Is Air War College Teaching the Right Leadership Skill Sets?

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-02-15

Following are the skill sets for strategic leaders: • Critical Thinking (includes Conceptual Competence/ Decision Making / Strategic Thinking... Decision Making / Strategic Thinking) • Creative Thinking (includes Conceptual Flexibility) • Integrating internal and external environments • Long Range... Making / Strategic Thinking Yes Integrating Internal and External Environments Yes Long Range Vision Yes Team Performance Facilitation/Team Building

Academic Decision Making: Faculty Appointments and Reappointments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Renner, K. Edward

1987-01-01

The rapidly rising costs of the academic salary budget and the lack of flexibility for making new academic appointments or for reallocating resources to new and emerging educational demands are discussed. Personnel decisions made in the Faculty of Arts and Science at Dalhousie University are described. (MLW)

Conflict between Place and Response Navigation Strategies: Effects on Vicarious Trial and Error (VTE) Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidt, Brandy; Papale, Andrew; Redish, A. David; Markus, Etan J.

2013-01-01

Navigation can be accomplished through multiple decision-making strategies, using different information-processing computations. A well-studied dichotomy in these decision-making strategies compares hippocampal-dependent "place" and dorsal-lateral striatal dependent "response" strategies. A place strategy depends on the ability to flexibly respond…

Sharing intelligence: Decision-making interactions between users and software in MAESTRO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geoffroy, Amy L.; Gohring, John R.; Britt, Daniel L.

1991-01-01

By combining the best of automated and human decision-making in scheduling many advantages can accrue. The joint performance of the user and system is potentially much better than either alone. Features of the MAESTRO scheduling system serve to illustrate concepts of user/software cooperation. MAESTRO may be operated at a user-determinable and dynamic level of autonomy. Because the system allows so much flexibility in the allocation of decision-making responsibilities, and provides users with a wealth of information and other support for their own decision-making, better overall schedules may result.

Behavioral Flexibility and Response Selection Are Impaired after Limited Exposure to Oxycodone

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seip-Cammack, Katharine M.; Shapiro, Matthew L.

2014-01-01

Behavioral flexibility allows individuals to adapt to situations in which rewards and goals change. Potentially addictive drugs may impair flexible decision-making by altering brain mechanisms that compute reward expectancies, thereby facilitating maladaptive drug use. To investigate this hypothesis, we tested the effects of oxycodone exposure on…

Strategic control in decision-making under uncertainty.

PubMed

Venkatraman, Vinod; Huettel, Scott A

2012-04-01

Complex economic decisions - whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget - often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and flexibly match behavior to changes in the environment. In recent years, substantial research has implicated the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) in the flexible control of behavior. However, nearly all such evidence comes from paradigms involving executive function or response selection, not complex decision-making. Here, we review evidence that demonstrates that the dmPFC contributes to strategic control in complex decision-making. This region contains a functional topography such that the posterior dmPFC supports response-related control, whereas the anterior dmPFC supports strategic control. Activation in the anterior dmPFC signals changes in how a decision problem is represented, which in turn can shape computational processes elsewhere in the brain. Based on these findings, we argue for both generalized contributions of the dmPFC to cognitive control, and specific computational roles for its subregions depending upon the task demands and context. We also contend that these strategic considerations are likely to be critical for decision-making in other domains, including interpersonal interactions in social settings. © 2012 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2012 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Strategic Control in Decision Making under Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Venkatraman, Vinod; Huettel, Scott

2012-01-01

Complex economic decisions – whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget – often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, to evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and to flexibly match behavior to changes in the environment. In recent years, substantial research implicates the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) in the flexible control of behavior. However, nearly all such evidence comes from paradigms involving executive function or response selection, not complex decision making. Here, we review evidence that demonstrates that the dmPFC contributes to strategic control in complex decision making. This region contains a functional topography such that the posterior dmPFC supports response-related control while the anterior dmPFC supports strategic control. Activation in the anterior dmPFC signals changes in how a decision problem is represented, which in turn can shape computational processes elsewhere in the brain. Based on these findings, we argue both for generalized contributions of the dmPFC to cognitive control, and for specific computational roles for its subregions depending upon the task demands and context. We also contend that these strategic considerations are also likely to be critical for decision making in other domains, including interpersonal interactions in social settings. PMID:22487037

Responding to the Gulf War: A Case Study of Instructional Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merryfield, Merry M.

1993-01-01

Reports on study of teacher decision making regarding instruction about Gulf War. Finds teachers were influenced by student grade level, number of students in class from another culture, and their own knowledge of Middle Eastern history and geography. Concludes that local and state curriculum officials should provide more flexibility so teachers…

Regulatory Fit and Systematic Exploration in a Dynamic Decision-Making Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Otto, A. Ross; Markman, Arthur B.; Gureckis, Todd M.; Love, Bradley C.

2010-01-01

This work explores the influence of motivation on choice behavior in a dynamic decision-making environment, where the payoffs from each choice depend on one's recent choice history. Previous research reveals that participants in a regulatory fit exhibit increased levels of exploratory choice and flexible use of multiple strategies over the course…

Impaired flexible decision-making in Major Depressive Disorder.

PubMed

Cella, Matteo; Dymond, Simon; Cooper, Andy

2010-07-01

Depression is associated with dysfunctional affective states, neuropsychological impairment and altered sensitivity to reward and punishment. These impairments can influence complex decision-making in changing environments. The contingency shifting variant Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was used to assess flexible decision-making performance in a group of medicated unipolar Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) patients (n=19) and a group of healthy control volunteers (n=20). The task comprised the standard IGT followed by a contingency-shift phase where decks progressively changed reward and punishment schedule. Patients with MDD showed impaired performance compared to controls during both the standard and the contingency-shift phases of the IGT. Analysis of the contingency-shift phase demonstrated that individuals with depression had difficulties perceiving when a previously bad contingency became good. The present findings have several limitations including small sample size, the possible confounding role of medication and absence of other neuropsychological tests (i.e., executive function). Depressed patients show impaired decision-making behaviour in static and dynamic environments. Altered sensitivity to reward and punishment is proposed as the mechanism responsible for the lack of advantageous choices and poor adjustment to a changing environment.

Orbitofrontal cortex, emotional decision-making and response to cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis

PubMed Central

Premkumar, Preethi; Fannon, Dominic; Sapara, Adegboyega; Peters, Emmanuelle R.; Anilkumar, Anantha P.; Simmons, Andrew; Kuipers, Elizabeth; Kumari, Veena

2015-01-01

Grey matter volume (GMV) in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) may relate to better response to cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis (CBTp) because of the region׳s role in emotional decision-making and cognitive flexibility. This study aimed to determine the relation between pre-therapy OFC GMV or asymmetry, emotional decision-making and CBTp responsiveness. Emotional decision-making was measured by the Iowa Gambling task (IGT). Thirty patients received CBTp+standard care (CBTp+SC; 25 completers) for 6–8 months. All patients (before receiving CBTp) and 25 healthy participants underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging. Patients׳ symptoms were assessed before and after therapy. Pre-therapy OFC GMV was measured using a region-of-interest approach, and IGT performance was measured as overall learning, attention to reward, memory for past outcomes and choice consistency. Both these measures, were comparable between patient and healthy groups. In the CBTp+SC group, greater OFC GMV correlated with positive symptom improvement, specifically hallucinations and persecution. Greater rightward OFC asymmetry correlated with improvement in several negative and general psychopathology symptoms. Greater left OFC GMV was associated with lower IGT attention to reward. The findings suggest that greater OFC volume and rightward asymmetry, which maintain the OFC׳s function in emotional decision-making and cognitive flexibility, are beneficial for CBTp responsiveness. PMID:25659473

A Framework for a Decision Support System in a Hierarchical Extended Enterprise Decision Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boza, Andrés; Ortiz, Angel; Vicens, Eduardo; Poler, Raul

Decision Support System (DSS) tools provide useful information to decision makers. In an Extended Enterprise, a new goal, changes in the current objectives or small changes in the extended enterprise configuration produce a necessary adjustment in its decision system. A DSS in this context must be flexible and agile to make suitable an easy and quickly adaptation to this new context. This paper proposes to extend the Hierarchical Production Planning (HPP) structure to an Extended Enterprise decision making context. In this way, a framework for DSS in Extended Enterprise context is defined using components of HPP. Interoperability details have been reviewed to identify the impact in this framework. The proposed framework allows overcoming some interoperability barriers, identifying and organizing components for a DSS in Extended Enterprise context, and working in the definition of an architecture to be used in the design process of a flexible DSS in Extended Enterprise context which can reuse components for futures Extended Enterprise configurations.

Beyond the Bureaucratic Model: A Study of Power and Autonomy in Educational Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanson, Mark

1976-01-01

This paper argues that there are at least two decision-making systems in the school: (1) the first reflects mainly school-wide affairs and lends itself to rational, centrally controlled procedures that restrict behaviors to conform with well-programmed events; and (2) the second reflects mainly classroom affairs and requires flexibility and…

Executive Functions in Children Who Experience Bullying Situations

PubMed Central

Medeiros, Wandersonia; Torro-Alves, Nelson; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro F.; Minervino, Carla M.

2016-01-01

Bullying is characterized by intentional, repetitive, and persistent aggressive behavior that causes damage to the victim. Many studies investigate the social and emotional aspects related to bullying, but few assess the cognitive aspects it involves. Studies with aggressive individuals indicate impairment in executive functioning and decision-making. The objective of this study was to assess hot and cold executive functions in children who experience bullying. A total of 60 children between 10 and 11 years of age were included in the study. They were divided into four groups: aggressors (bullies), victims, bully-victims, and control. Tests for decision-making, inhibitory control, working memory, and cognitive flexibility were used. The bully group made more unfavorable choices on the Iowa Gambling Task, which may indicate difficulties in the decision-making process. The victim group took longer to complete the Trail Making Test (Part B) than aggressors, suggesting lower cognitive flexibility in victims. The hypothesis that aggressors would have lower performance in other executive functions such as inhibitory control, working memory, and cognitive flexibility has not been confirmed. This study indicates that bullies have an impairment of hot executive functions whereas victims have a comparatively lower performance in cold executive functions. In addition to social and cultural variables, neurocognitive and emotional factors seem to influence the behavior of children in bullying situations. PMID:27616998

Serial, parallel and hierarchical decision making in primates

PubMed Central

Zylberberg, Ariel; Lorteije, Jeannette AM; Ouellette, Brian G; De Zeeuw, Chris I; Sigman, Mariano; Roelfsema, Pieter

2017-01-01

The study of decision-making has mainly focused on isolated decisions where choices are associated with motor actions. However, problem-solving often involves considering a hierarchy of sub-decisions. In a recent study (Lorteije et al. 2015), we reported behavioral and neuronal evidence for hierarchical decision making in a task with a small decision tree. We observed a first phase of parallel evidence integration for multiple sub-decisions, followed by a phase in which the overall strategy formed. It has been suggested that a 'flat' competition between the ultimate motor actions might also explain these results. A reanalysis of the data does not support the critical predictions of flat models. We also examined the time-course of decision making in other, related tasks and report conditions where evidence integration for successive decisions is decoupled, which excludes flat models. We conclude that the flexibility of decision-making implies that the strategies are genuinely hierarchical. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.17331.001 PMID:28648172

Building flexible real-time systems using the Flex language

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Kevin B.; Lin, Kwei-Jay

1991-01-01

The design and implementation of a real-time programming language called Flex, which is a derivative of C++, are presented. It is shown how different types of timing requirements might be expressed and enforced in Flex, how they might be fulfilled in a flexible way using different program models, and how the programming environment can help in making binding and scheduling decisions. The timing constraint primitives in Flex are easy to use yet powerful enough to define both independent and relative timing constraints. Program models like imprecise computation and performance polymorphism can carry out flexible real-time programs. In addition, programmers can use a performance measurement tool that produces statistically correct timing models to predict the expected execution time of a program and to help make binding decisions. A real-time programming environment is also presented.

Orbitofrontal cortex, emotional decision-making and response to cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis.

PubMed

Premkumar, Preethi; Fannon, Dominic; Sapara, Adegboyega; Peters, Emmanuelle R; Anilkumar, Anantha P; Simmons, Andrew; Kuipers, Elizabeth; Kumari, Veena

2015-03-30

Grey matter volume (GMV) in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) may relate to better response to cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis (CBTp) because of the region׳s role in emotional decision-making and cognitive flexibility. This study aimed to determine the relation between pre-therapy OFC GMV or asymmetry, emotional decision-making and CBTp responsiveness. Emotional decision-making was measured by the Iowa Gambling task (IGT). Thirty patients received CBTp+standard care (CBTp+SC; 25 completers) for 6-8 months. All patients (before receiving CBTp) and 25 healthy participants underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging. Patients׳ symptoms were assessed before and after therapy. Pre-therapy OFC GMV was measured using a region-of-interest approach, and IGT performance was measured as overall learning, attention to reward, memory for past outcomes and choice consistency. Both these measures, were comparable between patient and healthy groups. In the CBTp+SC group, greater OFC GMV correlated with positive symptom improvement, specifically hallucinations and persecution. Greater rightward OFC asymmetry correlated with improvement in several negative and general psychopathology symptoms. Greater left OFC GMV was associated with lower IGT attention to reward. The findings suggest that greater OFC volume and rightward asymmetry, which maintain the OFC׳s function in emotional decision-making and cognitive flexibility, are beneficial for CBTp responsiveness. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets in decision making with positive and negative parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatimah, F.; Rosadi, D.; Hakim, R. B. F.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we motivate and introduce probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets for handling decision making problem in the presence of positive and negative parameters. We propose several types of algorithms related to this problem. Our procedures are flexible and adaptable. An example on real data is also given.

Impaired Flexible Reward-Based Decision-Making in Binge Eating Disorder: Evidence from Computational Modeling and Functional Neuroimaging.

PubMed

Reiter, Andrea M F; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Deserno, Lorenz

2017-02-01

Despite its clinical relevance and the recent recognition as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5, binge eating disorder (BED) has rarely been investigated from a cognitive neuroscientific perspective targeting a more precise neurocognitive profiling of the disorder. BED patients suffer from a lack of behavioral control during recurrent binge eating episodes and thus fail to adapt their behavior in the face of negative consequences, eg, high risk for obesity. To examine impairments in flexible reward-based decision-making, we exposed BED patients (n=22) and matched healthy individuals (n=22) to a reward-guided decision-making task during functional resonance imaging (fMRI). Performing fMRI analysis informed via computational modeling of choice behavior, we were able to identify specific signatures of altered decision-making in BED. On the behavioral level, we observed impaired behavioral adaptation in BED, which was due to enhanced switching behavior, a putative deficit in striking a balance between exploration and exploitation appropriately. This was accompanied by diminished activation related to exploratory decisions in the anterior insula/ventro-lateral prefrontal cortex. Moreover, although so-called model-free reward prediction errors remained intact, representation of ventro-medial prefrontal learning signatures, incorporating inference on unchosen options, was reduced in BED, which was associated with successful decision-making in the task. On the basis of a computational psychiatry account, the presented findings contribute to defining a neurocognitive phenotype of BED.

Impaired Flexible Reward-Based Decision-Making in Binge Eating Disorder: Evidence from Computational Modeling and Functional Neuroimaging

PubMed Central

Reiter, Andrea M F; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Deserno, Lorenz

2017-01-01

Despite its clinical relevance and the recent recognition as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5, binge eating disorder (BED) has rarely been investigated from a cognitive neuroscientific perspective targeting a more precise neurocognitive profiling of the disorder. BED patients suffer from a lack of behavioral control during recurrent binge eating episodes and thus fail to adapt their behavior in the face of negative consequences, eg, high risk for obesity. To examine impairments in flexible reward-based decision-making, we exposed BED patients (n=22) and matched healthy individuals (n=22) to a reward-guided decision-making task during functional resonance imaging (fMRI). Performing fMRI analysis informed via computational modeling of choice behavior, we were able to identify specific signatures of altered decision-making in BED. On the behavioral level, we observed impaired behavioral adaptation in BED, which was due to enhanced switching behavior, a putative deficit in striking a balance between exploration and exploitation appropriately. This was accompanied by diminished activation related to exploratory decisions in the anterior insula/ventro-lateral prefrontal cortex. Moreover, although so-called model-free reward prediction errors remained intact, representation of ventro–medial prefrontal learning signatures, incorporating inference on unchosen options, was reduced in BED, which was associated with successful decision-making in the task. On the basis of a computational psychiatry account, the presented findings contribute to defining a neurocognitive phenotype of BED. PMID:27301429

Evolutionary mechanics: new engineering principles for the emergence of flexibility in a dynamic and uncertain world.

PubMed

Whitacre, James M; Rohlfshagen, Philipp; Bender, Axel; Yao, Xin

2012-09-01

Engineered systems are designed to deftly operate under predetermined conditions yet are notoriously fragile when unexpected perturbations arise. In contrast, biological systems operate in a highly flexible manner; learn quickly adequate responses to novel conditions, and evolve new routines and traits to remain competitive under persistent environmental change. A recent theory on the origins of biological flexibility has proposed that degeneracy-the existence of multi-functional components with partially overlapping functions-is a primary determinant of the robustness and adaptability found in evolved systems. While degeneracy's contribution to biological flexibility is well documented, there has been little investigation of degeneracy design principles for achieving flexibility in systems engineering. Actually, the conditions that can lead to degeneracy are routinely eliminated in engineering design. With the planning of transportation vehicle fleets taken as a case study, this article reports evidence that degeneracy improves the robustness and adaptability of a simulated fleet towards unpredicted changes in task requirements without incurring costs to fleet efficiency. We find that degeneracy supports faster rates of design adaptation and ultimately leads to better fleet designs. In investigating the limitations of degeneracy as a design principle, we consider decision-making difficulties that arise from degeneracy's influence on fleet complexity. While global decision-making becomes more challenging, we also find degeneracy accommodates rapid distributed decision-making leading to (near-optimal) robust system performance. Given the range of conditions where favorable short-term and long-term performance outcomes are observed, we propose that degeneracy may fundamentally alter the propensity for adaptation and is useful within different engineering and planning contexts.

Making Choices: Self-Directed Teams or Total Quality Management?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holpp, Lawrence

1992-01-01

Describes differences between total quality management and self-directed teams in terms of job design, decision making, flexibility, supervision, labor relations, quality, customers, and training. Offers suggestions for which method to choose when. (SK)

Liminality and decision making for upper limb surgery in tetraplegia: a grounded theory.

PubMed

Dunn, Jennifer A; Hay-Smith, E Jean C; Whitehead, Lisa C; Keeling, Sally

2013-07-01

To explore, from the perspective of the person with tetraplegia, the issues that influenced decision making about upper limb surgery and develop a conceptual framework describing the decision making process. Purposive and theoretical sampling of 22 people with tetraplegia, followed by interviews. Ten people had upper limb surgery and 12 had not. Verbatim transcripts were analyzed with constructivist grounded theory. Participants responded to the offer of surgery in one of three ways: yes, let me have it; no thanks; or possibly. Many influences on the decision about surgery had a temporal element, such as hope for the cure or recovery from SCI, inadequate physical or social supports while rehabilitating, life roles and goals, and the avoidance of re-hospitalization. The conceptual framework illustrated that many participants entered a liminal state within which they required a stimulus to review their decision about upper limb surgery. Decision making is a temporal process, and for some the process was a prolonged and liminal one. Therefore, multiple offers for surgery are required to allow for changing thoughts and circumstances throughout an individual's lifetime. Flexibility with regard to timing for surgery and type of rehabilitation may increase the uptake, especially for women. • Multiple offers for upper limb surgery are required throughout an individual's lifetime to account for changing thoughts and priorities. • Identification of the type of support required (informational, emotional) may assist in decreasing the time taken to make the decision about surgery. • Flexibility in surgical and rehabilitation options, especially for women, may increase the uptake of surgery.

Goal driven kinematic simulation of flexible arm robot for space station missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janssen, P.; Choudry, A.

1987-01-01

Flexible arms offer a great degree of flexibility in maneuvering in the space environment. The problem of transporting an astronaut for extra-vehicular activity using a space station based flexible arm robot was studied. Inverse kinematic solutions of the multilink structure were developed. The technique is goal driven and can support decision making for configuration selection as required for stability and obstacle avoidance. Details of this technique and results are given.

Analysis of Trajectory Flexibility Preservation Impact on Traffic Complexity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni; El-Wakil, Tarek; Wing, David J.

2009-01-01

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors proposed the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics, namely dynamic density indicators, which indicated that using the flexibility metrics reduced aircraft density and the potential of loss of separation.

Cognitive flexibility and decision-making in eating disorders and obesity.

PubMed

Perpiñá, Conxa; Segura, Mara; Sánchez-Reales, Sergio

2017-09-01

The aim of the present study was to compare decision-making and cognitive flexibility in patients with disordered eating and weight, ranging from anorexia nervosa to obesity, and a healthy group. Participants were 113 patients (86 with eating disorders and 27 with obesity), and a group of 39 healthy subjects; all completed the Iowa gambling task, the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test and several clinical self-report measures. Eating disordered and obese patients showed impaired performance on the decision-making task, and the obese group showed the worst performance on the set-shifting task. There were no associations between neuropsychological performance and eating or obsessive symptomatology, although significant associations were found with anxiety and depression measures. Considering the executive functions as a transdiagnostic process in ED and obesity could provide explanations for the inability to regulate food intake, present in both ED and obese patients. Implications of these executive impairments in the development and maintenance of ED and obesity are discussed.

An efficient representation of spatial information for expert reasoning in robotic vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, Steven; Interrante, Mark

1987-01-01

The previous generation of robotic vehicles and drones was designed for a specific task, with limited flexibility in executing their mission. This limited flexibility arises because the robotic vehicles do not possess the intelligence and knowledge upon which to make significant tactical decisions. Current development of robotic vehicles is toward increased intelligence and capabilities, adapting to a changing environment and altering mission objectives. The latest techniques in artificial intelligence (AI) are being employed to increase the robotic vehicle's intelligent decision-making capabilities. This document describes the design of the SARA spatial database tool, which is composed of request parser, reasoning, computations, and database modules that collectively manage and derive information useful for robotic vehicles.

SUNY Management Flexibility Program. Program Audit.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New York State Legislative Commission on Expenditure Review, Albany.

This audit assesses implementation of the University Operating Flexibility Act by the State University of New York (SUNY). The legislation was designed to give SUNY more autonomy to make daily operating decisions, in order that SUNY could better compete with other major higher education institutions nationwide. The legislation empowered SUNY to…

Dynamic Excitatory and Inhibitory Gain Modulation Can Produce Flexible, Robust and Optimal Decision-making

PubMed Central

Niyogi, Ritwik K.; Wong-Lin, KongFatt

2013-01-01

Behavioural and neurophysiological studies in primates have increasingly shown the involvement of urgency signals during the temporal integration of sensory evidence in perceptual decision-making. Neuronal correlates of such signals have been found in the parietal cortex, and in separate studies, demonstrated attention-induced gain modulation of both excitatory and inhibitory neurons. Although previous computational models of decision-making have incorporated gain modulation, their abstract forms do not permit an understanding of the contribution of inhibitory gain modulation. Thus, the effects of co-modulating both excitatory and inhibitory neuronal gains on decision-making dynamics and behavioural performance remain unclear. In this work, we incorporate time-dependent co-modulation of the gains of both excitatory and inhibitory neurons into our previous biologically based decision circuit model. We base our computational study in the context of two classic motion-discrimination tasks performed in animals. Our model shows that by simultaneously increasing the gains of both excitatory and inhibitory neurons, a variety of the observed dynamic neuronal firing activities can be replicated. In particular, the model can exhibit winner-take-all decision-making behaviour with higher firing rates and within a significantly more robust model parameter range. It also exhibits short-tailed reaction time distributions even when operating near a dynamical bifurcation point. The model further shows that neuronal gain modulation can compensate for weaker recurrent excitation in a decision neural circuit, and support decision formation and storage. Higher neuronal gain is also suggested in the more cognitively demanding reaction time than in the fixed delay version of the task. Using the exact temporal delays from the animal experiments, fast recruitment of gain co-modulation is shown to maximize reward rate, with a timescale that is surprisingly near the experimentally fitted value. Our work provides insights into the simultaneous and rapid modulation of excitatory and inhibitory neuronal gains, which enables flexible, robust, and optimal decision-making. PMID:23825935

Defining decision making: a qualitative study of international experts' views on surgical trainee decision making.

PubMed

Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H

2011-06-01

Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.

Distributed Trajectory Flexibility Preservation for Traffic Complexity Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni; Wing, David; Delahaye, Daniel

2009-01-01

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors propose the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics based on Lyapunov exponents and traffic proximity.

Narrative Interest Standard: A Novel Approach to Surrogate Decision-Making for People With Dementia.

PubMed

Wilkins, James M

2017-06-17

Dementia is a common neurodegenerative process that can significantly impair decision-making capacity as the disease progresses. When a person is found to lack capacity to make a decision, a surrogate decision-maker is generally sought to aid in decision-making. Typical bases for surrogate decision-making include the substituted judgment standard and the best interest standard. Given the heterogeneous and progressive course of dementia, however, these standards for surrogate decision-making are often insufficient in providing guidance for the decision-making for a person with dementia, escalating the likelihood of conflict in these decisions. In this article, the narrative interest standard is presented as a novel and more appropriate approach to surrogate decision-making for people with dementia. Through case presentation and ethical analysis, the standard mechanisms for surrogate decision-making for people with dementia are reviewed and critiqued. The narrative interest standard is then introduced and discussed as a dementia-specific model for surrogate decision-making. Through incorporation of elements of a best interest standard in focusing on the current benefit-burden ratio and elements of narrative to provide context, history, and flexibility for values and preferences that may change over time, the narrative interest standard allows for elaboration of an enriched context for surrogate decision-making for people with dementia. More importantly, however, a narrative approach encourages the direct contribution from people with dementia in authoring the story of what matters to them in their lives.

The role of noise in self-organized decision making by the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum.

PubMed

Meyer, Bernd; Ansorge, Cedrick; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

2017-01-01

Self-organized mechanisms are frequently encountered in nature and known to achieve flexible, adaptive control and decision-making. Noise plays a crucial role in such systems: It can enable a self-organized system to reliably adapt to short-term changes in the environment while maintaining a generally stable behavior. This is fundamental in biological systems because they must strike a delicate balance between stable and flexible behavior. In the present paper we analyse the role of noise in the decision-making of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum, an important model species for the investigation of computational abilities in simple organisms. We propose a simple biological experiment to investigate the reaction of P. polycephalum to time-variant risk factors and present a stochastic extension of an established mathematical model for P. polycephalum to analyze this experiment. It predicts that-due to the mechanism of stochastic resonance-noise can enable P. polycephalum to correctly assess time-variant risk factors, while the corresponding noise-free system fails to do so. Beyond the study of P. polycephalum we demonstrate that the influence of noise on self-organized decision-making is not tied to a specific organism. Rather it is a general property of the underlying process dynamics, which appears to be universal across a wide range of systems. Our study thus provides further evidence that stochastic resonance is a fundamental component of the decision-making in self-organized macroscopic and microscopic groups and organisms.

The role of noise in self-organized decision making by the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum

PubMed Central

Ansorge, Cedrick; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

2017-01-01

Self-organized mechanisms are frequently encountered in nature and known to achieve flexible, adaptive control and decision-making. Noise plays a crucial role in such systems: It can enable a self-organized system to reliably adapt to short-term changes in the environment while maintaining a generally stable behavior. This is fundamental in biological systems because they must strike a delicate balance between stable and flexible behavior. In the present paper we analyse the role of noise in the decision-making of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum, an important model species for the investigation of computational abilities in simple organisms. We propose a simple biological experiment to investigate the reaction of P. polycephalum to time-variant risk factors and present a stochastic extension of an established mathematical model for P. polycephalum to analyze this experiment. It predicts that—due to the mechanism of stochastic resonance—noise can enable P. polycephalum to correctly assess time-variant risk factors, while the corresponding noise-free system fails to do so. Beyond the study of P. polycephalum we demonstrate that the influence of noise on self-organized decision-making is not tied to a specific organism. Rather it is a general property of the underlying process dynamics, which appears to be universal across a wide range of systems. Our study thus provides further evidence that stochastic resonance is a fundamental component of the decision-making in self-organized macroscopic and microscopic groups and organisms. PMID:28355213

A Bayesian Attractor Model for Perceptual Decision Making

PubMed Central

Bitzer, Sebastian; Bruineberg, Jelle; Kiebel, Stefan J.

2015-01-01

Even for simple perceptual decisions, the mechanisms that the brain employs are still under debate. Although current consensus states that the brain accumulates evidence extracted from noisy sensory information, open questions remain about how this simple model relates to other perceptual phenomena such as flexibility in decisions, decision-dependent modulation of sensory gain, or confidence about a decision. We propose a novel approach of how perceptual decisions are made by combining two influential formalisms into a new model. Specifically, we embed an attractor model of decision making into a probabilistic framework that models decision making as Bayesian inference. We show that the new model can explain decision making behaviour by fitting it to experimental data. In addition, the new model combines for the first time three important features: First, the model can update decisions in response to switches in the underlying stimulus. Second, the probabilistic formulation accounts for top-down effects that may explain recent experimental findings of decision-related gain modulation of sensory neurons. Finally, the model computes an explicit measure of confidence which we relate to recent experimental evidence for confidence computations in perceptual decision tasks. PMID:26267143

Rodent models of adaptive decision making.

PubMed

Izquierdo, Alicia; Belcher, Annabelle M

2012-01-01

Adaptive decision making affords the animal the ability to respond quickly to changes in a dynamic environment: one in which attentional demands, cost or effort to procure the reward, and reward contingencies change frequently. The more flexible the organism is in adapting choice behavior, the more command and success the organism has in navigating its environment. Maladaptive decision making is at the heart of much neuropsychiatric disease, including addiction. Thus, a better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie normal, adaptive decision making helps achieve a better understanding of certain diseases that incorporate maladaptive decision making as a core feature. This chapter presents three general domains of methods that the experimenter can manipulate in animal decision-making tasks: attention, effort, and reward contingency. Here, we present detailed methods of rodent tasks frequently employed within these domains: the Attentional Set-Shift Task, Effortful T-maze Task, and Visual Discrimination Reversal Learning. These tasks all recruit regions within the frontal cortex and the striatum, and performance is heavily modulated by the neurotransmitter dopamine, making these assays highly valid measures in the study of psychostimulant addiction.

Collaborative Interactivity and Integrated Thinking in Brazilian Business Schools Using Cognitive Flexibility Hypertexts: The Panteon Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lima, Marcos; Koehler, Matthew J.; Spiro, Rand J.

2004-01-01

In this article, we discuss how the Harvard Method of case study, Interactive Communication Technologies, and Cognitive Flexibility Theory may contribute to case-based learning about business decision-making. In particular, we are interested in designing learning environments that foster critical thinking, creativity, and reasoning that entertains…

What perceptions do patients have of decision making (DM)? Toward an integrative patient-centered care model. A qualitative study using focus-group interviews.

PubMed

Moreau, Alain; Carol, Laurent; Dedianne, Marie Cécile; Dupraz, Christian; Perdrix, Corinne; Lainé, Xavier; Souweine, Gilbert

2012-05-01

To understand patients' perceptions of decision making and identify relationships among decision-making models. This qualitative study was made up of four focus group interviews (elderly persons, users of health support groups, students, and rural inhabitants). Participants were asked to report their perceptions of decision making in three written clinical scenarios (hypertension, breast cancer, prostate cancer). The analysis was based on the principles of grounded theory. Most patients perceived decision making as shared decision making, a deliberative question-response interaction with the physician that allowed patients to be experts in obtaining clearer information, participating in the care process, and negotiating compromises with physician preferences. Requesting second opinions allowed patients to maintain control, even within the paternalistic model preferred by elderly persons. Facilitating factors (trust, qualitative non-verbal communication, time to think) and obstacles (serious/emergency situations, perceived inadequate scientific competence, problems making requests, fear of knowing) were also part of shared decision making. In the global concept of patient-centered care, shared decision making can be flexible and can integrate paternalistic and informative models. Physicians' expertise should be associated with biomedical and relational skills through listening to, informing, and advising patients, and by supporting patients' choices. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aggregation operators of neutrosophic linguistic numbers for multiple attribute group decision making.

PubMed

Ye, Jun

2016-01-01

Based on the concept of neutrosophic linguistic numbers (NLNs) in symbolic neutrosophic theory presented by Smarandache in 2015, the paper firstly proposes basic operational laws of NLNs and the expected value of a NLN to rank NLNs. Then, we propose the NLN weighted arithmetic average (NLNWAA) and NLN weighted geometric average (NLNWGA) operators and discuss their properties. Further, we establish a multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) method by using the NLNWAA and NLNWGA operators under NLN environment. Finally, an illustrative example on a decision-making problem of manufacturing alternatives in the flexible manufacturing system is given to show the application of the proposed MAGDM method.

Error affect inoculation for a complex decision-making task.

PubMed

Tabernero, Carmen; Wood, Robert E

2009-05-01

Individuals bring knowledge, implicit theories, and goal orientations to group meetings. Group decisions arise out of the exchange of these orientations. This research explores how a trainee's exploratory and deliberate process (an incremental theory and learning goal orientation) impacts the effectiveness of individual and group decision-making processes. The effectiveness of this training program is compared with another program that included error affect inoculation (EAI). Subjects were 40 Spanish Policemen in a training course. They were distributed in two training conditions for an individual and group decision-making task. In one condition, individuals received the Self-Guided Exploration plus Deliberation Process instructions, which emphasised exploring the options and testing hypotheses. In the other condition, individuals also received instructions based on Error Affect Inoculation (EAI), which emphasised positive affective reactions to errors and mistakes when making decisions. Results show that the quality of decisions increases when the groups share their reasoning. The AIE intervention promotes sharing information, flexible initial viewpoints, and improving the quality of group decisions. Implications and future directions are discussed.

Inter-individual differences in decision-making, flexible and goal-directed behaviors: novel insights within the prefronto-striatal networks.

PubMed

Fitoussi, Aurélie; Renault, Prisca; Le Moine, Catherine; Coutureau, Etienne; Cador, Martine; Dellu-Hagedorn, Françoise

2018-03-01

Inflexible behavior is a hallmark of several decision-making-related disorders such as ADHD and addiction. As in humans, a subset of healthy rats makes poor decisions and prefers immediate larger rewards despite suffering large losses in a rat gambling task (RGT). They also display a combination of traits reminiscent of addiction, notably inflexible behavior and perseverative responses. The goal of the present work was twofold: (1) to elucidate if behavioral inflexibility of poor decision-makers could be related to a lower quality of goal-directed behavior (action-outcome associations); (2) to uncover the neural basis of inter-individual differences in goal-directed behavior. We specifically assessed inter-individual differences in decision-making in the RGT, flexibility in the RGT-reversed version and goal-directed behavior in a contingency degradation test, i.e., response adaptation when dissociating reward delivery from the animal's action. The contributions of the medial prefrontal cortex and the dorsal striatum to action-outcome associations were assessed using Zif268 immunodetection. Inflexible behavior was related to a lower sensitivity to contingency degradation in all poor decision-makers and only in a few good decision-makers. This poorer sensitivity was associated with a lower immunoreactivity in prelimbic and infralimbic cortices and a higher one in the dorsomedial and dorsolateral striatum. These findings suggest that an imbalanced prefronto-striatal activity could underlie inaccurate goal representation in changing environments and may promote maladaptive habit formation among poor decision-makers. These data strengthen our previous work identifying biomarkers of vulnerability to develop psychiatric disorders and demonstrate the relevance of inter-individual differences to model maladaptive behaviors.

A Bayesian paradigm for decision-making in proof-of-concept trials.

PubMed

Pulkstenis, Erik; Patra, Kaushik; Zhang, Jianliang

2017-01-01

Decision-making is central to every phase of drug development, and especially at the proof of concept stage where risk and evidence must be weighed carefully, often in the presence of significant uncertainty. The decision to proceed or not to large expensive Phase 3 trials has significant implications to both patients and sponsors alike. Recent experience has shown that Phase 3 failure rates remain high. We present a flexible Bayesian quantitative decision-making paradigm that evaluates evidence relative to achieving a multilevel target product profile. A framework for operating characteristics is provided that allows the drug developer to design a proof-of-concept trial in light of its ability to support decision-making rather than merely achieve statistical significance. Operating characteristics are shown to be superior to traditional p-value-based methods. In addition, discussion related to sample size considerations, application to interim futility analysis and incorporation of prior historical information is evaluated.

Fuzzy decision-making framework for treatment selection based on the combined QUALIFLEX-TODIM method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Pu; Zhang, Hong-yu; Wang, Jian-qiang

2017-10-01

Treatment selection is a multi-criteria decision-making problem of significant concern in the medical field. In this study, a fuzzy decision-making framework is established for treatment selection. The framework mitigates information loss by introducing single-valued trapezoidal neutrosophic numbers to denote evaluation information. Treatment selection has multiple criteria that remarkably exceed the alternatives. In consideration of this characteristic, the framework utilises the idea of the qualitative flexible multiple criteria method. Furthermore, it considers the risk-averse behaviour of a decision maker by employing a concordance index based on TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese of interactive and multi-criteria decision-making) method. A sensitivity analysis is performed to illustrate the robustness of the framework. Finally, a comparative analysis is conducted to compare the framework with several extant methods. Results indicate the advantages of the framework and its better performance compared with the extant methods.

Linking LEGO and Algebra

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Özgün-Koca, S. Asli; Edwards, Thomas G.; Chelst, Kenneth R.

2015-01-01

In mathematics, students should represent, model, and work with such real-world situations as those found in the physical world, the public policy realm, and society (CCSSI 2010). Additionally, students need to make decisions and be flexible enough to improve their decisions after analyzing realistic situations. The LEGO® Pets activity does just…

Role of Spontaneous Brain Activity in Explicit and Implicit Aspects of Cognitive Flexibility under Socially Conflicting Situations: A Resting-state fMRI Study using Fractional Amplitude of Low-frequency Fluctuations.

PubMed

Fujino, Junya; Tei, Shisei; Jankowski, Kathryn F; Kawada, Ryosaku; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2017-12-26

We are constantly exposed to socially conflicting situations in everyday life, and cognitive flexibility is essential for adaptively coping with such difficulties. Flexible goal choice and pursuit are not exclusively conscious, and therefore cognitive flexibility involves both explicit and implicit forms of processing. However, it is unclear how individual differences in explicit and implicit aspects of flexibility are associated with neural activity in a resting state. Here, we measured intrinsic fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF) by resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (RS-fMRI) as an indicator of regional brain spontaneous activity, together with explicit and implicit aspects of cognitive flexibility using the Cognitive Flexibility Scale (CFS) and Implicit Association Test (IAT). Consistent with the dual processing theory, there was a strong association between explicit aspects of flexibility (CFS score) and "rationalism" thinking style and between implicit aspects (IAT effect) and "experientialism." The level of explicit flexibility was also correlated with fALFF values in the left lateral prefrontal cortex, whereas the level of implicit flexibility was correlated with fALFF values in the right cerebellum. Furthermore, the fALFF values in both regions predicted individual preference for flexible decision-making strategy in a vignettes simulation task. These results add to our understanding of the neural mechanisms underlying flexible decision-making for solving social conflicts. More generally, our findings highlight the utility of RS-fMRI combined with both explicit and implicit psychometric measures for better understanding individual differences in social cognition. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Sleep Deprivation Effects on Cognitive Flexibility in Dynamic Decision Making Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-08-01

study, while well-rested and after 38 hours of sleep deprivation (or equivalent well-rested control ). A subset of the subjects assigned to the... control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE August 2017 2. REPORT TYPE Annual 3. DATES COVERED 15 Jul 2016...decision making. We showed that these critical performance deficits are caused by changes in attentional control in fast-paced, dynamically changing

Less can be more: How to make operations more flexible and robust with fewer resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haksöz, ćaǧrı; Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2018-06-01

We review empirical evidence from practice and general theoretical conditions, under which simple rules of thumb can help to make operations flexible and robust. An operation is flexible when it responds adaptively to adverse events such as natural disasters; an operation is robust when it is less affected by adverse events in the first place. We illustrate the relationship between flexibility and robustness in the context of supply chain risk. In addition to increasing flexibility and robustness, simple rules simultaneously reduce the need for resources such as time, money, information, and computation. We illustrate the simple-rules approach with an easy-to-use graphical aid for diagnosing and managing supply chain risk. More generally, we recommend a four-step process for determining the amount of resources that decision makers should invest in so as to increase flexibility and robustness.

Adding flexibility to the search for robust portfolios in non-linear water resource planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomlinson, James; Harou, Julien

2017-04-01

To date robust optimisation of water supply systems has sought to find portfolios or strategies that are robust to a range of uncertainties or scenarios. The search for a single portfolio that is robust in all scenarios is necessarily suboptimal compared to portfolios optimised for a single scenario deterministic future. By contrast establishing a separate portfolio for each future scenario is unhelpful to the planner who must make a single decision today under deep uncertainty. In this work we show that a middle ground is possible by allowing a small number of different portfolios to be found that are each robust to a different subset of the global scenarios. We use evolutionary algorithms and a simple water resource system model to demonstrate this approach. The primary contribution is to demonstrate that flexibility can be added to the search for portfolios, in complex non-linear systems, at the expense of complete robustness across all future scenarios. In this context we define flexibility as the ability to design a portfolio in which some decisions are delayed, but those decisions that are not delayed are themselves shown to be robust to the future. We recognise that some decisions in our portfolio are more important than others. An adaptive portfolio is found by allowing no flexibility for these near-term "important" decisions, but maintaining flexibility in the remaining longer term decisions. In this sense we create an effective 2-stage decision process for a non-linear water resource supply system. We show how this reduces a measure of regret versus the inflexible robust solution for the same system.

Optimal strategies for electric energy contract decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Haili

2000-10-01

The power industry restructuring in various countries in recent years has created an environment where trading of electric energy is conducted in a market environment. In such an environment, electric power companies compete for the market share through spot and bilateral markets. Being profit driven, electric power companies need to make decisions on spot market bidding, contract evaluation, and risk management. New methods and software tools are required to meet these upcoming needs. In this research, bidding strategy and contract pricing are studied from a market participant's viewpoint; new methods are developed to guide a market participant in spot and bilateral market operation. A supplier's spot market bidding decision is studied. Stochastic optimization is formulated to calculate a supplier's optimal bids in a single time period. This decision making problem is also formulated as a Markov Decision Process. All the competitors are represented by their bidding parameters with corresponding probabilities. A systematic method is developed to calculate transition probabilities and rewards. The optimal strategy is calculated to maximize the expected reward over a planning horizon. Besides the spot market, a power producer can also trade in the bilateral markets. Bidding strategies in a bilateral market are studied with game theory techniques. Necessary and sufficient conditions of Nash Equilibrium (NE) bidding strategy are derived based on the generators' cost and the loads' willingness to pay. The study shows that in any NE, market efficiency is achieved. Furthermore, all Nash equilibria are revenue equivalent for the generators. The pricing of "Flexible" contracts, which allow delivery flexibility over a period of time with a fixed total amount of electricity to be delivered, is analyzed based on the no-arbitrage pricing principle. The proposed algorithm calculates the price based on the optimality condition of the stochastic optimization formulation. Simulation examples illustrate the tradeoffs between prices and scheduling flexibility. Spot bidding and contract pricing are not independent decision processes. The interaction between spot bidding and contract evaluation is demonstrated with game theory equilibrium model and market simulation results. It leads to the conclusion that a market participant's contract decision making needs to be further investigated as an integrated optimization formulation.

Decision-making in diabetes mellitus type 1.

PubMed

Rustad, James K; Musselman, Dominique L; Skyler, Jay S; Matheson, Della; Delamater, Alan; Kenyon, Norma S; Cáceda, Ricardo; Nemeroff, Charles B

2013-01-01

Decreased treatment adherence in patients with diabetes mellitus type 1 (type 1 DM) may reflect impairments in decision-making and underlying associated deficits in working memory and executive functioning. Other factors, including comorbid major depression, may also interfere with decision-making. The authors sought to review the clinically relevant characteristics of decision-making in type 1 DM by surveying the literature on decision-making by patients with type 1 DM. Deficiencies in decision-making in patients with type 1 DM or their caregivers contribute to treatment nonadherence and poorer metabolic control. Animal models of type 1 DM reveal deficits in hippocampal-dependent memory tasks, which are reversible with insulin. Neurocognitive studies of patients with type 1 DM reveal lowered performance on ability to apply knowledge to solve problems in a new situation and acquired scholarly knowledge, psychomotor efficiency, cognitive flexibility, visual perception, speed of information-processing, and sustained attention. Other factors that might contribute to poor decision-making in patients with type 1 DM, include "hypoglycemia unawareness" and comorbid major depression (given its increased prevalence in type 1 DM). Future studies utilizing novel treatment strategies to help patients with type 1 DM make better decisions about their disease may improve their glycemic control and quality of life, while minimizing the impact of end-organ disease.

The impact of simulation sequencing on perceived clinical decision making.

PubMed

Woda, Aimee; Hansen, Jamie; Paquette, Mary; Topp, Robert

2017-09-01

An emerging nursing education trend is to utilize simulated learning experiences as a means to optimize competency and decision making skills. The purpose of this study was to examine differences in students' perception of clinical decision making and clinical decision making-related self-confidence and anxiety based on the sequence (order) in which they participated in a block of simulated versus hospital-based learning experiences. A quasi-experimental crossover design was used. Between and within group differences were found relative to self-confidence with the decision making process. When comparing groups, at baseline the simulation followed by hospital group had significantly higher self-confidence scores, however, at 14-weeks both groups were not significantly different. Significant within group differences were found in the simulation followed by hospital group only, demonstrating a significant decrease in clinical decision making related anxiety across the semester. Finally, there were no significant difference in; perceived clinical decision making within or between the groups at the two measurement points. Preliminary findings suggest that simulated learning experiences can be offered with alternating sequences without impacting the process, anxiety or confidence with clinical decision making. This study provides beginning evidence to guide curriculum development and allow flexibility based on student needs and available resources. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Professional judgement and decision-making in adventure sports coaching: the role of interaction.

PubMed

Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

2016-01-01

This qualitative study presents the view that coaching practice places demands on the coach's adaptability and flexibility. These requirements for being adaptive and flexible are met through a careful process of professional judgement and decision-making based on context-appropriate bodies of knowledge. Adventure sports coaches were selected for study on the basis that adventure sports create a hyper-dynamic environment in which these features can be examined. Thematic analysis revealed that coaches were generally well informed and practised with respect to the technical aspects of their sporting disciplines. Less positively, however, they often relied on ad hoc contextualisation of generalised theories of coaching practice to respond to the hyper-dynamic environments encountered in adventure sports. We propose that coaching practice reflects the demands of the environment, individual learning needs of the students and the task at hand. Together, these factors outwardly resemble a constraints-led approach but, we suggest, actually reflect manipulation of these parameters from a cognitive rather than an ecological perspective. This process is facilitated by a refined judgement and decision-making process, sophisticated epistemology and an explicit interaction of coaching components.

The use of logistic regression to enhance risk assessment and decision making by mental health administrators.

PubMed

Menditto, Anthony A; Linhorst, Donald M; Coleman, James C; Beck, Niels C

2006-04-01

Development of policies and procedures to contend with the risks presented by elopement, aggression, and suicidal behaviors are long-standing challenges for mental health administrators. Guidance in making such judgments can be obtained through the use of a multivariate statistical technique known as logistic regression. This procedure can be used to develop a predictive equation that is mathematically formulated to use the best combination of predictors, rather than considering just one factor at a time. This paper presents an overview of logistic regression and its utility in mental health administrative decision making. A case example of its application is presented using data on elopements from Missouri's long-term state psychiatric hospitals. Ultimately, the use of statistical prediction analyses tempered with differential qualitative weighting of classification errors can augment decision-making processes in a manner that provides guidance and flexibility while wrestling with the complex problem of risk assessment and decision making.

Decision making as a window on cognition.

PubMed

Shadlen, Michael N; Kiani, Roozbeh

2013-10-30

A decision is a commitment to a proposition or plan of action based on information and values associated with the possible outcomes. The process operates in a flexible timeframe that is free from the immediacy of evidence acquisition and the real time demands of action itself. Thus, it involves deliberation, planning, and strategizing. This Perspective focuses on perceptual decision making in nonhuman primates and the discovery of neural mechanisms that support accuracy, speed, and confidence in a decision. We suggest that these mechanisms expose principles of cognitive function in general, and we speculate about the challenges and directions before the field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A practical guide to assessing clinical decision-making skills using the key features approach.

PubMed

Farmer, Elizabeth A; Page, Gordon

2005-12-01

This paper in the series on professional assessment provides a practical guide to writing key features problems (KFPs). Key features problems test clinical decision-making skills in written or computer-based formats. They are based on the concept of critical steps or 'key features' in decision making and represent an advance on the older, less reliable patient management problem (PMP) formats. The practical steps in writing these problems are discussed and illustrated by examples. Steps include assembling problem-writing groups, selecting a suitable clinical scenario or problem and defining its key features, writing the questions, selecting question response formats, preparing scoring keys, reviewing item quality and item banking. The KFP format provides educators with a flexible approach to testing clinical decision-making skills with demonstrated validity and reliability when constructed according to the guidelines provided.

Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors

PubMed Central

Ayal, Shahar; Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Hochman, Guy

2015-01-01

A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions. PMID:26284011

Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors.

PubMed

Ayal, Shahar; Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Hochman, Guy

2015-01-01

A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions.

A multi-valued neutrosophic qualitative flexible approach based on likelihood for multi-criteria decision-making problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Juan-juan; Wang, Jian-qiang; Yang, Wu-E.

2017-01-01

In this paper, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems based on the qualitative flexible multiple criteria method (QUALIFLEX), in which the criteria values are expressed by multi-valued neutrosophic information, are investigated. First, multi-valued neutrosophic sets (MVNSs), which allow the truth-membership function, indeterminacy-membership function and falsity-membership function to have a set of crisp values between zero and one, are introduced. Then the likelihood of multi-valued neutrosophic number (MVNN) preference relations is defined and the corresponding properties are also discussed. Finally, an extended QUALIFLEX approach based on likelihood is explored to solve MCDM problems where the assessments of alternatives are in the form of MVNNs; furthermore an example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method, together with a comparison analysis.

Preparing Students for Front-Line Management: Non-Routine Day-to-Day Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clydesdale, Greg; Tan, John

2009-01-01

Purpose: This paper attempts to reduce the gap between management education and practice. It emphasises day-to-day decisions that middle and lower level managers make. The purpose is to provide an education framework embodying a flexible approach to interpretation and solution creation, suitable for situations of ambiguity and uncertainty.…

Optimum Aggregation and Control of Spatially Distributed Flexible Resources in Smart Grid

DOE PAGES

Bhattarai, Bishnu; Mendaza, Iker Diaz de Cerio; Myers, Kurt S.; ...

2017-03-24

This paper presents an algorithm to optimally aggregate spatially distributed flexible resources at strategic microgrid/smart-grid locations. The aggregation reduces a distribution network having thousands of nodes to an equivalent network with a few aggregated nodes, thereby enabling distribution system operators (DSOs) to make faster operational decisions. Moreover, the aggregation enables flexibility from small distributed flexible resources to be traded to different power and energy markets. A hierarchical control architecture comprising a combination of centralized and decentralized control approaches is proposed to practically deploy the aggregated flexibility. The proposed method serves as a great operational tool for DSOs to decide themore » exact amount of required flexibilities from different network section(s) for solving grid constraint violations. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through simulation of three operational scenarios in a real low voltage distribution system having high penetrations of electric vehicles and heat pumps. Finally, the simulation results demonstrated that the aggregation helps DSOs not only in taking faster operational decisions, but also in effectively utilizing the available flexibility.« less

Optimum Aggregation and Control of Spatially Distributed Flexible Resources in Smart Grid

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhattarai, Bishnu; Mendaza, Iker Diaz de Cerio; Myers, Kurt S.

This paper presents an algorithm to optimally aggregate spatially distributed flexible resources at strategic microgrid/smart-grid locations. The aggregation reduces a distribution network having thousands of nodes to an equivalent network with a few aggregated nodes, thereby enabling distribution system operators (DSOs) to make faster operational decisions. Moreover, the aggregation enables flexibility from small distributed flexible resources to be traded to different power and energy markets. A hierarchical control architecture comprising a combination of centralized and decentralized control approaches is proposed to practically deploy the aggregated flexibility. The proposed method serves as a great operational tool for DSOs to decide themore » exact amount of required flexibilities from different network section(s) for solving grid constraint violations. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through simulation of three operational scenarios in a real low voltage distribution system having high penetrations of electric vehicles and heat pumps. Finally, the simulation results demonstrated that the aggregation helps DSOs not only in taking faster operational decisions, but also in effectively utilizing the available flexibility.« less

One night of sleep loss impairs innovative thinking and flexible decision making.

PubMed

Harrison, Y; Horne, J A

1999-05-01

Recent findings with clinically oriented neuropsychological tests suggest that one night without sleep causes particular impairment to tasks requiring flexible thinking and the updating of plans in the light of new information. This relatively little investigated field of sleep deprivation research has real-world implications for decision makers having lost a night's sleep. To explore this latter perspective further, we adapted a dynamic and realistic marketing decision making "game" embodying the need for these skills, and whereby such performance could be measured. As the task relied on the comprehension of a large amount of written information, a critical reasoning test was also administered to ascertain whether any failure at the marketing game might lie with information acquisition rather than with failures in decision making. Ten healthy highly motivated and trained participants underwent two counterbalanced 36 h trials, sleep vs no sleep. The critical reasoning task was unaffected by sleep loss, whereas performance at the game significantly deteri orated after 32-36 h of sleep loss, when sleep deprivation led to more rigid thinking, increased perseverative errors, and marked difficulty in appreciating an updated situation. At this point, and despite the sleep-deprived participants' best efforts to do well, their play collapsed, unlike that of the nonsleep-deprived participants. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Real option logic for healthcare entrepreneurial growth and survival.

PubMed

Williams, David R; Hammes, Paul H

2007-05-01

Given the increasing market and technological uncertainty of capital investments, healthcare financial executives need to incorporate flexibility into their decision making. Traditional capital budgeting techniques do not take into consideration the need for flexibility, changes in the environment, or actions by management. In response, practitioners from various industries have adopted a new way of looking at capital investments: real options.

Cooking and Staff Development: A Blend of Training and Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koll, Patricia; Anderson, Jim

1982-01-01

The making of a staff developer combines deliberate, systematic training and an accumulation of knowledge, skills, and assumptions based on experience. Staff developers must understand school practices and adult learning theory, shared decision-making and organization of support, and be flexible, creative, and committed to their work. (PP)

Toward an Ideal Senior High School Governance Structure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Treslan, D. L.

1979-01-01

This paper delineates six attributes of an ideal high school governance structure: respect, freedom, rationality, flexibility, equality, and involvement of staff and students in the decision-making process. (Author/SJL)

Understanding self-reported difficulties in decision-making by people with autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Vella, Lydia; Ring, Howard A; Aitken, Mike Rf; Watson, Peter C; Presland, Alexander; Clare, Isabel Ch

2017-04-01

Autobiographical accounts and a limited research literature suggest that adults with autism spectrum disorders can experience difficulties with decision-making. We examined whether some of the difficulties they describe correspond to quantifiable differences in decision-making when compared to adults in the general population. The participants (38 intellectually able adults with autism spectrum disorders and 40 neurotypical adults) were assessed on three tasks of decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task, Cambridge Gamble Task and Information Sampling Task), which quantified, respectively, decision-making performance and relative attention to negative and positive outcomes, speed and flexibility, and information sampling. As a caution, all analyses were repeated with a subset of participants ( n ASD  = 29 and n neurotypical  = 39) who were not taking antidepressant or anxiolytic medication. Compared to the neurotypical participants, participants with autism spectrum disorders demonstrated slower decision-making on the Cambridge Gamble Task, and superior performance on the Iowa Gambling Task. When those taking the medications were excluded, participants with autism spectrum disorders also sampled more information. There were no other differences between the groups. These processing tendencies may contribute to the difficulties self-reported in some contexts; however, the results also highlight strengths in autism spectrum disorders, such as a more logical approach to, and care in, decision-making. The findings lead to recommendations for how adults with autism spectrum disorders may be better supported with decision-making.

Noise, cost and speed-accuracy trade-offs: decision-making in a decentralized system

PubMed Central

Marshall, James A.R.; Dornhaus, Anna; Franks, Nigel R.; Kovacs, Tim

2005-01-01

Many natural and artificial decision-making systems face decision problems where there is an inherent compromise between two or more objectives. One such common compromise is between the speed and accuracy of a decision. The ability to exploit the characteristics of a decision problem in order to vary between the extremes of making maximally rapid, or maximally accurate decisions, is a useful property of such systems. Colonies of the ant Temnothorax albipennis (formerly Leptothorax albipennis) are a paradigmatic decentralized decision-making system, and have been shown flexibly to compromise accuracy for speed when making decisions during house-hunting. During emigration, a colony must typically evaluate and choose between several possible alternative new nest sites of differing quality. In this paper, we examine this speed-accuracy trade-off through modelling, and conclude that noise and time-cost of assessing alternative choices are likely to be significant for T. albipennis. Noise and cost of such assessments are likely to mean that T. albipennis' decision-making mechanism is Pareto-optimal in one crucial regard; increasing the willingness of individuals to change their decisions cannot improve collective accuracy overall without impairing speed. We propose that a decentralized control algorithm based on this emigration behaviour may be derived for applications in engineering domains and specify the characteristics of the problems to which it should be suited, based on our new results. PMID:16849234

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

A novel framework for improvement of road accidents considering decision-making styles of drivers in a large metropolitan area.

PubMed

Azadeh, Ali; Zarrin, Mansour; Hamid, Mehdi

2016-02-01

Road accidents can be caused by different factors such as human factors. Quality of the decision-making process of drivers could have a considerable impact on preventing disasters. The main objective of this study is the analysis of factors affecting road accidents by considering the severity of accidents and decision-making styles of drivers. To this end, a novel framework is proposed based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) and statistical methods (SMs) to assess the factors affecting road accidents. In this study, for the first time, dominant decision-making styles of drivers with respect to severity of injuries are identified. To show the applicability of the proposed framework, this research employs actual data of more than 500 samples in Tehran, Iran. The empirical results indicate that the flexible decision style is the dominant style for both minor and severe levels of accident injuries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Case Study Methodology: Flexibility, Rigour, and Ethical Considerations for the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pearson, Marion L.; Albon, Simon P.; Hubball, Harry

2015-01-01

Individuals and teams engaging in the scholarship of teaching and learning (SoTL) in multidisciplinary higher education settings must make decisions regarding choice of research methodology and methods. These decisions are guided by the research context and the goals of the inquiry. With reference to our own recent experiences investigating…

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

2016-04-01

More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically in regards to the level of robustness and flexibility in the selected strategy. This work will equip practitioners and decision makers with an example of a structured process for decision making under climate uncertainty that can be scaled as needed to the problem at hand. This presentation builds further on another submitted abstract "Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning" by Jeuken et al.

A Decision-Oriented Investigation of Air Force Civil Engineering’s Operations Branch and the Implications for a Decision Support System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-01

information when making a decision [ Szilagyi and Wallace , 1983:3201." Driver and Mock used cognitive complexity ideas to develop this two dimensional...flexible AMOUNT OF INFORMATION USED High hierarchic integrative Figure 6. Cognitive Complexity Model ( Szilagyi and Wallace , 1983:321) Decisive Style. The...large amount of inform- ation. However, he processes this information with a multiple focus approach ( Szilagyi and Wallace , 1983:320-321). 26 McKenney

Assessing neural activity related to decision-making through flexible odds ratio curves and their derivatives.

PubMed

Roca-Pardiñas, Javier; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Pardo-Vazquez, Jose L; Leboran, Victor; Molenberghs, Geert; Faes, Christel; Acuña, Carlos

2011-06-30

It is well established that neural activity is stochastically modulated over time. Therefore, direct comparisons across experimental conditions and determination of change points or maximum firing rates are not straightforward. This study sought to compare temporal firing probability curves that may vary across groups defined by different experimental conditions. Odds-ratio (OR) curves were used as a measure of comparison, and the main goal was to provide a global test to detect significant differences of such curves through the study of their derivatives. An algorithm is proposed that enables ORs based on generalized additive models, including factor-by-curve-type interactions to be flexibly estimated. Bootstrap methods were used to draw inferences from the derivatives curves, and binning techniques were applied to speed up computation in the estimation and testing processes. A simulation study was conducted to assess the validity of these bootstrap-based tests. This methodology was applied to study premotor ventral cortex neural activity associated with decision-making. The proposed statistical procedures proved very useful in revealing the neural activity correlates of decision-making in a visual discrimination task. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Symbol labelling improves advantageous decision-making on the Iowa Gambling Task in people with intellectual disabilities.

PubMed

Dymond, Simon; Bailey, Rebecca; Willner, Paul; Parry, Rhonwen

2010-01-01

Individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities often have difficulties foregoing short-term loss for long-term gain. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been extensively adopted as a laboratory measure of this ability. In the present study, we undertook the first investigation with people with intellectual disabilities using a two-choice child version of the IGT, with measures of intellectual and executive functioning. Compared to a group of matched controls, people with intellectual disabilities performed advantageously and showed high levels of subjective awareness about the relative goodness and badness of the decks. A symbol labelling intervention, in which participants were taught to label the good and bad decks at regular intervals significantly improved advantageous decision-making to levels approximating that of controls. Factor analysis of executive functioning scores identified working memory and mental flexibility (response initiation and set shifting), with a near-significant inverse correlation between the extent to which the intervention was required and mental flexibility. These findings show, for the first time, that people with intellectual disabilities are capable of performing advantageously on the IGT and add to the growing clinical literature on decision-making. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

76 FR 588 - Comment Request for Information Collection for Workforce Information Grants to States Application...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-05

...-making, support consultations with strategic partners, and leverage limited WI program grant resources... analysis, information disseminated via the Internet and other means to inform workforce investment decision-making. At the same time, ETA intends to retain a high level of state flexibility, and maintain the...

The Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) Act 2015: what it is and why it matters.

PubMed

Kelly, B D

2017-05-01

Ireland's Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) Act 2015 was signed by President Higgins in December 2015 and scheduled for commencement in 2016. To explore the content and implications of the 2015 Act. Review of the 2015 Act and related literature. The 2015 Act places the "will and preferences" of persons with impaired mental capacity at the heart of decision-making relating to "personal welfare" (including healthcare) and "property and affairs". Capacity is to be "construed functionally" and interventions must be "for the benefit of the relevant person". The Act outlines three levels of decision-making assistance: "decision-making assistant", "co-decision-maker" (joint decision-maker) and "decision-making representative" (substitute decision-maker). There are procedures relating to "enduring power of attorney" and "advance healthcare directives"; in the case of the latter, a "refusal of treatment" can be legally binding, while a "request for a specific treatment" must "be taken into consideration". The 2015 Act is considerably more workable than the 2013 Bill that preceded it. Key challenges include the subtle decision-making required by patients, healthcare staff, Circuit Court judges and the director of the Decision Support Service; implementation of "advance healthcare directives", especially if they do not form part of a broader model of advance care planning (incorporating the flexibility required for unpredictable future circumstances); and the over-arching issue of logistics, as very many healthcare decisions are currently made in situations where the patient's capacity is impaired. A key challenge will lie in balancing the emphasis on autonomy with principles of beneficence, mutuality and care.

