Critical success factors in infrastructure projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; Mohd Rahim, E. M. Roodienyanto

2017-11-01

Construction of infrastructure project is different from buildings. The main difference is term of project site where infrastructure project need to command a long stretch while building mostly confine to a limited area. As such factors that are critical to infrastructure project may not be that significant to building project and vice versa. Flood mitigation can be classified under infrastructure projects under which their developments are planned by the government with the specific objective to reduce or avoid the negative effects of flood to the environment and livelihood. One of the indicators in project success is delay. The impact of project delay in construction industry is significant that it decelerates the projects implementation, specifically the government projects. This study attempted to identify and compare the success factors between infrastructure and building projects, as such comparison rarely found in the current literature. A model of flood mitigation projects' success factors was developed by merging the experts' views and reports from the existing literature. The experts' views were obtained from the responses to open-ended questions on the required fundamentals to achieve successful completion of flood mitigation projects. An affinity analysis was applied to these responses to develop the model. The developed model was then compared to the established success factors found in building project, extracted from the previous studies to identify the similarities and differences between the two models. This study would assist the government and construction players to become more effective in constructing successful flood mitigation projects for the future practice in a flood-prone country like Malaysia.

Flood trends and river engineering on the Mississippi River system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pinter, N.; Jemberie, A.A.; Remo, J.W.F.; Heine, R.A.; Ickes, B.S.

2008-01-01

Along >4000 km of the Mississippi River system, we document that climate, land-use change, and river engineering have contributed to statistically significant increases in flooding over the past 100-150 years. Trends were tested using a database of >8 million hydrological measurements. A geospatial database of historical engineering construction was used to quantify the response of flood levels to each unit of engineering infrastructure. Significant climate- and/or land use-driven increases in flow were detected, but the largest and most pervasive contributors to increased flooding on the Mississippi River system were wing dikes and related navigational structures, followed by progressive levee construction. In the area of the 2008 Upper Mississippi flood, for example, about 2 m of the flood crest is linked to navigational and flood-control engineering. Systemwide, large increases in flood levels were documented at locations and at times of wing-dike and levee construction. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Towards River Rehabilitation as AN Integrated Approach to Flood Management in Asian Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgitt, David L.

Flood management in Asian cities has conventionally been approached through structural intervention where floods are regarded as a threat requiring control through engineering infrastructure. Such a command and control paradigm represents a marked transition from the way that monsoon flood regimes have been traditionally perceived across Asia. Rapid urbanization and climate change has imposed increasingly difficult flood management challenges as an extension of impermeable surfaces generates rapid runoff and flash flooding, while cities expand into flood-prone areas. Property and communities are placed at enhanced risk. Urbanization reallocates risk as channel and floodplain modification influences flood regimes, while demands for flood protection at certain locations can redistribute risk to other areas. An increasing concern about flood hazard across Asian cities questions whether conventional solutions reliant on structural intervention are sustainable. Such questioning is mirrored by an alternative paradigm of rehabilitation in integrated river basin management — a recognition that restoring and sustaining functional river ecosystems with high biodiversity is one of the greatest challenges facing society. Rehabilitation initiatives demand a new approach to river basin management which encourage interdisciplinary activity, particularly between engineers, hydrologists, geomorphologists and ecologists. The paper sets out some preliminary ideas from a research project investigating the potential for river rehabilitation as a central tenet of flood management, with a particular focus on Asian cities.

Designing and operating infrastructure for nonstationary flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Climate exhibits organized low-frequency and regime-like variability at multiple time scales, causing the risk associated with climate extremes such as floods and droughts to vary in time. Despite broad recognition of this nonstationarity, there has been little theoretical development of ideas for the design and operation of infrastructure considering the regime structure of such changes and their potential predictability. We use paleo streamflow reconstructions to illustrate an approach to the design and operation of infrastructure to address nonstationary flood and drought risk. Specifically, we consider the tradeoff between flood control and conservation storage, and develop design and operation principles for allocating these storage volumes considering both a m-year project planning period and a n-year historical sampling record. As n increases, the potential uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of the return periods associated with the T-year extreme event decreases. As the duration m of the future operation period decreases, the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of the T-year event also increases. Finally, given the quasi-periodic nature of the system it may be possible to offer probabilistic predictions of the conditions in the m-year future period, especially if m is small. In the context of such predictions, one can consider that a m-year prediction may have lower bias, but higher variance, than would be associated with using a stationary estimate from the preceding n years. This bias-variance trade-off, and the potential for considering risk management for multiple values of m, provides an interesting system design challenge. We use wavelet-based simulation models in a Bayesian framework to estimate these biases and uncertainty distributions and devise a risk-optimized decision rule for the allocation of flood and conservation storage. The associated theoretical development also provides a methodology for the sizing of storage for new infrastructure under nonstationarity, and an examination of risk adaptation measures which consider both short term and long term options simultaneously.

Changing Perceptions of Flooding and Stormwater as a Driver of Urban Hydrology and Biogeochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hale, R. L.

2015-12-01

Urbanization can have detrimental impacts on downstream ecosystems due to its effects on hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. In particular, how urban stormwater systems are designed have implications for flood regimes and biogeochemical transformations. Flood and stormwater management paradigms have shifted over time at large scales, but patterns and drivers of local stormwater infrastructure designs are unknown. We describe patterns of infrastructure design and use over the 20th century in three cities along an urbanization gradient in Utah: Salt Lake, Logan, and Heber City. To understand changes in stormwater management paradigms we conducted a historical media content analysis of newspaper articles related to flooding and stormwater in Salt Lake City from 1900 to 2012. Stormwater infrastructure design varied spatially and temporally, both within and among cities. All three cities transitioned from agriculture to urban land use, and legacies were evident in the use of agricultural canals for stormwater conveyance. Salt Lake City infrastructure transitioned from centralized storm sewers during early urbanization to decentralized detention systems in the 1970's. In contrast, newer cities, Logan and Heber, saw parallel increases in conveyance and detention systems with urbanization. The media analysis revealed significant changes in flood and stormwater management paradigms over the 20th century that were driven by complex factors including top-down regulations, local disturbances, and funding constraints. Early management paradigms focused on infrastructural solutions to address problems with private and public property damage, whereas more recent paradigms focus on behavioral solutions to flooding and green infrastructure solutions to prevent negative impacts of urban stormwater on local ecosystems. Changes in human perceptions of the environment can affect how we design urban ecosystems, with important implications for ecological functions.

Preparing for local adaptation: Understanding flood risk perceptions in Pittsburgh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Parodi, G.; Klima, K.

2016-12-01

In cities such as Pittsburgh, aging and insufficient infrastructure contributes to flashfloods and numerous combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating streets, basements and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme events in Western Pennsylvania. For a storm water adaptation plan to be implemented successfully, the City of Pittsburgh will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop risk communications effectively, the City and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. To that end we surveyed 1,376 Pittsburgh residents on a variety of flood risk topics through an online or paper survey in Fall 2015. On balance, residents were relatively knowledgeable about storm water and see the City's current infrastructure as being inadequate to meet future risk. Moreover, they see the risk of runoff events as increasing and especially among those who live in hazardous flood areas. Residents expressed interest in having a dedicated fund to deal with runoff events. Among those queried about their willingness-to-pay, those asked to pay $15 were most interested in a dedicated fund and for green infrastructure (as opposed to gray infrastructure) in particular. Finally, while most residents favored green infrastructure in terms of its attractiveness and perceived affects on mitigating climate change many did not see it as effective at addressing flooding as gray infrastructure. We found people understand the risk and are open to doing something about it. However, more guidance and information on appropriate ways to adapt locally in terms that make sense to residents could enhance informed support for adaptation measures.

Development of an anti-flood board to protect the interiors and exteriors of the infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petru, Michal; Srb, Pavel; Sevcik, Ladislav; Martinec, Tomas; Kulhavy, Petr

2018-06-01

This article deals with the development of an anti-flood board to protect the interior and exterior of various infrastructures, such a houses, cottages or industrial buildings. It was designed prototypes and assembled numerical simulations. In Central Europe and in particular in the Czech Republic, floods are an integral part of the natural water cycle and cause great loss of life and great property damage. The development of new types of mobile anti-flood boards is very important as the design solution is developed for flood protection with regard to minimizing weight, cost of production, easy manipulation, simplicity and speed of installation.

Classification and assessment of water bodies as adaptive structural measures for flood risk management planning.

PubMed

McMinn, William R; Yang, Qinli; Scholz, Miklas

2010-09-01

Severe rainfall events have become increasingly common in Europe. Flood defence engineering works are highly capital intensive and can be limited by land availability, leaving land and communities exposed to repeated flooding. Any adaptive drainage structure must have engineered inlets and outlets that control the water level and the rate of release. In Scotland, there are a relatively high number of drinking water reservoirs (operated by Scottish Water), which fall within this defined category and could contribute to flood management control. Reducing the rate of runoff from the upper reaches of a catchment will reduce the volume and peak flows of flood events downstream, thus allowing flood defences to be reduced in size, decreasing the corresponding capital costs. A database of retention basins with flood control potential has been developed for Scotland. The research shows that the majority of small and former drinking water reservoirs are kept full and their spillways are continuously in operation. Utilising some of the available capacity to contribute to flood control could reduce the costs of complying with the EU Flood Directive. Furthermore, the application of a previously developed classification model for Baden in Germany for the Scottish data set showed a lower diversity for basins in Scotland due to less developed infrastructure. The principle value of this approach is a clear and unambiguous categorisation, based on standard variables, which can help to promote communication and understanding between stakeholders. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Framework and Metric for resilience concept in water infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamouz, M.; Olyaei, M.

2017-12-01

The collaborators of water industries are looking for ways and means to bring resilience into our water infrastructure systems. The key to this conviction is to develop a shared vision among the engineers, builders and decision makers of our water executive branch and policy makers, utilities, community leaders, players, end users and other stakeholders of our urban environment. Among water infrastructures, wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) have a significant role on urban systems' serviceability. These facilities, especially when located in coastal regions, are vulnerable to heavy rain, surface runoff, storm surges and coastal flooding. Flooding can cause overflows from treatment facilities into the natural water bodies and result in environmental predicament of significant proportions. In order to minimize vulnerability to flood, a better understanding of flood risk must be realized. Vulnerability to floods frequency and intensity is increasing by external forcing such as climate change, as well as increased interdependencies in urban systems. Therefore, to quantify the extent of efforts for flood risk management, a unified index is needed for evaluating resiliency of infrastructure. Resiliency is a key concept in understanding vulnerability in dealing with flood. New York City based on its geographic location, its urbanized nature, densely populated area, interconnected water bodies and history of the past flooding events is extremely vulnerable to flood and was selected as the case study. In this study, a framework is developed to evaluate resiliency of WWTPs. An analysis of the current understanding of vulnerability is performed and a new perspective utilizing different components of resiliency including resourcefulness, robustness, rapidity and redundancy is presented. To quantify resiliency and rank the wastewater treatment plants in terms of how resilient they are, an index is developed using Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique. Moreover, Improvement of WWTPs' performance is investigated by allocating financial resources to attain a desirable level of resiliency. The result of this study shows the significant value of quantifying and improving flood resiliency of WWTPs that could be used for other water infrastructure and in planning of investment strategies for a region

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Influence of solid waste and topography on urban floods: The case of Mexico City.

PubMed

Zambrano, Luis; Pacheco-Muñoz, Rodrigo; Fernández, Tania

2018-02-24

Floods in cities are increasingly common as a consequence of multifactor watershed dynamics, including geomorphology, land-use changes and land subsidence. However, urban managers have focused on infrastructure to address floods by reducing blocked sewage infrastructure, without significant success. Using Mexico City as a case study, we generated a spatial flood risk model with geomorphology and anthropogenic variables. The results helped contrast the implications of different public policies in land use and waste disposal, and correlating them with flood hazards. Waste disposal was only related to small floods. 58% of the city has a high risk of experiencing small floods, and 24% of the city has a risk for large floods. Half of the population with the lowest income is located in the high-risk areas for large floods. These models are easy to build, generate fast results and are able to help to flood policies, by understanding flood interactions in urban areas within the watershed.

The Efficacy of Blue-Green Infrastructure for Pluvial Flood Prevention under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babovic, Filip; Mijic, Ana; Madani, Kaveh

2017-04-01

Urban areas around the world are growing in size and importance; however, cities experience elevated risks of pluvial flooding due to the prevalence of impermeable land surfaces within them. Urban planners and engineers encounter a great deal of uncertainty when planning adaptations to these flood risks, due to the interaction of multiple factors such as climate change and land use change. This leads to conditions of deep uncertainty. Blue-Green (BG) solutions utilise natural vegetation and processes to absorb and retain runoff while providing a host of other social, economic and environmental services. When utilised in conjunction with Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methodologies, BG infrastructure provides a flexible and adaptable method of "no-regret" adaptation; resulting in a practical, economically efficient, and socially acceptable solution for flood risk mitigation. This work presents the methodology for analysing the impact of BG infrastructure in the context of the Adaptation Tipping Points approach to protect against pluvial flood risk in an iterative manner. An economic analysis of the adaptation pathways is also conducted in order to better inform decision-makers on the benefits and costs of the adaptation options presented. The methodology was applied to a case study in the Cranbrook Catchment in the North East of London. Our results show that BG infrastructure performs better under conditions of uncertainty than traditional grey infrastructure.

Hydrodynamic modeling of urban flooding taking into account detailed data about city infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belikov, Vitaly; Norin, Sergey; Aleksyuk, Andrey; Krylenko, Inna; Borisova, Natalya; Rumyantsev, Alexey

2017-04-01

Flood waves moving across urban areas have specific features. Thus, the linear objects of infrastructure (such as embankments, roads, dams) can change the direction of flow or block the water movement. On the contrary, paved avenues and wide streets in the cities contribute to the concentration of flood waters. Buildings create an additional resistance to the movement of water, which depends on the urban density and the type of constructions; this effect cannot be completely described by Manning's resistance law. In addition, part of the earth surface, occupied by buildings, is excluded from the flooded area, which results in a substantial (relative to undeveloped areas) increase of the depth of flooding, especially for unsteady flow conditions. An approach to numerical simulation of urban areas flooding that consists in direct allocating of all buildings and structures on the computational grid are proposed. This can be done in almost full automatic way with usage of modern software. Real geometry of all objects of infrastructure can be taken into account on the base of highly detailed digital maps and satellite images. The calculations based on two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations on irregular adaptive computational meshes, which can contain millions of cells and take into account tens of thousands of buildings and other objects of infrastructure. Flood maps, received as result of modeling, are the basis for the damage and risk assessment for urban areas. The main advantage of the developed method is high-precision calculations, realistic modeling results and appropriate graphical display of the flood dynamics and dam-break wave's propagation on urban areas. Verification of this method has been done on the experimental data and real events simulations, including catastrophic flooding of the Krymsk city in 2012 year.

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

PubMed

Morita, M

2011-01-01

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kellermann, Patric; Schönberger, Christine; Thieken, Annegret H.

2016-11-01

Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.

Real Option Cost Vulnerability Analysis of Electrical Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prime, Thomas; Knight, Phil

2015-04-01

Critical infrastructure such as electricity substations are vulnerable to various geo-hazards that arise from climate change. These geo-hazards range from increased vegetation growth to increased temperatures and flood inundation. Of all the identified geo-hazards, coastal flooding has the greatest impact, but to date has had a low probability of occurring. However, in the face of climate change, coastal flooding is likely to occur more often due to extreme water levels being experienced more frequently due to sea-level rise (SLR). Knowing what impact coastal flooding will have now and in the future on critical infrastructure such as electrical substations is important for long-term management. Using a flood inundation model, present day and future flood events have been simulated, from 1 in 1 year events up to 1 in 10,000 year events. The modelling makes an integrated assessment of impact by using sea-level and surge to simulate a storm tide. The geographical area the model covers is part of the Northwest UK coastline with a range of urban and rural areas. The ensemble of flood maps generated allows the identification of critical infrastructure exposed to coastal flooding. Vulnerability has be assessed using an Estimated Annual Damage (EAD) value. Sampling SLR annual probability distributions produces a projected "pathway" for SLR up to 2100. EAD is then calculated using a relationship derived from the flood model. Repeating the sampling process allows a distribution of EAD up to 2100 to be produced. These values are discounted to present day values using an appropriate discount rate. If the cost of building and maintain defences is also removed from this a Net Present Value (NPV) of building the defences can be calculated. This distribution of NPV can be used as part of a cost modelling process involving Real Options, A real option is the right but not obligation to undertake investment decisions. In terms of investment in critical infrastructure resilience this means that a real option can be deferred or exercised depending on the climate future that has been realised. The real option value is defined as the maximum positive NPV value that is found across the range of potential SLR "futures". Real Options add value in that flood defences may not be built when there is real value in doing so. The cost modelling output is in the form of an accessible database that has detailed real option values varying spatially across the model domain (for each critical infrastructure) and temporally up to 2100. The analysis has shown that in 2100, 8.2% of the substations analysed have a greater than a 1 in 2 chance of exercising the real option to build flood defences against coastal flooding. The cost modelling tool and flood maps that have been developed will help stakeholders in deciding where and when to invest in mitigating against coastal flooding.

Vulnerability of Population and Transportation Infrastructure at the East Bank of Delaware Bay Due to Coastal Flooding in Sea-Level Rise Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-30

resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional...shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic... ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine

September 2013 Storm and Flood Assessment Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walterscheid, J. C.

2015-12-21

Between September 10 and 17, 2013, New Mexico and Colorado received a historically large amount of precipitation (Figure 1). This report assesses the damage caused by flooding along with estimated costs to repair the damage at Los Alamos National Laboratory (the Laboratory) on the Pajarito Plateau. Los Alamos County, New Mexico, received between 200% and 600% of the normal precipitation for this time period (Figure 2), and the Laboratory received approximately 450% percent of its average precipitation for September (Figure 3). As a result, the Laboratory was inundated with rain, including the extremely large, greater-than-1000-yr return period event that occurredmore » between September 12 and 13 (Table 1). With saturated antecedent soil conditions from the September 10 storm, when the September 12 to September 13 storm hit, the flooding was disastrous to the Laboratory’s environmental infrastructure, including access roads, gage stations, watershed controls, control measures installed under the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System Permit (hereafter, the Individual Permit), and groundwater monitoring wells (Figures 4 through 21). From September 16 to October 1, 2013, the Laboratory completed field assessments of environmental infrastructure and generated descriptions and estimates of the damage, which are presented in spreadsheets in Attachments 1 to 4 of this report. Section 2 of this report contains damage assessments by watershed, including access roads, gage stations, watershed controls, and control measures installed under the Individual Permit. Section 3 contains damage assessments of monitoring wells by the groundwater monitoring groups as established in the Interim Facility-Wide Groundwater Monitoring Plan for Monitoring Year 2014. Section 4 addresses damage and loss of automated samplers. Section 5 addresses sediment sampling needs, and Section 6 is the summary of estimated recovery costs from the significant rain and flooding during September 2013.« less

A Cloud-Based Global Flood Disaster Community Cyber-Infrastructure: Development and Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wan, Zhanming; Hong, Yang; Khan, Sadiq; Gourley, Jonathan; Flamig, Zachary; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Tang, Guoqiang

2014-01-01

Flood disasters have significant impacts on the development of communities globally. This study describes a public cloud-based flood cyber-infrastructure (CyberFlood) that collects, organizes, visualizes, and manages several global flood databases for authorities and the public in real-time, providing location-based eventful visualization as well as statistical analysis and graphing capabilities. In order to expand and update the existing flood inventory, a crowdsourcing data collection methodology is employed for the public with smartphones or Internet to report new flood events, which is also intended to engage citizen-scientists so that they may become motivated and educated about the latest developments in satellite remote sensing and hydrologic modeling technologies. Our shared vision is to better serve the global water community with comprehensive flood information, aided by the state-of-the- art cloud computing and crowdsourcing technology. The CyberFlood presents an opportunity to eventually modernize the existing paradigm used to collect, manage, analyze, and visualize water-related disasters.

Applications of ASFCM(Assessment System of Flood Control Measurement) in Typhoon Committee Members

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, C.

2013-12-01

Due to extreme weather environment such as global warming and greenhouse effect, the risks of having flood damage has been increased with larger scale of flood damages. Therefore, it became necessary to consider modifying climate change, flood damage and its scale to the previous dimension measurement evaluation system. In this regard, it is needed to establish a comprehensive and integrated system to evaluate the most optimized measures for flood control through eliminating uncertainties of socio-economic impacts. Assessment System of Structural Flood Control Measures (ASFCM) was developed for determining investment priorities of the flood control measures and establishing the social infrastructure projects. ASFCM consists of three modules: 1) the initial setup and inputs module, 2) the flood and damage estimation module, and 3) the socio-economic analysis module. First, we have to construct the D/B for flood damage estimation, which is the initial and input data about the estimation unit, property, historical flood damages, and applied area's topographic & hydrological data. After that, it is important to classify local characteristic for constructing flood damage data. Five local characteristics (big city, medium size city, small city, farming area, and mountain area) are classified by criterion of application (population density). Next step is the floodplain simulation with HEC-RAS which is selected to simulate inundation. Through inputting the D/B and damage estimation, it is able to estimate the total damage (only direct damage) that is the amount of cost to recover the socio-economic activities back to the safe level before flood did occur. The last module suggests the economic analysis index (B/C ratio) with Multidimensional Flood Damage Analysis. Consequently, ASFCM suggests the reference index in constructing flood control measures and planning non-structural systems to reduce water-related damage. It is possible to encourage flood control planners and managers to consider and apply the socio-economic analysis results. ASFCM was applied in Republic of Korea, Thailand and Philippines to review efficiency and applicability. Figure 1. ASFCM Application(An-yang Stream, Republic of Korea)

floodX: urban flash flood experiments monitored with conventional and alternative sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moy de Vitry, Matthew; Dicht, Simon; Leitão, João P.

2017-09-01

The data sets described in this paper provide a basis for developing and testing new methods for monitoring and modelling urban pluvial flash floods. Pluvial flash floods are a growing hazard to property and inhabitants' well-being in urban areas. However, the lack of appropriate data collection methods is often cited as an impediment for reliable flood modelling, thereby hindering the improvement of flood risk mapping and early warning systems. The potential of surveillance infrastructure and social media is starting to draw attention for this purpose. In the floodX project, 22 controlled urban flash floods were generated in a flood response training facility and monitored with state-of-the-art sensors as well as standard surveillance cameras. With these data, it is possible to explore the use of video data and computer vision for urban flood monitoring and modelling. The floodX project stands out as the largest documented flood experiment of its kind, providing both conventional measurements and video data in parallel and at high temporal resolution. The data set used in this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.830513.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure.

PubMed

Dawson, Richard J; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N; Watson, Geoff V R; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W

2018-06-13

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Authors.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Richard J.; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N.; Watson, Geoff V. R.; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N.; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W.

2018-06-01

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

PubMed Central

Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Darch, Geoff; Paulson, Kevin

2018-01-01

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712793

Public engagement in 3D flood modelling through integrating crowd sourced imagery with UAV photogrammetry to create a 3D flood hydrograph.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, C. E.; Howell, J.; Butler, R.

2016-12-01

With an increase in flood and storm events affecting infrastructure the role of weather systems, in a changing climate, and their impact is of increasing interest. Here we present a new workflow integrating crowd sourced imagery from the public with UAV photogrammetry to create, the first 3D hydrograph of a major flooding event. On December 30th 2015, Storm Frank resulted in high magnitude rainfall, within the Dee catchment in Aberdeenshire, resulting in the highest ever-recorded river level for the Dee, with significant impact on infrastructure and river morphology. The worst of the flooding occurred during daylight hours and was digitally captured by the public on smart phones and cameras. After the flood event a UAV was used to shoot photogrammetry to create a textured elevation model of the area around Aboyne Bridge on the River Dee. A media campaign aided crowd sourced digital imagery from the public, resulting in over 1,000 images submitted by the public. EXIF data captured by the imagery of the time, date were used to sort the images into a time series. Markers such as signs, walls, fences and roads within the images were used to determine river level height through the flood, and matched onto the elevation model to contour the change in river level. The resulting 3D hydrograph shows the build up of water on the up-stream side of the Bridge that resulted in significant scouring and under-mining in the flood. We have created the first known data based 3D hydrograph for a river section, from a UAV photogrammetric model and crowd sourced imagery. For future flood warning and infrastructure management a solution that allows a realtime hydrograph to be created utilising augmented reality to integrate the river level information in crowd sourced imagery directly onto a 3D model, would significantly improve management planning and infrastructure resilience assessment.

Multi-scalar interactions between infrastructure, smallholder water management, and coastal dynamics in the Bengal Delta, Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, K. G.; Brondizio, E.; Roy, K.; Syvitski, J. P.

2016-12-01

Because of their low-lying elevations and large number of inhabitants and infrastructure, river deltas are ground zero for climate change impacts, particularly from sea-level rise and storm surges. The increased vulnerability of downstream delta communities to coastal flooding as a result of upstream engineering has been acknowledged for decades. What has received less attention is the sensitivity of deltas to the interactions of these processes and increasing intensity of cultivation and irrigation in their coastal regions. Beyond basin-scale damming, regional infrastructure affects the movement of sediment and water on deltas, and combined with upstream modifications may exacerbate the risk of expanded tidal flooding, erosion of arable land, and salinization of soils and groundwater associated with sea level rise. To examine the social-biophysical feedbacks associated with regional-scale infrastructure, smallholder water management practices and coastal dynamics, a nested framework was applied to two districts of the coastal southwest region of Bangladesh. The two districts vary in tidal range, salinity, freshwater availability and socioeconomic structures, and are spatially varied in farmer's adaptations. Both districts contain numerous large embankment systems initially designed to protect cropland from tidal flooding, but that have been poorly maintained since their construction in the 1960's. The framework was co-produced using local-level stakeholder input collected during group interviews with rural farmers in 8 villages within the two districts, and explicitly accounts for engineered and natural biophysical variables as well as governance and institutional structures at 3 levels of analysis. Household survey results indicate that the presence or absence of embankments as a result of poor management and dynamic coastal processes is the primary control on freshwater availability and thus influences farming strategies, socioeconomic conditions and social positions in both districts. Local-scale interactions with the embankments are spatially heterogeneous, but geospatial analyses show the potential for these to collectively impact physical and social stability across a region already vulnerable to coastal flooding.

Infrastructure and adaptive management in an eco-hydrological Delta: Lessons learned from design and construction of the Haringvliet Sluices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linsen, Max; Mostert, Erik; van der Zaag, Pieter

2015-04-01

Consequences of climate change include an increase in extreme weather events in North-West Europe. The Netherlands is directly affected by these extreme events, in particular in water management practices. Large investments in infrastructure were made ever since the floods of 1953, leading to a higher level of protection against flooding from the sea and to a managed eco-hydrological Delta. Adaptive water management is presented as an approach to deal with challenges in water allocation and flood protection. One challenge to adaptive water management relates to infrastructure. Large works are often inevitable and essential in flood protection. Hydraulic infrastructure however tends to be inflexible by nature and requires a level of robustness to deliver the desired performance over time. In this study, we focus on the relation between desired performance of infrastructure and adaptation to environmental change and evolving social demands. The objective of this study is to gain an understanding of the evolution of the desired performance of water management infrastructure. This serves two purposes: an increased understanding of design and construction of existing infrastructure, and potential lessons learned for future hydraulic infrastructure in the context of adaptive management. A qualitative approach was used to evaluate over 130 reports on all stages of the design, planning and construction of the Haringvliet sluices as part of the realization of the Delta Works. The time frame is set between 1950 and 1970. The main source of information is a set of quarterly reports to the Dutch parliament, published between 1956 and 1988, and which provided detailed information on design, construction, maintenance, system behavior, policy needs, social demands and stakeholders. The original objectives of the infrastructure were reflected in its design: protection against flooding, protection against salt intrusion and discharge of water and ice - all with a desired ease of operations of the gates of the infrastructure. The dimensions of the Haringvliet sluices thank their uniqueness to the requirements to discharge both ice and water. Upon completion of the Haringvliet sluices in 1970, two main observations can be made. First, environmental issues were hardly considered, while the focus was on protection against flooding and salt from the sea. Second, during the construction phase, experimentation, learning and adaptation were reported. Changes were made during the construction and based on extreme weather events and lessons learned from construction activities elsewhere. These observations prompt the question whether an experimental approach as applied during the construction of the Haringvliet sluices would be allowed for in modern infrastructure projects of comparable impact, size and costs. A second question to be studied should be what happened after the completion of the Haringvliet sluices, when this infrastructure had to be operated and in a context in which environmental issues gradually became more prominent and eventually integrated into the water management practice.

Augmenting Austrian flood management practices through geospatial predictive analytics: a study in Carinthia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, S. M.; Paulus, G.

2013-06-01

The Danube River basin has long been the location of significant flooding problems across central Europe. The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of these flood events, unveiling a dire need for enhanced flood management policy and tools in the region. Located in the southern portion of Austria, the state of Carinthia has experienced a significant volume of intense flood impacts over the last decade. Although the Austrian government has acknowledged these issues, their remedial actions have been primarily structural to date. Continued focus on controlling the natural environment through infrastructure while disregarding the need to consider alternative forms of assessing flood exposure will only act as a provisional solution to this inescapable risk. In an attempt to remedy this flaw, this paper highlights the application of geospatial predictive analytics and spatial recovery index as a proxy for community resilience, as well as the cultural challenges associated with the application of foreign models within an Austrian environment.

A global assessment of the societal impacts of glacier outburst floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Tweed, Fiona S.

2016-09-01

Glacier outburst floods are sudden releases of large amounts of water from a glacier. They are a pervasive natural hazard worldwide. They have an association with climate primarily via glacier mass balance and their impacts on society partly depend on population pressure and land use. Given the ongoing changes in climate and land use and population distributions there is therefore an urgent need to discriminate the spatio-temporal patterning of glacier outburst floods and their impacts. This study presents data compiled from 20 countries and comprising 1348 glacier floods spanning 10 centuries. Societal impacts were assessed using a relative damage index based on recorded deaths, evacuations, and property and infrastructure destruction and disruption. These floods originated from 332 sites; 70% were from ice-dammed lakes and 36% had recorded societal impact. The number of floods recorded has apparently reduced since the mid-1990s in all major world regions. Two thirds of sites that have produced > 5 floods (n = 32) have floods occurring progressively earlier in the year. Glacier floods have directly caused at least: 7 deaths in Iceland, 393 deaths in the European Alps, 5745 deaths in South America and 6300 deaths in central Asia. Peru, Nepal and India have experienced fewer floods yet higher levels of damage. One in five sites in the European Alps has produced floods that have damaged farmland, destroyed homes and damaged bridges; 10% of sites in South America have produced glacier floods that have killed people and damaged infrastructure; 15% of sites in central Asia have produced floods that have inundated farmland, destroyed homes, damaged roads and damaged infrastructure. Overall, Bhutan and Nepal have the greatest national-level economic consequences of glacier flood impacts. We recommend that accurate, full and standardised monitoring, recording and reporting of glacier floods is essential if spatio-temporal patterns in glacier flood occurrence, magnitude and societal impact are to be better understood. We note that future modelling of the global impact of glacier floods cannot assume that the same trends will continue and will need to consider combining land-use change with probability distributions of geomorphological responses to climate change and to human activity.

Integrated Urban Flood Analysis considering Optimal Operation of Flood Control Facilities in Urban Drainage Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Y. I.; Kim, M. S.; Choi, J. H.; Yuk, G. M.

2017-12-01

eavy rainfall has become a recent major cause of urban area flooding due to the climate change and urbanization. To prevent property damage along with casualties, a system which can alert and forecast urban flooding must be developed. Optimal performance of reducing flood damage can be expected of urban drainage facilities when operated in smaller rainfall events over extreme ones. Thus, the purpose of this study is to execute: A) flood forecasting system using runoff analysis based on short term rainfall; and B) flood warning system which operates based on the data from pump stations and rainwater storage in urban basins. In result of the analysis, it is shown that urban drainage facilities using short term rainfall forecasting data by radar will be more effective to reduce urban flood damage than using only the inflow data of the facility. Keywords: Heavy Rainfall, Urban Flood, Short-term Rainfall Forecasting, Optimal operating of urban drainage facilities. AcknowledgmentsThis research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B066744-05) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Water Cycle Implications of Agriculture and Flood Control Infrastructure in the San Francisco Bay-Delta System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacVean, L. J.; Thompson, S. E.; Sivapalan, M.; Hutton, P.

2016-12-01

California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta sits at the intersection of vast agricultural and population centers, and supplies fresh water for the diverse and often competing needs of ecosystems, farmers, and millions of Californians. In this study, we address the question of how flows into and out of the Delta have evolved in response to human intervention since 1850 in order to augment the scientific foundation of management decisions. In particular, we have developed a numerical model to quantify Delta outflows over the last 165 years, through which we explore the implications of the conversion of native vegetation to agricultural crops and the construction of flood control infrastructure. Our model domain encompasses the watersheds tributary to the San Francisco Bay-Delta system, and simulates the dynamic components of water usage through vegetative uptake and evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, flood conveyance, and water exports at incremental levels of development from 1850 to the present. The model is run using historical climatological forcing; the climate and the effects of development on the Delta's watersheds are allowed to co-evolve. After verification that the dominant processes are captured in the numerics, the results illustrate the interactions between soil water storage, flood water stored behind levees, and consumption of water through ET and groundwater recharge, and their effects on the inflows to the San Francisco Bay estuary. Our study provides a picture of the changes in magnitude and temporal distribution of freshwater flows brought about by both intentional and unintentional consequences of the development of California's Central Valley.

August, 2002 - floods events, affected areas revitalisation and prevention for the future in the central Bohemian region, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bina, L.; Vacha, F.; Vodova, J.

2003-04-01

Central Bohemian Region is located in a shape of a ring surrounding the capitol of Prague. Its total territorial area is 11.014 sq.km and population of 1 130.000 inhabitants. According to EU nomenclature of regional statistical units, the Central Bohemian Region is classified as an independent NUTS II. Bohemia's biggest rivers, Vltava and Labe form the region's backbone dividing it along a north-south line, besides that there are Sazava and Berounka, the two big headwaters of Vltava, which flow through the region and there also are some cascade man made lakes and 2 important big dams - Orlik and Slapy on the Vltava River in the area of the region. Overflowing of these rivers and their feeders including cracking of high-water dams during the floods in August 2002 caused total or partial destruction or damage of more than 200 towns and villages and total losses to the extend of 450 mil. EUR. The worst impact was on damaged or destroyed human dwellings, social infrastructure (schools, kindergartens, humanitarian facilities) and technical infrastructure (roads, waterworks, power distribution). Also businesses were considerably damaged including transport terminals in the area of river ports. Flowage of Spolana Neratovice chemical works caused critical environmental havoc. Regional crisis staff with regional Governor in the lead worked continuously during the floods and a regional integrated rescue system was subordinated to it. Due to the huge extent of the floods the crisis staff coordinated its work with central bodies of state including the Government and single "power" resorts (army, interior, transport). Immediately after floods a regional - controlled management was set up including an executive body for regional revitalisation which is connected to state coordinating resort - Ministry for Local Development, EU sources and humanitarian aid. In addition to a program of regional revitalisation additional preventive flood control programs are being developed including fields of: urban planning revision, river flow measures, revision of operation mode of dams, modification of waterworks' conception in areas liable to flooding and finally a program of power sources prevention during emergency situation (this program had been started before the floods). Regional establishment puts emphasis on preparation of preventive projects and management mentioned. An international co-operation of regions affected by floods and possibly building of joint teams for prevention measures proposal would be very effective and useful.

Synergizing green and gray infrastructures to increase water supply resilience in the Brazos River basin in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, H.; Yamazaki, D.; Finley, T.; Bohn, T. J.; Low, G.; Sabo, J. L.

2017-12-01

Water infrastructure lies at the heart of the challenges and opportunities of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM). Green infrastructure (e.g., wetlands restoration) presents an alternative to its hard-path counterpart - gray infrastructure, which often has external, economic and unmeasured ecological costs. But the science framework to prioritize green infrastructure buildout is nascent. In this study, we addressed this gap in Brazos River basin in Texas, in the context of corporate decisions to secure water supplies for various water stewardship objectives. We developed a physically-based tool to quantify the potential for wetland restoration to restore desired flows (hydrology), and a financial framework for comparing its cost-benefit with heightening an existing dam (conservation finance). Our framework has three components. First, we harnessed a topographic index (HAND) to identify the potential wetlands sites. Second, we coupled a land surface model (VIC) with a hydrodynamic model (CaMa-Flood) to investigate the effects of wetland size, location, and vegetation on hydrology. Finally, we estimated the net present value, indirect rate of return and payback period for green (wetlands) vs. gray (reservoir expansion) infrastructure. We found wetlands have more substantial impact on peak flow than baseflow. Interestingly, wetlands can improve baseflow reliability but not directly except with the largest (>400 km2) projects. Peak flow reduction volumes of wetlands if used as credits towards reservoir flood-control storage provide adequate conservation storage to deliver guaranteed reliability of baseflow. Hence, the synergy of existing dams with newly created wetlands offers a promising natural solution to increase water supply resilience, while green projects also generate revenue compared to their gray counterparts. This study demonstrates the possibility of using innovative engineering design to synergize green and gray infrastructures to convert water conflict to opportunities.

Assessing water reservoir management and development in Northern Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pianosi, F.; Quach, X.; Castelletti, A.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

2012-04-01

In many developing countries water is a key renewable resource to complement carbon-emitting energy production and support food security in the face of demand pressure from fast-growing industrial production and urbanization. To cope with undergoing changes, water resources development and management have to be reconsidered by enlarging their scope across sectors and adopting effective tools to analyze current and projected infrastructure potential and operation strategies. In this work we use multi-objective deterministic and stochastic optimization to assess the current reservoir operation and planned capacity expansion in the Red River Basin (Northern Vietnam), focusing on the major controllable infrastructure in the basin, the HoaBinh reservoir on the Da River. We first provide a general and mathematical description of the socio economic and physical system of the Red River Basin, including the three main objectives of hydropower production, flood control, and water supply, and using conceptual and data-driven modeling tools. Then, we analyze the historical operation of the HoaBinh reservoir and explore re-operation options corresponding to different tradeoffs among the three main objectives, using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm. Results show that there exist several operating policies that prove Pareto-dominant over the historical one, that is, they can improve all three management objectives simultaneously. However, while the improvement is rather significant with respect to hydropower production and water supply, it is much more limited in terms of flood control. To understand whether this is due to structural constraints (insufficient storing capacity) or to the imperfect information system (uncertainty in forecasting future flows and thus anticipate floods), we assessed the infrastructural system potential by application of Deterministic Dynamic Programming. Results show that the current operation can only be relatively improved by advanced optimization techniques, while investment should be put into enlarging the system storage capacity and exploiting additional information to inform the operation.

Impact of a large flood on mountain river habitats, channel morphology, and valley infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajdukiewicz, Hanna; Wyżga, Bartłomiej; Mikuś, Paweł; Zawiejska, Joanna; Radecki-Pawlik, Artur

2016-11-01

The Biała River, Polish Carpathians, was considerably modified by channelization and channel incision in the twentieth century. To restore the Biała, establishing an erodible corridor was proposed in two river sections located in its mountain and foothill course. In these sections, longer, unmanaged channel reaches alternate with short, channelized reaches; and channel narrowing and incision increases in the downstream direction. In June 2010 an 80-year flood occurred on the river; and this study aims at determining its effects on physical habitat conditions for river biota, channel morphology, and valley-floor infrastructure. Surveys of 10 pairs of closely located, unmanaged and channelized cross sections, performed in 2009 and in the late summer 2010, allowed us to assess the flood-induced changes to physical habitat conditions. A comparison of channel planforms determined before (2009) and after (2012) the flood provided information on the degree of channel widening as well as changes in the width of particular elements of the river's active zone in eight stretches of the Biała. The impact of the flood on valley-floor infrastructure was confronted with the degree of river widening in unmanaged and channelized river reaches. Before the flood, unmanaged cross sections were typified by finer bed material and greater lateral variability in depth-averaged and near-bed flow velocity than channelized cross sections. The flood tended to equalize habitat conditions in both types of river cross sections, obliterating differences (in particular physical habitat parameters) between channelized and unmanaged channel reaches. River widening mostly reflected an increase in the area of channel bars, whereas the widening of low-flow channels was less pronounced. A comparison of channel planform from 2009 and 2012 indicated that intense channel incision typical of downstream sections limited river widening by the flood. Active channel width increased by half in the unmanaged cross sections and by one-third in the channelized cross sections. However, damage to the valley-floor infrastructure was practically limited to the channelized river reaches with reinforced channel banks. This indicates incompetent management of riparian areas rather than the degree of river widening as a principal reason for the economic losses during the flood.

Urban RoGeR: Merging process-based high-resolution flash flood model for urban areas with long-term water balance predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiler, M.

2016-12-01

Heavy rain induced flash floods are still a serious hazard and generate high damages in urban areas. In particular in the spatially complex urban areas, the temporal and spatial pattern of runoff generation processes at a wide spatial range during extreme rainfall events need to be predicted including the specific effects of green infrastructure and urban forests. In addition, the initial conditions (soil moisture pattern, water storage of green infrastructure) and the effect of lateral redistribution of water (run-on effects and re-infiltration) have to be included in order realistically predict flash flood generation. We further developed the distributed, process-based model RoGeR (Runoff Generation Research) to include the relevant features and processes in urban areas in order to test the effects of different settings, initial conditions and the lateral redistribution of water on the predicted flood response. The uncalibrated model RoGeR runs at a spatial resolution of 1*1m² (LiDAR, degree of sealing, landuse), soil properties and geology (1:50.000). In addition, different green infrastructures are included into the model as well as the effect of trees on interception and transpiration. A hydraulic model was included into RoGeR to predict surface runoff, water redistribution, and re-infiltration. During rainfall events, RoGeR predicts at 5 min temporal resolution, but the model also simulates evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge during rain-free periods at a longer time step. The model framework was applied to several case studies in Germany where intense rainfall events produced flash floods causing high damage in urban areas and to a long-term research catchment in an urban setting (Vauban, Freiburg), where a variety of green infrastructures dominates the hydrology. Urban-RoGeR allowed us to study the effects of different green infrastructures on reducing the flood peak, but also its effect on the water balance (evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge). We could also show that infiltration of surface runoff from areas with a low infiltration (lateral redistribution) reduce the flood peaks by over 90% in certain areas and situations. Finally, we also evaluated the model to long-term runoff observations (surface runoff, ET, roof runoff) and to flood marks in the selected case studies.

Street Level Hydrology: An Urban Application of the WRF-Hydro Framework in Denver, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Hogue, T. S.; Salas, F. R.; Gochis, D.

2015-12-01

Urban flood modeling at the watershed scale carries unique challenges in routing complexity, data resolution, social and political issues, and land surface - infrastructure interactions. The ability to accurately trace and predict the flow of water through the urban landscape enables better emergency response management, floodplain mapping, and data for future urban infrastructure planning and development. These services are of growing importance as urban population is expected to continue increasing by 1.84% per year for the next 25 years, increasing the vulnerability of urban regions to damages and loss of life from floods. Although a range of watershed-scale models have been applied in specific urban areas to examine these issues, there is a trend towards national scale hydrologic modeling enabled by supercomputing resources to understand larger system-wide hydrologic impacts and feedbacks. As such it is important to address how urban landscapes can be represented in large scale modeling processes. The current project investigates how coupling terrain and infrastructure routing can improve flow prediction and flooding events over the urban landscape. We utilize the WRF-Hydro modeling framework and a high-resolution terrain routing grid with the goal of compiling standard data needs necessary for fine scale urban modeling and dynamic flood forecasting in the urban setting. The city of Denver is selected as a case study, as it has experienced several large flooding events in the last five years and has an urban annual population growth rate of 1.5%, one of the highest in the U.S. Our work highlights the hydro-informatic challenges associated with linking channel networks and drainage infrastructure in an urban area using the WRF-Hydro modeling framework and high resolution urban models for short-term flood prediction.

Fusion of Remote Sensing and Non-Authoritative Data for Flood Disaster and Transportation Infrastructure Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schnebele, Emily K.

2013-01-01

Flooding is the most frequently occurring natural hazard on Earth; with catastrophic, large scale floods causing immense damage to people, property, and the environment. Over the past 20 years, remote sensing has become the standard technique for flood identification because of its ability to offer synoptic coverage. Unfortunately, remote sensing…

Landowner's perception of flood risk and preventive actions in estuarine environment: An empirical investigation.

PubMed

Rambonilaza, Tina; Joalland, Olivier; Brahic, Elodie

2016-09-15

Within Europe, flood and coastal risk management is undergoing a major paradigm shift as it moves from an approach dominated by investment in flood defence and control infrastructure to another one in which non-structural measures are favoured. One research challenge consists in developing a better understanding of local population risk perception and its effects on prevention and preparedness actions in order to improve social acceptability of adaptive flood risk management. Landowners' involvement in wetland management offer benefits beyond the line of their property. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to achieve an empirical understanding of risk perception and self-protective behaviour among the landowners of the riparian marshes in the Gironde Estuary, in France. Application of the psychometric approach reveals that flood risk perception among landowners can be characterised by three synthetic variables that indicate on the degree of exposure, the sense of control and knowledge of the risk. Examining the relationships between these perceived risk dimensions and landowners' participation in water structures management provides three profiles of self-protective behaviour distinguishing "vulnerable", "autonomous", and "passive" individuals. Finally, implications of our findings for the management of flood risk in estuarine environment which is often drained areas are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Valuing preferences over stormwater management outcomes including improved hydrologic function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LondoñO Cadavid, Catalina; Ando, Amy W.

2013-07-01

Stormwater runoff causes environmental problems such as flooding, soil erosion, and water pollution. Conventional stormwater management has focused primarily on flood reduction, while a new generation of decentralized stormwater solutions yields ancillary benefits such as healthier aquatic habitat, improved surface water quality, and increased water table recharge. Previous research has estimated values for flood reduction from stormwater management, but no estimates exist for the willingness to pay (WTP) for some of the other environmental benefits of alternative approaches to stormwater control. This paper uses a choice experiment survey of households in Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, to estimate the values of several attributes of stormwater management outcomes. We analyzed data from 131 surveyed households in randomly selected neighborhoods. We find that people value reduced basement flooding more than reductions in yard or street flooding, but WTP for basement flood reduction in the area only exists if individuals are currently experiencing significant flooding themselves. Citizens value both improved water quality and improved hydrologic function and aquatic habitat from runoff reduction. Thus, widespread investment in low impact development stormwater solutions could have very large total benefits, and stormwater managers should be wary of policies and infrastructure plans that reduce flooding at the expense of water quality and aquatic habitat.

Disaster protection of transport infrastructure and mobility using flood risk modeling and geospatial visualization.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

infrastructure networks are essential to sustain our economy, society and quality of life. Natural disasters cost lives, infrastructure destruction, and economic losses. In 2013 over 28 million people were displaced worldwide by natural disasters wit...

Using Minimax Regret Optimization to Search for Multi-Stakeholder Solutions to Deeply Uncertain Flood Hazards under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirshen, P. H.; Hecht, J. S.; Vogel, R. M.

2015-12-01

Prescribing long-term urban floodplain management plans under the deep uncertainty of climate change is a challenging endeavor. To address this, we have implemented and tested with stakeholders a parsimonious multi-stage mixed integer programming (MIP) model that identifies the optimal time period(s) for implementing publicly and privately financed adaptation measures. Publicly funded measures include reach-scale flood barriers, flood insurance, and buyout programs to encourage property owners in flood-prone areas to retreat from the floodplain. Measures privately funded by property owners consist of property-scale floodproofing options, such as raising building foundations, as well as investments in flood insurance or retreat from flood-prone areas. The objective function to minimize the sum of flood control and damage costs in all planning stages for different property types during floods of different severities. There are constraints over time for flow mass balances, construction of flood management alternatives and their cumulative implementation, budget allocations, and binary decisions. Damages are adjusted for flood control investments. In recognition of the deep uncertainty of GCM-derived climate change scenarios, we employ the minimax regret criterion to identify adaptation portfolios robust to different climate change trajectories. As an example, we identify publicly and privately funded adaptation measures for a stylized community based on the estuarine community of Exeter, New Hampshire, USA. We explore the sensitivity of recommended portfolios to different ranges of climate changes, and costs associated with economies of scale and flexible infrastructure design as well as different municipal budget constraints.

The impact of floods in hospital and mitigation measures: A literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, N. A.; Shafii, H.; Omar, R.

2017-11-01

In late December 2014, the flood was most significant and largest recorded specifically in the Kelantan, Malaysia. It was considered to be a “tsunami like disaster” in which 202,000 victims were displaced and causing widespread collapse of public infrastructure. Flooding of hospital results in interruption of business, loss of infrastructure, such as electrical power and water supplies, increased difficulty in providing routine medical and increased patient admissions and nursing care for patients with chronic diseases, such as renal failure, diabetes, cancer, cystic fibrosis and mental illness. The aimed of this paper to identify the best of measures for reduce the risk of flood in hospital. Method of this paper uses the previous study result. Several related previous study can be used as measures to mitigation flood risk in Malaysian hospitals. Early stage research of related studies hope to help add more information to assist researchers in reducing the risk of flooding in hospital. The findings with proper pre-event preparation framework for mitigation flood risk of hospitals, the continuing medical services can be provided to patient especially during emergency.

What hydrological dynamics emerge from the interaction of land conversion and flood levee construction? Using dynamical systems models to explore the development of California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Watersheds.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, S. E.; Hutton, P.; Sivapalan, M.; MacVean, L. J.

2016-12-01

The hydrological impacts of land development include the simultaneous modifications of land cover, water abstraction and hydraulics. While reservoir construction and irrigation offer water managers de facto control of the hydrologic budget in the upper and middle reaches of river basins, the pattern of development in lowland areas incorporates drainage of wetlands, leveeing of flood plains, and rain-fed agriculture. The resulting hydrological function is then an emergent property of the interaction of land use change with flood control infrastructure. Using the lowland areas of California's Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers as a motivating case study, we showed that this emergent behavior arises from two key interacting stochastic processes: one governing the water available to and used by dryland agriculture, and one governing the spatial dynamics of near-channel flooding impounded by levees. Comparable annual water balance dynamics can arise under managed and unmanaged conditions. Similarities in water balance, however, can mask large differences in seasonality and channel hydraulics.

Flooding and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in Massachusetts: A case-crossover study.

EPA Science Inventory

Introduction: Floods and other severe weather events are anticipated to increase as a result of global climate change. Floods can lead to outbreaks of gastroenteritis and other infectious diseases due to disruption of sewage and water infrastructure and impacts on san...

Using FEMA FIS, HAZUS and WMOST to Evaluate Effectiveness of GI in Moderating Flood-Related Risks

EPA Science Inventory

The ability to accurately assess flood-related risks and costs as well as the effectiveness of green infrastructure on moderating those risks is critical for both emergency management and long-term planning. Potential flooding depths, land use and building conditions are needed ...

Understanding the relationships between household decisions and infrastructure investment in disaster recovery : cases from Superstorm Sandy : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

Hurricanes, storms and floods damage roads, bridges, transit lines and other elements of our : transportation infrastructure. Restoring the transportation infrastructure is widely recognized as an : important element of short-term recovery as the rec...

Preparing for Local Adaptation: Understanding Flood Risk Perceptions in Pittsburgh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klima, K.; Wong-Parodi, G.

2015-12-01

The City of Pittsburgh experiences numerous floods every year. Aging and insufficient infrastructure contribute to flash floods and to over 20 billion gallons of combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating Pittsburgh's streets, basements, and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme precipitation events in Western Pennsylvania. For a stormwater adaptation plan to be implemented effectively, the City will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop these communications effectively, the city and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. Here we seek to (1) identify Pittsburgh residents' knowledge level, risk perception and attitudes towards flooding and storm water management, and (2) pre-test communications meant to inform and empower Pittsburghers about flood risks and adaptation strategies. We conduct a city-wide survey of 10,000 Pittsburgh renters and homeowners from four life situations: high risk, above poverty; high-risk, below poverty; low risk, above poverty; and low-risk, below poverty. Mixed media recruitment strategies (online and paper-based solicitations guided/organized by community organizations) assist in reaching all subpopulations. Preliminary results suggest participants know what stormwater runoff is, but have a weak understanding of how stormwater interacts with natural and built systems. Furthermore, although participants have a good understanding of the difference between green and gray infrastructure, this does not translate into a change in their willingness to pay for green infrastructure adaptation. This suggests additional communications about flood risks and adaptation strategies.

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Waichler, Scott R.

Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience formore » the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.« less

Delivering integrated HAZUS-MH flood loss analyses and flood inundation maps over the Web.

PubMed

Hearn, Paul P; Longenecker, Herbert E; Aguinaldo, John J; Rahav, Ami N

2013-01-01

Catastrophic flooding is responsible for more loss of life and damages to property than any other natural hazard. Recently developed flood inundation mapping technologies make it possible to view the extent and depth of flooding on the land surface over the Internet; however, by themselves these technologies are unable to provide estimates of losses to property and infrastructure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) HAZUS-MH software is extensively used to conduct flood loss analyses in the United States, providing a nationwide database of population and infrastructure at risk. Unfortunately, HAZUS-MH requires a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) workstation and a trained operator, and analyses are not adapted for convenient delivery over the Web. This article describes a cooperative effort by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and FEMA to make HAZUS-MH output GIS and Web compatible and to integrate these data with digital flood inundation maps in USGS's newly developed Inundation Mapping Web Portal. By running the computationally intensive HAZUS-MH flood analyses offline and converting the output to a Web-GIS compatible format, detailed estimates of flood losses can now be delivered to anyone with Internet access, thus dramatically increasing the availability of these forecasts to local emergency planners and first responders.

Delivering integrated HAZUS-MH flood loss analyses and flood inundation maps over the Web

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hearn,, Paul P.; Longenecker, Herbert E.; Aguinaldo, John J.; Rahav, Ami N.

2013-01-01

Catastrophic flooding is responsible for more loss of life and damages to property than any other natural hazard. Recently developed flood inundation mapping technologies make it possible to view the extent and depth of flooding on the land surface over the Internet; however, by themselves these technologies are unable to provide estimates of losses to property and infrastructure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA's) HAZUS-MH software is extensively used to conduct flood loss analyses in the United States, providing a nationwide database of population and infrastructure at risk. Unfortunately, HAZUS-MH requires a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) workstation and a trained operator, and analyses are not adapted for convenient delivery over the Web. This article describes a cooperative effort by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and FEMA to make HAZUS-MH output GIS and Web compatible and to integrate these data with digital flood inundation maps in USGS’s newly developed Inundation Mapping Web Portal. By running the computationally intensive HAZUS-MH flood analyses offline and converting the output to a Web-GIS compatible format, detailed estimates of flood losses can now be delivered to anyone with Internet access, thus dramatically increasing the availability of these forecasts to local emergency planners and first responders.

Evaluation of Urban Drainage Infrastructure: New York City Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamidi, A.; Grossberg, M.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2017-12-01

Flood response in an urban area is the product of interactions of spatially and temporally varying rainfall and infrastructures. In urban areas, however, the complex sub-surface networks of tunnels, waste and storm water drainage systems are often inaccessible, pose challenges for modeling and prediction of the drainage infrastructure performance. The increased availability of open data in cities is an emerging information asset for a better understanding of the dynamics of urban water drainage infrastructure. This includes crowd sourced data and community reporting. A well-known source of this type of data is the non-emergency hotline "311" which is available in many US cities, and may contain information pertaining to the performance of physical facilities, condition of the environment, or residents' experience, comfort and well-being. In this study, seven years of New York City 311 (NYC311) call during 2010-2016 is employed, as an alternative approach for identifying the areas of the city most prone to sewer back up flooding. These zones are compared with the hydrologic analysis of runoff flooding zones to provide a predictive model for the City. The proposed methodology is an example of urban system phenomenology using crowd sourced, open data. A novel algorithm for calculating the spatial distribution of flooding complaints across NYC's five boroughs is presented in this study. In this approach, the features that represent reporting bias are separated from those that relate to actual infrastructure system performance. The sewer backup results are assessed with the spatial distribution of runoff in NYC during 2010-2016. With advances in radar technologies, a high spatial-temporal resolution data set for precipitation is available for most of the United States that can be implemented in hydrologic analysis of dense urban environments. High resolution gridded Stage IV radar rainfall data along with the high resolution spatially distributed land cover data are employed to investigate the urban pluvial flooding. The monthly results of excess runoff are compared with the sewer backup in NYC to build a predictive model of flood zones according to the 311 phone calls.

Optimal control of diarrhea transmission in a flood evacuation zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erwina, N.; Aldila, D.; Soewono, E.

2014-03-01

Evacuation of residents and diarrhea disease outbreak in evacuation zone have become serious problem that frequently happened during flood periods. Limited clean water supply and infrastructure in evacuation zone contribute to a critical spread of diarrhea. Transmission of diarrhea disease can be reduced by controlling clean water supply and treating diarrhea patients properly. These treatments require significant amount of budget, which may not be fulfilled in the fields. In his paper, transmission of diarrhea disease in evacuation zone using SIRS model is presented as control optimum problem with clean water supply and rate of treated patients as input controls. Existence and stability of equilibrium points and sensitivity analysis are investigated analytically for constant input controls. Optimum clean water supply and rate of treatment are found using optimum control technique. Optimal results for transmission of diarrhea and the corresponding controls during the period of observation are simulated numerically. The optimum result shows that transmission of diarrhea disease can be controlled with proper combination of water supply and rate of treatment within allowable budget.

Nonstructural Approaches and Working with Nature: Caño Martin Peña, Puerto Rico, Green Infrastructure Typologies

EPA Science Inventory

Caño Martin Peña, San Juan, Puerto Rico – this Smart Growth Implementation Assistance initiative will highlight how green infrastructure can mitigate flooding by working in tandem with proposed improvements to conventional drainage infrastructure, address wate...

Translating Uncertain Sea Level Projections Into Infrastructure Impacts Using a Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, Hamed; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Matthew, Richard A.; Mazdiyasni, Omid

2017-12-01

Climate change may affect ocean-driven coastal flooding regimes by both raising the mean sea level (msl) and altering ocean-atmosphere interactions. For reliable projections of coastal flood risk, information provided by different climate models must be considered in addition to associated uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a framework to project future coastal water levels and quantify the resulting flooding hazard to infrastructure. We use Bayesian Model Averaging to generate a weighted ensemble of storm surge predictions from eight climate models for two coastal counties in California. The resulting ensembles combined with msl projections, and predicted astronomical tides are then used to quantify changes in the likelihood of road flooding under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the near-future (1998-2063) and mid-future (2018-2083). The results show that road flooding rates will be significantly higher in the near-future and mid-future compared to the recent past (1950-2015) if adaptation measures are not implemented.

Model simulations of potential contribution of the proposed Huangpu Gate to flood control in the Lake Taihu basin of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hanghui; Liu, Shuguang; Ye, Jianchun; Yeh, Pat J.-F.

2017-10-01

The Lake Taihu basin (36 895 km2), one of the most developed regions in China located in the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, has experienced increasing flood risk. The largest flood in history occurred in 1999 with a return period estimate of 200 years, considerably larger than the current capacity of the flood defense with a design return period of 50 years. Due to its flat saucer-like terrain, the capacity of the flood control system in this basin depends on flood control infrastructures and peripheral tidal conditions. The Huangpu River, an important river of the basin connecting Lake Taihu upstream and Yangtze River estuaries downstream, drains two-fifths of the entire basin. Since the water level in the Huangpu River is significantly affected by the high tide conditions in estuaries, constructing an estuary gate is considered an effective solution for flood mitigation. The main objective of this paper is to assess the potential contributions of the proposed Huangpu Gate to the flood control capacity of the basin. To achieve this goal, five different scenarios of flooding conditions and the associated gate operations are considered by using numerical model simulations. Results of quantitative analyses show that the Huangpu Gate is effective for evacuating floodwaters. It can help to reduce both peak values and duration of high water levels in Lake Taihu to benefit surrounding areas along the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River. The contribution of the gate to the flood control capacity is closely associated with its operation modes and duration. For the maximum potential contribution of the gate, the net outflow at the proposed site is increased by 52 %. The daily peak level is decreased by a maximum of 0.12 m in Lake Taihu, by maxima of 0.26-0.37 and 0.46-0.60 m in the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River, respectively, and by 0.05-0.39 m in the surrounding areas depending on the local topography. It is concluded that the proposed Huangpu Gate can reduce flood risk in the Lake Taihu basin, especially in those low-lying surrounding areas along the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River significantly, which is of great benefit to the flood management in the basin and the Yangtze River Delta.

Flood resilience technology, systems and toolls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garvin, S.; Kelly, D.

2012-04-01

In recent years there has been a general acceptance that the risk from flooding is increasing, primarily due to increased urbanization and the impact of climate change (Zevenbergen et al, 2010). Flood resilience technology (FRe T) is a term used to describe a collection of technologies, materials and products that are used to protect and allow recovery of buildings, communities and infrastructure from flooding. River or coastal flooding is the focus of the legislation, regulation and guidance that is intended to control development and ensure the risk to new properties is low. However, the cost of building and maintaining primary flood defense systems for rivers and coasts is becoming prohibitive and as such future flood management needs to consider a range of measures to manage risk, in particular improving the resilience of buildings, infrastructure and communities. Surface water flooding is now known to cause as much damage as coastal and riverine flooding combined and is as likely to be experienced by both existing and new developments. Therefore FRe T solutions need to be adaptable and flexible. Previous research has shown that barriers exist to the acceptance and use of FRe T by a range of stakeholders. This includes the need to deploy household level items in time, the uncertainty over the performance of FRe T in actual flood situations or reluctance to adopt new or unknown solutions. Investment by public authorities in FRe Technology in recent years has typically increased in countries such as the UK. However, there has been to date little consideration of the system within which the technology has been employed and there is a lack of tools to assist decision makers. The SMARTeST project (an EU FP7 research project) is addressing the issues involved in FRe technology implementation. The findings of the research will be presented, including case studies where the integrated approaches of technology, systems and tools have been considered. SMARTeST seeks to create an environment for innovation in FRe technology, using new approaches that will reduce the risks involved in function, deployment, performance. The paper will describe how alliances of manufacturers, test houses and research organizations can bring about innovation. (Reference; Zevenbergen C, et al, C22 Book, Urban Flood Management, 2010)

77 FR 37092 - Proposed Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-20

... Class III railroad infrastructure damaged by hurricanes, floods, and natural disasters that are located... President ( http://www.fema.gov/news/disasters.fema#sev1 ). Class II and Class III railroad infrastructure...

Annual timing of river floods in the Northeast United States: seasonal characterization and temporal trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, M. J.

2016-12-01

Increases in flood magnitude and frequency have been documented in climate-sensitive watersheds in the Northeast United States. Associated changes in inundation frequency and/or magnitude, or changes in stream channel form and function, can affect human uses of floodplain environments (e.g., dwellings or transportation infrastructure) as well as aquatic and riparian habitats. Historical changes in flood magnitude and frequency also have important implications for designing floodplain infrastructure and channel modifications because well-accepted statistical methods for design-flood prediction require flood records with stationary means and variances. Changes in flood timing during the year may also be impactful, but have not been studied in detail for the Northeast United States. For example, relatively modest shifts in the timing of winter/spring floods can affect the incidence of ice jam complications. Or, changes in spring or fall flood timing may positively or negatively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. With this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasonality in climate-sensitive watersheds of the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Temporal trends in the timing of floods within significant flood seasons at a site are then analyzed using a method that employs directional statistics. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. Documented changes in flood timing during the year are considered in the context of both potential historical impacts and expectations for future flood timing given regional climate change projections.

Climate and change: simulating flooding impacts on urban transport network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Dawson, Richard

2015-04-01

National-scale climate projections indicate that in the future there will be hotter and drier summers, warmer and wetter winters, together with rising sea levels. The frequency of extreme weather events is expected to increase, causing severe damage to the built environment and disruption of infrastructures (Dawson, 2007), whilst population growth and changed demographics are placing new demands on urban infrastructure. It is therefore essential to ensure infrastructure networks are robust to these changes. This research addresses these challenges by focussing on the development of probabilistic tools for managing risk by modelling urban transport networks within the context of extreme weather events. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of extreme weather events on urban environment, in particular infrastructure networks, through a combination of climate simulations and spatial representations. By overlaying spatial data on hazard thresholds from a flood model and a flood safety function, mitigated by potential adaptation strategies, different levels of disruption to commuting journeys on road networks are evaluated. The method follows the Catastrophe Modelling approach and it consists of a spatial model, combining deterministic loss models and probabilistic risk assessment techniques. It can be applied to present conditions as well as future uncertain scenarios, allowing the examination of the impacts alongside socio-economic and climate changes. The hazard is determined by simulating free surface water flooding, with the software CityCAT (Glenis et al., 2013). The outputs are overlapped to the spatial locations of a simple network model in GIS, which uses journey-to-work (JTW) observations, supplemented with speed and capacity information. To calculate the disruptive effect of flooding on transport networks, a function relating water depth to safe driving car speed has been developed by combining data from experimental reports (Morris et al., 2011) safety literature (Great Britain Department for Transport, 1999), analysis of videos of cars driving through floodwater, and expert judgement. A preliminary analysis has been run in the Tyne & Wear (in North-East England) region to demonstrate how the analysis can be used to assess the disruptions for commuter journeys due to flooding and will be demonstrated in this paper. The research will also investigate the effectiveness of adaptation strategies for extreme rainfall events, such as permeable surfaces and roof storages for buildings. Multiple scenarios (from the every-day-rainfall to the extreme weather phenomena) will be modelled, with different rainfall rates, rainfall durations and return periods. The comparison between the scenarios in which no interventions are adopted and those improved by one of the adaptation option will be compared to determine the cost-effectiveness of the solution considered. Integrating spatial analysis of transport use with an urban flood model and flood safety function enables the investigation of the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks. Further work will develop the analysis in a number of ways (i) testing a range of flood events with different severity and frequency, (ii) exploration of the influence of climate and socio-economic change (iii) analysis of multiple hazard events and (iv) consideration of cascading disruption across different infrastructure networks.

Assessing and optimising flood control options along the Arachthos river floodplain (Epirus, Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drosou, Athina; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Lykou, Archontia; Kossieris, Panagiotis; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Mamassis, Nikos

2015-04-01

We present a multi-criteria simulation-optimization framework for the optimal design and setting of flood protection structures along river banks. The methodology is tested in the lower course of the Arachthos River (Epirus, Greece), downstream of the hydroelectric dam of Pournari. The entire study area is very sensitive, particularly because the river crosses the urban area of Arta, which is located just after the dam. Moreover, extended agricultural areas that are crucial for the local economy are prone to floods. In the proposed methodology we investigate two conflicting criteria, i.e. the minimization of flood hazards (due to damages to urban infrastructures, crops, etc.) and the minimization of construction costs of the essential hydraulic structures (e.g. dikes). For the hydraulic simulation we examine two flood routing models, named 1D HEC-RAS and quasi-2D LISFLOOD, whereas the optimization is carried out through the Surrogate-Enhanced Evolutionary Annealing-Simplex (SE-EAS) algorithm that couples the strengths of surrogate modeling with the effectiveness and efficiency of the EAS method.

Flood Protection Ecosystem Services in the Coast of Puerto Rico: Associations Between Watershed Processes and Local Human Health and Well Being Indicators

EPA Science Inventory

Flood events are becoming increasingly important in coastal cities due to a projected increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. A potential strategy to promote coastal protection from these hazards is the use of green infrastructure to provide flood protection ecosyste...

Effects of forcing uncertainties in the improvement skills of assimilating satellite soil moisture retrievals into flood forecasting models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Floods have negative impacts on society, causing damages in infrastructures and industry, and in the worst cases, causing loss of human lives. Thus early and accurate warning is crucial to significantly reduce the impacts on public safety and economy. Reliable flood warning can be generated using ...

Distillation Column Flooding Predictor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

George E. Dzyacky

2010-11-23

The Flooding Predictor™ is a patented advanced control technology proven in research at the Separations Research Program, University of Texas at Austin, to increase distillation column throughput by over 6%, while also increasing energy efficiency by 10%. The research was conducted under a U. S. Department of Energy Cooperative Agreement awarded to George Dzyacky of 2ndpoint, LLC. The Flooding Predictor™ works by detecting the incipient flood point and controlling the column closer to its actual hydraulic limit than historical practices have allowed. Further, the technology uses existing column instrumentation, meaning no additional refining infrastructure is required. Refiners often push distillationmore » columns to maximize throughput, improve separation, or simply to achieve day-to-day optimization. Attempting to achieve such operating objectives is a tricky undertaking that can result in flooding. Operators and advanced control strategies alike rely on the conventional use of delta-pressure instrumentation to approximate the column’s approach to flood. But column delta-pressure is more an inference of the column’s approach to flood than it is an actual measurement of it. As a consequence, delta pressure limits are established conservatively in order to operate in a regime where the column is never expected to flood. As a result, there is much “left on the table” when operating in such a regime, i.e. the capacity difference between controlling the column to an upper delta-pressure limit and controlling it to the actual hydraulic limit. The Flooding Predictor™, an innovative pattern recognition technology, controls columns at their actual hydraulic limit, which research shows leads to a throughput increase of over 6%. Controlling closer to the hydraulic limit also permits operation in a sweet spot of increased energy-efficiency. In this region of increased column loading, the Flooding Predictor is able to exploit the benefits of higher liquid/vapor traffic that produce increased contact area and lead to substantial increases in separation efficiency – which translates to a 10% increase in energy efficiency on a BTU/bbl basis. The Flooding Predictor™ operates on the principle that between five to sixty minutes in advance of a flooding event, certain column variables experience an oscillation, a pre-flood pattern. The pattern recognition system of the Flooding Predictor™ utilizes the mathematical first derivative of certain column variables to identify the column’s pre-flood pattern(s). This pattern is a very brief, highly repeatable, simultaneous movement among the derivative values of certain column variables. While all column variables experience negligible random noise generated from the natural frequency of the process, subtle pre-flood patterns are revealed among sub-sets of the derivative values of column variables as the column approaches its hydraulic limit. The sub-set of column variables that comprise the pre-flood pattern is identified empirically through in a two-step process. First, 2ndpoint’s proprietary off-line analysis tool is used to mine historical data for pre-flood patterns. Second, the column is flood-tested to fine-tune the pattern recognition for commissioning. Then the Flooding Predictor™ is implemented as closed-loop advanced control strategy on the plant’s distributed control system (DCS), thus automating control of the column at its hydraulic limit.« less

Evaluating the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to Hydrometeorological Risks.

PubMed

Thacker, Scott; Kelly, Scott; Pant, Raghav; Hall, Jim W

2018-01-01

Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the "do nothing" case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks. In doing so, we outline an infrastructure risk assessment that incorporates interdependence, user demands, and potential failure-related economic losses. Individual infrastructure assets are intersected with probabilistic hazard maps to calculate expected annual damages. Protection measure costs are integrated to calculate risk reduction and associated discounted benefits, which are used to explore the business case for investment in adaptation. A demonstration of the methodology is provided for flood protection of major electricity substations in England and Wales. We conclude that the ongoing adaptation program for major electricity assets is highly cost beneficial. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Climatic and anthropogenic controls on Mississippi River floods: a multi-proxy palaeoflood approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, S. E.; Therrell, M. D.; Remo, J. W.; Giosan, L.; Donnelly, J. P.

