Probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets in decision making with positive and negative parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatimah, F.; Rosadi, D.; Hakim, R. B. F.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we motivate and introduce probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets for handling decision making problem in the presence of positive and negative parameters. We propose several types of algorithms related to this problem. Our procedures are flexible and adaptable. An example on real data is also given.

Acute Δ-9-tetrahydrocannabinol administration in female rats attenuates immediate responses following losses but not multi-trial reinforcement learning from wins.

PubMed

Wong, Scott A; Randolph, Sienna H; Ivan, Victorita E; Gruber, Aaron J

2017-09-29

Δ-9-Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is the main psychoactive component of marijuana and has potent effects on decision-making, including a proposed reduction in cognitive flexibility. We demonstrate here that acute THC administration differentially affects some of the processes that contribute to cognitive flexibility. Specifically, THC reduces lose-shift responding in which female rats tend to immediately shift choice responses away from options that result in reward omission on the previous trial. THC, however, did not impair the ability of rats to flexibly bias responses toward feeders with higher probability of reward in a reversal task. This response adaptation developed over several trials, suggesting that THC did not impair slower forms of reinforcement learning needed to choose among options with unequal utility. This dissociation of THC's effects on innate/rapid and learned/gradual decision-making processes was unexpected, but is supported by emerging evidence that lose-shift responding is mediated by neural mechanisms distinct from those involved in other forms of reinforcement learning. The present data suggest that, at least in some tasks, the apparent reductions in cognitive flexibility by THC may be explained by the immediate effects on loss sensitivity, rather than impairments of all processes used for choice adaptation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Professional judgement and decision-making in adventure sports coaching: the role of interaction.

PubMed

Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

2016-01-01

This qualitative study presents the view that coaching practice places demands on the coach's adaptability and flexibility. These requirements for being adaptive and flexible are met through a careful process of professional judgement and decision-making based on context-appropriate bodies of knowledge. Adventure sports coaches were selected for study on the basis that adventure sports create a hyper-dynamic environment in which these features can be examined. Thematic analysis revealed that coaches were generally well informed and practised with respect to the technical aspects of their sporting disciplines. Less positively, however, they often relied on ad hoc contextualisation of generalised theories of coaching practice to respond to the hyper-dynamic environments encountered in adventure sports. We propose that coaching practice reflects the demands of the environment, individual learning needs of the students and the task at hand. Together, these factors outwardly resemble a constraints-led approach but, we suggest, actually reflect manipulation of these parameters from a cognitive rather than an ecological perspective. This process is facilitated by a refined judgement and decision-making process, sophisticated epistemology and an explicit interaction of coaching components.

Simplified flexible-PON upstream transmission using pulse position modulation at ONU and DSP-enabled soft-combining at OLT for adaptive link budgets.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Effenberger, Frank; Chand, Naresh

2015-03-09

We demonstrate a flexible modulation and detection scheme for upstream transmission in passive optical networks using pulse position modulation at optical network unit, facilitating burst-mode detection with automatic decision threshold tracking, and DSP-enabled soft-combining at optical line terminal. Adaptive receiver sensitivities of -33.1 dBm, -36.6 dBm and -38.3 dBm at a bit error ratio of 10(-4) are respectively achieved for 2.5 Gb/s, 1.25 Gb/s and 625 Mb/s after transmission over a 20-km standard single-mode fiber without any optical amplification.

A Framework for a Decision Support System in a Hierarchical Extended Enterprise Decision Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boza, Andrés; Ortiz, Angel; Vicens, Eduardo; Poler, Raul

Decision Support System (DSS) tools provide useful information to decision makers. In an Extended Enterprise, a new goal, changes in the current objectives or small changes in the extended enterprise configuration produce a necessary adjustment in its decision system. A DSS in this context must be flexible and agile to make suitable an easy and quickly adaptation to this new context. This paper proposes to extend the Hierarchical Production Planning (HPP) structure to an Extended Enterprise decision making context. In this way, a framework for DSS in Extended Enterprise context is defined using components of HPP. Interoperability details have been reviewed to identify the impact in this framework. The proposed framework allows overcoming some interoperability barriers, identifying and organizing components for a DSS in Extended Enterprise context, and working in the definition of an architecture to be used in the design process of a flexible DSS in Extended Enterprise context which can reuse components for futures Extended Enterprise configurations.

Knowledge Flow Mesh and Its Dynamics: A Decision Support Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

paper was the ability of the United States military to achieve dominance through information superiority. The use of intelligent sensors and... Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, and individual Service intelligence agencies). In fact, these edge entities would... intelligence , design, choice, and implementation. 6. Support variety of decision processes and styles. 7. DSS should be adaptable and flexible. 8. DSS

Flexible Multi agent Algorithm for Distributed Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

How, J. P. Consensus - Based Auction Approaches for Decentralized task Assignment. Proceedings of the AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control...G. ; Kim, Y. Market- based Decentralized Task Assignment for Cooperative UA V Mission Including Rendezvous. Proceedings of the AIAA Guidance...scalable and adaptable to a variety of specific mission tasks . Additionally, the algorithm could easily be adapted for use on land or sea- based systems

Knowing When to Be "Rational": Flexible Economic Decision Making and Executive Function in Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Wendy S. C.; Carlson, Stephanie M.

2015-01-01

Failure to delay gratification may not indicate poor control or irrationality, but might be an adaptive response. Two studies investigated 3.5- and 4.5-year-old children's ability to adapt their delay and saving behavior when their preference (e.g., to delay or not delay) became nonadaptive. In Study 1 (N = 140), children's delay preference was…

Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

2017-04-01

Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

Robust path planning for flexible needle insertion using Markov decision processes.

PubMed

Tan, Xiaoyu; Yu, Pengqian; Lim, Kah-Bin; Chui, Chee-Kong

2018-05-11

Flexible needle has the potential to accurately navigate to a treatment region in the least invasive manner. We propose a new planning method using Markov decision processes (MDPs) for flexible needle navigation that can perform robust path planning and steering under the circumstance of complex tissue-needle interactions. This method enhances the robustness of flexible needle steering from three different perspectives. First, the method considers the problem caused by soft tissue deformation. The method then resolves the common needle penetration failure caused by patterns of targets, while the last solution addresses the uncertainty issues in flexible needle motion due to complex and unpredictable tissue-needle interaction. Computer simulation and phantom experimental results show that the proposed method can perform robust planning and generate a secure control policy for flexible needle steering. Compared with a traditional method using MDPs, the proposed method achieves higher accuracy and probability of success in avoiding obstacles under complicated and uncertain tissue-needle interactions. Future work will involve experiment with biological tissue in vivo. The proposed robust path planning method can securely steer flexible needle within soft phantom tissues and achieve high adaptability in computer simulation.

Mixture-based gatekeeping procedures in adaptive clinical trials.

PubMed

Kordzakhia, George; Dmitrienko, Alex; Ishida, Eiji

2018-01-01

Clinical trials with data-driven decision rules often pursue multiple clinical objectives such as the evaluation of several endpoints or several doses of an experimental treatment. These complex analysis strategies give rise to "multivariate" multiplicity problems with several components or sources of multiplicity. A general framework for defining gatekeeping procedures in clinical trials with adaptive multistage designs is proposed in this paper. The mixture method is applied to build a gatekeeping procedure at each stage and inferences at each decision point (interim or final analysis) are performed using the combination function approach. An advantage of utilizing the mixture method is that it enables powerful gatekeeping procedures applicable to a broad class of settings with complex logical relationships among the hypotheses of interest. Further, the combination function approach supports flexible data-driven decisions such as a decision to increase the sample size or remove a treatment arm. The paper concludes with a clinical trial example that illustrates the methodology by applying it to develop an adaptive two-stage design with a mixture-based gatekeeping procedure.

Adaptive Comanagement of a Marine Protected Area Network in Fiji

PubMed Central

WEEKS, REBECCA; JUPITER, STACY D

2014-01-01

Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. PMID:24112643

['FLEXIBLE WALLS' IN HOSPITALS - ASSESSING THE 'VALUE' OF SOCIAL IMPACT ON ARCHITECTURE].

PubMed

Tal, Orna; Tal, Shy-Lee

2018-05-01

: The development of hospital architecture is influenced by social trends, with mutual influence. Architecture enables 'organic-design' that leads to development, growth and adaptation of the structure to changing functions. A literature review reveals different perceptions of the flexibility of adapting hospital structure to changing needs, focusing on external forces pressures (expensive technologies, budgetary constraints limiting innovation implementation and regulatory barriers), as well as patients' demands. The degree of contribution of structural changes to the measured or perceived benefit to the patient and staff, has not yet been fully assessed. Expressions of this benefit are infection-control and increasing operational efficiency by energy saving and sustainability. To examine workers' perceptions towards value-based-architecture in relation to the patient or staff in a hospital setting. A survey was conducted among health care workers who underwent management training, using a structured questionnaire. Sixty responders ranked hospital leadership and relevant professionals (engineers and architects) as key players in the decision to change architecture in a hospital; economists, doctors and nurses were ranked as less important, while patients and families were ranked the lowest. Among the factors that contribute to the 'value' of the decision were the agility to adapt to emergency, and to changing morbidity trends in an efficient way. Factors ranked as being of medium importance were the contribution to hospital profitability and, to a lesser extent, the contribution to branding and improved service. 'Flexible walls' (shifting rooms between departments according to clinical need) can provide a response to morbidity changes. Hospital workers can play a role in the process of value-based architecture, thereby improving decisions concerning hospital construction and increasing their commitment to additional quality processes.

An efficient representation of spatial information for expert reasoning in robotic vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, Steven; Interrante, Mark

1987-01-01

The previous generation of robotic vehicles and drones was designed for a specific task, with limited flexibility in executing their mission. This limited flexibility arises because the robotic vehicles do not possess the intelligence and knowledge upon which to make significant tactical decisions. Current development of robotic vehicles is toward increased intelligence and capabilities, adapting to a changing environment and altering mission objectives. The latest techniques in artificial intelligence (AI) are being employed to increase the robotic vehicle's intelligent decision-making capabilities. This document describes the design of the SARA spatial database tool, which is composed of request parser, reasoning, computations, and database modules that collectively manage and derive information useful for robotic vehicles.

Impaired Flexible Reward-Based Decision-Making in Binge Eating Disorder: Evidence from Computational Modeling and Functional Neuroimaging.

PubMed

Reiter, Andrea M F; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Deserno, Lorenz

2017-02-01

Despite its clinical relevance and the recent recognition as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5, binge eating disorder (BED) has rarely been investigated from a cognitive neuroscientific perspective targeting a more precise neurocognitive profiling of the disorder. BED patients suffer from a lack of behavioral control during recurrent binge eating episodes and thus fail to adapt their behavior in the face of negative consequences, eg, high risk for obesity. To examine impairments in flexible reward-based decision-making, we exposed BED patients (n=22) and matched healthy individuals (n=22) to a reward-guided decision-making task during functional resonance imaging (fMRI). Performing fMRI analysis informed via computational modeling of choice behavior, we were able to identify specific signatures of altered decision-making in BED. On the behavioral level, we observed impaired behavioral adaptation in BED, which was due to enhanced switching behavior, a putative deficit in striking a balance between exploration and exploitation appropriately. This was accompanied by diminished activation related to exploratory decisions in the anterior insula/ventro-lateral prefrontal cortex. Moreover, although so-called model-free reward prediction errors remained intact, representation of ventro-medial prefrontal learning signatures, incorporating inference on unchosen options, was reduced in BED, which was associated with successful decision-making in the task. On the basis of a computational psychiatry account, the presented findings contribute to defining a neurocognitive phenotype of BED.

Impaired Flexible Reward-Based Decision-Making in Binge Eating Disorder: Evidence from Computational Modeling and Functional Neuroimaging

PubMed Central

Reiter, Andrea M F; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Deserno, Lorenz

2017-01-01

Despite its clinical relevance and the recent recognition as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5, binge eating disorder (BED) has rarely been investigated from a cognitive neuroscientific perspective targeting a more precise neurocognitive profiling of the disorder. BED patients suffer from a lack of behavioral control during recurrent binge eating episodes and thus fail to adapt their behavior in the face of negative consequences, eg, high risk for obesity. To examine impairments in flexible reward-based decision-making, we exposed BED patients (n=22) and matched healthy individuals (n=22) to a reward-guided decision-making task during functional resonance imaging (fMRI). Performing fMRI analysis informed via computational modeling of choice behavior, we were able to identify specific signatures of altered decision-making in BED. On the behavioral level, we observed impaired behavioral adaptation in BED, which was due to enhanced switching behavior, a putative deficit in striking a balance between exploration and exploitation appropriately. This was accompanied by diminished activation related to exploratory decisions in the anterior insula/ventro-lateral prefrontal cortex. Moreover, although so-called model-free reward prediction errors remained intact, representation of ventro–medial prefrontal learning signatures, incorporating inference on unchosen options, was reduced in BED, which was associated with successful decision-making in the task. On the basis of a computational psychiatry account, the presented findings contribute to defining a neurocognitive phenotype of BED. PMID:27301429

Individual consistency and flexibility in human social information use.

PubMed

Toelch, Ulf; Bruce, Matthew J; Newson, Lesley; Richerson, Peter J; Reader, Simon M

2014-02-07

Copying others appears to be a cost-effective way of obtaining adaptive information, particularly when flexibly employed. However, adult humans differ considerably in their propensity to use information from others, even when this 'social information' is beneficial, raising the possibility that stable individual differences constrain flexibility in social information use. We used two dissimilar decision-making computer games to investigate whether individuals flexibly adjusted their use of social information to current conditions or whether they valued social information similarly in both games. Participants also completed established personality questionnaires. We found that participants demonstrated considerable flexibility, adjusting social information use to current conditions. In particular, individuals employed a 'copy-when-uncertain' social learning strategy, supporting a core, but untested, assumption of influential theoretical models of cultural transmission. Moreover, participants adjusted the amount invested in their decision based on the perceived reliability of personally gathered information combined with the available social information. However, despite this strategic flexibility, participants also exhibited consistent individual differences in their propensities to use and value social information. Moreover, individuals who favoured social information self-reported as more collectivist than others. We discuss the implications of our results for social information use and cultural transmission.

Individual consistency and flexibility in human social information use

PubMed Central

Toelch, Ulf; Bruce, Matthew J.; Newson, Lesley; Richerson, Peter J.; Reader, Simon M.

2014-01-01

Copying others appears to be a cost-effective way of obtaining adaptive information, particularly when flexibly employed. However, adult humans differ considerably in their propensity to use information from others, even when this ‘social information’ is beneficial, raising the possibility that stable individual differences constrain flexibility in social information use. We used two dissimilar decision-making computer games to investigate whether individuals flexibly adjusted their use of social information to current conditions or whether they valued social information similarly in both games. Participants also completed established personality questionnaires. We found that participants demonstrated considerable flexibility, adjusting social information use to current conditions. In particular, individuals employed a ‘copy-when-uncertain’ social learning strategy, supporting a core, but untested, assumption of influential theoretical models of cultural transmission. Moreover, participants adjusted the amount invested in their decision based on the perceived reliability of personally gathered information combined with the available social information. However, despite this strategic flexibility, participants also exhibited consistent individual differences in their propensities to use and value social information. Moreover, individuals who favoured social information self-reported as more collectivist than others. We discuss the implications of our results for social information use and cultural transmission. PMID:24352950

Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, Erik; Hall, L. Embere; Varner, Johanna; Loosen, Anne E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Gahl, Megan K.; Smith, Felisa A.; Lawler, Joshua J.

2017-01-01

Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. However, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the limits or constraints on behavioral responses to changing conditions. Here, we characterize the contexts in which organisms respond to climate variability through behavior. First, we quantify patterns in behavioral responses across taxa with respect to timescales, climatic stimuli, life-history traits, and ecology. Next, we identify existing knowledge gaps, research biases, and other challenges. Finally, we discuss how conservation practitioners and resource managers can incorporate an improved understanding of behavioral flexibility into natural resource management and policy decisions.

Listeners are maximally flexible in updating phonetic beliefs over time.

PubMed

Saltzman, David; Myers, Emily

2018-04-01

Perceptual learning serves as a mechanism for listenexrs to adapt to novel phonetic information. Distributional tracking theories posit that this adaptation occurs as a result of listeners accumulating talker-specific distributional information about the phonetic category in question (Kleinschmidt & Jaeger, 2015, Psychological Review, 122). What is not known is how listeners build these talker-specific distributions; that is, if they aggregate all information received over a certain time period, or if they rely more heavily upon the most recent information received and down-weight older, consolidated information. In the present experiment, listeners were exposed to four interleaved blocks of a lexical decision task and a phonetic categorization task in which the lexical decision blocks were designed to bias perception in opposite directions along a "s"-"sh" continuum. Listeners returned several days later and completed the identical task again. Evidence was consistent with listeners using a relatively short temporal window of integration at the individual session level. Namely, in each individual session, listeners' perception of a "s"-"sh" contrast was biased by the information in the immediately preceding lexical decision block, and there was no evidence that listeners summed their experience with the talker over the entire session. Similarly, the magnitude of the bias effect did not change between sessions, consistent with the idea that talker-specific information remains flexible, even after consolidation. In general, results suggest that listeners are maximally flexible when considering how to categorize speech from a novel talker.

Adaptive management: The U.S. Department of the Interior technical guide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B K; Szaro, Robert C.; Shapiro, Carl D.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this technical guide is to present an operational definition of adaptive management, identify the conditions in which adaptive management should be considered, and describe the process of using adaptive management for managing natural resources. The guide is not an exhaustive discussion of adaptive management, nor does it include detailed specifications for individual projects. However, it should aid U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) managers and practitioners in determining when and how to apply adaptive management. Adaptive management is framed within the context of structured decision making, with an emphasis on uncertainty about resource responses to management actions and the value of reducing that uncertainty to improve management. Though learning plays a key role in adaptive management, it is seen here as a means to an end, namely good management, and not an end in itself. The operational definition used in the guide is adopted from the National Research Council, which characterizes adaptive management as an iterative learning process producing improved understanding and improved management over time: Adaptive management [is a decision process that] promotes flexible decision making that can be adjusted in the face of uncertainties as outcomes from management actions and other events become better understood. Careful monitoring of these outcomes both advances scientific understanding and helps adjust policies or operations as part of an iterative learning process. Adaptive management also recognizes the importance of natural variability in contributing to ecological resilience and productivity. It is not a ‘trial and error’ process, but rather emphasizes learning while doing. Adaptive management does not represent an end in itself, but rather a means to more effective decisions and enhanced benefits. Its true measure is in how well it helps meet environmental, social, and economic goals, increases scientific knowledge, and reduces tensions among stakeholders. Adaptive management as defined here involves ongoing, real-time learning and knowledge creation, both in a substantive sense and in terms of the adaptive process itself. It is described in what follows in a series of 9 steps, as summarized in section 4.1, involving stakeholder involvement, management objectives, management alternatives, predictive models, monitoring plans, decision making, monitoring responses to management, assessment, and adjustment to management actions. An adaptive approach actively engages stakeholders in all phases of a project over its timeframe, facilitating mutual learning and reinforcing the commitment to learning-based management. Adaptive management in DOI is implemented within a legal context that includes statutory authorities such as the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Endangered Species Act, and the Federal Advisory Committee Act. For many important problems now facing the resource management community, adaptive management holds great promise in reducing the uncertainties that limit the effective management of natural resource systems. For many conservation and management problems, utilizing management itself in an experimental context may be the only feasible way to gain the system understanding needed to improve management. Though it is commonly thought that an adaptive approach can produce results quickly at low cost, the opposite is more likely to be true. An initial investment of time and effort will increase the likelihood of better decision making and resource stewardship in the future, but patience, flexibility, and support are needed over the life of an adaptive management project. For these reasons it is important to carefully consider the potential use of an adaptive approach, and to engage in careful planning and evaluation when adaptive management is used.

Flexible design in water and wastewater engineering--definitions, literature and decision guide.

PubMed

Spiller, Marc; Vreeburg, Jan H G; Leusbrock, Ingo; Zeeman, Grietje

2015-02-01

Urban water and wastewater systems face uncertain developments including technological progress, climate change and urban development. To ensure the sustainability of these systems under dynamic conditions it has been proposed that technologies and infrastructure should be flexible, adaptive and robust. However, in literature it is often unclear what these technologies and infrastructure are. Furthermore, the terms flexible, adaptive and robust are often used interchangeably, despite important differences. In this paper we will i) define the terminology, ii) provide an overview of the status of flexible infrastructure design alternatives for water and wastewater networks and treatment, and iii) develop guidelines for the selection of flexible design alternatives. Results indicate that, with the exception of Net Present Valuation methods, there is little research available on the design and evaluation of technologies that can enable flexibility. Flexible design alternatives reviewed include robust design, phased design, modular design, modular/component platform design and design for remanufacturing. As developments in the water sector are driven by slow variables (climate change, urban development), rather than market forces, it is suggested that phased design or component platform designs are suitable for responding to change, while robust design is an option when operations face highly dynamic variability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Skimming the Surface: Teaching Kayak Support Strokes and Rolls.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Higgins, Peter; Morgan, Alastair

1997-01-01

Teaching novice kayakers only the biomechanics of a roll and other "closed" (nonadaptable) skills does not create opportunities for flexible skill development. A wider approach teaches support strokes and rolls by focusing on "open" skills that can be transferred or adapted to any situation, including emergency decision making,…

The costs and benefits of flexibility as an expression of behavioural plasticity: a primate perspective.

PubMed

van Schaik, Carel P

2013-05-19

Traditional neo-Darwinism ascribes geographical variation in morphology or in behaviour to varying selection on local genotypes. However, mobile and long-lived organisms cannot achieve local adaptation this way, leading to a renewed interest in plasticity. I examined geographical variation in orang-utan subsistence and social behaviour, and found this to be largely owing to behavioural plasticity, here called flexibility, both in the form of flexible individual decisions and of socially transmitted (cultural) innovations. Although comparison with other species is difficult, the extent of such flexibility is almost certainly limited by brain size. It is shown that brains can only increase relative to body size where the cognitive benefits they produce are reliably translated into improved survival rate. This means that organisms that are very small, face many predators, live in highly seasonal environments, or lack opportunities for social learning cannot evolve greater flexibility, and must achieve local adaptation through selection on specific genotypes. On the other hand, as body and brain size increase, local adaptation is increasingly achieved through selection on plasticity. The species involved are also generally those that most need it, being more mobile and longer-lived. Although high plasticity buffers against environmental change, the most flexible organisms face a clear limit because they respond slowly to selection. Thus, paradoxically, the largest-brained animals may actually be vulnerable to the more drastic forms of environmental change, such as those induced by human actions.

The role of noise in self-organized decision making by the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum.

PubMed

Meyer, Bernd; Ansorge, Cedrick; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

2017-01-01

Self-organized mechanisms are frequently encountered in nature and known to achieve flexible, adaptive control and decision-making. Noise plays a crucial role in such systems: It can enable a self-organized system to reliably adapt to short-term changes in the environment while maintaining a generally stable behavior. This is fundamental in biological systems because they must strike a delicate balance between stable and flexible behavior. In the present paper we analyse the role of noise in the decision-making of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum, an important model species for the investigation of computational abilities in simple organisms. We propose a simple biological experiment to investigate the reaction of P. polycephalum to time-variant risk factors and present a stochastic extension of an established mathematical model for P. polycephalum to analyze this experiment. It predicts that-due to the mechanism of stochastic resonance-noise can enable P. polycephalum to correctly assess time-variant risk factors, while the corresponding noise-free system fails to do so. Beyond the study of P. polycephalum we demonstrate that the influence of noise on self-organized decision-making is not tied to a specific organism. Rather it is a general property of the underlying process dynamics, which appears to be universal across a wide range of systems. Our study thus provides further evidence that stochastic resonance is a fundamental component of the decision-making in self-organized macroscopic and microscopic groups and organisms.

The role of noise in self-organized decision making by the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum

PubMed Central

Ansorge, Cedrick; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

2017-01-01

Self-organized mechanisms are frequently encountered in nature and known to achieve flexible, adaptive control and decision-making. Noise plays a crucial role in such systems: It can enable a self-organized system to reliably adapt to short-term changes in the environment while maintaining a generally stable behavior. This is fundamental in biological systems because they must strike a delicate balance between stable and flexible behavior. In the present paper we analyse the role of noise in the decision-making of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum, an important model species for the investigation of computational abilities in simple organisms. We propose a simple biological experiment to investigate the reaction of P. polycephalum to time-variant risk factors and present a stochastic extension of an established mathematical model for P. polycephalum to analyze this experiment. It predicts that—due to the mechanism of stochastic resonance—noise can enable P. polycephalum to correctly assess time-variant risk factors, while the corresponding noise-free system fails to do so. Beyond the study of P. polycephalum we demonstrate that the influence of noise on self-organized decision-making is not tied to a specific organism. Rather it is a general property of the underlying process dynamics, which appears to be universal across a wide range of systems. Our study thus provides further evidence that stochastic resonance is a fundamental component of the decision-making in self-organized macroscopic and microscopic groups and organisms. PMID:28355213

Fast and slow transitions in frontal ensemble activity during flexible sensorimotor behavior.

PubMed

Siniscalchi, Michael J; Phoumthipphavong, Victoria; Ali, Farhan; Lozano, Marc; Kwan, Alex C

2016-09-01

The ability to shift between repetitive and goal-directed actions is a hallmark of cognitive control. Previous studies have reported that adaptive shifts in behavior are accompanied by changes of neural activity in frontal cortex. However, neural and behavioral adaptations can occur at multiple time scales, and their relationship remains poorly defined. Here we developed an adaptive sensorimotor decision-making task for head-fixed mice, requiring them to shift flexibly between multiple auditory-motor mappings. Two-photon calcium imaging of secondary motor cortex (M2) revealed different ensemble activity states for each mapping. When adapting to a conditional mapping, transitions in ensemble activity were abrupt and occurred before the recovery of behavioral performance. By contrast, gradual and delayed transitions accompanied shifts toward repetitive responding. These results demonstrate distinct ensemble signatures associated with the start versus end of sensory-guided behavior and suggest that M2 leads in engaging goal-directed response strategies that require sensorimotor associations.

Less can be more: How to make operations more flexible and robust with fewer resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haksöz, ćaǧrı; Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2018-06-01

We review empirical evidence from practice and general theoretical conditions, under which simple rules of thumb can help to make operations flexible and robust. An operation is flexible when it responds adaptively to adverse events such as natural disasters; an operation is robust when it is less affected by adverse events in the first place. We illustrate the relationship between flexibility and robustness in the context of supply chain risk. In addition to increasing flexibility and robustness, simple rules simultaneously reduce the need for resources such as time, money, information, and computation. We illustrate the simple-rules approach with an easy-to-use graphical aid for diagnosing and managing supply chain risk. More generally, we recommend a four-step process for determining the amount of resources that decision makers should invest in so as to increase flexibility and robustness.

Assessing the Decision Process towards Bring Your Own Device

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koester, Richard F.

2017-01-01

Information technology continues to evolve to the point where mobile technologies--such as smart phones, tablets, and ultra-mobile computers have the embedded flexibility and power to be a ubiquitous platform to fulfill the entire user's computing needs. Mobile technology users view these platforms as adaptable enough to be the single solution for…

Strategy Generalization across Orientation Tasks: Testing a Computational Cognitive Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gunzelmann, Glenn

2008-01-01

Humans use their spatial information processing abilities flexibly to facilitate problem solving and decision making in a variety of tasks. This article explores the question of whether a general strategy can be adapted for performing two different spatial orientation tasks by testing the predictions of a computational cognitive model. Human…

To drink or grasp? How bullet ants ( Paraponera clavata) differentiate between sugars and proteins in liquids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jandt, Jennifer; Larson, Hannah K.; Tellez, Peter; McGlynn, Terrence P.

2013-12-01

Flexibility in behavior can increase the likelihood that a forager may respond optimally in a fluctuating environment. Nevertheless, physiological or neuronal constraints may result in suboptimal responses to stimuli. We observed foraging workers of the giant tropical ant (also referred to as the "bullet ant"), Paraponera clavata, as they reacted to liquid solutions with varying concentrations of sugar and protein. We show that when protein/sucrose concentration is high, many bullet ants will often try to grasp at the droplet, rather than gather it by drinking. Because P. clavata actively hunt for prey, fixed action patterns and rapid responses to protein may be adaptively important, regardless of the medium in which it is presented. We conclude that, in P. clavata, food-handling decisions are made in response to the nutrient content of the food rather than the texture of the food. Further, we suggest that colonies that maintain a mixture of individuals with consistent fixed or flexible behavioral responses to food-handling decisions may be better adapted to fluctuating environmental conditions, and we propose future studies that could address this.

Development and Application of Climate Services for Water Resources Planning and Management within the Department of Interior Bureau of Reclamation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raff, D. A.; Morgan, A.; Brekke, L. D.

2014-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is the nation's largest wholesale water supplier and the second largest producer of hydropower. Reclamation operates 337 reservoirs with a total storage capacity of 245 million acre-feet and operates 53 hydroelectric powerplants that annually produce, on average for the past 10 years, 40 billion kilowatt-hours. Reclamation is adapting to the impacts and future challenges posed by the changing climate through the development of new climate services as well as through cooperation with Federal, state, local, tribal, academic, and non-governmental partners in the use of climate and water resource information that may be available. Reclamation is utilizing this information within a strategy that has four goals: 1) Increase Water Management Flexibility, 2) Enhance Climate Adaptation Planning, 3) Improve Infrastructure Resiliency, and 4) Expand Information Sharing. Within this presentation we will focus on the utilization of climate services within each of these key goals of Reclamation's strategy. This includes the utilization of climate information to track and potentially improve reservoir management to increase water management flexibility, the development of climate informed hydrology that supports climate adaptation planning, use of climate information to inform decisions of infrastructure resilience, and climate services use for jointly informed water management decisions through education and web based services.

A Word to the Wise: Advice for Scientists Engaged in Collaborative Adaptive Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkinson, Peter; Huber, Ann; Saah, David S.; Battles, John J.

2017-05-01

Collaborative adaptive management is a process for making decisions about the environment in the face of uncertainty and conflict. Scientists have a central role to play in these decisions. However, while scientists are well trained to reduce uncertainty by discovering new knowledge, most lack experience with the means to mitigate conflict in contested situations. To address this gap, we drew from our efforts coordinating a large collaborative adaptive management effort, the Sierra Nevada Adaptive Management Project, to offer advice to our fellow environmental scientists. Key challenges posed by collaborative adaptive management include the confusion caused by multiple institutional cultures, the need to provide information at management-relevant scales, frequent turnover in participants, fluctuations in enthusiasm among key constituencies, and diverse definitions of success among partners. Effective strategies included a dedication to consistency, a commitment to transparency, the willingness to communicate frequently via multiple forums, and the capacity for flexibility. Collaborative adaptive management represents a promising, new model for scientific engagement with the public. Learning the lessons of effective collaboration in environmental management is an essential task to achieve the shared goal of a sustainable future.

How to deal with climate change uncertainty in the planning of engineering systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spackova, Olga; Dittes, Beatrice; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

The effect of extreme events such as floods on the infrastructure and built environment is associated with significant uncertainties: These include the uncertain effect of climate change, uncertainty on extreme event frequency estimation due to limited historic data and imperfect models, and, not least, uncertainty on future socio-economic developments, which determine the damage potential. One option for dealing with these uncertainties is the use of adaptable (flexible) infrastructure that can easily be adjusted in the future without excessive costs. The challenge is in quantifying the value of adaptability and in finding the optimal sequence of decision. Is it worth to build a (potentially more expensive) adaptable system that can be adjusted in the future depending on the future conditions? Or is it more cost-effective to make a conservative design without counting with the possible future changes to the system? What is the optimal timing of the decision to build/adjust the system? We develop a quantitative decision-support framework for evaluation of alternative infrastructure designs under uncertainties, which: • probabilistically models the uncertain future (trough a Bayesian approach) • includes the adaptability of the systems (the costs of future changes) • takes into account the fact that future decisions will be made under uncertainty as well (using pre-posterior decision analysis) • allows to identify the optimal capacity and optimal timing to build/adjust the infrastructure. Application of the decision framework will be demonstrated on an example of flood mitigation planning in Bavaria.

Lessons and challenges from adaptation pathways planning applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, M.; Lawrence, J.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Walker, W.; Timmermans, J.; Bloemen, P.; Thissen, W.

2015-12-01

Planning for adaptation to dynamic risks (e.g., because of climate change) is a critical need. The concept of 'adaptive policies' is receiving increasing attention as a way of performing strategic planning that is able to address many of the inherent challenges of uncertainty and dynamic change. Several approaches for developing adaptive policies are available in the literature. One approach, for which several applications already exist, is Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Pathway maps enable policy analysts, decision makers, and stakeholders to recognize potential 'locked-in' situations and to assess the flexibility, robustness, and efficacy of decision alternatives. Most of the applications of DAPP have been in deltas, coastal cities, or floodplains, often within the context of climate change adaptation. In this talk, we describe the DAPP approach and present a framework for designing signposts as adaptation signals, together with an illustrative application for the Rhine River in the Netherlands. We also draw lessons and challenges from pathways applications that differ in environment, culture, and institutional context. For example, the Dutch Delta Programme has used pathways to identify short-term decisions and long-term policy options. In Bangladesh, an application is in its early phase. Steps before generating pathways - such as long- term thinking in multiple possible futures and acknowledging uncertainties - are already a big challenge there. In New Zealand, the 'Sustainable Delta Game' has been used as the catalyst for pathways thinking by two local councils. This has led to its application in decision making for coastal and flood risk management and economic analysis of policy options.

Factors impeding flexible inpatient unit design.

PubMed

Pati, Debajyoti; Evans, Jennie; Harvey, Thomas E; Bazuin, Doug

2012-01-01

To identify and examine factors extraneous to the design decision-making process that could impede the optimization of flexibility on inpatient units. A 2006 empirical study to identify domains of design decisions that affect flexibility on inpatient units found some indication in the context of the acuity-adaptable operational model that factors extraneous to the design process could have negatively influenced the successful implementation of the model. This raised questions regarding extraneous factors that might influence the successful optimization of flexibility. An exploratory, qualitative method was adopted to examine the question. Stakeholders from five recently built acute care inpatient units participated in the study, which involved three types of data collection: (1) verbal protocol data from a gaming session; (2) in-depth semi-structured interviews; and (3) shadowing frontline personnel. Data collection was conducted between June 2009 and November 2010. The study revealed at least nine factors extraneous to the design process that have the potential to hinder the optimization of flexibility in four domains: (1) systemic; (2) cultural; (3) human; and (4) financial. Flexibility is critical to hospital operations in the new healthcare climate, where cost reduction constitutes a vital target. From this perspective, flexibility and efficiency strategies can be influenced by (1) return on investment, (2) communication, (3) culture change, and (4) problem definition. Extraneous factors identified in this study could also affect flexibility in other care settings; therefore, these findings may be viewed from the overall context of hospital design.

Role of Spontaneous Brain Activity in Explicit and Implicit Aspects of Cognitive Flexibility under Socially Conflicting Situations: A Resting-state fMRI Study using Fractional Amplitude of Low-frequency Fluctuations.

PubMed

Fujino, Junya; Tei, Shisei; Jankowski, Kathryn F; Kawada, Ryosaku; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2017-12-26

We are constantly exposed to socially conflicting situations in everyday life, and cognitive flexibility is essential for adaptively coping with such difficulties. Flexible goal choice and pursuit are not exclusively conscious, and therefore cognitive flexibility involves both explicit and implicit forms of processing. However, it is unclear how individual differences in explicit and implicit aspects of flexibility are associated with neural activity in a resting state. Here, we measured intrinsic fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF) by resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (RS-fMRI) as an indicator of regional brain spontaneous activity, together with explicit and implicit aspects of cognitive flexibility using the Cognitive Flexibility Scale (CFS) and Implicit Association Test (IAT). Consistent with the dual processing theory, there was a strong association between explicit aspects of flexibility (CFS score) and "rationalism" thinking style and between implicit aspects (IAT effect) and "experientialism." The level of explicit flexibility was also correlated with fALFF values in the left lateral prefrontal cortex, whereas the level of implicit flexibility was correlated with fALFF values in the right cerebellum. Furthermore, the fALFF values in both regions predicted individual preference for flexible decision-making strategy in a vignettes simulation task. These results add to our understanding of the neural mechanisms underlying flexible decision-making for solving social conflicts. More generally, our findings highlight the utility of RS-fMRI combined with both explicit and implicit psychometric measures for better understanding individual differences in social cognition. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Fiji.

PubMed

Weeks, Rebecca; Jupiter, Stacy D

2013-12-01

Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. Co-Manejo Adaptativo de una Red de Áreas Marinas Protegidas en Fiyi. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Making Decisions with the Future in Mind: Developmental and Comparative Identification of Mental Time Travel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suddendorf, T.; Busby, J.

2005-01-01

Mechanisms that produce behavior which increase future survival chances provide an adaptive advantage. The flexibility of human behavior is at least partly the result of one such mechanism, our ability to travel mentally in time and entertain potential future scenarios. We can study mental time travel in children using language. Current results…

Exploring Two Secondary Social Studies Teachers' Pedagogical Decision Making in Constrained and Flexible Curricular Contexts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meuwissen, Kevin William

2012-01-01

With current trends in K-12 education toward curriculum centralization and high-stakes test-based accountability, teachers are in a position of increasingly adapting their practices to demands that originate beyond the classroom. A synthesis of literature on the relationship between these external influences and secondary social studies teaching…

Neuromodulation of reward-based learning and decision making in human aging

PubMed Central

Eppinger, Ben; Hämmerer, Dorothea; Li, Shu-Chen

2013-01-01

In this paper, we review the current literature to highlight relations between age-associated declines in dopaminergic and serotonergic neuromodulation and adult age differences in adaptive goal-directed behavior. Specifically, we focus on evidence suggesting that deficits in neuromodulation contribute to older adults’ behavioral disadvantages in learning and decision making. These deficits are particularly pronounced when reward information is uncertain or the task context requires flexible adaptations to changing stimulus–reward contingencies. Moreover, emerging evidence points to age-related differences in the sensitivity to rewarding and aversive outcomes during learning and decision making if the acquisition of behavior critically depends on outcome processing. These age-related asymmetries in outcome valuation may be explained by age differences in the interplay of dopaminergic and serotonergic neuromodulation. This hypothesis is based on recent neurocomputational and psychopharmacological approaches, which suggest that dopamine and serotonin serve opponent roles in regulating the balance between approach behavior and inhibitory control. Studying adaptive regulation of behavior across the adult life span may shed new light on how the aging brain changes functionally in response to its diminishing resources. PMID:22023564

International and European law on protected areas and climate change: need for adaptation or implementation?

PubMed

Cliquet, A

2014-10-01

The protection and management of protected areas must be adapted to the effects of climate change. An important question is if the law on protected areas is capable of dealing with the required changes. In general, both international nature conventions and European Union nature conservation law do not contain any specific provisions on climate change and protected areas. Attention has been paid to this link in non-binding decisions and policy documents. In order to adapt the law to increased dynamics from climate change, more flexibility is needed. This flexibility should not be understood as "legal" flexibility, in the sense of the weakening nature conservation provisions. Scientific uncertainties on the effects of climate change might conflict with the need for legal certainties. In order to adapt to the effects of climate change, the two crucial elements are the strengthening of core protected areas and connectivity between the core areas. At the international level, both elements can be found in non-binding documents. International law enables the required adaptation; however, it often lacks concrete obligations. A stronger legal framework can be found at the level of the European Union. The Birds and Habitats Directives contain sufficient tools to deal with the effects of climate change. The Directives have been insufficiently implemented so far. Especially the central goals of reaching a favorable conservation status and connectivity measures need to be addressed much more in the future.

Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

Facial attractiveness: evolutionary based research.

PubMed

Little, Anthony C; Jones, Benedict C; DeBruine, Lisa M

2011-06-12

Face preferences affect a diverse range of critical social outcomes, from mate choices and decisions about platonic relationships to hiring decisions and decisions about social exchange. Firstly, we review the facial characteristics that influence attractiveness judgements of faces (e.g. symmetry, sexually dimorphic shape cues, averageness, skin colour/texture and cues to personality) and then review several important sources of individual differences in face preferences (e.g. hormone levels and fertility, own attractiveness and personality, visual experience, familiarity and imprinting, social learning). The research relating to these issues highlights flexible, sophisticated systems that support and promote adaptive responses to faces that appear to function to maximize the benefits of both our mate choices and more general decisions about other types of social partners.

Facial attractiveness: evolutionary based research

PubMed Central

Little, Anthony C.; Jones, Benedict C.; DeBruine, Lisa M.

2011-01-01

Face preferences affect a diverse range of critical social outcomes, from mate choices and decisions about platonic relationships to hiring decisions and decisions about social exchange. Firstly, we review the facial characteristics that influence attractiveness judgements of faces (e.g. symmetry, sexually dimorphic shape cues, averageness, skin colour/texture and cues to personality) and then review several important sources of individual differences in face preferences (e.g. hormone levels and fertility, own attractiveness and personality, visual experience, familiarity and imprinting, social learning). The research relating to these issues highlights flexible, sophisticated systems that support and promote adaptive responses to faces that appear to function to maximize the benefits of both our mate choices and more general decisions about other types of social partners. PMID:21536551

Flexible and adaptive water systems operations through more informed and dynamic decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

2016-12-01

Timely adapting the operations of water systems to be resilient against rapid changes in both hydroclimatic and socioeconomic forcing is generally recommended as a part of planning and managing water resources under uncertain futures. A great opportunity to make the operations more flexible and adaptive is offered by the unprecedented amount of information that is becoming available to water system operators, providing a wide range of data at increasingly higher temporal and spatial resolution. Yet, many water systems are still operated using very simple information systems, typically based on basic statistical analysis and the operator's experience. In this work, we discuss the potential offered by incorporating improved information to enhance water systems operation and increase their ability of adapting to different external conditions and resolving potential conflicts across sectors. In particular, we focus on the use of different variables associated to different dynamics of the system (slow and fast) diversely impacting the operating objectives on the short-, medium- and long-term. The multi-purpose operations of the Hoa Binh reservoir in the Red River Basin (Vietnam) is used to demonstrate our approach. Numerical results show that our procedure is able to automatically select the most valuable information for improving the Hoa Binh operations and mitigating the conflict between short-term objectives, i.e. hydropower production and flood control. Moreover, we also successfully identify low-frequency climate information associated to El-Nino Southern Oscillation for improving the performance in terms of long-term objectives, i.e. water supply. Finally, we assess the value of better informing operational decisions for adapting the system operations to changing conditions by considering different climate change projections.

A Markovian state-space framework for integrating flexibility into space system design decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafleur, Jarret M.

The past decades have seen the state of the art in aerospace system design progress from a scope of simple optimization to one including robustness, with the objective of permitting a single system to perform well even in off-nominal future environments. Integrating flexibility, or the capability to easily modify a system after it has been fielded in response to changing environments, into system design represents a further step forward. One challenge in accomplishing this rests in that the decision-maker must consider not only the present system design decision, but also sequential future design and operation decisions. Despite extensive interest in the topic, the state of the art in designing flexibility into aerospace systems, and particularly space systems, tends to be limited to analyses that are qualitative, deterministic, single-objective, and/or limited to consider a single future time period. To address these gaps, this thesis develops a stochastic, multi-objective, and multi-period framework for integrating flexibility into space system design decisions. Central to the framework are five steps. First, system configuration options are identified and costs of switching from one configuration to another are compiled into a cost transition matrix. Second, probabilities that demand on the system will transition from one mission to another are compiled into a mission demand Markov chain. Third, one performance matrix for each design objective is populated to describe how well the identified system configurations perform in each of the identified mission demand environments. The fourth step employs multi-period decision analysis techniques, including Markov decision processes from the field of operations research, to find efficient paths and policies a decision-maker may follow. The final step examines the implications of these paths and policies for the primary goal of informing initial system selection. Overall, this thesis unifies state-centric concepts of flexibility from economics and engineering literature with sequential decision-making techniques from operations research. The end objective of this thesis’ framework and its supporting tools is to enable selection of the next-generation space systems today, tailored to decision-maker budget and performance preferences, that will be best able to adapt and perform in a future of changing environments and requirements. Following extensive theoretical development, the framework and its steps are applied to space system planning problems of (1) DARPA-motivated multiple- or distributed-payload satellite selection and (2) NASA human space exploration architecture selection.

Translational studies of goal-directed action as a framework for classifying deficits across psychiatric disorders

PubMed Central

Griffiths, Kristi R.; Morris, Richard W.; Balleine, Bernard W.

2014-01-01

The ability to learn contingencies between actions and outcomes in a dynamic environment is critical for flexible, adaptive behavior. Goal-directed actions adapt to changes in action-outcome contingencies as well as to changes in the reward-value of the outcome. When networks involved in reward processing and contingency learning are maladaptive, this fundamental ability can be lost, with detrimental consequences for decision-making. Impaired decision-making is a core feature in a number of psychiatric disorders, ranging from depression to schizophrenia. The argument can be developed, therefore, that seemingly disparate symptoms across psychiatric disorders can be explained by dysfunction within common decision-making circuitry. From this perspective, gaining a better understanding of the neural processes involved in goal-directed action, will allow a comparison of deficits observed across traditional diagnostic boundaries within a unified theoretical framework. This review describes the key processes and neural circuits involved in goal-directed decision-making using evidence from animal studies and human neuroimaging. Select studies are discussed to outline what we currently know about causal judgments regarding actions and their consequences, action-related reward evaluation, and, most importantly, how these processes are integrated in goal-directed learning and performance. Finally, we look at how adaptive decision-making is impaired across a range of psychiatric disorders and how deepening our understanding of this circuitry may offer insights into phenotypes and more targeted interventions. PMID:24904322

Policy Driven Development: Flexible Policy Insertion for Large Scale Systems.

PubMed

Demchak, Barry; Krüger, Ingolf

2012-07-01

The success of a software system depends critically on how well it reflects and adapts to stakeholder requirements. Traditional development methods often frustrate stakeholders by creating long latencies between requirement articulation and system deployment, especially in large scale systems. One source of latency is the maintenance of policy decisions encoded directly into system workflows at development time, including those involving access control and feature set selection. We created the Policy Driven Development (PDD) methodology to address these development latencies by enabling the flexible injection of decision points into existing workflows at runtime , thus enabling policy composition that integrates requirements furnished by multiple, oblivious stakeholder groups. Using PDD, we designed and implemented a production cyberinfrastructure that demonstrates policy and workflow injection that quickly implements stakeholder requirements, including features not contemplated in the original system design. PDD provides a path to quickly and cost effectively evolve such applications over a long lifetime.

Stochastic Dynamics Underlying Cognitive Stability and Flexibility

PubMed Central

Ueltzhöffer, Kai; Armbruster-Genç, Diana J. N.; Fiebach, Christian J.

2015-01-01

Cognitive stability and flexibility are core functions in the successful pursuit of behavioral goals. While there is evidence for a common frontoparietal network underlying both functions and for a key role of dopamine in the modulation of flexible versus stable behavior, the exact neurocomputational mechanisms underlying those executive functions and their adaptation to environmental demands are still unclear. In this work we study the neurocomputational mechanisms underlying cue based task switching (flexibility) and distractor inhibition (stability) in a paradigm specifically designed to probe both functions. We develop a physiologically plausible, explicit model of neural networks that maintain the currently active task rule in working memory and implement the decision process. We simplify the four-choice decision network to a nonlinear drift-diffusion process that we canonically derive from a generic winner-take-all network model. By fitting our model to the behavioral data of individual subjects, we can reproduce their full behavior in terms of decisions and reaction time distributions in baseline as well as distractor inhibition and switch conditions. Furthermore, we predict the individual hemodynamic response timecourse of the rule-representing network and localize it to a frontoparietal network including the inferior frontal junction area and the intraparietal sulcus, using functional magnetic resonance imaging. This refines the understanding of task-switch-related frontoparietal brain activity as reflecting attractor-like working memory representations of task rules. Finally, we estimate the subject-specific stability of the rule-representing attractor states in terms of the minimal action associated with a transition between different rule states in the phase-space of the fitted models. This stability measure correlates with switching-specific thalamocorticostriatal activation, i.e., with a system associated with flexible working memory updating and dopaminergic modulation of cognitive flexibility. These results show that stochastic dynamical systems can implement the basic computations underlying cognitive stability and flexibility and explain neurobiological bases of individual differences. PMID:26068119

Contingency-based emotional resilience: effort-based reward training and flexible coping lead to adaptive responses to uncertainty in male rats

PubMed Central

Lambert, Kelly G.; Hyer, Molly M.; Rzucidlo, Amanda A.; Bergeron, Timothy; Landis, Timothy; Bardi, Massimo

2014-01-01

Emotional resilience enhances an animal's ability to maintain physiological allostasis and adaptive responses in the midst of challenges ranging from cognitive uncertainty to chronic stress. In the current study, neurobiological factors related to strategic responses to uncertainty produced by prediction errors were investigated by initially profiling male rats as passive, active or flexible copers (n = 12 each group) and assigning to either a contingency-trained or non-contingency trained group. Animals were subsequently trained in a spatial learning task so that problem solving strategies in the final probe task, as well-various biomarkers of brain activation and plasticity in brain areas associated with cognition and emotional regulation, could be assessed. Additionally, fecal samples were collected to further determine markers of stress responsivity and emotional resilience. Results indicated that contingency-trained rats exhibited more adaptive responses in the probe trial (e.g., fewer interrupted grooming sequences and more targeted search strategies) than the noncontingent-trained rats; additionally, increased DHEA/CORT ratios were observed in the contingent-trained animals. Diminished activation of the habenula (i.e., fos-immunoreactivity) was correlated with resilience factors such as increased levels of DHEA metabolites during cognitive training. Of the three coping profiles, flexible copers exhibited enhanced neuroplasticity (i.e., increased dentate gyrus doublecortin-immunoreactivity) compared to the more consistently responding active and passive copers. Thus, in the current study, contingency training via effort-based reward (EBR) training, enhanced by a flexible coping style, provided neurobiological resilience and adaptive responses to prediction errors in the final probe trial. These findings have implications for psychiatric illnesses that are influenced by altered stress responses and decision-making abilities (e.g., depression). PMID:24808837

Contingency-based emotional resilience: effort-based reward training and flexible coping lead to adaptive responses to uncertainty in male rats.

PubMed

Lambert, Kelly G; Hyer, Molly M; Rzucidlo, Amanda A; Bergeron, Timothy; Landis, Timothy; Bardi, Massimo

2014-01-01

Emotional resilience enhances an animal's ability to maintain physiological allostasis and adaptive responses in the midst of challenges ranging from cognitive uncertainty to chronic stress. In the current study, neurobiological factors related to strategic responses to uncertainty produced by prediction errors were investigated by initially profiling male rats as passive, active or flexible copers (n = 12 each group) and assigning to either a contingency-trained or non-contingency trained group. Animals were subsequently trained in a spatial learning task so that problem solving strategies in the final probe task, as well-various biomarkers of brain activation and plasticity in brain areas associated with cognition and emotional regulation, could be assessed. Additionally, fecal samples were collected to further determine markers of stress responsivity and emotional resilience. Results indicated that contingency-trained rats exhibited more adaptive responses in the probe trial (e.g., fewer interrupted grooming sequences and more targeted search strategies) than the noncontingent-trained rats; additionally, increased DHEA/CORT ratios were observed in the contingent-trained animals. Diminished activation of the habenula (i.e., fos-immunoreactivity) was correlated with resilience factors such as increased levels of DHEA metabolites during cognitive training. Of the three coping profiles, flexible copers exhibited enhanced neuroplasticity (i.e., increased dentate gyrus doublecortin-immunoreactivity) compared to the more consistently responding active and passive copers. Thus, in the current study, contingency training via effort-based reward (EBR) training, enhanced by a flexible coping style, provided neurobiological resilience and adaptive responses to prediction errors in the final probe trial. These findings have implications for psychiatric illnesses that are influenced by altered stress responses and decision-making abilities (e.g., depression).

Family planning and family vision in mothers after diagnosis of a child with autism spectrum disorder

PubMed Central

Navot, Noa; Jorgenson, Alicia Grattan; Stoep, Ann Vander; Toth, Karen; Webb, Sara Jane

2016-01-01

The diagnosis of a child with autism has short- and long-term impacts on family functioning. With early diagnosis, the diagnostic process is likely to co-occur with family planning decisions, yet little is known about how parents navigate this process. This study explores family planning decision making process among mothers of young children with autism spectrum disorder in the United States, by understanding the transformation in family vision before and after the diagnosis. A total of 22 mothers of first born children, diagnosed with autism between 2 and 4 years of age, were interviewed about family vision prior to and after their child’s diagnosis. Grounded Theory method was used for data analysis. Findings indicated that coherence of early family vision, maternal cognitive flexibility, and maternal responses to diagnosis were highly influential in future family planning decisions. The decision to have additional children reflected a high level of adaptability built upon a solid internalized family model and a flexible approach to life. Decision to stop childrearing reflected a relatively less coherent family model and more rigid cognitive style followed by ongoing hardship managing life after the diagnosis. This report may be useful for health-care providers in enhancing therapeutic alliance and guiding family planning counseling. PMID:26395237

Family planning and family vision in mothers after diagnosis of a child with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Navot, Noa; Jorgenson, Alicia Grattan; Vander Stoep, Ann; Toth, Karen; Webb, Sara Jane

2016-07-01

The diagnosis of a child with autism has short- and long-term impacts on family functioning. With early diagnosis, the diagnostic process is likely to co-occur with family planning decisions, yet little is known about how parents navigate this process. This study explores family planning decision making process among mothers of young children with autism spectrum disorder in the United States, by understanding the transformation in family vision before and after the diagnosis. A total of 22 mothers of first born children, diagnosed with autism between 2 and 4 years of age, were interviewed about family vision prior to and after their child's diagnosis. Grounded Theory method was used for data analysis. Findings indicated that coherence of early family vision, maternal cognitive flexibility, and maternal responses to diagnosis were highly influential in future family planning decisions. The decision to have additional children reflected a high level of adaptability built upon a solid internalized family model and a flexible approach to life. Decision to stop childrearing reflected a relatively less coherent family model and more rigid cognitive style followed by ongoing hardship managing life after the diagnosis. This report may be useful for health-care providers in enhancing therapeutic alliance and guiding family planning counseling. © The Author(s) 2015.

Hedonic quality or reward? A study of basic pleasure in homeostasis and decision making of a motivated autonomous robot.

PubMed

Lewis, Matthew; Cañamero, Lola

2016-10-01

We present a robot architecture and experiments to investigate some of the roles that pleasure plays in the decision making (action selection) process of an autonomous robot that must survive in its environment. We have conducted three sets of experiments to assess the effect of different types of pleasure-related versus unrelated to the satisfaction of physiological needs-under different environmental circumstances. Our results indicate that pleasure, including pleasure unrelated to need satisfaction, has value for homeostatic management in terms of improved viability and increased flexibility in adaptive behavior.

Active vision in satellite scene analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naillon, Martine

1994-01-01

In earth observation or planetary exploration it is necessary to have more and, more autonomous systems, able to adapt to unpredictable situations. This imposes the use, in artificial systems, of new concepts in cognition, based on the fact that perception should not be separated from recognition and decision making levels. This means that low level signal processing (perception level) should interact with symbolic and high level processing (decision level). This paper is going to describe the new concept of active vision, implemented in Distributed Artificial Intelligence by Dassault Aviation following a 'structuralist' principle. An application to spatial image interpretation is given, oriented toward flexible robotics.

Habitual control of goal selection in humans

PubMed Central

Cushman, Fiery; Morris, Adam

2015-01-01

Humans choose actions based on both habit and planning. Habitual control is computationally frugal but adapts slowly to novel circumstances, whereas planning is computationally expensive but can adapt swiftly. Current research emphasizes the competition between habits and plans for behavioral control, yet many complex tasks instead favor their integration. We consider a hierarchical architecture that exploits the computational efficiency of habitual control to select goals while preserving the flexibility of planning to achieve those goals. We formalize this mechanism in a reinforcement learning setting, illustrate its costs and benefits, and experimentally demonstrate its spontaneous application in a sequential decision-making task. PMID:26460050

Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization.

PubMed

Woodward, Michelle; Kapelan, Zoran; Gouldby, Ben

2014-01-01

It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex. All these elements pose severe difficulties to decisionmakers. This article describes a decision support methodology that has the capability to assess the most appropriate set of interventions to make in a flood system and the opportune time to make these interventions, given the future uncertainties. The flood risk strategies have been explicitly designed to allow for flexible adaptive measures by capturing the concepts of real options and multiobjective optimization to evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities. A state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time and a multiobjective genetic algorithm is utilized to search for the optimal adaptive strategies. The modeling system has been applied to a reach on the Thames Estuary (London, England), and initial results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous, while the outputs provide decisionmakers with supplementary knowledge that previously has not been considered. © 2013 HR Wallingford Ltd.

A universal hybrid decision tree classifier design for human activity classification.

PubMed

Chien, Chieh; Pottie, Gregory J

2012-01-01

A system that reliably classifies daily life activities can contribute to more effective and economical treatments for patients with chronic conditions or undergoing rehabilitative therapy. We propose a universal hybrid decision tree classifier for this purpose. The tree classifier can flexibly implement different decision rules at its internal nodes, and can be adapted from a population-based model when supplemented by training data for individuals. The system was tested using seven subjects each monitored by 14 triaxial accelerometers. Each subject performed fourteen different activities typical of daily life. Using leave-one-out cross validation, our decision tree produced average classification accuracies of 89.9%. In contrast, the MATLAB personalized tree classifiers using Gini's diversity index as the split criterion followed by optimally tuning the thresholds for each subject yielded 69.2%.