Fatigue modulates dopamine availability and promotes flexible choice reversals during decision making.

PubMed

Iodice, Pierpaolo; Ferrante, Claudio; Brunetti, Luigi; Cabib, Simona; Protasi, Feliciano; Walton, Mark E; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2017-04-03

During decisions, animals balance goal achievement and effort management. Despite physical exercise and fatigue significantly affecting the levels of effort that an animal exerts to obtain a reward, their role in effort-based choice and the underlying neurochemistry are incompletely known. In particular, it is unclear whether fatigue influences decision (cost-benefit) strategies flexibly or only post-decision action execution and learning. To answer this question, we trained mice on a T-maze task in which they chose between a high-cost, high-reward arm (HR), which included a barrier, and a low-cost, low-reward arm (LR), with no barrier. The animals were parametrically fatigued immediately before the behavioural tasks by running on a treadmill. We report a sharp choice reversal, from the HR to LR arm, at 80% of their peak workload (PW), which was temporary and specific, as the mice returned to choose the HC when the animals were successively tested at 60% PW or in a two-barrier task. These rapid reversals are signatures of flexible choice. We also observed increased subcortical dopamine levels in fatigued mice: a marker of individual bias to use model-based control in humans. Our results indicate that fatigue levels can be incorporated in flexible cost-benefits computations that improve foraging efficiency.

A qualitative analysis of implementing shared decision making in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services in the United Kingdom: Stages and facilitators.

PubMed

Abrines-Jaume, Neus; Midgley, Nick; Hopkins, Katy; Hoffman, Jasmine; Martin, Kate; Law, Duncan; Wolpert, Miranda

2016-01-01

To explore the implementation of shared decision making (SDM) in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS), and identify clinician-determined facilitators to SDM. Professionals from four UK CAMHS tried a range of tools to support SDM. They reflected on their experiences using plan-do-study-act log books. A total of 23 professionals completed 307 logs, which were transcribed and analysed using Framework Analysis in Atlas.Ti. Three states of implementation (apprehension, feeling clunky, and integration) and three aspects of clinician behavior or approach (effort, trust, and flexibility) were identified. Implementation of SDM in CAMHS requires key positive clinician behaviors, including preparedness to put in effort, trust in young people, and use of the approach flexibly. Implementation of SDM in CAMHS is effortful, and while tools may help support SDM, clinicians need to be allowed to use the tools flexibly to allow them to move from a state of apprehension through a sense of feeling "clunky" to integration in practice. © The Author(s) 2014.

Statewide transportation planning for healthy communities

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-04-01

This white paper presents insights and a flexible model for State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) that choose to integrate public health considerations into their transportation planning and decision-making. It draws from five case studies of in...

Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in flood event management, the more damage can be reduced. And with decisions based on probabilistic forecasts, partial decisions can be made earlier in time (with a lower probability) and can be scaled up or down later in time when there is more certainty; whether the event takes place or not. Partial decisions are often more cheap, or shorten the final mitigation-time at the moment when there is more certainty. The proposed method is tested on Stonehaven, on the Carron River in Scotland. Decisions to implement demountable defences in the town are currently made based on a very short lead-time due to the absence of certainty. Application showed that staged decision making is possible and gives the decision maker more time to respond to a situation. The decision maker is able to take a lower regret decision with higher uncertainty and less related negative consequences. Although it is not possible to quantify intangible effects, it is part of the analysis to reduce these effects. Above all, the proposed approach has shown to be a possible improvement in economic terms and opens up possibilities of more flexible and robust decision making.

Acute Δ-9-tetrahydrocannabinol administration in female rats attenuates immediate responses following losses but not multi-trial reinforcement learning from wins.

PubMed

Wong, Scott A; Randolph, Sienna H; Ivan, Victorita E; Gruber, Aaron J

2017-09-29

Δ-9-Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is the main psychoactive component of marijuana and has potent effects on decision-making, including a proposed reduction in cognitive flexibility. We demonstrate here that acute THC administration differentially affects some of the processes that contribute to cognitive flexibility. Specifically, THC reduces lose-shift responding in which female rats tend to immediately shift choice responses away from options that result in reward omission on the previous trial. THC, however, did not impair the ability of rats to flexibly bias responses toward feeders with higher probability of reward in a reversal task. This response adaptation developed over several trials, suggesting that THC did not impair slower forms of reinforcement learning needed to choose among options with unequal utility. This dissociation of THC's effects on innate/rapid and learned/gradual decision-making processes was unexpected, but is supported by emerging evidence that lose-shift responding is mediated by neural mechanisms distinct from those involved in other forms of reinforcement learning. The present data suggest that, at least in some tasks, the apparent reductions in cognitive flexibility by THC may be explained by the immediate effects on loss sensitivity, rather than impairments of all processes used for choice adaptation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Knowing When to Be "Rational": Flexible Economic Decision Making and Executive Function in Preschool Children.

PubMed

Lee, Wendy S C; Carlson, Stephanie M

2015-01-01

Failure to delay gratification may not indicate poor control or irrationality, but might be an adaptive response. Two studies investigated 3.5- and 4.5-year-old children's ability to adapt their delay and saving behavior when their preference (e.g., to delay or not delay) became nonadaptive. In Study 1 (N = 140), children's delay preference was associated with a risk of losing rewards. In Study 2 (N = 142), children's saving preference was associated with an inability to play an attractive game. Whereas baseline delaying and saving preferences were unrelated to a standardized executive function measure, children who switched to their nonpreferred choice scored higher, suggesting flexibility of decision-making may be a more meaningful dependent variable than baseline performance in developmental research on self-control. © 2015 The Authors. Child Development © 2015 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Design of Adaptive Policy Pathways under Deep Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babovic, Vladan

2013-04-01

The design of large-scale engineering and infrastructural systems today is growing in complexity. Designers need to consider sociotechnical uncertainties, intricacies, and processes in the long- term strategic deployment and operations of these systems. In this context, water and spatial management is increasingly challenged not only by climate-associated changes such as sea level rise and increased spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, but also by pressures due to population growth and particularly accelerating rate of urbanisation. Furthermore, high investment costs and long term-nature of water-related infrastructure projects requires long-term planning perspective, sometimes extending over many decades. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future unfolds, as well as by policy responses to social and water events. As a result, a pathway emerges. Instead of responding to 'surprises' and making decisions on ad hoc basis, exploring adaptation pathways into the future provide indispensable support in water management decision-making. In this contribution, a structured approach for designing a dynamic adaptive policy based on the concepts of adaptive policy making and adaptation pathways is introduced. Such an approach provides flexibility which allows change over time in response to how the future unfolds, what is learned about the system, and changes in societal preferences. The introduced flexibility provides means for dealing with complexities of adaptation under deep uncertainties. It enables engineering systems to change in the face of uncertainty to reduce impacts from downside scenarios while capitalizing on upside opportunities. This contribution presents comprehensive framework for development and deployment of adaptive policy pathway framework, and demonstrates its performance under deep uncertainties on a case study related to urban water catchment in Singapore. Ingredients of this approach are: (a) transient scenarios (time series of various uncertain developments such as climate change, economic developments, societal changes), (b) a methodology for exploring many options and sequences of these options across different futures, and (c) a stepwise policy analysis. The strategy is applied on case of flexible deployment of novel, so-called Next Generation Infrastructure, and assessed in context of the proposed. Results of the study show that flexible design alternatives deliver much enhanced performance compared to systems optimized under deterministic forecasts of the future. The work also demonstrates that explicit incorporation of uncertainty and flexibility into decision-making process reduces capital expenditures while allowing decision makers to learn about system evolution throughout the lifetime of the project.

Developmental changes in decision making under risk: The role of executive functions and reasoning abilities in 8- to 19-year-old decision makers.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; García-Arias, María; García-Villamisar, Domingo; Cabanyes-Truffino, Javier; Brand, Matthias

2015-01-01

Previous studies have shown that children and adolescents often tend toward risky decisions despite explicit knowledge about the potential negative consequences. This phenomenon has been suggested to be associated with the immaturity of brain areas involved in cognitive control functions. Particularly, "frontal lobe functions," such as executive functions and reasoning, mature until young adulthood and are thought to be involved in age-related changes in decision making under explicit risk conditions. We investigated 112 participants, aged 8-19 years, with a frequently used task assessing decisions under risk, the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Additionally, we administered the Modified Card Sorting Test assessing executive functioning (categorization, cognitive flexibility, and strategy maintenance) as well as the Ravens Progressive Matrices assessing reasoning. The results showed that risk taking in the GDT decreased with increasing age and this effect was not moderated by reasoning but by executive functions: Particularly, young persons with weak executive functioning showed very risky decision making. Thus, the individual maturation of executive functions, associated with areas in the prefrontal cortex, seems to be an important factor in young peoples' behavior in risky decision-making situations.

Mechanisms Underlying Decision-Making as Revealed by Deep-Brain Stimulation in Patients with Parkinson's Disease.

PubMed

Herz, Damian M; Little, Simon; Pedrosa, David J; Tinkhauser, Gerd; Cheeran, Binith; Foltynie, Tom; Bogacz, Rafal; Brown, Peter

2018-04-23

To optimally balance opposing demands of speed and accuracy during decision-making, we must flexibly adapt how much evidence we require before making a choice. Such adjustments in decision thresholds have been linked to the subthalamic nucleus (STN), and therapeutic STN deep-brain stimulation (DBS) has been shown to interfere with this function. Here, we performed continuous as well as closed-loop DBS of the STN while Parkinson's disease patients performed a perceptual decision-making task. Closed-loop STN DBS allowed temporally patterned STN stimulation and simultaneous recordings of STN activity. This revealed that DBS only affected patients' ability to adjust decision thresholds if applied in a specific temporally confined time window during deliberation. Only stimulation in that window diminished the normal slowing of response times that occurred on difficult trials when DBS was turned off. Furthermore, DBS eliminated a relative, time-specific increase in STN beta oscillations and compromised its functional relationship with trial-by-trial adjustments in decision thresholds. Together, these results provide causal evidence that the STN is involved in adjusting decision thresholds in distinct, time-limited processing windows during deliberation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Decision making technical support study for the US Army's Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feldman, D.L.; Dobson, J.E.

1990-08-01

This report examines the adequacy of current command and control systems designed to make timely decisions that would enable sufficient warning and protective response to an accident at the Edgewood area of Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG), Maryland, and at Pine Bluff Arsenal (PBA), Arkansas. Institutional procedures designed to facilitate rapid accident assessment, characterization, warning, notification, and response after the onset of an emergency and computer-assisted decision-making aids designed to provide salient information to on- and-off-post emergency responders are examined. The character of emergency decision making at APG and PBA, as well as potential needs for improvements to decision-making practices, procedures,more » and automated decision-support systems (ADSSs), are described and recommendations are offered to guide equipment acquisition and improve on- and off-post command and control relationships. We recommend that (1) a continued effort be made to integrate on- and off-post command control, and decision-making procedures to permit rapid decision making; (2) the pathways for alert and notification among on- and off-post officials be improved and that responsibilities and chain of command among off-post agencies be clarified; (3) greater attention be given to organizational and social context factors that affect the adequacy of response and the likelihood that decision-making systems will work as intended; and (4) faster improvements be made to on-post ADSSs being developed at APG and PBA, which hold considerable promise for depicting vast amounts of information. Phased development and procurement of computer-assisted decision-making tools should be undertaken to balance immediate needs against available resources and to ensure flexibility, equity among sites, and compatibility among on- and off-post systems. 112 refs., 6 tabs.« less

Flexible functional regression methods for estimating individualized treatment regimes.

PubMed

Ciarleglio, Adam; Petkova, Eva; Tarpey, Thaddeus; Ogden, R Todd

2016-01-01

A major focus of personalized medicine is on the development of individualized treatment rules. Good decision rules have the potential to significantly advance patient care and reduce the burden of a host of diseases. Statistical methods for developing such rules are progressing rapidly, but few methods have considered the use of pre-treatment functional data to guide in decision-making. Furthermore, those methods that do allow for the incorporation of functional pre-treatment covariates typically make strong assumptions about the relationships between the functional covariates and the response of interest. We propose two approaches for using functional data to select an optimal treatment that address some of the shortcomings of previously developed methods. Specifically, we combine the flexibility of functional additive regression models with Q -learning or A -learning in order to obtain treatment decision rules. Properties of the corresponding estimators are discussed. Our approaches are evaluated in several realistic settings using synthetic data and are applied to real data arising from a clinical trial comparing two treatments for major depressive disorder in which baseline imaging data are available for subjects who are subsequently treated.

Dying cancer patients talk about physician and patient roles in DNR decision making.

PubMed

Eliott, Jaklin A; Olver, Ian

2011-06-01

Within medical and bioethical discourse, there are many models depicting the relationships between, and roles of, physician and patient in medical decision making. Contestation similarly exists over the roles of physician and patient with regard to the decision not to provide cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) following cardiac arrest [the do-not-resuscitate or do-not-resuscitate (DNR) decision], but there is little analysis of patient perspectives. Analyse what patients with cancer within weeks before dying say about the decision to forego CPR and the roles of patient and physician in this decision. Discursive analysis of qualitative data gathered during semi-structured interviews with 28 adult cancer patients close to death and attending palliative or oncology clinics of an Australian teaching hospital. Participants' descriptions of appropriate patient or physician roles in decisions about CPR appeared related to how they conceptualized the decision: as a personal or a medical issue, with patient and doctor respectively identified as appropriate decision makers; or alternatively, both medical and personal, with various roles assigned embodying different versions of a shared decision-making process. Participants' endorsement of physicians as decision makers rested upon physicians' enactment of the rational, knowledgeable and compassionate expert, which legitimized entrusting them to make the DNR decision. Where this was called into question, physicians were positioned as inappropriate decision makers. When patients' and physicians' understandings of the best decision, or of the preferred role of either party, diverge, conflict may ensue. In order to elicit and negotiate with patient preferences, flexibility is required during clinical interactions about decision making. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Thinking like an expert: surgical decision making as a cyclical process of being aware.

PubMed

Cristancho, Sayra M; Apramian, Tavis; Vanstone, Meredith; Lingard, Lorelei; Ott, Michael; Forbes, Thomas; Novick, Richard

2016-01-01

Education researchers are studying the practices of high-stake professionals as they learn how to better train for flexibility under uncertainty. This study explores the "Reconciliation Cycle" as the core element of an intraoperative decision-making model of how experienced surgeons assess and respond to challenges. We analyzed 32 semistructured interviews using constructivist grounded theory to develop a model of intraoperative decision making. Using constant comparison analysis, we built on this model with 9 follow-up interviews about the most challenging cases described in our dataset. The Reconciliation Cycle constituted an iterative process of "gaining" and "transforming information." The cyclical nature of surgeons' decision making suggested that transforming information requires a higher degree of awareness, not yet accounted by current conceptualizations of situation awareness. This study advances the notion of situation awareness in surgery. This characterization will support further investigations on how expert and nonexpert surgeons implement strategies to cope with unexpected events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exogenous testosterone in women enhances and inhibits competitive decision-making depending on victory-defeat experience and trait dominance.

PubMed

Mehta, Pranjal H; van Son, Veerle; Welker, Keith M; Prasad, Smrithi; Sanfey, Alan G; Smidts, Ale; Roelofs, Karin

2015-10-01

The present experiment tested the causal impact of testosterone on human competitive decision-making. According to prevailing theories about testosterone's role in social behavior, testosterone should directly boost competitive decisions. But recent correlational evidence suggests that testosterone's behavioral effects may depend on specific aspects of the context and person relevant to social status (win-lose context and trait dominance). We tested the causal influence of testosterone on competitive decisions by combining hormone administration with measures of trait dominance and a newly developed social competition task in which the victory-defeat context was experimentally manipulated, in a sample of 54 female participants. Consistent with the hypothesis that testosterone has context- and person-dependent effects on competitive behavior, testosterone increased competitive decisions after victory only among high-dominant individuals but testosterone decreased competitive decisions after defeat across all participants. These results suggest that testosterone flexibly modulates competitive decision-making depending on prior social experience and dominance motivation in the service of enhancing social status. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conceptual Knowledge Influences Decision Making Differently in Individuals with High or Low Cognitive Flexibility: An ERP Study.

PubMed

Dong, Xiaofei; Du, Xiumin; Qi, Bing

2016-01-01

Studies using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) have distinguished between good and bad decision makers and have provided an explanation for deficits in decision making. Previous studies have demonstrated a link between Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST) performance and IGT performance, but the results were not consistent and failed to explain why WCST performance can predict IGT performance. The present study aimed to demonstrate that WCST performance can predict IGT performance and to identify the cognitive component of the WCST that affects IGT performance using event-related potentials (ERPs). In this study, 39 healthy subjects (5 subjects were excluded) were divided into a high group and a low group based on their global score on the WCST. A single-choice version of the IGT was used to eliminate the impact of retrieval strategies on the choice evaluation process and interference due to uncorrelated decks. Differences in the underlying neural mechanisms and explicit knowledge between the two groups during the three stages of the decision-making process were described. Based on the information processing perspective, we divided the decision-making process into three stages: choice evaluation, response selection, and feedback processing. The behavioral results showed that the highly cognitively flexible participants performed better on the IGT and acquired more knowledge of the task. The ERP results showed that during the choice evaluation stage, the P300 recorded from central and parietal regions when a bad deck appeared was larger in the high group participants than in the low group participants. During the response selection stage, the effect of choice type was significant only in the frontal region in the high group, with a larger effect for passing. During the feedback evaluation stage, a larger FRN was evoked for a loss than for a win in the high group, whereas the FRN effect was absent in the low group. Compared with the participants with low cognitive flexibility, the participants with high cognitive flexibility performed better on the IGT, acquired more knowledge of the task, and displayed more obvious somatic markers. The low group participants showed reduced working memory abilities during the choice evaluation stage. The appropriate somatic markers reflected by the DPN is formed only when conceptual knowledge is gained in the response selection stage. The absence of an FRN effect in the subjects who performed poorly on the WCST suggests a significant deficit in feedback learning and reward prediction.

Conceptual Knowledge Influences Decision Making Differently in Individuals with High or Low Cognitive Flexibility: An ERP Study

PubMed Central

Dong, Xiaofei; Du, Xiumin; Qi, Bing

2016-01-01

Objective Studies using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) have distinguished between good and bad decision makers and have provided an explanation for deficits in decision making. Previous studies have demonstrated a link between Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST) performance and IGT performance, but the results were not consistent and failed to explain why WCST performance can predict IGT performance. The present study aimed to demonstrate that WCST performance can predict IGT performance and to identify the cognitive component of the WCST that affects IGT performance using event-related potentials (ERPs). Methods In this study, 39 healthy subjects (5 subjects were excluded) were divided into a high group and a low group based on their global score on the WCST. A single-choice version of the IGT was used to eliminate the impact of retrieval strategies on the choice evaluation process and interference due to uncorrelated decks. Differences in the underlying neural mechanisms and explicit knowledge between the two groups during the three stages of the decision-making process were described. Results Based on the information processing perspective, we divided the decision-making process into three stages: choice evaluation, response selection, and feedback processing. The behavioral results showed that the highly cognitively flexible participants performed better on the IGT and acquired more knowledge of the task. The ERP results showed that during the choice evaluation stage, the P300 recorded from central and parietal regions when a bad deck appeared was larger in the high group participants than in the low group participants. During the response selection stage, the effect of choice type was significant only in the frontal region in the high group, with a larger effect for passing. During the feedback evaluation stage, a larger FRN was evoked for a loss than for a win in the high group, whereas the FRN effect was absent in the low group. Conclusion Compared with the participants with low cognitive flexibility, the participants with high cognitive flexibility performed better on the IGT, acquired more knowledge of the task, and displayed more obvious somatic markers. The low group participants showed reduced working memory abilities during the choice evaluation stage. The appropriate somatic markers reflected by the DPN is formed only when conceptual knowledge is gained in the response selection stage. The absence of an FRN effect in the subjects who performed poorly on the WCST suggests a significant deficit in feedback learning and reward prediction. PMID:27479484

Freight Matters: Trucking Industry Guide to Freight and Intermodal Planning Under ISTEA

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-11-01

The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) has changed the rules of the transportation decision-making game. Previously narrow, restrictive funding categories have been collapsed into a few broad, flexible programs, and stat...

Management Development at Hewlett-Packard.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nilsson, William P.

This presentation describes the principles and policies underlying the successful management development program at Hewlett-Packard Company, a manufacturer of electronic instruments and components. The company is organized into relatively independent product divisions with decentralized decision-making responsibilities, flexible working hours, and…

Dynamic Integration of Value Information into a Common Probability Currency as a Theory for Flexible Decision Making

PubMed Central

Christopoulos, Vassilios; Schrater, Paul R.

2015-01-01

Decisions involve two fundamental problems, selecting goals and generating actions to pursue those goals. While simple decisions involve choosing a goal and pursuing it, humans evolved to survive in hostile dynamic environments where goal availability and value can change with time and previous actions, entangling goal decisions with action selection. Recent studies suggest the brain generates concurrent action-plans for competing goals, using online information to bias the competition until a single goal is pursued. This creates a challenging problem of integrating information across diverse types, including both the dynamic value of the goal and the costs of action. We model the computations underlying dynamic decision-making with disparate value types, using the probability of getting the highest pay-off with the least effort as a common currency that supports goal competition. This framework predicts many aspects of decision behavior that have eluded a common explanation. PMID:26394299

US Army Organizational Culture’s Effect on Innovation and Creativity

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-25

of high levels of hierarchical control, clearly defined roles, and centralized decision-making impede flexibility and creativity. When innovation is...of thinking people experience when they are deeply involved in a cohesive team. Members of cohesive decision...represent C.J. Jung’s basic theory on psychological types. In general, these preferences affect what people attend to and how they draw conclusions about

Dying cancer patients talk about physician and patient roles in DNR decision making

PubMed Central

Eliott, Jaklin A.; Olver, Ian

2011-01-01

Abstract Background  Within medical and bioethical discourse, there are many models depicting the relationships between, and roles of, physician and patient in medical decision making. Contestation similarly exists over the roles of physician and patient with regard to the decision not to provide cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) following cardiac arrest [the do‐not‐resuscitate or do‐not‐resuscitate (DNR) decision], but there is little analysis of patient perspectives. Objective  Analyse what patients with cancer within weeks before dying say about the decision to forego CPR and the roles of patient and physician in this decision. Design and participants  Discursive analysis of qualitative data gathered during semi‐structured interviews with 28 adult cancer patients close to death and attending palliative or oncology clinics of an Australian teaching hospital. Results  Participants’ descriptions of appropriate patient or physician roles in decisions about CPR appeared related to how they conceptualized the decision: as a personal or a medical issue, with patient and doctor respectively identified as appropriate decision makers; or alternatively, both medical and personal, with various roles assigned embodying different versions of a shared decision‐making process. Participants’ endorsement of physicians as decision makers rested upon physicians’ enactment of the rational, knowledgeable and compassionate expert, which legitimized entrusting them to make the DNR decision. Where this was called into question, physicians were positioned as inappropriate decision makers. Conclusion  When patients’ and physicians’ understandings of the best decision, or of the preferred role of either party, diverge, conflict may ensue. In order to elicit and negotiate with patient preferences, flexibility is required during clinical interactions about decision making. PMID:20860782

The influence of cueing on attentional focus in perceptual decision making.

PubMed

Yang, Cheng-Ta; Little, Daniel R; Hsu, Ching-Chun

2014-11-01

Selective attention has been known to play an important role in decision making. In the present study, we combined a cueing paradigm with a redundant-target detection task to examine how attention affects the decision process when detecting the redundant targets. Cue validity was manipulated in two experiments. The results showed that when the cue was 50 % valid in one experiment, the participants adopted a parallel self-terminating processing strategy, indicative of a diffuse attentional focus on both target locations. When the cue was 100 % valid in the second experiment, all of the participants switched to a serial self-terminating processing strategy, which in our study indicated focused attention to a single target location. This study demonstrates the flexibility of the decision mechanism and highlights the importance of top-down control in selecting a decision strategy.

Selecting Nonpharmaceutical Strategies to Minimize Influenza Spread: The 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic and Beyond

PubMed Central

Koonin, Lisa M.; Kohl, Katrin S.; Cetron, Martin

2012-01-01

Shortly after the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic began, the U.S. government provided guidance to state and local authorities to assist decision-making for the use of nonpharmaceutical strategies to minimize influenza spread. This guidance included recommendations for flexible decision-making based on outbreak severity, and it allowed for uncertainty and course correction as the pandemic progressed. These recommendations build on a foundation of local, collaborative planning and posit a series of questions regarding epidemiology, the impact on the health-care system, and locally determined feasibility and acceptability of nonpharmaceutical strategies. This article describes -recommendations and key questions for decision makers. PMID:23115381

Individual consistency and flexibility in human social information use.

PubMed

Toelch, Ulf; Bruce, Matthew J; Newson, Lesley; Richerson, Peter J; Reader, Simon M

2014-02-07

Copying others appears to be a cost-effective way of obtaining adaptive information, particularly when flexibly employed. However, adult humans differ considerably in their propensity to use information from others, even when this 'social information' is beneficial, raising the possibility that stable individual differences constrain flexibility in social information use. We used two dissimilar decision-making computer games to investigate whether individuals flexibly adjusted their use of social information to current conditions or whether they valued social information similarly in both games. Participants also completed established personality questionnaires. We found that participants demonstrated considerable flexibility, adjusting social information use to current conditions. In particular, individuals employed a 'copy-when-uncertain' social learning strategy, supporting a core, but untested, assumption of influential theoretical models of cultural transmission. Moreover, participants adjusted the amount invested in their decision based on the perceived reliability of personally gathered information combined with the available social information. However, despite this strategic flexibility, participants also exhibited consistent individual differences in their propensities to use and value social information. Moreover, individuals who favoured social information self-reported as more collectivist than others. We discuss the implications of our results for social information use and cultural transmission.

Individual consistency and flexibility in human social information use

PubMed Central

Toelch, Ulf; Bruce, Matthew J.; Newson, Lesley; Richerson, Peter J.; Reader, Simon M.

2014-01-01

Copying others appears to be a cost-effective way of obtaining adaptive information, particularly when flexibly employed. However, adult humans differ considerably in their propensity to use information from others, even when this ‘social information’ is beneficial, raising the possibility that stable individual differences constrain flexibility in social information use. We used two dissimilar decision-making computer games to investigate whether individuals flexibly adjusted their use of social information to current conditions or whether they valued social information similarly in both games. Participants also completed established personality questionnaires. We found that participants demonstrated considerable flexibility, adjusting social information use to current conditions. In particular, individuals employed a ‘copy-when-uncertain’ social learning strategy, supporting a core, but untested, assumption of influential theoretical models of cultural transmission. Moreover, participants adjusted the amount invested in their decision based on the perceived reliability of personally gathered information combined with the available social information. However, despite this strategic flexibility, participants also exhibited consistent individual differences in their propensities to use and value social information. Moreover, individuals who favoured social information self-reported as more collectivist than others. We discuss the implications of our results for social information use and cultural transmission. PMID:24352950

What makes health impact assessments successful? Factors contributing to effectiveness in Australia and New Zealand.

PubMed

Haigh, Fiona; Harris, Elizabeth; Harris-Roxas, Ben; Baum, Fran; Dannenberg, Andrew L; Harris, Mark F; Keleher, Helen; Kemp, Lynn; Morgan, Richard; Ng Chok, Harrison; Spickett, Jeff

2015-10-03

While many guidelines explain how to conduct Health Impact Assessments (HIAs), less is known about the factors that determine the extent to which HIAs affect health considerations in the decision making process. We investigated which factors are associated with increased or reduced effectiveness of HIAs in changing decisions and in the implementation of policies, programs or projects. This study builds on and tests the Harris and Harris-Roxas' conceptual framework for evaluating HIA effectiveness, which emphasises context, process and output as key domains. We reviewed 55 HIA reports in Australia and New Zealand from 2005 to 2009 and conducted surveys and interviews for 48 of these HIAs. Eleven detailed case studies were undertaken using document review and stakeholder interviews. Case study participants were selected through purposeful and snowball sampling. The data were analysed by thematic content analysis. Findings were synthesised and mapped against the conceptual framework. A stakeholder forum was utilised to test face validity and practical adequacy of the findings. We found that some features of HIA are essential, such as the stepwise but flexible process, and evidence based approach. Non-essential features that can enhance the impact of HIAs include capacity and experience; 'right person right level'; involvement of decision-makers and communities; and relationships and partnerships. There are contextual factors outside of HIA such as fit with planning and decision making context, broader global context and unanticipated events, and shared values and goals that may influence a HIA. Crosscutting factors include proactive positioning, and time and timeliness. These all operate within complex open systems, involving multiple decision-makers, levels of decision-making, and points of influence. The Harris and Harris-Roxas framework was generally supported. We have confirmed previously identified factors influencing effectiveness of HIA and identified new factors such as proactive positioning. Our findings challenge some presumptions about 'right' timing for HIA and the rationality and linearity of decision-making processes. The influence of right timing on decision making needs to be seen within the context of other factors such as proactive positioning. This research can help HIA practitioners and researchers understand and identify what can be enhanced within the HIA process. Practitioners can adapt the flexible HIA process to accommodate the external contextual factors identified in this report.

Critical factors in career decision making for women medical graduates.

PubMed

Lawrence, Joanna; Poole, Phillippa; Diener, Scott

2003-04-01

Within the next 30 years there will be equal numbers of women and men in the medical workforce. Indications are that women are increasing their participation in specialties other than general practice, although at a slower rate than their participation in the workforce as a whole. To inform those involved in training and employment of medical women, this study investigated the influencing factors in career decision making for female medical graduates. A total of 305 women medical graduates from the University of Auckland responded to a mail survey (73% response rate) which examined influences on decision making, in both qualitative and quantitative ways, as part of a larger survey. Most women were satisfied with their careers. The principal component analysis of the influencing factors identified four distinct factors important in career choice - interest, flexibility, women friendliness and job security, although the first two of these were rated more highly than the others. Barriers to full participation by medical women in training and employment need to be systematically examined and removed. This is not only to allow women themselves to reach their full potential, but for workforce and socio-economic reasons. Initiatives that allow and value more flexible training and work practices, particularly through the years of child raising, are necessary for women and the health care workforce at large.

Prefrontal Contribution to Decision-Making under Free-Choice Conditions

PubMed Central

Funahashi, Shintaro

2017-01-01

Executive function is thought to be the coordinated operation of multiple neural processes and allows to accomplish a current goal flexibly. The most important function of the prefrontal cortex is the executive function. Among a variety of executive functions in which the prefrontal cortex participates, decision-making is one of the most important. Although the prefrontal contribution to decision-making has been examined using a variety of behavioral tasks, recent studies using fMRI have shown that the prefrontal cortex participates in decision-making under free-choice conditions. Since decision-making under free-choice conditions represents the very first stage for any kind of decision-making process, it is important that we understand its neural mechanism. Although few studies have examined this issue while a monkey performed a free-choice task, those studies showed that, when the monkey made a decision to subsequently choose one particular option, prefrontal neurons showing selectivity to that option exhibited transient activation just before presentation of the imperative cue. Further studies have suggested that this transient increase is caused by the irregular fluctuation of spontaneous firing just before cue presentation, which enhances the response to the cue and biases the strength of the neuron's selectivity to the option. In addition, this biasing effect was observed only in neurons that exhibited sustained delay-period activity, indicating that this biasing effect not only influences the animal's decision for an upcoming choice, but also is linked to working memory mechanisms in the prefrontal cortex. PMID:28798662

Site-Based Management in Education: How To Make It Work in Your School.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Candoli, I. Carl

This handbook explains site-based management (SBM) in schools to help those who wish to decentralize their operation so that the campus-level staff have flexibility in making decisions that affect the students at their location. The text is divided into four major sections, each devoted to a particular area of concern under the SBM concept.…

Protocol-based care: the standardisation of decision-making?

PubMed

Rycroft-Malone, Jo; Fontenla, Marina; Seers, Kate; Bick, Debra

2009-05-01

To explore how protocol-based care affects clinical decision-making. In the context of evidence-based practice, protocol-based care is a mechanism for facilitating the standardisation of care and streamlining decision-making through rationalising the information with which to make judgements and ultimately decisions. However, whether protocol-based care does, in the reality of practice, standardise decision-making is unknown. This paper reports on a study that explored the impact of protocol-based care on nurses' decision-making. Theoretically informed by realistic evaluation and the promoting action on research implementation in health services framework, a case study design using ethnographic methods was used. Two sites were purposively sampled; a diabetic and endocrine unit and a cardiac medical unit. Within each site, data collection included observation, postobservation semi-structured interviews with staff and patients, field notes, feedback sessions and document review. Data were inductively and thematically analysed. Decisions made by nurses in both sites were varied according to many different and interacting factors. While several standardised care approaches were available for use, in reality, a variety of information sources informed decision-making. The primary approach to knowledge exchange and acquisition was person-to-person; decision-making was a social activity. Rarely were standardised care approaches obviously referred to; nurses described following a mental flowchart, not necessarily linked to a particular guideline or protocol. When standardised care approaches were used, it was reported that they were used flexibly and particularised. While the logic of protocol-based care is algorithmic, in the reality of clinical practice, other sources of information supported nurses' decision-making process. This has significant implications for the political goal of standardisation. The successful implementation and judicious use of tools such as protocols and guidelines will likely be dependant on approaches that facilitate the development of nurses' decision-making processes in parallel to paying attention to the influence of context.

Outreach Schools: An Educational Innovation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Housego, Billie E. J.

1999-01-01

Interviews and surveys of 13 teachers and staff and 213 students from four successful Canadian "outreach schools" found that the characteristics of alternative education that contribute to its success are volunteerism, small size, egalitarianism, a caring attitude, participatory decision making, organizational flexibility, individualized…

Application of decentralized cooperative problem solving in dynamic flexible scheduling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Zai-Lin; Lei, Ming; Wu, Bo; Wu, Ya; Yang, Shuzi

1995-08-01

The object of this study is to discuss an intelligent solution to the problem of task-allocation in shop floor scheduling. For this purpose, the technique of distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) is applied. Intelligent agents (IAs) are used to realize decentralized cooperation, and negotiation is realized by using message passing based on the contract net model. Multiple agents, such as manager agents, workcell agents, and workstation agents, make game-like decisions based on multiple criteria evaluations. This procedure of decentralized cooperative problem solving makes local scheduling possible. And by integrating such multiple local schedules, dynamic flexible scheduling for the whole shop floor production can be realized.

Executive Functioning of Sexually Compulsive and Non-Sexually Compulsive Men Before and After Watching an Erotic Video.

PubMed

Messina, Bruna; Fuentes, Daniel; Tavares, Hermano; Abdo, Carmita H N; Scanavino, Marco de T

2017-03-01

Despite the serious behavioral consequences faced by individuals with sexual compulsivity, related neuropsychological studies are sparse. To compare decision making and cognitive flexibility at baseline and after exposure to an erotic video in sexually compulsive participants and non-sexually compulsive controls. The sample consisted of 30 sexually compulsive men and 30 controls. Cognitive flexibility was investigated through the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test and decision making was examined through the Iowa Gambling Task. Wisconsin Card Sorting Test categories, correct responses, and perseverative errors and Iowa Gambling Task general trends and blocks. Sexually compulsive subjects and controls performed similarly at baseline. After watching an erotic video, controls performed better in block 1 of the Iowa Gambling Task (P = .01) and had more correct responses on the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (P = .01). The controls presented fewer impulsive initial choices and better cognitive flexibility after exposure to erotic stimuli. Messina B, Fuentes D, Tavares H, et al. Executive Functioning of Sexually Compulsive and Non-Sexually Compulsive Men Before and After Watching an Erotic Video. J Sex Med 2017;14:347-354. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Hedonic quality or reward? A study of basic pleasure in homeostasis and decision making of a motivated autonomous robot.

PubMed

Lewis, Matthew; Cañamero, Lola

2016-10-01

We present a robot architecture and experiments to investigate some of the roles that pleasure plays in the decision making (action selection) process of an autonomous robot that must survive in its environment. We have conducted three sets of experiments to assess the effect of different types of pleasure-related versus unrelated to the satisfaction of physiological needs-under different environmental circumstances. Our results indicate that pleasure, including pleasure unrelated to need satisfaction, has value for homeostatic management in terms of improved viability and increased flexibility in adaptive behavior.

Neuropsychological Markers of Suicidal Risk in the Context of Medical Rehabilitation.

PubMed

Pustilnik, Alexandra; Elkana, Odelia; Vatine, Jean-Jacques; Franko, Motty; Hamdan, Sami

2017-01-01

While great strides have been made to advance the understanding of the neurobiology of suicidal behavior (SB), the neural and neuropsychological mechanisms associated with SB are not well understood. The purpose of the current study is to identify neurocognitive markers of SB in the context of medical rehabilitation. The performances of 39 patients at a medical rehabilitation center, aged 21-78, were examined on a series of neurocognitive executive tasks-decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task - IGT), mental flexibility (WCST), response inhibition (SST) and working memory (digit span). Self-report questionnaires were administered, for Suicidal behaviors, depression, Anxiety, and PTSD as well as perceived social support. Suicidal participants performed more poorly on the IGT. A mediation analysis presented a significant direct effect of decision making on suicidal risk (p < 0.14) as well as significant indirect effect of decision making on suicidal risk that was mediated by the depressive symptoms (95% BCa CI [-0.15, -0.018]) with a medium effect size (κ 2  = 0.20, 95% BCa CI [0.067, 0.381]). Despite the complexity of relationship between decision-making and suicidal risk, these results suggest that clinicians should routinely assess decision-making abilities in adults at risk for suicide due to the fact that impaired decision-making may increase suicidal risk above and beyond that conferred by depression.

Students' Reactions to Course Policy Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bailey, Sarah F.; Jenkins, Jade S.; Barber, Larissa K.

2016-01-01

Classroom management involves managing students' requests for course policy changes. Instructors can adhere to the course policies or convey flexibility through making an exception for the student. The current study empirically examines students' emotional reactions (hostility, guilt, and surprise) and fairness perceptions to course policy…

Self-organized flexible leadership promotes collective intelligence in human groups

PubMed Central

Kurvers, Ralf H. J. M.; Wolf, Max; Naguib, Marc; Krause, Jens

2015-01-01

Collective intelligence refers to the ability of groups to outperform individual decision-makers. At present, relatively little is known about the mechanisms promoting collective intelligence in natural systems. We here test a novel mechanism generating collective intelligence: self-organization according to information quality. We tested this mechanism by performing simulated predator detection experiments using human groups. By continuously tracking the personal information of all members prior to collective decisions, we found that individuals adjusted their response time during collective decisions to the accuracy of their personal information. When individuals possessed accurate personal information, they decided quickly during collective decisions providing accurate information to the other group members. By contrast, when individuals had inaccurate personal information, they waited longer, allowing them to use social information before making a decision. Individuals deciding late during collective decisions had an increased probability of changing their decision leading to increased collective accuracy. Our results thus show that groups can self-organize according to the information accuracy of their members, thereby promoting collective intelligence. Interestingly, we find that individuals flexibly acted both as leader and as follower depending on the quality of their personal information at any particular point in time. PMID:27019718

[Clinical bioethics for primary health care].

PubMed

González-de Paz, L

2013-01-01

The clinical decision making process with ethical implications in the area of primary healthcare differs from other healthcare areas. From the ethical perspective it is important to include these issues in the decision making model. This dissertation explains the need for a process of bioethical deliberation for Primary Healthcare, as well as proposing a method for doing so. The decision process method, adapted to this healthcare area, is flexible and requires a more participative Healthcare System. This proposal involves professionals and the patient population equally, is intended to facilitate the acquisition of responsibility for personal and community health. Copyright © 2012 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Design and implementation of the standards-based personal intelligent self-management system (PICS).

PubMed

von Bargen, Tobias; Gietzelt, Matthias; Britten, Matthias; Song, Bianying; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Kohlmann, Martin; Marschollek, Michael; Haux, Reinhold

2013-01-01

Against the background of demographic change and a diminishing care workforce there is a growing need for personalized decision support. The aim of this paper is to describe the design and implementation of the standards-based personal intelligent care systems (PICS). PICS makes consistent use of internationally accepted standards such as the Health Level 7 (HL7) Arden syntax for the representation of the decision logic, HL7 Clinical Document Architecture for information representation and is based on a open-source service-oriented architecture framework and a business process management system. Its functionality is exemplified for the application scenario of a patient suffering from congestive heart failure. Several vital signs sensors provide data for the decision support system, and a number of flexible communication channels are available for interaction with patient or caregiver. PICS is a standards-based, open and flexible system enabling personalized decision support. Further development will include the implementation of components on small computers and sensor nodes.

Comparative effectiveness research in the U.S.A.: when will there be an impact on healthcare decision-making?

PubMed

Westrich, Kimberly D; Wilhelm, Jess A; Schur, Claudia L

2016-03-01

Five annual surveys of healthcare decision-makers potentially affected by comparative effectiveness research (CER) indicate sustained recognition of its importance and potential impact. Initial expectations of immediate CER impact have over time turned to stakeholder assessments of little short-term impact. In successive surveys, they project a continuous horizon of 3-5 years for CER to have a moderate or substantial improvement in decision making. The prominence of Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute in CER is highlighted by stakeholders, but greater emphasis on translating and disseminating research findings is needed, a role in which Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality is expected to contribute. Stakeholders, including patients, must be engaged throughout to ensure that findings provide the flexibility for decision makers to apply them to their patient populations.

Using the decision ladder to understand road user decision making at actively controlled rail level crossings.

PubMed

Mulvihill, Christine M; Salmon, Paul M; Beanland, Vanessa; Lenné, Michael G; Read, Gemma J M; Walker, Guy H; Stanton, Neville A

2016-09-01

Rail level crossings (RLXs) represent a key strategic risk for railways worldwide. Despite enforcement and engineering countermeasures, user behaviour at RLXs can often confound expectations and erode safety. Research in this area is limited by a relative absence of insights into actual decision making processes and a focus on only a subset of road user types. One-hundred and sixty-six road users (drivers, motorcyclists, cyclists and pedestrians) completed a diary entry for each of 457 naturalistic encounters with RLXs when a train was approaching. The final eligible sample comprised 94 participants and 248 encounters at actively controlled crossings where a violation of the active warnings was possible. The diary incorporated Critical Decision Method probe questions, which enabled user responses to be mapped onto Rasmussen's decision ladder. Twelve percent of crossing events were non-compliant. The underlying decision making was compared to compliant events and a reference decision model to reveal important differences in the structure and type of decision making within and between road user groups. The findings show that engineering countermeasures intended to improve decision making (e.g. flashing lights), may have the opposite effect for some users because the system permits a high level of flexibility for circumvention. Non-motorised users were more likely to access information outside of the warning signals because of their ability to achieve greater proximity to the train tracks and the train itself. The major conundrum in resolving these issues is whether to restrict the amount of time and information available to users so that it cannot be used for circumventing the system or provide more information to help users make safe decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rational decision-making in inhibitory control.

PubMed

Shenoy, Pradeep; Yu, Angela J

2011-01-01

An important aspect of cognitive flexibility is inhibitory control, the ability to dynamically modify or cancel planned actions in response to changes in the sensory environment or task demands. We formulate a probabilistic, rational decision-making framework for inhibitory control in the stop signal paradigm. Our model posits that subjects maintain a Bayes-optimal, continually updated representation of sensory inputs, and repeatedly assess the relative value of stopping and going on a fine temporal scale, in order to make an optimal decision on when and whether to go on each trial. We further posit that they implement this continual evaluation with respect to a global objective function capturing the various reward and penalties associated with different behavioral outcomes, such as speed and accuracy, or the relative costs of stop errors and go errors. We demonstrate that our rational decision-making model naturally gives rise to basic behavioral characteristics consistently observed for this paradigm, as well as more subtle effects due to contextual factors such as reward contingencies or motivational factors. Furthermore, we show that the classical race model can be seen as a computationally simpler, perhaps neurally plausible, approximation to optimal decision-making. This conceptual link allows us to predict how the parameters of the race model, such as the stopping latency, should change with task parameters and individual experiences/ability.

Rational Decision-Making in Inhibitory Control

PubMed Central

Shenoy, Pradeep; Yu, Angela J.

2011-01-01

An important aspect of cognitive flexibility is inhibitory control, the ability to dynamically modify or cancel planned actions in response to changes in the sensory environment or task demands. We formulate a probabilistic, rational decision-making framework for inhibitory control in the stop signal paradigm. Our model posits that subjects maintain a Bayes-optimal, continually updated representation of sensory inputs, and repeatedly assess the relative value of stopping and going on a fine temporal scale, in order to make an optimal decision on when and whether to go on each trial. We further posit that they implement this continual evaluation with respect to a global objective function capturing the various reward and penalties associated with different behavioral outcomes, such as speed and accuracy, or the relative costs of stop errors and go errors. We demonstrate that our rational decision-making model naturally gives rise to basic behavioral characteristics consistently observed for this paradigm, as well as more subtle effects due to contextual factors such as reward contingencies or motivational factors. Furthermore, we show that the classical race model can be seen as a computationally simpler, perhaps neurally plausible, approximation to optimal decision-making. This conceptual link allows us to predict how the parameters of the race model, such as the stopping latency, should change with task parameters and individual experiences/ability. PMID:21647306

Emotion and Value in the Evaluation of Medical Decision-Making Capacity: A Narrative Review of Arguments

PubMed Central

Hermann, Helena; Trachsel, Manuel; Elger, Bernice S.; Biller-Andorno, Nikola

2016-01-01

Ever since the traditional criteria for medical decision-making capacity (understanding, appreciation, reasoning, evidencing a choice) were formulated, they have been criticized for not taking sufficient account of emotions or values that seem, according to the critics and in line with clinical experiences, essential to decision-making capacity. The aim of this paper is to provide a nuanced and structured overview of the arguments provided in the literature emphasizing the importance of these factors and arguing for their inclusion in competence evaluations. Moreover, a broader reflection on the findings of the literature is provided. Specific difficulties of formulating and measuring emotional and valuational factors are discussed inviting reflection on the possibility of handling relevant factors in a more flexible, case-specific, and context-specific way rather than adhering to a rigid set of operationalized criteria. PMID:27303329

Selected Executive Skills in Adolescents with Recent First Episode Major Depression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kyte, Zoe A.; Goodyer, Ian M.; Sahakian, Barbara J.

2005-01-01

Background: To investigate whether recent first episode major depression in adolescence is characterised by selected executive difficulties in attentional flexibility, behavioural inhibition and decision-making. Methods: Selected executive functions were compared in adolescents with recent (past year) first episode major depression (n = 30) and…

45 CFR 98.1 - Goals and purposes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND... each State maximum flexibility in developing child care programs and policies that best suit the needs... make their own decisions on the child care that best suits their family's needs; (3) Encourage States...

45 CFR 98.1 - Goals and purposes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND... each State maximum flexibility in developing child care programs and policies that best suit the needs... make their own decisions on the child care that best suits their family's needs; (3) Encourage States...

Supporting Mobile Collaborative Activities through Scaffolded Flexible Grouping

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boticki, Ivica; Looi, Chee-Kit; Wong, Lung-Hsiang

2011-01-01

Within the field of Mobile Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (mCSCL), we are interested in exploring the space of collaborative activities that enable students to practice communication, negotiation and decision-making skills. Collaboration is via learning activities that circumvent the constraints of fixed seating or locations of…

Concerns, perceived need and competing priorities: a qualitative exploration of decision-making and non-participation in a population-based flexible sigmoidoscopy screening programme to prevent colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Hall, N; Birt, L; Rees, C J; Elliot, S; Ritchie, M; Weller, D; Rubin, G

2016-01-01

Objective Optimising uptake of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is important to achieve projected health outcomes. Population-based screening by flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) was introduced in England in 2013 (NHS Bowel scope screening). Little is known about reactions to the invitation to participate in FS screening, as offered within the context of the Bowel scope programme. We aimed to investigate responses to the screening invitation to inform understanding of decision-making, particularly in relation to non-participation in screening. Design Qualitative analysis of semistructured in-depth interviews and written accounts. Participants and setting People from 31 general practices in the North East and East of England invited to attend FS screening as part of NHS Bowel scope screening programme were sent invitations to take part in the study. We purposively sampled interviewees to ensure a range of accounts in terms of beliefs, screening attendance, sex and geographical location. Results 20 screeners and 25 non-screeners were interviewed. Written responses describing reasons for, and circumstances surrounding, non-participation from a further 28 non-screeners were included in the analysis. Thematic analysis identified a range of reactions to the screening invitation, decision-making processes and barriers to participation. These include a perceived or actual lack of need; inability to attend; anxiety and fear about bowel preparation, procedures or hospital; inability or reluctance to self-administer an enema; beliefs about low susceptibility to bowel cancer or treatment and understanding of harm and benefits. The strength, rather than presence, of concerns about the test and perceived need for reassurance were important in the decision to participate for screeners and non-screeners. Decision-making occurs within the context of previous experiences and day-to-day life. Conclusions Understanding the reasons for non-participation in FS screening can help inform strategies to improve uptake and may be transferable to other screening programmes. PMID:27836872

Safe Operations of Unmanned Systems for Reconnaissance in Complex Environments Army Technology Objective (SOURCE ATO)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-25

must adapt its planning to vehicle size, shape, wheelbase, wheel and axle configuration, the specific obstacle-crossing capabilities of the vehicle...scalability of the ANS is a consequence of making each sensing modality capable of performing reasonable perception tasks while allowing a wider...autonomous system design achieves flexibility by exploiting redundant sensing modalities where possible, and by a decision-making process that

Consultant psychiatrists’ experiences of and attitudes towards shared decision making in antipsychotic prescribing, a qualitative study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Shared decision making represents a clinical consultation model where both clinician and service user are conceptualised as experts; information is shared bilaterally and joint treatment decisions are reached. Little previous research has been conducted to assess experience of this model in psychiatric practice. The current project therefore sought to explore the attitudes and experiences of consultant psychiatrists relating to shared decision making in the prescribing of antipsychotic medications. Methods A qualitative research design allowed the experiences and beliefs of participants in relation to shared decision making to be elicited. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants from a range of clinical backgrounds and with varying length of clinical experience. A semi-structured interview schedule was utilised and was adapted in subsequent interviews to reflect emergent themes. Data analysis was completed in parallel with interviews in order to guide interview topics and to inform recruitment. A directed analysis method was utilised for interview analysis with themes identified being fitted to a framework identified from the research literature as applicable to the practice of shared decision making. Examples of themes contradictory to, or not adequately explained by, the framework were sought. Results A total of 26 consultant psychiatrists were interviewed. Participants expressed support for the shared decision making model, but also acknowledged that it was necessary to be flexible as the clinical situation dictated. A number of potential barriers to the process were perceived however: The commonest barrier was the clinician’s beliefs regarding the service users’ insight into their mental disorder, presented in some cases as an absolute barrier to shared decision making. In addition factors external to the clinician - service user relationship were identified as impacting on the decision making process, including; environmental factors, financial constraints as well as societal perceptions of mental disorder in general and antipsychotic medication in particular. Conclusions This project has allowed identification of potential barriers to shared decision making in psychiatric practice. Further work is necessary to observe the decision making process in clinical practice and also to identify means in which the identified barriers, in particular ‘lack of insight’, may be more effectively managed. PMID:24886121

Consultant psychiatrists' experiences of and attitudes towards shared decision making in antipsychotic prescribing, a qualitative study.

PubMed

Shepherd, Andrew; Shorthouse, Oliver; Gask, Linda

2014-05-01

Shared decision making represents a clinical consultation model where both clinician and service user are conceptualised as experts; information is shared bilaterally and joint treatment decisions are reached. Little previous research has been conducted to assess experience of this model in psychiatric practice. The current project therefore sought to explore the attitudes and experiences of consultant psychiatrists relating to shared decision making in the prescribing of antipsychotic medications. A qualitative research design allowed the experiences and beliefs of participants in relation to shared decision making to be elicited. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants from a range of clinical backgrounds and with varying length of clinical experience. A semi-structured interview schedule was utilised and was adapted in subsequent interviews to reflect emergent themes.Data analysis was completed in parallel with interviews in order to guide interview topics and to inform recruitment. A directed analysis method was utilised for interview analysis with themes identified being fitted to a framework identified from the research literature as applicable to the practice of shared decision making. Examples of themes contradictory to, or not adequately explained by, the framework were sought. A total of 26 consultant psychiatrists were interviewed. Participants expressed support for the shared decision making model, but also acknowledged that it was necessary to be flexible as the clinical situation dictated. A number of potential barriers to the process were perceived however: The commonest barrier was the clinician's beliefs regarding the service users' insight into their mental disorder, presented in some cases as an absolute barrier to shared decision making. In addition factors external to the clinician - service user relationship were identified as impacting on the decision making process, including; environmental factors, financial constraints as well as societal perceptions of mental disorder in general and antipsychotic medication in particular. This project has allowed identification of potential barriers to shared decision making in psychiatric practice. Further work is necessary to observe the decision making process in clinical practice and also to identify means in which the identified barriers, in particular 'lack of insight', may be more effectively managed.

Choosing the appropriate treatment setting: which information and decision-making needs do adult inpatients with mental disorders have? A qualitative interview study

PubMed Central

Kivelitz, Laura; Härter, Martin; Mohr, Jil; Melchior, Hanne; Goetzmann, Lutz; Warnke, Max Holger; Kleinschmidt, Silke; Dirmaier, Jörg

2018-01-01

Background Decisions on medical treatment setting are perceived as important but often difficult to make for patients with mental disorders. Shared decision-making as a strategy to decrease decisional conflict has been recommended, but is not yet widely implemented. This study aimed to investigate the information needs and the decision-making preferences of patients with mental disorders prior to the decision for a certain treatment setting. The results will serve as a prerequisite for the development of a high-quality patient decision aid (PtDA) regarding the treatment setting decision. Methods We conducted retrospective individual semi-structured interviews with n=24 patients with mental disorders in three psychotherapeutic inpatient care units. The interviews were audiotaped, transcribed, coded, and content-analyzed. Results The majority of the patients wanted to be involved in the decision-making process. They reported high information needs regarding treatment options in order to feel empowered to participate adequately in the decision for a certain treatment setting. However, some patients did not want to participate or receive information, for example, because of their high burden of mental disorder. Whereas the majority were satisfied with the extent they were involved in the decision, few participants felt sufficiently informed about treatment options. Most patients reported that a decision aid regarding an appropriate treatment setting would have been helpful for them. Important information that should be included in a PtDA was general information about mental illness, effective treatment options, specific information about the different treatment settings, and access to treatment. Discussion The identified information and decision-making needs provide a valuable basis for the development of a PtDA aiming to support patients and caregivers regarding the decision for an adequate treatment setting. As preferences for participation vary among patients and also depend on the current mental state, a flexible approach is needed to meet patients’ individual wishes and needs. PMID:29805250

Choosing the appropriate treatment setting: which information and decision-making needs do adult inpatients with mental disorders have? A qualitative interview study.

PubMed

Kivelitz, Laura; Härter, Martin; Mohr, Jil; Melchior, Hanne; Goetzmann, Lutz; Warnke, Max Holger; Kleinschmidt, Silke; Dirmaier, Jörg

2018-01-01

Decisions on medical treatment setting are perceived as important but often difficult to make for patients with mental disorders. Shared decision-making as a strategy to decrease decisional conflict has been recommended, but is not yet widely implemented. This study aimed to investigate the information needs and the decision-making preferences of patients with mental disorders prior to the decision for a certain treatment setting. The results will serve as a prerequisite for the development of a high-quality patient decision aid (PtDA) regarding the treatment setting decision. We conducted retrospective individual semi-structured interviews with n=24 patients with mental disorders in three psychotherapeutic inpatient care units. The interviews were audiotaped, transcribed, coded, and content-analyzed. The majority of the patients wanted to be involved in the decision-making process. They reported high information needs regarding treatment options in order to feel empowered to participate adequately in the decision for a certain treatment setting. However, some patients did not want to participate or receive information, for example, because of their high burden of mental disorder. Whereas the majority were satisfied with the extent they were involved in the decision, few participants felt sufficiently informed about treatment options. Most patients reported that a decision aid regarding an appropriate treatment setting would have been helpful for them. Important information that should be included in a PtDA was general information about mental illness, effective treatment options, specific information about the different treatment settings, and access to treatment. The identified information and decision-making needs provide a valuable basis for the development of a PtDA aiming to support patients and caregivers regarding the decision for an adequate treatment setting. As preferences for participation vary among patients and also depend on the current mental state, a flexible approach is needed to meet patients' individual wishes and needs.

Factors impeding flexible inpatient unit design.

PubMed

Pati, Debajyoti; Evans, Jennie; Harvey, Thomas E; Bazuin, Doug

2012-01-01

To identify and examine factors extraneous to the design decision-making process that could impede the optimization of flexibility on inpatient units. A 2006 empirical study to identify domains of design decisions that affect flexibility on inpatient units found some indication in the context of the acuity-adaptable operational model that factors extraneous to the design process could have negatively influenced the successful implementation of the model. This raised questions regarding extraneous factors that might influence the successful optimization of flexibility. An exploratory, qualitative method was adopted to examine the question. Stakeholders from five recently built acute care inpatient units participated in the study, which involved three types of data collection: (1) verbal protocol data from a gaming session; (2) in-depth semi-structured interviews; and (3) shadowing frontline personnel. Data collection was conducted between June 2009 and November 2010. The study revealed at least nine factors extraneous to the design process that have the potential to hinder the optimization of flexibility in four domains: (1) systemic; (2) cultural; (3) human; and (4) financial. Flexibility is critical to hospital operations in the new healthcare climate, where cost reduction constitutes a vital target. From this perspective, flexibility and efficiency strategies can be influenced by (1) return on investment, (2) communication, (3) culture change, and (4) problem definition. Extraneous factors identified in this study could also affect flexibility in other care settings; therefore, these findings may be viewed from the overall context of hospital design.

Probabilistic vs. non-probabilistic approaches to the neurobiology of perceptual decision-making

PubMed Central

Drugowitsch, Jan; Pouget, Alexandre

2012-01-01

Optimal binary perceptual decision making requires accumulation of evidence in the form of a probability distribution that specifies the probability of the choices being correct given the evidence so far. Reward rates can then be maximized by stopping the accumulation when the confidence about either option reaches a threshold. Behavioral and neuronal evidence suggests that humans and animals follow such a probabilitistic decision strategy, although its neural implementation has yet to be fully characterized. Here we show that that diffusion decision models and attractor network models provide an approximation to the optimal strategy only under certain circumstances. In particular, neither model type is sufficiently flexible to encode the reliability of both the momentary and the accumulated evidence, which is a pre-requisite to accumulate evidence of time-varying reliability. Probabilistic population codes, in contrast, can encode these quantities and, as a consequence, have the potential to implement the optimal strategy accurately. PMID:22884815

Do Principals Fire the Worst Teachers?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacob, Brian A.

2011-01-01

This article takes advantage of a unique policy change to examine how principals make decisions regarding teacher dismissal. In 2004, the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) and Chicago Teachers Union signed a new collective bargaining agreement that gave principals the flexibility to dismiss probationary teachers for any reason and without the…

Skimming the Surface: Teaching Kayak Support Strokes and Rolls.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Higgins, Peter; Morgan, Alastair

1997-01-01

Teaching novice kayakers only the biomechanics of a roll and other "closed" (nonadaptable) skills does not create opportunities for flexible skill development. A wider approach teaches support strokes and rolls by focusing on "open" skills that can be transferred or adapted to any situation, including emergency decision making,…

Solid Waste Management Planning--A Methodology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Theisen, Hilary M.; And Others

1975-01-01

This article presents a twofold solid waste management plan consisting of a basic design methodology and a decision-making methodology. The former provides a framework for the developing plan while the latter builds flexibility into the design so that there is a model for use during the planning process. (MA)

The Work/Family Challenge: A Key Career Development Issue.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahnweiler, William M; Kahnweiler, Jennifer B.

1992-01-01

A few corporations are responding to the impact of family structural changes on workers' ability to balance their roles with flexible benefits and schedules and with training. Work/family issues are an integral part of career and life decision making and must be incorporated into the career development process. (SK)

A Neural Circuit Model of Flexible Sensori-motor Mapping: Learning and Forgetting on Multiple Timescales

PubMed Central

Fusi, Stefano; Asaad, Wael F.; Miller, Earl K.; Wang, Xiao-Jing

2007-01-01

Summary Volitional behavior relies on the brain’s ability to remap sensory flow to motor programs whenever demanded by a changed behavioral context. To investigate the circuit basis of such flexible behavior, we have developed a biophysically-based decision-making network model of spiking neurons for arbitrary sensorimotor mapping. The model quantitatively reproduces behavioral and prefrontal single-cell data from an experiment in which monkeys learn visuo-motor associations that are reversed unpredictably from time to time. We show that when synaptic modifications occur on multiple timescales, the model behavior becomes flexible only when needed: slow components of learning usually dominate the decision process. However, if behavioral contexts change frequently enough, fast components of plasticity take over, and the behavior exhibits a quick forget-and-learn pattern. This model prediction is confirmed by monkey data. Therefore, our work reveals a scenario for conditional associative learning that is distinct from instant switching between sets of well established sensorimotor associations. PMID:17442251

A neural circuit model of flexible sensorimotor mapping: learning and forgetting on multiple timescales.

PubMed

Fusi, Stefano; Asaad, Wael F; Miller, Earl K; Wang, Xiao-Jing

2007-04-19

Volitional behavior relies on the brain's ability to remap sensory flow to motor programs whenever demanded by a changed behavioral context. To investigate the circuit basis of such flexible behavior, we have developed a biophysically based decision-making network model of spiking neurons for arbitrary sensorimotor mapping. The model quantitatively reproduces behavioral and prefrontal single-cell data from an experiment in which monkeys learn visuomotor associations that are reversed unpredictably from time to time. We show that when synaptic modifications occur on multiple timescales, the model behavior becomes flexible only when needed: slow components of learning usually dominate the decision process. However, if behavioral contexts change frequently enough, fast components of plasticity take over, and the behavior exhibits a quick forget-and-learn pattern. This model prediction is confirmed by monkey data. Therefore, our work reveals a scenario for conditional associative learning that is distinct from instant switching between sets of well-established sensorimotor associations.

Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

2017-04-01

Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

How Awareness Changes the Relative Weights of Evidence During Human Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Lamme, Victor A. F.; Dehaene, Stanislas

2011-01-01

Human decisions are based on accumulating evidence over time for different options. Here we ask a simple question: How is the accumulation of evidence affected by the level of awareness of the information? We examined the influence of awareness on decision-making using combined behavioral methods and magneto-encephalography (MEG). Participants were required to make decisions by accumulating evidence over a series of visually presented arrow stimuli whose visibility was modulated by masking. Behavioral results showed that participants could accumulate evidence under both high and low visibility. However, a top-down strategic modulation of the flow of incoming evidence was only present for stimuli with high visibility: once enough evidence had been accrued, participants strategically reduced the impact of new incoming stimuli. Also, decision-making speed and confidence were strongly modulated by the strength of the evidence for high-visible but not low-visible evidence, even though direct priming effects were identical for both types of stimuli. Neural recordings revealed that, while initial perceptual processing was independent of visibility, there was stronger top-down amplification for stimuli with high visibility than low visibility. Furthermore, neural markers of evidence accumulation over occipito-parietal cortex showed a strategic bias only for highly visible sensory information, speeding up processing and reducing neural computations related to the decision process. Our results indicate that the level of awareness of information changes decision-making: while accumulation of evidence already exists under low visibility conditions, high visibility allows evidence to be accumulated up to a higher level, leading to important strategical top-down changes in decision-making. Our results therefore suggest a potential role of awareness in deploying flexible strategies for biasing information acquisition in line with one's expectations and goals. PMID:22131904

How awareness changes the relative weights of evidence during human decision-making.