2017-12-01

Over the last century, many of the world's major rivers have been modified for the purposes of flood mitigation, power generation, and commercial navigation. Engineering modifications to the Mississippi River system have altered the river's sediment budget and channel morphology, but the influence of these modifications on flood risk is debated. Detecting and attributing changes in river discharge is challenging because instrumental streamflow records are often too short to evaluate the range of natural hydrological variability prior to the establishment of flood mitigation infrastructure. Here we show that multi-decadal trends of flood risk on the lower Mississippi River are strongly modulated by dynamical modes of climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), but that artificial channelization has greatly amplified flood magnitudes over the last century. Our results, based on a multi-proxy reconstruction of flood frequency and magnitude spanning the last five hundred years that combines sedimentary, tree-ring, and instrumental records, reveal that the magnitude of the 100-year flood has increased by 20% over the period of record, with 75% of this increase attributed to river engineering. We conclude that the interaction of human alterations to the Mississippi River system with dynamical modes of climate variability has elevated the current flood risk to levels that are unprecedented within the last five centuries.

The Impact of Corps Flood Control Reservoirs in the June 2008 Upper Mississippi Flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charley, W. J.; Stiman, J. A.

2008-12-01

The US Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for a multitude of flood control project on the Mississippi River and its tributaries, including levees that protect land from flooding, and dams to help regulate river flows. The first six months of 2008 were the wettest on record in the upper Mississippi Basin. During the first 2 weeks of June, rainfall over the Midwest ranged from 6 to as much as 16 inches, overwhelming the flood protection system, causing massive flooding and damage. Most severely impacted were the States of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Wisconsin. In Iowa, flooding occurred on almost every river in the state. On the Iowa River, record flooding occurred from Marshalltown, Iowa, downstream to its confluence with the Mississippi River. At several locations, flooding exceeded the 500-year event. The flooding affected agriculture, transportation, and infrastructure, including homes, businesses, levees, and other water-control structures. It has been estimated that there was at least 7 billion dollars in damages. While the flooding in Iowa was extraordinary, Corps of Engineers flood control reservoirs helped limit damage and prevent loss of life, even though some reservoirs were filled beyond their design capacity. Coralville Reservoir on the Iowa River, for example, filled to 135% of its design flood storage capacity, with stage a record five feet over the crest of the spillway. In spite of this, the maximum reservoir release was limited to 39,500 cfs, while a peak inflow of 57,000 cfs was observed. CWMS, the Corps Water Management System, is used to help regulate Corps reservoirs, as well as track and evaluate flooding and flooding potential. CWMS is a comprehensive data acquisition and hydrologic modeling system for short-term decision support of water control operations in real time. It encompasses data collection, validation and transformation, data storage, visualization, real time model simulation for decision-making support, and data dissemination. The system uses precipitation and flow data, collected in real-time, along with forecasted flow from the National Weather Service to model and optimize reservoir operations and forecast downstream flows and stages, providing communities accurate and timely information to aid their flood-fighting. This involves integrating several simulation modeling programs, including HEC-HMS to forecast flows, HEC-ResSim to model reservoir operations and HEC-RAS to compute forecasted stage hydrographs. An inundation boundary and depth map of water in the flood plain can be calculated from the HEC-RAS results using ArcInfo. By varying future precipitation and releases, engineers can evaluate different "What if?" scenarios. The effectiveness of this tool and Corps reservoirs are examined.

Geo-infrastructure post-flood damage assessment, repair and mitigation strategies : tech transfer summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-09-01

The 2011 Missouri river flooding caused damage to many geoinfrastructure : systems including levees, bridge abutments/foundations, : paved and unpaved roadways, culverts, and embankment slopes in : western Iowa. The total reported direct cost to repa...

Simulating storm surge inundation and damage potential within complex port facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mawdsley, Robert; French, Jon; Fujiyama, Taku; Achutan, Kamalasudhan

2017-04-01

Storm surge inundation of port facilities can cause damage to critical elements of infrastructure, significantly disrupt port operations and cause downstream impacts on vital supply chains. A tidal surge in December 2013 in the North Sea partly flooded the Port of Immingham, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. This flooding caused damage to port and rail transport infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This research aims to improve resilience to storm surges using hydrodynamic modelling coupled to an agent-based model of port operations. Using the December 2013 event to validate flood extent, depth and duration, we ran a high resolution hydrodynamic simulation using the open source Telemac 2D finite element code. The underlying Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was derived from Environment Agency LiDAR data, with ground truthing of the flood defences along the port frontage. Major infrastructure and buildings are explicitly resolved with varying degrees of permeability. Telemac2D simulations are run in parallel and take only minutes on a single 16 cpu compute node. Inundation characteristics predicted using Telemac 2D differ from a simple Geographical Information System 'bath-tub' analysis of the DEM based upon horizontal application of the maximum water level across the port topography. The hydrodynamic simulation predicts less extensive flooding and more closely matches observed flood extent. It also provides more precise depth and duration curves. Detailed spatial flood depth and duration maps were generated for a range of tide and surge scenarios coupled to mean sea-level rise projections. These inundation scenarios can then be integrated with critical asset databases and an agent-based model of port operation (MARS) that is capable of simulating storm surge disruption along wider supply chains. Port operators are able to act on information from a particular flood scenario to perform adaptive responses (e.g. pre-emptive relocation of equipment), as well as estimate the likely duration of any disruption to port and supply chain operation. High resolution numerical inundation modelling, coupled to accurate storm surge forecasting and an agent based port operation model, thus has the potential to significantly reduce damage and disruption costs associated with storm surge impacts on port infrastructure and systems.

Integration of Grid and Sensor Web for Flood Monitoring and Risk Assessment from Heterogeneous Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

2013-04-01

Over last decades we have witnessed the upward global trend in natural disaster occurrence. Hydrological and meteorological disasters such as floods are the main contributors to this pattern. In recent years flood management has shifted from protection against floods to managing the risks of floods (the European Flood risk directive). In order to enable operational flood monitoring and assessment of flood risk, it is required to provide an infrastructure with standardized interfaces and services. Grid and Sensor Web can meet these requirements. In this paper we present a general approach to flood monitoring and risk assessment based on heterogeneous geospatial data acquired from multiple sources. To enable operational flood risk assessment integration of Grid and Sensor Web approaches is proposed [1]. Grid represents a distributed environment that integrates heterogeneous computing and storage resources administrated by multiple organizations. SensorWeb is an emerging paradigm for integrating heterogeneous satellite and in situ sensors and data systems into a common informational infrastructure that produces products on demand. The basic Sensor Web functionality includes sensor discovery, triggering events by observed or predicted conditions, remote data access and processing capabilities to generate and deliver data products. Sensor Web is governed by the set of standards, called Sensor Web Enablement (SWE), developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Different practical issues regarding integration of Sensor Web with Grids are discussed in the study. We show how the Sensor Web can benefit from using Grids and vice versa. For example, Sensor Web services such as SOS, SPS and SAS can benefit from the integration with the Grid platform like Globus Toolkit. The proposed approach is implemented within the Sensor Web framework for flood monitoring and risk assessment, and a case-study of exploiting this framework, namely the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project, is described. The project was created as a testbed for evaluating and prototyping key technologies for rapid acquisition and distribution of data products for decision support systems to monitor floods and enable flood risk assessment. The system provides access to real-time products on rainfall estimates and flood potential forecast derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) mission with lag time of 6 h, alerts from the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) with lag time of 4 h, and the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) model to generate alerts. These are alerts are used to trigger satellite observations. With deployed SPS service for NASA's EO-1 satellite it is possible to automatically task sensor with re-image capability of less 8 h. Therefore, with enabled computational and storage services provided by Grid and cloud infrastructure it was possible to generate flood maps within 24-48 h after trigger was alerted. To enable interoperability between system components and services OGC-compliant standards are utilized. [1] Hluchy L., Kussul N., Shelestov A., Skakun S., Kravchenko O., Gripich Y., Kopp P., Lupian E., "The Data Fusion Grid Infrastructure: Project Objectives and Achievements," Computing and Informatics, 2010, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 319-334.

Monitoring of levees, bridges, pipelines, and other critical infrastructure during the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River Basin: Chapter J in 2011 floods of the central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Densmore, Brenda K.; Burton, Bethany L.; Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Cannia, James C.; Huizinga, Richard J.

2014-01-01

During the 2011 Mississippi River Basin flood, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated aspects of critical river infrastructure at the request of and in support of local, State, and Federal Agencies. Geotechnical and hydrographic data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey at numerous locations were able to provide needed information about 2011 flood effects to those managing the critical infrastructure. These data were collected and processed in a short time frame to provide managers the ability to make a timely evaluation of the safety of the infrastructure and, when needed, to take action to secure and protect critical infrastructure. Critical infrastructure surveyed by the U.S. Geological Survey included levees, bridges, pipeline crossings, power plant intakes and outlets, and an electrical transmission tower. Capacitively coupled resistivity data collected along the flood-protection levees surrounding the Omaha Public Power District Nebraska City power plant (Missouri River Levee Unit R573), mapped the near-subsurface electrical properties of the levee and the materials immediately below it. The near-subsurface maps provided a better understanding of the levee construction and the nature of the lithology beneath the levee. Comparison of the capacitively coupled resistivity surveys and soil borings indicated that low-resistivity value material composing the levee generally is associated with lean clay and silt to about 2 to 4 meters below the surface, overlying a more resistive layer associated with sand deposits. In general, the resistivity structure becomes more resistive to the south and the southern survey sections correlate well with the borehole data that indicate thinner clay and silt at the surface and thicker sand sequences at depth in these sections. With the resistivity data Omaha Public Power District could focus monitoring efforts on areas with higher resistivity values (coarser-grained deposits or more loosely compacted section), which typically are more prone to erosion or scour. Data collected from multibeam echosounder hydrographic surveys at selected bridges aided State agencies in evaluating the structural integrity of the bridges during the flood, by assessing the amount of scour present around piers and abutments. Hydrographic surveys of the riverbed detected scour depths ranging from zero (no scour) to approximately 5.8 meters in some areas adjacent to North Dakota bridge piers, zero to approximately 6 meters near bridge piers in Nebraska, and zero to approximately 10.4 meters near bridge piers in Missouri. Substructural support elements of some bridge piers in North Dakota, Nebraska, and Missouri that usually are buried were exposed to moving water and sediment. At five Missouri bridge piers the depth of scour left less than 1.8 meters of bed material between the bottom of the scour hole and bedrock. State agencies used this information along with bridge design and construction information to determine if reported scour depths would have a substantial effect on the stability of the structure. Multibeam echosounder hydrographic surveys of the riverbed near pipeline crossings did not detect exposed pipelines. However, analysis of the USGS survey data by pipeline companies aided in their evaluation of pipeline safety and led one company to further investigate the safety of their line and assisted another company in getting one offline pipeline back into operation. Multibeam echosounder hydrographic surveys of the banks, riverbed, and underwater infrastructure at Omaha Public Power District power plants documented the bed and scour conditions. These datasets were used by Omaha Public Power District to evaluate the effects that the flood had on operation, specifically to evaluate if scour during the peak of the flood or sediment deposition during the flood recession would affect the water intake structures. Hydrographic surveys at an Omaha Public Power District electrical transmission tower documented scour so that they could evaluate the structural integrity of the tower as well as have the information needed to make proper repairs after flood waters receded.

Lessons learned from Khartoum flash flood impacts: An integrated assessment.

PubMed

Mahmood, Mohamad Ibrahim; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Horn, Finlay; Saad, Suhair A G

2017-12-01

This study aims at enabling the compilation of key lessons for decision makers and urban planners in rapidly urbanizing cities regarding the identification of representative, chief causal natural and human factors for the increased level of flash flood risk. To achieve this, the impacts of flash flood events of 2013 and 2014 in the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, were assessed using seven integrated approaches, i.e. rainfall data analysis, document analysis of affected people and houses, observational fieldwork in the worst flood affected areas, people's perception of causes and mitigation measures through household interviews, reported drinking water quality, reported water-related diseases and social risk assessment. Several lessons have been developed as follows. Urban planners must recognize the devastating risks of building within natural pathways of ephemeral watercourses. They must also ensure effective drainage infrastructures and physio-geographical investigations prior to developing urban areas. The existing urban drainage systems become ineffective due to blockage by urban waste. Building of unauthorized drainage and embankment structures by locals often cause greater flood problems than normal. The urban runoff is especially problematic for residential areas built within low-lying areas having naturally low infiltration capacity, as surface water can rapidly collect within hollows and depressions, or beside elevated roads that preclude the free flow of floodwater. Weak housing and infrastructure quality are especially vulnerable to flash flooding and even to rainfall directly. Establishment of services infrastructure is imperative for flash flood disaster risk reduction. Water supply should be from lower aquifers to avoid contaminant groundwater. Regular monitoring of water quality and archiving of its indicators help identify water-related diseases and sources of water contamination in the event of environmental disasters such as floods. Though the understanding of risk perception by the locals is an important aspect of the decision making and planning processes, it should be advanced enough for proper awareness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrometeorological network for flood monitoring and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koussis, Antonis D.; Lykoudis, Spyros; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Christofides, Antonis; Karavokiros, George; Kappos, Nikos; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2013-08-01

Due to its highly fragmented geomorphology, Greece comprises hundreds of small- to medium-size hydrological basins, in which often the terrain is fairly steep and the streamflow regime ephemeral. These are typically affected by flash floods, occasionally causing severe damages. Yet, the vast majority of them lack flow-gauging infrastructure providing systematic hydrometric data at fine time scales. This has obvious impacts on the quality and reliability of flood studies, which typically use simplistic approaches for ungauged basins that do not consider local peculiarities in sufficient detail. In order to provide a consistent framework for flood design and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk -a key issue of the 2007/60/EC Directive- it is essential to improve the monitoring infrastructures by taking advantage of modern technologies for remote control and data management. In this context and in the research project DEUCALION, we have recently installed and are operating, in four pilot river basins, a telemetry-based hydro-meteorological network that comprises automatic stations and is linked to and supported by relevant software. The hydrometric stations measure stage, using 50-kHz ultrasonic pulses or piezometric sensors, or both stage (piezometric) and velocity via acoustic Doppler radar; all measurements are being temperature-corrected. The meteorological stations record air temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. Data transfer is made via GPRS or mobile telephony modems. The monitoring network is supported by a web-based application for storage, visualization and management of geographical and hydro-meteorological data (ENHYDRIS), a software tool for data analysis and processing (HYDROGNOMON), as well as an advanced model for flood simulation (HYDROGEIOS). The recorded hydro-meteorological observations are accessible over the Internet through the www-application. The system is operational and its functionality has been implemented as open-source software for use in a wide range of applications in the field of water resources monitoring and management, such as the demonstration case study outlined in this work.

Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

PubMed

Porse, Erik

2014-01-01

Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering.

Estimation of Damage Costs Associated with Flood Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, T. A.; Wauthier, C.; Zipp, K.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the possibility of creating a mathematical function that enables the estimation of flood-damage costs. We begin by examining the costs associated with past flood events in the United States. The data on these tropical storms and hurricanes are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the location, extent of flooding, and damage reparation costs identified, we analyze variables such as: number of inches rained, land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. We seek to identify the leading drivers of high flood-damage costs and understand which variables play a large role in the costliness of these weather events. Upon completion of our mathematical analysis, we turn out attention to the 2017 natural disaster of Texas. We divide the region, as we did above, by land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. Then, we overlay the number of inches rained in those regions onto the divided landscape and apply our function. We hope to use these findings to estimate the potential flood-damage costs of Hurricane Harvey. This information is then transformed into a hazard map that could provide citizens and businesses of flood-stricken zones additional resources for their insurance selection process.

Damage assessment of bridge infrastructure subjected to flood-related hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalis, Panagiotis; Cahill, Paul; Bekić, Damir; Kerin, Igor; Pakrashi, Vikram; Lapthorne, John; Morais, João Gonçalo Martins Paulo; McKeogh, Eamon

2017-04-01

Transportation assets represent a critical component of society's infrastructure systems. Flood-related hazards are considered one of the main climate change impacts on highway and railway infrastructure, threatening the security and functionality of transportation systems. Of such hazards, flood-induced scour is a primarily cause of bridge collapses worldwide and one of the most complex and challenging water flow and erosion phenomena, leading to structural instability and ultimately catastrophic failures. Evaluation of scour risk under severe flood events is a particularly challenging issue considering that depth of foundations is very difficult to evaluate in water environment. The continual inspection, assessment and maintenance of bridges and other hydraulic structures under extreme flood events requires a multidisciplinary approach, including knowledge and expertise of hydraulics, hydrology, structural engineering, geotechnics and infrastructure management. The large number of bridges under a single management unit also highlights the need for efficient management, information sharing and self-informing systems to provide reliable, cost-effective flood and scour risk management. The "Intelligent Bridge Assessment Maintenance and Management System" (BRIDGE SMS) is an EU/FP7 funded project which aims to couple state-of-the art scientific expertise in multidisciplinary engineering sectors with industrial knowledge in infrastructure management. This involves the application of integrated low-cost structural health monitoring systems to provide real-time information towards the development of an intelligent decision support tool and a web-based platform to assess and efficiently manage bridge assets. This study documents the technological experience and presents results obtained from the application of sensing systems focusing on the damage assessment of water-hazards at bridges over watercourses in Ireland. The applied instrumentation is interfaced with an open-source platform that can offer a more economical remote monitoring solution. The results presented in this investigation provide an important guide for a multidisciplinary approach to bridge monitoring and can be used as a benchmark for the field application of cost-effective and robust sensing methods. This will deliver key information regarding the impact of water-related hazards at bridge structures through an integrated structural health monitoring and management system. Acknowledgement: The authors wish to acknowledge the financial support of the European Commission, through the Marie Curie action Industry-Academia Partnership and Pathways Network BRIDGE SMS (Intelligent Bridge Assessment Maintenance and Management System) - FP7-People-2013-IAPP- 612517.

Risk of the residents, infrastructure and water bodies by flash floods and sediment transport - assessment for scale of the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef; Bauer, Miroslav; Strouhal, Luděk; Jáchymová, Barbora; Devátý, Jan; David, Václav; Koudelka, Petr; Dočkal, Martin

2015-04-01

Pluvial and flash floods, related to massive sediment transport become phenomenon nowadays, under conditions of climate changes. Storm events, related to material damages appear at unexpected places and their effective control is only possible in form of prevention. To apply preventive measures, there have to be defined localities with reasonable reliability, which are endangered by surface runoff and sediment transport produced in the subcatchments, often at agriculturally used landscape. Classification of such localities, concerning of potential damages and magnitude of sediment transport shall be also included within the analyses, to design control measures effectively. Large scale project for whole territory of the Czech Republic (ca 80.000 km2) has therefore been granted b the Ministry of Interior of the Czech Republic, with the aim to define critical points, where interaction between surface runoff connected to massive sediment transport and infrastructure or vulnerable water bodies can occur and to classify them according to potential risk. Advanced GIS routines, based on analyses of land use, soil conditions and morphology had been used to determine the critical points - points, where significant surface runoff occurs and interacts with infrastructure and vulnerable water bodies, based exclusively on the contributing area - flow accumulation. In total, ca 150.000 critical points were determined within the Czech Republic. For each of critical points, its subcatchment had then been analyzed in detail, concerning of soil loss and sediment transport, using simulation model WATEM/SEDEM. The results were used for classification of potential risk of individual critical points, based on mean soil loss within subcatchment, total sediment transport trough the outlet point and subcatchment area. The classification has been done into 5 classes. The boundaries were determined by calibration survey and statistical analysis, performed at three experimental catchments area of 100 km2 each. Concentrated flow trajectory had then been analyzed trough urban areas and potential vulnerability of incident structures has been determined. Total hazard of infrastructure has been classified again into 5 categories for each individual critical point using risk matrix, combining threat and vulnerability features. Generalized control measures (changes in land-use, changes in agrotechnology, diverting linear measures or retention structures) were then introduced into mathematical model WATEM/SEDEM in number of scenarios, to allow effective design of control measures against surface runoff and sediment transport for each individual critical point. Result of the project will be public available by WEB application and shall be useful for government, local decision makers, for planning of development of communities and also optimization of effective design of flash floods control measures. The research has been supported by the research project VG20122015092.

Climatic control of Mississippi River flood hazard amplified by river engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, Samuel E.; Giosan, Liviu; Therrell, Matthew D.; Remo, Jonathan W. F.; Shen, Zhixiong; Sullivan, Richard M.; Wiman, Charlotte; O’Donnell, Michelle; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

2018-04-01

Over the past century, many of the world’s major rivers have been modified for the purposes of flood mitigation, power generation and commercial navigation. Engineering modifications to the Mississippi River system have altered the river’s sediment levels and channel morphology, but the influence of these modifications on flood hazard is debated. Detecting and attributing changes in river discharge is challenging because instrumental streamflow records are often too short to evaluate the range of natural hydrological variability before the establishment of flood mitigation infrastructure. Here we show that multi-decadal trends of flood hazard on the lower Mississippi River are strongly modulated by dynamical modes of climate variability, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but that the artificial channelization (confinement to a straightened channel) has greatly amplified flood magnitudes over the past century. Our results, based on a multi-proxy reconstruction of flood frequency and magnitude spanning the past 500 years, reveal that the magnitude of the 100-year flood (a flood with a 1 per cent chance of being exceeded in any year) has increased by 20 per cent over those five centuries, with about 75 per cent of this increase attributed to river engineering. We conclude that the interaction of human alterations to the Mississippi River system with dynamical modes of climate variability has elevated the current flood hazard to levels that are unprecedented within the past five centuries.

Climatic control of Mississippi River flood hazard amplified by river engineering.

PubMed

Munoz, Samuel E; Giosan, Liviu; Therrell, Matthew D; Remo, Jonathan W F; Shen, Zhixiong; Sullivan, Richard M; Wiman, Charlotte; O'Donnell, Michelle; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

2018-04-04

Over the past century, many of the world's major rivers have been modified for the purposes of flood mitigation, power generation and commercial navigation. Engineering modifications to the Mississippi River system have altered the river's sediment levels and channel morphology, but the influence of these modifications on flood hazard is debated. Detecting and attributing changes in river discharge is challenging because instrumental streamflow records are often too short to evaluate the range of natural hydrological variability before the establishment of flood mitigation infrastructure. Here we show that multi-decadal trends of flood hazard on the lower Mississippi River are strongly modulated by dynamical modes of climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but that the artificial channelization (confinement to a straightened channel) has greatly amplified flood magnitudes over the past century. Our results, based on a multi-proxy reconstruction of flood frequency and magnitude spanning the past 500 years, reveal that the magnitude of the 100-year flood (a flood with a 1 per cent chance of being exceeded in any year) has increased by 20 per cent over those five centuries, with about 75 per cent of this increase attributed to river engineering. We conclude that the interaction of human alterations to the Mississippi River system with dynamical modes of climate variability has elevated the current flood hazard to levels that are unprecedented within the past five centuries.

The impact of expert knowledge on natural hazard susceptibility assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlsson, Caroline; Kalantari, Zahra; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Lyon, Steve

2016-04-01

Road and railway networks are one of the key factors to a country's economic growth. Inadequate infrastructural networks could be detrimental to a society if the transport between locations are hindered or delayed. Logistical hindrances can often be avoided whereas natural hindrances are more difficult to control. One natural hindrance that can have a severe adverse effect on both infrastructure and society is flooding. Intense and heavy rainfall events can trigger other natural hazards such as landslides and debris flow. Disruptions caused by landslides are similar to that of floods and increase the maintenance cost considerably. The effect on society by natural disasters is likely to increase due to a changed climate with increasing precipitation. Therefore, there is a need for risk prevention and mitigation of natural hazards. Determining susceptible areas and incorporating them in the decision process may reduce the infrastructural harm. Spatial multi-criteria analysis (SMCA) is a part of decision analysis, which provides a set of procedures for analysing complex decision problems through a Geographic Information System (GIS). The objective and aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of expert judgements for inundation, landslide and debris flow susceptibility assessments through a SMCA approach using hydrological, geological and land use factors. The sensitivity of the SMCA model was tested in relation to each perspective and impact on the resulting susceptibility. A least cost path function was used to compare new alternative road lines with the existing ones. This comparison was undertaken to identify the resulting differences in the susceptibility assessments using expert judgements as well as historic incidences of flooding and landslides in order to discuss the usefulness of the model in road planning.

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management.

PubMed

Oddo, Perry C; Lee, Ben S; Garner, Gregory G; Srikrishnan, Vivek; Reed, Patrick M; Forest, Chris E; Keller, Klaus

2017-09-05

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevnina, Elena; Kourzeneva, Ekaterina; Kovalenko, Viktor; Vihma, Timo

2017-05-01

Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010-2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.

Urban Infrastructure, Channel-Floodplain Morphology and Flood Flow Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, A. J.; Smith, J. A.; Nelson, C. B.

2006-12-01

The relationship between the channel and the floodplain in urban settings is heavily influenced by (1) altered watershed hydrologic response and frequency distribution of flows, (2) channel enlargement resulting from altered hydrology under conditions of limited sediment supply, (3) direct modification of channels and floodplains for purposes of erosion mitigation, flood protection, commercial development and creation of public amenities, (4) valley constrictions and flow obstructions associated with bridges, culverts, road embankments and other types of floodplain encroachment causing fragmentation or longitudinal segmentation of the riparian corridor. Field observation of inundation patterns associated with recurring floods in the Baltimore metropolitan area is used in combination with 2-dimensional hydraulic modeling to simulate patterns of floodplain inundation and to explore the relationships between magnitude and shape of the flood hydrograph, morphology of the urban channel-floodplain system, and the frequency and extent of floodplain inundation. Case studies include a July 2004 flood associated with a 300-year 2-hour rainfall in a small (14.2 km2) urban watershed, as well as several other events caused by summer thunderstorms with shorter recurrence intervals that generated an extraordinary flood response. The influence of urban infrastructure on flood inundation and flow patterns is expressed in terms of altered (and hysteretic) stage-discharge relationships, stepped flood profiles, rapid longitudinal attenuation of flood waves, and transient flow reversals at confluences and constrictions. Given the current level of interest in restoration measures these patterns merit consideration in planning future development and mitigation efforts.

The future role of dams in the United States of America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Michelle; Lall, Upmanu; Allaire, Maura; Devineni, Naresh; Kwon, Hyun Han; Pal, Indrani; Raff, David; Wegner, David

2017-02-01

xml:id="wrcr22481-sec-1001" numbered="no">Storage and controlled distribution of water have been key elements of a human strategy to overcome the space and time variability of water, which have been marked by catastrophic droughts and floods throughout the course of civilization. In the United States, the peak of dam building occurred in the mid-20th century with knowledge limited to the scientific understanding and hydrologic records of the time. Ecological impacts were considered differently than current legislative and regulatory controls would potentially dictate. Additionally, future costs such as maintenance or removal beyond the economic design life were not fully considered. The converging risks associated with aging water storage infrastructure and uncertainty in climate in addition to the continuing need for water storage, flood protection, and hydropower result in a pressing need to address the state of dam infrastructure across the nation. Decisions regarding the future of dams in the United States may, in turn, influence regional water futures through groundwater outcomes, economic productivity, migration, and urban growth. We advocate for a comprehensive national water assessment and a formal analysis of the role dams play in our water future. We emphasize the urgent need for environmentally and economically sound strategies to integrate surface and groundwater storage infrastructure in local, regional, and national water planning considerations. A research agenda is proposed to assess dam failure impacts and the design, operation, and need for dams considering both paleo and future climate, utilization of groundwater resources, and the changing societal values toward the environment.

Improving global flood risk awareness through collaborative research: Id-Lab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, A.; Zijderveld, A.; Cumiskey, L.; Buckman, L.; Verlaan, M.; Baart, F.

2015-12-01

Scientific and end-user collaboration on operational flood risk modelling and forecasting requires an environment where scientists and end-users can physically work together and demonstrate, enhance and learn about new tools, methods and models for forecasting and warning purposes. Therefore, Deltares has built a real-time demonstration, training and research infrastructure ('operational' room and ICT backend). This research infrastructure supports various functions like (1) Real time response and disaster management, (2) Training, (3) Collaborative Research, (4) Demonstration. The research infrastructure will be used for a mixture of these functions on a regular basis by Deltares and a multitude of both scientists as well as end users such as universities, research institutes, consultants, governments and aid agencies. This infrastructure facilitates emergency advice and support during international and national disasters caused by rainfall, tropical cyclones or tsunamis. It hosts research flood and storm surge forecasting systems for global/continental/regional scale. It facilitates training for emergency & disaster management (along with hosting forecasting system user trainings in for instance the forecasting platform Delft-FEWS) both internally and externally. The facility is expected to inspire and initiate creative innovations by bringing together different experts from various organizations. The room hosts interactive modelling developments, participatory workshops and stakeholder meetings. State of the art tools, models and software, being applied across the globe are available and on display within the facility. We will present the Id-Lab in detail and we will put particular focus on the global operational forecasting systems GLOFFIS (Global Flood Forecasting Information System) and GLOSSIS (Global Storm Surge Information System).

Green Infrastructure Design Evaluation Using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool

EPA Science Inventory

In arid and semi-arid regions, green infrastructure (GI) can address several issues facing urban environments, including augmenting water supply, mitigating flooding, decreasing pollutant loads, and promoting greenness in the built environment. An optimum design captures stormwat...

Evaluation of Green Infrastructure Designs Using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool

EPA Science Inventory

In arid and semi-arid regions, green infrastructure (GI) can address several issues facing urban environments, including augmenting water supply, mitigating flooding, decreasing pollutant loads, and promoting greenness in the built environment. An optimum design captures stormwat...

A 500-year history of floods in the semi arid basins of south-eastern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez García, Carlos; Schulte, Lothar; Peña, Juan Carlos; Carvalho, Filpe; Brembilla, Carla

2016-04-01

Floods are one of the natural hazards with higher incidence in the south-eastern Spain, the driest region in Europe, causing fatalities, damage of infrastructure and economic losses. Flash-floods in semi arid environments are related to intensive rainfall which can last from few hours to days. These floods are violent and destructive because of their high discharges, sediment transport and aggradation processes in the flood plain. Also during historical times floods affected the population in the south-eastern Spain causing sever damage or in some cases the complete destruction of towns. Our studies focus on the flood reconstruction from historical sources of the Almanzora, Aguas and Antas river basins, which have a surface between 260-2600 km2. We have also compiled information from the Andarax river and compared the flood series with the Guadalentín and Segura basins from previous studies (Benito et. al., 2010 y Machado et al., 2011). Flood intensities have been classified in four levels according to the type of damage: 1) ordinary floods that only affect agriculture plots; 2) extraordinary floods which produce some damage to buildings and hydraulic infrastructure; 3) catastrophic floods which caused sever damage, fatalities and partial or complete destruction of towns. A higher damage intensity of +1 magnitude was assigned when the event is recorded from more than one major sub-basin (stretches and tributaries such as Huércal-Overa basin) or catchment (e.g. Antas River). In total 102 incidences of damages and 89 floods were reconstructed in the Almanzora (2.611 km2), Aguas (539 km2), Antas (261 km2) and Andarax (2.100 km2) catchments. The Almanzora River was affected by 36 floods (1550-2012). The highest events for the Almanzora River were in 1580, 1879, 1973 and 2012 producing many fatalities and destruction of several towns. In addition, we identified four flood-clusters 1750-1780, 1870-1900, 1960-1977 and 1989-2012 which coincides with the periods of increased flood frequencies in the Andarax catchment. However, only the 1870-1900 flood-cluster is synchronic with the Guadalentín and Segura flood-periods, whereas the rest of flood-episodes are non-synchronic. The 2012 event, the largest flood in the Almanzora river since the 1973 event, produced in the lower stretch less damage than in the middle stretch because of structural mitigation measures such as reservoir and artificial river channelling. However, in the lower Antas and Aguas rivers the situation is different. The damages increased in 2012 as a result from the increased exposure of tourism infrastructure in the floodplain near the coastline during the last two decades. Traditional settlements of rural societies were located also in the lower river stretches at a higher elevation (e.g. fluvial terraces, glacis, slopes) like today in the higher and middle catchments.

Flood inundation maps and water-surface profiles for tropical storm Irene and selected annual exceedance probability floods for Flint Brook and the Third Branch White River in Roxbury, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.; Lombard, Pamela J.

2014-01-01

Flint Brook, a tributary to the Third Branch White River in Roxbury, Vermont, has a history of flooding the Vermont Fish and Wildlife Department’s Roxbury Fish Culture Station (the hatchery) and surrounding infrastructure. Flooding resulting from tropical storm Irene on August 28–29, 2011, caused widespread destruction in the region, including extensive and costly damages to the State-owned hatchery and the transportation infrastructure in the Town of Roxbury, Vermont. Sections of State Route 12A were washed out, and several bridges and culverts on Oxbow Road, Thurston Hill Road, and the New England Central Railroad in Roxbury were heavily damaged. Record high peak-discharge estimates of 2,140 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) and 4,320 ft3/s were calculated for Flint Brook at its confluence with the Third Branch White River and for the Third Branch White River at about 350 feet (ft) downstream from the hatchery, respectively. The annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of the peak discharges for Flint Brook and the Third Branch White River were less than 0.2 percent (less than a one in 500 chance of occurring in a given year). Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses of Flint Brook and the Third Branch White River were done to investigate flooding at the hatchery in Roxbury and support efforts by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to assist State and local mitigation and reconstruction efforts. During the August 2011 flood, the majority of flow from Flint Brook (97 percent or 2,070 ft3/s) diverged from its primary watercourse due to a retaining wall failure immediately upstream of Oxbow Road and inundated the hatchery. Although a minor amount of flow from the Third Branch White River could have overtopped State Route 12A and spilled into the hatchery, the Third Branch White River did not cause flood damages or exacerbate flooding at the hatchery during the August 2011 flood. The Third Branch White River which flows adjacent to the hatchery does not flood the hatchery for the 10-, 2-, 1, or 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. The simulated water-surface elevations for August 2011 flood equal the elevations of State Route 12A about 500 ft downstream of Thurston Hill Road adjacent to the troughs between the rearing ponds. Four flood mitigation alternatives being considered by the Vermont Agency of Transportation to improve the hydraulic performance of Flint Brook and reduce the risk of flooding at the hatchery include: (A) no changes to the infrastructure or existing alignment of Flint Brook (existing conditions [2014]), (B) structural changes to the bridges and the existing retaining wall along Flint Brook, (C) realignment of Flint Brook to flow along the south side of Oxbow Road to accommodate larger stream discharges, and (D) a diversion channel for flows greater than 1-percent annual exceedance probability. Although the 10-, 2-, and 1-percent AEP floods do not flood the hatchery under alternative A (no changes to the infrastructure), the 0.2-percent AEP flow still poses a flooding threat to the hatchery because flow will continue to overtop the existing retaining wall and flood the hatchery. Under the other mitigation alternatives (B, C, and D) that include some variation of structural changes to bridges, a retaining wall, and (or) channel, the peak discharges for the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities do not flood the hatchery. Water-surface profiles and flood inundation maps of the August 2011 flood and the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEPs for four mitigation alternatives were developed for Flint Brook and the Third Branch White River in the vicinity of the hatchery and can be used by the Federal, State, and local agencies to better understand the potential for future flooding at the hatchery.

Developing Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in the New York City Infrastructure-Shed: Process, Approach, Tools, and Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William D.; Blake, Reginald; Bowman, Malcolm; Faris, Craig; Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Jacob, Klaus; LeBlanc, Alice; Leichenko, Robin;

Basin-Scale Reconstruction of Flood Characteristics in a Small Urban Waterhsed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, A. J.; Smith, J. A.; Baeck, M. L.

2006-05-01

Intense short-duration summer thunderstorms are primarily responsible for the occurrence of extreme floods in small, highly urban watersheds. In these systems hydrologic response is rapid and the role of urban infrastructure (impervious cover, storm drain networks, stormwater retention facilities, engineered channels, road embankments, bridges and culverts, and floodplain fill and regrading) has potentially important consequences for runoff generation and for flood-wave propagation. The occurrence of even a single well- documented extreme event provides an opportunity to improve our understanding of the relationships between temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation, natural and anthropogenic landscape features, and the dynamics of flood behavior. We report on combined field and modeling studies of a record flood (Qpk ~ 250 m3s-1) that occurred on 7 July 2004 in the 14.3 km2 Dead Run watershed in suburban Baltimore, Maryland. Flood peaks were reconstructed for nine locations in the watershed and streamflow hydrographs were derived for four locations where complete or partial stage records were recovered; these were compared with precipitation mass-balance estimates using bias-corrected radar rainfall data in order to examine the spatial pattern of runoff ratios, lag times, and cumulative properties of the flood wave as it advanced downstream. Flood behavior in part reflects the role of capacity constraints in the storm drain network and of ponding and storage of overbank flow by physical barriers such as road embankments and culverts. The results can be used to improve predictions of flood response to other hydrometeorological events and provide insight on sensitivity of flood behavior to patterns of urban development and infrastructure.

Determining the Financial Impact of Flood Hazards in Ungaged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotterman, K. A.; Gutenson, J. L.; Pradhan, N. R.; Byrd, A.

2017-12-01

Many portions of the Earth lack adequate authoritative or in situ data that is of great value in determining natural hazard vulnerability from both anthropogenic and physical perspective. Such locations include the majority of developing nations, which do not possess adequate warning systems and protective infrastructure. The lack of warning and protection from natural hazards make these nations vulnerable to the destructive power of events such as floods. The goal of this research is to demonstrate an initial workflow with which to characterize flood financial hazards with global datasets and crowd-sourced, non-authoritative data in ungagged river basins. This workflow includes the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the watershed to precipitation, characterized by the physics-based modeling application Gridded Surface-Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. In addition, data infrastructure and resources are available to approximate the human impact of flooding. Open source, volunteer geographic information (VGI) data can provide global coverage of elements at risk of flooding. Additional valuation mechanisms can then translate flood exposure into percentage and financial damage to each building. The combinations of these tools allow the authors to remotely assess flood hazards with minimal computational, temporal, and financial overhead. This combination of deterministic and stochastic modeling provides the means to quickly characterize watershed flood vulnerability and will allow emergency responders and planners to better understand the implications of flooding, both spatially and financially. In either a planning, real-time, or forecasting scenario, the system will assist the user in understanding basin flood vulnerability and increasing community resiliency and preparedness.

Topography-based Flood Planning and Optimization Capability Development Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R.; Tasseff, Byron A.; Bent, Russell W.

2014-02-26

Globally, water-related disasters are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards. Flooding inflicts catastrophic damage on critical infrastructure and population, resulting in substantial economic and social costs. NISAC is developing LeveeSim, a suite of nonlinear and network optimization models, to predict optimal barrier placement to protect critical regions and infrastructure during flood events. LeveeSim currently includes a high-performance flood model to simulate overland flow, as well as a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement during a flood event. The LeveeSim suite models the effects of flooding in predefined regions. By manipulating a domain’s underlying topography, developers alteredmore » flood propagation to reduce detrimental effects in areas of interest. This numerical altering of a domain’s topography is analogous to building levees, placing sandbags, etc. To induce optimal changes in topography, NISAC used a novel application of an optimization algorithm to minimize flooding effects in regions of interest. To develop LeveeSim, NISAC constructed and coupled hydrodynamic and optimization algorithms. NISAC first implemented its existing flood modeling software to use massively parallel graphics processing units (GPUs), which allowed for the simulation of larger domains and longer timescales. NISAC then implemented a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement based on output from flood simulations. As proof of concept, NISAC developed five simple test scenarios, and optimized topographic solutions were compared with intuitive solutions. Finally, as an early validation example, barrier placement was optimized to protect an arbitrary region in a simulation of the historic Taum Sauk dam breach.« less

Model Predictive Control application for real time operation of controlled structures for the Water Authority Noorderzijlvest, The Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Heeringen, Klaas-Jan; Gooijer, Jan; Knot, Floris; Talsma, Jan

2015-04-01

In the Netherlands, flood protection has always been a key issue to protect settlements against storm surges and riverine floods. Whereas flood protection traditionally focused on structural measures, nowadays the availability of meteorological and hydrological forecasts enable the application of more advanced real-time control techniques for operating the existing hydraulic infrastructure in an anticipatory and more efficient way. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a powerful technique to derive optimal control variables with the help of model based predictions evaluated against a control objective. In a project for the regional water authority Noorderzijlvest in the north of the Netherlands, it has been shown that MPC can increase the safety level of the system during flood events by an anticipatory pre-release of water. Furthermore, energy costs of pumps can be reduced by making tactical use of the water storage and shifting pump activities during normal operating conditions to off-peak hours. In this way cheap energy is used in combination of gravity flow through gates during low tide periods. MPC has now been implemented for daily operational use of the whole water system of the water authority Noorderzijlvest. The system developed to a real time decision support system which not only supports the daily operation but is able to directly implement the optimal control settings at the structures. We explain how we set-up and calibrated a prediction model (RTC-Tools) that is accurate and fast enough for optimization purposes, and how we integrated it in the operational flood early warning system (Delft-FEWS). Beside the prediction model, the weights and the factors of the objective function are an important element of MPC, since they shape the control objective. We developed special features in Delft-FEWS to allow the operators to adjust the objective function in order to meet changing requirements and to evaluate different control strategies.

Urban-Climate Adaptation Tool: Optimizing Green Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellows, J. D.; Bhaduri, B. L.

2016-12-01

Cities have an opportunity to become more resilient to future climate change and green through investments made in urban infrastructure today. However, most cities lack access to credible high-resolution climate change projection and other environmental information needed to assess and address potential vulnerabilities from future climate variability. Therefore, we present an integrated framework for developing an urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT). The initial focus of Urban-CAT is to optimize the placement of green infrastructure (e.g., green roofs, porous pavements, retention basins, etc.) to be better control stormwater runoff and lower the ambient urban temperature. Urban-CAT consists of four modules. Firstly, it provides climate projections at different spatial resolutions for quantifying urban landscape. Secondly, this projected data is combined with socio-economic and other environmental data using leading and lagging indicators for assessing landscape vulnerability to climate extremes (e.g., urban flooding). Thirdly, a neighborhood scale modeling approach is presented for identifying candidate areas for adaptation strategies (e.g., green infrastructure as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding). Finally, all these capabilities are made available as a web-based tool to support decision-making and communication at the neighborhood and city levels. This presentation will highlight the methods that drive each of the modules, demo some of the capabilities using Knoxville Tennessee as a case study, and discuss the challenges of working with communities to incorporate climate change into their planning. Next steps on Urban-CAT is to additional capabilities to create a comprehensive climate adaptation tool, including energy, transportation, health, and other key urban services.

Efficient Probabilistic Forecasting for High-Resolution Models through Clustered-State Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamidi, A.; Grossberg, M.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2016-12-01

Flood response in an urban area is the product of interactions of spatially and temporally varying rainfall and infrastructures. In urban areas, however, the complex sub-surface networks of tunnels, waste and storm water drainage systems are often inaccessible, pose challenges for modeling and prediction of the drainage infrastructure performance. The increased availability of open data in cities is an emerging information asset for a better understanding of the dynamics of urban water drainage infrastructure. This includes crowd sourced data and community reporting. A well-known source of this type of data is the non-emergency hotline "311" which is available in many US cities, and may contain information pertaining to the performance of physical facilities, condition of the environment, or residents' experience, comfort and well-being. In this study, seven years of New York City 311 (NYC311) call during 2010-2016 is employed, as an alternative approach for identifying the areas of the city most prone to sewer back up flooding. These zones are compared with the hydrologic analysis of runoff flooding zones to provide a predictive model for the City. The proposed methodology is an example of urban system phenomenology using crowd sourced, open data. A novel algorithm for calculating the spatial distribution of flooding complaints across NYC's five boroughs is presented in this study. In this approach, the features that represent reporting bias are separated from those that relate to actual infrastructure system performance. The sewer backup results are assessed with the spatial distribution of runoff in NYC during 2010-2016. With advances in radar technologies, a high spatial-temporal resolution data set for precipitation is available for most of the United States that can be implemented in hydrologic analysis of dense urban environments. High resolution gridded Stage IV radar rainfall data along with the high resolution spatially distributed land cover data are employed to investigate the urban pluvial flooding. The monthly results of excess runoff are compared with the sewer backup in NYC to build a predictive model of flood zones according to the 311 phone calls.

Evaluation of green infrastructure designs using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In arid and semi-arid regions, green infrastructure (GI) designs can address several issues facing urban environments, including augmenting water supply, mitigating flooding, decreasing pollutant loads, and promoting greenness in the built environment. An optimum design captures stormwater, addressi...

Using Low Impact Development and Green Infrastructure to Get Benefits From FEMA Programs

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

LID and Green Infrastructure is a cost-effective, resilient approach to stormwater management. Projects that reduce flood losses may be eligible for grant funding through FEMA and may allow communities to claim points through FEMA's rating system -CRS

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, Colin; Fayne, Jessica

2016-01-01

Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data, researchers can develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts resulting from flood disaster events.

Assessing the Utility of a Satellite-Based Flood Inundation and Socio-Economic Impact Tool for the Lower Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahamed, A.; Bolten, J. D.

2016-12-01

Flood disaster events in Southeast Asia result in significant loss of life and economic damage. Remote sensing information systems designed to monitor floods and assess their severity can help governments and international agencies formulate an effective response before and during flood events, and ultimately alleviate impacts to population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Recent examples of destructive flood events in the Lower Mekong River Basin occurred in 2000, 2011, and 2013. Floods can be particularly costly in the developing countries of Southeast Asia where large portions of the population live on or near the floodplain (Jonkman, 2005; Kirsch et al., 2012; Long and Trong, 2001; Stromberg. 2007). Regional studies (Knox, 1993; Mirza, 2002; Schiermeier, 2011; Västilä et al, 2010) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) projections suggest that precipitation extremes and flood frequency are increasing. Thus, improved systems to rapidly monitor flooding in vulnerable areas are needed. This study determines surface water extent for current and historic flood events by using stacks of historic multispectral Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-meter imagery and the spectral Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signatures of permanent water bodies (MOD44W). Supporting software tools automatically assess flood impacts to population and infrastructure to provide a rapid first set of impact numbers generated hours after the onset of an event. The near real-time component uses twice daily imagery acquired at 3-hour latency, and performs image compositing routines to minimize cloud cover. Case studies for historic flood events are presented. Results suggest that near real-time remote sensing-based observation and impact assessment systems can serve as effective regional decision support tools for governments, international agencies, and disaster responders.

A framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure in mitigating urban flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, Jochen E.; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, Tim D.; Sanders, Brett F.

2017-10-01

This research outlines a framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure (GI) performance in mitigating flood hazard in small urban catchments. The urban hydrologic modeling tool (MUSIC) is coupled with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with GI, rainwater tanks and infiltration trenches in particular, can propagate flood management benefits downstream and support intuitive flood hazard maps useful for communicating and planning with communities. The hydrologic and hydraulic models are calibrated based on current catchment conditions, then modified to represent alternative GI scenarios including a complete lack of GI versus a full implementation of GI. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 1-63% and durations from 10 min to 24 h. Flood hazard benefits mapped by the framework include maximum flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Application of the system to the Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment shows that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 h, presently implemented GI reduces downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of GI would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of GI could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing the drowning hazard posed by urban streams and improving the potential for access by emergency responders. For storm durations longer than 3 h, a full implementation of GI lacks the capacity to retain the resulting rainfall depths and only reduces flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%.

Evaluating the atmospheric drivers leading to the December 2014 flood in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schade, Nils H.

2017-06-01

Regional analyses of atmospheric conditions that may cause flooding of important transport infrastructure (railway tracks, highways/roads, rivers/channels) and subsequent adaptation measures are part of topic 1 of the network of experts initiated by the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI). As an example case study, the December 2014 flood in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, was investigated. Atmospheric conditions at the onset of the flood event are described and evaluated with respect to the general weather circulation, initial wetness, and event precipitation. Persistent, predominantly westerly general weather circulations (GWCs) directed several low-pressure systems over the North Sea to Schleswig-Holstein during December 2014, accompanied by prolonged rainfall and finally a strong precipitation event in southern Schleswig-Holstein, causing several inland gauges to exceed their, by then maximum, water levels. Results show that the antecedent precipitation index (API) is able to reflect the soil moisture conditions and, in combination with the maximum 3-day precipitation sum (R3d), to capture the two main drivers finally leading to the flood: (1) the initial wetness of north-western Schleswig-Holstein and (2) strong event precipitation in southern and eastern Schleswig-Holstein from 21 to 23 December; at the same time, both indices exceeded their respective 5-year return periods. Further, trend analyses show that both API and R3d have been increasing during recent years, while regional patterns match the north-eastward shift of cyclone pathways, leading to a higher risk of flooding in Schleswig-Holstein. Within the network of experts, investigations of these and further indices/drivers for earth system changes (e.g. wind surge and sea level rise) derived from observations, reanalyses, and regional climate model data are planned for all German coastal areas. Results can be expected to lead to improved adaptation measures to floods under climate change conditions wherever catchments have to be drained and infrastructures and ecosystems may be harmed.

Adapting Reservoir Operations to Reduce the Multi-Sectoral Impacts of Flood Intensification in the Lower Susquehanna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zatarain-Salazar, J.; Reed, P. M.; Quinn, J.

2017-12-01

This study characterizes how changes in reservoir operations can be used to better balance growing flood intensities and the conflicting multi-sectorial demands in the Lower Susequehanna River Basin (LSRB), USA. Tensions in the LSRB are increasing with urban population pressures, evolving energy demands, and growing flood-based infrastructure vulnerabilities. This study explores how re-operation of the Conowingo Reservoir, located in the LSRB, can improve the balance between competing demands for hydropower production, urban water supply to Chester, PA and Baltimore, MD, cooling water supply for the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Plant, recreation, federal environmental flow requirements and improved mitigation of growing flood hazards. The LSRB is also one of the most flood prone basins in the US, impacted by hurricanes and rain-on-snow induced flood events causing on average $100 million in economic losses and infrastructure damages to downstream settlements every year. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the consequences of mathematical formulation choices, uncertainty characterization and the value of information when defining the Conowingo reservoir's multi-purpose operations. This work seeks to strike a balance between the complexity and the efficacy of rival framings for the problem formulations used to discover effective operating policies. More broadly, the problem of intensifying urban floods in reservoir systems with complex multi-sectoral demands is broadly relevant to developed river basins globally.

Decreasing flood risk perception in Porto Alegre - Brazil and its influence on water resource management decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allasia, D. G.; Tassi, R.; Bemfica, D.; Goldenfum, J. A.

2015-06-01

Porto Alegre is the capital and largest city in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul in Southern Brazil with approximately 1.5 million inhabitants. The city lies on the eastern bank of the Guaiba Lake, formed by the convergence of five rivers and leading to the Lagoa dos Patos, a giant freshwater lagoon navigable by even the largest of ships. This river junction has become an important alluvial port as well as a chief industrial and commercial centre. However, this strategic location resulted in severe damage because of its exposure to flooding from the river system, affecting the city in the years 1873, 1928, 1936, 1941 and 1967. In order to reduce flood risk, a complex system of levees and pump stations was implemented during 1960s and 1970s. Since its construction, not a single large flood event occurred. However, in recent years, the levees in the downtown region of Porto Alegre were severally criticized by city planners and population. Several projects have been proposed to demolish the Mauá Wall due to the false perception of lack of flood risk. Similar opinions and reactions against flood infrastructure have been observed in other cities in Brazil, such as Itajaí and Blumenau, with disastrous consequences. This paper illustrates how the perception of flood risk in Porto Alegre has changed over recent years as a result of flood infrastructure, and how such changes in perceptions can influence water management decisions.

Flooding Risk for Coastal Infrastructure: a Stakeholder-Oriented Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plater, A. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Knight, P. J.; Morrissey, K.

2015-12-01

A flood risk assessment for coastal energy infrastructure in the UK with respect to long-term sea-level rise and extreme water levels has been conducted using a combination of numerical modelling approaches (LISFLOOD-FP, SWAB, XBeach-G, POLCOMS). Model outputs have been incorporated into a decision-support tool that enables users from a wide spectrum of coastal stakeholders (e.g. nuclear energy, utility providers, local government, environmental regulators, communities) to explore the potential impacts of flooding on both operational (events to 10 years) and strategic (10 to 50 years) timescales. Examples illustrate the physical and economic impacts of flooding from combined extreme water levels, wave overtopping and high river flow for Fleetwood, NW England; changes in the extent of likely flooding arising from an extreme event due to sea-level rise for Oldbury, SW England; and the relative vulnerability to overtopping and breaching of sea defences for Dungeness, SE England. The impacts of a potential large-scale beach recharge scheme to mitigate coastal erosion and flood risk along the southern shoreline of Dungeness are also examined using a combination of coastal evolution and particle-tracking modelling. The research goal is to provide an evidence base for resource allocation, investment in interventions, and communication and dialogue in relation to sea-level rise to 2500 AD.

78 FR 54801 - Gulf Coast Restoration Trust Fund

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-06

..., including port infrastructure. (g) Coastal flood protection and related infrastructure. (h) Promotion of... protection of natural resources, mitigation of damage to fish and wildlife, and workforce development and job..., marine and wildlife habitats, beaches, coastal wetlands, and economy of the Gulf Coast. The Council will...

Climate Change Impacts on Runoff Generation for the Design of Sustainable Stormwater Infrastructure

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-01

Climate change over the Pacific Northwest is expected to alter the hydrological cycle, such as an increase in winter flooding potential due to more precipitation falling as snow and more frequent rain on snow events. Existing infrastructure for storm...

2005 Tri-Service Infrastructure Systems Conference and Exhibition

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-08-04

Reclamation Irrigation/Flood Control Reservoirs • Bonny • Swanson • Enders • Harry Strunk • Hugh Butler • Keith Sebelius • Lovewell US Army Corps of...Water Quality – Mentor, Topeka, DeSoto • Irrigation – Waconda, Harlan County, Lovewell • Navigation Support – Milford, Tuttle Creek, Perry • Endangered...1977 LOVL ( Lovewell Reservoir): January 1, 1980 MILD (Milford Lake) August 24, 1964 Kansas City District US Army Corps of Engineers PRECIPATATION GAGES

iSPUW: integrated sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Nazari, B.; Habibi, H.; Norouzi, A.; Nabatian, M.; Seo, D. J.; Bartos, M. D.; Kerkez, B.; Lakshman, L.; Zink, M.; Lee, J.

2016-12-01

Many cities face tremendous water-related challenges in this Century of the City. Urban areas are particularly susceptible not only to excesses and shortages of water but also to impaired water quality. To addresses these challenges, we synergistically integrate advances in computing and cyber-infrastructure, environmental modeling, geoscience, and information science to develop integrative solutions for urban water challenges. In this presentation, we describe the various efforts that are currently ongoing in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area for iSPUW: real-time high-resolution flash flood forecasting, inundation mapping for large urban areas, crowdsourcing of water observations in urban areas, real-time assimilation of crowdsourced observations for street and river flooding, integrated control of lawn irrigation and rainwater harvesting for water conservation and stormwater management, feature mining with causal discovery for flood prediction, and development of the Arlington Urban Hydroinformatics Testbed. Analyzed is the initial data of sensor network for water level and lawn monitoring, and cellphone applications for crowdsourcing flood reports. New data assimilation approaches to deal with categorical and continuous observations are also evaluated via synthetic experiments.

Tropical stormwater floods: a sustainable solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molinie, Jack; Bade, Francois; Nagau, Jimmy; Nuiro, Paul

2017-04-01

Stormwater management is one of the most difficult problem of urban and suburban area. The urban runoff volume related to rain intensity and surfaces properties can lead to flood. Thereby, urban flooding creates considerable infrastructure problem, economics and human damages. In tropical countries, burgeoning human population coupled with unplanned urbanization altered the natural drainage. Consequently, classical intense rain around 100 cm/h produces frequent street flooding. In our case, we study the management of intense tropical rain, by using a network of individual rain storage tanks. The study area is economical and industrial zone installed in a coastal plain , with seventy per cent of impermeable surface (roads, parking lots, building roof, …) and thirty per cent of wetland (mangrove, …). Our solution is to delay the routes and parking lots runoff to the roof one. We propose sustainable individual water storage and a real time dynamical management, which permit to control the roof water arrival in the stormwater culvert. During the remaining time, the stored rainwater can be used for domestic activities instead of the use of drinking water.

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Hydrologic Design in Snow-Dominated Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark

Precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves are a standard tool used to derive design floods for hydraulic infrastructure worldwide. In snow-dominated regions where a large percentage of flood events are caused by snowmelt and rain-on-snow events, the PREC-IDF design approach can lead to substantial underestimation/overestimation of design floods and associated infrastructure. In this study, next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface, are introduced into the design process to improve hydrologic design. The authors compared peak design flood estimates from the National Resource Conservation Service TR-55 hydrologic model driven by NG-IDF and PREC-IDF curves at 399 Snowpackmore » Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western United States, all of which had at least 30 years of high-quality records. They found that about 72% of the stations in the western United States showed the potential for underdesign, for which the PREC-IDF curves underestimated peak design floods by as much as 324%. These results demonstrated the need to update the use of PREC-IDF curves to the use of NG-IDF curves for hydrologic design in snow-dominated regions.« less

Next-Generation Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves for Hydrologic Design in Snow-Dominated Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark S.

Precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves are a standard tool used to derive design floods for hydraulic infrastructure worldwide. In snow-dominated regions where a large percentage of flood events are caused by snowmelt and rain-on-snow events, the PREC-IDF design approach can lead to substantial underestimation/overestimation of design floods and associated infrastructure. In this study, next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface, are introduced into the design process to improve hydrologic design. The authors compared peak design flood estimates from the National Resource Conservation Service TR-55 hydrologic model driven by NG-IDF and PREC-IDF curves at 399 Snowpackmore » Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western United States, all of which had at least 30 years of high-quality records. They found that about 72% of the stations in the western United States showed the potential for underdesign, for which the PREC-IDF curves underestimated peak design floods by as much as 324%. These results demonstrated the need to update the use of PREC-IDF curves to the use of NG-IDF curves for hydrologic design in snow-dominated regions.« less

Flooding and intestinal illness due to Clostridium difficile infection: a case-crossover analysis of Massachusetts data, 2003-2007

EPA Science Inventory

Background. Climate change has contributed to a rise in extreme weather events, including heavier rainfalls. Floods can cause water bodies to overflow, damage water treatment and drinking water infrastructure, overwhelm sewage treatment facilities, and result in discharges of un...

On the Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise Projections for Infrastructure Risk Analysis and Adaptation

EPA Science Inventory

Storm surge can cause coastal hydrology changes, flooding, water quality changes, and even inundation of low-lying terrain. Strong wave actions and disruptive winds can damage water infrastructure and other environmental assets (hazardous and solid waste management facilities, w...

Building green infrastructure via citizen participation - a six-year study in the Shepherd Creek

EPA Science Inventory

Green infrastructure at the parcel scale provides critical ecosystem goods and services when these services (such as flood mitigation) must be provided locally. Here we report on an approach that encourages suburban landowners to mitigate impervious surfaces on their properties t...

Evolving flood patterns in a Mediterranean region (1301-2012) and climatic factors - the case of Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrera-Escoda, A.; Llasat, M. C.

2015-01-01

Data on flood occurrence and flood impacts for the last seven centuries in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula have been analysed in order to characterise long-term trends, anomalous periods and their relationship with different climatic factors such as precipitation, general circulation and solar activity. Catastrophic floods (those that produce complete or partial destruction of infrastructure close to the river, and major damages in the overflowed area, including some zones away from the channels) do not present a statistically significant trend, whereas extraordinary floods (the channel is overflowed and some punctual severe damages can be produced in the infrastructures placed in the rivercourse or near it, but usually damages are slight) have seen a significant rise, especially from 1850 on, and were responsible for the total increase in flooding in the region. This rise can be mainly attributed to small coastal catchments, which have experienced a marked increase in developed land and population, resulting in changes in land use and greater vulnerability. Changes in precipitation alone cannot explain the variation in flood patterns, although a certain increase was shown in late summer-early autumn, when extraordinary floods are most frequently recorded. The relationship between the North Atlantic circulation and floods is not as strong, due to the important role of mesoscale factors in heavy precipitation in the northwest of the Mediterranean region. However, it can explain the variance to some extent, mainly in relation to the catastrophic floods experienced during the autumn. Solar activity has some impact on changes in catastrophic floods, with cycles related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Gleissberg solar cycle. In addition, anomalous periods of high flood frequency in autumn generally occurred during periods of increased solar activity. The physical influence of the latter in general circulation patterns, the high troposphere and the stratosphere, has been analysed in order to ascertain its role in causing floods.

Blue-Green Solutions in Urban Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlsson, Caroline; Kalantari, Zahra

2017-04-01

With the ongoing urbanisation and increasing pressure for new housing and infrastructure, the nexus of developing compact, energy-efficient and yet liveable and sustainable cities is urgent to address. In this context, blue-green spaces and related ecosystem services (ES) are critical resources that need to be integrated in policy and planning of urban. Among the ES provided by blue-green spaces, regulating ES such as water retention and purification are particularly important in urban areas, affecting water supply and quality, related cultural ES and biodiversity, as well as cities potential to adapt to climate change. Blue-green infrastructure management is considered a sustainable way to reducing negative effects of urbanisation, such as decreasing flood risks, as well as adapting to climate change for example by controlling increasing flood and drought risks. Blue-green infrastructure management can for example create multifunctional surfaces with valuable environmental and social functions and generally handle greenways and ecological networks as important ecosystem service components, for example for stormwater regulation in a sustainable urban drainage system. The Norrström drainage basin (22,000 km2) is a large demonstrator for Blue-green infrastructure management. Both urbanisation and agriculture are extensive within this basin, which includes the Swedish capital Stockholm and is part of the fertile Swedish belt. Together, the relatively high population density combined with agricultural and industrial activities in this region imply large eutrophication and pollution pressures, not least transferred through storm runoff to both inland surface waters and the coastal waters of the Baltic Sea. The ecosystems of this basin provide highly valued but also threatened services. For example, Lake Mälaren is the single main freshwater supply for the Swedish capital Stockholm, as well as a key nutrient retention system that strongly mitigates waterborne nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea a function that is in turn threatened by climate change. Large socio-economic values are also at stake here with regard to ecosystem regulation of both flood and drought risks, again threatened by both climate change and human development activities within the Norrström basin itself.

Climate Change and Flooding in an Ecologically Fragile Zone of Nigerian Coastal Areas: A Case Study of Ilaje Settlement in Lagos, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, A. F.

2017-12-01

Climate change exacerbates the environmental condition directly or indirectly. The frequency of climate-related disasters worldwide has been on the increase with their amplitude growing. The consequences of climate-related disaster are not limited to loss of lives and properties alone, but also serious repercussions on post-disaster reconstruction, as well as the cost implications for resilience of the infrastructure and natural environment. In developing countries, the low-income group whose income is below the world poverty line is the most vulnerable to the dangers of climate change. To worsen the case, the political and economic strength of these countries in terms of economic resources, technological development and urban planning management necessary for adapting to climate change are relatively weak. This study takes an inventory of the study area environment to establish its environmental state in terms of the extent of its vulnerability and economic strength. It was found that the study area is vulnerable being a coastal area and could be described as a slum settlement. Also, information on frequency and extent of flooding in association with change in temperature was collected. The results show that the frequency of flood occurrence within the period has increased and the increase was attributed to rise in sea level alongside a significant increase in temperature within the period of study. The implications of the findings on loss of lives/properties and continuous decline in the area economic strength as it relates to resilience of the area was discussed. The study suggests an effective urban land use management and control, as well as redevelopment of resilient infrastructure in the area. The study concludes that the increase in temperature for the period as an indicator of climate change causes rise in sea level and the subsequent increase in flooding occurrence. Key Words: Ecologically Fragile Zone, Climate Change, Flooding and Vulnerability.

Protection of Urban Water body Infrastructure - Policy Requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelakantan, T. R.; Ramakrishnan, K.

2017-07-01

Water body is an important infrastructure of urban landscape. Water bodies like tanks and ponds are constructed to harvest rainwater for local use. Such water bodies serve many environmental functions including flood and soil erosion control and are useful for irrigation, drinking water supply and groundwater recharge. A large number of water bodies recently have been lost due to anthropogenic activities and the remaining water bodies are under stress due to risk of degradation. There are many phases to solve or control the problem; starting from stopping the abuse, to restoration to monitoring and maintenance. In this situation, the existing urban and peri-urban water bodies are to be preserved and rehabilitated. In this study, policy requirements for the protection (preservation and rehabilitation) of water bodies are analyzed with special reference to Thanjavur city. Thanjavur city has many water bodies and moat around the Big-Temple and the palace, and stands as an evidence for water management in ancient days. These water bodies are to be protected and used properly for sustainable growth of the city. This paper envisages the following three: (a) need for evaluation of hydraulic and hydrologic properties of the water bodies for conserving rainwater and controlling flood water in the existing urban water bodies; (b) need for evaluation of potential of socio-environmental services by the water bodies, and (c) need for developing a relative importance index for protection of water bodies to prioritize the remedial actions.

Assessing Hurricane Katrina Vegetation Damage at Stennis Space Center using IKONOS Image Classification Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Ross, Kenton W.; Graham, William D.

2007-01-01

Hurricane Katrina hit southwestern Mississippi on August 29, 2005, at 9:45 a.m. CDT as a category 3 storm with surges up to approx. 9 m and sustained winds of approx. 120 mph. The hurricane's wind, rain, and flooding devastated several coastal towns, from New Orleans through Mobile. The storm also caused significant damage to infrastructure and vegetation of NASA's SSC (Stennis Space Center). Storm recovery at SSC involved not only repairs of critical infrastructure but also forest damage mitigation (via timber harvests and control burns to reduce fire risk). This presentation discusses an effort to use commercially available high spatial resolution multispectral IKONOS data for vegetation damage assessment, based on data collected over SSC on September 2, 2005.

Going green? Ex-post valuation of a multipurpose water infrastructure in Northern Italy.

PubMed

Reynaud, Arnaud; Lanzanova, Denis; Liquete, Camino; Grizzetti, Bruna

2017-10-01

A contingent valuation approach is used to estimate how households value different multipurpose infrastructures (conventional or green) for managing flood risk and water pollution. As a case study we consider the Gorla Maggiore water park located in the Lombardy Region, in Northern Italy. The park is a neo-ecosystem including an infrastructure to treat waste water and store excess rain water, built in 2011 on the shore of the Olona River in an area previously used for poplar plantation. This park is the first one of this type built in Italy. A novel aspect of our research is that it not only considers the values people hold for different water ecosystem services (pollution removal, recreative use, wildlife support, flood risk reduction), but also their preferences for how those outcomes are achieved (through conventional or green infrastructures). The results indicate that the type of infrastructure delivering the ecosystem services does have an impact on individuals' preferences for freshwater ecosystem services. Households are willing to pay from 6.3 to 7.1 euros per year for a green infrastructure (compared to a conventional one), with a premium up to 16.5 euros for a surrounding made of a park. By considering the type of infrastructure within the choice model, we gain a richer understanding of the relationship between social welfare and freshwater ecosystem services.

Hierarchical Coloured Petrinet Based Healthcare Infrastructure Interdependency Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nivedita, N.; Durbha, S.

2014-11-01

To ensure a resilient Healthcare Critical Infrastructure, understanding the vulnerabilities and analysing the interdependency on other critical infrastructures is important. To model this critical infrastructure and its dependencies, Hierarchal Coloured petri net modelling approach for simulating the vulnerability of Healthcare Critical infrastructure in a disaster situation is studied.. The model enables to analyse and understand various state changes, which occur when there is a disruption or damage to any of the Critical Infrastructure, and its cascading nature. It also enables to explore optimal paths for evacuation during the disaster. The simulation environment can be used to understand and highlight various vulnerabilities of Healthcare Critical Infrastructure during a flood disaster scenario; minimize consequences; and enable timely, efficient response.

Urban development under extreme hydrologic and weather conditions for El Paso-Juarez: Recommendations resulting from hydrologic modeling, GIS, and remote sensing analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barud-Zubillaga, Alberto

During the 2006 El Paso-Juarez flood there were many concerns regarding the capability of the existing stormwater system to handle 50- and 100-year flood events in El Paso, Texas and Juarez, Mexico area. Moreover in 2008, a considerable wet year from the normal 223 mm of annual precipitation for El Paso demonstrated that the area could very well received large amounts of precipitation at localized areas in short periods of time, representing a great flood threat to residents living in areas prone to flood. Some climate change projections for the area are exactly what had occurred over the last two decades; an increased number of torrential rainstorms over smaller concentrated pieces of land separated by longer years of drought between rainstorms. This study consisted in three projects focused on three critical regions within the El Paso-Juarez area that were greatly affected by the 2006 Flood. The goal was to identify if natural arroyos or the existent built stormwater system, could properly managed the projected precipitation patterns. The three projects described in this dissertation touch on the following points: (a) the importance of a reliable precipitation model that could accurately describes precipitation patterns in the region under extreme drought and wet climates conditions; (b) differences in land use/land cover characteristics as factors promoting or disrupting the possibility for flooding, and (c) limitations and capabilities of existent stormwater systems and natural arroyos as means to control flooding. Conclusions and recommendations are shown below, which apply not only to each particular project, but also to all study areas and similar areas in the El Paso-Juarez region. Urbanization can improve or worsen a pre-existing natural stormwater system if built under its required capacity. Such capacity should be calculated considering extreme weather conditions, based on a denser network of precipitation stations to capture the various microclimates found in the region and taking into account climate change predictions. Development of new areas needs to consider not only the watershed of study but its relation to other watersheds around them. Basin parameters seemed to be of low impact while comparing them with precipitation rates. High resolution DEMs, such as those derived from LiDAR can dramatically improve the accuracy and reliability of a hydrological model. Hardware capabilities and limitations however should be considered. The overall recommendations derived from this dissertation are to direct new studies, policies and regulations at the three levels of government---local, state and federal---to: limit urban development to areas of no or low potential for flooding; implementing some type of ecological, green corridors, or conservation easements to preserve these areas; build semi-natural or hybrid stormwater infrastructure to slowdown, collect, and ultimately, transport runoff to the Rio Grande or any other waterway; consider extreme wet and dry scenarios for designation of flood-prone areas and future construction of stormwater infrastructure; and design stormwater infrastructure to retrofit the existing natural and irrigation drains.

Flood mapping with multitemporal MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Nguyen-Thanh; Chen, Chi-Farn; Chen, Cheng-Ru

2014-05-01

Flood is one of the most devastating and frequent disasters resulting in loss of human life and serve damage to infrastructure and agricultural production. Flood is phenomenal in the Mekong River Delta (MRD), Vietnam. It annually lasts from July to November. Information on spatiotemporal flood dynamics is thus important for planners to devise successful strategies for flood monitoring and mitigation of its negative effects. The main objective of this study is to develop an approach for weekly mapping flood dynamics with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data in MRD using the water fraction model (WFM). The data processed for 2009 comprises three main steps: (1) data pre-processing to construct smooth time series of the difference in the values (DVLE) between land surface water index (LSWI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) using the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), (2) flood derivation using WFM, and (3) accuracy assessment. The mapping results were compared with the ground reference data, which were constructed from Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) data. As several error sources, including mixed-pixel problems and low-resolution bias between the mapping results and ground reference data, could lower the level of classification accuracy, the comparisons indicated satisfactory results with the overall accuracy of 80.5% and Kappa coefficient of 0.61, respectively. These results were reaffirmed by a close correlation between the MODIS-derived flood area and that of the ground reference map at the provincial level, with the correlation coefficients (R2) of 0.93. Considering the importance of remote sensing for monitoring floods and mitigating the damage caused by floods to crops and infrastructure, this study eventually leads to the realization of the value of using time-series MODIS DVLE data for weekly flood monitoring in MRD with the aid of EMD and WFM. Such an approach that could provide quantitative information on spatiotemporal flood dynamics for monitoring purposes was completely transferable to other regions in the world.

