fixed effects estimation: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for fixed effects estimation

Performance of time-varying predictors in multilevel models under an assumption of fixed or random effects.

PubMed

Baird, Rachel; Maxwell, Scott E

2016-06-01

Time-varying predictors in multilevel models are a useful tool for longitudinal research, whether they are the research variable of interest or they are controlling for variance to allow greater power for other variables. However, standard recommendations to fix the effect of time-varying predictors may make an assumption that is unlikely to hold in reality and may influence results. A simulation study illustrates that treating the time-varying predictor as fixed may allow analyses to converge, but the analyses have poor coverage of the true fixed effect when the time-varying predictor has a random effect in reality. A second simulation study shows that treating the time-varying predictor as random may have poor convergence, except when allowing negative variance estimates. Although negative variance estimates are uninterpretable, results of the simulation show that estimates of the fixed effect of the time-varying predictor are as accurate for these cases as for cases with positive variance estimates, and that treating the time-varying predictor as random and allowing negative variance estimates performs well whether the time-varying predictor is fixed or random in reality. Because of the difficulty of interpreting negative variance estimates, 2 procedures are suggested for selection between fixed-effect and random-effect models: comparing between fixed-effect and constrained random-effect models with a likelihood ratio test or fitting a fixed-effect model when an unconstrained random-effect model produces negative variance estimates. The performance of these 2 procedures is compared. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
Nonparametric estimation and testing of fixed effects panel data models

PubMed Central

Henderson, Daniel J.; Carroll, Raymond J.; Li, Qi

2009-01-01

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating nonparametric panel data models with fixed effects. We introduce an iterative nonparametric kernel estimator. We also extend the estimation method to the case of a semiparametric partially linear fixed effects model. To determine whether a parametric, semiparametric or nonparametric model is appropriate, we propose test statistics to test between the three alternatives in practice. We further propose a test statistic for testing the null hypothesis of random effects against fixed effects in a nonparametric panel data regression model. Simulations are used to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators and the test statistics. PMID:19444335
Neither fixed nor random: weighted least squares meta-analysis.

PubMed

Stanley, T D; Doucouliagos, Hristos

2015-06-15

This study challenges two core conventional meta-analysis methods: fixed effect and random effects. We show how and explain why an unrestricted weighted least squares estimator is superior to conventional random-effects meta-analysis when there is publication (or small-sample) bias and better than a fixed-effect weighted average if there is heterogeneity. Statistical theory and simulations of effect sizes, log odds ratios and regression coefficients demonstrate that this unrestricted weighted least squares estimator provides satisfactory estimates and confidence intervals that are comparable to random effects when there is no publication (or small-sample) bias and identical to fixed-effect meta-analysis when there is no heterogeneity. When there is publication selection bias, the unrestricted weighted least squares approach dominates random effects; when there is excess heterogeneity, it is clearly superior to fixed-effect meta-analysis. In practical applications, an unrestricted weighted least squares weighted average will often provide superior estimates to both conventional fixed and random effects. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Efficacy of a numerical value of a fixed-effect estimator in stochastic frontier analysis as an indicator of hospital production structure.

PubMed

Kawaguchi, Hiroyuki; Hashimoto, Hideki; Matsuda, Shinya

2012-09-22

The casemix-based payment system has been adopted in many countries, although it often needs complementary adjustment taking account of each hospital's unique production structure such as teaching and research duties, and non-profit motives. It has been challenging to numerically evaluate the impact of such structural heterogeneity on production, separately of production inefficiency. The current study adopted stochastic frontier analysis and proposed a method to assess unique components of hospital production structures using a fixed-effect variable. There were two stages of analyses in this study. In the first stage, we estimated the efficiency score from the hospital production function using a true fixed-effect model (TFEM) in stochastic frontier analysis. The use of a TFEM allowed us to differentiate the unobserved heterogeneity of individual hospitals as hospital-specific fixed effects. In the second stage, we regressed the obtained fixed-effect variable for structural components of hospitals to test whether the variable was explicitly related to the characteristics and local disadvantages of the hospitals. In the first analysis, the estimated efficiency score was approximately 0.6. The mean value of the fixed-effect estimator was 0.784, the standard deviation was 0.137, the range was between 0.437 and 1.212. The second-stage regression confirmed that the value of the fixed effect was significantly correlated with advanced technology and local conditions of the sample hospitals. The obtained fixed-effect estimator may reflect hospitals' unique structures of production, considering production inefficiency. The values of fixed-effect estimators can be used as evaluation tools to improve fairness in the reimbursement system for various functions of hospitals based on casemix classification.
Mixed effects versus fixed effects modelling of binary data with inter-subject variability.

PubMed

Murphy, Valda; Dunne, Adrian

2005-04-01

The question of whether or not a mixed effects model is required when modelling binary data with inter-subject variability and within subject correlation was reported in this journal by Yano et al. (J. Pharmacokin. Pharmacodyn. 28:389-412 [2001]). That report used simulation experiments to demonstrate that, under certain circumstances, the use of a fixed effects model produced more accurate estimates of the fixed effect parameters than those produced by a mixed effects model. The Laplace approximation to the likelihood was used when fitting the mixed effects model. This paper repeats one of those simulation experiments, with two binary observations recorded for every subject, and uses both the Laplace and the adaptive Gaussian quadrature approximations to the likelihood when fitting the mixed effects model. The results show that the estimates produced using the Laplace approximation include a small number of extreme outliers. This was not the case when using the adaptive Gaussian quadrature approximation. Further examination of these outliers shows that they arise in situations in which the Laplace approximation seriously overestimates the likelihood in an extreme region of the parameter space. It is also demonstrated that when the number of observations per subject is increased from two to three, the estimates based on the Laplace approximation no longer include any extreme outliers. The root mean squared error is a combination of the bias and the variability of the estimates. Increasing the sample size is known to reduce the variability of an estimator with a consequent reduction in its root mean squared error. The estimates based on the fixed effects model are inherently biased and this bias acts as a lower bound for the root mean squared error of these estimates. Consequently, it might be expected that for data sets with a greater number of subjects the estimates based on the mixed effects model would be more accurate than those based on the fixed effects model. This is borne out by the results of a further simulation experiment with an increased number of subjects in each set of data. The difference in the interpretation of the parameters of the fixed and mixed effects models is discussed. It is demonstrated that the mixed effects model and parameter estimates can be used to estimate the parameters of the fixed effects model but not vice versa.
Comparison of statistical models to estimate parasite growth rate in the induced blood stage malaria model.

PubMed

Wockner, Leesa F; Hoffmann, Isabell; O'Rourke, Peter; McCarthy, James S; Marquart, Louise

2017-08-25

The efficacy of vaccines aimed at inhibiting the growth of malaria parasites in the blood can be assessed by comparing the growth rate of parasitaemia in the blood of subjects treated with a test vaccine compared to controls. In studies using induced blood stage malaria (IBSM), a type of controlled human malaria infection, parasite growth rate has been measured using models with the intercept on the y-axis fixed to the inoculum size. A set of statistical models was evaluated to determine an optimal methodology to estimate parasite growth rate in IBSM studies. Parasite growth rates were estimated using data from 40 subjects published in three IBSM studies. Data was fitted using 12 statistical models: log-linear, sine-wave with the period either fixed to 48 h or not fixed; these models were fitted with the intercept either fixed to the inoculum size or not fixed. All models were fitted by individual, and overall by study using a mixed effects model with a random effect for the individual. Log-linear models and sine-wave models, with the period fixed or not fixed, resulted in similar parasite growth rate estimates (within 0.05 log 10 parasites per mL/day). Average parasite growth rate estimates for models fitted by individual with the intercept fixed to the inoculum size were substantially lower by an average of 0.17 log 10 parasites per mL/day (range 0.06-0.24) compared with non-fixed intercept models. Variability of parasite growth rate estimates across the three studies analysed was substantially higher (3.5 times) for fixed-intercept models compared with non-fixed intercept models. The same tendency was observed in models fitted overall by study. Modelling data by individual or overall by study had minimal effect on parasite growth estimates. The analyses presented in this report confirm that fixing the intercept to the inoculum size influences parasite growth estimates. The most appropriate statistical model to estimate the growth rate of blood-stage parasites in IBSM studies appears to be a log-linear model fitted by individual and with the intercept estimated in the log-linear regression. Future studies should use this model to estimate parasite growth rates.
Model Specifications for Estimating Labor Market Returns to Associate Degrees: How Robust Are Fixed Effects Estimates? A CAPSEE Working Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belfield, Clive; Bailey, Thomas

2017-01-01

Recently, studies have adopted fixed effects modeling to identify the returns to college. This method has the advantage over ordinary least squares estimates in that unobservable, individual-level characteristics that may bias the estimated returns are differenced out. But the method requires extensive longitudinal data and involves complex…
Estimation of genetic connectedness diagnostics based on prediction errors without the prediction error variance-covariance matrix.

PubMed

Holmes, John B; Dodds, Ken G; Lee, Michael A

2017-03-02

An important issue in genetic evaluation is the comparability of random effects (breeding values), particularly between pairs of animals in different contemporary groups. This is usually referred to as genetic connectedness. While various measures of connectedness have been proposed in the literature, there is general agreement that the most appropriate measure is some function of the prediction error variance-covariance matrix. However, obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix is computationally demanding for large-scale genetic evaluations. Many alternative statistics have been proposed that avoid the computational cost of obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix, such as counts of genetic links between contemporary groups, gene flow matrices, and functions of the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects. In this paper, we show that a correction to the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects will produce the exact prediction error variance-covariance matrix averaged by contemporary group for univariate models in the presence of single or multiple fixed effects and one random effect. We demonstrate the correction for a series of models and show that approximations to the prediction error matrix based solely on the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects are inappropriate in certain circumstances. Our method allows for the calculation of a connectedness measure based on the prediction error variance-covariance matrix by calculating only the variance-covariance matrix of estimated fixed effects. Since the number of fixed effects in genetic evaluation is usually orders of magnitudes smaller than the number of random effect levels, the computational requirements for our method should be reduced.
Neither fixed nor random: weighted least squares meta-regression.

PubMed

Stanley, T D; Doucouliagos, Hristos

2017-03-01

Our study revisits and challenges two core conventional meta-regression estimators: the prevalent use of 'mixed-effects' or random-effects meta-regression analysis and the correction of standard errors that defines fixed-effects meta-regression analysis (FE-MRA). We show how and explain why an unrestricted weighted least squares MRA (WLS-MRA) estimator is superior to conventional random-effects (or mixed-effects) meta-regression when there is publication (or small-sample) bias that is as good as FE-MRA in all cases and better than fixed effects in most practical applications. Simulations and statistical theory show that WLS-MRA provides satisfactory estimates of meta-regression coefficients that are practically equivalent to mixed effects or random effects when there is no publication bias. When there is publication selection bias, WLS-MRA always has smaller bias than mixed effects or random effects. In practical applications, an unrestricted WLS meta-regression is likely to give practically equivalent or superior estimates to fixed-effects, random-effects, and mixed-effects meta-regression approaches. However, random-effects meta-regression remains viable and perhaps somewhat preferable if selection for statistical significance (publication bias) can be ruled out and when random, additive normal heterogeneity is known to directly affect the 'true' regression coefficient. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Full Bayes Poisson gamma, Poisson lognormal, and zero inflated random effects models: Comparing the precision of crash frequency estimates.

PubMed

Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

2013-01-01

In recent years, complex statistical modeling approaches have being proposed to handle the unobserved heterogeneity and the excess of zeros frequently found in crash data, including random effects and zero inflated models. This research compares random effects, zero inflated, and zero inflated random effects models using a full Bayes hierarchical approach. The models are compared not just in terms of goodness-of-fit measures but also in terms of precision of posterior crash frequency estimates since the precision of these estimates is vital for ranking of sites for engineering improvement. Fixed-over-time random effects models are also compared to independent-over-time random effects models. For the crash dataset being analyzed, it was found that once the random effects are included in the zero inflated models, the probability of being in the zero state is drastically reduced, and the zero inflated models degenerate to their non zero inflated counterparts. Also by fixing the random effects over time the fit of the models and the precision of the crash frequency estimates are significantly increased. It was found that the rankings of the fixed-over-time random effects models are very consistent among them. In addition, the results show that by fixing the random effects over time, the standard errors of the crash frequency estimates are significantly reduced for the majority of the segments on the top of the ranking. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Extensively Parameterized Mutation-Selection Models Reliably Capture Site-Specific Selective Constraint.

PubMed

Spielman, Stephanie J; Wilke, Claus O

2016-11-01

The mutation-selection model of coding sequence evolution has received renewed attention for its use in estimating site-specific amino acid propensities and selection coefficient distributions. Two computationally tractable mutation-selection inference frameworks have been introduced: One framework employs a fixed-effects, highly parameterized maximum likelihood approach, whereas the other employs a random-effects Bayesian Dirichlet Process approach. While both implementations follow the same model, they appear to make distinct predictions about the distribution of selection coefficients. The fixed-effects framework estimates a large proportion of highly deleterious substitutions, whereas the random-effects framework estimates that all substitutions are either nearly neutral or weakly deleterious. It remains unknown, however, how accurately each method infers evolutionary constraints at individual sites. Indeed, selection coefficient distributions pool all site-specific inferences, thereby obscuring a precise assessment of site-specific estimates. Therefore, in this study, we use a simulation-based strategy to determine how accurately each approach recapitulates the selective constraint at individual sites. We find that the fixed-effects approach, despite its extensive parameterization, consistently and accurately estimates site-specific evolutionary constraint. By contrast, the random-effects Bayesian approach systematically underestimates the strength of natural selection, particularly for slowly evolving sites. We also find that, despite the strong differences between their inferred selection coefficient distributions, the fixed- and random-effects approaches yield surprisingly similar inferences of site-specific selective constraint. We conclude that the fixed-effects mutation-selection framework provides the more reliable software platform for model application and future development. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Meta-analysis in evidence-based healthcare: a paradigm shift away from random effects is overdue.

PubMed

Doi, Suhail A R; Furuya-Kanamori, Luis; Thalib, Lukman; Barendregt, Jan J

2017-12-01

Each year up to 20 000 systematic reviews and meta-analyses are published whose results influence healthcare decisions, thus making the robustness and reliability of meta-analytic methods one of the world's top clinical and public health priorities. The evidence synthesis makes use of either fixed-effect or random-effects statistical methods. The fixed-effect method has largely been replaced by the random-effects method as heterogeneity of study effects led to poor error estimation. However, despite the widespread use and acceptance of the random-effects method to correct this, it too remains unsatisfactory and continues to suffer from defective error estimation, posing a serious threat to decision-making in evidence-based clinical and public health practice. We discuss here the problem with the random-effects approach and demonstrate that there exist better estimators under the fixed-effect model framework that can achieve optimal error estimation. We argue for an urgent return to the earlier framework with updates that address these problems and conclude that doing so can markedly improve the reliability of meta-analytical findings and thus decision-making in healthcare.
Effect of Impurities on the Freezing Point of Zinc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jianping; Rudtsch, Steffen; Niu, Yalu; Zhang, Lin; Wang, Wei; Den, Xiaolong

2017-03-01

The knowledge of the liquidus slope of impurities in fixed-point metal defined by the International Temperature Scale of 1990 is important for the estimation of uncertainties and correction of fixed point with the sum of individual estimates method. Great attentions are paid to the effect of ultra-trace impurities on the freezing point of zinc in the National Institute of Metrology. In the present work, the liquidus slopes of Ga-Zn, Ge-Zn were measured with the slim fixed-point cell developed through the doping experiments, and the temperature characteristics of the phase diagram of Fe-Zn were furthermore investigated. A quasi-adiabatic Zn fixed-point cell was developed with the thermometer well surrounded by the crucible with the pure metal, and the temperature uniformity of less than 20 mK in the region where the metal is located was obtained. The previous doping experiment of Pb-Zn with slim fixed-point cell was checked with quasi-adiabatic Zn fixed-point cell, and the result supports the previous liquidus slope measured with the traditional fixed-point realization.
48 CFR 1852.216-74 - Estimated cost and fixed fee.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... and Clauses 1852.216-74 Estimated cost and fixed fee. As prescribed in 1816.307-70(b), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Fixed Fee (DEC 1991) The estimated cost of this contract is ______ exclusive of the fixed fee of ______. The total estimated cost and fixed fee is ______. (End of clause) [62...
Estimation of breeding values using selected pedigree records.

PubMed

Morton, Richard; Howarth, Jordan M

2005-06-01

Fish bred in tanks or ponds cannot be easily tagged individually. The parentage of any individual may be determined by DNA fingerprinting, but is sufficiently expensive that large numbers cannot be so finger-printed. The measurement of the objective trait can be made on a much larger sample relatively cheaply. This article deals with experimental designs for selecting individuals to be finger-printed and for the estimation of the individual and family breeding values. The general setup provides estimates for both genetic effects regarded as fixed or random and for fixed effects due to known regressors. The family effects can be well estimated when even very small numbers are finger-printed, provided that they are the individuals with the most extreme phenotypes.
Globalisation and national trends in nutrition and health: A grouped fixed-effects approach to intercountry heterogeneity.

PubMed

Oberlander, Lisa; Disdier, Anne-Célia; Etilé, Fabrice

2017-09-01

Using a panel dataset of 70 countries spanning 42 years (1970-2011), we investigate the distinct effects of social globalisation and trade openness on national trends in markers of diet quality (supplies of animal proteins, free fats and sugar, average body mass index, and diabetes prevalence). Our key methodological contribution is the application of a grouped fixed-effects estimator, which extends linear fixed-effects models. The grouped fixed-effects estimator partitions our sample into distinct groups of countries in order to control for time-varying unobserved heterogeneity that follows a group-specific pattern. We find that increasing social globalisation has a significant impact on the supplies of animal protein and sugar available for human consumption, as well as on mean body mass index. Specific components of social globalisation such as information flows (via television and the Internet) drive these results. Trade openness has no effect on dietary outcomes or health. These findings suggest that the social and cultural aspects of globalisation should receive greater attention in research on the nutrition transition. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Combining Heterogeneous Correlation Matrices: Simulation Analysis of Fixed-Effects Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hafdahl, Adam R.

2008-01-01

Monte Carlo studies of several fixed-effects methods for combining and comparing correlation matrices have shown that two refinements improve estimation and inference substantially. With rare exception, however, these simulations have involved homogeneous data analyzed using conditional meta-analytic procedures. The present study builds on…
Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander

2016-01-01

Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.
Estimating the Effects of Parental Divorce and Death With Fixed Effects Models.

PubMed

Amato, Paul R; Anthony, Christopher J

2014-04-01

The authors used child fixed effects models to estimate the effects of parental divorce and death on a variety of outcomes using 2 large national data sets: (a) the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Cohort (kindergarten through the 5th grade) and (b) the National Educational Longitudinal Study (8th grade to the senior year of high school). In both data sets, divorce and death were associated with multiple negative outcomes among children. Although evidence for a causal effect of divorce on children was reasonably strong, effect sizes were small in magnitude. A second analysis revealed a substantial degree of variability in children's outcomes following parental divorce, with some children declining, others improving, and most not changing at all. The estimated effects of divorce appeared to be strongest among children with the highest propensity to experience parental divorce.
Asymptotic Effect of Misspecification in the Random Part of the Multilevel Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berkhof, Johannes; Kampen, Jarl Kennard

2004-01-01

The authors examine the asymptotic effect of omitting a random coefficient in the multilevel model and derive expressions for the change in (a) the variance components estimator and (b) the estimated variance of the fixed effects estimator. They apply the method of moments, which yields a closed form expression for the omission effect. In…

State estimation for networked control systems using fixed data rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qing-Quan; Jin, Fang

2017-07-01

This paper investigates state estimation for linear time-invariant systems where sensors and controllers are geographically separated and connected via a bandwidth-limited and errorless communication channel with the fixed data rate. All plant states are quantised, coded and converted together into a codeword in our quantisation and coding scheme. We present necessary and sufficient conditions on the fixed data rate for observability of such systems, and further develop the data-rate theorem. It is shown in our results that there exists a quantisation and coding scheme to ensure observability of the system if the fixed data rate is larger than the lower bound given, which is less conservative than the one in the literature. Furthermore, we also examine the role that the disturbances have on the state estimation problem in the case with data-rate limitations. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Fixed-time stability of dynamical systems and fixed-time synchronization of coupled discontinuous neural networks.

PubMed

Hu, Cheng; Yu, Juan; Chen, Zhanheng; Jiang, Haijun; Huang, Tingwen

2017-05-01

In this paper, the fixed-time stability of dynamical systems and the fixed-time synchronization of coupled discontinuous neural networks are investigated under the framework of Filippov solution. Firstly, by means of reduction to absurdity, a theorem of fixed-time stability is established and a high-precision estimation of the settling-time is given. It is shown by theoretic proof that the estimation bound of the settling time given in this paper is less conservative and more accurate compared with the classical results. Besides, as an important application, the fixed-time synchronization of coupled neural networks with discontinuous activation functions is proposed. By designing a discontinuous control law and using the theory of differential inclusions, some new criteria are derived to ensure the fixed-time synchronization of the addressed coupled networks. Finally, two numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness and validity of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Comparison of Measured and Estimated CT Organ Doses for Modulated and Fixed Tube Current:: A Human Cadaver Study.

PubMed

Padole, Atul; Deedar Ali Khawaja, Ranish; Otrakji, Alexi; Zhang, Da; Liu, Bob; Xu, X George; Kalra, Mannudeep K

2016-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare the directly measured and the estimated computed tomography (CT) organ doses obtained from commercial radiation dose-tracking (RDT) software for CT performed with modulated tube current or automatic exposure control (AEC) technique and fixed tube current (mAs). With the institutional review board (IRB) approval, the ionization chambers were surgically implanted in a human cadaver (88 years old, male, 68 kg) in six locations such as liver, stomach, colon, left kidney, small intestine, and urinary bladder. The cadaver was scanned with routine abdomen pelvis protocol on a 128-slice, dual-source multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) scanner using both AEC and fixed mAs. The effective and quality reference mAs of 100, 200, and 300 were used for AEC and fixed mAs, respectively. Scanning was repeated three times for each setting, and measured and estimated organ doses (from RDT software) were recorded (N = 3*3*2 = 18). Mean CTDIvol for AEC and fixed mAs were 4, 8, 13 mGy and 7, 14, 21 mGy, respectively. The most estimated organ doses were significantly greater (P < 0.01) than the measured organ doses for both AEC and fixed mAs. At AEC, the mean estimated organ doses (for six organs) were 14.7 mGy compared to mean measured organ doses of 12.3 mGy. Similarly, at fixed mAs, the mean estimated organ doses (for six organs) were 24 mGy compared to measured organ doses of 22.3 mGy. The differences among the measured and estimated organ doses were higher for AEC technique compared to the fixed mAs for most organs (P < 0.01). The most CT organ doses estimated from RDT software are greater compared to directly measured organ doses, particularly when AEC technique is used for CT scanning. Copyright © 2016 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Estimation of Spatial Dynamic Nonparametric Durbin Models with Fixed Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Qian, Minghui; Hu, Ridong; Chen, Jianwei

2016-01-01

Spatial panel data models have been widely studied and applied in both scientific and social science disciplines, especially in the analysis of spatial influence. In this paper, we consider the spatial dynamic nonparametric Durbin model (SDNDM) with fixed effects, which takes the nonlinear factors into account base on the spatial dynamic panel…
Evaluation of the Effect of Non-Current Fixed Assets on Profitability and Asset Management Efficiency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lubyanaya, Alexandra V.; Izmailov, Airat M.; Nikulina, Ekaterina Y.; Shaposhnikov, Vladislav A.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to investigate the problem, which stems from non-current fixed assets affecting profitability and asset management efficiency. Tangible assets, intangible assets and financial assets are all included in non-current fixed assets. The aim of the research is to identify the impact of estimates and valuation in…
Estimating the Effects of Parental Divorce and Death With Fixed Effects Models

PubMed Central

Amato, Paul R.; Anthony, Christopher J.

2014-01-01

The authors used child fixed effects models to estimate the effects of parental divorce and death on a variety of outcomes using 2 large national data sets: (a) the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Cohort (kindergarten through the 5th grade) and (b) the National Educational Longitudinal Study (8th grade to the senior year of high school). In both data sets, divorce and death were associated with multiple negative outcomes among children. Although evidence for a causal effect of divorce on children was reasonably strong, effect sizes were small in magnitude. A second analysis revealed a substantial degree of variability in children’s outcomes following parental divorce, with some children declining, others improving, and most not changing at all. The estimated effects of divorce appeared to be strongest among children with the highest propensity to experience parental divorce. PMID:24659827
Comparison of point counts and territory mapping for detecting effects of forest management on songbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newell, Felicity L.; Sheehan, James; Wood, Petra Bohall; Rodewald, Amanda D.; Buehler, David A.; Keyser, Patrick D.; Larkin, Jeffrey L.; Beachy, Tiffany A.; Bakermans, Marja H.; Boves, Than J.; Evans, Andrea; George, Gregory A.; McDermott, Molly E.; Perkins, Kelly A.; White, Matthew; Wigley, T. Bently

2013-01-01

Point counts are commonly used to assess changes in bird abundance, including analytical approaches such as distance sampling that estimate density. Point-count methods have come under increasing scrutiny because effects of detection probability and field error are difficult to quantify. For seven forest songbirds, we compared fixed-radii counts (50 m and 100 m) and density estimates obtained from distance sampling to known numbers of birds determined by territory mapping. We applied point-count analytic approaches to a typical forest management question and compared results to those obtained by territory mapping. We used a before–after control impact (BACI) analysis with a data set collected across seven study areas in the central Appalachians from 2006 to 2010. Using a 50-m fixed radius, variance in error was at least 1.5 times that of the other methods, whereas a 100-m fixed radius underestimated actual density by >3 territories per 10 ha for the most abundant species. Distance sampling improved accuracy and precision compared to fixed-radius counts, although estimates were affected by birds counted outside 10-ha units. In the BACI analysis, territory mapping detected an overall treatment effect for five of the seven species, and effects were generally consistent each year. In contrast, all point-count methods failed to detect two treatment effects due to variance and error in annual estimates. Overall, our results highlight the need for adequate sample sizes to reduce variance, and skilled observers to reduce the level of error in point-count data. Ultimately, the advantages and disadvantages of different survey methods should be considered in the context of overall study design and objectives, allowing for trade-offs among effort, accuracy, and power to detect treatment effects.
Evaluation of some random effects methodology applicable to bird ringing data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.

2002-01-01

Existing models for ring recovery and recapture data analysis treat temporal variations in annual survival probability (S) as fixed effects. Often there is no explainable structure to the temporal variation in S1,..., Sk; random effects can then be a useful model: Si = E(S) + ??i. Here, the temporal variation in survival probability is treated as random with average value E(??2) = ??2. This random effects model can now be fit in program MARK. Resultant inferences include point and interval estimation for process variation, ??2, estimation of E(S) and var (E??(S)) where the latter includes a component for ??2 as well as the traditional component for v??ar(S??\\S??). Furthermore, the random effects model leads to shrinkage estimates, Si, as improved (in mean square error) estimators of Si compared to the MLE, S??i, from the unrestricted time-effects model. Appropriate confidence intervals based on the Si are also provided. In addition, AIC has been generalized to random effects models. This paper presents results of a Monte Carlo evaluation of inference performance under the simple random effects model. Examined by simulation, under the simple one group Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, are issues such as bias of ??s2, confidence interval coverage on ??2, coverage and mean square error comparisons for inference about Si based on shrinkage versus maximum likelihood estimators, and performance of AIC model selection over three models: Si ??? S (no effects), Si = E(S) + ??i (random effects), and S1,..., Sk (fixed effects). For the cases simulated, the random effects methods performed well and were uniformly better than fixed effects MLE for the Si.
Measuring the Returns to Lifelong Learning. CEE DP 110

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanden, Jo; Buscha, Franz; Sturgis, Patrick; Urwin, Peter

2010-01-01

Using the 1991 to 2007 waves of the UK British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), the authors estimate a fixed effects specification that has as outcomes (i) earnings and (ii) an indicator of social position measured using the CAMSIS scale. Adopting a fixed effects specification enables them to isolate the role of lifelong learning on these two…
Comparison of biomechanical function at ideal and varied surgical placement for two lumbar artificial disc implant designs: mobile-core versus fixed-core.

PubMed

Moumene, Missoum; Geisler, Fred H

2007-08-01

Finite element model. To estimate the effect of lumbar mobile-core and fixed-core artificial disc design and placement on the loading of the facet joints, and stresses on the polyethylene core. Although both mobile-core and fixed-core lumbar artificial disc designs have been used clinically, the effect of their design and the effect of placement within the disc space on the structural element loading, and in particular the facets and the implant itself, have not been investigated. A 3D nonlinear finite element model of an intact ligamentous L4-L5 motion segment was developed and validated in all 6 df based on previous experiments conducted on human cadavers. Facet loading of a mobile-core TDR and a fixed-core TDR were estimated with 4 different prosthesis placements for 3 different ranges of motion. Placing the mobile-core TDR anywhere within the disc space reduced facet loading by more than 50%, while the fixed-core TDR increased facet loading by more than 10% when compared with the intact disc in axial rotation. For central (ideal) placement, the mobile- and fixed-core implants were subjected to compressive stresses on the order of 3 MPa and 24 MPa, respectively. The mobile-core stresses were not affected by implant placement, while the fixed-core stresses increased by up to 40%. A mobile-core artificial disc design is less sensitive to placement, and unloads the facet joints, compared with a fixed-core design. The decreased core stress may result in a reduced potential for wear in a mobile-core prosthesis compared with a fixed-core prosthesis, which may increase the functional longevity of the device.
Effects of sample size on KERNEL home range estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seaman, D.E.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Kernohan, Brian J.; Brundige, Gary C.; Raedeke, Kenneth J.; Gitzen, Robert A.

1999-01-01

Kernel methods for estimating home range are being used increasingly in wildlife research, but the effect of sample size on their accuracy is not known. We used computer simulations of 10-200 points/home range and compared accuracy of home range estimates produced by fixed and adaptive kernels with the reference (REF) and least-squares cross-validation (LSCV) methods for determining the amount of smoothing. Simulated home ranges varied from simple to complex shapes created by mixing bivariate normal distributions. We used the size of the 95% home range area and the relative mean squared error of the surface fit to assess the accuracy of the kernel home range estimates. For both measures, the bias and variance approached an asymptote at about 50 observations/home range. The fixed kernel with smoothing selected by LSCV provided the least-biased estimates of the 95% home range area. All kernel methods produced similar surface fit for most simulations, but the fixed kernel with LSCV had the lowest frequency and magnitude of very poor estimates. We reviewed 101 papers published in The Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) between 1980 and 1997 that estimated animal home ranges. A minority of these papers used nonparametric utilization distribution (UD) estimators, and most did not adequately report sample sizes. We recommend that home range studies using kernel estimates use LSCV to determine the amount of smoothing, obtain a minimum of 30 observations per animal (but preferably a?Y50), and report sample sizes in published results.
The Fixed-Effects Model in Returns to Schooling and Its Application to Community Colleges: A Methodological Note

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dynarski, Susan; Jacob, Brian; Kreisman, Daniel

2016-01-01

The purpose of this note is to develop insight into the performance of the individual fixed-effects model when used to estimate wage returns to postsecondary schooling. We focus our attention on the returns to attending and completing community college. While other methods (instrumental variables, regression discontinuity) have been used to…
Using Multisite Experiments to Study Cross-Site Variation in Treatment Effects: A Hybrid Approach with Fixed Intercepts and A Random Treatment Coefficient

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bloom, Howard S.; Raudenbush, Stephen W.; Weiss, Michael J.; Porter, Kristin

2017-01-01

The present article considers a fundamental question in evaluation research: "By how much do program effects vary across sites?" The article first presents a theoretical model of cross-site impact variation and a related estimation model with a random treatment coefficient and fixed site-specific intercepts. This approach eliminates…
Parametric analysis for matched pair survival data.

PubMed

Manatunga, A K; Oakes, D

1999-12-01

Hougaard's (1986) bivariate Weibull distribution with positive stable frailties is applied to matched pairs survival data when either or both components of the pair may be censored and covariate vectors may be of arbitrary fixed length. When there is no censoring, we quantify the corresponding gain in Fisher information over a fixed-effects analysis. With the appropriate parameterization, the results take a simple algebraic form. An alternative marginal ("independence working model") approach to estimation is also considered. This method ignores the correlation between the two survival times in the derivation of the estimator, but provides a valid estimate of standard error. It is shown that when both the correlation between the two survival times is high, and the ratio of the within-pair variability to the between-pair variability of the covariates is high, the fixed-effects analysis captures most of the information about the regression coefficient but the independence working model does badly. When the correlation is low, and/or most of the variability of the covariates occurs between pairs, the reverse is true. The random effects model is applied to data on skin grafts, and on loss of visual acuity among diabetics. In conclusion some extensions of the methods are indicated and they are placed in a wider context of Generalized Estimation Equation methodology.
A fixed-effects multilevel analysis of how community family structure affects individual mortality in Norway.

PubMed

Kravdal, Øystein

2007-08-01

By using register data for the entire Norwegian population aged 50-89 in the period 1980-1999, during which there were about 720,000 deaths, I estimate how the proportions of persons who were divorced or never married in the municipality affected all-cause mortality, net of individual marital status. The data include individual histories of changes in marital status and places of residence, providing a rare opportunity to enter municipality fixed effects into the model, thereby capturing the time-invariant unobserved factors at that level. The positive health externality of marriage that is suggested in the literature is supported by some of the estimates for women. Other estimates--especially those for men--point in the opposite direction. One possible interpretation of these findings is that social cohesion is perhaps not as beneficial for people's health as often claimed, at least not for both sexes. Alternatively, the results may reflect that marriage perhaps undermines rather than strengthens social cohesion, or that other mechanisms are involved-for example, those that are related to people 's perceptions of their health relative to the health of others. Estimates from models without such municipality fixed effects are markedly different, but these also shed doubt on the notion that a high proportion of unmarried persons generally increases individual mortality.
A general theoretical framework for interpreting patient-reported outcomes estimated from ordinally scaled item responses.

PubMed

Massof, Robert W

2014-10-01

A simple theoretical framework explains patient responses to items in rating scale questionnaires. Fixed latent variables position each patient and each item on the same linear scale. Item responses are governed by a set of fixed category thresholds, one for each ordinal response category. A patient's item responses are magnitude estimates of the difference between the patient variable and the patient's estimate of the item variable, relative to his/her personally defined response category thresholds. Differences between patients in their personal estimates of the item variable and in their personal choices of category thresholds are represented by random variables added to the corresponding fixed variables. Effects of intervention correspond to changes in the patient variable, the patient's response bias, and/or latent item variables for a subset of items. Intervention effects on patients' item responses were simulated by assuming the random variables are normally distributed with a constant scalar covariance matrix. Rasch analysis was used to estimate latent variables from the simulated responses. The simulations demonstrate that changes in the patient variable and changes in response bias produce indistinguishable effects on item responses and manifest as changes only in the estimated patient variable. Changes in a subset of item variables manifest as intervention-specific differential item functioning and as changes in the estimated person variable that equals the average of changes in the item variables. Simulations demonstrate that intervention-specific differential item functioning produces inefficiencies and inaccuracies in computer adaptive testing. © The Author(s) 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.
Estimating Teacher Effectiveness from Two-Year Changes in Students' Test Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leigh, Andrew

2010-01-01

Using a dataset covering over 10,000 Australian school teachers and over 90,000 pupils, I estimate how effective teachers are in raising students' test scores. Since the exams are biennial, it is necessary to take account of the teacher's work in the intervening year. Even adjusting for measurement error, the teacher fixed effects are widely…
Functional mixed effects spectral analysis

PubMed Central

KRAFTY, ROBERT T.; HALL, MARTICA; GUO, WENSHENG

2011-01-01

SUMMARY In many experiments, time series data can be collected from multiple units and multiple time series segments can be collected from the same unit. This article introduces a mixed effects Cramér spectral representation which can be used to model the effects of design covariates on the second-order power spectrum while accounting for potential correlations among the time series segments collected from the same unit. The transfer function is composed of a deterministic component to account for the population-average effects and a random component to account for the unit-specific deviations. The resulting log-spectrum has a functional mixed effects representation where both the fixed effects and random effects are functions in the frequency domain. It is shown that, when the replicate-specific spectra are smooth, the log-periodograms converge to a functional mixed effects model. A data-driven iterative estimation procedure is offered for the periodic smoothing spline estimation of the fixed effects, penalized estimation of the functional covariance of the random effects, and unit-specific random effects prediction via the best linear unbiased predictor. PMID:26855437
The 18 and 30 GHz fixed service communications satellite system study. [to determine the cost and performance characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bronstein, L. M.

1979-01-01

The use of the 18 and 30 GHz bands for fixed service satellite communications is examined. The cost and performance expected of 18 and 30 GHz hardware is assessed, selected trunking and direct to user concepts are optimized, and the cost of these systems are estimated. The effect of rain attenuation on the technical and economic viability of the system and methods circumventing the problem are discussed. Technology developments are investigated and cost estimates of these developments are presented.
Accounting for center in the Early External Cephalic Version trials: an empirical comparison of statistical methods to adjust for center in a multicenter trial with binary outcomes.

PubMed

Reitsma, Angela; Chu, Rong; Thorpe, Julia; McDonald, Sarah; Thabane, Lehana; Hutton, Eileen

2014-09-26

Clustering of outcomes at centers involved in multicenter trials is a type of center effect. The Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials Statement recommends that multicenter randomized controlled trials (RCTs) should account for center effects in their analysis, however most do not. The Early External Cephalic Version (EECV) trials published in 2003 and 2011 stratified by center at randomization, but did not account for center in the analyses, and due to the nature of the intervention and number of centers, may have been prone to center effects. Using data from the EECV trials, we undertook an empirical study to compare various statistical approaches to account for center effect while estimating the impact of external cephalic version timing (early or delayed) on the outcomes of cesarean section, preterm birth, and non-cephalic presentation at the time of birth. The data from the EECV pilot trial and the EECV2 trial were merged into one dataset. Fisher's exact method was used to test the overall effect of external cephalic version timing unadjusted for center effects. Seven statistical models that accounted for center effects were applied to the data. The models included: i) the Mantel-Haenszel test, ii) logistic regression with fixed center effect and fixed treatment effect, iii) center-size weighted and iv) un-weighted logistic regression with fixed center effect and fixed treatment-by-center interaction, iv) logistic regression with random center effect and fixed treatment effect, v) logistic regression with random center effect and random treatment-by-center interaction, and vi) generalized estimating equations. For each of the three outcomes of interest approaches to account for center effect did not alter the overall findings of the trial. The results were similar for the majority of the methods used to adjust for center, illustrating the robustness of the findings. Despite literature that suggests center effect can change the estimate of effect in multicenter trials, this empirical study does not show a difference in the outcomes of the EECV trials when accounting for center effect. The EECV2 trial was registered on 30 July 30 2005 with Current Controlled Trials: ISRCTN 56498577.

Cross Service Fixed-Wing Cost Estimation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-17

TRAC-M-TR-16-021 May 2016 Cross Service Fixed-Wing Cost Estimation TRADOC Analysis Center 700 Dyer Road Monterey, California 93943-0692 This study...Service Fixed-Wing Cost Estimation MAJ Jarrod S. Shingleton TRADOC Analysis Center 700 Dyer Road Monterey, California 93943-0692 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT...Wing Cost Estimation MAJ Jarrod Shingleton 060312 TRADOC Analysis Center, TRAC-MTRY Naval Postgraduate School 700 Dyer Road Bldg 246 Monterey, CA 93943
Absorbed dose estimates from a single measurement one to three days after the administration of 177Lu-DOTATATE/-TOC.

PubMed

Hänscheid, Heribert; Lapa, Constantin; Buck, Andreas K; Lassmann, Michael; Werner, Rudolf A

2017-01-01

To retrospectively analyze the accuracy of absorbed dose estimates from a single measurement of the activity concentrations in tumors and relevant organs one to three days after the administration of 177 Lu-DOTA-TATE/TOC assuming tissue specific effective half-lives. Activity kinetics in 54 kidneys, 30 neuroendocrine tumor lesions, 25 livers, and 27 spleens were deduced from series of planar images in 29 patients. After adaptation of mono- or bi-exponential fit functions to the measured data, it was analyzed for each fit function how precise the time integral can be estimated from fixed tissue-specific half-lives and a single measurement at 24, 48, or 72 h after the administration. For the kidneys, assuming a fixed tissue-specific half-life of 50 h, the deviations of the estimate from the actual integral were median (5 % percentile, 95 % percentile): -3 °% (-15 %>; +16 °%) for measurements after 24 h, +2 %> (-9 %>; +12 %>) for measurements after 48 h, and 0 % (-2 %; +12 %) for measurements after 72 h. The corresponding values for the other tissues, assuming fixed tissue-specific half-lives of 67 h for liver and spleen and 77 h for tumors, were +2 % (-25 %; +20 %) for measurements after 24 h, +2 °% (-16 %>; +17 %>) for measurements after 48 h, and +2 %> (-11 %>; +10 %>) for measurements after 72 h. Especially for the kidneys, which often represent the dose limiting organ, but also for liver, spleen, and neuroendocrine tumors, a meaningful absorbed dose estimate is possible from a single measurement after 2, more preferably 3 days after the administration of 177 Lu-DOTA-TATE/-TOC assuming fixed tissue specific effective half-lives. Schattauer GmbH.
Plot intensity and cycle-length effects on growth and removals estimates from forest inventories

Treesearch

Paul C. Van Deusen; Francis A. Roesch

2015-01-01

Continuous forest inventory planners can allocate the budget to more plots per acre or a shorter remeasurement cycle. A higher plot intensity benefits small area estimation and allows for more precision in current status estimates. Shorter cycles may provide better estimates of growth, removals and mortality. On a fixed budget, the planner can't have both greater...
Does the association of prostate cancer with night-shift work differ according to rotating vs. fixed schedule? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mancio, Jennifer; Leal, Cátia; Ferreira, Marta; Norton, Pedro; Lunet, Nuno

2018-04-27

Recent studies suggested that the relation between night-shift work and prostate cancer may differ between rotating and fixed schedules. We aimed to quantify the independent association between night-shift work and prostate cancer, for rotating and fixed schedules. We searched MEDLINE for studies assessing the association of night-shift work, by rotating or fixed schedules, with prostate cancer. We computed summary relative risk (RR) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) using the inverse variance method and quantified heterogeneity using the I 2 statistic. Meta-regression analysis was used to compare the summary RR estimates for rotating and fixed schedules, while reducing heterogeneity. A total of nine studies assessed the effect of rotating and, in addition, four of them provided the effect of fixed night-shift work, in relation to daytime workers. Rotating night-shift work was associated with a significantly increased risk of prostate cancer (RR = 1.06, 95% CI of 1.01 to 1.12; I 2 = 50%), but not fixed night-shift work (RR of 1.01, 95% CI of 0.81 to 1.26; I 2 = 33%). In meta-regression model including study design, type of population, and control of confounding, the summary RR was 20% higher for rotating vs. fixed schedule, with heterogeneity fully explained by these variables. This is the first meta-analysis suggesting that an increased risk of prostate cancer may be restricted to workers with rotating night shifts. However, the association was weak and additional studies are needed to further clarify this relation before it can be translated into measures for risk reduction in occupational settings.
Fixed-Time Outer Synchronization of Complex Networks with Noise Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Hong-Jun; Miao, Lian-Ying; Sun, Yong-Zheng; Liu, Mao-Xing

2018-03-01

In this paper, the fixed-time outer synchronization of complex networks with noise coupling is investigated. Based on the theory of fixed-time stability and matrix inequalities, sufficient conditions for fixed-time outer synchronization are established and the estimation of the upper bound of the setting time is obtained. The result shows that the setting time can be adjusted to a desired value regardless of the initial states. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the effectiveness of the theoretical results. The effects of control parameters and the density of controlled nodes on the converging time are studied. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11711530203 and 11771443, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant No. 2015XKMS076
Comparison and assessment of aerial and ground estimates of waterbird colonies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, M.C.; Luent, M.C.; Michot, T.C.; Jeske, C.W.; Leberg, P.L.

2008-01-01

Aerial surveys are often used to quantify sizes of waterbird colonies; however, these surveys would benefit from a better understanding of associated biases. We compared estimates of breeding pairs of waterbirds, in colonies across southern Louisiana, USA, made from the ground, fixed-wing aircraft, and a helicopter. We used a marked-subsample method for ground-counting colonies to obtain estimates of error and visibility bias. We made comparisons over 2 sampling periods: 1) surveys conducted on the same colonies using all 3 methods during 3-11 May 2005 and 2) an expanded fixed-wing and ground-survey comparison conducted over 4 periods (May and Jun, 2004-2005). Estimates from fixed-wing aircraft were approximately 65% higher than those from ground counts for overall estimated number of breeding pairs and for both dark and white-plumaged species. The coefficient of determination between estimates based on ground and fixed-wing aircraft was ???0.40 for most species, and based on the assumption that estimates from the ground were closer to the true count, fixed-wing aerial surveys appeared to overestimate numbers of nesting birds of some species; this bias often increased with the size of the colony. Unlike estimates from fixed-wing aircraft, numbers of nesting pairs made from ground and helicopter surveys were very similar for all species we observed. Ground counts by one observer resulted in underestimated number of breeding pairs by 20% on average. The marked-subsample method provided an estimate of the number of missed nests as well as an estimate of precision. These estimates represent a major advantage of marked-subsample ground counts over aerial methods; however, ground counts are difficult in large or remote colonies. Helicopter surveys and ground counts provide less biased, more precise estimates of breeding pairs than do surveys made from fixed-wing aircraft. We recommend managers employ ground counts using double observers for surveying waterbird colonies when feasible. Fixed-wing aerial surveys may be suitable to determine colony activity and composition of common waterbird species. The most appropriate combination of survey approaches will be based on the need for precise and unbiased estimates, balanced with financial and logistical constraints.
The Fiscal Effects of School Choice Programs on Public School Districts. National Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scafidi, Benjamin

2012-01-01

In this report, the author constructs the first ever estimates for each state and the District of Columbia of the short-run fixed costs of educating children in public schools. He endeavors to make cautious overestimates of these short-run fixed costs. The United States' average spending per student was $12,450 in 2008-09. The author estimates…
A Fiscal Analysis of Fixed-Amount Federal Grants-in-Aid: The Case of Vocational Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patterson, Philip D., Jr.

A fiscal analysis of fixed-amount Federal grant programs using the criteria of effectiveness, efficiency, and equity is essential to an evaluation of the Federal grant structure. Measures of program need should be current, comparable over time and among states, and subjected to sensitivity analysis so that future grants can be estimated. Income…
A Structural Modeling Approach to a Multilevel Random Coefficients Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rovine, Michael J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2000-01-01

Presents a method for estimating the random coefficients model using covariance structure modeling and allowing one to estimate both fixed and random effects. The method is applied to real and simulated data, including marriage data from J. Belsky and M. Rovine (1990). (SLD)
An Analysis of Variance Approach for the Estimation of Response Time Distributions in Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Attali, Yigal

2010-01-01

Generalizability theory and analysis of variance methods are employed, together with the concept of objective time pressure, to estimate response time distributions and the degree of time pressure in timed tests. By estimating response time variance components due to person, item, and their interaction, and fixed effects due to item types and…
Continuous uniformly finite time exact disturbance observer based control for fixed-time stabilization of nonlinear systems with mismatched disturbances

PubMed Central

Liu, Chongxin; Liu, Hang

2017-01-01

This paper presents a continuous composite control scheme to achieve fixed-time stabilization for nonlinear systems with mismatched disturbances. The composite controller is constructed in two steps: First, uniformly finite time exact disturbance observers are proposed to estimate and compensate the disturbances. Then, based on adding a power integrator technique and fixed-time stability theory, continuous fixed-time stable state feedback controller and Lyapunov functions are constructed to achieve global fixed-time system stabilization. The proposed control method extends the existing fixed-time stable control results to high order nonlinear systems with mismatched disturbances and achieves global fixed-time system stabilization. Besides, the proposed control scheme improves the disturbance rejection performance and achieves performance recovery of nominal system. Simulation results are provided to show the effectiveness, the superiority and the applicability of the proposed control scheme. PMID:28406966
Fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States : revised estimates for 1995-97 and summary estimates for 1925-97

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-09-01

The tables that follow present new estimates of fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States for 1997 and revised estimates for 199596. These estimates, which cover net stocks of privately owned and government owned durable equipment an...
Detecting and correcting for publication bias in meta-analysis - A truncated normal distribution approach.

PubMed

Zhu, Qiaohao; Carriere, K C

2016-01-01

Publication bias can significantly limit the validity of meta-analysis when trying to draw conclusion about a research question from independent studies. Most research on detection and correction for publication bias in meta-analysis focus mainly on funnel plot-based methodologies or selection models. In this paper, we formulate publication bias as a truncated distribution problem, and propose new parametric solutions. We develop methodologies of estimating the underlying overall effect size and the severity of publication bias. We distinguish the two major situations, in which publication bias may be induced by: (1) small effect size or (2) large p-value. We consider both fixed and random effects models, and derive estimators for the overall mean and the truncation proportion. These estimators will be obtained using maximum likelihood estimation and method of moments under fixed- and random-effects models, respectively. We carried out extensive simulation studies to evaluate the performance of our methodology, and to compare with the non-parametric Trim and Fill method based on funnel plot. We find that our methods based on truncated normal distribution perform consistently well, both in detecting and correcting publication bias under various situations.
Improved estimates of fixed reproducible tangible wealth, 1929-95

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-05-01

This article presents revised estimates of the value of fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States for 192995; these estimates incorporate the definitional and statistical : improvements introduced in last years comprehensive revis...
Time to burn: Modeling wildland arson as an autoregressive crime function

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry

2005-01-01

Six Poisson autoregressive models of order p [PAR(p)] of daily wildland arson ignition counts are estimated for five locations in Florida (1994-2001). In addition, a fixed effects time-series Poisson model of annual arson counts is estimated for all Florida counties (1995-2001). PAR(p) model estimates reveal highly significant arson ignition autocorrelation, lasting up...
Estimating the Counterfactual Impact of Conservation Programs on Land Cover Outcomes: The Role of Matching and Panel Regression Techniques.

PubMed

Jones, Kelly W; Lewis, David J

2015-01-01

Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented--from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)--to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing 'matching' to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods--an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators--due to the presence of unobservable bias--that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case illustrates that if time-invariant unobservables are not present, matching combined with differences in means or cross-sectional regression leads to similar estimates of program effectiveness as matching combined with fixed effects panel regression. These results highlight the importance of considering observable and unobservable forms of bias and the methodological assumptions across estimators when designing an impact evaluation of conservation programs.
Returns to scientific publications for pharmaceutical products in the United States.

PubMed

Slejko, Julia F; Basu, Anirban; Sullivan, Sean D

2018-02-01

Drug-specific clinical and health economic and outcomes research (HEOR) publications have amassed, but their effect on drug sales is largely unknown. We estimated the impact of publications on pharmaceutical sales in 3 markets (statins, rheumatoid arthritis, and asthma drugs) with varying generic competition. An event-study approach with fixed effects and difference-in-fixed-effects modeling was used to estimate the causal effects of drug-specific publications on subsequent quarter's drug-specific sales and volume. High-impact clinical and HEOR publications have significant positive effects on sales (mediated through price) and volume in the statin market (high generic competition). High-impact clinical publications have a significant positive effect on sales (mediated through volume) in low-generic competition market (asthma). The effects of publications in the rheumatoid arthritis market (no generic competition) on sales were null. Manufacturers' investment in clinical and HEOR publications needs to be strategic and should be anticipated and complemented by public investments in such studies. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Fixed or adapted conditioning intensity for repeated conditioned pain modulation.

PubMed

Hoegh, M; Petersen, K K; Graven-Nielsen, T

2017-12-29

Aims Conditioned pain modulation (CPM) is used to assess descending pain modulation through a test stimulation (TS) and a conditioning stimulation (CS). Due to potential carry-over effects, sequential CPM paradigms might alter the intensity of the CS, which potentially can alter the CPM-effect. This study aimed to investigate the difference between a fixed and adaptive CS intensity on CPM-effect. Methods On the dominant leg of 20 healthy subjects the cuff pressure detection threshold (PDT) was recorded as TS and the pain tolerance threshold (PTT) was assessed on the non-dominant leg for estimating the CS. The difference in PDT before and during CS defined the CPM-effect. The CPM-effect was assessed four times using a CS with intensities of 70% of baseline PTT (fixed) or 70% of PTT measured throughout the session (adaptive). Pain intensity of the conditioning stimulus was assessed on a numeric rating scale (NRS). Data were analyzed with repeated-measures ANOVA. Results No difference was found comparing the four PDTs assessed before CSs for the fixed and the adaptive paradigms. The CS pressure intensity for the adaptive paradigm was increasing during the four repeated assessments (P < 0.01). The pain intensity was similar during the fixed (NRS: 5.8±0.5) and the adjusted paradigm (NRS: 6.0±0.4). The CPM-effect was higher using the fixed condition compared with the adaptive condition (P < 0.05). Conclusions The current study found that sequential CPM paradigms using a fixed conditioning stimulus produced an increased CPM-effect compared with adaptive and increasing conditioning intensities.
Effect of inclusion or non-inclusion of short lactations and cow and/or dam genetic group on genetic evaluation of Girolando dairy cattle.

PubMed

Canaza-Cayo, A W; Silva, M V G B; Cobuci, J A; Martins, M F; Lopes, P S

2016-04-04

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of inclusion or non-inclusion of short lactations and cow (CGG) and/or dam (DGG) genetic group on the genetic evaluation of 305-day milk yield (MY305), age at first calving (AFC), and first calving interval (FCI) of Girolando cows. Covariance components were estimated by the restricted maximum likelihood method in an animal model of single trait analyses. The heritability estimates for MY305, AFC, and FCI ranged from 0.23 to 0.29, 0.40 to 0.44, and 0.13 to 0.14, respectively, when short lactations were not included, and from 0.23 to 0.28, 0.39 to 0.43, and 0.13 to 0.14, respectively, when short lactations were included. The inclusion of short lactations caused little variation in the variance components and heritability estimates of traits, but their non-inclusion resulted in the re-ranking of animals. Models with CGG or DGG fixed effects had higher heritability estimates for all traits compared with models that consider these two effects simultaneously. We recommend using the model with fixed effects of CGG and inclusion of short lactations for the genetic evaluation of Girolando cattle.
The impact of multiple endpoint dependency on Q and I(2) in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, Christopher Glen; Becker, Betsy Jane

2014-09-01

A common assumption in meta-analysis is that effect sizes are independent. When correlated effect sizes are analyzed using traditional univariate techniques, this assumption is violated. This research assesses the impact of dependence arising from treatment-control studies with multiple endpoints on homogeneity measures Q and I(2) in scenarios using the unbiased standardized-mean-difference effect size. Univariate and multivariate meta-analysis methods are examined. Conditions included different overall outcome effects, study sample sizes, numbers of studies, between-outcomes correlations, dependency structures, and ways of computing the correlation. The univariate approach used typical fixed-effects analyses whereas the multivariate approach used generalized least-squares (GLS) estimates of a fixed-effects model, weighted by the inverse variance-covariance matrix. Increased dependence among effect sizes led to increased Type I error rates from univariate models. When effect sizes were strongly dependent, error rates were drastically higher than nominal levels regardless of study sample size and number of studies. In contrast, using GLS estimation to account for multiple-endpoint dependency maintained error rates within nominal levels. Conversely, mean I(2) values were not greatly affected by increased amounts of dependency. Last, we point out that the between-outcomes correlation should be estimated as a pooled within-groups correlation rather than using a full-sample estimator that does not consider treatment/control group membership. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparisons of two moments-based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log Pearson type III distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, John F.; Salas, José D.; Jarrett, Robert D.

2003-09-01

The expected moments algorithm (EMA) [, 1997] and the Bulletin 17B [, 1982] historical weighting procedure (B17H) for the log Pearson type III distribution are compared by Monte Carlo computer simulation for cases in which historical and/or paleoflood data are available. The relative performance of the estimators was explored for three cases: fixed-threshold exceedances, a fixed number of large floods, and floods generated from a different parent distribution. EMA can effectively incorporate four types of historical and paleoflood data: floods where the discharge is explicitly known, unknown discharges below a single threshold, floods with unknown discharge that exceed some level, and floods with discharges described in a range. The B17H estimator can utilize only the first two types of historical information. Including historical/paleoflood data in the simulation experiments significantly improved the quantile estimates in terms of mean square error and bias relative to using gage data alone. EMA performed significantly better than B17H in nearly all cases considered. B17H performed as well as EMA for estimating X100 in some limited fixed-threshold exceedance cases. EMA performed comparatively much better in other fixed-threshold situations, for the single large flood case, and in cases when estimating extreme floods equal to or greater than X500. B17H did not fully utilize historical information when the historical period exceeded 200 years. Robustness studies using GEV-simulated data confirmed that EMA performed better than B17H. Overall, EMA is preferred to B17H when historical and paleoflood data are available for flood frequency analysis.
The spatial impact of neighbouring on the exports activities of COMESA countries by using spatial panel models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamzalouh, L.; Ismail, M. T.; Rahman, R. A.

2017-09-01

In this paper, spatial panel models were used and the method for selecting the best model amongst the spatial fixed effects model and the spatial random effects model to estimate the fitting model by using the robust Hausman test for analysis of the exports pattern of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern African (COMESA) countries. And examine the effects of the interactions of the economic statistic of explanatory variables on the exports of the COMESA. Results indicated that the spatial Durbin model with fixed effects specification should be tested and considered in most cases of this study. After that, the direct and indirect effects among COMESA regions were assessed, and the role of indirect spatial effects in estimating exports was empirically demonstrated. Regarding originality and research value, and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine exports between COMESA and its member countries through spatial panel models using XSMLE, which is a new command for spatial analysis using STATA.
Model of continual metabolism species for estimating stability of CELSS and natural ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartsev, S. I.

Estimation of stability range of natural and man-made ecosystems is necessary for effective control of them However traditional ecological models usually underestimate stability of real ecosystems It takes place due to the usage of fixed stoichiometry model of metabolism The objective is in creating theoretical and mathematical models for adequate description of both man-made and natural ecological systems A concept of genetically fixed but metabolically flexible species is considered in the paper According to the concept the total flow of matter through ecological system is supported at almost constant level depending on energy income by flexibility of metabolic organization of genetic species It is shown introducing continual metabolism species extends the range of stability making its estimation more adequate to real ecological systems
Distortions in Distributions of Impact Estimates in Multi-Site Trials: The Central Limit Theorem Is Not Your Friend

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

May, Henry

2014-01-01

Interest in variation in program impacts--How big is it? What might explain it?--has inspired recent work on the analysis of data from multi-site experiments. One critical aspect of this problem involves the use of random or fixed effect estimates to visualize the distribution of impact estimates across a sample of sites. Unfortunately, unless the…
A Bayesian Nonparametric Meta-Analysis Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G.

2015-01-01

In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall…
Particulate air pollution and panel studies in children: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Ward, D; Ayres, J

2004-01-01

Aims: To systematically review the results of such studies in children, estimate summary measures of effect, and investigate potential sources of heterogeneity. Methods: Studies were identified by searching electronic databases to June 2002, including those where outcomes and particulate level measurements were made at least daily for ⩾8 weeks, and analysed using an appropriate regression model. Study results were compared using forest plots, and fixed and random effects summary effect estimates obtained. Publication bias was considered using a funnel plot. Results: Twenty two studies were identified, all except two reporting PM10 (24 hour mean) >50 µg.m-3. Reported effects of PM10 on PEF were widely spread and smaller than those for PM2.5 (fixed effects summary: -0.012 v -0.063 l.min-1 per µg.m-3 rise). A similar pattern was evident for symptoms. Random effects models produced larger estimates. Overall, in between-study comparisons, panels of children with diagnosed asthma or pre-existing respiratory symptoms appeared less affected by PM10 levels than those without, and effect estimates were larger where studies were conducted in higher ozone conditions. Larger PM10 effect estimates were obtained from studies using generalised estimating equations to model autocorrelation and where results were derived by pooling subject specific regression coefficients. A funnel plot of PM10 results for PEF was markedly asymmetrical. Conclusions: The majority of identified studies indicate an adverse effect of particulate air pollution that is greater for PM2.5 than PM10. However, results show considerable heterogeneity and there is evidence consistent with publication bias, so limited confidence may be placed on summary estimates of effect. The possibility of interaction between particle and ozone effects merits further investigation, as does variability due to analytical differences that alter the interpretation of final estimates. PMID:15031404
Multivariate meta-analysis with an increasing number of parameters

PubMed Central

Boca, Simina M.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Sampson, Joshua N.

2017-01-01

Summary Meta-analysis can average estimates of multiple parameters, such as a treatment’s effect on multiple outcomes, across studies. Univariate meta-analysis (UVMA) considers each parameter individually, while multivariate meta-analysis (MVMA) considers the parameters jointly and accounts for the correlation between their estimates. The performance of MVMA and UVMA has been extensively compared in scenarios with two parameters. Our objective is to compare the performance of MVMA and UVMA as the number of parameters, p, increases. Specifically, we show that (i) for fixed-effect meta-analysis, the benefit from using MVMA can substantially increase as p increases; (ii) for random effects meta-analysis, the benefit from MVMA can increase as p increases, but the potential improvement is modest in the presence of high between-study variability and the actual improvement is further reduced by the need to estimate an increasingly large between study covariance matrix; and (iii) when there is little to no between study variability, the loss of efficiency due to choosing random effects MVMA over fixed-effect MVMA increases as p increases. We demonstrate these three features through theory, simulation, and a meta-analysis of risk factors for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma. PMID:28195655
Learning by Doing, Scale Effects, or Neither? Cardiac Surgeons after Residency

PubMed Central

Huesch, Marco D

2009-01-01

Objective To examine impacts of operating surgeon scale and cumulative experience on postoperative outcomes for patients treated with coronary artery bypass grafts (CABG) by “new” surgeons. Pooled linear, fixed effects panel, and instrumented regressions were estimated. Data Sources The administrative data included comorbidities, procedures, and outcomes for 19,978 adult CABG patients in Florida in 1998–2006, and public data on 57 cardiac surgeons who completed residencies after 1997. Study Design Analysis was at the patient level. Controls for risk, hospital scale and scope, and operating surgeon characteristics were made. Patient choice model instruments were constructed. Experience was estimated allowing for “forgetting” effects. Principal Findings Panel regressions with surgeon fixed effects showed neither surgeon scale nor cumulative volumes significantly impacted mortality nor consistently impacted morbidity. Estimation of “forgetting” suggests that almost all prior experience is depreciated from one quarter to the next. Instruments were strong, but exogeneity of volume was not rejected. Conclusions In postresidency surgeons, no persuasive evidence is found for learning by doing, scale, or selection effects. More research is needed to support the cautious view that, for these “new” cardiac surgeons, patient volume could be redistributed based on realized outcomes without disruption. PMID:19732169
Breeding objectives for pigs in Kenya. II: economic values incorporating risks in different smallholder production systems.

PubMed

Mbuthia, Jackson Mwenda; Rewe, Thomas Odiwuor; Kahi, Alexander Kigunzu

2015-02-01

This study estimated economic values for production traits (dressing percentage (DP), %; live weight for growers (LWg), kg; live weight for sows (LWs), kg) and functional traits (feed intake for growers (FEEDg), feed intake for sow (FEEDs), preweaning survival rate (PrSR), %; postweaning survival (PoSR), %; sow survival rate (SoSR), %, total number of piglets born (TNB) and farrowing interval (FI), days) under different smallholder pig production systems in Kenya. Economic values were estimated considering two production circumstances: fixed-herd and fixed-feed. Under the fixed-herd scenario, economic values were estimated assuming a situation where the herd cannot be increased due to other constraints apart from feed resources. The fixed-feed input scenario assumed that the herd size is restricted by limitation of feed resources available. In addition to the tradition profit model, a risk-rated bio-economic model was used to derive risk-rated economic values. This model accounted for imperfect knowledge concerning risk attitude of farmers and variance of input and output prices. Positive economic values obtained for traits DP, LWg, LWs, PoSR, PrSR, SoSR and TNB indicate that targeting them in improvement would positively impact profitability in pig breeding programmes. Under the fixed-feed basis, the risk-rated economic values for DP, LWg, LWs and SoSR were similar to those obtained under the fixed-herd situation. Accounting for risks in the EVs did not yield errors greater than ±50 % in all the production systems and basis of evaluation meaning there would be relatively little effect on the real genetic gain of a selection index. Therefore, both traditional and risk-rated models can be satisfactorily used to predict profitability in pig breeding programmes.
Estimating the Counterfactual Impact of Conservation Programs on Land Cover Outcomes: The Role of Matching and Panel Regression Techniques

PubMed Central

Jones, Kelly W.; Lewis, David J.

2015-01-01

Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented—from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)—to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing ‘matching’ to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods—an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators—due to the presence of unobservable bias—that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case illustrates that if time-invariant unobservables are not present, matching combined with differences in means or cross-sectional regression leads to similar estimates of program effectiveness as matching combined with fixed effects panel regression. These results highlight the importance of considering observable and unobservable forms of bias and the methodological assumptions across estimators when designing an impact evaluation of conservation programs. PMID:26501964
Adolescent health and adult labor market outcomes.

