Self-organising mixture autoregressive model for non-stationary time series modelling.

PubMed

Ni, He; Yin, Hujun

2008-12-01

Modelling non-stationary time series has been a difficult task for both parametric and nonparametric methods. One promising solution is to combine the flexibility of nonparametric models with the simplicity of parametric models. In this paper, the self-organising mixture autoregressive (SOMAR) network is adopted as a such mixture model. It breaks time series into underlying segments and at the same time fits local linear regressive models to the clusters of segments. In such a way, a global non-stationary time series is represented by a dynamic set of local linear regressive models. Neural gas is used for a more flexible structure of the mixture model. Furthermore, a new similarity measure has been introduced in the self-organising network to better quantify the similarity of time series segments. The network can be used naturally in modelling and forecasting non-stationary time series. Experiments on artificial, benchmark time series (e.g. Mackey-Glass) and real-world data (e.g. numbers of sunspots and Forex rates) are presented and the results show that the proposed SOMAR network is effective and superior to other similar approaches.

Bayesian hierarchical functional data analysis via contaminated informative priors.

PubMed

Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B

2009-09-01

A variety of flexible approaches have been proposed for functional data analysis, allowing both the mean curve and the distribution about the mean to be unknown. Such methods are most useful when there is limited prior information. Motivated by applications to modeling of temperature curves in the menstrual cycle, this article proposes a flexible approach for incorporating prior information in semiparametric Bayesian analyses of hierarchical functional data. The proposed approach is based on specifying the distribution of functions as a mixture of a parametric hierarchical model and a nonparametric contamination. The parametric component is chosen based on prior knowledge, while the contamination is characterized as a functional Dirichlet process. In the motivating application, the contamination component allows unanticipated curve shapes in unhealthy menstrual cycles. Methods are developed for posterior computation, and the approach is applied to data from a European fecundability study.

Parametrically Guided Generalized Additive Models with Application to Mergers and Acquisitions Data

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Maity, Arnab; Wang, Yihui; Wu, Yichao

2012-01-01

Generalized nonparametric additive models present a flexible way to evaluate the effects of several covariates on a general outcome of interest via a link function. In this modeling framework, one assumes that the effect of each of the covariates is nonparametric and additive. However, in practice, often there is prior information available about the shape of the regression functions, possibly from pilot studies or exploratory analysis. In this paper, we consider such situations and propose an estimation procedure where the prior information is used as a parametric guide to fit the additive model. Specifically, we first posit a parametric family for each of the regression functions using the prior information (parametric guides). After removing these parametric trends, we then estimate the remainder of the nonparametric functions using a nonparametric generalized additive model, and form the final estimates by adding back the parametric trend. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the estimates and show that when a good guide is chosen, the asymptotic variance of the estimates can be reduced significantly while keeping the asymptotic variance same as the unguided estimator. We observe the performance of our method via a simulation study and demonstrate our method by applying to a real data set on mergers and acquisitions. PMID:23645976

Parametrically Guided Generalized Additive Models with Application to Mergers and Acquisitions Data.

PubMed

Fan, Jianqing; Maity, Arnab; Wang, Yihui; Wu, Yichao

2013-01-01

Generalized nonparametric additive models present a flexible way to evaluate the effects of several covariates on a general outcome of interest via a link function. In this modeling framework, one assumes that the effect of each of the covariates is nonparametric and additive. However, in practice, often there is prior information available about the shape of the regression functions, possibly from pilot studies or exploratory analysis. In this paper, we consider such situations and propose an estimation procedure where the prior information is used as a parametric guide to fit the additive model. Specifically, we first posit a parametric family for each of the regression functions using the prior information (parametric guides). After removing these parametric trends, we then estimate the remainder of the nonparametric functions using a nonparametric generalized additive model, and form the final estimates by adding back the parametric trend. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the estimates and show that when a good guide is chosen, the asymptotic variance of the estimates can be reduced significantly while keeping the asymptotic variance same as the unguided estimator. We observe the performance of our method via a simulation study and demonstrate our method by applying to a real data set on mergers and acquisitions.

Current estimates of the cure fraction: a feasibility study of statistical cure for breast and colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Stedman, Margaret R; Feuer, Eric J; Mariotto, Angela B

2014-11-01

The probability of cure is a long-term prognostic measure of cancer survival. Estimates of the cure fraction, the proportion of patients "cured" of the disease, are based on extrapolating survival models beyond the range of data. The objective of this work is to evaluate the sensitivity of cure fraction estimates to model choice and study design. Data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-9 registries to construct a cohort of breast and colorectal cancer patients diagnosed from 1975 to 1985. In a sensitivity analysis, cure fraction estimates are compared from different study designs with short- and long-term follow-up. Methods tested include: cause-specific and relative survival, parametric mixture, and flexible models. In a separate analysis, estimates are projected for 2008 diagnoses using study designs including the full cohort (1975-2008 diagnoses) and restricted to recent diagnoses (1998-2008) with follow-up to 2009. We show that flexible models often provide higher estimates of the cure fraction compared to parametric mixture models. Log normal models generate lower estimates than Weibull parametric models. In general, 12 years is enough follow-up time to estimate the cure fraction for regional and distant stage colorectal cancer but not for breast cancer. 2008 colorectal cure projections show a 15% increase in the cure fraction since 1985. Estimates of the cure fraction are model and study design dependent. It is best to compare results from multiple models and examine model fit to determine the reliability of the estimate. Early-stage cancers are sensitive to survival type and follow-up time because of their longer survival. More flexible models are susceptible to slight fluctuations in the shape of the survival curve which can influence the stability of the estimate; however, stability may be improved by lengthening follow-up and restricting the cohort to reduce heterogeneity in the data. Published by Oxford University Press 2014.

Discrete and continuous dynamics modeling of a mass moving on a flexible structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, Deborah Ann

1992-01-01

A general discrete methodology for modeling the dynamics of a mass that moves on the surface of a flexible structure is developed. This problem was motivated by the Space Station/Mobile Transporter system. A model reduction approach is developed to make the methodology applicable to large structural systems. To validate the discrete methodology, continuous formulations are also developed. Three different systems are examined: (1) simply-supported beam, (2) free-free beam, and (3) free-free beam with two points of contact between the mass and the flexible beam. In addition to validating the methodology, parametric studies were performed to examine how the system's physical properties affect its dynamics.

Handling Qualities of Large Flexible Aircraft. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poopaka, S.

1980-01-01

The effects on handling qualities of elastic modes interaction with the rigid body dynamics of a large flexible aircraft are studied by a mathematical computer simulation. An analytical method to predict the pilot ratings when there is a severe modes interactions is developed. This is done by extending the optimal control model of the human pilot response to include the mode decomposition mechanism into the model. The handling qualities are determined for a longitudinal tracking task using a large flexible aircraft with parametric variations in the undamped natural frequencies of the two lowest frequency, symmetric elastic modes made to induce varying amounts of mode interaction.

The influence of and the identification of nonlinearity in flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodney, Lawrence D.

1988-01-01

Several models were built at NASA Langley and used to demonstrate the following nonlinear behavior: internal resonance in a free response, principal parametric resonance and subcritical instability in a cantilever beam-lumped mass structure, combination resonance in a parametrically excited flexible beam, autoparametric interaction in a two-degree-of-freedom system, instability of the linear solution, saturation of the excited mode, subharmonic bifurcation, and chaotic responses. A video tape documenting these phenomena was made. An attempt to identify a simple structure consisting of two light-weight beams and two lumped masses using the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm showed the inherent difficulty of using a linear based theory to identify a particular nonlinearity. Preliminary results show the technique requires novel interpretation, and hence may not be useful for structural modes that are coupled by a guadratic nonlinearity. A literature survey was also completed on recent work in parametrically excited nonlinear system. In summary, nonlinear systems may possess unique behaviors that require nonlinear identification techniques based on an understanding of how nonlinearity affects the dynamic response of structures. In this was, the unique behaviors of nonlinear systems may be properly identified. Moreover, more accutate quantifiable estimates can be made once the qualitative model has been determined.

Nonlinear Parametric Excitation Effect Induces Stability Transitions in Swimming Direction of Flexible Superparamagnetic Microswimmers.

PubMed

Harduf, Yuval; Jin, Dongdong; Or, Yizhar; Zhang, Li

2018-04-05

Microscopic artificial swimmers have recently become highly attractive due to their promising potential for biomedical microrobotic applications. Previous pioneering work has demonstrated the motion of a robotic microswimmer with a flexible chain of superparamagnetic beads, which is actuated by applying an oscillating external magnetic field. Interestingly, they have shown that the microswimmer's orientation undergoes a 90°-transition when the magnetic field's oscillation amplitude is increased above a critical value. This unexpected transition can cause severe problems in steering and manipulation of flexible magnetic microrobotic swimmers. Thus, theoretical understanding and analysis of the physical origins of this effect are of crucial importance. In this work, we investigate this transition both theoretically and experimentally by using numerical simulations and presenting a novel flexible microswimmer with an anisotropic superparamagnetic head. We prove that this effect depends on both frequency and amplitude of the oscillating magnetic field, and demonstrate existence of an optimal amplitude achieving maximal swimming speed. Asymptotic analysis of a minimal two-link model reveals that the changes in the swimmer's direction represent stability transitions, which are induced by a nonlinear parametric excitation.

Integrated modeling for parametric evaluation of smart x-ray optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dell'Agostino, S.; Riva, M.; Spiga, D.; Basso, S.; Civitani, Marta

2014-08-01

This work is developed in the framework of AXYOM project, which proposes to study the application of a system of piezoelectric actuators to grazing-incidence X-ray telescope optic prototypes: thin glass or plastic foils, in order to increase their angular resolution. An integrated optomechanical model has been set up to evaluate the performances of X-ray optics under deformation induced by Piezo Actuators. Parametric evaluation has been done looking at different number and position of actuators to optimize the outcome. Different evaluations have also been done over the actuator types, considering Flexible Piezoceramic, Multi Fiber Composites piezo actuators, and PVDF.

Nanoscale electromechanical parametric amplifier

DOEpatents

Aleman, Benjamin Jose; Zettl, Alexander

2016-09-20

This disclosure provides systems, methods, and apparatus related to a parametric amplifier. In one aspect, a device includes an electron source electrode, a counter electrode, and a pumping electrode. The electron source electrode may include a conductive base and a flexible conductor. The flexible conductor may have a first end and a second end, with the second end of the flexible conductor being coupled to the conductive base. A cross-sectional dimension of the flexible conductor may be less than about 100 nanometers. The counter electrode may be disposed proximate the first end of the flexible conductor and spaced a first distance from the first end of the flexible conductor. The pumping electrode may be disposed proximate a length of the flexible conductor and spaced a second distance from the flexible conductor.

Sgr A* Emission Parametrizations from GRMHD Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantua, Richard; Ressler, Sean; Quataert, Eliot

2018-06-01

Galactic Center emission near the vicinity of the central black hole, Sagittarius (Sgr) A*, is modeled using parametrizations involving the electron temperature, which is found from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations to be highest in the disk-outflow corona. Jet-motivated prescriptions generalizing equipartition of particle and magnetic energies, e.g., by scaling relativistic electron energy density to powers of the magnetic field strength, are also introduced. GRMHD jet (or outflow)/accretion disk/black hole (JAB) simulation postprocessing codes IBOTHROS and GRMONTY are employed in the calculation of images and spectra. Various parametric models reproduce spectral and morphological features, such as the sub-mm spectral bump in electron temperature models and asymmetric photon rings in equipartition-based models. The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) will provide unprecedentedly high-resolution 230+ GHz observations of the "shadow" around Sgr A*'s supermassive black hole, which the synthetic models presented here will reverse-engineer. Both electron temperature and equipartition-based models can be constructed to be compatible with EHT size constraints for the emitting region of Sgr A*. This program sets the groundwork for devising a unified emission parametrization flexible enough to model disk, corona and outflow/jet regions with a small set of parameters including electron heating fraction and plasma beta.

Test of the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parametrization for rapid dark energy equation of state transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linden, Sebastian; Virey, Jean-Marc

2008-07-01

We test the robustness and flexibility of the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization of the dark energy equation of state w(z)=w0+wa(z)/(1+z) in recovering a four-parameter steplike fiducial model. We constrain the parameter space region of the underlying fiducial model where the CPL parametrization offers a reliable reconstruction. It turns out that non-negligible biases leak into the results for recent (z<2.5) rapid transitions, but that CPL yields a good reconstruction in all other cases. The presented analysis is performed with supernova Ia data as forecasted for a space mission like SNAP/JDEM, combined with future expectations for the cosmic microwave background shift parameter R and the baryonic acoustic oscillation parameter A.

Effects of structural flexibility of wings in flapping flight of butterfly.

PubMed

Senda, Kei; Obara, Takuya; Kitamura, Masahiko; Yokoyama, Naoto; Hirai, Norio; Iima, Makoto

2012-06-01

The objective of this paper is to clarify the effects of structural flexibility of wings of a butterfly in flapping flight. For this purpose, a dynamics model of a butterfly is derived by Lagrange's method, where the butterfly is considered as a rigid multi-body system. The panel method is employed to simulate the flow field and the aerodynamic forces acting on the wings. The mathematical model is validated by the agreement of the numerical result with the experimentally measured data. Then, periodic orbits of flapping-of-wings flights are parametrically searched in order to fly the butterfly models. Almost periodic orbits are found, but they are unstable. Deformation of the wings is modeled in two ways. One is bending and its effect on the aerodynamic forces is discussed. The other is passive wing torsion caused by structural flexibility. Numerical simulations demonstrate that flexible torsion reduces the flight instability.

Non-parametric directionality analysis - Extension for removal of a single common predictor and application to time series.

PubMed

Halliday, David M; Senik, Mohd Harizal; Stevenson, Carl W; Mason, Rob

2016-08-01

The ability to infer network structure from multivariate neuronal signals is central to computational neuroscience. Directed network analyses typically use parametric approaches based on auto-regressive (AR) models, where networks are constructed from estimates of AR model parameters. However, the validity of using low order AR models for neurophysiological signals has been questioned. A recent article introduced a non-parametric approach to estimate directionality in bivariate data, non-parametric approaches are free from concerns over model validity. We extend the non-parametric framework to include measures of directed conditional independence, using scalar measures that decompose the overall partial correlation coefficient summatively by direction, and a set of functions that decompose the partial coherence summatively by direction. A time domain partial correlation function allows both time and frequency views of the data to be constructed. The conditional independence estimates are conditioned on a single predictor. The framework is applied to simulated cortical neuron networks and mixtures of Gaussian time series data with known interactions. It is applied to experimental data consisting of local field potential recordings from bilateral hippocampus in anaesthetised rats. The framework offers a non-parametric approach to estimation of directed interactions in multivariate neuronal recordings, and increased flexibility in dealing with both spike train and time series data. The framework offers a novel alternative non-parametric approach to estimate directed interactions in multivariate neuronal recordings, and is applicable to spike train and time series data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A modular approach for item response theory modeling with the R package flirt.

PubMed

Jeon, Minjeong; Rijmen, Frank

2016-06-01

The new R package flirt is introduced for flexible item response theory (IRT) modeling of psychological, educational, and behavior assessment data. flirt integrates a generalized linear and nonlinear mixed modeling framework with graphical model theory. The graphical model framework allows for efficient maximum likelihood estimation. The key feature of flirt is its modular approach to facilitate convenient and flexible model specifications. Researchers can construct customized IRT models by simply selecting various modeling modules, such as parametric forms, number of dimensions, item and person covariates, person groups, link functions, etc. In this paper, we describe major features of flirt and provide examples to illustrate how flirt works in practice.

Variable selection in a flexible parametric mixture cure model with interval-censored data.

PubMed

Scolas, Sylvie; El Ghouch, Anouar; Legrand, Catherine; Oulhaj, Abderrahim

2016-03-30

In standard survival analysis, it is generally assumed that every individual will experience someday the event of interest. However, this is not always the case, as some individuals may not be susceptible to this event. Also, in medical studies, it is frequent that patients come to scheduled interviews and that the time to the event is only known to occur between two visits. That is, the data are interval-censored with a cure fraction. Variable selection in such a setting is of outstanding interest. Covariates impacting the survival are not necessarily the same as those impacting the probability to experience the event. The objective of this paper is to develop a parametric but flexible statistical model to analyze data that are interval-censored and include a fraction of cured individuals when the number of potential covariates may be large. We use the parametric mixture cure model with an accelerated failure time regression model for the survival, along with the extended generalized gamma for the error term. To overcome the issue of non-stable and non-continuous variable selection procedures, we extend the adaptive LASSO to our model. By means of simulation studies, we show good performance of our method and discuss the behavior of estimates with varying cure and censoring proportion. Lastly, our proposed method is illustrated with a real dataset studying the time until conversion to mild cognitive impairment, a possible precursor of Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Formation of parametric images using mixed-effects models: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Huang, Husan-Ming; Shih, Yi-Yu; Lin, Chieh

2016-03-01

Mixed-effects models have been widely used in the analysis of longitudinal data. By presenting the parameters as a combination of fixed effects and random effects, mixed-effects models incorporating both within- and between-subject variations are capable of improving parameter estimation. In this work, we demonstrate the feasibility of using a non-linear mixed-effects (NLME) approach for generating parametric images from medical imaging data of a single study. By assuming that all voxels in the image are independent, we used simulation and animal data to evaluate whether NLME can improve the voxel-wise parameter estimation. For testing purposes, intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) diffusion parameters including perfusion fraction, pseudo-diffusion coefficient and true diffusion coefficient were estimated using diffusion-weighted MR images and NLME through fitting the IVIM model. The conventional method of non-linear least squares (NLLS) was used as the standard approach for comparison of the resulted parametric images. In the simulated data, NLME provides more accurate and precise estimates of diffusion parameters compared with NLLS. Similarly, we found that NLME has the ability to improve the signal-to-noise ratio of parametric images obtained from rat brain data. These data have shown that it is feasible to apply NLME in parametric image generation, and the parametric image quality can be accordingly improved with the use of NLME. With the flexibility to be adapted to other models or modalities, NLME may become a useful tool to improve the parametric image quality in the future. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Adjusting Expected Mortality Rates Using Information From a Control Population: An Example Using Socioeconomic Status.

PubMed

Bower, Hannah; Andersson, Therese M-L; Crowther, Michael J; Dickman, Paul W; Lambe, Mats; Lambert, Paul C

2018-04-01

Expected or reference mortality rates are commonly used in the calculation of measures such as relative survival in population-based cancer survival studies and standardized mortality ratios. These expected rates are usually presented according to age, sex, and calendar year. In certain situations, stratification of expected rates by other factors is required to avoid potential bias if interest lies in quantifying measures according to such factors as, for example, socioeconomic status. If data are not available on a population level, information from a control population could be used to adjust expected rates. We have presented two approaches for adjusting expected mortality rates using information from a control population: a Poisson generalized linear model and a flexible parametric survival model. We used a control group from BCBaSe-a register-based, matched breast cancer cohort in Sweden with diagnoses between 1992 and 2012-to illustrate the two methods using socioeconomic status as a risk factor of interest. Results showed that Poisson and flexible parametric survival approaches estimate similar adjusted mortality rates according to socioeconomic status. Additional uncertainty involved in the methods to estimate stratified, expected mortality rates described in this study can be accounted for using a parametric bootstrap, but this might make little difference if using a large control population.

Semi-Parametric Item Response Functions in the Context of Guessing. CRESST Report 844

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falk, Carl F.; Cai, Li

2015-01-01

We present a logistic function of a monotonic polynomial with a lower asymptote, allowing additional flexibility beyond the three-parameter logistic model. We develop a maximum marginal likelihood based approach to estimate the item parameters. The new item response model is demonstrated on math assessment data from a state, and a computationally…

Historical HIV incidence modelling in regional subgroups: use of flexible discrete models with penalized splines based on prior curves.

PubMed

Greenland, S

1996-03-15

This paper presents an approach to back-projection (back-calculation) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) person-year infection rates in regional subgroups based on combining a log-linear model for subgroup differences with a penalized spline model for trends. The penalized spline approach allows flexible trend estimation but requires far fewer parameters than fully non-parametric smoothers, thus saving parameters that can be used in estimating subgroup effects. Use of reasonable prior curve to construct the penalty function minimizes the degree of smoothing needed beyond model specification. The approach is illustrated in application to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) surveillance data from Los Angeles County.

A Semi-parametric Transformation Frailty Model for Semi-competing Risks Survival Data

PubMed Central

Jiang, Fei; Haneuse, Sebastien

2016-01-01

In the analysis of semi-competing risks data interest lies in estimation and inference with respect to a so-called non-terminal event, the observation of which is subject to a terminal event. Multi-state models are commonly used to analyse such data, with covariate effects on the transition/intensity functions typically specified via the Cox model and dependence between the non-terminal and terminal events specified, in part, by a unit-specific shared frailty term. To ensure identifiability, the frailties are typically assumed to arise from a parametric distribution, specifically a Gamma distribution with mean 1.0 and variance, say, σ2. When the frailty distribution is misspecified, however, the resulting estimator is not guaranteed to be consistent, with the extent of asymptotic bias depending on the discrepancy between the assumed and true frailty distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel class of transformation models for semi-competing risks analysis that permit the non-parametric specification of the frailty distribution. To ensure identifiability, the class restricts to parametric specifications of the transformation and the error distribution; the latter are flexible, however, and cover a broad range of possible specifications. We also derive the semi-parametric efficient score under the complete data setting and propose a non-parametric score imputation method to handle right censoring; consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators is derived and small-sample operating characteristics evaluated via simulation. Although the proposed semi-parametric transformation model and non-parametric score imputation method are motivated by the analysis of semi-competing risks data, they are broadly applicable to any analysis of multivariate time-to-event outcomes in which a unit-specific shared frailty is used to account for correlation. Finally, the proposed model and estimation procedures are applied to a study of hospital readmission among patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. PMID:28439147

Parametric design and gridding through relational geometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Letcher, John S., Jr.; Shook, D. Michael

1995-01-01

Relational Geometric Synthesis (RGS) is a new logical framework for building up precise definitions of complex geometric models from points, curves, surfaces and solids. RGS achieves unprecedented design flexibility by supporting a rich variety of useful curve and surface entities. During the design process, many qualitative and quantitative relationships between elementary objects may be captured and retained in a data structure equivalent to a directed graph, such that they can be utilized for automatically updating the complete model geometry following changes in the shape or location of an underlying object. Capture of relationships enables many new possibilities for parametric variations and optimization. Examples are given of panelization applications for submarines, sailing yachts, offshore structures, and propellers.

Regional vertical total electron content (VTEC) modeling together with satellite and receiver differential code biases (DCBs) using semi-parametric multivariate adaptive regression B-splines (SP-BMARS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durmaz, Murat; Karslioglu, Mahmut Onur

2015-04-01

There are various global and regional methods that have been proposed for the modeling of ionospheric vertical total electron content (VTEC). Global distribution of VTEC is usually modeled by spherical harmonic expansions, while tensor products of compactly supported univariate B-splines can be used for regional modeling. In these empirical parametric models, the coefficients of the basis functions as well as differential code biases (DCBs) of satellites and receivers can be treated as unknown parameters which can be estimated from geometry-free linear combinations of global positioning system observables. In this work we propose a new semi-parametric multivariate adaptive regression B-splines (SP-BMARS) method for the regional modeling of VTEC together with satellite and receiver DCBs, where the parametric part of the model is related to the DCBs as fixed parameters and the non-parametric part adaptively models the spatio-temporal distribution of VTEC. The latter is based on multivariate adaptive regression B-splines which is a non-parametric modeling technique making use of compactly supported B-spline basis functions that are generated from the observations automatically. This algorithm takes advantage of an adaptive scale-by-scale model building strategy that searches for best-fitting B-splines to the data at each scale. The VTEC maps generated from the proposed method are compared numerically and visually with the global ionosphere maps (GIMs) which are provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). The VTEC values from SP-BMARS and CODE GIMs are also compared with VTEC values obtained through calibration using local ionospheric model. The estimated satellite and receiver DCBs from the SP-BMARS model are compared with the CODE distributed DCBs. The results show that the SP-BMARS algorithm can be used to estimate satellite and receiver DCBs while adaptively and flexibly modeling the daily regional VTEC.

Reduced size first-order subsonic and supersonic aeroelastic modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karpel, Mordechay

1990-01-01

Various aeroelastic, aeroservoelastic, dynamic-response, and sensitivity analyses are based on a time-domain first-order (state-space) formulation of the equations of motion. The formulation of this paper is based on the minimum-state (MS) aerodynamic approximation method, which yields a low number of aerodynamic augmenting states. Modifications of the MS and the physical weighting procedures make the modeling method even more attractive. The flexibility of constraint selection is increased without increasing the approximation problem size; the accuracy of dynamic residualization of high-frequency modes is improved; and the resulting model is less sensitive to parametric changes in subsequent analyses. Applications to subsonic and supersonic cases demonstrate the generality, flexibility, accuracy, and efficiency of the method.

On the apparent insignificance of the randomness of flexible joints on large space truss dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, R. M.; Klosner, J. M.

1993-01-01

Deployable periodic large space structures have been shown to exhibit high dynamic sensitivity to period-breaking imperfections and uncertainties. These can be brought on by manufacturing or assembly errors, structural imperfections, as well as nonlinear and/or nonconservative joint behavior. In addition, the necessity of precise pointing and position capability can require the consideration of these usually negligible and unknown parametric uncertainties and their effect on the overall dynamic response of large space structures. This work describes the use of a new design approach for the global dynamic solution of beam-like periodic space structures possessing parametric uncertainties. Specifically, the effect of random flexible joints on the free vibrations of simply-supported periodic large space trusses is considered. The formulation is a hybrid approach in terms of an extended Timoshenko beam continuum model, Monte Carlo simulation scheme, and first-order perturbation methods. The mean and mean-square response statistics for a variety of free random vibration problems are derived for various input random joint stiffness probability distributions. The results of this effort show that, although joint flexibility has a substantial effect on the modal dynamic response of periodic large space trusses, the effect of any reasonable uncertainty or randomness associated with these joint flexibilities is insignificant.

Developing Parametric Models for the Assembly of Machine Fixtures for Virtual Multiaxial CNC Machining Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaykin, A. V.; Bezsonov, K. A.; Nekhoroshev, M. V.; Shulepov, A. P.

2018-01-01

This paper dwells upon a variance parameterization method. Variance or dimensional parameterization is based on sketching, with various parametric links superimposed on the sketch objects and user-imposed constraints in the form of an equation system that determines the parametric dependencies. This method is fully integrated in a top-down design methodology to enable the creation of multi-variant and flexible fixture assembly models, as all the modeling operations are hierarchically linked in the built tree. In this research the authors consider a parameterization method of machine tooling used for manufacturing parts using multiaxial CNC machining centers in the real manufacturing process. The developed method allows to significantly reduce tooling design time when making changes of a part’s geometric parameters. The method can also reduce time for designing and engineering preproduction, in particular, for development of control programs for CNC equipment and control and measuring machines, automate the release of design and engineering documentation. Variance parameterization helps to optimize construction of parts as well as machine tooling using integrated CAE systems. In the framework of this study, the authors demonstrate a comprehensive approach to parametric modeling of machine tooling in the CAD package used in the real manufacturing process of aircraft engines.

Super learning to hedge against incorrect inference from arbitrary parametric assumptions in marginal structural modeling.

PubMed

Neugebauer, Romain; Fireman, Bruce; Roy, Jason A; Raebel, Marsha A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J

2013-08-01

Clinical trials are unlikely to ever be launched for many comparative effectiveness research (CER) questions. Inferences from hypothetical randomized trials may however be emulated with marginal structural modeling (MSM) using observational data, but success in adjusting for time-dependent confounding and selection bias typically relies on parametric modeling assumptions. If these assumptions are violated, inferences from MSM may be inaccurate. In this article, we motivate the application of a data-adaptive estimation approach called super learning (SL) to avoid reliance on arbitrary parametric assumptions in CER. Using the electronic health records data from adults with new-onset type 2 diabetes, we implemented MSM with inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimation to evaluate the effect of three oral antidiabetic therapies on the worsening of glomerular filtration rate. Inferences from IPW estimation were noticeably sensitive to the parametric assumptions about the associations between both the exposure and censoring processes and the main suspected source of confounding, that is, time-dependent measurements of hemoglobin A1c. SL was successfully implemented to harness flexible confounding and selection bias adjustment from existing machine learning algorithms. Erroneous IPW inference about clinical effectiveness because of arbitrary and incorrect modeling decisions may be avoided with SL. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multilevel Latent Class Analysis: Parametric and Nonparametric Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2014-01-01

Latent class analysis is an analytic technique often used in educational and psychological research to identify meaningful groups of individuals within a larger heterogeneous population based on a set of variables. This technique is flexible, encompassing not only a static set of variables but also longitudinal data in the form of growth mixture…

Estimation of a partially linear additive model for data from an outcome-dependent sampling design with a continuous outcome

PubMed Central

Tan, Ziwen; Qin, Guoyou; Zhou, Haibo

2016-01-01

Outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) designs have been well recognized as a cost-effective way to enhance study efficiency in both statistical literature and biomedical and epidemiologic studies. A partially linear additive model (PLAM) is widely applied in real problems because it allows for a flexible specification of the dependence of the response on some covariates in a linear fashion and other covariates in a nonlinear non-parametric fashion. Motivated by an epidemiological study investigating the effect of prenatal polychlorinated biphenyls exposure on children's intelligence quotient (IQ) at age 7 years, we propose a PLAM in this article to investigate a more flexible non-parametric inference on the relationships among the response and covariates under the ODS scheme. We propose the estimation method and establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator. Simulation studies are conducted to show the improved efficiency of the proposed ODS estimator for PLAM compared with that from a traditional simple random sampling design with the same sample size. The data of the above-mentioned study is analyzed to illustrate the proposed method. PMID:27006375

Multi-state modelling of repeated hospitalisation and death in patients with heart failure: The use of large administrative databases in clinical epidemiology.

PubMed

Ieva, Francesca; Jackson, Christopher H; Sharples, Linda D

2017-06-01

In chronic diseases like heart failure (HF), the disease course and associated clinical event histories for the patient population vary widely. To improve understanding of the prognosis of patients and enable health care providers to assess and manage resources, we wish to jointly model disease progression, mortality and their relation with patient characteristics. We show how episodes of hospitalisation for disease-related events, obtained from administrative data, can be used as a surrogate for disease status. We propose flexible multi-state models for serial hospital admissions and death in HF patients, that are able to accommodate important features of disease progression, such as multiple ordered events and competing risks. Fully parametric and semi-parametric semi-Markov models are implemented using freely available software in R. The models were applied to a dataset from the administrative data bank of the Lombardia region in Northern Italy, which included 15,298 patients who had a first hospitalisation ending in 2006 and 4 years of follow-up thereafter. This provided estimates of the associations of age and gender with rates of hospital admission and length of stay in hospital, and estimates of the expected total time spent in hospital over five years. For example, older patients and men were readmitted more frequently, though the total time in hospital was roughly constant with age. We also discuss the relative merits of parametric and semi-parametric multi-state models, and model assessment and comparison.

Developing integrated parametric planning models for budgeting and managing complex projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Etnyre, Vance A.; Black, Ken U.

1988-01-01

The applicability of integrated parametric models for the budgeting and management of complex projects is investigated. Methods for building a very flexible, interactive prototype for a project planning system, and software resources available for this purpose, are discussed and evaluated. The prototype is required to be sensitive to changing objectives, changing target dates, changing costs relationships, and changing budget constraints. To achieve the integration of costs and project and task durations, parametric cost functions are defined by a process of trapezoidal segmentation, where the total cost for the project is the sum of the various project cost segments, and each project cost segment is the integral of a linearly segmented cost loading function over a specific interval. The cost can thus be expressed algebraically. The prototype was designed using Lotus-123 as the primary software tool. This prototype implements a methodology for interactive project scheduling that provides a model of a system that meets most of the goals for the first phase of the study and some of the goals for the second phase.

An approach to trial design and analysis in the era of non-proportional hazards of the treatment effect.

PubMed

Royston, Patrick; Parmar, Mahesh K B

2014-08-07

Most randomized controlled trials with a time-to-event outcome are designed and analysed under the proportional hazards assumption, with a target hazard ratio for the treatment effect in mind. However, the hazards may be non-proportional. We address how to design a trial under such conditions, and how to analyse the results. We propose to extend the usual approach, a logrank test, to also include the Grambsch-Therneau test of proportional hazards. We test the resulting composite null hypothesis using a joint test for the hazard ratio and for time-dependent behaviour of the hazard ratio. We compute the power and sample size for the logrank test under proportional hazards, and from that we compute the power of the joint test. For the estimation of relevant quantities from the trial data, various models could be used; we advocate adopting a pre-specified flexible parametric survival model that supports time-dependent behaviour of the hazard ratio. We present the mathematics for calculating the power and sample size for the joint test. We illustrate the methodology in real data from two randomized trials, one in ovarian cancer and the other in treating cellulitis. We show selected estimates and their uncertainty derived from the advocated flexible parametric model. We demonstrate in a small simulation study that when a treatment effect either increases or decreases over time, the joint test can outperform the logrank test in the presence of both patterns of non-proportional hazards. Those designing and analysing trials in the era of non-proportional hazards need to acknowledge that a more complex type of treatment effect is becoming more common. Our method for the design of the trial retains the tools familiar in the standard methodology based on the logrank test, and extends it to incorporate a joint test of the null hypothesis with power against non-proportional hazards. For the analysis of trial data, we propose the use of a pre-specified flexible parametric model that can represent a time-dependent hazard ratio if one is present.

Flexible Force Field Parameterization through Fitting on the Ab Initio-Derived Elastic Tensor

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Constructing functional forms and their corresponding force field parameters for the metal–linker interface of metal–organic frameworks is challenging. We propose fitting these parameters on the elastic tensor, computed from ab initio density functional theory calculations. The advantage of this top-down approach is that it becomes evident if functional forms are missing when components of the elastic tensor are off. As a proof-of-concept, a new flexible force field for MIL-47(V) is derived. Negative thermal expansion is observed and framework flexibility has a negligible effect on adsorption and transport properties for small guest molecules. We believe that this force field parametrization approach can serve as a useful tool for developing accurate flexible force field models that capture the correct mechanical behavior of the full periodic structure. PMID:28661672

Structural and parameteric uncertainty quantification in cloud microphysics parameterization schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Lier-Walqui, M.; Morrison, H.; Kumjian, M. R.; Prat, O. P.; Martinkus, C.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric model parameterization schemes employ approximations to represent the effects of unresolved processes. These approximations are a source of error in forecasts, caused in part by considerable uncertainty about the optimal value of parameters within each scheme -- parameteric uncertainty. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the best choice of the overarching structure of the parameterization scheme -- structrual uncertainty. Parameter estimation can constrain the first, but may struggle with the second because structural choices are typically discrete. We address this problem in the context of cloud microphysics parameterization schemes by creating a flexible framework wherein structural and parametric uncertainties can be simultaneously constrained. Our scheme makes no assuptions about drop size distribution shape or the functional form of parametrized process rate terms. Instead, these uncertainties are constrained by observations using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler within a Bayesian inference framework. Our scheme, the Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme (BOSS), has flexibility to predict various sets of prognostic drop size distribution moments as well as varying complexity of process rate formulations. We compare idealized probabilistic forecasts from versions of BOSS with varying levels of structural complexity. This work has applications in ensemble forecasts with model physics uncertainty, data assimilation, and cloud microphysics process studies.

Estimating piecewise exponential frailty model with changing prior for baseline hazard function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thamrin, Sri Astuti; Lawi, Armin

2016-02-01

Piecewise exponential models provide a very flexible framework for modelling univariate survival data. It can be used to estimate the effects of different covariates which are influenced by the survival data. Although in a strict sense it is a parametric model, a piecewise exponential hazard can approximate any shape of a parametric baseline hazard. In the parametric baseline hazard, the hazard function for each individual may depend on a set of risk factors or explanatory variables. However, it usually does not explain all such variables which are known or measurable, and these variables become interesting to be considered. This unknown and unobservable risk factor of the hazard function is often termed as the individual's heterogeneity or frailty. This paper analyses the effects of unobserved population heterogeneity in patients' survival times. The issue of model choice through variable selection is also considered. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the influence of the prior for each parameter. We used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method in computing the Bayesian estimator on kidney infection data. The results obtained show that the sex and frailty are substantially associated with survival in this study and the models are relatively quite sensitive to the choice of two different priors.

Semiparametric Identification of Human Arm Dynamics for Flexible Control of a Functional Electrical Stimulation Neuroprosthesis

PubMed Central

Schearer, Eric M.; Liao, Yu-Wei; Perreault, Eric J.; Tresch, Matthew C.; Memberg, William D.; Kirsch, Robert F.; Lynch, Kevin M.

2016-01-01

We present a method to identify the dynamics of a human arm controlled by an implanted functional electrical stimulation neuroprosthesis. The method uses Gaussian process regression to predict shoulder and elbow torques given the shoulder and elbow joint positions and velocities and the electrical stimulation inputs to muscles. We compare the accuracy of torque predictions of nonparametric, semiparametric, and parametric model types. The most accurate of the three model types is a semiparametric Gaussian process model that combines the flexibility of a black box function approximator with the generalization power of a parameterized model. The semiparametric model predicted torques during stimulation of multiple muscles with errors less than 20% of the total muscle torque and passive torque needed to drive the arm. The identified model allows us to define an arbitrary reaching trajectory and approximately determine the muscle stimulations required to drive the arm along that trajectory. PMID:26955041

Unified theory for stochastic modelling of hydroclimatic processes: Preserving marginal distributions, correlation structures, and intermittency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papalexiou, Simon Michael

2018-05-01

Hydroclimatic processes come in all "shapes and sizes". They are characterized by different spatiotemporal correlation structures and probability distributions that can be continuous, mixed-type, discrete or even binary. Simulating such processes by reproducing precisely their marginal distribution and linear correlation structure, including features like intermittency, can greatly improve hydrological analysis and design. Traditionally, modelling schemes are case specific and typically attempt to preserve few statistical moments providing inadequate and potentially risky distribution approximations. Here, a single framework is proposed that unifies, extends, and improves a general-purpose modelling strategy, based on the assumption that any process can emerge by transforming a specific "parent" Gaussian process. A novel mathematical representation of this scheme, introducing parametric correlation transformation functions, enables straightforward estimation of the parent-Gaussian process yielding the target process after the marginal back transformation, while it provides a general description that supersedes previous specific parameterizations, offering a simple, fast and efficient simulation procedure for every stationary process at any spatiotemporal scale. This framework, also applicable for cyclostationary and multivariate modelling, is augmented with flexible parametric correlation structures that parsimoniously describe observed correlations. Real-world simulations of various hydroclimatic processes with different correlation structures and marginals, such as precipitation, river discharge, wind speed, humidity, extreme events per year, etc., as well as a multivariate example, highlight the flexibility, advantages, and complete generality of the method.

A data driven control method for structure vibration suppression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yangmin; Wang, Chao; Shi, Hang; Shi, Junwei

2018-02-01

High radio-frequency space applications have motivated continuous research on vibration suppression of large space structures both in academia and industry. This paper introduces a novel data driven control method to suppress vibrations of flexible structures and experimentally validates the suppression performance. Unlike model-based control approaches, the data driven control method designs a controller directly from the input-output test data of the structure, without requiring parametric dynamics and hence free of system modeling. It utilizes the discrete frequency response via spectral analysis technique and formulates a non-convex optimization problem to obtain optimized controller parameters with a predefined controller structure. Such approach is then experimentally applied on an end-driving flexible beam-mass structure. The experiment results show that the presented method can achieve competitive disturbance rejections compared to a model-based mixed sensitivity controller under the same design criterion but with much less orders and design efforts, demonstrating the proposed data driven control is an effective approach for vibration suppression of flexible structures.

Bayesian Nonparametric Inference – Why and How

PubMed Central

Müller, Peter; Mitra, Riten

2013-01-01

We review inference under models with nonparametric Bayesian (BNP) priors. The discussion follows a set of examples for some common inference problems. The examples are chosen to highlight problems that are challenging for standard parametric inference. We discuss inference for density estimation, clustering, regression and for mixed effects models with random effects distributions. While we focus on arguing for the need for the flexibility of BNP models, we also review some of the more commonly used BNP models, thus hopefully answering a bit of both questions, why and how to use BNP. PMID:24368932

A random-walk/giant-loop model for interphase chromosomes.

PubMed Central

Sachs, R K; van den Engh, G; Trask, B; Yokota, H; Hearst, J E

1995-01-01

Fluorescence in situ hybridization data on distances between defined genomic sequences are used to construct a quantitative model for the overall geometric structure of a human chromosome. We suggest that the large-scale geometry during the G0/G1 part of the cell cycle may consist of flexible chromatin loops, averaging approximately 3 million bp, with a random-walk backbone. A fully explicit, three-parametric polymer model of this random-walk/giant-loop structure can account well for the data. More general models consistent with the data are briefly discussed. PMID:7708711

Modeling the Earth's magnetospheric magnetic field confined within a realistic magnetopause

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsyganenko, N. A.

1995-01-01

Empirical data-based models of the magnetosphereic magnetic field have been widely used during recent years. However, the existing models (Tsyganenko, 1987, 1989a) have three serious deficiencies: (1) an unstable de facto magnetopause, (2) a crude parametrization by the K(sub p) index, and (3) inaccuracies in the equatorial magnetotail B(sub z) values. This paper describes a new approach to the problem; the essential new features are (1) a realistic shape and size of the magnetopause, based on fits to a large number of observed crossing (allowing a parametrization by the solar wind pressure), (2) fully controlled shielding of the magnetic field produced by all magnetospheric current systems, (3) new flexible representations for the tail and ring currents, and (4) a new directional criterion for fitting the model field to spacecraft data, providing improved accuracy for field line mapping. Results are presented from initial efforts to create models assembled from these modules and calibrated against spacecraft data sets.

A Flexible and Efficient Method for Solving Ill-Posed Linear Integral Equations of the First Kind for Noisy Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antokhin, I. I.

2017-06-01

We propose an efficient and flexible method for solving Fredholm and Abel integral equations of the first kind, frequently appearing in astrophysics. These equations present an ill-posed problem. Our method is based on solving them on a so-called compact set of functions and/or using Tikhonov's regularization. Both approaches are non-parametric and do not require any theoretic model, apart from some very loose a priori constraints on the unknown function. The two approaches can be used independently or in a combination. The advantage of the method, apart from its flexibility, is that it gives uniform convergence of the approximate solution to the exact one, as the errors of input data tend to zero. Simulated and astrophysical examples are presented.

Effects of the interaction range on structural phases of flexible polymers.

PubMed

Gross, J; Neuhaus, T; Vogel, T; Bachmann, M

2013-02-21

We systematically investigate how the range of interaction between non-bonded monomers influences the formation of structural phases of elastic, flexible polymers. Massively parallel replica-exchange simulations of a generic, coarse-grained model, performed partly on graphics processing units and in multiple-gaussian modified ensembles, pave the way for the construction of the structural phase diagram, parametrized by interaction range and temperature. Conformational transitions between gas-like, liquid, and diverse solid (pseudo) phases are identified by microcanonical statistical inflection-point analysis. We find evidence for finite-size effects that cause the crossover of "collapse" and "freezing" transitions for very short interaction ranges.

Flexible parametric survival models built on age-specific antimüllerian hormone percentiles are better predictors of menopause.

PubMed

Ramezani Tehrani, Fahimeh; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Steyerberg, Ewout; Azizi, Fereidoun

2016-06-01

This study aimed to improve existing prediction models for age at menopause. We identified all reproductive aged women with regular menstrual cycles who met our eligibility criteria (n = 1,015) in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study-an ongoing population-based cohort study initiated in 1998. Participants were examined every 3 years and their reproductive histories were recorded. Blood levels of antimüllerian hormone (AMH) were measured at the time of recruitment. Age at menopause was estimated based on serum concentrations of AMH using flexible parametric survival models. The optimum model was selected according to Akaike Information Criteria and the realness of the range of predicted median menopause age. We followed study participants for a median of 9.8 years during which 277 women reached menopause and found that a spline-based proportional odds model including age-specific AMH percentiles as the covariate performed well in terms of statistical criteria and provided the most clinically relevant and realistic predictions. The range of predicted median age at menopause for this model was 47.1 to 55.9 years. For those who reached menopause, the median of the absolute mean difference between actual and predicted age at menopause was 1.9 years (interquartile range 2.9). The model including the age-specific AMH percentiles as the covariate and using proportional odds as its covariate metrics meets all the statistical criteria for the best model and provides the most clinically relevant and realistic predictions for age at menopause for reproductive-aged women.

Bayesian Local Contamination Models for Multivariate Outliers

PubMed Central

Page, Garritt L.; Dunson, David B.

2013-01-01

In studies where data are generated from multiple locations or sources it is common for there to exist observations that are quite unlike the majority. Motivated by the application of establishing a reference value in an inter-laboratory setting when outlying labs are present, we propose a local contamination model that is able to accommodate unusual multivariate realizations in a flexible way. The proposed method models the process level of a hierarchical model using a mixture with a parametric component and a possibly nonparametric contamination. Much of the flexibility in the methodology is achieved by allowing varying random subsets of the elements in the lab-specific mean vectors to be allocated to the contamination component. Computational methods are developed and the methodology is compared to three other possible approaches using a simulation study. We apply the proposed method to a NIST/NOAA sponsored inter-laboratory study which motivated the methodological development. PMID:24363465

The effects of wing flexibility on the flight performance and stability of flapping wing micro air vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bluman, James Edward

Insect wings are flexible. However, the influence of wing flexibility on the flight dynamics of insects and flapping wing micro air vehicles is unknown. Most studies in the literature consider rigid wings and conclude that the hover equilibrium is unstable. This dissertation shows that a flapping wing flyer with flexible wings exhibits stable natural modes of the open loop system in hover, never reported before. The free-flight insect flight dynamics is modeled for both flexible and rigid wings. Wing mass and inertia are included in the nonlinear equations of motion. The flapping wing aerodynamics are modeled using a quasi-steady model, a well-validated two dimensional Navier Stokes model, and a coupled, two dimensional Navier Stokes - Euler Bernoulli beam model that accurately models the fluid-structure interaction of flexible wings. Hover equilibrium is systematically and efficiently determined with a coupled quasi-steady and Navier-Stokes equation trimmer. The power and stability are reported at hover while parametrically varying the pitch axis location for rigid wings and the structural stiffness for flexible wings. The results indicate that the rigid wings possess an unstable oscillatory mode mainly due to their pitch sensitivity to horizontal velocity perturbations. The flexible wings stabilize this mode primarily by adjusting their wing shape in the presence of perturbations. The wing's response to perturbations generates significantly more horizontal velocity damping and pitch rate damping than in rigid wings. Furthermore, the flexible wings experience substantially less wing wake interaction, which, for rigid wings, is destabilizing. The power required to hover a fruit fly with actively rotating rigid wings varies between 16.9 and 34.2 W/kg. The optimal power occurs when the pitch axis is located at 30% chord, similar to some biological observations. Flexible wings require 23.1 to 38.5 W/kg. However, flexible wings exhibit more stable system dynamics and allow for simpler and lighter designs since they do not require pitch actuation mechanisms. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of wing flexibility on the hovering stability of flapping flyers, which can explain the ranges of flexibility seen in insects and can inform designs of synthetic flapping wing robots.

Nonparametric Bayesian models for a spatial covariance.

PubMed

Reich, Brian J; Fuentes, Montserrat

2012-01-01

A crucial step in the analysis of spatial data is to estimate the spatial correlation function that determines the relationship between a spatial process at two locations. The standard approach to selecting the appropriate correlation function is to use prior knowledge or exploratory analysis, such as a variogram analysis, to select the correct parametric correlation function. Rather that selecting a particular parametric correlation function, we treat the covariance function as an unknown function to be estimated from the data. We propose a flexible prior for the correlation function to provide robustness to the choice of correlation function. We specify the prior for the correlation function using spectral methods and the Dirichlet process prior, which is a common prior for an unknown distribution function. Our model does not require Gaussian data or spatial locations on a regular grid. The approach is demonstrated using a simulation study as well as an analysis of California air pollution data.

Liquid Adsorption of Organic Compounds on Hematite α-Fe2O3 Using ReaxFF.

PubMed

Chia, Chung-Lim; Avendaño, Carlos; Siperstein, Flor R; Filip, Sorin

2017-10-24

ReaxFF-based molecular dynamics simulations are used in this work to study the effect of the polarity of adsorbed molecules in the liquid phase on the structure and polarization of hematite (α-Fe 2 O 3 ). We compared the adsorption of organic molecules with different polarities on a rigid hematite surface and on a flexible and polarizable surface. We show that the displacements of surface atoms and surface polarization in a flexible hematite model are proportional to the adsorbed molecule's polarity. The increase in electrostatic interactions resulting from charge transfer in the outermost solid atoms in a flexible hematite model results in better-defined adsorbed layers that are less ordered than those obtained assuming a rigid solid. These results suggest that care must be taken when parametrizing empirical transferable force fields because the calculated charges on a solid slab in vacuum may not be representative of a real system, especially when the solid is in contact with a polar liquid.

A global goodness-of-fit test for receiver operating characteristic curve analysis via the bootstrap method.

PubMed

Zou, Kelly H; Resnic, Frederic S; Talos, Ion-Florin; Goldberg-Zimring, Daniel; Bhagwat, Jui G; Haker, Steven J; Kikinis, Ron; Jolesz, Ferenc A; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2005-10-01

Medical classification accuracy studies often yield continuous data based on predictive models for treatment outcomes. A popular method for evaluating the performance of diagnostic tests is the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The main objective was to develop a global statistical hypothesis test for assessing the goodness-of-fit (GOF) for parametric ROC curves via the bootstrap. A simple log (or logit) and a more flexible Box-Cox normality transformations were applied to untransformed or transformed data from two clinical studies to predict complications following percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) and for image-guided neurosurgical resection results predicted by tumor volume, respectively. We compared a non-parametric with a parametric binormal estimate of the underlying ROC curve. To construct such a GOF test, we used the non-parametric and parametric areas under the curve (AUCs) as the metrics, with a resulting p value reported. In the interventional cardiology example, logit and Box-Cox transformations of the predictive probabilities led to satisfactory AUCs (AUC=0.888; p=0.78, and AUC=0.888; p=0.73, respectively), while in the brain tumor resection example, log and Box-Cox transformations of the tumor size also led to satisfactory AUCs (AUC=0.898; p=0.61, and AUC=0.899; p=0.42, respectively). In contrast, significant departures from GOF were observed without applying any transformation prior to assuming a binormal model (AUC=0.766; p=0.004, and AUC=0.831; p=0.03), respectively. In both studies the p values suggested that transformations were important to consider before applying any binormal model to estimate the AUC. Our analyses also demonstrated and confirmed the predictive values of different classifiers for determining the interventional complications following PCIs and resection outcomes in image-guided neurosurgery.

Thin-Film Photovoltaic Solar Array Parametric Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, David J.; Kerslake, Thomas W.; Hepp, Aloysius F.; Jacobs, Mark K.; Ponnusamy, Deva

2000-01-01

This paper summarizes a study that had the objective to develop a model and parametrically determine the circumstances for which lightweight thin-film photovoltaic solar arrays would be more beneficial, in terms of mass and cost, than arrays using high-efficiency crystalline solar cells. Previous studies considering arrays with near-term thin-film technology for Earth orbiting applications are briefly reviewed. The present study uses a parametric approach that evaluated the performance of lightweight thin-film arrays with cell efficiencies ranging from 5 to 20 percent. The model developed for this study is described in some detail. Similar mass and cost trends for each array option were found across eight missions of various power levels in locations ranging from Venus to Jupiter. The results for one specific mission, a main belt asteroid tour, indicate that only moderate thin-film cell efficiency (approx. 12 percent) is necessary to match the mass of arrays using crystalline cells with much greater efficiency (35 percent multi-junction GaAs based and 20 percent thin-silicon). Regarding cost, a 12 percent efficient thin-film array is projected to cost about half is much as a 4-junction GaAs array. While efficiency improvements beyond 12 percent did not significantly further improve the mass and cost benefits for thin-film arrays, higher efficiency will be needed to mitigate the spacecraft-level impacts associated with large deployed array areas. A low-temperature approach to depositing thin-film cells on lightweight, flexible plastic substrates is briefly described. The paper concludes with the observation that with the characteristics assumed for this study, ultra-lightweight arrays using efficient, thin-film cells on flexible substrates may become a leading alternative for a wide variety of space missions.

Automated a complex computer aided design concept generated using macros programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizal Ramly, Mohammad; Asrokin, Azharrudin; Abd Rahman, Safura; Zulkifly, Nurul Ain Md

2013-12-01

Changing a complex Computer Aided design profile such as car and aircraft surfaces has always been difficult and challenging. The capability of CAD software such as AutoCAD and CATIA show that a simple configuration of a CAD design can be easily modified without hassle, but it is not the case with complex design configuration. Design changes help users to test and explore various configurations of the design concept before the production of a model. The purpose of this study is to look into macros programming as parametric method of the commercial aircraft design. Macros programming is a method where the configurations of the design are done by recording a script of commands, editing the data value and adding a certain new command line to create an element of parametric design. The steps and the procedure to create a macro programming are discussed, besides looking into some difficulties during the process of creation and advantage of its usage. Generally, the advantages of macros programming as a method of parametric design are; allowing flexibility for design exploration, increasing the usability of the design solution, allowing proper contained by the model while restricting others and real time feedback changes.

Estimating solar ultraviolet irradiance (290-385 nm) by means of the spectral parametric models: SPCTRAL2 and SMARTS2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foyo-Moreno, I.; Vida, J.; Olmo, F. J.; Alados-Arboledas, L.

2000-11-01

Since the discovery of the ozone depletion in Antarctic and the globally declining trend of stratospheric ozone concentration, public and scientific concern has been raised in the last decades. A very important consequence of this fact is the increased broadband and spectral UV radiation in the environment and the biological effects and heath risks that may take place in the near future. The absence of widespread measurements of this radiometric flux has lead to the development and use of alternative estimation procedures such as the parametric approaches. Parametric models compute the radiant energy using available atmospheric parameters. Some parametric models compute the global solar irradiance at surface level by addition of its direct beam and diffuse components. In the present work, we have developed a comparison between two cloudless sky parametrization schemes. Both methods provide an estimation of the solar spectral irradiance that can be integrated spectrally within the limits of interest. For this test we have used data recorded in a radiometric station located at Granada (37.180°N, 3.580°W, 660 m a.m.s.l.), an inland location. The database includes hourly values of the relevant variables covering the years 1994-95. The performance of the models has been tested in relation to their predictive capability of global solar irradiance in the UV range (290-385 nm). After our study, it appears that information concerning the aerosol radiative effects is fundamental in order to obtain a good estimation. The original version of SPCTRAL2 provides estimates of the experimental values with negligible mean bias deviation. This suggests not only the appropriateness of the model but also the convenience of the aerosol features fixed in it to Granada conditions. SMARTS2 model offers increased flexibility concerning the selection of different aerosol models included in the code and provides the best results when the selected models are those considered as urban. Although SMARTS2 provide slightly worse results, both models give estimates of solar ultraviolet irradiance with mean bias deviation below 5%, and root mean square deviation close to experimental errors.

A flexible cure rate model for spatially correlated survival data based on generalized extreme value distribution and Gaussian process priors.

PubMed

Li, Dan; Wang, Xia; Dey, Dipak K

2016-09-01

Our present work proposes a new survival model in a Bayesian context to analyze right-censored survival data for populations with a surviving fraction, assuming that the log failure time follows a generalized extreme value distribution. Many applications require a more flexible modeling of covariate information than a simple linear or parametric form for all covariate effects. It is also necessary to include the spatial variation in the model, since it is sometimes unexplained by the covariates considered in the analysis. Therefore, the nonlinear covariate effects and the spatial effects are incorporated into the systematic component of our model. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a natural framework for modeling potentially nonlinear relationship and have recently become extremely powerful in nonlinear regression. Our proposed model adopts a semiparametric Bayesian approach by imposing a GP prior on the nonlinear structure of continuous covariate. With the consideration of data availability and computational complexity, the conditionally autoregressive distribution is placed on the region-specific frailties to handle spatial correlation. The flexibility and gains of our proposed model are illustrated through analyses of simulated data examples as well as a dataset involving a colon cancer clinical trial from the state of Iowa. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Changes in flexibility upon binding: Application of the self-consistent pair contact probability method to protein-protein interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canino, Lawrence S.; Shen, Tongye; McCammon, J. Andrew

2002-12-01

We extend the self-consistent pair contact probability method to the evaluation of the partition function for a protein complex at thermodynamic equilibrium. Specifically, we adapt the method for multichain models and introduce a parametrization for amino acid-specific pairwise interactions. This method is similar to the Gaussian network model but allows for the adjusting of the strengths of native state contacts. The method is first validated on a high resolution x-ray crystal structure of bovine Pancreatic Phospholipase A2 by comparing calculated B-factors with reported values. We then examine binding-induced changes in flexibility in protein-protein complexes, comparing computed results with those obtained from x-ray crystal structures and molecular dynamics simulations. In particular, we focus on the mouse acetylcholinesterase:fasciculin II and the human α-thrombin:thrombomodulin complexes.

Handling qualities of large flexible control-configured aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaim, R. L.

1980-01-01

The effects on handling qualities of low frequency symmetric elastic mode interaction with the rigid body dynamics of a large flexible aircraft was analyzed by use of a mathematical pilot modeling computer simulation. An extension of the optimal control model for a human pilot was made so that the mode interaction effects on the pilot's control task could be assessed. Pilot ratings were determined for a longitudinal tracking task with parametric variations in the undamped natural frequencies of the two lowest frequency symmetric elastic modes made to induce varying amounts of mode interaction. Relating numerical performance index values associated with the frequency variations used in several dynamic cases, to a numerical Cooper-Harper pilot rating has proved successful in discriminating when the mathematical pilot can or cannot separate rigid from elastic response in the tracking task.

Modeling the Multi-Body System Dynamics of a Flexible Solar Sail Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Young; Stough, Robert; Whorton, Mark

2005-01-01

Solar sail propulsion systems enable a wide range of space missions that are not feasible with current propulsion technology. Hardware concepts and analytical methods have matured through ground development to the point that a flight validation mission is now realizable. Much attention has been given to modeling the structural dynamics of the constituent elements, but to date an integrated system level dynamics analysis has been lacking. Using a multi-body dynamics and control analysis tool called TREETOPS, the coupled dynamics of the sailcraft bus, sail membranes, flexible booms, and control system sensors and actuators of a representative solar sail spacecraft are investigated to assess system level dynamics and control issues. With this tool, scaling issues and parametric trade studies can be performed to study achievable performance, control authority requirements, and control/structure interaction assessments.

Experiments study on attitude coupling control method for flexible spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jie; Li, Dongxu

2018-06-01

High pointing accuracy and stabilization are significant for spacecrafts to carry out Earth observing, laser communication and space exploration missions. However, when a spacecraft undergoes large angle maneuver, the excited elastic oscillation of flexible appendages, for instance, solar wing and onboard antenna, would downgrade the performance of the spacecraft platform. This paper proposes a coupling control method, which synthesizes the adaptive sliding mode controller and the positive position feedback (PPF) controller, to control the attitude and suppress the elastic vibration simultaneously. Because of its prominent performance for attitude tracking and stabilization, the proposed method is capable of slewing the flexible spacecraft with a large angle. Also, the method is robust to parametric uncertainties of the spacecraft model. Numerical simulations are carried out with a hub-plate system which undergoes a single-axis attitude maneuver. An attitude control testbed for the flexible spacecraft is established and experiments are conducted to validate the coupling control method. Both numerical and experimental results demonstrate that the method discussed above can effectively decrease the stabilization time and improve the attitude accuracy of the flexible spacecraft.

A linear parameter-varying multiobjective control law design based on youla parametrization for a flexible blended wing body aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demourant, F.; Ferreres, G.

2013-12-01

This article presents a methodology for a linear parameter-varying (LPV) multiobjective flight control law design for a blended wing body (BWB) aircraft and results. So, the method is a direct design of a parametrized control law (with respect to some measured flight parameters) through a multimodel convex design to optimize a set of specifications on the full-flight domain and different mass cases. The methodology is based on the Youla parameterization which is very useful since closed loop specifications are affine with respect to Youla parameter. The LPV multiobjective design method is detailed and applied to the BWB flexible aircraft example.

Interfacial characterization of flexible hybrid electronics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafian, Sara; Amirkhizi, Alireza V.; Stapleton, Scott

2018-03-01

Flexible Hybrid Electronics (FHEs) are the new generation of electronics combining flexible plastic film substrates with electronic devices. Besides the electrical features, design improvements of FHEs depend on the prediction of their mechanical and failure behavior. Debonding of electronic components from the flexible substrate is one of the most common and critical failures of these devices, therefore, the experimental determination of material and interface properties is of great importance in the prediction of failure mechanisms. Traditional interface characterization involves isolated shear and normal mode tests such as the double cantilever beam (DCB) and end notch flexure (ENF) tests. However, due to the thin, flexible nature of the materials and manufacturing restrictions, tests mirroring traditional interface characterization experiments may not always be possible. The ideal goal of this research is to design experiments such that each mode of fracture is isolated. However, due to the complex nonlinear nature of the response and small geometries of FHEs, design of the proper tests to characterize the interface properties can be significantly time and cost consuming. Hence numerical modeling has been implemented to design these novel characterization experiments. This research involves loading case and specimen geometry parametric studies using numerical modeling to design future experiments where either shear or normal fracture modes are dominant. These virtual experiments will provide a foundation for designing similar tests for many different types of flexible electronics and predicting the failure mechanism independent of the specific FHE materials.

Bayesian quantile regression-based partially linear mixed-effects joint models for longitudinal data with multiple features.