Development of an intelligent hydroinformatic system for real-time monitoring and assessment of civil infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Paul; Michalis, Panagiotis; Solman, Hrvoje; Kerin, Igor; Bekic, Damir; Pakrashi, Vikram; McKeogh, Eamon

2017-04-01

With the effects of climate change becoming more apparent, extreme weather events are now occurring with greater frequency throughout the world. Such extreme events have resulted in increased high intensity flood events which are having devastating consequences on hydro-structures, especially on bridge infrastructure. The remote and often inaccessible nature of such bridges makes inspections problematic, a major concern if safety assessments are required during and after extreme flood events. A solution to this is the introduction of smart, low cost sensing solutions at locations susceptible to hydro-hazards. Such solutions can provide real-time information on the health of the bridge and its environments, with such information aiding in the mitigation of the risks associated with extreme weather events. This study presents the development of an intelligent system for remote, real-time monitoring of hydro-hazards to bridge infrastructure. The solution consists of two types of remote monitoring stations which have the capacity to monitor environmental conditions and provide real-time information to a centralized, big data database solution, from which an intelligent decision support system will accommodate the results to control and manage bridge, river and catchment assets. The first device developed as part of the system is the Weather Information Logging Device (WILD), which monitors rainfall, temperature and air and soil moisture content. The ability of the WILD to monitor rainfall in real time enables flood early warning alerts and predictive river flow conditions, thereby enabling decision makers the ability to make timely and effective decisions about critical infrastructures in advance of extreme flood events. The WILD is complemented by a second monitoring device, the Bridge Information Recording Device (BIRD), which monitors water levels at a given location in real-time. The monitoring of water levels of a river allows for, among other applications, hydraulic modelling to assess the likely impact that severe flood events will have on a bridges foundation, particularly due to scour. The process of reading and validating data from the WILD and BIRD buffer servers is outlined, as is the transmission protocol used for the sending of recorded data to a centralized repository for further use and analysis. Finally, the development of a centralized repository for the collection of data from the WILD and BIRD devices is presented. Eventually the big data solution would be used to receive, store and send the monitored data to the hydrological models, whether existing or developed, and the results would be transmitted to the intelligent decision support system based on a web-based platform, for managing, planning and executing data, processes and procedures for bridge assets. The development of intelligent hydroinformatic system is an important tool for the protection of key infrastructure assets from the increasingly common effects of climate change. Acknowledgement The authors wish to acknowledge the financial support of the European Commission, through the Marie Curie Industry-Academia Partnership and Pathways Network BRIDGE SMS (Intelligent Bridge Assessment Maintenance and Management System) - FP7-People-2013-IAPP- 612517.

The economic value of the flow regulation environmental service in a Brazilian urban watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Guilherme F.; de Souza, Verônica B. F. S.; Moraes, Natália V.

2017-11-01

Urban flood management have often focused either on the capacity expansion of drainage systems or on artificial detention storage. While flood control should take part early on urban planning, not enough is known to guide such plans and provide incentive to land use decisions that minimize the vulnerability to localized floods. In this paper, we offer a broader perspective on flood protection, by treating the original hydrologic flow regulation as an environmental service, and exploring how the value of this environmental service drives economic land use decisions that convert original (permeable) land into urbanized (impermeable). We investigate the relationship between land use decisions and their hydrologic consequences explicitly, and use this relationship to simulate resulting land use scenarios depending on the value attached to the environmental service of flow regulation. Rainfall-runoff simulation model results are combined to an optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming approach to model economic land use decisions. The objective function maximizes the total expected land use benefit in an urban area, considering the opportunity cost of permeable areas in the first stage and the resulting loss of the environmental service of flow regulation on the second stage, under several probable hydrological events. A watershed in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, is used to demonstrate the approach. Different values attached to the environmental service were tested, from zero to higher than the opportunity cost of land, and artificial detention infrastructure was included to calculate the resulting land use change and the loss in the environmental service value. Results indicate that by valuing the environmental service loss and discounting it from the economic benefits of land use, alternative solutions to land use are found, with decreased peak flows and lower flood frequency. Combined solutions including structural and non-structural techniques provide more cost effective results, avoiding both the depletion of the environmental service and the high opportunity cost associated to valuable commercial urban areas. Urban development under such premises will be more resilient and adapted to local flooding, instead of relying on increasingly expensive infrastructure.

Flood probability quantification for road infrastructure: Data-driven spatial-statistical approach and case study applications.

PubMed

Kalantari, Zahra; Cavalli, Marco; Cantone, Carolina; Crema, Stefano; Destouni, Georgia

2017-03-01

Climate-driven increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events is expected to impose greater strain on the built environment and major transport infrastructure, such as roads and railways. This study develops a data-driven spatial-statistical approach to quantifying and mapping the probability of flooding at critical road-stream intersection locations, where water flow and sediment transport may accumulate and cause serious road damage. The approach is based on novel integration of key watershed and road characteristics, including also measures of sediment connectivity. The approach is concretely applied to and quantified for two specific study case examples in southwest Sweden, with documented road flooding effects of recorded extreme rainfall. The novel contributions of this study in combining a sediment connectivity account with that of soil type, land use, spatial precipitation-runoff variability and road drainage in catchments, and in extending the connectivity measure use for different types of catchments, improve the accuracy of model results for road flood probability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flooding and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in Massachusetts: a case-crossover study.

PubMed

Wade, Timothy J; Lin, Cynthia J; Jagai, Jyotsna S; Hilborn, Elizabeth D

2014-01-01

Floods and other severe weather events are anticipated to increase as a result of global climate change. Floods can lead to outbreaks of gastroenteritis and other infectious diseases due to disruption of sewage and water infrastructure and impacts on sanitation and hygiene. Floods have also been indirectly associated with outbreaks through population displacement and crowding. We conducted a case-crossover study to investigate the association between flooding and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness (ER-GI) in Massachusetts for the years 2003 through 2007. We obtained ER-GI visits from the State of Massachusetts and records of floods from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Storm Events Database. ER-GI visits were considered exposed if a flood occurred in the town of residence within three hazard periods of the visit: 0-4 days; 5-9 days; and 10-14 days. A time-stratified bi-directional design was used for control selection, matching on day of the week with two weeks lead or lag time from the ER-GI visit. Fixed effect logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk of ER-GI visits following the flood. A total of 270,457 ER-GI visits and 129 floods occurred in Massachusetts over the study period. Across all counties, flooding was associated with an increased risk for ER-GI in the 0-4 day period after flooding (Odds Ratio: 1.08; 95% Confidence Interval: 1.03-1.12); but not the 5-9 days (Odds Ratio: 0.995; 95% Confidence Interval: 0.955-1.04) or the 10-14 days after (Odds Ratio: 0.966, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.927-1.01). Similar results were observed for different definitions of ER-GI. The effect differed across counties, suggesting local differences in the risk and impact of flooding. Statewide, across the study period, an estimated 7% of ER-GI visits in the 0-4 days after a flood event were attributable to flooding.

Potential GLOF Hazards and Initiatives taken to minimize its Impacts on Downstream Communities and Infrastructures in Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regmi, D.; Kargel, J. S.; Leonard, G. J.; Haritashya, U. K.; Karki, A.; Poudyal, S.

2017-12-01

With long-term temperature increases due to climate change, glacier lakes in several parts of the world are a fast-developing threat to infrastructure and downstream communities. There are more than 2000 glacier lakes in Nepal; while most pose no significant hazard to people, a comparative few are very dangerous, such as Tso Rolpa, Imja, Barun and Thulagi glacier lakes. The objectives of this study are to present 1) a review of prior glacier lake studies that have been carried out in the Nepal Himalaya; 2) recent research results, including bathymetric studies of the lakes; 3) a summary of possible infrastructure damages, especially multi-million-dollar hydropower projects, that are under threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs); 4) to present the outcome of the recently completed Imja lake lowering project, which is the highest altitude lake ever controlled by lowering the water level. This project is being undertaken as a response to a scientific ground-based bathymetric and geophysical survey funded by the United Nations Development Program and a satellite-based study of the long-term development of the lake (funded by NASA's SERVIR program, J. Kargel, PI). The objective of the Imja Lake GLOF mitigation project is to lower the water level by three meters to reduce the lake volume, increase the freeboard, and improve the safety of tourism, downstream communities, and the infrastructure of Nepal's Everest region. This GLOF mitigation step taken by Nepal's government to reduce the risk of an outburst flood is a good step to reduce the chances of a GLOF, and to reduce the magnitude of a disaster if a GLOF nonetheless occurs despite our best efforts. We will also present the prospects for the future of Imja Lake, including an outline of possible steps that could further reduce the hazards faced by downstream communities and infrastructure. Key words: Glacier Lakes; GLOF; Hydropower; Imja lake; lake lowering

Wireless Sensor Network Quality of Service Improvement on Flooding Attack Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartono, R.; Widyawan; Wibowo, S. B.; Purnomo, A.; Hartatik

2018-03-01

There are two methods of building communication using wireless media. The first method is building a base infrastructure as an intermediary between users. Problems that arise on this type of network infrastructure is limited space to build any network physical infrastructure and also the cost factor. The second method is to build an ad hoc network between users who will communicate. On ad hoc network, each user must be willing to send data from source to destination for the occurrence of a communication. One of network protocol in Ad Hoc, Ad hoc on demand Distance Vector (AODV), has the smallest overhead value, easier to adapt to dynamic network and has small control message. One AODV protocol’s drawback is route finding process’ security for sending the data. In this research, AODV protocol is optimized by determining Expanding Ring Search (ERS) best value. Random topology is used with variation in the number of nodes: 25, 50, 75, 100, 125 and 150 with node’s speed of 10m/s in the area of 1000m x 1000m on flooding network condition. Parameters measured are Throughput, Packet Delivery Ratio, Average Delay and Normalized Routing Load. From the test results of AODV protocol optimization with best value of Expanding Ring Search (ERS), throughput increased by 5.67%, packet delivery ratio increased by 5.73%, and as for Normalized Routing Load decreased by 4.66%. ERS optimal value for each node’s condition depending on the number of nodes on the network.

Long-term changes in flood event patterns due to changes in hydrological distribution parameters in a rural-urban catchment, Shikoku, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mouri, Goro; Kanae, Shinjiro; Oki, Taikan

2011-07-01

This article describes the principal control parameters of flood events and precipitation and the relationships between corresponding hydrologic and climatologic parameters. The long-term generation of runoff and associated processes is important in understanding floods and droughts under changes in climate and land use. This study presents detailed analyses of flood events in a coastal amphitheatre catchment with a total area of 445 km 2 in western Japan, followed by analyses of flood events in both urban and forest areas. Using long-term (1962 to 2002) hydrological and climatological data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan, the contributions of precipitation, river discharge, temperature, and relative humidity to flood events were analysed. Flood events could be divided into three types with respect to hydrologic and climatologic principal control parameters: the long-term tendency; medium-term changes as revealed by hydrographs and hyetographs of high-intensity events such as the relative precipitation, river discharge, and temperature; and large events, as shown by the flow-duration curve, with each cluster having particular characteristics. River discharge showed a decreasing tendency of flow quantity during small rainfall events of less than 100 mm/event from the 1980s to the present. An approximately 7% decrease from 44.8 to 37.3% occurred in the percentage of river water supplied by precipitation in the years after the 1980s. For the medium-term changes, no marked change occurred in the flow quantity of the peak point over time in event hydrographs. However, flow quantities before and after the peak tended to decrease by 1 to 2 m 3/s after the 1980s. Theoretical considerations with regard to the influence of hydrologic and climatologic parameters on flood discharge are discussed and examined in terms of observational data. These findings provide a sound foundation for use in hydrological catchment modelling.

Impacts of dyke development in flood prone areas in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta to downstream flood hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanh Triet Nguyen, Van; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Fujii, Hideto; Kummu, Matti; Merz, Bruno; Apel, Heiko

2016-04-01

The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) plays an important role in food security and socio-economic development of the country. Being a low-lying coastal region, the VMD is particularly susceptible to both riverine and tidal floods, which provide, on (the) one hand, the basis for the rich agricultural production and the livelihood of the people, but on the other hand pose a considerable hazard depending on the severity of the floods. But despite of potentially hazardous flood, the area remain active as a rice granary due to its nutrient-rich soils and sediment input, and dense waterways, canals and the long standing experience of the population living with floods. In response to both farmers' requests and governmental plans, the construction of flood protection infrastructure in the delta progressed rapidly in the last twenty years, notably at areas prone to deep flooding, i.e. the Plain of Reeds (PoR) and Long Xuyen Quadrangle (LXQ). Triple rice cropping becomes possible in farmlands enclosed by "full-dykes", i.e. dykes strong and high enough to prevent flooding of the flood plains for most of the floods. In these protected flood plains rice can be grown even during the peak flood period (September to November). However, little is known about the possibly (and already alleged) negative impacts of this fully flood protection measure to downstream areas. This study aims at quantifying how the flood regime in the lower part of the VMD (e.g. Can Tho, My Thuan, …) has been changed in the last 2 recent "big flood" events of 2000 and 2011 due to the construction of the full-dyke system in the upper part. First, an evaluation of 35 years of daily water level data was performed in order to detect trends at key gauging stations: Kratie: upper boundary of the Delta, Tan Chau and Chau Doc: areas with full-dyke construction, Can Tho and My Thuan: downstream. Results from the Mann-Kendall (MK) test show a decreasing trend of the annual maximum water level at 3 stations Kratie, Tan Chau and Chau Doc. The MK test statistic results (Z) for these stations are -0.23, -1.39 and -0.84 respectively. In contrary, significant increasing trend (at α = 1%) of annual flood peak at Can Tho and My Thuan is calculated, with the Z value are 5.20 and 4.28. A Monte Carlo experiment by adding assumed observation errors of 5%, 10% and 15% results in similar trend for these stations. After the trend analysis, a set of scenarios are generated based on various hydrological boundaries, infrastructure developments and climate change scenarios. The scenarios are simulated with the quasi-2D hydrodynamic model for the Mekong Delta (Dung, 2011; Manh, 2014) in order to separate and quantify the impacts of flood protection measures to the flood regime in the lower part of the delta in a spatially explicit manner, with a special focus on the urban and economic centers Can Tho and My Thuan. Based on these scenarios the change in flood hazard caused by the infrastructure development that has to be expected is described and possible mitigation actions are proposed.

75 FR 16080 - Notice of Intent To Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement for Basewide Water Infrastructure...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-31

...- design and to develop additional alternatives for analysis. These two water infrastructure projects are... carbon, and reverse osmosis. The facility would be designed in modular form for ease of expandability... lighting, asphalt pavement, and pavement marking and signs. The project includes ``100-year storm'' flood...

Flood resilience and uncertainty in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beven, K.; Leedal, D.; Neal, J.; Bates, P.; Hunter, N.; Lamb, R.; Keef, C.

2012-04-01

Flood risk assessments do not normally take account of the uncertainty in assessing flood risk. There is no requirement in the EU Floods Directive to do so. But given the generally short series (and potential non-stationarity) of flood discharges, the extrapolation to smaller exceedance potentials may be highly uncertain. This means that flood risk mapping may also be highly uncertainty, with additional uncertainties introduced by the representation of flood plain and channel geometry, conveyance and infrastructure. This suggests that decisions about flood plain management should be based on exceedance probability of risk rather than the deterministic hazard maps that are common in most EU countries. Some examples are given from 2 case studies in the UK where a framework for good practice in assessing uncertainty in flood risk mapping has been produced as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium and Catchment Change Network Projects. This framework provides a structure for the communication and audit of assumptions about uncertainties.

Cumulative effects of climate change and ice-wedge degradation, Prudhoe Bay oilfield Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, D. A.; Kanevskiy, M. Z.; Shur, Y.; Raynolds, M. K.; Buchhorn, M.

2016-12-01

Development of Arctic oil & gas resources requires extensive networks of roads, pipelines and other forms of infrastructure. The Prudhoe Bay Oilfield is the largest Arctic oilfield in North America with a long, well-documented history. In a previous publication we analyzed the historical record of high-resolution aerial photos to document the long-term changes to infrastructure extent (1949-2010) for the entire oilfield, and an integrated-geoecological-historical-change-mapping (IGHCM) approach to document terrain changes within 22-km2 areas of the oilfield. We reported the recent widespread expansion of thermokarst, starting in about 1989. Here we examine the annual air-photo record to better pinpoint the years of major change. We also conducted detailed field studies of roadside changes using topographic surveys and soil, vegetation and ice-wedge coring studies. Both sites exhibit extensive ice-wedge degradation that is caused by a combination of a long-term warming trend a series of exceptionally warm summers, and infrastructure-related factors that melted the tops of ice wedges. Near-road thermokarst is enhanced by warmer soils associated with road dust, roadside flooding, near-road pipelines, communication cables, and altered snow regimes. These strongly affect roadside ecosystems and the infrastructure itself. Changes to ecosystems include altered hydrology with the drying of polygon centers and the formation of well-developed high-centered polygons occurs in some areas. Other areas develop extensive flooding and erosion of ice-wedge troughs. An unexpected result of flooding is the stabilization of ice-wedge degradation in some areas because the increased productivity of sedges in the flooded areas is producing large amounts of organic material that protects the tops of ice wedges from further degradation. The large increases in productivity in roadside areas also attract large flocks of waterfowl. Changes to the soils with the addition of thick layers of dust cause decreases in the plant diversity. There are also broad social and economic implications. For example, a flood along the Dalton Highway in 2015 caused extensive degradation of ice wedges, major damage to the Dalton Highway and affected transportation to and from the oilfield for several weeks in Spring 2015.

Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years.

PubMed

Glur, Lukas; Wirth, Stefanie B; Büntgen, Ulf; Gilli, Adrian; Haug, Gerald H; Schär, Christoph; Beer, Jürg; Anselmetti, Flavio S

2013-09-26

Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change.

Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.

2014-12-01

Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ's understanding of the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding at the airports and guiding decision-making in the selection of effective adaptation actions. Given the importance of these airports to transportation, this project is advancing security and continuity of national and international commerce well into the 21st century.

Assessment of Flood Disaster Impacts in Cambodia: Implications for Rapid Disaster Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, Colin

2016-04-01

Disaster monitoring systems can provide near real time estimates of population and infrastructure affected by sudden onset natural hazards. This information is useful to decision makers allocating lifesaving resources following disaster events. Floods are the world's most common and devastating disasters (UN, 2004; Doocy et al., 2013), and are particularly frequent and severe in the developing countries of Southeast Asia (Long and Trong, 2001; Jonkman, 2005; Kahn, 2005; Stromberg, 2007; Kirsch et al., 2012). Climate change, a strong regional monsoon, and widespread hydropower construction contribute to a complex and unpredictable regional hydrodynamic regime. As such, there is a critical need for novel techniques to assess flood impacts to population and infrastructure with haste during and following flood events in order to enable governments and agencies to optimize response efforts following disasters. Here, we build on methods to determine regional flood extent in near real time and develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts of flooding in Cambodia. Software developed on cloud based, distributed processing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is used to demonstrate spatial and numerical estimates of population, households, roadways, schools, hospitals, airports, agriculture and fish catch affected by severe monsoon flooding occurring in the Cambodian portion of Lower Mekong River Basin in 2011. Results show modest agreement with government and agency estimates. Maps and statistics generated from the system are intended to complement on the ground efforts and bridge information gaps to decision makers. The system is open source, flexible, and can be applied to other disasters (e.g. earthquakes, droughts, landslides) in various geographic regions.

The framework of a UAS-aided flash flood modeling system for coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; Xu, H.

2016-02-01

Flash floods cause severe economic damage and are one of the leading causes of fatalities connected with natural disasters in the Gulf Coast region. Current flash flood modeling systems rely on empirical hydrological models driven by precipitation estimates only. Although precipitation is the driving factor for flash floods, soil moisture, urban drainage system and impervious surface have been recognized to have significant impacts on the development of flash floods. We propose a new flash flooding modeling system that integrates 3-D hydrological simulation with satellite and multi-UAS observations. It will have three advantages over existing modeling systems. First, it will incorporate 1-km soil moisture data through integrating satellite images from European SMOS mission and NASA's SMAP mission. The utilization of high-resolution satellite images will provide essential information to determine antecedent soil moisture condition, which is an essential control on flood generation. Second, this system is able to adjust flood forecasting based on real-time inundation information collected by multi-UAS. A group of UAS will be deployed during storm events to capture the changing extent of flooded areas and water depth at multiple critical locations simultaneously. Such information will be transmitted to a hydrological model to validate and improve flood simulation. Third, the backbone of this system is a state-of-the-art 3-D hydrological model that assimilates the hydrological information from satellites and multi-UAS. The model is able to address surface water-groundwater interactions and reflect the effects of various infrastructures. Using Web-GIS technologies, the modeling results will be available online as interactive flood maps accessible to the public. To support the development and verification of this modeling system, surface and subsurface hydrological observations will be conducted in a number of small watersheds in the Coastal Bend region. We envision this system will provide an innovative means to benefit the forecasting, evaluation and mitigation of flash floods in costal regions.

Interactions between the flooding regime and floodplain grasslands in the Tana River Delta, in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leauthaud, Crystele; Musila, Winfred; Duvail, Stéphanie; Kergoat, Laurent; Hiernaux, Pierre; Grippa, Manuela; Albergel, Jean

2017-04-01

The floodplain grasslands of the Tana River Delta, located on the East African coast in Kenya, form part of an intertwined socio-ecological deltaic system of high biodiversity value that delivers numerous goods and services. Mainly composed of Echinochloa stagnina (Retz) P. Beauv., a high-value forage species, this ecosystem is the major dry-season grazing grounds of the local pastoralist communities. The construction of hydroelectric infrastructure has led to a modification of the flooding regime. The impacts of the resulting reduction of floods in the deltaic zone on ecosystem properties and services still need to be assessed. In such a perspective, this study characterizes the link between the flooding regime of the Tana River and the growth pattern of its floodplain grassland. Aboveground dry phytomass was sampled for 15 months under a wide variety of naturally flooded and non-flooded conditions and controlled irrigation and cutting frequency treatments. Annual aboveground dry phytomass attained high values between 11 T.ha-1 and 32 T.ha-1 and annual net primary production of the grasslands reached 35 T.ha-1.year-1. Growth rates clearly depended on the flooding regime, management and climate conditions and were on average more than twice as fast during, and 50% faster after the floods, relative to pre-flood conditions. A plant growth model allowed testing the effect of different flooding regimes on plant productivity, confirming very low productivity in the absence of floods. These results suggest that rangeland and water management for the Tana River deltaic wetlands are tightly linked. The projected construction of another dam could lead to a reduction of flood extent and period and a decrease of grassland productivity and growth duration. Mitigation of this type of negative impacts, which will have direct and adverse consequences for the pastoralist communities as well as on the delivery of other goods and services, needs to be undertaken.

Health Care Access and Utilization after the 2010 Pakistan Floods.

PubMed

Jacquet, Gabrielle A; Kirsch, Thomas; Durrani, Aqsa; Sauer, Lauren; Doocy, Shannon

2016-10-01

Introduction The 2010 floods submerged more than one-fifth of Pakistan's land area and affected more than 20 million people. Over 1.6 million homes were damaged or destroyed and 2,946 direct injuries and 1,985 deaths were reported. Infrastructure damage was widespread, including critical disruptions to the power and transportation networks. Hypothesis Damage and loss of critical infrastructure will affect the population's ability to seek and access adequate health care for years to come. This study sought to evaluate factors associated with access to health care in the aftermath of the 2010 Pakistan floods. A population-proportional, randomized cluster-sampling survey method with 80 clusters of 20 (1,600) households of the flood-affected population was used. Heads of households were surveyed approximately six months after flood onset. Multivariate analysis was used to determine significance. A total of 77.8% of households reported needing health services within the first month after the floods. Household characteristics, including rural residence location, large household size, and lower pre- and post-flood income, were significantly associated (P<.05) with inadequate access to health care after the disaster. Households with inadequate access to health care were more likely to have a death or injury in the household. Significantly higher odds of inadequate access to health care were observed in rural populations (adjusted OR 4.26; 95% CI, 1.89-9.61). Adequate health care access after the 2010 Pakistani floods was associated with urban residence location, suggesting that locating health care providers in rural areas may be difficult. Access to health services also was associated with post-flood income level, suggesting health resources are not readily available to households suffering great income losses. Jacquet GA , Kirsch T , Durrani A , Sauer L , Doocy S . Health care access and utilization after the 2010 Pakistan floods. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(5):485-491.

The Role of Social Media in the Civic Co-Management of Urban Infrastructure Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turpin, E.; Holderness, T.; Wickramasuriya, R.

2014-12-01

As cities evolve to become increasingly complex systems of people and interconnected infrastructure the impacts of extreme events and long term climatological change are significantly heightened (Walsh et al. 2011). Understanding the resilience of urban systems and the impacts of infrastructure failure is therefore key to understanding the adaptability of cities to climate change (Rosenzweig 2011). Such information is particularly critical in developing nations which are predicted to bear the brunt of climate change (Douglas et al., 2008), but often lack the resources and data required to make informed decisions regarding infrastructure and societal resilience (e.g. Paar & Rekittke 2011). We propose that mobile social media in a people-as-sensors paradigm provides a means of monitoring the response of a city to cascading infrastructure failures induced by extreme weather events. Such an approach is welcomed in developing nations where crowd-sourced data are increasingly being used as an alternative to missing or incomplete formal data sources to help solve infrastructure challenges (Holderness 2014). In this paper we present PetaJakarta.org as a case study that harnesses the power of social media to gather, sort and display information about flooding for residents of Jakarta, Indonesia in real time, recuperating the failures of infrastructure and monitoring systems through a web of social media connections. Our GeoSocial Intelligence Framework enables the capture and comprehension of significant time-critical information to support decision-making, and as a means of transparent communication, while maintaining user privacy, to enable civic co-management processes to aid city-scale climate adaptation and resilience. PetaJakarta empowers community residents to collect and disseminate situational information about flooding, via the social media network Twitter, to provide city-scale decision support for Jakarta's Emergency Management Team, and a neighbourhood-scale public information service for individuals and communities to alert them of nearby flood events. Douglas I., et al. 2008 ENVIRONMENT & URBANIZATION Holderness T. 2014 IEEE TECHNOLOGY & SOCIETY MAGAZINE Paar P. & Rekittke J. 2011 FUTURE INTERNET Rosenzweig C. 2011 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN Walsh C. L., et al. 2011 URBAN DESIGN & PLANNING

Evaluation of Green Infrastructure on Peak Flow Mitigation Focusing on the Connectivity of Impervious Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Y.; Hwang, J.; Kwon, Y.

2017-12-01

The existence of impervious areas is one of the most distinguishing characteristics of urban catchments. It decreases infiltration and increases direct runoff in urban catchments. The recent introduction of green infrastructure in urban catchments for the purpose of sustainable development contributes to the decrease of the directly connected impervious areas (DCIA) by isolating existing impervious areas and consequently, to the flood risk mitigation. This study coupled the width function-based instantaneous hydrograph (WFIUH), which is able to handle the spatial distribution of the impervious areas, with the concept of the DCIA to assess the impact of decreasing DCIA on the shape of direct runoff hydrographs. Using several scenarios for typical green infrastructure and corresponding changes of DCIA in a test catchment, this study evaluated the effect of green infrastructure on the shape of the resulting direct runoff hydrographs and peak flows. The results showed that the changes in the DCIA immediately affects the shape of the direct runoff hydrograph and decreases peak flows depending on spatial implementation scenarios. The quantitative assessment of the spatial distribution of impervious areas and also the changes to the DCIA suggests effective and well-planned green infrastructure can be introduced in urban environments for flood risk management.

General characteristics of causes of urban flood damage and flood forecasting/warning system in Seoul, Korea Young-Il Moon1, 2, Jong-Suk Kim1, 2 1 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 130-743, South Korea 2 Urban Flood Research Inst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-Suk

2015-04-01

Due to rapid urbanization and climate change, the frequency of concentrated heavy rainfall has increased, causing urban floods that result in casualties and property damage. As a consequence of natural disasters that occur annually, the cost of damage in Korea is estimated to be over two billion US dollars per year. As interest in natural disasters increase, demands for a safe national territory and efficient emergency plans are on the rise. In addition to this, as a part of the measures to cope with the increase of inland flood damage, it is necessary to build a systematic city flood prevention system that uses technology to quantify flood risk as well as flood forecast based on both rivers and inland water bodies. Despite the investment and efforts to prevent landside flood damage, research and studies of landside-river combined hydro-system is at its initial stage in Korea. Therefore, the purpose of this research introduces the causes of flood damage in Seoul and shows a flood forecasting and warning system in urban streams of Seoul. This urban flood forecasting and warning system conducts prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and performs prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded area and also supports synthetic decision-making for prevention through real-time monitoring. Although we cannot prevent damage from typhoons or localized heavy rain, we can minimize that damage with accurate and timely forecast and a prevention system. To this end, we developed a flood forecasting and warning system, so in case of an emergency there is enough time for evacuation and disaster control. Keywords: urban flooding, flood risk, inland-river system, Korea Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant (13AWMP-B066744-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

2007 National Small Business Conference: Critical Infrastructure Opportunities

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-18

Flooding of Subway Tunnels From IED Bomber Maximize lives saved – provide time to evacuate Recent advances in inflatable structure technology: • Stronger...Polimetry/ Signal Processing technologies (Radar & Sonar) Low Cost Advanced Composite Structures Low Cost Composite Sandwich Structures and...Ubiquitous Chem/Bio Detect 34 High Impact Technology Solutions Resilient Tunnel Prevent Flooding of Subway Tunnels From IED Bomber Maximize lives saved

Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez;

Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands.

PubMed

Natuzzi, Eileen S; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

2016-08-03

Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands

PubMed Central

Natuzzi, Eileen S.; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. PMID:27091867

An overview of road damages due to flooding: Case study in Kedah state, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Muhd Shahril Nizam; Ghani, Abdul Naser Abdul

2017-10-01

Flooding occurs frequently in many countries including Malaysia. Floods in Malaysia are usually due to heavy and prolonged rainfall, uncontrolled development, and drainage systems that are not being monitored. Road damage due to flooding event can cause huge expenditures for the post-flooding rehabilitation and maintenance. The required maintenance and rehabilitation could upset the original life cycle cost estimations. Data on road statistics were obtained from the Highway Planning Division, Ministry of Works Malaysia and data on flooding was collected from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia for events between 2012 and 2015. The pilot sites were selected based on its historical cases of floods that caused road damages in Kedah. The pilot site indicated that the impact of flooding on road infrastructures systems can be used to plan better road design and maintenances. It also revealed that it costs more than RM 1 million to reinstate roads damaged by flooding in a typical district annually.

A Strategy for a Parametric Flood Insurance Using Proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraguchi, M.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Traditionally, the design of flood control infrastructure and flood plain zoning require the estimation of return periods, which have been calculated by river hydraulic models with rainfall-runoff models. However, this multi-step modeling process leads to significant uncertainty to assess inundation. In addition, land use change and changing climate alter the potential losses, as well as make the modeling results obsolete. For these reasons, there is a strong need to create parametric indexes for the financial risk transfer for large flood events, to enable rapid response and recovery. Hence, this study examines the possibility of developing a parametric flood index at the national or regional level in Asia, which can be quickly mobilized after catastrophic floods. Specifically, we compare a single trigger based on rainfall index with multiple triggers using rainfall and streamflow indices by conducting case studies in Bangladesh and Thailand. The proposed methodology is 1) selecting suitable indices of rainfall and streamflow (if available), 2) identifying trigger levels for specified return periods for losses using stepwise and logistic regressions, 3) measuring the performance of indices, and 4) deriving return periods of selected windows and trigger levels. Based on the methodology, actual trigger levels were identified for Bangladesh and Thailand. Models based on multiple triggers reduced basis risks, an inherent problem in an index insurance. The proposed parametric flood index can be applied to countries with similar geographic and meteorological characteristics, and serve as a promising method for ex-ante risk financing for developing countries. This work is intended to be a preliminary work supporting future work on pricing risk transfer mechanisms in ex-ante risk finance.

Towards an integrated flood management approach to address trade-offs between ecosystem services: Insights from the Dutch and German Rhine, Hungarian Tisza, and Chinese Yangtze basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halbe, Johannes; Knüppe, Kathrin; Knieper, Christian; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia

2018-04-01

The utilization of ecosystem services in flood management is challenged by the complexity of human-nature interactions and practical implementation barriers towards more ecosystem-based solutions, such as riverine urban areas or technical infrastructure. This paper analyses how flood management has dealt with trade-offs between ecosystem services and practical constrains towards more ecosystem-based solutions. To this end, we study the evolution of flood management in four case studies in the Dutch and German Rhine, the Hungarian Tisza, and the Chinese Yangtze basins during the last decades, focusing on the development and implementation of institutions and their link to ecosystem services. The complexity of human-nature interactions is addressed by exploring the impacts on ecosystem services through the lens of three management paradigms: (1) the control paradigm, (2) the ecosystem-based paradigm, and (3) the stakeholder involvement paradigm. Case study data from expert interviews and a literature search were structured using a database approach prior to qualitative interpretation. Results show the growing importance of the ecosystem-based and stakeholder involvement paradigms which has led to the consideration of a range of regulating and cultural ecosystem services that had previously been neglected. We detected a trend in flood management practice towards the combination of the different paradigms under the umbrella of integrated flood management, which aims at finding the most suitable solution depending on the respective regional conditions.

The link between land use and flood risk assessment in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sörensen, Johanna; Kalantari, Zahra

2017-04-01

Densification of urban areas rises a concern for increased pluvial flooding. Flood risk in urban areas might rise under impact of land use changes. Urbanisation involves conversion of natural areas to impermeable areas giving lower infiltration rates and increased runoff. When high-intense rainfall excess the capacity of the drainage system in a city, high runoff causes pluvial flooding in low-laying areas. In the present study, a long time series (20 years) of geo-referenced flood claims from property owners has been collected and analysed in detail to assess flood risk under impact of land use changes in urban areas. The flood claim data come from property owners with flood insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls, as well as flooding from the drainage system, and are used as a proxy for flood severity. The spatial relationships between land use change and flood occurrences in different urban areas were analysed. Special emphasis were put on how nature-based solutions and blue-green infrastructure relates to flood risk. The relationships defined by a statistical method explaining the tendencies where the land use change contributes to flood risk changes and others engaged factors.

Impacts of Extreme Flooding on Hydrologic Connectivity and Water Quality in the Atlantic Coastal Plain and Implications for Vulnerable Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riveros-Iregui, D. A.; Moser, H. A.; Christenson, E. C.; Gray, J.; Hedgespeth, M. L.; Jass, T. L.; Lowry, D. S.; Martin, K.; Nichols, E. G.; Stewart, J. R.; Emanuel, R. E.

2017-12-01

In October 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought extreme flooding to eastern North Carolina, including record regional flooding along the Lumber River and its tributaries in the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Situated in a region dominated by large-scale crop-cultivation and containing some of the highest densities of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) and animal processing operations in the U.S., the Lumber River watershed is also home to the Lumbee Tribe of American Indians. Most of the tribe's 60,000+ members live within or immediately adjacent to the 3,000 km2 watershed where they maintain deep cultural and historical connections. The region, however, also suffers from high rates of poverty and large disparities in healthcare, education, and infrastructure, conditions exacerbated by Hurricane Matthew. We summarize ongoing efforts to characterize the short- and long-term impacts of extreme flooding on water quality in (1) low gradient streams and riverine wetlands of the watershed; (2) surficial aquifers, which provide water resources for the local communities, and (3) public drinking water supplies, which derive from deeper, confined aquifers but whose infrastructure suffered widespread damage following Hurricane Matthew. Our results provide mechanistic understanding of flood-related connectivity across multiple hydrologic compartments, and provide important implications for how hydrological natural hazards combine with land use to drive water quality impacts and affect vulnerable populations.

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, C.; Fayne, Jessica

2016-01-01

Floods are the costliest natural disaster (United Nations 2004), causing approximately6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone (Doocy et al. 2013).Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD(Munich Re 2013). Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries (Davies et al. 2014).Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change (IPCC 2007). Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assessflooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure.

Structuring Disaster Recovery Infrastructure Decisions: Lessons from Boulder County's 2013 Flood Recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clavin, C.; Petropoulos, Z.

2017-12-01

Recovery phase decision making processes, as compared to mitigation and response phase decision making processes, require communities make significant financial and capital decisions in the months after a disaster. Collectively, these investments may significantly contribute to the resilience of a community to future hazards. Pre-disaster administrative decisions are well-established within existing planning processes. Post-event recovery requires community decision makers to quickly evaluate technical proposals and manage significant recovery financial resources to ensure their community rebuilds in a manner that will be more resilient to future events. These technical and administrative hurdles in the aftermath of a disaster create a challenging atmosphere to make sound, scientifically-informed decisions leading to resilient recovery. In September 2013, a 1,000-year rain event that resulted in flooding throughout the Front Range of Colorado, significantly impacting Boulder County. While the event is long past, disaster recovery efforts still continue in parts of Boulder County. Boulder County officials formed a county collaborative that adapted the NIST Community Resilience Planning Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems to facilitate a goals-based multi-criteria decision making process. Rather than use hazard-based information to guide infrastructure design, the county's decision process established time-to-recovery goals for infrastructure systems that were used as criteria for project design. This presentation explores the decision-making process employed by Boulder County to specify design standards for resilient rebuilding of infrastructure systems and examine how this infrastructure planning model could be extrapolated to other situations where there is uncertainty regarding future infrastructure design standards.

Challenges in Projecting Sea Level Rise impacts on the Coastal Environment of South Florida (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.; Park, J.; Irizarry-Ortiz, M. M.; Barnes, J. A.; Trimble, P.; Said, W.

2010-12-01

Due to flat topography, a highly transmissive groundwater aquifer, and a growing population with the associated infrastructure, South Florida’s coastal environment is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise. Current projections of sea level rise and the associated storm surges will have direct impacts on coastal beaches and infrastructure, flood protection, freshwater aquifers, and both the isolated and regional wetlands. Uncertainties in current projections have made it difficult for regional and local governments to develop adaptation strategies as such measures will depend heavily on the temporal and spatial patterns of sea level rise in the coming decades. We demonstrate the vulnerability of both the built and natural environments of the coastal region and present the current efforts to understand and predict the sea level rise estimate that management agencies could employ in planning of adaptation strategies. In particular, the potential vulnerabilities of the flood control system as well as the threat to the water supply wellfields in the coastal belt will be presented. In an effort to understand the historical variability of sea level rise, we present linkages to natural phenomena such as Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and the analytical methods we have developed to provide probabilistic projections of both mean sea level rise and the extremes.

Flooding and Emergency Room Visits for Gastrointestinal Illness in Massachusetts: A Case-Crossover Study

PubMed Central

Wade, Timothy J.; Lin, Cynthia J.; Jagai, Jyotsna S.; Hilborn, Elizabeth D.

2014-01-01

Introduction Floods and other severe weather events are anticipated to increase as a result of global climate change. Floods can lead to outbreaks of gastroenteritis and other infectious diseases due to disruption of sewage and water infrastructure and impacts on sanitation and hygiene. Floods have also been indirectly associated with outbreaks through population displacement and crowding. Methods We conducted a case-crossover study to investigate the association between flooding and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness (ER-GI) in Massachusetts for the years 2003 through 2007. We obtained ER-GI visits from the State of Massachusetts and records of floods from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Storm Events Database. ER-GI visits were considered exposed if a flood occurred in the town of residence within three hazard periods of the visit: 0–4 days; 5–9 days; and 10–14 days. A time-stratified bi-directional design was used for control selection, matching on day of the week with two weeks lead or lag time from the ER-GI visit. Fixed effect logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk of ER-GI visits following the flood. Results and Conclusions A total of 270,457 ER-GI visits and 129 floods occurred in Massachusetts over the study period. Across all counties, flooding was associated with an increased risk for ER-GI in the 0–4 day period after flooding (Odds Ratio: 1.08; 95% Confidence Interval: 1.03–1.12); but not the 5–9 days (Odds Ratio: 0.995; 95% Confidence Interval: 0.955–1.04) or the 10–14 days after (Odds Ratio: 0.966, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.927–1.01). Similar results were observed for different definitions of ER-GI. The effect differed across counties, suggesting local differences in the risk and impact of flooding. Statewide, across the study period, an estimated 7% of ER-GI visits in the 0–4 days after a flood event were attributable to flooding. PMID:25329916

Performance of Oil Infrastructure during Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernier, C.; Kameshwar, S.; Padgett, J.

2017-12-01

Three major refining centers - Corpus Christi, Houston, and Beaumont/Port Arthur - were affected during Hurricane Harvey. Damage to oil infrastructure, especially aboveground storage tanks (ASTs), caused the release of more than a million gallons of hazardous chemicals in the environment. The objective of this presentation is to identify and gain a better understanding of the different damage mechanisms that occurred during Harvey in order to avoid similar failures during future hurricane events. First, a qualitative description of the damage suffered by ASTs during Hurricane Harvey is presented. Analysis of aerial imagery and incident reports indicate that almost all spills were caused by rainfall and the associated flooding. The largest spill was caused by two large ASTs that floated due to flooding in the Houston Ship Channel releasing 500,000 gallons of gasoline. The vulnerability of ASTs subjected to flooding was already well known and documented from previous storm events. In addition to flooding, Harvey also exposed the vulnerability of ASTs with external floating roof to extreme rainfall; more than 15 floating roofs sank or tilted due to rain water accumulation on them, releasing pollutants in the atmosphere. Secondly, recent fragility models developed by the authors are presented which allow structural vulnerability assessment of floating roofs during rainfall events and ASTs during flood events. The fragility models are then coupled with Harvey rainfall and flood empirical data to identify the conditions (i.e.: internal liquid height or density, drainage system design and efficiency, etc.) that could have led to the observed failures during Hurricane Harvey. Finally, the conditions causing tank failures are studied to propose mitigation measures to prevent future AST failures during severe storm, flood, or rainfall events.

Multiple-resolution Modeling of flood processes in urban catchments using WRF-Hydro: A Case Study in south Louisiana.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saad, H.; Habib, E. H.

2017-12-01

In August 2016, the city of Lafayette and many other urban centers in south Louisiana experienced catastrophic flooding resulting from prolonged rainfall. Statewide, this historic storm displaced more than 30,000 people from their homes, resulted in damages up to $8.7 billion, put rescue workers at risk, interrupted institutions of education and business, and worst of all, resulted in the loss of life of at least 13 Louisiana residents. With growing population and increasing signs of climate change, the frequency of major floods and severe storms is expected to increase, as will the impacts of these events on our communities. Local communities need improved capabilities for forecasting flood events, monitoring of flood impacts on roads and key infrastructure, and effectively communicating real-time flood dangers at scales that are useful to the public. The current study presents the application of the WRF-Hydro modeling system to represent integrated hydrologic, hydraulic and hydrometeorological processes that drive flooding in urban basins at temporal and spatial scales that can be useful to local communities. The study site is the 25- mile2 Coulee mine catchment in Lafayette, south Louisiana. The catchment includes two tributaries with natural streams located within mostly agricultural lands. The catchment crosses the I-10 highway and through the metropolitan area of the City of Lafayette into a man-made channel, which eventually drains into the Vermilion River and the Gulf of Mexico. Due to its hydrogeomorphic setting, local and rapid diversification of land uses, low elevation, and interdependent infrastructure, the integrated modeling of this coulee is considered a challenge. A nested multi-scale model is being built using the WRF-HYDRO, with 500m and 10m resolutions for the NOAH land-surface model and diffusive wave terrain routing grids, respectively.

Flexibility in flood management design: proactive planning under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2016-12-01

This paper presents a value-enhancing approach for proactive planning and design of long-lived flood management infrastructure given uncertain future flooding threats. Designing infrastructure that can be adapted over time is a method to safeguard the efficacy of current design decisions given future uncertainties. We explore the value of embedding "options" in a physical structure, where an option is the right but not the obligation to do something at a later date (e.g. over-dimensioning a floodwall foundation now facilitates a future height addition in response to observed increases in sea level; building extra pump bays in a drainage pumping station enables the easy addition of pumping capacity whenever increased precipitation warrants an expansion.) The proposed approach couples a simulation model that captures future climate induced changes to the hydrologic operating environment of a structure, with an economic model that estimates the lifetime economic performance of alternative investment strategies. The economic model uses Real "In" Options analysis, a type of cash flow analysis that quantifies the implicit value of options and the flexibility they provide. We demonstrate the approach using replacement planning for the multi-functional pumping station IJmuiden on the North Sea Canal in the Netherlands. The analysis models flexibility in design decisions, varying the size and specific options included in the new structure. Results indicate that the incorporation of options within the structural design has the potential to improve its economic performance, as compared to more traditional, "build it once and build it big" designs where flexibility is not an explicit design criterion. The added value resulting from the incorporation of flexibility varies with the range of future conditions considered, and the specific options examined. This approach could be applied to explore investment strategies for the design of other flood management structures, as well as be expanded to look more at flexibility within an infrastructure network rather than a single structure. Flexibility in flood management design:proactive planning under uncertainty

How do local stakeholders respond to the uncertain implications of an innovative flood infrastructure project?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Hoek, Ronald; Brugnach, Marcela; Hoekstra, Arjen

2013-04-01

In the 20th century, flood management was dominated by rigid structures - such as dikes and dams - which intend to strictly regulate and control water systems. Although the application of these rigid structures has been successful in the recent past, their negative implications for ecosystems and natural processes is often not properly taken into account. Therefore, flood management practices are currently moving towards more nature-inclusive approaches. Building with Nature (BwN) is such a new approach of nature-inclusive flood management in the Netherlands, which aims to utilize natural dynamics (e.g., wind and currents) and natural materials (e.g., sediment and vegetation) for the realization of effective flood infrastructure, while providing opportunities for nature development. However, the natural dynamics driving a project based on BwN design principles are inherently unpredictable. Furthermore, our factual knowledge base regarding the socio-ecological system in which the BwN initiative is implemented is incomplete. Moreover, in recent years, it is increasingly aimed for by decision-makers to involve local stakeholders in the development of promising flood management initiatives. These stakeholders and other actors involved can have diverging views regarding the project, can perceive unanticipated implications and could choose unforeseen action paths. In short, while a project based on BwN design principles - like any human intervention - definitely has implications for the socio-ecological system, both the extent to which these particular implications will occur and the response of stakeholders are highly uncertain. In this paper, we study the Safety Buffer Oyster Dam case - a BwN pilot project - and address the interplay between the project's implications, the uncertainties regarding these implications and the action paths chosen by the local stakeholders and project team. We determine how the implications of the Safety Buffer project are viewed by local stakeholders, identify the frames and uncertainties related to these implications, and classify these uncertainties according to their nature and level. We describe which action paths are chosen by the local stakeholders and project team regarding the implications identified. Our research shows that there is a correspondence between the level of uncertainty about the implications identified and the action paths chosen by the actors involved. This suggests that the inherent deep uncertainty in projects based on BwN principles calls for more adaptable and flexible strategies to cope with the implications of these initiatives.

Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2012-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

Flood prediction, its risk and mitigation for the Babura River with GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarigan, A. P. M.; Hanie, M. Z.; Khair, H.; Iskandar, R.

2018-03-01

This paper describes the flood prediction along the Babura River, the catchment of which is within the comparatively larger watershed of the Deli River which crosses the centre part of Medan City. The flood plain and ensuing inundation area were simulated using HECRAS based on the available data of rainfall, catchment, and river cross-sections. The results were shown in a GIS format in which the city map of Medan and other infrastructure layers were stacked for spatial analysis. From the resulting GIS, it can be seen that 13 sub-districts were likely affected by the flood, and then the risk calculation of the flood damage could be estimated. In the spirit of flood mitigation thoughts, 6 locations of evacuation centres were identified and 15 evacuation routes were recommended to reach the centres. It is hoped that the flood prediction and its risk estimation in this study will inspire the preparedness of the stakeholders for the probable threat of flood disaster.

Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years

PubMed Central

Glur, Lukas; Wirth, Stefanie B.; Büntgen, Ulf; Gilli, Adrian; Haug, Gerald H.; Schär, Christoph; Beer, Jürg; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

2013-01-01

Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change. PMID:24067733

Soak Up the Rain: What's the Problem?

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Why citizens and communities should soak up the rain with green infrastructure: to prevent water pollution, reduce flooding, protect water resources, beautify neighborhoods and other community benefits

Flash Flood Type Identification within Catchments in Beijing Mountainous Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nan, W.

2017-12-01

Flash flood is a common type of disaster in mountainous area, Flash flood with the feature of large flow rate, strong flushing force, destructive power, has periodically caused loss to life and destruction to infrastructure in mountainous area. Beijing as China's political, economic and cultural center, the disaster prevention and control work in Beijing mountainous area has always been concerned widely. According to the transport mechanism, sediment concentration and density, the flash flood type identification within catchment can provide basis for making the hazards prevention and mitigation policy. Taking Beijing as the study area, this paper extracted parameters related to catchment morphological and topography features respectively. By using Bayes discriminant, Logistic regression and Random forest, the catchments in Beijing mountainous area were divided into water floods process, fluvial sediment transport process and debris flows process. The results found that Logistic regression analysis showed the highest accuracy, with the overall accuracy of 88.2%. Bayes discriminant and Random forest had poor prediction effects. This study confirmed the ability of morphological and topography features to identify flash flood process. The circularity ratio, elongation ratio and roughness index can be used to explain the flash flood types effectively, and the Melton ratio and elevation relief ratio also did a good job during the identification, whereas the drainage density seemed not to be an issue at this level of detail. Based on the analysis of spatial patterns of flash flood types, fluvial sediment transport process and debris flow process were the dominant hazards, while the pure water flood process was much less. The catchments dominated by fluvial sediment transport process were mainly distributed in the Yan Mountain region, where the fault belts were relatively dense. The debris flow process prone to occur in the Taihang Mountain region thanks to the abundant coal gangues. The pure water flood process catchments were mainly distributed in the transitional mountain front.

On Assessment and Estimation of Potential Losses due to Land Subsidence in Urban Areas of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Andreas, Heri; Gumilar, Irwan; Sidiq, Teguh P.

2016-04-01

Land subsidence is natural-anthropogenic hazard affecting several large urban areas in Indonesia, i.e. Jakarta, Bandung and Semarang. Geodetic based results from various techniques (e.g. Leveling, GPS and InSAR) show that land subsidence rates in all three cities generally have spatial and temporal variations, and their magnitude is in average about 5-10 cm/year. The impacts of subsidence in those cities can be seen in the field in various forms such as cracking of permanent constructions and roads, tilting of houses and buildings, 'sinking' of houses and buildings, changes in river canal and drain flow systems, wider expansion of coastal and/or inland flooding areas, and increased inland sea water intrusion. These impacts can be categorized into infrastructure, environmental, economic, and social impacts. The potential losses due to land subsidence in urban areas are actually quite significant. Related infrastructural, social and environmental costs due to direct and indirect impacts of land subsidence are economically quite significant, and can not be underestimated in sustainable urban development. The planning, development and maintenance costs of building and infrastructures in the affected areas are usually much higher than the normal situation. The collateral impact of coastal subsidence in Jakarta and Semarang, in the form of coastal flooding during high tides is also quite damaging. This repeated coastal flooding in several areas along the coast will deteriorate the structure and function of building and infrastructures, badly influences the quality of the living environment and life (e.g. health and sanitation condition), and also disrupts economic and social activities in the affected areas. As in the case of Bandung, inland subsidence also has a quite significant impact on inland flooding phenomena, since it will theoretically lead to expanded coverage and deeper water depth of flooded (inundated) areas. Since the direct and indirect impacts of subsidence have also relation among each other, the accurate quantification of the potential losses caused by land subsidence in urban areas is not an easy task to accomplish. The direct losses can be easier to estimate than the indirect losses. For example, the direct losses due to land subsidence in Bandung was estimated to be at least 180 Million USD; but the indirect losses is still unknown.

Hydro-Geomorphic Connectivity in Arid Watershed: Anthropogenic Effects and Extreme Flash flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egozi, Roey

2017-04-01

Arid watersheds are excellent settings to study water and sediment connectivity because of spars vegetation and the possibility to make clearer links between climate parameters and topographical changes. However different flood event magnitudes may result in different degrees of connectivity. This even gets more complicated when man made modifications to the drainage system are done without considering the outcomes in terms of the potential of flood damage and risks, i.e. in the case of extreme flash floods. Herein we report on the results from two studies conducted in two different small catchments along the dead sea rift: Wadi A Dalia and Wadi Ras Moakif. The studies conducted as part of a larger project aimed at investigating the floods and damages triggered by a rare storm event occurred at the end of October 2015. This storm event covered all of Israel and characterized with rare rainfall depths and intensities as well as floods with rare pick discharges. Observations and field measurements of bed material, river cross sections and water elevation markers were done and statistical analysis has been performed to estimate the exceed probability of the different measured and estimated hydro-climatic values. In Wadi-A-Dalia the coupling of rare rainfall depths over the watershed area which itself was bare due to over grazing result in a major flood. The severe damage caused by this flood was intensified due to the increase of structural hydrologic connectivity, i.e. flood protection canal discharged higher volumes of water collected from small Wadi systems at the same time. In Wadi Ras Moakif the rainfall cells did not produced rare rainfall, but still a major flood occurred over a very short distance of the main channel transporting huge amount of bed material deposited and blocked the main road along the dead sea western coast. In this case the cause was similar - a modification to the drainage system result in increase structural hydrologic connectivity lead to runoff concentration and higher stream power value. The results suggest that in arid watersheds flood protection measures that involve modifications to the drainage system such that the structural hydrologic connectivity improves with the aim to conduit the volume of water away may fail to provide the protection planned and may cause higher damage to infrastructures. Therefore, hydrologic connectivity should become a parameter in flood control design. Moreover, studying hydrologic connectivity in natural landscapes may provide valid solutions for flood control design projects.

Evaluation of a Socio-Hydrologic Model for the Rebuilding of Biloxi, Mississippi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calhoun, J. L.; O'Donnell, F. C.; Burton, C. G.

2017-12-01

In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina ripped through the Gulf Coast of the United States causing billions in damage. The storm cost the City of Biloxi, Mississippi $355 million in infrastructure repair, which is being constructed with funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Approximately 30% of the city's storm systems including storm drains, bridges and culverts are being replaced and updated utilizing FEMA Hazard Mitigation funding to lessen the impact of future natural disasters. The infrastructure is being upgraded from conveying a 4% annual chance storm event to a 1% annual chance storm event. An extensive socio-economic data set of the impacts of Hurricane Katrina along the Mississippi Gulf Coast was used to analyze recovery in the area. The recovery data set assessed the area directly after the storm in 2005 thru 2010 with an analysis of recovery five years after the storm. This study uses a dynamic socio-hydrologic model with modifications to relate the change in flow capacity of engineered structures and socio-economic processes. The results will be used to assess the hypothesis that raising flood protection increases the base flood elevation levels and therefore requires a higher level of flood protection. The increase in flood protect eases the fears of the community leading them to not require additional flood protection when developing in flood prone areas and strengthening the socio-hydrologic association. The results will also be evaluated to create a tool for the City of Biloxi to improve their resilience from future hurricanes and storm surge events.

Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

PubMed

Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

2018-07-15

The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation of Water Supply and Flood Control Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, T. L.; Yang, P.; Bhushan, R.

2016-12-01

With climate change, streamflows are expected to become more fluctuating, with more frequent and intense floods and droughts. This complicates reservoir operation, which is highly sensitive to inflow variability. We make a comparative evaluation of three strategies for adapting reservoirs to climate-induced shifts in streamflow patterns. Specifically, we examine the effectiveness of (i) expanding the capacities of reservoirs by way of new off-stream reservoirs, (ii) introducing wastewater reclamation to augment supplies, and (iii) improving real-time streamflow forecasts for more optimal decision-making. The first two are hard strategies involving major infrastructure modifications, while the third a soft strategy entailing adjusting the system operation. A comprehensive side-by-side comparison of the three strategies is as yet lacking in the literature despite the many past studies investigating the strategies individually. To this end, we developed an adaptive forward-looking linear program that solves to yield the optimal decisions for the current time as a function of an ensemble forecast of future streamflows. Solving the model repeatedly on a rolling basis with regular updating of the streamflow forecast simulates the system behavior over the entire operating horizon. Results are generated for two hypothetical water supply and flood control reservoirs of differing inflows and demands. Preliminary findings suggest that of the three strategies, improving streamflow forecasts to be most effective in mitigating the effects of climate change. We also found that, in average terms, both additional reservoir capacity and wastewater reclamation have potential to reduce water shortage and downstream flooding. However, in the worst case, the potential of the former to reduce water shortage is limited, and similarly so the potential of the latter to reduce downstream flooding.

Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE PAGES

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.; ...

2018-02-01

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Rural livelihoods and household adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motsholapheko, M. R.; Kgathi, D. L.; Vanderpost, C.

Adaptation to flooding is now widely adopted as an appropriate policy option since flood mitigation measures largely exceed the capability of most developing countries. In wetlands, such as the Okavango Delta, adaptation is more appropriate as these systems serve as natural flood control mechanisms. The Okavango Delta system is subject to annual variability in flooding with extreme floods resulting in adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. This study therefore seeks to improve the general understanding of rural household livelihood adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta. Specific objectives are: (1) to assess household access to forms of capital necessary for enhanced capacity to adapt, (2) to assess the impacts of extreme flooding on household livelihoods, and (3) to identify and assess household livelihood responses to extreme flooding. The study uses the sustainable livelihood and the socio-ecological frameworks to analyse the livelihood patterns and resilience to extreme flooding. Results from a survey of 623 households in five villages, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and review of literature, indicate that access to natural capital was generally high, but low for financial, physical, human and social capital. Households mainly relied on farm-based livelihood activities, some non-farm activities, limited rural trade and public transfers. In 2004 and 2009, extreme flooding resulted in livelihood disruptions in the study areas. The main impacts included crop damage, household displacement, destruction of household property, livestock drowning and mud-trapping, the destruction of public infrastructure and disruption of services. The main household coping strategies were labour switching to other livelihood activities, temporary relocation to less affected areas, use of canoes for early harvesting or evacuation and government assistance, particularly for the most vulnerable households. Household adaptive strategies included livelihood diversification, long-term mobility and training in non-agricultural skills. The study concludes that household capacity to adapt to extreme flooding in the study villages largely depends on access to natural capital. This is threatened by population growth, land use changes, policy shifts, upstream developments, global economic changes and flood variations due to climate variability and change.

Shoreline changes and Coastal Flooding impacts: South Gujarat coast (India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parihar, S. B.

2016-12-01

South Gujarat coast (India) is experiencing increased coastal inundation and erosion caused by sea-level rise affecting the population, infrastructure, and environment. The area falls under low elevation coastal zone (LEZ) and its topography of the area is also making coast highly susceptible to flooding, especially at high tides and during the rainy season. As part of studies on shoreline changes field trip carried on the coastal taluka's of South Gujarat coast i.e. Surat, Navsari and Valsad shows various temporal changes is taking place at coastal belt. There are ample of studies on coastal dynamics and impacts. The study focus on spatial temporal analysis shows the vulnerable zones covering various physical elements at risk. These coastal areas are attractive in nature for all kind of economic development and growth because of availability of the water & fertile land for house hold use, fishing and transportation. On the contrary, South Gujarat coast being tectonically active; makes this region high vulnerable for any kind of infrastructure development. The region had also witnessed loss of life and property, disruptions to transport & power and incidences of epidemics during the floods of 2006 in Surat. Coastal flooding would, under these scenarios, threaten region that are home of 370,000 approx (Census, 2011) people in seven coastal taluka's of Surat, Navsari and Valsad district. Among the people residing in the region, the most vulnerable communities are fishermen, farmer and industrial labours. The wide range of infrastructure such as roads, hospitals, schools, power plants, industries and port will also be at risk. Shoreline changes are inevitably changing the characteristics of south Gujarat coast; practices and policies should be put in place to mitigate the potentially adverse impacts on environment and human settlements. Key words: sea level rise, LEZ, vulnerable, erosion, inundation, spatial temporal analysis, landuse changes.

Simulating the effect of flow path roughness to examine how green infrastructure restores urban runoff timing and magnitude

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2015-01-01

Impervious land cover was the choice for many urban development projects in order to accelerate runoff and reduce the depth and duration of local flooding, however this led to increases in downstream runoff characterized by large, flashy peak flows. Urban ecosystem restoration now involves slowing down urban runoff to restore local hydrology with green infrastructure,...

A review of atmospheric and land surface processes with emphasis on flood generation in the Southern Himalayan rivers.

PubMed

Dimri, A P; Thayyen, R J; Kibler, K; Stanton, A; Jain, S K; Tullos, D; Singh, V P

2016-06-15

Floods in the southern rim of the Indian Himalayas are a major cause of loss of life, property, crops, infrastructure, etc. They have long term socio-economic impacts on the habitat living along/across the Himalayas. In the recent decade extreme precipitation events have led to numerous flash floods in and around the Himalayan region. Sporadic case-based studies have tried to explain the mechanisms causing the floods. However, in some of the cases, the causative mechanisms have been elusive. Various types of flood events have been debated at different spatial and temporal scales. The present study provides an overview of mechanisms that lead to floods in and around the southern rim of the Indian Himalayas. Atmospheric processes, landuse interaction, and glacier-related outbreaks are considered in the overview. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

People at risk - nexus critical infrastructure and society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiser, Micha; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

2016-04-01

Strategic infrastructure networks include the highly complex and interconnected systems that are so vital to a city or state that any sudden disruption can result in debilitating impacts on human life, the economy and the society as a whole. Recently, various studies have applied complex network-based models to study the performance and vulnerability of infrastructure systems under various types of attacks and hazards - a major part of them is, particularly after the 9/11 incident, related to terrorism attacks. Here, vulnerability is generally defined as the performance drop of an infrastructure system under a given disruptive event. The performance can be measured by different metrics, which correspond to various levels of resilience. In this paper, we will address vulnerability and exposure of critical infrastructure in the Eastern Alps. The Federal State Tyrol is an international transport route and an essential component of the north-south transport connectivity in Europe. Any interruption of the transport flow leads to incommensurable consequences in terms of indirect losses, since the system does not feature redundant elements at comparable economic efficiency. Natural hazard processes such as floods, debris flows, rock falls and avalanches, endanger this infrastructure line, such as large flood events in 2005 or 2012, rock falls 2014, which had strong impacts to the critical infrastructure, such as disruption of the railway lines (in 2005 and 2012), highways and motorways (in 2014). The aim of this paper is to present how critical infrastructures as well as communities and societies are vulnerable and can be resilient against natural hazard risks and the relative cascading effects to different compartments (industrial, infrastructural, societal, institutional, cultural, etc.), which is the dominant by the type of hazard (avalanches, torrential flooding, debris flow, rock falls). Specific themes will be addressed in various case studies to allow cross-learning and cross-comparison of, for example rural and urban areas, and different scales. Correspondingly, scale-specific resilience indicators and metrics will be developed to tailor methods to specific needs according to the scale of assessment (micro/local and macro/regional) and to the type of infrastructure. The traditional indicators normally used in structural analysis are not sufficient to understand how events happening on the networks can have cascading consequences. Moreover, effects have multidimensional (technical, economic, organizational and human), multiscale (micro and macro) and temporal characteristics (short- to long-term incidence). These considerations will guide to different activities: 1) computation of classic structural analysis indicators on the case studies in order to obtain an identity of the transport infrastructure and; 2) development of a set of new measures of resilience. To mitigate natural hazard risk a large amount of protection measures of different typology have been constructed following inhomogeneous reliability standards. The focus of this case study will be on resilience issues and decision making in the context of a large scale sectorial approach focused on transport infrastructure network.

Recent advances in near-surface moisture monitoring using commercial microwave links in Tel-Aviv University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, Pinhas; David, Noam; Messer, Hagit

2015-04-01

The propagation of electromagnetic radiation in the lower atmosphere, at centimeter wavelengths, is impaired by atmospheric conditions. Absorption and scattering of the radiation, at frequencies of tens of GHz, are directly related to the atmospheric phenomena, primarily precipitation, oxygen, mist, fog and water vapor. As was recently shown, wireless communication networks supply high resolution precipitation measurements at ground level while often being situated in flood prone areas, covering large parts of these hazardous regions. On the other hand, at present, there are no satisfactory real time flash flood warning facilities found to cope well with this phenomenon. I will exemplify the flash flood warning potential of the commercial wireless communication system for two different semi-arid region cases when floods occurred in the Judean desert and in the northern Negev in Israel. In addition, I will review our recent improvements in monitoring rainfall as well as other-than-rain phenomena like, atmospheric moisture. Special focus on fog monitoring potential will be highlighted. References: N. David, O. Sendik, H. Messer and P. Alpert, "Cellular network infrastructure- the future of fog monitoring?", BAMS, (in press, 2015). N. David, P. Alpert and H. Messer, "The potential of cellular network infrastructures for sudden rainfall monitoring in dry climate regions", Atmospheric Research, 131, 13-21, 2013.

Estimating design flood and HEC-RAS modelling approach for flood analysis in Bojonegoro city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prastica, R. M. S.; Maitri, C.; Hermawan, A.; Nugroho, P. C.; Sutjiningsih, D.; Anggraheni, E.

2018-03-01

Bojonegoro faces flood every year with less advanced prevention development. Bojonegoro city development could not peak because the flood results material losses. It affects every sectors in Bojonegoro: education, politics, economy, social, and infrastructure development. This research aims to analyse and to ensure that river capacity has high probability to be the main factor of flood in Bojonegoro. Flood discharge analysis uses Nakayasu synthetic unit hydrograph for period of 5 years, 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, and 100 years. They would be compared to the water maximum capacity that could be loaded by downstream part of Bengawan Solo River in Bojonegoro. According to analysis result, Bengawan Solo River in Bojonegoro could not able to load flood discharges. Another method used is HEC-RAS analysis. The conclusion that shown by HEC-RAS analysis has the same view. It could be observed that flood water loading is more than full bank capacity elevation in the river. To conclude, the main factor that should be noticed by government to solve flood problem is river capacity.

Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

2016-04-01

Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

Multifunctional benefits of SuDS: techno-economic evaluation of decentralised solutions for urban water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mijic, Ana; Ossa-Moreno, Juan; Smith, Karl M.

2016-04-01

The increased frequency of extreme weather events associated with climate change poses a significant threat to the integrity and function of critical urban infrastructure - rail, road, telecommunications, power and water supply/sewerage networks. A key threat within the United Kingdom (UK) is the increased risk of pluvial flooding; the conventional approach of channeling runoff to an outfall has proven to be unsustainable during severe storm events. Green infrastructure, in the form of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS), has been proposed as a means of minimising the risk of pluvial flooding. However, despite their technical performance, SuDS uptake in the UK has not reached its full capacity yet, mostly due to reasons that go beyong the engineering realm. This work investigated the strategic role of SuDS retrofit in managing environmental risks to urban infrastructure in London at a catchment level, through an economic appraisal of multifunctional benefits. It was found that by including the multifunctional benefits of SuDS, the economic feasibility of the project improves considerably. The case study has also shown a mechanism towards achieving wider-scale SuDS retrofit, whereby the investments are split amongst multiple stakeholder groups by highlighting the additional benefits each group derives. Groups include water utilities and their users, local government and critical infrastructure owners. Finally, limitations to the existing cost-benefit methdology in the UK were identified, and recommendations made regarding incentives and governmental regulations to enhance the uptake of SuDS in London. The proposed methodology provides compelling and robust, cost-benefit based evidence of SUDS' effectiveness within the flood risk management planning framework, but also with regard to the additional benefits of Nature Based Solutions in urban environments.

Extreme storms, sea level rise, and coastal change: implications for infrastructure reliability in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anarde, K.; Kameshwar, S.; Irza, N.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

2016-12-01

Predicting coastal infrastructure reliability during hurricane events is important for risk-based design and disaster planning, such as delineating viable emergency response routes. Previous research has focused on either infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding or the impact of changing sea level and landforms on surge dynamics. Here we investigate the combined impact of sea level, morphology, and coastal flooding on the reliability of highway bridges - the only access points between barrier islands and mainland communities - during future extreme storms. We forward model coastal flooding for static projections of geomorphic change using ADCIRC+SWAN. First-order parameters that are adjusted include sea level and elevation. These are varied for each storm simulation to evaluate relative impact on the reliability of bridges surrounding Freeport, TX. Simulated storms include both synthetic and historical events, which are classified by intensity using the storm's integrated kinetic energy, a metric for surge generation potential. Reliability is estimated through probability of failure - given wave and surge loads - and time inundated. Findings include that: 1) bridge reliability scales inversely with surge height, and 2) sea level rise reduces bridge reliability due to a monotonic increase in surge height. The impact of a shifting landscape on bridge reliability is more complex: barrier island rollback can increase or decrease inundation times for storms of different intensity due to changes in wind-setup and back-barrier bay interactions. Initial storm surge readily inundates the coastal landscape during large intensity storms, however the draining of inland bays following storm passage is significantly impeded by the barrier. From a coastal engineering standpoint, we determine that to protect critical infrastructure, efforts now implemented that nourish low-lying barriers may be enhanced by also armoring back-bay coastlines and elevating bridge approach ramps.

Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David; Hall, Alex

2018-05-01

Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California's rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016-2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California's `Great Flood of 1862'. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California's existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure.

Beyond the Floodplain: Drivers of Flood Risk in Coastal Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; McPhearson, T.; Rosi, E. J.

2017-12-01

While the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Katrina increased awareness of coastal flood risk, conventional approaches to flood risk assessment do not adequately represent the drivers of flood risk in the unique, highly engineered landscape of dense cities. We review the recent (1996-2016) history of flooding events and current regional climate change projection for 4 diverse coastal cities in the United States: San Juan, Miami, Baltimore and New York. Our review suggests that while all 4 of these cities face increased risk from direct coastal flooding with climate change, pluvial flooding will be an additional, important driver of risk that is currently poorly quantified. Unlike other types of flooding, pluvial flood risk is not limited to a contiguous riverine or coastal floodplain, but is instead driven by interactions between spatially variable geophysical drivers (intense rainfall, shallow groundwater, and influent tidal water), social drivers (patterns of land use) and technical drivers (urban stormwater and coastal infrastructure). We discuss approaches for quantitative assessment of pluvial flood risk, the challenges presented by the lack of data on geophysical flooding drivers in dense cities, and opportunities for integrated research to provide the scientific information needed by practitioners.