PubMed

de Lange, Floris P; van Gaal, Simon; Lamme, Victor A F; Dehaene, Stanislas

2011-11-01

Human decisions are based on accumulating evidence over time for different options. Here we ask a simple question: How is the accumulation of evidence affected by the level of awareness of the information? We examined the influence of awareness on decision-making using combined behavioral methods and magneto-encephalography (MEG). Participants were required to make decisions by accumulating evidence over a series of visually presented arrow stimuli whose visibility was modulated by masking. Behavioral results showed that participants could accumulate evidence under both high and low visibility. However, a top-down strategic modulation of the flow of incoming evidence was only present for stimuli with high visibility: once enough evidence had been accrued, participants strategically reduced the impact of new incoming stimuli. Also, decision-making speed and confidence were strongly modulated by the strength of the evidence for high-visible but not low-visible evidence, even though direct priming effects were identical for both types of stimuli. Neural recordings revealed that, while initial perceptual processing was independent of visibility, there was stronger top-down amplification for stimuli with high visibility than low visibility. Furthermore, neural markers of evidence accumulation over occipito-parietal cortex showed a strategic bias only for highly visible sensory information, speeding up processing and reducing neural computations related to the decision process. Our results indicate that the level of awareness of information changes decision-making: while accumulation of evidence already exists under low visibility conditions, high visibility allows evidence to be accumulated up to a higher level, leading to important strategical top-down changes in decision-making. Our results therefore suggest a potential role of awareness in deploying flexible strategies for biasing information acquisition in line with one's expectations and goals.

Towards a cognitive robotics methodology for reward-based decision-making: dynamical systems modelling of the Iowa Gambling Task

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, Robert; Ziemke, Tom

2010-09-01

The somatic marker hypothesis (SMH) posits that the role of emotions and mental states in decision-making manifests through bodily responses to stimuli of import to the organism's welfare. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), proposed by Bechara and Damasio in the mid-1990s, has provided the major source of empirical validation to the role of somatic markers in the service of flexible and cost-effective decision-making in humans. In recent years the IGT has been the subject of much criticism concerning: (1) whether measures of somatic markers reveal that they are important for decision-making as opposed to behaviour preparation; (2) the underlying neural substrate posited as critical to decision-making of the type relevant to the task; and (3) aspects of the methodological approach used, particularly on the canonical version of the task. In this paper, a cognitive robotics methodology is proposed to explore a dynamical systems approach as it applies to the neural computation of reward-based learning and issues concerning embodiment. This approach is particularly relevant in light of a strongly emerging alternative hypothesis to the SMH, the reversal learning hypothesis, which links, behaviourally and neurocomputationally, a number of more or less complex reward-based decision-making tasks, including the 'A-not-B' task - already subject to dynamical systems investigations with a focus on neural activation dynamics. It is also suggested that the cognitive robotics methodology may be used to extend systematically the IGT benchmark to more naturalised, but nevertheless controlled, settings that might better explore the extent to which the SMH, and somatic states per se, impact on complex decision-making.

What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?

PubMed Central

Beshears, John; Choi, James J.; Laibson, David; Madrian, Brigitte C.; Zeldes, Stephen P.

2013-01-01

We conduct and analyze two large surveys of hypothetical annuitization choices. We find that allowing individuals to annuitize a fraction of their wealth increases annuitization relative to a situation where annuitization is an “all or nothing” decision. Very few respondents choose declining real payout streams over flat or increasing real payout streams of equivalent expected present value. Highlighting the effects of inflation increases demand for cost of living adjustments. Frames that highlight flexibility, control, and investment significantly reduce annuitization. A majority of respondents prefer to receive an extra “bonus” payment during one month of the year that is funded by slightly lower payments in the remaining months. Concerns about later-life income, spending flexibility, and counterparty risk are the most important self-reported motives that influence the annuitization decision. PMID:24954961

Return to play after hamstring injuries in football (soccer): a worldwide Delphi procedure regarding definition, medical criteria and decision-making.

PubMed

van der Horst, Nick; Backx, Fjg; Goedhart, Edwin A; Huisstede, Bionka Ma

2017-11-01

There are three major questions about return to play (RTP) after hamstring injuries: How should RTP be defined? Which medical criteria should support the RTP decision? And who should make the RTP decision? The study aimed to provide a clear RTP definition and medical criteria for RTP and to clarify RTP consultation and responsibilities after hamstring injury. The study used the Delphi procedure. The results of a systematic review were used as a starting point for the Delphi procedure. Fifty-eight experts in the field of hamstring injury management selected by 28 FIFA Medical Centres of Excellence worldwide participated. Each Delphi round consisted of a questionnaire, an analysis and an anonymised feedback report. After four Delphi rounds, with more than 83% response for each round, consensus was achieved that RTP should be defined as 'the moment a player has received criteria-based medical clearance and is mentally ready for full availability for match selection and/or full training'. The experts reached consensus on the following criteria to support the RTP decision: medical staff clearance, absence of pain on palpation, absence of pain during strength and flexibility testing, absence of pain during/after functional testing, similar hamstring flexibility, performance on field testing, and psychological readiness. It was also agreed that RTP decisions should be based on shared decision-making, primarily via consultation with the athlete, sports physician, physiotherapist, fitness trainer and team coach. The consensus regarding aspects of RTP should provide clarity and facilitate the assessment of when RTP is appropriate after hamstring injury, so as to avoid or reduce the risk of injury recurrence because of a premature RTP. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A web-based multicriteria evaluation of spatial trade-offs between environmental and economic implications from hydraulic fracturing in a shale gas region in Ohio.

PubMed

Liu, X; Gorsevski, P V; Yacobucci, M M; Onasch, C M

2016-06-01

Planning of shale gas infrastructure and drilling sites for hydraulic fracturing has important spatial implications. The evaluation of conflicting and competing objectives requires an explicit consideration of multiple criteria as they have important environmental and economic implications. This study presents a web-based multicriteria spatial decision support system (SDSS) prototype with a flexible and user-friendly interface that could provide educational or decision-making capabilities with respect to hydraulic fracturing site selection in eastern Ohio. One of the main features of this SDSS is to emphasize potential trade-offs between important factors of environmental and economic ramifications from hydraulic fracturing activities using a weighted linear combination (WLC) method. In the prototype, the GIS-enabled analytical components allow spontaneous visualization of available alternatives on maps which provide value-added features for decision support processes and derivation of final decision maps. The SDSS prototype also facilitates nonexpert participation capabilities using a mapping module, decision-making tool, group decision module, and social media sharing tools. The logical flow of successively presented forms and standardized criteria maps is used to generate visualization of trade-off scenarios and alternative solutions tailored to individual user's preferences that are graphed for subsequent decision-making.

Conflict between place and response navigation strategies: effects on vicarious trial and error (VTE) behaviors.

PubMed

Schmidt, Brandy; Papale, Andrew; Redish, A David; Markus, Etan J

2013-02-15

Navigation can be accomplished through multiple decision-making strategies, using different information-processing computations. A well-studied dichotomy in these decision-making strategies compares hippocampal-dependent "place" and dorsal-lateral striatal-dependent "response" strategies. A place strategy depends on the ability to flexibly respond to environmental cues, while a response strategy depends on the ability to quickly recognize and react to situations with well-learned action-outcome relationships. When rats reach decision points, they sometimes pause and orient toward the potential routes of travel, a process termed vicarious trial and error (VTE). VTE co-occurs with neurophysiological information processing, including sweeps of representation ahead of the animal in the hippocampus and transient representations of reward in the ventral striatum and orbitofrontal cortex. To examine the relationship between VTE and the place/response strategy dichotomy, we analyzed data in which rats were cued to switch between place and response strategies on a plus maze. The configuration of the maze allowed for place and response strategies to work competitively or cooperatively. Animals showed increased VTE on trials entailing competition between navigational systems, linking VTE with deliberative decision-making. Even in a well-learned task, VTE was preferentially exhibited when a spatial selection was required, further linking VTE behavior with decision-making associated with hippocampal processing.

Education and parental involvement in decision-making about newborn screening: understanding goals to clarify content.

PubMed

Potter, Beth K; Etchegary, Holly; Nicholls, Stuart G; Wilson, Brenda J; Craigie, Samantha M; Araia, Makda H

2015-06-01

A challenge in designing effective education for parents about newborn screening (NBS) has been uncertainty about appropriate content. Arguing that the goals of education may be usefully tied to parental decision-making, we sought to: (1) explore how different ways of implementing NBS differ in their approaches to parental engagement in decision-making; (2) map the potential goals of education onto these "implementation models"; and (3) consider the content that may be needed to support these goals. The resulting conceptual framework supports the availability of comprehensive information about NBS for parents, irrespective of the model of implementation. This is largely because we argue that meeting parental expectations and preferences for communication is an important goal regardless of whether or notparents are actively involved in making a decision. Our analysis supports a flexible approach, in which some educational messages are emphasized as important for all parents to understand while others are made available depending on parents' preferences. We have begun to define the content of NBS education for parents needed to support specific goals. Further research and discussion is important to determine the most appropriate strategies for delivering the tailored approach to education that emerged from our analysis.

A Markovian state-space framework for integrating flexibility into space system design decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafleur, Jarret M.

The past decades have seen the state of the art in aerospace system design progress from a scope of simple optimization to one including robustness, with the objective of permitting a single system to perform well even in off-nominal future environments. Integrating flexibility, or the capability to easily modify a system after it has been fielded in response to changing environments, into system design represents a further step forward. One challenge in accomplishing this rests in that the decision-maker must consider not only the present system design decision, but also sequential future design and operation decisions. Despite extensive interest in the topic, the state of the art in designing flexibility into aerospace systems, and particularly space systems, tends to be limited to analyses that are qualitative, deterministic, single-objective, and/or limited to consider a single future time period. To address these gaps, this thesis develops a stochastic, multi-objective, and multi-period framework for integrating flexibility into space system design decisions. Central to the framework are five steps. First, system configuration options are identified and costs of switching from one configuration to another are compiled into a cost transition matrix. Second, probabilities that demand on the system will transition from one mission to another are compiled into a mission demand Markov chain. Third, one performance matrix for each design objective is populated to describe how well the identified system configurations perform in each of the identified mission demand environments. The fourth step employs multi-period decision analysis techniques, including Markov decision processes from the field of operations research, to find efficient paths and policies a decision-maker may follow. The final step examines the implications of these paths and policies for the primary goal of informing initial system selection. Overall, this thesis unifies state-centric concepts of flexibility from economics and engineering literature with sequential decision-making techniques from operations research. The end objective of this thesis’ framework and its supporting tools is to enable selection of the next-generation space systems today, tailored to decision-maker budget and performance preferences, that will be best able to adapt and perform in a future of changing environments and requirements. Following extensive theoretical development, the framework and its steps are applied to space system planning problems of (1) DARPA-motivated multiple- or distributed-payload satellite selection and (2) NASA human space exploration architecture selection.

Translational studies of goal-directed action as a framework for classifying deficits across psychiatric disorders

PubMed Central

Griffiths, Kristi R.; Morris, Richard W.; Balleine, Bernard W.

2014-01-01

The ability to learn contingencies between actions and outcomes in a dynamic environment is critical for flexible, adaptive behavior. Goal-directed actions adapt to changes in action-outcome contingencies as well as to changes in the reward-value of the outcome. When networks involved in reward processing and contingency learning are maladaptive, this fundamental ability can be lost, with detrimental consequences for decision-making. Impaired decision-making is a core feature in a number of psychiatric disorders, ranging from depression to schizophrenia. The argument can be developed, therefore, that seemingly disparate symptoms across psychiatric disorders can be explained by dysfunction within common decision-making circuitry. From this perspective, gaining a better understanding of the neural processes involved in goal-directed action, will allow a comparison of deficits observed across traditional diagnostic boundaries within a unified theoretical framework. This review describes the key processes and neural circuits involved in goal-directed decision-making using evidence from animal studies and human neuroimaging. Select studies are discussed to outline what we currently know about causal judgments regarding actions and their consequences, action-related reward evaluation, and, most importantly, how these processes are integrated in goal-directed learning and performance. Finally, we look at how adaptive decision-making is impaired across a range of psychiatric disorders and how deepening our understanding of this circuitry may offer insights into phenotypes and more targeted interventions. PMID:24904322

Averaging business cycles vs. myopia: Do we need a long term vision when developing IRP?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDonald, C.; Gupta, P.C.

1995-05-01

Utility demand forecasting is inherently imprecise due to the number of uncertainties resulting from business cycles, policy making, technology breakthroughs, national and international political upheavals and the limitations of the forecasting tools. This implies that revisions based primarily on recent experience could lead to unstable forecasts. Moreover, new planning tools are required that provide an explicit consideration of uncertainty and lead to flexible and robust planning tools are required that provide an explicit consideration of uncertainty and lead to flexible and robust planning decisions.

Multitasking as a choice: a perspective.

PubMed

Broeker, Laura; Liepelt, Roman; Poljac, Edita; Künzell, Stefan; Ewolds, Harald; de Oliveira, Rita F; Raab, Markus

2018-01-01

Performance decrements in multitasking have been explained by limitations in cognitive capacity, either modelled as static structural bottlenecks or as the scarcity of overall cognitive resources that prevent humans, or at least restrict them, from processing two tasks at the same time. However, recent research has shown that individual differences, flexible resource allocation, and prioritization of tasks cannot be fully explained by these accounts. We argue that understanding human multitasking as a choice and examining multitasking performance from the perspective of judgment and decision-making (JDM), may complement current dual-task theories. We outline two prominent theories from the area of JDM, namely Simple Heuristics and the Decision Field Theory, and adapt these theories to multitasking research. Here, we explain how computational modelling techniques and decision-making parameters used in JDM may provide a benefit to understanding multitasking costs and argue that these techniques and parameters have the potential to predict multitasking behavior in general, and also individual differences in behavior. Finally, we present the one-reason choice metaphor to explain a flexible use of limited capacity as well as changes in serial and parallel task processing. Based on this newly combined approach, we outline a concrete interdisciplinary future research program that we think will help to further develop multitasking research.

Towards public health decision support: a systematic review of bidirectional communication approaches.

PubMed

Dixon, Brian E; Gamache, Roland E; Grannis, Shaun J

2013-05-01

To summarize the literature describing computer-based interventions aimed at improving bidirectional communication between clinical and public health. A systematic review of English articles using MEDLINE and Google Scholar. Search terms included public health, epidemiology, electronic health records, decision support, expert systems, and decision-making. Only articles that described the communication of information regarding emerging health threats from public health agencies to clinicians or provider organizations were included. Each article was independently reviewed by two authors. Ten peer-reviewed articles highlight a nascent but promising area of research and practice related to alerting clinicians about emerging threats. Current literature suggests that additional research and development in bidirectional communication infrastructure should focus on defining a coherent architecture, improving interoperability, establishing clear governance, and creating usable systems that will effectively deliver targeted, specific information to clinicians in support of patient and population decision-making. Increasingly available clinical information systems make it possible to deliver timely, relevant knowledge to frontline clinicians in support of population health. Future work should focus on developing a flexible, interoperable infrastructure for bidirectional communications capable of integrating public health knowledge into clinical systems and workflows.

Use of multiattribute utility theory for formulary management in a health system.

PubMed

Chung, Seonyoung; Kim, Sooyon; Kim, Jeongmee; Sohn, Kieho

2010-01-15

The application, utility, and flexibility of the multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) when used as a formulary decision methodology in a Korean medical center were evaluated. A drug analysis model using MAUT consisting of 10 steps was designed for two drug classes of dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers (CCBs) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs). These two drug classes contain the most diverse agents among cardiovascular drugs on Samsung Medical Center's drug formulary. The attributes identified for inclusion in the drug analysis model were effectiveness, safety, patient convenience, and cost, with relative weights of 50%, 30%, 10%, and 10%, respectively. The factors were incorporated into the model to quantify the contribution of each attribute. For each factor, a utility scale of 0-100 was established, and the total utility score for each alternative was calculated. An attempt was made to make the model adaptable to changing health care and regulatory circumstances. The analysis revealed amlodipine besylate to be an alternative agent, with the highest total utility score among the dihydropyridine CCBs, while barnidipine hydrochloride had the lowest score. For ARBs, losartan potassium had the greatest total utility score, while olmesartan medoxomil had the lowest. A drug analysis model based on the MAUT was successfully developed and used in making formulary decisions for dihydropyridine CCBs and ARBs for a Korean health system. The model incorporates sufficient utility and flexibility of a drug's attributes and can be used as an alternative decision-making tool for formulary management in health systems.

What does the new breed of decision-making methodologies mean for choices and norms in hydrological science?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wikman-Svahn, Per

2013-04-01

Hydrological sciences are increasingly utilized in decision-making contexts that need to manage deep uncertainty, changing conditions and very long-lead times and lifetimes. Traditional optimizing approaches become problematic in such situations. For example, optimizing approaches may underestimate the importance of low probability outcomes, or very uncertain outcomes. Alternative decision-making strategies are therefore increasingly used in hydrological applications, including "bottom-up/top-down", "context-first", "decision-scaling", "assess risk of policy", "robust", "resilient" or "flexible" approaches. These kinds of strategies are typically designed to handle very uncertain and diverse outcomes, and often start from the particular decision-making context, in contrast to more traditional "predict-then-act" or "science first" approaches. Contemporary research in philosophy of science stress the influence of value judgments and norms in scientific assessments. In particular, this literature points out that implicit anticipated applications often influence choices made in scientific assessments. Furthermore, this literature also emphasize that choices made at within scientific assessments have consequences for decision-making later on. One reason is that it is often difficult for decision-makers to see what choices are made and the implications of these choices. Another reason is that information that could be of use for decision-makers are lost at an early stage. For example, the choice to focus on central estimates and not providing assessments on more unlikely outcomes is a choice that has consequences for what outcomes are taken into account in the decision-making process. This paper develops this argument and then analyzes the implications of these new developments for hydrological science. One implication of the increasing use of the new breed of planning strategies is that a broader range of uncertainty in scientific assessments becomes desirable in order to fully benefit from the power of the new decision-making strategies. Another implication is that bayesian probability assessments become more important. Finally, advantages and risks involved in changing scientific assessments in order to anticipate the new decision-making strategies are discussed.

SAMICS Validation. SAMICS Support Study, Phase 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

SAMICS provides a consistent basis for estimating array costs and compares production technology costs. A review and a validation of the SAMICS model are reported. The review had the following purposes: (1) to test the computational validity of the computer model by comparison with preliminary hand calculations based on conventional cost estimating techniques; (2) to review and improve the accuracy of the cost relationships being used by the model: and (3) to provide an independent verification to users of the model's value in decision making for allocation of research and developement funds and for investment in manufacturing capacity. It is concluded that the SAMICS model is a flexible, accurate, and useful tool for managerial decision making.

PSYCHE: An Object-Oriented Approach to Simulating Medical Education

PubMed Central

Mullen, Jamie A.

1990-01-01

Traditional approaches to computer-assisted instruction (CAI) do not provide realistic simulations of medical education, in part because they do not utilize heterogeneous knowledge bases for their source of domain knowledge. PSYCHE, a CAI program designed to teach hypothetico-deductive psychiatric decision-making to medical students, uses an object-oriented implementation of an intelligent tutoring system (ITS) to model the student, domain expert, and tutor. It models the transactions between the participants in complex transaction chains, and uses heterogeneous knowledge bases to represent both domain and procedural knowledge in clinical medicine. This object-oriented approach is a flexible and dynamic approach to modeling, and represents a potentially valuable tool for the investigation of medical education and decision-making.

Impaired flexibility in decision making in rats after administration of the pharmacological stressor yohimbine.

PubMed

Schwager, Andrea L; Haack, Andrew K; Taha, Sharif A

2014-10-01

Stress-induced disruption of decision making has been hypothesized to contribute to drug-seeking behaviors and addiction. Noradrenergic signaling plays a central role in mediating stress responses. However, the effects of acute stress on decision making, and the role of noradrenergic signaling in regulating these effects, have not been well characterized. To characterize changes in decision making caused by acute pharmacological stress, the effects of yohimbine (an α2-adrenergic antagonist) were examined in a delay discounting task. Noradrenergic contributions to decision making were further characterized by examining the effects of propranolol (a β antagonist), prazosin (an α1 antagonist), and guanfacine (an α2 agonist). Sprague-Dawley rats were administered drugs prior to performance on a delay discounting task, in which the delay preceding the large reward increased within each session (ascending delays). To dissociate drug-induced changes in delay sensitivity from behavioral inflexibility, drug effects were subsequently tested in a modified version of the discounting task, in which the delay preceding the large reward decreased within each session (descending delays). Yohimbine increased choice of the large reward when tested with ascending delays but decreased choice of the same large reward when tested with descending delays, suggesting that drug effects could be attributed to perseverative choice of the lever preferred at the beginning of the session. Propranolol increased choice of the large reward when tested with ascending delays. Prazosin and guanfacine had no effect on reward choice. The stress-like effects of yohimbine administration may impair decision making by causing inflexible, perseverative behavior.

A Flexible Latent Class Approach to Estimating Test-Score Reliability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Palm, Daniël W.; van der Ark, L. Andries; Sijtsma, Klaas

2014-01-01

The latent class reliability coefficient (LCRC) is improved by using the divisive latent class model instead of the unrestricted latent class model. This results in the divisive latent class reliability coefficient (DLCRC), which unlike LCRC avoids making subjective decisions about the best solution and thus avoids judgment error. A computational…

The Functioning of Autonomous Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rao, V. Pala Prasada; Rao, Digumarti Bhaskara

2012-01-01

The college gets separated from the university, though not completely, when it is an autonomous college, which is practice in India. Academic package will become flexible and the decision-making is internalized, changes and updating could be easily carried out, depending on the need as reflected from the feedback taken from alumni, user sectors,…

Do Principals Fire the Worst Teachers? NBER Working Paper No. 15715

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacob, Brian A.

2010-01-01

This paper takes advantage of a unique policy change to examine how principals make decisions regarding teacher dismissal. In 2004, the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) and Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) signed a new collective bargaining agreement that gave principals the flexibility to dismiss probationary teachers for any reason and without the…

Let's Start Leveling about Leveling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glasswell, Kath; Ford, Michael

2011-01-01

In this article, the authors propose a revised way of thinking about reading levels, one that promotes a wider and more flexible view of teacher decision making about the use of leveled texts in classrooms. They share five key principles to consider when looking at the use of instruction that involves matching leveled materials with readers.…

76 FR 55370 - Commission Information Collection Activities (FERC-549B); Comment Request; Submitted for OMB Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-07

... regulations regarding scheduling, segmentation and flexible point rights, penalties, and reporting... needed to make informed decisions in a competitive market as well as to improve shipper's and the Commission's ability to monitor the market for potential abuses. This order also required company postings to...

Teaching Mathematics by Comparison: Analog Visibility as a Double-Edged Sword

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Begolli, Kreshnik Nasi; Richland, Lindsey Engle

2016-01-01

Comparing multiple solutions to a single problem is an important mode for developing flexible mathematical thinking, yet instructionally leading this activity is challenging (Stein, Engle, Smith, & Hughes, 2008). We test 1 decision teachers must make after having students solve a problem: whether to only verbally discuss students' solutions or…

78 FR 17660 - Draft Guidance for E85 Flexible Fuel Vehicle Weighting Factor for Model Years 2016-2019 Vehicles...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-22

... ``Confidential Business Information'' (``CBI''). If a person making comments wants EPA to base its decision on a... special arrangements should be made for deliveries of boxed information. On-Line Instructions for... http://www.regulations.gov , including any personal information provided, unless the comment includes...

Flexible Conflict Management: Conflict Avoidance and Conflict Adjustment in Reactive Cognitive Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dignath, David; Kiesel, Andrea; Eder, Andreas B.

2015-01-01

Conflict processing is assumed to serve two crucial, yet distinct functions: Regarding task performance, control is adjusted to overcome the conflict. Regarding task choice, control is harnessed to bias decision making away from the source of conflict. Despite recent theoretical progress, until now two lines of research addressed these…

The Cultural Understanding of Inclusion and Its Development within a Centralised System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strogilos, Vasilis

2012-01-01

This paper discusses inclusion in relation to centralised systems, in particular the constraints central control makes upon decisions at school level. The discussion is empowered by an evaluative case study research undertaken to understand the development of inclusion in contexts where flexible teaching and curriculum change are sometimes hard to…

Strategy Generalization across Orientation Tasks: Testing a Computational Cognitive Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gunzelmann, Glenn

2008-01-01

Humans use their spatial information processing abilities flexibly to facilitate problem solving and decision making in a variety of tasks. This article explores the question of whether a general strategy can be adapted for performing two different spatial orientation tasks by testing the predictions of a computational cognitive model. Human…

Prevention of Teacher Burnout: The Challenge of the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Doris B.; And Others

Strategies that may be used by schools to prevent teacher burnout suggested in this paper are: (1) increasing staff input in decision making; (2) improving the work environment; (3) increasing the flexibility of the school structure; (4) providing opportunities for individual time-out; (5) increasing the sense of individual work significance; and…

An Ensemble-Based Forecasting Framework to Optimize Reservoir Releases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.

2017-12-01

Increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events are stressing the need to manage water resources on shorter timescales. Short-term management of water resources becomes proactive when inflow forecasts are available and this information can be effectively used in the control strategy. This work investigates the utility of short term hydrological ensemble forecasts for operational decision making during extreme weather events. An advanced automated hydrologic prediction framework integrating a regional scale hydrologic model, GIS datasets and the meteorological ensemble predictions from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) was coupled to an implicit multi-objective dynamic programming model to optimize releases from a water supply reservoir. The proposed methodology was evaluated by retrospectively forecasting the inflows to the Oradell reservoir in the Hackensack River basin in New Jersey during the extreme hydrologic event, Hurricane Irene. Additionally, the flexibility of the forecasting framework was investigated by forecasting the inflows from a moderate rainfall event to provide important perspectives on using the framework to assist reservoir operations during moderate events. The proposed forecasting framework seeks to provide a flexible, assistive tool to alleviate the complexity of operational decision-making.

[Normal aging of frontal lobe functions].

PubMed

Calso, Cristina; Besnard, Jérémy; Allain, Philippe

2016-03-01

Normal aging in individuals is often associated with morphological, metabolic and cognitive changes, which particularly concern the cerebral frontal regions. Starting from the "frontal lobe hypothesis of cognitive aging" (West, 1996), the present review is based on the neuroanatomical model developed by Stuss (2008), introducing four categories of frontal lobe functions: executive control, behavioural and emotional self-regulation and decision-making, energization and meta-cognitive functions. The selected studies only address the changes of one at least of these functions. The results suggest a deterioration of several cognitive frontal abilities in normal aging: flexibility, inhibition, planning, verbal fluency, implicit decision-making, second-order and affective theory of mind. Normal aging seems also to be characterised by a general reduction in processing speed observed during neuropsychological assessment (Salthouse, 1996). Nevertheless many cognitive functions remain preserved such as automatic or non-conscious inhibition, specific capacities of flexibility and first-order theory of mind. Therefore normal aging doesn't seem to be associated with a global cognitive decline but rather with a selective change in some frontal systems, conclusion which should be taken into account for designing caring programs in normal aging.

Believer-Skeptic Meets Actor-Critic: Rethinking the Role of Basal Ganglia Pathways during Decision-Making and Reinforcement Learning

PubMed Central

Dunovan, Kyle; Verstynen, Timothy

2016-01-01

The flexibility of behavioral control is a testament to the brain's capacity for dynamically resolving uncertainty during goal-directed actions. This ability to select actions and learn from immediate feedback is driven by the dynamics of basal ganglia (BG) pathways. A growing body of empirical evidence conflicts with the traditional view that these pathways act as independent levers for facilitating (i.e., direct pathway) or suppressing (i.e., indirect pathway) motor output, suggesting instead that they engage in a dynamic competition during action decisions that computationally captures action uncertainty. Here we discuss the utility of encoding action uncertainty as a dynamic competition between opposing control pathways and provide evidence that this simple mechanism may have powerful implications for bridging neurocomputational theories of decision making and reinforcement learning. PMID:27047328

Believer-Skeptic Meets Actor-Critic: Rethinking the Role of Basal Ganglia Pathways during Decision-Making and Reinforcement Learning.

PubMed

Dunovan, Kyle; Verstynen, Timothy

2016-01-01

The flexibility of behavioral control is a testament to the brain's capacity for dynamically resolving uncertainty during goal-directed actions. This ability to select actions and learn from immediate feedback is driven by the dynamics of basal ganglia (BG) pathways. A growing body of empirical evidence conflicts with the traditional view that these pathways act as independent levers for facilitating (i.e., direct pathway) or suppressing (i.e., indirect pathway) motor output, suggesting instead that they engage in a dynamic competition during action decisions that computationally captures action uncertainty. Here we discuss the utility of encoding action uncertainty as a dynamic competition between opposing control pathways and provide evidence that this simple mechanism may have powerful implications for bridging neurocomputational theories of decision making and reinforcement learning.

Why bother with the brain? A role for decision neuroscience in understanding strategic variability.

PubMed

Venkatraman, Vinod

2013-01-01

Neuroscience, by its nature, seems to hold considerable promise for understanding the fundamental mechanisms of decision making. In recent years, several studies in the domain of "neuroeconomics" or "decision neuroscience" have provided important insights into brain function. Yet, the apparent success and value of each of these domains are frequently called into question by researchers in economics and behavioral decision making. Critics often charge that knowledge about the brain is unnecessary for understanding decision preferences. In this chapter, I contend that knowledge about underlying brain mechanisms helps in the development of biologically plausible models of behavior, which can then help elucidate the mechanisms underlying individual choice biases and strategic preferences. Using a novel risky choice paradigm, I will demonstrate that people vary in whether they adopt compensatory or noncompensatory rules in economic decision making. Importantly, neuroimaging studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging reveal that distinct neural mechanisms support variability in choices and variability in strategic preferences. Converging evidence from a study involving decisions between hypothetical stocks illustrates how knowledge about the underlying mechanisms can help inform neuroanatomical models of cognitive control. Last, I will demonstrate how knowledge about these underlying neural mechanisms can provide novel insights into the effects of decision states like sleep deprivation on decision preferences. Together, these findings suggest that neuroscience can play a critical role in creating robust and flexible models of real-world decision behavior. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance evaluation of automated manufacturing systems using generalized stochastic Petri Nets. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Jaar, Robert Y.; Desrochers, Alan A.

1989-01-01

The main objective of this research is to develop a generic modeling methodology with a flexible and modular framework to aid in the design and performance evaluation of integrated manufacturing systems using a unified model. After a thorough examination of the available modeling methods, the Petri Net approach was adopted. The concurrent and asynchronous nature of manufacturing systems are easily captured by Petri Net models. Three basic modules were developed: machine, buffer, and Decision Making Unit. The machine and buffer modules are used for modeling transfer lines and production networks. The Decision Making Unit models the functions of a computer node in a complex Decision Making Unit Architecture. The underlying model is a Generalized Stochastic Petri Net (GSPN) that can be used for performance evaluation and structural analysis. GSPN's were chosen because they help manage the complexity of modeling large manufacturing systems. There is no need to enumerate all the possible states of the Markov Chain since they are automatically generated from the GSPN model.

Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

PubMed

Heller, Stephen

2006-03-17

Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new information into our assessments. MCDM techniques offer flexibility in accessing comparison within broad data sets to reflect our best estimation of their importance towards contribution to the risk picture. This allows for the accurate determination of the more probable and more consequential issues. This can later be refined using more intensive risk techniques and the avoidance of less critical issues.

Impact of anxiety on prefrontal cortex encoding of cognitive flexibility

PubMed Central

Park, Junchol; Moghaddam, Bita

2016-01-01

Anxiety often is studied as a stand-alone construct in laboratory models. But in the context of coping with real-life anxiety, its negative impacts extend beyond aversive feelings and involve disruptions in ongoing goal-directed behaviors and cognitive functioning. Critical examples of cognitive constructs affected by anxiety are cognitive flexibility and decision making. In particular, anxiety impedes the ability to shift flexibly between strategies in response to changes in task demands, as well as the ability to maintain a strategy in the presence of distractors. The brain region most critically involved in behavioral flexibility is the prefrontal cortex (PFC), but little is known about how anxiety impacts PFC encoding of internal and external events that are critical for flexible behavior. Here we review animal and human neurophysiological and neuroimaging studies implicating PFC neural processing in anxiety-induced deficits in cognitive flexibility. We then suggest experimental and analytical approaches for future studies to gain a better mechanistic understanding of impaired cognitive inflexibility in anxiety and related disorders. PMID:27316551

Does depression matter in neuropsychological performances in anorexia nervosa? A descriptive review.

PubMed

Abbate-Daga, Giovanni; Buzzichelli, Sara; Marzola, Enrica; Aloi, Matteo; Amianto, Federico; Fassino, Secondo

2015-09-01

This review aims to examine the impact of depressive symptoms on the assessment of cognitive flexibility, central coherence, and decision-making in individuals with anorexia nervosa (AN). An online search was carried out using PubMed and PsycInfo. Articles were selected for review if they were published in English between 1990 and 2014 and used the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, the Trail Making Task parts A and B, the Brixton Test, the Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure Test, and/or the Iowa Gambling Task. Sixty-two studies were included. Thirty (48%) of the studies statistically assessed the association between depression and neurocognition in AN versus healthy controls. Where significant correlations were found, it became clear that the more serious the depression, the greater the neuropsychological impairment. Only six (10%) studies examined whether increased depressive symptoms were able to eliminate the differences between individuals with AN and healthy controls, and one study found that depressive symptoms did eliminate group differences in cognitive flexibility and decision-making. Only a subgroup of articles on neuropsychology in AN adjusted for depression. However, given the role of depression that some articles suggest, future studies should pay closer attention to the evaluation of this potential confounder. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Financial capacity in older adults: a growing concern for clinicians.

PubMed

Gardiner, Paul A; Byrne, Gerard J; Mitchell, Leander K; Pachana, Nancy A

2015-02-02

Older people with cognitive impairment and/or dementia may be particularly vulnerable to diminished financial decision-making capacity. Financial capacity refers to the ability to satisfactorily manage one's financial affairs in a manner consistent with personal self-interest and values. Impairment of financial capacity makes the older individual vulnerable to financial exploitation, may negatively affect their family's financial situation and places strain on relationships within the family. Clinicians are often on the front line of responding to queries regarding decision-making capacity, and clinical evaluation options are often not well understood. Assessment of financial capacity should include formal objective assessment in addition to a clinical interview and gathering contextual data. Development of a flexible, empirically supported and clinically relevant assessment approach that spans all dimensions of financial capacity yet is simple enough to be used by non-specialist clinicians is needed.

Clinical, information and business process modeling to promote development of safe and flexible software.

PubMed

Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Deveny, Elizabeth; Morrison, Iain; Lewis, Bryn

2006-09-01

Using a factorial vignette survey and modeling methodology, we developed clinical and information models - incorporating evidence base, key concepts, relevant terms, decision-making and workflow needed to practice safely and effectively - to guide the development of an integrated rule-based knowledge module to support prescribing decisions in asthma. We identified workflows, decision-making factors, factor use, and clinician information requirements. The Unified Modeling Language (UML) and public domain software and knowledge engineering tools (e.g. Protégé) were used, with the Australian GP Data Model as the starting point for expressing information needs. A Web Services service-oriented architecture approach was adopted within which to express functional needs, and clinical processes and workflows were expressed in the Business Process Execution Language (BPEL). This formal analysis and modeling methodology to define and capture the process and logic of prescribing best practice in a reference implementation is fundamental to tackling deficiencies in prescribing decision support software.

Unconscious relational inference recruits the hippocampus.

PubMed

Reber, Thomas P; Luechinger, Roger; Boesiger, Peter; Henke, Katharina

2012-05-02

Relational inference denotes the capacity to encode, flexibly retrieve, and integrate multiple memories to combine past experiences to update knowledge and improve decision-making in new situations. Although relational inference is thought to depend on the hippocampus and consciousness, we now show in young, healthy men that it may occur outside consciousness but still recruits the hippocampus. In temporally distinct and unique subliminal episodes, we presented word pairs that either overlapped ("winter-red", "red-computer") or not. Effects of unconscious relational inference emerged in reaction times recorded during unconscious encoding and in the outcome of decisions made 1 min later at test, when participants judged the semantic relatedness of two supraliminal words. These words were either episodically related through a common word ("winter-computer" related through "red") or unrelated. Hippocampal activity increased during the unconscious encoding of overlapping versus nonoverlapping word pairs and during the unconscious retrieval of episodically related versus unrelated words. Furthermore, hippocampal activity during unconscious encoding predicted the outcome of decisions made at test. Hence, unconscious inference may influence decision-making in new situations.

Principled Moral Sentiment and the Flexibility of Moral Judgment and Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartels, Daniel M.

2008-01-01

Three studies test eight hypotheses about (1) how judgment differs between people who ascribe greater vs. less moral relevance to choices, (2) how moral judgment is subject to task constraints that shift evaluative focus (to moral rules vs. to consequences), and (3) how differences in the propensity to rely on intuitive reactions affect judgment.…

Analyzing the Cost Efficiency of Academic Departments and Instructional Personnel at State Universities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norris, Robert G.

A cost-effectiveness model is presented for academic administrators to use in making evaluation and planning decisions related directly to the instructional activities of academic departments. The advantages seen in the model are that it is simple and flexible, concentrates on balancing income generated by the department to expenses incurred, and…

Making Decisions with the Future in Mind: Developmental and Comparative Identification of Mental Time Travel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suddendorf, T.; Busby, J.

2005-01-01

Mechanisms that produce behavior which increase future survival chances provide an adaptive advantage. The flexibility of human behavior is at least partly the result of one such mechanism, our ability to travel mentally in time and entertain potential future scenarios. We can study mental time travel in children using language. Current results…

The Italian Version of the Cognitive Style Indicator and Its Association with Decision-Making Preferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miceli, Silvana; de Palo, Valeria; Monacis, Lucia; Cardaci, Maurizio; Sinatra, Maria

2018-01-01

The Cognitive Style Indicator (CoSI) includes 3 cognitive dimensions: creating (flexible, open-ended and inventive), knowing (emphasizing facts, details, objectivity, and rationality), and planning (guided by preferences for certainty and well-structured information). The first aim of this research was to validate the 3-factor structure of the…

Exploring Two Secondary Social Studies Teachers' Pedagogical Decision Making in Constrained and Flexible Curricular Contexts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meuwissen, Kevin William

2012-01-01

With current trends in K-12 education toward curriculum centralization and high-stakes test-based accountability, teachers are in a position of increasingly adapting their practices to demands that originate beyond the classroom. A synthesis of literature on the relationship between these external influences and secondary social studies teaching…

Food Business Entrepreneurship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Peter

Though not a very traditional career path for food scientists, one option is to go into business for yourself by starting a food business. Food business entrepreneurship is a difficult career that entails long work hours, extensive decision making, and tasks that require knowledge beyond food science. However, there is high potential for rewards, including financial rewards, career progression, and personal flexibility.

Academic Libraries as High-Tech Gateways: A Guide to Design & Space Decisions. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bazillion, Richard J.; Braun, Connie L.

This book, based on research about libraries around the country, provides tools that can be used for planning and building an academic library space that streamlines access to information. It explains how to incorporate the latest innovations in academic library facility design; how to make the facility flexible for changing information technology…

Behavioral and Neural Signatures of Reduced Updating of Alternative Options in Alcohol-Dependent Patients during Flexible Decision-Making.

PubMed

Reiter, Andrea M F; Deserno, Lorenz; Kallert, Thomas; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Heinz, Andreas; Schlagenhauf, Florian

2016-10-26

Addicted individuals continue substance use despite the knowledge of harmful consequences and often report having no choice but to consume. Computational psychiatry accounts have linked this clinical observation to difficulties in making flexible and goal-directed decisions in dynamic environments via consideration of potential alternative choices. To probe this in alcohol-dependent patients (n = 43) versus healthy volunteers (n = 35), human participants performed an anticorrelated decision-making task during functional neuroimaging. Via computational modeling, we investigated behavioral and neural signatures of inference regarding the alternative option. While healthy control subjects exploited the anticorrelated structure of the task to guide decision-making, alcohol-dependent patients were relatively better explained by a model-free strategy due to reduced inference on the alternative option after punishment. Whereas model-free prediction error signals were preserved, alcohol-dependent patients exhibited blunted medial prefrontal signatures of inference on the alternative option. This reduction was associated with patients' behavioral deficit in updating the alternative choice option and their obsessive-compulsive drinking habits. All results remained significant when adjusting for potential confounders (e.g., neuropsychological measures and gray matter density). A disturbed integration of alternative choice options implemented by the medial prefrontal cortex appears to be one important explanation for the puzzling question of why addicted individuals continue drug consumption despite negative consequences. In addiction, patients maintain substance use despite devastating consequences and often report having no choice but to consume. These clinical observations have been theoretically linked to disturbed mechanisms of inference, for example, to difficulties when learning statistical regularities of the environmental structure to guide decisions. Using computational modeling, we demonstrate disturbed inference on alternative choice options in alcohol addiction. Patients neglecting "what might have happened" was accompanied by blunted coding of inference regarding alternative choice options in the medial prefrontal cortex. An impaired integration of alternative choice options implemented by the medial prefrontal cortex might contribute to ongoing drug consumption in the face of evident negative consequences. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/3610935-14$15.00/0.

Concerns, perceived need and competing priorities: a qualitative exploration of decision-making and non-participation in a population-based flexible sigmoidoscopy screening programme to prevent colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Hall, N; Birt, L; Rees, C J; Walter, F M; Elliot, S; Ritchie, M; Weller, D; Rubin, G

2016-11-11

Optimising uptake of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is important to achieve projected health outcomes. Population-based screening by flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) was introduced in England in 2013 (NHS Bowel scope screening). Little is known about reactions to the invitation to participate in FS screening, as offered within the context of the Bowel scope programme. We aimed to investigate responses to the screening invitation to inform understanding of decision-making, particularly in relation to non-participation in screening. Qualitative analysis of semistructured in-depth interviews and written accounts. People from 31 general practices in the North East and East of England invited to attend FS screening as part of NHS Bowel scope screening programme were sent invitations to take part in the study. We purposively sampled interviewees to ensure a range of accounts in terms of beliefs, screening attendance, sex and geographical location. 20 screeners and 25 non-screeners were interviewed. Written responses describing reasons for, and circumstances surrounding, non-participation from a further 28 non-screeners were included in the analysis. Thematic analysis identified a range of reactions to the screening invitation, decision-making processes and barriers to participation. These include a perceived or actual lack of need; inability to attend; anxiety and fear about bowel preparation, procedures or hospital; inability or reluctance to self-administer an enema; beliefs about low susceptibility to bowel cancer or treatment and understanding of harm and benefits. The strength, rather than presence, of concerns about the test and perceived need for reassurance were important in the decision to participate for screeners and non-screeners. Decision-making occurs within the context of previous experiences and day-to-day life. Understanding the reasons for non-participation in FS screening can help inform strategies to improve uptake and may be transferable to other screening programmes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Nicotinic alteration of decision-making.

PubMed

Naudé, Jérémie; Dongelmans, Malou; Faure, Philippe

2015-09-01

Addiction to nicotine is characterized by impulses, urges and lack of self-control towards cigarettes. A key element in the process of addiction is the development of habits oriented towards nicotine consumption that surpass flexible systems as a consequence of a gradual adaptation to chronic drug exposure. However, the long-term effects of nicotine on brain circuits also induce wide changes in decision-making processes, affecting behaviors unrelated to cigarettes. This review aims at providing an update on the implications of nicotine on general decision-making processes, with an emphasis on impulsivity and risk-taking. As impulsivity is a rather ambiguous behavioral trait, we build on economic and normative theories to better characterize these nicotine-induced alterations in decision-making. Nonetheless, experimental data are sparse and often contradictory. We will discuss how the latest findings on the neurobiological basis of choice behavior may help disentangling these issues. We focus on the role of nicotine acetylcholine receptors and their different subunits, and on the spatio-temporal dynamics (i.e. diversity of the neural circuits, short- and long-term effects) of both endogenous acetylcholine and nicotine action. Finally, we try to link these neurobiological results with neuro-computational models of attention, valuation and action, and of the role of acetylcholine in these decision processes. This article is part of the Special Issue entitled 'The Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptor: From Molecular Biology to Cognition'. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a digital clinical pathway for emergency medicine: Lessons from usability testing and implementation failure.

PubMed

Gutenstein, Marc; Pickering, John W; Than, Martin

2018-06-01

Clinical pathways are used to support the management of patients in emergency departments. An existing document-based clinical pathway was used as the foundation on which to design and build a digital clinical pathway for acute chest pain, with the aim of improving clinical calculations, clinician decision-making, documentation, and data collection. Established principles of decision support system design were used to build an application within the existing electronic health record, before testing with a multidisciplinary team of doctors using a think-aloud protocol. Technical authoring was successful, however, usability testing revealed that the user experience and the flexibility of workflow within the application were critical barriers to implementation. Emergency medicine and acute care decision support systems face particular challenges to existing models of linear workflow that should be deliberately addressed in digital pathway design. We make key recommendations regarding digital pathway design in emergency medicine.

Noradrenergic modulation of vicarious trial-and-error behavior during a spatial decision-making task in rats.

PubMed

Amemiya, S; Noji, T; Kubota, N; Nishijima, T; Kita, I

2014-04-18

Deliberation between possible options before making a decision is crucial to responding with an optimal choice. However, the neural mechanisms regulating this deliberative decision-making process are still unclear. Recent studies have proposed that the locus coeruleus-noradrenaline (LC-NA) system plays a role in attention, behavioral flexibility, and exploration, which contribute to the search for an optimal choice under uncertain situations. In the present study, we examined whether the LC-NA system relates to the deliberative process in a T-maze spatial decision-making task in rats. To quantify deliberation in rats, we recorded vicarious trial-and-error behavior (VTE), which is considered to reflect a deliberative process exploring optimal choices. In experiment 1, we manipulated the difficulty of choice by varying the amount of reward pellets between the two maze arms (0 vs. 4, 1 vs. 3, 2 vs. 2). A difficulty-dependent increase in VTE was accompanied by a reduction of choice bias toward the high reward arm and an increase in time required to select one of the two arms in the more difficult manipulation. In addition, the increase of c-Fos-positive NA neurons in the LC depended on the task difficulty and the amount of c-Fos expression in LC-NA neurons positively correlated with the occurrence of VTE. In experiment 2, we inhibited LC-NA activity by injection of clonidine, an agonist of the alpha2 autoreceptor, during a decision-making task (1 vs. 3). The clonidine injection suppressed occurrence of VTE in the early phase of the task and subsequently impaired a valuable choice later in the task. These results suggest that the LC-NA system regulates the deliberative process during decision-making. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of acute administration of nicotinic and muscarinic cholinergic agonists and antagonists on performance in different cost–benefit decision making tasks in rats

PubMed Central

Mendez, Ian A.; Gilbert, Ryan J.; Bizon, Jennifer L.

2012-01-01

Rationale Alterations in cost–benefit decision making accompany numerous neuropsychiatric conditions, including schizophrenia, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and addiction. Central cholinergic systems have been linked to the etiology and/or treatment of many of these conditions, but little is known about the role of cholinergic signaling in cost–benefit decision making. Objectives The goal of these experiments was to determine how cholinergic signaling is involved in cost–benefit decision making, using a behavioral pharmacological approach. Methods Male Long-Evans rats were trained in either “probability discounting” or “delay discounting” tasks, in which rats made discrete-trial choices between a small food reward and a large food reward associated with either varying probabilities of omission or varying delays to delivery, respectively. The effects of acute administration of different doses of nicotinic and muscarinic acetylcholine receptor agonists and antagonists were assessed in each task. Results In the probability discounting task, acute nicotine administration (1.0 mg/kg) significantly increased choice of the large risky reward, and control experiments suggested that this was due to robust nicotine-induced impairments in behavioral flexibility. In the delay discounting task, the muscarinic antagonists scopolamine (0.03, 0.1, and 0.3 mg/kg) and atropine (0.3 mg/kg) both significantly increased choice of the small immediate reward. Neither mecamylamine nor oxotremorine produced reliable effects on either of the decision making tasks. Conclusions These data suggest that cholinergic receptors play multiple roles in decision making contexts which include consideration of reward delay or probability. These roles should be considered when targeting these receptors for therapeutic purposes. PMID:22760484

The anterior insula bidirectionally modulates cost-benefit decision-making on a rodent gambling task.

PubMed

Daniel, M L; Cocker, P J; Lacoste, J; Mar, A C; Houeto, J L; Belin-Rauscent, A; Belin, D

2017-11-01

Deficits in cost-benefit decision-making, as assessed in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), are commonly observed in neuropsychiatric disorders such as addiction. There is considerable variation in the maximization of rewards on such tasks, both in the general population and in rodent models, suggesting individual differences in decision-making may represent a key endophenotype for vulnerability to neuropsychiatric disorders. Increasing evidence suggests that the insular cortex, which is involved in interoception and emotional processes in humans, may be a key neural locus in the control of decision-making processes. However, the extent to which the insula contributes to individual differences in cost-benefit decision-making remains unknown. Using male Sprague Dawley rats, we first assessed individual differences in the performance over the course of a single session on a rodent analogue of the IGT (rGT). Rats were matched for their ability to maximize reward and received bilateral excitotoxic or sham lesions of the anterior insula cortex (AIC). Animals were subsequently challenged on a second rGT session with altered contingencies. Finally, animals were also assessed for instrumental conditioning and reversal learning. AIC lesions produced bidirectional alterations on rGT performance; rats that had performed optimally prior to surgery subsequently showed impairments, and animals that had performed poorly showed improvements in comparison with sham-operated controls. These bidirectional effects were not attributable to alterations in behavioural flexibility or in motivation. These data suggest that the recruitment of the AIC during decision-making may be state-dependent and help guide response selection towards subjectively favourable options. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience published by Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of acute administration of nicotinic and muscarinic cholinergic agonists and antagonists on performance in different cost-benefit decision making tasks in rats.

PubMed

Mendez, Ian A; Gilbert, Ryan J; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

2012-12-01

Alterations in cost-benefit decision making accompany numerous neuropsychiatric conditions, including schizophrenia, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and addiction. Central cholinergic systems have been linked to the etiology and/or treatment of many of these conditions, but little is known about the role of cholinergic signaling in cost-benefit decision making. The goal of these experiments was to determine how cholinergic signaling is involved in cost-benefit decision making, using a behavioral pharmacological approach. Male Long-Evans rats were trained in either "probability discounting" or "delay discounting" tasks, in which rats made discrete-trial choices between a small food reward and a large food reward associated with either varying probabilities of omission or varying delays to delivery, respectively. The effects of acute administration of different doses of nicotinic and muscarinic acetylcholine receptor agonists and antagonists were assessed in each task. In the probability discounting task, acute nicotine administration (1.0 mg/kg) significantly increased choice of the large risky reward, and control experiments suggested that this was due to robust nicotine-induced impairments in behavioral flexibility. In the delay discounting task, the muscarinic antagonists scopolamine (0.03, 0.1, and 0.3 mg/kg) and atropine (0.3 mg/kg) both significantly increased choice of the small immediate reward. Neither mecamylamine nor oxotremorine produced reliable effects on either of the decision making tasks. These data suggest that cholinergic receptors play multiple roles in decision making contexts which include consideration of reward delay or probability. These roles should be considered when targeting these receptors for therapeutic purposes.

Getting with the times: a narrative review of the literature on group decision making in virtual environments and implications for promotions committees.

PubMed

Acai, Anita; Sonnadara, Ranil R; O'Neill, Thomas A

2018-06-01

Concerns around the time and administrative burden of trainee promotion processes have been reported, making virtual meetings an attractive option for promotions committees in undergraduate and postgraduate medicine. However, whether such meetings can uphold the integrity of decision-making processes has yet to be explored. This narrative review aimed to summarize the literature on decision making in virtual teams, discuss ways to improve the effectiveness of virtual teams, and explore their implications for practice. In August 2017, the Web of Science platform was searched with the terms 'decision making' AND 'virtual teams' for articles published within the last 20 years. The search yielded 336 articles, which was narrowed down to a final set of 188 articles. A subset of these, subjectively deemed to be of high-quality and relevant to the work of promotions committees, was included in this review. Virtual team functioning was explored with respect to team composition and development, idea generation and selection, group memory, and communication. While virtual teams were found to potentially offer a number of key benefits over face-to-face meetings including convenience and scheduling flexibility, inclusion of members at remote sites, and enhanced idea generation and external storage, these benefits must be carefully weighed against potential challenges involving planning and coordination, integration of perspectives, and relational conflict among members, all of which can potentially reduce decision-making quality. Avenues to address these issues and maximize the outcomes of virtual promotions meetings are offered in light of the evidence.

Distinct alterations in value-based decision-making and cognitive control in suicide attempters: toward a dual neurocognitive model.

PubMed

Richard-Devantoy, Stéphane; Olié, Emilie; Guillaume, Sébastien; Bechara, Antoine; Courtet, Philippe; Jollant, Fabrice

2013-12-01

The literature suggests that many suicide attempters show impairment in both decision-making and cognitive control. However, it is not clear if these deficits are linked to each other, and if they may be related to more basic alterations in attention. This is a relevant question in the perspective of future interventions targeting cognitive deficits to prevent suicidal acts. Two different populations of patients with histories of suicide attempts were assessed (N=142 and 119). The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was used to measure decision-making in both populations. We used a D2 cancellation task and a verbal working memory task in population 1; the Stroop test, the N-Back task, the Trail Making Test, and the Hayling Sentence Completion test in population 2. Regarding decision-making, we only found a small negative correlation between the Hayling test error score (r=-0.24; p=0.01), and the net score from the second half of the IGT. In contrast, working memory, cognitive flexibility and cognitive inhibition measures were largely inter-correlated. Most patients were medicated. Only patients with mood disorders. These results add to previous findings suggesting that the neurocognitive vulnerability to suicidal behavior may rely on impairments in two distinct anatomical systems, one processing value-based decision-making (associated with ventral prefrontal cortex, among others) and one underlying cognitive control (associated with more dorsal prefrontal regions). This distinction may result in tailored-made cognitive interventions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Individual behavioral and neurochemical markers of unadapted decision-making processes in healthy inbred mice.

PubMed

Pittaras, Elsa; Callebert, Jacques; Chennaoui, Mounir; Rabat, Arnaud; Granon, Sylvie

2016-12-01

One of the hallmarks of decision-making processes is the inter-individual variability between healthy subjects. These behavioral patterns could constitute risk factors for the development of psychiatric disorders. Therefore, finding predictive markers of safe or risky decision-making is an important challenge for psychiatry research. We set up a mouse gambling task (MGT)-adapted from the human Iowa gambling task with uncertain contingencies between response and outcome that furthermore enables the emergence of inter-individual differences. Mice (n = 54) were further individually characterized for locomotive, emotional and cognitive behavior. Individual basal rates of monoamines and brain activation after the MGT were assessed in brain regions related to reward, emotion or cognition. In a large healthy mice population, 44 % showed a balanced strategy with limited risk-taking and flexible choices, 29 % showed a safe but rigid strategy, while 27 % adopted risky behavior. Risky mice took also more risks in other apparatus behavioral devices and were less sensitive to reward. No difference existed between groups regarding anxiety, working memory, locomotion and impulsivity. Safe/rigid mice exhibited a hypoactivation of prefrontal subareas, a high level of serotonin in the orbitofrontal cortex combined with a low level of dopamine in the putamen that predicted the emergence of rigid behavior. By contrast, high levels of dopamine, serotonin and noradrenalin in the hippocampus predicted the emergence of more exploratory and risky behaviors. The coping of C57bl/6J mice in MGT enables the determination of extreme patterns of choices either safe/rigid or risky/flexible, related to specific neurochemical and behavioral markers.

Family planning and family vision in mothers after diagnosis of a child with autism spectrum disorder

PubMed Central

Navot, Noa; Jorgenson, Alicia Grattan; Stoep, Ann Vander; Toth, Karen; Webb, Sara Jane

2016-01-01

The diagnosis of a child with autism has short- and long-term impacts on family functioning. With early diagnosis, the diagnostic process is likely to co-occur with family planning decisions, yet little is known about how parents navigate this process. This study explores family planning decision making process among mothers of young children with autism spectrum disorder in the United States, by understanding the transformation in family vision before and after the diagnosis. A total of 22 mothers of first born children, diagnosed with autism between 2 and 4 years of age, were interviewed about family vision prior to and after their child’s diagnosis. Grounded Theory method was used for data analysis. Findings indicated that coherence of early family vision, maternal cognitive flexibility, and maternal responses to diagnosis were highly influential in future family planning decisions. The decision to have additional children reflected a high level of adaptability built upon a solid internalized family model and a flexible approach to life. Decision to stop childrearing reflected a relatively less coherent family model and more rigid cognitive style followed by ongoing hardship managing life after the diagnosis. This report may be useful for health-care providers in enhancing therapeutic alliance and guiding family planning counseling. PMID:26395237

Family planning and family vision in mothers after diagnosis of a child with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Navot, Noa; Jorgenson, Alicia Grattan; Vander Stoep, Ann; Toth, Karen; Webb, Sara Jane

2016-07-01

The diagnosis of a child with autism has short- and long-term impacts on family functioning. With early diagnosis, the diagnostic process is likely to co-occur with family planning decisions, yet little is known about how parents navigate this process. This study explores family planning decision making process among mothers of young children with autism spectrum disorder in the United States, by understanding the transformation in family vision before and after the diagnosis. A total of 22 mothers of first born children, diagnosed with autism between 2 and 4 years of age, were interviewed about family vision prior to and after their child's diagnosis. Grounded Theory method was used for data analysis. Findings indicated that coherence of early family vision, maternal cognitive flexibility, and maternal responses to diagnosis were highly influential in future family planning decisions. The decision to have additional children reflected a high level of adaptability built upon a solid internalized family model and a flexible approach to life. Decision to stop childrearing reflected a relatively less coherent family model and more rigid cognitive style followed by ongoing hardship managing life after the diagnosis. This report may be useful for health-care providers in enhancing therapeutic alliance and guiding family planning counseling. © The Author(s) 2015.

A comparative assessment of tools for ecosystem services quantification and valuation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Semmens, Darius; Waage, Sissel; Winthrop, Robert

2013-01-01

To enter widespread use, ecosystem service assessments need to be quantifiable, replicable, credible, flexible, and affordable. With recent growth in the field of ecosystem services, a variety of decision-support tools has emerged to support more systematic ecosystem services assessment. Despite the growing complexity of the tool landscape, thorough reviews of tools for identifying, assessing, modeling and in some cases monetarily valuing ecosystem services have generally been lacking. In this study, we describe 17 ecosystem services tools and rate their performance against eight evaluative criteria that gauge their readiness for widespread application in public- and private-sector decision making. We describe each of the tools′ intended uses, services modeled, analytical approaches, data requirements, and outputs, as well time requirements to run seven tools in a first comparative concurrent application of multiple tools to a common location – the San Pedro River watershed in southeast Arizona, USA, and northern Sonora, Mexico. Based on this work, we offer conclusions about these tools′ current ‘readiness’ for widespread application within both public- and private-sector decision making processes. Finally, we describe potential pathways forward to reduce the resource requirements for running ecosystem services models, which are essential to facilitate their more widespread use in environmental decision making.

Towards public health decision support: a systematic review of bidirectional communication approaches

PubMed Central

Dixon, Brian E; Gamache, Roland E; Grannis, Shaun J

2013-01-01

Objective To summarize the literature describing computer-based interventions aimed at improving bidirectional communication between clinical and public health. Materials and Methods A systematic review of English articles using MEDLINE and Google Scholar. Search terms included public health, epidemiology, electronic health records, decision support, expert systems, and decision-making. Only articles that described the communication of information regarding emerging health threats from public health agencies to clinicians or provider organizations were included. Each article was independently reviewed by two authors. Results Ten peer-reviewed articles highlight a nascent but promising area of research and practice related to alerting clinicians about emerging threats. Current literature suggests that additional research and development in bidirectional communication infrastructure should focus on defining a coherent architecture, improving interoperability, establishing clear governance, and creating usable systems that will effectively deliver targeted, specific information to clinicians in support of patient and population decision-making. Conclusions Increasingly available clinical information systems make it possible to deliver timely, relevant knowledge to frontline clinicians in support of population health. Future work should focus on developing a flexible, interoperable infrastructure for bidirectional communications capable of integrating public health knowledge into clinical systems and workflows. PMID:23467470

Sequential planning of flood protection infrastructure under limited historic flood record and climate change uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-04-01

Flood protection is often designed to safeguard people and property following regulations and standards, which specify a target design flood protection level, such as the 100-year flood level prescribed in Germany (DWA, 2011). In practice, the magnitude of such an event is only known within a range of uncertainty, which is caused by limited historic records and uncertain climate change impacts, among other factors (Hall & Solomatine, 2008). As more observations and improved climate projections become available in the future, the design flood estimate changes and the capacity of the flood protection may be deemed insufficient at a future point in time. This problem can be mitigated by the implementation of flexible flood protection systems (that can easily be adjusted in the future) and/or by adding an additional reserve to the flood protection, i.e. by applying a safety factor to the design. But how high should such a safety factor be? And how much should the decision maker be willing to pay to make the system flexible, i.e. what is the Value of Flexibility (Špačková & Straub, 2017)? We propose a decision model that identifies cost-optimal decisions on flood protection capacity in the face of uncertainty (Dittes et al. 2017). It considers sequential adjustments of the protection system during its lifetime, taking into account its flexibility. The proposed framework is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis, using Decision Trees and Markov Decision Processes, and is fully quantitative. It can include a wide range of uncertainty components such as uncertainty associated with limited historic record or uncertain climate or socio-economic change. It is shown that since flexible systems are less costly to adjust when flood estimates are changing, they justify initially lower safety factors. Investigation on the Value of Flexibility (VoF) demonstrates that VoF depends on the type and degree of uncertainty, on the learning effect (i.e. kind and quality of information that we will gather in the future) and on the formulation of the optimization problem (risk-based vs. rule-based approach). The application of the framework is demonstrated on catchments in Germany. References: DWA (Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft Abwasser und Abfall eV.) 2011. Merkblatt DWA-M 507-1: Deiche an Fließgewässern. (A. Bieberstein, Ed.). Hennef: DWA Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser und Abfall e. V. Hall, J., & Solomatine, D. 2008. A framework for uncertainty analysis in flood risk management decisions. International Journal of River Basin Management, 6(2), 85-98. http://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635339 Špačková, O. & Straub, D. 2017. Long-term adaption decisions via fully and partially observable Markov decision processes. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure. In print.