PubMed

Zhang, Hanze; Huang, Yangxin; Wang, Wei; Chen, Henian; Langland-Orban, Barbara

2017-01-01

In longitudinal AIDS studies, it is of interest to investigate the relationship between HIV viral load and CD4 cell counts, as well as the complicated time effect. Most of common models to analyze such complex longitudinal data are based on mean-regression, which fails to provide efficient estimates due to outliers and/or heavy tails. Quantile regression-based partially linear mixed-effects models, a special case of semiparametric models enjoying benefits of both parametric and nonparametric models, have the flexibility to monitor the viral dynamics nonparametrically and detect the varying CD4 effects parametrically at different quantiles of viral load. Meanwhile, it is critical to consider various data features of repeated measurements, including left-censoring due to a limit of detection, covariate measurement error, and asymmetric distribution. In this research, we first establish a Bayesian joint models that accounts for all these data features simultaneously in the framework of quantile regression-based partially linear mixed-effects models. The proposed models are applied to analyze the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) data. Simulation studies are also conducted to assess the performance of the proposed methods under different scenarios.

Keeping data continuous when analyzing the prognostic impact of a tumor marker: an example with cathepsin D in breast cancer.

PubMed

Bossard, N; Descotes, F; Bremond, A G; Bobin, Y; De Saint Hilaire, P; Golfier, F; Awada, A; Mathevet, P M; Berrerd, L; Barbier, Y; Estève, J

2003-11-01

The prognostic value of cathepsin D has been recently recognized, but as many quantitative tumor markers, its clinical use remains unclear partly because of methodological issues in defining cut-off values. Guidelines have been proposed for analyzing quantitative prognostic factors, underlining the need for keeping data continuous, instead of categorizing them. Flexible approaches, parametric and non-parametric, have been proposed in order to improve the knowledge of the functional form relating a continuous factor to the risk. We studied the prognostic value of cathepsin D in a retrospective hospital cohort of 771 patients with breast cancer, and focused our overall survival analysis, based on the Cox regression, on two flexible approaches: smoothing splines and fractional polynomials. We also determined a cut-off value from the maximum likelihood estimate of a threshold model. These different approaches complemented each other for (1) identifying the functional form relating cathepsin D to the risk, and obtaining a cut-off value and (2) optimizing the adjustment for complex covariate like age at diagnosis in the final multivariate Cox model. We found a significant increase in the death rate, reaching 70% with a doubling of the level of cathepsin D, after the threshold of 37.5 pmol mg(-1). The proper prognostic impact of this marker could be confirmed and a methodology providing appropriate ways to use markers in clinical practice was proposed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conroy, Charlie; Van Dokkum, Pieter G.; Villaume, Alexa

It is now well-established that the stellar initial mass function (IMF) can be determined from the absorption line spectra of old stellar systems, and this has been used to measure the IMF and its variation across the early-type galaxy population. Previous work focused on measuring the slope of the IMF over one or more stellar mass intervals, implicitly assuming that this is a good description of the IMF and that the IMF has a universal low-mass cutoff. In this work we consider more flexible IMFs, including two-component power laws with a variable low-mass cutoff and a general non-parametric model. Wemore » demonstrate with mock spectra that the detailed shape of the IMF can be accurately recovered as long as the data quality is high (S/N ≳ 300 Å{sup −1}) and cover a wide wavelength range (0.4–1.0 μ m). We apply these flexible IMF models to a high S/N spectrum of the center of the massive elliptical galaxy NGC 1407. Fitting the spectrum with non-parametric IMFs, we find that the IMF in the center shows a continuous rise extending toward the hydrogen-burning limit, with a behavior that is well-approximated by a power law with an index of −2.7. These results provide strong evidence for the existence of extreme (super-Salpeter) IMFs in the cores of massive galaxies.« less

Water models based on a single potential energy surface and different molecular degrees of freedom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saint-Martin, Humberto; Hernández-Cobos, Jorge; Ortega-Blake, Iván

2005-06-01

Up to now it has not been possible to neatly assess whether a deficient performance of a model is due to poor parametrization of the force field or the lack of inclusion of enough molecular properties. This work compares several molecular models in the framework of the same force field, which was designed to include many-body nonadditive effects: (a) a polarizable and flexible molecule with constraints that account for the quantal nature of the vibration [B. Hess, H. Saint-Martin, and H. J. C. Berendsen, J. Chem. Phys. 116, 9602 (2002), H. Saint-Martin, B. Hess, and H. J. C. Berendsen, J. Chem. Phys. 120, 11133 (2004)], (b) a polarizable and classically flexible molecule [H. Saint-Martin, J. Hernández-Cobos, M. I. Bernal-Uruchurtu, I. Ortega-Blake, and H. J. C. Berendsen, J. Chem. Phys. 113, 10899 (2000)], (c) a polarizable and rigid molecule, and finally (d) a nonpolarizable and rigid molecule. The goal is to determine how significant the different molecular properties are. The results indicate that all factors—nonadditivity, polarizability, and intramolecular flexibility—are important. Still, approximations can be made in order to diminish the computational cost of the simulations with a small decrease in the accuracy of the predictions, provided that those approximations are counterbalanced by the proper inclusion of an effective molecular property, that is, an average molecular geometry or an average dipole. Hence instead of building an effective force field by parametrizing it in order to reproduce the properties of a specific phase, a building approach is proposed that is based on adequately restricting the molecular flexibility and/or polarizability of a model potential fitted to unimolecular properties, pair interactions, and many-body nonadditive contributions. In this manner, the same parental model can be used to simulate the same substance under a wide range of thermodynamic conditions. An additional advantage of this approach is that, as the force field improves by the quality of the molecular calculations, all levels of modeling can be improved.

Calibration of a flexible measurement system based on industrial articulated robot and structured light sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, Nan; Wang, Kun; Xie, Zexiao; Ren, Ping

2017-05-01

To realize online rapid measurement for complex workpieces, a flexible measurement system based on an articulated industrial robot with a structured light sensor mounted on the end-effector is developed. A method for calibrating the system parameters is proposed in which the hand-eye transformation parameters and the robot kinematic parameters are synthesized in the calibration process. An initial hand-eye calibration is first performed using a standard sphere as the calibration target. By applying the modified complete and parametrically continuous method, we establish a synthesized kinematic model that combines the initial hand-eye transformation and distal link parameters as a whole with the sensor coordinate system as the tool frame. According to the synthesized kinematic model, an error model is constructed based on spheres' center-to-center distance errors. Consequently, the error model parameters can be identified in a calibration experiment using a three-standard-sphere target. Furthermore, the redundancy of error model parameters is eliminated to ensure the accuracy and robustness of the parameter identification. Calibration and measurement experiments are carried out based on an ER3A-C60 robot. The experimental results show that the proposed calibration method enjoys high measurement accuracy, and this efficient and flexible system is suitable for online measurement in industrial scenes.

A Bayesian goodness of fit test and semiparametric generalization of logistic regression with measurement data.

PubMed

Schörgendorfer, Angela; Branscum, Adam J; Hanson, Timothy E

2013-06-01

Logistic regression is a popular tool for risk analysis in medical and population health science. With continuous response data, it is common to create a dichotomous outcome for logistic regression analysis by specifying a threshold for positivity. Fitting a linear regression to the nondichotomized response variable assuming a logistic sampling model for the data has been empirically shown to yield more efficient estimates of odds ratios than ordinary logistic regression of the dichotomized endpoint. We illustrate that risk inference is not robust to departures from the parametric logistic distribution. Moreover, the model assumption of proportional odds is generally not satisfied when the condition of a logistic distribution for the data is violated, leading to biased inference from a parametric logistic analysis. We develop novel Bayesian semiparametric methodology for testing goodness of fit of parametric logistic regression with continuous measurement data. The testing procedures hold for any cutoff threshold and our approach simultaneously provides the ability to perform semiparametric risk estimation. Bayes factors are calculated using the Savage-Dickey ratio for testing the null hypothesis of logistic regression versus a semiparametric generalization. We propose a fully Bayesian and a computationally efficient empirical Bayesian approach to testing, and we present methods for semiparametric estimation of risks, relative risks, and odds ratios when parametric logistic regression fails. Theoretical results establish the consistency of the empirical Bayes test. Results from simulated data show that the proposed approach provides accurate inference irrespective of whether parametric assumptions hold or not. Evaluation of risk factors for obesity shows that different inferences are derived from an analysis of a real data set when deviations from a logistic distribution are permissible in a flexible semiparametric framework. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Novel prescribed performance neural control of a flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicle with unknown initial errors.

PubMed

Bu, Xiangwei; Wu, Xiaoyan; Zhu, Fujing; Huang, Jiaqi; Ma, Zhen; Zhang, Rui

2015-11-01

A novel prescribed performance neural controller with unknown initial errors is addressed for the longitudinal dynamic model of a flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicle (FAHV) subject to parametric uncertainties. Different from traditional prescribed performance control (PPC) requiring that the initial errors have to be known accurately, this paper investigates the tracking control without accurate initial errors via exploiting a new performance function. A combined neural back-stepping and minimal learning parameter (MLP) technology is employed for exploring a prescribed performance controller that provides robust tracking of velocity and altitude reference trajectories. The highlight is that the transient performance of velocity and altitude tracking errors is satisfactory and the computational load of neural approximation is low. Finally, numerical simulation results from a nonlinear FAHV model demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed strategy. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new approach to correct the QT interval for changes in heart rate using a nonparametric regression model in beagle dogs.

PubMed

Watanabe, Hiroyuki; Miyazaki, Hiroyasu

2006-01-01

Over- and/or under-correction of QT intervals for changes in heart rate may lead to misleading conclusions and/or masking the potential of a drug to prolong the QT interval. This study examines a nonparametric regression model (Loess Smoother) to adjust the QT interval for differences in heart rate, with an improved fitness over a wide range of heart rates. 240 sets of (QT, RR) observations collected from each of 8 conscious and non-treated beagle dogs were used as the materials for investigation. The fitness of the nonparametric regression model to the QT-RR relationship was compared with four models (individual linear regression, common linear regression, and Bazett's and Fridericia's correlation models) with reference to Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Residuals were visually assessed. The bias-corrected AIC of the nonparametric regression model was the best of the models examined in this study. Although the parametric models did not fit, the nonparametric regression model improved the fitting at both fast and slow heart rates. The nonparametric regression model is the more flexible method compared with the parametric method. The mathematical fit for linear regression models was unsatisfactory at both fast and slow heart rates, while the nonparametric regression model showed significant improvement at all heart rates in beagle dogs.

Parametric Dependencies in Aero-Elastic, Articulated, Flapping Flight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, D. J.; Persson, P.; Peraire, J.; Breuer, K. S.

2006-11-01

Aero-elastic coupling and wing articulation both play a vital role in the generation of lift and propulsion in birds, bats and fish. We present results from a computational study that employs several tools of varying fidelity to explore the role of flexible structures on the performance and efficiency of bird and bat flight mechanics. The tools (both 2-D and 3-D) include a Wake only ``Betz'' analysis following the work of Hall, Pigott and Hall (J. Aircaft, 1998), a potential flow model coupled to a free-vortex wake (Willis, Peraire & White, AIAA 2005-0854), and lastly, a discontinuous Galerkin solver (Persson & Peraire, AIAA 2006-0113) for the full Navier-Stokes equations. Structural models include springs, beams and membranes to represent compliant biological structures. The results demonstrate the changes in efficiency that can be achieved by different parametric variations in the flight behavior, including the effects of increasing kinematic degrees of freedom (e.g. articulated wings) and the effect of compliance in wing and skeletal structures.

Numerical model of solar dynamic radiator for parametric analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.

1989-01-01

Growth power requirements for Space Station Freedom will be met through addition of 25 kW solar dynamic (SD) power modules. Extensive thermal and power cycle modeling capabilities have been developed which are powerful tools in Station design and analysis, but which prove cumbersome and costly for simple component preliminary design studies. In order to aid in refining the SD radiator to the mature design stage, a simple and flexible numerical model was developed. The model simulates heat transfer and fluid flow performance of the radiator and calculates area mass and impact survivability for many combinations of flow tube and panel configurations, fluid and material properties, and environmental and cycle variations.

On a self-consistent representation of earth models, with an application to the computing of internal flattening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denis, C.; Ibrahim, A.

Self-consistent parametric earth models are discussed in terms of a flexible numerical code. The density profile of each layer is represented as a polynomial, and figures of gravity, mass, mean density, hydrostatic pressure, and moment of inertia are derived. The polynomial representation also allows computation of the first order flattening of the internal strata of some models, using a Gauss-Legendre quadrature with a rapidly converging iteration technique. Agreement with measured geophysical data is obtained, and algorithm for estimation of the geometric flattening for any equidense surface identified by its fractional radius is developed. The program can also be applied in studies of planetary and stellar models.

Transport properties of carbon dioxide and methane from molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Aimoli, C G; Maginn, E J; Abreu, C R A

2014-10-07

Transport properties of carbon dioxide and methane are predicted for temperatures between (273.15 and 573.15) K and pressures up to 800 MPa by molecular dynamics simulations. Viscosities and thermal conductivities were obtained through the Green-Kubo formalism, whereas the Einstein relation was used to provide self-diffusion coefficient estimates. The differences in property predictions due to the force field nature and parametrization were investigated by the comparison of seven different CO2 models (two single-site models, three rigid three-site models, and two fully flexible three-site models) and three different CH4 models (two single-site models and one fully flexible five-site model). The simulation results show good agreement with experimental data, except for thermal conductivities at low densities. The molecular structure and force field parameters play an important role in the accuracy of the simulations, which is within the experimental deviations reported for viscosities and self-diffusion coefficients considering the most accurate CO2 and CH4 models studied. On the other hand, the molecular flexibility does not seem to improve accuracy, since the explicit account of vibrational and bending degrees of freedom in the CO2 flexible models leads to slightly less accurate results. Nonetheless, the use of a correctional term to account for vibrational modes in rigid models generally improves estimations of thermal conductivity values. At extreme densities, the caging effect observed with single-site representations of the molecules restrains mobility and leads to an unphysical overestimation of viscosities and, conversely, to the underestimation of self-diffusion coefficients. This result may help to better understand the limits of applicability of such force fields concerning structural and transport properties of dense systems.

Hybrid modeling as a QbD/PAT tool in process development: an industrial E. coli case study.

PubMed

von Stosch, Moritz; Hamelink, Jan-Martijn; Oliveira, Rui

2016-05-01

Process understanding is emphasized in the process analytical technology initiative and the quality by design paradigm to be essential for manufacturing of biopharmaceutical products with consistent high quality. A typical approach to developing a process understanding is applying a combination of design of experiments with statistical data analysis. Hybrid semi-parametric modeling is investigated as an alternative method to pure statistical data analysis. The hybrid model framework provides flexibility to select model complexity based on available data and knowledge. Here, a parametric dynamic bioreactor model is integrated with a nonparametric artificial neural network that describes biomass and product formation rates as function of varied fed-batch fermentation conditions for high cell density heterologous protein production with E. coli. Our model can accurately describe biomass growth and product formation across variations in induction temperature, pH and feed rates. The model indicates that while product expression rate is a function of early induction phase conditions, it is negatively impacted as productivity increases. This could correspond with physiological changes due to cytoplasmic product accumulation. Due to the dynamic nature of the model, rational process timing decisions can be made and the impact of temporal variations in process parameters on product formation and process performance can be assessed, which is central for process understanding.

Control of nonlinear flexible space structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jianjun

With the advances made in computer technology and efficiency of numerical algorithms over last decade, the MPC strategies have become quite popular among control community. However, application of MPC or GPC to flexible space structure control has not been explored adequately in the literature. The work presented in this thesis primarily focuses on application of GPC to control of nonlinear flexible space structures. This thesis is particularly devoted to the development of various approximate dynamic models, design and assessment of candidate controllers, and extensive numerical simulations for a realistic multibody flexible spacecraft, namely, Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO)---a Prometheus class of spacecraft proposed by NASA for deep space exploratory missions. A stable GPC algorithm is developed for Multi-Input-Multi-Output (MIMO) systems. An end-point weighting (penalty) is used in the GPC cost function to guarantee the nominal stability of the closed-loop system. A method is given to compute the desired end-point state from the desired output trajectory. The methodologies based on Fake Algebraic Riccati Equation (FARE) and constrained nonlinear optimization, are developed for synthesis of state weighting matrix. This makes this formulation more practical. A stable reconfigurable GPC architecture is presented and its effectiveness is demonstrated on both aircraft as well as spacecraft model. A representative in-orbit maneuver is used for assessing the performance of various control strategies using various design models. Different approximate dynamic models used for analysis include linear single body flexible structure, nonlinear single body flexible structure, and nonlinear multibody flexible structure. The control laws evaluated include traditional GPC, feedback linearization-based GPC (FLGPC), reconfigurable GPC, and nonlinear dissipative control. These various control schemes are evaluated for robust stability and robust performance in the presence of parametric uncertainties and input disturbances. Finally, the conclusions are made with regard to the efficacy of these controllers and potential directions for future research.

Tunable, Flexible and Efficient Optimization of Control Pulses for Superconducting Qubits, part II - Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AsséMat, Elie; Machnes, Shai; Tannor, David; Wilhelm-Mauch, Frank

In part I, we presented the theoretic foundations of the GOAT algorithm for the optimal control of quantum systems. Here in part II, we focus on several applications of GOAT to superconducting qubits architecture. First, we consider a control-Z gate on Xmons qubits with an Erf parametrization of the optimal pulse. We show that a fast and accurate gate can be obtained with only 16 parameters, as compared to hundreds of parameters required in other algorithms. We present numerical evidences that such parametrization should allow an efficient in-situ calibration of the pulse. Next, we consider the flux-tunable coupler by IBM. We show optimization can be carried out in a more realistic model of the system than was employed in the original study, which is expected to further simplify the calibration process. Moreover, GOAT reduced the complexity of the optimal pulse to only 6 Fourier components, composed with analytic wrappers.

Assessing noninferiority in a three-arm trial using the Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Ghosh, Pulak; Nathoo, Farouk; Gönen, Mithat; Tiwari, Ram C

2011-07-10

Non-inferiority trials, which aim to demonstrate that a test product is not worse than a competitor by more than a pre-specified small amount, are of great importance to the pharmaceutical community. As a result, methodology for designing and analyzing such trials is required, and developing new methods for such analysis is an important area of statistical research. The three-arm trial consists of a placebo, a reference and an experimental treatment, and simultaneously tests the superiority of the reference over the placebo along with comparing this reference to an experimental treatment. In this paper, we consider the analysis of non-inferiority trials using Bayesian methods which incorporate both parametric as well as semi-parametric models. The resulting testing approach is both flexible and robust. The benefit of the proposed Bayesian methods is assessed via simulation, based on a study examining home-based blood pressure interventions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends and associated uncertainty in the global mean temperature record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppick, A. N.; Moyer, E. J.; Stein, M.

2016-12-01

Physical models suggest that the Earth's mean temperature warms in response to changing CO2 concentrations (and hence increased radiative forcing); given physical uncertainties in this relationship, the historical temperature record is a source of empirical information about global warming. A persistent thread in many analyses of the historical temperature record, however, is the reliance on methods that appear to deemphasize both physical and statistical assumptions. Examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for natural variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. We show here that methods that deemphasize assumptions can limit the scope of analysis and can lead to misleading inferences, particularly in the setting considered where the data record is relatively short and the scale of temporal correlation is relatively long. A proposed model that is simple but physically informed provides a more reliable estimate of trends and allows a broader array of questions to be addressed. In accounting for uncertainty, we also illustrate how parametric statistical models that are attuned to the important characteristics of natural variability can be more reliable than ostensibly more flexible approaches.

Patient-specific Distraction Regimen to Avoid Growth-rod Failure.

PubMed

Agarwal, Aakash; Jayaswal, Arvind; Goel, Vijay K; Agarwal, Anand K

2018-02-15

A finite element study to establish the relationship between patient's curve flexibility (determined using curve correction under gravity) in juvenile idiopathic scoliosis and the required distraction frequency to avoid growth rod fracture, as a function of time. To perform a parametric analysis using a juvenile scoliotic spine model (single mid-thoracic curve with the apex at the eighth thoracic vertebra) and establish the relationship between curve flexibility (determined using curve correction under gravity) and the distraction interval that allows a higher factor of safety for the growth rods. Previous studies have shown that frequent distraction with smaller magnitude of distractions are less likely to result in rod failure. However there has not been any methodology or a chart provided to apply this knowledge on to the individual patients that undergo the treatment. This study aims to fill in that gap. The parametric study was performed by varying the material properties of the disc, hence altering the axial stiffness of the scoliotic spine model. The stresses on the rod were found to increase with increased axial stiffness of the spine, and this resulted in the increase of required optimal frequency to achieve a factor of safety of two for growth rods. A relationship between the percentage correction in Cobb's angle due to gravity alone, and the required distraction interval for limiting the maximum von Mises stress to 255 MPa on the growth rods was established. The distraction interval required to limit the stresses to the selected nominal value reduces with increase in stiffness of the spine. Furthermore, the appropriate distraction interval reduces for each model as the spine becomes stiffer with time (autofusion). This points to the fact the optimal distraction frequency is a time-dependent variable that must be achieved to keep the maximum von Mises stress under the specified factor of safety. The current study demonstrates the possibility of translating fundamental information from finite element modeling to the clinical arena, for mitigating the occurrence of growth rod fracture, that is, establishing a relationship between optimal distraction interval and curve flexibility (determined using curve correction under gravity). N/A.

Effects of model error on control of large flexible space antenna with comparisons of decoupled and linear quadratic regulator control procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamer, H. A.; Johnson, K. G.

1986-01-01

An analysis was performed to determine the effects of model error on the control of a large flexible space antenna. Control was achieved by employing two three-axis control-moment gyros (CMG's) located on the antenna column. State variables were estimated by including an observer in the control loop that used attitude and attitude-rate sensors on the column. Errors were assumed to exist in the individual model parameters: modal frequency, modal damping, mode slope (control-influence coefficients), and moment of inertia. Their effects on control-system performance were analyzed either for (1) nulling initial disturbances in the rigid-body modes, or (2) nulling initial disturbances in the first three flexible modes. The study includes the effects on stability, time to null, and control requirements (defined as maximum torque and total momentum), as well as on the accuracy of obtaining initial estimates of the disturbances. The effects on the transients of the undisturbed modes are also included. The results, which are compared for decoupled and linear quadratic regulator (LQR) control procedures, are shown in tabular form, parametric plots, and as sample time histories of modal-amplitude and control responses. Results of the analysis showed that the effects of model errors on the control-system performance were generally comparable for both control procedures. The effect of mode-slope error was the most serious of all model errors.

Stable integrated hyper-parametric oscillator based on coupled optical microcavities.

PubMed

Armaroli, Andrea; Feron, Patrice; Dumeige, Yannick

2015-12-01

We propose a flexible scheme based on three coupled optical microcavities that permits us to achieve stable oscillations in the microwave range, the frequency of which depends only on the cavity coupling rates. We find that the different dynamical regimes (soft and hard excitation) affect the oscillation intensity, but not their periods. This configuration may permit us to implement compact hyper-parametric sources on an integrated optical circuit with interesting applications in communications, sensing, and metrology.

IMAGINE: Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steininger, Theo

2018-03-01

IMAGINE (Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine) performs inference on generic parametric models of the Galaxy. The modular open source framework uses highly optimized tools and technology such as the MultiNest sampler (ascl:1109.006) and the information field theory framework NIFTy (ascl:1302.013) to create an instance of the Milky Way based on a set of parameters for physical observables, using Bayesian statistics to judge the mismatch between measured data and model prediction. The flexibility of the IMAGINE framework allows for simple refitting for newly available data sets and makes state-of-the-art Bayesian methods easily accessible particularly for random components of the Galactic magnetic field.

Pulse combustion engineering research laboratory for indirect heating applications (PERL-IH). Final report, October 1, 1989-June 30, 1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belles, F.E.

1993-01-01

Uncontrolled NOx emissions from a variety of pulse combustors were measured. The implementation of flue-gas recirculation to reduce NOx was studied. A flexible workstation for parametric testing was built and used to study the phasing between pressure and heat release, and effects of fuel/air mixing on performance. Exhaust-pipe heat transfer was analyzed. An acoustic model of pulse combustion was developed. Technical support was provided to manufacturers on noise, ignition and condensation. A computerized bibliographic database on pulse combustion was created.

Mid-infrared wavelength- and frequency-modulation spectroscopy with a pump-modulated singly-resonant optical parametric oscillator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, I. D.; Groß, P.; Lee, C. J.; Adhimoolam, B.; Boller, K.-J.

2006-12-01

We describe the implementation of the wavelength- and frequency-modulation spectroscopy techniques using a singly-resonant optical parametric oscillator (OPO) pumped by a fiber-amplified diode laser. Frequency modulation of the diode laser was transferred to the OPO’s mid-infrared idler output, avoiding the need for external modulation devices. This approach thus provides a means of implementing these important techniques with powerful, widely tunable, mid-infrared sources while retaining the simple, flexible modulation properties of diode lasers.

Spatially distributed modal signals of free shallow membrane shell structronic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, H. H.; Deng, Z. Q.; Tzou, H. S.

2008-11-01

Based on the smart material and structronics technology, distributed sensor and control of shell structures have been rapidly developed for the last 20 years. This emerging technology has been utilized in aerospace, telecommunication, micro-electromechanical systems and other engineering applications. However, distributed monitoring technique and its resulting global spatially distributed sensing signals of shallow paraboloidal membrane shells are not clearly understood. In this paper, modeling of free flexible paraboloidal shell with spatially distributed sensor, micro-sensing signal characteristics, and location of distributed piezoelectric sensor patches are investigated based on a new set of assumed mode shape functions. Parametric analysis indicates that the signal generation depends on modal membrane strains in the meridional and circumferential directions in which the latter is more significant than the former, when all bending strains vanish in membrane shells. This study provides a modeling and analysis technique for distributed sensors laminated on lightweight paraboloidal flexible structures and identifies critical components and regions that generate significant signals.

Spatial Signal Characteristics of Shallow Paraboloidal Shell Structronic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, H. H.; Deng, Z. Q.; Tzou, H. S.

Based on the smart material and structronics technology, distributed sensor and control of shell structures have been rapidly developed for the last twenty years. This emerging technology has been utilized in aerospace, telecommunication, micro-electromechanical systems and other engineering applications. However, distributed monitoring technique and its resulting global spatially distributed sensing signals of thin flexible membrane shells are not clearly understood. In this paper, modeling of free thin paraboloidal shell with spatially distributed sensor, micro-sensing signal characteristics, and location of distributed piezoelectric sensor patches are investigated based on a new set of assumed mode shape functions. Parametric analysis indicates that the signal generation depends on modal membrane strains in the meridional and circumferential directions in which the latter is more significant than the former, when all bending strains vanish in membrane shells. This study provides a modeling and analysis technique for distributed sensors laminated on lightweight paraboloidal flexible structures and identifies critical components and regions that generate significant signals.

Bifurcation and response analysis of a nonlinear flexible rotating disc immersed in bounded compressible fluid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remigius, W. Dheelibun; Sarkar, Sunetra; Gupta, Sayan

2017-03-01

Use of heavy gases in centrifugal compressors for enhanced oil extraction have made the impellers susceptible to failures through acousto-elastic instabilities. This study focusses on understanding the dynamical behavior of such systems by considering the effects of the bounded fluid housed in a casing on a rotating disc. First, a mathematical model is developed that incorporates the interaction between the rotating impeller - modelled as a flexible disc - and the bounded compressible fluid medium in which it is immersed. The nonlinear effects arising due to large deformations of the disc have been included in the formulation so as to capture the post flutter behavior. A bifurcation analysis is carried out with the disc rotational speed as the bifurcation parameter to investigate the dynamical behavior of the coupled system and estimate the stability boundaries. Parametric studies reveal that the relative strengths of the various dissipation mechanisms in the coupled system play a significant role that affect the bifurcation route and the post flutter behavior in the acousto-elastic system.

Mixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed.

PubMed

Baran, S; Lerch, S

2016-03-01

Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models in order to produce calibrated predictive probability density functions. The EMOS predictive probability density function is given by a parametric distribution with parameters depending on the ensemble forecasts. We propose an EMOS model for calibrating wind speed forecasts based on weighted mixtures of truncated normal (TN) and log-normal (LN) distributions where model parameters and component weights are estimated by optimizing the values of proper scoring rules over a rolling training period. The new model is tested on wind speed forecasts of the 50 member European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ensemble, the 11 member Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement International-Hungary Ensemble Prediction System ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, and the eight-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, and its predictive performance is compared with that of various benchmark EMOS models based on single parametric families and combinations thereof. The results indicate improved calibration of probabilistic and accuracy of point forecasts in comparison with the raw ensemble and climatological forecasts. The mixture EMOS model significantly outperforms the TN and LN EMOS methods; moreover, it provides better calibrated forecasts than the TN-LN combination model and offers an increased flexibility while avoiding covariate selection problems. © 2016 The Authors Environmetrics Published by JohnWiley & Sons Ltd.

Hi-alpha forebody design. Part 1: Methodology base and initial parametrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, William H.; Ravi, R.

1992-01-01

The use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been investigated for the analysis and design of aircraft forebodies at high angle of attack combined with sideslip. The results of the investigation show that CFD has reached a level of development where computational methods can be used for high angle of attack aerodynamic design. The classic wind tunnel experiment for the F-5A forebody directional stability has been reproduced computationally over an angle of attack range from 10 degrees to 45 degrees, and good agreement with experimental data was obtained. Computations have also been made at combined angle of attack and sideslip over a chine forebody, demonstrating the qualitative features of the flow, although not producing good agreement with measured experimental pressure distributions. The computations were performed using the code known as cfl3D for both the Euler equations and the Reynolds equations using a form of the Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model. To study the relation between forebody shape and directional stability characteristics, a generic parametric forebody model has been defined which provides a simple analytic math model with flexibility to capture the key shape characteristics of the entire range of forebodies of interest, including chines.

Control structural interaction testbed: A model for multiple flexible body verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chory, M. A.; Cohen, A. L.; Manning, R. A.; Narigon, M. L.; Spector, V. A.

1993-01-01

Conventional end-to-end ground tests for verification of control system performance become increasingly complicated with the development of large, multiple flexible body spacecraft structures. The expense of accurately reproducing the on-orbit dynamic environment and the attendant difficulties in reducing and accounting for ground test effects limits the value of these tests. TRW has developed a building block approach whereby a combination of analysis, simulation, and test has replaced end-to-end performance verification by ground test. Tests are performed at the component, subsystem, and system level on engineering testbeds. These tests are aimed at authenticating models to be used in end-to-end performance verification simulations: component and subassembly engineering tests and analyses establish models and critical parameters, unit level engineering and acceptance tests refine models, and subsystem level tests confirm the models' overall behavior. The Precision Control of Agile Spacecraft (PCAS) project has developed a control structural interaction testbed with a multibody flexible structure to investigate new methods of precision control. This testbed is a model for TRW's approach to verifying control system performance. This approach has several advantages: (1) no allocation for test measurement errors is required, increasing flight hardware design allocations; (2) the approach permits greater latitude in investigating off-nominal conditions and parametric sensitivities; and (3) the simulation approach is cost effective, because the investment is in understanding the root behavior of the flight hardware and not in the ground test equipment and environment.

Regionalizing nonparametric models of precipitation amounts on different temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosthaf, Tobias; Bárdossy, András

2017-05-01

Parametric distribution functions are commonly used to model precipitation amounts corresponding to different durations. The precipitation amounts themselves are crucial for stochastic rainfall generators and weather generators. Nonparametric kernel density estimates (KDEs) offer a more flexible way to model precipitation amounts. As already stated in their name, these models do not exhibit parameters that can be easily regionalized to run rainfall generators at ungauged locations as well as at gauged locations. To overcome this deficiency, we present a new interpolation scheme for nonparametric models and evaluate it for different temporal resolutions ranging from hourly to monthly. During the evaluation, the nonparametric methods are compared to commonly used parametric models like the two-parameter gamma and the mixed-exponential distribution. As water volume is considered to be an essential parameter for applications like flood modeling, a Lorenz-curve-based criterion is also introduced. To add value to the estimation of data at sub-daily resolutions, we incorporated the plentiful daily measurements in the interpolation scheme, and this idea was evaluated. The study region is the federal state of Baden-Württemberg in the southwest of Germany with more than 500 rain gauges. The validation results show that the newly proposed nonparametric interpolation scheme provides reasonable results and that the incorporation of daily values in the regionalization of sub-daily models is very beneficial.

Made-to-measure modelling of observed galaxy dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bovy, Jo; Kawata, Daisuke; Hunt, Jason A. S.

2018-01-01

Amongst dynamical modelling techniques, the made-to-measure (M2M) method for modelling steady-state systems is amongst the most flexible, allowing non-parametric distribution functions in complex gravitational potentials to be modelled efficiently using N-body particles. Here, we propose and test various improvements to the standard M2M method for modelling observed data, illustrated using the simple set-up of a one-dimensional harmonic oscillator. We demonstrate that nuisance parameters describing the modelled system's orientation with respect to the observer - e.g. an external galaxy's inclination or the Sun's position in the Milky Way - as well as the parameters of an external gravitational field can be optimized simultaneously with the particle weights. We develop a method for sampling from the high-dimensional uncertainty distribution of the particle weights. We combine this in a Gibbs sampler with samplers for the nuisance and potential parameters to explore the uncertainty distribution of the full set of parameters. We illustrate our M2M improvements by modelling the vertical density and kinematics of F-type stars in Gaia DR1. The novel M2M method proposed here allows full probabilistic modelling of steady-state dynamical systems, allowing uncertainties on the non-parametric distribution function and on nuisance parameters to be taken into account when constraining the dark and baryonic masses of stellar systems.

Parametrization of Backbone Flexibility in a Coarse-Grained Force Field for Proteins (COFFDROP) Derived from All-Atom Explicit-Solvent Molecular Dynamics Simulations of All Possible Two-Residue Peptides.

PubMed

Frembgen-Kesner, Tamara; Andrews, Casey T; Li, Shuxiang; Ngo, Nguyet Anh; Shubert, Scott A; Jain, Aakash; Olayiwola, Oluwatoni J; Weishaar, Mitch R; Elcock, Adrian H

2015-05-12

Recently, we reported the parametrization of a set of coarse-grained (CG) nonbonded potential functions, derived from all-atom explicit-solvent molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of amino acid pairs and designed for use in (implicit-solvent) Brownian dynamics (BD) simulations of proteins; this force field was named COFFDROP (COarse-grained Force Field for Dynamic Representations Of Proteins). Here, we describe the extension of COFFDROP to include bonded backbone terms derived from fitting to results of explicit-solvent MD simulations of all possible two-residue peptides containing the 20 standard amino acids, with histidine modeled in both its protonated and neutral forms. The iterative Boltzmann inversion (IBI) method was used to optimize new CG potential functions for backbone-related terms by attempting to reproduce angle, dihedral, and distance probability distributions generated by the MD simulations. In a simple test of the transferability of the extended force field, the angle, dihedral, and distance probability distributions obtained from BD simulations of 56 three-residue peptides were compared to results from corresponding explicit-solvent MD simulations. In a more challenging test of the COFFDROP force field, it was used to simulate eight intrinsically disordered proteins and was shown to quite accurately reproduce the experimental hydrodynamic radii (Rhydro), provided that the favorable nonbonded interactions of the force field were uniformly scaled downward in magnitude. Overall, the results indicate that the COFFDROP force field is likely to find use in modeling the conformational behavior of intrinsically disordered proteins and multidomain proteins connected by flexible linkers.

A Bayesian joint probability modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Chiew, F. H. S.

2009-05-01

Seasonal forecasting of streamflows can be highly valuable for water resources management. In this paper, a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites is presented. A Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution is proposed to model the joint distribution of future streamflows and their predictors such as antecedent streamflows and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices and other climate indicators. Bayesian inference of model parameters and uncertainties is implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, leading to joint probabilistic forecasts of streamflows at multiple sites. The model provides a parametric structure for quantifying relationships between variables, including intersite correlations. The Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution has considerable flexibility for modeling a wide range of predictors and predictands. The Bayesian inference formulated allows the use of data that contain nonconcurrent and missing records. The model flexibility and data-handling ability means that the BJP modeling approach is potentially of wide practical application. The paper also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables. Results for streamflows at three river gauges in the Murrumbidgee River catchment in southeast Australia show that the BJP modeling approach has good forecast quality and that the fitted model is consistent with observed data.

Parametric and non-parametric modeling of short-term synaptic plasticity. Part I: computational study

PubMed Central

Marmarelis, Vasilis Z.; Berger, Theodore W.

2009-01-01

Parametric and non-parametric modeling methods are combined to study the short-term plasticity (STP) of synapses in the central nervous system (CNS). The nonlinear dynamics of STP are modeled by means: (1) previously proposed parametric models based on mechanistic hypotheses and/or specific dynamical processes, and (2) non-parametric models (in the form of Volterra kernels) that transforms the presynaptic signals into postsynaptic signals. In order to synergistically use the two approaches, we estimate the Volterra kernels of the parametric models of STP for four types of synapses using synthetic broadband input–output data. Results show that the non-parametric models accurately and efficiently replicate the input–output transformations of the parametric models. Volterra kernels provide a general and quantitative representation of the STP. PMID:18506609

Modeling Temporal Behavior in Large Networks: A Dynamic Mixed-Membership Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rossi, R; Gallagher, B; Neville, J

Given a large time-evolving network, how can we model and characterize the temporal behaviors of individual nodes (and network states)? How can we model the behavioral transition patterns of nodes? We propose a temporal behavior model that captures the 'roles' of nodes in the graph and how they evolve over time. The proposed dynamic behavioral mixed-membership model (DBMM) is scalable, fully automatic (no user-defined parameters), non-parametric/data-driven (no specific functional form or parameterization), interpretable (identifies explainable patterns), and flexible (applicable to dynamic and streaming networks). Moreover, the interpretable behavioral roles are generalizable, computationally efficient, and natively supports attributes. We applied ourmore » model for (a) identifying patterns and trends of nodes and network states based on the temporal behavior, (b) predicting future structural changes, and (c) detecting unusual temporal behavior transitions. We use eight large real-world datasets from different time-evolving settings (dynamic and streaming). In particular, we model the evolving mixed-memberships and the corresponding behavioral transitions of Twitter, Facebook, IP-Traces, Email (University), Internet AS, Enron, Reality, and IMDB. The experiments demonstrate the scalability, flexibility, and effectiveness of our model for identifying interesting patterns, detecting unusual structural transitions, and predicting the future structural changes of the network and individual nodes.« less

A comparison of methods for estimating the random effects distribution of a linear mixed model.

PubMed

Ghidey, Wendimagegn; Lesaffre, Emmanuel; Verbeke, Geert

2010-12-01

This article reviews various recently suggested approaches to estimate the random effects distribution in a linear mixed model, i.e. (1) the smoothing by roughening approach of Shen and Louis,(1) (2) the semi-non-parametric approach of Zhang and Davidian,(2) (3) the heterogeneity model of Verbeke and Lesaffre( 3) and (4) a flexible approach of Ghidey et al. (4) These four approaches are compared via an extensive simulation study. We conclude that for the considered cases, the approach of Ghidey et al. (4) often shows to have the smallest integrated mean squared error for estimating the random effects distribution. An analysis of a longitudinal dental data set illustrates the performance of the methods in a practical example.

Parametric Study of the Effect of Membrane Tension on Sunshield Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Brian; Johnston, John D.; Smith, James

2002-01-01

The NGST sunshield is a lightweight, flexible structure consisting of pretensioned membranes supported by deployable booms. The structural dynamic behavior of the sunshield must be well understood in order to predict its influence on observatory performance. A 1/10th scale model of the sunshield has been developed for ground testing to provide data to validate modeling techniques for thin film membrane structures. The validated models can then be used to predict the behaviour of the full scale sunshield. This paper summarizes the most recent tests performed on the 1/10th scale sunshield to study the effect of membrane preload on sunshield dynamics. Topics to be covered include the test setup, procedures, and a summary of results.

Wide range operation of regenerative optical parametric wavelength converter using ASE-degraded 43-Gb/s RZ-DPSK signals.

PubMed

Gao, Mingyi; Kurumida, Junya; Namiki, Shu

2011-11-07

For sustainable growth of the Internet, wavelength-tunable optical regeneration is the key to scaling up high energy-efficiency dynamic optical path networks while keeping the flexibility of the network. Wavelength-tunable optical parametric regenerator (T-OPR) based on the gain saturation effect of parametric amplification in a highly nonlinear fiber is promising for noise reduction in phase-shift keying signals. In this paper, we experimentally evaluated the T-OPR performance for ASE-degraded 43-Gb/s RZ-DPSK signals over a 20-nm input wavelength range between 1527 nm and 1547 nm. As a result, we achieved improved power penalty performance for the regenerated idler with a proper pump power range.

An analytic modeling and system identification study of rotor/fuselage dynamics at hover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Steven W.; Curtiss, H. C., Jr.

1993-01-01

A combination of analytic modeling and system identification methods have been used to develop an improved dynamic model describing the response of articulated rotor helicopters to control inputs. A high-order linearized model of coupled rotor/body dynamics including flap and lag degrees of freedom and inflow dynamics with literal coefficients is compared to flight test data from single rotor helicopters in the near hover trim condition. The identification problem was formulated using the maximum likelihood function in the time domain. The dynamic model with literal coefficients was used to generate the model states, and the model was parametrized in terms of physical constants of the aircraft rather than the stability derivatives resulting in a significant reduction in the number of quantities to be identified. The likelihood function was optimized using the genetic algorithm approach. This method proved highly effective in producing an estimated model from flight test data which included coupled fuselage/rotor dynamics. Using this approach it has been shown that blade flexibility is a significant contributing factor to the discrepancies between theory and experiment shown in previous studies. Addition of flexible modes, properly incorporating the constraint due to the lag dampers, results in excellent agreement between flight test and theory, especially in the high frequency range.

An improved approximate-Bayesian model-choice method for estimating shared evolutionary history

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences times, a pattern that can be estimated using genetic data from co-distributed species. I introduce a new approximate-Bayesian method for comparative phylogeographical model-choice that estimates the temporal distribution of divergences across taxa from multi-locus DNA sequence data. The model is an extension of that implemented in msBayes. Results By reparameterizing the model, introducing more flexible priors on demographic and divergence-time parameters, and implementing a non-parametric Dirichlet-process prior over divergence models, I improved the robustness, accuracy, and power of the method for estimating shared evolutionary history across taxa. Conclusions The results demonstrate the improved performance of the new method is due to (1) more appropriate priors on divergence-time and demographic parameters that avoid prohibitively small marginal likelihoods for models with more divergence events, and (2) the Dirichlet-process providing a flexible prior on divergence histories that does not strongly disfavor models with intermediate numbers of divergence events. The new method yields more robust estimates of posterior uncertainty, and thus greatly reduces the tendency to incorrectly estimate models of shared evolutionary history with strong support. PMID:24992937

An analytic modeling and system identification study of rotor/fuselage dynamics at hover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Steven W.; Curtiss, H. C., Jr.

1993-01-01

A combination of analytic modeling and system identification methods have been used to develop an improved dynamic model describing the response of articulated rotor helicopters to control inputs. A high-order linearized model of coupled rotor/body dynamics including flap and lag degrees of freedom and inflow dynamics with literal coefficients is compared to flight test data from single rotor helicopters in the near hover trim condition. The identification problem was formulated using the maximum likelihood function in the time domain. The dynamic model with literal coefficients was used to generate the model states, and the model was parametrized in terms of physical constants of the aircraft rather than the stability derivatives, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of quantities to be identified. The likelihood function was optimized using the genetic algorithm approach. This method proved highly effective in producing an estimated model from flight test data which included coupled fuselage/rotor dynamics. Using this approach it has been shown that blade flexibility is a significant contributing factor to the discrepancies between theory and experiment shown in previous studies. Addition of flexible modes, properly incorporating the constraint due to the lag dampers, results in excellent agreement between flight test and theory, especially in the high frequency range.

Empirical validation of statistical parametric mapping for group imaging of fast neural activity using electrical impedance tomography.

PubMed

Packham, B; Barnes, G; Dos Santos, G Sato; Aristovich, K; Gilad, O; Ghosh, A; Oh, T; Holder, D

2016-06-01

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) allows for the reconstruction of internal conductivity from surface measurements. A change in conductivity occurs as ion channels open during neural activity, making EIT a potential tool for functional brain imaging. EIT images can have  >10 000 voxels, which means statistical analysis of such images presents a substantial multiple testing problem. One way to optimally correct for these issues and still maintain the flexibility of complicated experimental designs is to use random field theory. This parametric method estimates the distribution of peaks one would expect by chance in a smooth random field of a given size. Random field theory has been used in several other neuroimaging techniques but never validated for EIT images of fast neural activity, such validation can be achieved using non-parametric techniques. Both parametric and non-parametric techniques were used to analyze a set of 22 images collected from 8 rats. Significant group activations were detected using both techniques (corrected p  <  0.05). Both parametric and non-parametric analyses yielded similar results, although the latter was less conservative. These results demonstrate the first statistical analysis of such an image set and indicate that such an analysis is an approach for EIT images of neural activity.

Empirical validation of statistical parametric mapping for group imaging of fast neural activity using electrical impedance tomography

PubMed Central

Packham, B; Barnes, G; dos Santos, G Sato; Aristovich, K; Gilad, O; Ghosh, A; Oh, T; Holder, D

2016-01-01

Abstract Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) allows for the reconstruction of internal conductivity from surface measurements. A change in conductivity occurs as ion channels open during neural activity, making EIT a potential tool for functional brain imaging. EIT images can have  >10 000 voxels, which means statistical analysis of such images presents a substantial multiple testing problem. One way to optimally correct for these issues and still maintain the flexibility of complicated experimental designs is to use random field theory. This parametric method estimates the distribution of peaks one would expect by chance in a smooth random field of a given size. Random field theory has been used in several other neuroimaging techniques but never validated for EIT images of fast neural activity, such validation can be achieved using non-parametric techniques. Both parametric and non-parametric techniques were used to analyze a set of 22 images collected from 8 rats. Significant group activations were detected using both techniques (corrected p  <  0.05). Both parametric and non-parametric analyses yielded similar results, although the latter was less conservative. These results demonstrate the first statistical analysis of such an image set and indicate that such an analysis is an approach for EIT images of neural activity. PMID:27203477

Simulations of dolphin kick swimming using smoothed particle hydrodynamics.

PubMed

Cohen, Raymond C Z; Cleary, Paul W; Mason, Bruce R

2012-06-01

In competitive human swimming the submerged dolphin kick stroke (underwater undulatory swimming) is utilized after dives and turns. The optimal dolphin kick has a balance between minimizing drag and maximizing thrust while also minimizing the physical exertion required of the swimmer. In this study laser scans of athletes are used to provide realistic swimmer geometries in a single anatomical pose. These are rigged and animated to closely match side-on video footage. Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) fluid simulations are performed to evaluate variants of this swimming stroke technique. This computational approach provides full temporal and spatial information about the flow moving around the deforming swimmer model. The effects of changes in ankle flexibility and stroke frequency are investigated through a parametric study. The results suggest that the net streamwise force on the swimmer is relatively insensitive to ankle flexibility but is strongly dependent on kick frequency. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty Quantification of the FUN3D-Predicted NASA CRM Flutter Boundary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanford, Bret K.; Massey, Steven J.

2017-01-01

A nonintrusive point collocation method is used to propagate parametric uncertainties of the flexible Common Research Model, a generic transport configuration, through the unsteady aeroelastic CFD solver FUN3D. A range of random input variables are considered, including atmospheric flow variables, structural variables, and inertial (lumped mass) variables. UQ results are explored for a range of output metrics (with a focus on dynamic flutter stability), for both subsonic and transonic Mach numbers, for two different CFD mesh refinements. A particular focus is placed on computing failure probabilities: the probability that the wing will flutter within the flight envelope.

A Smart Eddy Current Sensor Dedicated to the Nondestructive Evaluation of Carbon Fibers Reinforced Polymers.

PubMed

Naidjate, Mohammed; Helifa, Bachir; Feliachi, Mouloud; Lefkaier, Iben-Khaldoun; Heuer, Henning; Schulze, Martin

2017-08-31

This paper propose a new concept of an eddy current (EC) multi-element sensor for the characterization of carbon fiber-reinforced polymers (CFRP) to evaluate the orientations of plies in CFRP and the order of their stacking. The main advantage of the new sensors is the flexible parametrization by electronical switching that reduces the effort for mechanical manipulation. The sensor response was calculated and proved by 3D finite element (FE) modeling. This sensor is dedicated to nondestructive testing (NDT) and can be an alternative for conventional mechanical rotating and rectangular sensors.

Computational Analysis of a Wells Turbine with Flexible Trailing Edges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kincaid, Kellis; Macphee, David

2017-11-01

The Wells turbine is often used to produce a net positive power from an oscillating air column excited by ocean waves. It has been parametrically studied quite thoroughly in the past, both experimentally and numerically. The effects of various characteristics such as blade count and profile, solidity, and tip gap are well known. Several three-dimensional computational studies have been carried out using commercial code to investigate many phenomena detected in experiments: hysteresis, tip-gap drag, and post-stall behavior for example. In this work, the open-source code Foam-Extend is used to examine the effect of flexible blades on the performance of the Wells turbine. A new solver is created to integrate fluid-structure interaction into the code, allowing an accurate solution for both the solid and fluid domains. Reynolds-averaged governing equations are employed in a fully transient solution model. The elastic modulus of the flexible portion of the blade and the tip-gap width are varied, and the resulting flow fields are investigated to determine the cause of any performance differences. NSF Grant EEC 1659710.

Divergences and estimating tight bounds on Bayes error with applications to multivariate Gaussian copula and latent Gaussian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thelen, Brian J.; Xique, Ismael J.; Burns, Joseph W.; Goley, G. Steven; Nolan, Adam R.; Benson, Jonathan W.

2017-04-01

In Bayesian decision theory, there has been a great amount of research into theoretical frameworks and information- theoretic quantities that can be used to provide lower and upper bounds for the Bayes error. These include well-known bounds such as Chernoff, Battacharrya, and J-divergence. Part of the challenge of utilizing these various metrics in practice is (i) whether they are "loose" or "tight" bounds, (ii) how they might be estimated via either parametric or non-parametric methods, and (iii) how accurate the estimates are for limited amounts of data. In general what is desired is a methodology for generating relatively tight lower and upper bounds, and then an approach to estimate these bounds efficiently from data. In this paper, we explore the so-called triangle divergence which has been around for a while, but was recently made more prominent in some recent research on non-parametric estimation of information metrics. Part of this work is motivated by applications for quantifying fundamental information content in SAR/LIDAR data, and to help in this, we have developed a flexible multivariate modeling framework based on multivariate Gaussian copula models which can be combined with the triangle divergence framework to quantify this information, and provide approximate bounds on Bayes error. In this paper we present an overview of the bounds, including those based on triangle divergence and verify that under a number of multivariate models, the upper and lower bounds derived from triangle divergence are significantly tighter than the other common bounds, and often times, dramatically so. We also propose some simple but effective means for computing the triangle divergence using Monte Carlo methods, and then discuss estimation of the triangle divergence from empirical data based on Gaussian Copula models.

Modeling SF-6D Hong Kong standard gamble health state preference data using a nonparametric Bayesian method.

PubMed

Kharroubi, Samer A; Brazier, John E; McGhee, Sarah

2013-01-01

This article reports on the findings from applying a recently described approach to modeling health state valuation data and the impact of the respondent characteristics on health state valuations. The approach applies a nonparametric model to estimate a Bayesian six-dimensional health state short form (derived from short-form 36 health survey) health state valuation algorithm. A sample of 197 states defined by the six-dimensional health state short form (derived from short-form 36 health survey)has been valued by a representative sample of the Hong Kong general population by using standard gamble. The article reports the application of the nonparametric model and compares it to the original model estimated by using a conventional parametric random effects model. The two models are compared theoretically and in terms of empirical performance. Advantages of the nonparametric model are that it can be used to predict scores in populations with different distributions of characteristics than observed in the survey sample and that it allows for the impact of respondent characteristics to vary by health state (while ensuring that full health passes through unity). The results suggest an important age effect with sex, having some effect, but the remaining covariates having no discernible effect. The nonparametric Bayesian model is argued to be more theoretically appropriate than previously used parametric models. Furthermore, it is more flexible to take into account the impact of covariates. Copyright © 2013, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc.

Women's Health Initiative estrogen plus progestin clinical trial: a study that does not allow establishing relevant clinical risks.

PubMed

Aedo, Sócrates; Cavada, Gabriel; Blümel, Juan E; Chedraui, Peter; Fica, Juan; Barriga, Patricio; Brantes, Sergio; Irribarra, Cristina; Vallejo, María; Campodónico, Ítalo

2015-12-01

This study aims to determine time differences (differences in restricted mean survival times [RMSTs]) in the onset of invasive breast cancer, coronary heart disease, stroke, pulmonary embolism, colorectal cancer, and hip fracture between the placebo group and the conjugated equine estrogens 0.625 mg plus medroxyprogesterone acetate 2.5 mg group of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) trial based on survival curves of the original report and to provide adequate interpretation of the clinical effects of a given intervention. Distribution of survival function was obtained from cumulative hazard plots of the WHI report; Monte Carlo simulation was performed to obtain censored observations for each outcome, in which assumptions of the Cox model were evaluated once corresponding hazard ratios had been estimated. Using estimation methods such as numerical integration, pseudovalues, and flexible parametric modeling, we determined differences in RMSTs for each outcome. Obtained cumulative hazard plots, hazard ratios, and outcome rates from the simulated model did not show differences in relation to the original WHI report. The differences in RMST between placebo and conjugated equine estrogens 0.625 mg plus medroxyprogesterone acetate 2.5 mg (in flexible parametric modeling) were 1.17 days (95% CI, -2.25 to 4.59) for invasive breast cancer, 7.50 days (95% CI, 2.90 to 12.11) for coronary heart disease, 2.75 days (95% CI, -0.84 to 6.34) for stroke, 4.23 days (95% CI, 1.82 to 6.64) for pulmonary embolism, -2.73 days (95% CI, -5.32 to -0.13) for colorectal cancer, and -2.77 days (95% CI, -5.44 to -0.1) for hip fracture. The differences in RMST for the outcomes of the WHI study are too small to establish clinical risks related to hormone therapy use.

Parametric study of the swimming performance of a fish robot propelled by a flexible caudal fin.

PubMed

Low, K H; Chong, C W

2010-12-01

In this paper, we aim to study the swimming performance of fish robots by using a statistical approach. A fish robot employing a carangiform swimming mode had been used as an experimental platform for the performance study. The experiments conducted aim to investigate the effect of various design parameters on the thrust capability of the fish robot with a flexible caudal fin. The controllable parameters associated with the fin include frequency, amplitude of oscillation, aspect ratio and the rigidity of the caudal fin. The significance of these parameters was determined in the first set of experiments by using a statistical approach. A more detailed parametric experimental study was then conducted with only those significant parameters. As a result, the parametric study could be completed with a reduced number of experiments and time spent. With the obtained experimental result, we were able to understand the relationship between various parameters and a possible adjustment of parameters to obtain a higher thrust. The proposed statistical method for experimentation provides an objective and thorough analysis of the effects of individual or combinations of parameters on the swimming performance. Such an efficient experimental design helps to optimize the process and determine factors that influence variability.

Numerical model of solar dynamic radiator for parametric analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.

1989-01-01

Growth power requirements for Space Station Freedom will be met through addition of 25 kW solar dynamic (SD) power modules. The SD module rejects waste heat from the power conversion cycle to space through a pumped-loop, multi-panel, deployable radiator. The baseline radiator configuration was defined during the Space Station conceptual design phase and is a function of the state point and heat rejection requirements of the power conversion unit. Requirements determined by the overall station design such as mass, system redundancy, micrometeoroid and space debris impact survivability, launch packaging, costs, and thermal and structural interaction with other station components have also been design drivers for the radiator configuration. Extensive thermal and power cycle modeling capabilities have been developed which are powerful tools in Station design and analysis, but which prove cumbersome and costly for simple component preliminary design studies. In order to aid in refining the SD radiator to the mature design stage, a simple and flexible numerical model was developed. The model simulates heat transfer and fluid flow performance of the radiator and calculates area mass and impact survivability for many combinations of flow tube and panel configurations, fluid and material properties, and environmental and cycle variations. A brief description and discussion of the numerical model, it's capabilities and limitations, and results of the parametric studies performed is presented.

Estimation of rates-across-sites distributions in phylogenetic substitution models.

PubMed

Susko, Edward; Field, Chris; Blouin, Christian; Roger, Andrew J

2003-10-01

Previous work has shown that it is often essential to account for the variation in rates at different sites in phylogenetic models in order to avoid phylogenetic artifacts such as long branch attraction. In most current models, the gamma distribution is used for the rates-across-sites distributions and is implemented as an equal-probability discrete gamma. In this article, we introduce discrete distribution estimates with large numbers of equally spaced rate categories allowing us to investigate the appropriateness of the gamma model. With large numbers of rate categories, these discrete estimates are flexible enough to approximate the shape of almost any distribution. Likelihood ratio statistical tests and a nonparametric bootstrap confidence-bound estimation procedure based on the discrete estimates are presented that can be used to test the fit of a parametric family. We applied the methodology to several different protein data sets, and found that although the gamma model often provides a good parametric model for this type of data, rate estimates from an equal-probability discrete gamma model with a small number of categories will tend to underestimate the largest rates. In cases when the gamma model assumption is in doubt, rate estimates coming from the discrete rate distribution estimate with a large number of rate categories provide a robust alternative to gamma estimates. An alternative implementation of the gamma distribution is proposed that, for equal numbers of rate categories, is computationally more efficient during optimization than the standard gamma implementation and can provide more accurate estimates of site rates.

Research study for effects of case flexibility on bearing loads and rotor stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fenwick, J. R.; Tarn, R. B.

1984-01-01

Methods to evaluate the effect of casing flexibility on rotor stability and component loads were developed. Recent Rocketdyne turbomachinery was surveyed to determine typical properties and frequencies versus running speed. A small generic rotor was run with a flexible case with parametric variations in casing properties for comparison with a rotor attached to rigid supports. A program for the IBM personal computer for interactive evaluation of rotors and casings is developed. The Root locus method is extended for use in rotor dynamics for symmetrical systems by transforming all motion and coupling into a single plane and using a 90 degree criterion when plotting loci.

Nonparametric Fine Tuning of Mixtures: Application to Non-Life Insurance Claims Distribution Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sardet, Laure; Patilea, Valentin

When pricing a specific insurance premium, actuary needs to evaluate the claims cost distribution for the warranty. Traditional actuarial methods use parametric specifications to model claims distribution, like lognormal, Weibull and Pareto laws. Mixtures of such distributions allow to improve the flexibility of the parametric approach and seem to be quite well-adapted to capture the skewness, the long tails as well as the unobserved heterogeneity among the claims. In this paper, instead of looking for a finely tuned mixture with many components, we choose a parsimonious mixture modeling, typically a two or three-component mixture. Next, we use the mixture cumulative distribution function (CDF) to transform data into the unit interval where we apply a beta-kernel smoothing procedure. A bandwidth rule adapted to our methodology is proposed. Finally, the beta-kernel density estimate is back-transformed to recover an estimate of the original claims density. The beta-kernel smoothing provides an automatic fine-tuning of the parsimonious mixture and thus avoids inference in more complex mixture models with many parameters. We investigate the empirical performance of the new method in the estimation of the quantiles with simulated nonnegative data and the quantiles of the individual claims distribution in a non-life insurance application.

Simple and flexible SAS and SPSS programs for analyzing lag-sequential categorical data.

PubMed

O'Connor, B P

1999-11-01

This paper describes simple and flexible programs for analyzing lag-sequential categorical data, using SAS and SPSS. The programs read a stream of codes and produce a variety of lag-sequential statistics, including transitional frequencies, expected transitional frequencies, transitional probabilities, adjusted residuals, z values, Yule's Q values, likelihood ratio tests of stationarity across time and homogeneity across groups or segments, transformed kappas for unidirectional dependence, bidirectional dependence, parallel and nonparallel dominance, and significance levels based on both parametric and randomization tests.

Fatigue modulates dopamine availability and promotes flexible choice reversals during decision making.

PubMed

Iodice, Pierpaolo; Ferrante, Claudio; Brunetti, Luigi; Cabib, Simona; Protasi, Feliciano; Walton, Mark E; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2017-04-03

During decisions, animals balance goal achievement and effort management. Despite physical exercise and fatigue significantly affecting the levels of effort that an animal exerts to obtain a reward, their role in effort-based choice and the underlying neurochemistry are incompletely known. In particular, it is unclear whether fatigue influences decision (cost-benefit) strategies flexibly or only post-decision action execution and learning. To answer this question, we trained mice on a T-maze task in which they chose between a high-cost, high-reward arm (HR), which included a barrier, and a low-cost, low-reward arm (LR), with no barrier. The animals were parametrically fatigued immediately before the behavioural tasks by running on a treadmill. We report a sharp choice reversal, from the HR to LR arm, at 80% of their peak workload (PW), which was temporary and specific, as the mice returned to choose the HC when the animals were successively tested at 60% PW or in a two-barrier task. These rapid reversals are signatures of flexible choice. We also observed increased subcortical dopamine levels in fatigued mice: a marker of individual bias to use model-based control in humans. Our results indicate that fatigue levels can be incorporated in flexible cost-benefits computations that improve foraging efficiency.

Stochastic generators of multi-site daily temperature: comparison of performances in various applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evin, Guillaume; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Hingray, Benoit

2018-02-01

We present a multi-site stochastic model for the generation of average daily temperature, which includes a flexible parametric distribution and a multivariate autoregressive process. Different versions of this model are applied to a set of 26 stations located in Switzerland. The importance of specific statistical characteristics of the model (seasonality, marginal distributions of standardized temperature, spatial and temporal dependence) is discussed. In particular, the proposed marginal distribution is shown to improve the reproduction of extreme temperatures (minima and maxima). We also demonstrate that the frequency and duration of cold spells and heat waves are dramatically underestimated when the autocorrelation of temperature is not taken into account in the model. An adequate representation of these characteristics can be crucial depending on the field of application, and we discuss potential implications in different contexts (agriculture, forestry, hydrology, human health).

Model-based Clustering of High-Dimensional Data in Astrophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouveyron, C.