Assessing impacts of dike construction on the flood dynamics of the Mekong Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Dung Duc; van Halsema, Gerardo; Hellegers, Petra J. G. J.; Phi Hoang, Long; Quang Tran, Tho; Kummu, Matti; Ludwig, Fulco

2018-03-01

Recent flood dynamics of the Mekong Delta have raised concerns about an increased flood risk downstream in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Accelerated high dike building on the floodplains of the upper delta to allow triple cropping of rice has been linked to higher river water levels in the downstream city of Can Tho. This paper assesses the hydraulic impacts of upstream dike construction on the flood hazard downstream in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. We combined the existing one-dimensional (1-D) Mekong Delta hydrodynamic model with a quasi-two-dimensional (2-D) approach. First we calibrated and validated the model using flood data from 2011 and 2013. We then applied the model to explore the downstream water dynamics under various scenarios of high dike construction in An Giang Province and the Long Xuyen Quadrangle. Calculations of water balances allowed us to trace the propagation and distribution of flood volumes over the delta under the different scenarios. Model results indicate that extensive construction of high dikes on the upstream floodplains has had limited effect on peak river water levels downstream in Can Tho. Instead, the model shows that the impacts of dike construction, in terms of peak river water levels, are concentrated and amplified in the upstream reaches of the delta. According to our water balance analysis, river water levels in Can Tho have remained relatively stable, as greater volumes of floodwater have been diverted away from the Long Xuyen Quadrangle than the retention volume lost due to dike construction. Our findings expand on previous work on the impacts of water control infrastructure on flood risk and floodwater regimes across the delta.

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

PubMed Central

Melvin, April M.; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E.; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S.; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Marchenko, Sergey S.

2017-01-01

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5. PMID:28028223

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation.

PubMed

Melvin, April M; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J; Marchenko, Sergey S

2017-01-10

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80-100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.

Innovative Financing for Green Infrastructure

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

provides an overview of financing strategies and highlights a community that leveraged Clean Water State Revolving Fund (CWSRF) resources for a flood mitigation project that provided multiple economic, environmental, and social benefits.

Doomed to Drown? Sediment Dynamics, Infrastructure, and the Threat of Sea Level Rise in the Bengal Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, K. G.; Overeem, I.

2017-12-01

The Bengal Delta in Bangladesh is regularly described as a "delta in peril" of catastrophic coastal flooding. In order to maintain a positive surface elevation, sediment aggradation on the delta must be equal to or greater than that of local sea level rise. Paradoxically, widespread armoring of the delta by coastal embankments meant to protect crops from tidal flooding has limited fluvial floodplain deposition, leading to rapid compaction and lowered land surface levels. This renders the floodplains of the delta susceptible to devastating flooding by sea level rise and storm surges capable of breaching the poorly maintained embankments. The government of Bangladesh is currently considering a one-size-fits-all approach to renovating the embankments under the assumption that sediment dynamics in the delta are everywhere the same. However, natural physical processes are spatially variable across the delta front and therefore the impact of dikes on sediment dispersal and morphology should reflect these variations. Direct sedimentation measurements, short-lived radionuclides, and a simplified sediment routing model are used to show that transport processes and sedimentation rates are highly variable across the lower delta. Aggradation is more than double the rate of local sea level rise in some areas, and dominant modes of transport are reflected in the patterns of sediment routing and flux across the lower deltaplain, though embankments are major controls on sediment dynamics throughout the coastal delta. This challenges the assumption that the Bengal Delta is doomed to drown; rather it signifies that effective preparation for 21st century climate change requires consideration of spatially variable physical dynamics and local feedbacks with large-scale infrastructure.

Multidisciplinary approach to evaluate flood damage for residential buildings: first results in Northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luino, Fabio

2015-04-01

Flooding is the most common natural instability process in Italy. Flood damage are the results of land-use planning policies which, starting chiefly from the late 1950s and early 1960s, did not take into account the geomorphologic-hydraulic characteristics of an area or the its historical data on past flood events. Historically, compared to other areas, riverside property has always been less valuable. Unfortunately, year after year, even areas of high recreational and environmental value were intensely urbanized despite their being exposed to the threat of flooding. As the number of residential dwellings, infrastructure and industrial buildings increased, what was originally a hazard became a risk. For each flood event, the damage depends on the specific land-use of the area and subsequently on the elements at risk in the area involved and its vulnerability, expressed as a percentage of the element that has actually been lost during the event. This is why a comprehensive knowledge of the area it is so important for conducting a detailed survey of an area's structures and infrastructure and to evaluate the degree of vulnerability. This paper presents first results in Italy of the European Project called DAMAGE, the first attempt by the civil protection agencies of several European Union member states to devise a common methodology for the assessment of damage caused by natural or anthropic disasters. The main objective was to create an initial tool for practical and immediate application by civil protection agencies and local governments, to assess damage in a multidimensional perspective that takes into account infrastructure, the economy, the environment and social problems. Within the framework of a broad-based project for the evaluation and collection of reports on damage caused by floods, the CNR-IRPI of Turin and Regione Lombardia have directed attention to the town of Cittiglio (province of Varese), which was struck by severe flash flood in May 2002. One of the aims was to provide public administrations a management tool to help them use damage information. For this purpose a GIS-based model was created that can simulate flood events and evaluate potential direct economic loss due to a catastrophe based on thorough land knowledge coupled with the description of various physical elements of the natural event. The multidisciplinary method can be summarized in the following steps: 1) Event description: definition of flood parameters (flooded area and water level). This definition is possible because of real-time measurements or event simulation through a hydraulic model; 2) Identifying the affected assets in the flooded area; 3) Evaluation of the degree of damage to the exposed elements as a function of event magnitude identified from the measurement of floodwater depths of an event; 4) Attribution of an economic value to exposed assets. Quantification of economic loss by multiplying the economic value of damaged assets and the degree of damage. The methodology can be used to estimate the damage from the impact of floodwater on exposed elements (direct damage) and to quantify the resulting economic loss (tangible damage).

Evacuation planning for plausible worst case inundation scenarios in Honolulu, Hawaii.

PubMed

Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

2015-01-01

Honolulu is susceptible to coastal flooding hazards. Like other coastal cities, Honolulu&s long-term economic viability and sustainability depends on how well it can adapt to changes in the natural and built environment. While there is a disagreement over the magnitude and extent of localized impacts associated with climate change, it is widely accepted that by 2100 there will be at least a meter in sea level rise (SLR) and an increase in extreme weather events. Increased exposure and vulnerabilities associated with urbanization and location of human activities in coastal areas warrants serious consideration by planners and policy makers. This article has three objectives. First, flooding due to the combined effects of SLR and episodic hydro-meteorological and geophysical events in Honolulu are investigated and the risks to the community are quantified. Second, the risks and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure and the surface transportation system are described. Third, using the travel demand software, travel distances and travel times for evacuation from inundated areas are modeled. Data from three inundation models were used. The first model simulated storm surge from a category 4 hurricane similar to Hurricane Iniki which devastated the island of Kauai in 1992. The second model estimates inundation based on five tsunamis that struck Hawaii. A 1-m increase in sea level was included in both the hurricane storm surge and tsunami flooding models. The third model used in this article generated a 500-year flood event due to riverine flooding. Using a uniform grid cell structure, the three inundation maps were used to assess the worst case flooding scenario. Based on the flood depths, the ruling hazard (hurricane, tsunami, or riverine flooding) for each grid cell was determined. The hazard layer was analyzed with socioeconomic data layers to determine the impact on vulnerable populations, economic activity, and critical infrastructure. The analysis focused both on evacuation needs and the critical elements of the infrastructure system that are needed to ensure effective response and recovery in the advent of flooding. This study shows that the coastal flooding will seriously affect the economy and employment. Extreme flooding events could affect 38 percent of the freeways, 44 percent of the highways, 69 percent of the arterial roads, and 40 percent of the local streets in the area examined. Approximately 80 percent of the economy and 76 percent of the total employment in the urban core of Honolulu is exposed to flooding. Evacuation modeling, shelter accessibility, and travel time to shelter analyses revealed that there is a significant shortage in sheltering options, as well as increases in travel times and distances as inundation depth increases. The findings are useful for evacuation and shelter planning for extreme coastal events, as well as for climate change adaptation planning in Honolulu. Recommendations for emergency responders as well as those interested in the integration of long-term SLR and low probability, high consequence coastal hazards are included. The study shows how to integrate travel demand modeling across multiple hazards and threats related to evacuating, sheltering, and disaster risk reduction.

Study and proposals related to extensive flooding in the Siret River area during the summer of 2008 in Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefanescu, Victor; Stefan, Sabina; Irimescu, Anisoara

2010-05-01

Extensive flooding due to overflowing of the Siret River and associated runoff in smaller rivers in northeastern Romania at the end of July 2008 are discussed, taking into account the meteorological and hydrological contexts. The flooding events in Romania claimed human deaths and population displacement, large-scale destruction of housing and infrastructure. Although the Siret river is quite shallow, and several dams and reservoirs restrict and control its flow, the area along the river remains prone to periodic flooding, mainly in spring and summer. Several observations are made on the viability of settlements close to Siret riverbed in Romania, related to the repeatability of situations such as that during the summer of 2008. Generally, the relative shallowness of the river Siret may cause flash floods, when its level increases rapidly due to abundant precipitation. As such, the horizontal extent of the flooding due to runoff is a factor seemingly more important than the short-lived increases in depth, combined with the speed of the flow. As a direct result of the flooding, crops and buildings were damaged. The probability that similar meteorological contexts can cause flooding with the extent of that in 2008 will be discussed. Also, some possible means to improve the reaction of authorities and delivery of relief by them to the affected population will be proposed. Regarding the meteorological context, a presentation of the cyclonic system that has brought heavy and/or continuous rain in northern and northeastern Romania will be made. As proposal for improving the delivery of resources toward the affected area and population, a software system designed to shorten the process of conveying relevant information to decisional factors, and to increase the speed of information between interesed parties will be discussed. The possible outcome of this specific case study will be the improvement of the decisional flux required in times of natural disasters, flooding included.

Climate Adaptation and Storms & Flooding

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA works with drinking water, wastewater and stormwater utilities, as well as local, state and tribal governments to help critical water infrastructure facilities prepare for and recover from the impacts of climate change.

Stormwater management and ecosystem services: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudencio, Liana; Null, Sarah E.

2018-03-01

Researchers and water managers have turned to green stormwater infrastructure, such as bioswales, retention basins, wetlands, rain gardens, and urban green spaces to reduce flooding, augment surface water supplies, recharge groundwater, and improve water quality. It is increasingly clear that green stormwater infrastructure not only controls stormwater volume and timing, but also promotes ecosystem services, which are the benefits that ecosystems provide to humans. Yet there has been little synthesis focused on understanding how green stormwater management affects ecosystem services. The objectives of this paper are to review and synthesize published literature on ecosystem services and green stormwater infrastructure and identify gaps in research and understanding, establishing a foundation for research at the intersection of ecosystems services and green stormwater management. We reviewed 170 publications on stormwater management and ecosystem services, and summarized the state-of-the-science categorized by the four types of ecosystem services. Major findings show that: (1) most research was conducted at the parcel-scale and should expand to larger scales to more closely understand green stormwater infrastructure impacts, (2) nearly a third of papers developed frameworks for implementing green stormwater infrastructure and highlighted barriers, (3) papers discussed ecosystem services, but less than 40% quantified ecosystem services, (4) no geographic trends emerged, indicating interest in applying green stormwater infrastructure across different contexts, (5) studies increasingly integrate engineering, physical science, and social science approaches for holistic understanding, and (6) standardizing green stormwater infrastructure terminology would provide a more cohesive field of study than the diverse and often redundant terminology currently in use. We recommend that future research provide metrics and quantify ecosystem services, integrate disciplines to measure ecosystem services from green stormwater infrastructure, and better incorporate stormwater management into environmental policy. Our conclusions outline promising future research directions at the intersection of stormwater management and ecosystem services.

City of Hoboken Energy Surety Analysis: Preliminary Design Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stamp, Jason Edwin; Baca, Michael J.; Munoz-Ramos, Karina

2014-09-01

In 2012, Hurricane Sandy devastated much of the U.S. northeast coastal areas. Among those hardest hit was the small community of Hoboken, New Jersey, located on the banks of the Hudson River across from Manhattan. This report describes a city-wide electrical infrastructure design that uses microgrids and other infrastructure to ensure the city retains functionality should such an event occur in the future. The designs ensure that up to 55 critical buildings will retain power during blackout or flooded conditions and include analysis for microgrid architectures, performance parameters, system control, renewable energy integration, and financial opportunities (while grid connected). Themore » results presented here are not binding and are subject to change based on input from the Hoboken stakeholders, the integrator selected to manage and implement the microgrid, or other subject matter experts during the detailed (final) phase of the design effort.« less

Development of a flood-induced health risk prediction model for Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Globally, many floods occur in developing or tropical regions where the impact on public health is substantial, including death and injury, drinking water, endemic disease, and so on. Although these flood impacts on public health have been investigated, integrated management of floods and flood-induced health risks is technically and institutionally limited. Specifically, while the use of climatic and hydrologic forecasts for disaster management has been highlighted, analogous predictions for forecasting the magnitude and impact of health risks are lacking, as is the infrastructure for health early warning systems, particularly in developing countries. In this study, we develop flood-induced health risk prediction model for African regions using season-ahead flood predictions with climate drivers and a variety of physical and socio-economic information, such as local hazard, exposure, resilience, and health vulnerability indicators. Skillful prediction of flood and flood-induced health risks can contribute to practical pre- and post-disaster responses in both local- and global-scales, and may eventually be integrated into multi-hazard early warning systems for informed advanced planning and management. This is especially attractive for areas with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop flood-induced health risk warning systems.

Dependence of flood risk perceptions on socioeconomic and objective risk factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.

2009-10-01

This study examines flood risk perceptions of individuals in the Netherlands using a survey of approximately 1000 homeowners. Perceptions of a range of aspects of flood risk are elicited. Various statistical models are used to estimate the influence of socioeconomic and geographical characteristics, personal experience with flooding, knowledge of flood threats, and individual risk attitudes on shaping risk belief. The study shows that in general, perceptions of flood risk are low. An analysis of the factors determining risk perceptions provides four main insights relevant for policy makers and insurers. First, differences in expected risk are consistently related to actual risk levels, since individuals in the vicinity of a main river and low-lying areas generally have elevated risk perceptions. Second, individuals in areas unprotected by dikes tend to underestimate their risk of flooding. Third, individuals with little knowledge of the causes of flood events have lower perceptions of flood risk. Fourth, there is some evidence that older and more highly educated individuals have a lower flood risk perception. The findings indicate that increasing knowledge of citizens about the causes of flooding may increase flood risk awareness. It is especially important to target individuals who live in areas unprotected by dike infrastructure, since they tend to be unaware of or ignore the high risk exposure faced.

Applications of Radarsat-1 synthetic aperture radar imagery to assess hurricane-related flooding of coastal Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kiage, L.M.; Walker, N.D.; Balasubramanian, S.; Babin, A.; Barras, J.

2005-01-01

The Louisiana coast is subjected to hurricane impacts including flooding of human settlements, river channels and coastal marshes, and salt water intrusion. Information on the extent of flooding is often required quickly for emergency relief, repairs of infrastructure, and production of flood risk maps. This study investigates the feasibility of using Radarsat-1 SAR imagery to detect flooded areas in coastal Louisiana after Hurricane Lili, October 2002. Arithmetic differencing and multi-temporal enhancement techniques were employed to detect flooding and to investigate relationships between backscatter and water level changes. Strong positive correlations (R2=0.7-0.94) were observed between water level and SAR backscatter within marsh areas proximate to Atchafalaya Bay. Although variations in elevation and vegetation type did influence and complicate the radar signature at individual sites, multi-date differences in backscatter largely reflected the patterns of flooding within large marsh areas. Preliminary analyses show that SAR imagery was not useful in mapping urban flooding in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina's landfall on 29 August 2005. ?? 2005 Taylor & Francis.

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

2009-04-01

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although some research activities have been undertaken, there are no specific methods and tools to assess flood vulnerability at the scale of the city. Indeed, by studying literature we can list some vulnerability indicators and a few Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. But generally indicators and GIS are not developed specifically at the city scale: often a regional scale is used. Analyzing vulnerability at this scale needs more accurate and formalized indicators and GIS tools. The second limit of existing GIS is temporal: even if vulnerability could be assessed and localized through GIS, such tools cannot assist city managers in their decision to efficiency recover after a severe flood event. Due to scale and temporal limits, methods and tools available to assess urban vulnerability need large improvements. Talking into account all these considerations and limits, our research is focusing on: • vulnerability indicators design; • recovery scenarios design; • GIS for city vulnerability assessment and recovery scenarios. Dealing with vulnerability indicators, the goal is to design a set of indicators of city sub systems. Sub systems are seen like assets of high value and complex and interdependent infrastructure networks (i.e. power supplies, communications, water, transport etc.). The infrastructure networks are critical for the continuity of economic activities as well as for the people's basic living needs. Their availability is also required for fast and effective recovery after flood disasters. The severity of flood damage therefore largely depends on the degree that both high value assets and critical urban infrastructure are affected, either directly or indirectly. To face the challenge of designing indicators, a functional model of the city system (and sub systems) has to be built to analyze the system response to flood solicitation. Then, a coherent and an efficient set of vulnerability of indicators could be built up. With such methods city stakeholders will be informed on how and how much their systems are vulnerable. It is a first level of information that has to be completed to become a real decision making tool. Indeed, we have seen that major floods cause almost always failures in the flood defense system. So potentially the city could face a flood event and managers recovery works. Knowing the vulnerability of the city, direct and indirect impacts, how can managers optimize recovery actions? Our research will focus first on proposing recovery scenarios based on the city system and second on vulnerability indicators to first limit damages during floods and to speed up recovery actions. At last, a GIS will be developed to assist stakeholders to take spatial measures to reduce city system weakness before a flood event and to help them to decide on how to optimize recovery actions after a flood event. Dealing with these two temporal scales will allow obtaining more flood resilient cities.

Towards improved prediction and mitigation of beach overwash: Terrestrial LiDAR observation of dynamic beach berm erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, J. E.; Gallien, T.; Shakeri Majd, M.; Sanders, B. F.

2012-12-01

Globally, over 20 million people currently reside below high tide levels and 200 million are below storm tide levels. Future climate change along with the pressures of urbanization will exacerbate flooding in low lying coastal communities. In Southern California, coastal flooding is triggered by a combination of high tides, storm surge, and waves and recent research suggests that a current 100 year flood event may be experienced on a yearly basis by 2050 due to sea level rise adding a positive offset to return levels. Currently, Southern California coastal communities mitigate the threat of beach overwash, and consequent backshore flooding, with a combination of planning and operational activities such as protective beach berm construction. Theses berms consist of temporary alongshore sand dunes constructed days or hours before an extreme tide or wave event. Hydraulic modeling in urbanized embayments has shown that coastal flooding predictions are extremely sensitive to the presence of coastal protective infrastructure, requiring parameterization of the hard infrastructure elevations at centimetric accuracy. Beach berms are an example of temporary dynamic structures which undergo severe erosion during extreme events and are typically not included in flood risk assessment. Currently, little is known about the erosion process and performance of these structures, which adds uncertainty to flood hazard delineation and flood forecasts. To develop a deeper understanding of beach berm erosion dynamics, three trapezoidal shaped berms, approximately 35 m long and 1.5 m high, were constructed and failure during rising tide conditions was observed using terrestrial laser scanning. Concurrently, real-time kinematic GPS, high-definition time lapse photography, a local tide gauge and wave climate data were collected. The result is a rich and unique observational dataset capturing berm erosion dynamics. This poster highlights the data collected and presents methods for processing and leveraging multi-sensor field observation data. The data obtained from this study will be used to support the development and validation of a numerical beach berm overtopping and overwash model that will allow for improved predictions of coastal flood damage during winter storms and large swells.

Impacts of adaptive flood management strategies on the Socio-Hydrological system in Ganges - Brahmaputra river basin, Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, K.; Jeong, H.; Sangwan, N.; Yu, D. J.

2017-12-01

Human societies have tried to prevent floods by building robust infrastructure such as levees or dams. However, some scholars raise a doubt to this approach because of a lack of adaptiveness to environmental and societal changes in a long-term. Thus, a growing number of studies now suggest adopting new strategies in flood management to reinforce an adapt capacity to the long-term flood risk. This study addresses this issue by developing a conceptual mathematical model exploring how flood management strategies effect to the dynamics human-flood interaction, ultimately the flood resilience in a long-term. Especially, our model is motivated by the community-based flood protection system in southwest coastal area in Bangladesh. We developed several conceptual flood management strategies and investigated the interplay between those strategies and community's capacity to cope with floods. We additionally analyzed how external disturbances (sea level rise, water tide level change, and outside economic development) alter the adaptive capacity to flood risks. The results of this study reveal that the conventional flood management has potential vulnerabilities as external disturbances increase. Our results also highlight the needs of the adaptive strategy as a new paradigm in flood management which is able to feedback to the social and hydrological conditions. These findings provide insights on the resilience-based, adaptive strategies which can build flood resilience under global change.

Development of Integrated Flood Analysis System for Improving Flood Mitigation Capabilities in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-suk

2016-04-01

Recently, the needs of people are growing for a more safety life and secure homeland from unexpected natural disasters. Flood damages have been recorded every year and those damages are greater than the annual average of 2 trillion won since 2000 in Korea. It has been increased in casualties and property damages due to flooding caused by hydrometeorlogical extremes according to climate change. Although the importance of flooding situation is emerging rapidly, studies related to development of integrated management system for reducing floods are insufficient in Korea. In addition, it is difficult to effectively reduce floods without developing integrated operation system taking into account of sewage pipe network configuration with the river level. Since the floods result in increasing damages to infrastructure, as well as life and property, structural and non-structural measures should be urgently established in order to effectively reduce the flood. Therefore, in this study, we developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting for supporting synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information in Korea. Keywords: Flooding, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ011686022015)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea

Increased Flooding Risk - Accelerating Threat and Stakeholder Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, L. P.; Ezer, T.; De Young, R.; McShane, M. K.; McFarlane, B.

2012-12-01

Coastal cities have been adapting to coastal flooding for centuries. Now, with increased population along the coast combined with increased flooding because of sea level rise (SLR) the vulnerability of coastal cities has increased significantly. In this paper we will discuss the physical threat of accelerating sea level rise and the response of stakeholders. Sallenger et al (2012) stated "... we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modeled fingerprint of dynamic SLR." In the Northeast Hotspot (NEH) dynamic processes such as Gulf Stream transport can cause local sea level differences (Ezer, 2001). Sweet et al (2009) attributed the anomalously high sea level along the mid-Atlantic in 2009 to dynamic SLR. A recent paper (Ezer and Corlett, 2012 submitted), focused on Chesapeake Bay, confirms Sallenger et al. These accelerations suggest that the higher estimates of SLR in IPCC reports may be better estimates. The combination of local sea level rise and acceleration, even with average coastal storm surge, results in increased vulnerability and economic losses. We will use three examples of stakeholder response to this threat: shipbuilding, cities and insurance. Nuclear aircraft carrier drydock in Newport News, VA - The only drydock where nuclear powered aircraft carriers are built flooded during Hurricane Isabel. A study showed that with a 1 meter sea level rise and no change in storm severity they would have 'Major Flooding' every 4 months rather than every 27 years. Cities infrastructure - In a recent report on sea level rise, the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (representing nearly 2m people) found that "sea level rise will be a major issue", "there is not yet official state or federal guidance for addressing sea level rise", "…the "…U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has developed guidance…" for their projects, and "…subsidence …. is not well-documented". Studies sponsored by the City of Norfolk for example suggest massive tidal barriers. Flood insurance - Flood insurance is available only from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), not from private insurers. NFIP has a current deficit of about 18B, which is estimated to increase by about 2B annually. The rates are subsidized and do not reflect the true risk of coastal flooding and do not incorporate the likelihood of future sea-level rise. In effect, the subsidy promotes increased building on the coast, leading to increased deficits in the tax-payer financed program. Risk-based flood insurance pricing would lead to less coastal development, therefore decreasing the tax base of the community. Stakeholder needs - Planning for increased flooding due to sea level rise extends 50 to 100 years given the lifetime of infrastructure. Planners need guidance and error estimates. To make adequate predictions for users we must understand the various components of sea level rise including subsidence, global sea level rise and regional and local dynamic sea level rise. Predictions of regional sea level rise will be presented in the context of existing infrastructure such as NASA research facilities and the city of Norfolk, Virginia.

Building Exposure Maps Of Urban Infrastructure And Crop Fields In The Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, E.; Weichselbaum, J.; Gangkofner, U.; Miltzer, J.; Wali, A.

2013-12-01

In the frame of the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) initiative for the Mekong river basin World Bank is collaborating with the Mekong River Commission and governmental organizations in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam to build national and regional capacities for managing the risks associated with natural disasters, such as floods, flash floods and droughts. Within ‘eoworld', a joint initiative set up by ESA and World Bank to foster the use of Earth Observation (EO) for sustainable development work, a comprehensive database of elements at risk in the Lower Mekong river basin has been established by GeoVille, including urban infrastructure and crops (primarily rice paddies). In the long term, this exposure information shall be fed into an open-source multi- hazard modeling tool for risk assessment along the Mekong River, which then shall be used by national stakeholders as well as insurance and financial institutions for planning, disaster preparedness and emergency management. Earth Observation techniques can provide objective, synoptic and repetitive observations of elements at risk including buildings, infrastructure and crops. Through the fusion of satellite-based with in-situ data from field surveys and local knowledge (e.g. on building materials) features at risk can be characterised and mapped with high accuracy. Earth Observation data utilised comprise bi-weekly Envisat ASAR imagery programmed for a period of 9 months in 2011 to map the development of the rice cultivation area, identify predominant cropping systems (wet-season vs. dry season cultivation), crop cycles (single /double / triple crop per year), date of emergence/harvest and the distinction between rice planted under intensive (SRI) vs. regular rice cultivation techniques. Very High Resolution (VHR) optical data from SPOT, KOMPSAT and QuickBird were used for mapping of buildings and infrastructure, such as building footprints, residential / commercial areas, industrial buildings, main infrastructure, and other public assets. A key input to this work was data collected by the project team in the field with the purpose of scoping information about buildings including material, height (number of stories), construction technique, and floor area. A high resolution satellite-based Digital Elevation Model was additionally generated to provide surface elevations of vegetation and man-made objects with a vertical accuracy of 10 m. By using this methodology thousands of buildings and infrastructure features were mapped, clearly indicating the location and characteristics of the assets. Exposure maps were complemented with the analysis of historical flood and drought events using ERS and Envisat ASAR radar data for historical flood mapping alongside with vegetation index data from SPOT-VEGETATION and NOAA-AVHRR, concerning drought events.

Climatology, hydrology, and simulation of an emergency outlet, Devils Lake basin, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiche, Gregg J.; Vecchia, A.V.; Osborne, Leon; Wood, Carrie M.; Fay, James T.

2000-01-01

Devils Lake is a natural lake in northeastern North Dakota that is the terminus of a nearly 4,000-square-mile subbasin in the Red River of the North Basin. The lake has not reached its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (a tributary of the Red River of the North) in recorded history. However, geologic evidence indicates a spill occurred sometime within the last 1,800 years. From 1993 to 1999, Devils Lake rose 24.5 feet and, at the present (August 2000), is about 13 feet below the natural spill elevation. The recent lake-level rise has caused flood damages exceeding $300 million and triggered development of future flood-control options to prevent further infrastructure damage and reduce the risk of a potentially catastrophic uncontrolled spill. Construction of an emergency outlet from the west end of Devils Lake to the Sheyenne River is one flood-control option being considered. This report describes the climatologic and hydrologic causes of the recent lake level rise, provides information on the potential for continued lake-level rises during the next 15 years, and describes the potential effectiveness of an emergency outlet in reducing future lake levels and in reducing the risk of an uncontrolled spill. The potential effects of an outlet on downstream water quantity and quality in the upper Sheyenne River also are described.

Quantification of physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure in Alaska and benefits of global greenhouse gas mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melvin, A. M.; Larsen, P.; Boehlert, B.; Martinich, J.; Neumann, J.; Chinowsky, P.; Schweikert, A.; Strzepek, K.

2015-12-01

Climate change poses many risks and challenges for the Arctic and sub-Arctic, including threats to infrastructure. The safety and stability of infrastructure in this region can be impacted by many factors including increased thawing of permafrost soils, reduced coastline protection due to declining arctic sea ice, and changes in inland flooding. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is coordinating an effort to quantify physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure across the state of Alaska and estimate how global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation may avoid or reduce these impacts. This research builds on the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project developed for the contiguous U.S., which is described in an EPA report released in June 2015. We are using a multi-model analysis focused primarily on the impacts of changing permafrost, coastal erosion, and inland flooding on a range of infrastructure types, including transportation (e.g. roads, airports), buildings and harbors, energy sources and transmission, sewer and water systems, and others. This analysis considers multiple global GHG emission scenarios ranging from a business as usual future to significant global action. These scenarios drive climate projections through 2100 spanning a range of outcomes to capture variability amongst climate models. Projections are being combined with a recently developed public infrastructure database and integrated into a version of the Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS) we are modifying for use in the Arctic and sub-Arctic region. The IPSS tool allows for consideration of both adaptation and reactive responses to climate change. Results of this work will address a gap in our understanding of climate change impacts in Alaska, provide estimates of the physical and economic damages we may expect with and without global GHG mitigation, and produce important insights about infrastructure vulnerabilities in response to warming at northern latitudes.

Impact of floods induced by extreme precipitation events on public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavroulis, Spyridon; Mavrouli, Maria; Lekkas, Efthymios; Tsakris, Athanassios

2017-04-01

Hydrometeorological disasters comprise the most reported type of natural disaster, and floods account for the majority of disasters in this category in both developed and developing countries. Flooding can lead to extensive morbidity and mortality and pose multiple risks to public health throughout the world. This study involved an extensive and systematic literature review of 124 research publications related to public health impact of 98 floods that occurred globally (Oceania 4, Africa 9, America 22, Europe 24, Asia 39) from 1942 to 2014. The inclusion criteria were literature type comprising journal articles and official reports, natural disaster type including floods induced after extreme precipitation events (accumulation of rainwater in poorly-drained environments, riverine and flash floods), population type including humans, and outcome measure characterized by infectious diseases (ID) incidence increase. The potential post-flood ID are classified into 13 groups including rodent-borne (reported in 38 of the total 98 events, 38.78%), water-borne (33, 33.67%), vector-borne (25, 25.51%), respiratory (19, 19.39%), fecal-oral (14, 14.29%), skin (9, 9.18%), blood-borne (4, 4.08%), eye (3, 3.06%), soil-related (3, 3.06%), ear (2, 2.04%), fungal (1, 1.02%) and wound-borne (1, 1.02%) ID. Based on available age and genre data, it is concluded that the most vulnerable population groups are predominantly young children (age ≤ 5 years) and male. The most fatal post-flood ID are leptospirosis and diarrhea followed by respiratory tract infections. The detected risk factors include (1) poor economic status and living in flood prone areas, (2) destruction of infrastructures, disruption of public utilities and interruption of basic public health services such as vector control programs, (3) direct physical exposure to sewage-polluted flood water, (4) lack of adequate potable water and water-supply from contaminated ponds and tube wells along with lack of distribution of water purification tablets, (5) aggravation of environmental conditions comprising rapid cooling of the environment and heightened humidity, (6) population displacement resulting in densely populated and overcrowded regions, (7) unfavorable living conditions in emergency shelters (8) improper and inadequate sanitation or no access to clean water and sanitation, (9) proliferation and abrupt increase of vector and rodent populations after flooding, (10) contamination of water, damp soil, mud or vegetation caused by rodent urine, dead animals and overflow of latrines. In conclusion, various ID emerge after the flood onset, and outbreaks may result due to the combined effect of several aggravating socio-economic factors and unfavorable environmental conditions. Because of the increased potential for outbreaks after flooding disasters, enhanced public health services and surveillance systems are necessary for the early detection of emerging diseases and outbreaks, and the targeted intervention for disease control.

Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science Inc. (CUAHSI) Science Plan: A Community-based Infrastructure Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, J. L.; Dressler, K.; Hooper, R. P.

2005-12-01

The river basin is a fundamental unit of the landscape and water in that defined landscape plays a central role in shaping the land surface, in dissolving minerals, in transporting chemicals, and in determining species distribution. Therefore, the river basin is a natural observatory for examining hydrologic phenomena and the complex interaction of physical, chemical, and biological processes that control them. CUAHSI, incorporated in 2001, is a community-based research infrastructure initiative formed to mobilize the hydrologic community through addressing key science questions and leveraging nationwide hydrologic resources from its member institutions and collaborative partners. Through an iterative community-based process, it has been previously proposed to develop a network of hydrologic infrastructure that organizes around scales on the order of 10,000 km2 to examine critical interfaces such as the land-surface, atmosphere, and human impact. Data collection will characterize the stores, fluxes, physical pathways, and residence time distributions of water, sediment, nutrients, and contaminants coherently at nested scales. These fundamental properties can be used by a wide range of scientific disciplines to address environmental questions. This more complete characterization will enable new linkages to be identified and hypotheses to be tested more incisively. With such a research platform, hydrologic science can advance beyond measuring streamflow or precipitation input to understanding how the river basin functions in both its internal processes and in responding to environmental stressors. That predictive understanding is needed to make informed decisions as development and even natural pressures stress existing water supplies and competing demands for water require non-traditional solutions that take into consideration economic, environmental, and social factors. Advanced hydrologic infrastructure will enable research for a broad range of multidisciplinary science questions. The CUAHSI science agenda has evolved through community input and research into several unifying theme areas, or categories. Three example categories are: forcing, internal processing, and evolution. Within each category, coherent (integrated in space and time) physical, chemical and biological data are needed to answer specific science questions. For example, in the case of "forcing": How do patterns in rainfall influence predictability of floods and droughts? Floods and droughts have long been considered random events. However, we now know that there are decadal patterns in rainfall and that rainfall recycles within the basin thereby intensifying floods and droughts. How does the internal state of the system combine with external forcing to determine the occurrence of hydrologic extremes?

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2017-07-01

The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Next Generation Mine Countermeasures for the Very Shallow Water Zone in Support of Amphibious Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

responsible for self -organizing an appropriate network infrastructure with multi-hop connection between sensor nodes. The network is self - healing ...a self -destruct mechanism that will flood the casing with water in the event that the mine is separated from its mooring. Provided that this does...mechanically severed from its mooring cable, would then initiate its self -destruct sequence whereby the mine is flooded. Then, depending upon the type of

Wing Infrastructure Development Outlook: Programmatic Environmental Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-07-01

supplied by TXU Electric & Gas by two transmission lines. One transmission line feeds the eastern base area and the second line feeds the western base...destruction, loss , or degradation of wetlands and to preserve and enhance the natural and beneficial values of wetlands. 1.6.3 Public Health EO 12088...action to reduce the risk of flood loss , minimize the impact of floods on human safety, health and welfare, and to restore and preserve the natural and

Consistency of extreme flood estimation approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used for the planning of infrastructure as well as for determining the dimensions of flood protection measures. There are several well-established methodical procedures to estimate low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve, the "true value" of an extreme flood being not observable. Anyway, a detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In this study, the following three different approaches for estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical approach (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical approach based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic approach (physically based PMF estimation). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments. The results and some intermediate variables are used for assessing potential strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as for evaluating the consistency of these methods.

Total Water Management: A Watershed Based Approach

EPA Science Inventory

In this urbanizing world, municipal water managers need to develop planning and management frameworks to meet challenges such as limiting fresh water supplies, degrading receiving waters, increasing regulatory requirements, flooding, aging infrastructure, rising utility (energy) ...

Total Water Management: A Watershed Based Approach - slides

EPA Science Inventory

ABSTRACT In this urbanizing world, municipal water managers need to develop planning and management frameworks to meet challenges such as limiting fresh water supplies, degrading receiving waters, increasing regulatory requirements, flooding, aging infrastructure, rising utility...

77 FR 50760 - Notice and request for comments

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-22

... rehabilitation to Class II and Class III railroad infrastructure damaged by hurricanes, floods, and natural... issued by the President ( http://www.fema.gov/news/disasters.fema#sev1 ). Class II and Class III railroad...

Floods and droughts: friends or foes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, Christel

2017-04-01

Water hazards are some of the biggest threats to lives and livelihoods globally, causing serious damages to society and infrastructure. But floods and droughts are an essential part of the hydrological regime that ensures fundamental ecosystem functions, providing natural ways to bring in nutrients, flush out pollutants and enabling soils, rivers and lakes natural biodiversity to thrive. Traditionally, floods and droughts are too often considered separately, with scientific advance in process understanding, modelling, statistical characterisation and impact assessment are often done independently, possibly delaying the development of innovative methods that could be applied to both. This talk will review some of the key characteristics of floods and droughts, highlighting differences and commonalties, losses and benefits, with the aim of identifying future key research challenges faced by both current and next generation of hydrologists.

Benchmarking an operational procedure for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Salamon, Peter; Kalas, Milan; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc

2016-04-01

The development of real-time methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is crucial to improve emergency response and mitigate flood impacts. This work describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on the flood predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). The daily forecasts produced for the major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations, based on the hydro-meteorological dataset of EFAS. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in near real-time in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, affected population, infrastructures and cities. An extensive testing of the operational procedure is carried out using the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-derived flood footprints, while ground-based estimations of economic damage and affected population is compared against modelled estimates. We evaluated the skill of flood hazard and risk estimations derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations. The assessment includes a comparison of several alternative approaches to produce and present the information content, in order to meet the requests of EFAS users. The tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Flood loss assessment in Can Tho City, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Do, T. C.; Kreibich, H.

2012-04-01

Floods are recurring events in the Lower Mekong Basin resulting in loss of life and property, causing damage to agriculture and rural infrastructure, and disrupting social and economic activities. Flood management and mitigation has become a priority issue at the national and regional levels. Besides, it is expected that large areas of the Mekong delta, the Red River delta and the central coast will be flooded by sea-level rise due to climate change. Can Tho City is ranked under the five most flood-tide-influenced cities of Vietnam. It is the biggest city in the Mekong delta and it is located near the Hau river. Like other region of the Mekong delta, Can Tho suffers due to floods from upstream and flood tides from the sea. In the flood season large rural areas of the city are flooded, particularly during tidal days. Flood risk management policy includes preparative measures for living with floods and to minimise the damage caused by floods as well as to take advantage of floods for sustainable development. An intensive literature review, including administrative reports as well as expert interviews have been undertaken to gain more insight into flood characteristics, their consequences and risk mitigation. Therefore, flood damaging processes and trends have been reviewed for Can Tho City and the Mekong Basin in Vietnam. Additionally, suitable flood damage estimation methodologies have been collected as important input for flood risk analyses. On this basis it has been investigated which flood risk mitigation and management strategies promise to be effective in Can Tho City, Vietnam.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting and monitoring at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by a wide range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasting, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. Finally, emerging technologies such as crowdsourcing and social media monitoring can play a crucial role in flood disaster management and preparedness. Here, we present some recent advances of an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment. The procedure translates in near real-time the daily streamflow forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) into event-based flood hazard maps, which are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information at global scale to derive risk forecast. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To increase the reliability of our forecasts we propose the integration of model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification and correction of impact forecasts. Finally, we present the results of preliminary tests which show the potential of the proposed procedure in supporting emergency response and management.

Geospatial Tools for Prevention of Urban Floods Case Study: River of EL Maleh (city of Mohammedia - Morocco)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaabane, M. S.; Abouali, N.; Boumeaza, T.; Zahouily, M.

2017-11-01

Today, the prevention and the risk management occupy an important part of public policy activities and are considered as major components in the process of sustainable development of territories. Due to the expansion of IT processes, in particular the geomatics sciences, decision-makers are increasingly requesting for digital tools before, during and after the risks of natural disasters. Both, the geographic information system (GIS) and the remote sensing are considered as geospatial and fundamental tools which help to understand the evolution of risks, to analyze their temporality and to make the right decisions. The historic events (on 1996, 2002 and 2010) which struck the city of Mohammedia and having caused the consequent damage to vital infrastructure and private property, require a thorough and rational analyze to benefit from it and well manage the floods phenomena. This article present i) the contribution of the geospatial tools for the floods simulation of Oued of el Maleh city at various return periods. These tools allow the demarcation of flood-risk areas and so to make floods simulations in several scenarios (decadal flood, 20-year flood, 50-year flood, 100-year flood, 500-year flood & also millennial flood) and besides (ii) present a synthesis map combining the territorial stakes superposed on the flood scenarios at different periods of return.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

2016-12-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

Valuing environmental services provided by local stormwater management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brent, Daniel A.; Gangadharan, Lata; Lassiter, Allison; Leroux, Anke; Raschky, Paul A.

2017-06-01

The management of stormwater runoff via distributed green infrastructures delivers a number of environmental services that go beyond the reduction of flood risk, which has been the focus of conventional stormwater systems. Not all of these services may be equally valued by the public, however. This paper estimates households' willingness to pay (WTP) for improvements in water security, stream health, recreational and amenity values, as well as reduction in flood risk and urban heat island effect. We use data from nearly 1000 personal interviews with residential homeowners in Melbourne and Sydney, Australia. Our results suggest that the WTP for the highest levels of all environmental services is A799 per household per year. WTP is mainly driven by residents valuing improvements in local stream health, exemptions in water restrictions, the prevention of flash flooding, and decreased peak urban temperatures respectively at A297, A244, A104 and A$65 per year. We further conduct a benefit transfer analysis and find that the WTP and compensating surplus are not significantly different between the study areas. Our findings provide additional support that stormwater management via green infrastructures have large nonmarket benefits and that, under certain conditions, benefit values can be transferred to different locations.

Green stormwater infrastructure eco-planning and development on the regional scale: a case study of Shanghai Lingang New City, East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Haishun; Chen, Liang; Zhao, Bing; Zhang, Qiuzhuo; Cai, Yongli

2016-06-01

Urban underlying surface has been greatly changed with rapid urbanization, considered to be one of the major causes for the destruction of urban natural hydrological processes. This has imposed a huge challenge for stormwater management in cities. There has been a shift from gray water management to green stormwater management thinking. The green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) is regarded as an effective and cost-efficient stormwater management eco-landscape approach. China's GSI practice and the development of its theoretical framework are still in the initial stage. This paper presents an innovative framework for stormwater management, integrating green stormwater infrastructure and landscape security patterns on a regional scale based on an urban master plan. The core concept of green stormwater infrastructure eco-planning is to form an interconnected GSI network (i.e., stormwater management landscape security pattern) which consists of the location, portion, size, layout, and structure of GSI so as to efficiently safeguard natural hydrological processes. Shanghai Lingang New City, a satellite new town of Shanghai, China was selected as a case study for GSI studies. Simulation analyses of hydrological processes were carried out to identify the critical significant landscape nodes in the highpriority watersheds for stormwater management. GSI should be planned and implemented in these identified landscape nodes. The comprehensive stormwater management landscape security pattern of Shanghai Lingang New City is designed with consideration of flood control, stormwater control, runoff reduction, water quality protection, and rainwater utilization objectives which could provide guidelines for smart growth and sustainable development of this city.

Stochastic Coloured Petrinet Based Healthcare Infrastructure Interdependency Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nukavarapu, Nivedita; Durbha, Surya

2016-06-01

The Healthcare Critical Infrastructure (HCI) protects all sectors of the society from hazards such as terrorism, infectious disease outbreaks, and natural disasters. HCI plays a significant role in response and recovery across all other sectors in the event of a natural or manmade disaster. However, for its continuity of operations and service delivery HCI is dependent on other interdependent Critical Infrastructures (CI) such as Communications, Electric Supply, Emergency Services, Transportation Systems, and Water Supply System. During a mass casualty due to disasters such as floods, a major challenge that arises for the HCI is to respond to the crisis in a timely manner in an uncertain and variable environment. To address this issue the HCI should be disaster prepared, by fully understanding the complexities and interdependencies that exist in a hospital, emergency department or emergency response event. Modelling and simulation of a disaster scenario with these complexities would help in training and providing an opportunity for all the stakeholders to work together in a coordinated response to a disaster. The paper would present interdependencies related to HCI based on Stochastic Coloured Petri Nets (SCPN) modelling and simulation approach, given a flood scenario as the disaster which would disrupt the infrastructure nodes. The entire model would be integrated with Geographic information based decision support system to visualize the dynamic behaviour of the interdependency of the Healthcare and related CI network in a geographically based environment.

Regional Interdependence in Adaptation to Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stacey, M. T.; Lubell, M.; Hummel, M.; Wang, R. Q.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Herdman, L.; Pozdnukhov, A.; Sheehan, M.

2017-12-01

Projections of sea level rise may differ in the pace of change, but there is clear consensus that coastal communities will be facing more frequent and severe flooding events in the coming century. As communities adapt to future conditions, infrastructure systems will be developed, modified and abandoned, with important consequences for services and resilience. Whether action or inaction is pursued, the decisions made by an individual community regarding a single infrastructure system have implications that extend spatially and temporally due to geographic and infrastructure system interactions. At the same time, there are a number of barriers to collective or coordinated action that inhibit regional solutions. This interplay between local actions and regional responses is one of the great challenges facing decision-makers grappling with both local and regional climate-change adaptation. In this talk, I present case studies of the San Francisco Bay Area that examine how shoreline infrastructure, transporation sytems and decision-making networks interact to define the regional response to local actions and the local response to regional actions. I will characterize the barriers that exist to regional solutions, and characterize three types of interdependence that may motivate decision-makers to overcome those barriers. Using these examples, I will discuss the importance of interdisciplinary analyses that integrate the natural sciences, engineering and the social science to climate change adaptation more generally.

Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA supports the development and maintenance of water utility infrastructure across the country. Included in this effort is helping the nation’s water utilities anticipate, plan for, and adapt to risks from flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge.

Socio-economic Impact Analysis for Near Real-Time Flood Detection in the Lower Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oddo, P.; Ahamed, A.; Bolten, J. D.

2017-12-01

Flood events pose a severe threat to communities in the Lower Mekong River Basin. The combination of population growth, urbanization, and economic development exacerbate the impacts of these flood events. Flood damage assessments are frequently used to quantify the economic losses in the wake of storms. These assessments are critical for understanding the effects of flooding on the local population, and for informing decision-makers about future risks. Remote sensing systems provide a valuable tool for monitoring flood conditions and assessing their severity more rapidly than traditional post-event evaluations. The frequency and severity of extreme flood events are projected to increase, further illustrating the need for improved flood monitoring and impact analysis. In this study we implement a socio-economic damage model into a decision support tool with near real-time flood detection capabilities (NASA's Project Mekong). Surface water extent for current and historical floods is found using multispectral Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-meter imagery and the spectral Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signatures of permanent water bodies (MOD44W). Direct and indirect damages to populations, infrastructure, and agriculture are assessed using the 2011 Southeast Asian flood as a case study. Improved land cover and flood depth assessments result in a more refined understanding of losses throughout the Mekong River Basin. Results suggest that rapid initial estimates of flood impacts can provide valuable information to governments, international agencies, and disaster responders in the wake of extreme flood events.

The Human Dimension of Flood Risk: Towards Building Resilience in Vulnerable Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodrich, K.

2015-12-01

Significant advancements have been made in hydrodynamic modeling for natural disasters such as floods; however, it is vital to better understand how to effectively communicate risk to promote hazard preparedness. In many poor communities throughout the world, individuals live in areas that are hazardous because of the conditions of both the natural environment and built environment. Furthermore, environmental risks from the natural environment can be exacerbated by human development. Planning, behavioral change, and strategic actions taken by community members can mitigate risk, however, it is critical to first understand the perspective of those who are most vulnerable to (1) better communicate risk and (2) improve hazardous conditions. Thus, the Flood Resilient Infrastructure and Sustainable Environments (FloodRISE) project conducted a household level survey of over 350 participants in Los Laureles Canyon, a colonia in Tijuana, Mexico that is vulnerable to flooding. Preliminary results from the study will be discussed, specifically addressing: (1) the relationship between compounding risk factors, such as flooding and erosion, and (2) data that speaks to next steps for engaging community in the co-generation of local knowledge about flood hazards, and other strategies that contribute to more flood resilient communities.

Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Dynamics in Tropical, Urban Socio-Hydrological Systems: Green Infrastructure and Variable Precipitation Interception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nytch, C. J.; Meléndez-Ackerman, E. J.

2014-12-01

There is a pressing need to generate spatially-explicit models of rainfall-runoff dynamics in the urban humid tropics that can characterize flow pathways and flood magnitudes in response to erratic precipitation events. To effectively simulate stormwater runoff processes at multiple scales, complex spatio-temporal parameters such as rainfall, evapotranspiration, and antecedent soil moisture conditions must be accurately represented, in addition to uniquely urban factors including stormwater conveyance structures and connectivity between green and gray infrastructure elements. In heavily urbanized San Juan, Puerto Rico, stream flashiness and frequent flooding are major issues, yet still lacking is a hydrological analysis that models the generation and movement of fluvial and pluvial stormwater through the watershed. Our research employs a novel and multifaceted approach to dealing with this problem that integrates 1) field-based rainfall interception and infiltration methodologies to quantify the hydrologic functions of natural and built infrastructure in San Juan; 2) remote sensing analysis to produce a fine-scale typology of green and gray cover types in the city and determine patterns of spatial distribution and connectivity; 3) assessment of precipitation and streamflow variability at local and basin-wide scales using satellite and radar precipitation estimates in concert with rainfall and stream gauge point data and participatory flood mapping; 4) simulation of historical, present-day, and future stormwater runoff scenarios with a fully distributed hydrologic model that couples diverse components of urban socio-hydrological systems from formal and informal knowledge sources; and 5) bias and uncertainty analysis of parameters and model structure within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Preliminary results from the rainfall interception study suggest that canopy structure and leaf area index of different tree species contribute to variable throughfall and stemflow responses. Additional investigations are pending. The findings from this work will help inform urban planning and design, and build adaptive capacity to reduce flood vulnerability in the context of a changing climate.

Analysis of geohazards events along Swiss roads from autumn 2011 to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voumard, Jérémie; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

In Switzerland, roads and railways are threatened throughout the year by several natural hazards. Some of these events reach transport infrastructure many time per year leading to the closing of transportation corridors, loss of access, deviation travels and sometimes infrastructures damages and loss of human lives (3 fatalities during the period considered). The aim of this inventory of events is to investigate the number of natural events affecting roads and railways in Switzerland since autumn 2011 until now. Natural hazards affecting roads and railway can be classified in five categories: rockfalls, landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches and floods. They potentially cause several important direct damages on transportation infrastructure (roads, railway), vehicles (slightly or very damaged) or human life (slightly or seriously injured person, death). These direct damages can be easily evaluated from press articles or from Swiss police press releases. Indirect damages such as deviation cost are not taken into account in this work. During the two a half last years, about 50 events affecting the Swiss roads and Swiss railways infrastructures were inventoried. The proportion of events due to rockfalls is 45%, to landslides 25%, to debris flows 15%, to snow avalanches 10% and to floods 5%. During this period, three fatalities and two persons were injured while 23 vehicles (car, trains and coach) and 24 roads and railways were damaged. We can see that floods occur mainly on the Swiss Plateau whereas rockfalls, debris flow, snow avalanches and landslides are mostly located in the Alpine area. Most of events occur on secondary mountain roads and railways. The events are well distributed on the whole Alpine area except for the Gotthard hotspot, where an important European North-South motorway (hit in 2003 with two fatalities) and railway (hit three times in 2012 with one fatalities) are more frequently affected. According to the observed events in border regions of Switzerland, the trend in the Alps is similar.

Dealing with Natural Disasters: Preparedness versus Post-Event Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitar, N.

2015-12-01

Management or mitigation of natural disasters is comprised of two distinct elements: disaster preparedness and disaster response. Fundamentally disasters fall into two categories: 1) those whose timing can be predicted and evaluated in advance, such as hurricanes, floods, tsunamis, or even sea level rise; and 2) those that can be anticipated based on analysis, but their exact timing is unknown, such as earthquakes and landslides. Consequently, the type of response and options available for scientific and engineering consultation are fundamentally different. The common aspects of all natural disasters is that there is evidence of past events either historical or geologic, or both. Thus, given past evidence, scientists and engineers have an opportunity to recommend and guide development and implementation of long term or permanent mitigation measures, such as improving the resiliency of the infrastructure and emergency preparedness. However, the appropriate mitigation measures are very much a function of the type of event. Severe atmospheric events, such as hurricanes, typically can be predicted several days in advance and scientists and engineers have a role in guiding preparation of specific additional, temporary, mitigation measures and selective evacuation, as appropriate. In contrast, while earthquake potential of a given region may be well recognized, the actual timing of the event is an unknown and, consequently, the primary defense is in developing sufficiently resilient infrastructure which can be enhanced with early warning systems. Similarly, the type of damage caused by flooding, e.g. hurricane and tsunami, is significantly different from the type of damage caused by an earthquake in that flooding damage is pervasive affecting large contiguous areas wiping out all infrastructure whereas earthquake or landslide damage tends to be clustered with many elements of infrastructure remaining fully or somewhat operable. This distinction is very important when it comes to the type of technical guidance that is needed following such events. This presentation highlights lessons learned from post-event reconnaissance as a part of the NSF-funded Geotechnical Extreme Event Reconnaissance (GEER) over the last two decades.

Operational water management of Rijnland water system and pilot of ensemble forecasting system for flood control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Zwan, Rene

2013-04-01

The Rijnland water system is situated in the western part of the Netherlands, and is a low-lying area of which 90% is below sea-level. The area covers 1,100 square kilometres, where 1.3 million people live, work, travel and enjoy leisure. The District Water Control Board of Rijnland is responsible for flood defence, water quantity and quality management. This includes design and maintenance of flood defence structures, control of regulating structures for an adequate water level management, and waste water treatment. For water quantity management Rijnland uses, besides an online monitoring network for collecting water level and precipitation data, a real time control decision support system. This decision support system consists of deterministic hydro-meteorological forecasts with a 24-hr forecast horizon, coupled with a control module that provides optimal operation schedules for the storage basin pumping stations. The uncertainty of the rainfall forecast is not forwarded in the hydrological prediction. At this moment 65% of the pumping capacity of the storage basin pumping stations can be automatically controlled by the decision control system. Within 5 years, after renovation of two other pumping stations, the total capacity of 200 m3/s will be automatically controlled. In critical conditions there is a need of both a longer forecast horizon and a probabilistic forecast. Therefore ensemble precipitation forecasts of the ECMWF are already consulted off-line during dry-spells, and Rijnland is running a pilot operational system providing 10-day water level ensemble forecasts. The use of EPS during dry-spells and the findings of the pilot will be presented. Challenges and next steps towards on-line implementation of ensemble forecasts for risk-based operational management of the Rijnland water system will be discussed. An important element in that discussion is the question: will policy and decision makers, operator and citizens adapt this Anticipatory Water management, including temporary lower storage basin levels and a reduction in extra investments for infrastructural measures.

Anthropogenic Water Uses and River Flow Regime Alterations by Dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrazzi, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

Dams and impoundments have been designed to reconcile the systematic conflict between patterns of anthropogenic water uses and the temporal variability of river flows. Over the past seven decades, population growth and economic development led to a marked increase in the number of these water infrastructures, so that unregulated free-flowing rivers are now rare in developed countries and alterations of the hydrologic cycle at global scale have to be properly considered and characterized. Therefore, improving our understanding of the influence of dams and reservoirs on hydrologic regimes is going to play a key role in water planning and management. In this study, a physically based analytic approach is combined to extensive hydrologic data to investigate natural flow regime alterations downstream of dams in the Central-Eastern United States. These representative case studies span a wide range of different uses, including flood control, water supply and hydropower production. Our analysis reveals that the most evident effects of flood control through dams is a decrease in the intra-seasonal variability of flows, whose extent is controlled by the ratio between the storage capacity for flood control and the average incoming streamflow. Conversely, reservoirs used for water supply lead to an increase of daily streamflow variability and an enhanced inter-catchment heterogeneity. Over the last decades, the supply of fresh water required to sustain human populations has become a major concern at global scale. Accordingly, the number of reservoirs devoted to water supply increased by 50% in the US. This pattern foreshadows a possible shift in the cumulative effect of dams on river flow regimes in terms of inter-catchment homogenization and intra-annual flow variability.

Cost-efficient and storm surge-sensitive bridge design for coastal Maine.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Climatic variation felt through changing weather patterns is having increasingly acute effects on Maines : transportation infrastructure. Acute risk occurs as a result of events, such as storms and flooding, while chronic risk : surrounds longer r...

Metagenomic profiling of historic Colorado Front Range flood impact on distribution of riverine antibiotic resistance genes.

PubMed

Garner, Emily; Wallace, Joshua S; Argoty, Gustavo Arango; Wilkinson, Caitlin; Fahrenfeld, Nicole; Heath, Lenwood S; Zhang, Liqing; Arabi, Mazdak; Aga, Diana S; Pruden, Amy

2016-12-05

Record-breaking floods in September 2013 caused massive damage to homes and infrastructure across the Colorado Front Range and heavily impacted the Cache La Poudre River watershed. Given the unique nature of this watershed as a test-bed for tracking environmental pathways of antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) dissemination, we sought to determine the impact of extreme flooding on ARG reservoirs in river water and sediment. We utilized high-throughput DNA sequencing to obtain metagenomic profiles of ARGs before and after flooding, and investigated 23 antibiotics and 14 metals as putative selective agents during post-flood recovery. With 277 ARG subtypes identified across samples, total bulk water ARGs decreased following the flood but recovered to near pre-flood abundances by ten months post-flood at both a pristine site and at a site historically heavily influenced by wastewater treatment plants and animal feeding operations. Network analysis of de novo assembled sequencing reads into 52,556 scaffolds identified ARGs likely located on mobile genetic elements, with up to 11 ARGs per plasmid-associated scaffold. Bulk water bacterial phylogeny correlated with ARG profiles while sediment phylogeny varied along the river's anthropogenic gradient. This rare flood afforded the opportunity to gain deeper insight into factors influencing the spread of ARGs in watersheds.

Metagenomic profiling of historic Colorado Front Range flood impact on distribution of riverine antibiotic resistance genes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, Emily; Wallace, Joshua S.; Argoty, Gustavo Arango; Wilkinson, Caitlin; Fahrenfeld, Nicole; Heath, Lenwood S.; Zhang, Liqing; Arabi, Mazdak; Aga, Diana S.; Pruden, Amy

2016-12-01

Record-breaking floods in September 2013 caused massive damage to homes and infrastructure across the Colorado Front Range and heavily impacted the Cache La Poudre River watershed. Given the unique nature of this watershed as a test-bed for tracking environmental pathways of antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) dissemination, we sought to determine the impact of extreme flooding on ARG reservoirs in river water and sediment. We utilized high-throughput DNA sequencing to obtain metagenomic profiles of ARGs before and after flooding, and investigated 23 antibiotics and 14 metals as putative selective agents during post-flood recovery. With 277 ARG subtypes identified across samples, total bulk water ARGs decreased following the flood but recovered to near pre-flood abundances by ten months post-flood at both a pristine site and at a site historically heavily influenced by wastewater treatment plants and animal feeding operations. Network analysis of de novo assembled sequencing reads into 52,556 scaffolds identified ARGs likely located on mobile genetic elements, with up to 11 ARGs per plasmid-associated scaffold. Bulk water bacterial phylogeny correlated with ARG profiles while sediment phylogeny varied along the river’s anthropogenic gradient. This rare flood afforded the opportunity to gain deeper insight into factors influencing the spread of ARGs in watersheds.

Explorations Around "Graceful Failure" in Transportation Infrastructure: Lessons Learned By the Infrastructure and Climate Network (ICNet)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, J. M.; Thomas, N.; Mo, W.; Kirshen, P. H.; Douglas, E. M.; Daniel, J.; Bell, E.; Friess, L.; Mallick, R.; Kartez, J.; Hayhoe, K.; Croope, S.

2014-12-01

Recent events have demonstrated that the United States' transportation infrastructure is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events which will likely increase in the future. In light of the 60% shortfall of the $900 billion investment needed over the next five years to maintain this aging infrastructure, hardening of all infrastructures is unlikely. Alternative strategies are needed to ensure that critical aspects of the transportation network are maintained during climate extremes. Preliminary concepts around multi-tier service expectations of bridges and roads with reference to network capacity will be presented. Drawing from recent flooding events across the U.S., specific examples for roads/pavement will be used to illustrate impacts, disruptions, and trade-offs between performance during events and subsequent damage. This talk will also address policy and cultural norms within the civil engineering practice that will likely challenge the application of graceful failure pathways during extreme events.

An Integrated Urban Flood Analysis System in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Min-Seok; Yoon, Tae-Hyung; Choi, Ji-Hyeok

2017-04-01

Due to climate change and the rapid growth of urbanization, the frequency of concentrated heavy rainfall has caused urban floods. As a result, we studied climate change in Korea and developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting in urban areas. This system supports synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information. As part of the measures to deal with the increase of inland flood damage, we have found it necessary to build a systematic city flood prevention system that systematizes technology to quantify flood risk as well as flood forecast, taking into consideration both inland and river water. This combined inland-river flood analysis system conducts prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and performs prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded area. In addition, flood forecasts should be accurate and immediate. Accurate flood forecasts signify that the prediction of the watch, warning time and water level is precise. Immediate flood forecasts represent the forecasts lead time which is the time needed to evacuate. Therefore, in this study, in order to apply rainfall-runoff method to medium and small urban stream for flood forecasts, short-term rainfall forecasting using radar is applied to improve immediacy. Finally, it supports synthetic decision-making for prevention of flood disaster through real-time monitoring. Keywords: Urban Flood, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant (16AWMP-B066744-04) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

A Multidisciplinary Approach for Monitoring Flood and Landslide Hazards: Application to The Quebrada de Ramón Watershed in Central Chile.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras Vargas, M. T.; Oberli, C.; Castro, L. M.; Ledezma, C., Sr.; Gironas, J. A.; Escauriaza, C. R.

2016-12-01

Floods and landslides produced by heavy rainfall in the Andes have acquired new relevance due to recent large-scale events, which have had devastating consequences. The complexity of the geomorphology and the climate that characterizes this region promote the occurrence of flash floods with high sediment concentrations. In addition, cities are expanding in the Andean foothills, occupying the floodplains, and increasing the exposure of the population and infrastructure to floods and landslides. Performing a hazard assessment of extreme events in these regions is a very complex task, due to the great uncertainty associated to the factors controlling the dynamics of floods and landslides, and the lack of historical records of hydrometeorological variables. The analysis is further complicated by anthropic activities that can amplify the effects of these events, and by the influence of climate change and the ENSO phenomenon. To provide a better understanding of these events in Andean regions, we integrate knowledge from different disciplines to study various aspects associated to floods and landslides in the Quebrada de Ramón, an Andean watershed located in central Chile. We combine two methodologies to collect the information in the field: 1) We use traditional methods, including sediment samples, weather stations, and topographic data from aerial photography and LIDAR; and 2) We also implement innovative methods based on a wireless network of sensors for monitoring hydrometeorological variables in real-time. We employ this information to develop and couple weather forecast, hydrological and hydrodynamic models, which are used to predict the propagation of floods in the river channel and the urban area, as well as the occurrence of landslides on specific sections of the watershed. This work is expected to provide more reliable information to citizens, city planners, emergency managers and other decision makers to enhance the preparedness, response, and resilience of cities near mountain regions. Work supported by Fondecyt grants 1130940 and 1161439, and CONICYT/FONDAP grants 15110017 and 15110020.

Quantifying landscape change following the 1999 jökulhlaup at Sólheimajökull, southern Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staines, Kate E. H.

2010-05-01

Glacial outburst floods (jökulhlaups) occur periodically in glaciated areas worldwide as the result of subglacial volcanism, geothermal activity, natural dam-failures, high rainfall events and the release of stored meltwater. Despite their relative low frequency, the high discharge magnitudes and flow velocities can lead to widespread, intensive and long-lasting landscape change. Indeed, in the jökulhlaup-prone regions of southern Iceland, outburst floods are hypothesised to largely control long-term proglacial landscape evolution, with low-magnitude/high-frequency ablation-controlled meltwater flow having a minimal impact. Jökulhlaups also pose a major threat to populations, infrastructures and property. It is predicted with climate change that the frequency and potentially the magnitude of jökulhlaups will increase. It is therefore important to study jökulhlaup flow processes and understand how landscapes are impacted by and recover from these floods. Ultimately, this will better inform policy, flood prediction and hazard management in populated regions at risk from jökulhlaups. Currently, our understanding of jökulhlaup flow processes and the links between these processes and resulting landforms is limited. This is in parts due to the difficulty in directly measuring these high-magnitude, high-velocity floods. Research into jökulhlaup flow characteristics has consequently focussed on reconstructing flow parameters through a variety of palaeohydraulic techniques. However, these often produce conflicting and inaccurate reconstructions of flow inundation, peak discharge and flow rheology as key characteristics of jökulhlaups are frequently neglected (e.g. sediment transport, flow attenuation, sediment bulking and de-bulking). Furthermore, there has been little research into quantifying landscape change, response and recovery following jökulhlaups. The degree of preservation of flood deposits is determined in large parts by the pre-flood sensitivity of the landscape and its recovery potential. Factors controlling these include the recurrence interval and magnitude of past jökulhlaups, glacier surging, glacial advance and retreat cycles and fluctuations in glacier discharge. This study aims to quantify the immediate landscape change associated with a jökulhlaup and examine the response of the landscape in the years following the flood. The study site is the outwash plain (sandur) of Sólheimajökull, an outlet glacier of the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland. The most recent jökulhlaup, triggered by the eruption of the subglacial volcano Katla, was in July 1999. Field surveys of a boulder fan deposited during the flood at the snout of Sólheimajökull will be used to reconstruct flow palaeocompetence, with cross-sections of the river channel used to calculate peak discharge. From orthorectified pre- and immediate post-flood aerial imagery, digital elevation models will be generated and used to quantify net elevation change (i.e. sediment loss or gain) across the flooded area. Geomorphological maps of the proglacial area from before and in the decade following the flood have been produced and will be used to quantify changes in the main river channel, in terms of braiding and sinuosity parameters.

Communicating Risk and Cultivating Resilience in Rural Alaskan Communities: A Multi-Disciplinary Approach to Flood Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kontar, Y. Y.

2014-12-01

The increasing extent and vulnerability of technologically advanced society together with aspects of global climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Every year, communities around the world face the devastating consequences of hazardous events, including loss of life, property and infrastructure damage, and environmental decline. Environmentally sound strategies have to be developed to minimize these consequences. However, hazard-prone areas differ geographically, climatically, and culturally. There is no a one-size-fits-all solution. Thus, it is crucial that future decision-makers not only know the conditions that make some natural Earth processes hazardous to people, but also understand how people perceive and adjust to potential natural hazards in their regions. In May 2013, an ice jam caused major flooding in Galena, a remote village in interior Alaska. Within two days, flooding destroyed nearly the entire region's infrastructure, and displaced over 400 residents. Almost a year later, a significant part of Galena's population was still evacuated in Fairbanks and other neighboring towns. The rebuilding holdup reflected the federal government's reluctance to spend millions of dollars an the area that may be destroyed again by the next flood. Massive floods inundated towns along the Yukon River before (e.g., Eagle in 2009 and Holycross in 1975), but people return to refurbish and again inhabit the same territories. Rivers have a significant importance to Alaskan rural communities. Not only do rivers provide food, drink, transportation, and in some cases arable land and irrigation, but they also carry cultural significance for the Native Alaskan people. The Galena case study provides a revealing example of challenges of communicating with and educating the public and policy makers about natural hazards.

Overcoming Uncertainty with Help From Citizens: ISeeChange Case Studies on Urban Flooding, Indoor Heat waves, and Drought to Inform Resilience Efforts, Hazard Mitigation, and Long-term Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drapkin, J. K.; Wagner, L.

2017-12-01

When it comes to the impacts of weather and climate, the granular local data and context needed to inform infrastructure decisions, hazard mitigation efforts, and long-term planning can't be scraped from satellites, remote sensing, or radar data. This is particularly the case with respect to the heat inside people's homes, local street flooding, and landscapes historically unaccustomed to drought conditions. ISeeChange is developing tools that empower citizens, scientists, city planners, journalists, and local community groups to collaborate and iteratively fill-in crucial data gaps as conditions change in real time. ISeeChange connects the public with national media, scientists, and data tools that support community dialogue and enable collaborative science and journalism investigations about our changing environment. ISeeChange's app and platform serve as the center of several on- the-ground community pilot initiatives in cities around the country addressing urban heat, flooding, and drought. Results from ISeeChange investigations suggest that indoor temperatures in Harlem are 7-8 degrees hotter than outdoor temperatures at night; some residents in New Orleans may be experiencing the impacts of 5-year-floods on a more regular basis, and droughts don't look or behave the same in different regions, such as New England. Our presentation will focus on pilots in New Orleans, Harlem, and New England, which demonstrate how diverse teams are producing actionable science to inform the design of resilience efforts like real-time indoor heat notification systems, green infrastructure projects to manage stormwater and flooding, and a photographic index of drought.

Extreme Precipitation, Stormwater, and Flooding in King County: Co-producing Research to Support Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauger, G. S.; Lorente-Plazas, R.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.; Mitchell, T. P.; Simmonds, J.; Lee, S. Y.; Hegewisch, K.; Warner, M.; Won, J.

2017-12-01

King County has experienced 12 federally declared flood disasters since 1990, and tens of thousands of county residents commute through, live, and work in floodplains. In addition to flooding, stormwater is a critical management challenge, exacerbated by aging infrastructure, combined sewer and drainage systems, and continued development. Even absent the effects of climate change these are challenging management issues. Recent studies clearly point to an increase in precipitation extremes for the Pacific Northwest (e.g., Warner et al. 2015). Yet very little information is available on the magnitude and spatial distribution of this change. Others clearly show that local-scale changes in extreme precipitation can only be accurately quantified with dynamical downscaling, i.e.: using a regional climate model. This talk will describe a suite of research and adaptation efforts developed in a close collaboration between King County and the UW Climate Impacts Group. Building on past collaborations, research efforts were defined in collaboration with King County managers, addressing three key science questions: (1) How are the mesoscale variations in extreme precipitation modulated by changes in large-scale weather conditions? (2) How will precipitation extremes change? This was assessed via two new high-resolution regional model projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model (Skamarock et al. 2005). (3) What are the implications for stormwater and flooding in King County? This was assessed by both exploring the statistics of hourly precipitation extremes in the new projections, as well as new hydrologic modeling to assess the implications for river flooding. The talk will present results from these efforts, review the implications for King County planning and infrastructure, and synthesize lessons learned and opportunities for additional work.

The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Negri, Andrew J.; Burkardt, Nina; Golden, Joseph H.; Halverson, Jeffrey B.; Huffman, George J.; Larsen, Matthew C.; McGinley, John A.; Updike, Randall G.; Verdin, James P.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.

2005-01-01

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the USGS, and other government agencies convened in San Juan, Puerto Rim for a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The essence of the HFLC is to develop and integrate tools across disciplines to enable the issuance of regional guidance products for floods and landslides associated with major tropical rain systems, with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure. All three lead agencies are independently developing precipitation-flood-debris flow forecasting technologies, and all have a history of work on natural hazards both domestically and overseas. NOM has the capability to provide tracking and prediction of storm rainfall, trajectory and landfall and is developing flood probability and magnTtude capabilities. The USGS has the capability to evaluate the ambient stability of natural and man-made landforms, to assess landslide susceptibilities for those landforms, and to establish probabilities for initiation of landslides and debris flows. Additionally, the USGS has well-developed operational capacity for real-time monitoring and reporting of streamflow across distributed networks of automated gaging stations (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/). NASA has the capability to provide sophisticated algorithms for satellite remote sensing of precipitation, land use, and in the future, soil moisture. The Workshop sought to initiate discussion among three agencies regarding their specific and highly complimentary capabilities. The fundamental goal of the Workshop was to establish a framework that will leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed for example, in relatively data-rich Puerto Rim, it could be adapted for use in data-poor, low-infrastructure regions such as the Dominican Republic or Haiti. This paper provides an overview of the Workshop s goals, presentations and recommendations with respect to the development of the HFLC.