PubMed

Lundborg, Petter; Nilsson, Anton; Rooth, Dan-Olof

2014-09-01

Whereas a large literature has shown the importance of early life health for adult socioeconomic outcomes, there is little evidence on the importance of adolescent health. We contribute to the literature by studying the impact of adolescent health status on adult labor market outcomes using a unique and large-scale dataset covering almost the entire population of Swedish males. We show that most types of major conditions have long-run effects on future outcomes, and that the strongest effects result from mental conditions. Including sibling fixed effects or twin pair fixed effects reduces the magnitudes of the estimates, but they remain substantial. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Carbon fixation in sediments of Sino-Pacific seas-differential contributions of bacterial and archaeal domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Anindita; Cao, Wenrui; Zhang, Hongjie; Saren, Gaowa; Jiang, Mingyu; Yu, Xinke

2017-11-01

Oceanic stretches experiencing perpetual darkness and extreme limitation of utilizable organic matter often rely on chemosynthetic carbon (C)-fixation. However, C-fixation is not limited to carbon-deplete environments alone but might also occur in varying degrees in carbon-replete locales depending on the nature and concentration of utilizable carbon, electron donors and acceptors. Quantification of microbial C-fixation and relative contribution of domains bacteria and archaea are therefore crucial. The present experiment estimates the differential rates of C-fixation by archaea and bacteria along with the effects of different electron donors. Four Sino-Pacific marine sediments from Bashi strait (Western Pacific Warm Pool), East China Sea, South China Sea and Okinawa Trough were examined. Total microbial C-uptake was estimated by doping of aqueous NaH14CO3. Total bacterial C-uptake was measured by blocking archaeal metabolism using inhibitor GC7. Archaeal contribution was estimated by subtracting total bacterial from total microbial C-uptake. Effect of electron donor addition was analyzed by spiking with ammonium, sulfide, and reduced metals. Results suggested that C-fixation in marine sediments was not the function of archaea alone, which was in contrast to results from several recent publications. C-fixing bacteria are also equally active. Often in spite of great effort of one domain to fix carbon, the system does not become net C-fixing due to equal and opposite C-releasing activity of the other domain. Thus a C-releasing bacterial or archaeal community can become C-fixing with the change of nature and concentration of electron donors.
E-cigarette price sensitivity among middle- and high-school students: evidence from monitoring the future.

PubMed

Pesko, Michael F; Huang, Jidong; Johnston, Lloyd D; Chaloupka, Frank J

2018-05-01

We estimated associations between e-cigarette prices (both disposable and refill) and e-cigarette use among middle and high-school students in the United States. We also estimated associations between cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. We used regression models to estimate the associations between e-cigarette and cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. In our regression models, we exploited changes in e-cigarette and cigarette prices across four periods of time and across 50 markets. We report the associations as price elasticities. In our primary model, we controlled for socio-demographic characteristics, cigarette prices, tobacco control policies, market fixed effects and year-quarter fixed effects. United States of America. A total of 24 370 middle- and high-school students participating in the Monitoring the Future Survey in years 2014 and 2015. Self-reported e-cigarette use over the last 30 days. Average quarterly cigarette prices, e-cigarette disposable prices and e-cigarette refill prices were constructed from Nielsen retail data (inclusive of excise taxes) for 50 US markets. In a model with market fixed effects, we estimated that a 10% increase in e-cigarette disposable prices is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping among e-cigarette users by approximately 9.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -17.7 to 1.8%; P = 0.02] and is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping by the full sample by approximately 17.9% (95% CI = -31.5 to -4.2%; P = 0.01). Refill e-cigarette prices were not statistically significant predictors of vaping. Cigarette prices were not associated significantly with e-cigarette use regardless of the e-cigarette price used. However, in a model without market fixed effects, cigarette prices were a statistically significant positive predictor of total e-cigarette use. Higher e-cigarette disposable prices appear to be associated with reduced e-cigarette use among adolescents in the US. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.
Multilevel Models for Intensive Longitudinal Data with Heterogeneous Autoregressive Errors: The Effect of Misspecification and Correction with Cholesky Transformation

PubMed Central

Jahng, Seungmin; Wood, Phillip K.

2017-01-01

Intensive longitudinal studies, such as ecological momentary assessment studies using electronic diaries, are gaining popularity across many areas of psychology. Multilevel models (MLMs) are most widely used analytical tools for intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Although ILD often have individually distinct patterns of serial correlation of measures over time, inferences of the fixed effects, and random components in MLMs are made under the assumption that all variance and autocovariance components are homogenous across individuals. In the present study, we introduced a multilevel model with Cholesky transformation to model ILD with individually heterogeneous covariance structure. In addition, the performance of the transformation method and the effects of misspecification of heterogeneous covariance structure were investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation. We found that, if individually heterogeneous covariances are incorrectly assumed as homogenous independent or homogenous autoregressive, MLMs produce highly biased estimates of the variance of random intercepts and the standard errors of the fixed intercept and the fixed effect of a level 2 covariate when the average autocorrelation is high. For intensive longitudinal data with individual specific residual covariance, the suggested transformation method showed lower bias in those estimates than the misspecified models when the number of repeated observations within individuals is 50 or more. PMID:28286490
Does Community Context Have an Important Impact on Divorce Risk? A Fixed-Effects Study of Twenty Norwegian First-Marriage Cohorts

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

The decision to divorce may be affected by the characteristics of the local community. Community characteristics may be barriers to divorce, or they may increase the attractiveness of divorcing (e.g., access to a good remarriage market), but our knowledge of such influences is sparse. This study examines two such community-level factors: socio-economic conditions and the local marriage market. In this study, discrete-time hazard models with community-level fixed effects are estimated using register-based data on Norwegian first marriages during the period from 1980 to 1999, with longitudinal information on both the community and couple levels (N = 283,493). The results show that there are important community-level influences on couples’ divorce risk, but these change dramatically when fixed effects are introduced. PMID:21350587
A Statistical Analysis of Induced Travel Effects in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-04-01

We investigate the hypothesis of induced travel demand. County level data from Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and Washington, DC are used to estimate "fixed-effects" cross-sectional time-series models that relate travel levels, measured as daily...
Effects of Class Size on Alternative Educational Outcomes across Disciplines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Dorothy A.

2011-01-01

This is the first study to use self-reported ratings of student learning, instructor recommendations, and course recommendations as the outcome measure to estimate class size effects, doing so across 24 disciplines. Fixed-effects models controlling for heterogeneous courses and instructors reveal that increasing enrollment has negative and…
Estimating Peer Effects in Sexual Behavior among Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ali, Mir M.; Dwyer, Debra S.

2011-01-01

In this paper we seek to empirically quantify the role of peer social networks in influencing sexual behavior among adolescents. Using data of a nationally representative sample of adolescents we utilize a multivariate structural model with school-level fixed effects to account for the problems of contextual effects, correlated effects and peer…
Sri Lankan FRAX model and country-specific intervention thresholds.

PubMed

Lekamwasam, Sarath

2013-01-01

There is a wide variation in fracture probabilities estimated by Asian FRAX models, although the outputs of South Asian models are concordant. Clinicians can choose either fixed or age-specific intervention thresholds when making treatment decisions in postmenopausal women. Cost-effectiveness of such approach, however, needs to be addressed. This study examined suitable fracture probability intervention thresholds (ITs) for Sri Lanka, based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model. Fracture probabilities were estimated using all Asian FRAX models for a postmenopausal woman of BMI 25 kg/m² and has no clinical risk factors apart from a fragility fracture, and they were compared. Age-specific ITs were estimated based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model using the method followed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group in the UK. Using the age-specific ITs as the reference standard, suitable fixed ITs were also estimated. Fracture probabilities estimated by different Asian FRAX models varied widely. Japanese and Taiwan models showed higher fracture probabilities while Chinese, Philippine, and Indonesian models gave lower fracture probabilities. Output of remaining FRAX models were generally similar. Age-specific ITs of major osteoporotic fracture probabilities (MOFP) based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model varied from 2.6 to 18% between 50 and 90 years. ITs of hip fracture probabilities (HFP) varied from 0.4 to 6.5% between 50 and 90 years. In finding fixed ITs, MOFP of 11% and HFP of 3.5% gave the lowest misclassification and highest agreement. Sri Lankan FRAX model behaves similar to other Asian FRAX models such as Indian, Singapore-Indian, Thai, and South Korean. Clinicians may use either the fixed or age-specific ITs in making therapeutic decisions in postmenopausal women. The economical aspects of such decisions, however, need to be considered.
Evaluating Specification Tests in the Context of Value-Added Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guarino, Cassandra M.; Reckase, Mark D.; Stacy, Brian W.; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.

2015-01-01

We study the properties of two specification tests that have been applied to a variety of estimators in the context of value-added measures (VAMs) of teacher and school quality: the Hausman test for choosing between student-level random and fixed effects, and a test for feedback (sometimes called a "falsification test"). We discuss…

Gender, "g", and Fixed versus Growth Intelligence Mindsets as Predictors of Self-Estimated Domain Masculine Intelligence (DMIQ)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Storek, Josephine; Furnham, Adrian

2013-01-01

Over 120 participants completed three timed intelligence tests, a self-estimated Domain Masculine (DMIQ) Intelligence scale, and a mindset "beliefs about intelligence" measure (Dweck, 2012) to examine correlates of the Hubris-Humility Effect (HHE) which shows males believe they are more intelligent than females. As predicted males gave…
Evaluating Specification Tests in the Context of Value-Added Estimation. Working Paper #38

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guarino, Cassandra M.; Reckase, Mark D.; Stacy, Brian W.; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.

2014-01-01

We study the properties of two specification tests that have been applied to a variety of estimators in the context of value-added measures (VAMs) of teacher and school quality: the Hausman test for choosing between random and fixed effects and a test for feedback (sometimes called a "falsification test"). We discuss theoretical…
Inferring genetic connectivity in real populations, exemplified by coastal and oceanic Atlantic cod.

PubMed

Spies, Ingrid; Hauser, Lorenz; Jorde, Per Erik; Knutsen, Halvor; Punt, André E; Rogers, Lauren A; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2018-05-08

Genetic data are commonly used to estimate connectivity between putative populations, but translating them to demographic dispersal rates is complicated. Theoretical equations that infer a migration rate based on the genetic estimator F ST , such as Wright's equation, F ST ≈ 1/(4 N e m + 1), make assumptions that do not apply to most real populations. How complexities inherent to real populations affect migration was exemplified by Atlantic cod in the North Sea and Skagerrak and was examined within an age-structured model that incorporated genetic markers. Migration was determined under various scenarios by varying the number of simulated migrants until the mean simulated level of genetic differentiation matched a fixed level of genetic differentiation equal to empirical estimates. Parameters that decreased the N e / N t ratio (where N e is the effective and N t is the total population size), such as high fishing mortality and high fishing gear selectivity, increased the number of migrants required to achieve empirical levels of genetic differentiation. Higher maturity-at-age and lower selectivity increased N e / N t and decreased migration when genetic differentiation was fixed. Changes in natural mortality, fishing gear selectivity, and maturity-at-age within expected limits had a moderate effect on migration when genetic differentiation was held constant. Changes in population size had the greatest effect on the number of migrants to achieve fixed levels of F ST , particularly when genetic differentiation was low, F ST ≈ 10 -3 Highly variable migration patterns, compared with constant migration, resulted in higher variance in genetic differentiation and higher extreme values. Results are compared with and provide insight into the use of theoretical equations to estimate migration among real populations. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
Mixed conditional logistic regression for habitat selection studies.

PubMed

Duchesne, Thierry; Fortin, Daniel; Courbin, Nicolas

2010-05-01

1. Resource selection functions (RSFs) are becoming a dominant tool in habitat selection studies. RSF coefficients can be estimated with unconditional (standard) and conditional logistic regressions. While the advantage of mixed-effects models is recognized for standard logistic regression, mixed conditional logistic regression remains largely overlooked in ecological studies. 2. We demonstrate the significance of mixed conditional logistic regression for habitat selection studies. First, we use spatially explicit models to illustrate how mixed-effects RSFs can be useful in the presence of inter-individual heterogeneity in selection and when the assumption of independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) is violated. The IIA hypothesis states that the strength of preference for habitat type A over habitat type B does not depend on the other habitat types also available. Secondly, we demonstrate the significance of mixed-effects models to evaluate habitat selection of free-ranging bison Bison bison. 3. When movement rules were homogeneous among individuals and the IIA assumption was respected, fixed-effects RSFs adequately described habitat selection by simulated animals. In situations violating the inter-individual homogeneity and IIA assumptions, however, RSFs were best estimated with mixed-effects regressions, and fixed-effects models could even provide faulty conclusions. 4. Mixed-effects models indicate that bison did not select farmlands, but exhibited strong inter-individual variations in their response to farmlands. Less than half of the bison preferred farmlands over forests. Conversely, the fixed-effect model simply suggested an overall selection for farmlands. 5. Conditional logistic regression is recognized as a powerful approach to evaluate habitat selection when resource availability changes. This regression is increasingly used in ecological studies, but almost exclusively in the context of fixed-effects models. Fitness maximization can imply differences in trade-offs among individuals, which can yield inter-individual differences in selection and lead to departure from IIA. These situations are best modelled with mixed-effects models. Mixed-effects conditional logistic regression should become a valuable tool for ecological research.
Liquidus slopes of impurities in ITS-90 fixed points from the mercury point to the copper point in the low concentration limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearce, Jonathan V.; Gisby, John A.; Steur, Peter P. M.

2016-08-01

A knowledge of the effect of impurities at the level of parts per million on the freezing temperature of very pure metals is essential for realisation of ITS-90 fixed points. New information has become available for use with the thermodynamic modelling software MTDATA, permitting calculation of liquidus slopes, in the low concentration limit, of a wider range of binary alloy systems than was previously possible. In total, calculated values for 536 binary systems are given. In addition, new experimental determinations of phase diagrams, in the low impurity concentration limit, have recently appeared. All available data have been combined to provide a comprehensive set of liquidus slopes for impurities in ITS-90 metal fixed points. In total, liquidus slopes for 838 systems are tabulated for the fixed points Hg, Ga, In, Sn, Zn, Al, Ag, Au, and Cu. It is shown that the value of the liquidus slope as a function of impurity element atomic number can be approximated using a simple formula, and good qualitative agreement with the existing data is observed for the fixed points Al, Ag, Au and Cu, but curiously the formula is not applicable to the fixed points Hg, Ga, In, Sn, and Zn. Some discussion is made concerning the influence of oxygen on the liquidus slopes, and some calculations using MTDATA are discussed. The BIPM’s consultative committee for thermometry has long recognised that the sum of individual estimates method is the ideal approach for assessing uncertainties due to impurities, but the community has been largely powerless to use the model due to lack of data. Here, not only is data provided, but a simple model is given to enable known thermophysical data to be used directly to estimate impurity effects for a large fraction of the ITS-90 fixed points.
Evaluation of Approaches to Deal with Low-Frequency Nuisance Covariates in Population Pharmacokinetic Analyses.

PubMed

Lagishetty, Chakradhar V; Duffull, Stephen B

2015-11-01

Clinical studies include occurrences of rare variables, like genotypes, which due to their frequency and strength render their effects difficult to estimate from a dataset. Variables that influence the estimated value of a model-based parameter are termed covariates. It is often difficult to determine if such an effect is significant, since type I error can be inflated when the covariate is rare. Their presence may have either an insubstantial effect on the parameters of interest, hence are ignorable, or conversely they may be influential and therefore non-ignorable. In the case that these covariate effects cannot be estimated due to power and are non-ignorable, then these are considered nuisance, in that they have to be considered but due to type 1 error are of limited interest. This study assesses methods of handling nuisance covariate effects. The specific objectives include (1) calibrating the frequency of a covariate that is associated with type 1 error inflation, (2) calibrating its strength that renders it non-ignorable and (3) evaluating methods for handling these non-ignorable covariates in a nonlinear mixed effects model setting. Type 1 error was determined for the Wald test. Methods considered for handling the nuisance covariate effects were case deletion, Box-Cox transformation and inclusion of a specific fixed effects parameter. Non-ignorable nuisance covariates were found to be effectively handled through addition of a fixed effect parameter.
Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in order to provide robust estimates of bias and precision for constructing confidence intervals for new patients. Assumptions of linearity and non-proportional bias should be assessed thoroughly.
Racial composition, unemployment, and crime: dealing with inconsistencies in panel designs.

PubMed

Worrall, John L

2008-09-01

Racial composition and unemployment have appeared as either theoretically-relevant controls or variables of substantive interest in numerous studies of crime. While there is no clear consensus in the literature as to their statistical significance, the lack of consensus has been most apparent in panel analyses with unit fixed effects. One explanation for this is that racial composition and unemployment are fairly invariant, or slow-moving, which leads to collinearity with unit dummies. A number of pertinent studies are reviewed to illustrate how two slow-moving variables, percent black and percent unemployed, have behaved inconsistently. A fixed effects vector decomposition procedure [Plumper, V., Troeger, V. E., 2007. Efficient estimation of time-invariant and rarely changing variables in finite sample panel analyses with unit fixed effects. Political Analysis, 15, 124-139.] is used to illustrate how these variables' coefficients appear positive and significant when the slow-moving process is accounted for.
Panel Estimates of Male-Female Earnings Functions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Moon-Kak; Polachek, Solomon W.

1994-01-01

Application of single and simultaneous equation fixed-effects and random-effects shows that earnings appreciation with experience and depreciation with labor market interruptions are comparable for men and women. Adjusting for heterogeneity reduces the wage gap to 20%; adjusting for endogeneity reduces it nearly to zero. (SK)
Using local multiplicity to improve effect estimation from a hypothesis-generating pharmacogenetics study.

PubMed

Zou, W; Ouyang, H

2016-02-01

We propose a multiple estimation adjustment (MEA) method to correct effect overestimation due to selection bias from a hypothesis-generating study (HGS) in pharmacogenetics. MEA uses a hierarchical Bayesian approach to model individual effect estimates from maximal likelihood estimation (MLE) in a region jointly and shrinks them toward the regional effect. Unlike many methods that model a fixed selection scheme, MEA capitalizes on local multiplicity independent of selection. We compared mean square errors (MSEs) in simulated HGSs from naive MLE, MEA and a conditional likelihood adjustment (CLA) method that model threshold selection bias. We observed that MEA effectively reduced MSE from MLE on null effects with or without selection, and had a clear advantage over CLA on extreme MLE estimates from null effects under lenient threshold selection in small samples, which are common among 'top' associations from a pharmacogenetics HGS.
Effects of Lugol's iodine solution and formalin on cell volume of three bloom-forming dinoflagellates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Sun, Xiaoxia; Zhao, Yongfang

2017-07-01

Fixatives are traditionally used in marine ecosystem research. The bias introduced by fixatives on the dimensions of plankton cells may lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the carbon biomass. To determine the impact of traditional fixatives on dinoflagellates during short- and long-term fixation, we analyzed the degree of change in three bloom-forming dinoflagellates ( Prorocentrum micans, Scrippsiella trochoidea and Noctiluca scintillans) brought about by Lugol's iodine solution (hereafter Lugol's) and formalin. The fixation effects were species-specific. P. micans cell volume showed no significant change following long-term preservation, and S. trochoidea swelled by approximately 8.06% in Lugol's and by 20.97% in formalin as a percentage of the live cell volume, respectively. N. scintillans shrank significantly in both fixatives. The volume change due to formalin in N. scintillans was not concentration-dependent, whereas the volume shrinkage of N. scintillans cells fixed with Lugol's at a concentration of 2% was nearly six-fold that in cells fixed with Lugol's at a concentration of 0.6%-0.8%. To better estimate the volume of N. scintillans fixed in formalin at a concentration of 5%, we suggest that the conversion relationship was as follows: volume of live cell=volume of intact fixed cell/0.61. Apart from size change, damage induced by fixatives on N. scintillans was obvious. Lugol's is not a suitable fixative for N. scintillans due to high frequency of broken cells. Accurate carbon biomass estimate of N. scintillans should be performed on live samples. These findings help to improve the estimate of phytoplankton cell volume and carbon biomass in marine ecosystem.
Occupational exposures to solvents and metals are associated with fixed airflow obstruction.

PubMed

Alif, Sheikh M; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Benke, Geza; Dennekamp, Martine; Burgess, John A; Perret, Jennifer L; Lodge, Caroline J; Morrison, Stephen; Johns, David P; Giles, Graham G; Gurrin, Lyle C; Thomas, Paul S; Hopper, John L; Wood-Baker, Richard; Thompson, Bruce R; Feather, Iain H; Vermeulen, Roel; Kromhout, Hans; Walters, E Haydn; Abramson, Michael J; Matheson, Melanie C

2017-11-01

Objectives This study investigated the associations between occupational exposures to solvents and metals and fixed airflow obstruction (AO) using post-bronchodilator spirometry. Methods We included 1335 participants from the 2002-2008 follow-up of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study. Ever-exposure and cumulative exposure-unit (EU) years were calculated using the ALOHA plus job exposure matrix (JEM). Fixed AO was defined as post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) <0.7 and FEV 1 /FVC
Veteran Status and Body Weight: A Longitudinal Fixed-Effects Approach

PubMed Central

Teachman, Jay

2014-01-01

About 10–12 % of young men (and increasingly, women) have served a term in the military. Yet, we know relatively little about the consequences of military service for the lives of those who serve. In this article, we provide estimates of the relationship between men’s peacetime military service during the all-volunteer era (AVE) and body weight using longitudinal data on 6,304 men taken from the National Longitudinal Survey of 1979 (NLSY-79). Using fixed-effects estimators on up to 13 years of data and numerous controls for time-varying life-course characteristics linked to body weight, we find that veterans of active-duty military service have higher levels of BMI and obesity. We argue that eating habits learned during service, coupled with patterns of physical activity, lead to a situation whereby veterans making the transition to less active civilian lifestyles gain weight that is not lost over time. PMID:25580045
Functional Mixed Effects Model for Small Area Estimation.

PubMed

Maiti, Tapabrata; Sinha, Samiran; Zhong, Ping-Shou

2016-09-01

Functional data analysis has become an important area of research due to its ability of handling high dimensional and complex data structures. However, the development is limited in the context of linear mixed effect models, and in particular, for small area estimation. The linear mixed effect models are the backbone of small area estimation. In this article, we consider area level data, and fit a varying coefficient linear mixed effect model where the varying coefficients are semi-parametrically modeled via B-splines. We propose a method of estimating the fixed effect parameters and consider prediction of random effects that can be implemented using a standard software. For measuring prediction uncertainties, we derive an analytical expression for the mean squared errors, and propose a method of estimating the mean squared errors. The procedure is illustrated via a real data example, and operating characteristics of the method are judged using finite sample simulation studies.
The Effect of the MassHealth Hospital Pay-for-Performance Program on Quality

PubMed Central

Ryan, Andrew M; Blustein, Jan

2011-01-01

Objective To test the effect of Massachusetts Medicaid's (MassHealth) hospital-based pay-for-performance (P4P) program, implemented in 2008, on quality of care for pneumonia and surgical infection prevention (SIP). Data Hospital Compare process of care quality data from 2004 to 2009 for acute care hospitals in Massachusetts (N = 62) and other states (N = 3,676) and American Hospital Association data on hospital characteristics from 2005. Study Design Panel data models with hospital fixed effects and hospital-specific trends are estimated to test the effect of P4P on composite quality for pneumonia and SIP. This base model is extended to control for the completeness of measure reporting. Further sensitivity checks include estimation with propensity-score matched control hospitals, excluding hospitals in other P4P programs, varying the time period during which the program was assumed to have an effect, and testing the program effect across hospital characteristics. Principal Findings Estimates from our preferred specification, including hospital fixed effects, trends, and the control for measure completeness, indicate small and nonsignificant program effects for pneumonia (−0.67 percentage points, p>.10) and SIP (−0.12 percentage points, p>.10). Sensitivity checks indicate a similar pattern of findings across specifications. Conclusions Despite offering substantial financial incentives, the MassHealth P4P program did not improve quality in the first years of implementation. PMID:21210796
Estimation of quantitative levels of diesel exhaust exposure and the health impact in the contemporary Australian mining industry.

PubMed

Peters, Susan; de Klerk, Nicholas; Reid, Alison; Fritschi, Lin; Musk, Aw Bill; Vermeulen, Roel

2017-03-01

To estimate quantitative levels of exposure to diesel exhaust expressed by elemental carbon (EC) in the contemporary mining industry and to describe the excess risk of lung cancer that may result from those levels. EC exposure has been monitored in Western Australian miners since 2003. Mixed-effects models were used to estimate EC levels for five surface and five underground occupation groups (as a fixed effect) and specific jobs within each group (as a random effect). Further fixed effects included sampling year and duration, and mineral mined. On the basis of published risk functions, we estimated excess lifetime risk of lung cancer mortality for several employment scenarios. Personal EC measurements (n=8614) were available for 146 different jobs at 124 mine sites. The mean estimated EC exposure level for surface occupations in 2011 was 14 µg/m 3 for 12 hour shifts. Levels for underground occupation groups ranged from 18 to 44 µg/m 3 . Underground diesel loader operators had the highest exposed specific job: 59 µg/m 3 . A lifetime career (45 years) as a surface worker or underground miner, experiencing exposure levels as estimated for 2011 (14 and 44 µg/m 3 EC), was associated with 5.5 and 38 extra lung cancer deaths per 1000 males, respectively. EC exposure levels in the contemporary Australian mining industry are still substantial, particularly for underground workers. The estimated excess numbers of lung cancer deaths associated with these exposures support the need for implementation of stringent occupational exposure limits for diesel exhaust. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Reporting Point and Interval Estimates of Effect-Size for Planned Contrasts: Fixed within Effect Analyses of Variance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robey, Randall R.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this tutorial is threefold: (a) review the state of statistical science regarding effect-sizes, (b) illustrate the importance of effect-sizes for interpreting findings in all forms of research and particularly for results of clinical-outcome research, and (c) demonstrate just how easily a criterion on reporting effect-sizes in…
Bearings Only Air-to-Air Ranging

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-07-25

directly in fiut of the observer whem first detected, more time will be needed for a good estimate. A sound uinp them is for the observer, having...altitude angle to provide an estimate of the z component. Moving targets commonly require some 60 seconds for good estimates of target location and...fixed target case, where a good strategy for the observer can be determined a priori, highly effective maneuvers for the observer in the case of a moving
Evaluation of Pistacia lentiscus seed oil and phenolic compounds for in vitro antiproliferative effects against BHK21 cells.

PubMed

Mezni, Faten; Shili, Sarra; Ben Ali, Nejia; Larbi Khouja, Mohamed; Khaldi, Abdelhamid; Maaroufi, Abderrazak

2016-01-01

Within the global context of increasing cancer diseases, natural products are important in devising new drugs and providing unique ideas in cancer therapy. In Tunisian folk medicine, Pistacia lentiscus L. (Anacardiaceae) fixed oil is used for cancer treatment. This investigation studied, for the first time, the antiproliferative effect of Pistacia lentiscus fixed oil and its phenolic extract on BHK21 cancer cells. Oil was extracted from fruits harvested in northwest Tunisia and the phenolic fraction was obtained by mixing with methanol. The anti-proliferative activity of the two tested substances on BHK 21 cells were investigated in vitro using trypan blue assays. Cells were treated with different concentrations of P. lentiscus oil (0.009, 0.018, 0.036, and 0.09 g/mL) and the phenolic extract (0.007, 0.014, 0.03, and 0.07 g/mL) for 24, 48, and 72 h. The inhibitory effect of Pistacia lentiscus fixed oil increases with the increase in dose. The IC50 value was estimated at 0.029 g/mL. The percentage of cell viability was 42.46 ± 3.4% at a dose of 0.09 g/mL and was significantly lower than that of the untreated control (96.24 ± 2.5%, p<0.01). The phenolic extract demonstrated a dose- and time-dependent inhibitory effect on BHK21 cell growth. After 48 h of incubation, the IC50 value was estimated at 0.15 g/mL. The results demonstrated the potential of Pistacia lentiscus fixed oil in treating cancer, as it is used in traditional medicine.
Quantifying Uncertainties in N2O Emission Due to N Fertilizer Application in Cultivated Areas

PubMed Central

Philibert, Aurore; Loyce, Chantal; Makowski, David

2012-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential approximately 298 times greater than that of CO2. In 2006, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated N2O emission due to synthetic and organic nitrogen (N) fertilization at 1% of applied N. We investigated the uncertainty on this estimated value, by fitting 13 different models to a published dataset including 985 N2O measurements. These models were characterized by (i) the presence or absence of the explanatory variable “applied N”, (ii) the function relating N2O emission to applied N (exponential or linear function), (iii) fixed or random background (i.e. in the absence of N application) N2O emission and (iv) fixed or random applied N effect. We calculated ranges of uncertainty on N2O emissions from a subset of these models, and compared them with the uncertainty ranges currently used in the IPCC-Tier 1 method. The exponential models outperformed the linear models, and models including one or two random effects outperformed those including fixed effects only. The use of an exponential function rather than a linear function has an important practical consequence: the emission factor is not constant and increases as a function of applied N. Emission factors estimated using the exponential function were lower than 1% when the amount of N applied was below 160 kg N ha−1. Our uncertainty analysis shows that the uncertainty range currently used by the IPCC-Tier 1 method could be reduced. PMID:23226430

Fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States, 1925-94

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-08-01

This volume presents estimates of fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States for 192594 that were prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It includes the investment series that were used to construct these estimates; for mo...
Results of a Markov model analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness of a single tablet of fixed-dose amlodipine and atorvastatin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Korea.

PubMed

Liew, Danny; Park, Hye-Jin; Ko, Su-Kyoung

2009-10-01

In Korea, the treatment of hypertension and dyslipidemia constitutes an important strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study sought to investigate the cost-effectiveness (from the Korean health care system perspective) of prescribing a proprietary formulation single-tablet fixed-dose combination of amlodipine and atorvastatin (at weighted mean doses of 5 mg and 10.25 mg, respectively) to all eligible patients aged > or = 45 years for the primary prevention of CVD (ie, coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke) in Korea, compared with currently observed patterns of blood-pressure and lipid-lowering medication prescription and use. A Markov model was developed with 4 health states: alive without CVD, alive with CVD, dead from CVD, and dead from non-CVD causes. The model population comprised 244 Koreans aged >/=45 years from the 2005 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHNES) without a history of myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke who met current criteria for both blood-pressure and lipid-lowering treatment. From a 2008 baseline, follow-up was simulated for 40 years. Cardiovascular risk was estimated for each subject individually using a multivariate, Asian population-specific equation, and updated with ongoing cycles. Decision analysis compared the effects of prescribing the fixed-dose combination to all subjects versus currently observed patterns of treatment. Data regarding the blood-pressure and lipid-lowering efficacies of combination therapy were drawn from the Respond trial. Costs of the fixed-dose combination tablet and CVD were sourced from pharmaceutical pricing lists and Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Services estimates, respectively. Utility values for CVD were obtained from a large Korean utility study. In the model, of the 244 treatment-eligible subjects, 126 (51.6%) and 13 (5.3%) were taking blood-pressure and lipid-lowering therapy, respectively. Use of single-tablet fixed-dose combination amlodipine and atorvastatin by all subjects was associated with estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 7,773,063 Korean won (KRW) per quality-adjusted life-year gained and 10,378,230 KRW per overall life-year gained (1300 KRW approximately US $1). Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses indicated these results to be robust. In this model, based on data from the 2005 KNHNES, hypertension and dyslipidemia were undertreated among Koreans aged > or = 45 years without a history of MI or stroke. The administration of single-tablet fixed-dose combination amlodipine and atorvastatin to all such individuals was likely to represent a cost-effective means of preventing first-onset CVD (ie, coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke) in this subgroup, compared with current patterns of treatment.
Production cost analysis of Euphorbia lathyris. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendel, D.A.; Schooley, F.A.; Dickenson, R.L.

1979-08-01

The purpose of SRI's study was to estimate the costs of producing Euphorbia in commercial quantities in five regions of the United States, which include both irrigated and nonirrigated areas. The study assumed that a uniform crop yield could be achieved in the five regions by varying the quantities of production inputs. Therefore, the production costs estimates, which are based on fourth quarter 1978 dollars, include both fixed and variable costs for each region. Doane's Machinery Custom Rates for 1978 were used to estimate all variable costs except materials, which were estimated separately. Custom rates are determined by members ofmore » the Doane Countywide Farm Panel, a group of farmers specifically selected to represent the various sizes and types of commercial farms found throughout the country. The rates reported are the most recent rates the panel members had either paid, charged, or known for certain a second party had paid or charged. Custom rates for any particular operation include equipment operating costs (fuel, lubrication, and repairs), equipment ownership costs (depreciation, taxes, interest), as well as a labor charge for the operator. Custom rates are regionally specific and thereby assist the accuracy of this analysis. Fixed costs include land, management, and transportation of the plant material to a conversion facility. When appropriate, fixed costs were regionally specific. Changes in total production costs over future time periods were not addressed. The total estimated production costs of Euphorbia in each region were compared with production costs for corn and alfalfa in the same regions. Finally, the effects on yield and costs of changes in the production inputs were estimated.« less
Robust Fault Detection Using Robust Z1 Estimation and Fuzzy Logic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, Tramone; Collins, Emmanuel G., Jr.; Selekwa, Majura; Guo, Ten-Huei (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This research considers the application of robust Z(sub 1), estimation in conjunction with fuzzy logic to robust fault detection for an aircraft fight control system. It begins with the development of robust Z(sub 1) estimators based on multiplier theory and then develops a fixed threshold approach to fault detection (FD). It then considers the use of fuzzy logic for robust residual evaluation and FD. Due to modeling errors and unmeasurable disturbances, it is difficult to distinguish between the effects of an actual fault and those caused by uncertainty and disturbance. Hence, it is the aim of a robust FD system to be sensitive to faults while remaining insensitive to uncertainty and disturbances. While fixed thresholds only allow a decision on whether a fault has or has not occurred, it is more valuable to have the residual evaluation lead to a conclusion related to the degree of, or probability of, a fault. Fuzzy logic is a viable means of determining the degree of a fault and allows the introduction of human observations that may not be incorporated in the rigorous threshold theory. Hence, fuzzy logic can provide a more reliable and informative fault detection process. Using an aircraft flight control system, the results of FD using robust Z(sub 1) estimation with a fixed threshold are demonstrated. FD that combines robust Z(sub 1) estimation and fuzzy logic is also demonstrated. It is seen that combining the robust estimator with fuzzy logic proves to be advantageous in increasing the sensitivity to smaller faults while remaining insensitive to uncertainty and disturbances.
Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Paratransit Systems : Volume 1. Executive Summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-09-01

Integrated Paratransit (IP) is a concept which involves the integration of conventional fixed-route transit with flexibly routed paratransit services to provide the most effective area-wide transit coverage. The report estimates the benefits and cost...
42 CFR 412.525 - Adjustments to the Federal prospective payment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... its estimated costs for a patient exceed the adjusted LTC-MS-DRG payment plus a fixed-loss amount. For...-DRG relative weights that are in effect at the start of the applicable long-term care hospital...
Improved performance of a digital phase-locked loop combined with a frequency/frequency-rate estimator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mileant, A.; Simon, M.

1986-01-01

When a digital phase-locked loop with a long loop update time tracks a signal with high Doppler, the demodualtion losses due to frequency mismatch can become very significant. One way of reducing these Doppler-related losses is to compensate for the Doppler effect using some kind of frequency-rate estimator. The performance of the fixed-window least-squares estimator and the Kalman filter is investigated; several Doppler compensating techniques are proposed. It is shown that the variance of the frequency estimator can be made as small as desired, and with this, the Doppler effect can be effectively compensated. The remaining demodulation losses due to phase jitter in the loop can be less than 0.1 dB.
Education and Entrepreneurship in Canada: Evidence from (Repeated) Cross-Sectional Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Masakure, Oliver

2015-01-01

This paper estimates the causal effect of education on entrepreneurship choice in Canada taking into account the endogeneity of education. The data come from the General and Social Surveys (2000-2009). We consider the effect of two extreme education levels: university and some/no education. Regressions are based on fixed effects with two-stage…
Where You Come from or Where You Go? Distinguishing between School Quality and the Effectiveness of Teacher Preparation Program Graduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mihaly, Kata; McCaffrey, Daniel; Sass, Tim R.; Lockwood, J. R.

2013-01-01

We consider the challenges and implications of controlling for school contextual bias when modeling teacher preparation program effects. Because teachers are not randomly distributed across schools, failing to account for contextual factors in achievement models could bias preparation program estimates. Including school fixed effects controls for…
Genetic analyses of stillbirth in relation to litter size using random regression models.

PubMed

Chen, C Y; Misztal, I; Tsuruta, S; Herring, W O; Holl, J; Culbertson, M

2010-12-01

Estimates of genetic parameters for number of stillborns (NSB) in relation to litter size (LS) were obtained with random regression models (RRM). Data were collected from 4 purebred Duroc nucleus farms between 2004 and 2008. Two data sets with 6,575 litters for the first parity (P1) and 6,259 litters for the second to fifth parity (P2-5) with a total of 8,217 and 5,066 animals in the pedigree were analyzed separately. Number of stillborns was studied as a trait on sow level. Fixed effects were contemporary groups (farm-year-season) and fixed cubic regression coefficients on LS with Legendre polynomials. Models for P2-5 included the fixed effect of parity. Random effects were additive genetic effects for both data sets with permanent environmental effects included for P2-5. Random effects modeled with Legendre polynomials (RRM-L), linear splines (RRM-S), and degree 0 B-splines (RRM-BS) with regressions on LS were used. For P1, the order of polynomial, the number of knots, and the number of intervals used for respective models were quadratic, 3, and 3, respectively. For P2-5, the same parameters were linear, 2, and 2, respectively. Heterogeneous residual variances were considered in the models. For P1, estimates of heritability were 12 to 15%, 5 to 6%, and 6 to 7% in LS 5, 9, and 13, respectively. For P2-5, estimates were 15 to 17%, 4 to 5%, and 4 to 6% in LS 6, 9, and 12, respectively. For P1, average estimates of genetic correlations between LS 5 to 9, 5 to 13, and 9 to 13 were 0.53, -0.29, and 0.65, respectively. For P2-5, same estimates averaged for RRM-L and RRM-S were 0.75, -0.21, and 0.50, respectively. For RRM-BS with 2 intervals, the correlation was 0.66 between LS 5 to 7 and 8 to 13. Parameters obtained by 3 RRM revealed the nonlinear relationship between additive genetic effect of NSB and the environmental deviation of LS. The negative correlations between the 2 extreme LS might possibly indicate different genetic bases on incidence of stillbirth.
Freeway travel time estimation using existing fixed traffic sensors : phase 2.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-03-01

Travel time, one of the most important freeway performance metrics, can be easily estimated using the : data collected from fixed traffic sensors, avoiding the need to install additional travel time data collectors. : This project is aimed at fully u...
Is It Just a Bad Class? Assessing the Stability of Measured Teacher Performance. CEDR Working Paper No. 2010-3.0

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Dan; Hansen, Michael

2010-01-01

Economic theory commonly models unobserved worker quality as a given parameter that is fixed over time, but empirical evidence supporting this assumption is sparse. In this paper we report on work estimating the stability of value-added estimates of teacher effects, an important area of investigation given that new workforce policies implicitly…
Analysis of the Effects of Fixed Costs on Learning Curve Calculations

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-09-01

Gansler, Jacques S . The Defense Industry. Cambridge MA: MIT Press, 1980. 11. Horngren , Charles T. and George Foster. Cost Accounting : A Managerial...Incorrect Total Cost Estimates and Comparison to Correct/Correct Total C o st E stim a te s ...7 1 12. Incorrect/Correct Total Cost Estimates and Comparison to Correct/Correct Total C o st E stim a te s
The Labor Market Returns to a For-Profit College Education. NBER Working Paper No. 18343

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cellini, Stephanie Riegg; Chaudhary, Latika

2012-01-01

A lengthy literature estimating the returns to education has largely ignored the for-profit sector. In this paper, we offer some of the first causal estimates of the earnings gains to for-profit colleges. We rely on restricted-use data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) to implement an individual fixed effects estimation…
Evaluation of aerial survey methods for Dall's sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Shults, Brad S.; Adams, Layne G.; Kleckner, Christopher

2006-01-01

Most Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) population-monitoring efforts use intensive aerial surveys with no attempt to estimate variance or adjust for potential sightability bias. We used radiocollared sheep to assess factors that could affect sightability of Dall's sheep in standard fixed-wing and helicopter surveys and to evaluate feasibility of methods that might account for sightability bias. Work was conducted in conjunction with annual aerial surveys of Dall's sheep in the western Baird Mountains, Alaska, USA, in 2000–2003. Overall sightability was relatively high compared with other aerial wildlife surveys, with 88% of the available, marked sheep detected in our fixed-wing surveys. Total counts from helicopter surveys were not consistently larger than counts from fixed-wing surveys of the same units, and detection probabilities did not differ for the 2 aircraft types. Our results suggest that total counts from helicopter surveys cannot be used to obtain reliable estimates of detection probabilities for fixed-wing surveys. Groups containing radiocollared sheep often changed in size and composition before they could be observed by a second crew in units that were double-surveyed. Double-observer methods that require determination of which groups were detected by each observer will be infeasible unless survey procedures can be modified so that groups remain more stable between observations. Mean group sizes increased during our study period, and our logistic regression sightability model indicated that detection probabilities increased with group size. Mark–resight estimates of annual population sizes were similar to sightability-model estimates, and confidence intervals overlapped broadly. We recommend the sightability-model approach as the most effective and feasible of the alternatives we considered for monitoring Dall's sheep populations.
The impact of macroeconomic conditions on obesity in Canada.

PubMed

Latif, Ehsan

2014-06-01

The paper used longitudinal Canadian data from the National Population Health Survey to estimate the impact of macroeconomic conditions measured by provincial unemployment rate on individual obesity and BMI. To control for individual-specific unobserved heterogeneity, the study utilized the conditional fixed effect logit and fixed effects models. The study found that unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on the probability of being severely obese. The study also found that unemployment rate significantly increased BMI. However, the study did not find any significant impact of unemployment rate on the probability of being overweight or obese. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Extended Mixed-Efects Item Response Models with the MH-RM Algorithm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chalmers, R. Philip

2015-01-01

A mixed-effects item response theory (IRT) model is presented as a logical extension of the generalized linear mixed-effects modeling approach to formulating explanatory IRT models. Fixed and random coefficients in the extended model are estimated using a Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro (MH-RM) stochastic imputation algorithm to accommodate for…
How Teacher Turnover Harms Student Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ronfeldt, Matthew; Loeb, Susanna; Wyckoff, James

2013-01-01

Researchers and policymakers often assume that teacher turnover harms student achievement, though recent studies suggest this may not be the case. Using a unique identification strategy that employs school-by-grade level turnover and two classes of fixed-effects models, this study estimates the effects of teacher turnover on over 850,000 New York…
Evaluating Exposure-Response Associations for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma with Varying Methods of Assigning Cumulative Benzene Exposure in the Shanghai Women's Health Study.

PubMed

Friesen, Melissa C; Bassig, Bryan A; Vermeulen, Roel; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Purdue, Mark P; Stewart, Patricia A; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Chow, Wong-Ho; Ji, Bu-Tian; Yang, Gong; Linet, Martha S; Hu, Wei; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Rothman, Nathaniel; Lan, Qing

2017-01-01

To provide insight into the contributions of exposure measurements to job exposure matrices (JEMs), we examined the robustness of an association between occupational benzene exposure and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) to varying exposure assessment methods. NHL risk was examined in a prospective population-based cohort of 73087 women in Shanghai. A mixed-effects model that combined a benzene JEM with >60000 short-term, area benzene inspection measurements was used to derive two sets of measurement-based benzene estimates: 'job/industry-specific' estimates (our presumed best approach) were derived from the model's fixed effects (year, JEM intensity rating) and random effects (occupation, industry); 'calibrated JEM' estimates were derived using only the fixed effects. 'Uncalibrated JEM' (using the ordinal JEM ratings) and exposure duration estimates were also calculated. Cumulative exposure for each subject was calculated for each approach based on varying exposure definitions defined using the JEM's probability ratings. We examined the agreement between the cumulative metrics and evaluated changes in the benzene-NHL associations. For our primary exposure definition, the job/industry-specific estimates were moderately to highly correlated with all other approaches (Pearson correlation 0.61-0.89; Spearman correlation > 0.99). All these metrics resulted in statistically significant exposure-response associations for NHL, with negligible gain in model fit from using measurement-based estimates. Using more sensitive or specific exposure definitions resulted in elevated but non-significant associations. The robust associations observed here with varying benzene assessment methods provide support for a benzene-NHL association. While incorporating exposure measurements did not improve model fit, the measurements allowed us to derive quantitative exposure-response curves. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2017.
Effect of food prices on the prevalence of obesity among young adults.

PubMed

Han, E; Powell, L M

2011-03-01

To examine the extent to which various food prices were associated with the obesity status of young adults. Retrospective cohort study of 6537 men and 5324 women in the USA using panel data from the Monitoring the Future Surveys (1992-2003), which were merged with two food-at-home and one food-away-from-home price measures from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association. Longitudinal individual random effect and fixed effect models were estimated. This study found that food prices did not have a significant effect on the prevalence of obesity among young female adults. For young adult men, an individual random effect estimator suggested that a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with a 13.2% decrease in the probability of obesity, but this effect lost its economic and statistical significance once individual fixed effects were controlled for in the estimation. Overall, the results imply that observed time-varying individual characteristics, such as working status, marital status and school enrolment status, may over-ride the effect of changes in food prices for young adults. More research employing longitudinal data is necessary to determine if food subsidies or taxes, particularly soft drink and fast food taxes or subsidies for fruit and vegetables, could be effective policy measures to curtail the increasing prevalence of obesity among young adults. Copyright © 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FISH BILIARY POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBON METABOLITES ESTIMATED BY FIXED-WAVELENGTH FLUORESCENCE: COMPARISON WITH HPLC-FLUORESCENT DETECTION

EPA Science Inventory

Fixed wavelength fluorescence (FF) was compared to high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection (HPLC-F) as an estimation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure to fish. Two excitation/emission wavelength pairs were used to measure naphthalene- an...
Effective diffusion coefficient including the Marangoni effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitahata, Hiroyuki; Yoshinaga, Natsuhiko

2018-04-01

Surface-active molecules supplied from a particle fixed at the water surface create a spatial gradient of the molecule concentration, resulting in Marangoni convection. Convective flow transports the molecules far from the particle, enhancing diffusion. We analytically derive the effective diffusion coefficient associated with the Marangoni convection rolls. The resulting estimated effective diffusion coefficient is consistent with our numerical results and the apparent diffusion coefficient measured in experiments.
Freeway travel time estimation using existing fixed traffic sensors : phase 1.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Freeway travel time is one of the most useful pieces of information for road users and an : important measure of effectiveness (MOE) for traffic engineers and policy makers. In the Greater : St. Louis area, Gateway Guide, the St. Louis Transportation...
The Dynamics of Natural Climatic Change

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-07-17

moraines which fix the position of ancient ice bodies to studies of fossil pol- len and plankton which provide panoramas of past continents and oceans... thermal and salinity estimates show a high positive correlation at mid- and high-latitude sites in the North Atlantic during the past 130,000 years...the thermal effect, these authors outline an alternate procedure for obtaining temperature estimates. When this alternat.i -e procedure was
Simulation of design-unbiased point-to-particle sampling compared to alternatives on plantation rows

Treesearch

Thomas B. Lynch; David Hamlin; Mark J. Ducey

2016-01-01

Total quantities of tree attributes can be estimatedÂ in plantations by sampling on plantation rows usingÂ several methods. At random sample points on a row,Â either fixed row lengths or variable row lengths with aÂ fixed number of sample trees can be assessed. Ratio ofÂ means or mean of ratios estimators can be developedÂ for the fixed number of trees option but are not...
Analyzing survival curves at a fixed point in time for paired and clustered right-censored data

PubMed Central

Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan; Lee, Chun-Yi; Shyr, Yu; Liao, Yi-De

2018-01-01

In clinical trials, information about certain time points may be of interest in making decisions about treatment effectiveness. Rather than comparing entire survival curves, researchers can focus on the comparison at fixed time points that may have a clinical utility for patients. For two independent samples of right-censored data, Klein et al. (2007) compared survival probabilities at a fixed time point by studying a number of tests based on some transformations of the Kaplan-Meier estimators of the survival function. However, to compare the survival probabilities at a fixed time point for paired right-censored data or clustered right-censored data, their approach would need to be modified. In this paper, we extend the statistics to accommodate the possible within-paired correlation and within-clustered correlation, respectively. We use simulation studies to present comparative results. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of these methods using two real data sets. PMID:29456280
A fixed false alarm probability figure of merit for gravitational wave detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wąs, M.; Kalmus, P.; Leong, J. R.; Adams, T.; Leroy, N.; Macleod, D. M.; Pankow, C.; Robinet, F.

2014-04-01

Performance of gravitational wave (GW) detectors can be characterized by several figures of merit (FOMs) which are used to guide the detector’s commissioning and operations, and to gauge astrophysical sensitivity. One key FOM is the range in Mpc, averaged over orientation and sky location, at which a GW signal from binary neutron star inspiral and coalescence would have a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 8 in a single detector. This fixed-SNR approach does not accurately reflect the effects of transient noise (glitches), which can severely limit the detectability of transient GW signals expected from a variety of astrophysical sources. We propose a FOM based instead on a fixed false-alarm probability (FAP). This is intended to give a more realistic estimate of the detectable GW transient range including the effect of glitches. Our approach applies equally to individual interferometers or a network of interferometers. We discuss the advantages of the fixed-FAP approach, present examples from a prototype implementation, and discuss the impact it has had on the recent commissioning of the GW detector GEO 600.
Tailoring treatment of haemophilia B: accounting for the distribution and clearance of standard and extended half-life FIX concentrates.

PubMed

Iorio, Alfonso; Fischer, Kathelijn; Blanchette, Victor; Rangarajan, Savita; Young, Guy; Morfini, Massimo

2017-06-02

The prophylactic administration of factor IX (FIX) is considered the most effective treatment for haemophilia B. The inter-individual variability and complexity of the pharmacokinetics (PK) of FIX, and the rarity of the disease have hampered identification of an optimal treatment regimens. The recent introduction of extended half-life recombinant FIX molecules (EHL-rFIX), has prompted a thorough reassessment of the clinical efficacy, PK and pharmacodynamics of plasma-derived and recombinant FIX. First, using longer sampling times and multi-compartmental PK models has led to more precise (and favourable) PK for FIX than was appreciated in the past. Second, investigating the distribution of FIX in the body beyond the vascular space (which is implied by its complex kinetics) has opened a new research field on the role for extravascular FIX. Third, measuring plasma levels of EHL-rFIX has shown that different aPTT reagents have different accuracy in measuring different FIX molecules. How will this new knowledge reflect on clinical practice? Clinical decision making in haemophilia B requires some caution and expertise. First, comparisons between different FIX molecules must be assessed taking into consideration the comparability of the populations studied and the PK models used. Second, individual PK estimates must rely on multi-compartmental models, and would benefit from adopting a population PK approach. Optimal sampling times need to be adapted to the prolonged half-life of the new EHL FIX products. Finally, costs considerations may apply, which is beyond the scope of this manuscript but might be deeply connected with the PK considerations discussed in this communication.
Well-being losses due to care-giving☆☆☆

PubMed Central

van den Berg, Bernard; Fiebig, Denzil G.; Hall, Jane

2014-01-01

This paper estimates the impact of informal caregiving on self-reported well-being. It uses a sample of 23,285 respondents of the first eleven waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA). We apply a relatively new analytical method that enables us to estimate fixed effects ordered logit to analyse subjective well-being. The econometric estimates show that providing informal care has a negative effect on subjective well-being. The empirical evidence of our paper could be helpful to inform policy makers to better understand the impact of caregiving and design the appropriate long term care policies and support services. PMID:24662888
Iterative Usage of Fixed and Random Effect Models for Powerful and Efficient Genome-Wide Association Studies

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaolei; Huang, Meng; Fan, Bin; Buckler, Edward S.; Zhang, Zhiwu

2016-01-01

False positives in a Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) can be effectively controlled by a fixed effect and random effect Mixed Linear Model (MLM) that incorporates population structure and kinship among individuals to adjust association tests on markers; however, the adjustment also compromises true positives. The modified MLM method, Multiple Loci Linear Mixed Model (MLMM), incorporates multiple markers simultaneously as covariates in a stepwise MLM to partially remove the confounding between testing markers and kinship. To completely eliminate the confounding, we divided MLMM into two parts: Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and a Random Effect Model (REM) and use them iteratively. FEM contains testing markers, one at a time, and multiple associated markers as covariates to control false positives. To avoid model over-fitting problem in FEM, the associated markers are estimated in REM by using them to define kinship. The P values of testing markers and the associated markers are unified at each iteration. We named the new method as Fixed and random model Circulating Probability Unification (FarmCPU). Both real and simulated data analyses demonstrated that FarmCPU improves statistical power compared to current methods. Additional benefits include an efficient computing time that is linear to both number of individuals and number of markers. Now, a dataset with half million individuals and half million markers can be analyzed within three days. PMID:26828793
Health Selection and the Process of Social Stratification: The Effect of Childhood Health on Socioeconomic Attainment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haas, Steven A.

2006-01-01

This study investigates whether childhood health acts as a mechanism through which socioeconomic status is transferred across generations. The study uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to track siblings and to estimate fixed-effects models that account for unobserved heterogeneity at the family level. The results demonstrate that…
How Teacher Turnover Harms Student Achievement. NBER Working Paper No. 17176

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ronfeldt, Matthew; Lankford, Hamilton; Loeb, Susanna; Wyckoff, James

2011-01-01

Researchers and policymakers often assume that teacher turnover harms student achievement, but recent evidence calls into question this assumption. Using a unique identification strategy that employs grade-level turnover and two classes of fixed-effects models, this study estimates the effects of teacher turnover on over 600,000 New York City 4th…
Minimum Wages and School Enrollment of Teenagers: A Look at the 1990's.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chaplin, Duncan D.; Turner, Mark D.; Pape, Andreas, D.

2003-01-01

Estimates the effects of higher minimum wages on school enrollment using the Common Core of Data. Controlling for local labor market conditions and state and year fixed effects, finds some evidence that higher minimum wages reduce teen school enrollment in states where students drop out before age 18. (23 references) (Author/PKP)
Using Sibling Samples To Assess the Effect of Childhood Family Income on Completed Schooling. JCPR Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Dan; Duncan, Greg J.

This study assessed the impact of family childhood income on completed years of schooling using fixed effects techniques to eliminate biases associated with omission of unmeasured family characteristics. It also examined the importance of timing of family income, estimating models that related years of completed schooling to average levels of…
The Random-Threshold Generalized Unfolding Model and Its Application of Computerized Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Wen-Chung; Liu, Chen-Wei; Wu, Shiu-Lien

2013-01-01

The random-threshold generalized unfolding model (RTGUM) was developed by treating the thresholds in the generalized unfolding model as random effects rather than fixed effects to account for the subjective nature of the selection of categories in Likert items. The parameters of the new model can be estimated with the JAGS (Just Another Gibbs…
Influence of the Redundant Verification and the Non-Redundant Verification on the Hydraulic Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, T. B.; Chen, Y. L.; Lin, H. R.; Huang, S. Y.; Yeh, T. C. J.; Wen, J. C.

2016-12-01

In the groundwater study, it estimated the heterogeneous spatial distribution of hydraulic Properties, there were many scholars use to hydraulic tomography (HT) from field site pumping tests to estimate inverse of heterogeneous spatial distribution of hydraulic Properties, to prove the most of most field site aquifer was heterogeneous hydrogeological parameters spatial distribution field. Many scholars had proposed a method of hydraulic tomography to estimate heterogeneous spatial distribution of hydraulic Properties of aquifer, the Huang et al. [2011] was used the non-redundant verification analysis of pumping wells changed, observation wells fixed on the inverse and the forward, to reflect the feasibility of the heterogeneous spatial distribution of hydraulic Properties of field site aquifer of the non-redundant verification analysis on steady-state model.From post literature, finding only in steady state, non-redundant verification analysis of pumping well changed location and observation wells fixed location for inverse and forward. But the studies had not yet pumping wells fixed or changed location, and observation wells fixed location for redundant verification or observation wells change location for non-redundant verification of the various combinations may to explore of influences of hydraulic tomography method. In this study, it carried out redundant verification method and non-redundant verification method for forward to influences of hydraulic tomography method in transient. And it discuss above mentioned in NYUST campus sites the actual case, to prove the effectiveness of hydraulic tomography methods, and confirmed the feasibility on inverse and forward analysis from analysis results.Keywords: Hydraulic Tomography, Redundant Verification, Heterogeneous, Inverse, Forward
Output Feedback Distributed Containment Control for High-Order Nonlinear Multiagent Systems.

PubMed

Li, Yafeng; Hua, Changchun; Wu, Shuangshuang; Guan, Xinping

2017-01-31

In this paper, we study the problem of output feedback distributed containment control for a class of high-order nonlinear multiagent systems under a fixed undirected graph and a fixed directed graph, respectively. Only the output signals of the systems can be measured. The novel reduced order dynamic gain observer is constructed to estimate the unmeasured state variables of the system with the less conservative condition on nonlinear terms than traditional Lipschitz one. Via the backstepping method, output feedback distributed nonlinear controllers for the followers are designed. By means of the novel first virtual controllers, we separate the estimated state variables of different agents from each other. Consequently, the designed controllers show independence on the estimated state variables of neighbors except outputs information, and the dynamics of each agent can be greatly different, which make the design method have a wider class of applications. Finally, a numerical simulation is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Estimating Causal Effects from Family Planning Health Communication Campaigns Using Panel Data: The “Your Health, Your Wealth” Campaign in Egypt

PubMed Central

Hutchinson, Paul L.; Meekers, Dominique

2012-01-01

Background Health communication campaigns – involving mass media and interpersonal communication - have long been utilized by national family planning programs to create awareness about contraceptive methods, to shift social norms related to fertility control, and to promote specific behaviors, such as the use of condoms, injectable methods or permanent sterilization. However, demonstrating the effectiveness of these campaigns is often complicated because the infeasibility of experimental designs generally yields statistically non-equivalent samples of campaign-exposed and unexposed individuals. Methods Using data from a panel survey of reproductive age women in Egypt, we estimate the effects of the multimedia health communication campaign “Your Health, Your Wealth” (“Sahatek Sarwetek”) on precursors to contraceptive use (e.g., spousal communication, birth spacing attitudes) and on modern contraceptive use. Difference-in-differences and fixed effects estimators that exploit the panel nature of the data are employed to control for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the sample of women who self-report recall of the messages, thereby potentially improving upon methods that make no such controls or that rely solely on cross-sectional data. Findings All of the estimators find positive effects of the “Your Health, Your Wealth” campaign on reproductive health outcomes, though the magnitudes of those effects diverge, often considerably. Difference-in-differences estimators find that exposure to the campaign increases the likelihood of spousal discussions by 14.4 percentage points (pp.) (SE = .039, p<0.001) but has no effect on contraceptive use. In contrast, the fixed effects, instrumental variables estimator, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, finds a large, statistically significant effect on modern contraceptive use (27.4 pp., SE = 0.135, p = 0.043). Conclusions The difficulties of evaluating family planning communication programs may be surmountable using panel data and analytic methods that address both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in exposure. Not controlling for such effects may lead to substantial underestimates of the effectiveness of such campaigns. PMID:23049961
Student Transience in North Carolina: The Effect of School Mobility on Student Outcomes Using Longitudinal Data. Working Paper 22

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xu, Zeyu; Hannaway, Jane; D'Souza, Stephanie

2009-01-01

This paper describes the school mobility rates for elementary and middle school students in North Carolina and attempts to estimate the effect of school mobility on the performance of different groups of students using student fixed effects models. School mobility is defined as changing schools at times that are non-promotional (e.g., moving…
Sedation-analgesia with propofol and remifentanil: concentrations required to avoid gag reflex in upper gastrointestinal endoscopy.

PubMed

Borrat, Xavier; Valencia, José Fernando; Magrans, Rudys; Gimenez-Mila, Marc; Mellado, Ricard; Sendino, Oriol; Perez, Maria; Nunez, Matilde; Jospin, Mathieu; Jensen, Erik Weber; Troconiz, Inaki; Gambus, Pedro L

2015-07-01

The purpose of this study was to identify optimal target propofol and remifentanil concentrations to avoid a gag reflex in response to insertion of an upper gastrointestinal endoscope. Patients presenting for endoscopy received target-controlled infusions (TCI) of both propofol and remifentanil for sedation-analgesia. Patients were randomized to 4 groups of fixed target effect-site concentrations: remifentanil 1 ng•mL (REMI 1) or 2 ng•mL (REMI 2) and propofol 2 μg•mL (PROP 2) or 3 μg•mL (PROP 3). For each group, the other drug (propofol for the REMI groups and vice versa) was increased or decreased using the "up-down" method based on the presence or absence of a gag response in the previous patient. A modified isotonic regression method was used to estimate the median effective Ce,50 from the up-down method in each group. A concentration-effect (sigmoid Emax) model was built to estimate the corresponding Ce,90 for each group. These data were used to estimate propofol bolus doses and remifentanil infusion rates that would achieve effect-site concentrations between Ce,50 and Ce,90 when a TCI system is not available for use. One hundred twenty-four patients were analyzed. To achieve between a 50% and 90% probability of no gag response, propofol TCIs were between 2.40 and 4.23 μg•mL (that could be achieved with a bolus of 1 mg•kg) when remifentanil TCI was fixed at 1 ng•mL, and target propofol TCIs were between 2.15 and 2.88 μg•mL (that could be achieved with a bolus of 0.75 mg•kg) when remifentanil TCI was fixed at 2 ng•mL. Remifentanil ranges were 1.00 to 4.79 ng•mL and 0.72 to 3.19 ng•mL when propofol was fixed at 2 and 3 μg•mL, respectively. We identified a set of propofol and remifentanil TCIs that blocked the gag response to endoscope insertion in patients undergoing endoscopy. Propofol bolus doses and remifentanil infusion rates designed to achieve similar effect-site concentrations can be used to prevent gag response when TCI is not available.

Validation of test-day models for genetic evaluation of dairy goats in Norway.

PubMed

Andonov, S; Ødegård, J; Boman, I A; Svendsen, M; Holme, I J; Adnøy, T; Vukovic, V; Klemetsdal, G

2007-10-01

Test-day data for daily milk yield and fat, protein, and lactose content were sampled from the years 1988 to 2003 in 17 flocks belonging to 2 genetically well-tied buck circles. In total, records from 2,111 to 2,215 goats for content traits and 2,371 goats for daily milk yield were included in the analysis, averaging 2.6 and 4.8 observations per goat for the 2 groups of traits, respectively. The data were analyzed by using 4 test-day models with different modeling of fixed effects. Model [0] (the reference model) contained a fixed effect of year-season of kidding with regression on Ali-Schaeffer polynomials nested within the year-season classes, and a random effect of flock test-day. In model [1], the lactation curve effect from model [0] was replaced by a fixed effect of days in milk (in 3-d periods), the same for all year-seasons of kidding. Models [2] and [3] were obtained from model [1] by removing the fixed year-season of kidding effect and considering the flock test-day effect as either fixed or random, respectively. The models were compared by using 2 criteria: mean-squared error of prediction and a test of bias affecting the genetic trend. The first criterion indicated a preference for model [3], whereas the second criterion preferred model [1]. Mean-squared error of prediction is based on model fit, whereas the second criterion tests the ability of the model to produce unbiased genetic evaluation (i.e., its capability of separating environmental and genetic time trends). Thus, a fixed structure with year (year, year-season, or possibly flock-year) was indicated to appropriately separate time trends. Heritability estimates for daily milk yield and milk content were 0.26 and 0.24 to 0.27, respectively.
Estimation of genetic effects in the presence of multicollinearity in multibreed beef cattle evaluation.

PubMed

Roso, V M; Schenkel, F S; Miller, S P; Schaeffer, L R

2005-08-01

Breed additive, dominance, and epistatic loss effects are of concern in the genetic evaluation of a multibreed population. Multiple regression equations used for fitting these effects may show a high degree of multicollinearity among predictor variables. Typically, when strong linear relationships exist, the regression coefficients have large SE and are sensitive to changes in the data file and to the addition or deletion of variables in the model. Generalized ridge regression methods were applied to obtain stable estimates of direct and maternal breed additive, dominance, and epistatic loss effects in the presence of multicollinearity among predictor variables. Preweaning weight gains of beef calves in Ontario, Canada, from 1986 to 1999 were analyzed. The genetic model included fixed direct and maternal breed additive, dominance, and epistatic loss effects, fixed environmental effects of age of the calf, contemporary group, and age of the dam x sex of the calf, random additive direct and maternal genetic effects, and random maternal permanent environment effect. The degree and the nature of the multicollinearity were identified and ridge regression methods were used as an alternative to ordinary least squares (LS). Ridge parameters were obtained using two different objective methods: 1) generalized ridge estimator of Hoerl and Kennard (R1); and 2) bootstrap in combination with cross-validation (R2). Both ridge regression methods outperformed the LS estimator with respect to mean squared error of predictions (MSEP) and variance inflation factors (VIF) computed over 100 bootstrap samples. The MSEP of R1 and R2 were similar, and they were 3% less than the MSEP of LS. The average VIF of LS, R1, and R2 were equal to 26.81, 6.10, and 4.18, respectively. Ridge regression methods were particularly effective in decreasing the multicollinearity involving predictor variables of breed additive effects. Because of a high degree of confounding between estimates of maternal dominance and direct epistatic loss effects, it was not possible to compare the relative importance of these effects with a high level of confidence. The inclusion of epistatic loss effects in the additive-dominance model did not cause noticeable reranking of sires, dams, and calves based on across-breed EBV. More precise estimates of breed effects as a result of this study may result in more stable across-breed estimated breeding values over the years.
Blending Multiple Nitrogen Dioxide Data Sources for Neighborhood Estimates of Long-Term Exposure for Health Research.