Homeostatic Regulation of Memory Systems and Adaptive Decisions

PubMed Central

Mizumori, Sheri JY; Jo, Yong Sang

2013-01-01

While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The “multiple memory systems of the brain” have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result in rigid and suboptimal decision making and memory as seen in addiction and neurological disease. © 2013 The Authors. Hippocampus Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:23929788

Homeostatic regulation of memory systems and adaptive decisions.

PubMed

Mizumori, Sheri J Y; Jo, Yong Sang

2013-11-01

While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The "multiple memory systems of the brain" have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result in rigid and suboptimal decision making and memory as seen in addiction and neurological disease. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Safe Operations of Unmanned Systems for Reconnaissance in Complex Environments Army Technology Objective (SOURCE ATO)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-25

must adapt its planning to vehicle size, shape, wheelbase, wheel and axle configuration, the specific obstacle-crossing capabilities of the vehicle...scalability of the ANS is a consequence of making each sensing modality capable of performing reasonable perception tasks while allowing a wider...autonomous system design achieves flexibility by exploiting redundant sensing modalities where possible, and by a decision-making process that

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

2016-04-01

Engineers and water managers have always incorporated uncertainty in water resources operations, design and planning. In recent years, concern has been growing concern that many of the fundamental principles to address uncertainty in planning and design are insufficient for coping with unprecedented shifts in climate, especially given the long lifetimes of water investments - spanning decades, even centuries. Can we design and operate new flood risk management, energy, water supply and sanitation, and agricultural projects that are robust to shifts over 20, 50, or more years? Since about 2009, better approaches to planning and designing under climate uncertainty have been gaining ground worldwide. The main challenge is to operationalize these approaches and bring them from science to practice, embed them within the existing decision-making processes of particular institutions, and shift from highly specialized "boutique" applications to methods that result in consistent, replicable outcomes accessible to water managers worldwide. With CRIDA a serious step is taken to achieve these goals. CRIDA is built on two innovative but complementary approaches that have developed in isolation across the Atlantic over the past seven years: diagnosing and assessing risk (decision scaling), and developing sequential decision steps to compensate for uncertainty within regulatory / performance standards (adaptation pathways). First, the decision scaling or "bottom up" framework to climate change adaptation was first conceptualized during the US/Canada Great Lakes regulation study and has recently been placed in a decision-making context for water-related investments published by the World Bank Second, the adaptation pathways approach was developed in the Netherlands to cope with the level of climate uncertainty we now face. Adaptation pathways is a tool for maintaining options and flexibility while meeting operational goals by envisioning how sequences of decisions can be navigated over time. They are part of the Dutch adaptive planning approach Adaptive Delta Management, executed and develop by the Dutch Delta program. Both decision scaling and adaptation pathways have been piloted in studies worldwide. The objective of CRIDA is to mainstream effective climate adaptation for professional water managers. The CRIDA publication, due in april 2016, follows the generic water design planning design cycle. At each step, CRIDA describes stepwise guidance for incorporating climate robustness: problem definition, stress test, alternatives formulation and recommendation, evaluation and selection. In the presentation the origin, goal, steps and practical tools available at each step of CRIDA will be explained. In two other abstracts ("Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region" by Gilroy et al., "The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia, by Kucharski et al.), the application of CRIDA to cases is explained

Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, J.; Song, L.; Zou, Q.; Guo, J.; Wang, Y.

2014-02-01

In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

[Clinical bioethics for primary health care].

PubMed

González-de Paz, L

2013-01-01

The clinical decision making process with ethical implications in the area of primary healthcare differs from other healthcare areas. From the ethical perspective it is important to include these issues in the decision making model. This dissertation explains the need for a process of bioethical deliberation for Primary Healthcare, as well as proposing a method for doing so. The decision process method, adapted to this healthcare area, is flexible and requires a more participative Healthcare System. This proposal involves professionals and the patient population equally, is intended to facilitate the acquisition of responsibility for personal and community health. Copyright © 2012 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Sequential planning of flood protection infrastructure under limited historic flood record and climate change uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-04-01

Flood protection is often designed to safeguard people and property following regulations and standards, which specify a target design flood protection level, such as the 100-year flood level prescribed in Germany (DWA, 2011). In practice, the magnitude of such an event is only known within a range of uncertainty, which is caused by limited historic records and uncertain climate change impacts, among other factors (Hall & Solomatine, 2008). As more observations and improved climate projections become available in the future, the design flood estimate changes and the capacity of the flood protection may be deemed insufficient at a future point in time. This problem can be mitigated by the implementation of flexible flood protection systems (that can easily be adjusted in the future) and/or by adding an additional reserve to the flood protection, i.e. by applying a safety factor to the design. But how high should such a safety factor be? And how much should the decision maker be willing to pay to make the system flexible, i.e. what is the Value of Flexibility (Špačková & Straub, 2017)? We propose a decision model that identifies cost-optimal decisions on flood protection capacity in the face of uncertainty (Dittes et al. 2017). It considers sequential adjustments of the protection system during its lifetime, taking into account its flexibility. The proposed framework is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis, using Decision Trees and Markov Decision Processes, and is fully quantitative. It can include a wide range of uncertainty components such as uncertainty associated with limited historic record or uncertain climate or socio-economic change. It is shown that since flexible systems are less costly to adjust when flood estimates are changing, they justify initially lower safety factors. Investigation on the Value of Flexibility (VoF) demonstrates that VoF depends on the type and degree of uncertainty, on the learning effect (i.e. kind and quality of information that we will gather in the future) and on the formulation of the optimization problem (risk-based vs. rule-based approach). The application of the framework is demonstrated on catchments in Germany. References: DWA (Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft Abwasser und Abfall eV.) 2011. Merkblatt DWA-M 507-1: Deiche an Fließgewässern. (A. Bieberstein, Ed.). Hennef: DWA Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser und Abfall e. V. Hall, J., & Solomatine, D. 2008. A framework for uncertainty analysis in flood risk management decisions. International Journal of River Basin Management, 6(2), 85-98. http://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635339 Špačková, O. & Straub, D. 2017. Long-term adaption decisions via fully and partially observable Markov decision processes. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure. In print.

IECON '87: Industrial applications of control and simulation; Proceedings of the 1987 International Conference on Industrial Electronics, Control, and Instrumentation, Cambridge, MA, Nov. 3, 4, 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartley, Tom T. (Editor)

1987-01-01

Recent advances in control-system design and simulation are discussed in reviews and reports. Among the topics considered are fast algorithms for generating near-optimal binary decision programs, trajectory control of robot manipulators with compensation of load effects via a six-axis force sensor, matrix integrators for real-time simulation, a high-level control language for an autonomous land vehicle, and a practical engineering design method for stable model-reference adaptive systems. Also addressed are the identification and control of flexible-limb robots with unknown loads, adaptive control and robust adaptive control for manipulators with feedforward compensation, adaptive pole-placement controllers with predictive action, variable-structure strategies for motion control, and digital signal-processor-based variable-structure controls.

Ten key principles for successful health systems integration.

PubMed

Suter, Esther; Oelke, Nelly D; Adair, Carol E; Armitage, Gail D

2009-01-01

Integrated health systems are considered part of the solution to the challenge of sustaining Canada's healthcare system. This systematic literature review was undertaken to guide decision-makers and others to plan for and implement integrated health systems. This review identified 10 universal principles of successfully integrated healthcare systems that may be used by decision-makers to assist with integration efforts. These principles define key areas for restructuring and allow organizational flexibility and adaptation to local context. The literature does not contain a one-size-fits-all model or process for successful integration, nor is there a firm empirical foundation for specific integration strategies and processes.

One night of sleep loss impairs innovative thinking and flexible decision making.

PubMed

Harrison, Y; Horne, J A

1999-05-01

Recent findings with clinically oriented neuropsychological tests suggest that one night without sleep causes particular impairment to tasks requiring flexible thinking and the updating of plans in the light of new information. This relatively little investigated field of sleep deprivation research has real-world implications for decision makers having lost a night's sleep. To explore this latter perspective further, we adapted a dynamic and realistic marketing decision making "game" embodying the need for these skills, and whereby such performance could be measured. As the task relied on the comprehension of a large amount of written information, a critical reasoning test was also administered to ascertain whether any failure at the marketing game might lie with information acquisition rather than with failures in decision making. Ten healthy highly motivated and trained participants underwent two counterbalanced 36 h trials, sleep vs no sleep. The critical reasoning task was unaffected by sleep loss, whereas performance at the game significantly deteri orated after 32-36 h of sleep loss, when sleep deprivation led to more rigid thinking, increased perseverative errors, and marked difficulty in appreciating an updated situation. At this point, and despite the sleep-deprived participants' best efforts to do well, their play collapsed, unlike that of the nonsleep-deprived participants. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

A decision underlies phototaxis in an insect

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Like a moth into the flame—phototaxis is an iconic example for innate preferences. Such preferences probably reflect evolutionary adaptations to predictable situations and have traditionally been conceptualized as hard-wired stimulus–response links. Perhaps for that reason, the century-old discovery of flexibility in Drosophila phototaxis has received little attention. Here, we report that across several different behavioural tests, light/dark preference tested in walking is dependent on various aspects of flight. If we temporarily compromise flying ability, walking photopreference reverses concomitantly. Neuronal activity in circuits expressing dopamine and octopamine, respectively, plays a differential role in photopreference, suggesting a potential involvement of these biogenic amines in this case of behavioural flexibility. We conclude that flies monitor their ability to fly, and that flying ability exerts a fundamental effect on action selection in Drosophila. This work suggests that even behaviours which appear simple and hard-wired comprise a value-driven decision-making stage, negotiating the external situation with the animal's internal state, before an action is selected. PMID:28003472

Coupling Adaptation Tipping Points and Engineering Options: New Insights for Resilient Water Infrastructure Replacement Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2017-12-01

This work presents an innovative approach for replacement planning for aging water infrastructure given uncertain future conditions. We draw upon two existing methodologies to develop an integrated long-term replacement planning framework. We first expand the concept of Adaptation Tipping Points to generate long-term planning timelines that incorporate drivers of investment related to both internal structural processes as well as changes in external operating conditions. Then, we use Engineering Options to explore different actions taken at key moments in this timeline. Contrasting to the traditionally more static approach to infrastructure design, designing the next generation of infrastructure so it can be changed incrementally is a promising method to safeguard current investments given future uncertainty. This up-front inclusion of structural options in the system actively facilitates future adaptation, transforming uncertainty management in infrastructure planning from reactive to more proactive. A two-part model underpins this approach. A simulation model generates diverse future conditions, allowing development of timelines of intervention moments in the structure's life. This feeds into an economic model, evaluating the lifetime performance of different replacement strategies, making explicit the value of different designs and their flexibility. A proof of concept study demonstrates this approach for a pumping station. The strategic planning timelines for this structure demonstrate that moments when capital interventions become necessary due to reduced functionality from structural degradation or changed operating conditions are widely spread over the structure's life. The disparate timing of these necessary interventions supports an incremental, adaptive mindset when considering end-of-life and replacement decisions. The analysis then explores different replacement decisions, varying the size and specific options included in the proposed new structure. Results show that incremental adaptive designs and incorporating options can improve economic performance, as compared to traditional, "build it once & build it big" designs. The benefit from incorporating flexibility varies with structural functionality, future conditions and the specific options examined.

Minimizing the regrets of long-term urban floodplain management decisions under deeply uncertain climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, J. S.; Kirshen, P. H.; Vogel, R. M.

2016-12-01

Making long-term floodplain management decisions under uncertain climate change is a major urban planning challenge of the 21stcentury. To support these efforts, we introduce a screening-level optimization model that identifies adaptation portfolios by minimizing the regrets associated with their flood-control and damage costs under different climate change trajectories that are deeply uncertain, i.e. have probabilities that cannot be specified plausibly. This mixed integer program explicitly considers the coupled damage-reduction impacts of different floodwall designs and property-scale investments (first-floor elevation, wet floodproofing of basements, permanent retreat and insurance), recommends implementation schedules, and assesses impacts to stakeholders residing in three types of homes. An application to a stylized municipality illuminates many nonlinear system dynamics stemming from large fixed capital costs, infrastructure design thresholds, and discharge-depth-damage relationships. If stakeholders tolerate mild damage, floodwalls that fully protect a community from large design events are less cost-effective than portfolios featuring both smaller floodwalls and property-scale measures. Potential losses of property tax revenue from permanent retreat motivate municipal property-tax initiatives for adaptation financing. Yet, insurance incentives for first-floor elevation may discourage locally financed floodwalls, in turn making lower-income residents more vulnerable to severe flooding. A budget constraint analysis underscores the benefits of flexible floodwall designs with low incremental expansion costs while near-optimal solutions demonstrate the scheduling flexibility of many property-scale measures. Finally, an equity analysis shows the importance of evaluating the overpayment and under-design regrets of recommended adaptation portfolios for each stakeholder and contrasts them to single-scenario model results.

The Efficacy of Blue-Green Infrastructure for Pluvial Flood Prevention under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babovic, Filip; Mijic, Ana; Madani, Kaveh

2017-04-01

Urban areas around the world are growing in size and importance; however, cities experience elevated risks of pluvial flooding due to the prevalence of impermeable land surfaces within them. Urban planners and engineers encounter a great deal of uncertainty when planning adaptations to these flood risks, due to the interaction of multiple factors such as climate change and land use change. This leads to conditions of deep uncertainty. Blue-Green (BG) solutions utilise natural vegetation and processes to absorb and retain runoff while providing a host of other social, economic and environmental services. When utilised in conjunction with Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methodologies, BG infrastructure provides a flexible and adaptable method of "no-regret" adaptation; resulting in a practical, economically efficient, and socially acceptable solution for flood risk mitigation. This work presents the methodology for analysing the impact of BG infrastructure in the context of the Adaptation Tipping Points approach to protect against pluvial flood risk in an iterative manner. An economic analysis of the adaptation pathways is also conducted in order to better inform decision-makers on the benefits and costs of the adaptation options presented. The methodology was applied to a case study in the Cranbrook Catchment in the North East of London. Our results show that BG infrastructure performs better under conditions of uncertainty than traditional grey infrastructure.

Community resilience as a metaphor, theory, set of capacities, and strategy for disaster readiness.

PubMed

Norris, Fran H; Stevens, Susan P; Pfefferbaum, Betty; Wyche, Karen F; Pfefferbaum, Rose L

2008-03-01

Communities have the potential to function effectively and adapt successfully in the aftermath of disasters. Drawing upon literatures in several disciplines, we present a theory of resilience that encompasses contemporary understandings of stress, adaptation, wellness, and resource dynamics. Community resilience is a process linking a network of adaptive capacities (resources with dynamic attributes) to adaptation after a disturbance or adversity. Community adaptation is manifest in population wellness, defined as high and non-disparate levels of mental and behavioral health, functioning, and quality of life. Community resilience emerges from four primary sets of adaptive capacities--Economic Development, Social Capital, Information and Communication, and Community Competence--that together provide a strategy for disaster readiness. To build collective resilience, communities must reduce risk and resource inequities, engage local people in mitigation, create organizational linkages, boost and protect social supports, and plan for not having a plan, which requires flexibility, decision-making skills, and trusted sources of information that function in the face of unknowns.

Persistent neuronal activity in human prefrontal cortex links perception and action

PubMed Central

Haller, Matar; Case, John; Crone, Nathan E.; Chang, Edward F.; King-Stephens, David; Laxer, Kenneth D.; Weber, Peter B.; Parvizi, Josef; Knight, Robert T.; Shestyuk, Avgusta Y.

2017-01-01

How do humans flexibly respond to changing environmental demands on a sub-second temporal scale? Extensive research has highlighted the key role of the prefrontal cortex in flexible decision-making and adaptive behavior, yet the core mechanisms that translate sensory information into behavior remain undefined. Utilizing direct human cortical recordings, we investigated the temporal and spatial evolution of neuronal activity, indexed by the broadband gamma signal, while sixteen participants performed a broad range of self-paced cognitive tasks. Here we describe a robust domain- and modality-independent pattern of persistent stimulus-to-response neural activation that encodes stimulus features and predicts motor output on a trial-by-trial basis with near-perfect accuracy. Observed across a distributed network of brain areas, this persistent neural activation is centered in the prefrontal cortex and is required for successful response implementation, providing a functional substrate for domain-general transformation of perception into action, critical for flexible behavior.

Dynamics modeling and adaptive control of flexible manipulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sasiadek, J. Z.

1991-01-01

An application of Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) to the position and force control of flexible manipulators and robots is presented. A single-link flexible manipulator is analyzed. The problem was to develop a mathematical model of a flexible robot that is accurate. The objective is to show that the adaptive control works better than 'conventional' systems and is suitable for flexible structure control.

Clark’s Nutcrackers (Nucifraga columbiana) Flexibly Adapt Caching Behavior to a Cooperative Context

PubMed Central

Clary, Dawson; Kelly, Debbie M.

2016-01-01

Corvids recognize when their caches are at risk of being stolen by others and have developed strategies to protect these caches from pilferage. For instance, Clark’s nutcrackers will suppress the number of caches they make if being observed by a potential thief. However, cache protection has most often been studied using competitive contexts, so it is unclear whether corvids can adjust their caching in beneficial ways to accommodate non-competitive situations. Therefore, we examined whether Clark’s nutcrackers, a non-social corvid, would flexibly adapt their caching behaviors to a cooperative context. To do so, birds were given a caching task during which caches made by one individual were reciprocally exchanged for the caches of a partner bird over repeated trials. In this scenario, if caching behaviors can be flexibly deployed, then the birds should recognize the cooperative nature of the task and maintain or increase caching levels over time. However, if cache protection strategies are applied independent of social context and simply in response to cache theft, then cache suppression should occur. In the current experiment, we found that the birds maintained caching throughout the experiment. We report that males increased caching in response to a manipulation in which caches were artificially added, suggesting the birds could adapt to the cooperative nature of the task. Additionally, we show that caching decisions were not solely due to motivational factors, instead showing an additional influence attributed to the behavior of the partner bird. PMID:27826273

Inter-individual differences in decision-making, flexible and goal-directed behaviors: novel insights within the prefronto-striatal networks.

PubMed

Fitoussi, Aurélie; Renault, Prisca; Le Moine, Catherine; Coutureau, Etienne; Cador, Martine; Dellu-Hagedorn, Françoise

2018-03-01

Inflexible behavior is a hallmark of several decision-making-related disorders such as ADHD and addiction. As in humans, a subset of healthy rats makes poor decisions and prefers immediate larger rewards despite suffering large losses in a rat gambling task (RGT). They also display a combination of traits reminiscent of addiction, notably inflexible behavior and perseverative responses. The goal of the present work was twofold: (1) to elucidate if behavioral inflexibility of poor decision-makers could be related to a lower quality of goal-directed behavior (action-outcome associations); (2) to uncover the neural basis of inter-individual differences in goal-directed behavior. We specifically assessed inter-individual differences in decision-making in the RGT, flexibility in the RGT-reversed version and goal-directed behavior in a contingency degradation test, i.e., response adaptation when dissociating reward delivery from the animal's action. The contributions of the medial prefrontal cortex and the dorsal striatum to action-outcome associations were assessed using Zif268 immunodetection. Inflexible behavior was related to a lower sensitivity to contingency degradation in all poor decision-makers and only in a few good decision-makers. This poorer sensitivity was associated with a lower immunoreactivity in prelimbic and infralimbic cortices and a higher one in the dorsomedial and dorsolateral striatum. These findings suggest that an imbalanced prefronto-striatal activity could underlie inaccurate goal representation in changing environments and may promote maladaptive habit formation among poor decision-makers. These data strengthen our previous work identifying biomarkers of vulnerability to develop psychiatric disorders and demonstrate the relevance of inter-individual differences to model maladaptive behaviors.

ADAPT: The Agent Development and Prototyping Testbed.

PubMed

Shoulson, Alexander; Marshak, Nathan; Kapadia, Mubbasir; Badler, Norman I

2014-07-01

We present ADAPT, a flexible platform for designing and authoring functional, purposeful human characters in a rich virtual environment. Our framework incorporates character animation, navigation, and behavior with modular interchangeable components to produce narrative scenes. The animation system provides locomotion, reaching, gaze tracking, gesturing, sitting, and reactions to external physical forces, and can easily be extended with more functionality due to a decoupled, modular structure. The navigation component allows characters to maneuver through a complex environment with predictive steering for dynamic obstacle avoidance. Finally, our behavior framework allows a user to fully leverage a character's animation and navigation capabilities when authoring both individual decision-making and complex interactions between actors using a centralized, event-driven model.

Adaptive History Biases Result from Confidence-Weighted Accumulation of past Choices

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Perceptual decision-making is biased by previous events, including the history of preceding choices: observers tend to repeat (or alternate) their judgments of the sensory environment more often than expected by chance. Computational models postulate that these so-called choice history biases result from the accumulation of internal decision signals across trials. Here, we provide psychophysical evidence for such a mechanism and its adaptive utility. Male and female human observers performed different variants of a challenging visual motion discrimination task near psychophysical threshold. In a first experiment, we decoupled categorical perceptual choices and motor responses on a trial-by-trial basis. Choice history bias was explained by previous perceptual choices, not motor responses, highlighting the importance of internal decision signals in action-independent formats. In a second experiment, observers performed the task in stimulus environments containing different levels of autocorrelation and providing no external feedback about choice correctness. Despite performing under overall high levels of uncertainty, observers adjusted both the strength and the sign of their choice history biases to these environments. When stimulus sequences were dominated by either repetitions or alternations, the individual degree of this adjustment of history bias was about as good a predictor of individual performance as individual perceptual sensitivity. The history bias adjustment scaled with two proxies for observers' confidence about their previous choices (accuracy and reaction time). Together, our results are consistent with the idea that action-independent, confidence-modulated decision variables are accumulated across choices in a flexible manner that depends on decision-makers' model of their environment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Decisions based on sensory input are often influenced by the history of one's preceding choices, manifesting as a bias to systematically repeat (or alternate) choices. We here provide support for the idea that such choice history biases arise from the context-dependent accumulation of a quantity referred to as the decision variable: the variable's sign dictates the choice and its magnitude the confidence about choice correctness. We show that choices are accumulated in an action-independent format and a context-dependent manner, weighted by the confidence about their correctness. This confidence-weighted accumulation of choices enables decision-makers to flexibly adjust their behavior to different sensory environments. The bias adjustment can be as important for optimizing performance as one's sensitivity to the momentary sensory input. PMID:29371318

Adaptive History Biases Result from Confidence-weighted Accumulation of Past Choices.

PubMed

Braun, Anke; Urai, Anne E; Donner, Tobias H

2018-01-25

Perceptual decision-making is biased by previous events, including the history of preceding choices: Observers tend to repeat (or alternate) their judgments of the sensory environment more often than expected by chance. Computational models postulate that these so-called choice history biases result from the accumulation of internal decision signals across trials. Here, we provide psychophysical evidence for such a mechanism and its adaptive utility. Male and female human observers performed different variants of a challenging visual motion discrimination task near psychophysical threshold. In a first experiment, we decoupled categorical perceptual choices and motor responses on a trial-by-trial basis. Choice history bias was explained by previous perceptual choices, not motor responses, highlighting the importance of internal decision signals in action-independent formats. In a second experiment, observers performed the task in stimulus environments containing different levels of auto-correlation and providing no external feedback about choice correctness. Despite performing under overall high levels of uncertainty, observers adjusted both the strength and the sign of their choice history biases to these environments. When stimulus sequences were dominated by either repetitions or alternations, the individual degree of this adjustment of history bias was about as good a predictor of individual performance as individual perceptual sensitivity. The history bias adjustment scaled with two proxies for observers' confidence about their previous choices (accuracy and reaction time). Taken together, our results are consistent with the idea that action-independent, confidence-modulated decision variables are accumulated across choices in a flexible manner that depends on decision-makers' model of their environment. Significance statement: Decisions based on sensory input are often influenced by the history of one's preceding choices, manifesting as a bias to systematically repeat (or alternate) choices. We here provide support for the idea that such choice history biases arise from the context-dependent accumulation of a quantity referred to as the decision variable: the variable's sign dictates the choice and its magnitude the confidence about choice correctness. We show that choices are accumulated in an action-independent format and a context-dependent manner, weighted by the confidence about their correctness. This confidence-weighted accumulation of choices enables decision-makers to flexibly adjust their behavior to different sensory environments. The bias adjustment can be as important for optimizing performance as one's sensitivity to the momentary sensory input. Copyright © 2018 Braun et al.

Hemispheric-scale wind selection facilitates bar-tailed godwit circum-migration of the Pacific

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gill, Robert E.; Douglas, David C.; Handel, Colleen M.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Hufford, Gary; Piersma, Theunis

2014-01-01

The annual 29 000 km long migration of the bar-tailed godwit, Limosa lapponica baueri, around the Pacific Ocean traverses what is arguably the most complex and seasonally structured atmospheric setting on Earth. Faced with marked variation in wind regimes and storm conditions across oceanic migration corridors, individuals must make critical decisions about when and where to fly during nonstop flights of a week's duration or longer. At a minimum, their decisions will affect wind profitability and thus reduce energetic costs of migration; in the extreme, poor decisions or unpredictable weather events will risk survival. We used satellite telemetry to track the annual migration of 24 bar-tailed godwits and analysed their flight performance relative to wind conditions during three major migration legs between nonbreeding grounds in New Zealand and breeding grounds in Alaska. Because flight altitudes of birds en route were unknown, we modelled flight efficiency at six geopotential heights across each migratory segment. Birds selected departure dates when atmospheric conditions conferred the greatest wind assistance both at departure and throughout their flights. This behaviour suggests that there exists a cognitive mechanism, heretofore unknown among migratory birds, that allows godwits to assess changes in weather conditions that are linked (i.e. teleconnected) across widely separated atmospheric regions. Godwits also showed adaptive flexibility in their response not only to cues related to seasonal changes in macrometeorology, such as spatial shifting of storm tracks and temporal periods of cyclogenesis, but also to cues associated with stochastic events, especially at departure sites. Godwits showed limits to their response behaviours, however, especially relative to rapidly developing stochastic events while en route. We found that flight efficiency depended significantly upon altitude and hypothesize that godwits exhibit further adaptive flexibility by varying flight altitude en route to optimize flight efficiency.

Experiments in structural dynamics and control using a grid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montgomery, R. C.

1985-01-01

Future spacecraft are being conceived that are highly flexible and of extreme size. The two features of flexibility and size pose new problems in control system design. Since large scale structures are not testable in ground based facilities, the decision on component placement must be made prior to full-scale tests on the spacecraft. Control law research is directed at solving problems of inadequate modelling knowledge prior to operation required to achieve peak performance. Another crucial problem addressed is accommodating failures in systems with smart components that are physically distributed on highly flexible structures. Parameter adaptive control is a method of promise that provides on-orbit tuning of the control system to improve performance by upgrading the mathematical model of the spacecraft during operation. Two specific questions are answered in this work. They are: What limits does on-line parameter identification with realistic sensors and actuators place on the ultimate achievable performance of a system in the highly flexible environment? Also, how well must the mathematical model used in on-board analytic redundancy be known and what are the reasonable expectations for advanced redundancy management schemes in the highly flexible and distributed component environment?

An Urban Resilience to Extreme Weather Events Framework for Development of Post Event Learning and Transformative Adaptation in Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solecki, W. D.; Friedman, E. S.; Breitzer, R.

2016-12-01

Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are becoming an immediate priority for urban coastal practitioners and stakeholders, adding complexity to decisions concerning risk management for short-term action and long-term needs of city climate stakeholders. The conflict between the prioritization of short versus long-term events by decision-makers creates disconnect between climate science and its applications. The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), a NOAA RISA team, is developing a set of mechanisms to help bridge this gap. The mechanisms are designed to promote the application of climate science on extreme weather events and their aftermath. It is in the post event policy window where significant opportunities for science-policy linkages exist. In particular, CCRUN is interested in producing actionable and useful information for city managers to use in decision-making processes surrounding extreme weather events and climate change. These processes include a sector specific needs assessment survey instrument and two tools for urban coastal practitioners and stakeholders. The tools focus on post event learning and connections between resilience and transformative adaptation. Elements of the two tools are presented. Post extreme event learning supports urban coastal practitioners and decision-makers concerned about maximizing opportunities for knowledge transfer and assimilation, and policy initiation and development following an extreme weather event. For the urban U.S. Northeast, post event learning helps coastal stakeholders build the capacity to adapt to extreme weather events, and inform and develop their planning capacity through analysis of past actions and steps taken in response to Hurricane Sandy. Connecting resilience with transformative adaptation is intended to promote resilience in urban Northeast coastal settings to the long-term negative consequences of extreme weather events. This is done through a knowledge co-production engagement process that links innovative and flexible adaptation pathways that can address requirements for short-term action and long-term needs.

Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, N.

2006-12-01

The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals of sustainable development on a regional scale.

The role of adaptive management as an operational approach for resource management agencies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, B.L.

1999-01-01

In making resource management decisions, agencies use a variety of approaches that involve different levels of political concern, historical precedence, data analyses, and evaluation. Traditional decision-making approaches have often failed to achieve objectives for complex problems in large systems, such as the Everglades or the Colorado River. I contend that adaptive management is the best approach available to agencies for addressing this type of complex problem, although its success has been limited thus far. Traditional decision-making approaches have been fairly successful at addressing relatively straightforward problems in small, replicated systems, such as management of trout in small streams or pulp production in forests. However, this success may be jeopardized as more users place increasing demands on these systems. Adaptive management has received little attention from agencies for addressing problems in small-scale systems, but I suggest that it may be a useful approach for creating a holistic view of common problems and developing guidelines that can then be used in simpler, more traditional approaches to management. Although adaptive management may be more expensive to initiate than traditional approaches, it may be less expensive in the long run if it leads to more effective management. The overall goal of adaptive management is not to maintain an optimal condition of the resource, but to develop an optimal management capacity. This is accomplished by maintaining ecological resilience that allows the system to react to inevitable stresses, and generating flexibility in institutions and stakeholders that allows managers to react when conditions change. The result is that, rather than managing for a single, optimal state, we manage within a range of acceptable outcomes while avoiding catastrophes and irreversible negative effects. Copyright ?? 1999 by The Resilience Alliance.

Flexibility in flood management design: proactive planning under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2016-12-01

This paper presents a value-enhancing approach for proactive planning and design of long-lived flood management infrastructure given uncertain future flooding threats. Designing infrastructure that can be adapted over time is a method to safeguard the efficacy of current design decisions given future uncertainties. We explore the value of embedding "options" in a physical structure, where an option is the right but not the obligation to do something at a later date (e.g. over-dimensioning a floodwall foundation now facilitates a future height addition in response to observed increases in sea level; building extra pump bays in a drainage pumping station enables the easy addition of pumping capacity whenever increased precipitation warrants an expansion.) The proposed approach couples a simulation model that captures future climate induced changes to the hydrologic operating environment of a structure, with an economic model that estimates the lifetime economic performance of alternative investment strategies. The economic model uses Real "In" Options analysis, a type of cash flow analysis that quantifies the implicit value of options and the flexibility they provide. We demonstrate the approach using replacement planning for the multi-functional pumping station IJmuiden on the North Sea Canal in the Netherlands. The analysis models flexibility in design decisions, varying the size and specific options included in the new structure. Results indicate that the incorporation of options within the structural design has the potential to improve its economic performance, as compared to more traditional, "build it once and build it big" designs where flexibility is not an explicit design criterion. The added value resulting from the incorporation of flexibility varies with the range of future conditions considered, and the specific options examined. This approach could be applied to explore investment strategies for the design of other flood management structures, as well as be expanded to look more at flexibility within an infrastructure network rather than a single structure. Flexibility in flood management design:proactive planning under uncertainty

Valuing physically and financially-induced flexibility in large-scale water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmant, Amaury; Pina, Jasson; Côté, Pascal

2017-04-01

In a world characterized by rapid changes in terms of water demands and supplies, there is a growing and persistent need for institutional reforms that promote cross-sectoral, adaptive management processes and policies. Yet, in many regions throughout the world, the continued expansion of supply-side infrastructure is still perceived as the way to go despite the rising financial, social and environmental costs. This trend is further compounded by the risks posed by climate change; reservoir storage, for example, is still perceived as a key element of climate change adaptation strategies in many countries. There is a growing concern that such strategies may result in a rigidity trap whereby the physical and institutional infrastructure become inflexible and unable to adapt to changes because they are mutually reinforcing each other. However, several authors have recently advocated for adaptive, flexible, management techniques involving a more diversified portfolio of measures whose management is regularly updated as new information about supplies and demands becomes available. Despite being conceptually attractive, such a management approach presents several challenges to policy makers. One of them is the sheer amount of information that must be processed each time a management decision must be taken. To address this issue, we propose an optimization framework that can be used to determine the optimal management of a large portfolio of physical and financial assets using various hydro-climatic information. This optimization framework is illustrated with the management of a power system in Quebec involving various power stations, reservoirs, power and energy contracts as well as hydrologic and climatic data. The results can be used to assess the economic value of the flexibility induced by either the physical assets (power stations and reservoirs) or by the financial ones (contracts), an information we believe is important to highlight the benefits of adaptive management techniques.

Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

PubMed

Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

2015-07-01

The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of more representative samples, which would contribute to an informed and legitimate decision-making process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

2014-12-01

Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture, urban, industrial) on a spatially distributed basis. The resulting combinations of climate scenarios and adaptation responses were subjected to a combined hydro-economic assessment based on the degree of water security together with its cost-effectiveness against the Business-as-usual scenario.

Multitasking as a choice: a perspective.

PubMed

Broeker, Laura; Liepelt, Roman; Poljac, Edita; Künzell, Stefan; Ewolds, Harald; de Oliveira, Rita F; Raab, Markus

2018-01-01

Performance decrements in multitasking have been explained by limitations in cognitive capacity, either modelled as static structural bottlenecks or as the scarcity of overall cognitive resources that prevent humans, or at least restrict them, from processing two tasks at the same time. However, recent research has shown that individual differences, flexible resource allocation, and prioritization of tasks cannot be fully explained by these accounts. We argue that understanding human multitasking as a choice and examining multitasking performance from the perspective of judgment and decision-making (JDM), may complement current dual-task theories. We outline two prominent theories from the area of JDM, namely Simple Heuristics and the Decision Field Theory, and adapt these theories to multitasking research. Here, we explain how computational modelling techniques and decision-making parameters used in JDM may provide a benefit to understanding multitasking costs and argue that these techniques and parameters have the potential to predict multitasking behavior in general, and also individual differences in behavior. Finally, we present the one-reason choice metaphor to explain a flexible use of limited capacity as well as changes in serial and parallel task processing. Based on this newly combined approach, we outline a concrete interdisciplinary future research program that we think will help to further develop multitasking research.

Adaptive management for a turbulent future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, J.J.; Pope, K.L.; Garmestani, A.S.

2011-01-01

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management. ?? 2010 .

Adaptive Management for a Turbulent Future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, Joseph J.; Pope, Kevin L.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

2011-01-01

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Microsimulation Modeling for Health Decision Sciences Using R: A Tutorial.

PubMed

Krijkamp, Eline M; Alarid-Escudero, Fernando; Enns, Eva A; Jalal, Hawre J; Hunink, M G Myriam; Pechlivanoglou, Petros

2018-04-01

Microsimulation models are becoming increasingly common in the field of decision modeling for health. Because microsimulation models are computationally more demanding than traditional Markov cohort models, the use of computer programming languages in their development has become more common. R is a programming language that has gained recognition within the field of decision modeling. It has the capacity to perform microsimulation models more efficiently than software commonly used for decision modeling, incorporate statistical analyses within decision models, and produce more transparent models and reproducible results. However, no clear guidance for the implementation of microsimulation models in R exists. In this tutorial, we provide a step-by-step guide to build microsimulation models in R and illustrate the use of this guide on a simple, but transferable, hypothetical decision problem. We guide the reader through the necessary steps and provide generic R code that is flexible and can be adapted for other models. We also show how this code can be extended to address more complex model structures and provide an efficient microsimulation approach that relies on vectorization solutions.

Sharing the cost of river basin adaptation portfolios to climate change: Insights from social justice and cooperative game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-10-01

The adaptation of water resource systems to the potential impacts of climate change requires mixed portfolios of supply and demand adaptation measures. The issue is not only to select efficient, robust, and flexible adaptation portfolios but also to find equitable strategies of cost allocation among the stakeholders. Our work addresses such cost allocation problems by applying two different theoretical approaches: social justice and cooperative game theory in a real case study. First of all, a cost-effective portfolio of adaptation measures at the basin scale is selected using a least-cost optimization model. Cost allocation solutions are then defined based on economic rationality concepts from cooperative game theory (the Core). Second, interviews are conducted to characterize stakeholders' perceptions of social justice principles associated with the definition of alternatives cost allocation rules. The comparison of the cost allocation scenarios leads to contrasted insights in order to inform the decision-making process at the river basin scale and potentially reap the efficiency gains from cooperation in the design of river basin adaptation portfolios.

SMART empirical approaches for predicting field performance of PV modules from results of reliability tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardikar, Kedar Y.; Liu, Bill J. J.; Bheemreddy, Venkata

2016-09-01

Gaining an understanding of degradation mechanisms and their characterization are critical in developing relevant accelerated tests to ensure PV module performance warranty over a typical lifetime of 25 years. As newer technologies are adapted for PV, including new PV cell technologies, new packaging materials, and newer product designs, the availability of field data over extended periods of time for product performance assessment cannot be expected within the typical timeframe for business decisions. In this work, to enable product design decisions and product performance assessment for PV modules utilizing newer technologies, Simulation and Mechanism based Accelerated Reliability Testing (SMART) methodology and empirical approaches to predict field performance from accelerated test results are presented. The method is demonstrated for field life assessment of flexible PV modules based on degradation mechanisms observed in two accelerated tests, namely, Damp Heat and Thermal Cycling. The method is based on design of accelerated testing scheme with the intent to develop relevant acceleration factor models. The acceleration factor model is validated by extensive reliability testing under different conditions going beyond the established certification standards. Once the acceleration factor model is validated for the test matrix a modeling scheme is developed to predict field performance from results of accelerated testing for particular failure modes of interest. Further refinement of the model can continue as more field data becomes available. While the demonstration of the method in this work is for thin film flexible PV modules, the framework and methodology can be adapted to other PV products.

From Resource-Adaptive Navigation Assistance to Augmented Cognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmer, Hubert D.; Münzer, Stefan; Baus, Jörg

In an assistance scenario, a computer provides purposive information supporting a human user in an everyday situation. Wayfinding with navigation assistance is a prototypical assistance scenario. The present chapter analyzes the interplay of the resources of the assistance system and the resources of the user. The navigation assistance system provides geographic knowledge, positioning information, route planning, spatial overview information, and route commands at decision points. The user's resources encompass spatial knowledge, spatial abilities and visuo-spatial working memory, orientation strategies, and cultural habit. Flexible adaptations of the assistance system to available resources of the user are described, taking different wayfinding goals, situational constraints, and individual differences into account. Throughout the chapter, the idea is pursued that the available resources of the user should be kept active.

Structural flexibility and protein adaptation to temperature: Molecular dynamics analysis of malate dehydrogenases of marine molluscs.

PubMed

Dong, Yun-Wei; Liao, Ming-Ling; Meng, Xian-Liang; Somero, George N

2018-02-06

Orthologous proteins of species adapted to different temperatures exhibit differences in stability and function that are interpreted to reflect adaptive variation in structural "flexibility." However, quantifying flexibility and comparing flexibility across proteins has remained a challenge. To address this issue, we examined temperature effects on cytosolic malate dehydrogenase (cMDH) orthologs from differently thermally adapted congeners of five genera of marine molluscs whose field body temperatures span a range of ∼60 °C. We describe consistent patterns of convergent evolution in adaptation of function [temperature effects on K M of cofactor (NADH)] and structural stability (rate of heat denaturation of activity). To determine how these differences depend on flexibilities of overall structure and of regions known to be important in binding and catalysis, we performed molecular dynamics simulation (MDS) analyses. MDS analyses revealed a significant negative correlation between adaptation temperature and heat-induced increase of backbone atom movements [root mean square deviation (rmsd) of main-chain atoms]. Root mean square fluctuations (RMSFs) of movement by individual amino acid residues varied across the sequence in a qualitatively similar pattern among orthologs. Regions of sequence involved in ligand binding and catalysis-termed mobile regions 1 and 2 (MR1 and MR2), respectively-showed the largest values for RMSF. Heat-induced changes in RMSF values across the sequence and, importantly, in MR1 and MR2 were greatest in cold-adapted species. MDS methods are shown to provide powerful tools for examining adaptation of enzymes by providing a quantitative index of protein flexibility and identifying sequence regions where adaptive change in flexibility occurs.

The analysis and large-angle control of a flexible beam using an adaptive truss

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warrington, Thomas J.; Clark, William W.; Robertshaw, Harry H.; Horner, C. Garnett

1991-01-01

This preliminary study of an adaptive truss slewing problem investigates the static positioning of an adaptive truss at slewed orientations and the dynamic vibrations of an attached flexible beam. A nonlinear model of an adaptive truss and flexible beam is derived. Linear control laws are developed and simulated for various truss configurations. Results show the linear control laws developed at a slewed configuration perform best at that configuration.

Mechanisms Underlying Decision-Making as Revealed by Deep-Brain Stimulation in Patients with Parkinson's Disease.

PubMed

Herz, Damian M; Little, Simon; Pedrosa, David J; Tinkhauser, Gerd; Cheeran, Binith; Foltynie, Tom; Bogacz, Rafal; Brown, Peter

2018-04-23

To optimally balance opposing demands of speed and accuracy during decision-making, we must flexibly adapt how much evidence we require before making a choice. Such adjustments in decision thresholds have been linked to the subthalamic nucleus (STN), and therapeutic STN deep-brain stimulation (DBS) has been shown to interfere with this function. Here, we performed continuous as well as closed-loop DBS of the STN while Parkinson's disease patients performed a perceptual decision-making task. Closed-loop STN DBS allowed temporally patterned STN stimulation and simultaneous recordings of STN activity. This revealed that DBS only affected patients' ability to adjust decision thresholds if applied in a specific temporally confined time window during deliberation. Only stimulation in that window diminished the normal slowing of response times that occurred on difficult trials when DBS was turned off. Furthermore, DBS eliminated a relative, time-specific increase in STN beta oscillations and compromised its functional relationship with trial-by-trial adjustments in decision thresholds. Together, these results provide causal evidence that the STN is involved in adjusting decision thresholds in distinct, time-limited processing windows during deliberation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

2011-12-01

Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this system of systems approach could help the local governments and concerned institutions worldwide to adapt to gradually changing environmental conditions as well as manage impacts of extreme events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes, and storm surges.

Sleep Deprivation Diminishes Attentional Control Effectiveness and Impairs Flexible Adaptation to Changing Conditions.

PubMed

Whitney, Paul; Hinson, John M; Satterfield, Brieann C; Grant, Devon A; Honn, Kimberly A; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2017-11-22

Insufficient sleep is a global public health problem resulting in catastrophic accidents, increased mortality, and hundreds of billions of dollars in lost productivity. Yet the effect of sleep deprivation (SD) on decision making and performance is often underestimated by fatigued individuals and is only beginning to be understood by scientists. The deleterious impact of SD is frequently attributed to lapses in vigilant attention, but this account fails to explain many SD-related problems, such as loss of situational awareness and perseveration. Using a laboratory study protocol, we show that SD individuals can maintain information in the focus of attention and anticipate likely correct responses, but their use of such a top-down attentional strategy is less effective at preventing errors caused by competing responses. Moreover, when the task environment requires flexibility, performance under SD suffers dramatically. The impairment in flexible shifting of attentional control we observed is distinct from lapses in vigilant attention, as corroborated by the specificity of the influence of a genetic biomarker, the dopaminergic polymorphism DRD2 C957T. Reduced effectiveness of top-down attentional control under SD, especially when conditions require flexibility, helps to explain maladaptive performance that is not readily explained by lapses in vigilant attention.

FPGA implementation of advanced FEC schemes for intelligent aggregation networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Ding; Djordjevic, Ivan B.

2016-02-01

In state-of-the-art fiber-optics communication systems the fixed forward error correction (FEC) and constellation size are employed. While it is important to closely approach the Shannon limit by using turbo product codes (TPC) and low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes with soft-decision decoding (SDD) algorithm; rate-adaptive techniques, which enable increased information rates over short links and reliable transmission over long links, are likely to become more important with ever-increasing network traffic demands. In this invited paper, we describe a rate adaptive non-binary LDPC coding technique, and demonstrate its flexibility and good performance exhibiting no error floor at BER down to 10-15 in entire code rate range, by FPGA-based emulation, making it a viable solution in the next-generation high-speed intelligent aggregation networks.

Grant programs : design features shape flexibility, accountability, and performance information

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-06-01

Flexible grants--block grants and similar programs that give state or local governments the flexibility to adapt funded activities to fit the state or local context--are an adaptable policy tool and are found in fields from urban transit to community...

Emergence, institutionalization and renewal: Rhythms of adaptive governance in complex social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Chaffin, Brian C; Gunderson, Lance H

2016-01-01

Adaptive governance provides the capacity for environmental managers and decision makers to confront variable degrees of uncertainty inherent to complex social-ecological systems. Current theoretical conceptualizations of adaptive governance represent a series of structures and processes best suited for either adapting or transforming existing environmental governance regimes towards forms flexible enough to confront rapid ecological change. As the number of empirical examples of adaptive governance described in the literature grows, the conceptual basis of adaptive governance remains largely under theorized. We argue that reconnecting adaptive governance with foundational concepts of ecological resilience-specifically Panarchy and the adaptive cycle of complex systems-highlights the importance of episodic disturbances and cross-scale interactions in triggering reorganizations in governance. By envisioning the processes of adaptive governance through the lens of Panarchy, scholars and practitioners alike will be better able to identify the emergence of adaptive governance, as well as take advantage of opportunities to institutionalize this type of governance in pursuit of sustainability outcomes. The synergistic analysis of adaptive governance and Panarchy can provide critical insight for analyzing the role of social dynamics during oscillating periods of stability and instability in social-ecological systems. A deeper understanding of the potential for cross-scale interactions to shape adaptive governance regimes may be useful as society faces the challenge of mitigating the impacts of global environmental change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transfer of Learning Relates to Intrinsic Connectivity between Hippocampus, Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex, and Large-Scale Networks

PubMed Central

Gerraty, Raphael T.; Davidow, Juliet Y.; Wimmer, G. Elliott; Kahn, Itamar

2014-01-01

An important aspect of adaptive learning is the ability to flexibly use past experiences to guide new decisions. When facing a new decision, some people automatically leverage previously learned associations, while others do not. This variability in transfer of learning across individuals has been demonstrated repeatedly and has important implications for understanding adaptive behavior, yet the source of these individual differences remains poorly understood. In particular, it is unknown why such variability in transfer emerges even among homogeneous groups of young healthy participants who do not vary on other learning-related measures. Here we hypothesized that individual differences in the transfer of learning could be related to relatively stable differences in intrinsic brain connectivity, which could constrain how individuals learn. To test this, we obtained a behavioral measure of memory-based transfer outside of the scanner and on a separate day acquired resting-state functional MRI images in 42 participants. We then analyzed connectivity across independent component analysis-derived brain networks during rest, and tested whether intrinsic connectivity in learning-related networks was associated with transfer. We found that individual differences in transfer were related to intrinsic connectivity between the hippocampus and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and between these regions and large-scale functional brain networks. Together, the findings demonstrate a novel role for intrinsic brain dynamics in flexible learning-guided behavior, both within a set of functionally specific regions known to be important for learning, as well as between these regions and the default and frontoparietal networks, which are thought to serve more general cognitive functions. PMID:25143610

Balancing Flexible Constraints and Measurement Precision in Computerized Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moyer, Eric L.; Galindo, Jennifer L.; Dodd, Barbara G.

2012-01-01

Managing test specifications--both multiple nonstatistical constraints and flexibly defined constraints--has become an important part of designing item selection procedures for computerized adaptive tests (CATs) in achievement testing. This study compared the effectiveness of three procedures: constrained CAT, flexible modified constrained CAT,…

Integrating Ecosystem-Based Management Principles of Adaptive Management and Stakeholder Engagement in California Fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, A.; Martone, R. G.; Hazen, L.; Mease, L.; Gourlie, D.; Le Cornu, E.; Ourens, R.; Micheli, F.

2016-12-01

California's fisheries management law, the Marine Life Management Act (MLMA) of 1998, signaled a transformative shift from traditional single-species management to an ecosystem-based approach. In response, the fisheries management community in California is striving to integrate new science and management innovations while maximizing its limited capacity. However, data gaps, high compliance costs, capacity constraints, and limited access to the best available data and technologies persist. Here we present two decision support tools being developed to aid California fisheries managers as they continue to implement ecosystem-based management (EBM). First, to practice adaptive management, a key principle of EBM, managers must know whether and how their decisions are meeting their management objectives over time. Based on a cross-walk of MLMA goals with metrics and indicators from sustainable fishery certification programs, we present a flexible and practical tool for tracking fishery management performance in California. We showcase a draft series of decision trees and questionnaires managers can use to quantitatively or qualitatively measure both ecological and social outcomes, helping them to prioritize management options and limited resources. Second, state fisheries managers acknowledge the need for more effective stakeholder engagement to facilitate and inform decision-making and long-term outcomes, another key principle of EBM. Here, we present a pilot version of a decision-support tool to aid managers in choosing the most appropriate stakeholder engagement strategies in various types of decision contexts. This online tool will help staff identify their engagement goals, when they can strategically engage stakeholders based on their needs, and the fishery characteristics that will inform how engagement strategies are tailored to specific contexts. We also share opportunities to expand these EBM tools to other resource management contexts and scales.

Integrating Ecosystem-Based Management Principles of Adaptive Management and Stakeholder Engagement in California Fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, A.; Martone, R. G.; Hazen, L.; Mease, L.; Gourlie, D.; Le Cornu, E.; Ourens, R.; Micheli, F.

2016-02-01

California's fisheries management law, the Marine Life Management Act (MLMA) of 1998, signaled a transformative shift from traditional single-species management to an ecosystem-based approach. In response, the fisheries management community in California is striving to integrate new science and management innovations while maximizing its limited capacity. However, data gaps, high compliance costs, capacity constraints, and limited access to the best available data and technologies persist. Here we present two decision support tools being developed to aid California fisheries managers as they continue to implement ecosystem-based management (EBM). First, to practice adaptive management, a key principle of EBM, managers must know whether and how their decisions are meeting their management objectives over time. Based on a cross-walk of MLMA goals with metrics and indicators from sustainable fishery certification programs, we present a flexible and practical tool for tracking fishery management performance in California. We showcase a draft series of decision trees and questionnaires managers can use to quantitatively or qualitatively measure both ecological and social outcomes, helping them to prioritize management options and limited resources. Second, state fisheries managers acknowledge the need for more effective stakeholder engagement to facilitate and inform decision-making and long-term outcomes, another key principle of EBM. Here, we present a pilot version of a decision-support tool to aid managers in choosing the most appropriate stakeholder engagement strategies in various types of decision contexts. This online tool will help staff identify their engagement goals, when they can strategically engage stakeholders based on their needs, and the fishery characteristics that will inform how engagement strategies are tailored to specific contexts. We also share opportunities to expand these EBM tools to other resource management contexts and scales.

Adaptive control of a manipulator with a flexible link

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Y. P.; Gibson, J. S.

1988-01-01

An adaptive controller for a manipulator with one rigid link and one flexible link is presented. The performance and robustness of the controller are demonstrated by numerical simulation results. In the simulations, the manipulator moves in a gravitational field and a finite element model represents the flexible link.

Loosening the Reins: How Flexibility Policies Contribute to Student Achievement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Education Commission of the States, Denver, CO.

Many states give individual schools the authority to make decisions in response to local conditions while still meeting state and district goals. Providing flexibility to local decision-makers is also a potential means for improving student achievement. This report provides a snapshot of several states' recent experiences with flexibility and…

Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kraucunas, Ian P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dirks, James A.

2015-04-01

The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization.more » Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.« less

Flexibility in Flood Management Design: Proactive Planning Under Climate Change Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2015-12-01

This paper presents an innovative, value-enhancing procedure for effective planning and design of long-lived flood management infrastructure given uncertain future flooding threats due to climate change. Designing infrastructure that can be adapted over time is a method to safeguard the efficacy of current design decisions given uncertainty about rates and future impacts of climate change. This paper explores the value of embedding "options" in a physical structure, where an option is the right but not the obligation to do something at a later date (e.g. over-dimensioning a floodwall foundation now facilitates a future height addition in response to observed increases in sea level; building of extra pump bays in a pumping station now enables the addition of pumping capacity whenever increased precipitation warrants an expansion.) The proposed procedure couples a simulation model that captures future climate induced changes to the hydrologic operating environment of a structure, with an economic model that estimates the lifetime economic performance of alternative investments. The economic model uses Real "In" Options analysis, a type of cash flow analysis that quantifies the implicit value of options and the flexibility they provide. This procedure is demonstrated using replacement planning for the multi-functional pumping station IJmuiden on the North Sea Canal in the Netherlands. Flexibility in design decisions is modelled, varying the size and specific options included in the new structure. Results indicate that the incorporation of options within the structural design has the potential to improve its economic performance, as compared to more traditional, "build it once and build it big" designs where flexibility is not an explicit design criterion. The added value resulting from the incorporation of flexibility varies with the range of future conditions considered, as well as the options examined. This procedure could be applied more broadly to explore investment strategies for the design of other flood management structures.

Workload-Matched Adaptive Automation Support of Air Traffic Controller Information Processing Stages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaber, David B.; Prinzel, Lawrence J., III; Wright, Melanie C.; Clamann, Michael P.

2002-01-01

Adaptive automation (AA) has been explored as a solution to the problems associated with human-automation interaction in supervisory control environments. However, research has focused on the performance effects of dynamic control allocations of early stage sensory and information acquisition functions. The present research compares the effects of AA to the entire range of information processing stages of human operators, such as air traffic controllers. The results provide evidence that the effectiveness of AA is dependent on the stage of task performance (human-machine system information processing) that is flexibly automated. The results suggest that humans are better able to adapt to AA when applied to lower-level sensory and psychomotor functions, such as information acquisition and action implementation, as compared to AA applied to cognitive (analysis and decision-making) tasks. The results also provide support for the use of AA, as compared to completely manual control. These results are discussed in terms of implications for AA design for aviation.

An adaptive learning control system for large flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thau, F. E.

1985-01-01

The objective of the research has been to study the design of adaptive/learning control systems for the control of large flexible structures. In the first activity an adaptive/learning control methodology for flexible space structures was investigated. The approach was based on using a modal model of the flexible structure dynamics and an output-error identification scheme to identify modal parameters. In the second activity, a least-squares identification scheme was proposed for estimating both modal parameters and modal-to-actuator and modal-to-sensor shape functions. The technique was applied to experimental data obtained from the NASA Langley beam experiment. In the third activity, a separable nonlinear least-squares approach was developed for estimating the number of excited modes, shape functions, modal parameters, and modal amplitude and velocity time functions for a flexible structure. In the final research activity, a dual-adaptive control strategy was developed for regulating the modal dynamics and identifying modal parameters of a flexible structure. A min-max approach was used for finding an input to provide modal parameter identification while not exceeding reasonable bounds on modal displacement.

L1 Adaptive Control Law for Flexible Space Launch Vehicle and Proposed Plan for Flight Test Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharisov, Evgeny; Gregory, Irene M.; Cao, Chengyu; Hovakimyan, Naira

2008-01-01

This paper explores application of the L1 adaptive control architecture to a generic flexible Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV). Adaptive control has the potential to improve performance and enhance safety of space vehicles that often operate in very unforgiving and occasionally highly uncertain environments. NASA s development of the next generation space launch vehicles presents an opportunity for adaptive control to contribute to improved performance of this statically unstable vehicle with low damping and low bending frequency flexible dynamics. In this paper, we consider the L1 adaptive output feedback controller to control the low frequency structural modes and propose steps to validate the adaptive controller performance utilizing one of the experimental test flights for the CLV Ares-I Program.

Adaptive Control Strategies for Flexible Robotic Arm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bialasiewicz, Jan T.

1996-01-01

The control problem of a flexible robotic arm has been investigated. The control strategies that have been developed have a wide application in approaching the general control problem of flexible space structures. The following control strategies have been developed and evaluated: neural self-tuning control algorithm, neural-network-based fuzzy logic control algorithm, and adaptive pole assignment algorithm. All of the above algorithms have been tested through computer simulation. In addition, the hardware implementation of a computer control system that controls the tip position of a flexible arm clamped on a rigid hub mounted directly on the vertical shaft of a dc motor, has been developed. An adaptive pole assignment algorithm has been applied to suppress vibrations of the described physical model of flexible robotic arm and has been successfully tested using this testbed.

Undercontribution bias in health care spending account decisions.

PubMed

Schweitzer, M E; Hershey, J C

1997-01-01

Results from this work describe 239 responses to a mailed survey regarding employee benefits decisions at a large eastern university. The primary objective of this work is to test for an undercontribution bias in health care financing decisions. The results establish the existence of an undercontribution bias in both actual employee decisions and hypothetical flexible spending account contribution decisions. We describe this bias within the context of related biases including loss aversion, mental accounting, status quo and omission biases. Surprisingly, we find a significant order effect in this study and posit that preference construction in this context is an active, reference-dependent process. In addition, results from this work demonstrate the endogenous nature of health care flexible spending account expenditures. The results have important implications both for the descriptive framework of and the normative solution to the flexible spending account contribution decision.