Urban infrastructure and longitudinal stream profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindner, G. A.; Miller, A. J.

2009-12-01

Urban streams usually are highly engineered or modified by human activity and are conventionally thought of as being geometrically, and thus hydraulically, simple. The work presented here, a contribution to NSF CNH Project 0709659, is designed to capture the influence of urban infrastructure on the character of longitudinal profiles and flow hydraulics along streams in the Baltimore metropolitan area. Detailed topographic data sets are derived from LiDAR supplemented by total-station surveys of the channel bed and low-flow water surface. These in turn are used to drive 2D depth-averaged hydraulic models comparing flow conditions over a range of urban development patterns and stormwater management regimes. Results from stream surveys of 1-2 km length indicate that channels in older, highly urbanized areas typically have straight planforms and strongly stepped profiles characterized by a series of deep, stagnant pools with short intervening riffles or runs. This pattern is associated with frequent interruption of the channel profile by bridges, culverts, road embankments and other artificial structures. In one survey reach of the Dead Run watershed, 50 percent of cumulative channel length has zero gradient at low flow, and 50 percent of cumulative head loss is accounted for by only 4 percent of channel length. In the suburban Red Run watershed recent development has occurred under strict stormwater management regulations with minimal encroachment on the riparian zone. Although their average gradients are similar, the Red Run survey reach is steeper than the Dead Run reach over most its length but has a smaller fraction of total head loss caused by local slope breaks. Modeling results indicate that these differences in stream morphology are associated with differences in velocity, flow pattern, and residence time at base flow; the stepped nature of the profile in the older urban area becomes less pronounced at intermediate to high flows, but the controlling influence of infrastructure may become dominant again during large floods. Because flashy urban streams have lower and more persistent low flows as well as more extreme flood flows, these hydraulic patterns may have implications for both biogeochemical cycling at base flow and transport and deposition of sediment and other constituents during flood periods. Continuing research will develop a typology of urban streams in terms of the influence of engineering practices on flow patterns and material transport.

To what extent can green infrastructure mitigate downstream flooding in a peri-urban catchment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, J. E.; Burns, M.; Sanders, B. F.; Flethcher, T.

2016-12-01

In this research, we couple an urban hydrologic model (MUSIC, eWater, AUS) with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo, UC Irvine, USA) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with stormwater control measures (SCMs) can propagate flood management benefits downstream. Our study site is the peri-urban Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment in eastern Melbourne, AUS, with an area of 4.5 km2 and connected impervious area of 9%. Urban development is mainly limited to the upper 2 km2of the catchment. Since 2009 the LSC catchment has been the subject of a large-scale experiment aiming to restore morenatural flow by implementing over 300 SCMs, such as rain tanks and infiltration trenches, resulting in runoff from 50% of connected impervious areas now being intercepted by some form of SCM. For our study we calibrated the hydrologic and hydraulic models based on current catchment conditions, then we developed models representing alternative SCM scenarios including a complete lack of SCMs versus a full implementation of SCMs. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 63-1% and durations between 10 min to 24 hr. Metrics of SCM efficacy in changing flood regime include flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Results indicate that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 hours, current SCM conditions reduce downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of SCMs would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of SCMs could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing damage potential to structures in the flow path and increasing the ability for vehicles to evacuate flooded streets. We also found that for storm durations longer than 3 hours, the SCMs capacity to retain rainfall runoff volumes is much decreased, with a full implementation of SCMs only reducing flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%. Therefore additional measures are required for downstream flood hazard mitigation from long duration events.

River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States and trends in annual timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, M. J.

2017-12-01

The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate-associated increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood-generating mechanisms operating in a basin and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and floodplains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood-generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, floodplain infrastructure, and human communities. For example, changes in spring or fall flood timing may negatively or positively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. In this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 climate-sensitive watersheds in New England and the Mid-Atlantic (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Historical trends in flood timing during the year are also investigated. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. The seasonality of flooding in these regions, and any historical changes, are considered in the context of other ongoing or expected phenological changes in the Northeast U.S. environment that affect flood generation—e.g., the timing of leaf-off/leaf-out for deciduous plants. How these factors interact will affect whether and how flood magnitudes and frequencies change in the future and associated impacts.

Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

Predicting Coastal Flood Severity using Random Forest Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.

2017-12-01

Coastal floods have become more common recently and are predicted to further increase in frequency and severity due to sea level rise. Predicting floods in coastal cities can be difficult due to the number of environmental and geographic factors which can influence flooding events. Built stormwater infrastructure and irregular urban landscapes add further complexity. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning algorithms in predicting street flood occurrence in an urban coastal setting. The model is trained and evaluated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 - October 2016. Rainfall, tide levels, water table levels, and wind conditions are used as input variables. Street flooding reports made by city workers after named and unnamed storm events, ranging from 1-159 reports per event, are the model output. Results show that Random Forest provides predictive power in estimating the number of flood occurrences given a set of environmental conditions with an out-of-bag root mean squared error of 4.3 flood reports and a mean absolute error of 0.82 flood reports. The Random Forest algorithm performed much better than Poisson regression. From the Random Forest model, total daily rainfall was by far the most important factor in flood occurrence prediction, followed by daily low tide and daily higher high tide. The model demonstrated here could be used to predict flood severity based on forecast rainfall and tide conditions and could be further enhanced using more complete street flooding data for model training.

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

2018-05-01

The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

Open Source Web-Based Solutions for Disseminating and Analyzing Flood Hazard Information at the Community Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santillan, M. M.-M.; Santillan, J. R.; Morales, E. M. O.

2017-09-01

We discuss in this paper the development, including the features and functionalities, of an open source web-based flood hazard information dissemination and analytical system called "Flood EViDEns". Flood EViDEns is short for "Flood Event Visualization and Damage Estimations", an application that was developed by the Caraga State University to address the needs of local disaster managers in the Caraga Region in Mindanao, Philippines in accessing timely and relevant flood hazard information before, during and after the occurrence of flood disasters at the community (i.e., barangay and household) level. The web application made use of various free/open source web mapping and visualization technologies (GeoServer, GeoDjango, OpenLayers, Bootstrap), various geospatial datasets including LiDAR-derived elevation and information products, hydro-meteorological data, and flood simulation models to visualize various scenarios of flooding and its associated damages to infrastructures. The Flood EViDEns application facilitates the release and utilization of this flood-related information through a user-friendly front end interface consisting of web map and tables. A public version of the application can be accessed at http://121.97.192.11:8082/. The application is currently expanded to cover additional sites in Mindanao, Philippines through the "Geo-informatics for the Systematic Assessment of Flood Effects and Risks for a Resilient Mindanao" or the "Geo-SAFER Mindanao" Program.

On Flood Frequency in Urban Areas under Changing Conditions and Implications on Stormwater Infrastructure Planning and Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norouzi, A.; Habibi, H.; Nazari, B.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.; Zhang, Y.

2016-12-01

With urbanization and climate change, many areas in the US and abroad face increasing threats of flash flooding. Due to nonstationarities arising from changes in land cover and climate, however, it is not readily possible to project how such changes may modify flood frequency. In this work, we describe a simple spatial stochastic model for rainfall-to-areal runoff in urban areas, evaluate climatological mean and variance of mean areal runoff (MAR) over a range of catchment scale, translate them into runoff frequency, which is used as a proxy for flood frequency, and assess its sensitivity to precipitation, imperviousness and soil, and their changes as a function of catchment scale and magnitude of precipitation. The findings indicate that, due to large sensitivity of frequency of MAR to multiple hydrometeorological and physiographic factors, estimation of flood frequency for urban catchments is inherently more uncertain. The approach used in this work is useful in developing bounds for flood frequencies in urban areas under nonstationary conditions arising from urbanization and climate change.

Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaitan, S.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2015-06-01

Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.

Future flooding impacts on transportation infrastructure and traffic patterns resulting from climate change.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-11-01

"This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the : Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, stream channel ...

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Flood Frequency Analysis for Transportation Design

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

Planning for construction of roads and bridges over rivers or floodplains includes a hydrologic analysis of rainfall amount and intensity : for a defined period. Infrastructure design must be based on accurate rainfall estimates how much (intensi...

How vulnerable is Texas’ freight infrastructure to extreme weather events? Final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

The Texas Freight Mobility Plan forecasts significant increases in freight volumes across all transportation modes over the next three decades. An increased frequency of extreme weather events such as prolonged droughts and flash flooding is also exp...

A Study on Integrated Community Based Flood Mitigation with Remote Sensing Technique in Kota Bharu, Kelantan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

'Ainullotfi, A. A.; Ibrahim, A. L.; Masron, T.

2014-02-01

This study is conducted to establish a community based flood management system that is integrated with remote sensing technique. To understand local knowledge, the demographic of the local society is obtained by using the survey approach. The local authorities are approached first to obtain information regarding the society in the study areas such as the population, the gender and the tabulation of settlement. The information about age, religion, ethnic, occupation, years of experience facing flood in the area, are recorded to understand more on how the local knowledge emerges. Then geographic data is obtained such as rainfall data, land use, land elevation, river discharge data. This information is used to establish a hydrological model of flood in the study area. Analysis were made from the survey approach to understand the pattern of society and how they react to floods while the analysis of geographic data is used to analyse the water extent and damage done by the flood. The final result of this research is to produce a flood mitigation method with a community based framework in the state of Kelantan. With the flood mitigation that involves the community's understanding towards flood also the techniques to forecast heavy rainfall and flood occurrence using remote sensing, it is hope that it could reduce the casualties and damage that might cause to the society and infrastructures in the study area.

A comparative assessment of decision trees algorithms for flash flood susceptibility modeling at Haraz watershed, northern Iran.

PubMed

Khosravi, Khabat; Pham, Binh Thai; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah; Shahabi, Himan; Revhaug, Inge; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

2018-06-15

Floods are one of the most damaging natural hazards causing huge loss of property, infrastructure and lives. Prediction of occurrence of flash flood locations is very difficult due to sudden change in climatic condition and manmade factors. However, prior identification of flood susceptible areas can be done with the help of machine learning techniques for proper timely management of flood hazards. In this study, we tested four decision trees based machine learning models namely Logistic Model Trees (LMT), Reduced Error Pruning Trees (REPT), Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Alternating Decision Trees (ADT) for flash flood susceptibility mapping at the Haraz Watershed in the northern part of Iran. For this, a spatial database was constructed with 201 present and past flood locations and eleven flood-influencing factors namely ground slope, altitude, curvature, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use, rainfall, river density, distance from river, lithology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical evaluation measures, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and Freidman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to validate and compare the prediction capability of the models. Results show that the ADT model has the highest prediction capability for flash flood susceptibility assessment, followed by the NBT, the LMT, and the REPT, respectively. These techniques have proven successful in quickly determining flood susceptible areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Historic Flooding in South Georgia, March 27-April 3, 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCallum, Brian E.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Landers, Mark N.

2009-01-01

A primary mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the measurement and documentation of the magnitude and extent of hydrologic hazards, such as floods, droughts, and hurricane storm surge. USGS personnel were deployed for historic widespread flooding that occurred throughout South Georgia from a storm event beginning in the late evening of March 27 and continuing through April 3, 2009. Data collected by USGS personnel and a network of automated real-time streamgages are critical to emergency management officials so that informed decisions can be made before, during, and after an event to assist in the protection of life and property. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 46 counties in Georgia were declared disaster areas due to flooding. FEMA reported that 1,875 homes and 29 businesses were affected by floodwaters. No lives were lost in this flood. Approximately $60 million in public infrastructure damage occurred to roads, culverts, bridges and a water treatment facility (Joseph T. McKinney, Federal Emergency Management Agency, written commun., July 2009).

Vulnerability of schools to floods in Nyando River catchment, Kenya.

PubMed

Ochola, Samuel O; Eitel, Bernhard; Olago, Daniel O

2010-07-01

This paper assesses the vulnerability of schools to floods in the Nyando River catchment (3,600 km(2)) in western Kenya and identifies measures needed to reduce this vulnerability. It surveys 130 schools in the lower reaches, where flooding is a recurrent phenomenon. Of the primary schools assessed, 40% were vulnerable, 48% were marginally vulnerable and 12% were not vulnerable. Of the secondary schools, 8% were vulnerable, 73% were marginally vulnerable and 19% were not vulnerable. Vulnerability to floods is due to a lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography, soil types and inadequate drainage. The Constituencies Development Fund (CDF), established in 2003, provides financial support to cover school construction and reconstruction costs; CDF Committees are expected to adopt school building standards. In an effort to promote safe and resilient construction and retrofitting to withstand floods, this paper presents vulnerability reduction strategies and recommendations for incorporating minimum standards in the on-going Primary School Infrastructure Programme Design.

Hydrodynamics of flood impact on urban mobility: critical conditions for vehicles carry-off

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Alcèrreca Huerta, Juan Carlos; Oumeraci, Hocine; Castelli, Fabio

2015-04-01

The street networks are a critical infrastructure during flood events in urban areas, on one hand because they allow the flood propagation in the urban environment, on the other hand because they ensure capillary rescue activities during and after the event. At present, the vehicle instability during an urban flood is recognized as being one of the most exacerbating factor for flood risk. In fact roads can be clogged by vehicles debris, which is also particularly dangerous for people's safety. In this work the incipient motion conditions of flooded vehicles are investigated and discussed. A mobility parameter θV is introduced as a function of the Froude number of the flow. The flow for different regimes past a specific vehicle geometry is modelled using a 3-dimensional numerical approach. The results of the numerical model clarify the contribution of drag and lift forces to the incipient motion conditions. The numerical results are compared with recent experimental data found in literature on partially submerged scale 1:18 vehicle models. The estimated force coefficients and instability conditions may provide a useful tool for flood risk assessment and management in urban areas.

Managing flood risks in the Mekong Delta: How to address emerging challenges under climate change and socioeconomic developments.

PubMed

Hoang, Long Phi; Biesbroek, Robbert; Tri, Van Pham Dang; Kummu, Matti; van Vliet, Michelle T H; Leemans, Rik; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

2018-02-24

Climate change and accelerating socioeconomic developments increasingly challenge flood-risk management in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta-a typical large, economically dynamic and highly vulnerable delta. This study identifies and addresses the emerging challenges for flood-risk management. Furthermore, we identify and analyse response solutions, focusing on meaningful configurations of the individual solutions and how they can be tailored to specific challenges using expert surveys, content analysis techniques and statistical inferences. Our findings show that the challenges for flood-risk management are diverse, but critical challenges predominantly arise from the current governance and institutional settings. The top-three challenges include weak collaboration, conflicting management objectives and low responsiveness to new issues. We identified 114 reported solutions and developed six flood management strategies that are tailored to specific challenges. We conclude that the current technology-centric flood management approach is insufficient given the rapid socioecological changes. This approach therefore should be adapted towards a more balanced management configuration where technical and infrastructural measures are combined with institutional and governance resolutions. Insights from this study contribute to the emerging repertoire of contemporary flood management solutions, especially through their configurations and tailoring to specific challenges.

How to deal with climate change uncertainty in the planning of engineering systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spackova, Olga; Dittes, Beatrice; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

The effect of extreme events such as floods on the infrastructure and built environment is associated with significant uncertainties: These include the uncertain effect of climate change, uncertainty on extreme event frequency estimation due to limited historic data and imperfect models, and, not least, uncertainty on future socio-economic developments, which determine the damage potential. One option for dealing with these uncertainties is the use of adaptable (flexible) infrastructure that can easily be adjusted in the future without excessive costs. The challenge is in quantifying the value of adaptability and in finding the optimal sequence of decision. Is it worth to build a (potentially more expensive) adaptable system that can be adjusted in the future depending on the future conditions? Or is it more cost-effective to make a conservative design without counting with the possible future changes to the system? What is the optimal timing of the decision to build/adjust the system? We develop a quantitative decision-support framework for evaluation of alternative infrastructure designs under uncertainties, which: • probabilistically models the uncertain future (trough a Bayesian approach) • includes the adaptability of the systems (the costs of future changes) • takes into account the fact that future decisions will be made under uncertainty as well (using pre-posterior decision analysis) • allows to identify the optimal capacity and optimal timing to build/adjust the infrastructure. Application of the decision framework will be demonstrated on an example of flood mitigation planning in Bavaria.

Applications of flood depth from rapid post-event footprint generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, Naomi; Millinship, Ian

2015-04-01

Immediately following large flood events, an indication of the area flooded (i.e. the flood footprint) can be extremely useful for evaluating potential impacts on exposed property and infrastructure. Specifically, such information can help insurance companies estimate overall potential losses, deploy claims adjusters and ultimately assists the timely payment of due compensation to the public. Developing these datasets from remotely sensed products seems like an obvious choice. However, there are a number of important drawbacks which limit their utility in the context of flood risk studies. For example, external agencies have no control over the region that is surveyed, the time at which it is surveyed (which is important as the maximum extent would ideally be captured), and how freely accessible the outputs are. Moreover, the spatial resolution of these datasets can be low, and considerable uncertainties in the flood extents exist where dry surfaces give similar return signals to water. Most importantly of all, flood depths are required to estimate potential damages, but generally cannot be estimated from satellite imagery alone. In response to these problems, we have developed an alternative methodology for developing high-resolution footprints of maximum flood extent which do contain depth information. For a particular event, once reports of heavy rainfall are received, we begin monitoring real-time flow data and extracting peak values across affected areas. Next, using statistical extreme value analyses of historic flow records at the same measured locations, the return periods of the maximum event flow at each gauged location are estimated. These return periods are then interpolated along each river and matched to JBA's high-resolution hazard maps, which already exist for a series of design return periods. The extent and depth of flooding associated with the event flow is extracted from the hazard maps to create a flood footprint. Georeferenced ground, aerial and satellite images are used to establish defence integrity, highlight breach locations and validate our footprint. We have implemented this method to create seven flood footprints, including river flooding in central Europe and coastal flooding associated with Storm Xaver in the UK (both in 2013). The inclusion of depth information allows damages to be simulated and compared to actual damage and resultant loss which become available after the event. In this way, we can evaluate depth-damage functions used in catastrophe models and reduce their associated uncertainty. In further studies, the depth data could be used at an individual property level to calibrate property type specific depth-damage functions.

Effects of an Extreme Flood on Trace Elements in River Water-From Urban Stream to Major River Basin.

PubMed

Barber, Larry B; Paschke, Suzanne S; Battaglin, William A; Douville, Chris; Fitzgerald, Kevin C; Keefe, Steffanie H; Roth, David A; Vajda, Alan M

2017-09-19

Major floods adversely affect water quality through surface runoff, groundwater discharge, and damage to municipal water infrastructure. Despite their importance, it can be difficult to assess the effects of floods on streamwater chemistry because of challenges collecting samples and the absence of baseline data. This study documents water quality during the September 2013 extreme flood in the South Platte River, Colorado, USA. Weekly time-series water samples were collected from 3 urban source waters (municipal tap water, streamwater, and wastewater treatment facility effluent) under normal-flow and flood conditions. In addition, water samples were collected during the flood at 5 locations along the South Platte River and from 7 tributaries along the Colorado Front Range. Samples were analyzed for 54 major and trace elements. Specific chemical tracers, representing different natural and anthropogenic sources and geochemical behaviors, were used to compare streamwater composition before and during the flood. The results differentiate hydrological processes that affected water quality: (1) in the upper watershed, runoff diluted most dissolved constituents, (2) in the urban corridor and lower watershed, runoff mobilized soluble constituents accumulated on the landscape and contributed to stream loading, and (3) flood-induced groundwater discharge mobilized soluble constituents stored in the vadose zone.

Effects of an extreme flood on trace elements in river water—From urban stream to major river basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barber, Larry B.; Paschke, Suzanne; Battaglin, William A.; Douville, Chris; Fitzgerald, Kevin C.; Keefe, Steffanie H.; Roth, David A.; Vajda, Alan M.

2017-01-01

Major floods adversely affect water quality through surface runoff, groundwater discharge, and damage to municipal water infrastructure. Despite their importance, it can be difficult to assess the effects of floods on streamwater chemistry because of challenges collecting samples and the absence of baseline data. This study documents water quality during the September 2013 extreme flood in the South Platte River, Colorado, USA. Weekly time-series water samples were collected from 3 urban source waters (municipal tap water, streamwater, and wastewater treatment facility effluent) under normal-flow and flood conditions. In addition, water samples were collected during the flood at 5 locations along the South Platte River and from 7 tributaries along the Colorado Front Range. Samples were analyzed for 54 major and trace elements. Specific chemical tracers, representing different natural and anthropogenic sources and geochemical behaviors, were used to compare streamwater composition before and during the flood. The results differentiate hydrological processes that affected water quality: (1) in the upper watershed, runoff diluted most dissolved constituents, (2) in the urban corridor and lower watershed, runoff mobilized soluble constituents accumulated on the landscape and contributed to stream loading, and (3) flood-induced groundwater discharge mobilized soluble constituents stored in the vadose zone.

Coastal storm monitoring in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wicklein, Shaun M.; Bennett, Mark

2014-01-01

Coastal communities in Virginia are prone to flooding, particularly during hurricanes, nor’easters, and other coastal low-pressure systems. These weather systems affect public safety, personal and public property, and valuable infrastructure, such as transportation, water and sewer, and electric-supply networks. Local emergency managers, utility operators, and the public are tasked with making difficult decisions regarding evacuations, road closures, and post-storm recovery efforts as a result of coastal flooding. In coastal Virginia these decisions often are made on the basis of anecdotal knowledge from past events or predictions based on data from monitoring sites located far away from the affected area that may not reflect local conditions. Preventing flood hazards, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, from becoming human disasters requires an understanding of the relative risks that flooding poses to specific communities. The risk to life and property can be very high if decisions about evacuations and road closures are made too late or not at all.

Development of CCHE2D embankment break model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Earthen embankment breach often results in detrimental impact on downstream residents and infrastructure, especially those located in the flooding zone. Embankment failures are most commonly caused by overtopping or internal erosion. This study is to develop a practical numerical model for simulat...

Webinar Announcement - The Clean Water State Revolving Fund: Flexible Funding for the Urban Tree Canopy

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This webinar, presented by the EPA and USDA, explores how the CWSRF can be used as a funding source for green infrastructure and urban forestry projects—a cost effective way to reduce combined sewage flooding problems.

Estimating urban flood risk - uncertainty in design criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newby, M.; Franks, S. W.; White, C. J.

2015-06-01

The design of urban stormwater infrastructure is generally performed assuming that climate is static. For engineering practitioners, stormwater infrastructure is designed using a peak flow method, such as the Rational Method as outlined in the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (AR&R) guidelines and estimates of design rainfall intensities. Changes to Australian rainfall intensity design criteria have been made through updated releases of the AR&R77, AR&R87 and the recent 2013 AR&R Intensity Frequency Distributions (IFDs). The primary focus of this study is to compare the three IFD sets from 51 locations Australia wide. Since the release of the AR&R77 IFDs, the duration and number of locations for rainfall data has increased and techniques for data analysis have changed. Updated terminology coinciding with the 2013 IFD release has also resulted in a practical change to the design rainfall. For example, infrastructure that is designed for a 1 : 5 year ARI correlates with an 18.13% AEP, however for practical purposes, hydraulic guidelines have been updated with the more intuitive 20% AEP. The evaluation of design rainfall variation across Australia has indicated that the changes are dependent upon location, recurrence interval and rainfall duration. The changes to design rainfall IFDs are due to the application of differing data analysis techniques, the length and number of data sets and the change in terminology from ARI to AEP. Such changes mean that developed infrastructure has been designed to a range of different design criteria indicating the likely inadequacy of earlier developments to the current estimates of flood risk. In many cases, the under-design of infrastructure is greater than the expected impact of increased rainfall intensity under climate change scenarios.

Green Infrastructure, Groundwater and the Sustainable City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Band, L. E.

2014-12-01

The management of water is among the most important attributes of urbanization. Provision of sufficient quantities and quality of freshwater, treatment and disposal of wastewater and flood protection are critical for urban sustainability. Over the last century, two major shifts in water management paradigms have occurred, the first to improve public health with the provision of infrastructure for centralized sanitary effluent collection and treatment, and the rapid drainage and routing of stormwater. A current shift in paradigm is now occurring in response to the unintended consequences of sanitary and stormwater management, which have degraded downstream water bodies and shifted flood hazard downstream. Current infrastructure is being designed and implemented to retain, rather than rapidly drain, stormwater, with a focus on infiltration based methods. In urban areas, this amounts to a shift in hydrologic behavior to depression focused recharge. While stormwater is defined as surface flow resulting from developed areas, an integrated hydrologic systems approach to urban water management requires treatment of the full critical zone. In urban areas this extends from the top of the vegetation and building canopy, to a subsurface depth including natural soils, fill, saprolite and bedrock. In addition to matric and network flow in fracture systems, an urban "karst" includes multiple generations of current and past infrastructure, which has developed extensive subsurface pipe networks for supply and drainage, enhancing surface/groundwater flows and exchange. In this presentation, Band will discuss the need to focus on the urban critical zone, and the development and adaptation of new modeling and analytical approaches to understand and plan green infrastructure based on surface/groundwater/ecosystem interactions, and implications for the restoration and new design of cities.

High-performance integrated virtual environment (HIVE): a robust infrastructure for next-generation sequence data analysis

PubMed Central

Simonyan, Vahan; Chumakov, Konstantin; Dingerdissen, Hayley; Faison, William; Goldweber, Scott; Golikov, Anton; Gulzar, Naila; Karagiannis, Konstantinos; Vinh Nguyen Lam, Phuc; Maudru, Thomas; Muravitskaja, Olesja; Osipova, Ekaterina; Pan, Yang; Pschenichnov, Alexey; Rostovtsev, Alexandre; Santana-Quintero, Luis; Smith, Krista; Thompson, Elaine E.; Tkachenko, Valery; Torcivia-Rodriguez, John; Wan, Quan; Wang, Jing; Wu, Tsung-Jung; Wilson, Carolyn; Mazumder, Raja

2016-01-01

The High-performance Integrated Virtual Environment (HIVE) is a distributed storage and compute environment designed primarily to handle next-generation sequencing (NGS) data. This multicomponent cloud infrastructure provides secure web access for authorized users to deposit, retrieve, annotate and compute on NGS data, and to analyse the outcomes using web interface visual environments appropriately built in collaboration with research and regulatory scientists and other end users. Unlike many massively parallel computing environments, HIVE uses a cloud control server which virtualizes services, not processes. It is both very robust and flexible due to the abstraction layer introduced between computational requests and operating system processes. The novel paradigm of moving computations to the data, instead of moving data to computational nodes, has proven to be significantly less taxing for both hardware and network infrastructure. The honeycomb data model developed for HIVE integrates metadata into an object-oriented model. Its distinction from other object-oriented databases is in the additional implementation of a unified application program interface to search, view and manipulate data of all types. This model simplifies the introduction of new data types, thereby minimizing the need for database restructuring and streamlining the development of new integrated information systems. The honeycomb model employs a highly secure hierarchical access control and permission system, allowing determination of data access privileges in a finely granular manner without flooding the security subsystem with a multiplicity of rules. HIVE infrastructure will allow engineers and scientists to perform NGS analysis in a manner that is both efficient and secure. HIVE is actively supported in public and private domains, and project collaborations are welcomed. Database URL: https://hive.biochemistry.gwu.edu PMID:26989153

High-performance integrated virtual environment (HIVE): a robust infrastructure for next-generation sequence data analysis.

PubMed

Simonyan, Vahan; Chumakov, Konstantin; Dingerdissen, Hayley; Faison, William; Goldweber, Scott; Golikov, Anton; Gulzar, Naila; Karagiannis, Konstantinos; Vinh Nguyen Lam, Phuc; Maudru, Thomas; Muravitskaja, Olesja; Osipova, Ekaterina; Pan, Yang; Pschenichnov, Alexey; Rostovtsev, Alexandre; Santana-Quintero, Luis; Smith, Krista; Thompson, Elaine E; Tkachenko, Valery; Torcivia-Rodriguez, John; Voskanian, Alin; Wan, Quan; Wang, Jing; Wu, Tsung-Jung; Wilson, Carolyn; Mazumder, Raja

2016-01-01

The High-performance Integrated Virtual Environment (HIVE) is a distributed storage and compute environment designed primarily to handle next-generation sequencing (NGS) data. This multicomponent cloud infrastructure provides secure web access for authorized users to deposit, retrieve, annotate and compute on NGS data, and to analyse the outcomes using web interface visual environments appropriately built in collaboration with research and regulatory scientists and other end users. Unlike many massively parallel computing environments, HIVE uses a cloud control server which virtualizes services, not processes. It is both very robust and flexible due to the abstraction layer introduced between computational requests and operating system processes. The novel paradigm of moving computations to the data, instead of moving data to computational nodes, has proven to be significantly less taxing for both hardware and network infrastructure.The honeycomb data model developed for HIVE integrates metadata into an object-oriented model. Its distinction from other object-oriented databases is in the additional implementation of a unified application program interface to search, view and manipulate data of all types. This model simplifies the introduction of new data types, thereby minimizing the need for database restructuring and streamlining the development of new integrated information systems. The honeycomb model employs a highly secure hierarchical access control and permission system, allowing determination of data access privileges in a finely granular manner without flooding the security subsystem with a multiplicity of rules. HIVE infrastructure will allow engineers and scientists to perform NGS analysis in a manner that is both efficient and secure. HIVE is actively supported in public and private domains, and project collaborations are welcomed. Database URL: https://hive.biochemistry.gwu.edu. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Defining, Describing, and Categorizing Public Health Infrastructure Priorities for Tropical Cyclone, Flood, Storm, Tornado, and Tsunami-Related Disasters.

PubMed

Ryan, Benjamin J; Franklin, Richard C; Burkle, Frederick M; Watt, Kerrianne; Aitken, Peter; Smith, Erin C; Leggat, Peter

2016-08-01

The study aim was to undertake a qualitative research literature review to analyze available databases to define, describe, and categorize public health infrastructure (PHI) priorities for tropical cyclone, flood, storm, tornado, and tsunami-related disasters. Five electronic publication databases were searched to define, describe, or categorize PHI and discuss tropical cyclone, flood, storm, tornado, and tsunami-related disasters and their impact on PHI. The data were analyzed through aggregation of individual articles to create an overall data description. The data were grouped into PHI themes, which were then prioritized on the basis of degree of interdependency. Sixty-seven relevant articles were identified. PHI was categorized into 13 themes with a total of 158 descriptors. The highest priority PHI identified was workforce. This was followed by water, sanitation, equipment, communication, physical structure, power, governance, prevention, supplies, service, transport, and surveillance. This review identified workforce as the most important of the 13 thematic areas related to PHI and disasters. If its functionality fails, workforce has the greatest impact on the performance of health services. If addressed post-disaster, the remaining forms of PHI will then be progressively addressed. These findings are a step toward providing an evidence base to inform PHI priorities in the disaster setting. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:598-610).

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt; Gingerich, Stephen B.; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Quataert, Ellen; Voss, Clifford I.; Field, Donald W.; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian; Piniak, Greg A.; McCall, Robert T.

2018-01-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding.

PubMed

Storlazzi, Curt D; Gingerich, Stephen B; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia M; Swarzenski, Peter W; Quataert, Ellen; Voss, Clifford I; Field, Donald W; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian; Piniak, Greg A; McCall, Robert

2018-04-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states. PMID:29707635

Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

2016-04-01

Global warming increases the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and this could lead to more intense rainfalls and possibly increasing natural hazards in the form of flooding in some regions. This implies that traditional practice of using historical hydrological records alone is somewhat limited for supporting long-term water infrastructure planning. This has motivated recent global scale studies to evaluate river flood risks (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014, Sadoff et al., 2015) and adaptations benefits (e.g., Jongman et al., 2015). To support decision-making in river flood risk reduction, this study takes a further step to examine the benefits and corresponding residual risks for a range of flood protection levels. To do that, we channelled runoff information of a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and each CMIP5 model (historic and future periods) into a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011). We incorporated the latest global river width data (Yamazaki et al., 2014) into CaMa-Flood and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the flood protection benefits. We quantify the corresponding residual risks using a mathematical approach that is consistent with the modelling structure of CaMa-Flood. Globally and regionally, we find that the benefits of flood protection level peak somewhere between 20 and 500 years; residual risks diminish substantially when flood protection level exceeds 20 years. These findings might be useful for decision-makers to weight the size of water infrastructure investment and emergency response capacity under climate change. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S.N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Jongman et al., 2015. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation. Proceedings of National Academy of the United States of America 112, E2271-E2280, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1414439112. Sadoff et al., 2015. Securing Water, Sustaining Growth: Report of the GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and Sustainable Growth, University of Oxford, UK, 180 pp. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726. Yamazaki et al., 2014. Development of the Global Width Database for Large Rivers. Water Resources Research 50, 3467-3480, doi: 10.1002/2013WR014664.

On-Farm, Almond Orchard Flooding as a Viable Aquifer Recharge Alternative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, C.; Nico, P. S.; Wu, Y.; Newman, G. A.; Conrad, M. E.; Dahlke, H. E.

2017-12-01

In 2014, California legislators passed the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), which requires groundwater sustainability agencies (areas) to identify/prioritize water basins, develop current and projected water use/needs, develop a groundwater management plan, develop fees, etc. One of the challenges for implementing SGMA is the lack of data that can support alternative groundwater recharge methods such as on-farm flooding. Prior to anthropogenic river control, river floodplains captured excess water during overbank flow in the rainy season in the CA central valley. Today levees and canals strategically route rainy season high flows to the delta/ocean when irrigation water is not needed. Utilizing farmland once again as infiltration basins for groundwater banking and aquifer recharge could be a viable answer to California's depleted central valley aquifers. Prior to 2017, U.C. Davis had partnered with the Almond Board of California (ABC) and local growers to study the efficacy of agricultural flooding and the effects on annual almond crops (. LBNL joined this team to help understand the conveyance of recharge water, using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), into the subsurface (i.e. localized fast paths, depth of infiltration, etc.) during flooding events. The fate of the recharge water is what is significant to understanding the viability of on-farm flooding as an aquifer recharge option. In this study two orchards (in Delhi and Modesto, CA), each approximately 2 acres, were flooded during the almond tree dormant period (January), to recharge 2 acre/ft of water into the local aquifers. ERT was used to characterize (soil structure) and monitor water infiltration over a single flooding event to investigate the fate of applied water. Data were collected every hour prior to flooding (baseline), during, and after all flood water had infiltrated (about 5 days total). Our time-lapse ERT results show a heterogeneous soil structure that leads to non-uniform infiltration (fast paths) and water recharge well below the root zone to a depth below 15m (45ft) at both study sites. These results advocate the use of on-farm flooding as a viable option for groundwater recharge of local aquifers and its usefulness given existing infrastructure and potential to divert water as it heads to the delta/ocean.

Vehicles instability criteria for flood risk assessment of a street network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Huybrechts, Nicolas; Ouahsine, Abdellatif; Chassé, Patrick; Oumeraci, Hocine; Castelli, Fabio

2016-05-01

The mutual interaction between floods and human activity is a process, which has been evolving over history and has shaped flood risk pathways. In developed countries, many events have illustrated that the majority of the fatalities during a flood occurs in a vehicle, which is considered as a safe shelter but it may turn into a trap for several combinations of water depth and velocity. Thus, driving a car in floodwaters is recognized as the most crucial aggravating factor for people safety. On the other hand, the entrainment of vehicles may locally cause obstructions to the flow and induce the collapse of infrastructures. Flood risk to vehicles can be defined as the combination of the probability of a vehicle of being swept away (i.e. the hazard) and the actual traffic/parking density, i.e. the vulnerability. Hazard for vehicles can be assessed through the spatial identification and mapping of the critical conditions for vehicles incipient motion. This analysis requires a flood map with information on water depth and velocity and consistent instability criteria accounting for flood and vehicles characteristics. Vulnerability is evaluated thanks to the road network and traffic data. Therefore, vehicles flood risk mapping can support people's education and management practices in order to reduce the casualties. In this work, a flood hazard classification for vehicles is introduced and an application to a real case study is presented and discussed.

Estimating future flood frequency and magnitude in basins affected by glacier wastage.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

Infrastructure, such as bridge crossings, requires informed structural designs in order to be effective and reliable for : decades. A typical bridge is intended to operate for 75 years or more, a period of time anticipated to exhibit a warming : clim...

Computational enhancements for the Virginia Department of Transportation Regional River Severe Storm (R2S2) Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-01

Climate change introduces infrastructure flooding challenges, especially for coastal regions with low topographic relief. More frequently occurring intense storms and sea level rise are two projected impacts of climate change that will lead to increa...

High-resolution maps of forest-urban watersheds present an opportunity for ecologists and managers

EPA Science Inventory

Dense populations of people and abundant impervious surfaces contribute to poor water quality and increased flooding in forest-urban watersheds. Green infrastructure mitigates these effects, but precisely quantifying benefits is difficult because most land cover maps rely on coar...

Modeling Urban Growth Spatial Dynamics: Case studies of Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchta, Katja; Abo El Wafa, Hany; Printz, Andreas; Pauleit, Stephan

2013-04-01

Rapid urbanization, and consequently, the dramatic spatial expansion of mostly informal urban areas increases the vulnerability of African cities to the effects of climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent flooding, droughts and heat waves. The EU FP 7 funded project CLUVA (Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, www.cluva.eu) aims to develop strategies for minimizing the risks of natural hazards caused by climate change and to improve the coping capacity of African cities. Green infrastructure may play a particular role in climate change adaptation by providing ecosystem services for flood protection, stormwater retention, heat island moderation and provision of food and fuel wood. In this context, a major challenge is to gain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the cities and how these impact on green infrastructure and hence their vulnerability. Urban growth scenarios for two African cities, namely Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, were developed based on a characterization of their urban morphology. A population growth driven - GIS based - disaggregation modeling approach was applied. Major impact factors influencing the urban dynamics were identified both from literature and interviews with local experts. Location based factors including proximity to road infrastructure and accessibility, and environmental factors including slope, surface and flood risk areas showed a particular impact on urban growth patterns. In Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam, population density scenarios were modeled comparing two housing development strategies. Results showed that a densification scenario significantly decreases the loss of agricultural and green areas such as forests, bushland and sports grounds. In Dar es Salaam, the scenario of planned new settlements with a population density of max. 350 persons per hectare would lead until 2025 to a loss of agricultural land (-10.1%) and green areas (-6.6%). On the other hand, 12.4% of agricultural land and 16.1% of green areas would be lost in the low density development scenario of unplanned settlements of max. 150 persons per hectare. Relocating the population living in flood prone areas in the case of Addis Ababa and keeping those areas free from further settlements in the case of Dar es Salaam would result in even lower losses (agricultural land: -10.0%, green areas: -5.6%) as some flood prone areas overlap with agricultural/ green areas. The scenario models introduced in this research can be used by planners as tools to understand and manage the different outcomes of distinctive urban development strategies on growth patterns and how they interact with different climate change drivers such as loss of green infrastructure and effects such as frequent flooding hazards. Due to the relative simplicity of their structure and the single modeling environment, the models can be transferred to similar cities with minor modifications accommodating the different conditions of each city. Already, in Addis Ababa the results of the model will be used in the current revision of the Master plan of the city. Keywords: GIS, modeling, Urban Dynamics, Dar es Salaam, Addis Ababa, urbanization

Biophysical, infrastructural and social heterogeneities explain spatial distribution of waterborne gastrointestinal disease burden in Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baeza, Andrés; Estrada-Barón, Alejandra; Serrano-Candela, Fidel; Bojórquez, Luis A.; Eakin, Hallie; Escalante, Ana E.

2018-06-01

Due to unplanned growth, large extension and limited resources, most megacities in the developing world are vulnerable to hydrological hazards and infectious diseases caused by waterborne pathogens. Here we aim to elucidate the extent of the relation between the spatial heterogeneity of physical and socio-economic factors associated with hydrological hazards (flooding and scarcity) and the spatial distribution of gastrointestinal disease in Mexico City, a megacity with more than 8 million people. We applied spatial statistics and multivariate regression analyses to high resolution records of gastrointestinal diseases during two time frames (2007–2009 and 2010–2014). Results show a pattern of significant association between water flooding events and disease incidence in the city center (lowlands). We also found that in the periphery (highlands), higher incidence is generally associated with household infrastructure deficiency. Our findings suggest the need for integrated and spatially tailored interventions by public works and public health agencies, aimed to manage socio-hydrological vulnerability in Mexico City.

Seismically reactivated Hattian slide in Kashmir, Northern Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Jean F.

2009-07-01

The Pakistan 2005 earthquake, of magnitude 7.6, caused severe damage on landscape and infrastructure, in addition to numerous casualties. The event reactivated Hattian Slide, creating a rock avalanche in a location where earlier mass movements had happened already, as indicated by satellite imagery and ground investigation. The slide originated on Dana Hill, in the upper catchment area of Hattian on Karli Stream, a tributary of Jhelum River, Pakistan, and buried the hamlet Dandbeh and several farms nearby. A natural dam accumulated, impounding two lakes, the larger one threatening parts of downstream Hattian Village with flooding. An access road and artificial spillways needed to be constructed in very short time to minimize the flooding risk. As shown by this example, when pointing out the risk of large-scale damage to population and infrastructure by way of hazard indication maps of seismically active regions, and preparing for alleviation of that risk, it is advisable to consider the complete Holocene history of the slopes involved.

Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, Maya K.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E.

2017-06-01

The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.

How extreme was the October 2015 flood in the Carolinas? An assessment of flood frequency analysis and distribution tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R. C.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M. E.

2018-07-01

This paper examines the frequency, distribution tails, and peak-over-threshold (POT) of extreme floods through analysis that centers on the October 2015 flooding in North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina (SC), United States (US). The most striking features of the October 2015 flooding were a short time to peak (Tp) and a multi-hour continuous flood peak which caused intensive and widespread damages to human lives, properties, and infrastructure. The 2015 flooding was produced by a sequence of intense rainfall events which originated from category 4 hurricane Joaquin over a period of four days. Here, the probability distribution and distribution parameters (i.e., location, scale, and shape) of floods were investigated by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of the annual maximum flood (AMF) and POT with light- to heavy- theoretical tails: Fréchet, Pareto, Gumbel, Weibull, Beta, and Exponential. Specifically, four sets of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauging data from the central Carolinas with record lengths from approximately 65-125 years were used. Analysis suggests that heavier-tailed distributions are in better agreement with the POT and somewhat AMF data than more often used exponential (light) tailed probability distributions. Further, the threshold selection and record length affect the heaviness of the tail and fluctuations of the parent distributions. The shape parameter and its evolution in the period of record play a critical and poorly understood role in determining the scaling of flood response to intense rainfall.

Nonstationary decision model for flood risk decision scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, Caitlin M.; Brown, Casey M.

2016-11-01

Hydroclimatic stationarity is increasingly questioned as a default assumption in flood risk management (FRM), but successor methods are not yet established. Some potential successors depend on estimates of future flood quantiles, but methods for estimating future design storms are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Here we apply a Nonstationary Decision Model (NDM) to flood risk planning within the decision scaling framework. The NDM combines a nonstationary probability distribution of annual peak flow with optimal selection of flood management alternatives using robustness measures. The NDM incorporates structural and nonstructural FRM interventions and valuation of flows supporting ecosystem services to calculate expected cost of a given FRM strategy. A search for the minimum-cost strategy under incrementally varied representative scenarios extending across the plausible range of flood trend and value of the natural flow regime discovers candidate FRM strategies that are evaluated and compared through a decision scaling analysis (DSA). The DSA selects a management strategy that is optimal or close to optimal across the broadest range of scenarios or across the set of scenarios deemed most likely to occur according to estimates of future flood hazard. We illustrate the decision framework using a stylized example flood management decision based on the Iowa City flood management system, which has experienced recent unprecedented high flow episodes. The DSA indicates a preference for combining infrastructural and nonstructural adaptation measures to manage flood risk and makes clear that options-based approaches cannot be assumed to be "no" or "low regret."

Water in the Balance: A Parking Lot Story

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, N. A.; Vitousek, S.

2017-12-01

The greater Chicagoland region has seen a high degree of urbanization since 1970. For example, between 1970-1990 the region experienced 4% population growth, a 35% increase in urban land use, and approximately 454 square miles of agricultural land was mostly converted into urban uses. Transformation of land into urban uses in the Chicagoland region has altered the stream and catchment response to rainfall events, specifically an increase in stream flashiness and increase in urban flooding. Chicago has begun to address these changes through green infrastructure. To understand the impact of green infrastructure at local, city-wide, and watershed scales, individual projects need to be accurately and sufficiently modeled. A traditional parking lot conversion into a porous parking lot at the University of Illinois at Chicago was modeled using SWMM and scrutinized using field data to look at stormwater runoff and water balance prior and post reconstruction. SWMM modeling suggested an 87% reduction in peak flow as well as a 100% reduction in flooding for a 24 hour, 1.72-inch storm. For the same storm, field data suggest an 89% reduction in peak flow as well as a 100% reduction in flooding. Modeling suggested 100% reductions in flooding for longer duration storms (24 hour+) and a smaller reduction in peak flow ( 66%). The highly parameterized SWMM model agrees well with collected data and analysis. Further effort is being made to use data mining to create correlations within the collected datasets that can be integrated into a model that follows a standardized formation process and reduces parameterization.

Rainfall and runoff Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Washington State considering the change and uncertainty of observed and anticipated extreme rainfall and snow events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.; Mortuza, M. R.; Li, H. Y.

2015-12-01

The observed and anticipated increasing trends in extreme storm magnitude and frequency, as well as the associated flooding risk in the Pacific Northwest highlighted the need for revising and updating the local intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which are commonly used for designing critical water infrastructure. In Washington State, much of the drainage system installed in the last several decades uses IDF curves that are outdated by as much as half a century, making the system inadequate and vulnerable for flooding as seen more frequently in recent years. In this study, we have developed new and forward looking rainfall and runoff IDF curves for each county in Washington State using recently observed and projected precipitation data. Regional frequency analysis coupled with Bayesian uncertainty quantification and model averaging methods were used to developed and update the rainfall IDF curves, which were then used in watershed and snow models to develop the runoff IDF curves that explicitly account for effects of snow and drainage characteristic into the IDF curves and related designs. The resulted rainfall and runoff IDF curves provide more reliable, forward looking, and spatially resolved characteristics of storm events that can assist local decision makers and engineers to thoroughly review and/or update the current design standards for urban and rural storm water management infrastructure in order to reduce the potential ramifications of increasing severe storms and resulting floods on existing and planned storm drainage and flood management systems in the state.

A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

PubMed Central

Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

2016-01-01

Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

The costs of uncoordinated infrastructure management in multi-reservoir river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeuland, Marc; Baker, Justin; Bartlett, Ryan; Lacombe, Guillaume

2014-10-01

Though there are surprisingly few estimates of the economic benefits of coordinated infrastructure development and operations in international river basins, there is a widespread belief that improved cooperation is beneficial for managing water scarcity and variability. Hydro-economic optimization models are commonly-used for identifying efficient allocation of water across time and space, but such models typically assume full coordination. In the real world, investment and operational decisions for specific projects are often made without full consideration of potential downstream impacts. This paper describes a tractable methodology for evaluating the economic benefits of infrastructure coordination. We demonstrate its application over a range of water availability scenarios in a catchment of the Mekong located in Lao PDR, the Nam Ngum River Basin. Results from this basin suggest that coordination improves system net benefits from irrigation and hydropower by approximately 3-12% (or US12-53 million/yr) assuming moderate levels of flood control, and that the magnitude of coordination benefits generally increases with the level of water availability and with inflow variability. Similar analyses would be useful for developing a systematic understanding of the factors that increase the costs of non-cooperation in river basin systems worldwide, and would likely help to improve targeting of efforts to stimulate complicated negotiations over water resources.

Flood of June 2008 in Southern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fitzpatrick, Faith A.; Peppler, Marie C.; Walker, John F.; Rose, William J.; Waschbusch, Robert J.; Kennedy, James L.

2008-01-01

In June 2008, heavy rain caused severe flooding across southern Wisconsin. The floods were aggravated by saturated soils that persisted from unusually wet antecedent conditions from a combination of floods in August 2007, more than 100 inches of snow in winter 2007-08, and moist conditions in spring 2008. The flooding caused immediate evacuations and road closures and prolonged, extensive damages and losses associated with agriculture, businesses, housing, public health and human needs, and infrastructure and transportation. Record gage heights and streamflows occurred at 21 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages across southern Wisconsin from June 7 to June 21. Peak-gage-height data, peak-streamflow data, and flood probabilities are tabulated for 32 USGS streamgages in southern Wisconsin. Peak-gage-height and peak-streamflow data also are tabulated for three ungaged locations. Extensive flooding along the Baraboo River, Kickapoo River, Crawfish River, and Rock River caused particularly severe damages in nine communities and their surrounding areas: Reedsburg, Rock Springs, La Farge, Gays Mills, Milford, Jefferson, Fort Atkinson, Janesville, and Beloit. Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles were generated for the nine communities in a geographic information system by combining flood high-water marks with available 1-10-meter resolution digital-elevation-model data. The high-water marks used in the maps were a combination of those surveyed during the June flood by communities, counties, and Federal agencies and hundreds of additional marks surveyed in August by the USGS. The flood maps and profiles outline the extent and depth of flooding through the communities and are being used in ongoing (as of November 2008) flood response and recovery efforts by local, county, State, and Federal agencies.

Flood of September 2008 in Northwestern Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fowler, Kathleen K.; Kim, Moon H.; Menke, Chad D.; Arvin, Donald V.

2010-01-01

During September 12-15, 2008, rainfall ranging from 2 to more than 11 inches fell on northwestern Indiana. The rainfall resulted in extensive flooding on many streams within the Lake Michigan and Kankakee River Basins during September 12-18, causing two deaths, evacuation of hundreds of residents, and millions of dollars of damage to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, six counties in northwestern Indiana were declared Federal disaster areas. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages at four locations recorded new record peak streamflows as a result of the heavy rainfall. Peak-gage-height data, peak-streamflow data, annual exceedance probabilities, and recurrence intervals are tabulated in this report for 10 USGS streamgages in northwestern Indiana. Recurrence intervals of flood-peak streamflows were estimated to be greater than 100 years at six streamgages. Because flooding was particularly severe in the communities of Munster, Dyer, Hammond, Highland, Gary, Lake Station, Hobart, Schererville, Merrillville, Michiana Shores, and Portage, high-water-park data collected after the flood were tabulated for those communities. Flood peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for selected streams were made in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with the highest resolution digital elevation model data available.

Physically-based extreme flood frequency with stochastic storm transposition and paleoflood data on large watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, John F.; Julien, Pierre Y.; Velleux, Mark L.

2014-03-01

Traditionally, deterministic flood procedures such as the Probable Maximum Flood have been used for critical infrastructure design. Some Federal agencies now use hydrologic risk analysis to assess potential impacts of extreme events on existing structures such as large dams. Extreme flood hazard estimates and distributions are needed for these efforts, with very low annual exceedance probabilities (⩽10-4) (return periods >10,000 years). An integrated data-modeling hydrologic hazard framework for physically-based extreme flood hazard estimation is presented. Key elements include: (1) a physically-based runoff model (TREX) coupled with a stochastic storm transposition technique; (2) hydrometeorological information from radar and an extreme storm catalog; and (3) streamflow and paleoflood data for independently testing and refining runoff model predictions at internal locations. This new approach requires full integration of collaborative work in hydrometeorology, flood hydrology and paleoflood hydrology. An application on the 12,000 km2 Arkansas River watershed in Colorado demonstrates that the size and location of extreme storms are critical factors in the analysis of basin-average rainfall frequency and flood peak distributions. Runoff model results are substantially improved by the availability and use of paleoflood nonexceedance data spanning the past 1000 years at critical watershed locations.

Low cost, multiscale and multi-sensor application for flooded area mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordan, Daniele; Notti, Davide; Villa, Alfredo; Zucca, Francesco; Calò, Fabiana; Pepe, Antonio; Dutto, Furio; Pari, Paolo; Baldo, Marco; Allasia, Paolo

2018-05-01

Flood mapping and estimation of the maximum water depth are essential elements for the first damage evaluation, civil protection intervention planning and detection of areas where remediation is needed. In this work, we present and discuss a methodology for mapping and quantifying flood severity over floodplains. The proposed methodology considers a multiscale and multi-sensor approach using free or low-cost data and sensors. We applied this method to the November 2016 Piedmont (northwestern Italy) flood. We first mapped the flooded areas at the basin scale using free satellite data from low- to medium-high-resolution from both the SAR (Sentinel-1, COSMO-Skymed) and multispectral sensors (MODIS, Sentinel-2). Using very- and ultra-high-resolution images from the low-cost aerial platform and remotely piloted aerial system, we refined the flooded zone and detected the most damaged sector. The presented method considers both urbanised and non-urbanised areas. Nadiral images have several limitations, in particular in urbanised areas, where the use of terrestrial images solved this limitation. Very- and ultra-high-resolution images were processed with structure from motion (SfM) for the realisation of 3-D models. These data, combined with an available digital terrain model, allowed us to obtain maps of the flooded area, maximum high water area and damaged infrastructures.

The hurricane-flood-landslide continuum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Negri, A.J.; Burkardt, N.; Golden, J.H.; Halverson, J.B.; Huffman, G.J.; Larsen, M.C.; McGinley, J.A.; Updike, R.G.; Verdin, J.P.; Wieczorek, G.F.

2005-01-01

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the US Geological Survey (USGS), as well as other government agencies and academic institutions convened in San Juan, Puerto Rico, at a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The purpose of the HFLC is to develop and integrate the multidisciplinary tools needed to issue regional guidance products for floods and landslide associated with major tropical rain systems with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can notify vulnerable populations and protect infrastructure. The workshop sought to initiate discussion among these agencies about their highly complementary capabilities, and to establish a framework to leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed, it could be adapted for use in regions that have a high frequency of tropical disturbances.

Investing in soils as an infrastructure to maintain and enhance food water and carbon services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Jessica

2017-04-01

Soils are a life support system for global society and our planet. In addition to providing the vast majority of our food; soils regulate water quality and quantity reducing the risk of floods, droughts and pollution; and as the largest store of carbon in the earth system they are critical to climate change. By providing these multiple essential services, soils act a natural form of infrastructure that is critical to supporting both rural and urban communities and economies. Can natural infrastructure and natural capital concepts be used to motivate and enable investment and regulation of soils for purposes such as soil carbon sequestration? What scientific knowledge and tools would we need to support soil infrastructure decision making - in policy arenas and elsewhere? This poster will present progress from a new research project supported by the UK research council (EP/N030532/1) that addresses these questions.

Spatial-temporal fluvial morphology analysis in the Quelite river: It's impact on communication systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Judith; Gracia, Jesús

2012-01-01

SummaryDuring 2008 and 2009 heavy rainfall took place around the Mazatlan County in the Sinaloa state, Mexico, with a return period (Tr) between 50 and 100 years. As a result, the region and its infrastructure, such as the railways and highways (designed for a Tr = 20 years) were severely exposed to floods and, as a consequence damage caused by debris and sediments dragged into the channel. One of the highest levels of damage to the infrastructure was observed in the columns of Quelite River railway's bridge. This is catastrophic as the railway is very important for trade within the state and also among other states in Mexico and in the USA. In order to understand the impact of the flooding and to avoid the rail system being damaged it is necessary to analyse how significant the changes in the river channel have been. This analysis looks at the definition of the main channel and its floodplain as a result of the sediment variability, not only at the bridge area, but also upstream and downstream. The Quelite River study considers the integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing data to map, recognise and assess the spatio-temporal change channel morphology. This increases the effectiveness of using different types of geospatial data with in situ measurements such as hydrological data. Thus, this paper is an assessment of a 20 years study period carried out using historical Landsat images and aerial photographs as well as recent Spot images. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of local topography and flow volumes were also used. The results show the Quelite River is an active river with a high suspended sediment load and migration of meanders associated to heavy rainfall. The river also has several deep alluvial floodplain channels which modified the geometry and other morphological characteristics of the channel in the downstream direction. After the identification of the channel changes, their causes and solutions to control, the channel migration and the dynamics structure, a river management plan was projected not only to protect the bridge but also to provide a flood risk awareness in order to reduce the social-economical impact during a flood event.

Multi-objective sustainable river management: balancing flood control, bio-pysical restoration and socio-economic factors in a Scottish river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moir, H.; Bowles, C.; Campbell, C.; Sawyer, A.; Comins, L.; Werritty, A.

2010-12-01

The sustainable management of river corridors requires an understanding of the linkages between geomorphic, hydrologic, ecologic and socio-economic factors across a hierarchy of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, in order to be genuinely sustainable, management must ideally be set within a catchment/watershed context. However, in practice, this rarely occurs due to obstacles imposed by fragmented land ownership/governance and an incomplete understanding of bio-physical process linkages. We present our experience on a project with the goal of optimising physical objectives at the catchment scale within a framework influenced by environmental legislation and conflicting land-use pressures. The project was carried out on the Eddleston Water in the Scottish Borders and had the primary objective of providing sustainable flood risk management to settlements on the water course while also providing ecological benefit to the river corridor. These co-objectives had to be met while considering the constraints imposed by land-use (predominantly arable agriculture) and transport infrastructure on the floodplain. The Eddleston Water has been heavily impacted by many human activities for over 200 years although a modified upland drainage, markedly canalised main-stem channel and floodplain disconnection are most significant to present-day physical and ecological processes. Catchment-scale restoration plans aim to restore broad-scale hydrological processes in conjunction with re-naturalisation of the river corridor at the reach-scale (including floodbank set-back, floodplain reconnection, regeneration of riparian vegetation, large wood placement). In addition, these measures also had to accommodate the objective of sustainable flood risk management, through the combination of a re-naturalised run-off regime and the encouragement of floodplain water storage. We present the output from 1D and 2D hydraulic models of a 1km stretch of the Eddleston Water that jointly assesses the benefit to flood hydrograph attenuation and bio-physical processes of a suite of restoration designs within the floodplain. Although the models produced an optimised design based on these environmental objectives, the ‘real world’ situation of constraints imposed by ‘socio-economic’ factors (particularly agricultural and urban infrastructure pressures) subsequently modified this. In this way the project demonstrated the compromises that have to be made in implementing these type of idealised physical objectives.

Epic Flooding in Georgia, 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.; McCallum, Brian E.

2010-01-01

Metropolitan Atlanta-September 2009 Floods The epic floods experienced in the Atlanta area in September 2009 were extremely rare. Eighteen streamgages in the Metropolitan Atlanta area had flood magnitudes much greater than the estimated 0.2-percent (500-year) annual exceedance probability. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reported that 23 counties in Georgia were declared disaster areas due to this flood and that 16,981 homes and 3,482 businesses were affected by floodwaters. Ten lives were lost in the flood. The total estimated damages exceed $193 million (H.E. Longenecker, Federal Emergency Management Agency, written commun., November 2009). On Sweetwater Creek near Austell, Ga., just north of Interstate 20, the peak stage was more than 6 feet higher than the estimated peak stage of the 0.2-percent (500-year) flood. Flood magnitudes in Cobb County on Sweetwater, Butler, and Powder Springs Creeks greatly exceeded the estimated 0.2-percent (500-year) floods for these streams. In Douglas County, the Dog River at Ga. Highway 5 near Fairplay had a peak stage nearly 20 feet higher than the estimated peak stage of the 0.2-percent (500-year) flood. On the Chattahoochee River, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gage at Vinings reached the highest level recorded in the past 81 years. Gwinnett, De Kalb, Fulton, and Rockdale Counties also had record flooding.South Georgia March and April 2009 FloodsThe March and April 2009 floods in South Georgia were smaller in magnitude than the September floods but still caused significant damage. No lives were lost in this flood. Approximately $60 million in public infrastructure damage occurred to roads, culverts, bridges and a water treatment facility (Joseph T. McKinney, Federal Emergency Management Agency, written commun., July 2009). Flow at the Satilla River near Waycross, exceeded the 0.5-percent (200-year) flood. Flows at seven other stations in South Georgia exceeded the 1-percent (100-year) flood.

Earth Observations taken by the Expedition 13 crew

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-09-05

ISS013-E-77351 (5 Sept. 2006) --- Floods in the Volga Delta, Russia are featured in this image photographed by an Expedition 13 crewmember on the International Space Station. This close-up view zooms in on a shipping channel in the western part of the delta. The straight channel is periodically dredged, and the dredge spoils are piled along the edge of the channel in mounds. Surrounding wetlands are partially inundated. Flood waters with muddy sediment stream from the distributaries along channel, producing long streamers along the flow direction. This image was taken a few days after heavy rains in early September 2006 flooded parts of Russia to the north, and captures the flood waters emptying into the Caspian Sea. Since 1978, the Caspian Sea level has risen over 2 meters, submerging valuable wetland habitats, flooding coastlines and both agricultural land and industrial infrastructure. Maintaining channels and coastal developments, and preserving marine and land natural habitats, have become a struggle for the nations surrounding the Caspian. Shallow coastlines like the Volga Delta are at particular risk due to the rising sea level.

Coupled Land-Atmosphere Dynamics Govern Long Duration Floods: A Pilot Study in Missouri River Basin Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najibi, N.; Lu, M.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Long duration floods cause substantial damages and prolonged interruptions to water resource facilities and critical infrastructure. We present a novel generalized statistical and physical based model for flood duration with a deeper understanding of dynamically coupled nexus of the land surface wetness, effective atmospheric circulation and moisture transport/release. We applied the model on large reservoirs in the Missouri River Basin. The results indicate that the flood duration is not only a function of available moisture in the air, but also the antecedent condition of the blocking system of atmospheric pressure, resulting in enhanced moisture convergence, as well as the effectiveness of moisture condensation process leading to release. Quantifying these dynamics with a two-layer climate informed Bayesian multilevel model, we explain more than 80% variations in flood duration. The model considers the complex interaction between moisture transport, synoptic-to-large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, and the antecedent wetness condition in the basin. Our findings suggest that synergy between a large low-pressure blocking system and a higher rate of divergent wind often triggers a long duration flood, and the prerequisite for moisture supply to trigger such event is moderate, which is more associated with magnitude than duration. In turn, this condition causes an extremely long duration flood if the surface wetness rate advancing to the flood event was already increased.

Perceptions of Risk and Vulnerability Following Exposure to a Major Natural Disaster: The Calgary Flood of 2013.

PubMed

Tanner, Alexa; Árvai, Joseph

2018-03-01

Many studies have examined the general public's flood risk perceptions in the aftermath of local and regional flooding. However, relatively few studies have focused on large-scale events that affect tens of thousands of people within an urban center. Similarly, in spite of previous research on flood risks, unresolved questions persist regarding the variables that might influence perceptions of risk and vulnerability, along with management preferences. In light of the opportunities presented by these knowledge gaps, the research reported here examined public perceptions of flood risk and vulnerability, and management preferences, within the city of Calgary in the aftermath of extensive flooding in 2013. Our findings, which come from an online survey of residents, reveal that direct experience with flooding is not a differentiating factor for risk perceptions when comparing evacuees with nonevacuees who might all experience future risks. However, we do find that judgments about vulnerability-as a function of how people perceive physical distance-do differ according to one's evacuation experience. Our results also indicate that concern about climate change is an important predictor of flood risk perceptions, as is trust in government risk managers. In terms of mitigation preferences, our results reveal differences in support for large infrastructure projects based on whether respondents feel they might actually benefit from them. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe.

PubMed

Forzieri, Giovanni; Bianchi, Alessandra; Silva, Filipe Batista E; Marin Herrera, Mario A; Leblois, Antoine; Lavalle, Carlo; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Feyen, Luc

2018-01-01

Extreme climatic events are likely to become more frequent owing to global warming. This may put additional stress on critical infrastructures with typically long life spans. However, little is known about the risks of multiple climate extremes on critical infrastructures at regional to continental scales. Here we show how single- and multi-hazard damage to energy, transport, industrial, and social critical infrastructures in Europe are likely to develop until the year 2100 under the influence of climate change. We combine a set of high-resolution climate hazard projections, a detailed representation of physical assets in various sectors and their sensitivity to the hazards, and more than 1100 records of losses from climate extremes in a prognostic modelling framework. We find that damages could triple by the 2020s, multiply six-fold by mid-century, and amount to more than 10 times present damage of €3.4 billion per year by the end of the century due only to climate change. Damage from heatwaves, droughts in southern Europe, and coastal floods shows the most dramatic rise, but the risks of inland flooding, windstorms, and forest fires will also increase in Europe, with varying degrees of change across regions. Economic losses are highest for the industry, transport, and energy sectors. Future losses will not be incurred equally across Europe. Southern and south-eastern European countries will be most affected and, as a result, will probably require higher costs of adaptation. The findings of this study could aid in prioritizing regional investments to address the unequal burden of impacts and differences in adaptation capacities across Europe.

Sequential planning of flood protection infrastructure under limited historic flood record and climate change uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-04-01

Flood protection is often designed to safeguard people and property following regulations and standards, which specify a target design flood protection level, such as the 100-year flood level prescribed in Germany (DWA, 2011). In practice, the magnitude of such an event is only known within a range of uncertainty, which is caused by limited historic records and uncertain climate change impacts, among other factors (Hall & Solomatine, 2008). As more observations and improved climate projections become available in the future, the design flood estimate changes and the capacity of the flood protection may be deemed insufficient at a future point in time. This problem can be mitigated by the implementation of flexible flood protection systems (that can easily be adjusted in the future) and/or by adding an additional reserve to the flood protection, i.e. by applying a safety factor to the design. But how high should such a safety factor be? And how much should the decision maker be willing to pay to make the system flexible, i.e. what is the Value of Flexibility (Špačková & Straub, 2017)? We propose a decision model that identifies cost-optimal decisions on flood protection capacity in the face of uncertainty (Dittes et al. 2017). It considers sequential adjustments of the protection system during its lifetime, taking into account its flexibility. The proposed framework is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis, using Decision Trees and Markov Decision Processes, and is fully quantitative. It can include a wide range of uncertainty components such as uncertainty associated with limited historic record or uncertain climate or socio-economic change. It is shown that since flexible systems are less costly to adjust when flood estimates are changing, they justify initially lower safety factors. Investigation on the Value of Flexibility (VoF) demonstrates that VoF depends on the type and degree of uncertainty, on the learning effect (i.e. kind and quality of information that we will gather in the future) and on the formulation of the optimization problem (risk-based vs. rule-based approach). The application of the framework is demonstrated on catchments in Germany. References: DWA (Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft Abwasser und Abfall eV.) 2011. Merkblatt DWA-M 507-1: Deiche an Fließgewässern. (A. Bieberstein, Ed.). Hennef: DWA Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser und Abfall e. V. Hall, J., & Solomatine, D. 2008. A framework for uncertainty analysis in flood risk management decisions. International Journal of River Basin Management, 6(2), 85-98. http://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635339 Špačková, O. & Straub, D. 2017. Long-term adaption decisions via fully and partially observable Markov decision processes. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure. In print.

Characteristics of Non-Cohesive Embankment Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Z. M.; Wahab, A. K. A.; Ismail, Z.; Amerudin, S.

2018-04-01

Embankments are important infrastructure built to provide flood control. They also present risks to property and life due to their potential to fail and cause catastrophic flooding. To mitigate these risks, authorities and regulators need to carefully analyse and inspect dams to identify potential failure modes and protect against them. This paper presents morphology of an embankment study and its sediment behaviour of different grain sizes after the embankment fails. A few experiments were carried out for the embankment size of 1V:3H with different sediment grain sizes; medium and coarser sand. The embankment material used is non-cohesive soil with the embankment height of 0.1 m. The embankment is tested with inflows rate of Q = 0.8 L/s. Experimental results showed the peak discharge for the same inflow rate is affected by the shape of embankment breached. The peak discharge of medium grain size of the embankment is highest, which gave 3.63 L/s in comparison with a coarser embankment. This concludes that the embankment morphology patterns are dissimilar to each other. The flow and dimension of embankment are shown to influence the characteristics of embankment failure.

Automated Mapping of Flood Events in the Mississippi River Basin Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartkovich, Mercedes; Baldwin-Zook, Helen Blue; Cruz, Dashiell; McVey, Nicholas; Ploetz, Chris; Callaway, Olivia

2017-01-01

The Mississippi River Basin is the fourth largest drainage basin in the world, and is susceptible to multi-level flood events caused by heavy precipitation, snow melt, and changes in water table levels. Conducting flood analysis during periods of disaster is a challenging endeavor for NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Geological Survey's Hazards Data Distribution Systems (USGS HDDS) due to heavily-involved research and lack of manpower. During this project, an automated script was generated that performs high-level flood analysis to relieve the workload for end-users. The script incorporated Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) tiles and utilized computer-learning techniques to generate accurate water extent maps. The script referenced the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-water mask to isolate areas of flood induced waters. These areas were overlaid onto the National Land Cover Database's (NLCD) land cover data, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScan data, and Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data (HIFLD) to determine the classification of areas impacted and the population density affected by flooding. The automated algorithm was initially tested on the September 2016 flood event that occurred in Upper Mississippi River Basin, and was then further tested on multiple flood events within the Mississippi River Basin. This script allows end users to create their own flood probability and impact maps for disaster mitigation and recovery efforts.

Flood Losses Associated with Winter Storms in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.; Shimkus, C.

2015-12-01

Winter storms pose a number of hazards to coastal communities in the U.S. Northeast including heavy rain, snow, strong wind, cold temperatures, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions in property damages from one storm alone. This study addresses the impacts of winter storms from 2001 - 2012 on coastal counties in the U.S. Northeast and underscores the significant economic consequences extreme winter storms have on property. The analysis on the types of hazards (floods, strong wind, snow, etc.) and associated damage from the National Climatic Data Center Storm Events Database indicates that floods were responsible for the highest damages. This finding suggests that winter storm vulnerability could grow in the future as precipitation intensity increases and sea level rise exacerbate flood losses. Flood loss maps are constructed based on damage amount, which can be compared to the flood exposure maps constructed by the NOAA Office of Coastal Management. Interesting agreements and discrepancies exist between the two methods, which warrant further examination. Furthermore, flood losses often came from storms characterized as heavy precipitation storms and strong surge storms, and sometimes both, illustrating the compounding effect of flood risks in the region. While New Jersey counties experienced the most damage per unit area, there is no discernable connection between population density and damage amount, which suggests that societal impacts may rely less on population characteristics and more on infrastructure types and property values, which vary throughout the region.

Impact of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise on Stormwater Design and Reoccurring Flooding Problems in the Hampton Roads Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

The information contained in this report is organized as three separate but related research studies. Collectively, these studies investigate the impact of climate change and sea level rise on transportation infrastructure within portions of the Hamp...

Estimating Peak-Flow Frequency Statistics for Selected Gaged and Ungaged Sites in Naturally Flowing Streams and Rivers in Idaho

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are needed by Federal, regional, State, and local infrastructure designers and water-resource managers for the design of highway, road, and other bridge crossings of rivers, delineation of f...

