designs on EC50 estimation are also investigated. The data obtained allow for substantial data analysis, including non-linear regression using fixed and free parameters to quantify dose-response relationships, and the use of often under-utilized permutation tests to determine significant differences when the underlying data display heteroscedasticity. PMID:27980466

Logistic random effects regression models: a comparison of statistical packages for binary and ordinal outcomes

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Logistic random effects models are a popular tool to analyze multilevel also called hierarchical data with a binary or ordinal outcome. Here, we aim to compare different statistical software implementations of these models. Methods We used individual patient data from 8509 patients in 231 centers with moderate and severe Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) enrolled in eight Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and three observational studies. We fitted logistic random effects regression models with the 5-point Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) as outcome, both dichotomized as well as ordinal, with center and/or trial as random effects, and as covariates age, motor score, pupil reactivity or trial. We then compared the implementations of frequentist and Bayesian methods to estimate the fixed and random effects. Frequentist approaches included R (lme4), Stata (GLLAMM), SAS (GLIMMIX and NLMIXED), MLwiN ([R]IGLS) and MIXOR, Bayesian approaches included WinBUGS, MLwiN (MCMC), R package MCMCglmm and SAS experimental procedure MCMC. Three data sets (the full data set and two sub-datasets) were analysed using basically two logistic random effects models with either one random effect for the center or two random effects for center and trial. For the ordinal outcome in the full data set also a proportional odds model with a random center effect was fitted. Results The packages gave similar parameter estimates for both the fixed and random effects and for the binary (and ordinal) models for the main study and when based on a relatively large number of level-1 (patient level) data compared to the number of level-2 (hospital level) data. However, when based on relatively sparse data set, i.e. when the numbers of level-1 and level-2 data units were about the same, the frequentist and Bayesian approaches showed somewhat different results. The software implementations differ considerably in flexibility, computation time, and usability. There are also differences in the availability of additional tools for model evaluation, such as diagnostic plots. The experimental SAS (version 9.2) procedure MCMC appeared to be inefficient. Conclusions On relatively large data sets, the different software implementations of logistic random effects regression models produced similar results. Thus, for a large data set there seems to be no explicit preference (of course if there is no preference from a philosophical point of view) for either a frequentist or Bayesian approach (if based on vague priors). The choice for a particular implementation may largely depend on the desired flexibility, and the usability of the package. For small data sets the random effects variances are difficult to estimate. In the frequentist approaches the MLE of this variance was often estimated zero with a standard error that is either zero or could not be determined, while for Bayesian methods the estimates could depend on the chosen "non-informative" prior of the variance parameter. The starting value for the variance parameter may be also critical for the convergence of the Markov chain. PMID:21605357

Association between gingivitis and anterior gingival enlargement in subjects undergoing fixed orthodontic treatment.

PubMed

Zanatta, Fabricio Batistin; Ardenghi, Thiago Machado; Antoniazzi, Raquel Pippi; Pinto, Tatiana Militz Perrone; Rösing, Cassiano Kuchenbecker

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the association among gingival enlargement (GE), periodontal conditions and socio-demographic characteristics in subjects undergoing fixed orthodontic treatment. A sample of 330 patients undergoing fixed orthodontic treatment for at least 6 months were examined by a single calibrated examiner for plaque and gingival indexes, probing pocket depth, clinical attachment loss and gingival enlargement. Socio-economic background, orthodontic treatment duration and use of dental floss were assessed by oral interviews. Associations were assessed by means of unadjusted and adjusted Poisson's regression models. The presence of gingival bleeding (RR 1.01; 95% CI 1.00-1.01) and excess resin around brackets (RR 1.02; 95% CI 1.02-1.03) were associated with an increase in GE. No associations were found between socio-demographic characteristics and GE. Proximal anterior gingival bleeding and excess resin around brackets are associated with higher levels of anterior gingival enlargement in subjects under orthodontic treatment.

Association between gingivitis and anterior gingival enlargement in subjects undergoing fixed orthodontic treatment

PubMed Central

Zanatta, Fabricio Batistin; Ardenghi, Thiago Machado; Antoniazzi, Raquel Pippi; Pinto, Tatiana Militz Perrone; Rösing, Cassiano Kuchenbecker

2014-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the association among gingival enlargement (GE), periodontal conditions and socio-demographic characteristics in subjects undergoing fixed orthodontic treatment. Methods A sample of 330 patients undergoing fixed orthodontic treatment for at least 6 months were examined by a single calibrated examiner for plaque and gingival indexes, probing pocket depth, clinical attachment loss and gingival enlargement. Socio-economic background, orthodontic treatment duration and use of dental floss were assessed by oral interviews. Associations were assessed by means of unadjusted and adjusted Poisson's regression models. Results The presence of gingival bleeding (RR 1.01; 95% CI 1.00-1.01) and excess resin around brackets (RR 1.02; 95% CI 1.02-1.03) were associated with an increase in GE. No associations were found between socio-demographic characteristics and GE. Conclusion Proximal anterior gingival bleeding and excess resin around brackets are associated with higher levels of anterior gingival enlargement in subjects under orthodontic treatment. PMID:25162567

Applicability of Monte Carlo cross validation technique for model development and validation using generalised least squares regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddad, Khaled; Rahman, Ataur; A Zaman, Mohammad; Shrestha, Surendra

2013-03-01

SummaryIn regional hydrologic regression analysis, model selection and validation are regarded as important steps. Here, the model selection is usually based on some measurements of goodness-of-fit between the model prediction and observed data. In Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA), leave-one-out (LOO) validation or a fixed percentage leave out validation (e.g., 10%) is commonly adopted to assess the predictive ability of regression-based prediction equations. This paper develops a Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) technique (which has widely been adopted in Chemometrics and Econometrics) in RFFA using Generalised Least Squares Regression (GLSR) and compares it with the most commonly adopted LOO validation approach. The study uses simulated and regional flood data from the state of New South Wales in Australia. It is found that when developing hydrologic regression models, application of the MCCV is likely to result in a more parsimonious model than the LOO. It has also been found that the MCCV can provide a more realistic estimate of a model's predictive ability when compared with the LOO.

Network effects across the earnings distribution: payoffs to visible and invisible job finding assistance.

PubMed

McDonald, Steve

2015-01-01

This study makes three critical contributions to the "Do Contacts Matter?" debate. First, the widely reported null relationship between informal job searching and wages is shown to be mostly the artifact of a coding error and sample selection restrictions. Second, previous analyses examined only active informal job searching without fully considering the benefits derived from unsolicited network assistance (the "invisible hand of social capital") - thereby underestimating the network effect. Third, wage returns to networks are examined across the earnings distribution. Longitudinal data from the NLSY reveal significant wage returns for network-based job finding over formal job searching, especially for individuals who were informally recruited into their jobs (non-searchers). Fixed effects quantile regression analyses show that contacts generate wage premiums among middle and high wage jobs, but not low wage jobs. These findings challenge conventional wisdom on contact effects and advance understanding of how social networks affect wage attainment and inequality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The influence of (public) health expenditure on longevity.

PubMed

Aísa, Rosa; Clemente, Jesús; Pueyo, Fernando

2014-10-01

We report new evidence on the contribution of health expenditure to increasing life expectancy in OECD countries, differentiating the effects of public and private health expenditures. A theoretical model is presented and estimated though a cross-country fixed effects multiple regression analysis for a sample of OECD countries over the period 1980-2000. Although the effect of aggregate health expenditure is not conclusive, public health expenditure plays a significant role in enhancing longevity. However, its influence diminishes as the size of the public health sector on GDP expands, reaching a maximum around the 8 %. With the influence of public health expenditure being positive, the ambiguous effect of the aggregate expenditure suggests that the weight of public and private health sectors matters, the second having a lower impact on longevity. This might explain the poor evolution of the life expectancy in countries with a high amount of private resources devoted to health. In such cases, an extension of public services could give rise to a better outcome from the overall health investment.

Family size effects on childhood obesity: Evidence on the quantity-quality trade-off using the NLSY.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Kabir; Solomon, Keisha T

2018-05-01

In this study, we use matched mother-child data from the National Longitudinal Surveys to study the effects of family size on child health. Focusing on excess body weight indicators as children's health outcome of interest, we examine the effects of exogenous variations in family size generated by twin births and parental preference for mixed sex composition of their children. We find no significant empirical support in favor of the quantity-quality trade-off theory in instrumental variable regression analysis. This result is further substantiated when we make use of the panel aspects of the data to study child health outcomes of arrival of younger siblings at later parities. Specifically, when we employ child fixed effects analysis, results suggest that birth of a younger sibling is related to a decline in the likelihood of being overweight by 4 percentage points and a drop in the probability of illness by approximately 5 percentage points. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unemployment transitions and self-rated health in Europe: A longitudinal analysis of EU-SILC from 2008 to 2011.

PubMed

Tøge, Anne Grete; Blekesaune, Morten

2015-10-01

The Great Recession of 2008 has led to elevated unemployment in Europe and thereby revitalised the question of causal health effects of unemployment. This article applies fixed effects regression models to longitudinal panel data drawn from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions for 28 European countries from 2008 to 2011, in order to investigate changes in self-rated health around the event of becoming unemployed. The results show that the correlation between unemployment and health is partly due to a decrease in self-rated health as people enter unemployment. Such health changes vary by country of domicile, and by individual age; older workers have a steeper decline than younger workers. Health changes after the unemployment spell reveal no indication of adverse health effects of unemployment duration. Overall, this study indicates some adverse health effects of unemployment in Europe--predominantly among older workers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust inference under the beta regression model with application to health care studies.

PubMed

Ghosh, Abhik

2017-01-01

Data on rates, percentages, or proportions arise frequently in many different applied disciplines like medical biology, health care, psychology, and several others. In this paper, we develop a robust inference procedure for the beta regression model, which is used to describe such response variables taking values in (0, 1) through some related explanatory variables. In relation to the beta regression model, the issue of robustness has been largely ignored in the literature so far. The existing maximum likelihood-based inference has serious lack of robustness against outliers in data and generate drastically different (erroneous) inference in the presence of data contamination. Here, we develop the robust minimum density power divergence estimator and a class of robust Wald-type tests for the beta regression model along with several applications. We derive their asymptotic properties and describe their robustness theoretically through the influence function analyses. Finite sample performances of the proposed estimators and tests are examined through suitable simulation studies and real data applications in the context of health care and psychology. Although we primarily focus on the beta regression models with a fixed dispersion parameter, some indications are also provided for extension to the variable dispersion beta regression models with an application.

The dependence of PGA and PGV on distance and magnitude inferred from Northern California ShakeMap data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boatwright, J.; Bundock, H.; Luetgert, J.; Seekins, L.; Gee, L.; Lombard, P.

2003-01-01

We analyze peak ground velocity (PGV) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) data from 95 moderate (3.5 ??? M 100 km, the peak motions attenuate more rapidly than a simple power law (that is, r-??) can fit. Instead, we use an attenuation function that combines a fixed power law (r-0.7) with a fitted exponential dependence on distance, which is estimated as expt(-0.0063r) and exp(-0.0073r) for PGV and PGA, respectively, for moderate earthquakes. We regress log(PGV) and log(PGA) as functions of distance and magnitude. We assume that the scaling of log(PGV) and log(PGA) with magnitude can differ for moderate and large earthquakes, but must be continuous. Because the frequencies that carry PGV and PGA can vary with earthquake size for large earthquakes, the regression for large earthquakes incorporates a magnitude dependence in the exponential attenuation function. We fix the scaling break between moderate and large earthquakes at M 5.5; log(PGV) and log(PGA) scale as 1.06M and 1.00M, respectively, for moderate earthquakes and 0.58M and 0.31M for large earthquakes.

Relationship between prosthodontic status and nutritional intake in the elderly in Korea: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES IV).

PubMed

Choi, Y K; Park, D Y; Kim, Y

2014-11-01

Many health issues have been reported to be associated with poor nutritional status. We sought to examine the association between nutritional intake and oral health status in elderly people. The association between perceived disability in mastication and prosthodontic status was analysed using multiple logistic regression. Multiple linear regression was used to analyse the association between prosthodontic status and nutritional intake. The elderly subjects with partial or full dentures reported chewing difficulties 1.62-fold more frequently (95% CI: 1.06-2.49) than those with natural teeth or a fixed prosthesis after adjusting for gender, TMD (temporomandibular disorder), household income and education level. Additionally, daily nutritional intakes of energy, protein, fat, ash, calcium, phosphorus and thiamine were decreased significantly in elderly with partial or full dentures compared with those with no prosthesis or with a fixed prosthesis (P < 0.05). Our findings underline oral health status and perceived disability in mastication are associated with dietary imbalances in the elderly. We suggest that the evaluation of patients' nutritional status should be considered as a part of an overall plan for dental hygiene care. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Genetic analysis of longitudinal measurements of performance traits in selection lines for residual feed intake in Yorkshire swine.

PubMed

Cai, W; Kaiser, M S; Dekkers, J C M

2011-05-01

A 5-generation selection experiment in Yorkshire pigs for feed efficiency consists of a line selected for low residual feed intake (LRFI) and a random control line (CTRL). The objectives of this study were to use random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for daily feed intake (DFI), BW, backfat (BF), and loin muscle area (LMA) along the growth trajectory and to evaluate the effect of LRFI selection on genetic curves for DFI and BW. An additional objective was to compare random regression models using polynomials (RRP) and spline functions (RRS). Data from approximately 3 to 8 mo of age on 586 boars and 495 gilts across 5 generations were used. The average number of measurements was 85, 14, 5, and 5 for DFI, BW, BF, and LMA. The RRP models for these 4 traits were fitted with pen × on-test group as a fixed effect, second-order Legendre polynomials of age as fixed curves for each generation, and random curves for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. Different residual variances were used for the first and second halves of the test period. The RRS models were fitted with the same fixed effects and residual variance structure as the RRP models and included genetic and permanent environmental random effects for both splines and linear Legendre polynomials of age. The RRP model was used for further analysis because the RRS model had erratic estimates of phenotypic variance and heritability, despite having a smaller Bayesian information criterion than the RRP model. From 91 to 210 d of age, estimates of heritability from the RRP model ranged from 0.10 to 0.37 for boars and 0.14 to 0.26 for gilts for DFI, from 0.39 to 0.58 for boars and 0.55 to 0.61 for gilts for BW, from 0.48 to 0.61 for boars and 0.61 to 0.79 for gilts for BF, and from 0.46 to 0.55 for boars and 0.63 to 0.81 for gilts for LMA. In generation 5, LRFI pigs had lower average genetic curves than CTRL pigs for DFI and BW, especially toward the end of the test period; estimated line differences (CTRL-LRFI) for DFI were 0.04 kg/d for boars and 0.12 kg/d for gilts at 105 d and 0.20 kg/d for boars and 0.24 kg/d for gilts at 195 d. Line differences for BW were 0.17 kg for boars and 0.69 kg for gilts at 105 d and 3.49 kg for boars and 8.96 kg for gilts at 195 d. In conclusion, selection for LRFI has resulted in a lower feed intake curve and a lower BW curve toward maturity.

The economic impact of Mexico City's smoke-free law

PubMed Central

Guerrero López, Carlos Manuel; Jiménez Ruiz, Jorge Alberto; Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam

2011-01-01

Objective To evaluate the economic impact of Mexico City's 2008 smoke-free law—The Non-Smokers' Health Protection Law on restaurants, bars and nightclubs. Material and methods We used the Monthly Services Survey of businesses from January 2005 to April 2009—with revenues, employment and payments to employees as the principal outcomes. The results are estimated using a differences-in-differences regression model with fixed effects. The states of Jalisco, Nuevo León and México, where the law was not in effect, serve as a counterfactual comparison group. Results In restaurants, after accounting for observable factors and the fixed effects, there was a 24.8% increase in restaurants' revenue associated with the smoke-free law. This difference is not statistically significant but shows that, on average, restaurants did not suffer economically as a result of the law. Total wages increased by 28.2% and employment increased by 16.2%. In nightclubs, bars and taverns there was a decrease of 1.5% in revenues and an increase of 0.1% and 3.0%, respectively, in wages and employment. None of these effects are statistically significant in multivariate analysis. Conclusions There is no statistically significant evidence that the Mexico City smoke-free law had a negative impact on restaurants' income, employees' wages and levels of employment. On the contrary, the results show a positive, though statistically non-significant, impact of the law on most of these outcomes. Mexico City's experience suggests that smoke-free laws in Mexico and elsewhere will not hurt economic productivity in the restaurant and bar industries. PMID:21292808

Genetic parameters for stayability to consecutive calvings in Zebu cattle.

PubMed

Silva, D O; Santana, M L; Ayres, D R; Menezes, G R O; Silva, L O C; Nobre, P R C; Pereira, R J

2017-12-22

Longer-lived cows tend to be more profitable and the stayability trait is a selection criterion correlated to longevity. An alternative to the traditional approach to evaluate stayability is its definition based on consecutive calvings, whose main advantage is the more accurate evaluation of young bulls. However, no study using this alternative approach has been conducted for Zebu breeds. Therefore, the objective of this study was to compare linear random regression models to fit stayability to consecutive calvings of Guzerá, Nelore and Tabapuã cows and to estimate genetic parameters for this trait in the respective breeds. Data up to the eighth calving were used. The models included the fixed effects of age at first calving and year-season of birth of the cow and the random effects of contemporary group, additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual. Random regressions were modeled by orthogonal Legendre polynomials of order 1 to 4 (2 to 5 coefficients) for contemporary group, additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. Using Deviance Information Criterion as the selection criterion, the model with 4 regression coefficients for each effect was the most adequate for the Nelore and Tabapuã breeds and the model with 5 coefficients is recommended for the Guzerá breed. For Guzerá, heritabilities ranged from 0.05 to 0.08, showing a quadratic trend with a peak between the fourth and sixth calving. For the Nelore and Tabapuã breeds, the estimates ranged from 0.03 to 0.07 and from 0.03 to 0.08, respectively, and increased with increasing calving number. The additive genetic correlations exhibited a similar trend among breeds and were higher for stayability between closer calvings. Even between more distant calvings (second v. eighth), stayability showed a moderate to high genetic correlation, which was 0.77, 0.57 and 0.79 for the Guzerá, Nelore and Tabapuã breeds, respectively. For Guzerá, when the models with 4 or 5 regression coefficients were compared, the rank correlations between predicted breeding values for the intercept were always higher than 0.99, indicating the possibility of practical application of the least parameterized model. In conclusion, the model with 4 random regression coefficients is recommended for the genetic evaluation of stayability to consecutive calvings in Zebu cattle.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act's provisions regarding medical loss ratios and quality: evidence from Texas.

PubMed

Quast, Troy

2013-01-01

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) includes a provision that penalizes insurance companies if their Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) falls below a specified threshold. The MLR is roughly measured as the ratio of health care expenses to premiums paid by enrollees. I investigate whether there is a relationship between MLRs and the quality of care provided by insurance companies. I employ a ten-year sample of market-level financial data and quality variables for Texas insurers, as well as relevant control variables, in regression analyses that utilize insurer and market fixed effects. Of the 15 quality measures, only one has a statistically significant relationship with the MLR. For this measure, the relationship is negative. Although the MLR provision may provide incentives for insurance companies to lower premiums, this sample does not suggest that there is likely to be a beneficial effect on quality.

Developing spatial inequalities in carbon appropriation: a sociological analysis of changing local emissions across the United States.

PubMed

Elliott, James R; Clement, Matthew Thomas

2015-05-01

This study examines an overlooked dynamic in sociological research on greenhouse gas emissions: how local areas appropriate the global carbon cycle for use and exchange purposes as they develop. Drawing on theories of place and space, we hypothesize that development differentially drives and spatially decouples use- and exchange-oriented emissions at the local level. To test our hypotheses, we integrate longitudinal, county-level data on residential and industrial emissions from the Vulcan Project with demographic, economic and environmental data from the U.S. Census Bureau and National Land Change Database. Results from spatial regression models with two-way fixed-effects indicate that alongside innovations and efficiencies capable of reducing environmentally harmful effects of development comes a spatial disarticulation between carbon-intensive production and consumption within as well as across societies. Implications for existing theory, methods and policy are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

When patients govern: federal grant funding and uncompensated care at federally qualified health centers.

PubMed

Wright, Brad; Ricketts, Thomas C

2013-05-01

To determine if the proportion of consumers on federally qualified health center (FQHC) governing boards is associated with their use of federal grant funds to provide uncompensated care. Using FQHC data from the Uniform Data System, county-level data from the Area Resource File and governing board data from FQHC grant applications, the uncompensated care an FQHC provides relative to the amount of its federal funding is modeled as a function of board and executive committee composition using fixed-effects regression with FQHC and county-level controls. Consumer governance does not predict how much uncompensated care an FQHC provides relative to the size of its federal grant. Rather, the proportion of an FQHC's patient-mix that is uninsured drives uncompensated care provision. Aside from a small executive committee effect, consumer governance does not influence FQHCs' provision of uncompensated care. More work is needed to understand the role of consumer governance.

The Marriage Wealth Premium Revisited: Gender Disparities and Within-Individual Changes in Personal Wealth in Germany.

PubMed

Lersch, Philipp M

2017-06-01

This study examines the association between marriage and economic wealth of women and men. Going beyond previous research that focused on household wealth, I examine personal wealth, which allows identifying gender disparities in the association between marriage and wealth. Using unique data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (2002, 2007, and 2012), I apply random-effects and fixed-effects regression models to test my expectations. I find that both women and men experience substantial marriage wealth premiums not only in household wealth but also in personal wealth. However, I do not find consistent evidence for gender disparities in these general marriage premiums. Additional analyses indicate, however, that women's marriage premiums are substantially lower than men's premiums in older cohorts and when only nonhousing wealth is considered. Overall, this study provides new evidence that women and men gain unequally in their wealth attainment through marriage.

Assisted Living Expansion and the Market for Nursing Home Care

PubMed Central

Grabowski, David C; Stevenson, David G; Cornell, Portia Y

2012-01-01

Objective To analyze the effect of market-level changes in assisted living supply on nursing home utilization and resident acuity. Data Sources Primary data on the supply of assisted living over time were collected from 13 states from 1993 through 2007 and merged with nursing home-level data from the Online Survey Certification and Reporting System and market-level information from the Area Resource File. Study Design Least squares regression specification incorporating market and time-fixed effects. Principal Findings A 10 percent increase in assisted living capacity led to a 1.4 percent decline in private-pay nursing home occupancy and a 0.2–0.6 percent increase in patient acuity. Conclusions Assisted living serves as a potential substitute for nursing home care for some healthier individuals with greater financial resources, suggesting implications for policy makers, providers, and consumers. PMID:22578039

Still the Favorite? Parents' Differential Treatment of Siblings Entering Young Adulthood.

PubMed

Siennick, Sonja E

2013-08-01

This study examined within-family stability in parents' differential treatment of siblings from adolescence to young adulthood and the effect of differential treatment in young adulthood on grown siblings' relationship quality. The author used longitudinal data on parent - child and sibling relations from the sibling sample of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health ( N = 1,470 sibling dyads). Within-dyad fixed effects regression models revealed that the adolescent sibling who was closer to parents went on to be the young adult sibling who was closer to and received more material support from parents. Results from an actor - partner interdependence model revealed that differential parental financial assistance of young adult siblings predicted worse sibling relationship quality. These findings demonstrate the lasting importance of affect between parents and offspring earlier in the family life course and the relevance of within-family inequalities for understanding family relations.

Still the Favorite? Parents’ Differential Treatment of Siblings Entering Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Siennick, Sonja E.

2013-01-01

This study examined within-family stability in parents’ differential treatment of siblings from adolescence to young adulthood and the effect of differential treatment in young adulthood on grown siblings’ relationship quality. The author used longitudinal data on parent – child and sibling relations from the sibling sample of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N = 1,470 sibling dyads). Within-dyad fixed effects regression models revealed that the adolescent sibling who was closer to parents went on to be the young adult sibling who was closer to and received more material support from parents. Results from an actor – partner interdependence model revealed that differential parental financial assistance of young adult siblings predicted worse sibling relationship quality. These findings demonstrate the lasting importance of affect between parents and offspring earlier in the family life course and the relevance of within-family inequalities for understanding family relations. PMID:24244050

Globalization and suicide: an ecological study across five regions of the world.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; McClure, Rod; De Leo, Diego

2012-01-01

The impact of globalization on health is recognized to be influenced by country and regional-level factors. This study aimed to investigate the possible relationship between globalization and suicide in five world regions. An index measure of globalization was developed at the country level over 1980 to 2006. The association between the index and sex specific suicide rates was tested using a fixed-effect regression model. Over time, the globalization index seemed to be associated with increased suicide rates in Asia and the Eastern European/Baltic region. In contrast, it was associated with decreased rates in Scandinavia. There was no significant relationship between globalization and suicide in Southern and Western Europe. The effects of globalization could be determined by specific regional (i.e., cultural and societal) factors. Identification of these mediators might provide opportunities to protect countries from the adverse impacts of globalization.

The causal effect of childhood measles vaccination on educational attainment: A mother fixed-effects study in rural South Africa.

PubMed

Anekwe, Tobenna D; Newell, Marie-Louise; Tanser, Frank; Pillay, Deenan; Bärnighausen, Till

2015-09-11

Because measles vaccination prevents acute measles disease and morbidities secondary to measles, such as undernutrition, blindness, and brain damage, the vaccination may also lead to higher educational attainment. However, there has been little evidence to support this hypothesis at the population level. In this study, we estimate the causal effect of childhood measles vaccination on educational attainment among children born between 1995 and 2000 in South Africa. We use longitudinal data on measles vaccination status and school grade attainment among 4783 children. The data were collected by the Wellcome Trust Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), which is one of Africa's largest health and demographic surveillance systems. ACDIS is located in a poor, predominantly rural, Zulu-speaking community in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Using mother fixed-effects regression, we compare the school grade attainment of siblings who are discordant in their measles vaccination status but share the same mother and household. This fixed-effects approach controls for confounding due to both observed and unobserved factors that do not vary between siblings, including sibling-invariant mother and household characteristics such as attitudes toward risk, conscientiousness, and aspirations for children. We further control for a range of potential confounders that vary between siblings, such as sex of the child, year of birth, mother's age at child's birth, and birth order. We find that measles vaccination on average increases school grade attainment by 0.188 grades (95% confidence interval, 0.0424-0.334; p=0.011). Measles vaccination increased educational attainment in this poor, largely rural community in South Africa. For every five to seven children vaccinated against measles, one additional school grade was gained. The presence of a measles vaccination effect in this community is plausible because (i) measles vaccination prevents measles complications including blindness, brain damage, and undernutrition; (ii) a large number of number of children were at risk of contracting measles because of the comparatively low measles vaccination coverage; and (iii) significant measles transmission occurred in the community where this study took place during the study observation period. Our results demonstrate for the first time that measles vaccination affects human development not only through its health effects but also through its effects on education. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Prevalence and determinants of overweight and obesity in old age in Germany.