Assessment of the Relationship Between Flexibility and Adaptive Capacity in Flood Management Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiFrancesco, K.; Tullos, D. D.

2013-12-01

Discussions around adapting water management systems to future changes often state the need to increase system flexibility. Intuitively, a flexible, easily modifiable system seems desirable when faced with a wide range of uncertain, but plausible future conditions. Yet, despite the frequent use of the terms flexibility, very little work has examined what exactly it means to have a flexible water management system, what makes one system more flexible than another, or the extent to which flexibility increases adaptive capacity. This study applies a methodology for assessing the inherent flexibility of the structural and non-structural components of flood management systems using original flexibility metrics in the categories of: slack, intensity, connectivity, adjustability, and coordination. We use these metrics to assess the flexibility of three sub-systems within the Sacramento Valley flood management system in California, USA under current system conditions as well as with proposed management actions in place. We then assess the range of hydrologic conditions under which each sub-system can meet flood risk targets in order to determine whether more flexible systems are also more robust and able to perform over a wider range of hydrologic conditions. In doing so, we identify flexible characteristics of flood management systems that enhance the ability of the system to preform over a wide range of conditions making them better suited to adapt to an uncertain hydrologic future. We find that the flexibility characteristics that increase the range of conditions under which the system can meet performance goals varies depending on whether the region is considered urban, rural, or a small community. In some cases, a decrease in certain flexibility characteristics is associated with an increase in robustness, indicating that more flexibility is not always desirable. Future work will assess the transferability of these results to other regions and systems.

Use of multiattribute utility theory for formulary management in a health system.

PubMed

Chung, Seonyoung; Kim, Sooyon; Kim, Jeongmee; Sohn, Kieho

2010-01-15

The application, utility, and flexibility of the multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) when used as a formulary decision methodology in a Korean medical center were evaluated. A drug analysis model using MAUT consisting of 10 steps was designed for two drug classes of dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers (CCBs) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs). These two drug classes contain the most diverse agents among cardiovascular drugs on Samsung Medical Center's drug formulary. The attributes identified for inclusion in the drug analysis model were effectiveness, safety, patient convenience, and cost, with relative weights of 50%, 30%, 10%, and 10%, respectively. The factors were incorporated into the model to quantify the contribution of each attribute. For each factor, a utility scale of 0-100 was established, and the total utility score for each alternative was calculated. An attempt was made to make the model adaptable to changing health care and regulatory circumstances. The analysis revealed amlodipine besylate to be an alternative agent, with the highest total utility score among the dihydropyridine CCBs, while barnidipine hydrochloride had the lowest score. For ARBs, losartan potassium had the greatest total utility score, while olmesartan medoxomil had the lowest. A drug analysis model based on the MAUT was successfully developed and used in making formulary decisions for dihydropyridine CCBs and ARBs for a Korean health system. The model incorporates sufficient utility and flexibility of a drug's attributes and can be used as an alternative decision-making tool for formulary management in health systems.

Transfer of learning relates to intrinsic connectivity between hippocampus, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and large-scale networks.

PubMed

Gerraty, Raphael T; Davidow, Juliet Y; Wimmer, G Elliott; Kahn, Itamar; Shohamy, Daphna

2014-08-20

An important aspect of adaptive learning is the ability to flexibly use past experiences to guide new decisions. When facing a new decision, some people automatically leverage previously learned associations, while others do not. This variability in transfer of learning across individuals has been demonstrated repeatedly and has important implications for understanding adaptive behavior, yet the source of these individual differences remains poorly understood. In particular, it is unknown why such variability in transfer emerges even among homogeneous groups of young healthy participants who do not vary on other learning-related measures. Here we hypothesized that individual differences in the transfer of learning could be related to relatively stable differences in intrinsic brain connectivity, which could constrain how individuals learn. To test this, we obtained a behavioral measure of memory-based transfer outside of the scanner and on a separate day acquired resting-state functional MRI images in 42 participants. We then analyzed connectivity across independent component analysis-derived brain networks during rest, and tested whether intrinsic connectivity in learning-related networks was associated with transfer. We found that individual differences in transfer were related to intrinsic connectivity between the hippocampus and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and between these regions and large-scale functional brain networks. Together, the findings demonstrate a novel role for intrinsic brain dynamics in flexible learning-guided behavior, both within a set of functionally specific regions known to be important for learning, as well as between these regions and the default and frontoparietal networks, which are thought to serve more general cognitive functions. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3411297-07$15.00/0.

Walking Flexibility after Hemispherectomy: Split-Belt Treadmill Adaptation and Feedback Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choi, Julia T.; Vining, Eileen P. G.; Reisman, Darcy S.; Bastian, Amy J.

2009-01-01

Walking flexibility depends on use of feedback or reactive control to respond to unexpected changes in the environment, and the ability to adapt feedforward or predictive control for sustained alterations. Recent work has demonstrated that cerebellar damage impairs feedforward adaptation, but not feedback control, during human split-belt treadmill…

Pathology and failure in the design and implementation of adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Gunderson, Lance H.

2011-01-01

The conceptual underpinnings for adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex ecological systems as a result non-linear interactions among components and emergence, yet management decisions must still be made. The strength of adaptive management is in the recognition and confrontation of such uncertainty. Rather than ignore uncertainty, or use it to preclude management actions, adaptive management can foster resilience and flexibility to cope with an uncertain future, and develop safe to fail management approaches that acknowledge inevitable changes and surprises. Since its initial introduction, adaptive management has been hailed as a solution to endless trial and error approaches to complex natural resource management challenges. However, its implementation has failed more often than not. It does not produce easy answers, and it is appropriate in only a subset of natural resource management problems. Clearly adaptive management has great potential when applied appropriately. Just as clearly adaptive management has seemingly failed to live up to its high expectations. Why? We outline nine pathologies and challenges that can lead to failure in adaptive management programs. We focus on general sources of failures in adaptive management, so that others can avoid these pitfalls in the future. Adaptive management can be a powerful and beneficial tool when applied correctly to appropriate management problems; the challenge is to keep the concept of adaptive management from being hijacked for inappropriate use.

Adaptability and Flexibility of Literature Resource Materials (Instructional Resources).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spiegel, Dixie Lee

1990-01-01

Discusses the importance of the adaptability and flexibility of instructional resource materials. Highlights one quality resource for young readers, "Bookshelf, Stage 1," and another for intermediate level students, "Reading beyond the Basal Plus." (MG)

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: an ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution’s legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do no

Adaptation for Planting and Irrigation Decisions to Changing Monsoon Regime in Northeast India: Risk-based Hydro-economic Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Cai, X.

2013-12-01

Delay in onset of Indian summer monsoon becomes increasingly frequent. Delayed monsoon and occasional monsoon failures seriously affect agricultural production in the northeast as well as other parts of India. In the Vaishali district of the Bihar State, Monsoon rainfall is very skewed and erratic, often concentrating in shorter durations. Farmers in Vaishali reported that delayed Monsoon affected paddy planting and, consequently delayed cropping cycle, putting crops under the risks of 'terminal heat.' Canal system in the district does not function due to lack of maintenance; irrigation relies almost entirely on groundwater. Many small farmers choose not to irrigate when monsoon onset is delayed due to high diesel price, leading to reduced production or even crop failure. Some farmers adapt to delayed onset of Monsoon by planting short-duration rice, which gives the flexibility for planting the next season crops. Other sporadic autonomous adaptation activities were observed as well, with various levels of success. Adaptation recommendations and effective policy interventions are much needed. To explore robust options to adapt to the changing Monsoon regime, we build a stochastic programming model to optimize revenues of farmer groups categorized by landholding size, subject to stochastic Monsoon onset and rainfall amount. Imperfect probabilistic long-range forecast is used to inform the model onset and rainfall amount probabilities; the 'skill' of the forecasting is measured using probabilities of correctly predicting events in the past derived through hindcasting. Crop production functions are determined using self-calibrating Positive Mathematical Programming approach. The stochastic programming model aims to emulate decision-making behaviors of representative farmer agents through making choices in adaptation, including crop mix, planting dates, irrigation, and use of weather information. A set of technological and policy intervention scenarios are tested, including irrigation subsidies, drought and heat-tolerant crop varieties, and enhancing agricultural extension. A portfolio of prioritized adaption options are recommended for the study area.

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: An analysis of tools available in U.S. environmental law

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kundis Craig, Robin; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Allen, Craig R.; Arnold, Craig Anthony (Tony); Birge, Hannah E.; DeCaro, Daniel A.; Fremier, Alexander K.; Gosnell, Hannah; Schlager, Edella

2017-01-01

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution’s legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do not purport to comment on what the normative or substantive goals of law should be. Instead, we conclude that attention to process and procedure (including participation), as well as increased use of substantive standards (instead of rules), may allow an increased level of substantive flexibility to operate with legitimacy and fairness, providing the requisite levels of psychological, social, and economic stability needed for communities to adapt successfully to the Anthropocene.

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: an analysis of tools available in U.S. environmental law.

PubMed

Craig, Robin Kundis; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Allen, Craig R; Arnold, Craig Anthony Tony; Birgé, Hannah; DeCaro, Daniel A; Fremier, Alexander K; Gosnell, Hannah; Schlager, Edella

2017-06-30

Adaptive governance must work "on the ground," that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution's legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do not purport to comment on what the normative or substantive goals of law should be. Instead, we conclude that attention to process and procedure (including participation), as well as increased use of substantive standards (instead of rules), may allow an increased level of substantive flexibility to operate with legitimacy and fairness, providing the requisite levels of psychological, social, and economic stability needed for communities to adapt successfully to the Anthropocene.

[Financing problems of capital goods: part 1: leasing as a solution?].

PubMed

Clausen, C C; Bauer, M; Saleh, A; Picker, O

2008-06-01

The provision of financial support of hospitals by States for buying capital goods is becoming increasingly more limited. In order to still make investments, alternative forms of financing such as leasing must be considered in hospitals. However, the change from the classical form of dual financing and the decision to opt for a leasing model involves much more than just a question of costs. Leasing results in easily manageable expenditure, flexibility and adaptability for the choice of model but the leasing installments must be directly financed by the turnover from diagnosis-related groups and so lead to a reduction in the annual profit. In this article the authors try to give the reader an overview of the complex and sometimes counter-productive effect of financial instruments for investments in hospitals using leasing financing as an example. In the follow-up article the decision-making procedure using dynamic investment calculations will be demonstrated using a concrete example.

'Complexity-compatible' policy for integrated care? Lessons from the implementation of Ontario's Health Links.

PubMed

Grudniewicz, Agnes; Tenbensel, Tim; Evans, Jenna M; Steele Gray, Carolyn; Baker, G Ross; Wodchis, Walter P

2018-02-01

Complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory views healthcare as numerous sub-systems characterized by diverse agents that interact, self-organize, and continuously adapt. We apply this complexity science perspective to examine the extent to which CAS theory is a useful lens for designing and implementing health policies. We present the case of Health Links, a "low rules" policy intervention in Ontario, Canada aimed at stimulating the development of voluntary networks of health and social organizations to improve care coordination for the most frequent users of the healthcare system. Our sample consisted of stakeholders from regional governance bodies and organizations partnering in Health Links. Qualitative interview data were coded using the key complexity concepts of sensemaking, self-organization, interconnections, coevolution, and emergence. We found that the complexity-compatible policy design successfully stimulated local dynamics of flexibility, experimentation, and learning and that important mediating factors include leadership, readiness, relationship-building, role clarity, communication, and resources. However, we saw tensions between preferences for flexibility and standardization. Desirable developments occurred only in some settings and failed to flow upward to higher levels, resulting in a piecemeal and patchy landscape. Attention needs to be paid not only to local dynamics and processes, but also to regional and provincial levels to ensure that learning flows to the top and informs decision-making. We conclude that implementation of complexity-compatible policies needs a balance between flexibility and consistency and the right leadership to coordinate the two. Complexity-compatible policy for integrated healthcare is more than simply 'letting a thousand flowers bloom'. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Simulation of Bus Dispatching Policy for Timed Transfers on Signalized Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Hsun-Jung; Lin, Guey-Shii

2007-12-01

The major work of this study is to formulate the system cost functions and to integrate the bus dispatching policy with signal control. The integrated model mainly includes the flow dispersion model for links, signal control model for nodes, and dispatching control model for transfer terminals. All such models are inter-related for transfer operations in one-center transit network. The integrated model that combines dispatching policies with flexible signal control modes can be applied to assess the effectiveness of transfer operations. It is found that, if bus arrival information is reliable, an early dispatching decision made at the mean bus arrival times is preferable. The costs for coordinated operations with slack times are relatively low at the optimal common headway when applying adaptive route control. Based on such findings, a threshold function of bus headway for justifying an adaptive signal route control under various time values of auto drivers is developed.

Dynamic modelling and adaptive robust tracking control of a space robot with two-link flexible manipulators under unknown disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xinxin; Ge, Shuzhi Sam; He, Wei

2018-04-01

In this paper, both the closed-form dynamics and adaptive robust tracking control of a space robot with two-link flexible manipulators under unknown disturbances are developed. The dynamic model of the system is described with assumed modes approach and Lagrangian method. The flexible manipulators are represented as Euler-Bernoulli beams. Based on singular perturbation technique, the displacements/joint angles and flexible modes are modelled as slow and fast variables, respectively. A sliding mode control is designed for trajectories tracking of the slow subsystem under unknown but bounded disturbances, and an adaptive sliding mode control is derived for slow subsystem under unknown slowly time-varying disturbances. An optimal linear quadratic regulator method is proposed for the fast subsystem to damp out the vibrations of the flexible manipulators. Theoretical analysis validates the stability of the proposed composite controller. Numerical simulation results demonstrate the performance of the closed-loop flexible space robot system.

Does the PFC model of analogy account for decision making, problem solving, reasoning, flexibility, adaptability, and even creativity?

PubMed

Barutta, Joaquin; Guex, Raphael; Ibáñez, Agustín

2010-06-01

Abstract From everyday cognition to scientific discovery, analogical processes play an important role: bringing connection, integration, and interrelation of information. Recently, a PFC model of analogy has been proposed to explain many cognitive processes and integrate general functional properties of PFC. We argue here that analogical processes do not suffice to explain the cognitive processes and functions of PFC. Moreover the model does not satisfactorily integrate specific explanatory mechanisms required for the different processes involved. Its relevance would be improved if fewer cognitive phenomena were considered and more specific predictions and explanations about those processes were stated.

Testing of the coping flexibility hypothesis based on the dual-process theory: Relationships between coping flexibility and depressive Symptoms.

PubMed

Kato, Tsukasa

2015-12-15

According to the dual-process theory of coping flexibility (Kato, 2012), coping flexibility is the ability to discontinue an ineffective coping strategy (i.e., evaluation coping process) and implement an alternative strategy (i.e., adaptive coping process). The coping flexibility hypothesis (CFH) proposes that the ability to engage in flexible coping is related to better psychological functioning and physical health, including less depression. I the present study, participants were 393 American Whites, 429 Australian Whites, and 496 Chinese, selected from the data pool of the 2013 Coping and Health Survey (see Kato, 2014b). They completed both the Coping Flexibility Scale (Kato, 2012), which is based on the dual-process theory of coping flexibility, and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). For all nationalities and genders, evaluation coping and adaptive coping were significantly correlated with lower levels of depressive symptoms. Structural equation modeling revealed that evaluation coping was associated with lower depressive symptoms for all nationalities and genders, whereas no significant relationships between adaptive coping and depressive symptoms were found for any nationalities. Our results partially supported that the CFH fits with the dual-process theory of coping flexibility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modulation format identification aided hitless flexible coherent transceiver.

PubMed

Xiang, Meng; Zhuge, Qunbi; Qiu, Meng; Zhou, Xingyu; Zhang, Fangyuan; Tang, Ming; Liu, Deming; Fu, Songnian; Plant, David V

2016-07-11

We propose a hitless flexible coherent transceiver enabled by a novel modulation format identification (MFI) scheme for dynamic agile optical networks. The modulation format transparent digital signal processing (DSP) is realized by a block-wise decision-directed least-mean-square (DD-LMS) equalizer for channel tracking, and a pilot symbol aided superscalar phase locked loop (PLL) for carrier phase estimation (CPE). For the MFI, the modulation format information is encoded onto the pilot symbols initially used for CPE. Therefore, the proposed MFI method does not require extra overhead. Moreover, it can identify arbitrary modulation formats including multi-dimensional formats, and it enables tracking of the format change for short data blocks. The performance of the proposed hitless flexible coherent transceiver is successfully evaluated with five modulation formats including QPSK, 16QAM, 64QAM, Hybrid QPSK/8QAM and set-partitioning (SP)-512-QAM. We show that the proposed MFI method induces a negligible performance penalty. Moreover, we experimentally demonstrate that such a hitless transceiver can adapt to fast block-by-block modulation format switching. Finally, the performance improvement of the proposed MFI method is experimentally verified with respect to other commonly used MFI methods.

Implicit knowledge of visual uncertainty guides decisions with asymmetric outcomes.

PubMed

Whiteley, Louise; Sahani, Maneesh

2008-03-06

Perception is an "inverse problem," in which the state of the world must be inferred from the sensory neural activity that results. However, this inference is both ill-posed (Helmholtz, 1856; Marr, 1982) and corrupted by noise (Green & Swets, 1989), requiring the brain to compute perceptual beliefs under conditions of uncertainty. Here we show that human observers performing a simple visual choice task under an externally imposed loss function approach the optimal strategy, as defined by Bayesian probability and decision theory (Berger, 1985; Cox, 1961). In concert with earlier work, this suggests that observers possess a model of their internal uncertainty and can utilize this model in the neural computations that underlie their behavior (Knill & Pouget, 2004). In our experiment, optimal behavior requires that observers integrate the loss function with an estimate of their internal uncertainty rather than simply requiring that they use a modal estimate of the uncertain stimulus. Crucially, they approach optimal behavior even when denied the opportunity to learn adaptive decision strategies based on immediate feedback. Our data thus support the idea that flexible representations of uncertainty are pre-existing, widespread, and can be propagated to decision-making areas of the brain.

Application fields for the new Object Management Group (OMG) Standards Case Management Model and Notation (CMMN) and Decision Management Notation (DMN) in the perioperative field.

PubMed

Wiemuth, M; Junger, D; Leitritz, M A; Neumann, J; Neumuth, T; Burgert, O

2017-08-01

Medical processes can be modeled using different methods and notations. Currently used modeling systems like Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) are not capable of describing the highly flexible and variable medical processes in sufficient detail. We combined two modeling systems, Business Process Management (BPM) and Adaptive Case Management (ACM), to be able to model non-deterministic medical processes. We used the new Standards Case Management Model and Notation (CMMN) and Decision Management Notation (DMN). First, we explain how CMMN, DMN and BPMN could be used to model non-deterministic medical processes. We applied this methodology to model 79 cataract operations provided by University Hospital Leipzig, Germany, and four cataract operations provided by University Eye Hospital Tuebingen, Germany. Our model consists of 85 tasks and about 20 decisions in BPMN. We were able to expand the system with more complex situations that might appear during an intervention. An effective modeling of the cataract intervention is possible using the combination of BPM and ACM. The combination gives the possibility to depict complex processes with complex decisions. This combination allows a significant advantage for modeling perioperative processes.

Applying Reflective Middleware Techniques to Optimize a QoS-enabled CORBA Component Model Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Nanbor; Parameswaran, Kirthika; Kircher, Michael; Schmidt, Douglas

2003-01-01

Although existing CORBA specifications, such as Real-time CORBA and CORBA Messaging, address many end-to-end quality-of service (QoS) properties, they do not define strategies for configuring these properties into applications flexibly, transparently, and adaptively. Therefore, application developers must make these configuration decisions manually and explicitly, which is tedious, error-prone, and open sub-optimal. Although the recently adopted CORBA Component Model (CCM) does define a standard configuration framework for packaging and deploying software components, conventional CCM implementations focus on functionality rather than adaptive quality-of-service, which makes them unsuitable for next-generation applications with demanding QoS requirements. This paper presents three contributions to the study of middleware for QoS-enabled component-based applications. It outlines rejective middleware techniques designed to adaptively (1) select optimal communication mechanisms, (2) manage QoS properties of CORBA components in their contain- ers, and (3) (re)con$gure selected component executors dynamically. Based on our ongoing research on CORBA and the CCM, we believe the application of rejective techniques to component middleware will provide a dynamically adaptive and (re)configurable framework for COTS software that is well-suited for the QoS demands of next-generation applications.

Applying Reflective Middleware Techniques to Optimize a QoS-enabled CORBA Component Model Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Nanbor; Kircher, Michael; Schmidt, Douglas C.

2000-01-01

Although existing CORBA specifications, such as Real-time CORBA and CORBA Messaging, address many end-to-end quality-of-service (QoS) properties, they do not define strategies for configuring these properties into applications flexibly, transparently, and adaptively. Therefore, application developers must make these configuration decisions manually and explicitly, which is tedious, error-prone, and often sub-optimal. Although the recently adopted CORBA Component Model (CCM) does define a standard configuration frame-work for packaging and deploying software components, conventional CCM implementations focus on functionality rather than adaptive quality-of service, which makes them unsuitable for next-generation applications with demanding QoS requirements. This paper presents three contributions to the study of middleware for QoS-enabled component-based applications. It outlines reflective middleware techniques designed to adaptively: (1) select optimal communication mechanisms, (2) man- age QoS properties of CORBA components in their containers, and (3) (re)configure selected component executors dynamically. Based on our ongoing research on CORBA and the CCM, we believe the application of reflective techniques to component middleware will provide a dynamically adaptive and (re)configurable framework for COTS software that is well-suited for the QoS demands of next-generation applications.

Model reference, sliding mode adaptive control for flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yurkovich, S.; Ozguner, U.; Al-Abbass, F.

1988-01-01

A decentralized model reference adaptive approach using a variable-structure sliding model control has been developed for the vibration suppression of large flexible structures. Local models are derived based upon the desired damping and response time in a model-following scheme, and variable structure controllers are then designed which employ colocated angular rate and position feedback. Numerical simulations have been performed using NASA's flexible grid experimental apparatus.

Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning to Address Rapid Change: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caves, J. K.; Bodner, G.; Simms, K.; Fisher, L.; Robertson, T.

2012-12-01

There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision-making and adaptive management (CAM) have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We present the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA), a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: 1) shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; 2) mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision-making; 3) efforts to make information increasingly relevant and reliable; and 4) shared learning to improve both the process and management actions. The combination of stakeholder engagement and adaptive management has led to agreement on contentious issues, more innovative solutions, and more effective land management. Yet the region is now experiencing rapid changes outside managers' control—including climate change, human population growth, and reduced federal budgets—with large but unpredictable impacts on natural resources. While CAM experience provides a strong foundation for making the difficult and contentious management decisions that such changes are likely to require, neither collaboration nor adaptive management provides a sufficient structure for addressing uncontrollable and unpredictable change. As a result, LCNCA is exploring two specific modifications to CAM that may better address emerging challenges, including: 1) Creating nested resource objectives to distinguish between those objectives which may be crucial from those which may hinder a flexible response to climate change, and 2) Incorporating scenario planning into CAM to explore how climate change may interact with other drivers and alter options for the future, to identify robust management, and to prioritize ecological monitoring efforts. The experiences at LCNCA demonstrate how collaboration and adaptive management can be used to improve social and environmental outcomes and, with a few modifications, may help address the complexity and change that threatens to overwhelm even the best efforts to sustain public lands.

An FPGA- Based General-Purpose Data Acquisition Controller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robson, C. C. W.; Bousselham, A.; Bohm

2006-08-01

System development in advanced FPGAs allows considerable flexibility, both during development and in production use. A mixed firmware/software solution allows the developer to choose what shall be done in firmware or software, and to make that decision late in the process. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of increased complexity. We have designed a modular development framework to help to overcome these issues of increased complexity. This framework comprises a generic controller that can be adapted for different systems by simply changing the software or firmware parts. The controller can use both soft and hard processors, with or without an RTOS, based on the demands of the system to be developed. The resulting system uses the Internet for both control and data acquisition. In our studies we developed the embedded system in a Xilinx Virtex-II Pro FPGA, where we used both PowerPC and MicroBlaze cores, http, Java, and LabView for control and communication, together with the MicroC/OS-II and OSE operating systems

A novel personal health system with integrated decision support and guidance for the management of chronic liver disease.

PubMed

Kiefer, Stephan; Schäfer, Michael; Bransch, Marco; Brimmers, Peter; Bartolomé, Diego; Baños, Janie; Orr, James; Jones, Dave; Jara, Maximilian; Stockmann, Martin

2014-01-01

A personal health system platform for the management of patients with chronic liver disease that incorporates a novel approach to integrate decision support and guidance through care pathways for patients and their doctors is presented in this paper. The personal health system incorporates an integrated decision support engine that guides patients and doctors through the management of the disease by issuing tasks and providing recommendations to both the care team and the patient and by controlling the execution of a Care Flow Plan based on the results of tasks and the monitored health status of the patient. This Care Flow Plan represents a formal, business process based model of disease management designed off-line by domain experts on the basis of clinical guidelines, knowledge of care pathways and an organisational model for integrated, patient-centred care. In this way, remote monitoring and treatment are dynamically adapted to the patient's actual condition and clinical symptoms and allow flexible delivery of care with close integration of specialists, therapists and care-givers.

Individual behavioral and neurochemical markers of unadapted decision-making processes in healthy inbred mice.

PubMed

Pittaras, Elsa; Callebert, Jacques; Chennaoui, Mounir; Rabat, Arnaud; Granon, Sylvie

2016-12-01

One of the hallmarks of decision-making processes is the inter-individual variability between healthy subjects. These behavioral patterns could constitute risk factors for the development of psychiatric disorders. Therefore, finding predictive markers of safe or risky decision-making is an important challenge for psychiatry research. We set up a mouse gambling task (MGT)-adapted from the human Iowa gambling task with uncertain contingencies between response and outcome that furthermore enables the emergence of inter-individual differences. Mice (n = 54) were further individually characterized for locomotive, emotional and cognitive behavior. Individual basal rates of monoamines and brain activation after the MGT were assessed in brain regions related to reward, emotion or cognition. In a large healthy mice population, 44 % showed a balanced strategy with limited risk-taking and flexible choices, 29 % showed a safe but rigid strategy, while 27 % adopted risky behavior. Risky mice took also more risks in other apparatus behavioral devices and were less sensitive to reward. No difference existed between groups regarding anxiety, working memory, locomotion and impulsivity. Safe/rigid mice exhibited a hypoactivation of prefrontal subareas, a high level of serotonin in the orbitofrontal cortex combined with a low level of dopamine in the putamen that predicted the emergence of rigid behavior. By contrast, high levels of dopamine, serotonin and noradrenalin in the hippocampus predicted the emergence of more exploratory and risky behaviors. The coping of C57bl/6J mice in MGT enables the determination of extreme patterns of choices either safe/rigid or risky/flexible, related to specific neurochemical and behavioral markers.

Anterior Cingulate Cortex Instigates Adaptive Switches in Choice by Integrating Immediate and Delayed Components of Value in Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex

PubMed Central

Guitart-Masip, Marc; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Dolan, Raymond J.

2014-01-01

Actions can lead to an immediate reward or punishment and a complex set of delayed outcomes. Adaptive choice necessitates the brain track and integrate both of these potential consequences. Here, we designed a sequential task whereby the decision to exploit or forego an available offer was contingent on comparing immediate value and a state-dependent future cost of expending a limited resource. Crucially, the dynamics of the task demanded frequent switches in policy based on an online computation of changing delayed consequences. We found that human subjects choose on the basis of a near-optimal integration of immediate reward and delayed consequences, with the latter computed in a prefrontal network. Within this network, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) was dynamically coupled to ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) when adaptive switches in choice were required. Our results suggest a choice architecture whereby interactions between ACC and vmPFC underpin an integration of immediate and delayed components of value to support flexible policy switching that accommodates the potential delayed consequences of an action. PMID:24573291

People at the centre of complex adaptive health systems reform.

PubMed

Sturmberg, Joachim P; O'Halloran, Diana M; Martin, Carmel M

2010-10-18

Health systems are increasingly recognised to be complex adaptive systems (CASs), functionally characterised by their continuing and dynamic adaptation in response to core system drivers, or attractors. The core driver for our health system (and for the health reform strategies intended to achieve it) should clearly be the improvement of people's health - the personal experience of health, regardless of organic abnormalities; we contend that a patient-centred health system requires flexible localised decision making and resource use. The prevailing trend is to use disease protocols, financial management strategies and centralised control of siloed programs to manage our health system. This strategy is suggested to be fatally flawed, as: people's health and health experience as core system drivers are inevitably pre-empted by centralised and standardised strategies; the context specificity of personal experience and the capacity of local systems are overlooked; and in line with CAS patterns and characteristics, these strategies will lead to "unintended" consequences on all parts of the system. In Australia, there is still the time and opportunity for health system redesign that truly places people and their health at the core of the system.

Anterior cingulate cortex instigates adaptive switches in choice by integrating immediate and delayed components of value in ventromedial prefrontal cortex.

PubMed

Economides, Marcos; Guitart-Masip, Marc; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Dolan, Raymond J

2014-02-26

Actions can lead to an immediate reward or punishment and a complex set of delayed outcomes. Adaptive choice necessitates the brain track and integrate both of these potential consequences. Here, we designed a sequential task whereby the decision to exploit or forego an available offer was contingent on comparing immediate value and a state-dependent future cost of expending a limited resource. Crucially, the dynamics of the task demanded frequent switches in policy based on an online computation of changing delayed consequences. We found that human subjects choose on the basis of a near-optimal integration of immediate reward and delayed consequences, with the latter computed in a prefrontal network. Within this network, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) was dynamically coupled to ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) when adaptive switches in choice were required. Our results suggest a choice architecture whereby interactions between ACC and vmPFC underpin an integration of immediate and delayed components of value to support flexible policy switching that accommodates the potential delayed consequences of an action.

Developmental constraints on behavioural flexibility.

PubMed

Holekamp, Kay E; Swanson, Eli M; Van Meter, Page E

2013-05-19

We suggest that variation in mammalian behavioural flexibility not accounted for by current socioecological models may be explained in part by developmental constraints. From our own work, we provide examples of constraints affecting variation in behavioural flexibility, not only among individuals, but also among species and higher taxonomic units. We first implicate organizational maternal effects of androgens in shaping individual differences in aggressive behaviour emitted by female spotted hyaenas throughout the lifespan. We then compare carnivores and primates with respect to their locomotor and craniofacial adaptations. We inquire whether antagonistic selection pressures on the skull might impose differential functional constraints on evolvability of skulls and brains in these two orders, thus ultimately affecting behavioural flexibility in each group. We suggest that, even when carnivores and primates would theoretically benefit from the same adaptations with respect to behavioural flexibility, carnivores may nevertheless exhibit less behavioural flexibility than primates because of constraints imposed by past adaptations in the morphology of the limbs and skull. Phylogenetic analysis consistent with this idea suggests greater evolutionary lability in relative brain size within families of primates than carnivores. Thus, consideration of developmental constraints may help elucidate variation in mammalian behavioural flexibility.

Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2017-07-01

We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

Comparative-effectiveness research to aid population decision making by relating clinical outcomes and quality-adjusted life years.

PubMed

Campbell, Jonathan D; Zerzan, Judy; Garrison, Louis P; Libby, Anne M

2013-04-01

Comparative-effectiveness research (CER) at the population level is missing standardized approaches to quantify and weigh interventions in terms of their clinical risks, benefits, and uncertainty. We proposed an adapted CER framework for population decision making, provided example displays of the outputs, and discussed the implications for population decision makers. Building on decision-analytical modeling but excluding cost, we proposed a 2-step approach to CER that explicitly compared interventions in terms of clinical risks and benefits and linked this evidence to the quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The first step was a traditional intervention-specific evidence synthesis of risks and benefits. The second step was a decision-analytical model to simulate intervention-specific progression of disease over an appropriate time. The output was the ability to compare and quantitatively link clinical outcomes with QALYs. The outputs from these CER models include clinical risks, benefits, and QALYs over flexible and relevant time horizons. This approach yields an explicit, structured, and consistent quantitative framework to weigh all relevant clinical measures. Population decision makers can use this modeling framework and QALYs to aid in their judgment of the individual and collective risks and benefits of the alternatives over time. Future research should study effective communication of these domains for stakeholders. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Toward an Expanded Definition of Adaptive Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Susan D.

1997-01-01

Uses the lifespan, life-space model to examine the definition of adaptive decision making. Reviews the existing definition of adaptive decision making as "rational" decision making and offers alternate perspectives on decision making with an emphasis on the implications of using the model. Makes suggestions for future theory, research,…

Age Differences in Adaptive Decision Making: The Role of Numeracy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Yiwei; Wang, Jiaxi; Kirk, Robert M.; Pethtel, Olivia L.; Kiefner, Allison E.

2014-01-01

The primary purposes of the present study were to examine age differences in adaptive decision making and to evaluate the role of numeracy in mediating the relationship between age and adaptive decision making. Adaptive decision making was assessed by the Cups task (Levin, Weller, Pederson, & Harshman, 2007). Forty-six younger (18 to 24 years…

The Impact of Coping Flexibility on the Risk of Depressive Symptoms

PubMed Central

Kato, Tsukasa

2015-01-01

Objective According to the dual-process theory, coping flexibility is defined as the ability to produce and implement a new coping strategy in place of an ineffective coping strategy. Specifically, coping flexibility includes two processes: evaluation coping and adaptive coping. Evaluation coping refers to sensitivity to feedback about the efficacy of a coping strategy, and adaptive coping involves the willingness to implement alternative coping strategies. The coping flexibility hypothesis (CFH) postulates that more flexible coping will be associated with more adaptive outcomes; importantly, there are numerous theories and studies that support the CFH. The main purpose of this study was to test the CFH based on dual-process theory. Methods A total of 1,770 Japanese college students participated and, completed a set of questionnaires that measured coping flexibility (evaluation coping and adaptive coping) and depressive symptoms. Depressive symptoms were measured via the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Results The proportions of women and men who reported depressive symptoms were 58.69% (95% CIs [55.74, 61.66]) and 54.17% (95% CIs [50.37, 57.95]), respectively when a cut-off score of 16 on the CES-D was used. A multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that evaluation coping (OR = 0.86, 95% CIs [0.83, 0.0.89]) and adaptive coping (OR = 0.91, 95% CIs [0.88, 0.93]) were significantly associated with lower levels of depressive symptoms. Conclusion The results of the present study indicated that the CFH based on dual-process theory was supported in a Japanese sample. PMID:26011626

The Role of Federal Government for Climate Adaptation in the Urban Context: Results of a workshop (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizer, J.; Chhetri, N.; Roy, M.

2010-12-01

Extreme weather events in urban areas such as torrential rainfall in Chicago and London, floods in Boston and Elbe and heat waves in Europe have shed stark light on cities’ vulnerability to the effects of climate change. At the same time, cities themselves are significant net contributors to GHG’s attributable to climatic changes through the built environment (e.g. housing, roads, and parking lots), transport, consumption and recreation. In the arid region of southwestern United States, issues associated with the adequacy of water resources, urban heat island, and air quality best exemplify these contributions. This duality - cities as impacted by, and contributors to extreme climatic patterns induced by climate change, and the specific climate information needed for decision-making by city planners - provided the impetus for a two-day workshop in January 2009. Organized by Arizona State University, the workshop included city managers, planners, private sector stakeholders, water managers, researchers, and Federal program managers. The aim was to identify information needs, and data and research gaps, as well as to design strategies to address climate uncertainty. Two key approaches discussed were: a) building multiple, flexible scenarios and modeling efforts that enable decision-makers to plan for a number of possible futures, and b) matching Federal climate assets to local, regional and sectoral needs through continuous collaboration that supports decision-making within the social, economic, and political context of the place. Federal leadership in facilitating, coordinating and informing efforts that nurture the creative intellectual capacity of cities to produce integrated solutions to mitigate the effects of and adapt to climate change will go a long way in addressing urban climate adaptation in the United States. Participants outlined a number of concerns and suggestions for Federal government leaders and services associated with a national climate network. Concerns included a broad range of issues, including flood protection, sea level rise, extreme events, infrastructure investment decisions, water supply, storm-water and wastewater management, public education and outreach. Suggestions included an in-depth exploration of new roles for federal agencies, as well as new partnerships with state and local entities, the private sector, and non-governmental entities; developing specialized communicators and trusted information brokers who can connect federal science agencies to local decision makers; and integrating federal decision making with local implementation.

Rapid humanitarian assessments and rationality: a value-of-information study from Iraq, 2003-04.

PubMed

Benini, Aldo; Conley, Charles

2007-03-01

Rapid assessments are one of the standard informational tools in humanitarian response and are supposed to contribute to rational decision-making.(1) The extent to which the assessment organisation itself behaves rationally, however, is an open question. This can be evaluated against multiple criteria, such as the cost and value of the information it collects and its ability to adapt flexibly design or samples when the survey environment changes unforeseeably. An unusual data constellation from two concurrent recent (2003-04) rapid assessments in northern Iraq permits us to model part of the actual assessment behaviour in terms of geographical, community and prior substantive information attributes. The model correctly predicts the decisions, in 79 per cent of the 2,425 local communities in focus, that data collector teams in the Emergency Mine Action Survey made to visit or not to visit. The analysis demonstrates variably rational behaviour under conditions of insecurity, repeated regrouping and incomplete sampling frames. A pronounced bias towards very small rural settlements is irrational for the overall results, but may be a rational strategy of individual survey workers seeking to prolong their employment. Implications for future assessments are sketched in the areas of tools for urban surveys, greater adaptability, including early feedback from users, and sensibility to value-of-information concepts.

Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2012-12-01

As has been long noted, a comprehensive, coordinated observing system is the backbone of any Earth information system. Demands are increasingly placed on earth observation and prediction systems and attendant services to address the needs of economically and environmentally vulnerable sectors and investments, including energy, water, human health, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, and national security. Climate services include building capacity to interpret information and recognize standards and limitations of data in the promotion of social and economic development in a changing climate. This includes improving the understanding of climate in the context of a variety of temporal and spatial scales (including the influence of decadal scale forcings and land surface feedbacks on seasonal forecast reliability). Climate data and information are central for developing decision options that are sensitive to climate-related uncertainties and the design of flexible adaptation pathways. Ideally monitoring should be action oriented to support climate risk assessment and adaptation including informing robust decision making to multiple risks over the long term. Based on the experience of global observations programs and empirical research we outline- Challenges in developing effective monitoring and climate information systems to support adaptation. The types of observations of critical importance needed for sector planning to enhance food, water and energy security, and to improve early warning for disaster risk reduction Observations needed for ecosystem-based adaptation including the identification of thresholds, maintenance of biological diversity and land degradation The benefits and limits of linking regional model output to local observations including analogs and verification for adaptation planning To support these goals a robust systems of integrated observations are needed to characterize the uncertainty surrounding emergent risks including overcoming unrealistically precise information demands. While monitoring systems design and operation should be guided by the standards and requirements of management, those who provide information to the system (e.g. hydromet services) should also derive benefits. Drawing on identified information needs to support climate risk management (in drought, water resources and other areas) we outline principles of effective monitoring and develop preliminary strategic guidance for information systems being developed through the GEO, GCOS and Global and national frameworks for climate services. The efficacy of such services are improved by a problem-solving orientation, participatory planning, extension management and improvements in the use and value of existing data to legitimize new investments.

The CBT Decade: Teaching for Flexibility and Adaptability. An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Billett, Stephen; McKavanagh, Charlie; Beven, Fred; Angus, Lawrence; Seddon, Terri; Gough, John; Hayes, Sharon; Robertson, Ian

The contribution of competency-based training (CBT) to the development of an adaptable and flexible workforce was examined by analyzing documents and gathering data from teachers, industry representatives, enterprises, and students in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan sites in two Australian states: Victoria and Queensland. The study focused on…

Decision Making and Cognitive Behavioral Flexibility in a OCD Sample: a Study in a Virtual Environment.

PubMed

la Paglia, Filippo; la Cascia, Caterina; Rizzo, Rosalinda; Riva, Giuseppe; la Barbera, Daniele

2015-01-01

Neuropsychological disorders are common in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) patients. Executive functions, verbal fluency and verbal memory, shifting attention from one aspect of stimuli to others, mental flexibility, engaging in executive planning and decision making, are the most involved cognitive domains. We focus on two aspects of neuropsychological function: decision making and cognitive behavioral flexibility, assessed through a virtual version of the Multiple Errand Test (V-MET), developed using the NeuroVR software. Thirty OCD patients were compared with thirty matched control subjects. The results showed the presence of difficulties in OCD patients with tasks where the goal is not clear, the information is incomplete or the parameters are ill-defined.

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of new end uses in recycled water schemes.

PubMed

Chen, Zhuo; Ngo, Huu Hao; Guo, Wenshan; Lim, Richard; Wang, Xiaochang C; O'Halloran, Kelly; Listowski, Andrzej; Corby, Nigel; Miechel, Clayton

2014-02-01

Nowadays, recycled water has provided sufficient flexibility to satisfy short-term freshwater needs and increase the reliability of long-term water supplies in many water scarce areas, which becomes an essential component of integrated water resources management. However, the current applications of recycled water are still quite limited that are mainly associated with non-potable purposes such as irrigation, industrial uses, toilet flushing and car washing. There is a large potential to exploit and develop new end uses of recycled water in both urban and rural areas. This can greatly contribute to freshwater savings, wastewater reduction and water sustainability. Consequently, the paper identified the potentials for the development of three recycled water new end uses, household laundry, livestock feeding and servicing, and swimming pool, in future water use market. To validate the strengths of these new applications, a conceptual decision analytic framework was proposed. This can be able to facilitate the optional management strategy selection process and thereafter provide guidance on the future end use studies within a larger context of the community, processes, and models in decision-making. Moreover, as complex evaluation criteria were selected and taken into account to narrow down the multiple management alternatives, the methodology can successfully add transparency, objectivity and comprehensiveness to the assessment. Meanwhile, the proposed approach could also allow flexibility to adapt to particular circumstances of each case under study. © 2013.

Analysis of how people with intellectual disabilities organize information using computerized guidance.

PubMed

Lussier-Desrochers, Dany; Sauzéon, Hélène; Consel, Charles; Roux, Jeannie; Balland, Émilie; Godin-Tremblay, Valérie; N'Kaoua, Bernard; Lachapelle, Yves

2017-04-01

Access to residential settings for people with intellectual disabilities (ID) contributes to their social participation, but presents particular challenges. Assistive technologies can help people perform activities of daily living. However, the majority of the computerized solutions offered use guidance modes with a fixed, unchanging sequencing that leaves little room for self-determination to emerge. The objective of the project was to develop a flexible guidance mode and to test it with participants, to describe their information organization methods. This research used a descriptive exploratory design and conducted a comparison between five participants with ID and five participants with no ID. The results showed a difference in the information organization methods for both categories of participants. The people with ID used more diversified organization methods (categorical, schematic, action-directed) than the neurotypical participants (visual, action-directed). These organization methods varied depending on the people, but also on the characteristics of the requested task. Furthermore, several people with ID presented difficulties when switching from virtual to real mode. These results demonstrate the importance of developing flexible guidance modes adapted to the users' cognitive strategies, to maximize their benefits. Studies using experimental designs will have to be conducted to determine the impacts of more-flexible guidance modes Implications for rehabilitation Intervention approaches favouring, self-determination, decision making, action analysis and results anticipation must be promoted with people with intellectual disabilities. Fixed and rigid technological guidance mode, like those currently favoured in interventions, is appropriate for only some people's profiles or may depend on the nature of the task. It seems that people with ID use a wide spectrum of organization strategies and that adapting guidance modes to all these strategies is relevant.

A Delphi survey of traits of effective physiatric leaders.

PubMed

Braddom, C L; Braddom, R L

1986-11-01

A Delphi study of 14 physiatric leaders, 10 men and 4 women, ages 30 to 65, to determine their most important leadership characteristics, asked them to list the characteristics they considered most important for effective leadership. Responses were collated and any trait mentioned by at least three was put into a second survey, in which they were asked to rank the traits. A third survey gave them the results of the second, and asked for a final ranking. Fourteen traits made the final survey, in which the ten most important (in descending order of importance) were Organizational Skill, Commitment, Vision/Purpose, Communication Ability, Ability to Delegate, Sense of Ethics, Decisiveness, Knowledgeable, Flexibility/Adaptability and Analytical/Problem Solving Skill.

Valuing Flexibility in Career Training Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yahanpath, Noel; Neal, Mark; McCormack, Shane

2013-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the nature and significance of flexibility in decisions about education and training options. This is done through an examination of the relevance of real options valuation (ROV) to our understanding of educational and training choices. Through this examination, the paper aims to contribute to the…

What makes health impact assessments successful? Factors contributing to effectiveness in Australia and New Zealand.

PubMed

Haigh, Fiona; Harris, Elizabeth; Harris-Roxas, Ben; Baum, Fran; Dannenberg, Andrew L; Harris, Mark F; Keleher, Helen; Kemp, Lynn; Morgan, Richard; Ng Chok, Harrison; Spickett, Jeff

2015-10-03

While many guidelines explain how to conduct Health Impact Assessments (HIAs), less is known about the factors that determine the extent to which HIAs affect health considerations in the decision making process. We investigated which factors are associated with increased or reduced effectiveness of HIAs in changing decisions and in the implementation of policies, programs or projects. This study builds on and tests the Harris and Harris-Roxas' conceptual framework for evaluating HIA effectiveness, which emphasises context, process and output as key domains. We reviewed 55 HIA reports in Australia and New Zealand from 2005 to 2009 and conducted surveys and interviews for 48 of these HIAs. Eleven detailed case studies were undertaken using document review and stakeholder interviews. Case study participants were selected through purposeful and snowball sampling. The data were analysed by thematic content analysis. Findings were synthesised and mapped against the conceptual framework. A stakeholder forum was utilised to test face validity and practical adequacy of the findings. We found that some features of HIA are essential, such as the stepwise but flexible process, and evidence based approach. Non-essential features that can enhance the impact of HIAs include capacity and experience; 'right person right level'; involvement of decision-makers and communities; and relationships and partnerships. There are contextual factors outside of HIA such as fit with planning and decision making context, broader global context and unanticipated events, and shared values and goals that may influence a HIA. Crosscutting factors include proactive positioning, and time and timeliness. These all operate within complex open systems, involving multiple decision-makers, levels of decision-making, and points of influence. The Harris and Harris-Roxas framework was generally supported. We have confirmed previously identified factors influencing effectiveness of HIA and identified new factors such as proactive positioning. Our findings challenge some presumptions about 'right' timing for HIA and the rationality and linearity of decision-making processes. The influence of right timing on decision making needs to be seen within the context of other factors such as proactive positioning. This research can help HIA practitioners and researchers understand and identify what can be enhanced within the HIA process. Practitioners can adapt the flexible HIA process to accommodate the external contextual factors identified in this report.

Exploration of Potential Future Fleet Architectures

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-07-01

alternative architectures are those espoused by the OFT sponsoring office: flexibility, adaptability, agility, speed, and information dominance through...including naval forces, which we used. The OFT advocates flexibility, adaptability, agility, speed, and information dominance through networking...challenges and transnational threats. In future conflicts, the Navy has plans to expand strike power, realize information dominance , and transform methods

Device and method for redirecting electromagnetic signals

DOEpatents

Garcia, Ernest J.

1999-01-01

A device fabricated to redirect electromagnetic signals, the device including a primary driver adapted to provide a predetermined force, a linkage system coupled to the primary driver, a pusher rod rotationally coupled to the linkage system, a flexible rod element attached to the pusher rod and adapted to buckle upon the application of the predetermined force, and a mirror structure attached to the flexible rod element at one end and to the substrate at another end. When the predetermined force buckles the flexible rod element, the mirror structure and the flexible rod element both move to thereby allow a remotely-located electromagnetic signal directed towards the device to be redirected.

Examining Challenges Related to the Production of Actionable Climate Knowledge for Adaptation Decision-Making: A Focus on Climate Knowledge System Producers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ernst, K.; Preston, B. L.; Tenggren, S.; Klein, R.; Gerger-Swartling, Å.

2017-12-01

Many challenges to adaptation decision-making and action have been identified across peer-reviewed and gray literature. These challenges have primarily focused on the use of climate knowledge for adaptation decision-making, the process of adaptation decision-making, and the needs of the decision-maker. Studies on climate change knowledge systems often discuss the imperative role of climate knowledge producers in adaptation decision-making processes and stress the need for producers to engage in knowledge co-production activities and to more effectively meet decision-maker needs. While the influence of climate knowledge producers on the co-production of science for adaptation decision-making is well-recognized, hardly any research has taken a direct approach to analyzing the challenges that climate knowledge producers face when undertaking science co-production. Those challenges can influence the process of knowledge production and may hinder the creation, utilization, and dissemination of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making. This study involves semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and participant observations to analyze, identify, and contextualize the challenges that climate knowledge producers in Sweden face as they endeavor to create effective climate knowledge systems for multiple contexts, scales, and levels across the European Union. Preliminary findings identify complex challenges related to education, training, and support; motivation, willingness, and culture; varying levels of prioritization; professional roles and responsibilities; the type and amount of resources available; and professional incentive structures. These challenges exist at varying scales and levels across individuals, organizations, networks, institutions, and disciplines. This study suggests that the creation of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making is not supported across scales and levels in the climate knowledge production landscape. Additionally, enabling the production of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making requires multi-level effort beyond the individual level.

The advantage of flexible neuronal tunings in neural network models for motor learning

PubMed Central

Marongelli, Ellisha N.; Thoroughman, Kurt A.

2013-01-01

Human motor adaptation to novel environments is often modeled by a basis function network that transforms desired movement properties into estimated forces. This network employs a layer of nodes that have fixed broad tunings that generalize across the input domain. Learning is achieved by updating the weights of these nodes in response to training experience. This conventional model is unable to account for rapid flexibility observed in human spatial generalization during motor adaptation. However, added plasticity in the widths of the basis function tunings can achieve this flexibility, and several neurophysiological experiments have revealed flexibility in tunings of sensorimotor neurons. We found a model, Locally Weighted Projection Regression (LWPR), which uniquely possesses the structure of a basis function network in which both the weights and tuning widths of the nodes are updated incrementally during adaptation. We presented this LWPR model with training functions of different spatial complexities and monitored incremental updates to receptive field widths. An inverse pattern of dependence of receptive field adaptation on experienced error became evident, underlying both a relationship between generalization and complexity, and a unique behavior in which generalization always narrows after a sudden switch in environmental complexity. These results implicate a model that is flexible in both basis function widths and weights, like LWPR, as a viable alternative model for human motor adaptation that can account for previously observed plasticity in spatial generalization. This theory can be tested by using the behaviors observed in our experiments as novel hypotheses in human studies. PMID:23888141

Integrated Flight/Structural Mode Control for Very Flexible Aircraft Using L1 Adaptive Output Feedback Controller

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Che, Jiaxing; Cao, Chengyu; Gregory, Irene M.

2012-01-01

This paper explores application of adaptive control architecture to a light, high-aspect ratio, flexible aircraft configuration that exhibits strong rigid body/flexible mode coupling. Specifically, an L(sub 1) adaptive output feedback controller is developed for a semi-span wind tunnel model capable of motion. The wind tunnel mount allows the semi-span model to translate vertically and pitch at the wing root, resulting in better simulation of an aircraft s rigid body motion. The control objective is to design a pitch control with altitude hold while suppressing body freedom flutter. The controller is an output feedback nominal controller (LQG) augmented by an L(sub 1) adaptive loop. A modification to the L(sub 1) output feedback is proposed to make it more suitable for flexible structures. The new control law relaxes the required bounds on the unmatched uncertainty and allows dependence on the state as well as time, i.e. a more general unmatched nonlinearity. The paper presents controller development and simulated performance responses. Simulation is conducted by using full state flexible wing models derived from test data at 10 different dynamic pressure conditions. An L(sub 1) adaptive output feedback controller is designed for a single test point and is then applied to all the test cases. The simulation results show that the L(sub 1) augmented controller can stabilize and meet the performance requirements for all 10 test conditions ranging from 30 psf to 130 psf dynamic pressure.

Recognizing resilience: Learning from the effects of stress on the brain

PubMed Central

McEwen, Bruce S.; Gray, Jason D.; Nasca, Carla

2014-01-01

As the central organ of stress and adaptation to stressors, the brain plays a pivotal role in behavioral and physiological responses that may lead to successful adaptation or to pathophysiology and mental and physical disease. In this context, resilience can be defined as “achieving a positive outcome in the face of adversity”. Underlying this deceptively simple statement are several questions; first, to what extent is this ability limited to those environments that have shaped the individual or can it be more flexible; second, when in the life course does the brain develop capacity for flexibility for adapting positively to new challenges; and third, can such flexibility be instated in individuals where early life experiences have limited that capacity? Brain architecture continues to show plasticity throughout adult life and studies of gene expression and epigenetic regulation reveal a dynamic and ever-changing brain. The goal is to recognize those biological changes that underlie flexible adaptability, and to recognize gene pathways, epigenetic factors and structural changes that indicate lack of resilience leading to negative outcomes, particularly when the individual is challenged by new circumstances. Early life experiences determine individual differences in such capabilities via epigenetic pathways and laying down of brain architecture that determine the later capacity for flexible adaptation or the lack thereof. Reactivation of such plasticity in individuals lacking such resilience is a new challenge for research and practical application. Finally, sex differences in the plasticity of the brain are often overlooked and must be more fully investigated. PMID:25506601

Timing Is Everything: Adapting to the Flexible Schedule.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Browne, Karen Stevens; Burton, Linda

1989-01-01

Discusses the benefits of flexible scheduling in school media centers and emphasizes the importance of cooperation among media specialists, teachers, administrators, and volunteers in successfully implementing flexible scheduling. The experiences of a school media specialist who introduced flexible scheduling in the media center at Whiskey Bottom…

Nicotinic alteration of decision-making.

PubMed

Naudé, Jérémie; Dongelmans, Malou; Faure, Philippe

2015-09-01

Addiction to nicotine is characterized by impulses, urges and lack of self-control towards cigarettes. A key element in the process of addiction is the development of habits oriented towards nicotine consumption that surpass flexible systems as a consequence of a gradual adaptation to chronic drug exposure. However, the long-term effects of nicotine on brain circuits also induce wide changes in decision-making processes, affecting behaviors unrelated to cigarettes. This review aims at providing an update on the implications of nicotine on general decision-making processes, with an emphasis on impulsivity and risk-taking. As impulsivity is a rather ambiguous behavioral trait, we build on economic and normative theories to better characterize these nicotine-induced alterations in decision-making. Nonetheless, experimental data are sparse and often contradictory. We will discuss how the latest findings on the neurobiological basis of choice behavior may help disentangling these issues. We focus on the role of nicotine acetylcholine receptors and their different subunits, and on the spatio-temporal dynamics (i.e. diversity of the neural circuits, short- and long-term effects) of both endogenous acetylcholine and nicotine action. Finally, we try to link these neurobiological results with neuro-computational models of attention, valuation and action, and of the role of acetylcholine in these decision processes. This article is part of the Special Issue entitled 'The Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptor: From Molecular Biology to Cognition'. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk management with substitution options: Valuing flexibility in small-scale energy systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Karl Eric

Several features of small-scale energy systems make them more easily adapted to a changing operating environment than large centralized designs. This flexibility is often manifested as the ability to substitute inputs. This research explores the value of this substitution flexibility and the marginal value of becoming a "little more flexible" in the context of real project investment in developing countries. The elasticity of substitution is proposed as a stylized measure of flexibility and a choice variable. A flexible alternative (elasticity > 0) can be thought of as holding a fixed-proportions "nflexible" asset plus a sequence of exchange options---the option to move to another feasible "recipe" each period. Substitutability derives value from following a contour of anticipated variations and from responding to new information. Substitutability value, a "cost savings option", increases with elasticity and price risk. However, the required premium to incrementally increase flexibility can in some cases decrease with an increase in risk. Variance is not always a measure of risk. Tools from stochastic dominance are newly applied to real options with convex payoffs to correct some misperceptions and clarify many common modeling situations that meet the criteria for increased variance to imply increased risk. The behavior of the cost savings option is explored subject to a stochastic input price process. At the point where costs are identical for all alternatives, the stochastic process for cost savings becomes deterministic, with savings directly proportional to elasticity of substitution and price variance. The option is also formulated as a derivative security via dynamic programming. The partial differential equation is solved for the special case of Cobb-Douglas (elasticity = 1) (also shown are linear (infinite elasticity), Leontief (elasticity = 0)). Risk aversion is insufficient to prefer a more flexible alternative with the same expected value. Intertemporal links convert the sequence of independent options to a single compound option and require an expansion of the flexibility concept. Additional options increase the value of the project but generally decrease flexibility value. The framework is applied to case study in India: an urban industry electricity strategy decision with reliability risk.

Reflexive Principlism as an Effective Approach for Developing Ethical Reasoning in Engineering.