Planning for Climate Change: Actions for the Army to Better Adapt to the Effects of Climate Change in 2030

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

hurricanes), increased desertification of semi-arid lands, and increased rain and flooding in wet areas. The condition of nations’ infrastructures... desertification or increased inundated terrain made ground maneuver and movement problematic. Ground transport for resupply to units would be risky

2010: Why is it flooding everywhere this year? Coincidence or a predictable climate phenomenon, and how can we respond? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2010-12-01

There are always droughts and floods. Sometimes, drought in a region begets a flood. Sometimes floods in a region reliably coincide with a drought in another specific region. In 2010, as floods unfolded simultaneously and sequentially in one region after another of the world, the media has asked whether there is a common cause, pointing the finger at anthropogenic climate change. Will floods end our civilization as climate changes? Or merely erase the Indus Valley civilization yet again? Floods have traditionally been considered the consequence of extreme, random, weather extremes, and much of the prediction effort has focused on near real term meteorological and land surface hydrological forecasting. While very useful, these typically offer a relatively short lead time. Exceptions are floods in large rivers such as the Mississippi, the Indus and the Yangtze that have long transit times to the outlet. Today, climatic aspects of floods, specifically, the spatial structure of fields of droughts and floods, the associated ocean-atmosphere circulation conditions and precursors, as well as the recurrence characteristics of these precursors are beginning to be understood. I offer an early review of how these analyses are emerging, and of examples of selected regions in the world where an empirical flood risk analysis that is climate informed is feasible in both a correlative and a predictive mode. Novel risk management products, that combine organizational planning, infrastructure and financial risk management tools at a variety of institutional and spatial scales are also emerging. Potential global socio-economic impacts of unmitigated concurrent floods/droughts are highlighted. A framework for how these can be applied to effect dynamic risk management and adaptation in a changing world is presented.

A MODIS-based automated flood monitoring system for southeast asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahamed, A.; Bolten, J. D.

2017-09-01

Flood disasters in Southeast Asia result in significant loss of life and economic damage. Remote sensing information systems designed to spatially and temporally monitor floods can help governments and international agencies formulate effective disaster response strategies during a flood and ultimately alleviate impacts to population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Recent destructive flood events in the Lower Mekong River Basin occurred in 2000, 2011, 2013, and 2016 (http://ffw.mrcmekong.org/historical_rec.htm, April 24, 2017). The large spatial distribution of flooded areas and lack of proper gauge data in the region makes accurate monitoring and assessment of impacts of floods difficult. Here, we discuss the utility of applying satellite-based Earth observations for improving flood inundation monitoring over the flood-prone Lower Mekong River Basin. We present a methodology for determining near real-time surface water extent associated with current and historic flood events by training surface water classifiers from 8-day, 250-m Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data spanning the length of the MODIS satellite record. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signature of permanent water bodies (MOD44W; Carroll et al., 2009) is used to train surface water classifiers which are applied to a time period of interest. From this, an operational nowcast flood detection component is produced using twice daily imagery acquired at 3-h latency which performs image compositing routines to minimize cloud cover. Case studies and accuracy assessments against radar-based observations for historic flood events are presented. The customizable system has been transferred to regional organizations and near real-time derived surface water products are made available through a web interface platform. Results highlight the potential of near real-time observation and impact assessment systems to serve as effective decision support tools for governments, international agencies, and disaster responders.

Estimating the long-term historic evolution of exposure to flooding of coastal populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, A. J.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Wadey, M. P.

2015-06-01

Coastal managers face the task of assessing and managing flood risk. This requires knowledge of the area of land, the number of people, properties and other infrastructure potentially affected by floods. Such analyses are usually static; i.e. they only consider a snapshot of the current situation. This misses the opportunity to learn about the role of key drivers of historical changes in flood risk, such as development and population rise in the coastal flood plain, as well as sea-level rise. In this paper, we develop and apply a method to analyse the temporal evolution of residential population exposure to coastal flooding. It uses readily available data in a GIS environment. We examine how population and sea-level change have modified exposure over two centuries in two neighbouring coastal sites: Portsea and Hayling Islands on the UK south coast. The analysis shows that flood exposure changes as a result of increases in population, changes in coastal population density and sea level rise. The results indicate that to date, population change is the dominant driver of the increase in exposure to flooding in the study sites, but climate change may outweigh this in the future. A full analysis of changing flood risk is not possible as data on historic defences and wider vulnerability are not available. Hence, the historic evolution of flood exposure is as close as we can get to a historic evolution of flood risk. The method is applicable anywhere that suitable floodplain geometry, sea level and population data sets are available and could be widely applied, and will help inform coastal managers of the time evolution in coastal flood drivers.

Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates.

PubMed

Ben Dor, Yoav; Armon, Moshe; Ahlborn, Marieke; Morin, Efrat; Erel, Yigal; Brauer, Achim; Schwab, Markus Julius; Tjallingii, Rik; Enzel, Yehouda

2018-05-31

Floods comprise a dominant hydroclimatic phenomenon in aridlands with significant implications for humans, infrastructure, and landscape evolution worldwide. The study of short-term hydroclimatic variability, such as floods, and its forecasting for episodes of changing climate therefore poses a dominant challenge for the scientific community, and predominantly relies on modeling. Testing the capabilities of climate models to properly describe past and forecast future short-term hydroclimatic phenomena such as floods requires verification against suitable geological archives. However, determining flood frequency during changing climate is rarely achieved, because modern and paleoflood records, especially in arid regions, are often too short or discontinuous. Thus, coeval independent climate reconstructions and paleoflood records are required to further understand the impact of climate change on flood generation. Dead Sea lake levels reflect the mean centennial-millennial hydrological budget in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, floods in the large watersheds draining directly into the Dead Sea, are linked to short-term synoptic circulation patterns reflecting hydroclimatic variability. These two very different records are combined in this study to resolve flood frequency during opposing mean climates. Two 700-year-long, seasonally-resolved flood time series constructed from late Pleistocene Dead Sea varved sediments, coeval with significant Dead Sea lake level variations are reported. These series demonstrate that episodes of rising lake levels are characterized by higher frequency of floods, shorter intervals between years of multiple floods, and asignificantly larger number of years that experienced multiple floods. In addition, floods cluster into intervals of intense flooding, characterized by 75% and 20% increased frequency above their respective background frequencies during rising and falling lake-levels, respectively. Mean centennial precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean is therefore coupled with drastic changes in flood frequencies. These drastic changes in flood frequencies are linked to changes in the track, depth, and frequency of mid-latitude eastern Mediterranean cyclones, determining mean climatology resulting in wetter and drier regional climatic episodes.

Grid infrastructure for automatic processing of SAR data for flood applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kussul, Natalia; Skakun, Serhiy; Shelestov, Andrii

2010-05-01

More and more geosciences applications are being put on to the Grids. Due to the complexity of geosciences applications that is caused by complex workflow, the use of computationally intensive environmental models, the need of management and integration of heterogeneous data sets, Grid offers solutions to tackle these problems. Many geosciences applications, especially those related to the disaster management and mitigations require the geospatial services to be delivered in proper time. For example, information on flooded areas should be provided to corresponding organizations (local authorities, civil protection agencies, UN agencies etc.) no more than in 24 h to be able to effectively allocate resources required to mitigate the disaster. Therefore, providing infrastructure and services that will enable automatic generation of products based on the integration of heterogeneous data represents the tasks of great importance. In this paper we present Grid infrastructure for automatic processing of synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) satellite images to derive flood products. In particular, we use SAR data acquired by ESA's ENVSAT satellite, and neural networks to derive flood extent. The data are provided in operational mode from ESA rolling archive (within ESA Category-1 grant). We developed a portal that is based on OpenLayers frameworks and provides access point to the developed services. Through the portal the user can define geographical region and search for the required data. Upon selection of data sets a workflow is automatically generated and executed on the resources of Grid infrastructure. For workflow execution and management we use Karajan language. The workflow of SAR data processing consists of the following steps: image calibration, image orthorectification, image processing with neural networks, topographic effects removal, geocoding and transformation to lat/long projection, and visualisation. These steps are executed by different software, and can be executed by different resources of the Grid system. The resulting geospatial services are available in various OGC standards such as KML and WMS. Currently, the Grid infrastructure integrates the resources of several geographically distributed organizations, in particular: Space Research Institute NASU-NSAU (Ukraine) with deployed computational and storage nodes based on Globus Toolkit 4 (htpp://www.globus.org) and gLite 3 (http://glite.web.cern.ch) middleware, access to geospatial data and a Grid portal; Institute of Cybernetics of NASU (Ukraine) with deployed computational and storage nodes (SCIT-1/2/3 clusters) based on Globus Toolkit 4 middleware and access to computational resources (approximately 500 processors); Center of Earth Observation and Digital Earth Chinese Academy of Sciences (CEODE-CAS, China) with deployed computational nodes based on Globus Toolkit 4 middleware and access to geospatial data (approximately 16 processors). We are currently adding new geospatial services based on optical satellite data, namely MODIS. This work is carried out jointly with the CEODE-CAS. Using workflow patterns that were developed for SAR data processing we are building new workflows for optical data processing.

Stormwater Infrastructure in the Los Angeles Region: Are Regulatory Drivers and Opportunism the Best Approach to Clean Water?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mika, K.; Gold, M.

2016-12-01

The Los Angeles region has invested nearly a billion dollars in stormwater infrastructure projects over the last 15 years. The primary drivers for these projects have been regulatory requirements under the Los Angeles County MS4 permit and Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for over 150 impaired water bodies in the region. In addition, voters in the state of California have approved five separate water bonds over the last 15 years totaling nearly 21 billion. The City of Los Angeles approved a 500 million stormwater bond in 2004 to construct best management practices (BMPs) to help the city comply with water quality standards. There have also been numerous comprehensive Low Impact Development (LID) ordinances approved in the region that are designed to ensure that new and redevelopment capture for reuse or infiltrate 100% of the runoff generated from the 85th percentile storm. This presentation will overview an assessment of decision-making related to the funding of stormwater BMPs in the region. Specific examples of constructed BMPs, including their performance for meeting water quality standards, will be provided. Among the shortcomings of relying on a bond funding approach to new stormwater infrastructure is a California statutory prohibition on using bond funds for BMP operations and maintenance. The advantages of a systematic structural BMP sizing, designing and siting approach based on optimizing multiple beneficial uses (water quality, flood control, water supply, habitat and recreation) across watersheds or subwatersheds will also be discussed. Integration of stormwater infrastructure construction with transportation improvement projects, as well as building retrofit upon sale requirements, will greatly expedite regional transformation to green stormwater infrastructure.

Providing Flood Risk Science for Resilient Transportation Infrastructure Decisions in Connecticut

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, R.; Cifuentes-Lorenzen, A.; Kooris, D.; O'Donnell, J.

2017-12-01

The Connecticut Institute for Resilience and Climate Adaptation (CIRCA) provides actionable science to accelerate adaptation and resilience strategies for Connecticut's inland and coastal waterways communities. Connecticut's coastal area has some of the most valuable real estate in the United States due to the Metro North and Shoreline East commuter rail line that connects all 24 coastal municipalities through transit hubs to the New York City metropolitan region. On its way to NY, the rail runs through neighborhoods and coastal marshes and crosses local and state roads. During coastal storms and increasingly at high tides as the sea level rises, the rail line may act like a berm, but also cuts off coastal neighborhoods from the upland. When it crosses a road in a marsh setting, the clearance restriction also severely limits communities' options for moving or elevating the roadway. These flooded roadways and vulnerable transit hubs are already a challenge for municipalities and will continue to be in the future. However, given scarce resources, it is not sufficient to simply know that they are vulnerable using existing low resolution mapping tools. Communities need site-specific, exact estimates of frequency of flooding, incorporating future sea level rise, to make cost determinations and accurately project the useful life of their investment. To address this need CIRCA developed high-resolution dynamic coastal flood risk models and partnered with municipal staff, regional planning bodies and the state to apply them to infrastructure decision-making. We will present three case studies of this approach: 1) the implementation of the US HUD National Disaster Resilience Competition pilot project of road elevation and berm construction in partnership with the Department of Housing and the City of Bridgeport; 2) the City of New London's first rail and ferry transit hub vulnerability assessment for sea level rise and storms and 3) the flooding frequency of a state road connecting the coastal towns of Branford and Guilford.

Flood Management Enhancement Using Remotely Sensed Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanowski, Gregory J.

1997-01-01

SENTAR, Inc., entered into a cooperative agreement with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in December 1994. The intent of the NASA Cooperative Agreement was to stimulate broad public use, via the Internet, of the very large remote sensing databases maintained by NASA and other agencies, thus stimulating U.S. economic growth, improving the quality of life, and contributing to the implementation of a National Information Infrastructure. SENTAR headed a team of collaborating organizations in meeting the goals of this project. SENTAR's teammates were the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC), the U.S. Army Space and Strategic Defense Command (USASSDC), and the Alabama Emergency Management Agency (EMA). For this cooperative agreement, SENTAR and its teammates accessed remotely sensed data in the Distributed Active Archive Centers, and other available sources, for use in enhancing the present capabilities for flood disaster management by the Alabama EMA. The project developed a prototype software system for addressing prediction, warning, and damage assessment for floods, though it currently focuses on assessment. The objectives of the prototype system were to demonstrate the added value of remote sensing data for emergency management operations during floods and the ability of the Internet to provide the primary communications medium for the system. To help achieve these objectives, SENTAR developed an integrated interface for the emergency operations staff to simplify acquiring and manipulating source data and data products for use in generating new data products. The prototype system establishes a systems infrastructure designed to expand to include future flood-related data and models or to include other disasters with their associated remote sensing data requirements and distributed data sources. This report covers the specific work performed during the seventh, and final, milestone period of the project, which began on 1 October 1996 and ended on 31 January 1997. In addition, it provides a summary of the entire project.

Development of a flash flood warning system based on real-time radar data and process-based erosion modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schindewolf, Marcus; Kaiser, Andreas; Buchholtz, Arno; Schmidt, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Extreme rainfall events and resulting flash floods led to massive devastations in Germany during spring 2016. The study presented aims on the development of a early warning system, which allows the simulation and assessment of negative effects on infrastructure by radar-based heavy rainfall predictions, serving as input data for the process-based soil loss and deposition model EROSION 3D. Our approach enables a detailed identification of runoff and sediment fluxes in agricultural used landscapes. In a first step, documented historical events were analyzed concerning the accordance of measured radar rainfall and large scale erosion risk maps. A second step focused on a small scale erosion monitoring via UAV of source areas of heavy flooding events and a model reconstruction of the processes involved. In all examples damages were caused to local infrastructure. Both analyses are promising in order to detect runoff and sediment delivering areas even in a high temporal and spatial resolution. Results prove the important role of late-covering crops such as maize, sugar beet or potatoes in runoff generation. While e.g. winter wheat positively affects extensive runoff generation on undulating landscapes, massive soil loss and thus muddy flows are observed and depicted in model results. Future research aims on large scale model parameterization and application in real time, uncertainty estimation of precipitation forecast and interface developments.

Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Eugene; Jared, Alissa; Mahat, Vinod

The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitationmore » intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.« less

Evaluation of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood under Climate Change in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Rastogi, D.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Kabela, E.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Singh, N.; Preston, B. L.; Mei, R.

2016-12-01

Critical infrastructures are potentially vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events. Under a warming environment, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase enhancing the needs to more accurately quantify the risks due to climate change. In this study, we utilized an integrated modeling framework that includes the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and a high resolution distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) to simulate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) events over Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin. A total of 120 storms were selected to simulate moisture maximized PMP under different meteorological forcings, including historical storms driven by Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and baseline (1981-2010), near term future (2021-2050) and long term future (2071-2100) storms driven by Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) under Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 emission scenario. We also analyzed the sensitivity of PMF to various antecedent hydrologic conditions such as initial soil moisture conditions and tested different compulsive approaches. Overall, a statistical significant increase is projected for future PMP and PMF, mainly attributed to the increase of background air temperature. The ensemble of simulated PMP and PMF along with their sensitivity allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydro-climatic extreme events on critical energy-water infrastructures such as major hydropower dams and nuclear power plants.

Flood of April 2-3, 2005, Neversink River Basin, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suro, Thomas P.; Firda, Gary D.

2006-01-01

Heavy rain on April 2-3, 2005 produced rainfall amounts of 3 inches to almost 6 inches within a 36-hour period throughout the Delaware River basin. Major flooding occurred in the East and West Branches of the Delaware River and their tributaries, the main stem of the Delaware River and the Neversink River, a major tributary to the Delaware River. The resultant flooding damaged hundreds of homes, caused millions of dollars in damage to infrastructure in Orange and Sullivan Counties, and forced more than 1,000 residents to evacuate their homes. A total of 20 New York counties were declared Federal disaster areas. Some of the most extensive flooding occurred along the Neversink and Delaware Rivers in Orange and Sullivan Counties, New York. Disaster recovery assistance from the April 2005 flooding in New York stood at almost $35 million in 2005, at which time more than 3,400 New Yorkers had registered for Federal aid. All U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations on the Neversink River below the Neversink Reservoir recorded peak water-surface elevations higher than those recorded during the September 2004 flooding. Peak water-surface elevations at some study sites on the Neversink River exceeded the 500-year flood elevation as documented in flood-insurance studies by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Flood peaks at some long-term U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations were the highest ever recorded. Several U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations on the Delaware River also recorded peak water-surface elevations that exceeded those recorded during the September 2004 flooding.

Health impacts of floods.

PubMed

Du, Weiwei; FitzGerald, Gerard Joseph; Clark, Michele; Hou, Xiang-Yu

2010-01-01

Floods are the most common hazard to cause disasters and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. The impact of floods on the human community is related directly to the location and topography of the area, as well as human demographics and characteristics of the built environment. The aim of this study is to identify the health impacts of disasters and the underlying causes of health impacts associated with floods. A conceptual framework is developed that may assist with the development of a rational and comprehensive approach to prevention, mitigation, and management. This study involved an extensive literature review that located >500 references, which were analyzed to identify common themes, findings, and expert views. The findings then were distilled into common themes. The health impacts of floods are wide ranging, and depend on a number of factors. However, the health impacts of a particular flood are specific to the particular context. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, injuries, hypothermia, and animal bites. Health risks also are associated with the evacuation of patients, loss of health workers, and loss of health infrastructure including essential drugs and supplies. In the medium-term, infected wounds, complications of injury, poisoning, poor mental health, communicable diseases, and starvation are indirect effects of flooding. In the long-term, chronic disease, disability, poor mental health, and poverty-related diseases including malnutrition are the potential legacy. This article proposes a structured approach to the classification of the health impacts of floods and a conceptual framework that demonstrates the relationships between floods and the direct and indirect health consequences.

33 CFR 203.50 - Nonstructural alternatives to rehabilitation of flood control works.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... DISASTER PROCEDURES Rehabilitation Assistance for Flood Control Works Damaged by Flood or Coastal Storm... rehabilitation, repair, or restoration of flood control works damaged by floods or coastal storms. (b) Policy. (1...

A risk-based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, Ana; Vogel, Richard M.; Kirshen, Paul H.

2014-03-01

Traditional approaches to flood management in a nonstationary world begin with a null hypothesis test of "no trend" and its likelihood, with little or no attention given to the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. Concluding a trend exists when it does not, or rejecting a trend when it exists are known as type I and type II errors, respectively. Decision-makers are poorly served by statistical and/or decision methods that do not carefully consider both over- and under-preparation errors, respectively. Similarly, little attention is given to how to integrate uncertainty in our ability to detect trends into a flood management decision context. We show how trend hypothesis test results can be combined with an adaptation's infrastructure costs and damages avoided to provide a rational decision approach in a nonstationary world. The criterion of expected regret is shown to be a useful metric that integrates the statistical, economic, and hydrological aspects of the flood management problem in a nonstationary world.

Namibia Dashboard Enhancements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mandl, Daniel; Handy, Matthew

2014-01-01

The purpose of this presentation is for a Technical Interchange Meeting with the Namibia Hydrological Services (NHS) in Namibia. The meeting serves as a capacity building exercise. This presentation goes over existing software functionality developed in collaboration with NHS over the past five years called the Namibia Flood Dashboard. Furthermore, it outlines new functionality developed over the past year and future functionality that will be developed. The main purpose of the Dashboard is to assist in decision support for flood warning. The Namibia Flood Dashboard already exists online in a cloud environment and has been used in prototype mode for the past few years.Functionality in the Dashboard includes river gauge hydrographs, TRMM estimate rainfall, EO-1 flood maps, infrastructure maps and other related functions. Future functionality includes attempting to integrate interoperability standards and crowd-sourcing capability. To this end, we are adding OpenStreetMap compatibility and an Applications Program Interface (API) called a GeoSocial API to enable discovery and sharing of data products useful for decision support via social media.

Impact of intense rains and flooding on mercury riverine input to the coastal zone.

PubMed

Saniewska, Dominika; Bełdowska, Magdalena; Bełdowski, Jacek; Saniewski, Michał; Gębka, Karolina; Szubska, Marta; Wochna, Agnieszka

2018-02-01

The aim of the present research was to determine the impact of intense rains and flooding on mercury riverine input to the coastal zone. This study focused on four small rivers (Reda, Zagórska Struga, Płutnica, Gizdepka), typical of the Southern Baltic region, with no significant mercury sources. Samples were collected for 16months during average flow conditions and during selected meteorological events: floods, downpours, thaws and droughts. Results showed decreased retention of mercury during intense rainfalls, thus demonstrating mercury elution from the catchment. Floods and melting snow also have a tremendous impact on the outflow of mercury from the catchment. Development of urban infrastructure and farmlands increases the outflow of mercury from the catchment too, making such areas a significant source of mercury in the river. On the other hand, areas with natural character, predominated by forests, stimulate retention of mercury that reaches them through dry and wet atmospheric deposition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global sea-level rise is recognised, but flooding from anthropogenic land subsidence is ignored around northern Manila Bay, Philippines.

PubMed

Rodolfo, Kelvin S; Siringan, Fernando P

2006-03-01

Land subsidence resulting from excessive extraction of groundwater is particularly acute in East Asian countries. Some Philippine government sectors have begun to recognise that the sea-level rise of one to three millimetres per year due to global warming is a cause of worsening floods around Manila Bay, but are oblivious to, or ignore, the principal reason: excessive groundwater extraction is lowering the land surface by several centimetres to more than a decimetre per year. Such ignorance allows the government to treat flooding as a lesser problem that can be mitigated through large infrastructural projects that are both ineffective and vulnerable to corruption. Money would be better spent on preventing the subsidence by reducing groundwater pumping and moderating population growth and land use, but these approaches are politically and psychologically unacceptable. Even if groundwater use is greatly reduced and enlightened land-use practices are initiated, natural deltaic subsidence and global sea-level rise will continue to aggravate flooding, although at substantially lower rates.

Downscaling GLOF Hazards: An in-depth look at the Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounce, D.; McKinney, D. C.; Lala, J.

2016-12-01

The Nepal Himalaya house a large number of glacial lakes that pose a flood hazard to downstream communities and infrastructure. The modeling of the entire process chain of these glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been advancing rapidly in recent years. The most common cause of failure is mass movement entering the glacial lake, which triggers a tsunami-like wave that breaches the terminal moraine and causes the ensuing downstream flood. Unfortunately, modeling the avalanche, the breach of the moraine, and the downstream flood requires a large amount of site-specific information and can be very labor-intensive. Therefore, these detailed models need to be paired with large-scale hazard assessments that identify the glacial lakes that are the biggest threat and the triggering events that threaten these lakes. This study discusses the merger of a large-scale, remotely-based hazard assessment with more detailed GLOF models to show how GLOF hazard modeling can be downscaled in the Nepal Himalaya.

Flood Hazard Mapping by Applying Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, K. Y.; Lee, J. Y.; Keum, H.; Kim, B. J.; Kim, T. H.

2017-12-01

There are lots of technical methods to integrate various factors for flood hazard mapping. The purpose of this study is to suggest the methodology of integrated flood hazard mapping using MCDM(Multi Criteria Decision Making). MCDM problems involve a set of alternatives that are evaluated on the basis of conflicting and incommensurate criteria. In this study, to apply MCDM to assessing flood risk, maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time are considered as criterion, and each applied elements are considered as alternatives. The scheme to find the efficient alternative closest to a ideal value is appropriate way to assess flood risk of a lot of element units(alternatives) based on various flood indices. Therefore, TOPSIS which is most commonly used MCDM scheme is adopted to create flood hazard map. The indices for flood hazard mapping(maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time) have uncertainty concerning simulation results due to various values according to flood scenario and topographical condition. These kind of ambiguity of indices can cause uncertainty of flood hazard map. To consider ambiguity and uncertainty of criterion, fuzzy logic is introduced which is able to handle ambiguous expression. In this paper, we made Flood Hazard Map according to levee breach overflow using the Fuzzy TOPSIS Technique. We confirmed the areas where the highest grade of hazard was recorded through the drawn-up integrated flood hazard map, and then produced flood hazard map can be compared them with those indicated in the existing flood risk maps. Also, we expect that if we can apply the flood hazard map methodology suggested in this paper even to manufacturing the current flood risk maps, we will be able to make a new flood hazard map to even consider the priorities for hazard areas, including more varied and important information than ever before. Keywords : Flood hazard map; levee break analysis; 2D analysis; MCDM; Fuzzy TOPSIS Acknowlegement This research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B079625-04) from Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Effects of Flood Control Strategies on Flood Resilience Under Sociohydrological Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, Kyungmin; Jeong, Hanseok; Sangwan, Nikhil; Yu, David J.

2018-04-01

A community capacity to cope with flood hazards, or community flood resilience, emerges from the interplay of hydrological and social processes. This interplay can be significantly influenced by the flood control strategy adopted by a society, i.e., how a society sets its desired flood protection level and strives to achieve this goal. And this interplay can be further complicated by rising land-sea level differences, seasonal water level fluctuations, and economic change. But not much research has been done on how various forms of flood control strategies affect human-flood interactions under these disturbances and therefore flood resilience in the long run. The current study is an effort to address these issues by developing a conceptual model of human-flood interaction mediated by flood control strategies. Our model extends the existing model of Yu et al. (2017), who investigated the flood resilience of a community-based flood protection system in coastal Bangladesh. The major extensions made in this study are inclusions of various forms of flood control strategies (both adaptive and nonadaptive ones), the challenge of rising land-sea level differences, and various high tide level scenarios generated from modifying the statistical variances and averages. Our results show that adaptive forms of flood control strategies tend to outperform nonadaptive ones for maintaining the model community's flood protection system. Adaptive strategies that dynamically adjust target flood protection levels through close monitoring of flood damages and social memories of flood risk can help the model community deal with various disturbances.

Bayesian Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Estimation at Ungauged Basins Using Climate Information and a Scaling Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, C. H.; Lall, U.

2010-12-01

Flood frequency statistical analysis most often relies on stationary assumptions, where distribution moments (e.g. mean, standard deviation) and associated flood quantiles do not change over time. In this sense, one expects that flood magnitudes and their frequency of occurrence will remain constant as observed in the historical information. However, evidence of inter-annual and decadal climate variability and anthropogenic change as well as an apparent increase in the number and magnitude of flood events across the globe have made the stationary assumption questionable. Here, we show how to estimate flood quantiles (e.g. 100-year flood) at ungauged basins without needing to consider stationarity. A statistical model based on the well known flow-area scaling law is proposed to estimate flood flows at ungauged basins. The slope and intercept scaling law coefficients are assumed time varying and a hierarchical Bayesian model is used to include climate information and reduce parameter uncertainties. Cross-validated results from 34 streamflow gauges located in a nested Basin in Brazil show that the proposed model is able to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged basins with remarkable skills compared with data based estimates using the full record. The model as developed in this work is also able to simulate sequences of flood flows considering global climate changes provided an appropriate climate index developed from the General Circulation Model is used as a predictor. The time varying flood frequency estimates can be used for pricing insurance models, and in a forecast mode for preparations for flooding, and finally, for timing infrastructure investments and location. Non-stationary 95% interval estimation for the 100-year Flood (shaded gray region) and 95% interval for the 100-year flood estimated from data (horizontal dashed and solid lines). The average distribution of the 100-year flood is shown in green in the right side.

Modeling tools for the assessment of microbiological risks during floods: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collender, Philip; Yang, Wen; Stieglitz, Marc; Remais, Justin

2015-04-01

Floods are a major, recurring source of harm to global economies and public health. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events under future climate change, coupled with continued urbanization in areas with high risk of floods, may exacerbate future impacts of flooding. Improved flood risk management is essential to support global development, poverty reduction and public health, and is likely to be a crucial aspect of climate change adaptation. Importantly, floods can facilitate the transmission of waterborne pathogens by changing social conditions (overcrowding among displaced populations, interruption of public health services), imposing physical challenges to infrastructure (sewerage overflow, reduced capacity to treat drinking water), and altering fate and transport of pathogens (transport into waterways from overland flow, resuspension of settled contaminants) during and after flood conditions. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models are capable of generating quantitative characterizations of microbiological risks associated with flooding, while accounting for these diverse and at times competing physical and biological processes. Despite a few applications of such models to the quantification of microbiological risks associated with floods, there exists limited guidance as to the relative capabilities, and limitations, of existing modeling platforms when used for this purpose. Here, we review 17 commonly used flood and water quality modeling tools that have demonstrated or implicit capabilities of mechanistically representing and quantifying microbial risk during flood conditions. We compare models with respect to their capabilities of generating outputs that describe physical and microbial conditions during floods, such as concentration or load of non-cohesive sediments or pathogens, and the dynamics of high flow conditions. Recommendations are presented for the application of specific modeling tools for assessing particular flood-related microbial risks, and model improvements are suggested that may better characterize key microbial risks during flood events. The state of current tools are assessed in the context of a changing climate where the frequency, intensity and duration of flooding are shifting in some areas.

Extreme river response to climate-induced aggradation in a forested, montane basin, Carbon River, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyeler, J. D.; Rossi, R. K.; Kennard, P. M.; Beason, S. R.

2013-12-01

Climate change is drastically affecting the alpine landscape of Mount Rainier, encouraging glacial retreat, changes in snowpack thickness and longevity, and sediment delivery to downstream fluvial systems, leading to an extremely transport limited system and aggradation of the river valleys. River aggradation encourages devastating interactions between the pro-glacial braided fluvial systems and streamside floodplain ecosystems, in most places occupied by old-growth conifer forests. Current aggradation rates of the channels, bordered by late seral stage riparian forests, inhibit floodplain development, leading to an inverted relationship between perched river channels and lower-elevation adjacent floodplains. This disequilibrium creates a steeper gradient laterally towards the floodplains, rather than downstream; promoting flooding of streamside forest, removal and burial of vegetation with coarse alluvium, incision of avulsion channels, tree mortality, wood recruitment to channels, and ultimately widening the alluviated valley towards the glacially carved hillslopes. Aggradation and loss of streamside old-growth forest poses a significant problem to park infrastructure (e.g. roads, trails, and campgrounds) due to flood damage with as frequent as a two-year event. Other park rivers, the White River and Tahoma Creek, characterize two end-member cases. Despite an extremely perched channel, the White River is relatively stable; experiencing small avulsions while the old-growth streamside forest has remained mostly intact. These relatively small avulsions however severely impact park infrastructure, causing extensive flood damage and closure of the heavily trafficked state highway. Conversely debris flows on Tahoma Creek destroyed the streamside forest and migration across the valley is uninhibited. Mature streamside forests tend to oppose avulsions, sieving wood at the channel margins, promoting sediment deposition and deflection of erosive flows. Our study seeks to understand the Carbon River avulsion vulnerability, relative to White River and Tahoma Creek, and whether recent avulsions are a harbinger of a threshold loss of riparian forest leading to unfettered future river channel shifting. To this end, we are analyzing historic aerial imagery, multiple LiDAR datasets, and the flood record as well as field mapping channels to identify historically active, inactive, and abandoned avulsions through time and in relation to susceptibility of forest mortality and infrastructure destruction by mainstem avulsions of the Carbon River and widening of the river valley. Our work contributes to the understanding of river avulsions and landscape response to climate change via channel migration due to interactions between sediment aggradation, flood events, and interactions with streamside forests.

Assessment of infrastructure functional damages caused by natural-technological disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massabò, Marco; Trasforini, Eva; Traverso, Stefania; Rudari, Roberto; De Angeli, Silvia; Cecinati, Francesca; Cerruti, Valentina

2013-04-01

The assessment of infrastructure damages caused by technological disaster poses several challenges, from gathering needed information on the territorial system to the definition of functionality curves for infrastructures elements (such as, buildings, road school) that are exposed to both natural and technological event. Moreover, areas affected by natural or natech (technological disasters triggered by natural events) disasters have often very large extensions and a rapid survey of them to gather all the needed information is a very difficult task, for many reasons, not least the difficult access to the existing databases and resources. We use multispectral optical imagery with other geographical and unconventional data to identify and characterize exposed elements. Our efforts in the virtual survey and during the investigation steps have different aims: to identify the vulnerability of infrastructures, buildings or activities; to execute calculations of exposition to risk; to estimate physical and functional damages. Subsequently, we apply specific algorithms to estimate values of acting forces and physical and functional damages. The updated picture of target areas in terms of risk-prone people, infrastructures and their connections is very important. It is possible to develop algorithms providing values of systemic functionality for each network element. The methodology is here applied to a natech disaster, arising from the combination of a flood event (specifically, the January 2010 flooding of Drin and Buna rivers, with a worsening in the road safety levels in the Shkoder area) with and the subsequent overturning of a truck transporting hazardous material. The accident causes the loss of containment and the total material release. Once the release has taken place, the evolution will depend on the physical state of the substance spilled (liquid, gas or dust). As a specific case we consider the rupture of a trucks transporting liquid fuels such as gasoline through Shkoder downtown. Goods entering in Albania from north pass through Shkoder, indeed a high traffic road that connects Albania with Montenegro and Kosovo crosses Shkoder downtown. We consider a truck overturned in downtown Shkoder during the flooding of January 2010; the gasoline transported by the truck is completely released and a pool fire develops damaging roads. We use the model CHESRM (Chemical Spill Risk Mapper) for identify the threat zones of the accident and as a basis for assessing the potential leads to functional damages to other elements of the considered system. The application of the methodology shows the potential use not only on real time emergency management or prevention but also during post-event management for the evaluation of the functional damage to the affected infrastructure (villages isolated from the rest of the network, villages unable to reach schools, hospitals or other services...) and to set a hierarchy in restoration activities, giving priority to the reconstruction of links between primary nodes.

1D and 2D urban dam-break flood modelling in Istanbul, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozdemir, Hasan; Neal, Jeffrey; Bates, Paul; Döker, Fatih

2014-05-01

Urban flood events are increasing in frequency and severity as a consequence of several factors such as reduced infiltration capacities due to continued watershed development, increased construction in flood prone areas due to population growth, the possible amplification of rainfall intensity due to climate change, sea level rise which threatens coastal development, and poorly engineered flood control infrastructure (Gallegos et al., 2009). These factors will contribute to increased urban flood risk in the future, and as a result improved modelling of urban flooding according to different causative factor has been identified as a research priority (Gallegos et al., 2009; Ozdemir et al. 2013). The flooding disaster caused by dam failures is always a threat against lives and properties especially in urban environments. Therefore, the prediction of dynamics of dam-break flows plays a vital role in the forecast and evaluation of flooding disasters, and is of long-standing interest for researchers. Flooding occurred on the Ayamama River (Istanbul-Turkey) due to high intensity rainfall and dam-breaching of Ata Pond in 9th September 2009. The settlements, industrial areas and transportation system on the floodplain of the Ayamama River were inundated. Therefore, 32 people were dead and millions of Euros economic loses were occurred. The aim of this study is 1 and 2-Dimensional flood modelling of the Ata Pond breaching using HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-Roe models and comparison of the model results using the real flood extent. The HEC-RAS model solves the full 1-D Saint Venant equations for unsteady open channel flow whereas LISFLOOD-Roe is the 2-D shallow water model which calculates the flow according to the complete Saint Venant formulation (Villanueva and Wright, 2006; Neal et al., 2011). The model consists a shock capturing Godunov-type scheme based on the Roe Riemann solver (Roe, 1981). 3 m high resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM), natural characteristics of the pond and its breaching such as depth, wide, length, volume and breaching shape and daily total rainfall data were used in the models. The simulated flooding in the both models were compared with the real flood extent which gathered from photos taken after the flood event, high satellite images acquired after 20 days from the flood event, and field works. The results show that LISFLOOD-Roe hydraulic model gives more than 80% fit to the extent of real flood event. Also both modelling results show that the embankment breaching of the Ata Pond directly affected the flood magnitude and intensity on the area. This study reveals that modelling of the probable flooding in urban areas is necessary and very important in urban planning. References Gallegos, H. A., Schubert, J. E., and Sanders, B. F.: Two dimensional, high-resolution modeling of urban dam-break flooding: A case study of Baldwin Hills California, Adv. Water Resour., 32, 1323-1335, 2009. Neal, J., Villanueva, I., Wright, N., Willis, T., Fewtrell, T. and Bates, P.: How mush physical complexity is needed to model flood inundation? Hydrological Processes, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8339. Ozdemir H., Sampson C., De Almeida G., Bates P.D.: Evaluating scale and roughness effects in urban flood modelling using terrestrial LiDAR data, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol.17, pp.4015-4030, 2013. Roe P.: Approximate Riemann solvers, parameter vectors, and difference-schemes. Journal of Computational Physics 43(2): 357-372, 1981. Villanueva I, Wright NG.: Linking Riemann and storage cell models for flood prediction. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Journal of Water Management 159: 27-33, 2006.

Enhancing future resilience in urban drainage system: Green versus grey infrastructure.

PubMed

Dong, Xin; Guo, Hao; Zeng, Siyu

2017-11-01

In recent years, the concept transition from fail-safe to safe-to-fail makes the application of resilience analysis popular in urban drainage systems (UDSs) with various implications and quantifications. However, most existing definitions of UDSs resilience are confined to the severity of flooding, while uncertainties from climate change and urbanization are not considered. In this research, we take into account the functional variety, topological complexity, and disturbance randomness of UDSs and define a new formula of resilience based on three parts of system severity, i.e. social severity affected by urban flooding, environmental severity caused by sewer overflow, and technological severity considering the safe operation of downstream facilities. A case study in Kunming, China is designed to compare the effect of green and grey infrastructure strategies on the enhancement of system resilience together with their costs. Different system configurations with green roofs, permeable pavement and storage tanks are compared by scenario analysis with full consideration of future uncertainties induced by urbanization and climate change. The research contributes to the development of sustainability assessment of urban drainage system with consideration of the resilience of green and grey infrastructure under future change. Finding the response measures with high adaptation across a variety of future scenarios is crucial to establish sustainable urban drainage system in a long term. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Integrated assessments of green infrastructure for flood mitigation to support robust decision-making for sponge city construction in an urbanized watershed.

PubMed

Mei, Chao; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hao; Yang, Zhiyong; Ding, Xiangyi; Shao, Weiwei

2018-10-15

Green Infrastructure (GI) has become increasingly important in urban stormwater management because of the effects of climate change and urbanization. To mitigate severe urban water-related problems, China is implementing GI at the national scale under its Sponge City Program (SCP). The SCP is currently in a pilot period, however, little attention has been paid to the cost-effectiveness of GI implementation in China. In this study, an evaluation framework based on the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) was applied to undertake integrated assessments of the development of GI for flood mitigation, to support robust decision making regarding sponge city construction in urbanized watersheds. A baseline scenario and 15 GI scenarios under six design rainfall events with recurrence intervals ranging from 2-100 years were simulated and assessed. Model simulation results confirmed the effectiveness of GI for flood mitigation. Nevertheless, even under the most beneficial scenario, the results showed the hydrological performance of GI was incapable of eliminating flooding. Analysis indicated the bioretention cell (BC) plus vegetated swale (VS) scenario was the most cost-effective GI option for unit investment under all rainfall events. However, regarding the maximum potential of the implementation areas of all GI scenarios, the porous pavement plus BC + VS strategy was considered most reasonable for the study area. Although the optimal combinations are influenced by uncertainties in both the model and the GI parameters, the main trends and key insights derived remain unaffected; therefore, the conclusions are relevant regarding sponge city construction within the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linking Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Climate and Food Security: an Initiative of International Scientific Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.

2013-05-01

Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio-economic consequence.

Flood impacts on a water distribution network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

2017-12-01

Floods cause damage to people, buildings and infrastructures. Water distribution systems are particularly exposed, since water treatment plants are often located next to the rivers. Failure of the system leads to both direct losses, for instance damage to equipment and pipework contamination, and indirect impact, since it may lead to service disruption and thus affect populations far from the event through the functional dependencies of the network. In this work, we present an analysis of direct and indirect damages on a drinking water supply system, considering the hazard of riverine flooding as well as the exposure and vulnerability of active system components. The method is based on interweaving, through a semi-automated GIS procedure, a flood model and an EPANET-based pipe network model with a pressure-driven demand approach, which is needed when modelling water distribution networks in highly off-design conditions. Impact measures are defined and estimated so as to quantify service outage and potential pipe contamination. The method is applied to the water supply system of the city of Florence, Italy, serving approximately 380 000 inhabitants. The evaluation of flood impact on the water distribution network is carried out for different events with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to estimate their residual functionality and to simulate failure scenarios. Results show that in the worst failure scenario (no residual functionality of the lifting station and a 500-year flood), 420 km of pipework would require disinfection with an estimated cost of EUR 21 million, which is about 0.5 % of the direct flood losses evaluated for buildings and contents. Moreover, if flood impacts on the water distribution network are considered, the population affected by the flood is up to 3 times the population directly flooded.

LiDAR and IFSAR-Based Flood Inundation Model Estimates for Flood-Prone Areas of Afghanistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, W. C.; Goldade, M. M.; Kastens, J.; Dobbs, K. E.; Macpherson, G. L.

2014-12-01

Extreme flood events are not unusual in semi-arid to hyper-arid regions of the world, and Afghanistan is no exception. Recent flashfloods and flashflood-induced landslides took nearly 100 lives and destroyed or damaged nearly 2000 homes in 12 villages within Guzargah-e-Nur district of Baghlan province in northeastern Afghanistan. With available satellite imagery, flood-water inundation estimation can be accomplished remotely, thereby providing a means to reduce the impact of such flood events by improving shared situational awareness during major flood events. Satellite orbital considerations, weather, cost, data licensing restrictions, and other issues can often complicate the acquisition of appropriately timed imagery. Given the need for tools to supplement imagery where not available, complement imagery when it is available, and bridge the gap between imagery based flood mapping and traditional hydrodynamic modeling approaches, we have developed a topographic floodplain model (FLDPLN), which has been used to identify and map river valley floodplains with elevation data ranging from 90-m SRTM to 1-m LiDAR. Floodplain "depth to flood" (DTF) databases generated by FLDPLN are completely seamless and modular. FLDPLN has been applied in Afghanistan to flood-prone areas along the northern and southern flanks of the Hindu Kush mountain range to generate a continuum of 1-m increment flood-event models up to 10 m in depth. Elevation data used in this application of FLDPLN included high-resolution, drone-acquired LiDAR (~1 m) and IFSAR (5 m; INTERMAP). Validation of the model has been accomplished using the best available satellite-derived flood inundation maps, such as those issued by Unitar's Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT). Results provide a quantitative approach to evaluating the potential risk to urban/village infrastructure as well as to irrigation systems, agricultural fields and archaeological sites.

Impacts of climate change on the food-energy-water nexus in the upper Yellow River Basin: An integrated hydro-economic modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, Y.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

The large-scale reservoir system built on the upper Yellow River serves multiple purposes. The generated hydropower supplies over 60% of the entire electricity for the regional power grid while the irrigated crop production feeds almost one-third of the total population throughout the whole river basin. Moreover, the reservoir system also bears the responsibility for controlling ice flood, which occurs during the non-flood season due to winter ice freezing followed by spring thawing process, and could be even more disastrous than the summer flood. The contradiction of water allocation to satisfy multi-sector demands while mitigating ice flood risk has been longstanding. However, few researchers endeavor to employ the nexus thinking to addressing the complexities involved in all the interlinked purposes. In this study, we develop an integrated hydro-economic model that can be used to explore both the tradeoffs and synergies between the multiple purposes, based on which the water infrastructures (e.g., reservoir, diversion canal, pumping well) can be coordinated for maximizing the co-benefits of multiple sectors. The model is based on a node-link schematic of multiple operations including hydropower generation, irrigation scheduling, and the conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources. In particular, the model depicts some details regarding reservoir operation rules during the ice season using two indicators, i.e., flow control period and flow control level. The rules are obtained from historical records using data mining techniques under different climate conditions, and they are added to the model as part of the system constraints. Future reservoir inflow series are generated by a hydrological model with future climate scenarios projected by General Circulation Model (GCM). By analyzing the model results under the various climate scenarios, the future possible shifting trajectory of the food-energy-water system characteristics will be derived compared to the baseline scenario (i.e., the status-quo condition). Thus the model and the results are expected to be useful for enlightening economically efficient water allocation policy coping with climate change.

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Ward, Philip

2017-01-01

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. Formore » example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.« less

Floods, landslides and erosion from severe meteorological events in the Benevento Province, southern Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mascellaro, Neri; Guerriero, Luigi; Revellino, Paola; Grelle, Gerardo; Guadagno, Francesco M.

2017-04-01

As effect of the ongoing climate change, heavy meteorological events are increasing in frequency all over the world. The Campania Region in southern Italy is among the areas mostly affected by severe rainstorms and is periodically hit by their effect like floods and landslides. In October 2015, two intense rainfall events hit the central and southern regions of Italy but the most destructive effects occurred in the Benevento province (Campania region). The first storm, a self-healing V-shaped storm, began around at 7 p.m. of 14th October and stopped around at 3:00 a.m. of 15th October and was originated by the development of a cyclogenesis. The rain gages recorded a maximum cumulative value of 415.6 mm of rain in Paupisi (BN) and a strong increase in temperature; the maxima for the Benevento province was 24°C. The second storm began around at 12 a.m. of 19th October and stopped around at 7 p.m. of 20th October with a maximum cumulative value of 146.8 mm of rain in Colle Sannita(BN). These storms triggered a set of different effects that devastated more than 60 municipalities of the Sannio Province and were responsible for two casualties, €700 million of damage to infrastructures (estimates from Campania region) and about €1 billion damages to agriculture (Italian farmer Confederation). The the Calore river of the Benevento province and some of its tributaries overflowed destroying the surrounding area; major damages were recorded in the industrial area of the Benevento town. In the central and in the eastern sectors of the Benevento Province characterized by the outcropping of flyschoid units, the heavy rain triggered shallow earth flows, debris flows induced by rilling and soil slides. Debris avalanches and runoff-initiated debris flows reshaped the creeks of the Taburno-Camposauro massif and damaged a lot of infrastructure of the surrounding area. Flood events from the Calore river in the Benevento district have significant historical precedents. The most important events recorded in the past are: 1) the flood of the 2nd of October, 1949, that caused 20 fatalities, and 2) the flooding of May 1729. As first step of our study we reconstructed the spatial pattern and the temporal evolution of the storms affecting the Sannio area using the rainfall data recorded by the meteorological stations distributed across the Benevento Province. Subsequently we mapped all the effects to the landscape caused by the storms as: earth flows, soil slides, flooded area, runoff initiated debris flows and debris avalanches, debris flows initiated by rilling and soil erosion (using mainly Google earth images and field survey). We compered the location of these phenomena with the geological and topographic characteristics to understand likely controls in promote the triggering and the development of this unusual combination of different hazardous effects.

Hydrological Aspects of Weather Prediction and Flood Warnings: Report of the Ninth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Droegemeier, K.K.; Smith, J.D.; Businger, S.; Doswell, C.; Doyle, J.; Duffy, C.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Graziano, T.; James, L.D.; Krajewski, V.; LeMone, M.; Lettenmaier, D.; Mass, C.; Pielke, R.; Ray, P.; Rutledge, S.; Schaake, J.; Zipser, E.

2000-01-01

Among the many natural disasters that disrupt human and industrial activity in the United States each year, including tornadoes, hurricanes, extreme temperatures, and lightning, floods are among the most devastating and rank second in the loss of life. Indeed, the societal impact of floods has increased during the past few years and shows no sign of abating. Although the scientific questions associated with flooding and its accurate prediction are many and complex, an unprecedented opportunity now exists - in light of new observational and computing systems and infrastructures, a much improved understanding of small-scale meteorological and hydrological processes, and the availability of sophisticated numerical models and data assimilation systems - to attack the flood forecasting problem in a comprehensive manner that will yield significant new scientific insights and corresponding practical benefits. The authors present herein a set of recommendations for advancing our understanding of floods via the creation of natural laboratories situated in a variety of local meteorological and hydrological settings. Emphasis is given to floods caused by convection and cold season events, fronts and extratropical cyclones, orographic forcing, and hurricanes and tropical cyclones following landfall. Although the particular research strategies applied within each laboratory setting will necessarily vary, all will share the following principal elements: (a) exploitation of those couplings important to flooding that exist between meteorological and hydrological processes and models; (b) innovative use of operational radars, research radars, satellites, and rain gauges to provide detailed spatial characterizations of precipitation fields and rates, along with the use of this information in hydrological models and for improving and validating microphysical algorithms in meteorological models; (c) comparisons of quantitative precipitation estimation algorithms from both research (especially multiparameter) and operational radars against gauge data as well as output produced by meso- and storm-scale models; (d) use of data from dense, temporary river gauge networks to trace the fate of rain from its starting location in small basins to the entire stream and river network; and (e) sensitivity testing in the design and implementation of separate as well as coupled meteorological and hydrologic models, the latter designed to better represent those nonlinear feedbacks between the atmosphere and land that are known to play an important role in runoff prediction. Vital to this effort will be the creation of effective and sustained linkages between the historically separate though scientifically related disciplines of meteorology and hydrology, as well as their observational infrastructures and research methodologies.

Hydrological Aspects of Weather Prediction and Flood Warnings: Report of the Ninth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Droegemeier, K. K.; Smith, J. D.; Businger, S.; Doswell, C., III; Doyle, J.; Duffy, C.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Graziano, T.; James, L. D.; Krajewski, V.; Lemone, M.; Lettenmaier, D.; Mass, C.; Pielke, R., Sr.; Ray, P.; Rutledge, S.; Schaake, J.; Zipser, E.

2000-11-01

Among the many natural disasters that disrupt human and industrial activity in the United States each year, including tornadoes, hurricanes, extreme temperatures, and lightning, floods are among the most devastating and rank second in the loss of life. Indeed, the societal impact of floods has increased during the past few years and shows no sign of abating. Although the scientific questions associated with flooding and its accurate prediction are many and complex, an unprecedented opportunity now exists-in light of new observational and computing systems and infrastructures, a much improved understanding of small-scale meteorological and hydrological processes, and the availability of sophisticated numerical models and data assimilation systems-to attack the flood forecasting problem in a comprehensive manner that will yield significant new scientific insights and corresponding practical benefits. The authors present herein a set of recommendations for advancing our understanding of floods via the creation of natural laboratories situated in a variety of local meteorological and hydrological settings. Emphasis is given to floods caused by convection and cold season events, fronts and extratropical cyclones, orographic forcing, and hurricanes and tropical cyclones following landfall. Although the particular research strategies applied within each laboratory setting will necessarily vary, all will share the following principal elements: (a) exploitation of those couplings important to flooding that exist between meteorological and hydrological processes and models; (b) innovative use of operational radars, research radars, satellites, and rain gauges to provide detailed spatial characterizations of precipitation fields and rates, along with the use of this information in hydrological models and for improving and validating microphysical algorithms in meteorological models; (c) comparisons of quantitative precipitation estimation algorithms from both research (especially multiparameter) and operational radars against gauge data as well as output produced by meso- and storm-scale models; (d) use of data from dense, temporary river gauge networks to trace the fate of rain from its starting location in small basins to the entire stream and river network; and (e) sensitivity testing in the design and implementation of separate as well as coupled meteorological and hydrologic models, the latter designed to better represent those nonlinear feedbacks between the atmosphere and land that are known to play an important role in runoff prediction. Vital to this effort will be the creation of effective and sustained linkages between the historically separate though scientifically related disciplines of meteorology and hydrology, as well as their observational infrastructures and research methodologies.

Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

2016-04-01

The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Evaluation of design flood estimates with respect to sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobierska, Florian; Engeland, Kolbjorn

2016-04-01

Estimation of design floods forms the basis for hazard management related to flood risk and is a legal obligation when building infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads close to water bodies. Flood inundation maps used for land use planning are also produced based on design flood estimates. In Norway, the current guidelines for design flood estimates give recommendations on which data, probability distribution, and method to use dependent on length of the local record. If less than 30 years of local data is available, an index flood approach is recommended where the local observations are used for estimating the index flood and regional data are used for estimating the growth curve. For 30-50 years of data, a 2 parameter distribution is recommended, and for more than 50 years of data, a 3 parameter distribution should be used. Many countries have national guidelines for flood frequency estimation, and recommended distributions include the log Pearson II, generalized logistic and generalized extreme value distributions. For estimating distribution parameters, ordinary and linear moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are used. The aim of this study is to r-evaluate the guidelines for local flood frequency estimation. In particular, we wanted to answer the following questions: (i) Which distribution gives the best fit to the data? (ii) Which estimation method provides the best fit to the data? (iii) Does the answer to (i) and (ii) depend on local data availability? To answer these questions we set up a test bench for local flood frequency analysis using data based cross-validation methods. The criteria were based on indices describing stability and reliability of design flood estimates. Stability is used as a criterion since design flood estimates should not excessively depend on the data sample. The reliability indices describe to which degree design flood predictions can be trusted.

Flood Frequency Curves - Use of information on the likelihood of extreme floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faber, B.

2011-12-01

Investment in the infrastructure that reduces flood risk for flood-prone communities must incorporate information on the magnitude and frequency of flooding in that area. Traditionally, that information has been a probability distribution of annual maximum streamflows developed from the historical gaged record at a stream site. Practice in the United States fits a Log-Pearson type3 distribution to the annual maximum flows of an unimpaired streamflow record, using the method of moments to estimate distribution parameters. The procedure makes the assumptions that annual peak streamflow events are (1) independent, (2) identically distributed, and (3) form a representative sample of the overall probability distribution. Each of these assumptions can be challenged. We rarely have enough data to form a representative sample, and therefore must compute and display the uncertainty in the estimated flood distribution. But, is there a wet/dry cycle that makes precipitation less than independent between successive years? Are the peak flows caused by different types of events from different statistical populations? How does the watershed or climate changing over time (non-stationarity) affect the probability distribution floods? Potential approaches to avoid these assumptions vary from estimating trend and shift and removing them from early data (and so forming a homogeneous data set), to methods that estimate statistical parameters that vary with time. A further issue in estimating a probability distribution of flood magnitude (the flood frequency curve) is whether a purely statistical approach can accurately capture the range and frequency of floods that are of interest. A meteorologically-based analysis produces "probable maximum precipitation" (PMP) and subsequently a "probable maximum flood" (PMF) that attempts to describe an upper bound on flood magnitude in a particular watershed. This analysis can help constrain the upper tail of the probability distribution, well beyond the range of gaged data or even historical or paleo-flood data, which can be very important in risk analyses performed for flood risk management and dam and levee safety studies.

Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries since AD 1480

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Himmelsbach, I.; Glaser, R.; Schoenbein, J.; Riemann, D.; Martin, B.

2015-10-01

This paper presents the long-term analysis of flood occurrence along the southern part of the Upper Rhine River system and of 14 of its tributaries in France and Germany covering the period starting from 1480 BC. Special focus is given on the temporal and spatial variations of flood events and their underlying meteorological causes over time. Examples are presented of how long-term information about flood events and knowledge about the historical aspect of flood protection in a given area can help to improve the understanding of risk analysis and therefor transnational risk management. Within this context, special focus is given to flood vulnerability while comparing selected historical and modern extreme events, establishing a common evaluation scheme. The transnational aspect becomes especially evident analyzing the tributaries: on this scale, flood protection developed impressively different on the French and German sides. We argue that comparing high technological standards of flood protection, which were initiated by the dukes of Baden on the German side starting in the early 19th century, misled people to the common belief that the mechanical means of flood protection like dams and barrages can guarantee the security from floods and their impacts. This lead to widespread settlements and the establishment of infrastructure as well as modern industries in potentially unsafe areas until today. The legal status in Alsace on the French side of the Rhine did not allow for continuous flood protection measurements, leading to a constant - and probably at last annoying - reminder that the floodplains are a potentially unsafe place to be. From a modern perspective of flood risk management, this leads to a significant lower aggregation of value in the floodplains of the small rivers in Alsace compared to those on the Baden side - an interesting fact - especially if the modern European Flood directive is taken into account.

Geophysical Tracking of a Subglacial Flood in Near Real-Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eibl, Eva P. S.; Jóhannesson, Tómas; Ofeigsson, Benedikt G.; Roberts, Matthew J.; Bean, Christopher J.; Vogfjörd, Kristin S.; Jones, Morgan T.; Pfeffer, Melissa A.; Bergsson, Baldur; Pálsson, Finnur

2017-04-01

Subglacial lakes and volcanoes in Iceland pose a risk to people, livestock and infrastructure when water drains in subglacial floods. Many of these floods occur every year and efforts are made to forecast them and evacuate in time. The two Skaftá cauldrons are located at the southwestern part of Vatnajökull glacier and usually drain once every two years. However, following drainage in 2010, the eastern cauldron did not drain before October 2015. While water accumulated over these five years, scientists - within the EU-funded project FutureVolc - improved the monitoring network around southwest Vatnajökull in order to record the flood in great detail. The network finally comprised two seismic arrays, a GPS instrument on top of the cauldron, two GPS instruments above the flood path, gas measurements at the glaciers' edge, hydrological measurements at river gauges and osmotic sampler data. We present how the GPS, gas and hydrological instruments allow us to detect the start of and subglacial propagation of the flood. The derived timing is consistent with the approximate time of rupturing of the ice close to the glacier edge and the source movement observed in the seismic signals. The subglacial flow of water is accompanied by seismic tremor, whose source location moves downslope with the flood front. This tremor is followed by about 24 hours of stronger tremor bursts from the direction of the empty cauldron.

Flood hydrology and dam-breach hydraulic analyses of five reservoirs in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Michael R.; Hoogestraat, Galen K.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service has identified hazard concerns for areas downstream from five Colorado dams on Forest Service land. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Forest Service, initiated a flood hydrology analysis to estimate the areal extent of potential downstream flood inundation and hazard to downstream life, property, and infrastructure if dam breach occurs. Readily available information was used for dam-breach assessments of five small Colorado reservoirs (Balman Reservoir, Crystal Lake, Manitou Park Lake, McGinnis Lake, and Million Reservoir) that are impounded by an earthen dam, and no new data were collected for hydraulic modeling. For each reservoir, two dam-breach scenarios were modeled: (1) the dam is overtopped but does not fail (break), and (2) the dam is overtopped and dam-break occurs. The dam-breach scenarios were modeled in response to the 100-year recurrence, 500-year recurrence, and the probable maximum precipitation, 24-hour duration rainstorms to predict downstream flooding. For each dam-breach and storm scenario, a flood inundation map was constructed to estimate the extent of flooding in areas of concern downstream from each dam. Simulation results of the dam-break scenarios were used to determine the hazard classification of the dam structure (high, significant, or low), which is primarily based on the potential for loss of life and property damage resulting from the predicted downstream flooding.

Flood Impacts on People: from Hazard to Risk Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, C.; Castelli, F.

2017-12-01

The mitigation of adverse consequences of floods on people is crucial for civil protection and public authorities. According to several studies, in the developed countries the majority of flood-related fatalities occurs due to inappropriate high risk behaviours such as driving and walking in floodwaters. In this work both the loss of stability of vehicles and pedestrians in floodwaters are analysed. Flood hazard is evaluated, based on (i) a 2D inundation model of an urban area, (ii) 3D hydrodynamic simulations of water flows around vehicles and human body and (iii) a dimensional analysis of experimental activity. Exposure and vulnerability of vehicles and population are assessed exploiting several sources of open GIS data in order to produce risk maps for a testing case study. The results show that a significant hazard to vehicles and pedestrians exists in the study area. Particularly high is the hazard to vehicles, which are likely to be swept away by flood flow, possibly aggravate damages to structures and infrastructures and locally alter the flood propagation. Exposure and vulnerability analysis identifies some structures such as schools and public facilities, which may attract several people. Moreover, some shopping facilities in the area, which attract both vehicular and pedestrians' circulation are located in the highest flood hazard zone.The application of the method demonstrates that, at municipal level, such risk maps can support civil defence strategies and education to active citizenship, thus contributing to flood impact reduction to population.

Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2017-07-01

We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

How Unusual Was The Storm Surge Season Of 2013-14 in the UK?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haigh, I. D.; Wadey, M.; Gallop, S. L.; Nicholls, R. J.; Horsburgh, K.

2014-12-01

When significant coastal flooding occurs along low-lying, highly populated, and/or developed coastlines, the impacts can be devastating and long lasting with wide ranging social, economic, and environmental consequences. The UK has a long history of severe coastal flooding, with major events including those that occurred in 1607, 1703 and 1953. The problems associated with coastal flooding again reached the forefront during the latest winter of 2013-2014 when the UK experienced a series of very severe events. What is noteworthy about this most recent winter period is the: (1) large number of significantly coastal flooding events occurring one after another over a relatively short period of time; and (2) the large areas of coastline affected. Extreme events are rarely assessed in terms of 'clustering', despite the fact this leads to amplified flood damages. The spatial dependence in flood hazard (i.e. simultaneous flooding in multiple locations) is now receiving more attention, motivated by concern from re-insurance, infrastructure reliability and emergency response, but understanding in this area is still limited. In this paper we assess extreme high water events and their temporal clustering and footprint around the UK, using records from the UK national network of 40 tide gauges, the longest of which extends back 100 years. We identify 100 distinct events, during which water levels exceeded the 1 in 5 year return period. We examine these events in detail and assess the coastal flooding that occurred during each event.

Assessing post-fire values-at-risk with a new calculation tool

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Kevin D. Hyde; Peter R. Robichaud; J. Greg Jones; Louise E. Ashmun; Loeffler Dan

2007-01-01

Wildfire effects include loss of vegetative cover and changes to soil properties that may lead to secondary effects of increased runoff, erosion, flooding, sedimentation, and vulnerability to invasive weeds. These secondary effects may threaten human life and safety, cultural and ecological resources, land use, and existing infrastructure. Current Burned Area Emergency...

Dynamic Data Driven Applications Systems (DDDAS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-03

response) – Earthquakes, hurricanes, tornados, wildfires, floods, landslides, tsunamis, … • Critical Infrastructure systems – Electric-powergrid...Multiphase Flow Weather and Climate Structural Mechanics Seismic Processing Aerodynamics Geophysical Fluids Quantum Chemistry Actinide Chemistry...Alloys • Approach and Objectives:  Consider porous SMAs:  similar macroscopic behavior but mass /weight is less, and thus attractive for

DEVELOPING A SMALL BUSINESS IN RESPONSE TO A STORMWATER UTILITY FOR THE NEW JERSEY MEADOWLANDS

EPA Science Inventory

The main causes of flooding have been identified to be clogged catch basins and tidal gates, the lot being poorly graded and mostly impervious, lack of pumping systems and tidal issues. The unmaintained existing infrastructure such as broken or non-functional tidal gates, drai...

Impact of sea level rise on tide gate function.

PubMed

Walsh, Sean; Miskewitz, Robert

2013-01-01

Sea level rise resulting from climate change and land subsidence is expected to severely impact the duration and associated damage resulting from flooding events in tidal communities. These communities must continuously invest resources for the maintenance of existing structures and installation of new flood prevention infrastructure. Tide gates are a common flood prevention structure for low-lying communities in the tidal zone. Tide gates close during incoming tides to prevent inundation from downstream water propagating inland and open during outgoing tides to drain upland areas. Higher downstream mean sea level elevations reduce the effectiveness of tide gates by impacting the hydraulics of the system. This project developed a HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS model of an existing tide gate structure and its upland drainage area in the New Jersey Meadowlands to simulate the impact of rising mean sea level elevations on the tide gate's ability to prevent upstream flooding. Model predictions indicate that sea level rise will reduce the tide gate effectiveness resulting in longer lasting and deeper flood events. The results indicate that there is a critical point in the sea level elevation for this local area, beyond which flooding scenarios become dramatically worse and would have a significantly negative impact on the standard of living and ability to do business in one of the most densely populated areas of America.

Coastal flood implications of 1.5°C, 2°C and 2.5°C global mean temperature stabilization targets for small island nations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, D.; Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of flooding in coastal regions. The rate and amount of global-mean SLR is a function of the trajectory of the global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets (e.g., 1.5°C or 2°C, as from the Paris Agreement) have important implications for regulating coastal flood risk. Quantifying the differences in the impact from SLR between these and other GMST stabilization targets is necessary for assessing the benefits and harms of mitigation goals. Low-lying small island nations are particularly vulnerable to inundation and coastal flooding from SLR because building protective and resilient infrastructure may not be physically or economically feasible. For small island nations, keeping GMST below a specified threshold may be the only option for maintaining habitability. Here, we assess differences in the return levels of coastal floods for small island nations between 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C GMST stabilization. We employ probabilistic, localized SLR projections and long-term hourly tide gauge records to construct estimates of local flood risk. We then estimate the number of small island nations' inhabitants at risk for permanent inundation under different GMST stabilization targets.

Sea-level Rise Increases the Frequency of Nuisance Flooding in Coastal Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari Rostamkhani, H.; Aghakouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Feldman, D.; Sweet, W.; Matthew, R.; Luke, A.

2015-12-01

The global warming-drivensea-level rise (SLR) posesa serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. The rate of SLR is accelerated in recent decades and is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gas emissions. Over the 20th century, an increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has been reported due to the reduced gap between tidal datum and flood stage. Nuisance flooding (NF), however non-destructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take the projected SLR under the least and the most extreme representative concentration pathways (e.gRCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) to estimate the increase in NF in the near- (2030) and mid-term (2050) future. The results suggest that projected SLR will cause up to two-fold more frequent NF by 2050, compared with the 20th century. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks especially in rapidly urbanized coastal regions.

Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, Hamed R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Feldman, David L.; Sweet, William; Matthew, Richard A.; Luke, Adam

2015-11-01

Mean sea level has risen tenfold in recent decades compared to the most recent millennia, posing a serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. An increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has also been reported due to the reduced gap between high tidal datums and flood stage, and the rate of sea level rise (SLR) is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gases emissions. Nuisance flooding (NF), however nondestructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take projected near-term (2030) and midterm (2050) SLR under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, to estimate the increase in NF. The results suggest that on average, - 80 ± 10% local SLR causes the median of the NF distribution to increase by 55 ± 35% in 2050 under RCP8.5. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks in coastal regions.

Integrated Framework for an Urban Climate Adaptation Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omitaomu, O.; Parish, E. S.; Nugent, P.; Mei, R.; Sylvester, L.; Ernst, K.; Absar, M.

2015-12-01

Cities have an opportunity to become more resilient to future climate change through investments made in urban infrastructure today. However, most cities lack access to credible high-resolution climate change projection information needed to assess and address potential vulnerabilities from future climate variability. Therefore, we present an integrated framework for developing an urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT). Urban-CAT consists of four modules. Firstly, it provides climate projections at different spatial resolutions for quantifying urban landscape. Secondly, this projected data is combined with socio-economic data using leading and lagging indicators for assessing landscape vulnerability to climate extremes (e.g., urban flooding). Thirdly, a neighborhood scale modeling approach is presented for identifying candidate areas for adaptation strategies (e.g., green infrastructure as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding). Finally, all these capabilities are made available as a web-based tool to support decision-making and communication at the neighborhood and city levels. In this paper, we present some of the methods that drive each of the modules and demo some of the capabilities available to-date using the City of Knoxville in Tennessee as a case study.

Cost estimates for flood resilience and protection strategies in New York City.

PubMed

Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Bowman, Malcolm

2013-08-01

In the aftermaths of Hurricanes Irene, in 2011, and Sandy, in 2012, New York City has come to recognize the critical need to better prepare for future storm surges and to anticipate future trends, such as climate change and socio-economic developments. The research presented in this report assesses the costs of six different flood management strategies to anticipate long-term challenges the City will face. The proposed strategies vary from increasing resilience by upgrading building codes and introducing small scale protection measures, to creating green infrastructure as buffer zones and large protective engineering works such as storm surge barriers. The initial investment costs of alternative strategies vary between $11.6 and $23.8 bn, maximally. We show that a hybrid solution, combining protection of critical infrastructure and resilience measures that can be upgraded over time, is less expensive. However, with increasing risk in the future, storm surge barriers may become cost-effective, as they can provide protection to the largest areas in both New York and New Jersey. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Effects of 45 Years of Heavy Road Traffic and Infrastructure on Permafrost and Tundra at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, D. A.; Buchhorn, M.; Raynolds, M. K.; Kanevskiy, M. Z.; Matyshak, G. V.; Shur, Y.; Peirce, J.

2015-12-01

The upper permafrost of the Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, the largest oil field in both the United States and in North America, contains significant amounts of excess ground ice, mainly in ice wedges. An increase in infrastructure development and road traffic since the initial development of the Prudhoe Bay Oilfield in 1968 has resulted in extensive flooding, accumulation of road dust, and roadside snowbanks, all of which affect the vegetation and alter the thermal properties of the ground surface. As part of the NSF's Arctic Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability (ArcSEES) project, we established four transects in 2014 and 2015 to document the effects of infrastructure and heavy road traffic on adjacent tundra. Two transects were established perpendicular to the Prudhoe Bay Spine Road north of Lake Colleen and two perpendicular to the Dalton Highway next to the Deadhorse airstrip. Prior to infrastructure development in 1949, rather homogeneous networks of low-centered polygons with less than 30 cm of trough-rim elevation contrast covered both locations. We present the detailed results of vegetation analysis, ice-core drilling, and extensive topographic surveys along the transects. A time series of aerial photographs from 1949 to 2014 (yearly since 1969) documents the changing landscapes in relationship to the record of air-temperature, active layer depths, and permafrost temperatures at Deadhorse. Flooding, road dust, and snow drifts have all contributed to creating warmer soil temperatures and deeper active layers near the road. These factors have all contributed in different ways to alteration of the plant canopy. The altered plant canopies in turn further altered the surface albedo and the ground temperatures. Historical photos indicate that between 1989 and 2012 a regional thawing of the ice-wedges occurred, increasing the extent of thermokarst. Our analysis demonstrates the cumulative effects of infrastructure-related and climate-related factors to these ice-rich permafrost landscapes.