PubMed

Hajek, André; Lehnert, Thomas; Ernst, Annette; Lange, Carolin; Wiese, Birgitt; Prokein, Jana; Weyerer, Siegfried; Werle, Jochen; Pentzek, Michael; Fuchs, Angela; Luck, Tobias; Bickel, Horst; Mösch, Edelgard; Heser, Kathrin; Wagner, Michael; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; König, Hans-Helmut

2015-07-14

Mean body weight gradually increases with age. Yet, little data exists on the prevalence of excess weight in populations aged 80 years or older. Moreover, little is known about predictors of overweight and obesity in old age. Thus, the purpose of this study was: To present data on the prevalence of excess weight in old age in Germany, to investigate predictors of excess weight in a cross-sectional approach and to examine factors affecting excess weight in a longitudinal approach. Subjects consisted of 1,882 individuals aged 79 years or older. The course of excess weight was observed over 3 years. Excess weight was defined as follows: Overweight (25 kg/m(2) ≤ BMI < 30 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2)). We used fixed effects regressions to estimate effects of time dependent variables on BMI, and overweight or obesity, respectively. The majority was overweight (40.0%) or obese (13.7%). Cross-sectional regressions revealed that BMI was positively associated with younger age, severe walking impairments and negatively associated with cognitive impairments. Excess weight was positively associated with younger age, elementary education, walking impairments and physical inactivity, while excess weight was negatively associated with cognitive impairment. Longitudinal regressions showed that age and severely impaired walking disabilities reduced BMI. The probability of transitions to excess weight decreased considerably with older age and occurrence of severe walking impairments (overweight). Marked differences between predictors in cross- and longitudinal setting exist, underlining the complex nature of excess weight in old age.

Genetic analysis of partial egg production records in Japanese quail using random regression models.

PubMed

Abou Khadiga, G; Mahmoud, B Y F; Farahat, G S; Emam, A M; El-Full, E A

2017-08-01

The main objectives of this study were to detect the most appropriate random regression model (RRM) to fit the data of monthly egg production in 2 lines (selected and control) of Japanese quail and to test the consistency of different criteria of model choice. Data from 1,200 female Japanese quails for the first 5 months of egg production from 4 consecutive generations of an egg line selected for egg production in the first month (EP1) was analyzed. Eight RRMs with different orders of Legendre polynomials were compared to determine the proper model for analysis. All criteria of model choice suggested that the adequate model included the second-order Legendre polynomials for fixed effects, and the third-order for additive genetic effects and permanent environmental effects. Predictive ability of the best model was the highest among all models (ρ = 0.987). According to the best model fitted to the data, estimates of heritability were relatively low to moderate (0.10 to 0.17) showed a descending pattern from the first to the fifth month of production. A similar pattern was observed for permanent environmental effects with greater estimates in the first (0.36) and second (0.23) months of production than heritability estimates. Genetic correlations between separate production periods were higher (0.18 to 0.93) than their phenotypic counterparts (0.15 to 0.87). The superiority of the selected line over the control was observed through significant (P < 0.05) linear contrast estimates. Significant (P < 0.05) estimates of covariate effect (age at sexual maturity) showed a decreased pattern with greater impact on egg production in earlier ages (first and second months) than later ones. A methodology based on random regression animal models can be recommended for genetic evaluation of egg production in Japanese quail. © 2017 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Assessing the impact of natural policy experiments on socioeconomic inequalities in health: how to apply commonly used quantitative analytical methods?

PubMed

Hu, Yannan; van Lenthe, Frank J; Hoffmann, Rasmus; van Hedel, Karen; Mackenbach, Johan P

2017-04-20

The scientific evidence-base for policies to tackle health inequalities is limited. Natural policy experiments (NPE) have drawn increasing attention as a means to evaluating the effects of policies on health. Several analytical methods can be used to evaluate the outcomes of NPEs in terms of average population health, but it is unclear whether they can also be used to assess the outcomes of NPEs in terms of health inequalities. The aim of this study therefore was to assess whether, and to demonstrate how, a number of commonly used analytical methods for the evaluation of NPEs can be applied to quantify the effect of policies on health inequalities. We identified seven quantitative analytical methods for the evaluation of NPEs: regression adjustment, propensity score matching, difference-in-differences analysis, fixed effects analysis, instrumental variable analysis, regression discontinuity and interrupted time-series. We assessed whether these methods can be used to quantify the effect of policies on the magnitude of health inequalities either by conducting a stratified analysis or by including an interaction term, and illustrated both approaches in a fictitious numerical example. All seven methods can be used to quantify the equity impact of policies on absolute and relative inequalities in health by conducting an analysis stratified by socioeconomic position, and all but one (propensity score matching) can be used to quantify equity impacts by inclusion of an interaction term between socioeconomic position and policy exposure. Methods commonly used in economics and econometrics for the evaluation of NPEs can also be applied to assess the equity impact of policies, and our illustrations provide guidance on how to do this appropriately. The low external validity of results from instrumental variable analysis and regression discontinuity makes these methods less desirable for assessing policy effects on population-level health inequalities. Increased use of the methods in social epidemiology will help to build an evidence base to support policy making in the area of health inequalities.

Aspirin as a potential modality for the chemoprevention of breast cancer: A dose-response meta-analysis of cohort studies from 857,831 participants

PubMed Central

Lu, Liming; Shi, Leiyu; Zeng, Jingchun; Wen, Zehuai

2017-01-01

Background Previous meta-analyses on the relationship between aspirin use and breast cancer risk have drawn inconsistent results. In addition, the threshold effect of different doses, frequencies and durations of aspirin use in preventing breast cancer have yet to be established. Results The search yielded 13 prospective cohort studies (N=857,831 participants) that reported an average of 7.6 cases/1,000 person-years of breast cancer during a follow-up period of from 4.4 to 14 years. With a random effects model, a borderline significant inverse association was observed between overall aspirin use and breast cancer risk, with a summarized RR = 0.94 (P = 0.051, 95% CI 0.87-1.01). The linear regression model was a better fit for the dose-response relationship, which displayed a potential relationship between the frequency of aspirin use and breast cancer risk (RR = 0.97, 0.95 and 0.90 for 5, 10 and 20 times/week aspirin use, respectively). It was also a better fit for the duration of aspirin use and breast cancer risk (RR = 0.86, 0.73 and 0.54 for 5, 10 and 20 years of aspirin use). Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL databases through early October 2016 for relevant prospective cohort studies of aspirin use and breast cancer risk. Meta-analysis of relative risks (RR) estimates associated with aspirin intake were presented by fixed or random effects models. The dose-response meta-analysis was performed by linear trend regression and restricted cubic spline regression. Conclusion Our study confirmed a dose-response relationship between aspirin use and breast cancer risk. For clinical prevention, long term (>5 years) consistent use (2-7 times/week) of aspirin appears to be more effective in achieving a protective effect against breast cancer. PMID:28418881

Aspirin as a potential modality for the chemoprevention of breast cancer: A dose-response meta-analysis of cohort studies from 857,831 participants.

PubMed

Lu, Liming; Shi, Leiyu; Zeng, Jingchun; Wen, Zehuai

2017-06-20

Previous meta-analyses on the relationship between aspirin use and breast cancer risk have drawn inconsistent results. In addition, the threshold effect of different doses, frequencies and durations of aspirin use in preventing breast cancer have yet to be established. The search yielded 13 prospective cohort studies (N=857,831 participants) that reported an average of 7.6 cases/1,000 person-years of breast cancer during a follow-up period of from 4.4 to 14 years. With a random effects model, a borderline significant inverse association was observed between overall aspirin use and breast cancer risk, with a summarized RR = 0.94 (P = 0.051, 95% CI 0.87-1.01). The linear regression model was a better fit for the dose-response relationship, which displayed a potential relationship between the frequency of aspirin use and breast cancer risk (RR = 0.97, 0.95 and 0.90 for 5, 10 and 20 times/week aspirin use, respectively). It was also a better fit for the duration of aspirin use and breast cancer risk (RR = 0.86, 0.73 and 0.54 for 5, 10 and 20 years of aspirin use). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL databases through early October 2016 for relevant prospective cohort studies of aspirin use and breast cancer risk. Meta-analysis of relative risks (RR) estimates associated with aspirin intake were presented by fixed or random effects models. The dose-response meta-analysis was performed by linear trend regression and restricted cubic spline regression. Our study confirmed a dose-response relationship between aspirin use and breast cancer risk. For clinical prevention, long term (>5 years) consistent use (2-7 times/week) of aspirin appears to be more effective in achieving a protective effect against breast cancer.

Kinetic Study of Methyl Acetate Oxidation in a Pt/Al2O3 Fixed-Bed Reactor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoy, Michael; Li, K. Y.; Li, Jeffrey S.; Chen, S. M.; Yaws, C. L.; Chu, H. W.; Simon, W. E.

1994-01-01

To support technology development for future long-term missions, a metabolic simulator will be used in a closed chamber to test the functions of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). Methyl acetate (MA) was selected as the fuel because its metabolic respiratory quotient is near that of humans. A kinetic study of the catalytic oxidation of MA over Pt/Al203 was then conducted to support the design and operation of the simulator. Kinetic data were obtained as a conversion percentage of MA versus retention time. The reaction was studied at one atmosphere and temperatures from 220 to 340 deg. C. The inlet MA concentration was varied from 100 to 2000 ppm with retention times from 0.01 to 10 sec. A first-order rate law and a Langmuir-Hinshelwood rate equation were tested by nonlinear regression of the kinetic data to estimate rate constants in the rate law. Regression results of the L-H equation explain the kinetic data better than the results of the first-order rate law. A Taguchi experimental design was used to study the effects of temperature, retention time, and concentrations of MA, CO2, and O2 on the conversion of MA. Results indicate that temperature has greatest effect, followed by retention time, and finally MA concentration. It was further determined that the effects of CO2 and O2 concentrations, and the cross effects, are negligible.

Effect of clenbuterol on tracheal mucociliary transport in horses undergoing simulated long-distance transportation.

PubMed

Norton, J L; Jackson, K; Chen, J W; Boston, R; Nolen-Walston, R D

2013-01-01

Pneumonia is observed in horses after long-distance transportation in association with confinement of head position leading to reduction in tracheal mucociliary clearance rate (TMCR). Clenbuterol, a beta-2 agonist shown to increase TMCR in the horse, will ameliorate the effects of a fixed elevated head position on large airway contamination and inflammation in a model of long-distance transportation model. Six adult horses. A cross-over designed prospective study. Horses were maintained with a fixed elevated head position for 48 hours to simulate long-distance transport, and treated with clenbuterol (0.8 μg/kg PO q12h) or a placebo starting 12 hours before simulated transportation. TMCR was measured using a charcoal clearance technique. Data were collected at baseline and 48 hours, and included TMCR, tracheal wash cytology and quantitative culture, rectal temperature, CBC, fibrinogen, and serum TNFα, IL-10, and IL-2 levels. There was a 18-21 day washout between study arms, and data were analyzed using regression analysis and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Tracheal mucociliary clearance rate was significantly decreased after transportation in both treatment (P = .002) and placebo (P = .03) groups. There was a significant effect of treatment on TMCR, with the treatment group showing half the reduction in TMCR compared with the placebo group (P = .002). Other significant differences between before- and after-transportation samples occurred for serum fibrinogen, peripheral eosinophil count, quantitative culture, tracheal bacteria, and degenerate neutrophils, though no treatment effect was found. Treatment with clenbuterol modestly attenuates the deleterious effects of this long-distance transportation model on tracheal mucociliary clearance. Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

What types of social interactions reduce the risk of psychological distress? Fixed effects longitudinal analysis of a cohort of 30,271 middle-to-older aged Australians.

PubMed

Feng, Xiaoqi; Astell-Burt, Thomas

2016-11-01

Research on the impact of social interactions on psychological distress tends to be limited to particular forms of support, cross-sectional designs and by the spectre of omitted variables bias. A baseline sample with 3.4±0.95 years follow-up time was extracted from the 45 and Up Study. Change in the risk of psychological distress (Kessler Psychological Distress Scale) was assessed using fixed effects logistic regressions in relation to the number of times in the past week a participant: i) spent time with friends or family they did not live with; ii) talked to friends, relatives or others on the telephone; iii) attended meetings at social clubs or religious groups; and the count of people outside their home, but within one hour travel-time, participants felt close to. Separate models were fitted for men and women, adjusting for age, income, economic and couple status. An increase in the number of social interactions was associated with a reduction in the risk of psychological distress, with some gender differences. Interactions with friends or family were important for women (adjusted OR 0.85, 95%CI 0.74, 0.98, p=0.024), whereas telephone calls were effective among men (adjusted OR 0.83, 95%CI 0.72, 0.96, p=0.011). Strong effects for the number of people that can be relied on were observed for men and women, but attendance at clubs and groups was not. No age-specific effects were observed. No indicator of positive mental health. Policies targeting greater social interactions in middle-to-older age may help protect mental health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating equations estimates of trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1994-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.

Fathers’ Participation in Parenting and Maternal Parenting Stress: Variation by Relationship Status

PubMed Central

Nomaguchi, Kei; Brown, Susan L.; Leyman, Tanya M.

2015-01-01

The growing diversity in mother-father relationship status has led to a debate over the role of fathers in parenting. Little is known, however, about how fathers’ participation in parenting is linked to maternal well-being across different mother-father relationship statuses. Using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 2,062), fixed-effects as well as random-effects regression models show that overall fathers’ engagement with children and sharing in child-related chores are negatively related to maternal parenting stress. Fathers’ cooperative coparenting is negatively related to maternal parenting stress only in the random-effects model, suggesting that the association is driven by selection factors. There is little variation in these associations by mother-father relationship status, once selection factors are controlled for. These findings extend support for the current cultural emphasis on benefits of fathers’ active participation in parenting for mothers and children even after the mother-father relationship dissolved. PMID:28479649

Nonmaternal Care’s Association With Mother’s Parenting Sensitivity: A Case of Self-Selection Bias?

PubMed Central

Nomaguchi, Kei M.; DeMaris, Alfred

2013-01-01

Although attachment theory posits that the use of nonmaternal care undermines quality of mothers’ parenting, empirical evidence for this link is inconclusive. Using data from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (N = 1,233), the authors examined the associations between nonmaternal care characteristics and maternal sensitivity during the first 3 years of children’s lives, with special attention to selection effects and moderation by resource levels. Findings from fixed-effects regression models suggested that, on average, there is little relationship between nonmaternal care characteristics and maternal sensitivity, once selection factors are held constant. Some evidence of moderation effects was found, however. Excellent-quality care is related to more sensitivity for mothers with lower family income. Poor-quality care is related to lower sensitivity for single mothers, but not partnered mothers. In sum, nonmaternal care characteristics do not seem to have as much influence on mothers’ parenting as attachment theory claims. PMID:23772093

Motivational and mindfulness intervention for young adult female marijuana users

PubMed Central

de Dios, Marcel A.; Herman, Debra S.; Britton, Willoughby B.; Hagerty, Claire E.; Anderson, Bradley J.; Stein, Michael D.

2011-01-01

This pilot study tested the efficacy of a brief intervention using motivational interviewing (MI) plus mindfulness meditation (MM) to reduce marijuana use among young adult female. Thirty-four female marijuana users between the ages of 18–29 were randomized to either the intervention group (n = 22), consisting of 2 sessions of MI-MM or an assessment-only control group (n = 12). Participants’ marijuana use was assessed at baseline, 1, 2, and 3 months post-treatment. Fixed-effects regression modeling was used to analyze treatment effects. Participants randomized to the intervention group were found to use marijuana on 6.15 (z = −2.42, p=.015), 7.81 (z = −2.78, p=.005), and 6.83 (z = −2.23, p=.026) fewer days at months 1, 2, and 3, respectively, than controls. Findings from this pilot study provide preliminary evidence for the feasibility and effectiveness of a brief MI-MM for young adult female marijuana users. PMID:21940136

Divorce, approaches to learning, and children's academic achievement: a longitudinal analysis of mediated and moderated effects.

PubMed

Anthony, Christopher J; DiPerna, James Clyde; Amato, Paul R

2014-06-01

Data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study--Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K) were used to test the hypothesis that approaches to learning (ATL) mediates the link between parental divorce and academic achievement. Fixed effects regression was utilized to test for mediation, and subsequent moderation analyses examining gender and age at time of divorce also were conducted. Results indicated that divorce was associated with less growth in test scores and that ATL mediated 18% and 12% of this association in reading and mathematics respectively. Parental divorce also was associated with larger negative effects for children who experienced divorce at an older age as well as for girls' mathematics test scores. These findings contribute to the understanding of the impact of parental divorce on children's academic achievement and underscore the importance of focusing on the variability of child outcomes following parental divorce. Copyright © 2014 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Frequency of satisfaction and dissatisfaction with practice among rural-based, group-employed physicians and non-physician practitioners.

PubMed

Waddimba, Anthony C; Scribani, Melissa; Krupa, Nicole; May, John J; Jenkins, Paul

2016-10-22

Widespread dissatisfaction among United States (U.S.) clinicians could endanger ongoing reforms. Practitioners in rural/underserved areas withstand stressors that are unique to or accentuated in those settings. Medical professionals employed by integrating delivery systems are often distressed by the cacophony of organizational change(s) that such consolidation portends. We investigated the factors associated with dis/satisfaction with rural practice among doctors/non-physician practitioners employed by an integrated healthcare delivery network serving 9 counties of upstate New York, during a time of organizational transition. We linked administrative data about practice units with cross-sectional data from a self-administered multi-dimensional questionnaire that contained practitioner demographics plus valid scales assessing autonomy/relatedness needs, risk aversion, tolerance for uncertainty/ambiguity, meaningfulness of patient care, and workload. We targeted medical professionals on the institutional payroll for inclusion. We excluded those who retired, resigned or were fired during the study launch, plus members of the advisory board and research team. Fixed-effects beta regressions were performed to test univariate associations between each factor and the percent of time a provider was dis/satisfied. Factors that manifested significant fixed effects were entered into multivariate, inflated beta regression models of the proportion of time that practitioners were dis/satisfied, incorporating clustering by practice unit as a random effect. Of the 473 eligible participants. 308 (65.1 %) completed the questionnaire. 59.1 % of respondents were doctoral-level; 40.9 % mid-level practitioners. Practitioners with heavier workloads and/or greater uncertainty intolerance were less likely to enjoy top-quintile satisfaction; those deriving greater meaning from practice were more likely. Higher meaningfulness and gratified relational needs increased one's likelihood of being in the lowest quintile of dissatisfaction; heavier workload and greater intolerance of uncertainty reduced that likelihood. Practitioner demographics and most practice unit characteristics did not manifest any independent effect. Mutable factors, such as workload, work meaningfulness, relational needs, uncertainty/ambiguity tolerance, and risk-taking attitudes displayed the strongest association with practitioner satisfaction/dissatisfaction, independent of demographics and practice unit characteristics. Organizational efforts should be dedicated to a redesign of group-employment models, including more equitable division of clinical labor, building supportive peer networks, and uncertainty/risk tolerance coaching, to improve the quality of work life among rural practitioners.

Genetic variance in micro-environmental sensitivity for milk and milk quality in Walloon Holstein cattle.

PubMed

Vandenplas, J; Bastin, C; Gengler, N; Mulder, H A

2013-09-01

Animals that are robust to environmental changes are desirable in the current dairy industry. Genetic differences in micro-environmental sensitivity can be studied through heterogeneity of residual variance between animals. However, residual variance between animals is usually assumed to be homogeneous in traditional genetic evaluations. The aim of this study was to investigate genetic heterogeneity of residual variance by estimating variance components in residual variance for milk yield, somatic cell score, contents in milk (g/dL) of 2 groups of milk fatty acids (i.e., saturated and unsaturated fatty acids), and the content in milk of one individual fatty acid (i.e., oleic acid, C18:1 cis-9), for first-parity Holstein cows in the Walloon Region of Belgium. A total of 146,027 test-day records from 26,887 cows in 747 herds were available. All cows had at least 3 records and a known sire. These sires had at least 10 cows with records and each herd × test-day had at least 5 cows. The 5 traits were analyzed separately based on fixed lactation curve and random regression test-day models for the mean. Estimation of variance components was performed by running iteratively expectation maximization-REML algorithm by the implementation of double hierarchical generalized linear models. Based on fixed lactation curve test-day mean models, heritability for residual variances ranged between 1.01×10(-3) and 4.17×10(-3) for all traits. The genetic standard deviation in residual variance (i.e., approximately the genetic coefficient of variation of residual variance) ranged between 0.12 and 0.17. Therefore, some genetic variance in micro-environmental sensitivity existed in the Walloon Holstein dairy cattle for the 5 studied traits. The standard deviations due to herd × test-day and permanent environment in residual variance ranged between 0.36 and 0.45 for herd × test-day effect and between 0.55 and 0.97 for permanent environmental effect. Therefore, nongenetic effects also contributed substantially to micro-environmental sensitivity. Addition of random regressions to the mean model did not reduce heterogeneity in residual variance and that genetic heterogeneity of residual variance was not simply an effect of an incomplete mean model. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inconsistent Responding in a Criminal Forensic Setting: An Evaluation of the VRIN-r and TRIN-r Scales of the MMPI-2-RF.

PubMed

Gu, Wen; Reddy, Hima B; Green, Debbie; Belfi, Brian; Einzig, Shanah

2017-01-01

Criminal forensic evaluations are complicated by the risk that examinees will respond in an unreliable manner. Unreliable responding could occur due to lack of personal investment in the evaluation, severe mental illness, and low cognitive abilities. In this study, 31% of Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF; Ben-Porath & Tellegen, 2008/2011) profiles were invalid due to random or fixed-responding (T score ≥ 80 on the VRIN-r or TRIN-r scales) in a sample of pretrial criminal defendants evaluated in the context of treatment for competency restoration. Hierarchical regression models showed that symptom exaggeration variables, as measured by inconsistently reported psychiatric symptoms, contributed over and above education and intellectual functioning in their prediction of both random responding and fixed responding. Psychopathology variables, as measured by mood disturbance, better predicted fixed responding after controlling for estimates of cognitive abilities, but did not improve the prediction for random responding. These findings suggest that random responding and fixed responding are not only affected by education and intellectual functioning, but also by intentional exaggeration and aspects of psychopathology. Measures of intellectual functioning and effort and response style should be considered for administration in conjunction with self-report personality measures to rule out rival hypotheses of invalid profiles.

Correlation of Vitamin D status and orthodontic-induced external apical root resorption.

PubMed

Tehranchi, Azita; Sadighnia, Azin; Younessian, Farnaz; Abdi, Amir H; Shirvani, Armin

2017-01-01

Adequate Vitamin D is essential for dental and skeletal health in children and adult. The purpose of this study was to assess the correlation of serum Vitamin D level with external-induced apical root resorption (EARR) following fixed orthodontic treatment. In this cross-sectional study, the prevalence of Vitamin D deficiency (defined by25-hydroxyvitamin-D) was determined in 34 patients (23.5% male; age range 12-23 years; mean age 16.63 ± 2.84) treated with fixed orthodontic treatment. Root resorption of four maxillary incisors was measured using before and after periapical radiographs (136 measured teeth) by means of a design-to-purpose software to optimize data collection. Teeth with a maximum percentage of root resorption (%EARR) were indicated as representative root resorption for each patient. A multiple linear regression model and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to assess the association of Vitamin D status and observed EARR. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The Pearson coefficient between these two variables was determined about 0.15 ( P = 0.38). Regression analysis revealed that Vitamin D status of the patients demonstrated no significant statistical correlation with EARR, after adjustment of confounding variables using linear regression model ( P > 0.05). This study suggests that Vitamin D level is not among the clinical variables that are potential contributors for EARR. The prevalence of Vitamin D deficiency does not differ in patients with higher EARR. These data suggest the possibility that Vitamin D insufficiency may not contribute to the development of more apical root resorption although this remains to be confirmed by further longitudinal cohort studies.

Birth weight and cognitive development in adolescence: causal relationship or social selection?

PubMed

Gorman, Bridget K

2002-01-01

Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), I investigate the relationship between birth weight and cognitive development among adolescents aged 12-17. Initial OLS regression models reveal a significant, positive relationship between low birth weight and verbal ability. Controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and other adolescent characteristics modifies, but does not eliminate, this relationship. Additional models that stratify the sample by parental education illustrate the greater importance of other family and adolescent characteristics for cognitive development in adolescence, and a diminished role of birth weight. In the final section of the paper, fixed effects models of non-twin full siblings indicate no significant association between birth weight and verbal ability, suggesting that traditional cross-sectional models overstate the influence of birth weight for cognitive development in adolescence.

The impact of texting bans on motor vehicle crash-related hospitalizations.

PubMed

Ferdinand, Alva O; Menachemi, Nir; Blackburn, Justin L; Sen, Bisakha; Nelson, Leonard; Morrisey, Michael

2015-05-01

We used a panel design and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 19 states between 2003 and 2010 to examine the impact of texting bans on crash-related hospitalizations. We conducted conditional negative binomial regressions with state, year, and month fixed effects to examine changes in crash-related hospitalizations in states after the enactment of a texting ban relative to those in states without such bans. Results indicate that texting bans were associated with a 7% reduction in crash-related hospitalizations among all age groups. Texting bans were significantly associated with reductions in hospitalizations among those aged 22 to 64 years and those aged 65 years or older. Marginal reductions were seen among adolescents. States that have not passed strict texting bans should consider doing so.

Living arrangements and children's development in low-income White, Black, and Latino families.

PubMed

Foster, E Michael; Kalil, Ariel

2007-01-01

This article uses longitudinal data from approximately 2,000 low-income families participating in the national evaluation of the Comprehensive Child Development Program to examine the associations between preschool children's living arrangements and their cognitive achievement and emotional adjustment. The analysis distinguishes families in which children live only with their mothers from children who live in biological father, blended, and multigenerational households. Linkages are examined separately for White, Black, and Latino children. Fixed effects regression techniques reveal few significant associations between living arrangements and child development. These findings suggest that substantial diversity exists in the developmental contexts among children living in the same family structure. Policies seeking to change the living arrangements of low-income children may do little to improve child well-being.