PubMed

Beever, Jonathan; Brightman, Andrew O

2016-02-01

An important goal of teaching ethics to engineering students is to enhance their ability to make well-reasoned ethical decisions in their engineering practice: a goal in line with the stated ethical codes of professional engineering organizations. While engineering educators have explored a wide range of methodologies for teaching ethics, a satisfying model for developing ethical reasoning skills has not been adopted broadly. In this paper we argue that a principlist-based approach to ethical reasoning is uniquely suited to engineering ethics education. Reflexive Principlism is an approach to ethical decision-making that focuses on internalizing a reflective and iterative process of specification, balancing, and justification of four core ethical principles in the context of specific cases. In engineering, that approach provides structure to ethical reasoning while allowing the flexibility for adaptation to varying contexts through specification. Reflexive Principlism integrates well with the prevalent and familiar methodologies of reasoning within the engineering disciplines as well as with the goals of engineering ethics education.

Rare Cancers Europe (RCE) methodological recommendations for clinical studies in rare cancers: a European consensus position paper.

PubMed

Casali, P G; Bruzzi, P; Bogaerts, J; Blay, J-Y

2015-02-01

While they account for one-fifth of new cancer cases, rare cancers are difficult to study. A higher than average degree of uncertainty should be accommodated for clinical as well as for population-based decision making. Rules of rational decision making in conditions of uncertainty should be rigorously followed and would need widely informative clinical trials. In principle, any piece of new evidence would need to be exploited in rare cancers. Methodologies to explicitly weigh and combine all the available evidence should be refined, and the Bayesian logic can be instrumental to this end. Likewise, Bayesian-design trials may help optimize the low number of patients liable to be enrolled in clinical studies on rare cancers, as well as adaptive trials in general, with their inherent potential of flexibility when properly applied. While clinical studies are the mainstay to test hypotheses, the potential of electronic patient records should be exploited to generate new hypotheses, to create external controls for future studies (when internal controls are unpractical), to study effectiveness of new treatments in real conditions. Framework study protocols in specific rare cancers to sequentially test sets of new agents, as from the early post-phase I development stage, should be encouraged. Also the compassionate and the off-label settings should be exploited to generate new evidence, and flexible regulatory innovations such as adaptive licensing could convey new agents early to rare cancer patients, while generating evidence. Though validation of surrogate end points is problematic in rare cancers, the use of an updated notion of tumor response may be of great value in the single patient to optimize the use of therapies, all the more the new ones. Disease-based communities, involving clinicians and patients, should be regularly consulted by regulatory bodies when setting their policies on drug approval and reimbursement in specific rare cancers. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology.

A Visual Analytics Approach for Station-Based Air Quality Data

PubMed Central

Du, Yi; Ma, Cuixia; Wu, Chao; Xu, Xiaowei; Guo, Yike; Zhou, Yuanchun; Li, Jianhui

2016-01-01

With the deployment of multi-modality and large-scale sensor networks for monitoring air quality, we are now able to collect large and multi-dimensional spatio-temporal datasets. For these sensed data, we present a comprehensive visual analysis approach for air quality analysis. This approach integrates several visual methods, such as map-based views, calendar views, and trends views, to assist the analysis. Among those visual methods, map-based visual methods are used to display the locations of interest, and the calendar and the trends views are used to discover the linear and periodical patterns. The system also provides various interaction tools to combine the map-based visualization, trends view, calendar view and multi-dimensional view. In addition, we propose a self-adaptive calendar-based controller that can flexibly adapt the changes of data size and granularity in trends view. Such a visual analytics system would facilitate big-data analysis in real applications, especially for decision making support. PMID:28029117

Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.; Cross, Molly S.; Dubois, Natalie S.; Duffy, J. Emmett; Enquist, Carolyn; Griffis, Roger; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; O’Leary, John; Morrison, Scott A.; Sneddon, Lesley; Stein, Bruce A.; Thompson, Laura M.; Turner, Woody

2013-01-01

This paper provides a synthesis of the recent literature describing how global biodiversity is being affected by climate change and is projected to respond in the future. Current studies reinforce earlier findings of major climate-change-related impacts on biological systems and document new, more subtle after-effects. For example, many species are shifting their distributions and phenologies at faster rates than were recorded just a few years ago; however, responses are not uniform across species. Shifts have been idiosyncratic and in some cases counterintuitive, promoting new community compositions and altering biotic interactions. Although genetic diversity enhances species' potential to respond to variable conditions, climate change may outpace intrinsic adaptive capacities and increase the relative vulnerabilities of many organisms. Developing effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation will not only require flexible decision-making and management approaches that account for uncertainties in climate projections and ecological responses but will also necessitate coordinated monitoring efforts.

A Visual Analytics Approach for Station-Based Air Quality Data.

PubMed

Du, Yi; Ma, Cuixia; Wu, Chao; Xu, Xiaowei; Guo, Yike; Zhou, Yuanchun; Li, Jianhui

2016-12-24

With the deployment of multi-modality and large-scale sensor networks for monitoring air quality, we are now able to collect large and multi-dimensional spatio-temporal datasets. For these sensed data, we present a comprehensive visual analysis approach for air quality analysis. This approach integrates several visual methods, such as map-based views, calendar views, and trends views, to assist the analysis. Among those visual methods, map-based visual methods are used to display the locations of interest, and the calendar and the trends views are used to discover the linear and periodical patterns. The system also provides various interaction tools to combine the map-based visualization, trends view, calendar view and multi-dimensional view. In addition, we propose a self-adaptive calendar-based controller that can flexibly adapt the changes of data size and granularity in trends view. Such a visual analytics system would facilitate big-data analysis in real applications, especially for decision making support.

Direct model reference adaptive control of a flexible robotic manipulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meldrum, D. R.

1985-01-01

Quick, precise control of a flexible manipulator in a space environment is essential for future Space Station repair and satellite servicing. Numerous control algorithms have proven successful in controlling rigid manipulators wih colocated sensors and actuators; however, few have been tested on a flexible manipulator with noncolocated sensors and actuators. In this thesis, a model reference adaptive control (MRAC) scheme based on command generator tracker theory is designed for a flexible manipulator. Quicker, more precise tracking results are expected over nonadaptive control laws for this MRAC approach. Equations of motion in modal coordinates are derived for a single-link, flexible manipulator with an actuator at the pinned-end and a sensor at the free end. An MRAC is designed with the objective of controlling the torquing actuator so that the tip position follows a trajectory that is prescribed by the reference model. An appealing feature of this direct MRAC law is that it allows the reference model to have fewer states than the plant itself. Direct adaptive control also adjusts the controller parameters directly with knowledge of only the plant output and input signals.

Flexibility and Stability Trade-Off in Active Site of Cold-Adapted Pseudomonas mandelii Esterase EstK.

PubMed

Truongvan, Ngoc; Jang, Sei-Heon; Lee, ChangWoo

2016-06-28

Cold-adapted enzymes exhibit enhanced conformational flexibility, especially in their active sites, as compared with their warmer-temperature counterparts. However, the mechanism by which cold-adapted enzymes maintain their active site stability is largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the role of conserved D308-Y309 residues located in the same loop as the catalytic H307 residue in the cold-adapted esterase EstK from Pseudomonas mandelii. Mutation of D308 and/or Y309 to Ala or deletion resulted in increased conformational flexibility. Particularly, the D308A or Y309A mutant showed enhanced substrate affinity and catalytic rate, as compared with wild-type EstK, via enlargement of the active site. However, all mutant EstK enzymes exhibited reduced thermal stability. The effect of mutation was greater for D308 than Y309. These results indicate that D308 is not preferable for substrate selection and catalytic activity, whereas hydrogen bond formation involving D308 is critical for active site stabilization. Taken together, conformation of the EstK active site is constrained via flexibility-stability trade-off for enzyme catalysis and thermal stability. Our study provides further insights into active site stabilization of cold-adapted enzymes.

An adaptive control scheme for a flexible manipulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, T. C.; Yang, J. C. S.; Kudva, P.

1987-01-01

The problem of controlling a single link flexible manipulator is considered. A self-tuning adaptive control scheme is proposed which consists of a least squares on-line parameter identification of an equivalent linear model followed by a tuning of the gains of a pole placement controller using the parameter estimates. Since the initial parameter values for this model are assumed unknown, the use of arbitrarily chosen initial parameter estimates in the adaptive controller would result in undesirable transient effects. Hence, the initial stage control is carried out with a PID controller. Once the identified parameters have converged, control is transferred to the adaptive controller. Naturally, the relevant issues in this scheme are tests for parameter convergence and minimization of overshoots during control switch-over. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, simulation results are presented with an analytical nonlinear dynamic model of a single link flexible manipulator.

Toolbox or Adjustable Spanner? A Critical Comparison of Two Metaphors for Adaptive Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt

2016-01-01

For multiattribute decision tasks, different metaphors exist that describe the process of decision making and its adaptation to diverse problems and situations. Multiple strategy models (MSMs) assume that decision makers choose adaptively from a set of different strategies (toolbox metaphor), whereas evidence accumulation models (EAMs) hold that a…

Facing the limit of resilience: perceptions of climate change among reindeer herding Sami in Sweden.

PubMed

Furberg, Maria; Evengård, Birgitta; Nilsson, Maria

2011-01-01

The Arctic area is a part of the globe where the increase in global temperature has had the earliest noticeable effect and indigenous peoples, including the Swedish reindeer herding Sami, are amongst the first to be affected by these changes. To explore the experiences and perceptions of climate change among Swedish reindeer herding Sami. In-depth interviews with 14 Swedish reindeer herding Sami were performed, with purposive sampling. The interviews focused on the herders experiences of climate change, observed consequences and thoughts about this. The interviews were analysed using content analysis. One core theme emerged from the interviews: facing the limit of resilience. Swedish reindeer-herding Sami perceive climate change as yet another stressor in their daily struggle. They have experienced severe and more rapidly shifting, unstable weather with associated changes in vegetation and alterations in the freeze-thaw cycle, all of which affect reindeer herding. The forecasts about climate change from authorities and scientists have contributed to stress and anxiety. Other societal developments have lead to decreased flexibility that obstructs adaptation. Some adaptive strategies are discordant with the traditional life of reindeer herding, and there is a fear among the Sami of being the last generation practising traditional reindeer herding. The study illustrates the vulnerable situation of the reindeer herders and that climate change impact may have serious consequences for the trade and their overall way of life. Decision makers on all levels, both in Sweden and internationally, need improved insights into these complex issues to be able to make adequate decisions about adaptive climate change strategies.

Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Brewington, L.; Finucane, M.

2015-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui in Hawai'i has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to both surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for sustainable future freshwater supply in Hawai'i requires adaptive policies and decision-making that emphasizes private and public partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. We have downscaled dynamical climate models to 1 km resolution in Maui and coupled them with a USGS Water Budget model and a participatory scenario building process to quantify future changes in island-scale climate and groundwater recharge under different land uses. Although these projections are uncertain, the integrated nature of the Pacific RISA research program has allowed us to take a multi-pronged approach to facilitate the uptake of climate information into policy and management. This presentation details the ongoing work to support the development of Hawai'i's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of ~100 decision-makers in state and local government, watershed restoration, agriculture, and conservation to 1) determine the type of information (climate variables, land use and development, agricultural practices) they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of nested scenarios that represent alternative climate and management futures. This integration of knowledge is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives of complex futures comprised of information at multiple scales. We will present an overview of the downscaling, scenario building, hydrological modeling processes, and stakeholder response.

Decentralized model reference adaptive control of large flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Fu-Ming; Fong, I-Kong; Lin, Yu-Hwan

1988-01-01

A decentralized model reference adaptive control (DMRAC) method is developed for large flexible structures (LFS). The development follows that of a centralized model reference adaptive control for LFS that have been shown to be feasible. The proposed method is illustrated using a simply supported beam with collocated actuators and sensors. Results show that the DMRAC can achieve either output regulation or output tracking with adequate convergence, provided the reference model inputs and their time derivatives are integrable, bounded, and approach zero as t approaches infinity.

The control of flexible structure vibrations using a cantilevered adaptive truss

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wynn, Robert H., Jr.; Robertshaw, Harry H.

1991-01-01

Analytical and experimental procedures and design tools are presented for the control of flexible structure vibrations using a cantilevered adaptive truss. Simulated and experimental data are examined for three types of structures: a slender beam, a single curved beam, and two curved beams. The adaptive truss is shown to produce a 6,000-percent increase in damping, demonstrating its potential in vibration control. Good agreement is obtained between the simulated and experimental data, thus validating the modeling methods.

Factors influencing career decisions in internal medicine.

PubMed

Macdonald, C; Cawood, T

2012-08-01

Numerous factors influence career decisions for internal medicine trainees and Fellows. There is a perception that a greater emphasis is placed on work-family balance by younger physicians. To determine the characteristics of the modern internal medicine workforce and ascertain whether job flexibility is important to career decision-making. We hypothesised that factors which reflect flexibility would be highly influential in decision-making, especially for women and those with young children. A questionnaire was mailed to 250 New Zealand internal medicine trainees and Fellows. It focused on factors, including job flexibility, interest and collegial support, and included demographic details which were primarily aimed at ascertaining family responsibilities. Response rate was 54%. The majority of female physicians are the main person responsible for their children (62%), and the majority of their partners work full-time (80%). This contrasts with male physicians, of whom only 4% are the main person responsible for their children. Flexibility was found to be more influential in women, those with young children, trainees and those working in outpatient-based subspecialties. However, contrary to our original hypothesis, flexibility was not reported to be highly influential in any group, with career choice being most influenced by interest and enjoyment, intellectual challenge and variety within the job. It is hoped that results will inform employers and those involved with training to enable them to better cater for the needs of the workforce and also encourage trainees to consider future family commitments when making career decisions. © 2012 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2012 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

The effects of corticosteroids on cognitive flexibility and decision-making in women with lupus.

PubMed

Montero-López, E; Santos-Ruiz, A; Navarrete-Navarrete, N; Ortego-Centeno, N; Pérez-García, M; Peralta-Ramírez, M I

2016-11-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the possible effects of corticosteroids in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in two processes of executive function: cognitive flexibility and decision-making. To that end, we evaluated 121 women divided into three groups: 50 healthy women, 38 women with SLE not receiving corticosteroid treatment and 33 women with SLE receiving corticosteroid treatment. Cognitive flexibility was measured with the Trail Making Tests A and B; decision-making was measured with the Iowa Gambling Task. Additionally, demographic (age and education level), clinical (SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI), Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Damage Index (SDI) and disease duration) and psychological characteristics (stress vulnerability, perceived stress and psychopathic symptomatology) were evaluated. The results showed that both SLE groups displayed poorer decision-making than the healthy women ( p = 0.006) and also that the SLE group receiving corticosteroid treatment showed lower cognitive flexibility than the other two groups ( p = 0.030). Moreover, SLE patients showed poorer scores than healthy women on the following SCL-90-R subscales: somatisation ( p = 0.005), obsessions and compulsions ( p = 0.045), depression ( p = 0.004), hostility ( p = 0.013), phobic anxiety ( p = 0.005), psychoticism ( p = 0.016) and positive symptom total ( p = 0.001). In addition, both SLE groups were more vulnerable to stress ( p = 0.000). These findings help to understand the effects of corticosteroid treatment on cognitive flexibility and decision-making, in addition to the disease-specific effects suffered by women with SLE.

A framework to investigate drivers of adaptation decisions in marine fishing: Evidence from urban, semi-urban and rural communities.

PubMed

Malakar, Krishna; Mishra, Trupti; Patwardhan, Anand

2018-05-11

Traditional fishing livelihoods need to adapt to changing fish catch/populations, led by numerous anthropogenic, environmental and climatic stressors. The decision to adapt can be influenced by a variety of socio-economic and perceptual factors. However, adaptation decision-making in fishing communities has rarely been studied. Based on previous literature and focus group discussions with community, this study identifies few prominent adaptation responses in marine fishing and proposes credible factors driving decisions to adopt them. Further, a household survey is conducted, and the association of these drivers with various adaptation strategies is examined among fisherfolk of Maharashtra (India). This statistical analysis is based on 601 responses collected across three regional fishing groups: urban, semi-urban and rural. Regional segregation is done to understand variability in decision-making among groups which might be having different socio-economic and perceptual attributes. The survey reveals that only few urban fishing households have been able to diversify into other livelihoods. While having economic capital increases the likelihood of adaptation among urban and semi-urban communities, rural fishermen are significantly driven by social capital. Perception of climate change affecting fish catch drives adoption of mechanized boats solely in urban region. But increasing number of extreme events affects decisions of semi-urban and rural fishermen. Further, rising pollution and trade competition is associated with adaptation responses in the urban and semi-urban community. Higher education might help fishermen choose convenient forms of adaptation. Also, cooperative membership and subsidies are critical in adaptation decisions. The framework and insights of the study suggest the importance of acknowledging differential decision-making of individuals and communities, for designing effective adaptation and capacity-building policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of the Coping Flexibility Scale: Evidence for the Coping Flexibility Hypothesis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kato, Tsukasa

2012-01-01

"Coping flexibility" was defined as the ability to discontinue an ineffective coping strategy (i.e., evaluation coping) and produce and implement an alternative coping strategy (i.e., adaptive coping). The Coping Flexibility Scale (CFS) was developed on the basis of this definition. Five studies involving approximately 4,400 Japanese…

Designing for flexible interaction between humans and automation: delegation interfaces for supervisory control.

PubMed

Miller, Christopher A; Parasuraman, Raja

2007-02-01

To develop a method enabling human-like, flexible supervisory control via delegation to automation. Real-time supervisory relationships with automation are rarely as flexible as human task delegation to other humans. Flexibility in human-adaptable automation can provide important benefits, including improved situation awareness, more accurate automation usage, more balanced mental workload, increased user acceptance, and improved overall performance. We review problems with static and adaptive (as opposed to "adaptable") automation; contrast these approaches with human-human task delegation, which can mitigate many of the problems; and revise the concept of a "level of automation" as a pattern of task-based roles and authorizations. We argue that delegation requires a shared hierarchical task model between supervisor and subordinates, used to delegate tasks at various levels, and offer instruction on performing them. A prototype implementation called Playbook is described. On the basis of these analyses, we propose methods for supporting human-machine delegation interactions that parallel human-human delegation in important respects. We develop an architecture for machine-based delegation systems based on the metaphor of a sports team's "playbook." Finally, we describe a prototype implementation of this architecture, with an accompanying user interface and usage scenario, for mission planning for uninhabited air vehicles. Delegation offers a viable method for flexible, multilevel human-automation interaction to enhance system performance while maintaining user workload at a manageable level. Most applications of adaptive automation (aviation, air traffic control, robotics, process control, etc.) are potential avenues for the adaptable, delegation approach we advocate. We present an extended example for uninhabited air vehicle mission planning.

Robust adaptive vibration control of a flexible structure.

PubMed

Khoshnood, A M; Moradi, H M

2014-07-01

Different types of L1 adaptive control systems show that using robust theories with adaptive control approaches has produced high performance controllers. In this study, a model reference adaptive control scheme considering robust theories is used to propose a practical control system for vibration suppression of a flexible launch vehicle (FLV). In this method, control input of the system is shaped from the dynamic model of the vehicle and components of the control input are adaptively constructed by estimating the undesirable vibration frequencies. Robust stability of the adaptive vibration control system is guaranteed by using the L1 small gain theorem. Simulation results of the robust adaptive vibration control strategy confirm that the effects of vibration on the vehicle performance considerably decrease without the loss of the phase margin of the system. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A bacterial acyl aminoacyl peptidase couples flexibility and stability as a result of cold adaptation.

PubMed

Brocca, Stefania; Ferrari, Cristian; Barbiroli, Alberto; Pesce, Alessandra; Lotti, Marina; Nardini, Marco

2016-12-01

Life in cold environments requires an overall increase in the flexibility of macromolecular and supramolecular structures to allow biological processes to take place at low temperature. Conformational flexibility supports high catalytic rates of enzymes in the cold but in several cases is also a cause of instability. The three-dimensional structure of the psychrophilic acyl aminoacyl peptidase from Sporosarcina psychrophila (SpAAP) reported in this paper highlights adaptive molecular changes resulting in a fine-tuned trade-off between flexibility and stability. In its functional form SpAAP is a dimer, and an increase in flexibility is achieved through loosening of intersubunit hydrophobic interactions. The release of subunits from the quaternary structure is hindered by an 'arm exchange' mechanism, in which a tiny structural element at the N terminus of one subunit inserts into the other subunit. Mutants lacking the 'arm' are monomeric, inactive and highly prone to aggregation. Another feature of SpAAP cold adaptation is the enlargement of the tunnel connecting the exterior of the protein with the active site. Such a wide channel might compensate for the reduced molecular motions occurring in the cold and allow easy and direct access of substrates to the catalytic site, rendering transient movements between domains unnecessary. Thus, cold-adapted SpAAP has developed a molecular strategy unique within this group of proteins: it is able to enhance the flexibility of each functional unit while still preserving sufficient stability. Structural data are available in the Protein Data Bank under the accession number 5L8S. © 2016 Federation of European Biochemical Societies.

An insula-frontostriatal network mediates flexible cognitive control by adaptively predicting changing control demands

PubMed Central

Jiang, Jiefeng; Beck, Jeffrey; Heller, Katherine; Egner, Tobias

2015-01-01

The anterior cingulate and lateral prefrontal cortices have been implicated in implementing context-appropriate attentional control, but the learning mechanisms underlying our ability to flexibly adapt the control settings to changing environments remain poorly understood. Here we show that human adjustments to varying control demands are captured by a reinforcement learner with a flexible, volatility-driven learning rate. Using model-based functional magnetic resonance imaging, we demonstrate that volatility of control demand is estimated by the anterior insula, which in turn optimizes the prediction of forthcoming demand in the caudate nucleus. The caudate's prediction of control demand subsequently guides the implementation of proactive and reactive attentional control in dorsal anterior cingulate and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices. These data enhance our understanding of the neuro-computational mechanisms of adaptive behaviour by connecting the classic cingulate-prefrontal cognitive control network to a subcortical control-learning mechanism that infers future demands by flexibly integrating remote and recent past experiences. PMID:26391305

Metabolic flexibility as an adaptation to energy resources and requirements in health and disease.

PubMed

Smith, Reuben L; Soeters, Maarten R; Wüst, Rob C I; Houtkooper, Riekelt H

2018-04-24

The ability to efficiently adapt metabolism by substrate sensing, trafficking, storage and utilization, dependent on availability and requirement is known as metabolic flexibility. In this review, we discuss the breadth and depth of metabolic flexibility and its impact on health and disease. Metabolic flexibility is essential to maintain energy homeostasis in times of either caloric excess or caloric restriction, and in times of either low or high energy demand, such as during exercise. The liver, adipose tissue and muscle govern systemic metabolic flexibility and manage nutrient sensing, uptake, transport, storage and expenditure by communication via endocrine cues. At a molecular level, metabolic flexibility relies on the configuration of metabolic pathways which is regulated by key metabolic enzymes and transcription factors, many of which interact closely with the mitochondria. Disrupted metabolic flexibility, or metabolic inflexibility, however, is associated with many pathological conditions including metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and cancer. Multiple factors like dietary composition and feeding frequency, exercise training, and use of pharmacological compounds influence metabolic flexibility and will be discussed here. Lastly, we outline important advances in metabolic flexibility research and discuss medical horizons and translational aspects.

Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeuland, Marc; Whittington, Dale

2014-03-01

This article presents a methodology for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty. It combines a real options (e.g., options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, switch use, or otherwise alter a capital investment) approach with principles drawn from robust decision-making (RDM). RDM comprises a class of methods that are used to identify investment strategies that perform relatively well, compared to the alternatives, across a wide range of plausible future scenarios. Our proposed framework relies on a simulation model that includes linkages between climate change and system hydrology, combined with sensitivity analyses that explore how economic outcomes of investments in new dams vary with forecasts of changing runoff and other uncertainties. To demonstrate the framework, we consider the case of new multipurpose dams along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. We model flexibility in design and operating decisions—the selection, sizing, and sequencing of new dams, and reservoir operating rules. Results show that there is no single investment plan that performs best across a range of plausible future runoff conditions. The decision-analytic framework is then used to identify dam configurations that are both robust to poor outcomes and sufficiently flexible to capture high upside benefits if favorable future climate and hydrological conditions should arise. The approach could be extended to explore design and operating features of development and adaptation projects other than dams.

Adaptation Planning for Water Resources Management in the Context of Scientific Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowrey, J.; Kenney, D.

2008-12-01

Several municipalities are beginning to create policies and plans in order to adapt to potential impacts from climate change. A 2007 report from the Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment, 'A Survey of Climate Change Adaptation Planning,' surveyed fourteen cities or counties across the U.S. and Canada that have created or are working towards creating climate change adaptation plans. Informal interactions with water managers in the Intermountain West indicate an eagerness to learn from those who have already begun adapting to potential climate change. Many of those without plans do not feel comfortable making potentially expensive long-term policy decisions based on impacts derived from uncertain climate change projections. This research identifies how decision makers currently consider climate change in adaptation planning despite imperfect information about climate change impacts, particularly in the water sector. Insights are offered into how best to provide information on climate change projections to regional decision makers so that they can begin adaptation planning for a changing climate. This research analyzes how a subset of the fourteen municipalities justified adaptive planning in the face of scientific uncertainty, paying particular attention to water resource adaptation, using the adaptation approaches studied in the 2007 Heinz Center Report. Interviews will be conducted with decision makers to learn how policies will be implemented and evaluated, and to explore resulting changes in policy or planning. Adaptation strategies are not assessed, but are used to identify how the decision makers plan to evaluate their own adaptation policies. In addition to looking at information use in adaptation plans, we compare how the plans orient themselves (adapting to projected impacts vs. increasing resiliency to current climate variability), how they address barriers and opportunities for adaptation, and whether they follow some key steps for successful adaptation as outlined in the literature. This part of the study will identify any consensus among the municipalities already adapting, and see of the decision makers tend to agree with the points of views expressed in the literature. The conclusions here will not only help decision makers trying to adapt, but it will help researchers orient future research to the informational needs of the decision makers. The work is intended to provide useful information for the Western Water Assessment, a NOAA-funded research boundary organization, which provides climate information to water resource managers in the Intermountain West, including the Colorado River Basin.

Integrated Modeling and Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.; Brewington, L.

2014-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui, Hawaii, has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for adequate future freshwater resources requires flexible and adaptive policies that emphasize partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. In 2012 the Hawai'i state legislature passed the Climate Change Adaptation Priority Guidelines (Act 286) law requiring county and state policy makers to include island-wide climate change scenarios in their planning processes. This research details the ongoing work by researchers in the NOAA funded Pacific RISA to support the development of Hawaii's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. This integrated project combines several models with participatory future scenario planning. The dynamically downscaled triply nested Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) was modified from the WRF community model and calibrated to simulate the many microclimates on the Hawaiian archipelago. For the island of Maui, the HRCM was validated using 20 years of hindcast data, and daily projections were created at a 1 km scale to capture the steep topography and diverse rainfall regimes. Downscaled climate data are input into a USGS hydrological model to quantify groundwater recharge. This model was previously used for groundwater management, and is being expanded utilizing future climate projections, current land use maps and future scenario maps informed by stakeholder input. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of over 50 decision-makers in government, conservation, and agriculture to 1) determine the type of information they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of scenarios that represent alternative climate/management futures. This is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives at multiple scales. The resulting climate, land use, and groundwater recharge maps give stakeholders a common set of future scenarios that they understand through the participatory scenario process, and identify the vulnerabilities, trade-offs, and adaptive priorities for different groundwater management and land uses in an uncertain future.

Optimum Aggregation and Control of Spatially Distributed Flexible Resources in Smart Grid

DOE PAGES

Bhattarai, Bishnu; Mendaza, Iker Diaz de Cerio; Myers, Kurt S.; ...

2017-03-24

This paper presents an algorithm to optimally aggregate spatially distributed flexible resources at strategic microgrid/smart-grid locations. The aggregation reduces a distribution network having thousands of nodes to an equivalent network with a few aggregated nodes, thereby enabling distribution system operators (DSOs) to make faster operational decisions. Moreover, the aggregation enables flexibility from small distributed flexible resources to be traded to different power and energy markets. A hierarchical control architecture comprising a combination of centralized and decentralized control approaches is proposed to practically deploy the aggregated flexibility. The proposed method serves as a great operational tool for DSOs to decide themore » exact amount of required flexibilities from different network section(s) for solving grid constraint violations. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through simulation of three operational scenarios in a real low voltage distribution system having high penetrations of electric vehicles and heat pumps. Finally, the simulation results demonstrated that the aggregation helps DSOs not only in taking faster operational decisions, but also in effectively utilizing the available flexibility.« less

Optimum Aggregation and Control of Spatially Distributed Flexible Resources in Smart Grid

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhattarai, Bishnu; Mendaza, Iker Diaz de Cerio; Myers, Kurt S.

This paper presents an algorithm to optimally aggregate spatially distributed flexible resources at strategic microgrid/smart-grid locations. The aggregation reduces a distribution network having thousands of nodes to an equivalent network with a few aggregated nodes, thereby enabling distribution system operators (DSOs) to make faster operational decisions. Moreover, the aggregation enables flexibility from small distributed flexible resources to be traded to different power and energy markets. A hierarchical control architecture comprising a combination of centralized and decentralized control approaches is proposed to practically deploy the aggregated flexibility. The proposed method serves as a great operational tool for DSOs to decide themore » exact amount of required flexibilities from different network section(s) for solving grid constraint violations. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through simulation of three operational scenarios in a real low voltage distribution system having high penetrations of electric vehicles and heat pumps. Finally, the simulation results demonstrated that the aggregation helps DSOs not only in taking faster operational decisions, but also in effectively utilizing the available flexibility.« less

Application of model reference adaptive control to a flexible remote manipulator arm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meldrum, D. R.; Balas, M. J.

1986-01-01

An exact modal state-space representation is derived in detail for a single-link, flexible remote manipulator with a noncollocated sensor and actuator. A direct model following adaptive controller is designed to control the torque at the pinned end of the arm so as to command the free end to track a prescribed sinusoidal motion. Conditions that must be satisfied in order for the controller to work are stated. Simulation results to date are discussed along with the potential of the model following adaptive control scheme in robotics and space environments.

Active vibration suppression of self-excited structures using an adaptive LMS algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danda Roy, Indranil

The purpose of this investigation is to study the feasibility of an adaptive feedforward controller for active flutter suppression in representative linear wing models. The ability of the controller to suppress limit-cycle oscillations in wing models having root springs with freeplay nonlinearities has also been studied. For the purposes of numerical simulation, mathematical models of a rigid and a flexible wing structure have been developed. The rigid wing model is represented by a simple three-degree-of-freedom airfoil while the flexible wing is modelled by a multi-degree-of-freedom finite element representation with beam elements for bending and rod elements for torsion. Control action is provided by one or more flaps attached to the trailing edge and extending along the entire wing span for the rigid model and a fraction of the wing span for the flexible model. Both two-dimensional quasi-steady aerodynamics and time-domain unsteady aerodynamics have been used to generate the airforces in the wing models. An adaptive feedforward controller has been designed based on the filtered-X Least Mean Squares (LMS) algorithm. The control configuration for the rigid wing model is single-input single-output (SISO) while both SISO and multi-input multi-output (MIMO) configurations have been applied on the flexible wing model. The controller includes an on-line adaptive system identification scheme which provides the LMS controller with a reasonably accurate model of the plant. This enables the adaptive controller to track time-varying parameters in the plant and provide effective control. The wing models in closed-loop exhibit highly damped responses at airspeeds where the open-loop responses are destructive. Simulations with the rigid and the flexible wing models in a time-varying airstream show a 63% and 53% increase, respectively, over their corresponding open-loop flutter airspeeds. The ability of the LMS controller to suppress wing store flutter in the two models has also been investigated. With 10% measurement noise introduced in the flexible wing model, the controller demonstrated good robustness to the extraneous disturbances. In the examples studied it is found that adaptation is rapid enough to successfully control flutter at accelerations in the airstream of up to 15 ft/sec2 for the rigid wing model and 9 ft/sec2 for the flexible wing model.

Application of Adaptive Decision Aiding Systems to Computer-Assisted Instruction. Final Report, January-December 1974.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

May, Donald M.; And Others

The minicomputer-based Computerized Diagnostic and Decision Training (CDDT) system described combines the principles of artificial intelligence, decision theory, and adaptive computer assisted instruction for training in electronic troubleshooting. The system incorporates an adaptive computer program which learns the student's diagnostic and…

Cognitive Similarities between Academically and Socially Gifted Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Karen; Day, Jeanne D.

1996-01-01

This article compares research findings on heightened cognitive flexibility in academically gifted children and similar flexibility in social intelligence. It proposes that social-cognitive flexibility (the ability to adapt prior social knowledge to formulate solutions to new interpersonal situations) is an important component of social…

Adaptive Strategies for Controls of Flexible Arms. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuan, Bau-San

1989-01-01

An adaptive controller for a modern manipulator has been designed based on asymptotical stability via the Lyapunov criterion with the output error between the system and a reference model used as the actuating control signal. Computer simulations were carried out to test the design. The combination of the adaptive controller and a system vibration and mode shape estimator show that the flexible arm should move along a pre-defined trajectory with high-speed motion and fast vibration setting time. An existing computer-controlled prototype two link manipulator, RALF (Robotic Arm, Large Flexible), with a parallel mechanism driven by hydraulic actuators was used to verify the mathematical analysis. The experimental results illustrate that assumed modes found from finite element techniques can be used to derive the equations of motion with acceptable accuracy. The robust adaptive (modal) control is implemented to compensate for unmodelled modes and nonlinearities and is compared with the joint feedback control in additional experiments. Preliminary results show promise for the experimental control algorithm.

Fatigue modulates dopamine availability and promotes flexible choice reversals during decision making.

PubMed

Iodice, Pierpaolo; Ferrante, Claudio; Brunetti, Luigi; Cabib, Simona; Protasi, Feliciano; Walton, Mark E; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2017-04-03

During decisions, animals balance goal achievement and effort management. Despite physical exercise and fatigue significantly affecting the levels of effort that an animal exerts to obtain a reward, their role in effort-based choice and the underlying neurochemistry are incompletely known. In particular, it is unclear whether fatigue influences decision (cost-benefit) strategies flexibly or only post-decision action execution and learning. To answer this question, we trained mice on a T-maze task in which they chose between a high-cost, high-reward arm (HR), which included a barrier, and a low-cost, low-reward arm (LR), with no barrier. The animals were parametrically fatigued immediately before the behavioural tasks by running on a treadmill. We report a sharp choice reversal, from the HR to LR arm, at 80% of their peak workload (PW), which was temporary and specific, as the mice returned to choose the HC when the animals were successively tested at 60% PW or in a two-barrier task. These rapid reversals are signatures of flexible choice. We also observed increased subcortical dopamine levels in fatigued mice: a marker of individual bias to use model-based control in humans. Our results indicate that fatigue levels can be incorporated in flexible cost-benefits computations that improve foraging efficiency.

Vlsi implementation of flexible architecture for decision tree classification in data mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, K. Venkatesh; Shewandagn, Behailu; Bhukya, Shankar Nayak

2017-07-01

The Data mining algorithms have become vital to researchers in science, engineering, medicine, business, search and security domains. In recent years, there has been a terrific raise in the size of the data being collected and analyzed. Classification is the main difficulty faced in data mining. In a number of the solutions developed for this problem, most accepted one is Decision Tree Classification (DTC) that gives high precision while handling very large amount of data. This paper presents VLSI implementation of flexible architecture for Decision Tree classification in data mining using c4.5 algorithm.

Vocal learning beyond imitation: mechanisms of adaptive vocal development in songbirds and human infants

PubMed Central

Tchernichovski, Ofer; Marcus, Gary

2014-01-01

Studies of vocal learning in songbirds typically focus on the acquisition of sensory templates for song imitation and on the consequent process of matching song production to templates. However, functional vocal development also requires the capacity to adaptively diverge from sensory templates, and to flexibly assemble vocal units. Examples of adaptive divergence include the corrective imitation of abnormal songs, and the decreased tendency to copy overabundant syllables. Such frequency-dependent effects might mirror tradeoffs between the assimilation of group identity (culture) while establishing individual and flexibly expressive songs. Intriguingly, although the requirements for vocal plasticity vary across songbirds, and more so between birdsong and language, the capacity to flexibly assemble vocal sounds develops in a similar, stepwise manner across species. Therefore, universal features of vocal learning go well beyond the capacity to imitate. PMID:25005823

Adaptive precompensators for flexible-link manipulator control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzes, Anthony P.; Yurkovich, Stephen

1989-01-01

The application of input precompensators to flexible manipulators is considered. Frequency domain compensators color the input around the flexible mode locations, resulting in a bandstop or notch filter in cascade with the system. Time domain compensators apply a sequence of impulses at prespecified times related to the modal frequencies. The resulting control corresponds to a feedforward term that convolves in real-time the desired reference input with a sequence of impulses and produces a vibration-free output. An adaptive precompensator can be implemented by combining a frequency domain identification scheme which is used to estimate online the modal frequencies and subsequently update the bandstop interval or the spacing between the impulses. The combined adaptive input preshaping scheme provides the most rapid slew that results in a vibration-free output. Experimental results are presented to verify the results.

Flexible Retrieval: When True Inferences Produce False Memories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carpenter, Alexis C.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2017-01-01

Episodic memory involves flexible retrieval processes that allow us to link together distinct episodes, make novel inferences across overlapping events, and recombine elements of past experiences when imagining future events. However, the same flexible retrieval and recombination processes that underpin these adaptive functions may also leave…

Flexibility in Problem Solving: The Case of Equation Solving

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Star, Jon R.; Rittle-Johnson, Bethany

2008-01-01

A key learning outcome in problem-solving domains is the development of flexible knowledge, where learners know multiple strategies and adaptively choose efficient strategies. Two interventions hypothesized to improve flexibility in problem solving were experimentally evaluated: prompts to discover multiple strategies and direct instruction on…

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Adaptive Jacobian Fuzzy Attitude Control for Flexible Spacecraft Combined Attitude and Sun Tracking System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chak, Yew-Chung; Varatharajoo, Renuganth

2016-07-01

Many spacecraft attitude control systems today use reaction wheels to deliver precise torques to achieve three-axis attitude stabilization. However, irrecoverable mechanical failure of reaction wheels could potentially lead to mission interruption or total loss. The electrically-powered Solar Array Drive Assemblies (SADA) are usually installed in the pitch axis which rotate the solar arrays to track the Sun, can produce torques to compensate for the pitch-axis wheel failure. In addition, the attitude control of a flexible spacecraft poses a difficult problem. These difficulties include the strong nonlinear coupled dynamics between the rigid hub and flexible solar arrays, and the imprecisely known system parameters, such as inertia matrix, damping ratios, and flexible mode frequencies. In order to overcome these drawbacks, the adaptive Jacobian tracking fuzzy control is proposed for the combined attitude and sun-tracking control problem of a flexible spacecraft during attitude maneuvers in this work. For the adaptation of kinematic and dynamic uncertainties, the proposed scheme uses an adaptive sliding vector based on estimated attitude velocity via approximate Jacobian matrix. The unknown nonlinearities are approximated by deriving the fuzzy models with a set of linguistic If-Then rules using the idea of sector nonlinearity and local approximation in fuzzy partition spaces. The uncertain parameters of the estimated nonlinearities and the Jacobian matrix are being adjusted online by an adaptive law to realize feedback control. The attitude of the spacecraft can be directly controlled with the Jacobian feedback control when the attitude pointing trajectory is designed with respect to the spacecraft coordinate frame itself. A significant feature of this work is that the proposed adaptive Jacobian tracking scheme will result in not only the convergence of angular position and angular velocity tracking errors, but also the convergence of estimated angular velocity to the actual angular velocity. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme in tracking the desired attitude, as well as suppressing the elastic deflection effects of solar arrays during maneuver.

Integrated and adaptive management of water resources: Tensions, legacies, and the next best thing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engle, Nathan L.; Johns, Owen R.; Lemos, Maria Carmen

2011-02-01

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) and adaptive management (AM) are two institutional and management paradigms designed to address shortcomings within water systems governance – the limits of hierarchical water institutional arrangements in the case of IWRM and the challenge of making water management decisions under uncertainty in the case of AM. Recently, there has been a trend to merge these paradigms to address the growing complexity of stressors shaping water management, such as globalization and climate change. However, because many of these joint approaches have received little empirical attention, questions remain about how they might work (or not) in practice.more » Here, we explore a few of these issues using empirical research carried out in Brazil. We focus on highlighting the potentially negative interactions, tensions, and tradeoffs between different institutions/mechanisms perceived as desirable as research and practice attempt to make water systems management simultaneously integrated and adaptive. Our examples pertain mainly on the use of techno-scientific knowledge in water management and governance in Brazil’s IWRM model and how it relates to participation, democracy, deliberation, diversity, and adaptability. We show that a legacy of technical and hierarchical management has shaped the integration of management, and subsequently, the degree to which management might also be adaptive. While integrated systems may be more legitimate and accountable than top-down command and control ones, the mechanisms of IWRM may be at odds with the flexible, experimental, and self-organizing nature of AM.« less

Empirical study of the dependence of the results of multivariable flexible survival analyses on model selection strategy.

PubMed

Binquet, C; Abrahamowicz, M; Mahboubi, A; Jooste, V; Faivre, J; Bonithon-Kopp, C; Quantin, C

2008-12-30

Flexible survival models, which avoid assumptions about hazards proportionality (PH) or linearity of continuous covariates effects, bring the issues of model selection to a new level of complexity. Each 'candidate covariate' requires inter-dependent decisions regarding (i) its inclusion in the model, and representation of its effects on the log hazard as (ii) either constant over time or time-dependent (TD) and, for continuous covariates, (iii) either loglinear or non-loglinear (NL). Moreover, 'optimal' decisions for one covariate depend on the decisions regarding others. Thus, some efficient model-building strategy is necessary.We carried out an empirical study of the impact of the model selection strategy on the estimates obtained in flexible multivariable survival analyses of prognostic factors for mortality in 273 gastric cancer patients. We used 10 different strategies to select alternative multivariable parametric as well as spline-based models, allowing flexible modeling of non-parametric (TD and/or NL) effects. We employed 5-fold cross-validation to compare the predictive ability of alternative models.All flexible models indicated significant non-linearity and changes over time in the effect of age at diagnosis. Conventional 'parametric' models suggested the lack of period effect, whereas more flexible strategies indicated a significant NL effect. Cross-validation confirmed that flexible models predicted better mortality. The resulting differences in the 'final model' selected by various strategies had also impact on the risk prediction for individual subjects.Overall, our analyses underline (a) the importance of accounting for significant non-parametric effects of covariates and (b) the need for developing accurate model selection strategies for flexible survival analyses. Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The financing gaps framework: using need, potential spending and expected spending to allocate development assistance for health

PubMed Central

Haakenstad, Annie; Templin, Tara; Lim, Stephen; Bump, Jesse B; Dieleman, Joseph

2018-01-01

Abstract As growth in development assistance for health levels off, development assistance partners must make allocation decisions within tighter budget constraints. Furthermore, with the advent of comprehensive and comparable burden of disease and health financing estimates, empirical evidence can increasingly be used to direct funding to those most in need. In our ‘financing gaps framework’, we propose a new approach for harnessing information to make decisions about health aid. The framework was designed to be forward-looking, goal-oriented, versatile and customizable to a range of organizational contexts and health aims. Our framework brings together expected health spending, potential health spending and spending need, to orient financing decisions around international health targets. As an example of how the framework could be applied, we develop a case study, focused on global goals for child health. The case study harnesses data from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study, Financing Global Health 2015, the WHO Global Health Observatory and National Health Accounts. Funding flows are tied to progress toward the Sustainable Development Goal’s target for reductions in under-five mortality. The flexibility and comprehensiveness of our framework makes it adaptable for use by a diverse set of governments, donors, policymakers and other stakeholders. The framework can be adapted to short‐ or long‐run time frames, cross‐country or subnational scales, and to a number of specific health focus areas. Depending on donor preferences, the framework can be deployed to incentivize local investments in health, ensuring the long-term sustainability of health systems in low- and middle-income countries, while also furnishing international support for progress toward global health goals. PMID:29415240

Associations between conceptual reasoning, problem solving, and adaptive ability in high-functioning autism.

PubMed

Williams, Diane L; Mazefsky, Carla A; Walker, Jon D; Minshew, Nancy J; Goldstein, Gerald

2014-11-01

Abstract thinking is generally highly correlated with problem-solving ability which is predictive of better adaptive functioning. Measures of conceptual reasoning, an ecologically-valid laboratory measure of problem-solving, and a report measure of adaptive functioning in the natural environment, were administered to children and adults with and without autism. The individuals with autism had weaker conceptual reasoning ability than individuals with typical development of similar age and cognitive ability. For the autism group, their flexible thinking scores were significantly correlated with laboratory measures of strategy formation and rule shifting and with reported overall adaptive behavior but not socialization scores. Therefore, in autism, flexibility of thought is potentially more important for adaptive functioning in the natural environment than conceptual reasoning or problem-solving.

Judging adaptive management practices of U.S. agencies.

PubMed

Fischman, Robert L; Ruhl, J B

2016-04-01

All U.S. federal agencies administering environmental laws purport to practice adaptive management (AM), but little is known about how they actually implement this conservation tool. A gap between the theory and practice of AM is revealed in judicial decisions reviewing agency adaptive management plans. We analyzed all U.S. federal court opinions published through 1 January 2015 to identify the agency AM practices courts found most deficient. The shortcomings included lack of clear objectives and processes, monitoring thresholds, and defined actions triggered by thresholds. This trio of agency shortcuts around critical, iterative steps characterizes what we call AM-lite. Passive AM differs from active AM in its relative lack of management interventions through experimental strategies. In contrast, AM-lite is a distinctive form of passive AM that fails to provide for the iterative steps necessary to learn from management. Courts have developed a sophisticated understanding of AM and often offer instructive rather than merely critical opinions. The role of the judiciary is limited by agency discretion under U.S. administrative law. But courts have overturned some agency AM-lite practices and insisted on more rigorous analyses to ensure that the promised benefits of structured learning and fine-tuned management have a reasonable likelihood of occurring. Nonetheless, there remains a mismatch in U.S. administrative law between the flexibility demanded by adaptive management and the legal objectives of transparency, public participation, and finality. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Adaptive predictors based on probabilistic SVM for real time disruption mitigation on JET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murari, A.; Lungaroni, M.; Peluso, E.; Gaudio, P.; Vega, J.; Dormido-Canto, S.; Baruzzo, M.; Gelfusa, M.; Contributors, JET

2018-05-01

Detecting disruptions with sufficient anticipation time is essential to undertake any form of remedial strategy, mitigation or avoidance. Traditional predictors based on machine learning techniques can be very performing, if properly optimised, but do not provide a natural estimate of the quality of their outputs and they typically age very quickly. In this paper a new set of tools, based on probabilistic extensions of support vector machines (SVM), are introduced and applied for the first time to JET data. The probabilistic output constitutes a natural qualification of the prediction quality and provides additional flexibility. An adaptive training strategy ‘from scratch’ has also been devised, which allows preserving the performance even when the experimental conditions change significantly. Large JET databases of disruptions, covering entire campaigns and thousands of discharges, have been analysed, both for the case of the graphite and the ITER Like Wall. Performance significantly better than any previous predictor using adaptive training has been achieved, satisfying even the requirements of the next generation of devices. The adaptive approach to the training has also provided unique information about the evolution of the operational space. The fact that the developed tools give the probability of disruption improves the interpretability of the results, provides an estimate of the predictor quality and gives new insights into the physics. Moreover, the probabilistic treatment permits to insert more easily these classifiers into general decision support and control systems.

Adaptive Regulation of the Northern California Reservoir System for Water, Energy, and Environmental Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgakakos, A. P.; Kistenmacher, M.; Yao, H.; Georgakakos, K. P.

2014-12-01

The 2014 National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program emphasizes that water resources managers and planners in most US regions will have to cope with new risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities, and recommends the development of adaptive capacity to effectively respond to the new water resources planning and management challenges. In the face of these challenges, adaptive reservoir regulation is becoming all the more ncessary. Water resources management in Northern California relies on the coordinated operation of several multi-objective reservoirs on the Trinity, Sacramento, American, Feather, and San Joaquin Rivers. To be effective, reservoir regulation must be able to (a) account for forecast uncertainty; (b) assess changing tradeoffs among water uses and regions; and (c) adjust management policies as conditions change; and (d) evaluate the socio-economic and environmental benefits and risks of forecasts and policies for each region and for the system as a whole. The Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) prototype demonstration project operated in Northern California through the collaboration of several forecast and management agencies has shown that decision support systems (DSS) with these attributes add value to stakeholder decision processes compared to current, less flexible management practices. Key features of the INFORM DSS include: (a) dynamically downscaled operational forecasts and climate projections that maintain the spatio-temporal coherence of the downscaled land surface forcing fields within synoptic scales; (b) use of ensemble forecast methodologies for reservoir inflows; (c) assessment of relevant tradeoffs among water uses on regional and local scales; (d) development and evaluation of dynamic reservoir policies with explicit consideration of hydro-climatic forecast uncertainties; and (e) focus on stakeholder information needs.This article discusses the INFORM integrated design concept, underlying methodologies, and selected applications with the California water resources system.

Facing the limit of resilience: perceptions of climate change among reindeer herding Sami in Sweden

PubMed Central

Furberg, Maria; Evengård, Birgitta; Nilsson, Maria

2011-01-01

Background The Arctic area is a part of the globe where the increase in global temperature has had the earliest noticeable effect and indigenous peoples, including the Swedish reindeer herding Sami, are amongst the first to be affected by these changes. Objective To explore the experiences and perceptions of climate change among Swedish reindeer herding Sami. Study design In-depth interviews with 14 Swedish reindeer herding Sami were performed, with purposive sampling. The interviews focused on the herders experiences of climate change, observed consequences and thoughts about this. The interviews were analysed using content analysis. Results One core theme emerged from the interviews: facing the limit of resilience. Swedish reindeer-herding Sami perceive climate change as yet another stressor in their daily struggle. They have experienced severe and more rapidly shifting, unstable weather with associated changes in vegetation and alterations in the freeze–thaw cycle, all of which affect reindeer herding. The forecasts about climate change from authorities and scientists have contributed to stress and anxiety. Other societal developments have lead to decreased flexibility that obstructs adaptation. Some adaptive strategies are discordant with the traditional life of reindeer herding, and there is a fear among the Sami of being the last generation practising traditional reindeer herding. Conclusions The study illustrates the vulnerable situation of the reindeer herders and that climate change impact may have serious consequences for the trade and their overall way of life. Decision makers on all levels, both in Sweden and internationally, need improved insights into these complex issues to be able to make adequate decisions about adaptive climate change strategies. PMID:22043218

Image-guided positioning and tracking.

PubMed

Ruan, Dan; Kupelian, Patrick; Low, Daniel A

2011-01-01

Radiation therapy aims at maximizing tumor control while minimizing normal tissue complication. The introduction of stereotactic treatment explores the volume effect and achieves dose escalation to tumor target with small margins. The use of ablative irradiation dose and sharp dose gradients requires accurate tumor definition and alignment between patient and treatment geometry. Patient geometry variation during treatment may significantly compromise the conformality of delivered dose and must be managed properly. Setup error and interfraction/intrafraction motion are incorporated in the target definition process by expanding the clinical target volume to planning target volume, whereas the alignment between patient and treatment geometry is obtained with an adaptive control process, by taking immediate actions in response to closely monitored patient geometry. This article focuses on the monitoring and adaptive response aspect of the problem. The term "image" in "image guidance" will be used in a most general sense, to be inclusive of some important point-based monitoring systems that can be considered as degenerate cases of imaging. Image-guided motion adaptive control, as a comprehensive system, involves a hierarchy of decisions, each of which balances simplicity versus flexibility and accuracy versus robustness. Patient specifics and machine specifics at the treatment facility also need to be incorporated into the decision-making process. Identifying operation bottlenecks from a system perspective and making informed compromises are crucial in the proper selection of image-guidance modality, the motion management mechanism, and the respective operation modes. Not intended as an exhaustive exposition, this article focuses on discussing the major issues and development principles for image-guided motion management systems. We hope these information and methodologies will facilitate conscientious practitioners to adopt image-guided motion management systems accounting for patient and institute specifics and to embrace advances in knowledge and new technologies subsequent to the publication of this article.

Biobehavioral Insights into Adaptive Behavior in Complex and Dynamic Operational Settings: Lessons learned from the Soldier Performance and Effective, Adaptable Response Task

PubMed Central

Haufler, Amy J.; Lewis, Gregory F.; Davila, Maria I.; Westhelle, Felipe; Gavrilis, James; Bryce, Crystal I.; Kolacz, Jacek; Granger, Douglas A.; McDaniel, William

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the biobehavioral correlates of adaptive behavior in the context of a standardized laboratory-based mission-relevant challenge [the Soldier Performance and Effective, Adaptable Response (SPEAR) task]. Participants were 26 healthy male volunteers (M = 34.85 years, SD = 4.12) with active military duty and leadership experience within the last 5 years (i.e., multiple leadership positions, operational deployments in combat, interactions with civilians and partner nation forces on the battlefield, experience making decisions under fire). The SPEAR task simultaneously engages perception, cognition, and action aspects of human performance demands similar to those encountered in the operational setting. Participants must engage with military-relevant text, visual, and auditory stimuli, interpret new information, and retain the commander’s intent in working memory to create a new plan of action for mission success. Time-domain measures of heart period and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) were quantified, and saliva was sampled [later assayed for cortisol and alpha-amylase (sAA)] before-, during-, and post-SPEAR. Results revealed a predictable pattern of withdraw and recovery of the cardiac vagal tone during repeated presentation of battlefield challenges. Recovery of vagal inhibition following executive function challenge was strongly linked to better task-related performance. Rate of RSA recovery was also associated with better recall of the commander’s intent. Decreasing magnitude in the skin conductance response prior to the task was positively associated with better overall task-related performance. Lower levels of RSA were observed in participants who reported higher rates of combat deployments, and reduced RSA flexibility was associated with higher rates of casualty exposure. Greater RSA flexibility during SPEAR was associated with greater self-reported resilience. There was no consistent pattern of task-related change in cortisol or sAA. We conclude that individual differences in psychophysiological reactivity and regulation in response to an ecologically valid, military-relevant task are associated with performance-related adaptive behavior in this standardized operational setting. The implications for modern day warfare, where advancing our understanding of the nature of individual differences in adaptive problem solving is critical to mission success, fitness for duty, and other occupational health-related outcomes, are discussed. PMID:29459893

Biobehavioral Insights into Adaptive Behavior in Complex and Dynamic Operational Settings: Lessons learned from the Soldier Performance and Effective, Adaptable Response Task.

PubMed

Haufler, Amy J; Lewis, Gregory F; Davila, Maria I; Westhelle, Felipe; Gavrilis, James; Bryce, Crystal I; Kolacz, Jacek; Granger, Douglas A; McDaniel, William

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the biobehavioral correlates of adaptive behavior in the context of a standardized laboratory-based mission-relevant challenge [the Soldier Performance and Effective, Adaptable Response (SPEAR) task]. Participants were 26 healthy male volunteers (M = 34.85 years, SD = 4.12) with active military duty and leadership experience within the last 5 years (i.e., multiple leadership positions, operational deployments in combat, interactions with civilians and partner nation forces on the battlefield, experience making decisions under fire). The SPEAR task simultaneously engages perception, cognition, and action aspects of human performance demands similar to those encountered in the operational setting. Participants must engage with military-relevant text, visual, and auditory stimuli, interpret new information, and retain the commander's intent in working memory to create a new plan of action for mission success. Time-domain measures of heart period and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) were quantified, and saliva was sampled [later assayed for cortisol and alpha-amylase (sAA)] before-, during-, and post-SPEAR. Results revealed a predictable pattern of withdraw and recovery of the cardiac vagal tone during repeated presentation of battlefield challenges. Recovery of vagal inhibition following executive function challenge was strongly linked to better task-related performance. Rate of RSA recovery was also associated with better recall of the commander's intent. Decreasing magnitude in the skin conductance response prior to the task was positively associated with better overall task-related performance. Lower levels of RSA were observed in participants who reported higher rates of combat deployments, and reduced RSA flexibility was associated with higher rates of casualty exposure. Greater RSA flexibility during SPEAR was associated with greater self-reported resilience. There was no consistent pattern of task-related change in cortisol or sAA. We conclude that individual differences in psychophysiological reactivity and regulation in response to an ecologically valid, military-relevant task are associated with performance-related adaptive behavior in this standardized operational setting. The implications for modern day warfare, where advancing our understanding of the nature of individual differences in adaptive problem solving is critical to mission success, fitness for duty, and other occupational health-related outcomes, are discussed.

Adaptive fiber optics collimator based on flexible hinges.

PubMed

Zhi, Dong; Ma, Yanxing; Ma, Pengfei; Si, Lei; Wang, Xiaolin; Zhou, Pu

2014-08-20

In this manuscript, we present a new design for an adaptive fiber optics collimator (AFOC) based on flexible hinges by using piezoelectric stacks actuators for X-Y displacement. Different from traditional AFOC, the new structure is based on flexible hinges to drive the fiber end cap instead of naked fiber. We fabricated a real AFOC based on flexible hinges, and the end cap's deviation and resonance frequency of the device were measured. Experimental results show that this new AFOC can provide fast control of tip-tilt deviation of the laser beam emitting from the end cap. As a result, the fiber end cap can support much higher power than naked fiber, which makes the new structure ideal for tip-tilt controlling in a high-power fiber laser system.

How performance-contingent reward prospect modulates cognitive control: Increased cue maintenance at the cost of decreased flexibility.