Thinking Together: Modeling Clinical Decision-Support as a Sociotechnical System

PubMed Central

Hussain, Mustafa I.; Reynolds, Tera L.; Mousavi, Fatemeh E.; Chen, Yunan; Zheng, Kai

2017-01-01

Computerized clinical decision-support systems are members of larger sociotechnical systems, composed of human and automated actors, who send, receive, and manipulate artifacts. Sociotechnical consideration is rare in the literature. This makes it difficult to comparatively evaluate the success of CDS implementations, and it may also indicate that sociotechnical context receives inadequate consideration in practice. To facilitate sociotechnical consideration, we developed the Thinking Together model, a flexible diagrammatical means of representing CDS systems as sociotechnical systems. To develop this model, we examined the literature with the lens of Distributed Cognition (DCog) theory. We then present two case studies of vastly different CDSSs, one almost fully automated and the other with minimal automation, to illustrate the flexibility of the Thinking Together model. We show that this model, informed by DCog and the CDS literature, are capable of supporting both research, by enabling comparative evaluation, and practice, by facilitating explicit sociotechnical planning and communication. PMID:29854164

Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics

PubMed Central

Allen, Peter J.; Dorozenko, Kate P.; Roberts, Lynne D.

2016-01-01

Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these “experts” were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid should function as a teaching tool, which engages the user with each choice-point in the decision making process, rather than simply providing an “answer.” Based on these findings, we offer suggestions for tools and strategies that could be deployed in the research methods classroom to facilitate and strengthen students' statistical decision making abilities. PMID:26909064

Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics.

PubMed

Allen, Peter J; Dorozenko, Kate P; Roberts, Lynne D

2016-01-01

Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these "experts" were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid should function as a teaching tool, which engages the user with each choice-point in the decision making process, rather than simply providing an "answer." Based on these findings, we offer suggestions for tools and strategies that could be deployed in the research methods classroom to facilitate and strengthen students' statistical decision making abilities.

Reciprocal inhibition of inhibition: A circuit motif for flexible categorization in stimulus selection

PubMed Central

Knudsen, Eric I.

2011-01-01

As a precursor to the selection of a stimulus for gaze and attention, a midbrain network categorizes stimuli into “strongest” and “others.” The categorization tracks flexibly, in real-time, the absolute strength of the strongest stimulus. In this study, we take a first principles approach to computations that are essential for such categorization. We demonstrate that classical feedforward lateral inhibition cannot produce flexible categorization. However, circuits in which the strength of lateral inhibition varies with the relative strength of competing stimuli categorize successfully. One particular implementation - reciprocal inhibition of feedforward lateral inhibition – is structurally the simplest, and it outperforms others in flexibly categorizing rapidly and reliably. Strong predictions of this anatomically supported circuit model are validated by neural responses measured in the owl midbrain. The results demonstrate the extraordinary power of a remarkably simple, neurally grounded circuit motif in producing flexible categorization, a computation fundamental to attention, perception, and decision-making. PMID:22243757

The manipulative skill: Cognitive devices and their neural correlates underlying Machiavellian's decision making.

PubMed

Bereczkei, Tamas

2015-10-01

Until now, Machiavellianism has mainly been studied in personality and social psychological framework, and little attention has been paid to the underlying cognitive and neural equipment. In light of recent findings, Machiavellian social skills are not limited to emotion regulation and "cold-mindedness" as many authors have recently stated, but linked to specific cognitive abilities. Although Machiavellians appear to have a relatively poor mindreading ability and emotional intelligence, they can efficiently exploit others which is likely to come from their flexible problem solving processes in changing environmental circumstances. The author proposed that Machiavellians have specialized cognitive domains of decision making, such as monitoring others' behavior, task orientation, reward seeking, inhibition of cooperative feelings, and choosing victims. He related the relevant aspects of cognitive functions to their neurological substrates, and argued why they make Machiavellians so successful in interpersonal relationships. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Small Unit Decision Making (SUDM) Assessment Battery

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-21

largest contribution towards differentiating between the performance level of the NCO and Lt groups participating in the project. Two additional...Situational Judgment Test, made the largest contribution towards differentiating between the performance level of NCOs and Lts. Additionally, two other...basic perceptual skills. For the construct of cognitive flexibility we suggest the development of a performance instrument in line with our definition

Evaluation of the Performance Driven Budget Initiative of the New York City Board of Education. First Annual Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siegel, Dorothy; Naphtali, Zvia Segal; Fruchter, Norm; Berne, Robert

In 1996 the Chancellor introduced Performance Driven Budgeting (PDB) to the New York City schools. PDB is a form of decentralized budgetary decision making intended to provide local educators with increased control and flexibility over the use of resources. The plan established a framework of goals and principles, outlined a phased-in…

Developing a planning model to estimate future cash flows.

PubMed

Barenbaum, L; Monahan, T F

1988-03-01

Financial managers are discovering that net income and other traditional measures of cash flow may not provide them with the flexibility needed for comprehensive internal planning and control. By using a discretionary cash flow model, financial managers have a forecasting tool that can help them measure anticipated cash flows, and make better decisions concerning financing alternatives, capital expansion, and performance appraisal.

The profile of executive function in OCD hoarders and hoarding disorder☆

PubMed Central

Morein-Zamir, Sharon; Papmeyer, Martina; Pertusa, Alberto; Chamberlain, Samuel R.; Fineberg, Naomi A.; Sahakian, Barbara J.; Mataix-Cols, David; Robbins, Trevor W.

2014-01-01

Hoarding disorder is a new mental disorder in DSM-5. It is classified alongside OCD and other presumably related disorders in the Obsessive-Compulsive and Related Disorders chapter. We examined cognitive performance in two distinct groups comprising individuals with both OCD and severe hoarding, and individuals with hoarding disorder without comorbid OCD. Participants completed executive function tasks assessing inhibitory control, cognitive flexibility, spatial planning, probabilistic learning and reversal and decision making. Compared to a matched healthy control group, OCD hoarders showed significantly worse performance on measures of response inhibition, set shifting, spatial planning, probabilistic learning and reversal, with intact decision making. Despite having a strikingly different clinical presentation, individuals with only hoarding disorder did not differ significantly from OCD hoarders on any cognitive measure suggesting the two hoarding groups have a similar pattern of cognitive difficulties. Tests of cognitive flexibility were least similar across the groups, but differences were small and potentially reflected subtle variation in underlying brain pathology together with psychometric limitations. These results highlight both commonalities and potential differences between OCD and hoarding disorder, and together with other lines of evidence, support the inclusion of the new disorder within the new Obsessive-Compulsive and Related Disorders chapter in DSM-5. PMID:24467873

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework.

PubMed

Teeguarden, Justin G; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W; Leonard, Jeremy A; Anderson, Kim A; Corley, Richard A; Kile, Molly L; Simonich, Staci M; Stone, David; Tanguay, Robert L; Waters, Katrina M; Harper, Stacey L; Williams, David E

2016-05-03

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the "systems approaches" used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences. Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.

Neuromodulation of reward-based learning and decision making in human aging

PubMed Central

Eppinger, Ben; Hämmerer, Dorothea; Li, Shu-Chen

2013-01-01

In this paper, we review the current literature to highlight relations between age-associated declines in dopaminergic and serotonergic neuromodulation and adult age differences in adaptive goal-directed behavior. Specifically, we focus on evidence suggesting that deficits in neuromodulation contribute to older adults’ behavioral disadvantages in learning and decision making. These deficits are particularly pronounced when reward information is uncertain or the task context requires flexible adaptations to changing stimulus–reward contingencies. Moreover, emerging evidence points to age-related differences in the sensitivity to rewarding and aversive outcomes during learning and decision making if the acquisition of behavior critically depends on outcome processing. These age-related asymmetries in outcome valuation may be explained by age differences in the interplay of dopaminergic and serotonergic neuromodulation. This hypothesis is based on recent neurocomputational and psychopharmacological approaches, which suggest that dopamine and serotonin serve opponent roles in regulating the balance between approach behavior and inhibitory control. Studying adaptive regulation of behavior across the adult life span may shed new light on how the aging brain changes functionally in response to its diminishing resources. PMID:22023564

Adaptive Comanagement of a Marine Protected Area Network in Fiji

PubMed Central

WEEKS, REBECCA; JUPITER, STACY D

2014-01-01

Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. PMID:24112643

Periodical capacity setting methods for make-to-order multi-machine production systems

PubMed Central

Altendorfer, Klaus; Hübl, Alexander; Jodlbauer, Herbert

2014-01-01

The paper presents different periodical capacity setting methods for make-to-order, multi-machine production systems with stochastic customer required lead times and stochastic processing times to improve service level and tardiness. These methods are developed as decision support when capacity flexibility exists, such as, a certain range of possible working hours a week for example. The methods differ in the amount of information used whereby all are based on the cumulated capacity demand at each machine. In a simulation study the methods’ impact on service level and tardiness is compared to a constant provided capacity for a single and a multi-machine setting. It is shown that the tested capacity setting methods can lead to an increase in service level and a decrease in average tardiness in comparison to a constant provided capacity. The methods using information on processing time and customer required lead time distribution perform best. The results found in this paper can help practitioners to make efficient use of their flexible capacity. PMID:27226649

The Multi-Attribute Group Decision-Making Method Based on Interval Grey Trapezoid Fuzzy Linguistic Variables.

PubMed

Yin, Kedong; Wang, Pengyu; Li, Xuemei

2017-12-13

With respect to multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems, where attribute values take the form of interval grey trapezoid fuzzy linguistic variables (IGTFLVs) and the weights (including expert and attribute weight) are unknown, improved grey relational MAGDM methods are proposed. First, the concept of IGTFLV, the operational rules, the distance between IGTFLVs, and the projection formula between the two IGTFLV vectors are defined. Second, the expert weights are determined by using the maximum proximity method based on the projection values between the IGTFLV vectors. The attribute weights are determined by the maximum deviation method and the priorities of alternatives are determined by improved grey relational analysis. Finally, an example is given to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method and the flexibility of IGTFLV.

Development of a requirements management system for technical decision - making processes in the geological disposal project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hiroyoshi Ueda; Katsuhiko Ishiguro; Kazumi Kitayama

2007-07-01

NUMO (Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan) has a responsibility for implementing geological disposal of vitrified HLW (High-Level radioactive Waste) in the Japanese nuclear waste management programme. Its staged siting procedure was initiated in 2002 by an open call for volunteer sites. Careful management strategy and methodology for the technical decision-making at every milestone are required to prepare for the volunteer site application and the site investigation stages after that. The formal Requirement Management System (RMS) is planned to support the computerized implementation of the specific management methodology, termed the NUMO Structured Approach (NSA). This planned RMS will help formore » comprehensive management of the decision-making processes in the geological disposal project, change management towards the anticipated project deviations, efficient project driving such as well programmed R and D etc. and structured record-keeping regarding the past decisions, which leads to soundness of the project in terms of the long-term continuity. The system should have handling/management functions for the database including the decisions/requirements in the project in consideration, their associated information and the structures composed of them in every decision-making process. The information relating to the premises, boundary conditions and time plan of the project should also be prepared in the system. Effective user interface and efficient operation on the in-house network are necessary. As a living system for the long-term formal use, flexibility to updating is indispensable. In advance of the formal system development, two-year activity to develop the preliminary RMS was already started. The purpose of this preliminary system is to template the decision/requirement structure, prototype the decision making management and thus show the feasibility of the innovative RMS. The paper describes the current status of the development, focusing on the initial stage including work analysis/modeling and the system conceptualization. (authors)« less

Active vision in satellite scene analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naillon, Martine

1994-01-01

In earth observation or planetary exploration it is necessary to have more and, more autonomous systems, able to adapt to unpredictable situations. This imposes the use, in artificial systems, of new concepts in cognition, based on the fact that perception should not be separated from recognition and decision making levels. This means that low level signal processing (perception level) should interact with symbolic and high level processing (decision level). This paper is going to describe the new concept of active vision, implemented in Distributed Artificial Intelligence by Dassault Aviation following a 'structuralist' principle. An application to spatial image interpretation is given, oriented toward flexible robotics.

Designing a Hydro-Economic Collaborative Computer Decision Support System: Approaches, Best Practices, Lessons Learned, and Future Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenberg, D. E.

2008-12-01

Designing and implementing a hydro-economic computer model to support or facilitate collaborative decision making among multiple stakeholders or users can be challenging and daunting. Collaborative modeling is distinguished and more difficult than non-collaborative efforts because of a large number of users with different backgrounds, disagreement or conflict among stakeholders regarding problem definitions, modeling roles, and analysis methods, plus evolving ideas of model scope and scale and needs for information and analysis as stakeholders interact, use the model, and learn about the underlying water system. This presentation reviews the lifecycle for collaborative model making and identifies some key design decisions that stakeholders and model developers must make to develop robust and trusted, verifiable and transparent, integrated and flexible, and ultimately useful models. It advances some best practices to implement and program these decisions. Among these best practices are 1) modular development of data- aware input, storage, manipulation, results recording and presentation components plus ways to couple and link to other models and tools, 2) explicitly structure both input data and the meta data that describes data sources, who acquired it, gaps, and modifications or translations made to put the data in a form usable by the model, 3) provide in-line documentation on model inputs, assumptions, calculations, and results plus ways for stakeholders to document their own model use and share results with others, and 4) flexibly program with graphical object-oriented properties and elements that allow users or the model maintainers to easily see and modify the spatial, temporal, or analysis scope as the collaborative process moves forward. We draw on examples of these best practices from the existing literature, the author's prior work, and some new applications just underway. The presentation concludes by identifying some future directions for collaborative modeling including geo-spatial display and analysis, real-time operations, and internet-based tools plus the design and programming needed to implement these capabilities.

Knowledge and decision-making for labour analgesia of Australian primiparous women.

PubMed

Raynes-Greenow, Camille H; Roberts, Christine L; McCaffery, Kirsten; Clarke, Judith

2007-06-01

to assess and investigate knowledge of labour pain management options and decision-making among primiparous women. a semi-structured guide was used in focus groups to gather pregnant women's knowledge concerning labour analgesia. Attitudes to labour and pain relief, knowledge of pain relief, trustworthiness of knowledge sources, and plans and expectations for labour pain relief were investigated. a major tertiary obstetric hospital in metropolitan Sydney, Australia. twenty five primiparous women, who were 25 weeks or more gestation, and planning a vaginal birth. although women considered themselves knowledgeable, they were unable to describe labour analgesic risks or benefits. There was a large discrepancy between perception and actual knowledge. The main source of knowledge was anecdotal information. Late in pregnancy was considered the ideal time to be given information about labour analgesia. Women described their labour pain relief plans as flexible in relation to their labour circumstances; however, most women wanted to take an active role in decision-making. the large discrepancy between perceived knowledge and actual knowledge of the likely consequences of labour analgesia suggests that women rely too heavily on anecdotal information. clinicians should be aware that some women overestimate their knowledge and understanding of analgesic options, which is often based on anecdotal information. Standardised labour analgesia information at an appropriate time in their pregnancy may benefit some women and assist health-care providers and women to practice shared decision-making.

Executive function and decision-making in women with fibromyalgia.

PubMed

Verdejo-García, Antonio; López-Torrecillas, Francisca; Calandre, Elena Pita; Delgado-Rodríguez, Antonia; Bechara, Antoine

2009-02-01

Patients with fibromyalgia (FM) typically report cognitive problems, and they state that these deficits are disturbing in everyday life. Despite these substantial subjective complaints by FM patients, very few studies have addressed objectively the effect of such aversive states on neuropsychological performance. In this study we aimed to examine possible impairment of executive function and decision-making in a sample of 36 women diagnosed with FM and 36 healthy women matched in age, education, and socio-economic status. We contrasted performance of both groups on two measures of executive functioning: the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST), which assesses cognitive flexibility skills, and the Iowa Gambling Tasks (IGT; original and variant versions), which assess emotion-based decision-making. We also examined the relationship between executive function performance and pain experience, and between executive function and personality traits of novelty-seeking, harm avoidance, reward dependence, and persistence (measured by the Temperament and Character Inventory-Revised). Results showed that on the WCST, FM women showed poorer performance than healthy comparison women on the number of categories and non-perseverative errors, but not on perseverative errors. FM patients also showed altered learning curve in the original IGT (where reward is immediate and punishment is delayed), suggesting compromised emotion-based decision-making; but not in the variant IGT (where punishment is immediate but reward is delayed), suggesting hypersensitivity to reward. Personality variables were very mildly associated with cognitive performance in FM women.

Voice, Collaboration and School Culture: Creating a Community for School Improvement. Evaluation of the Pioneer SCBM Schools, Hawaii's School/Community-Based Management Initiative.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Izu, Jo Ann; And Others

Hawaii's School/Community-Based Management Initiative (SCBM), which was enacted into law in 1989, is part of a national trend toward decentralizing decision making and increasing school autonomy that arose during the 1980s. A voluntary program, SCBM offers schools flexibility, autonomy, and a small amount of resources in exchange for…

Flexible Multi agent Algorithm for Distributed Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

How, J. P. Consensus - Based Auction Approaches for Decentralized task Assignment. Proceedings of the AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control...G. ; Kim, Y. Market- based Decentralized Task Assignment for Cooperative UA V Mission Including Rendezvous. Proceedings of the AIAA Guidance...scalable and adaptable to a variety of specific mission tasks . Additionally, the algorithm could easily be adapted for use on land or sea- based systems

Assessment of Scientific Literacy of Estonian Gymnasium Students during the Operation of a Competence-Based Science Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laius, Anne; Post, Aveliis; Rannikmäe, Miia

2016-01-01

Sustainable societies need a workforce with a very creative and flexible nature to be able cope with rapidly changing situations making creative and reasonable decisions. The only suggested way to obtain this is through education that is oriented to competences. The goal of this research is to determine the influence of a new competence-based…

12-hour shifts: an ethical dilemma for the nurse executive.

PubMed

Lorenz, Susan G

2008-06-01

Flexible work hours, including 12-hour shifts, have become a common scheduling option for nurses. The author explores whether 12-hour shifts are an ethical scheduling option for nurses because recent research suggests that 12-hour shifts are a potential hazard to patients. A multistep model for ethical decision making, reflecting the concept of procedural justice, is used to examine this issue.

Knowing When to Be "Rational": Flexible Economic Decision Making and Executive Function in Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Wendy S. C.; Carlson, Stephanie M.

2015-01-01

Failure to delay gratification may not indicate poor control or irrationality, but might be an adaptive response. Two studies investigated 3.5- and 4.5-year-old children's ability to adapt their delay and saving behavior when their preference (e.g., to delay or not delay) became nonadaptive. In Study 1 (N = 140), children's delay preference was…

Effects of category-specific costs on neural systems for perceptual decision-making.

PubMed

Fleming, Stephen M; Whiteley, Louise; Hulme, Oliver J; Sahani, Maneesh; Dolan, Raymond J

2010-06-01

Perceptual judgments are often biased by prospective losses, leading to changes in decision criteria. Little is known about how and where sensory evidence and cost information interact in the brain to influence perceptual categorization. Here we show that prospective losses systematically bias the perception of noisy face-house images. Asymmetries in category-specific cost were associated with enhanced blood-oxygen-level-dependent signal in a frontoparietal network. We observed selective activation of parahippocampal gyrus for changes in category-specific cost in keeping with the hypothesis that loss functions enact a particular task set that is communicated to visual regions. Across subjects, greater shifts in decision criteria were associated with greater activation of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Our results support a hypothesis that costs bias an intermediate representation between perception and action, expressed via general effects on frontal cortex, and selective effects on extrastriate cortex. These findings indicate that asymmetric costs may affect a neural implementation of perceptual decision making in a similar manner to changes in category expectation, constituting a step toward accounting for how prospective losses are flexibly integrated with sensory evidence in the brain.

Formal and informal decision making on water management at the village level: A case study from the Office du Niger irrigation scheme (Mali)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandersypen, Klaartje; Keita, Abdoulaye C. T.; Coulibaly, Y.; Raes, D.; Jamin, J.-Y.

2007-06-01

Water Users Associations (WUAs) are all too often considered a panacea for improving water management in irrigation schemes. Where grassroots movements are absent, they are usually imposed on farmers by national governments, NGOs, and international donors, without fully considering existing forms of organization. This also happened in the Office du Niger irrigation scheme in Mali, where after a partial irrigation management transfer, WUAs were created to fill the resulting power vacuum. This paper demonstrates that, despite active efforts to organize farmers in WUAs, informal patterns of decision making remain dominant. Given the shortcomings of these informal patterns, WUAs could provide a much-needed platform for institutionalizing collective action, on the condition that farmers accept them. Therefore WUAs should adopt some crucial characteristics of informal patterns of decision making while avoiding their weaknesses. First, making use of the existing authority of village leadership and the central management can improve the credibility of WUAs. Second, allowing flexibility in procedures and rules can make them more appropriate for dealing with collective action problems that are typically temporary and specific. Last, formalizing the current pattern of conflict management and sanctioning might enhance its sphere of action and tackle the current absence of firm engagement with respect to some informal management decisions. In addition, WUAs should represent and be accountable to all farmers, including those residing outside the village community.

Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

PubMed

Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

2003-01-01

A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision-Making Framework for Identifying, Assessing and Managing Health Risks (Health Canada, 2000). 4. Canadian Environmental Protection Act: Human Health Risk Assessment of Priority Substances(Health Canada, 1994). 5. CSA-Q8550 Risk Management: Guidelines for Decision-Makers (Canada Standards Association, 1997). 6. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process (US National Research Council, 1983). 7. Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society (US National Research Council, 1996). 8. Environmental Health Risk Assessment (enHealth Council of Australia, 2002). 9. A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (CCME, 1996). 10. Ecological Risk Assessments of Priority Substances Under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (Environment Canada, 1996).11. Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment (US EPA, 1998b). 12. Proposed Model for Occupational Health Risk Assessment and Management (Rampal & Sadhra, 1999). Based on the extensive review of these frameworks, seven key elements that should be included in a comprehensive framework for human health, ecological, and occupational risk assessment and management were identified: 1. Problem formulation stage. 2. Stakeholder involvement. 3. Communication. 4. Quantitative risk assessment components. 5. Iteration and evaluation. 6. Informed decision making. 7. Flexibility. On the basis of this overarching approach to risk management, the following "checklist" to ensure a good risk management decision is proposed: - Make sure you're solving the right problem. - Consider the problem and the risk within the full context of the situation, using a broad perspective. - Acknowledge, incorporate, and balance the multiple dimensions of risk. - Ensure the highest degree of reliability for all components of the risk management process. - Involve interested and effected parties from the outset of the process. - Commit to honest and open communication between all parties. - Employ continuous evaluation throughout the process (formative, process, and outcome evaluation), and be prepared to change the decision if new information becomes available. Comprehensive and sound principles are critical to providing structure and integrity to risk management frameworks. Guiding principles are intended to provide an ethical grounding for considering the many factors involved in risk management decision making. Ten principles are proposed to guide risk management decision making. The first four principles were adapted and modified from Hattis (1996) along with the addition of two more principles by Hrudey (2000). These have been supplemented by another four principles to make the 10 presented. The principles are based in fundamental ethical principles and values. These principles are intended to be aspirational rather than prescriptive--their application requires flexibility and practical judgement. Risk management is inherently a process in search of balance among competing interests and concerns. Each risk management decision will be "balancing act" of competing priorities, and trade-offs may sometimes have to be made between seemingly conflicting principles. The 10 decision-making principles, with the corresponding ethical principle in italics are: 1. Do more good than harm (beneficence, nonmalificence).- The ultimate goal of good risk management is to prevent or minimize risk, or to "do good" as much as possible. 2. Fair process of decision making (fairness, natural justice). - Risk management must be just, equitable, impartial, unbiased, dispassionate, and objective as far as possible given the circumstances of each situation. 3. Ensure an equitable distribution of risk (equity). - An equitable process of risk management would ensure fair outcomes and equal treatment of all concerned through an equal distribution of benefits and burdens (includes the concept of distributive justice, i.e., equal opportunities for all individuals). 4. Seek optimal use of limited risk management resources (utility). - Optimal risk management demands using limited resources where they will achieve the most risk reduction of overall benefit. 5. Promise no more risk management that can be delivered (honesty).- Unrealistic expectations of risk management can be avoided with honest and candid public accounting of what we know and don't know, and what we can and can't do using risk assessment and risk management. 6. Impose no more risk that you would tolerate yourself (the Golden Rule). - The Golden Rule is important in risk management because it forces decision makers to abandon complete detachment from their decisions so they may understand the perspectives of those affected. 7. Be cautious in the face of uncertainty ("better safe than sorry"). - Risk management must adopt a cautious approach when faced with a potentially serous risk, even if the evidence is uncertain. 8. Foster informed risk decision making for all stakeholders (autonomy). - Fostering autonomous decision making involves both providing people with the opportunity to participate, and full and honest disclosure of all the information required for informed decisions. 9. Risk management processes must be flexible and evolutionary to be open to new knowledge and understanding (evolution, evaluation, iterative process). - The incorporation of new evidence requires that risk management be a flexible, evolutionary, and iterative process, and that evaluation is employed at the beginning and througthout the process. 10. the complete elimination fo risk is not possible (life is not risk free).- Risk is pervasive in our society, and cannot be totally eliminated despite an oft-expressed public desire for "zero risk". However, the level of risk that may ve tolerable by any individual is dependent on values of beliefs, as well as scientific information. Each agency must continue to employ a process that meets the needs of their specific application of risk management. A single approach cannot satisfy the diverse areas to which risk decisions are being applied. However, with increasing experience in the application of the approaches, we are evolving to a common understanding of the essential elements and principles required for successful risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. Risk management will continue to be a balancing act of competing priorities and needs. Flexibility and good judgement are ultimately the key to successfully making appropriate risk decisions.

Optimizing in a complex world: A statistician's role in decision making

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine M.

2016-08-09

As applied statisticians increasingly participate as active members of problem-solving and decision-making teams, our role continues to evolve. Historically, we may have been seen as those who can help with data collection strategies or answer a specific question from a set of data. Nowadays, we are or strive to be more deeply involved throughout the entire problem-solving process. An emerging role is to provide a set of leading choices from which subject matter experts and managers can choose to make informed decisions. A key to success is to provide vehicles for understanding the trade-offs between candidates and interpreting the meritsmore » of each choice in the context of the decision-makers priorities. To achieve this objective, it is helpful to be able (a) to help subject matter experts identify quantitative criteria that match their priorities, (b) eliminate non-competitive choices through the use of a Pareto front, and (c) provide summary tools from which the trade-offs between alternatives can be quantitatively evaluated and discussed. A structured but flexible process for contributing to team decisions is described for situations when all choices can easily be enumerated as well as when a search algorithm to explore a vast number of potential candidates is required. In conclusion, a collection of diverse examples ranging from model selection, through multiple response optimization, and designing an experiment illustrate the approach.« less

Optimizing in a complex world: A statistician's role in decision making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson-Cook, Christine M.

As applied statisticians increasingly participate as active members of problem-solving and decision-making teams, our role continues to evolve. Historically, we may have been seen as those who can help with data collection strategies or answer a specific question from a set of data. Nowadays, we are or strive to be more deeply involved throughout the entire problem-solving process. An emerging role is to provide a set of leading choices from which subject matter experts and managers can choose to make informed decisions. A key to success is to provide vehicles for understanding the trade-offs between candidates and interpreting the meritsmore » of each choice in the context of the decision-makers priorities. To achieve this objective, it is helpful to be able (a) to help subject matter experts identify quantitative criteria that match their priorities, (b) eliminate non-competitive choices through the use of a Pareto front, and (c) provide summary tools from which the trade-offs between alternatives can be quantitatively evaluated and discussed. A structured but flexible process for contributing to team decisions is described for situations when all choices can easily be enumerated as well as when a search algorithm to explore a vast number of potential candidates is required. In conclusion, a collection of diverse examples ranging from model selection, through multiple response optimization, and designing an experiment illustrate the approach.« less

Completable scheduling: An integrated approach to planning and scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gervasio, Melinda T.; Dejong, Gerald F.

1992-01-01

The planning problem has traditionally been treated separately from the scheduling problem. However, as more realistic domains are tackled, it becomes evident that the problem of deciding on an ordered set of tasks to achieve a set of goals cannot be treated independently of the problem of actually allocating resources to the tasks. Doing so would result in losing the robustness and flexibility needed to deal with imperfectly modeled domains. Completable scheduling is an approach which integrates the two problems by allowing an a priori planning module to defer particular planning decisions, and consequently the associated scheduling decisions, until execution time. This allows a completable scheduling system to maximize plan flexibility by allowing runtime information to be taken into consideration when making planning and scheduling decision. Furthermore, through the criteria of achievability placed on deferred decision, a completable scheduling system is able to retain much of the goal-directedness and guarantees of achievement afforded by a priori planning. The completable scheduling approach is further enhanced by the use of contingent explanation-based learning, which enables a completable scheduling system to learn general completable plans from example and improve its performance through experience. Initial experimental results show that completable scheduling outperforms classical scheduling as well as pure reactive scheduling in a simple scheduling domain.

Delivering proportionate governance in the era of eHealth

PubMed Central

Sethi, Nayha; Laurie, Graeme T.

2013-01-01

This article advances a principled proportionate governance model (PPGM) that overcomes key impediments to using health records for research. Despite increasing initiatives for maximising benefits of data linkage, significant challenges remain, including a culture of caution around data sharing and linkage, failure to make use of flexibilities within the law and failure to incorporate intelligent iterative design. The article identifies key issues for consideration and posits a flexible and accessible governance model that provides a robust and efficient means of paying due regard to both privacy and the public interests in research. We argue that proportionate governance based on clear guiding principles accurately gauges risks associated with data uses and assigns safeguards accordingly. This requires a clear articulation of roles and responsibilities at all levels of decision-making and effective training for researchers and data custodians. Accordingly, the PPGM encourages and supports defensible judgements about data linkage in the public interest. PMID:24634569

Linguistic hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method based on evidential reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Huan; Wang, Jian-qiang; Zhang, Hong-yu; Chen, Xiao-hong

2016-01-01

Linguistic hesitant fuzzy sets (LHFSs), which can be used to represent decision-makers' qualitative preferences as well as reflect their hesitancy and inconsistency, have attracted a great deal of attention due to their flexibility and efficiency. This paper focuses on a multi-criteria decision-making approach that combines LHFSs with the evidential reasoning (ER) method. After reviewing existing studies of LHFSs, a new order relationship and Hamming distance between LHFSs are introduced and some linguistic scale functions are applied. Then, the ER algorithm is used to aggregate the distributed assessment of each alternative. Subsequently, the set of aggregated alternatives on criteria are further aggregated to get the overall value of each alternative. Furthermore, a nonlinear programming model is developed and genetic algorithms are used to obtain the optimal weights of the criteria. Finally, two illustrative examples are provided to show the feasibility and usability of the method, and comparison analysis with the existing method is made.

Shared decision making in the recovery of people with schizophrenia: the role of metacognitive capacities in insight and pragmatic language use.

PubMed

Chan, Kevin K S; Mak, Winnie W S

2012-08-01

In the development of consumer-centered care for mental health consumers with schizophrenia, one key ingredient is consumer participation in health care decisions together with their healthcare providers, termed "shared decision making" (SDM). SDM requires consumers to form a number of complex ideas about themselves and their providers then use that knowledge to make sense of the illness and reach medical and psychosocial decisions. However, metacognitive deficits widely observed in schizophrenia might lead to poor insight and pragmatic language deficits in some consumers, disrupting the whole process by which a personal and consensually valid narrative account of psychiatric challenges is synthesized and flexibly evolved. Given the current understanding that it is possible to improve metacognition, in this article we summarize how Metacognitive Training (MCT) and individual psychotherapy could potentially be tailored, or modified, to help consumers to develop metacognitive capacities with an end goal of facilitating the SDM process. Consistent with the principles of consumer-defined recovery, we also suggest a strategy for engaging consumers in SDM dialogue based on "where the consumers are at". Providers are advised to be cognizant of their medically driven perspective and attempt to work with the consumers in the perspective of the consumers' own recovery goals. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Approach of Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Based AHP and Fuzzy COPRAS for Machine Tool Evaluation.

PubMed

Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Md Dawal, Siti Zawiah; Nukman, Yusoff; Aoyama, Hideki; Case, Keith

2015-01-01

Globalization of business and competitiveness in manufacturing has forced companies to improve their manufacturing facilities to respond to market requirements. Machine tool evaluation involves an essential decision using imprecise and vague information, and plays a major role to improve the productivity and flexibility in manufacturing. The aim of this study is to present an integrated approach for decision-making in machine tool selection. This paper is focused on the integration of a consistent fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and a fuzzy COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS) for multi-attribute decision-making in selecting the most suitable machine tool. In this method, the fuzzy linguistic reference relation is integrated into AHP to handle the imprecise and vague information, and to simplify the data collection for the pair-wise comparison matrix of the AHP which determines the weights of attributes. The output of the fuzzy AHP is imported into the fuzzy COPRAS method for ranking alternatives through the closeness coefficient. Presentation of the proposed model application is provided by a numerical example based on the collection of data by questionnaire and from the literature. The results highlight the integration of the improved fuzzy AHP and the fuzzy COPRAS as a precise tool and provide effective multi-attribute decision-making for evaluating the machine tool in the uncertain environment.

Habits as action sequences: hierarchical action control and changes in outcome value

PubMed Central

Dezfouli, Amir; Lingawi, Nura W.; Balleine, Bernard W.

2014-01-01

Goal-directed action involves making high-level choices that are implemented using previously acquired action sequences to attain desired goals. Such a hierarchical schema is necessary for goal-directed actions to be scalable to real-life situations, but results in decision-making that is less flexible than when action sequences are unfolded and the decision-maker deliberates step-by-step over the outcome of each individual action. In particular, from this perspective, the offline revaluation of any outcomes that fall within action sequence boundaries will be invisible to the high-level planner resulting in decisions that are insensitive to such changes. Here, within the context of a two-stage decision-making task, we demonstrate that this property can explain the emergence of habits. Next, we show how this hierarchical account explains the insensitivity of over-trained actions to changes in outcome value. Finally, we provide new data that show that, under extended extinction conditions, habitual behaviour can revert to goal-directed control, presumably as a consequence of decomposing action sequences into single actions. This hierarchical view suggests that the development of action sequences and the insensitivity of actions to changes in outcome value are essentially two sides of the same coin, explaining why these two aspects of automatic behaviour involve a shared neural structure. PMID:25267824

Some Results of Weak Anticipative Concept Applied in Simulation Based Decision Support in Enterprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kljajić, Miroljub; Kofjač, Davorin; Kljajić Borštnar, Mirjana; Škraba, Andrej

2010-11-01

The simulation models are used as for decision support and learning in enterprises and in schools. Tree cases of successful applications demonstrate usefulness of weak anticipative information. Job shop scheduling production with makespan criterion presents a real case customized flexible furniture production optimization. The genetic algorithm for job shop scheduling optimization is presented. Simulation based inventory control for products with stochastic lead time and demand describes inventory optimization for products with stochastic lead time and demand. Dynamic programming and fuzzy control algorithms reduce the total cost without producing stock-outs in most cases. Values of decision making information based on simulation were discussed too. All two cases will be discussed from optimization, modeling and learning point of view.

Affective and cognitive mechanisms of risky decision making.

PubMed

Shimp, Kristy G; Mitchell, Marci R; Beas, B Sofia; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

2015-01-01

The ability to make advantageous decisions under circumstances in which there is a risk of adverse consequences is an important component of adaptive behavior; however, extremes in risk taking (either high or low) can be maladaptive and are characteristic of a number of neuropsychiatric disorders. To better understand the contributions of various affective and cognitive factors to risky decision making, cohorts of male Long-Evans rats were trained in a "Risky Decision making Task" (RDT), in which they made discrete trial choices between a small, "safe" food reward and a large, "risky" food reward accompanied by varying probabilities of footshock. Experiment 1 evaluated the relative contributions of the affective stimuli (i.e., punishment vs. reward) to RDT performance by parametrically varying the magnitudes of the footshock and large reward. Varying the shock magnitude had a significant impact on choice of the large, "risky" reward, such that greater magnitudes were associated with reduced choice of the large reward. In contrast, varying the large, "risky" reward magnitude had minimal influence on reward choice. Experiment 2 compared individual variability in RDT performance with performance in an attentional set shifting task (assessing cognitive flexibility), a delayed response task (assessing working memory), and a delay discounting task (assessing impulsive choice). Rats characterized as risk averse in the RDT made more perseverative errors on the set shifting task than did their risk taking counterparts, whereas RDT performance was not related to working memory abilities or impulsive choice. In addition, rats that showed greater delay discounting (greater impulsive choice) showed corresponding poorer performance in the working memory task. Together, these results suggest that reward-related decision making under risk of punishment is more strongly influenced by the punishment than by the reward, and that risky and impulsive decision making are associated with distinct components of executive function. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Affective and cognitive mechanisms of risky decision making

PubMed Central

Shimp, Kristy G.; Mitchell, Marci R.; Beas, B. Sofia; Bizon, Jennifer L.; Setlow, Barry

2014-01-01

The ability to make advantageous decisions under circumstances in which there is a risk of adverse consequences is an important component of adaptive behavior; however, extremes in risk taking (either high or low) can be maladaptive and are characteristic of a number of neuropsychiatric disorders. To better understand the contributions of various affective and cognitive factors to risky decision making, cohorts of male Long-Evans rats were trained in a “Risky Decision making Task” (RDT), in which they made discrete trial choices between a small, “safe” food reward and a large, “risky” food reward accompanied by varying probabilities of footshock. Experiment 1 evaluated the relative contributions of the affective stimuli (i.e., punishment vs. reward) to RDT performance by parametrically varying the magnitudes of the footshock and large reward. Varying the shock magnitude had a significant impact on choice of the large, “risky” reward, such that greater magnitudes were associated with reduced choice of the large reward. In contrast, varying the large, “risky” reward magnitude had minimal influence on reward choice. Experiment 2 compared individual variability in RDT performance with performance in an attentional set shifting task (assessing cognitive flexibility), a delayed response task (assessing working memory), and a delay discounting task (assessing impulsive choice). Rats characterized as risk averse in the RDT made more perseverative errors on the set shifting task than did their risk taking counterparts, whereas RDT performance was not related to working memory abilities or impulsive choice. In addition, rats that showed greater delay discounting (greater impulsive choice) showed corresponding poorer performance in the working memory task. Together, these results suggest that reward-related decision making under risk of punishment is more strongly influenced by the punishment than by the reward, and that risky and impulsive decision making are associated with distinct components of executive function. PMID:24642448

The Protected Areas Visitor Impact Management (PAVIM) framework: A simplified process for making management decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farrell, T.A.; Marion, J.L.

2002-01-01

Ecotourism and protected area visitation in Central and South America have resulted in ecological impacts, which some protected areas managers have addressed by employing visitor impact management frameworks. In this paper, we propose the Protected Area Visitor Impact Management (PAVIM) framework as an alternative to carrying capacity and other frameworks such as Limits of Acceptable Change. We use a set of evaluation criteria to compare the relative positive and negative attributes of carrying capacity, other decision-making frameworks and the new framework, within the context of their actual and potential use in Central and South America. Positive attributes of PAVIM include simplicity, flexibility, cost effectiveness, timeliness, and incorporating input from stakeholders and local residents. Negative attributes include diminished objectivity and cultural sensitivity issues. Further research and application of PAVIM are recommended.

On Complex Networks Representation and Computation of Hydrologycal Quantities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serafin, F.; Bancheri, M.; David, O.; Rigon, R.

2017-12-01

Water is our blue gold. Despite results of discovery-based science keep warning public opinion about the looming worldwide water crisis, water is still treated as a not worth taking resource. Could a different multi-scale perspective affect environmental decision-making more deeply? Can also a further pairing to a new graphical representation of processes interaction sway decision-making more effectively and public opinion consequently?This abstract introduces a complex networks driven way to represent catchments eco-hydrology and related flexible informatics to manage it. The representation is built upon mathematical category. A category is an algebraic structure that comprises "objects" linked by "arrows". It is an evolution of Petri Nets said Time Continuous Petri Nets (TCPN). It aims to display (water) budgets processes and catchment interactions using explicative and self-contained symbolism. The result improves readability of physical processes compared to current descriptions. The IT perspective hinges on the Object Modeling System (OMS) v3. The latter is a non-invasive flexible environmental modeling framework designed to support component-based model development. The implementation of a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) data structure, named Net3, has recently enhanced its flexibility. Net3 represents interacting systems as complex networks: vertices match up with any sort of time evolving quantity; edges correspond to their data (fluxes) interchange. It currently hosts JGrass-NewAge components, and those implementing travel time analysis of fluxes. Further bio-physical or management oriented components can be easily added.This talk introduces both graphical representation and related informatics exercising actual applications and examples.

Diplomatic-Military Cooperation in Operations Other Than War

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-06-06

the West to new levels . Though the United States condemned the invasion and brokered a withdrawal, in much of the Arab world America was regarded as...Departments was incomplete and operational level coordination between McClintock and Holloway was nonexistent. Several short brain- storming sessions, a ...presented two conclusions. First, there was a need for more flexible, high- level decision making in the initial stages. While he did not directly pose

Flexible Method for Developing Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Future Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-01

levels of ability, military experience, and motivation, (b) number and type of significant events, and (c) other sources of natural variability...research has developed a number of specific instruments designed to aid in this process. Second, the iterative, feed-forward nature of the method allows...FLEX method), but still lack the structured KE approach and iterative, feed-forward nature of the FLEX method. To facilitate decision making

Preparing the National Capital Region to Conduct a Multijurisdictional and Interdisciplinary Law Enforcement Investigation

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

of NIMS, there is oftentimes a disconnection between the training and the use of NIMS. The consequences of this disconnection is that when LE needs...motivation, flexibility, communication, consensus decision making, information-sharing, 13 building social capital , having team pride, taking...of regional investigations using the different models. 3. To the National Capital Region By creating a framework for regional investigations and

GIS-assisted spatial analysis for urban regulatory detailed planning: designer's dimension in the Chinese code system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yang; Zeng, Zheng

2009-10-01

By discussing the causes behind the high amendments ratio in the implementation of urban regulatory detailed plans in China despite its law-ensured status, the study aims to reconcile conflict between the legal authority of regulatory detailed planning and the insufficient scientific support in its decision-making and compilation by introducing into the process spatial analysis based on GIS technology and 3D modeling thus present a more scientific and flexible approach to regulatory detailed planning in China. The study first points out that the current compilation process of urban regulatory detailed plan in China employs mainly an empirical approach which renders it constantly subjected to amendments; the study then discusses the need and current utilization of GIS in the Chinese system and proposes the framework of a GIS-assisted 3D spatial analysis process from the designer's perspective which can be regarded as an alternating processes between the descriptive codes and physical design in the compilation of regulatory detailed planning. With a case study of the processes and results from the application of the framework, the paper concludes that the proposed framework can be an effective instrument which provides more rationality, flexibility and thus more efficiency to the compilation and decision-making process of urban regulatory detailed plan in China.

A decision underlies phototaxis in an insect

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Like a moth into the flame—phototaxis is an iconic example for innate preferences. Such preferences probably reflect evolutionary adaptations to predictable situations and have traditionally been conceptualized as hard-wired stimulus–response links. Perhaps for that reason, the century-old discovery of flexibility in Drosophila phototaxis has received little attention. Here, we report that across several different behavioural tests, light/dark preference tested in walking is dependent on various aspects of flight. If we temporarily compromise flying ability, walking photopreference reverses concomitantly. Neuronal activity in circuits expressing dopamine and octopamine, respectively, plays a differential role in photopreference, suggesting a potential involvement of these biogenic amines in this case of behavioural flexibility. We conclude that flies monitor their ability to fly, and that flying ability exerts a fundamental effect on action selection in Drosophila. This work suggests that even behaviours which appear simple and hard-wired comprise a value-driven decision-making stage, negotiating the external situation with the animal's internal state, before an action is selected. PMID:28003472

Modular evaluation method for subsurface activities (MEMSA). A novel approach for integrating social acceptance in a permit decision-making process for subsurface activities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Os, Herman W.A. van, E-mail: h.w.a.van.os@rug.nl; Herber, Rien, E-mail: rien.herber@rug.nl; Scholtens, Bert, E-mail: l.j.r.scholtens@rug.nl

We investigate how the decision support system ‘Modular Evaluation Method Subsurface Activities’ (MEMSA) can help facilitate an informed decision-making process for permit applications of subsurface activities. To this end, we analyze the extent the MEMSA approach allows for a dialogue between stakeholders in a transparent manner. We use the exploration permit for the underground gas storage facility at the Pieterburen salt dome (Netherlands) as a case study. The results suggest that the MEMSA approach is flexible enough to adjust to changing conditions. Furthermore, MEMSA provides a novel way for identifying structural problems and possible solutions in permit decision-making processes formore » subsurface activities, on the basis of the sensitivity analysis of intermediate rankings. We suggest that the planned size of an activity should already be specified in the exploration phase, because this would allow for a more efficient use of the subsurface as a whole. We conclude that the host community should be involved to a greater extent and in an early phase of the permit decision-making process, for example, already during the initial analysis of the project area of a subsurface activity. We suggest that strategic national policy goals are to be re-evaluated on a regular basis, in the form of a strategic vision for the subsurface, to account for timing discrepancies between the realization of activities and policy deadlines, because this discrepancy can have a large impact on the necessity and therefore acceptance of a subsurface activity.« less

Women as a resource for the flexibility required for high technology innovation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marlaire, Ruth Dasso

1994-01-01

What do women scientists need to know for career advancement into senior level positions? Our declining economic conditions have been the cause for major political and technological changes. The U.S. Congress is turning toward technology to increase our competitive edge in the world. Allowing women scientists, and women engineers in particular, more voice in the decision making process may be an innovative alternative for the diversity and flexibility needed for the unknown technological problems of the future. But first women scientists need to know how the system measures scientific achievement and how to identify the processes needed to increase our technological capability in order for them to formidably compete and win higher ranking positions.

Executive functions in adolescents with binge-eating disorder and obesity.

PubMed

Kittel, Rebekka; Schmidt, Ricarda; Hilbert, Anja

2017-08-01

Binge-eating disorder (BED) in adults is associated with alterations in executive functions (EF) and obesity. Much less is known about these relationships in adolescents, including whether poor EF are associated with eating disorder psychopathology and/or elevated body mass index. This study examined EF in response to neutral stimuli in youth with BED. Adolescents with BED and obesity (n = 22), individually matched adolescents with obesity (n = 22), and normal weight (n = 22) completed neuropsychological tests targeting inhibition (Color-Word Interference Test), sustained attention (D2 Concentration Endurance Test), cognitive flexibility (Comprehensive Trail Making Test), and decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task). Adolescents with BED and obesity displayed significantly poorer inhibitory control compared to normal-weight adolescents. This effect persisted after controlling for the level of secondary education. However, initial differences between adolescents with obesity and normal-weight controls regarding inhibitory control and sustained attention vanished after controlling for education. The three groups did not differ regarding cognitive flexibility and decision-making. Moreover, adolescents with BED and obesity did not perform worse than adolescents with obesity on any of the neuropsychological tests. Overall, our results indicate that adolescent BED is associated with only a few alterations in general EF, specifically inhibitory control, and underline BED and educational level as confounding factors in neuropsychological research on obesity. To further delineate EF profiles of adolescents with BED, future research should focus on EF in response to disorder-related stimuli and experimental settings with high ecological validity. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework

PubMed Central

Teeguarden, Justin. G.; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.; Leonard, Jeremy A.; Anderson, Kim A.; Corley, Richard A.; Harding, Anna K; Kile, Molly L.; Simonich, Staci M; Stone, David; Tanguay, Robert L.; Waters, Katrina M.; Harper, Stacey L.; Williams, David E.

2016-01-01

Synopsis Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computational tools, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences. Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more efficient integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two pathways form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making. PMID:26759916

Completing the link between exposure science and toxicology for improved environmental health decision making: The aggregate exposure pathway framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu -Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.

Here, driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences.more » Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.« less

Completing the link between exposure science and toxicology for improved environmental health decision making: The aggregate exposure pathway framework

DOE PAGES

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu -Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.; ...

2016-01-13

Here, driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences.more » Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.« less

Crosstalk Regulates the Capacity for Robust Collective Decision Making in Heterogeneous Microbial Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusufaly, Tahir; Boedicker, James

Microbial communities frequently communicate via quorum sensing (QS), where cells produce, secrete, and respond to a threshold level of an autoinducer (AI) molecule, thereby modulating density-dependent gene expression. However, the biology of QS remains incompletely understood in heterogeneous communities, where crosstalk between distinct QS systems leads to novel effects. Such knowledge is necessary both for understanding signaling in real microbial communities, and for the rational design of synthetic communities with designer properties. As a step towards this goal, we investigate the effects of crosstalk between Gram-negative bacteria communicating via LuxI/LuxR-type QS systems, with acyl-homoserine lactone (AHL) AI molecules. After mapping QS in a heterogeneous community onto an artificial neural network model, we systematically analyze how heterogeneity regulates the community's capability for stable yet flexible decision making. We find that there are preferred distributions of interactions which provide optimal tradeoffs between capacity, or the number of different decisions a population can make, and robustness, or the tolerance of the community to disturbances. We compare our results to inferences made from experimental data, and critically discuss implications for the biological significance of crosstalk.

The Influence of Future Command, Control, Communications, and Computers (C4) on Doctrine and the Operational Commander's Decision-Making Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayer, Michael G.

1996-01-01

Future C4 systems will alter the traditional balance between force and information, having a profound influence on doctrine and the operational commander's decision making process. The Joint Staff's future vision of C4 is conceptualized in 'C4I for the Warrior' which envisions a joint C4I architecture providing timely sensor to shoot information direct to the warfighter. C4 system must manage and filter an overwhelming amount of information; deal with interoperability issues; overcome technological limitations; meet emerging security requirements; and protect against 'Information Warfare.' Severe budget constraints necessitate unified control of C4 systems under singular leadership for the common good of all the services. In addition, acquisition policy and procedures must be revamped to allow new technologies to be fielded quickly; and the commercial marketplace will become the preferred starting point for modernization. Flatter command structures are recommended in this environment where information is available instantaneously. New responsibilities for decision making at lower levels are created. Commanders will have to strike a balance between exerting greater control and allowing subordinates enough flexibility to maintain initiative. Clearly, the commander's intent remains the most important tool in striking this balance.

Automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to flexible-receptor docking data.

PubMed

Barros, Rodrigo C; Winck, Ana T; Machado, Karina S; Basgalupp, Márcio P; de Carvalho, André C P L F; Ruiz, Duncan D; de Souza, Osmar Norberto

2012-11-21

This paper addresses the prediction of the free energy of binding of a drug candidate with enzyme InhA associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This problem is found within rational drug design, where interactions between drug candidates and target proteins are verified through molecular docking simulations. In this application, it is important not only to correctly predict the free energy of binding, but also to provide a comprehensible model that could be validated by a domain specialist. Decision-tree induction algorithms have been successfully used in drug-design related applications, specially considering that decision trees are simple to understand, interpret, and validate. There are several decision-tree induction algorithms available for general-use, but each one has a bias that makes it more suitable for a particular data distribution. In this article, we propose and investigate the automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to particular drug-enzyme binding data sets. We investigate the performance of our new method for evaluating binding conformations of different drug candidates to InhA, and we analyze our findings with respect to decision tree accuracy, comprehensibility, and biological relevance. The empirical analysis indicates that our method is capable of automatically generating decision-tree induction algorithms that significantly outperform the traditional C4.5 algorithm with respect to both accuracy and comprehensibility. In addition, we provide the biological interpretation of the rules generated by our approach, reinforcing the importance of comprehensible predictive models in this particular bioinformatics application. We conclude that automatically designing a decision-tree algorithm tailored to molecular docking data is a promising alternative for the prediction of the free energy from the binding of a drug candidate with a flexible-receptor.

Automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to flexible-receptor docking data

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background This paper addresses the prediction of the free energy of binding of a drug candidate with enzyme InhA associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This problem is found within rational drug design, where interactions between drug candidates and target proteins are verified through molecular docking simulations. In this application, it is important not only to correctly predict the free energy of binding, but also to provide a comprehensible model that could be validated by a domain specialist. Decision-tree induction algorithms have been successfully used in drug-design related applications, specially considering that decision trees are simple to understand, interpret, and validate. There are several decision-tree induction algorithms available for general-use, but each one has a bias that makes it more suitable for a particular data distribution. In this article, we propose and investigate the automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to particular drug-enzyme binding data sets. We investigate the performance of our new method for evaluating binding conformations of different drug candidates to InhA, and we analyze our findings with respect to decision tree accuracy, comprehensibility, and biological relevance. Results The empirical analysis indicates that our method is capable of automatically generating decision-tree induction algorithms that significantly outperform the traditional C4.5 algorithm with respect to both accuracy and comprehensibility. In addition, we provide the biological interpretation of the rules generated by our approach, reinforcing the importance of comprehensible predictive models in this particular bioinformatics application. Conclusions We conclude that automatically designing a decision-tree algorithm tailored to molecular docking data is a promising alternative for the prediction of the free energy from the binding of a drug candidate with a flexible-receptor. PMID:23171000

Foraging Bumble Bees Weigh the Reliability of Personal and Social Information.

PubMed

Dunlap, Aimee S; Nielsen, Matthew E; Dornhaus, Anna; Papaj, Daniel R

2016-05-09

Many animals, including insects, make decisions using both personally gathered information and social information derived from the behavior of other, usually conspecific, individuals [1]. Moreover, animals adjust use of social versus personal information appropriately under a variety of experimental conditions [2-5]. An important factor in how information is used is the information's reliability, that is, how consistently the information is correlated with something of relevance in the environment [6]. The reliability of information determines which signals should be attended to during communication [6-9], which types of stimuli animals should learn about, and even whether learning should evolve [10, 11]. Here, we show that bumble bees (Bombus impatiens) account for the reliability of personally acquired information (which flower color was previously associated with reward) and social information (which flowers are chosen by other bees) in making foraging decisions; however, the two types of information are not treated equally. Bees prefer to use social information if it predicts a reward at all, but if social information becomes entirely unreliable, flower color will be used instead. This greater sensitivity to the reliability of social information, and avoidance of conspecifics in some cases, may reflect the specific ecological circumstances of bee foraging. Overall, the bees' ability to make decisions based on both personally acquired and socially derived information, and the relative reliability of both, demonstrates a new level of sophistication and flexibility in animal, particularly insect, decision-making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability in individual assessment behaviour and its implications for collective decision-making.

PubMed

O'Shea-Wheller, Thomas A; Masuda, Naoki; Sendova-Franks, Ana B; Franks, Nigel R

2017-02-08

Self-organized systems of collective behaviour have been demonstrated in a number of group-living organisms. There is, however, less research relating to how variation in individual assessments may facilitate group decision-making. Here, we investigate this using the decentralized system of collective nest choice behaviour employed by the ant Temnothorax albipennis, combining experimental results with computational modelling. In experiments, isolated workers of this species were allowed to investigate new nest sites of differing quality, and it was found that for any given nest quality, there was wide variation among individuals in the durations that they spent within each nest site. Additionally, individual workers were consistent in spending more time in nest sites of higher quality, and less time in those of lower quality. Hence, the time spent in a new nest site must have included an assessment of nest quality. As nest site visit durations (henceforth termed assessment durations) are linked to recruitment, it is possible that the variability we observed may influence the collective decision-making process of colonies. Thus, we explored this further using a computational model of nest site selection, and found that heterogeneous nest assessments conferred a number of potential benefits. Furthermore, our experiments showed that nest quality assessments were flexible, being influenced by experience of prior options. Our findings help to elucidate the potential mechanisms underlying group behaviour, and highlight the importance of heterogeneity among individuals, rather than precise calibration, in shaping collective decision-making. © 2017 The Author(s).

Towards sustainable infrastructure management: knowledge-based service-oriented computing framework for visual analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vatcha, Rashna; Lee, Seok-Won; Murty, Ajeet; Tolone, William; Wang, Xiaoyu; Dou, Wenwen; Chang, Remco; Ribarsky, William; Liu, Wanqiu; Chen, Shen-en; Hauser, Edd

2009-05-01

Infrastructure management (and its associated processes) is complex to understand, perform and thus, hard to make efficient and effective informed decisions. The management involves a multi-faceted operation that requires the most robust data fusion, visualization and decision making. In order to protect and build sustainable critical assets, we present our on-going multi-disciplinary large-scale project that establishes the Integrated Remote Sensing and Visualization (IRSV) system with a focus on supporting bridge structure inspection and management. This project involves specific expertise from civil engineers, computer scientists, geographers, and real-world practitioners from industry, local and federal government agencies. IRSV is being designed to accommodate the essential needs from the following aspects: 1) Better understanding and enforcement of complex inspection process that can bridge the gap between evidence gathering and decision making through the implementation of ontological knowledge engineering system; 2) Aggregation, representation and fusion of complex multi-layered heterogeneous data (i.e. infrared imaging, aerial photos and ground-mounted LIDAR etc.) with domain application knowledge to support machine understandable recommendation system; 3) Robust visualization techniques with large-scale analytical and interactive visualizations that support users' decision making; and 4) Integration of these needs through the flexible Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) framework to compose and provide services on-demand. IRSV is expected to serve as a management and data visualization tool for construction deliverable assurance and infrastructure monitoring both periodically (annually, monthly, even daily if needed) as well as after extreme events.

Neurocognitive Characterizations of Russian Heroin Addicts without a Significant History of Other Drug Use

PubMed Central

Fishbein, Diana H.; Krupitsky, Evgeny; Flannery, Barbara A.; Langevin, Doris J.; Bobashev, Georgiy; Verbitskaya, Elena; Augustine, Cynthia B.; Bolla, Karen I.; Zvartau, Edwin; Schech, Barry; Egorova, Valentina; Bushara, Natali; Tsoy, Marina

2007-01-01

Research on the neurocognitive characteristics of heroin addiction is sparse and studies that do exist include polydrug abusers; thus, they are unable to distinguish neurocognitive effects of heroin from those of other drugs. To identify neurocognitive correlates specific to heroin addiction, the present study was conducted in St. Petersburg, Russia where individuals typically abuse and/or become addicted to only one substance, generally alcohol or heroin. Heroin addicts were recruited from an inpatient treatment facility in St. Petersburg. Three comparison groups included alcoholics, addicts who used both alcohol and heroin, and non-abusers. Psychiatric, background, and drug history evaluations were administered after detoxification to screen for exclusion criteria and characterize the sample. Executive Cognitive Functions (ECF) that largely activate areas of the prefrontal cortex and its circuitry measured include complex visual pattern recognition (Paired Associates Learning), working memory (Delayed Matching to Sample), problem solving (Stockings of Cambridge), executive decision making (Cambridge Decision Making Task), cognitive flexibility (Stroop Color-Word Task) and response shifting (Stop Change Task). In many respects, the heroin addicts were similar to alcohol and alcohol\\heroin dependent groups in neurocognitive deficits relative to controls. The primary finding was that heroin addicts exhibited significantly more disadvantageous decision making and longer deliberation times while making risky decisions than the other groups. Because the nature and degree of recovery from drug abuse are likely a function of the type or pattern of neurocognitive impairment, differential drug effects must be considered. PMID:17382488

Persistent neuronal activity in human prefrontal cortex links perception and action

PubMed Central

Haller, Matar; Case, John; Crone, Nathan E.; Chang, Edward F.; King-Stephens, David; Laxer, Kenneth D.; Weber, Peter B.; Parvizi, Josef; Knight, Robert T.; Shestyuk, Avgusta Y.

2017-01-01

How do humans flexibly respond to changing environmental demands on a sub-second temporal scale? Extensive research has highlighted the key role of the prefrontal cortex in flexible decision-making and adaptive behavior, yet the core mechanisms that translate sensory information into behavior remain undefined. Utilizing direct human cortical recordings, we investigated the temporal and spatial evolution of neuronal activity, indexed by the broadband gamma signal, while sixteen participants performed a broad range of self-paced cognitive tasks. Here we describe a robust domain- and modality-independent pattern of persistent stimulus-to-response neural activation that encodes stimulus features and predicts motor output on a trial-by-trial basis with near-perfect accuracy. Observed across a distributed network of brain areas, this persistent neural activation is centered in the prefrontal cortex and is required for successful response implementation, providing a functional substrate for domain-general transformation of perception into action, critical for flexible behavior.

Decision-makers' preferences for approving new medicines in Wales: a discrete-choice experiment with assessment of external validity.

PubMed

Linley, Warren G; Hughes, Dyfrig A

2013-04-01

Few studies to date have explored the stated preferences of national decision makers for health technology adoption criteria, and none of these have compared stated decision-making behaviours against actual behaviours. Assessment of the external validity of stated preference studies, such as discrete-choice experiments (DCEs), remains an under-researched area. The primary aim was to explore the preferences of All Wales Medicines Strategy Group (AWMSG) appraisal committee and appraisal sub-committee (the New Medicines Group) members ('appraisal committees') for specific new medicines adoption criteria. Secondary aims were to explore the external validity of respondents' stated preferences and the impact of question choice options upon preference structures in DCEs. A DCE was conducted to estimate appraisal committees members' preferences for incremental cost effectiveness, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, annual number of patients expected to be treated, the impact of the disease on patients before treatment, and the assessment of uncertainty in the economic evidence submitted for new medicines compared with current UK NHS treatment. Respondents evaluated 28 pairs of hypothetical new medicines, making a primary forced choice between each pair and a more flexible secondary choice, which permitted either, neither or both new medicines to be chosen. The performance of the resultant models was compared against previous AWMSG decisions. Forty-one out of a total of 80 past and present members of AWMSG appraisal committees completed the DCE. The incremental cost effectiveness of new medicines, and the QALY gains they provide, significantly (p < 0.0001) influence recommendations. Committee members were willing to accept higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and lower QALY gains for medicines that treat disease impacting primarily upon survival rather than quality of life, and where uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness estimates has been thoroughly explored. The number of patients to be treated by the new medicine did not exert a significant influence upon recommendations. The use of a flexible-choice question format revealed a different preference structure to the forced-choice format, but the performance of the two models was similar. Aggregate decisions of the AWMSG were well predicted by both models, but their sensitivity (64 %, 68 %) and specificity (55 %, 64 %) were limited. A willingness to trade the cost effectiveness and QALY gains against other factors indicates that economic efficiency and QALY maximisation are not the only considerations of committee members when making recommendations on the use of medicines in Wales. On average, appraisal committee members' stated preferences appear consistent with their actual decision-making behaviours, providing support for the external validity of our DCEs. However, as health technology assessment involves complex decision-making processes, and each individual recommendation may be influenced to varying degrees by a multitude of different considerations, the ability of our models to predict individual medicine recommendations is more limited.

Using multi-criteria decision analysis to appraise orphan drugs: a systematic review.

PubMed

Friedmann, Carlotta; Levy, Pierre; Hensel, Paul; Hiligsmann, Mickaël

2018-04-01

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) could potentially solve current methodological difficulties in the appraisal of orphan drugs. Areas covered: We provide an overview of the existing evidence regarding the use of MCDA in the appraisal of orphan drugs worldwide. Three databases (Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science) were searched for English, French and German literature published between January 2000 and April 2017. Full-text articles were supplemented with conference abstracts. A total of seven articles and six abstracts were identified. Expert commentary: The literature suggests that MCDA is increasingly being used in the context of appraising orphan drugs. It has shown itself to be a flexible approach with the potential to assist in decision-making regarding reimbursement for orphan drugs. However, further research regarding its application must be conducted.

Mental health reform in Georgia, 1992 to 1996.

PubMed

Elliott, R L

1996-11-01

In 1992 Georgia embarked on an ambitious reform of its public mental health system. Regional mental health authorities were created with consumers and family members as decision makers. Reform legislation required that hospital and community funds be combined to provide for flexible shifting of funds to communities as use of state hospitals decreased. However, after four years and at a cost of almost $15 million, few tangible results can be demonstrated. In fact, hospital admissions have increased since 1991. Further, a proposal for a Medicaid section 1115 waiver that would permit managed care organizations to assume responsibility for key decisions threatens to undermine the decision-making authority of regional mental health authorities. This paper summarizes the background leading to Georgia's reform, reviews its accomplishments, and suggests lessons to be gained from Georgia's experiences.