The Impact of Texting Bans on Motor Vehicle Crash–Related Hospitalizations

PubMed Central

Menachemi, Nir; Blackburn, Justin L.; Sen, Bisakha; Nelson, Leonard; Morrisey, Michael

2015-01-01

We used a panel design and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 19 states between 2003 and 2010 to examine the impact of texting bans on crash-related hospitalizations. We conducted conditional negative binomial regressions with state, year, and month fixed effects to examine changes in crash-related hospitalizations in states after the enactment of a texting ban relative to those in states without such bans. Results indicate that texting bans were associated with a 7% reduction in crash-related hospitalizations among all age groups. Texting bans were significantly associated with reductions in hospitalizations among those aged 22 to 64 years and those aged 65 years or older. Marginal reductions were seen among adolescents. States that have not passed strict texting bans should consider doing so. PMID:25790409

Addressing the unemployment-mortality conundrum: non-linearity is the answer.

PubMed

Bonamore, Giorgio; Carmignani, Fabrizio; Colombo, Emilio

2015-02-01

The effect of unemployment on mortality is the object of a lively literature. However, this literature is characterized by sharply conflicting results. We revisit this issue and suggest that the relationship might be non-linear. We use data for 265 territorial units (regions) within 23 European countries over the period 2000-2012 to estimate a multivariate regression of mortality. The estimating equation allows for a quadratic relationship between unemployment and mortality. We control for various other determinants of mortality at regional and national level and we include region-specific and time-specific fixed effects. The model is also extended to account for the dynamic adjustment of mortality and possible lagged effects of unemployment. We find that the relationship between mortality and unemployment is U shaped. In the benchmark regression, when the unemployment rate is low, at 3%, an increase by one percentage point decreases average mortality by 0.7%. As unemployment increases, the effect decays: when the unemployment rate is 8% (sample average) a further increase by one percentage point decreases average mortality by 0.4%. The effect changes sign, turning from negative to positive, when unemployment is around 17%. When the unemployment rate is 25%, a further increase by one percentage point raises average mortality by 0.4%. Results hold for different causes of death and across different specifications of the estimating equation. We argue that the non-linearity arises because the level of unemployment affects the psychological and behavioural response of individuals to worsening economic conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Season and Weather Effects on Travel-Related Mood and Travel Satisfaction

PubMed Central

Ettema, Dick; Friman, Margareta; Olsson, Lars E.; Gärling, Tommy

2017-01-01

This study examines the effects of season and weather on mood (valence and activation) and travel satisfaction (measured by the Satisfaction with Travel Scale). Analyses are presented of 562 time-sampled morning commutes to work made by 363 randomly sampled people in three different Swedish cities asking them to use smartphones to report their mood in their home before and directly after the commutes. These reports as well as satisfaction with the commute obtained in summer and winter are linked to weather data and analyzed by means of fixed-effects regression analyses. The results reveal main effects of weather (temperature and precipitation) on mood and travel satisfaction (temperature, sunshine, precipitation, and wind speed). The effects of weather on mood and travel satisfaction differ depending on travel mode. Temperature leads to a more positive mood, wind leads to higher activation for public transport users, and sunshine leads to a more negative mood for cyclists and pedestrians. Sunshine and higher temperatures make travel more relaxed although not for cycling and walking, and rain and snow lead to a higher cognitive assessed quality of travel. PMID:28220100

The politics of hope and despair: the effect of presidential election outcomes on suicide rates.

PubMed

Classen, Timothy J; Dunn, Richard A

2010-01-01

This article examines the effect of election outcomes on suicide rates by combining the theory of social integration developed by Durkheim with the models of rational choice used in economics. Theory predicts that states with a greater percentage of residents who supported the losing candidate would tend to exhibit a relative increase in suicide rates. However, being around others who also supported the losing candidate may indicate a greater degree of social integration at the local level, thereby lowering relative suicide rates. We therefore use fixed-effects regression of state suicide rates from 1981 to 2005 on state election outcomes during presidential elections to determine which effect is stronger. We find that the local effect of social integration is dominant. The suicide rate when a state supports the losing candidate will tend to be lower than if the state had supported the winning candidate-4.6 percent lower for males and 5.3 percent lower for females. Social integration works at many levels; it not only affects suicide risk directly, but can mediate other shocks that influence suicide risk.

Effects of relationship duration, cohabitation, and marriage on the frequency of intercourse in couples: Findings from German panel data.

PubMed

Schröder, Jette; Schmiedeberg, Claudia

2015-07-01

Research into the changes in the frequency of sexual intercourse is (with few exceptions) limited to cross-sectional analyses of marital duration. We investigate the frequency of intercourse while taking into account relationship duration as well as the duration of cohabitation and marriage, effects of parenthood, and relationship quality. For the analysis we apply fixed effects regression models using data from the German Family Panel (pairfam), a nationwide randomly sampled German panel survey. Our findings imply that the drop in sex frequency occurs early in the relationship, whereas neither cohabitation nor marriage affects the frequency of intercourse to a significant extent. Sex frequency is reduced during pregnancy and as long as the couple has small children, but becomes revived later on. Relationship quality is found to play a role as well. These results are contrary to the honeymoon effect found in earlier research, but indicate that in times of postponed marriage an analogous effect may be at work in the initial period of the relationship. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Season and Weather Effects on Travel-Related Mood and Travel Satisfaction.

PubMed

Ettema, Dick; Friman, Margareta; Olsson, Lars E; Gärling, Tommy

2017-01-01

This study examines the effects of season and weather on mood (valence and activation) and travel satisfaction (measured by the Satisfaction with Travel Scale). Analyses are presented of 562 time-sampled morning commutes to work made by 363 randomly sampled people in three different Swedish cities asking them to use smartphones to report their mood in their home before and directly after the commutes. These reports as well as satisfaction with the commute obtained in summer and winter are linked to weather data and analyzed by means of fixed-effects regression analyses. The results reveal main effects of weather (temperature and precipitation) on mood and travel satisfaction (temperature, sunshine, precipitation, and wind speed). The effects of weather on mood and travel satisfaction differ depending on travel mode. Temperature leads to a more positive mood, wind leads to higher activation for public transport users, and sunshine leads to a more negative mood for cyclists and pedestrians. Sunshine and higher temperatures make travel more relaxed although not for cycling and walking, and rain and snow lead to a higher cognitive assessed quality of travel.

Comparison of radiographic joint space width and magnetic resonance imaging for prediction of knee replacement: A longitudinal case-control study from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

PubMed

Eckstein, Felix; Boudreau, Robert; Wang, Zhijie; Hannon, Michael J; Duryea, Jeff; Wirth, Wolfgang; Cotofana, Sebastian; Guermazi, Ali; Roemer, Frank; Nevitt, Michael; John, Markus R; Ladel, Christoph; Sharma, Leena; Hunter, David J; Kwoh, C Kent

2016-06-01

To evaluate whether change in fixed-location measures of radiographic joint space width (JSW) and cartilage thickness by MRI predict knee replacement. Knees replaced between 36 and 60 months' follow-up in the Osteoarthritis Initiative were each matched with one control by age, sex and radiographic status. Radiographic JSW was determined from fixed flexion radiographs and subregional femorotibial cartilage thickness from 3 T MRI. Changes between the annual visit before replacement (T0) and 2 years before T0 (T-2) were compared using conditional logistic regression. One hundred and nineteen knees from 102 participants (55.5 % women; age 64.2 ± 8.7 [mean ± SD] years) were studied. Fixed-location JSW change at 22.5 % from medial to lateral differed more between replaced and control knees (case-control [cc] OR = 1.57; 95 % CI: 1.23-2.01) than minimum medial JSW change (ccOR = 1.38; 95 % CI: 1.11-1.71). Medial femorotibial cartilage loss displayed discrimination similar to minimum JSW, and central tibial cartilage loss similar to fixed-location JSW. Location-independent thinning and thickening scores were elevated prior to knee replacement. Discrimination of structural progression between knee pre-placement cases versus controls was stronger for fixed-location than minimum radiographic JSW. MRI displayed similar discrimination to radiography and suggested greater simultaneous cartilage thickening and loss prior to knee replacement. • Fixed-location JSW predicts surgical knee replacement more strongly than minimum JSW. • MRI predicts knee replacement with similar accuracy to radiographic JSW. • MRI reveals greater cartilage thinning and thickening prior to knee replacement.

The impact of lay counselors on HIV testing rates: Quasi-experimental evidence from lay counselor redeployment in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

PubMed

Hu, Janice; Geldsetzer, Pascal; Steele, Sarah Jane; Matthews, Philippa; Ortblad, Katrina; Solomon, Tsion; Shroufi, Amir; van Cutsem, Gilles; Tanser, Frank; Wyke, Sally; Vollmer, Sebastian; Pillay, Deenan; Mcconnell, Margaret; Bärnighausen, Till

2018-06-14

This study aimed to determine the causal effect of the number of lay counselors employed at a primary care clinic in rural South Africa on the number of clinic-based HIV tests performed. Fixed effects panel analysis. We collected monthly data on the number of lay counselors employed and HIV tests performed at nine primary care clinics in rural KwaZulu-Natal from January 2014 to December 2015. Using clinic- and month-level fixed effects regressions, we exploited the fact that lay counselors were removed from clinics at two quasi-random time points by a redeployment policy. A total of 24,526 HIV tests were conducted over the study period. 21 of 27 lay counselors were removed across the nine clinics in the two redeployment waves. A ten percent reduction in the number of lay counselors was associated with a 4.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.8 - 7.0, p < 0.001) decrease in the number of HIV tests performed. In absolute terms, losing one lay counselor from a clinic was associated with a mean of 29.7 (95% CI: 21.2 - 38.2, p < 0.001) fewer HIV tests carried out at the clinic per month. This study provides evidence for the crucial role that lay counselors play in the HIV response in rural South Africa. More broadly, this analysis supports the use of lay cadres in the HIV response and by extension UNAIDS' and the African Union's goal to triple the number of community health workers in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020.

A population-based spatio-temporal analysis of Clostridium difficile infection in Queensland, Australia over a 10-year period.

PubMed

Furuya-Kanamori, Luis; Robson, Jenny; Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J; Yakob, Laith; McKenzie, Samantha J; Paterson, David L; Riley, Thomas V; Clements, Archie C A

2014-11-01

To identify the spatio-temporal patterns and environmental factors associated with Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in Queensland, Australia. Data from patients tested for CDI were collected from 392 postcodes across Queensland between May 2003 and December 2012. A binomial logistic regression model, with CDI status as the outcome, was built in a Bayesian framework, incorporating fixed effects for sex, age, source of the sample (healthcare facility or community), elevation, rainfall, land surface temperature, seasons of the year, time in months and spatially unstructured random effects at the postcode level. C. difficile was identified in 13.1% of the samples, the proportion significantly increased over the study period from 5.9% in 2003 to 18.8% in 2012. CDI peaked in summer (14.6%) and was at its lowest in autumn (10.1%). Other factors significantly associated with CDI included female sex (OR: 1.08; 95%CI: 1.01-1.14), community source samples (OR: 1.12; 95%CI: 1.05-1.20), and higher rainfall (OR: 1.09; 95%CI: 1.02-1.17). There was no significant spatial variation in CDI after accounting for the fixed effects in the model. There was an increasing annual trend in CDI in Queensland from 2003 to 2012. Peaks of CDI were found in summer (December-February), which is at odds with the current epidemiological pattern described for northern hemisphere countries. Epidemiologically plausible explanations for this disparity require further investigation. Copyright © 2014 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Consequence Management: Ways to Improve Fixed-Site Decontamination Capability

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-10

objective is achieved through consequence management and fixed-site decontamination operations. The effectiveness of CBRN consequence management...decontamination operations. The effectiveness of CBRN consequence management and fixed-site decontamination executed in the Joint Security Area can be...when faced with Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) contaminated ports of debarkation. The effectiveness of CBRN consequence

Comparison of the effects of antipsychotic drugs on the schedule-controlled behavior of squirrel monkeys and pigeons.

PubMed

Barrett, J E

1983-04-01

Lever pressing by squirrel monkeys and key pecking by pigeons were maintained under a multiple 3-min fixed-interval (FI), 30-response fixed-ratio (FR) schedule by the presentation of food. These responses, which differed under the two schedules, but were similar for both species, were used to compare the effects of antipsychotic compounds from different pharmacological classes. Except for differences in potency levels, the effects of intermediate doses of haloperidol and molindone were similar in monkeys and pigeons; these compounds decreased responding under the fixed-interval schedule at doses that did not affect fixed-ratio responding. Similar effects also occurred with chlorpromazine, promazine and thiothixene in pigeons. With monkeys, however, intermediate doses of promazine decreased fixed-ratio responding more than responding maintained under the fixed-interval schedule, while chlorpromazine and thiothixene produced similar effects on responding under both schedules. The effects of novel antipsychotic, clozapine, differed from those of the other agents in both monkeys and pigeons. With both species clozapine increased fixed interval responding at doses that did not affect responding under the fixed-ratio schedule. Doses required to reduce responding at least 50% were approximately 5 to 160 times greater for pigeons than for monkeys for all drugs except clozapine which was equipotent in both species. In monkeys the order of potency was haloperidol greater than molindone = thiothixene greater than chlorpromazine greater than clozapine greater than promazine, whereas in pigeons the order was haloperidol greater than thiothixene greater than clozapine greater than molindone greater than promazine greater than chlorpromazine.

Testing-Based Compiler Validation for Synchronous Languages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garoche, Pierre-Loic; Howar, Falk; Kahsai, Temesghen; Thirioux, Xavier

2014-01-01

In this paper we present a novel lightweight approach to validate compilers for synchronous languages. Instead of verifying a compiler for all input programs or providing a fixed suite of regression tests, we extend the compiler to generate a test-suite with high behavioral coverage and geared towards discovery of faults for every compiled artifact. We have implemented and evaluated our approach using a compiler from Lustre to C.

Explaining the relationship between temperament and symptoms of psychiatric disorders from preschool to middle childhood: hybrid fixed and random effects models of Norwegian and Spanish children.

PubMed

Wichstrøm, Lars; Penelo, Eva; Rensvik Viddal, Kristine; de la Osa, Nuria; Ezpeleta, Lourdes

2018-03-01

Four explanations for the concurrent and prospective associations between temperament and psychopathology in children have been suggested: predisposition, complication/scar, common cause/continuity, and pathoplasty/exacerbation. Because the confounding effects of common causes have not been ruled out in prior work, the support for the various explanations is uncertain. Screen-stratified community samples of 4-year olds in Trondheim, Norway (n = 1,042), and 3-year olds in Barcelona, Spain (n = 622), were assessed biennially for symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity (ADHD), oppositional defiant (ODD), conduct (CD), anxiety, and depressive disorders through interviewer-based psychiatric interviews across four waves of data collection. The parents completed child temperament ratings. The data were analyzed with random and fixed effects regression adjusted for all time-invariant unmeasured confounders (e.g., genetics, common methods bias, item overlap). In both Norway and Spain and across ages, negative affect predisposed children to symptoms of all disorders except CD, low effortful control predisposed children to ADHD and ODD-symptoms, and surgency predisposed children to increased ADHD-symptoms. Complication effects were observed in the Spanish children for ADHD-symptoms, which increased surgency and diminished effortful control, and for ODD-symptoms, which decreased surgency. The common cause and pathoplasty/exacerbation explanations were not supported. The present results are consistent with the view that temperament plays a causal role in the development of symptoms of psychiatric disorders in children. Because temperament is malleable, interventions targeting the affective, attentional, and behavioral regulatory components of temperament may reduce psychopathology in children. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Acute changes in community violence and increases in hospital visits and deaths from stress-responsive diseases.

PubMed

Ahern, Jennifer; Matthay, Ellicott C; Goin, Dana E; Farkas, Kriszta; Rudolph, Kara E

2018-06-06

Community violence may affect a broad range of health outcomes through physiologic stress responses and changes in health behaviors among residents. However, existing research on the health impacts of community violence suffers from problems with bias. We examined the relations of acute changes in community violence with hospital visits and deaths due to stress-responsive diseases (mental, respiratory, and cardiac conditions) in statewide data from California 2005-2013. The community violence exposure was measured as both binary spikes and continuous acute changes. We applied a combined fixed-effects and time-series design that separates the effects of violence from those of community- and individual-level confounders more effectively than past research. Temporal patterning was removed from community violence rates and disease rates in each place using a Kalman smoother, resulting in residual rates. We used linear regression with place fixed-effects to examine within-place associations of acute changes in community violence with residual rates of each outcome, controlling for local time-varying covariates. We found acute increases in hospital visits and deaths due to anxiety disorders (0.31 per 100,000; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.02,0.59), substance use (0.47 per 100,000; 95%CI 0.14,0.80), asthma (0.56 per 100,000; 95%CI 0.16,0.95), and fatal acute myocardial infarction (0.09 per 100,000; 95%CI 0.00,0.18) co-occurring with violence spikes. The pattern of findings was similar for the exposure of continuous acute violence changes. Although the associations were small, the identified increases in stress-responsive conditions suggest the possibility of health impacts of acute changes in community violence.

The Effects of Diagnostic Definitions in Claims Data on Healthcare Cost Estimates: Evidence from a Large-Scale Panel Data Analysis of Diabetes Care in Japan.

PubMed

Fukuda, Haruhisa; Ikeda, Shunya; Shiroiwa, Takeru; Fukuda, Takashi

2016-10-01

Inaccurate estimates of diabetes-related healthcare costs can undermine the efficiency of resource allocation for diabetes care. The quantification of these costs using claims data may be affected by the method for defining diagnoses. The aims were to use panel data analysis to estimate diabetes-related healthcare costs and to comparatively evaluate the effects of diagnostic definitions on cost estimates. Monthly panel data analysis of Japanese claims data. The study included a maximum of 141,673 patients with type 2 diabetes who received treatment between 2005 and 2013. Additional healthcare costs associated with diabetes and diabetes-related complications were estimated for various diagnostic definition methods using fixed-effects panel data regression models. The average follow-up period per patient ranged from 49.4 to 52.3 months. The number of patients identified as having type 2 diabetes varied widely among the diagnostic definition methods, ranging from 14,743 patients to 141,673 patients. The fixed-effects models showed that the additional costs per patient per month associated with diabetes ranged from US$180 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 178-181] to US$223 (95 % CI 221-224). When the diagnostic definition excluded rule-out diagnoses, the diabetes-related complications associated with higher additional healthcare costs were ischemic heart disease with surgery (US$13,595; 95 % CI 13,568-13,622), neuropathy/extremity disease with surgery (US$4594; 95 % CI 3979-5208), and diabetic nephropathy with dialysis (US$3689; 95 % CI 3667-3711). Diabetes-related healthcare costs are sensitive to diagnostic definition methods. Determining appropriate diagnostic definitions can further advance healthcare cost research for diabetes and its applications in healthcare policies.

Political ideology and health in Japan: a disaggregated analysis.

PubMed

Subramanian, S V; Hamano, Tsuyoshi; Perkins, Jessica M; Koyabu, Akio; Fujisawa, Yoshikazu

2010-09-01

Recent studies from the USA and Europe suggest an association between an individual's political ideology and their health status, with those claiming to be conservatives reporting better health. The presence of this association is examined in Japan. Individual-level data from the 2000-3, 2005 and 2006 Japan General Social Survey were analysed. The outcomes of interest were self-rated poor health and smoking status. The independent variable of interest was reported political beliefs on a 5-point 'left'-to-'right' scale. Covariates included age, sex, education, income, occupational status and fixed effects for survey periods. Logistic regression models were estimated. There was an inverse association between political ideology (left to right) and self-rated poor health as well as between ideology and smoking status even after adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic status and fixed effects for survey periods. Compared with those who identified as 'left', the OR for reporting poor health and smoking among those who identified as 'right' was 0.86 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.99) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.91), respectively. Health differences by political ideology have typically been interpreted as reflecting socioeconomic differences. The results from Japan corroborate the previous findings from the USA and Europe that socioeconomic differences do not account for health differences by political ideologies. Political ideology is likely to be a marker of several latent values and attitudes (eg, religiosity, individual responsibility and/or community participation) that might be beneficial for health at the individual level.

Educational inequalities in hospital care for mortally ill patients in Norway.

PubMed

Elstad, Jon Ivar

2018-02-01

Health care should be allocated fairly, irrespective of patients' social standing. Previous research suggests that highly educated patients are prioritized in Norwegian hospitals. This study examines this contentious issue by a design which addresses two methodological challenges. Control for differences in medical needs is approximated by analysing patients who died from same causes of death. Area fixed effects are used for avoiding that observed educational inequalities are contaminated by geographical differences. Men and women who died 2009-2011 at age 55-94 were examined ( N=103,000) with register data from Statistics Norway and the Norwegian Patient Registry. Educational differences in quantity of hospital-based medical care during the 12-24 months before death were analysed, separate for main causes of death. Multivariate negative binomial regression models were estimated, with fixed effects for residential areas. High-educated patients who died from cancers had significantly more outpatient consultations at somatic hospitals than low-educated patients during an average observation period of 18 months prior to death. Similar, but weaker, educational inequalities appeared for outpatient visits for patients whose deaths were due to other causes. Also, educational inequalities in number of hospital admissions were marked for those who died from cancers, but insignificant for patients who died from other causes. Even when medical needs are similar for mortally ill patients, those with high education tend to receive more medical services in Norwegian somatic hospitals than patients with low education. The roles played by physicians and patients in generating these patterns should be explored further.

Relationship between recycling rate and air pollution: Waste management in the state of Massachusetts.

PubMed

Giovanis, Eleftherios

2015-06-01

This study examines the relationship between recycling rate of solid waste and air pollution using data from a waste municipality survey in the state of Massachusetts during the period 2009-2012. Two econometric approaches are applied. The first approach is a fixed effects model, while the second is a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) with fixed effects model. The advantage of the first approach is the ability of controlling for stable time invariant characteristics of the municipalities, thereby eliminating potentially large sources of bias. The second approach is applied in order to estimate the technical efficiency and rank of each municipality accordingly. The regressions control for various demographic, economic and recycling services, such as income per capita, population density, unemployment, trash services, Pay-as-you-throw (PAYT) program and meteorological data. The findings support that a negative relationship between particulate particles in the air 2.5 μm or less in size (PM2.5) and recycling rate is presented. In addition, the pollution is increased with increases on income per capita up to $23,000-$26,000, while after this point income contributes positively on air quality. Finally, based on the efficiency derived by the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model, the municipalities which provide both drop off and curbside services for trash, food and yard waste and the PAYT program present better performance regarding the air quality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An appraisal of convergence failures in the application of logistic regression model in published manuscripts.

PubMed

Yusuf, O B; Bamgboye, E A; Afolabi, R F; Shodimu, M A

2014-09-01

Logistic regression model is widely used in health research for description and predictive purposes. Unfortunately, most researchers are sometimes not aware that the underlying principles of the techniques have failed when the algorithm for maximum likelihood does not converge. Young researchers particularly postgraduate students may not know why separation problem whether quasi or complete occurs, how to identify it and how to fix it. This study was designed to critically evaluate convergence issues in articles that employed logistic regression analysis published in an African Journal of Medicine and medical sciences between 2004 and 2013. Problems of quasi or complete separation were described and were illustrated with the National Demographic and Health Survey dataset. A critical evaluation of articles that employed logistic regression was conducted. A total of 581 articles was reviewed, of which 40 (6.9%) used binary logistic regression. Twenty-four (60.0%) stated the use of logistic regression model in the methodology while none of the articles assessed model fit. Only 3 (12.5%) properly described the procedures. Of the 40 that used the logistic regression model, the problem of convergence occurred in 6 (15.0%) of the articles. Logistic regression tends to be poorly reported in studies published between 2004 and 2013. Our findings showed that the procedure may not be well understood by researchers since very few described the process in their reports and may be totally unaware of the problem of convergence or how to deal with it.

Exploring the link between environmental pollution and economic growth in EU-28 countries: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve?

PubMed Central

Armeanu, Daniel; Vintilă, Georgeta; Gherghina, Ştefan Cristian; Drăgoi, Mihaela Cristina; Teodor, Cristian

2018-01-01

This study examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis (EKC), considering the primary energy consumption among other country-specific variables, for a panel of the EU-28 countries during the period 1990–2014. By estimating pooled OLS regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors in order to account for cross-sectional dependence, the results confirm the EKC hypothesis in the case of emissions of sulfur oxides and emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds. In addition to pooled estimations, the output of fixed-effects regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors support the EKC hypothesis for greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas emissions intensity of energy consumption, emissions of nitrogen oxides, emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and emissions of ammonia. Additionally, the empirical findings from panel vector error correction model reveal a short-run unidirectional causality from GDP per capita growth to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a bidirectional causal link between primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, since there occurred no causal link between economic growth and primary energy consumption, the neo-classical view was confirmed, namely the neutrality hypothesis. PMID:29742169

Exploring the link between environmental pollution and economic growth in EU-28 countries: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve?

PubMed

Armeanu, Daniel; Vintilă, Georgeta; Andrei, Jean Vasile; Gherghina, Ştefan Cristian; Drăgoi, Mihaela Cristina; Teodor, Cristian

2018-01-01

This study examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis (EKC), considering the primary energy consumption among other country-specific variables, for a panel of the EU-28 countries during the period 1990-2014. By estimating pooled OLS regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors in order to account for cross-sectional dependence, the results confirm the EKC hypothesis in the case of emissions of sulfur oxides and emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds. In addition to pooled estimations, the output of fixed-effects regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors support the EKC hypothesis for greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas emissions intensity of energy consumption, emissions of nitrogen oxides, emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and emissions of ammonia. Additionally, the empirical findings from panel vector error correction model reveal a short-run unidirectional causality from GDP per capita growth to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a bidirectional causal link between primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, since there occurred no causal link between economic growth and primary energy consumption, the neo-classical view was confirmed, namely the neutrality hypothesis.

Analyzing the impact of public transit usage on obesity.

PubMed

She, Zhaowei; King, Douglas M; Jacobson, Sheldon H

2017-06-01

The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of county-level public transit usage on obesity prevalence in the United States and assess the potential for public transit usage as an intervention for obesity. This study adopts an instrumental regression approach to implicitly control for potential selection bias due to possible differences in commuting preferences among obese and non-obese populations. United States health data from the 2009 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and transportation data from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey are aggregated and matched at the county level. County-level public transit accessibility and vehicle ownership rates are chosen as instrumental variables to implicitly control for unobservable commuting preferences. The results of this instrumental regression analysis suggest that a one percent increase in county population usage of public transit is associated with a 0.221 percent decrease in county population obesity prevalence at the α=0.01 statistical significance level, when commuting preferences, amount of non-travel physical activity, education level, health resource, and distribution of income are fixed. Hence, this study provides empirical support for the effectiveness of encouraging public transit usage as an intervention strategy for obesity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

College quality and hourly wages: evidence from the self-revelation model, sibling models and instrumental variables.