2016-05-01

The nature of data in Astrophysics has changed, as in other scientific fields, in the past decades due to the increase of the measurement capabilities. As a consequence, data are nowadays frequently of high dimensionality and available in mass or stream. Model-based techniques for clustering are popular tools which are renowned for their probabilistic foundations and their flexibility. However, classical model-based techniques show a disappointing behavior in high-dimensional spaces which is mainly due to their dramatical over-parametrization. The recent developments in model-based classification overcome these drawbacks and allow to efficiently classify high-dimensional data, even in the "small n / large p" situation. This work presents a comprehensive review of these recent approaches, including regularization-based techniques, parsimonious modeling, subspace classification methods and classification methods based on variable selection. The use of these model-based methods is also illustrated on real-world classification problems in Astrophysics using R packages.

The ASAC Air Carrier Investment Model (Third Generation)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wingrove, Earl R., III; Gaier, Eric M.; Santmire, Tara E.

1998-01-01

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. To link the economics of flight with the technology of flight, ASAC requires a parametrically based model with extensions that link airline operations and investments in aircraft with aircraft characteristics. This model also must provide a mechanism for incorporating air travel demand and profitability factors into the airlines' investment decisions. Finally, the model must be flexible and capable of being incorporated into a wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models flat are envisioned for ASAC.

Analysis for Material Behavior of Sabot/Rods During Launch by Finite Element Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jin Bong; Kim, Man Geun

This study has been investigated to predict the deformation and states of stress and strain by axial and lateral acceleration during launch. Because a gun tube is not perfectly straight at its initial state while under gravity loading, the projectile deforms due to the change of contacts points with the flexible gun tube. Numerical simulations were used for gravity loading and the other type is initial shape and gravity loading. The ANSYS engineering analysis code was used to generate a parametric model of the projectile and conduct finite element analyses. Four types of nonlinear material and contact elements were incorporated into the model to account for the plastic deformation and contact between the penetrator, sabot, and tube.

Dynamics of a flexible helical filament rotating in a viscous fluid near a rigid boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jawed, M. K.; Reis, P. M.

2017-03-01

We study the effect of a no-slip rigid boundary on the dynamics of a flexible helical filament rotating in a viscous fluid, at low Reynolds number conditions (Stokes limit). This system is taken as a reduced model for the propulsion of uniflagellar bacteria, whose locomotion is known to be modified near solid boundaries. Specifically, we focus on how the propulsive force generated by the filament, as well as its buckling onset, are modified by the presence of a wall. We tackle this problem through numerical simulations that couple the elasticity of the filament, the hydrodynamic loading, and the wall effect. Each of these three ingredients is respectively modeled by the discrete elastic rods method (for a geometrically nonlinear description of the filament), Lighthill's slender body theory (for a nonlocal fluid force model), and the method of images (to emulate the boundary). The simulations are systematically validated by precision experiments on a rescaled macroscopic apparatus. We find that the propulsive force increases near the wall, while the critical rotation frequency for the onset of buckling usually decreases. A systematic parametric study is performed to quantify the dependence of the wall effects on the geometric parameters of the helical filament.

Kernel methods and flexible inference for complex stochastic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capobianco, Enrico

2008-07-01

Approximation theory suggests that series expansions and projections represent standard tools for random process applications from both numerical and statistical standpoints. Such instruments emphasize the role of both sparsity and smoothness for compression purposes, the decorrelation power achieved in the expansion coefficients space compared to the signal space, and the reproducing kernel property when some special conditions are met. We consider these three aspects central to the discussion in this paper, and attempt to analyze the characteristics of some known approximation instruments employed in a complex application domain such as financial market time series. Volatility models are often built ad hoc, parametrically and through very sophisticated methodologies. But they can hardly deal with stochastic processes with regard to non-Gaussianity, covariance non-stationarity or complex dependence without paying a big price in terms of either model mis-specification or computational efficiency. It is thus a good idea to look at other more flexible inference tools; hence the strategy of combining greedy approximation and space dimensionality reduction techniques, which are less dependent on distributional assumptions and more targeted to achieve computationally efficient performances. Advantages and limitations of their use will be evaluated by looking at algorithmic and model building strategies, and by reporting statistical diagnostics.

Water quality analysis in rivers with non-parametric probability distributions and fuzzy inference systems: application to the Cauca River, Colombia.

PubMed

Ocampo-Duque, William; Osorio, Carolina; Piamba, Christian; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2013-02-01

The integration of water quality monitoring variables is essential in environmental decision making. Nowadays, advanced techniques to manage subjectivity, imprecision, uncertainty, vagueness, and variability are required in such complex evaluation process. We here propose a probabilistic fuzzy hybrid model to assess river water quality. Fuzzy logic reasoning has been used to compute a water quality integrative index. By applying a Monte Carlo technique, based on non-parametric probability distributions, the randomness of model inputs was estimated. Annual histograms of nine water quality variables were built with monitoring data systematically collected in the Colombian Cauca River, and probability density estimations using the kernel smoothing method were applied to fit data. Several years were assessed, and river sectors upstream and downstream the city of Santiago de Cali, a big city with basic wastewater treatment and high industrial activity, were analyzed. The probabilistic fuzzy water quality index was able to explain the reduction in water quality, as the river receives a larger number of agriculture, domestic, and industrial effluents. The results of the hybrid model were compared to traditional water quality indexes. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it considers flexible boundaries between the linguistic qualifiers used to define the water status, being the belongingness of water quality to the diverse output fuzzy sets or classes provided with percentiles and histograms, which allows classify better the real water condition. The results of this study show that fuzzy inference systems integrated to stochastic non-parametric techniques may be used as complementary tools in water quality indexing methodologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust output feedback stabilization for a flexible marine riser system.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhijia; Liu, Yu; Guo, Fang

2017-12-06

The aim of this paper is to develop a boundary control for the vibration reduction of a flexible marine riser system in the presence of parametric uncertainties and system states obtained inaccurately. To this end, an adaptive output feedback boundary control is proposed to suppress the riser's vibration fusing with observer-based backstepping, high-gain observers and robust adaptive control theory. In addition, the parameter adaptive laws are designed to compensate for the system parametric uncertainties, and the disturbance observer is introduced to mitigate the effects of external environmental disturbance. The uniformly bounded stability of the closed-loop system is achieved through rigorous Lyapunov analysis without any discretisation or simplification of the dynamics in the time and space, and the state observer error is ensured to exponentially converge to zero as time grows to infinity. In the end, the simulation and comparison studies are carried out to illustrate the performance of the proposed control under the proper choice of the design parameters. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool (MMPAT) Version 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Eric G.; Chang, George W.; Chen, Fannie C.

2012-01-01

The Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool (MMPAT) simulates a spacecraft power subsystem including the power source (solar array and/or radioisotope thermoelectric generator), bus-voltage control, secondary battery (lithium-ion or nickel-hydrogen), thermostatic heaters, and power-consuming equipment. It handles multiple mission types including heliocentric orbiters, planetary orbiters, and surface operations. Being parametrically driven along with its user-programmable features can reduce or even eliminate any need for software modifications when configuring it for a particular spacecraft. It provides multiple levels of fidelity, thereby fulfilling the vast majority of a project s power simulation needs throughout the lifecycle. It can operate in a stand-alone mode with a graphical user interface, in batch mode, or as a library linked with other tools. This software can simulate all major aspects of a spacecraft power subsystem. It is parametrically driven to reduce or eliminate the need for a programmer. Added flexibility is provided through user-designed state models and table-driven parameters. MMPAT is designed to be used by a variety of users, such as power subsystem engineers for sizing power subsystem components; mission planners for adjusting mission scenarios using power profiles generated by the model; system engineers for performing system- level trade studies using the results of the model during the early design phases of a spacecraft; and operations personnel for high-fidelity modeling of the essential power aspect of the planning picture.

Variable Selection for Nonparametric Quantile Regression via Smoothing Spline AN OVA

PubMed Central

Lin, Chen-Yen; Bondell, Howard; Zhang, Hao Helen; Zou, Hui

2014-01-01

Quantile regression provides a more thorough view of the effect of covariates on a response. Nonparametric quantile regression has become a viable alternative to avoid restrictive parametric assumption. The problem of variable selection for quantile regression is challenging, since important variables can influence various quantiles in different ways. We tackle the problem via regularization in the context of smoothing spline ANOVA models. The proposed sparse nonparametric quantile regression (SNQR) can identify important variables and provide flexible estimates for quantiles. Our numerical study suggests the promising performance of the new procedure in variable selection and function estimation. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. PMID:24554792

Hyperbolic and semi-parametric models in finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, N. H.; Kiesel, Rüdiger

2001-02-01

The benchmark Black-Scholes-Merton model of mathematical finance is parametric, based on the normal/Gaussian distribution. Its principal parametric competitor, the hyperbolic model of Barndorff-Nielsen, Eberlein and others, is briefly discussed. Our main theme is the use of semi-parametric models, incorporating the mean vector and covariance matrix as in the Markowitz approach, plus a non-parametric part, a scalar function incorporating features such as tail-decay. Implementation is also briefly discussed.

An investigation of soil-structure interaction effects observed at the MIT Green Building

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taciroglu, Ertugrul; Çelebi, Mehmet; Ghahari, S. Farid; Abazarsa, Fariba

2016-01-01

The soil-foundation impedance function of the MIT Green Building is identified from its response signals recorded during an earthquake. Estimation of foundation impedance functions from seismic response signals is a challenging task, because: (1) the foundation input motions (FIMs) are not directly measurable, (2) the as-built properties of the super-structure are only approximately known, and (3) the soil-foundation impedance functions are inherently frequency-dependent. In the present study, aforementioned difficulties are circumvented by using, in succession, a blind modal identification (BMID) method, a simplified Timoshenko beam model (TBM), and a parametric updating of transfer functions (TFs). First, the flexible-base modal properties of the building are identified from response signals using the BMID method. Then, a flexible-base TBM is updated using the identified modal data. Finally, the frequency-dependent soil-foundation impedance function is estimated by minimizing the discrepancy between TFs (of pairs instrumented floors) that are (1) obtained experimentally from earthquake data and (2) analytically from the updated TBM. Using the fully identified flexible-base TBM, the FIMs as well as building responses at locations without instruments can be predicted, as demonstrated in the present study.

Control and trajectory design of a highly flexible air vehicle with a distributed sensing architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pachikara, Abraham James

Next generational aircraft are becoming very flexible due to efforts to reduce weight and increase aerodynamic efficiency. As a result, flight control systems and trajectories that were designed with traditional rigid body assumptions may no longer become valid. When an aircraft becomes more flexible, the shape of the aircraft can deform significantly due to the aeroservoelastic dynamics. No longer are few sensors located at the CG and elsewhere will be enough to maximize performance. Instead, a full suite of sensors will be needed all throughout the aircraft to accurately measure the complete aerodynamic distribution and dynamics. First, a parametric study will be conducted to understand how flexibility impacts both the open-loop and closed-loop dynamics of a generic micro air vehicle (MAV). Once the impact of flexibility on the MAV's aeroservoelastic dynamics is well understood, an aeroservoelastic flight controller will be designed that leverages a "Fly-By-Feel" sensor architecture. A sensor architecture will be developed that uses several sensors to estimate the MAV's full aerodynamic and inertial distribution along with inertial sensors at the CG. A modal filtering approach will be used for the relevant sensor management and to extract useful modal characteristics from the sensor data. Once that is done, a controller will be designed for maneuver tracking. Once a flight controller has been designed, a set of representative motion primitives for the MAV can be developed that model how the aircraft moves for trajectory generation. Then trajectories can be developed for the flexible vehicle. Analysis will then be conducted to understand how flexibility impacts the creation of trajectories and MAV performance metrics.

Exploring cluster Monte Carlo updates with Boltzmann machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lei

2017-11-01

Boltzmann machines are physics informed generative models with broad applications in machine learning. They model the probability distribution of an input data set with latent variables and generate new samples accordingly. Applying the Boltzmann machines back to physics, they are ideal recommender systems to accelerate the Monte Carlo simulation of physical systems due to their flexibility and effectiveness. More intriguingly, we show that the generative sampling of the Boltzmann machines can even give different cluster Monte Carlo algorithms. The latent representation of the Boltzmann machines can be designed to mediate complex interactions and identify clusters of the physical system. We demonstrate these findings with concrete examples of the classical Ising model with and without four-spin plaquette interactions. In the future, automatic searches in the algorithm space parametrized by Boltzmann machines may discover more innovative Monte Carlo updates.

On the diversity of compact objects within supernova remnants - I. A parametric model for magnetic field evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, Adam; Safi-Harb, Samar

2016-04-01

A wealth of X-ray and radio observations has revealed in the past decade a growing diversity of neutron stars (NSs) with properties spanning orders of magnitude in magnetic field strength and ages, and with emission processes explained by a range of mechanisms dictating their radiation properties. However, serious difficulties exist with the magneto-dipole model of isolated NS fields and their inferred ages, such as a large range of observed braking indices (n, with values often <3) and a mismatch between the NS and associated supernova remnant (SNR) ages. This problem arises primarily from the assumptions of a constant magnetic field with n = 3, and an initial spin period that is much smaller than the observed current period. It has been suggested that a solution to this problem involves magnetic field evolution, with some NSs having magnetic fields buried within the crust by accretion of fall-back supernova material following their birth. In this work, we explore a parametric phenomenological model for magnetic field growth that generalizes previous suggested field evolution functions, and apply it to a variety of NSs with both secure SNR associations and known ages. We explore the flexibility of the model by recovering the results of previous work on buried magnetic fields in young NSs. Our model fits suggest that apparently disparate classes of NSs may be related to one another through the time evolution of the magnetic field.

Multi-Parametric Analysis and Modeling of Relationships between Mitochondrial Morphology and Apoptosis

PubMed Central

Reis, Yara; Wolf, Thomas; Brors, Benedikt; Hamacher-Brady, Anne; Eils, Roland; Brady, Nathan R.

2012-01-01

Mitochondria exist as a network of interconnected organelles undergoing constant fission and fusion. Current approaches to study mitochondrial morphology are limited by low data sampling coupled with manual identification and classification of complex morphological phenotypes. Here we propose an integrated mechanistic and data-driven modeling approach to analyze heterogeneous, quantified datasets and infer relations between mitochondrial morphology and apoptotic events. We initially performed high-content, multi-parametric measurements of mitochondrial morphological, apoptotic, and energetic states by high-resolution imaging of human breast carcinoma MCF-7 cells. Subsequently, decision tree-based analysis was used to automatically classify networked, fragmented, and swollen mitochondrial subpopulations, at the single-cell level and within cell populations. Our results revealed subtle but significant differences in morphology class distributions in response to various apoptotic stimuli. Furthermore, key mitochondrial functional parameters including mitochondrial membrane potential and Bax activation, were measured under matched conditions. Data-driven fuzzy logic modeling was used to explore the non-linear relationships between mitochondrial morphology and apoptotic signaling, combining morphological and functional data as a single model. Modeling results are in accordance with previous studies, where Bax regulates mitochondrial fragmentation, and mitochondrial morphology influences mitochondrial membrane potential. In summary, we established and validated a platform for mitochondrial morphological and functional analysis that can be readily extended with additional datasets. We further discuss the benefits of a flexible systematic approach for elucidating specific and general relationships between mitochondrial morphology and apoptosis. PMID:22272225

The soil water characteristic as new class of closed-form parametric expressions for the flow duration curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadegh, M.; Vrugt, J. A.; Gupta, H. V.; Xu, C.

2016-04-01

The flow duration curve is a signature catchment characteristic that depicts graphically the relationship between the exceedance probability of streamflow and its magnitude. This curve is relatively easy to create and interpret, and is used widely for hydrologic analysis, water quality management, and the design of hydroelectric power plants (among others). Several mathematical expressions have been proposed to mimic the FDC. Yet, these efforts have not been particularly successful, in large part because available functions are not flexible enough to portray accurately the functional shape of the FDC for a large range of catchments and contrasting hydrologic behaviors. Here, we extend the work of Vrugt and Sadegh (2013) and introduce several commonly used models of the soil water characteristic as new class of closed-form parametric expressions for the flow duration curve. These soil water retention functions are relatively simple to use, contain between two to three parameters, and mimic closely the empirical FDCs of 430 catchments of the MOPEX data set. We then relate the calibrated parameter values of these models to physical and climatological characteristics of the watershed using multivariate linear regression analysis, and evaluate the regionalization potential of our proposed models against those of the literature. If quality of fit is of main importance then the 3-parameter van Genuchten model is preferred, whereas the 2-parameter lognormal, 3-parameter GEV and generalized Pareto models show greater promise for regionalization.

Flexible and structured survival model for a simultaneous estimation of non-linear and non-proportional effects and complex interactions between continuous variables: Performance of this multidimensional penalized spline approach in net survival trend analysis.

PubMed

Remontet, Laurent; Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Iwaz, Jean; Belot, Aurélien; Danieli, Coraline; Charvat, Hadrien; Roche, Laurent

2018-01-01

Cancer survival trend analyses are essential to describe accurately the way medical practices impact patients' survival according to the year of diagnosis. To this end, survival models should be able to account simultaneously for non-linear and non-proportional effects and for complex interactions between continuous variables. However, in the statistical literature, there is no consensus yet on how to build such models that should be flexible but still provide smooth estimates of survival. In this article, we tackle this challenge by smoothing the complex hypersurface (time since diagnosis, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, and mortality hazard) using a multidimensional penalized spline built from the tensor product of the marginal bases of time, age, and year. Considering this penalized survival model as a Poisson model, we assess the performance of this approach in estimating the net survival with a comprehensive simulation study that reflects simple and complex realistic survival trends. The bias was generally small and the root mean squared error was good and often similar to that of the true model that generated the data. This parametric approach offers many advantages and interesting prospects (such as forecasting) that make it an attractive and efficient tool for survival trend analyses.

An experimental and analytical investigation of proprotor whirl flutter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kvaternik, R. G.; Kohn, J. S.

1977-01-01

The results of an experimental parametric investigation of whirl flutter are presented for a model consisting of a windmilling propeller-rotor, or proprotor, having blades with offset flapping hinges mounted on a rigid pylon with flexibility in pitch and yaw. The investigation was motivated by the need to establish a large data base from which to assess the predictability of whirl flutter for a proprotor since some question has been raised as to whether flutter in the forward whirl mode could be predicted with confidence. To provide the necessary data base, the parametric study included variation in the pylon pitch and yaw stiffnesses, flapping hinge offset, and blade kinematic pitch-flap coupling over a large range of advance ratios. Cases of forward whirl flutter and of backward whirl flutter are documented. Measured whirl flutter characteristics were shown to be in good agreement with predictions from two different linear stability analyses which employed simple, two dimensional, quasi-steady aerodynamics for the blade loading. On the basis of these results, it appears that proprotor whirl flutter, both forward and backward, can be predicted.

Analysing child mortality in Nigeria with geoadditive discrete-time survival models.

PubMed

Adebayo, Samson B; Fahrmeir, Ludwig

2005-03-15

Child mortality reflects a country's level of socio-economic development and quality of life. In developing countries, mortality rates are not only influenced by socio-economic, demographic and health variables but they also vary considerably across regions and districts. In this paper, we analysed child mortality in Nigeria with flexible geoadditive discrete-time survival models. This class of models allows us to measure small-area district-specific spatial effects simultaneously with possibly non-linear or time-varying effects of other factors. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques. The application is based on the 1999 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Our method assesses effects at a high level of temporal and spatial resolution not available with traditional parametric models, and the results provide some evidence on how to reduce child mortality by improving socio-economic and public health conditions. Copyright (c) 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), an alternative for the analysis of time series].

PubMed

Vanegas, Jairo; Vásquez, Fabián

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is a non-parametric modelling method that extends the linear model, incorporating nonlinearities and interactions between variables. It is a flexible tool that automates the construction of predictive models: selecting relevant variables, transforming the predictor variables, processing missing values and preventing overshooting using a self-test. It is also able to predict, taking into account structural factors that might influence the outcome variable, thereby generating hypothetical models. The end result could identify relevant cut-off points in data series. It is rarely used in health, so it is proposed as a tool for the evaluation of relevant public health indicators. For demonstrative purposes, data series regarding the mortality of children under 5 years of age in Costa Rica were used, comprising the period 1978-2008. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The Generic Resolution Advisor and Conflict Evaluator (GRACE) for Unmanned Aircraft Detect-And-Avoid Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abramson, Michael; Refai, Mohamad; Santiago, Confesor

2017-01-01

The paper describes the Generic Resolution Advisor and Conflict Evaluator (GRACE), a novel alerting and guidance algorithm that combines flexibility, robustness, and computational efficiency. GRACE is generic since it was designed without any assumptions regarding temporal or spatial scales, aircraft performance, or its sensor and communication systems. Therefore, GRACE was adopted as a core component of the Java Architecture for Detect-And-Avoid (DAA) Extensibility and Modeling, developed by NASA as a research and modeling tool for Unmanned Aerial Systems Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS). GRACE has been used in a number of real-time and fast-time experiments supporting evolving requirements of DAA research, including parametric studies, NAS-wide simulations, human-in-the-loop experiments, and live flight tests.

CW seeded optical parametric amplifier providing wavelength and pulse duration tunable nearly transform limited pulses.

PubMed

Hädrich, S; Gottschall, T; Rothhardt, J; Limpert, J; Tünnermann, A

2010-02-01

An optical parametric amplifier that delivers nearly transform limited pulses is presented. The center wavelength of these pulses can be tuned between 993 nm and 1070 nm and, at the same time, the pulse duration is varied between 206 fs and 650 fs. At the shortest pulse duration the pulse energy was increased up to 7.2 microJ at 50 kHz repetition rate. Variation of the wavelength is achieved by applying a tunable cw seed while the pulse duration can be varied via altering the pump pulse duration. This scheme offers superior flexibility and scaling possibilities.

Engineering the Frequency Spectrum of Bright Squeezed Vacuum via Group Velocity Dispersion in an SU(1,1) Interferometer.

PubMed

Lemieux, Samuel; Manceau, Mathieu; Sharapova, Polina R; Tikhonova, Olga V; Boyd, Robert W; Leuchs, Gerd; Chekhova, Maria V

2016-10-28

Bright squeezed vacuum, a promising tool for quantum information, can be generated by high-gain parametric down-conversion. However, its frequency and angular spectra are typically quite broad, which is undesirable for applications requiring single-mode radiation. We tailor the frequency spectrum of high-gain parametric down-conversion using an SU(1,1) interferometer consisting of two nonlinear crystals with a dispersive medium separating them. The dispersive medium allows us to select a narrow band of the frequency spectrum to be exponentially amplified by high-gain parametric amplification. The frequency spectrum is thereby narrowed from (56.5±0.1) to (1.22±0.02)  THz and, in doing so, the number of frequency modes is reduced from approximately 50 to 1.82±0.02. Moreover, this method provides control and flexibility over the spectrum of the generated light through the timing of the pump.

Parametrizing the Reionization History with the Redshift Midpoint, Duration, and Asymmetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trac, Hy

2018-05-01

A new parametrization of the reionization history is presented to facilitate robust comparisons between different observations and with theory. The evolution of the ionization fraction with redshift can be effectively captured by specifying the midpoint, duration, and asymmetry parameters. Lagrange interpolating functions are then used to construct analytical curves that exactly fit corresponding ionization points. The shape parametrizations are excellent matches to theoretical results from radiation-hydrodynamic simulations. The comparative differences for reionization observables are: ionization fraction | {{Δ }}{x}{{i}}| ≲ 0.03, 21 cm brightness temperature | {{Δ }}{T}{{b}}| ≲ 0.7 {mK}, Thomson optical depth | {{Δ }}τ | ≲ 0.001, and patchy kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich angular power | {{Δ }}{D}{\\ell }| ≲ 0.1 μ {{{K}}}2. This accurate and flexible approach will allow parameter-space studies and self-consistent constraints on the reionization history from 21 cm, cosmic microwave background (CMB), and high-redshift galaxies and quasars.

Functional mechanisms of probabilistic inference in feature- and space-based attentional systems.

PubMed

Dombert, Pascasie L; Kuhns, Anna; Mengotti, Paola; Fink, Gereon R; Vossel, Simone

2016-11-15

Humans flexibly attend to features or locations and these processes are influenced by the probability of sensory events. We combined computational modeling of response times with fMRI to compare the functional correlates of (re-)orienting, and the modulation by probabilistic inference in spatial and feature-based attention systems. Twenty-four volunteers performed two task versions with spatial or color cues. Percentage of cue validity changed unpredictably. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used to derive trial-wise estimates of probability-dependent attention, entering the fMRI analysis as parametric regressors. Attentional orienting activated a dorsal frontoparietal network in both tasks, without significant parametric modulation. Spatially invalid trials activated a bilateral frontoparietal network and the precuneus, while invalid feature trials activated the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS). Probability-dependent attention modulated activity in the precuneus, left posterior IPS, middle occipital gyrus, and right temporoparietal junction for spatial attention, and in the left anterior IPS for feature-based and spatial attention. These findings provide novel insights into the generality and specificity of the functional basis of attentional control. They suggest that probabilistic inference can distinctively affect each attentional subsystem, but that there is an overlap in the left IPS, which responds to both spatial and feature-based expectancy violations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigation of the effects of sleeper-passing impacts on the high-speed train

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xingwen; Cai, Wubin; Chi, Maoru; Wei, Lai; Shi, Huailong; Zhu, Minhao

2015-12-01

The sleeper-passing impact has always been considered negligible in normal conditions, while the experimental data obtained from a High-speed train in a cold weather expressed significant sleeper-passing impacts on the axle box, bogie frame and car body. Therefore, in this study, a vertical coupled vehicle/track dynamic model was developed to investigate the sleeper-passing impacts and its effects on the dynamic performance of the high-speed train. In the model, the dynamic model of vehicle is established with 10 degrees of freedom. The track model is formulated with two rails supported on the discrete supports through the finite element method. The contact forces between the wheel and rail are estimated using the non-linear Hertz contact theory. The parametric studies are conducted to analyse effects of both the vehicle speeds and the discrete support stiffness on the sleeper-passing impacts. The results show that the sleeper-passing impacts become extremely significant with the increased support stiffness of track, especially when the frequencies of sleeper-passing impacts approach to the resonance frequencies of wheel/track system. The damping of primary suspension can effectively lower the magnitude of impacts in the resonance speed ranges, but has little effect on other speed ranges. Finally, a more comprehensively coupled vehicle/track dynamic model integrating with a flexible wheel set is developed to discuss the sleeper-passing-induced flexible vibration of wheel set.

Parametric Modelling of As-Built Beam Framed Structure in Bim Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, X.; Koehl, M.; Grussenmeyer, P.

2017-02-01

A complete documentation and conservation of a historic timber roof requires the integration of geometry modelling, attributional and dynamic information management and results of structural analysis. Recently developed as-built Building Information Modelling (BIM) technique has the potential to provide a uniform platform, which provides possibility to integrate the traditional geometry modelling, parametric elements management and structural analysis together. The main objective of the project presented in this paper is to develop a parametric modelling tool for a timber roof structure whose elements are leaning and crossing beam frame. Since Autodesk Revit, as the typical BIM software, provides the platform for parametric modelling and information management, an API plugin, able to automatically create the parametric beam elements and link them together with strict relationship, was developed. The plugin under development is introduced in the paper, which can obtain the parametric beam model via Autodesk Revit API from total station points and terrestrial laser scanning data. The results show the potential of automatizing the parametric modelling by interactive API development in BIM environment. It also integrates the separate data processing and different platforms into the uniform Revit software.

Comparing Inference Approaches for RD Designs: A Reexamination of the Effect of Head Start on Child Mortality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cattaneo, Matias D.; Titiunik, Rocío; Vazquez-Bare, Gonzalo

2017-01-01

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular quasi-experimental design for causal inference and policy evaluation. The most common inference approaches in RD designs employ "flexible" parametric and nonparametric local polynomial methods, which rely on extrapolation and large-sample approximations of conditional expectations…

Application of selection and estimation regular vine copula on go public company share

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasna Afifah, R.; Noviyanti, Lienda; Bachrudin, Achmad

2018-03-01

The accuracy of financial risk management involving a large number of assets is needed, but information about dependencies among assets cannot be adequately analyzed. To analyze dependencies on a number of assets, several tools have been added to standard multivariate copula. However, these tools have not been adequately used in apps with higher dimensions. The bivariate parametric copula families can be used to solve it. The multivariate copula can be built from the bivariate parametric copula which is connected by a graphical representation to become Pair Copula Constructions (PCCs) or vine copula. The application of C-vine and D-vine copula have been used in some researches, but the use of C-vine and D-vine copula is more limited than R-vine copula. Therefore, this study used R-vine copula to provide flexibility for modeling complex dependencies on a high dimension. Since copula is a static model, while stock values change over time, then copula should be combined with the ARMA- GARCH model for modeling the movement of shares (volatility). The objective of this paper is to select and estimate R-vine copula which is used to analyze PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR), PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk (WSKT), and PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI) from august 31, 2014 to august 31, 2017. From the method it is obtained that the selected copulas for 2 edges at the first tree are survival Gumbel and the copula for edge at the second tree is Gaussian.

SOFIA: a flexible source finder for 3D spectral line data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serra, Paolo; Westmeier, Tobias; Giese, Nadine; Jurek, Russell; Flöer, Lars; Popping, Attila; Winkel, Benjamin; van der Hulst, Thijs; Meyer, Martin; Koribalski, Bärbel S.; Staveley-Smith, Lister; Courtois, Hélène

2015-04-01

We introduce SOFIA, a flexible software application for the detection and parametrization of sources in 3D spectral line data sets. SOFIA combines for the first time in a single piece of software a set of new source-finding and parametrization algorithms developed on the way to future H I surveys with ASKAP (WALLABY, DINGO) and APERTIF. It is designed to enable the general use of these new algorithms by the community on a broad range of data sets. The key advantages of SOFIA are the ability to: search for line emission on multiple scales to detect 3D sources in a complete and reliable way, taking into account noise level variations and the presence of artefacts in a data cube; estimate the reliability of individual detections; look for signal in arbitrarily large data cubes using a catalogue of 3D coordinates as a prior; provide a wide range of source parameters and output products which facilitate further analysis by the user. We highlight the modularity of SOFIA, which makes it a flexible package allowing users to select and apply only the algorithms useful for their data and science questions. This modularity makes it also possible to easily expand SOFIA in order to include additional methods as they become available. The full SOFIA distribution, including a dedicated graphical user interface, is publicly available for download.

Contact Modelling in Isogeometric Analysis: Application to Sheet Metal Forming Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Rui P. R.; Adetoro, O. B.; Adan, D.

2016-08-01

Isogeometric Analysis (IGA) has been growing in popularity in the past few years essentially due to the extra flexibility it introduces with the use of higher degrees in the basis functions leading to higher convergence rates. IGA also offers the capability of easily reproducing discontinuous displacement and/or strain fields by just manipulating the multiplicity of the knot parametric coordinates. Another advantage of IGA is that it uses the Non-Uniform Rational B-Splines (NURBS) basis functions, that are very common in CAD solid modelling, and consequently it makes easier the transition from CAD models to numerical analysis. In this work it is explored the contact analysis in IGA for both implicit and explicit time integration schemes. Special focus will be given on contact search and contact detection techniques under NURBS patches for both the rigid tools and the deformed sheet blank.

Progress in and prospects for fluvial flood modelling.

PubMed

Wheater, H S

2002-07-15

Recent floods in the UK have raised public and political awareness of flood risk. There is an increasing recognition that flood management and land-use planning are linked, and that decision-support modelling tools are required to address issues of climate and land-use change for integrated catchment management. In this paper, the scientific context for fluvial flood modelling is discussed, current modelling capability is considered and research challenges are identified. Priorities include (i) appropriate representation of spatial precipitation, including scenarios of climate change; (ii) development of a national capability for continuous hydrological simulation of ungauged catchments; (iii) improved scientific understanding of impacts of agricultural land-use and land-management change, and the development of new modelling approaches to represent those impacts; (iv) improved representation of urban flooding, at both local and catchment scale; (v) appropriate parametrizations for hydraulic simulation of in-channel and flood-plain flows, assimilating available ground observations and remotely sensed data; and (vi) a flexible decision-support modelling framework, incorporating developments in computing, data availability, data assimilation and uncertainty analysis.

Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

2008-01-01

A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

Molecular Mechanics

PubMed Central

Vanommeslaeghe, Kenno; Guvench, Olgun; MacKerell, Alexander D.

2014-01-01

Molecular Mechanics (MM) force fields are the methods of choice for protein simulations, which are essential in the study of conformational flexibility. Given the importance of protein flexibility in drug binding, MM is involved in most if not all Computational Structure-Based Drug Discovery (CSBDD) projects. This section introduces the reader to the fundamentals of MM, with a special emphasis on how the target data used in the parametrization of force fields determine their strengths and weaknesses. Variations and recent developments such as polarizable force fields are discussed. The section ends with a brief overview of common force fields in CSBDD. PMID:23947650

Research on simplified parametric finite element model of automobile frontal crash

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Linan; Zhang, Xin; Yang, Changhai

2018-05-01

The modeling method and key technologies of the automobile frontal crash simplified parametric finite element model is studied in this paper. By establishing the auto body topological structure, extracting and parameterizing the stiffness properties of substructures, choosing appropriate material models for substructures, the simplified parametric FE model of M6 car is built. The comparison of the results indicates that the simplified parametric FE model can accurately calculate the automobile crash responses and the deformation of the key substructures, and the simulation time is reduced from 6 hours to 2 minutes.

Why preferring parametric forecasting to nonparametric methods?

PubMed

Jabot, Franck

2015-05-07

A recent series of papers by Charles T. Perretti and collaborators have shown that nonparametric forecasting methods can outperform parametric methods in noisy nonlinear systems. Such a situation can arise because of two main reasons: the instability of parametric inference procedures in chaotic systems which can lead to biased parameter estimates, and the discrepancy between the real system dynamics and the modeled one, a problem that Perretti and collaborators call "the true model myth". Should ecologists go on using the demanding parametric machinery when trying to forecast the dynamics of complex ecosystems? Or should they rely on the elegant nonparametric approach that appears so promising? It will be here argued that ecological forecasting based on parametric models presents two key comparative advantages over nonparametric approaches. First, the likelihood of parametric forecasting failure can be diagnosed thanks to simple Bayesian model checking procedures. Second, when parametric forecasting is diagnosed to be reliable, forecasting uncertainty can be estimated on virtual data generated with the fitted to data parametric model. In contrast, nonparametric techniques provide forecasts with unknown reliability. This argumentation is illustrated with the simple theta-logistic model that was previously used by Perretti and collaborators to make their point. It should convince ecologists to stick to standard parametric approaches, until methods have been developed to assess the reliability of nonparametric forecasting. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool (CAMDT) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ines, A. V. M.; Han, E.; Baethgen, W.

2017-12-01

Advances in seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) during the past decades have brought great potential to improve agricultural climate risk managements associated with inter-annual climate variability. In spite of popular uses of crop simulation models in addressing climate risk problems, the models cannot readily take seasonal climate predictions issued in the format of tercile probabilities of most likely rainfall categories (i.e, below-, near- and above-normal). When a skillful SCF is linked with the crop simulation models, the informative climate information can be further translated into actionable agronomic terms and thus better support strategic and tactical decisions. In other words, crop modeling connected with a given SCF allows to simulate "what-if" scenarios with different crop choices or management practices and better inform the decision makers. In this paper, we present a decision support tool, called CAMDT (Climate Agriculture Modeling and Decision Tool), which seamlessly integrates probabilistic SCFs to DSSAT-CSM-Rice model to guide decision-makers in adopting appropriate crop and agricultural water management practices for given climatic conditions. The CAMDT has a functionality to disaggregate a probabilistic SCF into daily weather realizations (either a parametric or non-parametric disaggregation method) and to run DSSAT-CSM-Rice with the disaggregated weather realizations. The convenient graphical user-interface allows easy implementation of several "what-if" scenarios for non-technical users and visualize the results of the scenario runs. In addition, the CAMDT also translates crop model outputs to economic terms once the user provides expected crop price and cost. The CAMDT is a practical tool for real-world applications, specifically for agricultural climate risk management in the Bicol region, Philippines, having a great flexibility for being adapted to other crops or regions in the world. CAMDT GitHub: https://github.com/Agro-Climate/CAMDT

A survey of kernel-type estimators for copula and their applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumarjaya, I. W.

2017-10-01

Copulas have been widely used to model nonlinear dependence structure. Main applications of copulas include areas such as finance, insurance, hydrology, rainfall to name but a few. The flexibility of copula allows researchers to model dependence structure beyond Gaussian distribution. Basically, a copula is a function that couples multivariate distribution functions to their one-dimensional marginal distribution functions. In general, there are three methods to estimate copula. These are parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric method. In this article we survey kernel-type estimators for copula such as mirror reflection kernel, beta kernel, transformation method and local likelihood transformation method. Then, we apply these kernel methods to three stock indexes in Asia. The results of our analysis suggest that, albeit variation in information criterion values, the local likelihood transformation method performs better than the other kernel methods.

Acceleration of the direct reconstruction of linear parametric images using nested algorithms.

PubMed

Wang, Guobao; Qi, Jinyi

2010-03-07

Parametric imaging using dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) provides important information for biological research and clinical diagnosis. Indirect and direct methods have been developed for reconstructing linear parametric images from dynamic PET data. Indirect methods are relatively simple and easy to implement because the image reconstruction and kinetic modeling are performed in two separate steps. Direct methods estimate parametric images directly from raw PET data and are statistically more efficient. However, the convergence rate of direct algorithms can be slow due to the coupling between the reconstruction and kinetic modeling. Here we present two fast gradient-type algorithms for direct reconstruction of linear parametric images. The new algorithms decouple the reconstruction and linear parametric modeling at each iteration by employing the principle of optimization transfer. Convergence speed is accelerated by running more sub-iterations of linear parametric estimation because the computation cost of the linear parametric modeling is much less than that of the image reconstruction. Computer simulation studies demonstrated that the new algorithms converge much faster than the traditional expectation maximization (EM) and the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithms for dynamic PET.

Parametric investigation of scalable tactile sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saadatzi, Mohammad Nasser; Yang, Zhong; Baptist, Joshua R.; Sahasrabuddhe, Ritvij R.; Wijayasinghe, Indika B.; Popa, Dan O.

2017-05-01

In the near future, robots and humans will share the same environment and perform tasks cooperatively. For intuitive, safe, and reliable physical human-robot interaction (pHRI), sensorized robot skins for tactile measurements of contact are necessary. In a previous study, we presented skins consisting of strain gauge arrays encased in silicone encapsulants. Although these structures could measure normal forces applied directly onto the sensing elements, they also exhibited blind spots and response asymmetry to certain loading patterns. This study presents a parametric investigation of piezoresistive polymeric strain gauge that exhibits a symmetric omniaxial response thanks to its novel star-shaped structure. This strain gauge relies on the use of gold micro-patterned star-shaped structures with a thin layer of PEDOT:PSS which is a flexible polymer with piezoresistive properties. In this paper, the sensor is first modeled and comprehensively analyzed in the finite-element simulation environment COMSOL. Simulations include stress-strain loading for a variety of structure parameters such as gauge lengths, widths, and spacing, as well as multiple load locations relative to the gauge. Subsequently, sensors with optimized configurations obtained through simulations were fabricated using cleanroom photolithographic and spin-coating processes, and then experimentally tested. Results show a trend-wise agreement between experiments and simulations.

Numerical investigation of galloping instabilities in Z-shaped profiles.

PubMed

Gomez, Ignacio; Chavez, Miguel; Alonso, Gustavo; Valero, Eusebio

2014-01-01

Aeroelastic effects are relatively common in the design of modern civil constructions such as office blocks, airport terminal buildings, and factories. Typical flexible structures exposed to the action of wind are shading devices, normally slats or louvers. A typical cross-section for such elements is a Z-shaped profile, made out of a central web and two-side wings. Galloping instabilities are often determined in practice using the Glauert-Den Hartog criterion. This criterion relies on accurate predictions of the dependence of the aerodynamic force coefficients with the angle of attack. The results of a parametric analysis based on a numerical analysis and performed on different Z-shaped louvers to determine translational galloping instability regions are presented in this paper. These numerical analysis results have been validated with a parametric analysis of Z-shaped profiles based on static wind tunnel tests. In order to perform this validation, the DLR TAU Code, which is a standard code within the European aeronautical industry, has been used. This study highlights the focus on the numerical prediction of the effect of galloping, which is shown in a visible way, through stability maps. Comparisons between numerical and experimental data are presented with respect to various meshes and turbulence models.

A parametric analysis of a controlled deployable space manipulator for capturing a non-cooperative flexible satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolfi, A.; Gasbarri, P.; Sabatini, M.

2018-07-01

In the near future robotic systems will be playing an increasingly important role in space applications such as repairing, refueling, re-orbiting spacecraft and cleaning up the increasing amount of space debris. Space Manipulator Systems (SMSs) are robotic systems made of a bus (which has its own actuators such as thrusters and reaction wheels) equipped with one or more deployable arms. The present paper focuses on the issue of maintaining a stable first contact between the arms terminal parts (i.e. the end-effectors) and a non-cooperative target satellite, before the actual grasp is performed. The selected approach is a modified version of the Impedance Control algorithm in which the end-effector is controlled in order to make it behave like a mass-spring-damper system regardless of the reaction motion of the base, so to absorb the impact energy. The effects of non-modeled dynamics in control determination such as the structural flexibility of the manipulator and the target satellite are considered as well, and their impact on control effectiveness is analyzed. The performance of the proposed control architecture and a parametric analysis are studied by means of a co-simulation involving the MSC Adams multibody code (for describing the dynamics of the space robot and target) together with Simulink (for the determination of the control actions). The results show that the first contact phase of the grasping operation of a large satellite requires careful tuning of the control gains and a proper selection of the end-effector dimensions; otherwise, the large geometric and inertia characteristics of the target could lead to a failure with serious consequences. Both successful and underperforming cases are presented and commented in the paper.

Further Empirical Results on Parametric Versus Non-Parametric IRT Modeling of Likert-Type Personality Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maydeu-Olivares, Albert

2005-01-01

Chernyshenko, Stark, Chan, Drasgow, and Williams (2001) investigated the fit of Samejima's logistic graded model and Levine's non-parametric MFS model to the scales of two personality questionnaires and found that the graded model did not fit well. We attribute the poor fit of the graded model to small amounts of multidimensionality present in…

Information transfer satellite concept study. Volume 4: computer manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergin, P.; Kincade, C.; Kurpiewski, D.; Leinhaupel, F.; Millican, F.; Onstad, R.

1971-01-01

The Satellite Telecommunications Analysis and Modeling Program (STAMP) provides the user with a flexible and comprehensive tool for the analysis of ITS system requirements. While obtaining minimum cost design points, the program enables the user to perform studies over a wide range of user requirements and parametric demands. The program utilizes a total system approach wherein the ground uplink and downlink, the spacecraft, and the launch vehicle are simultaneously synthesized. A steepest descent algorithm is employed to determine the minimum total system cost design subject to the fixed user requirements and imposed constraints. In the process of converging to the solution, the pertinent subsystem tradeoffs are resolved. This report documents STAMP through a technical analysis and a description of the principal techniques employed in the program.

The application of cure models in the presence of competing risks: a tool for improved risk communication in population-based cancer patient survival.

PubMed

Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C; Andersson, Therese M-L; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W

2014-09-01

Quantifying cancer patient survival from the perspective of cure is clinically relevant. However, most cure models estimate cure assuming no competing causes of death. We use a relative survival framework to demonstrate how flexible parametric cure models can be used in combination with competing-risks theory to incorporate noncancer deaths. Under a model that incorporates statistical cure, we present the probabilities that cancer patients (1) have died from their cancer, (2) have died from other causes, (3) will eventually die from their cancer, or (4) will eventually die from other causes, all as a function of time since diagnosis. We further demonstrate how conditional probabilities can be used to update the prognosis among survivors (eg, at 1 or 5 years after diagnosis) by summarizing the proportion of patients who will not die from their cancer. The proposed method is applied to Swedish population-based data for persons diagnosed with melanoma, colon cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia between 1973 and 2007.

On the validation of cloud parametrization schemes in numerical atmospheric models with satellite data from ISCCP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinke, I.

2003-04-01

A new method is presented to validate cloud parametrization schemes in numerical atmospheric models with satellite data of scanning radiometers. This method is applied to the regional atmospheric model HRM (High Resolution Regional Model) using satellite data from ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project). Due to the limited reliability of former validations there has been a need for developing a new validation method: Up to now differences between simulated and measured cloud properties are mostly declared as deficiencies of the cloud parametrization scheme without further investigation. Other uncertainties connected with the model or with the measurements have not been taken into account. Therefore changes in the cloud parametrization scheme based on such kind of validations might not be realistic. The new method estimates uncertainties of the model and the measurements. Criteria for comparisons of simulated and measured data are derived to localize deficiencies in the model. For a better specification of these deficiencies simulated clouds are classified regarding their parametrization. With this classification the localized model deficiencies are allocated to a certain parametrization scheme. Applying this method to the regional model HRM the quality of forecasting cloud properties is estimated in detail. The overestimation of simulated clouds in low emissivity heights especially during the night is localized as model deficiency. This is caused by subscale cloudiness. As the simulation of subscale clouds in the regional model HRM is described by a relative humidity parametrization these deficiencies are connected with this parameterization.

Accelerated failure time models for semi-competing risks data in the presence of complex censoring.

PubMed

Lee, Kyu Ha; Rondeau, Virginie; Haneuse, Sebastien

2017-12-01

Statistical analyses that investigate risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD) are often subject to a number of challenges. Some of these challenges arise due to practical considerations regarding data collection such that the observation of AD events is subject to complex censoring including left-truncation and either interval or right-censoring. Additional challenges arise due to the fact that study participants under investigation are often subject to competing forces, most notably death, that may not be independent of AD. Towards resolving the latter, researchers may choose to embed the study of AD within the "semi-competing risks" framework for which the recent statistical literature has seen a number of advances including for the so-called illness-death model. To the best of our knowledge, however, the semi-competing risks literature has not fully considered analyses in contexts with complex censoring, as in studies of AD. This is particularly the case when interest lies with the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, an alternative to the traditional multiplicative Cox model that places emphasis away from the hazard function. In this article, we outline a new Bayesian framework for estimation/inference of an AFT illness-death model for semi-competing risks data subject to complex censoring. An efficient computational algorithm that gives researchers the flexibility to adopt either a fully parametric or a semi-parametric model specification is developed and implemented. The proposed methods are motivated by and illustrated with an analysis of data from the Adult Changes in Thought study, an on-going community-based prospective study of incident AD in western Washington State. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

A Quasi-Parametric Method for Fitting Flexible Item Response Functions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liang, Longjuan; Browne, Michael W.

2015-01-01

If standard two-parameter item response functions are employed in the analysis of a test with some newly constructed items, it can be expected that, for some items, the item response function (IRF) will not fit the data well. This lack of fit can also occur when standard IRFs are fitted to personality or psychopathology items. When investigating…

Prevalence Incidence Mixture Models

Cancer.gov

The R package and webtool fits Prevalence Incidence Mixture models to left-censored and irregularly interval-censored time to event data that is commonly found in screening cohorts assembled from electronic health records. Absolute and relative risk can be estimated for simple random sampling, and stratified sampling (the two approaches of superpopulation and a finite population are supported for target populations). Non-parametric (absolute risks only), semi-parametric, weakly-parametric (using B-splines), and some fully parametric (such as the logistic-Weibull) models are supported.

Microfabrication of low-loss lumped-element Josephson circuits for non-reciprocal and parametric devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cicak, Katarina; Lecocq, Florent; Ranzani, Leonardo; Peterson, Gabriel A.; Kotler, Shlomi; Teufel, John D.; Simmonds, Raymond W.; Aumentado, Jose

Recent developments in coupled mode theory have opened the doors to new nonreciprocal amplification techniques that can be directly leveraged to produce high quantum efficiency in current measurements in microwave quantum information. However, taking advantage of these techniques requires flexible multi-mode circuit designs comprised of low-loss materials that can be implemented using common fabrication techniques. In this talk we discuss the design and fabrication of a new class of multi-pole lumped-element superconducting parametric amplifiers based on Nb/Al-AlOx/Nb Josephson junctions on silicon or sapphire. To reduce intrinsic loss in these circuits we utilize PECVD amorphous silicon as a low-loss dielectric (tanδ 5 ×10-4), resulting in nearly quantum-limited directional amplification.

Recent advances in parametric neuroreceptor mapping with dynamic PET: basic concepts and graphical analyses.

PubMed

Seo, Seongho; Kim, Su Jin; Lee, Dong Soo; Lee, Jae Sung

2014-10-01

Tracer kinetic modeling in dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) has been widely used to investigate the characteristic distribution patterns or dysfunctions of neuroreceptors in brain diseases. Its practical goal has progressed from regional data quantification to parametric mapping that produces images of kinetic-model parameters by fully exploiting the spatiotemporal information in dynamic PET data. Graphical analysis (GA) is a major parametric mapping technique that is independent on any compartmental model configuration, robust to noise, and computationally efficient. In this paper, we provide an overview of recent advances in the parametric mapping of neuroreceptor binding based on GA methods. The associated basic concepts in tracer kinetic modeling are presented, including commonly-used compartment models and major parameters of interest. Technical details of GA approaches for reversible and irreversible radioligands are described, considering both plasma input and reference tissue input models. Their statistical properties are discussed in view of parametric imaging.

Dense granular flow around a rigid or flexible intruder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolb, Evelyne; Adda-Bedia, Mokhtar

2012-02-01

We experimentally studied the flow of a dense granular material around an obstacle (rigid cylinder or flexible plate) placed in a 2 dimensional confined cell at a packing fraction near the 2D jamming threshold. In the case of the rigid obstacle, the displacement field of grains as well as the drag force experienced by the obstacle were simultaneously recorded and a parametric study was done by changing the cell size, the intruder diameter or the packing fraction. The drag force experienced by the intruder and the formation of a wake behind the obstacle were very sensitive to the approach to jamming. The same experimental set-up was adapted to a flexible intruder and coupling between the granular flow and fibre deflexion were imaged. The deformation of the fibre could be compared with theoretical predictions from elastica.

Design, Modeling, and Fabrication of Chemical Vapor Deposition Grown MoS2 Circuits with E-Mode FETs for Large-Area Electronics.

PubMed

Yu, Lili; El-Damak, Dina; Radhakrishna, Ujwal; Ling, Xi; Zubair, Ahmad; Lin, Yuxuan; Zhang, Yuhao; Chuang, Meng-Hsi; Lee, Yi-Hsien; Antoniadis, Dimitri; Kong, Jing; Chandrakasan, Anantha; Palacios, Tomas

2016-10-12

Two-dimensional electronics based on single-layer (SL) MoS 2 offers significant advantages for realizing large-scale flexible systems owing to its ultrathin nature, good transport properties, and stable crystalline structure. In this work, we utilize a gate first process technology for the fabrication of highly uniform enhancement mode FETs with large mobility and excellent subthreshold swing. To enable large-scale MoS 2 circuit, we also develop Verilog-A compact models that accurately predict the performance of the fabricated MoS 2 FETs as well as a parametrized layout cell for the FET to facilitate the design and layout process using computer-aided design (CAD) tools. Using this CAD flow, we designed combinational logic gates and sequential circuits (AND, OR, NAND, NOR, XNOR, latch, edge-triggered register) as well as switched capacitor dc-dc converter, which were then fabricated using the proposed flow showing excellent performance. The fabricated integrated circuits constitute the basis of a standard cell digital library that is crucial for electronic circuit design using hardware description languages. The proposed design flow provides a platform for the co-optimization of the device fabrication technology and circuits design for future ubiquitous flexible and transparent electronics using two-dimensional materials.

First-Order Parametric Model of Reflectance Spectra for Dyed Fabrics

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-19

Unclassified Unlimited 31 Daniel Aiken (202) 279-5293 Parametric modeling Inverse /direct analysis This report describes a first-order parametric model of...Appendix: Dielectric Response Functions for Dyes Obtained by Inverse Analysis ……………………………...…………………………………………………….19 1 First-Order Parametric...which provides for both their inverse and direct modeling1. The dyes considered contain spectral features that are of interest to the U.S. Navy for

An EM-based semi-parametric mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data.

PubMed

Ng, S K; McLachlan, G J

2003-04-15

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Channelized debris flow hazard mitigation through the use of flexible barriers: a simplified computational approach for a sensitivity analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segalini, Andrea; Ferrero, Anna Maria; Brighenti, Roberto

2013-04-01

A channelized debris flow is usually represented by a mixture of solid particles of various sizes and water, flowing along a laterally confined inclined channel-shaped region up to an unconfined area where it slow down its motion and spreads out into a flat-shaped mass. The study of these phenomena is very difficult due to their short duration and unpredictability, lack of historical data for a given basin and complexity of the involved mechanical phenomena. The post event surveys allow for the identification of some depositional features and provide indication about the maximum flow height; however they lack information about development of the phenomena with time. For this purpose the monitoring of recursive events has been carried out by several Authors. Most of the studies, aimed at the determination of the characteristic features of a debris flow, were carried out in artificial channels, where the main involved variables were measured and other where controlled during the tests; however, some uncertainties remained and other scaled models where developed to simulate the deposition mechanics as well as to analyze the transportation mechanics and the energy dissipation. The assessment of the mechanical behavior of the protection structures upon impact with the flow as well as the energy associated to it are necessary for the proper design of such structures that, in densely populated area, can avoid victims and limit the destructive effects of such a phenomenon. In this work a simplified structural model, developed by the Authors for the safety assessment of retention barrier against channelized debris flow, is presented and some parametric cases are interpreted through the proposed approach; this model is developed as a simplified and efficient tool to be used for the verification of the supporting cables and foundations of a flexible debris flow barrier. The present analytical and numerical-based approach has a different aim of a FEM model. The computational experiences by using FEM modeling for these kind of structures, had shown that a large amount of time for both the geometrical setup of the model and its computation is necessary. The big effort required by FEM for this class of problems limits the actual possibility to investigate different geometrical configurations, load schemes etc. and it is suitable to represent a specific configuration but it does not allow for investigation of the influence of parameter changes. On the other hand parametrical analysis are common practice in geotechnical design for the quoted reasons. Consequently, the Authors felt the need to develop a simplified method (which is not yet available in our knowledge) that allow to perform several parametrical analysis in a limited time. It should be noted that, in this paper, no consideration regarding the mechanical and physical behavior of debris flows are carried out; the proposed model requires the input of parameters that must be acquired through a preliminary characterization of the design event. However, adopting the proposed tool, the designer will be able to perform sensitivity analysis that will help in quantify the influence of parameters variability as commonly occurs in geotechnical design.

Non-parametric identification of multivariable systems: A local rational modeling approach with application to a vibration isolation benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voorhoeve, Robbert; van der Maas, Annemiek; Oomen, Tom

2018-05-01

Frequency response function (FRF) identification is often used as a basis for control systems design and as a starting point for subsequent parametric system identification. The aim of this paper is to develop a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) local parametric modeling approach for FRF identification of lightly damped mechanical systems with improved speed and accuracy. The proposed method is based on local rational models, which can efficiently handle the lightly-damped resonant dynamics. A key aspect herein is the freedom in the multivariable rational model parametrizations. Several choices for such multivariable rational model parametrizations are proposed and investigated. For systems with many inputs and outputs the required number of model parameters can rapidly increase, adversely affecting the performance of the local modeling approach. Therefore, low-order model structures are investigated. The structure of these low-order parametrizations leads to an undesired directionality in the identification problem. To address this, an iterative local rational modeling algorithm is proposed. As a special case recently developed SISO algorithms are recovered. The proposed approach is successfully demonstrated on simulations and on an active vibration isolation system benchmark, confirming good performance of the method using significantly less parameters compared with alternative approaches.

Parametric Geometry, Structured Grid Generation, and Initial Design Study for REST-Class Hypersonic Inlets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferlemann, Paul G.; Gollan, Rowan J.

2010-01-01

Computational design and analysis of three-dimensional hypersonic inlets with shape transition has been a significant challenge due to the complex geometry and grid required for three-dimensional viscous flow calculations. Currently, the design process utilizes an inviscid design tool to produce initial inlet shapes by streamline tracing through an axisymmetric compression field. However, the shape is defined by a large number of points rather than a continuous surface and lacks important features such as blunt leading edges. Therefore, a design system has been developed to parametrically construct true CAD geometry and link the topology of a structured grid to the geometry. The Adaptive Modeling Language (AML) constitutes the underlying framework that is used to build the geometry and grid topology. Parameterization of the CAD geometry allows the inlet shapes produced by the inviscid design tool to be generated, but also allows a great deal of flexibility to modify the shape to account for three-dimensional viscous effects. By linking the grid topology to the parametric geometry, the GridPro grid generation software can be used efficiently to produce a smooth hexahedral multiblock grid. To demonstrate the new capability, a matrix of inlets were designed by varying four geometry parameters in the inviscid design tool. The goals of the initial design study were to explore inviscid design tool geometry variations with a three-dimensional analysis approach, demonstrate a solution rate which would enable the use of high-fidelity viscous three-dimensional CFD in future design efforts, process the results for important performance parameters, and perform a sample optimization.

The stability of a flexible cantilever in viscous channel flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cisonni, Julien; Lucey, Anthony D.; Elliott, Novak S. J.; Heil, Matthias

2017-05-01

Most studies of the flow-induced flutter instability of a flexible cantilever have assumed inviscid flow because of the high flow speeds and the large scale of the structures encountered in the wide range of applications of this fluid-structure interaction (FSI) system. However, for instance, in the fields of energy harvesting and biomechanics, low flow speeds and small- and micro-scale systems can give relatively low Reynolds numbers so that fluid viscosity needs to be explicitly accounted for to provide reliable predictions of channel-immersed-cantilever stability. In this study, we employ a numerical model coupling the Navier-Stokes equations and a one-dimensional elastic beam model. We conduct a parametric investigation to determine the conditions leading to flutter instability of a slender flexible cantilever immersed in two-dimensional viscous channel flow for Reynolds numbers lower than 1000. The large set of numerical simulations carried out allows predictions of the influence of decreasing Reynolds numbers and of the cantilever confinement on the single-mode neutral stability of the FSI system and on the pre- and post-critical cantilever motion. This model's predictions are also compared to those of a FSI model containing a two-dimensional solid model in order to assess, primarily, the effect of the cantilever slenderness in the simulations. Results show that an increasing contribution of viscosity to the hydrodynamic forces significantly alters the instability boundaries. In general, a decrease in Reynolds number is predicted to produce a stabilisation of the FSI system, which is more pronounced for high fluid-to-solid mass ratios. For particular fluid-to-solid mass ratios, viscous effects can lower the critical velocity and lead to a change in the first unstable structural mode. However, at constant Reynolds number, the effects of viscosity on the system stability are diminished by the confinement of the cantilever, which strengthens the importance of flow inertia.

Preliminary design, analysis, and costing of a dynamic scale model of the NASA space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gronet, M. J.; Pinson, E. D.; Voqui, H. L.; Crawley, E. F.; Everman, M. R.

1987-01-01

The difficulty of testing the next generation of large flexible space structures on the ground places an emphasis on other means for validating predicted on-orbit dynamic behavior. Scale model technology represents one way of verifying analytical predictions with ground test data. This study investigates the preliminary design, scaling and cost trades for a Space Station dynamic scale model. The scaling of nonlinear joint behavior is studied from theoretical and practical points of view. Suspension system interaction trades are conducted for the ISS Dual Keel Configuration and Build-Up Stages suspended in the proposed NASA/LaRC Large Spacecraft Laboratory. Key issues addressed are scaling laws, replication vs. simulation of components, manufacturing, suspension interactions, joint behavior, damping, articulation capability, and cost. These issues are the subject of parametric trades versus the scale model factor. The results of these detailed analyses are used to recommend scale factors for four different scale model options, each with varying degrees of replication. Potential problems in constructing and testing the scale model are identified, and recommendations for further study are outlined.

Parametric versus Cox's model: an illustrative analysis of divorce in Canada.

PubMed

Balakrishnan, T R; Rao, K V; Krotki, K J; Lapierre-adamcyk, E

1988-06-01

Recent demographic literature clearly recognizes the importance of survival modes in the analysis of cross-sectional event histories. Of the various survival models, Cox's (1972) partial parametric model has been very popular due to its simplicity, and readily available computer software for estimation, sometimes at the cost of precision and parsimony of the model. This paper focuses on parametric failure time models for event history analysis such as Weibell, lognormal, loglogistic, and exponential models. The authors also test the goodness of fit of these parametric models versus the Cox's proportional hazards model taking Kaplan-Meier estimate as base. As an illustration, the authors reanalyze the Canadian Fertility Survey data on 1st marriage dissolution with parametric models. Though these parametric model estimates were not very different from each other, there seemed to be a slightly better fit with loglogistic. When 8 covariates were used in the analysis, it was found that the coefficients were similar in the models, and the overall conclusions about the relative risks would not have been different. The findings reveal that in marriage dissolution, the differences according to demographic and socioeconomic characteristics may be far more important than is generally found in many studies. Therefore, one should not treat the population as homogeneous in analyzing survival probabilities of marriages, other than for cursory analysis of overall trends.

Towards an Empirically Based Parametric Explosion Spectral Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ford, S R; Walter, W R; Ruppert, S

2009-08-31

Small underground nuclear explosions need to be confidently detected, identified, and characterized in regions of the world where they have never before been tested. The focus of our work is on the local and regional distances (< 2000 km) and phases (Pn, Pg, Sn, Lg) necessary to see small explosions. We are developing a parametric model of the nuclear explosion seismic source spectrum that is compatible with the earthquake-based geometrical spreading and attenuation models developed using the Magnitude Distance Amplitude Correction (MDAC) techniques (Walter and Taylor, 2002). The explosion parametric model will be particularly important in regions without any priormore » explosion data for calibration. The model is being developed using the available body of seismic data at local and regional distances for past nuclear explosions at foreign and domestic test sites. Parametric modeling is a simple and practical approach for widespread monitoring applications, prior to the capability to carry out fully deterministic modeling. The achievable goal of our parametric model development is to be able to predict observed local and regional distance seismic amplitudes for event identification and yield determination in regions with incomplete or no prior history of underground nuclear testing. The relationship between the parametric equations and the geologic and containment conditions will assist in our physical understanding of the nuclear explosion source.« less

Potential Applications of Modularity to Enable a Deep Space Habitation Capability for Future Human Exploration Beyond Low-Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Matthew A.; Toups, Larry; Smitherman, David

2012-01-01

Evaluating preliminary concepts of a Deep Space Habitat (DSH) enabling long duration crewed exploration of asteroids, the Moon, and Mars is a technically challenging problem. Sufficient habitat volumes and equipment, necessary to ensure crew health and functionality, increase propellant requirements and decrease launch flexibility to deliver multiple elements on a single launch vehicle; both of which increase overall mission cost. Applying modularity in the design of the habitat structures and subsystems can alleviate these difficulties by spreading the build-up of the overall habitation capability across several smaller parts. This allows for a more flexible habitation approach that accommodates various crew mission durations and levels of functionality. This paper provides a technical analysis of how various modular habitation approaches can impact the parametric design of a DSH with potential benefits in mass, packaging volume, and architectural flexibility. This includes a description of the desired long duration habitation capability, the definition of a baseline model for comparison, a small trade study to investigate alternatives, and commentary on potentially advantageous configurations to enable different levels of habitability. The approaches investigated include modular pressure vessel strategies, modular subsystems, and modular manufacturing approaches to habitat structure. The paper also comments upon the possibility of an integrated habitation strategy using modular components to create all short and long duration habitation elements required in the current exploration architectures.