Multiattribute evaluation in formulary decision making as applied to calcium-channel blockers.

PubMed

Schumacher, G E

1991-02-01

The use of multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) to make a formulary decision involving calcium-channel blockers (CCBs) is described. The MAUT method is a procedure for identifying, characterizing, and comparing the many variables that may affect a decision. Although applications in pharmacy have been infrequent, MAUT should be particularly appealing to formulary committees. The steps of the MAUT method are (1) determine the viewpoint of the decision makers, (2) identify the decision alternatives, (3) identify the attributes to be evaluated, (4) identify the factors to be used in evaluating the attributes, (5) establish a utility scale for scoring each factor, (6) transform the values for each factor to its utility scale, (7) determine weights for each attribute and factor, (8) calculate the total utility score for each decision alternative, (9) determine which decision alternative has the greatest total score, and (10) perform a sensitivity analysis. The viewpoint of a formulary committee in a health maintenance organization was simulated to develop a model for using the MAUT method to compare CCBs for single-agent therapy of chronic stable angina in ambulatory patients for one year. The attributes chosen were effectiveness, safety, patient acceptance, and cost and weighted 36%, 29%, 21%, and 14%, respectively, as contributions to the evaluation. The rank order of the decision alternatives was (1) generic verapamil, (2) brand-name verapamil, (3) diltiazem, (4) nicardipine, and (5) nifedipine. The MAUT method provides a standardized yet flexible format for comparing and selecting among formulary alternatives.

Counseling Model Application: A Student Career Development Guidance for Decision Maker and Consultation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irwan; Gustientiedina; Sunarti; Desnelita, Yenny

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to design a counseling model application for a decision-maker and consultation system. This application as an alternative guidance and individual career development for students, that include career knowledge, planning and alternative options from an expert tool based on knowledge and rule to provide the solutions on student’s career decisions. This research produces a counseling model application to obtain the important information about student career development and facilitating individual student’s development through the service form, to connect their plan with their career according to their talent, interest, ability, knowledge, personality and other supporting factors. This application model can be used as tool to get information faster and flexible for the student’s guidance and counseling. So, it can help students in doing selection and making decision that appropriate with their choice of works.

Effects of Category-Specific Costs on Neural Systems for Perceptual Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Whiteley, Louise; Hulme, Oliver J.; Sahani, Maneesh; Dolan, Raymond J.

2010-01-01

Perceptual judgments are often biased by prospective losses, leading to changes in decision criteria. Little is known about how and where sensory evidence and cost information interact in the brain to influence perceptual categorization. Here we show that prospective losses systematically bias the perception of noisy face-house images. Asymmetries in category-specific cost were associated with enhanced blood-oxygen-level-dependent signal in a frontoparietal network. We observed selective activation of parahippocampal gyrus for changes in category-specific cost in keeping with the hypothesis that loss functions enact a particular task set that is communicated to visual regions. Across subjects, greater shifts in decision criteria were associated with greater activation of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Our results support a hypothesis that costs bias an intermediate representation between perception and action, expressed via general effects on frontal cortex, and selective effects on extrastriate cortex. These findings indicate that asymmetric costs may affect a neural implementation of perceptual decision making in a similar manner to changes in category expectation, constituting a step toward accounting for how prospective losses are flexibly integrated with sensory evidence in the brain. PMID:20357071

Choosing Psychiatry as a Career: Motivators and Deterrents at a Critical Decision-Making Juncture

PubMed Central

Wiesenfeld, Lesley; Abbey, Susan; Takahashi, Sue Glover; Abrahams, Caroline

2014-01-01

Objective To examine factors influencing the choice of psychiatry as a career between residency program application and ranking decision making. Methods: Using an online questionnaire, applicants to the largest Canadian psychiatry residency program were surveyed about the impact of various factors on their ultimate decision to enter psychiatry residency training. Results: Applicants reported that patient-related stigma was a motivator in considering psychiatry as a career, but that negative comments from colleagues, friends, and family about choosing psychiatry was a deterrent. Training program length, limited treatments, and insufficient clerkship exposure were noted as deterrents to choosing psychiatry, though future job prospects, the growing role of neuroscience, and diagnostic complexity positively influenced choosing psychiatry as a specialty. Research and elective time away opportunities were deemed relatively unimportant to ranking decisions, compared with more highly weighted factors, such as program flexibility, emphasis on psychotherapy, service– training balance, and training program location. Most applicants also reported continuing to fine tune ranking decisions between the application and ranking submission deadline. Conclusions: Stigma, exposure to psychiatry, diagnostic complexity, and an encouraging job market were highlighted as positive influences on the choice to enter psychiatry residency. Interview and information days represent opportunities for continued targeted recruitment activity for psychiatry residency programs. PMID:25161070

Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Morena; Nicol, Samuel; Wells, Jessie A.; Lahoz-Monfort, José J.; Wintle, Brendan; Bode, Michael; Wardrop, Martin; Walshe, Terry; Probert, William J. M.; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; McDonald Madden, Eve

2014-01-01

Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders.

Decision making under uncertainty and information processing in positive and negative mood states.

PubMed

Mohanty, Sachi Nandan; Suar, Damodar

2014-08-01

This study examines whether mood states (a) influence decision making under uncertainty and (b) affect information processing. 200 students at the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur participated in this study. Positive mood was induced by showing comedy movie clips to 100 participants and negative mood was induced by showing tragedy movie clips to another 100 participants. The participants were administered a questionnaire containing hypothetical situations of financial gains and losses, and a health risk problem. The participants selected a choice for each situation, and stated the reasons for their choice. Results suggested that the participants preferred cautious choices in the domain of gain and in health risk problems and risky choices in the domain of loss. Analysis of the reasons for the participants' choices suggested more fluency, originality, and flexibility of information in a negative mood compared to a positive mood. A negative (positive) mood state facilitated systematic (heuristic) information processing.

The importance of early investigation and publishing in an emergent health and environment crisis.

PubMed

Murase, Kaori

2016-10-01

To minimize the damage resulting from a long-term environmental disaster such as the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, early disclosure of research data by scientists and prompt decision making by government authorities are required in place of careful, time-consuming research and deliberation about the consequences and cause of the accident. A Bayesian approach with flexible statistical modeling helps scientists and encourages government authorities to make decisions based on environmental data available in the early stages of a disaster. It is evident from Fukushima and similar accidents that classical research methods involving statistical methodologies that require rigorous experimental design and complex data sets are too cumbersome and delay important actions that may be critical in the early stages of an environmental disaster. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:680-682. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

[Financing problems of capital goods: part 1: leasing as a solution?].

PubMed

Clausen, C C; Bauer, M; Saleh, A; Picker, O

2008-06-01

The provision of financial support of hospitals by States for buying capital goods is becoming increasingly more limited. In order to still make investments, alternative forms of financing such as leasing must be considered in hospitals. However, the change from the classical form of dual financing and the decision to opt for a leasing model involves much more than just a question of costs. Leasing results in easily manageable expenditure, flexibility and adaptability for the choice of model but the leasing installments must be directly financed by the turnover from diagnosis-related groups and so lead to a reduction in the annual profit. In this article the authors try to give the reader an overview of the complex and sometimes counter-productive effect of financial instruments for investments in hospitals using leasing financing as an example. In the follow-up article the decision-making procedure using dynamic investment calculations will be demonstrated using a concrete example.

Within- and across-trial dynamics of human EEG reveal cooperative interplay between reinforcement learning and working memory.

PubMed

Collins, Anne G E; Frank, Michael J

2018-03-06

Learning from rewards and punishments is essential to survival and facilitates flexible human behavior. It is widely appreciated that multiple cognitive and reinforcement learning systems contribute to decision-making, but the nature of their interactions is elusive. Here, we leverage methods for extracting trial-by-trial indices of reinforcement learning (RL) and working memory (WM) in human electro-encephalography to reveal single-trial computations beyond that afforded by behavior alone. Neural dynamics confirmed that increases in neural expectation were predictive of reduced neural surprise in the following feedback period, supporting central tenets of RL models. Within- and cross-trial dynamics revealed a cooperative interplay between systems for learning, in which WM contributes expectations to guide RL, despite competition between systems during choice. Together, these results provide a deeper understanding of how multiple neural systems interact for learning and decision-making and facilitate analysis of their disruption in clinical populations.

An Integrated Approach of Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Based AHP and Fuzzy COPRAS for Machine Tool Evaluation

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Md Dawal, Siti Zawiah; Nukman, Yusoff; Aoyama, Hideki; Case, Keith

2015-01-01

Globalization of business and competitiveness in manufacturing has forced companies to improve their manufacturing facilities to respond to market requirements. Machine tool evaluation involves an essential decision using imprecise and vague information, and plays a major role to improve the productivity and flexibility in manufacturing. The aim of this study is to present an integrated approach for decision-making in machine tool selection. This paper is focused on the integration of a consistent fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and a fuzzy COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS) for multi-attribute decision-making in selecting the most suitable machine tool. In this method, the fuzzy linguistic reference relation is integrated into AHP to handle the imprecise and vague information, and to simplify the data collection for the pair-wise comparison matrix of the AHP which determines the weights of attributes. The output of the fuzzy AHP is imported into the fuzzy COPRAS method for ranking alternatives through the closeness coefficient. Presentation of the proposed model application is provided by a numerical example based on the collection of data by questionnaire and from the literature. The results highlight the integration of the improved fuzzy AHP and the fuzzy COPRAS as a precise tool and provide effective multi-attribute decision-making for evaluating the machine tool in the uncertain environment. PMID:26368541

Flexing dual-systems models: How variable cognitive control in children informs our understanding of risk-taking across development.

PubMed

Li, Rosa

2017-10-01

Prevailing models of the development of decision-making propose that peak risk-taking occurs in adolescence due to a neural imbalance between two processes: gradual, linearly developing cognitive control and rapid, non-linearly developing reward-processing. Though many studies have found neural evidence supporting this dual-systems imbalance model, its behavioral predictions have been surprisingly difficult to document. Most laboratory studies have not found adolescents to exhibit greater risk-taking than children, and public health data show everyday risk-taking to peak in late adolescence/early adulthood. Moreover, when adolescents are provided detailed information about decision options and consequences, they evince similar behavior to adults. Such findings point to a critical feature of the development of decision-making that is missed by imbalance models. Specifically, the engagement of cognitive control is context dependent, such that cognitive control and therefore advantageous decision-making increases when available information is high and decreases when available information is low. Furthermore, the context dependence of cognitive control varies across development, such that increased information availability benefits children more than adolescents, who benefit more than adults. This review advances a flexible dual-systems model that is only imbalanced under certain conditions; explains disparities between neural, behavioral, and public health findings; and provides testable hypotheses for future research. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Comparative-effectiveness research to aid population decision making by relating clinical outcomes and quality-adjusted life years.

PubMed

Campbell, Jonathan D; Zerzan, Judy; Garrison, Louis P; Libby, Anne M

2013-04-01

Comparative-effectiveness research (CER) at the population level is missing standardized approaches to quantify and weigh interventions in terms of their clinical risks, benefits, and uncertainty. We proposed an adapted CER framework for population decision making, provided example displays of the outputs, and discussed the implications for population decision makers. Building on decision-analytical modeling but excluding cost, we proposed a 2-step approach to CER that explicitly compared interventions in terms of clinical risks and benefits and linked this evidence to the quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The first step was a traditional intervention-specific evidence synthesis of risks and benefits. The second step was a decision-analytical model to simulate intervention-specific progression of disease over an appropriate time. The output was the ability to compare and quantitatively link clinical outcomes with QALYs. The outputs from these CER models include clinical risks, benefits, and QALYs over flexible and relevant time horizons. This approach yields an explicit, structured, and consistent quantitative framework to weigh all relevant clinical measures. Population decision makers can use this modeling framework and QALYs to aid in their judgment of the individual and collective risks and benefits of the alternatives over time. Future research should study effective communication of these domains for stakeholders. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Melting down the Ice Queen: an integrative treatment of anorexia nervosa

PubMed Central

Hartogs, Bregje M A; Eikmans, Kirsten M; Bartels-Velthuis, Agna A

2013-01-01

A 23-year-old woman with anorexia nervosa (AN) and a strong need for control was offered an integrative treatment, empowering the patient to be an active participant and advocating shared decision-making. To emphasise this, both the therapist and patient describe their views on the therapy. The integrative treatment resulted in more psychological flexibility and behavioural improvements, as is evident from an increased weight, a decreased dietary restriction and an increased valued action. The strength of this integrative treatment is based on accepting and encouraging patient's self-chosen treatment method, within healthy limits, and thereby creating a flexible, supportive and empowering therapeutic alliance. More research is needed to test the efficacy of combining complementary therapies within conventional treatments of AN. PMID:23531925

Undercontribution bias in health care spending account decisions.

PubMed

Schweitzer, M E; Hershey, J C

1997-01-01

Results from this work describe 239 responses to a mailed survey regarding employee benefits decisions at a large eastern university. The primary objective of this work is to test for an undercontribution bias in health care financing decisions. The results establish the existence of an undercontribution bias in both actual employee decisions and hypothetical flexible spending account contribution decisions. We describe this bias within the context of related biases including loss aversion, mental accounting, status quo and omission biases. Surprisingly, we find a significant order effect in this study and posit that preference construction in this context is an active, reference-dependent process. In addition, results from this work demonstrate the endogenous nature of health care flexible spending account expenditures. The results have important implications both for the descriptive framework of and the normative solution to the flexible spending account contribution decision.

Brazil's Samuel Dam: lessons for hydroelectric development policy and the environment in Amazonia.

PubMed

Fearnside, Philip M

2005-01-01

Brazil's Samuel Dam, which formed a 540-km2 reservoir in the state of Rondônia in 1988, provides lessons for development decisions throughout Amazonia and in other tropical areas. The decision to build the dam was heavily influenced by its role in the political strategies of key decision makers. Samuel illustrates both impacts and benefits of electricity supply and the dilemmas facing decision makers regarding the various options for planned electricity generation. Environmental costs included flooding forest and stimulating illegal logging activity throughout western Amazonia because of an exception opened for Samuel in Brazil's prohibition of export of raw logs. Samuel emitted substantially more greenhouse gases than would have been emitted by generating the same amount of electricity from oil. Contamination of fish in the reservoir resulted from methylation of mercury present in the soil. Social costs of the dam included resettlement of 238 families of farmers; impacts on indigenous people were indirect. Mitigating measures included faunal rescue and creation of a forest reserve. The lessons of Samuel include the need to consider a full range of alternatives prior to making decisions in practice and the importance of adhering to the logical sequence of decision making, where information is gathered and compared prior to the decision. It also shows the need to maintain flexibility when the costs and benefits of different alternatives change significantly over the course of the project's planning and execution, as occurred at Samuel.

Web-services-based spatial decision support system to facilitate nuclear waste siting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, L. Xinglai; Sheng, Grant

2006-10-01

The availability of spatial web services enables data sharing among managers, decision and policy makers and other stakeholders in much simpler ways than before and subsequently has created completely new opportunities in the process of spatial decision making. Though generally designed for a certain problem domain, web-services-based spatial decision support systems (WSDSS) can provide a flexible problem-solving environment to explore the decision problem, understand and refine problem definition, and generate and evaluate multiple alternatives for decision. This paper presents a new framework for the development of a web-services-based spatial decision support system. The WSDSS is comprised of distributed web services that either have their own functions or provide different geospatial data and may reside in different computers and locations. WSDSS includes six key components, namely: database management system, catalog, analysis functions and models, GIS viewers and editors, report generators, and graphical user interfaces. In this study, the architecture of a web-services-based spatial decision support system to facilitate nuclear waste siting is described as an example. The theoretical, conceptual and methodological challenges and issues associated with developing web services-based spatial decision support system are described.

Cognitive function and mood in MDMA/THC users, THC users and non-drug using controls.

PubMed

Lamers, C T J; Bechara, A; Rizzo, M; Ramaekers, J G

2006-03-01

Repeated ecstasy (MDMA) use is reported to impair cognition and cause increased feelings of depression and anxiety. Yet, many relevant studies have failed to control for use of drugs other than MDMA, especially marijuana (THC). To address these confounding effects we compared behavioural performance of 11 MDMA/THC users, 15 THC users and 15 non-drug users matched for age and intellect. We tested the hypothesis that reported feelings of depression and anxiety and cognitive impairment (memory, executive function and decision making) are more severe in MDMA/THC users than in THC users. MDMA/THC users reported more intense feelings of depression and anxiety than THC users and non-drug users. Memory function was impaired in both groups of drug users. MDMA/THC users showed slower psychomotor speed and less mental flexibility than non-drug users. THC users exhibited less mental flexibility and performed worse on the decision making task compared to non-drug users but these functions were similar to those in MDMA/THC users. It was concluded that MDMA use is associated with increased feelings of depression and anxiety compared to THC users and non-drug users. THC users were impaired in some cognitive abilities to the same degree as MDMA/THC users, suggesting that some cognitive impairment attributed to MDMA is more likely due to concurrent THC use.

Field Effect Transistor Behavior in Electrospun Polyaniline/Polyethylene Oxide Nanofibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miranda, Felix A.; Theofylaktos, Noulle; Robinson, Daryl C.; Mueller, Carl H.; Pinto, Nicholas J.

2004-01-01

Novel translators and logic devices based on nanotechnology concepts are under intense development. The potential for ultra-low power circuitry makes nanotechnology attractive for applications such as digital electronics and sensors. Furthermore, the ability to form devices on flexible substrates expands the range of applications where electronic circuitry can be introduced. For NASA, nonotechndogy offers opportunities for increased onboard data processing and thus autonomous decision-making ability, ad novel sensors that detect and respond to external stimuli with few oversight requirements. The goat of this work is to demonstrate transistor behavior in polyaniline/ polyethylene oxide nanofibers, thus creating a foundation for future logic devices.

Perceptual and categorical decision making: goal-relevant representation of two domains at different levels of abstraction.

PubMed

Shankar, Swetha; Kayser, Andrew S

2017-06-01

To date it has been unclear whether perceptual decision making and rule-based categorization reflect activation of similar cognitive processes and brain regions. On one hand, both map potentially ambiguous stimuli to a smaller set of motor responses. On the other hand, decisions about perceptual salience typically concern concrete sensory representations derived from a noisy stimulus, while categorization is typically conceptualized as an abstract decision about membership in a potentially arbitrary set. Previous work has primarily examined these types of decisions in isolation. Here we independently varied salience in both the perceptual and categorical domains in a random dot-motion framework by manipulating dot-motion coherence and motion direction relative to a category boundary, respectively. Behavioral and modeling results suggest that categorical (more abstract) information, which is more relevant to subjects' decisions, is weighted more strongly than perceptual (more concrete) information, although they also have significant interactive effects on choice. Within the brain, BOLD activity within frontal regions strongly differentiated categorical salience and weakly differentiated perceptual salience; however, the interaction between these two factors activated similar frontoparietal brain networks. Notably, explicitly evaluating feature interactions revealed a frontal-parietal dissociation: parietal activity varied strongly with both features, but frontal activity varied with the combined strength of the information that defined the motor response. Together, these data demonstrate that frontal regions are driven by decision-relevant features and argue that perceptual decisions and rule-based categorization reflect similar cognitive processes and activate similar brain networks to the extent that they define decision-relevant stimulus-response mappings. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Here we study the behavioral and neural dynamics of perceptual categorization when decision information varies in multiple domains at different levels of abstraction. Behavioral and modeling results suggest that categorical (more abstract) information is weighted more strongly than perceptual (more concrete) information but that perceptual and categorical domains interact to influence decisions. Frontoparietal brain activity during categorization flexibly represents decision-relevant features and highlights significant dissociations in frontal and parietal activity during decision making. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Perceptual and categorical decision making: goal-relevant representation of two domains at different levels of abstraction

PubMed Central

Kayser, Andrew S.

2017-01-01

To date it has been unclear whether perceptual decision making and rule-based categorization reflect activation of similar cognitive processes and brain regions. On one hand, both map potentially ambiguous stimuli to a smaller set of motor responses. On the other hand, decisions about perceptual salience typically concern concrete sensory representations derived from a noisy stimulus, while categorization is typically conceptualized as an abstract decision about membership in a potentially arbitrary set. Previous work has primarily examined these types of decisions in isolation. Here we independently varied salience in both the perceptual and categorical domains in a random dot-motion framework by manipulating dot-motion coherence and motion direction relative to a category boundary, respectively. Behavioral and modeling results suggest that categorical (more abstract) information, which is more relevant to subjects’ decisions, is weighted more strongly than perceptual (more concrete) information, although they also have significant interactive effects on choice. Within the brain, BOLD activity within frontal regions strongly differentiated categorical salience and weakly differentiated perceptual salience; however, the interaction between these two factors activated similar frontoparietal brain networks. Notably, explicitly evaluating feature interactions revealed a frontal-parietal dissociation: parietal activity varied strongly with both features, but frontal activity varied with the combined strength of the information that defined the motor response. Together, these data demonstrate that frontal regions are driven by decision-relevant features and argue that perceptual decisions and rule-based categorization reflect similar cognitive processes and activate similar brain networks to the extent that they define decision-relevant stimulus-response mappings. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Here we study the behavioral and neural dynamics of perceptual categorization when decision information varies in multiple domains at different levels of abstraction. Behavioral and modeling results suggest that categorical (more abstract) information is weighted more strongly than perceptual (more concrete) information but that perceptual and categorical domains interact to influence decisions. Frontoparietal brain activity during categorization flexibly represents decision-relevant features and highlights significant dissociations in frontal and parietal activity during decision making. PMID:28250149

Adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Fiji.

PubMed

Weeks, Rebecca; Jupiter, Stacy D

2013-12-01

Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. Co-Manejo Adaptativo de una Red de Áreas Marinas Protegidas en Fiyi. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Behavioural and neural modulation of win-stay but not lose-shift strategies as a function of outcome value in Rock, Paper, Scissors.

PubMed

Forder, Lewis; Dyson, Benjamin James

2016-09-23

Competitive environments in which individuals compete for mutually-exclusive outcomes require rational decision making in order to maximize gains but often result in poor quality heuristics. Reasons for the greater reliance on lose-shift relative to win-stay behaviour shown in previous studies were explored using the game of Rock, Paper, Scissors and by manipulating the value of winning and losing. Decision-making following a loss was characterized as relatively fast and relatively inflexible both in terms of the failure to modulate the magnitude of lose-shift strategy and the lack of significant neural modulation. In contrast, decision-making following a win was characterized as relatively slow and relatively flexible both in terms of a behavioural increase in the magnitude of win-stay strategy and a neural modulation of feedback-related negativity (FRN) and stimulus-preceding negativity (SPN) following outcome value modulation. The win-stay/lose-shift heuristic appears not to be a unified mechanism, with the former relying on System 2 processes and the latter relying on System 1 processes. Our ability to play rationally appears more likely when the outcome is positive and when the value of wins are low, highlighting how vulnerable we can be when trying to succeed during competition.

Cognitive dysfunction in Body Dysmorphic Disorder: New implications for nosological systems & neurobiological models

PubMed Central

Jefferies-Sewell, K; Chamberlain, SR; Fineberg, NA; Laws, KR

2017-01-01

Background Body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) is a debilitating disorder, characterised by obsessions and compulsions relating specifically to perceived appearance, newly classified within the DSM-5 Obsessive-Compulsive and Related Disorders grouping. Until now, little research has been conducted into the cognitive profile of this disorder. Materials and Methods Participants with BDD (n=12) and healthy controls (n=16) were tested using a computerised neurocognitive battery investigating attentional set-shifting (Intra/Extra Dimensional Set Shift Task), decision-making (Cambridge Gamble Task), motor response-inhibition (Stop-Signal Reaction Time Task) and affective processing (Affective Go-No Go Task). The groups were matched for age, IQ and education. Results In comparison to controls, patients with BDD showed significantly impaired attentional set shifting, abnormal decision-making, impaired response inhibition and greater omission and commission errors on the emotional processing task. Conclusions Despite the modest sample size, our results showed that individuals with BDD performed poorly compared to healthy controls on tests of cognitive flexibility, reward and motor impulsivity and affective processing. Results from separate studies in OCD patients suggest similar cognitive dysfunction. Therefore, these findings are consistent with the re-classification of BDD alongside OCD. These data also hint at additional areas of decision-making abnormalities that might contribute specifically to the psychopathology of BDD. PMID:27899165

Insights into water managers' perception and handling of uncertainties - a study of the role of uncertainty in practitioners' planning and decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höllermann, Britta; Evers, Mariele

2017-04-01

Planning and decision-making under uncertainty is common in water management due to climate variability, simplified models, societal developments, planning restrictions just to name a few. Dealing with uncertainty can be approached from two sites, hereby affecting the process and form of communication: Either improve the knowledge base by reducing uncertainties or apply risk-based approaches to acknowledge uncertainties throughout the management process. Current understanding is that science more strongly focusses on the former approach, while policy and practice are more actively applying a risk-based approach to handle incomplete and/or ambiguous information. The focus of this study is on how water managers perceive and handle uncertainties at the knowledge/decision interface in their daily planning and decision-making routines. How they evaluate the role of uncertainties for their decisions and how they integrate this information into the decision-making process. Expert interviews and questionnaires among practitioners and scientists provided an insight into their perspectives on uncertainty handling allowing a comparison of diverse strategies between science and practice as well as between different types of practitioners. Our results confirmed the practitioners' bottom up approach from potential measures upwards instead of impact assessment downwards common in science-based approaches. This science-practice gap may hinder effective uncertainty integration and acknowledgement in final decisions. Additionally, the implementation of an adaptive and flexible management approach acknowledging uncertainties is often stalled by rigid regulations favouring a predict-and-control attitude. However, the study showed that practitioners' level of uncertainty recognition varies with respect to his or her affiliation to type of employer and business unit, hence, affecting the degree of the science-practice-gap with respect to uncertainty recognition. The level of working experience was examined as a cross-cutting property of science and practice with increasing levels of uncertainty awareness and integration among more experienced researchers and practitioners. In conclusion, our study of water managers' perception and handling of uncertainties provides valuable insights for finding routines for uncertainty communication and integration into planning and decision-making processes by acknowledging the divers perceptions among producers, users and receivers of uncertainty information. These results can contribute to more effective integration of hydrological forecast and improved decisions.

Project coalitions in healthcare construction projects and the application of real options: an exploratory survey.

PubMed

van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Dewulf, Geert; Voordijk, Hans

2013-01-01

Exploring the impact of the type of project coalition on types of flexibility by analyzing considered and exercised flexibilities in separated and integrated project coalitions in the design and construction phase and the operations and maintenance phase of a healthcare construction project. Flexibility in healthcare construction projects is increasingly needed in order to deal with growing uncertainties. Until now, little research has been carried out on how and to what extent flexibility is incorporated in different types of project coalitions chosen by healthcare organizations. An exploratory survey was conducted among health organizations in both cure and care. Questions were asked on the position of the real estate department within the organization, the type of project coalitions chosen and the rationale behind this choice, and the extent to which flexibility in terms of a real option was considered and to what extent it had been exercised in a project coalition. Integrated project coalitions pay more attention to flexibility in advance in both the process and the product, but exercise them to a lesser extent than separated project coalitions. The economic feasibility of real options is higher in integrated project coalitions. The study shows that real options thinking is already incorporated in real estate management of healthcare organizations, although more flexibility is considered in advance of the project than is actually realized during and after construction. Built environment, construction, decision making, hospitals, planning.

Eradicating the grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis from urban areas: an innovative decision-making approach based on lessons learnt in Italy.

PubMed

La Morgia, Valentina; Paoloni, Daniele; Genovesi, Piero

2017-02-01

Eradication of invasive alien species supports the recovery of native biodiversity. A new European Union Regulation introduces obligations to eradicate the most harmful invasive species. However, eradications of charismatic mammals may encounter strong opposition. Considering the case study of the eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis Gmelin, 1788) in central Italy, we developed a structured decision-making technique based on a Bayesian decision network model and explicitly considering the plurality of environmental values of invasive species management to reduce potential social conflicts. The model identified priority areas for management activities. These areas corresponded to the core of the grey squirrel range, but they also included peripheral zones, where rapid eradication is fundamental to prevent the spread of squirrels. However, when the model was expanded to integrate the attitude of citizens towards the project, the intervention strategy slightly changed. In some areas, the citizens' support was limited, and this resulted in a reduced overall utility of intervention. The suggested approach extends the scientific basis for management decisions, evaluated in terms of technical efficiency, feasibility and social impact. Here, the Bayesian decision network model analysed the potential technical and social consequences of management actions, and it responded to the need for transparency in the decision-making process, but it can easily be extended to consider further issues that are common in many mammal eradication programmes. Owing to its flexibility and comprehensiveness, it provides an innovative example of how to plan rapid eradication or control activities, as required by the new EU Regulation. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Perceptual decision processes flexibly adapt to avoid change-of-mind motor costs

PubMed Central

Moher, Jeff; Song, Joo-Hyun

2014-01-01

The motor system is tightly linked with perception and cognition. Recent studies have shown that even anticipated biophysical action costs associated with competing response options can be incorporated into decision-making processes. As a result, choices associated with high energy costs are less likely to be selected. However, some action costs may be harder to predict. For example, a person choosing among apples at a grocery store may change his or her mind suddenly about which apple to put into the cart. This change of mind may be reflected in motor output as the initial decision triggers a motor response toward a Granny Smith that is subsequently redirected toward a Red Delicious. In the present study, to examine how motor costs associated with changes of mind affect perceptual decision making, participants performed a difficult random dot–motion discrimination task in which they had to indicate the direction of motion by reaching to one of two response options. Although each response box was always equidistant from the starting position, the physical distance between the two response options was varied. We found that when the boxes were far apart from one another, and thus changes of mind incurred greater redirection motor costs, change-of-mind frequency decreased while latency to initiate movement increased. This occurred even when response box distance varied randomly from trial to trial and was cued only 1 s before each trial began. Thus, we demonstrated that observers can dynamically adjust perceptual decision-making processes to avoid high motor costs incurred by a change of mind. PMID:24986186

Effective visualization of integrated knowledge and data to enable informed decisions in drug development and translational medicine

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Integrative understanding of preclinical and clinical data is imperative to enable informed decisions and reduce the attrition rate during drug development. The volume and variety of data generated during drug development have increased tremendously. A new information model and visualization tool was developed to effectively utilize all available data and current knowledge. The Knowledge Plot integrates preclinical, clinical, efficacy and safety data by adding two concepts: knowledge from the different disciplines and protein binding. Internal and public available data were gathered and processed to allow flexible and interactive visualizations. The exposure was expressed as the unbound concentration of the compound and the treatment effect was normalized and scaled by including expert opinion on what a biologically meaningful treatment effect would be. The Knowledge Plot has been applied both retrospectively and prospectively in project teams in a number of different therapeutic areas, resulting in closer collaboration between multiple disciplines discussing both preclinical and clinical data. The Plot allows head to head comparisons of compounds and was used to support Candidate Drug selections and differentiation from comparators and competitors, back translation of clinical data, understanding the predictability of preclinical models and assays, reviewing drift in primary endpoints over the years, and evaluate or benchmark compounds in due diligence comparing multiple attributes. The Knowledge Plot concept allows flexible integration and visualization of relevant data for interpretation in order to enable scientific and informed decision-making in various stages of drug development. The concept can be used for communication, decision-making, knowledge management, and as a forward and back translational tool, that will result in an improved understanding of the competitive edge for a particular project or disease area portfolio. In addition, it also builds up a knowledge and translational continuum, which in turn will reduce the attrition rate and costs of clinical development by identifying poor candidates early. PMID:24098919

Uncertainty Categorization, Modeling, and Management for Regional Water Supply Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K. M.; AlSaati, A.; Alhassan, A.

2016-12-01

Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from growing demands, variability in supply and a changing climate. Short-term variation in water availability and demand; long-term uncertainty in climate, groundwater storage, and sectoral competition for water; and varying stakeholder perspectives on the impacts of water shortages make it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they are the result of stochastic variation or epistemic uncertainty, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are deep uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. We develop a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, sensitivity analysis for deep uncertainty and Bayesian decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. We apply this framework to two contrasting case studies - drought preparedness in Melbourne, Australia and fossil groundwater depletion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - to assess the impacts of different types of uncertainty on infrastructure decisions. Melbourne's water supply system relies on surface water, which is impacted by natural variation in rainfall, and a market-based system for managing water rights. Our results show that small, flexible investment increases can mitigate shortage risk considerably at reduced cost. Riyadh, by contrast, relies primarily on desalination for municipal use and fossil groundwater for agriculture, and a centralized planner makes allocation decisions. Poor regional groundwater measurement makes it difficult to know when groundwater pumping will become uneconomical, resulting in epistemic uncertainty. However, collecting more data can reduce the uncertainty, suggesting the need for different uncertainty modeling and management strategies in Riyadh than in Melbourne. We will categorize the two systems and propose appropriate decision making under uncertainty methods from the state of the art. We will compare the efficiency of alternative approaches to the two case studies. Finally, we will present a hybrid decision analytic tool to address the synthesis of uncertainties.

Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate.

PubMed

Mills, Morena; Nicol, Sam; Wells, Jessie A; Lahoz-Monfort, José J; Wintle, Brendan; Bode, Michael; Wardrop, Martin; Walshe, Terry; Probert, William J M; Runge, Michael C; Possingham, Hugh P; Madden, Eve McDonald

2014-06-01

Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Decision making with environmental indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoag, Dana L.; Ascough, James C.; Keske-Handley, C.; Koontz, Lynne; Burk, A.R.

2005-01-01

Since Ott's seminal book on environmental indices (1978), the use of indices has expanded into several natural resource disciplines, including ecological studies, environmental policymaking, and agricultural economics. However, despite their increasing use in natural resource disciplines, researchers and public decision makers continue to express concern about validity of these instruments to capture and communicate multidimensional, and sometimes disparate, characteristics of research data and stakeholder interests. Our purpose is to demonstrate how useful indices can be for communicating environmental information to decision makers. We discuss how environmental indices have evolved over four stages: 1) simple; 2) compound multicriteria; 3) the impact matrix and 4) disparate stakeholder management. We provide examples of simple and compound indices that were used by policy decision makers. We then build a framework, called an Impact Matrix (IM), that comprehensively accounts for multiple indices but lets the user decide how to integrate them. The IM was shaped from the concept of a financial risk payoff matrix and applied to ecosystem risk. While the IM offers flexibility, it does not address stakeholder preferences about which index to use. Therefore, the last phase in our evolutionary ladder includes stakeholder indices to specifically address disparate stakeholder preferences. Finally, we assert that an environmental index has the potential to increase resource efficiency, since the number of decision making resources may be reduced, and hence improve upon resource productivity

The role of the hippocampus in flexible cognition and social behavior

PubMed Central

Rubin, Rachael D.; Watson, Patrick D.; Duff, Melissa C.; Cohen, Neal J.

2014-01-01

Successful behavior requires actively acquiring and representing information about the environment and people, and manipulating and using those acquired representations flexibly to optimally act in and on the world. The frontal lobes have figured prominently in most accounts of flexible or goal-directed behavior, as evidenced by often-reported behavioral inflexibility in individuals with frontal lobe dysfunction. Here, we propose that the hippocampus also plays a critical role by forming and reconstructing relational memory representations that underlie flexible cognition and social behavior. There is mounting evidence that damage to the hippocampus can produce inflexible and maladaptive behavior when such behavior places high demands on the generation, recombination, and flexible use of information. This is seen in abilities as diverse as memory, navigation, exploration, imagination, creativity, decision-making, character judgments, establishing and maintaining social bonds, empathy, social discourse, and language use. Thus, the hippocampus, together with its extensive interconnections with other neural systems, supports the flexible use of information in general. Further, we suggest that this understanding has important clinical implications. Hippocampal abnormalities can produce profound deficits in real-world situations, which typically place high demands on the flexible use of information, but are not always obvious on diagnostic tools tuned to frontal lobe function. This review documents the role of the hippocampus in supporting flexible representations and aims to expand our understanding of the dynamic networks that operate as we move through and create meaning of our world. PMID:25324753

The role of the hippocampus in flexible cognition and social behavior.

PubMed

Rubin, Rachael D; Watson, Patrick D; Duff, Melissa C; Cohen, Neal J

2014-01-01

Successful behavior requires actively acquiring and representing information about the environment and people, and manipulating and using those acquired representations flexibly to optimally act in and on the world. The frontal lobes have figured prominently in most accounts of flexible or goal-directed behavior, as evidenced by often-reported behavioral inflexibility in individuals with frontal lobe dysfunction. Here, we propose that the hippocampus also plays a critical role by forming and reconstructing relational memory representations that underlie flexible cognition and social behavior. There is mounting evidence that damage to the hippocampus can produce inflexible and maladaptive behavior when such behavior places high demands on the generation, recombination, and flexible use of information. This is seen in abilities as diverse as memory, navigation, exploration, imagination, creativity, decision-making, character judgments, establishing and maintaining social bonds, empathy, social discourse, and language use. Thus, the hippocampus, together with its extensive interconnections with other neural systems, supports the flexible use of information in general. Further, we suggest that this understanding has important clinical implications. Hippocampal abnormalities can produce profound deficits in real-world situations, which typically place high demands on the flexible use of information, but are not always obvious on diagnostic tools tuned to frontal lobe function. This review documents the role of the hippocampus in supporting flexible representations and aims to expand our understanding of the dynamic networks that operate as we move through and create meaning of our world.

The Growth of the Japanese Economy: Challenges to American National Security

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

the flexibility to make decisions and the ability to fend for oneself , which are indispensable parts of anN country’s national security---would indeed...Europe, but American industry in Europe.ඪ As far as Japan was concerned, Servan-Schreiber admitted that it "...will manage to keep up to the... managing its economic machine in a manner that the United States found more acceptable. It is a simple assumption, yet it has been the cornerstone of the

Consultant paediatric outreach clinics--a practical step in integration.

PubMed

Spencer, N J

1993-04-01

Ten years' experience of paediatric outreach clinics is reviewed and evaluated. The advantages and disadvantages of paediatric outreach and its possible place in the new era of contracting and more developed community paediatric services are discussed. It is concluded that paediatric outreach increases parental and professional choice and access to paediatric consultant services, increases service flexibility, reduces unnecessary hospital visits, and enables more rational and relevant clinical decision making. Outreach is particularly relevant in areas of deprivation where paediatric needs are greatest.

Consultant paediatric outreach clinics--a practical step in integration.

PubMed Central

Spencer, N J

1993-01-01

Ten years' experience of paediatric outreach clinics is reviewed and evaluated. The advantages and disadvantages of paediatric outreach and its possible place in the new era of contracting and more developed community paediatric services are discussed. It is concluded that paediatric outreach increases parental and professional choice and access to paediatric consultant services, increases service flexibility, reduces unnecessary hospital visits, and enables more rational and relevant clinical decision making. Outreach is particularly relevant in areas of deprivation where paediatric needs are greatest. PMID:8503675

Performance assessment in complex individual and team tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eddy, Douglas R.

1992-01-01

Described here is an eclectic, performance based approach to assessing cognitive performance from multiple perspectives. The experience gained from assessing the effects of antihistamines and scenario difficulty on C (exp 2) decision making performance in Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) weapons director (WD) teams can serve as a model for realistic simulations in space operations. Emphasis is placed on the flexibility of measurement, hierarchical organization of measurement levels, data collection from multiple perspectives, and the difficulty of managing large amounts of data.

Toward the modelling of safety violations in healthcare systems.

PubMed

Catchpole, Ken

2013-09-01

When frontline staff do not adhere to policies, protocols, or checklists, managers often regard these violations as indicating poor practice or even negligence. More often than not, however, these policy and protocol violations reflect the efforts of well intentioned professionals to carry out their work efficiently in the face of systems poorly designed to meet the diverse demands of patient care. Thus, non-compliance with institutional policies and protocols often signals a systems problem, rather than a people problem, and can be influenced among other things by training, competing goals, context, process, location, case complexity, individual beliefs, the direct or indirect influence of others, job pressure, flexibility, rule definition, and clinician-centred design. Three candidates are considered for developing a model of safety behaviour and decision making. The dynamic safety model helps to understand the relationship between systems designs and human performance. The theory of planned behaviour suggests that intention is a function of attitudes, social norms and perceived behavioural control. The naturalistic decision making paradigm posits that decisions are based on a wider view of multiple patients, expertise, systems complexity, behavioural intention, individual beliefs and current understanding of the system. Understanding and predicting behavioural safety decisions could help us to encourage compliance to current processes and to design better interventions.

A simple way to unify multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) using a Dirichlet distribution in benefit-risk assessment.

PubMed

Saint-Hilary, Gaelle; Cadour, Stephanie; Robert, Veronique; Gasparini, Mauro

2017-05-01

Quantitative methodologies have been proposed to support decision making in drug development and monitoring. In particular, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) are useful tools to assess the benefit-risk ratio of medicines according to the performances of the treatments on several criteria, accounting for the preferences of the decision makers regarding the relative importance of these criteria. However, even in its probabilistic form, MCDA requires the exact elicitations of the weights of the criteria by the decision makers, which may be difficult to achieve in practice. SMAA allows for more flexibility and can be used with unknown or partially known preferences, but it is less popular due to its increased complexity and the high degree of uncertainty in its results. In this paper, we propose a simple model as a generalization of MCDA and SMAA, by applying a Dirichlet distribution to the weights of the criteria and by making its parameters vary. This unique model permits to fit both MCDA and SMAA, and allows for a more extended exploration of the benefit-risk assessment of treatments. The precision of its results depends on the precision parameter of the Dirichlet distribution, which could be naturally interpreted as the strength of confidence of the decision makers in their elicitation of preferences. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A case study exploring the ethical and policy dimensions of allocating acute care resources to a dying patient.

PubMed

Cooke, Mary; Hurley, Ciarán

2008-05-01

We aimed to identify policy, process and ethical issues related to allocation of National Health Service resources when patients with end-of-life illness are referred to acute care services. Sharing healthcare decisions denotes a different partnership between professionals and patients when patients are empowered to define their needs. Implementation of a transition from professional to patient decision-making appears to be dependent upon its interpretation by personnel delivering care using the local trust policy. The outcome of this is a reformation of responsibility for budget allocation, choice of acute care provider and selecting services, currently in the realm of primary care; be it the general practitioner, community practitioners, or the patient. We used a 'lens' approach to case study analysis in which the lens is constructed of a model of policy analysis and four principles of biomedical ethics. A patient's decision to decline care proposed by an Accident and Emergency department nurse and the nurse's response to that decision expose a policy that restricts the use of ambulance transport and with that, flexibility in responses to patients' decisions. End-of-life care partnership decisions require sensitivity and flexibility from all healthcare practitioners. We found that policy-based systems currently used to deliver care across the primary care - hospital care border are far from seamless and can lead to foreseeable problems. Health professionals responsible for the care of a patient at the end of life should consider the holistic outcomes of resource allocation decisions for patients. Government and health professional agenda suggest that patients should be given a greater element of control over their healthcare than has historically been the case. When patients take responsibility for their decisions, healthcare personnel should recognize that this signals a shift in the nature of the professional-patient relationship to one of partnership.

Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Yong

In this dissertation, the problem of flexible demand management under time-varying prices is studied. This generic problem has many applications, which usually have multiple periods in which decisions on satisfying demand need to be made, and prices in these periods are time-varying. Examples of such applications include multi-period procurement problem, operating room scheduling, and user-end demand scheduling in the Smart Grid, where the last application is used as the main motivating story throughout the dissertation. The current grid is experiencing an upgrade with lots of new designs. What is of particular interest is the idea of passing time-varying prices that reflect electricity market conditions to end users as incentives for load shifting. One key component, consequently, is the demand management system at the user-end. The objective of the system is to find the optimal trade-off between cost saving and discomfort increment resulted from load shifting. In this dissertation, we approach this problem from the following aspects: (1) construct a generic model, solve for Pareto optimal solutions, and analyze the robust solution that optimizes the worst-case payoffs, (2) extend to a distribution-free model for multiple types of demand (appliances), for which an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach is developed, and (3) design other efficient algorithms for practical purposes of the flexible demand management system. We first construct a novel multi-objective flexible demand management model, in which there are a finite number of periods with time-varying prices, and demand arrives in each period. In each period, the decision maker chooses to either satisfy or defer outstanding demand to minimize costs and discomfort over a certain number of periods. We consider both the deterministic model, models with stochastic demand or prices, and when only partial information about the stochastic demand or prices is known. We first analyze the stochastic optimization problem when the objective is to minimize the expected total cost and discomfort, then since the decision maker is likely to be risk-averse, and she wants to protect herself from price spikes, we study the robust optimization problem to address the risk-aversion of the decision maker. We conduct numerical studies to evaluate the price of robustness. Next, we present a detailed model that manages multiple types of flexible demand in the absence of knowledge regarding the distributions of related stochastic processes. Specifically, we consider the case in which time-varying prices with general structures are offered to users, and an energy management system for each household makes optimal energy usage, storage, and trading decisions according to the preferences of users. Because of the uncertainties associated with electricity prices, local generation, and the arrival processes of demand, we formulate a stochastic dynamic programming model, and outline a novel and tractable ADP approach to overcome the curses of dimensionality. Then, we perform numerical studies, whose results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ADP approach. At last, we propose another approximation approach based on Q-learning. In addition, we also develop another decentralization-based heuristic. Both the Q-learning approach and the heuristic make necessary assumptions on the knowledge of information, and each of them has unique advantages. We conduct numerical studies on a testing problem. The simulation results show that both the Q-learning and the decentralization based heuristic approaches work well. Lastly, we conclude the paper with some discussions on future extension directions.

Hierarchical Bayes approach for subgroup analysis.

PubMed

Hsu, Yu-Yi; Zalkikar, Jyoti; Tiwari, Ram C

2017-01-01

In clinical data analysis, both treatment effect estimation and consistency assessment are important for a better understanding of the drug efficacy for the benefit of subjects in individual subgroups. The linear mixed-effects model has been used for subgroup analysis to describe treatment differences among subgroups with great flexibility. The hierarchical Bayes approach has been applied to linear mixed-effects model to derive the posterior distributions of overall and subgroup treatment effects. In this article, we discuss the prior selection for variance components in hierarchical Bayes, estimation and decision making of the overall treatment effect, as well as consistency assessment of the treatment effects across the subgroups based on the posterior predictive p-value. Decision procedures are suggested using either the posterior probability or the Bayes factor. These decision procedures and their properties are illustrated using a simulated example with normally distributed response and repeated measurements.

A Wireless Sensor Network-Based Approach with Decision Support for Monitoring Lake Water Quality.

PubMed

Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Chen, Shaoli; Zhu, Xiaomin

2015-11-19

Online monitoring and water quality analysis of lakes are urgently needed. A feasible and effective approach is to use a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Lake water environments, like other real world environments, present many changing and unpredictable situations. To ensure flexibility in such an environment, the WSN node has to be prepared to deal with varying situations. This paper presents a WSN self-configuration approach for lake water quality monitoring. The approach is based on the integration of a semantic framework, where a reasoner can make decisions on the configuration of WSN services. We present a WSN ontology and the relevant water quality monitoring context information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment. We also propose a rule-based reasoning engine that is used to conduct decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. To evaluate the approach, we conduct usability experiments and performance benchmarks.

Reflexive Principlism as an Effective Approach for Developing Ethical Reasoning in Engineering.

PubMed

Beever, Jonathan; Brightman, Andrew O

2016-02-01

An important goal of teaching ethics to engineering students is to enhance their ability to make well-reasoned ethical decisions in their engineering practice: a goal in line with the stated ethical codes of professional engineering organizations. While engineering educators have explored a wide range of methodologies for teaching ethics, a satisfying model for developing ethical reasoning skills has not been adopted broadly. In this paper we argue that a principlist-based approach to ethical reasoning is uniquely suited to engineering ethics education. Reflexive Principlism is an approach to ethical decision-making that focuses on internalizing a reflective and iterative process of specification, balancing, and justification of four core ethical principles in the context of specific cases. In engineering, that approach provides structure to ethical reasoning while allowing the flexibility for adaptation to varying contexts through specification. Reflexive Principlism integrates well with the prevalent and familiar methodologies of reasoning within the engineering disciplines as well as with the goals of engineering ethics education.

Flexible modulation of risk attitude during decision-making under quota.

PubMed

Fujimoto, Atsushi; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2016-10-01

Risk attitude is often regarded as an intrinsic parameter in the individual personality. However, ethological studies reported state-dependent strategy optimization irrespective of individual preference. To synthesize the two contrasting literatures, we developed a novel gambling task that dynamically manipulated the quota severity (required outcome to clear the task) in a course of choice trials and conducted a task-fMRI study in human participants. The participants showed their individual risk preference when they had no quota constraint ('individual-preference mode'), while they adopted state-dependent optimal strategy when they needed to achieve a quota ('strategy-optimization mode'). fMRI analyses illustrated that the interplay among prefrontal areas and salience-network areas reflected the quota severity and the utilization of the optimal strategy, shedding light on the neural substrates of the quota-dependent risk attitude. Our results demonstrated the complex nature of risk-sensitive decision-making and may provide a new perspective for the understanding of problematic risky behaviors in human. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improving the decision-making process for nonprescription drugs: a framework for benefit-risk assessment.

PubMed

Brass, E P; Lofstedt, R; Renn, O

2011-12-01

Nonprescription drugs pose unique challenges to regulators. The fact that the barriers to access are lower for nonprescription drugs as compared with prescription drugs may permit additional consumers to obtain effective drugs. However, the use of these drugs by consumers in the absence of supervision by a health-care professional may result in unacceptable rates of misuse and suboptimal clinical outcomes. A value-tree method is proposed that defines important benefit and risk domains relevant to nonprescription drugs. This value tree can be used to comprehensively identify product-specific attributes in each domain and can also support formal benefit-risk assessment using a variety of tools. This is illustrated here, using a modification of the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) framework, a flexible tool previously applied in a number of fields, which systematizes an approach to issue review, early alignment of stakeholders, evaluation, and risk mitigation/management. The proposed approach has the potential to provide structured, transparent tools for regulatory decision making for nonprescription drugs.

Treatment Retention Among Patients Participating in Coordinated Specialty Care for First-Episode Psychosis: a Mixed-Methods Analysis.

PubMed

Hamilton, Jane E; Srivastava, Devika; Womack, Danica; Brown, Ashlie; Schulz, Brian; Macakanja, April; Walker, April; Wu, Mon-Ju; Williamson, Mark; Cho, Raymond Y

2018-06-05

Young adults experiencing first-episode psychosis have historically been difficult to retain in mental health treatment. Communities across the United States are implementing Coordinated Specialty Care to improve outcomes for individuals experiencing first-episode psychosis. This mixed-methods research study examined the relationship between program services and treatment retention, operationalized as the likelihood of remaining in the program for 9 months or more. In the adjusted analysis, male gender and participation in home-based cognitive behavioral therapy were associated with an increased likelihood of remaining in treatment. The key informant interview findings suggest the shared decision-making process and the breadth, flexibility, and focus on functional recovery of the home-based cognitive behavioral therapy intervention may have positively influenced treatment retention. These findings suggest the use of shared decision-making and improved access to home-based cognitive behavioral therapy for first-episode psychosis patients may improve outcomes for this vulnerable population.

Dynamic Creation of Social Networks for Syndromic Surveillance Using Information Fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holsopple, Jared; Yang, Shanchieh; Sudit, Moises; Stotz, Adam

To enhance the effectiveness of health care, many medical institutions have started transitioning to electronic health and medical records and sharing these records between institutions. The large amount of complex and diverse data makes it difficult to identify and track relationships and trends, such as disease outbreaks, from the data points. INFERD: Information Fusion Engine for Real-Time Decision-Making is an information fusion tool that dynamically correlates and tracks event progressions. This paper presents a methodology that utilizes the efficient and flexible structure of INFERD to create social networks representing progressions of disease outbreaks. Individual symptoms are treated as features allowing multiple hypothesis being tracked and analyzed for effective and comprehensive syndromic surveillance.

Data interoperability software solution for emergency reaction in the Europe Union

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, R.; Rubiera, E.; Sacristan, M.; Schütte, F.; Peters, R.

2014-09-01

Emergency management becomes more challenging in international crisis episodes because of cultural, semantic and linguistic differences between all stakeholders, especially first responders. Misunderstandings between first responders makes decision-making slower and more difficult. However, spread and development of networks and IT-based Emergency Management Systems (EMS) has improved emergency responses, becoming more coordinated. Despite improvements made in recent years, EMS have not still solved problems related to cultural, semantic and linguistic differences which are the real cause of slower decision-making. In addition, from a technical perspective, the consolidation of current EMS and the different formats used to exchange information offers another problem to be solved in any solution proposed for information interoperability between heterogeneous EMS surrounded by different contexts. To overcome these problems we present a software solution based on semantic and mediation technologies. EMERGency ELements (EMERGEL) (Fundacion CTIC and AntwortING Ingenieurbüro PartG 2013), a common and modular ontology shared by all the stakeholders, has been defined. It offers the best solution to gather all stakeholders' knowledge in a unique and flexible data model, taking into account different countries cultural linguistic issues. To deal with the diversity of data protocols and formats, we have designed a Service Oriented Architecture for Data Interoperability (named DISASTER) providing a flexible extensible solution to solve the mediation issues. Web Services have been adopted as specific technology to implement such paradigm that has the most significant academic and industrial visibility and attraction. Contributions of this work have been validated through the design and development of a cross-border realistic prototype scenario, actively involving both emergency managers and emergency first responders: the Netherlands-Germany border fire.

Data interoperability software solution for emergency reaction in the Europe Union

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, R.; Rubiera, E.; Sacristan, M.; Schütte, F.; Peters, R.

2015-07-01

Emergency management becomes more challenging in international crisis episodes because of cultural, semantic and linguistic differences between all stakeholders, especially first responders. Misunderstandings between first responders makes decision making slower and more difficult. However, spread and development of networks and IT-based emergency management systems (EMSs) have improved emergency responses, which have become more coordinated. Despite improvements made in recent years, EMSs have not still solved problems related to cultural, semantic and linguistic differences which are the real cause of slower decision making. In addition, from a technical perspective, the consolidation of current EMSs and the different formats used to exchange information offers another problem to be solved in any solution proposed for information interoperability between heterogeneous EMSs in different contexts. To overcome these problems, we present a software solution based on semantic and mediation technologies. EMERGency ELements (EMERGEL) (Fundacion CTIC and AntwortING Ingenieurbüro PartG, 2013), a common and modular ontology shared by all the stakeholders, has been defined. It offers the best solution to gather all stakeholders' knowledge in a unique and flexible data model, taking into account different countries' cultural and linguistic issues. To deal with the diversity of data protocols and formats, we have designed a service-oriented architecture for data interoperability (named DISASTER: Data Interoperability Solution At STakeholders Emergency Reaction) providing a flexible extensible solution to solve the mediation issues. Web services have been adopted as specific technology to implement this paradigm that has the most significant academic and industrial visibility and attraction. Contributions of this work have been validated through the design and development of a cross-border realistic prototype scenario, actively involving both emergency managers and emergency-first responders: the Netherlands-Germany border fire.

Impact of computer-based treatment planning software on clinical judgment of dental students for planning prosthodontic rehabilitation

PubMed Central

Deshpande, Saee; Chahande, Jayashree

2014-01-01

Purpose Successful prosthodontic rehabilitation involves making many interrelated clinical decisions which have an impact on each other. Self-directed computer-based training has been shown to be a very useful tool to develop synthetic and analytical problem-solving skills among students. Thus, a computer-based case study and treatment planning (CSTP) software program was developed which would allow students to work through the process of comprehensive, multidisciplinary treatment planning for patients in a structured and logical manner. The present study was aimed at assessing the effect of this CSTP software on the clinical judgment of dental students while planning prosthodontic rehabilitation and to assess the students’ perceptions about using the program for its intended use. Methods A CSTP software program was developed and validated. The impact of this program on the clinical decision making skills of dental graduates was evaluated by real life patient encounters, using a modified and validated mini-CEX. Students’ perceptions about the program were obtained by a pre-validated feedback questionnaire. Results The faculty assessment scores of clinical judgment improved significantly after the use of this program. The majority of students felt it was an informative, useful, and innovative way of learning and they strongly felt that they had learnt the logical progression of planning, the insight into decision making, and the need for flexibility in treatment planning after using this program. Conclusion CSTP software was well received by the students. There was significant improvement in students’ clinical judgment after using this program. It should thus be envisaged fundamentally as an adjunct to conventional teaching techniques to improve students’ decision making skills and confidence. PMID:25170288

Rigid patterns of effortful choice behavior after acute stress in rats.

PubMed

Hart, Evan E; Stolyarova, Alexandra; Conoscenti, Michael A; Minor, Thomas R; Izquierdo, Alicia

2017-01-01

Physical effort is a common cost of acquiring rewards, and decreased effort is a feature of many neuropsychiatric disorders. Stress affects performance on several tests of cognition and decision making in both humans and nonhumans. Only a few recent reports show impairing effects of stress in operant tasks involving effort and cognitive flexibility. Brain regions affected by stress, such as the medial prefrontal cortex and amygdala, are also implicated in mediating effortful choices. Here, we assessed effort-based decision making after an acute stress procedure known to induce persistent impairment in shuttle escape and elevated plasma corticosterone. In these animals, we also probed levels of polysialyted neural cell adhesion molecule (PSA-NCAM), a marker of structural plasticity, in medial frontal cortex and amygdala. We found that animals that consistently worked for high magnitude rewards continued to do so, even after acute shock stress. We also found that PSA-NCAM was increased in both regions after effortful choice experience but not after shock stress alone. These findings are discussed with reference to the existing broad literature on cognitive effects of stress and in the context of how acute stress may bias effortful decisions to a rigid pattern of responding.

Emergency material allocation with time-varying supply-demand based on dynamic optimization method for river chemical spills.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Wang, Peng

2018-04-13

Aiming to minimize the damage caused by river chemical spills, efficient emergency material allocation is critical for an actual emergency rescue decision-making in a quick response. In this study, an emergency material allocation framework based on time-varying supply-demand constraint is developed to allocate emergency material, minimize the emergency response time, and satisfy the dynamic emergency material requirements in post-accident phases dealing with river chemical spills. In this study, the theoretically critical emergency response time is firstly obtained for the emergency material allocation system to select a series of appropriate emergency material warehouses as potential supportive centers. Then, an enumeration method is applied to identify the practically critical emergency response time, the optimum emergency material allocation and replenishment scheme. Finally, the developed framework is applied to a computational experiment based on south-to-north water transfer project in China. The results illustrate that the proposed methodology is a simple and flexible tool for appropriately allocating emergency material to satisfy time-dynamic demands during emergency decision-making. Therefore, the decision-makers can identify an appropriate emergency material allocation scheme in a balance between time-effective and cost-effective objectives under the different emergency pollution conditions.

Key stakeholders' perceptions of the acceptability and usefulness of a tablet-based tool to improve communication and shared decision making in ICUs.

PubMed

Ernecoff, Natalie C; Witteman, Holly O; Chon, Kristen; Chen, Yanquan Iris; Buddadhumaruk, Praewpannarai; Chiarchiaro, Jared; Shotsberger, Kaitlin J; Shields, Anne-Marie; Myers, Brad A; Hough, Catherine L; Carson, Shannon S; Lo, Bernard; Matthay, Michael A; Anderson, Wendy G; Peterson, Michael W; Steingrub, Jay S; Arnold, Robert M; White, Douglas B

2016-06-01

Although barriers to shared decision making in intensive care units are well documented, there are currently no easily scaled interventions to overcome these problems. We sought to assess stakeholders' perceptions of the acceptability, usefulness, and design suggestions for a tablet-based tool to support communication and shared decision making in ICUs. We conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews with 58 key stakeholders (30 surrogates and 28 ICU care providers). Interviews explored stakeholders' perceptions about the acceptability of a tablet-based tool to support communication and shared decision making, including the usefulness of modules focused on orienting families to the ICU, educating them about the surrogate's role, completing a question prompt list, eliciting patient values, educating about treatment options, eliciting perceptions about prognosis, and providing psychosocial support resources. The interviewer also elicited stakeholders' design suggestions for such a tool. We used constant comparative methods to identify key themes that arose during the interviews. Overall, 95% (55/58) of participants perceived the proposed tool to be acceptable, with 98% (57/58) of interviewees finding six or more of the seven content domains acceptable. Stakeholders identified several potential benefits of the tool including that it would help families prepare for the surrogate role and for family meetings as well as give surrogates time and a framework to think about the patient's values and treatment options. Key design suggestions included: conceptualize the tool as a supplement to rather than a substitute for surrogate-clinician communication; make the tool flexible with respect to how, where, and when surrogates can access the tool; incorporate interactive exercises; use video and narration to minimize the cognitive load of the intervention; and build an extremely simple user interface to maximize usefulness for individuals with low computer literacy. There is broad support among stakeholders for the use of a tablet-based tool to improve communication and shared decision making in ICUs. Eliciting the perspectives of key stakeholders early in the design process yielded important insights to create a tool tailored to the needs of surrogates and care providers in ICUs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quality evaluation of portal sites in health system, as a tool for education and learning.

PubMed

Hejazi, Sayed Mehdi; Sarmadi, Sima

2013-01-01

The main objective of creating a portal is to make information service available for users who need them for performance of duties and responsibilities regardless of the sources. This article is attempted to consider the parameters that can evaluate these sites since these criteria can be effective in designing and implementing such portals. On the other hand, portal sites in health systems of every country make it possible for leaders, policy makers, and directors to system education as a tool for new learning technologies. One of the main decisions each manager has to make is precise selection of appropriate portal sites. This is a descriptive and qualitative study. The research sample was 53 computer professional working in the area of computer programming and design. In the first part of the study a questionnaire was send to the participants and in the second part of the study based on their response to the questionnaire the participant was interviewed and the main themes of the studies were formulated. The validity and the reliability of the questionnaire were confirmed. The study results were summarized in 10 themes and 50 sub-categories. The main themes included were portal requirements, security, management, and efficiency, user friendliness, built-in applications, portal flexibility, interoperability, and support systems. Portal sites in any education systems make it possible for health system leaders and policy makers to manage their organization information system efficiently and effectively. One of the major decisions each manager has to make is precise selection of an appropriate portal sites design and development. The themes and sub-categories of this study could help health system managers and policy makers and information technology professionals to make appropriate decisions regarding portal design and development.

Transient Cognitive Dynamics, Metastability, and Decision Making

PubMed Central

Rabinovich, Mikhail I.; Huerta, Ramón; Varona, Pablo; Afraimovich, Valentin S.

2008-01-01

The idea that cognitive activity can be understood using nonlinear dynamics has been intensively discussed at length for the last 15 years. One of the popular points of view is that metastable states play a key role in the execution of cognitive functions. Experimental and modeling studies suggest that most of these functions are the result of transient activity of large-scale brain networks in the presence of noise. Such transients may consist of a sequential switching between different metastable cognitive states. The main problem faced when using dynamical theory to describe transient cognitive processes is the fundamental contradiction between reproducibility and flexibility of transient behavior. In this paper, we propose a theoretical description of transient cognitive dynamics based on the interaction of functionally dependent metastable cognitive states. The mathematical image of such transient activity is a stable heteroclinic channel, i.e., a set of trajectories in the vicinity of a heteroclinic skeleton that consists of saddles and unstable separatrices that connect their surroundings. We suggest a basic mathematical model, a strongly dissipative dynamical system, and formulate the conditions for the robustness and reproducibility of cognitive transients that satisfy the competing requirements for stability and flexibility. Based on this approach, we describe here an effective solution for the problem of sequential decision making, represented as a fixed time game: a player takes sequential actions in a changing noisy environment so as to maximize a cumulative reward. As we predict and verify in computer simulations, noise plays an important role in optimizing the gain. PMID:18452000

Work or retirement: Exploration of the experiences of Iranian retired nurses.