PubMed

Borgen, Nicolai T

2014-11-01

This paper addresses the recent discussion on confounding in the returns to college quality literature using the Norwegian case. The main advantage of studying Norway is the quality of the data. Norwegian administrative data provide information on college applications, family relations and a rich set of control variables for all Norwegian citizens applying to college between 1997 and 2004 (N = 141,319) and their succeeding wages between 2003 and 2010 (676,079 person-year observations). With these data, this paper uses a subset of the models that have rendered mixed findings in the literature in order to investigate to what extent confounding biases the returns to college quality. I compare estimates obtained using standard regression models to estimates obtained using the self-revelation model of Dale and Krueger (2002), a sibling fixed effects model and the instrumental variable model used by Long (2008). Using these methods, I consistently find increasing returns to college quality over the course of students' work careers, with positive returns only later in students' work careers. I conclude that the standard regression estimate provides a reasonable estimate of the returns to college quality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determinants of Private Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase in Response to the Partnership Program.

PubMed

Lin, Haizhen; Prince, Jeffrey T

2016-04-01

To assess three possible determinants of individuals' response in their private insurance purchases to the availability of the Partnership for Long-Term Care (PLTC) insurance program: bequest motives, financial literacy, and program awareness. The health and retirement study (HRS) merged with data on states' implementation of the PLTC program. Individual-level decision on private long-term care insurance is regressed on whether the PLTC program is being implemented for a given state-year, asset dummies, policy determinant variable, two-way and three-way interactions of these variables, and other controls, using fixed effects panel regression. Analysis used a sample between 50 and 69 years of age from 2002 to 2010, resulting in 12,695 unique individuals with a total of 39,151 observations. We find mild evidence that intent to bequest influences individual purchase of insurance. We also find that program awareness is necessary for response, while financial literacy notably increases responsiveness. Increasing response to the PLTC program among the middle class (the stated target group) requires increased efforts to create awareness of the program's existence and increased education about the program's benefits, and more generally, about long-term care risks and needs. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Poverty and Child Development: A Longitudinal Study of the Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit

PubMed Central

Hamad, Rita; Rehkopf, David H.

2016-01-01

Although adverse socioeconomic conditions are correlated with worse child health and development, the effects of poverty-alleviation policies are less understood. We examined the associations of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on child development and used an instrumental variable approach to estimate the potential impacts of income. We used data from the US National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (n = 8,186) during 1986–2000 to examine effects on the Behavioral Problems Index (BPI) and Home Observation Measurement of the Environment inventory (HOME) scores. We conducted 2 analyses. In the first, we used multivariate linear regressions with child-level fixed effects to examine the association of EITC payment size with BPI and HOME scores; in the second, we used EITC payment size as an instrument to estimate the associations of income with BPI and HOME scores. In linear regression models, higher EITC payments were associated with improved short-term BPI scores (per $1,000, β = −0.57; P = 0.04). In instrumental variable analyses, higher income was associated with improved short-term BPI scores (per $1,000, β = −0.47; P = 0.01) and medium-term HOME scores (per $1,000, β = 0.64; P = 0.02). Our results suggest that both EITC benefits and higher income are associated with modest but meaningful improvements in child development. These findings provide valuable information for health researchers and policymakers for improving child health and development. PMID:27056961

Solution of effective Hamiltonian of impurity hopping between two sites in a metal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Jinwu

1998-03-01

We analyze in detail all the possible fixed points of the effective Hamiltonian of a non-magnetic impurity hopping between two sites in a metal obtained by Moustakas and Fisher(MF). We find a line of non-fermi liquid fixed points which continuously interpolates between the 2-channel Kondo fixed point(2CK) and the one channel, two impurity Kondo (2IK) fixed point. There is one relevant direction with scaling dimension 1/2 and one leading irrelevant operator with dimension 3/2. There is also one marginal operator in the spin sector moving along this line. The additional non-fermi liquid fixed point found by MF has the same symmetry as the 2IK, it has two relevant directions with scaling dimension 1/2, therefore also unstable. The system is shown to flow to a line of fermi-liquid fixed points which continuously interpolates between the non-interacting fixed point and the 2 channel spin-flavor Kondo fixed point (2CSFK) discussed by the author previously. The effect of particle-hole symmetry breaking is discussed. The effective Hamiltonian in the external magnetic field is analysed. The scaling functions for the physical measurable quantities are derived in the different regimes; their predictions for the experiments are given. Finally the implications are given for a non-magnetic impurity hopping around three sites with triangular symmetry discussed by MF.

Multivariate random regression analysis for body weight and main morphological traits in genetically improved farmed tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus).

PubMed

He, Jie; Zhao, Yunfeng; Zhao, Jingli; Gao, Jin; Han, Dandan; Xu, Pao; Yang, Runqing

2017-11-02

Because of their high economic importance, growth traits in fish are under continuous improvement. For growth traits that are recorded at multiple time-points in life, the use of univariate and multivariate animal models is limited because of the variable and irregular timing of these measures. Thus, the univariate random regression model (RRM) was introduced for the genetic analysis of dynamic growth traits in fish breeding. We used a multivariate random regression model (MRRM) to analyze genetic changes in growth traits recorded at multiple time-point of genetically-improved farmed tilapia. Legendre polynomials of different orders were applied to characterize the influences of fixed and random effects on growth trajectories. The final MRRM was determined by optimizing the univariate RRM for the analyzed traits separately via penalizing adaptively the likelihood statistical criterion, which is superior to both the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion. In the selected MRRM, the additive genetic effects were modeled by Legendre polynomials of three orders for body weight (BWE) and body length (BL) and of two orders for body depth (BD). By using the covariance functions of the MRRM, estimated heritabilities were between 0.086 and 0.628 for BWE, 0.155 and 0.556 for BL, and 0.056 and 0.607 for BD. Only heritabilities for BD measured from 60 to 140 days of age were consistently higher than those estimated by the univariate RRM. All genetic correlations between growth time-points exceeded 0.5 for either single or pairwise time-points. Moreover, correlations between early and late growth time-points were lower. Thus, for phenotypes that are measured repeatedly in aquaculture, an MRRM can enhance the efficiency of the comprehensive selection for BWE and the main morphological traits.

Consistency evaluation of values of weight, height, and body mass index in Food Intake and Physical Activity of School Children: the quality control of data entry in the computerized system.

PubMed

Jesus, Gilmar Mercês de; Assis, Maria Alice Altenburg de; Kupek, Emil; Dias, Lizziane Andrade

2017-01-01

The quality control of data entry in computerized questionnaires is an important step in the validation of new instruments. The study assessed the consistency of recorded weight and height on the Food Intake and Physical Activity of School Children (Web-CAAFE) between repeated measures and against directly measured data. Students from the 2nd to the 5th grade (n = 390) had their weight and height directly measured and then filled out the Web-CAAFE. A subsample (n = 92) filled out the Web-CAAFE twice, three hours apart. The analysis included hierarchical linear regression, mixed linear regression model, to evaluate the bias, and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), to assess consistency. Univariate linear regression assessed the effect of gender, reading/writing performance, and computer/internet use and possession on residuals of fixed and random effects. The Web-CAAFE showed high values of ICC between repeated measures (body weight = 0.996, height = 0.937, body mass index - BMI = 0.972), and regarding the checked measures (body weight = 0.962, height = 0.882, BMI = 0.828). The difference between means of body weight, height, and BMI directly measured and recorded was 208 g, -2 mm, and 0.238 kg/m², respectively, indicating slight BMI underestimation due to underestimation of weight and overestimation of height. This trend was related to body weight and age. Height and weight data entered in the Web-CAAFE by children were highly correlated with direct measurements and with the repeated entry. The bias found was similar to validation studies of self-reported weight and height in comparison to direct measurements.

Effects of air pollution on infant and children respiratory mortality in four large Latin-American cities.

PubMed

Gouveia, Nelson; Junger, Washington Leite

2018-01-01

Air pollution is an important public health concern especially for children who are particularly susceptible. Latin America has a large children population, is highly urbanized and levels of pollution are substantially high, making the potential health impact of air pollution quite large. We evaluated the effect of air pollution on children respiratory mortality in four large urban centers: Mexico City, Santiago, Chile, and Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. Generalized Additive Models in Poisson regression was used to fit daily time-series of mortality due to respiratory diseases in infants and children, and levels of PM 10 and O 3 . Single lag and constrained polynomial distributed lag models were explored. Analyses were carried out per cause for each age group and each city. Fixed- and random-effects meta-analysis was conducted in order to combine the city-specific results in a single summary estimate. These cities host nearly 43 million people and pollution levels were above the WHO guidelines. For PM 10 the percentage increase in risk of death due to respiratory diseases in infants in a fixed effect model was 0.47% (0.09-0.85). For respiratory deaths in children 1-5 years old, the increase in risk was 0.58% (0.08-1.08) while a higher effect was observed for lower respiratory infections (LRI) in children 1-14 years old [1.38% (0.91-1.85)]. For O 3 , the only summarized estimate statistically significant was for LRI in infants. Analysis by season showed effects of O 3 in the warm season for respiratory diseases in infants, while negative effects were observed for respiratory and LRI deaths in children. We provided comparable mortality impact estimates of air pollutants across these cities and age groups. This information is important because many public policies aimed at preventing the adverse effects of pollution on health consider children as the population group that deserves the highest protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The strength of graduated drivers license programs and fatalities among teen drivers and passengers.

PubMed

Morrisey, Michael A; Grabowski, David C; Dee, Thomas S; Campbell, Christine

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of differentially stringent graduated drivers license programs on teen driver fatalities, day-time and night-time teen driver fatalities, fatalities of teen drivers with passengers present, and fatalities among teen passengers. The study uses 1992-2002 data on motor vehicle fatalities among 15-17-year-old drivers from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System to identify the effects of "good", "fair", and "marginal" GDL programs based upon designations by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Analysis is conducted using conditional negative binomial regressions with fixed effects. "Good" programs reduce total fatalities among young drivers by 19.4% (c.i. -33.0%, -5.9%). "Fair" programs reduce night-time young driver fatalities by 12.6% (c.i. -23.9%, -1.2%), but have no effect on day-time fatalities. "Marginal" programs had no statistically meaningful effect on driver fatalities. All three types of programs reduced teen passenger fatalities, but the effects of limitations on the number of passengers appear to have had only minimal effects in reducing fatalities among young drivers themselves. Stronger GDL programs are more effective than weaker programs in reducing teenage motor vehicle fatalities.

Socio-economic Correlates of Malnutrition among Married Women in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Mostafa Kamal, S M; Md Aynul, Islam

2010-12-01

This paper examines the prevalence and socio-economic correlates of malnutrition among ever married non-pregnant women of reproductive age of Bangladesh using a nationally representative weighted sample of 10,145. Body mass index was used to measure nutritional status. Both bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were employed to assess the relationship between socio-economic characteristics and women's nutritional status. Overall, 28.5% of the women were found to be underweight. The fixed effect multivariate binary logistic regression analysis yielded significantly increased risk of underweight for the young, currently working, non-Muslim, rural residents, widowed, divorced or separated women. Significant wide variations of malnourishment prevailed in the administrative regions of the country. Wealth index and women's education were the most important determinants of underweight. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the risk of being underweight was almost seven times higher (OR=6.76, 95% CI=5.20-8.80) among women with no formal education as compared to those with higher education and the likelihood of underweight was significantly (p<0.001) 5.2 times (OR=5.23, 95% CI=4.51-6.07) in the poorest as compared to their richest counterparts. Poverty alleviation programmes should be strengthened targeting the poor. Effective policies, information and health education programmes for women are required to ensure adequate access to health services and for them to understand the components of a healthy diet.

Effect of Fixed Metallic Oral Appliances on Oral Health.

PubMed

Alnazzawi, Ahmad

2018-01-01

There is a substantial proportion of the population using fixed metallic oral appliances, such as crowns and bridges, which are composed of various dental alloys. These restorations may be associated with a number of effects on oral health with variable degrees of severity, to review potential effects of using fixed metallic oral appliances, fabricated from various alloys. The MEDLINE/PubMed database was searched using certain combinations of keywords related to the topic. The search revealed that burning mouth syndrome, oral pigmentation, hypersensitivity and lichenoid reactions, and genotoxic and cytotoxic effects are the major potential oral health changes associated with fixed prosthodontic appliances. Certain oral disorders are associated with the use of fixed metallic oral appliances. Patch test is the most reliable method that can be applied for identifying metal allergy, and the simultaneous use of different alloys in the mouth is discouraged.

Beyond Absenteeism: Father Incarceration and Child Development*

PubMed Central

Geller, Amanda; Cooper, Carey E.; Garfinkel, Irwin; Schwartz-Soicher, Ofira; Mincy, Ronald B.

2013-01-01

High rates of incarceration among American men, coupled with high rates of fatherhood among men in prison, have motivated recent research on the effects of parental imprisonment on children’s development. We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to examine the relationship between paternal incarceration and developmental outcomes for approximately 3,000 urban children. We estimate cross-sectional and longitudinal regression models that control not only for fathers’ basic demographic characteristics and a rich set of potential confounders, but also for several measures of pre-incarceration child development and family fixed effects. We find significant increases in aggressive behaviors among children whose fathers are incarcerated, and some evidence of increased attention problems. The estimated effects of paternal incarceration are stronger than those of other forms of father absence, suggesting that children with incarcerated fathers may require specialized support from caretakers, teachers, and social service providers. The estimated effects are stronger for children who lived with their fathers prior to incarceration, but are also significant for children of nonresident fathers, suggesting that incarceration places children at risk through family hardships including and beyond parent-child separation. PMID:22203452

When Do Laws Matter? National Minimum-Age-of-Marriage Laws, Child Rights, and Adolescent Fertility, 1989–2007

PubMed Central

Kim, Minzee; Longhofer, Wesley; Boyle, Elizabeth Heger; Nyseth, Hollie

2014-01-01

Using the case of adolescent fertility, we ask the questions of whether and when national laws have an effect on outcomes above and beyond the effects of international law and global organizing. To answer these questions, we utilize a fixed-effect time-series regression model to analyze the impact of minimum-age-of-marriage laws in 115 poor- and middle-income countries from 1989 to 2007. We find that countries with strict laws setting the minimum age of marriage at 18 experienced the most dramatic decline in rates of adolescent fertility. Trends in countries that set this age at 18 but allowed exceptions (for example, marriage with parental consent) were indistinguishable from countries that had no such minimum-age-of-marriage law. Thus, policies that adhere strictly to global norms are more likely to elicit desired outcomes. The article concludes with a discussion of what national law means in a diffuse global system where multiple actors and institutions make the independent effect of law difficult to identify. PMID:25525281

The impact of unemployment cycles on child and maternal health in Argentina.

PubMed

Wehby, George L; Gimenez, Lucas G; López-Camelo, Jorge S

2017-03-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of economic cycles in Argentina on infant and maternal health between 1994 and 2006, a period that spans the major economic crisis in 1999-2002. We evaluate the effects of province-level unemployment rates on several infant health outcomes, including birth weight, gestational age, fetal growth rate, and hospital discharge status after birth in a sample of 15,000 infants born in 13 provinces. Maternal health and healthcare outcomes include acute and chronic illnesses, infectious diseases, and use of prenatal visits and technology. Regression models control for hospital and year fixed effects and province-specific time trends. Unemployment rise reduces fetal growth rate particularly among high educated parents. Also, maternal poverty-related infectious diseases increase, although reporting of acute illnesses declines (an effect more pronounced among low educated parents). There is also some evidence for reduced access to prenatal care and technology among less educated parents with higher unemployment. Unemployment rise in Argentina has adversely affected certain infant and maternal health outcomes, but several measures show no evidence of significant change.

Spontaneous Velocity Effect of Musical Expression on Self-Paced Walking.

PubMed

Buhmann, Jeska; Desmet, Frank; Moens, Bart; Van Dyck, Edith; Leman, Marc

2016-01-01

The expressive features of music can influence the velocity of walking. So far, studies used instructed (and intended) synchronization. But is this velocity effect still present with non-instructed (spontaneous) synchronization? To figure that out, participants were instructed to walk in their own comfort tempo on an indoor track, first in silence and then with tempo-matched music. We compared velocities of silence and music conditions. The results show that some music has an activating influence, increasing velocity and motivation, while other music has a relaxing influence, decreasing velocity and motivation. The influence of musical expression on the velocity of self-paced walking can be predicted with a regression model using only three sonic features explaining 56% of the variance. Phase-coherence between footfall and beat did not contribute to the velocity effect, due to its implied fixed pacing. The findings suggest that the velocity effect depends on vigor entrainment that influences both stride length and pacing. Our findings are relevant for preventing injuries, for gait improvement in walking rehabilitation, and for improving performance in sports activities.

Spontaneous Velocity Effect of Musical Expression on Self-Paced Walking

PubMed Central

Buhmann, Jeska; Desmet, Frank; Moens, Bart; Van Dyck, Edith; Leman, Marc

2016-01-01

The expressive features of music can influence the velocity of walking. So far, studies used instructed (and intended) synchronization. But is this velocity effect still present with non-instructed (spontaneous) synchronization? To figure that out, participants were instructed to walk in their own comfort tempo on an indoor track, first in silence and then with tempo-matched music. We compared velocities of silence and music conditions. The results show that some music has an activating influence, increasing velocity and motivation, while other music has a relaxing influence, decreasing velocity and motivation. The influence of musical expression on the velocity of self-paced walking can be predicted with a regression model using only three sonic features explaining 56% of the variance. Phase-coherence between footfall and beat did not contribute to the velocity effect, due to its implied fixed pacing. The findings suggest that the velocity effect depends on vigor entrainment that influences both stride length and pacing. Our findings are relevant for preventing injuries, for gait improvement in walking rehabilitation, and for improving performance in sports activities. PMID:27167064

Carbon dioxide stripping in aquaculture -- part III: model verification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colt, John; Watten, Barnaby; Pfeiffer, Tim

2012-01-01

Based on conventional mass transfer models developed for oxygen, the use of the non-linear ASCE method, 2-point method, and one parameter linear-regression method were evaluated for carbon dioxide stripping data. For values of KLaCO2 < approximately 1.5/h, the 2-point or ASCE method are a good fit to experimental data, but the fit breaks down at higher values of KLaCO2. How to correct KLaCO2 for gas phase enrichment remains to be determined. The one-parameter linear regression model was used to vary the C*CO2 over the test, but it did not result in a better fit to the experimental data when compared to the ASCE or fixed C*CO2 assumptions.

Divergent estimation error in portfolio optimization and in linear regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondor, I.; Varga-Haszonits, I.

2008-08-01

The problem of estimation error in portfolio optimization is discussed, in the limit where the portfolio size N and the sample size T go to infinity such that their ratio is fixed. The estimation error strongly depends on the ratio N/T and diverges for a critical value of this parameter. This divergence is the manifestation of an algorithmic phase transition, it is accompanied by a number of critical phenomena, and displays universality. As the structure of a large number of multidimensional regression and modelling problems is very similar to portfolio optimization, the scope of the above observations extends far beyond finance, and covers a large number of problems in operations research, machine learning, bioinformatics, medical science, economics, and technology.

Survival times for cats with hyperthyroidism treated with a 3.35 mCi iodine-131 dose: a retrospective study of 96 cases.

PubMed

Vagney, Marie; Desquilbet, Loic; Reyes-Gomez, Edouard; Delisle, Françoise; Devauchelle, Patrick; Rodriguez-Piñeiro, Maria Isabel; Rosenberg, Dan; de Fornel-Thibaud, Pauline

2018-06-01

Objectives Radioiodine ( 131 I) dose determination using radiotracer kinetic studies or scoring systems, and fixed relatively high 131 I dose (ie, 4 or 5 mCi) administration, are effective and associated with prolonged survival times for hyperthyroid cats. The latter method is less complicated but could expose patients and veterinary personnel to unnecessary levels of radiation. The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the efficacy of a fixed 3.35 mCi 131 I dose for the treatment of 96 hyperthyroid cats with no length estimation for any palpated goitre ⩾20 mm, assess outcome and identify factors associated with survival. Methods Serum total thyroxine concentrations at diagnosis and at follow-up times, survival times and cause of death were recorded. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with time to any cause of death from 131 I therapy initiation. Results Administration of a median (interquartile range) dose of 3.35 mCi (3.27-3.44 mCi) radioiodine was an effective treatment in 94/96 cats, but two cats remained hyperthyroid. No death related to hyperthyroidism was recorded. Median survival time was 3.0 years; the 1 and 2 year survival rates after 131 I therapy were 90% and 78%, respectively. Low body weight (⩽3.1 kg; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 5.88; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.22-16.67; P <0.01) and male gender (aHR 2.63; 95% CI 1.01-7.14; P = 0.04) were independently associated with death, whereas age, prior treatment with antithyroid drugs, reason for treatment and pretreatment azotaemia were not. Conclusions and relevance This study suggests that a fixed 3.35 mCi 131 I dose treatment is effective for hyperthyroid cats with goitre(s) with a maximal length estimation <20 mm, that long-term survival can be achieved and that low body weight and male gender are significantly associated with shorter survival times.

Psychiatric diagnoses are not mental processes: Wittgenstein on conceptual confusion.

PubMed

Rosenman, Stephen; Nasti, Julian

2012-11-01

Empirical explanation and treatment repeatedly fail for psychiatric diagnoses. Diagnosis is mired in conceptual confusion that is illuminated by Ludwig Wittgenstein's later critique of philosophy (Philosophical Investigations). This paper examines conceptual confusions in the foundation of psychiatric diagnosis from some of Wittgenstein's important critical viewpoints. Diagnostic terms are words whose meanings are given by usages not definitions. Diagnoses, by Wittgenstein's analogy with 'games', have various and evolving usages that are connected by family relationships, and no essence or core phenomenon connects them. Their usages will change according to the demands and contexts in which they are employed. Diagnoses, like many psychological terms, such as 'reading' or 'understanding', are concepts that refer not to fixed behavioural or mental states but to complex apprehensions of the relationship of a variety of behavioural phenomena with the world. A diagnosis is a sort of concept that cannot be located in or explained by a mental process. A diagnosis is an exercise in language and its usage changes according to the context and the needs it addresses. Diagnoses have important uses but they are irreducibly heterogeneous and cannot be identified with or connected to particular mental processes or even with a unity of phenomena that can be addressed empirically. This makes understandable not only the repeated failure of empirical science to replicate or illuminate genetic, neurophysiologic, psychic or social processes underlying diagnoses but also the emptiness of a succession of explanatory theories and treatment effects that cannot be repeated or stubbornly regress to the mean. Attempts to fix the meanings of diagnoses to allow empirical explanation will and should fail as there is no foundation on which a fixed meaning can be built and it can only be done at the cost of the relevance and usefulness of diagnosis.

Olfactory-visual congruence effects stable across ages: yellow is warmer when it is pleasantly lemony.

PubMed

Guerdoux, Estelle; Trouillet, Raphaël; Brouillet, Denis

2014-07-01

This study aimed to examine the age-related differences in the olfactory-visual cross-correspondences and the extent to which they are moderated by the odors pleasantness. Sixty participants aged from 20- to 75- years (young, middle-aged and older adults) performed a priming task to explore the influence of six olfactory primes (lemon, orange, rose, thyme, mint and fish) on the categorization (cool vs. warm) of six subsequent color targets (yellow, orange, pink, malachite green, grass-green, and blue-gray). We tested mixed effects models. Response times were regressed on covariates models using both fixed effects (Groups of age, olfactory Pleasantness and multimodal Condition) and cross-random effects (Subject, Color and Odor). The random effects coding for Odor (p < .001) and Color (p = .001) were significant. There was a significant interaction effect ( p= .004) between Condition × Pleasantness, but not with Groups of age. The compatibility effect (i.e., when odors and colors were congruent, the targets processing were facilitated) was as much enhanced as the olfactory primes were pleasant. Cross-correspondences between olfaction and vision may be robust in aging. They should be considered alongside spatiotemporal but also emotional congruency.

Fixed or adapted conditioning intensity for repeated conditioned pain modulation.

PubMed

Hoegh, M; Petersen, K K; Graven-Nielsen, T

2017-12-29

Aims Conditioned pain modulation (CPM) is used to assess descending pain modulation through a test stimulation (TS) and a conditioning stimulation (CS). Due to potential carry-over effects, sequential CPM paradigms might alter the intensity of the CS, which potentially can alter the CPM-effect. This study aimed to investigate the difference between a fixed and adaptive CS intensity on CPM-effect. Methods On the dominant leg of 20 healthy subjects the cuff pressure detection threshold (PDT) was recorded as TS and the pain tolerance threshold (PTT) was assessed on the non-dominant leg for estimating the CS. The difference in PDT before and during CS defined the CPM-effect. The CPM-effect was assessed four times using a CS with intensities of 70% of baseline PTT (fixed) or 70% of PTT measured throughout the session (adaptive). Pain intensity of the conditioning stimulus was assessed on a numeric rating scale (NRS). Data were analyzed with repeated-measures ANOVA. Results No difference was found comparing the four PDTs assessed before CSs for the fixed and the adaptive paradigms. The CS pressure intensity for the adaptive paradigm was increasing during the four repeated assessments (P < 0.01). The pain intensity was similar during the fixed (NRS: 5.8±0.5) and the adjusted paradigm (NRS: 6.0±0.4). The CPM-effect was higher using the fixed condition compared with the adaptive condition (P < 0.05). Conclusions The current study found that sequential CPM paradigms using a fixed conditioning stimulus produced an increased CPM-effect compared with adaptive and increasing conditioning intensities.

Exploring unobserved heterogeneity in bicyclists' red-light running behaviors at different crossing facilities.