Combined non-parametric and parametric approach for identification of time-variant systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dziedziech, Kajetan; Czop, Piotr; Staszewski, Wieslaw J.; Uhl, Tadeusz

2018-03-01

Identification of systems, structures and machines with variable physical parameters is a challenging task especially when time-varying vibration modes are involved. The paper proposes a new combined, two-step - i.e. non-parametric and parametric - modelling approach in order to determine time-varying vibration modes based on input-output measurements. Single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) vibration modes from multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) non-parametric system representation are extracted in the first step with the use of time-frequency wavelet-based filters. The second step involves time-varying parametric representation of extracted modes with the use of recursive linear autoregressive-moving-average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) models. The combined approach is demonstrated using system identification analysis based on the experimental mass-varying MDOF frame-like structure subjected to random excitation. The results show that the proposed combined method correctly captures the dynamics of the analysed structure, using minimum a priori information on the model.

Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

2011-01-01

Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

Direct Estimation of Kinetic Parametric Images for Dynamic PET

PubMed Central

Wang, Guobao; Qi, Jinyi

2013-01-01

Dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) can monitor spatiotemporal distribution of radiotracer in vivo. The spatiotemporal information can be used to estimate parametric images of radiotracer kinetics that are of physiological and biochemical interests. Direct estimation of parametric images from raw projection data allows accurate noise modeling and has been shown to offer better image quality than conventional indirect methods, which reconstruct a sequence of PET images first and then perform tracer kinetic modeling pixel-by-pixel. Direct reconstruction of parametric images has gained increasing interests with the advances in computing hardware. Many direct reconstruction algorithms have been developed for different kinetic models. In this paper we review the recent progress in the development of direct reconstruction algorithms for parametric image estimation. Algorithms for linear and nonlinear kinetic models are described and their properties are discussed. PMID:24396500

A flexible, interpretable framework for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding.

PubMed

Dorie, Vincent; Harada, Masataka; Carnegie, Nicole Bohme; Hill, Jennifer

2016-09-10

When estimating causal effects, unmeasured confounding and model misspecification are both potential sources of bias. We propose a method to simultaneously address both issues in the form of a semi-parametric sensitivity analysis. In particular, our approach incorporates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees into a two-parameter sensitivity analysis strategy that assesses sensitivity of posterior distributions of treatment effects to choices of sensitivity parameters. This results in an easily interpretable framework for testing for the impact of an unmeasured confounder that also limits the number of modeling assumptions. We evaluate our approach in a large-scale simulation setting and with high blood pressure data taken from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The model is implemented as open-source software, integrated into the treatSens package for the R statistical programming language. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of the plasma environment on atomic structure using an ion-sphere model

DOE PAGES

Belkhiri, Madeny Jean; Fontes, Christopher John; Poirier, Michel

2015-09-03

Plasma environment effects on atomic structure are analyzed using various atomic structure codes. To monitor the effect of high free-electron density or low temperatures, Fermi-Dirac and Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics are compared. After a discussion of the implementation of the Fermi-Dirac approach within the ion-sphere model, several applications are considered. In order to check the consistency of the modifications brought here to extant codes, calculations have been performed using the Los Alamos Cowan Atomic Structure (cats) code in its Hartree-Fock or Hartree-Fock-Slater form and the parametric potential Flexible Atomic Code (fac). The ground-state energy shifts due to the plasma effects for themore » six most ionized aluminum ions have been calculated using the fac and cats codes and fairly agree. For the intercombination resonance line in Fe 22+, the plasma effect within the uniform electron gas model results in a positive shift that agrees with the MCDF value of B. Saha et al.« less

Influence of the plasma environment on atomic structure using an ion-sphere model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belkhiri, Madeny Jean; Fontes, Christopher John; Poirier, Michel

Plasma environment effects on atomic structure are analyzed using various atomic structure codes. To monitor the effect of high free-electron density or low temperatures, Fermi-Dirac and Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics are compared. After a discussion of the implementation of the Fermi-Dirac approach within the ion-sphere model, several applications are considered. In order to check the consistency of the modifications brought here to extant codes, calculations have been performed using the Los Alamos Cowan Atomic Structure (cats) code in its Hartree-Fock or Hartree-Fock-Slater form and the parametric potential Flexible Atomic Code (fac). The ground-state energy shifts due to the plasma effects for themore » six most ionized aluminum ions have been calculated using the fac and cats codes and fairly agree. For the intercombination resonance line in Fe 22+, the plasma effect within the uniform electron gas model results in a positive shift that agrees with the MCDF value of B. Saha et al.« less

Semantic Interaction for Sensemaking: Inferring Analytical Reasoning for Model Steering.

PubMed

Endert, A; Fiaux, P; North, C

2012-12-01

Visual analytic tools aim to support the cognitively demanding task of sensemaking. Their success often depends on the ability to leverage capabilities of mathematical models, visualization, and human intuition through flexible, usable, and expressive interactions. Spatially clustering data is one effective metaphor for users to explore similarity and relationships between information, adjusting the weighting of dimensions or characteristics of the dataset to observe the change in the spatial layout. Semantic interaction is an approach to user interaction in such spatializations that couples these parametric modifications of the clustering model with users' analytic operations on the data (e.g., direct document movement in the spatialization, highlighting text, search, etc.). In this paper, we present results of a user study exploring the ability of semantic interaction in a visual analytic prototype, ForceSPIRE, to support sensemaking. We found that semantic interaction captures the analytical reasoning of the user through keyword weighting, and aids the user in co-creating a spatialization based on the user's reasoning and intuition.

Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline and Artificial Neural Network to Simulate Urbanization in Mumbai, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadlou, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Tayyebi, A.; Shafizadeh-Moghadam, H.

2015-12-01

Land use change (LUC) models used for modelling urban growth are different in structure and performance. Local models divide the data into separate subsets and fit distinct models on each of the subsets. Non-parametric models are data driven and usually do not have a fixed model structure or model structure is unknown before the modelling process. On the other hand, global models perform modelling using all the available data. In addition, parametric models have a fixed structure before the modelling process and they are model driven. Since few studies have compared local non-parametric models with global parametric models, this study compares a local non-parametric model called multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and a global parametric model called artificial neural network (ANN) to simulate urbanization in Mumbai, India. Both models determine the relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) to compare the power of the both models for simulating urbanization. Landsat images of 1991 (TM) and 2010 (ETM+) were used for modelling the urbanization process. The drivers considered for urbanization in this area were distance to urban areas, urban density, distance to roads, distance to water, distance to forest, distance to railway, distance to central business district, number of agricultural cells in a 7 by 7 neighbourhoods, and slope in 1991. The results showed that the area under the ROC curve for MARS and ANN was 94.77% and 95.36%, respectively. Thus, ANN performed slightly better than MARS to simulate urban areas in Mumbai, India.

The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback.

PubMed

Webb, Mark J; Lock, Adrian P; Bretherton, Christopher S; Bony, Sandrine; Cole, Jason N S; Idelkadi, Abderrahmane; Kang, Sarah M; Koshiro, Tsuyoshi; Kawai, Hideaki; Ogura, Tomoo; Roehrig, Romain; Shin, Yechul; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Sherwood, Steven C; Vial, Jessica; Watanabe, Masahiro; Woelfle, Matthew D; Zhao, Ming

2015-11-13

We investigate the sensitivity of cloud feedbacks to the use of convective parametrizations by repeating the CMIP5/CFMIP-2 AMIP/AMIP + 4K uniform sea surface temperature perturbation experiments with 10 climate models which have had their convective parametrizations turned off. Previous studies have suggested that differences between parametrized convection schemes are a leading source of inter-model spread in cloud feedbacks. We find however that 'ConvOff' models with convection switched off have a similar overall range of cloud feedbacks compared with the standard configurations. Furthermore, applying a simple bias correction method to allow for differences in present-day global cloud radiative effects substantially reduces the differences between the cloud feedbacks with and without parametrized convection in the individual models. We conclude that, while parametrized convection influences the strength of the cloud feedbacks substantially in some models, other processes must also contribute substantially to the overall inter-model spread. The positive shortwave cloud feedbacks seen in the models in subtropical regimes associated with shallow clouds are still present in the ConvOff experiments. Inter-model spread in shortwave cloud feedback increases slightly in regimes associated with trade cumulus in the ConvOff experiments but is quite similar in the most stable subtropical regimes associated with stratocumulus clouds. Inter-model spread in longwave cloud feedbacks in strongly precipitating regions of the tropics is substantially reduced in the ConvOff experiments however, indicating a considerable local contribution from differences in the details of convective parametrizations. In both standard and ConvOff experiments, models with less mid-level cloud and less moist static energy near the top of the boundary layer tend to have more positive tropical cloud feedbacks. The role of non-convective processes in contributing to inter-model spread in cloud feedback is discussed. © 2015 The Authors.

The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback

PubMed Central

Webb, Mark J.; Lock, Adrian P.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Bony, Sandrine; Cole, Jason N. S.; Idelkadi, Abderrahmane; Kang, Sarah M.; Koshiro, Tsuyoshi; Kawai, Hideaki; Ogura, Tomoo; Roehrig, Romain; Shin, Yechul; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Sherwood, Steven C.; Vial, Jessica; Watanabe, Masahiro; Woelfle, Matthew D.; Zhao, Ming

2015-01-01

We investigate the sensitivity of cloud feedbacks to the use of convective parametrizations by repeating the CMIP5/CFMIP-2 AMIP/AMIP + 4K uniform sea surface temperature perturbation experiments with 10 climate models which have had their convective parametrizations turned off. Previous studies have suggested that differences between parametrized convection schemes are a leading source of inter-model spread in cloud feedbacks. We find however that ‘ConvOff’ models with convection switched off have a similar overall range of cloud feedbacks compared with the standard configurations. Furthermore, applying a simple bias correction method to allow for differences in present-day global cloud radiative effects substantially reduces the differences between the cloud feedbacks with and without parametrized convection in the individual models. We conclude that, while parametrized convection influences the strength of the cloud feedbacks substantially in some models, other processes must also contribute substantially to the overall inter-model spread. The positive shortwave cloud feedbacks seen in the models in subtropical regimes associated with shallow clouds are still present in the ConvOff experiments. Inter-model spread in shortwave cloud feedback increases slightly in regimes associated with trade cumulus in the ConvOff experiments but is quite similar in the most stable subtropical regimes associated with stratocumulus clouds. Inter-model spread in longwave cloud feedbacks in strongly precipitating regions of the tropics is substantially reduced in the ConvOff experiments however, indicating a considerable local contribution from differences in the details of convective parametrizations. In both standard and ConvOff experiments, models with less mid-level cloud and less moist static energy near the top of the boundary layer tend to have more positive tropical cloud feedbacks. The role of non-convective processes in contributing to inter-model spread in cloud feedback is discussed. PMID:26438278

Aircraft conceptual design - an adaptable parametric sizing methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coleman, Gary John, Jr.

Aerospace is a maturing industry with successful and refined baselines which work well for traditional baseline missions, markets and technologies. However, when new markets (space tourism) or new constrains (environmental) or new technologies (composite, natural laminar flow) emerge, the conventional solution is not necessarily best for the new situation. Which begs the question "how does a design team quickly screen and compare novel solutions to conventional solutions for new aerospace challenges?" The answer is rapid and flexible conceptual design Parametric Sizing. In the product design life-cycle, parametric sizing is the first step in screening the total vehicle in terms of mission, configuration and technology to quickly assess first order design and mission sensitivities. During this phase, various missions and technologies are assessed. During this phase, the designer is identifying design solutions of concepts and configurations to meet combinations of mission and technology. This research undertaking contributes the state-of-the-art in aircraft parametric sizing through (1) development of a dedicated conceptual design process and disciplinary methods library, (2) development of a novel and robust parametric sizing process based on 'best-practice' approaches found in the process and disciplinary methods library, and (3) application of the parametric sizing process to a variety of design missions (transonic, supersonic and hypersonic transports), different configurations (tail-aft, blended wing body, strut-braced wing, hypersonic blended bodies, etc.), and different technologies (composite, natural laminar flow, thrust vectored control, etc.), in order to demonstrate the robustness of the methodology and unearth first-order design sensitivities to current and future aerospace design problems. This research undertaking demonstrates the importance of this early design step in selecting the correct combination of mission, technologies and configuration to meet current aerospace challenges. Overarching goal is to avoid the reoccurring situation of optimizing an already ill-fated solution.

Experimental determination of frequency response function estimates for flexible joint industrial manipulators with serial kinematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saupe, Florian; Knoblach, Andreas

2015-02-01

Two different approaches for the determination of frequency response functions (FRFs) are used for the non-parametric closed loop identification of a flexible joint industrial manipulator with serial kinematics. The two applied experiment designs are based on low power multisine and high power chirp excitations. The main challenge is to eliminate disturbances of the FRF estimates caused by the numerous nonlinearities of the robot. For the experiment design based on chirp excitations, a simple iterative procedure is proposed which allows exploiting the good crest factor of chirp signals in a closed loop setup. An interesting synergy of the two approaches, beyond validation purposes, is pointed out.

Steady-State Dynamic Behavior of a Flexible Rotor With Auxiliary Support From a Clearance Bearing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xie, Huajun; Flowers, George T.; Feng, Li; Lawrence, Charles T.

1996-01-01

This paper investigates the steady-state responses of a rotor system supported by auxiliary bearings in which there is a clearance between the rotor and the inner race of the bearing. A simulation model based upon the rotor of a production jet engine is developed and its steady-state behavior is explored over a wide range of operating conditions for various parametric configurations. Specifically, the influence of rotor imbalance, clearance, support stiffness and damping is studied. Bifurcation diagrams are used as a tool to examine the dynamic behavior of this system as a function of the afore mentioned parameters. The harmonic balance method is also employed for synchronous response cases. The observed dynamical responses is discussed and some insights into the behavior of such systems are presented.

Synchronous dynamics of a coupled shaft/bearing/housing system with auxiliary support from a clearance bearing: Analysis and experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawen, James L., Jr.; Flowers, George T.

1995-01-01

This study examines the response of a flexible rotor supported by load sharing between linear bearings and an auxiliary clearance bearing. The objective is to develop a better understanding of the dynamical behavior of a magnetic bearing supported rotor system interacting with auxiliary bearings during a critical operating condition. Of particular interest is the effect of coupling between the bearing/housing and shaft vibration on the rotordynamical responses. A simulation model is developed and a number of studies are performed for various parametric configurations. An experimental investigation is also conducted to compare and verify the rotordynamic behavior predicted by the simulation studies. A strategy for reducing synchronous shaft vibration through appropriate design of coupled shaft/bearing/housing vibration modes is identified.

FESetup: Automating Setup for Alchemical Free Energy Simulations.

PubMed

Loeffler, Hannes H; Michel, Julien; Woods, Christopher

2015-12-28

FESetup is a new pipeline tool which can be used flexibly within larger workflows. The tool aims to support fast and easy setup of alchemical free energy simulations for molecular simulation packages such as AMBER, GROMACS, Sire, or NAMD. Post-processing methods like MM-PBSA and LIE can be set up as well. Ligands are automatically parametrized with AM1-BCC, and atom mappings for a single topology description are computed with a maximum common substructure search (MCSS) algorithm. An abstract molecular dynamics (MD) engine can be used for equilibration prior to free energy setup or standalone. Currently, all modern AMBER force fields are supported. Ease of use, robustness of the code, and automation where it is feasible are the main development goals. The project follows an open development model, and we welcome contributions.

Towards a versatile active wavelength converter for all-optical networks based on quasi-phase matched intra-cavity difference-frequency generation.

PubMed

Torregrosa, Adrián J; Maestre, Haroldo; Capmany, Juan

2013-11-18

The availability of reconfigurable all-optical wavelength converters for an efficient and flexible use of optical resources in WDM (wavelength division multiplexing) networks is still lacking at present. We propose and report preliminary results on a versatile active technique for multiple and tunable wavelength conversions in the 1500-1700 nm spectral region. The technique is based on combining broadband quasi-phase matched intra-cavity parametric single-pass difference-frequency generation close to degeneracy in a diode-pumped tunable laser. A periodically poled stoichiometric lithium tantalate crystal is used as the nonlinear medium, with a parametric pump wave generated in a continuous-wave self-injection locked Cr3+:LiCAF tunable laser operating at around 800 nm.

Electron and ion acceleration in relativistic shocks with applications to GRB afterglows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, Donald C.; Ellison, Donald C.; Bykov, Andrei M.; Lee, Shiu-Hang

2015-09-01

We have modelled the simultaneous first-order Fermi shock acceleration of protons, electrons, and helium nuclei by relativistic shocks. By parametrizing the particle diffusion, our steady-state Monte Carlo simulation allows us to follow particles from particle injection at non-relativistic thermal energies to above PeV energies, including the non-linear smoothing of the shock structure due to cosmic ray (CR) backpressure. We observe the mass-to-charge (A/Z) enhancement effect believed to occur in efficient Fermi acceleration in non-relativistic shocks and we parametrize the transfer of ion energy to electrons seen in particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. For a given set of environmental and model parameters, the Monte Carlo simulation determines the absolute normalization of the particle distributions and the resulting synchrotron, inverse Compton, and pion-decay emission in a largely self-consistent manner. The simulation is flexible and can be readily used with a wide range of parameters typical of γ-ray burst (GRB) afterglows. We describe some preliminary results for photon emission from shocks of different Lorentz factors and outline how the Monte Carlo simulation can be generalized and coupled to hydrodynamic simulations of GRB blast waves. We assume Bohm diffusion for simplicity but emphasize that the non-linear effects we describe stem mainly from an extended shock precursor where higher energy particles diffuse further upstream. Quantitative differences will occur with different diffusion models, particularly for the maximum CR energy and photon emission, but these non-linear effects should be qualitatively similar as long as the scattering mean-free path is an increasing function of momentum.

Adapting Active Shape Models for 3D segmentation of tubular structures in medical images.

PubMed

de Bruijne, Marleen; van Ginneken, Bram; Viergever, Max A; Niessen, Wiro J

2003-07-01

Active Shape Models (ASM) have proven to be an effective approach for image segmentation. In some applications, however, the linear model of gray level appearance around a contour that is used in ASM is not sufficient for accurate boundary localization. Furthermore, the statistical shape model may be too restricted if the training set is limited. This paper describes modifications to both the shape and the appearance model of the original ASM formulation. Shape model flexibility is increased, for tubular objects, by modeling the axis deformation independent of the cross-sectional deformation, and by adding supplementary cylindrical deformation modes. Furthermore, a novel appearance modeling scheme that effectively deals with a highly varying background is developed. In contrast with the conventional ASM approach, the new appearance model is trained on both boundary and non-boundary points, and the probability that a given point belongs to the boundary is estimated non-parametrically. The methods are evaluated on the complex task of segmenting thrombus in abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). Shape approximation errors were successfully reduced using the two shape model extensions. Segmentation using the new appearance model significantly outperformed the original ASM scheme; average volume errors are 5.1% and 45% respectively.

A Bayesian Network Based Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Identifying Dominant Processes in a Multi-physics Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, H.; Chen, X.; Ye, M.; Song, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2016-12-01

Sensitivity analysis has been an important tool in groundwater modeling to identify the influential parameters. Among various sensitivity analysis methods, the variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity for its model independence characteristic and capability of providing accurate sensitivity measurements. However, the conventional variance-based method only considers uncertainty contribution of single model parameters. In this research, we extended the variance-based method to consider more uncertainty sources and developed a new framework to allow flexible combinations of different uncertainty components. We decompose the uncertainty sources into a hierarchical three-layer structure: scenario, model and parametric. Furthermore, each layer of uncertainty source is capable of containing multiple components. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis framework was then constructed following this three-layer structure using Bayesian network. Different uncertainty components are represented as uncertain nodes in this network. Through the framework, variance-based sensitivity analysis can be implemented with great flexibility of using different grouping strategies for uncertainty components. The variance-based sensitivity analysis thus is improved to be able to investigate the importance of an extended range of uncertainty sources: scenario, model, and other different combinations of uncertainty components which can represent certain key model system processes (e.g., groundwater recharge process, flow reactive transport process). For test and demonstration purposes, the developed methodology was implemented into a test case of real-world groundwater reactive transport modeling with various uncertainty sources. The results demonstrate that the new sensitivity analysis method is able to estimate accurate importance measurements for any uncertainty sources which were formed by different combinations of uncertainty components. The new methodology can provide useful information for environmental management and decision-makers to formulate policies and strategies.

Application of artificial neural network to fMRI regression analysis.

PubMed

Misaki, Masaya; Miyauchi, Satoru

2006-01-15

We used an artificial neural network (ANN) to detect correlations between event sequences and fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging) signals. The layered feed-forward neural network, given a series of events as inputs and the fMRI signal as a supervised signal, performed a non-linear regression analysis. This type of ANN is capable of approximating any continuous function, and thus this analysis method can detect any fMRI signals that correlated with corresponding events. Because of the flexible nature of ANNs, fitting to autocorrelation noise is a problem in fMRI analyses. We avoided this problem by using cross-validation and an early stopping procedure. The results showed that the ANN could detect various responses with different time courses. The simulation analysis also indicated an additional advantage of ANN over non-parametric methods in detecting parametrically modulated responses, i.e., it can detect various types of parametric modulations without a priori assumptions. The ANN regression analysis is therefore beneficial for exploratory fMRI analyses in detecting continuous changes in responses modulated by changes in input values.

Pixel-based parametric source depth map for Cerenkov luminescence imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altabella, L.; Boschi, F.; Spinelli, A. E.

2016-01-01

Optical tomography represents a challenging problem in optical imaging because of the intrinsically ill-posed inverse problem due to photon diffusion. Cerenkov luminescence tomography (CLT) for optical photons produced in tissues by several radionuclides (i.e.: 32P, 18F, 90Y), has been investigated using both 3D multispectral approach and multiviews methods. Difficult in convergence of 3D algorithms can discourage to use this technique to have information of depth and intensity of source. For these reasons, we developed a faster 2D corrected approach based on multispectral acquisitions, to obtain source depth and its intensity using a pixel-based fitting of source intensity. Monte Carlo simulations and experimental data were used to develop and validate the method to obtain the parametric map of source depth. With this approach we obtain parametric source depth maps with a precision between 3% and 7% for MC simulation and 5-6% for experimental data. Using this method we are able to obtain reliable information about the source depth of Cerenkov luminescence with a simple and flexible procedure.

Parametric Mass Modeling for Mars Entry, Descent and Landing System Analysis Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samareh, Jamshid A.; Komar, D. R.

2011-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the parametric mass models used for the Entry, Descent, and Landing Systems Analysis study conducted by NASA in FY2009-2010. The study examined eight unique exploration class architectures that included elements such as a rigid mid-L/D aeroshell, a lifting hypersonic inflatable decelerator, a drag supersonic inflatable decelerator, a lifting supersonic inflatable decelerator implemented with a skirt, and subsonic/supersonic retro-propulsion. Parametric models used in this study relate the component mass to vehicle dimensions and mission key environmental parameters such as maximum deceleration and total heat load. The use of a parametric mass model allows the simultaneous optimization of trajectory and mass sizing parameters.

Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip

2010-01-01

A study is in-process to develop a multivariable parametric cost model for space telescopes. Cost and engineering parametric data has been collected on 30 different space telescopes. Statistical correlations have been developed between 19 variables of 59 variables sampled. Single Variable and Multi-Variable Cost Estimating Relationships have been developed. Results are being published.

Probing the dynamics of dark energy with divergence-free parametrizations: A global fit study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hong; Zhang, Xin

2011-09-01

The CPL parametrization is very important for investigating the property of dark energy with observational data. However, the CPL parametrization only respects the past evolution of dark energy but does not care about the future evolution of dark energy, since w ( z ) diverges in the distant future. In a recent paper [J.Z. Ma, X. Zhang, Phys. Lett. B 699 (2011) 233], a robust, novel parametrization for dark energy, w ( z ) = w + w ( l n ( 2 + z ) 1 + z - l n 2 ) , has been proposed, successfully avoiding the future divergence problem in the CPL parametrization. On the other hand, an oscillating parametrization (motivated by an oscillating quintom model) can also avoid the future divergence problem. In this Letter, we use the two divergence-free parametrizations to probe the dynamics of dark energy in the whole evolutionary history. In light of the data from 7-year WMAP temperature and polarization power spectra, matter power spectrum of SDSS DR7, and SN Ia Union2 sample, we perform a full Markov Chain Monte Carlo exploration for the two dynamical dark energy models. We find that the best-fit dark energy model is a quintom model with the EOS across -1 during the evolution. However, though the quintom model is more favored, we find that the cosmological constant still cannot be excluded.

Modeling personnel turnover in the parametric organization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, Edwin B.

1991-01-01

A model is developed for simulating the dynamics of a newly formed organization, credible during all phases of organizational development. The model development process is broken down into the activities of determining the tasks required for parametric cost analysis (PCA), determining the skills required for each PCA task, determining the skills available in the applicant marketplace, determining the structure of the model, implementing the model, and testing it. The model, parameterized by the likelihood of job function transition, has demonstrated by the capability to represent the transition of personnel across functional boundaries within a parametric organization using a linear dynamical system, and the ability to predict required staffing profiles to meet functional needs at the desired time. The model can be extended by revisions of the state and transition structure to provide refinements in functional definition for the parametric and extended organization.

From 2D to 3D: Construction of a 3D Parametric Model for Detection of Dental Roots Shape and Position from a Panoramic Radiograph—A Preliminary Report

PubMed Central

Mazzotta, Laura; Cozzani, Mauro; Mutinelli, Sabrina; Castaldo, Attilio; Silvestrini-Biavati, Armando

2013-01-01

Objectives. To build a 3D parametric model to detect shape and volume of dental roots, from a panoramic radiograph (PAN) of the patient. Materials and Methods. A PAN and a cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) of a patient were acquired. For each tooth, various parameters were considered (coronal and root lengths and widths): these were measured from the CBCT and from the PAN. Measures were compared to evaluate the accuracy level of PAN measurements. By using a CAD software, parametric models of an incisor and of a molar were constructed employing B-spline curves and free-form surfaces. PAN measures of teeth 2.1 and 3.6 were assigned to the parametric models; the same two teeth were segmented from CBCT. The two models were superimposed to assess the accuracy of the parametric model. Results. PAN measures resulted to be accurate and comparable with all other measurements. From model superimposition the maximum error resulted was 1.1 mm on the incisor crown and 2 mm on the molar furcation. Conclusion. This study shows that it is possible to build a 3D parametric model starting from 2D information with a clinically valid accuracy level. This can ultimately lead to a crown-root movement simulation. PMID:23554814

Multi-flexible-body analysis for application to wind turbine control design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghoon

The objective of the present research is to build a theoretical and computational framework for the aeroelastic analysis of flexible rotating systems, more specifically with special application to a wind turbine control design. The methodology is based on the integration of Kane's approach for the analysis of the multi-rigid-body subsystem and a mixed finite element method for the analysis of the flexible-body subsystem. The combined analysis is then strongly coupled with an aerodynamic model based on Blade Element Momentum theory for inflow model. The unified framework from the analysis of subsystems is represented as, in a symbolic manner, a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations with time-variant, periodic coefficients, which describe the aeroelastic behavior of whole system. The framework can be directly applied to control design due to its symbolic characteristics. The solution procedures for the equations are presented for the study of nonlinear simulation, periodic steady-state solution, and Floquet stability of the linearized system about the steady-state solution. Finally the linear periodic system equation can be obtained with both system and control matrices as explicit functions of time, which can be directly applicable to control design. The structural model is validated by comparison of its results with those from software, some of which is commercial. The stability of the linearized system about periodic steady-state solution is different from that obtained about a constant steady-state solution, which have been conventional in the field of wind turbine dynamics. Parametric studies are performed on a wind turbine model with various pitch angles, precone angles, and rotor speeds. Combined with composite material, their effects on wind turbine aeroelastic stability are investigated. Finally it is suggested that the aeroelastic stability analysis and control design for the whole system is crucial for the design of wind turbines, and the present research breaks new ground in the ability to treat the issue.

Comparison of thawing and freezing dark energy parametrizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantazis, G.; Nesseris, S.; Perivolaropoulos, L.

2016-05-01

Dark energy equation of state w (z ) parametrizations with two parameters and given monotonicity are generically either convex or concave functions. This makes them suitable for fitting either freezing or thawing quintessence models but not both simultaneously. Fitting a data set based on a freezing model with an unsuitable (concave when increasing) w (z ) parametrization [like Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL)] can lead to significant misleading features like crossing of the phantom divide line, incorrect w (z =0 ), incorrect slope, etc., that are not present in the underlying cosmological model. To demonstrate this fact we generate scattered cosmological data at both the level of w (z ) and the luminosity distance DL(z ) based on either thawing or freezing quintessence models and fit them using parametrizations of convex and of concave type. We then compare statistically significant features of the best fit w (z ) with actual features of the underlying model. We thus verify that the use of unsuitable parametrizations can lead to misleading conclusions. In order to avoid these problems it is important to either use both convex and concave parametrizations and select the one with the best χ2 or use principal component analysis thus splitting the redshift range into independent bins. In the latter case, however, significant information about the slope of w (z ) at high redshifts is lost. Finally, we propose a new family of parametrizations w (z )=w0+wa(z/1 +z )n which generalizes the CPL and interpolates between thawing and freezing parametrizations as the parameter n increases to values larger than 1.

Flexible data-management system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pelouch, J. J., Jr.

1977-01-01

Combined ASRDI Data-Management and Analysis Technique (CADMAT) is system of computer programs and procedures that can be used to conduct data-management tasks. System was developed specifically for use by scientists and engineers who are confronted with management and analysis of large quantities of data organized into records of events and parametric fields. CADMAT is particularly useful when data are continually accumulated, such as when the need of retrieval and analysis is ongoing.

Parametric study of two planar high power flexible solar array concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garba, J. A.; Kudija, D. A.; Zeldin, B.; Costogue, E. N.

1978-01-01

The design parameters examined were: frequency, aspect ratio, packaging constraints, and array blanket flatness. Specific power-to-mass ratios for both solar arrays as a function of array frequency and array width were developed and plotted. Summaries of the baseline design data, developed equations, the computer program operation, plots of the parameters, and the process for using the information as a design manual are presented.

Parametric models of reflectance spectra for dyed fabrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aiken, Daniel C.; Ramsey, Scott; Mayo, Troy; Lambrakos, Samuel G.; Peak, Joseph

2016-05-01

This study examines parametric modeling of NIR reflectivity spectra for dyed fabrics, which provides for both their inverse and direct modeling. The dye considered for prototype analysis is triarylamine dye. The fabrics considered are camouflage textiles characterized by color variations. The results of this study provide validation of the constructed parametric models, within reasonable error tolerances for practical applications, including NIR spectral characteristics in camouflage textiles, for purposes of simulating NIR spectra corresponding to various dye concentrations in host fabrics, and potentially to mixtures of dyes.

Bayesian nonparametric regression with varying residual density

PubMed Central

Pati, Debdeep; Dunson, David B.

2013-01-01

We consider the problem of robust Bayesian inference on the mean regression function allowing the residual density to change flexibly with predictors. The proposed class of models is based on a Gaussian process prior for the mean regression function and mixtures of Gaussians for the collection of residual densities indexed by predictors. Initially considering the homoscedastic case, we propose priors for the residual density based on probit stick-breaking (PSB) scale mixtures and symmetrized PSB (sPSB) location-scale mixtures. Both priors restrict the residual density to be symmetric about zero, with the sPSB prior more flexible in allowing multimodal densities. We provide sufficient conditions to ensure strong posterior consistency in estimating the regression function under the sPSB prior, generalizing existing theory focused on parametric residual distributions. The PSB and sPSB priors are generalized to allow residual densities to change nonparametrically with predictors through incorporating Gaussian processes in the stick-breaking components. This leads to a robust Bayesian regression procedure that automatically down-weights outliers and influential observations in a locally-adaptive manner. Posterior computation relies on an efficient data augmentation exact block Gibbs sampler. The methods are illustrated using simulated and real data applications. PMID:24465053

Mapping the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parametrization onto physical dark energy Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherrer, Robert J.

2015-08-01

We examine the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization, in the context of quintessence and barotropic dark energy models, to determine the subset of such models to which it can provide a good fit. The CPL parametrization gives the equation of state parameter w for the dark energy as a linear function of the scale factor a , namely w =w0+wa(1 -a ). In the case of quintessence models, we find that over most of the w0, wa parameter space the CPL parametrization maps onto a fairly narrow form of behavior for the potential V (ϕ ), while a one-dimensional subset of parameter space, for which wa=κ (1 +w0) , with κ constant, corresponds to a wide range of functional forms for V (ϕ ). For barotropic models, we show that the functional dependence of the pressure on the density, up to a multiplicative constant, depends only on wi=wa+w0 and not on w0 and wa separately. Our results suggest that the CPL parametrization may not be optimal for testing either type of model.

Model risk for European-style stock index options.

PubMed

Gençay, Ramazan; Gibson, Rajna

2007-01-01

In empirical modeling, there have been two strands for pricing in the options literature, namely the parametric and nonparametric models. Often, the support for the nonparametric methods is based on a benchmark such as the Black-Scholes (BS) model with constant volatility. In this paper, we study the stochastic volatility (SV) and stochastic volatility random jump (SVJ) models as parametric benchmarks against feedforward neural network (FNN) models, a class of neural network models. Our choice for FNN models is due to their well-studied universal approximation properties of an unknown function and its partial derivatives. Since the partial derivatives of an option pricing formula are risk pricing tools, an accurate estimation of the unknown option pricing function is essential for pricing and hedging. Our findings indicate that FNN models offer themselves as robust option pricing tools, over their sophisticated parametric counterparts in predictive settings. There are two routes to explain the superiority of FNN models over the parametric models in forecast settings. These are nonnormality of return distributions and adaptive learning.

Generalized semiparametric varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Li

In this dissertation, we investigate the generalized semiparametric varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data that can flexibly model three types of covariate effects: time-constant effects, time-varying effects, and covariate-varying effects, i.e., the covariate effects that depend on other possibly time-dependent exposure variables. First, we consider the model that assumes the time-varying effects are unspecified functions of time while the covariate-varying effects are parametric functions of an exposure variable specified up to a finite number of unknown parameters. The estimation procedures are developed using multivariate local linear smoothing and generalized weighted least squares estimation techniques. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. The simulation studies show that the proposed methods have satisfactory finite sample performance. ACTG 244 clinical trial of HIV infected patients are applied to examine the effects of antiretroviral treatment switching before and after HIV developing the 215-mutation. Our analysis shows benefit of treatment switching before developing the 215-mutation. The proposed methods are also applied to the STEP study with MITT cases showing that they have broad applications in medical research.

True Concurrent Thermal Engineering Integrating CAD Model Building with Finite Element and Finite Difference Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Panczak, Tim; Ring, Steve; Welch, Mark

1999-01-01

Thermal engineering has long been left out of the concurrent engineering environment dominated by CAD (computer aided design) and FEM (finite element method) software. Current tools attempt to force the thermal design process into an environment primarily created to support structural analysis, which results in inappropriate thermal models. As a result, many thermal engineers either build models "by hand" or use geometric user interfaces that are separate from and have little useful connection, if any, to CAD and FEM systems. This paper describes the development of a new thermal design environment called the Thermal Desktop. This system, while fully integrated into a neutral, low cost CAD system, and which utilizes both FEM and FD methods, does not compromise the needs of the thermal engineer. Rather, the features needed for concurrent thermal analysis are specifically addressed by combining traditional parametric surface based radiation and FD based conduction modeling with CAD and FEM methods. The use of flexible and familiar temperature solvers such as SINDA/FLUINT (Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer/Fluid Integrator) is retained.

The chi-square test of independence.

PubMed

McHugh, Mary L

2013-01-01

The Chi-square statistic is a non-parametric (distribution free) tool designed to analyze group differences when the dependent variable is measured at a nominal level. Like all non-parametric statistics, the Chi-square is robust with respect to the distribution of the data. Specifically, it does not require equality of variances among the study groups or homoscedasticity in the data. It permits evaluation of both dichotomous independent variables, and of multiple group studies. Unlike many other non-parametric and some parametric statistics, the calculations needed to compute the Chi-square provide considerable information about how each of the groups performed in the study. This richness of detail allows the researcher to understand the results and thus to derive more detailed information from this statistic than from many others. The Chi-square is a significance statistic, and should be followed with a strength statistic. The Cramer's V is the most common strength test used to test the data when a significant Chi-square result has been obtained. Advantages of the Chi-square include its robustness with respect to distribution of the data, its ease of computation, the detailed information that can be derived from the test, its use in studies for which parametric assumptions cannot be met, and its flexibility in handling data from both two group and multiple group studies. Limitations include its sample size requirements, difficulty of interpretation when there are large numbers of categories (20 or more) in the independent or dependent variables, and tendency of the Cramer's V to produce relative low correlation measures, even for highly significant results.

Model Comparison of Bayesian Semiparametric and Parametric Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Xia, Ye-Mao; Pan, Jun-Hao; Lee, Sik-Yum

2011-01-01

Structural equation models have wide applications. One of the most important issues in analyzing structural equation models is model comparison. This article proposes a Bayesian model comparison statistic, namely the "L[subscript nu]"-measure for both semiparametric and parametric structural equation models. For illustration purposes, we consider…

Advances in optical structure systems; Proceedings of the Meeting, Orlando, FL, Apr. 16-19, 1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breakwell, John; Genberg, Victor L.; Krumweide, Gary C.

Various papers on advances in optical structure systems are presented. Individual topics addressed include: beam pathlength optimization, thermal stress in glass/metal bond with PR 1578 adhesive, structural and optical properties for typical solid mirror shapes, parametric study of spinning polygon mirror deformations, simulation of small structures-optics-controls system, spatial PSDs of optical structures due to random vibration, mountings for a four-meter glass mirror, fast-steering mirrors in optical control systems, adaptive state estimation for control of flexible structures, surface control techniques for large segmented mirrors, two-time-scale control designs for large flexible structures, closed-loop dynamic shape control of a flexible beam. Also discussed are: inertially referenced pointing for body-fixed payloads, sensor blending line-of-sight stabilization, controls/optics/structures simulation development, transfer functions for piezoelectric control of a flexible beam, active control experiments for large-optics vibration alleviation, composite structures for a large-optical test bed, graphite/epoxy composite mirror for beam-steering applications, composite structures for optical-mirror applications, thin carbon-fiber prepregs for dimensionally critical structures.

Seismic response of elevated rectangular water tanks considering soil structure interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visuvasam, J.; Simon, J.; Packiaraj, J. S.; Agarwal, R.; Goyal, L.; Dhingra, V.

2017-11-01

The overhead staged water tanks are susceptible for high lateral forces during earthquakes. Due to which, the failure of beam-columns joints, framing elements and toppling of tanks arise. To avoid such failures, they are analyzed and designed for lateral forced induced by devastating earthquakes assuming the base of the structures are fixed and considering functional needs, response reduction, soil types and severity of ground shaking. In this paper, the flexible base was provided as spring stiffness in order to consider the effect of soil properties on the seismic behaviour of water tanks. A linear time history earthquake analysis was performed using SAP2000. Parametric studies have been carried out based on various types of soils such as soft, medium and hard. The soil stiffness values highly influence the time period and base shear of the structure. The ratios of time period of flexible to fixed base and base shear of flexible to fixed base were observed against capacities of water tank and the overall height of the system. The both responses are found to be increased as the flexibility of soil medium decreases

A parallel-architecture parametric equalizer for air-coupled capacitive ultrasonic transducers.

PubMed

McSweeney, Sean G; Wright, William M D

2012-01-01

Parametric equalization is rarely applied to ultrasonic transducer systems, for which it could be used on either the transmitter or the receiver to achieve a desired response. An optimized equalizer with both bump and cut capabilities would be advantageous for ultrasonic systems in applications in which variations in the transducer performance or the properties of the propagating medium produce a less-than-desirable signal. Compensation for non-ideal transducer response could be achieved using equalization on a device-by-device basis. Additionally, calibration of ultrasonic systems in the field could be obtained by offline optimization of equalization coefficients. In this work, a parametric equalizer for ultrasonic applications has been developed using multiple bi-quadratic filter elements arranged in a novel parallel arrangement to increase the flexibility of the equalization. The equalizer was implemented on a programmable system-on-chip (PSOC) using a small number of parallel 4th-order infinite impulse response switchedcapacitor band-pass filters. Because of the interdependency of the required coefficients for the switched capacitors, particle swarm optimization (PSO) was used to determine the optimum values. The response of a through-transmission system using air-coupled capacitive ultrasonic transducers was then equalized to idealized Hamming function or brick-wall frequencydomain responses. In each case, there was excellent agreement between the equalized signals and the theoretical model, and the fidelity of the time-domain response was maintained. The bandwidth and center frequency response of the system were significantly improved. It was also shown that the equalizer could be used on either the transmitter or the receiver, and the system could compensate for the effects of transmitterreceiver misalignment. © 2012 IEEE

Comparing of Cox model and parametric models in analysis of effective factors on event time of neuropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Kargarian-Marvasti, Sadegh; Rimaz, Shahnaz; Abolghasemi, Jamileh; Heydari, Iraj

2017-01-01

Cox proportional hazard model is the most common method for analyzing the effects of several variables on survival time. However, under certain circumstances, parametric models give more precise estimates to analyze survival data than Cox. The purpose of this study was to investigate the comparative performance of Cox and parametric models in a survival analysis of factors affecting the event time of neuropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes. This study included 371 patients with type 2 diabetes without neuropathy who were registered at Fereydunshahr diabetes clinic. Subjects were followed up for the development of neuropathy between 2006 to March 2016. To investigate the factors influencing the event time of neuropathy, significant variables in univariate model ( P < 0.20) were entered into the multivariate Cox and parametric models ( P < 0.05). In addition, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and area under ROC curves were used to evaluate the relative goodness of fitted model and the efficiency of each procedure, respectively. Statistical computing was performed using R software version 3.2.3 (UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS). Using Kaplan-Meier, survival time of neuropathy was computed 76.6 ± 5 months after initial diagnosis of diabetes. After multivariate analysis of Cox and parametric models, ethnicity, high-density lipoprotein and family history of diabetes were identified as predictors of event time of neuropathy ( P < 0.05). According to AIC, "log-normal" model with the lowest Akaike's was the best-fitted model among Cox and parametric models. According to the results of comparison of survival receiver operating characteristics curves, log-normal model was considered as the most efficient and fitted model.

A differential CDM model for fatigue of unidirectional metal matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Kruch, S.

1992-01-01

A multiaxial, isothermal, continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model for fatigue of a unidirectional metal matrix composite volume element is presented. The model is phenomenological, stress based, and assumes a single scalar internal damage variable, the evolution of which is anisotropic. The development of the fatigue damage model, (i.e., evolutionary law) is based on the definition of an initially transversely isotropic fatigue limit surface, a static fracture surface, and a normalized stress amplitude function. The anisotropy of these surfaces and function, and therefore the model, is defined through physically meaningful invariants reflecting the local stress and material orientation. This transversely isotropic model is shown, when taken to it's isotropic limit, to directly simplify to a previously developed and validated isotropic fatigue continuum damage model. Results of a nondimensional parametric study illustrate (1) the flexibility of the present formulation in attempting to characterize a class of composite materials, and (2) the capability of the formulation in predicting anticipated qualitative trends in the fatigue behavior of unidirectional metal matrix composites. Also, specific material parameters representing an initial characterization of the composite system SiC/Ti 15-3 and the matrix material (Ti 15-3) are reported.

SEMIPARAMETRIC ZERO-INFLATED MODELING IN MULTI-ETHNIC STUDY OF ATHEROSCLEROSIS (MESA)

PubMed Central

Liu, Hai; Ma, Shuangge; Kronmal, Richard; Chan, Kung-Sik

2013-01-01

We analyze the Agatston score of coronary artery calcium (CAC) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) using semi-parametric zero-inflated modeling approach, where the observed CAC scores from this cohort consist of high frequency of zeroes and continuously distributed positive values. Both partially constrained and unconstrained models are considered to investigate the underlying biological processes of CAC development from zero to positive, and from small amount to large amount. Different from existing studies, a model selection procedure based on likelihood cross-validation is adopted to identify the optimal model, which is justified by comparative Monte Carlo studies. A shrinkaged version of cubic regression spline is used for model estimation and variable selection simultaneously. When applying the proposed methods to the MESA data analysis, we show that the two biological mechanisms influencing the initiation of CAC and the magnitude of CAC when it is positive are better characterized by an unconstrained zero-inflated normal model. Our results are significantly different from those in published studies, and may provide further insights into the biological mechanisms underlying CAC development in human. This highly flexible statistical framework can be applied to zero-inflated data analyses in other areas. PMID:23805172

Parametric Stiffness Control of Flexible Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moon, F. C.; Rand, R. H.

1985-01-01

An unconventional method for control of flexible space structures using feedback control of certain elements of the stiffness matrix is discussed. The advantage of using this method of configuration control is that it can be accomplished in practical structures by changing the initial stress state in the structure. The initial stress state can be controlled hydraulically or by cables. The method leads, however, to nonlinear control equations. In particular, a long slender truss structure under cable induced initial compression is examined. both analytical and numerical analyses are presented. Nonlinear analysis using center manifold theory and normal form theory is used to determine criteria on the nonlinear control gains for stable or unstable operation. The analysis is made possible by the use of the exact computer algebra system MACSYMA.

LPV H-infinity Control for the Longitudinal Dynamics of a Flexible Air-Breathing Hypersonic Vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Hunter Douglas

This dissertation establishes the method needed to synthesize and simulate an Hinfinity Linear Parameter-Varying (LPV) controller for a flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicle model. A study was conducted to gain the understanding of the elastic effects on the open loop system. It was determined that three modes of vibration would be suitable for the hypersonic vehicle model. It was also discovered from the open loop study that there is strong coupling in the hypersonic vehicle states, especially between the angle of attack, pitch rate, pitch attitude, and the exible modes of the vehicle. This dissertation outlines the procedure for synthesizing a full state feedback Hinfinity LPV controller for the hypersonic vehicle. The full state feedback study looked at both velocity and altitude tracking for the exible vehicle. A parametric study was conducted on each of these controllers to see the effects of changing the number of gridding points in the parameter space and changing the parameter variation rate limits in the system on the robust performance of the controller. As a result of the parametric study, a 7 x 7 grid ranging from Mach 7 to Mach 9 in velocity and from 70,000 feet to 90,000 feet in altitude, and a parameter variation rate limit of [.5 200]T was used for both the velocity tracking and altitude tracking cases. The resulting Hinfinity robust performances were gamma = 2.2224 for the velocity tracking case and = 1:7582 for the altitude tracking case. A linear analysis was then conducted on five different selected trim points from the Hinfinity LPV controller. This was conducted for the velocity tracking and altitude tracking cases. The results of linear analysis show that there is a slight difference in the response of the Hinfinity LPV controller and the fixed point H infinity controller. For the tracking task, the Hinfinity controller responds more quickly, and has a lower Hinfinity performance value. Next, the H infinity LPV controller was simulated using the nonlinear flexible hypersonic model for both the velocity tracking and altitude tracking cases. Both of these cases were subject to a ramp input and a multi-step input both with and without perturbation in the model. The results of the simulation show that the tracking state follows the command signal successfully though the perturbed system does show some higher frequency characteristics in the non-tracking states. It was discovered that there is an issue with integral windup when switching takes place in the controller, so an algorithm was implemented to reset the integration of the error on the tracking state when the switch takes place. It was also seen that there was a decline in altitude when tracking velocity, and a large change in velocity that occurred during altitude tracking. These results lead to the decision to include a unity gain regulation state on velocity for the altitude tracking and the altitude for the velocity tracking during the output feedback control synthesis. The procedure for synthesizing an output feedback H infinity LPV controller for the hypersonic vehicle is also discussed in this dissertation. The output feedback design looked at velocity tracking and altitude tracking with rigid body motion variables for both the exible and rigid body hypersonic vehicle models. As with the full state feedback controller, a parametric study was conducted on each of these controllers to determine the number of gridding points in the parameter space and the parameter variation rate limits in the system. The parametric study reveals a 7x7 grid ranging from Mach 7 to Mach 9 in velocity and from 70,000 feet to 90,000 feet in altitude, and a parameter variation rate limit of [.1 200]T is preferable for both the velocity tracking and altitude tracking cases with both the exible and rigid body assumptions. The resulting Hinfinity robust performances were gamma = 113:2146 for the exible body velocity tracking case, gamma = 83.6931 for the rigid body velocity tracking case, gamma = 107:2043 for the exible body altitude tracking case, and gamma = 97:7403 for the rigid body altitude tracking case. A linear analysis was then conducted on five different selected trim points from the Hinfinity LPV controller. The results of this analysis show that there is a larger difference in the response of the Hinfinity LPV controller and the Hinfinity controller. For the tracking task, the Hinfinity controller responds more quickly, and has a lower Hinfinity performance value. Next, the Hinfinity LPV controller was applied to the exible nonlinear plant model. The rigid body controllers were applied to the exible plant model to see if the exible nature of the vehicle could be treated as a perturbation to the system. Additionally, there were simulations run both with and without sensor noise and parametric uncertainty. The results of simulation show that the rigid body controller is able to successfully apply to the exible body model for the velocity tracking case, but is unable to stabilize the altitude tracking case. It was also seen that the system is able to track the command signal while minimizing the variations seen in the altitude for the velocity tracking case and in the velocity during the altitude tracking case. Additionally, there was no obvious effect of perturbations in the system on the tracking state or secondary regulation state. There were high frequency responses associated with the other perturbed states.

Synchronous dynamics of a coupled shaft/bearing/housing system with auxiliary support from a clearance bearing: Analysis and experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawen, James, Jr.; Flowers, George T.

1992-01-01

This study examines the response of a flexible rotor supported by load sharing between linear bearings and an auxiliary clearance bearing. The objective of the work is to develop a better understanding of the dynamical behavior of a magnetic bearing supported rotor system interacting with auxiliary bearings during a critical operating condition. Of particular interest is the effect of coupling between the bearing/housing and shaft vibration on the rotordynamical responses. A simulation model is developed and a number of studies are performed for various parametric configurations. An experimental investigation is also conducted to compare and verify the rotordynamic behavior predicted by the simulation studies. A strategy for reducing synchronous shaft vibration through appropriate design of coupled shaft/bearing/housing vibration modes is identified. The results are presented and discussed.

PRESS-based EFOR algorithm for the dynamic parametrical modeling of nonlinear MDOF systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haopeng; Zhu, Yunpeng; Luo, Zhong; Han, Qingkai

2017-09-01

In response to the identification problem concerning multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) nonlinear systems, this study presents the extended forward orthogonal regression (EFOR) based on predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) to construct a nonlinear dynamic parametrical model. The proposed parametrical model is based on the non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) model and aims to explicitly reveal the physical design parameters of the system. The PRESS-based EFOR algorithm is proposed to identify such a model for MDOF systems. By using the algorithm, we built a common-structured model based on the fundamental concept of evaluating its generalization capability through cross-validation. The resulting model aims to prevent over-fitting with poor generalization performance caused by the average error reduction ratio (AERR)-based EFOR algorithm. Then, a functional relationship is established between the coefficients of the terms and the design parameters of the unified model. Moreover, a 5-DOF nonlinear system is taken as a case to illustrate the modeling of the proposed algorithm. Finally, a dynamic parametrical model of a cantilever beam is constructed from experimental data. Results indicate that the dynamic parametrical model of nonlinear systems, which depends on the PRESS-based EFOR, can accurately predict the output response, thus providing a theoretical basis for the optimal design of modeling methods for MDOF nonlinear systems.

Semi-Automatic Modelling of Building FAÇADES with Shape Grammars Using Historic Building Information Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dore, C.; Murphy, M.

2013-02-01

This paper outlines a new approach for generating digital heritage models from laser scan or photogrammetric data using Historic Building Information Modelling (HBIM). HBIM is a plug-in for Building Information Modelling (BIM) software that uses parametric library objects and procedural modelling techniques to automate the modelling stage. The HBIM process involves a reverse engineering solution whereby parametric interactive objects representing architectural elements are mapped onto laser scan or photogrammetric survey data. A library of parametric architectural objects has been designed from historic manuscripts and architectural pattern books. These parametric objects were built using an embedded programming language within the ArchiCAD BIM software called Geometric Description Language (GDL). Procedural modelling techniques have been implemented with the same language to create a parametric building façade which automatically combines library objects based on architectural rules and proportions. Different configurations of the façade are controlled by user parameter adjustment. The automatically positioned elements of the façade can be subsequently refined using graphical editing while overlaying the model with orthographic imagery. Along with this semi-automatic method for generating façade models, manual plotting of library objects can also be used to generate a BIM model from survey data. After the 3D model has been completed conservation documents such as plans, sections, elevations and 3D views can be automatically generated for conservation projects.

Z/sub n/ Baxter model: symmetries and the Belavin parametrization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richey, M.P.; Tracy, C.A.

1986-02-01

The Z/sub n/ Baxter model is an exactly solvable lattice model in the special case of the Belavin parametrization. For this parametrization the authors calculate the partition function in an antiferromagnetic region and the order parameter in a ferromagnetic region. They find that the order parameter is expressible in terms of a modular function of level n which for n=2 is the Onsager-Yang-Baxter result. In addition they determine the symmetry group of the finite lattice partition function for the general Z/sub n/ Baxter model.

Multi-parametric centrality method for graph network models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Sergei Evgenievich; Gorlushkina, Natalia Nikolaevna; Ivanova, Lubov Nikolaevna

2018-04-01

The graph model networks are investigated to determine centrality, weights and the significance of vertices. For centrality analysis appliesa typical method that includesany one of the properties of graph vertices. In graph theory, methods of analyzing centrality are used: in terms by degree, closeness, betweenness, radiality, eccentricity, page-rank, status, Katz and eigenvector. We have proposed a new method of multi-parametric centrality, which includes a number of basic properties of the network member. The mathematical model of multi-parametric centrality method is developed. Comparison of results for the presented method with the centrality methods is carried out. For evaluate the results for the multi-parametric centrality methodthe graph model with hundreds of vertices is analyzed. The comparative analysis showed the accuracy of presented method, includes simultaneously a number of basic properties of vertices.

Applying Statistical Models and Parametric Distance Measures for Music Similarity Search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukashevich, Hanna; Dittmar, Christian; Bastuck, Christoph

Automatic deriving of similarity relations between music pieces is an inherent field of music information retrieval research. Due to the nearly unrestricted amount of musical data, the real-world similarity search algorithms have to be highly efficient and scalable. The possible solution is to represent each music excerpt with a statistical model (ex. Gaussian mixture model) and thus to reduce the computational costs by applying the parametric distance measures between the models. In this paper we discuss the combinations of applying different parametric modelling techniques and distance measures and weigh the benefits of each one against the others.

Parametric Modeling for Fluid Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pizarro, Yaritzmar Rosario; Martinez, Jonathan

2013-01-01

Fluid Systems involves different projects that require parametric modeling, which is a model that maintains consistent relationships between elements as is manipulated. One of these projects is the Neo Liquid Propellant Testbed, which is part of Rocket U. As part of Rocket U (Rocket University), engineers at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida have the opportunity to develop critical flight skills as they design, build and launch high-powered rockets. To build the Neo testbed; hardware from the Space Shuttle Program was repurposed. Modeling for Neo, included: fittings, valves, frames and tubing, between others. These models help in the review process, to make sure regulations are being followed. Another fluid systems project that required modeling is Plant Habitat's TCUI test project. Plant Habitat is a plan to develop a large growth chamber to learn the effects of long-duration microgravity exposure to plants in space. Work for this project included the design and modeling of a duct vent for flow test. Parametric Modeling for these projects was done using Creo Parametric 2.0.

Brayton Power Conversion System Parametric Design Modelling for Nuclear Electric Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashe, Thomas L.; Otting, William D.

1993-01-01

The parametrically based closed Brayton cycle (CBC) computer design model was developed for inclusion into the NASA LeRC overall Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) end-to-end systems model. The code is intended to provide greater depth to the NEP system modeling which is required to more accurately predict the impact of specific technology on system performance. The CBC model is parametrically based to allow for conducting detailed optimization studies and to provide for easy integration into an overall optimizer driver routine. The power conversion model includes the modeling of the turbines, alternators, compressors, ducting, and heat exchangers (hot-side heat exchanger and recuperator). The code predicts performance to significant detail. The system characteristics determined include estimates of mass, efficiency, and the characteristic dimensions of the major power conversion system components. These characteristics are parametrically modeled as a function of input parameters such as the aerodynamic configuration (axial or radial), turbine inlet temperature, cycle temperature ratio, power level, lifetime, materials, and redundancy.

Comparison Between Linear and Non-parametric Regression Models for Genome-Enabled Prediction in Wheat

PubMed Central

Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

2012-01-01

In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models. PMID:23275882

Comparison between linear and non-parametric regression models for genome-enabled prediction in wheat.

PubMed

Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

2012-12-01

In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models.

Bidirectional reflectance distribution function measurements and analysis of retroreflective materials.

PubMed

Belcour, Laurent; Pacanowski, Romain; Delahaie, Marion; Laville-Geay, Aude; Eupherte, Laure

2014-12-01

We compare the performance of various analytical retroreflecting bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) models to assess how they reproduce accurately measured data of retroreflecting materials. We introduce a new parametrization, the back vector parametrization, to analyze retroreflecting data, and we show that this parametrization better preserves the isotropy of data. Furthermore, we update existing BRDF models to improve the representation of retroreflective data.

Validation of a Parametric Approach for 3d Fortification Modelling: Application to Scale Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquot, K.; Chevrier, C.; Halin, G.

2013-02-01

Parametric modelling approach applied to cultural heritage virtual representation is a field of research explored for years since it can address many limitations of digitising tools. For example, essential historical sources for fortification virtual reconstructions like plans-reliefs have several shortcomings when they are scanned. To overcome those problems, knowledge based-modelling can be used: knowledge models based on the analysis of theoretical literature of a specific domain such as bastioned fortification treatises can be the cornerstone of the creation of a parametric library of fortification components. Implemented in Grasshopper, these components are manually adjusted on the data available (i.e. 3D surveys of plans-reliefs or scanned maps). Most of the fortification area is now modelled and the question of accuracy assessment is raised. A specific method is used to evaluate the accuracy of the parametric components. The results of the assessment process will allow us to validate the parametric approach. The automation of the adjustment process can finally be planned. The virtual model of fortification is part of a larger project aimed at valorising and diffusing a very unique cultural heritage item: the collection of plans-reliefs. As such, knowledge models are precious assets when automation and semantic enhancements will be considered.

A Parametric Approach to Numerical Modeling of TKR Contact Forces

PubMed Central

Lundberg, Hannah J.; Foucher, Kharma C.; Wimmer, Markus A.

2009-01-01

In vivo knee contact forces are difficult to determine using numerical methods because there are more unknown forces than equilibrium equations available. We developed parametric methods for computing contact forces across the knee joint during the stance phase of level walking. Three-dimensional contact forces were calculated at two points of contact between the tibia and the femur, one on the lateral aspect of the tibial plateau, and one on the medial side. Muscle activations were parametrically varied over their physiologic range resulting in a solution space of contact forces. The obtained solution space was reasonably small and the resulting force pattern compared well to a previous model from the literature for kinematics and external kinetics from the same patient. Peak forces of the parametric model and the previous model were similar for the first half of the stance phase, but differed for the second half. The previous model did not take into account the transverse external moment about the knee and could not calculate muscle activation levels. Ultimately, the parametric model will result in more accurate contact force inputs for total knee simulators, as current inputs are not generally based on kinematics and kinetics inputs from TKR patients. PMID:19155015

Stock price forecasting for companies listed on Tehran stock exchange using multivariate adaptive regression splines model and semi-parametric splines technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Abbaszadeh, Mohammad Reza; Arashi, Mohammad

2015-11-01

One of the most important topics of interest to investors is stock price changes. Investors whose goals are long term are sensitive to stock price and its changes and react to them. In this regard, we used multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model and semi-parametric splines technique for predicting stock price in this study. The MARS model as a nonparametric method is an adaptive method for regression and it fits for problems with high dimensions and several variables. semi-parametric splines technique was used in this study. Smoothing splines is a nonparametric regression method. In this study, we used 40 variables (30 accounting variables and 10 economic variables) for predicting stock price using the MARS model and using semi-parametric splines technique. After investigating the models, we select 4 accounting variables (book value per share, predicted earnings per share, P/E ratio and risk) as influencing variables on predicting stock price using the MARS model. After fitting the semi-parametric splines technique, only 4 accounting variables (dividends, net EPS, EPS Forecast and P/E Ratio) were selected as variables effective in forecasting stock prices.

Shuttle cryogenic supply system optimization study. Volume 5A-1: Users manual for math models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

The Integrated Math Model for Cryogenic Systems is a flexible, broadly applicable systems parametric analysis tool. The program will effectively accommodate systems of considerable complexity involving large numbers of performance dependent variables such as are found in the individual and integrated cryogen systems. Basically, the program logic structure pursues an orderly progression path through any given system in much the same fashion as is employed for manual systems analysis. The system configuration schematic is converted to an alpha-numeric formatted configuration data table input starting with the cryogen consumer and identifying all components, such as lines, fittings, and valves, each in its proper order and ending with the cryogen supply source assembly. Then, for each of the constituent component assemblies, such as gas generators, turbo machinery, heat exchangers, and accumulators, the performance requirements are assembled in input data tabulations. Systems operating constraints and duty cycle definitions are further added as input data coded to the configuration operating sequence.