PubMed

Nobahar, Monir; Ahmadi, Fazlollah; Alhani, Fatemah; Khoshknab, Masood Fallahi

2015-01-01

According to recent studies, the level of international interest in bridge employment, as return to work after retirement, has been growing. This study aimed to explore the experiences of retired nurses in Iran with regard to making a decision about whether or not to seek bridge employment. A qualitative study using a content analysis approach was conducted in an urban area of Iran. Semi-structured interviews were held with 20 Iranian male and female retired nurses chosen using purposive sampling. During the data analysis, two main themes were identified as the participants' thoughts supporting the decision of seeking bridge employment. The first theme was entitled motivational factors with categories of ``serving the society,'' ``maintaining and promoting health,'' ``tendency toward flexible work,'' and ``maintaining the role and activity.'' The second theme was entitled forcing factors with categories of ``ardent desire to work (pluralistic ignorance)'' and ``financial need.' ' While some Iranian retired nurses were not motivated to seek work for health reasons, most preferred to return to work after retirement. They were motivated to seek bridge employment out of a desire to serve the society, to promote their own physical and mental health, to continue to use their expertise and maintain the worker role, and because of financial needs and perceived societal expectations. Nurses seeking employment later in life tended to look for job flexibility and less stressful work. Therefore, the management of bridge employment by healthcare system authorities can be useful in making use of the invaluable experiences of retired nurses.

The Role of Frontal Cortical and Medial-Temporal Lobe Brain Areas in Learning a Bayesian Prior Belief on Reversals

PubMed Central

Jang, Anthony I.; Costa, Vincent D.; Rudebeck, Peter H.; Chudasama, Yogita; Murray, Elisabeth A.

2015-01-01

Reversal learning has been extensively studied across species as a task that indexes the ability to flexibly make and reverse deterministic stimulus–reward associations. Although various brain lesions have been found to affect performance on this task, the behavioral processes affected by these lesions have not yet been determined. This task includes at least two kinds of learning. First, subjects have to learn and reverse stimulus–reward associations in each block of trials. Second, subjects become more proficient at reversing choice preferences as they experience more reversals. We have developed a Bayesian approach to separately characterize these two learning processes. Reversal of choice behavior within each block is driven by a combination of evidence that a reversal has occurred, and a prior belief in reversals that evolves with experience across blocks. We applied the approach to behavior obtained from 89 macaques, comprising 12 lesion groups and a control group. We found that animals from all of the groups reversed more quickly as they experienced more reversals, and correspondingly they updated their prior beliefs about reversals at the same rate. However, the initial values of the priors that the various groups of animals brought to the task differed significantly, and it was these initial priors that led to the differences in behavior. Thus, by taking a Bayesian approach we find that variability in reversal-learning performance attributable to different neural systems is primarily driven by different prior beliefs about reversals that each group brings to the task. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The ability to use prior knowledge to adapt choice behavior is critical for flexible decision making. Reversal learning is often studied as a form of flexible decision making. However, prior studies have not identified which brain regions are important for the formation and use of prior beliefs to guide choice behavior. Here we develop a Bayesian approach that formally characterizes learning set as a concept, and we show that, in macaque monkeys, the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex have a role in establishing an initial belief about the stability of the reward environment. PMID:26290251

Federated health information architecture: Enabling healthcare providers and policymakers to use data for decision-making.

PubMed

Kumar, Manish; Mostafa, Javed; Ramaswamy, Rohit

2018-05-01

Health information systems (HIS) in India, as in most other developing countries, support public health management but fail to enable healthcare providers to use data for delivering quality services. Such a failure is surprising, given that the population healthcare data that the system collects are aggregated from patient records. An important reason for this failure is that the health information architecture (HIA) of the HIS is designed primarily to serve the information needs of policymakers and program managers. India has recognised the architectural gaps in its HIS and proposes to develop an integrated HIA. An enabling HIA that attempts to balance the autonomy of local systems with the requirements of a centralised monitoring agency could meet the diverse information needs of various stakeholders. Given the lack of in-country knowledge and experience in designing such an HIA, this case study was undertaken to analyse HIS in the Bihar state of India and to understand whether it would enable healthcare providers, program managers and policymakers to use data for decision-making. Based on a literature review and data collected from interviews with key informants, this article proposes a federated HIA, which has the potential to improve HIS efficiency; provide flexibility for local innovation; cater to the diverse information needs of healthcare providers, program managers and policymakers; and encourage data-based decision-making.

Sleep Deprivation Diminishes Attentional Control Effectiveness and Impairs Flexible Adaptation to Changing Conditions.

PubMed

Whitney, Paul; Hinson, John M; Satterfield, Brieann C; Grant, Devon A; Honn, Kimberly A; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2017-11-22

Insufficient sleep is a global public health problem resulting in catastrophic accidents, increased mortality, and hundreds of billions of dollars in lost productivity. Yet the effect of sleep deprivation (SD) on decision making and performance is often underestimated by fatigued individuals and is only beginning to be understood by scientists. The deleterious impact of SD is frequently attributed to lapses in vigilant attention, but this account fails to explain many SD-related problems, such as loss of situational awareness and perseveration. Using a laboratory study protocol, we show that SD individuals can maintain information in the focus of attention and anticipate likely correct responses, but their use of such a top-down attentional strategy is less effective at preventing errors caused by competing responses. Moreover, when the task environment requires flexibility, performance under SD suffers dramatically. The impairment in flexible shifting of attentional control we observed is distinct from lapses in vigilant attention, as corroborated by the specificity of the influence of a genetic biomarker, the dopaminergic polymorphism DRD2 C957T. Reduced effectiveness of top-down attentional control under SD, especially when conditions require flexibility, helps to explain maladaptive performance that is not readily explained by lapses in vigilant attention.

Do the disc degeneration and osteophyte contribute to the curve rigidity of degenerative scoliosis?

PubMed

Zhu, Feng; Bao, Hongda; Yan, Peng; Liu, Shunan; Bao, Mike; Zhu, Zezhang; Liu, Zhen; Qiu, Yong

2017-03-29

The factors associated with lateral curve flexibility in degenerative scoliosis have not been well documented. Disc degeneration could result in significant change in stiffness and range of motion in lateral bending films. The osteophytes could be commonly observed in degenerative spine but the relationship between osteophyte formation and curve flexibility remains controversial. The aim of the current study is to clarify if the disc degeneration and osteophyte formation were both associated with curve flexibility of degenerative scoliosis. A total of 85 patients were retrospectively analyzed. The inclusion criteria were as follow: age greater than 45 years, diagnosed as degenerative scoliosis and coronal Cobb angle greater than 20°. Curve flexibility was calculated based on Cobb angle, and range of motion (ROM) was based on disc angle evaluation. Regional disc degeneration score (RDS) was obtained according to Pfirrmann classification and osteophyte formation score (OFS) was based on Nanthan classification. Spearman correlation was performed to analyze the relationship between curve flexibility and RDS as well as OFS. Moderate correlation was found between RDS and curve flexibility with a Spearman coefficient of -0.487 (P = 0.009). Similarly, moderate correlation was observed between curve flexibility and OFS with a Spearman coefficient of -0.429 (P = 0.012). Strong correlation was found between apical ROM and OFS compared to the relationship between curve flexibility and OFS with a Spearman coefficient of -0.627 (P < 0.001). Both disc degeneration and osteophytes formation correlated with curve rigidity. The pre-operative evaluation of both features may aid in the surgical decision-making in degenerative scoliosis patients.

ESD practice through global approach -7-year practices of developing science lessen modules and fostering integrated decision making ability-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kajiyama, Kosei

2016-04-01

Hiroshima University High School (HUHS) has devised and carried out overseas exchange programs on ESD issues for 7 years. These programs have been carried out as a part of a government-aided project called SSH (Super Science High School) *1. To start with, we had cooperative study program with a school in Germany in 2009, and next year with a school in Korea, and then gradually have expanded the cooperative schools. Since 2013, we have worked with schools in four countries; Korea, Thailand, Czech and Germany. Science lesson modules here refers to an assembly of a set of lessons, newly developed and improved for the project. These modules characteristically require the students to make decisions by themselves on given problems. In the course of the decision making, students learn what kind of data or facts should be presented as evidence and how they can make their decisions known to others. Among several modules we have designed, the one introduced here deals with the use of solar energy, which we carried out with a school in Korea in 2014-2015. It also includes lessons of the fuel cells using energy from hydrogen gas generated by solar cells. It aims to develop global human resources through carefully planned activities. First, the students of both schools make mixed groups and conduct experiments in physics, chemistry or biology on a given problem related to solar energy. Then they discuss in groups using data obtained from the experiments and through the Internet as evidence. After the thorough discussion, each group gives a presentation on their decision. The analysis of the presentations and the questionnaire to the students revealed the following points: 1) Students have come to have multidimensional perspectives on the utilization of solar energy. 2) Students have come to combine the results of different experiments when making decisions. 3) Students have developed flexible attitudes toward other cultures. 4) Students have developed communication skills in English. *1 SSH: Since 2002, the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) have designated schools that focus their education on science and math as Super Science High Schools and our school has been designated as one of SSH schools since 2003

Employees' work responses to episodes of illness: evidence from the American time use survey.

PubMed

Gifford, Brian; Jinnett, Kimberly

2014-02-01

To better understand presenteeism and absenteeism on the basis of the choices employees make about working when they experience episodes of illness. We examine nationally representative data to describe employees' work responses to episodes of illness and how different leave policies contribute to their decisions. Illness episodes typically result in absence from work rather than working a normal or adjusted routine. Employees adjust their routine when ill primarily to save leave or because they have too much work. Paid sick leave and scheduling flexibility influence the likelihood of absence in different ways. Although flexibility to adjust work routines can reduce absences, it is not known to what extent productivity suffers when this occurs. Measures of both short- and long-term presenteeism are necessary to understand the full productivity costs of illness in the workforce.

Factors influencing antibiotic-prescribing decisions among inpatient physicians: a qualitative investigation

PubMed Central

Livorsi, D; Comer, AR; Matthias, MS; Perencevich, EN; Bair, MJ

2016-01-01

Objective To understand the professional and psychosocial factors that influence physicians' antibiotic-prescribing habits in the inpatient setting. Design We conducted semi-structured interviews with 30 inpatient physicians. Interviews consisted of open-ended questions and flexible probes based on participants' responses. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, de-identified, and reviewed for accuracy and completeness. Data were analyzed using emergent thematic analysis. Setting Two teaching hospitals in Indianapolis, IN Participants Thirty inpatient physicians (10 physicians-in-training, 20 supervising staff) Results Participants recognized that antibiotics are over-used, and many admitted to prescribing antibiotics even when the clinical evidence of infection was uncertain. Over-prescription was largely driven by anxiety about missing an infection while potential adverse effects of antibiotics did not strongly influence decision-making. Participants did not routinely disclose potential adverse effects of antibiotics to inpatients. Physicians-in-training were strongly influenced by the antibiotic prescribing behavior of their supervising staff physicians. Participants sometimes questioned their colleagues' antibiotic-prescribing decisions but frequently avoided providing direct feedback or critique, citing obstacles of hierarchy, infrequent face-to-face encounters, and the awkwardness of these conversations. Conclusion There is a physician-based culture of prescribing antibiotics, which involves over-using antibiotics and not challenging colleagues' decisions. The potential adverse effects of antibiotics do not strongly influence decision-making in this sample. A better understanding of these factors could be leveraged in future efforts to improve antibiotic-prescribing in the inpatient setting. PMID:26078017

Resonant Cholinergic Dynamics in Cognitive and Motor Decision-Making: Attention, Category Learning, and Choice in Neocortex, Superior Colliculus, and Optic Tectum.

PubMed

Grossberg, Stephen; Palma, Jesse; Versace, Massimiliano

2015-01-01

Freely behaving organisms need to rapidly calibrate their perceptual, cognitive, and motor decisions based on continuously changing environmental conditions. These plastic changes include sharpening or broadening of cognitive and motor attention and learning to match the behavioral demands that are imposed by changing environmental statistics. This article proposes that a shared circuit design for such flexible decision-making is used in specific cognitive and motor circuits, and that both types of circuits use acetylcholine to modulate choice selectivity. Such task-sensitive control is proposed to control thalamocortical choice of the critical features that are cognitively attended and that are incorporated through learning into prototypes of visual recognition categories. A cholinergically-modulated process of vigilance control determines if a recognition category and its attended features are abstract (low vigilance) or concrete (high vigilance). Homologous neural mechanisms of cholinergic modulation are proposed to focus attention and learn a multimodal map within the deeper layers of superior colliculus. This map enables visual, auditory, and planned movement commands to compete for attention, leading to selection of a winning position that controls where the next saccadic eye movement will go. Such map learning may be viewed as a kind of attentive motor category learning. The article hereby explicates a link between attention, learning, and cholinergic modulation during decision making within both cognitive and motor systems. Homologs between the mammalian superior colliculus and the avian optic tectum lead to predictions about how multimodal map learning may occur in the mammalian and avian brain and how such learning may be modulated by acetycholine.

Resonant Cholinergic Dynamics in Cognitive and Motor Decision-Making: Attention, Category Learning, and Choice in Neocortex, Superior Colliculus, and Optic Tectum

PubMed Central

Grossberg, Stephen; Palma, Jesse; Versace, Massimiliano

2016-01-01

Freely behaving organisms need to rapidly calibrate their perceptual, cognitive, and motor decisions based on continuously changing environmental conditions. These plastic changes include sharpening or broadening of cognitive and motor attention and learning to match the behavioral demands that are imposed by changing environmental statistics. This article proposes that a shared circuit design for such flexible decision-making is used in specific cognitive and motor circuits, and that both types of circuits use acetylcholine to modulate choice selectivity. Such task-sensitive control is proposed to control thalamocortical choice of the critical features that are cognitively attended and that are incorporated through learning into prototypes of visual recognition categories. A cholinergically-modulated process of vigilance control determines if a recognition category and its attended features are abstract (low vigilance) or concrete (high vigilance). Homologous neural mechanisms of cholinergic modulation are proposed to focus attention and learn a multimodal map within the deeper layers of superior colliculus. This map enables visual, auditory, and planned movement commands to compete for attention, leading to selection of a winning position that controls where the next saccadic eye movement will go. Such map learning may be viewed as a kind of attentive motor category learning. The article hereby explicates a link between attention, learning, and cholinergic modulation during decision making within both cognitive and motor systems. Homologs between the mammalian superior colliculus and the avian optic tectum lead to predictions about how multimodal map learning may occur in the mammalian and avian brain and how such learning may be modulated by acetycholine. PMID:26834535

The Evolution of System Safety at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Everett, Chris; Groen, Frank

2014-01-01

The NASA system safety framework is in the process of change, motivated by the desire to promote an objectives-driven approach to system safety that explicitly focuses system safety efforts on system-level safety performance, and serves to unify, in a purposeful manner, safety-related activities that otherwise might be done in a way that results in gaps, redundancies, or unnecessary work. An objectives-driven approach to system safety affords more flexibility to determine, on a system-specific basis, the means by which adequate safety is achieved and verified. Such flexibility and efficiency is becoming increasingly important in the face of evolving engineering modalities and acquisition models, where, for example, NASA will increasingly rely on commercial providers for transportation services to low-earth orbit. A key element of this objectives-driven approach is the use of the risk-informed safety case (RISC): a structured argument, supported by a body of evidence, that provides a compelling, comprehensible and valid case that a system is or will be adequately safe for a given application in a given environment. The RISC addresses each of the objectives defined for the system, providing a rational basis for making informed risk acceptance decisions at relevant decision points in the system life cycle.

Improving management of small natural features on private lands by negotiating the science-policy boundary for Maine vernal pools.

PubMed

Calhoun, Aram J K; Jansujwicz, Jessica S; Bell, Kathleen P; Hunter, Malcolm L

2014-07-29

Vernal pools are far more important for providing ecosystem services than one would predict based on their small size. However, prevailing resource-management strategies are not effectively conserving pools and other small natural features on private lands. Solutions are complicated by tensions between private property and societal rights, uncertainties over resource location and function, diverse stakeholders, and fragmented regulatory authority. The development and testing of new conservation approaches that link scientific knowledge, stakeholder decision-making, and conservation outcomes are important responses to this conservation dilemma. Drawing from a 15-y history of vernal pool conservation efforts in Maine, we describe the coevolution of pool conservation and research approaches, focusing on how research-based knowledge was produced and used in support of management decisions. As management shifted from reactive, top-down approaches to proactive and flexible approaches, research shifted from an ecology-focused program to an interdisciplinary program based on social-ecological systems. The most effective strategies for linking scientific knowledge with action changed as the decision-makers, knowledge needs, and context for vernal pool management advanced. Interactions among stakeholders increased the extent to which knowledge was coproduced and shifted the objective of stakeholder engagement from outreach to research collaboration and development of innovative conservation approaches. New conservation strategies were possible because of the flexible, solutions-oriented collaborations and trust between scientists and decision-makers (fostered over 15 y) and interdisciplinary, engaged research. Solutions to the dilemma of conserving small natural features on private lands, and analogous sustainability science challenges, will benefit from repeated negotiations of the science-policy boundary.

Valuing Flexibility in Career Training Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yahanpath, Noel; Neal, Mark; McCormack, Shane

2013-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the nature and significance of flexibility in decisions about education and training options. This is done through an examination of the relevance of real options valuation (ROV) to our understanding of educational and training choices. Through this examination, the paper aims to contribute to the…

Interdisciplinary team care of cleft lip and palate: social and psychological aspects.

PubMed

Strauss, R P; Broder, H

1985-10-01

The organizational example of a university-based team and two patient case studies illustrate how team interaction affects decision making. The model presented for effective team organization is an egalitarian one. Interdependency, flexibility, and open communication among members are essential. Cleft lip and palate teams provide evaluation and treatment that include input from a variety of professional disciplines. The team context makes it possible for care to be coordinated and alleviates the fragmentation of seeking treatment from several independent specialists. Teams also have a special opportunity to address the complex social and psychological issues prevalent in treating persons with birth defects. Specialists, like psychologists and social workers, identify these issues so that surgeons, dentists, and other clinicians may provide a comprehensive treatment plan and management approach. If psychologists or social workers are not available to a team, the group may still successfully integrate a variety of social and personal factors into their decision making. Examples of problem areas and of issues that may be associated with difficulties in adjusting to cleft therapy are included in this article. Teams that effectively address the psychosocial needs of their patients will enhance patient satisfaction, cooperation, and treatment outcomes.

Information processing in decision-making systems.

PubMed

van der Meer, Matthijs; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Redish, A David

2012-08-01

Decisions result from an interaction between multiple functional systems acting in parallel to process information in very different ways, each with strengths and weaknesses. In this review, the authors address three action-selection components of decision-making: The Pavlovian system releases an action from a limited repertoire of potential actions, such as approaching learned stimuli. Like the Pavlovian system, the habit system is computationally fast but, unlike the Pavlovian system permits arbitrary stimulus-action pairings. These associations are a "forward'' mechanism; when a situation is recognized, the action is released. In contrast, the deliberative system is flexible but takes time to process. The deliberative system uses knowledge of the causal structure of the world to search into the future, planning actions to maximize expected rewards. Deliberation depends on the ability to imagine future possibilities, including novel situations, and it allows decisions to be taken without having previously experienced the options. Various anatomical structures have been identified that carry out the information processing of each of these systems: hippocampus constitutes a map of the world that can be used for searching/imagining the future; dorsal striatal neurons represent situation-action associations; and ventral striatum maintains value representations for all three systems. Each system presents vulnerabilities to pathologies that can manifest as psychiatric disorders. Understanding these systems and their relation to neuroanatomy opens up a deeper way to treat the structural problems underlying various disorders.

Information Processing in Decision-Making Systems

PubMed Central

van der Meer, Matthijs; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Redish, A. David

2015-01-01

Decisions result from an interaction between multiple functional systems acting in parallel to process information in very different ways, each with strengths and weaknesses. In this review, the authors address three action-selection components of decision-making: The Pavlovian system releases an action from a limited repertoire of potential actions, such as approaching learned stimuli. Like the Pavlovian system, the habit system is computationally fast but, unlike the Pavlovian system permits arbitrary stimulus-action pairings. These associations are a “forward” mechanism; when a situation is recognized, the action is released. In contrast, the deliberative system is flexible but takes time to process. The deliberative system uses knowledge of the causal structure of the world to search into the future, planning actions to maximize expected rewards. Deliberation depends on the ability to imagine future possibilities, including novel situations, and it allows decisions to be taken without having previously experienced the options. Various anatomical structures have been identified that carry out the information processing of each of these systems: hippocampus constitutes a map of the world that can be used for searching/imagining the future; dorsal striatal neurons represent situation-action associations; and ventral striatum maintains value representations for all three systems. Each system presents vulnerabilities to pathologies that can manifest as psychiatric disorders. Understanding these systems and their relation to neuroanatomy opens up a deeper way to treat the structural problems underlying various disorders. PMID:22492194

Data to Decisions: Creating a Culture of Model-Driven Drug Discovery.

PubMed

Brown, Frank K; Kopti, Farida; Chang, Charlie Zhenyu; Johnson, Scott A; Glick, Meir; Waller, Chris L

2017-09-01

Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA, is undergoing a transformation in the way that it prosecutes R&D programs. Through the adoption of a "model-driven" culture, enhanced R&D productivity is anticipated, both in the form of decreased attrition at each stage of the process and by providing a rational framework for understanding and learning from the data generated along the way. This new approach focuses on the concept of a "Design Cycle" that makes use of all the data possible, internally and externally, to drive decision-making. These data can take the form of bioactivity, 3D structures, genomics, pathway, PK/PD, safety data, etc. Synthesis of high-quality data into models utilizing both well-established and cutting-edge methods has been shown to yield high confidence predictions to prioritize decision-making and efficiently reposition resources within R&D. The goal is to design an adaptive research operating plan that uses both modeled data and experiments, rather than just testing, to drive project decision-making. To support this emerging culture, an ambitious information management (IT) program has been initiated to implement a harmonized platform to facilitate the construction of cross-domain workflows to enable data-driven decision-making and the construction and validation of predictive models. These goals are achieved through depositing model-ready data, agile persona-driven access to data, a unified cross-domain predictive model lifecycle management platform, and support for flexible scientist-developed workflows that simplify data manipulation and consume model services. The end-to-end nature of the platform, in turn, not only supports but also drives the culture change by enabling scientists to apply predictive sciences throughout their work and over the lifetime of a project. This shift in mindset for both scientists and IT was driven by an early impactful demonstration of the potential benefits of the platform, in which expert-level early discovery predictive models were made available from familiar desktop tools, such as ChemDraw. This was built using a workflow-driven service-oriented architecture (SOA) on top of the rigorous registration of all underlying model entities.

Improving health information systems for decision making across five sub-Saharan African countries: Implementation strategies from the African Health Initiative.

PubMed

Mutale, Wilbroad; Chintu, Namwinga; Amoroso, Cheryl; Awoonor-Williams, Koku; Phillips, James; Baynes, Colin; Michel, Cathy; Taylor, Angela; Sherr, Kenneth

2013-01-01

Weak health information systems (HIS) are a critical challenge to reaching the health-related Millennium Development Goals because health systems performance cannot be adequately assessed or monitored where HIS data are incomplete, inaccurate, or untimely. The Population Health Implementation and Training (PHIT) Partnerships were established in five sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia) to catalyze advances in strengthening district health systems. Interventions were tailored to the setting in which activities were planned. All five PHIT Partnerships share a common feature in their goal of enhancing HIS and linking data with improved decision-making, specific strategies varied. Mozambique, Ghana, and Tanzania all focus on improving the quality and use of the existing Ministry of Health HIS, while the Zambia and Rwanda partnerships have introduced new information and communication technology systems or tools. All partnerships have adopted a flexible, iterative approach in designing and refining the development of new tools and approaches for HIS enhancement (such as routine data quality audits and automated troubleshooting), as well as improving decision making through timely feedback on health system performance (such as through summary data dashboards or routine data review meetings). The most striking differences between partnership approaches can be found in the level of emphasis of data collection (patient versus health facility), and consequently the level of decision making enhancement (community, facility, district, or provincial leadership). Design differences across PHIT Partnerships reflect differing theories of change, particularly regarding what information is needed, who will use the information to affect change, and how this change is expected to manifest. The iterative process of data use to monitor and assess the health system has been heavily communication dependent, with challenges due to poor feedback loops. Implementation to date has highlighted the importance of engaging frontline staff and managers in improving data collection and its use for informing system improvement. Through rigorous process and impact evaluation, the experience of the PHIT teams hope to contribute to the evidence base in the areas of HIS strengthening, linking HIS with decision making, and its impact on measures of health system outputs and impact.

Improving health information systems for decision making across five sub-Saharan African countries: Implementation strategies from the African Health Initiative

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Weak health information systems (HIS) are a critical challenge to reaching the health-related Millennium Development Goals because health systems performance cannot be adequately assessed or monitored where HIS data are incomplete, inaccurate, or untimely. The Population Health Implementation and Training (PHIT) Partnerships were established in five sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia) to catalyze advances in strengthening district health systems. Interventions were tailored to the setting in which activities were planned. Comparisons across strategies All five PHIT Partnerships share a common feature in their goal of enhancing HIS and linking data with improved decision-making, specific strategies varied. Mozambique, Ghana, and Tanzania all focus on improving the quality and use of the existing Ministry of Health HIS, while the Zambia and Rwanda partnerships have introduced new information and communication technology systems or tools. All partnerships have adopted a flexible, iterative approach in designing and refining the development of new tools and approaches for HIS enhancement (such as routine data quality audits and automated troubleshooting), as well as improving decision making through timely feedback on health system performance (such as through summary data dashboards or routine data review meetings). The most striking differences between partnership approaches can be found in the level of emphasis of data collection (patient versus health facility), and consequently the level of decision making enhancement (community, facility, district, or provincial leadership). Discussion Design differences across PHIT Partnerships reflect differing theories of change, particularly regarding what information is needed, who will use the information to affect change, and how this change is expected to manifest. The iterative process of data use to monitor and assess the health system has been heavily communication dependent, with challenges due to poor feedback loops. Implementation to date has highlighted the importance of engaging frontline staff and managers in improving data collection and its use for informing system improvement. Through rigorous process and impact evaluation, the experience of the PHIT teams hope to contribute to the evidence base in the areas of HIS strengthening, linking HIS with decision making, and its impact on measures of health system outputs and impact. PMID:23819699

Decision making, central coherence and set-shifting: a comparison between Binge Eating Disorder, Anorexia Nervosa and Healthy Controls.

PubMed

Aloi, Matteo; Rania, Marianna; Caroleo, Mariarita; Bruni, Antonella; Palmieri, Antonella; Cauteruccio, Maria Antonella; De Fazio, Pasquale; Segura-García, Cristina

2015-01-24

Several studies have investigated the cognitive profile in patients with Anorexia Nervosa (AN) and Bulimia Nervosa (BN); on the contrary few studies have evaluated it in patients with Binge Eating Disorder (BED). The purpose of this study was to compare decision making, central coherence and set-shifting between BED and AN patients. A battery of neuropsychological tests including the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), the Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure Test (RCFT), the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST), the Trial Making Task (TMT) and the Hayling Sentence Completion Task (HSCT) were administered in a sample of 135 women (45 AN, 45 BED, 45 Healthy Controls [HC]). Furthermore, Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) was administered to evaluate depressive symptoms. Years of education, age, Body Mass Index (BMI) and depression severity were considered as covariates in statistical analyses. BED and AN patients showed high rates of cognitive impairment compared to HC on the domains investigated; furthermore, the cognitive profile of BED patients was characterised by poorer decision making and cognitive flexibility compared to patients with AN. Cognitive performance was strongly associated with depressive symptoms. In the present sample, two different neurocognitive profiles emerged: a strong cognitive rigidity and a central coherence based on the details was predominant in patients with AN, while a lack of attention and difficulty in adapting to changes in a new situation seemed to better describe patients with BED. The knowledge of the different cognitive profiles of EDs patients may be important for the planning their psychotherapeutic intervention.

Culture, intangibles and metrics in environmental management.

PubMed

Satterfield, Terre; Gregory, Robin; Klain, Sarah; Roberts, Mere; Chan, Kai M

2013-03-15

The demand for better representation of cultural considerations in environmental management is increasingly evident. As two cases in point, ecosystem service approaches increasingly include cultural services, and resource planners recognize indigenous constituents and the cultural knowledge they hold as key to good environmental management. Accordingly, collaborations between anthropologists, planners, decision makers and biodiversity experts about the subject of culture are increasingly common-but also commonly fraught. Those whose expertise is culture often engage in such collaborations because they worry a practitioner from 'elsewhere' will employ a 'measure of culture' that is poorly or naively conceived. Those from an economic or biophysical training must grapple with the intangible properties of culture as they intersect with economic, biological or other material measures. This paper seeks to assist those who engage in collaborations to characterize cultural benefits or impacts relevant to decision-making in three ways; by: (i) considering the likely mindset of would-be collaborators; (ii) providing examples of tested approaches that might enable innovation; and (iii) characterizing the kinds of obstacles that are in principle solvable through methodological alternatives. We accomplish these tasks in part by examining three cases wherein culture was a critical variable in environmental decision making: risk management in New Zealand associated with Māori concerns about genetically modified organisms; cultural services to assist marine planning in coastal British Columbia; and a decision-making process involving a local First Nation about water flows in a regulated river in western Canada. We examine how 'culture' came to be manifest in each case, drawing from ethnographic and cultural-models interviews and using subjective metrics (recommended by theories of judgment and decision making) to express cultural concerns. We conclude that the characterization of cultural benefits and impacts is least amenable to methodological solution when prevailing cultural worldviews contain elements fundamentally at odds with efforts to quantify benefits/impacts, but that even in such cases some improvements are achievable if decision-makers are flexible regarding processes for consultation with community members and how quantification is structured. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Robust Decision-Making Technique for Water Management under Decadal Scale Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callihan, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2013-12-01

Robust decision making, a flexible and dynamic approach to managing water resources in light of deep uncertainties associated with climate variability at inter-annual to decadal time scales, is an analytical framework that detects when a system is in or approaching a vulnerable state. It provides decision makers the opportunity to implement strategies that both address the vulnerabilities and perform well over a wide range of plausible future scenarios. A strategy that performs acceptably over a wide range of possible future states is not likely to be optimal with respect to the actual future state. The degree of success--the ability to avoid vulnerable states and operate efficiently--thus depends on the skill in projecting future states and the ability to select the most efficient strategies to address vulnerabilities. This research develops a robust decision making framework that incorporates new methods of decadal scale projections with selection of efficient strategies. Previous approaches to water resources planning under inter-annual climate variability combining skillful seasonal flow forecasts with climatology for subsequent years are not skillful for medium term (i.e. decadal scale) projections as decision makers are not able to plan adequately to avoid vulnerabilities. We address this need by integrating skillful decadal scale streamflow projections into the robust decision making framework and making the probability distribution of this projection available to the decision making logic. The range of possible future hydrologic scenarios can be defined using a variety of nonparametric methods. Once defined, an ensemble projection of decadal flow scenarios are generated from a wavelet-based spectral K-nearest-neighbor resampling approach using historical and paleo-reconstructed data. This method has been shown to generate skillful medium term projections with a rich variety of natural variability. The current state of the system in combination with the probability distribution of the projected flow ensembles enables the selection of appropriate decision options. This process is repeated for each year of the planning horizon--resulting in system outcomes that can be evaluated on their performance and resiliency. The research utilizes the RiverSMART suite of software modeling and analysis tools developed under the Bureau of Reclamation's WaterSMART initiative and built around the RiverWare modeling environment. A case study is developed for the Gunnison and Upper Colorado River Basins. The ability to mitigate vulnerability using the framework is gauged by system performance indicators that measure the ability of the system to meet various water demands (i.e. agriculture, environmental flows, hydropower etc.). Options and strategies for addressing vulnerabilities include measures such as conservation, reallocation and adjustments to operational policy. In addition to being able to mitigate vulnerabilities, options and strategies are evaluated based on benefits, costs and reliability. Flow ensembles are also simulated to incorporate mean and variance from climate change projections for the planning horizon and the above robust decision-making framework is applied to evaluate its performance under changing climate.

Flexible versus common technology to estimate economies of scale and scope in the water and sewerage industry: an application to England and Wales.

PubMed

Molinos-Senante, María; Maziotis, Alexandros

2018-05-01

The water industry presents several structures in different countries and also within countries. Hence, several studies have been conducted to evaluate the presence of economies of scope and scale in the water industry leading to inconclusive results. The lack of a common methodology has been identified as an important factor contributing to divergent conclusions. This paper evaluates, for the first time, the presence of economies of scale and scope in the water industry using a flexible technology approach integrating operational and exogenous variables of the water companies in the cost functions. The empirical application carried out for the English and Welsh water industry evidenced that the inclusion of exogenous variables accounts for significant differences in economies of scale and scope. Moreover, completely different results were obtained when the economies of scale and scope were estimated using common and flexible technology methodological approaches. The findings of this study reveal the importance of using an appropriate methodology to support policy decision-making processes to promote sustainable urban water activities.

Jumping to Conclusions, a Lack of Belief Flexibility and Delusional Conviction in Psychosis

PubMed Central

So, Suzanne H.; Freeman, Daniel; Dunn, Graham; Kapur, Shitij; Kuipers, Elizabeth; Bebbington, Paul; Fowler, David; Garety, Philippa A.

2012-01-01

Two reasoning biases, jumping to conclusions (JTC) and belief inflexibility, have been found to be associated with delusions. We examined these biases and their relationship with delusional conviction in a longitudinal cohort of people with schizophrenia-spectrum psychosis. We hypothesized that JTC, lack of belief flexibility, and delusional conviction would form distinct factors, and that JTC and lack of belief flexibility would predict less change in delusional conviction over time. Two hundred seventy-three patients with delusions were assessed over twelve months of a treatment trial (Garety et al., 2008). Forty-one percent of the sample had 100% conviction in their delusions, 50% showed a JTC bias, and 50%–75% showed a lack of belief flexibility. Delusional conviction, JTC, and belief flexibility formed distinct factors although conviction was negatively correlated with belief flexibility. Conviction declined slightly over the year in this established psychosis group, whereas the reasoning biases were stable. There was little evidence that reasoning predicted the slight decline in conviction. The degree to which people believe their delusions, their ability to think that they may be mistaken and to consider alternative explanations, and their hastiness in decision making are three distinct processes although belief flexibility and conviction are related. In this established psychosis sample, reasoning biases changed little in response to medication or psychological therapy. Required now is examination of these processes in psychosis groups where there is greater change in delusion conviction, as well as tests of the effects on delusions when these reasoning biases are specifically targeted. PMID:21910515

Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kraucunas, Ian P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dirks, James A.

2015-04-01

The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization.more » Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.« less

Minimizing the regrets of long-term urban floodplain management decisions under deeply uncertain climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, J. S.; Kirshen, P. H.; Vogel, R. M.

2016-12-01

Making long-term floodplain management decisions under uncertain climate change is a major urban planning challenge of the 21stcentury. To support these efforts, we introduce a screening-level optimization model that identifies adaptation portfolios by minimizing the regrets associated with their flood-control and damage costs under different climate change trajectories that are deeply uncertain, i.e. have probabilities that cannot be specified plausibly. This mixed integer program explicitly considers the coupled damage-reduction impacts of different floodwall designs and property-scale investments (first-floor elevation, wet floodproofing of basements, permanent retreat and insurance), recommends implementation schedules, and assesses impacts to stakeholders residing in three types of homes. An application to a stylized municipality illuminates many nonlinear system dynamics stemming from large fixed capital costs, infrastructure design thresholds, and discharge-depth-damage relationships. If stakeholders tolerate mild damage, floodwalls that fully protect a community from large design events are less cost-effective than portfolios featuring both smaller floodwalls and property-scale measures. Potential losses of property tax revenue from permanent retreat motivate municipal property-tax initiatives for adaptation financing. Yet, insurance incentives for first-floor elevation may discourage locally financed floodwalls, in turn making lower-income residents more vulnerable to severe flooding. A budget constraint analysis underscores the benefits of flexible floodwall designs with low incremental expansion costs while near-optimal solutions demonstrate the scheduling flexibility of many property-scale measures. Finally, an equity analysis shows the importance of evaluating the overpayment and under-design regrets of recommended adaptation portfolios for each stakeholder and contrasts them to single-scenario model results.

Identification of design features to enhance utilization and acceptance of systems for Internet-based decision support at the point of care.

PubMed

Gadd, C S; Baskaran, P; Lobach, D F

1998-01-01

Extensive utilization of point-of-care decision support systems will be largely dependent on the development of user interaction capabilities that make them effective clinical tools in patient care settings. This research identified critical design features of point-of-care decision support systems that are preferred by physicians, through a multi-method formative evaluation of an evolving prototype of an Internet-based clinical decision support system. Clinicians used four versions of the system--each highlighting a different functionality. Surveys and qualitative evaluation methodologies assessed clinicians' perceptions regarding system usability and usefulness. Our analyses identified features that improve perceived usability, such as telegraphic representations of guideline-related information, facile navigation, and a forgiving, flexible interface. Users also preferred features that enhance usefulness and motivate use, such as an encounter documentation tool and the availability of physician instruction and patient education materials. In addition to identifying design features that are relevant to efforts to develop clinical systems for point-of-care decision support, this study demonstrates the value of combining quantitative and qualitative methods of formative evaluation with an iterative system development strategy to implement new information technology in complex clinical settings.

Exploring the impact of walk–bike infrastructure, safety perception, and built-environment on active transportation mode choice: a random parameter model using New York City commuter data

DOE PAGES

Aziz, H. M. Abdul; Nagle, Nicholas N.; Morton, April M.; ...

2017-02-06

Here, this study finds the effects of traffic safety, walk-bike network facilities, and land use attributes on walk and bicycle mode choice decision in the New York City for home-to-work commute. Applying the flexible econometric structure of random parameter models, we capture the heterogeneity in the decision making process and simulate scenarios considering improvement in walk-bike infrastructure such as sidewalk width and length of bike lane. Our results indicate that increasing sidewalk width, total length of bike lane, and proportion of protected bike lane will increase the likelihood of more people taking active transportation mode This suggests that the localmore » authorities and planning agencies to invest more on building and maintaining the infrastructure for pedestrians. Furthermore, improvement in traffic safety by reducing traffic crashes involving pedestrians and bicyclists will increase the likelihood of taking active transportation modes. Our results also show positive correlation between number of non-motorized trips by the other family members and the likelihood to choose active transportation mode. The findings will help to make smart investment decisions in context of building sustainable transportation systems accounting for active transportation.« less

Exploring the impact of walk–bike infrastructure, safety perception, and built-environment on active transportation mode choice: a random parameter model using New York City commuter data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aziz, H. M. Abdul; Nagle, Nicholas N.; Morton, April M.

Here, this study finds the effects of traffic safety, walk-bike network facilities, and land use attributes on walk and bicycle mode choice decision in the New York City for home-to-work commute. Applying the flexible econometric structure of random parameter models, we capture the heterogeneity in the decision making process and simulate scenarios considering improvement in walk-bike infrastructure such as sidewalk width and length of bike lane. Our results indicate that increasing sidewalk width, total length of bike lane, and proportion of protected bike lane will increase the likelihood of more people taking active transportation mode This suggests that the localmore » authorities and planning agencies to invest more on building and maintaining the infrastructure for pedestrians. Furthermore, improvement in traffic safety by reducing traffic crashes involving pedestrians and bicyclists will increase the likelihood of taking active transportation modes. Our results also show positive correlation between number of non-motorized trips by the other family members and the likelihood to choose active transportation mode. The findings will help to make smart investment decisions in context of building sustainable transportation systems accounting for active transportation.« less

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, and computational exposure assessment, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the computationally enabled “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) conceptmore » in the toxicological sciences. The AEP framework offers an intuitive approach to successful organization of exposure science data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathway and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum and setting the stage for more efficient integration of exposure science and toxicity testing information. Together these frameworks form and inform a decision making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based or exposure-based decisions.« less

Research on Power System Scheduling Improving Wind Power Accommodation Considering Thermal Energy Storage and Flexible Load

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Chenlu; Cui, Xue; Wang, Heng; Zhou, Bin; Liu, Yang

2018-01-01

In the case of rapid development of wind power and heavy wind curtailment, the study of wind power accommodation of combined heat and power system has become the focus of attention. A two-stage scheduling model contains of wind power, thermal energy storage, CHP unit and flexible load were constructed. This model with the objective function of minimizing wind curtailment and the operation cost of units while taking into account of the total coal consumption of units, constraint of thermal energy storage and electricity-heat characteristic of CHP. This paper uses MICA to solve the problem of too many constraints and make the solution more feasible. A numerical example showed that the two stage decision scheduling model can consume more wind power, and it could provide a reference for combined heat and power system short-term operation

A framework for service enterprise workflow simulation with multi-agents cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Wenan; Xu, Wei; Yang, Fujun; Xu, Lida; Jiang, Chuanqun

2013-11-01

Process dynamic modelling for service business is the key technique for Service-Oriented information systems and service business management, and the workflow model of business processes is the core part of service systems. Service business workflow simulation is the prevalent approach to be used for analysis of service business process dynamically. Generic method for service business workflow simulation is based on the discrete event queuing theory, which is lack of flexibility and scalability. In this paper, we propose a service workflow-oriented framework for the process simulation of service businesses using multi-agent cooperation to address the above issues. Social rationality of agent is introduced into the proposed framework. Adopting rationality as one social factor for decision-making strategies, a flexible scheduling for activity instances has been implemented. A system prototype has been developed to validate the proposed simulation framework through a business case study.

Saltman on solidarity.

PubMed

Brown, Lawrence D; Chinitz, David P

2015-01-01

Richard Saltman suggests that solidarity, a cherished notion at the heart of West European health care systems is being reconsidered in the light of today's austere economic conditions. Solidarity, he argues, has always been a flexible moral guideline, one that allows for policy responses, such as limitations on health benefits or increased out of pocket payments, that challenging fiscal conditions are said to demand. Here we consider what the basic elements in solidarity - universality, redistribution, and uniformity-- mean in health as compared to other social policy realms such as pensions. Traditionally, the commitment to solidarity said little about the contents of services, but the latter is perhaps subject to increasing scrutiny under the health policy microscope. Saltman is right to emphasize the conceptual and cross-national flexibility of solidarity, but the notion retains a solid and durable core that continues to give valuable direction to policymakers in search of acceptable strategies and structures for decision making.

Toward sensor modular autonomy for persistent land intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Paul A.; Marshall, Gillian; Faulkner, David; Kent, Philip; Page, Scott; Islip, Simon; Oldfield, James; Breckon, Toby P.; Kundegorski, Mikolaj E.; Clark, David J.; Styles, Tim

2016-05-01

Currently, most land Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) assets (e.g. EO/IR cameras) are simply data collectors. Understanding, decision making and sensor control are performed by the human operators, involving high cognitive load. Any automation in the system has traditionally involved bespoke design of centralised systems that are highly specific for the assets/targets/environment under consideration, resulting in complex, non-flexible systems that exhibit poor interoperability. We address a concept of Autonomous Sensor Modules (ASMs) for land ISR, where these modules have the ability to make low-level decisions on their own in order to fulfil a higher-level objective, and plug in, with the minimum of preconfiguration, to a High Level Decision Making Module (HLDMM) through a middleware integration layer. The dual requisites of autonomy and interoperability create challenges around information fusion and asset management in an autonomous hierarchical system, which are addressed in this work. This paper presents the results of a demonstration system, known as Sensing for Asset Protection with Integrated Electronic Networked Technology (SAPIENT), which was shown in realistic base protection scenarios with live sensors and targets. The SAPIENT system performed sensor cueing, intelligent fusion, sensor tasking, target hand-off and compensation for compromised sensors, without human control, and enabled rapid integration of ISR assets at the time of system deployment, rather than at design-time. Potential benefits include rapid interoperability for coalition operations, situation understanding with low operator cognitive burden and autonomous sensor management in heterogenous sensor systems.

Grey fuzzy optimization model for water quality management of a river system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmakar, Subhankar; Mujumdar, P. P.

2006-07-01

A grey fuzzy optimization model is developed for water quality management of river system to address uncertainty involved in fixing the membership functions for different goals of Pollution Control Agency (PCA) and dischargers. The present model, Grey Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (GFWLAM), has the capability to incorporate the conflicting goals of PCA and dischargers in a deterministic framework. The imprecision associated with specifying the water quality criteria and fractional removal levels are modeled in a fuzzy mathematical framework. To address the imprecision in fixing the lower and upper bounds of membership functions, the membership functions themselves are treated as fuzzy in the model and the membership parameters are expressed as interval grey numbers, a closed and bounded interval with known lower and upper bounds but unknown distribution information. The model provides flexibility for PCA and dischargers to specify their aspirations independently, as the membership parameters for different membership functions, specified for different imprecise goals are interval grey numbers in place of a deterministic real number. In the final solution optimal fractional removal levels of the pollutants are obtained in the form of interval grey numbers. This enhances the flexibility and applicability in decision-making, as the decision-maker gets a range of optimal solutions for fixing the final decision scheme considering technical and economic feasibility of the pollutant treatment levels. Application of the GFWLAM is illustrated with case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in India.

A dynamic code for economic object valuation in prefrontal cortex neurons

PubMed Central

Tsutsui, Ken-Ichiro; Grabenhorst, Fabian; Kobayashi, Shunsuke; Schultz, Wolfram

2016-01-01

Neuronal reward valuations provide the physiological basis for economic behaviour. Yet, how such valuations are converted to economic decisions remains unclear. Here we show that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) implements a flexible value code based on object-specific valuations by single neurons. As monkeys perform a reward-based foraging task, individual DLPFC neurons signal the value of specific choice objects derived from recent experience. These neuronal object values satisfy principles of competitive choice mechanisms, track performance fluctuations and follow predictions of a classical behavioural model (Herrnstein’s matching law). Individual neurons dynamically encode both, the updating of object values from recently experienced rewards, and their subsequent conversion to object choices during decision-making. Decoding from unselected populations enables a read-out of motivational and decision variables not emphasized by individual neurons. These findings suggest a dynamic single-neuron and population value code in DLPFC that advances from reward experiences to economic object values and future choices. PMID:27618960

Real Option in Capital Budgeting for SMEs: Insight from Steel Company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muharam, F. M.; Tarrazon, M. A.

2017-06-01

Complex components of investment projects can only be analysed accurately if flexibility and comprehensive consideration of uncertainty are incorporated into valuation. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis has failed to cope with strategic future alternatives that affect the right value of investment projects. Real option valuation (ROV) proves to be the right tool for this purpose since it enables to calculate the enlarged or strategic Net Present Value (ENPV). This study attempts to provide an insight of the usage of ROV in capital budgeting and investment decision-making processes of SMEs. Exploring into the first stage processing of steel industry, analysis of alternatives to cancel, to expand, to defer or to abandon is performed. Completed with multiple options interaction and a sensitivity analysis, our findings prove that the application of ROV is beneficial for complex investment projects independently from the size of the company and particularly suitable in scenarios with scarce resources. The application of Real Option Valuation (ROV) is plausible and beneficial for SMEs to be incorporated in the strategic decision making process.

A Framework for Ethical Decision Making in the Rehabilitation of Patients with Anosognosia.

PubMed

Egbert, Anna Rita

2017-01-01

Currently, the number of patients diagnosed with impaired self-awareness of their own deficits after brain injury-anosognosia-is increasing. One reason is a growing understanding of this multifaceted phenomenon. Another is the development and accessibility of alternative measurements that allow more detailed diagnoses. Anosognosia can adversely affect successful rehabilitation, as often patients lack confidence in the need for treatment. Planning such treatment can become a complex process full of ethical dilemmas. To date, there is no systematic way to deal with different aspects of anosognosia rehabilitation planning. This is the first article to present a framework for ethical decision making in establishing rehabilitation plans that are focused on increasing patients' self-awareness of their own deficits after brain injury. It concentrates especially on addressing the ethical dilemmas that may arise, and describes stepwise procedures that can be applied to distinct theoretical approaches, as well as diagnostic and rehabilitation methods. To show the flexibility of the use of this framework, alternative approaches are discussed. Copyright 2016 The Journal of Clinical Ethics. All rights reserved.

Yearning, learning, and conceding: reasons men and women change their childbearing intentions.

PubMed

Iacovou, Maria; Tavares, Lara Patrício

2011-01-01

People's childbearing intentions change over the course of their reproductive lives. These changes have been conceptualized as occurring in response to the realization that an individual is unlikely to achieve his or her intended fertility, because of constraints such as the "biological clock" or lack of a partner. In this article, we find that changes to child-bearing plans are influenced by a much wider range of factors than this. People change their plans in response to the wishes of their partners, in response to social norms, as the result of repartnering, and as the result of learning about the costs and benefits of parenthood; there are also differences between the factors that influence men's and women's decision-making. In a departure from existing studies in this area, we use a flexible analytical framework that enables us to analyze increases in planned fertility separately from decreases. This allows us to uncover several complexities of the decision-making process that would otherwise be hidden, and leads us to conclude that the determinants of increases in planned fertility are not simply equal and opposite to the determinants of decreases.

Creating a 21st-century intelligent health system.

PubMed

Newt, Gingrich; Nancy, Desmond

2008-02-01

In most areas of life, Americans enjoy the ease and convenience offered by advances in technology, communications, and transportation. Every day we experience the 21st-century model of America, which is one of effectiveness, accuracy, speed, flexibility, efficiency, lower cost, more choices, and greater achievement. We can shop online, compare prices for goods and services, and when decisions need to be made, we have access to a wide array of information sources to assist in making those decisions. In short, Americans enjoy great latitude in our power to determine what is best for us. This is not, however, the case when it comes to health and healthcare. In our current healthcare system, individuals are dependent on a structure that has resisted the natural progress and modernization achieved by market-oriented, 21st-century industries. The information age has been leaving health behind. Although it is the nature of a science- and technology-based entrepreneurial free market to provide more choices of higher quality at lower cost, in the healthcare sector, prices continue to rise, quality is inconsistent, and individuals lack the information, incentives, and power to make choices.

The Real Time Mission Monitor: A Situational Awareness Tool For Managing Experiment Assets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blakeslee, Richard; Hall, John; Goodman, Michael; Parker, Philip; Freudinger, Larry; He, Matt

2007-01-01

The NASA Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a situational awareness tool that integrates satellite, airborne and surface data sets; weather information; model and forecast outputs; and vehicle state data (e.g., aircraft navigation, satellite tracks and instrument field-of-views) for field experiment management RTMM optimizes science and logistic decision-making during field experiments by presenting timely data and graphics to the users to improve real time situational awareness of the experiment's assets. The RTMM is proven in the field as it supported program managers, scientists, and aircraft personnel during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses experiment during summer 2006 in Cape Verde, Africa. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible through data acquisition systems, network communication links and network server resources built and managed by collaborators at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) and Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). RTMM is evolving towards a more flexible and dynamic combination of sensor ingest, network computing, and decision-making activities through the use of a service oriented architecture based on community standards and protocols.

Neural correlates of cognitive control in gambling disorder: a systematic review of fMRI studies.

PubMed

Moccia, Lorenzo; Pettorruso, Mauro; De Crescenzo, Franco; De Risio, Luisa; di Nuzzo, Luigi; Martinotti, Giovanni; Bifone, Angelo; Janiri, Luigi; Di Nicola, Marco

2017-07-01

Decreased cognitive control over the urge to be involved in gambling activities is a core feature of Gambling Disorder (GD). Cognitive control can be differentiated into several cognitive sub-processes pivotal in GD clinical phenomenology, such as response inhibition, conflict monitoring, decision-making, and cognitive flexibility. This article aims to systematically review fMRI studies, which investigated the neural mechanisms underlying diminished cognitive control in GD. We conducted a comprehensive literature search and collected neuropsychological and neuroimaging data investigating cognitive control in GD. We included a total of 14 studies comprising 499 individuals. Our results indicate that impaired activity in prefrontal cortex may account for decreased cognitive control in GD, contributing to the progressive loss of control over gambling urges. Among prefrontal regions, orbital and ventromedial areas seem to be a possible nexus for sensory integration, value-based decision-making and emotional processing, thus contributing to both motivational and affective aspects of cognitive control. Finally, we discussed possible therapeutic approaches aimed at the restoration of cognitive control in GD, including pharmacological and brain stimulation treatments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A case of the birth and death of a high reliability healthcare organisation.

PubMed

Roberts, K H; Madsen, P; Desai, V; Van Stralen, D

2005-06-01

High reliability organisations (HROs) are those in which errors rarely occur. To accomplish this they conduct relatively error free operations over long periods of time and make consistently good decisions resulting in high quality and reliability. Some organisational processes that characterise HROs are process auditing, implementing appropriate reward systems, avoiding quality degradation, appropriately perceiving that risk exists and developing strategies to deal with it, and command and control. Command and control processes include migrating decision making, redundancy in people or hardware, developing situational awareness, formal rules and procedures, and training. These processes must be tailored to the specific organisation implementing them. These processes were applied to a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) where care was derived from problem solving methodology rather than protocol. After a leadership change, the unit returned to the hierarchical medical model of care. Important outcome variables such as infant mortality, patient return to the PICU after discharge, days on the PICU, air transports, degraded. Implications for clinical practice include providing caregivers with sufficient flexibility to meet changing situations, encouraging teamwork, and avoiding shaming, naming, and blaming.

Portfolio Analysis Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Tim; Zapata, Edgar; Benjamin, Perakath; Graul, Mike; Jones, Doug

2005-01-01

Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT) is a Web-based, client/server computer program that helps managers of multiple projects funded by different customers to make decisions regarding investments in those projects. PAT facilitates analysis on a macroscopic level, without distraction by parochial concerns or tactical details of individual projects, so that managers decisions can reflect the broad strategy of their organization. PAT is accessible via almost any Web-browser software. Experts in specific projects can contribute to a broad database that managers can use in analyzing the costs and benefits of all projects, but do not have access for modifying criteria for analyzing projects: access for modifying criteria is limited to managers according to levels of administrative privilege. PAT affords flexibility for modifying criteria for particular "focus areas" so as to enable standardization of criteria among similar projects, thereby making it possible to improve assessments without need to rewrite computer code or to rehire experts, and thereby further reducing the cost of maintaining and upgrading computer code. Information in the PAT database and results of PAT analyses can be incorporated into a variety of ready-made or customizable tabular or graphical displays.

High-Frequency Binaural Beats Increase Cognitive Flexibility: Evidence from Dual-Task Crosstalk.

PubMed

Hommel, Bernhard; Sellaro, Roberta; Fischer, Rico; Borg, Saskia; Colzato, Lorenza S

2016-01-01

Increasing evidence suggests that cognitive-control processes can be configured to optimize either persistence of information processing (by amplifying competition between decision-making alternatives and top-down biasing of this competition) or flexibility (by dampening competition and biasing). We investigated whether high-frequency binaural beats, an auditory illusion suspected to act as a cognitive enhancer, have an impact on cognitive-control configuration. We hypothesized that binaural beats in the gamma range bias the cognitive-control style toward flexibility, which in turn should increase the crosstalk between tasks in a dual-task paradigm. We replicated earlier findings that the reaction time in the first-performed task is sensitive to the compatibility between the responses in the first and the second task-an indication of crosstalk. As predicted, exposing participants to binaural beats in the gamma range increased this effect as compared to a control condition in which participants were exposed to a continuous tone of 340 Hz. These findings provide converging evidence that the cognitive-control style can be systematically biased by inducing particular internal states; that high-frequency binaural beats bias the control style toward more flexibility; and that different styles are implemented by changing the strength of local competition and top-down bias.

High-Frequency Binaural Beats Increase Cognitive Flexibility: Evidence from Dual-Task Crosstalk

PubMed Central

Hommel, Bernhard; Sellaro, Roberta; Fischer, Rico; Borg, Saskia; Colzato, Lorenza S.

2016-01-01

Increasing evidence suggests that cognitive-control processes can be configured to optimize either persistence of information processing (by amplifying competition between decision-making alternatives and top-down biasing of this competition) or flexibility (by dampening competition and biasing). We investigated whether high-frequency binaural beats, an auditory illusion suspected to act as a cognitive enhancer, have an impact on cognitive-control configuration. We hypothesized that binaural beats in the gamma range bias the cognitive-control style toward flexibility, which in turn should increase the crosstalk between tasks in a dual-task paradigm. We replicated earlier findings that the reaction time in the first-performed task is sensitive to the compatibility between the responses in the first and the second task—an indication of crosstalk. As predicted, exposing participants to binaural beats in the gamma range increased this effect as compared to a control condition in which participants were exposed to a continuous tone of 340 Hz. These findings provide converging evidence that the cognitive-control style can be systematically biased by inducing particular internal states; that high-frequency binaural beats bias the control style toward more flexibility; and that different styles are implemented by changing the strength of local competition and top-down bias. PMID:27605922

A flexible framework for process-based hydraulic and water ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background Models that allow for design considerations of green infrastructure (GI) practices to control stormwater runoff and associated contaminants have received considerable attention in recent years. While popular, generally, the GI models are relatively simplistic. However, GI model predictions are being relied upon by many municipalities and State/Local agencies to make decisions about grey vs. green infrastructure improvement planning. Adding complexity to GI modeling frameworks may preclude their use in simpler urban planning situations. Therefore, the goal here was to develop a sophisticated, yet flexible tool that could be used by design engineers and researchers to capture and explore the effect of design factors and properties of the media used in the performance of GI systems at a relatively small scale. We deemed it essential to have a flexible GI modeling tool that is capable of simulating GI system components and specific biophysical processes affecting contaminants such as reactions, and particle-associated transport accurately while maintaining a high degree of flexibly to account for the myriad of GI alternatives. The mathematical framework for a stand-alone GI performance assessment tool has been developed and will be demonstrated.Framework Features The process-based model framework developed here can be used to model a diverse range of GI practices such as green roof, retention pond, bioretention, infiltration trench, permeable pavement and

Improving the cost-effectiveness of IRS with climate informed health surveillance systems

PubMed Central

Worrall, Eve; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

2008-01-01

Background This paper examines how the cost-effectiveness of IRS varies depending on the severity of transmission and level of programme coverage and how efficiency could be improved by incorporating climate information into decision making for malaria control programmes as part of an integrated Malaria Early Warning and Response System (MEWS). Methods A climate driven model of malaria transmission was used to simulate cost-effectiveness of alternative IRS coverage levels over six epidemic and non-epidemic years. Decision rules for a potential MEWS system that triggers different IRS coverage are described. The average and marginal cost per case averted with baseline IRS coverage (24%) and under varying IRS coverage levels (50%, 75% and 100%) were calculated. Results Average cost-effectiveness of 24% coverage varies dramatically between years, from US$108 per case prevented in low transmission to US$0.42 in epidemic years. Similarly for higher coverage (24–100%) cost per case prevented is far higher in low than high transmission years ($108–$267 to $0.88–$2.26). Discussion Efficiency and health benefit gains could be achieved by implementing MEWS that provides timely, accurate information. Evidence from southern Africa, (especially Botswana) supports this. Conclusion Advance knowledge of transmission severity can help managers make coverage decisions which optimise resource use and exploit efficiency gains if a fully integrated MEWS is in place alongside a health system with sufficient flexibility to modify control plans in response to information. More countries and programmes should be supported to use the best available evidence and science to integrate climate informed MEWS into decision making within malaria control programmes. PMID:19108723

Qualitative Interviews Exploring Palliative Care Perspectives of Latinos on Dialysis.

PubMed

Cervantes, Lilia; Jones, Jacqueline; Linas, Stuart; Fischer, Stacy

2017-05-08

Compared with non-Latino whites with advanced illness, Latinos are less likely to have an advance directive or to die with hospice services. To improve palliative care disparities, international ESRD guidelines call for increased research on culturally responsive communication of advance care planning (ACP). The objective of our study was to explore the preferences of Latino patients receiving dialysis regarding symptom management and ACP. Qualitative study design using semistructured face-to-face interviews of 20 Latinos on hemodialysis between February and July of 2015. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Four themes were identified: Avoiding harms of medication (fear of addiction and damage to bodies, effective distractions, reliance on traditional remedies, fatalism: the sense that one's illness is deserved punishment); barriers and facilitators to ACP: faith, family, and home (family group decision-making, family reluctance to have ACP conversations, flexible decision-making conversations at home with family, ACP conversations incorporating trust and linguistic congruency, family-first and faith-driven decisions); enhancing wellbeing day-to-day (supportive relationships, improved understanding of illness leads to adherence, recognizing new self-value, maintaining a positive outlook); and distressing aspects of living with their illness (dietary restriction is culturally isolating and challenging for families, logistic challenges and socioeconomic disadvantage compounded by health literacy and language barriers, required rapid adjustments to chronic illness, demanding dialysis schedule). Latinos described unique cultural preferences such as avoidance of medications for symptom alleviation and a preference to have family group decision-making and ACP conversations at home. Understanding and integrating cultural values and preferences into palliative care offers the potential to improve disparities and achieve quality patient-centered care for Latinos with advanced illness. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Qualitative Interviews Exploring Palliative Care Perspectives of Latinos on Dialysis

PubMed Central

Jones, Jacqueline; Linas, Stuart; Fischer, Stacy

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Compared with non-Latino whites with advanced illness, Latinos are less likely to have an advance directive or to die with hospice services. To improve palliative care disparities, international ESRD guidelines call for increased research on culturally responsive communication of advance care planning (ACP). The objective of our study was to explore the preferences of Latino patients receiving dialysis regarding symptom management and ACP. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Qualitative study design using semistructured face-to-face interviews of 20 Latinos on hemodialysis between February and July of 2015. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Results Four themes were identified: Avoiding harms of medication (fear of addiction and damage to bodies, effective distractions, reliance on traditional remedies, fatalism: the sense that one’s illness is deserved punishment); barriers and facilitators to ACP: faith, family, and home (family group decision-making, family reluctance to have ACP conversations, flexible decision-making conversations at home with family, ACP conversations incorporating trust and linguistic congruency, family-first and faith-driven decisions); enhancing wellbeing day-to-day (supportive relationships, improved understanding of illness leads to adherence, recognizing new self-value, maintaining a positive outlook); and distressing aspects of living with their illness (dietary restriction is culturally isolating and challenging for families, logistic challenges and socioeconomic disadvantage compounded by health literacy and language barriers, required rapid adjustments to chronic illness, demanding dialysis schedule). Conclusions Latinos described unique cultural preferences such as avoidance of medications for symptom alleviation and a preference to have family group decision-making and ACP conversations at home. Understanding and integrating cultural values and preferences into palliative care offers the potential to improve disparities and achieve quality patient-centered care for Latinos with advanced illness. PMID:28404600

Improving management of small natural features on private lands by negotiating the science–policy boundary for Maine vernal pools

PubMed Central

Calhoun, Aram J. K.; Jansujwicz, Jessica S.; Bell, Kathleen P.; Hunter, Malcolm L.