PubMed

Guo, Yanyong; Li, Zhibin; Wu, Yao; Xu, Chengcheng

2018-06-01

Bicyclists running the red light at crossing facilities increase the potential of colliding with motor vehicles. Exploring the contributing factors could improve the prediction of running red-light probability and develop countermeasures to reduce such behaviors. However, individuals could have unobserved heterogeneities in running a red light, which make the accurate prediction more challenging. Traditional models assume that factor parameters are fixed and cannot capture the varying impacts on red-light running behaviors. In this study, we employed the full Bayesian random parameters logistic regression approach to account for the unobserved heterogeneous effects. Two types of crossing facilities were considered which were the signalized intersection crosswalks and the road segment crosswalks. Electric and conventional bikes were distinguished in the modeling. Data were collected from 16 crosswalks in urban area of Nanjing, China. Factors such as individual characteristics, road geometric design, environmental features, and traffic variables were examined. Model comparison indicates that the full Bayesian random parameters logistic regression approach is statistically superior to the standard logistic regression model. More red-light runners are predicted at signalized intersection crosswalks than at road segment crosswalks. Factors affecting red-light running behaviors are gender, age, bike type, road width, presence of raised median, separation width, signal type, green ratio, bike and vehicle volume, and average vehicle speed. Factors associated with the unobserved heterogeneity are gender, bike type, signal type, separation width, and bike volume. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlation of Vitamin D status and orthodontic-induced external apical root resorption

PubMed Central

Tehranchi, Azita; Sadighnia, Azin; Younessian, Farnaz; Abdi, Amir H.; Shirvani, Armin

2017-01-01

Background: Adequate Vitamin D is essential for dental and skeletal health in children and adult. The purpose of this study was to assess the correlation of serum Vitamin D level with external-induced apical root resorption (EARR) following fixed orthodontic treatment. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, the prevalence of Vitamin D deficiency (defined by25-hydroxyvitamin-D) was determined in 34 patients (23.5% male; age range 12–23 years; mean age 16.63 ± 2.84) treated with fixed orthodontic treatment. Root resorption of four maxillary incisors was measured using before and after periapical radiographs (136 measured teeth) by means of a design-to-purpose software to optimize data collection. Teeth with a maximum percentage of root resorption (%EARR) were indicated as representative root resorption for each patient. A multiple linear regression model and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to assess the association of Vitamin D status and observed EARR. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The Pearson coefficient between these two variables was determined about 0.15 (P = 0.38). Regression analysis revealed that Vitamin D status of the patients demonstrated no significant statistical correlation with EARR, after adjustment of confounding variables using linear regression model (P > 0.05). Conclusion: This study suggests that Vitamin D level is not among the clinical variables that are potential contributors for EARR. The prevalence of Vitamin D deficiency does not differ in patients with higher EARR. These data suggest the possibility that Vitamin D insufficiency may not contribute to the development of more apical root resorption although this remains to be confirmed by further longitudinal cohort studies. PMID:29238379

Fixed-Time Schedule Effects in Combination with Response-Dependent Schedules

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borrero, John C.; Bartels-Meints, Jamie A.; Sy, Jolene R.; Francisco, Monica T.

2011-01-01

We evaluated the effects of fixed-interval (FI), fixed-time (FT), and conjoint (combined) FI FT reinforcement schedules on the responding of 3 adults who had been diagnosed with schizophrenia. Responding on vocational tasks decreased for 2 of 3 participants under FT alone relative to FI alone. Responding under FI FT resulted in response…

The Effect of Interference on Temporal Order Memory for Random and Fixed Sequences in Nondemented Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tolentino, Jerlyn C.; Pirogovsky, Eva; Luu, Trinh; Toner, Chelsea K.; Gilbert, Paul E.

2012-01-01

Two experiments tested the effect of temporal interference on order memory for fixed and random sequences in young adults and nondemented older adults. The results demonstrate that temporal order memory for fixed and random sequences is impaired in nondemented older adults, particularly when temporal interference is high. However, temporal order…

Private investment purchase and nursing home financial health.

PubMed

Orfaly Cadigan, Rebecca; Stevenson, David G; Caudry, Daryl J; Grabowski, David C

2015-02-01

To explore the impact of nursing home acquisition by private investment firms on nursing home costs, revenue, and overall financial health. Merged data from the Medicare Cost Reports and the Online Survey, Certification, and Reporting system for the period 1998-2010. Regression specification incorporating facility and time fixed effects. We found little impact on the financial health of nursing homes following purchase by private investment companies. However, our findings did suggest that private investment firms acquired nursing home chains in good financial health, possibly to derive profit from the company's real estate holdings. Private investment acquired facilities are an important feature of today's nursing home sector. Although we did not observe a negative impact on the financial health of nursing homes, this development raises important issues about ownership oversight and transparency for the entire nursing home sector. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

THE ROLE OF LOCATION IN EVALUATING RACIAL WAGE DISPARITY.

PubMed

Black, Dan A; Kolesnikova, Natalia; Sanders, Seth G; Taylor, Lowell J

2013-05-01

A standard object of empirical analysis in labor economics is a modified Mincer wage function in which an individual's log wage is specified to be a function of education, experience, and an indicator variable identifying race. We analyze this approach in a context in which individuals live and work in different locations (and thus face different housing prices and wages). Our model provides a justification for the traditional approach, but with the important caveat that the regression should include location-specific fixed effects. Empirical analyses of men in U.S. labor markets demonstrate that failure to condition on location causes us to (i) overstate the decline in black-white wage disparity over the past 60 years, and (ii) understate racial and ethnic wage gaps that remain after taking into account measured cognitive skill differences that emerge when workers are young.

Messing Up Texas?: A Re-Analysis of the Effects of Executions on Homicides.

PubMed

Brandt, Patrick T; Kovandzic, Tomislav V

2015-01-01

Executions in Texas from 1994-2005 do not deter homicides, contrary to the results of Land et al. (2009). We find that using different models--based on pre-tests for unit roots that correct for earlier model misspecifications--one cannot reject the null hypothesis that executions do not lead to a change in homicides in Texas over this period. Using additional control variables, we show that variables such as the number of prisoners in Texas may drive the main drop in homicides over this period. Such conclusions however are highly sensitive to model specification decisions, calling into question the assumptions about fixed parameters and constant structural relationships. This means that using dynamic regressions to account for policy changes that may affect homicides need to be done with significant care and attention.

Messing Up Texas?: A Re-Analysis of the Effects of Executions on Homicides

PubMed Central

Brandt, Patrick T.; Kovandzic, Tomislav V.

2015-01-01

Executions in Texas from 1994–2005 do not deter homicides, contrary to the results of Land et al. (2009). We find that using different models—based on pre-tests for unit roots that correct for earlier model misspecifications—one cannot reject the null hypothesis that executions do not lead to a change in homicides in Texas over this period. Using additional control variables, we show that variables such as the number of prisoners in Texas may drive the main drop in homicides over this period. Such conclusions however are highly sensitive to model specification decisions, calling into question the assumptions about fixed parameters and constant structural relationships. This means that using dynamic regressions to account for policy changes that may affect homicides need to be done with significant care and attention. PMID:26398193

Single-parent households and children's educational achievement: A state-level analysis.

PubMed

Amato, Paul R; Patterson, Sarah; Beattie, Brett

2015-09-01

Although many studies have examined associations between family structure and children's educational achievement at the individual level, few studies have considered how the increase in single-parent households may have affected children's educational achievement at the population level. We examined changes in the percentage of children living with single parents between 1990 and 2011 and state mathematics and reading scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress. Regression models with state and year fixed effects revealed that changes in the percentage of children living with single parents were not associated with test scores. Increases in maternal education, however, were associated with improvements in children's test scores during this period. These results do not support the notion that increases in single parenthood have had serious consequences for U.S. children's school achievement. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative study of safety and efficacy of synthetic surgical glue for mesh fixation in ventral rectopexy.

PubMed

Silveira, Raquel Kelner; Domingie, Sophie; Kirzin, Sylvain; de Melo Filho, Djalma Agripino; Portier, Guillaume

2017-10-01

Ventral mesh rectopexy (VMR) is a surgical option to treat rectal prolapse with pelvic floor dysfunction (PFD). Using synthetic surgical glue to fix the mesh to the anterior rectal wall after ventral dissection could be advantageous in comparison with sutured or stapled fixation. This study aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of synthetic surgical glue for mesh fixation compared with suture mesh fixation in VMR. This observational cohort study is a retrospective analysis conducted in a University Hospital Pelvic Surgery Center. All consecutive female patients (n = 176) who underwent laparoscopic or laparotomic VMR between January 2009 and December 2014 were included. Two groups were defined based on mesh fixation technique of the rectal wall: VMR with synthetic glue (n = 66) and VMR with suture (n = 110). The recurrence-free survival after VMR was determined by Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate analysis by Cox regression. Short-term postoperative complications, postoperative symptom improvement, the need for complementary treatment postoperatively, and procedure length were evaluated. A total of 176 females patients (mean age, 58.6 ± 13.7 years) underwent VMR with synthetic mesh. Mean recurrence-free survivals after VMR were 17.16 (CI 95% 16.54-17.80) and 17.33 (CI 95% 16.89-17.77) months in the glue group and the suture group, respectively (p > 0.05). Cox regression identified an independent effect on the recurrence risk of the external rectal prolapse, alone, or in combination with other anatomical abnormalities (HR = 0.37; CI 95% 0.14-0.93; p = 0.03). There was no significant difference of short-term postoperative morbidity, procedure length, postoperative symptom improvement, or need for complementary treatment postoperatively between suture versus glue groups (all p > 0.05). Use of glue to fix the mesh in VMR was safe and had no impact on outcomes. External prolapse was the unique significant predictive factor for recurrence.

The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013.

PubMed

Ho, Li-Ming; Schafferer, Christian; Lee, Jie-Min; Yeh, Chun-Yuan; Hsieh, Chi-Jung

2017-11-01

This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries. Using panel data from the 1999-2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations. Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia. Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.

Displacement efficiency of alternative energy and trans-provincial imported electricity in China.

PubMed

Hu, Yuanan; Cheng, Hefa

2017-02-17

China has invested heavily on alternative energy, but the effectiveness of such energy sources at substituting the dominant coal-fired generation remains unknown. Here we analyse the displacement of fossil-fuel-generated electricity by alternative energy, primarily hydropower, and by trans-provincial imported electricity in China between 1995 and 2014 using two-way fixed-effects panel regression models. Nationwide, each unit of alternative energy displaces nearly one-quarter of a unit of fossil-fuel-generated electricity, while each unit of imported electricity (regardless of the generation source) displaces ∼0.3 unit of fossil-fuel electricity generated locally. Results from the six regional grids indicate that significant displacement of fossil-fuel-generated electricity occurs once the share of alternative energy in the electricity supply mix exceeds ∼10%, which is accompanied by 10-50% rebound in the consumption of fossil-fuel-generated electricity. These findings indicate the need for a policy that integrates carbon taxation, alternative energy and energy efficiency to facilitate China's transition towards a low-carbon economy.

Rich and Well Educated: Are These Requirements Necessary to Claim Healthcare Tax Credits in Italy?

PubMed

Brenna, Elenka

2018-04-01

The paper investigates the use of healthcare tax credits (HTCs) in Italy through the analysis of a panel data, which provides information on individual income tax from 2008 to 2014. There is evidence of disparities in the per-capita HTCs between Northern and Southern regions, which need to be analyzed and addressed. The aim of the paper is to investigate the socioeconomic determinants in the use of Healthcare Tax Credits in Italy. A fixed effects Ordinary Least Square model is run to analyze the impact of selected socioeconomic variables on regional per capita HTCs, with a particular focus on the role of education. The results corroborate literature findings on the regressive effects of HTCs; they also provide highlights on the role of education in explaining the distribution of HTCs among Italian regions. Public money is reimbursed to regions where people are, on average, richer and better educated. More equitable objectives could be reached by allocating the same resources in the provision of services covered by the NHS.

Flu and Finances: Influenza Outbreaks and Loan Defaults in US Cities, 2004-2012.

PubMed

Houle, Jason N; Collins, J Michael; Schmeiser, Maximilian D

2015-09-01

We examined the association between influenza outbreaks in 83 metropolitan areas and credit card and mortgage defaults, as measured in quarterly zip code-level credit data over the period of 2004 to 2012. We used ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and 2-stage least squares instrumental variables regression strategies to examine the relationship between influenza-related Google searches and 30-, 60-, and 90-day credit card and mortgage delinquency rates. We found that a proxy for influenza outbreaks is associated with a small but statistically significant increase in credit card and mortgage default rates, net of other factors. These effects are largest for 90-day defaults, suggesting that influenza outbreaks have a disproportionate impact on vulnerable borrowers who are already behind on their payments. Overall, it appears there is a relationship between exogenous health shocks (such as influenza) and credit default. The results suggest that consumer finances could benefit from policies that aim to reduce the financial shocks of illness, particularly for vulnerable borrowers.

Displacement efficiency of alternative energy and trans-provincial imported electricity in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yuanan; Cheng, Hefa

2017-02-01

China has invested heavily on alternative energy, but the effectiveness of such energy sources at substituting the dominant coal-fired generation remains unknown. Here we analyse the displacement of fossil-fuel-generated electricity by alternative energy, primarily hydropower, and by trans-provincial imported electricity in China between 1995 and 2014 using two-way fixed-effects panel regression models. Nationwide, each unit of alternative energy displaces nearly one-quarter of a unit of fossil-fuel-generated electricity, while each unit of imported electricity (regardless of the generation source) displaces ~0.3 unit of fossil-fuel electricity generated locally. Results from the six regional grids indicate that significant displacement of fossil-fuel-generated electricity occurs once the share of alternative energy in the electricity supply mix exceeds ~10%, which is accompanied by 10-50% rebound in the consumption of fossil-fuel-generated electricity. These findings indicate the need for a policy that integrates carbon taxation, alternative energy and energy efficiency to facilitate China's transition towards a low-carbon economy.

HOW POPULATION STRUCTURE SHAPES NEIGHBORHOOD SEGREGATION*

PubMed Central

Bruch, Elizabeth E.

2014-01-01

This study investigates how choices about social affiliation based on one attribute can exacerbate or attenuate segregation on another correlated attribute. The specific application is the role of racial and economic factors in generating patterns of racial residential segregation. I identify three population parameters—between-group inequality, within-group inequality, and relative group size—that determine how income inequality between race groups affects racial segregation. I use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to estimate models of individual-level residential mobility, and incorporate these estimates into agent-based models. I then simulate segregation dynamics under alternative assumptions about: (1) the relative size of minority groups; and (2) the degree of correlation between race and income among individuals. I find that income inequality can have offsetting effects at the high and low ends of the income distribution. I demonstrate the empirical relevance of the simulation results using fixed-effects, metro-level regressions applied to 1980-2000 U.S. Census data. PMID:25009360

Random regression models using different functions to model test-day milk yield of Brazilian Holstein cows.

PubMed

Bignardi, A B; El Faro, L; Torres Júnior, R A A; Cardoso, V L; Machado, P F; Albuquerque, L G

2011-10-31

We analyzed 152,145 test-day records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows recorded from 1995 to 2003. Our objective was to model variations in test-day milk yield during the first lactation of Holstein cows by random regression model (RRM), using various functions in order to obtain adequate and parsimonious models for the estimation of genetic parameters. Test-day milk yields were grouped into weekly classes of days in milk, ranging from 1 to 44 weeks. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-test-day. The analyses were performed using a single-trait RRM, including the direct additive, permanent environmental and residual random effects. In addition, contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of the age of cow at calving were included as fixed effects. The mean trend of milk yield was modeled with a fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. The additive genetic and permanent environmental covariance functions were estimated by random regression on two parametric functions, Ali and Schaeffer and Wilmink, and on B-spline functions of days in milk. The covariance components and the genetic parameters were estimated by the restricted maximum likelihood method. Results from RRM parametric and B-spline functions were compared to RRM on Legendre polynomials and with a multi-trait analysis, using the same data set. Heritability estimates presented similar trends during mid-lactation (13 to 31 weeks) and between week 37 and the end of lactation, for all RRM. Heritabilities obtained by multi-trait analysis were of a lower magnitude than those estimated by RRM. The RRMs with a higher number of parameters were more useful to describe the genetic variation of test-day milk yield throughout the lactation. RRM using B-spline and Legendre polynomials as base functions appears to be the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data.

Meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis of outcomes of carotid endarterectomy and stenting in the elderly.

PubMed

Antoniou, George A; Georgiadis, George S; Georgakarakos, Efstratios I; Antoniou, Stavros A; Bessias, Nikos; Smyth, John Vincent; Murray, David; Lazarides, Miltos K

2013-12-01

Uncertainty exists about the influence of advanced age on the outcomes of carotid revascularization. To undertake a comprehensive review of the literature and conduct an analysis of the outcomes of carotid interventions in the elderly. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify articles comparing early outcomes of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) or carotid stenting (CAS) in elderly and young patients. Combined overall effect sizes were calculated using fixed or random effects models. Meta-regression models were formed to explore potential heterogeneity as a result of changes in practice over time. RESULTS Our analysis comprised 44 studies reporting data on 512,685 CEA and 75,201 CAS procedures. Carotid stenting was associated with increased incidence of stroke in elderly patients compared with their young counterparts (odds ratio [OR], 1.56; 95% CI, 1.40-1.75), whereas CEA had equivalent cerebrovascular outcomes in old and young age groups (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99). Carotid stenting had similar peri-interventional mortality risks in old and young patients (OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.72-1.03), whereas CEA was associated with heightened mortality in elderly patients (OR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.47-1.77). The incidence of myocardial infarction was increased in patients of advanced age in both CEA and CAS (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.57-1.72 and OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.16-1.45, respectively). Meta-regression analyses revealed a significant effect of publication date on peri-interventional stroke (P = .003) and mortality (P < .001) in CAS. Age should be considered when planning a carotid intervention. Carotid stenting has an increased risk of adverse cerebrovascular events in elderly patients but mortality equivalent to younger patients. Carotid endarterectomy is associated with similar neurologic outcomes in elderly and young patients, at the expense of increased mortality.

A Practical Guide to Conducting a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Health State Utility Values.

PubMed

Petrou, Stavros; Kwon, Joseph; Madan, Jason

2018-05-10

Economic analysts are increasingly likely to rely on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of health state utility values to inform the parameter inputs of decision-analytic modelling-based economic evaluations. Beyond the context of economic evaluation, evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of health state utility values can be used to inform broader health policy decisions. This paper provides practical guidance on how to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of health state utility values. The paper outlines a number of stages in conducting a systematic review, including identifying the appropriate evidence, study selection, data extraction and presentation, and quality and relevance assessment. The paper outlines three broad approaches that can be used to synthesise multiple estimates of health utilities for a given health state or condition, namely fixed-effect meta-analysis, random-effects meta-analysis and mixed-effects meta-regression. Each approach is illustrated by a synthesis of utility values for a hypothetical decision problem, and software code is provided. The paper highlights a number of methodological issues pertinent to the conduct of meta-analysis or meta-regression. These include the importance of limiting synthesis to 'comparable' utility estimates, for example those derived using common utility measurement approaches and sources of valuation; the effects of reliance on limited or poorly reported published data from primary utility assessment studies; the use of aggregate outcomes within analyses; approaches to generating measures of uncertainty; handling of median utility values; challenges surrounding the disentanglement of utility estimates collected serially within the context of prospective observational studies or prospective randomised trials; challenges surrounding the disentanglement of intervention effects; and approaches to measuring model validity. Areas of methodological debate and avenues for future research are highlighted.

A framework for longitudinal data analysis via shape regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fishbaugh, James; Durrleman, Stanley; Piven, Joseph; Gerig, Guido

2012-02-01

Traditional longitudinal analysis begins by extracting desired clinical measurements, such as volume or head circumference, from discrete imaging data. Typically, the continuous evolution of a scalar measurement is estimated by choosing a 1D regression model, such as kernel regression or fitting a polynomial of fixed degree. This type of analysis not only leads to separate models for each measurement, but there is no clear anatomical or biological interpretation to aid in the selection of the appropriate paradigm. In this paper, we propose a consistent framework for the analysis of longitudinal data by estimating the continuous evolution of shape over time as twice differentiable flows of deformations. In contrast to 1D regression models, one model is chosen to realistically capture the growth of anatomical structures. From the continuous evolution of shape, we can simply extract any clinical measurements of interest. We demonstrate on real anatomical surfaces that volume extracted from a continuous shape evolution is consistent with a 1D regression performed on the discrete measurements. We further show how the visualization of shape progression can aid in the search for significant measurements. Finally, we present an example on a shape complex of the brain (left hemisphere, right hemisphere, cerebellum) that demonstrates a potential clinical application for our framework.

Physiologic Growth Hormone-Replacement Therapy and Craniopharyngioma Recurrence in Pediatric Patients: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Alotaibi, Nawaf M; Noormohamed, Nadia; Cote, David J; Alharthi, Salman; Doucette, Joanne; Zaidi, Hasan A; Mekary, Rania A; Smith, Timothy R

2018-01-01

A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to examine the effect of growth hormone-replacement therapy (GHRT) on the recurrence of craniopharyngioma in children. PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched through April 2017 for studies that evaluated the effect of GHRT on the recurrence of pediatric craniopharyngioma. Pooled effect estimates were calculated with fixed- and random-effects models. Ten studies (n = 3487 patients) met all inclusion criteria, including 2 retrospective cohorts and 8 case series. Overall, 3436 pediatric patients were treated with GHRT after surgery and 51 were not. Using the fixed effect model, we found that the overall craniopharyngioma recurrence rate was lower among children who were treated by GHRT (10.9%; 95% confidence interval 9.80%-12.1%; I 2  = 89.1%; P for heterogeneity <0.01; n = 10 groups) compared with those who were not (35.2%; 95% confidence interval 23.1%-49.6%; I 2  = 61.7%; P for heterogeneity = 0.11; n = 3); the P value comparing the 2 groups was <0.01. Among patients who were treated with GHRT, subgroup analysis revealed that there was a greater prevalence of craniopharyngioma recurrence among studies conducted outside the United States (P < 0.01), single-center studies (P < 0.01), lower impact factor studies (P = 0.03), or studies with a lower quality rating (P = 0.01). Using the random-effects model, we found that the results were not materially different except for when stratifying by GHRT, impact factor, or study quality; this led to nonsignificant differences. Both Begg's rank correlation test (P = 0.7) and Egger's linear regression test (P = 0.06) indicated no publication bias. This meta-analysis demonstrated a lower recurrence rate of craniopharyngioma among children treated with GHRT than those who were not. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Medical expenditure and unmet need of the pre-elderly and the elderly according to job status in Korea: Are the elderly indeed most vulnerable?

PubMed Central

Lee, Hwa-Young; Kondo, Naoki

2018-01-01

Increase in the elderly population and early retirement imposes immense economic burden on societies. Previous studies on the association between medical expenditure and working status in the elderly population have not adequately addressed reverse causality problem. In addition, the pre-elderly group has hardly been discussed in this regard. This study assessed possible causal association between employment status and medical expenditure as well as employment status and medical unmet needs in a representative sample of the Korean elderly (aged≧65) and the pre-elderly (aged ≧50 and < 65) adults from the Korea Health Panel Data (KHP). Dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation was employed for the analysis of medical expenditure to address reverse causality, and fixed effect panel logistic regression was used for the analysis of unmet need. The results showed no significant association between job status and medical expenditure in the elderly, but a negative and significant influence on the level of medical expenditure in the pre-elderly. Unemployment was a significant determinant of lowering unmet need from lack of time while it was not associated with unmet need from financial burden in the fixed-effect panel model for both the elderly and pre-elderly groups. The pre-elderly adults were more likely to reduce necessary health service utilization due to unemployment compared to the elderly group because there is no proper financial safety net for the pre-elderly, which may cause non-adherence to treatment and therefore lead to negative health effects. The policy dialogue on safety net currently centers only on the elderly, but should be extended to the pre-elderly population. PMID:29570736

Relationship between recycling rate and air pollution: Waste management in the state of Massachusetts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giovanis, Eleftherios, E-mail: giovanis95@gmail.com

Highlights: • This study examines the relationship between recycling rate of solid waste and air pollution. • Fixed effects Stochastic Frontier Analysis model with panel data are employed. • The case study is a waste municipality survey in the state of Massachusetts during 2009–2012. • The findings support that a negative relationship between air pollution and recycling. - Abstract: This study examines the relationship between recycling rate of solid waste and air pollution using data from a waste municipality survey in the state of Massachusetts during the period 2009–2012. Two econometric approaches are applied. The first approach is a fixedmore » effects model, while the second is a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) with fixed effects model. The advantage of the first approach is the ability of controlling for stable time invariant characteristics of the municipalities, thereby eliminating potentially large sources of bias. The second approach is applied in order to estimate the technical efficiency and rank of each municipality accordingly. The regressions control for various demographic, economic and recycling services, such as income per capita, population density, unemployment, trash services, Pay-as-you-throw (PAYT) program and meteorological data. The findings support that a negative relationship between particulate particles in the air 2.5 μm or less in size (PM{sub 2.5}) and recycling rate is presented. In addition, the pollution is increased with increases on income per capita up to $23,000–$26,000, while after this point income contributes positively on air quality. Finally, based on the efficiency derived by the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model, the municipalities which provide both drop off and curbside services for trash, food and yard waste and the PAYT program present better performance regarding the air quality.« less

Reorganization increases long-term sickness absence at all levels of hospital staff: panel data analysis of employees of Norwegian public hospitals.

PubMed

Ingelsrud, Mari H

2014-09-19

The Norwegian specialist health service has undergone many processes of reorganization during the last three decades. Changes are mainly initiated to increase the efficiency and quality of health care serving an ageing population under the condition of a diminishing labour supply. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of reorganization on long-term sickness absence among different levels of hospital staff. The study draws on panel data on employees of Norwegian public hospitals in 2005 and 2007 (N = 106,715). National register data on individual employees' days of medically certified long-term (>16 days) sickness absence were linked with survey measures of actual reorganization executed at each hospital in each year. The surveys, answered by hospital administration staff, measured five types of reorganization: merging units, splitting up units, creating new units, shutting down units and reallocation of employees. The variation in sickness absence days was analysed using random and fixed effects Poisson regression with level of reorganization as the main explanatory variable. The fixed effects analysis shows that increasing the degree of organizational change at a hospital from a low to a moderate or high degree leads to an increase in the number of days of long-term sickness absence of respectively 9% (95% CI: 1.03-1.15) and 8% (95% CI: 1.02-1.15). There are few significant differences between employees in different education categories. Only physicians have a significantly higher relative increase in days of long-term sickness absence than the control group with lower tertiary education. Increased long-term sickness absence is a risk following reorganization. This risk affects all levels of hospital staff.

Resonant frequency analysis of Timoshenko nanowires with surface stress for different boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Qilu; Lilley, Carmen M.

2012-10-01

The influence of both surface and shear effects on the resonant frequency of nanowires (NWs) was studied by incorporating the Young-Laplace equation with the Timoshenko beam theory. Face-centered-cubic metal NWs were studied. A dimensional analysis of the resonant frequencies for fixed-fixed gold (100) NWs were compared to molecular dynamic simulations. Silver NWs with diameters from 10 nm-500 nm were modeled as a cantilever, simply supported and fixed-fixed system for aspect ratios from 2.5-20 to identify the shear, surface, and size effects on the resonant frequencies. The shear effect was found to have a larger significance than surface effects when the aspect ratios were small (i.e., <5) regardless of size for the diameters modeled. Finally, as the aspect ratio grows, the surface effect becomes significant for the smaller diameter NWs.