Torsional vibration of a cracked rod by variational formulation and numerical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chondros, T. G.; Labeas, G. N.

2007-04-01

The torsional vibration of a circumferentially cracked cylindrical shaft is studied through an "exact" analytical solution and a numerical finite element (FE) analysis. The Hu-Washizu-Barr variational formulation is used to develop the differential equation and the boundary conditions of the cracked rod. The equations of motion for a uniform cracked rod in torsional vibration are derived and solved, and the Rayleigh quotient is used to further approximate the natural frequencies of the cracked rod. Results for the problem of the torsional vibration of a cylindrical shaft with a peripheral crack are provided through an analytical solution based on variational formulation to derive the equation of motion and a numerical analysis utilizing a parametric three-dimensional (3D) solid FE model of the cracked rod. The crack is modelled as a continuous flexibility based on fracture mechanics principles. The variational formulation results are compared with the FE alternative. The sensitivity of the FE discretization with respect to the analytical results is assessed.

The influence of parametric and external noise in act-and-wait control with delayed feedback.

PubMed

Wang, Jiaxing; Kuske, Rachel

2017-11-01

We apply several novel semi-analytic approaches for characterizing and calculating the effects of noise in a system with act-and-wait control. For concrete illustration, we apply these to a canonical balance model for an inverted pendulum to study the combined effect of delay and noise within the act-and-wait setting. While the act-and-wait control facilitates strong stabilization through deadbeat control, a comparison of different models with continuous vs. discrete updating of the control strategy in the active period illustrates how delays combined with the imprecise application of the control can seriously degrade the performance. We give several novel analyses of a generalized act-and-wait control strategy, allowing flexibility in the updating of the control strategy, in order to understand the sensitivities to delays and random fluctuations. In both the deterministic and stochastic settings, we give analytical and semi-analytical results that characterize and quantify the dynamics of the system. These results include the size and shape of stability regions, densities for the critical eigenvalues that capture the rate of reaching the desired stable equilibrium, and amplification factors for sustained fluctuations in the context of external noise. They also provide the dependence of these quantities on the length of the delay and the active period. In particular, we see that the combined influence of delay, parametric error, or external noise and on-off control can qualitatively change the dynamics, thus reducing the robustness of the control strategy. We also capture the dependence on how frequently the control is updated, allowing an interpolation between continuous and frequent updating. In addition to providing insights for these specific models, the methods we propose are generalizable to other settings with noise, delay, and on-off control, where analytical techniques are otherwise severely scarce.

Exact Bayesian Inference for Phylogenetic Birth-Death Models.

PubMed

Parag, K V; Pybus, O G

2018-04-26

Inferring the rates of change of a population from a reconstructed phylogeny of genetic sequences is a central problem in macro-evolutionary biology, epidemiology, and many other disciplines. A popular solution involves estimating the parameters of a birth-death process (BDP), which links the shape of the phylogeny to its birth and death rates. Modern BDP estimators rely on random Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to infer these rates. Such methods, while powerful and scalable, cannot be guaranteed to converge, leading to results that may be hard to replicate or difficult to validate. We present a conceptually and computationally different parametric BDP inference approach using flexible and easy to implement Snyder filter (SF) algorithms. This method is deterministic so its results are provable, guaranteed, and reproducible. We validate the SF on constant rate BDPs and find that it solves BDP likelihoods known to produce robust estimates. We then examine more complex BDPs with time-varying rates. Our estimates compare well with a recently developed parametric MCMC inference method. Lastly, we performmodel selection on an empirical Agamid species phylogeny, obtaining results consistent with the literature. The SF makes no approximations, beyond those required for parameter quantisation and numerical integration, and directly computes the posterior distribution of model parameters. It is a promising alternative inference algorithm that may serve either as a standalone Bayesian estimator or as a useful diagnostic reference for validating more involved MCMC strategies. The Snyder filter is implemented in Matlab and the time-varying BDP models are simulated in R. The source code and data are freely available at https://github.com/kpzoo/snyder-birth-death-code. kris.parag@zoo.ox.ac.uk. Supplementary material is available at Bioinformatics online.

Parametric modelling of cost data in medical studies.

PubMed

Nixon, R M; Thompson, S G

2004-04-30

The cost of medical resources used is often recorded for each patient in clinical studies in order to inform decision-making. Although cost data are generally skewed to the right, interest is in making inferences about the population mean cost. Common methods for non-normal data, such as data transformation, assuming asymptotic normality of the sample mean or non-parametric bootstrapping, are not ideal. This paper describes possible parametric models for analysing cost data. Four example data sets are considered, which have different sample sizes and degrees of skewness. Normal, gamma, log-normal, and log-logistic distributions are fitted, together with three-parameter versions of the latter three distributions. Maximum likelihood estimates of the population mean are found; confidence intervals are derived by a parametric BC(a) bootstrap and checked by MCMC methods. Differences between model fits and inferences are explored.Skewed parametric distributions fit cost data better than the normal distribution, and should in principle be preferred for estimating the population mean cost. However for some data sets, we find that models that fit badly can give similar inferences to those that fit well. Conversely, particularly when sample sizes are not large, different parametric models that fit the data equally well can lead to substantially different inferences. We conclude that inferences are sensitive to choice of statistical model, which itself can remain uncertain unless there is enough data to model the tail of the distribution accurately. Investigating the sensitivity of conclusions to choice of model should thus be an essential component of analysing cost data in practice. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Coupled oscillators in identification of nonlinear damping of a real parametric pendulum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olejnik, Paweł; Awrejcewicz, Jan

2018-01-01

A damped parametric pendulum with friction is identified twice by means of its precise and imprecise mathematical model. A laboratory test stand designed for experimental investigations of nonlinear effects determined by a viscous resistance and the stick-slip phenomenon serves as the model mechanical system. An influence of accurateness of mathematical modeling on the time variability of the nonlinear damping coefficient of the oscillator is proved. A free decay response of a precisely and imprecisely modeled physical pendulum is dependent on two different time-varying coefficients of damping. The coefficients of the analyzed parametric oscillator are identified with the use of a new semi-empirical method based on a coupled oscillators approach, utilizing the fractional order derivative of the discrete measurement series treated as an input to the numerical model. Results of application of the proposed method of identification of the nonlinear coefficients of the damped parametric oscillator have been illustrated and extensively discussed.

Modeling the directivity of parametric loudspeaker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Chuang; Gan, Woon-Seng

2012-09-01

The emerging applications of the parametric loudspeaker, such as 3D audio, demands accurate directivity control at the audible frequency (i.e. the difference frequency). Though the delay-and-sum beamforming has been proven adequate to adjust the steering angles of the parametric loudspeaker, accurate prediction of the mainlobe and sidelobes remains a challenging problem. It is mainly because of the approximations that are used to derive the directivity of the difference frequency from the directivity of the primary frequency, and the mismatches between the theoretical directivity and the measured directivity caused by system errors incurred at different stages of the implementation. In this paper, we propose a directivity model of the parametric loudspeaker. The directivity model consists of two tuning vectors corresponding to the spacing error and the weight error for the primary frequency. The directivity model adopts a modified form of the product directivity principle for the difference frequency to further improve the modeling accuracy.

Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Dollinger, Courtney

2010-01-01

Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.

Out-of-Sample Extensions for Non-Parametric Kernel Methods.

PubMed

Pan, Binbin; Chen, Wen-Sheng; Chen, Bo; Xu, Chen; Lai, Jianhuang

2017-02-01

Choosing suitable kernels plays an important role in the performance of kernel methods. Recently, a number of studies were devoted to developing nonparametric kernels. Without assuming any parametric form of the target kernel, nonparametric kernel learning offers a flexible scheme to utilize the information of the data, which may potentially characterize the data similarity better. The kernel methods using nonparametric kernels are referred to as nonparametric kernel methods. However, many nonparametric kernel methods are restricted to transductive learning, where the prediction function is defined only over the data points given beforehand. They have no straightforward extension for the out-of-sample data points, and thus cannot be applied to inductive learning. In this paper, we show how to make the nonparametric kernel methods applicable to inductive learning. The key problem of out-of-sample extension is how to extend the nonparametric kernel matrix to the corresponding kernel function. A regression approach in the hyper reproducing kernel Hilbert space is proposed to solve this problem. Empirical results indicate that the out-of-sample performance is comparable to the in-sample performance in most cases. Experiments on face recognition demonstrate the superiority of our nonparametric kernel method over the state-of-the-art parametric kernel methods.

Multiresponse semiparametric regression for modelling the effect of regional socio-economic variables on the use of information technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wibowo, Wahyu; Wene, Chatrien; Budiantara, I. Nyoman; Permatasari, Erma Oktania

2017-03-01

Multiresponse semiparametric regression is simultaneous equation regression model and fusion of parametric and nonparametric model. The regression model comprise several models and each model has two components, parametric and nonparametric. The used model has linear function as parametric and polynomial truncated spline as nonparametric component. The model can handle both linearity and nonlinearity relationship between response and the sets of predictor variables. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of the regression model for modeling of effect of regional socio-economic on use of information technology. More specific, the response variables are percentage of households has access to internet and percentage of households has personal computer. Then, predictor variables are percentage of literacy people, percentage of electrification and percentage of economic growth. Based on identification of the relationship between response and predictor variable, economic growth is treated as nonparametric predictor and the others are parametric predictors. The result shows that the multiresponse semiparametric regression can be applied well as indicate by the high coefficient determination, 90 percent.

Improvements in Sensible Heat-Flux Parametrization in the High-Resolution Regional Model (HRM) Through the Modified Treatment of the Roughness Length for Heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anurose, T. J.; Subrahamanyam, D. Bala

2013-06-01

We discuss the impact of the differential treatment of the roughness lengths for momentum and heat (z_{0m} and z_{0h}) in the flux parametrization scheme of the high-resolution regional model (HRM) for a heterogeneous terrain centred around Thiruvananthapuram, India (8.5°N, 76.9°E). The magnitudes of sensible heat flux ( H) obtained from HRM simulations using the original parametrization scheme differed drastically from the concurrent in situ observations. With a view to improving the performance of this parametrization scheme, two distinct modifications are incorporated: (1) In the first method, a constant value of 100 is assigned to the z_{0m}/z_{0h} ratio; (2) and in the second approach, this ratio is treated as a function of time. Both these modifications in the HRM model showed significant improvements in the H simulations for Thiruvananthapuram and its adjoining regions. Results obtained from the present study provide a first-ever comparison of H simulations using the modified parametrization scheme in the HRM model with in situ observations for the Indian coastal region, and suggest a differential treatment of z_{0m} and z_{0h} in the flux parametrization scheme.

Attention and positive affect: temporal switching or spatial broadening?

PubMed

Phaf, R Hans

2015-04-01

Evolutionary reasoning and computation suggest that positive affect is associated with higher attentional flexibility than negative affect, even when affectively neutral material is processed. The affective modulation of interference in the Eriksen flanker task seems, however, more readily explained by a spatial broadening of attention due to positive affect. It is argued here that these results should also be interpreted in terms of an increased switching over time between flankers and target (i.e., flexibility). The two hypotheses were contrasted with positive and negative mood inductions in a masked-flanker task. The interval (Stimulus Onset Asynchrony; SOA) with which the masked flankers preceded the target letter was parametrically varied. In contrast to what is found with simultaneous non-masked flanker presentation, masking produced larger interference with negative than with positive moods. In addition, a crossover interaction between mood and SOA emerged. These results seem incompatible with a spatial broadening account and support an affective modulation account in terms of flexibility.

A class of stabilizing controllers for flexible multibody systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, Suresh M.; Kelkar, Atul G.; Maghami, Peiman G.

1995-01-01

The problem of controlling a class of nonlinear multibody flexible space systems consisting of a flexible central body to which a number of articulated appendages are attached is considered. Collocated actuators and sensors are assumed, and global asymptotic stability of such systems is established under a nonlinear dissipative control law. The stability is shown to be robust to unmodeled dynamics and parametric uncertainties. For a special case in which the attitude motion of the central body is small, the system, although still nonlinear, is shown to be stabilized by linear dissipative control laws. Two types of linear controllers are considered: static dissipative (constant gain) and dynamic dissipative. The static dissipative control law is also shown to provide robust stability in the presence of certain classes of actuator and sensor nonlinearities and actuator dynamics. The results obtained for this special case can also be readily applied for controlling single-body linear flexible space structures. For this case, a synthesis technique for the design of a suboptimal dynamic dissipative controller is also presented. The results obtained in this paper are applicable to a broad class of multibody and single-body systems such as flexible multilink manipulators, multipayload space platforms, and space antennas. The stability proofs use the Lyapunov approach and exploit the inherent passivity of such systems.

A numerical study on piezoelectric energy harvesting by combining transverse galloping and parametric instability phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franzini, Guilherme Rosa; Santos, Rebeca Caramêz Saraiva; Pesce, Celso Pupo

2017-12-01

This paper aims to numerically investigate the effects of parametric instability on piezoelectric energy harvesting from the transverse galloping of a square prism. A two degrees-of-freedom reduced-order model for this problem is proposed and numerically integrated. A usual quasi-steady galloping model is applied, where the transverse force coefficient is adopted as a cubic polynomial function with respect to the angle of attack. Time-histories of nondimensional prism displacement, electric voltage and power dissipated at both the dashpot and the electrical resistance are obtained as functions of the reduced velocity. Both, oscillation amplitude and electric voltage, increased with the reduced velocity for all parametric excitation conditions tested. For low values of reduced velocity, 2:1 parametric excitation enhances the electric voltage. On the other hand, for higher reduced velocities, a 1:1 parametric excitation (i.e., the same as the natural frequency) enhances both oscillation amplitude and electric voltage. It has been also found that, depending on the parametric excitation frequency, the harvested electrical power can be amplified in 70% when compared to the case under no parametric excitation.

Genetic Algorithm Based Framework for Automation of Stochastic Modeling of Multi-Season Streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastav, R. K.; Srinivasan, K.; Sudheer, K.

2009-05-01

Synthetic streamflow data generation involves the synthesis of likely streamflow patterns that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed streamflow data. The various kinds of stochastic models adopted for multi-season streamflow generation in hydrology are: i) parametric models which hypothesize the form of the periodic dependence structure and the distributional form a priori (examples are PAR, PARMA); disaggregation models that aim to preserve the correlation structure at the periodic level and the aggregated annual level; ii) Nonparametric models (examples are bootstrap/kernel based methods), which characterize the laws of chance, describing the stream flow process, without recourse to prior assumptions as to the form or structure of these laws; (k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), matched block bootstrap (MABB)); non-parametric disaggregation model. iii) Hybrid models which blend both parametric and non-parametric models advantageously to model the streamflows effectively. Despite many of these developments that have taken place in the field of stochastic modeling of streamflows over the last four decades, accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics has been posing a persistent challenge to the stochastic modeler. This is partly because, usually, the stochastic streamflow model parameters are estimated by minimizing a statistically based objective function (such as maximum likelihood (MLE) or least squares (LS) estimation) and subsequently the efficacy of the models is being validated based on the accuracy of prediction of the estimates of the water-use characteristics, which requires large number of trial simulations and inspection of many plots and tables. Still accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics may not be ensured. In this study a multi-objective optimization framework is proposed to find the optimal hybrid model (blend of a simple parametric model, PAR(1) model and matched block bootstrap (MABB) ) based on the explicit objective functions of minimizing the relative bias and relative root mean square error in estimating the storage capacity of the reservoir. The optimal parameter set of the hybrid model is obtained based on the search over a multi- dimensional parameter space (involving simultaneous exploration of the parametric (PAR(1)) as well as the non-parametric (MABB) components). This is achieved using the efficient evolutionary search based optimization tool namely, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm - II (NSGA-II). This approach helps in reducing the drudgery involved in the process of manual selection of the hybrid model, in addition to predicting the basic summary statistics dependence structure, marginal distribution and water-use characteristics accurately. The proposed optimization framework is used to model the multi-season streamflows of River Beaver and River Weber of USA. In case of both the rivers, the proposed GA-based hybrid model yields a much better prediction of the storage capacity (where simultaneous exploration of both parametric and non-parametric components is done) when compared with the MLE-based hybrid models (where the hybrid model selection is done in two stages, thus probably resulting in a sub-optimal model). This framework can be further extended to include different linear/non-linear hybrid stochastic models at other temporal and spatial scales as well.

Dirichlet Process Gaussian-mixture model: An application to localizing coalescing binary neutron stars with gravitational-wave observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Pozzo, W.; Berry, C. P. L.; Ghosh, A.; Haines, T. S. F.; Singer, L. P.; Vecchio, A.

2018-06-01

We reconstruct posterior distributions for the position (sky area and distance) of a simulated set of binary neutron-star gravitational-waves signals observed with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. We use a Dirichlet Process Gaussian-mixture model, a fully Bayesian non-parametric method that can be used to estimate probability density functions with a flexible set of assumptions. The ability to reliably reconstruct the source position is important for multimessenger astronomy, as recently demonstrated with GW170817. We show that for detector networks comparable to the early operation of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, typical localization volumes are ˜104-105 Mpc3 corresponding to ˜102-103 potential host galaxies. The localization volume is a strong function of the network signal-to-noise ratio, scaling roughly ∝ϱnet-6. Fractional localizations improve with the addition of further detectors to the network. Our Dirichlet Process Gaussian-mixture model can be adopted for localizing events detected during future gravitational-wave observing runs, and used to facilitate prompt multimessenger follow-up.

Stability and performance of notch filter control for unbalance response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knospe, C. R.

1992-01-01

Many current applications of magnetic bearings for rotating machinery employ notch filters in the feedback control loop to reduce the synchronous forces transmitted through the bearings. The capabilities and limitations of notch filter control are investigated. First, a rigid rotor is examined with some classical root locus techniques. Notch filter control is shown to result in conditional stability whenever complete synchronous attenuation is required. Next, a nondimensional parametric symmetric flexible three mass rotor model is constructed. An examination of this model for several test cases illustrates the limited attenuation possible with notch filters at and near the system critical speeds when the bearing damping is low. The notch filter's alteration of the feedback loop is shown to cause stability problems which limits performance. Poor transient response may also result. A high speed compressor is then examined as a candidate for notch filter control. A collocated 22 mass station model with lead-lag control is used. The analysis confirms the reduction in stability robustness that can occur with notch filter control. It is concluded that other methods of synchronous vibration control yield greater performance without compromising stability.

The impact of covariance misspecification in multivariate Gaussian mixtures on estimation and inference: an application to longitudinal modeling.

PubMed

Heggeseth, Brianna C; Jewell, Nicholas P

2013-07-20

Multivariate Gaussian mixtures are a class of models that provide a flexible parametric approach for the representation of heterogeneous multivariate outcomes. When the outcome is a vector of repeated measurements taken on the same subject, there is often inherent dependence between observations. However, a common covariance assumption is conditional independence-that is, given the mixture component label, the outcomes for subjects are independent. In this paper, we study, through asymptotic bias calculations and simulation, the impact of covariance misspecification in multivariate Gaussian mixtures. Although maximum likelihood estimators of regression and mixing probability parameters are not consistent under misspecification, they have little asymptotic bias when mixture components are well separated or if the assumed correlation is close to the truth even when the covariance is misspecified. We also present a robust standard error estimator and show that it outperforms conventional estimators in simulations and can indicate that the model is misspecified. Body mass index data from a national longitudinal study are used to demonstrate the effects of misspecification on potential inferences made in practice. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a Novel Open Source Rainfall-Runoff Model for Areas with Shallow Groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brauer, C.; Teuling, R.; Torfs, P.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2014-12-01

Recently, we developed the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS) to fill the gap between complex, spatially distributed models which are often used in lowland regions and simple, parametric models which have mostly been developed for mountainous catchments. This parametric rainfall-runoff model can be used all over the world, both in freely draining lowland catchments and polders with controlled water levels. Here, we present the model implementation and our recent experience in training students and practitioners to use the model. WALRUS has several advantages that facilitate practical application. Firstly, WALRUS is computationally efficient, which allows for operational forecasting and uncertainty estimation by running ensembles. Secondly, the code is set-up such that it can be used by both practitioners and researchers. For direct use by practitioners, defaults are implemented for relations between model variables and for the computation of initial conditions based on discharge only, leaving only four parameters which require calibration. For research purposes, the defaults can easily be changed. Finally, an approach for flexible time steps increases numerical stability and makes model parameter values independent of time step size, which facilitates use of the model with the same parameter set for multi-year water balance studies as well as detailed analyses of individual flood peaks. The open source model code is currently implemented in R and compiled into a package. This package will be made available through the R CRAN server. A small massive open online course (MOOC) is being developed to give students, researchers and practitioners a step-by-step WALRUS-training. This course contains explanations about model elements and its advantages and limitations, as well as hands-on exercises to learn how to use WALRUS. All code, course, literature and examples will be collected on a dedicated website, which can be found via www.wageningenur.nl/hwm. References C.C. Brauer, et al. (2014a). Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 7, 1357—1411. C.C. Brauer, et al. (2014b). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 11, 2091—2148.

Probing kinematics and fate of the Universe with linearly time-varying deceleration parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akarsu, Özgür; Dereli, Tekin; Kumar, Suresh; Xu, Lixin

2014-02-01

The parametrizations q = q 0+ q 1 z and q = q 0+ q 1(1 - a/ a 0) (Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parametrization) of the deceleration parameter, which are linear in cosmic redshift z and scale factor a , have been frequently utilized in the literature to study the kinematics of the Universe. In this paper, we follow a strategy that leads to these two well-known parametrizations of the deceleration parameter as well as an additional new parametrization, q = q 0+ q 1(1 - t/ t 0), which is linear in cosmic time t. We study the features of this linearly time-varying deceleration parameter in contrast with the other two linear parametrizations. We investigate in detail the kinematics of the Universe by confronting the three models with the latest observational data. We further study the dynamics of the Universe by considering the linearly time-varying deceleration parameter model in comparison with the standard ΛCDM model. We also discuss the future of the Universe in the context of the models under consideration.

Latent component-based gear tooth fault detection filter using advanced parametric modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ettefagh, M. M.; Sadeghi, M. H.; Rezaee, M.; Chitsaz, S.

2009-10-01

In this paper, a new parametric model-based filter is proposed for gear tooth fault detection. The designing of the filter consists of identifying the most proper latent component (LC) of the undamaged gearbox signal by analyzing the instant modules (IMs) and instant frequencies (IFs) and then using the component with lowest IM as the proposed filter output for detecting fault of the gearbox. The filter parameters are estimated by using the LC theory in which an advanced parametric modeling method has been implemented. The proposed method is applied on the signals, extracted from simulated gearbox for detection of the simulated gear faults. In addition, the method is used for quality inspection of the produced Nissan-Junior vehicle gearbox by gear profile error detection in an industrial test bed. For evaluation purpose, the proposed method is compared with the previous parametric TAR/AR-based filters in which the parametric model residual is considered as the filter output and also Yule-Walker and Kalman filter are implemented for estimating the parameters. The results confirm the high performance of the new proposed fault detection method.

Single-arm phase II trial design under parametric cure models.

PubMed

Wu, Jianrong

2015-01-01

The current practice of designing single-arm phase II survival trials is limited under the exponential model. Trial design under the exponential model may not be appropriate when a portion of patients are cured. There is no literature available for designing single-arm phase II trials under the parametric cure model. In this paper, a test statistic is proposed, and a sample size formula is derived for designing single-arm phase II trials under a class of parametric cure models. Extensive simulations showed that the proposed test and sample size formula perform very well under different scenarios. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A detailed view on Model-Based Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction for detecting gene-gene interactions in case-control data in the absence and presence of noise

PubMed Central

CATTAERT, TOM; CALLE, M. LUZ; DUDEK, SCOTT M.; MAHACHIE JOHN, JESTINAH M.; VAN LISHOUT, FRANÇOIS; URREA, VICTOR; RITCHIE, MARYLYN D.; VAN STEEN, KRISTEL

2010-01-01

SUMMARY Analyzing the combined effects of genes and/or environmental factors on the development of complex diseases is a great challenge from both the statistical and computational perspective, even using a relatively small number of genetic and non-genetic exposures. Several data mining methods have been proposed for interaction analysis, among them, the Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction Method (MDR), which has proven its utility in a variety of theoretical and practical settings. Model-Based Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MB-MDR), a relatively new MDR-based technique that is able to unify the best of both non-parametric and parametric worlds, was developed to address some of the remaining concerns that go along with an MDR-analysis. These include the restriction to univariate, dichotomous traits, the absence of flexible ways to adjust for lower-order effects and important confounders, and the difficulty to highlight epistasis effects when too many multi-locus genotype cells are pooled into two new genotype groups. Whereas the true value of MB-MDR can only reveal itself by extensive applications of the method in a variety of real-life scenarios, here we investigate the empirical power of MB-MDR to detect gene-gene interactions in the absence of any noise and in the presence of genotyping error, missing data, phenocopy, and genetic heterogeneity. For the considered simulation settings, we show that the power is generally higher for MB-MDR than for MDR, in particular in the presence of genetic heterogeneity, phenocopy, or low minor allele frequencies. PMID:21158747

Further characterisation of the functional neuroanatomy associated with prosodic emotion decoding.

PubMed

Mitchell, Rachel L C

2013-06-01

Current models of prosodic emotion comprehension propose a three stage cognition mediated by temporal lobe auditory regions through to inferior and orbitofrontal regions. Cumulative evidence suggests that its mediation may be more flexible though, with a facility to respond in a graded manner based on the need for executive control. The location of this fine-tuning system is unclear, as is its similarity to the cognitive control system. In the current study, need for executive control was manipulated in a block-design functional MRI study by systematically altering the proportion of incongruent trials across time, i.e., trials for which participants identified prosodic emotions in the face of conflicting lexico-semantic emotion cues. Resultant Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent contrast data were analysed according to standard procedures using Statistical Parametric Mapping v8 (Ashburner et al., 2009). In the parametric analyses, superior (medial) frontal gyrus activity increased linearly with increased need for executive control. In the separate analyses of each level of incongruity, results suggested that the baseline prosodic emotion comprehension system was sufficient to deal with low proportions of incongruent trials, whereas a more widespread frontal lobe network was required for higher proportions. These results suggest an executive control system for prosodic emotion comprehension exists which has the capability to recruit superior (medial) frontal gyrus in a graded manner and other frontal regions once demand exceeds a certain threshold. The need to revise current models of prosodic emotion comprehension and add a fourth processing stage are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of state updating and multi-parametric ensemble for streamflow hindcasting in European river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Rakovec, O.; Kumar, R.; Samaniego, L. E.

2015-12-01

Accurate and reliable streamflow prediction is essential to mitigate social and economic damage coming from water-related disasters such as flood and drought. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. However, if parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by model ensemble may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we evaluate impacts of streamflow data assimilation over European river basins. Especially, a multi-parametric ensemble approach is tested to consider the effects of parametric uncertainty in DA. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be more stable with limited ensemble members and have potential for operational uses. To consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes, lagged particle filtering is utilized. The presentation will be focused on gains and limitations of streamflow data assimilation and multi-parametric ensemble method over large-scale basins.

Elastic full-waveform inversion and parametrization analysis applied to walk-away vertical seismic profile data for unconventional (heavy oil) reservoir characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Wenyong; Innanen, Kristopher A.; Geng, Yu

2018-06-01

Seismic full-waveform inversion (FWI) methods hold strong potential to recover multiple subsurface elastic properties for hydrocarbon reservoir characterization. Simultaneously updating multiple physical parameters introduces the problem of interparameter trade-off, arising from the simultaneous variations of different physical parameters, which increase the nonlinearity and uncertainty of multiparameter FWI. The coupling effects of different physical parameters are significantly influenced by model parametrization and acquisition arrangement. An appropriate choice of model parametrization is important to successful field data applications of multiparameter FWI. The objective of this paper is to examine the performance of various model parametrizations in isotropic-elastic FWI with walk-away vertical seismic profile (W-VSP) data for unconventional heavy oil reservoir characterization. Six model parametrizations are considered: velocity-density (α, β and ρ΄), modulus-density (κ, μ and ρ), Lamé-density (λ, μ΄ and ρ‴), impedance-density (IP, IS and ρ″), velocity-impedance-I (α΄, β΄ and I_P^' }) and velocity-impedance-II (α″, β″ and I_S^' }). We begin analysing the interparameter trade-off by making use of scattering radiation patterns, which is a common strategy for qualitative parameter resolution analysis. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the scattering radiation patterns and recommend that interparameter trade-offs be evaluated using interparameter contamination kernels, which provide quantitative, second-order measurements of the interparameter contaminations and can be constructed efficiently with an adjoint-state approach. Synthetic W-VSP isotropic-elastic FWI experiments in the time domain verify our conclusions about interparameter trade-offs for various model parametrizations. Density profiles are most strongly influenced by the interparameter contaminations; depending on model parametrization, the inverted density profile can be overestimated, underestimated or spatially distorted. Among the six cases, only the velocity-density parametrization provides stable and informative density features not included in the starting model. Field data applications of multicomponent W-VSP isotropic-elastic FWI in the time domain were also carried out. The heavy oil reservoir target zone, characterized by low α-to-β ratios and low Poisson's ratios, can be identified clearly with the inverted isotropic-elastic parameters.

Modelling and multi-parametric control for delivery of anaesthetic agents.

PubMed

Dua, Pinky; Dua, Vivek; Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N

2010-06-01

This article presents model predictive controllers (MPCs) and multi-parametric model-based controllers for delivery of anaesthetic agents. The MPC can take into account constraints on drug delivery rates and state of the patient but requires solving an optimization problem at regular time intervals. The multi-parametric controller has all the advantages of the MPC and does not require repetitive solution of optimization problem for its implementation. This is achieved by obtaining the optimal drug delivery rates as a set of explicit functions of the state of the patient. The derivation of the controllers relies on using detailed models of the system. A compartmental model for the delivery of three drugs for anaesthesia is developed. The key feature of this model is that mean arterial pressure, cardiac output and unconsciousness of the patient can be simultaneously regulated. This is achieved by using three drugs: dopamine (DP), sodium nitroprusside (SNP) and isoflurane. A number of dynamic simulation experiments are carried out for the validation of the model. The model is then used for the design of model predictive and multi-parametric controllers, and the performance of the controllers is analyzed.

Software Reliability 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, Dolores R.

2003-01-01

In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.

Profile local linear estimation of generalized semiparametric regression model for longitudinal data.

PubMed

Sun, Yanqing; Sun, Liuquan; Zhou, Jie

2013-07-01

This paper studies the generalized semiparametric regression model for longitudinal data where the covariate effects are constant for some and time-varying for others. Different link functions can be used to allow more flexible modelling of longitudinal data. The nonparametric components of the model are estimated using a local linear estimating equation and the parametric components are estimated through a profile estimating function. The method automatically adjusts for heterogeneity of sampling times, allowing the sampling strategy to depend on the past sampling history as well as possibly time-dependent covariates without specifically model such dependence. A [Formula: see text]-fold cross-validation bandwidth selection is proposed as a working tool for locating an appropriate bandwidth. A criteria for selecting the link function is proposed to provide better fit of the data. Large sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated. Large sample pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals for the regression coefficients are constructed. Formal hypothesis testing procedures are proposed to check for the covariate effects and whether the effects are time-varying. A simulation study is conducted to examine the finite sample performances of the proposed estimation and hypothesis testing procedures. The methods are illustrated with a data example.

Stochastic convergence of renewable energy consumption in OECD countries: a fractional integration approach.

PubMed

Solarin, Sakiru Adebola; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko; Al-Mulali, Usama

2018-04-13

In this article, we have examined the hypothesis of convergence of renewable energy consumption in 27 OECD countries. However, instead of relying on classical techniques, which are based on the dichotomy between stationarity I(0) and nonstationarity I(1), we consider a more flexible approach based on fractional integration. We employ both parametric and semiparametric techniques. Using parametric methods, evidence of convergence is found in the cases of Mexico, Switzerland and Sweden along with the USA, Portugal, the Czech Republic, South Korea and Spain, and employing semiparametric approaches, we found evidence of convergence in all these eight countries along with Australia, France, Japan, Greece, Italy and Poland. For the remaining 13 countries, even though the orders of integration of the series are smaller than one in all cases except Germany, the confidence intervals are so wide that we cannot reject the hypothesis of unit roots thus not finding support for the hypothesis of convergence.

Toward a compact fibered squeezing parametric source.

PubMed

Brieussel, Alexandre; Ott, Konstantin; Joos, Maxime; Treps, Nicolas; Fabre, Claude

2018-03-15

In this work, we investigate three different compact fibered systems generating vacuum squeezing that involve optical cavities limited by the end surface of a fiber and by a curved mirror and containing a thin parametric crystal. These systems have the advantage to couple squeezed states directly to a fiber, allowing the user to benefit from the flexibility of fibers in the use of squeezing. Three types of fibers are investigated: standard single-mode fibers, photonic-crystal large-mode-area single-mode fibers, and short multimode fibers taped to a single-mode fiber. The observed squeezing is modest (-0.56  dB, -0.9  dB, -1  dB), but these experiments open the way for miniaturized squeezing devices that could be a very interesting advantage in scaling up quantum systems for quantum processing, opening new perspectives in the domain of integrated quantum optics.

High power tunable mid-infrared optical parametric oscillator enabled by random fiber laser.

PubMed

Wu, Hanshuo; Wang, Peng; Song, Jiaxin; Ye, Jun; Xu, Jiangming; Li, Xiao; Zhou, Pu

2018-03-05

Random fiber laser, as a kind of novel fiber laser that utilizes random distributed feedback as well as Raman gain, has become a research focus owing to its advantages of wavelength flexibility, modeless property and output stability. Herein, a tunable optical parametric oscillator (OPO) enabled by a random fiber laser is reported for the first time. By exploiting a tunable random fiber laser to pump the OPO, the central wavelength of idler light can be continuously tuned from 3977.34 to 4059.65 nm with stable temporal average output power. The maximal output power achieved is 2.07 W. So far as we know, this is the first demonstration of a continuous-wave tunable OPO pumped by a tunable random fiber laser, which could not only provide a new approach for achieving tunable mid-infrared (MIR) emission, but also extend the application scenarios of random fiber lasers.

Effects of Energy Dissipation on the Parametric Excitation of a Coupled Qubit-Cavity System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remizov, S. V.; Zhukov, A. A.; Shapiro, D. S.; Pogosov, W. V.; Lozovik, Yu. E.

2018-06-01

We consider a parametrically driven system of a qubit coupled to a cavity taking into account different channels of energy dissipation. We focus on the periodic modulation of a single parameter of this hybrid system, which is the coupling constant between the two subsystems. Such a modulation is possible within the superconducting realization of qubit-cavity coupled systems, characterized by an outstanding degree of tunability and flexibility. Our major result is that energy dissipation in the cavity can enhance population of the excited state of the qubit in the steady state, while energy dissipation in the qubit subsystem can enhance the number of photons generated from vacuum. We find optimal parameters for the realization of such dissipation-induced amplification of quantum effects. Our results might be of importance for the full control of quantum states of coupled systems as well as for the storage and engineering of quantum states.

Effects of Energy Dissipation on the Parametric Excitation of a Coupled Qubit-Cavity System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remizov, S. V.; Zhukov, A. A.; Shapiro, D. S.; Pogosov, W. V.; Lozovik, Yu. E.

2018-02-01

We consider a parametrically driven system of a qubit coupled to a cavity taking into account different channels of energy dissipation. We focus on the periodic modulation of a single parameter of this hybrid system, which is the coupling constant between the two subsystems. Such a modulation is possible within the superconducting realization of qubit-cavity coupled systems, characterized by an outstanding degree of tunability and flexibility. Our major result is that energy dissipation in the cavity can enhance population of the excited state of the qubit in the steady state, while energy dissipation in the qubit subsystem can enhance the number of photons generated from vacuum. We find optimal parameters for the realization of such dissipation-induced amplification of quantum effects. Our results might be of importance for the full control of quantum states of coupled systems as well as for the storage and engineering of quantum states.

Reconfigurable fuzzy cell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salazar, George A. (Inventor)

1993-01-01

This invention relates to a reconfigurable fuzzy cell comprising a digital control programmable gain operation amplifier, an analog-to-digital converter, an electrically erasable PROM, and 8-bit counter and comparator, and supporting logic configured to achieve in real-time fuzzy systems high throughput, grade-of-membership or membership-value conversion of multi-input sensor data. The invention provides a flexible multiplexing-capable configuration, implemented entirely in hardware, for effectuating S-, Z-, and PI-membership functions or combinations thereof, based upon fuzzy logic level-set theory. A membership value table storing 'knowledge data' for each of S-, Z-, and PI-functions is contained within a nonvolatile memory for storing bits of membership and parametric information in a plurality of address spaces. Based upon parametric and control signals, analog sensor data is digitized and converted into grade-of-membership data. In situ learn and recognition modes of operation are also provided.

Compact, flexible, frequency agile parametric wavelength converter

DOEpatents

Velsko, Stephan P.; Yang, Steven T.

2002-01-01

This improved Frequency Agile Optical Parametric Oscillator provides near on-axis pumping of a single QPMC with a tilted periodically poled grating to overcome the necessity to find a particular crystal that will permit collinear birefringence in order to obtain a desired tuning range. A tilted grating design and the elongation of the transverse profile of the pump beam in the angle tuning plane of the FA-OPO reduces the rate of change of the overlap between the pumped volume in the crystal and the resonated and non-resonated wave mode volumes as the pump beam angle is changed. A folded mirror set relays the pivot point for beam steering from a beam deflector to the center of the FA-OPO crystal. This reduces the footprint of the device by as much as a factor of two over that obtained when using the refractive telescope design.

Quantifying parametric uncertainty in the Rothermel model

Treesearch

S. Goodrick

2008-01-01

The purpose of the present work is to quantify parametric uncertainty in the Rothermel wildland fire spreadmodel (implemented in software such as fire spread models in the United States. This model consists of a non-linear system of equations that relates environmentalvariables (input parameter groups...

Simulation of parametric model towards the fixed covariate of right censored lung cancer data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti; Asrul Affendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Ridwan Olaniran, Oyebayo; Enera Amran, Syahila

2017-09-01

In this study, simulation procedure was applied to measure the fixed covariate of right censored data by using parametric survival model. The scale and shape parameter were modified to differentiate the analysis of parametric regression survival model. Statistically, the biases, mean biases and the coverage probability were used in this analysis. Consequently, different sample sizes were employed to distinguish the impact of parametric regression model towards right censored data with 50, 100, 150 and 200 number of sample. R-statistical software was utilised to develop the coding simulation with right censored data. Besides, the final model of right censored simulation was compared with the right censored lung cancer data in Malaysia. It was found that different values of shape and scale parameter with different sample size, help to improve the simulation strategy for right censored data and Weibull regression survival model is suitable fit towards the simulation of survival of lung cancer patients data in Malaysia.

Parametric modeling studies of turbulent non-premixed jet flames with thin reaction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Haifeng

2013-11-01

The Sydney piloted jet flame series (Flames L, B, and M) feature thinner reaction zones and hence impose greater challenges to modeling than the Sanida Piloted jet flames (Flames D, E, and F). Recently, the Sydney flames received renewed interest due to these challenges. Several new modeling efforts have emerged. However, no systematic parametric modeling studies have been reported for the Sydney flames. A large set of modeling computations of the Sydney flames is presented here by using the coupled large eddy simulation (LES)/probability density function (PDF) method. Parametric studies are performed to gain insight into the model performance, its sensitivity and the effect of numerics.

On parametrized cold dense matter equation-of-state inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Thomas E.; Raaijmakers, Geert; Watts, Anna L.

2018-07-01

Constraining the equation of state of cold dense matter in compact stars is a major science goal for observing programmes being conducted using X-ray, radio, and gravitational wave telescopes. We discuss Bayesian hierarchical inference of parametrized dense matter equations of state. In particular, we generalize and examine two inference paradigms from the literature: (i) direct posterior equation-of-state parameter estimation, conditioned on observations of a set of rotating compact stars; and (ii) indirect parameter estimation, via transformation of an intermediary joint posterior distribution of exterior spacetime parameters (such as gravitational masses and coordinate equatorial radii). We conclude that the former paradigm is not only tractable for large-scale analyses, but is principled and flexible from a Bayesian perspective while the latter paradigm is not. The thematic problem of Bayesian prior definition emerges as the crux of the difference between these paradigms. The second paradigm should in general only be considered as an ill-defined approach to the problem of utilizing archival posterior constraints on exterior spacetime parameters; we advocate for an alternative approach whereby such information is repurposed as an approximative likelihood function. We also discuss why conditioning on a piecewise-polytropic equation-of-state model - currently standard in the field of dense matter study - can easily violate conditions required for transformation of a probability density distribution between spaces of exterior (spacetime) and interior (source matter) parameters.

Parametric estimation for reinforced concrete relief shelter for Aceh cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atthaillah; Saputra, Eri; Iqbal, Muhammad

2018-05-01

This paper was a work in progress (WIP) to discover a rapid parametric framework for post-disaster permanent shelter’s materials estimation. The intended shelters were reinforced concrete construction with bricks as its wall. Inevitably, in post-disaster cases, design variations were needed to help suited victims condition. It seemed impossible to satisfy a beneficiary with a satisfactory design utilizing the conventional method. This study offered a parametric framework to overcome slow construction-materials estimation issue against design variations. Further, this work integrated parametric tool, which was Grasshopper to establish algorithms that simultaneously model, visualize, calculate and write the calculated data to a spreadsheet in a real-time. Some customized Grasshopper components were created using GHPython scripting for a more optimized algorithm. The result from this study was a partial framework that successfully performed modeling, visualization, calculation and writing the calculated data simultaneously. It meant design alterations did not escalate time needed for modeling, visualization, and material estimation. Further, the future development of the parametric framework will be made open source.

Visual aftereffects and sensory nonlinearities from a single statistical framework

PubMed Central

Laparra, Valero; Malo, Jesús

2015-01-01

When adapted to a particular scenery our senses may fool us: colors are misinterpreted, certain spatial patterns seem to fade out, and static objects appear to move in reverse. A mere empirical description of the mechanisms tuned to color, texture, and motion may tell us where these visual illusions come from. However, such empirical models of gain control do not explain why these mechanisms work in this apparently dysfunctional manner. Current normative explanations of aftereffects based on scene statistics derive gain changes by (1) invoking decorrelation and linear manifold matching/equalization, or (2) using nonlinear divisive normalization obtained from parametric scene models. These principled approaches have different drawbacks: the first is not compatible with the known saturation nonlinearities in the sensors and it cannot fully accomplish information maximization due to its linear nature. In the second, gain change is almost determined a priori by the assumed parametric image model linked to divisive normalization. In this study we show that both the response changes that lead to aftereffects and the nonlinear behavior can be simultaneously derived from a single statistical framework: the Sequential Principal Curves Analysis (SPCA). As opposed to mechanistic models, SPCA is not intended to describe how physiological sensors work, but it is focused on explaining why they behave as they do. Nonparametric SPCA has two key advantages as a normative model of adaptation: (i) it is better than linear techniques as it is a flexible equalization that can be tuned for more sensible criteria other than plain decorrelation (either full information maximization or error minimization); and (ii) it makes no a priori functional assumption regarding the nonlinearity, so the saturations emerge directly from the scene data and the goal (and not from the assumed function). It turns out that the optimal responses derived from these more sensible criteria and SPCA are consistent with dysfunctional behaviors such as aftereffects. PMID:26528165

Geometric Model for a Parametric Study of the Blended-Wing-Body Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mastin, C. Wayne; Smith, Robert E.; Sadrehaghighi, Ideen; Wiese, Micharl R.

1996-01-01

A parametric model is presented for the blended-wing-body airplane, one concept being proposed for the next generation of large subsonic transports. The model is defined in terms of a small set of parameters which facilitates analysis and optimization during the conceptual design process. The model is generated from a preliminary CAD geometry. From this geometry, airfoil cross sections are cut at selected locations and fitted with analytic curves. The airfoils are then used as boundaries for surfaces defined as the solution of partial differential equations. Both the airfoil curves and the surfaces are generated with free parameters selected to give a good representation of the original geometry. The original surface is compared with the parametric model, and solutions of the Euler equations for compressible flow are computed for both geometries. The parametric model is a good approximation of the CAD model and the computed solutions are qualitatively similar. An optimal NURBS approximation is constructed and can be used by a CAD model for further refinement or modification of the original geometry.

Non-parametric wall model and methods of identifying boundary conditions for moments in gas flow equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Meng; To, Quy-Dong; Léonard, Céline; Monchiet, Vincent

2018-03-01

In this paper, we use the molecular dynamics simulation method to study gas-wall boundary conditions. Discrete scattering information of gas molecules at the wall surface is obtained from collision simulations. The collision data can be used to identify the accommodation coefficients for parametric wall models such as Maxwell and Cercignani-Lampis scattering kernels. Since these scattering kernels are based on a limited number of accommodation coefficients, we adopt non-parametric statistical methods to construct the kernel to overcome these issues. Different from parametric kernels, the non-parametric kernels require no parameter (i.e. accommodation coefficients) and no predefined distribution. We also propose approaches to derive directly the Navier friction and Kapitza thermal resistance coefficients as well as other interface coefficients associated with moment equations from the non-parametric kernels. The methods are applied successfully to systems composed of CH4 or CO2 and graphite, which are of interest to the petroleum industry.

Maximum Marginal Likelihood Estimation of a Monotonic Polynomial Generalized Partial Credit Model with Applications to Multiple Group Analysis.

PubMed

Falk, Carl F; Cai, Li

2016-06-01

We present a semi-parametric approach to estimating item response functions (IRF) useful when the true IRF does not strictly follow commonly used functions. Our approach replaces the linear predictor of the generalized partial credit model with a monotonic polynomial. The model includes the regular generalized partial credit model at the lowest order polynomial. Our approach extends Liang's (A semi-parametric approach to estimate IRFs, Unpublished doctoral dissertation, 2007) method for dichotomous item responses to the case of polytomous data. Furthermore, item parameter estimation is implemented with maximum marginal likelihood using the Bock-Aitkin EM algorithm, thereby facilitating multiple group analyses useful in operational settings. Our approach is demonstrated on both educational and psychological data. We present simulation results comparing our approach to more standard IRF estimation approaches and other non-parametric and semi-parametric alternatives.

The influence of a time-varying least squares parametric model when estimating SFOAEs evoked with swept-frequency tones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajicek, Joshua J.; Selesnick, Ivan W.; Henin, Simon; Talmadge, Carrick L.; Long, Glenis R.

2018-05-01

Stimulus frequency otoacoustic emissions (SFOAEs) were evoked and estimated using swept-frequency tones with and without the use of swept suppressor tones. SFOAEs were estimated using a least-squares fitting procedure. The estimated SFOAEs for the two paradigms (with- and without-suppression) were similar in amplitude and phase. The fitting procedure minimizes the square error between a parametric model of total ear-canal pressure (with unknown amplitudes and phases) and ear-canal pressure acquired during each paradigm. Modifying the parametric model to allow SFOAE amplitude and phase to vary over time revealed additional amplitude and phase fine structure in the without-suppressor, but not the with-suppressor paradigm. The use of a time-varying parametric model to estimate SFOAEs without-suppression may provide additional information about cochlear mechanics not available when using a with-suppressor paradigm.

Parametrization of Stillinger-Weber potential based on valence force field model: application to single-layer MoS2 and black phosphorus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Jin-Wu

2015-08-01

We propose parametrizing the Stillinger-Weber potential for covalent materials starting from the valence force-field model. All geometrical parameters in the Stillinger-Weber potential are determined analytically according to the equilibrium condition for each individual potential term, while the energy parameters are derived from the valence force-field model. This parametrization approach transfers the accuracy of the valence force field model to the Stillinger-Weber potential. Furthermore, the resulting Stilliinger-Weber potential supports stable molecular dynamics simulations, as each potential term is at an energy-minimum state separately at the equilibrium configuration. We employ this procedure to parametrize Stillinger-Weber potentials for single-layer MoS2 and black phosphorous. The obtained Stillinger-Weber potentials predict an accurate phonon spectrum and mechanical behaviors. We also provide input scripts of these Stillinger-Weber potentials used by publicly available simulation packages including GULP and LAMMPS.

Parametrization of Stillinger-Weber potential based on valence force field model: application to single-layer MoS2 and black phosphorus.

PubMed

Jiang, Jin-Wu

2015-08-07

We propose parametrizing the Stillinger-Weber potential for covalent materials starting from the valence force-field model. All geometrical parameters in the Stillinger-Weber potential are determined analytically according to the equilibrium condition for each individual potential term, while the energy parameters are derived from the valence force-field model. This parametrization approach transfers the accuracy of the valence force field model to the Stillinger-Weber potential. Furthermore, the resulting Stilliinger-Weber potential supports stable molecular dynamics simulations, as each potential term is at an energy-minimum state separately at the equilibrium configuration. We employ this procedure to parametrize Stillinger-Weber potentials for single-layer MoS2 and black phosphorous. The obtained Stillinger-Weber potentials predict an accurate phonon spectrum and mechanical behaviors. We also provide input scripts of these Stillinger-Weber potentials used by publicly available simulation packages including GULP and LAMMPS.

Parametric instabilities of rotor-support systems with application to industrial ventilators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parszewski, Z.; Krodkiemski, T.; Marynowski, K.

1980-01-01

Rotor support systems interaction with parametric excitation is considered for both unequal principal shaft stiffness (generators) and offset disc rotors (ventilators). Instability regions and types of instability are computed in the first case, and parametric resonances in the second case. Computed and experimental results are compared for laboratory machine models. A field case study of parametric vibrations in industrial ventilators is reported. Computed parametric resonances are confirmed in field measurements, and some industrial failures are explained. Also the dynamic influence and gyroscopic effect of supporting structures are shown and computed.

Parametric robust control and system identification: Unified approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keel, Leehyun

1994-01-01

Despite significant advancement in the area of robust parametric control, the problem of synthesizing such a controller is still a wide open problem. Thus, we attempt to give a solution to this important problem. Our approach captures the parametric uncertainty as an H(sub infinity) unstructured uncertainty so that H(sub infinity) synthesis techniques are applicable. Although the techniques cannot cope with the exact parametric uncertainty, they give a reasonable guideline to model the unstructured uncertainty that contains the parametric uncertainty. An additional loop shaping technique is also introduced to relax its conservatism.

Cardiac-gated parametric images from 82 Rb PET from dynamic frames and direct 4D reconstruction.

PubMed

Germino, Mary; Carson, Richard E

2018-02-01

Cardiac perfusion PET data can be reconstructed as a dynamic sequence and kinetic modeling performed to quantify myocardial blood flow, or reconstructed as static gated images to quantify function. Parametric images from dynamic PET are conventionally not gated, to allow use of all events with lower noise. An alternative method for dynamic PET is to incorporate the kinetic model into the reconstruction algorithm itself, bypassing the generation of a time series of emission images and directly producing parametric images. So-called "direct reconstruction" can produce parametric images with lower noise than the conventional method because the noise distribution is more easily modeled in projection space than in image space. In this work, we develop direct reconstruction of cardiac-gated parametric images for 82 Rb PET with an extension of the Parametric Motion compensation OSEM List mode Algorithm for Resolution-recovery reconstruction for the one tissue model (PMOLAR-1T). PMOLAR-1T was extended to accommodate model terms to account for spillover from the left and right ventricles into the myocardium. The algorithm was evaluated on a 4D simulated 82 Rb dataset, including a perfusion defect, as well as a human 82 Rb list mode acquisition. The simulated list mode was subsampled into replicates, each with counts comparable to one gate of a gated acquisition. Parametric images were produced by the indirect (separate reconstructions and modeling) and direct methods for each of eight low-count and eight normal-count replicates of the simulated data, and each of eight cardiac gates for the human data. For the direct method, two initialization schemes were tested: uniform initialization, and initialization with the filtered iteration 1 result of the indirect method. For the human dataset, event-by-event respiratory motion compensation was included. The indirect and direct methods were compared for the simulated dataset in terms of bias and coefficient of variation as a function of iteration. Convergence of direct reconstruction was slow with uniform initialization; lower bias was achieved in fewer iterations by initializing with the filtered indirect iteration 1 images. For most parameters and regions evaluated, the direct method achieved the same or lower absolute bias at matched iteration as the indirect method, with 23%-65% lower noise. Additionally, the direct method gave better contrast between the perfusion defect and surrounding normal tissue than the indirect method. Gated parametric images from the human dataset had comparable relative performance of indirect and direct, in terms of mean parameter values per iteration. Changes in myocardial wall thickness and blood pool size across gates were readily visible in the gated parametric images, with higher contrast between myocardium and left ventricle blood pool in parametric images than gated SUV images. Direct reconstruction can produce parametric images with less noise than the indirect method, opening the potential utility of gated parametric imaging for perfusion PET. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

The influence of vegetation height heterogeneity on forest and woodland bird species richness across the United States.

PubMed

Huang, Qiongyu; Swatantran, Anu; Dubayah, Ralph; Goetz, Scott J

2014-01-01

Avian diversity is under increasing pressures. It is thus critical to understand the ecological variables that contribute to large scale spatial distribution of avian species diversity. Traditionally, studies have relied primarily on two-dimensional habitat structure to model broad scale species richness. Vegetation vertical structure is increasingly used at local scales. However, the spatial arrangement of vegetation height has never been taken into consideration. Our goal was to examine the efficacies of three-dimensional forest structure, particularly the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation height in improving avian richness models across forested ecoregions in the U.S. We developed novel habitat metrics to characterize the spatial arrangement of vegetation height using the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset for the year 2000 (NBCD). The height-structured metrics were compared with other habitat metrics for statistical association with richness of three forest breeding bird guilds across Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) routes: a broadly grouped woodland guild, and two forest breeding guilds with preferences for forest edge and for interior forest. Parametric and non-parametric models were built to examine the improvement of predictability. Height-structured metrics had the strongest associations with species richness, yielding improved predictive ability for the woodland guild richness models (r(2) = ∼ 0.53 for the parametric models, 0.63 the non-parametric models) and the forest edge guild models (r(2) = ∼ 0.34 for the parametric models, 0.47 the non-parametric models). All but one of the linear models incorporating height-structured metrics showed significantly higher adjusted-r2 values than their counterparts without additional metrics. The interior forest guild richness showed a consistent low association with height-structured metrics. Our results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of forest bird species. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness.

The Influence of Vegetation Height Heterogeneity on Forest and Woodland Bird Species Richness across the United States

PubMed Central

Huang, Qiongyu; Swatantran, Anu; Dubayah, Ralph; Goetz, Scott J.

2014-01-01

Avian diversity is under increasing pressures. It is thus critical to understand the ecological variables that contribute to large scale spatial distribution of avian species diversity. Traditionally, studies have relied primarily on two-dimensional habitat structure to model broad scale species richness. Vegetation vertical structure is increasingly used at local scales. However, the spatial arrangement of vegetation height has never been taken into consideration. Our goal was to examine the efficacies of three-dimensional forest structure, particularly the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation height in improving avian richness models across forested ecoregions in the U.S. We developed novel habitat metrics to characterize the spatial arrangement of vegetation height using the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset for the year 2000 (NBCD). The height-structured metrics were compared with other habitat metrics for statistical association with richness of three forest breeding bird guilds across Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) routes: a broadly grouped woodland guild, and two forest breeding guilds with preferences for forest edge and for interior forest. Parametric and non-parametric models were built to examine the improvement of predictability. Height-structured metrics had the strongest associations with species richness, yielding improved predictive ability for the woodland guild richness models (r2 = ∼0.53 for the parametric models, 0.63 the non-parametric models) and the forest edge guild models (r2 = ∼0.34 for the parametric models, 0.47 the non-parametric models). All but one of the linear models incorporating height-structured metrics showed significantly higher adjusted-r2 values than their counterparts without additional metrics. The interior forest guild richness showed a consistent low association with height-structured metrics. Our results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of forest bird species. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. PMID:25101782

The Impact of Three-Dimensional Effects on the Simulation of Turbulence Kinetic Energy in a Major Alpine Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goger, Brigitta; Rotach, Mathias W.; Gohm, Alexander; Fuhrer, Oliver; Stiperski, Ivana; Holtslag, Albert A. M.

2018-02-01

The correct simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is crucial for reliable weather forecasts in truly complex terrain. However, common assumptions for model parametrizations are only valid for horizontally homogeneous and flat terrain. Here, we evaluate the turbulence parametrization of the numerical weather prediction model COSMO with a horizontal grid spacing of Δ x = 1.1 km for the Inn Valley, Austria. The long-term, high-resolution turbulence measurements of the i-Box measurement sites provide a useful data pool of the ABL structure in the valley and on slopes. We focus on days and nights when ABL processes dominate and a thermally-driven circulation is present. Simulations are performed for case studies with both a one-dimensional turbulence parametrization, which only considers the vertical turbulent exchange, and a hybrid turbulence parametrization, also including horizontal shear production and advection in the budget of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE). We find a general underestimation of TKE by the model with the one-dimensional turbulence parametrization. In the simulations with the hybrid turbulence parametrization, the modelled TKE has a more realistic structure, especially in situations when the TKE production is dominated by shear related to the afternoon up-valley flow, and during nights, when a stable ABL is present. The model performance also improves for stations on the slopes. An estimation of the horizontal shear production from the observation network suggests that three-dimensional effects are a relevant part of TKE production in the valley.

The Impact of Three-Dimensional Effects on the Simulation of Turbulence Kinetic Energy in a Major Alpine Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goger, Brigitta; Rotach, Mathias W.; Gohm, Alexander; Fuhrer, Oliver; Stiperski, Ivana; Holtslag, Albert A. M.

2018-07-01

The correct simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is crucial for reliable weather forecasts in truly complex terrain. However, common assumptions for model parametrizations are only valid for horizontally homogeneous and flat terrain. Here, we evaluate the turbulence parametrization of the numerical weather prediction model COSMO with a horizontal grid spacing of Δ x = 1.1 km for the Inn Valley, Austria. The long-term, high-resolution turbulence measurements of the i-Box measurement sites provide a useful data pool of the ABL structure in the valley and on slopes. We focus on days and nights when ABL processes dominate and a thermally-driven circulation is present. Simulations are performed for case studies with both a one-dimensional turbulence parametrization, which only considers the vertical turbulent exchange, and a hybrid turbulence parametrization, also including horizontal shear production and advection in the budget of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE). We find a general underestimation of TKE by the model with the one-dimensional turbulence parametrization. In the simulations with the hybrid turbulence parametrization, the modelled TKE has a more realistic structure, especially in situations when the TKE production is dominated by shear related to the afternoon up-valley flow, and during nights, when a stable ABL is present. The model performance also improves for stations on the slopes. An estimation of the horizontal shear production from the observation network suggests that three-dimensional effects are a relevant part of TKE production in the valley.

EWB: The Environment WorkBench Version 4.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

The Environment WorkBench EWB is a desktop integrated analysis tool for studying a spacecraft's interactions with its environment. Over 100 environment and analysis models are integrated into the menu-based tool. EWB, which was developed for and under the guidance of the NASA Lewis Research Center, is built atop the Module Integrator and Rule-based Intelligent Analytic Database (MIRIAD) architecture. This allows every module in EWB to communicate information to other modules in a transparent manner from the user's point of view. It removes the tedious and error-prone steps of entering data by hand from one model to another. EWB runs under UNIX operating systems (SGI and SUN workstations) and under MS Windows (3.x, 95, and NT) operating systems. MIRIAD, the unique software that makes up the core of EWB, provides the flexibility to easily modify old models and incorporate new ones as user needs change. The MIRIAD approach separates the computer assisted engineering (CAE) tool into three distinct units: 1) A modern graphical user interface to present information; 2) A data dictionary interpreter to coordinate analysis; and 3) A database for storing system designs and analysis results. The user interface is externally programmable through ASCII data files, which contain the location and type of information to be displayed on the screen. This approach provides great flexibility in tailoring the look and feel of the code to individual user needs. MIRIADbased applications, such as EWB, have utilities for viewing tabulated parametric study data, XY line plots, contour plots, and three-dimensional plots of contour data and system geometries. In addition, a Monte Carlo facility is provided to allow statistical assessments (including uncertainties) in models or data.

Stable elastic knots with no self-contact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moulton, Derek E.; Grandgeorge, Paul; Neukirch, Sébastien

2018-07-01

We study an elastic rod bent into an open trefoil knot and clamped at both ends. The question we consider is whether there are stable configurations for which there are no points of self-contact. This idea can be fairly easily replicated with a thin strip of paper, but is more difficult or even impossible with a flexible wire. We search for such configurations within the space of three tuning parameters related to the degrees of freedom in a simple experiment. Mathematically, we show, both within standard Kirchhoff theory as well within an elastic strip theory, that stable and contact-free knotted configurations can be found, and we classify the corresponding parametric regions. Numerical results are complemented with an asymptotic analysis that demonstrates the presence of knots near the doubly-covered ring. In the case of the strip model, quantitative experiments of the region of good knots are also provided to validate the theory.

Determinants of gender differences in health among the elderly in Latin America.

PubMed

Trujillo, Antonio J; Mroz, Thomas A; Piras, Claudia; Vernon, John A; Angeles, Gustavo

2010-01-01

This paper identifies the main gender differences in health and socio-economic characteristics of the elderly in four Latin American cities. Using locally weighted regressions as well as a flexible model specification that treats age non-parametrically, we investigate whether these unadjusted gender gaps in health are due to gender differences in the distribution of age and other explanatory variables. Interestingly, for all cities, the analyses show a gender gap in health in favour of males at each age. The gaps are larger when one uses functional impairment in mobility and personal self-care as indicators of an individual's health instead of self-reported health. Furthermore, controlling for demographic characteristics, baseline health and the availability of family support do little to change the disadvantage for women in measured health outcomes. Controlling for socio-economic variables does, however, reduce most of the gender differences in health.