2014-01-01

Vernal pools are far more important for providing ecosystem services than one would predict based on their small size. However, prevailing resource-management strategies are not effectively conserving pools and other small natural features on private lands. Solutions are complicated by tensions between private property and societal rights, uncertainties over resource location and function, diverse stakeholders, and fragmented regulatory authority. The development and testing of new conservation approaches that link scientific knowledge, stakeholder decision-making, and conservation outcomes are important responses to this conservation dilemma. Drawing from a 15-y history of vernal pool conservation efforts in Maine, we describe the coevolution of pool conservation and research approaches, focusing on how research-based knowledge was produced and used in support of management decisions. As management shifted from reactive, top-down approaches to proactive and flexible approaches, research shifted from an ecology-focused program to an interdisciplinary program based on social–ecological systems. The most effective strategies for linking scientific knowledge with action changed as the decision-makers, knowledge needs, and context for vernal pool management advanced. Interactions among stakeholders increased the extent to which knowledge was coproduced and shifted the objective of stakeholder engagement from outreach to research collaboration and development of innovative conservation approaches. New conservation strategies were possible because of the flexible, solutions-oriented collaborations and trust between scientists and decision-makers (fostered over 15 y) and interdisciplinary, engaged research. Solutions to the dilemma of conserving small natural features on private lands, and analogous sustainability science challenges, will benefit from repeated negotiations of the science–policy boundary. PMID:25002496

A prospective multiple case study of the impact of emerging scientific evidence on established colorectal cancer screening programs: a study protocol.

PubMed

Geddie, Hannah; Dobrow, Mark J; Hoch, Jeffrey S; Rabeneck, Linda

2012-06-01

Health-policy decision making is a complex and dynamic process, for which strong evidentiary support is required. This includes scientifically produced research, as well as information that relates to the context in which the decision takes place. Unlike scientific evidence, this "contextual evidence" is highly variable and often includes information that is not scientifically produced, drawn from sources such as political judgement, program management experience and knowledge, or public values. As the policy decision-making process is variable and difficult to evaluate, it is often unclear how this heterogeneous evidence is identified and incorporated into "evidence-based policy" decisions. Population-based colorectal cancer screening poses an ideal context in which to examine these issues. In Canada, colorectal cancer screening programs have been established in several provinces over the past five years, based on the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) or the fecal immunochemical test. However, as these programs develop, new scientific evidence for screening continues to emerge. Recently published randomized controlled trials suggest that the use of flexible sigmoidoscopy for population-based screening may pose a greater reduction in mortality than the FOBT. This raises the important question of how policy makers will address this evidence, given that screening programs are being established or are already in place. This study will examine these issues prospectively and will focus on how policy makers monitor emerging scientific evidence and how both scientific and contextual evidence are identified and applied for decisions about health system improvement. This study will employ a prospective multiple case study design, involving participants from Ontario, Alberta, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, and Quebec. In each province, data will be collected via document analysis and key informant interviews. Documents will include policy briefs, reports, meeting minutes, media releases, and correspondence. Interviews will be conducted in person with senior administrative leaders, government officials, screening experts, and high-level cancer system stakeholders. The proposed study comprises the third and final phase of an Emerging Team grant to address the challenges of health-policy decision making and colorectal cancer screening decisions in Canada. This study will contribute a unique prospective look at how policy makers address new, emerging scientific evidence in several different policy environments and at different stages of program planning and implementation. Findings will provide important insight into the various approaches that are or should be used to monitor emerging evidence, the relative importance of scientific versus contextual evidence for decision making, and the tools and processes that may be important to support challenging health-policy decisions.

A Semantic Approach with Decision Support for Safety Service in Smart Home Management

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Zhu, Xiaomin; Chen, Shaoli

2016-01-01

Research on smart homes (SHs) has increased significantly in recent years because of the convenience provided by having an assisted living environment. The functions of SHs as mentioned in previous studies, particularly safety services, are seldom discussed or mentioned. Thus, this study proposes a semantic approach with decision support for safety service in SH management. The focus of this contribution is to explore a context awareness and reasoning approach for risk recognition in SH that enables the proper decision support for flexible safety service provision. The framework of SH based on a wireless sensor network is described from the perspective of neighbourhood management. This approach is based on the integration of semantic knowledge in which a reasoner can make decisions about risk recognition and safety service. We present a management ontology for a SH and relevant monitoring contextual information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment and is service-oriented. We also propose a rule-based reasoning method to provide decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. A system prototype is developed to evaluate the feasibility, time response and extendibility of the approach. The evaluation of our approach shows that it is more effective in daily risk event recognition. The decisions for service provision are shown to be accurate. PMID:27527170

A Semantic Approach with Decision Support for Safety Service in Smart Home Management.

PubMed

Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Zhu, Xiaomin; Chen, Shaoli

2016-08-03

Research on smart homes (SHs) has increased significantly in recent years because of the convenience provided by having an assisted living environment. The functions of SHs as mentioned in previous studies, particularly safety services, are seldom discussed or mentioned. Thus, this study proposes a semantic approach with decision support for safety service in SH management. The focus of this contribution is to explore a context awareness and reasoning approach for risk recognition in SH that enables the proper decision support for flexible safety service provision. The framework of SH based on a wireless sensor network is described from the perspective of neighbourhood management. This approach is based on the integration of semantic knowledge in which a reasoner can make decisions about risk recognition and safety service. We present a management ontology for a SH and relevant monitoring contextual information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment and is service-oriented. We also propose a rule-based reasoning method to provide decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. A system prototype is developed to evaluate the feasibility, time response and extendibility of the approach. The evaluation of our approach shows that it is more effective in daily risk event recognition. The decisions for service provision are shown to be accurate.

Two-Stage Fracturing Wastewater Management in Shale Gas Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Sun, Alexander Y.; Duncan, Ian J.

Here, management of shale gas wastewater treatment, disposal, and reuse has become a significant environmental challenge, driven by an ongoing boom in development of U.S. shale gas reservoirs. Systems-analysis based decision support is helpful for effective management of wastewater, and provision of cost-effective decision alternatives from a whole-system perspective. Uncertainties are inherent in many modeling parameters, affecting the generated decisions. In order to effectively deal with the recourse issue in decision making, in this work a two-stage stochastic fracturing wastewater management model, named TSWM, is developed to provide decision support for wastewater management planning in shale plays. Using the TSWMmore » model, probabilistic and nonprobabilistic uncertainties are effectively handled. The TSWM model provides flexibility in generating shale gas wastewater management strategies, in which the first-stage decision predefined by decision makers before uncertainties are unfolded is corrected in the second stage to achieve the whole-system’s optimality. Application of the TSWM model to a comprehensive synthetic example demonstrates its practical applicability and feasibility. Optimal results are generated for allowable wastewater quantities, excess wastewater, and capacity expansions of hazardous wastewater treatment plants to achieve the minimized total system cost. The obtained interval solutions encompass both optimistic and conservative decisions. Trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives are made depending on decision makers’ knowledge and judgment, as well as site-specific information. In conclusion, the proposed model is helpful in forming informed decisions for wastewater management associated with shale gas development.« less

Two-Stage Fracturing Wastewater Management in Shale Gas Development

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Xiaodong; Sun, Alexander Y.; Duncan, Ian J.; ...

2017-01-19

Here, management of shale gas wastewater treatment, disposal, and reuse has become a significant environmental challenge, driven by an ongoing boom in development of U.S. shale gas reservoirs. Systems-analysis based decision support is helpful for effective management of wastewater, and provision of cost-effective decision alternatives from a whole-system perspective. Uncertainties are inherent in many modeling parameters, affecting the generated decisions. In order to effectively deal with the recourse issue in decision making, in this work a two-stage stochastic fracturing wastewater management model, named TSWM, is developed to provide decision support for wastewater management planning in shale plays. Using the TSWMmore » model, probabilistic and nonprobabilistic uncertainties are effectively handled. The TSWM model provides flexibility in generating shale gas wastewater management strategies, in which the first-stage decision predefined by decision makers before uncertainties are unfolded is corrected in the second stage to achieve the whole-system’s optimality. Application of the TSWM model to a comprehensive synthetic example demonstrates its practical applicability and feasibility. Optimal results are generated for allowable wastewater quantities, excess wastewater, and capacity expansions of hazardous wastewater treatment plants to achieve the minimized total system cost. The obtained interval solutions encompass both optimistic and conservative decisions. Trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives are made depending on decision makers’ knowledge and judgment, as well as site-specific information. In conclusion, the proposed model is helpful in forming informed decisions for wastewater management associated with shale gas development.« less

2007 Precision Strike Annual Programs Review

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-25

Adapting our methods • Remaining a flexible combined-arms force • Enabling a generation of combat- experienced decision-makers by distributing...Sustain Propulsion Network RadioMEMS IMU Flexible Engagement Options Requirements Capabilities Precision Attack Missile (PAM) 67” (with Canister...Aimpoint 6 PAM Seeker Modes PAM’s Multiple Targeting Modes Increase Flexibility , Improve Lethality PAM’s Multiple Targeting Modes Increase Flexibility

Refining Inquiry with Multi-Form Assessment: Formative and summative assessment functions for flexible inquiry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuiker, Steven; Reid Whitaker, J.

2014-04-01

This paper describes the 5E+I/A inquiry model and reports a case study of one curricular enactment by a US fifth-grade classroom. A literature review establishes the model's conceptual adequacy with respect to longstanding research related to both the 5E inquiry model and multiple, incremental innovations of it. As a collective line of research, the review highlights a common emphasis on formative assessment, at times coupled either with differentiated instruction strategies or with activities that target the generalization of learning. The 5E+I/A model contributes a multi-level assessment strategy that balances formative and summative functions of multiple forms of assessment in order to support classroom participation while still attending to individual achievement. The case report documents the enactment of a weeklong 5E+I/A curricular design as a preliminary account of the model's empirical adequacy. A descriptive and analytical narrative illustrates variable ways that multi-level assessment makes student thinking visible and pedagogical decision-making more powerful. In light of both, it also documents productive adaptations to a flexible curricular design and considers future research to advance this collective line of inquiry.

The influence of non-clinical patient factors on medical oncologists' decisions to recommend breast cancer adjuvant chemotherapy.

PubMed

Pini, T May; Hawley, Sarah T; Li, Yun; Katz, Steven J; Griggs, Jennifer J

2012-07-01

The extent to which medical oncologists consider non-clinical patient factors when deciding to recommend adjuvant chemotherapy is unknown. Medical oncologists who treated a population-based sample of early stage breast cancer patients reported to the Los Angeles and Detroit Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries 2005-2007 were asked how strongly they consider a patient's ability to follow instructions, level of social support, and level of work support/flexibility in decisions to recommend adjuvant chemotherapy. Responses of 4 (Quite strongly) or 5 (Very strongly) on a five-point Likert scale defined strong consideration. Associations between oncologist/practice characteristics and strong consideration of each non-clinical factor were examined. 134 oncologists (66 %) reported strong consideration of one or more factor. Ability to follow instructions was strongly considered by 120 oncologists (59 %), social support by 78 (38 %), and work support/flexibility by 73 (36 %). Larger percent of practice devoted to breast cancer was associated with lower likelihood of strongly considering ability to follow instructions [odds ratio (OR) 0.98, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.97-0.99; P = 0.04]. Increased years in practice was associated with lower likelihood of strongly considering social support (OR 0.96, CI 0.93-0.99; P = 0.011), while non-white race (OR 2.1, CI 1.03-4.26; P = 0.041) and tumor board access (OR 2.04, CI 1.01-4.12; P = 0.048) were associated with higher likelihood. Non-white race was associated with strongly considering work support/flexibility (OR 2.44, CI 1.21-4.92; P = 0.013). Tumor board access (OR 2, CI 1.00-4.02; P = 0.051) was borderline significant. Non-clinical patient factors play a role in medical oncologist decision-making for breast cancer adjuvant chemotherapy recommendations.

Health care reform and professionalism.

PubMed

Wennberg, J E

1994-01-01

With its emphasis on consumer choice of health plans, the current health care debate neglects a more fundamental crisis: changes in the traditional physician-patient relationship. This paper discusses how this relationship is being redefined and what it means for professionals in the future, particularly in the context of managed competition. The paper asserts that the final health reform plan must address flaws in the scientific and ethical basis of clinical practice. It calls for a flexible workforce policy that promotes shared decision making, lifetime learning, professional commitment to improved quality of care, a national evaluation program, and organizations to coordinate these efforts.

Habitual control of goal selection in humans

PubMed Central

Cushman, Fiery; Morris, Adam

2015-01-01

Humans choose actions based on both habit and planning. Habitual control is computationally frugal but adapts slowly to novel circumstances, whereas planning is computationally expensive but can adapt swiftly. Current research emphasizes the competition between habits and plans for behavioral control, yet many complex tasks instead favor their integration. We consider a hierarchical architecture that exploits the computational efficiency of habitual control to select goals while preserving the flexibility of planning to achieve those goals. We formalize this mechanism in a reinforcement learning setting, illustrate its costs and benefits, and experimentally demonstrate its spontaneous application in a sequential decision-making task. PMID:26460050

Ethical Grand Rounds: Teaching Ethics at the Point of Care.

PubMed

Airth-Kindree, Norah M M; Kirkhorn, Lee-Ellen C

2016-01-01

We offer an educational innovation called Ethical Grand Rounds (EGR) as a teaching strategy to enhance ethical decision-making. Nursing students participate in EGR-flexible ethical laboratories, where they take stands on ethical dilemmas, arguing for--or against--an ethical principle. This process provides the opportunity to move past normative ethics, that is, an ideal ethical stance in accord with ethical conduct codes, to applied ethics, what professional nurses would do in actual clinical practice, given the constraints that exist in contemporary care settings. EGR serves as a vehicle to translate "what ought to be" into "what is."

A robotic approach to understanding the role and the mechanism of vicarious trial-and-error in a T-maze task.

PubMed

Matsuda, Eiko; Hubert, Julien; Ikegami, Takashi

2014-01-01

Vicarious trial-and-error (VTE) is a behavior observed in rat experiments that seems to suggest self-conflict. This behavior is seen mainly when the rats are uncertain about making a decision. The presence of VTE is regarded as an indicator of a deliberative decision-making process, that is, searching, predicting, and evaluating outcomes. This process is slower than automated decision-making processes, such as reflex or habituation, but it allows for flexible and ongoing control of behavior. In this study, we propose for the first time a robotic model of VTE to see if VTE can emerge just from a body-environment interaction and to show the underlying mechanism responsible for the observation of VTE and the advantages provided by it. We tried several robots with different parameters, and we have found that they showed three different types of VTE: high numbers of VTE at the beginning of learning, decreasing numbers afterward (similar VTE pattern to experiments with rats), low during the whole learning period, and high numbers all the time. Therefore, we were able to reproduce the phenomenon of VTE in a model robot using only a simple dynamical neural network with Hebbian learning, which suggests that VTE is an emergent property of a plastic and embodied neural network. From a comparison of the three types of VTE, we demonstrated that 1) VTE is associated with chaotic activity of neurons in our model and 2) VTE-showing robots were robust to environmental perturbations. We suggest that the instability of neuronal activity found in VTE allows ongoing learning to rebuild its strategy continuously, which creates robust behavior. Based on these results, we suggest that VTE is caused by a similar mechanism in biology and leads to robust decision making in an analogous way.

Visual Basic, Excel-based fish population modeling tool - The pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moran, Edward H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Green, Nicholas S.; Albers, Janice L.

2016-02-10

The model presented in this report is a spreadsheet-based model using Visual Basic for Applications within Microsoft Excel (http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7057D0Z) prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It uses the same model structure and, initially, parameters as used by Wildhaber and others (2015) for pallid sturgeon. The difference between the model structure used for this report and that used by Wildhaber and others (2015) is that variance is not partitioned. For the model of this report, all variance is applied at the iteration and time-step levels of the model. Wildhaber and others (2015) partition variance into parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level and temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations with time) applied at the time-step level. They included implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) within the time-step level.The interface developed for the model of this report is designed to allow the user the flexibility to change population model structure and parameter values and uncertainty separately for every component of the model. This flexibility makes the modeling tool potentially applicable to any fish species; however, the flexibility inherent in this modeling tool makes it possible for the user to obtain spurious outputs. The value and reliability of the model outputs are only as good as the model inputs. Using this modeling tool with improper or inaccurate parameter values, or for species for which the structure of the model is inappropriate, could lead to untenable management decisions. By facilitating fish population modeling, this modeling tool allows the user to evaluate a range of management options and implications. The goal of this modeling tool is to be a user-friendly modeling tool for developing fish population models useful to natural resource managers to inform their decision-making processes; however, as with all population models, caution is needed, and a full understanding of the limitations of a model and the veracity of user-supplied parameters should always be considered when using such model output in the management of any species.

Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization.

PubMed

Woodward, Michelle; Kapelan, Zoran; Gouldby, Ben

2014-01-01

It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex. All these elements pose severe difficulties to decisionmakers. This article describes a decision support methodology that has the capability to assess the most appropriate set of interventions to make in a flood system and the opportune time to make these interventions, given the future uncertainties. The flood risk strategies have been explicitly designed to allow for flexible adaptive measures by capturing the concepts of real options and multiobjective optimization to evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities. A state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time and a multiobjective genetic algorithm is utilized to search for the optimal adaptive strategies. The modeling system has been applied to a reach on the Thames Estuary (London, England), and initial results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous, while the outputs provide decisionmakers with supplementary knowledge that previously has not been considered. © 2013 HR Wallingford Ltd.

[The use of the balanced scorecard and the budget in the strategic management of public hospitals].

PubMed

Naranjo Gil, David

2010-01-01

To analyze the relationship between hospital managers' characteristics and the use of the balanced scorecard and the budget. A further aim was to analyze how these two techniques influence strategic goals aimed at cost reduction and enhancing service flexibility. Data were collected through a questionnaire sent to 884 members of top management teams in 218 public hospitals in Spain. The response rate was 53.51% with 473 useful questionnaires. Structural equation techniques were used to validate the metric scales and the model used. Younger managers and less tenured managers were more likely to use the balanced scorecard than the budget. Diversity in the top management team was related to the use of distinct management control techniques. The use of the balanced scorecard was positively associated with the implementation of healthcare strategies focused on enhancing service flexibility and reducing healthcare cost. The adoption of management control systems is not only a function of the outcome of a rational decision-making process and institutional pressures but also crucially depends on the characteristics of the individuals ultimately responsible for such decisions. The use of the balanced scorecard facilitates hospitals' implementation of plans with multiple strategic goals. Copyright 2009 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Framework for assessing causality of air pollution-related health effects for reviews of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

PubMed

Owens, Elizabeth Oesterling; Patel, Molini M; Kirrane, Ellen; Long, Thomas C; Brown, James; Cote, Ila; Ross, Mary A; Dutton, Steven J

2017-08-01

To inform regulatory decisions on the risk due to exposure to ambient air pollution, consistent and transparent communication of the scientific evidence is essential. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) develops the Integrated Science Assessment (ISA), which contains evaluations of the policy-relevant science on the effects of criteria air pollutants and conveys critical science judgments to inform decisions on the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. This article discusses the approach and causal framework used in the ISAs to evaluate and integrate various lines of scientific evidence and draw conclusions about the causal nature of air pollution-induced health effects. The framework has been applied to diverse pollutants and cancer and noncancer effects. To demonstrate its flexibility, we provide examples of causality judgments on relationships between health effects and pollutant exposures, drawing from recent ISAs for ozone, lead, carbon monoxide, and oxides of nitrogen. U.S. EPA's causal framework has increased transparency by establishing a structured process for evaluating and integrating various lines of evidence and uniform approach for determining causality. The framework brings consistency and specificity to the conclusions in the ISA, and the flexibility of the framework makes it relevant for evaluations of evidence across media and health effects. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Technology diffusion and environmental regulation: Evidence from electric power plants under the Clean Air Act

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Elaine F.

Even though environmental policy can greatly affect the path of technology diffusion, the economics literature contains limited empirical evidence of this relationship. My research will contribute to the available evidence by providing insight into the technology adoption decisions of electric generating firms. Since policies are often evaluated based on the incentives they provide to promote adoption of new technologies, it is important that policy makers understand the relationship between technological diffusion and regulation structure to make informed decisions. Lessons learned from this study can be used to guide future policies such as those directed to mitigate climate change. I first explore the diffusion of scrubbers, a sulfur dioxide (SO 2) abatement technology, in response to federal market-based regulations and state command-and-control regulations. I develop a simple theoretical model to describe the adoption decisions of scrubbers and use a survival model to empirically test the theoretical model. I find that power plants with strict command-and-control regulations have a high probability of installing a scrubber. These findings suggest that although market-based regulations have encouraged diffusion, many scrubbers have been installed because of state regulatory pressure. Although tradable permit systems are thought to give firms more flexibility in choosing abatement technologies, I show that interactions between a permit system and pre-existing command-and-control regulations can limit that flexibility. In a separate analysis, I explore the diffusion of combined cycle (CC) generating units, which are natural gas-fired generating units that are cleaner and more efficient than alternative generating units. I model the decision to consider adoption of a CC generating unit and the extent to which the technology is adopted in response to environmental regulations imposed on new sources of pollutants. To accomplish this, I use a zero-inflated Poisson model and focus on both the decision to adopt a CC unit at an existing power plant as well as the firm-level decision to adopt a CC unit in either a new or an existing power plant. Evidence from this empirical investigation shows that environmental regulation has a significant effect on both the decision to consider adoption as well as the extent of adoption.

Maximization of Learning Speed Due to Neuronal Redundancy in Reinforcement Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takiyama, Ken

2016-11-01

Adaptable neural activity contributes to the flexibility of human behavior, which is optimized in situations such as motor learning and decision making. Although learning signals in motor learning and decision making are low-dimensional, neural activity, which is very high dimensional, must be modified to achieve optimal performance based on the low-dimensional signal, resulting in a severe credit-assignment problem. Despite this problem, the human brain contains a vast number of neurons, leaving an open question: what is the functional significance of the huge number of neurons? Here, I address this question by analyzing a redundant neural network with a reinforcement-learning algorithm in which the numbers of neurons and output units are N and M, respectively. Because many combinations of neural activity can generate the same output under the condition of N ≫ M, I refer to the index N - M as neuronal redundancy. Although greater neuronal redundancy makes the credit-assignment problem more severe, I demonstrate that a greater degree of neuronal redundancy facilitates learning speed. Thus, in an apparent contradiction of the credit-assignment problem, I propose the hypothesis that a functional role of a huge number of neurons or a huge degree of neuronal redundancy is to facilitate learning speed.

Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitt, Robert

In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market risk management to the business model of many companies.

Investigation of Multi-Criteria Decision Consistency: A Triplex Approach to Optimal Oilfield Portfolio Investment Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaradaghi, Mohammed

Complexity of the capital intensive oil and gas portfolio investments is continuously growing. It is manifested in the constant increase in the type, number and degree of risks and uncertainties, which consequently lead to more challenging decision making problems. A typical complex decision making problem in petroleum exploration and production (E&P) is the selection and prioritization of oilfields/projects in a portfolio investment. Prioritizing oilfields maybe required for different purposes, including the achievement of a targeted production and allocation of limited available development resources. These resources cannot be distributed evenly nor can they be allocated based on the oilfield size or production capacity alone since various other factors need to be considered simultaneously. These factors may include subsurface complexity, size of reservoir, plateau production and needed infrastructure in addition to other issues of strategic concern, such as socio-economic, environmental and fiscal policies, particularly when the decision making involves governments or national oil companies. Therefore, it would be imperative to employ decision aiding tools that not only address these factors, but also incorporate the decision makers' preferences clearly and accurately. However, the tools commonly used in project portfolio selection and optimization, including intuitive approaches, vary in their focus and strength in addressing the different criteria involved in such decision problems. They are also disadvantaged by a number of drawbacks, which may include lacking the capacity to address multiple and interrelated criteria, uncertainty and risk, project relationship with regard to value contribution and optimum resource utilization, non-monetary attributes, decision maker's knowledge and expertise, in addition to varying levels of ease of use and other practical and theoretical drawbacks. These drawbacks have motivated researchers to investigate other tools and techniques that can provide more flexibility and inclusiveness in the decision making process, such as Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. However, it can be observed that the MCDM literature: 1) is primarily focused on suggesting certain MCDM techniques to specific problems without providing sufficient evidence for their selection, 2) is inadequate in addressing MCDM in E&P portfolio selection and prioritization compared with other fields, and 3) does not address prioritizing brownfields (i.e., developed oilfields). This research study aims at addressing the above drawbacks through combining three MCDM methods (i.e., AHP, PROMETHEE and TOPSIS) into a single decision making tool that can support optimal oilfield portfolio investment decisions by helping determine the share of each oilfield of the total development resources allocated. Selecting these methods is reinforced by a pre-deployment and post-deployment validation framework. In addition, this study proposes a two-dimensional consistency test to verify the output coherence or prioritization stability of the MCDM methods in comparison with an intuitive approach. Nine scenarios representing all possible outcomes of the internal and external consistency tests are further proposed to reach a conclusion. The methodology is applied to a case study of six major oilfields in Iraq to generate percentage shares of each oilfield of a total production target that is in line with Iraq's aspiration to increase oil production. However, the methodology is intended to be applicable to other E&P portfolio investment prioritization scenarios by taking the specific contextual characteristics into consideration.

Portfolio Decisions and Brain Reactions via the CEAD method.

PubMed

Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

2016-09-01

Decision making can be a complex process requiring the integration of several attributes of choice options. Understanding the neural processes underlying (uncertain) investment decisions is an important topic in neuroeconomics. We analyzed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from an investment decision study for stimulus-related effects. We propose a new technique for identifying activated brain regions: cluster, estimation, activation, and decision method. Our analysis is focused on clusters of voxels rather than voxel units. Thus, we achieve a higher signal-to-noise ratio within the unit tested and a smaller number of hypothesis tests compared with the often used General Linear Model (GLM). We propose to first conduct the brain parcellation by applying spatially constrained spectral clustering. The information within each cluster can then be extracted by the flexible dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) dimension reduction technique and finally be tested for differences in activation between conditions. This sequence of Cluster, Estimation, Activation, and Decision admits a model-free analysis of the local fMRI signal. Applying a GLM on the DSFM-based time series resulted in a significant correlation between the risk of choice options and changes in fMRI signal in the anterior insula and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex. Additionally, individual differences in decision-related reactions within the DSFM time series predicted individual differences in risk attitudes as modeled with the framework of the mean-variance model.

A method for assessing work productivity and flexibility in livestock farms.

PubMed

Hostiou, N; Dedieu, B

2012-05-01

Changes affecting livestock farming systems have made farm work a central concern for both the sector and for farmers themselves. Increased pressure on farms to be competitive and productive together with farmers' demand for greater autonomy, holidays or time to spend on private activities and the family converge to underline the two key dimensions of work - productivity and flexibility - required for the assessment of work organization. This paper proposes a method called the QuaeWork (QUAlification and Evaluation of Work in livestock farms) to assess work productivity and flexibility on a farm, and its use to identify how livestock management can contribute to work organization on dairy farms. The QuaeWork method was set up through an iterative process combining surveys conducted with farmers in two regions of France, discussions with different experts and literature review. The QuaeWork was applied on a sample of seven dairy farms in the southern Massif Central in France to identify patterns of how livestock management contributes to work organization. The QuaeWork was used to analyse work organization over the year through a systemic approach to the farm, integrating interactions between herd and land management, workforce composition, equipment facilities and combinations of activities through a characterization of 'who does what, when and for how long'. The criteria for assessing work productivity were work duration (routine work, seasonal work) and work efficiency (per livestock unit or hectare of utilized agricultural area). The criteria for assessing work flexibility were room for manoeuvre and adjustments to internal and external events. The three main patterns of livestock management practices to work organization were identified. In pattern-1, farmers used indoor stable feeding practices with delegated work, with moderate room for manoeuvre and efficiency. In pattern-3, farmers used simplified milking, reproduction and breeding practices to seasonalize work and make it efficient with consistent room for manoeuvre. The method suggests social sustainability criteria to assess work productivity and flexibility, which are important for making reasoned decisions on livestock farm changes, especially innovations. Researchers could usefully exploit the QuaeWork to integrate work objectives (productivity, flexibility) into technical and economic goals.

Vlsi implementation of flexible architecture for decision tree classification in data mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, K. Venkatesh; Shewandagn, Behailu; Bhukya, Shankar Nayak

2017-07-01

The Data mining algorithms have become vital to researchers in science, engineering, medicine, business, search and security domains. In recent years, there has been a terrific raise in the size of the data being collected and analyzed. Classification is the main difficulty faced in data mining. In a number of the solutions developed for this problem, most accepted one is Decision Tree Classification (DTC) that gives high precision while handling very large amount of data. This paper presents VLSI implementation of flexible architecture for Decision Tree classification in data mining using c4.5 algorithm.

Characterization and Predictive Value of Segmental Curve Flexibility in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Patients.

PubMed

Yao, Guanfeng; Cheung, Jason P Y; Shigematsu, Hideki; Ohrt-Nissen, Søren; Cheung, Kenneth M C; Luk, Keith D K; Samartzis, Dino

2017-11-01

A prospective radiographic analysis of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients managed with alternate-level pedicle screw fixation was performed. The objective of this study was to characterize segmental curve flexibility and to determine its predictive value in curve correction in AIS patients. Little is known regarding the distinct segmental curve characteristics and their ability to predict curve correction in patients with AIS. The segmental Cobb angle was measured on posteroanterior standing radiographs and on fulcrum bending radiographs. Radiographs were analyzed preoperatively and at 2 years postoperatively and the curve was divided into upper, mid, and lower segments based on predefined criteria. The segmental flexibility and the segmental fulcrum bending correction index (FBCI) were calculated. Eighty patients were included with mean age of 15 years. Preoperative mean segmental Cobb angles were 18, 31, and 17 degrees in the upper, mid, and lower segments, respectively. Segmental bending Cobb angles were 6, 13, and 4 degrees, respectively, corresponding to segmental flexibilities of 50%, 47%, and 83% in the upper, mid, and lower segments, respectively (P < 0.001). At 2-year follow up, the mean segmental FBCI were 155%, 131%, and 100% in the upper, mid, and lower segments, respectively (P < 0.001), which suggested that the lower segment of the curve was more flexible than the other segments and that higher correction was noted in the upper segments. A significant, positive correlation was noted between the segmental bending Cobb angle and the segmental FBCI (P < 0.05), whereby the strength of the correlation varied based on the curve segment. This is the first study to demonstrate the segmental variations in curve flexibility using the fulcrum bending radiograph in AIS patients. Curve flexibility is not uniform throughout the curve and different segments exhibit greater flexibility/correctibility than others. Segmental flexibility should be considered in assessing AIS patients and in the clinical decision-making strategy to optimize curve correction outcomes. 03.

Empirical study of the dependence of the results of multivariable flexible survival analyses on model selection strategy.

PubMed

Binquet, C; Abrahamowicz, M; Mahboubi, A; Jooste, V; Faivre, J; Bonithon-Kopp, C; Quantin, C

2008-12-30

Flexible survival models, which avoid assumptions about hazards proportionality (PH) or linearity of continuous covariates effects, bring the issues of model selection to a new level of complexity. Each 'candidate covariate' requires inter-dependent decisions regarding (i) its inclusion in the model, and representation of its effects on the log hazard as (ii) either constant over time or time-dependent (TD) and, for continuous covariates, (iii) either loglinear or non-loglinear (NL). Moreover, 'optimal' decisions for one covariate depend on the decisions regarding others. Thus, some efficient model-building strategy is necessary.We carried out an empirical study of the impact of the model selection strategy on the estimates obtained in flexible multivariable survival analyses of prognostic factors for mortality in 273 gastric cancer patients. We used 10 different strategies to select alternative multivariable parametric as well as spline-based models, allowing flexible modeling of non-parametric (TD and/or NL) effects. We employed 5-fold cross-validation to compare the predictive ability of alternative models.All flexible models indicated significant non-linearity and changes over time in the effect of age at diagnosis. Conventional 'parametric' models suggested the lack of period effect, whereas more flexible strategies indicated a significant NL effect. Cross-validation confirmed that flexible models predicted better mortality. The resulting differences in the 'final model' selected by various strategies had also impact on the risk prediction for individual subjects.Overall, our analyses underline (a) the importance of accounting for significant non-parametric effects of covariates and (b) the need for developing accurate model selection strategies for flexible survival analyses. Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cardiac patients' perception of patient-centred care: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Esmaeili, Maryam; Cheraghi, Mohammad A; Salsali, Mahvash

2016-03-01

The aim of this study was to explore cardiac patients' perception of patient-centred care. Despite patient's importance in the process of care, less attention has been paid to experiences and expectations of patients in definitions of patient-centred care. As patients are an important element in process of patient-centred care, organizing care programs according to their perceptions and expectations will lead to enhanced quality of care and greater patient satisfaction. This study is a descriptive qualitative study. Content analysis approach was performed for data analysis. Participants were 18 cardiac patients (10 women and 8 men) hospitalized in coronary care units of teaching hospitals affiliated to Tehran University of Medical Sciences. We collected the study data through conducting personal face-to-face semi-structured interviews. The participants' perceptions of patient-centred care fell into three main themes including managing patients uncertainty, providing care with more flexibility and establishing a therapeutic communication. The second theme consisted of two sub-themes: empathizing with patients and having the right to make independent decisions. Receiving patient-centred care is essential for cardiac patients. Attention to priorities and preferences of cardiac patients and making decisions accordingly is among effective strategies for achieving patient-centred care. Cardiac care unit nurses ought to be aware that in spite of technological developments and advances, it is still important to pay attention to patients' needs and expectations in order to achieve patient satisfaction. In planning care programs, they should consider accountability towards patients' needs, flexibility in process of care and establishing medical interactions as an effective strategy for improving quality of care. © 2014 British Association of Critical Care Nurses.

A reservoir of time constants for memory traces in cortical neurons

PubMed Central

Bernacchia, Alberto; Seo, Hyojung; Lee, Daeyeol; Wang, Xiao-Jing

2011-01-01

According to reinforcement learning theory of decision making, reward expectation is computed by integrating past rewards with a fixed timescale. By contrast, we found that a wide range of time constants is available across cortical neurons recorded from monkeys performing a competitive game task. By recognizing that reward modulates neural activity multiplicatively, we found that one or two time constants of reward memory can be extracted for each neuron in prefrontal, cingulate, and parietal cortex. These timescales ranged from hundreds of milliseconds to tens of seconds, according to a power-law distribution, which is consistent across areas and reproduced by a “reservoir” neural network model. These neuronal memory timescales were weakly but significantly correlated with those of monkey's decisions. Our findings suggest a flexible memory system, where neural subpopulations with distinct sets of long or short memory timescales may be selectively deployed according to the task demands. PMID:21317906

IEEE 802.21 Assisted Seamless and Energy Efficient Handovers in Mixed Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Huaiyu; Maciocco, Christian; Kesavan, Vijay; Low, Andy L. Y.

Network selection is the decision process for a mobile terminal to handoff between homogeneous or heterogeneous networks. With multiple available networks, the selection process must evaluate factors like network services/conditions, monetary cost, system conditions, user preferences etc. In this paper, we investigate network selection using a cost function and information provided by IEEE 802.21. The cost function provides flexibility to balance different factors in decision making and our research is focused on improving both seamlessness and energy efficiency of handovers. Our solution is evaluated using real WiFi, WiMax, and 3G signal strength traces. The results show that appropriate networks were selected based on selection policies, handovers were triggered at optimal times to increase overall network connectivity as compared to traditional triggering schemes, while at the same time the energy consumption of multi-radio devices for both on-going operations as well as during handovers is optimized.

Implicit knowledge of visual uncertainty guides decisions with asymmetric outcomes.

PubMed

Whiteley, Louise; Sahani, Maneesh

2008-03-06

Perception is an "inverse problem," in which the state of the world must be inferred from the sensory neural activity that results. However, this inference is both ill-posed (Helmholtz, 1856; Marr, 1982) and corrupted by noise (Green & Swets, 1989), requiring the brain to compute perceptual beliefs under conditions of uncertainty. Here we show that human observers performing a simple visual choice task under an externally imposed loss function approach the optimal strategy, as defined by Bayesian probability and decision theory (Berger, 1985; Cox, 1961). In concert with earlier work, this suggests that observers possess a model of their internal uncertainty and can utilize this model in the neural computations that underlie their behavior (Knill & Pouget, 2004). In our experiment, optimal behavior requires that observers integrate the loss function with an estimate of their internal uncertainty rather than simply requiring that they use a modal estimate of the uncertain stimulus. Crucially, they approach optimal behavior even when denied the opportunity to learn adaptive decision strategies based on immediate feedback. Our data thus support the idea that flexible representations of uncertainty are pre-existing, widespread, and can be propagated to decision-making areas of the brain.

An interval-parameter mixed integer multi-objective programming for environment-oriented evacuation management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. Z.; Huang, G. H.; Yan, X. P.; Cai, Y. P.; Li, Y. P.

2010-05-01

Large crowds are increasingly common at political, social, economic, cultural and sports events in urban areas. This has led to attention on the management of evacuations under such situations. In this study, we optimise an approximation method for vehicle allocation and route planning in case of an evacuation. This method, based on an interval-parameter multi-objective optimisation model, has potential for use in a flexible decision support system for evacuation management. The modeling solutions are obtained by sequentially solving two sub-models corresponding to lower- and upper-bounds for the desired objective function value. The interval solutions are feasible and stable in the given decision space, and this may reduce the negative effects of uncertainty, thereby improving decision makers' estimates under different conditions. The resulting model can be used for a systematic analysis of the complex relationships among evacuation time, cost and environmental considerations. The results of a case study used to validate the proposed model show that the model does generate useful solutions for planning evacuation management and practices. Furthermore, these results are useful for evacuation planners, not only in making vehicle allocation decisions but also for providing insight into the tradeoffs among evacuation time, environmental considerations and economic objectives.

Identification of design features to enhance utilization and acceptance of systems for Internet-based decision support at the point of care.

PubMed Central

Gadd, C. S.; Baskaran, P.; Lobach, D. F.

1998-01-01

Extensive utilization of point-of-care decision support systems will be largely dependent on the development of user interaction capabilities that make them effective clinical tools in patient care settings. This research identified critical design features of point-of-care decision support systems that are preferred by physicians, through a multi-method formative evaluation of an evolving prototype of an Internet-based clinical decision support system. Clinicians used four versions of the system--each highlighting a different functionality. Surveys and qualitative evaluation methodologies assessed clinicians' perceptions regarding system usability and usefulness. Our analyses identified features that improve perceived usability, such as telegraphic representations of guideline-related information, facile navigation, and a forgiving, flexible interface. Users also preferred features that enhance usefulness and motivate use, such as an encounter documentation tool and the availability of physician instruction and patient education materials. In addition to identifying design features that are relevant to efforts to develop clinical systems for point-of-care decision support, this study demonstrates the value of combining quantitative and qualitative methods of formative evaluation with an iterative system development strategy to implement new information technology in complex clinical settings. Images Figure 1 PMID:9929188

Evaluation of Ensemble Water Supply and Demands Forecasts for Water Management in the Klamath River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broman, D.; Gangopadhyay, S.; McGuire, M.; Wood, A.; Leady, Z.; Tansey, M. K.; Nelson, K.; Dahm, K.

2017-12-01

The Upper Klamath River Basin in south central Oregon and north central California is home to the Klamath Irrigation Project, which is operated by the Bureau of Reclamation and provides water to around 200,000 acres of agricultural lands. The project is managed in consideration of not only water deliveries to irrigators, but also wildlife refuge water demands, biological opinion requirements for Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed fish, and Tribal Trust responsibilities. Climate change has the potential to impact water management in terms of volume and timing of water and the ability to meet multiple objectives. Current operations use a spreadsheet-based decision support tool, with water supply forecasts from the National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). This tool is currently limited in its ability to incorporate in ensemble forecasts, which offer the potential for improved operations by quantifying forecast uncertainty. To address these limitations, this study has worked to develop a RiverWare based water resource systems model, flexible enough to use across multiple decision time-scales, from short-term operations out to long-range planning. Systems model development has been accompanied by operational system development to handle data management and multiple modeling components. Using a set of ensemble hindcasts, this study seeks to answer several questions: A) Do a new set of ensemble streamflow forecasts have additional skill beyond what?, and allow for improved decision making under changing conditions? B) Do net irrigation water requirement forecasts developed in this project to quantify agricultural demands and reservoir evaporation forecasts provide additional benefits to decision making beyond water supply forecasts? C) What benefit do ensemble forecasts have in the context of water management decisions?

Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; Ellner, Stephen P

2016-07-01

Despite major advances in quantitative approaches to natural resource management, there has been resistance to using these tools in the actual practice of managing ecological populations. Given a managed system and a set of assumptions, translated into a model, optimization methods can be used to solve for the most cost-effective management actions. However, when the underlying assumptions are not met, such methods can potentially lead to decisions that harm the environment and economy. Managers who develop decisions based on past experience and judgment, without the aid of mathematical models, can potentially learn about the system and develop flexible management strategies. However, these strategies are often based on subjective criteria and equally invalid and often unstated assumptions. Given the drawbacks of both methods, it is unclear whether simple quantitative models improve environmental decision making over expert opinion. In this study, we explore how well students, using their experience and judgment, manage simulated fishery populations in an online computer game and compare their management outcomes to the performance of model-based decisions. We consider harvest decisions generated using four different quantitative models: (1) the model used to produce the simulated population dynamics observed in the game, with the values of all parameters known (as a control), (2) the same model, but with unknown parameter values that must be estimated during the game from observed data, (3) models that are structurally different from those used to simulate the population dynamics, and (4) a model that ignores age structure. Humans on average performed much worse than the models in cases 1-3, but in a small minority of scenarios, models produced worse outcomes than those resulting from students making decisions based on experience and judgment. When the models ignored age structure, they generated poorly performing management decisions, but still outperformed students using experience and judgment 66% of the time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

2012-04-01

An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows are usually only suited for rigid processes. We show how improvements can be achieved by using decision tables and rule-based adaptive workflows. Decision tables have been shown to be an intuitive tool that can be used by domain experts to express rule sets that can be interpreted automatically at runtime. Adaptive workflows use a rule-based approach to increase the flexibility of workflows by providing mechanisms to adapt workflows based on context changes, human intervention and availability of services. The combination of workflows, decision tables and rule-based adaption creates a framework that opens up new possibilities for flexible and adaptable workflows, especially, for use in early warning and crisis management systems.

Adaptive Flexibility and Maladaptive Routines in Selecting Fast and Frugal Decision Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broder, Arndt; Schiffer, Stefanie

2006-01-01

Decision routines unburden the cognitive capacity of the decision maker. In changing environments, however, routines may become maladaptive. In 2 experiments with a hypothetical stock market game (n = 241), the authors tested whether decision routines tend to persist at the level of decision strategies rather than at the level of options in…

Prefrontal Dopamine D1 and D2 Receptors Regulate Dissociable Aspects of Decision Making via Distinct Ventral Striatal and Amygdalar Circuits.

PubMed

Jenni, Nicole L; Larkin, Joshua D; Floresco, Stan B

2017-06-28

Mesocortical dopamine (DA) regulates a variety of cognitive functions via actions on D 1 and/or D 2 receptors. For example, risk/reward decision making is modulated differentially by these two receptors within the prefrontal cortex (PFC), with D 2 receptors enabling flexible decision making and D 1 receptors promoting persistence in choice biases. However, it is unclear how DA mediates opposing patterns of behavior by acting on different receptors within the same terminal region. We explored the possibility that DA may act on separate networks of PFC neurons that are modulated by D 1 or D 2 receptors and in turn interface with divergent downstream structures such as the basolateral amygdala (BLA) or nucleus accumbens (NAc). Decision making was assessed using a probabilistic discounting task in which well trained male rats chose between small/certain or large/risky rewards, with the odds of obtaining the larger reward changing systematically within a session. Selective disruption of D 1 or D 2 modulation of separate PFC output pathways was achieved using unilateral intra-PFC infusions of DA antagonists combined with contralateral inactivation of the BLA or NAc. Disrupting D 2 (but not D 1 ) modulation of PFC→BLA circuitry impaired adjustments in decision biases in response to changes in reward probabilities. In contrast, disrupting D 1 modulation of PFC→NAc networks reduced risky choice, attenuating reward sensitivity and increasing sensitivity to reward omissions. These findings reveal that mesocortical DA can facilitate dissociable components of reward seeking and action selection by acting on different functional networks of PFC neurons that can be distinguished by the subcortical projection targets with which they interface. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Prefrontal cortical dopamine regulates a variety of executive functions governed by the frontal lobes via actions on D 1 and D 2 receptors. These receptors can in some instances mediate different patterns of behavior, but the mechanisms underlying these dissociable actions are unclear. Using a selective disconnection approach, we reveal that D 1 and D 2 receptors can facilitate diverse aspects of decision making by acting on separate networks of prefrontal neurons that interface with distinct striatal or amygdalar targets. These findings reveal an additional level of complexity in how mesocortical DA regulates different forms of cognition via actions on different receptors, highlighting how it may act upon distinct cortical microcircuits to drive different patterns of behavior. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/376200-14$15.00/0.

Robust path planning for flexible needle insertion using Markov decision processes.

PubMed

Tan, Xiaoyu; Yu, Pengqian; Lim, Kah-Bin; Chui, Chee-Kong

2018-05-11

Flexible needle has the potential to accurately navigate to a treatment region in the least invasive manner. We propose a new planning method using Markov decision processes (MDPs) for flexible needle navigation that can perform robust path planning and steering under the circumstance of complex tissue-needle interactions. This method enhances the robustness of flexible needle steering from three different perspectives. First, the method considers the problem caused by soft tissue deformation. The method then resolves the common needle penetration failure caused by patterns of targets, while the last solution addresses the uncertainty issues in flexible needle motion due to complex and unpredictable tissue-needle interaction. Computer simulation and phantom experimental results show that the proposed method can perform robust planning and generate a secure control policy for flexible needle steering. Compared with a traditional method using MDPs, the proposed method achieves higher accuracy and probability of success in avoiding obstacles under complicated and uncertain tissue-needle interactions. Future work will involve experiment with biological tissue in vivo. The proposed robust path planning method can securely steer flexible needle within soft phantom tissues and achieve high adaptability in computer simulation.

Horizontal fall arrest systems: rigid systems vs. flexible line systems.

PubMed

Lough, David

2004-09-01

There are many types of flexible and rigid systems on the market, both permanent and temporary. This article does not mean to encompass all possible systems or hazards and only intends to give an outline of what at a minimum should be examined to make an educated purchasing decision. In many instances, the buyer will use the same type of horizontal system for all situations. This is a good idea in some cases because it will reduce the need for training on a number of different systems, reduce system compatibility issues, and may reduce costs for installation, supply, and maintenance. This may not be the best idea if the hazard areas differ a great deal; as we have illustrated, one system may not function for all areas and tasks. The rigid system is typically the best solution simply based on the fact the worker won't fall as far as when he is connected to a flexible system, because of the elimination of any dynamic sag and horizontal energy absorber deployment. In any case, where you stop the worker from falling farther, you decrease the chance there may be an incident where the worker is injured. From a cost standpoint, flexible fall arrest systems typically are cheapest. In the end, safety professionals must balance the cost and effectiveness of the system to prevent an injury.

Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO.

PubMed

Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S C

2015-11-24

Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.

Making multipayer reform work: what can be learned from medical home initiatives.

PubMed

Takach, Mary; Townley, Charles; Yalowich, Rachel; Kinsler, Sarah

2015-04-01

Multipayer collaboratives of all types will encounter legal, logistical, and often political obstacles that multipayer medical home initiatives have already overcome. The seventeen multipayer medical home initiatives launched between 2008 and 2014 all navigated four critical decision-making points: convening stakeholders; establishing provider participation criteria; determining payment; and measuring performance. Although we observed trends toward voluntary payer participation and more flexible participation criteria for both payers and providers, initiatives continue to vary widely, each shaped largely by its insurance market and policy environment. Medical home initiatives across the United States are demonstrating that multipayer reform, although complex and difficult to implement, is feasible when committed stakeholders negotiate strategies that are responsive to the local context. Their experiences can inform, and perhaps expedite, negotiations in current and future multipayer collaborations. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Generalizing Prototype Theory: A Formal Quantum Framework

PubMed Central

Aerts, Diederik; Broekaert, Jan; Gabora, Liane; Sozzo, Sandro

2016-01-01

Theories of natural language and concepts have been unable to model the flexibility, creativity, context-dependence, and emergence, exhibited by words, concepts and their combinations. The mathematical formalism of quantum theory has instead been successful in capturing these phenomena such as graded membership, situational meaning, composition of categories, and also more complex decision making situations, which cannot be modeled in traditional probabilistic approaches. We show how a formal quantum approach to concepts and their combinations can provide a powerful extension of prototype theory. We explain how prototypes can interfere in conceptual combinations as a consequence of their contextual interactions, and provide an illustration of this using an intuitive wave-like diagram. This quantum-conceptual approach gives new life to original prototype theory, without however making it a privileged concept theory, as we explain at the end of our paper. PMID:27065436

Adaptive History Biases Result from Confidence-Weighted Accumulation of past Choices

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Perceptual decision-making is biased by previous events, including the history of preceding choices: observers tend to repeat (or alternate) their judgments of the sensory environment more often than expected by chance. Computational models postulate that these so-called choice history biases result from the accumulation of internal decision signals across trials. Here, we provide psychophysical evidence for such a mechanism and its adaptive utility. Male and female human observers performed different variants of a challenging visual motion discrimination task near psychophysical threshold. In a first experiment, we decoupled categorical perceptual choices and motor responses on a trial-by-trial basis. Choice history bias was explained by previous perceptual choices, not motor responses, highlighting the importance of internal decision signals in action-independent formats. In a second experiment, observers performed the task in stimulus environments containing different levels of autocorrelation and providing no external feedback about choice correctness. Despite performing under overall high levels of uncertainty, observers adjusted both the strength and the sign of their choice history biases to these environments. When stimulus sequences were dominated by either repetitions or alternations, the individual degree of this adjustment of history bias was about as good a predictor of individual performance as individual perceptual sensitivity. The history bias adjustment scaled with two proxies for observers' confidence about their previous choices (accuracy and reaction time). Together, our results are consistent with the idea that action-independent, confidence-modulated decision variables are accumulated across choices in a flexible manner that depends on decision-makers' model of their environment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Decisions based on sensory input are often influenced by the history of one's preceding choices, manifesting as a bias to systematically repeat (or alternate) choices. We here provide support for the idea that such choice history biases arise from the context-dependent accumulation of a quantity referred to as the decision variable: the variable's sign dictates the choice and its magnitude the confidence about choice correctness. We show that choices are accumulated in an action-independent format and a context-dependent manner, weighted by the confidence about their correctness. This confidence-weighted accumulation of choices enables decision-makers to flexibly adjust their behavior to different sensory environments. The bias adjustment can be as important for optimizing performance as one's sensitivity to the momentary sensory input. PMID:29371318

Adaptive History Biases Result from Confidence-weighted Accumulation of Past Choices.

PubMed

Braun, Anke; Urai, Anne E; Donner, Tobias H

2018-01-25

Perceptual decision-making is biased by previous events, including the history of preceding choices: Observers tend to repeat (or alternate) their judgments of the sensory environment more often than expected by chance. Computational models postulate that these so-called choice history biases result from the accumulation of internal decision signals across trials. Here, we provide psychophysical evidence for such a mechanism and its adaptive utility. Male and female human observers performed different variants of a challenging visual motion discrimination task near psychophysical threshold. In a first experiment, we decoupled categorical perceptual choices and motor responses on a trial-by-trial basis. Choice history bias was explained by previous perceptual choices, not motor responses, highlighting the importance of internal decision signals in action-independent formats. In a second experiment, observers performed the task in stimulus environments containing different levels of auto-correlation and providing no external feedback about choice correctness. Despite performing under overall high levels of uncertainty, observers adjusted both the strength and the sign of their choice history biases to these environments. When stimulus sequences were dominated by either repetitions or alternations, the individual degree of this adjustment of history bias was about as good a predictor of individual performance as individual perceptual sensitivity. The history bias adjustment scaled with two proxies for observers' confidence about their previous choices (accuracy and reaction time). Taken together, our results are consistent with the idea that action-independent, confidence-modulated decision variables are accumulated across choices in a flexible manner that depends on decision-makers' model of their environment. Significance statement: Decisions based on sensory input are often influenced by the history of one's preceding choices, manifesting as a bias to systematically repeat (or alternate) choices. We here provide support for the idea that such choice history biases arise from the context-dependent accumulation of a quantity referred to as the decision variable: the variable's sign dictates the choice and its magnitude the confidence about choice correctness. We show that choices are accumulated in an action-independent format and a context-dependent manner, weighted by the confidence about their correctness. This confidence-weighted accumulation of choices enables decision-makers to flexibly adjust their behavior to different sensory environments. The bias adjustment can be as important for optimizing performance as one's sensitivity to the momentary sensory input. Copyright © 2018 Braun et al.

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. Since sub-daily streamflow information is unavailable for most small basins in China, one of the main challenges is finding appropriate parameter values for simulating flash floods in ungauged catchments. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability between different catchments. For this purpose, the physically-based, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PRMS-OMS is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly data from more than 800 storm runoff events are used to calibrate the model and evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. For each catchment, 58 catchment attributes are extracted from several data sets available for whole China. We then use a data mining technique (decision tree learning) to identify catchment similarities that can be related to good transfer performance. Finally, we use the splitting rules of decision trees for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. We show that decision tree learning allows to optimally utilize the information content of available catchment descriptors and outperforms regionalization based on a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by 15%-20%. Similar performance can be achieved with a regionalization method based on spatial proximity, but decision trees offer flexible rules for selecting suitable donor catchments, not relying on the vicinity of gauged catchments. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged environments. We evaluate the probability to detect flood events exceeding a given return period, considering measured discharge and PRMS-OMS simulated flows with regionalized parameters. Overall, the probability of detection of an event with a return period of 10 years is 62%. 44% of all 10-year flood peaks can be detected with a timing error of 2 hours or less. These results indicate that the modeling system can provide useful information about the timing and magnitude of flood events at ungauged sites.

Adaptive management: The U.S. Department of the Interior technical guide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B K; Szaro, Robert C.; Shapiro, Carl D.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this technical guide is to present an operational definition of adaptive management, identify the conditions in which adaptive management should be considered, and describe the process of using adaptive management for managing natural resources. The guide is not an exhaustive discussion of adaptive management, nor does it include detailed specifications for individual projects. However, it should aid U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) managers and practitioners in determining when and how to apply adaptive management. Adaptive management is framed within the context of structured decision making, with an emphasis on uncertainty about resource responses to management actions and the value of reducing that uncertainty to improve management. Though learning plays a key role in adaptive management, it is seen here as a means to an end, namely good management, and not an end in itself. The operational definition used in the guide is adopted from the National Research Council, which characterizes adaptive management as an iterative learning process producing improved understanding and improved management over time: Adaptive management [is a decision process that] promotes flexible decision making that can be adjusted in the face of uncertainties as outcomes from management actions and other events become better understood. Careful monitoring of these outcomes both advances scientific understanding and helps adjust policies or operations as part of an iterative learning process. Adaptive management also recognizes the importance of natural variability in contributing to ecological resilience and productivity. It is not a ‘trial and error’ process, but rather emphasizes learning while doing. Adaptive management does not represent an end in itself, but rather a means to more effective decisions and enhanced benefits. Its true measure is in how well it helps meet environmental, social, and economic goals, increases scientific knowledge, and reduces tensions among stakeholders. Adaptive management as defined here involves ongoing, real-time learning and knowledge creation, both in a substantive sense and in terms of the adaptive process itself. It is described in what follows in a series of 9 steps, as summarized in section 4.1, involving stakeholder involvement, management objectives, management alternatives, predictive models, monitoring plans, decision making, monitoring responses to management, assessment, and adjustment to management actions. An adaptive approach actively engages stakeholders in all phases of a project over its timeframe, facilitating mutual learning and reinforcing the commitment to learning-based management. Adaptive management in DOI is implemented within a legal context that includes statutory authorities such as the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Endangered Species Act, and the Federal Advisory Committee Act. For many important problems now facing the resource management community, adaptive management holds great promise in reducing the uncertainties that limit the effective management of natural resource systems. For many conservation and management problems, utilizing management itself in an experimental context may be the only feasible way to gain the system understanding needed to improve management. Though it is commonly thought that an adaptive approach can produce results quickly at low cost, the opposite is more likely to be true. An initial investment of time and effort will increase the likelihood of better decision making and resource stewardship in the future, but patience, flexibility, and support are needed over the life of an adaptive management project. For these reasons it is important to carefully consider the potential use of an adaptive approach, and to engage in careful planning and evaluation when adaptive management is used.

Research Initiatives and Preliminary Results In Automation Design In Airspace Management in Free Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corker, Kevin; Lebacqz, J. Victor (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The NASA and the FAA have entered into a joint venture to explore, define, design and implement a new airspace management operating concept. The fundamental premise of that concept is that technologies and procedures need to be developed for flight deck and ground operations to improve the efficiency, the predictability, the flexibility and the safety of airspace management and operations. To that end NASA Ames has undertaken an initial development and exploration of "key concepts" in the free flight airspace management technology development. Human Factors issues in automation aiding design, coupled aiding systems between air and ground, communication protocols in distributed decision making, and analytic techniques for definition of concepts of airspace density and operator cognitive load have been undertaken. This paper reports the progress of these efforts, which are not intended to definitively solve the many evolving issues of design for future ATM systems, but to provide preliminary results to chart the parameters of performance and the topology of the analytic effort required. The preliminary research in provision of cockpit display of traffic information, dynamic density definition, distributed decision making, situation awareness models and human performance models is discussed as they focus on the theme of "design requirements".

Multiple response optimization for higher dimensions in factors and responses

DOE PAGES

Lu, Lu; Chapman, Jessica L.; Anderson-Cook, Christine M.

2016-07-19

When optimizing a product or process with multiple responses, a two-stage Pareto front approach is a useful strategy to evaluate and balance trade-offs between different estimated responses to seek optimum input locations for achieving the best outcomes. After objectively eliminating non-contenders in the first stage by looking for a Pareto front of superior solutions, graphical tools can be used to identify a final solution in the second subjective stage to compare options and match with user priorities. Until now, there have been limitations on the number of response variables and input factors that could effectively be visualized with existing graphicalmore » summaries. We present novel graphical tools that can be more easily scaled to higher dimensions, in both the input and response spaces, to facilitate informed decision making when simultaneously optimizing multiple responses. A key aspect of these graphics is that the potential solutions can be flexibly sorted to investigate specific queries, and that multiple aspects of the solutions can be simultaneously considered. As a result, recommendations are made about how to evaluate the impact of the uncertainty associated with the estimated response surfaces on decision making with higher dimensions.« less

Self-organized discrimination of resources.

PubMed

Campo, Alexandre; Garnier, Simon; Dédriche, Olivier; Zekkri, Mouhcine; Dorigo, Marco

2011-01-01

When selecting a resource to exploit, an insect colony must take into account at least two constraints: the resource must be abundant enough to sustain the whole group, but not too large to limit exploitation costs, and risks of conflicts with other colonies. Following recent results on cockroaches and ants, we introduce here a behavioral mechanism that satisfies these two constraints. Individuals simply modulate their probability to switch to another resource as a function of the local density of conspecifics locally detected. As a result, the individuals gather at the smallest resource that can host the whole group, hence reducing competition and exploitation costs while fulfilling the overall group's needs. Our analysis reveals that the group becomes better at discriminating between similar resources as it grows in size. Also, the discrimination mechanism is flexible and the group readily switches to a better suited resource as it appears in the environment. The collective decision emerges through the self-organization of individuals, that is, in absence of any centralized control. It also requires a minimal individual cognitive investment, making the proposed mechanism likely to occur in other social species and suitable for the development of distributed decision making tools.

Self-Organized Discrimination of Resources

PubMed Central

Campo, Alexandre; Garnier, Simon; Dédriche, Olivier; Zekkri, Mouhcine; Dorigo, Marco

2011-01-01

When selecting a resource to exploit, an insect colony must take into account at least two constraints: the resource must be abundant enough to sustain the whole group, but not too large to limit exploitation costs, and risks of conflicts with other colonies. Following recent results on cockroaches and ants, we introduce here a behavioral mechanism that satisfies these two constraints. Individuals simply modulate their probability to switch to another resource as a function of the local density of conspecifics locally detected. As a result, the individuals gather at the smallest resource that can host the whole group, hence reducing competition and exploitation costs while fulfilling the overall group's needs. Our analysis reveals that the group becomes better at discriminating between similar resources as it grows in size. Also, the discrimination mechanism is flexible and the group readily switches to a better suited resource as it appears in the environment. The collective decision emerges through the self-organization of individuals, that is, in absence of any centralized control. It also requires a minimal individual cognitive investment, making the proposed mechanism likely to occur in other social species and suitable for the development of distributed decision making tools. PMID:21625643

Elements of an integrated health monitoring framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, Michael; Elgamal, Ahmed; Conte, Joel P.; Masri, Sami; Fountain, Tony; Gupta, Amarnath; Trivedi, Mohan; El Zarki, Magda

2003-07-01

Internet technologies are increasingly facilitating real-time monitoring of Bridges and Highways. The advances in wireless communications for instance, are allowing practical deployments for large extended systems. Sensor data, including video signals, can be used for long-term condition assessment, traffic-load regulation, emergency response, and seismic safety applications. Computer-based automated signal-analysis algorithms routinely process the incoming data and determine anomalies based on pre-defined response thresholds and more involved signal analysis techniques. Upon authentication, appropriate action may be authorized for maintenance, early warning, and/or emergency response. In such a strategy, data from thousands of sensors can be analyzed with near real-time and long-term assessment and decision-making implications. Addressing the above, a flexible and scalable (e.g., for an entire Highway system, or portfolio of Networked Civil Infrastructure) software architecture/framework is being developed and implemented. This framework will network and integrate real-time heterogeneous sensor data, database and archiving systems, computer vision, data analysis and interpretation, physics-based numerical simulation of complex structural systems, visualization, reliability & risk analysis, and rational statistical decision-making procedures. Thus, within this framework, data is converted into information, information into knowledge, and knowledge into decision at the end of the pipeline. Such a decision-support system contributes to the vitality of our economy, as rehabilitation, renewal, replacement, and/or maintenance of this infrastructure are estimated to require expenditures in the Trillion-dollar range nationwide, including issues of Homeland security and natural disaster mitigation. A pilot website (http://bridge.ucsd.edu/compositedeck.html) currently depicts some basic elements of the envisioned integrated health monitoring analysis framework.

The shaping of pharmaceutical governance: the Israeli case.

PubMed

Sax, Philip

2014-01-01

This article focuses on governance of the pharmaceutical sector in Israel. It traces the relationships between the state, industry, and sick funds from before the establishment of National Health Insurance (NHI) in 1995 to the beginning of this decade, in particular as they have grappled with the challenge of making national formulary decisions in a rational manner. Subsequent to the introduction of NHI there have been shifts in the modes and mix of governance. This research shows empirically that a relatively complex mix of hierarchical and network modes of governance can be successfully established over an extended period of time when flexibility is maintained through the implementation process. The system for defining and updating a standard basket of health services has coped well with the challenge of managing a range of difficult and potentially volatile stakeholder relationships in the pharmaceutical sector and of distancing ministers from controversies of funding and listing decisions. Government has succeeded in containing drug costs whilst still maintaining a basket of reimbursable drugs that, from an international perspective, is comprehensive and technologically advanced. On the other hand, network arrangements appear to have delayed the introduction of suitable accountability relationships and hindered their development. The state has traditionally played an intermediary role between unavoidable corporate interests of industry and sick funds, with little transparency and to the detriment of more pluralistic access to decision making. Governance arrangements in Israel appear to limit the potential and incentive of the state and the sick funds to realize their potential countervailing powers in subsidy and pricing decisions.