Effects of large floods on channel width: recent insights from Italian rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scorpio, Vittoria; Righini, Margherita; Amponsah, William; Crema, Stefano; Ciccarese, Giuseppe; Nardi, Laura; Zoccatelli, Davide; Borga, Marco; Cavalli, Marco; Comiti, Francesco; Corsini, Alessandro; Marchi, Lorenzo; Rinaldi, Massimo; Surian, Nicola

2017-04-01

Variations of channel morphology occurring during large flood events (recurrence interval > 50-100 years.) are very often the cause of damages to buildings and infrastructures, as well as of casualties. However, our knowledge of such processes remains poor, as is our capability to predict them. Post-event campaigns documenting channel changes and linking them to hydrological and morphological factors thus bear an enormous value for both the scientific community and river management agencies. We present the results of an analysis on the geomorphic response associated to 4 large floods that occurred between October 2011 and September 2015, affecting several catchments in Northern Italy (Magra-Vara, Trebbia, Nure rivers) and Sardinia (Posada and Mannu di Bitti rivers), characterized by different climatic, lithological and geomorphological settings. The analysis considered more than 400 channel reaches characterized by a drainage area ranging from 39 to 1,100 km2 and featuring a wide range of lateral confinement, mostly within the partly- and unconfined conditions. The approach to flood analysis encompassed: (i) hydrological and hydraulic analysis; (ii) analysis of sediment delivery by landslides to the channel network; (iii) GIS-based and field assessment of morphological channel modifications. For the Nure River flood event (September 2015) a quantitative assessment on average bed level variations was also carried out. Return period for maximum hourly rainfall intensities and peak water discharges exceeded in all basins 100 yr, in some cases even 300 yr. Very high unit peak discharges were estimated, reaching 8.8 m3 s-1km-2 in the Nure River (205 km2) and up to 30 m3 s-1km-2in few Magra River tributaries (5-10 km2). Notable channel widening (post-flood width / pre-flood width > 1.1) occurred in 83% of studied reaches, and it was found more relevant in the channels with narrower initial width, i.e. along the relatively steep tributaries. For these tributaries, the ratio between post-flood and pre-flood width presents an average value of 4.2, with a maximum approaching 20. In the main river channels, due to the presence of wider sections and lower slope, the ratio resulted < 5, on average 1.3. The analysis of width ratio vs. flood peak unit stream power shows that the minimum unit stream power required to cause relevant widening was about 500 Wm-2. Nonetheless, some reaches affected by unit stream power as high as 4,000 Wm-2 exhibited limited or no widening at all. Indeed, a statistical analysis on the relationship between widening and both morphological and hydraulic controlling factors indicates that unit stream power and confinement index were the most relevant variables, whereas sediment input from mass wasting processes seems to have a localized influence. Remarkably, the analysis of subset referring to Trebbia and Nure basins showed that channel widening is strongly associated to bed aggradation, and that steeper tributaries underwent higher aggradation despite their larger sediment transport capacity. These results points out that geomorphic changes due to large floods are controlled by several factors that induce a highly variable pattern of change even within the same river basin.

A database on flood and debris-flow processes in alluvial fans: a preliminary analysis aimed at evaluation of the damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vennari, Carmela; Santangelo, Nicoletta; Santo, Antonio; Parise, Mario

2015-04-01

Debris-flow and flood events cause yearly wide damages to buildings and infrastructures, and produce many casualties and fatalities. These processes are very common in Italy, affecting mainly torrential stream basins with different geological and morphological settings: in the Alpine mountain areas they are quite well analysed, whilst much less attention is generally paid in contexts such as those of the Apennines mostly due to the minor frequency of the events. Nevertheless, debris-flows and flood processes occur along many alluvial fans, have greatly contributed to their building up, and are therefore worth to be studied. Along many areas of the Southern Apennines, coalescent alluvial fans are a widespread geomorphic unit, typically located at the foot of steep slopes. In most cases these areas correspond to the more highly urbanised sectors, generally considered to be safer than the bottom valley, as concerns the direct effects from flooding. During intense storms, villages and towns built on alluvial fans may be affected by flooding and/or debris flow processes originated in the above catchment, and rapidly transferred downslope due to the steep slopes and the torrential character of the streams. This creates a very high hazard to the population and is at the origin of the severe and recurrent damage to urban settlements. Starting from the above considerations, we compiled a catalogue of flood and debris-flow events occurred in Campania Region, southern Italy, by consulting very different information sources: national and local newspapers and journals, regional historical archives, scientific literature, internet blogs. More than 350 events, occurred in Campania from 1700 to present, were collected. Information on time of occurrence and location are available for each event, with different level of accuracy, that is typically lower going back to the oldest events for which only the year or the month of occurrence of the event was identified; nevertheless, for more than 75 % of the collected data, the complete date of occurrence is known. All the provinces of Campania are affected by debris-flow and flood processes, but the most interested appear to be Naples and Salerno. Debris flows and flood produced in the Region more than 2400 fatalities, about 200 injured people, and about 100 missing people, with more than 6000 homeless. Very harmful were the events occurred in 1581, 1841, 1910,1924, 1954, 1998; each of these caused more than 100 fatalities. With regard to homeless, the most damaging event took place in the area of Salerno, causing more than 5000 homeless. Buildings and infrastructures were also involved by the events dealt with here. A third of the processes included in the catalogue caused the total destruction of private buildings, and serious damage to communication routes (roads and railways), pipelines, factories and architectonical structures. The most disastrous season, as concerns the damage to infrastructures and humans, is the autumn. The catalogue is still in progress, being continually updated for new events, but, at the same time, continuing to perform archive and literature scrutiny as regards the past events. Further, another important part of the research is the investigation of the link with the triggering events (rainfall): at this aim, daily (or hourly, when available) pluviometric data are being analysed. Our final goal is to provide a method to estimate hazard assessment in alluvial basins torrents, that might be exportable in similar geological-geomorphological contexts. In such an effort, the first and mandatory step is the collection of historical data.

Elk River Watershed - Flood Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.

2014-12-01

Flooding has the potential to cause significant impacts to economic activities as well as to disrupt or displace populations. Changing climate regimes such as extreme precipitation events increase flood vulnerability and put additional stresses on infrastructure. Potential flooding from just under 100 (2009 NPRI Reviewed Facility Data Release, Environment Canada) toxic tailings ponds located in Canada increase risk to human safety and the environment. One such geotechnical failure spilt billions of litres of toxic tailings into the Fraser River watershed, British Columbia, when a tailings pond dam breach occurred in August 2014. Damaged and washed out roadways cut access to essential services as seen by the extensive floods that occurred in Saskatchewan and Manitoba in July 2014, and in Southern Alberta in 2013. Recovery efforts from events such as these can be lengthy, and have substantial social and economic impacts both in loss of revenue and cost of repair. The objective of this study is to investigate existing conditions in the Elk River watershed and model potential future hydrological changes that can increase flood risk hazards. By analyzing existing hydrology, meteorology, land cover, land use, economic, and settlement patterns a baseline is established for existing conditions in the Elk River watershed. Coupling the Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) high-resolution spatial hydrometeorological model with flood hazard analysis methodology, high-resolution flood vulnerability base line maps are created using historical climate conditions. Further work in 2015 will examine possible impacts for a range of climate change and land use change scenarios to define changes to future flood risk and vulnerability.

Projections of Flood Risk using Credible Climate Signals in the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlef, K.; Robertson, A. W.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

Estimating future hydrologic flood risk under non-stationary climate is a key challenge to the design of long-term water resources infrastructure and flood management strategies. In this work, we demonstrate how projections of large-scale climate patterns can be credibly used to create projections of long-term flood risk. Our study area is the northwest region of the Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest. In the region, three major teleconnections have been previously demonstrated to affect synoptic patterns that influence extreme precipitation and streamflow: the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These teleconnections are strongest during the winter season (January-March), which also experiences the greatest number of peak flow events. For this reason, flood events are defined as the maximum daily streamflow to occur in the winter season. For each gage in the region, the location parameter of a log Pearson type 3 distribution is conditioned on the first principal component of the three teleconnections to create a statistical model of flood events. Future projections of flood risk are created by forcing the statistical model with projections of the teleconnections from general circulation models selected for skill. We compare the results of our method to the results of two other methods: the traditional model chain (i.e., general circulation model projections to downscaling method to hydrologic model to flood frequency analysis) and that of using the historic trend. We also discuss the potential for developing credible projections of flood events for the continental United States.

Developing a concept of social-ecological-technological systems to characterize resilience of urban areas and infrastructure to extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chester, M.; Grimm, N. B.; Redman, C.; Miller, T.; McPherson, T.; Munoz-Erickson, T.; Chandler, D. G.

2015-12-01

Climate change is widely considered one of the greatest challenges to global sustainability, with extreme events being the most immediate way that people experience this phenomenon. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to these events given their location, concentration of people, and increasingly complex and interdependent infrastructure. We are developing a conceptual framework for urban social-ecological-technological systems (SETS) that will allow researchers and practitioners to assess how infrastructure can be resilient, provide ecosystem services, improve social well being, and exploit new technologies in ways that benefit urban populations. The framework integrates the three domains of social and equity issues, environmental quality and protection, and technical/engineering aspects, to form a concept of infrastructure that occurs at the intersection of the domains. Examples show how the more common socioecological systems and socially sensitive engineering approaches that fail to incorporate the third dimension may elevate vulnerability to climate-related disaster. The SETS conceptual framework bridges currently siloed social science, environmental science, and engineering approaches to significantly advance research into the structure, function, and emergent properties of SETS. Extreme events like heat waves in Phoenix; coastal and urban flooding in the wake of superstorm Sandy and following hurricanes in Miami, FL; drought in Mexico; and urban flooding in Baltimore, Portland, San Juan PR, Syracuse, and Valdivia, Chile provide examples of the impacts of and vulnerability to extreme events that demand a new approach. The infrastructure of the future must be resilient, leverage ecosystem services, improve social well being, and exploit new technologies in ways that benefit all segments of urban populations and are appropriate to the particular urban contexts. These contexts are defined not only by the biophysical environment but also by culture and institutions of each place. We apply the SETS conceptual framework to nine western hemisphere cities in diverse settings, presenting hypotheses about the relative efficacy of strategies for resilient SETS infrastructure in cities contrasting in event type, biophysical setting, and cultural and institutional contexts.

Life-cycle Economic and Environmental Effects of Green, Gray and Hybrid Stormwater Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes-Draut, J. R.; Taptich, M. N.; Horvath, A.

2016-12-01

Cities throughout the U.S. are seeking efficient ways to manage stormwater for many reasons, including flood control, pollution management, water supply augmentation and to prepare for a changing climate. Traditionally, cities have relied primarily on gray infrastructure, namely sewers, storage and treatment facilities. In these systems, urban runoff, its volume increasing as impervious surfaces expand, is channeled to a wastewater plant where it is mixed with raw sewage prior to treatment or it is discharged, generally untreated, to local water bodies. These facilities are inflexible and expensive to build and maintain. Many systems are deteriorating and/or approaching, if not exceeding, their design capacity. Increasingly, more innovative approaches that integrate stormwater management into the natural environment and that make sense at both local and regional scales are sought. Identifying the best stormwater solution will require evaluating the life-cycle economic costs associated with these alternatives, including costs associated with construction, operation, and maintenance including regulatory and permitting costs, financing, as well as other indirect costs (e.g., avoided wastewater processing or system capacity expansion, increased property value) and non-economic co-benefits (i.e, aesthetics, habitat provision). Beyond conventional life-cycle costing, applying life-cycle assessment (LCA) will contribute to more holistic and sustainable decision-making. LCA can be used to quantitatively track energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and other environmental effects associated with constructing, operating, and maintaining green and gray infrastructure, including supply chain contributions. We will present the current state of knowledge for implementing life-cycle costing and LCA into stormwater management decisions for green, gray and hybrid infrastructure.

Vulnerability assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods using Remote Sensing and GIS in North Sikkim (India), Eastern Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Suruchi; Probha Devi, Juna; Thakur, Praveen Kumar; Rai, Suresh Chand

2016-04-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occur when glacier melt water dammed by a moraine is released in short time. Such floods may lead to disastrous events posing, therefore, a huge threat to human lives and infrastructure. A devastating GLOF in Uttarakhand, India, on 17 July 2013 has led to the loss of all villages in a stretch of 18 km downstream the lake and the loss of more than 5000 lives. The present study evaluates all 16 glacial lakes (with an area >0.1 km²) in the Thangu valley, northern Sikkim (India), eastern Himalaya, with respect to potential threats for the downstream areas. The hazard criteria for the study include slope, aspect and distance of the respective parent glacier, change in the lake area, dam characteristics and lake depth. For the most hazardous lakes, the socio-economic conditions in the downstream areas (settlements and infrastructure) are analysed regarding the impact of potential GLOFs. For the vulnerability analysis, we used various satellite products including LANDSAT, RESOUCESAT-1 and 2, RISAT-1 imageries and ASTER GDEM covering the period from 1977 to 2014. For lake mapping, we applied the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI). A Land Use Land Cover (LULC) map of the study area showing in-situ observations is serving as driving factor for the vulnerability analysis. The results of the study show that almost all evaluated glacial lakes were expanding during the study period (1977-2014). Combining the hazard criteria for the lakes, 5 of the 16 studied glacial lakes are identified as highly hazardous. In the downstream area, there are two villages with 200 inhabitants and an army camp within the zone of highest vulnerability. The identified vulnerability zones may be used by the local authorities to take caution of the threatened villages and infrastructure and for risk analysis for planned future hydropower plants.

Providing peak river flow statistics and forecasting in the Niger River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson, Jafet C. M.; Ali, Abdou; Arheimer, Berit; Gustafsson, David; Minoungou, Bernard

2017-08-01

Flooding is a growing concern in West Africa. Improved quantification of discharge extremes and associated uncertainties is needed to improve infrastructure design, and operational forecasting is needed to provide timely warnings. In this study, we use discharge observations, a hydrological model (Niger-HYPE) and extreme value analysis to estimate peak river flow statistics (e.g. the discharge magnitude with a 100-year return period) across the Niger River basin. To test the model's capacity of predicting peak flows, we compared 30-year maximum discharge and peak flow statistics derived from the model vs. derived from nine observation stations. The results indicate that the model simulates peak discharge reasonably well (on average + 20%). However, the peak flow statistics have a large uncertainty range, which ought to be considered in infrastructure design. We then applied the methodology to derive basin-wide maps of peak flow statistics and their associated uncertainty. The results indicate that the method is applicable across the hydrologically active part of the river basin, and that the uncertainty varies substantially depending on location. Subsequently, we used the most recent bias-corrected climate projections to analyze potential changes in peak flow statistics in a changed climate. The results are generally ambiguous, with consistent changes only in very few areas. To test the forecasting capacity, we ran Niger-HYPE with a combination of meteorological data sets for the 2008 high-flow season and compared with observations. The results indicate reasonable forecasting capacity (on average 17% deviation), but additional years should also be evaluated. We finish by presenting a strategy and pilot project which will develop an operational flood monitoring and forecasting system based in-situ data, earth observations, modelling, and extreme statistics. In this way we aim to build capacity to ultimately improve resilience toward floods, protecting lives and infrastructure in the region.

Towards a Flood Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettner, A.; Chong, A.; Prades, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Muir, S.; Amparore, A.; Slayback, D. A.; Poungprom, R.

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide, affecting 21 million people every year. In the immediate moments following a flood event, humanitarian actors like the World Food Program need to make rapid decisions ( 72 hrs) on how to prioritize affected areas impacted by such an event. For other natural disasters like hurricanes/cyclones and earthquakes, there are industry-recognized standards on how the impacted areas are to be classified. Shake maps, quantifying peak ground motion, from for example the US Geological Survey are widely used for assessing earthquakes. Similarly, cyclones are tracked by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) who release storm nodes and tracks (forecasted and actual), with wind buffers and classify the event according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. For floods, the community is usually able to acquire unclassified data of the flood extent as identified from satellite imagery. Most often no water discharge hydrograph is available to classify the event into recurrence intervals simply because there is no gauging station, or the gauging station was unable to record the maximum discharge due to overtopping or flood damage. So, the question remains: How do we methodically turn a flooded area into classified areas of different gradations of impact? Here, we present a first approach towards developing a global applicable flood severity index. The flood severity index is set up such that it considers relatively easily obtainable physical parameters in a short period of time like: flood frequency (relating the current flood to historical events) and magnitude, as well as land cover, slope, and where available pre-event simulated flood depth. The scale includes categories ranging from very minor flooding to catastrophic flooding. We test and evaluate the postulated classification scheme against a set of past flood events. Once a severity category is determined, socio-economic data, such as population density, infrastructure, urbanization or equivalent information, is required for humanitarian actors to respond properly. In the end, expanded monitoring of floods, improved mitigation measures, but also effective communication of the severity of an event has the potential to reduce loss of life in future flood events.

Flood Damage and Loss Estimation for Iowa on Web-based Systems using HAZUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yildirim, E.; Sermet, M. Y.; Demir, I.

2016-12-01

Importance of decision support systems for flood emergency response and loss estimation increases with its social and economic impacts. To estimate the damage of the flood, there are several software systems available to researchers and decision makers. HAZUS-MH is one of the most widely used desktop program, developed by FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), to estimate economic loss and social impacts of disasters such as earthquake, hurricane and flooding (riverine and coastal). HAZUS used loss estimation methodology and implements through geographic information system (GIS). HAZUS contains structural, demographic, and vehicle information across United States. Thus, it allows decision makers to understand and predict possible casualties and damage of the floods by running flood simulations through GIS application. However, it doesn't represent real time conditions because of using static data. To close this gap, an overview of a web-based infrastructure coupling HAZUS and real time data provided by IFIS (Iowa Flood Information System) is presented by this research. IFIS is developed by the Iowa Flood Center, and a one-stop web-platform to access community-based flood conditions, forecasts, visualizations, inundation maps and flood-related data, information, and applications. Large volume of real-time observational data from a variety of sensors and remote sensing resources (radars, rain gauges, stream sensors, etc.) and flood inundation models are staged on a user-friendly maps environment that is accessible to the general public. Providing cross sectional analyses between HAZUS-MH and IFIS datasets, emergency managers are able to evaluate flood damage during flood events easier and more accessible in real time conditions. With matching data from HAZUS-MH census tract layer and IFC gauges, economical effects of flooding can be observed and evaluated by decision makers. The system will also provide visualization of the data by using augmented reality for see-through displays. Emergency management experts can take advantage of this visualization mode to manage flood response activities in real time. Also, forecast system developed by the Iowa Flood Center will be used to predict probable damage of the flood.

[El niño phenomenon and natural disasters: public health interventions for disaster preparedness and response].

PubMed

Hijar, Gisely; Bonilla, Catherine; Munayco, Cesar V; Gutierrez, Ericson L; Ramos, Willy

2016-06-01

This article reviews public health interventions for preparedness and response to natural disasters within the context of El Niño phenomenon using systematic reviews and a review of revisions with emphasis on vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, malnutrition, heat stress, drought, flood-associated diseases, mental health problems, vulnerability of the physical health-system infrastructure, as well as long-term policies aimed at protecting the populations of these cases. Environmental interventions were identified, including vector control, chemoprophylaxis, immunization, and intradomiciliary water treatment. While these finds are based primarily on systematic reviews, it is necessary to evaluate the benefit of these interventions within the population, according to the context of each region.

Fews-Risk: A step towards risk-based flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmann, Daniel; Eilander, Dirk; de Leeuw, Annemargreet; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Weerts, Albrecht; de Bruijn, Karin; Beckers, Joost; Boelee, Leonore; Brown, Emma; Hazlewood, Caroline

2015-04-01

Operational flood prediction and the assessment of flood risk are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within operational flood management. However, the information provided for decision support is restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in a model-based flood forecasting system. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. The idea of FEWS-Risk is the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. Thus, additional information is provided to the decision makers, such as: • Location, timing and probability of failure of defined sections of the flood defence line; • Flood spreading, extent and hydraulic values in the hinterland caused by an overflow or a breach flow • Impacts and consequences in case of flooding in the protected areas, such as injuries or casualties and/or damages to critical infrastructure or economy. In contrast with purely hydraulic-based operational information, these additional data focus upon decision support for answering crucial questions within an operational flood forecasting framework, such as: • Where should I reinforce my flood defence system? • What type of action can I take to mend a weak spot in my flood defences? • What are the consequences of a breach? • Which areas should I evacuate first? This presentation outlines the additional required workflows towards risk-based flood forecasting systems. In a cooperation between HR Wallingford and Deltares, the extended workflows are being integrated into the Delft-FEWS software system. Delft-FEWS provides modules for managing the data handling and forecasting process. Results of a pilot study that demonstrates the new tools are presented. The value of the newly generated information for decision support during a flood event is discussed.

The Influence of Landslides on Channel Flood Response: A Case Study from the Colorado Front Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, G. L.; Ryan, S. E.; Sholtes, J.; Rathburn, S. L.

2016-12-01

Studies have identified the role of thresholds and gradients in stream power in inducing geomorphic change during floods. At much longer time scales, empirical and modeling studies suggest the role of landslides in modifying channel response to external forcing (e.g. tectonic uplift); landslide-delivered sediment may behave as a tool, enhancing channel incision, or as cover, reducing channel incision. However, the influence of landslides on channel response to an individual flood event remains to be elucidated. Here we explore the influence of landslides on channel response to a 200-yr flood in Colorado, USA. From 9 - 15th September 2013 up to 450 mm of rain fell across a 100 km-wide swath of the Colorado Front Range, triggering >1000 landslides and inducing major flooding in several catchments. The flood caused extensive channel erosion, deposition and planform change, resulting in significant damage to property and infrastructure and even loss of life. We use a combination of pre and post flood LiDAR and field mapping to quantify geomorphic change in several catchments spanning the flooded region. We make a reach-by-reach analysis of channel geomorphic change metrics (e.g. volume of erosion) in relation to landslide sediment input and total stream power as calculated from radar-based rainfall measurements. Preliminary results suggest that landslide-sediment input may complicate the predictive relationship between channel erosion and stream power. Low volumes of landslide sediment input appear to enhance channel erosion (a tools effect), whilst very large volumes appear to reduce channel erosion (a cover effect). These results have implications for predicting channel response to floods and for flood planning and mitigation.

Application of fuzzy weight of evidence and data mining techniques in construction of flood susceptibility map of Poyang County, China.

PubMed

Hong, Haoyuan; Tsangaratos, Paraskevas; Ilia, Ioanna; Liu, Junzhi; Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, Wei

2018-06-01

In China, floods are considered as the most frequent natural disaster responsible for severe economic losses and serious damages recorded in agriculture and urban infrastructure. Based on the international experience prevention of flood events may not be completely possible, however identifying susceptible and vulnerable areas through prediction models is considered as a more visible task with flood susceptibility mapping being an essential tool for flood mitigation strategies and disaster preparedness. In this context, the present study proposes a novel approach to construct a flood susceptibility map in the Poyang County, JiangXi Province, China by implementing fuzzy weight of evidence (fuzzy-WofE) and data mining methods. The novelty of the presented approach is the usage of fuzzy-WofE that had a twofold purpose. Firstly, to create an initial flood susceptibility map in order to identify non-flood areas and secondly to weight the importance of flood related variables which influence flooding. Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) were implemented considering eleven flood related variables, namely: lithology, soil cover, elevation, slope angle, aspect, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, plan curvature, profile curvature and distance from river network. The efficiency of this new approach was evaluated using area under curve (AUC) which measured the prediction and success rates. According to the outcomes of the performed analysis, the fuzzy WofE-SVM model was the model with the highest predictive performance (AUC value, 0.9865) which also appeared to be statistical significant different from the other predictive models, fuzzy WofE-RF (AUC value, 0.9756) and fuzzy WofE-LR (AUC value, 0.9652). The proposed methodology and the produced flood susceptibility map could assist researchers and local governments in flood mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cascade reservoir flood control operation based on risk grading and warning in the Upper Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuejiao, M.; Chang, J.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the main idea for flood management. It is more effective for flood risk management to take various non-engineering measures. In this paper, a flood control operation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River was proposed to lower the flood risk of the water system with multi-reservoir by combining the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) and flood early warning together. Specifically, a discharge control chart was employed to build the joint RFCO simulation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River. And entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to establish a multi-factorial risk assessment model for flood warning grade. Furthermore, after determining the implementing mode of countermeasures with future inflow, an intelligent optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model for applicable water release scheme. In addition, another model without any countermeasure was set to be a comparative experiment. The results show that the model developed in this paper can further decrease the flood risk of water system with cascade reservoirs. It provides a new approach to flood risk management by coupling flood control operation and flood early warning of cascade reservoirs.

Close-range photogrammetric reconstruction of moraine dam failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westoby, M. J.; Brasington, J.; Glasser, N. F.; Hambrey, M. J.; Reynolds, J. M.

2012-04-01

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) from moraine-dammed lakes represent a high magnitude, low frequency catastrophic glacio-fluvial phenomena, with the potential to cause significant damage to property and infrastructure in high-mountain regions. Detailed accounts of GLOF dynamics, in particular the initiation and propagation of dam breaching are extremely rare, owing to their occurrence in often remote, inaccessible areas, as well as the impracticalities associated with attempting to directly instrument such high magnitude, turbulent flows. In addition to the dearth of detailed, first-hand observations of dam failures, reconstruction of breaches and failure mechanisms derived from morphological evidence is hampered by the lack of high-quality, high-resolution DTMs of remote alpine areas. Previous studies have therefore resorted to the use of coarse resolution data products (SRTM, ASTER GDEM) to quantify characteristics of failure events, e.g. pre-flood lake volume, dam height/width, which may give rise to considerable uncertainty in related numerical simulations and assessments of downstream flood hazards. In this paper we employ a novel low-cost, close-range photogrammetric technique, termed 'Structure-from-Motion' (SfM) to provide detailed in-situ reconstructions of dam and valley topography for two moraine dam complexes which have produced historical GLOFs in the Khumbu Himal, Nepal. Requiring little more than a consumer-grade digital camera and suitable ground control for implementation, the resolution of the final data products are comparable to that obtained using ground-based or airborne LiDAR. These data facilitate the extraction of precise estimates of dam (and breach) geometry, volumes of water and sediment removed during the outburst events, and the downstream channel topography. We conclude by directly comparing such key metrics derived from low-resolution topographic datasets, with those acquired in situ using the SfM technique, and discuss the implications for the reconstruction of flood dynamics.

Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2013-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments This study is conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan

Spatio-temporal variation of fish taxonomic composition in a South-East Asian flood-pulse system.

PubMed

Kong, Heng; Chevalier, Mathieu; Laffaille, Pascal; Lek, Sovan

2017-01-01

The Tonle Sap Lake (TSL) is a flood-pulse system. It is the largest natural lake in South-East Asia and constitutes one of the largest fisheries over the world, supporting the livelihood of million peoples. Nonetheless, the Mekong River Basin is changing rapidly due to accelerating water infrastructure development (hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and water supply) and climate change, bringing considerable modifications to the annual flood-pulse of the TSL. Such modifications are expected to have strong impacts on fish biodiversity and abundance. This paper aims to characterize the spatio-temporal variations of fish taxonomic composition and to highlights the underlying determinants of these variations. For this purpose, we used data collected from a community catch monitoring program conducted at six sites during 141 weeks, covering two full hydrological cycles. For each week, we estimated beta diversity as the total variance of the site-by-species community matrix and partitioned it into Local Contribution to Beta Diversity (LCBD) and Species Contribution to Beta Diversity (SCBD). We then performed multiple linear regressions to determine whether species richness, species abundances and water level explained the temporal variation in the contribution of site and species to beta diversity. Our results indicate strong temporal variation of beta diversity due to differential contributions of sites and species to the spatial variation of fish taxonomic composition. We further found that the direction, the shape and the relative effect of species richness, abundances and water level on temporal variation in LCBD and SCBD values greatly varied among sites, thus suggesting spatial variation in the processes leading to temporal variation in community composition. Overall, our results suggest that fish taxonomic composition is not homogeneously distributed over space and time and is likely to be impacted in the future if the flood-pulse dynamic of the system is altered by human activities.

A new service offered by rural environment to the city: stormwater reception.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiaradia, Enrico Antonio; Weber, Enrico; Masseroni, Daniele; Battista Bischetti, Gian; Gandolfi, Claudio

2017-04-01

Stormwaters are the main cause of urban floods in many urbanized areas. Historically, stormwater management practices have been focused on building infrastructures that achieve runoff attenuation through the storage of water volumes in large detention basins. However, this approach has proven to be insufficient to resolve the problem as well as it is difficult to implement in areas with a dense urban fabric. Nowadays, around the world, water managers are increasingly embracing "soft path" approaches, that aim to manage the excess of urban runoff through Green Infrastructures, where detention capacities are provided by the retention proprieties of soil and vegetation elements. Along the line of these new sustainable stormwater management practices, the aim of this study is to promote a further paradigm-shift with respect to the traditional practices i.e. to investigate the possibility to use the already existing green infrastructures of the peri-urban rural areas as reception element of the surplus of urban runoff. Many territories in Northern Italy, for example. are characterized by a high density of irrigation canals and agricultural fields that, in some cases, are isolated or pent-up inside urbanized areas. Both these elements may represent storage volumes for accumulating stormwater from urban areas. In this work, we implemented a holistic framework, based on Self Organized Map technique (SOM), with the objective to produce a spatial map of the stormwater reception level that can be provided by the rural environment. We elaborated physiographic characteristics of irrigation canals and agricultural fields through the SOM algorithm obtaining as output a series of cluster groups with the same level of receptivity. This procedure was applied on an area of 1933 km2 around the city of Milan and a map of 250x250m resolution was obtained with three different levels of stormwater reception capacity. About 50% of rural environment has a good level of reception and only 30% and 20% of rural areas have respectively a moderate and scarce level of reception. By the results we can conclude that the rural environment could become a valuable structural alternative to the traditional stormwater control methods, ascribing the rural environment to a new role in urban flood protection from.

Heterogeneous Data Fusion Methods for Disaster Risk Assessment using Grid Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

2014-05-01

In recent years, a risk-oriented approach to manage disasters has been adopted. Risk is a function of two arguments: hazard probability and vulnerability [1]. In order to assess flood risk, for example, aggregation of heterogeneous data acquired from multiple sources is required. Outputs from hydrological and hydraulic models make it possible to predict floods; in situ observations such as river level and flows are used for early warning and models calibration. Remote sensing observations can be effectively used for rapid mapping in case of emergencies, and can be assimilated into models. One point that is mutual for all datasets is their geospatial nature. In order to enable operational assessment of disaster risk, appropriate technology is necessary. In this paper we discuss different strategies to heterogeneous data fusion and show their application in the domain of disaster monitoring and risk assessment. In particular, two case-studies are presented. The first one focuses on the use of time-series of satellite imagery to flood hazard mapping and flood risk assessment. Flooded areas are extracted from satellite images to generate a maximum flood extent image for each flood event. These maps are fused to determine relative frequency of inundation (RFI) [2]. The RFI values are compared to relative water depth generated from the LISFLOOD-FP model. The model is calibrated against the satellite-derived flood extent. The model with different combinations of Manning's parameters was run in the Grid environment at Space Research Institute NASU-SSAU [3], and the optimal set of parameters was found. It is shown that RFI and water depth exhibit the same probabilistic distribution which is confirmed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Therefore, it justifies the use of RFI values for risk assessment. The second case-study deals with quantitative estimation of drought risk in Ukraine based on satellite data. Drought hazard mapping is performed based on the use of vegetation health index (VHI) derived from NOAA satellites, and the extreme value theory techniques. Drought vulnerability is assessed by estimating the crop areas and crop yield to quantify potential impact of a drought on crop production. Finally, drought hazard and vulnerability maps are fused to derive a drought risk map. [1] N.N. Kussul, B.V. Sokolov, Y.I. Zyelyk, V.A. Zelentsov, S.V. Skakun, and A.Yu. Shelestov, "Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Heterogeneous Geospatial Information," J. of Autom. and Inf. Sci., 42(12), pp. 32-45, 2010. [2] S. Skakun, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, and O. Kussul, "Flood Hazard and Flood Risk Assessment Using a Time Series of Satellite Images: A Case Study in Namibia," Risk Analysis, 2013, doi: 10.1111/risa.12156. [3] L. Hluchy, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, S. Skakun, O. Kravchenko, Y. Gripich, P. Kopp, E. Lupian, "The Data Fusion Grid Infrastructure: Project Objectives and Achievements," Computing and Informatics, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 319-334, 2010.

A twenty-first century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, A.B.; Anderson, M.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ralph, F.M.; Hinojosa, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Hartman, R.K.; Reynolds, D.W.; Johnson, L.E.; Schneider, T.L.; Cifelli, R.; Toth, Z.; Gutman, S.I.; King, C.W.; Gehrke, F.; Johnston, P.E.; Walls, C.; Mann, Dorte; Gottas, D.J.; Coleman, T.

2013-01-01

During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. In order to improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, is required. Here we describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue – water management – in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most severe wintertime storms.

Bed-material entrainment and associated transportation infrastructure problems in streams of the Edwards Plateau, central Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heitmuller, Franklin T.; Asquith, William H.

2008-01-01

The Texas Department of Transportation commonly builds and maintains low-water crossings (LWCs) over streams in the Edwards Plateau in Central Texas. LWCs are low-height structures, typically constructed of concrete and asphalt, that provide acceptable passage over seasonal rivers or streams with relatively low normal-depth flow. They are designed to accommodate flow by roadway overtopping during high-flow events. The streams of the Edwards Plateau are characterized by cobble- and gravel-sized bed material and highly variable flow regimes. Low base flows that occur most of the time occasionally are interrupted by severe floods. The floods entrain and transport substantial loads of bed material in the stream channels. As a result, LWCs over streams in the Edwards Plateau are bombarded and abraded by bed material during floods and periodically must be maintained or even replaced.

How far downstream do dams impact streamflow?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, T.

2017-12-01

Water infrastructure can be a double-edged sword. For example, dams can provide significant flood protection and stable water supplies, but they negatively impact river ecosystems. As the United States enters an era of dam decommissioning instead of dam building, it raises the question of how far downstream dams provide protection against flood peaks and sustaining environmental flows. This study uses USGS streamflow observations, the National Inventory of Dams, and VIC-modeled streamflow as a proxy for naturalized streamflow to evaluate the scale at which dams impact a variety of hydrologic signatures such as flood return period flows, streamflow variability, and low flows. Results over the Delaware River show that the impact of dams quickly dissipates as one moves downstream, but this is due to the basin's characteristics. This analysis is performed over the contiguous United States, quantifying the length scale of impact as a function of dam capacity, position on the river network, and the hydroclimatology.

Subsidence due to peat oxidation and impact on drainage infrastructures in a farmland catchment south of the Venice Lagoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gambolati, G.; Putti, M.; Teatini, P.; Gasparetto Stori, G.

2006-03-01

Large agricultural areas reclaimed in the past century, south of the Venice Lagoon, have experienced significant land subsidence due to oxidation of peat organic soils. This has exposed the region to flood hazard particularly during severe storms and has contributed to increase the marginal management cost of the infrastructures (ditches, levees, pumping stations) designed to operate the drainage system. Direct measurements and indirect evidence from the channel network suggest a land settlement between 1.5 and 2 m over the past 70 years. This paper provides an overview of the problem with important information on its most recent evolution.

Flood information for flood-plain planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bue, Conrad D.

1967-01-01

Floods are natural and normal phenomena. They are catastrophic simply because man occupies the flood plain, the highwater channel of a river. Man occupies flood plains because it is convenient and profitable to do so, but he must purchase his occupancy at a price-either sustain flood damage, or provide flood-control facilities. Although large sums of money have been, and are being, spent for flood control, flood damage continues to mount. However, neither complete flood control nor abandonment of the flood plain is practicable. Flood plains are a valuable resource and will continue to be occupied, but the nature and degree of occupancy should be compatible with the risk involved and with the degree of protection that is practicable to provide. It is primarily to meet the needs for defining the risk that the flood-inundation maps of the U.S. Geological Survey are prepared.

Laboratory measurements of acoustic, electrical resistivity, and erodibility of soils as a function of compaction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Catastrophic floods resulting from the failure of dam and levee infrastructures can paralyze the economy and social life of large populations for long periods of time. The United States has over 100,000 miles of levees and the National Inventory of Dams lists approximately 79,000 U.S. dams. The de...

Responding to National Water Resources Challenges

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

Intergovernmental collaboration is necessary to ad- dress issues ranging from navigation and intermodal transport to flood risk management to...quality caused by runoff from the poultry industry and to avoid interstate litigation. This partnership is bringing together public (Natural...Drinking Water Act and $5 billion to ad- dress aging infrastructure needs, especially to treat sewage. Missouri expressed concern about its aging

Flash flood characterisation of the Haor area of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, B.; Suman, A.

2012-04-01

Haors are large bowl-shaped flood plain depressions located mostly in north-eastern part of Bangladesh covering about 25% of the entire region. During dry season haors are used for agriculture and during rainy season it is used as fisheries. Haors have profound ecological importance. About 8000 migratory wild birds visit the area annually. Some of the haors are declared at Ramsar sites. Haors are frequently affected by the flash floods due to hilly topography and steep slope of the rivers draining the area. These flash floods spill onto low-lying flood plain lands in the region, inundating crops, damaging infrastructure by erosion and often causing loss of lives and properties. Climate change is exacerbating the situation. For appropriate risk mitigation mechanism it is necessary to explore flood characteristics of that region. The area is not at all studied well. Under a current project a numerical 1D2D model based on MIKE Flood is developed to study the flooding characteristics and estimate the climate change impacts on the haor region. Under this study the progression of flood levels at some key haors in relation to the water level data at specified gauges in the region is analysed. As the region is at the border with India so comparing with the gauges at the border with India is carried out. The flooding in the Haor area is associated with the rainfall in the upstream catchment in India (Meghalaya, Barak and Tripura basins in India). The flood propagation in some of the identified haors in relation to meteorological forcing in the three basins in India is analysed as well. Subsequently, a ranking of haors is done based on individual risks. Based on the IPCC recommendation the precipitation scenario in the upstream catchments under climate change is considered. The study provides the fundamental inputs for preparing a flood risk management plan of the region.

Coastal Floods: Urban Planning as a Resilience System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diez Gonzalez, J. J.; Esteban, M. D.; Monnot, J. V.; López Gutiérrez, J. S.; Negro Valdecantos, V.; Calderón, E. J.; Márquez Paniagua, P.; Silvestre, J. M.

2012-04-01

Despite some research efforts can be found across the literature, FRe system (Flood resilient system) is still a vaguely defined concept. Therefore, a comprehensive presentation of existing FRe systems would provide valuable contribution in order to illuminate objects laying behind this term. A systematical literature review scanning existing FRe objects will submerge us in a melting pot involving an extremely wide and heterogeneous range of elements like land planning, opening barriers, river channeling, rain forecasting… Carrying out an analyze of the resulting matter and focusing on the nature and spatial range of application of each element, a FRe objects comprehensive typology will be sorted out, leading into the end to a better understanding of the ways human societies can improve their resilience against floods. Coastal areas have been characterized by an urban expansion due mainly to the increase and displacement of the population, being this process highly increasing during the last century. On the other hand, climate has been changing leading to the increase of coastal floods, through both sea level rise and several meteorological phenomena accentuation. And also, other longer term local/regional coastal changes, most occasionally favoring floods, interfere leading to more frequent and intense flood risks and damages. As "living with floods" became an objective in many coastal cities, the previous clas-sification will be put into practice focusing on one particular FRe system scale: Urban Flood Resilience. This resilience can be achieved by means of planning procedures and building infrastructures, but in many cases these measures cannot be enough, having to be complemented with different technologies and systems. With suitable applications, Flood Resilience Systems substantially reduce damages, costs and health impacts associated with flood hazards. The importance of the urban planning as a Flood Resilience System in coastal areas will be analyzed in the research project FP7 - SMARTEST by means of different cases study: cold drop floods (Valencia 1776, 1957 and 1982; and Murcia, 1879 and 1997), hurricanes on Caribbean and western North-Atlantic areas, or to typhoons.

Infrastructure development and agricultural exposure to climate variability and change: lessons from the Limarí basin in Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Alvarez, P.; Melo, O.; Dale, L. L.; Meza, F. J.

2012-12-01

The Limarí basin, located in Central Chile, is a world famous example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Before the infrastructure was developed low value crops such as cereals dominated land use acreage. Today high value crops such as vineyards, orchards and vegetables account for almost 50% of total land and cereals have almost disappear. Key to this evolution have been the reduction in water supply variability, access to international markets, increased irrigation efficiency, and the existence of water markets and other flexible and strong institutions that have helped moving the water from low to high value uses. These factors are related to each other sharing infrastructure development as a common root. The system of reservoirs in the Limarí basin was designed and has been operated since its construction with the premise that droughts in this basin do not last longer than 4 years. Until recently that had been the case and farmers have been able to withstand the impacts of droughts. When faced with water supply reductions farmers would select from a set of options to accommodate their needs including: water market participation, groundwater extraction and crop irrigation and crop acreage decisions. The use of these options has even allowed increasing total irrigated land mostly through the expansion of permanent water demand crops. In the past 9 years however, the basin has experienced a longer than usual drought, interrupting the reservoir refilling cycle that characterized climate variability in the region. This situation has led to dramatically low reservoir levels and continuous reductions in water supply. In addition, due to the already high levels of irrigation efficiency and large amount of acreage devoted to permanent water demand crops, the effectiveness of the portfolio of options available to farmers to accommodate to these stressing conditions has been reduced. It can be derived from this analysis that infrastructure development in this basin has paradoxically increased exposure to the impacts of climate variability and also to the impacts of a drier future as projected with climate change in this basin. This situation has been referred previously as the "safe development" paradox. A typical example of this paradox is the flood-threat-levee-construction relationship whereby in response to flood threat, structural measures such as constructing levees are adopted, increasing the encroachment of people living in floodplains and hence increasing their exposure to flood impacts. As in the case of people living in floodplains behind levees, the development of the Limarí basin probably responds to rational decisions of private actors who consider that the climate is stationary. It is also probable that building the reservoirs 40 years ago was a good decision with benefits being much higher than construction costs. However, the Limarí basin highlights some challenging questions for future decisions. Understanding how to design new infrastructure (e.g. what should be the expected lifetime of reservoirs) or operate existing infrastructure (e.g. fixed operating rules vs. adaptive management) opens new research arena in a changing world.

Flood Vulnerability Analysis of the part of Karad Region, Satara District, Maharashtra using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warghat, Sumedh R.; Das, Sandipan; Doad, Atul; Mali, Sagar; Moon, Vishal S.

2012-07-01

Karad City is situated on the bank of confluence of river Krishna & Koyana, which is severely flood prone area. The floodwaters enter the city through the roads and disrupt the infrastructure in the whole city. Furthermore, due to negligence of the authorities and unplanned growth of the city, the people living in the city have harnessed the natural flow of water by constructing unnecessary embankments in the river Koyna. Due to this reason now river koyna is flowing in the form of a narrow channel, which very easily over-flows during very minor flooding.Flood Vulnerabilty Analysis has been done for the karad region of satara district, maharashtra using remote sensing and geographic information system technique. The aim of this study is to identify flood vulnerability zone by using GIS and RS technique and an attempt has been to demonstrat the application of remote sensing and GIS in order to map flood vulnerabilty area by utilizing ArcMap, and Erdas software. Flood vulnerabilty analysis of part the Karad Regian of Satara District, Maharashtra has been carried out with the objectives - Identify the Flood Prone area in the Koyana and Krishna river basin, Calculate surface runoff and Delineate flood sensitive areas. Delineate classified hazard Map, Evaluate the Flood affected area, Prepare the Flood Vulnerability Map by utilizing Remote Sensing and GIS technique. (C.J. Kumanan;S.M. Ramasamy)The study is based on GIS and spatial technique is used for analysis and understanding of flood problem in Karad Tahsil. The flood affected areas of the different magnitude has been identified and mapped using Arc GIS software. The analysis is useful for local planning authority for identification of risk areas and taking proper decision in right moment. In the analysis causative factors for flooding in watershed are taken into account as annual rainfall, size of watershed, basin slope, drainage density of natural channels and land use. (Dinand Alkema; Farah Aziz.)This study of flood vulnerable area determination in a part of Karad Tahsil is employed to illustrate the different approaches.

Upstream Structural Management Measures for an Urban Area Flooding in Turkey and their Consequences on Flood Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akyurek, Z.; Bozoglu, B.; Girayhan, T.

2015-12-01

Flooding has the potential to cause significant impacts to economic activities as well as to disrupt or displace populations. Changing climate regimes such as extreme precipitation events increase flood vulnerability and put additional stresses on infrastructure. In this study the flood modelling in an urbanized area, namely Samsun-Terme in Blacksea region of Turkey is done. MIKE21 with flexible grid is used in 2- dimensional shallow water flow modelling. 1/1000 scaled maps with the buildings for the urbanized area and 1/5000 scaled maps for the rural parts are used to obtain DTM needed in the flood modelling. The bathymetry of the river is obtained from additional surveys. The main river passing through the urbanized area has a capacity of Q5 according to the design discharge obtained by simple ungauged discharge estimation depending on catchment area only. The effects of the available structures like bridges across the river on the flooding are presented. The upstream structural measures are studied on scenario basis. Four sub-catchments of Terme River are considered as contributing the downstream flooding. The existing circumstance of the Terme River states that the meanders of the river have a major effect on the flood situation and lead to approximately 35% reduction in the peak discharge between upstream and downstream of the river. It is observed that if the flow from the upstream catchments can be retarded through a detention pond constructed in at least two of the upstream catchments, estimated Q100 flood can be conveyed by the river without overtopping from the river channel. The operation of the upstream detention ponds and the scenarios to convey Q500 without causing flooding are also presented. Structural management measures to address changes in flood characteristics in water management planning are discussed. Flood risk is obtained by using the flood hazard maps and water depth-damage functions plotted for a variety of building types and occupancies. The estimated mean annual hazard for the area is calculated as $340 000 and it is estimated that the upstream structural management measures can decrease the direct economic risk 11% for the 500 return period flood.

Soil erosion and sediment connectivity modelling in Burgundy vineyards: case study of Mercurey, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fressard, Mathieu; Cossart, Étienne; Lejot, Jêrome; Michel, Kristell; Perret, Franck; Christol, Aurélien; Mathian, Hélène; Navratil, Oldrich

2017-04-01

This research aims at assessing the impact of agricultural landscape structure on soil erosion and sediment connectivity at the catchment scale. The investigations were conducted the vineyards of Mercurey (Burgundy, France), characterized by important issues related to soil loss, flash floods and associated management infrastructures maintenance. The methodology is based on two main steps that include (1) field investigations and (2) modelling. The field investigations consists in DEM acquisition by LiDAR imaging from a drone, soil mapping and human infrastructures impacting runoff classification and mapping (such as crop rows, storm water-basins, drainage network, roads, etc.). These data aims at supplying the models with field observations. The modelling strategy is based on two main steps: First, the modelling of soil sensitivity to erosion, using the spatial application of the RUSLE equation. Secondly, to assess the sediment connectivity in this area, a model based on graph theory developed by Cossart and Fressard (2017) is tested. The results allow defining the influence of different anthropogenic structures on the sediment connectivity and soil erosion at the basin scale. A set of sub-basins influenced by various anthropogenic infrastructures have been identified and show contrasted sensitivities to erosion. The modelling of sediment connectivity show that the runoff pattern is strongly influenced by the vine rows orientation and the drainage network. I has also permitted to identify non collected (by storm water-basins) areas that strongly contribute to the turbid floods sediment supply and to soil loss during high intensity precipitations events.

Influence of climate change on flood magnitude and seasonality in the Arga River catchment in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garijo, Carlos; Mediero, Luis

2018-04-01

Climate change projections suggest that extremes, such as floods, will modify their behaviour in the future. Detailed catchment-scale studies are needed to implement the European Union Floods Directive and give recommendations for flood management and design of hydraulic infrastructure. In this study, a methodology to quantify changes in future flood magnitude and seasonality due to climate change at a catchment scale is proposed. Projections of 24 global climate models are used, with 10 being downscaled by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET) and 14 from the EURO-CORDEX project, under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the Fifth Assessment Report provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Downscaled climate models provided by the AEMET were corrected in terms of bias. The HBV rainfall-runoff model was selected to simulate the catchment hydrological behaviour. Simulations were analysed through both annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold (POT) series. The results show a decrease in the magnitude of extreme floods for the climate model projections downscaled by the AEMET. However, results for the climate model projections downscaled by EURO-CORDEX show differing trends, depending on the RCP. A small decrease in the flood magnitude was noticed for the RCP 4.5, while an increase was found for the RCP 8.5. Regarding the monthly seasonality analysis performed by using the POT series, a delay in the flood timing from late-autumn to late-winter is identified supporting the findings of recent studies performed with observed data in recent decades.

Analysis of road traffic obstructions caused by the central European flood in June 2013 in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessel, Tina

2014-05-01

The flood in June 2013 caused in Germany severe damage to infrastructure and has had a great impact on transportation. Traffic was disrupted in the interregional transportation network including federal highways and long distance railways. Researchers from the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) aim to develop rapid assessment tools which allow a science based estimation of disaster impacts. This is part of a larger project called Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA). During the flood event, the CEDIM FDA group on transportation disruptions monitored and recorded traffic reports in Germany to obtain accurate information on road traffic obstructions due to the flood. A rapid initial evaluation of the data was carried out for federal and interstate highways on a district level for the period of May 31 till June 4 2013. In this evaluation, the causes and types of traffic obstruction, as well as the number and duration of flood-caused disruptions are considered. In the evaluated time period of five days, an amount of more than 4,800 hours of flood-related traffic obstructions could be observed in a total of 89 districts. Major traffic disruptions were located in the districts along the Mulde and in the foothills of the Alps. This first initial evaluation will be followed by a detailed statistical analysis including all data collected during the flood event. To assess the impacts of the flood on traffic, a simple traffic simulation considering the disruptions will be carried out using a gravity model.

Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

2018-05-01

Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

Mining IP to Domain Name Interactions to Detect DNS Flood Attacks on Recursive DNS Servers.

PubMed

Alonso, Roberto; Monroy, Raúl; Trejo, Luis A

2016-08-17

The Domain Name System (DNS) is a critical infrastructure of any network, and, not surprisingly a common target of cybercrime. There are numerous works that analyse higher level DNS traffic to detect anomalies in the DNS or any other network service. By contrast, few efforts have been made to study and protect the recursive DNS level. In this paper, we introduce a novel abstraction of the recursive DNS traffic to detect a flooding attack, a kind of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS). The crux of our abstraction lies on a simple observation: Recursive DNS queries, from IP addresses to domain names, form social groups; hence, a DDoS attack should result in drastic changes on DNS social structure. We have built an anomaly-based detection mechanism, which, given a time window of DNS usage, makes use of features that attempt to capture the DNS social structure, including a heuristic that estimates group composition. Our detection mechanism has been successfully validated (in a simulated and controlled setting) and with it the suitability of our abstraction to detect flooding attacks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that work is successful in using this abstraction to detect these kinds of attacks at the recursive level. Before concluding the paper, we motivate further research directions considering this new abstraction, so we have designed and tested two additional experiments which exhibit promising results to detect other types of anomalies in recursive DNS servers.

Mining IP to Domain Name Interactions to Detect DNS Flood Attacks on Recursive DNS Servers

PubMed Central

Alonso, Roberto; Monroy, Raúl; Trejo, Luis A.

2016-01-01

The Domain Name System (DNS) is a critical infrastructure of any network, and, not surprisingly a common target of cybercrime. There are numerous works that analyse higher level DNS traffic to detect anomalies in the DNS or any other network service. By contrast, few efforts have been made to study and protect the recursive DNS level. In this paper, we introduce a novel abstraction of the recursive DNS traffic to detect a flooding attack, a kind of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS). The crux of our abstraction lies on a simple observation: Recursive DNS queries, from IP addresses to domain names, form social groups; hence, a DDoS attack should result in drastic changes on DNS social structure. We have built an anomaly-based detection mechanism, which, given a time window of DNS usage, makes use of features that attempt to capture the DNS social structure, including a heuristic that estimates group composition. Our detection mechanism has been successfully validated (in a simulated and controlled setting) and with it the suitability of our abstraction to detect flooding attacks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that work is successful in using this abstraction to detect these kinds of attacks at the recursive level. Before concluding the paper, we motivate further research directions considering this new abstraction, so we have designed and tested two additional experiments which exhibit promising results to detect other types of anomalies in recursive DNS servers. PMID:27548169

Flood frequency analysis - the challenge of using historical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjorn

2015-04-01

Estimates of high flood quantiles are needed for many applications, .e.g. dam safety assessments are based on the 1000 years flood, whereas the dimensioning of important infrastructure requires estimates of the 200 year flood. The flood quantiles are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution to a dataset of high flows comprising either annual maximum values or peaks over a selected threshold. Since the record length of data is limited compared to the desired flood quantile, the estimated flood magnitudes are based on a high degree of extrapolation. E.g. the longest time series available in Norway are around 120 years, and as a result any estimation of a 1000 years flood will require extrapolation. One solution is to extend the temporal dimension of a data series by including information about historical floods before the stream flow was systematically gaugeded. Such information could be flood marks or written documentation about flood events. The aim of this study was to evaluate the added value of using historical flood data for at-site flood frequency estimation. The historical floods were included in two ways by assuming: (1) the size of (all) floods above a high threshold within a time interval is known; and (2) the number of floods above a high threshold for a time interval is known. We used a Bayesian model formulation, with MCMC used for model estimation. This estimation procedure allowed us to estimate the predictive uncertainty of flood quantiles (i.e. both sampling and parameter uncertainty is accounted for). We tested the methods using 123 years of systematic data from Bulken in western Norway. In 2014 the largest flood in the systematic record was observed. From written documentation and flood marks we had information from three severe floods in the 18th century and they were likely to exceed the 2014 flood. We evaluated the added value in two ways. First we used the 123 year long streamflow time series and investigated the effect of having several shorter series' which could be supplemented with a limited number of known large flood events. Then we used the three historical floods from the 18th century combined with the whole and subsets of the 123 years of systematic observations. In the latter case several challenges were identified: i) The possibility to transfer water levels to river streamflows due to man made changes in the river profile, (ii) The stationarity of the data might be questioned since the three largest historical floods occurred during the "little ice age" with different climatic conditions compared to today.

Analyzing Flood Vulnerability Due to Sea Level Rise Using K-Means Clustering: Implications for Regional Flood Mitigation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hummel, M.; Wood, N. J.; Stacey, M. T.; Schweikert, A.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.

2016-12-01

The threat of tidal flooding in coastal regions is exacerbated by sea level rise (SLR), which can lead to more frequent and persistent nuisance flooding and permanent inundation of low-lying areas. When coupled with extreme storm events, SLR also increases the extent and depth of flooding due to storm surges. To mitigate these impacts, bayfront communities are considering a variety of options for shoreline protection, including restoration of natural features such as wetlands and hardening of the shoreline using levees and sea walls. These shoreline modifications can produce changes in the tidal dynamics in a basin, either by increasing dissipation of tidal energy or enhancing tidal amplification [1]. As a result, actions taken by individual communities not only impact local inundation, but can also have implications for flooding on a regional scale. However, regional collaboration is lacking in flood mitigation planning, which is often done on a community-by-community basis. This can lead to redundancy in planning efforts and can also have adverse effects on communities that are not included in discussions about shoreline infrastructure improvements. Using flooding extent outputs from a hydrodynamic model of San Francisco Bay, we performed a K-means clustering analysis to identify similarities between 65 bayfront communities in terms of the spatial, demographic, and economic characteristics of their vulnerable assets for a suite of SLR and storm scenarios. Our clustering analysis identifies communities with similar vulnerabilities and allows for more effective collaboration and decision-making at a regional level by encouraging comparable communities to work together and pool resources to find effective adaptation strategies as flooding becomes more frequent and severe. [1] Holleman RC, Stacey MT (2014) Coupling of sea level rise, tidal amplification, and inundation. Journal of Physical Oceanography 44:1439-1455.

Integrating heterogeneous earth observation data for assessment of high-resolution inundation boundaries generated during flood emergencies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sava, E.; Cervone, G.; Kalyanapu, A. J.; Sampson, K. M.

2017-12-01

The increasing trend in flooding events, paired with rapid urbanization and an aging infrastructure is projected to enhance the risk of catastrophic losses and increase the frequency of both flash and large area floods. During such events, it is critical for decision makers and emergency responders to have access to timely actionable knowledge regarding preparedness, emergency response, and recovery before, during and after a disaster. Large volumes of data sets derived from sophisticated sensors, mobile phones, and social media feeds are increasingly being used to improve citizen services and provide clues to the best way to respond to emergencies through the use of visualization and GIS mapping. Such data, coupled with recent advancements in data fusion techniques of remote sensing with near real time heterogeneous datasets have allowed decision makers to more efficiently extract precise and relevant knowledge and better understand how damage caused by disasters have real time effects on urban population. This research assesses the feasibility of integrating multiple sources of contributed data into hydrodynamic models for flood inundation simulation and estimating damage assessment. It integrates multiple sources of high-resolution physiographic data such as satellite remote sensing imagery coupled with non-authoritative data such as Civil Air Patrol (CAP) and `during-event' social media observations of flood inundation in order to improve the identification of flood mapping. The goal is to augment remote sensing imagery with new open-source datasets to generate flood extend maps at higher temporal and spatial resolution. The proposed methodology is applied on two test cases, relative to the 2013 Boulder Colorado flood and the 2015 floods in Texas.

33 CFR 239.7 - Separation of flood control works from urban drainage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Separation of flood control works... OF THE ARMY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WATER RESOURCES POLICIES AND AUTHORITIES: FEDERAL PARTICIPATION IN COVERED FLOOD CONTROL CHANNELS § 239.7 Separation of flood control works from urban drainage. Covered...

33 CFR 208.32 - Sanford Dam and Lake Meredith, Canadian River, Tex.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Lake Meredith in the interest of flood control as follows: (a) Flood control storage in the reservoir... control pool) initially amounts to 462,100 acre-feet. Whenever the reservoir level is within this... as much as practicable the flood damage below the reservoir. All flood control releases shall be made...

33 CFR 208.32 - Sanford Dam and Lake Meredith, Canadian River, Tex.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Lake Meredith in the interest of flood control as follows: (a) Flood control storage in the reservoir... control pool) initially amounts to 462,100 acre-feet. Whenever the reservoir level is within this... as much as practicable the flood damage below the reservoir. All flood control releases shall be made...

Future flood risk in the tropics as measured by changes in extreme runoff intensity is strongly influenced by plant-physiological responses to rising CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kooperman, G. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Koven, C.; Lindsay, K. T.; Swann, A. L. S.; Randerson, J. T.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of intense flooding events, and thus the risk of flood-related mortality, infrastructure damage, and economic loss. Assessments of future flooding from global climate models based only on precipitation intensity and temperature neglect important processes that occur within the land-surface, particularly the impacts of plant-physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 reduces stomatal conductance, leading to less water loss through transpiration and higher soil moisture. For a given precipitation rate, higher soil moisture decreases the amount of rainwater that infiltrates the surface and increases runoff. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant-physiological and radiative-greenhouse effects on changes in extreme runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant-physiological effects contribute to only a small increase in precipitation intensity, but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one-half of the 99th percentile runoff intensity change and one-third of the 99.9th percentile change. Comprehensive assessments of future flooding risk need to account for the physiological as well as radiative impacts of CO2 in order to better inform flood prediction and mitigation practices.

Flood Inundation Mapping and Emergency Operations during Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, N. Z.; Cotter, J.; Gao, S.; Bedient, P. B.; Yung, A.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey struck the Gulf Coast as Category 4 on August 25, 2017 with devastating and life-threatening floods in Texas. Harris County received up to 49 inches of rainfall over a 5-day period and experienced flooding level and impacts beyond any previous storm in Houston's history. The depth-duration-frequency analysis reveals that the areal average rainfall for Brays Bayou surpasses the 500-year rainfall in both 24 and 48 hours. To cope with this unprecedented event, the researchers at the University of Texas at Arlington and Rice University worked closely with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the National Weather Service (NWS), the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM), Walter P. Moore and Associates, Inc. and Halff Associates, to conduct a series of meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to delineate flood inundation maps. Up to eight major watersheds in Harris County were delineated based the available QPE data from WGRFC. The inundation map over Brays Bayou with their impacts from Hurricane Harvey was delineated in comparison with those of 100-, 500-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) design storms. This presentation will provide insights for both engineers and planners to re-evaluate the existing flood infrastructure and policy, which will help build Houston stronger for future extreme storms. The collaborative effort among the federal, academic, and private entities clearly demonstrates an effective approach for flood inundation mapping initiatives for the nation.

The Influence Of Antecedent Conditions On Flood Risk In Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bischiniotis, K.

2017-12-01

Flood risk management has traditionally focused on long-term flood protection measures. However, due to high investment costs many lower-income countries are not able to afford hard infrastructure that provides the desired safety levels. Consequently, timely warning of not only extreme events is crucial in risk mitigation at these places. Most flood warning systems have predominantly focused on precipitation as the main predictive factor with lead times of hours or days. Nevertheless, other factors such as anomalous positive water storage, soil saturation and evapotranspiration also affect the flood build-up period. Gaining insights in the processes occurring during this period can increase warning lead times, resulting in more effective preparation. This study follows a pragmatic approach to analyse the hydro-meteorological pre-conditions of 501 damaging floods over the period 1980 to 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa. These are separated into a) weather scale (0-7 days) and b) seasonal scale conditions (up to 6 months) before each event in a way that the two periods do not overlap. The 7-day preceding precipitation (PRE7) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) reflect the conditions in the two time scale domains, respectively. Using the flood onset date and the location derived from NatCatSERVICE database, the antecedent conditions of each flood are systematically compared to the same conditions during the other years of the dataset, during which no floods were reported. Results indicate that high PRE7 does not always justify the flood generation by itself since there were several cases where similar magnitude precipitation events did not lead to flooding. The SPEI in the end of the flood onset month seems to be a good flood monitoring tool as in most cases it well reflects the wet conditions (80% of the floods). The SPEIs of different averaging times prior to flood events also show that many floods were preceded by wet conditions (70% , 65%, and 57% for averaging time of 1, 3 and 6 months, respectively. Finally, we show that bringing together weather and seasonal-scale conditions can result in an increased flooding likelihood, which in turn might help humanitarian organizations and decision-makers extend the period of the preventive flood risk management planning.

UAVSAR and TerraSAR-X Based InSAR Detection of Localized Subsidence in the New Orleans Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blom, R. G.; An, K.; Jones, C. E.; Latini, D.

2014-12-01

Vulnerability of the US Gulf coast to inundation has received increased attention since hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Compounding effects of sea level rise, wetland loss, and regional and local subsidence makes flood protection a difficult challenge, and particularly for the New Orleans area. Key to flood protection is precise knowledge of elevations and elevation changes. Analysis of historical and continuing geodetic measurements show surprising complexity, including locations subsiding more rapidly than considered during planning of hurricane protection and coastal restoration projects. Combining traditional, precise geodetic data with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations can provide geographically dense constraints on surface deformation. The Gulf Coast environment is challenging for InSAR techniques, especially with systems not designed for interferometry. We use two InSAR capable systems, the L- band (24 cm wavelength) airborne JPL/NASA UAVSAR, and the DLR/EADS Astrium spaceborne TerraSAR X-band (3 cm wavelength), and compare results. First, we are applying pair-wise InSAR to the longer wavelength UAVSAR data to detect localized elevation changes potentially impacting flood protection infrastructure from 2009 - 2014. We focus on areas on and near flood protection infrastructure to identify changes indicative of subsidence, structural deformation, and/or seepage. The Spaceborne TerraSAR X-band SAR system has relatively frequent observations, and dense persistent scatterers in urban areas, enabling measurement of very small displacements. We compare L-band UAVSAR results with permanent scatterer (PS-InSAR) and Short Baseline Subsets (SBAS) interferometric analyses of a stack composed by 28 TerraSAR X-band images acquired over the same period. Thus we can evaluate results from the different radar frequencies and analyses techniques. Preliminary results indicate subsidence features potentially of a variety of causes, including ground water pumping to post recent construction ground compaction. Our overall goal is to enable incorporation of InSAR into the decision making process via identification and delineation of areas of persistent subsidence, and provide input to improve monitoring and planning in flood risk areas.

Empirical models for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by debris flows and sediment-laden floods in the transverse ranges of southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gartner, Joseph E.; Cannon, Susan H.; Santi, Paul M

2014-01-01

Debris flows and sediment-laden floods in the Transverse Ranges of southern California pose severe hazards to nearby communities and infrastructure. Frequent wildfires denude hillslopes and increase the likelihood of these hazardous events. Debris-retention basins protect communities and infrastructure from the impacts of debris flows and sediment-laden floods and also provide critical data for volumes of sediment deposited at watershed outlets. In this study, we supplement existing data for the volumes of sediment deposited at watershed outlets with newly acquired data to develop new empirical models for predicting volumes of sediment produced by watersheds located in the Transverse Ranges of southern California. The sediment volume data represent a broad sample of conditions found in Ventura, Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties, California. The measured volumes of sediment, watershed morphology, distributions of burn severity within each watershed, the time since the most recent fire, triggering storm rainfall conditions, and engineering soil properties were analyzed using multiple linear regressions to develop two models. A “long-term model” was developed for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by both debris flows and floods at various times since the most recent fire from a database of volumes of sediment deposited by a combination of debris flows and sediment-laden floods with no time limit since the most recent fire (n = 344). A subset of this database was used to develop an “emergency assessment model” for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by debris flows within two years of a fire (n = 92). Prior to developing the models, 32 volumes of sediment, and related parameters for watershed morphology, burn severity and rainfall conditions were retained to independently validate the long-term model. Ten of these volumes of sediment were deposited by debris flows within two years of a fire and were used to validate the emergency assessment model. The models were validated by comparing predicted and measured volumes of sediment. These validations were also performed for previously developed models and identify that the models developed here best predict volumes of sediment for burned watersheds in comparison to previously developed models.

Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

2017-12-01

Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

Economic valuation of flood mitigation services: A case study from the Otter Creek, VT.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galford, G. L.; Ricketts, T.; Bryan, K. L.; ONeil-Dunne, J.; Polasky, S.

2014-12-01

The ecosystem services provided by wetlands are widely recognized but difficult to quantify. In particular, estimating the effect of landcover and land use on downstream flood outcomes remains challenging, but is increasingly important in light of climate change predictions of increased precipitation in many areas. Economic valuation can help incorporate ecosystem services into decisions and enable communities to plan for climate and flood resiliency. Here we estimate the economic value of Otter Creek wetlands for Middlebury, VT in mitigating the flood that followed Tropical Storm Irene, as well as for ten historic floods. Observationally, hydrographs above and below the wetlands in the case of each storm indicated the wetlands functioned as a temporary reservoir, slowing the delivery of water to Middlebury. We compare observed floods, based on Middlebury's hydrograph, with simulated floods for scenarios without wetlands. To simulate these "without wetlands" scenarios, we assume the same volume of water was delivered to Middlebury, but in a shorter time pulse similar to a hydrograph upstream of the wetlands. For scenarios with and without wetlands, we map the spatial extent of flooding using LiDAR digital elevation data. We then estimate flood depth at each affected building, and calculate monetary losses as a function of the flood depth and house value using established depth damage relationships. For example, we expect damages equal to 20% of the houses value for a flood depth of two feet in a two-story home with a basement. We define the value of flood mitigation services as the difference in damages between the with and without wetlands scenario, and find that the Otter Creek wetlands reduced flood damage in Middlebury by 88% following Hurricane Irene. Using the 10 additional historic floods, we estimate an ongoing mean value of $400,000 in avoided damages per year. Economic impacts of this magnitude stress the importance of wetland conservation and warrant the consideration of ecosystem services in land use decisions. Our study indicates that here and elsewhere, green infrastructure may have to potential to increase the resilience of communities to projected changes in climate.

Floods of September 2010 in Southern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Christopher A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Mitton, Gregory B.; Kruse, Gregory A.

2011-01-01

During September 22-24, 2010, heavy rainfall ranging from 3 inches to more than 10 inches caused severe flooding across southern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions, where summer rainfall totals were as high as 20 inches, exceeding the historical average by more than 4 inches. Widespread flooding that occurred as a result of the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of hundreds of residents, and damages in excess of 64 million dollars to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, 21 counties in southern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at nine U.S. Geological Survey and three Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 27 U.S. Geological Survey and 5 Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages and 5 ungaged sites. Flood-peak streamflows in 2010 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.2 percent (recurrence interval greater than 500 years) at 7 streamgages and less than 1 percent (recurrence interval greater than 100 years) at 5 streamgages and 4 ungaged sites. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Faribault along the Cannon and Straight Rivers, Owatonna along the Straight River and Maple Creek, Pine Island along the North Branch and Middle Fork Zumbro River, and Zumbro Falls along the Zumbro River. The nearby communities of Hammond, Henderson, Millville, Oronoco, Pipestone, and Rapidan also received extensive flooding and damage but were not surveyed for high-water marks. Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for the four most severely affected communities were constructed in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with the highest resolution digital elevation model data available. The flood maps and profiles show the extent and height of flooding through the communities and can be used for flood response and recovery efforts by local, county, State, and Federal agencies.

A Collaborative Approach to Flood Early Warning Systems In South East Westmoreland, Jamaica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyman, T. A.

2015-12-01

Jamaica is prone to climatic, tectonic and technological hazards, with climatic hazards being the most prevalent. Specifically, flood events from cyclonic activity are the most common and widespread. Jamaica also experiences frequent flash floods, usually with insufficient lead time to enact efficient and targeted responses. On average, there is at least one disastrous flood every four years in Jamaica, and from 1800 to 2003 fifty-four major floods took place, causing 273 fatalities and economic losses of over US2 billion. Notably, the 1979 flood event in Western Jamaica caused 41 deaths and economic losses of US 27 Million, and which also has a 50 year return period. To date, no Flood Warning System exists in Western Jamaica and there are limited rain and river gauges. Additionally, responses to climatic events within South-East Westmoreland communities are ad hoc, with little coordination. Many of the hazard responses have been reactive and some stakeholders have delayed to their detriment.[1] The use of Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) to address such challenges is thus an option being considered by the community associations. The Rio Cobre FEWS in the parish of St. Catherine serves as a best practice example of community driven flood warning systems in Jamaica. This is because of the collaborative approach to flood risk, strengthened by institutional arrangements between the Meteorological Service, Water Resources Authority, Office of Disaster Management, Scientists and residents of the surrounding communities. The Community Associations in South-East Westmoreland are thus desirous of implementing a FEWS similar to the Rio Cobre FEWS. This paper thus aims to analyse the implementation process in terms of key stakeholders involved, governance approach and the socio-economic impact of a collaborative approach on infrastructure and livelihoods, in the case of future flooding events. [1] (especially in the case of Hurricane Ivan 2004)

33 CFR 208.82 - Hetch Hetchy, Cherry Valley, and Don Pedro Dams and Reservoirs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... flood control all as follows: (a) Storage space in Don Pedro Reservoir shall be kept available for flood-control purposes in accordance with the Flood-Control Storage Reservation Diagram currently in force for... section. The Flood-Control Storage Reservation Diagram in force as of the promulgation of this section is...

33 CFR 208.82 - Hetch Hetchy, Cherry Valley, and Don Pedro Dams and Reservoirs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... flood control all as follows: (a) Storage space in Don Pedro Reservoir shall be kept available for flood-control purposes in accordance with the Flood-Control Storage Reservation Diagram currently in force for... section. The Flood-Control Storage Reservation Diagram in force as of the promulgation of this section is...