PubMed

Hanigan, Ivan C; Williamson, Grant J; Knibbs, Luke D; Horsley, Joshua; Rolfe, Margaret I; Cope, Martin; Barnett, Adrian G; Cowie, Christine T; Heyworth, Jane S; Serre, Marc L; Jalaludin, Bin; Morgan, Geoffrey G

2017-11-07

Exposure to traffic related nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) air pollution is associated with adverse health outcomes. Average pollutant concentrations for fixed monitoring sites are often used to estimate exposures for health studies, however these can be imprecise due to difficulty and cost of spatial modeling at the resolution of neighborhoods (e.g., a scale of tens of meters) rather than at a coarse scale (around several kilometers). The objective of this study was to derive improved estimates of neighborhood NO 2 concentrations by blending measurements with modeled predictions in Sydney, Australia (a low pollution environment). We implemented the Bayesian maximum entropy approach to blend data with uncertainty defined using informative priors. We compiled NO 2 data from fixed-site monitors, chemical transport models, and satellite-based land use regression models to estimate neighborhood annual average NO 2 . The spatial model produced a posterior probability density function of estimated annual average concentrations that spanned an order of magnitude from 3 to 35 ppb. Validation using independent data showed improvement, with root mean squared error improvement of 6% compared with the land use regression model and 16% over the chemical transport model. These estimates will be used in studies of health effects and should minimize misclassification bias.
The Effects of Diagnostic Definitions in Claims Data on Healthcare Cost Estimates: Evidence from a Large-Scale Panel Data Analysis of Diabetes Care in Japan.

PubMed

Fukuda, Haruhisa; Ikeda, Shunya; Shiroiwa, Takeru; Fukuda, Takashi

2016-10-01

Inaccurate estimates of diabetes-related healthcare costs can undermine the efficiency of resource allocation for diabetes care. The quantification of these costs using claims data may be affected by the method for defining diagnoses. The aims were to use panel data analysis to estimate diabetes-related healthcare costs and to comparatively evaluate the effects of diagnostic definitions on cost estimates. Monthly panel data analysis of Japanese claims data. The study included a maximum of 141,673 patients with type 2 diabetes who received treatment between 2005 and 2013. Additional healthcare costs associated with diabetes and diabetes-related complications were estimated for various diagnostic definition methods using fixed-effects panel data regression models. The average follow-up period per patient ranged from 49.4 to 52.3 months. The number of patients identified as having type 2 diabetes varied widely among the diagnostic definition methods, ranging from 14,743 patients to 141,673 patients. The fixed-effects models showed that the additional costs per patient per month associated with diabetes ranged from US$180 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 178-181] to US$223 (95 % CI 221-224). When the diagnostic definition excluded rule-out diagnoses, the diabetes-related complications associated with higher additional healthcare costs were ischemic heart disease with surgery (US$13,595; 95 % CI 13,568-13,622), neuropathy/extremity disease with surgery (US$4594; 95 % CI 3979-5208), and diabetic nephropathy with dialysis (US$3689; 95 % CI 3667-3711). Diabetes-related healthcare costs are sensitive to diagnostic definition methods. Determining appropriate diagnostic definitions can further advance healthcare cost research for diabetes and its applications in healthcare policies.
Multilevel modeling of single-case data: A comparison of maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation.

PubMed

Moeyaert, Mariola; Rindskopf, David; Onghena, Patrick; Van den Noortgate, Wim

2017-12-01

The focus of this article is to describe Bayesian estimation, including construction of prior distributions, and to compare parameter recovery under the Bayesian framework (using weakly informative priors) and the maximum likelihood (ML) framework in the context of multilevel modeling of single-case experimental data. Bayesian estimation results were found similar to ML estimation results in terms of the treatment effect estimates, regardless of the functional form and degree of information included in the prior specification in the Bayesian framework. In terms of the variance component estimates, both the ML and Bayesian estimation procedures result in biased and less precise variance estimates when the number of participants is small (i.e., 3). By increasing the number of participants to 5 or 7, the relative bias is close to 5% and more precise estimates are obtained for all approaches, except for the inverse-Wishart prior using the identity matrix. When a more informative prior was added, more precise estimates for the fixed effects and random effects were obtained, even when only 3 participants were included. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
The Effect on Treatment Adherence of Administering Drugs as Fixed-Dose Combinations versus as Separate Pills: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

van Galen, Katy A; Nellen, Jeannine F; Nieuwkerk, Pythia T

2014-01-01

Administering drugs as fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) versus the same active drugs administered as separate pills is assumed to enhance treatment adherence. We synthesized evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) about the effect of FDCs versus separate pills on adherence. We searched PubMed for RCTs comparing a FDC with the same active drugs administered as separate pills, including a quantitative estimate of treatment adherence, without restriction to medical condition. The odds ratio (OR) of optimal adherence with FDCs versus separate pills was used as common effect size and aggregated into a pooled effect estimate using a random effect model with inverse variance weights. Out of 1258 articles screened, only six studies fulfilled inclusion criteria. Across medical conditions, administering drugs as FDC significantly increased the likelihood of optimal adherence (OR 1.33 (95% CI, 1.03-1.71)). Within subgroups of specific medical conditions, the favourable effect of FDCs on adherence was of borderline statistical significance for HIV infection only (OR 1.46 (95% CI, 1.00-2.13)). We observed a remarkable paucity of RCTs comparing the effect on adherence of administering drugs as FDC versus as separate pills. Administering drugs as FDC improved medication adherence. However, this conclusion is based on a limited number of RCTs only.
Donation return time at fixed and mobile donation sites

PubMed Central

Carey, Patricia M.; High, Patrick M.; Schlumpf, Karen S.; Johnson, Bryce R.; Mast, Alan E.; Rios, Jorge A.; Simon, Toby L.; Wilkinson, Susan L.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND This study investigated the effect of blood donation environment, fixed or mobile with differing sponsor types, on donation return time. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS Data from 2006 through 2009 at six US blood centers participating in the Retrovirus Epidemiology Donor Study-II (REDS-II) were used for analysis. Descriptive statistics stratified by whole blood (WB), plateletpheresis (PP), and double red blood cell (R2) donations were obtained for fixed and mobile locations, including median number of donations and median interdonation interval. A survival analysis estimated median return time at fixed and mobile sites, while controlling for censored return times, demographics, blood center, and mandatory recovery times. RESULTS Two-thirds (67.9%) of WB donations were made at mobile sites, 97.4% of PP donations were made at fixed sites, and R2 donations were equally distributed between fixed and mobile locations. For donations at fixed sites only or alternating between fixed and mobile sites, the highest median numbers of donations were nine and eight, respectively, and the shortest model-adjusted median return times (controlling for mandatory eligibility times of 56 and 112 days) were 36 and 30 days for WB and R2 donations, respectively. For PP donations, the shortest model-adjusted median return time was 23 days at a fixed location and the longest was 693 days at community locations. CONCLUSION WB, PP, and R2 donors with the shortest time between donations were associated with fixed locations and those alternating between fixed and mobile locations, even after controlling for differing mandatory recovery times for the different blood donation procedures. PMID:21745215
Is Exposure to Income Inequality a Public Health Concern? Lagged Effects of Income Inequality on Individual and Population Health

PubMed Central

Mellor, Jennifer M; Milyo, Jeffrey

2003-01-01

Objective To examine the health consequences of exposure to income inequality. Data Sources Secondary analysis employing data from several publicly available sources. Measures of individual health status and other individual characteristics are obtained from the March Current Population Survey (CPS). State-level income inequality is measured by the Gini coefficient based on family income, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and Al-Samarrie and Miller (1967). State-level mortality rates are from the Vital Statistics of the United States; other state-level characteristics are from U.S. census data as reported in the Statistical Abstract of the United States. Study Design We examine the effects of state-level income inequality lagged from 5 to 29 years on individual health by estimating probit models of poor/fair health status for samples of adults aged 25–74 in the 1995 through 1999 March CPS. We control for several individual characteristics, including educational attainment and household income, as well as regional fixed effects. We use multivariate regression to estimate the effects of income inequality lagged 10 and 20 years on state-level mortality rates for 1990, 1980, 1970, and 1960. Principal Findings Lagged income inequality is not significantly associated with individual health status after controlling for regional fixed effects. Lagged income inequality is not associated with all cause mortality, but associated with reduced mortality from cardiovascular disease and malignant neoplasms, after controlling for state fixed-effects. Conclusions In contrast to previous studies that fail to control for regional variations in health outcomes, we find little support for the contention that exposure to income inequality is detrimental to either individual or population health. PMID:12650385
Does Cultural Capital Really Affect Academic Achievement? New Evidence from Combined Sibling and Panel Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaeger, Mads Meier

2011-01-01

This article provides new estimates of the causal effect of cultural capital on academic achievement. The author analyzes data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth--Children and Young Adults and uses a fixed effect design to address the problem of omitted variable bias, which has resulted in too optimistic results in previous research.…
The Effects of Student Demographics and School Resources on California School Performance Gain: A Fixed Effects Panel Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Mei-Jiun

2013-01-01

Background/Context: Recently emerged with the implementation of the California's Public Schools Accountability Act of 1999 and the NCLB Act of 2001 is an increase in the number of education production function studies estimating the relationship between educational inputs and APIs. While the majority of past research on California school…
Differences in Student Evaluations of Principles and Other Economics Courses and The Allocation of Faculty across Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ragan, James F., Jr.; Walia, Bhavneet

2010-01-01

The authors analyze 19 semesters of student evaluations at Kansas State University. Faculty member fixed effects are sizable and indicate that among faculty members who teach both types of courses, the best principles teachers also tend to be the best nonprinciples teachers. Estimates that ignore faculty effects are biased because principles…
On fixed-area plot sampling for downed coarse woody debris

Treesearch

Jeffrey H. Gove; Paul C. Van Deusen

2011-01-01

The use of fixed-area plots for sampling down coarse woody debris is reviewed. A set of clearly defined protocols for two previously described methods is established and a new method, which we call the 'sausage' method, is developed. All methods (protocols) are shown to be unbiased for volume estimation, but not necessarily for estimation of population...
Impact of pharmacy benefit design on prescription drug utilization: a fixed effects analysis of plan sponsor data.

PubMed

Roebuck, M Christopher; Liberman, Joshua N

2009-06-01

To study the impact of various elements of pharmacy benefit design on both the absolute and relative utilization of generics, brands, retail pharmacy, and mail service. Panel data on 1,074 plan sponsors covering 21.6 million individuals over 12 calendar quarters (2005-2007). A retrospective analysis of pharmacy claims. To control for potential endogeneity, linear fixed effects models were estimated for each of six dependent variables: the generic utilization rate, the brand utilization rate, the generic dispensing rate (GDR), the retail pharmacy utilization rate, the mail service utilization rate, and the mail distribution rate. Most member cost-share variables were nonlinearly associated with changes in prescription drug utilization. Marginal effects were generally greater in magnitude for brand out-of-pocket costs than for generic out-of-pocket costs. Time dummies, as well as other pharmacy benefit design elements, also yielded significant results. Prior estimates of the effect of member cost sharing on prescription drug utilization may be biased if complex benefit designs, mail service fulfillment, and unmeasured factors such as pharmaceutical pipelines are not accounted for. Commonly cited relative utilization metrics, such as GDR, may be misleading if not examined alongside absolute prescription drug utilization.
Research requirements to improve safety of civil helicopters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waters, K. T.

1977-01-01

Helicopter and fixed-wing accident data were reviewed and major accident causal factors were established. The impact of accidents on insurance rates was examined and the differences in fixed-wing and helicopter accident costs discussed. The state of the art in civil helicopter safety was compared to military helicopters. Goals were established based on incorporation of known technology and achievable improvements that require development, as well as administrative-type changes such as the impact of improved operational planning, training, and human factors effects. Specific R and D recommendations are provided with an estimation of the payoffs, timing, and development costs.
Use of Midlevel Practitioners to Achieve Labor Cost Savings in the Primary Care Practice of an MCO

PubMed Central

Roblin, Douglas W; Howard, David H; Becker, Edmund R; Kathleen Adams, E; Roberts, Melissa H

2004-01-01

Objective To estimate the savings in labor costs per primary care visit that might be realized from increased use of physician assistants (PAs) and nurse practitioners (NPs) in the primary care practices of a managed care organization (MCO). Study Setting/Data Sources Twenty-six capitated primary care practices of a group model MCO. Data on approximately two million visits provided by 206 practitioners were extracted from computerized visit records for 1997–2000. Computerized payroll ledgers were the source of annual labor costs per practice from 1997–2000. Study Design Likelihood of a visit attended by a PA/NP versus MD was modeled using logistic regression, with practice fixed effects, by department (adult medicine, pediatrics) and year. Parameter estimates and practice fixed effects from these regressions were used to predict the proportion of PA/NP visits per practice per year given a standard case mix. Least squares regressions, with practice fixed effects, were used to estimate the association of this standardized predicted proportion of PA/NP visits with average annual practitioner and total labor costs per visit, controlling for other practice characteristics. Results On average, PAs/NPs attended one in three adult medicine visits and one in five pediatric medicine visits. Likelihood of a PA/NP visit was significantly higher than average among patients presenting with minor acute illness (e.g., acute pharyngitis). In adult medicine, likelihood of a PA/NP visit was lower than average among older patients. Practitioner labor costs per visit and total labor costs per visit were lower (p<.01 and p=.08, respectively) among practices with greater use of PAs/NPs, standardized for case mix. Conclusions Primary care practices that used more PAs/NPs in care delivery realized lower practitioner labor costs per visit than practices that used less. Future research should investigate the cost savings and cost-effectiveness potential of delivery designs that change staffing mix and division of labor among clinical disciplines. PMID:15149481
Multiple imputation methods for bivariate outcomes in cluster randomised trials.

PubMed

DiazOrdaz, K; Kenward, M G; Gomes, M; Grieve, R

2016-09-10

Missing observations are common in cluster randomised trials. The problem is exacerbated when modelling bivariate outcomes jointly, as the proportion of complete cases is often considerably smaller than the proportion having either of the outcomes fully observed. Approaches taken to handling such missing data include the following: complete case analysis, single-level multiple imputation that ignores the clustering, multiple imputation with a fixed effect for each cluster and multilevel multiple imputation. We contrasted the alternative approaches to handling missing data in a cost-effectiveness analysis that uses data from a cluster randomised trial to evaluate an exercise intervention for care home residents. We then conducted a simulation study to assess the performance of these approaches on bivariate continuous outcomes, in terms of confidence interval coverage and empirical bias in the estimated treatment effects. Missing-at-random clustered data scenarios were simulated following a full-factorial design. Across all the missing data mechanisms considered, the multiple imputation methods provided estimators with negligible bias, while complete case analysis resulted in biased treatment effect estimates in scenarios where the randomised treatment arm was associated with missingness. Confidence interval coverage was generally in excess of nominal levels (up to 99.8%) following fixed-effects multiple imputation and too low following single-level multiple imputation. Multilevel multiple imputation led to coverage levels of approximately 95% throughout. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Estimating the Triple-Point Isotope Effect and the Corresponding Uncertainties for Cryogenic Fixed Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tew, W. L.

2008-02-01

The sensitivities of melting temperatures to isotopic variations in monatomic and diatomic atmospheric gases using both theoretical and semi-empirical methods are estimated. The current state of knowledge of the vapor-pressure isotope effects (VPIE) and triple-point isotope effects (TPIE) is briefly summarized for the noble gases (except He), and for selected diatomic molecules including oxygen. An approximate expression is derived to estimate the relative shift in the melting temperature with isotopic substitution. In general, the magnitude of the effects diminishes with increasing molecular mass and increasing temperature. Knowledge of the VPIE, molar volumes, and heat of fusion are sufficient to estimate the temperature shift or isotopic sensitivity coefficient via the derived expression. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated in the estimation of isotopic sensitivities and uncertainties for triple points of xenon and molecular oxygen for which few documented estimates were previously available. The calculated sensitivities from this study are considerably higher than previous estimates for Xe, and lower than other estimates in the case of oxygen. In both these cases, the predicted sensitivities are small and the resulting variations in triple point temperatures due to mass fractionation effects are less than 20 μK.
Decomposing University Grades: A Longitudinal Study of Students and Their Instructors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beenstock, Michael; Feldman, Dan

2018-01-01

First-degree course grades for a cohort of social science students are matched to their instructors, and are statistically decomposed into departmental, course, instructor, and student components. Student ability is measured alternatively by university acceptance scores, or by fixed effects estimated using panel data methods. After controlling for…
An Examination of the (Un)Intended Consequences of Performance Funding in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Umbricht, Mark R.; Fernandez, Frank; Ortagus, Justin C.

2017-01-01

Previous studies have shown that state performance funding policies do not increase baccalaureate degree production, but higher education scholarship lacks a rigorous, quantitative analysis of the unintended consequences of performance funding. In this article, we use difference-in-differences estimation with fixed effects to evaluate performance…
Likelihood-Based Random-Effect Meta-Analysis of Binary Events.

PubMed

Amatya, Anup; Bhaumik, Dulal K; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Greenhouse, Joel; Kaizar, Eloise; Neelon, Brian; Gibbons, Robert D

2015-01-01

Meta-analysis has been used extensively for evaluation of efficacy and safety of medical interventions. Its advantages and utilities are well known. However, recent studies have raised questions about the accuracy of the commonly used moment-based meta-analytic methods in general and for rare binary outcomes in particular. The issue is further complicated for studies with heterogeneous effect sizes. Likelihood-based mixed-effects modeling provides an alternative to moment-based methods such as inverse-variance weighted fixed- and random-effects estimators. In this article, we compare and contrast different mixed-effect modeling strategies in the context of meta-analysis. Their performance in estimation and testing of overall effect and heterogeneity are evaluated when combining results from studies with a binary outcome. Models that allow heterogeneity in both baseline rate and treatment effect across studies have low type I and type II error rates, and their estimates are the least biased among the models considered.

Mixed-effects models for estimating stand volume by means of small footprint airborne laser scanner data.

Treesearch

J. Breidenbach; E. Kublin; R. McGaughey; H.-E. Andersen; S. Reutebuch

2008-01-01

For this study, hierarchical data sets--in that several sample plots are located within a stand--were analyzed for study sites in the USA and Germany. The German data had an additional hierarchy as the stands are located within four distinct public forests. Fixed-effects models and mixed-effects models with a random intercept on the stand level were fit to each data...
Time vs. Money: A Quantitative Evaluation of Monitoring Frequency vs. Monitoring Duration.

PubMed

McHugh, Thomas E; Kulkarni, Poonam R; Newell, Charles J

2016-09-01

The National Research Council has estimated that over 126,000 contaminated groundwater sites are unlikely to achieve low ug/L clean-up goals in the foreseeable future. At these sites, cost-effective, long-term monitoring schemes are needed in order to understand the long-term changes in contaminant concentrations. Current monitoring optimization schemes rely on site-specific evaluations to optimize groundwater monitoring frequency. However, when using linear regression to estimate the long-term zero-order or first-order contaminant attenuation rate, the effect of monitoring frequency and monitoring duration on the accuracy and confidence for the estimated attenuation rate is not site-specific. For a fixed number of monitoring events, doubling the time between monitoring events (e.g., changing from quarterly monitoring to semi-annual monitoring) will double the accuracy of estimated attenuation rate. For a fixed monitoring frequency (e.g., semi-annual monitoring), increasing the number of monitoring events by 60% will double the accuracy of the estimated attenuation rate. Combining these two factors, doubling the time between monitoring events (e.g., quarterly monitoring to semi-annual monitoring) while decreasing the total number of monitoring events by 38% will result in no change in the accuracy of the estimated attenuation rate. However, the time required to collect this dataset will increase by 25%. Understanding that the trade-off between monitoring frequency and monitoring duration is not site-specific should simplify the process of optimizing groundwater monitoring frequency at contaminated groundwater sites. © 2016 The Authors. Groundwater published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of National Ground Water Association.
Body weight and wages: evidence from Add Health.

PubMed

Sabia, Joseph J; Rees, Daniel I

2012-01-01

This note uses data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to examine the relationship between body weight and wages. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and individual fixed effects estimates provide evidence that overweight and obese white women are paid substantially less per hour than their slimmer counterparts. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation confirms this relationship, suggesting that it is not driven by time-variant unobservables. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V.
78 FR 14952 - Earth Stations Aboard Aircraft Communicating with Fixed-Satellite Service Geostationary-Orbit...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-08

... Aboard Aircraft Communicating with Fixed-Satellite Service Geostationary-Orbit Space Stations AGENCY... geostationary satellites in the fixed-satellite service on a primary basis. This proposed footnote would grant... licensees and operators, and thus are unable to estimate the number of geostationary space station licensees...
Performance comparison of first-order conditional estimation with interaction and Bayesian estimation methods for estimating the population parameters and its distribution from data sets with a low number of subjects.

PubMed

Pradhan, Sudeep; Song, Byungjeong; Lee, Jaeyeon; Chae, Jung-Woo; Kim, Kyung Im; Back, Hyun-Moon; Han, Nayoung; Kwon, Kwang-Il; Yun, Hwi-Yeol

2017-12-01

Exploratory preclinical, as well as clinical trials, may involve a small number of patients, making it difficult to calculate and analyze the pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters, especially if the PK parameters show very high inter-individual variability (IIV). In this study, the performance of a classical first-order conditional estimation with interaction (FOCE-I) and expectation maximization (EM)-based Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian (BAYES) estimation methods were compared for estimating the population parameters and its distribution from data sets having a low number of subjects. In this study, 100 data sets were simulated with eight sampling points for each subject and with six different levels of IIV (5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 50%, and 80%) in their PK parameter distribution. A stochastic simulation and estimation (SSE) study was performed to simultaneously simulate data sets and estimate the parameters using four different methods: FOCE-I only, BAYES(C) (FOCE-I and BAYES composite method), BAYES(F) (BAYES with all true initial parameters and fixed ω 2 ), and BAYES only. Relative root mean squared error (rRMSE) and relative estimation error (REE) were used to analyze the differences between true and estimated values. A case study was performed with a clinical data of theophylline available in NONMEM distribution media. NONMEM software assisted by Pirana, PsN, and Xpose was used to estimate population PK parameters, and R program was used to analyze and plot the results. The rRMSE and REE values of all parameter (fixed effect and random effect) estimates showed that all four methods performed equally at the lower IIV levels, while the FOCE-I method performed better than other EM-based methods at higher IIV levels (greater than 30%). In general, estimates of random-effect parameters showed significant bias and imprecision, irrespective of the estimation method used and the level of IIV. Similar performance of the estimation methods was observed with theophylline dataset. The classical FOCE-I method appeared to estimate the PK parameters more reliably than the BAYES method when using a simple model and data containing only a few subjects. EM-based estimation methods can be considered for adapting to the specific needs of a modeling project at later steps of modeling.
Meta-Analysis of Rare Binary Adverse Event Data

PubMed Central

Bhaumik, Dulal K.; Amatya, Anup; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Greenhouse, Joel; Kaizar, Eloise; Neelon, Brian; Gibbons, Robert D.

2013-01-01

We examine the use of fixed-effects and random-effects moment-based meta-analytic methods for analysis of binary adverse event data. Special attention is paid to the case of rare adverse events which are commonly encountered in routine practice. We study estimation of model parameters and between-study heterogeneity. In addition, we examine traditional approaches to hypothesis testing of the average treatment effect and detection of the heterogeneity of treatment effect across studies. We derive three new methods, simple (unweighted) average treatment effect estimator, a new heterogeneity estimator, and a parametric bootstrapping test for heterogeneity. We then study the statistical properties of both the traditional and new methods via simulation. We find that in general, moment-based estimators of combined treatment effects and heterogeneity are biased and the degree of bias is proportional to the rarity of the event under study. The new methods eliminate much, but not all of this bias. The various estimators and hypothesis testing methods are then compared and contrasted using an example dataset on treatment of stable coronary artery disease. PMID:23734068
Defining space use and movements of Canada lynx with global positioning system telemetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burdett, C.L.; Moen, R.A.; Niemi, G.J.; Mech, L.D.

2007-01-01

Space use and movements of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) are difficult to study with very-high-frequency radiocollars. We deployed global positioning system (GPS) collars on 11 lynx in Minnesota to study their seasonal space-use patterns. We estimated home ranges with minimum-convex-polygon and fixed-kernel methods and estimated core areas with area/probability curves. Fixed-kernel home ranges of males (range = 29-522 km2) were significantly larger than those of females (range = 5-95 km2) annually and during the denning season. Some male lynx increased movements during March, the month most influenced by breeding activity. Lynx core areas were predicted by the 60% fixed-kernel isopleth in most seasons. The mean core-area size of males (range = 6-190 km2) was significantly larger than that of females (range = 1-19 km2) annually and during denning. Most female lynx were reproductive animals with reduced movements, whereas males often ranged widely between Minnesota and Ontario. Sensitivity analyses examining the effect of location frequency on home-range size suggest that the home-range sizes of breeding females are less sensitive to sample size than those of males. Longer periods between locations decreased home-range and core-area overlap relative to the home range estimated from daily locations. GPS collars improve our understanding of space use and movements by lynx by increasing the spatial extent and temporal frequency of monitoring and allowing home ranges to be estimated over short periods that are relevant to life-history characteristics. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.
Development of a national cosmic-ray dose monitoring system with Health Canada's Fixed Point Surveillance network.

PubMed

Liu, Chuanlei; Zhang, Weihua; Ungar, Kurt; Korpach, Ed; White, Brian; Benotto, Mike; Pellerin, Eric

2018-05-07

This work explores the application of Health Canada's Fixed Point Surveillance (FPS) network for cosmic ray monitoring and dose estimation purposes. This network is comprised of RS250 3 inch by 3 inch Sodium Iodide (NaI) spectroscopic dosimeters distributed throughout Canada. The RS250's high channel count rate responds to the electromagnetic and muonic components of cosmic ray shower. These count rates are used to infer cosmic ray doses throughout FPS locations. The derived dose was found to have an accuracy within 6.5% deviation relative to theoretical calculation. The solar cycle effect and meteorologically induced fluctuation can be realistically reflected in the estimated dose. This work may serve as a basis to enable the FPS network to monitor and report both terrestrial and cosmic radiation in quasi-real time. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Optimal mapping of terrestrial gamma dose rates using geological parent material and aerogeophysical survey data.

PubMed

Rawlins, B G; Scheib, C; Tyler, A N; Beamish, D

2012-12-01

Regulatory authorities need ways to estimate natural terrestrial gamma radiation dose rates (nGy h⁻¹) across the landscape accurately, to assess its potential deleterious health effects. The primary method for estimating outdoor dose rate is to use an in situ detector supported 1 m above the ground, but such measurements are costly and cannot capture the landscape-scale variation in dose rates which are associated with changes in soil and parent material mineralogy. We investigate the potential for improving estimates of terrestrial gamma dose rates across Northern Ireland (13,542 km²) using measurements from 168 sites and two sources of ancillary data: (i) a map based on a simplified classification of soil parent material, and (ii) dose estimates from a national-scale, airborne radiometric survey. We used the linear mixed modelling framework in which the two ancillary variables were included in separate models as fixed effects, plus a correlation structure which captures the spatially correlated variance component. We used a cross-validation procedure to determine the magnitude of the prediction errors for the different models. We removed a random subset of 10 terrestrial measurements and formed the model from the remainder (n = 158), and then used the model to predict values at the other 10 sites. We repeated this procedure 50 times. The measurements of terrestrial dose vary between 1 and 103 (nGy h⁻¹). The median absolute model prediction errors (nGy h⁻¹) for the three models declined in the following order: no ancillary data (10.8) > simple geological classification (8.3) > airborne radiometric dose (5.4) as a single fixed effect. Estimates of airborne radiometric gamma dose rate can significantly improve the spatial prediction of terrestrial dose rate.
Genetic Parameter Estimates for Metabolizing Two Common Pharmaceuticals in Swine.

PubMed

Howard, Jeremy T; Ashwell, Melissa S; Baynes, Ronald E; Brooks, James D; Yeatts, James L; Maltecca, Christian

2018-01-01

In livestock, the regulation of drugs used to treat livestock has received increased attention and it is currently unknown how much of the phenotypic variation in drug metabolism is due to the genetics of an animal. Therefore, the objective of the study was to determine the amount of phenotypic variation in fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine drug metabolism due to genetics. The population consisted of crossbred female and castrated male nursery pigs ( n = 198) that were sired by boars represented by four breeds. The animals were spread across nine batches. Drugs were administered intravenously and blood collected a minimum of 10 times over a 48 h period. Genetic parameters for the parent drug and metabolite concentration within each drug were estimated based on pharmacokinetics (PK) parameters or concentrations across time utilizing a random regression model. The PK parameters were estimated using a non-compartmental analysis. The PK model included fixed effects of sex and breed of sire along with random sire and batch effects. The random regression model utilized Legendre polynomials and included a fixed population concentration curve, sex, and breed of sire effects along with a random sire deviation from the population curve and batch effect. The sire effect included the intercept for all models except for the fenbendazole metabolite (i.e., intercept and slope). The mean heritability across PK parameters for the fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine parent drug (metabolite) was 0.15 (0.18) and 0.31 (0.40), respectively. For the parent drug (metabolite), the mean heritability across time was 0.27 (0.60) and 0.14 (0.44) for fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine, respectively. The errors surrounding the heritability estimates for the random regression model were smaller compared to estimates obtained from PK parameters. Across both the PK and plasma drug concentration across model, a moderate heritability was estimated. The model that utilized the plasma drug concentration across time resulted in estimates with a smaller standard error compared to models that utilized PK parameters. The current study found a low to moderate proportion of the phenotypic variation in metabolizing fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine that was explained by genetics in the current study.
Genetic Parameter Estimates for Metabolizing Two Common Pharmaceuticals in Swine

PubMed Central

Howard, Jeremy T.; Ashwell, Melissa S.; Baynes, Ronald E.; Brooks, James D.; Yeatts, James L.; Maltecca, Christian

2018-01-01

In livestock, the regulation of drugs used to treat livestock has received increased attention and it is currently unknown how much of the phenotypic variation in drug metabolism is due to the genetics of an animal. Therefore, the objective of the study was to determine the amount of phenotypic variation in fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine drug metabolism due to genetics. The population consisted of crossbred female and castrated male nursery pigs (n = 198) that were sired by boars represented by four breeds. The animals were spread across nine batches. Drugs were administered intravenously and blood collected a minimum of 10 times over a 48 h period. Genetic parameters for the parent drug and metabolite concentration within each drug were estimated based on pharmacokinetics (PK) parameters or concentrations across time utilizing a random regression model. The PK parameters were estimated using a non-compartmental analysis. The PK model included fixed effects of sex and breed of sire along with random sire and batch effects. The random regression model utilized Legendre polynomials and included a fixed population concentration curve, sex, and breed of sire effects along with a random sire deviation from the population curve and batch effect. The sire effect included the intercept for all models except for the fenbendazole metabolite (i.e., intercept and slope). The mean heritability across PK parameters for the fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine parent drug (metabolite) was 0.15 (0.18) and 0.31 (0.40), respectively. For the parent drug (metabolite), the mean heritability across time was 0.27 (0.60) and 0.14 (0.44) for fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine, respectively. The errors surrounding the heritability estimates for the random regression model were smaller compared to estimates obtained from PK parameters. Across both the PK and plasma drug concentration across model, a moderate heritability was estimated. The model that utilized the plasma drug concentration across time resulted in estimates with a smaller standard error compared to models that utilized PK parameters. The current study found a low to moderate proportion of the phenotypic variation in metabolizing fenbendazole and flunixin meglumine that was explained by genetics in the current study. PMID:29487615
The impacts of non-renewable and renewable energy on CO2 emissions in Turkey.

PubMed

Bulut, Umit

2017-06-01

As a result of great increases in CO 2 emissions in the last few decades, many papers have examined the relationship between renewable energy and CO 2 emissions in the energy economics literature, because as a clean energy source, renewable energy can reduce CO 2 emissions and solve environmental problems stemming from increases in CO 2 emissions. When one analyses these papers, he/she will observe that they employ fixed parameter estimation methods, and time-varying effects of non-renewable and renewable energy consumption/production on greenhouse gas emissions are ignored. In order to fulfil this gap in the literature, this paper examines the effects of non-renewable and renewable energy on CO 2 emissions in Turkey over the period 1970-2013 by employing fixed parameter and time-varying parameter estimation methods. Estimation methods reveal that CO 2 emissions are positively related to non-renewable energy and renewable energy in Turkey. Since policy makers expect renewable energy to decrease CO 2 emissions, this paper argues that renewable energy is not able to satisfy the expectations of policy makers though fewer CO 2 emissions arise through production of electricity using renewable sources. In conclusion, the paper argues that policy makers should implement long-term energy policies in Turkey.
Employment insecurity and employees' health in Denmark.

PubMed

Cottini, Elena; Ghinetti, Paolo

2018-02-01

We use register data for Denmark (IDA) merged with the Danish Work Environment Cohort Survey (1995, 2000, and 2005) to estimate the effect of perceived employment insecurity on perceived health for a sample of Danish employees. We consider two health measures from the SF-36 Health Survey Instrument: a vitality scale for general well-being and a mental health scale. We first analyse a summary measure of employment insecurity. Instrumental variables-fixed effects estimates that use firm workforce changes as a source of exogenous variation show that 1 additional dimension of insecurity causes a shift from the median to the 25th percentile in the mental health scale and to the 30th in that of energy/vitality. It also increases by about 6 percentage points the probability to develop severe mental health problems. Looking at single insecurity dimensions by naïve fixed effects, uncertainty associated with the current job is important for mental health. Employability has a sizeable relationship with health and is the only insecurity dimension that matters for the energy and vitality scale. Danish employees who fear involuntary firm internal mobility experience worse mental health. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Economic Contextual Factors and Child Body Mass Index. NBER Working Paper No. 15046

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powell, Lisa M.; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2009-01-01

This study examines the relationship between child weight and fast food and fruit and vegetable prices and the availability of fast food restaurants, full-service restaurants, supermarkets, grocery stores and convenience stores . We estimate cross-sectional and individual-level fixed effects (FE) models to account for unobserved individual-level…
The Effects of Teacher Match on Students' Academic Perceptions and Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Egalite, Anna J.; Kisida, Brian

2018-01-01

Using student survey data from six U.S. school districts, we estimate how assignment to a demographically similar teacher affects student reports of personal effort, happiness in class, feeling cared for and motivated by their teacher, the quality of student-teacher communication, and college aspirations. Relying on a classroom fixed-effects…
Online Course-Taking and Student Outcomes in California Community Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hart, Cassandra M. D.; Friedmann, Elizabeth; Hill, Michael

2018-01-01

This paper uses fixed effects analyses to estimate differences in student performance under online versus face-to-face course delivery formats in the California Community College system. On average, students have poorer outcomes in online courses in terms of the likelihood of course completion, course completion with a passing grade, and receiving…
Unemployment in Families: The Case of Housework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gough, Margaret; Killewald, Alexandra

2011-01-01

Unemployment has consequences for individuals, but its impacts also reverberate through families. This paper examines how families adapt to unemployment in one area of life--time in housework. Using 74,881 observations from 10,390 couples in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we estimate fixed effects models and find that individuals spend…
Fitting psychometric functions using a fixed-slope parameter: an advanced alternative for estimating odor thresholds with data generated by ASTM E679.

PubMed

Peng, Mei; Jaeger, Sara R; Hautus, Michael J

2014-03-01

Psychometric functions are predominately used for estimating detection thresholds in vision and audition. However, the requirement of large data quantities for fitting psychometric functions (>30 replications) reduces their suitability in olfactory studies because olfactory response data are often limited (<4 replications) due to the susceptibility of human olfactory receptors to fatigue and adaptation. This article introduces a new method for fitting individual-judge psychometric functions to olfactory data obtained using the current standard protocol-American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) E679. The slope parameter of the individual-judge psychometric function is fixed to be the same as that of the group function; the same-shaped symmetrical sigmoid function is fitted only using the intercept. This study evaluated the proposed method by comparing it with 2 available methods. Comparison to conventional psychometric functions (fitted slope and intercept) indicated that the assumption of a fixed slope did not compromise precision of the threshold estimates. No systematic difference was obtained between the proposed method and the ASTM method in terms of group threshold estimates or threshold distributions, but there were changes in the rank, by threshold, of judges in the group. Overall, the fixed-slope psychometric function is recommended for obtaining relatively reliable individual threshold estimates when the quantity of data is limited.
Community Water System Regionalization and Stakeholder Implications: Estimating Effects to Consumers and Purveyors (PREPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

gallon. The data are cross sectional and a Breusch - Pagan test finds that heteroscedasticity is a problem. To correct for it, the analysis re...heteroscedasticity after a fixed effect model uses a Breusch and Pagan Lagrange multiplier test (Baum, 2006a). After a random effects model the test is a...EFFECTS 17 The data originate from 33 CWSs over 13 years so the next step is to test for CWS specific effects. The FE model in the table presents
Effects of participation in the WIC program on birthweight: evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children.

PubMed

Kowaleski-Jones, Lori; Duncan, Greg J

2002-05-01

This study sought to estimate the impact on birthweight of maternal participation in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). WIC estimates were based on sibling models incorporating data on children born between 1990 and 1996 to women taking part in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Fixed-effects estimates indicated that prenatal WIC participation was associated with a 0.075 unit difference (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.007, 0.157) in siblings' logged birthweight. At the 88-oz (2464-g) low-birthweight cutoff, this difference translated into an estimated impact of 6.6 oz (184.8 g). Earlier WIC impact estimates may have been biased by unmeasured characteristics affecting both program participation and birth outcomes. Our approach controlled for such biases and revealed a significant positive association between WIC participation and birthweight.

Modeling the survival kinetics of Salmonella in tree nuts for use in risk assessment.

PubMed

Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Pouillot, Régis; Anderson, Nathan; Johnson, Rhoma; Son, Insook; Van Doren, Jane

2016-06-16

Salmonella has been shown to survive in tree nuts over long periods of time. This survival capacity and its variability are key elements for risk assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict survival of Salmonella in tree nuts at ambient storage temperatures that considers variability and uncertainty separately and can easily be incorporated into a risk assessment model. Data on Salmonella survival on raw almonds, pecans, pistachios and walnuts were collected from the peer reviewed literature. The Weibull model was chosen as the baseline model and various fixed effect and mixed effect models were fit to the data. The best model identified through statistical analysis testing was then used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model. Salmonella in tree nuts showed slow declines at temperatures ranging from 21°C to 24°C. A high degree of variability in survival was observed across tree nut studies reported in the literature. Statistical analysis results indicated that the best applicable model was a mixed effect model that included a fixed and random variation of δ per tree nut (which is the time it takes for the first log10 reduction) and a fixed variation of ρ per tree nut (parameter which defines the shape of the curve). Higher estimated survival rates (δ) were obtained for Salmonella on pistachios, followed in decreasing order by pecans, almonds and walnuts. The posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian inference were used to estimate the variability in the log10 decrease levels in survival for each tree nut, and the uncertainty of these estimates. These modeled uncertainty and variability distributions of the estimates can be used to obtain a complete exposure assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts when including time-temperature parameters for storage and consumption data. The statistical approach presented in this study may be applied to any studies that aim to develop predictive models to be implemented in a probabilistic exposure assessment or a quantitative microbial risk assessment. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Investigating the effects of the fixed and varying dispersion parameters of Poisson-gamma models on empirical Bayes estimates.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Park, Peter Young-Jin

2008-07-01

Traditionally, transportation safety analysts have used the empirical Bayes (EB) method to improve the estimate of the long-term mean of individual sites; to correct for the regression-to-the-mean (RTM) bias in before-after studies; and to identify hotspots or high risk locations. The EB method combines two different sources of information: (1) the expected number of crashes estimated via crash prediction models, and (2) the observed number of crashes at individual sites. Crash prediction models have traditionally been estimated using a negative binomial (NB) (or Poisson-gamma) modeling framework due to the over-dispersion commonly found in crash data. A weight factor is used to assign the relative influence of each source of information on the EB estimate. This factor is estimated using the mean and variance functions of the NB model. With recent trends that illustrated the dispersion parameter to be dependent upon the covariates of NB models, especially for traffic flow-only models, as well as varying as a function of different time-periods, there is a need to determine how these models may affect EB estimates. The objectives of this study are to examine how commonly used functional forms as well as fixed and time-varying dispersion parameters affect the EB estimates. To accomplish the study objectives, several traffic flow-only crash prediction models were estimated using a sample of rural three-legged intersections located in California. Two types of aggregated and time-specific models were produced: (1) the traditional NB model with a fixed dispersion parameter and (2) the generalized NB model (GNB) with a time-varying dispersion parameter, which is also dependent upon the covariates of the model. Several statistical methods were used to compare the fitting performance of the various functional forms. The results of the study show that the selection of the functional form of NB models has an important effect on EB estimates both in terms of estimated values, weight factors, and dispersion parameters. Time-specific models with a varying dispersion parameter provide better statistical performance in terms of goodness-of-fit (GOF) than aggregated multi-year models. Furthermore, the identification of hazardous sites, using the EB method, can be significantly affected when a GNB model with a time-varying dispersion parameter is used. Thus, erroneously selecting a functional form may lead to select the wrong sites for treatment. The study concludes that transportation safety analysts should not automatically use an existing functional form for modeling motor vehicle crashes without conducting rigorous analyses to estimate the most appropriate functional form linking crashes with traffic flow.
Treating childhood pneumonia in hard-to-reach areas: a model-based comparison of mobile clinics and community-based care.

PubMed

Pitt, Catherine; Roberts, Bayard; Checchi, Francesco

2012-01-10

Where hard-to-access populations (such as those living in insecure areas) lack access to basic health services, relief agencies, donors, and ministries of health face a dilemma in selecting the most effective intervention strategy. This paper uses a decision mathematical model to estimate the relative effectiveness of two alternative strategies, mobile clinics and fixed community-based health services, for antibiotic treatment of childhood pneumonia, the world's leading cause of child mortality. A "Markov cycle tree" cohort model was developed in Excel with Visual Basic to compare the number of deaths from pneumonia in children aged 1 to 59 months expected under three scenarios: 1) No curative services available, 2) Curative services provided by a highly-skilled but intermittent mobile clinic, and 3) Curative services provided by a low-skilled community health post. Parameter values were informed by literature and expert interviews. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted for several plausible scenarios. We estimated median pneumonia-specific under-5 mortality rates of 0.51 (95% credible interval: 0.49 to 0.541) deaths per 10,000 child-days without treatment, 0.45 (95% CI: 0.43 to 0.48) with weekly mobile clinics, and 0.31 (95% CI: 0.29 to 0.32) with CHWs in fixed health posts. Sensitivity analyses found the fixed strategy superior, except when mobile clinics visited communities daily, where rates of care-seeking were substantially higher at mobile clinics than fixed posts, or where several variables simultaneously differed substantially from our baseline assumptions. Current evidence does not support the hypothesis that mobile clinics are more effective than CHWs. A CHW strategy therefore warrants consideration in high-mortality, hard-to-access areas. Uncertainty remains, and parameter values may vary across contexts, but the model allows preliminary findings to be updated as new or context-specific evidence becomes available. Decision analytic modelling can guide needed field-based research efforts in hard-to-access areas and offer evidence-based insights for decision-makers.
Designing better methane mitigation policies: the challenge of distributed small sources in the natural gas sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravikumar, Arvind P.; Brandt, Adam R.

2017-04-01

Methane—a short-lived and potent greenhouse gas—presents a unique challenge: it is emitted from a large number of highly distributed and diffuse sources. In this regard, the United States’ Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recommended periodic leak detection and repair surveys at oil and gas facilities using optical gas imaging technology. This regulation requires an operator to fix all detected leaks within a set time period. Whether such ‘find-all-fix-all’ policies are effective depends on significant uncertainties in the character of emissions. In this work, we systematically analyze the effect of facility-related and mitigation-related uncertainties on regulation effectiveness. Drawing from multiple publicly-available datasets, we find that: (1) highly-skewed leak-size distributions strongly influence emissions reduction potential; (2) variations in emissions estimates across facilities leads to large variability in mitigation effectiveness; (3) emissions reductions from optical gas imaging-based leak detection programs can range from 15% to over 70%; and (4) while implementation costs are uniformly lower than EPA estimates, benefits from saved gas are highly variable. Combining empirical evidence with model results, we propose four policy options for effective methane mitigation: performance-oriented targets for accelerated emission reductions, flexible policy mechanisms to account for regional variation, technology-agnostic regulations to encourage adoption of the most cost-effective measures, and coordination with other greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce unintended spillover effects.
Income inequality and cardiovascular disease risk factors in a highly unequal country: a fixed-effects analysis from South Africa.

PubMed

Adjaye-Gbewonyo, Kafui; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S V; Avendano, Mauricio

2018-03-06

Chronic stress associated with high income inequality has been hypothesized to increase CVD risk and other adverse health outcomes. However, most evidence comes from high-income countries, and there is limited evidence on the link between income inequality and biomarkers of chronic stress and risk for CVD. This study examines how changes in income inequality over recent years relate to changes in CVD risk factors in South Africa, home to some of the highest levels of income inequality globally. We linked longitudinal data from 9356 individuals interviewed in the 2008 and 2012 National Income Dynamics Study to district-level Gini coefficients estimated from census and survey data. We investigated whether subnational district income inequality was associated with several modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in South Africa, including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, blood pressure, physical inactivity, smoking, and high alcohol consumption. We ran individual fixed-effects models to examine the association between changes in income inequality and changes in CVD risk factors over time. Linear models were used for continuous metabolic outcomes while conditional Poisson models were used to estimate risk ratios for dichotomous behavioral outcomes. Both income inequality and prevalence of most CVD risk factors increased over the period of study. In longitudinal fixed-effects models, changes in district Gini coefficients were not significantly associated with changes in CVD risk factors. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that subnational district income inequality is associated with CVD risk factors within the high-inequality setting of South Africa.
Educational attainment and cigarette smoking: a causal association?†

PubMed Central

Gilman, Stephen E; Martin, Laurie T; Abrams, David B; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kubzansky, Laura; Loucks, Eric B; Rende, Richard; Rudd, Rima; Buka, Stephen L

2016-01-01

Background Despite abundant evidence that lower education is associated with a higher risk of smoking, whether the association is causal has not been convincingly established. Methods We investigated the association between education and lifetime smoking patterns in a birth cohort established in 1959 and followed through adulthood (n = 1311). We controlled for a wide range of potential confounders that were measured prior to school entry, and also estimated sibling fixed effects models to control for unmeasured familial vulnerability to smoking. Results In the full sample of participants, regression analyses adjusting for multiple childhood factors (including socioeconomic status, IQ, behavioural problems, and medical conditions) indicated that the number of pack-years smoked was higher among individuals with less than high school education [rate ratio (RR) = 1.58, confidence interval (CI) = 1.31, 1.91]. However, in the sibling fixed effects analysis the RR was 1.23 (CI = 0.80, 1.93). Similarly, adjusted models estimated in the full sample showed that individuals with less than high school education had fewer short-term (RR = 0.40; CI = 0.23, 0.69) and long-term (RR = 0.59; CI = 0.42, 0.83) quit attempts, and were less likely to quit smoking (odds ratio = 0.34; CI = 0.19, 0.62). The effects of education on quitting smoking were attenuated in the sibling fixed effects models that controlled for familial vulnerability to smoking. Conclusions A substantial portion of the education differential in smoking that has been repeatedly observed is attributable to factors shared by siblings that contribute to shortened educational careers and to lifetime smoking trajectories. Reducing disparities in cigarette smoking, including educational disparities, may therefore require approaches that focus on factors early in life that influence smoking risk over the adult life span. PMID:18180240
Estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters from non-compartmental variables using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Dansirikul, Chantaratsamon; Choi, Malcolm; Duffull, Stephen B

2005-06-01

This study was conducted to develop a method, termed 'back analysis (BA)', for converting non-compartmental variables to compartment model dependent pharmacokinetic parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. A Microsoft Excel spreadsheet was implemented with the use of Solver and visual basic functions. The performance of the BA method in estimating pharmacokinetic parameter values was evaluated by comparing the parameter values obtained to a standard modelling software program, NONMEM, using simulated data. The results show that the BA method was reasonably precise and provided low bias in estimating fixed and random effect parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. The pharmacokinetic parameters estimated from the BA method were similar to those of NONMEM estimation.
Estimating the "impact" of out-of-home placement on child well-being: approaching the problem of selection bias.

PubMed

Berger, Lawrence M; Bruch, Sarah K; Johnson, Elizabeth I; James, Sigrid; Rubin, David

2009-01-01

This study used data on 2,453 children aged 4-17 from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being and 5 analytic methods that adjust for selection factors to estimate the impact of out-of-home placement on children's cognitive skills and behavior problems. Methods included ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions and residualized change, simple change, difference-in-difference, and fixed effects models. Models were estimated using the full sample and a matched sample generated by propensity scoring. Although results from the unmatched OLS and residualized change models suggested that out-of-home placement is associated with increased child behavior problems, estimates from models that more rigorously adjust for selection bias indicated that placement has little effect on children's cognitive skills or behavior problems.
Robust, Adaptive Functional Regression in Functional Mixed Model Framework.

PubMed

Zhu, Hongxiao; Brown, Philip J; Morris, Jeffrey S

2011-09-01

Functional data are increasingly encountered in scientific studies, and their high dimensionality and complexity lead to many analytical challenges. Various methods for functional data analysis have been developed, including functional response regression methods that involve regression of a functional response on univariate/multivariate predictors with nonparametrically represented functional coefficients. In existing methods, however, the functional regression can be sensitive to outlying curves and outlying regions of curves, so is not robust. In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian method, robust functional mixed models (R-FMM), for performing robust functional regression within the general functional mixed model framework, which includes multiple continuous or categorical predictors and random effect functions accommodating potential between-function correlation induced by the experimental design. The underlying model involves a hierarchical scale mixture model for the fixed effects, random effect and residual error functions. These modeling assumptions across curves result in robust nonparametric estimators of the fixed and random effect functions which down-weight outlying curves and regions of curves, and produce statistics that can be used to flag global and local outliers. These assumptions also lead to distributions across wavelet coefficients that have outstanding sparsity and adaptive shrinkage properties, with great flexibility for the data to determine the sparsity and the heaviness of the tails. Together with the down-weighting of outliers, these within-curve properties lead to fixed and random effect function estimates that appear in our simulations to be remarkably adaptive in their ability to remove spurious features yet retain true features of the functions. We have developed general code to implement this fully Bayesian method that is automatic, requiring the user to only provide the functional data and design matrices. It is efficient enough to handle large data sets, and yields posterior samples of all model parameters that can be used to perform desired Bayesian estimation and inference. Although we present details for a specific implementation of the R-FMM using specific distributional choices in the hierarchical model, 1D functions, and wavelet transforms, the method can be applied more generally using other heavy-tailed distributions, higher dimensional functions (e.g. images), and using other invertible transformations as alternatives to wavelets.
Robust, Adaptive Functional Regression in Functional Mixed Model Framework

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hongxiao; Brown, Philip J.; Morris, Jeffrey S.

2012-01-01

Functional data are increasingly encountered in scientific studies, and their high dimensionality and complexity lead to many analytical challenges. Various methods for functional data analysis have been developed, including functional response regression methods that involve regression of a functional response on univariate/multivariate predictors with nonparametrically represented functional coefficients. In existing methods, however, the functional regression can be sensitive to outlying curves and outlying regions of curves, so is not robust. In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian method, robust functional mixed models (R-FMM), for performing robust functional regression within the general functional mixed model framework, which includes multiple continuous or categorical predictors and random effect functions accommodating potential between-function correlation induced by the experimental design. The underlying model involves a hierarchical scale mixture model for the fixed effects, random effect and residual error functions. These modeling assumptions across curves result in robust nonparametric estimators of the fixed and random effect functions which down-weight outlying curves and regions of curves, and produce statistics that can be used to flag global and local outliers. These assumptions also lead to distributions across wavelet coefficients that have outstanding sparsity and adaptive shrinkage properties, with great flexibility for the data to determine the sparsity and the heaviness of the tails. Together with the down-weighting of outliers, these within-curve properties lead to fixed and random effect function estimates that appear in our simulations to be remarkably adaptive in their ability to remove spurious features yet retain true features of the functions. We have developed general code to implement this fully Bayesian method that is automatic, requiring the user to only provide the functional data and design matrices. It is efficient enough to handle large data sets, and yields posterior samples of all model parameters that can be used to perform desired Bayesian estimation and inference. Although we present details for a specific implementation of the R-FMM using specific distributional choices in the hierarchical model, 1D functions, and wavelet transforms, the method can be applied more generally using other heavy-tailed distributions, higher dimensional functions (e.g. images), and using other invertible transformations as alternatives to wavelets. PMID:22308015
A systematic evaluation of contemporary impurity correction methods in ITS-90 aluminium fixed point cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Rodrigo; Pearce, Jonathan V.; Machin, Graham

2017-06-01

The fixed points of the International Temperature Scale of 1990 (ITS-90) are the basis of the calibration of standard platinum resistance thermometers (SPRTs). Impurities in the fixed point material at the level of parts per million can give rise to an elevation or depression of the fixed point temperature of order of millikelvins, which often represents the most significant contribution to the uncertainty of SPRT calibrations. A number of methods for correcting for the effect of impurities have been advocated, but it is becoming increasingly evident that no single method can be used in isolation. In this investigation, a suite of five aluminium fixed point cells (defined ITS-90 freezing temperature 660.323 °C) have been constructed, each cell using metal sourced from a different supplier. The five cells have very different levels and types of impurities. For each cell, chemical assays based on the glow discharge mass spectroscopy (GDMS) technique have been obtained from three separate laboratories. In addition a series of high quality, long duration freezing curves have been obtained for each cell, using three different high quality SPRTs, all measured under nominally identical conditions. The set of GDMS analyses and freezing curves were then used to compare the different proposed impurity correction methods. It was found that the most consistent corrections were obtained with a hybrid correction method based on the sum of individual estimates (SIE) and overall maximum estimate (OME), namely the SIE/Modified-OME method. Also highly consistent was the correction technique based on fitting a Scheil solidification model to the measured freezing curves, provided certain well defined constraints are applied. Importantly, the most consistent methods are those which do not depend significantly on the chemical assay.
Considerations when loading spinal finite element models with predicted muscle forces from inverse static analyses.

PubMed

Zhu, Rui; Zander, Thomas; Dreischarf, Marcel; Duda, Georg N; Rohlmann, Antonius; Schmidt, Hendrik

2013-04-26

Mostly simplified loads were used in biomechanical finite element (FE) studies of the spine because of a lack of data on muscular physiological loading. Inverse static (IS) models allow the prediction of muscle forces for predefined postures. A combination of both mechanical approaches - FE and IS - appears to allow a more realistic modeling. However, it is unknown what deviations are to be expected when muscle forces calculated for models with rigid vertebrae and fixed centers of rotation, as generally found in IS models, are applied to a FE model with elastic vertebrae and discs. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of these disagreements. Muscle forces were estimated for 20° flexion and 10° extension in an IS model and transferred to a FE model. The effects of the elasticity of bony structures (rigid vs. elastic) and the definition of the center of rotation (fixed vs. non-fixed) were quantified using the deviation of actual intervertebral rotation (IVR) of the FE model and the targeted IVR from the IS model. For extension, the elasticity of the vertebrae had only a minor effect on IVRs, whereas a non-fixed center of rotation increased the IVR deviation on average by 0.5° per segment. For flexion, a combination of the two parameters increased IVR deviation on average by 1° per segment. When loading FE models with predicted muscle forces from IS analyses, the main limitations in the IS model - rigidity of the segments and the fixed centers of rotation - must be considered. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Analysis of down wood volme and percent ground cover for the Missouri Ozark forest ecosystem project

Treesearch

Laura A. Herbeck

2000-01-01

Volume and percent ground cover of down wood were estimated on the MOFEP sites from two separate sampling inventories, line transects and fixed-area plots. Line transects were used to sample down wood in the 1990-91 and 1994-95 inventories and fixed-area plots were used in an additional inventory in 1995. Line transect inventories estimated a range in ground cover...
Kalman filter data assimilation: targeting observations and parameter estimation.

PubMed

Bellsky, Thomas; Kostelich, Eric J; Mahalov, Alex

2014-06-01

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.
Kalman filter data assimilation: Targeting observations and parameter estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bellsky, Thomas, E-mail: bellskyt@asu.edu; Kostelich, Eric J.; Mahalov, Alex

2014-06-15

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly locatedmore » observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.« less
Combining a Job-Exposure Matrix with Exposure Measurements to Assess Occupational Exposure to Benzene in a Population Cohort in Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Friesen, Melissa C.; Coble, Joseph B.; Lu, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Portengen, Lutzen; Chow, Wong-Ho; Gao, Yu-Tang; Yang, Gong; Rothman, Nathaniel; Vermeulen, Roel

2012-01-01

Background: Generic job-exposure matrices (JEMs) are often used in population-based epidemiologic studies to assess occupational risk factors when only the job and industry information of each subject is available. JEM ratings are often based on professional judgment, are usually ordinal or semi-quantitative, and often do not account for changes in exposure over time. We present an empirical Bayesian framework that combines ordinal subjective JEM ratings with benzene measurements. Our aim was to better discriminate between job, industry, and time differences in exposure levels compared to using a JEM alone. Methods: We combined 63 221 short-term area air measurements of benzene exposure (1954–2000) collected during routine health and safety inspections in Shanghai, China, with independently developed JEM intensity ratings for each job and industry using a mixed-effects model. The fixed-effects terms included the JEM intensity ratings for job and industry (both ordinal, 0–3) and a time trend that we incorporated as a b-spline. The random-effects terms included job (n = 33) and industry nested within job (n = 399). We predicted the benzene concentration in two ways: (i) a calibrated JEM estimate was calculated using the fixed-effects model parameters for calendar year and JEM intensity ratings; (ii) a job-/industry-specific estimate was calculated using the fixed-effects model parameters and the best linear unbiased predictors from the random effects for job and industry using an empirical Bayes estimation procedure. Finally, we applied the predicted benzene exposures to a prospective population-based cohort of women in Shanghai, China (n = 74 942). Results: Exposure levels were 13 times higher in 1965 than in 2000 and declined at a rate that varied from 4 to 15% per year from 1965 to 1985, followed by a small peak in the mid-1990s. The job-/industry-specific estimates had greater differences between exposure levels than the calibrated JEM estimates (97.5th percentile/2.5th percentile exposure level, BGR95B: 20.4 versus 3.0, respectively). The calibrated JEM and job-/industry-specific estimates were moderately correlated in any given year (Pearson correlation, rp = 0.58). We classified only those jobs and industries with a job or industry JEM exposure probability rating of 3 (>50% of workers exposed) as exposed. As a result, 14.8% of the subjects and 8.7% of the employed person-years in the study population were classified as benzene exposed. The cumulative exposure metrics based on the calibrated JEM and job-/industry-specific estimates were highly correlated (rp = 0.88). Conclusions: We provide a useful framework for combining quantitative exposure data with expert-based exposure ratings in population-based studies that maximized the information from both sources. Our framework calibrated the ratings to a concentration scale between ratings and across time and provided a mechanism to estimate exposure when a job/industry group reported by a subject was not represented in the exposure database. It also allowed the job/industry groups’ exposure levels to deviate from the pooled average for their respective JEM intensity ratings. PMID:21976309
Associations among job demands and resources, work engagement, and psychological distress: fixed-effects model analysis in Japan.

PubMed

Oshio, Takashi; Inoue, Akiomi; Tsutsumi, Akizumi

2018-05-25

We examined the associations among job demands and resources, work engagement, and psychological distress, adjusted for time-invariant individual attributes. We used data from a Japanese occupational cohort survey, which included 18,702 observations of 7,843 individuals. We investigated how work engagement, measured by the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, was associated with key aspects of job demands and resources, using fixed-effects regression models. We further estimated the fixed-effects models to assess how work engagement moderated the association between each job characteristic and psychological distress as measured by Kessler 6 scores. The fixed-effects models showed that work engagement was positively associated with job resources, as did pooled cross-sectional and prospective cohort models. Specifically, the standardized regression coefficients (β) were 0.148 and 0.120 for extrinsic reward and decision latitude, respectively, compared to -0.159 and 0.020 for role ambiguity and workload and time pressure, respectively (p < 0.001 for all associations). Work engagement modestly moderated the associations of psychological distress with workload and time pressure and extrinsic reward; a one-standard deviation increase in work engagement moderated their associations by 19.2% (p < 0.001) and 11.3% (p = 0.034), respectively. Work engagement was associated with job demands and resources, which is in line with the theoretical prediction of the job demands-resources model, even after controlling for time-invariant individual attributes. Work engagement moderated the association between selected aspects of job demands and resources and psychological distress.
Scale-chiral symmetry, ω meson, and dense baryonic matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yong-Liang; Rho, Mannque

2018-05-01

It is shown that explicitly broken scale symmetry is essential for dense skyrmion matter in hidden local symmetry theory. Consistency with the vector manifestation fixed point for the hidden local symmetry of the lowest-lying vector mesons and the dilaton limit fixed point for scale symmetry in dense matter is found to require that the anomalous dimension (|γG2| ) of the gluon field strength tensor squared (G2 ) that represents the quantum trace anomaly should be 1.0 ≲|γG2|≲3.5 . The magnitude of |γG2| estimated here will be useful for studying hadron and nuclear physics based on the scale-chiral effective theory. More significantly, that the dilaton limit fixed point can be arrived at with γG2≠0 at some high density signals that scale symmetry can arise in dense medium as an "emergent" symmetry.
Feasibility Study of Solar Photovoltaics on Landfills in Puerto Rico (Second Study)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salasovich, J.; Mosey, G.

2011-08-01

This report presents the results of an assessment of the technical and economic feasibility of deploying a solar photovoltaics (PV) system on landfill sites in Puerto Rico. The purpose of this report is to assess the landfills with the highest potential for possible solar PV installation and estimate cost, performance, and site impacts of three different PV options: crystalline silicon (fixed tilt), crystalline silicon (single-axis tracking), and thin film (fixed tilt). The report outlines financing options that could assist in the implementation of a system. According to the site production calculations, the most cost-effective system in terms of return onmore » investment is the thin-film fixed-tilt technology. The report recommends financing options that could assist in the implementation of such a system. The landfills and sites considered in this report were all determined feasible areas in which to implement solar PV systems.« less
Early clinical results of a high-flexion, posterior-stabilized, mobile-bearing total knee arthroplasty: a US investigational device exemption trial.

PubMed

Scuderi, Giles R; Hedden, David R; Maltry, John A; Traina, Steven M; Sheinkop, Mitchell B; Hartzband, Mark A

2012-03-01

Between May 2001 and June 2004, 388 total knee arthroplasty cases were enrolled in a prospective, randomized, multicenter investigational device exemption trial. Patients received either the investigational high-flexion mobile-bearing knee or a fixed-bearing control. At 2 to 4 years of follow-up, results in 293 patients with degenerative joint disease were compared using Knee Society Assessment and Function scores, radiographic results, complications analysis, and survival estimates. The mobile-bearing and fixed-bearing groups demonstrated similar, significant improvement over preoperative assessments in Knee Scores, maximum flexion, and range of motion. One mobile-bearing arthroplasty required revision. Radiographic results were unremarkable, and implant-related complications were rare in both groups. At this early follow-up, the investigational high-flexion mobile-bearing knee and its fixed-bearing counterpart demonstrated comparable, effective performance. Copyright Â© 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Randomization-Based Inference about Latent Variables from Complex Samples: The Case of Two-Stage Sampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Tiandong

2012-01-01

In large-scale assessments, such as the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), plausible values based on Multiple Imputations (MI) have been used to estimate population characteristics for latent constructs under complex sample designs. Mislevy (1991) derived a closed-form analytic solution for a fixed-effect model in creating…
Missing Data Treatments at the Second Level of Hierarchical Linear Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

St. Clair, Suzanne W.

2011-01-01

The current study evaluated the performance of traditional versus modern MDTs in the estimation of fixed-effects and variance components for data missing at the second level of an hierarchical linear model (HLM) model across 24 different study conditions. Variables manipulated in the analysis included, (a) number of Level-2 variables with missing…
The Returns to UK Degrees for Foreign-Educated Graduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Valbuena, Javier; Zhu, Yu

2018-01-01

Exploiting information on foreign qualifications for the first time, we estimate the returns to obtaining UK higher degrees for foreign graduates who migrated to the UK in their 20s. Accounting for direct measures of foreign and UK qualifications and country-of-origin fixed effects, we find substantial returns to obtaining UK (higher) degrees on…
Conditional Optimal Design in Three- and Four-Level Experiments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hedges, Larry V.; Borenstein, Michael

2014-01-01

The precision of estimates of treatment effects in multilevel experiments depends on the sample sizes chosen at each level. It is often desirable to choose sample sizes at each level to obtain the smallest variance for a fixed total cost, that is, to obtain optimal sample allocation. This article extends previous results on optimal allocation to…
Child Mental Health and Human Capital Accumulation: The Case of ADHD Revisited. NBER Working Paper No. 13474

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fletcher, Jason; Wolfe, Barbara L.