A Study on the Thermomechanical Reliability Risks of Through-Silicon-Vias in Sensor Applications

PubMed Central

Shao, Shuai; Liu, Dapeng; Niu, Yuling; O’Donnell, Kathy; Sengupta, Dipak; Park, Seungbae

2017-01-01

Reliability risks for two different types of through-silicon-vias (TSVs) are discussed in this paper. The first is a partially-filled copper TSV, if which the copper layer covers the side walls and bottom. A polymer is used to fill the rest of the cavity. Stresses in risk sites are studied and ranked for this TSV structure by FEA modeling. Parametric studies for material properties (modulus and thermal expansion) of TSV polymer are performed. The second type is a high aspect ratio TSV filled by polycrystalline silicon (poly Si). Potential risks of the voids in the poly Si due to filling defects are studied. Fracture mechanics methods are utilized to evaluate the risk for two different assembly conditions: package assembled to printed circuit board (PCB) and package assembled to flexible substrate. The effect of board/substrate/die thickness and the size and location of the void are discussed. PMID:28208758

A planar comparison of actuators for vibration control of flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, William W.; Robertshaw, Harry H.; Warrington, Thomas J.

1989-01-01

The methods and results of an analytical study comparing the effectiveness of four actuators in damping the vibrations of a planar clamped-free beam are presented. The actuators studied are two inertia-type actuators, the proof mass and reaction wheel, and two variable geometry trusses, the planar truss and the planar truss proof mass (a combination variable geometry truss/inertia-type actuator). Actuator parameters used in the models were chosen based on the results of a parametric study. A full-state, LQR optimal feedback control law was used for control in each system. Numerical simulations of each beam/actuator system were performed in response to initial condition inputs. These simulations provided information such as time response of the closed-loop system and damping provided to the beam. This information can be used to determine the 'best' actuator for a given purpose.

Model Robust Calibration: Method and Application to Electronically-Scanned Pressure Transducers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Eric L.; Starnes, B. Alden; Birch, Jeffery B.; Mays, James E.

2010-01-01

This article presents the application of a recently developed statistical regression method to the controlled instrument calibration problem. The statistical method of Model Robust Regression (MRR), developed by Mays, Birch, and Starnes, is shown to improve instrument calibration by reducing the reliance of the calibration on a predetermined parametric (e.g. polynomial, exponential, logarithmic) model. This is accomplished by allowing fits from the predetermined parametric model to be augmented by a certain portion of a fit to the residuals from the initial regression using a nonparametric (locally parametric) regression technique. The method is demonstrated for the absolute scale calibration of silicon-based pressure transducers.

Choice Inconsistencies among the Elderly: Evidence from Plan Choice in the Medicare Part D Program: Reply

PubMed Central

ABALUCK, JASON

2017-01-01

We explore the in- and out- of sample robustness of tests for choice inconsistencies based on parameter restrictions in parametric models, focusing on tests proposed by Ketcham, Kuminoff and Powers (KKP). We argue that their non-parametric alternatives are inherently conservative with respect to detecting mistakes. We then show that our parametric model is robust to KKP’s suggested specification checks, and that comprehensive goodness of fit measures perform better with our model than the expected utility model. Finally, we explore the robustness of our 2011 results to alternative normative assumptions highlighting the role of brand fixed effects and unobservable characteristics. PMID:29170561

Nonrelativistic approaches derived from point-coupling relativistic models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lourenco, O.; Dutra, M.; Delfino, A.

2010-03-15

We construct nonrelativistic versions of relativistic nonlinear hadronic point-coupling models, based on new normalized spinor wave functions after small component reduction. These expansions give us energy density functionals that can be compared to their relativistic counterparts. We show that the agreement between the nonrelativistic limit approach and the Skyrme parametrizations becomes strongly dependent on the incompressibility of each model. We also show that the particular case A=B=0 (Walecka model) leads to the same energy density functional of the Skyrme parametrizations SV and ZR2, while the truncation scheme, up to order {rho}{sup 3}, leads to parametrizations for which {sigma}=1.

QUANTIFYING ALTERNATIVE SPLICING FROM PAIRED-END RNA-SEQUENCING DATA.

PubMed

Rossell, David; Stephan-Otto Attolini, Camille; Kroiss, Manuel; Stöcker, Almond

2014-03-01

RNA-sequencing has revolutionized biomedical research and, in particular, our ability to study gene alternative splicing. The problem has important implications for human health, as alternative splicing may be involved in malfunctions at the cellular level and multiple diseases. However, the high-dimensional nature of the data and the existence of experimental biases pose serious data analysis challenges. We find that the standard data summaries used to study alternative splicing are severely limited, as they ignore a substantial amount of valuable information. Current data analysis methods are based on such summaries and are hence sub-optimal. Further, they have limited flexibility in accounting for technical biases. We propose novel data summaries and a Bayesian modeling framework that overcome these limitations and determine biases in a non-parametric, highly flexible manner. These summaries adapt naturally to the rapid improvements in sequencing technology. We provide efficient point estimates and uncertainty assessments. The approach allows to study alternative splicing patterns for individual samples and can also be the basis for downstream analyses. We found a several fold improvement in estimation mean square error compared popular approaches in simulations, and substantially higher consistency between replicates in experimental data. Our findings indicate the need for adjusting the routine summarization and analysis of alternative splicing RNA-seq studies. We provide a software implementation in the R package casper.

Increasing Flexibility in Energy Code Compliance: Performance Packages

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hart, Philip R.; Rosenberg, Michael I.

Energy codes and standards have provided significant increases in building efficiency over the last 38 years, since the first national energy code was published in late 1975. The most commonly used path in energy codes, the prescriptive path, appears to be reaching a point of diminishing returns. As the code matures, the prescriptive path becomes more complicated, and also more restrictive. It is likely that an approach that considers the building as an integrated system will be necessary to achieve the next real gains in building efficiency. Performance code paths are increasing in popularity; however, there remains a significant designmore » team overhead in following the performance path, especially for smaller buildings. This paper focuses on development of one alternative format, prescriptive packages. A method to develop building-specific prescriptive packages is reviewed based on a multiple runs of prototypical building models that are used to develop parametric decision analysis to determines a set of packages with equivalent energy performance. The approach is designed to be cost-effective and flexible for the design team while achieving a desired level of energy efficiency performance. A demonstration of the approach based on mid-sized office buildings with two HVAC system types is shown along with a discussion of potential applicability in the energy code process.« less

CuBe: parametric modeling of 3D foveal shape using cubic Bézier

PubMed Central

Yadav, Sunil Kumar; Motamedi, Seyedamirhosein; Oberwahrenbrock, Timm; Oertel, Frederike Cosima; Polthier, Konrad; Paul, Friedemann; Kadas, Ella Maria; Brandt, Alexander U.

2017-01-01

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) allows three-dimensional (3D) imaging of the retina, and is commonly used for assessing pathological changes of fovea and macula in many diseases. Many neuroinflammatory conditions are known to cause modifications to the fovea shape. In this paper, we propose a method for parametric modeling of the foveal shape. Our method exploits invariant features of the macula from OCT data and applies a cubic Bézier polynomial along with a least square optimization to produce a best fit parametric model of the fovea. Additionally, we provide several parameters of the foveal shape based on the proposed 3D parametric modeling. Our quantitative and visual results show that the proposed model is not only able to reconstruct important features from the foveal shape, but also produces less error compared to the state-of-the-art methods. Finally, we apply the model in a comparison of healthy control eyes and eyes from patients with neuroinflammatory central nervous system disorders and optic neuritis, and show that several derived model parameters show significant differences between the two groups. PMID:28966857

Model Adaptation in Parametric Space for POD-Galerkin Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Haotian; Wei, Mingjun

2017-11-01

The development of low-order POD-Galerkin models is largely motivated by the expectation to use the model developed with a set of parameters at their native values to predict the dynamic behaviors of the same system under different parametric values, in other words, a successful model adaptation in parametric space. However, most of time, even small deviation of parameters from their original value may lead to large deviation or unstable results. It has been shown that adding more information (e.g. a steady state, mean value of a different unsteady state, or an entire different set of POD modes) may improve the prediction of flow with other parametric states. For a simple case of the flow passing a fixed cylinder, an orthogonal mean mode at a different Reynolds number may stabilize the POD-Galerkin model when Reynolds number is changed. For a more complicated case of the flow passing an oscillatory cylinder, a global POD-Galerkin model is first applied to handle the moving boundaries, then more information (e.g. more POD modes) is required to predicate the flow under different oscillatory frequencies. Supported by ARL.

Parametric, nonparametric and parametric modelling of a chaotic circuit time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmer, J.; Rust, H.; Horbelt, W.; Voss, H. U.

2000-09-01

The determination of a differential equation underlying a measured time series is a frequently arising task in nonlinear time series analysis. In the validation of a proposed model one often faces the dilemma that it is hard to decide whether possible discrepancies between the time series and model output are caused by an inappropriate model or by bad estimates of parameters in a correct type of model, or both. We propose a combination of parametric modelling based on Bock's multiple shooting algorithm and nonparametric modelling based on optimal transformations as a strategy to test proposed models and if rejected suggest and test new ones. We exemplify this strategy on an experimental time series from a chaotic circuit where we obtain an extremely accurate reconstruction of the observed attractor.

Analysis of Parametric Adaptive Signal Detection with Applications to Radars and Hyperspectral Imaging

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-01

98 8.4.5 Training Screening ............................. .................................................................99 8.5 Experimental...associated with the proposed parametric model. Several im- portant issues are discussed, including model order selection, training screening , and time...parameters associated with the NS-AR model. In addition, we develop model order selection, training screening , and time-series based whitening and

The application of dual fuel /JP-LH2/ for hypersonic cruise vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weidner, J. P.

1978-01-01

The possibility of utilizing jet fuel (JP) stored primarily in the wings of hydrogen-fueled hypersonic cruise vehicles has been evaluated and compared to the performance of all hydrogen-fueled aircraft. Parametric investigations of wing loading, thrust-to-weight ratio, payload size and vehicle size are presented. Results indicate improvements in performance for a wide range of potential payload sizes, particularly when in-flight refueling of the JP fuel is considered as a means of increasing range and mission flexibility.

Development and analysis of a modular approach to payload specialist training. [training of spacecrews for Spacelab

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watters, H.; Steadman, J.

1976-01-01

A modular training approach for Spacelab payload crews is described. Representative missions are defined for training requirements analysis, training hardware, and simulations. Training times are projected for each experiment of each representative flight. A parametric analysis of the various flights defines resource requirements for a modular training facility at different flight frequencies. The modular approach is believed to be more flexible, time saving, and economical than previous single high fidelity trainer concepts. Block diagrams of training programs are shown.

Evaluation of a low-cost, 3D-printed model for bronchoscopy training.

PubMed

Parotto, Matteo; Jiansen, Joshua Qua; AboTaiban, Ahmed; Ioukhova, Svetlana; Agzamov, Alisher; Cooper, Richard; O'Leary, Gerald; Meineri, Massimiliano

2017-01-01

Flexible bronchoscopy is a fundamental procedure in anaesthesia and critical care medicine. Although learning this procedure is a complex task, the use of simulation-based training provides significant advantages, such as enhanced patient safety. Access to bronchoscopy simulators may be limited in low-resource settings. We have developed a low-cost 3D-printed bronchoscopy training model. A parametric airway model was obtained from an online medical model repository and fabricated using a low-cost 3D printer. The participating physicians had no prior bronchoscopy experience. Participants received a 30-minute lecture on flexible bronchoscopy and were administered a 15-item pre-test questionnaire on bronchoscopy. Afterwards, participants were instructed to perform a series of predetermined bronchoscopy tasks on the 3D printed simulator on 4 consecutive occasions. The time needed to perform the tasks and the quality of task performance (identification of bronchial anatomy, technique, dexterity, lack of trauma) were recorded. Upon completion of the simulator tests, participants were administered the 15-item questionnaire (post-test) once again. Participant satisfaction data on the perceived usefulness and accuracy of the 3D model were collected. A statistical analysis was performed using the t-test. Data are reported as mean values (± standard deviation). The time needed to complete all tasks was 152.9 ± 71.5 sec on the 1st attempt vs. 98.7 ± 40.3 sec on the 4th attempt (P = 0.03). Likewise, the quality of performance score improved from 8.3 ± 6.7 to 18.2 ± 2.5 (P < 0.0001). The average number of correct answers in the questionnaire was 6.8 ± 1.9 pre-test and 13.3 ± 3.1 post-test (P < 0.0001). Participants reported a high level of satisfaction with the perceived usefulness and accuracy of the model. We developed a 3D-printed model for bronchoscopy training. This model improved trainee performance and may represent a valid, low-cost bronchoscopy training tool.

Integrating surrogate models into subsurface simulation framework allows computation of complex reactive transport scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lucia, Marco; Kempka, Thomas; Jatnieks, Janis; Kühn, Michael

2017-04-01

Reactive transport simulations - where geochemical reactions are coupled with hydrodynamic transport of reactants - are extremely time consuming and suffer from significant numerical issues. Given the high uncertainties inherently associated with the geochemical models, which also constitute the major computational bottleneck, such requirements may seem inappropriate and probably constitute the main limitation for their wide application. A promising way to ease and speed-up such coupled simulations is achievable employing statistical surrogates instead of "full-physics" geochemical models [1]. Data-driven surrogates are reduced models obtained on a set of pre-calculated "full physics" simulations, capturing their principal features while being extremely fast to compute. Model reduction of course comes at price of a precision loss; however, this appears justified in presence of large uncertainties regarding the parametrization of geochemical processes. This contribution illustrates the integration of surrogates into the flexible simulation framework currently being developed by the authors' research group [2]. The high level language of choice for obtaining and dealing with surrogate models is R, which profits from state-of-the-art methods for statistical analysis of large simulations ensembles. A stand-alone advective mass transport module was furthermore developed in order to add such capability to any multiphase finite volume hydrodynamic simulator within the simulation framework. We present 2D and 3D case studies benchmarking the performance of surrogates and "full physics" chemistry in scenarios pertaining the assessment of geological subsurface utilization. [1] Jatnieks, J., De Lucia, M., Dransch, D., Sips, M.: "Data-driven surrogate model approach for improving the performance of reactive transport simulations.", Energy Procedia 97, 2016, p. 447-453. [2] Kempka, T., Nakaten, B., De Lucia, M., Nakaten, N., Otto, C., Pohl, M., Chabab [Tillner], E., Kühn, M.: "Flexible Simulation Framework to Couple Processes in Complex 3D Models for Subsurface Utilization Assessment.", Energy Procedia, 97, 2016 p. 494-501.

Bayesian multivariate Poisson abundance models for T-cell receptor data.

PubMed

Greene, Joshua; Birtwistle, Marc R; Ignatowicz, Leszek; Rempala, Grzegorz A

2013-06-07

A major feature of an adaptive immune system is its ability to generate B- and T-cell clones capable of recognizing and neutralizing specific antigens. These clones recognize antigens with the help of the surface molecules, called antigen receptors, acquired individually during the clonal development process. In order to ensure a response to a broad range of antigens, the number of different receptor molecules is extremely large, resulting in a huge clonal diversity of both B- and T-cell receptor populations and making their experimental comparisons statistically challenging. To facilitate such comparisons, we propose a flexible parametric model of multivariate count data and illustrate its use in a simultaneous analysis of multiple antigen receptor populations derived from mammalian T-cells. The model relies on a representation of the observed receptor counts as a multivariate Poisson abundance mixture (m PAM). A Bayesian parameter fitting procedure is proposed, based on the complete posterior likelihood, rather than the conditional one used typically in similar settings. The new procedure is shown to be considerably more efficient than its conditional counterpart (as measured by the Fisher information) in the regions of m PAM parameter space relevant to model T-cell data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LENSED: a code for the forward reconstruction of lenses and sources from strong lensing observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessore, Nicolas; Bellagamba, Fabio; Metcalf, R. Benton

2016-12-01

Robust modelling of strong lensing systems is fundamental to exploit the information they contain about the distribution of matter in galaxies and clusters. In this work, we present LENSED, a new code which performs forward parametric modelling of strong lenses. LENSED takes advantage of a massively parallel ray-tracing kernel to perform the necessary calculations on a modern graphics processing unit (GPU). This makes the precise rendering of the background lensed sources much faster, and allows the simultaneous optimization of tens of parameters for the selected model. With a single run, the code is able to obtain the full posterior probability distribution for the lens light, the mass distribution and the background source at the same time. LENSED is first tested on mock images which reproduce realistic space-based observations of lensing systems. In this way, we show that it is able to recover unbiased estimates of the lens parameters, even when the sources do not follow exactly the assumed model. Then, we apply it to a subsample of the Sloan Lens ACS Survey lenses, in order to demonstrate its use on real data. The results generally agree with the literature, and highlight the flexibility and robustness of the algorithm.

Behavior of Industrial Steel Rack Connections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, S. N. R.; Ramli Sulong, N. H.; Khan, R.; Jumaat, M. Z.; Shariati, M.

2016-03-01

Beam-to-column connections (BCCs) used in steel pallet racks (SPRs) play a significant role to maintain the stability of rack structures in the down-aisle direction. The variety in the geometry of commercially available beam end connectors hampers the development of a generalized analytic design approach for SPR BCCs. The experimental prediction of flexibility in SPR BCCs is prohibitively expensive and difficult for all types of commercially available beam end connectors. A suitable solution to derive a particular uniform M-θ relationship for each connection type in terms of geometric parameters may be achieved through finite element (FE) modeling. This study first presents a comprehensive description of the experimental investigations that were performed and used as the calibration bases for the numerical study that constituted its main contribution. A three dimensioned (3D) non-linear finite element (FE) model was developed and calibrated against the experimental results. The FE model took into account material nonlinearities, geometrical properties and large displacements. Comparisons between numerical and experimental data for observed failure modes and M-θ relationship showed close agreement. The validated FE model was further extended to perform parametric analysis to identify the effects of various parameters which may affect the overall performance of the connection.

Influence of spatial beam inhomogeneities on the parameters of a petawatt laser system based on multi-stage parametric amplification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frolov, S A; Trunov, V I; Pestryakov, Efim V

2013-05-31

We have developed a technique for investigating the evolution of spatial inhomogeneities in high-power laser systems based on multi-stage parametric amplification. A linearised model of the inhomogeneity development is first devised for parametric amplification with the small-scale self-focusing taken into account. It is shown that the application of this model gives the results consistent (with high accuracy and in a wide range of inhomogeneity parameters) with the calculation without approximations. Using the linearised model, we have analysed the development of spatial inhomogeneities in a petawatt laser system based on multi-stage parametric amplification, developed at the Institute of Laser Physics, Siberianmore » Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ILP SB RAS). (control of laser radiation parameters)« less

Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

PubMed

Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

2017-08-21

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

Conceptual design and performance analysis of a novel flexible-valve micropump using magneto-fluid-solid interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehsani, Abbas; Nejat, Amir

2017-05-01

An electromagnetic actuated micropump with flexible sequence of valves is presented and investigated in the present article. Two flexible valves are placed inside the microchannel in order to bidirectionalize flow, employing the idea of rectifying mechanism of lymphangion in the lymphatic transport system. A time-dependent magnetic field exerts force on the soft magnetorheological elastomer (SMRE) wall, and therefore, the enclosed fluid is forced to move. The valve series are embedded in such a way that prevent flow from leaving the left terminal, and stop fluid flow entering from the right terminal. Therefore some fluid move left to right, which is called VNet. The net volume is considered as the target design for the performance of the micropump. A fully coupled time-dependent magneto-fluid-solid interaction (MFSI) simulation of two-dimensional incompressible fluid flow is conducted. The finite element method is used to solve all physics involved. Simulation results indicate capability of the proposed mechanism to propel fluid in one direction. A parametric study is performed to investigate the effect of key geometric, magnetic, and structural parameters on the net transported volume. Results show that under optimum conditions the micropump is able to transmit a net volume of fluid nearly two times more than the basic design. The final model is able to pump 0.055 (μl) of water (at 25 °C) in 1 s. The proposed micropump can operate in a wide range of applications, such as artificial organs, organ-on-chip, and aerospace applications.

Computation of the intensities of parametric holographic scattering patterns in photorefractive crystals.

PubMed

Schwalenberg, Simon

2005-06-01

The present work represents a first attempt to perform computations of output intensity distributions for different parametric holographic scattering patterns. Based on the model for parametric four-wave mixing processes in photorefractive crystals and taking into account realistic material properties, we present computed images of selected scattering patterns. We compare these calculated light distributions to the corresponding experimental observations. Our analysis is especially devoted to dark scattering patterns as they make high demands on the underlying model.

A convolution model for computing the far-field directivity of a parametric loudspeaker array.

PubMed

Shi, Chuang; Kajikawa, Yoshinobu

2015-02-01

This paper describes a method to compute the far-field directivity of a parametric loudspeaker array (PLA), whereby the steerable parametric loudspeaker can be implemented when phased array techniques are applied. The convolution of the product directivity and the Westervelt's directivity is suggested, substituting for the past practice of using the product directivity only. Computed directivity of a PLA using the proposed convolution model achieves significant improvement in agreement to measured directivity at a negligible computational cost.

Revisiting dark energy models using differential ages of galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rani, Nisha; Jain, Deepak; Mahajan, Shobhit; Mukherjee, Amitabha; Biesiada, Marek

2017-03-01

In this work, we use a test based on the differential ages of galaxies for distinguishing the dark energy models. As proposed by Jimenez and Loeb in [1], relative ages of galaxies can be used to put constraints on various cosmological parameters. In the same vein, we reconstruct H0dt/dz and its derivative (H0d2t/dz2) using a model independent technique called non-parametric smoothing. Basically, dt/dz is the change in the age of the object as a function of redshift which is directly linked with the Hubble parameter. Hence for reconstruction of this quantity, we use the most recent H(z) data. Further, we calculate H0dt/dz and its derivative for several models like Phantom, Einstein de Sitter (EdS), ΛCDM, Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization, Jassal-Bagla-Padmanabhan (JBP) parametrization and Feng-Shen-Li-Li (FSLL) parametrization. We check the consistency of these models with the results of reconstruction obtained in a model independent way from the data. It is observed that H0dt/dz as a tool is not able to distinguish between the ΛCDM, CPL, JBP and FSLL parametrizations but, as expected, EdS and Phantom models show noticeable deviation from the reconstructed results. Further, the derivative of H0dt/dz for various dark energy models is more sensitive at low redshift. It is found that the FSLL model is not consistent with the reconstructed results, however, the ΛCDM model is in concordance with the 3σ region of the reconstruction at redshift z>= 0.3.

40 CFR Appendix C to Part 75 - Missing Data Estimation Procedures

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... certification of a parametric, empirical, or process simulation method or model for calculating substitute data... available process simulation methods and models. 1.2Petition Requirements Continuously monitor, determine... desulfurization, a corresponding empirical correlation or process simulation parametric method using appropriate...

Modeling and Visualization Process of the Curve of Pen Point by GeoGebra

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aktümen, Muharem; Horzum, Tugba; Ceylan, Tuba

2013-01-01

This study describes the mathematical construction of a real-life model by means of parametric equations, as well as the two- and three-dimensional visualization of the model using the software GeoGebra. The model was initially considered as "determining the parametric equation of the curve formed on a plane by the point of a pen, positioned…

Developmental models for estimating ecological responses to environmental variability: structural, parametric, and experimental issues.

PubMed

Moore, Julia L; Remais, Justin V

2014-03-01

Developmental models that account for the metabolic effect of temperature variability on poikilotherms, such as degree-day models, have been widely used to study organism emergence, range and development, particularly in agricultural and vector-borne disease contexts. Though simple and easy to use, structural and parametric issues can influence the outputs of such models, often substantially. Because the underlying assumptions and limitations of these models have rarely been considered, this paper reviews the structural, parametric, and experimental issues that arise when using degree-day models, including the implications of particular structural or parametric choices, as well as assumptions that underlie commonly used models. Linear and non-linear developmental functions are compared, as are common methods used to incorporate temperature thresholds and calculate daily degree-days. Substantial differences in predicted emergence time arose when using linear versus non-linear developmental functions to model the emergence time in a model organism. The optimal method for calculating degree-days depends upon where key temperature threshold parameters fall relative to the daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the shape of the daily temperature curve. No method is shown to be universally superior, though one commonly used method, the daily average method, consistently provides accurate results. The sensitivity of model projections to these methodological issues highlights the need to make structural and parametric selections based on a careful consideration of the specific biological response of the organism under study, and the specific temperature conditions of the geographic regions of interest. When degree-day model limitations are considered and model assumptions met, the models can be a powerful tool for studying temperature-dependent development.

Nonparametric Residue Analysis of Dynamic PET Data With Application to Cerebral FDG Studies in Normals.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, Finbarr; Muzi, Mark; Spence, Alexander M; Mankoff, David M; O'Sullivan, Janet N; Fitzgerald, Niall; Newman, George C; Krohn, Kenneth A

2009-06-01

Kinetic analysis is used to extract metabolic information from dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) uptake data. The theory of indicator dilutions, developed in the seminal work of Meier and Zierler (1954), provides a probabilistic framework for representation of PET tracer uptake data in terms of a convolution between an arterial input function and a tissue residue. The residue is a scaled survival function associated with tracer residence in the tissue. Nonparametric inference for the residue, a deconvolution problem, provides a novel approach to kinetic analysis-critically one that is not reliant on specific compartmental modeling assumptions. A practical computational technique based on regularized cubic B-spline approximation of the residence time distribution is proposed. Nonparametric residue analysis allows formal statistical evaluation of specific parametric models to be considered. This analysis needs to properly account for the increased flexibility of the nonparametric estimator. The methodology is illustrated using data from a series of cerebral studies with PET and fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) in normal subjects. Comparisons are made between key functionals of the residue, tracer flux, flow, etc., resulting from a parametric (the standard two-compartment of Phelps et al. 1979) and a nonparametric analysis. Strong statistical evidence against the compartment model is found. Primarily these differences relate to the representation of the early temporal structure of the tracer residence-largely a function of the vascular supply network. There are convincing physiological arguments against the representations implied by the compartmental approach but this is the first time that a rigorous statistical confirmation using PET data has been reported. The compartmental analysis produces suspect values for flow but, notably, the impact on the metabolic flux, though statistically significant, is limited to deviations on the order of 3%-4%. The general advantage of the nonparametric residue analysis is the ability to provide a valid kinetic quantitation in the context of studies where there may be heterogeneity or other uncertainty about the accuracy of a compartmental model approximation of the tissue residue.

SPM analysis of parametric (R)-[11C]PK11195 binding images: plasma input versus reference tissue parametric methods.

PubMed

Schuitemaker, Alie; van Berckel, Bart N M; Kropholler, Marc A; Veltman, Dick J; Scheltens, Philip; Jonker, Cees; Lammertsma, Adriaan A; Boellaard, Ronald

2007-05-01

(R)-[11C]PK11195 has been used for quantifying cerebral microglial activation in vivo. In previous studies, both plasma input and reference tissue methods have been used, usually in combination with a region of interest (ROI) approach. Definition of ROIs, however, can be labourious and prone to interobserver variation. In addition, results are only obtained for predefined areas and (unexpected) signals in undefined areas may be missed. On the other hand, standard pharmacokinetic models are too sensitive to noise to calculate (R)-[11C]PK11195 binding on a voxel-by-voxel basis. Linearised versions of both plasma input and reference tissue models have been described, and these are more suitable for parametric imaging. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of these plasma input and reference tissue parametric methods on the outcome of statistical parametric mapping (SPM) analysis of (R)-[11C]PK11195 binding. Dynamic (R)-[11C]PK11195 PET scans with arterial blood sampling were performed in 7 younger and 11 elderly healthy subjects. Parametric images of volume of distribution (Vd) and binding potential (BP) were generated using linearised versions of plasma input (Logan) and reference tissue (Reference Parametric Mapping) models. Images were compared at the group level using SPM with a two-sample t-test per voxel, both with and without proportional scaling. Parametric BP images without scaling provided the most sensitive framework for determining differences in (R)-[11C]PK11195 binding between younger and elderly subjects. Vd images could only demonstrate differences in (R)-[11C]PK11195 binding when analysed with proportional scaling due to intersubject variation in K1/k2 (blood-brain barrier transport and non-specific binding).

Marginally specified priors for non-parametric Bayesian estimation

PubMed Central

Kessler, David C.; Hoff, Peter D.; Dunson, David B.

2014-01-01

Summary Prior specification for non-parametric Bayesian inference involves the difficult task of quantifying prior knowledge about a parameter of high, often infinite, dimension. A statistician is unlikely to have informed opinions about all aspects of such a parameter but will have real information about functionals of the parameter, such as the population mean or variance. The paper proposes a new framework for non-parametric Bayes inference in which the prior distribution for a possibly infinite dimensional parameter is decomposed into two parts: an informative prior on a finite set of functionals, and a non-parametric conditional prior for the parameter given the functionals. Such priors can be easily constructed from standard non-parametric prior distributions in common use and inherit the large support of the standard priors on which they are based. Additionally, posterior approximations under these informative priors can generally be made via minor adjustments to existing Markov chain approximation algorithms for standard non-parametric prior distributions. We illustrate the use of such priors in the context of multivariate density estimation using Dirichlet process mixture models, and in the modelling of high dimensional sparse contingency tables. PMID:25663813

An investigation of quasi-inertial attitude control for a solar power satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juang, J.-N.; Wang, S. J.

1982-01-01

An efficient means, a quasi-inertial attitude mode, is developed for maintaining the normal solar orientation of a space satellite for power collection in a synchronous orbit. Formulae are presented which establish the basic parametric properties for ideal quasi-inertial attitude and phasing. An active control system is necessary to compensate for the energy loss since energy dissipation in widely oscillating flexible bodies produces an instability of the quasi-inertial attitude in the sense that the spacecraft will tumble at the orbit rate. A fixed terminal time and state optimal control problem is formulated and an algorithm for determining the optimal control as a means for the periodical attitude and phase compensation is developed. The vehicle orientation affected by internal disturbance (structural flexibility) and external disturbances (e.g., drag forces) is maintained by a specialized controller design.

An Interactive Software for Conceptual Wing Flutter Analysis and Parametric Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek

1996-01-01

An interactive computer program was developed for wing flutter analysis in the conceptual design stage. The objective was to estimate the flutter instability boundary of a flexible cantilever wing, when well-defined structural and aerodynamic data are not available, and then study the effect of change in Mach number, dynamic pressure, torsional frequency, sweep, mass ratio, aspect ratio, taper ratio, center of gravity, and pitch inertia, to guide the development of the concept. The software was developed for Macintosh or IBM compatible personal computers, on MathCad application software with integrated documentation, graphics, data base and symbolic mathematics. The analysis method was based on non-dimensional parametric plots of two primary flutter parameters, namely Regier number and Flutter number, with normalization factors based on torsional stiffness, sweep, mass ratio, taper ratio, aspect ratio, center of gravity location and pitch inertia radius of gyration. The parametric plots were compiled in a Vought Corporation report from a vast data base of past experiments and wind-tunnel tests. The computer program was utilized for flutter analysis of the outer wing of a Blended-Wing-Body concept, proposed by McDonnell Douglas Corp. Using a set of assumed data, preliminary flutter boundary and flutter dynamic pressure variation with altitude, Mach number and torsional stiffness were determined.

Computational Identification of Genomic Features That Influence 3D Chromatin Domain Formation.

PubMed

Mourad, Raphaël; Cuvier, Olivier

2016-05-01

Recent advances in long-range Hi-C contact mapping have revealed the importance of the 3D structure of chromosomes in gene expression. A current challenge is to identify the key molecular drivers of this 3D structure. Several genomic features, such as architectural proteins and functional elements, were shown to be enriched at topological domain borders using classical enrichment tests. Here we propose multiple logistic regression to identify those genomic features that positively or negatively influence domain border establishment or maintenance. The model is flexible, and can account for statistical interactions among multiple genomic features. Using both simulated and real data, we show that our model outperforms enrichment test and non-parametric models, such as random forests, for the identification of genomic features that influence domain borders. Using Drosophila Hi-C data at a very high resolution of 1 kb, our model suggests that, among architectural proteins, BEAF-32 and CP190 are the main positive drivers of 3D domain borders. In humans, our model identifies well-known architectural proteins CTCF and cohesin, as well as ZNF143 and Polycomb group proteins as positive drivers of domain borders. The model also reveals the existence of several negative drivers that counteract the presence of domain borders including P300, RXRA, BCL11A and ELK1.

Computational Identification of Genomic Features That Influence 3D Chromatin Domain Formation

PubMed Central

Mourad, Raphaël; Cuvier, Olivier

2016-01-01

Recent advances in long-range Hi-C contact mapping have revealed the importance of the 3D structure of chromosomes in gene expression. A current challenge is to identify the key molecular drivers of this 3D structure. Several genomic features, such as architectural proteins and functional elements, were shown to be enriched at topological domain borders using classical enrichment tests. Here we propose multiple logistic regression to identify those genomic features that positively or negatively influence domain border establishment or maintenance. The model is flexible, and can account for statistical interactions among multiple genomic features. Using both simulated and real data, we show that our model outperforms enrichment test and non-parametric models, such as random forests, for the identification of genomic features that influence domain borders. Using Drosophila Hi-C data at a very high resolution of 1 kb, our model suggests that, among architectural proteins, BEAF-32 and CP190 are the main positive drivers of 3D domain borders. In humans, our model identifies well-known architectural proteins CTCF and cohesin, as well as ZNF143 and Polycomb group proteins as positive drivers of domain borders. The model also reveals the existence of several negative drivers that counteract the presence of domain borders including P300, RXRA, BCL11A and ELK1. PMID:27203237

Likelihood of achieving air quality targets under model uncertainties.

PubMed

Digar, Antara; Cohan, Daniel S; Cox, Dennis D; Kim, Byeong-Uk; Boylan, James W

2011-01-01

Regulatory attainment demonstrations in the United States typically apply a bright-line test to predict whether a control strategy is sufficient to attain an air quality standard. Photochemical models are the best tools available to project future pollutant levels and are a critical part of regulatory attainment demonstrations. However, because photochemical models are uncertain and future meteorology is unknowable, future pollutant levels cannot be predicted perfectly and attainment cannot be guaranteed. This paper introduces a computationally efficient methodology for estimating the likelihood that an emission control strategy will achieve an air quality objective in light of uncertainties in photochemical model input parameters (e.g., uncertain emission and reaction rates, deposition velocities, and boundary conditions). The method incorporates Monte Carlo simulations of a reduced form model representing pollutant-precursor response under parametric uncertainty to probabilistically predict the improvement in air quality due to emission control. The method is applied to recent 8-h ozone attainment modeling for Atlanta, Georgia, to assess the likelihood that additional controls would achieve fixed (well-defined) or flexible (due to meteorological variability and uncertain emission trends) targets of air pollution reduction. The results show that in certain instances ranking of the predicted effectiveness of control strategies may differ between probabilistic and deterministic analyses.

Parametric analysis of ATM solar array.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, B. K.; Adkisson, W. B.

1973-01-01

The paper discusses the methods used for the calculation of ATM solar array performance characteristics and provides the parametric analysis of solar panels used in SKYLAB. To predict the solar array performance under conditions other than test conditions, a mathematical model has been developed. Four computer programs have been used to convert the solar simulator test data to the parametric curves. The first performs module summations, the second determines average solar cell characteristics which will cause a mathematical model to generate a curve matching the test data, the third is a polynomial fit program which determines the polynomial equations for the solar cell characteristics versus temperature, and the fourth program uses the polynomial coefficients generated by the polynomial curve fit program to generate the parametric data.

Fitting C 2 Continuous Parametric Surfaces to Frontiers Delimiting Physiologic Structures

PubMed Central

Bayer, Jason D.

2014-01-01

We present a technique to fit C 2 continuous parametric surfaces to scattered geometric data points forming frontiers delimiting physiologic structures in segmented images. Such mathematical representation is interesting because it facilitates a large number of operations in modeling. While the fitting of C 2 continuous parametric curves to scattered geometric data points is quite trivial, the fitting of C 2 continuous parametric surfaces is not. The difficulty comes from the fact that each scattered data point should be assigned a unique parametric coordinate, and the fit is quite sensitive to their distribution on the parametric plane. We present a new approach where a polygonal (quadrilateral or triangular) surface is extracted from the segmented image. This surface is subsequently projected onto a parametric plane in a manner to ensure a one-to-one mapping. The resulting polygonal mesh is then regularized for area and edge length. Finally, from this point, surface fitting is relatively trivial. The novelty of our approach lies in the regularization of the polygonal mesh. Process performance is assessed with the reconstruction of a geometric model of mouse heart ventricles from a computerized tomography scan. Our results show an excellent reproduction of the geometric data with surfaces that are C 2 continuous. PMID:24782911

Automated Assessment of Disease Progression in Acute Myeloid Leukemia by Probabilistic Analysis of Flow Cytometry Data

PubMed Central

Rajwa, Bartek; Wallace, Paul K.; Griffiths, Elizabeth A.; Dundar, Murat

2017-01-01

Objective Flow cytometry (FC) is a widely acknowledged technology in diagnosis of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and has been indispensable in determining progression of the disease. Although FC plays a key role as a post-therapy prognosticator and evaluator of therapeutic efficacy, the manual analysis of cytometry data is a barrier to optimization of reproducibility and objectivity. This study investigates the utility of our recently introduced non-parametric Bayesian framework in accurately predicting the direction of change in disease progression in AML patients using FC data. Methods The highly flexible non-parametric Bayesian model based on the infinite mixture of infinite Gaussian mixtures is used for jointly modeling data from multiple FC samples to automatically identify functionally distinct cell populations and their local realizations. Phenotype vectors are obtained by characterizing each sample by the proportions of recovered cell populations, which are in turn used to predict the direction of change in disease progression for each patient. Results We used 200 diseased and non-diseased immunophenotypic panels for training and tested the system with 36 additional AML cases collected at multiple time points. The proposed framework identified the change in direction of disease progression with accuracies of 90% (9 out of 10) for relapsing cases and 100% (26 out of 26) for the remaining cases. Conclusions We believe that these promising results are an important first step towards the development of automated predictive systems for disease monitoring and continuous response evaluation. Significance Automated measurement and monitoring of therapeutic response is critical not only for objective evaluation of disease status prognosis but also for timely assessment of treatment strategies. PMID:27416585

Dynamics and control of orbiting flexible systems: A formulation with applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, Chun-Ki Alfred

1992-06-01

A relatively general formulation for studying the nonlinear dynamics and control of spacecraft with interconnected flexible members in a tree-type topology is developed. The distinctive features of the formulation include the following: (1) It is applicable to a large class of present and future spacecraft with flexible beam and plate type appendages, arbitrary in number and orientation. (2) The members are free to undergo predefined slewing maneuvers to facilitate modelling of sun tracking solar panels and large angle maneuvers of space based robots. (3) Solar radiation induced thermal deformations of flexible members are incorporated in the study. (4) The governing equations of motion are highly nonlinear, nonautonomous and coupled. They are programmed in a modular fashion to help isolate the effects of flexibility, librational motion, thermal deformations, slewing maneuvers, shifting center of mass, higher modes, initial conditions, etc. The first chapter of the thesis presents a general background to the subject and a brief review of the relevant literature on multibody dynamics. This is followed by the kinematics and kinetics of the problem leading to the Lagrangian equations of motion. The third chapter focuses on methodology and development of the computer code suitable for parametric dynamical study and control. Next versatility of the general formulation is illustrated through the analysis of five spacecraft configurations of contemporary interest the next generation of multi-purpose communications spacecraft represented by the INdian SATellite II (IN-SAT II): the First Element Launch (FEL) and the Permanently Manned Configuration (PMC) of the proposed Space Station Freedom; the Mobile Servicing System (MSS) to be developed by Canada for operation on the Space Station; and the Space Flyer Unit (SFU) to be launched by Japan in mid-nineties. In the FEL study, the attention is directed towards interactions between the librational and vibrational dynamics. During the PMC investigation, effects of the thermal deformation and orbital eccentricity are introduced and the microgravity environment around the station center of mass explored. The MSS study assesses pointing errors arising from inplane and out-of-plane maneuvers of the robotic arms. The SFU represents a challenging configuration to assess deployment and retrieval dynamics associated with a solar array. Parameters considered here include symmetry, orientation, and duration of the deployment/retrieval maneuvers. Results of the dynamical study clearly shows that, under critical combinations of parameters, the systems can become unstable. Obviously, the next logical step is to explore control strategies to restore equilibrium. To that end, feasibility of the nonlinear control based on the Feedback Linearization Technique (FLT) is explored with reference to the INSAT II and the MSS. Results show the procedure to be quite promising in controlling the INSAT II over a range of disturbances, including the thermal effects. Application of the control to the MSS reduced the pointing error induced by robotic arm maneuvers significantly. The amount of information obtained through a planned parametric analysis of the system dynamics and control is indeed enormous.

Multi-parametric variational data assimilation for hydrological forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarado-Montero, R.; Schwanenberg, D.; Krahe, P.; Helmke, P.; Klein, B.

2017-12-01

Ensemble forecasting is increasingly applied in flow forecasting systems to provide users with a better understanding of forecast uncertainty and consequently to take better-informed decisions. A common practice in probabilistic streamflow forecasting is to force deterministic hydrological model with an ensemble of numerical weather predictions. This approach aims at the representation of meteorological uncertainty but neglects uncertainty of the hydrological model as well as its initial conditions. Complementary approaches use probabilistic data assimilation techniques to receive a variety of initial states or represent model uncertainty by model pools instead of single deterministic models. This paper introduces a novel approach that extends a variational data assimilation based on Moving Horizon Estimation to enable the assimilation of observations into multi-parametric model pools. It results in a probabilistic estimate of initial model states that takes into account the parametric model uncertainty in the data assimilation. The assimilation technique is applied to the uppermost area of River Main in Germany. We use different parametric pools, each of them with five parameter sets, to assimilate streamflow data, as well as remotely sensed data from the H-SAF project. We assess the impact of the assimilation in the lead time performance of perfect forecasts (i.e. observed data as forcing variables) as well as deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from ECMWF. The multi-parametric assimilation shows an improvement of up to 23% for CRPS performance and approximately 20% in Brier Skill Scores with respect to the deterministic approach. It also improves the skill of the forecast in terms of rank histogram and produces a narrower ensemble spread.

Self-tuning bistable parametric feedback oscillator: Near-optimal amplitude maximization without model information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, David J.; Sutas, Andrius; Vijayakumar, Sethu

2017-01-01

Theory predicts that parametrically excited oscillators, tuned to operate under resonant condition, are capable of large-amplitude oscillation useful in diverse applications, such as signal amplification, communication, and analog computation. However, due to amplitude saturation caused by nonlinearity, lack of robustness to model uncertainty, and limited sensitivity to parameter modulation, these oscillators require fine-tuning and strong modulation to generate robust large-amplitude oscillation. Here we present a principle of self-tuning parametric feedback excitation that alleviates the above-mentioned limitations. This is achieved using a minimalistic control implementation that performs (i) self-tuning (slow parameter adaptation) and (ii) feedback pumping (fast parameter modulation), without sophisticated signal processing past observations. The proposed approach provides near-optimal amplitude maximization without requiring model-based control computation, previously perceived inevitable to implement optimal control principles in practical application. Experimental implementation of the theory shows that the oscillator self-tunes itself near to the onset of dynamic bifurcation to achieve extreme sensitivity to small resonant parametric perturbations. As a result, it achieves large-amplitude oscillations by capitalizing on the effect of nonlinearity, despite substantial model uncertainties and strong unforeseen external perturbations. We envision the present finding to provide an effective and robust approach to parametric excitation when it comes to real-world application.

Influence of stochastic sea ice parametrization on climate and the role of atmosphere–sea ice–ocean interaction

PubMed Central

Juricke, Stephan; Jung, Thomas

2014-01-01

The influence of a stochastic sea ice strength parametrization on the mean climate is investigated in a coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model. The results are compared with an uncoupled simulation with a prescribed atmosphere. It is found that the stochastic sea ice parametrization causes an effective weakening of the sea ice. In the uncoupled model this leads to an Arctic sea ice volume increase of about 10–20% after an accumulation period of approximately 20–30 years. In the coupled model, no such increase is found. Rather, the stochastic perturbations lead to a spatial redistribution of the Arctic sea ice thickness field. A mechanism involving a slightly negative atmospheric feedback is proposed that can explain the different responses in the coupled and uncoupled system. Changes in integrated Antarctic sea ice quantities caused by the stochastic parametrization are generally small, as memory is lost during the melting season because of an almost complete loss of sea ice. However, stochastic sea ice perturbations affect regional sea ice characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere, both in the uncoupled and coupled model. Remote impacts of the stochastic sea ice parametrization on the mean climate of non-polar regions were found to be small. PMID:24842027

Implicit Priors in Galaxy Cluster Mass and Scaling Relation Determinations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mantz, A.; Allen, S. W.

2011-01-01

Deriving the total masses of galaxy clusters from observations of the intracluster medium (ICM) generally requires some prior information, in addition to the assumptions of hydrostatic equilibrium and spherical symmetry. Often, this information takes the form of particular parametrized functions used to describe the cluster gas density and temperature profiles. In this paper, we investigate the implicit priors on hydrostatic masses that result from this fully parametric approach, and the implications of such priors for scaling relations formed from those masses. We show that the application of such fully parametric models of the ICM naturally imposes a prior on the slopes of the derived scaling relations, favoring the self-similar model, and argue that this prior may be influential in practice. In contrast, this bias does not exist for techniques which adopt an explicit prior on the form of the mass profile but describe the ICM non-parametrically. Constraints on the slope of the cluster mass-temperature relation in the literature show a separation based the approach employed, with the results from fully parametric ICM modeling clustering nearer the self-similar value. Given that a primary goal of scaling relation analyses is to test the self-similar model, the application of methods subject to strong, implicit priors should be avoided. Alternative methods and best practices are discussed.

Bounded Parametric Model Checking for Elementary Net Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapik, Michał; Szreter, Maciej; Penczek, Wojciech

Bounded Model Checking (BMC) is an efficient verification method for reactive systems. BMC has been applied so far to verification of properties expressed in (timed) modal logics, but never to their parametric extensions. In this paper we show, for the first time that BMC can be extended to PRTECTL - a parametric extension of the existential version of CTL. To this aim we define a bounded semantics and a translation from PRTECTL to SAT. The implementation of the algorithm for Elementary Net Systems is presented, together with some experimental results.

Parametric nanomechanical amplification at very high frequency.

PubMed

Karabalin, R B; Feng, X L; Roukes, M L

2009-09-01

Parametric resonance and amplification are important in both fundamental physics and technological applications. Here we report very high frequency (VHF) parametric resonators and mechanical-domain amplifiers based on nanoelectromechanical systems (NEMS). Compound mechanical nanostructures patterned by multilayer, top-down nanofabrication are read out by a novel scheme that parametrically modulates longitudinal stress in doubly clamped beam NEMS resonators. Parametric pumping and signal amplification are demonstrated for VHF resonators up to approximately 130 MHz and provide useful enhancement of both resonance signal amplitude and quality factor. We find that Joule heating and reduced thermal conductance in these nanostructures ultimately impose an upper limit to device performance. We develop a theoretical model to account for both the parametric response and nonequilibrium thermal transport in these composite nanostructures. The results closely conform to our experimental observations, elucidate the frequency and threshold-voltage scaling in parametric VHF NEMS resonators and sensors, and establish the ultimate sensitivity limits of this approach.

Generalized Accelerated Failure Time Spatial Frailty Model for Arbitrarily Censored Data

PubMed Central

Zhou, Haiming; Hanson, Timothy; Zhang, Jiajia

2017-01-01

Flexible incorporation of both geographical patterning and risk effects in cancer survival models is becoming increasingly important, due in part to the recent availability of large cancer registries. Most spatial survival models stochastically order survival curves from different subpopulations. However, it is common for survival curves from two subpopulations to cross in epidemiological cancer studies and thus interpretable standard survival models can not be used without some modification. Common fixes are the inclusion of time-varying regression effects in the proportional hazards model or fully non-parametric modeling, either of which destroys any easy interpretability from the fitted model. To address this issue, we develop a generalized accelerated failure time model which allows stratification on continuous or categorical covariates, as well as providing per-variable tests for whether stratification is necessary via novel approximate Bayes factors. The model is interpretable in terms of how median survival changes and is able to capture crossing survival curves in the presence of spatial correlation. A detailed Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is presented for posterior inference and a freely available function frailtyGAFT is provided to fit the model in the R package spBayesSurv. We apply our approach to a subset of the prostate cancer data gathered for Louisiana by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of the National Cancer Institute. PMID:26993982

Revisiting dark energy models using differential ages of galaxies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rani, Nisha; Mahajan, Shobhit; Mukherjee, Amitabha

In this work, we use a test based on the differential ages of galaxies for distinguishing the dark energy models. As proposed by Jimenez and Loeb in [1], relative ages of galaxies can be used to put constraints on various cosmological parameters. In the same vein, we reconstruct H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz and its derivative ( H {sub 0} {sub d} {sup 2} {sup t} / dz {sup 2}) using a model independent technique called non-parametric smoothing . Basically, dt / dz is the change in the age of the object as a function of redshift whichmore » is directly linked with the Hubble parameter. Hence for reconstruction of this quantity, we use the most recent H ( z ) data. Further, we calculate H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz and its derivative for several models like Phantom, Einstein de Sitter (EdS), ΛCDM, Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization, Jassal-Bagla-Padmanabhan (JBP) parametrization and Feng-Shen-Li-Li (FSLL) parametrization. We check the consistency of these models with the results of reconstruction obtained in a model independent way from the data. It is observed that H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz as a tool is not able to distinguish between the ΛCDM, CPL, JBP and FSLL parametrizations but, as expected, EdS and Phantom models show noticeable deviation from the reconstructed results. Further, the derivative of H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz for various dark energy models is more sensitive at low redshift. It is found that the FSLL model is not consistent with the reconstructed results, however, the ΛCDM model is in concordance with the 3σ region of the reconstruction at redshift z ≥ 0.3.« less

Parametric reduced models for the nonlinear Schrödinger equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harlim, John; Li, Xiantao

2015-05-01

Reduced models for the (defocusing) nonlinear Schrödinger equation are developed. In particular, we develop reduced models that only involve the low-frequency modes given noisy observations of these modes. The ansatz of the reduced parametric models are obtained by employing a rational approximation and a colored-noise approximation, respectively, on the memory terms and the random noise of a generalized Langevin equation that is derived from the standard Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The parameters in the resulting reduced models are inferred from noisy observations with a recently developed ensemble Kalman filter-based parametrization method. The forecasting skill across different temperature regimes are verified by comparing the moments up to order four, a two-time correlation function statistics, and marginal densities of the coarse-grained variables.

Parametric reduced models for the nonlinear Schrödinger equation.

PubMed

Harlim, John; Li, Xiantao

2015-05-01

Reduced models for the (defocusing) nonlinear Schrödinger equation are developed. In particular, we develop reduced models that only involve the low-frequency modes given noisy observations of these modes. The ansatz of the reduced parametric models are obtained by employing a rational approximation and a colored-noise approximation, respectively, on the memory terms and the random noise of a generalized Langevin equation that is derived from the standard Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The parameters in the resulting reduced models are inferred from noisy observations with a recently developed ensemble Kalman filter-based parametrization method. The forecasting skill across different temperature regimes are verified by comparing the moments up to order four, a two-time correlation function statistics, and marginal densities of the coarse-grained variables.

Passive vs. Parachute System Architecture for Robotic Sample Return Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddock, Robert W.; Henning, Allen B.; Samareh, Jamshid A.

2016-01-01

The Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) is a flexible vehicle concept based on the Mars Sample Return (MSR) EEV design which can be used in the preliminary sample return mission study phase to parametrically investigate any trade space of interest to determine the best entry vehicle design approach for that particular mission concept. In addition to the trade space dimensions often considered (e.g. entry conditions, payload size and mass, vehicle size, etc.), the MMEEV trade space considers whether it might be more beneficial for the vehicle to utilize a parachute system during descent/landing or to be fully passive (i.e. not use a parachute). In order to evaluate this trade space dimension, a simplified parachute system model has been developed based on inputs such as vehicle size/mass, payload size/mass and landing requirements. This model works in conjunction with analytical approximations of a mission trade space dataset provided by the MMEEV System Analysis for Planetary EDL (M-SAPE) tool to help quantify the differences between an active (with parachute) and a passive (no parachute) vehicle concept.

Joint Bayesian Component Separation and CMB Power Spectrum Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eriksen, H. K.; Jewell, J. B.; Dickinson, C.; Banday, A. J.; Gorski, K. M.; Lawrence, C. R.

2008-01-01

We describe and implement an exact, flexible, and computationally efficient algorithm for joint component separation and CMB power spectrum estimation, building on a Gibbs sampling framework. Two essential new features are (1) conditional sampling of foreground spectral parameters and (2) joint sampling of all amplitude-type degrees of freedom (e.g., CMB, foreground pixel amplitudes, and global template amplitudes) given spectral parameters. Given a parametric model of the foreground signals, we estimate efficiently and accurately the exact joint foreground- CMB posterior distribution and, therefore, all marginal distributions such as the CMB power spectrum or foreground spectral index posteriors. The main limitation of the current implementation is the requirement of identical beam responses at all frequencies, which restricts the analysis to the lowest resolution of a given experiment. We outline a future generalization to multiresolution observations. To verify the method, we analyze simple models and compare the results to analytical predictions. We then analyze a realistic simulation with properties similar to the 3 yr WMAP data, downgraded to a common resolution of 3 deg FWHM. The results from the actual 3 yr WMAP temperature analysis are presented in a companion Letter.

Benchmark dose analysis via nonparametric regression modeling

PubMed Central

Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

2013-01-01

Estimation of benchmark doses (BMDs) in quantitative risk assessment traditionally is based upon parametric dose-response modeling. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric model is uncertain and/or misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We describe a nonparametric approach for estimating BMDs with quantal-response data based on an isotonic regression method, and also study use of corresponding, nonparametric, bootstrap-based confidence limits for the BMD. We explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a simulation study, and illustrate the calculations with an example from cancer risk assessment. It is seen that this nonparametric approach can provide a useful alternative for BMD estimation when faced with the problem of parametric model uncertainty. PMID:23683057

Update on Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl. H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Luedtke, Alexander; West, Miranda

2011-01-01

Since the June 2010 Astronomy Conference, an independent review of our cost data base discovered some inaccuracies and inconsistencies which can modify our previously reported results. This paper will review changes to the data base, our confidence in those changes and their effect on various parametric cost models

Improved methods in neural network-based adaptive output feedback control, with applications to flight control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Nakwan

Utilizing the universal approximation property of neural networks, we develop several novel approaches to neural network-based adaptive output feedback control of nonlinear systems, and illustrate these approaches for several flight control applications. In particular, we address the problem of non-affine systems and eliminate the fixed point assumption present in earlier work. All of the stability proofs are carried out in a form that eliminates an algebraic loop in the neural network implementation. An approximate input/output feedback linearizing controller is augmented with a neural network using input/output sequences of the uncertain system. These approaches permit adaptation to both parametric uncertainty and unmodeled dynamics. All physical systems also have control position and rate limits, which may either deteriorate performance or cause instability for a sufficiently high control bandwidth. Here we apply a method for protecting an adaptive process from the effects of input saturation and time delays, known as "pseudo control hedging". This method was originally developed for the state feedback case, and we provide a stability analysis that extends its domain of applicability to the case of output feedback. The approach is illustrated by the design of a pitch-attitude flight control system for a linearized model of an R-50 experimental helicopter, and by the design of a pitch-rate control system for a 58-state model of a flexible aircraft consisting of rigid body dynamics coupled with actuator and flexible modes. A new approach to augmentation of an existing linear controller is introduced. It is especially useful when there is limited information concerning the plant model, and the existing controller. The approach is applied to the design of an adaptive autopilot for a guided munition. Design of a neural network adaptive control that ensures asymptotically stable tracking performance is also addressed.

CLUSTERnGO: a user-defined modelling platform for two-stage clustering of time-series data.

PubMed

Fidaner, Işık Barış; Cankorur-Cetinkaya, Ayca; Dikicioglu, Duygu; Kirdar, Betul; Cemgil, Ali Taylan; Oliver, Stephen G

2016-02-01

Simple bioinformatic tools are frequently used to analyse time-series datasets regardless of their ability to deal with transient phenomena, limiting the meaningful information that may be extracted from them. This situation requires the development and exploitation of tailor-made, easy-to-use and flexible tools designed specifically for the analysis of time-series datasets. We present a novel statistical application called CLUSTERnGO, which uses a model-based clustering algorithm that fulfils this need. This algorithm involves two components of operation. Component 1 constructs a Bayesian non-parametric model (Infinite Mixture of Piecewise Linear Sequences) and Component 2, which applies a novel clustering methodology (Two-Stage Clustering). The software can also assign biological meaning to the identified clusters using an appropriate ontology. It applies multiple hypothesis testing to report the significance of these enrichments. The algorithm has a four-phase pipeline. The application can be executed using either command-line tools or a user-friendly Graphical User Interface. The latter has been developed to address the needs of both specialist and non-specialist users. We use three diverse test cases to demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed strategy. In all cases, CLUSTERnGO not only outperformed existing algorithms in assigning unique GO term enrichments to the identified clusters, but also revealed novel insights regarding the biological systems examined, which were not uncovered in the original publications. The C++ and QT source codes, the GUI applications for Windows, OS X and Linux operating systems and user manual are freely available for download under the GNU GPL v3 license at http://www.cmpe.boun.edu.tr/content/CnG. sgo24@cam.ac.uk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Dynamic analysis of a geared rotor system considering a slant crack on the shaft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Qinkai; Zhao, Jingshan; Chu, Fulei

2012-12-01

The vibration problems associated with geared systems have been the focus of research in recent years. As the torque is mainly transmitted by the geared system, a slant crack is more likely to appear on the gear shaft. Due to the slant crack and its breathing mechanism, the dynamic behavior of cracked geared system would differ distinctly with that of uncracked system. Relatively less work is reported on slant crack in the geared rotor system during the past research. Thus, the dynamic analysis of a geared rotor-bearing system with a breathing slant crack is performed in the paper. The finite element model of a geared rotor with slant crack is presented. Based on fracture mechanics, the flexibility matrix for the slant crack is derived that accounts for the additional stress intensity factors. Three methods for whirling analysis, parametric instability analysis and steady-state response analysis are introduced. Then, by taking a widely used one-stage geared rotor-bearing system as an example, the whirling frequencies of the equivalent time-invariant system, two types of instability regions and steady-state response under the excitations of unbalance forces and tooth transmission errors, are computed numerically. The effects of crack depth, position and type (transverse or slant) on the system dynamic behaviors are considered in the discussion. The comparative study with slant cracked geared rotor is carried out to explore distinctive features in their modal, parametric instability and frequency response behaviors.

Bim Automation: Advanced Modeling Generative Process for Complex Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banfi, F.; Fai, S.; Brumana, R.

2017-08-01

The new paradigm of the complexity of modern and historic structures, which are characterised by complex forms, morphological and typological variables, is one of the greatest challenges for building information modelling (BIM). Generation of complex parametric models needs new scientific knowledge concerning new digital technologies. These elements are helpful to store a vast quantity of information during the life cycle of buildings (LCB). The latest developments of parametric applications do not provide advanced tools, resulting in time-consuming work for the generation of models. This paper presents a method capable of processing and creating complex parametric Building Information Models (BIM) with Non-Uniform to NURBS) with multiple levels of details (Mixed and ReverseLoD) based on accurate 3D photogrammetric and laser scanning surveys. Complex 3D elements are converted into parametric BIM software and finite element applications (BIM to FEA) using specific exchange formats and new modelling tools. The proposed approach has been applied to different case studies: the BIM of modern structure for the courtyard of West Block on Parliament Hill in Ottawa (Ontario) and the BIM of Masegra Castel in Sondrio (Italy), encouraging the dissemination and interaction of scientific results without losing information during the generative process.

A Modeling Investigation of Thermal and Strain Induced Recovery and Nonlinear Hardening in Potential Based Viscoplasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Wilt, T. E.

1993-01-01

Specific forms for both the Gibb's and the complementary dissipation potentials were chosen such that a complete potential based multiaxial, isothermal, viscoplastic model was obtained. This model in general possesses three internal state variables (two scalars associated with dislocation density and one tensor associated with dislocation motion) both thermal and dynamic recovery mechanisms, and nonlinear kinematic hardening. This general model, although possessing associated flow and evolutionary laws, is shown to emulate three distinct classes of theories found in the literature, by modification of the driving threshold function F. A parametric study was performed on a specialized nondimensional multiaxial form containing only a single tensorial internal state variable (i.e., internal stress). The study was conducted with the idea of examining the impact of including a strain-induced recovery mechanism and the compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, on the uniaxial and multiaxial response. One important finding was that inclusion of strain recovery provided the needed flexibility in modeling stress-strain and creep response of metals at low homologous temperatures, without adversely affecting the high temperature response. Furthermore, for nonproportional loading paths, the inclusion of the compliance operator had a significant influence on the multiaxial response, but had no influence on either uniaxial or proportional load histories.

A parametric ribcage geometry model accounting for variations among the adult population.

PubMed

Wang, Yulong; Cao, Libo; Bai, Zhonghao; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan D; Hoff, Carrie N; Hu, Jingwen

2016-09-06

The objective of this study is to develop a parametric ribcage model that can account for morphological variations among the adult population. Ribcage geometries, including 12 pair of ribs, sternum, and thoracic spine, were collected from CT scans of 101 adult subjects through image segmentation, landmark identification (1016 for each subject), symmetry adjustment, and template mesh mapping (26,180 elements for each subject). Generalized procrustes analysis (GPA), principal component analysis (PCA), and regression analysis were used to develop a parametric ribcage model, which can predict nodal locations of the template mesh according to age, sex, height, and body mass index (BMI). Two regression models, a quadratic model for estimating the ribcage size and a linear model for estimating the ribcage shape, were developed. The results showed that the ribcage size was dominated by the height (p=0.000) and age-sex-interaction (p=0.007) and the ribcage shape was significantly affected by the age (p=0.0005), sex (p=0.0002), height (p=0.0064) and BMI (p=0.0000). Along with proper assignment of cortical bone thickness, material properties and failure properties, this parametric ribcage model can directly serve as the mesh of finite element ribcage models for quantifying effects of human characteristics on thoracic injury risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation and optimization of silicon-on-sapphire pressure sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulesh, N. A.; Kudyukov, E. V.; Balymov, K. G.; Beloyshov, A. A.