PubMed

Hefer, Carmen; Dreisbach, Gesine

2017-10-01

Growing evidence suggests that reward prospect promotes cognitive stability in terms of increased context or cue maintenance. In 3 Experiments, using different versions of the AX-continuous performance task, we investigated whether this reward effect comes at the cost of decreased cognitive flexibility. Experiment 1 shows that the reward induced increase of cue maintenance perseverates even when reward is no longer available. Experiment 2 shows that this reward effect not only survives the withdrawal of reward but also delays the adaptation to changed task conditions that make cue usage maladaptive. And finally in Experiment 3, it is shown that this reduced flexibility to adapt is observed in a more demanding modified version of the AX-continuous performance task and is even stronger under conditions of sustained reward. Taken together, all 3 Experiments thus speak to the idea that the prospect of reward increases cue maintenance and thereby cognitive stability. This increased cognitive stability however comes at the cost of decreased flexibility in terms of delayed adaptation to new reward and task conditions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

All-in-One Shape-Adaptive Self-Charging Power Package for Wearable Electronics.

PubMed

Guo, Hengyu; Yeh, Min-Hsin; Lai, Ying-Chih; Zi, Yunlong; Wu, Changsheng; Wen, Zhen; Hu, Chenguo; Wang, Zhong Lin

2016-11-22

Recently, a self-charging power unit consisting of an energy harvesting device and an energy storage device set the foundation for building a self-powered wearable system. However, the flexibility of the power unit working under extremely complex deformations (e.g., stretching, twisting, and bending) becomes a key issue. Here, we present a prototype of an all-in-one shape-adaptive self-charging power unit that can be used for scavenging random body motion energy under complex mechanical deformations and then directly storing it in a supercapacitor unit to build up a self-powered system for wearable electronics. A kirigami paper based supercapacitor (KP-SC) was designed to work as the flexible energy storage device (stretchability up to 215%). An ultrastretchable and shape-adaptive silicone rubber triboelectric nanogenerator (SR-TENG) was utilized as the flexible energy harvesting device. By combining them with a rectifier, a stretchable, twistable, and bendable, self-charging power package was achieved for sustainably driving wearable electronics. This work provides a potential platform for the flexible self-powered systems.

High speed, precision motion strategies for lightweight structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Book, Wayne J.

1989-01-01

Research on space telerobotics is summarized. Adaptive control experiments on the Robotic Arm, Large and Flexible (RALF) were preformed and are documented, along with a joint controller design for the Small Articulated Manipulator (SAM), which is mounted on the RALF. A control algorithm is described as a robust decentralized adaptive control based on a bounded uncertainty approach. Dynamic interactions between SAM and RALF are examined. Unstability of the manipulator is studied from the perspective that the inertial forces generated could actually be used to more rapidly damp out the flexible manipulator's vibration. Currently being studied is the modeling of the constrained dynamics of flexible arms.

Behavioral training promotes multiple adaptive processes following acute hearing loss.

PubMed

Keating, Peter; Rosenior-Patten, Onayomi; Dahmen, Johannes C; Bell, Olivia; King, Andrew J

2016-03-23

The brain possesses a remarkable capacity to compensate for changes in inputs resulting from a range of sensory impairments. Developmental studies of sound localization have shown that adaptation to asymmetric hearing loss can be achieved either by reinterpreting altered spatial cues or by relying more on those cues that remain intact. Adaptation to monaural deprivation in adulthood is also possible, but appears to lack such flexibility. Here we show, however, that appropriate behavioral training enables monaurally-deprived adult humans to exploit both of these adaptive processes. Moreover, cortical recordings in ferrets reared with asymmetric hearing loss suggest that these forms of plasticity have distinct neural substrates. An ability to adapt to asymmetric hearing loss using multiple adaptive processes is therefore shared by different species and may persist throughout the lifespan. This highlights the fundamental flexibility of neural systems, and may also point toward novel therapeutic strategies for treating sensory disorders.

Experimental study of adaptive pointing and tracking for large flexible space structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boussalis, D.; Bayard, D. S.; Ih, C.; Wang, S. J.; Ahmed, A.

1991-01-01

This paper describes an experimental study of adaptive pointing and tracking control for flexible spacecraft conducted on a complex ground experiment facility. The algorithm used in this study is based on a multivariable direct model reference adaptive control law. Several experimental validation studies were performed earlier using this algorithm for vibration damping and robust regulation, with excellent results. The current work extends previous studies by addressing the pointing and tracking problem. As is consistent with an adaptive control framework, the plant is assumed to be poorly known to the extent that only system level knowledge of its dynamics is available. Explicit bounds on the steady-state pointing error are derived as functions of the adaptive controller design parameters. It is shown that good tracking performance can be achieved in an experimental setting by adjusting adaptive controller design weightings according to the guidelines indicated by the analytical expressions for the error.

Dynamic Network Selection for Multicast Services in Wireless Cooperative Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang; Jin, Le; He, Feng; Cheng, Hanwen; Wu, Lenan

In next generation mobile multimedia communications, different wireless access networks are expected to cooperate. However, it is a challenging task to choose an optimal transmission path in this scenario. This paper focuses on the problem of selecting the optimal access network for multicast services in the cooperative mobile and broadcasting networks. An algorithm is proposed, which considers multiple decision factors and multiple optimization objectives. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is applied to schedule the service queue and an artificial neural network (ANN) is used to improve the flexibility of the algorithm. Simulation results show that by applying the AHP method, a group of weight ratios can be obtained to improve the performance of multiple objectives. And ANN method is effective to adaptively adjust weight ratios when users' new waiting threshold is generated.

Context Aware Programmable Trackers for the Next Generation Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro

This work introduces and proposes the concept of context aware programmable trackers for the next generation Internet. The proposed solution gives ground for the development of advanced applications based on the P2P paradigm and will foster collaborative efforts among several network entities (e.g. P2P applications and ISPs). The proposed concept of context aware programmable trackers allows that several peer selection strategies might be supported by a P2P tracker entity able to improve the peer selection decisions according with pre-defined objectives and external inputs provided by specific services. The flexible, adaptive and enhanced peer selection semantics that might be achieved by the proposed solution will contribute for devising novel P2P based services and business models for the future Internet.

Definition of information technology architectures for continuous data management and medical device integration in diabetes.

PubMed

Hernando, M Elena; Pascual, Mario; Salvador, Carlos H; García-Sáez, Gema; Rodríguez-Herrero, Agustín; Martínez-Sarriegui, Iñaki; Gómez, Enrique J

2008-09-01

The growing availability of continuous data from medical devices in diabetes management makes it crucial to define novel information technology architectures for efficient data storage, data transmission, and data visualization. The new paradigm of care demands the sharing of information in interoperable systems as the only way to support patient care in a continuum of care scenario. The technological platforms should support all the services required by the actors involved in the care process, located in different scenarios and managing diverse information for different purposes. This article presents basic criteria for defining flexible and adaptive architectures that are capable of interoperating with external systems, and integrating medical devices and decision support tools to extract all the relevant knowledge to support diabetes care.

Social Simulation for AmI Systems Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Valverde, Teresa; Serrano, Emilio; Botia, Juan A.

This paper propose the use of multi-agent based simulation (MABS) to allow testing, validating and verifying Ambient Intelligence (AmI) environments in a flexible and robust way. The development of AmI is very complex because of this technology must often adapt to contextual information as well as unpredictable and changeable behaviours. The concrete simulation is called Ubik and is integrated into the AmISim architecture which is also presented in this paper. This architecture deals with AmI applications in order to discover defects, estimate quality of applications, help to make decisions about the design, etc. The paper shows that Ubik and AmISim provide a simulation framework which can test scenarios that would be impossible in real environments or even with previous AmI simulation approaches.

Executive control deficits in substance-dependent individuals: a comparison of alcohol, cocaine, and methamphetamine and of men and women.

PubMed

van der Plas, Ellen A A; Crone, Eveline A; van den Wildenberg, Wery P M; Tranel, Daniel; Bechara, Antoine

2009-08-01

Substance dependence is associated with executive function deficits, but the nature of these executive defects and the effect that different drugs and sex have on these defects have not been fully clarified. Therefore, we compared the performance of alcohol- (n = 33; 18 women), cocaine- (n = 27; 14 women), and methamphetamine-dependent individuals (n = 38; 25 women) with sex-matched healthy comparisons (n = 36; 17 women) on complex decision making as measured with the Iowa Gambling Task, working memory, cognitive flexibility, and response inhibition. Cocaine- and methamphetamine-dependent individuals were impaired on complex decision making, working memory, and cognitive flexibility, but not on response inhibition. The deficits in working memory and cognitive flexibility were milder than the decision-making deficits and did not change as a function of memory load or task switching. Interestingly, decision making was significantly more impaired in women addicted to cocaine or methamphetamine than in men addicted to these drugs. Together, these findings suggest that drug of choice and sex have different effects on executive functioning, which, if replicated, may help tailor intervention.

Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2012-01-01

This paper extends the uncertainty framework of adaptive management to include uncertainty about the objectives to be used in guiding decisions. Adaptive decision making typically assumes explicit and agreed-upon objectives for management, but allows for uncertainty as to the structure of the decision process that generates change through time. Yet it is not unusual for there to be uncertainty (or disagreement) about objectives, with different stakeholders expressing different views not only about resource responses to management but also about the appropriate management objectives. In this paper I extend the treatment of uncertainty in adaptive management, and describe a stochastic structure for the joint occurrence of uncertainty about objectives as well as models, and show how adaptive decision making and the assessment of post-decision monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties of both kinds. Different degrees of association between model and objective uncertainty lead to different patterns of learning about objectives. ?? 2011.

Adaptive Decision Aiding in Computer-Assisted Instruction: Adaptive Computerized Training System (ACTS).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hopf-Weichel, Rosemarie; And Others

This report describes results of the first year of a three-year program to develop and evaluate a new Adaptive Computerized Training System (ACTS) for electronics maintenance training. (ACTS incorporates an adaptive computer program that learns the student's diagnostic and decision value structure, compares it to that of an expert, and adapts the…

On the adaptive flexibility of evaluative priming.

PubMed

Fiedler, Klaus; Bluemke, Matthias; Unkelbach, Christian

2011-05-01

If priming effects serve an adaptive function, they have to be both robust and flexible. In four experiments, we demonstrated regular evaluative-priming effects for relatively long stimulus-onset asynchronies, which can, however, be eliminated or reversed strategically. When participants responded to both primes and targets, rather than only to targets, the standard congruity effect disappeared. In Experiments 1a-1c, this result was regularly obtained, independently of the prime response (valence or gender classification) and the response mode (pronunciation or keystroke). In Experiment 2, we showed that once the default congruity effect was eliminated, strategic-priming effects reflected the statistical contingency between prime valence and target valence. Positive contingencies produced congruity, whereas negative contingencies produced equally strong incongruity effects. Altogether, these findings are consistent with an adaptive-cognitive perspective, which highlights the role of flexible strategic processes in working memory as opposed to fixed structures in semantic long-term memory or in the sensorimotor system.

Large margin nearest neighbor classifiers.

PubMed

Domeniconi, Carlotta; Gunopulos, Dimitrios; Peng, Jing

2005-07-01

The nearest neighbor technique is a simple and appealing approach to addressing classification problems. It relies on the assumption of locally constant class conditional probabilities. This assumption becomes invalid in high dimensions with a finite number of examples due to the curse of dimensionality. Severe bias can be introduced under these conditions when using the nearest neighbor rule. The employment of a locally adaptive metric becomes crucial in order to keep class conditional probabilities close to uniform, thereby minimizing the bias of estimates. We propose a technique that computes a locally flexible metric by means of support vector machines (SVMs). The decision function constructed by SVMs is used to determine the most discriminant direction in a neighborhood around the query. Such a direction provides a local feature weighting scheme. We formally show that our method increases the margin in the weighted space where classification takes place. Moreover, our method has the important advantage of online computational efficiency over competing locally adaptive techniques for nearest neighbor classification. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method using both real and simulated data.

Exploring the additive effects of stimulus quality and word frequency: the influence of local and list-wide prime relatedness.

PubMed

Scaltritti, Michele; Balota, David A; Peressotti, Francesca

2013-01-01

Stimulus quality and word frequency produce additive effects in lexical decision performance, whereas the semantic priming effect interacts with both stimulus quality and word frequency effects. This pattern places important constraints on models of visual word recognition. In Experiment 1, all three variables were investigated within a single speeded pronunciation study. The results indicated that the joint effects of stimulus quality and word frequency were dependent upon prime relatedness. In particular, an additive effect of stimulus quality and word frequency was found after related primes, and an interactive effect was found after unrelated primes. It was hypothesized that this pattern reflects an adaptive reliance on related prime information within the experimental context. In Experiment 2, related primes were eliminated from the list, and the interactive effects of stimulus quality and word frequency found following unrelated primes in Experiment 1 reverted to additive effects for the same unrelated prime conditions. The results are supportive of a flexible lexical processor that adapts to both local prime information and global list-wide context.

Economics and planning in the veterinary undergraduate programme: a model for sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Mlangwa, J E; Kisauzi, D N

1993-09-01

Veterinarians in sub-Saharan Africa work in resource-deficient environments. Decisions taken by veterinarians in this sub-region, on animal health, animal husbandry and public health issues, are therefore influenced by economic factors including macro-economic considerations related to the current structural adjustment programmes being implemented in the sub-region. In turn, decisions or advice given by veterinarians have socio-economic consequences on clients, on the effectiveness of the delivery systems for veterinary services and on the growth of national economies. For these reasons, economics and planning should be essential components of all modern veterinary undergraduate programmes in sub-Saharan Africa, in order to give veterinarians a basis for making decisions and giving advice which is both technically and economically sound. The authors argue that principles of livestock economics, livestock enterprise management, livestock investment analysis and economics of animal health care are necessary elements in economics and planning courses. They propose a division of these elements into discrete course units to allow for flexibility and adaptability to the different curriculum structures of schools in sub-Saharan Africa and, possibly, continuing professional development courses. The resource requirement for teaching the courses, the integration of the units in the undergraduate programme and the problems which are likely to be encountered in developing the courses are discussed.

Two-stage seasonal streamflow forecasts to guide water resources decisions and water rights allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, P. J.; Gonzalez, E.; Bonnafous, L.

2011-12-01

Decision-making in water resources is inherently uncertain producing copious risks, ranging from operational (present) to planning (season-ahead) to design/adaptation (decadal) time-scales. These risks include human activity and climate variability/change. As the risks in designing and operating water systems and allocating available supplies vary systematically in time, prospects for predicting and managing such risks become increasingly attractive. Considerable effort has been undertaken to improve seasonal forecast skill and advocate for integration to reduce risk, however only minimal adoption is evident. Impediments are well defined, yet tailoring forecast products and allowing for flexible adoption assist in overcoming some obstacles. The semi-arid Elqui River basin in Chile is contending with increasing levels of water stress and demand coupled with insufficient investment in infrastructure, taxing its ability to meet agriculture, hydropower, and environmental requirements. The basin is fed from a retreating glacier, with allocation principles founded on a system of water rights and markets. A two-stage seasonal streamflow forecast at leads of one and two seasons prescribes the probability of reductions in the value of each water right, allowing water managers to inform their constituents in advance. A tool linking the streamflow forecast to a simple reservoir decision model also allows water managers to select a level of confidence in the forecast information.

Keys to success for data-driven decision making: Lessons from participatory monitoring and collaborative adaptive management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent years have witnessed a call for evidence-based decisions in conservation and natural resource management, including data-driven decision-making. Adaptive management (AM) is one prevalent model for integrating scientific data into decision-making, yet AM has faced numerous challenges and limit...

Active telescope systems; Proceedings of the Meeting, Orlando, FL, Mar. 28-31, 1989

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roddier, Francois J.

1989-09-01

The present conference discusses topics in the fundamental limitations of adaptive optics in astronomical telescopy, integrated telescope systems designs, novel components for adaptive telescopes, active interferometry, flexible-mirror and segmented-mirror telescopes, and various aspects of the NASA Precision Segmented Reflectors Program. Attention is given to near-ground atmospheric turbulence effects, a near-IR astronomical adaptive optics system, a simplified wavefront sensor for adaptive mirror control, excimer laser guide star techniques for adaptive astronomical imaging, active systems in long-baseline interferometry, mirror figure control primitives for a 10-m primary mirror, and closed-loop active optics for large flexible mirrors subject to wind buffet deformations. Also discussed are active pupil geometry control for a phased-array telescope, extremely lightweight space telescope mirrors, segmented-mirror manufacturing tolerances, and composite deformable mirror design.

Adaptive Control of Linear Modal Systems Using Residual Mode Filters and a Simple Disturbance Estimator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balas, Mark; Frost, Susan

2012-01-01

Flexible structures containing a large number of modes can benefit from adaptive control techniques which are well suited to applications that have unknown modeling parameters and poorly known operating conditions. In this paper, we focus on a direct adaptive control approach that has been extended to handle adaptive rejection of persistent disturbances. We extend our adaptive control theory to accommodate troublesome modal subsystems of a plant that might inhibit the adaptive controller. In some cases the plant does not satisfy the requirements of Almost Strict Positive Realness. Instead, there maybe be a modal subsystem that inhibits this property. This section will present new results for our adaptive control theory. We will modify the adaptive controller with a Residual Mode Filter (RMF) to compensate for the troublesome modal subsystem, or the Q modes. Here we present the theory for adaptive controllers modified by RMFs, with attention to the issue of disturbances propagating through the Q modes. We apply the theoretical results to a flexible structure example to illustrate the behavior with and without the residual mode filter.

Workflow-enabled distributed component-based information architecture for digital medical imaging enterprises.

PubMed

Wong, Stephen T C; Tjandra, Donny; Wang, Huili; Shen, Weimin

2003-09-01

Few information systems today offer a flexible means to define and manage the automated part of radiology processes, which provide clinical imaging services for the entire healthcare organization. Even fewer of them provide a coherent architecture that can easily cope with heterogeneity and inevitable local adaptation of applications and can integrate clinical and administrative information to aid better clinical, operational, and business decisions. We describe an innovative enterprise architecture of image information management systems to fill the needs. Such a system is based on the interplay of production workflow management, distributed object computing, Java and Web techniques, and in-depth domain knowledge in radiology operations. Our design adapts the approach of "4+1" architectural view. In this new architecture, PACS and RIS become one while the user interaction can be automated by customized workflow process. Clinical service applications are implemented as active components. They can be reasonably substituted by applications of local adaptations and can be multiplied for fault tolerance and load balancing. Furthermore, the workflow-enabled digital radiology system would provide powerful query and statistical functions for managing resources and improving productivity. This paper will potentially lead to a new direction of image information management. We illustrate the innovative design with examples taken from an implemented system.

A cognitive task analysis of information management strategies in a computerized provider order entry environment.

PubMed

Weir, Charlene R; Nebeker, Jonathan J R; Hicken, Bret L; Campo, Rebecca; Drews, Frank; Lebar, Beth

2007-01-01

Computerized Provider Order Entry (CPOE) with electronic documentation, and computerized decision support dramatically changes the information environment of the practicing clinician. Prior work patterns based on paper, verbal exchange, and manual methods are replaced with automated, computerized, and potentially less flexible systems. The objective of this study is to explore the information management strategies that clinicians use in the process of adapting to a CPOE system using cognitive task analysis techniques. Observation and semi-structured interviews were conducted with 88 primary-care clinicians at 10 Veterans Administration Medical Centers. Interviews were taped, transcribed, and extensively analyzed to identify key information management goals, strategies, and tasks. Tasks were aggregated into groups, common components across tasks were clarified, and underlying goals and strategies identified. Nearly half of the identified tasks were not fully supported by the available technology. Six core components of tasks were identified. Four meta-cognitive information management goals emerged: 1) Relevance Screening; 2) Ensuring Accuracy; 3) Minimizing memory load; and 4) Negotiating Responsibility. Strategies used to support these goals are presented. Users develop a wide array of information management strategies that allow them to successfully adapt to new technology. Supporting the ability of users to develop adaptive strategies to support meta-cognitive goals is a key component of a successful system.

Identifying Key Features, Cutting Edge Cloud Resources, and Artificial Intelligence Tools to Achieve User-Friendly Water Science in the Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, S. A.

2017-12-01

Decision making for groundwater systems is becoming increasingly important, as shifting water demands increasingly impact aquifers. As buffer systems, aquifers provide room for resilient responses and augment the actual timeframe for hydrological response. Yet the pace impacts, climate shifts, and degradation of water resources is accelerating. To meet these new drivers, groundwater science is transitioning toward the emerging field of Integrated Water Resources Management, or IWRM. IWRM incorporates a broad array of dimensions, methods, and tools to address problems that tend to be complex. Computational tools and accessible cyberinfrastructure (CI) are needed to cross the chasm between science and society. Fortunately cloud computing environments, such as the new Jetstream system, are evolving rapidly. While still targeting scientific user groups systems such as, Jetstream, offer configurable cyberinfrastructure to enable interactive computing and data analysis resources on demand. The web-based interfaces allow researchers to rapidly customize virtual machines, modify computing architecture and increase the usability and access for broader audiences to advanced compute environments. The result enables dexterous configurations and opening up opportunities for IWRM modelers to expand the reach of analyses, number of case studies, and quality of engagement with stakeholders and decision makers. The acute need to identify improved IWRM solutions paired with advanced computational resources refocuses the attention of IWRM researchers on applications, workflows, and intelligent systems that are capable of accelerating progress. IWRM must address key drivers of community concern, implement transdisciplinary methodologies, adapt and apply decision support tools in order to effectively support decisions about groundwater resource management. This presentation will provide an overview of advanced computing services in the cloud using integrated groundwater management case studies to highlight how Cloud CI streamlines the process for setting up an interactive decision support system. Moreover, advances in artificial intelligence offer new techniques for old problems from integrating data to adaptive sensing or from interactive dashboards to optimizing multi-attribute problems. The combination of scientific expertise, flexible cloud computing solutions, and intelligent systems opens new research horizons.

Passive and active adaptive management: Approaches and an example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Characterizing Decision-Analysis Performances of Risk Prediction Models Using ADAPT Curves.

PubMed

Lee, Wen-Chung; Wu, Yun-Chun

2016-01-01

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is a widely used index to characterize the performance of diagnostic tests and prediction models. However, the index does not explicitly acknowledge the utilities of risk predictions. Moreover, for most clinical settings, what counts is whether a prediction model can guide therapeutic decisions in a way that improves patient outcomes, rather than to simply update probabilities.Based on decision theory, the authors propose an alternative index, the "average deviation about the probability threshold" (ADAPT).An ADAPT curve (a plot of ADAPT value against the probability threshold) neatly characterizes the decision-analysis performances of a risk prediction model.Several prediction models can be compared for their ADAPT values at a chosen probability threshold, for a range of plausible threshold values, or for the whole ADAPT curves. This should greatly facilitate the selection of diagnostic tests and prediction models.

Trajectory Planning by Preserving Flexibility: Metrics and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni R.; El-Wakil, Tarek; Wing, David J.

2008-01-01

In order to support traffic management functions, such as mitigating traffic complexity, ground and airborne systems may benefit from preserving or optimizing trajectory flexibility. To help support this hypothesis trajectory flexibility metrics have been defined in previous work to represent the trajectory robustness and adaptability to the risk of violating safety and traffic management constraints. In this paper these metrics are instantiated in the case of planning a trajectory with the heading degree of freedom. A metric estimation method is presented based on simplifying assumptions, namely discrete time and heading maneuvers. A case is analyzed to demonstrate the estimation method and its use in trajectory planning in a situation involving meeting a time constraint and avoiding loss of separation with nearby traffic. The case involves comparing path-stretch trajectories, in terms of adaptability and robustness along each, deduced from a map of estimated flexibility metrics over the solution space. The case demonstrated anecdotally that preserving flexibility may result in enhancing certain factors that contribute to traffic complexity, namely reducing proximity and confrontation.

Water2Invest: Global facility for calculating investments needed to bridge the climate-induced water gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straatsma, Menno; Droogers, Peter; Brandsma, Jairus; Buytaert, Wouter; Karssenberg, Derek; Meijer, Karen; van Aalst, Maaike; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

Decision makers responsible for climate change adaptation investments are confronted with large uncertainties regarding future water availability and water demand, as well as the investment cost required to reduce the water gap. Moreover, scientists have worked hard to increase fundamental knowledge on climate change and its impacts (climate services), while practical use of this knowledge is limited due to a lack of tools for decision support under uncertain long term future scenarios (decision services). The Water2Invest project aims are to (i) assess the joint impact of climate change and socioeconomic change on water scarcity, (ii) integrate impact and potential adaptation in one flow, (iii) prioritize adaptation options to counteract water scarcity on their financial, regional socio-economic and environmental implications, and (iv) deliver all this information in an integrated user-friendly web-based service. Global water availability is computed between 2006 and 2100 using the PCR-GLOBWB water resources model at a 6 minute spatial resolution. Climate change scenarios are based on the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that defines four CO2 emission scenarios as representative concentration pathways. Water demand is computed for agriculture, industry, domestic, and environmental requirements based on socio-economic scenarios of increase in population and gross domestic product. Using a linear programming algorithm, water is allocated on a monthly basis over the four sectors. Based on these assessments, the user can evaluate various technological and infrastructural adaptation measures to assess the investments needed to bridge the future water gap. Regional environmental and socioeconomic effects of these investments are evaluated, such as environmental flows or downstream effects. A scheme is developed to evaluate the strategies on robustness and flexibility under climate change and scenario uncertainty, and each measure is linked to possibilities for investment and financing mechanisms. The tool can be used by consultants, water authorities, non-governmental and commercial investors alike to test investment strategies, but could also be used by companies as a vehicle for advertisement water saving or crop water productivity technologies that can be evaluated on their effectiveness on the spot. We show initial results based on a preliminary study on the Middle East and North African region.

2D/3D video content adaptation decision engine based on content classification and user assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Rui; Andrade, M. T.

2017-07-01

Multimedia adaptation depends on several factors, such as the content itself, the consumption device and its characteristics, the transport and access networks and the user. An adaptation decision engine, in order to provide the best possible Quality of Experience to a user, needs to have information about all variables that may influence its decision. For the aforementioned factors, we implement content classification, define device classes, consider limited bandwidth scenarios and categorize user preferences based on a subjective quality evaluation test. The results of these actions generate vital information to pass to the adaptation decision engine so that its operation may provide the indication of the most suitable adaptation to perform that delivers the best possible outcome for the user under the existing constraints.

Understanding London's Water Supply Tradeoffs When Scheduling Interventions Under Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huskova, I.; Matrosov, E. S.; Harou, J. J.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2015-12-01

Water supply planning in many major world cities faces several challenges associated with but not limited to climate change, population growth and insufficient land availability for infrastructure development. Long-term plans to maintain supply-demand balance and ecosystem services require careful consideration of uncertainties associated with future conditions. The current approach for London's water supply planning utilizes least cost optimization of future intervention schedules with limited uncertainty consideration. Recently, the focus of the long-term plans has shifted from solely least cost performance to robustness and resilience of the system. Identifying robust scheduling of interventions requires optimizing over a statistically representative sample of stochastic inputs which may be computationally difficult to achieve. In this study we optimize schedules using an ensemble of plausible scenarios and assess how manipulating that ensemble influences the different Pareto-approximate intervention schedules. We investigate how a major stress event's location in time as well as the optimization problem formulation influence the Pareto-approximate schedules. A bootstrapping method that respects the non-stationary trend of climate change scenarios and ensures the even distribution of the major stress event in the scenario ensemble is proposed. Different bootstrapped hydrological scenario ensembles are assessed using many-objective scenario optimization of London's future water supply and demand intervention scheduling. However, such a "fixed" scheduling of interventions approach does not aim to embed flexibility or adapt effectively as the future unfolds. Alternatively, making decisions based on the observations of occurred conditions could help planners who prefer adaptive planning. We will show how rules to guide the implementation of interventions based on observations may result in more flexible strategies.

Flexible quality of service model for wireless body area sensor networks.

PubMed

Liao, Yangzhe; Leeson, Mark S; Higgins, Matthew D

2016-03-01

Wireless body area sensor networks (WBASNs) are becoming an increasingly significant breakthrough technology for smart healthcare systems, enabling improved clinical decision-making in daily medical care. Recently, radio frequency ultra-wideband technology has developed substantially for physiological signal monitoring due to its advantages such as low-power consumption, high transmission data rate, and miniature antenna size. Applications of future ubiquitous healthcare systems offer the prospect of collecting human vital signs, early detection of abnormal medical conditions, real-time healthcare data transmission and remote telemedicine support. However, due to the technical constraints of sensor batteries, the supply of power is a major bottleneck for healthcare system design. Moreover, medium access control (MAC) needs to support reliable transmission links that allow sensors to transmit data safely and stably. In this Letter, the authors provide a flexible quality of service model for ad hoc networks that can support fast data transmission, adaptive schedule MAC control, and energy efficient ubiquitous WBASN networks. Results show that the proposed multi-hop communication ad hoc network model can balance information packet collisions and power consumption. Additionally, wireless communications link in WBASNs can effectively overcome multi-user interference and offer high transmission data rates for healthcare systems.

Refining Inquiry with Multi-Form Assessment: Formative and summative assessment functions for flexible inquiry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuiker, Steven; Reid Whitaker, J.

2014-04-01

This paper describes the 5E+I/A inquiry model and reports a case study of one curricular enactment by a US fifth-grade classroom. A literature review establishes the model's conceptual adequacy with respect to longstanding research related to both the 5E inquiry model and multiple, incremental innovations of it. As a collective line of research, the review highlights a common emphasis on formative assessment, at times coupled either with differentiated instruction strategies or with activities that target the generalization of learning. The 5E+I/A model contributes a multi-level assessment strategy that balances formative and summative functions of multiple forms of assessment in order to support classroom participation while still attending to individual achievement. The case report documents the enactment of a weeklong 5E+I/A curricular design as a preliminary account of the model's empirical adequacy. A descriptive and analytical narrative illustrates variable ways that multi-level assessment makes student thinking visible and pedagogical decision-making more powerful. In light of both, it also documents productive adaptations to a flexible curricular design and considers future research to advance this collective line of inquiry.

Goal driven kinematic simulation of flexible arm robot for space station missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janssen, P.; Choudry, A.

1987-01-01

Flexible arms offer a great degree of flexibility in maneuvering in the space environment. The problem of transporting an astronaut for extra-vehicular activity using a space station based flexible arm robot was studied. Inverse kinematic solutions of the multilink structure were developed. The technique is goal driven and can support decision making for configuration selection as required for stability and obstacle avoidance. Details of this technique and results are given.

Multisensory integration: flexible use of general operations

PubMed Central

van Atteveldt, Nienke; Murray, Micah M.; Thut, Gregor; Schroeder, Charles

2014-01-01

Research into the anatomical substrates and “principles” for integrating inputs from separate sensory surfaces has yielded divergent findings. This suggests that multisensory integration is flexible and context-dependent, and underlines the need for dynamically adaptive neuronal integration mechanisms. We propose that flexible multisensory integration can be explained by a combination of canonical, population-level integrative operations, such as oscillatory phase-resetting and divisive normalization. These canonical operations subsume multisensory integration into a fundamental set of principles as to how the brain integrates all sorts of information, and they are being used proactively and adaptively. We illustrate this proposition by unifying recent findings from different research themes such as timing, behavioral goal and experience-related differences in integration. PMID:24656248

Analysis of Trajectory Flexibility Preservation Impact on Traffic Complexity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni; El-Wakil, Tarek; Wing, David J.

2009-01-01

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors proposed the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics, namely dynamic density indicators, which indicated that using the flexibility metrics reduced aircraft density and the potential of loss of separation.

Apparatus And Method Of Using Flexible Printed Circuit Board In Optical Transceiver Device

DOEpatents

Anderson, Gene R.; Armendariz, Marcelino G.; Bryan, Robert P.; Carson, Richard F.; Duckett, III, Edwin B.; McCormick, Frederick B.; Peterson, David W.; Peterson, Gary D.; Reysen, Bill H.

2005-03-15

This invention relates to a flexible printed circuit board that is used in connection with an optical transmitter, receiver or transceiver module. In one embodiment, the flexible printed circuit board has flexible metal layers in between flexible insulating layers, and the circuit board comprises: (1) a main body region orientated in a first direction having at least one electrical or optoelectronic device; (2) a plurality of electrical contact pads integrated into the main body region, where the electrical contact pads function to connect the flexible printed circuit board to an external environment; (3) a buckle region extending from one end of the main body region; and (4) a head region extending from one end of the buckle region, and where the head region is orientated so that it is at an angle relative to the direction of the main body region. The electrical contact pads may be ball grid arrays, solder balls or land-grid arrays, and they function to connect the circuit board to an external environment. A driver or amplifier chip may be adapted to the head region of the flexible printed circuit board. In another embodiment, a heat spreader passes along a surface of the head region of the flexible printed circuit board, and a window is formed in the head region of the flexible printed circuit board. Optoelectronic devices are adapted to the head spreader in such a manner that they are accessible through the window in the flexible printed circuit board.

Adaptive Technologies. Research Report. ETS RR-07-05

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shute, Valerie J.; Zapata-Rivera, Diego

2007-01-01

This paper describes research and development efforts related to adaptive technologies, which can be combined with other technologies and processes to form an adaptive system. The goal of an adaptive system, in the context of this paper, is to create an instructionally sound and flexible environment that supports learning for students with a range…

Feedback in Videogame-Based Adaptive Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rivera, Iris Daliz

2010-01-01

The field of training has been changing rapidly due to advances in technology such as videogame-based adaptive training. Videogame-based adaptive training has provided flexibility and adaptability for training in cost-effective ways. Although this method of training may have many benefits for the trainee, current research has not kept up to pace…

Perceptual decision processes flexibly adapt to avoid change-of-mind motor costs

PubMed Central

Moher, Jeff; Song, Joo-Hyun

2014-01-01

The motor system is tightly linked with perception and cognition. Recent studies have shown that even anticipated biophysical action costs associated with competing response options can be incorporated into decision-making processes. As a result, choices associated with high energy costs are less likely to be selected. However, some action costs may be harder to predict. For example, a person choosing among apples at a grocery store may change his or her mind suddenly about which apple to put into the cart. This change of mind may be reflected in motor output as the initial decision triggers a motor response toward a Granny Smith that is subsequently redirected toward a Red Delicious. In the present study, to examine how motor costs associated with changes of mind affect perceptual decision making, participants performed a difficult random dot–motion discrimination task in which they had to indicate the direction of motion by reaching to one of two response options. Although each response box was always equidistant from the starting position, the physical distance between the two response options was varied. We found that when the boxes were far apart from one another, and thus changes of mind incurred greater redirection motor costs, change-of-mind frequency decreased while latency to initiate movement increased. This occurred even when response box distance varied randomly from trial to trial and was cued only 1 s before each trial began. Thus, we demonstrated that observers can dynamically adjust perceptual decision-making processes to avoid high motor costs incurred by a change of mind. PMID:24986186

Mechanisms mediating parallel action monitoring in fronto-striatal circuits.

PubMed

Beste, Christian; Ness, Vanessa; Lukas, Carsten; Hoffmann, Rainer; Stüwe, Sven; Falkenstein, Michael; Saft, Carsten

2012-08-01

Flexible response adaptation and the control of conflicting information play a pivotal role in daily life. Yet, little is known about the neuronal mechanisms mediating parallel control of these processes. We examined these mechanisms using a multi-methodological approach that integrated data from event-related potentials (ERPs) with structural MRI data and source localisation using sLORETA. Moreover, we calculated evoked wavelet oscillations. We applied this multi-methodological approach in healthy subjects and patients in a prodromal phase of a major basal ganglia disorder (i.e., Huntington's disease), to directly focus on fronto-striatal networks. Behavioural data indicated, especially the parallel execution of conflict monitoring and flexible response adaptation was modulated across the examined cohorts. When both processes do not co-incide a high integrity of fronto-striatal loops seems to be dispensable. The neurophysiological data suggests that conflict monitoring (reflected by the N2 ERP) and working memory processes (reflected by the P3 ERP) differentially contribute to this pattern of results. Flexible response adaptation under the constraint of high conflict processing affected the N2 and P3 ERP, as well as their delta frequency band oscillations. Yet, modulatory effects were strongest for the N2 ERP and evoked wavelet oscillations in this time range. The N2 ERPs were localized in the anterior cingulate cortex (BA32, BA24). Modulations of the P3 ERP were localized in parietal areas (BA7). In addition, MRI-determined caudate head volume predicted modulations in conflict monitoring, but not working memory processes. The results show how parallel conflict monitoring and flexible adaptation of action is mediated via fronto-striatal networks. While both, response monitoring and working memory processes seem to play a role, especially response selection processes and ACC-basal ganglia networks seem to be the driving force in mediating parallel conflict monitoring and flexible adaptation of actions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The conceptual foundation of environmental decision support.

PubMed

Reichert, Peter; Langhans, Simone D; Lienert, Judit; Schuwirth, Nele

2015-05-01

Environmental decision support intends to use the best available scientific knowledge to help decision makers find and evaluate management alternatives. The goal of this process is to achieve the best fulfillment of societal objectives. This requires a careful analysis of (i) how scientific knowledge can be represented and quantified, (ii) how societal preferences can be described and elicited, and (iii) how these concepts can best be used to support communication with authorities, politicians, and the public in environmental management. The goal of this paper is to discuss key requirements for a conceptual framework to address these issues and to suggest how these can best be met. We argue that a combination of probability theory and scenario planning with multi-attribute utility theory fulfills these requirements, and discuss adaptations and extensions of these theories to improve their application for supporting environmental decision making. With respect to (i) we suggest the use of intersubjective probabilities, if required extended to imprecise probabilities, to describe the current state of scientific knowledge. To address (ii), we emphasize the importance of value functions, in addition to utilities, to support decisions under risk. We discuss the need for testing "non-standard" value aggregation techniques, the usefulness of flexibility of value functions regarding attribute data availability, the elicitation of value functions for sub-objectives from experts, and the consideration of uncertainty in value and utility elicitation. With respect to (iii), we outline a well-structured procedure for transparent environmental decision support that is based on a clear separation of scientific prediction and societal valuation. We illustrate aspects of the suggested methodology by its application to river management in general and with a small, didactical case study on spatial river rehabilitation prioritization. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool (CAMDT) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ines, A. V. M.; Han, E.; Baethgen, W.

2017-12-01

Advances in seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) during the past decades have brought great potential to improve agricultural climate risk managements associated with inter-annual climate variability. In spite of popular uses of crop simulation models in addressing climate risk problems, the models cannot readily take seasonal climate predictions issued in the format of tercile probabilities of most likely rainfall categories (i.e, below-, near- and above-normal). When a skillful SCF is linked with the crop simulation models, the informative climate information can be further translated into actionable agronomic terms and thus better support strategic and tactical decisions. In other words, crop modeling connected with a given SCF allows to simulate "what-if" scenarios with different crop choices or management practices and better inform the decision makers. In this paper, we present a decision support tool, called CAMDT (Climate Agriculture Modeling and Decision Tool), which seamlessly integrates probabilistic SCFs to DSSAT-CSM-Rice model to guide decision-makers in adopting appropriate crop and agricultural water management practices for given climatic conditions. The CAMDT has a functionality to disaggregate a probabilistic SCF into daily weather realizations (either a parametric or non-parametric disaggregation method) and to run DSSAT-CSM-Rice with the disaggregated weather realizations. The convenient graphical user-interface allows easy implementation of several "what-if" scenarios for non-technical users and visualize the results of the scenario runs. In addition, the CAMDT also translates crop model outputs to economic terms once the user provides expected crop price and cost. The CAMDT is a practical tool for real-world applications, specifically for agricultural climate risk management in the Bicol region, Philippines, having a great flexibility for being adapted to other crops or regions in the world. CAMDT GitHub: https://github.com/Agro-Climate/CAMDT

The left inferior frontal gyrus is involved in adjusting response bias during a perceptual decision-making task.

PubMed

Reckless, Greg E; Ousdal, Olga T; Server, Andres; Walter, Henrik; Andreassen, Ole A; Jensen, Jimmy

2014-05-01

Changing the way we make decisions from one environment to another allows us to maintain optimal decision-making. One way decision-making may change is how biased one is toward one option or another. Identifying the regions of the brain that underlie the change in bias will allow for a better understanding of flexible decision-making. An event-related, perceptual decision-making task where participants had to detect a picture of an animal amongst distractors was used during functional magnetic resonance imaging. Positive and negative financial motivation were used to affect a change in response bias, and changes in decision-making behavior were quantified using signal detection theory. Response bias became relatively more liberal during both positive and negative motivated trials compared to neutral trials. For both motivational conditions, the larger the liberal shift in bias, the greater the left inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) activity. There was no relationship between individuals' belief that they used a different strategy and their actual change in response bias. The present findings suggest that the left IFG plays a role in adjusting response bias across different decision environments. This suggests a potential role for the left IFG in flexible decision-making.

Adaptive dynamic surface control of flexible-joint robots using self-recurrent wavelet neural networks.

PubMed

Yoo, Sung Jin; Park, Jin Bae; Choi, Yoon Ho

2006-12-01

A new method for the robust control of flexible-joint (FJ) robots with model uncertainties in both robot dynamics and actuator dynamics is proposed. The proposed control system is a combination of the adaptive dynamic surface control (DSC) technique and the self-recurrent wavelet neural network (SRWNN). The adaptive DSC technique provides the ability to overcome the "explosion of complexity" problem in backstepping controllers. The SRWNNs are used to observe the arbitrary model uncertainties of FJ robots, and all their weights are trained online. From the Lyapunov stability analysis, their adaptation laws are induced, and the uniformly ultimately boundedness of all signals in a closed-loop adaptive system is proved. Finally, simulation results for a three-link FJ robot are utilized to validate the good position tracking performance and robustness against payload uncertainties and external disturbances of the proposed control system.

Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

PubMed

Heller, Stephen

2006-03-17

Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new information into our assessments. MCDM techniques offer flexibility in accessing comparison within broad data sets to reflect our best estimation of their importance towards contribution to the risk picture. This allows for the accurate determination of the more probable and more consequential issues. This can later be refined using more intensive risk techniques and the avoidance of less critical issues.

Good decision-making is associated with an adaptive cardiovascular response to social competitive stress.

PubMed

Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Costa, Raquel; Abad-Tortosa, Diana; Salvador, Alicia; Serrano, Miguel Ángel

2018-06-22

Competition elicits different psychological and cardiovascular responses depending on a person's skills. Decision-making has been considered a distal factor that influences competition, but there are no studies analyzing this relationship. Our objective was to analyze whether decision-making affects the response to competition. Specifically, we aimed to test whether good performers on a decision-making test, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), showed an adaptive cardiovascular response to competition. In all, 116 participants (44 women) performed the IGT and were classified into Good or Poor decision-makers. Subsequently, they were exposed to a stress task in two different conditions: a face-to-face competition (winners/losers) or a control condition, while an electrocardiogram was recorded. In the competition group, good decision-makers increased their high-frequency respect to the total heart rate variability (HF/HRV) levels during the task, compared to Poor decision-makers. Again, competition group good decision-makers, showed lower LF and higher HF/HRV reactivity than the control group, which represents lower HRV stress pattern. Moreover, in the group of losers, good decision-makers had a decline in low frequency (LF) during the task and faster recovery than poor decision-makers. In conclusion, good decision-makers have a more adaptive stress response and higher levels of mental effort, based on total HRV interpretation. Decision-making skills could be a factor in a more adaptive cardiovascular response to competition.

Decision Making under the Adamha Block Grant: Four Case Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hudson, Christopher G.; Dubey, Sumati N.

1986-01-01

Investigated whether block grants improve decision making through the decentralization of control of social programs to state governments. Found that department bureaucrats have sought to protect the new flexibility from encroachment by elected officials through the rationalization and systematization of decision-making procedures. (Author/ABB)

Flexible High Speed Codec (FHSC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segallis, G. P.; Wernlund, J. V.

1991-01-01

The ongoing NASA/Harris Flexible High Speed Codec (FHSC) program is described. The program objectives are to design and build an encoder decoder that allows operation in either burst or continuous modes at data rates of up to 300 megabits per second. The decoder handles both hard and soft decision decoding and can switch between modes on a burst by burst basis. Bandspreading is low since the code rate is greater than or equal to 7/8. The encoder and a hard decision decoder fit on a single application specific integrated circuit (ASIC) chip. A soft decision applique is implemented using 300 K emitter coupled logic (ECL) which can be easily translated to an ECL gate array.

A flexible, stretchable and shape-adaptive approach for versatile energy conversion and self-powered biomedical monitoring.

PubMed

Yang, Po-Kang; Lin, Long; Yi, Fang; Li, Xiuhan; Pradel, Ken C; Zi, Yunlong; Wu, Chih-I; He, Jr-Hau; Zhang, Yue; Wang, Zhong Lin

2015-07-01

A flexible triboelectric nanogenerator (FTENG) based on wavy-structured Kapton film and a serpentine electrode on stretchable substrates is presented. The as-fabricated FTENG is capable of harvesting ambient mechanical energy via both compressive and stretching modes. Moreover, the FTENG can be a bendable power source to work on curved surfaces; it can also be adaptively attached onto human skin for monitoring gentle body motions. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Decision-making tool for applying adaptive traffic control systems : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-03-01

Adaptive traffic signal control technologies have been increasingly deployed in real world situations. The objective of this project was to develop a decision-making tool to guide traffic engineers and decision-makers who must decide whether or not a...

Global Change adaptation in water resources management: the Water Change project.

PubMed

Pouget, Laurent; Escaler, Isabel; Guiu, Roger; Mc Ennis, Suzy; Versini, Pierre-Antoine

2012-12-01

In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as changes in climate, water demand or land use, which can be grouped under the term Global Change. The Water Change project (LIFE+ funding) developed a methodology and a tool to assess the Global Change impacts on water resources, thus helping river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. The main result of the project was the creation of a step by step methodology to assess Global Change impacts and define strategies of adaptation. This methodology was tested in the Llobregat river basin (Spain) with the objective of being applicable to any water system. It includes several steps such as setting-up the problem with a DPSIR framework, developing Global Change scenarios, running river basin models and performing a cost-benefit analysis to define optimal strategies of adaptation. This methodology was supported by the creation of a flexible modelling system, which can link a wide range of models, such as hydrological, water quality, and water management models. The tool allows users to integrate their own models to the system, which can then exchange information among them automatically. This enables to simulate the interactions among multiple components of the water cycle, and run quickly a large number of Global Change scenarios. The outcomes of this project make possible to define and test different sets of adaptation measures for the basin that can be further evaluated through cost-benefit analysis. The integration of the results contributes to an efficient decision-making on how to adapt to Global Change impacts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Remediation management of complex sites using an adaptive site management approach.

PubMed

Price, John; Spreng, Carl; Hawley, Elisabeth L; Deeb, Rula

2017-12-15

Complex sites require a disproportionate amount of resources for environmental remediation and long timeframes to achieve remediation objectives, due to their complex geologic conditions, hydrogeologic conditions, geochemical conditions, contaminant-related conditions, large scale of contamination, and/or non-technical challenges. A recent team of state and federal environmental regulators, federal agency representatives, industry experts, community stakeholders, and academia worked together as an Interstate Technology & Regulatory Council (ITRC) team to compile resources and create new guidance on the remediation management of complex sites. This article summarizes the ITRC team's recommended process for addressing complex sites through an adaptive site management approach. The team provided guidance for site managers and other stakeholders to evaluate site complexities and determine site remediation potential, i.e., whether an adaptive site management approach is warranted. Adaptive site management was described as a comprehensive, flexible approach to iteratively evaluate and adjust the remedial strategy in response to remedy performance. Key aspects of adaptive site management were described, including tools for revising and updating the conceptual site model (CSM), the importance of setting interim objectives to define short-term milestones on the journey to achieving site objectives, establishing a performance model and metrics to evaluate progress towards meeting interim objectives, and comparing actual with predicted progress during scheduled periodic evaluations, and establishing decision criteria for when and how to adapt/modify/revise the remedial strategy in response to remedy performance. Key findings will be published in an ITRC Technical and Regulatory guidance document in 2017 and free training webinars will be conducted. More information is available at www.itrc-web.org. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-07-31

information processing capabilities of a decision maker, given any " reasonable " time limit for making the decision. If use of a more normative rule...DECISION MAKING JOHN W. PAYNE DTIC DUKE UNIVERSITY L.CT E AUG 13 JAMES R. BETTMAN DUKE. UNIVERSITY ERIC J. JOHNSON CARNEGIE-MELLON UNIVERSITY...REPORT & PERIOD COVERED ADAPTIVE STRATEGY SELECTION IN DECISION MAKING Research 6. PERFORMING ORO. REPORT NUMSER 7. AUTNORfe) e. CONTRACT ON GRANT

Reflections on the Adaptive Designs Accelerating Promising Trials Into Treatments (ADAPT-IT) Process—Findings from a Qualitative Study

PubMed Central

Guetterman, Timothy C.; Fetters, Michael D.; Legocki, Laurie J.; Mawocha, Samkeliso; Barsan, William G.; Lewis, Roger J.; Berry, Donald A.; Meurer, William J.

2015-01-01

Context The context for this study was the Adaptive Designs Advancing Promising Treatments Into Trials (ADAPT-IT) project, which aimed to incorporate flexible adaptive designs into pivotal clinical trials and to conduct an assessment of the trial development process. Little research provides guidance to academic institutions in planning adaptive trials. Objectives The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore the perspectives and experiences of stakeholders as they reflected back about the interactive ADAPT-IT adaptive design development process, and to understand their perspectives regarding lessons learned about the design of the trials and trial development. Materials and methods We conducted semi-structured interviews with ten key stakeholders and observations of the process. We employed qualitative thematic text data analysis to reduce the data into themes about the ADAPT-IT project and adaptive clinical trials. Results The qualitative analysis revealed four themes: education of the project participants, how the process evolved with participant feedback, procedures that could enhance the development of other trials, and education of the broader research community. Discussion and conclusions While participants became more likely to consider flexible adaptive designs, additional education is needed to both understand the adaptive methodology and articulate it when planning trials. PMID:26622163

Social support, flexible resources, and health care navigation.

PubMed

Gage-Bouchard, Elizabeth A

2017-10-01

Recent research has focused attention on the role of patients' and clinicians' cultural skills and values in generating inequalities in health care experiences. Yet, examination of how social structural factors shape people's abilities to build, refine, and leverage strategies for navigating the health care system have received less attention. In this paper I place focus on one such social structural factor, social support, and examine how social support operates as a flexible resource that helps people navigate the health care system. Using the case of families navigating pediatric cancer care this study combines in-depth interviews with parents of pediatric cancer patients (N = 80), direct observation of clinical interactions between families and physicians (N = 73), and in-depth interviews with pediatric oncologists (N = 8). Findings show that physicians assess parental visibility in the hospital, medical vigilance, and adherence to their child's treatment and use these judgments to shape clinical decision-making. Parents who had help from their personal networks had more agility in balancing competing demands, and this allowed parents to more effectively meet institutional expectations for appropriate parental involvement in the child's health care. In this way, social support served as a flexible resource for some families that allowed parents to more quickly adapt to the demands of caring for a child with cancer, foster productive interpersonal relationships with health care providers, and play a more active role in their child's health care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coteur, Ine, E-mail: ine.coteur@ilvo.vlaanderen.be; Marchand, Fleur; University of Antwerp, Ecosystem Management Research Group and IMDO, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk

Responding to future challenges and societal needs, various actions are taken in agriculture to evolve towards more sustainable farming practices. These actions imply strategic choices and suppose adequate sustainability assessments to identify, measure, evaluate and communicate sustainable development. However, literature is scarce on the link between strategic decision making and sustainability assessment. As questions emerge on how, what and when to measure, the objective of this paper is to construct a framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making. Qualitative research on own experiences from the past and a recent project revealed four categories of actual needs farmers,more » advisors and experts have regarding sustainability assessment: context, flexibility, focus on farm and farmer and communication. These stakeholders' needs are then incorporated into a two-dimensional framework that marries the intrinsic complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making. The framework allows a farm-specific and flexible approach leading to harmonized actions towards sustainable farming. As this framework is mainly a procedural instrument to guide the use of sustainability assessment tools within strategic decision making, it fits to incorporate, even guide, future research on sustainability assessment tools themselves and on their adoption on farms. - Highlights: • How to link sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making is unclear. • Two-dimensional framework incorporating stakeholders' needs regarding sustainability assessment • Linking complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making • Farm-specific and flexible approach to harmonize action towards sustainable farming.« less

Sensor fusion V; Proceedings of the Meeting, Boston, MA, Nov. 15-17, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schenker, Paul S. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Topics addressed include 3D object perception, human-machine interface in multisensor systems, sensor fusion architecture, fusion of multiple and distributed sensors, interface and decision models for sensor fusion, computational networks, simple sensing for complex action, multisensor-based control, and metrology and calibration of multisensor systems. Particular attention is given to controlling 3D objects by sketching 2D views, the graphical simulation and animation environment for flexible structure robots, designing robotic systems from sensorimotor modules, cylindrical object reconstruction from a sequence of images, an accurate estimation of surface properties by integrating information using Bayesian networks, an adaptive fusion model for a distributed detection system, multiple concurrent object descriptions in support of autonomous navigation, robot control with multiple sensors and heuristic knowledge, and optical array detectors for image sensors calibration. (No individual items are abstracted in this volume)

Experimental demonstration of the control of flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaechter, D. B.; Eldred, D. B.

1984-01-01

The Large Space Structure Technology Flexible Beam Experiment employs a pinned-free flexible beam to demonstrate such required methods as dynamic and adaptive control, as well as various control law design approaches and hardware requirements. An attempt is made to define the mechanization difficulties that may inhere in flexible structures. Attention is presently given to analytical work performed in support of the test facility's development, the final design's specifications, the control laws' synthesis, and experimental results obtained.

What is adaptive about adaptive decision making? A parallel constraint satisfaction account.

PubMed

Glöckner, Andreas; Hilbig, Benjamin E; Jekel, Marc

2014-12-01

There is broad consensus that human cognition is adaptive. However, the vital question of how exactly this adaptivity is achieved has remained largely open. Herein, we contrast two frameworks which account for adaptive decision making, namely broad and general single-mechanism accounts vs. multi-strategy accounts. We propose and fully specify a single-mechanism model for decision making based on parallel constraint satisfaction processes (PCS-DM) and contrast it theoretically and empirically against a multi-strategy account. To achieve sufficiently sensitive tests, we rely on a multiple-measure methodology including choice, reaction time, and confidence data as well as eye-tracking. Results show that manipulating the environmental structure produces clear adaptive shifts in choice patterns - as both frameworks would predict. However, results on the process level (reaction time, confidence), in information acquisition (eye-tracking), and from cross-predicting choice consistently corroborate single-mechanisms accounts in general, and the proposed parallel constraint satisfaction model for decision making in particular. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adapting Institutions to the Adult Learner: Experiments in Progress. Current Issues in Higher Education, 1978 National Conference Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loring, Rosalind K.; And Others

The four conference papers presented here examine specific strategies and programs by which colleges and universities can design and adapt programs for adult students. In "Strategies of Adaptation" Rosalind K. Loring notes six major types of adaptation to which traditional, four-year schools have resorted (flexible schedules, simulated…

Acetylcholine Activity in Selective Striatal Regions Supports Behavioral Flexibility

PubMed Central

Ragozzino, Michael E.; Mohler, Eric G.; Prior, Margaret; Palencia, Carlos A.; Rozman, Suzanne

2009-01-01

Daily living often requires individuals to flexibly respond to new circumstances. There is considerable evidence that the striatum is part of a larger neural network that supports flexible adaptations. Cholinergic interneurons are situated to strongly influence striatal output patterns which may enable flexible adaptations. The present experiments investigated whether acetylcholine actions in different striatal regions support behavioral flexibility by measuring acetylcholine efflux during place reversal learning. Acetylcholine efflux selectively increased in the dorsomedial striatum, but not dorsolateral or ventromedial striatum during place reversal learning. In order to modulate the M2-class of autoreceptors, administration of oxotremorine sesquifumurate (100 nM) into the dorsomedial striatum, concomitantly impaired reversal learning and an increase in acetylcholine output. These effects were reversed by the m2 muscarinic receptor antagonist, AF-DX-116 (20 nM). The effects of oxotremorine sesquifumurate and AF-DX-116 on acetylcholine efflux were selective to behaviorally-induced changes as neither treatment affected acetylcholine output in a resting condition. In contrast to reversal learning, acetylcholine efflux in the dorsomedial striatum did not change during place acquisition. The results reveal an essential role for cholinergic activity and define its locus of control to the dorsomedial striatum in cognitive flexibility. PMID:18845266

Acetylcholine activity in selective striatal regions supports behavioral flexibility.

PubMed

Ragozzino, Michael E; Mohler, Eric G; Prior, Margaret; Palencia, Carlos A; Rozman, Suzanne

2009-01-01

Daily living often requires individuals to flexibly respond to new circumstances. There is considerable evidence that the striatum is part of a larger neural network that supports flexible adaptations. Cholinergic interneurons are situated to strongly influence striatal output patterns which may enable flexible adaptations. The present experiments investigated whether acetylcholine actions in different striatal regions support behavioral flexibility by measuring acetylcholine efflux during place reversal learning. Acetylcholine efflux selectively increased in the dorsomedial striatum, but not dorsolateral or ventromedial striatum during place reversal learning. In order to modulate the M2-class of autoreceptors, administration of oxotremorine sesquifumurate (100 nM) into the dorsomedial striatum, concomitantly impaired reversal learning and an increase in acetylcholine output. These effects were reversed by the m(2) muscarinic receptor antagonist, AF-DX-116 (20 nM). The effects of oxotremorine sesquifumurate and AF-DX-116 on acetylcholine efflux were selective to behaviorally-induced changes as neither treatment affected acetylcholine output in a resting condition. In contrast to reversal learning, acetylcholine efflux in the dorsomedial striatum did not change during place acquisition. The results reveal an essential role for cholinergic activity and define its locus of control to the dorsomedial striatum in cognitive flexibility.