2007-01-01

Recently, Currie and Stabile (2006) made a significant contribution to our understanding of the influence of ADHD symptoms on a variety of school outcomes including participation in special education, grade repetition and test scores. Their contributions include using a broad sample of children and estimating sibling fixed effects models to…
Studying the Child Obesity Epidemic With Natural Experiments. NBER Working Paper No. 14989

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sandy, Robert; Liu, Gilbert; Ottensmann, John; Tchernis, Rusty; Wilson, Jeffrey; Ford, O.T.

2009-01-01

We utilize clinical records of successive visits by children to pediatric clinics in Indianapolis to estimate the effects on their body mass of environmental changes near their homes. We compare results for fixed-residence children with those for cross-sectional data. Our environmental factors are fast food restaurants, supermarkets, parks,…
Meta-Analysis of Correlations Revisited: Attempted Replication and Extension of Field's (2001) Simulation Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hafdahl, Adam R.; Williams, Michelle A.

2009-01-01

In 2 Monte Carlo studies of fixed- and random-effects meta-analysis for correlations, A. P. Field (2001) ostensibly evaluated Hedges-Olkin-Vevea Fisher-[zeta] and Schmidt-Hunter Pearson-r estimators and tests in 120 conditions. Some authors have cited those results as evidence not to meta-analyze Fisher-[zeta] correlations, especially with…
Community Colleges and Labor Market Conditions: How Does Enrollment Demand Change Relative to Local Unemployment Rates?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hillman, Nicholas W.; Orians, Erica Lee

2013-01-01

This study uses fixed-effects panel data techniques to estimate the elasticity of community college enrollment demand relative to local unemployment rates. The findings suggest that community college enrollment demand is counter-cyclical to changes in the labor market, as enrollments rise during periods of weak economic conditions. Using national…
Do Generous Unemployment Benefit Programs Reduce Suicide Rates? A State Fixed-Effect Analysis Covering 1968–2008

PubMed Central

Cylus, Jonathan; Glymour, M. Maria; Avendano, Mauricio

2014-01-01

The recent economic recession has led to increases in suicide, but whether US state unemployment insurance programs ameliorate this association has not been examined. Exploiting US state variations in the generosity of benefit programs between 1968 and 2008, we tested the hypothesis that more generous unemployment benefit programs reduce the impact of economic downturns on suicide. Using state linear fixed-effect models, we found a negative additive interaction between unemployment rates and benefits among the US working-age (20–64 years) population (β = −0.57, 95% confidence interval: −0.86, −0.27; P < 0.001). The finding of a negative additive interaction was robust across multiple model specifications. Our results suggest that the impact of unemployment rates on suicide is offset by the presence of generous state unemployment benefit programs, though estimated effects are small in magnitude. PMID:24939978
Intelligence/Electronic Warfare (IEW) direction-finding and fix estimation analysis report. Volume 2: Trailblazer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gardner, Robert; Gillis, James W.; Griesel, Ann; Pardo, Bruce

1985-01-01

An analysis of the direction finding (DF) and fix estimation algorithms in TRAILBLAZER is presented. The TRAILBLAZER software analyzed is old and not currently used in the field. However, the algorithms analyzed are used in other current IEW systems. The underlying algorithm assumptions (including unmodeled errors) are examined along with their appropriateness for TRAILBLAZER. Coding and documentation problems are then discussed. A detailed error budget is presented.
Quantifying the impact of fixed effects modeling of clusters in multiple imputation for cluster randomized trials

PubMed Central

Andridge, Rebecca. R.

2011-01-01

In cluster randomized trials (CRTs), identifiable clusters rather than individuals are randomized to study groups. Resulting data often consist of a small number of clusters with correlated observations within a treatment group. Missing data often present a problem in the analysis of such trials, and multiple imputation (MI) has been used to create complete data sets, enabling subsequent analysis with well-established analysis methods for CRTs. We discuss strategies for accounting for clustering when multiply imputing a missing continuous outcome, focusing on estimation of the variance of group means as used in an adjusted t-test or ANOVA. These analysis procedures are congenial to (can be derived from) a mixed effects imputation model; however, this imputation procedure is not yet available in commercial statistical software. An alternative approach that is readily available and has been used in recent studies is to include fixed effects for cluster, but the impact of using this convenient method has not been studied. We show that under this imputation model the MI variance estimator is positively biased and that smaller ICCs lead to larger overestimation of the MI variance. Analytical expressions for the bias of the variance estimator are derived in the case of data missing completely at random (MCAR), and cases in which data are missing at random (MAR) are illustrated through simulation. Finally, various imputation methods are applied to data from the Detroit Middle School Asthma Project, a recent school-based CRT, and differences in inference are compared. PMID:21259309
Classification of longitudinal data through a semiparametric mixed-effects model based on lasso-type estimators.

PubMed

Arribas-Gil, Ana; De la Cruz, Rolando; Lebarbier, Emilie; Meza, Cristian

2015-06-01

We propose a classification method for longitudinal data. The Bayes classifier is classically used to determine a classification rule where the underlying density in each class needs to be well modeled and estimated. This work is motivated by a real dataset of hormone levels measured at the early stages of pregnancy that can be used to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes. The proposed model, which is a semiparametric linear mixed-effects model (SLMM), is a particular case of the semiparametric nonlinear mixed-effects class of models (SNMM) in which finite dimensional (fixed effects and variance components) and infinite dimensional (an unknown function) parameters have to be estimated. In SNMM's maximum likelihood estimation is performed iteratively alternating parametric and nonparametric procedures. However, if one can make the assumption that the random effects and the unknown function interact in a linear way, more efficient estimation methods can be used. Our contribution is the proposal of a unified estimation procedure based on a penalized EM-type algorithm. The Expectation and Maximization steps are explicit. In this latter step, the unknown function is estimated in a nonparametric fashion using a lasso-type procedure. A simulation study and an application on real data are performed. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.
Migration Flow and Its Impact on Tuberculosis Notification in Portugal.

PubMed

Dias, Ana; Gaio, Rita; Sousa, Pedro; Gomes, Marta; Oliveira, Olena; Duarte, Raquel

2018-01-01

Tuberculosis notification in Portugal has decreased in the last few years. As a consequence of the economic crisis, emigration has increased and immigration has decreased. Immigrants are a risk group for tuberculosis. Most emigrants are 20-44 years old and belong to the age group most affected by tuberculosis. To describe the decrease in tuberculosis notification in Portugal over the last years from a demographical point of view. Mathematical analysis was performed to quantify the effect of the migration movements (separately and simultaneously) on tuberculosis notification in Portugal from 2008 to 2014. We calculated the estimated tuberculosis notification for each year during the period of study: 1) fixing immigration rate and tuberculosis rate in immigrants at 2008 values; 2) fixing emigration rate and tuberculosis rate in emigrants at 2008 values; 3) fixing both phenomenons at 2008 values. The differences between the observed and the estimated numbers were small (≤0.5 cases/100000 inhabitants). Impact of the migration movements on tuberculosis notification rate does not seem to be significant when analyzed for each phenomenon individually and simultaneously, by our model. This might mean that we have to concentrate our efforts in other risk factors for tuberculosis. Copyright © 2017 SEPAR. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Model Predictive Flight Control System with Full State Observer using H∞ Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanwale, Jitu; Singh, Dhan Jeet

2018-03-01

This paper presents the application of the model predictive approach to design a flight control system (FCS) for longitudinal dynamics of a fixed wing aircraft. Longitudinal dynamics is derived for a conventional aircraft. Open loop aircraft response analysis is carried out. Simulation studies are illustrated to prove the efficacy of the proposed model predictive controller using H ∞ state observer. The estimation criterion used in the {H}_{∞} observer design is to minimize the worst possible effects of the modelling errors and additive noise on the parameter estimation.
A theoretical framework to predict the most likely ion path in particle imaging.

PubMed

Collins-Fekete, Charles-Antoine; Volz, Lennart; Portillo, Stephen K N; Beaulieu, Luc; Seco, Joao

2017-03-07

In this work, a generic rigorous Bayesian formalism is introduced to predict the most likely path of any ion crossing a medium between two detection points. The path is predicted based on a combination of the particle scattering in the material and measurements of its initial and final position, direction and energy. The path estimate's precision is compared to the Monte Carlo simulated path. Every ion from hydrogen to carbon is simulated in two scenarios, (1) where the range is fixed and (2) where the initial velocity is fixed. In the scenario where the range is kept constant, the maximal root-mean-square error between the estimated path and the Monte Carlo path drops significantly between the proton path estimate (0.50 mm) and the helium path estimate (0.18 mm), but less so up to the carbon path estimate (0.09 mm). However, this scenario is identified as the configuration that maximizes the dose while minimizing the path resolution. In the scenario where the initial velocity is fixed, the maximal root-mean-square error between the estimated path and the Monte Carlo path drops significantly between the proton path estimate (0.29 mm) and the helium path estimate (0.09 mm) but increases for heavier ions up to carbon (0.12 mm). As a result, helium is found to be the particle with the most accurate path estimate for the lowest dose, potentially leading to tomographic images of higher spatial resolution.
Corruption costs lives: evidence from a cross-country study.

PubMed

Li, Qiang; An, Lian; Xu, Jing; Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina

2018-01-01

This paper investigates the effect of corruption on health outcomes by using cross-country panel data covering about 150 countries for the period of 1995 to 2012. We employ ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed-effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation methods, and find that corruption significantly increases mortality rates, and reduces life expectancy and immunization rates. The results are consistent across different regions, gender, and measures of corruption. The findings suggest that reducing corruption can be an effective method to improve health outcomes.
Comparison of random regression models with Legendre polynomials and linear splines for production traits and somatic cell score of Canadian Holstein cows.

PubMed

Bohmanova, J; Miglior, F; Jamrozik, J; Misztal, I; Sullivan, P G

2008-09-01

A random regression model with both random and fixed regressions fitted by Legendre polynomials of order 4 was compared with 3 alternative models fitting linear splines with 4, 5, or 6 knots. The effects common for all models were a herd-test-date effect, fixed regressions on days in milk (DIM) nested within region-age-season of calving class, and random regressions for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. Data were test-day milk, fat and protein yields, and SCS recorded from 5 to 365 DIM during the first 3 lactations of Canadian Holstein cows. A random sample of 50 herds consisting of 96,756 test-day records was generated to estimate variance components within a Bayesian framework via Gibbs sampling. Two sets of genetic evaluations were subsequently carried out to investigate performance of the 4 models. Models were compared by graphical inspection of variance functions, goodness of fit, error of prediction of breeding values, and stability of estimated breeding values. Models with splines gave lower estimates of variances at extremes of lactations than the model with Legendre polynomials. Differences among models in goodness of fit measured by percentages of squared bias, correlations between predicted and observed records, and residual variances were small. The deviance information criterion favored the spline model with 6 knots. Smaller error of prediction and higher stability of estimated breeding values were achieved by using spline models with 5 and 6 knots compared with the model with Legendre polynomials. In general, the spline model with 6 knots had the best overall performance based upon the considered model comparison criteria.
Multi-Mode Estimation for Small Fixed Wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Localization Based on a Linear Matrix Inequality Approach

PubMed Central

Elzoghby, Mostafa; Li, Fu; Arafa, Ibrahim. I.; Arif, Usman

2017-01-01

Information fusion from multiple sensors ensures the accuracy and robustness of a navigation system, especially in the absence of global positioning system (GPS) data which gets degraded in many cases. A way to deal with multi-mode estimation for a small fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) localization framework is proposed, which depends on utilizing a Luenberger observer-based linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. The proposed estimation technique relies on the interaction between multiple measurement modes and a continuous observer. The state estimation is performed in a switching environment between multiple active sensors to exploit the available information as much as possible, especially in GPS-denied environments. Luenberger observer-based projection is implemented as a continuous observer to optimize the estimation performance. The observer gain might be chosen by solving a Lyapunov equation by means of a LMI algorithm. Convergence is achieved by utilizing the linear matrix inequality (LMI), based on Lyapunov stability which keeps the dynamic estimation error bounded by selecting the observer gain matrix (L). Simulation results are presented for a small UAV fixed wing localization problem. The results obtained using the proposed approach are compared with a single mode Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the viability of the proposed strategy. PMID:28420214
Cross-section and panel estimates of peer effects in early adolescent cannabis use: With a little help from my 'friends once removed'.

PubMed

Moriarty, John; McVicar, Duncan; Higgins, Kathryn

2016-08-01

Peer effects in adolescent cannabis are difficult to estimate, due in part to the lack of appropriate data on behaviour and social ties. This paper exploits survey data that have many desirable properties and have not previously been used for this purpose. The data set, collected from teenagers in three annual waves from 2002 to 2004 contains longitudinal information about friendship networks within schools (N = 5020). We exploit these data on network structure to estimate peer effects on adolescents from their nominated friends within school using two alternative approaches to identification. First, we present a cross-sectional instrumental variable (IV) estimate of peer effects that exploits network structure at the second degree, i.e. using information on friends of friends who are not themselves ego's friends to instrument for the cannabis use of friends. Second, we present an individual fixed effects estimate of peer effects using the full longitudinal structure of the data. Both innovations allow a greater degree of control for correlated effects than is commonly the case in the substance-use peer effects literature, improving our chances of obtaining estimates of peer effects than can be plausibly interpreted as causal. Both estimates suggest positive peer effects of non-trivial magnitude, although the IV estimate is imprecise. Furthermore, when we specify identical models with behaviour and characteristics of randomly selected school peers in place of friends', we find effectively zero effect from these 'placebo' peers, lending credence to our main estimates. We conclude that cross-sectional data can be used to estimate plausible positive peer effects on cannabis use where network structure information is available and appropriately exploited. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Corruption costs lives: a cross-country study using an IV approach.

PubMed

Lio, Mon-Chi; Lee, Ming-Hsuan

2016-04-01

This study quantitatively estimates the effects of corruption on five major health indicators by using recent cross-country panel data covering 119 countries for the period of 2005-2011. The corruption indicators provided by the World Bank and Transparency International are used, and both the two-way fixed effect and the two-stage least squares approaches are employed for our estimation. The estimation results show that, in general, corruption is negatively associated with a country's health outcomes. A lower level of corruption or a better control of corruption in a country can lead to longer life expectancy, a lower infant mortality rate and a lower under-five mortality rate for citizens. However, our estimation finds no significant association between corruption and individual diseases including human immunodeficiency virus prevalence and tuberculosis incidence. The findings suggest that corruption reduction itself is an effective method to promote health. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fixed-time synchronization of complex networks with nonidentical nodes and stochastic noise perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wanli; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Huang, Junjian

2018-02-01

This paper investigates the fixed-time synchronization of complex networks (CNs) with nonidentical nodes and stochastic noise perturbations. By designing new controllers, constructing Lyapunov functions and using the properties of Weiner process, different synchronization criteria are derived according to whether the node systems in the CNs or the goal system satisfies the corresponding conditions. Moreover, the role of the designed controllers is analyzed in great detail by constructing a suitable comparison system and a new method is presented to estimate the settling time by utilizing the comparison system. Results of this paper can be applied to both directed and undirected weighted networks. Numerical simulations are offered to verify the effectiveness of our new results.
Development of Quadratic Programming Algorithm Based on Interior Point Method with Estimation Mechanism of Active Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, Hiroyuki; Takaguchi, Yusuke; Nakamura, Shizuka

Instability of calculation process and increase of calculation time caused by increasing size of continuous optimization problem remain the major issues to be solved to apply the technique to practical industrial systems. This paper proposes an enhanced quadratic programming algorithm based on interior point method mainly for improvement of calculation stability. The proposed method has dynamic estimation mechanism of active constraints on variables, which fixes the variables getting closer to the upper/lower limit on them and afterwards releases the fixed ones as needed during the optimization process. It is considered as algorithm-level integration of the solution strategy of active-set method into the interior point method framework. We describe some numerical results on commonly-used bench-mark problems called “CUTEr” to show the effectiveness of the proposed method. Furthermore, the test results on large-sized ELD problem (Economic Load Dispatching problems in electric power supply scheduling) are also described as a practical industrial application.
MIMICKING COUNTERFACTUAL OUTCOMES TO ESTIMATE CAUSAL EFFECTS.

PubMed

Lok, Judith J

2017-04-01

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even time-dependent Cox-models cannot be used to estimate the net treatment effect. Structural nested models have been applied in this setting. Structural nested models are based on counterfactuals: the outcome a person would have had had treatment been withheld after a certain time. Previous work on continuous-time structural nested models assumes that counterfactuals depend deterministically on observed data, while conjecturing that this assumption can be relaxed. This article proves that one can mimic counterfactuals by constructing random variables, solutions to a differential equation, that have the same distribution as the counterfactuals, even given past observed data. These "mimicking" variables can be used to estimate the parameters of structural nested models without assuming the treatment effect to be deterministic.
Accounting for dropout bias using mixed-effects models.

PubMed

Mallinckrodt, C H; Clark, W S; David, S R

2001-01-01

Treatment effects are often evaluated by comparing change over time in outcome measures. However, valid analyses of longitudinal data can be problematic when subjects discontinue (dropout) prior to completing the study. This study assessed the merits of likelihood-based repeated measures analyses (MMRM) compared with fixed-effects analysis of variance where missing values were imputed using the last observation carried forward approach (LOCF) in accounting for dropout bias. Comparisons were made in simulated data and in data from a randomized clinical trial. Subject dropout was introduced in the simulated data to generate ignorable and nonignorable missingness. Estimates of treatment group differences in mean change from baseline to endpoint from MMRM were, on average, markedly closer to the true value than estimates from LOCF in every scenario simulated. Standard errors and confidence intervals from MMRM accurately reflected the uncertainty of the estimates, whereas standard errors and confidence intervals from LOCF underestimated uncertainty.
An overview of longitudinal data analysis methods for neurological research.

PubMed

Locascio, Joseph J; Atri, Alireza

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to provide a concise, broad and readily accessible overview of longitudinal data analysis methods, aimed to be a practical guide for clinical investigators in neurology. In general, we advise that older, traditional methods, including (1) simple regression of the dependent variable on a time measure, (2) analyzing a single summary subject level number that indexes changes for each subject and (3) a general linear model approach with a fixed-subject effect, should be reserved for quick, simple or preliminary analyses. We advocate the general use of mixed-random and fixed-effect regression models for analyses of most longitudinal clinical studies. Under restrictive situations or to provide validation, we recommend: (1) repeated-measure analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), (2) ANCOVA for two time points, (3) generalized estimating equations and (4) latent growth curve/structural equation models.
The U.S. health production function: evidence from 2001 to 2009.

PubMed

Tseng, Hui-Kuan; Olsen, Reed

2016-03-01

This study estimates the impact of the 2007 financial crisis upon U.S. health as measured by age adjusted death rates. OLS regression results suggest that the average death rate was lower in the post-crisis period than the pre-crisis period. The majority of the average decline in the death rate was a result of the time period and not a result of changes in the values of the underlying explanatory variables. We continue to find this result even adding state fixed effects. Contrary to other research, we find that the unemployment rate has no statistically significant impact on death rates either for the U.S. as a whole or for any states individually. Rather, the impact of the financial crisis is felt via year fixed effects that increased over time during the post-crisis period.
Rituximab Retreatment in Rheumatoid Arthritis in a Real-life Cohort: Data from the CERERRA Collaboration.

PubMed

Chatzidionysiou, Katerina; Lie, Elisabeth; Lukina, Galina; Hetland, Merete L; Hauge, Ellen-Margrethe; Pavelka, Karel; Gabay, Cem; Scherer, Almut; Nordström, Dan; Canhao, Helena; Santos, Maria José; Tomsic, Matija; Rotar, Ziga; Hernández, M Victoria; Gomez-Reino, Juan; Ancuta, Ioan; Kvien, Tore K; van Vollenhoven, Ronald

2017-02-01

Several aspects of rituximab (RTX) retreatment in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) need to be further elucidated. The aim of this study was to describe the effect of repeated courses of RTX on disease activity and to compare 2 retreatment strategies, fixed-interval versus on-flare retreatment, in a large international, observational, collaborative study. In the first analysis, patients with RA who received at least 4 cycles with RTX were included. In the second analysis, patients who received at least 1 RTX retreatment and for whom information about the strategy for retreatment was available were identified. Two retreatment strategies (fixed-interval vs on-flare) were compared by fitting-adjusted, mixed-effects models of 28-joint Disease Activity Score (DAS28) over time for first and second retreatment. A total of 1530 patients met the eligibility criteria for the first analysis. Significant reductions of mean DAS28 between the starts of subsequent treatment cycles were observed (at start of first treatment cycle: 5.5; second: 4.3; third: 3.8; and fourth: 3.5), suggesting improved response after each additional cycle (p < 0.0001 for all pairwise comparisons). A total of 800 patients qualified for the second analysis: 616 were retreated on flare and 184 at fixed interval. For the first retreatment, the fixed-interval retreatment group yielded significantly better results than the on-flare group (estimated marginal mean DAS28 = 3.8, 95% CI 3.6-4.1 vs 4.6, 95% CI 4.5-4.7, p < 0.0001). Similar results were found for the second retreatment. Repeated treatment with RTX leads to further clinical improvement after the first course of RTX. A fixed-interval retreatment strategy seems to be more effective than on-flare retreatment.
Effects of season and nitrogen supply on the partitioning of recently fixed carbon in understory vegetation using a 13CO2 pulse labeling technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasselquist, Niles; Metcalfe, Daniel; Högberg, Peter

2013-04-01

Vegetation research in boreal forests has traditionally been focused on trees, with little attention given to understory vegetation. However, understory vegetation has been identified as a key driver for the functioning of boreal forests and may play an important role in the amount of carbon (C) that is entering and leaving these forested ecosystems. We conducted a large-scale 13C pulse labeling experiment to better understand how recently fixed C is allocated in the understory vegetation characteristic of boreal forests. We used transparent plastic chambers to pulse label the understory vegetation with enriched 13CO2 in the early (June) and late (August) growing seasons. This study was also replicated across a nitrogen (N) fertilization treatment to better understand the effects of N availability on C allocation patterns. We present data on the amount of 13C label found in different components of the understory vegetation (i.e. leaves, stems, lichens, mosses, rhizomes and fine roots) as well as CO2 efflux. Additionally, we provide estimates of C residence time (MRT) among the different components and examine how MRT of C is affected by seasonality and N availability. Seasonality had a large effect on how recently fixed C is allocated in understory vegetation, whereas N fertilization influenced the MRT of C in the different components of ericaceous vegetation. Moreover, there was a general trend that N additions increased the amount of 13C in CO2 efflux compared to the amount of 13C in biomass, suggesting that N fertilization may lead to an increase in the utilization of recently fixed C, whereas N-limitation promotes the storage of recently fixed C.
Surgical team composition has a major impact on effectiveness and costs in laparoscopic donor nephrectomy.

PubMed

Özdemir-van Brunschot, Denise M D; Warlé, Michiel C; van der Jagt, Michel F; Grutters, Janneke P C; van Horne, Sharon B C E; Kloke, Heinrich J; van der Vliet, Johannes A; Langenhuijsen, Johan F; d'Ancona, Frank C

2015-05-01

Limited evidence exists that optimization of surgical team composition may improve effectiveness of laparoscopic donor nephrectomy (LDN). A retrospective cohort study with 541 consecutive LDNs. From 2003 to 2012, surgical team composition was gradually optimized with regard to the surgeons' experience, proficient assistance and the use of fixed teams. Multivariable analysis showed that a surgical team with an experienced surgeon had a significantly shorter operation time (OT) (-18 min, 95% CI -28 to -9), less estimated blood loss (EBL) (-64 mL, 95% CI -108 to -19) and shorter length of stay (LOS) (-1 day, 95% CI -1.6 to 0). Proficient assistance was also independently associated with a shorter OT (-43 min, 95% CI -53 to -33) and reduced EBL (-58 mL, 95% CI -109 to -6), whereas those procedures performed by fixed teams were related to a shorter operation (-50 min, 95% CI -59 to -43) and warm ischemia time (-1.8, 95% CI -2.1 to -1.5), a reduced mean complication grade (-0.14 per patient, 95% CI -0.3 to -0.02) and a shorter LOS (-1.1 day, 95% CI -1.7 to -05). Health care costs for LDN by one staff surgeon with unproficient assistance were 7.707 Euro, whereas costs for LDN by two staff surgeons in fixed teams were 5.614 Euro. Surgical team composition has a major impact on variables that reflect the effectiveness of LDN from the donors' perspective. Health care costs are lower for LDNs performed by two experienced surgeons in fixed team composition. We advocate the use of two experienced surgeons in fixed team composition for LDN.
Random effects coefficient of determination for mixed and meta-analysis models

PubMed Central

Demidenko, Eugene; Sargent, James; Onega, Tracy

2011-01-01

The key feature of a mixed model is the presence of random effects. We have developed a coefficient, called the random effects coefficient of determination, Rr2, that estimates the proportion of the conditional variance of the dependent variable explained by random effects. This coefficient takes values from 0 to 1 and indicates how strong the random effects are. The difference from the earlier suggested fixed effects coefficient of determination is emphasized. If Rr2 is close to 0, there is weak support for random effects in the model because the reduction of the variance of the dependent variable due to random effects is small; consequently, random effects may be ignored and the model simplifies to standard linear regression. The value of Rr2 apart from 0 indicates the evidence of the variance reduction in support of the mixed model. If random effects coefficient of determination is close to 1 the variance of random effects is very large and random effects turn into free fixed effects—the model can be estimated using the dummy variable approach. We derive explicit formulas for Rr2 in three special cases: the random intercept model, the growth curve model, and meta-analysis model. Theoretical results are illustrated with three mixed model examples: (1) travel time to the nearest cancer center for women with breast cancer in the U.S., (2) cumulative time watching alcohol related scenes in movies among young U.S. teens, as a risk factor for early drinking onset, and (3) the classic example of the meta-analysis model for combination of 13 studies on tuberculosis vaccine. PMID:23750070
Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

2015-04-01

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series affecting Europe are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Moreover, possible future changes of clustering and return periods of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of NCEP reanalysis data (1973/1974 - 2012/2013). Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels) are used to assess return periods of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Additionally, 800 winters of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 general circulation model simulations for present (SRES scenario 20C: years 1960- 2000) and future (SRES scenario A1B: years 2060- 2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries in Europe, and estimated return periods are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of return periods are estimated for fixed return levels and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter return periods are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter return periods are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the return periods for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of preindustrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed return levels. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.
A Fixed-Pattern Noise Correction Method Based on Gray Value Compensation for TDI CMOS Image Sensor.

PubMed

Liu, Zhenwang; Xu, Jiangtao; Wang, Xinlei; Nie, Kaiming; Jin, Weimin

2015-09-16

In order to eliminate the fixed-pattern noise (FPN) in the output image of time-delay-integration CMOS image sensor (TDI-CIS), a FPN correction method based on gray value compensation is proposed. One hundred images are first captured under uniform illumination. Then, row FPN (RFPN) and column FPN (CFPN) are estimated based on the row-mean vector and column-mean vector of all collected images, respectively. Finally, RFPN are corrected by adding the estimated RFPN gray value to the original gray values of pixels in the corresponding row, and CFPN are corrected by subtracting the estimated CFPN gray value from the original gray values of pixels in the corresponding column. Experimental results based on a 128-stage TDI-CIS show that, after correcting the FPN in the image captured under uniform illumination with the proposed method, the standard-deviation of row-mean vector decreases from 5.6798 to 0.4214 LSB, and the standard-deviation of column-mean vector decreases from 15.2080 to 13.4623 LSB. Both kinds of FPN in the real images captured by TDI-CIS are eliminated effectively with the proposed method.
An economic evaluation of adaptive e-learning devices to promote weight loss via dietary change for people with obesity.

PubMed

Miners, Alec; Harris, Jody; Felix, Lambert; Murray, Elizabeth; Michie, Susan; Edwards, Phil

2012-07-07

The prevalence of obesity is over 25 % in many developed countries. Obesity is strongly associated with an increased risk of fatal and chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Therefore it has become a major public health concern for many economies. E-learning devices are a relatively novel approach to promoting dietary change. The new generation of devices are 'adaptive' and use interactive electronic media to facilitate teaching and learning. E-Learning has grown out of recent developments in information and communication technology, such as the Internet, interactive computer programmes, interactive television and mobile phones. The aim of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of e-learning devices as a method of promoting weight loss via dietary change. An economic evaluation was performed using decision modelling techniques. Outcomes were expressed in terms of Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs) and costs were estimated from a health services perspective. All parameter estimates were derived from the literature. A systematic review was undertaken to derive the estimate of relative treatment effect. The base case results from the e-Learning Economic Evaluation Model (e-LEEM) suggested that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was approximately £102,000 per Quality-Adjusted Life-Year (QALY) compared to conventional care. This finding was robust to most alternative assumptions, except a much lower fixed cost of providing e-learning devices. Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis showed that while the individual level EVPI was arguably negligible, the population level value was between £37 M and £170 M at a willingness to pay between £20,000 to £30,000 per additional QALY. The current economic evidence base suggests that e-learning devices for managing the weight of obese individuals are unlikely to be cost-effective unless their fixed costs are much lower than estimated or future devices prove to be much more effective.
Time-varying SMART design and data analysis methods for evaluating adaptive intervention effects.

PubMed

Dai, Tianjiao; Shete, Sanjay

2016-08-30

In a standard two-stage SMART design, the intermediate response to the first-stage intervention is measured at a fixed time point for all participants. Subsequently, responders and non-responders are re-randomized and the final outcome of interest is measured at the end of the study. To reduce the side effects and costs associated with first-stage interventions in a SMART design, we proposed a novel time-varying SMART design in which individuals are re-randomized to the second-stage interventions as soon as a pre-fixed intermediate response is observed. With this strategy, the duration of the first-stage intervention will vary. We developed a time-varying mixed effects model and a joint model that allows for modeling the outcomes of interest (intermediate and final) and the random durations of the first-stage interventions simultaneously. The joint model borrows strength from the survival sub-model in which the duration of the first-stage intervention (i.e., time to response to the first-stage intervention) is modeled. We performed a simulation study to evaluate the statistical properties of these models. Our simulation results showed that the two modeling approaches were both able to provide good estimations of the means of the final outcomes of all the embedded interventions in a SMART. However, the joint modeling approach was more accurate for estimating the coefficients of first-stage interventions and time of the intervention. We conclude that the joint modeling approach provides more accurate parameter estimates and a higher estimated coverage probability than the single time-varying mixed effects model, and we recommend the joint model for analyzing data generated from time-varying SMART designs. In addition, we showed that the proposed time-varying SMART design is cost-efficient and equally effective in selecting the optimal embedded adaptive intervention as the standard SMART design.
Evidence-Based Design of Fixed-Dose Combinations: Principles and Application to Pediatric Anti-Tuberculosis Therapy.

PubMed

Svensson, Elin M; Yngman, Gunnar; Denti, Paolo; McIlleron, Helen; Kjellsson, Maria C; Karlsson, Mats O

2018-05-01

Fixed-dose combination formulations where several drugs are included in one tablet are important for the implementation of many long-term multidrug therapies. The selection of optimal dose ratios and tablet content of a fixed-dose combination and the design of individualized dosing regimens is a complex task, requiring multiple simultaneous considerations. In this work, a methodology for the rational design of a fixed-dose combination was developed and applied to the case of a three-drug pediatric anti-tuberculosis formulation individualized on body weight. The optimization methodology synthesizes information about the intended use population, the pharmacokinetic properties of the drugs, therapeutic targets, and practical constraints. A utility function is included to penalize deviations from the targets; a sequential estimation procedure was developed for stable estimation of break-points for individualized dosing. The suggested optimized pediatric anti-tuberculosis fixed-dose combination was compared with the recently launched World Health Organization-endorsed formulation. The optimized fixed-dose combination included 15, 36, and 16% higher amounts of rifampicin, isoniazid, and pyrazinamide, respectively. The optimized fixed-dose combination is expected to result in overall less deviation from the therapeutic targets based on adult exposure and substantially fewer children with underexposure (below half the target). The development of this design tool can aid the implementation of evidence-based formulations, integrating available knowledge and practical considerations, to optimize drug exposures and thereby treatment outcomes.
Birth Order, Educational Attainment, and Earnings: An Investigation Using the PSID

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kantarevic, Jasmin; Mechoulan, Stephane

2006-01-01

We examine the implications of being early in the birth order, and whether a pattern exists within large families of falling then rising attainment with respect to birth order. Unlike other studies using U.S. data, we go beyond grade for age and look at racial differences. Drawing from OLS and fixed effects estimations, we find that being…
The Performance of Multilevel Growth Curve Models under an Autoregressive Moving Average Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Daniel L.; Pituch, Keenan A.

2009-01-01

The authors examined the robustness of multilevel linear growth curve modeling to misspecification of an autoregressive moving average process. As previous research has shown (J. Ferron, R. Dailey, & Q. Yi, 2002; O. Kwok, S. G. West, & S. B. Green, 2007; S. Sivo, X. Fan, & L. Witta, 2005), estimates of the fixed effects were unbiased, and Type I…
The effects of the forage-to-concentrate ratio on the conversion of digestible energy to metabolizable energy in growing beef steers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The net energy of a feed, required for beef cattle growth models, is often determined from metabolizable energy using cubic equations established by Garrett (1980). For the determination of these equations, ME was estimated using a fixed efficiency of 82% of the digestible energy. However, methane e...
Modeling of Academic Achievement of Primary School Students in Ethiopia Using Bayesian Multilevel Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sebro, Negusse Yohannes; Goshu, Ayele Taye

2017-01-01

This study aims to explore Bayesian multilevel modeling to investigate variations of average academic achievement of grade eight school students. A sample of 636 students is randomly selected from 26 private and government schools by a two-stage stratified sampling design. Bayesian method is used to estimate the fixed and random effects. Input and…
Design of microarray experiments for genetical genomics studies.

PubMed

Bueno Filho, Júlio S S; Gilmour, Steven G; Rosa, Guilherme J M

2006-10-01

Microarray experiments have been used recently in genetical genomics studies, as an additional tool to understand the genetic mechanisms governing variation in complex traits, such as for estimating heritabilities of mRNA transcript abundances, for mapping expression quantitative trait loci, and for inferring regulatory networks controlling gene expression. Several articles on the design of microarray experiments discuss situations in which treatment effects are assumed fixed and without any structure. In the case of two-color microarray platforms, several authors have studied reference and circular designs. Here, we discuss the optimal design of microarray experiments whose goals refer to specific genetic questions. Some examples are used to illustrate the choice of a design for comparing fixed, structured treatments, such as genotypic groups. Experiments targeting single genes or chromosomic regions (such as with transgene research) or multiple epistatic loci (such as within a selective phenotyping context) are discussed. In addition, microarray experiments in which treatments refer to families or to subjects (within family structures or complex pedigrees) are presented. In these cases treatments are more appropriately considered to be random effects, with specific covariance structures, in which the genetic goals relate to the estimation of genetic variances and the heritability of transcriptional abundances.

Quantifying the impact of time-varying baseline risk adjustment in the self-controlled risk interval design.

PubMed

Li, Lingling; Kulldorff, Martin; Russek-Cohen, Estelle; Kawai, Alison Tse; Hua, Wei

2015-12-01

The self-controlled risk interval design is commonly used to assess the association between an acute exposure and an adverse event of interest, implicitly adjusting for fixed, non-time-varying covariates. Explicit adjustment needs to be made for time-varying covariates, for example, age in young children. It can be performed via either a fixed or random adjustment. The random-adjustment approach can provide valid point and interval estimates but requires access to individual-level data for an unexposed baseline sample. The fixed-adjustment approach does not have this requirement and will provide a valid point estimate but may underestimate the variance. We conducted a comprehensive simulation study to evaluate their performance. We designed the simulation study using empirical data from the Food and Drug Administration-sponsored Mini-Sentinel Post-licensure Rapid Immunization Safety Monitoring Rotavirus Vaccines and Intussusception study in children 5-36.9 weeks of age. The time-varying confounder is age. We considered a variety of design parameters including sample size, relative risk, time-varying baseline risks, and risk interval length. The random-adjustment approach has very good performance in almost all considered settings. The fixed-adjustment approach can be used as a good alternative when the number of events used to estimate the time-varying baseline risks is at least the number of events used to estimate the relative risk, which is almost always the case. We successfully identified settings in which the fixed-adjustment approach can be used as a good alternative and provided guidelines on the selection and implementation of appropriate analyses for the self-controlled risk interval design. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Estimating the Richness of a Population When the Maximum Number of Classes Is Fixed: A Nonparametric Solution to an Archaeological Problem

PubMed Central

Eren, Metin I.; Chao, Anne; Hwang, Wen-Han; Colwell, Robert K.

2012-01-01

Background Estimating assemblage species or class richness from samples remains a challenging, but essential, goal. Though a variety of statistical tools for estimating species or class richness have been developed, they are all singly-bounded: assuming only a lower bound of species or classes. Nevertheless there are numerous situations, particularly in the cultural realm, where the maximum number of classes is fixed. For this reason, a new method is needed to estimate richness when both upper and lower bounds are known. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we introduce a new method for estimating class richness: doubly-bounded confidence intervals (both lower and upper bounds are known). We specifically illustrate our new method using the Chao1 estimator, rarefaction, and extrapolation, although any estimator of asymptotic richness can be used in our method. Using a case study of Clovis stone tools from the North American Lower Great Lakes region, we demonstrate that singly-bounded richness estimators can yield confidence intervals with upper bound estimates larger than the possible maximum number of classes, while our new method provides estimates that make empirical sense. Conclusions/Significance Application of the new method for constructing doubly-bound richness estimates of Clovis stone tools permitted conclusions to be drawn that were not otherwise possible with singly-bounded richness estimates, namely, that Lower Great Lakes Clovis Paleoindians utilized a settlement pattern that was probably more logistical in nature than residential. However, our new method is not limited to archaeological applications. It can be applied to any set of data for which there is a fixed maximum number of classes, whether that be site occupancy models, commercial products (e.g. athletic shoes), or census information (e.g. nationality, religion, age, race). PMID:22666316
Associations among job demands and resources, work engagement, and psychological distress: fixed-effects model analysis in Japan

PubMed Central

Oshio, Takashi; Inoue, Akiomi

2018-01-01

Objectives: We examined the associations among job demands and resources, work engagement, and psychological distress, adjusted for time-invariant individual attributes. Methods: We used data from a Japanese occupational cohort survey, which included 18,702 observations of 7,843 individuals. We investigated how work engagement, measured by the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, was associated with key aspects of job demands and resources, using fixed-effects regression models. We further estimated the fixed-effects models to assess how work engagement moderated the association between each job characteristic and psychological distress as measured by Kessler 6 scores. Results: The fixed-effects models showed that work engagement was positively associated with job resources, as did pooled cross-sectional and prospective cohort models. Specifically, the standardized regression coefficients (β) were 0.148 and 0.120 for extrinsic reward and decision latitude, respectively, compared to -0.159 and 0.020 for role ambiguity and workload and time pressure, respectively (p < 0.001 for all associations). Work engagement modestly moderated the associations of psychological distress with workload and time pressure and extrinsic reward; a one-standard deviation increase in work engagement moderated their associations by 19.2% (p < 0.001) and 11.3% (p = 0.034), respectively. Conclusions: Work engagement was associated with job demands and resources, which is in line with the theoretical prediction of the job demands-resources model, even after controlling for time-invariant individual attributes. Work engagement moderated the association between selected aspects of job demands and resources and psychological distress. PMID:29563368
Effect of distance-related heterogeneity on population size estimates from point counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, Murray G.; Dawson, Deanna K.

2009-01-01

Point counts are used widely to index bird populations. Variation in the proportion of birds counted is a known source of error, and for robust inference it has been advocated that counts be converted to estimates of absolute population size. We used simulation to assess nine methods for the conduct and analysis of point counts when the data included distance-related heterogeneity of individual detection probability. Distance from the observer is a ubiquitous source of heterogeneity, because nearby birds are more easily detected than distant ones. Several recent methods (dependent double-observer, time of first detection, time of detection, independent multiple-observer, and repeated counts) do not account for distance-related heterogeneity, at least in their simpler forms. We assessed bias in estimates of population size by simulating counts with fixed radius w over four time intervals (occasions). Detection probability per occasion was modeled as a half-normal function of distance with scale parameter sigma and intercept g(0) = 1.0. Bias varied with sigma/w; values of sigma inferred from published studies were often 50% for a 100-m fixed-radius count. More critically, the bias of adjusted counts sometimes varied more than that of unadjusted counts, and inference from adjusted counts would be less robust. The problem was not solved by using mixture models or including distance as a covariate. Conventional distance sampling performed well in simulations, but its assumptions are difficult to meet in the field. We conclude that no existing method allows effective estimation of population size from point counts.
Organ dose conversion coefficients for tube current modulated CT protocols for an adult population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Wanyi; Tian, Xiaoyu; Sahbaee, Pooyan; Zhang, Yakun; Segars, William Paul; Samei, Ehsan

2016-03-01

In computed tomography (CT), patient-specific organ dose can be estimated using pre-calculated organ dose conversion coefficients (organ dose normalized by CTDIvol, h factor) database, taking into account patient size and scan coverage. The conversion coefficients have been previously estimated for routine body protocol classes, grouped by scan coverage, across an adult population for fixed tube current modulated CT. The coefficients, however, do not include the widely utilized tube current (mA) modulation scheme, which significantly impacts organ dose. This study aims to extend the h factors and the corresponding dose length product (DLP) to create effective dose conversion coefficients (k factor) database incorporating various tube current modulation strengths. Fifty-eight extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantoms were included in this study representing population anatomy variation in clinical practice. Four mA profiles, representing weak to strong mA dependency on body attenuation, were generated for each phantom and protocol class. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate the organ dose. The organ dose and effective dose was further normalized by CTDIvol and DLP to derive the h factors and k factors, respectively. The h factors and k factors were summarized in an exponential regression model as a function of body size. Such a population-based mathematical model can provide a comprehensive organ dose estimation given body size and CTDIvol. The model was integrated into an iPhone app XCATdose version 2, enhancing the 1st version based upon fixed tube current modulation. With the organ dose calculator, physicists, physicians, and patients can conveniently estimate organ dose.
Efficacy of febuxostat in hyperuricemic patients with mild-to-moderate chronic kidney disease: a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

PubMed Central

Zeng, Xiang Xia; Tang, Yunliang; Hu, Kaixiang; Zhou, Xi; Wang, Jiao; Zhu, Lingyan; Liu, Jianying; Xu, Jixiong

2018-01-01

Abstract Background: To investigate the efficacy of febuxostat in hyperuricemic patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), relevant randomized clinical trials (RCTs) were analyzed. Methods: We used PubMed, Medline, ISI Web of Science, CBMdisc, and Cochrane Library databases to conduct a systematic literature research. A fixed-effects model was used to evaluate the standardized mean differences (SMDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We conducted subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, and analyzed publication bias, to comprehensively estimate the renoprotective effects of febuxostat in hyperuricemic patients with CKD. Results: Among 296 retrieved studies, 5 relevant RCTs were included in the meta-analysis. The result showed that serum estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was improved after febuxostat treatment in hyperuricemic patients with CKD, with an SMD (95% CI) of 0.24 [−0.17 to 0.43] and P = .67 (fixed-effects model). No heterogeneity was observed across studies (I2 = 0% and P = .67). Subgroup analysis suggested that treatment-related reductions in serum eGFR levels were not related to drug doses, intervention times, or region. Conclusions: The present meta-analysis suggests that febuxostat may slow the progression of mild-to-moderate CKD. Given the limited number of included studies, additional large sample-size RCTs are required to determine the long-term renoprotective effects of febuxostat in hyperuricemic patients with CKD. PMID:29595642
Efficacy of febuxostat in hyperuricemic patients with mild-to-moderate chronic kidney disease: a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials: A PRISMA-compliant article.

PubMed

Zeng, Xiang Xia; Tang, Yunliang; Hu, Kaixiang; Zhou, Xi; Wang, Jiao; Zhu, Lingyan; Liu, Jianying; Xu, Jixiong

2018-03-01

To investigate the efficacy of febuxostat in hyperuricemic patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), relevant randomized clinical trials (RCTs) were analyzed. We used PubMed, Medline, ISI Web of Science, CBMdisc, and Cochrane Library databases to conduct a systematic literature research. A fixed-effects model was used to evaluate the standardized mean differences (SMDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We conducted subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, and analyzed publication bias, to comprehensively estimate the renoprotective effects of febuxostat in hyperuricemic patients with CKD. Among 296 retrieved studies, 5 relevant RCTs were included in the meta-analysis. The result showed that serum estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was improved after febuxostat treatment in hyperuricemic patients with CKD, with an SMD (95% CI) of 0.24 [-0.17 to 0.43] and P = .67 (fixed-effects model). No heterogeneity was observed across studies (I = 0% and P = .67). Subgroup analysis suggested that treatment-related reductions in serum eGFR levels were not related to drug doses, intervention times, or region. The present meta-analysis suggests that febuxostat may slow the progression of mild-to-moderate CKD. Given the limited number of included studies, additional large sample-size RCTs are required to determine the long-term renoprotective effects of febuxostat in hyperuricemic patients with CKD.
Stability of children's insurance coverage and implications for access to care: evidence from the Survey of Income and Program Participation.

PubMed

Buchmueller, Thomas; Orzol, Sean M; Shore-Sheppard, Lara

2014-06-01

Even as the number of children with health insurance has increased, coverage transitions--movement into and out of coverage and between public and private insurance--have become more common. Using data from 1996 to 2005, we examine whether insurance instability has implications for access to primary care. Because unobserved factors related to parental behavior and child health may affect both the stability of coverage and utilization, we estimate the relationship between insurance and the probability that a child has at least one physician visit per year using a model that includes child fixed effects to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Although we find that unobserved heterogeneity is an important factor influencing cross-sectional correlations, conditioning on child fixed effects we find a statistically and economically significant relationship between insurance coverage stability and access to care. Children who have part-year public or private insurance are more likely to have at least one doctor's visit than children who are uninsured for a full year, but less likely than children with full-year coverage. We find comparable effects for public and private insurance. Although cross-sectional analyses suggest that transitions directly between public and private insurance are associated with lower rates of utilization, the evidence of such an effect is much weaker when we condition on child fixed effects.
Random regression models using Legendre orthogonal polynomials to evaluate the milk production of Alpine goats.

PubMed

Silva, F G; Torres, R A; Brito, L F; Euclydes, R F; Melo, A L P; Souza, N O; Ribeiro, J I; Rodrigues, M T

2013-12-11

The objective of this study was to identify the best random regression model using Legendre orthogonal polynomials to evaluate Alpine goats genetically and to estimate the parameters for test day milk yield. On the test day, we analyzed 20,710 records of milk yield of 667 goats from the Goat Sector of the Universidade Federal de Viçosa. The evaluated models had combinations of distinct fitting orders for polynomials (2-5), random genetic (1-7), and permanent environmental (1-7) fixed curves and a number of classes for residual variance (2, 4, 5, and 6). WOMBAT software was used for all genetic analyses. A random regression model using the best Legendre orthogonal polynomial for genetic evaluation of milk yield on the test day of Alpine goats considered a fixed curve of order 4, curve of genetic additive effects of order 2, curve of permanent environmental effects of order 7, and a minimum of 5 classes of residual variance because it was the most economical model among those that were equivalent to the complete model by the likelihood ratio test. Phenotypic variance and heritability were higher at the end of the lactation period, indicating that the length of lactation has more genetic components in relation to the production peak and persistence. It is very important that the evaluation utilizes the best combination of fixed, genetic additive and permanent environmental regressions, and number of classes of heterogeneous residual variance for genetic evaluation using random regression models, thereby enhancing the precision and accuracy of the estimates of parameters and prediction of genetic values.
Combining fixed effects and instrumental variable approaches for estimating the effect of psychosocial job quality on mental health: evidence from 13 waves of a nationally representative cohort study.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; Aitken, Zoe; Kavanagh, Anne; LaMontagne, Anthony D; Pega, Frank; Petrie, Dennis

2017-06-23

Previous studies suggest that poor psychosocial job quality is a risk factor for mental health problems, but they use conventional regression analytic methods that cannot rule out reverse causation, unmeasured time-invariant confounding and reporting bias. This study combines two quasi-experimental approaches to improve causal inference by better accounting for these biases: (i) linear fixed effects regression analysis and (ii) linear instrumental variable analysis. We extract 13 annual waves of national cohort data including 13 260 working-age (18-64 years) employees. The exposure variable is self-reported level of psychosocial job quality. The instruments used are two common workplace entitlements. The outcome variable is the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5). We adjust for measured time-varying confounders. In the fixed effects regression analysis adjusted for time-varying confounders, a 1-point increase in psychosocial job quality is associated with a 1.28-point improvement in mental health on the MHI-5 scale (95% CI: 1.17, 1.40; P < 0.001). When the fixed effects was combined with the instrumental variable analysis, a 1-point increase psychosocial job quality is related to 1.62-point improvement on the MHI-5 scale (95% CI: -0.24, 3.48; P = 0.088). Our quasi-experimental results provide evidence to confirm job stressors as risk factors for mental ill health using methods that improve causal inference. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com
Estimating residual fault hitting rates by recapture sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Larry; Gupta, Rajan

1988-01-01

For the recapture debugging design introduced by Nayak (1988) the problem of estimating the hitting rates of the faults remaining in the system is considered. In the context of a conditional likelihood, moment estimators are derived and are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Fixed sample properties of the moment estimators are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators. Properties of the conditional model are investigated such as the asymptotic distribution of linear functions of the fault hitting frequencies and a representation of the full data vector in terms of a sequence of independent random vectors. It is assumed that the residual hitting rates follow a log linear rate model and that the testing process is truncated when the gaps between the detection of new errors exceed a fixed amount of time.
A randomized controlled trial of self-perceived pain, discomfort, and impairment of jaw function in children undergoing orthodontic treatment with fixed or removable appliances.

PubMed

Wiedel, Anna-Paulina; Bondemark, Lars

2016-03-01

To compare patients' perceptions of fixed and removable appliance therapy for correction of anterior crossbite in the mixed dentition, with special reference to perceived pain, discomfort, and impairment of jaw function. Sixty-two patients with anterior crossbite and functional shift were recruited consecutively and randomized for treatment with fixed appliances (brackets and archwires) or removable appliances (acrylic plates and protruding springs). A questionnaire, previously found to be valid and reliable, was used for evaluation at the following time points: before appliance insertion, on the evening of the day of insertion, every day/evening for 7 days after insertion, and at the first and second scheduled appointments (after 4 and 8 weeks, respectively). Pain and discomfort intensity were higher for the first 3 days for the fixed appliance. Pain and discomfort scores overall peaked on day 2. Adverse effects on school and leisure activities were reported more frequently in the removable than in the fixed appliance group. The fixed appliance group reported more difficulty eating different kinds of hard and soft food, while the removable appliance group experienced more speech difficulties. No significant intergroup difference was found for self-estimated disturbance of appearance between the appliances. The general levels of pain and discomfort were low to moderate in both groups. There were some statistically significant differences between the groups, but these were only minor and with minor clinical relevance. As both appliances were generally well accepted by the patients, either fixed or removable appliance therapy can be recommended.
Lesson learned from monitoring the environmental effects of construction of the first offshore wind farm in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, J.; Potty, G. R.; King, J. W.; Gallien, D. R.; Khan, A. A.; Vigness Raposa, K.; Giard, J. L.; Frankel, A. S.; Mason, T.; Popper, A. N.; Hawkins, A. D.; Crocker, S. E.

2016-02-01

Noise radiation from pile driving activities were monitored using multiple sensors during the construction of the USA's first offshore wind farm located 3 nm off Block Island, RI. The 30-megawatt Block Island Wind Farm (BIWF) consists of five turbines in water depths of approximately 30 m and is scheduled to be online in 2016. The substructure for these turbines consists of jacket type construction with piles driven to pin the structure to the seabed. Pile driving operations generate intense sound, impulsive in nature at close range, which radiates into the surrounding air, water and sediment. The underwater acoustic measurement platforms consisted of a towed array consisting of eight hydrophones, two fixed moorings with four hydrophones each, a fixed sensor package for measuring particle velocity, and boat-deployed dipping hydrophones. The hydrophone array was towed from a position 1 km from the pile driving location to 15 km distance from the construction. The fixed moorings were deployed at 10 km and 15 km from the pile location. The fixed moorings consisted of four hydrophones each at depths of 10, 15, 20 and 25 m. Near field measurements of the underwater acoustic signals from the pile driving were collected with a tetrahedral array deployed at 500 m from the pile driving location about 1 m above the seabed. The boat-deployed dipping hydrophones sampled the acoustic field at locations from 0.5 km to 20 km from the pile driving locations. Based on these acoustic measurements and propagation modeling, the acoustic pressure field as a function of range and depth from the pile is estimated. The transition from fast-rise-time impulsive signals at close range to slow-rise-time non-impulsive signals at longer ranges will be addressed. This study will provide the required information to qualify the different zones of potential marine mammal effects (zones of injury, behavioral effects etc.) and to estimate exposure to fishes and other species. [Work supported by Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)
Assessing the costs of mobile voluntary counseling and testing at the work place versus facility based voluntary counseling and testing in Namibia.

PubMed

de Beer, Ingrid; Chani, Kudakwashe; Feeley, Frank G; Rinke de Wit, Tobias F; Sweeney-Bindels, Els; Mulongeni, Pancho

2015-01-01

Bophelo! is a mobile voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) and wellness screening program operated by PharmAccess at workplaces in Namibia, funded from both public and private resources. Publicly funded fixed site New Start centers provide similar services in Namibia. At this time of this study, no comparative information on the cost effectiveness of mobile versus fixed site service provision was available in Namibia to inform future programming for scale-up of VCT. The objectives of the study were to assess the costs of mobile VCT and wellness service delivery in Namibia and to compare the costs and effectiveness with fixed site VCT testing in Namibia. The full direct costs of all resources used by the mobile and fixed site testing programs and data on people tested and outcomes were obtained from PharmAccess and New Start centers in Namibia. Data were also collected on the source of funding, both public donor funding and private funding through contributions from employers. The data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel to determine the average cost per person tested for HIV. In 2009, the average cost per person tested for HIV at the Bophelo! mobile clinic was an estimated US$60.59 (US$310,451 for the 5124 people tested). Private employer contributions to the testing costs reduced the public cost per person tested to US$37.76. The incremental cost per person associated with testing for conditions other than HIV infection was US$11.35, an increase of 18.7%, consisting of the costs of additional tests (US$8.62) and staff time (US$2.73). The cost of testing one person for HIV in 2009 at the New Start centers was estimated at US$58.21 (US$4,082,936 for the 70 143 people tested). Mobile clinics can provide cost-effective wellness testing services at the workplace and have the potential to mobilize local private funding sources. Providing wellness testing in addition to VCT can help address the growing issue of non-communicable diseases.
Characterizing Speech Intelligibility in Noise After Wide Dynamic Range Compression.

PubMed

Rhebergen, Koenraad S; Maalderink, Thijs H; Dreschler, Wouter A

The effects of nonlinear signal processing on speech intelligibility in noise are difficult to evaluate. Often, the effects are examined by comparing speech intelligibility scores with and without processing measured at fixed signal to noise ratios (SNRs) or by comparing the adaptive measured speech reception thresholds corresponding to 50% intelligibility (SRT50) with and without processing. These outcome measures might not be optimal. Measuring at fixed SNRs can be affected by ceiling or floor effects, because the range of relevant SNRs is not know in advance. The SRT50 is less time consuming, has a fixed performance level (i.e., 50% correct), but the SRT50 could give a limited view, because we hypothesize that the effect of most nonlinear signal processing algorithms at the SRT50 cannot be generalized to other points of the psychometric function. In this article, we tested the value of estimating the entire psychometric function. We studied the effect of wide dynamic range compression (WDRC) on speech intelligibility in stationary, and interrupted speech-shaped noise in normal-hearing subjects, using a fast method-based local linear fitting approach and by two adaptive procedures. The measured performance differences for conditions with and without WDRC for the psychometric functions in stationary noise and interrupted speech-shaped noise show that the effects of WDRC on speech intelligibility are SNR dependent. We conclude that favorable and unfavorable effects of WDRC on speech intelligibility can be missed if the results are presented in terms of SRT50 values only.
A comparison of two sampling designs for fish assemblage assessment in a large river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kiraly, Ian A.; Coghlan, Stephen M.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Hayes, Daniel

2014-01-01

We compared the efficiency of stratified random and fixed-station sampling designs to characterize fish assemblages in anticipation of dam removal on the Penobscot River, the largest river in Maine. We used boat electrofishing methods in both sampling designs. Multiple 500-m transects were selected randomly and electrofished in each of nine strata within the stratified random sampling design. Within the fixed-station design, up to 11 transects (1,000 m) were electrofished, all of which had been sampled previously. In total, 88 km of shoreline were electrofished during summer and fall in 2010 and 2011, and 45,874 individuals of 34 fish species were captured. Species-accumulation and dissimilarity curve analyses indicated that all sampling effort, other than fall 2011 under the fixed-station design, provided repeatable estimates of total species richness and proportional abundances. Overall, our sampling designs were similar in precision and efficiency for sampling fish assemblages. The fixed-station design was negatively biased for estimating the abundance of species such as Common Shiner Luxilus cornutus and Fallfish Semotilus corporalis and was positively biased for estimating biomass for species such as White Sucker Catostomus commersonii and Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar. However, we found no significant differences between the designs for proportional catch and biomass per unit effort, except in fall 2011. The difference observed in fall 2011 was due to limitations on the number and location of fixed sites that could be sampled, rather than an inherent bias within the design. Given the results from sampling in the Penobscot River, application of the stratified random design is preferable to the fixed-station design due to less potential for bias caused by varying sampling effort, such as what occurred in the fall 2011 fixed-station sample or due to purposeful site selection.
Differences in night-time and daytime ambulatory blood pressure when diurnal periods are defined by self-report, fixed-times, and actigraphy: Improving the Detection of Hypertension study.

PubMed

Booth, John N; Muntner, Paul; Abdalla, Marwah; Diaz, Keith M; Viera, Anthony J; Reynolds, Kristi; Schwartz, Joseph E; Shimbo, Daichi

2016-02-01

To determine whether defining diurnal periods by self-report, fixed-time, or actigraphy produce different estimates of night-time and daytime ambulatory blood pressure (ABP). Over a median of 28 days, 330 participants completed two 24-h ABP and actigraphy monitoring periods with sleep diaries. Fixed night-time and daytime periods were defined as 0000-0600 h and 1000-2000 h, respectively. Using the first ABP period, within-individual differences for mean night-time and daytime ABP and kappa statistics for night-time and daytime hypertension (systolic/diastolic ABP≥120/70 mmHg and ≥135/85 mmHg, respectively) were estimated comparing self-report, fixed-time, or actigraphy for defining diurnal periods. Reproducibility of ABP was also estimated. Within-individual mean differences in night-time systolic ABP were small, suggesting little bias, when comparing the three approaches used to define diurnal periods. The distribution of differences, represented by 95% confidence intervals (CI), in night-time systolic and diastolic ABP and daytime systolic and diastolic ABP was narrowest for self-report versus actigraphy. For example, mean differences (95% CI) in night-time systolic ABP for self-report versus fixed-time was -0.53 (-6.61, +5.56) mmHg, self-report versus actigraphy was 0.91 (-3.61, +5.43) mmHg, and fixed-time versus actigraphy was 1.43 (-5.59, +8.46) mmHg. Agreement for night-time and daytime hypertension was highest for self-report versus actigraphy: kappa statistic (95% CI) = 0.91 (0.86,0.96) and 1.00 (0.98,1.00), respectively. The reproducibility of mean ABP and hypertension categories was similar using each approach. Given the high agreement with actigraphy, these data support using self-report to define diurnal periods on ABP monitoring. Further, the use of fixed-time periods may be a reasonable alternative approach.
Final report on the development of the geographic position locator (GPL). Volume 12. Data reduction A3FIX: subroutine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Niven, W.A.

The long-term position accuracy of an inertial navigation system depends primarily on the ability of the gyroscopes to maintain a near-perfect reference orientation. Small imperfections in the gyroscopes cause them to drift slowly away from their initial orientation, thereby producing errors in the system's calculations of position. The A3FIX is a computer program subroutine developed to estimate inertial navigation system gyro drift rates with the navigator stopped or moving slowly. It processes data of the navigation system's position error to arrive at estimates of the north- south and vertical gyro drift rates. It also computes changes in the east--west gyromore » drift rate if the navigator is stopped and if data on the system's azimuth error changes are also available. The report describes the subroutine, its capabilities, and gives examples of gyro drift rate estimates that were computed during the testing of a high quality inertial system under the PASSPORT program at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory. The appendices provide mathematical derivations of the estimation equations that are used in the subroutine, a discussion of the estimation errors, and a program listing and flow diagram. The appendices also contain a derivation of closed form solutions to the navigation equations to clarify the effects that motion and time-varying drift rates induce in the phase-plane relationships between the Schulerfiltered errors in latitude and azimuth snd between the Schulerfiltered errors in latitude and longitude. (auth)« less
Towards a sampling strategy for the assessment of forest condition at European level: combining country estimates.

PubMed

Travaglini, Davide; Fattorini, Lorenzo; Barbati, Anna; Bottalico, Francesca; Corona, Piermaria; Ferretti, Marco; Chirici, Gherardo

2013-04-01

A correct characterization of the status and trend of forest condition is essential to support reporting processes at national and international level. An international forest condition monitoring has been implemented in Europe since 1987 under the auspices of the International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests). The monitoring is based on harmonized methodologies, with individual countries being responsible for its implementation. Due to inconsistencies and problems in sampling design, however, the ICP Forests network is not able to produce reliable quantitative estimates of forest condition at European and sometimes at country level. This paper proposes (1) a set of requirements for status and change assessment and (2) a harmonized sampling strategy able to provide unbiased and consistent estimators of forest condition parameters and of their changes at both country and European level. Under the assumption that a common definition of forest holds among European countries, monitoring objectives, parameters of concern and accuracy indexes are stated. On the basis of fixed-area plot sampling performed independently in each country, an unbiased and consistent estimator of forest defoliation indexes is obtained at both country and European level, together with conservative estimators of their sampling variance and power in the detection of changes. The strategy adopts a probabilistic sampling scheme based on fixed-area plots selected by means of systematic or stratified schemes. Operative guidelines for its application are provided.
32 CFR 37.560 - Must I be able to estimate project expenditures precisely in order to justify use of a fixed...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... of Defense OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE DoD GRANT AND AGREEMENT REGULATIONS TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT AGREEMENTS Pre-Award Business Evaluation Fixed-Support Or Expenditure-Based Approach § 37.560 Must...

Estimating the price elasticity of beer: meta-analysis of data with heterogeneity, dependence, and publication bias.

PubMed

Nelson, Jon P

2014-01-01

Precise estimates of price elasticities are important for alcohol tax policy. Using meta-analysis, this paper corrects average beer elasticities for heterogeneity, dependence, and publication selection bias. A sample of 191 estimates is obtained from 114 primary studies. Simple and weighted means are reported. Dependence is addressed by restricting number of estimates per study, author-restricted samples, and author-specific variables. Publication bias is addressed using funnel graph, trim-and-fill, and Egger's intercept model. Heterogeneity and selection bias are examined jointly in meta-regressions containing moderator variables for econometric methodology, primary data, and precision of estimates. Results for fixed- and random-effects regressions are reported. Country-specific effects and sample time periods are unimportant, but several methodology variables help explain the dispersion of estimates. In models that correct for selection bias and heterogeneity, the average beer price elasticity is about -0.20, which is less elastic by 50% compared to values commonly used in alcohol tax policy simulations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Towards a systematic assessment of errors in diffusion Monte Carlo calculations of semiconductors: Case study of zinc selenide and zinc oxide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Jaehyung; Wagner, Lucas K.; Ertekin, Elif, E-mail: ertekin@illinois.edu

2015-12-14

The fixed node diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) method has attracted interest in recent years as a way to calculate properties of solid materials with high accuracy. However, the framework for the calculation of properties such as total energies, atomization energies, and excited state energies is not yet fully established. Several outstanding questions remain as to the effect of pseudopotentials, the magnitude of the fixed node error, and the size of supercell finite size effects. Here, we consider in detail the semiconductors ZnSe and ZnO and carry out systematic studies to assess the magnitude of the energy differences arising from controlledmore » and uncontrolled approximations in DMC. The former include time step errors and supercell finite size effects for ground and optically excited states, and the latter include pseudopotentials, the pseudopotential localization approximation, and the fixed node approximation. We find that for these compounds, the errors can be controlled to good precision using modern computational resources and that quantum Monte Carlo calculations using Dirac-Fock pseudopotentials can offer good estimates of both cohesive energy and the gap of these systems. We do however observe differences in calculated optical gaps that arise when different pseudopotentials are used.« less
Individualizing drug dosage with longitudinal data.

PubMed

Zhu, Xiaolu; Qu, Annie

2016-10-30

We propose a two-step procedure to personalize drug dosage over time under the framework of a log-linear mixed-effect model. We model patients' heterogeneity using subject-specific random effects, which are treated as the realizations of an unspecified stochastic process. We extend the conditional quadratic inference function to estimate both fixed-effect coefficients and individual random effects on a longitudinal training data sample in the first step and propose an adaptive procedure to estimate new patients' random effects and provide dosage recommendations for new patients in the second step. An advantage of our approach is that we do not impose any distribution assumption on estimating random effects. Moreover, the new approach can accommodate more general time-varying covariates corresponding to random effects. We show in theory and numerical studies that the proposed method is more efficient compared with existing approaches, especially when covariates are time varying. In addition, a real data example of a clozapine study confirms that our two-step procedure leads to more accurate drug dosage recommendations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Defining and estimating causal direct and indirect effects when setting the mediator to specific values is not feasible

PubMed Central

Lok, Judith J.