2017-09-01

In this paper, finite element analysis software COMSOL Multiphysics was used to simulate the performance of silicon-on-sapphire piezoresistive pressure sensor, aiming to elaborate a flexible model suitable for further optimization and customization of the currently produced pressure sensors. The base model was built around the cylindrical pressure cell made of titanium alloy having a circular diaphragm with monocrystalline sapphire layer attached. The monocrystalline piezoresistive elements were placed on top of the double-layer diaphragm and electrically connected to form the Wheatstone bridge. Verification of the model and parametric study included three main areas: geometrical parameters of the cell, position of the elements on the diaphragm, and operation at elevated temperature. Optimization of the cell geometry included variation of bossed titanium diaphragm parameters as well as rounding-off radiuses near the edges of the diaphragm. Influence of the temperature was considered separately for thermal expansion of the mechanical components and for the changes of electrical and piezoresistive properties of the piezoresistive elements. In conclusion, the simulation results were compared to the experimental data obtained for three different constructions of the commercial pressure sensors produced by SPA of Automatics named after Academician N.A. Semikhatov.

An Improved Formulation of Hybrid Model Predictive Control With Application to Production-Inventory Systems.

PubMed

Nandola, Naresh N; Rivera, Daniel E

2013-01-01

We consider an improved model predictive control (MPC) formulation for linear hybrid systems described by mixed logical dynamical (MLD) models. The algorithm relies on a multiple-degree-of-freedom parametrization that enables the user to adjust the speed of setpoint tracking, measured disturbance rejection and unmeasured disturbance rejection independently in the closed-loop system. Consequently, controller tuning is more flexible and intuitive than relying on objective function weights (such as move suppression) traditionally used in MPC schemes. The controller formulation is motivated by the needs of non-traditional control applications that are suitably described by hybrid production-inventory systems. Two applications are considered in this paper: adaptive, time-varying interventions in behavioral health, and inventory management in supply chains under conditions of limited capacity. In the adaptive intervention application, a hypothetical intervention inspired by the Fast Track program, a real-life preventive intervention for reducing conduct disorder in at-risk children, is examined. In the inventory management application, the ability of the algorithm to judiciously alter production capacity under conditions of varying demand is presented. These case studies demonstrate that MPC for hybrid systems can be tuned for desired performance under demanding conditions involving noise and uncertainty.

An Improved Formulation of Hybrid Model Predictive Control With Application to Production-Inventory Systems

PubMed Central

Nandola, Naresh N.; Rivera, Daniel E.

2013-01-01

We consider an improved model predictive control (MPC) formulation for linear hybrid systems described by mixed logical dynamical (MLD) models. The algorithm relies on a multiple-degree-of-freedom parametrization that enables the user to adjust the speed of setpoint tracking, measured disturbance rejection and unmeasured disturbance rejection independently in the closed-loop system. Consequently, controller tuning is more flexible and intuitive than relying on objective function weights (such as move suppression) traditionally used in MPC schemes. The controller formulation is motivated by the needs of non-traditional control applications that are suitably described by hybrid production-inventory systems. Two applications are considered in this paper: adaptive, time-varying interventions in behavioral health, and inventory management in supply chains under conditions of limited capacity. In the adaptive intervention application, a hypothetical intervention inspired by the Fast Track program, a real-life preventive intervention for reducing conduct disorder in at-risk children, is examined. In the inventory management application, the ability of the algorithm to judiciously alter production capacity under conditions of varying demand is presented. These case studies demonstrate that MPC for hybrid systems can be tuned for desired performance under demanding conditions involving noise and uncertainty. PMID:24348004

Hydroelastic analysis of surface wave interaction with concentric porous and flexible cylinder systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, S.; Datta, N.; Sahoo, T.

2013-10-01

The present study deals with the hydroelastic analysis of gravity wave interaction with concentric porous and flexible cylinder systems, in which the inner cylinder is rigid and the outer cylinder is porous and flexible. The problems are analyzed in finite water depth under the assumption of small amplitude water wave theory and structural response. The cylinder configurations in the present study are namely (a) surface-piercing truncated cylinders, (b) bottom-touching truncated cylinders and (c) complete submerged cylinders extended from free surface to bottom. As special cases of the concentric cylinder system, wave diffraction by (i) porous flexible cylinder and (ii) flexible floating cage with rigid bottom are analyzed. The scattering potentials are evaluated using Fourier-Bessel series expansion method and the least square approximation method. The convergence of the double series is tested numerically to determine the number of terms in the Fourier-Bessel series expansion. The effects of porosity and flexibility of the outer cylinder, in attenuating the hydrodynamic forces and dynamic overturning moments, are analyzed for various cylinder configurations and wave characteristics. A parametric study with respect to wave frequency, ratios of inner-to-outer cylinder radii, annular spacing between the two cylinders and porosities is done. In order to understand the flow distribution around the cylinders, contour plots are provided. The findings of the present study are likely to be of immense help in the design of various types of marine structures which can withstand the wave loads of varied nature in the marine environment. The theory can be easily extended to deal with a large class of problems associated with acoustic wave interaction with flexible porous structures.

Development of parametric material, energy, and emission inventories for wafer fabrication in the semiconductor industry.

PubMed

Murphy, Cynthia F; Kenig, George A; Allen, David T; Laurent, Jean-Philippe; Dyer, David E

2003-12-01

Currently available data suggest that most of the energy and material consumption related to the production of an integrated circuit is due to the wafer fabrication process. The complexity of wafer manufacturing, requiring hundreds of steps that vary from product to product and from facility to facility and which change every few years, has discouraged the development of material, energy, and emission inventory modules for the purpose of insertion into life cycle assessments. To address this difficulty, a flexible, process-based system for estimating material requirements, energy requirements, and emissions in wafer fabrication has been developed. The method accounts for mass and energy use atthe unit operation level. Parametric unit operation modules have been developed that can be used to predict changes in inventory as the result of changes in product design, equipment selection, or process flow. A case study of the application of the modules is given for energy consumption, but a similar methodology can be used for materials, individually or aggregated.

Rank-based permutation approaches for non-parametric factorial designs.

PubMed

Umlauft, Maria; Konietschke, Frank; Pauly, Markus

2017-11-01

Inference methods for null hypotheses formulated in terms of distribution functions in general non-parametric factorial designs are studied. The methods can be applied to continuous, ordinal or even ordered categorical data in a unified way, and are based only on ranks. In this set-up Wald-type statistics and ANOVA-type statistics are the current state of the art. The first method is asymptotically exact but a rather liberal statistical testing procedure for small to moderate sample size, while the latter is only an approximation which does not possess the correct asymptotic α level under the null. To bridge these gaps, a novel permutation approach is proposed which can be seen as a flexible generalization of the Kruskal-Wallis test to all kinds of factorial designs with independent observations. It is proven that the permutation principle is asymptotically correct while keeping its finite exactness property when data are exchangeable. The results of extensive simulation studies foster these theoretical findings. A real data set exemplifies its applicability. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties in watershed water quality modeling: A formal Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Feng; Zheng, Yi

2018-06-01

Significant Input uncertainty is a major source of error in watershed water quality (WWQ) modeling. It remains challenging to address the input uncertainty in a rigorous Bayesian framework. This study develops the Bayesian Analysis of Input and Parametric Uncertainties (BAIPU), an approach for the joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties through a tight coupling of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The formal likelihood function for this approach is derived considering a lag-1 autocorrelated, heteroscedastic, and Skew Exponential Power (SEP) distributed error model. A series of numerical experiments were performed based on a synthetic nitrate pollution case and on a real study case in the Newport Bay Watershed, California. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(ZS)) were used as the representative WWQ model and MCMC algorithm, respectively. The major findings include the following: (1) the BAIPU can be implemented and used to appropriately identify the uncertain parameters and characterize the predictive uncertainty; (2) the compensation effect between the input and parametric uncertainties can seriously mislead the modeling based management decisions, if the input uncertainty is not explicitly accounted for; (3) the BAIPU accounts for the interaction between the input and parametric uncertainties and therefore provides more accurate calibration and uncertainty results than a sequential analysis of the uncertainties; and (4) the BAIPU quantifies the credibility of different input assumptions on a statistical basis and can be implemented as an effective inverse modeling approach to the joint inference of parameters and inputs.

Comparison of Survival Models for Analyzing Prognostic Factors in Gastric Cancer Patients

PubMed

Habibi, Danial; Rafiei, Mohammad; Chehrei, Ali; Shayan, Zahra; Tafaqodi, Soheil

2018-03-27

Objective: There are a number of models for determining risk factors for survival of patients with gastric cancer. This study was conducted to select the model showing the best fit with available data. Methods: Cox regression and parametric models (Exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, Log normal, Log logistic and Generalized Gamma) were utilized in unadjusted and adjusted forms to detect factors influencing mortality of patients. Comparisons were made with Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) by using STATA 13 and R 3.1.3 softwares. Results: The results of this study indicated that all parametric models outperform the Cox regression model. The Log normal, Log logistic and Generalized Gamma provided the best performance in terms of AIC values (179.2, 179.4 and 181.1, respectively). On unadjusted analysis, the results of the Cox regression and parametric models indicated stage, grade, largest diameter of metastatic nest, largest diameter of LM, number of involved lymph nodes and the largest ratio of metastatic nests to lymph nodes, to be variables influencing the survival of patients with gastric cancer. On adjusted analysis, according to the best model (log normal), grade was found as the significant variable. Conclusion: The results suggested that all parametric models outperform the Cox model. The log normal model provides the best fit and is a good substitute for Cox regression. Creative Commons Attribution License

Efficient model reduction of parametrized systems by matrix discrete empirical interpolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negri, Federico; Manzoni, Andrea; Amsallem, David

2015-12-01

In this work, we apply a Matrix version of the so-called Discrete Empirical Interpolation (MDEIM) for the efficient reduction of nonaffine parametrized systems arising from the discretization of linear partial differential equations. Dealing with affinely parametrized operators is crucial in order to enhance the online solution of reduced-order models (ROMs). However, in many cases such an affine decomposition is not readily available, and must be recovered through (often) intrusive procedures, such as the empirical interpolation method (EIM) and its discrete variant DEIM. In this paper we show that MDEIM represents a very efficient approach to deal with complex physical and geometrical parametrizations in a non-intrusive, efficient and purely algebraic way. We propose different strategies to combine MDEIM with a state approximation resulting either from a reduced basis greedy approach or Proper Orthogonal Decomposition. A posteriori error estimates accounting for the MDEIM error are also developed in the case of parametrized elliptic and parabolic equations. Finally, the capability of MDEIM to generate accurate and efficient ROMs is demonstrated on the solution of two computationally-intensive classes of problems occurring in engineering contexts, namely PDE-constrained shape optimization and parametrized coupled problems.

Determining the optimal model for role-substitution in NHS dental services in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Brocklehurst, Paul; Birch, Stephen; McDonald, Ruth; Tickle, Martin

2013-09-24

Role-substitution describes a model of dental care where Dental Care Professionals (DCPs) provide some of the clinical activity previously undertaken by General Dental Practitioners. This has the potential to increase technical efficiency, the capacity to care and reduce costs. Technical efficiency is defined as the production of the maximum amount of output from a given amount of input so that the service operates at the production frontier i.e. optimal level of productivity. Academic research into technical efficiency is becoming increasingly utilised in health care, although no studies have investigated the efficiency of NHS dentistry or role-substitution in high-street dental practices. The aim of this study is to examine the barriers and enablers that exist for role-substitution in general dental practices in the NHS and to determine the most technically efficient model for role-substitution. A screening questionnaire will be sent to DCPs to determine the type and location of role-substitutive models employed in NHS dental practices in the United Kingdom (UK). Semi-structured interviews will then be conducted with practice owners, DCPs and patients at selected sites identified by the questionnaire. Detail will be recorded about the organisational structure of the dental team, the number of NHS hours worked and the clinical activity undertaken. The interviews will continue until saturation and will record the views and attitudes of the members of the dental team. Final numbers of interviews will be determined by saturation.The second work-stream will examine the technical efficiency of the selected practices using Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Modeling. The former is a non-parametric technique and is considered to be a highly flexible approach for applied health applications. The latter is parametric and is based on frontier regression models that estimate a conventional cost function. Maximising health for a given level and mix of resources is an ethical imperative for health service planners. This study will determine the technical efficiency of role-substitution and so address one of the key recommendations of the Independent Review of NHS dentistry in England.

Determining the optimal model for role-substitution in NHS dental services in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Role-substitution describes a model of dental care where Dental Care Professionals (DCPs) provide some of the clinical activity previously undertaken by General Dental Practitioners. This has the potential to increase technical efficiency, the capacity to care and reduce costs. Technical efficiency is defined as the production of the maximum amount of output from a given amount of input so that the service operates at the production frontier i.e. optimal level of productivity. Academic research into technical efficiency is becoming increasingly utilised in health care, although no studies have investigated the efficiency of NHS dentistry or role-substitution in high-street dental practices. The aim of this study is to examine the barriers and enablers that exist for role-substitution in general dental practices in the NHS and to determine the most technically efficient model for role-substitution. Methods/design A screening questionnaire will be sent to DCPs to determine the type and location of role-substitutive models employed in NHS dental practices in the United Kingdom (UK). Semi-structured interviews will then be conducted with practice owners, DCPs and patients at selected sites identified by the questionnaire. Detail will be recorded about the organisational structure of the dental team, the number of NHS hours worked and the clinical activity undertaken. The interviews will continue until saturation and will record the views and attitudes of the members of the dental team. Final numbers of interviews will be determined by saturation. The second work-stream will examine the technical efficiency of the selected practices using Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Modeling. The former is a non-parametric technique and is considered to be a highly flexible approach for applied health applications. The latter is parametric and is based on frontier regression models that estimate a conventional cost function. Discussion Maximising health for a given level and mix of resources is an ethical imperative for health service planners. This study will determine the technical efficiency of role-substitution and so address one of the key recommendations of the Independent Review of NHS dentistry in England. PMID:24063247

Parametric study of extended end-plate connection using finite element modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mureşan, Ioana Cristina; Bâlc, Roxana

2017-07-01

End-plate connections with preloaded high strength bolts represent a convenient, fast and accurate solution for beam-to-column joints. The behavior of framework joints build up with this type of connection are sensitive dependent on geometrical and material characteristics of the elements connected. This paper presents results of parametric analyses on the behavior of a bolted extended end-plate connection using finite element modeling program Abaqus. This connection was experimentally tested in the Laboratory of Faculty of Civil Engineering from Cluj-Napoca and the results are briefly reviewed in this paper. The numerical model of the studied connection was described in detail in [1] and provides data for this parametric study.

Non-parametric correlative uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis: Application to a Langmuir bimolecular adsorption model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Jinchao; Lansford, Joshua; Mironenko, Alexander; Pourkargar, Davood Babaei; Vlachos, Dionisios G.; Katsoulakis, Markos A.

2018-03-01

We propose non-parametric methods for both local and global sensitivity analysis of chemical reaction models with correlated parameter dependencies. The developed mathematical and statistical tools are applied to a benchmark Langmuir competitive adsorption model on a close packed platinum surface, whose parameters, estimated from quantum-scale computations, are correlated and are limited in size (small data). The proposed mathematical methodology employs gradient-based methods to compute sensitivity indices. We observe that ranking influential parameters depends critically on whether or not correlations between parameters are taken into account. The impact of uncertainty in the correlation and the necessity of the proposed non-parametric perspective are demonstrated.

Bayesian non-parametric inference for stochastic epidemic models using Gaussian Processes.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaoguang; Kypraios, Theodore; O'Neill, Philip D

2016-10-01

This paper considers novel Bayesian non-parametric methods for stochastic epidemic models. Many standard modeling and data analysis methods use underlying assumptions (e.g. concerning the rate at which new cases of disease will occur) which are rarely challenged or tested in practice. To relax these assumptions, we develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach using Gaussian Processes, specifically to estimate the infection process. The methods are illustrated with both simulated and real data sets, the former illustrating that the methods can recover the true infection process quite well in practice, and the latter illustrating that the methods can be successfully applied in different settings. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yimeng; Zhang, Xinping, E-mail: Zhangxinping@bjut.edu.cn; Zhang, Jian

We investigate stretching-induced microscopic deformations spatially distributed in a flexible plate of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) and their applications in the broadening of the output spectrum of a femtosecond optical parametric oscillator. The hologram of the stretched PDMS plate was used to evaluate indirectly the microscopic deformations. The experimental results show that these deformations exhibit weak scattering and diffraction of light and induce negligible cavity loss, ensuring practical applications of the PDMS plate as an intracavity device for lasers. In combination with the thickness reduction of the PDMS plate through stretching, the distributed deformations enable smooth tuning of the output spectrum.

Group-Level EEG-Processing Pipeline for Flexible Single Trial-Based Analyses Including Linear Mixed Models.

PubMed

Frömer, Romy; Maier, Martin; Abdel Rahman, Rasha

2018-01-01

Here we present an application of an EEG processing pipeline customizing EEGLAB and FieldTrip functions, specifically optimized to flexibly analyze EEG data based on single trial information. The key component of our approach is to create a comprehensive 3-D EEG data structure including all trials and all participants maintaining the original order of recording. This allows straightforward access to subsets of the data based on any information available in a behavioral data structure matched with the EEG data (experimental conditions, but also performance indicators, such accuracy or RTs of single trials). In the present study we exploit this structure to compute linear mixed models (LMMs, using lmer in R) including random intercepts and slopes for items. This information can easily be read out from the matched behavioral data, whereas it might not be accessible in traditional ERP approaches without substantial effort. We further provide easily adaptable scripts for performing cluster-based permutation tests (as implemented in FieldTrip), as a more robust alternative to traditional omnibus ANOVAs. Our approach is particularly advantageous for data with parametric within-subject covariates (e.g., performance) and/or multiple complex stimuli (such as words, faces or objects) that vary in features affecting cognitive processes and ERPs (such as word frequency, salience or familiarity), which are sometimes hard to control experimentally or might themselves constitute variables of interest. The present dataset was recorded from 40 participants who performed a visual search task on previously unfamiliar objects, presented either visually intact or blurred. MATLAB as well as R scripts are provided that can be adapted to different datasets.

Parametric Study of a YAV-8B Harrier in Ground Effect Using Time-Dependent Navier-Stokes Computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shishir, Pandya; Chaderjian, Neal; Ahmad, Jsaim; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Flow simulations using the time-dependent Navier-Stokes equations remain a challenge for several reasons. Principal among them are the difficulty to accurately model complex flows, and the time needed to perform the computations. A parametric study of such complex problems is not considered practical due to the large cost associated with computing many time-dependent solutions. The computation time for each solution must be reduced in order to make a parametric study possible. With successful reduction of computation time, the issue of accuracy, and appropriateness of turbulence models will become more tractable.

A generalized Jaynes-Cummings model: The relativistic parametric amplifier and a single trapped ion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ojeda-Guillén, D., E-mail: dojedag@ipn.mx; Mota, R. D.; Granados, V. D.

2016-06-15

We introduce a generalization of the Jaynes-Cummings model and study some of its properties. We obtain the energy spectrum and eigenfunctions of this model by using the tilting transformation and the squeezed number states of the one-dimensional harmonic oscillator. As physical applications, we connect this new model to two important and novelty problems: the relativistic parametric amplifier and the quantum simulation of a single trapped ion.

Parametrization of Drag and Turbulence for Urban Neighbourhoods with Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Santiago, J.-L.; Martilli, A.; Christen, A.; Oke, T. R.

2015-08-01

Urban canopy parametrizations designed to be coupled with mesoscale models must predict the integrated effect of urban obstacles on the flow at each height in the canopy. To assess these neighbourhood-scale effects, results of microscale simulations may be horizontally-averaged. Obstacle-resolving computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of neutrally-stratified flow through canopies of blocks (buildings) with varying distributions and densities of porous media (tree foliage) are conducted, and the spatially-averaged impacts on the flow of these building-tree combinations are assessed. The accuracy with which a one-dimensional (column) model with a one-equation (-) turbulence scheme represents spatially-averaged CFD results is evaluated. Individual physical mechanisms by which trees and buildings affect flow in the column model are evaluated in terms of relative importance. For the treed urban configurations considered, effects of buildings and trees may be considered independently. Building drag coefficients and length scale effects need not be altered due to the presence of tree foliage; therefore, parametrization of spatially-averaged flow through urban neighbourhoods with trees is greatly simplified. The new parametrization includes only source and sink terms significant for the prediction of spatially-averaged flow profiles: momentum drag due to buildings and trees (and the associated wake production of turbulent kinetic energy), modification of length scales by buildings, and enhanced dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy due to the small scale of tree foliage elements. Coefficients for the Santiago and Martilli (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 137: 417-439, 2010) parametrization of building drag coefficients and length scales are revised. Inclusion of foliage terms from the new parametrization in addition to the Santiago and Martilli building terms reduces root-mean-square difference (RMSD) of the column model streamwise velocity component and turbulent kinetic energy relative to the CFD model by 89 % in the canopy and 71 % above the canopy on average for the highest leaf area density scenarios tested: . RMSD values with the new parametrization are less than 20 % of mean layer magnitude for the streamwise velocity component within and above the canopy, and for above-canopy turbulent kinetic energy; RMSD values for within-canopy turbulent kinetic energy are negligible for most scenarios. The foliage-related portion of the new parametrization is required for scenarios with tree foliage of equal or greater height than the buildings, and for scenarios with foliage below roof height for building plan area densities less than approximately 0.25.

Bim and Gis: when Parametric Modeling Meets Geospatial Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barazzetti, L.; Banfi, F.

2017-12-01

Geospatial data have a crucial role in several projects related to infrastructures and land management. GIS software are able to perform advanced geospatial analyses, but they lack several instruments and tools for parametric modelling typically available in BIM. At the same time, BIM software designed for buildings have limited tools to handle geospatial data. As things stand at the moment, BIM and GIS could appear as complementary solutions, notwithstanding research work is currently under development to ensure a better level of interoperability, especially at the scale of the building. On the other hand, the transition from the local (building) scale to the infrastructure (where geospatial data cannot be neglected) has already demonstrated that parametric modelling integrated with geoinformation is a powerful tool to simplify and speed up some phases of the design workflow. This paper reviews such mixed approaches with both simulated and real examples, demonstrating that integration is already a reality at specific scales, which are not dominated by "pure" GIS or BIM. The paper will also demonstrate that some traditional operations carried out with GIS software are also available in parametric modelling software for BIM, such as transformation between reference systems, DEM generation, feature extraction, and geospatial queries. A real case study is illustrated and discussed to show the advantage of a combined use of both technologies. BIM and GIS integration can generate greater usage of geospatial data in the AECOO (Architecture, Engineering, Construction, Owner and Operator) industry, as well as new solutions for parametric modelling with additional geoinformation.

Parametric excitation of tire-wheel assemblies by a stiffness non-uniformity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stutts, D. S.; Krousgrill, C. M.; Soedel, W.

1995-01-01

A simple model of the effect of a concentrated radial stiffness non-uniformity in a passenger car tire is presented. The model treats the tread band of the tire as a rigid ring supported on a viscoelastic foundation. The distributed radial stiffness is lumped into equivalent horizontal (fore-and-aft) and vertical stiffnesses. The concentrated radial stiffness non-uniformity is modeled by treating the tread band as fixed, and the stiffness non-uniformity as rotating around it at the nominal angular velocity of the wheel. Due to loading, the center of mass of the tread band ring model is displaced upward with respect to the wheel spindle and, therefore, the rotating stiffness non-uniformity is alternately compressed and stretched through one complete rotation. This stretching and compressing of the stiffness non-uniformity results in force transmission to the wheel spindle at twice the nominal angular velocity in frequency, and therefore, would excite a given resonance at one-half the nominal angular wheel velocity that a mass unbalance would. The forcing produced by the stiffness non-uniformity is parametric in nature, thus creating the possibility of parametric resonance. The basic theory of the parametric resonance is explained, and a parameter study using derived lumped parameters based on a typical passenger car tire is performed. This study revealed that parametric resonance in passenger car tires, although possible, is unlikely at normal highway speeds as predicted by this model unless the tire is partially deflated.

Parametrically excited oscillation of stay cable and its control in cable-stayed bridges.

PubMed

Sun, Bing-nan; Wang, Zhi-gang; Ko, J M; Ni, Y Q

2003-01-01

This paper presents a nonlinear dynamic model for simulation and analysis of a kind of parametrically excited vibration of stay cable caused by support motion in cable-stayed bridges. The sag, inclination angle of the stay cable are considered in the model, based on which, the oscillation mechanism and dynamic response characteristics of this kind of vibration are analyzed through numerical calculation. It is noted that parametrically excited oscillation of a stay cable with certain sag, inclination angle and initial static tension force may occur in cable-stayed bridges due to deck vibration under the condition that the natural frequency of a cable approaches to about half of the first model frequency of the bridge deck system. A new vibration control system installed on the cable anchorage is proposed as a possible damping system to suppress the cable parametric oscillation. The numerical calculation results showed that with the use of this damping system, the cable oscillation due to the vibration of the deck and/or towers will be considerably reduced.

Changing space and sound: Parametric design and variable acoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, Christopher William

This thesis examines the potential for parametric design software to create performance based design using acoustic metrics as the design criteria. A former soundstage at the University of Southern California used by the Thornton School of Music is used as a case study for a multiuse space for orchestral, percussion, master class and recital use. The criteria used for each programmatic use include reverberation time, bass ratio, and the early energy ratios of the clarity index and objective support. Using a panelized ceiling as a design element to vary the parameters of volume, panel orientation and type of absorptive material, the relationships between these parameters and the design criteria are explored. These relationships and subsequently derived equations are applied to Grasshopper parametric modeling software for Rhino 3D (a NURBS modeling software). Using the target reverberation time and bass ratio for each programmatic use as input for the parametric model, the genomic optimization function of Grasshopper - Galapagos - is run to identify the optimum ceiling geometry and material distribution.

Definition of NASTRAN sets by use of parametric geometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baughn, Terry V.; Tiv, Mehran

1989-01-01

Many finite element preprocessors describe finite element model geometry with points, lines, surfaces and volumes. One method for describing these basic geometric entities is by use of parametric cubics which are useful for representing complex shapes. The lines, surfaces and volumes may be discretized for follow on finite element analysis. The ability to limit or selectively recover results from the finite element model is extremely important to the analyst. Equally important is the ability to easily apply boundary conditions. Although graphical preprocessors have made these tasks easier, model complexity may not lend itself to easily identify a group of grid points desired for data recovery or application of constraints. A methodology is presented which makes use of the assignment of grid point locations in parametric coordinates. The parametric coordinates provide a convenient ordering of the grid point locations and a method for retrieving the grid point ID's from the parent geometry. The selected grid points may then be used for the generation of the appropriate set and constraint cards.

Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazeroms, Werner M. J.; Jenkins, Adrian; Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2018-01-01

Basal melting below ice shelves is a major factor in mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to possible future sea-level rise. Therefore, it is important to have an adequate description of the basal melt rates for use in ice-dynamical models. Most current ice models use rather simple parametrizations based on the local balance of heat between ice and ocean. In this work, however, we use a recently derived parametrization of the melt rates based on a buoyant meltwater plume travelling upward beneath an ice shelf. This plume parametrization combines a non-linear ocean temperature sensitivity with an inherent geometry dependence, which is mainly described by the grounding-line depth and the local slope of the ice-shelf base. For the first time, this type of parametrization is evaluated on a two-dimensional grid covering the entire Antarctic continent. In order to apply the essentially one-dimensional parametrization to realistic ice-shelf geometries, we present an algorithm that determines effective values for the grounding-line depth and basal slope in any point beneath an ice shelf. Furthermore, since detailed knowledge of temperatures and circulation patterns in the ice-shelf cavities is sparse or absent, we construct an effective ocean temperature field from observational data with the purpose of matching (area-averaged) melt rates from the model with observed present-day melt rates. Our results qualitatively replicate large-scale observed features in basal melt rates around Antarctica, not only in terms of average values, but also in terms of the spatial pattern, with high melt rates typically occurring near the grounding line. The plume parametrization and the effective temperature field presented here are therefore promising tools for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet requiring a more realistic oceanic forcing.

An Efficient Non-iterative Bulk Parametrization of Surface Fluxes for Stable Atmospheric Conditions Over Polar Sea-Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryanik, Vladimir M.; Lüpkes, Christof

2018-02-01

In climate and weather prediction models the near-surface turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum and related transfer coefficients are usually parametrized on the basis of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST). To avoid iteration, required for the numerical solution of the MOST equations, many models apply parametrizations of the transfer coefficients based on an approach relating these coefficients to the bulk Richardson number Rib. However, the parametrizations that are presently used in most climate models are valid only for weaker stability and larger surface roughnesses than those documented during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean campaign (SHEBA). The latter delivered a well-accepted set of turbulence data in the stable surface layer over polar sea-ice. Using stability functions based on the SHEBA data, we solve the MOST equations applying a new semi-analytic approach that results in transfer coefficients as a function of Rib and roughness lengths for momentum and heat. It is shown that the new coefficients reproduce the coefficients obtained by the numerical iterative method with a good accuracy in the most relevant range of stability and roughness lengths. For small Rib, the new bulk transfer coefficients are similar to the traditional coefficients, but for large Rib they are much smaller than currently used coefficients. Finally, a possible adjustment of the latter and the implementation of the new proposed parametrizations in models are discussed.

Prepositioning emergency supplies under uncertainty: a parametric optimization method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Xuejie; Gao, Jinwu; Liu, Yankui

2018-07-01

Prepositioning of emergency supplies is an effective method for increasing preparedness for disasters and has received much attention in recent years. In this article, the prepositioning problem is studied by a robust parametric optimization method. The transportation cost, supply, demand and capacity are unknown prior to the extraordinary event, which are represented as fuzzy parameters with variable possibility distributions. The variable possibility distributions are obtained through the credibility critical value reduction method for type-2 fuzzy variables. The prepositioning problem is formulated as a fuzzy value-at-risk model to achieve a minimum total cost incurred in the whole process. The key difficulty in solving the proposed optimization model is to evaluate the quantile of the fuzzy function in the objective and the credibility in the constraints. The objective function and constraints can be turned into their equivalent parametric forms through chance constrained programming under the different confidence levels. Taking advantage of the structural characteristics of the equivalent optimization model, a parameter-based domain decomposition method is developed to divide the original optimization problem into six mixed-integer parametric submodels, which can be solved by standard optimization solvers. Finally, to explore the viability of the developed model and the solution approach, some computational experiments are performed on realistic scale case problems. The computational results reported in the numerical example show the credibility and superiority of the proposed parametric optimization method.

Towards the generation of a parametric foot model using principal component analysis: A pilot study.

PubMed

Scarton, Alessandra; Sawacha, Zimi; Cobelli, Claudio; Li, Xinshan

2016-06-01

There have been many recent developments in patient-specific models with their potential to provide more information on the human pathophysiology and the increase in computational power. However they are not yet successfully applied in a clinical setting. One of the main challenges is the time required for mesh creation, which is difficult to automate. The development of parametric models by means of the Principle Component Analysis (PCA) represents an appealing solution. In this study PCA has been applied to the feet of a small cohort of diabetic and healthy subjects, in order to evaluate the possibility of developing parametric foot models, and to use them to identify variations and similarities between the two populations. Both the skin and the first metatarsal bones have been examined. Besides the reduced sample of subjects considered in the analysis, results demonstrated that the method adopted herein constitutes a first step towards the realization of a parametric foot models for biomechanical analysis. Furthermore the study showed that the methodology can successfully describe features in the foot, and evaluate differences in the shape of healthy and diabetic subjects. Copyright © 2016 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ACCELERATING MR PARAMETER MAPPING USING SPARSITY-PROMOTING REGULARIZATION IN PARAMETRIC DIMENSION

PubMed Central

Velikina, Julia V.; Alexander, Andrew L.; Samsonov, Alexey

2013-01-01

MR parameter mapping requires sampling along additional (parametric) dimension, which often limits its clinical appeal due to a several-fold increase in scan times compared to conventional anatomic imaging. Data undersampling combined with parallel imaging is an attractive way to reduce scan time in such applications. However, inherent SNR penalties of parallel MRI due to noise amplification often limit its utility even at moderate acceleration factors, requiring regularization by prior knowledge. In this work, we propose a novel regularization strategy, which utilizes smoothness of signal evolution in the parametric dimension within compressed sensing framework (p-CS) to provide accurate and precise estimation of parametric maps from undersampled data. The performance of the method was demonstrated with variable flip angle T1 mapping and compared favorably to two representative reconstruction approaches, image space-based total variation regularization and an analytical model-based reconstruction. The proposed p-CS regularization was found to provide efficient suppression of noise amplification and preservation of parameter mapping accuracy without explicit utilization of analytical signal models. The developed method may facilitate acceleration of quantitative MRI techniques that are not suitable to model-based reconstruction because of complex signal models or when signal deviations from the expected analytical model exist. PMID:23213053

A physiology-based parametric imaging method for FDG-PET data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scussolini, Mara; Garbarino, Sara; Sambuceti, Gianmario; Caviglia, Giacomo; Piana, Michele

2017-12-01

Parametric imaging is a compartmental approach that processes nuclear imaging data to estimate the spatial distribution of the kinetic parameters governing tracer flow. The present paper proposes a novel and efficient computational method for parametric imaging which is potentially applicable to several compartmental models of diverse complexity and which is effective in the determination of the parametric maps of all kinetic coefficients. We consider applications to [18 F]-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) data and analyze the two-compartment catenary model describing the standard FDG metabolization by an homogeneous tissue and the three-compartment non-catenary model representing the renal physiology. We show uniqueness theorems for both models. The proposed imaging method starts from the reconstructed FDG-PET images of tracer concentration and preliminarily applies image processing algorithms for noise reduction and image segmentation. The optimization procedure solves pixel-wise the non-linear inverse problem of determining the kinetic parameters from dynamic concentration data through a regularized Gauss-Newton iterative algorithm. The reliability of the method is validated against synthetic data, for the two-compartment system, and experimental real data of murine models, for the renal three-compartment system.

A parametric model order reduction technique for poroelastic finite element models.

PubMed

Lappano, Ettore; Polanz, Markus; Desmet, Wim; Mundo, Domenico

2017-10-01

This research presents a parametric model order reduction approach for vibro-acoustic problems in the frequency domain of systems containing poroelastic materials (PEM). The method is applied to the Finite Element (FE) discretization of the weak u-p integral formulation based on the Biot-Allard theory and makes use of reduced basis (RB) methods typically employed for parametric problems. The parametric reduction is obtained rewriting the Biot-Allard FE equations for poroelastic materials using an affine representation of the frequency (therefore allowing for RB methods) and projecting the frequency-dependent PEM system on a global reduced order basis generated with the proper orthogonal decomposition instead of standard modal approaches. This has proven to be better suited to describe the nonlinear frequency dependence and the strong coupling introduced by damping. The methodology presented is tested on two three-dimensional systems: in the first experiment, the surface impedance of a PEM layer sample is calculated and compared with results of the literature; in the second, the reduced order model of a multilayer system coupled to an air cavity is assessed and the results are compared to those of the reference FE model.

A Hybrid Wind-Farm Parametrization for Mesoscale and Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Yang; Archer, Cristina L.

2018-04-01

To better understand the potential impact of wind farms on weather and climate at the regional to global scales, a new hybrid wind-farm parametrization is proposed for mesoscale and climate models. The proposed parametrization is a hybrid model because it is not based on physical processes or conservation laws, but on the multiple linear regression of the results of large-eddy simulations (LES) with the geometric properties of the wind-farm layout (e.g., the blockage ratio and blockage distance). The innovative aspect is that each wind turbine is treated individually based on its position in the farm and on the wind direction by predicting the velocity upstream of each turbine. The turbine-induced forces and added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) are first derived analytically and then implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Idealized simulations of the offshore Lillgrund wind farm are conducted. The wind-speed deficit and TKE predicted with the hybrid model are in excellent agreement with those from the LES results, while the wind-power production estimated with the hybrid model is within 10% of that observed. Three additional wind farms with larger inter-turbine spacing than at Lillgrund are also considered, and a similar agreement with LES results is found, proving that the hybrid parametrization works well with any wind farm regardless of the spacing between turbines. These results indicate the wind-turbine position, wind direction, and added TKE are essential in accounting for the wind-farm effects on the surroundings, for which the hybrid wind-farm parametrization is a promising tool.

Robust outer synchronization between two nonlinear complex networks with parametric disturbances and mixed time-varying delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chuan; Wang, Xingyuan; Luo, Chao; Li, Junqiu; Wang, Chunpeng

2018-03-01

In this paper, we focus on the robust outer synchronization problem between two nonlinear complex networks with parametric disturbances and mixed time-varying delays. Firstly, a general complex network model is proposed. Besides the nonlinear couplings, the network model in this paper can possess parametric disturbances, internal time-varying delay, discrete time-varying delay and distributed time-varying delay. Then, according to the robust control strategy, linear matrix inequality and Lyapunov stability theory, several outer synchronization protocols are strictly derived. Simple linear matrix controllers are designed to driver the response network synchronize to the drive network. Additionally, our results can be applied on the complex networks without parametric disturbances. Finally, by utilizing the delayed Lorenz chaotic system as the dynamics of all nodes, simulation examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our theoretical results.

Parametric Modeling as a Technology of Rapid Prototyping in Light Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomilov, I. N.; Grudinin, S. N.; Frolovsky, V. D.; Alexandrov, A. A.

2016-04-01

The paper deals with the parametric modeling method of virtual mannequins for the purposes of design automation in clothing industry. The described approach includes the steps of generation of the basic model on the ground of the initial one (obtained in 3D-scanning process), its parameterization and deformation. The complex surfaces are presented by the wireframe model. The modeling results are evaluated with the set of similarity factors. Deformed models are compared with their virtual prototypes. The results of modeling are estimated by the standard deviation factor.

A generalized fuzzy credibility-constrained linear fractional programming approach for optimal irrigation water allocation under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chenglong; Guo, Ping

2017-10-01

The vague and fuzzy parametric information is a challenging issue in irrigation water management problems. In response to this problem, a generalized fuzzy credibility-constrained linear fractional programming (GFCCFP) model is developed for optimal irrigation water allocation under uncertainty. The model can be derived from integrating generalized fuzzy credibility-constrained programming (GFCCP) into a linear fractional programming (LFP) optimization framework. Therefore, it can solve ratio optimization problems associated with fuzzy parameters, and examine the variation of results under different credibility levels and weight coefficients of possibility and necessary. It has advantages in: (1) balancing the economic and resources objectives directly; (2) analyzing system efficiency; (3) generating more flexible decision solutions by giving different credibility levels and weight coefficients of possibility and (4) supporting in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among system efficiency, credibility level and weight coefficient. The model is applied to a case study of irrigation water allocation in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin, northwest China. Therefore, optimal irrigation water allocation solutions from the GFCCFP model can be obtained. Moreover, factorial analysis on the two parameters (i.e. λ and γ) indicates that the weight coefficient is a main factor compared with credibility level for system efficiency. These results can be effective for support reasonable irrigation water resources management and agricultural production.

Influence of the plasma environment on atomic structure using an ion-sphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belkhiri, Madeny; Fontes, Christopher J.; Poirier, Michel

2015-09-01

Plasma environment effects on atomic structure are analyzed using various atomic structure codes. To monitor the effect of high free-electron density or low temperatures, Fermi-Dirac and Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics are compared. After a discussion of the implementation of the Fermi-Dirac approach within the ion-sphere model, several applications are considered. In order to check the consistency of the modifications brought here to extant codes, calculations have been performed using the Los Alamos Cowan Atomic Structure (cats) code in its Hartree-Fock or Hartree-Fock-Slater form and the parametric potential Flexible Atomic Code (fac). The ground-state energy shifts due to the plasma effects for the six most ionized aluminum ions have been calculated using the fac and cats codes and fairly agree. For the intercombination resonance line in Fe22 +, the plasma effect within the uniform electron gas model results in a positive shift that agrees with the multiconfiguration Dirac-Fock value of B. Saha and S. Fritzsche [J. Phys. B 40, 259 (2007), 10.1088/0953-4075/40/2/002]. Last, the present model is compared to experimental data in titanium measured on the terawatt Astra facility and provides values for electron temperature and density in agreement with the maria code.

AN ADVANCED LEAKAGE SCHEME FOR NEUTRINO TREATMENT IN ASTROPHYSICAL SIMULATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perego, A.; Cabezón, R. M.; Käppeli, R., E-mail: albino.perego@physik.tu-darmstadt.de

We present an Advanced Spectral Leakage (ASL) scheme to model neutrinos in the context of core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) and compact binary mergers. Based on previous gray leakage schemes, the ASL scheme computes the neutrino cooling rates by interpolating local production and diffusion rates (relevant in optically thin and thick regimes, respectively) separately for discretized values of the neutrino energy. Neutrino trapped components are also modeled, based on equilibrium and timescale arguments. The better accuracy achieved by the spectral treatment allows a more reliable computation of neutrino heating rates in optically thin conditions. The scheme has been calibrated and tested against Boltzmannmore » transport in the context of Newtonian spherically symmetric models of CCSNe. ASL shows a very good qualitative and a partial quantitative agreement for key quantities from collapse to a few hundreds of milliseconds after core bounce. We have proved the adaptability and flexibility of our ASL scheme, coupling it to an axisymmetric Eulerian and to a three-dimensional smoothed particle hydrodynamics code to simulate core collapse. Therefore, the neutrino treatment presented here is ideal for large parameter-space explorations, parametric studies, high-resolution tests, code developments, and long-term modeling of asymmetric configurations, where more detailed neutrino treatments are not available or are currently computationally too expensive.« less

Visual Literacy and the Integration of Parametric Modeling in the Problem-Based Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Assenmacher, Matthew Benedict

2013-01-01

This quasi-experimental study investigated the application of visual literacy skills in the form of parametric modeling software in relation to traditional forms of sketching. The study included two groups of high school technical design students. The control and experimental groups involved in the study consisted of two randomly selected groups…

Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground Optical Telescope Assembly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Rowell, Ginger Holmes; Reese, Gayle; Byberg, Alicia

2005-01-01

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multivariable statistical analysis of both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, diffraction-limited wavelength is found to be a secondary driver. Other parameters such as radius of curvature are examined. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e., multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models Based on aperture diameter are derived.

Numerical and machine learning simulation of parametric distributions of groundwater residence time in streams and wells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starn, J. J.; Belitz, K.; Carlson, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater residence-time distributions (RTDs) are critical for assessing susceptibility of water resources to contamination. This novel approach for estimating regional RTDs was to first simulate groundwater flow using existing regional digital data sets in 13 intermediate size watersheds (each an average of 7,000 square kilometers) that are representative of a wide range of glacial systems. RTDs were simulated with particle tracking. We refer to these models as "general models" because they are based on regional, as opposed to site-specific, digital data. Parametric RTDs were created from particle RTDs by fitting 1- and 2-component Weibull, gamma, and inverse Gaussian distributions, thus reducing a large number of particle travel times to 3 to 7 parameters (shape, location, and scale for each component plus a mixing fraction) for each modeled area. The scale parameter of these distributions is related to the mean exponential age; the shape parameter controls departure from the ideal exponential distribution and is partly a function of interaction with bedrock and with drainage density. Given the flexible shape and mathematical similarity of these distributions, any of them are potentially a good fit to particle RTDs. The 1-component gamma distribution provided a good fit to basin-wide particle RTDs. RTDs at monitoring wells and streams often have more complicated shapes than basin-wide RTDs, caused in part by heterogeneity in the model, and generally require 2-component distributions. A machine learning model was trained on the RTD parameters using features derived from regionally available watershed characteristics such as recharge rate, material thickness, and stream density. RTDs appeared to vary systematically across the landscape in relation to watershed features. This relation was used to produce maps of useful metrics with respect to risk-based thresholds, such as the time to first exceedance, time to maximum concentration, time above the threshold (exposure time), and the time until last exceedance; thus, the parameters of groundwater residence time are measures of the intrinsic susceptibility of groundwater to contamination.

Stochastic Modelling, Analysis, and Simulations of the Solar Cycle Dynamic Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Douglas C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.

2018-03-01

Analytical solutions, discretization schemes and simulation results are presented for the time delay deterministic differential equation model of the solar dynamo presented by Wilmot-Smith et al. In addition, this model is extended under stochastic Gaussian white noise parametric fluctuations. The introduction of stochastic fluctuations incorporates variables affecting the dynamo process in the solar interior, estimation error of parameters, and uncertainty of the α-effect mechanism. Simulation results are presented and analyzed to exhibit the effects of stochastic parametric volatility-dependent perturbations. The results generalize and extend the work of Hazra et al. In fact, some of these results exhibit the oscillatory dynamic behavior generated by the stochastic parametric additative perturbations in the absence of time delay. In addition, the simulation results of the modified stochastic models influence the change in behavior of the very recently developed stochastic model of Hazra et al.

Comparison of radiation parametrizations within the HARMONIE-AROME NWP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rontu, Laura; Lindfors, Anders V.

2018-05-01

Downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface (SWDS, global solar radiation flux), given by three different parametrization schemes, was compared to observations in the HARMONIE-AROME numerical weather prediction (NWP) model experiments over Finland in spring 2017. Simulated fluxes agreed well with each other and with the observations in the clear-sky cases. In the cloudy-sky conditions, all schemes tended to underestimate SWDS at the daily level, as compared to the measurements. Large local and temporal differences between the model results and observations were seen, related to the variations and uncertainty of the predicted cloud properties. The results suggest a possibility to benefit from the use of different radiative transfer parametrizations in a NWP model to obtain perturbations for the fine-resolution ensemble prediction systems. In addition, we recommend usage of the global radiation observations for the standard validation of the NWP models.

Latest astronomical constraints on some non-linear parametric dark energy models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Weiqiang; Pan, Supriya; Paliathanasis, Andronikos

2018-04-01

We consider non-linear redshift-dependent equation of state parameters as dark energy models in a spatially flat Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker universe. To depict the expansion history of the universe in such cosmological scenarios, we take into account the large-scale behaviour of such parametric models and fit them using a set of latest observational data with distinct origin that includes cosmic microwave background radiation, Supernove Type Ia, baryon acoustic oscillations, redshift space distortion, weak gravitational lensing, Hubble parameter measurements from cosmic chronometers, and finally the local Hubble constant from Hubble space telescope. The fitting technique avails the publicly available code Cosmological Monte Carlo (COSMOMC), to extract the cosmological information out of these parametric dark energy models. From our analysis, it follows that those models could describe the late time accelerating phase of the universe, while they are distinguished from the Λ-cosmology.

Extended parametric representation of compressor fans and turbines. Volume 2: Part user's manual (parametric turbine)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coverse, G. L.

1984-01-01

A turbine modeling technique has been developed which will enable the user to obtain consistent and rapid off-design performance from design point input. This technique is applicable to both axial and radial flow turbine with flow sizes ranging from about one pound per second to several hundred pounds per second. The axial flow turbines may or may not include variable geometry in the first stage nozzle. A user-specified option will also permit the calculation of design point cooling flow levels and corresponding changes in efficiency for the axial flow turbines. The modeling technique has been incorporated into a time-sharing program in order to facilitate its use. Because this report contains a description of the input output data, values of typical inputs, and example cases, it is suitable as a user's manual. This report is the second of a three volume set. The titles of the three volumes are as follows: (1) Volume 1 CMGEN USER's Manual (Parametric Compressor Generator); (2) Volume 2 PART USER's Manual (Parametric Turbine); (3) Volume 3 MODFAN USER's Manual (Parametric Modulation Flow Fan).

Chempy: A flexible chemical evolution model for abundance fitting. Do the Sun's abundances alone constrain chemical evolution models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybizki, Jan; Just, Andreas; Rix, Hans-Walter

2017-09-01

Elemental abundances of stars are the result of the complex enrichment history of their galaxy. Interpretation of observed abundances requires flexible modeling tools to explore and quantify the information about Galactic chemical evolution (GCE) stored in such data. Here we present Chempy, a newly developed code for GCE modeling, representing a parametrized open one-zone model within a Bayesian framework. A Chempy model is specified by a set of five to ten parameters that describe the effective galaxy evolution along with the stellar and star-formation physics: for example, the star-formation history (SFH), the feedback efficiency, the stellar initial mass function (IMF), and the incidence of supernova of type Ia (SN Ia). Unlike established approaches, Chempy can sample the posterior probability distribution in the full model parameter space and test data-model matches for different nucleosynthetic yield sets. It is essentially a chemical evolution fitting tool. We straightforwardly extend Chempy to a multi-zone scheme. As an illustrative application, we show that interesting parameter constraints result from only the ages and elemental abundances of the Sun, Arcturus, and the present-day interstellar medium (ISM). For the first time, we use such information to infer the IMF parameter via GCE modeling, where we properly marginalize over nuisance parameters and account for different yield sets. We find that 11.6+ 2.1-1.6% of the IMF explodes as core-collapse supernova (CC-SN), compatible with Salpeter (1955, ApJ, 121, 161). We also constrain the incidence of SN Ia per 103M⊙ to 0.5-1.4. At the same time, this Chempy application shows persistent discrepancies between predicted and observed abundances for some elements, irrespective of the chosen yield set. These cannot be remedied by any variations of Chempy's parameters and could be an indication of missing nucleosynthetic channels. Chempy could be a powerful tool to confront predictions from stellar nucleosynthesis with far more complex abundance data sets and to refine the physical processes governing the chemical evolution of stellar systems.

Emissions impacts and benefits of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and vehicle-to-grid services

DOE PAGES

Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

2009-01-22

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have been promoted as a potential technology to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants by using electricity instead of petroleum, and by improving electric system efficiency by providing vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services. We use an electric power system model to explicitly evaluate the change in generator dispatches resulting from PHEV deployment in the Texas grid, and apply fixed and non-parametric estimates of generator emissions rates, to estimate the resulting changes in generation emissions. Here, we find that by using the flexibility of when vehicles may be charged, generator efficiency can be increased substantially. Bymore » changing generator dispatch, a PHEV fleet of up to 15% of light-duty vehicles can actually decrease net generator NO x emissions during the ozone season, despite the additional charging load. By adding V2G services, such as spinning reserves and energy storage, CO 2, SO 2, and NO x emissions can be reduced even further.« less

Numerical investigation of the effects of compressibility on the flutter of a cantilevered plate in an inviscid, subsonic, open flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colera, Manuel; Pérez-Saborid, Miguel

2018-06-01

We have carried out a numerical study of the influence of the upstream Mach number on the flutter of a two-dimensional, cantilevered, flexible plate subject to a subsonic, inviscid, open flow. We have assumed a linear elastic model for the plate and that the fluid flow is governed by the linearized potential theory. The fluid equations are solved with a novel frequency-domain, finite differences method to obtain the generalized aerodynamic forces as a function of the plate displacements. Then, these generalized forces are coupled to the equation of motion of the plate and an eigenvalue analysis is performed to find the flutter point. The obtained results are in good agreement with those of related theoretical and experimental studies found in the literature. To the best of our knowledge, the analysis performed here is the first self-consistent, parametric study of the influence of the compressibility on the flutter point of a two-dimensional cantilevered plate in subsonic flow.

Assessing Similarity Among Individual Tumor Size Lesion Dynamics: The CICIL Methodology

PubMed Central

Girard, Pascal; Ioannou, Konstantinos; Klinkhardt, Ute; Munafo, Alain

2018-01-01

Mathematical models of tumor dynamics generally omit information on individual target lesions (iTLs), and consider the most important variable to be the sum of tumor sizes (TS). However, differences in lesion dynamics might be predictive of tumor progression. To exploit this information, we have developed a novel and flexible approach for the non‐parametric analysis of iTLs, which integrates knowledge from signal processing and machine learning. We called this new methodology ClassIfication Clustering of Individual Lesions (CICIL). We used CICIL to assess similarities among the TS dynamics of 3,223 iTLs measured in 1,056 patients with metastatic colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab combined with irinotecan, in two phase II studies. We mainly observed similar dynamics among lesions within the same tumor site classification. In contrast, lesions in anatomic locations with different features showed different dynamics in about 35% of patients. The CICIL methodology has also been implemented in a user‐friendly and efficient Java‐based framework. PMID:29388396

Anatomical parameterization for volumetric meshing of the liver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vera, Sergio; González Ballester, Miguel A.; Gil, Debora

2014-03-01

A coordinate system describing the interior of organs is a powerful tool for a systematic localization of injured tissue. If the same coordinate values are assigned to specific anatomical landmarks, the coordinate system allows integration of data across different medical image modalities. Harmonic mappings have been used to produce parametric coordinate systems over the surface of anatomical shapes, given their flexibility to set values at specific locations through boundary conditions. However, most of the existing implementations in medical imaging restrict to either anatomical surfaces, or the depth coordinate with boundary conditions is given at sites of limited geometric diversity. In this paper we present a method for anatomical volumetric parameterization that extends current harmonic parameterizations to the interior anatomy using information provided by the volume medial surface. We have applied the methodology to define a common reference system for the liver shape and functional anatomy. This reference system sets a solid base for creating anatomical models of the patient's liver, and allows comparing livers from several patients in a common framework of reference.

Emissions impacts and benefits of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and vehicle-to-grid services.

PubMed

Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

2009-02-15

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have been promoted as a potential technology to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants by using electricity instead of petroleum, and byimproving electric system efficiency by providing vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services. We use an electric power system model to explicitly evaluate the change in generator dispatches resulting from PHEV deployment in the Texas grid, and apply fixed and non-parametric estimates of generator emissions rates, to estimate the resulting changes in generation emissions. We find that by using the flexibility of when vehicles may be charged, generator efficiency can be increased substantially. By changing generator dispatch, a PHEVfleet of up to 15% of light-duty vehicles can actually decrease net generator NOx emissions during the ozone season, despite the additional charging load. By adding V2G services, such as spinning reserves and energy storage, CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions can be reduced even further.

A projection-based model reduction strategy for the wave and vibration analysis of rotating periodic structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beli, D.; Mencik, J.-M.; Silva, P. B.; Arruda, J. R. F.

2018-05-01

The wave finite element method has proved to be an efficient and accurate numerical tool to perform the free and forced vibration analysis of linear reciprocal periodic structures, i.e. those conforming to symmetrical wave fields. In this paper, its use is extended to the analysis of rotating periodic structures, which, due to the gyroscopic effect, exhibit asymmetric wave propagation. A projection-based strategy which uses reduced symplectic wave basis is employed, which provides a well-conditioned eigenproblem for computing waves in rotating periodic structures. The proposed formulation is applied to the free and forced response analysis of homogeneous, multi-layered and phononic ring structures. In all test cases, the following features are highlighted: well-conditioned dispersion diagrams, good accuracy, and low computational time. The proposed strategy is particularly convenient in the simulation of rotating structures when parametric analysis for several rotational speeds is usually required, e.g. for calculating Campbell diagrams. This provides an efficient and flexible framework for the analysis of rotordynamic problems.

Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of Oscillatory Delay Systems with an Application to Gene Regulation.

PubMed

Ingalls, Brian; Mincheva, Maya; Roussel, Marc R

2017-07-01

A parametric sensitivity analysis for periodic solutions of delay-differential equations is developed. Because phase shifts cause the sensitivity coefficients of a periodic orbit to diverge, we focus on sensitivities of the extrema, from which amplitude sensitivities are computed, and of the period. Delay-differential equations are often used to model gene expression networks. In these models, the parametric sensitivities of a particular genotype define the local geometry of the evolutionary landscape. Thus, sensitivities can be used to investigate directions of gradual evolutionary change. An oscillatory protein synthesis model whose properties are modulated by RNA interference is used as an example. This model consists of a set of coupled delay-differential equations involving three delays. Sensitivity analyses are carried out at several operating points. Comments on the evolutionary implications of the results are offered.

A strategy for improved computational efficiency of the method of anchored distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Over, Matthew William; Yang, Yarong; Chen, Xingyuan; Rubin, Yoram

2013-06-01

This paper proposes a strategy for improving the computational efficiency of model inversion using the method of anchored distributions (MAD) by "bundling" similar model parametrizations in the likelihood function. Inferring the likelihood function typically requires a large number of forward model (FM) simulations for each possible model parametrization; as a result, the process is quite expensive. To ease this prohibitive cost, we present an approximation for the likelihood function called bundling that relaxes the requirement for high quantities of FM simulations. This approximation redefines the conditional statement of the likelihood function as the probability of a set of similar model parametrizations "bundle" replicating field measurements, which we show is neither a model reduction nor a sampling approach to improving the computational efficiency of model inversion. To evaluate the effectiveness of these modifications, we compare the quality of predictions and computational cost of bundling relative to a baseline MAD inversion of 3-D flow and transport model parameters. Additionally, to aid understanding of the implementation we provide a tutorial for bundling in the form of a sample data set and script for the R statistical computing language. For our synthetic experiment, bundling achieved a 35% reduction in overall computational cost and had a limited negative impact on predicted probability distributions of the model parameters. Strategies for minimizing error in the bundling approximation, for enforcing similarity among the sets of model parametrizations, and for identifying convergence of the likelihood function are also presented.

Rapid calculation of accurate atomic charges for proteins via the electronegativity equalization method.

PubMed

Ionescu, Crina-Maria; Geidl, Stanislav; Svobodová Vařeková, Radka; Koča, Jaroslav

2013-10-28

We focused on the parametrization and evaluation of empirical models for fast and accurate calculation of conformationally dependent atomic charges in proteins. The models were based on the electronegativity equalization method (EEM), and the parametrization procedure was tailored to proteins. We used large protein fragments as reference structures and fitted the EEM model parameters using atomic charges computed by three population analyses (Mulliken, Natural, iterative Hirshfeld), at the Hartree-Fock level with two basis sets (6-31G*, 6-31G**) and in two environments (gas phase, implicit solvation). We parametrized and successfully validated 24 EEM models. When tested on insulin and ubiquitin, all models reproduced quantum mechanics level charges well and were consistent with respect to population analysis and basis set. Specifically, the models showed on average a correlation of 0.961, RMSD 0.097 e, and average absolute error per atom 0.072 e. The EEM models can be used with the freely available EEM implementation EEM_SOLVER.

Detailed Multi-dimensional Modeling of Direct Internal Reforming Solid Oxide Fuel Cells.

PubMed

Tseronis, K; Fragkopoulos, I S; Bonis, I; Theodoropoulos, C

2016-06-01

Fuel flexibility is a significant advantage of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) and can be attributed to their high operating temperature. Here we consider a direct internal reforming solid oxide fuel cell setup in which a separate fuel reformer is not required. We construct a multidimensional, detailed model of a planar solid oxide fuel cell, where mass transport in the fuel channel is modeled using the Stefan-Maxwell model, whereas the mass transport within the porous electrodes is simulated using the Dusty-Gas model. The resulting highly nonlinear model is built into COMSOL Multiphysics, a commercial computational fluid dynamics software, and is validated against experimental data from the literature. A number of parametric studies is performed to obtain insights on the direct internal reforming solid oxide fuel cell system behavior and efficiency, to aid the design procedure. It is shown that internal reforming results in temperature drop close to the inlet and that the direct internal reforming solid oxide fuel cell performance can be enhanced by increasing the operating temperature. It is also observed that decreases in the inlet temperature result in smoother temperature profiles and in the formation of reduced thermal gradients. Furthermore, the direct internal reforming solid oxide fuel cell performance was found to be affected by the thickness of the electrochemically-active anode catalyst layer, although not always substantially, due to the counter-balancing behavior of the activation and ohmic overpotentials.

A derivation of the Cramer-Rao lower bound of euclidean parameters under equality constraints via score function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susyanto, Nanang

2017-12-01

We propose a simple derivation of the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) of parameters under equality constraints from the CRLB without constraints in regular parametric models. When a regular parametric model and an equality constraint of the parameter are given, a parametric submodel can be defined by restricting the parameter under that constraint. The tangent space of this submodel is then computed with the help of the implicit function theorem. Finally, the score function of the restricted parameter is obtained by projecting the efficient influence function of the unrestricted parameter on the appropriate inner product spaces.

A gradient-based model parametrization using Bernstein polynomials in Bayesian inversion of surface wave dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosselin, Jeremy M.; Dosso, Stan E.; Cassidy, John F.; Quijano, Jorge E.; Molnar, Sheri; Dettmer, Jan

2017-10-01

This paper develops and applies a Bernstein-polynomial parametrization to efficiently represent general, gradient-based profiles in nonlinear geophysical inversion, with application to ambient-noise Rayleigh-wave dispersion data. Bernstein polynomials provide a stable parametrization in that small perturbations to the model parameters (basis-function coefficients) result in only small perturbations to the geophysical parameter profile. A fully nonlinear Bayesian inversion methodology is applied to estimate shear wave velocity (VS) profiles and uncertainties from surface wave dispersion data extracted from ambient seismic noise. The Bayesian information criterion is used to determine the appropriate polynomial order consistent with the resolving power of the data. Data error correlations are accounted for in the inversion using a parametric autoregressive model. The inversion solution is defined in terms of marginal posterior probability profiles for VS as a function of depth, estimated using Metropolis-Hastings sampling with parallel tempering. This methodology is applied to synthetic dispersion data as well as data processed from passive array recordings collected on the Fraser River Delta in British Columbia, Canada. Results from this work are in good agreement with previous studies, as well as with co-located invasive measurements. The approach considered here is better suited than `layered' modelling approaches in applications where smooth gradients in geophysical parameters are expected, such as soil/sediment profiles. Further, the Bernstein polynomial representation is more general than smooth models based on a fixed choice of gradient type (e.g. power-law gradient) because the form of the gradient is determined objectively by the data, rather than by a subjective parametrization choice.

Parametric model of the scala tympani for haptic-rendered cochlear implantation.

PubMed

Todd, Catherine; Naghdy, Fazel

2005-01-01

A parametric model of the human scala tympani has been designed for use in a haptic-rendered computer simulation of cochlear implant surgery. It will be the first surgical simulator of this kind. A geometric model of the Scala Tympani has been derived from measured data for this purpose. The model is compared with two existing descriptions of the cochlear spiral. A first approximation of the basilar membrane is also produced. The structures are imported into a force-rendering software application for system development.

Approximation Model Building for Reliability & Maintainability Characteristics of Reusable Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unal, Resit; Morris, W. Douglas; White, Nancy H.; Lepsch, Roger A.; Brown, Richard W.