The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; van den Hurk, Bart; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Traditionally, flood risk management has focused on long-term flood protection measures. However, many countries are often not able to afford hard infrastructure that provides sufficient safety levels due to the high investment costs. As a consequence, they rely more on post disaster response and timely warning systems. Most early warning systems have predominantly focused on precipitation as the main predictive factor, having usually lead times of hours or days. However, other variables could also play a role. For instance, anomalous positive water storage, soil saturation and evapotranspiration are physical factors that may influence the length of the flood build-up period. This period can vary from some days to several months before the event and it is particularly important in flood risk management since longer flood warning lead times during this period could result in better flood preparation actions. This study addresses how the antecedent conditions of historical reported flood events over the period 1980 to 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa relate to flood generation. The seasonal-scale conditions are reflected in the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which is calculated using monthly precipitation and temperature data and accounts for the wetness/dryness of an area. Antecedent conditions are separated into a) a short term 'weather-scale' period (0-7 days) and b) a 'seasonal-scale' period (up to 6 months) before the flood event in such a way that they do not overlap. Total 7-day precipitation, which is based on daily meteorological data, was used to evaluate the short-term weather-scale conditions. Using a pair of coordinates, derived from the NatCatSERVICE database on global flood losses, each flood event is positioned on a 0.5°x 0.5° grid cell. The antecedent SPEI conditions of the two periods and their joint influence in flood generation are compared to the same period conditions of the other years of the dataset. First results revealed that many floods were preceded by high SPEI for several months before the flooding event, showing that the area was saturated with a long lead-time. Those that were not preceded by high SPEI had very extreme short-term precipitation that caused the flood event. Furthermore, the importance of seasonal-scale conditions is quantified, which in turn might help humanitarian organizations and decision-makers extend the period of the preventive flood risk management planning.

The Future of Public Education in New Orleans. After Katrina: Rebuilding Opportunity and Equity into the "New" New Orleans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Paul; Hannaway, Jane

2006-01-01

Long before the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina or the chaos of evacuation, New Orleans' social infrastructure was failing. News coverage of the overcrowded Superdome and the city's flooded streets exposed the poverty and vulnerability of many residents, especially African Americans. As New Orleans begins to rebuild, can the city avoid the mistakes…

Threats to cross-border wildlife linkages in the Sky Islands Wildlands Network

Treesearch

Kim Vacariu

2005-01-01

One of the greatest challenges facing conservationists in the Sky Islands region is finding a realistic means to maintain historic travel routes for wide-ranging species crossing the United States-Mexico border. This challenge is made difficult due to the ongoing efforts by the Federal government to install additional security infrastructure to stem the flood of...

Novel flood risk assessment framework for rapid decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valyrakis, Manousos; Koursari, Eftychia; Solley, Mark

2016-04-01

The impacts of catastrophic flooding, have significantly increased over the last few decades. This is due to primarily the increased urbanisation in ever-expanding mega-cities as well as due to the intensification both in magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events. Herein a novel conceptual framework is presented that incorporates the use of real-time information to inform and update low dimensionality hydraulic models, to allow for rapid decision making towards preventing loss of life and safeguarding critical infrastructure. In particular, a case study from the recent UK floods in the area of Whitesands (Dumfries), is presented to demonstrate the utility of this approach. It is demonstrated that effectively combining a wealth of readily available qualitative information (such as crowdsourced visual documentation or using live data from sensing techniques), with existing quantitative data, can help appropriately update hydraulic models and reduce modelling uncertainties in future flood risk assessments. This approach is even more useful in cases where hydraulic models are limited, do not exist or were not needed before unpredicted dynamic modifications to the river system took place (for example in the case of reduced or eliminated hydraulic capacity due to blockages). The low computational cost and rapid assessment this framework offers, render it promising for innovating in flood management.

Assessment of the landslide and flood risks in São Paulo City, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, Bianca; Listo, Fabrízio

2010-05-01

In Brazilian cities, especially during summer, the landslides and floods cause disaster and economic losses. Aricanduva basin is one of the most critical in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (RMSP), where many types of morphodynamic processes occur. This is the largest river basin in São Paulo City. The current situation is characterized by intense urbanization, soil sealing and consequent reduction of soil infiltration, increasing the frequency of flood events in this area. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to map risk areas of landslides and floods in the sub-basin Limoeiro, located in the head of the Aricanduva basin. For mapping the risk areas, we prepared a record field to floods and landslides, based on several studies. Initially, it were identified the natural indicators (vegetation, topography, surface cover and drainage) and anthropogenic (urban pattern, soil cover, building types, occupation density, road conditions, infrastructure, drainage systems, distance between houses and slope, at the top and base, and the drainage channel). On the second step of this research, we identified the evidences of mass movements (scars, cracks, subsidence, trees, poles and inclined walls). Thus, on the basis of this analysis it was possible to define the risk probability: R1 (low or no risk), R2 (moderate), R3 (high) and, R4 (very high). Subsequently, by means of oblique photographs (taken from helicopter flight) it was possible to define risk areas in the basin. In all the sectors identified, were recorded approximately 903 urban settlements. The results showed that from the 25 sectors of risk, 14 sectors (56%) presented landslide risk and 11 (44%), flood risk. Of the sectors that showed landslide risk areas, 21% have very high probability (R4), 21% high (R3), 29% moderate (R2) and 29% low (R1). The sectors at flood risk presented 45% of very high probability (R4), 10% high (R3), 18% moderate (R2) and 27% low (R1). There is large presence of sediments from landslides, debris and remnants of buildings. The drainage systems are precarious and there is runoff on the surface and sewage pipes on soil surface. Some houses were built without keeping safe distance from the top and bottom of the slope, increasing landslide risk. Others were built very close to the stream. There are cracks in the houses and walls and trees inclined by mass movements and riverbank erosion. In general, the urban occupation, after deforesting, characterized by land fragmentation and by settlements without urban infrastructure, occurred in the terrain less favorable to the occupation, where a natural susceptibility to landslides and flood processes exists. Thus, we believe that this mapping can help the identification of the active processes (landslides and floods) and the assessment of risk areas. Therefore, these maps can be used by public administration on identifying areas more appropriate to urban occupation.

risk factor Inn (INNrisk) - transdisciplinary analysis of the 2005 flood in the province of Tyrol, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleewein, Klaus; Pfurtscheller, Clemens; Borsdorf, Axel

2010-05-01

The transdisciplinary project INNrisk, in collaboration with public risk and disaster management, investigates the severe floods of 22nd and 23rd of August, 2005, and their effects within the federal province of Tyrol. The inundation and accompanying processes (e.g. debris flows, log jams, underwashing of infrastructure) caused by the river Inn and its tributaries created a dangerous situation for Tyrol. The overall economic loss of direct assets is said to amount to ca. 500 million Euros. Climate change has basically been causing a statistical increase of damaging floods within the Alpine Space in recent decades while increasing vulnerability at the same time. The expansion of settlements is one factor in the threat to large numbers of people and growing economic losses. However, the disasters of the last decade provide an opportunity for analysing the flood process in terms of natural-science and geographical aspects as well as in terms of economic and statistical ones. This should lead to a better understanding of triggers and effects in those areas where humans are active and form the basis for mitigation and adaptation strategies. The results of such analyses represent valuable information for public risk and disaster management, particularly in presenting the effects on public and private households. The INNrisk project primarily aims to assess the framework conditions in systemic-legal terms and to analyse human actions during the floods in relation to various plans and the damage potentials resulting from them. The assessed losses depend to a great extent on the actions taken during the emergency and on flood operations by the public emergency management and local fire departments, which are in charge of floods and related processes in the case of Austria. Assessment will be carried out by analysing a database of series of human actions for the duration of the emergeny and increased risk. The project also strives to arrive at a macro- and mesoeconomic assessment of the damages by category (infrastructure, buildings, vehicles, etc.) and sector, as well as gauging potential positive effects on the regional economy. It can be assumed that the main beneficiaries of natural hazard processes in Alpine regions are the building and construction industry, transportation businesses and their suppliers. For this part of the project, a georeferenced database will be designed to get an idea of spatial distribution, loss patterns and local specifics compared with natural scientific parameters of the 2005 flood. An overall analysis serves to identify potential improvements within public disaster management and to sketch damage limitation strategies. The project results are of great value, not just for damage prevention measures against future Inn floods, which are likely to occur more frequently and in greater intensity as a result of global warming, but also for other rivers in the Alps. The results of this research may form the basis for developing effective adaptation strategies to climate change and the resulting potential threats to river valleys.

33 CFR 209.300 - Flood control regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Flood control regulations. 209..., DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURE § 209.300 Flood control regulations. (a) Regulations for the operation and maintenance of local flood protection works approved by the Secretary of the Army under the...

A New Approach to Flood Protection Design and Riparian Management

Treesearch

Philip B. Williams; Mitchell L. Swanson

1989-01-01

Conventional engineering methods of flood control design focus narrowly on the efficient conveyance of water, with little regard for environmental resource planning and natural geomorphic processes. Consequently, flood control projects are often environmentally disastrous, expensive to maintain, and even inadequate to control floods. In addition, maintenance programs...

Climate change and its impact on water infrastructure: the case of Alcala de Henares (Spain) and Mexico City (Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naranjo, M.; Tortajada, C.

2012-04-01

Climate change and its possible impacts on precipitation are still a matter of controversy due to lack of data as well as models which are considered reliable. Even though the science of climate change has advanced significantly in recent years, many uncertainties still prevail, ranging from reliable prediction of extreme river flow events to downscaling of rainfall to smaller planning areas. That is, present knowledge is still insufficient to understand and accurately predict how global changes, climate change one of them, may affect precipitation and streamflows over specific geographical units. In terms of planning and investment in urban areas, where more than 50 percent of the population live at present, freshwater supply and flood risk management have to be considered on long-term basis. This includes development of water infrastructure for drinking water supply and drainage as well as flood control which responds to the needs of the growing populations and their economies. Impacts of climate change are slow over time and take place over thousands of years. However, their study is relatively recent, mostly in terms of impacts on the hydrological cycle and therefore in terms of run-off. In the case of urban centres, the rationale is that governments will have to adapt the water infrastructure according to the expected changes and thus have to plan for them. For example, in the case of Mexico City, the way the drainage system was designed 100 years ago is very different from the way it would be done at present and the way it would be planned in about 50 years time. In the case of the city of Alcalá de Henares in the region of Madrid, the analysis of precipitations has shown a slight tendency towards a wet period from the decade of the 60´s. Due to this tendency, the calculations for the design of water infrastructures have remained virtually unchanged. In the case of this specific city, there is no indication that there will be dramatic or rapid changes in terms of precipitation in the coming years. In the case of Mexico City, studies regarding precipitation have shown a trend toward a wetter period from the decade of the 50's. Nevertheless, there are no evidences that there will be a drastic change in terms of precipitation patterns. In these two specific cities, studies carried out show that adaptation measures that emerged long time ago have been satisfactory. Nevertheless, these measures have been the result of many other changes (urban change, population growth, etc), and not only climate change. In any case, floods affect almost every city in the world and they will not disappear due to its complex nature. Adaptation measures should thus take into consideration multiple aspects such as broader policy areas, institutional frameworks, management practices, human resources, etc., which affect the whole spectrum of water uses in terms of quantity and quality as well as availability and demands for all uses and users.

How to deal with subsidence in the Dutch delta?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stouthamer, Esther; Erkens, Gilles

2017-04-01

In many deltas worldwide subsidence still is an underestimated problem, while the threat posed by land subsidence to low-lying urbanizing and urbanized deltas exceeds the threat of sea-level rise induced by climate change. Human-induced subsidence is driven by the extraction of hydrocarbons and groundwater, drainage of phreatic groundwater, and loading by buildings and infrastructure. The consequences of subsidence are increased flood risk and flood water depth, rising groundwater levels relative to the land surface, land loss, damage to buildings and infrastructure, and salinization of ground and surface water.. The Netherlands has a long history of subsidence. Large-scale drainage of the extensive peatlands in the western and northern parts of the Netherlands started approximately 1000 years ago as a result of rapid population growth. Subsidence is still ongoing due to (1) continuous drainage of the former peatland, which is now mainly in use as agricultural land and built-up area, (2) expansion of the built-up area and the infrastructural network, (3) salt mining and the extraction of gas in the northern Netherlands. Mitigating subsidence and its negative impacts requires understanding of the relative contribution of the drivers contributing to total subsidence, accurate predictions of land subsidence under different management scenarios, and its impacts. Such understanding enables the development of effective and sustainable management strategies. In the Netherlands, a lot of effort is put into water management aiming at amongst others the protection against floods and the ensuring agricultural activities, but a specific policy focusing on subsidence is lacking. The development of strategies to cope with subsidence is very challenging, because (1) the exact contribution of different drivers of subsidence to total subsidence is spatially different within the Netherlands, (2) there is no single problem owner, which makes it difficult to recognize this a common societal issue that should be tackled, and (3) it requires an integrated approach involving technical knowledge on contributors to subsidence, water management, governance arrangements, the legislative framework, socio-economic developments and spatial planning. To develop a sustainable solution to subsidence, we propose an approach including: (1) monitoring of surface elevation and drivers of subsidence, (2) scenario studies using coupled state-of-the-art 3D geological, hydrological and subsidence numerical models , and (3) a national database and model infrastructure. The next step is to carry out (4) a societal cost-benefit analysis and (5) to optimize governance arrangements and the legislative framework enabling the (6) implementation of measures. The realization of these requirements and the implementation of the resulting management strategies requires a joint effort of the national research institutes, including universities, and the involved local, and regional governmental organizations controlled by the national government. The research institutes should be responsible for developing monitoring strategies, generating the data and databases and developing the numerical models, governance arrangements and the legislative framework. The governmental organizations have the important responsibility for putting subsidence on their agendas, facilitating the research institutes and the implementation of governance arrangements and legislative framework enabling the implementation of effective measures.

Safety in the Chemical Laboratory: Flood Control.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pollard, Bruce D.

1983-01-01

Describes events leading to a flood in the Wehr Chemistry Laboratory at Marquette University, discussing steps taken to minimize damage upon discovery. Analyzes the problem of flooding in the chemical laboratory and outlines seven steps of flood control: prevention; minimization; early detection; stopping the flood; evaluation; clean-up; and…

33 CFR 203.42 - Inspection of non-Federal flood control works.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... PROCEDURES Rehabilitation Assistance for Flood Control Works Damaged by Flood or Coastal Storm: The Corps... standards and is capable of providing the intended degree of flood protection. An Acceptable or Minimally...

Insurance data as way to evaluate the performance of a sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS) in Augustenborg, Malmö

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sörensen, Johanna; Emilsson, Tobias

2017-04-01

Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) has been put forward as a concept to improve stormwater management in urban areas. The damage reduction due to reduced flooding and storm water detention during extreme events is one of many important features of SUDS. As extreme events are rare, few assessments have earlier been made to evaluate the risk reduction. So far, most assessments have been done by hydraulic modelling, rather than analyses based on data from real flood events. In 2014, Malmö was hit with an extreme rainfall event which led to severe flooding in most parts of the city. This event gave an opportunity to evaluate the efficiency of SUDS during extreme events. In this study, flood claim data were analysed to evaluate flood risk reduction by the SUDS system in Augustenborg. Flood claim data were collected from both an insurance company, as well as the water utility company of Malmö for 5 neighbourhoods in close proximity in Malmö. The study uses the Augustenborg neighbourhood as an example of a retrofitted neighbourhood with an open SUDS. Augustenborg (Malmö, Sweden) was retrofitted 15 years ago using a combination of hard infrastructure and naturebased solutions, to alleviate basement flooding, to reduce combined sewer overflows (CSO) and to increase the ecological and aesthetical values of the area. The introduction of ponds, channels and green roofs dramatically changed the appearance of the area and the more or less regular floods were stopped. Augustenborg and its sustainable drainage system was compared with five similar neighbourhoods nearby. The long-term development of reported insurance claims in the selected neighbourhoods showed a reduction of flooding in Augustenborg compared to the nearby areas. Pre- and post-installation data showed a direct effect of the refurbishment with SUDS. Even though a few properties were flooded in Augustenborg, it was shown that the SUDS performed successfully during the extreme storm event that was the most severe flooding in Malmö in modern history. In conclusion, the SUDS in Augustenborg, Malmö, has been efficient in flood reduction during minor as well as severe flood events.

Remote Sensing of Surficial Process Responses to Extreme Meteorological Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brakenridge, G. Robert

1997-01-01

Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events are associated with changing environmental means. Such events are important in human affairs, and can also be investigated by orbital remote sensing. During the course of this project, we applied ERS-1, ERS-2, Radarsat, and an airborne sensor (AIRSAR-TOPSAR) to measure flood extents, flood water surface profiles, and flood depths. We established a World Wide Web site (the Dartmouth Flood Observatory) for publishing remote sensing-based maps of contemporary floods worldwide; this is also an online "active archive" that presently constitutes the only global compilation of extreme flood events. We prepared an article for EOS concerning SAR imaging of the Mississippi Valley flood; an article for the International Journal of Remote Sensing on measurement of a river flood wave using ERS-2, began work on an article (since completed and published) on the Flood Observatory for a Geoscience Information Society Proceedings volume, and presented lectures at several Geol. Soc. of America Natl. Meetings, an Assoc. of Amer. Geographers Natl. Meeting, and a Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium (all on SAR remote sensing of the Mississippi Valley flood). We expanded in-house modeling capabilities by installing the latest version of the Army Corps of Engineers RMA two-dimensional hydraulics software and BYU Engineering Graphics Lab's Surface Water Modeling System (finite elements based pre- and post-processors for RMA work) and also added watershed modeling software. We are presently comparing the results of the 2-d flow models with SAR image data. The grant also supported several important upgrades of pc-based remote sensing infrastructure at Dartmouth. During work on this grant, we collaborated with several workers at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Remote Sensing/GIS laboratory (for flood inundation mapping and modeling; particularly of the Illinois River using the AIRSAR/TOPSAR/ERS-2 combined data), with Dr. Karen Prestegaard at the University of Maryland (geomorphological responses to the extreme 1993 flood along the Raccoon drainage in central Iowa), and with Mr Tim Scrom of the Albany National Weather Service River Forecast Center (initial planning for the use of Radarsat and ERS-2 for flood warning). The work thus initiated with this proposal is continuing.

Raising awareness of the importance of engineering protections against floods with "Flood-o-poly" v.2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valyrakis, Manousos; Cheng, Ming

2017-04-01

This study presents the results of a survey focusing on the use of a new fit for purpose designed city in a sand-box model, namely "Flood-o-poly" version 2, which is building on the success of the previous model. "Flood-o-poly" has been successfully presented to thousands of students of all ages in the School of Engineering Open days (University of Glasgow), Widening Participation, Glasgow Science Festival, Glasgow Science Museum and Engineering Hydraulics classes and Design projects, over the last four years. The new design involves a new and extended 3D scaled model that accurately replicates the topography of a city along with its rivers, towards demonstrating the impacts of flooding (induced artificially in the scaled physical model via the use of small water pumps). "Flood-o-poly" is a highly visual and well popularized engineering outreach project (developed from the applicant at the University of Glasgow), which has already been extensively used to showcase the detrimental impacts of flooding, for both the natural ecosystems and the build infrastructure alike (see https://twitter.com/WaterEngLab/status/758270564561784832 on Twitter and https://youtu.be/H5oThT6QaTc on Youtube). This involves a highly interactive session where the students simulate the scenarios of "urbanization" (by placing more buildings on the flood-planes) and "climate change" where more extreme flow rates have to be routed through the river. The project demonstrates how this design can benefit the cohorts of the 3rd and 4rth year Civil Engineering undergraduate students, the students attending the School's Open days, Widening Participation Days, Glasgow Science Festival and Glasgow Science Museum events. "Flood-o-poly" focuses on personalizing the student experience with regard to flood impacts and promotes the need for resilient and sustainable flood protection designs. Further, using novel presentation and student-centered technologies, the students are given a truly unique experience and appreciate engineering principles and design approaches, as well as appreciate contemporary and optimal (under certain realistic constraints) flood protections that can be used to protect "Flood-o-poly" from extreme hydrologic events.

Observational evidence on the effects of mega-fires on the frequency of hydrogeomorphic hazards. The case of the Peloponnese fires of 2007 in Greece.

PubMed

Diakakis, M; Nikolopoulos, E I; Mavroulis, S; Vassilakis, E; Korakaki, E

2017-08-15

Even though rare, mega-fires raging during very dry and windy conditions, record catastrophic impacts on infrastructure, the environment and human life, as well as extremely high suppression and rehabilitation costs. Apart from the direct consequences, mega-fires induce long-term effects in the geomorphological and hydrological processes, influencing environmental factors that in turn can affect the occurrence of other natural hazards, such as floods and mass movement phenomena. This work focuses on the forest fire of 2007 in Peloponnese, Greece that to date corresponds to the largest fire in the country's record that burnt 1773km 2 , causing 78 fatalities and very significant damages in property and infrastructure. Specifically, this work examines the occurrence of flood and mass movement phenomena, before and after this mega-fire and analyses different influencing factors to investigate the degree to which the 2007 fire and/or other parameters have affected their frequency. Observational evidence based on several data sources collected during the period 1989-2016 show that the 2007 fire has contributed to an increase of average flood and mass movement events frequency by approximately 3.3 and 5.6 times respectively. Fire affected areas record a substantial increase in the occurrence of both phenomena, presenting a noticeably stronger increase compared to neighbouring areas that have not been affected. Examination of the monthly occurrence of events showed an increase even in months of the year were rainfall intensity presented decreasing trends. Although no major land use changes has been identified and chlorophyll is shown to recover 2years after the fire incident, differences on the type of vegetation as tall forest has been substituted with lower vegetation are considered significant drivers for the observed increase in flood and mass movement frequency in the fire affected areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flexibility in Flood Management Design: Proactive Planning Under Climate Change Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2015-12-01

This paper presents an innovative, value-enhancing procedure for effective planning and design of long-lived flood management infrastructure given uncertain future flooding threats due to climate change. Designing infrastructure that can be adapted over time is a method to safeguard the efficacy of current design decisions given uncertainty about rates and future impacts of climate change. This paper explores the value of embedding "options" in a physical structure, where an option is the right but not the obligation to do something at a later date (e.g. over-dimensioning a floodwall foundation now facilitates a future height addition in response to observed increases in sea level; building of extra pump bays in a pumping station now enables the addition of pumping capacity whenever increased precipitation warrants an expansion.) The proposed procedure couples a simulation model that captures future climate induced changes to the hydrologic operating environment of a structure, with an economic model that estimates the lifetime economic performance of alternative investments. The economic model uses Real "In" Options analysis, a type of cash flow analysis that quantifies the implicit value of options and the flexibility they provide. This procedure is demonstrated using replacement planning for the multi-functional pumping station IJmuiden on the North Sea Canal in the Netherlands. Flexibility in design decisions is modelled, varying the size and specific options included in the new structure. Results indicate that the incorporation of options within the structural design has the potential to improve its economic performance, as compared to more traditional, "build it once and build it big" designs where flexibility is not an explicit design criterion. The added value resulting from the incorporation of flexibility varies with the range of future conditions considered, as well as the options examined. This procedure could be applied more broadly to explore investment strategies for the design of other flood management structures.

Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation: a case study in the catchments of the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Chang, J.; Guo, A.

2017-12-01

Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on flood control systems. Given this focus, a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework focusing on flood control and sediment transport is proposed in the current work. Additionally, the conditional probabilities of occurrence of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is used to evaluate the uncertainties of univariate and bivariate hydrological risk. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The results indicate that (1) 2-day and 3-day consecutive rainfall are highly correlated with the annual maximum flood discharge (AMF) in UCX and UCH, respectively; and (2) univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are successfully estimated. Sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the AMF, exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Most importantly, there was considerable sampling uncertainty in the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk analysis, which would greatly challenge measures of future flood mitigation. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

Effect of Sampling Period on Flood Frequency Distributions in the Susquehanna Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargar, M.; Beighley, R. E.

2010-12-01

Flooding is a devastating natural hazard that claims many human lives and significantly impact regional economies each year. Given the magnitude of flooding impacts, significant resources are dedicated to the development of forecasting models for early warning and evacuation planning, construction of flood defenses (levees/dams) to limit flooding, and the design of civil infrastructure (bridges, culverts, storm sewers) to convey flood flows without failing. In all these cases, it is particularly important to understand the potential flooding risk in terms of both recurrence interval (i.e., return period) and magnitude. Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is a form of risk analysis used to extrapolate the return periods of floods beyond the gauged record. The technique involves using observed annual peak flow discharge data to calculate statistical information such as mean values, standard deviations, skewness, and recurrence intervals. Since discharge data for most catchments have been collected for periods of time less than 100 years, the estimation of the design discharge requires a degree of extrapolation. This study focuses on the assessment and modifications of flood frequency based discharges for sites with limited sampling periods. Here, limited sampling period is intended to capture two issues: (1) limited number of observations to adequately capture the flood frequency signal (i.e., minimum number of annual peaks needed) and (2) climate variability (i.e., sampling period contains primarily “wet” or “dry” periods only). Total of 34 gauges (more than 70 years of data) spread throughout the Susquehanna River basin (71,000 sq km) were used to investigate the impact of sampling period on flood frequency distributions. Data subsets ranging from 10 years to the total number of years available were created from the data for each gauging station. To estimate the flood frequency, the Log Pearson Type III distribution was fit to the logarithms of instantaneous annual peak flows following Bulletin 17B guidelines of the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. The resulting flood frequencies from these subsets were compared to the results from the entire record at each gauge. Based on the analysis, the minimum number of years required to obtain a reasonable flood frequency distribution was determined for each gauge. In addition, a method to adjust flood frequency distribution at a given gauging station with limited data based on other locations with longer periods of records was developed.

iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system simulations will help to develop a seamless integration with the boundary systems in the service-gap area with new insights into our scientific understanding of such complex systems. A visualization system is being developed to allow stake holders and the community to have access to the flood forecasting for their region with sufficient lead time.

Proactive routing mutation against stealthy Distributed Denial of Service attacks: metrics, modeling, and analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duan, Qi; Al-Shaer, Ehab; Chatterjee, Samrat

The Infrastructure Distributed Denial of Service (IDDoS) attacks continue to be one of the most devastating challenges facing cyber systems. The new generation of IDDoS attacks exploit the inherent weakness of cyber infrastructure including deterministic nature of routes, skew distribution of flows, and Internet ossification to discover the network critical links and launch highly stealthy flooding attacks that are not observable at the victim end. In this paper, first, we propose a new metric to quantitatively measure the potential susceptibility of any arbitrary target server or domain to stealthy IDDoS attacks, and es- timate the impact of such susceptibility onmore » enterprises. Second, we develop a proactive route mutation technique to minimize the susceptibility to these attacks by dynamically changing the flow paths periodically to invalidate the adversary knowledge about the network and avoid targeted critical links. Our proposed approach actively changes these network paths while satisfying security and qualify of service requirements. We present an integrated approach of proactive route mutation that combines both infrastructure-based mutation that is based on reconfiguration of switches and routers, and middle-box approach that uses an overlay of end-point proxies to construct a virtual network path free of critical links to reach a destination. We implemented the proactive path mutation technique on a Software Defined Network using the OpendDaylight controller to demonstrate a feasible deployment of this approach. Our evaluation validates the correctness, effectiveness, and scalability of the proposed approaches.« less

Is anthropogenic land-subsidence a possible driver of riverine flood-risk dynamics? A casa study in Ravenna, Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio

2017-04-01

Can man-induced or man-accelerated land-subsidence modify significantly riverine flood-hazard in flood-prone areas? We address this question by investigating the possible changes in flood hazard over one of the most prominent cases of anthropogenic land-subsidence in Italy, a 77-km2 area around the city of Ravenna. The subsidence rate in the area, naturally in the order of a few mm/year, increased dramatically after World War II as a consequence of groundwater pumping and natural gas extraction, exceeding 110 mm/year and resulting in cumulative drops larger than 1.5 m in roughly 100 years. The Montone-Ronco and Fiumi Uniti rivers flow in the southern portion of the study area, which is protected from frequent flooding by levees. We simulated the inundation events associated with different potential levee-breaching configurations by using a fully two-dimensional hydrodynamic model constructed on the basis of four different floodplain geometries: the current topography and a reconstruction of ground elevations before anthropogenic land-subsidence, both neglecting man-made infrastructures, and the current and historical topographies completed with a representation of road and railway embankments and main land-reclamation channels. Our results show that flood-hazard changes due to anthropogenic land-subsidence are limited (e.g. significant changes in simulated values of water depth, h, velocity, v, and intensity, i=hṡv, are detected in roughly 1%, 2% and 8% of the flood-prone area, in this order) and overwhelmingly lower than those determined by the construction of road and railway embankments or artificial channel networks (20%, 14% and 48% of the flood-prone area, respectively).

Flood-hazard analysis of four headwater streams draining the Argonne National Laboratory property, DuPage County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soong, David T.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Straub, Timothy D.; Zeeb, Hannah L.

2016-11-22

Results of a flood-hazard analysis conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Argonne National Laboratory, for four headwater streams within the Argonne National Laboratory property indicate that the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods would cause multiple roads to be overtopped. Results indicate that most of the effects on the infrastructure would be from flooding of Freund Brook. Flooding on the Northeast and Southeast Drainage Ways would be limited to overtopping of one road crossing for each of those streams. The Northwest Drainage Way would be the least affected with flooding expected to occur in open grass or forested areas.The Argonne Site Sustainability Plan outlined the development of hydrologic and hydraulic models and the creation of flood-plain maps of the existing site conditions as a first step in addressing resiliency to possible climate change impacts as required by Executive Order 13653 “Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change.” The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN is the hydrologic model used in the study, and the Hydrologic Engineering Center‒River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) is the hydraulic model. The model results were verified by comparing simulated water-surface elevations to observed water-surface elevations measured at a network of five crest-stage gages on the four study streams. The comparison between crest-stage gage and simulated elevations resulted in an average absolute difference of 0.06 feet and a maximum difference of 0.19 feet.In addition to the flood-hazard model development and mapping, a qualitative stream assessment was conducted to evaluate stream channel and substrate conditions in the study reaches. This information can be used to evaluate erosion potential.

Near real time Forensic Disaster Analysis of the central European flood in June 2013 in Germany: Impact and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazai, Bijan; Bessel, Tina; Möhrle, Stella; Dittrich, André; Schröter, Kai; Mühr, Bernhard; Elmer, Florian; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Trieselmann, Werner; Kunz, Michael

2014-05-01

Within its current research activity on near real time Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA), researchers from the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) aim to identify major risk drivers and to understand the root causes of disaster and infer the implications for disaster mitigation. A key component of this activity is the development of rapid assessment tools which allow for a science based estimate of disaster impacts. The central European flood in June 2013 caused in Germany severe damage to buildings, infrastructure and agricultural lands and has had a great impact on people, transportation and the economy. In many areas thousands of people were evacuated. Electrical grid and local water supply utilities failed during the floods. Furthermore, traffic was disrupted in the interregional transportation network including federal highways and long distance railways. CEDIM analysed the impact and management of the flood event within an FDA activity. An analysis on the amount and spatial distribution of flood-related Twitter messages in Germany revealed a high interest in the flood in the social media. Furthermore, an analysis of the resilience of selected affected areas in Germany has been carried out to assess the impact of the flood on the district level. The resilience indicator is based on social, economic and institutional indicators which are supplemented with information on the number of people evacuated and transportation disruptions. Combined with the magnitude of the event, an index is calculated that allows for a rapid initial but preliminary estimate of the flood impact. Results show high resilience of the administrative districts along the Danube while heavy impacts are seen along the Mulde and Elbe.

Kosi Floods 2008: Devastation, Displacement and Migration Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Prashant; Ahlawat, Monica

2017-04-01

The massive Kosi River floods of August 2008 caused unprecedented loss to lives, livelihoods, infrastructure and property in north-eastern Bihar. The five flood-affected districts (Araria, Madhepura, Purnia, Saharsa and Supaul) are among the poorest districts in India. In 2011, during the last national Census, the total population of the five districts was about 11 million. About 1,000 villages in these five districts were affected and nearly three million people were displaced. Displaced people had to face various kinds of problems like lack of livelihood, loss of house and property, lack of health and hygiene etc. Posts flooding, because of constrained livelihood opportunities, depressed economy, and probability of future flooding event, many families have migrated to other parts of the country. This study was done to find out how displacement as well as migration has affected their lives, how they have coped with it, and what the government response to this disaster was. Both primary as well as secondary data have been used for this study. Secondary data was collected from government offices and websites, news articles and satellite images. Satellite images were used to detect the change in course of river and how much this change in course affected the displacement pattern. For this purpose the satellite images of affected area from an earlier time period and during the floods were taken and their impact was studied. Primary data has been collected through questionnaire and field survey and has been used to understand migration experience of affected population. With the help of these data, the paper analyses the 2008 Kosi flood as a socio-ecological regime shift and explains migration as a societal response to such a shift. Keywords: Floods, Displacement, Satellite Images, Socio-Ecological Regime Shift, Migration

Extreme flood event reconstruction spanning the last century in the El Bibane Lagoon (southeastern Tunisia): a multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Affouri, Aida; Dezileau, Laurent; Kallel, Nejib

2017-06-01

Climate models project that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will increase the frequency and the severity of some extreme weather events. The flood events represent a major risk for populations and infrastructures settled on coastal lowlands. Recent studies of lagoon sediments have enhanced our knowledge on extreme hydrological events such as palaeo-storms and on their relation with climate change over the last millennium. However, few studies have been undertaken to reconstruct past flood events from lagoon sediments. Here, the past flood activity was investigated using a multi-proxy approach combining sedimentological and geochemical analysis of surfaces sediments from a southeastern Tunisian catchment in order to trace the origin of sediment deposits in the El Bibane Lagoon. Three sediment sources were identified: marine, fluvial and aeolian. When applying this multi-proxy approach on core BL12-10, recovered from the El Bibane Lagoon, we can see that finer material, a high content of the clay and silt, and a high content of the elemental ratios (Fe / Ca and Ti / Ca) characterise the sedimentological signature of the palaeo-flood levels identified in the lagoonal sequence. For the last century, which is the period covered by the BL12-10 short core, three palaeo-flood events were identified. The age of these flood events have been determined by 210Pb and 137Cs chronology and give ages of AD 1995 ± 6, 1970 ± 9 and 1945 ± 9. These results show a good temporal correlation with historical flood events recorded in southern Tunisia in the last century (AD 1932, 1969, 1979 and 1995). Our finding suggests that reconstruction of the history of the hydrological extreme events during the upper Holocene is possible in this location through the use of the sedimentary archives.

Improving vulnerability models: lessons learned from a comparison between flood and earthquake assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies to further explore cross-hazard studies.

Evaluating the Implications of Climate Phenomenon Indices in Supporting Reservoir Operation Using the Artificial Neural Network and Decision-Tree Methods: A Case Study on Trinity Lake in Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, T.; Akbari Asanjan, A.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

2016-12-01

Reservoirs are fundamental human-built infrastructures that collect, store, and deliver fresh surface water in a timely manner for all kinds of purposes, including residential and industrial water supply, flood control, hydropower, and irrigation, etc. Efficient reservoir operation requires that policy makers and operators understand how reservoir inflows, available storage, and discharges are changing under different climatic conditions. Over the last decade, the uses of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI & DM) techniques in assisting reservoir management and seasonal forecasts have been increasing. Therefore, in this study, two distinct AI & DM methods, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF), are employed and compared with respect to their capabilities of predicting monthly reservoir inflow, managing storage, and scheduling reservoir releases. A case study on Trinity Lake in northern California is conducted using long-term (over 50 years) reservoir operation records and 17 known climate phenomenon indices, i.e. PDO and ENSO, etc., as predictors. Results show that (1) both ANN and RF are capable of providing reasonable monthly reservoir storage, inflow, and outflow prediction with satisfactory statistics, and (2) climate phenomenon indices are useful in assisting monthly or seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow and outflow. It is also found that reservoir storage has a consistent high autocorrelation effect, while inflow and outflow are more likely to be influenced by climate conditions. Using a Gini diversity index, RF method identifies that the reservoir discharges are associated with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and reservoir inflows are influenced by multiple climate phenomenon indices during different seasons. Furthermore, results also show that, during the winter season, reservoir discharges are controlled by the storage level for flood-control purposes, while, during the summer season, the flood-control operation is not as significant as that in the winter. With regard to the suitability of the AI & DM methods in support of reservoir operation, the Decision Tree method is suggested for future reservoir studies because of its transparency and non-parametric features over the "black-box" style ANN regression model.

Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2011-01-01

California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p <= 0. 01) for all the three GCMs in the period 2051-2099. The frequency of flood events above selected historical thresholds also increases under projections from CNRM CM3 and NCAR PCM1 climate models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

2013 Flood Waters "Flush" Pharmaceuticals and other Contaminants of Emerging Concern into the Water and Sediment of the South Platte River, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battaglin, W. A.; Bradley, P. M.; Paschke, S.; Plumlee, G. S.; Kimbrough, R.

2016-12-01

In September 2013, heavy rainfall caused severe flooding in Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO) and environs extending downstream into the main stem of the South Platte River. In ROMO, flooding damaged infrastructure and local roads. In the tributary canyons, flooding damaged homes, septic systems, and roads. On the plains, flooding damaged several wastewater treatment plants. The occurrence and fate of pharmaceuticals and other contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in streams during flood conditions is poorly understood. We assessed the occurrence and fate of CECs in this flood by collecting water samples (post-peak flow) from 4 headwaters sites in ROMO, 7 sites on tributaries to the South Platte River, and 6 sites on the main stem of the South Platte; and by collecting flood sediment samples (post-flood depositional) from 14 sites on tributaries and 10 sites on the main stem. Water samples were analysed for 110 pharmaceuticals and 69 wastewater indicators. Sediment samples were analysed for 57 wastewater indicators. Concentrations and numbers of CECs detected in water increased markedly as floodwaters moved downstream and some were not diluted despite the large flow increases in downstream reaches of the affected rivers. For example, in the Cache la Poudre River in ROMO, no pharmaceuticals and 1 wastewater indicator compound (camphor) were detected. At Greeley, the Cache la Poudre was transporting 19 pharmaceuticals [total concentration of 0.69 parts-per-billion (ppb)] and 22 wastewater indicators (total concentration of 2.81 ppb). In the South Platte downstream from Greeley, 24 pharmaceuticals (total concentration of 1.47 ppb) and 24 wastewater indicators (total concentration of 2.35 ppb) were detected. Some CECs such as the combustion products pyrene, fluoranthene, and benzo(a)pyrene were detected only at sub-ppb concentrations in water, but were detected at concentrations in the hundreds of ppb in flood sediment samples.

Tacking Flood Risk from Watersheds using a Natural Flood Risk Management Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reaney, S. M.; Pearson, C.; Barber, N.; Fraser, A.

2017-12-01

In the UK, flood risk management is moving beyond solely mitigating at the point of impact in towns and key infrastructure to tackle problem at source through a range of landscape based intervention measures. This natural flood risk management (NFM) approach has been trailed within a range of catchments in the UK and is moving towards being adopted as a key part of flood risk management. The approach offers advantages including lower cost and co-benefits for water quality and habitat creation. However, for an agency or group wishing to implement NFM within a catchment, there are two key questions that need to be addressed: Where in the catchment to place the measures? And how many measures are needed to be effective? With this toolkit, these questions are assessed with a two-stage workflow. First, SCIMAP-Flood gives a risk based mapping of likely locations that contribute to the flood peak. This tool uses information on land cover, hydrological connectivity, flood generating rainfall patterns and hydrological travel time distributions to impacted communities. The presented example applies the tool to the River Eden catchment, UK, with 5m grid resolution and hence provide sub-field scale information at the landscape extent. SCIMAP-Flood identifies sub-catchments where physically based catchment hydrological simulation models can be applied to test different NFM based mitigation measures. In this example, the CRUM3 catchment hydrological model has been applied within an uncertainty framework to consider the effectiveness of soil compaction reduction and large woody debris dams within a sub-catchment. It was found that large scale soil aeration to reduce soil compaction levels throughout the catchment is probably the most useful natural flood management measure for this catchment. NFM has potential for wide-spread application and these tools help to ensure that the measures are correctly designed and the scheme performance can be quantitatively assessed and predicted.

Using raster and vector data to identify objects for classify in flood risk. A case study: Raciborz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porczek, Mariusz; Rucińska, Dorota; Lewiński, Stanisław

2018-01-01

The severe flood of 1997, which seriously affected Polish, Czech and German territories, gave impetus to research into the management of flood-prone areas. The material losses caused by the "Flood of the Millennium" totalled billions of Polish zloty. The extent of the disaster and of infrastructure repair costs changed the attitude of many branches of the economy, and of science. This is the direct result of consideration of the introduction of changes into spatial management and crisis management. At the same time, it focused the interest of many who were trained in analysing the vulnerability of land-use features to natural disasters such as floods. Research into the spatial distribution of geographic environmental features susceptible to flood in the Odra valley was conducted at the Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies of the University of Warsaw using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This study seeks to examine the possibility of adapting vector and raster data and using them for land-use classification in the context of risk of flood and inundation damage. The analysed area of the city and surrounding area of Raciborz, on the upper Odra River, is a case study for identifying objects and lands susceptible to natural hazards based on publicly available satellite databases of the highest resolution, which is a very important factor in the quality of further risk analyses for applied use. The objective of the research was to create a 10×10-m-pixel raster network using raster data made available by ESA (Copernicus Land Monitoring Service) and vector data from Open Street Map.

Compound flooding: examples, methods, and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.

2017-12-01

When different climatic extremes occur simultaneously or in close succession, the impacts to the environment, built infrastructure and society at large are often significantly escalated. These events are collectively referred to as "compound" events. Although they are typically regarded as highly "surprising" when they occur, the dependencies and multi-scale nature of many climate phenomena mean that such events occur much more likely than might be expected by random chance alone. However, despite their high impacts, compound extremes are not, or only poorly covered in current risk analysis frameworks and policy agendas. Floods in particular, which are among the most dangerous and costly natural hazards, are rarely a function of just one driver. Rather, they often arise through the joint occurrence of different source mechanisms. This can include oceanographic drivers such as tides, storm surges, or waves, as well as hydrologic drivers such as rainfall runoff (pluvial) or river discharge (fluvial). Often, two or more of these flood drivers affect the same region and are correlated with each other, which needs to be accounted for in flood risk assessments. This presentation will briefly introduce the different types of compound flooding along with recent examples from around the globe where those high impact events led to substantial damages and loss of lives. A broad overview will be provided of existing statistical modelling tools to identify and simulate dependencies between flood drivers, for example when calculating joint probabilities. Finally, some of the most pressing challenges in developing improved strategies to assess and mitigate the risks of climatic compound extremes, and compound flooding in particular, will be discussed.

Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform.

PubMed

Arrighi, Chiara; Rossi, Lauro; Trasforini, Eva; Rudari, Roberto; Ferraris, Luca; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Castelli, Fabio

2018-02-01

Flood risk mitigation usually requires a significant investment of public resources and cost-effectiveness should be ensured. The assessment of the benefits of hydraulic works requires the quantification of (i) flood risk in absence of measures, (ii) risk in presence of mitigation works, (iii) investments to achieve acceptable residual risk. In this work a building-scale is adopted to estimate direct tangible flood losses to several building classes (e.g. residential, industrial, commercial, etc.) and respective contents, exploiting various sources of public open data in a GIS environment. The impact simulations for assigned flood hazard scenarios are computed through the RASOR platform which allows for an extensive characterization of the properties and their vulnerability through libraries of stage-damage curves. Recovery and replacement costs are estimated based on insurance data, market values and socio-economic proxies. The methodology is applied to the case study of Florence (Italy) where a system of retention basins upstream of the city is under construction to reduce flood risk. Current flood risk in the study area (70 km 2 ) is about 170 Mio euros per year without accounting for people, infrastructures, cultural heritage and vehicles at risk. The monetary investment in the retention basins is paid off in about 5 years. However, the results show that although hydraulic works are cost-effective, a significant residual risk has to be managed and the achievement of the desired level of acceptable risk would require about 1 billion euros of investments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of major dams on hydrology through the drainage network of the Sacramento River basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, M.B.

2007-01-01

This paper reports basinwide patterns of hydrograph alteration via statistical and graphical analysis from a network of long-term streamflow gauges located various distances downstream of major dams and confluences in the Sacramento River basin in California, USA. Streamflow data from 10 gauging stations downstream of major dams were divided into hydrologic series corresponding to the periods before and after dam construction. Pre- and post-dam flows were compared with respect to hydrograph characteristics representing frequency, magnitude and shape: annual flood peak, annual flow trough, annual flood volume, time to flood peak, flood drawdown time and interarrival time. The use of such a suite of characteristics within a statistical and graphical framework allows for generalising distinct strategies of flood control operation that can be identified without any a priori knowledge of operations rules. Dam operation is highly dependent on the ratio of reservoir capacity to annual flood volume (impounded runoff index). Dams with high values of this index generally completely cut off flood peaks thus reducing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. Those with low values conduct early and late flow releases to extend the hydrograph, increasing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. The analyses reveal minimal flood control benefits from foothill dams in the lower Sacramento River (i.e. dissipation of the down-valley flood control signal). The lower part of the basin is instead reliant on a weir and bypass system to control lowland flooding. Data from a control gauge (i.e. with no upstream dams) suggest a background signature of global climate change expressed as shortened flood hydrograph falling limbs and lengthened flood interarrival times at low exceedence probabilities. This research has implications for flood control, water resource management, aquatic and riparian ecosystems and for rehabilitation strategies involving flow alteration and/or manipulation of sediment supplies. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Disastrous torrential floods in mountain areas in Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilovic, Z.

2009-04-01

In Serbia, the relief is predominantly hilly and mountainous, intersected with numerous rivers. The greatest number of watercourses are small torrents; however the proportionally large rivers also have a distinctive torrential character. The highest parts of the catchments are at the altitudes above 1500 m, while their confluences are at the altitudes of 200 - 300 m. The catchment and channel slopes are extremely steep. So, as the initial natural preconditions are satisfied, torrential floods are the consequence. Although the Južna Morava catchments were regulated by erosion control works, during the last decades there were numerous torrential floods. Some of the floods had disastrous proportions, not recorded in Serbia or in Europe. The flood of river Vlasina in 1988 was presented to the professional public several times. This flood was not an isolated case. Many large-scale torrential floods occurred in Serbia from 1994 to 2007. As there were floods also in 2007, the causes of the recorded floods had to be analysed. The analysis pointed out a series of scenarios which were the causes of disastrous torrential floods, and also the disadvantages of the actual system of torrent and erosion control. Special attention was focused on the floods which resulted from sudden snow melting. This paper will present the results of the analyses of the extreme torrential floods of the rivers Nišava and Vlasina. Key words: Flood, torrents, torrent control, erosion control

Floods in mountain environments: A synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoffel, Markus; Wyżga, Bartłomiej; Marston, Richard A.

2016-11-01

Floods are a crucial agent of geomorphic change in the channels and valley floors of mountains watercourses. At the same time, they can be highly damaging to property, infrastructure, and life. Because of their high energy, mountain watercourses are highly vulnerable to environmental changes affecting their catchments and channels. Many factors have modified and frequently still tend to modify the environmental conditions in mountain areas, with impacts on geomorphic processes and the frequency, magnitude, and timing of floods in mountain watercourses. The ongoing climate changes vary between regions but may affect floods in mountain areas in many ways. In many mountain regions of Europe, widespread afforestation took place over the twentieth century, considerably increasing the amounts of large wood delivered to the channels and the likelihood of jamming bridges. At the same time, deforestation continues in other mountain areas, accelerating runoff and amplifying the magnitude and frequency of floods in foreland areas. In many countries, in-channel gravel mining has been a common practice during recent decades; the resultant deficit of bed material in the affected channels may suddenly manifest during flood events, resulting in the failure of scoured bridges or catastrophic channel widening. During the past century many rivers in mountain and foreland areas incised deeply; the resultant loss of floodplain water storage has decreased attenuation of flood waves, hence increasing flood hazard to downstream river reaches. On the other hand, a large amount of recent river restoration activities worldwide may provide examples of beneficial changes to flood risk, attained as a result of increased channel storage or reestablished floodplain water storage. Relations between geomorphic processes and floods operate in both directions, which means that changes in flood probability or the character of floods (e.g., increased wood load) may significantly modify the morphology of mountain rivers, but morphological changes of rivers can also affect hydrological properties of floods and the associated risk for societies. This paper provides a review of research in the field of floods in mountain environments and puts the papers of this special issue dedicated to the same topic into context. It also provides insight into innovative studies, methods, or emerging aspects of the relations between environmental changes, geomorphic processes, and the occurrence of floods in mountain rivers.

Developments in remote sensing technology enable more detailed urban flood risk analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denniss, A.; Tewkesbury, A.

2009-04-01

Spaceborne remote sensors have been allowing us to build up a profile of planet earth for many years. With each new satellite launched we see the capabilities improve: new bands of data, higher resolution imagery, the ability to derive better elevation information. The combination of this geospatial data to create land cover and usage maps, all help inform catastrophe modelling systems. From Landsat 30m resolution to 2.44m QuickBird multispectral imagery; from 1m radar data collected by TerraSAR-X which enables rapid tracking of the rise and fall of a flood event, and will shortly have a twin satellite launched enabling elevation data creation; we are spoilt for choice in available data. However, just what is cost effective? It is always a question of choosing the appropriate level of input data detail for modelling, depending on the value of the risk. In the summer of 2007, the cost of the flooding in the UK was approximately £3bn and affected over 58,000 homes and businesses. When it comes to flood risk, we have traditionally considered rising river levels and surge tides, but with climate change and variations in our own construction behaviour, there are other factors to be taken into account. During those summer 2007 events, the Environment Agency suggested that around 70% of the properties damaged were the result of pluvial flooding, where high localised rainfall events overload localised drainage infrastructure, causing widespread flooding of properties and infrastructure. To create a risk model that is able to simulate such an event requires much more accurate source data than can be provided from satellite or radar. As these flood events cause considerable damage within relatively small, complex urban environments, therefore new high resolution remote sensing techniques have to be applied to better model these events. Detailed terrain data of England and Wales, plus cities in Scotland, have been produced by combining terrain measurements from the latest digital airborne sensors, both optical and lidar, to produce the input layer for surface water flood modelling. A national flood map product has been created. The new product utilises sophisticated modelling techniques, perfected over many years, which harness graphical processing power. This product will prove particularly valuable for risk assessment decision support within insurance/reinsurance, property/environmental, utilities, risk management and government agencies. However, it is not just the ground elevation that determines the behaviour of surface water. By combining height information (surface and terrain) with high resolution aerial photography and colour infrared imagery, a high definition land cover mapping dataset (LandBase) is being produced, which provides a precise measure of sealed versus non sealed surface. This will allows even more sophisticated modelling of flood scenarios. Thus, the value of airborne survey data can be demonstrated by flood risk analysis down to individual addresses in urban areas. However for some risks, an even more detailed survey may be justified. In order to achieve this, Infoterra is testing new 360˚ mobile lidar technology. Collecting lidar data from a moving vehicle allows each street to be mapped in very high detail, allowing precise information about the location, size and shape of features such as kerbstones, gullies, road camber and building threshold level to be captured quickly and accurately. These data can then be used to model the problem of overland flood risk at the scale of individual properties. Whilst at present it might be impractical to undertake such detailed modelling for all properties, these techniques can certainly be used to improve the flood risk analysis of key locations. This paper will demonstrate how these new high resolution remote sensing techniques can be combined to provide a new resolution of detail to aid urban flood modelling.

Internationally coordinated multi-mission planning is now critical to sustain the space-based rainfall observations needed for managing floods globally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, Patrick M.; Chaney, Nathaniel W.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Ferringer, Matthew P.; Wood, Eric F.

2015-02-01

At present 4 of 10 dedicated rainfall observing satellite systems have exceeded their design life, some by more than a decade. Here, we show operational implications for flood management of a ‘collapse’ of space-based rainfall observing infrastructure as well as the high-value opportunities for a globally coordinated portfolio of satellite missions and data services. Results show that the current portfolio of rainfall missions fails to meet operational data needs for flood management, even when assuming a perfectly coordinated data product from all current rainfall-focused missions (i.e., the full portfolio). In the full portfolio, satellite-based rainfall data deficits vary across the globe and may preclude climate adaptation in locations vulnerable to increasing flood risks. Moreover, removing satellites that are currently beyond their design life (i.e., the reduced portfolio) dramatically increases data deficits globally and could cause entire high intensity flood events to be unobserved. Recovery from the reduced portfolio is possible with internationally coordinated replenishment of as few as 2 of the 4 satellite systems beyond their design life, yielding rainfall data coverages that outperform the current full portfolio (i.e., an optimized portfolio of eight satellites can outperform ten satellites). This work demonstrates the potential for internationally coordinated satellite replenishment and data services to substantially enhance the cost-effectiveness, sustainability and operational value of space-based rainfall observations in managing evolving flood risks.

Civil protection and Damaging Hydrogeological Events: comparative analysis of the 2000 and 2015 events in Calabria (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrucci, Olga; Caloiero, Tommaso; Aurora Pasqua, Angela; Perrotta, Piero; Russo, Luigi; Tansi, Carlo

2017-11-01

Calabria (southern Italy) is a flood prone region, due to both its rough orography and fast hydrologic response of most watersheds. During the rainy season, intense rain affects the region, triggering floods and mass movements that cause economic damage and fatalities. This work presents a methodological approach to perform the comparative analysis of two events affecting the same area at a distance of 15 years, by collecting all the qualitative and quantitative features useful to describe both rain and damage. The aim is to understand if similar meteorological events affecting the same area can have different outcomes in terms of damage. The first event occurred between 8 and 10 September 2000, damaged 109 out of 409 municipalities of the region and killed 13 people in a campsite due to a flood. The second event, which occurred between 30 October and 1 November 2015, damaged 79 municipalities, and killed a man due to a flood. The comparative analysis highlights that, despite the exceptionality of triggering daily rain was higher in the 2015 event, the damage caused by the 2000 event to both infrastructures and belongings was higher, and it was strongly increased due to the 13 flood victims. We concluded that, in the 2015 event, the management of pre-event phases, with the issuing of meteorological alert, and the emergency management, with the preventive evacuation of people in hazardous situations due to landslides or floods, contributed to reduce the number of victims.

Changes in Benefits of Flood Protection Standard under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, W. H.; Koirala, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

2014-12-01

Understanding potential risk of river flooding under future climate scenarios might be helpful for developing risk management strategies (including mitigation, adaptation). Such analyses are typically performed at the macro scales (e.g., regional, global) where the climate model output could support (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014). To understand the potential benefits of infrastructure upgrading as part of climate adaptation strategies, it is also informative to understand the potential impact of different flood protection standards (in terms of return periods) on global river flooding under climate change. In this study, we use a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and CMIP5 model output (historic and future periods) to drive a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011) and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the potential risk of river flooding and changes in the benefits of flood protection standard (e.g., 100-year flood of the baseline period) from the past into the future (represented by the representative concentration pathways). In this presentation, we show our preliminary results. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S., N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726.

The USGS National Streamflow Information Program and the importance of preserving long-term streamgages

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Norris, J. Michael; Lent, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Long-term streamflow information is critical for use in several water-related areas that are important to humans and wildlife, including water management, computation of flood and drought flows for water infrastructure, and analysis of climate-related trends. Specific uses are many and diverse and range from informing water rights across state and international boundaries to designing dams and bridges.

The influence of controlled floods on fine sediment storage in debris fan-affected canyons of the Colorado River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Erich R.; Grams, Paul E.; Schmidt, John C.; Hazel, Joseph E.; Alexander, Jason S.; Kaplinski, Matt

2014-01-01

Prior to the construction of large dams on the Green and Colorado Rivers, annual floods aggraded sandbars in lateral flow-recirculation eddies with fine sediment scoured from the bed and delivered from upstream. Flows greater than normal dam operations may be used to mimic this process in an attempt to increase time-averaged sandbar size. These controlled floods may rebuild sandbars, but sediment deficit conditions downstream from the dams restrict the frequency that controlled floods produce beneficial results. Here, we integrate complimentary, long-term monitoring data sets from the Colorado River in Marble and Grand Canyons downstream from Glen Canyon dam and the Green River in the Canyon of Lodore downstream from Flaming Gorge dam. Since the mid-1990s, several controlled floods have occurred in these canyon rivers. These controlled floods scour fine sediment from the bed and build sandbars in eddies, thus increasing channel relief. These changes are short-lived, however, as interflood dam operations erode sandbars within several months to years. Controlled flood response and interflood changes in bed elevation are more variable in Marble Canyon and Grand Canyon, likely reflecting more variable fine sediment supply and stronger transience in channel bed sediment storage. Despite these differences, neither system shows a trend in fine-sediment storage during the period in which controlled floods were monitored. These results demonstrate that controlled floods build eddy sandbars and increase channel relief for short interflood periods, and this response may be typical in other dam-influenced canyon rivers. The degree to which these features persist depends on the frequency of controlled floods, but careful consideration of sediment supply is necessary to avoid increasing the long-term sediment deficit.

The Challenge of Communicating Flood Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthew, R.

2015-12-01

Worldwide, natural hazard risks, and especially flood risk, are increasing dramatically as populations grow, infrastructure deteriorates, and climate change worsens. Street level modeling technologies may help decision makers and the general public understand risk and explore options for building resilience. But there are challenges in linking powerful visualization technologies to people in ways that they trust, support and can use. Technology adoption depends on a host of social and psychological factors—for example, how have past experiences shaped perceptions? Where do people currently turn for information? Who do they trust? Who do they see as responsible for implementing response and resilience measures? What do people think about climate change and sea level rise? What are the values that will motivate them to act? The answers vary from place to place and group to group. Visualization technologies that are responsive to this type of information may be most effective. Through household level survey data collected at sites in California and Mexico, we identify factors that may help in designing effective flood risk communication tools.

Evaluation of the best fit distribution for partial duration series of daily rainfall in Madinah, western Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alahmadi, F.; Rahman, N. A.; Abdulrazzak, M.

2014-09-01

Rainfall frequency analysis is an essential tool for the design of water related infrastructure. It can be used to predict future flood magnitudes for a given magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. This study analyses the application of rainfall partial duration series (PDS) in the vast growing urban Madinah city located in the western part of Saudi Arabia. Different statistical distributions were applied (i.e. Normal, Log Normal, Extreme Value type I, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type III, Log Pearson Type III) and their distribution parameters were estimated using L-moments methods. Also, different selection criteria models are applied, e.g. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Anderson-Darling Criterion (ADC). The analysis indicated the advantage of Generalized Extreme Value as the best fit statistical distribution for Madinah partial duration daily rainfall series. The outcome of such an evaluation can contribute toward better design criteria for flood management, especially flood protection measures.

Modelling Glacial Lake Outburst Floods: Key Considerations and Challenges Posed By Climatic Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westoby, M.

2014-12-01

The number and size of moraine-dammed supraglacial and proglacial lakes is increasing as a result of contemporary climatic change. Moraine-dammed lakes are capable of impounding volumes of water in excess of 107 m3, and often represent a very real threat to downstream communities and infrastructure, should the bounding moraine fail and produce a catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Modelling the individual components of a GLOF, including a triggering event, the complex dam-breaching process and downstream propagation of the flood is incredibly challenging, not least because direct observation and instrumentation of such high-magnitude flows is virtually impossible. We briefly review the current state-of-the-art in numerical GLOF modelling, with a focus on the theoretical and computational challenges associated with reconstructing or predicting GLOF dynamics in the face of rates of cryospheric change that have no historical precedent, as well as various implications for researchers and professionals tasked with the production of hazard maps and disaster mitigation strategies.

Is there a need for government interventions to adapt energy infrastructures to climate change? A German case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groth, Markus; Cortekar, Jörg

2015-04-01

The option of adapting to climate change is becoming more and more important in climate change policy. Hence, responding to climate change now involves both mitigation to address the cause and adaptation as a response to already ongoing and expected changes. These changes also have relevance for the current and future energy sector in Germany. An energy sector that in the course of the German Energiewende also has to deal with a fundamental shift in energy supply from fossil fuel to renewable energies in the next decades. Thereby it needs to be considered that the energy sector is one critical infrastructure in the European Union that needs to be protected. Critical infrastructures can be defined as organisations or facilities of special importance for the country and its people where failure or functional impairment would lead to severe supply bottlenecks, significant disturbance of public order or other dramatic consequences. Regarding the adaptation to climate change, the main question is, whether adaptation options will be implemented voluntarily by companies or not. This will be the case, when the measure is considered a private good and is economically beneficial. If, on the contrary, the measure is considered a public good, additional incentives are needed. Based on a synthesis of the current knowledge regarding the possible impacts of climate change on the German energy sector along its value-added chain, the paper points out, that the power distribution and the grid infrastructure is consistently attributed the highest vulnerability. Direct physical impacts and damages to the transmission and distribution grids, utility poles, power transformers, and relay stations are expected due to more intense extreme weather events like storms, floods or thunderstorms. Furthermore fundaments of utility poles can be eroded and relay stations or power transformers can be flooded, which might cause short circuits etc. Besides these impacts causing damage to the physical infrastructure, there might also occur efficiency losses in electricity transmission due to very high or very low temperatures. While vulnerabilities in power generation primarily result in efficiency losses, interferences on the grid level could cause power outages with cascade effects influencing other sectors of society and economy. The paper argues that these possible impacts of a changing climate should be taken into account in the upcoming infrastructure projects in the course of the Energiewende. Therefore governmental intervention - like legal obligations or incentives by the use of economic instruments - are for example justifiable regarding measures to adapt the grid infrastructure as a critical infrastructure that needs to be protected against current and future impacts of climate change.

Web Tools Streamline Climate Preparedness and Resilience Planning and Implementation for Water Resources Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Friedman, D.; Schechter, J.; Foley, P.; Mueller, C.; Baker, B.; Huber, M.; Veatch, W.

2016-12-01

Observed and projected impacts of climate change are pronounced on the hydrologic cycle because of the sensitivity of hydroclimatic variables to changes in temperature. Well-documented climate change impacts to the hydrologic cycle include increases in extreme heat conditions, coastal flooding, heavy precipitation, and drought frequency and magnitude, all of which can combine in surprising ways to pose regionally varying threats to public health and safety, ecosystem functions, and the economy. Climate preparedness and resilience activities are therefore necessary for water infrastructure which provides flood risk reduction, navigation, water supply, ecosystem restoration, and hydropower services. Because this water infrastructure entails long lifetimes, up to or beyond 100 years, and significant public investment, accurate and timely information about climate impacts over both the near-and far-term is required to plan and implement climate preparedness and resilience measures. Engineers are natural translators of science into actionable information to support this type of decision-making, because they understand both the important physical processes and the processes, laws, standards, and criteria required for the planning and design of public infrastructure. Though engineers are capable of the data management activities needed to ingest, transform, and prepare climate information for use in these decisions, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has chosen to emphasize analysis of information over data management. In doing so, the USACE is developing and using web tools with visualization capabilities to streamline climate preparedness and resilience planning and implementation while ensuring repeatable analytical results nationally. Examples discussed here include calculation of sea level change, including a comparison of mean sea level and other tidal statistics against scenarios of change; detection of abrupt and slowly varying nonstationarities in observed hydrologic data; and evaluations of projected flow frequency and duration that help to characterize future conditions and facilitate comparisons to observed conditions.

Landslides in the northern Colorado Front Range caused by rainfall, September 11-13, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Godt, Jonathan W.; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Kean, Jason W.; Baum, Rex L.; Jones, Eric S.; Harp, Edwin L.; Staley, Dennis M.; Barnhart, William D.

2014-01-01

During the second week of September 2013, nearly continuous rainfall caused widespread landslides and flooding in the northern Colorado Front Range. The combination of landslides and flooding was responsible for eight fatalities and caused extensive damage to buildings, highways, and infrastructure. Three fatalities were attributed to a fast moving type of landslide called debris flow. One fatality occurred in Jamestown, and two occurred in the community of Pinebrook Hills immediately west of the City of Boulder. All major canyon roads in the northern Front Range were periodically closed between September 11 and 13, 2013. Some canyon closures were caused by undercutting of roads by landslides and flooding, and some were caused by debris flows and rock slides that deposited material on road surfaces. Most of the canyon roads, with the exceptions of U.S. Highway 6 (Clear Creek Canyon), State Highway 46/Jefferson Co. Rd. 70 (Golden Gate Canyon), and Sunshine Canyon in Boulder County, remained closed at the end of September 2013. A review of historical records in Colorado indicates that this type of event, with widespread landslides and flooding occurring over a very large region, in such a short period of time, is rare.

The financial management of catastrophic flood risks in emerging-economy countries.

PubMed

Kunreuther, Howard C; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne

2003-06-01

This article examines the potential of pre- and post-disaster instruments for funding disaster response and recovery and for creating incentives for flood loss mitigation in countries with emerging or transition economies. As a concrete case, we discuss the disaster recovery arrangements following the 1997 flood disaster in Poland. We examine the advantages and limitations of hedging instruments, which are instruments for transferring the risk to investors either through insurance or capital market-based securities. We compare these mechanisms with financing instruments whereby the government sets aside funds prior to a disaster or taps its own funding sources after the event occurs. We show how hedging instruments can be designed to create incentives for the mitigation of damage to public infrastructure using the flood proofing of a water-treatment plant on the hypothetical Topping River as an illustrative example. We conclude that hedging instruments can be an attractive alternative to financing instruments that have been traditionally used in the poorer, emerging-economy countries to fund disaster recovery. Since very poor countries are likely to have difficulty paying the price of protection prior to a disaster, we suggest that international lending institutions consider innovations for subsidizing these payments.

Climate, orography and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persiano, Simone; Castellarin, Attilio; Salinas, Jose Luis; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

2016-05-01

The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review previously proposed reference procedures for design-flood estimation, such as national flood frequency models. Our study focuses on Triveneto, a broad geographical region in North-eastern Italy. A reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto is available from the Italian NCR research project "VA.PI.", which considered Triveneto as a single homogeneous region and developed a regional model using annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges that were collected up to the 1980s by the former Italian Hydrometeorological Service. We consider a very detailed AMS database that we recently compiled for 76 catchments located in Triveneto. All 76 study catchments are characterized in terms of several geomorphologic and climatic descriptors. The objective of our study is threefold: (1) to inspect climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime; (2) to verify the possible presence of changes in flood frequency regime by looking at changes in time of regional L-moments of annual maximum floods; (3) to develop an updated reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto by using a focused-pooling approach (i.e. Region of Influence, RoI). Our study leads to the following conclusions: (1) climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime in Triveneto are similar to the controls that were recently found in Europe; (2) a single year characterized by extreme floods can have a remarkable influence on regional flood frequency models and analyses for detecting possible changes in flood frequency regime; (3) no significant change was detected in the flood frequency regime, yet an update of the existing reference procedure for design flood estimation is highly recommended and we propose the RoI approach for properly representing climate and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto, which cannot be regarded as a single homogeneous region.

Robust Adaptation? Assessing the sensitivity of safety margins in flood defences to uncertainty in future simulations - a case study from Ireland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Bastola, Satish; Sweeney, John

2013-04-01

Climate change impact and adaptation assessments have traditionally adopted a 'top-down' scenario based approach, where information from different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and emission scenarios are employed to develop impacts led adaptation strategies. Due to the tradeoffs in the computational cost and need to include a wide range of GCMs for fuller characterization of uncertainties, scenarios are better used for sensitivity testing and adaptation options appraisal. One common approach to adaptation that has been defined as robust is the use of safety margins. In this work the sensitivity of safety margins that have been adopted by the agency responsible for flood risk management in Ireland, to the uncertainty in future projections are examined. The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk to climate change is assessed for four Irish catchments using a large number of GCMs (17) forced with three emissions scenarios (SRES A1B, A2, B1) as input to four hydrological models. Both uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ~20,000 annual maxima series. The sensitivity of design margins to the uncertainty space considered is visualised using risk response surfaces. The hydrological sensitivity is measured as the percentage change in flood peak for specified recurrence intervals. Results indicate that there is a considerable residual risk associated with allowances of +20% when uncertainties are accounted for and that the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greatest for more extreme, low frequency events with considerable implication for critical infrastructure, e.g., culverts, bridges, flood defences whose designs are normally associated with such return periods. Sensitivity results show that the impact of climate change is not as great for flood peaks with higher return periods. The average width of the uncertainty range and the size of the range for each catchment reveals that the uncertainties in low frequency events are greater than high frequency events. In addition, the uncertainty interval, estimated as the average width of the uncertainty range of flow for the five return periods, grows wider with a decrease in the runoff coefficient and wetness index of each catchment, both of which tend to increase the nonlinearity in the rainfall response. A key management question that emerges is the acceptability of residual risk where high exposure of vulnerable populations and/or critical infrastructure coincide with high costs of additional capacity in safety margins.

Thirty Years Later: Reflections of the Big Thompson Flood, Colorado, 1976 to 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarrett, R. D.; Costa, J. E.; Brunstein, F. C.; Quesenberry, C. A.; Vandas, S. J.; Capesius, J. P.; O'Neill, G. B.

2006-12-01

Thirty years ago, over 300 mm of rain fell in about 4 to 6 hours in the middle reaches of the Big Thompson River Basin during the devastating flash flood on July 31, 1976. The rainstorm produced flood discharges that exceeded 40 m3/s/km2. A peak discharge of 883 m3/s was estimated at the Big Thompson River near Drake streamflow-gaging station. The raging waters left 144 people dead, 250 injured, and over 800 people were evacuated by helicopter. Four-hundred eighteen homes and businesses were destroyed, as well as 438 automobiles, and damage to infrastructure left the canyon reachable only via helicopter. Total damage was estimated in excess of $116 million (2006 dollars). Natural hazards similar to the Big Thompson flood are rare, but the probability of a similar event hitting the Front Range, other parts of Colorado, or other parts of the Nation is real. Although much smaller in scale than the Big Thompson flood, several flash floods have happened during the monsoon in early July 2006 in the Colorado foothills that reemphasized the hazards associated with flash flooding. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts flood research to help understand and predict the magnitude and likelihood of large streamflow events such as the Big Thompson flood. A summary of hydrologic conditions of the 1976 flood, what the 1976 flood can teach us about flash floods, a description of some of the advances in USGS flood science as a consequence of this disaster, and lessons that we learned to help reduce loss of life from this extraordinary flash flood are discussed. In the 30 years since the Big Thompson flood, there have been important advances in streamflow monitoring and flood warning. The National Weather Service (NWS) NEXRAD radar allows real-time monitoring of precipitation in most places in the United States. The USGS currently (2006) operates about 7,250 real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the United States that are monitored by the USGS, the NWS, and emergency managers. When substantial flooding occurs, the USGS mobilizes personnel to collect streamflow data in affected areas. Streamflow data improve flood forecasting and provide data for flood-frequency analysis for floodplain management, design of structures located in floodplains, and related water studies. An important lesson learned is that nature provides environmental signs before and during floods that can help people avoid hazard areas. Important contributions to flood science as a result of the 1976 flood include development of paleoflood methods to interpret the preserved flood-plain stratigraphy to document the number, magnitude, and age of floods that occurred prior to streamflow monitoring. These methods and data on large floods can be used in many mountain-river systems to help us better understand flood hazards and plan for the future. For example, according to conventional flood-frequency analysis, the 1976 Big Thompson flood had a flood recurrence interval of about 100 years. However, paleoflood research indicated the 1976 flood was the largest in about the last 10,000 years in the basin and had a flood recurrence interval in excess of 1,000 years.

33 CFR 209.220 - Flood control regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... the purpose of coordinating the operation of the flood control features of reservoirs constructed... responsible for the maintenance and operation of the reservoir involved after a detailed study of the flood.... Regulations prescribed by the Secretary of the Army for the maintenance and operation of local flood...

33 CFR 209.220 - Flood control regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... the purpose of coordinating the operation of the flood control features of reservoirs constructed... responsible for the maintenance and operation of the reservoir involved after a detailed study of the flood.... Regulations prescribed by the Secretary of the Army for the maintenance and operation of local flood...