2016-01-01

Natural direct and indirect effects decompose the effect of a treatment into the part that is mediated by a covariate (the mediator) and the part that is not. Their definitions rely on the concept of outcomes under treatment with the mediator “set” to its value without treatment. Typically, the mechanism through which the mediator is set to this value is left unspecified, and in many applications it may be challenging to fix the mediator to particular values for each unit or patient. Moreover, how one sets the mediator may affect the distribution of the outcome. This article introduces “organic” direct and indirect effects, which can be defined and estimated without relying on setting the mediator to specific values. Organic direct and indirect effects can be applied for example to estimate how much of the effect of some treatments for HIV/AIDS on mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection is mediated by the effect of the treatment on the HIV viral load in the blood of the mother. PMID:27229743
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Breast Cancer Control Interventions in Peru

PubMed Central

Zelle, Sten G.; Vidaurre, Tatiana; Abugattas, Julio E.; Manrique, Javier E.; Sarria, Gustavo; Jeronimo, José; Seinfeld, Janice N.; Lauer, Jeremy A.; Sepulveda, Cecilia R.; Venegas, Diego; Baltussen, Rob

2013-01-01

Objectives In Peru, a country with constrained health resources, breast cancer control is characterized by late stage treatment and poor survival. To support breast cancer control in Peru, this study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of different breast cancer control interventions relevant for the Peruvian context. Methods We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) according to WHO-CHOICE guidelines, from a healthcare perspective. Different screening, early detection, palliative, and treatment interventions were evaluated using mathematical modeling. Effectiveness estimates were based on observational studies, modeling, and on information from Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Neoplásicas (INEN). Resource utilizations and unit costs were based on estimates from INEN and observational studies. Cost-effectiveness estimates are in 2012 United States dollars (US$) per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Results The current breast cancer program in Peru ($8,426 per DALY averted) could be improved through implementing triennial or biennial screening strategies. These strategies seem the most cost-effective in Peru, particularly when mobile mammography is applied (from $4,125 per DALY averted), or when both CBE screening and mammography screening are combined (from $4,239 per DALY averted). Triennially, these interventions costs between $63 million and $72 million per year. Late stage treatment, trastuzumab therapy and annual screening strategies are the least cost-effective. Conclusions Our analysis suggests that breast cancer control in Peru should be oriented towards early detection through combining fixed and mobile mammography screening (age 45-69) triennially. However, a phased introduction of triennial CBE screening (age 40-69) with upfront FNA in non-urban settings, and both CBE (age 40-49) and fixed mammography screening (age 50-69) in urban settings, seems a more feasible option and is also cost-effective. The implementation of this intervention is only meaningful if awareness raising, diagnostic, referral, treatment and basic palliative services are simultaneously improved, and if financial and organizational barriers to these services are reduced. PMID:24349314
Effects of air pollution on infant and children respiratory mortality in four large Latin-American cities.

PubMed

Gouveia, Nelson; Junger, Washington Leite

2018-01-01

Air pollution is an important public health concern especially for children who are particularly susceptible. Latin America has a large children population, is highly urbanized and levels of pollution are substantially high, making the potential health impact of air pollution quite large. We evaluated the effect of air pollution on children respiratory mortality in four large urban centers: Mexico City, Santiago, Chile, and Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. Generalized Additive Models in Poisson regression was used to fit daily time-series of mortality due to respiratory diseases in infants and children, and levels of PM 10 and O 3 . Single lag and constrained polynomial distributed lag models were explored. Analyses were carried out per cause for each age group and each city. Fixed- and random-effects meta-analysis was conducted in order to combine the city-specific results in a single summary estimate. These cities host nearly 43 million people and pollution levels were above the WHO guidelines. For PM 10 the percentage increase in risk of death due to respiratory diseases in infants in a fixed effect model was 0.47% (0.09-0.85). For respiratory deaths in children 1-5 years old, the increase in risk was 0.58% (0.08-1.08) while a higher effect was observed for lower respiratory infections (LRI) in children 1-14 years old [1.38% (0.91-1.85)]. For O 3 , the only summarized estimate statistically significant was for LRI in infants. Analysis by season showed effects of O 3 in the warm season for respiratory diseases in infants, while negative effects were observed for respiratory and LRI deaths in children. We provided comparable mortality impact estimates of air pollutants across these cities and age groups. This information is important because many public policies aimed at preventing the adverse effects of pollution on health consider children as the population group that deserves the highest protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cost-effectiveness analysis of breast cancer control interventions in Peru.

PubMed

Zelle, Sten G; Vidaurre, Tatiana; Abugattas, Julio E; Manrique, Javier E; Sarria, Gustavo; Jeronimo, José; Seinfeld, Janice N; Lauer, Jeremy A; Sepulveda, Cecilia R; Venegas, Diego; Baltussen, Rob

2013-01-01

In Peru, a country with constrained health resources, breast cancer control is characterized by late stage treatment and poor survival. To support breast cancer control in Peru, this study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of different breast cancer control interventions relevant for the Peruvian context. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) according to WHO-CHOICE guidelines, from a healthcare perspective. Different screening, early detection, palliative, and treatment interventions were evaluated using mathematical modeling. Effectiveness estimates were based on observational studies, modeling, and on information from Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Neoplásicas (INEN). Resource utilizations and unit costs were based on estimates from INEN and observational studies. Cost-effectiveness estimates are in 2012 United States dollars (US$) per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted. The current breast cancer program in Peru ($8,426 per DALY averted) could be improved through implementing triennial or biennial screening strategies. These strategies seem the most cost-effective in Peru, particularly when mobile mammography is applied (from $4,125 per DALY averted), or when both CBE screening and mammography screening are combined (from $4,239 per DALY averted). Triennially, these interventions costs between $63 million and $72 million per year. Late stage treatment, trastuzumab therapy and annual screening strategies are the least cost-effective. Our analysis suggests that breast cancer control in Peru should be oriented towards early detection through combining fixed and mobile mammography screening (age 45-69) triennially. However, a phased introduction of triennial CBE screening (age 40-69) with upfront FNA in non-urban settings, and both CBE (age 40-49) and fixed mammography screening (age 50-69) in urban settings, seems a more feasible option and is also cost-effective. The implementation of this intervention is only meaningful if awareness raising, diagnostic, referral, treatment and basic palliative services are simultaneously improved, and if financial and organizational barriers to these services are reduced.
Racial Bias in the Manager-Employee Relationship: An Analysis of Quits, Dismissals, and Promotions at a Large Retail Firm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giuliano, Laura; Levine, David I.; Leonard, Jonathan

2011-01-01

Using data from a large U.S. retail firm, we examine how racial matches between managers and their employees affect rates of employee quits, dismissals, and promotions. We exploit changes in management at hundreds of stores to estimate hazard models with store fixed effects that control for all unobserved differences across store locations. We…
A survey of active controls benefits to supersonic transports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pratt, K. G.

1976-01-01

Results are drawn from studies of the impact of advanced technologies on the design of an arrow-wing configuration. Information presented includes estimated benefits, effects of combinations of active control concepts, and constraints. Emphasis is placed on characteristics that are uniquely related to a large airframe featuring a slender body with a fixed wing of low aspect ratio, high sweep, and small thickness ratio.
Monte Carlo simulations to assess the effects of tube current modulation on breast dose for multidetector CT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angel, Erin; Yaghmai, Nazanin; Matilda Jude, Cecilia; DeMarco, John J.; Cagnon, Christopher H.; Goldin, Jonathan G.; Primak, Andrew N.; Stevens, Donna M.; Cody, Dianna D.; McCollough, Cynthia H.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F.

2009-02-01

Tube current modulation was designed to reduce radiation dose in CT imaging while maintaining overall image quality. This study aims to develop a method for evaluating the effects of tube current modulation (TCM) on organ dose in CT exams of actual patient anatomy. This method was validated by simulating a TCM and a fixed tube current chest CT exam on 30 voxelized patient models and estimating the radiation dose to each patient's glandular breast tissue. This new method for estimating organ dose was compared with other conventional estimates of dose reduction. Thirty detailed voxelized models of patient anatomy were created based on image data from female patients who had previously undergone clinically indicated CT scans including the chest area. As an indicator of patient size, the perimeter of the patient was measured on the image containing at least one nipple using a semi-automated technique. The breasts were contoured on each image set by a radiologist and glandular tissue was semi-automatically segmented from this region. Previously validated Monte Carlo models of two multidetector CT scanners were used, taking into account details about the source spectra, filtration, collimation and geometry of the scanner. TCM data were obtained from each patient's clinical scan and factored into the model to simulate the effects of TCM. For each patient model, two exams were simulated: a fixed tube current chest CT and a tube current modulated chest CT. X-ray photons were transported through the anatomy of the voxelized patient models, and radiation dose was tallied in the glandular breast tissue. The resulting doses from the tube current modulated simulations were compared to the results obtained from simulations performed using a fixed mA value. The average radiation dose to the glandular breast tissue from a fixed tube current scan across all patient models was 19 mGy. The average reduction in breast dose using the tube current modulated scan was 17%. Results were size dependent with smaller patients getting better dose reduction (up to 64% reduction) and larger patients getting a smaller reduction, and in some cases the dose actually increased when using tube current modulation (up to 41% increase). The results indicate that radiation dose to glandular breast tissue generally decreases with the use of tube current modulated CT acquisition, but that patient size (and in some cases patient positioning) may affect dose reduction.
Bias and inference from misspecified mixed-effect models in stepped wedge trial analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, Jennifer A; Fielding, Katherine L; Davey, Calum; Aiken, Alexander M; Hargreaves, James R; Hayes, Richard J

2017-10-15

Many stepped wedge trials (SWTs) are analysed by using a mixed-effect model with a random intercept and fixed effects for the intervention and time periods (referred to here as the standard model). However, it is not known whether this model is robust to misspecification. We simulated SWTs with three groups of clusters and two time periods; one group received the intervention during the first period and two groups in the second period. We simulated period and intervention effects that were either common-to-all or varied-between clusters. Data were analysed with the standard model or with additional random effects for period effect or intervention effect. In a second simulation study, we explored the weight given to within-cluster comparisons by simulating a larger intervention effect in the group of the trial that experienced both the control and intervention conditions and applying the three analysis models described previously. Across 500 simulations, we computed bias and confidence interval coverage of the estimated intervention effect. We found up to 50% bias in intervention effect estimates when period or intervention effects varied between clusters and were treated as fixed effects in the analysis. All misspecified models showed undercoverage of 95% confidence intervals, particularly the standard model. A large weight was given to within-cluster comparisons in the standard model. In the SWTs simulated here, mixed-effect models were highly sensitive to departures from the model assumptions, which can be explained by the high dependence on within-cluster comparisons. Trialists should consider including a random effect for time period in their SWT analysis model. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Bias and inference from misspecified mixed‐effect models in stepped wedge trial analysis

PubMed Central

Fielding, Katherine L.; Davey, Calum; Aiken, Alexander M.; Hargreaves, James R.; Hayes, Richard J.

2017-01-01

Many stepped wedge trials (SWTs) are analysed by using a mixed‐effect model with a random intercept and fixed effects for the intervention and time periods (referred to here as the standard model). However, it is not known whether this model is robust to misspecification. We simulated SWTs with three groups of clusters and two time periods; one group received the intervention during the first period and two groups in the second period. We simulated period and intervention effects that were either common‐to‐all or varied‐between clusters. Data were analysed with the standard model or with additional random effects for period effect or intervention effect. In a second simulation study, we explored the weight given to within‐cluster comparisons by simulating a larger intervention effect in the group of the trial that experienced both the control and intervention conditions and applying the three analysis models described previously. Across 500 simulations, we computed bias and confidence interval coverage of the estimated intervention effect. We found up to 50% bias in intervention effect estimates when period or intervention effects varied between clusters and were treated as fixed effects in the analysis. All misspecified models showed undercoverage of 95% confidence intervals, particularly the standard model. A large weight was given to within‐cluster comparisons in the standard model. In the SWTs simulated here, mixed‐effect models were highly sensitive to departures from the model assumptions, which can be explained by the high dependence on within‐cluster comparisons. Trialists should consider including a random effect for time period in their SWT analysis model. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:28556355
Point Organ Radiation Dose in Abdominal CT: Effect of Patient Off-Centering in an Experimental Human Cadaver Study.

PubMed

Ali Khawaja, Ranish Deedar; Singh, Sarabjeet; Padole, Atul; Otrakji, Alexi; Lira, Diego; Zhang, Da; Liu, Bob; Primak, Andrew; Xu, George; Kalra, Mannudeep K

2017-08-01

To determine the effect of patient off-centering on point organ radiation dose measurements in a human cadaver scanned with routine abdominal CT protocol. A human cadaver (88 years, body-mass-index 20 kg/m2) was scanned with routine abdominal CT protocol on 128-slice dual source MDCT (Definition Flash, Siemens). A total of 18 scans were performed using two scan protocols (a) 120 kV-200 mAs fixed-mA (CTDIvol 14 mGy) (b) 120 kV-125 ref mAs (7 mGy) with automatic exposure control (AEC, CareDose 4D) at three different positions (a) gantry isocenter, (b) upward off-centering and (c) downward off-centering. Scanning was repeated three times at each position. Six thimble (in liver, stomach, kidney, pancreas, colon and urinary bladder) and four MOSFET dosimeters (on cornea, thyroid, testicle and breast) were placed for calculation of measured point organ doses. Organ dose estimations were retrieved from dose-tracking software (eXposure, Radimetrics). Statistical analysis was performed using analysis of variance. There was a significant difference between the trends of point organ doses with AEC and fixed-mA at all three positions (p < 0.01). Variation in point doses between fixed-mA and AEC protocols were statistically significant across all organs at all Table positions (p < 0.001). There was up to 5-6% decrease in point doses with upward off-centering and in downward off-centering. There were statistical significant differences in point doses from dosimeters and dose-tracking software (mean difference for internal organs, 5-36% for fixed-mA & 7-48% for AEC protocols; p < 0.001; mean difference for surface organs, >92% for both protocols; p < 0.0001). For both protocols, the highest mean difference in point doses was found for stomach and lowest for colon. Measured absorbed point doses in abdominal CT vary with patient-centering in the gantry isocenter. Due to lack of consideration of patient positioning in the dose estimation on automatic software-over estimation of the doses up to 92% was reported. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Multilevel Dynamic Generalized Structured Component Analysis for Brain Connectivity Analysis in Functional Neuroimaging Data.

PubMed

Jung, Kwanghee; Takane, Yoshio; Hwang, Heungsun; Woodward, Todd S

2016-06-01

We extend dynamic generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) to enhance its data-analytic capability in structural equation modeling of multi-subject time series data. Time series data of multiple subjects are typically hierarchically structured, where time points are nested within subjects who are in turn nested within a group. The proposed approach, named multilevel dynamic GSCA, accommodates the nested structure in time series data. Explicitly taking the nested structure into account, the proposed method allows investigating subject-wise variability of the loadings and path coefficients by looking at the variance estimates of the corresponding random effects, as well as fixed loadings between observed and latent variables and fixed path coefficients between latent variables. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by applying the method to the multi-subject functional neuroimaging data for brain connectivity analysis, where time series data-level measurements are nested within subjects.
An Overview of Longitudinal Data Analysis Methods for Neurological Research

PubMed Central

Locascio, Joseph J.; Atri, Alireza

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to provide a concise, broad and readily accessible overview of longitudinal data analysis methods, aimed to be a practical guide for clinical investigators in neurology. In general, we advise that older, traditional methods, including (1) simple regression of the dependent variable on a time measure, (2) analyzing a single summary subject level number that indexes changes for each subject and (3) a general linear model approach with a fixed-subject effect, should be reserved for quick, simple or preliminary analyses. We advocate the general use of mixed-random and fixed-effect regression models for analyses of most longitudinal clinical studies. Under restrictive situations or to provide validation, we recommend: (1) repeated-measure analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), (2) ANCOVA for two time points, (3) generalized estimating equations and (4) latent growth curve/structural equation models. PMID:22203825
Estimation of Multinomial Probabilities.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-11-01

1971) and Alam (1978) have shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is admissible with respect to the quadratic loss. Steinhaus (1957) and Trybula...appear). Johnson, B. Mck. (1971). On admissible estimators for certain fixed sample binomial populations. Ann. Math. Statist. 92, 1579-1587. Steinhaus , H
Effect of Workplace Weight Management on Health Care Expenditures and Quality of Life.

PubMed

Michaud, Tzeyu L; Nyman, John A; Jutkowitz, Eric; Su, Dejun; Dowd, Bryan; Abraham, Jean M

2016-11-01

We examined the effectiveness of the weight management program used by the University of Minnesota in reducing health care expenditures and improving quality of life of its employees, and also in reducing their absenteeism during a 3-year intervention. A differences-in-differences regression approach was used to estimate the effect of weight management participation. We further applied ordinary least squares regression models with fixed effects to estimate the effect in an alternative analysis. Participation in the weight management program significantly reduced health care expenditures by $69 per month for employees, spouses, and dependents, and by $73 for employees only. Quality-of-life weights were 0.0045 points higher for participating employees than for nonparticipating ones. No significant effect was found for absenteeism. The workplace weight management used by the University of Minnesota reduced health care expenditures and improved quality of life.
Evaluation of Denoising Strategies to Address Motion-Correlated Artifacts in Resting-State Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data from the Human Connectome Project

PubMed Central

Kandala, Sridhar; Nolan, Dan; Laumann, Timothy O.; Power, Jonathan D.; Adeyemo, Babatunde; Harms, Michael P.; Petersen, Steven E.; Barch, Deanna M.

2016-01-01

Abstract Like all resting-state functional connectivity data, the data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) are adversely affected by structured noise artifacts arising from head motion and physiological processes. Functional connectivity estimates (Pearson's correlation coefficients) were inflated for high-motion time points and for high-motion participants. This inflation occurred across the brain, suggesting the presence of globally distributed artifacts. The degree of inflation was further increased for connections between nearby regions compared with distant regions, suggesting the presence of distance-dependent spatially specific artifacts. We evaluated several denoising methods: censoring high-motion time points, motion regression, the FMRIB independent component analysis-based X-noiseifier (FIX), and mean grayordinate time series regression (MGTR; as a proxy for global signal regression). The results suggest that FIX denoising reduced both types of artifacts, but left substantial global artifacts behind. MGTR significantly reduced global artifacts, but left substantial spatially specific artifacts behind. Censoring high-motion time points resulted in a small reduction of distance-dependent and global artifacts, eliminating neither type. All denoising strategies left differences between high- and low-motion participants, but only MGTR substantially reduced those differences. Ultimately, functional connectivity estimates from HCP data showed spatially specific and globally distributed artifacts, and the most effective approach to address both types of motion-correlated artifacts was a combination of FIX and MGTR. PMID:27571276
Theoretical foundations for quantitative paleogenetics. III - The molecular divergence of nucleic acids and proteins for the case of genetic events of unequal probability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holmquist, R.; Pearl, D.

1980-01-01

Theoretical equations are derived for molecular divergence with respect to gene and protein structure in the presence of genetic events with unequal probabilities: amino acid and base compositions, the frequencies of nucleotide replacements, the usage of degenerate codons, the distribution of fixed base replacements within codons and the distribution of fixed base replacements among codons. Results are presented in the form of tables relating the probabilities of given numbers of codon base changes with respect to the original codon for the alpha hemoglobin, beta hemoglobin, myoglobin, cytochrome c and parvalbumin group gene families. Application of the calculations to the rabbit alpha and beta hemoglobin mRNAs and proteins indicates that the genes are separated by about 425 fixed based replacements distributed over 114 codon sites, which is a factor of two greater than previous estimates. The theoretical results also suggest that many more base replacements are required to effect a given gene or protein structural change than previously believed.
Random effects coefficient of determination for mixed and meta-analysis models.

PubMed

Demidenko, Eugene; Sargent, James; Onega, Tracy

2012-01-01

The key feature of a mixed model is the presence of random effects. We have developed a coefficient, called the random effects coefficient of determination, [Formula: see text], that estimates the proportion of the conditional variance of the dependent variable explained by random effects. This coefficient takes values from 0 to 1 and indicates how strong the random effects are. The difference from the earlier suggested fixed effects coefficient of determination is emphasized. If [Formula: see text] is close to 0, there is weak support for random effects in the model because the reduction of the variance of the dependent variable due to random effects is small; consequently, random effects may be ignored and the model simplifies to standard linear regression. The value of [Formula: see text] apart from 0 indicates the evidence of the variance reduction in support of the mixed model. If random effects coefficient of determination is close to 1 the variance of random effects is very large and random effects turn into free fixed effects-the model can be estimated using the dummy variable approach. We derive explicit formulas for [Formula: see text] in three special cases: the random intercept model, the growth curve model, and meta-analysis model. Theoretical results are illustrated with three mixed model examples: (1) travel time to the nearest cancer center for women with breast cancer in the U.S., (2) cumulative time watching alcohol related scenes in movies among young U.S. teens, as a risk factor for early drinking onset, and (3) the classic example of the meta-analysis model for combination of 13 studies on tuberculosis vaccine.

Workers' Compensation Insurance and Occupational Injuries

PubMed Central

Oh, Jun-Byoung; Yi, Hyung Kwan

2011-01-01

Objectives Although compensation for occupational injuries and diseases is guaranteed in almost all nations, countries vary greatly with respect to how they organize workers' compensation systems. In this paper, we focus on three aspects of workers' compensation insurance in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries - types of systems, employers' funding mechanisms, and coverage for injured workers - and their impacts on the actual frequencies of occupational injuries and diseases. Methods We estimated a panel data fixed effect model with cross-country OECD and International Labor Organization data. We controlled for country fixed effects, relevant aggregate variables, and dummy variables representing the occupational accidents data source. Results First, the use of a private insurance system is found to lower the occupational accidents. Second, the use of risk-based pricing for the payment of employer raises the occupational injuries and diseases. Finally, the wider the coverage of injured workers is, the less frequent the workplace accidents are. Conclusion Private insurance system, fixed flat rate employers' funding mechanism, and higher coverage of compensation scheme are significantly and positively correlated with lower level of occupational accidents compared with the public insurance system, risk-based funding system, and lower coverage of compensation scheme. PMID:22953197
Three-dimensional isobolographic analysis of interactions between lamotrigine and clonazepam in maximal electroshock-induced seizures in mice.

PubMed

Luszczki, Jarogniew J; Czuczwar, Stanislaw J

2004-11-01

The anticonvulsant effects of lamotrigine (LTG) and clonazepam (CZP) and combinations thereof against maximal electroshock (MES)-induced seizures in mice were investigated using three-dimensional (3D) isobolographic analysis. With this method, the doses of fixed-ratio combinations of the drugs (1:3, 1:1 and 3:1) that elicited 16, 50 and 84% of the maximum anticonvulsant effect were determined. Additionally, to evaluate the characteristics of interactions observed with 3D isobolography, the brain concentrations of both drugs were verified pharmacokinetically. The 3D isobolographic analysis showed that LTG and CZP combined at the fixed ratios of 3:1 and 1:1 interacted synergistically in the MES test for all anticonvulsant effects between 16% and 84% of maximum. In contrast, the combination of LTG and CZP at the fixed ratio of 1:3 showed only pure additivity for all estimated effects in 3D isobolography. Moreover, none of the examined antiepileptic drugs altered the brain concentrations of the coadministered drug, so the observed interactions in the MES test are of a pharmacodynamic nature. The 3D isobolographic findings suggest that in epilepsy therapy, increased efficacy of seizure control (synergistic interaction) might be achieved by using LTG and CZP in combination. In this study, some important problems and assumptions related to statistical analysis of data in 3D isobolography are discussed.
Estimating the exceedance probability of rain rate by logistic regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, Long S.; Kedem, Benjamin

1990-01-01

Recent studies have shown that the fraction of an area with rain intensity above a fixed threshold is highly correlated with the area-averaged rain rate. To estimate the fractional rainy area, a logistic regression model, which estimates the conditional probability that rain rate over an area exceeds a fixed threshold given the values of related covariates, is developed. The problem of dependency in the data in the estimation procedure is bypassed by the method of partial likelihood. Analyses of simulated scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and observed electrically scanning microwave radiometer data during the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment period show that the use of logistic regression in pixel classification is superior to multiple regression in predicting whether rain rate at each pixel exceeds a given threshold, even in the presence of noisy data. The potential of the logistic regression technique in satellite rain rate estimation is discussed.
The relationship between cigarette taxes and child maltreatment.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Michael

2018-05-01

Prior research suggests that income and child maltreatment are related, but questions remain about the specific types of economic factors that affect the risk of maltreatment. The need to understand the role of economics in child welfare is critical, given the significant public health costs of child maltreatment. One factor that has been overlooked is regressive taxation. This study addresses this need by examining whether state-level changes in cigarette tax rates predict changes in state-level child maltreatment rates. The results of both a fixed effects (FE) and a fixed effects instrumental variables (FE-IV) estimator show that increases in state cigarette tax rates are followed by increases in child abuse and neglect. An additional test finds that increases in the sales tax (another tax deemed to be regressive) also predict increases in child maltreatment rates. Taken as a whole, the findings suggest that regressive taxes have a significant effect on the risk of child maltreatment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Intelligence/Electronic Warfare (IEW) Direction-Finding and Fix Estimation Analysis Report. Volume 2. Trailblazer

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-20

Report) Approved for Public Disemination I 17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of the abstract entered In Block 20, It different from Report) I1. SUPPLEMENTARY...Continue an riverl. aid. It neceseary ind Idoni..•y by block number) Fix Estimation Statistical Assumptions, Error Budget, Unnodclcd Errors, Coding...llgedl i t Eh’ fI) t r !". 1 I ’ " r, tl 1: a Icr it h m hc ro ,, ] y zcd arc Csedil other Current TIV! Sysem ’ he report examines the underlying
Radioiodine therapy of hyperfunctioning thyroid nodules: usefulness of an implemented dose calculation algorithm allowing reduction of radioiodine amount.

PubMed

Schiavo, M; Bagnara, M C; Pomposelli, E; Altrinetti, V; Calamia, I; Camerieri, L; Giusti, M; Pesce, G; Reitano, C; Bagnasco, M; Caputo, M

2013-09-01

Radioiodine is a common option for treatment of hyperfunctioning thyroid nodules. Due to the expected selective radioiodine uptake by adenoma, relatively high "fixed" activities are often used. Alternatively, the activity is individually calculated upon the prescription of a fixed value of target absorbed dose. We evaluated the use of an algorithm for personalized radioiodine activity calculation, which allows as a rule the administration of lower radioiodine activities. Seventy-five patients with single hyperfunctioning thyroid nodule eligible for 131I treatment were studied. The activities of 131I to be administered were estimated by the method described by Traino et al. and developed for Graves'disease, assuming selective and homogeneous 131I uptake by adenoma. The method takes into account 131I uptake and its effective half-life, target (adenoma) volume and its expected volume reduction during treatment. A comparison with the activities calculated by other dosimetric protocols, and the "fixed" activity method was performed. 131I uptake was measured by external counting, thyroid nodule volume by ultrasonography, thyroid hormones and TSH by ELISA. Remission of hyperthyroidism was observed in all but one patient; volume reduction of adenoma was closely similar to that assumed by our model. Effective half-life was highly variable in different patients, and critically affected dose calculation. The administered activities were clearly lower with respect to "fixed" activities and other protocols' prescription. The proposed algorithm proved to be effective also for single hyperfunctioning thyroid nodule treatment and allowed a significant reduction of administered 131I activities, without loss of clinical efficacy.
Academic achievement and course taking among language minority youth in U.S. schools: Effects of ESL placement

PubMed Central

Callahan, Rebecca; Wilkinson, Lindsey; Muller, Chandra

2014-01-01

The 1974 Lau decision requires that U.S. public schools ensure a meaningful education for students learning English. English as a Second Language (ESL) placement is an institutional response to the linguistic needs of these students; however, its academic implications remain largely unexplored. Using nationally representative data from the Educational Longitudinal Study (ELS), the effects of ESL placement on college preparatory course enrollment and academic achievement of language minority students are estimated, first with fixed effects regression models and then with multi-level propensity score matching techniques. While numerous school and individual level factors beyond language proficiency predict ESL placement, a significant negative estimated effect of ESL placement on science enrollment and cumulative GPA is consistently found. Perhaps more important, however, no positive effects of ESL placement on the achievement of language minority youth are found when accounting for English proficiency and other potential covariates. PMID:25431506
Academic achievement and course taking among language minority youth in U.S. schools: Effects of ESL placement.

PubMed

Callahan, Rebecca; Wilkinson, Lindsey; Muller, Chandra

2010-03-01

The 1974 Lau decision requires that U.S. public schools ensure a meaningful education for students learning English. English as a Second Language (ESL) placement is an institutional response to the linguistic needs of these students; however, its academic implications remain largely unexplored. Using nationally representative data from the Educational Longitudinal Study (ELS), the effects of ESL placement on college preparatory course enrollment and academic achievement of language minority students are estimated, first with fixed effects regression models and then with multi-level propensity score matching techniques. While numerous school and individual level factors beyond language proficiency predict ESL placement, a significant negative estimated effect of ESL placement on science enrollment and cumulative GPA is consistently found. Perhaps more important, however, no positive effects of ESL placement on the achievement of language minority youth are found when accounting for English proficiency and other potential covariates.
Reduction of Working Time: Does It Lead to a Healthy Lifestyle?

PubMed

Ahn, Taehyun

2016-08-01

I examine whether working hours have a causal effect on the health behaviors of workers. In assessing the causal relationship, I estimate fixed-effects instrumental variable models by using exogenous variation in adopting a reduced workweek in South Korea as an instrument for work hours. The estimation results reveal that shortening work hours induces individuals to exercise regularly and decreases the likelihood of smoking, with more pronounced effects for heavy smokers. While a work-hour reduction substantially increases the probability of drinking participation, it does not significantly affect the likelihood of frequent or daily drinking habits. In addition, the effect of a work-hour reduction on regular exercise is salient among women and older groups, and the effect on smoking behaviors is more pronounced among men and middle-aged groups. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
An integrated specification for the nexus of water pollution and economic growth in China: Panel cointegration, long-run causality and environmental Kuznets curve.

PubMed

Zhang, Chen; Wang, Yuan; Song, Xiaowei; Kubota, Jumpei; He, Yanmin; Tojo, Junji; Zhu, Xiaodong

2017-12-31

This paper concentrates on a Chinese context and makes efforts to develop an integrated process to explicitly elucidate the relationship between economic growth and water pollution discharge-chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge and ammonia nitrogen (NH 3 -N), using two unbalanced panel data sets covering the period separately from 1990 to 2014, and 2001 to 2014. In our present study, the panel unit root tests, cointegration tests, and Granger causality tests allowing for cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary, and heterogeneity are conducted to examine the causal effects of economic growth on COD/NH 3 -N discharge. Further, we simultaneously apply semi-parametric fixed effects estimation and parametric fixed effects estimation to investigate environmental Kuznets curve relationship for COD/NH 3 -N discharge. Our empirical results show a long-term bidirectional causality between economic growth and COD/NH 3 -N discharge in China. Within the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology framework, we find evidence in support of an inverted U-shaped curved link between economic growth and COD/NH 3 -N discharge. To the best of our knowledge, there have not been any efforts made in investigating the nexus of economic growth and water pollution in such an integrated manner. Therefore, this study takes a fresh look on this topic. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Can evolutionary constraints explain the rarity of nitrogen-fixing trees in high-latitude forests?

PubMed

Menge, Duncan N L; Crews, Timothy E

2016-09-01

Contents 1195 I. 1195 II. 1196 III. 1196 IV. 1200 1200 References 1200 SUMMARY: The rarity of symbiotic nitrogen (N)-fixing trees in temperate and boreal ('high-latitude') forests is curious. One explanation - the evolutionary constraints hypothesis - posits that high-latitude N-fixing trees are rare because few have evolved. Here, we consider traits necessary for high-latitude N-fixing trees. We then use recent developments in trait evolution to estimate that > 2000 and > 500 species could have evolved from low-latitude N-fixing trees and high-latitude N-fixing herbs, respectively. Evolution of N-fixing from nonfixing trees is an unlikely source of diversity. Dispersal limitation seems unlikely to limit high-latitude N-fixer diversity. The greater number of N-fixing species predicted to evolve than currently inhabit high-latitude forests suggests a greater role for ecological than evolutionary constraints. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.
Using panel data to determine the effect of advertising on brand-level distilled spirits sales.

PubMed

Gius, M P

1996-01-01

The purpose of the present study is to determine the effect that brand-level advertising has on brand-level spirits demand. Using a panel data set consisting of 16 brands and 14 years of data, a fixed effects model of brand-level spirits demand was estimated. It was found that own-brand advertising, income, rival-brand price, a time trend and brand loyalty all have a significant effect on brand-level spirits demand. These results indicate that brand-level spirits advertising results only in brand switching and does not increase the overall size of the market.
Modelling small-area inequality in premature mortality using years of life lost rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Peter

2013-04-01

Analysis of premature mortality variations via standardized expected years of life lost (SEYLL) measures raises questions about suitable modelling for mortality data, especially when developing SEYLL profiles for areas with small populations. Existing fixed effects estimation methods take no account of correlations in mortality levels over ages, causes, socio-ethnic groups or areas. They also do not specify an underlying data generating process, or a likelihood model that can include trends or correlations, and are likely to produce unstable estimates for small-areas. An alternative strategy involves a fully specified data generation process, and a random effects model which "borrows strength" to produce stable SEYLL estimates, allowing for correlations between ages, areas and socio-ethnic groups. The resulting modelling strategy is applied to gender-specific differences in SEYLL rates in small-areas in NE London, and to cause-specific mortality for leading causes of premature mortality in these areas.
Capturing Context-Related Change in Emotional Dynamics via Fixed Moderated Time Series Analysis.

PubMed

Adolf, Janne K; Voelkle, Manuel C; Brose, Annette; Schmiedek, Florian

2017-01-01

Much of recent affect research relies on intensive longitudinal studies to assess daily emotional experiences. The resulting data are analyzed with dynamic models to capture regulatory processes involved in emotional functioning. Daily contexts, however, are commonly ignored. This may not only result in biased parameter estimates and wrong conclusions, but also ignores the opportunity to investigate contextual effects on emotional dynamics. With fixed moderated time series analysis, we present an approach that resolves this problem by estimating context-dependent change in dynamic parameters in single-subject time series models. The approach examines parameter changes of known shape and thus addresses the problem of observed intra-individual heterogeneity (e.g., changes in emotional dynamics due to observed changes in daily stress). In comparison to existing approaches to unobserved heterogeneity, model estimation is facilitated and different forms of change can readily be accommodated. We demonstrate the approach's viability given relatively short time series by means of a simulation study. In addition, we present an empirical application, targeting the joint dynamics of affect and stress and how these co-vary with daily events. We discuss potentials and limitations of the approach and close with an outlook on the broader implications for understanding emotional adaption and development.
State Estimation for Tensegrity Robots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caluwaerts, Ken; Bruce, Jonathan; Friesen, Jeffrey M.; Sunspiral, Vytas

2016-01-01

Tensegrity robots are a class of compliant robots that have many desirable traits when designing mass efficient systems that must interact with uncertain environments. Various promising control approaches have been proposed for tensegrity systems in simulation. Unfortunately, state estimation methods for tensegrity robots have not yet been thoroughly studied. In this paper, we present the design and evaluation of a state estimator for tensegrity robots. This state estimator will enable existing and future control algorithms to transfer from simulation to hardware. Our approach is based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and combines inertial measurements, ultra wideband time-of-flight ranging measurements, and actuator state information. We evaluate the effectiveness of our method on the SUPERball, a tensegrity based planetary exploration robotic prototype. In particular, we conduct tests for evaluating both the robot's success in estimating global position in relation to fixed ranging base stations during rolling maneuvers as well as local behavior due to small-amplitude deformations induced by cable actuation.
Estimating equations estimates of trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1994-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.
Workplace social capital and all-cause mortality: a prospective cohort study of 28,043 public-sector employees in Finland.

PubMed

Oksanen, Tuula; Kivimäki, Mika; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S V; Takao, Soshi; Suzuki, Etsuji; Kouvonen, Anne; Pentti, Jaana; Salo, Paula; Virtanen, Marianna; Vahtera, Jussi

2011-09-01

We examined the association between workplace social capital and all-cause mortality in a large occupational cohort from Finland. We linked responses of 28 043 participants to surveys in 2000 to 2002 and in 2004 to national mortality registers through 2009. We used repeated measurements of self- and coworker-assessed social capital. We carried out Cox proportional hazard and fixed-effects logistic regressions. During the 5-year follow-up, 196 employees died. A 1-unit increase in the mean of repeat measurements of self-assessed workplace social capital (range 1-5) was associated with a 19% decrease in the risk of all-cause mortality (age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66, 0.99). The corresponding point estimate for the mean of coworker-assessed social capital was similar, although the association was less precisely estimated (age- and gender-adjusted HR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.50, 1.20). In fixed-effects analysis, a 1-unit increase in self-assessed social capital across the 2 time points was associated with a lower mortality risk (odds ratio = 0.81; 95% CI = 0.55, 1.19). Workplace social capital appears to be associated with lowered mortality in the working-aged population.
Workplace Social Capital and All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study of 28 043 Public-Sector Employees in Finland

PubMed Central

Kivimäki, Mika; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S. V.; Takao, Soshi; Suzuki, Etsuji; Kouvonen, Anne; Pentti, Jaana; Salo, Paula; Virtanen, Marianna; Vahtera, Jussi

2011-01-01

Objectives. We examined the association between workplace social capital and all-cause mortality in a large occupational cohort from Finland. Methods. We linked responses of 28 043 participants to surveys in 2000 to 2002 and in 2004 to national mortality registers through 2009. We used repeated measurements of self- and coworker-assessed social capital. We carried out Cox proportional hazard and fixed-effects logistic regressions. Results. During the 5-year follow-up, 196 employees died. A 1-unit increase in the mean of repeat measurements of self-assessed workplace social capital (range 1–5) was associated with a 19% decrease in the risk of all-cause mortality (age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66, 0.99). The corresponding point estimate for the mean of coworker-assessed social capital was similar, although the association was less precisely estimated (age- and gender-adjusted HR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.50, 1.20). In fixed-effects analysis, a 1-unit increase in self-assessed social capital across the 2 time points was associated with a lower mortality risk (odds ratio = 0.81; 95% CI = 0.55, 1.19). Conclusions. Workplace social capital appears to be associated with lowered mortality in the working-aged population. PMID:21778502
Hospital participation in Meaningful Use and racial disparities in readmissions.

PubMed

Unruh, Mark Aaron; Jung, Hye Young; Kaushal, Rainu; Vest, Joshua R

2018-01-01

To measure the impact of hospital participation in Meaningful Use (MU) on disparities in 30-day readmissions associated with race. A retrospective cohort study that compared the likelihood of 30-day readmission for Medicare beneficiaries discharged from hospitals participating in Stage 1 of MU with the likelihood of readmission for beneficiaries concurrently discharged from hospitals that were not participating in the initiative. Inpatient claims for 2,414,205 Medicare beneficiaries from Florida, New York, and Washington State were used as the primary data source. The study period (2009-2013) included at least 2 years of baseline data prior to each hospital initiating participation in MU. Estimates were derived with linear regression models that included hospital and time fixed effects. By including both hospital and time fixed effects, estimates were based on discharges from the same hospital in the same time period. MU participation among hospitals was not associated with a statistically significant change in readmissions for the broader Medicare population (percentage points [PP], 0.6; 95% CI, -0.2 to 1.4), but hospitals' participation in the initiative was associated with a lower likelihood of readmission for African American beneficiaries (PP, -0.9; 95% CI, -1.5 to -0.4). Hospital participation in MU reduced disparities in 30-day readmissions for African American Medicare beneficiaries.
Designing efficient nitrous oxide sampling strategies in agroecosystems using simulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Debasish; Kemanian, Armen R.; Rau, Benjamin M.; Adler, Paul R.; Montes, Felipe

2017-04-01

Annual cumulative soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions calculated from discrete chamber-based flux measurements have unknown uncertainty. We used outputs from simulations obtained with an agroecosystem model to design sampling strategies that yield accurate cumulative N2O flux estimates with a known uncertainty level. Daily soil N2O fluxes were simulated for Ames, IA (corn-soybean rotation), College Station, TX (corn-vetch rotation), Fort Collins, CO (irrigated corn), and Pullman, WA (winter wheat), representing diverse agro-ecoregions of the United States. Fertilization source, rate, and timing were site-specific. These simulated fluxes surrogated daily measurements in the analysis. We ;sampled; the fluxes using a fixed interval (1-32 days) or a rule-based (decision tree-based) sampling method. Two types of decision trees were built: a high-input tree (HI) that included soil inorganic nitrogen (SIN) as a predictor variable, and a low-input tree (LI) that excluded SIN. Other predictor variables were identified with Random Forest. The decision trees were inverted to be used as rules for sampling a representative number of members from each terminal node. The uncertainty of the annual N2O flux estimation increased along with the fixed interval length. A 4- and 8-day fixed sampling interval was required at College Station and Ames, respectively, to yield ±20% accuracy in the flux estimate; a 12-day interval rendered the same accuracy at Fort Collins and Pullman. Both the HI and the LI rule-based methods provided the same accuracy as that of fixed interval method with up to a 60% reduction in sampling events, particularly at locations with greater temporal flux variability. For instance, at Ames, the HI rule-based and the fixed interval methods required 16 and 91 sampling events, respectively, to achieve the same absolute bias of 0.2 kg N ha-1 yr-1 in estimating cumulative N2O flux. These results suggest that using simulation models along with decision trees can reduce the cost and improve the accuracy of the estimations of cumulative N2O fluxes using the discrete chamber-based method.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars, based on modeling supply chain logistics.

PubMed

Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; Franz, E

2010-10-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference between simulating supply chain logistics (MOD) and assuming fixed storage times (FIX) in microbial risk estimation for the supply chain of fresh-cut leafy green vegetables destined for working-canteen salad bars. The results of the FIX model were previously published (E. Franz, S. O. Tromp, H. Rijgersberg, and H. J. van der Fels-Klerx, J. Food Prot. 73:274-285, 2010). Pathogen growth was modeled using stochastic discrete-event simulation of the applied logistics concept. The public health effects were assessed by conducting an exposure assessment and risk characterization. The relative growths of Escherichia coli O157 (17%) and Salmonella enterica (15%) were identical in the MOD and FIX models. In contrast, the relative growth of Listeria monocytogenes was considerably higher in the MOD model (1,156%) than in the FIX model (194%). The probability of L. monocytogenes infection in The Netherlands was higher in the MOD model (5.18×10(-8)) than in the FIX model (1.23×10(-8)). The risk of listeriosis-induced fetal mortality in the perinatal population increased from 1.24×10(-4) (FIX) to 1.66×10(-4) (MOD). Modeling the probabilistic nature of supply chain logistics is of additional value for microbial risk assessments regarding psychrotrophic pathogens in food products for which time and temperature are the postharvest preventive measures in guaranteeing food safety.
47 CFR 61.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...). (r) GDP Price Index (GDP-PI). The estimate of the Chain-Type Price Index for Gross Domestic Product... Price Index (GNP-PI). The estimate of the “Fixed-Weighted Price Index for Gross National Product, 1982...
Modification and fixed-point analysis of a Kalman filter for orientation estimation based on 9D inertial measurement unit data.

PubMed

Brückner, Hans-Peter; Spindeldreier, Christian; Blume, Holger

2013-01-01

A common approach for high accuracy sensor fusion based on 9D inertial measurement unit data is Kalman filtering. State of the art floating-point filter algorithms differ in their computational complexity nevertheless, real-time operation on a low-power microcontroller at high sampling rates is not possible. This work presents algorithmic modifications to reduce the computational demands of a two-step minimum order Kalman filter. Furthermore, the required bit-width of a fixed-point filter version is explored. For evaluation real-world data captured using an Xsens MTx inertial sensor is used. Changes in computational latency and orientation estimation accuracy due to the proposed algorithmic modifications and fixed-point number representation are evaluated in detail on a variety of processing platforms enabling on-board processing on wearable sensor platforms.
A model-based correction for outcome reporting bias in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Copas, John; Dwan, Kerry; Kirkham, Jamie; Williamson, Paula

2014-04-01

It is often suspected (or known) that outcomes published in medical trials are selectively reported. A systematic review for a particular outcome of interest can only include studies where that outcome was reported and so may omit, for example, a study that has considered several outcome measures but only reports those giving significant results. Using the methodology of the Outcome Reporting Bias (ORB) in Trials study of (Kirkham and others, 2010. The impact of outcome reporting bias in randomised controlled trials on a cohort of systematic reviews. British Medical Journal 340, c365), we suggest a likelihood-based model for estimating the effect of ORB on confidence intervals and p-values in meta-analysis. Correcting for bias has the effect of moving estimated treatment effects toward the null and hence more cautious assessments of significance. The bias can be very substantial, sometimes sufficient to completely overturn previous claims of significance. We re-analyze two contrasting examples, and derive a simple fixed effects approximation that can be used to give an initial estimate of the effect of ORB in practice.
Refinement of a Bias-Correction Procedure for the Weighted Likelihood Estimator of Ability. Research Report. ETS RR-07-23

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Jinming; Lu, Ting

2007-01-01

In practical applications of item response theory (IRT), item parameters are usually estimated first from a calibration sample. After treating these estimates as fixed and known, ability parameters are then estimated. However, the statistical inferences based on the estimated abilities can be misleading if the uncertainty of the item parameter…
Metabolic flux analysis of Cyanothece sp. ATCC 51142 under mixotrophic conditions.

PubMed

Alagesan, Swathi; Gaudana, Sandeep B; Sinha, Avinash; Wangikar, Pramod P

2013-11-01

Cyanobacteria are a group of photosynthetic prokaryotes capable of utilizing solar energy to fix atmospheric carbon dioxide to biomass. Despite several "proof of principle" studies, low product yield is an impediment in commercialization of cyanobacteria-derived biofuels. Estimation of intracellular reaction rates by (13)C metabolic flux analysis ((13)C-MFA) would be a step toward enhancing biofuel yield via metabolic engineering. We report (13)C-MFA for Cyanothece sp. ATCC 51142, a unicellular nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterium, known for enhanced hydrogen yield under mixotrophic conditions. Rates of reactions in the central carbon metabolism under nitrogen-fixing and -non-fixing conditions were estimated by monitoring the competitive incorporation of (12)C and (13)C from unlabeled CO2 and uniformly labeled glycerol, respectively, into terminal metabolites such as amino acids. The observed labeling patterns suggest mixotrophic growth under both the conditions, with a larger fraction of unlabeled carbon in nitrate-sufficient cultures asserting a greater contribution of carbon fixation by photosynthesis and an anaplerotic pathway. Indeed, flux analysis complements the higher growth observed under nitrate-sufficient conditions. On the other hand, the flux through the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway and tricarboxylic acid cycle was greater in nitrate-deficient conditions, possibly to supply the precursors and reducing equivalents needed for nitrogen fixation. In addition, an enhanced flux through fructose-6-phosphate phosphoketolase possibly suggests the organism's preferred mode under nitrogen-fixing conditions. The (13)C-MFA results complement the reported predictions by flux balance analysis and provide quantitative insight into the organism's distinct metabolic features under nitrogen-fixing and -non-fixing conditions.
10 CFR 603.560 - Estimate of project expenditures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Estimate of project expenditures. 603.560 Section 603.560 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ASSISTANCE REGULATIONS TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT AGREEMENTS Pre-Award Business Evaluation Fixed-Support Or Expenditure-Based Approach § 603.560 Estimate of project expenditures...
Mixed models, linear dependency, and identification in age-period-cohort models.

PubMed

O'Brien, Robert M

2017-07-20

This paper examines the identification problem in age-period-cohort models that use either linear or categorically coded ages, periods, and cohorts or combinations of these parameterizations. These models are not identified using the traditional fixed effect regression model approach because of a linear dependency between the ages, periods, and cohorts. However, these models can be identified if the researcher introduces a single just identifying constraint on the model coefficients. The problem with such constraints is that the results can differ substantially depending on the constraint chosen. Somewhat surprisingly, age-period-cohort models that specify one or more of ages and/or periods and/or cohorts as random effects are identified. This is the case without introducing an additional constraint. I label this identification as statistical model identification and show how statistical model identification comes about in mixed models and why which effects are treated as fixed and which are treated as random can substantially change the estimates of the age, period, and cohort effects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Quantifying and Mitigating the Effect of Preferential Sampling on Phylodynamic Inference

PubMed Central

Karcher, Michael D.; Palacios, Julia A.; Bedford, Trevor; Suchard, Marc A.; Minin, Vladimir N.

2016-01-01

Phylodynamics seeks to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. One way to accomplish this task formulates an observed sequence data likelihood exploiting a coalescent model for the sampled individuals’ genealogy and then integrating over all possible genealogies via Monte Carlo or, less efficiently, by conditioning on one genealogy estimated from the sequence data. However, when analyzing sequences sampled serially through time, current methods implicitly assume either that sampling times are fixed deterministically by the data collection protocol or that their distribution does not depend on the size of the population. Through simulation, we first show that, when sampling times do probabilistically depend on effective population size, estimation methods may be systematically biased. To correct for this deficiency, we propose a new model that explicitly accounts for preferential sampling by modeling the sampling times as an inhomogeneous Poisson process dependent on effective population size. We demonstrate that in the presence of preferential sampling our new model not only reduces bias, but also improves estimation precision. Finally, we compare the performance of the currently used phylodynamic methods with our proposed model through clinically-relevant, seasonal human influenza examples. PMID:26938243
CONCENTRATIONS AND ESTIMATED LOADS OF NITROGEN CONTRIBUTED BY TWO ADJACENT WETLAND STREAMS WITH DIFFERENT FLOW-SOURCE TERMS IN WATKINSVILLE, GA

EPA Science Inventory

Inorganic, fixed nitrogen from agricultural settings often is introduced to first-order streams via surface runoff and shallow ground-water flow. Best management practices for limiting the flux of fixed N to surface waters often include buffers such as wetlands. However, the eff...
CONCENTRATIONS AND ESTIMATED LOADS OF NITROGEN CONTRIBUTED BY TWO ADJACENT WETLAND STREAMS WITH DIFFERENT FLOW-SOURCE TERMS IN WATKINSVILLE, GEORGIA

EPA Science Inventory

Inorganic, fixed nitrogen from agricultural settings often is introduced to first-order streams via surface runoff and shallow ground-water flow. Best management practices for limiting the flux of fixed N to surface waters often include buffers such as wetlands. However, the eff...
33 CFR Appendix B to Part 277 - Hypothetical Example of Cost Apportionment

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...) $165,489 I b. Fixed charges (owner's share) 284,460 II A fixed charge such as engineering, design and... new bridge is designed for increased loading and width greater than that of the old bridge. Therefore, the estimated annual maintenance cost was based on a hypothetical bridge designed, but not constructed...
33 CFR Appendix B to Part 277 - Hypothetical Example of Cost Apportionment

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...) $165,489 I b. Fixed charges (owner's share) 284,460 II A fixed charge such as engineering, design and... new bridge is designed for increased loading and width greater than that of the old bridge. Therefore, the estimated annual maintenance cost was based on a hypothetical bridge designed, but not constructed...
33 CFR Appendix B to Part 277 - Hypothetical Example of Cost Apportionment

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) $165,489 I b. Fixed charges (owner's share) 284,460 II A fixed charge such as engineering, design and... new bridge is designed for increased loading and width greater than that of the old bridge. Therefore, the estimated annual maintenance cost was based on a hypothetical bridge designed, but not constructed...
33 CFR Appendix B to Part 277 - Hypothetical Example of Cost Apportionment

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...) $165,489 I b. Fixed charges (owner's share) 284,460 II A fixed charge such as engineering, design and... new bridge is designed for increased loading and width greater than that of the old bridge. Therefore, the estimated annual maintenance cost was based on a hypothetical bridge designed, but not constructed...
33 CFR Appendix B to Part 277 - Hypothetical Example of Cost Apportionment

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...) $165,489 I b. Fixed charges (owner's share) 284,460 II A fixed charge such as engineering, design and... new bridge is designed for increased loading and width greater than that of the old bridge. Therefore, the estimated annual maintenance cost was based on a hypothetical bridge designed, but not constructed...
Testing for Additivity in Chemical Mixtures Using a Fixed-Ratio Ray Design and Statistical Equivalence Testing Methods

EPA Science Inventory

Fixed-ratio ray designs have been used for detecting and characterizing interactions of large numbers of chemicals in combination. Single chemical dose-response data are used to predict an “additivity curve” along an environmentally relevant ray. A “mixture curve” is estimated fr...
Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

PubMed Central

Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

2014-01-01

Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915
Using structured additive regression models to estimate risk factors of malaria: analysis of 2010 Malawi malaria indicator survey data.

PubMed

Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

2014-01-01

After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities.
Estimating statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo efficiency-gain in the context of a correlated sampling Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy treatment planning with non-normal dose distribution.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D; Sampson, Andrew J; Deniz, Daniel; Alm Carlsson, Gudrun; Williamson, Jeffrey; Malusek, Alexandr

2012-01-01

Correlated sampling Monte Carlo methods can shorten computing times in brachytherapy treatment planning. Monte Carlo efficiency is typically estimated via efficiency gain, defined as the reduction in computing time by correlated sampling relative to conventional Monte Carlo methods when equal statistical uncertainties have been achieved. The determination of the efficiency gain uncertainty arising from random effects, however, is not a straightforward task specially when the error distribution is non-normal. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the F distribution and standardized uncertainty propagation methods (widely used in metrology to estimate uncertainty of physical measurements) for predicting confidence intervals about efficiency gain estimates derived from single Monte Carlo runs using fixed-collision correlated sampling in a simplified brachytherapy geometry. A bootstrap based algorithm was used to simulate the probability distribution of the efficiency gain estimates and the shortest 95% confidence interval was estimated from this distribution. It was found that the corresponding relative uncertainty was as large as 37% for this particular problem. The uncertainty propagation framework predicted confidence intervals reasonably well; however its main disadvantage was that uncertainties of input quantities had to be calculated in a separate run via a Monte Carlo method. The F distribution noticeably underestimated the confidence interval. These discrepancies were influenced by several photons with large statistical weights which made extremely large contributions to the scored absorbed dose difference. The mechanism of acquiring high statistical weights in the fixed-collision correlated sampling method was explained and a mitigation strategy was proposed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Placing an upper limit on cryptic marine sulphur cycling.

PubMed

Johnston, D T; Gill, B C; Masterson, A; Beirne, E; Casciotti, K L; Knapp, A N; Berelson, W

2014-09-25

A quantitative understanding of sources and sinks of fixed nitrogen in low-oxygen waters is required to explain the role of oxygen-minimum zones (OMZs) in controlling the fixed nitrogen inventory of the global ocean. Apparent imbalances in geochemical nitrogen budgets have spurred numerous studies to measure the contributions of heterotrophic and autotrophic N2-producing metabolisms (denitrification and anaerobic ammonia oxidation, respectively). Recently, 'cryptic' sulphur cycling was proposed as a partial solution to the fundamental biogeochemical problem of closing marine fixed-nitrogen budgets in intensely oxygen-deficient regions. The degree to which the cryptic sulphur cycle can fuel a loss of fixed nitrogen in the modern ocean requires the quantification of sulphur recycling in OMZ settings. Here we provide a new constraint for OMZ sulphate reduction based on isotopic profiles of oxygen ((18)O/(16)O) and sulphur ((33)S/(32)S, (34)S/(32)S) in seawater sulphate through oxygenated open-ocean and OMZ-bearing water columns. When coupled with observations and models of sulphate isotope dynamics and data-constrained model estimates of OMZ water-mass residence time, we find that previous estimates for sulphur-driven remineralization and loss of fixed nitrogen from the oceans are near the upper limit for what is possible given in situ sulphate isotope data.
Maternal employment and the health of low-income young children.

PubMed

Gennetian, Lisa A; Hill, Heather D; London, Andrew S; Lopoo, Leonard M

2010-05-01

This study examines whether maternal employment affects the health status of low-income, elementary-school-aged children using instrumental variables estimation and experimental data from a welfare-to-work program implemented in the early 1990s. Maternal report of child health status is predicted as a function of exogenous variation in maternal employment associated with random assignment to the experimental group. IV estimates show a modest adverse effect of maternal employment on children's health. Making use of data from another welfare-to-work program we propose that any adverse effect on child health may be tempered by increased family income and access to public health insurance coverage, findings with direct relevance to a number of current policy discussions. In a secondary analysis using fixed effects techniques on longitudinal survey data collected in 1998 and 2001, we find a comparable adverse effect of maternal employment on child health that supports the external validity of our primary result.
The Intergenerational Effects of Paternal Migration on Schooling and Work: What Can We Learn from Children's Time Allocations?

PubMed

Antman, Francisca M

2011-11-01

This paper explores the short-run effects of a father's U.S. migration on his children's schooling and work outcomes in Mexico. To get around the endogeneity of paternal migration, I use individual fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation (FEIV) where the instrumental variables are based on U.S. city-level employment statistics in two industries popular with Mexican immigrants. Overall, the estimates suggest that in the short-run, children reduce study hours and increase work hours in response to a father's U.S. migration. Decomposing the sample into sex- and age-specific groups suggests that this is mainly driven by the effects of paternal migration on 12-15 year-old boys. These results are consistent with a story in which the immediate aftermath of a father's migration is one of financial hardship that is borne in part by relatively young children.
The Intergenerational Effects of Paternal Migration on Schooling and Work: What Can We Learn from Children's Time Allocations?*

PubMed Central

Antman, Francisca M.

2012-01-01

This paper explores the short-run effects of a father's U.S. migration on his children's schooling and work outcomes in Mexico. To get around the endogeneity of paternal migration, I use individual fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation (FEIV) where the instrumental variables are based on U.S. city-level employment statistics in two industries popular with Mexican immigrants. Overall, the estimates suggest that in the short-run, children reduce study hours and increase work hours in response to a father's U.S. migration. Decomposing the sample into sex- and age-specific groups suggests that this is mainly driven by the effects of paternal migration on 12–15 year-old boys. These results are consistent with a story in which the immediate aftermath of a father's migration is one of financial hardship that is borne in part by relatively young children. PMID:22505791
Estimation of genetic parameters for milk yield in Murrah buffaloes by Bayesian inference.

PubMed

Breda, F C; Albuquerque, L G; Euclydes, R F; Bignardi, A B; Baldi, F; Torres, R A; Barbosa, L; Tonhati, H

2010-02-01

Random regression models were used to estimate genetic parameters for test-day milk yield in Murrah buffaloes using Bayesian inference. Data comprised 17,935 test-day milk records from 1,433 buffaloes. Twelve models were tested using different combinations of third-, fourth-, fifth-, sixth-, and seventh-order orthogonal polynomials of weeks of lactation for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. All models included the fixed effects of contemporary group, number of daily milkings and age of cow at calving as covariate (linear and quadratic effect). In addition, residual variances were considered to be heterogeneous with 6 classes of variance. Models were selected based on the residual mean square error, weighted average of residual variance estimates, and estimates of variance components, heritabilities, correlations, eigenvalues, and eigenfunctions. Results indicated that changes in the order of fit for additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects influenced the estimation of genetic parameters. Heritability estimates ranged from 0.19 to 0.31. Genetic correlation estimates were close to unity between adjacent test-day records, but decreased gradually as the interval between test-days increased. Results from mean squared error and weighted averages of residual variance estimates suggested that a model considering sixth- and seventh-order Legendre polynomials for additive and permanent environmental effects, respectively, and 6 classes for residual variances, provided the best fit. Nevertheless, this model presented the largest degree of complexity. A more parsimonious model, with fourth- and sixth-order polynomials, respectively, for these same effects, yielded very similar genetic parameter estimates. Therefore, this last model is recommended for routine applications. Copyright 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Accounting for individual differences and timing of events: estimating the effect of treatment on criminal convictions in heroin users.

PubMed

Røislien, Jo; Clausen, Thomas; Gran, Jon Michael; Bukten, Anne

2014-05-17

The reduction of crime is an important outcome of opioid maintenance treatment (OMT). Criminal intensity and treatment regimes vary among OMT patients, but this is rarely adjusted for in statistical analyses, which tend to focus on cohort incidence rates and rate ratios. The purpose of this work was to estimate the relationship between treatment and criminal convictions among OMT patients, adjusting for individual covariate information and timing of events, fitting time-to-event regression models of increasing complexity. National criminal records were cross linked with treatment data on 3221 patients starting OMT in Norway 1997-2003. In addition to calculating cohort incidence rates, criminal convictions was modelled as a recurrent event dependent variable, and treatment a time-dependent covariate, in Cox proportional hazards, Aalen's additive hazards, and semi-parametric additive hazards regression models. Both fixed and dynamic covariates were included. During OMT, the number of days with criminal convictions for the cohort as a whole was 61% lower than when not in treatment. OMT was associated with reduced number of days with criminal convictions in all time-to-event regression models, but the hazard ratio (95% CI) was strongly attenuated when adjusting for covariates; from 0.40 (0.35, 0.45) in a univariate model to 0.79 (0.72, 0.87) in a fully adjusted model. The hazard was lower for females and decreasing with older age, while increasing with high numbers of criminal convictions prior to application to OMT (all p < 0.001). The strongest predictors were level of criminal activity prior to entering into OMT, and having a recent criminal conviction (both p < 0.001). The effect of several predictors was significantly time-varying with their effects diminishing over time. Analyzing complex observational data regarding to fixed factors only overlooks important temporal information, and naïve cohort level incidence rates might result in biased estimates of the effect of interventions. Applying time-to-event regression models, properly adjusting for individual covariate information and timing of various events, allows for more precise and reliable effect estimates, as well as painting a more nuanced picture that can aid health care professionals and policy makers.
Maternal and perinatal mortality by place of delivery in sub-Saharan Africa: a meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies.

PubMed

Chinkhumba, Jobiba; De Allegri, Manuela; Muula, Adamson S; Robberstad, Bjarne

2014-09-28

Facility-based delivery has gained traction as a key strategy for reducing maternal and perinatal mortality in developing countries. However, robust evidence of impact of place of delivery on maternal and perinatal mortality is lacking. We aimed to estimate the risk of maternal and perinatal mortality by place of delivery in sub-Saharan Africa. We conducted a systematic review of population-based cohort studies reporting on risk of maternal or perinatal mortality at the individual level by place of delivery in sub-Saharan Africa. Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess study quality. Outcomes were summarized in pooled analyses using fixed and random effects models. We calculated attributable risk percentage reduction in mortality to estimate exposure effect. We report mortality ratios, crude odds ratios and associated 95% confidence intervals. We found 9 population-based cohort studies: 6 reporting on perinatal and 3 on maternal mortality. The mean study quality score was 10 out of 15 points. Control for confounders varied between the studies. A total of 36,772 pregnancy episodes were included in the analyses. Overall, perinatal mortality is 21% higher for home compared to facility-based deliveries, but the difference is only significant when produced with a fixed effects model (OR 1.21, 95% CI: 1.02-1.46) and not when produced by a random effects model (OR 1.21, 95% CI: 0.79-1.84). Under best settings, up to 14 perinatal deaths might be averted per 1000 births if the women delivered at facilities instead of homes. We found significantly increased risk of maternal mortality for facility-based compared to home deliveries (OR 2.29, 95% CI: 1.58-3.31), precluding estimates of attributable risk fraction. Evaluating the impact of facility-based delivery strategy on maternal and perinatal mortality using population-based studies is complicated by selection bias and poor control of confounders. Studies that pool data at an individual level may overcome some of these problems and provide better estimates of relative effectiveness of place of delivery in the region.
Influence of turkey meat on residual nitrite in cured meat products.

PubMed

Kilic, B; Cassens, R G; Borchert, L L

2001-02-01

A response surface experimental design was employed to estimate residual nitrite level at various initial nitrite concentrations, percent turkey meat in the formula, and heat quantity (F) values using a typical wiener as the test system. Pork and mechanically separated turkey were used as the meat ingredients. Residual nitrite and pH were measured at day 1, 7 days, 14 days, and 49 days after processing. Protein, fat, salt, moisture, and CIE (L*a*b*) color values were also determined. Results showed that the effect of turkey meat on residual nitrite level was significant (P < 0.01). An increased amount of turkey meat in the formula resulted in lower residual nitrite levels at a fixed pH. The residual nitrite level was initially proportional to initial nitrite concentration, but it became a nonsignificant factor during longer storage time. Differences in heat quantity had a significant effect (P < 0.05) on residual nitrite level initially. Greater heat quantity decreased residual nitrite level in finished cured meat products at a fixed pH. However, this effect became nonsignificant during longer storage. Reduction of residual nitrite in wieners because of turkey meat addition at a fixed pH was due to characteristics of the turkey tissue, but the mechanism of action remains unknown. It was also established that commercial wieners had a higher pH if poultry meat was included in the formulation.
Cost effectiveness of peginterferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin versus interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin for initial treatment of chronic hepatitis C.