Highlights of experience with a flexible walled test section in the NASA Langley 0.3-meter transonic cryogenic tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolf, Stephen W. D.; Ray, Edward J.

1988-01-01

The unique combination of adaptive wall technology with a contonuous flow cryogenic wind tunnel is described. This powerful combination allows wind tunnel users to carry out 2-D tests at flight Reynolds numbers with wall interference essentially eliminated. Validation testing was conducted to support this claim using well tested symmetrical and cambered airfoils at transonic speeds and high Reynolds numbers. The test section hardware has four solid walls, with the floor and ceiling flexible. The method of adapting/shaping the floor and ceiling to eliminate top and bottom wall interference at its source is outlined. Data comparisons for different size models tested and others in several sophisticated 2-D wind tunnels are made. In addition, the effects of Reynolds number, testing at high lift with associated large flexible wall movements, the uniqueness of the adapted wall shapes, and the effects of sidewall boundary layer control are examined. The 0.3-m TCT is now the most advanced 2-D research facility anywhere.

Evolution of flexibility and rigidity in retaliatory punishment

PubMed Central

MacGlashan, James; Littman, Michael L.

2017-01-01

Natural selection designs some social behaviors to depend on flexible learning processes, whereas others are relatively rigid or reflexive. What determines the balance between these two approaches? We offer a detailed case study in the context of a two-player game with antisocial behavior and retaliatory punishment. We show that each player in this game—a “thief” and a “victim”—must balance two competing strategic interests. Flexibility is valuable because it allows adaptive differentiation in the face of diverse opponents. However, it is also risky because, in competitive games, it can produce systematically suboptimal behaviors. Using a combination of evolutionary analysis, reinforcement learning simulations, and behavioral experimentation, we show that the resolution to this tension—and the adaptation of social behavior in this game—hinges on the game’s learning dynamics. Our findings clarify punishment’s adaptive basis, offer a case study of the evolution of social preferences, and highlight an important connection between natural selection and learning in the resolution of social conflicts. PMID:28893996

Evolution of flexibility and rigidity in retaliatory punishment.

PubMed

Morris, Adam; MacGlashan, James; Littman, Michael L; Cushman, Fiery

2017-09-26

Natural selection designs some social behaviors to depend on flexible learning processes, whereas others are relatively rigid or reflexive. What determines the balance between these two approaches? We offer a detailed case study in the context of a two-player game with antisocial behavior and retaliatory punishment. We show that each player in this game-a "thief" and a "victim"-must balance two competing strategic interests. Flexibility is valuable because it allows adaptive differentiation in the face of diverse opponents. However, it is also risky because, in competitive games, it can produce systematically suboptimal behaviors. Using a combination of evolutionary analysis, reinforcement learning simulations, and behavioral experimentation, we show that the resolution to this tension-and the adaptation of social behavior in this game-hinges on the game's learning dynamics. Our findings clarify punishment's adaptive basis, offer a case study of the evolution of social preferences, and highlight an important connection between natural selection and learning in the resolution of social conflicts.

The Selection of Test Items for Decision Making with a Computer Adaptive Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spray, Judith A.; Reckase, Mark D.

The issue of test-item selection in support of decision making in adaptive testing is considered. The number of items needed to make a decision is compared for two approaches: selecting items from an item pool that are most informative at the decision point or selecting items that are most informative at the examinee's ability level. The first…

Adaptive control strategies for flexible robotic arm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bialasiewicz, Jan T.

1993-01-01

The motivation of this research came about when a neural network direct adaptive control scheme was applied to control the tip position of a flexible robotic arm. Satisfactory control performance was not attainable due to the inherent non-minimum phase characteristics of the flexible robotic arm tip. Most of the existing neural network control algorithms are based on the direct method and exhibit very high sensitivity if not unstable closed-loop behavior. Therefore a neural self-tuning control (NSTC) algorithm is developed and applied to this problem and showed promising results. Simulation results of the NSTC scheme and the conventional self-tuning (STR) control scheme are used to examine performance factors such as control tracking mean square error, estimation mean square error, transient response, and steady state response.

Adaptive/learning control of large space structures - System identification techniques. [for multi-configuration flexible spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thau, F. E.; Montgomery, R. C.

1980-01-01

Techniques developed for the control of aircraft under changing operating conditions are used to develop a learning control system structure for a multi-configuration, flexible space vehicle. A configuration identification subsystem that is to be used with a learning algorithm and a memory and control process subsystem is developed. Adaptive gain adjustments can be achieved by this learning approach without prestoring of large blocks of parameter data and without dither signal inputs which will be suppressed during operations for which they are not compatible. The Space Shuttle Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) experiment is used as a sample problem for the testing of adaptive/learning control system algorithms.

Adaptable piezoelectric hemispherical composite strips using a scalable groove technique for a self-powered muscle monitoring system.

PubMed

Alluri, Nagamalleswara Rao; Vivekananthan, Venkateswaran; Chandrasekhar, Arunkumar; Kim, Sang-Jae

2018-01-18

Contrary to traditional planar flexible piezoelectric nanogenerators (PNGs), highly adaptable hemispherical shape-flexible piezoelectric composite strip (HS-FPCS) based PNGs are required to harness/measure non-linear surface motions. Therefore, a feasible, cost-effective and less-time consuming groove technique was developed to fabricate adaptable HS-FPCSs with multiple lengths. A single HS-CSPNG generates 130 V/0.8 μA and can also work as a self-powered muscle monitoring system (SP-MMS) to measure maximum human body part movements, i.e., spinal cord, throat, jaw, elbow, knee, foot stress, palm hand/finger force and inhale/exhale breath conditions at a time or at variable time intervals.

Behavioral and Neural Adaptation in Approach Behavior.

PubMed

Wang, Shuo; Falvello, Virginia; Porter, Jenny; Said, Christopher P; Todorov, Alexander

2018-06-01

People often make approachability decisions based on perceived facial trustworthiness. However, it remains unclear how people learn trustworthiness from a population of faces and whether this learning influences their approachability decisions. Here we investigated the neural underpinning of approach behavior and tested two important hypotheses: whether the amygdala adapts to different trustworthiness ranges and whether the amygdala is modulated by task instructions and evaluative goals. We showed that participants adapted to the stimulus range of perceived trustworthiness when making approach decisions and that these decisions were further modulated by the social context. The right amygdala showed both linear response and quadratic response to trustworthiness level, as observed in prior studies. Notably, the amygdala's response to trustworthiness was not modulated by stimulus range or social context, a possible neural dynamic adaptation. Together, our data have revealed a robust behavioral adaptation to different trustworthiness ranges as well as a neural substrate underlying approach behavior based on perceived facial trustworthiness.

Adaptation pathways: ecoregion and land ownership influences on climate adaptation decision-making in forest management

Treesearch

Todd A. Ontl; Chris Swanston; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Anthony W. D’Amato; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon

2018-01-01

Climate adaptation planning and implementation are likely to increase rapidly within the forest sector not only as climate continues to change but also as we intentionally learn from real-world examples. We sought to better understand how adaptation is being incorporated in land management decision-making across diverse land ownership types in the Midwest by evaluating...

Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, L. A.

2012-12-01

Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided through global and regional circulation models and downscaling to arrive at climate driver information that is relevant for parks and the landscapes within which they are found. Considerable effort is necessary to synthesize the information and to effectively communicate uncertainties about both values and trend (e.g. scientists have higher confidence in the trend of temperature over a given time period than the value). Drivers that are determined to be highly consequential and uncertain are used to create management-relevant scenarios using various techniques, including a structured 2X2 matrix approach, a succession of rapid combinations using multiple variables, and the development of a base, "least change" scenario from which alternatives are then constructed. Socio-economic factors are also considered as essential factors that define the full decision environment within which management and policy decisions are made. Resulting scenarios incorporate information about impacts to natural and cultural resources as well as facilities and visitor experience. The NPS conducted prototypes for scenario planning in each of seven regions and has begun to incorporate elements of the process into all planning requirements. A significant outcome of this work is managers and scientists alike understand climate and ecosystem models provide tools for exploring the future rather than predicting it.

Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

Adjustment of Conformational Flexibility is a Key Event in the Thermal Adaptation of Proteins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavodszky, Peter; Kardos, Jozsef; Svingor, Adam; Petsko, Gregory A.

1998-06-01

3-Isopropylmalate dehydrogenase (IPMDH, E.C. 1.1.1.85) from the thermophilic bacterium Thermus thermophilus HB8 is homologous to IPMDH from the mesophilic Escherichia coli, but has an approximately 17 degrees C higher melting temperature. Its temperature optimum is 22-25 degrees C higher than that of the E. coli enzyme; however, it is hardly active at room temperature. The increased conformational rigidity required to stabilize the thermophilic enzyme against heat denaturation might explain its different temperature-activity profile. Hydrogen/deuterium exchange studies were performed on this thermophilic-mesophilic enzyme pair to compare their conformational flexibilities. It was found that Th. thermophilus IPMDH is significantly more rigid at room temperature than E. coli IPMDH, whereas the enzymes have nearly identical flexibilities under their respective optimal working conditions, suggesting that evolutionary adaptation tends to maintain a ``corresponding state'' regarding conformational flexibility. These observations confirm that conformational fluctuations necessary for catalytic function are restricted at room temperature in the thermophilic enzyme, suggesting a close relationship between conformational flexibility and enzyme function.

Hurricane Sandy and Adaptation Pathways in New York: Lessons from a First-Responder City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William

2014-01-01

Two central issues of climate change have become increasingly evident: Climate change will significantly affect cities; and rapid global urbanization will increase dramatically the number of individuals, amount of critical infrastructure, and means of economic production that are exposed and vulnerable to dynamic climate risks. Simultaneously, cities in many settings have begun to emerge as early adopters of climate change action strategies including greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation. The objective of this paper is to examine and analyze how officials of one city - the City of New York - have integrated a flexible adaptation pathways approach into the municipality's climate action strategy. This approach has been connected with the City's ongoing response to Hurricane Sandy, which struck in the October 2012 and resulted in damages worth more than US$19 billion. A case study narrative methodology utilizing the Wise et al. conceptual framework (see this volume) is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the flexible adaptation pathways approach in New York City. The paper finds that Hurricane Sandy serves as a ''tipping point'' leading to transformative adaptation due to the explicit inclusion of increasing climate change risks in the rebuilding effort. The potential for transferability of the approach to cities varying in size and development stage is discussed, with elements useful across cities including the overall concept of flexible adaptation pathways, the inclusion of the full metropolitan region in the planning process, and the co-generation of climate-risk information by stakeholders and scientists.

An examination of flexible spending accounts.

PubMed

Cardon, J H; Showalter, M H

2001-11-01

This paper develops a framework for analyzing flexible spending account (FSA) participation and usage. We explore patterns of FSA usage using data from a benefits firm for 1996 including an examination of types of FSA expenditures and their timing. We estimate some simple econometric models of the participation decision and also the decision of how much to put into an FSA. Several pieces of evidence suggest that much of an FSA election amount is based on foreknowledge of expenditures. We also find that participants tend to spend their election amount early, thus obtaining an interest-free loan.

Distributed Trajectory Flexibility Preservation for Traffic Complexity Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni; Wing, David; Delahaye, Daniel

2009-01-01

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors propose the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics based on Lyapunov exponents and traffic proximity.

The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira

2012-01-01

The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young…

Decision Science Challenges for C2 Agility

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

decision -making effectiveness , but also the adaptive capacities needed to assure the resilience of the decision -making process itself. New methods are... effectiveness , but also the adaptive capacities needed to assure the resilience of the decision -making process itself. New methods are needed to help...of the literature on human biases and limitations, and hence it has been formative of entire programs of resarch and development on

Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach.

PubMed

Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I; Pitt, Mark A

2013-02-01

Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models.

Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings.

PubMed

Poulin, Paule; Austen, Lea; Scott, Catherine M; Poulin, Michelle; Gall, Nadine; Seidel, Judy; Lafrenière, René

2013-01-01

Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA) reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada), for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1) development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2) education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3) evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4) joint evaluation via retreats, 5) synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6) evaluation of the adaptation process. Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence-informed recommendations for introducing new health technologies. We encourage others to use this framework for program adaptation and to report their experiences.

Linking dynamic patterns of neural activity in orbitofrontal cortex with decision making.

PubMed

Rich, Erin L; Stoll, Frederic M; Rudebeck, Peter H

2018-04-01

Humans and animals demonstrate extraordinary flexibility in choice behavior, particularly when deciding based on subjective preferences. We evaluate options on different scales, deliberate, and often change our minds. Little is known about the neural mechanisms that underlie these dynamic aspects of decision-making, although neural activity in orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) likely plays a central role. Recent evidence from studies in macaques shows that attention modulates value responses in OFC, and that ensembles of OFC neurons dynamically signal different options during choices. When contexts change, these ensembles flexibly remap to encode the new task. Determining how these dynamic patterns emerge and relate to choices will inform models of decision-making and OFC function. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flexible letter-position coding is unlikely to hold for morphologically rich languages.

PubMed

Hyönä, Jukka; Bertram, Raymond

2012-10-01

We agree with Frost that flexible letter-position coding is unlikely to be a universal property of word recognition across different orthographies. We argue that it is particularly unlikely in morphologically rich languages like Finnish. We also argue that dual-route models are not overly flexible and that they are well equipped to adapt to the linguistic environment at hand.

Consultant psychiatrists’ experiences of and attitudes towards shared decision making in antipsychotic prescribing, a qualitative study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Shared decision making represents a clinical consultation model where both clinician and service user are conceptualised as experts; information is shared bilaterally and joint treatment decisions are reached. Little previous research has been conducted to assess experience of this model in psychiatric practice. The current project therefore sought to explore the attitudes and experiences of consultant psychiatrists relating to shared decision making in the prescribing of antipsychotic medications. Methods A qualitative research design allowed the experiences and beliefs of participants in relation to shared decision making to be elicited. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants from a range of clinical backgrounds and with varying length of clinical experience. A semi-structured interview schedule was utilised and was adapted in subsequent interviews to reflect emergent themes. Data analysis was completed in parallel with interviews in order to guide interview topics and to inform recruitment. A directed analysis method was utilised for interview analysis with themes identified being fitted to a framework identified from the research literature as applicable to the practice of shared decision making. Examples of themes contradictory to, or not adequately explained by, the framework were sought. Results A total of 26 consultant psychiatrists were interviewed. Participants expressed support for the shared decision making model, but also acknowledged that it was necessary to be flexible as the clinical situation dictated. A number of potential barriers to the process were perceived however: The commonest barrier was the clinician’s beliefs regarding the service users’ insight into their mental disorder, presented in some cases as an absolute barrier to shared decision making. In addition factors external to the clinician - service user relationship were identified as impacting on the decision making process, including; environmental factors, financial constraints as well as societal perceptions of mental disorder in general and antipsychotic medication in particular. Conclusions This project has allowed identification of potential barriers to shared decision making in psychiatric practice. Further work is necessary to observe the decision making process in clinical practice and also to identify means in which the identified barriers, in particular ‘lack of insight’, may be more effectively managed. PMID:24886121

Consultant psychiatrists' experiences of and attitudes towards shared decision making in antipsychotic prescribing, a qualitative study.

PubMed

Shepherd, Andrew; Shorthouse, Oliver; Gask, Linda

2014-05-01

Shared decision making represents a clinical consultation model where both clinician and service user are conceptualised as experts; information is shared bilaterally and joint treatment decisions are reached. Little previous research has been conducted to assess experience of this model in psychiatric practice. The current project therefore sought to explore the attitudes and experiences of consultant psychiatrists relating to shared decision making in the prescribing of antipsychotic medications. A qualitative research design allowed the experiences and beliefs of participants in relation to shared decision making to be elicited. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants from a range of clinical backgrounds and with varying length of clinical experience. A semi-structured interview schedule was utilised and was adapted in subsequent interviews to reflect emergent themes.Data analysis was completed in parallel with interviews in order to guide interview topics and to inform recruitment. A directed analysis method was utilised for interview analysis with themes identified being fitted to a framework identified from the research literature as applicable to the practice of shared decision making. Examples of themes contradictory to, or not adequately explained by, the framework were sought. A total of 26 consultant psychiatrists were interviewed. Participants expressed support for the shared decision making model, but also acknowledged that it was necessary to be flexible as the clinical situation dictated. A number of potential barriers to the process were perceived however: The commonest barrier was the clinician's beliefs regarding the service users' insight into their mental disorder, presented in some cases as an absolute barrier to shared decision making. In addition factors external to the clinician - service user relationship were identified as impacting on the decision making process, including; environmental factors, financial constraints as well as societal perceptions of mental disorder in general and antipsychotic medication in particular. This project has allowed identification of potential barriers to shared decision making in psychiatric practice. Further work is necessary to observe the decision making process in clinical practice and also to identify means in which the identified barriers, in particular 'lack of insight', may be more effectively managed.

AppBuilder for DSSTools; an application development environment for developing decision support systems in Prolog

Treesearch

Geneho Kim; Donald Nute; H. Michael Rauscher; David L. Loftis

2000-01-01

A programming environment for developing complex decision support systems (DSSs) should support rapid prototyping and modular design, feature a flexible knowledge representation scheme and sound inference mechanisms, provide project management, and be domain independent. We have previously developed DSSTools (Decision Support System Tools), a reusable, domain-...

The left inferior frontal gyrus is involved in adjusting response bias during a perceptual decision-making task

PubMed Central

Reckless, Greg E; Ousdal, Olga T; Server, Andres; Walter, Henrik; Andreassen, Ole A; Jensen, Jimmy

2014-01-01

Introduction Changing the way we make decisions from one environment to another allows us to maintain optimal decision-making. One way decision-making may change is how biased one is toward one option or another. Identifying the regions of the brain that underlie the change in bias will allow for a better understanding of flexible decision-making. Methods An event-related, perceptual decision-making task where participants had to detect a picture of an animal amongst distractors was used during functional magnetic resonance imaging. Positive and negative financial motivation were used to affect a change in response bias, and changes in decision-making behavior were quantified using signal detection theory. Results Response bias became relatively more liberal during both positive and negative motivated trials compared to neutral trials. For both motivational conditions, the larger the liberal shift in bias, the greater the left inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) activity. There was no relationship between individuals' belief that they used a different strategy and their actual change in response bias. Conclusions The present findings suggest that the left IFG plays a role in adjusting response bias across different decision environments. This suggests a potential role for the left IFG in flexible decision-making. PMID:24944869

Physiology modulates social flexibility and collective behaviour in equids and other large ungulates.

PubMed

Gersick, Andrew S; Rubenstein, Daniel I

2017-08-19

Though morphologically very similar, equids across the extant species occupy ecological niches that are surprisingly non-overlapping. Occupancy of these distinct niches appears related to subtle physiological and behavioural adaptations which, in turn, correspond to significant differences in the social behaviours and emergent social systems characterizing the different species. Although instances of intraspecific behavioural variation in equids demonstrate that the same body plan can support a range of social structures, each of these morphologically similar species generally shows robust fidelity to its evolved social system. The pattern suggests a subtle relationship between physiological phenotypes and behavioural flexibility. While environmental conditions can vary widely within relatively short temporal or spatial scales, physiological changes and changes to the behaviours that regulate physiological processes, are constrained to longer cycles of adaptation. Physiology is then the limiting variable in the interaction between ecological variation and behavioural and socio-structural flexibility. Behavioural and socio-structural flexibility, in turn, will generate important feedbacks that will govern physiological function, thus creating a coupled web of interactions that can lead to changes in individual and collective behaviour. Longitudinal studies of equid and other large-bodied ungulate populations under environmental stress, such as those discussed here, may offer the best opportunities for researchers to examine, in real time, the interplay between individual behavioural plasticity, socio-structural flexibility, and the physiological and genetic changes that together produce adaptive change.This article is part of the themed issue 'Physiological determinants of social behaviour in animals'. © 2017 The Author(s).

The Business of Co-Production: Assessing Efforts to Bridge Science and Decision-Making for Adaptation in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webber, S.; MacDonald, G. M.

2016-12-01

The last decades have seen scholars argue for a greater integration of science and decision-making in order to more effectively respond to climate change. It has been suggested that overcoming the gap between science, on the one hand, and policy-making and management, on the other, requires building bridges through methods of co-production, creating actionable science, or through boundary organizations. In this paper, we review attempts at co-production for policy-making and management in the context of climate change adaptation in California. Building on field research, including numerous interviews conducted with scientists and decision-makers who are co-producers of adaptation projects, we make three arguments. First, we show that an emphasis on co-production and science-informed climate change adaptation decision-making has bolstered a contract-oriented, and decentralized network-based model of producing climate science. Second, reviewing successes and failures in co-production - as reported in interviews - indicates that it is principally in cases of neatly defined, and spatially and temporarily narrow decision-making contexts, and with highly motivated decision-makers, that climate science is used. Finally, we suggest that the ideas of co-production and actionable science may have increased the institutional and organizational burden at the science-decision interface, lengthening the boundary-organization-chain rather than necessarily facilitating adaptive policy-making and management.

Evidence for a neural correlate of a framing effect: bias-specific activity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex during credibility judgments.

PubMed

Deppe, M; Schwindt, W; Krämer, J; Kugel, H; Plassmann, H; Kenning, P; Ringelstein, E B

2005-11-15

Neural processes within the medial prefrontal cortex play a crucial role in assessing and integrating emotional and other implicit information during decision-making. Phylogenetically, it was important for the individual to assess the relevance of all kinds of environmental stimuli in order to adapt behavior in a flexible manner. Consequently, we can in principle not exclude that environmental information covertly influences the evaluation of actually decision relevant facts ("framing effect"). To test the hypothesis that the medial prefrontal cortex is involved into a framing effect we employed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during a binary credibility judgment task. Twenty-one subjects were asked to judge 30 normalized news magazine headlines by forced answers as "true" or "false". To confound the judgments by formally irrelevant framing information we presented each of the headlines in four different news magazines characterized by varying credibility. For each subject the susceptibility to the judgment confounder (framing information) was assessed by magazine-specific modifications of the answers given. We could show that individual activity changes of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex during the judgments correlate with the degree of an individual's susceptibility to the framing information. We found (i) a neural correlate of a framing effect as postulated by behavioral decision theorists that (ii) reflects interindividual differences in the degree of the susceptibility to framing information.

Dissemination of CBTI to the non-sleep specialist: protocol development and training issues.

PubMed

Manber, Rachel; Carney, Colleen; Edinger, Jack; Epstein, Dana; Friedman, Leah; Haynes, Patricia L; Karlin, Bradley E; Pigeon, Wilfred; Siebern, Allison T; Trockel, Mickey

2012-04-15

Strong evidence supports the efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBTI). A significant barrier to wide dissemination of CBTI is the lack of qualified practitioners. We describe challenges and decisions made when developing a CBTI dissemination program in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). The program targets mental health clinicians from different disciplines (psychiatry, psychology, social work, and nursing) with varying familiarity and experience with general principles of cognitive behavioral therapies (CBT). We explain the scope of training (how much to teach about the science of sleep, comorbid sleep disorders, other medical and mental health comorbidities, and hypnotic-dependent insomnia), discuss adaptation of CBTI to address the unique challenges posed by comorbid insomnia, and describe decisions made about the strategy of training (principles, structure and materials developed/recommended). Among these decisions is the question of how to balance the structure and flexibility of the treatment protocol. We developed a case conceptualization-driven approach and provide a general session-by-session outline. Training licensed therapists who already have many professional obligations required that the training be completed in a relatively short time with minimal disruptions to training participants' routine work responsibilities. These "real-life" constraints shaped the development of this competency-based, yet pragmatic training program. We conclude with a description of preliminary lessons learned from the initial wave of training and propose future directions for research and dissemination.

Defining ecological and economical hydropoweroperations: a framework for managing dam releasesto meet multiple conflicting objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Elise R.

2014-01-01

Hydroelectric dams are a flexible source of power, provide flood control, and contribute to the economic growth of local communities through real-estate and recreation. Yet the impoundment of rivers can alter and fragment miles of critical riverine habitat needed for other competing needs such as downstream consumptive water use, fish and wildlife population viability, or other forms of recreation. Multiple conflicting interests can compromise progressive management especially with recognized uncertainties related to whether management actions will fulfill the objectives of policy makers, resource managers and/or facility owners. Decision analytic tools were used in a stakeholder-driven process to develop and implement a template for evaluation and prediction of the effects of water resource management of multiple-use systems under the context provided by R.L. Harris Dam on the Tallapoosa River, Alabama, USA. The approach provided a transparent and structured framework for decision-making and incorporated both existing and new data to meet multiple management objectives. Success of the template has been evaluated by the stakeholder governing body in an adaptive resource management framework since 2005 and is ongoing. Consequences of management of discharge at the dam were evaluated annually relative to stakeholder satisfaction to allow for adjustment of both management scenarios and objectives. This template can be applied to attempt to resolve conflict inherent in many dam-regulated systems where management decisions impact diverse values of stakeholders.

Flexible stocking strategies for adapting to climatic variability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As a result of precipitation-induced variability on forage production, ranchers have difficulty matching animal demand with forage availability in their operations. Flexible stocking strategies could more effectively use extra forage in highly productive years and limit risk of overgrazing during dr...

Anxiety Evokes Hypofrontality and Disrupts Rule-Relevant Encoding by Dorsomedial Prefrontal Cortex Neurons.

PubMed

Park, Junchol; Wood, Jesse; Bondi, Corina; Del Arco, Alberto; Moghaddam, Bita

2016-03-16

Anxiety is a debilitating symptom of most psychiatric disorders, including major depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, schizophrenia, and addiction. A detrimental aspect of anxiety is disruption of prefrontal cortex (PFC)-mediated executive functions, such as flexible decision making. Here we sought to understand how anxiety modulates PFC neuronal encoding of flexible shifting between behavioral strategies. We used a clinically substantiated anxiogenic treatment to induce sustained anxiety in rats and recorded from dorsomedial PFC (dmPFC) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) neurons while they were freely moving in a home cage and while they performed a PFC-dependent task that required flexible switches between rules in two distinct perceptual dimensions. Anxiety elicited a sustained background "hypofrontality" in dmPFC and OFC by reducing the firing rate of spontaneously active neuronal subpopulations. During task performance, the impact of anxiety was subtle, but, consistent with human data, behavior was selectively impaired when previously correct conditions were presented as conflicting choices. This impairment was associated with reduced recruitment of dmPFC neurons that selectively represented task rules at the time of action. OFC rule representation was not affected by anxiety. These data indicate that a neural substrate of the decision-making deficits in anxiety is diminished dmPFC neuronal encoding of task rules during conflict-related actions. Given the translational relevance of the model used here, the data provide a neuronal encoding mechanism for how anxiety biases decision making when the choice involves overcoming a conflict. They also demonstrate that PFC encoding of actions, as opposed to cues or outcome, is especially vulnerable to anxiety. A debilitating aspect of anxiety is its impact on decision making and flexible control of behavior. These cognitive constructs depend on proper functioning of the prefrontal cortex (PFC). Understanding how anxiety affects PFC encoding of cognitive events is of great clinical and evolutionary significance. Using a clinically valid experimental model, we find that, under anxiety, decision making may be skewed by salient and conflicting environmental stimuli at the expense of flexible top-down guided choices. We also find that anxiety suppresses spontaneous activity of PFC neurons, and weakens encoding of task rules by dorsomedial PFC neurons. These data provide a neuronal encoding scheme for how anxiety disengages PFC during decision making. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/363322-14$15.00/0.

Design Principles for Digital Badges Used in Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rimland, Emily; Raish, Victoria

2017-01-01

Digital badges give libraries greater flexibility in delivering impactful instruction to students. They serve as flexible, stackable microcredentials that sequence an information literacy experience across the curriculum. Design considerations rooted in learning theory have a foundation through which to drive decisions. Information literacy badges…

LMC: Logarithmantic Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantz, Adam B.

2017-06-01

LMC is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo engine in Python that implements adaptive Metropolis-Hastings and slice sampling, as well as the affine-invariant method of Goodman & Weare, in a flexible framework. It can be used for simple problems, but the main use case is problems where expensive likelihood evaluations are provided by less flexible third-party software, which benefit from parallelization across many nodes at the sampling level. The parallel/adaptive methods use communication through MPI, or alternatively by writing/reading files, and mostly follow the approaches pioneered by CosmoMC (ascl:1106.025).

Reusable pipe flange covers

DOEpatents

Holden, James Elliott; Perez, Julieta

2001-01-01

A molded, flexible pipe flange cover for temporarily covering a pipe flange and a pipe opening includes a substantially round center portion having a peripheral skirt portion depending from the center portion, the center portion adapted to engage a front side of the pipe flange and to seal the pipe opening. The peripheral skirt portion is formed to include a plurality of circumferentially spaced tabs, wherein free ends of the flexible tabs are formed with respective through passages adapted to receive a drawstring for pulling the tabs together on a back side of the pipe flange.

Web Service Execution and Monitoring in Integrated Applications in Support of Business Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiriacescu, Rares M.; SzóKe, Alexandru; Portase, Sorin; Florea, Monica

Emerging technology is one of the key factors that drive the business world to faster adaptation, reaction and shorter communication path. Building upon such technologies, business communities emerge, geared toward high flexibility in their offerings and collaboration: business-to-customer and business-to-business collaborations. Adapting to the market requirements, companies must address several technical challenges that arise from the main requirements of the system they have to introduce: a high degree of flexibility, heterogeneous system collaboration and security of the transferred data.

When climate change is a fact! Adaptive strategies for drinking water production in a changing natural environment.

PubMed

Meuleman, A F M; Cirkel, G; Zwolsman, G J J

2007-01-01

Climate change increases water system dynamics through temperature changes, changes in precipitation patterns, evaporation, and water quality and water storage in ice packs. Water system dependent economical stakeholders, such as drinking water companies in the Netherlands, have to cope with consequences of climate change, e.g. floods and water shortages in river systems, upcoming of brackish ground water, salt water intrusion, increasing peak demands and microbiological activity due to temperature rise. In the past decades, however, both water systems and drinking water production have become more and more inflexible; water systems have been heavily regulated aiming at maximum security and economic functions and the drinking water supply in the Netherlands has grown into an inflexible, but cheap and reliable, system. At a water catchment scale, flexibility and adaptation are solutions to overcome climate change related consequences. Flexible adaptive strategies for drinking water production comprise new sources for drinking water production, application of storage concepts in the short term, and a redesign of large centralized systems, including flexible treatment plants, in the long term. Transition to flexible concepts will take decades because investment depreciation periods of assets are long. These strategies must be based on thorough knowledge of current assets to seize opportunities for change.

Smooth adaptive sliding mode vibration control of a flexible parallel manipulator with multiple smart linkages in modal space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Quan; Li, Chaodong; Zhang, Jiantao; Zhang, Jianhui

2017-12-01

This paper addresses the dynamic model and active vibration control of a rigid-flexible parallel manipulator with three smart links actuated by three linear ultrasonic motors. To suppress the vibration of three flexible intermediate links under high speed and acceleration, multiple Lead Zirconium Titanate (PZT) sensors and actuators are collocated mounted on each link, forming a smart structure which can achieve self-sensing and self-actuating. The dynamic characteristics and equations of the flexible link incorporated with the PZT sensors and actuator are analyzed and formulated. The smooth adaptive sliding mode based active vibration control is proposed to suppress the vibration of the smart links, and the first and second modes of the three links are targeted to be suppressed in modal space to avoid the spillover phenomenon. Simulations and experiments are implemented to validate the effectiveness of the smart structures and the proposed control laws. Experimental results show that the vibration of the first mode around 92 Hz and the second mode around 240 Hz of the three smart links are reduced respectively by 64.98%, 59.47%, 62.28%, and 45.80%, 36.79%, 33.33%, which further verify the multi-mode vibration control ability of the smooth adaptive sliding mode control law.

Psychological defense, ideological hideaway, or rational reckoning? The role of uncertainty in local adaptation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moser, S. C.

2011-12-01

As adaptation planning is rising rapidly on the agenda of decision-makers, the need for adequate information to inform those decisions is growing. Locally relevant climate change (as well as related impacts and vulnerability) information, however, is difficult to obtain and that which can be obtained carries the burden of significant scientific uncertainty. This paper aims to assess how important such uncertainty is in adaptation planning, decision-making, and related stakeholder engagement. Does uncertainty actually hinder adaptation planning? Is scientific uncertainty used to postpone decisions reflecting ideologically agendas? Or is it a convenient defense against cognitive and affective engagement with the emerging and projected - and in some cases daunting - climate change risks? To whom does such uncertainty matter and how important is it relative to other challenges decision-makers and stakeholders face? The paper draws on four sources of information to answer these questions: (1) a statewide survey of California coastal managers conducted in summer 2011, (2) years of continual engagement with, and observation of, decision-makers in local adaptation efforts, (3) findings from focus groups with lay individuals in coastal California; and (4) a review of relevant adaptation literature to guide and contextualize the empirical research. The findings entail some "inconvenient truths" for those claiming critical technical or political importance. Rather, the insights suggest that some uncertainties matter more than others; they matter at certain times, but not at others; and they matter to some decision-makers, but not to others. Implications for scientists communicating and engaging with communities are discussed.

Flexible emotion-based decision-making behavior varies in current and former smokers.

PubMed

Briggs, Zoe; O'Connor, Martin; Jollans, Emily K; O'Halloran, Laura; Dymond, Simon; Whelan, Robert

2015-06-01

Suboptimal decision-making is a feature in the initiation and maintenance of substance use, often manifested in choosing for short-term benefits rather than long-term gain, and the failure to display cognitive flexibility, respectively. Studies of nicotine users typically focus on characterizing those who are already addicted; less is known about decision-making in former smokers. Non- (n=21), former daily- (n=23) and current daily smokers (n=24), completed the contingency-shifting variant Iowa Gambling Task (csIGT), in which the reward and punishment contingencies of the decks are systematically varied after 100 trials of the 'standard' IGT. Scores on the standard blocks of the csIGT provided an index of emotion-based decision-making, while the contingency-shifting blocks assessed flexible decision-making. Subjective ratings were also recorded at 20-trial intervals. Both current and former smokers showed significantly impaired performance relative to non-smokers when making decisions during the standard blocks of the csIGT. Both former and non-smokers' awareness of the reward/punishment contingencies was significantly higher than those of current smokers at the end of the standard IGT. Both former and non-smokers had significantly better performance on the contingency shifting blocks, relative to current smokers. The findings indicate that both current and former smokers display a suboptimal pattern of decision-making than non-smokers during the standard IGT. However, with respect to the ability to change behavior following reversed contingencies, former smokers are more similar to non-smokers than to current smokers. Former smokers were also more aware of the contingencies than current smokers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Cognitive Task Analysis of Information Management Strategies in a Computerized Provider Order Entry Environment

PubMed Central

Weir, Charlene R.; Nebeker, Jonathan J.R.; Hicken, Bret L.; Campo, Rebecca; Drews, Frank; LeBar, Beth

2007-01-01

Objective Computerized Provider Order Entry (CPOE) with electronic documentation, and computerized decision support dramatically changes the information environment of the practicing clinician. Prior work patterns based on paper, verbal exchange, and manual methods are replaced with automated, computerized, and potentially less flexible systems. The objective of this study is to explore the information management strategies that clinicians use in the process of adapting to a CPOE system using cognitive task analysis techniques. Design Observation and semi-structured interviews were conducted with 88 primary-care clinicians at 10 Veterans Administration Medical Centers. Measurements Interviews were taped, transcribed, and extensively analyzed to identify key information management goals, strategies, and tasks. Tasks were aggregated into groups, common components across tasks were clarified, and underlying goals and strategies identified. Results Nearly half of the identified tasks were not fully supported by the available technology. Six core components of tasks were identified. Four meta-cognitive information management goals emerged: 1) Relevance Screening; 2) Ensuring Accuracy; 3) Minimizing memory load; and 4) Negotiating Responsibility. Strategies used to support these goals are presented. Conclusion Users develop a wide array of information management strategies that allow them to successfully adapt to new technology. Supporting the ability of users to develop adaptive strategies to support meta-cognitive goals is a key component of a successful system. PMID:17068345

Modeling choice and reaction time during arbitrary visuomotor learning through the coordination of adaptive working memory and reinforcement learning

PubMed Central

Viejo, Guillaume; Khamassi, Mehdi; Brovelli, Andrea; Girard, Benoît

2015-01-01

Current learning theory provides a comprehensive description of how humans and other animals learn, and places behavioral flexibility and automaticity at heart of adaptive behaviors. However, the computations supporting the interactions between goal-directed and habitual decision-making systems are still poorly understood. Previous functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) results suggest that the brain hosts complementary computations that may differentially support goal-directed and habitual processes in the form of a dynamical interplay rather than a serial recruitment of strategies. To better elucidate the computations underlying flexible behavior, we develop a dual-system computational model that can predict both performance (i.e., participants' choices) and modulations in reaction times during learning of a stimulus–response association task. The habitual system is modeled with a simple Q-Learning algorithm (QL). For the goal-directed system, we propose a new Bayesian Working Memory (BWM) model that searches for information in the history of previous trials in order to minimize Shannon entropy. We propose a model for QL and BWM coordination such that the expensive memory manipulation is under control of, among others, the level of convergence of the habitual learning. We test the ability of QL or BWM alone to explain human behavior, and compare them with the performance of model combinations, to highlight the need for such combinations to explain behavior. Two of the tested combination models are derived from the literature, and the latter being our new proposal. In conclusion, all subjects were better explained by model combinations, and the majority of them are explained by our new coordination proposal. PMID:26379518

Adaptation of a Knowledge-Based Decision-Support System in the Tactical Environment.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

002-04-6411S1CURITY CL All PICATION OF 1,416 PAGE (00HIR Onto ea0aOW .L10 *GU9WVC 4bGSI.CAYON S. Voss 10466lVka t... OftesoE ’ making decisons . The...noe..aaw Ad tdlalttt’ IV 680011 MMib) Artificial Intelligence; Decision-Support Systems; Tactical Decision- making ; Knowledge-based Decision-support...tactical information to assist tactical commanders in making decisions. The system, TAC*, for "Tactical Adaptable Consultant," incorporates a database

A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J. B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

2017-07-01

In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states’ parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized ‘adaptive management track’ of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J.B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

2017-01-01

In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states' parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized 'adaptive management track' of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

Self-organized flexible leadership promotes collective intelligence in human groups

PubMed Central

Kurvers, Ralf H. J. M.; Wolf, Max; Naguib, Marc; Krause, Jens

2015-01-01

Collective intelligence refers to the ability of groups to outperform individual decision-makers. At present, relatively little is known about the mechanisms promoting collective intelligence in natural systems. We here test a novel mechanism generating collective intelligence: self-organization according to information quality. We tested this mechanism by performing simulated predator detection experiments using human groups. By continuously tracking the personal information of all members prior to collective decisions, we found that individuals adjusted their response time during collective decisions to the accuracy of their personal information. When individuals possessed accurate personal information, they decided quickly during collective decisions providing accurate information to the other group members. By contrast, when individuals had inaccurate personal information, they waited longer, allowing them to use social information before making a decision. Individuals deciding late during collective decisions had an increased probability of changing their decision leading to increased collective accuracy. Our results thus show that groups can self-organize according to the information accuracy of their members, thereby promoting collective intelligence. Interestingly, we find that individuals flexibly acted both as leader and as follower depending on the quality of their personal information at any particular point in time. PMID:27019718

Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance.

PubMed

DeCaro, Daniel A; Arnol, Craig Anthony Tony; Boama, Emmanuel Frimpong; Garmestani, Ahjond S

2017-03-01

Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance systems adapt. We focus primarily on the interplay between key decision makers in society and legal systems. We argue that adaptive governance must overcome three cooperative dilemmas to facilitate adaptation: (1) encouraging collaborative problem solving, (2) garnering social acceptance and commitment, and (3) cultivating a culture of trust and tolerance for change and uncertainty. However, to do so governance systems must cope with biases in people's decision making that cloud their judgment and create conflict. These systems must also satisfy people's fundamental needs for self-determination, fairness, and security, ensuring that changes to environmental governance are perceived as legitimate, trustworthy, and acceptable. We discuss the implications of these principles for common governance solutions (e.g., public participation, enforcement) and conclude with methodological recommendations. We outline how scholars can investigate the social cognitive principles involved in cases of adaptive governance.

Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

PubMed Central

DeCaro, Daniel A.; Arnol, Craig Anthony (Tony); Boama, Emmanuel Frimpong; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

2018-01-01

Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance systems adapt. We focus primarily on the interplay between key decision makers in society and legal systems. We argue that adaptive governance must overcome three cooperative dilemmas to facilitate adaptation: (1) encouraging collaborative problem solving, (2) garnering social acceptance and commitment, and (3) cultivating a culture of trust and tolerance for change and uncertainty. However, to do so governance systems must cope with biases in people’s decision making that cloud their judgment and create conflict. These systems must also satisfy people’s fundamental needs for self-determination, fairness, and security, ensuring that changes to environmental governance are perceived as legitimate, trustworthy, and acceptable. We discuss the implications of these principles for common governance solutions (e.g., public participation, enforcement) and conclude with methodological recommendations. We outline how scholars can investigate the social cognitive principles involved in cases of adaptive governance. PMID:29780425

Conformity does not perpetuate suboptimal traditions in a wild population of songbirds

PubMed Central

Aplin, Lucy M.; Sheldon, Ben C.; McElreath, Richard

2017-01-01

Social learning is important to the life history of many animals, helping individuals to acquire new adaptive behavior. However despite long-running debate, it remains an open question whether a reliance on social learning can also lead to mismatched or maladaptive behavior. In a previous study, we experimentally induced traditions for opening a bidirectional door puzzle box in replicate subpopulations of the great tit Parus major. Individuals were conformist social learners, resulting in stable cultural behaviors. Here, we vary the rewards gained by these techniques to ask to what extent established behaviors are flexible to changing conditions. When subpopulations with established foraging traditions for one technique were subjected to a reduced foraging payoff, 49% of birds switched their behavior to a higher-payoff foraging technique after only 14 days, with younger individuals showing a faster rate of change. We elucidated the decision-making process for each individual, using a mechanistic learning model to demonstrate that, perhaps surprisingly, this population-level change was achieved without significant asocial exploration and without any evidence for payoff-biased copying. Rather, by combining conformist social learning with payoff-sensitive individual reinforcement (updating of experience), individuals and populations could both acquire adaptive behavior and track environmental change. PMID:28739943

SU-D-BRB-05: Quantum Learning for Knowledge-Based Response-Adaptive Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

El Naqa, I; Ten, R

Purpose: There is tremendous excitement in radiotherapy about applying data-driven methods to develop personalized clinical decisions for real-time response-based adaptation. However, classical statistical learning methods lack in terms of efficiency and ability to predict outcomes under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information. Therefore, we are investigating physics-inspired machine learning approaches by utilizing quantum principles for developing a robust framework to dynamically adapt treatments to individual patient’s characteristics and optimize outcomes. Methods: We studied 88 liver SBRT patients with 35 on non-adaptive and 53 on adaptive protocols. Adaptation was based on liver function using a split-course of 3+2 fractions with amore » month break. The radiotherapy environment was modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP) of baseline and one month into treatment states. The patient environment was modeled by a 5-variable state represented by patient’s clinical and dosimetric covariates. For comparison of classical and quantum learning methods, decision-making to adapt at one month was considered. The MDP objective was defined by the complication-free tumor control (P{sup +}=TCPx(1-NTCP)). A simple regression model represented state-action mapping. Single bit in classical MDP and a qubit of 2-superimposed states in quantum MDP represented the decision actions. Classical decision selection was done using reinforcement Q-learning and quantum searching was performed using Grover’s algorithm, which applies uniform superposition over possible states and yields quadratic speed-up. Results: Classical/quantum MDPs suggested adaptation (probability amplitude ≥0.5) 79% of the time for splitcourses and 100% for continuous-courses. However, the classical MDP had an average adaptation probability of 0.5±0.22 while the quantum algorithm reached 0.76±0.28. In cases where adaptation failed, classical MDP yielded 0.31±0.26 average amplitude while the quantum approach averaged a more optimistic 0.57±0.4, but with high phase fluctuations. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that quantum machine learning approaches provide a feasible and promising framework for real-time and sequential clinical decision-making in adaptive radiotherapy.« less

Working through disaster: re-establishing mental health care after Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Baker, Natalie D; Feldman, Martha S; Lowerson, Victoria

2013-06-01

Our research explored how mental health care providers continued to work during and after Hurricane Katrina. We interviewed 32 practitioners working in the New Orleans mental health care community during and after Hurricane Katrina. Through qualitative data analysis, we developed three temporal periods of disruption: the evacuation period, the surreal period, and the new normal period. We analyzed the actions informants took during these time periods. The mental health care providers adapted to disruption by displaying two forms of flexibility: doing different tasks and doing tasks differently. How much and how they engaged in these forms of flexibility varied during the three periods. Informants' actions helped to create system resilience by adjusting the extent to which they were doing different tasks and the ways in which they were doing tasks differently during the three time periods. Their flexibility allowed them to provide basic care and adapt to changed circumstances. Their flexibility also contributed to maintaining a skilled workforce in the affected region.

Working through disaster: re-establishing mental health care after Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Baker, Natalie D; Feldman, Martha S; Lowerson, Victoria

2012-10-01

Our research explored how mental health care providers continued to work during and after Hurricane Katrina. We interviewed 32 practitioners working in the New Orleans mental health care community during and after Hurricane Katrina. Through qualitative data analysis, we developed three temporal periods of disruption: the evacuation period, the surreal period, and the new normal period. We analyzed the actions informants took during these time periods. The mental health care providers adapted to disruption by displaying two forms of flexibility: doing different tasks and doing tasks differently. How much and how they engaged in these forms of flexibility varied during the three periods. Informants' actions helped to create system resilience by adjusting the extent to which they were doing different tasks and the ways in which they were doing tasks differently during the three time periods. Their flexibility allowed them to provide basic care and adapt to changed circumstances. Their flexibility also contributed to maintaining a skilled workforce in the affected region.

Cropland rental tool (CROPRENT) for agricultural producers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This article describes the Cropland Rental Tool (CROPRENT), which is an Excel-based decision tool for comparing different cropland lease agreements, including flexible cash rents, for up to five crops and/or management systems. Flexible cash rents allow tenants and landowners to share in the risk as...

Revisiting the generation and interpretation of climate models experiments for adaptation decision-making (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranger, N.; Millner, A.; Niehoerster, F.

2010-12-01

Traditionally, climate change risk assessments have taken a roughly four-stage linear ‘chain’ of moving from socioeconomic projections, to climate projections, to primary impacts and then finally onto economic and social impact assessment. Adaptation decisions are then made on the basis of these outputs. The escalation of uncertainty through this chain is well known; resulting in an ‘explosion’ of uncertainties in the final risk and adaptation assessment. The space of plausible future risk scenarios is growing ever wider with the application of new techniques which aim to explore uncertainty ever more deeply; such as those used in the recent ‘probabilistic’ UK Climate Projections 2009, and the stochastic integrated assessment models, for example PAGE2002. This explosion of uncertainty can make decision-making problematic, particularly given that the uncertainty information communicated can not be treated as strictly probabilistic and therefore, is not an easy fit with standard decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Additional problems can arise from the fact that the uncertainty estimated for different components of the ‘chain’ is rarely directly comparable or combinable. Here, we explore the challenges and limitations of using current projections for adaptation decision-making. We report the findings of a recent report completed for the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee on approaches to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today. To illustrate these approaches, we take a number of illustrative case studies, including a case of adaptation to hurricane risk on the US Gulf Coast. This is a particularly interesting case as it involves urgent adaptation of long-lived infrastructure but requires interpreting highly uncertain climate change science and modelling; i.e. projections of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. An approach we outline is reversing the linear chain of assessments to put the economics and decision-making first. Such an approach forces one to focus on the information of greatest value for the specific decision. We suggest that such an approach will help to accommodate the uncertainties in the chain and facilitate robust decision-making. Initial findings of these case studies will be presented with the aim of raising open questions and promoting discussion of the methodology. Finally, we reflect on the implications for the design of climate model experiments.

Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach

PubMed Central

Cavagnaro, Daniel R.; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I.; Pitt, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

Evaluation of decision making and negotiation processes under uncertainties regarding the water management of Peiros-Parapeiros Dam, in Achaia Region (Greece).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podimata, Marianthi V.; Yannopoulos, Panayotis C.

2015-04-01

Water managers, decision-makers, water practitioners and others involved in Integrated Water Resources Management often encounter the problem of finding a joint agreement among stakeholders concerning the management of a common water body. Handling conflict situations/disputes over water issues and finding an acceptable joint solution remain a thorny issue in water negotiation processes, since finding a formula for wise, fair and sustainable management of a water resource is a complex process that includes environmental, economic, technical, socio-political criteria and their uncertainties. Decision Support Systems and Adaptive Management are increasingly used in that direction. To assist decision makers in handling water disputes and execute negotiations, a conceptual tool is required. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is a Decision Support flexible tool for negotiation support regarding water conflicts. It includes efficient algorithms for estimating strategic moves of water stakeholders, even though there is a lack of detail concerning their real motives and prospects. It calculates the stability of their states and encourages what-if analyses. This paper presents a case study of water decision makers' evaluations concerning the management of up-coming technical infrastructure Peiros-Parapeiros Dam, in Achaia Region (Greece). The continuous consultations between institutions and representatives revealed that the formation of a joint agreement between stakeholders is not easy, due to arising conflicts and contradictions regarding the jurisdiction and legal status of the dam operator and the cost undertaking of the dam operation. This paper analyzes the positions of the parties involved in the consultation process and examines possible conflict resolution states, using GMCR II. This methodology tries to minimize uncertainty to a certain extent concerning the possible moves/decisions of involved parties regarding the operation and management of the dam by developing and simulating potential strategic interactions and multilateral negotiations and finding confidence-building cooperation schemes (cooperative arrangements) over water use and management.

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density.

PubMed

Elliot, Nicholas B; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2017-08-01

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3-month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture-recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km 2 , and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Dynamic modelling of n-of-1 data: powerful and flexible data analytics applied to individualised studies.

PubMed

Vieira, Rute; McDonald, Suzanne; Araújo-Soares, Vera; Sniehotta, Falko F; Henderson, Robin

2017-09-01

N-of-1 studies are based on repeated observations within an individual or unit over time and are acknowledged as an important research method for generating scientific evidence about the health or behaviour of an individual. Statistical analyses of n-of-1 data require accurate modelling of the outcome while accounting for its distribution, time-related trend and error structures (e.g., autocorrelation) as well as reporting readily usable contextualised effect sizes for decision-making. A number of statistical approaches have been documented but no consensus exists on which method is most appropriate for which type of n-of-1 design. We discuss the statistical considerations for analysing n-of-1 studies and briefly review some currently used methodologies. We describe dynamic regression modelling as a flexible and powerful approach, adaptable to different types of outcomes and capable of dealing with the different challenges inherent to n-of-1 statistical modelling. Dynamic modelling borrows ideas from longitudinal and event history methodologies which explicitly incorporate the role of time and the influence of past on future. We also present an illustrative example of the use of dynamic regression on monitoring physical activity during the retirement transition. Dynamic modelling has the potential to expand researchers' access to robust and user-friendly statistical methods for individualised studies.

Capturing the Impact of Storage and Other Flexible Technologies on Electric System Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hale, Elaine; Stoll, Brady; Mai, Trieu

Power systems of the future are likely to require additional flexibility. This has been well studied from an operational perspective, but has been more difficult to incorporate into capacity expansion models (CEMs) that study investment decisions on the decadal scale. There are two primary reasons for this. First, the necessary input data, including cost and resource projections, for flexibility options like demand response and storage are significantly uncertain. Second, it is computationally difficult to represent both investment and operational decisions in detail, the latter being necessary to properly value system flexibility, in CEMs for realistically sized systems. In this work,more » we extend a particular CEM, NREL's Resource Planning Model (RPM), to address the latter issue by better representing variable generation impacts on operations, and then adding two flexible technologies to RPM's suite of investment decisions: interruptible load and utility-scale storage. This work does not develop full suites of input data for these technologies, but is rather methodological and exploratory in nature. We thus exercise these new investment decisions in the context of exploring price points and value streams needed for significant deployment in the Western Interconnection by 2030. Our study of interruptible load finds significant variation by location, year, and overall system conditions. Some locations find no system need for interruptible load even with low costs, while others build the most expensive resources offered. System needs can include planning reserve capacity needs to ensure resource adequacy, but there are also particular cases in which spinning reserve requirements drive deployment. Utility-scale storage is found to require deep cost reductions to achieve wide deployment and is found to be more valuable in some locations with greater renewable deployment. Differences between more solar- and wind-reliant regions are also found: Storage technologies with lower energy capacities are deployed to support solar deployment, and higher energy capacity technologies support wind. Finally, we identify potential future research and areas of improvement to build on this initial analysis.« less

Real options and asset valuation in competitive energy markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oduntan, Adekunle Richard

The focus of this work is to develop a robust valuation framework for physical power assets operating in competitive markets such as peaking or mid-merit thermal power plants and baseload power plants. The goal is to develop a modeling framework that can be adapted to different energy assets with different types of operating flexibilities and technical constraints and which can be employed for various purposes such as capital budgeting, business planning, risk management and strategic bidding planning among others. The valuation framework must also be able to capture the reality of power market rules and opportunities, as well as technical constraints of different assets. The modeling framework developed conceptualizes operating flexibilities of power assets as "switching options' whereby the asset operator decides at every decision point whether to switch from one operating mode to another mutually exclusive mode, within the limits of the equipment constraints of the asset. As a current decision to switch operating modes may affect future operating flexibilities of the asset and hence cash flows, a dynamic optimization framework is employed. The developed framework accounts for the uncertain nature of key value drivers by representing them with appropriate stochastic processes. Specifically, the framework developed conceptualizes the operation of a power asset as a multi-stage decision making problem where the operator has to make a decision at every stage to alter operating mode given currently available information about key value drivers. The problem is then solved dynamically by decomposing it into a series of two-stage sub-problems according to Bellman's optimality principle. The solution algorithm employed is the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. The developed valuation framework was adapted for a gas-fired thermal power plant, a peaking hydroelectric power plant and a baseload power plant. This work built on previously published real options valuation methodologies for gas-fired thermal power plants by factoring in uncertainty from gas supply/consumption imbalance which is usually faced by gas-fired power generators. This source of uncertainty arises because of mismatch between natural gas and electricity wholesale markets. Natural gas markets in North America operate on a day-ahead basis while power plants are dispatched in real time. Inability of a power generator to match its gas supply and consumption in real time, leading to unauthorized gas over-run or under-run, attracts penalty charges from the gas supplier to the extent that the generator can not manage the imbalance through other means. By considering an illustrative power plant operating in Ontario, we show effects of gas-imbalance on dispatch strategies on a daily cycling operation basis and the resulting impact on net revenue. Similarly, we employ the developed valuation framework to value a peaking hydroelectric power plant. This application also builds on previous real options valuation work for peaking hydroelectric power plants by considering their operations in a joint energy and ancillary services market. Specifically, the valuation model is developed to capture the value of a peaking power plant whose owner has the flexibility to participate in a joint operating reserve market and an energy market, which is currently the case in the Ontario wholesale power market. The model factors in water inflow uncertainty into the reservoir forebay of a hydroelectric facility and also considers uncertain energy and operating reserve prices. The switching options considered include (i) a joint energy and operating reserve bid (ii) an energy only bid and (iii) a do nothing (idle) strategy. Being an energy limited power plant, by doing nothing at a decision interval, the power asset operator is able to timeshift scarce water for use at a future period when market situations are expected to be better. Finally, the developed valuation framework was employed to optimize life-cycle management decisions of a baseload power plant, such as a nuclear power plant. Given uncertainty of long-term value drivers, including power prices, equipment performance and the relationship between current life cycle spending and future equipment degradation, optimization is carried out with the objective of minimizing overall life-cycle related costs. These life-cycle costs include (i) lost revenue during planned and unplanned outages, (ii) potential costs of future equipment degradation due to inadequate preventative maintenance, and (iii) the direct costs of implementing the life-cycle projects. The switching options in this context include the option to shutdown the power plant in order to execute a given preventative maintenance and inspection project and the option to keep the option "alive" by choosing to delay a planned life-cycle activity.

‘They leave at least believing they had a part in the discussion’: Understanding decision aid use and patient–clinician decision-making through qualitative research

PubMed Central

Tiedje, Kristina; Shippee, Nathan D.; Johnson, Anna M.; Flynn, Priscilla M.; Finnie, Dawn M.; Liesinger, Juliette T.; May, Carl R.; Olson, Marianne E.; Ridgeway, Jennifer L.; Shah, Nilay D.; Yawn, Barbara P.; Montori, Victor M.