A primer for biomedical scientists on how to execute model II linear regression analysis.

PubMed

Ludbrook, John

2012-04-01

1. There are two very different ways of executing linear regression analysis. One is Model I, when the x-values are fixed by the experimenter. The other is Model II, in which the x-values are free to vary and are subject to error. 2. I have received numerous complaints from biomedical scientists that they have great difficulty in executing Model II linear regression analysis. This may explain the results of a Google Scholar search, which showed that the authors of articles in journals of physiology, pharmacology and biochemistry rarely use Model II regression analysis. 3. I repeat my previous arguments in favour of using least products linear regression analysis for Model II regressions. I review three methods for executing ordinary least products (OLP) and weighted least products (WLP) regression analysis: (i) scientific calculator and/or computer spreadsheet; (ii) specific purpose computer programs; and (iii) general purpose computer programs. 4. Using a scientific calculator and/or computer spreadsheet, it is easy to obtain correct values for OLP slope and intercept, but the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) are inaccurate. 5. Using specific purpose computer programs, the freeware computer program smatr gives the correct OLP regression coefficients and obtains 95% CI by bootstrapping. In addition, smatr can be used to compare the slopes of OLP lines. 6. When using general purpose computer programs, I recommend the commercial programs systat and Statistica for those who regularly undertake linear regression analysis and I give step-by-step instructions in the Supplementary Information as to how to use loss functions. © 2011 The Author. Clinical and Experimental Pharmacology and Physiology. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Adult obesity: panel study from native Amazonians.

PubMed

Zeng, Wu; Eisenberg, Dan T A; Jovel, Karla Rubio; Undurraga, Eduardo A; Nyberg, Colleen; Tanner, Susan; Reyes-García, Victoria; Leonard, William R; Castaño, Juliana; Huanca, Tomás; McDade, Thomas W; Godoy, Ricardo

2013-03-01

This paper examines three morphological indicators measuring obesity among a native Amazonian population of foragers-farmers in Bolivia (Tsimane') and estimates the associations between them and standard covariates of obesity (e.g., socioeconomic status [SES]). We collected annual data from 350 non-pregnant women and 385 men ≥20 years of age from all 311 households in 13 villages during five consecutive years (2002-2006). We used three indicators to measure obesity: body-mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and body fat using bioelectrical impedance analysis (BF-BIA). We ran separate individual random-effect panel multiple regressions for women and men with wealth, acculturation, health, and household food availability as key covariates, and controlled for village and year fixed effects and village×year interaction effects. Although BMI increases by a statistically significant annual growth rate of 0.64% among women and 0.37% among men over the five years, the increase does not yield significant biological meanings. Neither do we find consistent and biologically meaningful covariates associated with adult obesity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does residential mobility improve educational outcomes? Evidence from the Netherlands.

PubMed

Haelermans, Carla; De Witte, Kristof

2015-07-01

This paper explores the impact of residential mobility on educational outcomes. By considering a large Dutch city with substantial internal residential mobility, we examine how residential mobility influences the decision of students to drop out of school. The paper exploits a rich administrative dataset with extensive information on educational, individual, family, housing and moving characteristics of students. It combines a matching design with a multivariate regression analysis, such that the evaluation draws on a well-comparable control group for the treated students. Accounting for individual, family, educational, neighborhood and housing characteristics, as well as for school and year fixed effects, we observe that residential mobility increases the probability of school dropout in the first few years after moving. The estimated effect changes, however, to a lower risk of early school leaving after an initial period, and then changes again to a higher risk after 6years. This effect remains, regardless the level of education the students attended, or whether the student moves to a better or a worse neighborhood. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Medical malpractice reform and employer-sponsored health insurance premiums.

PubMed

Morrisey, Michael A; Kilgore, Meredith L; Nelson, Leonard Jack

2008-12-01

Tort reform may affect health insurance premiums both by reducing medical malpractice premiums and by reducing the extent of defensive medicine. The objective of this study is to estimate the effects of noneconomic damage caps on the premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance. Employer premium data and plan/establishment characteristics were obtained from the 1999 through 2004 Kaiser/HRET Employer Health Insurance Surveys. Damage caps were obtained and dated based on state annotated codes, statutes, and judicial decisions. Fixed effects regression models were run to estimate the effects of the size of inflation-adjusted damage caps on the weighted average single premiums. State tort reform laws were identified using Westlaw, LEXIS, and statutory compilations. Legislative repeal and amendment of statutes and court decisions resulting in the overturning or repealing state statutes were also identified using LEXIS. Using a variety of empirical specifications, there was no statistically significant evidence that noneconomic damage caps exerted any meaningful influence on the cost of employer-sponsored health insurance. The findings suggest that tort reforms have not translated into insurance savings.

The interplay of parental monitoring and socioeconomic status in predicting minor delinquency between and within adolescents.

PubMed

Rekker, Roderik; Keijsers, Loes; Branje, Susan; Koot, Hans; Meeus, Wim

2017-08-01

This six-wave multi-informant longitudinal study on Dutch adolescents (N = 824; age 12-18) examined the interplay of socioeconomic status with parental monitoring in predicting minor delinquency. Fixed-effects negative binomial regression analyses revealed that this interplay is different within adolescents across time than between adolescents. Between individuals, parental solicitation and control were not significantly associated with delinquency after controlling for SES: Adolescents whose parents exercised more monitoring did not offend less than others. Within individuals, higher levels of parental control were unexpectedly associated with more delinquency, but this relation was dependent on SES: Low-SES adolescents, but not high-SES adolescents, offended more during periods in which their parents exercised more control than during other periods with less control. In contrast to earlier work, this finding suggests that monitoring could be least effective when needed most. Low-SES parents might not use monitoring effectively and become overcontrolling when their child goes astray. Copyright © 2017 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of motorcycle helmet type, components and fixation status on facial injury in Klang Valley, Malaysia: a case control study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The effectiveness of helmets in reducing the risk of severe head injury in motorcyclists who were involved in a crash is well established. There is limited evidence however, regarding the extent to which helmets protect riders from facial injuries. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of helmet type, components and fixation status on the risk of facial injuries among Malaysian motorcyclists. Method 755 injured motorcyclists were recruited over a 12-month period in 2010–2011 in southern Klang Valley, Malaysia in this case control study. Of the 755 injured motorcyclists, 391participants (51.8%) sustained facial injuries (cases) while 364 (48.2%) participants were without facial injury (control). The outcomes of interest were facial injury and location of facial injury (i.e. upper, middle and lower face injuries). A binary logistic regression was conducted to examine the association between helmet characteristics and the outcomes, taking into account potential confounders such as age, riding position, alcohol and illicit substance use, type of colliding vehicle and type of collision. Helmet fixation was defined as the position of the helmet during the crash whether it was still secured on the head or had been dislodged. Results Helmet fixation was shown to have a greater effect on facial injury outcome than helmet type. Increased odds of adverse outcome was observed for the non-fixed helmet compared to the fixed helmet with adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.10 (95% CI 1.41- 3.13) for facial injury; AOR = 6.64 (95% CI 3.71-11.91) for upper face injury; AOR = 5.36 (95% CI 3.05-9.44) for middle face injury; and AOR = 2.00 (95% CI 1.22-3.26) for lower face injury. Motorcyclists with visor damage were shown with AOR = 5.48 (95% CI 1.46-20.57) to have facial injuries compared to those with an undamaged visor. Conclusions A helmet of any type that is properly worn and remains fixed on the head throughout a crash will provide some form of protection against facial injury. Visor damage is a significant contributing factor for facial injury. These findings are discussed with reference to implications for policy and initiatives addressing helmet use and wearing behaviors. PMID:25086638

Comparing the Income Elasticity of Health Spending in Middle-Income and High-Income Countries: The Role of Financial Protection

PubMed Central

Vargas Bustamante, Arturo; Shimoga, Sandhya V.

2018-01-01

Background: As middle-income countries become more affluent, economically sophisticated and productive, health expenditure patterns are likely to change. Other socio-demographic and political changes that accompany rapid economic growth are also likely to influence health spending and financial protection. Methods: This study investigates the relationship between growth on per-capita healthcare expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP) in a group of 27 large middle-income economies and compares findings with those of 24 high-income economies from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) group. This comparison uses national accounts data from 1995-2014. We hypothesize that the aggregated income elasticity of health expenditure in middle-income countries would be less than one (meaning healthcare is a normal good). An initial exploratory analysis tests between fixed-effects and random-effects model specifications. A fixed-effects model with time-fixed effects is implemented to assess the relationship between the two measures. Unit root, Hausman and serial correlation tests are conducted to determine model fit. Additional explanatory variables are introduced in different model specifications to test the robustness of our regression results. We include the out-of-pocket (OOP) share of health spending in each model to study the potential role of financial protection in our sample of high- and middle-income countries. The first-difference of study variables is implemented to address non-stationarity and cointegration properties. Results: The elasticity of per-capita health expenditure and GDP growth is positive and statistically significant among sampled middle-income countries (51 per unit-growth in GDP) and high-income countries (50 per unit-growth in GDP). In contrast with previous research that has found that income elasticity of health spending in middle-income countries is larger than in high-income countries, our findings show that elasticity estimates can change if different criteria are used to assemble a more homogenous group of middle-income countries. Financial protection differences between middle- and high-income countries, however, are not associated with their respective income elasticity of health spending. Conclusion: The study findings show that in spite of the rapid economic growth experienced by the sampled middleincome countries, the aggregated income elasticity of health expenditure in them is less than one, and equals that of high-income countries. PMID:29524954

Analysis of Low Bidding and Change Order Rates for Navy Facilities Construction Contracts.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

examine his motives and strategies prior to bidding. Several measures of " level cf competitiveness" are introduced from bidding theory literature that...bidders of fixed-price Government construction contracts have on contract prices when the level FORM, 1473 EDITION OF INOV 6 o IS OBSOLETE S N 0 102...conventional measures of the . level of competition intensity are applied in regression and variance analyses. en, z e ., . , 144 , UNCLASSIFIED 2 SgCURITlY

An Event-Triggered Machine Learning Approach for Accelerometer-Based Fall Detection.

PubMed

Putra, I Putu Edy Suardiyana; Brusey, James; Gaura, Elena; Vesilo, Rein

2017-12-22

The fixed-size non-overlapping sliding window (FNSW) and fixed-size overlapping sliding window (FOSW) approaches are the most commonly used data-segmentation techniques in machine learning-based fall detection using accelerometer sensors. However, these techniques do not segment by fall stages (pre-impact, impact, and post-impact) and thus useful information is lost, which may reduce the detection rate of the classifier. Aligning the segment with the fall stage is difficult, as the segment size varies. We propose an event-triggered machine learning (EvenT-ML) approach that aligns each fall stage so that the characteristic features of the fall stages are more easily recognized. To evaluate our approach, two publicly accessible datasets were used. Classification and regression tree (CART), k -nearest neighbor ( k -NN), logistic regression (LR), and the support vector machine (SVM) were used to train the classifiers. EvenT-ML gives classifier F-scores of 98% for a chest-worn sensor and 92% for a waist-worn sensor, and significantly reduces the computational cost compared with the FNSW- and FOSW-based approaches, with reductions of up to 8-fold and 78-fold, respectively. EvenT-ML achieves a significantly better F-score than existing fall detection approaches. These results indicate that aligning feature segments with fall stages significantly increases the detection rate and reduces the computational cost.

Does 'right to work' imperil the right to health? The effect of labour unions on workplace fatalities.

PubMed

Zoorob, Michael

2018-06-13

Economic policies can have unintended consequences on population health. In recent years, many states in the USA have passed 'right to work' (RTW) laws which weaken labour unions. The effect of these laws on occupational health remains unexplored. This study fills this gap by analysing the effect of RTW on occupational fatalities through its effect on unionisation. Two-way fixed effects regression models are used to estimate the effect of unionisation on occupational mortality per 100 000 workers, controlling for state policy liberalism and workforce composition over the period 1992-2016. In the final specification, RTW laws are used as an instrument for unionisation to recover causal effects. The Local Average Treatment Effect of a 1% decline in unionisation attributable to RTW is about a 5% increase in the rate of occupational fatalities. In total, RTW laws have led to a 14.2% increase in occupational mortality through decreased unionisation. These findings illustrate and quantify the protective effect of unions on workers' safety. Policymakers should consider the potentially deleterious effects of anti-union legislation on occupational health. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Comparing Different Suicide Prevention Measures at Bridges and Buildings: Lessons We Have Learned from a National Survey in Switzerland

PubMed Central

Hemmer, Alexander; Meier, Philipp; Reisch, Thomas

2017-01-01

The goal of the study was to compare the effectiveness of different suicide prevention measures implemented on bridges and other high structures in Switzerland. A national survey identified all jumping hotspots that have been secured in Switzerland; of the 15 that could be included in this study, 11 were secured by vertical barriers and 4 were secured by low-hanging horizontal safety nets. The study made an overall and individual pre-post analysis by using Mantel-Haenszel Tests, regression methods and calculating rate ratios. Barriers and safety nets were both effective, with mean suicide reduction of 68.7% (barriers) and 77.1% (safety nets), respectively. Measures that do not secure the whole hotspot and still allow jumps of 15 meters or more were less effective. Further, the analyses revealed that barriers of at least 2.3 m in height and safety-nets fixed significantly below pedestrian level deterred suicidal jumps. Secured bridgeheads and inbound angle barriers seemed to enhance the effectiveness of the measure. Findings can help to plan and improve the effectiveness of future suicide prevention measures on high structures. PMID:28060950

Economic effect of restaurant smoking restrictions on restaurant business in Massachusetts, 1992 to 1998.

PubMed

Bartosch, William J; Pope, G C

2002-06-01

To determine if restaurant business declines or improves after the implementation of restrictive restaurant smoking policies. Analysis used a pre/post-quasi-experimental design that compared town meals tax receipts before and after the imposition of highly restrictive restaurant smoking policies in adopting versus non-adopting communities. The effect of restaurant smoking policies was estimated using a fixed effects regression model, entering a panel of 84 months of data for the 239 towns in the study. A separate model estimated the effect of restaurant smoking policies on establishments that served alcohol. Change in the trend in meals tax revenue (adjusted for population) following the implementation of highly restrictive restaurant smoking policies. The local adoption of restrictive restaurant smoking policies did not lead to a measurable deviation from the strong positive trend in revenue between 1992 and 1998 that restaurants in Massachusetts experienced. Controlling for other less restrictive restaurant smoking policies did not change this finding. Similar results were found for only those establishments that served alcoholic beverages. Highly restrictive restaurant smoking policies do not have a significant effect on a community's level of meal receipts, indicating that claims of community wide restaurant business decline under such policies are unwarranted.

Causal effects of retirement timing on subjective physical and emotional health.

PubMed

Calvo, Esteban; Sarkisian, Natalia; Tamborini, Christopher R

2013-01-01

This article explores the effects of the timing of retirement on subjective physical and emotional health. Using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we test 4 theory-based hypotheses about these effects-that retirements maximize health when they happen earlier, later, anytime, or on time. We employ fixed and random effects regression models with instrumental variables to estimate the short- and long-term causal effects of retirement timing on self-reported health and depressive symptoms. Early retirements--those occurring prior to traditional and legal retirement age--dampen health. Workers who begin their retirement transition before cultural and institutional timetables experience the worst health outcomes; this finding offers partial support to the psychosocial-materialist approach that emphasizes the benefits of retiring later. Continued employment after traditionally expected retirement age, however, offers no health benefits. In combination, these findings offer some support for the cultural-institutional approach but suggest that we need to modify our understanding of how cultural-institutional forces operate. Retiring too early can be problematic but no disadvantages are associated with late retirements. Raising the retirement age, therefore, could potentially reduce subjective health of retirees by expanding the group of those whose retirements would be considered early.

The Politics of Hope and Despair: The Effect of Presidential Election Outcomes on Suicide Rates*

PubMed Central

Classen, Timothy J.; Dunn, Richard A.

2010-01-01

Objectives This article examines the effect of election outcomes on suicide rates by combining the theory of social integration developed by Durkheim with the models of rational choice used in economics. Methods Theory predicts that states with a greater percentage of residents who supported the losing candidate would tend to exhibit a relative increase in suicide rates. However, being around others who also supported the losing candidate may indicate a greater degree of social integration at the local level, thereby lowering relative suicide rates. We therefore use fixed-effects regression of state suicide rates from 1981 to 2005 on state election outcomes during presidential elections to determine which effect is stronger. Results We find that the local effect of social integration is dominant. The suicide rate when a state supports the losing candidate will tend to be lower than if the state had supported the winning candidate—4.6 percent lower for males and 5.3 percent lower for females. Conclusion Social integration works at many levels; it not only affects suicide risk directly, but can mediate other shocks that influence suicide risk. PMID:20645463

Navy Shipbuilding: Need to Document Rationale for the Use of Fixed-Price Incentive Contracts and Study Effectiveness of Added Incentives

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

NAVY SHIPBUILDING Need to Document Rationale for the Use of Fixed-Price Incentive Contracts and Study Effectiveness of Added...Use of Fixed-Price Incentive Contracts and Study Effectiveness of Added Incentives What GAO Found Over 80 percent of the Navy’s shipbuilding...mackinm@gao.gov. Why GAO Did This Study DOD encourages the use of FPI contracts because they allow for equitable sharing of costs savings and risk

Long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) ownership, use and cost of implementation after a mass distribution campaign in Kasaï Occidental Province, Democratic Republic of Congo.

PubMed

Ntuku, Henry Maggi; Ruckstuhl, Laura; Julo-Réminiac, Jean-Emmanuel; Umesumbu, Solange E; Bokota, Alain; Tshefu, Antoinette Kitoto; Lengeler, Christian

2017-01-09

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) are a highly effective means for preventing malaria infection and reducing associated morbidity and mortality. Mass free distribution campaigns have been shown to rapidly increase LLIN ownership and use. Around 3.5 million LLINs were distributed free of charge in the Kasaï Occidental Province in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in September-October 2014, using two different approaches, a fixed delivery strategy and a door-to-door strategy including hang-up activities. Repeated community-based cross-sectional surveys were conducted 2 months before and six months after the mass distribution. Descriptive statistics were used to measure changes in key malaria household indicators. LLIN ownership and use were compared between delivery strategies. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with LLIN use before and after the mass distribution. A comparative financial cost analysis between the fixed delivery and door-to-door distribution strategies was carried out from the provider's perspective. Household ownership of at least one LLIN increased from 39.4% pre-campaign to 91.4% post-campaign and LLIN universal coverage, measured as the proportion of households with at least one LLIN for every two people increased from 4.1 to 41.1%. Population access to LLIN within the household increased from 22.2 to 80.7%, while overall LLIN use increased from 18.0 to 68.3%. Higher LLIN ownership was achieved with the fixed delivery strategy compared with the door-to-door (92.5% [95% CI 90.2-94.4%] versus 85.2% [95% CI 78.5-90.0%]), while distribution strategy did not have a significant impact on LLIN use (69.6% [95% CI 63.1-75.5%] versus 65.7% [95% CI 52.7-76.7%]). Malaria prevalence among children aged 6-59 months was 44.8% post-campaign. Living in a household with sufficient numbers of LLIN to cover all members was the strongest determinant of LLIN use. The total financial cost per LLIN distributed was 6.58 USD for the fixed distribution strategy and 6.61 USD for the door-to-door strategy. The mass distribution campaign was effective for rapidly increasing LLIN ownership and use. These gains need to be sustained for long-term reduction in malaria burden. The fixed delivery strategy achieved a higher LLIN coverage at lower delivery cost compared with the door-to-door strategy and seems to be a better distribution strategy in the context of the present study setting.

The Type of Payment and Working Conditions.

PubMed

Rhee, Kyung Yong; Kim, Young Sun; Cho, Yoon Ho

2015-12-01

The type of payment is one of the important factors that has an effect on the health of employees, as a basic working condition. In the conventional research field of occupational safety and health, only the physical, chemical, biological, and ergonomic factors are treated as the main hazardous factors. Managerial factors and basic working conditions such as working hours and the type of payment are neglected. This paper aimed to investigate the association of the type of payment and the exposure to the various hazardous factors as an heuristic study. The third Korean Working Conditions Survey (KWCS) by the Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute in 2011 was used for this study. Among the total sample of 50,032 economically active persons, 34,788 employees were considered for analysis. This study examined the relation between the three types of payment such as basic fixed salary and wage, piece rate, and extra payment for bad and dangerous working conditions and exposure to hazardous factors like vibration, noise, temperature, chemical contact, and working at very high speeds. Multivariate regression analysis was used to measure the effect of the type of payment on working hours exposed to hazards. The result showed that the proportion of employees with a basic fixed salary was 94.5%, the proportion with piece rates was 38.6%, and the proportion who received extra payment for hazardous working conditions was 11.7%. The piece rate was associated with exposure to working with tight deadlines and stressful jobs. This study had some limitations because KWCS was a cross-sectional survey.

Organ dose conversion coefficients for tube current modulated CT protocols for an adult population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Wanyi; Tian, Xiaoyu; Sahbaee, Pooyan; Zhang, Yakun; Segars, William Paul; Samei, Ehsan

2016-03-01

In computed tomography (CT), patient-specific organ dose can be estimated using pre-calculated organ dose conversion coefficients (organ dose normalized by CTDIvol, h factor) database, taking into account patient size and scan coverage. The conversion coefficients have been previously estimated for routine body protocol classes, grouped by scan coverage, across an adult population for fixed tube current modulated CT. The coefficients, however, do not include the widely utilized tube current (mA) modulation scheme, which significantly impacts organ dose. This study aims to extend the h factors and the corresponding dose length product (DLP) to create effective dose conversion coefficients (k factor) database incorporating various tube current modulation strengths. Fifty-eight extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantoms were included in this study representing population anatomy variation in clinical practice. Four mA profiles, representing weak to strong mA dependency on body attenuation, were generated for each phantom and protocol class. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate the organ dose. The organ dose and effective dose was further normalized by CTDIvol and DLP to derive the h factors and k factors, respectively. The h factors and k factors were summarized in an exponential regression model as a function of body size. Such a population-based mathematical model can provide a comprehensive organ dose estimation given body size and CTDIvol. The model was integrated into an iPhone app XCATdose version 2, enhancing the 1st version based upon fixed tube current modulation. With the organ dose calculator, physicists, physicians, and patients can conveniently estimate organ dose.

Time vs. Money: A Quantitative Evaluation of Monitoring Frequency vs. Monitoring Duration.

PubMed

McHugh, Thomas E; Kulkarni, Poonam R; Newell, Charles J

2016-09-01

The National Research Council has estimated that over 126,000 contaminated groundwater sites are unlikely to achieve low ug/L clean-up goals in the foreseeable future. At these sites, cost-effective, long-term monitoring schemes are needed in order to understand the long-term changes in contaminant concentrations. Current monitoring optimization schemes rely on site-specific evaluations to optimize groundwater monitoring frequency. However, when using linear regression to estimate the long-term zero-order or first-order contaminant attenuation rate, the effect of monitoring frequency and monitoring duration on the accuracy and confidence for the estimated attenuation rate is not site-specific. For a fixed number of monitoring events, doubling the time between monitoring events (e.g., changing from quarterly monitoring to semi-annual monitoring) will double the accuracy of estimated attenuation rate. For a fixed monitoring frequency (e.g., semi-annual monitoring), increasing the number of monitoring events by 60% will double the accuracy of the estimated attenuation rate. Combining these two factors, doubling the time between monitoring events (e.g., quarterly monitoring to semi-annual monitoring) while decreasing the total number of monitoring events by 38% will result in no change in the accuracy of the estimated attenuation rate. However, the time required to collect this dataset will increase by 25%. Understanding that the trade-off between monitoring frequency and monitoring duration is not site-specific should simplify the process of optimizing groundwater monitoring frequency at contaminated groundwater sites. © 2016 The Authors. Groundwater published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of National Ground Water Association.

Ensemble learning in fixed expansion layer networks for mitigating catastrophic forgetting.

PubMed

Coop, Robert; Mishtal, Aaron; Arel, Itamar

2013-10-01

Catastrophic forgetting is a well-studied attribute of most parameterized supervised learning systems. A variation of this phenomenon, in the context of feedforward neural networks, arises when nonstationary inputs lead to loss of previously learned mappings. The majority of the schemes proposed in the literature for mitigating catastrophic forgetting were not data driven and did not scale well. We introduce the fixed expansion layer (FEL) feedforward neural network, which embeds a sparsely encoding hidden layer to help mitigate forgetting of prior learned representations. In addition, we investigate a novel framework for training ensembles of FEL networks, based on exploiting an information-theoretic measure of diversity between FEL learners, to further control undesired plasticity. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a basic classification task, clearly emphasizing its advantages over existing techniques. The architecture proposed can be enhanced to address a range of computational intelligence tasks, such as regression problems and system control.

Orthodontically induced external apical root resorption in patients treated with fixed appliances vs removable aligners.

PubMed

Iglesias-Linares, Alejandro; Sonnenberg, Boris; Solano, Beatriz; Yañez-Vico, Rosa-Maria; Solano, Enrique; Lindauer, Steven J; Flores-Mir, Carlos

2017-01-01

To determine whether orthodontic treatment with removable aligners vs fixed orthodontic appliances is associated with a different frequency of orthodontically induced external apical root resorption (OIEARR) when genetic, radiographic, and clinical factors are accounted for. Three hundred seventy-two orthodontic patients treated with removable aligners (Invisalign) or fixed appliances were genetically screened for interleukin 1B gene (IL1B) (rs1143634), interleukin 1 receptor antagonist gene (IL1RN) (rs419598), and osteopontin gene (SPP1) (rs9138/rs11730582). Twelve clinical variables, potentially associated with OIEARR, were also considered. Subjects were divided according to the presence of radiographically determined OIEARR (>2 mm). The association between OIEARR and appliance type, and radiographic, clinical and genetic factors, was assessed using backward stepwise conditional logistic regression. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported. Reliability of the methods was adequate. Clinical case complexity (American Board of Orthodontics [ABO] Discrepancy Index) (OR: 1.032; 95% CI: 1.005-1.061; P = .021) and extent of incisor apical displacement in the sagittal plane (OR: 1.478; 95% CI: 1.285-1.699; P = .001) were associated with an increased OIEARR risk. After adjusting for associations between clinical/radiographic/genetic factors, there were no statistically significant differences with respect to OIEARR or type of orthodontic appliance used, whether removable aligners or fixed appliances (OR: 1.662; 95% CI: 0.945-2.924; P = .078). Only subjects homozygous for the T allele of IL1RN (rs419598) were more prone to OIEARR during orthodontic treatment (OR: 3.121; CI: 1.93-5.03; P < .001). A similar OIEARR predisposition was identified using either removable aligners (Invisalign) or fixed appliances.