PubMed

Siebert, U; Sroczynski, G; Rossol, S; Wasem, J; Ravens-Sieberer, U; Kurth, B M; Manns, M P; McHutchison, J G; Wong, J B

2003-03-01

Peginterferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin therapy in previously untreated patients with chronic hepatitis C yields the highest sustained virological response rates of any treatment strategy but is expensive. To estimate the cost effectiveness of treatment with peginterferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin compared with interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin for initial treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis C. Individual patient level data from a randomised clinical trial with peginterferon plus ribavirin were applied to a previously published and validated Markov model to project lifelong clinical outcomes. Quality of life and economic estimates were based on German patient data. We used a societal perspective and applied a 3% annual discount rate. Compared with no antiviral therapy, peginterferon plus fixed or weight based dosing of ribavirin increased life expectancy by 4.2 and 4.7 years, respectively. Compared with standard interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin, peginterferon plus fixed or weight based dosing of ribavirin increased life expectancy by 0.5 and by 1.0 years with incremental cost effectiveness ratios of 11,800 euros and 6600 euros per quality adjusted life year (QALY), respectively. Subgroup analyses by genotype, viral load, sex, and histology showed that peginterferon plus weight based ribavirin remained cost effective compared with other well accepted medical treatments. Peginterferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin should reduce the incidence of liver complications, prolong life, improve quality of life, and be cost effective for the initial treatment of chronic hepatitis C.
The Exponent of High-frequency Source Spectral Falloff and Contribution to Source Parameter Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiuchi, R.; Mori, J. J.

2015-12-01

As a way to understand the characteristics of the earthquake source, studies of source parameters (such as radiated energy and stress drop) and their scaling are important. In order to estimate source parameters reliably, often we must use appropriate source spectrum models and the omega-square model is most frequently used. In this model, the spectrum is flat in lower frequencies and the falloff is proportional to the angular frequency squared. However, Some studies (e.g. Allmann and Shearer, 2009; Yagi et al., 2012) reported that the exponent of the high frequency falloff is other than -2. Therefore, in this study we estimate the source parameters using a spectral model for which the falloff exponent is not fixed. We analyze the mainshock and larger aftershocks of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake. Firstly, we calculate the P wave and SH wave spectra using empirical Green functions (EGF) to remove the path effect (such as attenuation) and site effect. For the EGF event, we select a smaller earthquake that is highly-correlated with the target event. In order to obtain the stable results, we calculate the spectral ratios using a multitaper spectrum analysis (Prieto et al., 2009). Then we take a geometric mean from multiple stations. Finally, using the obtained spectra ratios, we perform a grid search to determine the high frequency falloffs, as well as corner frequency of both of events. Our results indicate the high frequency falloff exponent is often less than 2.0. We do not observe any regional, focal mechanism, or depth dependencies for the falloff exponent. In addition, our estimated corner frequencies and falloff exponents are consistent between the P wave and SH wave analysis. In our presentation, we show differences in estimated source parameters using a fixed omega-square model and a model allowing variable high-frequency falloff.
Integration of sensory force feedback is disturbed in CRPS-related dystonia.

PubMed

Mugge, Winfred; van der Helm, Frans C T; Schouten, Alfred C

2013-01-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is characterized by pain and disturbed blood flow, temperature regulation and motor control. Approximately 25% of cases develop fixed dystonia. The origin of this movement disorder is poorly understood, although recent insights suggest involvement of disturbed force feedback. Assessment of sensorimotor integration may provide insight into the pathophysiology of fixed dystonia. Sensory weighting is the process of integrating and weighting sensory feedback channels in the central nervous system to improve the state estimate. It was hypothesized that patients with CRPS-related dystonia bias sensory weighting of force and position toward position due to the unreliability of force feedback. The current study provides experimental evidence for dysfunctional sensory integration in fixed dystonia, showing that CRPS-patients with fixed dystonia weight force and position feedback differently than controls do. The study shows reduced force feedback weights in CRPS-patients with fixed dystonia, making it the first to demonstrate disturbed integration of force feedback in fixed dystonia, an important step towards understanding the pathophysiology of fixed dystonia.
Inter-track interference mitigation with two-dimensional variable equalizer for bit patterned media recording

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yao; Vijaya Kumar, B. V. K.

2017-05-01

The increased track density in bit patterned media recording (BPMR) causes increased inter-track interference (ITI), which degrades the bit error rate (BER) performance. In order to mitigate the effect of the ITI, signals from multiple tracks can be equalized by a 2D equalizer with 1D target. Usually, the 2D fixed equalizer coefficients are obtained by using a pseudo-random bit sequence (PRBS) for training. In this study, a 2D variable equalizer is proposed, where various sets of 2D equalizer coefficients are predetermined and stored for different ITI patterns besides the usual PRBS training. For data detection, as the ITI patterns are unknown in the first global iteration, the main and adjacent tracks are equalized with the conventional 2D fixed equalizer, detected with Bahl-Cocke-Jelinek-Raviv (BCJR) detector and decoded with low-density parity-check (LDPC) decoder. Then using the estimated bit information from main and adjacent tracks, the ITI pattern for each island of the main track can be estimated and the corresponding 2D variable equalizers are used to better equalize the bits on the main track. This process is executed iteratively by feeding back the main track information. Simulation results indicate that for both single-track and two-track detection, the proposed 2D variable equalizer can achieve better BER and frame error rate (FER) compared to that with the 2D fixed equalizer.
Defining and estimating causal direct and indirect effects when setting the mediator to specific values is not feasible.

PubMed

Lok, Judith J

2016-09-30

Natural direct and indirect effects decompose the effect of a treatment into the part that is mediated by a covariate (the mediator) and the part that is not. Their definitions rely on the concept of outcomes under treatment with the mediator 'set' to its value without treatment. Typically, the mechanism through which the mediator is set to this value is left unspecified, and in many applications, it may be challenging to fix the mediator to particular values for each unit or patient. Moreover, how one sets the mediator may affect the distribution of the outcome. This article introduces 'organic' direct and indirect effects, which can be defined and estimated without relying on setting the mediator to specific values. Organic direct and indirect effects can be applied, for example, to estimate how much of the effect of some treatments for HIV/AIDS on mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection is mediated by the effect of the treatment on the HIV viral load in the blood of the mother. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Meta-STEPP: subpopulation treatment effect pattern plot for individual patient data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Xin Victoria; Cole, Bernard; Bonetti, Marco; Gelber, Richard D

2016-09-20

We have developed a method, called Meta-STEPP (subpopulation treatment effect pattern plot for meta-analysis), to explore treatment effect heterogeneity across covariate values in the meta-analysis setting for time-to-event data when the covariate of interest is continuous. Meta-STEPP forms overlapping subpopulations from individual patient data containing similar numbers of events with increasing covariate values, estimates subpopulation treatment effects using standard fixed-effects meta-analysis methodology, displays the estimated subpopulation treatment effect as a function of the covariate values, and provides a statistical test to detect possibly complex treatment-covariate interactions. Simulation studies show that this test has adequate type-I error rate recovery as well as power when reasonable window sizes are chosen. When applied to eight breast cancer trials, Meta-STEPP suggests that chemotherapy is less effective for tumors with high estrogen receptor expression compared with those with low expression. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Beyond Absenteeism: Father Incarceration and Child Development*

PubMed Central

Geller, Amanda; Cooper, Carey E.; Garfinkel, Irwin; Schwartz-Soicher, Ofira; Mincy, Ronald B.

2013-01-01

High rates of incarceration among American men, coupled with high rates of fatherhood among men in prison, have motivated recent research on the effects of parental imprisonment on children’s development. We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to examine the relationship between paternal incarceration and developmental outcomes for approximately 3,000 urban children. We estimate cross-sectional and longitudinal regression models that control not only for fathers’ basic demographic characteristics and a rich set of potential confounders, but also for several measures of pre-incarceration child development and family fixed effects. We find significant increases in aggressive behaviors among children whose fathers are incarcerated, and some evidence of increased attention problems. The estimated effects of paternal incarceration are stronger than those of other forms of father absence, suggesting that children with incarcerated fathers may require specialized support from caretakers, teachers, and social service providers. The estimated effects are stronger for children who lived with their fathers prior to incarceration, but are also significant for children of nonresident fathers, suggesting that incarceration places children at risk through family hardships including and beyond parent-child separation. PMID:22203452
Genetic parameters for milk, fat and protein yields in Murrah buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis Artiodactyla, Bovidae)

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

The objective of the present study was to estimate genetic parameters for test-day milk, fat and protein yields and 305-day-yields in Murrah buffaloes. 4,757 complete lactations of Murrah buffaloes were analyzed. Co-variance components were estimated by the restricted maximum likelihood method. The models included additive direct genetic and permanent environmental effects as random effects, and the fixed effects of contemporary group, milking number and age of the cow at calving as linear and quadratic covariables. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-year-month of test for test-day yields and by herd-year-season of calving for 305-day yields. The heritability estimates obtained by two-trait analysis ranged from 0.15 to 0.24 for milk, 0.16 to 0.23 for protein and 0.13 to 0.22 for fat, yields. Genetic and phenotypic correlations were all positive. The observed population additive genetic variation indicated that selection might be an effective tool in changing population means in milk, fat and protein yields. PMID:21637608
Marked and variable inhibition by chemical fixation of cytochrome oxidase and succinate dehydrogenase in single motoneurons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chalmers, G. R.; Edgerton, V. R.

1989-01-01

The effect of tissue fixation on succinate dehydrogenase and cytochrome oxidase activity in single motoneurons of the rat was demonstrated using a computer image processing system. Inhibition of enzyme activity by chemical fixation was variable, with some motoneurons being affected more than others. It was concluded that quantification of enzymatic activity in chemically fixed tissue provides an imprecise estimate of enzyme activities found in fresh-frozen tissues.
Fixed-rate layered multicast congestion control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bing, Zhang; Bing, Yuan; Zengji, Liu

2006-10-01

A new fixed-rate layered multicast congestion control algorithm called FLMCC is proposed. The sender of a multicast session transmits data packets at a fixed rate on each layer, while receivers each obtain different throughput by cumulatively subscribing to deferent number of layers based on their expected rates. In order to provide TCP-friendliness and estimate the expected rate accurately, a window-based mechanism implemented at receivers is presented. To achieve this, each receiver maintains a congestion window, adjusts it based on the GAIMD algorithm, and from the congestion window an expected rate is calculated. To measure RTT, a new method is presented which combines an accurate measurement with a rough estimation. A feedback suppression based on a random timer mechanism is given to avoid feedback implosion in the accurate measurement. The protocol is simple in its implementation. Simulations indicate that FLMCC shows good TCP-friendliness, responsiveness as well as intra-protocol fairness, and provides high link utilization.
Impurity Correction Techniques Applied to Existing Doping Measurements of Impurities in Zinc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearce, J. V.; Sun, J. P.; Zhang, J. T.; Deng, X. L.

2017-01-01

Impurities represent the most significant source of uncertainty in most metal fixed points used for the realization of the International Temperature Scale of 1990 (ITS-90). There are a number of different methods for quantifying the effect of impurities on the freezing temperature of ITS-90 fixed points, many of which rely on an accurate knowledge of the liquidus slope in the limit of low concentration. A key method of determining the liquidus slope is to measure the freezing temperature of a fixed-point material as it is progressively doped with a known amount of impurity. Recently, a series of measurements of the freezing and melting temperature of `slim' Zn fixed-point cells doped with Ag, Fe, Ni, and Pb were presented. Here, additional measurements of the Zn-X system are presented using Ga as a dopant, and the data (Zn-Ag, Zn-Fe, Zn-Ni, Zn-Pb, and Zn-Ga) have been re-analyzed to demonstrate the use of a fitting method based on Scheil solidification which is applied to both melting and freezing curves. In addition, the utility of the Sum of Individual Estimates method is explored with these systems in the context of a recently enhanced database of liquidus slopes of impurities in Zn in the limit of low concentration.
Continuous prophylaxis with recombinant factor IX Fc fusion protein and conventional recombinant factor IX products: comparisons of efficacy and weekly factor consumption.

PubMed

Iorio, Alfonso; Krishnan, Sangeeta; Myrén, Karl-Johan; Lethagen, Stefan; McCormick, Nora; Yermakov, Sander; Karner, Paul

2017-04-01

Continuous prophylaxis for patients with hemophilia B requires frequent injections that are burdensome and that may lead to suboptimal adherence and outcomes. Hence, therapies requiring less-frequent injections are needed. In the absence of head-to-head comparisons, this study compared the first extended-half-life-recombinant factor IX (rFIX) product-recombinant factor IX Fc fusion protein (rFIXFc)-with conventional rFIX products based on annualized bleed rates (ABRs) and factor consumption reported in studies of continuous prophylaxis. This study compared ABRs and weekly factor consumption rates in clinical studies of continuous prophylaxis treatment with rFIXFc and conventional rFIX products (identified by systematic literature review) in previously-treated adolescents and adults with moderate-to-severe hemophilia B. Meta-analysis was used to pool ABRs reported for conventional rFIX products for comparison. Comparisons of weekly factor consumption were based on the mean, reported or estimated from the mean dose per injection. Five conventional rFIX studies (injections 1 to >3 times/week) met the criteria for comparison with once-weekly rFIXFc reported by the B-LONG study. The pooled mean ABR for conventional rFIX was slightly higher than but comparable to rFIXFc (difference=0.71; p = 0.210). Weekly factor consumption was significantly lower with rFIXFc than in conventional rFIX studies (difference in means = 42.8-74.5 IU/kg/week [93-161%], p < 0.001). Comparisons of clinical study results suggest weekly injections with rFIXFc result in similar bleeding rates and significantly lower weekly factor consumption compared with more-frequently-injected conventional rFIX products. The real-world effectiveness of rFIXFc may be higher based on results from a model of the impact of simulated differences in adherence.

Price elasticities of alcohol demand: evidence from Russia.

PubMed

Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Roberts, Bayard; McKee, Martin

2015-03-01

In this paper, we estimate price elasticities of demand of several types of alcoholic drinks, using 14 rounds of data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey-HSE, collected from 1994 until 2009. We deal with potential confounding problems by taking advantage of a large number of control variables, as well as by estimating community fixed effect models. All in all, although alcohol prices do appear to influence consumption behaviour in Russia, in most cases the size of effect is modest. The finding that two particularly problematic drinks-cheap vodka and fortified wine-are substitute goods also suggests that increasing their prices may not lead to smaller alcohol consumption. Therefore, any alcohol pricing policies in Russia must be supplemented with other measures, such as restrictions on numbers of sales outlets or their opening times.
On the importance of commodity and energy price shocks for the macroeconomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edelstein, Paul S.

Although higher commodity prices are commonly thought to presage higher rates of inflation, the existing literature suggests that the predictive power of commodity prices for inflation has waned since the 1980s. In the first chapter, I show that this result can be overturned using state-of-the-art forecast combination methods. Moreover, commodity prices are shown to contain predictive information not contained in the leading principal components of a broad set of macroeconomic and financial variables. These improved inflation forecasts are of little value, however, for predicting actual Fed policy decisions. The remaining two chapters study the effect of energy price shocks on U.S. consumer and business expenditures. In the second chapter, I show that there is no statistical support for the presence of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price increases and decreases. This finding has important implications for empirical and theoretical models of the transmission of energy price shocks. I then quantify the direct effect on real consumption of (1) unanticipated changes in discretionary income, (2) shifts in precautionary savings, and (3) changes in the operating cost of energy-using durables. Finally, I trace the declining importance of energy price shocks relative to the 1970s to changes in the composition of U.S. automobile production and the declining overall importance of the U.S. automobile sector. An alternative source of asymmetry is the response of nonresidential fixed investment to energy price shocks. In the third chapter, I show that the apparent asymmetry in the estimated responses of business fixed investment in equipment and structures is largely an artifact (1) of the aggregation of mining-related expenditures by the oil, natural gas, and coal mining industry and all other expenditures, and (2) of ignoring an exogenous shift in investment caused by the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Once symmetry is imposed and miningrelated expenditures are excluded, the estimated response of business fixed investment in equipment and structures tends to be small and mostly statistically insignificant. Historical decompositions show that energy price shocks have played a minor role in driving fluctuations in nonresidential fixed investment other than investment in mining.
MSE-impact of PPP-RTK ZTD estimation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Khodabandeh, A.; Teunissen, P. J. G.

2018-06-01

In PPP-RTK network processing, the wet component of the zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) cannot be precisely modelled and thus remains unknown in the observation equations. For small networks, the tropospheric mapping functions of different stations to a given satellite are almost equal to each other, thereby causing a near rank-deficiency between the ZTDs and satellite clocks. The stated near rank-deficiency can be solved by estimating the wet ZTD components relatively to that of the reference receiver, while the wet ZTD component of the reference receiver is constrained to zero. However, by increasing network scale and humidity around the reference receiver, enlarged mismodelled effects could bias the network and the user solutions. To consider both the influences of the noise and the biases, the mean-squared errors (MSEs) of different network and user parameters are studied analytically employing both the ZTD estimation strategies. We conclude that for a certain set of parameters, the difference in their MSE structures using both strategies is only driven by the square of the reference wet ZTD component and the formal variance of its solution. Depending on the network scale and the humidity condition around the reference receiver, the ZTD estimation strategy that delivers more accurate solutions might be different. Simulations are performed to illustrate the conclusions made by analytical studies. We find that estimating the ZTDs relatively in large networks and humid regions (for the reference receiver) could significantly degrade the network ambiguity success rates. Using ambiguity-fixed network-derived PPP-RTK corrections, for networks with an inter-station distance within 100 km, the choices of the ZTD estimation strategy is not crucial for single-epoch ambiguity-fixed user positioning. Using ambiguity-float network corrections, for networks with inter-station distances of 100, 300 and 500 km in humid regions (for the reference receiver), the root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs) of the estimated user coordinates using relative ZTD estimation could be higher than those under the absolute case with differences up to millimetres, centimetres and decimetres, respectively.
Effects of sample size and sampling frequency on studies of brown bear home ranges and habitat use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arthur, Steve M.; Schwartz, Charles C.

1999-01-01

We equipped 9 brown bears (Ursus arctos) on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, with collars containing both conventional very-high-frequency (VHF) transmitters and global positioning system (GPS) receivers programmed to determine an animal's position at 5.75-hr intervals. We calculated minimum convex polygon (MCP) and fixed and adaptive kernel home ranges for randomly-selected subsets of the GPS data to examine the effects of sample size on accuracy and precision of home range estimates. We also compared results obtained by weekly aerial radiotracking versus more frequent GPS locations to test for biases in conventional radiotracking data. Home ranges based on the MCP were 20-606 km2 (x = 201) for aerial radiotracking data (n = 12-16 locations/bear) and 116-1,505 km2 (x = 522) for the complete GPS data sets (n = 245-466 locations/bear). Fixed kernel home ranges were 34-955 km2 (x = 224) for radiotracking data and 16-130 km2 (x = 60) for the GPS data. Differences between means for radiotracking and GPS data were due primarily to the larger samples provided by the GPS data. Means did not differ between radiotracking data and equivalent-sized subsets of GPS data (P > 0.10). For the MCP, home range area increased and variability decreased asymptotically with number of locations. For the kernel models, both area and variability decreased with increasing sample size. Simulations suggested that the MCP and kernel models required >60 and >80 locations, respectively, for estimates to be both accurate (change in area <1%/additional location) and precise (CV < 50%). Although the radiotracking data appeared unbiased, except for the relationship between area and sample size, these data failed to indicate some areas that likely were important to bears. Our results suggest that the usefulness of conventional radiotracking data may be limited by potential biases and variability due to small samples. Investigators that use home range estimates in statistical tests should consider the effects of variability of those estimates. Use of GPS-equipped collars can facilitate obtaining larger samples of unbiased data and improve accuracy and precision of home range estimates.
A Geometric Analysis of when Fixed Weighting Schemes Will Outperform Ordinary Least Squares

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis-Stober, Clintin P.

2011-01-01

Many researchers have demonstrated that fixed, exogenously chosen weights can be useful alternatives to Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation within the linear model (e.g., Dawes, Am. Psychol. 34:571-582, 1979; Einhorn & Hogarth, Org. Behav. Human Perform. 13:171-192, 1975; Wainer, Psychol. Bull. 83:213-217, 1976). Generalizing the approach of…
Winter home-range characteristics of American Marten (Martes americana) in Northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Joseph B. Dumyahn; Patrick A. Zollner

2007-01-01

We estimated home-range size for American marten (Martes americana) in northern Wisconsin during the winter months of 2001-2004, and compared the proportion of cover-type selection categories (highly used, neutral and avoided) among home-ranges (95% fixed-kernel), core areas (50% fixed-kernel) and the study area. Average winter homerange size was 3....
Sample-based estimation of tree species richness in a wet tropical forest compartment

Treesearch

Steen Magnussen; Raphael Pelissier

2007-01-01

Petersen's capture-recapture ratio estimator and the well-known bootstrap estimator are compared across a range of simulated low-intensity simple random sampling with fixed-area plots of 100 m? in a rich wet tropical forest compartment with 93 tree species in the Western Ghats of India. Petersen's ratio estimator was uniformly superior to the bootstrap...
Implementation of a Battery Health Monitor and Vertical Lift Aircraft Testbed for the Application of an Electrochemisty-Based State of Charge Estimator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potteiger, Timothy R.; Eure, Kenneth W.; Levenstein, David

2017-01-01

Prediction methods concerning remaining charge in lithium-ion batteries that power unmanned aerial vehicles are of critical concern for the safe fulfillment of mission objectives. In recent years, lithium-ion batteries have been the power source for both fixed wing and vertical lift electric vehicles. The purpose of this document is to describe in detail the implementation of a battery health monitor for estimating the state of charge of a lithium-ion battery and a lithium-ion polymer battery that is used to power a vertical lift aircraft test-bed. It will be demonstrated that an electro-chemistry based state of charge estimator effectively tracks battery discharge characteristics and may be employed as a useful tool in monitoring battery health.
Quality metric for spherical panoramic video

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharchenko, Vladyslav; Choi, Kwang Pyo; Park, Jeong Hoon

2016-09-01

Virtual reality (VR)/ augmented reality (AR) applications allow users to view artificial content of a surrounding space simulating presence effect with a help of special applications or devices. Synthetic contents production is well known process form computer graphics domain and pipeline has been already fixed in the industry. However emerging multimedia formats for immersive entertainment applications such as free-viewpoint television (FTV) or spherical panoramic video require different approaches in content management and quality assessment. The international standardization on FTV has been promoted by MPEG. This paper is dedicated to discussion of immersive media distribution format and quality estimation process. Accuracy and reliability of the proposed objective quality estimation method had been verified with spherical panoramic images demonstrating good correlation results with subjective quality estimation held by a group of experts.
N2-fixing legumes are linked to enhanced mineral dissolution and microbiome modulations in Neotropical rainforests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epihov, Dimitar; Batterman, Sarah; Hedin, Lars; Saltonstall, Kristin; Hall, Jefferson; Leake, Jonathan; Beerling, David

2017-04-01

Legumes represent the dominant family of many tropical forests with estimates of 120 billion legume trees in the Amazon basin alone. Many rainforest legume trees form symbioses with N2-fixing bacteria. In the process of atmospheric N2-fixation large amounts of nitrogen-rich litter are generated, supplying half of all nitrogen required to support secondary rainforest succession. However, it is unclear how N2-fixers affect the biogeochemical cycling of other essential nutrients by affecting the rates of mineral dissolution and rock weathering. Here we show that N2-fixing legumes in young Panamanian rainforests promote acidification and enhance silicate rock weathering by a factor of 2 compared to non-fixing trees. We report that N2-fixers also associate with enhanced dissolution of Al- and Fe-bearing secondary minerals native to tropical oxisols. In legume-rich neighbourhoods, non-fixers benefited from raised weathering rates relative to those of legume-free zones thus suggesting a positive community effect driven by N2-fixers. These changes in weathering potential were tracked by parallel functional and structural changes in the soil and rock microbiomes. Our findings support the view that N2-fixing legumes are central components of biogeochemical cycling, associated with enhanced release of Fe- and Al-bound P and primary mineral products (Mg, Mo). Rainforest legume services therefore bear important implications to short-term C cycling related to forest growth and the long-term C cycle related to marine carbonate deposition fuelled by silicate weathering.
Is GPS telemetry location error screening beneficial?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ironside, Kirsten E.; Mattson, David J.; Arundel, Terry; Hansen, Jered R.

2017-01-01

The accuracy of global positioning system (GPS) locations obtained from study animals tagged with GPS monitoring devices has been a concern as to the degree it influences assessments of movement patterns, space use, and resource selection estimates. Many methods have been proposed for screening data to retain the most accurate positions for analysis, based on dilution of precision (DOP) measures, and whether the position is a two dimensional or three dimensional fix. Here we further explore the utility of these measures, by testing a Telonics GEN3 GPS collar's positional accuracy across a wide range of environmental conditions. We found the relationship between location error and fix dimension and DOP metrics extremely weak (r2adj ∼ 0.01) in our study area. Environmental factors such as topographic exposure, canopy cover, and vegetation height explained more of the variance (r2adj = 15.08%). Our field testing covered sites where sky-view was so limited it affected GPS performance to the degree fix attempts failed frequently (fix success rates ranged 0.00–100.00% over 67 sites). Screening data using PDOP did not effectively reduce the location error in the remaining dataset. Removing two dimensional fixes reduced the mean location error by 10.95 meters, but also resulted in a 54.50% data reduction. Therefore screening data under the range of conditions sampled here would reduce information on animal movement with minor improvements in accuracy and potentially introduce bias towards more open terrain and vegetation.
The temporal effects of parental divorce on youth substance use.

PubMed

Arkes, Jeremy

2013-02-01

This article examines how the parental divorce process affects youth substance use at various stages relative to the divorce. With child-fixed-effect models and a baseline period that is long before the divorce, the estimates rely on within-child changes over time. Youth are more likely to use alcohol 2-4 years before a parental divorce. After the divorce, youth have an increased risk of using alcohol and marijuana, with the effect for marijuana being 12.1 percentage points in the two years right after the divorce (p = .010). The magnitudes of the effects persist as time passes from the divorce.
Effects of calcium feeding strategy on true ileal phosphorus digestibility and true phosphorus retention determined with growing broilers.

PubMed

Perryman, K R; Masey O'Neill, H V; Bedford, M R; Dozier, W A

2016-05-01

An experiment utilizing 960 Ross × Ross 708 male broilers was conducted to determine the effects of Ca feeding strategy on true ileal (prececal) P digestibility (TIPD) and true P retention (TPR) of corn. Experimental diets were formulated with 1 of 3 dietary Ca feeding strategies (0.95%, 0.13%, or variable Ca concentrations to maintain a 2.1:1 Ca:P ratio) and contain 0, 25, 50, or 75% corn. A practical corn-soybean meal diet (1.4:1 Ca:P ratio) was fed as a control. After receiving a common starter diet, experimental diets were fed from 19 to 26 d of age. After a 48-h dietary adaptation period, a 48-h retention assay was conducted. At 25 and 26 d of age, ileal digesta were collected from 8 birds per cage. Broilers consuming the control diet had higher (P<0.001) BW gain, feed intake, digesta P, and excreta P than broilers consuming the corn titration diets. Digesta and excreta P increased (linear, P<0.05) with graded increases of corn. True ileal P digestibility and TPR were highest (P<0.05) for diets with 0.13% Ca (57.3 and 69.5%, respectively) compared with diets formulated with a 2.1:1 Ca:P ratio (41.2 and 37.8%, respectively) or 0.95% Ca (25.4 and 39.0%, respectively). Values for TPR were higher (P<0.05) than those for TIPD except when the dietary Ca:P ratio was fixed. Additionally, negative endogenous P losses were predicted by regression equations when TPR was estimated for birds fed titration diets with the fixed Ca:P ratio. Changing the Ca concentration of the diets to maintain a fixed Ca:P ratio influenced (P<0.001) apparent P retention, which affected the estimate for TPR due to the prediction of negative endogenous P losses. These data demonstrated that regression analysis may have limitations when estimating the TIPD or TPR of corn when formulating diets with different Ca feeding strategies. More research is necessary to elucidate the factors that contributed to regression equations predicting negative endogenous P losses. © 2016 Poultry Science Association Inc.
Optimal distribution of integration time for intensity measurements in Stokes polarimetry.

PubMed

Li, Xiaobo; Liu, Tiegen; Huang, Bingjing; Song, Zhanjie; Hu, Haofeng

2015-10-19

We consider the typical Stokes polarimetry system, which performs four intensity measurements to estimate a Stokes vector. We show that if the total integration time of intensity measurements is fixed, the variance of the Stokes vector estimator depends on the distribution of the integration time at four intensity measurements. Therefore, by optimizing the distribution of integration time, the variance of the Stokes vector estimator can be decreased. In this paper, we obtain the closed-form solution of the optimal distribution of integration time by employing Lagrange multiplier method. According to the theoretical analysis and real-world experiment, it is shown that the total variance of the Stokes vector estimator can be significantly decreased about 40% in the case discussed in this paper. The method proposed in this paper can effectively decrease the measurement variance and thus statistically improves the measurement accuracy of the polarimetric system.
Optimal distribution of integration time for intensity measurements in degree of linear polarization polarimetry.

PubMed

Li, Xiaobo; Hu, Haofeng; Liu, Tiegen; Huang, Bingjing; Song, Zhanjie

2016-04-04

We consider the degree of linear polarization (DOLP) polarimetry system, which performs two intensity measurements at orthogonal polarization states to estimate DOLP. We show that if the total integration time of intensity measurements is fixed, the variance of the DOLP estimator depends on the distribution of integration time for two intensity measurements. Therefore, by optimizing the distribution of integration time, the variance of the DOLP estimator can be decreased. In this paper, we obtain the closed-form solution of the optimal distribution of integration time in an approximate way by employing Delta method and Lagrange multiplier method. According to the theoretical analyses and real-world experiments, it is shown that the variance of the DOLP estimator can be decreased for any value of DOLP. The method proposed in this paper can effectively decrease the measurement variance and thus statistically improve the measurement accuracy of the polarimetry system.
Optimizing fish sampling for fish - mercury bioaccumulation factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scudder Eikenberry, Barbara C.; Riva-Murray, Karen; Knightes, Christopher D.; Journey, Celeste A.; Chasar, Lia C.; Brigham, Mark E.; Bradley, Paul M.

2015-01-01

Fish Bioaccumulation Factors (BAFs; ratios of mercury (Hg) in fish (Hgfish) and water (Hgwater)) are used to develop Total Maximum Daily Load and water quality criteria for Hg-impaired waters. Both applications require representative Hgfish estimates and, thus, are sensitive to sampling and data-treatment methods. Data collected by fixed protocol from 11 streams in 5 states distributed across the US were used to assess the effects of Hgfish normalization/standardization methods and fish sample numbers on BAF estimates. Fish length, followed by weight, was most correlated to adult top-predator Hgfish. Site-specific BAFs based on length-normalized and standardized Hgfish estimates demonstrated up to 50% less variability than those based on non-normalized Hgfish. Permutation analysis indicated that length-normalized and standardized Hgfish estimates based on at least 8 trout or 5 bass resulted in mean Hgfish coefficients of variation less than 20%. These results are intended to support regulatory mercury monitoring and load-reduction program improvements.
Impact of caregiver incentives on child health: Evidence from an experiment with Anganwadi workers in India.

PubMed

Singh, Prakarsh; Masters, William A

2017-09-01

This paper tests the effectiveness of performance pay and bonuses among government childcare workers in India. In a controlled study of 160 ICDS centers serving over 4000 children, we randomly assign workers to either fixed bonuses or payments based on the nutritional status of children in their care, and also collect data from a control group receiving only standard salaries. In all three study arms mothers receive nutrition information. We find that performance pay reduces underweight prevalence by about 5 percentage points over 3 months, and height improves by about one centimeter. Impacts on weight continue when incentives are renewed and return to parallel trends thereafter. Fixed bonuses are less expensive but lead to smaller and less precisely estimated effects than performance pay, especially for children near malnutrition thresholds. Both treatments improve worker effort and communication with mothers, who in turn feed a more calorific diet to children at home. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Economic reforms and health insurance in China.

PubMed

Du, Juan

2009-08-01

During the 1990s, Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and collective enterprises continually decreased coverage of public health insurance to their employees. This paper investigates this changing pattern of health insurance coverage in China using panel data from the China Nutrition and Health Survey (1991-2000). It is the first attempt in this literature that tries to identify precisely the effects of specific policies and reforms on health insurance coverage in the transitional period of China. The fixed effects linear model clustering at the province level is used for estimation, and results are compared to alternative models, including pooled OLS, random effects GLS model and fixed effects logit model. Strong empirical evidence is found that unemployment as a side effect of the Open Door Policy, and the deregulation of SOE and collective enterprises were the main causes for the decreasing trend. For example, urban areas that were highly affected by the Open Door Policy were associated with 17 percentage points decrease in the insurance coverage. Moreover, I found evidence that the gaps between SOE and non-SOE employees, collective and non-collective employees, urban and rural employees have considerably decreased during the ten years.
Short communication: Genetic relationships of milk coagulation properties with body condition score and linear type traits in Holstein-Friesian cows.

PubMed

Cassandro, M; Battagin, M; Penasa, M; De Marchi, M

2015-01-01

Milk coagulation properties (MCP) are gaining popularity among dairy cattle producers and the improvement of traits associated with MCP is expected to result in a benefit for the dairy industry, especially in countries with a long tradition in cheese production. The objectives of this study were to estimate genetic correlations of MCP with body condition score (BCS) and type traits using data from first-parity Italian Holstein-Friesian cattle. The data analyzed consisted of 18,460 MCP records from 4,036 cows with information on both BCS and conformation traits. The cows were daughters of 246 sires and the pedigree file included a total of 37,559 animals. Genetic relationships of MCP with BCS and type traits were estimated using bivariate animal models. The model for MCP included fixed effects of stage of lactation, and random effects of herd-test-date, cow permanent environment, additive genetic animal, and residual. Fixed factors considered in the model for BCS and type traits were herd-date of evaluation and interaction between age at scoring and stage of lactation of the cow, and random terms were additive genetic animal, cow permanent environment, and residual. Genetic relationships between MCP and BCS, and MCP and type traits were generally low and significant only in a few cases, suggesting that MCP can be selected for without detrimental effects on BCS and linear type traits. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Television and the behaviour of adolescents: does socio-economic status moderate the link?

PubMed

Chowhan, James; Stewart, Jennifer M

2007-10-01

This paper examines the relationship between adolescent behaviour, television viewing and family socio-economic status (SES) using the Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY). The effect of television viewing on adolescents' behaviour, ranging from pro-social to aggressive, and whether this effect is moderated by family socio-economic status is investigated. An adolescent fixed effects model is used to estimate the effect of television viewing on behaviour. The results indicate that the effect of television viewing varies between males and females. Family SES has a role in the effect of television on adolescents' behaviour, although the results do not distinguish between the two proposed hypotheses.

Do generous unemployment benefit programs reduce suicide rates? A state fixed-effect analysis covering 1968-2008.

PubMed

Cylus, Jonathan; Glymour, M Maria; Avendano, Mauricio

2014-07-01

The recent economic recession has led to increases in suicide, but whether US state unemployment insurance programs ameliorate this association has not been examined. Exploiting US state variations in the generosity of benefit programs between 1968 and 2008, we tested the hypothesis that more generous unemployment benefit programs reduce the impact of economic downturns on suicide. Using state linear fixed-effect models, we found a negative additive interaction between unemployment rates and benefits among the US working-age (20-64 years) population (β = -0.57, 95% confidence interval: -0.86, -0.27; P < 0.001). The finding of a negative additive interaction was robust across multiple model specifications. Our results suggest that the impact of unemployment rates on suicide is offset by the presence of generous state unemployment benefit programs, though estimated effects are small in magnitude. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Inequality, income, and poverty: comparative global evidence.

PubMed

Fosu, Augustin Kwasi

2010-01-01

Objectives. The study seeks to provide comparative global evidence on the role of income inequality, relative to income growth, in poverty reduction.Methods. An analysis-of-covariance model is estimated using a large global sample of 1980–2004 unbalanced panel data, with the headcount measure of poverty as the dependent variable, and the Gini coefficient and PPP-adjusted mean income as explanatory variables. Both random-effects and fixed-effects methods are employed in the estimation.Results. The responsiveness of poverty to income is a decreasing function of inequality, and the inequality elasticity of poverty is actually larger than the income elasticity of poverty. Furthermore, there is a large variation across regions (and countries) in the relative effects of inequality on poverty.Conclusion. Income distribution plays a more important role than might be traditionally acknowledged in poverty reduction, though this importance varies widely across regions and countries.
Impacts of Weather Shocks on Murder and Drug Cartel Violence in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miguel, E.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Gonzalez, F.; Baysan, C.

2014-12-01

We estimate impacts of weather shocks on several dimensions of violence in Mexico during 1990-2010, using disaggregated data at the state-by-month level. Controlling for location and time fixed effects, we show that higher than normal temperatures lead to: (i) higher total murder rates, (ii) higher rates of drug cartel related murders, and (iii) higher suicide rates. The effects of high temperatures on inter-personal violence (murders) and on inter-group violence (drug cartel related murders) are large, statistically significant and similar to those found in other recent settings. The use of panel data econometric methods to examine the effect of weather on suicide incidence is novel. We assess the role of economic channels (i.e., agricultural production affected by weather) and conclude that they cannot account for most of the estimated impacts, suggesting that other mechanisms, including psychological explanations, are likely to be important in this setting.
Easing the pain of an economic downturn: macroeconomic conditions and excessive alcohol consumption.

PubMed

Dávalos, María E; Fang, Hai; French, Michael T

2012-11-01

Individuals can react to financial stress in a variety of ways, such as reducing discretionary spending or engaging in risky behaviors. This article investigates the effect of changing macroeconomic conditions (measured by the unemployment rate in the state of residence) on one type of risky behavior: excessive alcohol consumption. Using unique and recent panel data from waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) and estimating fixed-effects models, we find that changes in the unemployment rate are positively related to changes in binge drinking, alcohol-involved driving, and alcohol abuse and/or dependence. Some differences are present among demographic groups, primarily in the magnitude of the estimated effects. These results contradict previous studies and suggest that problematic drinking may be an indirect and unfortunate consequence of an economic downturn. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Less money, more problems: How changes in disposable income affect child maltreatment.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Michael

2017-05-01

A number of research studies have documented an association between child maltreatment and family income. Yet, little is known about the specific types of economic shocks that affect child maltreatment rates. The paucity of information is troubling given that more than six million children are reported for maltreatment annually in the U.S. alone. This study examines whether an exogenous shock to families' disposable income, a change in the price of gasoline, predicts changes in child maltreatment. The findings of a fixed-effects regression show that increases in state-level gas prices are associated with increases in state-level child maltreatment referral rates, even after controlling for demographic and other economic variables. The results are robust to the manner of estimation; random-effects and mixed-effects regressions produce similar estimates. The findings suggest that fluctuations in the price of gas may have important consequences for children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
EASING THE PAIN OF AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN: MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND EXCESSIVE ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION

PubMed Central

DÁVALOS, MARÍA E.; FANG, HAI; FRENCH, MICHAEL T.

2012-01-01

SUMMARY Individuals can react to financial stress in a variety of ways, such as reducing discretionary spending or engaging in risky behaviors. This paper investigates the effect of changing macroeconomic conditions (measured by the unemployment rate in the state of residence) on one type of risky behavior: excessive alcohol consumption. Using unique and recent panel data from Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiological Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) and estimating fixed-effects models, we find that changes in the unemployment rate are positively related to changes in binge drinking, alcohol-involved driving, and alcohol abuse and/or dependence. Some differences are present among demographic groups, primarily in the magnitude of the estimated effects. These results contradict previous studies and suggest that problematic drinking may be an indirect and unfortunate consequence of an economic downturn. PMID:21913282
Robust organelle size extractions from elastic scattering measurements of single cells (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaday, Ashley E.; Draham, Robert; Berger, Andrew J.

2016-04-01

The goal of this project is to estimate non-nuclear organelle size distributions in single cells by measuring angular scattering patterns and fitting them with Mie theory. Simulations have indicated that the large relative size distribution of organelles (mean:width≈2) leads to unstable Mie fits unless scattering is collected at polar angles less than 20 degrees. Our optical system has therefore been modified to collect angles down to 10 degrees. Initial validations will be performed on polystyrene bead populations whose size distributions resemble those of cell organelles. Unlike with the narrow bead distributions that are often used for calibration, we expect to see an order-of-magnitude improvement in the stability of the size estimates as the minimum angle decreases from 20 to 10 degrees. Scattering patterns will then be acquired and analyzed from single cells (EMT6 mouse cancer cells), both fixed and live, at multiple time points. Fixed cells, with no changes in organelle sizes over time, will be measured to determine the fluctuation level in estimated size distribution due to measurement imperfections alone. Subsequent measurements on live cells will determine whether there is a higher level of fluctuation that could be attributed to dynamic changes in organelle size. Studies on unperturbed cells are precursors to ones in which the effects of exogenous agents are monitored over time.
Price Elasticity of Alcohol Demand in India.

PubMed

Kumar, Santosh

2017-05-01

Using a household survey conducted in 2014, this study estimates price elasticity of demand (PED) for beer, country liquor and spirits in India. Ordinary least-square models were used to estimate the responsiveness in alcohol demand due to price change. A large number of control variables were included to adjust for potential confounding in the model. Inter-district variation in alcohol consumption is adjusted for by including district fixed effects. Alcohol prices are negatively associated with demand for alcoholic beverages. The PED ranged from -0.14 for spirits to -0.46 for country liquor. Low level of education was positively associated with spirits consumption. The magnitude of elasticity varied by rural-urban, education and gender. Results indicate that a policy mix of price controls and awareness campaigns would be most effective in tackling the adverse effects of harmful drinking in India. The demand for beer, country liquor and spirits is negatively associated with its own price. The elasticity estimates ranged from -0.14 for spirits to -0.44 for country liquor. The elasticity estimates varied by rural-urban, gender and by education levels of the drinkers. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved
Detection probability of cliff-nesting raptors during helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft surveys in western Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booms, T.L.; Schempf, P.F.; McCaffery, B.J.; Lindberg, M.S.; Fuller, M.R.

2010-01-01

We conducted repeated aerial surveys for breeding cliff-nesting raptors on the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge (YDNWR) in western Alaska to estimate detection probabilities of Gyrfalcons (Falco rusticolus), Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus), and also Common Ravens (Corvus corax). Using the program PRESENCE, we modeled detection histories of each species based on single species occupancy modeling. We used different observers during four helicopter replicate surveys in the Kilbuck Mountains and five fixed-wing replicate surveys in the Ingakslugwat Hills near Bethel, AK. During helicopter surveys, Gyrfalcons had the highest detection probability estimate (p^;p^ 0.79; SE 0.05), followed by Golden Eagles (p^=0.68; SE 0.05), Common Ravens (p^=0.45; SE 0.17), and Rough-legged Hawks (p^=0.10; SE 0.11). Detection probabilities from fixed-wing aircraft in the Ingakslugwat Hills were similar to those from the helicopter in the Kilbuck Mountains for Gyrfalcons and Golden Eagles, but were higher for Common Ravens (p^=0.85; SE 0.06) and Rough-legged Hawks (p^=0.42; SE 0.07). Fixed-wing aircraft provided detection probability estimates and SEs in the Ingakslugwat Hills similar to or better than those from helicopter surveys in the Kilbucks and should be considered for future cliff-nesting raptor surveys where safe, low-altitude flight is possible. Overall, detection probability varied by observer experience and in some cases, by study area/aircraft type.
An optimally weighted estimator of the linear power spectrum disentangling the growth of density perturbations across galaxy surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorini, D.

2017-04-01

Measuring the clustering of galaxies from surveys allows us to estimate the power spectrum of matter density fluctuations, thus constraining cosmological models. This requires careful modelling of observational effects to avoid misinterpretation of data. In particular, signals coming from different distances encode information from different epochs. This is known as ``light-cone effect'' and is going to have a higher impact as upcoming galaxy surveys probe larger redshift ranges. Generalising the method by Feldman, Kaiser and Peacock (1994) [1], I define a minimum-variance estimator of the linear power spectrum at a fixed time, properly taking into account the light-cone effect. An analytic expression for the estimator is provided, and that is consistent with the findings of previous works in the literature. I test the method within the context of the Halofit model, assuming Planck 2014 cosmological parameters [2]. I show that the estimator presented recovers the fiducial linear power spectrum at present time within 5% accuracy up to k ~ 0.80 h Mpc-1 and within 10% up to k ~ 0.94 h Mpc-1, well into the non-linear regime of the growth of density perturbations. As such, the method could be useful in the analysis of the data from future large-scale surveys, like Euclid.
The Effect of Fiscal Decentralization on Under-five Mortality in Iran: A Panel Data Analysis.

PubMed

Samadi, Ali Hussein; Keshtkaran, Ali; Kavosi, Zahra; Vahedi, Sajad

2013-11-01

Fiscal Decentralization (FD) in many cases is encouraged as a strong means of improving the efficiency and equity in the provision of public goods, such as healthcare services. This issue has urged the researchers to experimentally examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization indicators and health outcomes. In this study we examine the effect of Fiscal Decentralization in Medical Universities (FDMU) and Fiscal Decentralization in Provincial Revenues (FDPR) on Under-Five Mortality Rate (U5M) in provinces of Iran over the period between 2007 and 2010. We employed panel data methods in this article. The results of the Pesaran CD test demonstrated that most of the variables used in the analysis were cross-sectionally dependent. The Hausman test results suggested that fixed-effects were more appropriate to estimate our model. We estimated the fixed-effect model by using Driscoll-Kraay standard errors as a remedy for cross-sectional dependency. According to the findings of this research, fiscal decentralization in the health sector had a negative impact on U5M. On the other hand, fiscal decentralization in provincial revenues had a positive impact on U5M. In addition, U5M had a negative association with the density of physicians, hospital beds, and provincial GDP per capita, but a positive relationship with Gini coefficient and unemployment. The findings of our study indicated that fiscal decentralization should be emphasized in the health sector. The results suggest the need for caution in the implementation of fiscal decentralization in provincial revenues.
Socio-Economic Factors Influencing on Total Fertility Rate in Iran: A Panel Data Analysis for the Period of 2002–2012

PubMed Central

Jafari, Hasan; Jaafaripooyan, Ebrahim; Vedadhir, Abou Ali; Foroushani, Abbas Rahimi; Ahadinejad, Bahman; Pourreza, Abolghasem

2016-01-01

Introduction Over the last few decades, total fertility rate (TFR) has followed a downward trend in Iran. The consequences of this trend from the perspectives of some are negative. Considering the macro-population policies in recent years, this study aimed to examine the effect of some macro socio-economic variables, including divorce, marriage, urbanization, and unemployment rate on TFR in Iran from 2002 to 2012. Methods This time series research was conducted in 2015 using the databases of the National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR) and the Statistical Center of Iran. The study population was the related data of provinces in the selected variables. The main methods used in the research were the common unit root test, Pedroni Cointegration test, redundant fixed effects tests, correlated random effects-Hausman test, and panel least squares of fixed effects. In order to determine the suitable model for estimating panel data, likelihood ratio and Huasman tests were done using Eviews software, and the fixed effects regression model was chosen as the dominant model. Results The results indicated that the divorce rate had a negative and significant effect on TFR (p < 0.05). A positive and significant relationship between marriage rate and TFR variables also was observed (p < 0.05). Urbanization rate (p = 0.24) and unemployment rate (p = 0.36) had no significant relationship with TFR. According to F statistic, significance of the overall model also was confirmed (p < 0.001). Conclusion Due to the lower effect of the studied factors on the reduction of TFR, it seems that variables other than the ones studied, as well as cultural factors and values, might be fundamental factors for this change in the country. PMID:27504172
Experimental design and efficient parameter estimation in preclinical pharmacokinetic studies.

PubMed

Ette, E I; Howie, C A; Kelman, A W; Whiting, B

1995-05-01

Monte Carlo simulation technique used to evaluate the effect of the arrangement of concentrations on the efficiency of estimation of population pharmacokinetic parameters in the preclinical setting is described. Although the simulations were restricted to the one compartment model with intravenous bolus input, they provide the basis of discussing some structural aspects involved in designing a destructive ("quantic") preclinical population pharmacokinetic study with a fixed sample size as is usually the case in such studies. The efficiency of parameter estimation obtained with sampling strategies based on the three and four time point designs were evaluated in terms of the percent prediction error, design number, individual and joint confidence intervals coverage for parameter estimates approaches, and correlation analysis. The data sets contained random terms for both inter- and residual intra-animal variability. The results showed that the typical population parameter estimates for clearance and volume were efficiently (accurately and precisely) estimated for both designs, while interanimal variability (the only random effect parameter that could be estimated) was inefficiently (inaccurately and imprecisely) estimated with most sampling schedules of the two designs. The exact location of the third and fourth time point for the three and four time point designs, respectively, was not critical to the efficiency of overall estimation of all population parameters of the model. However, some individual population pharmacokinetic parameters were sensitive to the location of these times.
How Big is Too Big for Hubs: Marginal Profitability in Hub-and-Spoke Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Leola B.; Schmidt, Stephen J.

1997-01-01

Increasing the scale of hub operations at major airports has led to concerns about congestion at excessively large hubs. In this paper, we estimate the marginal cost of adding spokes to an existing hub network. We observe entry/non-entry decisions on potential spokes from existing hubs, and estimate both a variable profit function for providing service in markets using that spoke as well as the fixed costs of providing service to the spoke. We let the fixed costs depend upon the scale of operations at the hub, and find the hub size at which spoke service costs are minimized.
Structural Estimation of Family Labor Supply with Taxes: Estimating a Continuous Hours Model Using a Direct Utility Specification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heim, Bradley T.

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a new method for estimating family labor supply in the presence of taxes. This method accounts for continuous hours choices, measurement error, unobserved heterogeneity in tastes for work, the nonlinear form of the tax code, and fixed costs of work in one comprehensive specification. Estimated on data from the 2001 PSID, the…
Application of mapped plots for single-owner forest surveys

Treesearch

Paul C. Van Deusen; Francis Roesch

2009-01-01

Mapped plots are used for the nation forest inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service. Mapped plots are also useful foro single ownership inventoires. Mapped plots can handle boundary overlap and can aprovide less variable estimates for specified forest conditions. Mapping is a good fit for fixed plot inventories where the fixed area plot is used for both mapping...
Temporal parameter change of human postural control ability during upright swing using recursive least square method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, Akifumi; Ishida, Mizuri; Sagawa, Koichi

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study is to derive quantitative assessment indicators of the human postural control ability. An inverted pendulum is applied to standing human body and is controlled by ankle joint torque according to PD control method in sagittal plane. Torque control parameters (KP: proportional gain, KD: derivative gain) and pole placements of postural control system are estimated with time from inclination angle variation using fixed trace method as recursive least square method. Eight young healthy volunteers are participated in the experiment, in which volunteers are asked to incline forward as far as and as fast as possible 10 times over 10 [s] stationary intervals with their neck joint, hip joint and knee joint fixed, and then return to initial upright posture. The inclination angle is measured by an optical motion capture system. Three conditions are introduced to simulate unstable standing posture; 1) eyes-opened posture for healthy condition, 2) eyes-closed posture for visual impaired and 3) one-legged posture for lower-extremity muscle weakness. The estimated parameters Kp, KD and pole placements are applied to multiple comparison test among all stability conditions. The test results indicate that Kp, KD and real pole reflect effect of lower-extremity muscle weakness and KD also represents effect of visual impairment. It is suggested that the proposed method is valid for quantitative assessment of standing postural control ability.
Role of a plausible nuisance contributor in the declining obesity-mortality risks over time.

PubMed

Mehta, Tapan; Pajewski, Nicholas M; Keith, Scott W; Fontaine, Kevin; Allison, David B

2016-12-15

Recent analyses of epidemiological data including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) have suggested that the harmful effects of obesity may have decreased over calendar time. The shifting BMI distribution over time coupled with the application of fixed broad BMI categories in these analyses could be a plausible "nuisance contributor" to this observed change in the obesity-associated mortality over calendar time. To evaluate the extent to which observed temporal changes in the obesity-mortality association may be due to a shifting population distribution for body mass index (BMI), coupled with analyses based on static, broad BMI categories. Simulations were conducted using data from NHANES I and III linked with mortality data. Data from NHANES I were used to fit a "true" model treating BMI as a continuous variable. Coefficients estimated from this model were used to simulate mortality for participants in NHANES III. Hence, the population-level association between BMI and mortality in NHANES III was fixed to be identical to the association estimated in NHANES I. Hazard ratios (HRs) for obesity categories based on BMI for NHANES III with simulated mortality data were compared to the corresponding estimated HRs from NHANES I. Change in hazard ratios for simulated data in NHANES III compared to observed estimates from NHANES I. On average, hazard ratios for NHANES III based on simulated mortality data were 29.3% lower than the estimates from NHANES I using observed mortality follow-up. This reduction accounted for roughly three-fourths of the apparent decrease in the obesity-mortality association observed in a previous analysis of these data. Some of the apparent diminution of the association between obesity and mortality may be an artifact of treating BMI as a categorical variable. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Quaternion-Based Unscented Kalman Filter for Accurate Indoor Heading Estimation Using Wearable Multi-Sensor System

PubMed Central

Yuan, Xuebing; Yu, Shuai; Zhang, Shengzhi; Wang, Guoping; Liu, Sheng

2015-01-01

Inertial navigation based on micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) inertial measurement units (IMUs) has attracted numerous researchers due to its high reliability and independence. The heading estimation, as one of the most important parts of inertial navigation, has been a research focus in this field. Heading estimation using magnetometers is perturbed by magnetic disturbances, such as indoor concrete structures and electronic equipment. The MEMS gyroscope is also used for heading estimation. However, the accuracy of gyroscope is unreliable with time. In this paper, a wearable multi-sensor system has been designed to obtain the high-accuracy indoor heading estimation, according to a quaternion-based unscented Kalman filter (UKF) algorithm. The proposed multi-sensor system including one three-axis accelerometer, three single-axis gyroscopes, one three-axis magnetometer and one microprocessor minimizes the size and cost. The wearable multi-sensor system was fixed on waist of pedestrian and the quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for heading estimation experiments in our college building. The results show that the mean heading estimation errors are less 10° and 5° to multi-sensor system fixed on waist of pedestrian and the quadrotor UAV, respectively, compared to the reference path. PMID:25961384
Examination of universal purchase programs as a driver of vaccine uptake among US States, 1995-2014.

PubMed

Mulligan, Karen; Snider, Julia Thornton; Arthur, Phyllis; Frank, Gregory; Tebeka, Mahlet; Walker, Amy; Abrevaya, Jason

2018-06-01

Immunization against numerous potentially life-threatening illnesses has been a great public health achievement. In the United States, the Vaccines for Children (VFC) program has provided vaccines to uninsured and underinsured children since the early 1990s, increasing vaccination rates. In recent years, some states have adopted Universal Purchase (UP) programs with the stated aim of further increasing vaccination rates. Under UP programs, states also purchase vaccines for privately-insured children at federally-contracted VFC prices and bill private health insurers for the vaccines through assessments. In this study, we estimated the effect of UP adoption in a state on children's vaccination rates using state-level and individual-level data from the 1995-2014 National Immunization Survey. For the state-level analysis, we performed ordinary least squares regression to estimate the state's vaccination rate as a function of whether the state had UP in the given year, state demographic characteristics, other vaccination policies, state fixed effects, and a time trend. For the individual analysis, we performed logistic regression to estimate a child's likelihood of being vaccinated as a function of whether the state had UP in the given year, the child's demographic characteristics, state characteristics and vaccine policies, state fixed effects, and a time trend. We performed separate regressions for each of nine recommended vaccines, as well as composite measures on whether a child was up-to-date on all required vaccines. In the both the state-level and individual-level analyses, we found UP had no significant (p < 0.10) effect on any of the vaccines or composite measures in our base case specifications. Results were similar in alternative specifications. We hypothesize that UP was ineffective in increasing vaccination rates. Policymakers seeking to increase vaccination rates would do well to consider other policies such as addressing provider practice issues and vaccine hesitancy. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

School Violent Crime and Academic Achievement in Chicago*

PubMed Central

Burdick-Will, Julia

2013-01-01

Educational outcomes vary dramatically across schools in the United States. Many under-performing schools, especially in Chicago, also deal with high levels of violent crime on school grounds. Exposure to this type of frequent violence may be an important factor shaping already disadvantaged students’ educational experiences. However, estimating the effect of school violence on learning is difficult due to potential selection bias and the confounding of other school-level problems. Using detailed crime data from the Chicago Police Department, complete administrative records from the Chicago Public Schools, and school climate surveys conducted by the Consortium on Chicago School Research (2002–10), this study exploits variation in violent crime rates within schools over time to estimate its effect on academic achievement. School and neighborhood fixed-effects models show that violent crime rates have a negative effect on test scores, but not on grades. This effect is more likely related to direct reductions in learning, through cognitive stress and classroom disruptions, than changes in perceived safety, general school climate, or discipline practices. PMID:24259755
School Violent Crime and Academic Achievement in Chicago.

PubMed

Burdick-Will, Julia

2013-10-01

Educational outcomes vary dramatically across schools in the United States. Many under-performing schools, especially in Chicago, also deal with high levels of violent crime on school grounds. Exposure to this type of frequent violence may be an important factor shaping already disadvantaged students' educational experiences. However, estimating the effect of school violence on learning is difficult due to potential selection bias and the confounding of other school-level problems. Using detailed crime data from the Chicago Police Department, complete administrative records from the Chicago Public Schools, and school climate surveys conducted by the Consortium on Chicago School Research (2002-10), this study exploits variation in violent crime rates within schools over time to estimate its effect on academic achievement. School and neighborhood fixed-effects models show that violent crime rates have a negative effect on test scores, but not on grades. This effect is more likely related to direct reductions in learning, through cognitive stress and classroom disruptions, than changes in perceived safety, general school climate, or discipline practices.
Instrumental Variable Analysis with a Nonlinear Exposure–Outcome Relationship

PubMed Central

Davies, Neil M.; Thompson, Simon G.

2014-01-01

Background: Instrumental variable methods can estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome using observational data. Many instrumental variable methods assume that the exposure–outcome relation is linear, but in practice this assumption is often in doubt, or perhaps the shape of the relation is a target for investigation. We investigate this issue in the context of Mendelian randomization, the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables. Methods: Using simulations, we demonstrate the performance of a simple linear instrumental variable method when the true shape of the exposure–outcome relation is not linear. We also present a novel method for estimating the effect of the exposure on the outcome within strata of the exposure distribution. This enables the estimation of localized average causal effects within quantile groups of the exposure or as a continuous function of the exposure using a sliding window approach. Results: Our simulations suggest that linear instrumental variable estimates approximate a population-averaged causal effect. This is the average difference in the outcome if the exposure for every individual in the population is increased by a fixed amount. Estimates of localized average causal effects reveal the shape of the exposure–outcome relation for a variety of models. These methods are used to investigate the relations between body mass index and a range of cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions: Nonlinear exposure–outcome relations should not be a barrier to instrumental variable analyses. When the exposure–outcome relation is not linear, either a population-averaged causal effect or the shape of the exposure–outcome relation can be estimated. PMID:25166881
Difference between age-related macular degeneration and polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy in the hereditary contribution of the A69S variant of the age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2 gene (ARMS2).

PubMed

Yanagisawa, Suiho; Kondo, Naoshi; Miki, Akiko; Matsumiya, Wataru; Kusuhara, Sentaro; Tsukahara, Yasutomo; Honda, Shigeru; Negi, Akira

2011-01-01

To investigate whether the A69S variant of the age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2 gene (ARMS2) has a different hereditary contribution in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (PCV). We initially conducted a comparative genetic analysis of neovascular AMD and PCV, genotyping the ARMS2 A69S variant in 181 subjects with neovascular AMD, 198 subjects with PCV, and 203 controls in a Japanese population. Genotyping was conducted using TaqMan technology. Results were then integrated into a meta-analysis of previous studies representing an assessment of the association between the ARMS2 A69S variant and neovascular AMD and/or PCV, comprising a total of 3,828 subjects of Asian descent. The Q-statistic test was used to assess between-study heterogeneity. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a fixed effects model. The genetic effect of the A69S variant was stronger in neovascular AMD (allelic summary OR=3.09 [95% CI, 2.71-3.51], fixed effects p<0.001) than in PCV (allelic summary OR=2.13 [95% CI, 1.91-2.38], fixed effects p<0.001). The pooled risk allele frequency was significantly higher in neovascular AMD (64.7%) than in PCV (55.6%). The population attributable risks for the variant allele were estimated to be 43.9% (95% CI, 39.0%-48.4%) and 29.7% (95% CI, 25.4%-34.0%) for neovascular AMD and PCV, respectively. No significant between-study heterogeneity was observed in any statistical analysis in this meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis provides substantial evidence that the ARMS2 A69S variant confers a significantly higher risk of neovascular AMD than PCV. Furthermore, there is compelling evidence that the risk attributable to the A69S variant differs between geographic atrophy and neovascular AMD. Together with defining the molecular basis of susceptibility, understanding the relationships between this genomic region and disease subtypes will yield important insights, elucidating the biologic architecture of this phenotypically heterogeneous disorder.
Infrared fix pattern noise reduction method based on Shearlet Transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Shenghui; Zhou, Huixin; Zhao, Dong; Cheng, Kuanhong; Qian, Kun; Qin, Hanlin

2018-06-01

The non-uniformity correction (NUC) is an effective way to reduce fix pattern noise (FPN) and improve infrared image quality. The temporal high-pass NUC method is a kind of practical NUC method because of its simple implementation. However, traditional temporal high-pass NUC methods rely deeply on the scene motion and suffer image ghosting and blurring. Thus, this paper proposes an improved NUC method based on Shearlet Transform (ST). First, the raw infrared image is decomposed into multiscale and multi-orientation subbands by ST and the FPN component mainly exists in some certain high-frequency subbands. Then, high-frequency subbands are processed by the temporal filter to extract the FPN due to its low-frequency characteristics. Besides, each subband has a confidence parameter to determine the degree of FPN, which is estimated by the variance of subbands adaptively. At last, the process of NUC is achieved by subtracting the estimated FPN component from the original subbands and the corrected infrared image can be obtained by the inverse ST. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated with real and synthetic infrared image sequences thoroughly. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method can reduce heavily FPN with less roughness and RMSE.
Covariance functions for body weight from birth to maturity in Nellore cows.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Mercadante, M E Z; Forni, S; Lôbo, R B; Albuquerque, L G

2010-03-01

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance functions using random regression models on Legendre polynomials for the analysis of repeated measures of BW from birth to adult age. A total of 82,064 records from 8,145 females were analyzed. Different models were compared. The models included additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random terms. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of animal age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariables. Eight models with polynomials of third to sixth order were used to describe additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. Residual effects were modeled using 1 (i.e., assuming homogeneity of variances across all ages) or 5 age classes. The model with 5 classes was the best to describe the trajectory of residuals along the growth curve. The model including fourth- and sixth-order polynomials for additive direct and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, and third-order polynomials for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects were the best. Estimates of (co)variance obtained with the multi-trait and random regression models were similar. Direct heritability estimates obtained with the random regression models followed a trend similar to that obtained with the multi-trait model. The largest estimates of maternal heritability were those of BW taken close to 240 d of age. In general, estimates of correlation between BW from birth to 8 yr of age decreased with increasing distance between ages.
Estimating acreage by double sampling using LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pont, F.; Horwitz, H.; Kauth, R. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Double sampling techniques employing LANDSAT data for estimating the acreage of corn and soybeans was investigated and evaluated. The evaluation was based on estimated costs and correlations between two existing procedures having differing cost/variance characteristics, and included consideration of their individual merits when coupled with a fictional 'perfect' procedure of zero bias and variance. Two features of the analysis are: (1) the simultaneous estimation of two or more crops; and (2) the imposition of linear cost constraints among two or more types of resource. A reasonably realistic operational scenario was postulated. The costs were estimated from current experience with the measurement procedures involved, and the correlations were estimated from a set of 39 LACIE-type sample segments located in the U.S. Corn Belt. For a fixed variance of the estimate, double sampling with the two existing LANDSAT measurement procedures can result in a 25% or 50% cost reduction. Double sampling which included the fictional perfect procedure results in a more cost effective combination when it is used with the lower cost/higher variance representative of the existing procedures.
The Effect of Minimum Wages on Adolescent Fertility: A Nationwide Analysis.

PubMed

Bullinger, Lindsey Rose

2017-03-01

To investigate the effect of minimum wage laws on adolescent birth rates in the United States. I used a difference-in-differences approach and vital statistics data measured quarterly at the state level from 2003 to 2014. All models included state covariates, state and quarter-year fixed effects, and state-specific quarter-year nonlinear time trends, which provided plausibly causal estimates of the effect of minimum wage on adolescent birth rates. A $1 increase in minimum wage reduces adolescent birth rates by about 2%. The effects are driven by non-Hispanic White and Hispanic adolescents. Nationwide, increasing minimum wages by $1 would likely result in roughly 5000 fewer adolescent births annually.
Alcohol and liver cirrhosis mortality in the United States: comparison of methods for the analyses of time-series panel data models.

PubMed

Ye, Yu; Kerr, William C

2011-01-01

To explore various model specifications in estimating relationships between liver cirrhosis mortality rates and per capita alcohol consumption in aggregate-level cross-section time-series data. Using a series of liver cirrhosis mortality rates from 1950 to 2002 for 47 U.S. states, the effects of alcohol consumption were estimated from pooled autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and 4 types of panel data models: generalized estimating equation, generalized least square, fixed effect, and multilevel models. Various specifications of error term structure under each type of model were also examined. Different approaches controlling for time trends and for using concurrent or accumulated consumption as predictors were also evaluated. When cirrhosis mortality was predicted by total alcohol, highly consistent estimates were found between ARIMA and panel data analyses, with an average overall effect of 0.07 to 0.09. Less consistent estimates were derived using spirits, beer, and wine consumption as predictors. When multiple geographic time series are combined as panel data, none of existent models could accommodate all sources of heterogeneity such that any type of panel model must employ some form of generalization. Different types of panel data models should thus be estimated to examine the robustness of findings. We also suggest cautious interpretation when beverage-specific volumes are used as predictors. Copyright © 2010 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.
Adaptive local linear regression with application to printer color management.