2013-01-01

Objective This study explores how patient decision aids (DAs) for antihyperglycemic agents and statins, designed for use during clinical consultations, are embedded into practice, examining how patients and clinicians understand and experience DAs in primary care visits. Methods We conducted semistructured in-depth interviews with patients (n = 22) and primary care clinicians (n = 19), and videorecorded consultations (n = 44). Two researchers coded all transcripts. Inductive analyses guided by grounded theory led to the identification of themes. Video and interview data were compared and organized by themes. Results DAs used during consultations became flexible artifacts, incorporated into existing decision making roles for clinicians (experts, authority figures, persuaders, advisors) and patients (drivers of healthcare, learners, partners). DAs were applied to different decision making steps (deliberation, bargaining, convincing, case assessment), and introduced into an existing knowledge context (participants’ literacy regarding shared decision-making (SDM) and DAs). Conclusion DAs’ flexible use during consultations effectively provided space for discussion, even when SDM was not achieved. DAs can be used within any decision-making model. Practice implications Clinician training in DA use and SDM practice may be needed to facilitate DA implementation and promote more ideal-type forms of sharing in decision making. PMID:23598292

The Role of Frontal Cortical and Medial-Temporal Lobe Brain Areas in Learning a Bayesian Prior Belief on Reversals

PubMed Central

Jang, Anthony I.; Costa, Vincent D.; Rudebeck, Peter H.; Chudasama, Yogita; Murray, Elisabeth A.

2015-01-01

Reversal learning has been extensively studied across species as a task that indexes the ability to flexibly make and reverse deterministic stimulus–reward associations. Although various brain lesions have been found to affect performance on this task, the behavioral processes affected by these lesions have not yet been determined. This task includes at least two kinds of learning. First, subjects have to learn and reverse stimulus–reward associations in each block of trials. Second, subjects become more proficient at reversing choice preferences as they experience more reversals. We have developed a Bayesian approach to separately characterize these two learning processes. Reversal of choice behavior within each block is driven by a combination of evidence that a reversal has occurred, and a prior belief in reversals that evolves with experience across blocks. We applied the approach to behavior obtained from 89 macaques, comprising 12 lesion groups and a control group. We found that animals from all of the groups reversed more quickly as they experienced more reversals, and correspondingly they updated their prior beliefs about reversals at the same rate. However, the initial values of the priors that the various groups of animals brought to the task differed significantly, and it was these initial priors that led to the differences in behavior. Thus, by taking a Bayesian approach we find that variability in reversal-learning performance attributable to different neural systems is primarily driven by different prior beliefs about reversals that each group brings to the task. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The ability to use prior knowledge to adapt choice behavior is critical for flexible decision making. Reversal learning is often studied as a form of flexible decision making. However, prior studies have not identified which brain regions are important for the formation and use of prior beliefs to guide choice behavior. Here we develop a Bayesian approach that formally characterizes learning set as a concept, and we show that, in macaque monkeys, the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex have a role in establishing an initial belief about the stability of the reward environment. PMID:26290251

Modeling, Control, and Estimation of Flexible, Aerodynamic Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, Cody W.

Engineers have long been inspired by nature’s flyers. Such animals navigate complex environments gracefully and efficiently by using a variety of evolutionary adaptations for high-performance flight. Biologists have discovered a variety of sensory adaptations that provide flow state feedback and allow flying animals to feel their way through flight. A specialized skeletal wing structure and plethora of robust, adaptable sensory systems together allow nature’s flyers to adapt to myriad flight conditions and regimes. In this work, motivated by biology and the successes of bio-inspired, engineered aerial vehicles, linear quadratic control of a flexible, morphing wing design is investigated, helping to pave the way for truly autonomous, mission-adaptive craft. The proposed control algorithm is demonstrated to morph a wing into desired positions. Furthermore, motivated specifically by the sensory adaptations organisms possess, this work transitions to an investigation of aircraft wing load identification using structural response as measured by distributed sensors. A novel, recursive estimation algorithm is utilized to recursively solve the inverse problem of load identification, providing both wing structural and aerodynamic states for use in a feedback control, mission-adaptive framework. The recursive load identification algorithm is demonstrated to provide accurate load estimate in both simulation and experiment.

An SDR-Based Real-Time Testbed for GNSS Adaptive Array Anti-Jamming Algorithms Accelerated by GPU

PubMed Central

Xu, Hailong; Cui, Xiaowei; Lu, Mingquan

2016-01-01

Nowadays, software-defined radio (SDR) has become a common approach to evaluate new algorithms. However, in the field of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) adaptive array anti-jamming, previous work has been limited due to the high computational power demanded by adaptive algorithms, and often lack flexibility and configurability. In this paper, the design and implementation of an SDR-based real-time testbed for GNSS adaptive array anti-jamming accelerated by a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) are documented. This testbed highlights itself as a feature-rich and extendible platform with great flexibility and configurability, as well as high computational performance. Both Space-Time Adaptive Processing (STAP) and Space-Frequency Adaptive Processing (SFAP) are implemented with a wide range of parameters. Raw data from as many as eight antenna elements can be processed in real-time in either an adaptive nulling or beamforming mode. To fully take advantage of the parallelism resource provided by the GPU, a batched method in programming is proposed. Tests and experiments are conducted to evaluate both the computational and anti-jamming performance. This platform can be used for research and prototyping, as well as a real product in certain applications. PMID:26978363

An SDR-Based Real-Time Testbed for GNSS Adaptive Array Anti-Jamming Algorithms Accelerated by GPU.

PubMed

Xu, Hailong; Cui, Xiaowei; Lu, Mingquan

2016-03-11

Nowadays, software-defined radio (SDR) has become a common approach to evaluate new algorithms. However, in the field of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) adaptive array anti-jamming, previous work has been limited due to the high computational power demanded by adaptive algorithms, and often lack flexibility and configurability. In this paper, the design and implementation of an SDR-based real-time testbed for GNSS adaptive array anti-jamming accelerated by a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) are documented. This testbed highlights itself as a feature-rich and extendible platform with great flexibility and configurability, as well as high computational performance. Both Space-Time Adaptive Processing (STAP) and Space-Frequency Adaptive Processing (SFAP) are implemented with a wide range of parameters. Raw data from as many as eight antenna elements can be processed in real-time in either an adaptive nulling or beamforming mode. To fully take advantage of the parallelism resource provided by the GPU, a batched method in programming is proposed. Tests and experiments are conducted to evaluate both the computational and anti-jamming performance. This platform can be used for research and prototyping, as well as a real product in certain applications.

Physician behavioral adaptability: A model to outstrip a "one size fits all" approach.

PubMed

Carrard, Valérie; Schmid Mast, Marianne

2015-10-01

Based on a literature review, we propose a model of physician behavioral adaptability (PBA) with the goal of inspiring new research. PBA means that the physician adapts his or her behavior according to patients' different preferences. The PBA model shows how physicians infer patients' preferences and adapt their interaction behavior from one patient to the other. We claim that patients will benefit from better outcomes if their physicians show behavioral adaptability rather than a "one size fits all" approach. This literature review is based on a literature search of the PsycINFO(®) and MEDLINE(®) databases. The literature review and first results stemming from the authors' research support the validity and viability of parts of the PBA model. There is evidence suggesting that physicians are able to show behavioral flexibility when interacting with their different patients, that a match between patients' preferences and physician behavior is related to better consultation outcomes, and that physician behavioral adaptability is related to better consultation outcomes. Training of physicians' behavioral flexibility and their ability to infer patients' preferences can facilitate physician behavioral adaptability and positive patient outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

When is an error not a prediction error? An electrophysiological investigation.

PubMed

Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E; Baker, Robert; Lee, Seung; Gibson, Jessica

2009-03-01

A recent theory holds that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) uses reinforcement learning signals conveyed by the midbrain dopamine system to facilitate flexible action selection. According to this position, the impact of reward prediction error signals on ACC modulates the amplitude of a component of the event-related brain potential called the error-related negativity (ERN). The theory predicts that ERN amplitude is monotonically related to the expectedness of the event: It is larger for unexpected outcomes than for expected outcomes. However, a recent failure to confirm this prediction has called the theory into question. In the present article, we investigated this discrepancy in three trial-and-error learning experiments. All three experiments provided support for the theory, but the effect sizes were largest when an optimal response strategy could actually be learned. This observation suggests that ACC utilizes dopamine reward prediction error signals for adaptive decision making when the optimal behavior is, in fact, learnable.

Oxytocin conditions trait-based rule adherence

PubMed Central

De Dreu, Carsten K.W.

2017-01-01

Abstract Rules, whether in the form of norms, taboos or laws, regulate and coordinate human life. Some rules, however, are arbitrary and adhering to them can be personally costly. Rigidly sticking to such rules can be considered maladaptive. Here, we test whether, at the neurobiological level, (mal)adaptive rule adherence is reduced by oxytocin—a hypothalamic neuropeptide that biases the biobehavioural approach-avoidance system. Participants (N = 139) self-administered oxytocin or placebo intranasally, and reported their need for structure and approach-avoidance sensitivity. Next, participants made binary decisions and were given an arbitrary rule that demanded to forgo financial benefits. Under oxytocin, participants violated the rule more often, especially when they had high need for structure and high approach sensitivity. Possibly, oxytocin dampens the need for a highly structured environment and enables individuals to flexibly trade-off internal desires against external restrictions. Implications for the treatment of clinical disorders marked by maladaptive rule adherence are discussed. PMID:27664999

Building flexible real-time systems using the Flex language

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Kevin B.; Lin, Kwei-Jay

1991-01-01

The design and implementation of a real-time programming language called Flex, which is a derivative of C++, are presented. It is shown how different types of timing requirements might be expressed and enforced in Flex, how they might be fulfilled in a flexible way using different program models, and how the programming environment can help in making binding and scheduling decisions. The timing constraint primitives in Flex are easy to use yet powerful enough to define both independent and relative timing constraints. Program models like imprecise computation and performance polymorphism can carry out flexible real-time programs. In addition, programmers can use a performance measurement tool that produces statistically correct timing models to predict the expected execution time of a program and to help make binding decisions. A real-time programming environment is also presented.

Serotonin Transporter Knockout Rats Show Improved Strategy Set-Shifting and Reduced Latent Inhibition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nonkes, Lourens J. P.; van de Vondervoort, Ilse I. G. M.; de Leeuw, Mark J. C.; Wijlaars, Linda P.; Maes, Joseph H. R.; Homberg, Judith R.

2012-01-01

Behavioral flexibility is a cognitive process depending on prefrontal areas allowing adaptive responses to environmental changes. Serotonin transporter knockout (5-HTT[superscript -/-]) rodents show improved reversal learning in addition to orbitofrontal cortex changes. Another form of behavioral flexibility, extradimensional strategy set-shifting…

SUNY Management Flexibility Program. Program Audit.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New York State Legislative Commission on Expenditure Review, Albany.

This audit assesses implementation of the University Operating Flexibility Act by the State University of New York (SUNY). The legislation was designed to give SUNY more autonomy to make daily operating decisions, in order that SUNY could better compete with other major higher education institutions nationwide. The legislation empowered SUNY to…

Flexibility Support for Homecare Applications Based on Models and Multi-Agent Technology

PubMed Central

Armentia, Aintzane; Gangoiti, Unai; Priego, Rafael; Estévez, Elisabet; Marcos, Marga

2015-01-01

In developed countries, public health systems are under pressure due to the increasing percentage of population over 65. In this context, homecare based on ambient intelligence technology seems to be a suitable solution to allow elderly people to continue to enjoy the comforts of home and help optimize medical resources. Thus, current technological developments make it possible to build complex homecare applications that demand, among others, flexibility mechanisms for being able to evolve as context does (adaptability), as well as avoiding service disruptions in the case of node failure (availability). The solution proposed in this paper copes with these flexibility requirements through the whole life-cycle of the target applications: from design phase to runtime. The proposed domain modeling approach allows medical staff to design customized applications, taking into account the adaptability needs. It also guides software developers during system implementation. The application execution is managed by a multi-agent based middleware, making it possible to meet adaptation requirements, assuring at the same time the availability of the system even for stateful applications. PMID:26694416

The Delicate Balance of Preorganisation and Adaptability in Multiply Bonded Host-Guest Complexes.

PubMed

von Krbek, Larissa K S; Achazi, Andreas J; Schoder, Stefan; Gaedke, Marius; Biberger, Tobias; Paulus, Beate; Schalley, Christoph A

2017-02-24

Rigidity and preorganisation are believed to be required for high affinity in multiply bonded supramolecular complexes as they help reduce the entropic penalty of the binding event. This comes at the price that such rigid complexes are sensitive to small geometric mismatches. In marked contrast, nature uses more flexible building blocks. Thus, one might consider putting the rigidity/high-affinity notion to the test. Multivalent crown/ammonium complexes are ideal for this purpose as the monovalent interaction is well understood. A series of divalent complexes with different spacer lengths and rigidities has thus been analysed to correlate chelate cooperativities and spacer properties. Too long spacers reduce chelate cooperativity compared to exactly matching ones. However, in contrast to expectation, flexible guests bind with chelate cooperativities clearly exceeding those of rigid structures. Flexible spacers adapt to small geometric host-guest mismatches. Spacer-spacer interactions help overcome the entropic penalty of conformational fixation during binding and a delicate balance of preorganisation and adaptability is at play in multivalent complexes. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Farmer Decision-Making for Climate Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubell, M.; Niles, M.; Salerno, J.

2015-12-01

This talk will provide an overview of several studies of how farmers make decisions about climate change adaptation and mitigation. A particular focus will be the "limiting factors hypothesis", which argues that farmers will respond to the climate variables that usually have the largest impact on their crop productivity. For example, the most limiting factor in California is usually water so how climate change affects water will be the largest drive of climate adaptation decisions. This basic idea is drawn from the broader theory of "psychological distance", which argue that human decisions are more attuned to ideas that are psychologically closer in space, time, or other factors. Empirical examples come from California, New Zealand, and Africa.

America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilbanks, T.; Yohe, G.; Mengelt, C.; Casola, J.

2010-12-01

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study assessed, this study assessed how the nation can begin to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Much of the nation’s experience to date in managing and protecting its people, resources, and infrastructure is based on the historic record of climate variability during a period of relatively stable climate. Adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts. The Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change report calls for action at all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector to assess vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change and identify options for adaptation. Current adaptation efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options, by uncertainty about future climate change impacts at a scale necessary for decision-making, and by a lack of coordination. The report outlines a risk management framework that can be applied to assess vulnerabilities, compare and evaluate potential adaptation options, recognizing that decision makers across the country are likely to pursue a diverse set of adaptation measures. A major research effort is needed to improve knowledge about current and future vulnerabilities, explore new adaptation options, and better inform adaptation decisions. Therefore, the report also emphasizes the need to continually re-assess adaptation decisions as the experience and knowledge regarding effective adaptation evolves. A national adaptation strategy is needed in which the federal government would support and enhance adaptation activities undertaken by state, local, tribal, and private entities; identify and modify policies that might provide incentives for maladaptive behavior; bolster scientific research regarding adaptation; and encourage adaptation on a global scale through national programs with international components.

An introduction to adaptive management for threatened and endangered species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.

2011-01-01

Management of threatened and endangered species would seem to be a perfect context for adaptive management. Many of the decisions are recurrent and plagued by uncertainty, exactly the conditions that warrant an adaptive approach. But although the potential of adaptive management in these settings has been extolled, there are limited applications in practice. The impediments to practical implementation are manifold and include semantic confusion, institutional inertia, misperceptions about the suitability and utility, and a lack of guiding examples. In this special section of the Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, we hope to reinvigorate the appropriate application of adaptive management for threatened and endangered species by framing such management in a decision-analytical context, clarifying misperceptions, classifying the types of decisions that might be amenable to an adaptive approach, and providing three fully developed case studies. In this overview paper, I define terms, review the past application of adaptive management, challenge perceived hurdles, and set the stage for the case studies which follow.

Climate change and drinking water production in The Netherlands: a flexible approach.

PubMed

Ramaker, T A B; Meuleman, A F M; Bernhardi, L; Cirkel, G

2005-01-01

Climate change increases water system dynamics through temperature changes, changes in precipitation patterns, evaporation, water quality and water storage in ice packs. Water system dependent economical stakeholders, such as drinking water companies in The Netherlands, have to cope with consequences of climate change, e.g. floods and water shortages in river systems, upconing brackish ground water, salt water intrusion, increasing peak demands and microbiological activity. In the past decades, however, both water systems and drinking water production have become more and more inflexible; water systems have been heavily regulated and the drinking water supply has grown into an inflexible, but cheap and reliable, system. Flexibility and adaptivity are solutions to overcome climate change related consequences. Flexible adaptive strategies for drinking water production comprise new sources for drinking water production, application of storage concepts in the short term, and a redesign of large centralised systems, including flexible treatment plants, in the long term. Transition to flexible concepts will take decades because investment depreciation periods of assets are long. This implies that long-term strategies within an indicated time path have to be developed. These strategies must be based on thorough knowledge of current assets to seize opportunities for change.

Behavioral flexibility and problem solving in an invasive bird.

PubMed

Logan, Corina J

2016-01-01

Behavioral flexibility is considered an important trait for adapting to environmental change, but it is unclear what it is, how it works, and whether it is a problem solving ability. I investigated behavioral flexibility and problem solving experimentally in great-tailed grackles, an invasive bird species and thus a likely candidate for possessing behavioral flexibility. Grackles demonstrated behavioral flexibility in two contexts, the Aesop's Fable paradigm and a color association test. Contrary to predictions, behavioral flexibility did not correlate across contexts. Four out of 6 grackles exhibited efficient problem solving abilities, but problem solving efficiency did not appear to be directly linked with behavioral flexibility. Problem solving speed also did not significantly correlate with reversal learning scores, indicating that faster learners were not the most flexible. These results reveal how little we know about behavioral flexibility, and provide an immense opportunity for future research to explore how individuals and species can use behavior to react to changing environments.

Adapting Reading and Math Materials for the Inclusive Classroom. Volume 2: Kindergarten through Grade Five. ERIC/OSEP Mini-Library.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shumm, Jeanne Shay

This book offers guidelines for elementary school teachers for making adaptations in reading and mathematics instruction for students with mild disabilities in the general education classroom. Following an introductory chapter, Chapter 1 presents eight principles for materials adaption organized according to the acronym FLEXIBLE: F-feasible…

Hardware demonstration of flexible beam control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaechter, D. B.

1980-01-01

An experiment employing a pinned-free flexible beam has been constructed to demonstrate and verify several facets of the control of flexible structures. The desired features of the experiment are to demonstrate active shape control, active dynamic control, adaptive control, various control law design approaches, and associated hardware requirements and mechanization difficulties. This paper contains the analytical work performed in support of the facility development, the final design specifications, control law synthesis, and some preliminary results.

Adaptive decision rules for the acquisition of nature reserves.

PubMed

Turner, Will R; Wilcove, David S

2006-04-01

Although reserve-design algorithms have shown promise for increasing the efficiency of conservation planning, recent work casts doubt on the usefulness of some of these approaches in practice. Using three data sets that vary widely in size and complexity, we compared various decision rules for acquiring reserve networks over multiyear periods. We explored three factors that are often important in real-world conservation efforts: uncertain availability of sites for acquisition, degradation of sites, and overall budget constraints. We evaluated the relative strengths and weaknesses of existing optimal and heuristic decision rules and developed a new set of adaptive decision rules that combine the strengths of existing optimal and heuristic approaches. All three of the new adaptive rules performed better than the existing rules we tested under virtually all scenarios of site availability, site degradation, and budget constraints. Moreover, the adaptive rules required no additional data beyond what was readily available and were relatively easy to compute.

The adaptive use of recognition in group decision making.

PubMed

Kämmer, Juliane E; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Reimer, Torsten; Schermuly, Carsten C

2014-06-01

Applying the framework of ecological rationality, the authors studied the adaptivity of group decision making. In detail, they investigated whether groups apply decision strategies conditional on their composition in terms of task-relevant features. The authors focused on the recognition heuristic, so the task-relevant features were the validity of the group members' recognition and knowledge, which influenced the potential performance of group strategies. Forty-three three-member groups performed an inference task in which they had to infer which of two German companies had the higher market capitalization. Results based on the choice data support the hypothesis that groups adaptively apply the strategy that leads to the highest theoretically achievable performance. Time constraints had no effect on strategy use but did have an effect on the proportions of different types of arguments. Possible mechanisms underlying the adaptive use of recognition in group decision making are discussed. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Programmable on-chip and off-chip network architecture on demand for flexible optical intra-datacenters.

PubMed

Rofoee, Bijan Rahimzadeh; Zervas, Georgios; Yan, Yan; Amaya, Norberto; Qin, Yixuan; Simeonidou, Dimitra

2013-03-11

The paper presents a novel network architecture on demand approach using on-chip and-off chip implementations, enabling programmable, highly efficient and transparent networking, well suited for intra-datacenter communications. The implemented FPGA-based adaptable line-card with on-chip design along with an architecture on demand (AoD) based off-chip flexible switching node, deliver single chip dual L2-Packet/L1-time shared optical network (TSON) server Network Interface Cards (NIC) interconnected through transparent AoD based switch. It enables hitless adaptation between Ethernet over wavelength switched network (EoWSON), and TSON based sub-wavelength switching, providing flexible bitrates, while meeting strict bandwidth, QoS requirements. The on and off-chip performance results show high throughput (9.86Ethernet, 8.68Gbps TSON), high QoS, as well as hitless switch-over.

77 FR 40618 - Announcement of Requirements and Registration for “SMART-Indivo Challenge”

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-10

.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: A health care system adapting to the effects of an aging population, growing expenditures, and a diminishing primary care workforce needs the support of a flexible information infrastructure that facilitates innovation in wellness, health care, and public health. Flexibility is critical...

Contributions of COMT Val[superscript 158]Met to Cognitive Stability and Flexibility in Infancy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Markant, Julie; Cicchetti, Dante; Hetzel, Susan; Thomas, Kathleen M.

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior requires focusing on relevant tasks while remaining sensitive to novel information. In adult studies of cognitive control, cognitive stability involves maintaining robust cognitive representations while cognitive flexibility involves updating of representations in response to novel information. Previous adult research has shown…

Cognitive Flexibility in Phenotypes of Pediatric Bipolar Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickstein, Daniel P.; Nelson, Eric E.; McClure, Erin B.; Grimley, Mary E.; Knopf, Lisa; Brotman, Melissa A.; Rich, Brendan A.; Pine, Daniel S.; Leibenluft, Ellen

2007-01-01

Objective: Clinicians and researchers debate whether children with chronic, nonepisodic irritability should receive the diagnosis of bipolar disorder (BD). To address this debate, we evaluated cognitive flexibility, or the ability to adapt to changing contingencies, in three groups of children: narrow-phenotype BD (NP-BD; full-duration manic…

Smartphone adapters for flexible Nasolaryngoscopy: a systematic review.

PubMed

Quimby, A E; Kohlert, S; Caulley, L; Bromwich, M

2018-05-08

Flexible nasolaryngoscopy is an essential component of the otolaryngological physical exam. Historically, the ability to create and share video recordings of these endoscopic exams has been limited by poor mobility of fixed endoscopy towers. The advent of smartphone endoscope adapters has allowed physicians to create and share video recordings of endoscopy in a wide variety of locations that would not have previously been feasible. This paper sought to review the literature on the effect of smartphone endoscope adapters on patient care, patient satisfaction, and resident learning. This systematic review was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines. A systematic literature search was performed for all relevant English language studies (1946-2017) using Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE. The study protocol was registered with the PROSPERO database. A total of 91 abstracts were identified and screened by two independent reviewers. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, three studies were selected and subjected to full-text extraction as well as quality assessment. These studies demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy and quality of smartphone adapter-recorded videos, and a benefit of these devices on resident education. Due to the heterogeneity of included studies' methods and measures, a meta-analysis was not possible, so a qualitative synthesis of the literature results was performed. Despite a paucity of data on the subject, the present study provided a comprehensive review of the literature, and suggested overall high diagnostic accuracy, quality, and enhancement of resident education with the use of smartphone endoscope adapters for flexible nasolaryngoscopy. CRD42018086714.

Direct model reference adaptive control with application to flexible robots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinvorth, Rodrigo; Kaufman, Howard; Neat, Gregory W.

1992-01-01

A modification to a direct command generator tracker-based model reference adaptive control (MRAC) system is suggested in this paper. This modification incorporates a feedforward into the reference model's output as well as the plant's output. Its purpose is to eliminate the bounded model following error present in steady state when previous MRAC systems were used. The algorithm was evaluated using the dynamics for a single-link flexible-joint arm. The results of these simulations show a response with zero steady state model following error. These results encourage further use of MRAC for various types of nonlinear plants.

Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

2014-11-01

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

Adaptive Schools in a Quantum Universe.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garmston, Robert; Wellman, Bruce

1995-01-01

Information from quantum mechanics, chaos theory, fractal geometry, and the new biology can help educators rethink school-improvement approaches. Chaos and order exist simultaneously. Adaptability, the central operating principle of successful organizations, stems from five human energy fields: efficacy, flexibility, craftsmanship, consciousness,…

Resilience in Transboundary Water Governance: the Okavango River Basin…

EPA Science Inventory

When the availability of a vital resource varies between times of overabundance and extreme scarcity, management regimes must manifest flexibility and authority to adapt while maintaining legitimacy. Unfortunately, the need for adaptability often conflicts with the desire for cer...

Persistency and flexibility of complex brain networks underlie dual-task interference.

PubMed

Alavash, Mohsen; Hilgetag, Claus C; Thiel, Christiane M; Gießing, Carsten

2015-09-01

Previous studies on multitasking suggest that performance decline during concurrent task processing arises from interfering brain modules. Here, we used graph-theoretical network analysis to define functional brain modules and relate the modular organization of complex brain networks to behavioral dual-task costs. Based on resting-state and task fMRI we explored two organizational aspects potentially associated with behavioral interference when human subjects performed a visuospatial and speech task simultaneously: the topological overlap between persistent single-task modules, and the flexibility of single-task modules in adaptation to the dual-task condition. Participants showed a significant decline in visuospatial accuracy in the dual-task compared with single visuospatial task. Global analysis of topological similarity between modules revealed that the overlap between single-task modules significantly correlated with the decline in visuospatial accuracy. Subjects with larger overlap between single-task modules showed higher behavioral interference. Furthermore, lower flexible reconfiguration of single-task modules in adaptation to the dual-task condition significantly correlated with larger decline in visuospatial accuracy. Subjects with lower modular flexibility showed higher behavioral interference. At the regional level, higher overlap between single-task modules and less modular flexibility in the somatomotor cortex positively correlated with the decline in visuospatial accuracy. Additionally, higher modular flexibility in cingulate and frontal control areas and lower flexibility in right-lateralized nodes comprising the middle occipital and superior temporal gyri supported dual-tasking. Our results suggest that persistency and flexibility of brain modules are important determinants of dual-task costs. We conclude that efficient dual-tasking benefits from a specific balance between flexibility and rigidity of functional brain modules. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An eight-week mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) workshop increases regulatory choice flexibility.

PubMed

Alkoby, Alon; Pliskin, Ruthie; Halperin, Eran; Levit-Binnun, Nava

2018-06-28

Individuals encounter a variety of emotional challenges daily, with optimal emotion modulation requiring adaptive choice among available means of regulation. However, individuals differ in the ability to flexibly and adaptively move between engaging and disengaging emotion regulation (ER) strategies as per contextual demands, referred to as regulatory choice flexibility. Greater regulatory choice flexibility is associated with greater mental health, well-being and resilience, warranting the development of interventions to increase such flexibility. We hypothesized that a mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) program would fulfill this goal. To test our hypothesis, we recruited college students to either participate in an 8-week MBSR workshop or join a waiting list for a later workshop (i.e., control participants). After the workshop's completion, all participants were invited to the laboratory and completed several computerized tasks examining their regulatory choice flexibility when exposed to universally emotion-laden stimuli as well as stimuli specifically related to the students' social and political environment. The regulatory choice patterns of participants who underwent MBSR training were found to be more flexible than those of participants who had not yet completed the workshop, with the former more likely than the latter to favor an engaging ER strategy (i.e., reappraisal) when faced with low-intensity stimuli and a disengaging strategy (i.e., distraction) when faced with high-intensity stimuli. The findings' importance is discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Beyond Prediction: the Many Ways in which Climate Science can Inform Adaptation Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2017-12-01

Climate science provides an increasingly rich understanding of current and future climate, but this understanding is often not fully incorporated into climate adaptation decisions. In particular, the provision of climate information is still trapped in a narrow prediction-based framework, which envisions a sequential process that begins with model-based forecasts of future climate and decision makers then acting on those forecasts. Among its challenges, this framework can discourage action when climate predictions are deemed too uncertain, encourage overconfidence when climate scientists and decision makers fail to focus on decision-relevant but poorly understood extreme events, and offers a too-narrow communication path among climate scientists and decision makers. This talk will describe how robust decision approaches, organized around the idea of stress testing proposed adaptation decisions over a wide range of futures, can enable a richer flow information among climate scientists and decision makers. The talk illustrates these themes with two examples: 1) conservation management that explores the tradeoffs among alternative climate information products with different combinations of ensemble size and spatial resolution and 2) water quality implementation planning that focuses on the handling of extremes.

Collaborative Interactivity and Integrated Thinking in Brazilian Business Schools Using Cognitive Flexibility Hypertexts: The Panteon Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lima, Marcos; Koehler, Matthew J.; Spiro, Rand J.

2004-01-01

In this article, we discuss how the Harvard Method of case study, Interactive Communication Technologies, and Cognitive Flexibility Theory may contribute to case-based learning about business decision-making. In particular, we are interested in designing learning environments that foster critical thinking, creativity, and reasoning that entertains…

Development of a decision aid for cardiopulmonary resuscitation and invasive mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit employing user-centered design and a wiki platform for rapid prototyping

PubMed Central

Witteman, Holly O.; LeBlanc, Annie; Kryworuchko, Jennifer; Heyland, Daren Keith; Ebell, Mark H.; Blair, Louisa; Tapp, Diane; Dupuis, Audrey; Lavoie-Bérard, Carole-Anne; McGinn, Carrie Anna; Légaré, France; Archambault, Patrick Michel

2018-01-01

Background Upon admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), all patients should discuss their goals of care and express their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g., cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)). Without such discussions, interventions that prolong life at the cost of decreasing its quality may be used without appropriate guidance from patients. Objectives To adapt an existing decision aid about CPR to create a wiki-based decision aid individually adapted to each patient’s risk factors; and to document the use of a wiki platform for this purpose. Methods We conducted three weeks of ethnographic observation in our ICU to observe intensivists and patients discussing goals of care and to identify their needs regarding decision making. We interviewed intensivists individually. Then we conducted three rounds of rapid prototyping involving 15 patients and 11 health professionals. We recorded and analyzed all discussions, interviews and comments, and collected sociodemographic data. Using a wiki, a website that allows multiple users to contribute or edit content, we adapted the decision aid accordingly and added the Good Outcome Following Attempted Resuscitation (GO-FAR) prediction rule calculator. Results We added discussion of invasive mechanical ventilation. The final decision aid comprises values clarification, risks and benefits of CPR and invasive mechanical ventilation, statistics about CPR, and a synthesis section. We added the GO-FAR prediction calculator as an online adjunct to the decision aid. Although three rounds of rapid prototyping simplified the information in the decision aid, 60% (n = 3/5) of the patients involved in the last cycle still did not understand its purpose. Conclusions Wikis and user-centered design can be used to adapt decision aids to users’ needs and local contexts. Our wiki platform allows other centers to adapt our tools, reducing duplication and accelerating scale-up. Physicians need training in shared decision making skills about goals of care and in using the decision aid. A video version of the decision aid could clarify its purpose. PMID:29447297

Systems identification and the adaptive management of waterfowl in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.

2001-01-01

Waterfowl management in the United States is one of the more visible conservation success stories in the United States. It is authorized and supported by appropriate legislative authorities, based on large-scale monitoring programs, and widely accepted by the public. The process is one of only a limited number of large-scale examples of effective collaboration between research and management, integrating scientific information with management in a coherent framework for regulatory decision-making. However, harvest management continues to face some serious technical problems, many of which focus on sequential identification of the resource system in a context of optimal decision-making. The objective of this paper is to provide a theoretical foundation of adaptive harvest management, the approach currently in use in the United States for regulatory decision-making. We lay out the legal and institutional framework for adaptive harvest management and provide a formal description of regulatory decision-making in terms of adaptive optimization. We discuss some technical and institutional challenges in applying adaptive harvest management and focus specifically on methods of estimating resource states for linear resource systems.

The Case for Absolute Ligand Discrimination: Modeling Information Processing and Decision by Immune T Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

François, Paul; Altan-Bonnet, Grégoire

2016-03-01

Some cells have to take decision based on the quality of surroundings ligands, almost irrespective of their quantity, a problem we name "absolute discrimination". An example of absolute discrimination is recognition of not-self by immune T Cells. We show how the problem of absolute discrimination can be solved by a process called "adaptive sorting". We review several implementations of adaptive sorting, as well as its generic properties such as antagonism. We show how kinetic proofreading with negative feedback implement an approximate version of adaptive sorting in the immune context. Finally, we revisit the decision problem at the cell population level, showing how phenotypic variability and feedbacks between population and single cells are crucial for proper decision.

Design and implementation of the standards-based personal intelligent self-management system (PICS).

PubMed

von Bargen, Tobias; Gietzelt, Matthias; Britten, Matthias; Song, Bianying; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Kohlmann, Martin; Marschollek, Michael; Haux, Reinhold

2013-01-01

Against the background of demographic change and a diminishing care workforce there is a growing need for personalized decision support. The aim of this paper is to describe the design and implementation of the standards-based personal intelligent care systems (PICS). PICS makes consistent use of internationally accepted standards such as the Health Level 7 (HL7) Arden syntax for the representation of the decision logic, HL7 Clinical Document Architecture for information representation and is based on a open-source service-oriented architecture framework and a business process management system. Its functionality is exemplified for the application scenario of a patient suffering from congestive heart failure. Several vital signs sensors provide data for the decision support system, and a number of flexible communication channels are available for interaction with patient or caregiver. PICS is a standards-based, open and flexible system enabling personalized decision support. Further development will include the implementation of components on small computers and sensor nodes.

Coping with Uncertainty: Woodpecker Finches (Cactospiza pallida) from an Unpredictable Habitat Are More Flexible than Birds from a Stable Habitat

PubMed Central

Tebbich, Sabine; Teschke, Irmgard

2014-01-01

Behavioural flexibility is thought to be a major factor in evolution. It may facilitate the discovery and exploitation of new resources, which in turn may expose populations to novel selective forces and facilitate adaptive radiation. Darwin's finches are a textbook example of adaptive radiation. They are fast learners and show a range of unusual foraging techniques, probably as a result of their flexibility. In this study we aimed to test whether variability of the environment is correlated with flexibility. We compared woodpecker finches from a dry area (hereafter, Arid Zone), where food availability is variable, with individuals from a cloud forest (hereafter, Scalesia zone) where food abundance is stable. As parameters for flexibility, we measured neophilia and neophobia, which are two aspects of reaction to novelty, reversal learning and problem-solving. We found no differences in performance on a problem-solving task but, in line with our prediction, individuals from the Arid Zone were significantly faster reversal learners and more neophilic than their conspecifics from the Scalesia zone. The latter result supports the notion that environmental variability drives flexibility. In contrast to our prediction, Arid Zone birds were even more neophobic than birds from the Scalesia Zone. The latter result could be the consequence of differences in predation pressure between the two vegetation zones. PMID:24638107

The Sustained Influence of an Error on Future Decision-Making.

PubMed

Schiffler, Björn C; Bengtsson, Sara L; Lundqvist, Daniel

2017-01-01

Post-error slowing (PES) is consistently observed in decision-making tasks after negative feedback. Yet, findings are inconclusive as to whether PES supports performance accuracy. We addressed the role of PES by employing drift diffusion modeling which enabled us to investigate latent processes of reaction times and accuracy on a large-scale dataset (>5,800 participants) of a visual search experiment with emotional face stimuli. In our experiment, post-error trials were characterized by both adaptive and non-adaptive decision processes. An adaptive increase in participants' response threshold was sustained over several trials post-error. Contrarily, an initial decrease in evidence accumulation rate, followed by an increase on the subsequent trials, indicates a momentary distraction of task-relevant attention and resulted in an initial accuracy drop. Higher values of decision threshold and evidence accumulation on the post-error trial were associated with higher accuracy on subsequent trials which further gives credence to these parameters' role in post-error adaptation. Finally, the evidence accumulation rate post-error decreased when the error trial presented angry faces, a finding suggesting that the post-error decision can be influenced by the error context. In conclusion, we demonstrate that error-related response adaptations are multi-component processes that change dynamically over several trials post-error.

Cognitive flexibility in young children: General or task-specific capacity?

PubMed

Deák, Gedeon O; Wiseheart, Melody

2015-10-01

Cognitive flexibility is the ability to adapt to changing tasks or problems. To test whether cognitive flexibility is a coherent cognitive capacity in young children, we tested 3- to 5-year-olds' performance on two forms of task switching, rule-based (Three Dimension Changes Card Sorting, 3DCCS) and inductive (Flexible Induction of Meaning-Animates and Objects, FIM-Ob and FIM-An), as well as tests of response speed, verbal working memory, inhibition, and reasoning. Results suggest that cognitive flexibility is not a globally coherent trait; only the two inductive word-meaning (FIM) tests showed high inter-test coherence. Task- and knowledge-specific factors also determine children's flexibility in a given test. Response speed, vocabulary size, and causal reasoning skills further predicted individual and age differences in flexibility, although they did not have the same predictive relation with all three flexibility tests. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Behavioral flexibility in an invasive bird is independent of other behaviors

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Behavioral flexibility is considered important for a species to adapt to environmental change. However, it is unclear how behavioral flexibility works: it relates to problem solving ability and speed in unpredictable ways, which leaves an open question of whether behavioral flexibility varies with differences in other behaviors. If present, such correlations would mask which behavior causes individuals to vary. I investigated whether behavioral flexibility (reversal learning) performances were linked with other behaviors in great-tailed grackles, an invasive bird. I found that behavioral flexibility did not significantly correlate with neophobia, exploration, risk aversion, persistence, or motor diversity. This suggests that great-tailed grackle performance in behavioral flexibility tasks reflects a distinct source of individual variation. Maintaining multiple distinct sources of individual variation, and particularly variation in behavioral flexibility, may be a mechanism for coping with the diversity of novel elements in their environments and facilitate this species’ invasion success. PMID:27478705

How to Cope with Bias While Adapting for Inclusion in Physical Education and Sports: A Judgment and Decision-Making Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hutzler, Yeshayahu; Bar-Eli, Michael

2013-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe a theoretical model and practice examples of judgment and decision making bias within the context of inclusion in physical education and sports. After presenting the context of adapting for inclusion, the theoretical roots of judgment and decision are described, and are linked to the practice of physical…

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Southwestern DoD Facilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-03

integrating climate change risks into decision priorities. 15. SUBJECT TERMS adaptation, baseline sensitivity, climate change, climate exposure...four bases we found that integrating climate change risks into the current decision matrix, by linking projected risks to current or past impacts...data and decision tools and methods. Bases have some capacity to integrate climate-related information, but they have limited resources to undertake

Defining Victory: Three Case Studies of Strategic Guidance and Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-18

options to formulate guidance? Finally, did the decision makers adequately revisit their decisions in order to adapt to changing situations? The U.S...to leave guidance unchanged in the face of changing political circumstances. Both military and civilian leaders generally discounted the...unpredictable impact of military actions themselves on the strategic goals and therefore failed to adapt to changing situations. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Conclusions Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making. PMID:21214905

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

2011-01-07

No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making.

Design and analysis on thermal adaptive clamping device for PPMgLN crystal used in solid state laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Conglin; Chen, Yongliang; Zhang, Wei

2015-02-01

The quality of clamping device for PPMgLN crystal has a vital influence on the optical property of solid-state laser. It has highly requirements of work stability and environmental adaptation ability, especially the thermal adaptation under high temperature differences. To achieve thermal adaptation, structural stiffness will be unavoidably weakened. How to keep both enough stiffness and thermal adaptation as far as possible is the key design point and also difficult point. In this paper, a kind of flexible thermal release unit which can work permanent under 130+/-10°C is studied. Thermal compensation principle and flexible thermal release theory are applied. Analysis results indicate that this device can effectively decreased the thermal stress of the crystal from 85MPa to 0.66MPa. The results of the vibration resistance test on the optical axis direction of the crystal indicate that the device can provide at least 5.62N to resistant 57.2g impact vibration and 18.5g impact vibration in the side direction, well satisfied the requirements of ability to resistant 6g impact vibration.

Developing Flexible, Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Systems for Multiscale Analysis in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.; Sharma, A.; Byun, K.; Hanson, Z.

2016-12-01

Physically based hydrologic modeling of surface and groundwater resources that can be flexibly and efficiently applied to support water resources policy/planning/management decisions at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales are greatly needed in the Midwest, where stakeholder access to such tools is currently a fundamental barrier to basic climate change assessment and adaptation efforts, and also the co-production of useful products to support detailed decision making. Based on earlier pilot studies in the Pacific Northwest Region, we are currently assembling a suite of end-to-end tools and resources to support various kinds of water resources planning and management applications across the region. One of the key aspects of these integrated tools is that the user community can access gridded products at any point along the end-to-end chain of models, looking backwards in time about 100 years (1915-2015), and forwards in time about 85 years using CMIP5 climate model projections. The integrated model is composed of historical and projected future meteorological data based on station observations and statistical and dynamically downscaled climate model output respectively. These gridded meteorological data sets serve as forcing data for the macro-scale VIC hydrologic model implemented over the Midwest at 1/16 degree resolution. High-resolution climate model (4km WRF) output provides inputs for the analyses of urban impacts, hydrologic extremes, agricultural impacts, and impacts to the Great Lakes. Groundwater recharge estimated by the surface water model provides input data for fine-scale and macro-scale groundwater models needed for specific applications. To highlight the multi-scale use of the integrated models in support of co-production of scientific information for decision making, we briefly describe three current case studies addressing different spatial scales of analysis: 1) Effects of climate change on the water balance of the Great Lakes, 2) Future hydropower resources in the St. Joseph River basin, 3) Effects of climate change on carbon cycling in small lakes in the Northern Highland Lakes District.

Keep It Flexible: Driving Macromolecular Rotary Motions in Atomistic Simulations with GROMACS

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

We describe a versatile method to enforce the rotation of subsets of atoms, e.g., a protein subunit, in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. In particular, we introduce a “flexible axis” technique that allows realistic flexible adaptions of both the rotary subunit as well as the local rotation axis during the simulation. A variety of useful rotation potentials were implemented for the GROMACS 4.5 MD package. Application to the molecular motor F1-ATP synthase demonstrates the advantages of the flexible axis approach over the established fixed axis rotation technique. PMID:21566696

Strategic control in decision-making under uncertainty.

PubMed

Venkatraman, Vinod; Huettel, Scott A

2012-04-01

Complex economic decisions - whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget - often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and flexibly match behavior to changes in the environment. In recent years, substantial research has implicated the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) in the flexible control of behavior. However, nearly all such evidence comes from paradigms involving executive function or response selection, not complex decision-making. Here, we review evidence that demonstrates that the dmPFC contributes to strategic control in complex decision-making. This region contains a functional topography such that the posterior dmPFC supports response-related control, whereas the anterior dmPFC supports strategic control. Activation in the anterior dmPFC signals changes in how a decision problem is represented, which in turn can shape computational processes elsewhere in the brain. Based on these findings, we argue for both generalized contributions of the dmPFC to cognitive control, and specific computational roles for its subregions depending upon the task demands and context. We also contend that these strategic considerations are likely to be critical for decision-making in other domains, including interpersonal interactions in social settings. © 2012 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2012 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Strategic Control in Decision Making under Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Venkatraman, Vinod; Huettel, Scott

2012-01-01

Complex economic decisions – whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget – often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, to evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and to flexibly match behavior to changes in the environment. In recent years, substantial research implicates the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) in the flexible control of behavior. However, nearly all such evidence comes from paradigms involving executive function or response selection, not complex decision making. Here, we review evidence that demonstrates that the dmPFC contributes to strategic control in complex decision making. This region contains a functional topography such that the posterior dmPFC supports response-related control while the anterior dmPFC supports strategic control. Activation in the anterior dmPFC signals changes in how a decision problem is represented, which in turn can shape computational processes elsewhere in the brain. Based on these findings, we argue both for generalized contributions of the dmPFC to cognitive control, and for specific computational roles for its subregions depending upon the task demands and context. We also contend that these strategic considerations are also likely to be critical for decision making in other domains, including interpersonal interactions in social settings. PMID:22487037

Affective and cognitive mechanisms of risky decision making.

PubMed

Shimp, Kristy G; Mitchell, Marci R; Beas, B Sofia; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

2015-01-01

The ability to make advantageous decisions under circumstances in which there is a risk of adverse consequences is an important component of adaptive behavior; however, extremes in risk taking (either high or low) can be maladaptive and are characteristic of a number of neuropsychiatric disorders. To better understand the contributions of various affective and cognitive factors to risky decision making, cohorts of male Long-Evans rats were trained in a "Risky Decision making Task" (RDT), in which they made discrete trial choices between a small, "safe" food reward and a large, "risky" food reward accompanied by varying probabilities of footshock. Experiment 1 evaluated the relative contributions of the affective stimuli (i.e., punishment vs. reward) to RDT performance by parametrically varying the magnitudes of the footshock and large reward. Varying the shock magnitude had a significant impact on choice of the large, "risky" reward, such that greater magnitudes were associated with reduced choice of the large reward. In contrast, varying the large, "risky" reward magnitude had minimal influence on reward choice. Experiment 2 compared individual variability in RDT performance with performance in an attentional set shifting task (assessing cognitive flexibility), a delayed response task (assessing working memory), and a delay discounting task (assessing impulsive choice). Rats characterized as risk averse in the RDT made more perseverative errors on the set shifting task than did their risk taking counterparts, whereas RDT performance was not related to working memory abilities or impulsive choice. In addition, rats that showed greater delay discounting (greater impulsive choice) showed corresponding poorer performance in the working memory task. Together, these results suggest that reward-related decision making under risk of punishment is more strongly influenced by the punishment than by the reward, and that risky and impulsive decision making are associated with distinct components of executive function. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Affective and cognitive mechanisms of risky decision making

PubMed Central

Shimp, Kristy G.; Mitchell, Marci R.; Beas, B. Sofia; Bizon, Jennifer L.; Setlow, Barry

2014-01-01

The ability to make advantageous decisions under circumstances in which there is a risk of adverse consequences is an important component of adaptive behavior; however, extremes in risk taking (either high or low) can be maladaptive and are characteristic of a number of neuropsychiatric disorders. To better understand the contributions of various affective and cognitive factors to risky decision making, cohorts of male Long-Evans rats were trained in a “Risky Decision making Task” (RDT), in which they made discrete trial choices between a small, “safe” food reward and a large, “risky” food reward accompanied by varying probabilities of footshock. Experiment 1 evaluated the relative contributions of the affective stimuli (i.e., punishment vs. reward) to RDT performance by parametrically varying the magnitudes of the footshock and large reward. Varying the shock magnitude had a significant impact on choice of the large, “risky” reward, such that greater magnitudes were associated with reduced choice of the large reward. In contrast, varying the large, “risky” reward magnitude had minimal influence on reward choice. Experiment 2 compared individual variability in RDT performance with performance in an attentional set shifting task (assessing cognitive flexibility), a delayed response task (assessing working memory), and a delay discounting task (assessing impulsive choice). Rats characterized as risk averse in the RDT made more perseverative errors on the set shifting task than did their risk taking counterparts, whereas RDT performance was not related to working memory abilities or impulsive choice. In addition, rats that showed greater delay discounting (greater impulsive choice) showed corresponding poorer performance in the working memory task. Together, these results suggest that reward-related decision making under risk of punishment is more strongly influenced by the punishment than by the reward, and that risky and impulsive decision making are associated with distinct components of executive function. PMID:24642448

The Mechanism by Which Interpersonal Coping Flexibility Influences Self-Esteem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gan, Yiqun; Liu, Jun

2012-01-01

The objectives of the present study were to conceptualize interpersonal coping flexibility and to explore how it influences personal adaptation. Two hundred sixty two university students were classified based on their responses to prompts about their degree of prioritizing harmony and the number of coping strategies they employed when dealing with…

Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

2017-12-01

Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

PubMed

Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

2013-01-15

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Book review: Decision making in natural resource management: A structured adaptive approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuller, Angela K.

2014-01-01

No abstract available.Book information: Decision Making in Natural Resource Management: A Structured Adaptive Approach. Michael J. Conroy and James T. Peterson, 2013. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK. 456 pp. $99.95 paperback. ISBN: 978-0-470-67174-0.

Academic Decision Making: Faculty Appointments and Reappointments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Renner, K. Edward

1987-01-01

The rapidly rising costs of the academic salary budget and the lack of flexibility for making new academic appointments or for reallocating resources to new and emerging educational demands are discussed. Personnel decisions made in the Faculty of Arts and Science at Dalhousie University are described. (MLW)

An Approach to Automated Fusion System Design and Adaptation

PubMed Central

Fritze, Alexander; Mönks, Uwe; Holst, Christoph-Alexander; Lohweg, Volker

2017-01-01

Industrial applications are in transition towards modular and flexible architectures that are capable of self-configuration and -optimisation. This is due to the demand of mass customisation and the increasing complexity of industrial systems. The conversion to modular systems is related to challenges in all disciplines. Consequently, diverse tasks such as information processing, extensive networking, or system monitoring using sensor and information fusion systems need to be reconsidered. The focus of this contribution is on distributed sensor and information fusion systems for system monitoring, which must reflect the increasing flexibility of fusion systems. This contribution thus proposes an approach, which relies on a network of self-descriptive intelligent sensor nodes, for the automatic design and update of sensor and information fusion systems. This article encompasses the fusion system configuration and adaptation as well as communication aspects. Manual interaction with the flexibly changing system is reduced to a minimum. PMID:28300762

An Approach to Automated Fusion System Design and Adaptation.

PubMed

Fritze, Alexander; Mönks, Uwe; Holst, Christoph-Alexander; Lohweg, Volker

2017-03-16

Industrial applications are in transition towards modular and flexible architectures that are capable of self-configuration and -optimisation. This is due to the demand of mass customisation and the increasing complexity of industrial systems. The conversion to modular systems is related to challenges in all disciplines. Consequently, diverse tasks such as information processing, extensive networking, or system monitoring using sensor and information fusion systems need to be reconsidered. The focus of this contribution is on distributed sensor and information fusion systems for system monitoring, which must reflect the increasing flexibility of fusion systems. This contribution thus proposes an approach, which relies on a network of self-descriptive intelligent sensor nodes, for the automatic design and update of sensor and information fusion systems. This article encompasses the fusion system configuration and adaptation as well as communication aspects. Manual interaction with the flexibly changing system is reduced to a minimum.

Flexible Piezoelectric Sensor-Based Gait Recognition.

PubMed

Cha, Youngsu; Kim, Hojoon; Kim, Doik

2018-02-05

Most motion recognition research has required tight-fitting suits for precise sensing. However, tight-suit systems have difficulty adapting to real applications, because people normally wear loose clothes. In this paper, we propose a gait recognition system with flexible piezoelectric sensors in loose clothing. The gait recognition system does not directly sense lower-body angles. It does, however, detect the transition between standing and walking. Specifically, we use the signals from the flexible sensors attached to the knee and hip parts on loose pants. We detect the periodic motion component using the discrete time Fourier series from the signal during walking. We adapt the gait detection method to a real-time patient motion and posture monitoring system. In the monitoring system, the gait recognition operates well. Finally, we test the gait recognition system with 10 subjects, for which the proposed system successfully detects walking with a success rate over 93 %.

Development and design of flexible Fowler flaps for an adaptive wing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monner, Hans P.; Hanselka, Holger; Breitbach, Elmar J.

1998-06-01

Civil transport airplanes fly with fixed geometry wings optimized only for one design point described by altitude, Mach number and airplane weight. These parameters vary continuously during flight, to which means the wing geometry seldom is optimal. According to aerodynamic investigations a chordwide variation of the wing camber leads to improvements in operational flexibility, buffet boundaries and performance resulting in reduction of fuel consumption. A spanwise differential camber variation allows to gain control over spanwise lift distributions reducing wing root bending moments. This paper describes the design of flexible Fowler flaps for an adaptive wing to be used in civil transport aircraft that allows both a chordwise as well as spanwise differential camber variation during flight. Since both lower and upper skins are flexed by active ribs, the camber variation is achieved with a smooth contour and without any additional gaps.

Open building and flexibility in healthcare: strategies for shaping spaces for social aspects.

PubMed

Capolongo, Stefano; Buffoli, Maddalena; Nachiero, Dario; Tognolo, Chiara; Zanchi, Eleonora; Gola, Marco

2016-01-01

The fast development of technology and medicine influences the functioning of healthcare facilities as health promoter for the society, making the flexibility a fundamental requirement. Among the many ways to ensure adaptability, one that allows change without increasing the building's overall size is the Open Building approach. Starting from the analysis of the State-of-the-Art and many case-studies, eight parameters of evaluation were defined, appraising their relative importance through a weighting system defined with several experts. The resulting evaluation tool establishes in what measure healthcare facilities follow the Open Building principles. The tool is tested to ten case-studies, chosen for their flexible features, in order to determine his effectiveness and to identify projects' weaknesses and strengths. The results suggest that many Open Building's principles are already in use but, only through a good design thinking, it will be possible to guarantee architectures for health adaptable for future social challenges.

Application of the Modular Automated Reconfigurable Assembly System (MARAS) concept to adaptable vision gauging and parts feeding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

By, Andre Bernard; Caron, Ken; Rothenberg, Michael; Sales, Vic

1994-01-01

This paper presents the first phase results of a collaborative effort between university researchers and a flexible assembly systems integrator to implement a comprehensive modular approach to flexible assembly automation. This approach, named MARAS (Modular Automated Reconfigurable Assembly System), has been structured to support multiple levels of modularity in terms of both physical components and system control functions. The initial focus of the MARAS development has been on parts gauging and feeding operations for cylinder lock assembly. This phase is nearing completion and has resulted in the development of a highly configurable system for vision gauging functions on a wide range of small components (2 mm to 100 mm in size). The reconfigurable concepts implemented in this adaptive Vision Gauging Module (VGM) are now being extended to applicable aspects of the singulating, selecting, and orienting functions required for the flexible feeding of similar mechanical components and assemblies.

Catabolic flexibility of mammalian-associated lactobacilli

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Metabolic flexibility may be generally defined as “the capacity for the organism to adapt fuel oxidation to fuel availability”. The metabolic diversification strategies used by individual bacteria vary greatly from the use of novel or acquired enzymes to the use of plasmid-localised genes and transporters. In this review, we describe the ability of lactobacilli to utilise a variety of carbon sources from their current or new environments in order to grow and survive. The genus Lactobacillus now includes more than 150 species, many with adaptive capabilities, broad metabolic capacity and species/strain variance. They are therefore, an informative example of a cell factory capable of adapting to new niches with differing nutritional landscapes. Indeed, lactobacilli naturally colonise and grow in a wide variety of environmental niches which include the roots and foliage of plants, silage, various fermented foods and beverages, the human vagina and the mammalian gastrointestinal tract (GIT; including the mouth, stomach, small intestine and large intestine). Here we primarily describe the metabolic flexibility of some lactobacilli isolated from the mammalian gastrointestinal tract, and we also describe some of the food-associated species with a proven ability to adapt to the GIT. As examples this review concentrates on the following species - Lb. plantarum, Lb. acidophilus, Lb. ruminis, Lb. salivarius, Lb. reuteri and Lb. sakei, to highlight the diversity and inter-relationships between the catabolic nature of species within the genus. PMID:23680304

The intelligent clinical laboratory as a tool to increase cancer care management productivity.

PubMed

Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Safdari, Reza

2014-01-01

Studies of the causes of cancer, early detection, prevention or treatment need accurate, comprehensive, and timely cancer data. The clinical laboratory provides important cancer information needed for physicians which influence clinical decisions regarding treatment, diagnosis and patient monitoring. Poor communication between health care providers and clinical laboratory personnel can lead to medical errors and wrong decisions in providing cancer care. Because of the key impact of laboratory information on cancer diagnosis and treatment the quality of the tests, lab reports, and appropriate lab management are very important. A laboratory information management system (LIMS) can have an important role in diagnosis, fast and effective access to cancer data, decrease redundancy and costs, and facilitate the integration and collection of data from different types of instruments and systems. In spite of significant advantages LIMS is limited by factors such as problems in adaption to new instruments that may change existing work processes. Applications of intelligent software simultaneously with existing information systems, in addition to remove these restrictions, have important benefits including adding additional non-laboratory-generated information to the reports, facilitating decision making, and improving quality and productivity of cancer care services. Laboratory systems must have flexibility to change and have the capability to develop and benefit from intelligent devices. Intelligent laboratory information management systems need to benefit from informatics tools and latest technologies like open sources. The aim of this commentary is to survey application, opportunities and necessity of intelligent clinical laboratory as a tool to increase cancer care management productivity.

Travel: The World's Great Teacher.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Maureen

1994-01-01

Discusses benefits of travel for school library media specialists. Topics addressed include individual awareness of flexibility and adaptability; adapting to and accepting cultural differences; developing better perspectives on our own countries and programs; and sources of information on courses or study tours for university credit that are…

Career Aspirations of Non-Managerial Women: Adjustment and Adaptation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hite, Linda M.; McDonald, Kimberly S.

2003-01-01

Focus group data from 26 nonmanagerial women indicated that they often adapted their career goals due to life circumstances. Family responsibilities, job security, and organizational support systems (e.g., job flexibility, tuition reimbursement, mentoring) influenced career success and satisfaction. (Contains 29 references.) (SK)

Adapting cognitive behavioral therapy for psychosis for case managers: increasing access to services in a community mental health agency.