Increased risk of aseptic loosening for 43,525 rotating-platform vs. fixed-bearing total knee replacements

PubMed Central

Gothesen, Oystein; Lygre, Stein Hakon L; Lorimer, Michelle; Graves, Stephen; Furnes, Ove

2017-01-01

Background and purpose — Given similar functional outcomes with mobile and fixed bearings, a difference in survivorship may favor either. This study investigated the risk of aseptic loosening for the most used subtypes of mobile-bearing rotating-platform knees, in Norway and Australia. Patients and methods — Primary TKRs reported to the Norwegian and Australian joint registries, between 2003 and 2014, were analyzed with aseptic loosening as primary end-point and all revisions as secondary end-point. We hypothesized that no difference would be found in the rate of revision between rotating-platform and the most used fixed-bearing TKRs, or between keeled and non-keeled tibia. Kaplan–Meier estimates and curves, and Cox regression relative risk estimates adjusted for age, sex, and diagnosis were used for comparison. Results — The rotating-platform TKRs had an increased risk of revision for aseptic loosening compared with the most used fixed-bearing knees, in Norway (RR =6, 95% CI 4–8) and Australia (RR =2.1, 95% CI 1.8–2.5). The risk of aseptic loosening as a reason for revision was highest in Norway compared with Australia (RR =1.7, 95% CI 1.4–2.0). The keeled tibial component had the same risk of aseptic loosening as the non-keeled tibia (Australia). Fixation method and subtypes of the tibial components had no impact on the risk of aseptic loosening in these mobile-bearing knees. Interpretation — The rotating-platform TKRs in this study appeared to have a higher risk of revision for aseptic loosening than the most used fixed-bearing TKRs. PMID:28929828

Mobile Versus Fixed Facility: Latinas' Attitudes and Preferences for Obtaining a Mammogram.

PubMed

Scheel, John R; Tillack, Allison A; Mercer, Lauren; Coronado, Gloria D; Beresford, Shirley A A; Molina, Yamile; Thompson, Beti

2018-01-01

Mobile mammographic services have been proposed as a way to reduce Latinas' disproportionate late-stage presentation compared with white women by increasing their access to mammography. The aims of this study were to assess why Latinas may not use mobile mammographic services and to explore their preferences after using these services. Using a mixed-methods approach, a secondary analysis was conducted of baseline survey data (n = 538) from a randomized controlled trial to improve screening mammography rates among Latinas in Washington. Descriptive statistics and bivariate regression were used to characterize mammography location preferences and to test for associations with sociodemographic indices, health care access, and perceived breast cancer risk and beliefs. On the basis of these findings, a qualitative study (n = 18) was used to explore changes in perceptions after using mobile mammographic services. More Latinas preferred obtaining a mammogram at a fixed facility (52.3% [n = 276]) compared with having no preference (46.3% [n = 249]) and preferring mobile mammographic services (1.7% [n = 9]). Concerns about privacy and comfort (15.6% [n = 84]) and about general quality (10.6% [n = 57]) were common reasons for preferring a fixed facility. Those with no history of mammography preferred a fixed facility (P < .05). In the qualitative study, Latinas expressed similar initial concerns but became positive toward the mobile mammographic services after obtaining a mammogram. Although most Latinas preferred obtaining a mammogram at a fixed facility, positive experiences with mobile mammography services changed their attitudes toward them. These findings highlight the need to include community education when using mobile mammographic service to increase screening mammography rates in underserved communities. Copyright © 2017 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors influencing discomfort during anterior ultrasound-guided injection for hip arthrography.

PubMed

Hsu, Yi-Chih; Wu, Yu-Cheng; Kao, Hao-Lun; Pan, Ru-Yu; Lee, Meei-Shyuan; Huang, Guo-Shu

2013-09-01

Although ultrasound (US)-guided injection techniques for magnetic resonance arthrography of the hip have been used with increasing frequency to diagnose internal joint derangements, little is known about patient tolerance, which is relevant information for patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate prospectively the association between possible influencing factors and discomfort felt during the performance of anterior US-guided injection techniques targeting the femoral head-neck junction during hip arthrography. Forty-four consecutive patients (21 women and 23 men; mean age, 41 years) undergoing magnetic resonance hip arthrography were sequentially assigned to receive injection alternating between fixed and freehand US-guided injection. Discomfort was assessed using a visual analog scale and relative ratings. Patient body mass index, extra-articular contrast leakage, the duration of the procedure, the needle advancement distance, and the fixed trajectory of the needle were assessed. Pearson's correlation coefficients and multiple logistic regression analysis were used to determine the association. Puncture was successfully accomplished in all cases, and no relevant complications were reported. The only significant relationships were between discomfort and the time required for needle manipulation (r = 0.8) and fixed US-guided injection (r = 0.6; p < 0.001). Compared with the freehand technique, the fixed technique resulted in significantly less pain and took significantly less time to perform (p < 0.001). The procedure time during needle manipulation in the fixed US-guided injections (4.0 ± 0.9 seconds) was significantly less than that in the freehand US-guided injections (19.4 ± 17.6 seconds; p < 0.001). No significant relationships were found between discomfort and other parameters (r < 0.3, p > 0.05). The procedure time appears to be the most important factor influencing patient discomfort. Fixed US-guided injection is a time-saving technique that alleviates procedure-related discomfort. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Exposure chain of urban air PM 2.5—associations between ambient fixed site, residential outdoor, indoor, workplace and personal exposures in four European cities in the EXPOLIS-study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kousa, Anu; Oglesby, Lucy; Koistinen, Kimmo; Künzli, Nino; Jantunen, Matti

In the EXPOLIS study personal exposures and microenvironment levels of air pollutants from 50-201 urban adult (25-55 yr) participants were measured in six European cities during 1 yr from autumn 1996 to winter 1997-98. This paper presents the associations between the personal PM 2.5 exposures, microenvironment (residential indoor, residential outdoor and workplace indoor) and ambient fixed site concentrations measured in Helsinki (Finland), Basel (Switzerland), Prague (Czech Republic) and Athens (Greece). Considering the whole chain from ambient fixed site to residential outdoor, residential indoor and personal leisure time (non-working hours) exposure, the correlations were highest between personal leisure time exposures and residential indoor concentrations (non-environmental tobacco smoke (ETS): Pearson r=0.72-0.92, ETS included: r=0.82-0.86) except in Athens, where the correlation between residential indoor and outdoor air was highest (non-ETS: r=0.82, ETS included: r=0.68)). Unfortunately, ambient fixed site PM 2.5 concentrations were measured continuously only in Helsinki. Ambient fixed site PM 2.5 concentrations correlated quite well with residential outdoor concentrations ( r=0.90), and also with residential indoor (non-ETS) concentrations ( r=0.80), but concentrations measured at ambient fixed site monitors were poor predictors of personal exposures to PM 2.5. They were particularly poor predictors of personal workday exposures (non-ETS: r=0.34, ETS included: r=0.25), but considerably better for personal leisure time exposures (non-ETS: r=0.69, ETS included: r=0.54). According to log-linear regression models combined from all centres of non-ETS-exposed participants, residential indoor concentrations explained 76% of personal leisure time PM 2.5 exposure variation and workplace indoor concentrations explained 66% of the workday exposure variation.

Inpatient admissions from the ED for adults with injuries: the role of clinical and nonclinical factors.

PubMed

Spector, William D; Limcangco, Rhona; Mutter, Ryan L; Pines, Jesse M; Owens, Pamela

2015-06-01

Inpatient hospital costs represent nearly a third of heath care spending. The proportion of inpatients visits that originate in the emergency department (ED) has been growing, approaching half of all inpatient admissions. Injury is the most common reason for adult ED visits, representing nearly one-quarter of all ED visits. The objective was to explore the association of clinical and nonclinical factors with the decision to admit ED patients with injury. This is a retrospective cohort study of injury-related ED encounters by adults in select states in 2009. We limited the study to ED visits of persons with moderately severe injuries. We used logistic regression to calculate the marginal effects, estimating 4 equations to account for different risk patterns for older and younger adults, and types of injuries. Regression models controlled for comorbidities, injury characteristics, demographic characteristics, and state fixed effects. Injury location, type, and mechanism and comorbidities had large effects on hospitalization rates as expected. We found higher inpatient admission rates by level of trauma center designation and hospital size, but findings differed by age and type of injury. For younger adults, patients with private insurance and patients who traveled more than 30 miles were more likely to be admitted. There is great variation in inpatient admission decisions for moderately injured patients in the ED. Decisions appear to be dominated by clinical factors such as injury characteristics and comorbidities; however, nonclinical factors, such as type of insurance, hospital size, and trauma center designation, also play an important role. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The effect of interference on temporal order memory for random and fixed sequences in nondemented older adults.

PubMed

Tolentino, Jerlyn C; Pirogovsky, Eva; Luu, Trinh; Toner, Chelsea K; Gilbert, Paul E

2012-05-21

Two experiments tested the effect of temporal interference on order memory for fixed and random sequences in young adults and nondemented older adults. The results demonstrate that temporal order memory for fixed and random sequences is impaired in nondemented older adults, particularly when temporal interference is high. However, temporal order memory for fixed sequences is comparable between older adults and young adults when temporal interference is minimized. The results suggest that temporal order memory is less efficient and more susceptible to interference in older adults, possibly due to impaired temporal pattern separation.

The influence of electronic cigarette age purchasing restrictions on adolescent tobacco and marijuana use.

PubMed

Pesko, Michael F; Hughes, Jenna M; Faisal, Fatima S

2016-06-01

In the United States, many states have established minimum legal purchase ages for electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) to ban adolescent purchases, but these policies may also affect other related substance use. We explore whether ENDS are substitutes or complements for cigarettes, cigars, smokeless tobacco, and marijuana among adolescents by using variation in state-level implementation of ENDS age purchasing restrictions. We linked data on ENDS age purchasing restrictions to state- and year-specific rates of adolescent tobacco and marijuana use in 2007-2013 from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System. This data provides a nationally representative sample of adolescents who attend public and private schools. We performed a fixed effect regression analysis exploring the influence of ENDS age purchasing restrictions on outcomes of tobacco use and marijuana use, controlling for state and year fixed characteristics, age-race cohorts, cigarette excise taxes, and cigarette indoor use restrictions. For cigarette use, we separate our results into cigarette use frequency. We found causal evidence that ENDS age purchasing restrictions increased adolescent regular cigarette use by 0.8 percentage points. ENDS age purchasing restrictions were not associated with cigar use, smokeless tobacco use, or marijuana use. We document a concerning trend of cigarette smoking among adolescents increasing when ENDS become more difficult to purchase. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fertility in Gyr Cows (Bos indicus) with Fixed Time Artificial Insemination and Visual Estrus Detection Using a Classification Table

PubMed Central

Ramírez-Iglesia, Lilido Nelson; Roman Bravo, Rafael María; Díaz de Ramirez, Adelina; Torres, Leandro J.

2014-01-01

The aim of this research was to compare two artificial insemination protocols (AIP): hormonal synchronization with fixed time artificial insemination (SC-FTAI) and the use of a table based on visual observation of estrus signs (VO) in order to identify cows in natural or spontaneous estrus being assigned to AI (NSE-IA). Two groups were formed: in the first group 109 cows were assigned to SC-FTAI, in which a commercial protocol is used; the second one included 108 randomly chosen cows, which were assigned to NSE-AI and in this group a modified table was used. Response variable was first service fertility rate (FSF), which was coded 1 for pregnant and 0 for empty. Predictor variables were AIP, postpartum anestrus, daily milk yield, body condition score at AI and calving number. Statistical analyses included association chi-square tests and logistic regression. Results showed an overall 41.94% FSF and a significant association was detected (P < 0.05) between FSF and daily milk yield; pregnancy rates were 42.20% and 41.67% for the SC-FTAI and NSE-IA groups, respectively (P > 0.05). The odds ratio for the effect of AIP was only 1.050, suggesting no differences in FSF between groups. The NSE-AI protocol can enhance both the technique of VO and reproductive efficiency. Further validation of the table is required. PMID:26464929

Intimate Partner Violence and Depression Symptom Severity among South African Women during Pregnancy and Postpartum: Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Tsai, Alexander C.; Tomlinson, Mark; Comulada, W. Scott; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane

2016-01-01

Background Violence against women by intimate partners remains unacceptably common worldwide. The evidence base for the assumed psychological impacts of intimate partner violence (IPV) is derived primarily from studies conducted in high-income countries. A recently published systematic review identified 13 studies linking IPV to incident depression, none of which were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. To address this gap in the literature, we analyzed longitudinal data collected during the course of a 3-y cluster-randomized trial with the aim of estimating the association between IPV and depression symptom severity. Methods and Findings We conducted a secondary analysis of population-based, longitudinal data collected from 1,238 pregnant women during a 3-y cluster-randomized trial of a home visiting intervention in Cape Town, South Africa. Surveys were conducted at baseline, 6 mo, 18 mo, and 36 mo (85% retention). The primary explanatory variable of interest was exposure to four types of physical IPV in the past year. Depression symptom severity was measured using the Xhosa version of the ten-item Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. In a pooled cross-sectional multivariable regression model adjusting for potentially confounding time-fixed and time-varying covariates, lagged IPV intensity had a statistically significant association with depression symptom severity (regression coefficient b = 1.04; 95% CI, 0.61–1.47), with estimates from a quantile regression model showing greater adverse impacts at the upper end of the conditional depression distribution. Fitting a fixed effects regression model accounting for all time-invariant confounding (e.g., history of childhood sexual abuse) yielded similar findings (b = 1.54; 95% CI, 1.13–1.96). The magnitudes of the coefficients indicated that a one–standard-deviation increase in IPV intensity was associated with a 12.3% relative increase in depression symptom severity over the same time period. The most important limitations of our study include exposure assessment that lacked measurement of sexual violence, which could have caused us to underestimate the severity of exposure; the extended latency period in the lagged analysis, which could have caused us to underestimate the strength of the association; and outcome assessment that was limited to the use of a screening instrument for depression symptom severity. Conclusions In this secondary analysis of data from a population-based, 3-y cluster-randomized controlled trial, IPV had a statistically significant association with depression symptom severity. The estimated associations were relatively large in magnitude, consistent with findings from high-income countries, and robust to potential confounding by time-invariant factors. Intensive health sector responses to reduce IPV and improve women’s mental health should be explored. PMID:26784110

DNA Sequences from Formalin-Fixed Nematodes: Integrating Molecular and Morphological Approaches to Taxonomy

PubMed Central

Thomas, W. Kelley; Vida, J. T.; Frisse, Linda M.; Mundo, Manuel; Baldwin, James G.

1997-01-01

To effectively integrate DNA sequence analysis and classical nematode taxonomy, we must be able to obtain DNA sequences from formalin-fixed specimens. Microdissected sections of nematodes were removed from specimens fixed in formalin, using standard protocols and without destroying morphological features. The fixed sections provided sufficient template for multiple polymerase chain reaction-based DNA sequence analyses. PMID:19274156

Impact of a fixed price system on the supply of institutional long-term care: a comparative study of Japanese and German metropolitan areas.

PubMed

Yoshida, Keiko; Kawahara, Kazuo

2014-02-01

The need for institutional long-term care is increasing as the population ages and the pool of informal care givers declines. Care services are often limited when funding is controlled publicly. Fees for Japanese institutional care are publicly fixed and supply is short, particularly in expensive metropolitan areas. Those insured by universal long-term care insurance (LTCI) are faced with geographically inequitable access. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of a fixed price system on the supply of institutional care in terms of equity. The data were derived from official statistics sources in both Japan and Germany, and a self-administered questionnaire was used in Japan in 2011. Cross-sectional multiple regression analyses were used to examine factors affecting bed supply of institutional/residential care in fixed price and free prices systems in Tokyo (Japan), and an individually-bargained price system in North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany). Variables relating to costs and needs were used to test hypotheses of cost-dependency and need-orientation of bed supply in each price system. Analyses were conducted using data both before and after the introduction of LTCI, and the results of each system were qualitatively compared. Total supply of institutional care in Tokyo under fixed pricing was found to be cost-dependent regarding capital costs and scale economies, and negatively related to need. These relationships have however weakened in recent years, possibly caused by political interventions under LTCI. Supply of residential care in Tokyo under free pricing was need-oriented and cost-dependent only regarding scale economies. Supply in North Rhine-Westphalia under individually bargained pricing was cost-independent and not negatively related to need. Findings suggest that publicly funded fixed prices have a negative impact on geographically equitable supply of institutional care. The contrasting results of the non-fixed-price systems for Japanese residential care and German institutional care provide further theoretical supports for this and indicate possible solutions against inequitable supply.

Impact of a fixed price system on the supply of institutional long-term care: a comparative study of Japanese and German metropolitan areas

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The need for institutional long-term care is increasing as the population ages and the pool of informal care givers declines. Care services are often limited when funding is controlled publicly. Fees for Japanese institutional care are publicly fixed and supply is short, particularly in expensive metropolitan areas. Those insured by universal long-term care insurance (LTCI) are faced with geographically inequitable access. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of a fixed price system on the supply of institutional care in terms of equity. Methods The data were derived from official statistics sources in both Japan and Germany, and a self-administered questionnaire was used in Japan in 2011. Cross-sectional multiple regression analyses were used to examine factors affecting bed supply of institutional/residential care in fixed price and free prices systems in Tokyo (Japan), and an individually-bargained price system in North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany). Variables relating to costs and needs were used to test hypotheses of cost-dependency and need-orientation of bed supply in each price system. Analyses were conducted using data both before and after the introduction of LTCI, and the results of each system were qualitatively compared. Results Total supply of institutional care in Tokyo under fixed pricing was found to be cost-dependent regarding capital costs and scale economies, and negatively related to need. These relationships have however weakened in recent years, possibly caused by political interventions under LTCI. Supply of residential care in Tokyo under free pricing was need-oriented and cost-dependent only regarding scale economies. Supply in North Rhine-Westphalia under individually bargained pricing was cost-independent and not negatively related to need. Conclusions Findings suggest that publicly funded fixed prices have a negative impact on geographically equitable supply of institutional care. The contrasting results of the non-fixed-price systems for Japanese residential care and German institutional care provide further theoretical supports for this and indicate possible solutions against inequitable supply. PMID:24485330

Genetic evaluations for growth heat tolerance in Angus cattle.

PubMed

Bradford, H L; Fragomeni, B O; Bertrand, J K; Lourenco, D A L; Misztal, I

2016-10-01

The objectives were to assess the impact of heat stress and to develop a model for genetic evaluation of growth heat tolerance in Angus cattle. The American Angus Association provided weaning weight (WW) and yearling weight (YW) data, and records from the Upper South region were used because of the hot climatic conditions. Heat stress was characterized by a weaning (yearling) heat load function defined as the mean temperature-humidity index (THI) units greater than 75 (70) for 30 (150) d prior to the weigh date. Therefore, a weaning (yearling) heat load of 5 units corresponded to 80 (75) for the corresponding period prior to the weigh date. For all analyses, 82,669 WW and 69,040 YW were used with 3 ancestral generations in the pedigree. Univariate models were a proxy for the Angus growth evaluation, and reaction norms using 2 B-splines for heat load were fit separately for weaning and yearling heat loads. For both models, random effects included direct genetic, maternal genetic, maternal permanent environment (WW only), and residual. Fixed effects included a linear age covariate, age-of-dam class (WW only), and contemporary group for both models and fixed regressions on the B-splines in the reaction norm. Direct genetic correlations for WW were strong for modest heat load differences but decreased to less than 0.50 for large differences. Reranking of proven sires occurred for only WW direct effects for the reaction norms with extreme heat load differences. Conversely, YW results indicated little effect of heat stress on genetic merit. Therefore, weaning heat tolerance was a better candidate for developing selection tools. Maternal heritabilities were consistent across heat loads, and maternal genetic correlations were greater than 0.90 for nearly all heat load combinations. No evidence existed for a genotype × environment interaction for the maternal component of growth. Overall, some evidence exists for phenotypic plasticity for the direct genetic effects of WW, but traditional national cattle evaluations are likely adequately ranking sires for nonextreme environmental conditions.

Does higher income inequality adversely influence infant mortality rates? Reconciling descriptive patterns and recent research findings.

PubMed

Siddiqi, Arjumand; Jones, Marcella K; Erwin, Paul Campbell

2015-04-01

As the struggle continues to explain the relatively high rates of infant mortality (IMR) exhibited in the United States, a renewed emphasis is being placed on the role of possible 'contextual' determinants. Cross-sectional and short time-series studies have found that higher income inequality is associated with higher IMR at the state level. Yet, descriptively, the longer-term trends in income inequality and in IMR seem to call such results into question. To assess whether, over the period 1990-2007, state-level income inequality is associated with state-level IMR; to examine whether the overall effect of income inequality on IMR over this period varies by state; to test whether the association between income inequality and IMR varies across this time period. IMR data--number of deaths per 1000 live births in a given state and year--were obtained from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control Wonder database. Income inequality was measured using the Gini coefficient, which varies from zero (complete equality) to 100 (complete inequality). Covariates included state-level poverty rate, median income, and proportion of high school graduates. Fixed and random effects regressions were conducted to test hypotheses. Fixed effects models suggested that, overall, during the period 1990-2007, income inequality was inversely associated with IMR (β = -0.07, SE (0.01)). Random effects models suggested that when the relationship was allowed to vary at the state-level, it remained inverse (β = -0.05, SE (0.01)). However, an interaction between income inequality and time suggested that, as time increased, the effect of income inequality had an increasingly positive association with total IMR (β = 0.009, SE (0.002)). The influence of state income inequality on IMR is dependent on time, which may proxy for time-dependent aspects of societal context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Underemployment and mental health: comparing fixed-effects and random-effects regression approaches in an Australian working population cohort.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; LaMontagne, Anthony D

2017-05-01

Underemployment occurs when workers are available for more hours of work than offered. It is a serious problem in many Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and particularly in Australia, where it affects about 8% of the employed population. This paper seeks to answer the question: does an increase in underemployment have an influence on mental health? The current paper uses data from an Australian cohort of working people (2001-2013) to investigate both within-person and between-person differences in mental health associated with being underemployed compared with being fully employed. The main exposure was underemployment (not underemployed, underemployed 1-5, 6-10, 11-20 and over 21 hours), and the outcome was the five-item Mental Health Inventory. Results suggest that stepwise declines in mental health are associated with an increasing number of hours underemployed. Results were stronger in the random-effects (11-20 hours =-1.53, 95% CI -2.03 to -1.03, p<0.001; 21 hours and over -2.24, 95% CI -3.06 to -1.43, p<0.001) than fixed-effects models (11-20 hours =-1.11, 95% CI -1.63 to -0.58, p<0.001; 21 hours and over -1.19, 95% CI -2.06 to -0.32, p=0.008). This likely reflects the fact that certain workers were more likely to suffer the negative effects of underemployment than others (eg, women, younger workers, workers in lower-skilled jobs and who were casually employed). We suggest underemployment to be a target of future workplace prevention strategies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Therapeutic effect of Linum usitatissimum (flaxseed/linseed) fixed oil on acute and chronic arthritic models in albino rats.

PubMed

Kaithwas, Gaurav; Majumdar, Dipak K

2010-06-01

The present study was undertaken to assess the activity/anti-inflammatory potential of Linum usitatissimum fixed oil against castor oil-induced diarrhoea, turpentine oil-induced joint oedema, formaldehyde and Complete Freund's Adjuvant (CFA)-induced arthritis in Wistar albino rats. The oil intraperitoneally, significantly inhibited the castor oil-induced diarrhoea and turpentine oil-induced exudative joint oedema in a dose-dependent manner. Significant inhibitory effect of L. usitatissimum fixed oil was observed in formaldehyde-induced proliferative global oedematous arthritis when given intraperitoneally, with significant checking of the serum glutamic oxaloacetic acid transaminase and serum glutamic pyruvic acid transaminase. Further, L. usitatissimum fixed oil showed a significant dose-dependent protective effect against CFA-induced arthritis as well. Secondary lesions produced by CFA due to a delayed hypersensitivity reaction were also reduced in a significant manner. Anti-inflammatory activity of L. usitatissimum fixed oil can be attributed to the presence of alpha linolenic acid (57.38%, an omega-3 fatty acid, 18:3, n-3) having dual inhibitory effect on arachidonate metabolism resulting in suppressed production of proinflammatory n-6 eicosanoids (PGE(2), LTB(4)) and diminished vascular permeability. These observations suggest possible therapeutic potential of L. usitatissimum fixed oil in inflammatory disorders like rheumatoid arthritis.

Seabird nutrient subsidies benefit non-nitrogen fixing trees and alter species composition in South American coastal dry forests.

PubMed

Havik, Gilles; Catenazzi, Alessandro; Holmgren, Milena

2014-01-01

Marine-derived nutrients can increase primary productivity and change species composition of terrestrial plant communities in coastal and riverine ecosystems. We hypothesized that sea nutrient subsidies have a positive effect on nitrogen assimilation and seedling survival of non-nitrogen fixing species, increasing the relative abundance of non-nitrogen fixing species close to seashore. Moreover, we proposed that herbivores can alter the effects of nutrient supplementation by preferentially feeding on high nutrient plants. We studied the effects of nutrient fertilization by seabird guano on tree recruitment and how these effects can be modulated by herbivorous lizards in the coastal dry forests of northwestern Peru. We combined field studies, experiments and stable isotope analysis to study the response of the two most common tree species in these forests, the nitrogen-fixing Prosopis pallida and the non-nitrogen-fixing Capparis scabrida. We did not find differences in herbivore pressure along the sea-inland gradient. We found that the non-nitrogen fixing C. scabrida assimilates marine-derived nitrogen and is more abundant than P. pallida closer to guano-rich soil. We conclude that the input of marine-derived nitrogen through guano deposited by seabirds feeding in the Pacific Ocean affects the two dominant tree species of the coastal dry forests of northern Peru in contrasting ways. The non-nitrogen fixing species, C. scabrida may benefit from sea nutrient subsidies by incorporating guano-derived nitrogen into its foliar tissues, whereas P. pallida, capable of atmospheric fixation, does not.