PubMed

Gupta, Maya R; Garcia, Eric K; Chin, Erika

2008-06-01

Local learning methods, such as local linear regression and nearest neighbor classifiers, base estimates on nearby training samples, neighbors. Usually, the number of neighbors used in estimation is fixed to be a global "optimal" value, chosen by cross validation. This paper proposes adapting the number of neighbors used for estimation to the local geometry of the data, without need for cross validation. The term enclosing neighborhood is introduced to describe a set of neighbors whose convex hull contains the test point when possible. It is proven that enclosing neighborhoods yield bounded estimation variance under some assumptions. Three such enclosing neighborhood definitions are presented: natural neighbors, natural neighbors inclusive, and enclosing k-NN. The effectiveness of these neighborhood definitions with local linear regression is tested for estimating lookup tables for color management. Significant improvements in error metrics are shown, indicating that enclosing neighborhoods may be a promising adaptive neighborhood definition for other local learning tasks as well, depending on the density of training samples.
Functional renormalization group approach to the Yang-Lee edge singularity

DOE PAGES

An, X.; Mesterházy, D.; Stephanov, M. A.

2016-07-08

Here, we determine the scaling properties of the Yang-Lee edge singularity as described by a one-component scalar field theory with imaginary cubic coupling, using the nonperturbative functional renormalization group in 3 ≤ d ≤ 6 Euclidean dimensions. We find very good agreement with high-temperature series data in d = 3 dimensions and compare our results to recent estimates of critical exponents obtained with the four-loop ϵ = 6 - d expansion and the conformal bootstrap. The relevance of operator insertions at the corresponding fixed point of the RG β functions is discussed and we estimate the error associated with O(∂more » 4) truncations of the scale-dependent effective action.« less
Functional renormalization group approach to the Yang-Lee edge singularity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

An, X.; Mesterházy, D.; Stephanov, M. A.

Here, we determine the scaling properties of the Yang-Lee edge singularity as described by a one-component scalar field theory with imaginary cubic coupling, using the nonperturbative functional renormalization group in 3 ≤ d ≤ 6 Euclidean dimensions. We find very good agreement with high-temperature series data in d = 3 dimensions and compare our results to recent estimates of critical exponents obtained with the four-loop ϵ = 6 - d expansion and the conformal bootstrap. The relevance of operator insertions at the corresponding fixed point of the RG β functions is discussed and we estimate the error associated with O(∂more » 4) truncations of the scale-dependent effective action.« less
Plant Disease Severity Assessment-How Rater Bias, Assessment Method, and Experimental Design Affect Hypothesis Testing and Resource Use Efficiency.

PubMed

Chiang, Kuo-Szu; Bock, Clive H; Lee, I-Hsuan; El Jarroudi, Moussa; Delfosse, Philippe

2016-12-01

The effect of rater bias and assessment method on hypothesis testing was studied for representative experimental designs for plant disease assessment using balanced and unbalanced data sets. Data sets with the same number of replicate estimates for each of two treatments are termed "balanced" and those with unequal numbers of replicate estimates are termed "unbalanced". The three assessment methods considered were nearest percent estimates (NPEs), an amended 10% incremental scale, and the Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) scale. Estimates of severity of Septoria leaf blotch on leaves of winter wheat were used to develop distributions for a simulation model. The experimental designs are presented here in the context of simulation experiments which consider the optimal design for the number of specimens (individual units sampled) and the number of replicate estimates per specimen for a fixed total number of observations (total sample size for the treatments being compared). The criterion used to gauge each method was the power of the hypothesis test. As expected, at a given fixed number of observations, the balanced experimental designs invariably resulted in a higher power compared with the unbalanced designs at different disease severity means, mean differences, and variances. Based on these results, with unbiased estimates using NPE, the recommended number of replicate estimates taken per specimen is 2 (from a sample of specimens of at least 30), because this conserves resources. Furthermore, for biased estimates, an apparent difference in the power of the hypothesis test was observed between assessment methods and between experimental designs. Results indicated that, regardless of experimental design or rater bias, an amended 10% incremental scale has slightly less power compared with NPEs, and that the H-B scale is more likely than the others to cause a type II error. These results suggest that choice of assessment method, optimizing sample number and number of replicate estimates, and using a balanced experimental design are important criteria to consider to maximize the power of hypothesis tests for comparing treatments using disease severity estimates.
Detection of hepatitis "C" virus in formalin-fixed liver tissue by nested polymerase chain reaction.

PubMed

Sallie, R; Rayner, A; Portmann, B; Eddleston, A L; Williams, R

1992-08-01

Interpretation of antibody to hepatitis C virus (HCV) in patients with liver disease is difficult due to false-positive reactivity in some conditions. To evaluate the feasibility of HCV in archival material, HCV was sought in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded liver biopsy specimens. Nested polymerase chain reaction was used to detect hepatitis C virus in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded liver biopsy specimens after total RNA was extracted from tissue by proteinase K digestion and phenol/chloroform purification. The relative efficiency of amplification of HCV RNA from formalin-fixed material was estimated semiquantitatively by serial dilution of cDNA synthesised from RNA extracted from fresh and formalin-fixed sections from the same liver. Although HCV RNA could be detected in formalin-fixed liver tissue by nested PCR in 5/5 cases in which HCV was detected in serum, amplification was approximately 5-fold less efficient than when HCV was amplified from fresh tissue. Nevertheless, nested PCR of HCV from formalin-fixed liver tissue represents a useful technique in addressing some important questions related to the pathogenesis of liver disease.
Uncertainties in the Item Parameter Estimates and Robust Automated Test Assembly

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Matteucci, Mariagiulia; de Jong, Martijn G.

2013-01-01

Item response theory parameters have to be estimated, and because of the estimation process, they do have uncertainty in them. In most large-scale testing programs, the parameters are stored in item banks, and automated test assembly algorithms are applied to assemble operational test forms. These algorithms treat item parameters as fixed values,…
Estimation of genetic parameters related to eggshell strength using random regression models.

PubMed

Guo, J; Ma, M; Qu, L; Shen, M; Dou, T; Wang, K

2015-01-01

This study examined the changes in eggshell strength and the genetic parameters related to this trait throughout a hen's laying life using random regression. The data were collected from a crossbred population between 2011 and 2014, where the eggshell strength was determined repeatedly for 2260 hens. Using random regression models (RRMs), several Legendre polynomials were employed to estimate the fixed, direct genetic and permanent environment effects. The residual effects were treated as independently distributed with heterogeneous variance for each test week. The direct genetic variance was included with second-order Legendre polynomials and the permanent environment with third-order Legendre polynomials. The heritability of eggshell strength ranged from 0.26 to 0.43, the repeatability ranged between 0.47 and 0.69, and the estimated genetic correlations between test weeks was high at > 0.67. The first eigenvalue of the genetic covariance matrix accounted for about 97% of the sum of all the eigenvalues. The flexibility and statistical power of RRM suggest that this model could be an effective method to improve eggshell quality and to reduce losses due to cracked eggs in a breeding plan.
Transit forecasting accuracy : ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates, final research report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

In 1992, Pickrell published a seminal piece examining the accuracy of ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates for fixed-guideway transit systems in the US. His research created heated discussions in the transit industry regarding the ability o...
Assessing Treatment Effects of Inhaled Corticosteroids on Medical Expenses and Exacerbations among COPD Patients: Longitudinal Analysis of Managed Care Claims

PubMed Central

Akazawa, Manabu; Stearns, Sally C; Biddle, Andrea K

2008-01-01

Objective To assess costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) augmenting bronchodilator treatment for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Data Sources Claims between 1997 and 2005 from a large managed care database. Study Design Individual-level, fixed-effects regression models estimated the effects of initiating ICS on medical expenses and likelihood of severe exacerbation. Bootstrapping provided estimates of the incremental cost per severe exacerbation avoided. Data Extraction Methods COPD patients aged 40 or older with ≥15 months of continuous eligibility were identified. Monthly observations for 1 year before and up to 2 years following initiation of bronchodilators were constructed. Principal Findings ICS treatment reduced monthly risk of severe exacerbation by 25 percent. Total costs with ICS increased for 16 months, but declined thereafter. ICS use was cost saving 46 percent of the time, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $2,973 per exacerbation avoided; for patients ≥50 years old, ICS was cost saving 57 percent of time. Conclusions ICS treatment reduces exacerbations, with an increase in total costs initially for the full sample. Compared with younger patients with COPD, patients aged 50 or older have reduced costs and improved outcomes. The estimated cost per severe exacerbation avoided, however, may be high for either group because of uncertainty as reflected by the large standard errors of the parameter estimates. PMID:18671750
Sparse 4D TomoSAR imaging in the presence of non-linear deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khwaja, Ahmed Shaharyar; ćetin, Müjdat

2018-04-01

In this paper, we present a sparse four-dimensional tomographic synthetic aperture radar (4D TomoSAR) imaging scheme that can estimate elevation and linear as well as non-linear seasonal deformation rates of scatterers using the interferometric phase. Unlike existing sparse processing techniques that use fixed dictionaries based on a linear deformation model, we use a variable dictionary for the non-linear deformation in the form of seasonal sinusoidal deformation, in addition to the fixed dictionary for the linear deformation. We estimate the amplitude of the sinusoidal deformation using an optimization method and create the variable dictionary using the estimated amplitude. We show preliminary results using simulated data that demonstrate the soundness of our proposed technique for sparse 4D TomoSAR imaging in the presence of non-linear deformation.
Fixed but not autoadjusting positive airway pressure attenuates the time-dependent decline in glomerular filtration rate in patients with obstructive sleep apnea.

PubMed

Marrone, Oreste; Cibella, Fabio; Pépin, Jean-Louis; Grote, Ludger; Verbraecken, Johan; Saaresranta, Tarja; Kvamme, John A; Basoglu, Ozen K; Lombardi, Carolina; McNicholas, Walter T; Hedner, Jan; Bonsignore, Maria R

2018-04-23

The impact of treating obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) on renal function decline is controversial. Previous studies usually included small samples and did not consider specific effects of different continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) modalities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the respective influence of fixed and auto-adjusting CPAP modes on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in a large sample of patients derived from the prospective European Sleep Apnea Database (ESADA) cohort. In patients of the ESADA, eGFR before and after follow-up was calculated using the CKD-EPI equation. Three study groups were investigated, namely untreated patients (n=144), patients receiving fixed continuous positive airway pressure (fCPAP) (n=1,178), and patients on auto-adjusting CPAP (APAP) (n=485). In the whole sample, eGFR decreased over time. The rate of eGFR decline was significantly higher in the subgroup with eGFR above median [91.42 ml/min/1.73m 2 ] at baseline (p<0.0001 for effect of baseline eGFR). This decline was attenuated or absent (p<0.0001 for effect of treatment) in the subgroup of OSA treated by fCPAP. A follow-up duration exceeding the median (541 days), was associated with eGFR decline in the untreated and APAP groups, but not in the fCPAP group (p <0.0001 by two-way ANOVA for interaction between treatment and follow-up length). In multiple regression analysis, eGFR decline was accentuated by advanced age, female gender, cardiac failure, higher baseline eGFR and longer follow-up duration, while there was a protective effect of fCPAP. Fixed CPAP but not APAP, may prevent eGFR decline in OSA. Copyright © 2018 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regression calibration for models with two predictor variables measured with error and their interaction, using instrumental variables and longitudinal data.

PubMed

Strand, Matthew; Sillau, Stefan; Grunwald, Gary K; Rabinovitch, Nathan

2014-02-10

Regression calibration provides a way to obtain unbiased estimators of fixed effects in regression models when one or more predictors are measured with error. Recent development of measurement error methods has focused on models that include interaction terms between measured-with-error predictors, and separately, methods for estimation in models that account for correlated data. In this work, we derive explicit and novel forms of regression calibration estimators and associated asymptotic variances for longitudinal models that include interaction terms, when data from instrumental and unbiased surrogate variables are available but not the actual predictors of interest. The longitudinal data are fit using linear mixed models that contain random intercepts and account for serial correlation and unequally spaced observations. The motivating application involves a longitudinal study of exposure to two pollutants (predictors) - outdoor fine particulate matter and cigarette smoke - and their association in interactive form with levels of a biomarker of inflammation, leukotriene E4 (LTE 4 , outcome) in asthmatic children. Because the exposure concentrations could not be directly observed, we used measurements from a fixed outdoor monitor and urinary cotinine concentrations as instrumental variables, and we used concentrations of fine ambient particulate matter and cigarette smoke measured with error by personal monitors as unbiased surrogate variables. We applied the derived regression calibration methods to estimate coefficients of the unobserved predictors and their interaction, allowing for direct comparison of toxicity of the different pollutants. We used simulations to verify accuracy of inferential methods based on asymptotic theory. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A meta-analysis of Th2 pathway genetic variants and risk for allergic rhinitis.

PubMed

Bunyavanich, Supinda; Shargorodsky, Josef; Celedón, Juan C

2011-06-01

There is a significant genetic contribution to allergic rhinitis (AR). Genetic association studies for AR have been performed, but varying results make it challenging to decipher the overall potential effect of specific variants. The Th2 pathway plays an important role in the immunological development of AR. We performed meta-analyses of genetic association studies of variants in Th2 pathway genes and AR. PubMed and Phenopedia were searched by double extraction for original studies on Th2 pathway-related genetic polymorphisms and their associations with AR. A meta-analysis was conducted on each genetic polymorphism with data meeting our predetermined selection criteria. Analyses were performed using both fixed and random effects models, with stratification by age group, ethnicity, and AR definition where appropriate. Heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed. Six independent studies analyzing three candidate polymorphisms and involving a total of 1596 cases and 2892 controls met our inclusion criteria. Overall, the A allele of IL13 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs20541 was associated with increased odds of AR (estimated OR=1.2; 95% CI 1.1-1.3, p-value 0.004 in fixed effects model, 95% CI 1.0-1.5, p-value 0.056 in random effects model). The A allele of rs20541 was associated with increased odds of AR in mixed age groups using both fixed effects and random effects modeling. IL13 SNP rs1800925 and IL4R SNP 1801275 did not demonstrate overall associations with AR. We conclude that there is evidence for an overall association between IL13 SNP rs20541 and increased risk of AR, especially in mixed-age populations. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.
Economic evaluation of single-tooth replacement: dental implant versus fixed partial denture.

PubMed

Kim, Younhee; Park, Joo-Yeon; Park, Sun-Young; Oh, Sung-Hee; Jung, YeaJi; Kim, Ji-Min; Yoo, Soo-Yeon; Kim, Seong-Kyun

2014-01-01

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective of a dental implant compared with a three-unit tooth-supported fixed partial denture (FPD) for the replacement of a single tooth in 2010. A decision tree was developed to estimate cost-effectiveness over a 10-year period. The survival rates of single-tooth implants and FPDs were extracted from a meta-analysis of single-arm studies. Medical costs included initial treatment costs, maintenance costs, and costs to treat complications. Patient surveys were used to obtain the costs of the initial single-tooth implant or FPD. Maintenance costs and costs to treat complications were based on surveys of seven clinical experts at dental clinics or hospitals. Transportation costs were calculated based on the number of visits for implant or FPD treatment. Patient time costs were estimated using the number of visits and time required, hourly wage, and employment rate. Future costs were discounted by 5% to convert to present values. The results of a 10-year period model showed that a single dental implant cost US $261 (clinic) to $342 (hospital) more than an FPD and had an average survival rate that was 10.4% higher. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $2,514 in a clinic and $3,290 in a hospital for a prosthesis in situ for 10 years. The sensitivity analysis showed that initial treatment costs and survival rate influenced the cost-effectiveness. If the cost of an implant were reduced to 80% of the current cost, the implant would become the dominant intervention. Although the level of evidence for effectiveness is low, and some aspects of single-tooth implants or FPDs, such as satisfaction, were not considered, this study will help patients requiring single-tooth replacement to choose the best treatment option.
[Changes in prices of taxed sugar-sweetened beverages and nonessential energy dense food in rural and semi-rural areas in Mexico].

PubMed

Colchero, M Arantxa; Zavala, J Alejandro; Batis, Carolina; Shamah-Levy, Teresa; Rivera-Dommarco, Juan A

2017-01-01

To estimate changes in prices associated with the implementation of the tax to sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) and to nonessential energy dense food in 2014. Price data were collected in rural and semi-rural areas in December 2013, and April and December 2014. Fixed effects models were used to estimate changes in prices of beverages and nonessential energy dense food, stratified by region, retailer and package size. The SSB tax did not pass completely through prices: prices increased on average 0.73 pesos per liter. For nonessential energy dense food, the tax passed completely or was overshifted for cookies, cereal bars and cereal boxes. The potential effect of the taxes on consumption could be attenuated in rural areas as the pass through prices was incomplete.
Adolescent mental health and earnings inequalities in adulthood: evidence from the Young-HUNT Study.

PubMed

Evensen, Miriam; Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde; Melkevik, Ole; Reneflot, Anne; Mykletun, Arnstein

2017-02-01

Previous studies have shown that adolescent mental health problems are associated with lower employment probabilities and risk of unemployment. The evidence on how earnings are affected is much weaker, and few have addressed whether any association reflects unobserved characteristics and whether the consequences of mental health problems vary across the earnings distribution. A population-based Norwegian health survey linked to administrative registry data (N=7885) was used to estimate how adolescents' mental health problems (separate indicators of internalising, conduct, and attention problems and total sum scores) affect earnings (≥30 years) in young adulthood. We used linear regression with fixed-effects models comparing either students within schools or siblings within families. Unconditional quantile regressions were used to explore differentials across the earnings distribution. Mental health problems in adolescence reduce average earnings in adulthood, and associations are robust to control for observed family background and school fixed effects. For some, but not all mental health problems, associations are also robust in sibling fixed-effects models, where all stable family factors are controlled. Further, we found much larger earnings loss below the 25th centile. Adolescent mental health problems reduce adult earnings, especially among individuals in the lower tail of the earnings distribution. Preventing mental health problems in adolescence may increase future earnings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Genetic analysis of longitudinal measurements of performance traits in selection lines for residual feed intake in Yorkshire swine.

PubMed

Cai, W; Kaiser, M S; Dekkers, J C M

2011-05-01

A 5-generation selection experiment in Yorkshire pigs for feed efficiency consists of a line selected for low residual feed intake (LRFI) and a random control line (CTRL). The objectives of this study were to use random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for daily feed intake (DFI), BW, backfat (BF), and loin muscle area (LMA) along the growth trajectory and to evaluate the effect of LRFI selection on genetic curves for DFI and BW. An additional objective was to compare random regression models using polynomials (RRP) and spline functions (RRS). Data from approximately 3 to 8 mo of age on 586 boars and 495 gilts across 5 generations were used. The average number of measurements was 85, 14, 5, and 5 for DFI, BW, BF, and LMA. The RRP models for these 4 traits were fitted with pen × on-test group as a fixed effect, second-order Legendre polynomials of age as fixed curves for each generation, and random curves for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. Different residual variances were used for the first and second halves of the test period. The RRS models were fitted with the same fixed effects and residual variance structure as the RRP models and included genetic and permanent environmental random effects for both splines and linear Legendre polynomials of age. The RRP model was used for further analysis because the RRS model had erratic estimates of phenotypic variance and heritability, despite having a smaller Bayesian information criterion than the RRP model. From 91 to 210 d of age, estimates of heritability from the RRP model ranged from 0.10 to 0.37 for boars and 0.14 to 0.26 for gilts for DFI, from 0.39 to 0.58 for boars and 0.55 to 0.61 for gilts for BW, from 0.48 to 0.61 for boars and 0.61 to 0.79 for gilts for BF, and from 0.46 to 0.55 for boars and 0.63 to 0.81 for gilts for LMA. In generation 5, LRFI pigs had lower average genetic curves than CTRL pigs for DFI and BW, especially toward the end of the test period; estimated line differences (CTRL-LRFI) for DFI were 0.04 kg/d for boars and 0.12 kg/d for gilts at 105 d and 0.20 kg/d for boars and 0.24 kg/d for gilts at 195 d. Line differences for BW were 0.17 kg for boars and 0.69 kg for gilts at 105 d and 3.49 kg for boars and 8.96 kg for gilts at 195 d. In conclusion, selection for LRFI has resulted in a lower feed intake curve and a lower BW curve toward maturity.
Feasibility Study of Solar Dome Encapsulation of Photovoltaic Arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The technical and economic advantages of using air-supported plastic enclosures to protect flat plate photovoltaic arrays are described. Conceptual designs for a fixed, latitude-tilt array and a fully tracking array were defined. Detailed wind loads and strength analyses were performed for the fixed array. Detailed thermal and power output analyses provided array performance for typical seasonal and extreme temperature conditions. Costs of each design as used in a 200 MWe central power station were defined from manufacturing and material cost estimates. The capital cost and cost of energy for the enclosed fixed-tilt array were lower than for the enclosed tracking array. The enclosed fixed-tilt array capital investment was 38% less, and the levelized bus bar energy cost was 26% less than costs for a conventional, glass-encapsulated array design. The predicted energy cost for the enclosed fixed array was 79 mills/kW-h for direct current delivered to the power conditioning units.
Modeling motor vehicle crashes using Poisson-gamma models: examining the effects of low sample mean values and small sample size on the estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique

2006-07-01

There has been considerable research conducted on the development of statistical models for predicting crashes on highway facilities. Despite numerous advancements made for improving the estimation tools of statistical models, the most common probabilistic structure used for modeling motor vehicle crashes remains the traditional Poisson and Poisson-gamma (or Negative Binomial) distribution; when crash data exhibit over-dispersion, the Poisson-gamma model is usually the model of choice most favored by transportation safety modelers. Crash data collected for safety studies often have the unusual attributes of being characterized by low sample mean values. Studies have shown that the goodness-of-fit of statistical models produced from such datasets can be significantly affected. This issue has been defined as the "low mean problem" (LMP). Despite recent developments on methods to circumvent the LMP and test the goodness-of-fit of models developed using such datasets, no work has so far examined how the LMP affects the fixed dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models used for modeling motor vehicle crashes. The dispersion parameter plays an important role in many types of safety studies and should, therefore, be reliably estimated. The primary objective of this research project was to verify whether the LMP affects the estimation of the dispersion parameter and, if it is, to determine the magnitude of the problem. The secondary objective consisted of determining the effects of an unreliably estimated dispersion parameter on common analyses performed in highway safety studies. To accomplish the objectives of the study, a series of Poisson-gamma distributions were simulated using different values describing the mean, the dispersion parameter, and the sample size. Three estimators commonly used by transportation safety modelers for estimating the dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models were evaluated: the method of moments, the weighted regression, and the maximum likelihood method. In an attempt to complement the outcome of the simulation study, Poisson-gamma models were fitted to crash data collected in Toronto, Ont. characterized by a low sample mean and small sample size. The study shows that a low sample mean combined with a small sample size can seriously affect the estimation of the dispersion parameter, no matter which estimator is used within the estimation process. The probability the dispersion parameter becomes unreliably estimated increases significantly as the sample mean and sample size decrease. Consequently, the results show that an unreliably estimated dispersion parameter can significantly undermine empirical Bayes (EB) estimates as well as the estimation of confidence intervals for the gamma mean and predicted response. The paper ends with recommendations about minimizing the likelihood of producing Poisson-gamma models with an unreliable dispersion parameter for modeling motor vehicle crashes.
Development of Flight-Test Performance Estimation Techniques for Small Unmanned Aerial Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCrink, Matthew Henry

This dissertation provides a flight-testing framework for assessing the performance of fixed-wing, small-scale unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) by leveraging sub-system models of components unique to these vehicles. The development of the sub-system models, and their links to broader impacts on sUAS performance, is the key contribution of this work. The sub-system modeling and analysis focuses on the vehicle's propulsion, navigation and guidance, and airframe components. Quantification of the uncertainty in the vehicle's power available and control states is essential for assessing the validity of both the methods and results obtained from flight-tests. Therefore, detailed propulsion and navigation system analyses are presented to validate the flight testing methodology. Propulsion system analysis required the development of an analytic model of the propeller in order to predict the power available over a range of flight conditions. The model is based on the blade element momentum (BEM) method. Additional corrections are added to the basic model in order to capture the Reynolds-dependent scale effects unique to sUAS. The model was experimentally validated using a ground based testing apparatus. The BEM predictions and experimental analysis allow for a parameterized model relating the electrical power, measurable during flight, to the power available required for vehicle performance analysis. Navigation system details are presented with a specific focus on the sensors used for state estimation, and the resulting uncertainty in vehicle state. Uncertainty quantification is provided by detailed calibration techniques validated using quasi-static and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) ground based testing. The HIL methods introduced use a soft real-time flight simulator to provide inertial quality data for assessing overall system performance. Using this tool, the uncertainty in vehicle state estimation based on a range of sensors, and vehicle operational environments is presented. The propulsion and navigation system models are used to evaluate flight-testing methods for evaluating fixed-wing sUAS performance. A brief airframe analysis is presented to provide a foundation for assessing the efficacy of the flight-test methods. The flight-testing presented in this work is focused on validating the aircraft drag polar, zero-lift drag coefficient, and span efficiency factor. Three methods are detailed and evaluated for estimating these design parameters. Specific focus is placed on the influence of propulsion and navigation system uncertainty on the resulting performance data. Performance estimates are used in conjunction with the propulsion model to estimate the impact sensor and measurement uncertainty on the endurance and range of a fixed-wing sUAS. Endurance and range results for a simplistic power available model are compared to the Reynolds-dependent model presented in this work. Additional parameter sensitivity analysis related to state estimation uncertainties encountered in flight-testing are presented. Results from these analyses indicate that the sub-system models introduced in this work are of first-order importance, on the order of 5-10% change in range and endurance, in assessing the performance of a fixed-wing sUAS.
Patents and the Global Diffusion of New Drugs.

PubMed

Cockburn, Iain M; Lanjouw, Jean O; Schankerman, Mark

2016-01-01

Analysis of the timing of launches of 642 new drugs in 76 countries during 1983–2002 shows that patent and price regulation regimes strongly affect how quickly new drugs become commercially available in different countries. Price regulation delays launch, while longer and more extensive patent rights accelerate it. Health policy institutions and economic and demographic factors that make markets more profitable also speed up diffusion. The estimated effects are generally robust to controlling for endogeneity of policy regimes with country fixed effects and instrumental variables. The results highlight the important role of policy choices in driving the diffusion of new innovations.
A silver lining? The connection between gasoline prices and obesity.

PubMed

Courtemanche, Charles

2011-01-01

I find evidence of a negative association between gasoline prices and body weight using a fixed effects model with several robustness checks. I also show that increases in gas prices are associated with additional walking and a reduction in the frequency with which people eat at restaurants, explaining their effect on weight. My estimates imply that 8% of the rise in obesity between 1979 and 2004 can be attributed to the concurrent drop in real gas prices, and that a permanent $1 increase in gasoline prices would reduce overweight and obesity in the United States by 7% and 10%.
On the stability and dynamics of stochastic spiking neuron models: Nonlinear Hawkes process and point process GLMs

PubMed Central

Truccolo, Wilson

2017-01-01

Point process generalized linear models (PP-GLMs) provide an important statistical framework for modeling spiking activity in single-neurons and neuronal networks. Stochastic stability is essential when sampling from these models, as done in computational neuroscience to analyze statistical properties of neuronal dynamics and in neuro-engineering to implement closed-loop applications. Here we show, however, that despite passing common goodness-of-fit tests, PP-GLMs estimated from data are often unstable, leading to divergent firing rates. The inclusion of absolute refractory periods is not a satisfactory solution since the activity then typically settles into unphysiological rates. To address these issues, we derive a framework for determining the existence and stability of fixed points of the expected conditional intensity function (CIF) for general PP-GLMs. Specifically, in nonlinear Hawkes PP-GLMs, the CIF is expressed as a function of the previous spike history and exogenous inputs. We use a mean-field quasi-renewal (QR) approximation that decomposes spike history effects into the contribution of the last spike and an average of the CIF over all spike histories prior to the last spike. Fixed points for stationary rates are derived as self-consistent solutions of integral equations. Bifurcation analysis and the number of fixed points predict that the original models can show stable, divergent, and metastable (fragile) dynamics. For fragile models, fluctuations of the single-neuron dynamics predict expected divergence times after which rates approach unphysiologically high values. This metric can be used to estimate the probability of rates to remain physiological for given time periods, e.g., for simulation purposes. We demonstrate the use of the stability framework using simulated single-neuron examples and neurophysiological recordings. Finally, we show how to adapt PP-GLM estimation procedures to guarantee model stability. Overall, our results provide a stability framework for data-driven PP-GLMs and shed new light on the stochastic dynamics of state-of-the-art statistical models of neuronal spiking activity. PMID:28234899
On the stability and dynamics of stochastic spiking neuron models: Nonlinear Hawkes process and point process GLMs.

PubMed

Gerhard, Felipe; Deger, Moritz; Truccolo, Wilson

2017-02-01

Point process generalized linear models (PP-GLMs) provide an important statistical framework for modeling spiking activity in single-neurons and neuronal networks. Stochastic stability is essential when sampling from these models, as done in computational neuroscience to analyze statistical properties of neuronal dynamics and in neuro-engineering to implement closed-loop applications. Here we show, however, that despite passing common goodness-of-fit tests, PP-GLMs estimated from data are often unstable, leading to divergent firing rates. The inclusion of absolute refractory periods is not a satisfactory solution since the activity then typically settles into unphysiological rates. To address these issues, we derive a framework for determining the existence and stability of fixed points of the expected conditional intensity function (CIF) for general PP-GLMs. Specifically, in nonlinear Hawkes PP-GLMs, the CIF is expressed as a function of the previous spike history and exogenous inputs. We use a mean-field quasi-renewal (QR) approximation that decomposes spike history effects into the contribution of the last spike and an average of the CIF over all spike histories prior to the last spike. Fixed points for stationary rates are derived as self-consistent solutions of integral equations. Bifurcation analysis and the number of fixed points predict that the original models can show stable, divergent, and metastable (fragile) dynamics. For fragile models, fluctuations of the single-neuron dynamics predict expected divergence times after which rates approach unphysiologically high values. This metric can be used to estimate the probability of rates to remain physiological for given time periods, e.g., for simulation purposes. We demonstrate the use of the stability framework using simulated single-neuron examples and neurophysiological recordings. Finally, we show how to adapt PP-GLM estimation procedures to guarantee model stability. Overall, our results provide a stability framework for data-driven PP-GLMs and shed new light on the stochastic dynamics of state-of-the-art statistical models of neuronal spiking activity.
Height system unification based on the Fixed Geodetic Boundary Value Problem with limited availability of gravity data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porz, Lucas; Grombein, Thomas; Seitz, Kurt; Heck, Bernhard; Wenzel, Friedemann

2017-04-01

Regional height reference systems are generally related to individual vertical datums defined by specific tide gauges. The discrepancies of these vertical datums with respect to a unified global datum cause height system biases that range in an order of 1-2 m at a global scale. One approach for unification of height systems relates to the solution of a Geodetic Boundary Value Problem (GBVP). In particular, the fixed GBVP, using gravity disturbances as boundary values, is solved at GNSS/leveling benchmarks, whereupon height datum offsets can be estimated by least squares adjustment. In spherical approximation, the solution of the fixed GBVP is obtained by Hotine's spherical integral formula. However, this method relies on the global availability of gravity data. In practice, gravity data of the necessary resolution and accuracy is not accessible globally. Thus, the integration is restricted to an area within the vicinity of the computation points. The resulting truncation error can reach several meters in height, making height system unification without further consideration of this effect unfeasible. This study analyzes methods for reducing the truncation error by combining terrestrial gravity data with satellite-based global geopotential models and by modifying the integral kernel in order to accelerate the convergence of the resulting potential. For this purpose, EGM2008-derived gravity functionals are used as pseudo-observations to be integrated numerically. Geopotential models of different spectral degrees are implemented using a remove-restore-scheme. Three types of modification are applied to the Hotine-kernel and the convergence of the resulting potential is analyzed. In a further step, the impact of these operations on the estimation of height datum offsets is investigated within a closed loop simulation. A minimum integration radius in combination with a specific modification of the Hotine-kernel is suggested in order to achieve sub-cm accuracy for the estimation of height datum offsets.
Calibrating a population-based job-exposure matrix using inspection measurements to estimate historical occupational exposure to lead for a population-based cohort in Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Koh, Dong-Hee; Bhatti, Parveen; Coble, Joseph B.; Stewart, Patricia A; Lu, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Locke, Sarah J.; Portengen, Lutzen; Yang, Gong; Chow, Wong-Ho; Gao, Yu-Tang; Rothman, Nathaniel; Vermeulen, Roel; Friesen, Melissa C.

2012-01-01

The epidemiologic evidence for the carcinogenicity of lead is inconsistent and requires improved exposure assessment to estimate risk. We evaluated historical occupational lead exposure for a population-based cohort of women (n=74,942) by calibrating a job-exposure matrix (JEM) with lead fume (n=20,084) and lead dust (n=5,383) measurements collected over four decades in Shanghai, China. Using mixed-effect models, we calibrated intensity JEM ratings to the measurements using fixed-effects terms for year and JEM rating. We developed job/industry-specific estimates from the random-effects terms for job and industry. The model estimates were applied to subjects’ jobs when the JEM probability rating was high for either job or industry; remaining jobs were considered unexposed. The models predicted that exposure increased monotonically with JEM intensity rating and decreased 20–50-fold over time. The cumulative calibrated JEM estimates and job/industry-specific estimates were highly correlated (Pearson correlation=0.79–0.84). Overall, 5% of the person-years and 8% of the women were exposed to lead fume; 2% of the person-years and 4% of the women were exposed to lead dust. The most common lead-exposed jobs were manufacturing electronic equipment. These historical lead estimates should enhance our ability to detect associations between lead exposure and cancer risk in future epidemiologic analyses. PMID:22910004
Measuring Efficiency of Tunisian Schools in the Presence of Quasi-Fixed Inputs: A Bootstrap Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Essid, Hedi; Ouellette, Pierre; Vigeant, Stephane

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to measure the efficiency of high schools in Tunisia. We use a statistical data envelopment analysis (DEA)-bootstrap approach with quasi-fixed inputs to estimate the precision of our measure. To do so, we developed a statistical model serving as the foundation of the data generation process (DGP). The DGP is…
Image-based non-contact monitoring of skin texture changed by piloerection for emotion estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchida, Mihiro; Akaho, Rina; Ogawa, Keiko; Tsumura, Norimichi

2018-02-01

In this paper, we find the effective feature values of skin textures captured by non-contact camera to monitor piloerection on the skin for emotion estimation. Recently, emotion estimation is required for service robots to interact with human more naturally. There are a lot of researches of estimating emotion and additional methods are required to improve emotion estimation because using only a few methods may not give enough information for emotion estimation. In the previous study, it is necessary to fix a device on the subject's arm for detecting piloerection, but the contact monitoring can be stress itself and distract the subject from concentrating in the stimuli and evoking strong emotion. So, we focused on the piloerection as the object obtained with non-contact methods. The piloerection is observed as goose bumps on the skin when the subject is emotionally moved, scared and so on. This phenomenon is caused by contraction of arrector pili muscles with the activation of sympathetic nervous system. This piloerection changes skin texture. Skin texture is important in the cosmetic industry to evaluate skin condition. Therefore, we thought that it will be effective to evaluate the condition of skin texture for emotion estimation. The evaluations were performed by extracting the effective feature values from skin textures captured with a high resolution camera. The effective feature values should have high correlation with the degree of piloerection. In this paper, we found that standard deviation of short-line inclination angles in the texture is well correlated with the degree of piloerection.
Simultaneous quaternion estimation (QUEST) and bias determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis

1989-01-01

Tests of a new method for the simultaneous estimation of spacecraft attitude and sensor biases, based on a quaternion estimation algorithm minimizing Wahba's loss function are presented. The new method is compared with a conventional batch least-squares differential correction algorithm. The estimates are based on data from strapdown gyros and star trackers, simulated with varying levels of Gaussian noise for both inertially-fixed and Earth-pointing reference attitudes. Both algorithms solve for the spacecraft attitude and the gyro drift rate biases. They converge to the same estimates at the same rate for inertially-fixed attitude, but the new algorithm converges more slowly than the differential correction for Earth-pointing attitude. The slower convergence of the new method for non-zero attitude rates is believed to be due to the use of an inadequate approximation for a partial derivative matrix. The new method requires about twice the computational effort of the differential correction. Improving the approximation for the partial derivative matrix in the new method is expected to improve its convergence at the cost of increased computational effort.
Energy expenditure estimation during daily military routine with body-fixed sensors.

PubMed

Wyss, Thomas; Mäder, Urs

2011-05-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate an algorithm for estimating energy expenditure during the daily military routine on the basis of data collected using body-fixed sensors. First, 8 volunteers completed isolated physical activities according to an established protocol, and the resulting data were used to develop activity-class-specific multiple linear regressions for physical activity energy expenditure on the basis of hip acceleration, heart rate, and body mass as independent variables. Second, the validity of these linear regressions was tested during the daily military routine using indirect calorimetry (n = 12). Volunteers' mean estimated energy expenditure did not significantly differ from the energy expenditure measured with indirect calorimetry (p = 0.898, 95% confidence interval = -1.97 to 1.75 kJ/min). We conclude that the developed activity-class-specific multiple linear regressions applied to the acceleration and heart rate data allow estimation of energy expenditure in 1-minute intervals during daily military routine, with accuracy equal to indirect calorimetry.
Network meta-analysis, electrical networks and graph theory.

PubMed

Rücker, Gerta

2012-12-01

Network meta-analysis is an active field of research in clinical biostatistics. It aims to combine information from all randomized comparisons among a set of treatments for a given medical condition. We show how graph-theoretical methods can be applied to network meta-analysis. A meta-analytic graph consists of vertices (treatments) and edges (randomized comparisons). We illustrate the correspondence between meta-analytic networks and electrical networks, where variance corresponds to resistance, treatment effects to voltage, and weighted treatment effects to current flows. Based thereon, we then show that graph-theoretical methods that have been routinely applied to electrical networks also work well in network meta-analysis. In more detail, the resulting consistent treatment effects induced in the edges can be estimated via the Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse of the Laplacian matrix. Moreover, the variances of the treatment effects are estimated in analogy to electrical effective resistances. It is shown that this method, being computationally simple, leads to the usual fixed effect model estimate when applied to pairwise meta-analysis and is consistent with published results when applied to network meta-analysis examples from the literature. Moreover, problems of heterogeneity and inconsistency, random effects modeling and including multi-armed trials are addressed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The relationship between combination inhaled corticosteroid and long-acting beta-agonist use and severe asthma exacerbations in a diverse population

PubMed Central

Wells, Karen E.; Peterson, Edward L.; Ahmedani, Brian K.; Severson, Richard K.; Gleason-Comstock, Julie; Williams, L. Keoki

2012-01-01

Background Safety concerns surround the use of long-acting beta agonists (LABA) for the treatment of asthma, even in combination with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) and particularly in high-risk subgroups. Objective To estimate the effect ICS therapy and fixed-dose ICS/LABA combination therapy on severe asthma exacerbations in a racially diverse population. Methods Inhaled corticosteroid and ICS/LABA exposure was estimated from pharmacy data for patients with asthma age 12 to 56 years who were members of a large health maintenance organization. Inhaled corticosteroid and ICS/LABA use was estimated for each day of follow-up to create a moving window of exposure. Proportional hazard models were used to assess the relationship between ICS and ICS/LABA combination therapy and severe asthma exacerbations (i.e., use of oral corticosteroids, asthma-related emergency department visit, or asthma-related hospitalization). Results Among the 1,828 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 37% were African American, 46% were treated with ICS therapy alone, and 54% were treated with an ICS/LABA combination. Models assessing the risk of severe asthma exacerbations among individuals using ICS treatment alone and ICS/LABA combination therapy suggested that the overall protective effect was as good or better for ICS/LABA combination therapy when compared with ICS treatment alone (hazard ratio [HR]=0.65 vs. HR=0.72, respectively). Analyses in several subgroups, including African American patients, showed a similar statistically significant protective association for combination therapy. Conclusion Treatment with ICS/LABA fixed combination therapy appeared to perform as well or better than ICS alone in reducing severe asthma exacerbations; this included multiple high-risk subgroups. PMID:22281166
Robust guaranteed-cost adaptive quantum phase estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Shibdas; Berry, Dominic W.; Petersen, Ian R.; Huntington, Elanor H.

2017-05-01

Quantum parameter estimation plays a key role in many fields like quantum computation, communication, and metrology. Optimal estimation allows one to achieve the most precise parameter estimates, but requires accurate knowledge of the model. Any inevitable uncertainty in the model parameters may heavily degrade the quality of the estimate. It is therefore desired to make the estimation process robust to such uncertainties. Robust estimation was previously studied for a varying phase, where the goal was to estimate the phase at some time in the past, using the measurement results from both before and after that time within a fixed time interval up to current time. Here, we consider a robust guaranteed-cost filter yielding robust estimates of a varying phase in real time, where the current phase is estimated using only past measurements. Our filter minimizes the largest (worst-case) variance in the allowable range of the uncertain model parameter(s) and this determines its guaranteed cost. It outperforms in the worst case the optimal Kalman filter designed for the model with no uncertainty, which corresponds to the center of the possible range of the uncertain parameter(s). Moreover, unlike the Kalman filter, our filter in the worst case always performs better than the best achievable variance for heterodyne measurements, which we consider as the tolerable threshold for our system. Furthermore, we consider effective quantum efficiency and effective noise power, and show that our filter provides the best results by these measures in the worst case.
Genetic parameters for first lactation test-day milk flow in Holstein cows.

PubMed

Laureano, M M M; Bignardi, A B; El Faro, L; Cardoso, V L; Albuquerque, L G

2012-01-01

Genetic parameters for test-day milk flow (TDMF) of 2175 first lactations of Holstein cows were estimated using multiple-trait and repeatability models. The models included the direct additive genetic effect as a random effect and contemporary group (defined as the year and month of test) and age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic effect) as fixed effects. For the repeatability model, in addition to the effects cited, the permanent environmental effect of the animal was also included as a random effect. Variance components were estimated using the restricted maximum likelihood method in single- and multiple-trait and repeatability analyses. The heritability estimates for TDMF ranged from 0.23 (TDMF 6) to 0.32 (TDMF 2 and TDMF 4) in single-trait analysis and from 0.28 (TDMF 7 and TDMF 10) to 0.37 (TDMF 4) in multiple-trait analysis. In general, higher heritabilities were observed at the beginning of lactation until the fourth month. Heritability estimated with the repeatability model was 0.27 and the coefficient of repeatability for first lactation TDMF was 0.66. The genetic correlations were positive and ranged from 0.72 (TDMF 1 and 10) to 0.97 (TDMF 4 and 5). The results indicate that milk flow should respond satisfactorily to selection, promoting rapid genetic gains because the estimated heritabilities were moderate to high. Higher genetic gains might be obtained if selection was performed in the TDMF 4. Both the repeatability model and the multiple-trait model are adequate for the genetic evaluation of animals in terms of milk flow, but the latter provides more accurate estimates of breeding values.
Mothers’ Employment and Health of Low-Income Children

PubMed Central

Gennetian, Lisa; Hill, Heather; Lopoo, Leonard; London, Andrew

2010-01-01

This study examines whether maternal employment affects the health status of low-income, elementary-school-aged children using instrumental variables estimation and experimental data from a welfare-to-work program implemented in the early 1990s. Mother’s report of child health status is predicted as a function of exogenous variation in maternal employment associated with random assignment to the program group. IV estimates show a modest adverse effect of maternal employment on children’s health. Making use of data from another welfare-to-work program we propose that any adverse effect on child health may be tempered by increased family income and access to public health insurance coverage, findings with direct relevance to a number of current policy discussions. In a secondary analysis using fixed effects techniques on longitudinal survey data collected in 1998 and 2001, we find a comparable adverse effect of maternal employment on child health that supports the external validity of our primary result. PMID:20356641
Estimation et validation des derivees de stabilite et controle du modele dynamique non-lineaire d'un drone a voilure fixe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courchesne, Samuel

Knowledge of the dynamic characteristics of a fixed-wing UAV is necessary to design flight control laws and to conceive a high quality flight simulator. The basic features of a flight mechanic model include the properties of mass, inertia and major aerodynamic terms. They respond to a complex process involving various numerical analysis techniques and experimental procedures. This thesis focuses on the analysis of estimation techniques applied to estimate problems of stability and control derivatives from flight test data provided by an experimental UAV. To achieve this objective, a modern identification methodology (Quad-M) is used to coordinate the processing tasks from multidisciplinary fields, such as parameter estimation modeling, instrumentation, the definition of flight maneuvers and validation. The system under study is a non-linear model with six degrees of freedom with a linear aerodynamic model. The time domain techniques are used for identification of the drone. The first technique, the equation error method is used to determine the structure of the aerodynamic model. Thereafter, the output error method and filter error method are used to estimate the aerodynamic coefficients values. The Matlab scripts for estimating the parameters obtained from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) are used and modified as necessary to achieve the desired results. A commendable effort in this part of research is devoted to the design of experiments. This includes an awareness of the system data acquisition onboard and the definition of flight maneuvers. The flight tests were conducted under stable flight conditions and with low atmospheric disturbance. Nevertheless, the identification results showed that the filter error method is most effective for estimating the parameters of the drone due to the presence of process noise and measurement. The aerodynamic coefficients are validated using a numerical analysis of the vortex method. In addition, a simulation model incorporating the estimated parameters is used to compare the behavior of states measured. Finally, a good correspondence between the results is demonstrated despite a limited number of flight data. Keywords: drone, identification, estimation, nonlinear, flight test, system, aerodynamic coefficient.
Further Evidence on the Effect of Acquisition Policy and Process on Cost Growth of Major Defense Acquisition Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Total Package Procurement (TPP) when it was judged to be practicable and, when not, Fixed Price Incentive Fee (FPIF) or Cost Plus Incentive Fee (CPIF...development contracts in favor of CPIF. ( Cost Plus Award Fee may not have been included in the contracting play book yet.) As a general matter, Packard’s...Group CAPE Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation CD Compact Disc CE Current Estimate CLC Calibrated Learning Curve CPIF Cost Plus Incentive Fee
A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Detection Performance in a Multi-Sensor Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

National Defence, 2014 © Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2014 DRDC...emphasis can be seen in CF publications such as the Maritime Capability Planning Guidance (MCPG) 2010 [3]. To make effective use of these new remote...fixed installation, ship, aircraft, or satellite. Ships of a certain size or type are required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to
The dim light melatonin onset following fixed and free sleep schedules.

PubMed

Burgess, Helen J; Eastman, Charmane I

2005-09-01

The time at which the dim light melatonin onset (DLMO) occurs can be used to ensure the correct timing of light and/or melatonin administration in order to produce desired circadian phase shifts. Sometimes however, measuring the DLMO is not feasible. Here we determined if the DLMO was best estimated from fixed sleep times (based on habitual sleep times) or free (ad libitum) sleep times. Young healthy sleepers on fixed (n=60) or free (n=60) sleep schedules slept at home for 6 days. Sleep times were recorded with sleep logs verified with wrist actigraphy. Half-hourly saliva samples were then collected during a dim light phase assessment and were later assayed to determine the DLMO. We found that the DLMO was more highly correlated with sleep times in the free sleepers than in the fixed sleepers (DLMO versus wake time, r=0.70 and r=0.44, both P<0.05). The regression equation between wake time and the DLMO in the free sleepers predicted the DLMO in an independent sample of free sleepers (n=23) to within 1.5 h of the actual DLMO in 96% of cases. These results indicate that the DLMO can be readily estimated in people whose sleep times are minimally affected by work, class and family commitments. Further work is necessary to determine if the DLMO can be accurately estimated in people with greater work and family responsibilities that affect their sleep times, perhaps by using weekend wake times, and if this method will apply to the elderly and patients with circadian rhythm disorders.
The dim light melatonin onset following fixed and free sleep schedules

PubMed Central

Burgess, Helen J.; Eastman, Charmane I.

2013-01-01

Summary The time at which the dim light melatonin onset (DLMO) occurs can be used to ensure the correct timing of light and/or melatonin administration in order to produce desired circadian phase shifts. Sometimes however, measuring the DLMO is not feasible. Here we determined if the DLMO was best estimated from fixed sleep times (based on habitual sleep times) or free (ad libitum) sleep times. Young healthy sleepers on fixed (n = 60) or free (n = 60) sleep schedules slept at home for 6 days. Sleep times were recorded with sleep logs verified with wrist actigraphy. Half-hourly saliva samples were then collected during a dim light phase assessment and were later assayed to determine the DLMO. We found that the DLMO was more highly correlated with sleep times in the free sleepers than in the fixed sleepers (DLMO versus wake time, r = 0.70 and r = 0.44, both P < 0.05). The regression equation between wake time and the DLMO in the free sleepers predicted the DLMO in an independent sample of free sleepers (n = 23) to within 1.5 h of the actual DLMO in 96% of cases. These results indicate that the DLMO can be readily estimated in people whose sleep times are minimally affected by work, class and family commitments. Further work is necessary to determine if the DLMO can be accurately estimated in people with greater work and family responsibilities that affect their sleep times, perhaps by using weekend wake times, and if this method will apply to the elderly and patients with circadian rhythm disorders. PMID:16120097
Crustal dynamics project data analysis, 1987. Volume 1: Fixed station VLBI geodetic results, 1979-1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, J. W.; Ma, C.

1987-01-01

The Goddard VLBI group reports the results of analyzing Mark III data sets from fixed observatories through the end of 1986 and available to the Crustal Dynamics Project. All full-day data from POLARIS/IRIS are included. The mobile VLBI sites at Platteville (Colorado), Penticton (British Columbia), and Yellowknife (Northwest Territories) are also included since these occupations bear on the study of plate stability. Two large solutions, GLB121 and GLB122, were used to obtain Earth rotation parameters and baseline evolutions, respectively. Radio source positions were estimated globally while nutation offsets were estimated from each data set. The results include 25 sites and 108 baselines.
Crustal dynamics project data analysis fixed station VLBI geodetic results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, J. W.; Ma, C.

1985-01-01

The Goddard VLBI group reports the results of analyzing the fixed observatory VLBI data available to the Crustal Dynamics Project through the end of 1984. All POLARIS/IRIS full-day data are included. The mobile site at Platteville, Colorado is also included since its occupation bears on the study of plate stability. Data from 1980 through 1984 were used to obtain the catalog of site and radio source positions labeled S284C. Using this catalog two types of one-day solutions were made: (1) to estimate site and baseline motions; and (2) to estimate Earth rotation parameters. A priori Earth rotation parameters were interpolated to the epoch of each observation from BIH Circular D.
Target Capturing Control for Space Robots with Unknown Mass Properties: A Self-Tuning Method Based on Gyros and Cameras.

PubMed

Li, Zhenyu; Wang, Bin; Liu, Hong

2016-08-30

Satellite capturing with free-floating space robots is still a challenging task due to the non-fixed base and unknown mass property issues. In this paper gyro and eye-in-hand camera data are adopted as an alternative choice for solving this problem. For this improved system, a new modeling approach that reduces the complexity of system control and identification is proposed. With the newly developed model, the space robot is equivalent to a ground-fixed manipulator system. Accordingly, a self-tuning control scheme is applied to handle such a control problem including unknown parameters. To determine the controller parameters, an estimator is designed based on the least-squares technique for identifying the unknown mass properties in real time. The proposed method is tested with a credible 3-dimensional ground verification experimental system, and the experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.
Target Capturing Control for Space Robots with Unknown Mass Properties: A Self-Tuning Method Based on Gyros and Cameras

PubMed Central

Li, Zhenyu; Wang, Bin; Liu, Hong

2016-01-01

Satellite capturing with free-floating space robots is still a challenging task due to the non-fixed base and unknown mass property issues. In this paper gyro and eye-in-hand camera data are adopted as an alternative choice for solving this problem. For this improved system, a new modeling approach that reduces the complexity of system control and identification is proposed. With the newly developed model, the space robot is equivalent to a ground-fixed manipulator system. Accordingly, a self-tuning control scheme is applied to handle such a control problem including unknown parameters. To determine the controller parameters, an estimator is designed based on the least-squares technique for identifying the unknown mass properties in real time. The proposed method is tested with a credible 3-dimensional ground verification experimental system, and the experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme. PMID:27589748
Chaos control in delayed phase space constructed by the Takens embedding theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajiloo, R.; Salarieh, H.; Alasty, A.

2018-01-01

In this paper, the problem of chaos control in discrete-time chaotic systems with unknown governing equations and limited measurable states is investigated. Using the time-series of only one measurable state, an algorithm is proposed to stabilize unstable fixed points. The approach consists of three steps: first, using Takens embedding theory, a delayed phase space preserving the topological characteristics of the unknown system is reconstructed. Second, a dynamic model is identified by recursive least squares method to estimate the time-series data in the delayed phase space. Finally, based on the reconstructed model, an appropriate linear delayed feedback controller is obtained for stabilizing unstable fixed points of the system. Controller gains are computed using a systematic approach. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is examined by applying it to the generalized hyperchaotic Henon system, prey-predator population map, and the discrete-time Lorenz system.
Accounting for individual differences and timing of events: estimating the effect of treatment on criminal convictions in heroin users

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The reduction of crime is an important outcome of opioid maintenance treatment (OMT). Criminal intensity and treatment regimes vary among OMT patients, but this is rarely adjusted for in statistical analyses, which tend to focus on cohort incidence rates and rate ratios. The purpose of this work was to estimate the relationship between treatment and criminal convictions among OMT patients, adjusting for individual covariate information and timing of events, fitting time-to-event regression models of increasing complexity. Methods National criminal records were cross linked with treatment data on 3221 patients starting OMT in Norway 1997–2003. In addition to calculating cohort incidence rates, criminal convictions was modelled as a recurrent event dependent variable, and treatment a time-dependent covariate, in Cox proportional hazards, Aalen’s additive hazards, and semi-parametric additive hazards regression models. Both fixed and dynamic covariates were included. Results During OMT, the number of days with criminal convictions for the cohort as a whole was 61% lower than when not in treatment. OMT was associated with reduced number of days with criminal convictions in all time-to-event regression models, but the hazard ratio (95% CI) was strongly attenuated when adjusting for covariates; from 0.40 (0.35, 0.45) in a univariate model to 0.79 (0.72, 0.87) in a fully adjusted model. The hazard was lower for females and decreasing with older age, while increasing with high numbers of criminal convictions prior to application to OMT (all p < 0.001). The strongest predictors were level of criminal activity prior to entering into OMT, and having a recent criminal conviction (both p < 0.001). The effect of several predictors was significantly time-varying with their effects diminishing over time. Conclusions Analyzing complex observational data regarding to fixed factors only overlooks important temporal information, and naïve cohort level incidence rates might result in biased estimates of the effect of interventions. Applying time-to-event regression models, properly adjusting for individual covariate information and timing of various events, allows for more precise and reliable effect estimates, as well as painting a more nuanced picture that can aid health care professionals and policy makers. PMID:24886472
Scalable problems and memory bounded speedup

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, Xian-He; Ni, Lionel M.

1992-01-01

In this paper three models of parallel speedup are studied. They are fixed-size speedup, fixed-time speedup and memory-bounded speedup. The latter two consider the relationship between speedup and problem scalability. Two sets of speedup formulations are derived for these three models. One set considers uneven workload allocation and communication overhead and gives more accurate estimation. Another set considers a simplified case and provides a clear picture on the impact of the sequential portion of an application on the possible performance gain from parallel processing. The simplified fixed-size speedup is Amdahl's law. The simplified fixed-time speedup is Gustafson's scaled speedup. The simplified memory-bounded speedup contains both Amdahl's law and Gustafson's scaled speedup as special cases. This study leads to a better understanding of parallel processing.
Estimation in a discrete tail rate family of recapture sampling models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Rajan; Lee, Larry D.

1990-01-01

In the context of recapture sampling design for debugging experiments the problem of estimating the error or hitting rate of the faults remaining in a system is considered. Moment estimators are derived for a family of models in which the rate parameters are assumed proportional to the tail probabilities of a discrete distribution on the positive integers. The estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Their fixed sample properties are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators.
Adaptive UAV Attitude Estimation Employing Unscented Kalman Filter, FOAM and Low-Cost MEMS Sensors

PubMed Central

de Marina, Héctor García; Espinosa, Felipe; Santos, Carlos

2012-01-01

Navigation employing low cost MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is an uprising challenge. One important part of this navigation is the right estimation of the attitude angles. Most of the existent algorithms handle the sensor readings in a fixed way, leading to large errors in different mission stages like take-off aerobatic maneuvers. This paper presents an adaptive method to estimate these angles using off-the-shelf components. This paper introduces an Attitude Heading Reference System (AHRS) based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) using the Fast Optimal Attitude Matrix (FOAM) algorithm as the observation model. The performance of the method is assessed through simulations. Moreover, field experiments are presented using a real fixed-wing UAV. The proposed low cost solution, implemented in a microcontroller, shows a satisfactory real time performance. PMID:23012559
Under-sampling trajectory design for compressed sensing based DCE-MRI.

PubMed

Liu, Duan-duan; Liang, Dong; Zhang, Na; Liu, Xin; Zhang, Yuan-ting

2013-01-01

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) needs high temporal and spatial resolution to accurately estimate quantitative parameters and characterize tumor vasculature. Compressed Sensing (CS) has the potential to accomplish this mutual importance. However, the randomness in CS under-sampling trajectory designed using the traditional variable density (VD) scheme may translate to uncertainty in kinetic parameter estimation when high reduction factors are used. Therefore, accurate parameter estimation using VD scheme usually needs multiple adjustments on parameters of Probability Density Function (PDF), and multiple reconstructions even with fixed PDF, which is inapplicable for DCE-MRI. In this paper, an under-sampling trajectory design which is robust to the change on PDF parameters and randomness with fixed PDF is studied. The strategy is to adaptively segment k-space into low-and high frequency domain, and only apply VD scheme in high-frequency domain. Simulation results demonstrate high accuracy and robustness comparing to VD design.
The impact of calibration and clock-model choice on molecular estimates of divergence times.

PubMed

Duchêne, Sebastián; Lanfear, Robert; Ho, Simon Y W

2014-09-01

Phylogenetic estimates of evolutionary timescales can be obtained from nucleotide sequence data using the molecular clock. These estimates are important for our understanding of evolutionary processes across all taxonomic levels. The molecular clock needs to be calibrated with an independent source of information, such as fossil evidence, to allow absolute ages to be inferred. Calibration typically involves fixing or constraining the age of at least one node in the phylogeny, enabling the ages of the remaining nodes to be estimated. We conducted an extensive simulation study to investigate the effects of the position and number of calibrations on the resulting estimate of the timescale. Our analyses focused on Bayesian estimates obtained using relaxed molecular clocks. Our findings suggest that an effective strategy is to include multiple calibrations and to prefer those that are close to the root of the phylogeny. Under these conditions, we found that evolutionary timescales could be estimated accurately even when the relaxed-clock model was misspecified and when the sequence data were relatively uninformative. We tested these findings in a case study of simian foamy virus, where we found that shallow calibrations caused the overall timescale to be underestimated by up to three orders of magnitude. Finally, we provide some recommendations for improving the practice of molecular-clock calibration. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance of nonlinear mixed effects models in the presence of informative dropout.

PubMed

Björnsson, Marcus A; Friberg, Lena E; Simonsson, Ulrika S H

2015-01-01

Informative dropout can lead to bias in statistical analyses if not handled appropriately. The objective of this simulation study was to investigate the performance of nonlinear mixed effects models with regard to bias and precision, with and without handling informative dropout. An efficacy variable and dropout depending on that efficacy variable were simulated and model parameters were reestimated, with or without including a dropout model. The Laplace and FOCE-I estimation methods in NONMEM 7, and the stochastic simulations and estimations (SSE) functionality in PsN, were used in the analysis. For the base scenario, bias was low, less than 5% for all fixed effects parameters, when a dropout model was used in the estimations. When a dropout model was not included, bias increased up to 8% for the Laplace method and up to 21% if the FOCE-I estimation method was applied. The bias increased with decreasing number of observations per subject, increasing placebo effect and increasing dropout rate, but was relatively unaffected by the number of subjects in the study. This study illustrates that ignoring informative dropout can lead to biased parameters in nonlinear mixed effects modeling, but even in cases with few observations or high dropout rate, the bias is relatively low and only translates into small effects on predictions of the underlying effect variable. A dropout model is, however, crucial in the presence of informative dropout in order to make realistic simulations of trial outcomes.
Is scale-invariance in gauge-Yukawa systems compatible with the graviton?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christiansen, Nicolai; Eichhorn, Astrid; Held, Aaron

2017-10-01

We explore whether perturbative interacting fixed points in matter systems can persist under the impact of quantum gravity. We first focus on semisimple gauge theories and show that the leading order gravity contribution evaluated within the functional Renormalization Group framework preserves the perturbative fixed-point structure in these models discovered in [J. K. Esbensen, T. A. Ryttov, and F. Sannino, Phys. Rev. D 93, 045009 (2016)., 10.1103/PhysRevD.93.045009]. We highlight that the quantum-gravity contribution alters the scaling dimension of the gauge coupling, such that the system exhibits an effective dimensional reduction. We secondly explore the effect of metric fluctuations on asymptotically safe gauge-Yukawa systems which feature an asymptotically safe fixed point [D. F. Litim and F. Sannino, J. High Energy Phys. 12 (2014) 178., 10.1007/JHEP12(2014)178]. The same effective dimensional reduction that takes effect in pure gauge theories also impacts gauge-Yukawa systems. There, it appears to lead to a split of the degenerate free fixed point into an interacting infrared attractive fixed point and a partially ultraviolet attractive free fixed point. The quantum-gravity induced infrared fixed point moves towards the asymptotically safe fixed point of the matter system, and annihilates it at a critical value of the gravity coupling. Even after that fixed-point annihilation, graviton effects leave behind new partially interacting fixed points for the matter sector.
Comparing line-intersect, fixed-area, and point relascope sampling for dead and downed coarse woody material in a managed northern hardwood forest

Treesearch

G. J. Jordan; M. J. Ducey; J. H. Gove

2004-01-01

We present the results of a timed field trial comparing the bias characteristics and relative sampling efficiency of line-intersect, fixed-area, and point relascope sampling for downed coarse woody material. Seven stands in a managed northern hardwood forest in New Hampshire were inventoried. Significant differences were found among estimates in some stands, indicating...
The Estimation of Gestational Age at Birth in Database Studies.

PubMed

Eberg, Maria; Platt, Robert W; Filion, Kristian B

2017-11-01

Studies on the safety of prenatal medication use require valid estimation of the pregnancy duration. However, gestational age is often incompletely recorded in administrative and clinical databases. Our objective was to compare different approaches to estimating the pregnancy duration. Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics, we examined the following four approaches to estimating missing gestational age: (1) generalized estimating equations for longitudinal data; (2) multiple imputation; (3) estimation based on fetal birth weight and sex; and (4) conventional approaches that assigned a fixed value (39 weeks for all or 39 weeks for full term and 35 weeks for preterm). The gestational age recorded in Hospital Episode Statistics was considered the gold standard. We conducted a simulation study comparing the described approaches in terms of estimated bias and mean square error. A total of 25,929 infants from 22,774 mothers were included in our "gold standard" cohort. The smallest average absolute bias was observed for the generalized estimating equation that included birth weight, while the largest absolute bias occurred when assigning 39-week gestation to all those with missing values. The smallest mean square errors were detected with generalized estimating equations while multiple imputation had the highest mean square errors. The use of generalized estimating equations resulted in the most accurate estimation of missing gestational age when birth weight information was available. In the absence of birth weight, assignment of fixed gestational age based on term/preterm status may be the optimal approach.
Short communication: influence of composite casein genotypes on additive genetic variation of milk production traits and coagulation properties in Holstein-Friesian cows.

PubMed

Penasa, M; Cassandro, M; Pretto, D; De Marchi, M; Comin, A; Chessa, S; Dal Zotto, R; Bittante, G

2010-07-01

The aim of the study was to quantify the effects of composite beta- and kappa-casein (CN) genotypes on genetic variation of milk coagulation properties (MCP); milk yield; fat, protein, and CN contents; somatic cell score; pH; and titratable acidity (TA) in 1,042 Italian Holstein-Friesian cows. Milk coagulation properties were defined as rennet coagulation time (RCT) and curd firmness (a(30)). Variance components were estimated using 2 animal models: model 1 included herd, days in milk, and parity as fixed effects and animal and residual as random effects, and model 2 was model 1 with the addition of composite beta- and kappa-CN genotype as a fixed effect. Genetic correlations between RCT and a(30) and between these traits and milk production traits were obtained with bivariate analyses, based on the same models. The inclusion of casein genotypes led to a decrease of 47, 68, 18, and 23% in the genetic variance for RCT, a(30), pH, and TA, respectively, and less than 6% for other traits. Heritability of RCT and a(30) decreased from 0.248 to 0.143 and from 0.123 to 0.043, respectively. A moderate reduction was found for pH and TA, whereas negligible changes were detected for other milk traits. Estimates of genetic correlations were comparable between the 2 models. Results show that composite beta- and kappa-CN genotypes are important for RCT and a(30) but cannot replace the recording of MCP themselves. Copyright (c) 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Integer ambiguity resolution in precise point positioning: method comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Jianghui; Meng, Xiaolin; Dodson, Alan H.; Teferle, Felix N.