PubMed

Montesano, Vicki L; Sivec, Harry J; Munetz, Mark R; Pelton, Jeremy R; Turkington, Douglas

2014-03-01

The purpose of this article is twofold: (a) to describe the adaptation of an evidence-based practice and, (b) using a dissemination framework, to describe the process of implementing the practice at a community mental health agency. The authors describe the training concept and dissemination framework of implementing an emerging practice: high-yield cognitive behavioral techniques for psychosis, which is rooted in cognitive behavioral therapy. Thirteen case managers who represented teams from across the agency delivered the adapted practice at a community mental health agency. Implementation required buy in from all stakeholders, communication across disciplines, persistence, and flexibility. It appears that the use of a dissemination framework that is grounded in the literature, yet flexible, eases the process of implementing an adapted practice. Further research focusing on the effectiveness of this approach, along with the impact of implementing a full spectrum of cognitive behavioral therapy services for individuals with persistent psychotic symptoms, based on cognitive behavioral therapy principles, is indicated.

Adaptive Distributed Environment for Procedure Training (ADEPT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Domeshek, Eric; Ong, James; Mohammed, John

2013-01-01

ADEPT (Adaptive Distributed Environment for Procedure Training) is designed to provide more effective, flexible, and portable training for NASA systems controllers. When creating a training scenario, an exercise author can specify a representative rationale structure using the graphical user interface, annotating the results with instructional texts where needed. The author's structure may distinguish between essential and optional parts of the rationale, and may also include "red herrings" - hypotheses that are essential to consider, until evidence and reasoning allow them to be ruled out. The system is built from pre-existing components, including Stottler Henke's SimVentive? instructional simulation authoring tool and runtime. To that, a capability was added to author and exploit explicit control decision rationale representations. ADEPT uses SimVentive's Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG)- based interactive graphic display capability as the basis of the tool for quickly noting aspects of decision rationale in graph form. The ADEPT prototype is built in Java, and will run on any computer using Windows, MacOS, or Linux. No special peripheral equipment is required. The software enables a style of student/ tutor interaction focused on the reasoning behind systems control behavior that better mimics proven Socratic human tutoring behaviors for highly cognitive skills. It supports fast, easy, and convenient authoring of such tutoring behaviors, allowing specification of detailed scenario-specific, but content-sensitive, high-quality tutor hints and feedback. The system places relatively light data-entry demands on the student to enable its rationale-centered discussions, and provides a support mechanism for fostering coherence in the student/ tutor dialog by including focusing, sequencing, and utterance tuning mechanisms intended to better fit tutor hints and feedback into the ongoing context.

Climate-Related Hazards: A Method for Global Assessment of Urban and Rural Population Exposure to Cyclones, Droughts, and Floods

PubMed Central

Christenson, Elizabeth; Elliott, Mark; Banerjee, Ovik; Hamrick, Laura; Bartram, Jamie

2014-01-01

Global climate change (GCC) has led to increased focus on the occurrence of, and preparation for, climate-related extremes and hazards. Population exposure, the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given hazard event(s) in a given period of time, was the outcome for this analysis. Our objectives were to develop a method for estimating the population exposure at the country level to the climate-related hazards cyclone, drought, and flood; develop a method that readily allows the addition of better datasets to an automated model; differentiate population exposure of urban and rural populations; and calculate and present the results of exposure scores and ranking of countries based on the country-wide, urban, and rural population exposures to cyclone, drought, and flood. Gridded global datasets on cyclone, drought and flood occurrence as well as population density were combined and analysis was carried out using ArcGIS. Results presented include global maps of ranked country-level population exposure to cyclone, drought, flood and multiple hazards. Analyses by geography and human development index (HDI) are also included. The results and analyses of this exposure assessment have implications for country-level adaptation. It can also be used to help prioritize aid decisions and allocation of adaptation resources between countries and within a country. This model is designed to allow flexibility in applying cyclone, drought and flood exposure to a range of outcomes and adaptation measures. PMID:24566046

Architecture of next-generation information management systems for digital radiology enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Stephen T. C.; Wang, Huili; Shen, Weimin; Schmidt, Joachim; Chen, George; Dolan, Tom

2000-05-01

Few information systems today offer a clear and flexible means to define and manage the automated part of radiology processes. None of them provide a coherent and scalable architecture that can easily cope with heterogeneity and inevitable local adaptation of applications. Most importantly, they often lack a model that can integrate clinical and administrative information to aid better decisions in managing resources, optimizing operations, and improving productivity. Digital radiology enterprises require cost-effective solutions to deliver information to the right person in the right place and at the right time. We propose a new architecture of image information management systems for digital radiology enterprises. Such a system is based on the emerging technologies in workflow management, distributed object computing, and Java and Web techniques, as well as Philips' domain knowledge in radiology operations. Our design adapts the approach of '4+1' architectural view. In this new architecture, PACS and RIS will become one while the user interaction can be automated by customized workflow process. Clinical service applications are implemented as active components. They can be reasonably substituted by applications of local adaptations and can be multiplied for fault tolerance and load balancing. Furthermore, it will provide powerful query and statistical functions for managing resources and improving productivity in real time. This work will lead to a new direction of image information management in the next millennium. We will illustrate the innovative design with implemented examples of a working prototype.

Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

2018-04-01

Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

Bayesian Decision Support for Adaptive Lung Treatments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McShan, Daniel; Luo, Yi; Schipper, Matt; TenHaken, Randall

2014-03-01

Purpose: A Bayesian Decision Network will be demonstrated to provide clinical decision support for adaptive lung response-driven treatment management based on evidence that physiologic metrics may correlate better with individual patient response than traditional (population-based) dose and volume-based metrics. Further, there is evidence that information obtained during the course of radiation therapy may further improve response predictions. Methods: Clinical factors were gathered for 58 patients including planned mean lung dose, and the bio-markers IL-8 and TGF-β1 obtained prior to treatment and two weeks into treatment along with complication outcomes for these patients. A Bayesian Decision Network was constructed using Netica 5.0.2 from Norsys linking these clinical factors to obtain a prediction of radiation induced lung disese (RILD) complication. A decision node was added to the network to provide a plan adaption recommendation based on the trade-off between the RILD prediction and complexity of replanning. A utility node provides the weighting cost between the competing factors. Results: The decision node predictions were optimized against the data for the 58 cases. With this decision network solution, one can consider the decision result for a new patient with specific findings to obtain a recommendation to adaptively modify the originally planned treatment course. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach allows handling and propagating probabilistic data in a logical and principled manner. Decision networks provide the further ability to provide utility-based trade-offs, reflecting non-medical but practical cost/benefit analysis. The network demonstrated illustrates the basic concept, but many other factors may affect these decisions and work on building better models are being designed and tested. Acknowledgement: Supported by NIH-P01-CA59827

Urban water supply infrastructure planning under predictive groundwater uncertainty: Bayesian updating and flexible design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K.

2017-12-01

Many urban water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from increasing demands from population and economic growth in combination with uncertain water supply, driven by short-term climate variability and long-term climate change. These uncertainties are often exacerbated in groundwater-dependent water systems due to the extra difficulty in measuring groundwater storage, recharge, and sustainable yield. Groundwater models are typically under-parameterized due to the high data requirements for calibration and limited data availability, leading to uncertainty in the models' predictions. We develop an integrated approach to urban water supply planning that combines predictive groundwater uncertainty analysis with adaptive water supply planning using multi-stage decision analysis. This allows us to compare the value of collecting additional groundwater data and reducing predictive uncertainty with the value of using water infrastructure planning that is flexible, modular, and can react quickly in response to unexpected changes in groundwater availability. We apply this approach to a case from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Riyadh relies on fossil groundwater aquifers and desalination for urban use. The main fossil aquifers incur minimal recharge and face depletion as a result of intense withdrawals for urban and agricultural use. As the water table declines and pumping becomes uneconomical, Riyadh will have to build new supply infrastructure, decrease demand, or increase the efficiency of its distribution system. However, poor groundwater characterization has led to severe uncertainty in aquifer parameters such as hydraulic conductivity, and therefore severe uncertainty in how the water table will respond to pumping over time and when these transitions will be necessary: the potential depletion time varies from approximately five years to 100 years. This case is an excellent candidate for flexible planning both because of its severity and the potential for learning: additional information can be collected over time and flexible options exercised in response. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to find optimal policies for using flexibility under different information scenarios. The performance of each strategy is then assessed using a simulation model of Riyadh's water system.

Neophobia is negatively related to reversal learning ability in females of a generalist bird of prey, the Chimango Caracara, Milvago chimango.

PubMed

Guido, Jorgelina María; Biondi, Laura Marina; Vasallo, Aldo Ivan; Muzio, Rubén Nestor

2017-07-01

In an ever-changing environment, the ability to adapt choices to new conditions is essential for daily living and ultimately, for survival. Behavioural flexibility allows animals to maximise survival and reproduction in novel settings by adjusting their behaviour based on specific information and feedback acquired in their current environments. However, a growing body of evidence indicates that an individual's personality type can limit the extent to which the individual might behave flexibly, by influencing the way an individual pays attention to novelty and how much information it collects and stores, which in turn affects the individual's decision-making and learning process. In this study, the behavioural flexibility of a generalist predator, the Chimango Caracara, Milvago chimango, was analysed using the reversal learning paradigm, focusing on the comparison between age classes, and the relation of learning flexibility with a personality trait, the level of neophobia. Due to the low number of male individuals captured, this study was carried out only with female birds. The results showed that age had no significant effect either on the acquisition of a stimulus-reward association, or on the capacity of reversing this previously learned association. Reversal of the response was a harder task for these birds in comparison with the initial acquisition process. The individual's performances in the learning tasks seemed to be uncorrelated with each other, suggesting that they involve different neural mechanisms. Contrary to the general pattern observed in the majority of previous work on personality and cognition in non-human animals, the level of neophobia did not correlate with the initial associative learning performance in both adults and juveniles, yet it showed a significant negative relationship with reversal learning ability, mainly in the regressive phase of this task, for the two age classes. Our results suggest that the predatory and generalist lifestyle of female individuals of M. chimango along with the selective pressures of the environment of the individuals studied might play a critical role in the degree and direction of the linkage between novelty response and learning flexibility observed in this study.

A new spatial multi-criteria decision support tool for site selection for implementation of managed aquifer recharge.

PubMed

Rahman, M Azizur; Rusteberg, Bernd; Gogu, R C; Lobo Ferreira, J P; Sauter, Martin

2012-05-30

This study reports the development of a new spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (SMCDA) software tool for selecting suitable sites for Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) systems. The new SMCDA software tool functions based on the combination of existing multi-criteria evaluation methods with modern decision analysis techniques. More specifically, non-compensatory screening, criteria standardization and weighting, and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) have been combined with Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). This SMCDA tool may be implemented with a wide range of decision maker's preferences. The tool's user-friendly interface helps guide the decision maker through the sequential steps for site selection, those steps namely being constraint mapping, criteria hierarchy, criteria standardization and weighting, and criteria overlay. The tool offers some predetermined default criteria and standard methods to increase the trade-off between ease-of-use and efficiency. Integrated into ArcGIS, the tool has the advantage of using GIS tools for spatial analysis, and herein data may be processed and displayed. The tool is non-site specific, adaptive, and comprehensive, and may be applied to any type of site-selection problem. For demonstrating the robustness of the new tool, a case study was planned and executed at Algarve Region, Portugal. The efficiency of the SMCDA tool in the decision making process for selecting suitable sites for MAR was also demonstrated. Specific aspects of the tool such as built-in default criteria, explicit decision steps, and flexibility in choosing different options were key features, which benefited the study. The new SMCDA tool can be augmented by groundwater flow and transport modeling so as to achieve a more comprehensive approach to the selection process for the best locations of the MAR infiltration basins, as well as the locations of recovery wells and areas of groundwater protection. The new spatial multicriteria analysis tool has already been implemented within the GIS based Gabardine decision support system as an innovative MAR planning tool. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Near-Ideal Xylene Selectivity in Adaptive Molecular Pillar[ n]arene Crystals.

PubMed

Jie, Kecheng; Liu, Ming; Zhou, Yujuan; Little, Marc A; Pulido, Angeles; Chong, Samantha Y; Stephenson, Andrew; Hughes, Ashlea R; Sakakibara, Fumiyasu; Ogoshi, Tomoki; Blanc, Frédéric; Day, Graeme M; Huang, Feihe; Cooper, Andrew I

2018-06-06

The energy-efficient separation of alkylaromatic compounds is a major industrial sustainability challenge. The use of selectively porous extended frameworks, such as zeolites or metal-organic frameworks, is one solution to this problem. Here, we studied a flexible molecular material, perethylated pillar[ n]arene crystals ( n = 5, 6), which can be used to separate C8 alkylaromatic compounds. Pillar[6]arene is shown to separate para-xylene from its structural isomers, meta-xylene and ortho-xylene, with 90% specificity in the solid state. Selectivity is an intrinsic property of the pillar[6]arene host, with the flexible pillar[6]arene cavities adapting during adsorption thus enabling preferential adsorption of para-xylene in the solid state. The flexibility of pillar[6]arene as a solid sorbent is rationalized using molecular conformer searches and crystal structure prediction (CSP) combined with comprehensive characterization by X-ray diffraction and 13 C solid-state NMR spectroscopy. The CSP study, which takes into account the structural variability of pillar[6]arene, breaks new ground in its own right and showcases the feasibility of applying CSP methods to understand and ultimately to predict the behavior of soft, adaptive molecular crystals.

Integral Manifold in System Design with Application to Flexible Link Robot Control

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-06-01

environment. I am very grateful to my advisor . Professor Kokotovic. whose insight and guidance in my research work led me to the beginning of my...MANIFOLD IN SVSTEM DESIGN WITH RPLICATION TT 2Z2 FLEXIBLE LINK ROBO (U) ILLINOIS UNIV AT URBANA DECISION AND CONTROL LAB H C TSENG JUN 98

Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance...

Hybrid Model Predictive Control for Sequential Decision Policies in Adaptive Behavioral Interventions.

PubMed

Dong, Yuwen; Deshpande, Sunil; Rivera, Daniel E; Downs, Danielle S; Savage, Jennifer S

2014-06-01

Control engineering offers a systematic and efficient method to optimize the effectiveness of individually tailored treatment and prevention policies known as adaptive or "just-in-time" behavioral interventions. The nature of these interventions requires assigning dosages at categorical levels, which has been addressed in prior work using Mixed Logical Dynamical (MLD)-based hybrid model predictive control (HMPC) schemes. However, certain requirements of adaptive behavioral interventions that involve sequential decision making have not been comprehensively explored in the literature. This paper presents an extension of the traditional MLD framework for HMPC by representing the requirements of sequential decision policies as mixed-integer linear constraints. This is accomplished with user-specified dosage sequence tables, manipulation of one input at a time, and a switching time strategy for assigning dosages at time intervals less frequent than the measurement sampling interval. A model developed for a gestational weight gain (GWG) intervention is used to illustrate the generation of these sequential decision policies and their effectiveness for implementing adaptive behavioral interventions involving multiple components.

Whole-genome resequencing of Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655 undergoing short-term laboratory evolution in lactate minimal media reveals flexible selection of adaptive mutations

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Short-term laboratory evolution of bacteria followed by genomic sequencing provides insight into the mechanism of adaptive evolution, such as the number of mutations needed for adaptation, genotype-phenotype relationships, and the reproducibility of adaptive outcomes. Results In the present study, we describe the genome sequencing of 11 endpoints of Escherichia coli that underwent 60-day laboratory adaptive evolution under growth rate selection pressure in lactate minimal media. Two to eight mutations were identified per endpoint. Generally, each endpoint acquired mutations to different genes. The most notable exception was an 82 base-pair deletion in the rph-pyrE operon that appeared in 7 of the 11 adapted strains. This mutation conferred an approximately 15% increase to the growth rate when experimentally introduced to the wild-type background and resulted in an approximately 30% increase to growth rate when introduced to a background already harboring two adaptive mutations. Additionally, most endpoints had a mutation in a regulatory gene (crp or relA, for example) or the RNA polymerase. Conclusions The 82 base-pair deletion found in the rph-pyrE operon of many endpoints may function to relieve a pyrimidine biosynthesis defect present in MG1655. In contrast, a variety of regulators acquire mutations in the different endpoints, suggesting flexibility in overcoming regulatory challenges in the adaptation. PMID:19849850

Behavioral flexibility and problem solving in an invasive bird

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Behavioral flexibility is considered an important trait for adapting to environmental change, but it is unclear what it is, how it works, and whether it is a problem solving ability. I investigated behavioral flexibility and problem solving experimentally in great-tailed grackles, an invasive bird species and thus a likely candidate for possessing behavioral flexibility. Grackles demonstrated behavioral flexibility in two contexts, the Aesop’s Fable paradigm and a color association test. Contrary to predictions, behavioral flexibility did not correlate across contexts. Four out of 6 grackles exhibited efficient problem solving abilities, but problem solving efficiency did not appear to be directly linked with behavioral flexibility. Problem solving speed also did not significantly correlate with reversal learning scores, indicating that faster learners were not the most flexible. These results reveal how little we know about behavioral flexibility, and provide an immense opportunity for future research to explore how individuals and species can use behavior to react to changing environments. PMID:27168984

Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krause, Andreas; Golovin, Daniel; Converse, Sarah J.

2015-01-01

Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David R.; McGowan, Conor P.; Daily, Jonathan P.; Nichols, James D.; Sweka, John A.; Lyons, James E.

2013-01-01

Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified.A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa, the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating.We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified.Synthesis and applications. The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes

The Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center synthesis report 2011–15—Projects, products, and science priorities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varela Minder, Elda; Lascurain, Aranzazu R.; McMahon, Gerard

2016-09-28

IntroductionIn 2009, the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar established a network of eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSCs) that, along with the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), would help define and implement the Department's climate adaptation response. The Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) was established at North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, in 2010, under a 5-year cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), to identify and address the regional challenges presented by climate change and variability in the Southeastern United States. All eight regional CSC hosts, including NCSU, were selected through a competitive process.Since its opening, the focus of the SE CSC has been on working with partners in the identification and development of research-based information that can assist managers, including cultural and natural resource managers, in adapting to global change processes, such as climate and land use change, that operate at local to global scales and affect resources important to the DOI mission. The SE CSC was organized to accomplish three goals:Provide co-produced, researched based, actionable science that supports transparent global change adaptation decisions.Convene conversations among decision makers, scientists, and managers to identify key ecosystem adaptation decisions driven by climate and land use change, the values and objectives that will be used to make decisions, and the research-based information needed to assess adaptation options.Build the capacity of natural resource professionals, university faculty, and students to understand and frame natural resource adaptation decisions and develop and use research-based information to make adaptation decisions.This report provides an overview of the SE CSC and the projects developed by the SE CSC since its inception. An important goal of this report is to provide a framework for understanding the evolution of the SE CSC science agenda, which has evolved over the first 5 years of the Center’s operation.

Decomposing Bias in Different Types of Simple Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Corey N.; Poldrack, Russell A.

2014-01-01

The ability to adjust bias, or preference for an option, allows for great behavioral flexibility. Decision bias is also important for understanding cognition as it can provide useful information about underlying cognitive processes. Previous work suggests that bias can be adjusted in 2 primary ways: by adjusting how the stimulus under…

Conflict between Place and Response Navigation Strategies: Effects on Vicarious Trial and Error (VTE) Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidt, Brandy; Papale, Andrew; Redish, A. David; Markus, Etan J.

2013-01-01

Navigation can be accomplished through multiple decision-making strategies, using different information-processing computations. A well-studied dichotomy in these decision-making strategies compares hippocampal-dependent "place" and dorsal-lateral striatal dependent "response" strategies. A place strategy depends on the ability to flexibly respond…

Flexibility of Household Structure: Child Fostering Decisions in Burkina Faso

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akresh, Richard

2009-01-01

Using data I collected in Africa, this paper examines a household's decision to adjust its size through child fostering, an institution where biological parents temporarily send children to live with other families. Households experiencing negative idiosyncratic income shocks, child gender imbalances, located further from primary schools, or with…

Selected Legal Considerations Bearing upon Alternative Salary Plans for Teachers. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Reilly, Robert C.

Although employment decisions must be in harmony with existing case laws and statutes, such decisions allow for more flexibility than is sometimes supposed. Increasingly, state legislators and other public officials (including Secretary of Education T. H. Bell and Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander) are working to establish differentiated pay…

Linking LEGO and Algebra

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Özgün-Koca, S. Asli; Edwards, Thomas G.; Chelst, Kenneth R.

2015-01-01

In mathematics, students should represent, model, and work with such real-world situations as those found in the physical world, the public policy realm, and society (CCSSI 2010). Additionally, students need to make decisions and be flexible enough to improve their decisions after analyzing realistic situations. The LEGO® Pets activity does just…

Current Issues in Reductions-in-Force.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caplan, Gerald A.

The practitioner advising a school board in connection with a reduction in force can appreciate that the board has great flexibility in implementing its decision. As long as the board's actions are not arbitrary, capricious, or pretextual, and they afford minimal due process protections to tenured teachers, the board's decisions will withstand…

A Decision-Oriented Investigation of Air Force Civil Engineering’s Operations Branch and the Implications for a Decision Support System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-01

information when making a decision [ Szilagyi and Wallace , 1983:3201." Driver and Mock used cognitive complexity ideas to develop this two dimensional...flexible AMOUNT OF INFORMATION USED High hierarchic integrative Figure 6. Cognitive Complexity Model ( Szilagyi and Wallace , 1983:321) Decisive Style. The...large amount of inform- ation. However, he processes this information with a multiple focus approach ( Szilagyi and Wallace , 1983:320-321). 26 McKenney

"Unwalling" the Classroom: Teacher Reaction and Adaptation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deed, Craig; Lesko, Thomas

2015-01-01

Modern open school architecture abstractly expresses ideas about choice, flexibility and autonomy. While open spaces express and authorise different teaching practice, these versions of school and classrooms present challenges to teaching routines and practice. This paper examines how teachers adapt as they move into new school buildings designed…

Health risks of climate change: an assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies.

PubMed

Wardekker, J Arjan; de Jong, Arie; van Bree, Leendert; Turkenburg, Wim C; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P

2012-09-19

Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system's and society's capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are most appropriate. For climate related health effects for which rough risk estimates are available, 'robust decision-making' is recommended. For health effects with limited societal and policy relevance, we recommend focusing on no-regret measures. For highly relevant health effects, precautionary measures can be considered. This study indicated that analysing and characterising uncertainty by means of a typology can be a very useful approach for selection and prioritization of preferred adaptation policies to reduce future climate related health risks.

Architecture of cognitive flexibility revealed by lesion mapping

PubMed Central

Barbey, Aron K.; Colom, Roberto; Grafman, Jordan

2013-01-01

Neuroscience has made remarkable progress in understanding the architecture of human intelligence, identifying a distributed network of brain structures that support goal-directed, intelligent behavior. However, the neural foundations of cognitive flexibility and adaptive aspects of intellectual function remain to be well characterized. Here, we report a human lesion study (n = 149) that investigates the neural bases of key competencies of cognitive flexibility (i.e., mental flexibility and the fluent generation of new ideas) and systematically examine their contributions to a broad spectrum of cognitive and social processes, including psychometric intelligence (Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale), emotional intelligence (Mayer, Salovey, Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test), and personality (Neuroticism–Extraversion–Openness Personality Inventory). Latent variable modeling was applied to obtain error-free indices of each factor, followed by voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping to elucidate their neural substrates. Regression analyses revealed that latent scores for psychometric intelligence reliably predict latent scores for cognitive flexibility (adjusted R2 = 0.94). Lesion mapping results further indicated that these convergent processes depend on a shared network of frontal, temporal, and parietal regions, including white matter association tracts, which bind these areas into an integrated system. A targeted analysis of the unique variance explained by cognitive flexibility further revealed selective damage within the right superior temporal gyrus, a region known to support insight and the recognition of novel semantic relations. The observed findings motivate an integrative framework for understanding the neural foundations of adaptive behavior, suggesting that core elements of cognitive flexibility emerge from a distributed network of brain regions that support specific competencies for human intelligence. PMID:23721727

A Decision Theoretic Approach to Evaluate Radiation Detection Algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nobles, Mallory A.; Sego, Landon H.; Cooley, Scott K.

2013-07-01

There are a variety of sensor systems deployed at U.S. border crossings and ports of entry that scan for illicit nuclear material. In this work, we develop a framework for comparing the performance of detection algorithms that interpret the output of these scans and determine when secondary screening is needed. We optimize each algorithm to minimize its risk, or expected loss. We measure an algorithm’s risk by considering its performance over a sample, the probability distribution of threat sources, and the consequence of detection errors. While it is common to optimize algorithms by fixing one error rate and minimizing another,more » our framework allows one to simultaneously consider multiple types of detection errors. Our framework is flexible and easily adapted to many different assumptions regarding the probability of a vehicle containing illicit material, and the relative consequences of a false positive and false negative errors. Our methods can therefore inform decision makers of the algorithm family and parameter values which best reduce the threat from illicit nuclear material, given their understanding of the environment at any point in time. To illustrate the applicability of our methods, in this paper, we compare the risk from two families of detection algorithms and discuss the policy implications of our results.« less

Maximization of Learning Speed Due to Neuronal Redundancy in Reinforcement Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takiyama, Ken

2016-11-01

Adaptable neural activity contributes to the flexibility of human behavior, which is optimized in situations such as motor learning and decision making. Although learning signals in motor learning and decision making are low-dimensional, neural activity, which is very high dimensional, must be modified to achieve optimal performance based on the low-dimensional signal, resulting in a severe credit-assignment problem. Despite this problem, the human brain contains a vast number of neurons, leaving an open question: what is the functional significance of the huge number of neurons? Here, I address this question by analyzing a redundant neural network with a reinforcement-learning algorithm in which the numbers of neurons and output units are N and M, respectively. Because many combinations of neural activity can generate the same output under the condition of N ≫ M, I refer to the index N - M as neuronal redundancy. Although greater neuronal redundancy makes the credit-assignment problem more severe, I demonstrate that a greater degree of neuronal redundancy facilitates learning speed. Thus, in an apparent contradiction of the credit-assignment problem, I propose the hypothesis that a functional role of a huge number of neurons or a huge degree of neuronal redundancy is to facilitate learning speed.

Creating order from chaos: part I: triage, initial care, and tactical considerations in mass casualty and disaster response.

PubMed

Baker, Michael S

2007-03-01

How do we train for the entire spectrum of potential emergency and crisis scenarios? Will we suddenly face large numbers of combat casualties, an earthquake, a plane crash, an industrial explosion, or a terrorist bombing? The daily routine can suddenly be complicated by large numbers of patients, exceeding the ability to treat in a routine fashion. Disaster events can result in patients with penetrating wounds, burns, blast injuries, chemical contamination, or all of these at once. Some events may disrupt infrastructure or result in loss of essential equipment or key personnel. The chaos of a catastrophic event impedes decision-making and effective treatment of patients. Disasters require a paradigm shift from the application of unlimited resources for the greatest good of each individual patient to the allocation of care, with limited resources, for the greatest good for the greatest number of patients. Training and preparation are essential to remain effective during crises and major catastrophic events. Disaster triage and crisis management represent a tactical art that incorporates clinical skills, didactic information, communication ability, leadership, and decision-making. Planning, rehearsing, and exercising various scenarios encourage the flexibility, adaptability, and innovation required in disaster settings. These skills can bring order to the chaos of overwhelming disaster events.

Vibration and Control of Flexible Rotor Supported by Magnetic Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nonami, Kenzou

1988-01-01

Active vibration control of flexible rotors supported by magnetic bearings is discussed. Using a finite-element method for a mathematical model of the flexible rotor, the eigenvalue problem is formulated taking into account the interaction between a mechanical system of the flexible rotor and an electrical system of the magnetic bearings and the controller. However, for the sake of simplicity, gyroscopic effects are disregarded. It is possible to adapt this formulation to a general flexible rotor-magnetic bearing system. Controllability with and without collocation sensors and actuators located at the same distance along the rotor axis is discussed for the higher order flexible modes of the test rig. In conclusion, it is proposed that it is necessary to add new active control loops for the higher flexible modes even in the case of collocation. Then it is possible to stabilize for the case of uncollocation by means of this method.

The Application of an Adaptive, Web-Based Learning Environment on Oxidation-Reduction Reactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Own, Zangyuan

2006-01-01

The World Wide Web is increasingly being used as a vehicle for flexible learning, where learning is seen to be free from time, geographical, and participation constraints. In addition to flexibility, the Web facilitates student-centered approaches, creating a motivating and active learning environment. The purpose of this study is to set up an…

An Experimental Comparison of the Flexibility in the Use of Thinking Styles in Traditional and Hypermedia Learning Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fan, Weiqiao

2012-01-01

The objective of the instructional experiment was to examine if the use of thinking styles is flexible in traditional and hypermedia learning environments, and if a hypermedia learning environment possesses obvious advantages than a traditional environment in adapting to students with different thinking styles. The participant university students…

Strategy generalization across orientation tasks: testing a computational cognitive model.

PubMed

Gunzelmann, Glenn

2008-07-08

Humans use their spatial information processing abilities flexibly to facilitate problem solving and decision making in a variety of tasks. This article explores the question of whether a general strategy can be adapted for performing two different spatial orientation tasks by testing the predictions of a computational cognitive model. Human performance was measured on an orientation task requiring participants to identify the location of a target either on a map (find-on-map) or within an egocentric view of a space (find-in-scene). A general strategy instantiated in a computational cognitive model of the find-on-map task, based on the results from Gunzelmann and Anderson (2006), was adapted to perform both tasks and used to generate performance predictions for a new study. The qualitative fit of the model to the human data supports the view that participants were able to tailor a general strategy to the requirements of particular spatial tasks. The quantitative differences between the predictions of the model and the performance of human participants in the new experiment expose individual differences in sample populations. The model provides a means of accounting for those differences and a framework for understanding how human spatial abilities are applied to naturalistic spatial tasks that involve reasoning with maps. 2008 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Incorporating Natural Capital into Climate Adaptation Planning: Exploring the Role of Habitat in Increasing Coastal Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wedding, L.; Hartge, E. H.; Guannel, G.; Melius, M.; Reiter, S. M.; Ruckelshaus, M.; Guerry, A.; Caldwell, M.

2014-12-01

To support decision-makers in their efforts to manage coastal resources in a changing climate the Natural Capital Project and the Center for Ocean Solutions are engaging in, informing, and helping to shape climate adaptation planning at various scales throughout coastal California. Our team is building collaborations with regional planners and local scientific and legal experts to inform local climate adaptation decisions that might minimize the economic and social losses associated with rising seas and more damaging storms. Decision-makers are considering engineered solutions (e.g. seawalls), natural solutions (e.g. dune or marsh restoration), and combinations of the two. To inform decisions about what kinds of solutions might best work in specific locations, we are comparing alternate climate and adaptation scenarios. We will present results from our use of the InVEST ecosystem service models in Sonoma County, with an initial focus on protection from coastal hazards due to erosion and inundation. By strategically choosing adaptation alternatives, communities and agencies can work to protect people and property while also protecting or restoring dwindling critical habitat and the full suite of benefits those habitats provide to people.

Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

2009-01-01

Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: Science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, C.T.; Lonsdorf, E.V.; Knutson, M.G.; Laskowski, H.P.; Lor, S.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS. ?? 2010 .

Decision tables and rule engines in organ allocation systems for optimal transparency and flexibility.

PubMed

Schaafsma, Murk; van der Deijl, Wilfred; Smits, Jacqueline M; Rahmel, Axel O; de Vries Robbé, Pieter F; Hoitsma, Andries J

2011-05-01

Organ allocation systems have become complex and difficult to comprehend. We introduced decision tables to specify the rules of allocation systems for different organs. A rule engine with decision tables as input was tested for the Kidney Allocation System (ETKAS). We compared this rule engine with the currently used ETKAS by running 11,000 historical match runs and by running the rule engine in parallel with the ETKAS on our allocation system. Decision tables were easy to implement and successful in verifying correctness, completeness, and consistency. The outcomes of the 11,000 historical matches in the rule engine and the ETKAS were exactly the same. Running the rule engine simultaneously in parallel and in real time with the ETKAS also produced no differences. Specifying organ allocation rules in decision tables is already a great step forward in enhancing the clarity of the systems. Yet, using these tables as rule engine input for matches optimizes the flexibility, simplicity and clarity of the whole process, from specification to the performed matches, and in addition this new method allows well controlled simulations. © 2011 The Authors. Transplant International © 2011 European Society for Organ Transplantation.

Integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services concepts to improve natural resource management: Challenges and opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S.; Boyd, James W.; Macauley, Molly K.; Scarlett, Lynn; Shapiro, Carl D.; Williams, Byron K.

2018-05-07

Executive Summary—OverviewNatural resource managers must make decisions that affect broad-scale ecosystem processes involving large spatial areas, complex biophysical interactions, numerous competing stakeholder interests, and highly uncertain outcomes. Natural and social science information and analyses are widely recognized as important for informing effective management. Chief among the systematic approaches for improving the integration of science into natural resource management are two emergent science concepts, adaptive management and ecosystem services. Adaptive management (also referred to as “adaptive decision making”) is a deliberate process of learning by doing that focuses on reducing uncertainties about management outcomes and system responses to improve management over time. Ecosystem services is a conceptual framework that refers to the attributes and outputs of ecosystems (and their components and functions) that have value for humans.This report explores how ecosystem services can be moved from concept into practice through connection to a decision framework—adaptive management—that accounts for inherent uncertainties. Simultaneously, the report examines the value of incorporating ecosystem services framing and concepts into adaptive management efforts.Adaptive management and ecosystem services analyses have not typically been used jointly in decision making. However, as frameworks, they have a natural—but to date underexplored—affinity. Both are policy and decision oriented in that they attempt to represent the consequences of resource management choices on outcomes of interest to stakeholders. Both adaptive management and ecosystem services analysis take an empirical approach to the analysis of ecological systems. This systems orientation is a byproduct of the fact that natural resource actions affect ecosystems—and corresponding societal outcomes—often across large geographic scales. Moreover, because both frameworks focus on resource systems, both must confront the analytical challenges of systems modeling—in terms of complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty.Given this affinity, the integration of ecosystem services analysis and adaptive management poses few conceptual hurdles. In this report, we synthesize discussions from two workshops that considered ways in which adaptive management approaches and ecosystem service concepts may be complementary, such that integrating them into a common framework may lead to improved natural resource management outcomes. Although the literature on adaptive management and ecosystem services is vast and growing, the report focuses specifically on the integration of these two concepts rather than aiming to provide new definitions or an indepth review or primer of the concepts individually.Key issues considered include the bidirectional links between adaptive decision making and ecosystem services, as well as the potential benefits and inevitable challenges arising in the development and use of an integrated framework. Specifically, the workshops addressed the following questions:How can application of ecosystem service analysis within an adaptive decision process improve the outcomes of management and advance understanding of ecosystem service identification, production, and valuation?How can these concepts be integrated in concept and practice?What are the constraints and challenges to integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services?And, should the integration of these concepts be moved forward to wider application—and if so, how?

Grid flexibility: The quiet revolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hsieh, Eric; Anderson, Robert

The concept of flexibility describes the capability of the power system to maintain balance between generation and load under uncertainty. While the grid has historically incorporated flexibility-specific resources such as pumped hydro to complement nuclear generators, modern trends and the increased deployment of variable energy resources (VERs) are increasing the need for a transparent market value of flexibility. A review of analyses, docket filings, tariffs, and business practice manuals from the past several years finds substantial flexibility-related activity. These activities are categorized as market and financial structures; incorporation of new operations or technology; and legal or procedural reforms. The cumulativemore » outcome of these incremental changes will be a major transformation to power systems that can rapidly adapt to new needs, technologies, and conditions.« less

Grid flexibility: The quiet revolution

DOE PAGES

Hsieh, Eric; Anderson, Robert

2017-02-16

The concept of flexibility describes the capability of the power system to maintain balance between generation and load under uncertainty. While the grid has historically incorporated flexibility-specific resources such as pumped hydro to complement nuclear generators, modern trends and the increased deployment of variable energy resources (VERs) are increasing the need for a transparent market value of flexibility. A review of analyses, docket filings, tariffs, and business practice manuals from the past several years finds substantial flexibility-related activity. These activities are categorized as market and financial structures; incorporation of new operations or technology; and legal or procedural reforms. The cumulativemore » outcome of these incremental changes will be a major transformation to power systems that can rapidly adapt to new needs, technologies, and conditions.« less

Adapting American Policymaking to Overcome American Exceptionalism

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-13

policies of the United States were due a portion of blame for motivating the attacks of 9/11. Whether due to self - referentialism , cultural centrism, or...for. However, a deep inward look toward the foreign policy framing and decision making process is necessary to adapt that policy and address the tension...inward look toward the foreign policy framing and decision making process is necessary to adapt that policy and address the tension between U.S

Timing of breeding in variable environments: tropical birds as model systems.

PubMed

Hau, M

2001-09-01

Animals need to adjust reproductive decisions to environmental seasonality. In contrast to species from the well-studied temperate zones, little is known for tropical birds about the environmental cues that stimulate reproductive activity and the physiological mechanisms that regulate reproduction. I am investigating the environmental and endocrine mechanisms that underlie the timing of reproduction in spotted antbirds from the near-equatorial Panamanian rainforest and in small ground finches from the equatorial arid Galápagos islands. Spotted antbirds live in a fairly predictable seasonal environment and show regular changes in gonad sizes and some reproductive hormones. Despite the small annual variation in photoperiod close to the equator, these birds can measure slight photoperiodic increases and use it to initiate reproductive activity. Spotted antbirds also respond to seasonal changes in food availability, which allows them to flexibly adjust gonad growth to environmental conditions. Testosterone is involved in regulating song and aggressive behavior in these year-round territorial birds, although it can remain at low plasma levels throughout the year. In contrast, small ground finches exposed to a rather unpredictable climate on Galápagos appear to grow their gonads whenever heavy rains fall and have regressed gonads during other times of the year. The lack of a physiological preparation for the breeding season and their response to short-term cues related to rainfall indicate a striking flexibility in the regulation of breeding in small ground finches. I suggest that tropical birds can serve as model systems to study the physiological adaptations to different environments. Unraveling the neuroendocrine mechanisms behind the flexibility in reproductive timing will clarify whether differences found between temperate and tropical birds represent variations of the same basic mechanism or instead reflect a fundamental divergence in physiological control systems. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

Mulit Criteria - Application on Climate Change Adaptation and Biofuel Cultivation on Contaminated Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson-Sköld, Yvonne; Suer, Pascal; Bergman, Ramona; Helgesson, Helena

2010-05-01

A decision support tool/method has been developed to systematically include sustainability at an early stage in planning issues. Sustainability was subdivided into human health, environmental impacts, resources, and social and economic impacts. Health, environmental and resources impacts were based on the Swedish environmental objectives, life cycle assessment (LCA) impact categories, and contaminated soil guidelines. The resulting impact indicators were climate change - global warming potential, large scale and local air quality, water and soil quality, landscape, energy, materials, wellbeing/welfare, direct financial costs, social economic aspects, and flexi-bility. The method offers an iterative discussion framework that is systematic, condensed and yet a simplistic way of describing consequences of climate change and related adaptation measures including economic, social and environmental aspects. Application of the tool to biofuel cultivation on contaminated soil indicated that traditional soil remediation may have higher social and economical benefits but be less suitable from a health, environment, and resources perspective. The tool has further been applied in municipalities on climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Re-sults from the application in tree municipalities will be presented: Gothenburg City, Lidköping and Arvika. In Gothenburg and Lidköping the major impact of climate change is increase in sea water level (North Sea and Lake Vänern respectively) combined with extreme weather conditions. According to regional climate change scenarios Arvika is located in one of the worst affected areas in Sweden with respect to increase of intensive rainfall and extreme flows. The adaptation measures investigated at the three locations include doing nothing, different constructions and planning. The results are based on previous risk identification investigations, flood and land slide maps and interviews with civil servants in the three municipalities.

Mini All-purpose Satellite Control Center (MASCC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaouche, Gerard

1994-01-01

A new generation of Mini All-purpose Satellite Control Centers (MASCC) has been developed by CNES (F). They turn out to be easily adaptable to different kinds of satellites, both Low Earth Orbital or Geostationary. The features of MASCC allow both standard satellite control activities, and checking of passengers experiments hosted on a space platform. In the different environments in which it may be used, MASCC provides standard broadcasting of telemetry parameters on animated synoptics (curves, bar graphs, alphanumeric displays, ...), which turns out to be a very useful and ergonomic medium for operational teams or satellite specialists. Special care has been taken during the MASCC development about two points: - automation of all routine tasks, allowing automated operation, and limiting human commitment to system supervision and decision making, - software adaptability. To reach these two main objectives, the MASCC design provides:(1) a simple, robust and flexible hardware architecture, based on powerful distributed workstations; and (2) a table-driven software architecture, easily adapted to various operational needs. Satellite characteristics are described in a central Data Base. Hence, the processing of telemetry and commands is largely independent from the satellite itself. In order to validate these capabilities, the MASCC has been customized to several types of satellites and orbital platforms: (1) SPOT4, the French new generation of remote sensing satellites; (2) TELECOM2, the French geostationary TV and telecommunication satellite; and (3) MIR, the Russian orbital platform. MASCC development has been completed by the third quarter of 1993. This paper will provide first a description of the MASCC basic functions, of its hardware and software design. It will then detail the increased automation capability, along with the easy adaptation of the MASCC to new satellites with minimal software modifications.

Shape Morphing Adaptive Radiator Technology (SMART) for Variable Heat Rejection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erickson, Lisa

2016-01-01

The proposed technology leverages the temperature dependent phase change of shape memory alloys (SMAs) to drive the shape of a flexible radiator panel. The opening/closing of the radiator panel, as a function of temperature, passively adapts the radiator's rate of heat rejection in response to a vehicle's needs.

Guide Book for Curriculum Development and Adaptation. Draft.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Bangkok (Thailand). Principal Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific.

This guide was developed as a cooperative initiative by UNESCO member countries to provide information about the process of development and adaptation of a flexible, competency-based curriculum, especially in vocational education. The guidebook outlines an exemplar process of education organized in 11 stages of design and development based on…

Is Adaptation to Task Complexity Really Beneficial for Performance?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pieschl, Stephanie; Stahl, Elmar; Murray, Tom; Bromme, Rainer

2012-01-01

Theories of self-regulated learning assume that learners flexibly adapt their learning process to external task demands and that this is positively related to performance. In this study, university students (n = 119) solved three tasks that greatly differed in complexity. Their learning processes were captured in detail by task-specific…

Front-line ordering clinicians: matching workforce to workload.

PubMed

Fieldston, Evan S; Zaoutis, Lisa B; Hicks, Patricia J; Kolb, Susan; Sladek, Erin; Geiger, Debra; Agosto, Paula M; Boswinkel, Jan P; Bell, Louis M

2014-07-01

Matching workforce to workload is particularly important in healthcare delivery, where an excess of workload for the available workforce may negatively impact processes and outcomes of patient care and resident learning. Hospitals currently lack a means to measure and match dynamic workload and workforce factors. This article describes our work to develop and obtain consensus for use of an objective tool to dynamically match the front-line ordering clinician (FLOC) workforce to clinical workload in a variety of inpatient settings. We undertook development of a tool to represent hospital workload and workforce based on literature reviews, discussions with clinical leadership, and repeated validation sessions. We met with physicians and nurses from every clinical care area of our large, urban children's hospital at least twice. We successfully created a tool in a matrix format that is objective and flexible and can be applied to a variety of settings. We presented the tool in 14 hospital divisions and received widespread acceptance among physician, nursing, and administrative leadership. The hospital uses the tool to identify gaps in FLOC coverage and guide staffing decisions. Hospitals can better match workload to workforce if they can define and measure these elements. The Care Model Matrix is a flexible, objective tool that quantifies the multidimensional aspects of workload and workforce. The tool, which uses multiple variables that are easily modifiable, can be adapted to a variety of settings. © 2014 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Anatomy and computational modeling of networks underlying cognitive-emotional interaction.

PubMed

John, Yohan J; Bullock, Daniel; Zikopoulos, Basilis; Barbas, Helen

2013-01-01

The classical dichotomy between cognition and emotion equated the first with rationality or logic and the second with irrational behaviors. The idea that cognition and emotion are separable, antagonistic forces competing for dominance of mind has been hard to displace despite abundant evidence to the contrary. For instance, it is now known that a pathological absence of emotion leads to profound impairment of decision making. Behavioral observations of this kind are corroborated at the mechanistic level: neuroanatomical studies reveal that brain areas typically described as underlying either cognitive or emotional processes are linked in ways that imply complex interactions that do not resemble a simple mutual antagonism. Instead, physiological studies and network simulations suggest that top-down signals from prefrontal cortex realize "cognitive control" in part by either suppressing or promoting emotional responses controlled by the amygdala, in a way that facilitates adaptation to changing task demands. Behavioral, anatomical, and physiological data suggest that emotion and cognition are equal partners in enabling a continuum or matrix of flexible behaviors that are subserved by multiple brain regions acting in concert. Here we focus on neuroanatomical data that highlight circuitry that structures cognitive-emotional interactions by directly or indirectly linking prefrontal areas with the amygdala. We also present an initial computational circuit model, based on anatomical, physiological, and behavioral data to explicitly frame the learning and performance mechanisms by which cognition and emotion interact to achieve flexible behavior.

Different profiles of decision making and physiology under varying levels of stress in trained military personnel.

PubMed

Gamble, Katherine R; Vettel, Jean M; Patton, Debra J; Eddy, Marianna D; Caroline Davis, F; Garcia, Javier O; Spangler, Derek P; Thayer, Julian F; Brooks, Justin R

2018-03-23

Decision making is one of the most vital processes we use every day, ranging from mundane decisions about what to eat to life-threatening choices such as how to avoid a car collision. Thus, the context in which our decisions are made is critical, and our physiology enables adaptive responses that account for how environmental stress influences our performance. The relationship between stress and decision making can additionally be affected by one's expertise in making decisions in high-threat environments, where experts can develop an adaptive response that mitigates the negative impacts of stress. In the present study, 26 male military personnel made friend/foe discriminations in an environment where we manipulated the level of stress. In the high-stress condition, participants received a shock when they incorrectly shot a friend or missed shooting a foe; in the low-stress condition, participants received a vibration for an incorrect decision. We characterized performance using signal detection theory to investigate whether a participant changed their decision criterion to avoid making an error. Results showed that under high-stress, participants made more false alarms, mistaking friends as foes, and this co-occurred with increased high frequency heart rate variability. Finally, we examined the relationship between decision making and physiology, and found that participants exhibited adaptive behavioral and physiological profiles under different stress levels. We interpret this adaptive profile as a marker of an expert's ingrained training that does not require top down control, suggesting a way that expert training in high-stress environments helps to buffer negative impacts of stress on performance. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Organizational Adaptative Behavior: The Complex Perspective of Individuals-Tasks Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jiang; Sun, Duoyong; Hu, Bin; Zhang, Yu

Organizations with different organizational structures have different organizational behaviors when responding environmental changes. In this paper, we use a computational model to examine organizational adaptation on four dimensions: Agility, Robustness, Resilience, and Survivability. We analyze the dynamics of organizational adaptation by a simulation study from a complex perspective of the interaction between tasks and individuals in a sales enterprise. The simulation studies in different scenarios show that more flexible communication between employees and less hierarchy level with the suitable centralization can improve organizational adaptation.

The Role of Decision Support in Adapting to Climate Change: Findings from Three Place-based Regional Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

This report summarizes the methodologies and findings of three regional assessments and considers the role of decision support in assisting adaptation to climate change. Background. In conjunction with the US Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP’s) National Assessment of ...

Climate change adaptation under uncertainty in the developing world: A case study of sea level rise in Kiribati

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

2011-12-01

Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact in parts of the developing world. At the 2010 meeting of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, industrialized countries agreed in principle to provide US$100 billion per year by 2020 to assist the developing world respond to climate change. This "Green Climate Fund" is a critical step towards addressing the challenge of climate change. However, the policy and discourse on supporting adaptation in the developing world remains highly idealized. For example, the efficacy of "no regrets" adaptation efforts or "mainstreaming" adaptation into decision-making are rarely evaluated in the real world. In this presentation, I will discuss the gap between adaptation theory and practice using a multi-year case study of the cultural, social and scientific obstacles to adapting to sea level rise in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati. Our field research reveals how scientific and institutional uncertainty can limit international efforts to fund adaptation and lead to spiraling costs. Scientific uncertainty about hyper-local impacts of sea level rise, though irreducible, can at times limit decision-making about adaptation measures, contrary to the notion that "good" decision-making practices can incorporate scientific uncertainty. Efforts to improve institutional capacity must be done carefully, or they risk inadvertently slowing the implementation of adaptation measures and increasing the likelihood of "mal"-adaptation.

Adaptive neural coding: from biological to behavioral decision-making

PubMed Central

Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.; Webb, Ryan

2015-01-01

Empirical decision-making in diverse species deviates from the predictions of normative choice theory, but why such suboptimal behavior occurs is unknown. Here, we propose that deviations from optimality arise from biological decision mechanisms that have evolved to maximize choice performance within intrinsic biophysical constraints. Sensory processing utilizes specific computations such as divisive normalization to maximize information coding in constrained neural circuits, and recent evidence suggests that analogous computations operate in decision-related brain areas. These adaptive computations implement a relative value code that may explain the characteristic context-dependent nature of behavioral violations of classical normative theory. Examining decision-making at the computational level thus provides a crucial link between the architecture of biological decision circuits and the form of empirical choice behavior. PMID:26722666

Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making

PubMed Central

Murty, Vishnu; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

2016-01-01

Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory—specifically item versus associative memory—in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to re-engage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to re-engage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations—such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior. PMID:26999046

A plastic corticostriatal circuit model of adaptation in perceptual decision making

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Pao-Yueh; Lo, Chung-Chuan

2013-01-01

The ability to optimize decisions and adapt them to changing environments is a crucial brain function that increase survivability. Although much has been learned about the neuronal activity in various brain regions that are associated with decision making, and about how the nervous systems may learn to achieve optimization, the underlying neuronal mechanisms of how the nervous systems optimize decision strategies with preference given to speed or accuracy, and how the systems adapt to changes in the environment, remain unclear. Based on extensive empirical observations, we addressed the question by extending a previously described cortico-basal ganglia circuit model of perceptual decisions with the inclusion of a dynamic dopamine (DA) system that modulates spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP). We found that, once an optimal model setting that maximized the reward rate was selected, the same setting automatically optimized decisions across different task environments through dynamic balancing between the facilitating and depressing components of the DA dynamics. Interestingly, other model parameters were also optimal if we considered the reward rate that was weighted by the subject's preferences for speed or accuracy. Specifically, the circuit model favored speed if we increased the phasic DA response to the reward prediction error, whereas the model favored accuracy if we reduced the tonic DA activity or the phasic DA responses to the estimated reward probability. The proposed model provides insight into the roles of different components of DA responses in decision adaptation and optimization in a changing environment. PMID:24339814

Dissociable Changes of Frontal and Parietal Cortices in Inherent Functional Flexibility across the Human Life Span.

PubMed

Yin, Dazhi; Liu, Wenjing; Zeljic, Kristina; Wang, Zhiwei; Lv, Qian; Fan, Mingxia; Cheng, Wenhong; Wang, Zheng

2016-09-28

Extensive evidence suggests that frontoparietal regions can dynamically update their pattern of functional connectivity, supporting cognitive control and adaptive implementation of task demands. However, it is largely unknown whether this flexibly functional reconfiguration is intrinsic and occurs even in the absence of overt tasks. Based on recent advances in dynamics of resting-state functional resonance imaging (fMRI), we propose a probabilistic framework in which dynamic reconfiguration of intrinsic functional connectivity between each brain region and others can be represented as a probability distribution. A complexity measurement (i.e., entropy) was used to quantify functional flexibility, which characterizes heterogeneous connectivity between a particular region and others over time. Following this framework, we identified both functionally flexible and specialized regions over the human life span (112 healthy subjects from 13 to 76 years old). Across brainwide regions, we found regions showing high flexibility mainly in the higher-order association cortex, such as the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC), lateral parietal cortex, and lateral temporal lobules. In contrast, visual, auditory, and sensory areas exhibited low flexibility. Furthermore, we observed that flexibility of the right LPFC improved during maturation and reduced due to normal aging, with the opposite occurring for the left lateral parietal cortex. Our findings reveal dissociable changes of frontal and parietal cortices over the life span in terms of inherent functional flexibility. This study not only provides a new framework to quantify the spatiotemporal behavior of spontaneous brain activity, but also sheds light on the organizational principle behind changes in brain function across the human life span. Recent neuroscientific research has demonstrated that the human capability of adaptive task control is primarily the result of the flexible operation of frontal brain networks. However, it remains unclear whether this flexibly functional reconfiguration is intrinsic and occurs in the absence of an overt task. In this study, we propose a probabilistic framework to quantify the functional flexibility of each brain region using resting-state fMRI. We identify regions showing high flexibility mainly in the higher-order association cortex. In contrast, primary and unimodal visual and sensory areas show low flexibility. On the other hand, our findings reveal dissociable changes of frontal and parietal cortices in terms of inherent functional flexibility over the life span. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/3610060-15$15.00/0.

Flexibility Demonstration Programs: Education Needs To Better Target Program Information. Report to Congressional Requesters.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaul, Marnie S.

The No Child Left Behind Act (NCLBA) established 2 flexibility demonstration programs--State- and Local-Flex--that allow up to 7 states and 80 school districts to redirect up to 100 percent of certain NCLBA programs funds. The General Accounting Office (GAO) was asked to determine factors that affect states' and districts' decisions about whether…

Real option logic for healthcare entrepreneurial growth and survival.

PubMed

Williams, David R; Hammes, Paul H

2007-05-01

Given the increasing market and technological uncertainty of capital investments, healthcare financial executives need to incorporate flexibility into their decision making. Traditional capital budgeting techniques do not take into consideration the need for flexibility, changes in the environment, or actions by management. In response, practitioners from various industries have adopted a new way of looking at capital investments: real options.

Better know when (not) to think twice: how social power impacts prefactual thought.

PubMed

Scholl, Annika; Sassenberg, Kai

2015-02-01

Before approaching situations, individuals frequently imagine "what would happen, if . . . ." Such prefactual thought can promote confidence and facilitate behavior preparation when the upcoming situation can benefit from forethought, but it also delays action. The present research tested how social power predicts prefactual thought when its benefits are clear versus ambiguous. Power enhances flexible behavior adaptation and action tendencies-presumably without much forethought. We therefore proposed that power diminishes prefactual thought, unless the situation suggests that such thought is adaptive (i.e., could benefit performance). Power-holders indeed generated less prefactuals than the powerless (Experiments 1 and 2), but only if benefits for performance were ambiguous rather than clear (Experiment 3). These findings indicate that social context factors related to confidence affect prefactual thought, and that power-holders' flexible adaptation to the situation sometimes elicits inaction (i.e., prefactual thought) rather than spontaneous action. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Neutron scattering reveals the dynamic basis of protein adaptation to extreme temperature.

PubMed

Tehei, Moeava; Madern, Dominique; Franzetti, Bruno; Zaccai, Giuseppe

2005-12-09

To explore protein adaptation to extremely high temperatures, two parameters related to macromolecular dynamics, the mean square atomic fluctuation and structural resilience, expressed as a mean force constant, were measured by neutron scattering for hyperthermophilic malate dehydrogenase from Methanococcus jannaschii and a mesophilic homologue, lactate dehydrogenase from Oryctolagus cunniculus (rabbit) muscle. The root mean square fluctuations, defining flexibility, were found to be similar for both enzymes (1.5 A) at their optimal activity temperature. Resilience values, defining structural rigidity, are higher by an order of magnitude for the high temperature-adapted protein (0.15 Newtons/meter for O. cunniculus lactate dehydrogenase and 1.5 Newtons/meter for M. jannaschii malate dehydrogenase). Thermoadaptation appears to have been achieved by evolution through selection of appropriate structural rigidity in order to preserve specific protein structure while allowing the conformational flexibility required for activity.

A molecular mechanism of adaptation in an estuarine copepod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, Brian P.; Lane, Maxine A.; Gonzalez, Carole M.

The estuarine copepod Eurytemora affinis (Poppe) has been shown to adapt better at the individual (physiological) and population (genetic) level to rapidly cycling environments than to slowly cycling temperatures. In addition, female copepods are physiologically more flexible than males. Three questions arise from these observations. Why is the geographical and seasonal distribution of Eurytemora in estuaries so limited? Why is the genetic variance so high in an organism which is so physiologically flexible? And does the difference between sexes help to explain the maintenance of genetic variance? A mechanism of adaptation which may allow further examination of these questions is the increased synthesis of stress proteins, first identified as heat shock proteins (HSP). The HSPs in the copepod Eurytemora affinis are quantitatively and qualitatively related to stress. Temperature and osmotic stress, for example, induce different sets of proteins. Thus, better understanding the phenomenon may be useful in marine ecology.

Wind tunnels with adapted walls for reducing wall interference

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganzer, U.

1979-01-01

The basic principle of adaptable wind tunnel walls is explained. First results of an investigation carried out at the Aero-Space Institute of Berlin Technical University are presented for two dimensional flexible walls and a NACA 0012 airfoil. With five examples exhibiting very different flow conditions it is demonstrated that it is possible to reduce wall interference and to avoid blockage at transonic speeds by wall adaptation.