2000-01-01

This paper describes the development of parametric models for estimating operational reliability and maintainability (R&M) characteristics for reusable vehicle concepts, based on vehicle size and technology support level. A R&M analysis tool (RMAT) and response surface methods are utilized to build parametric approximation models for rapidly estimating operational R&M characteristics such as mission completion reliability. These models that approximate RMAT, can then be utilized for fast analysis of operational requirements, for lifecycle cost estimating and for multidisciplinary sign optimization.

Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground Optical: Telescope Assembly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Rowell, Ginger Holmes; Reese, Gayle; Byberg, Alicia

2004-01-01

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multi-variable statistical analysis of both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, diffraction limited wavelength is found to be a secondary driver. Other parameters such as radius of curvature were examined. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e. multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models based on aperture diameter were derived.

Parametric Modeling in the CAE Process: Creating a Family of Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Christopher J.

2011-01-01

This Presentation meant as an example - Give ideas of approaches to use - The significant benefit of PARAMETRIC geometry based modeling The importance of planning before you build Showcase some NX capabilities - Mesh Controls - Associativity - Divide Face - Offset Surface Reminder - This only had to be done once! - Can be used for any cabinet in that "family" Saves a lot of time if pre-planned Allows re-use in the future

GEE-Smoothing Spline in Semiparametric Model with Correlated Nominal Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Noor Akma; Suliadi

2010-11-01

In this paper we propose GEE-Smoothing spline in the estimation of semiparametric models with correlated nominal data. The method can be seen as an extension of parametric generalized estimating equation to semiparametric models. The nonparametric component is estimated using smoothing spline specifically the natural cubic spline. We use profile algorithm in the estimation of both parametric and nonparametric components. The properties of the estimators are evaluated using simulation studies.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models.

PubMed

Bignardi, A B; El Faro, L; Cardoso, V L; Machado, P F; Albuquerque, L G

2009-09-01

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Ventral striatal prediction error signaling is associated with dopamine synthesis capacity and fluid intelligence

PubMed Central

Schlagenhauf, Florian; Rapp, Michael A.; Huys, Quentin J. M.; Beck, Anne; Wüstenberg, Torsten; Deserno, Lorenz; Buchholz, Hans-Georg; Kalbitzer, Jan; Buchert, Ralph; Kienast, Thorsten; Cumming, Paul; Plotkin, Michail; Kumakura, Yoshitaka; Grace, Anthony A.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Heinz, Andreas

2013-01-01

Fluid intelligence represents the capacity for flexible problem solving and rapid behavioral adaptation. Rewards drive flexible behavioral adaptation, in part via a teaching signal expressed as reward prediction errors in the ventral striatum, which has been associated with phasic dopamine release in animal studies. We examined a sample of 28 healthy male adults using multimodal imaging and biological parametric mapping with 1) functional magnetic resonance imaging during a reversal learning task and 2) in a subsample of 17 subjects also with positron emission tomography using 6-[18F]fluoro-L-DOPA to assess dopamine synthesis capacity. Fluid intelligence was measured using a battery of nine standard neuropsychological tests. Ventral striatal BOLD correlates of reward prediction errors were positively correlated with fluid intelligence and, in the right ventral striatum, also inversely correlated with dopamine synthesis capacity (FDOPA Kinapp). When exploring aspects of fluid intelligence, we observed that prediction error signaling correlates with complex attention and reasoning. These findings indicate that individual differences in the capacity for flexible problem solving may be driven by ventral striatal activation during reward-related learning, which in turn proved to be inversely associated with ventral striatal dopamine synthesis capacity. PMID:22344813

Correlation between a Student's Performance on the Mental Cutting Test and Their 3D Parametric Modeling Ability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinhauer, H. M.

2012-01-01

Engineering graphics has historically been viewed as a challenging course to teach as students struggle to grasp and understand the fundamental concepts and then to master their proper application. The emergence of stable, fast, affordable 3D parametric modeling platforms such as CATIA, Pro-E, and AutoCAD while providing several pedagogical…

Quantum Treatment of Two Coupled Oscillators in Interaction with a Two-Level Atom:

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, E. M.; Abdalla, M. Sebawe; Obada, A. S.-F.

In this communication we handle a modified model representing the interaction between a two-level atom and two modes of the electromagnetic field in a cavity. The interaction between the modes is assumed to be of a parametric amplifier type. The model consists of two different systems, one represents the Jaynes-Cummings model (atom-field interaction) and the other represents the two mode parametric amplifier model (field-field interaction). After some canonical transformations the constants of the motion have been obtained and used to derive the time evolution operator. The wave function in the Schrödinger picture is constructed and employed to discuss some statistical properties related to the system. Further discussion related to the statistical properties of some physical quantities is given where we have taken into account an initial correlated pair-coherent state for the modes. We concentrate in our examination on the system behavior that occurred as a result of the variation of the parametric amplifier coupling parameter as well as the detuning parameter. It has been shown that the interaction of the parametric amplifier term increases the revival period and consequently longer period of strong interaction between the atom and the fields.

Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model.

PubMed

Tsamados, Michel; Feltham, Daniel; Petty, Alek; Schroeder, David; Flocco, Daniela

2015-10-13

We present a modelling study of processes controlling the summer melt of the Arctic sea ice cover. We perform a sensitivity study and focus our interest on the thermodynamics at the ice-atmosphere and ice-ocean interfaces. We use the Los Alamos community sea ice model CICE, and additionally implement and test three new parametrization schemes: (i) a prognostic mixed layer; (ii) a three equation boundary condition for the salt and heat flux at the ice-ocean interface; and (iii) a new lateral melt parametrization. Recent additions to the CICE model are also tested, including explicit melt ponds, a form drag parametrization and a halodynamic brine drainage scheme. The various sea ice parametrizations tested in this sensitivity study introduce a wide spread in the simulated sea ice characteristics. For each simulation, the total melt is decomposed into its surface, bottom and lateral melt components to assess the processes driving melt and how this varies regionally and temporally. Because this study quantifies the relative importance of several processes in driving the summer melt of sea ice, this work can serve as a guide for future research priorities. © 2015 The Author(s).

Effect of Monovalent Ion Parameters on Molecular Dynamics Simulations of G-Quadruplexes.

PubMed

Havrila, Marek; Stadlbauer, Petr; Islam, Barira; Otyepka, Michal; Šponer, Jiří

2017-08-08

G-quadruplexes (GQs) are key noncanonical DNA and RNA architectures stabilized by desolvated monovalent cations present in their central channels. We analyze extended atomistic molecular dynamics simulations (∼580 μs in total) of GQs with 11 monovalent cation parametrizations, assessing GQ overall structural stability, dynamics of internal cations, and distortions of the G-tetrad geometries. Majority of simulations were executed with the SPC/E water model; however, test simulations with TIP3P and OPC water models are also reported. The identity and parametrization of ions strongly affect behavior of a tetramolecular d[GGG] 4 GQ, which is unstable with several ion parametrizations. The remaining studied RNA and DNA GQs are structurally stable, though the G-tetrad geometries are always deformed by bifurcated H-bonding in a parametrization-specific manner. Thus, basic 10-μs-scale simulations of fully folded GQs can be safely done with a number of cation parametrizations. However, there are parametrization-specific differences and basic force-field errors affecting the quantitative description of ion-tetrad interactions, which may significantly affect studies of the ion-binding processes and description of the GQ folding landscape. Our d[GGG] 4 simulations indirectly suggest that such studies will also be sensitive to the water models. During exchanges with bulk water, the Na + ions move inside the GQs in a concerted manner, while larger relocations of the K + ions are typically separated. We suggest that the Joung-Cheatham SPC/E K + parameters represent a safe choice in simulation studies of GQs, though variation of ion parameters can be used for specific simulation goals.

Piecewise exponential models to assess the influence of job-specific experience on the hazard of acute injury for hourly factory workers

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background An inverse relationship between experience and risk of injury has been observed in many occupations. Due to statistical challenges, however, it has been difficult to characterize the role of experience on the hazard of injury. In particular, because the time observed up to injury is equivalent to the amount of experience accumulated, the baseline hazard of injury becomes the main parameter of interest, excluding Cox proportional hazards models as applicable methods for consideration. Methods Using a data set of 81,301 hourly production workers of a global aluminum company at 207 US facilities, we compared competing parametric models for the baseline hazard to assess whether experience affected the hazard of injury at hire and after later job changes. Specific models considered included the exponential, Weibull, and two (a hypothesis-driven and a data-driven) two-piece exponential models to formally test the null hypothesis that experience does not impact the hazard of injury. Results We highlighted the advantages of our comparative approach and the interpretability of our selected model: a two-piece exponential model that allowed the baseline hazard of injury to change with experience. Our findings suggested a 30% increase in the hazard in the first year after job initiation and/or change. Conclusions Piecewise exponential models may be particularly useful in modeling risk of injury as a function of experience and have the additional benefit of interpretability over other similarly flexible models. PMID:23841648

Streamflow hindcasting in European river basins via multi-parametric ensemble of the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis

2016-04-01

There have been tremendous improvements in distributed hydrologic modeling (DHM) which made a process-based simulation with a high spatiotemporal resolution applicable on a large spatial scale. Despite of increasing information on heterogeneous property of a catchment, DHM is still subject to uncertainties inherently coming from model structure, parameters and input forcing. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction via DHM using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is, however, often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. If parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by DHM may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we present a global multi-parametric ensemble approach to incorporate parametric uncertainty of DHM in DA to improve streamflow predictions. To effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters with limited number of ensemble, MPR method is incorporated with DA. Lagged particle filtering is utilized to consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes. The hindcasting experiments are implemented to evaluate impacts of the proposed DA method on streamflow predictions in multiple European river basins having different climate and catchment characteristics. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be stable with limited ensemble members and viable for practical uses.

Vibration and aeroelastic analysis of highly flexible HALE aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Chong-Seok

The highly flexible HALE (High Altitude Long Endurance) aircraft analysis methodology is of interest because early studies indicated that HALE aircraft might have different vibration and aeroelastic characteristics from those of conventional aircraft. Recently the computer code Nonlinear Aeroelastic Trim And Stability of HALE Aircraft (NATASHA) was developed under NASA sponsorship. NATASHA can predict the flight dynamics and aeroelastic behavior for HALE aircraft with a flying wing configuration. Further analysis improvements for NATASHA were required to extend its capability to the ground vibration test (GVT) environment and to both GVT and aeroelastic behavior of HALE aircraft with other configurations. First, the analysis methodology, based on geometrically exact fully intrinsic beam theory, was extended to treat other aircraft cofigurations. Conventional aircraft with flexible fuselage and tail can now be modeled by treating the aircraft as an assembly of beam elements. NATASHA is now applicable to any aircraft cofiguration that can be modeled this way. The intrinsic beam formulation, which is a fundamental structural modeling approach, is now capable of being applying to a structure consisting of multiple beams by relating the virtual displacements and rotations at points where two or more beam elements are connected to each other. Additional aspects are also considered in the analysis such as auxiliary elevator input in the horizontal tail and fuselage aerodynamics. Second, the modeling approach was extended to treat the GVT environment for HALE aircraft, which have highly flexible wings. GVT has its main purpose to provide modal characteristics for model validation. A bungee formulation was developed by the augmented Lagrangian method and coupled to the intrinsic beam formulation for the GVT modeling. After the coupling procedure, the whole formulation cannot be fully intrinsic because the geometric constraint by bungee cords makes the system statically indeterminate. Displacement and rotation variables need to be introduced, but only at points to which bungee cords are attached. Third, because many HALE aircraft are propeller driven, the structural modeling was extended to include an engine/nacelle/propeller system using a two-degree-of-freedom model with pitch and yaw angles. This step was undertaken to predict a dynamic instability called "whirl flutter," which can be exhibited in such HALE aircraft. It can investigate how the nacelle whirling and wing motions affect each other. For simplicity, two fundamental assumptions are made regarding the propeller aerodynamics and inertia matrix of two-bladed propeller system. The propeller airloads are evaluated by the constant approximation which uses the averaged values for one revolution per blade. Periodic side forces and hub moments are evaluated based on how they affect the trim condition determined by the constant approximation. The next assumption is for certain HALE aircraft which can use a two-bladed propeller system. The inertia matrix appears as periodic in time in the governing equations. If the periodic inertia effect is negligible, then the inertia matrix can be replaced by that of equivalent three-bladed propeller system so that the stability analysis can obviate the need for Floquet theory. These new development have been fully integrated into the current version of NATASHA. Finally, a parametric study for representative HALE aircraft is presented to show how the current methodology can be utilized as a unified preliminary analysis tool for the vibration and aeroelastic analysis of highly flexible HALE aircraft.

The analysis of incontinence episodes and other count data in patients with overactive bladder by Poisson and negative binomial regression.

PubMed

Martina, R; Kay, R; van Maanen, R; Ridder, A

2015-01-01

Clinical studies in overactive bladder have traditionally used analysis of covariance or nonparametric methods to analyse the number of incontinence episodes and other count data. It is known that if the underlying distributional assumptions of a particular parametric method do not hold, an alternative parametric method may be more efficient than a nonparametric one, which makes no assumptions regarding the underlying distribution of the data. Therefore, there are advantages in using methods based on the Poisson distribution or extensions of that method, which incorporate specific features that provide a modelling framework for count data. One challenge with count data is overdispersion, but methods are available that can account for this through the introduction of random effect terms in the modelling, and it is this modelling framework that leads to the negative binomial distribution. These models can also provide clinicians with a clearer and more appropriate interpretation of treatment effects in terms of rate ratios. In this paper, the previously used parametric and non-parametric approaches are contrasted with those based on Poisson regression and various extensions in trials evaluating solifenacin and mirabegron in patients with overactive bladder. In these applications, negative binomial models are seen to fit the data well. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Parametric regression model for survival data: Weibull regression model as an example

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Weibull regression model is one of the most popular forms of parametric regression model that it provides estimate of baseline hazard function, as well as coefficients for covariates. Because of technical difficulties, Weibull regression model is seldom used in medical literature as compared to the semi-parametric proportional hazard model. To make clinical investigators familiar with Weibull regression model, this article introduces some basic knowledge on Weibull regression model and then illustrates how to fit the model with R software. The SurvRegCensCov package is useful in converting estimated coefficients to clinical relevant statistics such as hazard ratio (HR) and event time ratio (ETR). Model adequacy can be assessed by inspecting Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by categorical variable. The eha package provides an alternative method to model Weibull regression model. The check.dist() function helps to assess goodness-of-fit of the model. Variable selection is based on the importance of a covariate, which can be tested using anova() function. Alternatively, backward elimination starting from a full model is an efficient way for model development. Visualization of Weibull regression model after model development is interesting that it provides another way to report your findings. PMID:28149846

Volterra model of the parametric array loudspeaker operating at ultrasonic frequencies.

PubMed

Shi, Chuang; Kajikawa, Yoshinobu

2016-11-01

The parametric array loudspeaker (PAL) is an application of the parametric acoustic array in air, which can be applied to transmit a narrow audio beam from an ultrasonic emitter. However, nonlinear distortion is very perceptible in the audio beam. Modulation methods to reduce the nonlinear distortion are available for on-axis far-field applications. For other applications, preprocessing techniques are wanting. In order to develop a preprocessing technique with general applicability to a wide range of operating conditions, the Volterra filter is investigated as a nonlinear model of the PAL in this paper. Limitations of the standard audio-to-audio Volterra filter are elaborated. An improved ultrasound-to-ultrasound Volterra filter is proposed and empirically demonstrated to be a more generic Volterra model of the PAL.

Ground-Based Telescope Parametric Cost Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Rowell, Ginger Holmes

2004-01-01

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multi-variable statistical analysis, The model includes both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, other significant factors include primary mirror radius of curvature and diffraction limited wavelength. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e.. multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models based on aperture diameter are derived. This analysis indicates that recent mirror technology advances have indeed reduced the historical telescope cost curve.

TOWARD HIGH-PRECISION SEISMIC STUDIES OF WHITE DWARF STARS: PARAMETRIZATION OF THE CORE AND TESTS OF ACCURACY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giammichele, N.; Fontaine, G.; Brassard, P.

We present a prescription for parametrizing the chemical profile in the core of white dwarfs in light of the recent discovery that pulsation modes may sometimes be deeply confined in some cool pulsating white dwarfs. Such modes may be used as unique probes of the complicated chemical stratification that results from several processes that occurred in previous evolutionary phases of intermediate-mass stars. This effort is part of our ongoing quest for more credible and realistic seismic models of white dwarfs using static, parametrized equilibrium structures. Inspired by successful techniques developed in design optimization fields (such as aerodynamics), we exploit Akimamore » splines for the tracing of the chemical profile of oxygen (carbon) in the core of a white dwarf model. A series of tests are then presented to better seize the precision and significance of the results that can be obtained in an asteroseismological context. We also show that the new parametrization passes an essential basic test, as it successfully reproduces the chemical stratification of a full evolutionary model.« less

Real-time solution of linear computational problems using databases of parametric reduced-order models with arbitrary underlying meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amsallem, David; Tezaur, Radek; Farhat, Charbel

2016-12-01

A comprehensive approach for real-time computations using a database of parametric, linear, projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) based on arbitrary underlying meshes is proposed. In the offline phase of this approach, the parameter space is sampled and linear ROMs defined by linear reduced operators are pre-computed at the sampled parameter points and stored. Then, these operators and associated ROMs are transformed into counterparts that satisfy a certain notion of consistency. In the online phase of this approach, a linear ROM is constructed in real-time at a queried but unsampled parameter point by interpolating the pre-computed linear reduced operators on matrix manifolds and therefore computing an interpolated linear ROM. The proposed overall model reduction framework is illustrated with two applications: a parametric inverse acoustic scattering problem associated with a mockup submarine, and a parametric flutter prediction problem associated with a wing-tank system. The second application is implemented on a mobile device, illustrating the capability of the proposed computational framework to operate in real-time.

Toward High-precision Seismic Studies of White Dwarf Stars: Parametrization of the Core and Tests of Accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giammichele, N.; Charpinet, S.; Fontaine, G.; Brassard, P.

2017-01-01

We present a prescription for parametrizing the chemical profile in the core of white dwarfs in light of the recent discovery that pulsation modes may sometimes be deeply confined in some cool pulsating white dwarfs. Such modes may be used as unique probes of the complicated chemical stratification that results from several processes that occurred in previous evolutionary phases of intermediate-mass stars. This effort is part of our ongoing quest for more credible and realistic seismic models of white dwarfs using static, parametrized equilibrium structures. Inspired by successful techniques developed in design optimization fields (such as aerodynamics), we exploit Akima splines for the tracing of the chemical profile of oxygen (carbon) in the core of a white dwarf model. A series of tests are then presented to better seize the precision and significance of the results that can be obtained in an asteroseismological context. We also show that the new parametrization passes an essential basic test, as it successfully reproduces the chemical stratification of a full evolutionary model.

An Application of Semi-parametric Estimator with Weighted Matrix of Data Depth in Variance Component Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, X. G.; Wang, J. Q.; Zhou, H. Y.

2013-05-01

The variance component estimation (VCE) based on semi-parametric estimator with weighted matrix of data depth has been proposed, because the coupling system model error and gross error exist in the multi-source heterogeneous measurement data of space and ground combined TT&C (Telemetry, Tracking and Command) technology. The uncertain model error has been estimated with the semi-parametric estimator model, and the outlier has been restrained with the weighted matrix of data depth. On the basis of the restriction of the model error and outlier, the VCE can be improved and used to estimate weighted matrix for the observation data with uncertain model error or outlier. Simulation experiment has been carried out under the circumstance of space and ground combined TT&C. The results show that the new VCE based on the model error compensation can determine the rational weight of the multi-source heterogeneous data, and restrain the outlier data.

Hybrid pathwise sensitivity methods for discrete stochastic models of chemical reaction systems.

PubMed

Wolf, Elizabeth Skubak; Anderson, David F

2015-01-21

Stochastic models are often used to help understand the behavior of intracellular biochemical processes. The most common such models are continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs). Parametric sensitivities, which are derivatives of expectations of model output quantities with respect to model parameters, are useful in this setting for a variety of applications. In this paper, we introduce a class of hybrid pathwise differentiation methods for the numerical estimation of parametric sensitivities. The new hybrid methods combine elements from the three main classes of procedures for sensitivity estimation and have a number of desirable qualities. First, the new methods are unbiased for a broad class of problems. Second, the methods are applicable to nearly any physically relevant biochemical CTMC model. Third, and as we demonstrate on several numerical examples, the new methods are quite efficient, particularly if one wishes to estimate the full gradient of parametric sensitivities. The methods are rather intuitive and utilize the multilevel Monte Carlo philosophy of splitting an expectation into separate parts and handling each in an efficient manner.

Cosmological implications of quantum mechanics parametrization of dark energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szydłowski, Marek; Stachowski, Aleksander; Urbanowski, Krzysztof

2017-08-01

We consider the cosmology with the running dark energy. The parametrization of dark energy is derived from the quantum process of transition from the false vacuum state to the true vacuum state. This model is the generalized interacting CDM model. We consider the energy density of dark energy parametrization, which is given by the Breit-Wigner energy distribution function. The idea of the process of the quantum mechanical decay of unstable states was formulated by Krauss and Dent. We used this idea in our considerations. In this model is an energy transfer in the dark sector. In this evolutional scenario the universe starts from the false vacuum state and goes to the true vacuum state of the present day universe. The intermediate regime during the passage from false to true vacuum states takes place. In this way the cosmological constant problem can be tried to solve. We estimate the cosmological parameters for this model. This model is in a good agreement with the astronomical data and is practically indistinguishable from CDM model.

Discrepancies between CFHTLenS cosmic shear and Planck: new physics or systematic effects?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitching, Thomas D.; Verde, Licia; Heavens, Alan F.; Jimenez, Raul

2016-06-01

There is currently a discrepancy in the measured value of the amplitude of matter clustering, parametrized using σ8, inferred from galaxy weak lensing, and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, which could be an indication of new physics, such as massive neutrinos or a modification to the gravity law, or baryon feedback. In this paper we make the assumption that the cosmological parameters are well determined by Planck, and use weak lensing data to investigate the implications for baryon feedback and massive neutrinos, as well as possible contributions from intrinsic alignments and biases in photometric redshifts. We apply a non-parametric approach to model the baryonic feedback on the dark matter clustering, which is flexible enough to reproduce the OWLS (OverWhelmingly Large Simulations) and Illustris simulation results. The statistic we use, 3D cosmic shear, is a method that extracts cosmological information from weak lensing data using a spherical-Bessel function power spectrum approach. We analyse the CFHTLenS weak lensing data and, assuming best-fitting cosmological parameters from the Planck CMB experiment, find that there is no evidence for baryonic feedback on the dark matter power spectrum, but there is evidence for a bias in the photometric redshifts in the CFHTLenS data, consistent with a completely independent analysis by Choi et al., based on spectroscopic redshifts, and that these conclusions are robust to assumptions about the intrinsic alignment systematic. We also find an upper limit, of <0.28 eV (1σ), to the sum of neutrino masses conditional on other Λ-cold-dark-matter parameters being fixed.

Serial vs. parallel models of attention in visual search: accounting for benchmark RT-distributions.

PubMed

Moran, Rani; Zehetleitner, Michael; Liesefeld, Heinrich René; Müller, Hermann J; Usher, Marius

2016-10-01

Visual search is central to the investigation of selective visual attention. Classical theories propose that items are identified by serially deploying focal attention to their locations. While this accounts for set-size effects over a continuum of task difficulties, it has been suggested that parallel models can account for such effects equally well. We compared the serial Competitive Guided Search model with a parallel model in their ability to account for RT distributions and error rates from a large visual search data-set featuring three classical search tasks: 1) a spatial configuration search (2 vs. 5); 2) a feature-conjunction search; and 3) a unique feature search (Wolfe, Palmer & Horowitz Vision Research, 50(14), 1304-1311, 2010). In the parallel model, each item is represented by a diffusion to two boundaries (target-present/absent); the search corresponds to a parallel race between these diffusors. The parallel model was highly flexible in that it allowed both for a parametric range of capacity-limitation and for set-size adjustments of identification boundaries. Furthermore, a quit unit allowed for a continuum of search-quitting policies when the target is not found, with "single-item inspection" and exhaustive searches comprising its extremes. The serial model was found to be superior to the parallel model, even before penalizing the parallel model for its increased complexity. We discuss the implications of the results and the need for future studies to resolve the debate.

Classification of Company Performance using Weighted Probabilistic Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasin, Hasbi; Waridi Basyiruddin Arifin, Adi; Warsito, Budi

2018-05-01

Classification of company performance can be judged by looking at its financial status, whether good or bad state. Classification of company performance can be achieved by some approach, either parametric or non-parametric. Neural Network is one of non-parametric methods. One of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models is Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN). PNN consists of four layers, i.e. input layer, pattern layer, addition layer, and output layer. The distance function used is the euclidean distance and each class share the same values as their weights. In this study used PNN that has been modified on the weighting process between the pattern layer and the addition layer by involving the calculation of the mahalanobis distance. This model is called the Weighted Probabilistic Neural Network (WPNN). The results show that the company's performance modeling with the WPNN model has a very high accuracy that reaches 100%.

Design and operational experience of a microwave cavity axion detector for the 20 – 100 μ eV range

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Al Kenany, S.; Anil, M. A.; Backes, K. M.

We describe a dark matter axion detector designed, constructed, and operated both as an innovation platform for new cavity and amplifier technologies and as a data pathfinder in the 5-25 GHz range (~20-100 eV). The platform is small but flexible to facilitate the development of new microwave cavity and amplifier concepts in an operational environment. The experiment has recently completed its first data production; it is the first microwave cavity axion search to deploy a Josephson parametric amplifier and a dilution refrigerator to achieve near-quantum limited performance.

Design and operational experience of a microwave cavity axion detector for the 20 – 100 μ eV range

DOE PAGES

Al Kenany, S.; Anil, M. A.; Backes, K. M.; ...

2017-02-09

We describe a dark matter axion detector designed, constructed, and operated both as an innovation platform for new cavity and amplifier technologies and as a data pathfinder in the 5-25 GHz range (~20-100 eV). The platform is small but flexible to facilitate the development of new microwave cavity and amplifier concepts in an operational environment. The experiment has recently completed its first data production; it is the first microwave cavity axion search to deploy a Josephson parametric amplifier and a dilution refrigerator to achieve near-quantum limited performance.

Effects of dynamic aeroelasticity on handling qualities and pilot rating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaim, R. L.; Yen, W.-Y.

1978-01-01

Pilot performance parameters, such as pilot ratings, tracking errors, and pilot comments, were recorded and analyzed for a longitudinal pitch tracking task on a large, flexible aircraft. The tracking task was programmed on a fixed-base simulator with a CRT attitude director display of pitch angle command, pitch angle, and pitch angle error. Parametric variations in the undamped natural frequencies of the two lowest frequency symmetric elastic modes were made to induce varying degrees of rigid body and elastic mode interaction. The results indicate that such mode interaction can drastically affect the handling qualities and pilot ratings of the task.

Calibrating the coordination chemistry tool chest: metrics of bi- and tridentate ligands.

PubMed

Aguilà, David; Escribano, Esther; Speed, Saskia; Talancón, Daniel; Yermán, Luis; Alvarez, Santiago

2009-09-07

Bi- and multidentate ligands form part of the tools commonly used for designing coordination and supramolecular complexes with desired stereochemistries. Parameters and concepts usually employed include the normalized bite of bidentate ligands, their cis- or trans-coordinating ability, their rigidity or flexibility, or the duality of some ligands that can act in chelating or dinucleating modes. In this contribution we present a structural database study of over one hundred bi- and tridentate ligands that allows us to parametrize their coordinating properties and discuss the relevance of such parameters for the choice of coordination polyhedron or coordination sites.

Sports and Child Development

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The role of curricular activities for the formation of education, health and behavioural outcomes has been widely studied. Yet, the role of extra-curricular activities has received little attention. This study analyzes the effect of participation in sports clubs—one of the most popular extra-curricular activities among children. We use alternative datasets and flexible semi-parametric estimation methods with a specific way to use the panel dimension of the data to address selection into sports. We find positive and robust effects on children’s school performance and peer relations. Crowding out of passive leisure activities can partially explain the effects. PMID:27144474

Optimal control of parametric oscillations of compressed flexible bars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alesova, I. M.; Babadzanjanz, L. K.; Pototskaya, I. Yu.; Pupysheva, Yu. Yu.; Saakyan, A. T.

2018-05-01

In this paper the problem of damping of the linear systems oscillations with piece-wise constant control is solved. The motion of bar construction is reduced to the form described by Hill's differential equation using the Bubnov-Galerkin method. To calculate switching moments of the one-side control the method of sequential linear programming is used. The elements of the fundamental matrix of the Hill's equation are approximated by trigonometric series. Examples of the optimal control of the systems for various initial conditions and different number of control stages have been calculated. The corresponding phase trajectories and transient processes are represented.

VASCOMP 2. The V/STOL aircraft sizing and performance computer program. Volume 6: User's manual, revision 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoen, A. H.; Rosenstein, H.; Stanzione, K.; Wisniewski, J. S.

1980-01-01

This report describes the use of the V/STOL Aircraft Sizing and Performance Computer Program (VASCOMP II). The program is useful in performing aircraft parametric studies in a quick and cost efficient manner. Problem formulation and data development were performed by the Boeing Vertol Company and reflects the present preliminary design technology. The computer program, written in FORTRAN IV, has a broad range of input parameters, to enable investigation of a wide variety of aircraft. User oriented features of the program include minimized input requirements, diagnostic capabilities, and various options for program flexibility.

Parameterization models for pesticide exposure via crop consumption.

PubMed

Fantke, Peter; Wieland, Peter; Juraske, Ronnie; Shaddick, Gavin; Itoiz, Eva Sevigné; Friedrich, Rainer; Jolliet, Olivier

2012-12-04

An approach for estimating human exposure to pesticides via consumption of six important food crops is presented that can be used to extend multimedia models applied in health risk and life cycle impact assessment. We first assessed the variation of model output (pesticide residues per kg applied) as a function of model input variables (substance, crop, and environmental properties) including their possible correlations using matrix algebra. We identified five key parameters responsible for between 80% and 93% of the variation in pesticide residues, namely time between substance application and crop harvest, degradation half-lives in crops and on crop surfaces, overall residence times in soil, and substance molecular weight. Partition coefficients also play an important role for fruit trees and tomato (Kow), potato (Koc), and lettuce (Kaw, Kow). Focusing on these parameters, we develop crop-specific models by parametrizing a complex fate and exposure assessment framework. The parametric models thereby reflect the framework's physical and chemical mechanisms and predict pesticide residues in harvest using linear combinations of crop, crop surface, and soil compartments. Parametric model results correspond well with results from the complex framework for 1540 substance-crop combinations with total deviations between a factor 4 (potato) and a factor 66 (lettuce). Predicted residues also correspond well with experimental data previously used to evaluate the complex framework. Pesticide mass in harvest can finally be combined with reduction factors accounting for food processing to estimate human exposure from crop consumption. All parametric models can be easily implemented into existing assessment frameworks.

Efficient Parallel Levenberg-Marquardt Model Fitting towards Real-Time Automated Parametric Imaging Microscopy

PubMed Central

Zhu, Xiang; Zhang, Dianwen

2013-01-01

We present a fast, accurate and robust parallel Levenberg-Marquardt minimization optimizer, GPU-LMFit, which is implemented on graphics processing unit for high performance scalable parallel model fitting processing. GPU-LMFit can provide a dramatic speed-up in massive model fitting analyses to enable real-time automated pixel-wise parametric imaging microscopy. We demonstrate the performance of GPU-LMFit for the applications in superresolution localization microscopy and fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy. PMID:24130785

A parametric model of muscle moment arm as a function of joint angle: application to the dorsiflexor muscle group in mice.

PubMed

Miller, S W; Dennis, R G

1996-12-01

A parametric model was developed to describe the relationship between muscle moment arm and joint angle. The model was applied to the dorsiflexor muscle group in mice, for which the moment arm was determined as a function of ankle angle. The moment arm was calculated from the torque measured about the ankle upon application of a known force along the line of action of the dorsiflexor muscle group. The dependence of the dorsiflexor moment arm on ankle angle was modeled as r = R sin(a + delta), where r is the moment arm calculated from the measured torque and a is the joint angle. A least-squares curve fit yielded values for R, the maximum moment arm, and delta, the angle at which the maximum moment arm occurs as offset from 90 degrees. Parametric models were developed for two strains of mice, and no differences were found between the moment arms determined for each strain. Values for the maximum moment arm, R, for the two different strains were 0.99 and 1.14 mm, in agreement with the limited data available from the literature. While in some cases moment arm data may be better fitted by a polynomial, use of the parametric model provides a moment arm relationship with meaningful anatomical constants, allowing for the direct comparison of moment arm characteristics between different strains and species.

Selecting a Separable Parametric Spatiotemporal Covariance Structure for Longitudinal Imaging Data

PubMed Central

George, Brandon; Aban, Inmaculada

2014-01-01

Longitudinal imaging studies allow great insight into how the structure and function of a subject’s internal anatomy changes over time. Unfortunately, the analysis of longitudinal imaging data is complicated by inherent spatial and temporal correlation: the temporal from the repeated measures, and the spatial from the outcomes of interest being observed at multiple points in a patients body. We propose the use of a linear model with a separable parametric spatiotemporal error structure for the analysis of repeated imaging data. The model makes use of spatial (exponential, spherical, and Matérn) and temporal (compound symmetric, autoregressive-1, Toeplitz, and unstructured) parametric correlation functions. A simulation study, inspired by a longitudinal cardiac imaging study on mitral regurgitation patients, compared different information criteria for selecting a particular separable parametric spatiotemporal correlation structure as well as the effects on Type I and II error rates for inference on fixed effects when the specified model is incorrect. Information criteria were found to be highly accurate at choosing between separable parametric spatiotemporal correlation structures. Misspecification of the covariance structure was found to have the ability to inflate the Type I error or have an overly conservative test size, which corresponded to decreased power. An example with clinical data is given illustrating how the covariance structure procedure can be done in practice, as well as how covariance structure choice can change inferences about fixed effects. PMID:25293361

Parametric FEM for geometric biomembranes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonito, Andrea; Nochetto, Ricardo H.; Sebastian Pauletti, M.

2010-05-01

We consider geometric biomembranes governed by an L2-gradient flow for bending energy subject to area and volume constraints (Helfrich model). We give a concise derivation of a novel vector formulation, based on shape differential calculus, and corresponding discretization via parametric FEM using quadratic isoparametric elements and a semi-implicit Euler method. We document the performance of the new parametric FEM with a number of simulations leading to dumbbell, red blood cell and toroidal equilibrium shapes while exhibiting large deformations.

Failure Time Distributions: Estimates and Asymptotic Results.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-01-01

of the models. A parametric family of distributions is proposed for approximating life distri- butions whose hazard rate is bath-tub shaped, this...of the limiting dirtributions of the models. A parametric family of distributions is proposed for approximating life distribution~s whose hazard rate...12. always justified. But, because of this gener- ality, the possible limit laws for the maximum form a very large family . The

Application of Group-Level Item Response Models in the Evaluation of Consumer Reports about Health Plan Quality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reise, Steven P.; Meijer, Rob R.; Ainsworth, Andrew T.; Morales, Leo S.; Hays, Ron D.

2006-01-01

Group-level parametric and non-parametric item response theory models were applied to the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS[R]) 2.0 core items in a sample of 35,572 Medicaid recipients nested within 131 health plans. Results indicated that CAHPS responses are dominated by within health plan variation, and only weakly…

Teaching Mathematics with Intelligent Support in Natural Language. Tertiary Education Students Working with Parametrized Modelling Activities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rojano, Teresa; García-Campos, Montserrat

2017-01-01

This article reports the outcomes of a study that seeks to investigate the role of feedback, by way of an intelligent support system in natural language, in parametrized modelling activities carried out by a group of tertiary education students. With such a system, it is possible to simultaneously display on a computer screen a dialogue window and…

Large-scale subject-specific cerebral arterial tree modeling using automated parametric mesh generation for blood flow simulation.

PubMed

Ghaffari, Mahsa; Tangen, Kevin; Alaraj, Ali; Du, Xinjian; Charbel, Fady T; Linninger, Andreas A

2017-12-01

In this paper, we present a novel technique for automatic parametric mesh generation of subject-specific cerebral arterial trees. This technique generates high-quality and anatomically accurate computational meshes for fast blood flow simulations extending the scope of 3D vascular modeling to a large portion of cerebral arterial trees. For this purpose, a parametric meshing procedure was developed to automatically decompose the vascular skeleton, extract geometric features and generate hexahedral meshes using a body-fitted coordinate system that optimally follows the vascular network topology. To validate the anatomical accuracy of the reconstructed vasculature, we performed statistical analysis to quantify the alignment between parametric meshes and raw vascular images using receiver operating characteristic curve. Geometric accuracy evaluation showed an agreement with area under the curves value of 0.87 between the constructed mesh and raw MRA data sets. Parametric meshing yielded on-average, 36.6% and 21.7% orthogonal and equiangular skew quality improvement over the unstructured tetrahedral meshes. The parametric meshing and processing pipeline constitutes an automated technique to reconstruct and simulate blood flow throughout a large portion of the cerebral arterial tree down to the level of pial vessels. This study is the first step towards fast large-scale subject-specific hemodynamic analysis for clinical applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wave Attenuation and Gas Exchange Velocity in Marginal Sea Ice Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigdeli, A.; Hara, T.; Loose, B.; Nguyen, A. T.

2018-03-01

The gas transfer velocity in marginal sea ice zones exerts a strong control on the input of anthropogenic gases into the ocean interior. In this study, a sea state-dependent gas exchange parametric model is developed based on the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate. The model is tuned to match the conventional gas exchange parametrization in fetch-unlimited, fully developed seas. Next, fetch limitation is introduced in the model and results are compared to fetch limited experiments in lakes, showing that the model captures the effects of finite fetch on gas exchange with good fidelity. Having validated the results in fetch limited waters such as lakes, the model is next applied in sea ice zones using an empirical relation between the sea ice cover and the effective fetch, while accounting for the sea ice motion effect that is unique to sea ice zones. The model results compare favorably with the available field measurements. Applying this parametric model to a regional Arctic numerical model, it is shown that, under the present conditions, gas flux into the Arctic Ocean may be overestimated by 10% if a conventional parameterization is used.

The Implications of 3D Thermal Structure on 1D Atmospheric Retrieval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blecic, Jasmina; Dobbs-Dixon, Ian; Greene, Thomas

2017-10-01

Using the atmospheric structure from a 3D global radiation-hydrodynamic simulation of HD 189733b and the open-source Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) code, we investigate the difference between the secondary-eclipse temperature structure produced with a 3D simulation and the best-fit 1D retrieved model. Synthetic data are generated by integrating the 3D models over the Spitzer, the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and the James Web Space Telescope (JWST) bandpasses, covering the wavelength range between 1 and 11 μm where most spectroscopically active species have pronounced features. Using the data from different observing instruments, we present detailed comparisons between the temperature-pressure profiles recovered by BART and those from the 3D simulations. We calculate several averages of the 3D thermal structure and explore which particular thermal profile matches the retrieved temperature structure. We implement two temperature parameterizations that are commonly used in retrieval to investigate different thermal profile shapes. To assess which part of the thermal structure is best constrained by the data, we generate contribution functions for our theoretical model and each of our retrieved models. Our conclusions are strongly affected by the spectral resolution of the instruments included, their wavelength coverage, and the number of data points combined. We also see some limitations in each of the temperature parametrizations, as they are not able to fully match the complex curvatures that are usually produced in hydrodynamic simulations. The results show that our 1D retrieval is recovering a temperature and pressure profile that most closely matches the arithmetic average of the 3D thermal structure. When we use a higher resolution, more data points, and a parametrized temperature profile that allows more flexibility in the middle part of the atmosphere, we find a better match between the retrieved temperature and pressure profile and the arithmetic average. The Spitzer and HST simulated observations sample deep parts of the planetary atmosphere and provide fewer constraints on the temperature and pressure profile, while the JWST observations sample the middle part of the atmosphere, providing a good match with the middle and most complex part of the arithmetic average of the 3D temperature structure.

Analysis of survival in breast cancer patients by using different parametric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enera Amran, Syahila; Asrul Afendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti

2017-09-01

In biomedical applications or clinical trials, right censoring was often arising when studying the time to event data. In this case, some individuals are still alive at the end of the study or lost to follow up at a certain time. It is an important issue to handle the censoring data in order to prevent any bias information in the analysis. Therefore, this study was carried out to analyze the right censoring data with three different parametric models; exponential model, Weibull model and log-logistic models. Data of breast cancer patients from Hospital Sultan Ismail, Johor Bahru from 30 December 2008 until 15 February 2017 was used in this study to illustrate the right censoring data. Besides, the covariates included in this study are the time of breast cancer infection patients survive t, age of each patients X1 and treatment given to the patients X2 . In order to determine the best parametric models in analysing survival of breast cancer patients, the performance of each model was compare based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and log-likelihood value using statistical software R. When analysing the breast cancer data, all three distributions were shown consistency of data with the line graph of cumulative hazard function resembles a straight line going through the origin. As the result, log-logistic model was the best fitted parametric model compared with exponential and Weibull model since it has the smallest value in AIC and BIC, also the biggest value in log-likelihood.

Development and Validation of a Statistical Shape Modeling-Based Finite Element Model of the Cervical Spine Under Low-Level Multiple Direction Loading Conditions

PubMed Central

Bredbenner, Todd L.; Eliason, Travis D.; Francis, W. Loren; McFarland, John M.; Merkle, Andrew C.; Nicolella, Daniel P.

2014-01-01

Cervical spinal injuries are a significant concern in all trauma injuries. Recent military conflicts have demonstrated the substantial risk of spinal injury for the modern warfighter. Finite element models used to investigate injury mechanisms often fail to examine the effects of variation in geometry or material properties on mechanical behavior. The goals of this study were to model geometric variation for a set of cervical spines, to extend this model to a parametric finite element model, and, as a first step, to validate the parametric model against experimental data for low-loading conditions. Individual finite element models were created using cervical spine (C3–T1) computed tomography data for five male cadavers. Statistical shape modeling (SSM) was used to generate a parametric finite element model incorporating variability of spine geometry, and soft-tissue material property variation was also included. The probabilistic loading response of the parametric model was determined under flexion-extension, axial rotation, and lateral bending and validated by comparison to experimental data. Based on qualitative and quantitative comparison of the experimental loading response and model simulations, we suggest that the model performs adequately under relatively low-level loading conditions in multiple loading directions. In conclusion, SSM methods coupled with finite element analyses within a probabilistic framework, along with the ability to statistically validate the overall model performance, provide innovative and important steps toward describing the differences in vertebral morphology, spinal curvature, and variation in material properties. We suggest that these methods, with additional investigation and validation under injurious loading conditions, will lead to understanding and mitigating the risks of injury in the spine and other musculoskeletal structures. PMID:25506051

Long-range parametric amplification of THz wave with absorption loss exceeding parametric gain.

PubMed

Wang, Tsong-Dong; Huang, Yen-Chieh; Chuang, Ming-Yun; Lin, Yen-Hou; Lee, Ching-Han; Lin, Yen-Yin; Lin, Fan-Yi; Kitaeva, Galiya Kh

2013-01-28

Optical parametric mixing is a popular scheme to generate an idler wave at THz frequencies, although the THz wave is often absorbing in the nonlinear optical material. It is widely suggested that the useful material length for co-directional parametric mixing with strong THz-wave absorption is comparable to the THz-wave absorption length in the material. Here we show that, even in the limit of the absorption loss exceeding parametric gain, the THz idler wave can grows monotonically from optical parametric amplification over a much longer distance in a nonlinear optical material until pump depletion. The coherent production of the non-absorbing signal wave can assist the growth of the highly absorbing idler wave. We also show that, for the case of an equal input pump and signal in difference frequency generation, the quick saturation of the THz idler wave predicted from a much simplified and yet popular plane-wave model fails when fast diffraction of the THz wave from the co-propagating optical mixing waves is considered.

Grating lobe elimination in steerable parametric loudspeaker.

PubMed

Shi, Chuang; Gan, Woon-Seng

2011-02-01

In the past two decades, the majority of research on the parametric loudspeaker has concentrated on the nonlinear modeling of acoustic propagation and pre-processing techniques to reduce nonlinear distortion in sound reproduction. There are, however, very few studies on directivity control of the parametric loudspeaker. In this paper, we propose an equivalent circular Gaussian source array that approximates the directivity characteristics of the linear ultrasonic transducer array. By using this approximation, the directivity of the sound beam from the parametric loudspeaker can be predicted by the product directivity principle. New theoretical results, which are verified through measurements, are presented to show the effectiveness of the delay-and-sum beamsteering structure for the parametric loudspeaker. Unlike the conventional loudspeaker array, where the spacing between array elements must be less than half the wavelength to avoid spatial aliasing, the parametric loudspeaker can take advantage of grating lobe elimination to extend the spacing of ultrasonic transducer array to more than 1.5 wavelengths in a typical application.

A Semiparametric Approach to Simultaneous Covariance Estimation for Bivariate Sparse Longitudinal Data

PubMed Central

Das, Kiranmoy; Daniels, Michael J.

2014-01-01

Summary Estimation of the covariance structure for irregular sparse longitudinal data has been studied by many authors in recent years but typically using fully parametric specifications. In addition, when data are collected from several groups over time, it is known that assuming the same or completely different covariance matrices over groups can lead to loss of efficiency and/or bias. Nonparametric approaches have been proposed for estimating the covariance matrix for regular univariate longitudinal data by sharing information across the groups under study. For the irregular case, with longitudinal measurements that are bivariate or multivariate, modeling becomes more difficult. In this article, to model bivariate sparse longitudinal data from several groups, we propose a flexible covariance structure via a novel matrix stick-breaking process for the residual covariance structure and a Dirichlet process mixture of normals for the random effects. Simulation studies are performed to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed approach over more traditional approaches. We also analyze a subset of Framingham Heart Study data to examine how the blood pressure trajectories and covariance structures differ for the patients from different BMI groups (high, medium and low) at baseline. PMID:24400941

Bayesian nonparametric adaptive control using Gaussian processes.

PubMed

Chowdhary, Girish; Kingravi, Hassan A; How, Jonathan P; Vela, Patricio A

2015-03-01

Most current model reference adaptive control (MRAC) methods rely on parametric adaptive elements, in which the number of parameters of the adaptive element are fixed a priori, often through expert judgment. An example of such an adaptive element is radial basis function networks (RBFNs), with RBF centers preallocated based on the expected operating domain. If the system operates outside of the expected operating domain, this adaptive element can become noneffective in capturing and canceling the uncertainty, thus rendering the adaptive controller only semiglobal in nature. This paper investigates a Gaussian process-based Bayesian MRAC architecture (GP-MRAC), which leverages the power and flexibility of GP Bayesian nonparametric models of uncertainty. The GP-MRAC does not require the centers to be preallocated, can inherently handle measurement noise, and enables MRAC to handle a broader set of uncertainties, including those that are defined as distributions over functions. We use stochastic stability arguments to show that GP-MRAC guarantees good closed-loop performance with no prior domain knowledge of the uncertainty. Online implementable GP inference methods are compared in numerical simulations against RBFN-MRAC with preallocated centers and are shown to provide better tracking and improved long-term learning.

Group-Level EEG-Processing Pipeline for Flexible Single Trial-Based Analyses Including Linear Mixed Models

PubMed Central

Frömer, Romy; Maier, Martin; Abdel Rahman, Rasha

2018-01-01

Here we present an application of an EEG processing pipeline customizing EEGLAB and FieldTrip functions, specifically optimized to flexibly analyze EEG data based on single trial information. The key component of our approach is to create a comprehensive 3-D EEG data structure including all trials and all participants maintaining the original order of recording. This allows straightforward access to subsets of the data based on any information available in a behavioral data structure matched with the EEG data (experimental conditions, but also performance indicators, such accuracy or RTs of single trials). In the present study we exploit this structure to compute linear mixed models (LMMs, using lmer in R) including random intercepts and slopes for items. This information can easily be read out from the matched behavioral data, whereas it might not be accessible in traditional ERP approaches without substantial effort. We further provide easily adaptable scripts for performing cluster-based permutation tests (as implemented in FieldTrip), as a more robust alternative to traditional omnibus ANOVAs. Our approach is particularly advantageous for data with parametric within-subject covariates (e.g., performance) and/or multiple complex stimuli (such as words, faces or objects) that vary in features affecting cognitive processes and ERPs (such as word frequency, salience or familiarity), which are sometimes hard to control experimentally or might themselves constitute variables of interest. The present dataset was recorded from 40 participants who performed a visual search task on previously unfamiliar objects, presented either visually intact or blurred. MATLAB as well as R scripts are provided that can be adapted to different datasets. PMID:29472836

An adaptive Bayesian inversion for upper-mantle structure using surface waves and scattered body waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilon, Zachary; Fischer, Karen M.; Dalton, Colleen A.

2018-07-01

We present a methodology for 1-D imaging of upper-mantle structure using a Bayesian approach that incorporates a novel combination of seismic data types and an adaptive parametrization based on piecewise discontinuous splines. Our inversion algorithm lays the groundwork for improved seismic velocity models of the lithosphere and asthenosphere by harnessing the recent expansion of large seismic arrays and computational power alongside sophisticated data analysis. Careful processing of P- and S-wave arrivals isolates converted phases generated at velocity gradients between the mid-crust and 300 km depth. This data is allied with ambient noise and earthquake Rayleigh wave phase velocities to obtain detailed VS and VP velocity models. Synthetic tests demonstrate that converted phases are necessary to accurately constrain velocity gradients, and S-p phases are particularly important for resolving mantle structure, while surface waves are necessary for capturing absolute velocities. We apply the method to several stations in the northwest and north-central United States, finding that the imaged structure improves upon existing models by sharpening the vertical resolution of absolute velocity profiles, offering robust uncertainty estimates, and revealing mid-lithospheric velocity gradients indicative of thermochemical cratonic layering. This flexible method holds promise for increasingly detailed understanding of the upper mantle.

Adaptive Suction and Blowing for Twin-Tail Buffet Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kandil, Osama A.; Yang, Zhi

1999-01-01

Adaptive active flow control for twin-tail buffet alleviation is investigated. The concept behind this technique is to place control ports on the tail outer and inner surfaces with flow suction or blowing applied through these ports in order to minimize the pressure difference across the tail. The suction or blowing volume flow rate from each port is proportional to the pressure difference across the tail at this location. A parametric study of the effects of the number and location of these ports on the buffet response is carried out. The computational model consists of a sharp-edged delta wing of aspect ratio one and swept-back flexible twin tail with taper ratio of 0.23. This complex multidisciplinary problem is solved sequentially using three sets of equations for the fluid flow, aeroelastic response and grid deformation, using a dynamic multi-block grid structure. The computational model is pitched at 30 deg angle of attack. The freestream Mach number and Reynolds number are 0.3 and 1.25 million, respectively. The model is investigated for the inboard position of the twin tails, which corresponds to a separation distance between the twin tails of 33% of the wing span. Comparison of the time history and power spectral density responses of the tails for various distributions of the control ports are presented and discussed.

Statistical detection of geographic clusters of resistant Escherichia coli in a regional network with WHONET and SaTScan.

PubMed

Park, Rachel; O'Brien, Thomas F; Huang, Susan S; Baker, Meghan A; Yokoe, Deborah S; Kulldorff, Martin; Barrett, Craig; Swift, Jamie; Stelling, John

2016-11-01

While antimicrobial resistance threatens the prevention, treatment, and control of infectious diseases, systematic analysis of routine microbiology laboratory test results worldwide can alert new threats and promote timely response. This study explores statistical algorithms for recognizing geographic clustering of multi-resistant microbes within a healthcare network and monitoring the dissemination of new strains over time. Escherichia coli antimicrobial susceptibility data from a three-year period stored in WHONET were analyzed across ten facilities in a healthcare network utilizing SaTScan's spatial multinomial model with two models for defining geographic proximity. We explored geographic clustering of multi-resistance phenotypes within the network and changes in clustering over time. Geographic clustering identified from both latitude/longitude and non-parametric facility groupings geographic models were similar, while the latter was offers greater flexibility and generalizability. Iterative application of the clustering algorithms suggested the possible recognition of the initial appearance of invasive E. coli ST131 in the clinical database of a single hospital and subsequent dissemination to others. Systematic analysis of routine antimicrobial resistance susceptibility test results supports the recognition of geographic clustering of microbial phenotypic subpopulations with WHONET and SaTScan, and iterative application of these algorithms can detect the initial appearance in and dissemination across a region prompting early investigation, response, and containment measures.

Model selection criterion in survival analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karabey, Uǧur; Tutkun, Nihal Ata

2017-07-01

Survival analysis deals with time until occurrence of an event of interest such as death, recurrence of an illness, the failure of an equipment or divorce. There are various survival models with semi-parametric or parametric approaches used in medical, natural or social sciences. The decision on the most appropriate model for the data is an important point of the analysis. In literature Akaike information criteria or Bayesian information criteria are used to select among nested models. In this study,the behavior of these information criterion is discussed for a real data set.

Scalability of the muscular action in a parametric 3D model of the index finger.

PubMed

Sancho-Bru, Joaquín L; Vergara, Margarita; Rodríguez-Cervantes, Pablo-Jesús; Giurintano, David J; Pérez-González, Antonio

2008-01-01

A method for scaling the muscle action is proposed and used to achieve a 3D inverse dynamic model of the human finger with all its components scalable. This method is based on scaling the physiological cross-sectional area (PCSA) in a Hill muscle model. Different anthropometric parameters and maximal grip force data have been measured and their correlations have been analyzed and used for scaling the PCSA of each muscle. A linear relationship between the normalized PCSA and the product of the length and breadth of the hand has been finally used for scaling, with a slope of 0.01315 cm(-2), with the length and breadth of the hand expressed in centimeters. The parametric muscle model has been included in a parametric finger model previously developed by the authors, and it has been validated reproducing the results of an experiment in which subjects from different population groups exerted maximal voluntary forces with their index finger in a controlled posture.

Model for nucleon valence structure functions at all x, all p ⊥ and all Q 2 from the correspondence between QCD and DTU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen-Tannoudji, G.; El Hassouni, A.; Mantrach, A.; Oudrhiri-Safiani, E. G.

1982-09-01

We propose a simple parametrization of the nucleon valence structure functions at all x, all p ⊥ and all Q 2. We use the DTU parton model to fix the parametrization at a reference point ( Q {0/2}=3 GeV2) and we mimic the QCD evolution by replacing the dimensioned parameters of the DTU parton model by functions depending on Q 2. Excellent agreement is obtained with existing data.

Model-free estimation of the psychometric function

PubMed Central

Żychaluk, Kamila; Foster, David H.

2009-01-01

A subject's response to the strength of a stimulus is described by the psychometric function, from which summary measures, such as a threshold or slope, may be derived. Traditionally, this function is estimated by fitting a parametric model to the experimental data, usually the proportion of successful trials at each stimulus level. Common models include the Gaussian and Weibull cumulative distribution functions. This approach works well if the model is correct, but it can mislead if not. In practice, the correct model is rarely known. Here, a nonparametric approach based on local linear fitting is advocated. No assumption is made about the true model underlying the data, except that the function is smooth. The critical role of the bandwidth is identified, and its optimum value estimated by a cross-validation procedure. As a demonstration, seven vision and hearing data sets were fitted by the local linear method and by several parametric models. The local linear method frequently performed better and never worse than the parametric ones. Supplemental materials for this article can be downloaded from app.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental. PMID:19633355

Parametric laws to model urban pollutant dispersion with a street network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soulhac, L.; Salizzoni, P.; Mejean, P.; Perkins, R. J.

2013-03-01

This study discusses the reliability of the street network approach for pollutant dispersion modelling in urban areas. This is essentially based on a box model, with parametric relations that explicitly model the main phenomena that contribute to the street canyon ventilation: the mass exchanges between the street and the atmosphere, the pollutant advection along the street axes and the pollutant transfer at street intersections. In the first part of the paper the focus is on the development of a model for the bulk transfer street/atmosphere, which represents the main ventilation mechanisms for wind direction that are almost perpendicular to the axis of the street. We then discuss the role of the advective transfer along the street axis on its ventilation, depending on the length of the street and the direction of the external wind. Finally we evaluate the performances of a box model integrating parametric exchange laws for these transfer phenomena. To that purpose we compare the prediction of the model to wind tunnel experiments of pollutant dispersion within a street canyon placed in an idealised urban district.

Parametric Model Based On Imputations Techniques for Partly Interval Censored Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zyoud, Abdallah; Elfaki, F. A. M.; Hrairi, Meftah

2017-12-01

The term ‘survival analysis’ has been used in a broad sense to describe collection of statistical procedures for data analysis. In this case, outcome variable of interest is time until an event occurs where the time to failure of a specific experimental unit might be censored which can be right, left, interval, and Partly Interval Censored data (PIC). In this paper, analysis of this model was conducted based on parametric Cox model via PIC data. Moreover, several imputation techniques were used, which are: midpoint, left & right point, random, mean, and median. Maximum likelihood estimate was considered to obtain the estimated survival function. These estimations were then compared with the existing model, such as: Turnbull and Cox model based on clinical trial data (breast cancer data), for which it showed the validity of the proposed model. Result of data set indicated that the parametric of Cox model proved to be more superior in terms of estimation of survival functions, likelihood ratio tests, and their P-values. Moreover, based on imputation techniques; the midpoint, random, mean, and median showed better results with respect to the estimation of survival function.

How certain are the process parameterizations in our models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharari, Shervan; Hrachowitz, Markus; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Matgen, Patrick; Razavi, Saman; Savenije, Hubert; Gupta, Hoshin; Wheater, Howard

2016-04-01

Environmental models are abstract simplifications of real systems. As a result, the elements of these models, including system architecture (structure), process parameterization and parameters inherit a high level of approximation and simplification. In a conventional model building exercise the parameter values are the only elements of a model which can vary while the rest of the modeling elements are often fixed a priori and therefore not subjected to change. Once chosen the process parametrization and model structure usually remains the same throughout the modeling process. The only flexibility comes from the changing parameter values, thereby enabling these models to reproduce the desired observation. This part of modeling practice, parameter identification and uncertainty, has attracted a significant attention in the literature during the last years. However what remains unexplored in our point of view is to what extent the process parameterization and system architecture (model structure) can support each other. In other words "Does a specific form of process parameterization emerge for a specific model given its system architecture and data while no or little assumption has been made about the process parameterization itself? In this study we relax the assumption regarding a specific pre-determined form for the process parameterizations of a rainfall/runoff model and examine how varying the complexity of the system architecture can lead to different or possibly contradictory parameterization forms than what would have been decided otherwise. This comparison implicitly and explicitly provides us with an assessment of how uncertain is our perception of model process parameterization in respect to the extent the data can support.

Resolution of a Rank-Deficient Adjustment Model Via an Isomorphic Geometrical Setup with Tensor Structure.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-03-01

would be transcribed as L =AX - V where L, X, and V are the vectors of constant terms, parametric corrections , and b_o bresiduals, respectively. The...tensor. a Just as du’ represents the parametric corrections in tensor notations, the necessary associated metric tensor a’ corresponds to the variance...observations, n residuals, and 0 n- parametric corrections to X (an initial set of parameters), respectively. b 0 b The vctor L is formed as 1. L where

Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America.

PubMed

Medvigy, David; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-01-19

Terrestrial biosphere models are important tools for diagnosing both the current state of the terrestrial carbon cycle and forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. While there are a number of ongoing assessments of the short-term predictive capabilities of terrestrial biosphere models using flux-tower measurements, to date there have been relatively few assessments of their ability to predict longer term, decadal-scale biomass dynamics. Here, we present the results of a regional-scale evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography version 2 (ED2)-structured terrestrial biosphere model, evaluating the model's predictions against forest inventory measurements for the northeast USA and Quebec from 1985 to 1995. Simulations were conducted using a default parametrization, which used parameter values from the literature, and a constrained model parametrization, which had been developed by constraining the model's predictions against 2 years of measurements from a single site, Harvard Forest (42.5° N, 72.1° W). The analysis shows that the constrained model parametrization offered marked improvements over the default model formulation, capturing large-scale variation in patterns of biomass dynamics despite marked differences in climate forcing, land-use history and species-composition across the region. These results imply that data-constrained parametrizations of structured biosphere models such as ED2 can be successfully used for regional-scale ecosystem prediction and forecasting. We also assess the model's ability to capture sub-grid scale heterogeneity in the dynamics of biomass growth and mortality of different sizes and types of trees, and then discuss the implications of these analyses for further reducing the remaining biases in the model's predictions.

Zero- vs. one-dimensional, parametric vs. non-parametric, and confidence interval vs. hypothesis testing procedures in one-dimensional biomechanical trajectory analysis.

PubMed

Pataky, Todd C; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Robinson, Mark A

2015-05-01

Biomechanical processes are often manifested as one-dimensional (1D) trajectories. It has been shown that 1D confidence intervals (CIs) are biased when based on 0D statistical procedures, and the non-parametric 1D bootstrap CI has emerged in the Biomechanics literature as a viable solution. The primary purpose of this paper was to clarify that, for 1D biomechanics datasets, the distinction between 0D and 1D methods is much more important than the distinction between parametric and non-parametric procedures. A secondary purpose was to demonstrate that a parametric equivalent to the 1D bootstrap exists in the form of a random field theory (RFT) correction for multiple comparisons. To emphasize these points we analyzed six datasets consisting of force and kinematic trajectories in one-sample, paired, two-sample and regression designs. Results showed, first, that the 1D bootstrap and other 1D non-parametric CIs were qualitatively identical to RFT CIs, and all were very different from 0D CIs. Second, 1D parametric and 1D non-parametric hypothesis testing results were qualitatively identical for all six datasets. Last, we highlight the limitations of 1D CIs by demonstrating that they are complex, design-dependent, and thus non-generalizable. These results suggest that (i) analyses of 1D data based on 0D models of randomness are generally biased unless one explicitly identifies 0D variables before the experiment, and (ii) parametric and non-parametric 1D hypothesis testing provide an unambiguous framework for analysis when one׳s hypothesis explicitly or implicitly pertains to whole 1D trajectories. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.