Supplier selection in supply chain management using analytical network process for Indonesian cement industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, A. H.; Mahardika, R. Z. Z.

2017-12-01

Supply chain management has increased more significance with the impact of globalization. In the present worldwide market, well-managed supply chain is a standout amongst the most vital requirement to be more competitive in the market. For any organization incorporate cement industry, the most critical decision in initial process of supply chain management is to buy products, materials or services from suppliers. So the role of suppliers is irrefutable important in the global aggressive markets. Appropriate decision of supplier selection can lead to reducing cost in supply chain management. However, it is becoming more complex because of existing various criteria and involving the suitable experts in the company to make valid decision in accordance with its criteria. In this study, the supplier selection of an Indonesia’s leading cement company is analyzed by using one of the popular multi-criteria decision making method, Saaty’s analytical network process (ANP). It is employed for the selection of the best alternative among three suppliers of pasted bag. Supplier with the highest rank comes from several major steps from building the relationship between various criteria to rating the alternatives with the help of experts from the company. The results show that, Communication capability, Flexible payment terms, Ability to meet delivery quantities are the most important criteria in the pasted bag supplier selection in Indonesian cement industry with 0.155, 0.110 and 0.1 ANP coefficient respectively. And based on the ANP coefficient values in limit supermatrix, the A2 or supplier 2 had the highest score with 64.7% or 0.13 ANP coefficient.

The shaping of pharmaceutical governance: the Israeli case

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

This article focuses on governance of the pharmaceutical sector in Israel. It traces the relationships between the state, industry, and sick funds from before the establishment of National Health Insurance (NHI) in 1995 to the beginning of this decade, in particular as they have grappled with the challenge of making national formulary decisions in a rational manner. Subsequent to the introduction of NHI there have been shifts in the modes and mix of governance. This research shows empirically that a relatively complex mix of hierarchical and network modes of governance can be successfully established over an extended period of time when flexibility is maintained through the implementation process. The system for defining and updating a standard basket of health services has coped well with the challenge of managing a range of difficult and potentially volatile stakeholder relationships in the pharmaceutical sector and of distancing ministers from controversies of funding and listing decisions. Government has succeeded in containing drug costs whilst still maintaining a basket of reimbursable drugs that, from an international perspective, is comprehensive and technologically advanced. On the other hand, network arrangements appear to have delayed the introduction of suitable accountability relationships and hindered their development. The state has traditionally played an intermediary role between unavoidable corporate interests of industry and sick funds, with little transparency and to the detriment of more pluralistic access to decision making. Governance arrangements in Israel appear to limit the potential and incentive of the state and the sick funds to realize their potential countervailing powers in subsidy and pricing decisions. PMID:24914409

Does the PFC model of analogy account for decision making, problem solving, reasoning, flexibility, adaptability, and even creativity?

PubMed

Barutta, Joaquin; Guex, Raphael; Ibáñez, Agustín

2010-06-01

Abstract From everyday cognition to scientific discovery, analogical processes play an important role: bringing connection, integration, and interrelation of information. Recently, a PFC model of analogy has been proposed to explain many cognitive processes and integrate general functional properties of PFC. We argue here that analogical processes do not suffice to explain the cognitive processes and functions of PFC. Moreover the model does not satisfactorily integrate specific explanatory mechanisms required for the different processes involved. Its relevance would be improved if fewer cognitive phenomena were considered and more specific predictions and explanations about those processes were stated.

The chief information officer--capturing healthcare's rare bird.

PubMed

Krinsky, M L

1986-08-01

While we occasionally conducted MIS executive searches during the 1970s, the recent pace has quickened substantially. Healthcare corporations need the MIS executive or CIO to keep the organization technologically and managerially current. Downsizing of acute-care facilities, expansion of outpatient services and creation of new programs have put a premium on current, computer-generated data. Skilled managers must rely on an efficient, flexible data processing department to evaluate options and make decisions about corporate strategy and program development. A presentable, articulate, personable MIS executive is a key ingredient in a successful management team. The position will continue to grow in importance and prominence in the fast-changing healthcare delivery industry.

Pioneering space exploration: The JSC strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

The framework that JCS's senior management will use to guide effective decision making to achieve our long-rang goals while soliciting inputs from all levels of JSC is presented. This plan was developed to allow us to meet head-on the responsibilities and challenges we have today while assuring that we are well prepared to meet the opportunities and challenges of tomorrow. The JSC strategy is closely aligned with the overall strategic direction currently being defined by NASA. One of our major goals was to keep our plan and process tightly focused but flexible enough so that as our national interests in space exploration evolve, so can JSC.

The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand: a) the variety of actions taken; b) the limitations of actions available to water managers; and c) the effectiveness of actions taken to date. Time permitting, we briefly present the results of 3 in-depth case studies of drought response and current perception of preparedness with respect to future drought and climate change among urban water system managers. We examine the role of governance, system connectivity, public perceptions and other factors in driving decision making and outcomes.

Fast and slow transitions in frontal ensemble activity during flexible sensorimotor behavior.

PubMed

Siniscalchi, Michael J; Phoumthipphavong, Victoria; Ali, Farhan; Lozano, Marc; Kwan, Alex C

2016-09-01

The ability to shift between repetitive and goal-directed actions is a hallmark of cognitive control. Previous studies have reported that adaptive shifts in behavior are accompanied by changes of neural activity in frontal cortex. However, neural and behavioral adaptations can occur at multiple time scales, and their relationship remains poorly defined. Here we developed an adaptive sensorimotor decision-making task for head-fixed mice, requiring them to shift flexibly between multiple auditory-motor mappings. Two-photon calcium imaging of secondary motor cortex (M2) revealed different ensemble activity states for each mapping. When adapting to a conditional mapping, transitions in ensemble activity were abrupt and occurred before the recovery of behavioral performance. By contrast, gradual and delayed transitions accompanied shifts toward repetitive responding. These results demonstrate distinct ensemble signatures associated with the start versus end of sensory-guided behavior and suggest that M2 leads in engaging goal-directed response strategies that require sensorimotor associations.

An FPGA- Based General-Purpose Data Acquisition Controller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robson, C. C. W.; Bousselham, A.; Bohm

2006-08-01

System development in advanced FPGAs allows considerable flexibility, both during development and in production use. A mixed firmware/software solution allows the developer to choose what shall be done in firmware or software, and to make that decision late in the process. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of increased complexity. We have designed a modular development framework to help to overcome these issues of increased complexity. This framework comprises a generic controller that can be adapted for different systems by simply changing the software or firmware parts. The controller can use both soft and hard processors, with or without an RTOS, based on the demands of the system to be developed. The resulting system uses the Internet for both control and data acquisition. In our studies we developed the embedded system in a Xilinx Virtex-II Pro FPGA, where we used both PowerPC and MicroBlaze cores, http, Java, and LabView for control and communication, together with the MicroC/OS-II and OSE operating systems

The Importance of Moral Construal: Moral versus Non-Moral Construal Elicits Faster, More Extreme, Universal Evaluations of the Same Actions

PubMed Central

Van Bavel, Jay J.; Packer, Dominic J.; Haas, Ingrid Johnsen; Cunningham, William A.

2012-01-01

Over the past decade, intuitionist models of morality have challenged the view that moral reasoning is the sole or even primary means by which moral judgments are made. Rather, intuitionist models posit that certain situations automatically elicit moral intuitions, which guide moral judgments. We present three experiments showing that evaluations are also susceptible to the influence of moral versus non-moral construal. We had participants make moral evaluations (rating whether actions were morally good or bad) or non-moral evaluations (rating whether actions were pragmatically or hedonically good or bad) of a wide variety of actions. As predicted, moral evaluations were faster, more extreme, and more strongly associated with universal prescriptions—the belief that absolutely nobody or everybody should engage in an action—than non-moral (pragmatic or hedonic) evaluations of the same actions. Further, we show that people are capable of flexibly shifting from moral to non-moral evaluations on a trial-by-trial basis. Taken together, these experiments provide evidence that moral versus non-moral construal has an important influence on evaluation and suggests that effects of construal are highly flexible. We discuss the implications of these experiments for models of moral judgment and decision-making. PMID:23209557

Improving decision making in crisis.

PubMed

Higgins, Guy; Freedman, Jennifer

2013-01-01

The most critical activity during emergencies or crises is making decisions about what to do next. This paper provides insights into the challenges that people face in making decisions at any time, but particularly during emergencies and crises. It also introduces the reader to the concept of different sense-making/decision-making domains, the human behaviours that can adversely affect decision making - decision derailers - and ways in which emergency responders can leverage this knowledge to make better decisions. While the literature on decision making is extensive, this paper is focused on those aspects that apply particularly to decision making in emergencies or times of crisis.

"Flexibility", Community and Making Parents Responsible

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGowan, Wayne S.

2005-01-01

This article draws on Foucault's concept of governmentality to explore how recent political moves to legalise "flexibility" mobilises education authorities to make "community" a technical means of achieving the political objective of schooling the child. I argue that "flexibility" in this sense is a neo-liberal strategy that shifts relations…

U-Form vs. M-Form: How to Understand Decision Autonomy Under Healthcare Decentralization?

PubMed Central

Bustamante, Arturo Vargas

2016-01-01

For more than three decades healthcare decentralization has been promoted in developing countries as a way of improving the financing and delivery of public healthcare. Decision autonomy under healthcare decentralization would determine the role and scope of responsibility of local authorities. Jalal Mohammed, Nicola North, and Toni Ashton analyze decision autonomy within decentralized services in Fiji. They conclude that the narrow decision space allowed to local entities might have limited the benefits of decentralization on users and providers. To discuss the costs and benefits of healthcare decentralization this paper uses the U-form and M-form typology to further illustrate the role of decision autonomy under healthcare decentralization. This paper argues that when evaluating healthcare decentralization, it is important to determine whether the benefits from decentralization are greater than its costs. The U-form and M-form framework is proposed as a useful typology to evaluate different types of institutional arrangements under healthcare decentralization. Under this model, the more decentralized organizational form (M-form) is superior if the benefits from flexibility exceed the costs of duplication and the more centralized organizational form (U-form) is superior if the savings from economies of scale outweigh the costly decision-making process from the center to the regions. Budgetary and financial autonomy and effective mechanisms to maintain local governments accountable for their spending behavior are key decision autonomy variables that could sway the cost-benefit analysis of healthcare decentralization. PMID:27694684

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of new end uses in recycled water schemes.

PubMed

Chen, Zhuo; Ngo, Huu Hao; Guo, Wenshan; Lim, Richard; Wang, Xiaochang C; O'Halloran, Kelly; Listowski, Andrzej; Corby, Nigel; Miechel, Clayton

2014-02-01

Nowadays, recycled water has provided sufficient flexibility to satisfy short-term freshwater needs and increase the reliability of long-term water supplies in many water scarce areas, which becomes an essential component of integrated water resources management. However, the current applications of recycled water are still quite limited that are mainly associated with non-potable purposes such as irrigation, industrial uses, toilet flushing and car washing. There is a large potential to exploit and develop new end uses of recycled water in both urban and rural areas. This can greatly contribute to freshwater savings, wastewater reduction and water sustainability. Consequently, the paper identified the potentials for the development of three recycled water new end uses, household laundry, livestock feeding and servicing, and swimming pool, in future water use market. To validate the strengths of these new applications, a conceptual decision analytic framework was proposed. This can be able to facilitate the optional management strategy selection process and thereafter provide guidance on the future end use studies within a larger context of the community, processes, and models in decision-making. Moreover, as complex evaluation criteria were selected and taken into account to narrow down the multiple management alternatives, the methodology can successfully add transparency, objectivity and comprehensiveness to the assessment. Meanwhile, the proposed approach could also allow flexibility to adapt to particular circumstances of each case under study. © 2013.

Conformance Testing: Measurement Decision Rules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mimbs, Scott M.

2010-01-01

The goal of a Quality Management System (QMS) as specified in ISO 9001 and AS9100 is to provide assurance to the customer that end products meet specifications. Measuring devices, often called measuring and test equipment (MTE), are used to provide the evidence of product conformity to specified requirements. Unfortunately, processes that employ MTE can become a weak link to the overall QMS if proper attention is not given to the measurement process design, capability, and implementation. Documented "decision rules" establish the requirements to ensure measurement processes provide the measurement data that supports the needs of the QMS. Measurement data are used to make the decisions that impact all areas of technology. Whether measurements support research, design, production, or maintenance, ensuring the data supports the decision is crucial. Measurement data quality can be critical to the resulting consequences of measurement-based decisions. Historically, most industries required simplistic, one-size-fits-all decision rules for measurements. One-size-fits-all rules in some cases are not rigorous enough to provide adequate measurement results, while in other cases are overly conservative and too costly to implement. Ideally, decision rules should be rigorous enough to match the criticality of the parameter being measured, while being flexible enough to be cost effective. The goal of a decision rule is to ensure that measurement processes provide data with a sufficient level of quality to support the decisions being made - no more, no less. This paper discusses the basic concepts of providing measurement-based evidence that end products meet specifications. Although relevant to all measurement-based conformance tests, the target audience is the MTE end-user, which is anyone using MTE other than calibration service providers. Topics include measurement fundamentals, the associated decision risks, verifying conformance to specifications, and basic measurement decisions rules.

Decision-making in nursing practice: An integrative literature review.

PubMed

Nibbelink, Christine W; Brewer, Barbara B

2018-03-01

To identify and summarise factors and processes related to registered nurses' patient care decision-making in medical-surgical environments. A secondary goal of this literature review was to determine whether medical-surgical decision-making literature included factors that appeared to be similar to concepts and factors in naturalistic decision making (NDM). Decision-making in acute care nursing requires an evaluation of many complex factors. While decision-making research in acute care nursing is prevalent, errors in decision-making continue to lead to poor patient outcomes. Naturalistic decision making may provide a framework for further exploring decision-making in acute care nursing practice. A better understanding of the literature is needed to guide future research to more effectively support acute care nurse decision-making. PubMed and CINAHL databases were searched, and research meeting criteria was included. Data were identified from all included articles, and themes were developed based on these data. Key findings in this review include nursing experience and associated factors; organisation and unit culture influences on decision-making; education; understanding patient status; situation awareness; and autonomy. Acute care nurses employ a variety of decision-making factors and processes and informally identify experienced nurses to be important resources for decision-making. Incorporation of evidence into acute care nursing practice continues to be a struggle for acute care nurses. This review indicates that naturalistic decision making may be applicable to decision-making nursing research. Experienced nurses bring a broad range of previous patient encounters to their practice influencing their intuitive, unconscious processes which facilitates decision-making. Using naturalistic decision making as a conceptual framework to guide research may help with understanding how to better support less experienced nurses' decision-making for enhanced patient outcomes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shared Decision-Making in the Management of Congenital Vascular Malformations.

PubMed

Horbach, Sophie E R; Ubbink, Dirk T; Stubenrouch, Fabienne E; Koelemay, Mark J W; van der Vleuten, Carine J M; Verhoeven, Bas H; Reekers, Jim A; Schultze Kool, Leo J; van der Horst, Chantal M A M

2017-03-01

In shared decision-making, clinicians and patients arrive at a joint treatment decision, by incorporating best available evidence and the patients' personal values and preferences. Little is known about the role of shared decision-making in managing patients with congenital vascular malformations, for which preference-sensitive decision-making seems obvious. The authors investigated preferences regarding decision-making and current shared decision-making behavior during physician-patient encounters. In two Dutch university hospitals, adults and children with congenital vascular malformations facing a treatment-related decision were enrolled. Before the consultation, patients (or parents of children) expressed their preference regarding decision-making (Control Preferences Scale). Afterward, participants completed shared decision-making-specific questionnaires (nine-item Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire, CollaboRATE, and satisfaction), and physicians completed the Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire-Physician questionnaire. Consultations were audiotaped and patient involvement was scored by two independent researchers using the five-item Observing Patient Involvement instrument. All questionnaire results were expressed on a scale of 0 to 100 (optimum shared decision-making). Fifty-five participants (24 parents and 31 adult patients) were included. Two-thirds preferred the shared decision-making approach (Control Preferences Scale). Objective five-item Observing Patient Involvement scores were low (mean ± SD, 31 ± 15), whereas patient and physician Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire scores were high, with means of 68 ± 18 and 68 ± 19, respectively. The median CollaboRATE score was 93. There was no clear relationship between shared decision-making and satisfaction scores. Although adults and parents of children with vascular malformations express a strong desire for shared decision-making, objective shared decision-making behavior is still lacking, most likely because of poor awareness of the shared decision-making concept among patients, parents, and physicians. To improve shared decision-making practice, targeted interventions (e.g., decision aids, staff training) are essential.

Decision Making on the Labor and Delivery Unit: An Investigation of Influencing Factors.

PubMed

Gregory, Megan E; Sonesh, Shirley C; Feitosa, Jennifer; Benishek, Lauren E; Hughes, Ashley M; Salas, Eduardo

2017-09-01

Objective The aim of this study was to describe the relationship between negative affect (NA), decision-making style, time stress, and decision quality in health care. Background Health care providers must often make swift, high-stakes decisions. Influencing factors of the decision-making process in this context have been understudied. Method Within a sample of labor and delivery nurses, physicians, and allied personnel, we used self-report measures to examine the impact of trait factors, including NA, decision-making style, and perceived time stress, on decision quality in a situational judgment test (Study 1). In Study 2, we observed the influence of state NA, state decision-making style, state time stress, and their relationship with decision quality on real clinical decisions. Results In Study 1, we found that trait NA significantly predicted avoidant decision-making style. Furthermore, those who were higher on trait time stress and trait avoidant decision-making style exhibited poorer decisions. In Study 2, we observed associations between state NA with state avoidant and analytical decision-making styles. We also observed that these decision-making styles, when considered in tandem with time stress, were influential in predicting clinical decision quality. Conclusion NA predicts some decision-making styles, and decision-making style can affect decision quality under time stress. This is particularly true for state factors. Application Individual differences, such as affect and decision-making style, should be considered during selection. Training to reduce time stress perceptions should be provided.

Barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a paediatric hospital: A descriptive study.

PubMed

Boland, Laura; McIsaac, Daniel I; Lawson, Margaret L

2016-04-01

To explore multiple stakeholders' perceived barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a tertiary paediatric hospital. An interpretive descriptive qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and interviews to examine senior hospital administrators', clinicians', parents' and youths' perceived barriers to and facilitators of shared decision making and decision support implementation. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Fifty-seven stakeholders participated. Six barrier and facilitator themes emerged. The main barrier was gaps in stakeholders' knowledge of shared decision making and decision support. Facilitators included compatibility between shared decision making and the hospital's culture and ideal practices, perceptions of positive patient and family outcomes associated with shared decision making, and positive attitudes regarding shared decision making and decision support. However, youth attitudes regarding the necessity and usefulness of a decision support program were a barrier. Two themes were both a barrier and a facilitator. First, stakeholder groups were uncertain which clinical situations are suitable for shared decision making (eg, new diagnoses, chronic illnesses, complex decisions or urgent decisions). Second, the clinical process may be hindered if shared decision making and decision support decrease efficiency and workflow; however, shared decision making may reduce repeat visits and save time over the long term. Specific knowledge translation strategies that improve shared decision making knowledge and match specific barriers identified by each stakeholder group may be required to promote successful shared decision making and decision support implementation in the authors' paediatric hospital.

Risk management with substitution options: Valuing flexibility in small-scale energy systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Karl Eric

Several features of small-scale energy systems make them more easily adapted to a changing operating environment than large centralized designs. This flexibility is often manifested as the ability to substitute inputs. This research explores the value of this substitution flexibility and the marginal value of becoming a "little more flexible" in the context of real project investment in developing countries. The elasticity of substitution is proposed as a stylized measure of flexibility and a choice variable. A flexible alternative (elasticity > 0) can be thought of as holding a fixed-proportions "nflexible" asset plus a sequence of exchange options---the option to move to another feasible "recipe" each period. Substitutability derives value from following a contour of anticipated variations and from responding to new information. Substitutability value, a "cost savings option", increases with elasticity and price risk. However, the required premium to incrementally increase flexibility can in some cases decrease with an increase in risk. Variance is not always a measure of risk. Tools from stochastic dominance are newly applied to real options with convex payoffs to correct some misperceptions and clarify many common modeling situations that meet the criteria for increased variance to imply increased risk. The behavior of the cost savings option is explored subject to a stochastic input price process. At the point where costs are identical for all alternatives, the stochastic process for cost savings becomes deterministic, with savings directly proportional to elasticity of substitution and price variance. The option is also formulated as a derivative security via dynamic programming. The partial differential equation is solved for the special case of Cobb-Douglas (elasticity = 1) (also shown are linear (infinite elasticity), Leontief (elasticity = 0)). Risk aversion is insufficient to prefer a more flexible alternative with the same expected value. Intertemporal links convert the sequence of independent options to a single compound option and require an expansion of the flexibility concept. Additional options increase the value of the project but generally decrease flexibility value. The framework is applied to case study in India: an urban industry electricity strategy decision with reliability risk.

Decision-making on shared sanitation in the informal settlements of Kisumu, Kenya.

PubMed

Simiyu, Sheillah; Swilling, Mark; Cairncross, Sandy

2017-10-01

Unlike most quantitative studies that investigate decision-making on investing in sanitation, this study adopted a qualitative approach to investigate decision-making on shared sanitation in the informal settlements of Kisumu city, in Kenya. Using a grounded theory approach, landlords and tenants were interviewed to identify sanitation decisions, individuals involved in decision-making and factors influencing decision-making. The results indicate that the main sanitation decisions are on investment, emptying, repair and cleaning. Landlords make investment, emptying and repair decisions, while tenants make cleaning decisions. Absentee landlords are less involved in most decision-making compared to live-in landlords, who rarely consult tenants in decision-making. Tenants make decisions after consultations with a third party and often collectively with other tenants. Sanitation interventions in informal settlements should thus, target landlords and tenants, with investment efforts being directed at landlords and maintenance efforts at tenants.

Developing Flexible, Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Systems for Multiscale Analysis in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.; Sharma, A.; Byun, K.; Hanson, Z.

2016-12-01

Physically based hydrologic modeling of surface and groundwater resources that can be flexibly and efficiently applied to support water resources policy/planning/management decisions at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales are greatly needed in the Midwest, where stakeholder access to such tools is currently a fundamental barrier to basic climate change assessment and adaptation efforts, and also the co-production of useful products to support detailed decision making. Based on earlier pilot studies in the Pacific Northwest Region, we are currently assembling a suite of end-to-end tools and resources to support various kinds of water resources planning and management applications across the region. One of the key aspects of these integrated tools is that the user community can access gridded products at any point along the end-to-end chain of models, looking backwards in time about 100 years (1915-2015), and forwards in time about 85 years using CMIP5 climate model projections. The integrated model is composed of historical and projected future meteorological data based on station observations and statistical and dynamically downscaled climate model output respectively. These gridded meteorological data sets serve as forcing data for the macro-scale VIC hydrologic model implemented over the Midwest at 1/16 degree resolution. High-resolution climate model (4km WRF) output provides inputs for the analyses of urban impacts, hydrologic extremes, agricultural impacts, and impacts to the Great Lakes. Groundwater recharge estimated by the surface water model provides input data for fine-scale and macro-scale groundwater models needed for specific applications. To highlight the multi-scale use of the integrated models in support of co-production of scientific information for decision making, we briefly describe three current case studies addressing different spatial scales of analysis: 1) Effects of climate change on the water balance of the Great Lakes, 2) Future hydropower resources in the St. Joseph River basin, 3) Effects of climate change on carbon cycling in small lakes in the Northern Highland Lakes District.

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Decision Making and Electrodermal Activity].

PubMed

Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka

2016-08-01

Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process.

What is a “good” treatment decision?: Decisional control, knowledge, treatment decision-making, and quality of life in men with clinically localized prostate cancer

PubMed Central

Orom, Heather; Biddle, Caitlin; Underwood, Willie; Nelson, Christian J.; Homish, D. Lynn

2016-01-01

Objective We explored whether active patient involvement in decision making and greater patient knowledge are associated with better treatment decision making experiences and better quality of life (QOL) among men with clinically localized prostate cancer. Localized prostate cancer treatment decision-making is an advantageous model for studying patient treatment decision-making dynamics as there are multiple treatment options and a lack of empirical evidence to recommend one over the other; consequently, it is recommended that patients be fully involved in making the decision. Methods Men with newly diagnosed clinically localized prostate cancer (N=1529) completed measures of decisional control, prostate cancer knowledge, and their decision-making experience (decisional conflict, and decision-making satisfaction and difficulty) shortly after they made their treatment decision. Prostate cancer-specific QOL was assessed 6-months after treatment. Results More active involvement in decision making and greater knowledge were associated with lower decisional conflict and higher decision-making satisfaction, but greater decision-making difficulty. An interaction between decisional control and knowledge revealed that greater knowledge was only associated with greater difficulty for men actively involved in making the decision (67% of sample). Greater knowledge, but not decisional control predicted better QOL 6-months post-treatment. Conclusion Although men who are actively involved in decision making and more knowledgeable may make more informed decisions, they could benefit from decisional support (e.g., decision-making aids, emotional support from providers, strategies for reducing emotional distress) to make the process easier. Men who were more knowledgeable about prostate cancer and treatment side effects at the time they made their treatment decision may have appraised their QOL as higher because they had realistic expectations about side effects. PMID:26957566

What Is a "Good" Treatment Decision? Decisional Control, Knowledge, Treatment Decision Making, and Quality of Life in Men with Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Orom, Heather; Biddle, Caitlin; Underwood, Willie; Nelson, Christian J; Homish, D Lynn

2016-08-01

We explored whether active patient involvement in decision making and greater patient knowledge are associated with better treatment decision-making experiences and better quality of life (QOL) among men with clinically localized prostate cancer. Localized prostate cancer treatment decision making is an advantageous model for studying patient treatment decision-making dynamics because there are multiple treatment options and a lack of empirical evidence to recommend one over the other; consequently, it is recommended that patients be fully involved in making the decision. Men with newly diagnosed clinically localized prostate cancer (N = 1529) completed measures of decisional control, prostate cancer knowledge, and decision-making experiences (decisional conflict and decision-making satisfaction and difficulty) shortly after they made their treatment decision. Prostate cancer-specific QOL was assessed at 6 months after treatment. More active involvement in decision making and greater knowledge were associated with lower decisional conflict and higher decision-making satisfaction but greater decision-making difficulty. An interaction between decisional control and knowledge revealed that greater knowledge was only associated with greater difficulty for men actively involved in making the decision (67% of sample). Greater knowledge, but not decisional control, predicted better QOL 6 months after treatment. Although men who are actively involved in decision making and more knowledgeable may make more informed decisions, they could benefit from decisional support (e.g., decision-making aids, emotional support from providers, strategies for reducing emotional distress) to make the process easier. Men who were more knowledgeable about prostate cancer and treatment side effects at the time that they made their treatment decision may have appraised their QOL as higher because they had realistic expectations about side effects. © The Author(s) 2016.

HTA – Algorithm or Process?

PubMed Central

Culyer, Anthony J.

2016-01-01

Daniels, Porteny and Urrutia et al make a good case for the idea that that public decisions ought to be made not only "in the light of" evidence but also "on the basis of" budget impact, financial protection and equity. Health technology assessment (HTA) should, they say, be accordingly expanded to consider matters additional to safety and cost-effectiveness. They also complain that most HTA reports fail to develop ethical arguments and generally do not even mention ethical issues. This comment argues that some of these defects are more apparent than real and are not inherent in HTA – as distinct from being common characteristics found in poorly conducted HTAs. More generally, HTA does not need "extension" since (1) ethical issues are already embedded in HTA processes, not least in their scoping phases, and (2) HTA processes are already sufficiently flexible to accommodate evidence about a wide range of factors, and will not need fundamental change in order to accommodate the new forms of decision-relevant evidence about distributional impact and financial protection that are now starting to emerge. HTA and related techniques are there to support decision-makers who have authority to make decisions. Analysts like us are there to support and advise them (and not to assume the responsibilities for which they, and not we, are accountable). The required quality in HTA then becomes its effectiveness as a means of addressing the issues of concern to decision-makers. What is also required is adherence by competent analysts to a standard template of good analytical practice. The competencies include not merely those of the usual disciplines (particularly biostatistics, cognitive psychology, health economics, epidemiology, and ethics) but also the imaginative and interpersonal skills for exploring the "real" question behind the decision-maker’s brief (actual or postulated) and eliciting the social values that necessarily pervade the entire analysis. The product of such exploration defines the authoritative scope of an HTA. PMID:27694664

Comparison of two multi-criteria decision techniques for eliciting treatment preferences in people with neurological disorders.

PubMed

Ijzerman, Maarten J; van Til, Janine A; Snoek, Govert J

2008-12-01

To present and compare two multi-criteria decision techniques (analytic hierarchy process [AHP] and conjoint analysis [CA]) for eliciting preferences in patients with cervical spinal cord injury (SCI) who are eligible for surgical augmentation of hand function, either with or without implantation of a neuroprosthesis. The methods were compared in respect to attribute weights, overall preference, and practical experiences. Two previously designed and administered multi-criteria decision surveys in patients with SCI were compared and further analysed. Attributes and their weights in the AHP experiment were determined by an expert panel, followed by determination of the weights in the patient group. Attributes for the CA were selected and validated using an expert panel, piloted in six patients with SCI and subsequently administered to the same group of patients as participated in the AHP experiment. Both experiments showed the importance of non-outcome-related factors such as inpatient stay and number of surgical procedures. In particular, patients were less concerned with clinical outcomes in actual decision making. Overall preference in both the AHP and CA was in favor of tendon reconstruction (0.6 vs 0.4 for neuroprosthetic implantation). Both methods were easy to apply, but AHP was less easily explained and understood. Both the AHP and CA methods produced similar outcomes, which may have been caused by the obvious preferences of patients. CA may be preferred because of the holistic approach of considering all treatment attributes simultaneously and, hence, its power in simulating real market decisions. On the other hand, the AHP method is preferred as a hands-on, easy-to-implement task with immediate feedback to the respondent. This flexibility allows AHP to be used in shared decision making. However, the way the technique is composed results in many inconsistencies. Patients preferred CA but complained about the number of choice tasks.

Management of complex knowledge in planning for sustainable development: The use of multi-criteria decision aids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kain, Jaan-Henrik; Soederberg, Henriette

2008-01-15

The vision of sustainable development entails new and complex planning situations, confronting local policy makers with changing political conditions, different content in decision making and planning and new working methods. Moreover, the call for sustainable development has been a major driving force towards an increasingly multi-stakeholder planning system. This situation requires competence in working in, and managing, groups of actors, including not only experts and project owners but also other categories of stakeholders. Among other qualities, such competence requires a working strategy aimed at integrating various, and sometimes incommensurable, forms of knowledge to construct a relevant and valid knowledge basemore » prior to decision making. Consequently, there lies great potential in methods that facilitate the evaluation of strategies for infrastructural development across multiple knowledge areas, so-called multi-criteria decision aids (MCDAs). In the present article, observations from six case studies are discussed, where the common denominators are infrastructural planning, multi-stakeholder participation and the use of MCDAs as interactive decision support. Three MCDAs are discussed - NAIADE, SCA and STRAD - with an emphasis on how they function in their procedural context. Accordingly, this is not an analysis of MCDA algorithms, of software programming aspects or of MCDAs as context-independent 'decision machines'-the focus is on MCDAs as actor systems, not as expert systems. The analysis is carried out across four main themes: (a) symmetrical management of different forms of knowledge; (b) management of heterogeneity, pluralism and conflict; (c) functionality and ease of use; and (d) transparency and trust. It shows that STRAD, by far, seems to be the most useful MCDA in interactive settings. NAIADE and SCA are roughly equivalent but have their strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Moreover, it was found that some MCDA issues require further attention, i.e., regarding transparency and understandability; qualitative/quantitative knowledge input; switching between different modes of weighting; software flexibility; as well as graphic and user interfaces.« less

Barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a paediatric hospital: A descriptive study

PubMed Central

Boland, Laura; McIsaac, Daniel I; Lawson, Margaret L

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To explore multiple stakeholders’ perceived barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a tertiary paediatric hospital. METHODS: An interpretive descriptive qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and interviews to examine senior hospital administrators’, clinicians’, parents’ and youths’ perceived barriers to and facilitators of shared decision making and decision support implementation. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Fifty-seven stakeholders participated. Six barrier and facilitator themes emerged. The main barrier was gaps in stakeholders’ knowledge of shared decision making and decision support. Facilitators included compatibility between shared decision making and the hospital’s culture and ideal practices, perceptions of positive patient and family outcomes associated with shared decision making, and positive attitudes regarding shared decision making and decision support. However, youth attitudes regarding the necessity and usefulness of a decision support program were a barrier. Two themes were both a barrier and a facilitator. First, stakeholder groups were uncertain which clinical situations are suitable for shared decision making (eg, new diagnoses, chronic illnesses, complex decisions or urgent decisions). Second, the clinical process may be hindered if shared decision making and decision support decrease efficiency and workflow; however, shared decision making may reduce repeat visits and save time over the long term. CONCLUSIONS: Specific knowledge translation strategies that improve shared decision making knowledge and match specific barriers identified by each stakeholder group may be required to promote successful shared decision making and decision support implementation in the authors’ paediatric hospital. PMID:27398058

Capacity, pressure, demand, and flow: A conceptual framework for analyzing ecosystem service provision and delivery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villamagna, Amy M.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Bennett, Elena M.

2013-01-01

Ecosystem services provide an instinctive way to understand the trade-offs associated with natural resource management. However, despite their apparent usefulness, several hurdles have prevented ecosystem services from becoming deeply embedded in environmental decision-making. Ecosystem service studies vary widely in focal services, geographic extent, and in methods for defining and measuring services. Dissent among scientists on basic terminology and approaches to evaluating ecosystem services create difficulties for those trying to incorporate ecosystem services into decision-making. To facilitate clearer comparison among recent studies, we provide a synthesis of common terminology and explain a rationale and framework for distinguishing among the components of ecosystem service delivery, including: an ecosystem's capacity to produce services; ecological pressures that interfere with an ecosystem's ability to provide the service; societal demand for the service; and flow of the service to people. We discuss how interpretation and measurement of these four components can differ among provisioning, regulating, and cultural services. Our flexible framework treats service capacity, ecological pressure, demand, and flow as separate but interactive entities to improve our ability to evaluate the sustainability of service provision and to help guide management decisions. We consider ecosystem service provision to be sustainable when demand is met without decreasing capacity for future provision of that service or causing undesirable declines in other services. When ecosystem service demand exceeds ecosystem capacity to provide services, society can choose to enhance natural capacity, decrease demand and/or ecological pressure, or invest in a technological substitute. Because regulating services are frequently overlooked in environmental assessments, we provide a more detailed examination of regulating services and propose a novel method for quantifying the flow of regulating services based on estimates of ecological work. We anticipate that our synthesis and framework will reduce inconsistency and facilitate coherence across analyses of ecosystem services, thereby increasing their utility in environmental decision-making.

Distinction between Externally vs. Internally Guided Decision-Making: Operational Differences, Meta-Analytical Comparisons and Their Theoretical Implications

PubMed Central

Nakao, Takashi; Ohira, Hideki; Northoff, Georg

2012-01-01

Most experimental studies of decision-making have specifically examined situations in which a single less-predictable correct answer exists (externally guided decision-making under uncertainty). Along with such externally guided decision-making, there are instances of decision-making in which no correct answer based on external circumstances is available for the subject (internally guided decision-making). Such decisions are usually made in the context of moral decision-making as well as in preference judgment, where the answer depends on the subject’s own, i.e., internal, preferences rather than on external, i.e., circumstantial, criteria. The neuronal and psychological mechanisms that allow guidance of decisions based on more internally oriented criteria in the absence of external ones remain unclear. This study was undertaken to compare decision-making of these two kinds empirically and theoretically. First, we reviewed studies of decision-making to clarify experimental–operational differences between externally guided and internally guided decision-making. Second, using multi-level kernel density analysis, a whole-brain-based quantitative meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies was performed. Our meta-analysis revealed that the neural network used predominantly for internally guided decision-making differs from that for externally guided decision-making under uncertainty. This result suggests that studying only externally guided decision-making under uncertainty is insufficient to account for decision-making processes in the brain. Finally, based on the review and results of the meta-analysis, we discuss the differences and relations between decision-making of these two types in terms of their operational, neuronal, and theoretical characteristics. PMID:22403525

Flexible High Speed Codec (FHSC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segallis, G. P.; Wernlund, J. V.

1991-01-01

The ongoing NASA/Harris Flexible High Speed Codec (FHSC) program is described. The program objectives are to design and build an encoder decoder that allows operation in either burst or continuous modes at data rates of up to 300 megabits per second. The decoder handles both hard and soft decision decoding and can switch between modes on a burst by burst basis. Bandspreading is low since the code rate is greater than or equal to 7/8. The encoder and a hard decision decoder fit on a single application specific integrated circuit (ASIC) chip. A soft decision applique is implemented using 300 K emitter coupled logic (ECL) which can be easily translated to an ECL gate array.

U-Form vs. M-Form: How to Understand Decision Autonomy Under Healthcare Decentralization? Comment on "Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis".

PubMed

Bustamante, Arturo Vargas

2016-06-07

For more than three decades healthcare decentralization has been promoted in developing countries as a way of improving the financing and delivery of public healthcare. Decision autonomy under healthcare decentralization would determine the role and scope of responsibility of local authorities. Jalal Mohammed, Nicola North, and Toni Ashton analyze decision autonomy within decentralized services in Fiji. They conclude that the narrow decision space allowed to local entities might have limited the benefits of decentralization on users and providers. To discuss the costs and benefits of healthcare decentralization this paper uses the U-form and M-form typology to further illustrate the role of decision autonomy under healthcare decentralization. This paper argues that when evaluating healthcare decentralization, it is important to determine whether the benefits from decentralization are greater than its costs. The U-form and M-form framework is proposed as a useful typology to evaluate different types of institutional arrangements under healthcare decentralization. Under this model, the more decentralized organizational form (M-form) is superior if the benefits from flexibility exceed the costs of duplication and the more centralized organizational form (U-form) is superior if the savings from economies of scale outweigh the costly decision-making process from the center to the regions. Budgetary and financial autonomy and effective mechanisms to maintain local governments accountable for their spending behavior are key decision autonomy variables that could sway the cost-benefit analysis of healthcare decentralization. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

One Way of Thinking About Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dalis, Gus T.; Strasser, Ben B.

The authors present the DALSTRA model of decision making, a descriptive statement of ways individuals or groups respond to different kinds of decision-making problems they encounter. Decision making is viewed in two phases: the decision-making antecedents (whether to decide, how to decide) and the modes of decision making (Chance/Impulse,…

The role of adaptive management as an operational approach for resource management agencies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, B.L.

1999-01-01

In making resource management decisions, agencies use a variety of approaches that involve different levels of political concern, historical precedence, data analyses, and evaluation. Traditional decision-making approaches have often failed to achieve objectives for complex problems in large systems, such as the Everglades or the Colorado River. I contend that adaptive management is the best approach available to agencies for addressing this type of complex problem, although its success has been limited thus far. Traditional decision-making approaches have been fairly successful at addressing relatively straightforward problems in small, replicated systems, such as management of trout in small streams or pulp production in forests. However, this success may be jeopardized as more users place increasing demands on these systems. Adaptive management has received little attention from agencies for addressing problems in small-scale systems, but I suggest that it may be a useful approach for creating a holistic view of common problems and developing guidelines that can then be used in simpler, more traditional approaches to management. Although adaptive management may be more expensive to initiate than traditional approaches, it may be less expensive in the long run if it leads to more effective management. The overall goal of adaptive management is not to maintain an optimal condition of the resource, but to develop an optimal management capacity. This is accomplished by maintaining ecological resilience that allows the system to react to inevitable stresses, and generating flexibility in institutions and stakeholders that allows managers to react when conditions change. The result is that, rather than managing for a single, optimal state, we manage within a range of acceptable outcomes while avoiding catastrophes and irreversible negative effects. Copyright ?? 1999 by The Resilience Alliance.

Neural correlates of executive functions in patients with obesity.

PubMed

Ho, Ming-Chou; Chen, Vincent Chin-Hung; Chao, Seh-Huang; Fang, Ching-Tzu; Liu, Yi-Chun; Weng, Jun-Cheng

2018-01-01

Obesity is one of the most challenging problems in human health and is recognized as an important risk factor for many chronic diseases. It remains unclear how the neural systems (e.g., the mesolimbic "reward" and the prefrontal "control" neural systems) are correlated with patients' executive function (EF), conceptualized as the integration of "cool" EF and "hot" EF. "Cool" EF refers to relatively abstract, non-affective operations such as inhibitory control and mental flexibility. "Hot" EF refers to motivationally significant affective operations such as affective decision-making. We tried to find the correlation between structural and functional neuroimaging indices and EF in obese patients. The study population comprised seventeen patients with obesity (seven males and 10 females, BMI = 37.99 ± 5.40, age = 31.82 ± 8.75 year-old) preparing to undergo bariatric surgery. We used noninvasive diffusion tensor imaging, generalized q-sampling imaging, and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine the neural correlations between structural and functional neuroimaging indices and EF performances in patients with obesity. We reported that many brain areas are correlated to the patients' EF performances. More interestingly, some correlations may implicate the possible associations of EF and the incentive motivational effects of food. The neural correlation between the left precuneus and middle occipital gyrus and inhibitory control may suggest that patients with a better ability to detect appetitive food may have worse inhibitory control. Also, the neural correlation between the superior frontal blade and affective decision-making may suggest that patients' affective decision-making may be associated with the incentive motivational effects of food. Our results provide evidence suggesting neural correlates of EF in patients with obesity.

The financing gaps framework: using need, potential spending and expected spending to allocate development assistance for health

PubMed Central

Haakenstad, Annie; Templin, Tara; Lim, Stephen; Bump, Jesse B; Dieleman, Joseph

2018-01-01

Abstract As growth in development assistance for health levels off, development assistance partners must make allocation decisions within tighter budget constraints. Furthermore, with the advent of comprehensive and comparable burden of disease and health financing estimates, empirical evidence can increasingly be used to direct funding to those most in need. In our ‘financing gaps framework’, we propose a new approach for harnessing information to make decisions about health aid. The framework was designed to be forward-looking, goal-oriented, versatile and customizable to a range of organizational contexts and health aims. Our framework brings together expected health spending, potential health spending and spending need, to orient financing decisions around international health targets. As an example of how the framework could be applied, we develop a case study, focused on global goals for child health. The case study harnesses data from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study, Financing Global Health 2015, the WHO Global Health Observatory and National Health Accounts. Funding flows are tied to progress toward the Sustainable Development Goal’s target for reductions in under-five mortality. The flexibility and comprehensiveness of our framework makes it adaptable for use by a diverse set of governments, donors, policymakers and other stakeholders. The framework can be adapted to short‐ or long‐run time frames, cross‐country or subnational scales, and to a number of specific health focus areas. Depending on donor preferences, the framework can be deployed to incentivize local investments in health, ensuring the long-term sustainability of health systems in low- and middle-income countries, while also furnishing international support for progress toward global health goals. PMID:29415240

Neuropsychological Predictors of Decision-Making Capacity over 9 Months in Mild-to-Moderate Dementia

PubMed Central

Moye, Jennifer; Karel, Michele J; Gurrera, Ronald J; Azar, Armin R

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND Older adults with dementia may have diminished capacity to make medical treatment decisions. OBJECTIVE To examine rates and neuropsychological predictors of treatment decision making, or consent capacity, among older adults with dementia over 9 months. DESIGN Consent capacity was assessed initially and 9 months later in subjects with and without dementia using a longitudinal repeated measures design. PARTICIPANTS Fifty-three older adults with dementia and 53 similarly aged adults without dementia. MEASUREMENTS A standardized measure MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool-Treatment of 4 legal standards for capacity (Understanding, Appreciation, Reasoning, and Expressing a Choice) and a neuropsychological battery. RESULTS In the dementia group, 9.4% had impaired capacity initially, and 26.4% had impaired capacity at 9 months. Mean scores in the dementia group were impaired relative to controls initially and at 9 months for Understanding (initial t=2.49, P=.01; 9-month t=3.22, P<.01) and Reasoning (initial t=2.18, P=.03; 9-month t=4.77, P<.01). Declining capacity over 9 months was attributable to a further reduction in Reasoning (group × time F=9.44, P=.003). Discriminant function analysis revealed that initial scores on naming, delayed Logical Memory, and Trails B were associated with impaired capacity at 9 months. CONCLUSIONS Some patients with mild-to-moderate dementia develop a clinically relevant impairment of consent capacity within a year. Consent capacity in adults with mild-to-moderate dementia should be reassessed periodically to ensure that it is adequate for each specific informed consent situation. Interventions that maximize Understanding and Reasoning by supporting naming, memory, and flexibility may help to optimize capacity in this patient group. PMID:16423129

Strategic Decision Making Paradigms: A Primer for Senior Leaders

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

decision making . STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING Strategic Change: There are several strategic...influenced by stakeholders outside of the organization. The Ontology of Strategic Decision Making . Strategic decisions are non-routine and involve...Coates USAWC, July 2009 5 The Complexity of Strategic Decision Making Strategic decisions entail “ill-structured,”6 “messy” or

Training in Decision-making Strategies: An approach to enhance students' competence to deal with socio-scientific issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gresch, Helge; Hasselhorn, Marcus; Bögeholz, Susanne

2013-10-01

Dealing with socio-scientific issues in science classes enables students to participate productively in controversial discussions concerning ethical topics, such as sustainable development. In this respect, well-structured decision-making processes are essential for elaborate reasoning. To foster decision-making competence, a computer-based programme was developed that trains secondary school students (grades 11-13) in decision-making strategies. The main research question is: does training students to use these strategies foster decision-making competence? In addition, the influence of meta-decision aids was examined. Students conducted a task analysis to select an appropriate strategy prior to the decision-making process. Hence, the second research question is: does combining decision-making training with a task analysis enhance decision-making competence at a higher rate? To answer these questions, 386 students were tested in a pre-post-follow-up control-group design that included two training groups (decision-making strategies/decision-making strategies combined with a task analysis) and a control group (decision-making with additional ecological information instead of strategic training). An open-ended questionnaire was used to assess decision-making competence in situations related to sustainable development. The decision-making training led to a significant improvement in the post-test and the follow-up, which was administered three months after the training. Long-term effects on the quality of the students' decisions were evident for both training groups. Gains in competence when reflecting upon the decision-making processes of others were found, to a lesser extent, in the training group that received the additional meta-decision training. In conclusion, training in decision-making strategies is a promising approach to deal with socio-scientific issues related to sustainable development.

Shared Decision Making in ICUs: An American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Policy Statement.

PubMed

Kon, Alexander A; Davidson, Judy E; Morrison, Wynne; Danis, Marion; White, Douglas B

2016-01-01

Shared decision making is endorsed by critical care organizations; however, there remains confusion about what shared decision making is, when it should be used, and approaches to promote partnerships in treatment decisions. The purpose of this statement is to define shared decision making, recommend when shared decision making should be used, identify the range of ethically acceptable decision-making models, and present important communication skills. The American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Ethics Committees reviewed empirical research and normative analyses published in peer-reviewed journals to generate recommendations. Recommendations approved by consensus of the full Ethics Committees of American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society were included in the statement. Six recommendations were endorsed: 1) DEFINITION: Shared decision making is a collaborative process that allows patients, or their surrogates, and clinicians to make healthcare decisions together, taking into account the best scientific evidence available, as well as the patient's values, goals, and preferences. 2) Clinicians should engage in a shared decision making process to define overall goals of care (including decisions regarding limiting or withdrawing life-prolonging interventions) and when making major treatment decisions that may be affected by personal values, goals, and preferences. 3) Clinicians should use as their "default" approach a shared decision making process that includes three main elements: information exchange, deliberation, and making a treatment decision. 4) A wide range of decision-making approaches are ethically supportable, including patient- or surrogate-directed and clinician-directed models. Clinicians should tailor the decision-making process based on the preferences of the patient or surrogate. 5) Clinicians should be trained in communication skills. 6) Research is needed to evaluate decision-making strategies. Patient and surrogate preferences for decision-making roles regarding value-laden choices range from preferring to exercise significant authority to ceding such authority to providers. Clinicians should adapt the decision-making model to the needs and preferences of the patient or surrogate.

Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

PubMed

Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

2015-06-01

Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hemispheric-scale wind selection facilitates bar-tailed godwit circum-migration of the Pacific

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gill, Robert E.; Douglas, David C.; Handel, Colleen M.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Hufford, Gary; Piersma, Theunis

2014-01-01

The annual 29 000 km long migration of the bar-tailed godwit, Limosa lapponica baueri, around the Pacific Ocean traverses what is arguably the most complex and seasonally structured atmospheric setting on Earth. Faced with marked variation in wind regimes and storm conditions across oceanic migration corridors, individuals must make critical decisions about when and where to fly during nonstop flights of a week's duration or longer. At a minimum, their decisions will affect wind profitability and thus reduce energetic costs of migration; in the extreme, poor decisions or unpredictable weather events will risk survival. We used satellite telemetry to track the annual migration of 24 bar-tailed godwits and analysed their flight performance relative to wind conditions during three major migration legs between nonbreeding grounds in New Zealand and breeding grounds in Alaska. Because flight altitudes of birds en route were unknown, we modelled flight efficiency at six geopotential heights across each migratory segment. Birds selected departure dates when atmospheric conditions conferred the greatest wind assistance both at departure and throughout their flights. This behaviour suggests that there exists a cognitive mechanism, heretofore unknown among migratory birds, that allows godwits to assess changes in weather conditions that are linked (i.e. teleconnected) across widely separated atmospheric regions. Godwits also showed adaptive flexibility in their response not only to cues related to seasonal changes in macrometeorology, such as spatial shifting of storm tracks and temporal periods of cyclogenesis, but also to cues associated with stochastic events, especially at departure sites. Godwits showed limits to their response behaviours, however, especially relative to rapidly developing stochastic events while en route. We found that flight efficiency depended significantly upon altitude and hypothesize that godwits exhibit further adaptive flexibility by varying flight altitude en route to optimize flight efficiency.

Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO

PubMed Central

Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S. C.

2015-01-01

Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search–based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people’s online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions. PMID:26553980

Taking clickers to the next level: a contingent teaching model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, Sepideh; Stewart, Wayne

2013-12-01

Over the past decade, many researchers have discussed the effectiveness of clickers and their potential to change the way we teach and interact with students. Although most of the literature revolves around elementary usage of clickers, the deeper questions of how to integrate this technology into teaching are largely unanswered. In this paper, we present an implementation of a teaching model in a third year undergraduate Bayesian statistics class. The model is based on Schoenfeld's interactive teaching routine and it is enhanced by Draper and Brown's contingent teaching and Beatty et al.'s Question Driven Instruction (QDI) and the use of clickers. It illustrates a teaching paradigm which is flexible, contingent to students' needs, makes use of the most up to date information from students' feedback via clickers and benefits from the teacher's decision making at appropriate moments. We will discuss the pedagogical implications of this model in teaching.

Automatic Sleep Stage Determination by Multi-Valued Decision Making Based on Conditional Probability with Optimal Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bei; Sugi, Takenao; Wang, Xingyu; Nakamura, Masatoshi

Data for human sleep study may be affected by internal and external influences. The recorded sleep data contains complex and stochastic factors, which increase the difficulties for the computerized sleep stage determination techniques to be applied for clinical practice. The aim of this study is to develop an automatic sleep stage determination system which is optimized for variable sleep data. The main methodology includes two modules: expert knowledge database construction and automatic sleep stage determination. Visual inspection by a qualified clinician is utilized to obtain the probability density function of parameters during the learning process of expert knowledge database construction. Parameter selection is introduced in order to make the algorithm flexible. Automatic sleep stage determination is manipulated based on conditional probability. The result showed close agreement comparing with the visual inspection by clinician. The developed system can meet the customized requirements in hospitals and institutions.

Decision-making in Swiss home-like childbirth: A grounded theory study.

PubMed

Meyer, Yvonne; Frank, Franziska; Schläppy Muntwyler, Franziska; Fleming, Valerie; Pehlke-Milde, Jessica

2017-12-01

Decision-making in midwifery, including a claim for shared decision-making between midwives and women, is of major significance for the health of mother and child. Midwives have little information about how to share decision-making responsibilities with women, especially when complications arise during birth. To increase understanding of decision-making in complex home-like birth settings by exploring midwives' and women's perspectives and to develop a dynamic model integrating participatory processes for making shared decisions. The study, based on grounded theory methodology, analysed 20 interviews of midwives and 20 women who had experienced complications in home-like births. The central phenomenon that arose from the data was "defining/redefining decision as a joint commitment to healthy childbirth". The sub-indicators that make up this phenomenon were safety, responsibility, mutual and personal commitments. These sub-indicators were also identified to influence temporal conditions of decision-making and to apply different strategies for shared decision-making. Women adopted strategies such as delegating a decision, making the midwife's decision her own, challenging a decision or taking a decision driven by the dynamics of childbirth. Midwives employed strategies such as remaining indecisive, approving a woman's decision, making an informed decision or taking the necessary decision. To respond to recommendations for shared responsibility for care, midwives need to strengthen their shared decision-making skills. The visual model of decision-making in childbirth derived from the data provides a framework for transferring clinical reasoning into practice. Copyright © 2017 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shared decision-making - Rhetoric and reality: Women's experiences and perceptions of adjuvant treatment decision-making for breast cancer.

PubMed

Mahmoodi, Neda; Sargeant, Sally

2017-01-01

This interview-based study uses phenomenology as a theoretical framework and thematic analysis to challenge existing explanatory frameworks of shared decision-making, in an exploration of women's experiences and perceptions of shared decision-making for adjuvant treatment in breast cancer. Three themes emerged are as follows: (1) women's desire to participate in shared decision-making, (2) the degree to which shared decision-making is perceived to be shared and (3) to what extent are women empowered within shared decision-making. Studying breast cancer patients' subjective experiences of adjuvant treatment decision-making provides a broader perspective on patient participatory role preferences and doctor-patient power dynamics within shared decision-making for breast cancer.

Diverting the tourists: a spatial decision-support system for tourism planning on a developing island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beedasy, Jaishree; Whyatt, Duncan

Mauritius is a small island (1865 km 2) in the Indian Ocean. Tourism is the third largest economic sector of the country, after manufacturing and agriculture. A limitation of space and the island's vulnerable ecosystem warrants a rational approach to tourism development. The main problems so far have been to manipulate and integrate all the factors affecting tourism planning and to match spatial data with their relevant attributes. A Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) for sustainable tourism planning is therefore proposed. The proposed SDSS design would include a GIS as its core component. A first GIS model has already been constructed with available data. Supporting decision-making in a spatial context is implicit in the use of GIS. However the analytical capability of the GIS has to be enhanced to solve semi-structured problems, where subjective judgements come into play. The second part of the paper deals with the choice, implementation and customisation of a relevant model to develop a specialised SDSS. Different types of models and techniques are discussed, in particular a comparison of compensatory and non-compensatory approaches to multicriteria evaluation (MCE). It is concluded that compensatory multicriteria evaluation techniques increase the scope of the present GIS model as a decision-support tool. This approach gives the user or decision-maker the flexibility to change the importance of each criterion depending on relevant objectives.

Measuring Shared Decision Making in Psychiatric Care

PubMed Central

Salyers, Michelle P.; Matthias, Marianne S.; Fukui, Sadaaki; Holter, Mark C.; Collins, Linda; Rose, Nichole; Thompson, John; Coffman, Melinda; Torrey, William C.

2014-01-01

Objective Shared decision making is widely recognized to facilitate effective health care; tools are needed to measure the level of shared decision making in psychiatric practice. Methods A coding scheme assessing shared decision making in medical settings (1) was adapted, including creation of a manual. Trained raters analyzed 170 audio recordings of psychiatric medication check-up visits. Results Inter-rater reliability among three raters for a subset of 20 recordings ranged from 67% to 100% agreement for the presence of each of nine elements of shared decision making and 100% for the overall agreement between provider and consumer. Just over half of the decisions met minimum criteria for shared decision making. Shared decision making was not related to length of visit after controlling for complexity of decision. Conclusions The shared decision making rating scale appears to reliably assess shared decision making in psychiatric practice and could be helpful for future research, training, and implementation efforts. PMID:22854725

Identifying frailty in primary care: a qualitative description of family physicians' gestalt impressions of their older adult patients.

PubMed

Korenvain, Clara; Famiyeh, Ida-Maisie; Dunn, Sheila; Whitehead, Cynthia R; Rochon, Paula A; McCarthy, Lisa M

2018-05-14

Many tools exist to guide family physicians' impressions about frailty status of older adults, but no single tool, instrument, or set of criteria has emerged as most useful. The role of physicians' subjective impressions in frailty decisions has not been studied. This study explores how family physicians conceptualize frailty, and the factors that they consider when making subjective decisions about patients' frailty statuses. Descriptive qualitative study of family physicians who practice in a large urban academic family medicine center as they participated in one-on-one "think-aloud" interviews about the frailty status of their patients aged 80 years and over. Of 23 eligible family physicians, 18 shared their impressions about the frailty status of their older adult patients and the factors influencing their decisions. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and thematically analyzed. Four themes were identified, the first of which described how physicians conceptualized frailty as a spectrum and dynamic in nature, but also struggled to conceptualize it without a formal definition in place. The remaining three themes described factors considered before determining patients' frailty statuses: physical characteristics (age, weight, medical conditions), functional characteristics (physical, cognitive, social) and living conditions (level of independence, availability of supports, physical environment). Family physicians viewed frailty as multifactorial, dynamic, and inclusive of functional and environmental factors. This conceptualization can be useful to make comprehensive and flexible evaluations of frailty status in conjunction with more objective frailty tools.

Linking decision-making research and cancer prevention and control: important themes.

PubMed

McCaul, Kevin D; Peters, Ellen; Nelson, Wendy; Stefanek, Michael

2005-07-01

This article describes 6 themes underlying the multiple presentations from the Basic and Applied Decision Making in Cancer Control meeting, held February 19-20, 2004. The following themes have important implications for research and practice linking basic decision-making research to cancer prevention and control: (a) Traditional decision-making theories fail to capture real-world decision making, (b) decision makers are often unable to predict future preferences, (c) preferences are often constructed on the spot and thus are influenced by situational cues, (d) decision makers often rely on feelings rather than beliefs when making a decision, (e) the perspective of the decision maker is critical in determining preferences, and (f) informed decision making may--or may not--yield the best decisions.

Optimum aggregation of geographically distributed flexible resources in strategic smart-grid/microgrid locations

DOE PAGES

Bhattarai, Bishnu P.; Myers, Kurt S.; Bak-Jensen, Brigitte; ...

2017-05-17

This paper determines optimum aggregation areas for a given distribution network considering spatial distribution of loads and costs of aggregation. An elitist genetic algorithm combined with a hierarchical clustering and a Thevenin network reduction is implemented to compute strategic locations and aggregate demand within each area. The aggregation reduces large distribution networks having thousands of nodes to an equivalent network with few aggregated loads, thereby significantly reducing the computational burden. Furthermore, it not only helps distribution system operators in making faster operational decisions by understanding during which time of the day will be in need of flexibility, from which specificmore » area, and in which amount, but also enables the flexibilities stemming from small distributed resources to be traded in various power/energy markets. A combination of central and local aggregation scheme where a central aggregator enables market participation, while local aggregators materialize the accepted bids, is implemented to realize this concept. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing network performances with and without aggregation. Finally, for a given network configuration, steady-state performance of aggregated network is significantly accurate (≈ ±1.5% error) compared to very high errors associated with forecast of individual consumer demand.« less

Optimum aggregation of geographically distributed flexible resources in strategic smart-grid/microgrid locations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhattarai, Bishnu P.; Myers, Kurt S.; Bak-Jensen, Brigitte

This paper determines optimum aggregation areas for a given distribution network considering spatial distribution of loads and costs of aggregation. An elitist genetic algorithm combined with a hierarchical clustering and a Thevenin network reduction is implemented to compute strategic locations and aggregate demand within each area. The aggregation reduces large distribution networks having thousands of nodes to an equivalent network with few aggregated loads, thereby significantly reducing the computational burden. Furthermore, it not only helps distribution system operators in making faster operational decisions by understanding during which time of the day will be in need of flexibility, from which specificmore » area, and in which amount, but also enables the flexibilities stemming from small distributed resources to be traded in various power/energy markets. A combination of central and local aggregation scheme where a central aggregator enables market participation, while local aggregators materialize the accepted bids, is implemented to realize this concept. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing network performances with and without aggregation. Finally, for a given network configuration, steady-state performance of aggregated network is significantly accurate (≈ ±1.5% error) compared to very high errors associated with forecast of individual consumer demand.« less

Blended near-optimal tools for flexible water resources decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenberg, David

2015-04-01

State-of-the-art systems analysis techniques focus on efficiently finding optimal solutions. Yet an optimal solution is optimal only for the static modelled issues and managers often seek near-optimal alternatives that address un-modelled or changing objectives, preferences, limits, uncertainties, and other issues. Early on, Modelling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) formalized near-optimal as performance within a tolerable deviation from the optimal objective function value and identified a few maximally-different alternatives that addressed select un-modelled issues. This paper presents new stratified, Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling and parallel coordinate plotting tools that generate and communicate the structure and full extent of the near-optimal region to an optimization problem. Plot controls allow users to interactively explore region features of most interest. Controls also streamline the process to elicit un-modelled issues and update the model formulation in response to elicited issues. Use for a single-objective water quality management problem at Echo Reservoir, Utah identifies numerous and flexible practices to reduce the phosphorus load to the reservoir and maintain close-to-optimal performance. Compared to MGA, the new blended tools generate more numerous alternatives faster, more fully show the near-optimal region, help elicit a larger set of un-modelled issues, and offer managers greater flexibility to cope in a changing world.

Couples’ reports of household decision-making and the utilization of maternal health services in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Story, William T.; Burgard, Sarah A.

2012-01-01

This study examines the association between maternal health service utilization and household decision-making in Bangladesh. Most studies of the predictors of reproductive health service use focus on women’s reports; however, men are often involved in these decisions as well. Recently, studies have started to explore the association between health outcomes and reports of household decision-making from both husbands and wives as matched pairs. Many studies of household decision-making emphasize the importance of the wife alone making decisions; however, some have argued that joint decision-making between husbands and wives may yield better reproductive health outcomes than women making decisions without input or agreement from their partners. Husbands’ involvement in decision-making is particularly important in Bangladesh because men often dominate household decisions related to large, health-related purchases. We use matched husband and wife reports about who makes common household decisions to predict use of antenatal and skilled delivery care, using data from the 2007 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Results from regression analyses suggest that it is important to consider whether husbands and wives give concordant responses about who makes household decisions since discordant reports about who makes these decisions are negatively associated with reproductive health care use. In addition, compared to joint decision-making, husband-only decision-making is negatively associated with antenatal care use and skilled delivery care. Finally, associations between household decision-making arrangements and health service utilization vary depending on whose report is used and the type of health service utilized. PMID:23068556