2010-09-01

Integer ambiguity resolution at a single receiver can be implemented by applying improved satellite products where the fractional-cycle biases (FCBs) have been separated from the integer ambiguities in a network solution. One method to achieve these products is to estimate the FCBs by averaging the fractional parts of the float ambiguity estimates, and the other is to estimate the integer-recovery clocks by fixing the undifferenced ambiguities to integers in advance. In this paper, we theoretically prove the equivalence of the ambiguity-fixed position estimates derived from these two methods by assuming that the FCBs are hardware-dependent and only they are assimilated into the clocks and ambiguities. To verify this equivalence, we implement both methods in the Position and Navigation Data Analyst software to process 1 year of GPS data from a global network of about 350 stations. The mean biases between all daily position estimates derived from these two methods are only 0.2, 0.1 and 0.0 mm, whereas the standard deviations of all position differences are only 1.3, 0.8 and 2.0 mm for the East, North and Up components, respectively. Moreover, the differences of the position repeatabilities are below 0.2 mm on average for all three components. The RMS of the position estimates minus those from the International GNSS Service weekly solutions for the former method differs by below 0.1 mm on average for each component from that for the latter method. Therefore, considering the recognized millimeter-level precision of current GPS-derived daily positions, these statistics empirically demonstrate the theoretical equivalence of the ambiguity-fixed position estimates derived from these two methods. In practice, we note that the former method is compatible with current official clock-generation methods, whereas the latter method is not, but can potentially lead to slightly better positioning quality.
Precise Point Positioning with Partial Ambiguity Fixing.

PubMed

Li, Pan; Zhang, Xiaohong

2015-06-10

Reliable and rapid ambiguity resolution (AR) is the key to fast precise point positioning (PPP). We propose a modified partial ambiguity resolution (PAR) method, in which an elevation and standard deviation criterion are first used to remove the low-precision ambiguity estimates for AR. Subsequently the success rate and ratio-test are simultaneously used in an iterative process to increase the possibility of finding a subset of decorrelated ambiguities which can be fixed with high confidence. One can apply the proposed PAR method to try to achieve an ambiguity-fixed solution when full ambiguity resolution (FAR) fails. We validate this method using data from 450 stations during DOY 021 to 027, 2012. Results demonstrate the proposed PAR method can significantly shorten the time to first fix (TTFF) and increase the fixing rate. Compared with FAR, the average TTFF for PAR is reduced by 14.9% for static PPP and 15.1% for kinematic PPP. Besides, using the PAR method, the average fixing rate can be increased from 83.5% to 98.2% for static PPP, from 80.1% to 95.2% for kinematic PPP respectively. Kinematic PPP accuracy with PAR can also be significantly improved, compared to that with FAR, due to a higher fixing rate.
Precise Point Positioning with Partial Ambiguity Fixing

PubMed Central

Li, Pan; Zhang, Xiaohong

2015-01-01

Reliable and rapid ambiguity resolution (AR) is the key to fast precise point positioning (PPP). We propose a modified partial ambiguity resolution (PAR) method, in which an elevation and standard deviation criterion are first used to remove the low-precision ambiguity estimates for AR. Subsequently the success rate and ratio-test are simultaneously used in an iterative process to increase the possibility of finding a subset of decorrelated ambiguities which can be fixed with high confidence. One can apply the proposed PAR method to try to achieve an ambiguity-fixed solution when full ambiguity resolution (FAR) fails. We validate this method using data from 450 stations during DOY 021 to 027, 2012. Results demonstrate the proposed PAR method can significantly shorten the time to first fix (TTFF) and increase the fixing rate. Compared with FAR, the average TTFF for PAR is reduced by 14.9% for static PPP and 15.1% for kinematic PPP. Besides, using the PAR method, the average fixing rate can be increased from 83.5% to 98.2% for static PPP, from 80.1% to 95.2% for kinematic PPP respectively. Kinematic PPP accuracy with PAR can also be significantly improved, compared to that with FAR, due to a higher fixing rate. PMID:26067196
An optimally weighted estimator of the linear power spectrum disentangling the growth of density perturbations across galaxy surveys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorini, D., E-mail: sorini@mpia-hd.mpg.de

2017-04-01

Measuring the clustering of galaxies from surveys allows us to estimate the power spectrum of matter density fluctuations, thus constraining cosmological models. This requires careful modelling of observational effects to avoid misinterpretation of data. In particular, signals coming from different distances encode information from different epochs. This is known as ''light-cone effect'' and is going to have a higher impact as upcoming galaxy surveys probe larger redshift ranges. Generalising the method by Feldman, Kaiser and Peacock (1994) [1], I define a minimum-variance estimator of the linear power spectrum at a fixed time, properly taking into account the light-cone effect. Anmore » analytic expression for the estimator is provided, and that is consistent with the findings of previous works in the literature. I test the method within the context of the Halofit model, assuming Planck 2014 cosmological parameters [2]. I show that the estimator presented recovers the fiducial linear power spectrum at present time within 5% accuracy up to k ∼ 0.80 h Mpc{sup −1} and within 10% up to k ∼ 0.94 h Mpc{sup −1}, well into the non-linear regime of the growth of density perturbations. As such, the method could be useful in the analysis of the data from future large-scale surveys, like Euclid.« less
Learning Multisensory Integration and Coordinate Transformation via Density Estimation

PubMed Central

Sabes, Philip N.

2013-01-01

Sensory processing in the brain includes three key operations: multisensory integration—the task of combining cues into a single estimate of a common underlying stimulus; coordinate transformations—the change of reference frame for a stimulus (e.g., retinotopic to body-centered) effected through knowledge about an intervening variable (e.g., gaze position); and the incorporation of prior information. Statistically optimal sensory processing requires that each of these operations maintains the correct posterior distribution over the stimulus. Elements of this optimality have been demonstrated in many behavioral contexts in humans and other animals, suggesting that the neural computations are indeed optimal. That the relationships between sensory modalities are complex and plastic further suggests that these computations are learned—but how? We provide a principled answer, by treating the acquisition of these mappings as a case of density estimation, a well-studied problem in machine learning and statistics, in which the distribution of observed data is modeled in terms of a set of fixed parameters and a set of latent variables. In our case, the observed data are unisensory-population activities, the fixed parameters are synaptic connections, and the latent variables are multisensory-population activities. In particular, we train a restricted Boltzmann machine with the biologically plausible contrastive-divergence rule to learn a range of neural computations not previously demonstrated under a single approach: optimal integration; encoding of priors; hierarchical integration of cues; learning when not to integrate; and coordinate transformation. The model makes testable predictions about the nature of multisensory representations. PMID:23637588
A large-scale genetic association study to evaluate the contribution of Omi/HtrA2 (PARK13) to Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Krüger, Rejko; Sharma, Manu; Riess, Olaf; Gasser, Thomas; Van Broeckhoven, Christine; Theuns, Jessie; Aasly, Jan; Annesi, Grazia; Bentivoglio, Anna Rita; Brice, Alexis; Djarmati, Ana; Elbaz, Alexis; Farrer, Matthew; Ferrarese, Carlo; Gibson, J Mark; Hadjigeorgiou, Georgios M; Hattori, Nobutaka; Ioannidis, John P A; Jasinska-Myga, Barbara; Klein, Christine; Lambert, Jean-Charles; Lesage, Suzanne; Lin, Juei-Jueng; Lynch, Timothy; Mellick, George D; de Nigris, Francesa; Opala, Grzegorz; Prigione, Alessandro; Quattrone, Aldo; Ross, Owen A; Satake, Wataru; Silburn, Peter A; Tan, Eng King; Toda, Tatsushi; Tomiyama, Hiroyuki; Wirdefeldt, Karin; Wszolek, Zbigniew; Xiromerisiou, Georgia; Maraganore, Demetrius M

2011-03-01

High-profile studies have provided conflicting results regarding the involvement of the Omi/HtrA2 gene in Parkinson's disease (PD) susceptibility. Therefore, we performed a large-scale analysis of the association of common Omi/HtrA2 variants in the Genetic Epidemiology of Parkinson's disease (GEO-PD) consortium. GEO-PD sites provided clinical and genetic data including affection status, gender, ethnicity, age at study, age at examination (all subjects); age at onset and family history of PD (patients). Genotyping was performed for the five most informative SNPs spanning the Omi/HtrA2 gene in approximately 2-3 kb intervals (rs10779958, rs2231250, rs72470544, rs1183739, rs2241028). Fixed as well as random effect models were used to provide summary risk estimates of Omi/HtrA2 variants. The 20 GEO-PD sites provided data for 6378 cases and 8880 controls. No overall significant associations for the five Omi/HtrA2 SNPs and PD were observed using either fixed effect or random effect models. The summary odds ratios ranged between 0.98 and 1.08 and the estimates of between-study heterogeneity were not large (non-significant Q statistics for all 5 SNPs; I(2) estimates 0-28%). Trends for association were seen for participants of Scandinavian descent for rs2241028 (OR 1.41, p=0.04) and for rs1183739 for age at examination (cut-off 65 years; OR 1.17, p=0.02), but these would not be significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons and their Bayes factors were only modest. This largest association study performed to define the role of any gene in the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease revealed no overall strong association of Omi/HtrA2 variants with PD in populations worldwide. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Comparing three sampling techniques for estimating fine woody down dead biomass

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Kathy Gray

2013-01-01

Designing woody fuel sampling methods that quickly, accurately and efficiently assess biomass at relevant spatial scales requires extensive knowledge of each sampling method's strengths, weaknesses and tradeoffs. In this study, we compared various modifications of three common sampling methods (planar intercept, fixed-area microplot and photoload) for estimating...
78 FR 79712 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-31

... (generally, fixed-income securities), provided that: (i) The capital gains distribution falls within one of... Commission pursuant to the Act and rules thereunder. Commission staff estimates that zero funds will file an... estimates that, each year, zero funds will file an application pursuant to rule 19b- 1(e), the total burden...
Household income and preschool attendance in china.

PubMed

Gong, Xin; Xu, Di; Han, Wen-Jui

2015-01-01

This article draws upon the literature showing the benefits of high-quality preschools on child well-being to explore the role of household income on preschool attendance for a cohort of 3- to 6-year-olds in China using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, 1991-2006. Analyses are conducted separately for rural (N = 1,791) and urban (N = 633) settings. Estimates from a probit model with rich controls suggest a positive association between household income per capita and preschool attendance in both settings. A household fixed-effects model, conducted only on the rural sample, finds results similar to, although smaller than, those from the probit estimates. Policy recommendations are discussed. © 2014 The Authors. Child Development © 2014 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.
Survival times for cats with hyperthyroidism treated with a 3.35 mCi iodine-131 dose: a retrospective study of 96 cases.

PubMed

Vagney, Marie; Desquilbet, Loic; Reyes-Gomez, Edouard; Delisle, Françoise; Devauchelle, Patrick; Rodriguez-Piñeiro, Maria Isabel; Rosenberg, Dan; de Fornel-Thibaud, Pauline

2018-06-01

Objectives Radioiodine ( 131 I) dose determination using radiotracer kinetic studies or scoring systems, and fixed relatively high 131 I dose (ie, 4 or 5 mCi) administration, are effective and associated with prolonged survival times for hyperthyroid cats. The latter method is less complicated but could expose patients and veterinary personnel to unnecessary levels of radiation. The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the efficacy of a fixed 3.35 mCi 131 I dose for the treatment of 96 hyperthyroid cats with no length estimation for any palpated goitre ⩾20 mm, assess outcome and identify factors associated with survival. Methods Serum total thyroxine concentrations at diagnosis and at follow-up times, survival times and cause of death were recorded. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with time to any cause of death from 131 I therapy initiation. Results Administration of a median (interquartile range) dose of 3.35 mCi (3.27-3.44 mCi) radioiodine was an effective treatment in 94/96 cats, but two cats remained hyperthyroid. No death related to hyperthyroidism was recorded. Median survival time was 3.0 years; the 1 and 2 year survival rates after 131 I therapy were 90% and 78%, respectively. Low body weight (⩽3.1 kg; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 5.88; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.22-16.67; P <0.01) and male gender (aHR 2.63; 95% CI 1.01-7.14; P = 0.04) were independently associated with death, whereas age, prior treatment with antithyroid drugs, reason for treatment and pretreatment azotaemia were not. Conclusions and relevance This study suggests that a fixed 3.35 mCi 131 I dose treatment is effective for hyperthyroid cats with goitre(s) with a maximal length estimation <20 mm, that long-term survival can be achieved and that low body weight and male gender are significantly associated with shorter survival times.
The succinonitrile triple-point standard: a fixed point to improve the accuracy of temperature measurements in the clinical laboratory.

PubMed

Mangum, B W

1983-07-01

In an investigation of the melting and freezing behavior of succinonitrile, the triple-point temperature was determined to be 58.0805 degrees C, with an estimated uncertainty of +/- 0.0015 degrees C relative to the International Practical Temperature Scale of 1968 (IPTS-68). The triple-point temperature of this material is evaluated as a temperature-fixed point, and some clinical laboratory applications of this fixed point are proposed. In conjunction with the gallium and ice points, the availability of succinonitrile permits thermistor thermometers to be calibrated accurately and easily on the IPTS-68.
Conceptual design of a fixed-pitch wind turbine generator system rated at 400 kilowatts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pintz, A.; Kasuba, R.; Spring, J.

1984-01-01

The design and cost aspects of a fixed pitch, 400 kW Wind Turbine Generator (WTG) concept are presented. Improvements in reliability and cost reductions were achieved with fixed pitch operation and by incorporating recent advances in WTG technology. The specifications for this WTG concept were as follows: (1) A fixed pitch, continuous wooden rotor was to be provided by the Gougeon Bros. Co. (2) An 8 leg hyperboloid tower that showed promise as a low cost structure was to be used. (3) Only commercially available components and parts that could be easily fabricated were to be considered. (4) Design features deemed desirable based on recent NASA research efforts were to be incorporated. Detailed costs and weight estimates were prepared for the second machine and a wind farm of 12 WTG's. The calculated cost of energy for the fixed pitch, twelve unit windfarm is 11.5 cents/kW hr not including the cost of land and access roads. The study shows feasibility of fixed pitch, intermediate power WTG operation.
Scene-based nonuniformity correction algorithm based on interframe registration.

PubMed

Zuo, Chao; Chen, Qian; Gu, Guohua; Sui, Xiubao

2011-06-01

In this paper, we present a simple and effective scene-based nonuniformity correction (NUC) method for infrared focal plane arrays based on interframe registration. This method estimates the global translation between two adjacent frames and minimizes the mean square error between the two properly registered images to make any two detectors with the same scene produce the same output value. In this way, the accumulation of the registration error can be avoided and the NUC can be achieved. The advantages of the proposed algorithm lie in its low computational complexity and storage requirements and ability to capture temporal drifts in the nonuniformity parameters. The performance of the proposed technique is thoroughly studied with infrared image sequences with simulated nonuniformity and infrared imagery with real nonuniformity. It shows a significantly fast and reliable fixed-pattern noise reduction and obtains an effective frame-by-frame adaptive estimation of each detector's gain and offset.
Spiral microstrip hyperthermia applicators: technical design and clinical performance.

PubMed

Samulski, T V; Fessenden, P; Lee, E R; Kapp, D S; Tanabe, E; McEuen, A

1990-01-01

Spiral microstrip microwave (MW) antennas have been developed and adapted for use as clinical hyperthermia applicators. The design has been configured in a variety of forms including single fixed antenna applicators, multi-element arrays, and mechanically scanned single or paired antennas. The latter three configurations have been used to allow an expansion of the effective heating area. Specific absorption rate (SAR) distributions measured in phantom have been used to estimate the depth and volume of effective heating. The estimates are made using the bioheat equation assuming uniformly perfused tissue. In excess of 500 treatments of patients with advanced or recurrent localized superficial tumors have been performed using this applicator technology. Data from clinical treatments have been analyzed to quantify the heating performance and verify the suitability of these applicators for clinical use. Good microwave coupling efficiency together with the compact applicator size have proved to be valuable clinical assets.
Logistic random effects regression models: a comparison of statistical packages for binary and ordinal outcomes.

PubMed

Li, Baoyue; Lingsma, Hester F; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2011-05-23

Logistic random effects models are a popular tool to analyze multilevel also called hierarchical data with a binary or ordinal outcome. Here, we aim to compare different statistical software implementations of these models. We used individual patient data from 8509 patients in 231 centers with moderate and severe Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) enrolled in eight Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and three observational studies. We fitted logistic random effects regression models with the 5-point Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) as outcome, both dichotomized as well as ordinal, with center and/or trial as random effects, and as covariates age, motor score, pupil reactivity or trial. We then compared the implementations of frequentist and Bayesian methods to estimate the fixed and random effects. Frequentist approaches included R (lme4), Stata (GLLAMM), SAS (GLIMMIX and NLMIXED), MLwiN ([R]IGLS) and MIXOR, Bayesian approaches included WinBUGS, MLwiN (MCMC), R package MCMCglmm and SAS experimental procedure MCMC.Three data sets (the full data set and two sub-datasets) were analysed using basically two logistic random effects models with either one random effect for the center or two random effects for center and trial. For the ordinal outcome in the full data set also a proportional odds model with a random center effect was fitted. The packages gave similar parameter estimates for both the fixed and random effects and for the binary (and ordinal) models for the main study and when based on a relatively large number of level-1 (patient level) data compared to the number of level-2 (hospital level) data. However, when based on relatively sparse data set, i.e. when the numbers of level-1 and level-2 data units were about the same, the frequentist and Bayesian approaches showed somewhat different results. The software implementations differ considerably in flexibility, computation time, and usability. There are also differences in the availability of additional tools for model evaluation, such as diagnostic plots. The experimental SAS (version 9.2) procedure MCMC appeared to be inefficient. On relatively large data sets, the different software implementations of logistic random effects regression models produced similar results. Thus, for a large data set there seems to be no explicit preference (of course if there is no preference from a philosophical point of view) for either a frequentist or Bayesian approach (if based on vague priors). The choice for a particular implementation may largely depend on the desired flexibility, and the usability of the package. For small data sets the random effects variances are difficult to estimate. In the frequentist approaches the MLE of this variance was often estimated zero with a standard error that is either zero or could not be determined, while for Bayesian methods the estimates could depend on the chosen "non-informative" prior of the variance parameter. The starting value for the variance parameter may be also critical for the convergence of the Markov chain.

Genome Wide Analysis of Fertility and Production Traits in Italian Holstein Cattle

PubMed Central

Stella, Alessandra; Biffani, Stefano; Negrini, Riccardo; Lazzari, Barbara; Ajmone-Marsan, Paolo; Williams, John L .

2013-01-01

A genome wide scan was performed on a total of 2093 Italian Holstein proven bulls genotyped with 50K single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), with the objective of identifying loci associated with fertility related traits and to test their effects on milk production traits. The analysis was carried out using estimated breeding values for the aggregate fertility index and for each trait contributing to the index: angularity, calving interval, non-return rate at 56 days, days to first service, and 305 day first parity lactation. In addition, two production traits not included in the aggregate fertility index were analysed: fat yield and protein yield. Analyses were carried out using all SNPs treated separately, further the most significant marker on BTA14 associated to milk quality located in the DGAT1 region was treated as fixed effect. Genome wide association analysis identified 61 significant SNPs and 75 significant marker-trait associations. Eight additional SNP associations were detected when SNP located near DGAT1 was included as a fixed effect. As there were no obvious common SNPs between the traits analyzed independently in this study, a network analysis was carried out to identify unforeseen relationships that may link production and fertility traits. PMID:24265800
The more the heavier? Family size and childhood obesity in the U.S.

PubMed

Datar, Ashlesha

2017-05-01

Childhood obesity remains a top public health concern and understanding its drivers is important for combating this epidemic. Contemporaneous trends in declining family size and increasing childhood obesity in the U.S. suggest that family size may be a potential contributor, but limited evidence exists. Using data from a national sample of children in the U.S. this study examines whether family size, measured by the number of siblings a child has, is associated with child BMI and obesity, and the possible mechanisms at work. The potential endogeneity of family size is addressed by using several complementary approaches including sequentially introducing of a rich set of controls, subgroup analyses, and estimating school fixed-effects and child fixed-effects models. Results suggest that having more siblings is associated with significantly lower BMI and lower likelihood of obesity. Children with siblings have healthier diets and watch less television. Family mealtimes, less eating out, reduced maternal work, and increased adult supervision of children are potential mechanisms through which family size is protective of childhood obesity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Do competition and managed care improve quality?

PubMed

Sari, Nazmi

2002-10-01

In recent years, the US health care industry has experienced a rapid growth of managed care, formation of networks, and an integration of hospitals. This paper provides new insights about the quality consequences of this dynamic in US hospital markets. I empirically investigate the impact of managed care and hospital competition on quality using in-hospital complications as quality measures. I use random and fixed effects, and instrumental variable fixed effect models using hospital panel data from up to 16 states in the 1992-1997 period. The paper has two important findings: First, higher managed care penetration increases the quality, when inappropriate utilization, wound infections and adverse/iatrogenic complications are used as quality indicators. For other complication categories, coefficient estimates are statistically insignificant. These findings do not support the straightforward view that increases in managed care penetration are associated with decreases in quality. Second, both higher hospital market share and market concentration are associated with lower quality of care. Hospital mergers have undesirable quality consequences. Appropriate antitrust policies towards mergers should consider not only price and cost but also quality impacts. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Why does the Conductivity of a Nickel Catalyst Increase during Sulfidation? An Exemplary Study Using an In Operando Sensor Device.

PubMed

Fremerey, Peter; Jess, Andreas; Moos, Ralf

2015-10-23

In order to study the sulfidation of a catalyst fixed bed, an in operando single pellet sensor was designed. A catalyst pellet from the fixed bed was electrically contacted and its electrical response was correlated with the catalyst behavior. For the sulfidation tests, a nickel catalyst was used and was sulfidized with H₂S. This catalyst had a very low conductivity in the reduced state. During sulfidation, the conductivity of the catalyst increased by decades. A reaction from nickel to nickel sulfide occurred. This conductivity increase by decades during sulfidation had not been expected since both nickel and nickel sulfides behave metallic. Only by assuming a percolation phenomenon that originates from a volume increase of the nickel contacts when reacting to nickel sulfides, this effect can be explained. This assumption was supported by sulfidation tests with differently nickel loaded catalysts and it was quantitatively estimated by a general effective media theory. The single pellet sensor device for in operando investigation of sulfidation can be considered as a valuable tool to get further insights into catalysts under reaction conditions.
The effect of Cr, Co, Al, Mo and Ta on a series of cast Ni-base superalloys on the stability of an aluminide coating during cyclic oxidation in Mach 0.3 burner rig

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaplatynsky, I.; Barrett, C. A.

1986-01-01

The influence of varying the content of Co, Cr, Mo, Ta, and Al in a series of cast Ni-based gamma/gamma'superalloys on the behavior of aluminide coatings was studied in burner rig cyclic oxidation tests at 1100 C. The alloys had nominally fixed levels of Ti, W, Cb, Zr, C, and B. The alloy compositions were based on a full 2(sup 5)-fractional statistical design supplemented by 10 star point alloys and a center point alloy. This full central composite design of 43 alloys plus two additional alloys with extreme Al levels allowed a complete second degree estimating equation to be derived from the 5-compositional variables. The weight change/time data for the coated samples fitted well to the paralinear oxidation model and enabled a modified oxidation attack parameter, K'(sub a) to be derived to rank the alloys and log K' (sub a ) to be used as the dependent variable in the estimating equation to determine the oxidation resistance of the coating as a function of the underlying alloy content. The most protective aluminide coatings are associated with the highest possible base ally contents of CR and Al and at a 4 percent Ta level. The Mo and Co effects interact but at fixed levels of 0, 5, or 10% Co. A 4% Mo level is optimum.
A systematic review and meta-analysis on herpes zoster and the risk of cardiac and cerebrovascular events

PubMed Central

Erskine, Nathaniel; Tran, Hoang; Levin, Leonard; Ulbricht, Christine; Fingeroth, Joyce; Kiefe, Catarina; Singh, Sonal

2017-01-01

Background Patients who develop herpes zoster or herpes zoster ophthalmicus may be at risk for cerebrovascular and cardiac complications. We systematically reviewed the published literature to determine the association between herpes zoster and its subtypes with the occurrence of cerebrovascular and cardiac events. Methods/Results Systematic searches of PubMed (MEDLINE), SCOPUS (Embase) and Google Scholar were performed in December 2016. Eligible studies were cohort, case-control, and self-controlled case-series examining the association between herpes zoster or subtypes of herpes zoster with the occurrence of cerebrovascular and cardiac events including stroke, transient ischemic attack, coronary heart disease, and myocardial infarction. Data on the occurrence of the examined events were abstracted. Odds ratios and their accompanying confidence intervals were estimated using random and fixed effects models with statistical heterogeneity estimated with the I2 statistic. Twelve studies examining 7.9 million patients up to 28 years after the onset of herpes zoster met our pre-defined eligibility criteria. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses showed that herpes zoster, type unspecified, and herpes zoster ophthalmicus were associated with a significantly increased risk of cerebrovascular events, without any evidence of statistical heterogeneity. Our meta-analysis also found a significantly increased risk of cardiac events associated with herpes zoster, type unspecified. Conclusions Our results are consistent with the accumulating body of evidence that herpes zoster and herpes zoster ophthalmicus are significantly associated with cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events. PMID:28749981
A systematic review and meta-analysis on herpes zoster and the risk of cardiac and cerebrovascular events.

PubMed

Erskine, Nathaniel; Tran, Hoang; Levin, Leonard; Ulbricht, Christine; Fingeroth, Joyce; Kiefe, Catarina; Goldberg, Robert J; Singh, Sonal

2017-01-01

Patients who develop herpes zoster or herpes zoster ophthalmicus may be at risk for cerebrovascular and cardiac complications. We systematically reviewed the published literature to determine the association between herpes zoster and its subtypes with the occurrence of cerebrovascular and cardiac events. Systematic searches of PubMed (MEDLINE), SCOPUS (Embase) and Google Scholar were performed in December 2016. Eligible studies were cohort, case-control, and self-controlled case-series examining the association between herpes zoster or subtypes of herpes zoster with the occurrence of cerebrovascular and cardiac events including stroke, transient ischemic attack, coronary heart disease, and myocardial infarction. Data on the occurrence of the examined events were abstracted. Odds ratios and their accompanying confidence intervals were estimated using random and fixed effects models with statistical heterogeneity estimated with the I2 statistic. Twelve studies examining 7.9 million patients up to 28 years after the onset of herpes zoster met our pre-defined eligibility criteria. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses showed that herpes zoster, type unspecified, and herpes zoster ophthalmicus were associated with a significantly increased risk of cerebrovascular events, without any evidence of statistical heterogeneity. Our meta-analysis also found a significantly increased risk of cardiac events associated with herpes zoster, type unspecified. Our results are consistent with the accumulating body of evidence that herpes zoster and herpes zoster ophthalmicus are significantly associated with cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events.
Mixtures of Berkson and classical covariate measurement error in the linear mixed model: Bias analysis and application to a study on ultrafine particles.

PubMed

Deffner, Veronika; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Breitner, Susanne; Schneider, Alexandra; Cyrys, Josef; Peters, Annette

2018-05-01

The ultrafine particle measurements in the Augsburger Umweltstudie, a panel study conducted in Augsburg, Germany, exhibit measurement error from various sources. Measurements of mobile devices show classical possibly individual-specific measurement error; Berkson-type error, which may also vary individually, occurs, if measurements of fixed monitoring stations are used. The combination of fixed site and individual exposure measurements results in a mixture of the two error types. We extended existing bias analysis approaches to linear mixed models with a complex error structure including individual-specific error components, autocorrelated errors, and a mixture of classical and Berkson error. Theoretical considerations and simulation results show, that autocorrelation may severely change the attenuation of the effect estimations. Furthermore, unbalanced designs and the inclusion of confounding variables influence the degree of attenuation. Bias correction with the method of moments using data with mixture measurement error partially yielded better results compared to the usage of incomplete data with classical error. Confidence intervals (CIs) based on the delta method achieved better coverage probabilities than those based on Bootstrap samples. Moreover, we present the application of these new methods to heart rate measurements within the Augsburger Umweltstudie: the corrected effect estimates were slightly higher than their naive equivalents. The substantial measurement error of ultrafine particle measurements has little impact on the results. The developed methodology is generally applicable to longitudinal data with measurement error. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Sample size and classification error for Bayesian change-point models with unlabelled sub-groups and incomplete follow-up.

PubMed

White, Simon R; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Matthews, Fiona E

2018-05-01

Many medical (and ecological) processes involve the change of shape, whereby one trajectory changes into another trajectory at a specific time point. There has been little investigation into the study design needed to investigate these models. We consider the class of fixed effect change-point models with an underlying shape comprised two joined linear segments, also known as broken-stick models. We extend this model to include two sub-groups with different trajectories at the change-point, a change and no change class, and also include a missingness model to account for individuals with incomplete follow-up. Through a simulation study, we consider the relationship of sample size to the estimates of the underlying shape, the existence of a change-point, and the classification-error of sub-group labels. We use a Bayesian framework to account for the missing labels, and the analysis of each simulation is performed using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Our simulation study is inspired by cognitive decline as measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination, where our extended model is appropriate due to the commonly observed mixture of individuals within studies who do or do not exhibit accelerated decline. We find that even for studies of modest size ( n = 500, with 50 individuals observed past the change-point) in the fixed effect setting, a change-point can be detected and reliably estimated across a range of observation-errors.
Nearshore Measurements From a Small UAV.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, R. A.; Brodie, K. L.; Spore, N.

2016-02-01

Traditional measurements of nearshore hydrodynamics and evolving bathymetry are expensive and dangerous and must be frequently repeated to track the rapid changes of typical ocean beaches. However, extensive research into remote sensing methods using cameras or radars mounted on fixed towers has resulted in increasingly mature algorithms for estimating bathymetry, currents and wave characteristics. This naturally raises questions about how easily and effectively these algorithms can be applied to optical data from low-cost, easily-available UAV platforms. This paper will address the characteristics and quality of data taken from a small, low-cost UAV, the DJI Phantom. In particular, we will study the stability of imagery from a vehicle `parked' at 300 feet altitude, methods to stabilize remaining wander, and the quality of nearshore bathymetry estimates from the resulting image time series, computed using the cBathy algorithm. Estimates will be compared to ground truth surveys collected at the Field Research Facility at Duck, NC.
A thermal NO(x) prediction model - Scalar computation module for CFD codes with fluid and kinetic effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcbeath, Giorgio; Ghorashi, Bahman; Chun, Kue

1993-01-01

A thermal NO(x) prediction model is developed to interface with a CFD, k-epsilon based code. A converged solution from the CFD code is the input to the postprocessing model for prediction of thermal NO(x). The model uses a decoupled analysis to estimate the equilibrium level of (NO(x))e which is the constant rate limit. This value is used to estimate the flame (NO(x)) and in turn predict the rate of formation at each node using a two-step Zeldovich mechanism. The rate is fixed on the NO(x) production rate plot by estimating the time to reach equilibrium by a differential analysis based on the reaction: O + N2 = NO + N. The rate is integrated in the nonequilibrium time space based on the residence time at each node in the computational domain. The sum of all nodal predictions yields the total NO(x) level.
On the geodetic applications of simultaneous range-differencing to LAGEOS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pablis, E. C.

1982-01-01

The possibility of improving the accuracy of geodetic results by use of simultaneously observed ranges to Lageos, in a differencing mode, from pairs of stations was studied. Simulation tests show that model errors can be effectively minimized by simultaneous range differencing (SRD) for a rather broad class of network satellite pass configurations. The methods of least squares approximation are compared with monomials and Chebyshev polynomials and the cubic spline interpolation. Analysis of three types of orbital biases (radial, along- and across track) shows that radial biases are the ones most efficiently minimized in the SRC mode. The degree to which the other two can be minimized depends on the type of parameters under estimation and the geometry of the problem. Sensitivity analyses of the SRD observation show that for baseline length estimations the most useful data are those collected in a direction parallel to the baseline and at a low elevation. Estimating individual baseline lengths with respect to an assumed but fixed orbit not only decreases the cost, but it further reduces the effects of model biases on the results as opposed to a network solution. Analogous results and conclusions are obtained for the estimates of the coordinates of the pole.
Unbiased estimators for spatial distribution functions of classical fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adib, Artur B.; Jarzynski, Christopher

2005-01-01

We use a statistical-mechanical identity closely related to the familiar virial theorem, to derive unbiased estimators for spatial distribution functions of classical fluids. In particular, we obtain estimators for both the fluid density ρ(r) in the vicinity of a fixed solute and the pair correlation g(r) of a homogeneous classical fluid. We illustrate the utility of our estimators with numerical examples, which reveal advantages over traditional histogram-based methods of computing such distributions.
On Estimation of the Survivor Average Causal Effect in Observational Studies when Important Confounders are Missing Due to Death

PubMed Central

Egleston, Brian L.; Scharfstein, Daniel O.; MacKenzie, Ellen

2008-01-01

We focus on estimation of the causal effect of treatment on the functional status of individuals at a fixed point in time t* after they have experienced a catastrophic event, from observational data with the following features: (1) treatment is imposed shortly after the event and is non-randomized, (2) individuals who survive to t* are scheduled to be interviewed, (3) there is interview non-response, (4) individuals who die prior to t* are missing information on pre-event confounders, (5) medical records are abstracted on all individuals to obtain information on post-event, pre-treatment confounding factors. To address the issue of survivor bias, we seek to estimate the survivor average causal effect (SACE), the effect of treatment on functional status among the cohort of individuals who would survive to t* regardless of whether or not assigned to treatment. To estimate this effect from observational data, we need to impose untestable assumptions, which depend on the collection of all confounding factors. Since pre-event information is missing on those who die prior to t*, it is unlikely that these data are missing at random (MAR). We introduce a sensitivity analysis methodology to evaluate the robustness of SACE inferences to deviations from the MAR assumption. We apply our methodology to the evaluation of the effect of trauma center care on vitality outcomes using data from the National Study on Costs and Outcomes of Trauma Care. PMID:18759833
The impact of an unconditional tax credit for families on self-rated health in adults: further evidence from the cohort study of 6900 New Zealanders.

PubMed

Pega, Frank; Carter, Kristie; Kawachi, Ichiro; Davis, Peter; Blakely, Tony

2014-05-01

It is hypothesized that unconditional (given without obligation) publicly funded financial credits more effectively improve health than conditional financial credits in high-income countries. We previously reported no discernible short-term impact of an employment-conditional tax credit for families on self-rated health (SRH) in adults in New Zealand. This study estimates the effect of an unconditional tax credit for families, called Family Tax Credit (FTC), on SRH in the same study population and setting. A balanced panel of 6900 adults in families was extracted from seven waves (2002-2009) of the Survey of Family, Income and Employment. The exposures, eligibility for and amount of FTC, were derived by applying government eligibility and entitlement criteria. The outcome, SRH, was collected annually. Fixed effects regression analyses eliminated all time-invariant confounding and adjusted for measured time-varying confounders. Becoming eligible for FTC was associated with a small and statistically insignificant change in SRH over the past year [effect estimate: 0.013; 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.011 to 0.037], as was an increase in the estimated amount of FTC by $1000 (effect estimate: -0.001; 95% CI -0.006 to 0.004). The unconditional tax credit for families had no discernible short-term impact on SRH in adults in New Zealand. It did not more effectively improve health status than an employment-conditional tax credit for families. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Breastfeeding and intelligence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Horta, Bernardo L; Loret de Mola, Christian; Victora, Cesar G

2015-12-01

This study was aimed at systematically reviewing evidence of the association between breastfeeding and performance in intelligence tests. Two independent searches were carried out using Medline, LILACS, SCIELO and Web of Science. Studies restricted to infants and those where estimates were not adjusted for stimulation or interaction at home were excluded. Fixed- and random-effects models were used to pool the effect estimates, and a random-effects regression was used to assess potential sources of heterogeneity. We included 17 studies with 18 estimates of the relationship between breastfeeding and performance in intelligence tests. In a random-effects model, breastfed subjects achieved a higher IQ [mean difference: 3.44 points (95% confidence interval: 2.30; 4.58)]. We found no evidence of publication bias. Studies that controlled for maternal IQ showed a smaller benefit from breastfeeding [mean difference 2.62 points (95% confidence interval: 1.25; 3.98)]. In the meta-regression, none of the study characteristics explained the heterogeneity among the studies. Breastfeeding is related to improved performance in intelligence tests. A positive effect of breastfeeding on cognition was also observed in a randomised trial. This suggests that the association is causal. ©2015 The Authors. Acta Paediatrica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Foundation Acta Paediatrica.
Fourier analysis of multitracer cosmological surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramo, L. Raul; Secco, Lucas F.; Loureiro, Arthur

2016-02-01

We present optimal quadratic estimators for the Fourier analysis of cosmological surveys that detect several different types of tracers of large-scale structure. Our estimators can be used to simultaneously fit the matter power spectrum and the biases of the tracers - as well as redshift-space distortions (RSDs), non-Gaussianities (NGs), or any other effects that are manifested through differences between the clusterings of distinct species of tracers. Our estimators reduce to the one by Feldman, Kaiser & Peacock (FKP) in the case of a survey consisting of a single species of tracer. We show that the multitracer estimators are unbiased, and that their covariance is given by the inverse of the multitracer Fisher matrix. When the biases, RSDs and NGs are fixed to their fiducial values, and one is only interested in measuring the underlying power spectrum, our estimators are projected into the estimator found by Percival, Verde & Peacock. We have tested our estimators on simple (lognormal) simulated galaxy maps, and we show that it performs as expected, being either equivalent or superior to the FKP method in all cases we analysed. Finally, we have shown how to extend the multitracer technique to include the one-halo term of the power spectrum.
Estimating the effect of immortal-time bias in urological research: a case example of testosterone-replacement therapy.

PubMed

Wallis, Christopher J D; Saskin, Refik; Narod, Steven A; Law, Calvin; Kulkarni, Girish S; Seth, Arun; Nam, Robert K

2017-10-01

To quantify the effect of immortal-time bias in an observational study examining the effect of cumulative testosterone exposure on mortality. We used a population-based matched cohort study of men aged ≥66 years, newly treated with testosterone-replacement therapy (TRT), and matched-controls from 2007 to 2012 in Ontario, Canada to quantify the effects of immortal-time bias. We used generalised estimating equations to determine the association between cumulative TRT exposure and mortality. Results produced by models using time-fixed and time-varying exposures were compared. Further, we undertook a systematic review of PubMed to identify studies addressing immortal-time bias or time-varying exposures in the urological literature and qualitatively summated these. Among 10 311 TRT-exposed men and 28 029 controls, the use of a time-varying exposure resulted in the attenuation of treatment effects compared with an analysis that did not account for immortal-time bias. While both analyses showed a decreased risk of death for patients in the highest tertile of TRT exposure, the effect was overestimated when using a time-fixed analysis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52-0.61) when compared to a time-varying analysis (aHR 0.67, 95% CI: 0.62-0.73). Of the 1 241 studies employing survival analysis identified in the literature, nine manuscripts met criteria for inclusion. Of these, five used a time-varying analytical method. Each of these was a large, population-based retrospective cohort study assessing potential harms of pharmacological agents. Where exposures vary over time, a time-varying exposure is necessary to draw meaningful conclusions. Failure to use a time-varying analysis will result in overestimation of a beneficial effect. However, time-varying exposures are uncommonly utilised among manuscripts published in prominent urological journals. © 2017 The Authors BJU International © 2017 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Distributed Generation Renewable Energy Estimate of Costs | Energy Analysis

Science.gov Websites

viability. Table 1 Costs for Electric Generating Technologies Technology Type Mean installed cost ($/kW ) Installed cost Std. Dev. (+/- $/kW) Fixed O&M ($/kW-yr) Fixed O&M Std. Dev. (+/- $/kW-yr) Variable O cost ($/kWh) Fuel and/or water Std. Dev. ($/kWh) PV <10 kW $3,897 $889 $21 $20 n/a n/a 33 11 n/a n/a
Distributed Generation Renewable Energy Estimate of Costs | Energy Analysis

Science.gov Websites

viability. Table 1 Costs for Electric Generating Technologies Technology Type Mean installed cost ($/kW ) Installed cost Std. Dev. (+/- $/kW) Fixed O&M ($/kW-yr) Fixed O&M Std. Dev. (+/- $/kW-yr) Variable O cost ($/kWh) Fuel and/or water Std. Dev. ($/kWh) PV <10 kW $3,910 $921 $21 $20 n/a n/a 33 11 n/a n/a

Lensing bias to CMB measurements of compensated isocurvature perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinrich, Chen He; Grin, Daniel; Hu, Wayne

2016-08-01

Compensated isocurvature perturbations (CIPs) are modes in which the baryon and dark matter density fluctuations cancel. They arise in the curvaton scenario as well as some models of baryogenesis. While they leave no observable effects on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at linear order, they do spatially modulate two-point CMB statistics and can be reconstructed in a manner similar to gravitational lensing. Due to the similarity between the effects of CMB lensing and CIPs, lensing contributes nearly Gaussian random noise to the CIP estimator that approximately doubles the reconstruction noise power. Additionally, the cross correlation between lensing and the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect generates a correlation between the CIP estimator and the temperature field even in the absence of a correlated CIP signal. For cosmic-variance limited temperature measurements out to multipoles l ≤2500 , subtracting a fixed lensing bias degrades the detection threshold for CIPs by a factor of 1.3, whether or not they are correlated with the adiabatic mode.
WIC in Your Neighborhood: New Evidence on the Impacts of Geographic Access to Clinics

PubMed Central

Rossin-Slater, Maya

2013-01-01

A large body of evidence indicates that conditions in-utero and health at birth matter for individuals’ long-run outcomes, suggesting potential value in programs aimed at pregnant women and young children. This paper uses a novel identification strategy and data from birth and administrative records over 2005–2009 to provide causal estimates of the effects of geographic access to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). My empirical approach uses within-ZIP-code variation in WIC clinic presence together with maternal fixed effects, and accounts for the potential endogeneity of mobility, gestational-age bias, and measurement error in gestation. I find that access to WIC increases food benefit take-up, pregnancy weight gain, birth weight, and the probability of breastfeeding initiation at the time of hospital discharge. The estimated effects are strongest for mothers with a high school education or less, who are most likely eligible for WIC services. PMID:24043906
Tethered lives: A couple-based perspective on the consequences of parenthood for time use, occupation, and wages.

PubMed

Killewald, Alexandra; García-Manglano, Javier

2016-11-01

Prior research on parenthood effects has typically used single-sex models and estimated average effects. By contrast, we estimate population-level variability in partners' changes in housework hours, paid work hours, occupation traits, and wages after becoming parents, and we explore whether one partner's adjustment offsets or supplements the other's. We find tradeoffs between spouses on paid work adjustments to parenthood, but complementarity in adjustments to housework hours, occupation traits, and wages. The effect of parenthood on wives' behaviors is larger and more variable than on husbands' behaviors in every domain. The modest variation between husbands in work responses to parenthood explains little of the variation in the motherhood penalty, while variation in wives' own behaviors plays a larger role. We refer to this pattern as tethered autonomy: variation across American couples in work responses to parenthood is shaped primarily by variation in wives' adjustments, while husbands' work acts largely as a fixed point. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Fracture Surface Analysis of Clinically Failed Fixed Partial Dentures

PubMed Central

Taskonak, B.; Mecholsky, J.J.; Anusavice, K.J.

2008-01-01

Ceramic systems have limited long-term fracture resistance, especially when they are used in posterior areas or for fixed partial dentures. The objective of this study was to determine the site of crack initiation and the causes of fracture of clinically failed ceramic fixed partial dentures. Six Empress 2® lithia-disilicate (Li2O·2SiO2)-based veneered bridges and 7 experimental lithia-disilicate-based non-veneered ceramic bridges were retrieved and analyzed. Fractography and fracture mechanics methods were used to estimate the stresses at failure in 6 bridges (50%) whose fracture initiated from the occlusal surface of the connectors. Fracture of 1 non-veneered bridge (8%) initiated within the gingival surface of the connector. Three veneered bridges fractured within the veneer layers. Failure stresses of the all-core fixed partial dentures ranged from 107 to 161 MPa. Failure stresses of the veneered fixed partial dentures ranged from 19 to 68 MPa. We conclude that fracture initiation sites are controlled primarily by contact damage. PMID:16498078
Establishment of the Co-C Eutectic Fixed-Point Cell for Thermocouple Calibrations at NIMT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongrai, O.; Elliott, C. J.

2017-08-01

In 2015, NIMT first established a Co-C eutectic temperature reference (fixed-point) cell measurement capability for thermocouple calibration to support the requirements of Thailand's heavy industries and secondary laboratories. The Co-C eutectic fixed-point cell is a facility transferred from NPL, where the design was developed through European and UK national measurement system projects. In this paper, we describe the establishment of a Co-C eutectic fixed-point cell for thermocouple calibration at NIMT. This paper demonstrates achievement of the required furnace uniformity, the Co-C plateau realization and the comparison data between NIMT and NPL Co-C cells by using the same standard Pt/Pd thermocouple, demonstrating traceability. The NIMT measurement capability for noble metal type thermocouples at the new Co-C eutectic fixed point (1324.06°C) is estimated to be within ± 0.60 K (k=2). This meets the needs of Thailand's high-temperature thermocouple users—for which previously there has been no traceable calibration facility.
Validation on flight data of a closed-loop approach for GPS-based relative navigation of LEO satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tancredi, U.; Renga, A.; Grassi, M.

2013-05-01

This paper describes a carrier-phase differential GPS approach for real-time relative navigation of LEO satellites flying in formation with large separations. These applications are characterized indeed by a highly varying number of GPS satellites in common view and large ionospheric differential errors, which significantly impact relative navigation performance and robustness. To achieve high relative positioning accuracy a navigation algorithm is proposed which processes double-difference code and carrier measurements on two frequencies, to fully exploit the integer nature of the related ambiguities. Specifically, a closed-loop scheme is proposed in which fixed estimates of the baseline and integer ambiguities produced by means of a partial integer fixing step are fed back to an Extended Kalman Filter for improving the float estimate at successive time instants. The approach also benefits from the inclusion in the filter state of the differential ionospheric delay in terms of the Vertical Total Electron Content of each satellite. The navigation algorithm performance is tested on actual flight data from GRACE mission. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in managing integer unknowns in conjunction with Extended Kalman Filtering, and that centimeter-level accuracy can be achieved in real-time also with large separations.
Genome-Wide Association Studies with a Genomic Relationship Matrix: A Case Study with Wheat and Arabidopsis

PubMed Central

Gianola, Daniel; Fariello, Maria I.; Naya, Hugo; Schön, Chris-Carolin

2016-01-01

Standard genome-wide association studies (GWAS) scan for relationships between each of p molecular markers and a continuously distributed target trait. Typically, a marker-based matrix of genomic similarities among individuals (G) is constructed, to account more properly for the covariance structure in the linear regression model used. We show that the generalized least-squares estimator of the regression of phenotype on one or on m markers is invariant with respect to whether or not the marker(s) tested is(are) used for building G, provided variance components are unaffected by exclusion of such marker(s) from G. The result is arrived at by using a matrix expression such that one can find many inverses of genomic relationship, or of phenotypic covariance matrices, stemming from removing markers tested as fixed, but carrying out a single inversion. When eigenvectors of the genomic relationship matrix are used as regressors with fixed regression coefficients, e.g., to account for population stratification, their removal from G does matter. Removal of eigenvectors from G can have a noticeable effect on estimates of genomic and residual variances, so caution is needed. Concepts were illustrated using genomic data on 599 wheat inbred lines, with grain yield as target trait, and on close to 200 Arabidopsis thaliana accessions. PMID:27520956
Persistent and contemporaneous effects of job stressors on mental health: a study testing multiple analytic approaches across 13 waves of annually collected cohort data.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; Aitken, Zoe; Kavanagh, Anne; LaMontagne, Anthony D; Petrie, Dennis

2016-11-01

This study investigated the extent that psychosocial job stressors had lasting effects on a scaled measure of mental health. We applied econometric approaches to a longitudinal cohort to: (1) control for unmeasured individual effects; (2) assess the role of prior (lagged) exposures of job stressors on mental health and (3) the persistence of mental health. We used a panel study with 13 annual waves and applied fixed-effects, first-difference and fixed-effects Arellano-Bond models. The Short Form 36 (SF-36) Mental Health Component Summary score was the outcome variable and the key exposures included: job control, job demands, job insecurity and fairness of pay. Results from the Arellano-Bond models suggest that greater fairness of pay (β-coefficient 0.34, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.45), job control (β-coefficient 0.15, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.20) and job security (β-coefficient 0.37, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.42) were contemporaneously associated with better mental health. Similar results were found for the fixed-effects and first-difference models. The Arellano-Bond model also showed persistent effects of individual mental health, whereby individuals' previous reports of mental health were related to their reporting in subsequent waves. The estimated long-run impact of job demands on mental health increased after accounting for time-related dynamics, while there were more minimal impacts for the other job stressor variables. Our results showed that the majority of the effects of psychosocial job stressors on a scaled measure of mental health are contemporaneous except for job demands where accounting for the lagged dynamics was important. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
The "Tracked Roaming Transect" and distance sampling methods increase the efficiency of underwater visual censuses.

PubMed

Irigoyen, Alejo J; Rojo, Irene; Calò, Antonio; Trobbiani, Gastón; Sánchez-Carnero, Noela; García-Charton, José A

2018-01-01

Underwater visual census (UVC) is the most common approach for estimating diversity, abundance and size of reef fishes in shallow and clear waters. Abundance estimation through UVC is particularly problematic in species occurring at low densities and/or highly aggregated because of their high variability at both spatial and temporal scales. The statistical power of experiments involving UVC techniques may be increased by augmenting the number of replicates or the area surveyed. In this work we present and test the efficiency of an UVC method based on diver towed GPS, the Tracked Roaming Transect (TRT), designed to maximize transect length (and thus the surveyed area) with respect to diving time invested in monitoring, as compared to Conventional Strip Transects (CST). Additionally, we analyze the effect of increasing transect width and length on the precision of density estimates by comparing TRT vs. CST methods using different fixed widths of 6 and 20 m (FW3 and FW10, respectively) and the Distance Sampling (DS) method, in which perpendicular distance of each fish or group of fishes to the transect line is estimated by divers up to 20 m from the transect line. The TRT was 74% more time and cost efficient than the CST (all transect widths considered together) and, for a given time, the use of TRT and/or increasing the transect width increased the precision of density estimates. In addition, since with the DS method distances of fishes to the transect line have to be estimated, and not measured directly as in terrestrial environments, errors in estimations of perpendicular distances can seriously affect DS density estimations. To assess the occurrence of distance estimation errors and their dependence on the observer's experience, a field experiment using wooden fish models was performed. We tested the precision and accuracy of density estimators based on fixed widths and the DS method. The accuracy of the estimates was measured comparing the actual total abundance with those estimated by divers using FW3, FW10, and DS estimators. Density estimates differed by 13% (range 0.1-31%) from the actual values (average = 13.09%; median = 14.16%). Based on our results we encourage the use of the Tracked Roaming Transect with Distance Sampling (TRT+DS) method for improving density estimates of species occurring at low densities and/or highly aggregated, as well as for exploratory rapid-assessment surveys in which divers could gather spatial ecological and ecosystem information on large areas during UVC.
The "Tracked Roaming Transect" and distance sampling methods increase the efficiency of underwater visual censuses

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Underwater visual census (UVC) is the most common approach for estimating diversity, abundance and size of reef fishes in shallow and clear waters. Abundance estimation through UVC is particularly problematic in species occurring at low densities and/or highly aggregated because of their high variability at both spatial and temporal scales. The statistical power of experiments involving UVC techniques may be increased by augmenting the number of replicates or the area surveyed. In this work we present and test the efficiency of an UVC method based on diver towed GPS, the Tracked Roaming Transect (TRT), designed to maximize transect length (and thus the surveyed area) with respect to diving time invested in monitoring, as compared to Conventional Strip Transects (CST). Additionally, we analyze the effect of increasing transect width and length on the precision of density estimates by comparing TRT vs. CST methods using different fixed widths of 6 and 20 m (FW3 and FW10, respectively) and the Distance Sampling (DS) method, in which perpendicular distance of each fish or group of fishes to the transect line is estimated by divers up to 20 m from the transect line. The TRT was 74% more time and cost efficient than the CST (all transect widths considered together) and, for a given time, the use of TRT and/or increasing the transect width increased the precision of density estimates. In addition, since with the DS method distances of fishes to the transect line have to be estimated, and not measured directly as in terrestrial environments, errors in estimations of perpendicular distances can seriously affect DS density estimations. To assess the occurrence of distance estimation errors and their dependence on the observer’s experience, a field experiment using wooden fish models was performed. We tested the precision and accuracy of density estimators based on fixed widths and the DS method. The accuracy of the estimates was measured comparing the actual total abundance with those estimated by divers using FW3, FW10, and DS estimators. Density estimates differed by 13% (range 0.1–31%) from the actual values (average = 13.09%; median = 14.16%). Based on our results we encourage the use of the Tracked Roaming Transect with Distance Sampling (TRT+DS) method for improving density estimates of species occurring at low densities and/or highly aggregated, as well as for exploratory rapid-assessment surveys in which divers could gather spatial ecological and ecosystem information on large areas during UVC. PMID:29324887
Topogram-based tube current modulation of head computed tomography for optimizing image quality while protecting the eye lens with shielding.

PubMed

Lin, Ming-Fang; Chen, Chia-Yuen; Lee, Yuan-Hao; Li, Chia-Wei; Gerweck, Leo E; Wang, Hao; Chan, Wing P

2018-01-01

Background Multiple rounds of head computed tomography (CT) scans increase the risk of radiation-induced lens opacification. Purpose To investigate the effects of CT eye shielding and topogram-based tube current modulation (TCM) on the radiation dose received by the lens and the image quality of nasal and periorbital imaging. Material and Methods An anthropomorphic phantom was CT-scanned using either automatic tube current modulation or a fixed tube current. The lens radiation dose was estimated using cropped Gafchromic films irradiated with or without a shield over the orbit. Image quality, assessed using regions of interest drawn on the bilateral extraorbital areas and the nasal bone with a water-based marker, was evaluated using both a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and contrast-noise ratio (CNR). Two CT specialists independently assessed image artifacts using a three-point Likert scale. Results The estimated radiation dose received by the lens was significantly lower when barium sulfate or bismuth-antimony shields were used in conjunction with a fixed tube current (22.0% and 35.6% reduction, respectively). Topogram-based TCM mitigated the beam hardening-associated artifacts of bismuth-antimony and barium sulfate shields. This increased the SNR by 21.6% in the extraorbital region and the CNR by 7.2% between the nasal bones and extraorbital regions. The combination of topogram-based TCM and barium sulfate or bismuth-antimony shields reduced lens doses by 12.2% and 27.2%, respectively. Conclusion Image artifacts induced by the bismuth-antimony shield at a fixed tube current for lenticular radioprotection were significantly reduced by topogram-based TCM, which increased the SNR of the anthropomorphic nasal bones and periorbital tissues.
Latency Determination and Compensation in Real-Time Gnss/ins Integrated Navigation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, P. D.; Wang, J.; Rizos, C.

2011-09-01

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology is now commonplace in many defence and civilian environments. However, the high cost of owning and operating a sophisticated UAV has slowed their adoption in many commercial markets. Universities and research groups are actively experimenting with UAVs to further develop the technology, particularly for automated flying operations. The two main UAV platforms used are fixed-wing and helicopter. Helicopter-based UAVs offer many attractive features over fixed-wing UAVs, including vertical take-off, the ability to loiter, and highly dynamic flight. However the control and navigation of helicopters are significantly more demanding than those of fixed-wing UAVs and as such require a high bandwidth real-time Position, Velocity, Attitude (PVA) navigation system. In practical Real-Time Navigation Systems (RTNS) there are delays in the processing of the GNSS data prior to the fusion of the GNSS data with the INS measurements. This latency must be compensated for otherwise it degrades the solution of the navigation filter. This paper investigates the effect of latency in the arrival time of the GNSS data in a RTNS. Several test drives and flights were conducted with a low-cost RTNS, and compared with a high quality GNSS/INS solution. A technique for the real-time, automated and accurate estimation of the GNSS latency in low-cost systems was developed and tested. The latency estimates were then verified through cross-correlation with the time-stamped measurements from the reference system. A delayed measurement Extended Kalman Filter was then used to allow for the real-time fusing of the delayed measurements, and then a final system developed for on-the-fly measurement and compensation of GNSS latency in a RTNS.
Corruption of accuracy and efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by inaccurate numerical implementation of conceptual hydrologic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoups, G.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fenicia, F.; van de Giesen, N. C.

2010-10-01

Conceptual rainfall-runoff models have traditionally been applied without paying much attention to numerical errors induced by temporal integration of water balance dynamics. Reliance on first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods leads to computationally cheap simulation models that are easy to implement. Computational speed is especially desirable for estimating parameter and predictive uncertainty using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Confirming earlier work of Kavetski et al. (2003), we show here that the computational speed of first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods comes at a cost: for a case study with a spatially lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, it introduces artificial bimodality in the marginal posterior parameter distributions, which is not present in numerically accurate implementations of the same model. The resulting effects on MCMC simulation include (1) inconsistent estimates of posterior parameter and predictive distributions, (2) poor performance and slow convergence of the MCMC algorithm, and (3) unreliable convergence diagnosis using the Gelman-Rubin statistic. We studied several alternative numerical implementations to remedy these problems, including various adaptive-step finite difference schemes and an operator splitting method. Our results show that adaptive-step, second-order methods, based on either explicit finite differencing or operator splitting with analytical integration, provide the best alternative for accurate and efficient MCMC simulation. Fixed-step or adaptive-step implicit methods may also be used for increased accuracy, but they cannot match the efficiency of adaptive-step explicit finite differencing or operator splitting. Of the latter two, explicit finite differencing is more generally applicable and is preferred if the individual hydrologic flux laws cannot be integrated analytically, as the splitting method then loses its advantage.
Characterization of interfragmentary motion associated with common osteosynthesis devices for rat fracture healing studies.

PubMed

Meyers, Nicholaus; Sukopp, Matthias; Jäger, Rudolf; Steiner, Malte; Matthys, Romano; Lapatki, Bernd; Ignatius, Anita; Claes, Lutz

2017-01-01

Rat models are widely used in preclinical studies investigating fracture healing. The interfragmentary movement at a fracture site is critical to the course of healing and therefore demands definition in order to aptly interpret the experimental results. Estimation of this movement requires knowledge of the fixation stiffness and loading. The characteristic loading for the rat femur has been estimated, but the stiffness of fixation used in rat studies has yet to be fully described. This study aimed to determine the 6 degree of freedom stiffness of four commonly used implants, two external fixators (RatExFix and UlmExFix), a locking plate, and a locking intramedullary nail, in all degrees of freedom and estimate the interfragmentary movement under specific physiological loads. The external fixator systems allow the greatest movement. Mounted 45° anterolateral on the femur, the RatExFix allows an average of 0.88 mm of motion in each anatomic direction while the stiffer UlmExFix allows about 0.6 mm of motion. The nail is far stiffer than the other implants investigated while the plate allows movement of an intermediate magnitude. Both the nail and plate demonstrate higher axial than shear stiffness. The relatively large standard deviations in external fixator shear motion imply strong dependence on bone axis alignment across the gap and the precise orientation of the specimen relative to the loading. The smaller standard deviation associated with the nail and plate results from improved alignment and minimization of the influence of rotational positioning of the specimen due to the reduced implant eccentricity relative to the specimen axis. These results show that the interfragmentary movement is complex and varies significantly between fixation devices but establishes a baseline for the evaluation of the results of different studies.
Characterization of interfragmentary motion associated with common osteosynthesis devices for rat fracture healing studies

PubMed Central

Steiner, Malte; Matthys, Romano; Lapatki, Bernd; Ignatius, Anita; Claes, Lutz

2017-01-01

Rat models are widely used in preclinical studies investigating fracture healing. The interfragmentary movement at a fracture site is critical to the course of healing and therefore demands definition in order to aptly interpret the experimental results. Estimation of this movement requires knowledge of the fixation stiffness and loading. The characteristic loading for the rat femur has been estimated, but the stiffness of fixation used in rat studies has yet to be fully described. This study aimed to determine the 6 degree of freedom stiffness of four commonly used implants, two external fixators (RatExFix and UlmExFix), a locking plate, and a locking intramedullary nail, in all degrees of freedom and estimate the interfragmentary movement under specific physiological loads. The external fixator systems allow the greatest movement. Mounted 45° anterolateral on the femur, the RatExFix allows an average of 0.88 mm of motion in each anatomic direction while the stiffer UlmExFix allows about 0.6 mm of motion. The nail is far stiffer than the other implants investigated while the plate allows movement of an intermediate magnitude. Both the nail and plate demonstrate higher axial than shear stiffness. The relatively large standard deviations in external fixator shear motion imply strong dependence on bone axis alignment across the gap and the precise orientation of the specimen relative to the loading. The smaller standard deviation associated with the nail and plate results from improved alignment and minimization of the influence of rotational positioning of the specimen due to the reduced implant eccentricity relative to the specimen axis. These results show that the interfragmentary movement is complex and varies significantly between fixation devices but establishes a baseline for the evaluation of the results of different studies. PMID:28453556
Dose Estimating Application Software Modification: Additional Function of a Size-Specific Effective Dose Calculator and Auto Exposure Control.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Masanao; Asada, Yasuki; Matsubara, Kosuke; Suzuki, Shouichi; Matsunaga, Yuta; Haba, Tomonobu; Kawaguchi, Ai; Daioku, Tomihiko; Toyama, Hiroshi; Kato, Ryoichi

2017-05-01

Adequate dose management during computed tomography is important. In the present study, the dosimetric application software ImPACT was added to a functional calculator of the size-specific dose estimate and was part of the scan settings for the auto exposure control (AEC) technique. This study aimed to assess the practicality and accuracy of the modified ImPACT software for dose estimation. We compared the conversion factors identified by the software with the values reported by the American Association of Physicists in Medicine Task Group 204, and we noted similar results. Moreover, doses were calculated with the AEC technique and a fixed-tube current of 200 mA for the chest-pelvis region. The modified ImPACT software could estimate each organ dose, which was based on the modulated tube current. The ability to perform beneficial modifications indicates the flexibility of the ImPACT software. The ImPACT software can be further modified for estimation of other doses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Reliability of environmental sampling culture results using the negative binomial intraclass correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Aly, Sharif S; Zhao, Jianyang; Li, Ben; Jiang, Jiming

2014-01-01

The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is commonly used to estimate the similarity between quantitative measures obtained from different sources. Overdispersed data is traditionally transformed so that linear mixed model (LMM) based ICC can be estimated. A common transformation used is the natural logarithm. The reliability of environmental sampling of fecal slurry on freestall pens has been estimated for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis using the natural logarithm transformed culture results. Recently, the negative binomial ICC was defined based on a generalized linear mixed model for negative binomial distributed data. The current study reports on the negative binomial ICC estimate which includes fixed effects using culture results of environmental samples. Simulations using a wide variety of inputs and negative binomial distribution parameters (r; p) showed better performance of the new negative binomial ICC compared to the ICC based on LMM even when negative binomial data was logarithm, and square root transformed. A second comparison that targeted a wider range of ICC values showed that the mean of estimated ICC closely approximated the true ICC.
Life satisfaction, QALYs, and the monetary value of health.

PubMed

Huang, Li; Frijters, Paul; Dalziel, Kim; Clarke, Philip

2018-06-18

The monetary value of a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) is frequently used to assess the benefits of health interventions and inform funding decisions. However, there is little consensus on methods for the estimation of this monetary value. In this study, we use life satisfaction as an indicator of 'experienced utility', and estimate the dollar equivalent value of a QALY using a fixed effect model with instrumental variable estimators. Using a nationally-representative longitudinal survey including 28,347 individuals followed during 2002-2015 in Australia, we estimate that individual's willingness to pay for one QALY is approximately A$42,000-A$67,000, and the willingness to pay for not having a long-term condition approximately A$2000 per year. As the estimates are derived using population-level data and a wellbeing measurement of life satisfaction, the approach has the advantage of being socially inclusive and recognizes the significant meaning of people's subjective valuations of health. The method could be particularly useful for nations where QALY thresholds are not yet validated or established. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Improving software quality - The use of formal inspections at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bush, Marilyn

1990-01-01

The introduction of software formal inspections (Fagan Inspections) at JPL for finding and fixing defects early in the software development life cycle are reviewed. It is estimated that, by the year 2000, some software efforts will rise to as much as 80 percent of the total. Software problems are especially important at NASA as critical flight software must be error-free. It is shown that formal inspections are particularly effective at finding and removing defects having to do with clarity, correctness, consistency, and completeness. A very significant discovery was that code audits were not as effective at finding defects as code inspections.
HMO Penetration, Hospital Competition, and Growth of Ambulatory Surgery Centers

PubMed Central

Bian, John; Morrisey, Michael A.

2006-01-01

Using metropolitan statistical area (MSA) panel data from 1992-2001 constructed from the 2002 Medicare Online Survey Certification and Reporting (OSCAR) System, we estimate the market effects of health maintenance organization (HMO) penetration and hospital competition on the growth of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs). Our regression models with MSA and year fixed effects suggest that a 10-percentage-point increase in HMO penetration is associated with a decrease of 3 ASCs per 1 million population. A decrease from 5 to 4 equal-market-shared hospitals in a market is associated with an increase of 2.5 ASCs per 1 million population. PMID:17290661

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