Seabird Nutrient Subsidies Benefit Non-Nitrogen Fixing Trees and Alter Species Composition in South American Coastal Dry Forests

PubMed Central

Havik, Gilles; Catenazzi, Alessandro; Holmgren, Milena

2014-01-01

Marine-derived nutrients can increase primary productivity and change species composition of terrestrial plant communities in coastal and riverine ecosystems. We hypothesized that sea nutrient subsidies have a positive effect on nitrogen assimilation and seedling survival of non-nitrogen fixing species, increasing the relative abundance of non-nitrogen fixing species close to seashore. Moreover, we proposed that herbivores can alter the effects of nutrient supplementation by preferentially feeding on high nutrient plants. We studied the effects of nutrient fertilization by seabird guano on tree recruitment and how these effects can be modulated by herbivorous lizards in the coastal dry forests of northwestern Peru. We combined field studies, experiments and stable isotope analysis to study the response of the two most common tree species in these forests, the nitrogen-fixing Prosopis pallida and the non-nitrogen-fixing Capparis scabrida. We did not find differences in herbivore pressure along the sea-inland gradient. We found that the non-nitrogen fixing C. scabrida assimilates marine-derived nitrogen and is more abundant than P. pallida closer to guano-rich soil. We conclude that the input of marine-derived nitrogen through guano deposited by seabirds feeding in the Pacific Ocean affects the two dominant tree species of the coastal dry forests of northern Peru in contrasting ways. The non-nitrogen fixing species, C. scabrida may benefit from sea nutrient subsidies by incorporating guano-derived nitrogen into its foliar tissues, whereas P. pallida, capable of atmospheric fixation, does not. PMID:24466065

The relationship between aircraft noise exposure and day-use visitor survey responses in backcountry areas of national parks.

PubMed

Rapoza, Amanda; Sudderth, Erika; Lewis, Kristin

2015-10-01

To evaluate the relationship between aircraft noise exposure and the quality of national park visitor experience, more than 4600 visitor surveys were collected at seven backcountry sites in four U.S. national parks simultaneously with calibrated sound level measurements. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate parameters describing the relationship among visitor responses, aircraft noise dose metrics, and mediator variables. For the regression models, survey responses were converted to three dichotomous variables, representing visitors who did or did not experience slightly or more, moderately or more, or very or more annoyance or interference with natural quiet from aircraft noise. Models with the most predictive power included noise dose metrics of sound exposure level, percent time aircraft were audible, and percentage energy due to helicopters and fixed-wing propeller aircraft. These models also included mediator variables: visitor ratings of the "importance of calmness, peace and tranquility," visitor group composition (adults or both adults and children), first visit to the site, previously taken an air tour, and participation in bird-watching or interpretive talks. The results complement and extend previous research conducted in frontcountry areas and will inform evaluations of air tour noise effects on visitors to national parks and remote wilderness sites.

Robust learning for optimal treatment decision with NP-dimensionality

PubMed Central

Shi, Chengchun; Song, Rui; Lu, Wenbin

2016-01-01

In order to identify important variables that are involved in making optimal treatment decision, Lu, Zhang and Zeng (2013) proposed a penalized least squared regression framework for a fixed number of predictors, which is robust against the misspecification of the conditional mean model. Two problems arise: (i) in a world of explosively big data, effective methods are needed to handle ultra-high dimensional data set, for example, with the dimension of predictors is of the non-polynomial (NP) order of the sample size; (ii) both the propensity score and conditional mean models need to be estimated from data under NP dimensionality. In this paper, we propose a robust procedure for estimating the optimal treatment regime under NP dimensionality. In both steps, penalized regressions are employed with the non-concave penalty function, where the conditional mean model of the response given predictors may be misspecified. The asymptotic properties, such as weak oracle properties, selection consistency and oracle distributions, of the proposed estimators are investigated. In addition, we study the limiting distribution of the estimated value function for the obtained optimal treatment regime. The empirical performance of the proposed estimation method is evaluated by simulations and an application to a depression dataset from the STAR*D study. PMID:28781717

Height conditions salary expectations: Evidence from large-scale data in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiao; Gao, Jian; Liu, Jin-Hu; Zhou, Tao

2018-07-01

Height premium has been revealed by extensive literature, however, evidence from China based on large-scale data remains still lacking. In this paper, we study how height conditions salary expectations by exploring a dataset covering over 140,000 Chinese job seekers. By using graphical and regression models, we find evidence in support of height premium that tall people expect a significantly higher salary in career development. In particular, regression results suggest stronger effects of height premium on female than on male, however, the gender differences decrease as the education level increases and become insignificant after holding all control variables fixed. Further, results from graphical models suggest three promising ways in helping short people: (i) to accumulate more working experiences, since one year seniority can respectively make up about 3 cm and 7 cm shortness for female and male; (ii) to increase the level of education, since one higher academic degree may eliminate all disadvantages that brought by shortness; (iii) to target jobs in regions with a higher level of development. Our work provides a cross-culture supportive evidence of height premium and contributes two novel features to the literature: the compensation story in helping short people, and the focus on salary expectations in isolation from discrimination channels.

A Plate Waste Evaluation of the Farm to School Program.

PubMed

Kropp, Jaclyn D; Abarca-Orozco, Saul J; Israel, Glenn D; Diehl, David C; Galindo-Gonzalez, Sebastian; Headrick, Lauren B; Shelnutt, Karla P

2018-04-01

To investigate the impacts of the Farm to School (FTS) Program on the selection and consumption of fruits and vegetables. Plate waste data were recorded using the visual inspection method before and after implementation of the program. Six elementary schools in Florida: 3 treatment and 3 control schools. A total of 11,262 meal observations of National School Lunch Program (NSLP) participants in grades 1-5. The FTS Program, specifically local procurement of NSLP offerings, began in treatment schools in November, 2015 after the researchers collected preintervention data. The NSLP participants' selection and consumption of fruits and vegetables. Data were analyzed using Mann-Whitney U and proportions tests and difference-in-difference regressions. The NSLP participants at the treatment schools consumed, on average, 0.061 (P = .002) more servings of vegetables and 0.055 (P = .05) more servings of fruit after implementation of the FTS Program. When school-level fixed effects are included, ordinary least squares and tobit regression results indicated that NSLP participants at the treatment schools respectively consumed 0.107 (P < .001) and 0.086 (P < .001) more servings of vegetables, on average, after implementation of the FTS Program. Local procurement positively affected healthy eating. Copyright © 2017 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Capturing the sensitivity of land-use regression models to short-term mobile monitoring campaigns using air pollution micro-sensors.

PubMed

Minet, L; Gehr, R; Hatzopoulou, M

2017-11-01

The development of reliable measures of exposure to traffic-related air pollution is crucial for the evaluation of the health effects of transportation. Land-use regression (LUR) techniques have been widely used for the development of exposure surfaces, however these surfaces are often highly sensitive to the data collected. With the rise of inexpensive air pollution sensors paired with GPS devices, we witness the emergence of mobile data collection protocols. For the same urban area, can we achieve a 'universal' model irrespective of the number of locations and sampling visits? Can we trade the temporal representation of fixed-point sampling for a larger spatial extent afforded by mobile monitoring? This study highlights the challenges of short-term mobile sampling campaigns in terms of the resulting exposure surfaces. A mobile monitoring campaign was conducted in 2015 in Montreal; nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels at 1395 road segments were measured under repeated visits. We developed LUR models based on sub-segments, categorized in terms of the number of visits per road segment. We observe that LUR models were highly sensitive to the number of road segments and to the number of visits per road segment. The associated exposure surfaces were also highly dissimilar. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic evaluation and selection response for growth in meat-type quail through random regression models using B-spline functions and Legendre polynomials.

PubMed

Mota, L F M; Martins, P G M A; Littiere, T O; Abreu, L R A; Silva, M A; Bonafé, C M

2018-04-01

The objective was to estimate (co)variance functions using random regression models (RRM) with Legendre polynomials, B-spline function and multi-trait models aimed at evaluating genetic parameters of growth traits in meat-type quail. A database containing the complete pedigree information of 7000 meat-type quail was utilized. The models included the fixed effects of contemporary group and generation. Direct additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, considered as random, were modeled using B-spline functions considering quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment, and Legendre polynomials for age. Residual variances were grouped in four age classes. Direct additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled using 2 to 4 segments and were modeled by Legendre polynomial with orders of fit ranging from 2 to 4. The model with quadratic B-spline adjustment, using four segments for direct additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, was the most appropriate and parsimonious to describe the covariance structure of the data. The RRM using Legendre polynomials presented an underestimation of the residual variance. Lesser heritability estimates were observed for multi-trait models in comparison with RRM for the evaluated ages. In general, the genetic correlations between measures of BW from hatching to 35 days of age decreased as the range between the evaluated ages increased. Genetic trend for BW was positive and significant along the selection generations. The genetic response to selection for BW in the evaluated ages presented greater values for RRM compared with multi-trait models. In summary, RRM using B-spline functions with four residual variance classes and segments were the best fit for genetic evaluation of growth traits in meat-type quail. In conclusion, RRM should be considered in genetic evaluation of breeding programs.

Effect of daily fluctuations in ambient temperature on reproductive failure traits of Landrace and Yorkshire sows under Thai tropical environmental conditions.

PubMed

Jaichansukkit, Teerapong; Suwanasopee, Thanathip; Koonawootrittriron, Skorn; Tummaruk, Padet; Elzo, Mauricio A

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to determine the effects of daily ranges and maximum ambient temperatures, and other risk factors on reproductive failure of Landrace (L) and Yorkshire (Y) sows under an open-house system in Thailand. Daily ambient temperatures were added to information on 35,579 litters from 5929 L sows and 1057 Y sows from three commercial herds. The average daily temperature ranges (ADT) and the average daily maximum temperatures (PEAK) in three gestation periods from the 35th day of gestation to parturition were classified. The considered reproductive failure traits were the occurrences of mummified fetuses (MM), stillborn piglets (STB), and piglet death losses (PDL) and an indicator trait for number of piglets born alive below the population mean (LBA). A multiple logistic regression model included farrowing herd-year-season (HYS), breed group of sow (BG), parity group (PAR), number of total piglets born (NTB), ADT1, ADT2, ADT3, PEAK1, PEAK2, and PEAK3 as fixed effects, while random effects were animal, repeated observations, and residual. Yorkshire sows had a higher occurrence of LBA than L sows (P = 0.01). The second to fifth parities sows had lower reproductive failures than other parities. The NTB regression coefficients of log-odds were positive (P < 0.01) for all traits. Narrower ranges of ADT3 increased the occurrence of MM, STB, and PDL (P < 0.01), while higher PEAK3 increased the occurrence of MM, STB, PDL, and LBA (P < 0.001). To reduce the risk of reproductive failures, particularly late in gestation, producers would need to closely monitor their temperature management strategies.

Hospitalization event notifications and reductions in readmissions of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries in the Bronx, New York.

PubMed

Unruh, Mark Aaron; Jung, Hye-Young; Kaushal, Rainu; Vest, Joshua R

2017-04-01

Follow-up with a primary care provider after hospital discharge has been associated with a reduced likelihood of readmission. However, primary care providers are frequently unaware of their patients' hospitalizations. Event notification may be an effective tool for reducing readmissions by notifying primary care providers when their patients have been admitted to and discharged from a hospital. We examined the effect of an event notification system on 30-day readmissions in the Bronx, New York. The Bronx has among the highest readmission rates in the country and is a particularly challenging setting to improve care due to the low socioeconomic status of the county and high rates of poor health behaviors among its residents. The study cohort included 2559 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries associated with 14 141 hospital admissions over the period January 2010 through June 2014. Linear regression models with beneficiary-level fixed-effects were used to estimate the impact of event notifications on readmissions by comparing the likelihood of rehospitalization for a beneficiary before and after event notifications were active. The unadjusted 30-day readmission rate when event notifications were not active was 29.5% compared to 26.5% when alerts were active. Regression estimates indicated that active hospitalization alert services were associated with a 2.9 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of readmission (95% confidence interval: -5.5, -0.4). Alerting providers through event notifications may be an effective tool for improving the quality and efficiency of care among high-risk populations. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Health economic analyses of domiciliary dental care and care at fixed clinics for elderly nursing home residents in Sweden.

PubMed

Lundqvist, M; Davidson, T; Ordell, S; Sjöström, O; Zimmerman, M; Sjögren, P

2015-03-01

Dental care for elderly nursing home residents is traditionally provided at fixed dental clinics, but domiciliary dental care is an emerging alternative. Longer life expectancy accompanied with increased morbidity, and hospitalisation or dependence on the care of others will contribute to a risk for rapid deterioration of oral health so alternative methods for delivering oral health care to vulnerable individuals for whom access to fixed dental clinics is an obstacle should be considered. The aim was to analyse health economic consequences of domiciliary dental care for elderly nursing home residents in Sweden, compared to dentistry at a fixed clinic. A review of relevant literature was undertaken complemented by interviews with nursing home staff, officials at county councils, and academic experts in geriatric dentistry. Domiciliary dental care and fixed clinic care were compared in cost analyses and cost-effectiveness analyses. The mean societal cost of domiciliary dental care for elderly nursing home residents was lower than dental care at a fixed clinic, and it was also considered cost-effective. Lower cost of dental care at a fixed dental clinic was only achieved in a scenario where dental care could not be completed in a domiciliary setting. Domiciliary dental care for elderly nursing home residents has a lower societal cost and is cost-effective compared to dental care at fixed clinics. To meet current and predicted need for oral health care in the ageing population alternative methods to deliver dental care should be available.

M5 model tree based predictive modeling of road accidents on non-urban sections of highways in India.

PubMed

Singh, Gyanendra; Sachdeva, S N; Pal, Mahesh

2016-11-01

This work examines the application of M5 model tree and conventionally used fixed/random effect negative binomial (FENB/RENB) regression models for accident prediction on non-urban sections of highway in Haryana (India). Road accident data for a period of 2-6 years on different sections of 8 National and State Highways in Haryana was collected from police records. Data related to road geometry, traffic and road environment related variables was collected through field studies. Total two hundred and twenty two data points were gathered by dividing highways into sections with certain uniform geometric characteristics. For prediction of accident frequencies using fifteen input parameters, two modeling approaches: FENB/RENB regression and M5 model tree were used. Results suggest that both models perform comparably well in terms of correlation coefficient and root mean square error values. M5 model tree provides simple linear equations that are easy to interpret and provide better insight, indicating that this approach can effectively be used as an alternative to RENB approach if the sole purpose is to predict motor vehicle crashes. Sensitivity analysis using M5 model tree also suggests that its results reflect the physical conditions. Both models clearly indicate that to improve safety on Indian highways minor accesses to the highways need to be properly designed and controlled, the service roads to be made functional and dispersion of speeds is to be brought down. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multihospital System Membership and Patient Treatments, Expenditures, and Outcomes

PubMed Central

Madison, Kristin

2004-01-01

Objective To determine the relationship between hospital membership in systems and the treatments, expenditures, and outcomes of patients. Data Sources The Medicare Provider Analysis and Review dataset, for data on Medicare patients admitted to general medical-surgical hospitals between 1985 and 1998 with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI); the American Hospital Association Annual Survey, for data on hospitals. Study Design A multivariate regression analysis. An observation is a fee-for-service Medicare AMI patient admitted to a study hospital. Dependent variables include patient transfers, catheterizations, angioplasties or bypass surgeries, 90-day mortality, and Medicare expenditures. Independent variables include system participation, other admission hospital and patient traits, and hospital and year fixed effects. The five-part system definition incorporates the size and location of the index admission hospital and the size and distance of its partners. Principal Findings While the effects of multihospital system membership on patients are in general limited, patients initially admitted to small rural system hospitals that have big partners within 100 miles experience lower mortality rates than patients initially admitted to independent hospitals. Regression results show that to the extent system hospital patients experience differences in treatments and outcomes relative to patients of independent hospitals, these differences remain even after controlling for the admission hospital's capacity to provide cardiac services. Conclusions Multihospital system participation may affect AMI patient treatment and outcomes through factors other than cardiac service offerings. Additional investigation into the nature of these factors is warranted. PMID:15230926

How to derive biological information from the value of the normalization constant in allometric equations.

PubMed

Kaitaniemi, Pekka

2008-04-09

Allometric equations are widely used in many branches of biological science. The potential information content of the normalization constant b in allometric equations of the form Y = bX(a) has, however, remained largely neglected. To demonstrate the potential for utilizing this information, I generated a large number of artificial datasets that resembled those that are frequently encountered in biological studies, i.e., relatively small samples including measurement error or uncontrolled variation. The value of X was allowed to vary randomly within the limits describing different data ranges, and a was set to a fixed theoretical value. The constant b was set to a range of values describing the effect of a continuous environmental variable. In addition, a normally distributed random error was added to the values of both X and Y. Two different approaches were then used to model the data. The traditional approach estimated both a and b using a regression model, whereas an alternative approach set the exponent a at its theoretical value and only estimated the value of b. Both approaches produced virtually the same model fit with less than 0.3% difference in the coefficient of determination. Only the alternative approach was able to precisely reproduce the effect of the environmental variable, which was largely lost among noise variation when using the traditional approach. The results show how the value of b can be used as a source of valuable biological information if an appropriate regression model is selected.

A Modified LS+AR Model to Improve the Accuracy of the Short-term Polar Motion Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z. W.; Wang, Q. X.; Ding, Y. Q.; Zhang, J. J.; Liu, S. S.

2017-03-01

There are two problems of the LS (Least Squares)+AR (AutoRegressive) model in polar motion forecast: the inner residual value of LS fitting is reasonable, but the residual value of LS extrapolation is poor; and the LS fitting residual sequence is non-linear. It is unsuitable to establish an AR model for the residual sequence to be forecasted, based on the residual sequence before forecast epoch. In this paper, we make solution to those two problems with two steps. First, restrictions are added to the two endpoints of LS fitting data to fix them on the LS fitting curve. Therefore, the fitting values next to the two endpoints are very close to the observation values. Secondly, we select the interpolation residual sequence of an inward LS fitting curve, which has a similar variation trend as the LS extrapolation residual sequence, as the modeling object of AR for the residual forecast. Calculation examples show that this solution can effectively improve the short-term polar motion prediction accuracy by the LS+AR model. In addition, the comparison results of the forecast models of RLS (Robustified Least Squares)+AR, RLS+ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), and LS+ANN (Artificial Neural Network) confirm the feasibility and effectiveness of the solution for the polar motion forecast. The results, especially for the polar motion forecast in the 1-10 days, show that the forecast accuracy of the proposed model can reach the world level.

Estimation of genetic connectedness diagnostics based on prediction errors without the prediction error variance-covariance matrix.

PubMed

Holmes, John B; Dodds, Ken G; Lee, Michael A

2017-03-02

An important issue in genetic evaluation is the comparability of random effects (breeding values), particularly between pairs of animals in different contemporary groups. This is usually referred to as genetic connectedness. While various measures of connectedness have been proposed in the literature, there is general agreement that the most appropriate measure is some function of the prediction error variance-covariance matrix. However, obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix is computationally demanding for large-scale genetic evaluations. Many alternative statistics have been proposed that avoid the computational cost of obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix, such as counts of genetic links between contemporary groups, gene flow matrices, and functions of the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects. In this paper, we show that a correction to the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects will produce the exact prediction error variance-covariance matrix averaged by contemporary group for univariate models in the presence of single or multiple fixed effects and one random effect. We demonstrate the correction for a series of models and show that approximations to the prediction error matrix based solely on the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects are inappropriate in certain circumstances. Our method allows for the calculation of a connectedness measure based on the prediction error variance-covariance matrix by calculating only the variance-covariance matrix of estimated fixed effects. Since the number of fixed effects in genetic evaluation is usually orders of magnitudes smaller than the number of random effect levels, the computational requirements for our method should be reduced.

Effect of Impurities on the Freezing Point of Zinc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jianping; Rudtsch, Steffen; Niu, Yalu; Zhang, Lin; Wang, Wei; Den, Xiaolong

2017-03-01

The knowledge of the liquidus slope of impurities in fixed-point metal defined by the International Temperature Scale of 1990 is important for the estimation of uncertainties and correction of fixed point with the sum of individual estimates method. Great attentions are paid to the effect of ultra-trace impurities on the freezing point of zinc in the National Institute of Metrology. In the present work, the liquidus slopes of Ga-Zn, Ge-Zn were measured with the slim fixed-point cell developed through the doping experiments, and the temperature characteristics of the phase diagram of Fe-Zn were furthermore investigated. A quasi-adiabatic Zn fixed-point cell was developed with the thermometer well surrounded by the crucible with the pure metal, and the temperature uniformity of less than 20 mK in the region where the metal is located was obtained. The previous doping experiment of Pb-Zn with slim fixed-point cell was checked with quasi-adiabatic Zn fixed-point cell, and the result supports the previous liquidus slope measured with the traditional fixed-point realization.

Age-Specific Associations Between Violence Exposure and Past 30-Day Marijuana and Alcohol Use.

PubMed

Goldstick, Jason E; Heinze, Justin E; Stoddard, Sarah A; Cunningham, Rebecca M; Zimmerman, Marc A

2018-04-23

Using data from a cohort study of students at risk for high school dropout, we examined associations between violence exposure and past 30-day alcohol and marijuana use. We used varying-coefficient regression with person-level fixed effects to estimate how those associations changed within-person across ages approximately 14-23. Generally, violence perpetration was most strongly associated with substance use, within-person. Substance use became increasingly associated with both observed violence and violence perpetration during early/middle adolescence; this increase continued longer into development (age 18+) for alcohol use. Across most of the age range studied here, violence victimization was minimally associated with within-person changes in substance use. Results indicate age-specific associations between violence exposure and alcohol and other drug use, which may be useful for informing prevention strategies. © 2018 Society for Research on Adolescence.

Private Investment Purchase and Nursing Home Financial Health

PubMed Central

Cadigan, Rebecca Orfaly; Stevenson, David G; Caudry, Daryl J; Grabowski, David C

2015-01-01

Objective To explore the impact of nursing home acquisition by private investment firms on nursing home costs, revenue, and overall financial health. Data Sources Merged data from the Medicare Cost Reports and the Online Survey, Certification, and Reporting system for the period 1998–2010. Study Design Regression specification incorporating facility and time fixed effects. Principal Findings We found little impact on the financial health of nursing homes following purchase by private investment companies. However, our findings did suggest that private investment firms acquired nursing home chains in good financial health, possibly to derive profit from the company’s real estate holdings. Conclusions Private investment acquired facilities are an important feature of today’s nursing home sector. Although we did not observe a negative impact on the financial health of nursing homes, this development raises important issues about ownership oversight and transparency for the entire nursing home sector. PMID:25104476

Early home literacy and adolescents’ online reading behavior in comparative perspective

PubMed Central

Notten, Natascha; Becker, Birgit

2017-01-01

Online reading behavior can be regarded as a ‘new’ form of cultural capital in today’s digital world. However, it is unclear whether ‘traditional’ mechanisms of cultural and social reproduction are also found in this domain, and whether they manifest uniformly across countries at different stages of development. This article analyzes whether the early home literacy environment has an impact on informational online reading behavior among adolescents and whether this association varies between countries with different levels of digitalization and educational expansion. Data from the 2009 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) were used for the empirical analyses. The results of regression models with country-fixed effects indicate a positive association between literacy activities in early childhood and informational online reading at age 15. This association was quite stable across countries. These findings are discussed in light of cultural and social reproduction theory and digital divide research. PMID:29276306

THE ROLE OF LOCATION IN EVALUATING RACIAL WAGE DISPARITY

PubMed Central

Black, Dan A.; Kolesnikova, Natalia; Sanders, Seth G.; Taylor, Lowell J.

2015-01-01

A standard object of empirical analysis in labor economics is a modified Mincer wage function in which an individual’s log wage is specified to be a function of education, experience, and an indicator variable identifying race. We analyze this approach in a context in which individuals live and work in different locations (and thus face different housing prices and wages). Our model provides a justification for the traditional approach, but with the important caveat that the regression should include location-specific fixed effects. Empirical analyses of men in U.S. labor markets demonstrate that failure to condition on location causes us to (i) overstate the decline in black-white wage disparity over the past 60 years, and (ii) understate racial and ethnic wage gaps that remain after taking into account measured cognitive skill differences that emerge when workers are young. PMID:25798025

CEO Compensation and Hospital Financial Performance

PubMed Central

Reiter, Kristin L.; Sandoval, Guillermo A.; Brown, Adalsteinn D.; Pink, George H.

2010-01-01

Growing interest in pay-for-performance and the level of CEO pay raises questions about the link between performance and compensation in the health sector. This study compares the compensation of non-profit hospital Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) in Ontario, Canada to the three longest reported and most used measures of hospital financial performance. Our sample consisted of 132 CEOs from 92 hospitals between 1999 and 2006. Unbalanced panel data were analyzed using fixed effects regression. Results suggest that CEO compensation was largely unrelated to hospital financial performance. Inflation-adjusted salaries appeared to increase over time independent of hospital performance, and hospital size was positively correlated with CEO compensation. The apparent upward trend in salary despite some declines in financial performance challenges the fundamental assumption underlying this paper, that is, financial performance is likely linked to CEO compensation in Ontario. Further research is needed to understand long-term performance related to compensation incentives. PMID:19605619

Beauty, body size and wages: Evidence from a unique data set.

PubMed

Oreffice, Sonia; Quintana-Domeque, Climent

2016-09-01

We analyze how attractiveness rated at the start of the interview in the German General Social Survey is related to weight, height, and body mass index (BMI), separately by gender and accounting for interviewers' characteristics or fixed effects. We show that height, weight, and BMI all strongly contribute to male and female attractiveness when attractiveness is rated by opposite-sex interviewers, and that anthropometric characteristics are irrelevant to male interviewers when assessing male attractiveness. We also estimate whether, controlling for beauty, body size measures are related to hourly wages. We find that anthropometric attributes play a significant role in wage regressions in addition to attractiveness, showing that body size cannot be dismissed as a simple component of beauty. Our findings are robust to controlling for health status and accounting for selection into working. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The More or the Better? How Sex Contributes to Life Satisfaction.

PubMed

Schmiedeberg, Claudia; Huyer-May, Bernadette; Castiglioni, Laura; Johnson, Matthew D

2017-02-01

Much cross-sectional research documented associations between sexuality and life satisfaction, but very little longitudinal research on the topic has considered whether changes in sexuality and life satisfaction unfold together over time. Using data from 5582 individuals in partnerships surveyed across 5786 intimate relationships (providing 18,712 observations for analysis) during five waves of the German Family Panel (pairfam), this study examined whether intraindividual changes in sexual frequency and satisfaction were associated with corresponding intraindividual changes in life satisfaction. Fixed effects regression modeling results showed that individuals reported a greater increase (decrease) in life satisfaction when they also experienced a more substantial increase (decrease) in sexual frequency and satisfaction. This finding was consistent for men and women. This study contributes to the literature by documenting that naturally occurring increases in sexual frequency and satisfaction over time predicted corresponding increases in life satisfaction.